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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-14 | NY Rangers +136 v. St Louis Blues | Top | 3-2 | Win | 136 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The Rangers put together a surprising season to most as after a 3-6 start, they made it through the Eastern Conference playoffs with a chance to end their 20-year Stanley Cup drought but fell in five games to the Kings, three of those losses coming in overtime. Expectations are now high in New York and it is important to get off to a strong start. The line we are getting here is solid as the Rangers had the best road record in the Eastern Conference last season. St. Louis is coming off another disappointing season despite things looking good toward the end of the season. However, the Blues went on to lose their final six regular season games and have been eliminated in the opening round of the playoffs in each of the past two seasons to the defending Cup champion, despite holding 2-0 series leads. This one has a good chance at coming down to the netminders with the Rangers being in good shape. Henrik Lundqvist was 33-24-5 with a 2.36 GAA last season before making at least 40 saves in three Stanley Cup final games. On the other side, Brian Elliott takes over as the top goaltender after Ryan Miller's departure. Elliott, who got into 31 games as Miller's backup last season, had a save percentage of .922, hardly impressive. 10* (65) New York Rangers |
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10-09-14 | BYU +3.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
BYU got knocked off last Friday for the first time this season as it lost to Utah St. as a 21-point favorite. The Cougars have now dropped three straight games against the number, all as double-digit favorites but they are in a completely different role this Thursday. Speaking of losing, BYU has to deal with losing quarterback Taysom Hill for the season after he suffered a broken leg against the Aggies and it was all downhill from there as replacement Christian Stewart was horrible. Coming in non-prepared like that is tough for any quarterback but even though this week is a short week, Stewart at least will have taken reps with the first team so the adjustment will be a lot better now. Central Florida won last Thursday over Houston as it forced a late turnover to pull out the win and improve to 2-2 on the season. Now the Knights are sandwiched in-between two conference games and while playing under the Thursday night lights is big, they are not the better team here, even with Hill out. The quarterback situation in Central Florida is just as bas if not worse so the Knights are being forced to run which is the strength of the Cougars defense. We are getting a huge line edge here also as the loss of hill has adjusted this line by over 10 points which is simply too much. The Cougars are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games as regular season underdogs while going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The value is too hard to pass up here. 10* (103) BYU Cougars |
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10-08-14 | San Jose Sharks +120 v. Los Angeles Kings | Top | 4-0 | Win | 120 | 39 h 42 m | Show |
San Jose heads to Los Angeles to take on the Stanley Cup Champions Kings in the season opener for both sides. When it comes to the NHL and NBA, I typically go against the defending champions in their first game of the season because of all of the hoopla and distractions surrounding it. Banners are raised and rings are passed out so the actual hockey game plays second fiddle. When Los Angeles won the Stanley Cup in 2012, it opened the following season with the loss against the Blackhawks. The Sharks also have some added motivation here. They had home ice in the first round of the NHL playoffs last season against the Kings and built a 3-0 lead in the series by scoring 17 goals but then the wheels fell off as the offense managed only five goals over the final four games and they lost the series 4-3. The Kings became just the fourth team to win a best-of-seven series after losing the first three games. San Jose has won four straight season openers, two of which have come on the road. The Sharks were a very solid 22-15-4 on the road last regular season while the Kings were just 23-14-4 at home and that home record was the worst in the Western Conference of all playoff teams. Look for the Sharks to come in with a ton of energy and a ton of motivation and get a big payback win. 10* (5) San Jose Sharks |
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10-07-14 | Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
We have seen three low scoring games to start this series, all of which have easily stayed below the total but tonight could finally be the night we see the bats break out. There have been a total of 13 runs scored over the first three games which comes after the last five regular season matchups all going over the total and averaging 11.4 rpg. Now playoff baseball is definitely different but we are getting exceptional value here and in comparison, this is the same number as last night when two elite starters were on the mound and don't be surprised to see this number climb to 7 later in the day so betting it earlier would be better. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball for Washington and he has been pitching very well of late with a string of seven quality outings. He does have a 3.63 ERA on the road however which is certainly good but far from dominating. In two career postseason starts two years ago, he posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. The Giants counter with Ryan Vogelsong who has been up an down the entire season with just 15 of 32 starts resulting in quality outings. His numbers are definitely better at home but taking a look at his game log shows that only four of 16 home starts came against playoff teams and one of those came against Washington where he allowed six runs in six innings and overall, he has a 7.94 ERA in five career starts against Washington. The over is 5-1 in Vogelsong's last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. 10* Over (931) Washington Nationals/(931) San Francisco Giants |
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10-06-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals -102 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
The Cardinals were almost able to come home with a 2-0 series advantage but the Dodgers salvaged Game Two thanks to a Matt Kemp homerun in the bottom of the eighth inning. St. Louis has acquired the home field edge nonetheless which makes tonight crucial to possibly avoid going back to Los Angeles for a deciding Game Five. The Cardinals are 21 games over .500 at home while going 38-17 in their last 55 home games against teams with a winning record. St. Louis has been spot on when coming off a poor offensive performance as it is 11-1 in its last 12 after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. John Lackey takes the hill tonight for the Cardinals and he has been pitching a lot better after getting some extended rest for a dead arm. He has posted two straight quality starts and comes into this game with 10 days rest so he should be in peak form. This is his 17th playoff start so he has the experience this time of year and he's 6-5 with a 3.03 ERA in 104 playoff innings. Since coming to the Cardinals, he has a 2.38 ERA in five home starts, all St. Louis victories. The Dodgers counter with Hyun-Jin Ryu and there are some questions surrounding his health. He'll make his first start since being shut down after throwing just 27 pitches because of a shoulder issue on Sept. 12. The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last six home games against left-handed starters. 10* (922) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins UNDER 46 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
After last night's game that cruised over the total, primetime games in the NFL are on a 10-0 run going back to the Bears/49ers Sunday night game on September 14th. In those games, there has been an average of 55.8 ppg scored and the public is cleaning up. Linesmakers have been adjusting these totals to try and combat all of the over action coming in but it has yet to make a difference. We are seeing it here as well as this number is higher than it should be based on those past results and what the public is thinking here. Washington has gone over in three straight games with the most recent one coming 10 days ago in a primetime game for everyone to see. According to the talking heads on television, Seattle no longer has a defense that is dominant as it once was. The Seahawks are three games into the season and have faced three of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and taking nothing away from Kirk Cousins but he is not in that category. Seattle is still ranked sixth in total defense in the league and should be able to slow Washington down enough. The Redskins have allowed 37 and 45 points the last two games so that in itself is a trigger for over backers but last week was certainly a fluke no thanks to six turnovers while the week before, the Redskins were killed by penalties and a kickoff return for a touchdown. Washington is ninth in the NFL in total defense through four games and that will surprise a lot of people. The Under is 7-2 in the Seahawks last nine games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Under is 7-3 in the Redskins last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Under (477) Seattle Seahawks/(478) Washington Redskins |
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10-06-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +7.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
While I think the Seattle defense is not getting the credit it deserves based on what the media is blurting out, the same can be said for the Redskins defense. While they have allowed 82 points the last two weeks, the defense is not to blame on all of that. Six turnovers against the Giants last week led to 31 points and the four touchdowns were all on short fields including two from 24 and 22 yards. The Giants had the ball for close to 15 minutes more than the Redskins which led to more yards and the wearing out the Washington defense. Against the Eagles, they allowed just 379 yards but penalties and special teams hurt them there. They don't have to play a perfect game to succeed here but they just have to be better in other areas to help the defense. Kirk Cousins had a dreadful game last week, posting a 53.0 passer rating which came after putting up rating of 109.4 and 103.4 his first two games. Getting through the Seahawks defense will not be easy as it has en elite secondary so we should see more short passes and running from Washington which can shorten the game, keep Seattle off the field on offense and that benefits the underdog. The Redskins fall into a spectacular situation where we play on home underdogs of three points or more that are coming off a loss of 24 or more points. This situation is 31-11 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1980. Additionally, Washington is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit loss at home. While the public is all over the over yet again, it is also all over Seattle yet we have seen this line drop so the reverse line movement is on our side. 10* (478) Washington Redskins |
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10-05-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. New England Patriots +2 | Top | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 82 h 53 m | Show |
Anyone who watches ESPN or follows some of the other media outlets on Twitter has been told over and over again that the Patriots are done and Tom Brady is washed up. Clearly, things are not right in New England as it is now 2-2 following its shellacking at the hands of the Chiefs last Monday night. Brady is having his worst season statistically as he is still trying to work with some new personnel but there is no chance we will see him down for very long. New England opened as the favorite here and after everyone saw what happened Monday, it is now a home underdog for the first time since 2005. Cincinnati comes in at 3-0 and fresh off its bye week. The Bengals opened the season on the road at Baltimore but this is the first time they have had to travel since then. Being favored here is clearly an overadjustment and we can prove that based on their last game. Being a point favorite here would make them a seven-point favorite at home which is a half-point higher than what they were favored b y over the Titans in their last game. The Titans a half-point better than New England? I think not. Additionally, we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (476) New England Patriots |
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10-05-14 | NY Jets +7 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 49 m | Show |
This is the classic contrarian play in going against spread records as well as teams going in the opposite direction. The Jets opened the season with a win over the Raiders, which isn't saying much, but they have now lost three straight games to fall to 1-3 and 0-3-1 ATS. Overall, New York is outgaining opponents by an average of 74.7 ypg but the difference between wins and losses has been turnovers where it is -6 in turnover margin. After dropping its opening game in Arizona, San Diego has won three straight games and overall the Chargers are 4-0 against the number which has inflated this line a significant amount. They have been the opposite of New York when it comes to turnovers as the Chargers are +5 in turnover margin and they have not turned it over in three straight games. While the Jets have a significant edge in yardage margin, San Diego is just +26.3 ypg. Adding all of this up proves how much turnovers can affect a team, whether good or bad, and how much it can influence records and with that, public perception. The Jets have a positive situation on their side based on turnovers as we play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 134-81 ATS (62.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the point differential being +2 ppg favoring the play on team. 10* (473) New York Jets |
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10-05-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
We have seen the first two games of this series go over the total and with the series now shifting to Detroit, I think we see a lower scoring game on Sunday. While we saw 15 and 13 runs in the first two games, all it was were two innings that sent them over as Baltimore managed to score 12 runs total in the eighth inning in those games. This is obviously a must win game for Detroit and while the offense is powerful, it will come down to pitching and that has been lacking of late. And today, it is David Price that will have to be on his game which is a strong possibility. He has been up and down since coming over to the Tigers from Tampa Bay but he has been solid at home with the exception of a poor start against the Yankees. Baltimore is hitting just .248 against left-handers on the road and the under is 35-15-1 in the Orioles last 51 games against left-handed starters. Baltimore counters with Bud Norris who has had a very solid season with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 28 starts. His numbers are not as good on the road but the fact his team has a 2-0 lead in this series should keep him under control in his first postseason start. Detroit's offense has struggled down the stretch, averaging only 3.5 rpg over its last 11 games. The Under is 20-6 in the Orioles last 26 games as a road underdog. 10* Under (917) Baltimore Orioles/(918) Detroit Tigers |
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10-05-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Tennessee Titans -1 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -125 | 75 h 35 m | Show |
We lost with Tennessee last week as the Titans got crushed in Indianapolis but we will come back with them here this week After opening the season with a win at Kansas City, Tennessee has dropped three straight games all by 16 points or more. That makes this the perfect play on situation as we get line value with a team in desperate need of a victory. The schedule hasn't helped much as three of the first four games have all come on the road. The Titans will be getting Jake Locker back this week after a poor effort from Charlie Whitehurst against the Colts and that could make a big difference here. The Brown are 1-2 but have been involved in every game with the two losses coming on last second field goals. While the games have been close, Cleveland has yet to outgain any of its three opponents which does tell a different story. This is the first road game in a month for the Browns as they have played two in a row at home followed by their bye week. Tennessee is ranked 30th in scoring offense but this could be the breakout game against a poor Browns defense. The low offensive output favors the Titans in a solid situation as we play on teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after a loss by 21 or more points. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Tennessee Titans |
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10-05-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -10 | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 34 m | Show |
New Orleans is 1-3 and it is being written off by some of the media which is far from accurate. The Saints do have an uphill battle for sure but those three losses all came on the road so now the time comes to get back home and take advantage of the huge edge they have here. There is no doubt this is a must win game and it is even important as New Orleans has their bye next week and going into that 1-4 with a game at Detroit the following week spells disaster. Teams that are a touchdown or more at home the week before their bye are 35-9 ATS. Tampa Bay got into the win column last week with an upset at Pittsburgh in the final seconds. That was a huge win for the Buccaneers following their debacle at Atlanta 10 days before but I cannot see them hanging around here in what is their third straight road game. Tampa Bay has been outgained in all four games and by an average of 103.5 ypg as it brings in the 29th ranked scoring offense and 31st ranked scoring defense as well. The Saints thrive in these spots, going 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 260 or more passing ypg. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 102-56 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (460) New Orleans Saints |
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10-04-14 | Boise State -3 v. Nevada | Top | 51-46 | Win | 100 | 75 h 58 m | Show |
We played against Boise St. last Saturday and it worked out for us as the Broncos lost at Air Force as big favorites. The main reason they lost was that they committed seven turnovers and they were unable to work back from a 28-0 deficit. Boise St. outgained the Falcons 467-335 so while it was the better team on the day, it was not the better team on the scoreboard. All that does is set the Broncos up this week for one of our "misleading public reversals" and it gets even better. Nevada won last week at San Jose St. 21-10 but it was on the wrong side of the yardages as it was outgained by 190 total yards. The Wolf Pack were fortunate to win the turnover battle 3-0, one of which was returned for a touchdown. This adds to the Boise St. reversal and the two misleading scores help us immensely this week as we are catching a great number and one that is smaller than it should be. Looking at the history of this series and you will see that Nevada has covered the last five meetings but Boise St. won four of those and the spread wins were based on big lines, not like the one we have here. Boise St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse while going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. 10* (415) Boise St. Broncos |
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10-04-14 | St. Louis Cardinals +156 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
Series underdogs are off to a 6-0 start through the first two days of the Division Series including St. Louis taking the opener of this series last night, rallying from a 6-1 deficit. The Cardinals got to Clayton Kershaw and there is no reason to think they cannot keep it going here as they are getting another great number. The Dodgers lost a tough one last night behind their ace and that will be difficult to recover from and like the Tigers and Angels, the pressure is squarely on them and we saw how that worked out. Adam Wainwright was not sharp last night but I think we get a better effort from Lance Lynn. He is riding a nine-game quality outing streak and the Cardinals are more than due to reward him as they have dropped his last four starts despite the solid efforts. The Cardinals are 8-3 in Lynn's last 11 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Los Angeles counters with Zack Greinke who had another outstanding season with a 2.71 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 32 starts. He was much better at home than on the road and that is the second big reason, besides the must win aspect, this line is as big as it is. The Cardinals have been his nemesis in the postseason as they have eliminated his teams twice and in four starts, he has a 4.88 ERA. The Dodgers are just 2-5 in Greinke's last seven starts with five days of rest. 10* (915) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-04-14 | Pittsburgh +7 v. Virginia | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 0 m | Show |
After a perfect 3-0 start, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games against Iowa and Akron and both of those were as favorites. Losing to Iowa was a downer as the Panthers outgained the Hawkeyes by 124 total yards but were unable to hold onto a 10-point lead. Last week's loss to the Zips was inexcusable and it was clear that Pittsburgh did not come to play after the previous loss but the defeat last week can now serve as a wake up call. A loss this week could be devastating and head coach Paul Chryst could have a tough time not losing his team. The Panthers are on a bye so there are now no excuses. Virginia was picked to finish dead last in the ACC Coastal Division but it is off to a surprising 3-2 start which is already one more win than all of last season. Even the losses weren't bad as the Cavaliers fell to UCLA and BYU by eight points each and going back to last season, they have now covered seven straight games. What that does is cause this line to be overadjusted which is certainly the case here as Virginia is a favorite against a power conference team for the first time since being favored by two points over Duke last season. Virginia is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games as a single digit favorite while Pittsburgh falls into one of the best college situations around as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This situation is 39-11 ATS (78 percent) since 1992. 10* (331) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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10-04-14 | Michigan +3 v. Rutgers | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show |
Michigan been in the news a lot this week but for all of the wrong reasons. Whether it was because of mishandling of injuries or demonstrations to fire the athletic director or talk about the head coach needing to be let go, it is not very pleasant in Ann Arbor right now. This is where players need to recognize what is going on and play like they should play and not like the way they did last week in a home loss against Minnesota. Hitting the road after a three-game homestand is just what this team needs right now so the situation is in the Wolverines favor. They have dropped four straight against the number since destroying Appalachian St. opening week and that is putting the majority on the other side. Rutgers is 4-1 to start the season but it does not own a marquee victory as its toughest opponent was Penn St. and that resulted in the lone defeat. The Scarlet Knights have been outgained in three of five games this season including one against Howard from the FCS. Michigan meanwhile has outgained four of five opponents so despite the records, it can be argued Michigan is still the much better team and that is hard to disagree with. While Hoke is getting a lot of grief, and rightfully so, he has been great in getting his teams to bounce back off poor performances. The Wolverines managed a mere 171 yards of offense against Minnesota last week and in his career, Hoke is 7-0 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game and 14-2 ATS in 16 road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game. 10* (399) Michigan Wolverines |
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10-04-14 | Navy -4 v. Air Force | Top | 21-30 | Loss | -106 | 68 h 60 m | Show |
Navy is off to a disappointing 2-3 start following consecutive losses the last two Saturday's. Both of those came at home no less where they are 0-2 but the Midshipmen have won both of their road games while outgaining both opponents in doing so. They were favored then and they are favored again here for good reason and they will come in hungry and look to avoid matching their loss total from all of last season. We won with Air Force last week as it was aided by seven Boise St. turnovers. Had that not occurred, chances are the Falcons would not have won outright but I feel that puts them in a tough spot here against a team they have had trouble with over the years. This has been a tightly contested series over the last few years but Navy has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings. The Falcons have already surpassed their win total from last season but last week can be considered a fluke and a won over Nicholls St. was far from impressive. In the other victory over Georgia Southern, Air Force was outgained there also and the good fortunes cannot last all season. Navy is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games against teams allowing 3.25 or fewer ypc so it knows how to adjust. Additionally, the Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, Air Force is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game. 10* (373) Navy Midshipmen |
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10-03-14 | Calgary Stampeders -4.5 v. Saskatchewan Roughriders | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
Things are not looking very good in Saskatchewan right now. The Roughriders were coasting along with six straight wins and built a big lead against Winnipeg four weeks ago but that's when starting quarterback Darian Durant went down with an elbow injury and was lost for the season. Saskatchewan had a big enough lead and was able to hold on for the win but it has not been the same since then. It has gone 1-2 with the lone victory coming in overtime against expansion Ottawa and the offense managed a mere three points in those two losses. It was announced this week that rookie Seth Doege will start at quarterback when the club hosts Calgary. Doege replaces Tino Sunseri, who made three straight starts and was clearly ineffective. Calgary is coming off a win over British Columbia and needs one more victory to secure a playoff berth. The Stampeders are going with Drew Tate at quarterback who will be making his third start in place of Bo Levi Mitchell. This is a tough spot for Doege who will be facing the third ranked defense in the league and one that has held four opponents to eight points or fewer. Laying chalk on the road is never a favorite thing to do in the CFL but Calgary has a clear edge here. The Stampeders have covered four straight against winning teams while the Roughriders are 6-21-2 ATS in their last 29 games following a loss and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by 24 or more points. Additionally, we play against home teams after scoring six points or less last game. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75%) since 1996. 10* (493) Calgary Stampeders |
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10-03-14 | Louisville -1.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 55 h 27 m | Show |
Louisville is coming off a less than stellar effort last week against Wake Forest. Or was it? The Cardinal won by only 10 points and were actually trailing in the fourth quarter but a lot of that can be attributed to three lost fumbles, two short made field goals and two missed field goals. They did not allow an offensive touchdown as the only time Wake Forest got into the endzone was because of a fumble recovery. Louisville allowed only 10 first downs and 100 total yards of offense and overall it is ranked third in total defense (225.2 ypg) and ninth in scoring defense (14 ppg). I don't see that changing here against a Syracuse offense that is struggling to score. We were on the Orange last week and it was not a good call as they were able to keep it as close as they did thanks to a 5-1 edge in turnovers. Syracuse put up a decent 429 total yards but could muster only 15 points and six of those came on an interception return for a touchdown. It scored 40 points at Central Michigan but we can now call that an anomaly because the Orange have scored only 52 points in regulation in their other three games combined. Overall Syracuse is 48th in total offense but just 85th in scoring offense so there is definitely a disconnect somewhere and facing the toughest defense to date won't help matters. Louisville quarterback Will Gardner is questionable but that is not a concern at all. The Cardinals have a great situation on their side as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (309) Louisville Cardinals |
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10-03-14 | St. Louis Cardinals +183 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 10-9 | Win | 183 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This number has been out for a while and we were waiting on some movement but it just hasn't happened as the moneyline has been very stable over the course of the last three days. We figured that Los Angeles money would be coming on and it still might but nonetheless, we are getting a great number with the Cardinals Friday night. St. Louis held off Pittsburgh by two games to win the National League Central so it should still have some momentum riding over into the playoffs following so many big games toward the end. The Dodgers coasted in as they won the National League West by six games and their 45-36 home record is not overly impressive. Adam Wainwright takes the hill and he is playing second fiddle to Clayton Kershaw and we can see that in the line. He has been the second best pitcher in baseball with a 2.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 32 starts with the Cardinals winning 23 of those. He was even better on the road and his 1.72 ERA on the highway was the best road ERA of any qualified starter in baseball. Wainwright has been great during the postseason as he has posted a 2.53 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 67.2 innings covering nine starts and nine relief appearances. The big question here for Kershaw is can he overcome the horrible start in the NLCS last season against the Cardinals where he allowed seven runs in four innings in a 9-0 loss that ended the series and the Dodgers season. He pitched well against St. Louis during the regular season this year but that NLCS start could linger. The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight games against left-handed starters. 10* (907) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-03-14 | Detroit Tigers +100 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
Tough loss for Detroit yesterday that got out of hand late as Baltimore scored eight runs in the eighth inning to run away with it. This is a quick turnaround today and has turned into a big game for the Tigers as falling down 2-0 is tough to come back from even with the next two games being at home. Six of Baltimore's 12 hits came in that eighth inning so that is one Detroit has to let go and move on. Baltimore has now won only two of the seven meetings this season and both times were with Chris Tillman pitching. The Tigers are 10-4 in their last 14 games following a loss while the Orioles are 1-4 in their last five games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. There is a lot of talk about how bad Justin Verlander has been this season and to be fair, he has had his struggles for sure. But he was pitching through an injury as he has not been close to 100 percent healthy, until now that is. He has tossed two straight quality outings, giving up just one run in each game while going 7.1 and 8.0 innings. He has the veteran experience to know what this game means and he said there is no sense of urgency, he knows the deal. He has thrived in these moments as he is 4-0 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in seven career ALDS starts. Baltimore counters with Wei-Yin Chen who put together a very solid season with a 3.54 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 31 starts. He has actually been better on the road than at home however and his 1.32 WHIP at Camden Yards is a big concern against the Tigers offense. 10* (909) Detroit Tigers |
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10-02-14 | Arizona v. Oregon -23 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 23 m | Show |
At first glace, grabbing over three touchdowns with a 4-0 Arizona team seems like a good take but I don't think that will be nearly enough in this spot for the Wildcats. Arizona was off last week following its improbable comeback against California where it trailed by 18 points going into the fourth quarter and eventually won on a last second 47-yard touchdown pass. While it has had time to recover from that jubilation, it is coming into a tough environment for this Thursday night clash. The Wildcats won their lone road game but that came by only three points at Texas-San Antonio and this is a whole different animal. Oregon meanwhile is also coming off a bye following a closer than expected win at Washington St. two weeks ago as it won by just a touchdown as a 23-point chalk. Now the Ducks are back home where they have won 10 straight games and playing with a lot of added motivation. That comes from the 42-16 drubbing they took from Arizona is Tucson last season which closed the door on an outside shot at the National Championship. Now it is revenge time and Oregon will not let off the gas as it will want nothing more than to return the favor. The Ducks have numerous situations in their favor with the strongest being to play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 30-4 ATS (88.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Oregon is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in two consecutive games while Arizona is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg. 10* (308) Oregon Ducks |
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10-02-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
We mentioned yesterday that last season, only one of 10 games in the NL Wild Card and the NLDS finished with fewer than six runs and on average, we saw 8.4 rpg over those 10 games. While we would guess the AL numbers would be higher, they in fact were not. The 10 games in the AL Wild Card and the ALDS had an average of 7.4 rpg which is surprising considering the DH being in effect and overall higher scoring league to begin with. While this matters little to this particular matchup, the point is that perception plays a big part in putting these numbers out and that is clear with this total. The Royals easily went over in their Wild Card game on Tuesday but I think we see the complete opposite tonight as the under is 37-17-4 in the Royals last 58 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. When you think Angles, most think offense seeing that they led the Majors in runs scored but that has not parlayed into many games going over and that is due to solid pitching. Only 46 percent of their games at home went over and the under is 26-12 in the Angels last 38 home games. Jered Weaver gets the call for Game One and he was awesome here, posting a 2.68 ERA in 18 home starts, 13 of which were quality outings. The under is a perfect 10-0 in his last 10 home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Kansas City counters with Jason Vargas and while he has struggled of late, he is working on seven days rest which is big. Also, the atmosphere fits him as he was 6-6 with a 4.53 ERA in 16 starts at home this season and 5-4 with a 2.73 ERA in 14 starts on the road. 10* Under (903) Kansas City Royals/(904) Los Angeles Angels |
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10-02-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -107 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
We have seen the over come through in eight straight NFL primetime games going back to Week Two with the Steelers/Ravens last game to stay below the total. This has been a killer on the books which have had to endure a majority of over action from the public and with another notoriously high-scoring series continuing Thursday, the over bets will continue to pour in. This total has dropped from its opening but that is in part due to early pro money coming in as the public has not gotten a hold of this one yet so it is recommended to wait on this one until game day as this total should again creep back up. Minnesota and Green Bay are both coming off high scoring games last week so that will also get the public involved in more over action. What we saw from Minnesota against Atlanta was an anomaly as it put up 558 total yards of offense but overall, it is still ranked just 21st in the league in that category. Give Teddy Bridgewater credit but facing a bad Falcons defense definitely helped. Green Bay is coming off its worst defensive game of the season so we can expect a rebound. The Packers have struggled offensively and the Vikings defense has started solid and is ranked 9th in the NFL in points allowed. Both teams fall into a similar strong situation where we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 120-63 (65.6 percent) to the under since 1983. Look for a lower than expect scoring game come Thursday. 10* Under (301) Minnesota Vikings/(302) Green Bay Packers |
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10-01-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 6 | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 35 h 10 m | Show |
When it comes to playoff baseball, pitching rules as we tend to see a lot more low scoring games or so it seems. The postseason does come with that philosophy and the linesmakers have to adjust their numbers and that is certainly reflected with this total. Last season, only one of 10 games in the NL Wild Card and the NLDS finished with fewer than six runs and on average, we saw 8.4 rpg over those 10 games. Making a comparison, this total is only a half run higher than the Game One total of St. Louis and Los Angeles and that game features the two best pitchers in the National League in Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright. Looking at these two pitchers, this is easily the lowest total that Edinson Volquez has had this season and while Madison Bumgarner has had a total of six in two of his starts, both of those games went over the total with eight runs both times. Volquez comes in very hot as he allowed no runs over his final two starts covering 14 innings and he is riding a six-game quality outing streak. Additionally, he has fashioned a 1.78 ERA across his last 12 starts, and has not lost since his first outing following the All-Star Game. Now the bad news. He has a 5.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Giants and allowed four runs in 1.2 innings in his only postseason start in 2010. Bumgarner has been solid as well this season but is coming off a poor start in his final regular season outing. Also, he allowed five runs in four innings in his lone start against the Pirates this season. The Over is 6-0 in Volquez' last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game and the Over is 10-4 in Bumgarner's last 14 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. 10* Over (947) San Francisco Giants/(948) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-30-14 | Oakland A's v. Kansas City Royals +101 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 101 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
The Royals opened as high as -121 and it has come down to nearly a pickem with the A's being favored in some spots. This is the first postseason game for the Royals since 1985 which was the longest drought in baseball that will finally be snapped tonight. Surprisingly, the strength of Kansas City came on the road where it finished 47-34, the second best road record of all playoff teams. That doesn't mean they cannot get it done at home however as they are three games over .500 and Oakland comes in a game under .500 on the road. It's no secret the A's are struggling as they finished the second half 29-38 but were able to win on Sunday to secure the second Wild Card spot. Even though it was outscored overall, Kansas City won the season series 5-2 including wins in three of four at home. This is a great matchup of starting pitchers that come in red hot. Jon Lester has thrown nothing but quality starts since coming to Oakland but the A's are just 4-4 in his last eight starts and while her has owned Kansas City throughout his career, he has a pedestrian 4.26 ERA in two starts against the Royals since joining the A's. James Shields is riding a six-game quality start streak and while his record at home is average, he possesses a 2.86 ERA is three starts against Oakland since joining Kansas City last season. Oakland is 3-18 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season while going 4-15 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season. Meanwhile, the Royals are 11-4 when the money line is +125 to -125 this season when Shields is on the mound. 10* (946) Kansas City Royals |
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09-29-14 | New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Every Monday night game has gone over the last three weeks which has certainly been good for the public and bad for the books. I think this total has been adjusted slightly because of that and we have still seen it rise since the opening. The Patriots have gone under the total in each of their last two games as the defense has been playing spectacular, allowing just 16 points total. Granted, those were against Minnesota and Oakland but the offense they face tonight is not a ton better despite putting up 34 points last week. That total Kansas City scored was a touchdown more than its first two games combined. Overall, Kansas City is 23rd in scoring offense and 24th in total offense while the New England defense is 4th in scoring defense and 3rd in total defense. On the other side, the offense has been an issue for the Patriots and I see that continuing tonight. While the Chiefs are the team here that has a reputation for utilizing their quarterback in vanilla-like fashion, the reality is that New England has become nearly as conservative as Kansas City on offense. New England's offensive line leads the league in terms of hits and pressures allowed. The Kansas City defense has been average, but the environment is going to play a big role with Arrowhead Stadium being one of the loudest environments in the NFL. Meanwhile, Kansas City's offensive line ranks 30th with 41 pressures allowed so both offensive lines are struggling. Here, we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off one or more straight overs, in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 89-48 (65 percent) to the under since 1983. The under is 13-5-1 in the Chiefs last 19 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Patriots last eight games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (273) New England Patriots/(274) Kansas City Chiefs |
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09-28-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -113 | 103 h 9 m | Show |
New Orleans picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Minnesota after dropping its first two games at Atlanta and at Cleveland. I typically like to go against the Saints on the road and even more so when they are road favorites as they have failed to cover six straight games in that role. The situation is different here though as New Orleans can ill afford to fall to 1-3 on the season and they are facing a team they should have no issues with. The Cowboys have won their last two games but they have been outgained by a combined 54 yards in those games so they have been far from dominating. They had to rally from a 21-0 deficit to beat the lowly Rams last week but going back to 2011, Dallas has lost five of its last six games following consecutive wins. The Cowboys will be out for revenge and while that is an angle we like to ride in certain situations, the 49-17 drubbing only shows the differences between the two teams. The Drew Brees-led offense put up 625 yards, the most the Cowboys allowed in a game just two weeks after they allowed 623 to the Detroit Lions. The defense is ranked 21st this season but this is by far its biggest test to date. The Cowboys 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home against teams with a losing road record while the 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. They also fall into a solid situation where we play on teams after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 133-80 ATS (62.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) New Orleans Saints |
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09-28-14 | Green Bay Packers -1 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 96 h 41 m | Show |
Green Bay was a big letdown for some last week as the offense could not do anything against a banged up Detroit secondary. The Packers are now 1-2 and have yet to cover a number this season so we are in good position in backing them here. Let's not forget Green Bay started both 2012 and 2013 1-2 and managed to even the record up in its fourth game and I am certainly expecting the same result here as they face an even worse defense. Of course the media is saying that the Packers are done based on the first three weeks of the season but this is the game they break out. We won with Chicago on Monday night and it was pretty fortunate to be honest as the Bears were outgained by 157 yards, the second straight game they were outyarded badly but managed to win. They benefitted from a turnover advantage but when you allow Geno Smith to throw for 316 yards, you know something isn't right. Overshadowed in the loss to the Lions was that the defense did a great job in holding Detroit to 353 total yards. The Packers defense is looking to hold the opposing quarterback to a passer rating below 65.0 for the third game in a row (NYJ-Geno Smith, 64.1 / DET-Matthew Stafford, 61.6). The Packers have won four straight games at Soldier Field and five of the last six at the stadium. Green Bay has held Chicago to 20 points or less in six of the last seven games at Soldier Field. Chicago is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 home games while going 5-22 ATS in its last 27 games after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. 10* (253) Green Bay Packers |
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09-27-14 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse +12 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -106 | 82 h 29 m | Show |
We played against Notre Dame and won when it could cover against Purdue and once again, it comes in with an inflated number. The Irish are off to a 3-0 start and have looked good in doing so but not as good as you may think. Wins over Rice and Purdue are far from good wins as both programs are rebuilding while Michigan is certainly not the same team we thought they would be sitting at 2-2 following an upset loss against Utah last week. Now the Irish hit the highway again for the second straight game on a neutral field and not to mention it has a revenge game at home against Stanford next week. Both the offense and defense have been solid but playing the easy schedule thus far has skewed those averages. The score shows a 14-point loss against Maryland last week but the game was a different story as Syracuse outgained the Terrapins by 220 total yards. The Orange were done in by two turnovers, one of which was an interception returned 88 yards for a touchdown as well as a 90-yard touchdown pass by Maryland in the first quarter. Plays like that cannot be allowed in order to win and Syracuse found that out the hard way. Now it goes down to New Jersey where its fan base travels very well in hopes of pulling off the upset. They have 15 starters back form last year's bowl winning season and after the near debacle against Villanova, the Orange have looked very good on both sides of the ball. Syracuse is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (166) Syracuse Orange |
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09-27-14 | Duke v. Miami (Fla) -7 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 82 h 60 m | Show |
We lost a tough one last week in going against Duke and while the final score of 47-13 may not sound like that is the case, the game was not as bad as that outcome is. Tulane was outgained by only 46 total yards but five turnovers and 13 penalties killed the Green Wave and it was arguably the most deceiving final score of the weekend. 21 of Duke's points came off turnovers including two interception returns for scores. While the Blue Devils are 4-0, this is a team I am not sold on yet and a lot of that has to do with playing the 190th ranked schedule in the country. A road win at Troy has been the only highway trip and things will be a lot tougher here. Miami lost at Nebraska last week to fall to 2-2 with the other loss coming at Louisville so the Hurricanes have played in some tough venues. Now they are back home where they have won 10 of their last 11 games and are playing for some serious revenge following last year's 18-point beatdown in Durham. Miami is a different team now as it is a lot healthier than it was during that trip to Duke including having Duke Johnson back at running back. Look for him to have a monster game against the nation's 92nd ranked rushing defense which is actually worse than that based on the cupcake schedule. Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya is getting more comfortable and he is actually 30th in the nation in passing efficiency. Duke has won and covered six straight road games going back to the start of last season and because of the public love, we are catching a smaller than anticipated number which we take advantage of. 10* (180) Miami Hurricanes |
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09-27-14 | Boise State v. Air Force +13 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 81 h 28 m | Show |
Since opening the season with a loss against Mississippi, Boise St. has rolled to three straight wins and covers but let's face it, the opposition has been pretty bad. The Broncos had easy home wins over Colorado St. and UL-Lafayette but despite a 17-point win over Connecticut on the road, they outgained the Huskies by just two total yards. It comes as no secret that Boise St. is a better home team than road team and laying this type of number has been a problem as Boise St. is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when favored by double-digits against an opponent that is coming off a win. Air Force defeated Georgia St. two weeks ago and while that victory isn't saying much, a win is a win and playing with two weeks to prepare is even bigger. This is the first home game for Air Force since opening the season against Nicholls St. back in August so the Falcons were will extra pumped here against a quality foe. They are also playing with revenge following last season's 22-point loss at Boise and they bring in a perfect 6-0 ATS record coming off a bye week when getting fewer than 19 points. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that are coming off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 20 points while going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (198) Air Force Falcons |
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09-27-14 | Stanford -7.5 v. Washington | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 44 m | Show |
Stanford is off a bye last week which followed its easy win over Army at home the previous week. The Cardinal now hit the road for the first time this season and while that normally could be as cause for concern, the situation at hand totally negates that. Prior to Army, the Cardinal lost against USC and it can ill afford to start Pac 12 play at 0-2 especially with the challenges that lie ahead in the second half of the season. While we are not overly keen about laying more than a touchdown on the road, Stanford will show that it is far superior and expose the Huskies. Washington has not been very impressive this season as it opened with a one point win at Hawaii and then defeated Eastern Washington of the FCS by only seven points. The Huskies took care of Illinois by 25 points but last week fell behind against Georgia St. 14-0 before having to rally back for the win. They lost a ton from its offense last season and while the point totals have been big, this will be by far the best defense it has seen this season. Stanford is ranked first in the country in total defense and that is more impressive knowing it help the potent Trojans in check. Stanford knows the task here will not be easy as it defeated Washington by only three points last year and lost here in Seattle back in 2012 by four points. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 16 or fewer ppg against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (173) Stanford Cardinal |
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09-27-14 | Texas -13.5 v. Kansas | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 78 h 29 m | Show |
Texas is coming off a much needed bye week as after opening the season with a blowout win over North Texas, it has lost two straight games against BYU and UCLA. Those teams remain undefeated so while losses are bad, those aren't necessarily bad losses and the Longhorns take a big step down in class here. The Longhorns have back-to-back games against Baylor and Oklahoma immediately after this game and while that could normally trigger a lookahead, that won't happen here with Charlie Strong at the helm as his teams have gone 12-3 ATS in 15 games following a loss and the last thing they want is a three-game losing streak heading into the game against the Bears. Kansas is 2-1 for the second straight season but it went on to lose eight of its last nine games. The Jayhawks have defeated SE Missouri St. and Central Michigan, not exactly the best of opposition and they were both very unimpressive victories. Kansas has lost its Big 12 opener each of the last four years with three of the losses coming by 48, 40 and 38 points and a similar result here would not be surprising. The quarterback play has been atrocious from Montell Cozart sand now her will be facing a tough defense that has eight starters back from last season and is now healthy. On the other side, quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has directed the offense the last two games, completing 44 of 65 passes for 377 yards. His completion percentage (67.7) ranks No. 19 in the nation and he has committed just one turnover in his two starts. Texas has dominated this series as the Longhorns have won all 11 matchups in Big 12 play and have outscored Kansas by an average of 42.8-14.4 points per game in that stretch. 10* (175) Texas Longhorns |
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09-25-14 | San Diego Padres +140 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Play this one early. San Francisco lost last night to the Dodgers so clinching the division is now out of the question. The Wild Card is theirs to lose as the Giants have a four-game lead on Milwaukee so all it takes is one Brewers loss or one Giants win to make the playoffs. Milwaukee plays Thursday afternoon so San Francisco could already know its fate before they even get to the ballpark. Should the Brewers lose, San Francisco will be resting starters in all likelihood and this line will change dramatically. The Giants have been struggling nonetheless, losing eight of 11 and five of six with a .202 batting average and 12 runs. Yusmeiro Petit might be pulled as well but that could be unlikely. He has been solid with a 2.53 ERA over his last three starts but the Giants have lost his last two games as he has gotten just two runs in each. Things could be even worse tonight if the regular lineup is not in there. San Diego continues to play well, winning eight of its last 10 games and while things have not been as great on the road, having Andrew Cashner pitching surely helps. He has tossed five straight quality outings while going back further, he has allowed two runs or less in seven straight starts. He has three straight quality starts against the Giants, posting a 2.61 ERA. The Padres are 5-0 in Cashner's last five starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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09-25-14 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins UNDER 46.5 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
The Giants got off the schneid with their first victory last week against Houston and it will look to get to .500 for the first time this season. This is a tough team to trust offensively as they are still learning a new system and the 30 points scored last week were aided by turnovers. Now they have to hit the road for a divisional game on a short week against a defense that will be playing with a chip on its should after allowing 37 points last week. The Redskins lost by just three points at Philadelphia and while they did allow a lot of points, they allowed less than 400 yards of offense as one of the Eagles touchdowns came on a kickoff return for a touchdown. Washington is ranked fourth in the NFL in total defense after finishing 18th and 28th the last two years and while we are just two games in, you can tell the unit has improved. Looking at some of the recent numbers, the Giants have gone over the total in two of three weeks including last week while Washington has gone over the total two of three times also including each of its last two games. The Under is 7-3 in the Redskins last 10 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game while the Under is 11-5 in the Giants last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Additionally, the Giants are 10-2 to the Under in their last 12 games after one or more straight Overs. The last eight meetings in this series have stayed under the number we are being given this week and is a trend that continues. 10* Under (101) New York Giants/(102) Washington Redskins |
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09-25-14 | Appalachian State +19 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 50 m | Show |
Because of Appalachian St.'s loss to Southern Mississippi, we are getting some value with the Mountaineers. They rallied from a 14-0 deficit to nearly tie the game but missed the extra point because of a block in the final seconds to lose by one point. Appalachian St. actually outgained the Golden Eagles 455-329 but costly turnovers, three missed field goals sand penalties did it in. Five of eight drives that went into Southern Mississippi territory resulted in no points. Georgia Southern meanwhile is coming off a rout against South Alabama to square its record at 2-2. The Eagles have covered all four games and are now 8-0 against the spread since 2010 but are now favored against an FBS opponent by more than one point for the first time every and it is over two touchdowns no less. This team could be 4-0 overall as losses against NC State and Georgia Tech came by a combined five points so this is no doubt a very good team but the Eagles are in unchartered territory with this line and with it being a rival game that goes back to the SoCon days, it adds more for the underdog. While Georgia Southern gets the accolades for being a great rushing team, the Mountaineers are right there. Heading into conference play, Appalachian St. ranks third in the Sun Belt Conference in rushing with 212.3 ypg. Since the beginning of the 2010 season, the Mountaineers are 20-2 when they run the ball 40 or more times and 11-19 when they run the ball less than 40 times. Look for a much closer than expected game. 10* (103) Appalachian St. Mountaineers |
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09-22-14 | Chicago Bears +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 27-19 | Win | 102 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Typically, this could be a great situation going against the Bears after their come from behind win over the 49ers last Sunday night. However, I feel that they will use that as momentum going into this game Monday night and look to get over .500. Chicago lost on opening Sunday against the Bills and that is contributing with this play as an undefeated team coming in here would be a totally different situation. With a game against Green Bay next Sunday, the Bears could be staring at 1-3 should they walk out of here with a defeat. The Jets blew a 21-3 lead over Green Bay last week and that is a tough loss to recover from. They won their home opener against Oakland two weeks ago and while they outgained the Raiders by 244 total yards, it is hard not to overlook the fact they won by just five points. The Jets are playing the kind of football they prefer and that is winning at the line of scrimmage. They lead the NFL in rushing offense and rushing defense, becoming the first team since the 2007 Minnesota Vikings to lead those categories in the same week so let's face it, we are only through two weeks of the season. On the other side, the Bears have not taken control of the line of scrimmage as they are looking for a vertical game and with this matchup, they should have huge success. The Jets secondary was torched for 346 yards by Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler can be just as dangerous with Brandon Marshall and Ashton Jeffery as his main targets. Not only is the Jets secondary battered up but they cannot matchup size wise. Chicago falls into a great situation as we play against home favorites that allowed 24 or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (479) Chicago Bears |
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09-22-14 | Houston Astros +136 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Texas is playing some of its best baseball of the season as it has won eight of its last nine games which is a good sign heading into next season. This streak includes three straight wins at home prior to the recent 5-1 roadtrip but the Rangers are still just 28-46 at home and they are laying a big price here. The Astros have been playing very good also as they have won two straight games following the series win at Seattle. While it has not been a good season for Houston, it has been a lot better than most expected as some were projecting record breaking losses. But after a slow start, Houston has been pretty solid of late. Since May 24th, the Astros are 52-55 which is very strong considering the amount of times they have been underdogs not to mention how big some of the numbers have been. In those 107 games, Houston is +12.16 Units. Derek Holland takes the hill for the Rangers and he has been outstanding since returning from knee surgery. He has a 0.99 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 22:3 K:BB ratio across 27.1 innings and Texas has won all three of his most recent starts but now he is favored for the first time. Houston counters with Nicholas Tropeano who is making just his third Major League start. His first two have been solid as he has gone five innings in each while allowing a total of just three earned runs. The Astros have split his first two games but they did win the lone road outing against the Mariners. 10* (967) Houston Astros |
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09-21-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -125 | 80 h 53 m | Show |
This is a big game for San Francisco as it looks to avoid a 1-2 start. The 49ers started 1-2 last year and while they finished strong, four regular season losses were too much to avoid having all of their playoff games on the road. Falling to 1-2 again could conceivably put them in the same spot based on the strength of the upcoming schedule. Arizona is 2-0 to open the season but after watching the games, the Cardinals could easily be 0-2 or at the very least 1-1. the comeback against the Chargers was fortunate and last week, those same good fortunes came from the referees. This is the classic example of how turnovers can affect outcomes of games. For the 49ers, they were outgained by 63 total yards against the Cowboys but won comfortably thanks to a 4-0 turnover edge. Last week against the Bears, they outgained Chicago by 145 total yards yet lost no thanks to losing the turnover battle 4-0. As for Arizona, it was outgained by the Giants last week by 75 yards but won by 11 points thanks to a 4-0 edge in turnovers. While turnovers are nearly possible to predict, the fact that three of the four games involving these two teams have had turnover margins of +/-4 is rare. And as long as the 49ers are not on the wrong end like last week, they take this one comfortably. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 5-1 straight up and ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite and those five straight up wins have come by a combined score of 129-33. I certainly do not like laying points on the road but this is a sensational spot and San Francisco is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games away from home as a favorite. 10* (471) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-21-14 | Houston Texans v. NY Giants +2.5 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 58 m | Show |
Rarely are there must win games this early in a season but this one qualifies for the Giants. They are 0-2 and it has been an ugly 0-2 as they were thumped in Detroit on Monday night and then were defeated at home against Arizona last week. People can talk as much as they want about how bad the offensive transition has been but it has gotten better as each quarter has progressed. Not many teams are going to avoid a 0-2 starts for the season when they are -6 in turnover margin and that is the case for New York. After starting last season 2-0, Houston went on to lose its final 14 games and here it is again with another 2-0 start. The Texans won't be going through another 14-game losing streak this year but I think they are being overvalued in this spot with their first two games coming against the Redskins and Raiders. Unlike the Giants, Houston has benefitted from a positive turnover margin as it is sitting at +5 through two games so the fact there is a turnover differential of 11 between these two teams explains the opposite records we are seeing. Then Texans have totally taken advantage of the turnover situation as they have been outgained in both games thus far despite double-digit winning margins in each. The Giants are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home and are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Meanwhile Houston has not been good in these spots as it is 0-10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against NFC opponents with a .400 or worse winning percentage. New York faces three division opponents in the next four game after this making this an even bigger priority. 10* (458) New York Giants |
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09-21-14 | Calgary Stampeders v. Montreal Alouettes +7 | Top | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 23 m | Show |
Calgary is outgaining opponents by just 41.7 ypg which is pretty slim for a team that has lost only one game all season and by one point no less. The Stampeders have been doing it by not making mistakes and taking advantage of other teams errors. This has especially been the case on the road where Calgary is a perfect 5-0 yet is getting outgained by 5.2 ypg and has been outgained in four of those five games. The difference is that the Stampeders are +5 in turnover margin and +15 in penalties so the opposition has basically handed them these games. Montreal is just a half-game out of first place in the East Division because it is so weak and the Alouettes are the unlikeliest of the teams in contention to actually win the division. To their credit though, they have been playing better of late as they have won two of their last three games and they are a respectable 3-3 at home compared to 0-5 on the road. Montreal will be out for revenge following losing its season opener at Calgary by 21 points, its third straight loss to the Stampeders. Speaking of revenge, Calgary has some in mind for next week as it hosts British Columbia which is the only team it has lost to this season so the Stampeders won't be 100 percent here this week. We have numerous situations on out side here as well including one where we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after playing a game at home, in September games. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1996. Also, we play on home underdogs or pickems off a road loss, in September games. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (496) Montreal Alouettes |
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09-20-14 | Florida Atlantic v. Wyoming -4 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -106 | 91 h 46 m | Show |
After a 2-0 start, Wyoming ran into the buzzsaw of Oregon last week and fell to the Ducks by 34 points. In actuality, it was not that bad of a loss as the Cowboys were outgained by only 117 total yards and were down by only six points late in the second quarter before Oregon was able to pull away. Wyoming put up 439 total yards of offense against a very strong and underrated Ducks defense so they have to be happy coming back home following their best output of the season. This is a brand new system that new head coach Craig Bohl has brought in so it would take some time and is clicking around the right time. Florida Atlantic picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Tulsa in a surprising blowout. To their credit, the Owls opened the season with games against Nebraska and Alabama so getting blown out in those games was nothing to be ashamed of. I don't like the situation here though for them as they travel out west, furthest they have gone in a decade, with their conference opener taking place next week. They have been strong road underdogs the last couple years but they have been double-digit dogs in 14 of their last 17 road games so clearly this is a different scenario. Wyoming is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 7.25 or more yppl in their previous game and falls into an excellent situation where we play on teams (after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (342) Wyoming Cowboys |
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09-20-14 | Virginia v. BYU -14 | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -100 | 90 h 27 m | Show |
BYU is 3-0 for the first time since 2001 when it opened the season 12-0 and it has a chance to go deep again this year. The Cougars did not cover their last game but they have dominated all three games, winning the yardage battle by at least 158 total yards each time out. They have the benefit of a couple extra days off for this game and they have had this one circled as they went to Virginia in the season opener last season and lost by three points despite outgaining the Cavaliers by 139 total yards. Revenge will certainly be in play this week and while BYU has Utah St. on deck, it is not for another two weeks. Virginia has looked very good through three games as it narrowly lost to UCLA on opening weekend and followed that up with two wins including an upset of Louisville last week to open ACC play. Considering the Cavaliers won two games all of last season, it has already been a success but now Virginia hits the road for the first time this season. It has won only once in its last nine road games and going back, the Cavaliers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. We look for BYU to control the line of scrimmage here and have success running the ball which sets up solid situation as we play on home favorites that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against a team averaging between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (368) BYU Cougars |
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09-20-14 | Florida +14.5 v. Alabama | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -107 | 90 h 26 m | Show |
There are very few marquee games this weekend but this can classify as one even though the Gators are not ranked. They are coming off a very fortunate win over Kentucky at home last Saturday and while many will look at that final score and think they will not have a chance here, that was a difficult spot with Alabama on deck. On top of that, Kentucky is a much improved team and if Alabama had the Wildcats last week, a closer than expected outcome would not have been surprising there either. The Crimson Tide have been cruising along to start the season but they have failed to cover against some inferior competition. They have not covered a game since last November, going 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games and we are catching a good number here that is above two touchdowns. Florida has a new offense and it has looked very good through two games and while it has not faced a defense like Alabama yet, that stop unit is not up to form yet so the Gators can move the ball here. The Tide defense has allowed more yards in each of the last three years including over 100 more ypg last season than they did in 2011. Florida is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better while Alabama is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 home games after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. This is the first meeting since 2011 and Florida is getting the most points in this series since the early 90's. 10* (357) Florida Gators |
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09-20-14 | Marshall v. Akron +10 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -115 | 89 h 57 m | Show |
Akron last played two weeks ago at Penn St. and while it was competitive for the majority of the game, the Nittany Lions were able to pull away and avoid the backdoor cover. The Zips extra prep time is big here as they have the opportunity to work on things to slow down the Marshall offense and their defense is good enough to do so. After suffering though three straight 1-11 seasons, the Zips went 5-7 last year including wins in four of their last five games. With seven starters back on both sides of the ball, this team should continue to improve. Marshall is 3-0 following another blowout victory, this time over Ohio as it shellacked the Bobcats by 30 points and outgained them by 328 total yards. This team is no secret as the Thundering Herd came in as one of the possible non-BCS conference teams to run the table and go undefeated. They are overvalued here however as the are a different team on the road than they are at home. Marshall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite of more than a touchdown off a non-conference game while going 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Zips are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a bye week. Akron falls into a great situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. 10* (312) Akron Zips |
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09-19-14 | Toronto Argonauts +6.5 v. B.C. Lions | Top | 40-23 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show |
How bad is the East Division? The combined record of the four teams is 10-32 with the best team sitting four games under .500. The West Division is a combined 39-17 with no team sitting below .500 so this game on paper looks like an absolute mismatch. Making it even more of a mismatch is the fact that the West has won 26 of 30 meetings this season against East foes including going perfect at home. This line is begging to take British Columbia but it is far from that easy and we will once again go the contrarian route. Toronto is playing its fourth straight road game, losing the first three so it would surely like to end that skid before coming home for four in a row. The Argonauts are 3-8 on the season but they are hardly as bad as that record indicates. They are getting outscored by just 3.1 ppg yet are outgaining opponents by 18.5 ypg. British Columbia is 7-4 overall and is on a two-game winning streak. I expect the Lions not to be fully into this one as they have a date with first place Calgary next week, a team that will be out for some serious revenge as its only loss came against British Columbia. We have two great go against spots here. First, we play against teams in the second half of the season that are outgaining opponents by 40 to 100 ypg going up against teams with a +/- 40 ypg differential, after allowing 325 or less total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1996. Second, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win over a division rival, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 35-9 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (491) Toronto Argonauts |
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09-19-14 | Connecticut v. South Florida UNDER 47.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 60 h 57 m | Show |
The Friday night football schedule has been pretty lame as far as entertainment goes and this Friday should be no exception with two of the worst teams from the AAC squaring off. Both Connecticut and South Florida are 1-2 heading into their conference openers with both of those victories coming against FCS teams and by very narrow margins to say the least. This game looks like a tossup as far as the winner but we can expect another boring contest as far as schemes go and this total is still too high for this matchup. The offenses for both dies have been horrible as the Huskies come in ranked 115th in the nation, averaging 289.3 ypg while the Bulls are not much better at 113th, averaging 300.3 ypg. While it can be said the opposing defenses have something to do with it, it comes down to the inexperience of the quarterbacks and very poor offensive line play. Both sides are willing to grind it out and not take chances that can hurt the offense. The last four meetings in this series have stayed well under the total with the highest scoring game reaching just 35 points. South Florida is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after going over the total last game while going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile Connecticut is 4-0 to the under in its last four games following a double-digit home loss while going 15-5 to the under in its last 20 games as a road underdog of seven points or less. Despite what we have seen this year, this is the highest posted total over the last five meetings. 10* Under (305) Connecticut Huskies/(306) South Florida Bulls |
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09-18-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
This line is going exactly where we thought so holding off was the right move and holding off even longer should pay off. This line opened at 5.5 and it is now up to -7 in some spots and going past that would not be surprising. The Falcons are coming off an abysmal game last week at Cincinnati and many will be backing them here looking for a big bounceback at home. I am not one of those as the Falcons continue to be overrated and because of that, they continue to be overpriced. The offense is full of weapons no doubt but the defense is bad and Tampa Bay should have success moving the ball. We have not seen the Buccaneers do much on offense but they have faced two of the stronger defensive lines in all of football and now will be facing one of the weakest. Atlanta gave up 139 yards rushing to New Orleans and 170 yards rushing to the Bengals and overall the Falcons are ranked dead last in total defense, 31st in passing defense and 26th in rushing defense. Tampa Bay isn't going to scare many people with this offense but like last year, this is a perfect opponent. The Buccaneers surpassed 300 yards only five times and two times came against the Falcons including their highest output of the year. Tampa Bay can take advantage this year as it is averaging 5.5 ypc, third best in the league. We have seen the home team win and cover the first two Thursday night games this season and there is the theory that many go by where as to take the home team but the host is just 9-8 ATS on Thursday night going back to the start of last season. 10* (301) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-18-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Houston Astros +117 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
After winning the opener of this series, the Astros have dropped the last two games and tonight, they will be out to salvage the split. While it has not been a good season for Houston, it has been a lot better than most expected as some were projecting record breaking losses. But after a slow start, Houston has been pretty solid of late. Since May 24th, the Astros are 50-53 which is very strong considering the amount of times they have been underdogs not to mention how big some of the numbers have been. In those 103 games, Houston is +11.95 Units. Cleveland is still fighting for a Wild Card spot but it remains five games out with 11 games left so the chances are not good. Despite being 10 games under .500 on the road and being at a big disadvantage in the pitching matchup, the Indians are favored again tonight. Danny Salazar takes the hill for Cleveland and he has been very inconsistent this season, posting only six quality outings in 18 starts. He has been worse off on the road where he has a 4.89 ERA in nine starts with only two of those resulting in quality outings. Cleveland is 3-6 in those games and going back, the Indians are 1-4 in his last five starts as a road favorite. Scott Feldman has thrown five straight quality outings but Houston has won only two of those games although the three losses came against the Angels and A's (twice). The Astros are 2-11 in his 13 road starts but 8-6 in his 14 home starts thanks to his better numbers and better run support. The Astros are 4-1 in Feldman's last five starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (966) Houston Astros |
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09-18-14 | Auburn v. Kansas State +9 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 31 m | Show |
Auburn comes into Thursday night riding the longest ATS winning streak in the country as it has now covered 13 straight games going back to last season. That alone is making this line bigger than it should be and from a pure power ranking standpoint, I have this game as Auburn being a six-point favorite on a neutral field so this line is a touchdown higher than it should be based on venue. The tigers have rolled to wins over Arkansas and San Jose St. but now this is their toughest opponent to date and it is their first road game of the season on top of it. Kansas City is also 2-0 but it failed to cover either of its games against Stephen F. Austin and Iowa St. so that is also playing into this number. The Wildcats are not home underdogs very often but they have taken advantage of late as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games a home pup and even better, they are 12-4 ATS as underdogs the last three seasons. Head coach Bill Snyder continues to get the job done and in his career at Kansas St. he has won 64 of 68 home games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, the Wildcats are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. Kansas St. also falls into a great situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 130-71 ATS (64.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Kansas St. Wildcats |
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09-15-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -112 | 104 h 26 m | Show |
The Colts backdoored us last week as they scored twice in the final eight minutes to cover the number against Denver. They now head home where they definitely need a victory to avoid going 0-2 and I am very confident they will even up their record. Indianapolis was able to outgain the Broncos last Sunday night by 47 yards which has been a rarity over the last couple years as it has typically been on the wrong side of the stat sheet. One thing we do know is that the Colts have been the best bounce back team in the NFL over the last two years and it happens to coincide with the arrival of Andrew Luck. Indianapolis is a perfect 10-0 straight up and against the number following a loss during the regular season over those two years. While the winning margin was only 4.8 ppg in 2012, it rose to 11.8 ppg last season. The Eagles spotted Jacksonville a 17-0 lead at halftime as turnovers along with an offense that could not get going and they looked to be in serious danger. However the second half was all Philadelphia as it outscored the Jaguars 34-0 to win its season opener for the fourth straight season. The Eagles were an excellent road team last season, going 6-2 overall but it defeated only one team that went to the playoffs and that was Green Bay who was playing without Aaron Rodgers so even that win can be thrown out. They will be going into a very tough environment on Monday and justifiably so as this is the first Monday night home game for Indianapolis since Luck came aboard so the Colts will have a big home field edge. Indianapolis is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 while going 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 30 points or more last game. 10* (280) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-14-14 | Chicago Bears v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 48.5 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 45 m | Show |
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. Chicago and San Francisco are both coming off unders last week and that is helping keep this total at a playable number. The Bears and Bills finished at 43 in a game that went to overtime and it stayed under the total of 47. The 49ers and Cowboys finished at 45 points and it stayed under the total of 49. This week, we are catching a number right around the same range and I am expecting a total different outcome. When you think of the Bears and 49ers, you think of defense. Well that is not necessarily the case here. Chicago finished with the 30th ranked defense last season and while it did ok last week against Buffalo, the Bills offense is nothing special at all. The defense will have a much tougher task this week. San Francisco had the fifth ranked defense last season but it did allow 382 yards last week and while still formidable, they do have some issues and the absence of Aldon smith is big. Chicago can take advantage of an average rushing defense which can help open up the passing game. Here, we play the over involving home teams after a game where they forced four or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 36-13 (73.5 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Chicago is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after playing a game at home while San Francisco is 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games against losing teams. 10* Over (277) Chicago Bears/(278) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-14-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers +6 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 77 h 11 m | Show |
Seattle has a very big scheduling advantage in this game as it opened its season last Thursday so it will have had 10 days to prepare for this game while the Chargers are coming off a Monday night game. Normally, that needs to be taken into account but because of the venue switches and the outcomes from last week, it is not as significant. The Seahawks proved that they are again the team to beat as they took care of Green Bay by 20 points while outgaining the Packers by 143 yards. That game was at home however where Seattle is 18-1 over its last 19 games and on the road over that same stretch, it is 9-8 so clearly it is a different team away from CenturyLink Field. But the Seahawks are favored for a reason and favored big yet the public is still all over them as they are the second biggest betting consensus of the weekend. The Chargers had the game against Arizona in their grasp yet failed to hold on as they allowed two fourth quarter touchdowns to lose by a point. While they are not in the same class as Seattle, not many are, they are in the situation to keep up. Coming back to San Diego for the home opener against the Super Bowl champions is big enough but you have to also take into consideration that the Seahawks have a date with Denver on tap next week. The Chargers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and they fall into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams after scoring 30 points or more last game going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 80-41 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Diego Chargers |
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09-14-14 | Miami Marlins +106 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 5-4 | Win | 106 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Miami's playoff chances are shot after suffering its fourth straight loss on Saturday and it is now 6.5 games out of the second Wild Card slot in the National League. The pitching remains constant but it is the offense that has been the letdown recently as the Marlins have tallied only five runs over this four-game skid. The pitching has done its part and going back further, Miami has not allowed more than four runs in 10 straight games, giving up an average of 3.1 rpg during that stretch. The Phillies won its second straight game but they have struggled putting together big winning streaks as they are 0-3 over their last three games following consecutive victories. Their offense has also been struggling but theirs is more long term and the .242 batting average is sixth worst in baseball. The Phillies are 3-13 in their last 16 Sunday games and they turn to David Buchanan to try and complete the sweep. He has been an extremely solid addition to the rotation with a 3.90 ERA in 17 starts but Philadelphia is just 7-10 in those games. Run support has been a big problem which is no surprise because of the weak offense and the Phillies are 0-4 in Buchanan's last four starts following a quality outing in his last appearance. Miami counters with Tom Koehler who has quietly put together a solid season with a 3.74 ERA in 29 starts and he has allowed three runs or less in six straight games and going back further, 10 of his last 11. The Marlins are 7-2 in his last nine starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game and in two starts against the Phillies this season, he has a 1.50 ERA, both games resulting in quality performances. 10* (955) Miami Marlins |
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09-14-14 | New England Patriots -6 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 74 h 17 m | Show |
We played against the Patriots last week and after getting outscored 23-0 in the second half against Miami, they fell to 0-1 for the first time since 2003. They rebounded the following week then on the road at Philadelphia and I expect the same again this year. New England is still an elite team even though it looked far from it last week and it has been one of the best, it not the best, bounce back teams in the NFL over the last decade. Since the year they lost that season opener, the Patriots have dropped consecutive games during the regular season only four times and have gone 33-4 in their 37 games following a regular season loss. That is pretty impressive and you can give the credit to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for those rebound efforts. Brady is 24-9 ATS following a loss while under Belichick, the Patriots are 11-2 ATS in road games following a road loss and 11-3 ATS off a divisional loss as a favorite. Minnesota took care of St. Louis last week as the Vikings took advantage of the quarterback situation for the Rams. Despite the 28-point win, Minnesota only outgained the Rams by 28 yards as it won the turnover battle 2-0 and benefitted from the Rams committing 13 penalties for 121 yards. They will not be handed that sort of advantage this week and despite being a solid home underdog over the years, this is not the spot for that success to go on. The defense allowed only 318 yards against St. Louis but they were able to crowd the box and try and let Shaun Hill and Austin Davis beat them,. They cannot do that with Brady. 10* (261) New England Patriots |
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09-14-14 | Saskatchewan Roughriders v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -1 | Top | 3-28 | Win | 100 | 71 h 19 m | Show |
Saskatchewan comes in at 8-2 as it is riding a seven-game winning streak. The last five games have been very tight with the biggest margin of victory being six points so any of those games could have gone the other way. Hamilton meanwhile is only 2-7 on the season with five of those losses coming by a touchdown or less so just the opposite of the Roughriders where it could have more wins than it does. Hamilton has actually outgained five of its nine opponents this season but it has lost three of those games. In total, the Tiger Cats are outgaining opponents by an average of 19.5 ypg while on the other side, Saskatchewan is dead even in yardage differential despite being six games over .500. The Roughriders have outgained only half of their opponents including just two of five on the road. The fact that the Tiger Cats are favored here is a surprise to some and because of that, Saskatchewan is getting the vast majority of the betting action here. Hamilton will be out for some payback here as it has dropped four straight meetings in this series including the first one this season as well as the Grey Cup from last season. This is the first opportunity that Hamilton will host the Roughriders since that Grey Cup defeat. Two situations favor the home side here. First, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better where the line is +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 40-16 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on teams that are revenging a same season loss versus opponent and coming off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (298) Hamilton Tiger Cats |
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09-13-14 | Purdue +28.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 81 h 39 m | Show |
Purdue went 1-11 last season and while it has already matched that win total this year, the Boilermakers are coming off a disappointing loss last week against Central Michigan. That will certainly have them motivated here as they try to snap a six-game losing skid to rival Notre Dame. The Irish have been on cruise control through their first two games but after winning the last game in the series against Michigan last Saturday night, the first shutout against the Wolverines since 1984, this spells major letdown. This is an interesting matchup from a statistical point of view from last week. Notre Dame was outgained by nine yards against Michigan while Purdue was outgained by seven yards against Central Michigan. Those resulted in two completely different opposite scores as Notre Dame won by 31 points and Purdue lost by 21 points. The difference was turnovers which can change the outcome of a game even if it is played closer than the score shows. The linesmakers are basing this line on the score and not the games so we take advantage of the value. Notre Dame was favored by 17 points at Purdue last year and won by just a touchdown so based on a neutral field change, it is arguably favored by a touchdown more than it should be. The Boilermakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. This is also the last meeting in this series after 68 years and even though it will reconvene in 2020, Purdue should be extremely motivated to end their losing skid to the Irish. 10* (179) Purdue Boilermakers |
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09-13-14 | Army v. Stanford -28 | Top | 0-35 | Win | 100 | 78 h 9 m | Show |
This is similar to one of our other plays where we should see a heavy favorite take no prisoners on its overmatched opponent. Stanford did not get off to the start in the Pac 12 it was hoping for as it lost to USC by a field goal at home. A late game winning touchdown was called back because of a penalty and on the day, the Cardinal outgained the Trojans by 122 total yards so it was the better team on the field last week. They threw for 285 yards but could manage only 10 points but that won't be the case this week. We won with Army against Buffalo last week as the Black Knights built a big lead and needed all of it as they withstood a late Bulls rally to win by eight points. They were outgained by 83 yards and while Army was again solid with its offensive rushing, the fact it gave up 554 total yards is a huge concern. This is the first of three straight road games for Army and the other two are quite winnable so getting down early will but the Black Knights in a corner they won't be able to get out of. As for Stanford, it is off next week so there is no reason to think it will not go all out here and try to fix the scoring issue from last week. And they have done it in the past as the Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The last time it happened was a three-point loss to USC last season and they won by 50 over California in their next game. 10* (168) Stanford Cardinal |
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09-13-14 | Mississippi State v. South Alabama +15 | Top | 35-3 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
We won with South Alabama last week and we will ride them again this week. The Jaguars went 2-11 in 2012 but closed last year by winning three straight games to finish 6-6 and even though it did not get a bowl game, that should change this year and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. This is the first home game of the season for South Alabama and this is by far the most high profile opponent to come to Ladd-Peebles Stadium ever. Mississippi St. comes in a perfect 2-0 but has not really been tested. The Bulldogs shutout Southern Miss which came in on a 1-23 run and then took out UAB last week, they defeated the Blazers by just 13 points and were actually outgained by 32 yards and this was at home. The real clincher in going against Mississippi St. is that it opens SEC action next week at LSU and it is a big revenge spot on top of it as it lost to the Tigers by 33 points last season, easily its worst loss of the year. The Bulldogs have not been favored by this much on the road since 2011 and even though it comes against a Sun Belt Conference team, they have not shown anything to justify it. These team met in Starkville in 2012 and the Jaguars lost by only 20 points and that was part of a 2-11 season. Mississippi St. is 2-10 ATS in it 12 games under Dan Mullin following a two-game homestand while the Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (158) South Alabama Jaguars |
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09-13-14 | Miami (OH) v. Michigan -31 | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -102 | 77 h 40 m | Show |
The country watched Michigan go into Notre Dame as a four-point underdog and leave with its tail between its legs after suffering a 31-0 beatdown. That isn't go to deter the public to back the Wolverines most likely but that is just fine with us as we are getting exceptional value based on the score and not the actual game. Michigan actually outgained Notre Dame by nine yards but it had four turnovers that did the damage. The Wolverines will be out to beat up on someone and what better team than Miami Ohio, losers of 18 straight games. The Warhawks have dropped both games this year at home and one was against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS. Competing on the road has been a real issues lately as they have lost games by 46, 38, 34 and 36 points in the four game against BCS conferences and two of those were against Illinois and Kentucky last season which won a combined six games. If Michigan goes out and actually puts forth the expected effort, it can name the score and you can pretty much guarantee it has not forgotten what happened against Akron last season. Here, we play on home favorites of 21.5 or more points that are averaging 4.8 ypc or more going up against a team allowing between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc, after allowing 2.0 or less ypc last game. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1992 with the average scoring differential being +37.9 ppg. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. 10* (120) Michigan Wolverines |
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09-12-14 | Baylor v. Buffalo +35 | Top | 63-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
We waited on this game to confirm some injury reports. Baylor is getting quarterback Bryce Petty back for this game which is definitely a big boost after he hurt his back in the season opener. He missed the last game against Northwestern St. but he was not needed in the 70-6 win against the FCS Bears. While Petty returns, it is his main targets that we are concerned about and none of them will be in action tonight. Receivers Clay Fuller and Levi Norwood were already out but it is now clear that Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman will also not play tonight due to leg injuries. All total, that is 3,111 yards, 185 receptions and 26 touchdowns from last season that will not be on the field tonight. Buffalo is coming off a loss last week at Army but it made a gallant effort in trying to come back after trailing by 30 as it scored the final 22 points to lose by eight. The Bulls racked up 554 yards of offense and they will give the Bears their biggest test of the season. Baylor has only four starters back on defense and Buffalo can take advantage as it won't take much on offense to stay within this huge number. This line has gone up because of the Petty news but the other key injuries are not being taken into consideration. This is a revenge game for Buffalo which lost at Baylor last season 70-13 and while the chances of winning are slim, staying within the number are good and even if Baylor does build a lead, Petty will likely exit to stay healthy for the Big XII opener in two weeks. 10* (110) Buffalo Bulls |
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09-11-14 | Houston +18.5 v. BYU | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 77 h 53 m | Show |
BYU is coming off a big win over Texas to improve to 2-0 on the season, both wins coming on the road. This is the home opener for the Cougars and based on their lopsided wins, they are laying a bigger than expected number and I feel it will prove to be too big. Houston easily took care of Grambling 47-0 to win its first game of the season following a season opening loss against UTSA. That was a game the Cougars never got in because of turnovers so that 20-point loss is somewhat skewed. Both teams are on the plus side in yardage differentials and it is not as big as everyone thinks. BYU has a +1.7 yppl margin which is solid as anything on the plus side is obviously good but Houston checks in with a +1.4 yppl margin so it is not far behind. BYU won a thriller against Houston last season 47-46 which brings revenge into play as it snapped Houston's undefeated start to the season which was 5-0. The Cougars are 0-9 in their last nine home games against teams playing with revenge. Additionally, BYU is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games coming off two consecutive road wins since 1992 and it falls into a negative situation where we play against home favorites after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (105) Houston Cougars |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 44.5 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
With the whole Ray Rice fiasco taking place in Baltimore, this is a game the Ravens will need to focus on and put the distractions behind them. That being said, this is a spot where the defense can really come up big and I expect that side to dominate on both sides. This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight. Baltimore suffered a bad loss against Cincinnati at home last week but the one thing it did do good was hold the Bengals to five field goals in their first five scoring chances. The Ravens allowed 380 yards which isn't great but it isn't horrible either. Pittsburgh lit up the Browns defense for 490 total yards but I certainly don't see that happening here. The Steelers are still a ruin first team and even when they don't protecting the quarterback is an issue. While the Bengals have a great offensive line, the Steelers do not so we should see a lot of penetration. Offensively, the Ravens have to run the ball and they should now know that after throwing 62 times last week including a bunch of those that were dropped. The Steelers defense is not bad as the one that allowed Cleveland to score 27 points as they had a big lead and took the pedal off the gas. The defenses have dominated this series in the past and will do so again. 10* Under (101) Pittsburgh Steelers/(102) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-11-14 | Oakland A's +128 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
This line shows how much a starting pitcher can affect a number. Oakland was favorites of 164, 195 and 205 in the first three games of this series with three of its top four pitchers going. That fourth one is going today but the A's are now underdogs based on the pitcher on the other side and this is simply too big of an adjustment. There is a 16-game difference between these two teams and that is not because of one player. Oakland needs this game to avoid its fourth straight series loss and it needs to win to simply get out of the funk it is in. While winning the American League West is no longer a possibility, the Wild Card is still there but they are five games of falling out. The White Sox have won only two of their last seven games and are still a game under .500 at home and going back, the White Sox are 13-32 in their last 45 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Chris Sale is the pitcher in question and while he has cruised along with six straight quality starts, Chicago is just 2-4 in those games including a 1-2 record at home. The White Sox are 2-6 in Sale's last eight starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 while going 0-4 in his last four starts during game four of a series. The A's turn to Scott Kazmir and he is coming off a much needed quality start after two straight blowup games. He has been solid on the road and he has been great during the day with eight quality outings in 10 starts. The A's are 14-3 in Kazmir's last 17 starts following a quality outing in his last start and 4-0 in his last 4 starts against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the White Sox are 0-5 in their last five home games against left-handed starters. 10* (913) Oakland A's |
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09-10-14 | Atlanta Braves +172 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 172 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
The Braves burned us last night as they allowed four runs in the first inning and were unable to make the comeback. It has been a tough run as the Braves dropped to 3-7 in their last 10 contests and remained 1.5 games behind Pittsburgh for the second National League Wild Card spot. Washington meanwhile has won three straight games and with each game, the value going against them gets bigger. With Stephen Strasburg on the hill, it is even more so. He had an incredible run from April until mid-June with 11 consecutive quality outings but it has been very hit or miss since then. He has a 3.79 ERA over his last 15 starts which is very solid for most but you don't know what you are going to get. Seven of those 15 have been non-quality efforts and while he is riding two straight quality starts, he has not put together three straight over this 15-game stretch as he had consecutive quality outings on three other occasions only to follow it up with a non-quality game. Facing the Braves should keep this streak going as in three starts against them this season, he has an 8.22 ERA. Also part of the reason this line is so high is the fact that Aaron Harang has been very inconsistent and the Braves have been unable to win for him. He has a 3.87 ERA on the season which is decent but Atlanta has won only once in his last 10 starts as run support has been the issue. He is coming off a start where he allowed six runs but that helps here as he has allowed four runs or more six other times and has followed it up by allowing three runs or less each time out, posting a 3.32 ERA in those six games. Harang has a 1.38 ERA in two starts against Washington, both being quality and both having allowed just one run each. 10* (951) Atlanta Braves |
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09-09-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks +157 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The Giants are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West but they still have a firm grasp of the top Wild Card spot with a three-game lead over Pittsburgh. They are coming off a series win against Detroit but they have not been as good at home as they have been on the road. The Giants are 9-19 in their last 28 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Arizona looked to snap its three-game losing skid as it heads to San Francisco for the opener of this three-game set. The Diamondbacks got swept against the Dodgers as the offense once again struggled, scoring just five runs over the three games and this has been an issue for the starter as well but I foresee a breakout tonight. Arizona is 19-9 in its last 28 road games after three or more consecutive losses. You would be hard-pressed to find a pitcher that is going through some horrible fortunes as Wade Miley is. He is going through his best stretch of the season as he has tossed five straight quality starts yet the Diamondbacks are 0-5 in those games as they have managed a mere six runs in those five games total. His ERA over that stretch is 2.20 sp he is clearly doing his job and facing the Giants should be no issue as he has a career ERA of 3.09 against them. The Diamondbacks are 7-3 in Miley's last 10 road starts against teams with a winning record while the Giants are 9-19 in their last 28 games against left-handed starters. Additionally, Arizona is 5-0 in Miley's last five starts as a road underdog of +150 to +175. Yusmeiro Petit has been up and down and is getting another start despite allowing six runs last time out. His offense has bailed him out but that won't be the case tonight against an opposing quality starter. 10* (913) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-08-14 | San Diego Chargers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. While the road team is getting points here, I don't know if the Chargers necessarily should be. San Diego is coming off a 9-7 season and made the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and won their first playoff game since 2008. The Chargers should be even better this season after winning the yardage battle is 11 of 16 regular season games. According to reports, the Chargers offense is clicking under new OC Frank Reich so they could be a dangerous sleeper if the defense improves. The Chargers addressed the team's two most glaring needs heading into the offseason by upgrading the talent at cornerback and edge rusher. Arizona went 10-6 last season but failed to make the playoffs and I don't see it getting any better this season. The defense was the strength a season ago but the Cardinals will be without the team's best defensive player in Daryl Washington (suspension), along with defensive tackle Darnell Dockett (ACL injury) and perhaps Tyrann Mathieu. Additionally, Cardinals running back Andre Ellington is expected to miss the game, which is a huge blow because so much of this offense is designed around his abilities. San Diego was 5-1-1 ATS last season as a road underdog and is 9-3-1 ATS in that role the last two seasons. Look for the Chargers to have too much on both sides of the ball with so many key players out for Arizona. 10* (491) San Diego Chargers |
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09-08-14 | NY Giants +6.5 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Home field advantage meant little yesterday as the host was just 4-9 ATS in the 13 games, winning only seven of 13 games outright. Many will be jumping on the home side on Monday to try and get some of that back but this is not the day to chase that as Monday night road teams have been cash cows on opening weekend as they are on a 12-4 ATS run since 2006 and while the matchups can dictate some of the success, it is clear that home teams are overvalued Monday night especially early in the season. 10 of those 16 games were won outright by the road team. The Giants are coming off a disappointing season so a quick start is could be the answer. After missing the playoffs the last two years, the schedule is on the side of New York as a win here could lead to a 5-0 start prior to back-to-back road games at Philadelphia and Dallas. The offense was ugly last season as the Giants managed a mere 18.4 ppg and they were outgained in 10 of 16 games. A new system has been put in place in order for Eli Manning to get rid of the ball quicker and help avoid a repeat where he was sacked 39 times and had the worse passer rating of his career. Even though we didn't see it in the preseason, I expect it to improve. Detroit closed on a four-game losing streak and while I do think they will be a better team this season, the Lions are laying too many points here. They have a wealth of offensive weapons and have Jim Caldwell as the new boss, but they have been chirping about being Super Bowl contenders and that is a little farfetched at this point. They have a tough matchup as only four of 16 opponents managed to outgain their average passer rating against the Giants last season and overall, they ranked sixth in passer rating allowed. The Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games while the Giants have covered four of their last five road games. 10* (489) New York Giants |
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09-08-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds +118 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The Cardinals are coming off a series win at Milwaukee and have now won eight of their last nine games to take control of the National League Central. St. Louis leads Pittsburgh by 4.5 games but despite taking three of four in Milwaukee, it is still a game under .500 on the road this season. The Reds have been close to the opposite of the Cardinals run as they are 2-7 over their last nine games after dropping two of three against the Mets over the weekend. Cincinnati is just playing out the string right now but it is still respectable at home as it is three games over .500 at Great American Ball Park. The Reds are 4-1 in their last five games as a home underdog and they send Dylan Axelrod to the hill who will be making his fourth start since joining the rotation. He has pitched well as he has a 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while allowing opposing hitter to bad just .219. The Cardinals are just 1-5 in their last six games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Shelby Miller gets the ball for St. Louis and he has been solid of late, tossing three straight quality outings including seven shutout innings against Pittsburgh last time out. Overall, he has not been very effective though with a 4.42 ERA on the road and he has struggled under the lights with a 4.81 ERA in 17 starts with the Cardinals going 6-11 in those games. Additionally, the Cardinals are 0-5 in Miller's last five starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game while the Reds are 5-2 in their last seven home games against right-handed starters. 10* (956) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-07-14 | Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -120 | 77 h 12 m | Show |
Tampa Bay has not been to the playoffs since 2007 but there is a real possibility that could change this season. The Buccaneers started 0-8 last season which cost head coach Greg Schiano his job and they went out and brought in Lovie Smith which I feel was the best hire in the offseason. He was great in Chicago but was fired despite a 10-6 record in his final season so he brings in a winning attitude right from the start. Tampa Bay has an easy schedule and is a sleeper pick to win the division just like Carolina was a season ago. The Panthers went from three straight losing seasons to winning the NFC South thanks to an 11-1 run that vaulted them into the playoffs. They did make an early exit in the playoffs and this division has notoriously been up for grabs every season as there has not been a repeat champion ever. Carolina has the second ranked scoring defense in the NFL last season and it will be stout once again but there are questions on the offense. The offensive line is a mess and quarterback Cam Newton is not healthy. Newton will be wearing a flak jacket to protect a hairline rib fracture. Leaving during the offseason were Steve Smith Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn Jr., leaving Newton with a host of new receivers including veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant so the offense is a big question right now. The Buccaneers defense will be better even though it wasn't horrible last season as along with the defensive minded Smith, Leslie Frazier takes over as defensive coordinator. The Panthers have failed to cover five straight season openers and the favorite is 6-1 ATS over the last seven meetings. 10* (484) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-07-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs +160 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
Chicago looks to avoid the three-game sweep against the Pirates today and I think the Cubs are in good shape to do so. Chicago had won six straight home games prior to the weekend and it is now still .500 at home on the season. Going back, the Cubs are 9-4 in their last 13 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The Pirates are now within a half-game of Atlanta and Milwaukee for the second Wild Card spot in the National League thanks to the two wins yesterday but they are still a dismal 29-40 on the road yet come in again as heavy favorites. The Pirates are 2-5 in their last seven games as a road favorite of -151 to -200. Travis Wood takes the hill for the Cubs and he has been pretty solid at home with a 3.89 ERA in 13 starts compared to a 5.68 ERA in 15 road starts. Prior to the last game, Woods had allowed four runs or more three times over eight starts and the Cubs went on to win all three games in his next outing. Since joining the Cubs, Wood has fared very against Pittsburgh as he has allowed three runs or fewer in all nine starts against them. Gerrit Cole counters for Pittsburgh and he has been all over the place as his 2014 season has been mired by mediocre stretches early and two long DL stints. He allowed five runs in 6.1 innings against the Cardinals last time out and the Pirates are 1-4 in his last five starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Additionally, the Cubs are 6-1 in their last seven home games against right-handed starters. 10* (910) Chicago Cubs |
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09-07-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
There are three home underdogs on Sunday and I feel this one is the best of the bunch. As said before, Week One of the regular season can be a tricky one for both bettors and linesmakers as setting the lines is tough with the main parameters based on last season's performances and this year's expectations. Two years ago, the Falcons hosted the NFC Championship. Last year, the wheels fell off and Atlanta went 4-12. After taking such a hard fall in 2013, I expect the Falcons to bounce back and while they may not be as good as two years ago, they won't be as bad as last season. Injuries played a big role in their regression but Atlanta was still competitive as of those 12 losses, seven were by a touchdown or less including five by four points or less. New Orleans meanwhile bounced back from a 7-9 season in 2012 without Sean Payton to a 12-6 record last season that again included a trip to the playoffs. Expectations are high once again for the Saints and they do have a schedule that sets up pretty well for success. They are a different team on the road however as they went 3-5 on the highway compared to 8-0 at home last season and they were a bust as a road chalk, going 0-4 ATS in that role. The home team has covered five straight meetings in this series and under head coach Mike Smith, the Falcons are 7-0 ATS at home during the first two weeks of the season. Atlanta falls into a great contrarian situation based on last season as we play on underdogs or pickems who won only 25 percent to 40 percent of their games last season. This situation is 41-12 ATS (77.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (464) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-07-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -1 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
After five straight seasons of making it to the playoffs including a Super Bowl win in 2012, the Ravens went just 8-8 last season and failed to make the postseason. Disappointing seasons from quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice contributed to that and even a little better output for them would have gotten them to the postseason considering five losses came by five points or less including four by a field goal or less. While Rice will not be in action as he is serving a two-game suspension, we are catching a great number here in the opening game. The Bengals are the slight favorites to repeat as AFC North champions following an 11-5 season a year ago. They could not get out of the first round of the playoffs for the third straight season though but they again will be right in the mix. Cincinnati was undefeated at home during the regular season but went just 3-5 on the road with just one of those wins coming against a team with a .500 or better record. The Bengals have dropped their season openers in five of the last seven years including the last two, going 1-4-1 ATS in that stretch. Baltimore meanwhile has won five of its last six openers with the one loss coming last year in Denver in a big revenge game for the Broncos following the playoff loss from the previous season. Baltimore has a great home field edge, going 39-9 during the regular season under Jim Harbaugh. The Ravens are 16-7 ATS L23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less in the Harbaugh era. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings and has covered four straight in this series. 10* (474) Baltimore Ravens |
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09-06-14 | Duke v. Troy +19.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 48 m | Show |
Because bettors have significant short-term memories, lines need to adjusted based on recent results and that is certainly the case here. Duke rolled over Elon last week by 39 points as it outgained the Phoenix by 239 total yards and it now hits the road for the first time this season. While it was a dominating win, Elon was coming off a 2-10 season and breaking in a new head coach. While the Blue Devils were 5-0 on the road last year, none of the wins came by more than what they are favored by this week. Troy meanwhile got pummeled at UAB, losing by 38 points and getting outgained by 218 yards. The Trojans return home where they have had only one losing season the last decade and of their 12 losses over that stretch, only one has been by more than 17 points which came in 2011. I think we will see a different team at Veterans Memorial Stadium where Troy has lost only once in its last 21 home openers. Now Duke comes in as a massive road favorite and it is completely inflated. Last season, the Blue Devils were 13.5-point home favorites against Troy and now they are favored by close to a touchdown more on the road. They were a road favorite twice last season at Memphis and Wake Forest but both of those lines were a touchdown or less. The last time Duke was a road favorite of more than 17 points? You have to go back to 1994. The Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (362) Troy Trojans |
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09-06-14 | Calgary Stampeders v. Edmonton Eskimos +3 | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
Calgary and Edmonton will meet for the second time in five days and the Eskimos will be out to avoid the annual holiday home-and-home sweep for the third straight season as well as looking to avoid the three-game season series sweep. Edmonton is 0-2 against the Stampeders and 7-0 against every other team and it wants to reverse that after losing Monday 28-13 while getting outgained by 158 yards. The Eskimos were without starting quarterback Mike Reilly who is nursing an injured thumb and while he is questionable for Saturday, the situation is a lot different this time around. Last week, backup quarterback Matt Nichols was told the day before the game that he would get the start so his preparation for the game was little to none. He has been taking snaps with the first team all week so he is more prepared should he have to make the start again. Also, All Pro slotback Fred Stamps, who has missed four consecutive games with a lower-body injury, was on the field and felt good about the work he put in and should be back which is a big boost to the offense. Calgary has won and covered four straight games and with just one loss on the season, by one point no less, it is favored for a reason. That is putting the vast majority of the public on the Stampeders which makes this is a big contrarian play. We have two solid situations favoring Edmonton. First, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive straight up losses going up against an opponent after three or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (496) Edmonton Eskimos |
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09-06-14 | Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +20 | Top | 41-3 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 15 m | Show |
We played against Vanderbilt last Thursday and easily won as the Commodores lost by 30 points against Temple and now they go from 8.5-point favorites to 20-point underdogs in the span of a week. That is what we call overreaction. The loss to the Owls was not a good one but Vanderbilt was outgained by just 73 yards and it was seven turnovers which led to 27 points, many of which came on a short field. Defensively, it was a pretty solid effort from Vanderbilt and that should continue here. Mississippi was on the opposite end of things last week as it defeated Boise St. by 22 points but only outgained the Broncos by 59 yards. The Rebels were up by only one point early in the fourth quarter before a barrage of four touchdowns led to the runaway victory. Two of those came on a short field while another came on a 76-yard bomb so Mississippi was fortunate the game was not closer at the end. Because of the two differing outcomes, the Rebels are now massive favorites on the road and while it is not at the Vanderbilt campus, it is at LP Field in Nashville. Mississippi has been favored by 20 points on the road only once over the last decade which came against Tulane and resulted in a loss and it doesn't deserve to be here against another SEC foe. The Commodores are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record while gong 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games anywhere against teams with a losing record. 10* (348) Vanderbilt Commodores |
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09-06-14 | Fresno State +11 v. Utah | Top | 27-59 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 46 m | Show |
Fresno St. is coming off a blowout loss against USC, it second straight loss to the Trojans going back to last season's Las Vegas Bowl. The Bulldogs opened up 10-0 last year and were making a run at a BCS Bowl game but a loss at San Jose St. killed that. Now they are trying to move on without quarterback Derek Carr who is now taking snaps with the Oakland Raiders. Saturday was not pretty for the defense as it allowed 701 yards against USC but we should see a huge improvement here as it takes a step down in class. Utah was solid on offense last week against Idaho St. but that should be the case when facing a school from the FCS. Last year, the Utes defeated Weber St. 70-7 only to come back and lose at home the next week against Oregon St. so big wins do not always lead to momentum boosts. Utah has gone 5-7 each of the last two seasons and it brings back 12 starters from last year so there isn't a whole lot of reason to believe it will be vastly improved. The Utes have been a double-digit home favorite over FBS teams four times the last three years, going 1-3 ATS in those games. The Bulldogs need to run the ball to be effective and last week, they gained more yards per rushing play (4.8) than passing play (4.4), which had not happened in a regular-season game since a victory at Nevada during the 2012 season. I like the bounceback angles here as bettors remember last week and ride it. The Utes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 20 points while the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. 10* (337) Fresno St. Bulldogs |
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09-06-14 | South Alabama -3 v. Kent State | Top | 23-13 | Win | 102 | 71 h 47 m | Show |
South Alabama kicks its season off with a road game at Kent St. as it looks to improve upon last season. The Jaguars went 2-11 in 2012 but closed last year by winning three straight games to finish 6-6 and even though it did not get a bowl game, that should change this year. They bring back 15 starters including nine on an offense that averaged 29.4 ppg and 426 ypg and the defense should be an improved unit as well as they return all four starters in the secondary. Kent St. is coming off a loss against Ohio last week 17-14 as the Bobcats kicked a 44-yard field goal on the last play of the game. It lost the game despite having a 4-0 advantage in turnover margin and that is a rarity which shows how poorly the Golden Flashes really played. They were outgained by 142 total yards and while the defense was solid in allowing only 17 points, the offense could muster up only 295 yards. The Golden Flashes are young up front and really struggled to run the ball last Saturday against Ohio and making matters worse, Trayion Durham is again questionable this week. Here we play against home teams off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Kent St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games while going 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss. South Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. 10* (335) South Alabama Jaguars |
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09-05-14 | Pittsburgh v. Boston College +4 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
Boston College and Pittsburgh meet for the first time since 2004 when they were in the Big East. The Eagles are coming off an impressive opener as it was able to take down Massachusetts with relative ease after a slow start. Boston College outgained the Minutemen by 309 total yards and while Massachusetts is expected to be one of the worst teams in the country, it was a big game for the Boston College offense which lost a ton from last season. The Eagles gained 511 total yards and Florida transfer Tyler Murphy was outstanding at quarterback. Pittsburgh was equally impressive as it destroyed Delaware 62-0, outgaining the Blue Hens by 444 total yards. As dominating as it was, the Panthers are another team that is going through some rebuilding changes, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Sure they allowed only 57 total yards but it is tough to gauge exactly how good that is when playing an FCS opponent and a very average one at that. Last season, the Eagles went 5-1 at Alumni Stadium, giving Florida St. a competitive game in their only defeat. They were able to cover both games as a home underdog and it is hard to substantiate them being a home underdog here with so many question marks still looming on the other side. Boston College falls into a great early season situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive straight up wins, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent). 10* (304) Boston College Eagles |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks -5.5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued last season when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. This year, the past Super Bowl Champion gets to host again as Seattle opens the season at home and this is a good spot for the defending champ to open the season with a victory and improve to 12-2 in season openers the last 14 years. The Seahawks home field edge is the best in football as they have won 17 of their last 18 home games, losing last year to Arizona as Russell Wilson had one of his worst starts in his young career. Green Bay looks to start the season strong following a poor season last year that was directly related to Aaron Rodgers being out for a portion of the season. The Packers should be able to get back into the elite club of the NFL but this is not the place to start as this is a bad spot and a bad matchup. The defense struggles against quarterbacks that move and while the Packers offense is one of the best, these are the defenses they struggle against the most. Going back, Seattle is 38-18-1 ATS in its last 57 home games while going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last sox home games as a favorite of a touchdown or less. Under Pete Carroll, Seattle is 25-10 ATS in its 35 home games. Green Bay is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog. 10* (462) Seattle Seahawks |
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09-04-14 | Arizona v. Texas-San Antonio +7.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
UTSA came through for us last Friday and while it wasn't overly dominating, it was good enough to put us back on them here. The Roadrunners won by 20 points thanks to a +3 turnover margin advantage but the potential was there to be more dictating, 14 penalties for 115 yards limited their production on both sides. Still, the defense was outstanding as it allowed only 213 yards against a potentially potent offense and it is hard to look past the experience of this team as UTSA has 12 starters back. Arizona was very impressive last week as it destroyed UNLV by 45 points while outgaining the Rebels by 416 total yards. The Wildcats put up 787 total yards which was the most of any team last weekend so the Roadrunners will have their hands full but I expect them to be up to the task in their home opener. This is a very young Arizona offense so we cannot take last week's performance too serious against a UNLV team that has a bowl ban and motivation is low. UTSA lost by 25 points at Arizona last year but it was only outgained by 43 total yards and it will be out for revenge. Arizona is 3-14 ERA in its last 17 road games after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more yards while UTSA falls into a solid situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners |
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09-04-14 | Cincinnati Reds +145 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
It has been a lost season for Cincinnati as injuries and an offense that could never get rolling has now dropped the Reds seven games under .500. They have lost four of their first five games on this roadtrip as the offense has managed only 10 runs total and while it doesn't look to get much better tonight, something says Cincinnati gets it going here as it is 4-1 in its last five games after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. The Orioles have won eight of 10 games on their current homestand which ends after tonight and things are looking good for them to win the American League East. Pitching has gotten it done and Baltimore is hoping that continues tonight but we are going contrarian and against Chris Tillman who has been unbeatable for weeks. Baltimore has won his last seven starts and he has yet to lose since the All Star break, going 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in nine starts. The Orioles have won his last six home starts and are now paying the price for that. Cincinnati counters with Mike Leake who is also on a solid run but he has been unable to come up with the wins. Six of his last seven starts have been quality outings including three straight with the last two resulting in no earned runs allowed. Run support has hurt him during the stretch but he brings in a solid 3.08 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his nighttime starts. He can no doubt keep Cincinnati in this one and at this price coupled with his recent work, it is too good to pass up. 10* (965) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-01-14 | Miami (Florida) +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -106 | 108 h 38 m | Show |
The Miami Hurricanes made some noise last season by starting off 7-0 and making it as high as seventh in the polls but then they ran into Florida St. and were blown out, the start of three straight losses. While the start of last season was special, it could be even better in 2014 as Miami enters this season free of distractions with there no longer being a cloud hanging over the program because of NCAA investigations. Last season, we talked about how freshman quarterback Jameis Winston was the real deal before his first game against Pittsburgh and that proved correct. Miami is in a similar situation this season as it is also starting a freshman quarterback in Brad Kaaya and he too is the real deal. With the healthy return of running back Duke Johnson and a great corps of receivers, the offense should be solid and will go up against a Louisville defense that returns only four starters from last season. Miami is catching Louisville at the best possible time as the Cardinals break in a new quarterback after Teddy Bridgewater fled to the NFL and his replacement does not have the same hype. Will Gardner takes over and while he has had a great spring and fall, he will be without his top target as receiver Devante Parker is out with a foot injury and the Preseason ACC First Team players is expected to miss six weeks. That is a big loss for sure. The Hurricanes defense was atrocious last season but they bring back seven starters and the defense will be tougher and more disrupting. The game is a rematch of last season's Russell Athletic Bowl, a game #18 Louisville won 36-9 so the Hurricanes will be out for revenge and ruin the Cardinals ACC Debut. Miami is 10-1 ATS under head coach Al Golden when the line is +3 to -3 while going 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games as conference underdogs of seven points or less. 10* (209) Miami Hurricanes |
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09-01-14 | Toronto Argonauts v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats +2 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 99 h 23 m | Show |
How bad is the East Division in the CFL? Toronto has a two-game edge in the win column despite being 3-6 on the season so that shows how bad things are below the Argonauts. But even with that, the fact that Toronto is a road favorite here is a surprise even if it is against a team with just one victory. Hamilton has gotten off to a rough start after making it to the Grey Cup Final a season ago as it is 1-6 with the lone victory coming against expansion Ottawa earlier in the season. That victory has been sandwiched by three-game losing skids and the current one includes a 0-3 ATS mark. Four of Hamilton's losses have been by a touchdown or less though and it has not had an easy schedule so far but the Tiger Cats will have an edge here. They are coming off their bye week and they are making their home debut at the brand new Tim Hortons Field. The 22,500-seat stadium was originally scheduled to open in July, but has been plagued with delays, many attributed to the unusually long and cold winter. The Tiger Cats have been playing their home games at McMaster University so this is a big boost. The Argonauts are getting outscored by close to three ppg while Hamilton is getting outscored by 5.1 ppg which is a minimal difference. The big difference though is with the home/road splits as the Tiger Cats are just about dead even at home while Toronto is getting outscored by 8.2 ppg on the road. Hamilton falls into a solid situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second half of the season. This situation is 59-26 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (286) Hamilton Tiger Cats |
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08-31-14 | Milwaukee Brewers +151 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 5-15 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Despite four straight losses, Milwaukee remains in first place in the National League Central but it is by just one game. The offense has managed only six runs over this stretch but I think that changes today. The Giants meanwhile have won five straight games to move to within two and a half game of the Dodgers in the National League West. While the records are dead even, the line is not reflecting that and we take advantage of the value. Madison Bumgarner is coming off his best start of the season as he carried a perfect game into the eighth inning before settling for a one hitter. That was his fifth straight quality start but his numbers at home offset that as he has a 4.58 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 13 starts with the Giants going just 5-8 in those games. Kyle Lohse counters for the Brewers and he is coming off a solid outing last time out against the Padres and while his numbers on the road are not as good as they are at home, the Brewers are 10-6 in his 16 road starts and they are 7-0 in Lohse's last seven starts against the National League West. 10* (957) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-30-14 | LSU v. Wisconsin +5 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 54 m | Show |
LSU is once again one of the top teams in the SEC despite losing a ton of talent to the NFL including its starting quarterback, starting running back and top two receivers. The Tigers are now in rebuilding mode and while the recruiting was once again strong, we may see some early issues in the beginning of the season. LSU is going to pound the ball on the ground because of the lack of experience at quarterback. The Tigers will start either sophomore Anthony Jennings or true freshman Brandon Harris and they have never had a true first-year player start a season opener at quarterback. Wisconsin went 9-3 during the regular season last year with all three losses coming by a touchdown or less and the Badgers are the favorite to win the Big Ten West. Wisconsin brings back only 10 returning starters but has 23 different players who made at least one start last year so there is plenty of depth and experience. While the Tigers have never lost a non-conference regular season game under head coach Les Miles, going 45-0 over that stretch, they have not faced too many tests along the way either. In the past 10 years, Wisconsin is 34-2 against non-conference opponents in the regular season, with their only two losses coming to Oregon State in 2012 and Arizona State in 2013, both of which ended with controversial calls against Wisconsin. This game takes place in Houston so there is no real home field edge for either side although LSU should have the higher fan base but it will be insignificant. These two teams are more evenly matched than what the line is telling us and being on a neutral field, I have this game as a pickem so we are catching significant value. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first two weeks of the year, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (204) Wisconsin Badgers |
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08-30-14 | Minnesota Twins +173 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Baltimore took the opener of this series last night to make it two straight wins and four of five to open this homestand. The Orioles are seven games ahead of the Yankees in the American League East but we will be going against them in contrarian fashion. The Twins have lost five of six to drop into last place in the American League Central but I like the situation they are in tonight. Betting Kyle Gibson in these spots has been a favorite of mine this season. His season has been one of the strangest in recent recollection based on which Gibson actually shows up. Looking at his overall numbers will give you a very dim picture of what he has actually done. He has been hit or miss as 12 of his 25 starts have been non-quality outings but when he is on, he is really on. In his 13 quality performances, he has allowed a total of eight runs in 91 innings for an incredible 0.89 ERA. And the best part is that he has followed up those previous 12 non-quality games with a quality gem on nine different occasions and he is coming off a game where he allowed five runs in 4.2 innings against Detroit. Chris Tillman meanwhile has been unbeatable of late as Baltimore has won his last six starts and he has tossed five straight quality outings. And now he is favored by the most he has been favored by all season so we are jumping on the value. Baltimore has been favored by -144 or more three times in his starts and it is 0-3 in those games. The streak continues tonight. 10* (923) Minnesota Twins |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia -7.5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 101 | 96 h 25 m | Show |
After consecutive double-digit winning seasons, Georgia took a step backward last year with only eight wins and finished the season with an 8-5 record after losing to Nebraska in the Gator Bowl. The Bulldogs suffered through numerous injuries to key players on offense, came into the season with just three returning starters on defense, were -7 in turnover margin and suffered four of their losses by five points or less. All of that equates to a big turnaround this year and they have dropped at low as 18-1 in some spots to win the National Championship Game. Granted, Georgia has to move on without Aaron Murray at quarterback but Hutson Mason is very skilled and he has a lot around him including a healthy Todd Gurley at running back. The defense now brings back eight starters and will be vastly improved. The good news here is they face a Clemson offense that lost some huge impact players including quarterback Taj Boyd, receiver Sammy Watkins and running back Roderick McDowell. I do expect Clemson to have a solid season but this is not the opponent it wants to be facing in its first game of the season ,especially one that is playing with revenge. The Tigers won the meeting last year by a field goal despite getting outgained by 78 total yards and the change in venue only solidifies the revenge factor as Georgia has won 16 straight home openers and are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against the ACC. The number may seem big here as the teams are only four spots away in the Preseason AP Poll but we all know those rankings mean little. This could be considered a statement game for Georgia as since 2008, it has started every season ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 but only once did it finish the season ranked higher than where it started. This is a big game to get the season rolling. 10* (182) Georgia Bulldogs |
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08-29-14 | Texas-San Antonio +11 v. Houston | Top | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 83 h 21 m | Show |
Houston comes into the season as a sleeper team from the AAC as it returns 17 starters from last year's 8-5 squad. The Cougars will be potent once again on offense but the issue is the defense where they allowed big numbers once again under head coach Tony Levine, his second with the program. Houston benefited from a +25 turnover margin last season and those things certainly tend to reverse themselves or at least become more in line to the median the following year. Texas-San Antonio is also coming off a wining season and this is a team that could fly under the radar for at least the first part of the season. The Roadrunner have only been in existence since 2009 and didn't start competing until 2011 but having Larry Coker as the head coach was a perfect hire for a new program. They were ineligible for a bowl game last season and they bring a lot of momentum into this season as they won their last five games and carrying that over should not be an issue with 20 starts returning from last year. UTSA is picked to win the C-USA West by a lot of outlets and the schedule sets up well to do so. They went -7 in turnover margin last season and that comes directly into play in this one as the Roadrunners coughed it up five times against Houston last year in a 59-28 loss. Making it even more frustrating is the fact that UTSA actually outgained Houston by two total yards in that game signaling it was a lot closer than the final score indicated. UTSA was favored in that game by a field goal so now we are seeing a line move that is roughly 14 points in most spots and that is too big of an adjustment. The Roadrunners are 9-3 ATS lifetime on the road and this atmosphere will not be intimidating to the them at all. 10* (151) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners |
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08-28-14 | Rutgers +8 v. Washington State | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 197 h 12 m | Show |
Rutgers begins its first season in the Big Ten and many are picking the Scarlet Knights to finish last in the conference in addition to last in the East Division. While they probably won't be going bowling after making the postseason the last three years, this is still a very talented team that returns 16 starters from last season and they should be a competitive bunch. The schedule is not only brutal but they are facing 12 teams they did not face last season so there will be no familiarity in gameplanning. Rutgers has a good opportunity to open the season 4-1 however as this is a very winnable game in my opinion. Washington St. is nothing special and this game isn't even taking place on its home field as it is being played in Seattle. The Cougars will clearly have the fan base but it is just not the same. They finished 6-6 last season and went to a bowl game for the first time since 2003 but lost to Colorado St. There is little optimism for improvement this year and while the offense should again be potent, the loss of three starters on the offensive line is a concern. Washington St. has been favored against a BCS opponent just three times in the Mike Leach era. It was a 1.5-point favorite against California and Utah last year and while it won both games, there is little reason to believe that the Cougars should be more than a touchdown favorite here. Rutgers falls into a great contrarian as we play on any team in the first two weeks of the year, bowl team from last season who lost four or more of their last 5 games and finished with a losing record. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (143) Rutgers Scarlet Knights |
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08-28-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 39 | Top | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
We waited until late in the week to release the final week of the preseason to try and get as much information as possible as to what a lot of the decisions are going to be in these normally meaningless games to end the exhibition year. There are a lot of factors that go into these final games and motivation is at the top of the list. This comes down to the coaching philosophy and how they want to handle the playing time of the regulars as well as the importance of a win heading into the regular season. Arizona travels to San Diego for the final preseason game of the year for both sides and it is a very interesting dynamic in play because these two teams open the regular season playing each other on Monday night. Which team will be out to win more? It really doesn't even matter here as the big plan for both sides is to keep this game as vanilla as possible and not give up too much away on offense to give the other team an edge heading into Week One. That is the biggest factor in this play. The Cardinals' starters won't play Thursday at San Diego head coach Bruce Arians said. Also, he announced on Monday that fourth-round draft choice Logan Thomas would start and play the entire game against San Diego. "You stay generic," Arians said. "We'll keep it as simple as possible." On the other side, the same holds true as the Chargers starters are unlikely to see action either. All of this adds up to a low scoring game. 10* Under (131) Arizona Cardinals/(132) San Diego Chargers |
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08-28-14 | Tulane v. Tulsa -5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 195 h 13 m | Show |
It was a huge disappointing season for Tulsa last year. The Golden Hurricane finished 3-9 overall including 2-6 in C-USA and now they take the jump to the much more competitive AAC. The good news is that Tulsa should be much more competitive as well. Last season, they had just nine starters coming back from an 11-3 season in 2012 which was its third straight winning season. Additionally, the Golden Hurricane suffered a ton of injuries along the way but now they are healthy and have 15 starters back including 10 on the defensive side of the ball. Losing their last five home games last season should have them pretty amped up come Thursday night on national television. Tulane was a pleasant surprise last season as it went 7-5 and went to its first bowl game since 2002 but ended up losing to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl. Overall, the Green Wave dropped four of their last five games so they come in with very little momentum and they will also have to make up for the loss of eight starters. They still struggled away from home last season despite the overall success as they were 2-4 in true road games and have not won more than two road games in a season in over a decade. Tulsa will be playing with revenge in mind as it lost at Tulane 14-7 which was the first loss to the Green Wave after eight straight wins. All of those wins were covers as well and the last four home victories for Tulsa over the Green Wave were by 35, 28, 49 and 35 points and with these teams going in different directions from last season, I expect an easy win for the home team here. 10* (138) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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08-28-14 | NY Jets +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 7-37 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
We waited until late in the week to release the final week of the preseason to try and get as much information as possible as to what a lot of the decisions are going to be in these normally meaningless games to end the exhibition year. There are a lot of factors that go into these final games and motivation is at the top of the list. This comes down to the coaching philosophy and how they want to handle the playing time of the regulars as well as the importance of a win heading into the regular season. The Jets are coming off a loss to the Giants last week after opening the preseason 2-0 so we will see some motivation to get back into the win column before the regular season. Rex Ryan does not play his starters in the final preseason game and that won't change here. That is fine as according to Eagles head coach Chip Kelly, the Eagles' starters will not play in team's final preseason game either. Kelly also announced that a few key backup players will be sitting out as well. Those players veteran include running back Darren Sproles and backup quarterback Mark Sanchez. Second year quarterback Matt Barkley gets the start against New York. The Jets have two great preseason situations on their side. First, we play against any team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after one or more consecutive straight up wins, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1993. Second, we play on any NFL preseason road underdog of 3.5 points or less, coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing an opponent coming off a straight up and ATS win. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1980. 10* (109) New York Jets |
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08-28-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +3 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
We waited until late in the week to release the final week of the preseason to try and get as much information as possible as to what a lot of the decisions are going to be in these normally meaningless games to end the exhibition year. There are a lot of factors that go into these final games and motivation is at the top of the list. This comes down to the coaching philosophy and how they want to handle the playing time of the regulars as well as the importance of a win heading into the regular season. This will be the fifth straight season that the two teams meet in the fourth and final preseason game with the teams splitting the first four meetings. Since the start of the offseason program in April, Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien have been competing for the top backup job and that will continue into this game. Even though they are veterans and many will think they have an edge based on experience, the fourth preseason game presents its challenges for experienced quarterbacks like these two because they'll be trying to direct an offense filled with players trying to make one final impression for an NFL job. For the Chiefs, quarterback Chase Daniel will start against Green Bay followed by Aaron Murray and Tyler Bray. Not exactly prime options but all have looked good in the preseason and all three of them have quarterback passer rating higher than starter Alex Smith. The Chiefs have two great preseason situations on their side. First, we play on underdogs or pickems with a losing record coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) over the last 10 seasons including a perfect 3-0 ATS this preseason. Second, we play on any NFL preseason road underdog of 3.5 points or less, coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing an opponent coming off a straight up and ATS win. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1980. 10* (111) Kansas City Chiefs |
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08-28-14 | Colorado Rockies +178 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with Colorado last night as the Giants belted a two-out, two-run walkoff home run to ensure at least a split in this series. They have taken the first two games after dropping the series opener but the Rockies are in good position to force that split with a pitching matchup that is not in line with this moneyline. San Francisco remains five games behind the Dodgers in the National League West but it is a game and a half ahead of the Braves and Pirates for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. Colorado continues to struggle on the road as its 19 wins are the fewest in baseball and it isn't even close. However, playing them in the right spots is necessary and this is one of those. Tim Lincecum was sent to the Giants bullpen after a stretch of rough starts and he will be replaced by Yusmeiro Petit and that is far from an upgrade. While Petit has been solid in the bullpen as he has retired 38 straight batters, he has a 6.32 ERA over six spot starts so he certainly cannot be trusted when being stretched out. Colorado counters with Jordan Lyles and while he has been inconsistent, most of that has been at Coors Field. He has a 4.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in eight home starts compared to a 3.57 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in eight road starts. The reason he has not an many wins on the road as he should is due to run support but that should change today. The Rockies are 4-1 in Lyles' last five starts against teams with a winning record while the Giants are 7-20 in their last 27 games against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is between 1.35 and 1.45. 10* (903) Colorado Rockies |
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08-24-14 | Saskatchewan Roughriders +3 v. B.C. Lions | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
After slow starts for each team, both Saskatchewan and British Columbia are riding winning streaks with the Roughriders on a four-game winning streak and the Lions on a three-game winning streak. The short price should have the majority on the home side but we will be going against that with Saskatchewan coming in with some revenge in mind. The Roughriders lost back in mid-July at home by 13 points against British Columbia and that was their last defeat before this current winning streak. We played against them last week against Montreal for the lookahead reason and they escaped with a five-point win in what was a pretty ugly victory. Saskatchewan has played a very easy schedule thus far with five of its seven games coming against the much weaker Eastern Conference but the Lions haven't exactly been tested that much either. Half of their games have come against the Eastern Conference and while they have a couple quality wins in the West, losses against Montreal and Winnipeg do not look that good. They are just 2-2 at home but the fact they have covered three straight games gives us a great go against spot. We play against any team with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 37-12 ATS (75.5 percent) over the last also seasons. Additionally, we have a revenge situation on our side as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite. This situation is 71-35 ATS (67 percent) since 1996 including going 24-9 ATS (72.7 percent) the last five years. In a game that can go either way, we will grab the points and gladly accept anything above the key number of +3. 10* (297) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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08-23-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Indianapolis Colts -1 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -125 | 104 h 51 m | Show |
The Colts are coming off a devastating loss against the Giants and preseason or not, they need to recover from that prior to when the real games count. Indianapolis led New York 26-0 in the fourth quarter only to give up 27 unanswered points and lose by a point in front of the home crowd. It was pretty ironic considering the Colts won their last game at home thanks to a huge comeback against Kansas City in the playoffs last season. Indianapolis is now 0-2 and this is the final home game of the preseason and it comes at a good time when the starters will see extended playing time. Coach Chuck Pagano called the effort against the Giants unacceptable so we will no doubt see full effort on Saturday. "Losing is never okay," he said. "Preseason, regular season, unacceptable. We will never get used to that." The Saints are 2-0 despite losing the yardage battle in both games and while they will be one of the top teams in the league this season, catching them undefeated and playing on the road is a great spot to go against them. After Sean Payton's interview following indoor practices on Monday, it sounds like Drew Brees is going to return to action and play in Saturday's matchup but the question remains how long he will play. The fact that Brees is expected to play on Saturday is actually good news for the Colts as it gives the defense an opportunity to face a top caliber quarterback. He has been out with an abdominal injury so we likely will not see him too much as to not risk further injury. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 29-10 ATS (74.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (272) Indianapolis Colts |
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08-23-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
After dropping its last three games last season, Tampa Bay has opened the Lovie Smith era with a pair of preseason losses and with this being the most important game during the exhibition season, look for the Buccaneers to come out and get a much needed win to boost the confidence. Tampa Bay has dropped both games by six points but it has shown signs of improvement, especially on the offensive side of the ball despite not showing up on the scoreboard. The starters are expected to play into the second half in Buffalo. The Bills are playing their fourth game after a 1-2 start and this is the first home game for them this preseason so that will certainly be a big boost. All of their games have been close but the offense is still a major concern as the first team has yet to find the endzone. Like Tampa Bay, the starters will likely play into the second half but unlike Tampa Bay, the need to win is not there as right now it is more about tightening things up. More yards have been gained by the first-team offense each week, but if a touchdown isn't scored this week, many will wonder how much, if any progress, the unit has made this offseason. Tampa Bay also falls into a great preseason situation where we play on underdogs or pickems that are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite, with a losing record. This situation is 46-20 ATS (69.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after two or more consecutive ATS losses while Buffalo is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games after one or more consecutive ATS losses. 10* (263) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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08-23-14 | Toronto Argonauts +7.5 v. Edmonton Eskimos | Top | 27-41 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Edmonton continues to surprise this year s it is now 6-1 following its win at Ottawa over the weekend to improve to a perfect 4-0 on the road. The Eskimos dominated the stats in the game against the RedBlacks but barely walked away with the victory as it was definitely a tough game to get up for. We are playing against them again this week not only because of what has taken place in the past but what is upcoming. Edmonton's lone loss this season came against Calgary at home and following this game, it has back-to-back games against the Stampeders in a span of six days so it is very likely that a lookahead could get in the way here. The value is definitely on the other side as the Eskimos are now favored by the most they have been favored by all season. Toronto played two games last week with the first game on Tuesday resulting in a win over Winnipeg but it gave it back on Sunday in a loss against British Columbia. It was the first time since opening week that the Argonauts were outgained so despite being 3-5, they are outgaining opponents by an average of 47.4 ypg. While this is the most that Edmonton has been favored by this season, it is also the most that Toronto has been an underdog by this year and anything over a touchdown is considered huge at this point. The Argonauts fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons with 19 of those games being won outright. 10* (293) Toronto Argonauts |
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