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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-28-15 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Green Bay Packers -6 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
The Packers are off to a non-surprising 2-0 start as they took out Chicago Week One and then defeated the Seahawks last week in primetime. While many could consider this a letdown, the fact they have five straight non-divisional games right after this puts them in a position where they can run the table and start off 8-0 before their next NFC North game which is against the Lions. The Chiefs lost a heartbreaker last week against the Broncos as they allowed two touchdowns in a span of nine seconds in the final minute of the game to even their record out at 1-1. The first game was a suspect victory however as they defeated the Texans but were actually outgained in doing so. It is pretty common knowledge at this point about how good Aaron Rodgers has been at home but the fact that he has thrown 43 touchdowns with no interceptions with a 124 passer rating in his last 18 games at home is pretty amazing. Going back, the Packers have won 31 of their last 32 regular-season home games in which Rodgers was the primary quarterback. This does not count the loss to the Bears two years ago where he left with an injury. He may not have the services of Eddie Lacy tonight but he was a non-factor last week against Seattle and his backup James Starks provides a more than capable backup. While there are some key factors that favor the Packers, they are in a very simple yet effective situation where we play on teams on Monday night that have yet to lose and going up against a non-divisional opponent. This situation is 20-4 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1990. 10* (490) Green Bay Packers |
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09-27-15 | Buffalo Bills +3 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show |
After a huge win over the Colts in their season opener, the Bill laid an egg last week against the Patriots as Tom Brady torched them for 466 yards passing and three touchdowns while Tyrod Taylor tossed three picks and was sacked eight times. Now they head out for their first road game and it is a very important early season divisional game. The Dolphins are 1-1 and are fortunate not to be 0-2 as they were outgained in both games. Many will expect a bounceback here but I am not one of them as they looked horrible last week against a poor Jaguars team. The Dolphins defense gave up six plays of 21-plus yards to Jacksonville last week. Like the Jets, they are in a historically difficult lookahead situation as they play them in London next week. Teams going over the pond are just 6-14 ATS in the game prior to that including going 3-8 ATS when laying points. This is the first home game for the Dolphins and while public perception thinks that is a good thing, it isn't. Single digit underdogs or favorites are 18-39 ATS in Week Three if it is their first home game. Opposing teams playing in Florida in September is usually a disadvantage but not here as this game is not an early game but an a late afternoon game. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in September games. This situation is 97-54 ATS (64.2 percent) since 1983. The Bills have covered four straight games following a loss and four straight games in a revenge situation. 10* (485) Buffalo Bills |
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09-27-15 | Minnesota Lynx v. Phoenix Mercury -2.5 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
We played on Phoenix in Game One and lost by a bucket as Minnesota was able to pull away at the end thanks to free throws. Now the Mercury on back on their home floor in need of a win to prevent the sweep and ending their season. The home dominance in this series continued Thursday as the host has taken all six meetings this season and going back to last season, the home team has won 12 in a row. Phoenix is 14-4 at home this season including wins in four straight with the latest being a 33-point thrashing of Tulsa in its lone home playoff game. Phoenix has covered five straight meetings at home in this series, winning four by double-digits and the five coming by an average of 13.2 ppg. The Mercury have an awesome situation on their side as well as we play on favorites that are revenging a loss versus opponent going up against an opponent after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1997. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games against teams averaging 73 or more ppg while going 0-6 ATS this season after covering two straight games. 10* (658) Phoenix Mercury |
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09-27-15 | Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 40 m | Show |
The Eagles are one of a handful of disappointing teams that have started 0-2 with Indianapolis, Seattle and Baltimore being the others. The argument every year is which, if any, of these 0-2 teams will make the playoffs as since 1990, just over 11 percent of the teams that start 0-2 have made the postseason. The Eagles are still in good shape to go so with the NFC East already a mess with the Giants entering this week winless and the Cowboys missing their quarterback for at least two months. Talk radio has been all over the Eagles anemic offense and while that has been the case, it has taken time for these new players to gel together. Sam Bradford has looked skittish, Demarco Murray has gained 11 rushing yards and the offensive line has looked helpless at times. This team will turn things around and this is the ideal spot for it to happen. The Jets are coming off a huge road upset at Indianapolis on Monday and while heading home, they are in a tough letdown spot. Making it tougher, they are in a historically difficult lookahead situation as they play the Dolphins in London next week. Teams going over the pond are just 6-14 ATS in the game prior to that including going 3-8 ATS when laying points. Speaking of laying points, the Jets are favored after being a 3.5-point underdog prior to the games last week so we are seeing a huge overreaction line swing. Adding to the situation, the Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. 10* (467) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-27-15 | Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 35-33 | Loss | -120 | 71 h 39 m | Show |
We lost with the Colts Monday night as they were surprisingly dominated by the Jets on their home turf. The public reaction is that they are done but that could be the furthest from the truth. Even though Indianapolis is 0-2, it is still overwhelming favorites to win the AFC South and that will happen. The main reason is that the Colts have dominated their division over the last few years as they have won 13 straight games within the division and with three straight on deck, they will be 3-2 before facing the Patriots. And they don't just win, they dominate as are a perfect 12-0-1 ATS in those games. Tennessee easily took c\are of Tampa Bay in its first game this season but as good as it looked then, it looked similarly as bad last week against the Browns even though it won the yardage battle. This is the first home game for the Titans and while public perception thinks that is a good thing, it isn't. Single digit underdogs or favorites are 18-39 ATS in Week Three if it is their first home game. Additionally, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. It needs to be noted that the Colts started 0-2 with similar Sunday and Monday losses and then went on the road to hammer Jacksonville which started a five game winning streak. Also, Andrew Luck has never dropped three straight games. 10* (477) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-27-15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Houston Texans -6.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
Houston is off to a 0-2 start and tied with the Colts for last place in the AFC South. The Texans were a sleeper pick to contend with Indianapolis and that could still very well happen as the season just started. The biggest issue is that the ground game has been non-existent as they are averaging just 3.6 ypc but leading rusher Chris Polk expressed confidence that they will turn things around. The Buccaneers allowed four touchdowns to Marcus Mariota in his first ever start so we should see the running game get going as Ryan Mallett should perform much better than last week. Tampa Bay followed up that loss with a big upset at New Orleans last week but it was revealed afterward that Drew Brees was hurt throughout the game and the Saints defense is atrocious. We all know wins have been a rarity for the Buccaneers and I do not expect a similar effort here against a much tougher Texas defense even though the numbers have not shown it yet. Going back, the Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Tampa Bay is 2-10 ATS off a win over a division rival as an underdog of six or more points and falls into a negative situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 106-56 ATS (65.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (466) Houston Texans |
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09-27-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. Dallas Cowboys +2 | Top | 39-28 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 38 m | Show |
The Cowboys were favorites by many to win the NFC East but the chances took a huge hit last week after quarterback Tony Romo broke his collarbone and is out at least eight weeks. The odds have gone up slightly and no one seems to be giving them a chance with Brandon Weeden taking over at quarterback because of his horrible past where he has lost his last seven starts. Here's the deal. He knows the system and will have had a full week of practicing with the first unit. Additionally, he got snaps with the first unit in the past as Romo always takes Wednesday off. After coming in last week, Weeden completed all seven of his pass attempts for 73 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons have rewarded new head coach Dan Quinn with a 2-0 record but they could just as well be 0-2 at this point as they have been very fortunate at the end of games with the Eagles and Giants both stepping on their foots with mistakes. Atlanta was outgained by the Eagles and outgained the Giants by just 14 yards so you can see that the record is skewed. Going back, the Falcons are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games and they fall into a negative situation. We play against favorites that averaged 5.4 or more yppl last season, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Dallas head coach Jason Garrett is 22-9 ATS as an underdog. 10* (480) Dallas Cowboys |
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09-26-15 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -2 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 23 m | Show |
We lost with Auburn last week in a horrible call as they were annihilated at LSU by 24 points while getting outgained by 225 total yards. The Tigers return home winless against the spread and we are now getting a very favorable number in a game that they need to win big to turn the season around before it completely implodes. Mississippi St. is coming off an impressive win but it was against an unimpressive Northwestern St. team. Looking two games back, the Bulldogs made things interesting against LSU as they came back late before just falling short. They opened the season on the road against Southern Mississippi and while they won by 18 points, they outgained the Golden Eagles by just 29 yards. They failed to cover and going back, have covered just once in their last five road games. Auburn meanwhile is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games against teams who give up 17 or fewer ppg, 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games off a loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. The Tigers are making a switch at quarterback as Jeremy Johnson has been benched and they are going with redshirt freshman Sean White which can only help matters at this point. 10* (374) Auburn Tigers |
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09-26-15 | Vanderbilt +24.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 50 m | Show |
Mississippi and Alabama played one of the more entertaining games last Saturday and the Rebels were able to hold off a late charge from the Tide to win by six points. The Rebels were outgained however and were very fortunate on a 66-yard touchdown pass that really changed the flow of the game. Mississippi moved from No. 15 to No. 3 in the AP Poll which is a huge jump and all of this does is make them a public darling, thus an inflation of the line. Vanderbilt picked up its first win of the season over Austin Peay last week and while that can be considered unimpressive, looking back at its two losses tells us more. The Commodores lost to a very solid Western Kentucky team despite winning the yardage battle by 147 total yards. Next up, they faced Georgia and while losing by 17 points, they were outgained by just 22 yards against the Bulldogs. One reason for fading the Rebels here is the letdown factor and while it can be argued that they defeated Texas A&M last season after taking down Alabama, they were underdogs against the Aggies and now they are a massive chalk. Additionally, they have Florida on deck. Vanderbilt falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs that average between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 yppl, after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (343) Vanderbilt Commodores |
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09-26-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers +118 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The Twins playoff hopes took another shot yesterday as their loss coupled with the Angels victory over Mariners leapfrogged Los Angeles over Minnesota into third place in the American League Wild Card race. The Twins have dropped two straight and seven of their last 10 games and are in another tough spot tonight. Detroit has now won three games in a row and seven of its last 10 games and is simply playing the role of spoiler at this point. Going back, the Tigers have won five of their last six games against teams with a winning record and they send Alfredo Simon to the hill who is coming off a disaster of a start. He allowed eight runs on 13 hits in just 4.1 innings against the Royals but I expect him to rebound here as he has done many other times this season coming off bad outings. The Tigers are 20-7 in his last 27 starts coming off a win. This is a difficult spot to put Tyler Duffey in as this has turned into a must win weekend. He has tossed three straight quality outings but his 4.98 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road are worrisome. Two situations are on our side as well. First, we play against A.L. road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.40 to 1.50. This situation is 49-14 (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, we play on home teams after a game where they had at least 10 more hits than their opponent, starting a pitcher who allowed seven or more runs last outing. This situation is 48-17 (73.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (972) Detroit Tigers |
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09-26-15 | California v. Washington +4.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 43 m | Show |
California got away with one last week as it defeated Texas on a shanked extra point with just over a minute remaining to move to 3-0 on the season. The Golden Bears were actually outgained by 102 total yards last week against the Longhorns as the defense allowed a whopping 650 yards after Texas gained 440 yards in its first two games combined. That shows how bad the California defense really is and we expect it to get lit up again. Washington is off to a 2-1 start including an impressive win over Utah St. last week. The Huskies offense has been average but facing California will be a quick cure. The defense is the story however as Washington leads the Pac 12 in total defense while being ranked 13th in the country. The Golden Bears have a very potent offense so it will not be an easy task but at this point of the season, I do not think California is a better team than Washington but the linesmakers are saying that the Golden Bears are more than a touchdown better on a neutral field. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) since 1992. California is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games as a road favorite of seven points or less. 10* (404) Washington Huskies |
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09-26-15 | Middle Tennessee State v. Illinois -6 | Top | 25-27 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
Illinois has not had a winning season since 2011 but that should change in 2015. The Illini have started out 2-0 the last three year before losing game three only to bounce back and win game four the last two seasons and will see a repeat of that here. They were very impressive with wins over Kent St. and Western Illinois, albeit those teams are not good, but those victories came by a combined 96-3. Illinois did lose by 34 points last week at North Carolina but it was outgained by just 72 total yards as six drives inside North Carolina territory gained only 14 points. Middle Tennessee comes in 2-1 with two blowout wins over weak opposition as well. The lone loss came on the road at Alabama and it was able to cover because of a late garbage touchdown. The Blue Raiders were outgained by 257 yards and while we aren't comparing Illinois to Alabama, playing a team from a power conference will be another challenge and we are laying a short price going against them. They are 2-21 in their last 23 games against power teams (and BYU) since 2016. The Blue Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a home win against a conference rival while Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after a game where they committed one or less turnovers. 10* (348) Illinois Fighting Illini |
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09-26-15 | Tennessee v. Florida UNDER 48 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 24 m | Show |
Tennessee has put together two high scoring games but the last one can be discounted against Western Carolina of the FCS. The first came against Bowling Green but the Falcons have no defense to speak of and the Volunteers will be facing its toughest defensive test of the season. In their game against Oklahoma, they were shutout in the second half and 12 points in overtime skewed the final score that still remained under the total. Florida has also been involved in two high scoring games but is coming off a defensive game against Kentucky last week. The Gators will also be facing its toughest defense so far so do not expect results like the ones from their first two games. Both teams fall into great low scoring situations. For Tennessee, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 58-25 (70 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. For Florida, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 42-15 (73.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (357) Tennessee Volunteers/(358) Florida Gators |
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09-26-15 | Appalachian State -7.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 73 h 19 m | Show |
We won with NC State last week against Old Dominion and we will be playing Appalachian St. for many of the same reasons. The Mountaineers won their final six games last season and are preseason favorites to win the Sun Belt Conference this season. After non being eligible last year in their first year. They are loaded with 10 returning starters on both sides of the ball and while they were blown out against Clemson in their last game, four turnovers did them in as they were outgained by just 94 yards. That was two weeks ago as well so they have had a long time to stew about that defeat. Old Dominion surpassed expectations last year when it went 6-6 in its first year at the FBS level. The Monarchs won their first two games as it defeated Eastern Michigan despite getting outgained and then beat a weak Norfolk St. team. While there are 15 starters back, the big loss was at quarterback with Taylor Heinicke as his 3,476 yards and 30 touchdowns are gone. He was the 2012 Walter Payton Award winner for the best player in the FCS. Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 37 points or more last game and 0-6 ATS in its last six games after one or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. 10* (389) Appalachian St. Mountaineers |
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09-26-15 | San Diego State +15.5 v. Penn State | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 16 m | Show |
Penn St. came into the season with high expectations but a loss against Temple was not the way to get started. The Nittany Lions bounced back with wins over Buffalo and Rutgers but the offense continues to struggle as they are averaging just 21.7 ppg through three games. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg came in with even higher expectations as a Heisman hopeful and he has been struggling. He has thrown for 372 yards on just 49.3 percent completions while throwing just one touchdown and two interceptions. He has been sacked 10 times and overall Penn St. is ranked 115th out of 128 teams in total offense. The issue comes down to the offensive line which remains a mess. San Diego St. is not having a good year as it has also been struggling on offense and underachieving as well. The Aztecs lost a tough one at home last week against South Alabama as they allowed a 46-yard field goal at the end of regulation and ended up losing in overtime. They hit the road again and while playing on the east coast is not a good situation for west coast teams, the fact that this game is at 3:30 instead of noon is a big advantage. Additionally, the line is overinflated for a team to try and cover by nearly as many points as it is averaging. As for the angles that back the 100% Perfect Power Play, Penn St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six games coming off a home win by 17 points or more while going 0-12 ATS in its last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game. 10* (327) San Diego St. Aztecs |
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09-26-15 | Ohio +10.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 73 h 16 m | Show |
The Bobcats won for us two weeks ago against Marshall and they are off to a 3-0 start both straight up and against the number after another win last week. They are once again a very solid team as they have 18 starters back on a team that has been riddled with injuries the last couple years but still have not had a losing season since 2008. They have the opportunity to contend once again in the MAC East and while conference play begins next week, they will be out for a quality win this week and we are getting an overabundance of points on top of it. Minnesota is a good team as it played TCU very tough in its opener but struggled to win against Colorado St. and really struggled last week against Kent St. at home as it defeated the Golden Flashes 10-7. The Gophers offense has been very inconsistent and this will not be an easy game to get it rolling. Ohio has eight starters back on a defense that improved from 2013 and should be much better this season which we are in fact witnessing. Minnesota has really struggled against non-conference teams the last couple years as it is 2-7 in its last nine non-conference games while being unable to come close to dominating the stats. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have covered five straight non-conference games. 10* (359) Ohio Bobcats |
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09-26-15 | UMass +29 v. Notre Dame | Top | 27-62 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 14 m | Show |
Massachusetts won for us last week as it dropped a tough two-point game against Temple to fall to 0-2 on the season. While winning this game is unlikely, the Minutemen could not be in a better spot this week. Massachusetts has had a rough start to its FBS career as it is 5-32 but showed drastic improvements last season. The Minutemen lost five games by a touchdown or less and they bring back 19 starters from last season and are the most experienced team in the nation. While Massachusetts will be amped up to be playing here, Notre Dame could probably care less about this game. Coming off a big upset win over Georgia Tech and with Clemson on deck, the injury riddled Fighting Irish want nothing more than to shorted this came and come away without any further injuries. It is no secret that Notre Dame is a huge public betting favorite which means linesmakers have to inflate their lines in games like these so it comes as no surprise that the Fighting Irish are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as favorites between 21.5 and 31 points. And talk about a letdown, they are 0-7 ATS when laying double-digits following an outright win as a dog. Massachusetts is on the opposite side of things as it gets bigger lines than it probably should and despite a 3-11 record since the start of last season, it is 9-5 against the number. 10* (365) Massachusetts Minutemen |
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09-26-15 | Navy -6.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 70 h 47 m | Show |
We are catching a lower than expected number here with Navy and I think it should be able to name the score. The Midshipmen are 2-0 and while a win over Colgate was far from impressive, a 24-point win over a very solid East Carolina team last was impressive. That was their first ever win as a member of the AAC after being an independent for 134 years so it was certainly a special victory. Don't expect a letdown here though as now they will be out for their first ever road conference win and quite honestly, the makeup of this team typically does not allow a letdown. They lead the nation in rushing with 393 ypg and while Connecticut has been decent against the run, they have yet to come close to facing a rushing offense like this. The Huskies snuck by Villanova of the FCS and hen snuck by a poor Army team by five points in each game. You can argue they played a solid game last week against Missouri in a 9-6 loss but the jury is still out on the Tigers which struggled in their first two games against weaker opposition than Connecticut. They key here is the Huskies offense as they are averaging just 16 ppg after averaging 21 ppg last season so they will not be able to keep pace with Navy. The Midshipmen are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after a two-game homestand while Connecticut is 5-17-1 ATS in its last 23 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (323) Navy Midshipmen |
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09-25-15 | Stanford v. Oregon State +15.5 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 45 m | Show |
We played against Stanford last week and we got burned as the Cardinal came out and defeated USC outright as a 10-point underdog but now the line shifts more than 25 points which is a massive move. While that was a great win, it spells letdown going forward and playing on the road in that spot makes it even tougher. Additionally, they have a game against Arizona on deck which makes it even tougher. It is hard to forget their only road game which came at Northwestern and how bad they were dominated. Playing on national TV on a Thursday night is not ideal coming off the victory over the Trojans. Oregon St. is 2-1 and while the wins were unimpressive over mediocre opposition, those games were important for this very experienced team. This is especially true for freshman quarterback Seth Collins who got his ears wet and looked pretty solid in doing so. A big factor here is that Gary Anderson is the coach that took over for Mike Riley and he is very solid and has been in many a big game so he knows how to get his team ready. While we expect Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan to play, he is listed as questionable and may not be close to 100 percent which would be a big blow after him playing so well last week. Here, we play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games, returning eight or more offensive starters going up against an opponent returning five or fewer defensive starters. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (308) Oregon St. Beavers |
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09-25-15 | Chicago White Sox +147 v. New York Yankees | Top | 5-2 | Win | 147 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
The Yankees took the opener of this series last night as they got to Chris Sale for three runs in the third inning which was just enough to pull out the 3-2 victory. They are now three games back in the American League East but are overpriced tonight. Chicago has lost three straight games and despite the lack of production, it is 6-2 over its last eight games after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. Chicago turns to Carlos Rodon who we backed in his last game and has been pitching great of late as he has put together seven straight quality outings, posting a 1.66 ERA in the process. Going back to early July, he has tossed six straight quality start on the road. C.C. Sabathia takes the hill tonight and he has been all over the place this season but to his credit, his September has been solid with a 1.04 ERA in three starts, the last two of which have been quality outings that resulted in Yankees wins. There is a big issue with that however is that he tossed 111 pitches in each of those last two games which are his highest pitch counts of the entire season. He is now working on four days rest making it worse. The White Sox fall into a great contrarian situation as well as we play against home teams after allowing four runs or less in five straight games going up against an opponent after scoring four runs or less in six straight games. This situation is 64-40 (61.5 percent) over the last five seasons while netting 38.5 units of profit. 10* (915) Chicago White Sox |
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09-24-15 | Washington Redskins v. NY Giants -3.5 | Top | 21-32 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
The Giants are coming off another tough loss, the second straight game they have blown a late lead and with it came some history they do not want to be associated with. The Giants are the first team to blow double digit fourth quarter leads in consecutive games to start a season. That distinction should have them fired up for this game as they look to avoid a 0-3 start. The good news is that the NFC East is a mess right now with the Eagles looking awful and the Cowboys without Tony Romo for at least eight weeks. Washington blew a lead in their season opener against the Dolphins but came back to defeat the Rams last week. That was more of a St. Louis loss as it was coming a huge home win in overtime against the Seahawks at home. This is the first road game for Washington and going back to 2013, it is 1-13 over its last 14 road games and there is not much to think that is going to change here. The running game needs to get moving for the Giants as they have put up 97 and 99 yards on the ground and going back, they are 20-8 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Meanwhile, the Redskins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Additionally, the Giants fall into a great situation as we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games coming off an upset win as a home underdog. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) New York Giants |
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09-24-15 | Cleveland Indians +120 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 6-3 | Win | 120 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The Twins remain in the hunt in the American League Wild Card as they have won three straight games, including the first two in this series, and are just a game behind the Astros for the second spot. The pitching has been the story during the winning streak as Minnesota has allowed just four runs in the three games after allowing a total of 32 runs in its previous five games, all losses. Cleveland's playoff hopes have taken a big hit and this has turned into a must win if any sort of miracle is to happen. The Indians lost consecutive games for just the second time this month and they have not lost three in a row since the start of August, going a perfect 5-0 since then following consecutive losses. Cody Anderson looks to make it six straight and he has been pitching good enough to do so. He has a 3.48 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 13 starts, eight of which have been quality outings. His road numbers are even better with a 2.58 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in six starts. He will be pitching with a chip on his shoulder after the Twins tagged him for six runs in 2.2 innings last month. Kyle Gibson counters for Minnesota and he is riding a two-game quality start streak but that is not necessarily a good thing as he has not thrown three straight quality games since early July. He has slowed down a ton as he has a 5.10 ERA in 12 starts after the break after posting a 2.85 ERA in 18 pre-All Star break starts. 10* (969) Cleveland Indians |
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09-24-15 | Cincinnati +10.5 v. Memphis | Top | 46-53 | Win | 100 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
This will be a very unpopular pick this week based on the results we have seen but that is what gets us the value. Cincinnati is off to a 2-1 start but has not looked good in doing so as the loss came to Temple, which albeit is having a solid season, and one win came against Miami Ohio by just four points. The Bearcats are 0-3 against the number as they were unable to cover against Alabama A&M as a 46-point favorite so that can be tossed out. The thing is that they have outgained all three opponents and despite losing to Temple, they outgained the Owls by 261 yards. Five turnovers were the difference there. Memphis is 3-0 as it survived a scare last week against Bowling Green winning 44-41 thanks to scoring the final 10 points of the game. Blowouts over Missouri St. and Kansas were far from impressive. Cincinnati quarterback Gunner Kiel suffered a concussion last week in the third quarter and was listed as questionable yesterday, then went to doubtful and has since gone back to questionable. The line has moved four points because of this and we made the play thinking he would not play and if he does, it only benefits us that much more. Memphis is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after scoring 42 or more points and the Bearcats will be out for payback after losing by 27 points at home last season. 10* (303) Cincinnati Bearcats |
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09-24-15 | Phoenix Mercury +5.5 v. Minnesota Lynx | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Tonight commences the third straight season and fourth in the last five that Minnesota and Phoenix have met in the Western Conference Finals with a trip to the WNBA Finals on the line. As many times as they have faced each other and as much as they know each other, it is surprising that four of the five meetings this season were decided by double digits, all won by the home team. We are bucking that here however as Phoenix comes in more rested and playing at a current higher level. The Mercury have won five of their last six games including a pair of blowout wins over Tulsa in the first round. Minnesota has been all over the place as it is just 6-7 over its last 13 games and while the Lynx are finally fully healthy now, they are not used to it and that can actually affect chemistry. Here, we play against favorites after allowing 80 points or more going up against an opponent after scoring 90 points or more. This situation is 33-13 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Minnesota is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a victory. 10* (653) Phoenix Mercury |
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09-23-15 | Seattle Mariners +155 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Seattle is closing the season well as it has won four of its last five games and overall, September has been great with a 13-6 record which makes tonight's line that much more enticing. The road has been very kind over this stretch as the Mariners have taken eight of nine games on the highway and the line for Wednesday is the biggest of the bunch. The Royals meanwhile have not been playing as good as they were earlier in the season as they have gone 5-12 over their last 17 games so they have been fortunate no other team was able to make a charge at them. Yordano Ventura is coming off his third straight non-quality start following a string of five straight quality outings so he has been leaking oil at the wrong time. He has a 5.62 ERA and 2.12 WHIP over the three games but has been fortunate with solid run support to not be 0-3. Roenis Elias has also gone three straight starts without a quality outing but he has been much better with a 3.38 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He has been strong on the road as seven of his nine road starts have been quality performances. The Mariners fall into one of the best net underdog situations as we play on American League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that are averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg going up against an opponent averaging 4.7 or fewer rpg. This situation is 265-272 (49.3 percent) over the last five seasons while netting a whopping 109.1 units. 10* (925) Seattle Mariners |
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09-23-15 | New York Yankees +162 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The final game of the season tonight between the Yankees and Blue Jays should be no different than last night. A sellout crowd in Toronto witnessed an epic game that had a playoff atmosphere and the New York win can carry some momentum over into tonight. The Yankees were in a must win spot and they pulled it off in extra inning to move to 2.5 games behind Toronto in the American League East. Ivan Nova looks to narrow the gap for the Yankees while also looking to bounce back from a shellacking in his last start which also happened to come against Toronto. He allowed six runs in just 1.2 innings which was the fourth time he has allowed four runs or more. The previous three resulted in quality starts in his next outing. Marcus Stroman counters for Toronto and he is making his third start of the season following a quicker than expected rehab from a torn ACL. He put up a quality outing last time out against the Red Sox and the fact the Yankees were his first opponent this year helps New York. Here we play against home favorites starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or higher over his last five starts. This situation is 77-66 (53.8 percent) over the last five seasons but the key here is 54.4 units won. 10* (919) New York Yankees |
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09-22-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Colorado Rockies +129 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The Pirates won the series opener last night to make it three straight wins to remain two games ahead of Chicago in the Wild Card race. Colorado has dropped two straight games and while it is just playing out the season, we are getting a big value number and one that is much higher than last night. We made a contrarian play on Christopher Rusin in his last start and it paid off with a huge underdog win against the Dodgers. We will back him again and while the number is not nearly as big, the change in venue is the reason. His numbers are better at home than on the road and while his recent numbers do not look appealing, it was one bad start against the Mets that is to blame and going back, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 11 of his last 14 starts (79 percent). J.A. Happ has been nothing short of spectacular since coming over from Seattle as he has posted a 1.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in eight starts. Where has this come from? He posted a 4.64 ERA in 20 starts with the Mariners and has not posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2010 when he made 13 starts with Houston and put up a 3.75 ERA. This successful run is heavily favored to go south. 10* (960) Colorado Rockies |
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09-22-15 | Washington Mystics v. New York Liberty UNDER 141 | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
The first two games of this playoff series have gone over the total but I expect a reversal of that for this series finale. They have gone over by a fairly large margin as well sl we should see public backing on another high scoring game but I believe those were flukes more than anything else. The Mystics and Liberty had four regular season meetings with three of those going under the total, all by significant amounts, and the only reason the fourth meeting went over the total was because of overtime. We have to remember these are two of the top three shooting defenses in the WNBA and the top two defenses in the league as far as points allowed. Both teams have solid situations favoring a low scoring game. First we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in August or September games. This situation is 63-25 (71.6 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Second we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 revenging a home loss against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. This situation is 42-16 (72.4 percent) the last five seasons. Additionally, New York is 20-5 to the under after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games while Washington is 15-4 to the under after allowing 80 points or more the last two seasons. 10* Under (621) Washington Mystics/(622) New York Liberty |
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09-21-15 | NY Jets v. Indianapolis Colts -7 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Week Two is what is called the week of overreactions in the NFL and this year is no different. Here we have two teams off different outcomes and because of that, we are getting exceptional line value. Thanks to the Colts loss and the Jets win last week, this spread dropped from -9.5 when it came out prior to the first games to -7 now. It could rise more by gametime so the earlier to bet it the better as it likely only has one way to go. The Colts offense was stymied by Buffalo as the Bill shut down Frank Gore and had a merciless pass rush but don't expect the same from the Jets. The pass rush is lacking and the secondary is banged up so Andrew Luck should have a big rebound game. And he has been the best in the game when it comes to bouncing back as the Colts are 13-1 ATS under his direction coming off a loss which includes them going a perfect 11-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. The Jets looked good against Cleveland last week but they were fortunate that the Brown lost their starting quarterback and even though they won by 21 points, they outgained the Browns by just 12 total yards. The Colts also have a great league-wide situation on their side as we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (290) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-21-15 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Boston Red Sox +108 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 108 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
While the Red Sox are far from big underdogs today, they look like the only really good underdog option on the limited slate. They come in riding a two-game winning streak, taking both of those in come-from-behind fashion at Toronto so they were very impressive victories. Tampa Bay took the series finale in Baltimore to pull off the split but putting together winning streaks has been a problem for the Rays. They are 1-5 over their last six games following a victory and have won consecutive games in September only once. Tampa Bay is the road favorite because of Chris Archer being on the hill but he has not been very consistent or reliable of late. Over his last seven starts, he has a 4.12 ERA with just three of those starts being quality outings. He has faced Boston three times this season, none of which have resulted in quality performances with his ERA being 4.32. Additionally, he has a 7.71 ERA in two career Fenway Park starts. Eduardo Rodriguez meanwhile has been pitching great as over his last five starts, he has posted a 1.72 ERA. He has been pretty solid at home with an ERA under 4.00 and Boston winning eight of his 11 home starts. 10* (916) Boston Red Sox |
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09-20-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles -5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -104 | 75 h 50 m | Show |
This is a typical example of overreaction to what transpired Week One as the Eagles lost their opener as a big consensus while Dallas took care of the Giants on a late touchdown drive. We played against the Eagles Monday night and got the win after a big Eagles rally came up short. They looked great in the second half as it seemed to take a little bit for the new players to get into a groove and I expect that to carry over into Sunday. Heading home only helps and being 0-1 will have them highly motivated to get into the win column. The Cowboys definitely caught a break with their victory as poor clock management by New York aided their cause. I certainly do not expect a letdown since it is another divisional game but the public consensus is backing Dallas in this one with a lot of that due to what it did last year as it rolled through the road schedule with a perfect 8-0 record. That included an 11-point win in Philadelphia and that helped the Eagles in missing the playoffs as a 7-2 start turned into a 3-4 finish. The Eagles fall into a great league-wide situation where we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that outscored opponents by four or more ppg last season, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Eagles have covered all six games under head coach Chip Kelly when coming off a road loss, winning those games by an average of 17 ppg. 10* (286) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-20-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +133 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Atlanta and Philadelphia are separated by just three games in the National League East and it will be up to the Phillies today to try and avoid the sweep. They have lost the first two games of this series by identical 2-1 scores so it shows how close these two teams have been and we are again seeing a value line. The Braves have won two straight games for the first time since August 7-8 and since then, they are a mere 1-7 following a victory so putting together winning streaks has been rare. Julio Teheran looks to be the best option to keep the streak alive as he has been very solid at home all season but he is paying the price for it. He has a 3.23 ERA at home where most of his starts have come under the lights and the daytime starts have negated his success as he has a 5.31 ERA in 13 starts with Atlanta going just 4-9. Aaron Nola counters for the Phillies and while he is coming off a poor outing, he has been a solid bounce back pitcher. He allowed four runs or more on three other occasions and followed those up with solid efforts next time out while posting a combined 3.71 ERA. He is 3-1 on the road with the Braves going 4-1 in his five road starts. 10* (951) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-20-15 | Atlanta Falcons v. NY Giants -2 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 25 m | Show |
Week Two is what is called the week of overreactions in the NFL and this year is no different. Here we have two teams off different outcomes and because of that, we are getting exceptional line value. The Giants came through for us Sunday night as they were able to stay within the number and while they blew the outright win, that actually helps us this week. Last season, they lost their opener at Detroit and then came home only to get blown out by Arizona but the situation is much different as they were right in the midst of a scheme chance and Eli Manning looked very uncomfortable. While he didn't have a great game against Dallas, it was good enough for them to win which they realistically should have. The Falcons opened up strong against Philadelphia and were able to hang on against the Eagles and secure the first victory for head coach Dan Quinn. Now the Falcons hit the road and while the mindset of this team is a lot different than last year, I still expect them to struggle outside the dome. The Giants have a simple yet effective situation on their side there we play against teams coming off a win as a home underdog. This situation is 80-42 ATS (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. That also carries over to Atlanta as the Falcons are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a win as a home underdog. Meanwhile, the Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (280) New York Giants |
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09-20-15 | San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6 | Top | 18-43 | Win | 100 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
San Francisco pulled off the upset on Monday night over Minnesota although it wasn't a huge upset as the 49ers were getting just 2.5 points at close. Still, not many expected them to win after a number of big offseason losses on both sides of the ball. Now the find themselves in a much tougher spot as they head to the east coast for an early game with another road game on deck against division rival Arizona. The Steelers lost their opener at New England and they could not have been in a more difficult spot playing in the national spotlight in Tom Brady's first game since his suspension was revoked. They fell behind 21-3 and to their credit came fighting back and overall, they ended up outgaining New England by 103 total yards albeit a lot of that came in garbage time. We can expect to see a huge effort in their first home game and the most pleasant surprise from Thursday was the play of running back DeAngelo Williams who rushed for 127 yards on 6.0 ypc and he will be in the spotlight one more game with Le'Veon Bell suspended for one more game. The 49ers were not tested too much against Minnesota but that will not be the case here with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown ready for another big game. Pittsburgh has been off since Thursday while san Francisco is playing on a short week and heading east, never a good spot. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (266) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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09-20-15 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +2.5 | Top | 40-32 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
The Bills won a big game for us last Sunday as they defeated the Colts at home and the situation does not get any easier here. Many called for a 0-2 start from Buffalo and in some cases 0-3 as it heads to Miami next week but I foresee the Bills being 2-0 before facing the Dolphins. A letdown is inevitable at times when coming off a big win like that last week but this game is even bigger so we won't see that here. This team is confident and they now know they have what it takes to chase down New England in the AFC East. The Patriots won on Thursday and while they have the luxury of extra rest and prep time, it is almost negated here since they are traveling and the Bills remaining at home. Tom Brady could not have played better and because of the way he approached that game and the outcome that occurred, the letdown factor actually goes to their side now. Tyrod Taylor shook off the nerves and played a great game with 195 yards passing and 41 yards rushing and he should have another big game here. New England allowed 464 total yards last week and while Buffalo doesn't have the same dynamic offense, success can be attained. As good as the victory was against Indianapolis last week, a loss here basically gives it right back and the Bills could be 1-2 after next week if not careful. Another big factor is head coach Rex Ryan as he has been one of the better coaches when gameplanning against the Patriots and under Brady, they have failed to cover their seven games after facing Pittsburgh. 10* (270) Buffalo Bills |
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09-20-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Chicago Bears +2.5 | Top | 48-23 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 23 m | Show |
While the Bears lost to Green bay last week, they played a lot better than many expected as they were right in it midway through the fourth quarter and actually outgained the Packers by 80 total yards. Chicago remains home for another tough contest before heading to Seattle and while the season is still early, this is already a very big game. The Bears have lost four straight home games going back to last season which is part of the reason they are catching points here. Arizona made the playoffs last season as a much improved team and the Cardinals opened their season with a big home win over New Orleans. They outgained the Saints by just 19 total yards as they held them to four field goals and that certainly says a lot about how tough the defense is. Of course, it is much different on the road. Offensively, Carson Palmer looked very comfortable coming back from his knee injury but the offense will be without Andre Ellington who was solid before he had to leave with a knee injury. The Bears did not record a sack last week but Palmer is not nearly as mobile so they should be able to amp up the pressure after forcing Rodgers out of the pocket numerous time. Head coach John Fox bring a new attitude and in his coaching career, he has covered 67 percent of his games following a home loss which tells a lot. Arizona has a pair of divisional games on deck so a lookahead could be inevitable. 10* (272) Chicago Bears |
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09-20-15 | New York Liberty +1 v. Washington Mystics | Top | 86-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
The best team in the WNBA is on the brink of elimination after losing Game One at home of this best of three series. New York now has to win on the road to keep its season going and the Liberty will find a way to do so. Washington used clutch free throw shooting to take the first game in double overtime although it was New York's missed free throws that was the ultimate difference. This is not a team that the Liberty has enjoyed facing this season as they have lost four of the five meetings but that is an angle that can be overplayed. New York finished 11-6 on the road, the only team to win double-digit games on the highway so they come in confident to continue their season. New York has a great situation on its side as we play on road underdogs that are revenging a close loss versus opponent by three points or less, off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1997. Additionally, New York is a perfect 10-0 ATS this season as a road underdog while going a perfect 6-0 ATS playing with double revenge. 10* (613) New York Liberty |
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09-19-15 | Ottawa Redblacks v. Saskatchewan Roughriders -2 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
When looking at the records of these two teams, they look reversed of what we thought heading into the season but it is what it is and we are reaping the rewards of the line. Saskatchewan started the season 0-9 before finally winning its first game against Winnipeg two weeks ago. The Roughriders gave it right back with a loss last week in the home-and-home series on Saturday however as they were outscored 22-0 to end the game to fall to 0-5 on the road. They are having a miserable season in the standings but as a team that is 1-10, it may seem surprising that they are actually outgaining opponents on average overall. Ottawa went 2-16 last season so the fact it has a winning record after 10 games is a big shocker. Part of the success is going 2-3 on the road which may not seem great but after a 0-9 highway record last season, it is pretty solid after all. But the RedBlacks won on the road last week and they have never won consecutive road games which puts them in a tough spot. The Roughriders announced on Tuesday that Kevin Glenn, who has been sidelined since suffering a torn pectoral muscle against Hamilton on July 26, will be back in the lineup and that is huge. The Roughriders fall into a great situation as we play on teams coming off a loss to a division rival as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (296) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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09-19-15 | Iowa State +8 v. Toledo | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 4 m | Show |
Toledo provided one of the biggest upsets in Week Two as it went to Fayetteville and defeated Arkansas 16-12 as a 22.5-point underdog. Everyone will remember that score but they do not know the full story as Toledo was outgained by 197 total yards while Arkansas doubled the Rockets in first downs 30-15. The problem was that the Razorbacks constantly stepped on their own feet as they made it inside the Toledo redzone in each of their last four drives but came away with just three points. The Rockets dodged a bullet and now they are paying the price for the outright win as his line is inflated because of it. The Rockets actually had a game in Week One as it hosted Stony Brook but it was postponed due to bad weather after one half of play. They led by only nine points at the break so that was a pretty unimpressive start. Iowa St. lost at home against rival Iowa as the Hawkeyes were playing with revenge from last year's loss. Coming off a big rivalry game can provide a letdown but usually only if our team won so I am not worried at all about any sort of letdown. Toledo is playing with revenge here following a seven-point loss last season but being favored by this much over a power conference team is just too much. The Cyclones have covered four straight against the MAC while the Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (167) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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09-19-15 | Stanford v. USC -10 | Top | 41-31 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 2 m | Show |
We won with Stanford last week as it bounced back from its upset loss at Northwestern with a blowout win over Central Florida, outgaining the Knights by 310 yards. While it was a dominating performance, it has to be noted that Central Florida is not a good team with just nine starters back and playing on the west coast after an embarrassing loss put it in a horrible spot. Now the spot becomes horrible for Stanford as it hits the road again in its Pac 12 opener against sixth ranked USC. The Trojans are 2-0 with ho-hum wins over Arkansas St. and Idaho so while they were not tested, we already know what this team is capable of. The sanctions have been lifted and the Trojans finally have depth again. We saw how bad Stanford got beat in the trenches against Northwestern and USC has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The loss of defensive tackle Harrison Phillips is a big setback for Stanford in this matchup as he is out for the season with a torn ACL. On the other side, Stanford is averaging just 3.2 ypg and that puts them in a negative situation explained later. Last season USC opened the season with a blowout win and had Stanford in its second game and won that on the road and while the last five meetings have all been close, this is the one that breaks that string. We play against teams that are averaging between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc going up against a team allowing between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc, in conference games. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (196) USC Trojans |
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09-19-15 | California v. Texas +7 | Top | 45-44 | Win | 100 | 80 h 31 m | Show |
California came through for us in a big way last week against San Diego St. as it spotted the Aztecs a 7-0 lead before scoring the final 35 points and easily covering. The Golden Bears were favored by 12.5 points which would have made them less of a favorite at San Diego St. than they are against Texas and that simply does not make sense. California is an up and coming team with high expectations and a Heisman Trophy caliber quarterback but I do not think they are ready to be laying points on the road quite yet. They have not been in this role since 2012 and this is not the time or place to be doing it. Texas has looked shaky to start the season as it was blown out by Notre Dame and then had a tougher than expected game against Rice last week. That game needs to be examined further however as while Texas only won by 14 points, it was up by 28 in the fourth quarter where the Owls scored their garbage touchdowns and outgained Texas 175-16. It is often when fourth quarter anomalies take place that can mess up what really happened. The Longhorns could use a big effort heading into conference play and this is the perfect opportunity to do so. The defense has not looked like the defense it is supposed to be and this will no doubt be a tough yet attainable challenge. California is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 450 or more yards last game. 10* (184) Texas Longhorns |
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09-19-15 | Texas Tech v. Arkansas -11.5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -106 | 79 h 13 m | Show |
Arkansas is coming off a baffling loss last week at home against Toledo so you have to feel for Texas Tech and the wrath that is about to be put upon them. The Razorbacks had chances to win last week but could not get the job done as they ended up inside the Toledo redzone on their final four drives but came away with only three points total. They outgained the Rockets by 197 total yards and that is most important to us in a follow up game as it shows who was the better team despite the loss and the defeat actually helps us going forward for motivational purposes. Arkansas is a sleeper pick by some in the SEC even with a brutal schedule as it brings back 15 starters. Texas Tech is off to a 2-0 start with wins over San Houston St. and UTEP. While the latter was a blowout, the Red Raiders were actually outgained by San Houston St. The Bearkats are one of the best FCS teams out there but if Texas Tech could not outgain them at home, what are they going to do against an SEC team on the road? Arkansas blasted the Red Raiders last season in Lubbock so there is no reason for it to be any different at home. Here, we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 31 or more ppg last season, in a non-conference game between two teams from major conferences. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (170) Arkansas Razorbacks |
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09-19-15 | Chicago White Sox +150 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 4-3 | Win | 150 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Cleveland took the opener of this series last night to move back to .500 on the season and move back to within three games of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Indians have had their share of troubles putting together any sort of winning streak however as they have dropped three straight games following a win. Chicago has now dropped two straight games and the defeat snapped a four-game winning streak on the highway. Despite the loss, the White Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record. Chicago turns to Carlos Rodon who has been pitching great of late as he has put together six straight quality outings, posting a 1.76 ERA in the process. He has faced the Indians three times this season and has tossed a gem each time out while putting up a 0.92 ERA. Cleveland counters with Carlos Carrasco who has been pitching well since the start of July but has two bad starts over the stretch and both have come against Chicago. This is a team he has not been able to solve as in 12 career starts, he has a 5.92 ERA and going back, the Indians are 3-13 in Carrasco's last 16 home starts against teams with a losing record. We also have a contrarian situation on our side as we play against American League teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is between 1.40 to 1.500 on the season. This situation is 93-61 (60.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (925) Chicago White Sox |
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09-19-15 | NC State -18 v. Old Dominion | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 79 h 53 m | Show |
This is a lot of points to be laying on the road but I like the situation and the matchup on top of that. NC State was one of the most improved teams in the country last season as it went from three wins in 2013 to eight wins in 2014. While that may signal a reversal the other way this season, I don't see it that way at all. The Wolfpack are coming off two wins over inferior competition but not much is changing here or next week for that matter when they face South Alabama so there is no chance of a lookahead. NC State snapped a 0-9 ATS skid as a road favorite by blasting USF last season and with 15 starters back, they know how to win on the road. Old Dominion surpassed expectations last year when it went 6-6 in its first year at the FBS level. The Monarchs are already off to a 2-0 start as it defeated Eastern Michigan despite getting outgained and then beat a weak Norfolk St. team last week. While there are 15 starters back, the big loss was at quarterback with Taylor Heinicke as his 3,476 yards and 30 touchdowns are gone. He was the 2012 Walter Payton Award winner for the best player in the FCS so replacing him will be a challenge especially trying to stay up with an offense like that of NC State. The Wolfpack will also get a boost with the return of last season's leading rusher Shadrach Thornton who missed the last two games while serving a suspension. 10* (129) NC State Wolfpack |
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09-19-15 | Chicago Sky v. Indiana Fever -3 | Top | 82-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
We played on Indiana on Thursday which resulted in a push and with its season on the line, we will be backing the Fever once again. As mentioned prior to Game One, the Sky have had Indiana's number since the end of last season as they defeated the Fever in the Eastern Conference Finals two games to one and then proceeded to sweep all four regular season games this year followed by the Game One win two nights ago. While the Fever did lose the two regular season meetings at home, they are still a solid 11-6 at home and have gone 22-12 ATS in their last 34 home games following a game on the road. Chicago hits the road a game under .500 on the highway and this will be just its third road game this entire month. The Sky put up 77 points in Game One which was actually below their season average of 82.9 ppg and going back, Chicago is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more straight games. Indiana also falls into a great revenge situation as we play on home conference favorites that are revenging a same season loss which came on the road. This situation is 170-106 ATS (61.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (610) Indiana Fever |
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09-19-15 | Auburn +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -128 | 76 h 31 m | Show |
Pretty much everyone saw, or at least heard, about Auburn nearly losing to Jacksonville St. as a 40-point favorite last Saturday so the masses will be lining up behind LSU this week as gamblers have very short memories. The Tigers also struggled to get past Louisville it their opener but we still feel this is a better team than they are being made out to be as it is a complete rarity to find a team that is undefeated and drop 12 spots in the polls. Clearly, Auburn was not focused on the Gamecocks but more so on LSU this week and it almost bit them. They have no where to go but up and that is what we are expecting here as this team is loaded. LSU burned us last week as it led Mississippi St. 21-6 only to let the Bulldogs come roaring back but they were fortunate that they missed a two-point conversion as well as a possible game winning field goal. LSU moved up only one spot in the polls since the preseason as it is currently No. 14 so while there is not much of a difference between these two teams, LSU's home field advantage is not worth seven points which is basically what this line is telling us. Since this line came out over the summer, it has gone up four points which is all public reactions. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 46-16 ATS (74.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (149) Auburn Tigers |
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09-19-15 | Temple v. UMass +10.5 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 2 m | Show |
As often stated, teams are not as good as they may have looked a week ago and vice versa. That can certainly be said for Temple which is off to a 2-0 start but it is extremely skewed. Looking at just the scores will show nothing more than possible flaws so digging deeper is imperative. In this case, the Owls defeated Penn St. and to their credit, they did dominate as a weak Nittany Lions offensive line allowed 10 sacks. They then upset Cincinnati on the road last week by eight points as a six-point dog. If only it were that simple. Temple was outgained by 261 total yards against the Bearcats but was able to force five turnovers which was the ultimate difference. Massachusetts has had a rough start to its FBS career as it is 5-31 but showed drastic improvements last season. The Minutemen lost five games by a touchdown or less and they bring back 19 starters from last season and are the most experienced team in the nation. They did fall short in their season opener at Colorado but are back home with this game being played at Gillette Stadium which is a big boost from their 17,000 on-campus stadium. This is the last shot for Massachusetts for a while as it leaves the MAC after this season and goes independent. The 2016 schedule is absolutely brutal so the time to win is now and while there have not been many wins, they are capable even though the linesmakers won't have you believe so. 10* (112) Massachusetts Minutemen |
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09-18-15 | Florida State -7.5 v. Boston College | Top | 14-0 | Win | 100 | 56 h 58 m | Show |
Typically we stay away from road favorites the majority of the time but this situation calls for playing the road chalk. Florida St. is off to a 2-0 start with expected victories over Texas St. and South Florida so while the opponents have not given it a test, they Seminoles are not taking a huge step up in class here. Many will remember the close call Florida St. had against Boston College at home last season where it took a last second field goal to win. That is ideal for us here. The Seminoles are not going to be taking the Eagles lightly and this is another revamped Boston College team. The Eagles are also 2-0 but have played no one as they have faced two teams from the FCS and actually struggled in one of those. They defeated Maine by just 18 points and last week they rolled over Howard, which is a step above a high school team. The east schedule has skewed the numbers as Boston College leads the country in total defense but we know that is a farce. The Eagles have only 10 returning starters and while the defense will be good, they are in for a test here. Offensively, Florida St. has just four starters back but as usual, it is loaded at the key positions. Boston College lost its leading passer and rusher in quarterback Tyler Murphy while also losing two of its top three receivers. This one could be real ugly. 10* (105) Florida St. Seminoles |
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09-17-15 | Denver Broncos +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 31-24 | Win | 104 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
Week Two of the NFL is known as the week of overreaction and we are seeing it right out of the gates this week. Denver defeated Baltimore in Week One 19-13 but for some reason, the public is very sour with the Broncos and namely Peyton Manning. In all fairness, he did not look very good as he was just 24-40 for 175 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. It is safe to say he is not happy about it and we can expect a bounceback effort here. Kansas City jumped out to a big lead over Houston and was able to hold on for the seven point road win. The Chiefs were outgained by the Texans however and while it can be argued the differential was caused by garbage time yardage, it isn't like college football where starters are subbed out so there is no excuse thus garbage time is more pronounced in the college game than in the pro game. And dealing with the public perception, because of the lackluster Broncos win and the dominating performance from Kansas City against the Texans, the line has moved from Even from when it opened prior to Sunday's games to -3 and that is the ultimate overreaction. Denver has never lost to Kansas City since Manning came on board as it is a perfect 6-0 and it has amazingly won 12 straight road divisional games going back to the days of Tim Tebow. Thus, coming in as the underdog is a huge advantage. 10* (101) Denver Broncos |
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09-17-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers +140 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
We lost with Milwaukee last night as it was unable to recover from a 5-0 deficit and went down 5-4. We will come back with them again tonight as they look to snap a five-game skid before hosting Cincinnati over the weekend. The Cardinals have won three in a row after a 2-8 run that saw their division lead drop to three games but it is now back to four coupled with the Pirates loss last night. John Lackey takes the hill for St. Louis and as great as he has been at home, he has been equally poor on the road. In 15 home starts, he has a 2.11 ERA with St. Louis going 11-4 in those games but in 14 road starts, he has a 3.99 ERA with the Cardinals winning just four of those 14 games. It gets even worse as going back, the Cardinals are 5-16 in his last 21 road starts against teams with a losing record. The Brewers turn to Jimmy Nelson and he has been the most consistent and reliable pitcher in the rotation as he leads the team in wins, ERA and strikeouts. Like Lackey, he struggles on the road but at home he has a 3.15 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 13 starts with Milwaukee winning each of his last four. 10* (906) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-17-15 | Indiana Fever +5 v. Chicago Sky | Top | 72-77 | Push | 0 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
We are going against the grain in this opening game between Indiana and Chicago in the best-of-three series. The Sky have has Indiana's number since the end of last season as they defeated the Fever in the Eastern Conference Finals 2-1 and then proceeded to sweep all four regular season games this year. While Chicago was the highest scoring team in the WNBA this season, it really poured it on the Fever as they averaged 95.5 ppg in those four games and they were able to cover all four games. Indiana closed the season with a pair of wins which enabled it to avoid top seed New York on the first round but considering the Fever actually had better success against the Liberty, this does not seem like the ideal matchup. But because of the regular season history, Indiana is catching a great number here come playoff time where regular season results can be tossed away. Indiana is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 road games against teams with a winning record while going 14-5 ATS in its last 19 road games revenging a loss. Chicago is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after allowing 80 or more points and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 75 or more points in three or more straight games. 10* (601) Indiana Fever |
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09-17-15 | Clemson v. Louisville +7 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
Overreacting to the first couple weeks of the season is a common mistake for bettors and of course being the contrarian type, we love the fact that the lines have to be adjusted because of it. Louisville is off to a 0-2 start including a home loss last week to Houston as a 13.5-point favorite. The Cardinals lost their opener in Auburn by seven points which looked good at the time but based on the Tigers near loss against FCS Jacksonville St., we aren't sure what to believe. Still, Louisville is better than its 0-2 record and we will see a focused bunch that knows a 0-3 start could spell disaster for the rest of the season. Clemson is coming off a couple blowout wins over some mediocre opposition and now comes its first real test. Going back to last season, the Tigers have won five straight games by double-digits but none of those have been true road games and this is not an ideal spot as the Tigers went 0-3 ATS last season as road chalk. The offensive line has just one starter back from last season while only three starters are back on a defense that led the nation last season in total defense. Additionally, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins. This situation is 48-15 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (104) Louisville Cardinals |
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09-16-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers +153 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
St. Louis has won two straight games after a 1-6 slide but it remains only three games ahead of the Pirates in the National League Central. Milwaukee meanwhile dropped its fourth consecutive game after losing three games in Pittsburgh over the weekend to end that series. Despite the loss last night, the Brewers are 4-1 in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. Wily Peralta gets the ball for the Brewers and while his numbers overall are pretty average, four bad starts can be to blame. He has allowed three runs or less in 13 of his 18 starts and in 10 home starts, seven have been quality outings. Milwaukee has won five of his last six starts. The Cardinals counter with Jaime Garcia who is coming off a horrible effort at Cincinnati as he allowed six runs in 4.1 innings in an 11-0 loss. While his overall numbers are good on the road, St. Louis is just 4-4 in his eight road starts and in his career, the Cardinals are eight games under .500 in his starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-15-15 | Colorado Rockies +235 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 235 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Colorado got to Clayton Kershaw for a run in the first inning last night but that was all it was able to muster as the Dodgers took the series opener and cut their magic number to 12 games in the National League West. We are dealing with a more manageable matchup tonight but are still getting a great underdog price in this contrarian situation. The Rockies have dropped all nine of Chris Rusin's road starts this season which makes this the ultimate contrarian play from the split side. While his recent numbers do not look appealing, it was one bad start against the Mets that is to blame and going back, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his last 14 starts. Brett Anderson counters for the Dodgers and while he has allowed three runs or less in five straight starts, his overall numbers are deceiving. He has a 3.36 ERA overall but that is backed up by a 1.31 WHIP which is far from solid and his numbers are surprisingly worse at home where his ERA is a dismal 7.31 over his last three starts. The Rockies also fall into a great contrarian situation where we play against home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or higher over his last five starts. This situation is 76-64 (54.3 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage may seem low, it has yielded 54.6 units over that stretch. 10* (911) Colorado Rockies |
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09-14-15 | Minnesota Vikings v. San Francisco 49ers +2 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
The 49ers are the second of two home underdogs tonight and while this is another unpopular pick, the value is there. Linesmakers have to play a lot of guessing games in the first week of the season for setting their numbers and as a result, they can be way off base as we saw that on Sunday with the chalk teams going 9-4 against the number which makes the favorites tonight very attractive to the betting public. The return of Adrian Peterson coupled with Teddy Bridgewater in his second season makes the Vikings a trendy option for the playoffs after finishing 7-9 a season ago. Bridgewater was decent as a rookie as he ranked 11th in the NFL with a 64.4 completion percentage but he was 22nd with an 85.2 passer rating and while Peterson will make him better, I'm not sold on him just yet. The 49ers lost Patrick Willis, Anthony Davis, Chris Borland and Justin Smith to retirement and were forced to release Aldon Smith so the defense is the major concern but this is definitely a favorable matchup to start the season with. On the other side, Colin Kaepernick is coming off his worst season as the 49ers quarterback but with low expectations, this is when he can shine. His favorite target Anquan Boldin and newly acquired Torrey Smith provide a great duel threat and the running back by committee is not necessarily a bad thing. New head coach Jim Tomsula replaces Jim Harbaugh and that is a factor that can be in our favor here because of the unknown aspect of it and not being able to prepare for it as usual. 10* (492) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons +3 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Going into Thursday, there were eight home underdogs on the Week One NFL card and that eventually jumped to nine with the Chiefs closing as favorites. The home dogs went just 2-5 yesterday so the public cleaned up pretty good but we were fortunate to be on both of those winners with the Bills and Rams winning outright. The final two home underdogs for the week both go tonight and we will be backing the Falcons at home after a very disappointing 2014 season that led to the dismissal of head coach Mike Smith. The Georgia Dome was a great edge for the Falcons up until the last two years as after going no worse than 6-2 in the first five years at home with quarterback Matt Ryan (33-7 overall), Atlanta has gone just 3-5 at home each of the last two years. The Eagles are one of the public picks to jump over the Seahawks or Packers and win the NFC but even though the team looks stacked, there are some early season concerns with so many new faces on the team and that affects early team chemistry especially on offense. And that is where this game will be decided as the Eagles surrendered 4,238 passing yards last season, which was the second-highest total in the NFL, behind only Atlanta with 4,478 yards allowed. The hiring of Dan Quinn from Seattle should improve the Falcons defense and while it won't take place overnight, we will see it tonight. As we know, past results cannot predict future outcomes but the fact that the Falcons are 7-0 straight up and against the number in home openers under Matt Ryan cannot be overlooked. 10* (490) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-14-15 | Miami Marlins +171 v. New York Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Miami heads out on the road following a solid 6-3 homestand. The highway has not been kind to the Marlins but they have won seven of their last 10. The Mets are coming off yet another come-from-behind victory on Sunday as they remain red hot. They swept three games from the second-place Nationals before sweeping four in Atlanta and their American League East lead is now at 9.5 games. They come in as big favorites because of this and while this price should be there for any other Mets starter, and even higher for Matt Harvey who is being skipped, it is too big for spot starter Logan Verrett. He was called up to take the place of Harvey who is being rested for the majority of the remainder of the regular season and while his first start was a solid one last month, the price is simply too big here. Miami counters with Justin Nicolino who is coming off a poor start but we can consider that just a small speed bump as he tossed four straight quality outings prior to that. He has been the underdog in five of eight starts with this being the second largest price and the biggest coming against the Pirates and Gerrit Cole. 10* (953) Miami Marlins |
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09-14-15 | Kansas City Royals +132 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
The Royals magic number is 11 even though they have been playing pretty poorly of late. Johnny Cueto is coming off another dud and while winning the division is extremely likely, things have not been going well. Kansas City is 2-7 over its last nine games but the situation looks good tonight to get back on track and the price is right as well. The Indians took two of three over Detroit but they are still four games under .500 at home and are once again overpriced with Carlos Carrasco on the hill. He has been a much better road pitcher where his ERA is 2.73 in 14 starts compared to 5.00 at home in 12 starts. This has been the case fore a while as the Indians are 8-20 in Carrasco's last 28 home starts. Kansas City turns to Edinson Volquez who bounced back from a poor outing with a quality start against the Twins on Tuesday. The Royals have won 21 of his 29 starts and going back to last season, the Royals have won 14 of his 17 starts after the All Star break against teams with a losing record. In his lone start in Cleveland this season, he tossed a quality game in a 6-3 Royals win. 10* (965) Kansas City Royals |
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09-13-15 | San Antonio Stars +7.5 v. Seattle Storm | Top | 59-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
While San Antonio and Seattle will both their season after today as neither will be in the playoffs, there is motivation for one side. San Antonio will be looking to end its 10-game losing streak but more importantly, will be out for a road victory. The Stars are 0-16 and a loss would make them just the second team in league history to go winless on the road but a loss would give them the worst road record in league history at 0-17 as Washington went 0-15 in 1998. An outright win is not a concern for us obviously as we look to stay within the inflated number. The Stars lost both game here last month but now they are getting more points than those first two games combined. This is also the final game in the storied career of Sophia Young-Malcolm who is retiring as the Stars all-time leading scorer. Seattle snapped a three-game skid with a win over Minnesota on Thursday but the Lynx were resting starters. Here ,we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss against a division rival. This situation is 47-22 ATS (68.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (659) San Antonio Stars |
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09-13-15 | NY Giants +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 82 h 32 m | Show |
The Giants and Cowboys game is one of only three divisional games the entire weekend and when we think of divisional games, we think of hard fought battles when the teams are not that far off from each other (i.e. Green/Bay/Chicago earlier in the day). That is what makes this line very surprising. The Cowboys are expected to again contend for the NFC Easy title, which is said just about every year, while Giants are predicted to finish third in most previews. Preseason win totals have the Cowboys and Eagles at 9.5 and the Giants at 8 which is not a significant difference so there is not reason to think this line should be what it is. This is a historic rivalry and going back to the 2011 season, this game has never had a spread of more than -4.5 for either side so the fact that it hit a touchdown in some spots is a head scratcher. New York hopes to get off to a better start this year after starting 0-2 last season with a lot that being on Eli Manning's shoulders but he was learning a new system and it obviously took time. Many are predicting a big year from him which would not be surprising. The Cowboys will be dynamic on offense but the defense is not at full strength with Rolando McClain and Orlando Scandrick both out. Here's the deal. Linesmakers have to base their numbers on portions of last year and looking back, Dallas is not as good as its 12-4 record and the Giants are not as bad as their 6-10 record and that is proven with the aforementioned preseason win totals coming into the season. 10* (487) New York Giants |
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09-13-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Oakland Raiders +3.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -123 | 77 h 27 m | Show |
Here is what we can call another ugly home underdog, one of eight such teams on the Week One slate. Besides Jacksonville, this is the second ugliest based on power rankings but unlike the Jaguars, the Raiders have a lot of potential upside. While we aren't talking Super Bowl, surpassing their three wins from last season is a strong possibility. The key here is Jack Del Rio who brings in a winning attitude and a winning pedigree, something that Bill Callahan, Norv Turner, Art Shell, Lane Kiffin, Tom Cable, Hue Jackson, Dennis Allen and Tony Sparano failed to accomplish. Quarterback Derek Carr because just the seventh rookie to throw for 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns and he should be a lot better this season as the Raiders drafted star Alabama receiver Amari Cooper and brought in Michael Crabtree from San Francisco to give him some much-needed weapons. Oakland has a better defense now as well and linebacker Khalil Mack is the real deal. The Bengals failed to win a playoff game yet again and while they come in as a candidate to win the AFC North, winning on the road has to improve. Cincinnati is 21-2-1 at home the last three years but just 11-13 on the highway over the same stretch. The Raiders have finished 3-5 at home each of the last three years but last year could provide some momentum coming into 2015 as after losing their first five home games, they won their last three, all against teams that finished .500 or better. The public is all over the Bengals as a hefty consensus but the line is staying put which favors our side by thinking the contrarian way. 10* (484) Oakland Raiders |
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09-13-15 | New Orleans Saints v. Arizona Cardinals -1 | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 8 m | Show |
The NFC South was an abomination last season as every other division in the NFL possessed at least two teams with winning records while Carolina came out of the South to win it with a 7-8-1 mark. The Saints finished with a 7-9 record, the second time in three years they have had a losing mark and as dominant as many think they still are, they have not won the division since 2011. New Orleans was a surprise 4-4 on the road last year and by that I mean surprisingly good as they rarely have .500 or above seasons on the highway. Arizona was a pleasant surprise last season as it made the playoffs despite losing the services of Carson Palmer for 10 games. He is back to full health including his shoulder and he says his arm is stronger than ever. New Orleans parted ways with many key contributors including Jimmy Graham, Pierre Thomas and leading receiver Kenny Stills so it may take time for the new roster players to find their way. The public still loves the Saints, home or away, and while this line could go lower by gametime because of late public money coming in, we are already seeing reverse line movement. The Cardinals are the early consensus, which consists of not as much public action as you will see come Sunday, but one popular book has actually dropped the line which presents some intriguing reverse line movement. Arizona has a sneaky good home field advantage and Bruce Arians meanwhile has gone a solid 17-5 ATS in his 22 games at home as a head coach. The home field again remains strong in Arizona. 10* (478) Arizona Cardinals |
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09-13-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Buffalo Bills +2.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
A record eight home underdogs are on the Week One NFL card and that just shows how much public perception can affect opening week numbers. Linesmakers have a tough enough time setting lines but coming in with no data or stats to work with, these liners open at what they think the public will back and then are adjusted accordingly. To no surprise, the Colts are road favorites here as they are the second favorite behind New England to win the AFC Championship. As of Thursday, the Colts are the fourth biggest consensus bet with the other three above them being road chalk as well which only cements how much the public loves laying numbers on road teams. Buffalo went 9-7 last season which was a three-game improvement from 2013, 2012 and 2011 which were all six-win seasons. I think there is room for more improvement as the defense remains a strength, the offense has more playmakers and a dynamic quarterback has stepped up. Tyrod Taylor had an awesome preseason and if he can carry even some of that into the regular season, the Bills could make a serious charge at the AFC East title. This is no easy task but Buffalo has thrived in these spots in front of the home crowd, going 6-1 ATS in seven games as a home underdog the last two seasons and now the team is even better. The fans know it and it will be raucous. Indianapolis won 13 games last season before losing to New England in the AFC Championship and that puts the Colts into an awesome contrarian situation that we ride to the bank on Sunday. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills |
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09-13-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. St Louis Rams +4 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
St. Louis falls into the same ideology of the common theme on opening week in the NFL and that is going against the public consensus as the main basis due to the lack and data, stats or results. While we don't have any of that info, neither do the linesmakers when trying to set these lines so even though we go in relatively blind, imagine how they feel when there are millions on the line. The Seahawks were a yard away from a second straight Super Bowl title and they come in as the favorites to win it all once again at +500. Seattle is another big public consensus play on Sunday but take this team out of Seattle and it becomes beatable even it if may be playing with a chip on its shoulder. Low scoring games certainly helps the underdog and this has the potential to be a very low scoring game as it will feature two of the best defensive lines in football going up against a pair of offensive lines that have serious question marks entering the season. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll confirmed that three-time Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor will in fact miss Sunday's game and that is huge for the Rams as Nick Foles will have to find a rhythm with his receivers and get it done through the air. While Seattle has dominated this series at home the last three years, St. Louis has won two of the three meetings here while covering the third matchup as well. Another outright win if far from out of the question but in this case we are getting a line almost everywhere that is above the key number of three. 10* (476) St. Louis Rams |
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09-12-15 | Central Florida v. Stanford -19 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 78 h 55 m | Show |
Stanford got manhandled pretty good last week at Northwestern as it was outgained by 90 total yards and scored just six points. The Cardinal have been the team over the past few years that wins the battle of the trenches but that was far from the case against the Wildcats as they were outgained on the ground 225-85 but I am not concerned about that at all. Northwestern ran the ball twice as much (54-27) and the ypc differential was off by just one yard. The fact that the Cardinal kicked off at 9:00 AM their time didn't help matters. If anything, Stanford comes home to take their frustrations out on an inferior team and that is what we have here. UCF is coming off an embarrassing loss as well as it fell to Florida International by a point but making it worse was that it was at home. Now the Knights have to fly across the country to face an upset Stanford team. They only have nine starters back and while they are expected to contend in the weak AAC, facing a tough PAC 10 team is no easy task. The Cardinal has been a great bounceback team under head coach David Shaw as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an upset loss as a favorite while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games after gaining fewer than 225 total yards. 10* (400) Stanford Cardinal |
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09-12-15 | LSU -4.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 21-19 | Loss | -104 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
Mississippi St. opened 2015 with a victory over Southern Mississippi by 18 points but the game was a lot closer than that as the Bulldogs won the yardage battle by just 29 total yards as one of their scores was set up by a blocked punt and they also had a kickoff return for a touchdown. A win is a win of course but it is skewed which could be playing with this line. Mississippi St. contended last year in the SEC West but that seems unlikely this season considering they are bringing back just seven starters. LSU should have a game and a win under its belt but its game with McNeese St. was postponed last week after just 11 plays due to inclement weather. That could be a good thing here however as there was no film for Mississippi St. to look at to prepare for this one. The Tigers have 15 starters back, the most since 2005, including nine on offense that regressed slightly from its 2013 numbers so the unit should be a lot stronger this season. This is not the time of year the Bulldogs want to face an experienced LSU team as they schedulemakers did them no favors. The Tigers have not forgotten last year's upset at home to Mississippi St. so revenge comes into play. LSU is 9-2 ATS under head coach Les Miles as a road favorite of a touchdown or less. 10* (323) LSU Tigers |
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09-12-15 | South Alabama v. Nebraska -27 | Top | 9-48 | Win | 100 | 76 h 38 m | Show |
We played against Nebraska last week and while the cover was a done deal, the way it lost outright was shocking and it spoiled the coaching debut of Mike Riley. Teams can either let that bother them the following week or use it as motivation and we should see the latter here. The Huskers take a big step down in class this week and South Alabama certainly catches them at the wrong time. The Jaguars won their season opener against Gardner Webb from the FCS and it was a pretty unimpressive win. They won by 10 and while they won the yardage battle by 99 yards, their four touchdowns came on plays of 49, 50, 56 and 92 yards and that is not going to happen against Nebraska. South Alabama had a very solid season in 2014 as it went to its first ever bowl game but after getting 15 starters back last year, they have just five starters back this season and going into a hornets nest in the first road game will be a challenge for the new guys. The Jaguars do not have the talent or depth to keep up as I expect Nebraska to score at will behind Tommy Armstrong Jr. who had a very solid game last week. Backing home teams coming off a home loss can be a difficult wager at times but not when the disparity is like this. 10* (390) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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09-12-15 | Oregon v. Michigan State -3.5 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 29 m | Show |
This is the first matchup of the season between two top ten teams and it has the makings of a great one. I do not think it is going to be close as some may think however as Michigan St. has the potential to move up the rankings even more with a quality win. We played against the Spartans last week and they were able to win on the road at Western Michigan but failed to cover the number. It was a possible lookahead to this one as the Spartans will be out for revenge following last year's 19-point loss in Eugene. They were only outgained by 25 total yards and actually led late in the third quarter before getting outscored to end the game. Oregon cruised over Eastern Washington last week but came away with a lot of questions, especially on defense. The Ducks allowed 42 points and 549 yards at home against an FCS team and while the Eagles are no slouch, Michigan St. is a different beast altogether. Oregon has just six starters back on each side of the ball and while talented, I think the Ducks are overrated where they are ranked and that certainly skews the public perception. This is a team that could struggle early in the season and they are fortunate that most of the tough games don't come until late in the season. That is with the exception of this one. 10* (392) Michigan St. Spartans |
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09-12-15 | Washington Nationals +150 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
When Washington was swept at home against the Mets to start the week, its season was pretty much wrapped up and a loss last night put the Nationals 8.5 games out in the National League East. We are backing them tonight however as we are catching an underdog price they haven't seen in a month when facing Clayton Kershaw. Washington is 4-0 in its last four games after scoring two runs or less last time out. Miami has won three straight games and is a big favorite because of who it has on the mound but it is certainly not the ideal situation. Jose Fernandez has never lost at home as he is a perfect 15-0 and we are bucking that trend Saturday. He is making his first start since suffering a strained bicep so he comes in with some rust and far from 100 percent. Tanner Roark is making his second start since coming into the rotation after getting called up to take the spot of Stephen Strasburg and will remain for at least another. His first start wasn't bad as he was limited to just 69 pitches and is fresh following an eight-day rest. While Washington has been solid of late after coming off a poor offensive performance, the Nationals are 8-0 in his last eight starts after scoring two runs or less. 10* (957) Washington Nationals |
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09-12-15 | Marshall v. Ohio +3.5 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 74 h 26 m | Show |
Losing on Purdue was a kick in the teeth last week as Marshall was outgained by the Boilermakers by 57 total yards but it used two interception returns for touchdowns to pull off the frontdoor cover. We are going against the Thundering Herd as they come in favored for the simple reason that they beat a team from the Big Ten even though they were outplayed. Ohio won its season opener at Idaho and while it wasn't overly dominating, winning the first game of the season on the road is always big. The Bobcats have 18 starters back on a team that has been riddled with injuries the last couple years but still have not had a losing season since 2008. They have the opportunity to contend once again in the MAC East and the home opener will be energetic for more than one reason. Ohio will be out for some payback as it lost in Huntington by 30 points as the defense was gashed for 705 yards by the Marshall offense. As mentioned last week, the Thundering Herd are rebuilding and the offense put up only 397 yards at home last week and now they hit the road to face the best defense in the MAC behind Northern Illinois on paper at least early in the season. They are projected to have the best linebacking corps and second best secondary and will hold their own here. 10* (330) Ohio Bobcats |
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09-12-15 | Western Michigan v. Georgia Southern +5 | Top | 17-43 | Win | 100 | 73 h 28 m | Show |
We are getting great line value here based on what the public saw last week. Western Michigan played Michigan St. pretty tough, losing by just 13 points and getting outgained by just 69 total yards. The Broncos are expected to contend in the MAC East but they are a team to fade in situations like this. Georgia Southern meanwhile got hammered by West Virginia 44-0 as it was outgained by 320 total yards and because of that, the Eagles come in as the home underdog. This is the typical spot where the public goes against these teams but Georgia Southern is far from as bad as it may have looked last week. It is going to contend in the Sun Belt Conference after going 8-0 last season but it was unable to go to a bowl game as it was ineligible so there is plenty of motivation to get the wins it needs to get and that includes this one. The Eagles have 13 starters back and is tough to prepare for because of the option offense behind the starting quarterback and top four rushers all back. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (310) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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09-12-15 | San Diego State v. California -13.5 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 72 h 29 m | Show |
This number has jumped considerably since it opened but that is not going to deter us as California is back from the dead. After one victory in 2013, the Golden Bears had five wins last season and have 17 starters back this season, the most in the entire PAC 12. They opened this season with a bludgeoning of Grambling 73-14 as the offense put up 656 total yards, the sixth highest total from last week. Obviously the opposing defense will be tougher this week but I'm not quite sold on the Aztecs. They finished 22nd in total defense last season but the schedule they played was not a tough one at all and this will be the toughest offense they have seen. San Diego St. managed only 305 total yards on offense last week against San Diego from the FCS as the quarterback play from Max Smith was horrid. On the flip side, the Golden Bears possess the possible top rated quarterback in the upcoming draft in Jared Goff should he leave after his junior year. Here, we play on home teams that averaged 450 or more total ypg with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 92-49 ATS (65.2 percent) over the last five seasons. California has not been great in the role of home favorites the last few years but this is the best California team over this stretch. 10* (358) California Golden Bears |
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09-12-15 | Minnesota v. Colorado State +6.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 56 m | Show |
You have to commend head coach Jerry Kill and what he has done at Minnesota since coming over in 2011. The Gophers have put up 8-5 records the last two seasons while going to a bowl game the last three seasons even though they lost all of those. Minnesota opened the season with TCU last week and stayed relatively competitive as a late touchdown may have skewed the final score some. The Gophers were outgained by 108 total yards which is certainly respectable but they comer in here favored because of the narrow six-point loss and the fact that Colorado St. has to replace not only a head coach but also an All American quarterback as well as some other key players. But they have 15 starters back and showed they can be plenty explosive on offense still as they hung 65 points on Savannah St. behind a strong performance from new starting quarterback Nick Stevens. Sure playing an FCS team will give you numbers like that but that was an important game as teams with new starting quarterbacks needs those to gain confidence and not be thrown into the fire right away. New head coach Mike Bobo was the Georgia offensive coordinator the last eight years so he knows what he is doing. Plain and simple, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (344) Colorado St. Rams |
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09-11-15 | Minnesota Twins +104 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 6-2 | Win | 104 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Minnesota is the unlikeliest of Wild Card contenders as it is 10th to last in all of baseball in ERA and 6th to last in MLB in hitting. The Twins on-base percentage is tied for the worst in the bigs yet here they are just a game behind Texas for the second Wild Card spot following a series win in Kansas City. Chicago lost two of three against the Indians and this is a tough spot for them to be favored in even though it is ever so slight. Ervin Santana had an atrocious start to August but his last two starts have been outstanding as he has allowed just one run over 15 innings while posting a 21:2 K:BB ratio. And both of those came against American League West leading Houston. Chicago has won just one of its last seven home games against right-handed starters. The White Sox counter with Erik Johnson who made his first start since April of 2014 and while it ended up as a quality outing, it was far from efficient as he allowed three runs over six innings with all of those runs being solo homeruns. The Twins have won eight of their last 10 games against right-handed starting pitching. 10* (925) Minnesota Twins |
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09-11-15 | Indiana Fever +1.5 v. Atlanta Dream | Top | 75-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
The WNBA playoffs begin next week and with five games tonight and five games Sunday, it is surprising that nearly everything is locked up with the exception of two seeding spots in the Eastern Conference. The fate of Washington and Indiana could be decided tonight and it is up to the Fever as they do control their own destiny. Indiana has a one-game lead over Washington for the third spot in the Eastern Conference and the chance to face Chicago in the opening round of the playoffs instead of league-best New York. That is pretty good incentive to get the job done tonight and hope the Mystics lose against New York to clinch the third spot. The Fever face New York Sunday in the regular season finale which puts greater emphasis on tonight. Atlanta is out of the playoff picture yet continues to play hard although last game they got the fortunes of Los Angeles pulling a late move to rest starters and the Dream blew out the Sparks by 30 points. The fact they have been playing well is factoring into this line as Atlanta has covered seven straight games while going back it has covered eight straight games at home which puts us in a solid contrarian situation with a team that has much more on the line. 10* (601) Indiana Fever |
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09-11-15 | Hamilton Tiger-Cats v. Toronto Argonauts +3.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Hamilton and Toronto square off for the second time in four days and it will be up to the Argonauts to get some payback after getting blown out for the second time this season against the Tiger-Cats. Despite that, Toronto is still only a game out of first place in the East Division and playing at home this time around certainly helps as it is a perfect 3-0 in home games and 2-0 in true home games from Rogers Centre. While this is considered a rivalry game, there is a lot of motivation for the Argonauts to get it back to that level. "Everyone wants to talk about this being a rivalry game but we've got to make it a rivalry game," Toronto quarterback Trevor Harris said. "It's not really a rivalry if you get beat by 30 points." That says it all right there. Five of Hamilton's last six games have all been at home and then it heads back for three more consecutive home tilts so it has been a very convenient stretch. Hamilton was favored by 7.5 points in the game on Monday at home and now it is favored by just four points less despite the change in venue and that is not a typical line swing so Toronto is getting the value. The Argonauts also fall into a simple yet effective situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a road loss, in September games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (454) Toronto Argonauts |
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09-10-15 | New York Mets v. Atlanta Braves +150 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
By virtue of their three-game sweep in Washington against the Nationals, it is now only a matter of time before the Mets capture their first American League East crown since 2006. The magic number is 17 and tonight presents great opportunity to go against New York after three come from behind victories. The Braves took two of three against the Phillies quelling any reports that the team has quit. Atlanta is still a game over .500 at home and going back, the Braves are 78-37 in their last 115 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Shelby Miller takes the hill for Atlanta and he is coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed six earned runs in Washington. He has allowed four runs or more only five other times and followed those up with quality outings all five times, posting a 1.35 ERA in those five follow up starts. Bartolo Colon has been unreal of late as he has not allowed a run in three straight starts culminating in a nine-hit shutout at Miami last time out. This is now the perfect time to go against him as he is below average on the road with a 4.62 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 14 starts. 10* (956) Atlanta Braves |
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09-10-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots -6.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 78 h 11 m | Show |
Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued two years ago when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. Last year, Seattle easily defeated Green Bay and now New England opens the season at home and this is a good spot for the defending champs to open the season with a victory. The story here obviously in the Tom Brady issue and when he was suspended, the line dropped from -7 to -2.5 but when he was reinstated, it went back up to -7. So now it is Pittsburgh that is on the short end of a suspension issue as Le'Veon Bell is out for the first two games and we know what he is capable of and how much he is missed, looking at the Baltimore playoff game as a prime example. Brady, who addressed reporters Sunday, admitted Thursday would be entirely about beating the Steelers and not about revisiting last season and the banner getting raised so focus will not be an issue. New England is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 10* (462) New England Patriots |
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09-10-15 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky +1 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
This is a big game for Western Kentucky. While the win over Vanderbilt was big, the Hilltoppers need to prove it was no fluke and show they have the ability to keep momentum going similar to the end of last season. It was an ugly win as they were outgained by 147 total yards but the defense came through when needed while the offense could get nothing going against an underrated Commodores defense. Western Kentucky is very solid on offense despite last week as it has seven starters back including quarterback, two top receivers and two top running backs on an offense that averaged 44.4 ppg. Louisiana Tech blew away Southern in a glorified scrimmage last week behind the strong play of Florida transfer quarterback Jeff Driskel. He should have more success than he did at Florida but when he was bad, he was really bad. The defense should be the strength for the Bulldogs again but they will have their hands full here on the road after trouncing the Hilltoppers 59-10 last season and holding the powerful offense to 297 total yards. Revenge time. Here, we play on home teams that averaged 450 or more total ypg with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 92-49 ATS (65.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (302) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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09-09-15 | Colorado Rockies +154 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
The Padres and Rockies have split the first two games of this series with San Diego snapping a four-game skid with the victory last night. They are favored tonight by a big moneyline, bigger than it should be based on the numbers. James Shields gets the ball for the Padres and he has been all over the place of late and San Diego simply is not winning, losing 13 of his last 17 starts after going 9-3 in his first 12. The Rockies have dropped all eight of Chris Rusin's road starts this season which makes this the ultimate contrarian play from the split side. While his recent numbers do not look appealing, it was one bad start against the Mets that is to blame and going back, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his last 13 starts. Situationally, we play on road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 with a starting pitcher who gives up seven or more hits per start and with an ERA of 7.50 or higher over his last three starts. This situation is 35-21 (62.5 percent) over the last five seasons while netting more than 22 units. 10* (911) Colorado Rockies |
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09-09-15 | LA Sparks -1.5 v. Atlanta Dream | Top | 60-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Los Angeles is heading back to the playoffs following its win over Tulsa on Sunday, a postseason berth that wasn't expected after a horrible start to the season. The Sparks opened 3-14 but have gone 11-4 over their last 15 games and while they cannot improve their playoff positioning, expect them to try and keep the momentum going into the postseason. They have one game remaining in the regular season on Friday so if players will be rested, that will be the night. Atlanta was officially eliminated from the playoffs because of the Washington victory last night so tonight be an emotional downer when it takes the floor. This is the first time the Dream will have missed the playoffs since 2008, their first season in the league. Atlanta won the first meeting this season so the Sparks will be out for payback and they fall into a solid league-wide situation where we play on favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 revenging a home loss. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (651) Los Angeles Sparks |
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09-08-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Los Angeles Angels +176 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The Angels continue to fight as they are now 5.5 games behind Houston in the American League West while sitting 2.5 games behind Texas for the second Wild Card spot. They are a game over .500 overall which is due to being 11 games under .500 on the road while being 12 games over .500 at home. The Dodgers still have a comfortable lead in their division but they have yet to win an Interleague road game this season, going 0-8. Clayton Kershaw is the reason for this line yet their isn't a whole lot to back it up because he is on the road. His numbers are still solid but he is just 3-4 on the highway compared to 9-2 at home and the Dodgers are 3-7 in his 10 road starts when the total is 7 or less this season. Andrew Heaney counters for the Angels which are 6-1 in his seven home starts with the lone loss coming against the best offense in baseball the Blue Jays. The Angels are 4-0 in Heaney's last four starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (980) Los Angeles Angels |
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09-08-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Chicago White Sox +131 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 131 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Cleveland won the season opener last night to move to 4-3 on its current roadtrip and sent the White Sox back to .500 at home. The Indians have been doing it on this trek with no offense however as they have four runs or less in six of the seven games. Carlos Carrasco gets the ball for the Indians and he is riding a five-game quality start streak so we are going against that tonight. He hates facing the White Sox as he has a 5.60 ERA in 11 career starts. Carlos Rodon is also riding a five-game quality outing streak yet comes in as the road underdog. The White Sox are 10-4 in his 14 starts against American League teams averaging 4.7 or fewer rpg. A contrarian situation is on our side also as we play against A.L. road teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season going up against an A.L. opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 on the season. This situation is 60-22 (73.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (972) Chicago White Sox |
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09-08-15 | Indiana Fever v. Washington Mystics -1.5 | Top | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The Eastern Conference positioning is in full force as the final week of the regular season is here. While Indiana is in the playoffs for the 11th straight season, Washington still has not clinched but its magic number is one and I expect the Mystics to clinch Tuesday. They are coming off a four-game roadtrip where they lost all four games so a return home is just what they need at this point. The last loss came against Atlanta which is the last team that can take them out of the playoff race. Indiana meanwhile is playing much better as it has dropped four of five to fall one game behind Chicago for second place in the Eastern Conference which comes with homecourt in the first round of the playoffs. The Fever defeated Washington here last month and the Mystics will be out to avoid a repeat of that. Washington has been solid in revenge mode this season as it is 11-4 ATS revenging a loss and it falls into a league-wide situation involving revenge. We play on favorites that are revenging a same season loss versus opponent while coming off two or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 78-41 (65.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (602) Washington Mystics |
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09-07-15 | Ohio State -14 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 42-24 | Win | 102 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Ohio St. is the preseason favorite to win a second straight National Championship and this team is loaded no doubt. Typically, we would take a look at the home underdog here because of the point value that usually comes with it but we are going the other way here. The Buckeyes will come in with some serious motivation after losing the season opener to the Hokies last season and to not lose again the rest of the season. Ohio State's offensive line got better throughout the course of last season. Against Virginia Tech, they had four new starters and Taylor Decker, who was playing at left tackle for the first time after starting on the right side the year before. The Buckeyes think they're better prepared for whatever the Hokies throw at them. The fact they have named the starter yet may concern some but it is a huge preparation disadvantage for the Hokies. Virginia Tech scored only 24 points before J.T. Barrett's last-minute pick-six last season and I don't see them scoring much here. There is always the talk of how good Virginia Tech is at home primetime games and while that may be the case, the Hokies have played the No. 1 team eight times in their history, and have lost all eight, seven by double figures. 10* (209) Ohio St. Buckeyes |
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09-07-15 | Houston Astros v. Oakland A's +139 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 139 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Houston took two of three against Minnesota to complete a .500 homestand but the road has not been good this season as the Astros are 11 games under .500 on the highway. Oakland has not been much better at home but the fact those splits are similar and the A's are getting a huge number here provides us with a great amount of value. Mike Fiers has been great since coming over from Milwaukee including throwing a no-hitter against the Dodgers. He has been average on the road just like his team however. Oakland counters with Felix Doubront who has been holding his own since coming to the A's from Toronto. He has a 2.57 ERA in three starts with the A's winning all three of those including impressive home wins against the Angels and Dodgers. 10* (924) Oakland A's |
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09-07-15 | Baltimore Orioles +150 v. New York Yankees | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
Baltimore dropped its final two games in Toronto and now will be out to snap a four-game slide to the Yankees in the season series. New York remains a game and a half behind Toronto in the American League East following a win yesterday over Tampa Bay. Michael Pineda takes the hill and he is coming off a quality outing last time out but he has struggled against the Orioles this season, posting a 5.60 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three starts. Wei-Yin Chen is coming off a poor outing against Tampa Bay but I expect the opposite to take place here as his numbers have been great all season. He had allowed four or more runs only two previous times and he bounced back with solid outings in his next start, both resulting in Baltimore wins. 10* (917) Baltimore Orioles |
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09-06-15 | Purdue +8 v. Marshall | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
We waited this one out hoping to get over the magic number in most spots and that is the case now. Marshall was one of the best stories last season as it started off 11-0 before losing its first game against Western Kentucky 67-66 in overtime. The Thundering Herd are far from the same team however as they lost superstar quarterback Rakeem Cato as well as linebacker Neville Hewitt, Conference USA's Player of the Year. Michael Birdsong takes over for Cato at quarterback and the transition could be difficult. He will ease into the system after his transfer from James Madison and this will be his first start in 21 months. Purdue has raved about its rigorous offseason workouts, with players becoming bigger and stronger. The Boilermakers have started a different quarterback in five straight season openers but the good news this year is after starting the final seven games last season, Austin Appleby maintained his spot atop the quarterback depth chart for this season. One big edge is in the trenches where Purdue brings back all five starters from its offensive line while Marshall lost 80 percent of its players along the defensive front. For the Boilermakers, Marshall has been the focus since offseason workouts started in January and they even had "Marshall Mondays" to ramp up the intensity and to keep the concentration on the season opener. Purdue has every chance to win this game outright but we will gladly grab the points. 10* (207) Purdue Boilermakers |
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09-05-15 | Akron +31.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 3-41 | Loss | -104 | 98 h 13 m | Show |
Since playing in its first ever bowl game in 2005, Akron has suffered through nine straight losing seasons. Three consecutive 1-11 seasons from 2009-2011 were tough to swallow but last year arguably trumped those. A win in the season finale against then 1-9 Kent St. would have made the Zips bowl eligible but instead, they allowed a touchdown with a minute left to fall short of a possible postseason bowl berth. Even with a strong coaching staff and a solid amount of returning players, winning on the road has been a problem for Akron, going 3-33 on the highway since 2009. So it may seen surprising that we are backing the Zips here as I feel they are an underrated team heading into the season based on past failures which is being reflected in this line. Oklahoma came into last season with high expectations but finished 8-5 and while expectations are high once again, don't expect the Sooner to be clicking on all cylinders early on in the season. They have a new offensive coordinator which means new offensive schemes and they have to replace four players along the offensive line. Overall, it is a very young Oklahoma team as it has only 10 seniors in the two-deep while having six freshmen there. Since coming to Akron in 2012, head coach Terry Bowden has fared well against Power Five teams with good showings at Tennessee, at Michigan, at Penn St., and even a win at Pittsburgh last season. This is the biggest number that Akron has received since that Michigan game two years ago and we will take full advantage. 10* (183) Akron Zips |
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09-05-15 | UL-Lafayette v. Kentucky -17 | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 11 m | Show |
Kentucky was one of our under the radar teams last season as they were projected with a 3.5-preseason win total and went on to win five games which may not seem great but it was a big step for a team coming off consecutive two-win seasons. This is the year that the Wildcats are expected to make an even bigger move and their first bowl game since 2010. Most of the players on the team are head coach Mark Stoops recruits and have been here for the High-Intensity training under Eric Korem. The Wildcats return major contributors in just about every position on offense and defense highlighted by quarterback Patrick Towles who will take a major step forward this season with even more firepower on offense and a new offensive coordinator in Shannon Dawson. Lafayette went 9-4 last season for a fourth straight year but the Cajuns are in a major rebuild right now. They opened camp with redshirt junior Brooks Haack, redshirt junior Jalen Nixon (Carencro High) and redshirt freshman Jordan Davis all vying to succeed three-year starter Terrance Broadway at quarterback and a starter will not be named until right up to gameday most likely but it won't matter who starts as there will be struggles. There are new coaches on defense and the defensive line is thin which is a concern. They are expected to contend in the Sun Belt again but even facing a non-elite SEC team in the first game of the season in not ideal and the talent differential will show big time here. 10* (192) Kentucky Wildcats |
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09-05-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +190 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
We lost a tough one on the Phillies last night despite outhitting the Red Sox but we are going to back them again this afternoon at another large underdog price. Alec Asher will be making his second big league start and should be much more comfortable today as he allowed a two-run homerun in the first inning of his first start against the Padres. He is a solid prospect that was acquired in the Cole Hamels trade and he put up a 3.97 ERA and 109/40 K/BB ratio over 133.2 innings between AA and AAA. Wade Miley goes for the Red Sox and while his numbers at home are more solid, he is still having a pretty average season and he is now laying a massive price for a starter of his magnitude. The Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 games against left-handed starters while the Red Sox are 2-8 in Miley's last 10 starts. 10* (929) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-05-15 | BYU +7 v. Nebraska | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 95 h 43 m | Show |
This is a great matchup for the underdog Cougars which once again plays a daunting schedule. BYU went 8-5 last season but it could have been a lot better as it started 4-0 before losing starting quarterback Taysom Hill for the season because of a broken leg. He is back at full health and is a Heisman Trophy candidate, albeit a longshot and the offense will again revolve around his accurate arm and strong running game. The defense was up and down last season and didn't end particularly good by allowing 55 points against Memphis in the Miami Beach Bowl but improvements are expected with plenty of returning experience especially on the defensive line. Nebraska has a new head coach in Mike Riley who came over from Oregon St. in a somewhat surprising move. That means changes are in order and at the top of the list is he has installed a new pro style offense behind returning starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. He was not very efficient last season as he completed just 53 percent of his passes and he will be asked to throw more this season and that is not going to be a good thing early in the season. The offensive line brings back just one starter that played every game last season and the Cougars should have a big edge in the trenches. The attitude is much different for BYU as well. "Entering this season there is a different feel than previous seasons. It's … team unity and excitement," captain Bronson Kaufusi said. "Everyone is united with the same goal. Everybody wants the same thing. There is a different level of confidence." 10* (177) BYU Cougars |
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09-05-15 | Stanford v. Northwestern UNDER 46.5 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 91 h 14 m | Show |
Quarterback is a huge area of concern for Northwestern as senior Zack Oliver, sophomore Matt Alviti and redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson competed closely throughout the spring but no one broke away. Thorson has been named the starter so we cannot expect to see a lot of explosiveness from the Wildcats. There are a ton of unknowns around him as well as the running backs and wide receivers lack experience. Stanford lost a lot on defense as well so that unit will be rather green but there is a lot of potential and when comparing the Northwestern offense and the Stanford defense, the latter has the biggest upside. Stanford ranked 3rd nationally last year in defensive rushing S&P+, and 4th in passing S&P+, while Northwestern ranked 111th out of 129 teams in offensive S&P+. The Wildcats defense was not very good last season as they were riddled with injuries but the players that were forced into action gained valuable experience. They are not going to be an elite unit but they will be good enough to keep Stanford from going off. The Cardinal offense brings back four of five starters from the offensive line and the running game will be at the forefront after last season, they failed to produce a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time since 2007. Under head coach David Shaw, Stanford is 18-4 to the under in its 22 road games while under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern is 13-4 to the under in its 17 non-conference home games. 10* Under (171) Stanford Cardinal/(172) Northwestern Wildcats |
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09-04-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +177 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
The Red Sox opened their homestand with a series loss against the Yankees to fall to an even .500 at home on the season. They had the day off on Thursday and going back, they are 2-5 in their last seven games following an off day. The Phillies hit the road again following a series loss against the first place Mets but are getting an exceptional price here against a team that is not even comparable to that. They have had their road struggles for sure but they have won five of their last six games against losing teams. Adam Morgan is coming off a quality outing last time out against the Padres and will be making his sixth road start following quality outings in four of his first five on the highway. His 1.07 WHIP over 29 road innings shows how good he has been and Philadelphia has won four of his last five games as an underdog between +151 and +200. Joe Kelly counters for Boston and he has not lost a game since July 22nd and the Red Sox have won his last six trips to the hill which makes this a great contrarian play at a very overinflated price. He has been pitching lights out but considering his near 5.00 ERA overall, he is capable of blowing up and going back, the Red Sox are 2-7 in Kelly's last nine starts as a favorite. 10* (979) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-04-15 | Michigan State v. Western Michigan +18 | Top | 37-24 | Win | 100 | 74 h 20 m | Show |
This is the first time since 2008 that Michigan St. has opened the season with a true road game and for Western Michigan, this is the first time it has opened a season at home since 2004. That happened to be the last time the Broncos opened the season with a victory and while the outright win here is not likely, the number is certainly on our side here. Western Michigan won eight games last season after winning just once in 2013 so the turnaround under head coach P.J. Fleck, now in his third season, was huge. The Broncos have the ability to be even better this season as they bring back 16 starters overall while nine starters return from an offense that ranked second in the MAC in scoring at 33.8 ppg. Michigan St. comes into the season ranked fifth in the AP Preseason poll so the fact the Spartans are favored by so much is not surprising. The have one of the top quarterbacks in the Big Ten and a stout offensive line but they have to replace Big Ten Receiver of the Year Tony Lippett and 1,500-yard rusher Jeremy Langford so it will not be a seamless transition from last season. On the other side, the big issue for the Spartans defense is in the secondary that has to replace its top two players from last year and in addition are breaking in a new defensive coordinator as Pat Narduzzi moved on to take the head job at Pittsburgh. This is a no pressure game for the Broncos and we expect them to keep this highly competitive and stay within the inflated number. 10* (156) Western Michigan Broncos |
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09-04-15 | Colorado v. Hawaii +8 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 250 h 8 m | Show |
Hawaii head coach Norm Chow has won just eight games in his three seasons and he enters this year clearly on the hot seat. A brutal early season schedule that features this game along with road games at Ohio St., Wisconsin and Boise St. is not ideal to turn things around but this is a very winnable game and one that this team needs for confidence. The normal powerful offense has been anything but however that could change here as up-tempo coordinator Don Bailey comes over from Idaho St. where the Bengals topped the FCS in passing yards per game (348.1) in 2014. Quarterbacks completed 60 percent of their passes and averaged an aggressive 12.9 yards per completion while throwing picks less than 2 percent of the time and getting sacked less than 3 percent of the time. Colorado expects to be an improved team this season as well but going from 2-10 to a better record shouldn't take much anyway. Offensively the Buffaloes will be solid and they plan to exploit a young Hawaii defense but it is the other side that is the problem. The Buffaloes ranked 102nd in the nation in rushing defense and 116th in scoring defense last season and there is not a lot of hope for a big improvement, that is where this number is good for Hawaii as they have the offense that can backdoor this spread if necessary. Even though not as intimidating as usual, Hawaii is always a tough place to play for opponents and the outright win here would not be surprising. 10* (150) Hawaii Warriors |
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09-03-15 | Texas-San Antonio v. Arizona -31 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -110 | 247 h 9 m | Show |
UTSA and Arizona squared off last season and we won with the Roadrunners as they lost by just three points at home as a 7.5-point underdog. They were outgained by over 100 total yards however but were able to stay within the number thanks to an amped up home field but that will not be the case this season. UTSA goes from one of the most experienced team in the country with 20 starters returning to one of the least experienced teams with just three starters back this season, all on defense. The Roadrunners are the only team in the country that has to replace all starters on both lines so facing a strong Arizona team in their first game is not ideal. The Wildcats made it to the Pac 12 Championship last season and while it will be tough to get back there, the potential is there for another strong season. Wildcats quarterback Anu Solomon was brilliant at times last season and in others, he looked like a freshman. He has a lot to learn still but talent returns everywhere and he can get a lot better. He should have no problem against this defense. Sophomore tailback Nick Wilson rushed for 1,375 yards last season and has a chance for a big game. Arizona should improve on defense as well but even if it will take time, there is no worry here against an offense that has no one back. The close call in the meeting last season will no doubt have Arizona focused here. 10* (148) Arizona Wildcats |
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09-03-15 | Duke v. Tulane +9.5 | Top | 37-7 | Loss | -106 | 247 h 39 m | Show |
Week One of the college football season can be tricky as there is not much to work off of but the same goes for the linesmakers as well. They have the tough job in setting these lines and a lot of that is based on last year and predictions going forward for this season. Duke had an outstanding season last year and it has won 25 games over the past three season but 2015 could be tough out of the gate. Replacing quarterback Anthony Boone and receiver Jamison Crowder have moved on so the explosive offense from last season will be tough to replicate. Defensively, the Blue Devils are strong in the secondary but very weak up front. Tulane can take advantage. The Green Wave struggled with the passing offense behind Tanner Lee but they will be better and the running game is the strength anyway. Four offensive line starters are back and the three-headed backfield of Sherman Badie, Lazedrick Thompson and Dontrell Hilliard is one of the best in the American Athletic Conference. Tulane fell from 22nd in total yards allowed in 2013 to 55th last season but it should be on the way back up with several key starters returning. These teams met last season with Duke winning at home by 34 points despite outgaining the Green Wave by just 46 total yards. Duke was favored by 16.5 points there and the line is pretty equivalent based on the venue change which means it is way too high over the span of a year. 10* (144) Tulane Green Wave |
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09-03-15 | Chicago White Sox +123 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 123 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
The Twins have been red hot with wins in 10 of their last 12 games and while they are pretty much out of the American League Central race, they are right in the Wild Card hunt, sitting just a game behind Texas for the second spot. They were favored last night, just the second time since mid-August that they have been a chalk and today is just the 23rd time all season they have been favored. Wins have been few and far between for Chicago but we are backing the White Sox in this contrarian situation on a pitcher that everyone has given up on. Jeff Samardzija was trade bait around the deadline and he has not been on his game to say the least. He posted an 8.82 ERA in six August starts and to no surprise, the White Sox dropped all six of those games but four of those losses were by just one run so things could have gone either way which makes this contrarian play even more worthy. Kyle Gibson counters for Minnesota and while his overall numbers are solid, he has not been pitching well of late either as he has a 6.29 ERA over his last eight starts and has just two quality outings over that stretch. The other contrarian angle is he has never lost to Chicago with Minnesota outscoring the White Sox 32-9 in four starts. 10* (909) Chicago White Sox |
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09-02-15 | Cleveland Indians +163 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Cleveland had its six-game winning streak snapped last night with a 5-3 loss in extra innings as Toronto hit a walkoff two-run home run to maintain its lead over the Yankees in the American League East. We will be going against the Blue Jays here with R.A. Dickey on the hill as I feel he is very overpriced due to his recent winning run. He has not lost since July 9th with Toronto going 8-0 in his last eight starts but two of his last three have been duds and he has been extremely fortunate to receive a ton of run support as he has gotten 7.0 rpg over the stretch. Trevor Bauer looks to put that to a halt and is more than capable with his 2.84 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 12 road starts, nine of which have been quality. He's bounced back from a rough stretch by allowing two earned runs in 14.1 innings over his last two starts and going back, the Indians are 5-1 in Bauer's last six road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (971) Cleveland Indians |
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