For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL |Â CFB |Â MLB |Â NBA |Â CBB |Â NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-21-15 | Connecticut Sun v. LA Sparks +2 | Top | 76-68 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Connecticut is off to a awesome start this season as after opening up with a loss against Washington, it has reeled off five straight winners and most impressive for our purposes, the Sun have covered every game this season. They have underdogs in all of those however and now they are favored for the first time this season and it is a tough spot after coming off an upset win in overtime against Phoenix which snapped the Mercury's 22-game home winning streak. Los Angeles has been on the other side of things as they are 0-3 both straight up and against the number. These are the contrarian plays that we love playing on however and we take advantage of the adjusted line. 10* (604) Los Angeles Sparks |
|||||||
06-21-15 | San Diego Padres +104 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
The Padres have won two of three after their 8-1 win last night and look to go back over .500 on the highway with a win today. Arizona meanwhile has been back and forth of late since a four-game winning streak and the offense has been poor, averaging just 2.0 rpg over its last five games. That is good news for Andrew Cashner who has been brutal of late but is still considered one of the better pitchers around. After posting four straight quality outings to end May, he has an 8.59 ERA over his last four starts, none of which have been quality. This is the time to jump on however as he has dominated the Diamondbacks by allowing three runs or less in six straight starts. Jeremy Hellickson counters for the Diamondbacks and he has been a lot better since a bad start to the season. Still, he has struggled at home with a 5.91 ERA and 1.62 WHIP and in three starts against San Diego, he has been lit up for an 8.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. 10* (907) San Diego Padres |
|||||||
06-21-15 | Boston Red Sox +128 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 13-2 | Win | 128 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
The Red Sox are having a tough season but because they are a public darling, the linesmakers are forced to overinflate their numbers and on the season, they have been the chalk in 52 of 70 games. The value is on their side today however as they look to win the series and end this roadtrip with a winning record. Kansas City has won five of its last six games which is helping with this number as is the recent work of Chris Young. He is having a surprisingly good season by posting a 1.98 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over eight starts and he is coming off two straight games where he allowed no runs, covering 13.1 innings. He has made just one daytime start and it wasn't pretty where he has a 4.91 ERA. Wade Miley has an awful start to the season with a 6.91 ERA through his first six starts but he has been much better since then as he has posted five quality outings over his last seven starts. This is his first time as an underdog since mid-May and Boston is 3-1 in that role with him this season. 10* (921) Boston Red Sox |
|||||||
06-21-15 | Detroit Tigers +154 v. New York Yankees | Top | 12-4 | Win | 154 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
The Tigers were mauled last night which was their fourth straight loss to fall even further back in the American League Central. The Yankees meanwhile, winners of four straight games, kept pace with Tampa Bay but we will back Detroit again today. I have been critical of Anibal Sanchez at times as I feel he is overpriced for what he can bring to the table some of the time. He has been an underdog only once this season and today he is by far the biggest dog so far and the value is simply too good to let go by. In three career Yankee Stadium starts, he has a 0.92 ERA and going back, the Tigers are 9-1 in his last 10 road starts against teams with a winning record.. He goes against Masahiro Tanaka who has been solid since coming off the disabled list three starts ago and having him at this price is normal. He has been average at home however with a 4.50 ERA in three starts and over the last four starts, the Yankees have averaged just 3.0 rpg on offense. 10* (915) Detroit Tigers |
|||||||
06-20-15 | San Francisco Giants +136 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 6-2 | Win | 136 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The Giants won the opener of this series last night to make it two straight wins and I feel they carry that into today. Tim Hudson has been up and down this season and after two straight non-quality starts, I expect him to turn that around Saturday. He shut the Dodgers out for 6.1 innings in his first start against them this season which also came against Carlos Frias who has a lower ERA than Hudson but a much higher WHIP that is at 1.51. He has been worse at home than on the road where he has posted a 5.10 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over 30 innings. The Giants are 5-1 in Hudson's last six starts as a road underdog while the Dodgers are 1-5 in Frias' last six starts as a favorite. 10* (961) San Francisco Giants |
|||||||
06-20-15 | Detroit Tigers +108 v. New York Yankees | Top | 3-14 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The Yankees are keeping their hold on second place in the American League East thanks to three straight wins while the Tigers are now 5.5 games out of first place in the American League Central following their third straight loss. They have a good advantage tonight however with Alfredo Simon on the hill as he has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts to lower his numbers to a 2.58 ERA and 1.16 WHIP overall. Detroit has won eight of his 12 starts and it is 5-2 in his last seven starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Nathan Eovaldi is coming off a blowup start in his last outing against his former team and while he does have some solid starts under his best, only four of his 13 starts have been quality performances. 10* (975) Detroit Tigers |
|||||||
06-20-15 | Los Angeles Angels +123 v. Oakland A's | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Oakland has dropped two straight games following a four-game winning streak, the latter being a fluke in my opinion. The Angels have won two straight games and are now just 4.5 games out of first place in the American League West. Jered Weaver has posted three straight non-quality outings as the long ball has really hurt him but this comes after a five-game quality start streak so he is more than capable of a recovery today. Jesse Hahn has been more consistent but he is not getting much out of as Oakland has won just five of his 13 starts including only two of seven at home. The Angels are 8-3 in Weaver's last 11 road starts against teams with a losing record while the are 1-5 in Hahn's last six starts against the American League West. 10* (969) Los Angeles Angels |
|||||||
06-19-15 | Milwaukee Brewers +129 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 9-5 | Win | 129 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is the perfect setup for a contrarian play on Milwaukee and we are getting a great price on top of it. The Brewers won their first two games against Washington to start last weekend but lost the final two and proceeded to then get swept against the Royals in the four-game home-and-home set. The Rockies meanwhile are also on a losing skid as they lost all four games against the Astros in the early week Interleague setup which made put them on a current 1-8 run over their last nine games. The Brewers skid along with Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa's recent run is what puts this into contrarian status as he has been the lone consistent starter on the staff. Colorado has won his last five starts thanks to good pitching and a strong offense behind him but he is still having control issues which has put his WHIP at a below average 1.41 and at home that balloons to 1.73 to go along with a 6.99 ERA. Milwaukee counters with Taylor Jungmann whose Major League career has gotten off to a solid start as he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through his first two outings. The Rockies haw won just one of their last seven games against right-handed starters. 10* (909) Milwaukee Brewers |
|||||||
06-19-15 | Tampa Bay Rays +147 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 4-1 | Win | 147 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
We lost a tough one on the Cubs last night against Cleveland as a rain delay messed up the flow of the game and the Indians were able to take the shortened three-game set against Chicago. They have been horribly inconsistent this season, especially at home where they are now just 13-19 and since the start of June, the Indians are 0-6 over their last six games following a win. Tampa Bay has been a big surprise this season as it currently sits in first place in the American League East thanks to a current 6-1 run and going back further, the Rays have won 14 of their last 19 games. Additionally, they have won seven of their last eight road games and send Nathan Karns to the hill who is on a very solid run. Over his last nine starts, he has a 2.88 ERA and 1.22 WHIP and his road work has been the most impressive where he possesses a 1.95 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over five starts. Carlos Carrasco has been favored in his last seven starts and his home lines have been comparable to tonight and there is not a lot to back it up. He has a 5.28 ERA here with the Indians going just 3-3 in his six starts and going back, they are 2-11 in Carrasco's last 13 series opening starts. 10* (919) Tampa Bay Rays |
|||||||
06-19-15 | Tulsa Shock v. Washington Mystics OVER 145.5 | Top | 86-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
We lost with the Washington and Atlanta over last Friday and while we were tempted to take the over again on Sunday, the situation was not very favorable and it is a good thing we stayed off. The Mystics and Liberty stayed under by 8.5 points which made it four straight unders for Washington as the defense has been outstanding during this stretch. The Mystics face a tough test tonight however as Tulsa is ranked second in the WNBA in points scored with 81 ppg and pace is a big part of that as the Shock average a league high 73.4 attempts per game. Tulsa has been involved in three straight unders which is also keeping this number lower than expected. The offense has done its part while the defense has certainly overachieved during this stretch as they have allowed just 56 ppg after giving up 83 and 93 points in their first two games. Additionally, this has been a lower scoring series with eight of the last 10 meetings going below the total but tonight's number is the lowest of all of those so that history means little. Look for a high scoring game tonight as we buck the recent low scoring trends. 10* Over (601) Tulsa Shock/(602) Washington Mystics |
|||||||
06-18-15 | Chicago Cubs +153 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Here we are getting the much better team and the better starting pitcher at a huge underdog price and it is certainly too good to pass up. The Cubs were shutout on Tuesday and definitely got their revenge last night as they pounded Cleveland 17-0 and they will be out for the series win tonight. They improved to 35-28 overall including moving two games over .500 on the road. Cleveland fell to 30-34 and home has not been kind as the Indians are just 12-19 at Progressive Field. Playing the better teams has been a real struggles as the Indians are 5-17 in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record. Danny Salazar gets the ball for Cleveland and he is the big reason the price is so high as he is having a solid season and the Indians are 8-3 in his 11 starts. He has a 3.54 ERA and just six of 11 starts have been quality so while he has been good, he has been far from dominating. Jason Hammel counters for Chicago and while he has a 2.81 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, the Cubs are just 6-6 in his 12 starts which is also helping with the dog price. Hammel has a 1.89 ERA in seven night starts and the Cubs are 5-2 in those games. 10* (967) Chicago Cubs |
|||||||
06-18-15 | Boston Red Sox v. Atlanta Braves +104 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
The Red Sox continue to get too respect and there is no reason why. They are 11 games under .500 overall including a 12-21 record on the road yet they are the road favorite tonight. This is one of those instances where I think the line could shift so it be best to bet early. The Red Sox are 0-7 in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while dropping four straight as road favorites. Atlanta continues to hang around as it is just 3.5 games out in the National League East despite being two games under .500. The Braves are 14-4 in their last 18 Interleague home games against teams with a losing record. Shelby Miller has been awesome this season as he has a 2.02 ERA and 1.03 WHIP through 13 starts, 10 of those being quality outings. He has been even better at home and is riding a four-game quality start streak. Boston sends Clay Buchholz to the hill and after five straight quality outings, he has not been sharp for two straight games, allowing eight runs over 10.2 innings. Despite solid road numbers, the Red Sox are just 2-4 in his six road starts and they are 0-5 in his last five starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. 10* (970) Atlanta Braves |
|||||||
06-18-15 | Miami Marlins +135 v. New York Yankees | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
The Yankees continue to keep their hold on first place in the American League East as they bounced back with a win last night after losing the first two games in Miami. They have definitely been a better home team than road team but feel they are overpriced in this matchup. The Marlins have remained inconsistent the entire season but if there is any consolation, they are just seven games out in the underachieving National League East. They will be out to snap a four-game road losing streak behind Mat Latos who was superb in his last start against the Rockies, striking out 11 and allowing just one run over seven innings. He just came off the disabled list which obviously did him some good after posting two horrible games prior to that. He has a 2.42 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road in four starts but the offense has let him down by averaging only 2.5 rpg and that changes tonight. C.C. Sabathia has been all over the place this season and he is commanding a price from he was actually a dominating pitcher. He has a 5.38 ERA overall including a 9.00 ERA in four home starts. Going back, the Yankees are 1-6 in Sabathia's last seven starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (963) Miami Marlins |
|||||||
06-18-15 | San Diego Padres +137 v. Oakland A's | Top | 3-1 | Win | 137 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
San Diego got blasted last night as the bullpen allowed the floodgates to open and send the Padres to their fourth straight defeat. They are now a game under .500 on the road which is certainly respectable and they look to avoid the four-game sweep before remaining on the road for six divisional games on deck. Oakland has finally found its offense during its four-game winning streak but it won't last and going back, the A's are 4-17 in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing road record. Ian Kennedy gets the ball for the Padres and after a rough May, he has settled down in June, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over three starts. He has surprisingly been better on the road than at home as he has allowed three runs or less in three of four starts on the highway. Kendall Graveman has also been pitching better but like Kennedy, he likes the road better. He has allowed three runs or less in five straight starts but four were on the road and he brings in a dreadful 10.54 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over three home outings. Additionally, Oakland is 4-1 in five nighttime starts but just 1-3 in four daytime starts. 10* (957) San Diego Padres |
|||||||
06-18-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Philadelphia Phillies +160 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 160 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
The Phillies nearly pulled off the comeback for us last night but they could not finish the job in the ninth inning. Despite nine straight losses, we will back them at home where they have eight more wins and 11 fewer losses than they do on the road. Baltimore will be out for the four-game home-and-home sweep and it is highly favored again tonight despite a pitching matchup not even close to in their favor. Bud Norris has been pitching a little better since coming back from the disabled list but how inconsistently bad is Norris performing this year? He has a 7.97 ERA in four home starts and an 8.66 ERA in four road starts while posting an 8.55 ERA in four starts at night compared to an 8.00 ERA in four daytime starts. Sean O'Sullivan is pitching similar to how the Phillies have performed on the road compared to at home. He has allowed three runs or less in four of five home starts, posting a 3.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP compared to putting up a 6.75 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in four road starts. The Orioles are 5-13 in their last 18 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
|||||||
06-17-15 | San Diego Padres +163 v. Oakland A's | Top | 2-16 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
The Padres were unable to win for interim manager Pat Murphy in his first game after Bud Black was fired on Monday but heading out on the road can change that. Reason being is that San Diego is a solid 16-16 away from home, one of only five teams in the National League that are .500 or better on the highway. The A's took the two games in San Diego and have won three straight overall but their 11 wins at home are tied with the Brewers for the fewest in baseball so laying a price like this is way too aggressive. We played on Odrisamer Despaigne in his last start and he gave it his best against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw but just came up short. He had a rough couple games to start May but everything around that has been solid. Six of his seven other starts have been quality and he has had some horrible luck along the way as in four of his last seven starts, the Padres have been shutout on offense, getting outscored 28-0. Jesse Chavez gets the ball for Oakland and he too has been solid but has been getting fewer wins no thanks to even worse run support. Oakland is just 2-8 in his 10 starts and going back, the A's are 0-6 in his last six starts against teams with a losing record. I don't see that changing here and we are getting a great price on top of it. 10* (925) San Diego Padres |
|||||||
06-17-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Philadelphia Phillies +156 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
We lost with the Phillies last night but will come back with them here as they head home where they have been a completely different team. Giving up 19 runs on the road is certainly not an ideal way to end a roadtrip that ended up 0-8 but Philadelphia is just one game under .500 at home and going back, the Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a home underdog. Baltimore has won 10 of its last 12 games but the majority of those came at home and like the Phillies, the highways is a real issue where the Orioles have dropped 15 of their last 20 games. Coming in as a road favorite is risky enough but coming in at this high of a price is even more risky. Ubaldo Jimenez is part of the reason but he has been far from dominating despite his 3.19 ERA as just five of 12 starts have been quality outings. The home/road splits have a lot to do with that as he has a 2.48 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home while posting a 4.23 ERA and 1.66 WHIP on the road. It comes as no surprise Baltimore is 1-5 in his six road starts. The Phillies counter with Kevin Correia who was a third of an inning away from a quality start in his first appearance on the hill this season. He put up a 3.58 ERA in Sacramento across 37.2 innings so he has been solid all season. 10* (902) Philadelphia Phillies |
|||||||
06-16-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
While many are calling for this series to be over already, we are not quite there yet. The Warriors won pivotal Game Five at home and teams that take a 3-2 series lead in the NBA Finals have gone on to win the NBA Championship 35 out of 43 times. But that includes series that have gone the distance as only 25 of those 43 had it ended in six games. The Cavaliers had chances in Game Five but blew a significant lead and were outscored by 11 points in the second half. They have now lost two straight games by double-digits and that is a wake up call heading home in this elimination game. It is unfortunate for Cleveland that injuries have played such a vital role and it has basically turned into a one man show. One player that needs to pick up the slack is J.R. Smith who has gone a dreadful 4-22 from long range the last two games and I believe that he gets the job done tonight. The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (712) Cleveland Cavaliers |
|||||||
06-16-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +194 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The Phillies have dropped all seven games of this current roadtrip so playing them tonight is certainly an ugly proposition but we will take a shot at an outstanding price. Coming into the season we knew it was going to be a struggle for Philadelphia and that has been the case as it is just one loss away from the defeats doubling the victories. But that just adds to the value as the Phillies are the biggest underdog on the board tonight and the Orioles really do not justify this big of a price. They have won seven of their last eight games but are still just one game over .500 overall. Chris Tillman gets the ball tonight and he has been all over the place. Only four of his 12 starts have been quality outings and overall he has a 5.68 ERA to go along with a 1.58 WHIP with those numbers being very similar to what he has done at home. The Orioles are 2-5 in his seven home starts and tonight is by far the most he has been favored by on the year. Jerome Williams has not been much better and the main reason he is the big dog here is the fact the Phillies are 0-6 in his six road starts and that plays right into our contrarian hands. 10* (961) Philadelphia Phillies |
|||||||
06-16-15 | Cincinnati Reds +140 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 140 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
We lost with the Reds last night as they were shutout 6-0 but we will come back with them here as they look to snap a three-game skid. Cincinnati has struggled on the road this season, going 11-22 but of course that just adds to the value to an already inflated line. The Tigers moved to four games over .500 with the victory last night and just a game over .500 at home. They got the benefit of a complete game shutout from Anibal Sanchez which makes this the best time to go against. Kyle Ryan is making his second start of the season and just his third overall and this one will be the first one at home. He was great in Chicago in his first start which came 11 days ago but the fact he has gone from a +132 underdog to a -160 favorite in some spots is too big of an adjustment in a one start span. Michael Lorenzen looks to bounce back from a bad outing which was his first poor one of the season. He allowed three runs or less in his first six starts including three straight quality performances and that is what we should expect tonight. Going back, the Tigers are just 3-7 in their last 10 home games against ht-handed starters. 10* (963) Cincinnati Reds |
|||||||
06-16-15 | Colorado Rockies +166 v. Houston Astros | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
The Rockies lost the opener of this series last night which was their fifth loss in six games going back to last Wednesday. They faced a tough task in trying to get to Dallas Keuchel but tonight they have a much better situation yet are getting a price that is very similar. Houston has won three of its last four games after a very poor stretch and it maintains a 2.5-game lead in the American League West. The Astros are one of the biggest surprises in baseball but being favored this big with an unproven starter is just too much. Vincent Velasquez is coming off a solid start in his Major League debut as he did not allow a run in five innings against the White Sox. He is a top prospect in the organization but this is a price that is given to more seasoned pitchers at this point. Chris Rusin is coming off a rough game against the Marlins but after starting the season with two quality outings, he is more than capable of bouncing back here. He posted a 3.93 ERA in 13 starts with the Cubs back in 2013 which was his last season as a starter and that backs up his ability to make more positive results going forward. 10* (953) Colorado Rockies |
|||||||
06-16-15 | Minnesota Twins +172 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
The Twins lost a tough one last night as they tried to rally from a 3-0 deficit but fell a run short which put them at 1-6 over their last seven games. Still, they are five games over .500 on the season and are catching a great number this afternoon. The Cardinals have won four straight games and possess the best home record in baseball at 25-7 so going against them may seem nonsensical but this is a great setup. Kyle Gibson is having another season where he has been really outstanding or just very average but the fact he is coming off a pair of average starts is to our advantage. Prior to his last outing, he posted a 1.66 ERA in three starts after posting a non-quality performance right before that which is very similar to last season where he put up a 2.58 ERA in 13 post non-quality starts. Look for another rebound today. Michael Wacha goes for the Cardinals and he has no doubt been solid but he hasn't been very sharp since the end of April, posting just five quality games in nine starts including only one of three at home. The Cardinals are the second biggest consensus play of the day and we will go against the public here. 10* (951) Minnesota Twins |
|||||||
06-15-15 | New York Yankees v. Miami Marlins +140 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 140 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
The Yankees snapped their three-game slide with a victory at Baltimore Sunday to move back to over .500 on the road. They are favored tonight however because of their starting pitcher but going back, they are just 1-5 in their last six games as road favorites. After a rough roadtrip, Miami won its first three games against Colorado but failed to complete the sweep yesterday. Going back, the Marlins have won five of their last six home games and the one thing that has been steady at home is the pitching from both the starters and relievers. One of those takes the hill tonight as Tom Koehler is not a household name but he has thrown especially well at home. He has a 1.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in five starts and one relief appearance with four of those five starts being quality outings. This is his first home start after three straight on the road. New York turns to Masahiro Tanaka who is getting backed heavily as a road favorite. He has been great in his two starts since returning from the disabled list and going back the Yankees have won his last five starts. That gives us the contrarian angle and the value that comes with it. This is the highest price he has been favored by on the road this season. 10* (914) Miami Marlins |
|||||||
06-15-15 | Cincinnati Reds +187 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
We won with the Tigers yesterday as they were getting value based on the starting pitching matchup that was overinflated because of name and now the roles are reversed tonight. The Reds lost three of four in Chicago against the Cubs in the final two games by one run. Cincinnati has struggled on the road this season, going 11-21 but of course that just adds to the value to an already inflated line. The pitcher in question tonight is Anibal Sanchez who has been anything but consistent this season. He is coming off one of his best starts where he tossed 7.2 shutout inning against the Cubs but quality outings have been few and far between of late. He has followed up his last three with non-quality starts, posting an 8.64 ERA in the process. He has struggled at home with a 5.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in nine starts and the Tigers are 0-5 in Sanchez' last five starts against teams with a losing record. Jon Moscot counters for the Reds and he has been decent through two starts including a quality outing last time out as he allowed just two runs in six innings against the Phillies. He was 7-1 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in nine AAA starts and look for him to continue getting more comfortable as the starts progress. 10* (903) Cincinnati Reds |
|||||||
06-14-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors OVER 195 | Top | 91-104 | Push | 0 | 35 h 18 m | Show |
The total has been killing us in this series but now is not the time to lay off as we will come back with the over in Game Five. Golden St. was able to regain home court advantage with a commanding win in Cleveland in Game Four. Now that the Warriors are back home, they can carry the momentum from that game as the offense got back on track. They managed 103 points on 46.8 percent shooting including 40 percent from long range, huge improvements from the previous two games. Cleveland was the problem in Game Four as it shot just 33 percent including a horrid 14.8 percent from long range, missing 23 of 27 attempts. Scoring only 12 points in the fourth quarter was the difference in that one staying under and even though the Cavaliers are now on the road, we will see a better performance offensively. The rest factor should come into play as well as the extra day will benefit both sides, especially Cleveland as fatigue has been a big issue. Going back, the Cavaliers are 38-16 to the over in their last 54 games playing with two days rest and that includes a 60 percent clip this season. 10* Over (709) Cleveland Cavaliers/(710) Golden St. Warriors |
|||||||
06-14-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 91-104 | Loss | -103 | 35 h 18 m | Show |
After getting destroyed in Game Four at home, many are writing the Cavaliers off in this series and the home court advantage they gained has been lost. The series is even at two games apiece which makes Game Five absolutely pivotal for both sides and while the argument will be it is more important for the Warriors because the next game is in Cleveland, I think it is more important for the victors as a loss forced the Cavaliers to win the final two games including another on this floor. The Warriors have lost only four times at home all season but two of those have been in the postseason including one against Cleveland already. The line is taking the dominant home floor into consideration as Golden St. is favored by the most it has been in this series so far. While an outright win may be farfetched to some, consider the fact that the Cavaliers are coming off a horrible game so a bounce back is imminent and the added time off is a big factor. Cleveland is a perfect 15-0 this season when playing with two days rest and that included the win here last Sunday. Don't count Cleveland out just yet. 10* (709) Cleveland Cavaliers |
|||||||
06-14-15 | Seattle Mariners +128 v. Houston Astros | Top | 0-13 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Houston torched Felix Hernandez on Friday but gave it right back yesterday with an 8-1 loss, its eighth defeat in its last nine games. The Astros lead is down to a game and a half in the American League West and we will likely see that evaporate as the overachieving start is now catching up. Seattle continues to struggle but bounced back last night after getting shutout in consecutive games. The Mariners have won all three games on this roadtrip as underdogs and I expect that to continue Sunday. Lance McCullers has been outstanding since being added to the rotation after a callup from AA. Three of his five starts have been quality outings and he has yet to allow more than three runs but he is one of the biggest victims of the below average Astros offense. Houston has scored three runs or less in all of his games while averaging a mere 2.2 rpg,. Roenis Elias counters for Seattle and he too has been very solid. In nine stats, he has allowed more than three runs only once with seven of his last eight starts being quality outings. Run support has been a problem with him also but going back, the Mariners are 6-2 in his last eight starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. 10* (973) Seattle Mariners |
|||||||
06-14-15 | Colorado Rockies +128 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 4-1 | Win | 128 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
The Rockies let us down yesterday to make it four straight losses but we will back them today as they look to get out of town by avoiding the sweep. The offense has been shut down as they have managed just two runs the first three games of this series and this is a much better offense than what we are seeing short term. Miami is playing well after three straight losses in Toronto but it is still under .500 at home and despite the solid start to this series, the Marlins are 3-8 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record. Jorge De La Rosa gets the ball for the Rockies and while his overall numbers are not good, he has been hurt by just a couple starts. He has tossed two straight quality outings and going back, the Rockies are 45-19 in his last 64 starts against teams with a losing record. Dan Haren is having an impressive season and has yet to lose at home but this is the time to go against. Haren has to have nightmares about Colorado as he has not tossed a quality outing against the Rockies since 2010 and has a dreadful 9.94 ERA in his last seven starts since then. 10* (953) Colorado Rockies |
|||||||
06-14-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Detroit Tigers +125 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 125 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
This is the perfect example of a false favorite where we are getting the better team as the underdog while the starting pitching overinflation really is not justified. Cleveland won yesterday which spoiled a solid return from Justin Verlander but Detroit has still owned this series with wins in eight of the last 10 meetings. Cleveland may be better on the road but has dropped four straight following a win. Corey Kluber is the reigning Cy Young winner so he can throw no doubt but he isn't having a great year after that with his 3.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The latter is definitely solid but compared to his WHIP of 1.09 all of last season shows he has gone the wrong way. The real issue is that the Indians are not scoring runs for him as they are averaging 2.46 rpg while giving him just 2.0 rpg on the road so it comes as no surprise they are just 1-6 in his seven road starts. Alfredo Simon has been an awesome addition to the Tigers rotation as he is 6-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 12 starts. Hid numbers at Comerica Park have been even better with a 1.80 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in five starts with Detroit going 4-1 in those games. 10* (966) Detroit Tigers |
|||||||
06-13-15 | Atlanta Braves +142 v. New York Mets | Top | 5-3 | Win | 142 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
The Mets continued their home dominance this season over the Braves as they won their fourth straight game over Atlanta in a 5-3 victory last night. It was the second straight win for New York while the Braves have now dropped two in a row. Going back, the Braves have lost three straight road games and the home/road differentials are what is providing the value here. Jacob deGrom gets the call for New York and he is having an outstanding season with a 2.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. He has posted five straight quality outings with the Mets winning all of those but the Braves are 7-1 in their last eight games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 and they bring their own dominant pitcher to the hill. Shelby Miller has been a great addition to the rotation as his numbers are even better as he has a 1.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 12 starts. Going back, the Mets are 15-39 in their last 54 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. The only significant difference between Miller and deGrom is the record over the last three starts where the Braves are 0-3 and the Mets are 3-0. Atlanta is loaded with value here. 10* (903) Atlanta Braves |
|||||||
06-13-15 | Colorado Rockies +147 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
There is not a whole lot of difference between Colorado and Miami overall and the line is showing a much greater differential that does not exist. The starting pitching matchup is not that differential as this a is a top of the line starter vs. a bottom of the line starter type of line but that is hardly the case. The Rockies have dropped the first two games of this series as they have gotten outscored 11-1 so this is a good spot for them to break out. Miami has won four straight games at home dating back to their last homestand but they are still two games under .500 at home on the season. Mat Latos has not won here, has a 10.18 ERA over five starts and is making his first appearance since May 21st. He did have a solid stretch of games prior to his most recent two but there is no way he should be laying this type of number. Colorado counters with David Hale who is making his first road start of the season but when playing in Colorado, that is not always a bad thing. He has been solid so far by keeping the Giants, Dodgers and Cardinals in check and in 11 career starts, he has a 2.69 ERA splitting time between here and Atlanta. 10* (907) Colorado Rockies |
|||||||
06-12-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks +165 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 1-0 | Win | 165 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
The Giants return home following a 4-2 roadtrip but they are not in an ideal spot here as they play tonight coming back from the east coast after a night game on Thursday. Home has not exactly been the best advantage of late as the Giants have dropped five in a row here. Arizona had a tough stretch in Los Angeles as it got swept by the Dodgers to make it four straight losses overall. The Diamondbacks had won four of five prior to that and they are catching a bigger than expected number even though they are facing the Giants ace. The reason it is bigger than expected is because Arizona sends Chase Anderson to the hill and he has been extremely solid despite his lack of wins. In 11 starts, he has only one victory despite allowing two runs or less in eight of his last 10 outings as he has been hurt by poor run support and a bad bullpen at times. His numbers are slightly better on the road than at home and under the lights, he has a 2.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. This is his first ever start against the Giants, a big edge. Madison Bumgarner has been pretty average for a Cy Young candidate as only eight of 12 starts have been quality and he has been getting killed by the home run lately. He has a 5.40 ERA in two home starts against Arizona the last two years. 10* (963) Arizona Diamondbacks |
|||||||
06-12-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Diego Padres +217 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
The Dodgers are coming off a series sweep of the Diamondbacks and after day off Thursday, they hit the highway for a short three-game roadtrip. Los Angeles improved to 25-10 at home which is the best home record in baseball but on the road, it is a different story where it sits just 10-15 with those 10 wins tied for second lowest in the Majors. San Diego is back home following a 4-3 roadtrip and overall it has won six of its last nine games. This isn't the ideal pitching matchup the Padres would like for this opener but it actually isn't overly bad considering the venue. Clayton Kershaw is back to Cy Young form following a pretty average start to the season where he was unusually inconsistent. While he is back in top form, hitting the road is a concern yet the linesmakers are inflating this price significantly knowing the public will be all over him. He has dominated the Padres but the last four outings have been at home. San Diego turns to Odrisamer Despaigne who had a rough couple games to start May but everything around that has been solid. Five of his six other starts have been quality and while he allowed four runs last time out, all were via the long ball. This is his first ever home start against the Dodgers. 10* (962) San Diego Padres |
|||||||
06-12-15 | Atlanta Dream v. Washington Mystics OVER 147.5 | Top | 64-61 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
We are playing another total in the WNBA today for a lot of the same reasons that we played the Indiana/New York Over on Tuesday and the Seattle/Minnesota Over last night. Washington has won its first two games of the season with both games going under the total. The last game stayed below the total by close to 20 points and while the number tonight is actually slightly higher than the first two, we are getting value because of the other side. Atlanta has also gone under the total in its last two games with neither game surpassing the over/under that is posted for tonight. The difference though is tonight's number is lower than those last two closing totals which is where the value comes into play. The Mystics have been getting it done on defense as Washington leads the WNBA in shooting defense at 35 percent and has limited each of its first two opponents to one field goal during the final six minutes of regulation. Atlanta is not shooting great but it possesses two-time WNBA scoring champion Angel McCoughtry so the offensive threat is there. Atlanta played last night and going back, the over is 10-4 in the Dream's last 14 games playing on no rest. 10* Over (653) Atlanta Dream/(654) Washington Mystics |
|||||||
06-11-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 193 | Top | 103-82 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
The zig didn't zag in Game Three for the total as even a 60-point fourth quarter could not keep the game from staying under the total. We will go against the grain again and look for the bounce theory to hold true for Game Four to send this game over the total. The first two games of this series went into overtime and despite that, Game Two stayed well below the total. In Game One, the under would have come in if not for the extra time as it snuck over by a few points. Because of those regulation results, we have seen the over/under go from 203.5 to 199 to 194 to 193 so we are getting over a 10-point swing in a matter of just four games. That is some incredible value and while it was roughly the same last game and did not come through, I expect a different story on Thursday. For one, this Golden St. offense has now been held in check in two straight games and Tuesday represented only the second time all season that the Warriors are under 60 points after three quarters and the first time it happened it was in Game Two. Give Cleveland credit for great defense and Matt Dellavedova has been the key. The problem is he is not 100 perfect and head coach David Blatt said he will limit his minutes because of the cramps and fatigue. Now it's time to see some points. 10* Over (707) Golden St. Warriors/(708) Cleveland Cavaliers |
|||||||
06-11-15 | Cincinnati Reds +131 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The Cubs are back home following a 5-4 roadtrip that ended last night with a 12-3 blowout win at Detroit. The win pushed them to a game over .500 on the road and while they have a better record at home, 15-11 isn't overly impressive. The Reds have not been good on the road as they are 10-18 but they are worth the play here based on the recent run which has now reached four straight wins and I like them to carry that momentum into tonight. Cincinnati turns to Michael Lorenzen who has been very solid thus far. He has allowed three runs or less in each of his six starts with the last three resulting in quality outings. He has been fortunate that the runs have been held in check because he has walked more batters than you would like to see but the good part is that his control issues have really been in just a couple games. This is his first ever start against Chicago which is a solid edge. The Cubs counter with Tsuyoshi Wada who is making his fifth start of the season. He has yet to toss a quality outing and is coming off his worst effort where he allowed five runs on nine hits in just 3.2 innings. Going back to last season, the Cubs have won just one of his last four home starts and they are 1-6 in his last seven starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (907) Cincinnati Reds |
|||||||
06-11-15 | Seattle Storm v. Minnesota Lynx OVER 149 | Top | 70-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
We are playing another total in the WNBA today for a lot of the same reasons that we played the Indiana/New York Over on Tuesday. Seattle is coming off a loss at Tulsa on Tuesday where it managed to score just 45 points on a horrid 23.8 percent shooting. The total for that game closed at 161.5 and stayed under that number by close to 50 points so we are seeing an adjustment tonight because of that. The Storm had just 15 first half points and they committed 20 turnover but bouncing back is more than possible as they shot 51.6 percent in their first game while scoring 86 points against Los Angeles. Minnesota is off to a 2-0 start as the defense has been solid while the offense has been inconsistent. Both of those games stayed under the total but not by a whole lot as the first game missed by five points and the second game missed by 6.5 points. This is now the lowest total the Lynx have had through the early season and the value is there. Additionally, seven of the last eight meetings have stayed under the total so the contrarian series angle is also coming into play. 10* Over (607) Seattle Storm/(608) Minnesota Lynx |
|||||||
06-10-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks +177 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
The Dodgers have taken the first two games of this series and have won five straight against Arizona going back to the last series meeting and going back even further, they have won the last eight home meetings against the Diamondbacks. That has put Los Angeles in the category of a big public favorite and it is now favored by the most it has been against Arizona not only in this series but all the way back to last season. The Diamondbacks are arguably one of the best losing teams in baseball as their -1 run differential is second best in the bigs for teams with a losing record. Comparing starting pitching rotations can often lead to hidden value and that is the case here in this matchup. When looking at the Dodgers rotation, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke are a step above the rest and no offense to Brett Anderson but he is a distant third in the order. He has pitched great to the tune of a 3.29 ERA on the season but Los Angeles is just 5-6 in his games as he has gotten little run support. Jeremy Hellickson meanwhile is the number two guy in the Diamondbacks rotation and while he got off to a slow start, he has tossed four straight quality starts, all resulting in wins. He has much better numbers away from hitter-friendly Chase Field and while he has been a dog in all five previous road outings, tonight marks the biggest of the bunch by far. 10* (961) Arizona Diamondbacks |
|||||||
06-10-15 | Texas Rangers +145 v. Oakland A's | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Typically I play against teams on significant winning streaks and on teams that are going through significant losing streaks because the majority of the times there is value in such situations. That is far from the case here though. We won with Texas last night and while we aren't getting the same high moneyline, it is still pretty significant as the linesmakers are way off again. The Rangers are now 7-2 over their last nine games and 20-12 on the road which is the best record in the Majors. The victory last night pushed them to 10-2 in their last 12 games as a road underdog. The A's are an American League worst 23-37 and at home where they used to be one of the best, they are just 9-18. A significant pitching edge can now be the only reason the A's are big favorites again based on the above referenced results but that is far from the case. Jesse Hahn is a solid pitcher no doubt but the differences between he and Yovani Gallardo are minute as the numbers are close to identical. The ERA's are close and while Hahn does have a sharper WHIP, it is not a huge variance. The big difference are wins where the A's are 1-5 at home under Hahn and 1-6 under the lights. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 4-0 in Gallardo's last four starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (973) Texas Rangers |
|||||||
06-09-15 | Texas Rangers +170 v. Oakland A's | Top | 2-1 | Win | 170 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
The Rangers took two of the three games against the Royals to open this roadtrip and going back, they are 6-2 over their last eight games. They are now 19-12 on the road which is the best record in the Majors and more recently, they are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a road underdog. Oakland continues its inconsistent season as after a series sweep against the Tigers in Detroit, it got swept at Boston over the weekend. The A's are now an American League worst 23-36 and even though the last three losses were on the road, the issues are mainly at home where they are 9-17. Sonny Gray looks to break the skid and keep his solid pitching run going. He has pitched well but has also been fortunate with a lot of run support behind him over his last three games and a majority overall. While he has dominated Texas throughout his career, the Rangers have won eight of their last 10 against righty starters. Nick Martinez looks to bounce back from his worst start of the season and I expect him to. He had allowed three runs or less in his first 10 starts before a poor outing last time out and going back, the Rangers are 6-0 in Martinez' last six starts as a road underdog. 10* (923) Texas Rangers |
|||||||
06-09-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 194 | Top | 91-96 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
The NBA Finals shifts back to Cleveland where the Cavaliers have obtained home court advantage as they were able to split in Golden St. they come in as a short home underdog but we will be looking at the total tonight where we are getting a very strong number to work with. The first two games of this series have gone into overtime and despite that, the last games stayed well below the total. In Game One, the under would have come in if not for the extra time as it snuck over by a few points. Because of those regulation results, we have seen the over/under go from 203.5 to 199 to 194 so we are getting close to a 10-point swing in a matter of just three games. Both teams have gone under the total in the majority of their games this season but those have come with some high totals as they are a combined 11-7 to the over when the over/under is less than 195. While defense has been the story so far, I expect the shooting to improve tonight and namely, that comes from Stephen Curry where he was just 5-23 from the floor including just 2-15 from long range. The Warriors have scored fewer than 100 points 19 other times this season and they have eclipsed the century mark all but three times in the next game. Meanwhile, the over is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Over (705) Golden St. Warriors/(706) Cleveland Cavaliers |
|||||||
06-09-15 | Miami Marlins +134 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Miami lost last night as Brad Hand could not even get out of the first inning and the game was over with a 6-0 lead for Toronto after one. The Marlins will look to cool off a Blue Jays offense that ha scored six runs or more in six straight games for the first time in 15 years. Toronto has won six straight games yet has not made any ground in the American League East because the Yankees are on a similar streak but at least they aren't losing ground. Mark Buehrle takes the hill for Toronto following his best outing of the season where he tossed a six-hit shutout against the Nationals. It was his seventh win of the season but his numbers remain average with a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 11 starts. The Marlins have hit lefties well this season and they are 7-3 in their last 10 games against left-handed starters. Miami turns to Dan Haren who has better overall numbers than Buehrle but is still the significant underdog. His ERA on the road jumps to 4.60 but his WHIP in 1.158 on the highway and I always feel that is a stronger indicator. The Marlins are 4-1 in Haren's last five starts as an underdog while the Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last six games as a favorite of -110 to -150. 10* (925) Miami Marlins |
|||||||
06-09-15 | Indiana Fever v. New York Liberty OVER 145 | Top | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
After both New York and Indiana opened the season with high scoring games that went over the total, they both struggled offensively on Saturday and hope to turn that around tonight. The Fever are averaging 70.5 ppg on 40.9 percent shooting after losses to Chicago and Minnesota so that is clearly an issue. The absence of Tamika Catchings has been a big reason for that as she has yet to play due to a knee injury suffered prior to training camp. She is listed as questionable tonight and while we likely won't see her, this play is based on the that so if she does return, it is a bonus. New York went just 22-60 in its last game against Washington after shooting close to 50 percent in its opening win against Atlanta. To the Liberty's credit, the defense has been rock solid by allowing just 36.2 percent shooting in the two games and while that has been great, I don't think it is sustainable and we are getting a good number because of it. We do not have a lot of stats to pour through for this game as the season is young but tonight marks the lowest total that either teams has seen and I think it will prove to be too low for tonight. 10* Over (651) Indiana Fever/(652) New York Liberty |
|||||||
06-08-15 | Milwaukee Brewers +152 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 2-0 | Win | 152 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Milwaukee is coming off a series win at Minnesota despite losing yesterday 2-0. The Brewers took two of the three games to even out the current roadtrip and they head to Pittsburgh looking to break a four-game skid at PNC Park. The Pirates are coming off a successful 7-3 roadtrip and look to keep momentum going at home where they have won six in a row. The price is big because of that and we are catching value in the pitching matchup. The Brewers send Jimmy Nelson to the hill and he has been the victim of bad pitching at times and bad luck in others. His ERA sits at 4.41 through 11 starts but his WHIP is a solid 1.22 which is a better indicator of how he has been throwing. In two starts against Pittsburgh this season, Nelson has a 1.50 ERA and 0.75 WHIP covering 12 innings. A.J. Burnett counters for Pittsburgh and while ERA is a lot better than that of Nelson, WHIP checks in at an identical 1.22. His ERA gets better at home but his WHIP is higher and the Pirates are just 2-2 in his four home starts. Pittsburgh has won his last six games but has lost five un a row against the Brewers and the Pirates are 2-6 in Burnett's last eight home starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (951) Milwaukee Brewers |
|||||||
06-08-15 | Miami Marlins +155 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
The Blue Jays have won five straight games including a home sweep of the American League West leading Astros over the weekend. They are inching closer to .500 thanks to a 17-12 record at home and they are just one of two teams in all of baseball that have a losing record yet have a positive run differential. Miami took two of three in Colorado and have quietly won its last three series, going 6-3 in the process. The Marlins are catching a solid number against an overpriced pitcher. Marco Estrada is coming off his first win since entering the Blue Jays rotation with Toronto winning its first game with him as a starter in six tries. He has been decent but far from dominating and at this price, the value is clearly on the other side as this is his biggest favorite price since last May when he was with the Brewers. Miami sends Brad Hand to the mound who is making his third start after two successful outings. He was pressed into starting duty recently after the Marlins lost both Henderson Alvarez and Mat Latos to injury and so far so good as he has allowed just two runs over 11 innings. Going back to last season, he has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts and is worth the shot tonight. 10* (965) Miami Marlins |
|||||||
06-06-15 | New York Mets +115 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The Mets dropped the opener of this series last night to fall to 2-3 on the current roadtrip but I expect them to get it back tonight. They are just 9-18 on the road this season but with that comes value as they have a solid edge in the pitching matchup. Arizona meanwhile improved to 3-2 on its current homestand but remains chase a game under .500 at home and two games under .500 overall. The Diamondbacks send Chase Anderson to the hill and while he has been very solid, the wins aren't coming. Despite a 3.26 ERA, he has just one win on the season as his run support has been nonexistent, getting only 3.2 rpg and that does not get much better at home where it is 3.25. He is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing six runs on 10 hits over five innings and going back, the Diamondbacks are 1-8 in his last nine starts including 0-5 as a favorite. The Mets counter with Bartolo Colon who got off top a great start before a couple bad outings but has recovered with a pair of quality outings in his last two games. His K:BB ratio is a sick 54:5 which has kept his WHIP down including a mere 1.05 on the road where the Mets have won eight of his last 10 starts going back to last season. 10* (961) New York Mets |
|||||||
06-05-15 | SA Silver Stars +6.5 v. Phoenix Mercury | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
Phoenix is out to defend its 2014 WNBA Championship and it all starts tonight at home where distractions will be everywhere. The Mercury will be lowering the championship banner tonight and players will be getting their rings which certainly makes playing basketball not in full focus. Plus this will be a different looking Phoenix team than the one that swept Chicago last season in the WNBA Finals. Tonight, they will dress only four players that wore Mercury uniforms in 2014. Diana Taurasi and Penny prepare to sit out the year to rest, Shay Murphy injured her knee overseas which ended her WNBA season before it began and of course, there is the suspension of Brittney Griner for seven games. This is a good opportunity for San Antonio to build on last season's playoff appearance despite getting swept by Minnesota. While this line is taking all of the Phoenix issues into play, I still think it is way too high and the Stars have a legitimate shot of winning it outright. 10* (609) San Antonio Stars |
|||||||
06-05-15 | New York Mets +119 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
The Mets picked up a rare road win last night and we say rare because it was just their ninth of the season. I look for them to carry that over into tonight as Arizona has been very average this season and now sits two games under .500 at home. Additionally, the Diamondbacks are 15-36 in their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. Jon Niese is struggling in a big way as he has posted a 9.00 ERA over his last four starts, allowing 20 runs in 20 innings. Not to make excuses but those four games, all Mets losses, were against some quality teams and going back, they are 11-4 in Niese's last 15 starts against teams with a losing record. Jeremy Hellickson was originally scheduled to take the ball Thursday, but was pushed back to Friday to start in place of Archie Bradley, who went on the disabled list because of right shoulder tendinitis. He has been just the opposite as he has tossed three straight quality starts after a horrible start to the season but this is where it could very well end. All said, this is a great contrarian situation that we can take advantage of a solid line. 10* (911) New York Mets |
|||||||
06-05-15 | Detroit Tigers +113 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
After getting swept in their four-game series in Los Angeles against the Angels, the Tigers returned home to face the struggling A's and they still could not get things right as Oakland took all three games. Hitting the road again may be a good thing and I like the chances of this seven-game skid coming to an end. The White Sox are coming off a 5-6 roadtrip and are now four games under .500 for the season. They have been better at home but are 1-5 in their last six home games. Jose Quintana takes the mound for Chicago and he is having a decent yet unspectacular season. He has six quality outings in his 10 starts but has just two wins to show for it including none at home where he is 0-3. Run support is a huge issue as he is getting just 2.0 rpg including a mere 1.5 rpg in four home starts. The White Sox are 0-6 in Quintana's last six starts following a quality outing in his last start. Kyle Ryan goes for Detroit and this is his first start of the season and second appearance overall. He should be very comfortable here though as his only other Major League start took place here where he tossed six shutout innings last August. 10* (923) Detroit Tigers |
|||||||
06-05-15 | Baltimore Orioles +121 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 5-2 | Win | 121 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
We are going contrarian again here with Baltimore. We won with the Orioles yesterday as they snapped a five-game losing skid to defeat Houston and they now have some momentum heading into this closing series of the roadtrip. The Indians defeated Kansas City in a rain-shortened game last night to make it four wins in its last five games but they are still under .500 overall including a very average 10-14 at home. The Indians are 6-15 in their last 21 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Chris Tillman goes for Baltimore and he is having a very up and down season where he has been awesome at times and horrid in others. He is coming off a poor start but I see a bounceback here as the Orioles look to end their 0-5 record in his five nighttime starts. Going back, the Orioles are 22-7 in Tillman's last 29 starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Cleveland counters with Shaun Marcum who has made three stats with the Indians, two of which have been good and one which was a disaster and that took place at home, raising his career ERA here to 4.28. 10* (915) Baltimore Orioles |
|||||||
06-04-15 | Chicago Cubs +110 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 2-1 | Win | 110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Chicago has opened this current roadtrip with a 1-2 record after losing the last two games in Miami to start the week. Despite being three games over .500, the Cubs are seven games out in the National League Central as the Cardinals are starting to run away with the division. After winning Tuesday afternoon behind Jordan Zimmerman, the Nationals are also on a two-game skid as they lost the final two games against Toronto. They are still a half-game up on the Mets in the National League East but they are the only division leader in baseball that does not hold a double-digit positive run differential. Gio Gonzalez takes the mound for Washington and he is once again having a great season at home where he is 2-0 with a 3.33 ERA in four starts with the Nationals going a perfect 4-0 in those games. It is his recent form however that makes him the fade tonight as he has posted a 6.65 ERA over his last four starts with the lone decent outing coming against the lowly Phillies. The contrarian play here is the fact he has put up 29 straight shutout innings against the Cubs over four starts but none have come against the improved Cubs of this season. Jake Arrieta allowed four runs against the Royals last time out but three of four road starts have been quality and in two career starts at Nationals Park, he has a 1.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. 10* (951) Chicago Cubs |
|||||||
06-04-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 156 h 40 m | Show |
The Cavaliers and Warriors had no problems reaching the NBA Finals and the matchup that everyone was hoping for. We waited on this line after it came out, anticipating a move toward Cleveland and that is exactly what happened so now is the time to back Golden St. as it would not be at all surprising to see this number go back up by game time next Thursday. The time off was good for both sides to rest and take care of some nagging injuries and when we finally get to playing, the Warriors have a decisive edge on their home floor. They have lost only three times at home all season and there was a very common trait in all three games which was Stephen Curry struggling. He scored just 16, 19 and 21 points in those three defeats while going a combined 4-27 (14.8 percent) from long range and those clearly on not normal number. Neither was 18-point performance in Cleveland in the last meeting where he was just 3-9 from downtown. We talk about statement games for teams but this is a statement game for Curry and expect the best to come out. Cleveland rolled through the Eastern Conference playoffs but the Western Conference is a different beat and the Cavaliers were a pedestrian 18-12 against the west during the regular season. The Warriors get off to the start they need in Game One. 10* (702) Golden St. Warriors |
|||||||
06-04-15 | Baltimore Orioles +143 v. Houston Astros | Top | 3-2 | Win | 143 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
The Orioles have matched a season high five-game losing skid and they will be out to avoid a sixth straight loss and a series sweep this afternoon. Baltimore is now sitting in last place in the American League East, five games behind the Yankees. The highway has been the issue where Baltimore is 8-17 which is the worst road record in the American League and we are going contrarian today. The Astros lost six of ten games prior to this winning streak as they continue to be the biggest surprise in baseball and while they send their ace to the hill today, we take advantage of the solid underdog line. Dallas Keuchel is second in the bigs with a 1.76 ERA and is in a three-way tie for the best WHIP at 0.91 but we are fading him here after tossing a four-hit shutout against the White Sox last time out. The Orioles got to him for four runs two starts back and hitting lefties has been their strength all season. They counter with Wei-Yin Chen who is having a great season but has been on the wrong side of the luck aspect. He has allowed more than three runs only once yet has just one win on the season which came on the road where he has a 2.30 ERA in three starts. The Astros are 4-12 in Keuchel's last 16 starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (961) Baltimore Orioles |
|||||||
06-03-15 | New York Mets +134 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The Mets got a great performance from Jacob deGrom on Monday as he allowed just two hits over eight innings in a 7-0 victory. More of the same was expected last night from Noah Syndergaard but he struggled by giving up 10 hits and seven runs in four innings despite striking out 10. the road has not been kind this season for New York as it is now 8-16 but tonight it is catching a very generous line that sets up well for contrarian players. The Padres are still under .500 both overall and at home and are now 3-3 on this homestand with tonight marking the biggest home favorite price that have seen since early May when facing the Rockies. The reason being is James Shields is on the hill and his undefeated record is making the line overinflated. Granted, he has been pitching very well so he is undefeated for a reason but he has been fortunate to get a ton of run support and I do not expect that tonight. The Mets turn to Dillon Gee who has been out since early May with a strained groin but got through a couple rehab starts with no issues. He has a 3.86 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over five starts this season and he also falls into the contrarian scenario as he is winless despite the solid pitching. 10* (913) New York Mets |
|||||||
06-03-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals +130 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 130 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Cleveland won the opener of this series last night 2-1 which was its third straight win as it inches closer to .500 overall. The road has been a big reason why as the Indians are 15-12 on the highway thanks to a 4-1 start on this roadtrip but the winning has been rare against the solid teams as they are just 9-20 in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. The Royals have lost two straight and six of their last seven games but they remain just a half-game behind the Twins in the American League Central. They are still a very solid 17-8 at home and the offense needs to catch fire after scoring seven total runs in those six losses during this recent skid. Facing Corey Kluber doesn't seem to be the cure but the fact they are getting him at home is a big advantage. Kluber has an average 3.98 ERA at home and he is getting little to no run support with Cleveland averaging just 2.0 rpg in six road starts while going 1-5 in the process. He has allowed nine runs in 12 innings in two starts against Kansas City this season. Jason Vargas has allowed two runs in each of his last three starts and while he has a 5.40 home ERA, his WHIP is 1.11 which is much more comparable to that of Kluber. 10* (926) Kansas City Royals |
|||||||
06-03-15 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
We are betting a rare total this afternoon as the situation is a rare one that we will be taking advantage of. This is the third and final game of this three-game set following the first two games that both finished with 1-0 finals so we should see the bats come alive today in this matinee. The Brewers bats have been a disappointment all season but to their credit, they are getting healthier on offense and I expect a touch more of offense today. The Cardinals are hitting .266 on the season which is fifth best in baseball and third best in the National League which includes second best at home at .277. Being held to one run over the last two games is certainly a rarity and they take on Jimmy Nelson today who has been up and down this season. He has allowed four runs in three of his last five starts and he had a rough time facing the Cardinals last season as in two starts, he posted a 9.64 ERA. John Lackey has been dominant for St. Louis but he also falls into part of the contrarian situation as he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts, all of which stayed under the total. He blanked Milwaukee for seven innings in his first start against them this season but the second time is always an edge for the offense. 10* Over (901) Milwaukee Brewers/(902) St. Louis Cardinals |
|||||||
06-02-15 | Baltimore Orioles +133 v. Houston Astros | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
The linesmakers finally seem to be catching up to the Astros as they are now favored for the fourth time in five games with all being at least -140 and prior to this, they were favored by -140 or more only five times in 47 games. The Orioles lost the opener last night for their third straight loss but the spot and number are on their side tonight. Houston counters with Colin McHugh who started the season great but has been leaking oil. He had a 3.23 ERA through six starts with Houston going 6-0 and even better, it was 11-0 in his last 11 start going back to last season. But he has posted a 5.84 ERA in his last four starts with the run support dwindling from 7.4 rpg in the first five games to 2.8 rpg over the last five games and the Astros have dropped three of the last four. Mike Wright will be making his fourth start for the Orioles and so far so good for the 25-year old righty. He has a 1.40 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in three starts with two being quality and the third missing by just one inning. This comes after a record of 3-0 and ERA of 2.64 and WHIP of 1.11 at AAA Norfolk so it has been great all around. 10* (971) Baltimore Orioles |
|||||||
06-02-15 | Minnesota Twins +162 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
*This is the same play from last night which was rained out* Being a contrarian handicapper when it is appropriate makes picking spots difficult at times but in this case, we are at the opposite side it. This is a classic example of an overinflated line based on team name and reputation and not reality. The Twins head into June leading the American League Central by a half-game thanks to a 20-7 record in May yet they are clearly getting no respect. The Red Sox meanwhile are on a horrible slide, coming off a 1-6 roadtrip and going back, they are 3-9 over their last 12 games. The offense has been non-existent as Boston averaged 2.8 rpg in May and Clay Buchholz was a victim of that. Despite three straight quality starts, he did not win as the Red Sox lost all three games no thanks to scoring just one run in each game. Going back, they have scored only one run in six of his last eight starts including three of four at home where they are 0-4 and Buchholz possesses a 5.24 ERA. Mike Pelfrey meanwhile has a 2.77 ERA overall with Minnesota going 7-2 in his nine starts yet he is still a huge underdog for now the ninth time in 10 starts. Minnesota is 6-0 in his six starts under the lights. 10* (967) Minnesota Twins |
|||||||
06-02-15 | Cincinnati Reds v. Philadelphia Phillies +153 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 153 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
The Phillies received a much needed day off yesterday following being the victims of a home sweep to the Rockies which came after getting swept against the Mets in New York. Going back, they are 1-9 over their last 10 games with the offense scoring three runs or less in eight of those losses. Look for better production tonight and looking back, the Phillies are 5-0 in their last five games as a home underdog. Cincinnati is coming off a home sweep against Washington so the day off came at a bad time. It has not been a good season for the Reds which are five games under .500 no thanks to a 9-16 road record and going back to last season., the Reds are 17-45 in their last 62 road games. They are favored because of Johnny Cueto but he has been by bothered by a bad pitching elbow and the road has not been his friend. This is the case this year and nearly every year with a 4.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season compared to a 1.55 ERA and 0.72 WHIP at home. The Phillies turn to Sean O'Sullivan who has a similar split with a 7.02 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three road starts compared to a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in three home starts. The Reds are 2-9 in their last 11 games against right-handed starters. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
|||||||
06-01-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Francisco Giants +130 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
The Giants had won five straight games after a victory over the Braves Friday but the pitching fell apart over the weekend as they allowed 15 runs the last two games, both resulting in losses. Tonight, they are catching a solid number at home where they are five games over .500 and playing a Pirates team that is four games under .500 on the road. Pittsburgh opened its roadtrip with a series split against the Padres, losing two of the last three games following a seven-game winning streak. The Pirates are favored by their second biggest amount on the road with that other time coming against the 19-33 Phillies but now they face a quality team and a quality pitcher. Ryan Vogelsong is in the middle of this rotation but has been pitching like a number one of late as he has a 1.14 ERA over his last five starts and the Giants won all five thanks to his throwing and solid run support. Gerrit Cole is the reason the line is what it is and while he is entering elite status, the value is clearly on the other side. Pittsburgh is 3-2 in his five road starts and going back, the Giants are 9-0 in their last nine games as a home underdog. 10* (912) San Francisco Giants |
|||||||
06-01-15 | Tampa Bay Rays +151 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
We won with the Angels last night as they swept the Tigers in four games for their first series sweep of more than two games in 2015. They trailed for a total of just three innings in the series which showed how much they dominated but if there is ever a case of a letdown in baseball, this is it. Los Angeles now trailed Houston by just four games in the American League West but being favored by this much against a team that is only one game worse is an overinflation. Tampa Bay salvaged the final two games in Baltimore which snapped a six-game losing streak and on the season, its 12-9 road record is pretty solid. Los Angeles sends Garrett Richards to the mound and he is having another solid season after coming back from a bad leg injury toward the end of last year. He has a 3.12 ERA in eight starts with the Angels going 5-3 in those games which is nothing special as run support has been inconsistent. The Rays counter with Alex Colome who has had only one bad start on the season. He has not gone deep into games but that is no issue as the Rays bullpen is fresh and its .218 BAA is sixth best in baseball. 10* (917) Tampa Bay Rays |
|||||||
05-31-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Los Angeles Angels +103 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 103 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
We are going contrarian in this one but not in the way we did yesterday with the Tigers but more so with the Dodgers and the starting pitching. Typically, Detroit would fall into a play on situation if it were the underdog as it has lost the first three games of this series and six straight overall to the Angels going back to last season. Los Angeles meanwhile has won the last three games following a 1-4 skid and is doing its best to keep pace in the American League West. The contrarian aspect comes in the form of the pitching matchup between David Price and Matt Shoemaker. Price is the favorite largely in part because of his name and that his ERA is 2.97 compared to a 5.44 ERA for Shoemaker. However, they are much closer in form because they both possess a 1.17 WHIP which is a better indicator. Also, the Tigers are 5-0 in Price's five road starts while the Angels are 0-4 in Shoemaker's four home starts but he has pitched better than his numbers indicate. Eight home runs have been the issue which can be considered anomalies as hew allowed only 14 dingers all of last season. 10* (978) Los Angeles Angels |
|||||||
05-31-15 | Chicago White Sox +132 v. Houston Astros | Top | 6-0 | Win | 132 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
The White Sox got shutout yesterday 3-0 behind a masterful performance from Dallas Keuchel and they will be out to get the series win before heading back home. They will also be out to square up the overall roadtrip at 4-4 and I expect the offense to recover from Saturday's lack of anything. The Astros snapped their two-game skid with the win and kept their lead at five games in the National League West. They send Roberto Hernandez to the hill who started off the season outstanding but has fallen back some since. He posted a 3.80 ERA through his first four starts but has put up a 5.52 ERA in his last five starts. Houston is 5-4 in his starts because the offense has given him 8.6 rpg in those wins, the most in baseball. John Danks counters for the White Sox and he has been all over the place as well. After allowing three earned runs or less in five straight starts, he has allowed 11 runs over his last two outings but that spells bounceback here. Additionally, Danks will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder as in two starts against Houston last season, he allowed seven runs in each. 10* (967) Chicago White Sox |
|||||||
05-30-15 | Detroit Tigers +120 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The Detroit offense has been sputtering during this recent roadtrip as the Tigers have scored just six runs in five games, getting shutout twice including a 2-0 loss last night. It was the second straight loss to the Angels in this series and fifth straight going back to last season where is has managed a mere four runs. Now the Angels are favored by the biggest amount over that span and we will take advantage. The Angels have won two straight games to pull within five games of the Astros in the American League West and they sent Jered Weaver to the hill who has turned his season completely around. After posting a 6.29 ERA through his first six starts, Weaver has put up four straight quality outings, posting a 1.50 ERA in the process with the Angels winning all four of those games. Yes, we are going contrarian against that. Shane Green has been all over the place with four poor starts but also six very strong outings including five where he has allowed no runs or one run. He is coming off an average performance at Oakland but I expect a rebound tonight in his first career start against the Angels, which is a big edge for him. 10* (925) Detroit Tigers |
|||||||
05-30-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers +142 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 142 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
We are going contrarian with the Dodgers here as we are going against a hot Cardinals team at home, going against a so far unbeatable pitcher and backing a team that cannot score on the road. Los Angeles lost the opener of this series last night as it was shutout 3-0 which was the fourth straight road game that the Dodgers have not scored and the streak is at 37 scoreless innings. St. Louis won its fifth straight game and also captured its fifth straight home game. The Cardinals are tough to beat here no doubt and with Michael Wacha on the hill, they have become significant favorites. Wacha is 7-0 with a 1.87 ERA on the season and in nine starts, the Cardinals are 9-0 which sets up the perfect contrarian situation coupled with the Dodgers lack of road offense. He has made only three home starts and while still solid, his road work has been better. Carlos Frias has some gaudy looking numbers but that is based on just one bad start, his last one where he allowed 10 runs in four innings against San Diego. His ERA coming into that game was 2.82 through four starts so we can chalk the last one up an as anomaly. 10* (909) Los Angeles Dodgers |
|||||||
05-29-15 | Washington Nationals v. Cincinnati Reds +115 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Washington has taken over first place in the National League East thanks to a 21-6 run over the last month. The Nationals have been getting it done recently with starting pitching as the offense has shown little by scoring three runs or less in six of their last seven games. Cincinnati has been on a dreadful run as it has lost 10 of its last 11 games with both pitching and offense struggling but I see this as a game where both factors recharge. Stephen Strasburg is a road favorite for the fifth straight game which is no surprise because he is backed by the public on a regular basis. He is having a very tough season as he has just one quality outing in 10 starts including none on the road in five games. His road ERA is 7.56 and the Nationals are 3-7 in his last 10 road starts against teams with a losing record. The Reds counter with Anthony DeSclafani who is having a very good season with the exception of one bad start against the Giants. His ERA is 3.46 through nine starts with that dropping to 2.57 in eight starts taking that one outing away. 10* (954) Cincinnati Reds |
|||||||
05-29-15 | Miami Marlins +166 v. New York Mets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 166 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
We will be going against another public favorite here as the Mets remain home and look to add to their four-game winning streak at Citi Field following a three-game sweep of the Phillies to open this homestand. They are now 20-6 at home with that factoring in the line as well as the starting pitcher who is being backed as the biggest consensus of the day. Matt Harvey is coming off his worst start of the season and in his career after he allowed seven runs in four innings against the Pirates. While many expect a bounceback, there could be more to the dead arm talk that manager Terry Collins says he very well could be going through at this point. Miami is one of five teams he has faced at least three times and his ERA of 4.03 is the worst of the bunch. Dan Haren is a top line starting pitcher and backing him at a line of this size is a bonus. He got hammered by his former team the Dodgers three starts back but has bounced back with two gems, posting a 1.29 ERA over 14 innings. He has allowed two runs or less in seven of nine starts this season. 10* (955) Miami Marlins |
|||||||
05-29-15 | Colorado Rockies +160 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 4-1 | Win | 160 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Two of the worst teams in the National League square off tonight and we will be on the underdog with this very overpriced line. The Rockies got off to a very good start, got ice cold, but have won four of their last five games including two of three to open this roadtrip. The Phillies are coming off a dreadful roadtrip but bring in a five-game home winning streak which is also playing into this line. The main reason though is Cole Hamels who is having a great season but Philadelphia is just 6-4 in his 10 starts and this is by far the most he has been favored by this season. That is not a good thing as the Phillies are 3-7 in Hamels' last 10 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Colorado goes with Chad Bettis who is making his fourth start of the season and he has been pretty efficient for the most part. He has tossed two straight quality outings including one against the Phillies where he allowed three runs in six innings and on the season, Philadelphia is hitting just .227 against right-handed pitching. 10* (951) Colorado Rockies |
|||||||
05-28-15 | Atlanta Braves +130 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
The Braves were able to salvage a game with the Dodgers and avoid the sweep thanks to a solid performance from Alex Wood who outdueled Zack Greinke. They can take that into tonight as they head to San Francisco for the first game of a four-game set. The Giants are hot right now as they are coming off a three-game sweep in Milwaukee and they head home riding a three-game winning streak at AT&T Park, which all happened to be shutouts against the Dodgers. Don't expect that to continue as the Giants send Chris Heston to the hill and while he has had his share of good moments, the majority of his starts of late have been horrible. After opening the season with three straight quality outings, he has allowed five runs or more in four of his last six starts, posting a 6.48 ERA in the process. On the other side, Shelby Miller has been outstanding with a 1.50 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through nine starts and his outings have accounted for over 1/3 of the Braves total wins. Last season, he finished strong with a 2.92 ERA in his last 12 starts for St. Louis so this is no fluke. 10* (903) Atlanta Braves |
|||||||
05-28-15 | Chicago White Sox - Game #1 v. Baltimore Orioles - Game #1 +141 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
The White Sox and Orioles are playing an unscheduled double-header today to make up for two postponements in April and we are taking a look at the opener which is a great example of how starting pitching names can often overinflate lines. The White Sox salvaged a win in Toronto yesterday but they are still just 2-7 over their last nine games and rarely will you find a team favored by this much on a run like that. It is because of Chris Sale who is the ace of the staff but he has been very inconsistent this season. He only has one victory in his past six starts and he has his highest ERA this deep into a season since becoming a starter in 2012. Facing the Orioles has not been pleasant as he is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA in three starts, his highest ERA against any American League opponent. Tyler Wilson counters for Baltimore and he is another reason this line is big since this is his first ever Major League start. Wilson has posted a 3.29 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 32 strikeouts over 41 innings at Norfolk this season. The Chicago offense is far from intimidating and going back, the White Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. 10* (914) Baltimore Orioles (Game One) |
|||||||
05-27-15 | San Diego Padres +153 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 5-4 | Win | 153 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
San Diego won a pitcher's duel last night as a 0-0 game went into extra innings before the Padres scored four runs in the top of the tenth inning. They need to carry this forward as they have not won consecutive games since May 13-14 but I think they are in good position tonight before heading back home. The Angels haven't been doing much of late either as they are just 4-6 over their last 10 games and are 6.5-games behind Houston in the American League West. I often mention tough luck pitchers and Andrew Cashner is near the top of the list. Since picking up his first win of the season on April 19th, he has posted a 3.00 ERA in six starts, five being quality outings, and he is 0-5 in those games. Run support is the problem as he got just five runs in those games and that is the epitome of bad luck. Scoring against Garrett Richards doesn't seem to be an easy task but he is coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed five runs in six innings against Boston. The 10th inning last night may give that Padres offense a needed spark and getting an elite pitcher like Cashner at this price is an easy take. 10* (979) San Diego Padres |
|||||||
05-27-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 216.5 | Top | 90-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The under came through in the first three games of this series before Game Four easily went over the number by 29 points. Because of that result, we are seeing the total rise back up slightly for Game Five which goes back to Golden St. where the Warriors look to finish off Houston. Like Cleveland last night, they want to end it here to avoid another game and get as much rest as possible. The Cavaliers did it with defense to close out Atlanta and I expect Golden St. to turn up the defense after allowing 128 points on Monday which was the most amount of points they have given up all season. The Warriors have allowed 100 or more points in the playoffs only three times and the first two times they clamped down in the next game. While many take Golden St. as an explosive team that often plays high-scoring games, that couldn't be further from the truth as 42 of their 95 games have stayed below the total. The under is 6-0-1 in the Warriors last seven home games while the under is 9-4 in the Rockets last 13 games against winning teams. Look for Golden St. to regroup on defense which will be the key for a low scoring game tonight. 10* Under (517) Houston Rockets/(518) Golden St. Warriors |
|||||||
05-27-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +171 v. New York Mets | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
The Phillies have lost the first two games of this series and after a solid 7-1 run, they have gone 1-5 over their last six games and are out to end this 10-game roadtrip with a victory. New York has taken the first two games after 1-5 run and I feel they are overpriced here with a lot of that because of hype. The hype is surrounding Noah Syndergaard who is a top pitching prospect and after three starts, he has shown why. He has a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP but the Mets are just 1-2 in those games as he has gotten little run support in those two losses. I expect that to continue as the Mets offense has been poor and Sean O'Sullivan has been pitching excellent for the Phillies. He has a 3.54 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through five starts and while Philadelphia is 1-4 in those games, three of those losses came against Washington and all were against Max Scherzer so that is a situation of bad timing and poor luck. O'Sullivan got just six total runs in those games which is no surprise but expect more today and the Mets are 15-38 in their last 53 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 10* (955) Philadelphia Phillies |
|||||||
05-27-15 | Kansas City Royals +131 v. New York Yankees | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
The Royals offense has been held in check through the first two games of this series as they have managed only one run in each game which now makes it three straight games they have scored a single run, all resulting in losses. This is the worst offensive stretch of the season but I expect a turnaround today. The Yankees came into this series riding a six-game losing streak and because of the mini run and who they are, they are listed as an overinflated favorite today. Michael Pineda is coming off a pair of poor outings, allowing nine runs over 11.1 combined innings with one of those coming against the Royals where he gave up five runs in 5.1 innings. His WHIP is a solid 1.14 but the Royals are 23-9 in their last 32 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Chris Young has been the story for Kansas City in his limited action in the rotation as he has been lights out. He has allowed a total of one earned run over his four starts this season and owns a 0.78 ERA and 23/9 K/BB ratio in 34.2 innings on the year. We ride the hot arm in what is now his biggest underdog role of the season. 10* (967) Kansas City Royals |
|||||||
05-26-15 | Atlanta Braves +229 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
The Dodgers took the opener of this series on Monday to improve to 20-6 at home and remain two games up in the National League West. The home record along with the starting pitcher is making this price very steep and this is a great opportunity to go against that. The Braves are sitting right at .500 after having won seven of their last 10 games and a big reason for backing them here is the fact they are also at the top of their starting rotation. Julio Teheran is their number one guy and while he has had a couple of poor outings, he has looked good his last two starts and overall, Atlanta has won six of his nine starts. Braves are 14-5 in Teheran's last 19 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Los Angeles went 23-4 when giving the ball to Clayton Kershaw last season but he has struggled in nearly every facet of the game this season. The Dodgers have already lost five of his starts as he has posted a 4.32 ERA and his 16 walks are already over half of what he issues all of last season. 10* (913) Atlanta Braves |
|||||||
05-26-15 | Boston Red Sox v. Minnesota Twins +125 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 125 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
This line doesn't make a whole lot of sense as it is based on name for the most part. The Twins opened the series with a win yesterday to make it three straight victories while moving eight games over .500. Boston meanwhile fell three games under .500 yet comes in as a significant favorite tonight. Clay Buchholz gets the ball for the Red Sox and he has been solid of late, posting a 2.49 ERA over his last three starts after a pair of rough outings. Overall he has been average though and Boston is just 2-7 in his nine starts and under the lights, Buchholz is 0-4 with a 5.88 ERA with the Red Sox going winless in six starts. Mike Pelfrey has been one of the keys to the Twins resurgence as he has a 3.00 ERA on the season with the Twins taking six of his eight starts with all six being in the underdog role. He has been outstanding at home with a 2.35 ERA and Minnesota is 3-0 in his three home starts. Additionally, he is just the opposite of Buchholz at night as he is 3-0 with a 1.41 ERA and Minnesota has yet to lose in his five nighttime starts. 10* (926) Minnesota Twins |
|||||||
05-26-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -8 | Top | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
We saw the Rockets avoid getting swept by the Warriors last night and Atlanta will try and do the same tonight but the difference is big being on the road as opposed to home. The Hawks are a very respectable 28-20 on the highway but losing a tough game in overtime that could have changed the look of the series will be tough to overcome. Cleveland has won 25 of its last 27 home games and while one of those has come in the postseason against the Bulls, the Hawks have not looked like the same Hawks team during the regular season. They are just 8-7 in the playoffs with half of those wins coming by five points or less against much weaker competition. The Cavaliers played their second consecutive game without point guard Kyrie Irving, who again sat out due to left knee tendinitis. Irving averaged 21.7 points and 5.2 assists during the regular season and is averaging 18.9 points and 3.5 assists in the playoffs. Matthew Dellavedova has filled in and while he is no Irving, he has played very well on both ends of the floor. If there is one team that could use some rest, it is the Cavaliers as they don't want to go back to Atlanta on Thursday and would love nine days off before the NBA Finals start June 4th. 10* (516) Cleveland Cavaliers |
|||||||
05-25-15 | Seattle Mariners +134 v. Tampa Bay Rays | Top | 4-1 | Win | 134 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Tampa Bay remains in first place in the American League East but by the slimmest of margins following going 0-2 in its last series against the worst team in baseball. Seattle meanwhile took its series against Toronto over the weekend despite losing the series finale but the Mariners have won their last four games following a defeat. Roenis Elias has deserved a better fate this season and he got a portion in his last start as he picked up the victory over Baltimore on Wednesday. He allowed just one run over 7.2 innings against the Orioles which was his fifth straight start of allowing three runs or less to start the season. Three of those have come on the road where his 3.05 ERA is solid but his 1.06 WHIP is even better.. Jake Odorizzi counters for Tampa Bay and while he has been equally as solid, the Rays offense has let him down. He has gotten just four runs of support over his last three starts and on the season, they are giving him only 1.9 rpg. Going back, the Rays are 0-4 in Odorizzi's last four starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (977) Seattle Mariners |
|||||||
05-25-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks +153 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Arizona won its series against the Cubs and is quietly riding a 6-1 run as it hits the road for the 20th game on the highway. The Diamondbacks are a very respectable 10-9 in their first 19 road games. St. Louis meanwhile lost its most recent series against Kansas City but did win the finale on Sunday behind another strong performance from Michael Wacha. Today, the Cardinals turn to Carlos Martinez who started the season on absolute fire but has since come back to earth. He allowed 16 runs over a three-game non-quality start stretch but to his credit, he did bounce back last time out against the Mets where he allowed just one run in 6.1 innings. He was fortunate to get a 7-0 lead behind him after four innings to take he pressure off but don't expect that today against Chase Anderson who has been awesome all season. He has allowed just three runs over his last four starts and was finally abler to pick up his first win last time out against the Marlins as his offense came through. Look for more of that today as his hot start stays intact. 10* (959) Arizona Diamondbacks |
|||||||
05-24-15 | New York Mets +154 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
After a strong start to the season, the Mets have taken a step back, most recently losing four of their last five games but they are catching a very solid number on Sunday in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are still just two games under .500 as their two-game winning streak was preceded by a 1-6 run and they have been unable to maintain any huge runs the entire season. New York turns to Jon Niese who is coming off a dreadful outing where he allowed eight runs in five innings against the Cardinals last time out. After allowing one run or less in five of his first six starts, the last two have not gone well but this is a good time for a bounceback as he is 3-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in three career starts at PNC Park. Francisco Liriano is also coming off a poor outing as well and he has not been very sharp all season. Especially at home where he dominated last season but is 0-3 with a 7.45 ERA in four starts with the Pirates going 0-4 in those games. 10* (901) New York Mets |
|||||||
05-24-15 | Cincinnati Reds +162 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
The Reds outhit Cleveland 9-4 yesterday but managed to plate just one run and while today's price isn't as big, it is still overinflated based on recent results. It was the fifth win in a row for the Indians and the seventh loss in a row for the Reds with the latter once again being big underdogs. Cleveland sends Raisel Iglesias to the hill and he is making his third spot start of the season, this time in the place of Johnny Cueto. His last one on May 13th was a gem over the Braves as he allowed just one run over eight innings. Trevor Bauer counters for Cleveland and he is coming off back-to-back outings where he allowed just one run over 7.1 innings against the Cardinals and White Sox. That came after consecutive duds where he allowed 11 runs over 9.1 combined innings so he is quite capable of going backwards once again. Despite the skid, the Reds are 4-1 in their last five games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (925) Cincinnati Reds |
|||||||
05-23-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Houston Rockets +1.5 | Top | 115-80 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
While the Rockets may be down 2-0 in this series, they have shown they can hang with the best team in the NBA as two close losses have been the difference. Houston lost all four games during the regular season but those were all blowouts so the Rockets have adjusted to keep things close and returning home is the chance to get back into this series. Falling behind 3-0 simply cannot happen if they want to have any chance and they are in a solid spot tonight based on the fact they are a home underdog. Houston has been a home dog nine times during the season and has won six of those outright while covering seven of those. This including winning both of these situation against the Clippers in the postseason. Winning these close games is certainly a positive for Golden St. as that is what the elite teams do in the postseason. But those were at home where the Warriors have lost just three times all season and now they hit the road where they are still very good but very vulnerable. Golden St. is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following a win while the Rockets are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss. 10* (510) Houston Rockets |
|||||||
05-23-15 | Cincinnati Reds +187 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
We backed the Reds last night but they fell for the sixth straight game and they are a much better team than this right now. They were a game over .500 prior to this skid but still have the same record as Cleveland but the Indians are a huge overinflated team today largely based on their run and their pitcher for today. The Indians having won four in a row and chalk eaters will be all over Corey Kluber today. He is coming off two consecutive dominant performances which came on the heels of four straight very below average outings. Obviously because he is a Cy Young pitcher, the latter is the better indicator of who he really is but there is something not right and even when he was pitching good prior to that, the Indians were still losing and are 1-8 in his nine starts on the season. Anthony DeSclafani is coming off a poor outing where he allowed six runs in three innings against the Giants but he was on a solid run prior to that, allowing three runs or less in six of his first seven starts, including three of four on the road. 10* (975) Cleveland Indians |
|||||||
05-23-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +144 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 8-1 | Win | 144 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Washington escaped with a 2-1 victory last night to open this series which was its sixth straight win to increase its lead in the National League East to a game and a half. The Phillies have lost two straight after a 7-1 run and they are full of value today. Coming off his best year as a professional, Cole Hamels is once again having a very solid season. He has a 3.24 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, the fourth straight season his WHIP has been sub-1.20. Because he plays on a bad team, he tends to get solid numbers at the betting window as he has been a dog six times, winning four of those, and now he comes in as the biggest underdog he has been all season. That is because the Nationals are playing well and because Stephen Strasburg is on the hill who I think remains a very overrated thrower. His numbers this season tell that as his 5.98 ERA and 1.645 WHIP are well below average. His ERA at home is 3.45 which seems solid but that is negated by a 1.60 WHIP at home which is a better indicator of how it has been going. 10* (953) Philadelphia Phillies |
|||||||
05-22-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -1 | Top | 94-82 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
We lost with the Hawks in Game One but will come back with them here in what is a must win spot to stay in the series. Atlanta looked particularly good in the first half against the Cavaliers but a poor start to the second half put them behind by double-digits and they could not recover. The difference in that first game was simple. The overall shooting was very even but Cleveland was 10-26 from long range while the Hawks went just 4-23 from beyond the arc and that was the obvious difference. The majority came from J.R. Smith who was an unconscious 8-12 from three-point land from off the bench. Do not expect a repeat from him and we can expect a better showing from Atlanta as well. That was just the eighth home loss of the season for Atlanta compared to 40 wins and the Hawks have not lost consecutive home games all season, going a perfect 7-0 in their next home game after losing their previous home game. Additionally, Atlanta has covered its last four playoff games coming off a non-cover and while it has already lost home court advantage in this series, Atlanta knows it has to get the job done tonight. 10* (508) Atlanta Hawks |
|||||||
05-22-15 | Milwaukee Brewers +123 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 11-0 | Win | 123 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Milwaukee has lost two straight games including getting blasted 10-1 in this series opener on Thursday. The Brewers have scored two runs ort less in six of their last nine games, all resulting in losses, so getting the bats going is imperative. The Braves meanwhile have won two straight and five of six to move to .500 on the season despite many considering this to be a rebuilding season. Alex Wood has been hit or miss this season as only half of his eight starts have been quality outings, including going 0-4 under the lights. Despite a respectable 3.83 ERA, his 1.53 WHIP is a big concern and that balloons to 1.81 at home. Wily Peralta is coming off a poor start against the Mets but expect a bounce back similar to the one after his last poor start which was the beginning of four straight quality games. In three starts against Atlanta, he has allowed two runs or less all three times. 10* (905) Milwaukee Brewers |
|||||||
05-22-15 | Oakland A's +127 v. Tampa Bay Rays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
The A's completely redid their lineup this season and the changes have not been good as they have won just two times in their last 15 games. Still, they have had some bad luck along the way as they are just -14 in run differential no thanks to a 2-13 record in one run games. Wit the win in this series opener yesterday, Tampa Bay has taken over sole possession of first place in the American League East. Pitching has been the key but Oakland brings that to the table as well with Scott Kazmir. After starting the season with five straight quality outings, he has struggled in two of his last three games but his 2.84 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his six nighttime starts gives the confidence of a rebound tonight. Chris Archer counters for Tampa Bay and after going four straight starts without allowing a run, he has a 4.84 ERA over his last four starts despite the last two being quality. Going back, the Rays are 3-8 in Archer's last 11 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. 10* (919) Oakland A's |
|||||||
05-22-15 | Texas Rangers +173 v. New York Yankees | Top | 10-9 | Win | 173 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The Yankees are in the midst of a big slump and have fallen out of first place in the American League East. After opening with a win at Tampa Bay to open their most recent roadtrip, the Yankees went 1-7 the rest of the way. Texas was able to notch a second straight win over Boston to take the series and going back, it has been very solid on the road with wins in eight of its last 11 games all of which have been as underdogs. Colby Lewis has been extremely solid in the rotation despite coming off his worst start where he allowed five runs against Cleveland. Even with that, he owns a 3.06 ERA and most important, a 1.12 WHIP in eight starts. He has a 2.67 ERA in his last four starts against the Yankees. Michael Pineda is also coming off his worst start of the season and while his numbers are very similar to those of Lewis, his price is overinflated here because of the names and not the production. 10* (915) Texas Rangers |
|||||||
05-22-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Toronto Blue Jays +139 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Seattle and Toronto are two early season disappointments and both are going through recent struggles. The Mariners lost yesterday to Baltimore to fall t0 7-12 on the road while Toronto was able to snap a two-game skid and salvage a series split with the Angels. While the pitching matchup seems to heavily favor the Mariners, the disparity is not that big. Felix Hernandez is coming off his first loss of the season and this is not the team we would like to face to try and rebound against. He's gone 5-6 in 13 starts with a 4.80 ERA against Toronto which is the highest ERA against any opponent he has faced more than once. Four of his last 15 starts where he has allowed at least six runs have come against the Blue Jays. Marco Estrada has been average in his three starts since entering the rotation but he has done enough to keep Toronto in games as the bullpen has allowed eight earned runs in his games. This is his first ever start against the Mariners, a big advantage. 10* (918) Toronto Blue Jays |
|||||||
05-22-15 | Cincinnati Reds +145 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
There is not much difference between the Reds and Indians this season, even when you look at the home/road splits, and there is a significant difference in starting pitching, with it actually favoring Cincinnati despite what this line may be telling us. The Indians took the final three games in Chicago to go 5-2 on their roadtrip but they are just 6-12 at Progressive Field this year. The Reds meanwhile has lost five straight which is certainly playing into this line but I expect Mike Leake to get the team back on track while he bounces back from his own nightmare. He allowed nine runs in five innings against the Giants after coming into that game with a 2.36 ERA through his first seven starts. We can chalk the last game up to an anomaly and he has been very steady with a 3.55 ERA over the last three seasons. Carlos Carrasco was supposed to be sleeper candidate after a strong 2014 but he has been all over the place with just two quality outings in eight starts and he does not deserve to be favored by this amount. 10* (925) Cincinnati Reds |
|||||||
05-21-15 | Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10 | Top | 98-99 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The under came in for Game One of this series and it was pretty fortunate for under bettors as a 113-point first half was followed up by a 103-point second half. We are not seeing a huge move going into Game Two and after neither teams shot lights out, I think we are going to see a shootout tonight. When you think Golden St., you think offense and while that is the case, the Warriors have been on a huge under run. They have stayed below the total in seven of their last eight games but a lot of that is due to the opposition and the pace involved. Golden St. is coming off two series against the third slowest and sixth slowest teams in the league in term of pace and in this series, they are facing the only team faster than them. Only six teams have averaged 170 or more shot attempts per game combined on offense and defense and these two teams are part of that group. Obviously the ball has to go in the hole for this to be high scoring but I expect much better shooting tonight than we saw on Tuesday. While the Warriors under trends have been dominating, the Rockets offset that as they are 5-1 to the over in their last six road games and 11-5 to the over after scoring 100 or more points last time out. 10* Over (505) Houston Rockets/(506) Golden St. Warriors |
|||||||
05-21-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Chicago White Sox +118 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The Indians cashed for us on Tuesday after we lost with them Monday in extra innings and they have cooled down the red hot White Sox with two straight wins. Now after being underdogs in the first three games of this series, they are favorites and I'm not sure why. Cleveland is a game under .500 on the road which certainly isn't horrible but it has won just one of its last five as a road favorite and despite the consecutive wins the last two days, the Indians are 3-13 in their last 16 games following a win. Chicago is four games over .500 at home and the White Sox are 5-0 in their last five games as an underdog of +110 to +150. John Danks gets the call for the White Sox and is once again getting little respect at home. He has a 3.99 ERA in 18 home starts including a 3.32 ERA this year in three starts, all being quality outings. Chicago has won all three of those and going back to last season, his last three home starts against Cleveland have been quality as well. Danny Salazar has been very average with only half of his starts being quality performances and he has been lucky with run support despite a 4.06 ERA including a 5.11 ERA under the lights. 10* (974) Chicago White Sox |
|||||||
05-21-15 | Seattle Mariners +108 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
We won with Seattle last night and we will be backing the Mariners this afternoon with the series on the line. They are not as big of an underdog as they were Wednesday but I think any sort of plus money is big here. Seattle is 7-4 in its last 11 games so while it is not meeting early expectations overall, it is playing better and is again in a good spot today. Baltimore is still under .500 for the season following yesterday's defeat and going back, the Orioles are 3-9 in their last 12 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. J.A. Happ has been an excellent acquisition for the Mariners as he has posted a 2.98 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in seven starts with five of those resulting as quality performances. He has had success against the Orioles as he has made seven starts against them, posting a 2.93 ERA. Chris Tillman has been just the opposite for the Orioles as he has put up only two quality outings while posting a dismal 6.34 ERA and 1.64 WHIP through eight starts. There is even more concern as he was pushed back a few days due to back stiffness, but he was cleared after getting through a game of catch Tuesday with no issues. Anything related to a back problem is a flag. 10* (963) Seattle Mariners |
|||||||
05-20-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -1 | Top | 97-89 | Loss | -103 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
Cleveland and Atlanta had identical series in the Eastern Conference semis as both lost the opener, won Game Two, lost Game Three on the road and went on the win the final three games, two of which were on the highway. Those finishes do not give us a clear indicator of which team is better equipped to start this series strong but I give the edge to Atlanta for being home as well as the line value aspect. The Cavaliers were getting two and half points in Game Six in Chicago and are now getting just one point against the best team in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta took three of four against Cleveland during the regular season and while LeBron James did miss one of those games that the Hawks won, they outplayed the Cavaliers in the other two wins and this is no doubt a statement game for Atlanta as they are still being considered the underdog in this series. The Hawks want to and probably need to come out strong as a Game One loss really puts the pressure on them in Game Two which they do not need. Atlanta ha lost at home only seven times all season and going back, they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record while the Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (504) Atlanta Hawks |
|||||||
05-20-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks +125 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 125 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The change in manager has not helped Miami as it has dropped both games since Mike Redmond was fired on Sunday. The Marlins have now dropped five straight games and eight of their last nine, scoring three runs or less in all eight of those defeats. Arizona snapped a four-game losing streak with the win Monday and will be seeking its second three-game winning streak of the season. Chase Anderson gets the ball for the Diamondbacks and he can be lumped into the "tough luck pitchers" group. He looks to an eight-start winless stretch dating to last season, though he's been mostly reliable this year, allowing two runs or less in five of seven starts and overall has a 2.81 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His 2.16 rpg of support this season is the second-lowest in baseball which is the tough luck part. David Phelps has been solid as well but while his ERA is lower, his WHIP of 1.27 is higher and jumps to a gaudy 1.69 at home. The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last four games as a road underdog while the Marlins are 1-10 in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (901) Arizona Diamondbacks |
|||||||
05-20-15 | Seattle Mariners +125 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 4-2 | Win | 125 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This play is as contrarian as it gets but I think the price is right. Seattle lost the opener of this series last night but it is still 6-4 over its last 10 games and while the road has not been kind, the Mariners are in a rare underdog spot as they are on the plus side for just the 10th time in 39 games. Baltimore is still under .500 for the season despite two straight wins and going back, the Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Wei-Yin Chen is off to a good start this season with a 2.53 ERA and 1.08 WHIP but he has just one win to show for it through seven starts. Baltimore is just 2-2 in his four home starts and it is laying the biggest moneyline of the bunch tonight as the next largest was -113. Despite allowing three runs or less in all four starts this season including three straight quality outings, Roenis Elias is winless and the Mariners are 0-4 in those games. He is another recipient of low run support but that is due to get reversed. He allowed just two runs in 10.2 innings in two starts against Baltimore last season. 10* (915) Seattle Mariners |
|||||||
05-20-15 | Milwaukee Brewers +153 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
We won with Milwaukee last night as a significant underdog and we will back the Brewers again tonight. The Tigers are again the largest public consensus tonight as chalk eaters are banking on them to snap their three-game losing skid where they have scored just four runs total. Going back, they have scored two runs or less in seven of their last 10 games. After a pathetic 4-17 start, the Brewers are showing signs of a pulse with an 11-8 record over their last 19 games and send Kyle Lohse to the hill. Yesterday I mentioned how Jimmy Nelson was better than his numbers show as most people look at ERA and not WHIP or BAA and that is the case with Lohse. He has a gaudy 5.85 ERA but a solid 1.20 WHIP and on the road, his WHIP drops to 0.95 where is allowing opponents to hit just .192. Shane Green has been all over the place as he has allowed a run or less in five starts while allowing 20 runs in his other three starts. Detroit is just 2-2 in four home starts and 2-3 under the lights and the Brewers are 5-2 in their last seven road games against right-handed starters. 10* (925) Milwaukee Brewers |
|||||||
05-19-15 | Houston Rockets +10 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 36 h 7 m | Show |
The top two seeds from each conference made the conference finals but it certainly was not a given, especially for the Rockets. They trailed the Clippers in their conference semi three games to one but rolled at home in Game Five, had a miraculous comeback in Game Six and never trailed in Game Seven to take the series. Those last three victories were all as underdogs which shows a lot of character but now the challenge is even greater. Facing top seed Golden St. will have an added element as Houston will try and rebound from losing all four meeting during the regular season, all of which were decided by double digits. That is a big reason the Rockets are catching double-digits here and I simply think it is too many points in this spot even more so considering they have not been a double-digit underdog all season long. The Warriors are a great team there is no doubt but asking any team to win by double-digits in a conference final against an elite team is asking too much. Houston has covered five straight games following a double-digit win and the confidence that came from that series comeback will still be there thanks to having only one day off heading into Game One. 10* (501) Houston Rockets |
|||||||
05-19-15 | Cleveland Indians +123 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 123 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with Cleveland last night as the pitchers duel between Corey Kluber and Chris Sale lived up to expectations but didn't go our way in extra innings. I like the Indians to bounce back tonight and cool off the red hot White Sox which have won six straight games, tied with the Phillies for the longest current winning streak in baseball. The Indians are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a loss and while they are on the fire, the White Sox are 0-4 in their last four games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Trevor Bauer opened the season with four straight quality outings before getting hit hard in consecutive games against Toronto and Minnesota but he bounced back with a quality performance against the Cardinals last time out. In three starts against the White Sox going back to last season, he has a 0.92 ERA. Chicago counters with Jose Quintana who is having a good season with the exception of two horrible outings. Run support is a huge issue as he is getting just 2.57 rpg including a mere 2.0 rpg in two home starts. The White Sox are 4-12 in Quintana's last 16 starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (969) Cleveland Indians |
|||||||
05-19-15 | Cincinnati Reds +112 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Cincinnati opened its most recent homestand by going 3-1 but closed on a 0-3 stretch where the pitching was atrocious, allowing 30 runs to the Giants. While they are two games under .500, they are probably better off leaving town to try and get back to winning. The Royals took two of three against the Yankees over the weekend to keep hold of first place in the American League Central which the lead now sits at a game and a half. Anytime you can catch Johnny Cueto as an underdog, it is always worth a look and in this case, it is worth a play. He is having another solid season with a 2.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in eight starts and while his road ERA is 4.30, his road WHIP is 1.09 which is a better indicator. The Reds are 13-3 in his last 16 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Yordano Ventura is one of the better young pitchers in the game but he is having a tough season with a 5.36 ERA and 1.39 WHIP through seven starts, two of which have been quality. The Royals are 0-4 in Ventura's last four starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (979) Cincinnati Reds |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.