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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
After losing the opening game, Miami has regained control of this series with two straight wins and it looks to take a commanding 3-1 lead before going back to Indiana. The Pacers will have something to say about that however. The series could easily be 2-1 in their favor and even 3-0 for that matter as they blew it late at home in Game Two and lost a 15-point lead in Game Three. Prior to Miami's back-to-back victories, the teams had alternated wins and losses in 13 straight meetings which shows how evenly matched up they really are but it has been the Pacers that have had the trouble of closing. The Heat have trailed by at least eight points in the first quarter of each of the first three games of this series so give them credit for coming back in two of those but also give credit to Indiana for the good starts and another one could mean an even series going back to Indiana. The Pacers shot 12-of-36 on jump shots Saturday, including 6-of-20 (30 percent) on uncontested jumpers, their worst in a game this playoffs so we will see a better performance in Game Four. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points and the outright win isn't out of the question. 10* (513) Indiana Pacers |
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05-26-14 | Minnesota Lynx +1 v. Chicago Sky | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
The only two remaining undefeated teams in the WNBA square off on Monday and while the home court is perceived to be a big edge, that really has not been the case in the league in the early part of the season. Through the first 21 games, the host is just 10-11 and while that has little to do with this game, it does have some impact public perception which is still behind the home teams due to the short lines. We played against Chicago in its last game on Saturday as it hosted Atlanta and the Sky rolled to make it a 4-0 start and prove last season was no fluke. While I thought the Dream were out to prove something for themselves, it will be Minnesota that remains undefeated after tonight. The Lynx are 4-0 but they have dropped three straight against the number while Chicago is a perfect 4-0 ATS and those are streaks we prefer going against. More importantly than these currents streaks, the Lynx are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. 10* (651) Minnesota Lynx |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The Spurs are proving to be the best team in the NBA after dominating the first two games of this series at home. The Western Conference Finals now switch to Oklahoma City and this has now turned into a must win game for the Thunder as a 0-3 deficit will pretty much do them in. I expect a turnaround tonight. While the Thunder followed up a Game One loss with another defeat, they are 19-10 this season following a loss and the short price here likely means a cover as well. San Antonio is playing its best basketball right now but the Spurs have covered just one of their last six road games and on the season, they are only 11-13 ATS in their 24 road games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Thunder have covered seven straight meetings at home in this series and they are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Oklahoma City gets back into the series with a big victory on Sunday. 10* (512) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat OVER 183 | Top | 87-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
We have seen this total go from one extreme to the other as Miami and Indiana combined for 203 points in Game One and then dropped to 170 points in Game Two. The posted totals have reflected the points scored as they have moved each game according to what happened in the prior game and we are seeing it again here albeit ever so slightly. The defenses were not on the floor in the first game but both stepped up last time out or did they? Miami shot 50.7 percent from the floor despite the low point total and it is hitting slightly over 51 percent through the first two games and a return home should keep that going. Four the Heat's last five home games have surpassed the total and while Indiana has played under mostly on the road of late, the Over is 10-4-1 in the Pacers last 15 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The extended time off also helps the cause as Indiana is 4-0 to the over in its last four games playing with three or more days rest while the over is 18-7-1 in Miami's last 26 games playing with three or more days rest. 10* Over (509) Indiana Pacers/(510) Miami Heat |
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05-24-14 | Atlanta Dream +1.5 v. Chicago Sky | Top | 73-87 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Atlanta represented the Eastern Conference last year in the WNBA Finals but it was swept by Minnesota and badly for that matter. The Dream certainly want to get back to there again and will be playing every game for a reason to strive for the best record in the conference, unseating tonight's opponent. Atlanta is off to a 2-0 start with close wins over San Antonio and Indiana, the last coming in overtime a week ago. The Dream have failed to cover both games as they were favored in both but now are getting points for the first time this season. Chicago had the best record in the Eastern Conference last season at 24-10 and is already off to a 3-0 start this year so it is no surprise that the public is flocking the Sky here behind this short number. Additionally, the Sky have covered all three games so we are going contrarian on both sides of the ATS records to start off the season. An additional motivational factor will be in play for the Dream as Atlanta forward Swin Cash makes her return to Chicago after the Sky traded her earlier this month. 10* (655) Atlanta Dream |
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05-24-14 | Texas Rangers +160 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 12-2 | Win | 160 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
The Tigers snapped their four-game skid with an easy win last night while the Rangers continue their inconsistent play this season, falling to two games under .500 overall. The value is on the side of Texas tonight though as we are catching an inflated number. Rick Porcello has been on fire as he has tossed four quality starts and he is 6-for-8 in that category this season but this is where I like going against that streak. Those quality outing streaks are reserved for the elite pitchers in the league and no disrespect to Porcello but he is not there. Additionally, this start was pushed back a couple days because he has a side injury that he had to deal with and that could be an issue tonight. Texas counters with Nick Martinez who is making his fourth start of the season as the Rangers rotation continues to battle injuries. He has been pretty solid in the spot start role as he has allowed three runs or less each time out, posting a 3.38 ERA in the process. Keeping the Rangers in the game has been the goal and it has been hit each time. 10* (919) Texas Rangers |
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05-23-14 | Minnesota Lynx v. Tulsa Shock +7 | Top | 94-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
The reigning WNBA Champions Minnesota Lynx are off to a 2-0 start this season and going back to last year, they are riding a 10-game winning streak as they cruised through the playoffs without a single defeat. They finished with the best record in the league and are the favorites to win it all again this season. With the lofty expectations comes public money which in turn inflates their numbers and going against them in this spot is going against a huge part of the masses. Minnesota went 11-6 on the road last season which is only a few games better of where Tulsa finished at home and despite possessing the second worst record in the WNBA last season, there is plenty of optimism coming into this season. The Shock have not had a winning season or challenged for a playoff berth in their first four years in Tulsa but all that does is inflate the lines going against them. Tulsa is coming off a loss in its season opener but the most encouraging thing was that the Shock played like a team that deserved to win and had its chances in the closing seconds. They come in confident in their home opener and they have definitely been able to step it up as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. 10* (606) Tulsa Shock |
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05-22-14 | Montreal Canadiens +156 v. NY Rangers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 156 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
While many think this series may be over, I am not one of those. Montreal can get back into the series with a win tonight and winning big games on the road is far from a problem for the Canadiens. I think we also see a refreshed team that could have an emotional edge despite playing this game on the highway. Montreal head coach Michel Therrien admitted Tuesday that the Canadiens were physically and emotionally spent after a seven-game victory over the Bruins in the conference semifinal and that's one reason he gave his players a day off Tuesday. Let's not forget the Canadiens won twice in Tampa Bay and twice in Boston including Game Seven and overall they are 27-20 on the road this season. The Rangers certainly have the momentum after falling behind 3-1 against Pittsburgh, they rallied to win the final three games before taking the first two of this series but because of this, they are laying their biggest moneyline of the playoffs and it is simply too big. So not only are we playing on a team in desperation mode, but we are getting them at an exceptional price. Montreal has won 10 of its last 14 road games while going 9-3 in its last 12 games after scoring two goals or less in its previous game. The Rangers are just 4-3 at home in the postseason and 24-24 overall and they have been very poor as big favorites this season. They are 16-17 as favorites of -150 or higher while losing a whopping -1,021 in the process. 10* (9) Montreal Canadiens |
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05-21-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 212 | Top | 77-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
Similar to the Miami/Indiana game last night, we are seeing a jump in this total due to the results from Game One. In this case, the Thunder and Spurs combined for 227 points which went over the total by close to 20 points and now the over/under has gone from a 208.5 closing in Game One to as high as 212 in some places on Wednesday for Game Two. We are going the value route once again and while neither of these teams are on big over runs which would increase the contrarian values, the defenses are not getting the respect they deserve here. While both offenses are very potent, the defenses are overshadowed as the Thunder are allowing 43.7 percent shooting and the Spurs are allowing 44.3 percent shooting and combined they allow just over 198 ppg. The big factor tonight will be the Oklahoma City defense as it was damaged the most in the opener by allowing 57.5 percent shooting no thanks to giving up 66 points in the paint. On the other side, the Spurs have to shore up as well as they allowed 59 first half points. Kevin Durant has surpassed his scoring average in just one of five meetings this season, while Russell Westbrook shot below 50 percent for the 23rd time in 28 career matchups. The Under is 4-1 in the Thunder's last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Under is 14-6 in the Spurs last 20 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (507) Oklahoma City Thunder/(508) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-21-14 | Los Angeles Kings +136 v. Chicago Blackhawks | Top | 6-2 | Win | 136 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
We are going against the grain here as you are going to see a lot of people again backing the home side. We did so in Game One on Sunday but a big reason for backing Chicago was the situational aspect of it as Los Angeles went seven games against both San Jose and Anaheim, winning the clinching game on the road both times. The victory over the Ducks took place Friday night and then they had to open this series with very little rest after traveling across the country to play an afternoon game. Not the Kings catch a break as they have had two days off to rest an get over the Game One loss. The Blackhawks will be a popular play simply because they have yet to lost at home in the playoffs as they have a 7-0 record in the playoffs thus far and going back to the regular season, they have won 11 straight home games. Adding to that is the fact that Chicago has won all four meetings this season so the betting line is getting even bigger. We are going against them all here as the Kings have showed a lot of determination throughout the postseason and have won games no one thought they could, this being another classic example. The rest hurts Chicago the most as it kills momentum and the Blackhawks are 4-12 in their last 16 games playing on two days rest. Look for Los Angeles to bite back behinds a strong effort from goalie Jonathan Quick and even up this series. 10* (7) Los Angeles Kings |
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05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
We are getting some good value with the total tonight after the first game went over the number by 21 points. It was the fourth straight game that Miami has gone over the total as well as sixth in the last seven games and that is a streak we like going against as it offers solid contrarian value. Indiana has been mostly on an under run with six of its last nine games staying below the total and this number again fits. This total is right in the range where Indiana has stayed under the number in a vast majority of its games this season. When the total is in the 180's, the Pacers are 32-12 to the under since the start of the season. Game One saw Miami shoot 51.3 percent from the floor and Indiana shoot 51.5 percent from the floor and both teams are going to be out to tighten up those defenses as they both came in playing well on that side of the floor. Throughout 14 postseason games thus far, Indiana has shot 44.8 percent from the field including 38.2 percent from beyond the arc and that is a lot more realistic of what we should see tonight. The fact that Indiana was able to generate such efficient offense was surprising enough on its own, but the fact it pulled it off against an opponent so familiar with its limited playbook was even more surprising. The Pacers are the better of the two defenses in this matchup and we will see a definite improvement there. The under is 9-4 in the Pacers last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Under (505) Miami Heat/(506) Indiana Pacers |
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05-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | Top | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The Thunder lost the opening game against the Clippers but came back to win four of the next five to advance to the Western Conference finals. San Antonio meanwhile had no trouble with Portland after taking two of the final three games against Dallas so it is playing some of its best basketball right now and it certainly caught a break in this series. The loss of Serge Ibaka for Oklahoma is huge as it really affects both sides of the floor. Offensively, he is their third scoring option and during the playoffs, he averaged 12.2 ppg on 61.6 percent shooting and that will be missed. Defensively, it will be even more painful as Oklahoma City had a big matchup edge with him against the Spurs this season. San Antonio's offense averaged 93 points per 100 possessions when Ibaka was on the court, and 120.8 (shooting 51.4 percent) when he was on the bench. That is 27.8 per 100 better when he was out. Additionally, Russell Westbrook shot just 32 percent with Tony Parker guarding him during the regular season and now with Ibaka out, the offense of the Thunder could really suffer. Oklahoma City has been awesome as an underdog this season but I don't like the setup in Game One. While the Spurs don't need extra motivation, the fact they were swept 4-0 during the regular season against Oklahoma City should give them an extra push to not only win, but win big and make a statement to open this series. 10* (504) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-19-14 | NY Rangers v. Montreal Canadiens -125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
As good as Montreal looked in Game Seven against Boston, it could not have looked much worse in Game One against the Rangers. The Canadiens allowed seven goals, the most they have allowed all season but we will see a different team on the ice tonight. While the defense was bad, the offense was not much better as they scored only two goals but the Canadiens are 9-2 in their last 11 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. It was a game where they kicked themselves in the foot and could not recover as Montreal had eight of the game's first nine penalties and that is one way to not win. The Rangers did have a lot breaks go their way and even they admitted to that. The big question tonight is the status of Montreal goalie Carey Price as he appeared shaken up after a collision during the second period with Rangers winger Chris Kreider. He was pulled after the period and while it was stated it wasn't because of injury, he did not participate in yesterday's optional practice. If he cannot go, Peter Budaj will get the start and he has been solid with a 2.51 GAA and he is 18-9 in 27 starts the last two years. On the other side, Henrik Lundqvist was solid but coming in, he was 4-5-2 with a 3.87 GAA and .876 save percentage at the Bell Centre so the Canadiens know they can get to him. Montreal is laying a little bit extra here than it did in Game One but it is insignificant and we will see the Canadiens tie this series up and avoid the big 2-0 hole. 10* (6) Montreal Canadiens |
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05-18-14 | Miami Heat -2 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
The home team dominated the regular season series, winning all four meetings and going back to last season, it has been eight straight games since the visitor was able to taste victory. That changes in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday. Indiana closed the regular season on a 10-13 run and it did its best to get ousted in the first round against Atlanta as it got taken to seven games after trailing 3-2 in the series. Against Washington, the Pacers won 4-3 but they were on the verge of heading back home for a Game Seven before a late run on Thursday night sealed a win. This team is clearly still not right and being a home underdog may be attractive to some, but not me. Miami had no issues with Charlotte in its first round sweep and while it slipped up one game against the Nets, they went through them pretty easily. The big key here is rest as the Heat played just nine playoff games while the Pacers played 13 so they will no doubt be the fresher team and on top of it, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on three or more days rest. This is the third straight season that these two have met in the playoffs and since 1994, when a team has beaten a team in consecutive years in the playoffs and then met again for a third straight year, that team has won again four out of the five times it has happened. Granted, that is the series but with Indiana having home court, Miami will have to win here and it should make a statement in Game One. The Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (501) Miami Heat |
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05-16-14 | Los Angeles Kings v. Anaheim Ducks -120 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The Kings were able to stay alive in this series with a win on Wednesday and span Anaheim's three-game run. The series has been as even as you can get as the Kings have won three games and scored 13 goals while the Ducks have won three games and scored 13 goals. While we have seen some surprises in Game Seven's thus far with road upsets involving Montreal and New York, I feel the home ice holds serve on Friday. The Ducks are now back home where they are 33-14 on the season and going back further, they are 51-23 in their last 74 home games so it is a pretty significant home ice advantage. One advantage for the Kings is goaltending as Jonathan Quick is one of the best around and Anaheim needs to neutralize that. It is no secret that he has been in goal in five elimination games this year alone and has won all five but in the three games they won, the Ducks did a good job of getting bodies in front of Quick, setting screens and battling for rebounds to create quality scoring chances. Los Angeles used its strong defense to hold off the Ducks in Game Six but carrying that over has been a problem as the Kings are 0-5 in their last five games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Coach Bruce Boudreau and the top-seeded Ducks had the best regular season in franchise history, but will have little to show for it without a win and they come through tonight to advance to the Western Conference Finals. 10* (82) Anaheim Ducks |
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05-15-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
We won the Clippers on Tuesday and while they lost outright in a very controversial ending, I expect yet another very close game tonight. It is a must win game for Los Angeles and while it is 38-9 at home on the season, the line value is significantly going the other way. If the Clippers were getting 5.5 points on the road in the last game, a typical line move for the venue change would make them a 2.5-point favorite here as home court is usually awarded four points. We are seeing a much bigger adjustment just like the one we saw from Game Four to Game Five where Oklahoma City went from a five-point underdog to a 5.5-point favorite and these 10.5-point swings are simply too much as the home floor is being given too much credit. The last two game has seen the eventual winner rally from late deficits to shock the other team as the Clippers came back from 16 points down in the fourth quarter to win Game Four while the Clippers squandered a late 13-point lead against the Oklahoma City to lose Game Five. What should we expect tonight? I think it is doubtful we see another big lead let alone one that is lost as these teams are just about dead even in scoring differential in this series through five games (108-107.8 favoring Los Angeles). The Clippers are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record including going 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile the Thunder are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (743) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-15-14 | Baltimore Orioles +120 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 2-1 | Win | 120 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
The Orioles have not been playing very well after winning five straight games as they lost their series finale to Houston and then welcomes the Tigers only to lose that series as well. Still, they are over .500 on the season including a solid 11-8 record on the road and the feeling here is that they open this series with a win as they have won four of their last five series openers. Wei-Yin Chen gets the call on Thursday and while his overall numbers are nothing spectacular, he has been pitching well of late. He allowed four runs in each of his first two starts but in his last five starts, he has allowed three runs or less in each game while posting a 2.97 ERA with Baltimore winning four of those five games, In three starts against the Royals going back to last season, he has posted three quality outings for a 3.05 ERA. The Royals have been playing a lot better since suffering through a five-game losing streak to open May but I don't think they should be favored this much against a quality team and a quality pitcher. Yordano Ventura has been a pleasant surprise to the rotation as he has a 2.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first seven starts, five of which have been quality outings. He does not have a lot to show for it however as the Royals are just 3-4 in those games as the offense has been not giving him much, averaging just 3.14 rpg in those seven contests. It also hasn't helped that the bullpen has allowed 11 runs after relieving him. He did shut down Baltimore in his first start against the Orioles this year but that was coming off a 1-4 stretch for Kansas City. 10* (963) Baltimore Orioles |
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05-14-14 | Anaheim Ducks +128 v. Los Angeles Kings | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
We have won with Anaheim in each of the last three games and I feel there is too much momentum and confidence with them right now to back off them. After losing the first two games, the Ducks have rolled to win the last three games and they can end the series and set up a showdown with Chicago in the Western Conference finals. Winning tonight would be huge as it would give Anaheim roughly the same amount of rest as the Blackhawks and avoid another game on Friday. The Ducks proved over the last three games that they are faster, more skillful with the puck and better able to call on their depth to win. Their power play and their play in goal have been huge difference-makers over the last three games and they are in a familiar situation as they won Game Six in their first-round series, rallying from 3-1 and 4-2 deficits to eliminate the Stars with a 5-4 overtime win. The Kings have been here before and in an even worse off situation having to come back from a 3-0 deficit against San Jose. The difference though is Los Angeles had two early wins in Games Four and Five and was able to gain momentum late in the series when the pressure was on. Now the Kings have no momentum and with five straight losses at home against Anaheim, confidence is not very high right now. The Ducks are now 44-16 in their last 60 games following a win while going 9-3 in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record.10* (77) Anaheim Ducks |
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05-14-14 | BROOKLYN GM5 v. MIAMI GM5 UNDER 189 | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Miami and Brooklyn are in a possible playoff clinching game and while both closed their first round series with overs, I expect this one to stay below the total even though it not an elimination game for sure. Three of the first four games of this series have gone over the total including each of the last two and because of that, we are getting some added value as this total is two points higher than the last game. While a bucket may not seem like much, we have all seen how some of these come right down to the final possession or final free throw so every point counts. This also goes along the lines of using the zig zag or bounce angle and I have mentioned in the past that while the sides have not been as good in recent years, totals have still done pretty well and with us going against a two-game over run, it is even more in our favor. Going back, Brooklyn has gone over the total is seven of their last 10 games while Miami has also gone over in seven of their last 10 games and those are obviously trends that we prefer to fade as recent games tends to not only sway the public but that in turn changes the numbers. The Under is 4-0 in Miami's last four home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the under is 6-2 in Brooklyn's last eight games as a single-digit underdog of seven or more points. 10* Under (737) Brooklyn Nets/(738) Miami Heat |
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05-13-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM5 +5.5 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM5 | Top | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The Clippers escaped with a huge win on Sunday as they rallied from a 22-point deficit to win by two points to even this series. I think that momentum carries over into Tuesday. Los Angeles shot just 25 percent in the first quarter and trailed by as many as 16 points in the final period before the huge comeback to stay in the series. The Clippers know they can win here as they did so in Game One and the value is on their side as they have failed to cover the last three games against the Thunder. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have played outstanding basketball in the series, but the Thunder have lost when others haven't produced. The Clippers had success with Chris Paul guarding Durant at times in the second half on Sunday. Though Durant made 7 of 10 field goals after the break, he also committed seven turnovers and Paul is known for his exceptional defense. It is that defense as a whole that will be important tonight. The Clippers have covered 10 of 16 games this season as road underdogs and they have won an outstanding 43 of 55 games outright when playing with one day of rest. The road team has dominated this series since the end of the regular season and while Los Angeles has an excellent shot at winning outright, we will grab the points and take the cover at the very least. 10* (735) Los Angeles Clippers |
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05-13-14 | NY Rangers +147 v. Pittsburgh Penguins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 147 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
While many thought the Rangers were dead in this series, they have come back to win the last two games and the momentum is squarely on their side now. That being said, the pressure is now on the on the other side as the Penguins, who led the series 3-1, failed in their first attempt to advance to the Eastern Conference finals with a 5-1 home loss on Friday. Now the pressure has shifted to them, and frustration is showing. Henrik Lundqvist has been outstanding the last two games between the pipes as he has allowed just one goal in each game while on the other side, Marc-Andre Fleury is once again having issues and it is coming at the wrong time. The Pittsburgh home ice has been great all year but the Rangers road record is just three games worse than the Penguins home record which is insignificant. Game Seven is no sure thing for the home team and New York continues to remain clutch in these situations as the Rangers are 9-2 in their past 11 games when facing elimination, dating to Game Six of the first round in 2012 at Ottawa. We will go opposite of most here and take the generous line. 10* (71) New York Rangers |
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05-12-14 | MIAMI GM4 -2.5 v. BROOKLYN GM4 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
After rolling in the first two games of this series, Miami got rolled in Game Three in Brooklyn but I expect a rebound tonight in Game Four to take control of this series. The Heat lost all four regular season meetings as the Nets were able to come up with huge plays in crunch-time which equaled three one-point wins and one double-overtime victory. Obviously all of those games could have gone the other way and Miami proved it is the better team in the first two games of this series and it now needs to do so again. Brooklyn shot lights out in Game Three as it went 52.8 percent from the floor including 60 percent from long range on 15-25 shooting but don't expect to see those types of numbers again as Miami is much better defensively. After the game, LeBron James addressed both the intensity that was lacking in Game Three, as well as the inability to keep the Nets from making 15 three-pointers. "We have to be better in Game Four," he said. "We understand that. The loose balls we gave up two threes on, not getting on the floor, we gave up some easy ones. And we can't allow that." Miami is laying an extra point and a half than it did in Game Three but it does not amount to much as it is still a one possession line. The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points while the Nets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (729) Miami Heat |
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05-11-14 | OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 v. LA CLIPPERS GM4 -5 | Top | 99-101 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
After blowing away Oklahoma City on the road in Game One of this series, the Clippers have lost the last two games, including the most recent one at home, and have thus given the home court advantage back to the Thunder. Now the goal is to even up this series and avoid a 3-1 hole and having to go back to Oklahoma City to try and stay alive. Los Angeles is 37-9 at home so the loss here on Friday was a rare one and it has not lost two straight games at home all season. The Clippers are a perfect 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS in their eight home games following a loss in their most recent home game. Arguably even more impressive is that the Clippers longest winning streak this season is just two games as they are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS following two consecutive losses. Oklahoma City will be no pushover as it wants to take control of this series and while it has won three straight road games, it is just 5-6 in its last 11 games on the highway. Going back further, the Thunder are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. Look for a great effort from the Clippers today as they even up the series on Sunday. 10* (726) Los Angeles Clippers |
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05-10-14 | SAN ANTONIO GM3 v. PORTLAND GM3 +1.5 | Top | 118-103 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
We are banking on the third time being the charm for Portland as it looks to stay alive in this series and avoid going down 3-0. The Blazers have been dominated in the first two games of this series, losing by 24 and 17 points and while we were on the wrong side both times, a return home will definitely help them. Portland is 33-11 at home including wins in nine of their last 12 games and it is catching points which is a rarity as it is 2-0 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the playoffs right now as in addition to the two blowout wins over the Blazers, they dominated Dallas in the final game of their opening series, winning by 23 points. All of those games were at home and while San Antonio is a very solid road team, it is just 10-12 ATS on the highway against winning teams. Additionally, it is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games, losing three of those games outright. Portland has now gone six straight games without a cover and that is playing into this number as well which adds contrarian value to it. The Blazers have covered 10 of the last 13 meetings at home against the Spurs and they get back into the series with a must win tonight. 10* (724) Portland Trailblazers |
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05-10-14 | ANAHEIM GM4 +140 v. LOS ANGELES GM4 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 140 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Anaheim came through for us on Thursday as it got back into the series with a 3-2 victory. It took advantage of the power play once again and the Ducks have now converted on eight of their last 20 opportunities and the momentum should roll into Saturday. The road team has now taken six straight in this series with Anaheim winning the last four games in Los Angeles and tonight, it is getting the best price of all of those games. The Kings had their six-game winning streak snapped with the Thursday loss and the three goals allowed were the most allowed since the beginning of that winning streak against San Jose. Many will expect a bounceback from Los Angeles and the linesmakers are taking that into consideration by increasing the moneyline from Game Three. Losing streaks have been an issue for the Kings as they are 6-14 in their last 20 games following a loss and the offense has been the problem as they have scored two goals or less in 14 of those games. On top of it, the Kings are 3-7 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record while the Ducks are 42-16 in their last 58 games following a win and 23-9 in their last 32 games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (61) Anaheim Ducks |
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05-08-14 | Anaheim Ducks +125 v. Los Angeles Kings | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The Ducks find themselves in a big hole as they are down 2-0 in this series with two games upcoming in Los Angeles. After a brutal overtime loss in Game One, Anaheim could not recover and came out surprisingly flat and it can ill afford to let that happen again in order to stay in this series. The Kings are the hottest team remaining in the playoffs right now as they have won six straight games after losing its first three contests against San Jose in the first round. Obviously they have the positive momentum on their side but they are facing a quality opponent in desperation mode and the Ducks know they can win here as they did it three times during the regular season and going back, the road team has taken five straight games in this series. The Ducks were the highest scoring team in the NHL during the regular season but they have not shown much in this series as they haven't gotten enough scoring from their top trio. They need to open it up and utilize their speed which is a big advantage against the Kings. They are taking too many shots to not have scored much and the key is to be more spread out which hurt the Los Angeles defense. The Ducks are 30-13 in their last 43 games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game and I expect them to come though in this must win game. 10* (53) Anaheim Ducks |
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05-08-14 | Portland Trailblazers +7 v. SAN ANTONIO GM2 | Top | 97-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
We played on Portland on Tuesday and it was clearly a horrible call but that won't stop us from betting on them again tonight. The bounce angle has worked pretty well this season after a few years of it going the other way because the linesmakers caught on and have shaded the line the other way but in the case tonight, we are actually getting a better number. That is due to the overall dominance that San Antonio put forth in Game One but this is not that big of an advantage matchup for the Spurs as that game indicates. Portland never led in Game One and trailed by 26 at halftime so it was over early but I expect a much better effort tonight. The Blazers rushed their plays and didn't allow them to develop and that was likely a sign of nerves which was surprising considering they went to Houston in Game One of the opening round and played great. Additionally, they gave up 13 offensive rebounds and way too many second-chance points to a team that places relatively low emphasis on both areas offensively as we mentioned in the Game One analysis. Despite the easy win, the Spurs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall while going 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Blazers are still respectable on the road, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the highway. It will be far from surprising to see Portland tie this series up but at the very least, stay within this big number tonight. 10* (715) Portland Trailblazers |
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05-07-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM2 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM2 -5.5 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 33 h 41 m | Show |
Oklahoma City could not have played a worse game to open this series as they trailed by as many as 29 points and was pretty much done from the start after allowing 39 first quarter points. The Thunder committed 18 turnovers leading to 23 Los Angeles points which certainly is not going to get things done and consequentially, they suffered their worst home playoff loss in six seasons since relocating from Seattle to Oklahoma City. It was the second straight home loss to the Clippers after going down by eight points back in February and we will see a huge effort on Wednesday to avoid going down 2-0 in this series and putting their backs squarely against the wall. Credit has to go out to the Clippers for dominating on the road as they had won just one of their previous four road games coming in and are now just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. While it was a great performance, Los Angeles was just 17-30 from the free throw line and while it may be considered an aberration, fouling DeAndre Jordan is a definite option going forward as he is shooting a putrid 42.8 percent from the stripe this season. Oklahoma City is 17-9 this season after a loss and the Thunder are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Clippers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 10 points. Look for the Thunder to return the favor on Wednesday and square up this series. 10* (712) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-07-14 | Pittsburgh Penguins v. NY Rangers -102 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
While this isn't a series ending game for the Rangers, a loss here would be devastating. Falling down 3-1 with still two games left in Pittsburgh would be a killer and hard to recover from so after getting shutout in back-to-back games, I expect New York to fight back tonight and even this series up. Granted their play at home has not been as good as it has been on the road this season but the Rangers have won seven of their last 10 games at home. The last time they were shutout at home against San Jose back in March, they responded by scoring eight goals in their next game two days later. Additionally, the Rangers are 5-1 in their last six games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. The Penguins defense has been outstanding after a rough series against Columbus as they have allowed just two goals in regulation through the first three games. While the defense has been good, a lot of that can be attributed to the bad draw that New York had after a stretch of five playoff games in seven days which included two back-to-backs. The Rangers took yesterday off which is the best thing they could have done. Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist has been sharp in the three games against Pittsburgh, but has just one win to show for it. That changes after tonight as New York gets its offense in gear and heads back to Pittsburgh on Friday all tied up. 10* (24) New York Rangers |
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05-06-14 | Portland Trail Blazers +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 92-116 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The Spurs won for us on Sunday as they easily took care of Dallas in Game Seven which ended up being a tougher than expected series. Now they have a quick turnaround against the Blazers which finished off their series against Houston in six games and ended last Friday so they have a big edge in time off. Additionally, that last second win in Game Six would have been tough to get over from had Portland had to play shortly thereafter so it will not be in a letdown spot. While the Spurs owned the best record in the NBA, Portland actually matches up well as the advantages that Houston had against the Blazers, they now have against San Antonio. San Antonio does not draw many fouls nor do they focus on offensive rebounds. If the Blazers want to keep the tempo high they should be able to push more easily against the Spurs than they did against the Rockets. San Antonio proved vulnerable at times against a Dallas team with similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers as Portland, failing to achieve peak play until a dominant performance in the final game. We saw the Spurs barely hold on against Dallas in Game One while Portland was able to win in Houston in Game One and it can use that confidence here. The Blazers have played well the last couple years against the Spurs and they come in riding a 6-1 ATS run in their last seven road games while the Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against winning teams. 10* (707) Portland Trailblazers |
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05-06-14 | Chicago Blackhawks v. Minnesota Wild +120 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 120 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
We took a chance with Minnesota in Game Two and after a goal in the early part of the second period to make it 2-1, the Wild looked like the momentum had shifted to that was not the case. They looked tired and often times disinterested in playing so a shift home is just what this team needs to try and get back in the series. Minnesota lost the first two games in Colorado in the first round and then went on to win four of the last five games to take the series. The opponent is definitely stronger this time around but I feel this is a good spot for Minnesota to climb back into it. The Wild need to get some scoring from their top lines as it has been nonexistent and after taking a combined six shots in the first and third periods on Sunday, the Wild have to be more aggressive. Home ice has been big for Minnesota as they went 26-15 at home during the regular season while going 6-1 in its last seven home games. Meanwhile Chicago is just 2-9 in its last 11 road games and going back into the regular season, it lost the final two meetings played in Minnesota. Can the Wild win the series? At this point it seems unlikely but in order to have any chance, they need to take this must win game and avoid falling behind 3-0. It happens tonight. 10* (22) Minnesota Wild |
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05-06-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
By now, everybody knows that the Nets dominated Miami during the regular season as they won all four meetings against Miami. Were they the better team or were they simply fortunate? It is definitely the latter in my opinion as they were able to come up with huge plays in crunch-time which equaled three one-point wins and one double-overtime victory. Obviously all of those games could have gone the other way and Miami will be out to prove that is the case as this is a statement game for the Heat. And because of those regular season losses, they will have full attention here. Miami is coming off a sweep against Charlotte which was no surprise and the extra time off is a big benefit here considering that Brooklyn was taken to the brink as it needed a one point win on the road in Game Seven on Sunday to clinch the series. With the short turnaround, the Nets flew directly from Toronto to Miami so they are at a severe disadvantage because of that. The Heat's seven-day break between playoff series was spent conditioning and battling against one another as if it were preseason-training camp. Last season, the Heat had a long break after sweeping the Milwaukee Bucks and then lost to the Chicago Bulls in Game One of the second round and they will be using that as motivation here. Look for Miami to come out strong, set the tone and eventually pull away for the easy win in the series opener. 10* (706) Miami Heat |
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05-05-14 | Los Angeles Kings v. Anaheim Ducks -125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 35 h 48 m | Show |
We were seven seconds away from a win with Anaheim on Saturday but the Kings tied the game and eventually won in overtime. Los Angeles now has the home ice advantage in the series so its goal has been met now it is up to the Ducks to avoid going on the road two games down and evening up this series on Monday. Anaheim is favored slightly more than it was in Game One and I feel it could be favored by a lot more in what is already considered a must win game. The Ducks had their five game home winning streak snapped on Saturday but with a 32-13 record at home, they still have a significant edge. The power play once again was an edge for the Kings as they scored a man-up goal in their sixth straight game while they have not allowed a power play goal in four straight games. Los Angeles was one of the worst power play teams during the regular season at 15.1 percent and it will be up to Anaheim to get the Kings back into that poor play. The Ducks have won their last three home games following a loss in their last home game and they have been especially good at reversing a good effort from their opponent as they are 40-19 in their last 59 games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. Los Angeles has the momentum right now but Anaheim has desperation mode on its side and it evens up the series on Monday. 10* (18) Anaheim Ducks |
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05-05-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers OVER 183.5 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
Washington has had three extra days off in preparation for this series and while that could help the defense, I think the offense will benefit more as they should be highly energized against a likely tired Pacers defense. The Wizards went under in their final game against the Bulls but prior to that, they had gone over in six straight games. The Pacers meanwhile stayed under in their final two games against Atlanta as they really picked up the defensive intensity and going back, five of the last six games stayed under. As mentioned, the Pacers could be tired playing with just one day of rest and that will hurt the defense more than anything else. While we are getting a good number based on recent games, this total has a lot of value included in it and part of that is due to the regular season series. All three games stayed under the total and by a lot for that matter but at the same time, the lowest over/under in those three games was 185.5 so you can see the big drop here. Both teams went over in their first round series openers which makes since as it was a feeling out the opposition for both sides and I expect the same to happen here. As mentioned, the over is 6-1 in the last seven Wizards games and the over is 5-2 in the seven games Washington played following three or more days rest while the over is 5-2 in the last seven Pacers home games. 10* Over (701) Washington Wizards/(702) Indiana Pacers |
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05-04-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -6 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is going to be a very popular public play but I am not too concerned with that here as we are getting some decent value in my opinion despite the home team advantages which could make this line bigger. The Spurs have been at the disadvantage in this series at the betting window however as the Mavericks have covered each of the six games in the role of underdog, obviously winning three of those outright. This may come as a surprise to many after the Spurs had won the previous nine meetings in this series but here we are back in San Antonio for the deciding game. We played on the Spurs in Game Six and things were looking good entering the fourth quarter after they outscored Dallas by 11 points in the third period but the defense fell apart in the final 12 minutes as San Antonio allowed 37 points and gave up a pivotal 14-2 run that put the Mavericks in front for good. While the fourth quarter defense was bad, head coach Gregg Popovich said the first quarter defense was worse and arguably. Overall, the Spurs allowed 71 points on 56.3-percent shooting in two quarters in a close-out playoff game and that is something Popovich will certainly fix. San Antonio is 18-4 following a loss this season and while it has been laying a goose egg in the cover department of late, this is the time the Spurs show why they are the best team in the NBA still. 10* (550) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-04-14 | Minnesota Wild +177 v. Chicago Blackhawks | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
Chicago had a big advantage in Game One so the public was able to clean up on that opening square play as a big favorite but things are different now. The Blackhawks came into the series with three extra days of rest than Minnesota and it was catching the Wild at the perfect time as they were coming off a hard fought series with Colorado with the final game going into overtime which was won on the road. We can give Minnesota a mulligan there as it was in a horrible spot and we saw it as the Wild fell behind 2-0 after two periods before they finally woke up but Chicago was too strong and too rested for the Wild to keep up in the latter stage of the third period. The Blackhawks are the better team overall as they finished with nine more points than Minnesota during the regular season but these teams are not that far apart where Chicago is a 2-1 favorite. This was proven during the regular season as Chicago did not come close to being favored by this much so we are being presented with excellent value in what is also a much better spot for Minnesota. The Wild won the first meeting here and then lost the second one in a shootout so they know they can compete and win here. Despite the early struggles in Colorado, this is still a very good road team as the Wild closed the regular season by going 11-9 after a 6-15 start. Minnesota is 5-1 in its last six games after scoring two goals or less in its previous game and I expect a big performance on Sunday. 10* (11) Minnesota Wild |
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05-04-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -2.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Facing elimination, Brooklyn came out strong in Game Six as it never trailed, built a 26-point lead and held off a late rally to extend this series. Now the teams travel back to Toronto for Game Seven on Sunday and while the home court has not been totally dominating, I think it plays a big role in this deciding game. If for nothing else, we are seeing some exceptional value as the -2.5 lines that are available are the lowest we have seen this series and are half of what Toronto opened at in Game One. What has exactly changed to make this line this much shorter than the opener? There is a lot of talk about experience and the Nets certainly have more of it but I feel that is completely offset by Toronto playing this game at home as we saw what experience and a home floor can do with the Nets on Friday. The x-factor here is Kyle Lowry. He, along with DeMar DeRozan, have accounted for nearly 50 percent of their offense in this series but Lowry was just 4-16 for 11 points on Friday so it will be important for him to bounce back. We could also use a poor game from Deron Williams as he has scored 24, 22 and 23 points in the Nets' three victories in this series, while averaging just 12.7 ppg in their three losses. The Nets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win while Toronto is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 games following a loss. Neither franchise has won a Game Seven in the NBA Playoffs but that changes for Toronto on Sunday. 10* (546) Toronto Raptors |
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05-03-14 | MEMPHIS GM7 +8 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM7 | Top | 109-120 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 32 m | Show |
We won with Oklahoma City in Game six as the Thunder rolled to a 20-point win in a game that was never close from the start. That sets up Game Seven back home for Oklahoma City and even though it has a big home court edge, I expect this game to be a lot closer that the last. Let's not forget that the previous four games all went into overtime so for the most part, this has been a tightly contested series. Memphis was out of sorts on defense and its offense was arguably worse as it shot just 37.3 percent from the floor including 21.4 percent from long range on 3-14 shooting. Not helping matters was going just 19-28 from the free throw line while the Thunder took advantage of their own free throws by going 23-25 from the charity stripe. While we mentioned in the Game Six analysis that Oklahoma City has been awesome this season following a loss but Memphis has been even better as it is 25-9 straight up after a defeat so taking the points with the Grizzlies here is just gravy. They are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after a loss while going 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss and one of those instances was in this series after Memphis lost Game One by 14 points only to come back and win Game Two in overtime. Meanwhile, the Thunder are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points. Winning here is no easy task but Memphis has done it twice in this series so we won't see an intimidated team come Saturday. 10* (541) Memphis Grizzlies |
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05-03-14 | Los Angeles Kings v. Anaheim Ducks -130 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
The Kings treated us well in the latter part of their series with San Jose as they rolled at home in Game Six and then won as underdogs in Game Seven, becoming just the fourth team in NHL history to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series. Los Angeles now has two options, use that momentum and ride it into Anaheim or fall into a letdown in this series opener and while it is playing its best right now, I feel it is going to be the latter. It was a hard fought series that took a lot out of the Kings so coming back and playing a team that is the top seed in the Western Conference is going to be a challenge, at least in this first game. Anaheim closed out Dallas in six games and after the home team had won the first five games, the Ducks won in overtime in Dallas to clinch it. They have one of the best home ice advantages in hockey and they are hot right now with five straight wins at home. Anaheim got the best of Los Angeles during the regular season as it won four of the five meetings including the last four games. As far as the series odds go, it is basically even across the board which may be a surprise considering the Ducks have the home ice and with the Game One line higher than the series price, it is telling us they do in fact have the significant edge at home. The Kings winning this series because of better puck possession and a better goaltending edge is a great possibility but like the San Jose series, it doesn't get turned around until late and in this case, at least after Game One. The Ducks are 4-0 in their last four games playing on three or more days rest and that plays a big role here. 10* (8) Anaheim Ducks |
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05-02-14 | San Antonio Spurs -3 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
We are going against the trends here and banking on the Spurs putting together a dominating performance for the first time in this series. Coming into the playoffs, San Antonio had won eight straight meetings against the Mavericks and the majority of those were not close but now San Antonio is barely getting by. Down 2-1, the Spurs have fought back with two straight wins but they were close enough where Dallas was able to cover both and it has now covered all five games in this series. Going back, the Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games while the Spurs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games. Those records I feel are playing into this number as the last time these two teams met in Dallas, San Antonio was favored by 4.5 points and now it has dropped a point and a half since then. This is the spot where a top seed comes to play and while Dallas seems to have nothing left in tank, the Spurs look like they are just now getting comfortable and ready to send a knockout blow. They have found the way to beat Dallas with their solid pick-and-roll offense and it was in fine form in Game Five as the Spurs outscored Dallas 54-28 in the paint and on the night, San Antonio had five different players score over 15 points. Despite the cover struggles in this series, the Spurs have covered seven of the last 10 meetings in Dallas and going back, the Mavericks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. 10* (533) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-01-14 | Toronto Blue Jays +101 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 7-3 | Win | 101 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
While they are not big underdogs here, the Blue Jays are still on the plus side in this one as they look to salvage a game from this series and avoid the sweep. It has been a rough stretch for the blue Jays as they have dropped two straight and six of their last seven to fall three games under .500 overall. While Toronto looks to bounce back, so does Mark Buehrle from, his last outing, his worst start of the season. He allowed six runs on 12 hits in 5.1 innings against the Red Sox which came after allowing one run or less in his first four starts of the season. He has been awesome on the road, tossing three quality performances while posting a 0.40 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. In one start against the Royals last season, he tossed seven shutout innings. The Royals have won three in a row to move to two games over .500 on the season and Jeremy Guthrie gets the ball tonight. He has either been extremely solid or very below average through five starts as he has tossed two strong quality outings but has allowed four runs in each of his three other starts. Overall, he has a 4.22 ERA which isn't horrible by any stretch but a concern is the long ball as he has allowed five home runs and that is not ideal against a power team like Toronto which leads the American League with 32 dingers. Look for the Blue Jays grab the series finale tonight. 10* (961) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-01-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
This has been an incredible series. After Oklahoma City won the first game by 14 points, the last four games have been especially close, so close that they all went into overtime which is a new record for consecutive overtime games in a playoff series. For the Thunder to advance, they have to win here and then win back home which has been no easy feat as the Grizzlies have won the last two games played in Oklahoma City. Slow starts have killed the Thunder as they have had to rally numerous times just to force the extra session including Game Five where they had to rally from a 20-point deficit and the biggest lead they had the entire game was just one point. The offense has had trouble against the Memphis defense as the Thunder are shooting just 39.7 percent from the floor and while Kevin Durant is averaging 28.5 ppg in the series, his offensive efficiency has been horrid. They need to have better ball distribution which I mentioned on Saturday when we took the Thunder and it worked as Reggie Jackson came though by scoring 32 points and they need another effort from someone other than Durant or Russell Westbrook. Oklahoma City has won two of the four games played in Memphis this season and with their backs squarely against the wall, the Thunder are forced to make it one more. They are 16-9 this season following a loss while going 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. Oklahoma City pulls away to love another day. 10* (525) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-01-14 | Montreal Canadiens +166 v. Boston Bruins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 166 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
One of the biggest rivalries in hockey continues on Thursday as the Canadiens and Bruins meet in the playoffs for a record 34th time and while the masses are picking the Bruins to take this series without much trouble, I expect it to be a closely contested series therefore I think any big underdog price is worth looking at. Montreal and Boston had little problems in their first round series so it has been a while since either team has taken the ice so there is no rest advantage either way. The recent history between these two teams has shown the Canadiens have an ability to goad the Bruins into a lack of discipline, something that could work better on enemy turf than if Montreal was starting the series at home. Montreal won three of the four regular season meetings against Boston including both on the road so there is no reason to think the Canadiens cannot steal an early lead in this series and grab home ice in doing so. The Canadiens get a boost as forward Travis Moen hasn't played in a game since the Canadiens beat the Bruins 2-1 in a shootout March 24, a victory which snapped Boston's 12-game winning streak but he returns to the ice tonight. While the Bruins seem to have the goalie edge, Tuukka Rask has only three regulation time wins in 15 career meetings with Montreal. He allowed only five goals in their four meetings this season, but had only one win and was pulled from one game after two first-period goals. Going back, the Canadiens have won four straight meetings in Boston and are 8-2 over their last 10 road games and at this price, they are a very live underdog tonight. 10* (1) Montreal Canadiens |
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04-30-14 | Los Angeles Kings +129 v. San Jose Sharks | Top | 5-1 | Win | 129 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
San Jose has put itself in a position that three other teams have failed at and that is winning the first three games of an NHL playoff series only to go on and lose it. The Sharks seemed to have this series locked up as they dominated the Kings the first two games and then won in overtime in Game Three. Los Angeles did not sit down however as it has rolled in the last three games by a combined score of 13-4. What this reversal has done in put the pressure on San Jose and while it has a decisive home ice advantage, the Kings come in with the confidence of knowing they can win there. San Jose likely will be without its No. 1 defenseman, Marc-Edouard Vlasic , who missed Game Six, and the Sharks did not announce their starting goalie. Alex Stalock was the starter in Game Six after they had yanked starter Antti Niemi in Games Four and Five. Sharks coach Todd McLellan didn't disclose who his starting goalie and his message to both Stalock and Niemi on Tuesday was the same, be ready. That is not a good thing heading into the deciding game especially when Jonathan Quick is once again playing solid after a poor start in the series. The Kings are 10-3 in their last 13 games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game while the Sharks are 3-7 in their last 10 games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. The public money is all over San Jose and we will gladly grab the undervalued Kings at a premium price. 10* (83) Los Angeles Kings |
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04-30-14 | Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 214 | Top | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
We won with the Wizards/Bulls under last night and we are playing this one for a lot of the same reasons and it is considered even more of a contrarian play. This has quietly been one of the best playoff series as three of the four games have gone into overtime and that certainly has not helped the under. All four games of this series have gone over the total and going back to the regular season and last year, 11 straight meetings have surpassed the total. The over/under has stayed pretty consistent though as the linesmakers know they cannot set this one very much higher as it is at a very high number already. We played the under in Game Three and that obviously did not come through but it is based on the contrarian aspect as well as what was stated in the other analysis. These were two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA during the regular season and while it has carried over, the shooting has been average. Portland has shot 46.4 percent from the floor while Houston has shot 43.8 percent from the floor in the first four games so it has been about pace, and overtime, and as long as the shooting percentages remain poor, this definitely has a chance of busting the over streak. With Houston trailing 3-1 in this series and now playing back home in a must win situation, this is the game where the defensive effort is picked up. When breaking down by quarter, the magic number is 54 which is the average per quarter to hit the total and through the first four games, the under is 8-6-2 for quarters that have stayed below the 54-point plateau so there have been more lower scoring periods than higher scoring ones which is the ultimate goal. 10* Under (519) Portland Trailblazers/(520) Houston Rockets |
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04-29-14 | GOLDEN STATE GM5 v. LA CLIPPERS GM5 -5.5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
With all of the controversy surrounding their owner, the Clippers came out flat in Game Four, fell behind by as many as 24 points and now have to head home in search of their old winning ways. The good news is that two of the last three games are at home where Los Angeles is 35-8 on the season and while this isn't considered a true must win game just yet, it is as close as you can get. We played on Golden St. in Game Four with the thinking that Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson would bounce back from a poor shooting game in the previous contest and that proved correct as they went a combined 10-22 from long range and as a team, Golden St. shot 55.4 percent from the floor. While the Warriors may have the momentum now, the Clippers will put the distractions aside and come out with a big effort in Game Five. Los Angeles has been one of the best bounceback teams in the NBA this year as it is 20-6 straight up and 19-7 ATS following a loss which includes going 7-1 following a double-digit loss, winning those games by an average of 14.7 ppg. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (512) Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-29-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 184 | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
In what was expected to be a low scoring series, the first four games between Washington and Chicago have all gone over the total. We have seen the over/under steadily rise from the opening game and while we are getting roughly the same number as in Game Four, it is still on the value side and we are able to get a number a little bit higher. The key here is the Chicago defense which has not looked like the typical Chicago defense as it has allowed at least 97 points in each game, although one of those did go into overtime. The Bulls allowed 91.8 ppg during the regular season which was the fewest in the league and their 43 percent shooting allowed was second best. They have allowed Washington to shoot 44.7 percent which isn't bad but the first two games as home were not good. The good thing is that Chicago has gotten progressively better in each game and we will see a big bounceback at home after allowing the Wizards to shoot 48.7 percent in those first two games in Chicago. The Bulls have gone under the total in 20 of 32 games when they are favored at home and while Washington has been more of an over team throughout the season, I fully expect the home team to dictate the pace and clamp down on defense to keep this series alive. 10* Under (507) Washington Wizards/(508) Chicago Bulls |
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04-29-14 | NY Rangers -101 v. Philadelphia Flyers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The Rangers enter Game Six with a 3-2 lead in this series and while the series trend nor recent history is on their side, I expect them to close out the Flyers tonight. They have taken control of the series on three different occasions now but in the previous two, New York could not extend it as it lost both games following a win. The Rangers have been an exceptional road team all season long though as they are 26-17 and this after 2-6 start on the highway so they have won 24 of their last 35 road games. Going back, this is not a good situation for them as dating back to 2009, the previous 11 times the Rangers have won a game to take a series lead, they have lost the next game and they haven't won a playoff series in less than seven games in the past six seasons. Certainly that is not ideal but there is some positive history as in NHL history there have been 227 best-of-seven playoff series tied 2-2, with the winner of Game five going on to take the series in 180 of those (79.3 percent) according to Elias Sport Bureau. The Flyers have been solid at home and they have been the team that has been able to bounce back in this series so far but I believe that comes to an end tonight. The Flyers are 3-10 in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (77) New York Rangers |
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04-28-14 | San Jose Sharks v. Los Angeles Kings -109 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
While we cannot say that the Kings have regained control of this series, they have certainly grabbed some momentum. Los Angeles could have tossed in the towel after getting blown out the first two games and then suffering a home overtime loss in Game Three but it responded with a big win at home in Game Four and then produced a road shutout last time out and it is that defensive play that can eventually send this series to seven games. The Kings kept the Sharks scoring chances to a minimum and when there was a breakdown Jonathan Quick saved the Kings as he made 30 saves for his eighth career playoff shutout. Now back home, the confidence is back for the team as a whole and I expect a big effort from this team that is playoff experienced including some big wins the last two seasons when their backs were against the wall. This includes a 2-1 victory in Game Seven of the Western Conference Semifinals last season against the Sharks. The Kings are 13-4 in their last 17 games following a win and after the home win in Game Four, they are 9-1 the last 10 home meetings in this series. The Sharks could be without key defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who didn't practice Sunday after getting injured in the first period of Game Five and that would be a big absence. Look for the momentum to stay alive for at least one more night. 10* (74) Los Angeles Kings |
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04-28-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
As bad as Indiana has looked at times in this series, it is in good position as it has regained the home court advantage following the victory in Atlanta on Saturday. The Pacers have looked horrible in two of the four games and while they didn't look as bad in Game Four, it was far from a strong effort. Back home, I expect the Pacers make a statement and seize control of this series as this is the perfect opportunity to reestablish themselves as the top team in the Eastern Conference. Lose tonight and they'll go back to Atlanta, where the Pacers have won only three times since December 2006, facing elimination. It has been more than a month since the Pacers starters have strung together consecutive wins and for a top seed, that is certainly a troublesome statement but once they have forced upon themselves with erratic play. The fact of the matter is that Indiana is 36-7 at home despite some recent struggles and while covering has been few and far between, the last game here resulted in a Pacers runaway and we are actually getting a better number this time around. While the Hawks are the only team in the league to win at Indiana twice this season, they are 13 games under .500 on the road and if they are not hitting from long range, which did not happen in the last game here, they have no chance and expect to see the lockdown Indiana defense to again do a great job on the perimeter. 10* (504) Indiana Pacers |
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04-27-14 | Anaheim Ducks +112 v. Dallas Stars | Top | 5-4 | Win | 112 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The home team has owned this series so far but I think that comes to an end on Sunday. Anaheim finished the regular season with 116 points, the most in the Western Conference and while its home ice advantage was one of the best in the NHL, the Ducks 25 road wins were tied for second most in the league. Dallas was solid at home during the regular season but at 23-18, it does not have a clear home edge despite winning the first two home games in this series without much of a problem. The Ducks racked up four power play goals in Game Five and that has been a weakness on the other side as the Stars have scored on only two of 22 power-play opportunities in this series including going 0-13 the last three games. Rebounding will be tough as the Stars are 0-5 in their last five games after allowing five goals or more in their previous game while the Ducks are 13-4 in their last 17 games when their opponent allows five goals or more in their previous game. Anaheim will use the past as a motivator as last season, it held a 3-2 advantage in the first round against Detroit but lost Game Six on the road and eventually lost the series. History will not repeat itself as the best team in the conference advances with a win tonight. 10* (65) Anaheim Ducks |
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04-27-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +2 | Top | 97-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
The Clippers nearly blew an 18-point lead in Game Three but were able to hold on and pullout the two-point win on Thursday. Los Angeles now has the series lead at 2-1 which makes this a must win for the Warriors and I expect them to get it done. They were able to stay within reach in Game Three despite Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson going a combined 5-19 from long range and the duo tends to respond following poor efforts in their last game. It was a disappointing loss for Golden St. which took over home court after winning one game in Los Angeles but it can again seize control of home court with a win here. The home team had won seven straight in this series prior to the playoffs and going back, the host is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings while the Clippers have covered just once in the last six meetings in Golden St. As mentioned in Thursday's analysis, the Warriors are a rare home underdog and they are now 2-0-1 ATS on the season in this role. They have been solid underdogs all season, going 9-3 ATS as underdogs of fewer than six points and following a loss, Golden St. is 23-9 on the year. 10* (756) Golden St. Warriors |
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04-25-14 | Houston Rockets v. Portland Trailblazers UNDER 216 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
You will hear me talk about the bounce angle, or the zig zag, during the NBA playoffs and while it relates a lot to sides, it has become a lot more powerful with totals as we can catch some excellent value along the way. I feel that is the case here for Game Three between Houston and Portland as we are seeing the total inch up from the first two contests. This is a move we often see as when games go over or under, the next game will take that into account to avoid the public bet of a reoccurrence. And the reoccurrence here is going to have the public all over the over once again. Not only have the first two games of this series gone over but going back to the regular season, all six meeting have surpassed the number. Going back even further, the last nine meetings have gone over the total so you know where the public will be lined up on Friday. These were two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA during the regular season and while it has carried over, the shooting has been average. Portland has shot 45.3 percent from the floor while Houston has shot 42.1 percent from the floor in the first two games so it has been about pace and as long as the shooting percentages remain poor, we should be fine. Going even further contrarian, Portland has gone over the total in five straight games going back to the regular season so that adds some more value. Look for the over streak to be broken on Friday. 10* Under (743) Houston Rockets/(744) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-25-14 | NY Rangers v. Philadelphia Flyers -110 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
After splitting the first two games of this series in New York, the Flyers were feeling pretty good about having home ice but a 4-1 loss on Tuesday have the advantage back to the Rangers and now they fins themselves in a must win game on Friday. We played Detroit last night in a similar must win spot but it fell in overtime but we will come back tonight with the similar angle. Philadelphia has been very strong at home this season but it is 1-4 in its last five home games including two straight losses but that works in our favor. The Flyers are 22-11 in their last 33 home games after a very poor start to the season and going back, they are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss of three or more goals. The best news for tonight is the return of goalie Steve Mason who has been out for the last couple weeks and will be making his first start since April 12th. Mason is 33-18-7 with a 2.50 GAA and .917 save percentage. The Rangers have been a solid road team all season but despite the win on Tuesday, they have had their share of problems against the better teams as they are 9-21 in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning home record. Prior to the Game Three loss, the Flyers had won both regular season home meetings and we will see them go back to New York with the series tied. 10* (32) Philadelphia Flyers |
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04-24-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors +1.5 | Top | 98-96 | Loss | -103 | 35 h 60 m | Show |
Many may question the mindset of Golden St. after it suffered a 40-point loss to the Clippers in Game Two. I think the Warriors will be just fine as they achieved their goal of splitting the first two games in Los Angeles after winning Game One which brought the home court edge to Golden St. so coming out flat in Game Two was not out of the question. The linesmakers have made an adjustment in the venue switch in my opinion as the Clippers were favored by eight points at home and are now the road favorites here and I feel it is too much of an overadjustment. Golden St. had a rough stretch in the middle of the season at home that concluded in February with a 16-point loss against Charlotte but since then, it has gotten some of its swagger back as it has gone 13-5 over its last 18 games at home which isn't out of this world but it dwarfs its 9-8 home stretch just prior to that. The Clippers have been no slouches on the road after an average start as they are 9-3 in their last 12 games on the highway and while that includes going 4-1-1 ATS as road favorites, they were favorites against non-playoff teams only. The Warriors have been a great bounceback team coming off poor efforts. They are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game while going 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points including a 6-1-21 ATS record this season. The home team won all four meetings during the regular season and this is just the third time Golden St. has been a home underdog all season, going 1-0-1 ATS the first two times. 10* (738) Golden St. Warriors |
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04-24-14 | Boston Bruins v. Detroit Red Wings +130 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
After winning the opener of this series, Detroit has dropped the last two games and now finds its back against the wall. A loss here, and the Red Wings will be pinned way back with little hope making this the biggest game of the season. The offense has been able to do nothing as the Red Wings have two goals in three games, their lowest-scoring start to a postseason since 1945 so that is certainly saying something. They have looked out of sync but it isn't like they can't play with the Bruins because let's not forget that Detroit won three of four in the regular season before winning Game One. Instead of taking advantage of newly found home ice in Game Three, the Red Wings are tentative and surprisingly nervous and they got into a hole that they could not get out of. I expect coach Mike Babcock, a master motivator, to have his team ready for tonight and in a much better place. The big difference has been the power play where Detroit is 0-7 the last two games while Boston has converted on three of seven chances over the two games. This is the game where Detroit needs to come out quick and set the tone and we will bank on it doing so at a very solid price on top of it. Despite the Game Three win, the Bruins are 1-5 in their last six road games while the Red Wings are 64-31-2 in their last 97 games following a loss of three or more goals. 10* (26) Detroit Red Wings |
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04-23-14 | St. Louis Blues +135 v. Chicago Blackhawks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
After opening a 2-0 lead in this series, the Blues were unable to score despite taking 34 shots in Game Three and they are now a loss away of going back home tied. It is a similar situation from last year that St. Louis wants to avoid as it won the first two games against Los Angeles only to go on and lose the next four games. The Blues are getting a better number here than they did in Game Three yet despite the higher favorite line, the public is lining up behind the Blackhawks as they appear to have a big home ice advantage. Not so fast though. St. Louis' 24 road wins during the regular season were fourth most in the NHL so winning here is far from out of the question and it was able to do it once during the regular season. Granted, the Blues have now dropped four straight road games but they had won seven of their previous nine before this and with two evenly matched teams, the value is on their side. Chicago certainly does not want to go back to St. Louis down 3-1 but I expect the Blues to come out with greater energy tonight and they were actually the better team for the majority of Game Three despite the shutout loss. The Blues are 42-20 in their last 62 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game while the Blackhawks are 2-5 in their last seven games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (21) St. Louis Blues |
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04-23-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 198 | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
You will hear me talk about the bounce angle, or the zig zag, during the NBA playoffs and while it relates a lot to sides, it has become a lot more powerful with totals as we can catch some excellent value along the way. Dallas and San Antonio square off tonight for Game Two and the Mavericks still have to be hurting from blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead as the Spurs went on a 14-0 run to take the opener. That game stayed well below the total, by 28 points to be exact, and because of that we are catching a great number in Game Two. The first game total closed at 203 and for tonight, we are seeing a lot of 198 totals out there so we can use the bounce angle to our advantage. This is a move we often see as when games go over or under, the next game will take that into account to avoid the public bet of a recurrence. While this is a purely situational theory, the matchup is on our side as well. Three of the four regular season meetings went over the total and the one game that did stay under, enough points were scored to surpass what we are given tonight. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA and during the regular season, the Spurs and Mavericks ranked second and fourth in shooting percentage respectively and that was not on display in Game One but we should see a significant improvement tonight. Rest is key as Dallas is 8-0 to the over in its last eight games playing with two days rest while the Spurs are 7-2 to the over in their last nine games playing with two days rest. 10* Over (729) Dallas Mavericks/(730) San Antonio Spurs |
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04-23-14 | Houston Astros +139 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
The Astros have won the first two games of this series and while many will be backing the Mariners to avoid the sweep, I am not one of them. Seattle has lost eight straight games as the offense has done nothing and that should continue Wednesday afternoon. Jarred Cosart is coming off the worst start of his young career and it was ugly. He lasted just one-third of an inning against the A's as he allowed seven runs and while he gave up only three hits, two were home runs in addition to issuing four walks. He came into that game with a career ERA of 2.42 through his first 13 start so we will chalk that one up as an aberration. He tossed a quality outing in his last start following a poor performance and I expect the same here. Despite the rough time in Oakland, his road ERA is still a very solid 2.81 in nine starts and now he heads to pitcher friendly Safeco Field. The Mariners counter with Chris Young who is making just his third start since 2012. His Seattle debut was great as he tossed six shutout innings against Oakland but last time out, he was hit hard, allowing four runs on seven hits and three walks in just three innings. The comeback story is nice but he cannot be trusted quite yet, especially at this price. 10* (967) Houston Astros |
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04-22-14 | San Jose Sharks v. Los Angeles Kings -125 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
We played on Los Angeles on Sunday and that clearly was a horrible call although things were looking good early for the Kings as they built a 2-0 only to get outscored 7-0 the rest of the way. I expected a rebound from Kings goalie Jonathan Quick after Game One when he allowed five goals before getting pulled but things only got worse in Game Two although his save percentage was actually better in the second game, Still, a return home should spark him and Los Angeles knows this is now a must win game or the series is toast. As mentioned, the home team has controlled this series since last year, winning 13 of the last 14 meetings and Los Angeles is 10-0-1 in the last 11 home meetings with the Sharks. The Kings were in the same spot last year after two road losses in St. Louis to open a playoff run that stretched all the way to their second straight Western Conference finals. They went on to win four straight games against the Blues and they won eight straight playoff games at home before losing to Chicago in the final home playoff game. Look for the Kings to keep the series alive with a win tonight. 10* (16) Los Angeles Kings |
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04-22-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7 | Top | 85-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The Pacers were one of five higher seeds to lose the first game of their series and so far the Clippers bounced back to win Game Two, and handily, with the four remaining teams still to play. Those five teams are already in a hole as they have lost home court advantage and losing the second game would be a disaster for the rest of them including Indiana which has really fallen on some hard times, Getting booed on their home floor cannot have felt very good and if there is any character left for this team, we will see it tonight. We are actually laying a shorter price than we did in Game One and with Atlanta having now covered six straight games, this one fall right into our wheelhouse. Indiana was outscored by eight points at the free throw line in Game One, which was the difference in the final score, and this was similar to the Memphis/Oklahoma City game where the Grizzlies were outscored by 10 points from the line in the opener but made that up in the second game. I expect a similar result here and that is only one factor that the Pacers should turn around tonight. The Hawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and while the Pacers ATS run has been dismal, I expect a big rebound on Tuesday night. 10* (722) Indiana Pacers |
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04-21-14 | Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Oklahoma City rolled in Game One of this series on Saturday as it won by 14 points but look for Memphis to play a much better game tonight. The Grizzlies never led, trailed by as many as 25 points and shot just 36.3 percent from the floor. The big difference however was at the free throw line as Memphis was just 18-31 while the Thunder went 28-32 from the charity stripe. The Grizzlies came into this series riding a five-game winning streak and they were one of the best teams in the league after a slow start as they went 35-13 over their last 48 games of the regular season and bouncing back from losses was the key. After a five-game losing streak in mid-December, Memphis won 16 of its last 18 games following a loss covering 13 of those games. This included a 6-1 ATS mark as underdogs with six of those being outright wins. This sets up similar to last season, in two different instances. Memphis lost Game One against the Clippers by 11 points but played much better in Game Two, losing by just a bucket before going on to win the next four games. In the second round against Oklahoma City, the Grizzlies lost the first game and then went on to win four straight. Memphis has covered four of its last five games following a double-digit loss and that run continues tonight. 10* (717) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-21-14 | Colorado Avalanche v. Minnesota Wild -118 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Minnesota is in a 0-2 hole in this series so a shift back home is just what it needs. The law of averages are not on the side of Wild but a 3-0 deficit would be even worse and I expect them to take advantage of being back in Minnesota to at least keep them in the series. The Wild blew a two-goal lead in the third period in Game One and eventually lost in overtime and you could tell that loss carries over into Game Two. The Wild finished 26-15 at Xcel Energy Center this season, the seventh-best home record in the league and they are 8-3 in their last 11 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Colorado has won six of the seven meetings this season including both visits to Minnesota by two goals each so while the Avalanche may seem to have a matchup advantage, this one will be dictated on who wants it more. Wild head coach Mike Yeo says his team has played well enough to be in both of the first two games of the series and they actually outshot Colorado in each of those first two games. Minnesota is 5-1 in its last six games after scoring two goals or less in its previous game. 10* (4) Minnesota Wild |
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04-20-14 | Los Angeles Kings +126 v. San Jose Sharks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
San Jose made Game One look way too easy and I expect a much different result tonight. Kings goalie Jonathan Quick was pulled after a rough first two periods, the Kings fell behind by five goals in the second period and they couldn't get anything past Sharks goalie Antti Niemi until it was too late. Bad starts have been few for Quick and he has bounced back in the past as he has allowed four goals or more on six other occasions and the Kings have rebounded to win the last five follow up games as Quick allowed a total of five goals in those five games. It is no secret home ice has played a vital role in this series as the home team won all seven games in last year's Western Conference Semifinals and then won five of six games this regular season before San Jose added to that total on Thursday. The lone exception was a Los Angeles win here in January so the Kings know they can knot this series up before heading home. The Kings are 17-8 in their last 25 games following a loss of three or more goals and their 23 road wins are tied for fifth most in the NHL as they add to that tonight with a big bounceback victory. 10* (83) Los Angeles Kings |
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04-20-14 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -4.5 | Top | 102-93 | Loss | -103 | 52 h 40 m | Show |
Chicago got a pretty favorable draw in the postseason and it came about by losing its final regular season game of the season at Charlotte. The Bulls dropped to the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference which means a series against Washington instead of Brooklyn and possible date with Indiana instead of Miami and both of those are much favorable matchups. Chicago is a dangerous team with its stifling defense and even though Washington won the regular season series 2-1, the majority of the Wizards players have no playoff experience. Washington was definitely a pleasant surprise this season but it finished only six games over .500 and even worse, it went 4-11 against other playoff teams since the All-Star break. Conversely, the Bulls have been one of the best team in the league even without superstar Derrick Rose. The Bulls, after their 12-18 start, finished 36-16, the best record in the Eastern Conference over that period. While many teams would fear playing Indiana or Miami, it is those teams that should fear playing the Bulls. The last thing Chicago wants is to give the home floor to Washington so it has to get out of town with a sweep which I fully expect. The Bulls are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss while the Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record. Chicago won 22 of its 30 games when favored at home and with a substantial postseason experience edge, its gets out to a quick start in this series. 10* (714) Chicago Bulls |
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04-20-14 | Dallas Mavericks +9 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
The Spurs have dominated the Mavericks the last two seasons, winning all eight regular season meetings while covering six of those including three of four this season. That is a big reason this is the biggest line Dallas has seen this season against San Antonio and by a big margin for that matter. The first two games in San Antonio, the Spurs were favored by 5.5 and 6.5 points and while one was a blowout, the Mavericks covered the other matchup. Dallas has been solid on the road with a 23-18 record and it has covered six of its last seven on the highway, winning six of those outright with the only loss coming by just a single point in the season finale at Memphis in overtime. The Spurs once again had a spectacular season but they went just 3-3 down the stretch not counting the regular season finale when they rested their starters. San Antonio has had home court advantage numerous times over the years but surprisingly, it has struggled to get out of the first two games with two wins especially when the Spurs enter the postseason not on a winning streak like it did in 2012 when it came into the playoffs on a 10-game winning streak. Dallas is 11-5 ATS this season as an underdog of four or more points while going a perfect 2-0 ATS when getting eight or more points. That included an outright win in Indiana and a narrow loss in Miami. Additionally, the Mavericks are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (709) Dallas Mavericks |
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04-19-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -7.5 | Top | 101-93 | Loss | -104 | 33 h 46 m | Show |
With everyone down on Indiana, this is a statement game for the Pacers. They backed into the top seed as Miami pretty much gave up the number one seed by resting starters down the stretch but Indiana likely would have gotten the top seed anyway. We won with Indiana in its second to last game against the Thunder and that was a big win as it halted a 3-8 stretch and then a season ending win over Orlando provides them some much needed momentum heading into the postseason. One of those losses during that stretch came at home against Atlanta where the Pacers lost by 19 points and the game was not even that close as they never led and trailed by as many as 35 points. Now it is payback time. The Hawks finished strong as they went 6-2 over their last eight games and they have won three straight on the highway but this is now a whole different ballgame. Overall, Atlanta is 14-27 on the road which is the worst road record of all teams that are in the postseason and while it went 6-0 as a road favorite, it went just 8-26 as a road underdog. The Hawks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while Indiana is a very solid 8-2 ATS as a favorite between 6 and 8.5 points. This is rematch of the first round series from a season ago in which the Pacers won 4-2 and that included a 17-point win in Game One and I expect more of the same this year in the opener. 10* (706) Indiana Pacers |
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04-19-14 | Atlanta Braves v. New York Mets +115 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
We are getting some good value with the Mets who many will say are playing over their heads right now but I like the way this team has gelled together early in the season. I also like the fact that Bartolo Colon was rocked in his last start and that sets up a great bounceback opportunity. He allowed nine runs, including four home runs, on 11 hits in five innings at Los Angeles against the Angels, and unfortunately we were on the wrong side of that one. He opened the season with two straight quality outings so I expect a return to that form on Saturday and going back to 2012, he has allowed six r more runs on four other occasions and rebounded with a quality outing next time out. The Braves are off to an expected great start but with that comes big lines and some overvalued numbers on the road. Signing Ervin Santana late has already paid off as he has rewarded Atlanta with two quality outings in two starts, posting a 0.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over 14 innings to go along with a 17:2 K:BB ratio. I don't expect him to keep this up however and while he has dominated the Mets once already this year, the second time seeing him will only aid them. The Mets are 5-0 in their last five games against right-handed starters. 10* (958) New York Mets |
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04-19-14 | Columbus Blue Jackets +170 v. Pittsburgh Penguins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 170 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
It's no secret that Pittsburgh has owned Columbus of late as it won the last game of last season then went on to win all five regular season games before winning Game One of this series on Wednesday. After closing the regular season with two losses, it was a much needed win to get things going the right way and while we played on the Penguins in that opener, we will be going against them here and a big reason is having two days off after that win as momentum is hurt. Columbus had Pittsburgh down 3-1 before the Penguins stormed back with three unanswered goals so while it blew a golden opportunity, it knows it can hang around and win even though winning has not been an option of late. The Blue Jackets are 7-3 in their last 10 road games going back to the regular season and they are an even .500 on the highway overall which is pretty good and makes this number very inviting as it is usually reserved for teams that have a big disadvantage on the road. A big reason we played the Penguins in that first game was because it came in on a losing streak but knew they had the edge due to their dominance of Columbus but with that losing streak now gone, so it the desperation. Look for the Blue Jackets to snap that losing skid and take over home ice in this series and while it may not be enough to win it overall, heading back home with confidence is a big goal. 10* (73) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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04-19-14 | Baltimore Orioles +105 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
Baltimore is off to a pretty average start but things have been better of late following a 1-4 start to the season. Boston meanwhile has been unable to get anything going as it cannot establish any sort of significant winning streak. Bud Norris was a bust last year for the Orioles when they acquired him from Houston for a playoff push but he showed his moments and he is back in the rotation this season. He had a poor opening start against Detroit but bounced back against Toronto as he tossed seven shutout innings and I expect him to carry that over into Boston. He faced the Red Sox once last season while with Baltimore and pitched very well and was two outs short of a quality outing which would have been his second of the season as he posted one while still with the Astros. The Orioles are 5-1 in Norris' last six starts against teams with a losing record. The Red Sox counter with Felix Doubront who is also coming off a quality outing in his last start after a horrible start against Texas in his previous outing. We played against him against the Rangers in that game and we are going against him again as he has not been able to consistently put together quality starts. Through three starts, he now sits at 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.77 WHIP and 8/7 K/BB ratio and those are number we will gladly go against. 10* (969) Baltimore Orioles |
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04-19-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -2.5 | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
Game One of any NBA Playoff series is important for the home team as a loss gives the home court edge to the opponent and we are getting a very good price with Toronto in this opening game. The Raptors won the Atlantic Division by four games over Brooklyn and locked down the number three seed in the Eastern Conference and they hope to take advantage of a Nets teams that struggled down the stretch of the regular season, losing four of their last five games. Toronto finished 26-15 at home which was just the fifth best home record in the Eastern Conference but after a 3-7 start, the Raptors went 23-8 down the stretch at home. Brooklyn went 16-25 on the road which is the second worst road record of all playoff teams and it wasn't exactly competitive down the stretch, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and overall they won just seven of 23 games when listed as road underdogs. Even worst, Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS this season as an underdog of fewer than four points. The Raptors success can be attributed to not putting together big losing skids and they have won 12 of their last 14 games following a loss while going back, they are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss. This has been a close series with each team winning two games including one each on the opponents home floor but the biggest blowout came here in the second meeting with the Raptors winning by 16 points. 10* (702) Toronto Raptors |
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04-18-14 | Montreal Canadiens v. Tampa Bay Lightning -108 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Montreal cooled off the Lightning in Game One as it snapped their four-game wining streak to take the lead in the series. Tampa Bay had won eight of its previous 11 home games and now sits at 25-17 at home on the season and overall it is still riding a solid run. The Lightning are 12-6 over their last 18 games following a five-game losing streak in early March and now I feel they are in good shape with that first game out of the way. Tampa Bay had nine players making their postseason debut and they showed nerves at times, turning the puck over for plays that resulted in goals for the Canadiens. The Lightning have been solid coming off a poor defensive effort as they are 5-1 in their last six games after allowing five goals or more in their previous game. Montreal has now won two straight games, both coming in overtime. The Canadiens continue to have issues with the power play however as they are 0 for 25 over the last nine games and they are now 0 for 15 in five meetings with Tampa Bay this season. That is bad news against Tampa Bay that has been solid against the power play over their last few games, allowing just three goals in its last 23 penalty kill opportunities. Look for Tampa Bay to bounce back and even the series up. 10* (68) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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04-17-14 | CHICAGO GM1 v. ST. LOUIS GM1 -119 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
St. Louis picked the wrong time to put up its longest losing streak in four years but now it has to fight out of it and regain some of the positive momentum that it has early in the season. The Blues lost their sixth straight game on Sunday to close the regular season and the offense has been in a funk going back even further. They have scored two goals or less in nine straight games and while this may not seem like the matchup to break out of that, it is actually in a good spot. The Blackhawks have allowed 32 goals over their last nine games as they come in with very little momentum as well, losing two straight and putting up a 4-5 record in that nine-game stretch. While the Blues rough stretch has seen some very poor play, they haven't been helped by a rash of injuries that they suffered in those closing games. The good news is that David Backes and TJ Oshie will be back for Game One and being healthy ids huge for this team as St. Louis ranked third in the NHL in goals against, second in penalty killing and fifth in five-on-five play. The best news is that the Blues had three days off to not only get healthy but to get refreshed from the end to the regular season and put it behind them. The Blackhawks are 1-7 in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Blues are 48-18 in their last 66 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (60) St. Louis Blues |
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04-17-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Philadelphia Phillies +120 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 120 | 2 h 60 m | Show |
The Phillies have lost the first two games of this series and both were tough defeats. They lost Monday after rallying with five runs in the bottom of the eighth inning only to lose on a grand slam in the top of the ninth. Last night, they lost 1-0 as Cliff Lee was outpitched by Julio Teheran with the difference being one pitch, a home run by Evan Gattis. Philadelphia looks to hake those losses off on Thursday afternoon behind A.J. Burnett who has been pretty average thus far in his first year with the Phillies. He has a 3.94 ERA and 1.94 WHIP through three starts as his command has been off and that can be attributed to being diagnosed with a hernia but it is not severe and he has had extra rest heading into this one. The Braves have won five straight games to improve to 10-4, the second best record in baseball, hence the road favorite line here. Alex Wood has gotten off to a great start as he has a 1.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through three starts. The jury is still out on Wood as he was average last season in limited action and Atlanta has not fared well in this spot as it is 1-5 in Wood's last six starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Phillies are 5-0 in their last five home games vs. a left-handed starter. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-16-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is one of the few games on the Wednesday card that involves two teams still playing for something and in this cased, it is playoff seeding. The Bulls are tied with the Raptors, which play the Knicks tonight, for third place in the Eastern Conference and while they are locked into a homecourt advantage in the first round no matter what, Charlotte arguably has a lot more to play for. The Bobcats will either finish seventh in the Eastern Conference and be matched against the Heat, or finish in sixth place and face the Raptors. Either a Wizards victory at Boston or a Bobcats loss to the Bulls locks the Bobcats matchup against the Heat. While a Washington victory is likely, Charlotte will not know the outcome until this game is done since that other game starts an hour later. Bobcats head coach Steve Clifford has expressed the importance of this game and not just winning but playing good as he has not liked the effort the last few games. Additionally, the Bobcats should be hungry as they have lost the first three meetings with Chicago and will be out to avoid the season series sweep. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record while Chicago is just 3-6 ATS as an underdog of fewer than three points. 10* (522) Charlotte Bobcats |
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04-14-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | Top | 97-91 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The final playoff spot in the Western Conference is on the line tonight with Memphis taking on Phoenix. Two games remain for both teams and while the Grizzlies can clinch the final spot with a win tonight, the Suns can keep their hopes alive with a victory but they will still need some help to get in. Phoenix has dropped the first three meetings in this season series so should these teams finish in a tie, the Suns would lose the tiebreaker. First things first, Phoenix needs to win tonight to extend the season and the line we are getting is very favorable for a team in a must win spot. The Suns have dropped their last two games at San Antonio and at Dallas and they are back home where they are 26-14 on the season including wins in four of their last five. Phoenix is 7-1 ATS this season as a favorite of fewer than three points while going 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games following a loss. Memphis has gotten hot at the right time as it has won three straight games following a 2-4 run. The Grizzlies have been solid on the road this season but they have had trouble beating the above average teams on the highway as they are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record while cashing just one of their last 11 road games overall. Phoenix lives for another day. 10* (518) Phoenix Suns
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04-14-14 | St. Louis Cardinals +105 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 105 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
The Brewers own the best record in baseball through the first two weeks after their sweep of the Pirates over the weekend to make it nine straight wins. Milwaukee has been bolstered by a pitching staff that leads baseball with a 1.80 ERA and has allowed more than four runs only once during the winning streak. Matt Garza has been part of the success as he has a 2.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his first two starts but the big question is how long can he keep it up. His career numbers are very solid but he has not been very durable lately as he has missed significant time the last two years and the Cardinals are an opponent that could get to him as the offense has finally got going, scoring 16 runs over the last two games. Lance Lynn has been pretty average to start the season as he has yet to register a quality outing but he is off to a 2-0 start and while his home numbers are better than his road numbers going back the last couple seasons, Miller Park has treated him right as he has a 2.33 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four starts and one relief appearance with three of those starts resulting in quality performances, allowing one run in each. The Cardinals have won eight of the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee and we should see them break the Brewers streak tonight. 10* (907) St. Louis Cardinals
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04-13-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Indiana Pacers -2 | Top | 97-102 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Indiana was in control of the Eastern Conference but a recent 3-8 run has the Pacers now tied with Miami for first place. This recent run includes a loss against the Heat in their last game at Miami so Indiana once again finds itself in must win mode. The Pacers have lost two of three at home but their 34-6 record is still impressive and today's line is short enough that a win likely means a cover. Oklahoma City is playing for much less at it cannot catch the Spurs and it is locked into the number two seed in the Western Conference. This puts them in a situation where rest is most important and in the case of Russell Westbrook, he will sit out either today or tomorrow as he is not playing in back--to-back games. As of now, he likely will play Sunday but if he sits, it will only be a benefit to us. After getting swept last year against the Thunder, the Pacers loss the first meeting at Oklahoma City year which brings in a triple revenge situation. All three of those games were decided by double-digits which only adds to the incentive. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record and while the Pacers have been on a horrid ATS run, the home team has covered four of the last five meetings. With much more at stake and a number that does not seem to be taking that into consideration, the Pacers are the play this afternoon. 10* (708) Indiana Pacers
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04-12-14 | Philadelphia Flyers +126 v. Pittsburgh Penguins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 126 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
After getting shutout in Minnesota after clinching the Metropolitan Division, the Penguins have gone on to win their last two games, both coming by way of a shootout and the situation tonight isn't the best. The Penguins have clinched the Metro title and are assured of the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference so have nothing to play for on Saturday besides trying to defeat a rival but the banged up team needs to be more concerned about being as healthy as possible heading into the playoffs. While Pittsburgh has a decisive home ice advantage, that has not been the case in this series as the Flyers are 8-1-1 in regular-season games at the Consol Energy Center since the arena opened in 2010-11 while going 10-2-1 there if you include the playoffs. Philadelphia lost its last game in Tampa Bay on Thursday and it remains tied with Columbus for third place in the division while also being tied with Detroit in the Wild Card race. If the Flyers drop to the second Wild Card slot, they would face the Bruins in the first round of the playoffs which is not a spot they want. We catch a great price Saturday afternoon with the team with a lot more on the line. 10* (53) Philadelphia Flyers
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04-11-14 | Detroit Pistons +10.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
Chicago is playing its best basketball of the season as it has won six straight games, which is a season high, and the last five have been dominating as they have all been by double-digits. It is tough for NBA teams to keep up this pace and this is where I feel the streak comes to an end. We played on the Bulls in their last game at Minnesota and they pulled away late to increase their lead over Brooklyn to three games in the Eastern Conference for the fourth spot and they are tied with Toronto for the three seed so there is a lot to play for still. But this is a big number to le laying and the Bulls are just 2-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. Detroit has had a tough season no doubt after coming in with some lofty playoff expectations. The Pistons had won two straight games including an upset over Atlanta before getting hammered at Cleveland on Wednesday. They have stepped up and played a lot more competitive against the better teams however as Detroit is 5-1 ATS this season as a double-digit under and the lone ATS loss of the bunch came by just one bucket. The Pistons have had a tough time in this series but playing spoiler against their hated rival is the goal. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The road team has covered five of the last six games in this series and that continues tonight. 10* (715) Detroit Pistons
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04-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs +2.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
After 19 straight wins, the Spurs have dropped two of their last three games including a blowout loss at Minnesota last time out. Going into Wednesday action, San Antonio had a 3.5-game lead over Oklahoma City which was at the Clippers but either way, the Spurs can clinch the Western Conference with a victory because they own the tiebreaker with the Thunder. They are banged up right now as Tony Parker is out and Manu Ginobili is doubtful but this team is much more than the "Big Three" like it used to be. San Antonio is 15-2 this season following a loss and it wants nothing more than to wrap this up and rest players heading into the playoffs as it would be assured of the best overall record as well. The Mavericks have a lot to play for certainly as they are fighting for the playoffs but are in good position with Memphis on the brink of elimination. Additionally, they want to finally be able to say they have beaten San Antonio as thy have lost eight straight meetings but that still may not be enough here. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win of more than 10 points while the Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. 10* (501) San Antonio Spurs
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04-10-14 | Phoenix Coyotes +100 v. Nashville Predators | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
We often talk about must wins and how that can affect lines on some teams in these situations but we are not seeing a big overadjustment here. We played on Phoenix Tuesday in Columbus in a battle of teams vying for the playoffs and the Coyotes ended up losing on overtime which was a tough blow for us after they tied the game in regulation with 15 seconds remaining. But for Phoenix, it gained a valuable point and now sits two points behind Dallas for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. After this, the Coyotes host San Jose before hosting the Stars and for that game to mean anything, a win here is imperative. Phoenix is riding a five-game losing skid, three coming in extra time so it has not done itself any favors in putting itself in this spot. Nashville meanwhile will not be making the playoffs as it was officially eliminated from the postseason on Tuesday after a shootout loss in Dallas. The Predators mental state is certainly in question now as this is the first game since knowing the playoffs are no longer attainable and with that comes some lethargic efforts. This is the second to last home game which is big deal so there is no last game motivation. Plus, the Predators are just 2-6 in their last eight home games. 10* (67) Phoenix Coyotes
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04-10-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs +125 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
The Pirates have owned this series so far this season and going back to last year but this is a great opportunity for the Cubs to grab the series finale on Thursday. Travis Wood was one of the best pitchers last season that got little to show for it as he posted a 3.11 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 32 starts but he was able to get just nine wins while Chicago went 12-20 in those games. Run support was a big issue but it is hard to bypass a pitcher of his quality as a great price. He is coming off a quality start in his first outing this season as he allowed three earned runs in 6.1 innings against the Phillies but the Cubs managed only two runs while the bullpen did him no favors. He faced the Pirates last year three times, tossing three quality starts and he has posted a 2.08 ERA in six starts against Pittsburgh the last two seasons. Pittsburgh counters with Gerrit Cole and he ahs been a very consistent part of the rotation. He had a 3.22 ERA and 1.17 WHIP last season in 19 starts and is coming off a quality performance in his first start this season against the Cardinals. That is hard to go against but like Wood, he was hurt quite a bit by a lack of run support and I don't see the Pirates having much success Thursday afternoon. We will grab the Cubs to take the final game of this three-game set. 10* (902) Chicago Cubs
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04-09-14 | Chicago Bulls -2 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | Top | 102-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Minnesota is coming off a rare win over a quality opponent last night as it upset San Antonio and I say rare because the Timberwolves 27 losses against teams ranked in the top 16 of the NBA Power Rankings are the 12th most in the league. Firmly out of the playoffs, Minnesota is just playing spoiler at this point and coming off a win like that on Tuesday spells letdown tonight. This is the fourth game in six nights for the Timberwolves as last night's game was a rescheduled game from December that was supposed to take place in Mexico City but was postponed because of a fire. That hurt them considering they have won just four of 19 games this season when playing with no rest and the Timberwolves are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games playing on zero days rest. Chicago is riding a five-game winning streak and is putting the pressure on Toronto for third place in the Eastern Conference as it is tied with the Raptors while sitting two games ahead of Brooklyn for fourth place. The Bulls winning streak has been against some questionable opposition and they have struggled this season against the Western Conference but this one sets up better than most and with having the last three days off, they will come in with a ton more energy. Chicago has won 10 of 15 games as a road favorite this year and road team has covered five straight games in this series while Chicago has also covered five straight meetings in Minnesota. 10* (715) Chicago Bulls
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04-09-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Washington Wizards -5 | Top | 94-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a big game for both sides as it will play a big role for playoff implications. The Wizards are sitting in sixth place in the Eastern Conference while the Bobcats are just one game back in seventh place. This may not seem like a big deal since there is no home court advantage or the possibility of falling out of the playoffs on the line but it has to do with matchups. The sixth place team will face either Toronto, Chicago or Brooklyn while the seventh place team will face either Indiana or Miami and while the former is struggling, the Pacers are not a team you want to see in the first round. A loss by Washington puts Charlotte in the drivers seat as they will be tied but the Bobcats hold the edge in the tiebreaker because of the 3-1 season series win. The Wizards will be out to avoid that and the home floor will be the difference tonight. Washington is coming off a home loss against Chicago on Saturday but it is 6-3 in its last nine games following a loss while going 5-0 in its last five home games following a loss in its last home game. The Bobcats are on a mini roll as they have won four straight games with the streak starting at home against Washington and it is a game the Wizards have not forgotten as they blew a 16-point halftime lead. The Bobcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (708) Washington Wizards
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04-07-14 | Kentucky -2.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 54-60 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 30 m | Show |
Nobody saw this championship game coming when the bracket was released as we have a number seven seed vs. a number eight seed and it is the highest combined seed total in a title game ever. That doesn't mean it is going to lack any excitement though and the history of these programs alone make this a great matchup. Kentucky entered the season ranked number one in the AP Poll despite possessing an all-freshman starting lineup and now they have a chance to finish with the same ranking. The Wildcats definitely went through some growing pains this season but that only made them stronger and they are now peaking at the right time. Losing to Arkansas and South Carolina toward the end of the regular season put them out of the spotlight and then getting hammered at Florida in the regular season finale put them in a precarious position but they rebounded well in the SEC Tournament that culminated in a one-point loss to the Gators. Now Kentucky is playing its best and has some significant advantages here against Connecticut. The Huskies are also peaking at the right time and they arguably have been more dominant in their victories in the tournament. They shot over 55 percent against Florida which was very impressive although they took just 43 shots in the process. Connecticut has been pretty much dead even in rebounding in the first five games while Kentucky has a rebounding margin of +8.4 in the tournament and that will be a big difference here. The Huskies allowed 11 offensive boards against Florida while Kentucky is averaging 11.6 offensive rpg in the last five games and those second chance points are going to hurt the Huskies. Kentucky is 8-4 ATS as a single digit favorite this season and I expect that run to keep going as the Wildcats pull away. 10* (601) Kentucky Wildcats
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04-07-14 | Minnesota Wild -104 v. Winnipeg Jets | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
With the regular season winding down, some teams are vying for the playoffs and others for playoff positioning while others are just ready for the season to end. Don't think for a second that the lines don't reflect this as often times in the final week of the season, a lot of the 'must win' teams have their lines overinflated and while we have one of those teams tonight facing a team that is eliminated, I feel we actually have a very fair price. It is safe to say this line is even due to the fact that Minnesota has been poor on the road with roughly the same record as Winnipeg at home but the Wild have been a lot better on the highway of late, going 4-1-2 over their last seven. With four games left, the Wild's magic number to make the playoffs is two points. The Stars, who failed to grab a point in Florida on Sunday, sit five points back while ninth-place Phoenix is six points back. The Wild have three more non-shootout wins than the Coyotes and own the second tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series 2-1-0 so a win here and they are in. Winnipeg also won on Saturday as it defeated Toronto, hurting the fading Maple Leafs playoff hopes. While Minnesota has been better on the road of late, the Jets have been horrible at home, going 2-7 over their last nine games. Additionally, the Jets are 0-5 in their last five games following a win and with Boston and St. Louis on deck for Minnesota, taking care of business here is extremely important. 10* (3) Minnesota Wild
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04-07-14 | Baltimore Orioles +135 v. New York Yankees | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
We won with the Orioles on Sunday as they snapped a four-game skid with a win in Detroit and I think that will give them a big boost heading into this series in New York. Baltimore got a great start from Chris Tillman and we are hoping for another solid performance to back that up from Ubaldo Jimenez on Monday. He is coming off a less than stellar performance in his season opener as he allowed four runs in six innings against the Red Sox and those four runs allowed came courtesy of two separate two-run homers. Back in 2012, he allowed 25 home runs but he has not allowed more than 16 in any other season so his first start should not be a big concern. He was very effective on the road last year with Cleveland and I expect a good outing here. This is the season home opener for the Yankees and the final one for Derek Jeter so it will certainly be a special day at Yankee Stadium. That doesn't mean much to me though when it comes to winning and losing and if anything, this will be more of a distraction than anything. Hiroki Kuroda was a tough luck pitcher in his opening start against the Astros as he tossed a quality outing but took the loss. We went against him there and will do so again here. He was awesome at Yankee Stadium last year including a domination of the Orioles in two starts but again, this is a lot about going against the team as a whole as I don't think the chemistry is still there yet. 10* (955) Baltimore Orioles
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04-06-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
After defeating the Spurs and ending San Antonio's 19-game winning streak, the Thunder could not back it up with another win as they lost in Houston the next night. That was a tough spot for them to be in but I expect Oklahoma City to bounce back tonight and try and keep pace with the Spurs in the Western Conference standings as it sits 3.5 games back with seven games left. The Thunder are 23-13 on the road and have won 17 of 24 games as road favorites and they are an awesome 5-1 ATS as favorites in this price range. They have won three straight games following a loss and going back, they are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss. Oklahoma City will not be taking this one lightly as it lost the last meeting here by six points as a six-point favorite and despite that being played just a month ago, the line has come down significantly. Phoenix won its last game, an upset win at Portland to remain tied with Memphis for eighth place in the Western Conference. This is no doubt a big game for the Suns to keep pace but they have not been great against the top teams, going 17-23 against the top 16 in the NBA and they are in a very tough situation tonight. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday. 10* (517) Oklahoma City Thunder
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04-06-14 | Dallas Stars v. Florida Panthers +143 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 143 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Dallas picked up a huge win last night in Tampa Bay to grab two big points to leapfrog over Phoenix and into eighth place in the Western Conference with just five games remaining. The Stars are 3-1 on this current roadtrip which ends today in Florida and while this is another big game for them, we are seeing this line being overadjusted because of it. Dallas is just 17-22 on the road this season and is 0-3 in its last three games as a road favorite. Kari Lehtonen has been very solid of late as he is 6-2 with a 2.01 GAA in his last eight starts but he has not fared well against Florida, going 1-4 with a 4.34 GAA. That could spell trouble as could the fact if Tim Thomas gets the start as he has been poor since coming to Dallas from Florida, allowing 14 goals on 128 shots for a poor .891 save percentage. The Panthers are just playing out the rest of the season and they have been in a funk with losses in five straight games including their last three at home. Goalie Roberto Luongo has been solid with a 2.09 GAA in his last three starts but lack of offense has kept him out of the win column. I expect the Panthers to get the offense going today no matter who they face as we catch a ton of value. 10* (52) Florida Panthers
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04-05-14 | Kentucky v. Wisconsin +2 | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 106 h 30 m | Show |
Kentucky is lowest seed remaining at number eight and while it was underseeded heading into the tournament, the Wildcats are proving many people wrong and playing some of their best basketball of the season. I won't say they were lucky in their last win over Michigan but they were fortunate to hit a late three-pointer with not enough time left for the Wolverines to try and tie the game. They were favored over that number two seed and they are once again favored over a number two seed here. Kentucky has covered seven straight games in the postseason after closing the season with five straight non-covers. Wisconsin has been a moneymaker as well as it is 5-1 ATS in the postseason, covering all four NCAA Tournament games. This includes winning and covering as an underdog against Arizona last time out and the Badgers are now 4-1 straight up and against the number as underdogs this season. While Kentucky is getting the accolades for playing its best basketball now, the same can be said for Wisconsin which has won 13 of its last 15 games following a 1-5 speedbump in late January and early February. Consistency is what this team is about and considering the Badgers have used the same starting lineup in all 37 games, this is evident. On the other side, this Kentucky team is the first group of five starting freshmen to reach the Final Four since Michigan’s "Fab Five" in 1992. The loss of Willie Cauley-Stein could be seriously detrimental to Kentucky, particularly on the defensive end. The Wildcats are longer and more athletic but Wisconsin pays a smarter brand of basketball and that will pay big dividends here. 10* (816) Wisconsin Badgers
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04-05-14 | Pittsburgh Penguins v. Minnesota Wild -104 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
We won with Pittsburgh in its last game as the Penguins took care of Winnipeg on Thursday. They won the Metropolitan Division and have locked up the number two seed in the upcoming Eastern Conference playoffs so they could be in for a letdown tonight with not a lot to be playing for. Pittsburgh has gone 4-7 in its previous 11 games so despite the latest victory, they have not been on top of their game and they will see a big challenge tonight. Minnesota is coming off a shootout loss at Chicago last time out but it picked up a big point as it continues to lead the Wild Card race in the Western Conference. The Wild are four points ahead of Phoenix and five points ahead of Dallas and are in pretty good position based on the remaining schedule as they play four of their final five games at home but have lost a season-high three straight there, totaling five goals. They are one of only eight teams in the NHL that have single digit regulation losses and the Wild are 20-9 in their last 29 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Goalie Ilya Bryzgalov will start again tonight and he has been awesome as he is 4-0-3 with a 1.93 GAA in seven starts since being acquired from Edmonton. The importance of this game is huge for Minnesota and we will see a great effort as it gets closer to a playoff spot while halting its home losing skid. 10* (18) Minnesota Wild
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04-05-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3 | Top | 96-94 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
It is a very unusual schedule in the NBA tonight as every team is playing its second game in two nights so we can take advantage of some great situations. Despite being 15 games under .500. Cleveland is still in the playoff hunt even though last night really hurt their chances. The Cavaliers travelled to Atlanta with a chance to pull to within one game of the Hawks for the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference but laid an egg as they lost by 19 points in a game they never led. Time is running out and tonight is a must win with just five games left on the schedule and it is one that sets up great as four of those games are at home and after tonight, they face three non-playoff teams. Cleveland needs help along the way but it can only worry about itself tonight. The Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS this season when playing with no rest and going from the road to back home. Charlotte rolled over Orlando last night to make it three straight wins and it can clinch a playoff berth with a win tonight so the Bobcats will no doubt come to play. They are just 12-21 on the road when playing as an underdog and unlike Cleveland, they have been horrible when playing with no rest. Charlotte is 2-9 straight up and 3-8 ATS on the road in the second of back-to-back games. The Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and will be out for triple revenge tonight as they have dropped the first three games of the season series. 10* (810) Cleveland Cavaliers
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04-05-14 | Connecticut v. Florida -6 | Top | 63-53 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 50 m | Show |
With the upset of Michigan St., Connecticut becomes the first number seven seed to advance to the Final Four since the tournament expanded 30 years ago. It has been an exceptional run for the Huskies as they have won their last three games as underdogs but let's not forget that they were inches away from losing in the second round to St. Josephs as the Hawks missed a last second shot and Connecticut took advantage and won in overtime. Now comes the true test. The Huskies defeated Florida at home earlier this season and that happened to be the Gators last loss as they have strung together 30 consecutive wins since then. Florida possesses the top ranked adjusted defense in the nation and that is something Connecticut has not come close to facing. The Huskies have faced defenses ranked 29th, 74th, 17th and 64th through their first four games of the tournament and not only that, they have a huge disadvantage on the glass here. Connecticut's defensive rebounding percentage of 67.0 percent ranks 267th nationally. Its offensive rebounding percentage of 30.5 percent ranks 214th in the country. Meanwhile, Florida is top 30 in defensive rebounding percentage and top 50 in offensive rebounding percentage. This is not a favorable situation for the Huskies as going back over two decades, teams in the Final Four that are seeded five or less as underdogs of fewer than seven points are 0-8 ATS. Florida has won every game this season when favored and there is no reason to think that changes here as the Gators pull away to head to the championship game. 10* (814) Florida Gators
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04-05-14 | Minnesota Twins +151 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 7-3 | Win | 151 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Both Minnesota and Cleveland are playing their fifth game of the season and that means both are sending their number five starters to the hill and this is a great opportunity in catching a solid number in going against an overvalued back rotation guy. The Indians won their home opener yesterday and are off to a 3-1 start but after last year's surprisingly successful year, I expect them to regress but they are still coming in as big favorites. Carlos Carrasco gets the call for the Indians and while he was supposed to be a top rated pitcher at this point, he simply is not. He posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.76 WHIP last season and he won the fifth spot despite a 5.17 ERA in five appearances this spring. Cleveland went 0-4 in his four home starts last season and the Indians are 4-16 in Carrasco's last 20 home starts. Kyle Gibson goes for Minnesota and while his limited action in 2013 was up and down, he showed some great ability as to why he is considered one of the best young pitchers in the organization. The Twins went 5-5 in his 10 starts last year including going 3-2 in five road starts and he is coming off a solid spring. He posted a 2.70 ERA and was very impressive in his last outing as he allowed just one run which came on a solo home run. 10* (965) Minnesota Twins
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04-04-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers +8 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
The Mavericks are coming off a huge win last night against the Clippers and they remain in the same building to take on the Lakers tonight and you can guarantee the energy and focus will not be the same. The victory moved the Mavericks into seventh place in the Western Conference and they lead Memphis and Phoenix by just a half-game for the last spot and the first out. This is obviously a must win game and with Sacramento and Utah on deck, the schedule lightens before facing the Spurs, Suns and Grizzlies to close the season. This ease in the schedule mentally can be an issue, especially coming off an upset win the previous night. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win while going 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. It has been a lost season for the Lakers and they are just playing out the string but the reserves that have been thrown into the lineup are playing hard because they are playing for jobs and Los Angeles is once again catching a solid number at home. The Lakers are 4-3 in their last seven home games including wins against Oklahoma City and Phoenix so they continue to compete as the season winds down. This is the third and final meeting of the season between these two teams and while the Lakers have nothing to play for, they are looking to avoid the series sweep as they have double payback following two blowout losses on the road. 10* (528) Los Angeles Lakers
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04-03-14 | Pittsburgh Penguins -126 v. Winnipeg Jets | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The Penguins struggles continues last time out as they lost at home against Carolina as -185 favorites but I expect a big bounceback tonight and we are catching a great price in doing so. Home ice has been incredible this season for Pittsburgh until recently as it is 4-7 in its last 11 home games so playing on the road is not a bad thing, especially against poor competition. Some added motivation is the fact that the Penguins can clinch the Metropolitan Division tonight with a win. Winnipeg is coming off a shootout win at Phoenix two nights ago but putting together any sort of winning streak has been an issue as the Jets are 1-5 in their last six games following a win. Winnipeg is 11th place in the Western Conference and has gone 4-7-4 in its last 15 games and while mathematically not out of the playoffs, catching Minnesota, Dallas and Phoenix will be close to impossible with just five games left. The Penguins are 17-8 in their last 25 road games against teams with a losing home record while the Jets are 1-6 in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. Additionally, the Jets are 3-7 in their last 10 home games following a road trip of seven or more days so heading back home is not necessarily a good thing for Winnipeg. 10* (9) Pittsburgh Penguins
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04-03-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
San Antonio clinched the Southwest Division last night with a win at home against Golden St. The Spurs have now won 19 straight games, the most in franchise history, and they have a four-game lead over Oklahoma City in the Western Conference with seven games left. They are also in good shape for the best record in the NBA which comes with home court advantage in the NBA Finals should they get that far. There has been recent talk about how a loss could be good for San Antonio and while no team likes to lose, it could be a benefit to recharge the batteries although the Spurs continue to play at a high level as they have covered four straight games and are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games. Head coach Gregg Popovich is not new to surprises and his goal is to be healthy in the playoffs to go after another NBA Championship. If that means resting Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker as much as possible, he will do it, streak or no streak. Does that mean tonight? Likely not but he has rested his players in big games before and it is recommended to bet this one as soon as possible in case word does come out later about resting players. Oklahoma City has been off for three days and you can argue it being longer as its last two games were against Sacramento and Utah so no energy was exerted and the Thunder have been home the whole time. While the Spurs will want to avoid a season series sweep, Oklahoma City will be motivated to complete the sweep and end this crazy winning streak. Even with the Spurs at full strength, the Thunder are more than capable as they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (702) Oklahoma City Thunder
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04-03-14 | Yale v. Murray State -7.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 101 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Yale heads to Murray, Kentucky to face the Racers of Murray St. in the CIT Championship game and this could not be a tougher task for the Bulldogs. They won their first three CIT games by a total of nine points, including a three-point win over Columbia in the quarterfinals, and has advanced to the CIT's championship game on the heels of winning three-straight road games. That makes this the fourth straight game on the highway and one with a very short turnaround time. Making matters even worse, Yale will likely be without Justin Sears, the team's leading scorer and rebounder, as he injured his hand in the semifinal against VMI. ''My trainer thinks he either tore a ligament or broke it,'' coach James Jones said. ''That's not good.'' Meanwhile Murray St. is coming off a blowout win against Pacific at home and it gets to remain at home which is big for travel purposes as well as the fact the Racers home floor is a big advantage for them. The Racers have played their last three CIT games on the CFSB Center court and have won 14 straight home games while going 38-7 under head coach Steve Prohm at home. Murray St. is 12-0 straight up and 11-1 ATS this season as a home favorite and overall, the Racers are 12-2 ATS as a single digit favorite. Yale has been solid on the road this season and with the last three wins, it has evened its road record to 9-9 but there is just too much working against the Bulldogs in this one. 10* (708) Murray St. Racers
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04-02-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | Top | 112-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
Despite being idle last night, Phoenix moved into eighth place in the Western Conference thanks to Dallas losing against Golden St. and now it will be up to the Suns to stay there. Phoenix was riding a six-game winning streak until it lost at the Lakers on Sunday by 16 points as a 9.5-point favorite so it will be out to make up for that painful defeat. The Suns have been awesome this season coming off a loss as they are 20-9 ATS and this is the start of an extremely important, yet brutal stretch to stay alive in the Western Conference. Six of the next seven games are all against playoff teams or playoff contending teams from the Western Conference and this is the first of only three remaining home games to close out the season. Phoenix is 25-13 on its home floor this season and speaking of coming off a loss, the Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Clippers have won their last three games on this current five-game roadtrip that concludes tonight. Los Angeles is comfortably sitting in third place in the Western Conference, three games ahead of Houston so it has some wiggle room for games such as this and that is because of the status of Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford, both of which are likely to miss tonight to rest some nagging injuries. This is a pair of big absences as Griffin and Crawford are averaging over 42 ppg combined and replacing that production will be difficult. The Clippers have been awesome in this underdog role this season but that has been at full strength but the Suns can back that up with a 10-3 ATS record as favorites of fewer than five points. 10* (524) Phoenix Suns
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