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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-10-14 | Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Miami is coming off another loss on Sunday, its third straight, as it fell at Chicago in overtime. The Heat blew a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Bulls as the offense managed only 19 points in that final period and then followed that up with just two points in overtime. Now Miami will be out to avoid its first four-game losing streak since March of 2011 so expect to see a full out effort tonight. Back in 2012, Miami lost three straight road games and then came back home to post a 22-point win over San Antonio. The Heat then lost three straight Boston in the playoffs but followed that up with a 19-point win. They avoided a three-game losing streak last season and this season, they have lost three straight once and followed that up with a 15-point win. Adding even more incentive is that Miami will be out for payback following a 17-point loss in Washington in January. The Wizards have won two straight games and eight of their last nine games so they clearly are playing exceptional right now but they are catching Miami at the worst time possible. Even though they have won five straight road games, only one of those came against a decent opponent which was in Toronto and overall, Washington is just 5-16 against teams ranked in the top ten in the NBA power rankings. This line came out late as Miami will be without Dwyane Wade tonight who is taking the night off to rest but the Heats have won three straight without him in the lineup and with LeBron James coming off his two worst back-to-back games of the season, we should see him take this one over himself. 10* (504) Miami Heat
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03-09-14 | Indiana Pacers -1.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
We won with Dallas and lost with Indiana on Friday so we are backing the Pacers once again as they look to snap their three-game losing streak. The Pacers have also dropped six straight against the number and I feel that is adding to the value coupled with its losing skid. The Pacers were favored by nine points in the first meeting at home and lost by eight points so it sets up a revenge situation as well even though they are not in need of any more motivation. Indiana has a game and a half lead on Miami for first place in the Eastern Conference but that is three games in the win column which makes a big difference as opposed to games in the loss column. Indiana is still a solid 12-3 following a loss this season despite the recent skid. Dallas is coming off a closer than expected win over Portland as it needed a late run to hold off the Blazers after squandering a 30-point lead and that type of victory is hard to recover from. The Mavericks have not had any success in this role as they are 0-5 straight up and against the number as home underdogs and overall they are 7-16 against the NBA top ten. Indiana is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games coming off a double-digit loss while the Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. 10* (815) Indiana Pacers
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03-09-14 | St. Louis Blues v. Minnesota Wild +108 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
There will be no lack of motivation for Minnesota on Sunday as it looks to rebound from a loss in Dallas last night which snapped a five-game winning streak dating back to prior to the Olympic break. Additionally, the Wild will try and solve their lack of success against St. Louis as they have dropped seven consecutive meetings with the Blue including both meetings this season where they managed just a total of one goal. St. Louis also played last night and won in Colorado making it four straight wins for the Blues including three on the road. This is the third game in four nights for St. Louis which includes travel all four days so the weary Blues may not be close to 100 percent. The Blues 20 road wins are tied for most in the NHL and while it will be no easy task for Minnesota, the home ice has been solid. Minnesota is 6-0 in its last six home games and going back, the Wild are 22-7 in their last 29 home games. Here, we play against road teams against the moneyline in the second half of the season that are playing their 3rd road game in four days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 109-50 (68.6 percent) since 1996. Additionally, St. Louis is 0-7 against the moneyline in its last seven games when playing its 2nd road game in two days while Minnesota is 12-1 against the moneyline in its 12 home games this season when playing only its 2nd game in five days. 10* (58) Minnesota Wild
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03-09-14 | Indiana State +13 v. Wichita State | Top | 69-83 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 17 m | Show |
This line came out late this morning and it is a lot higher than expected. While no one is giving Indiana St. a chance here, I am not one of those. The Sycamores are the second best team in the MVC and while there is obviously a significant dropoff from first place to second place, they should present a challenge to the Shockers on Sunday. Both teams are playing their third game in three days so there is no advantage for Wichita St. being the top seed with the exception that it has yet to lose a game this season. The Shockers do not seem to be feeling the pressure of being undefeated as they have cruised over their last few games, covering seven straight and nine of their last 10. The last seven covers have all been as double-digit favorites but all have come against teams with a conference record that is not above .500. these teams played a month ago in Terre Haute with Wichita St. winning by seven but the main thing from there is that they were favored by four points which would make them an eight-point favorite on a neutral floor. Granted a lot has happened since then with the Shockers continuing to roll but Indiana St. has gone 6-3 since that last meeting so it isn't like it has imploded. The Sycamores are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games which is helping us with the number here as well and the cover/non-cover streak bring in a great situation as we play on underdogs after failing to cover three of their last four games against the spread going up against a team that has covered 12 or more of its last 15 against the spread. This situation is 48-17 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (833) Indiana St. Sycamores
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03-09-14 | Syracuse -1.5 v. Florida State | Top | 74-58 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
Florida St. has won and covered three straight games to move a game over .500 in the ACC and it looks to close out the regular season with some big momentum heading into the ACC Tournament. The Seminoles could use a quality win to increase their chances of an at-large big into the NCAA Tournament as right now they are on the bubble looking in. The problem is that quality wins have been few and far between as they are 2-6 against the RPI top 25 including 0-4 in the ACC. They lost their only game as a home underdog which came against North Carolina and they will have a huge challenge here on Sunday afternoon. It has been an epic fall for Syracuse which has lost four of its last five games after a 25-0 start. Losses at Duke and Virginia are nothing to be ashamed of but home losses against Boston College and Georgia Tech were simply uncalled for. The latter came in the Orange's last game on Tuesday and thy have gone 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games. Syracuse is 6-0 this season as a road favorite however and with the short price today, a win likely means a cover and this team is in desperate need of a victory to gain some momentum heading into the ACC Tournament. A win means a number two seed. Syracuse is 11-5-2 ATS in its last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while Florida St. is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 home games after playing two consecutive games as favorite and 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams allowing 64 or fewer ppg. 10* (823) Syracuse Orange
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03-08-14 | North Carolina v. Duke -7 | Top | 81-93 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
Duke is coming off a devastating loss at Wake Forest which most likely took away a chance of a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament depending on how other teams close the season. The Blue Devils allowed a late 17-0 run by the Demon Deacons and now they head home in search of answers for their final regular season game. I like their chances of a bounce back here though as they not only will be out to make up for that debacle in Winston Salem but will also be out for revenge against their hated rival after losing at North Carolina by eight points in the first meeting. Duke has won 32 consecutive games at home, the longest streak in the country. Additionally, Duke has lost back-to-back games just once since the start of the 2009-10 season and is 25-1 following a loss during that span. North Carolina could not come in any better right now as it has turned its season completely around with wins in 12 straight games following a 1-4 start in the ACC. Not to take anything away from the run but they so not have a big quality road win over this stretch as the best one came at NC State by a single point in overtime. To prove that point, they have been favored in their last five road games. North Carolina's streak ends here. 10* (622) Duke Blue Devils
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03-08-14 | Providence v. Creighton -11.5 | Top | 73-88 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
While Creighton no longer can win the Big East title, this is still a big game for the Bluejays. They have lost two straight games against Xavier and Georgetown, both of which came on the road and they head home looking to close the regular season with a win heading into the postseason. Creighton is 15-0 at home, winning those games by close to 20 ppg and it will be out for revenge on Senior Night after losing at Providence by 13 points in the first meeting. Creighton is 17-1 in the last 18 years in its final home game of the regular-season, including last year
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03-08-14 | New York Knicks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The streaky Cavaliers lost again last night at Charlotte making it three straight losses, two of which have come on the road and the one at home coming against San Antonio. Cleveland is back home as it looks to get back to .500 on its home floor and it has been put in a good position to do so. How bad is the Eastern Conference? Despite being 15 games under .500, the Cavaliers are only three and a half games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference currently held by Atlanta. So despite the poor record, motivation is still there and if there is more needed, Cleveland can look back to five weeks ago when it went to New York and was hammered by 31 points. The Knicks meanwhile has won two straight games and neither were close as they trounced Minnesota and Utah by double-digits. This came after a seven-game skid which should quell any talk about the Knicks finally turning the corner as this is a team that still has its share of problems. While it won against the Timberwolves as an underdog, New York has struggled in this range, going 3-14 ATS this season as underdogs of less than five points. New York is 0-3 this season and 1-2 ATS when playing with no rest on the road following a home game while on the other side, the Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS when playing with no rest at home following a road game. Cleveland meanwhile is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while the Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (504) Cleveland Cavaliers
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03-08-14 | Boston Bruins v. Tampa Bay Lightning +115 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
The return of Steve Stamkos did not help Tampa Bay snap its losing skid as it has now reached three games following a pretty embarrassing home loss to the Sabres, the worst team in hockey. The Lightning lost the first two games on the road to Colorado and St. Louis so those are justified and they get Ben Bishop back in goal tonight after Anders Lindback started against Buffalo and Bishop is 3-0 in his last three games at home. Tampa Bay comes in on a perfect 5-0 run following a divisional loss by two goals or more. The Bruins have dialed back in as after losing their first two games after the break, they have won their last three games by a combined score of 13-4. one of those wins was on the road against the Rangers but Boston has been average on the highway, going 6-8 in its last 14 games and going back it is 3-9 in 12 road games this season following a home win including 1-6 following a home win by two goals or more. Tampa Bay has a solid situation on its side as we play against road teams after two straight wins by three goals or more going up against an opponent after scoring two goals or less in two straight games. This situation is 26-11 (70.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (8) Tampa Bay Lightning
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03-08-14 | Colorado v. California -4 | Top | 65-66 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
We played on California on Wednesday as it hosted Utah in what was a big game at the time. As mentioned in that write up, California could not afford any bad losses and the one against Utah was one which has knocked the Golden Bears outside of the NCAA bubble. Now it really is must win time as they need to close with a win here and make a solid run through the Pac 12 Tournament to have any consideration. California has now dropped three straight games and has also lost its last five games against the spread which sets them up for a big regular season home finale. Colorado is coming off an upset win at Stanford on the same night and that certainly upped their value going into the postseason. The Buffaloes are a projected number ten seed so they have a pretty firm hold getting an at large bye and while a win would be beneficial, a loss will not knock them out. They are just 1-4 as a road underdog with that first win coming at Stanford and this game marks their first time all season they have had to play three straight road games. California keeps its hopes alive here. 10* (590) California Golden Bears
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03-08-14 | Utah v. Stanford -4.5 | Top | 60-61 | Loss | -106 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
After winning three straight games, Stanford has dropped its last three contests including a bad home loss against Colorado last time out on Wednesday. The Cardinal stock has dropped but not to the point where they have lost their likely NCAA Tournament spot. A loss here though could put them on the outside. Despite the loss to the Buffaloes, they are a solid 11-4 straight up and 10-3 against the number at home this season and I expect that to be extended in their final home game of the season. Utah picked up a rare road win on Wednesday over California and while I said they were catching the Golden Bears at the wrong time, clearly they were not intimidated. Now the problem is winning consecutive games on the road, something the Utes have not done since January of 2011 when they defeated Wyoming and TCU and even then it was not the same as they had a home game sandwiched in there. Utah is just 2-7 on the road with the only other win coming at USC and there just is not enough quality substance on their schedule to earn it an NCAA Tournament bid unless it rolls through the Pac 12 Tournament like it nearly did last year before losing to Oregon. 10* (554) Stanford Cardinal
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03-07-14 | Indiana Pacers +4.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 86-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Indiana has lost consecutive games for just the second time this season and I expect the Pacers to put another quick end to that here. Going back to December, they lost to Detroit and Miami and then won their next game by 33 points which coincidentally, also came against Houston. After being one of the top covers teams in the NBA through half of January, the Pacers have struggled to cash tickets as they are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games including a 2-8 ATS record on the road. There is a big difference though compared to tonight as Indiana was favored in all of those road games and was actually favored in all 21 of those games overall. Now we are catching a hungry team as an underdog where it is 5-2 ATS on the season. Houston meanwhile has won three straight games and going back, it is 16-4 over its last 20 games so it has been playing outstanding. A lot of the wins have been suspect though and going back, the Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win of more than 10 points. They are solid at home with a 24-7 record but they are an average 14-13-3 ATS as a home favorite. The Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points and fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having won five or six of their last seven games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 105-58 ATS (64.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (819) Indiana Pacers
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03-07-14 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Valparaiso -4 | Top | 74-57 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Valparaiso is coming off a 10-point win over Illinois-Chicago in the opening round of the Horizon Conference Tournament and I like the Crusaders to get the job done here. They won both meetings with the Panthers this season and by big margins as they won by 13 points at home and then followed that up with a 15 win on the road. You will hear about how tough it is to beat a team three times in the same season and a big reason for that is the losing team makes adjustments but not enough can be done here as the matchup is again very favorable for Valparaiso. A big reason for that is the size differential as Valparaiso won the rebounding battle in both meetings and by a combined 18 boards and a team cannot make adjustments for length down low. Additionally, After Tuesday's win over UIC, the Crusaders are 4-1 under Bryce Drew when facing a team for the third time that they have already beaten twice. Going back further, over the last 20 years, the Crusaders hold a 20-3 record when looking for their third win of the year against a team. The Panthers are coming off a win over Detroit, the second straight game in which they played the Titans and won. But this is not a team Milwaukee wanted to see as it is now 0-7 ATS in its last seven games in the second half of the season against teams outrebounding opponents by four or more rpg. Valparaiso also has a great situation on its side as we play against neutral court teams as an underdog revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points against opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. This situation is 77-31 ATS (71.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (848) Valparaiso Crusaders
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03-07-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks -3 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Dallas lost at Denver in its last game on Wednesday which snapped the Nuggets six-game losing streak and handed the Mavericks their third straight loss. These games are becoming more and more critical for Dallas which is sitting in the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference but not by much as it is ahead of Memphis by just one game. This is the largest losing streak of the season for the Mavericks which is pretty impressive as they have been able to avoid the big skids and remain with a double-digit win margin. This is the first game of a tough three-game stretch and heading home after two straight road losses, the Mavericks have to take care of home court. Portland meanwhile has won six of its last seven games following a 24-point home win over Atlanta on Wednesday. That was the Blazers fourth straight home game and this is just their second road game since February 12th. The Blazers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 10 points and going back are 8-19 in their last 27 road games following a double-digit win. Dallas meanwhile is 9-2 ATS when favored by fewer than four points this season and 18-9 straight up and ATS following a loss against the number. The Mavericks also fall into a great situation where we play on teams that are averaging 103 or more ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 140-76 ATS (64.8 percent) since 1996. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after trailing at the half by 15 or more points. 10* (816) Dallas Mavericks
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03-07-14 | New Jersey Devils v. Detroit Red Wings -106 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
We won with New Jersey on Tuesday as it rallied in the third period with three goals and scored the game winner with less than a minute remaining. Tonight we are backing Detroit to return the favor. The Devils have been off since that victory and are a solid 3-1 since the break but three of those games were at home and they come in on a 3-7 run in their last 10 road games and on the season they are just 12-21. Going back further, the Devils are 7-23 in their last 30 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. That is certainly a rarity for Detroit as it is nine games under .500 at home, a place where winning was customary almost every game played there. The Red Wings are coming off a loss at home last night against Colorado in overtime. They are 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss and they are 5-0 in their last five games after scoring two goals or less last time out. Additionally, the Red Wings have won their last two games playing with no rest including a big win at Ottawa following an overtime game against Montreal last week so there is no concern playing on back-to-back nights. Detroit has taken nine of the last 10 home meetings. While not confirmed, goalie Jonas Gustavsson should get the start tonight after Jimmy Howard played last night and Gustavsson is 4-0-1 with a 1.99 GAA in his last five matchups with New Jersey. 10* (54) Detroit Red Wings
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03-06-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Los Angeles Lakers +10.5 | Top | 142-94 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Motivation plays a big role in the NBA as in an 82-game season, it is impossible to be highly motivated in every one of those games while on the other side, teams get up for some games more than others and that is where we extract some great situational plays. The Lakers are getting a big number at home against their city rival and while it is also the Clippers home floor, the fan support makes a difference. We played against the Lakers last time out and they were handed a home loss against New Orleans which snapped a two-game winning streak. Part of the reason in going against them was going against that streak and part of the reason was a lookahead to this game. These teams last met in January and the Clippers rolled to a 36-point win which was the largest win by them in this series ever. Don't think the Lakers have forgotten that. While top to bottom, the Clippers are far and away better than the Lakers, this is where the motivation factor comes into play. The Clippers have won and covered five straight games and that is also playing into this very high number. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS as a home underdog of six points or more and we played on them in a similar role three weeks ago on a Thursday night when they were getting the same amount of points against Oklahoma City and covered easily. The Lakers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 120 points or more including going 8-1 ATS this season. We have a great contrarian situation on our side as we play against favorites of 10 or more points after three or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 123-76 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (506) Los Angeles Lakers
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03-06-14 | Weber State -2.5 v. Portland State | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The math is pretty simple for Weber St. It has clinched at least a share of the Big Sky Championship and will host the Big Sky Tournament next weekend in Ogden. With a win Thursday, the Wildcats will clinch the outright conference title. That is motivation enough but they are coming off a rare home loss against Northern Arizona last time out so they will be out to make up for that debacle and they are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss while going 4-1 ATS in those games. Weber St. has yet to win a game as an underdog this season, going 0-5 but they are 4-2 straight up and against the number as a road favorite. Overall, Weber St. is 4-8 on the road this season but three of those losses came at BYU, Colorado St. and UCLA while two others came in overtime in conference games so in reality, that record is not as bad as it seems. Portland St. is 14-13 overall and 9-9 in Big Sky play. The Vikings are currently in a four-way tie for sixth in the conference standings so this is definitely a big weekend as only seven team make the Big Sky Tournament but they are catching the wrong team at the wrong time. Portland St. is coming off a 3-1 roadtrip which has kept it in contention for a spot and while it is 10-5 at home, it has dropped two straight and overall is 6-6 ATS at home. Weber St. rolled to a 17-point win in the first meeting as a 14.5-point favorite and now this line is 12 points less than that which is a huge overadjustment. Weber St. is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games off a loss against a conference rival and it clinches outright tonight. 10* (575) Weber St. Wildcats
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03-06-14 | Miami Heat +2.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 87-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
This is the second meeting this season following last year's epic NBA Finals and this also marks the second opportunity for the Spurs to extract some revenge as they were unable to get it done in Miami as they lost by 12 points. Many will be on San Antonio because of the revenge angle but I am not one of them. The Spurs have not played much at home over the last month but they have won their last four games here and while the 21-8 home record looks solid, it is littered with cupcake wins as 13 of those have come against teams likely not making the playoffs this season and overall they have struggled against the top teams. San Antonio has gone 9-11 against teams ranked within the top ten in power rankings and it is 0-9 ATS this season playing against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. And we mentioned revenge but the Spurs are just 2-14 ATS this season when trying to revenge a loss. Miami meanwhile is coming off a loss at Houston on Tuesday and while it may have been looking ahead to this game, that loss is our gain here. The Heat never led in that game and that will only make them hungrier here. Miami has been the best team in the NBA following a loss over the last two seasons as it is 30-7 in its 37 games following a defeat. While the ATS record is not as good, it does not matter here since the Heat are getting points and over those 37 follow up games, Miami was an underdog twice and won both of those games outright. Additionally, the Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit win and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (501) Miami Heat
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03-06-14 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 168 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
It has been a rough stretch for Chicago as it has gone 1-2 since the extended Olympic break and going back further, it is 4-8 over its last 12 games since late January. The Blackhawks are coming off a 4-2 home loss against Colorado on Tuesday and while they are just 1-2 in their last three home games, this is only their fourth home game since January 19th. While the moneyline price is steep, we are going with the puckline as we are adding a lot of value to the home team in what I am expecting to be a dominating bounceback performance. Columbus has won three straight games since a loss at New Jersey in its first game after the break but only one of those has been on the road where the blue Jackets are a below .500 team. They are just 2-4 in their last six games on the highway and they have had no luck here or against Chicago for that matter as they have lost 11 straight meetings in this series with seven of those coming by two goals or more. For the Blackhawks, Corey Crawford will start and he is 9-0-0 with a 1.53 GAA against the Blue Jackets during Chicago's stretch of dominance in the series. Some do not like laying a goal and a half so the moneyline play can be substituted at your discretion but it is pricey and it is important to note that of Chicago's last 17 wins, 15 have come by two goals or more. 10* (10) Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 Goals
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03-05-14 | Utah v. California -3.5 | Top | 63-59 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Right now California is projected as a number 10 seed for the upcoming NCAA Tournament and it is in a position where it cannot afford anymore bad losses and this would qualify as one should it go down here. I do not see it happening with what is at stake and the situation the Golden Bears are in. Things were looking better prior to last week when a trip to Arizona resulted in two blowout losses by a combined 46 points against the Wildcats and Sun Devils. Those two losses dropped California to 9-7 in the Pac 12 so it will surely need to sweep the final two home games of the regular season prior to the Pac 12 Tournament. The Golden Bears have dropped four straight against the number and we are getting value because of it. Some consider Utah a bubble team based on its 17-9 record which includes an 8-8 mark in the conference. I do not however as the Utes cannot be considered because once they leave home, they cannot win. They are 18-2 at home but just 1-7 on the road with the lone road victory coming at 1-15 USC so that is meaningless. Give the Utes credit for hanging around in some games as they have a solid ATS record due to some closer than expected road losses but they are catching a poor number here and are facing California at the wrong time. The Golden Bears are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. 10* (766) California Golden Bears
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03-05-14 | Dayton v. St. Louis -7 | Top | 72-67 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
While the Atlantic 10 regular season title looked like a sure thing a week ago for St. Louis, that is no longer the case. The Billikens lost their second home game of the season last Thursday against Duquesne and they could not recover from that as they went to VCU two days later and were defeated by 11 points. Now their lead in the conference is just a game over St. Joseph's and while they have locked up a first round bye, they could feasibly fall into third place when it is all said and done. To avoid that, St. Louis needs to win tonight and with this being the final home game of the season, I expect one of the biggest efforts of the season. The Billikens have dropped their last six games against the spread and the four wins over that stretch were far from dominating but this is a great opportunity to get their drive back. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record. Dayton meanwhile is coming off a home win against Massachusetts to improve to 8-6 in the conference and going back, it has won seven of its last eight games after a poor start to the Atlantic 10 season. The Flyers are just 2-4 ATS in their last six road games and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Additionally, they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games revenging a loss. 10* (748) St. Louis Billikens
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03-05-14 | Sacramento Kings -3.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Typically we shy away from road favorites in the NBA but that is not the case here as Sacramento has a great opportunity to open this roadtrip with a resounding victory. The Kings are coming off a win against New Orleans on Monday and while the road has been a problem all season, we should not see any issues here. Sacramento has had its fair share of tough games as it has played the third toughest schedule in the NBA and while this one could bring that ranking down some, the Kings will take it. Milwaukee is coming off a 26-point win over Utah on Monday which was its most lopsided win of the season. The problem has been backing it up as the Bucks have not won consecutive games this season, going 0-11 in their first 11 games following a win and going back, they are 0-16 in their last 16 games following a win while against the number, they are 3-13 ATS in those contests. Milwaukee has the worst home record in the NBA and the Bucks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Sacramento falls into a terrific situation as we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 where the line is +3 to -3 after failing to cover four or five of their last six games playing against a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (713) Sacramento Kings
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03-04-14 | Tampa Bay Lightning +165 v. St. Louis Blues | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
We are getting a great price with Tampa Bay and while these big moneylines are normally connected to poor teams, the Lightning are not part of that category. Tampa Bay is sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference and trails Montreal by just two points for third place. This is the final game of a four-game roadtrip and the Lightning would like to finish with a win and gain a split before heading home for a six-game homestand. Their 17 road wins are tied for fifth most in the NHL so winning here, while a tough task, is not as daunting as it may seem/ St. Louis is tied for the second best record in hockey and its 22-5-3 home record is pretty outstanding but the Blues could be vulnerable here. While this is their first home game since February 8th, they are just 4-3 in their last seven home games with three of those wins coming in overtime or in a shootout so they have been far from dominating and should not be laying a price this big against a quality team. Tampa Bay is 11-5 in its last 16 games coming off a road loss while going 10-3 in its last 13 games after allowing four goals or more in its previous game. This includes going 4-0 in its last four games after allowing five goals or more. 10* (7) Tampa Bay Lightning
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03-04-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Cleveland Cavaliers +7 | Top | 122-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
After winning six straight games wrapping around the All Star Break. Cleveland lost three in a row before coming back to win two straight but it is coming off a blowout loss at Memphis in its last game on Saturday. The Cavaliers have gone 4-2 in their last six home games and while some of those wins were against bad teams, they have held their own against top rated opposition and that is proven by their 10-3 ATS record as home underdogs. Cleveland is 8-4 ATS in its 12 games this season when playing with more than one day of rest and adding some incentive here is the fact that Cleveland lost by 30 points in San Antonio in the first meeting and while it was a while ago, the Cavaliers have not forgotten. The Spurs are back on the road following a quick three-game homestand following their annual rodeo roadtrip. They went 3-0 in those games and the ATS record has mixed results as two of those games came within a half-point of the pointspread so they could have gone either way. Nonetheless, it is just a one game jaunt and with Miami coming to town on Thursday, this is a roadtrip that San Antonio would rather not be on especially knowing it has won eight straight meetings in this series. Expect a closer than expected game with a Cleveland outright win certainly not out of the realm of possibility. 10* (504) Cleveland Cavaliers
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03-04-14 | Central Florida v. Temple -3.5 | Top | 78-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
We won with Temple a couple weeks back as it defeated SMU at home as an eight-point underdog. Prior to that, the Owls had dropped four straight games and they once again find themselves on a four-game losing streak heading into their second to last game of the season. And what a horrible season it has been for Temple as it is 7-21 overall including a dismal 2-14 record in the AAC. While some teams across the nation with similar seasons have already tossed in the towel, that is not the case with the Owls as that comes down to coaching and head coach Fran Dunphy is extremely well respected and his players will not quit. It is Senior Night in Philadelphia and while the young Owls have only one senior on the roster, this is the last home game of they year so there will be a big motivational edge on their sideline. After winning at least 20 games the last two seasons, Central Florida is also having a rough first season in the AAC as it is 11-16 overall including a 3-13 record in the conference. The Knights are coming off a blowout loss at SMU and the highway has been especially tough as they are 1-7 in eight road conference games with the lone win coming by a point at South Florida. Central Florida is 4-10-1 ATS as an underdog this season while going 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record. Additionally the Knights are 0-7 ATS coming off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Temple meanwhile is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a double-digit loss at home and 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games revenging a loss. 10* (514) Temple Owls
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03-03-14 | Montana State +9.5 v. Montana | Top | 50-53 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
Despite this being a pretty big rivalry, Montana has owned this series of late. The Grizzlies have won seven straight meetings including the first one this season on the road in Bozeman to open the month. Montana comes into this game riding a three-game winning streak to move three games over .500 in the Big Sky Conference and it is once again being talked about to possibly have a shot at the regular season title after Weber St.'s shocking home loss this past weekend. This is a big game for both sides however. Montana St. has won four of its last six games to move a game over .500 and is just a game behind Montana. That sounds pretty impressive but making the conference tournament is no guarantee as only seven teams make it in and the Bobcats are part of a pack of four teams with that number of wins (joined by Sacramento St., Eastern Washington and Portland St.), with Idaho St. just one game off that pace. So basically, five teams with eight or nine wins are fighting for the final two spots and upcoming games at Northern Arizona and Sacramento St. are not easy ones either so going in there with a win here would be huge. While Montana has dominated the series of late, the road team has covered six straight games. The Grizzlies are just 3-10 ATS as a favorite this season while going 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games after a win by 15 points or more. Additionally, Montana St. falls into a solid situation as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 67 and 74 ppg going up against teams allowing between 67 and 74 ppg, after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 79-37 ATS (68.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (725) Montana St. Bobcats
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03-03-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets -3 | Top | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Brooklyn is back home following a lengthy roadtrip and it was a fairly successful one where it went 4-3 including wins in Denver and Milwaukee to close it out. The trek started before the All Star break so the Nets have not been at home since February 12th and after a slow start, they have been playing very well going 4-0 in their last four and 11-2 in their last 13 home games. That record includes some impressive wins over Golden St., Miami, Dallas and San Antonio. The recent roadtrip started out with a 16-point loss at Chicago so there is some extra incentive in play tonight. The Bulls are playing exceptional as they have won and covered four straight games but this is a good time to go against that run as we can buy low. Chicago has won two straight and four of its last five road games but it is still a game under .500 on the highway. It is coming off a nationally televised rout of the Knicks yesterday at home and while the Bulls have been decent playing with no rest, the majority of the success has come with that first game being on the road as they are 0-1-1 ATS when going from home to the road. This is a bad time to be facing the Nets as they are coming off that extended trip with payback in mind and they are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on one day of rest. Look for the home team to get the comfortable win tonight. 10* (704) Brooklyn Nets
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03-03-14 | Columbus Blue Jackets v. Toronto Maple Leafs -110 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
We are getting a solid price with Toronto that will be extremely hungry to grab a win tonight. The Maple Leafs rode a 5-1 run going into the extended Olympic break but they have dropped their first two games after the break, both coming on the road and both coming in overtime. Now they are back home where they are 21-10-1 this season including wins in seven straight and going back, the Maple Leafs are 22-5 in their last 27 home games against teams with a losing road record. Toronto will have some added focus as it will be out to avenge two losses this season against Columbus by a combined score of 11-2. This includes a home loss against the Blue Jackets in the last meeting 6-0 and it surely has not forgotten that one. Columbus meanwhile is coming off a home win over Florida on Saturday which came after dropping its first game out of the break, a 6-2 loss at New Jersey. The Blue Jackets are 1-4 in their last five road games and going back, they are 13-48 in their last 61 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. This is a big revenge game and Toronto has many favorable angles going its way as it is 12-3 revenging a loss of two goals or more this season while going 8-2 this season in a revenge game where it scored just one goal or less. The Maple Leafs also fall into a league-wide situation where we play on teams against the moneyline that are revenging a home loss of four goals or more, off a road loss against a division rival. This situation is 43-23 (65.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (52) Toronto Maple Leafs
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03-02-14 | Oregon State v. UCLA -13 | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
UCLA is coming off a loss against Oregon in overtime on Thursday, its second straight loss which is the first time the Bruins have lost consecutive games this season. They were shorthanded against the Ducks as their top two scorers Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson were suspended but both will be back tonight and I am expecting them to come back huge. UCLA is now 5-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread following a loss this season and don't let the big number scare you off as the Bruins are 8-1 ATS this season when laying double-digits. We played against Oregon St. in a very similar situation a few weeks back. The Beavers played at Arizona back on February 9th and the Wildcats, while coming off a win, were off a hard fought game against Oregon where they failed to cover the number in their fifth straight game, Additionally, Oregon St. was coming off a tough overtime loss at Arizona St. and this time around, it is coming off a double-digit win at UCS on Thursday which is not a good scenario as the Beavers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a road win by 10 points or more. On top of all this, the Bruins opened February with a road loss at Oregon St. by four points as Adams did not make a single field goal, going 0-9 from the floor making this a big revenge game for him as well. The Bruins travel to Washington next week to face the Huskies and Cougars making this the final home game of the season. UCLA is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games while the Beavers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. 10* (850) UCLA Bruins
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03-02-14 | Dallas Mavericks +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Dallas had its four-game winning streak snapped on Friday as it lost at home against Chicago after blowing a 16-point lead and I expect a big bounceback performance tonight. The Mavericks were red hot heading into the All Star break as they were on a 6-1 run but the time off did not kill any momentum as they are 4-2 since then and overall, they are 6-1 over their last seven road games. While that includes wins over some poor teams, Dallas defeated Memphis and Indiana and on the season, they are 12-6 ATS against winning teams on the highway. There is also the additional motivation of trying to defeat San Antonio as the Mavericks have dropped seven straight meetings against the Spurs. San Antonio has won two straight and four of five games since the all Star break as it is coming off consecutive 10-point home wins against Detroit and Charlotte. This is the first home game against a legitimate team since playing Chicago back on January 29th which resulted in a 10-point loss. San Antonio is just 5-10 ATS at home against teams with a winning record and while it is 20-8 at home, the ATS record is a much worse 11-17. The Mavericks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and they have won 16 of 23 games following a loss this season. San Antonio is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games after allowing 85 points or less including non-covers in its last six games this season. 10* (809) Dallas Mavericks
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03-01-14 | Washington Wizards v. Philadelphia 76ers +11 | Top | 122-103 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
We won with Washington on Thursday as the Wizards won in triple overtime at Toronto to make it five straight wins overall and on the season, they are now two games over .500. Call me a gluten for punishment but this line is laughable. Being a road favorite is one thing but being a double-digit road favorite is another, especially for a pretty average team. Washington is 4-0 straight up and ATS this season as a road favorite but the biggest number it has had to lay is 2.5 points so this is clearly unchartered territory. The Wizards have been a double-digit favorite only once this season, at home against the Sixers last month, and failed to cover and they are 0-6 ATS as favorites of seven or more points this season. We lost will Philadelphia in its last game as it got handed its 12th straight loss by Orlando. It was an unfortunate loss as the game was tied heading into the fourth quarter but tonight they catch a Wizards team that is overvalued and overtired for that matter. While Allen Iverson will not be playing, the fact that he is getting his jersey retiring should give the Sixers a little added mojo tonight as they look to avoid their longest home losing streak since 1997. The Sixers fall into two fantastic situations. First, we play against favorites of 10 or more points that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing 102 or more ppg, after scoring 100 points or more two straight games. This situation is 60-30 ATS (656.7 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on underdogs of 10 or more points after a loss by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more. This situation is 56-29 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Washington is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 road games after scoring 120 points or more. 10* (502) Philadelphia 76ers
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03-01-14 | Ole Miss v. Texas A&M -1.5 | Top | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
It has been an up and down season for Texas A&M and most of that has to do with the venue which is a common theme today in a lot of games. The Aggies have a very solid home court edge which has been the case for years as they are 15-2 at home this season including a 6-1 record in SEC home games. Conversely, they are 1-10 on the highway and not counting neutral site games, the home team is 14-5 ATS in 19 lined games on a campus facility. Overall ,the Aggies enter the weekend with a 16-12 overall record and a 7-8 mark in SEC play, leaving them in a tie for eighth place in the league standings but just one game out of fourth place. The top four teams in the conference receive a double bye in the SEC Tournament so the final three games for Texas A&M are huge and taking care of home court continues to be a must. Mississippi snapped its four-game losing streak with a comfortable home win against Alabama on Wednesday which was its third straight home game. Now the Rebels hit the road where they have dropped four straight games and are just 3-5-1 ATS on the season. Mississippi is 3-8-1 ATS following a win this season and it has not won consecutive games since late January, dropping three straight following a victory. That streak hits four after Saturday. 10* (618) Texas A&M Aggies
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03-01-14 | Cleveland State v. Valparaiso -1.5 | Top | 63-52 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Cleveland St. comes in off an overtime win over Youngstown St. on Tuesday and that officially locked up the number two seed for the upcoming Horizon League Tournament. The Vikings are one of the hottest teams in the conference as they are 9-1 over their last 10 games with the only loss coming against Green Bay. However, they are coming off a four-game homestand and this is the first road game since February 8th. Valparaiso blew a chance to secure the number three seed as it lost at Wright St. on Tuesday to fall into a tie with the Raiders at 9-6. The Crusaders can still get that third seed with a win here and a Wright St. loss at Illinois-Chicago and while the latter is unlikely, Valparaiso still has a lot to play for here. The Crusaders will host a first round game on Tuesday should it get the number four seed. The are playing with revenge from a 19-point loss at Cleveland St. last month and they do not want to go into the tournament on a losing streak. We are catching value with this number thanks to Valparaiso's 1-5 ATS run but the Crusaders are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record and they have won and covered four straight at home in this series. 10* (560) Valparaiso Crusaders
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03-01-14 | St. Joseph's v. St Bonaventure -2 | Top | 83-74 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
We played against St. Bonaventure on Wednesday as it went to LaSalle and lost by eight points. That was more of a play on the Explorers which had dropped five straight games and were on a 1-9-1 ATS skid. Now we are backing the Bonnies for a lot of the same reasons although not as extreme. The loss on Wednesday was their second straight loss which came after a three-game winning streak and going back they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. That includes three straight non-covers at home as well as an uncalled for outright loss on their home floor against 3-11 Rhode Island. St. Bonaventure should be pretty fired up to make up for that loss in what is their final home game of the season and travelling to VCU in the season finale makes this game ever bigger to avoid a possible four-game slide going into the Atlantic Ten Tournament. St. Joseph's is playing excellent right now as it has won five straight games to improve to 10-3 in the conference which is two games behind first place St. Louis and one game clear of Massachusetts and VCU. This is a big game for the Hawks in that regard but they are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Bonnies are 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (564) St. Bonaventure Bonnies
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03-01-14 | Auburn v. Alabama -5 | Top | 57-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
We won with Alabama last Saturday as it took care of Missouri at home and will be playing the Tide again for similar reasons. It was definitely expected to be a year in transition but sitting at 11-17 overall including 5-10 in the SEC was certainly not the plan. The big issues have been on the road where the Tide are 0-10 including 0-8 in conference games where six of their last nine games overall have taken place. Alabama is 5-2 at home in the SEC which isn't great by any stretch but those losses came against Florida and Tennessee and this is a major payback game as they lost at rival Auburn in the first meeting by 19 points. The Tigers are coming off a win against South Carolina which snapped a 1-4 run which followed three straight wins starting with that Alabama game. The lone road SEC win came at 3-12 South Carolina and Auburn is catching Alabama at a tough time. This is no doubt a very improved team from the last couple seasons but it is still a dreadful 1-14 in their last 15 SEC road games. Four of their last five games have been at home and while they are 3-0 ATS in their last three road games, they not getting nearly as many points as they should be in this spot. 10* (566) Alabama Crimson Tide
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02-28-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
After losing back-to-back games against Miami and Los Angeles, Oklahoma City was surely thought to break out of its slump against Cleveland on Wednesday. After all, the Thunder were 15-point favorites but instead, they dropped their third straight game, losing to the Cavaliers by 10 points. The three losses are the most in a row at home since April of 2009, the first year that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were in Oklahoma City together. To say the Thunder will be out for blood is an understatement. They are 9-5 both straight up and ATS following a loss this season while going 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit home loss. This situation is even better as Oklahoma City is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more. Memphis meanwhile had a tougher than expected time against the Lakers last time out as it won but only five points as a double-digit favorite. The Grizzlies have been playing excellent since early January as they are 17-5 over their last 22 games but three of those losses were on the road and some of the road wins were against weak Eastern Conference teams. One of the losses came here by nine points as an eight-point underdog and it happened that the Thunder were coming off a road loss at Washington. Now however they are catching them at an even worse time and they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games coming off a win while going just 11-17-1 ATS this season playing on one day of rest. 10* (804) Oklahoma City Thunder
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02-28-14 | Iona v. Manhattan -3.5 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
With Iona's win on Sunday at Marist, the Gaels locked up the regular season MAAC Championship and will be the number one seed in the upcoming MAAC Tournament that starts next week. Because of the new additions, the tournament has a different format this year with five teams getting a first round bye and Manhattan has already locked up one of those spots so many will think this game is meaningless. Think again. The Gaels are red hot right now as they have won 11 straight games and going back, they have won seven straight road games. Included in the current winning streak is a 12-point win over Manhattan as Iona used a 17-3 run in the second half to pull away and the Jaspers would like nothing more than some retribution. They were rolling along with six straight wins before losing at Siena last Friday but that should provide even more motivation and Manhattan is 5-1 this season following a loss with all five of those wins coming by at least seven points. Manhattan has won seven of its last eight games at home, all within the conference and it has won 11 of its last 13 MAAC games at Draddy Gymnasium, dating back to last season. Iona is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a road win by 10 points or more and 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games against teams outscoring their opponents by four or more ppg. Meanwhile, Manhattan is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning record and it falls into a great situation where we play against road teams after scoring 80 points or more in a conference win going up against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 80-47 ATS (63 percent) since 1997. 10* (830) Manhattan Jaspers
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02-27-14 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Cal-Irvine -3.5 | Top | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
UC-Irvine won for us last Saturday as we played against the Anteaters as they were in a horrendous scheduling situation. They won at Hawaii last Thursday in overtime and had to travel back to the mainland to face CS-Northridge two days later and as predicted, they ran out of gas late. Now with ample time off and back home, I expect a big rebound from UC-Irvine tonight. It is just 9-4 at home but three of those losses came early in the season in nonconference action and the Anteaters are 4-1 at home in the Big West with the only loss coming against Hawaii in overtime. They are tied for first place in the conference with tonight's opponents and they are a game ahead of Long Beach St., which happens to host the Rainbow Warriors tonight which are in fourth place. That makes this a big game for the Anteaters and a big reason is the fact they lost the first meeting against Santa Barbara this season so a loss here essentially would put them two games behind the 49ers because of the head-to-head sweep and the added motivation comes from the fact it was a 20-point blowout loss. The Gauchos meanwhile have won two straight and six of their last seven games with the only loss coming in overtime against CS-Northridge. While the schedule has been road heavy for the Anteaters, it has been home heavy for Santa Barbara as five of these last seven games have been at home and three of its last four take place on the road. The Gauchos are catching UC-Irvine at the wrong time as it is 6-3 this season following a loss and with three of its last four games taking place at home, a win here could sew up the conference championship considering the last three games are all against teams with losing conference records. The home team has covered five of the last seven meetings and that continues as revenge will be sweet tonight. 10* (556) UC-Irvine Anteaters
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02-27-14 | Tulsa v. UTEP -3 | Top | 65-60 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
We won with UTEP less than two weeks ago when it blew out Florida International at home and a big reason for that was that the Miners were coming off a loss in their last game. Well, the situation is similar here as they lost at Southern Mississippi last Saturday so they will be out to bounce back from that and they have been solid at it so far this season as the Miners are 5-0 ATS following a loss this season. UTEP is in a four-way tie for second place in C-USA with Southern Mississippi, Louisiana Tech and tonight's opponent Tulsa. Obviously that makes this game a big one at home where it is 12-4 on the season with the last three losses coming by a total of nine points. Adding to the importance of this game is that this is the final home game of the season for the Miners as their final two regular season games are on the road. Tulsa has been the hottest team in the conference as it has won five straight games with all five of those coming by double-digits. The issue with that however is that most of those wins have come against the teams at the bottom of the conference standings and the three road wins over this stretch have come against teams a combined 12-28. The Golden Hurricane have covered seven straight games and that is a preferential streak to go against as it adds considerable value the other way. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging between 67 and 74 ppg, after allowing 65 points or less five straight games. This situation is 48-22 ATS (68.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, UTEP is 10-2 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by 4.0 or more ppg this season and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after playing a road game. 10* (546) UTEP Miners
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02-27-14 | Washington Wizards +5.5 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 134-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Washington is over .500 for just the second time this season and just the second time in four years for that matter. The Wizards eclipsed the .500 mark back on February 3rd after a home win against Portland but they suffered a double-overtime loss against San Antonio next time out which sent them into a 1-5 tailspin. Since then however, Washington has won its last four games with the last loss coming at home against Toronto which puts them in a revenge spot tonight. I am not one to advocate road revenge but this one is a little different as Washington want to avoid going to .500 but more importantly, it wants to avoid the season sweep as the Raptors have won all three meetings so far this season. The Wizards are 16-4 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Toronto continues its stellar play as it has won three straight and six of its last seven games going back prior to the All-Star Break. The Raptors hold a five-game lead over the Nets in the Atlantic Division and while their 16-11 record at home is good, it isn't overly dominated as proven by their average 13-13-1 ATS record. Washington is one of only four teams in the Eastern Conference with a .500 or better record on the road and it has translated that into a lot of winning tickets. It is 11-3 ATS in 14 road games against teams averaging 99 or more ppg but more impressive is that the Wizards are a perfect 13-0 ATS in their 13 road games after playing a home game this season. 10* (503) Washington Wizards
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02-26-14 | Stanford v. Arizona State -1.5 | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
The huge double overtime win over Arizona did not provide much momentum for the Sun Devils as they hit the road for two games after that and lost both against Colorado and Utah, the latter coming by 23 points on Sunday. Now Arizona St. is back home for the first time since that court storming win and it brings in a 14-1 record on its home floor and in desperate need of a victory. The Sun Devils are one of six teams from the Pac 12 that are projected to make the NCAA Tournament but they are in the bottom half of that and they can ill afford many more losses along the way. The Sun Devils have had this one circled since last season as it was a game against Stanford that turned the tide for them as they lost at home which was the beginning of a monumental collapse as they lost six of their last eight regular season games and ended up missing the Big Dance. Now on top of it, they will be out to avenge a loss at Stanford earlier this month. Stanford meanwhile has won its last three games including an impressive home win against UCLA on Saturday. The Cardinal have been solid on the road at 6-3 and while they are 13-4 as favorites, they are just 3-4 as underdogs and with a short line here, a straight up loss likely means a non-cover as well. Arizona St. showed no effort in the last two games especially on offense where it scored 52 and 63 points but it is 6-0 ATS in after scoring 65 points or less two straight games over the last two seasons while going 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (788) Arizona St. Sun Devils
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02-26-14 | Baylor v. Texas -4 | Top | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
The Longhorns were on a 9-1 run before hitting the road last week and it wasn't pretty as they lost to Iowa St. and Kansas, the latter coming by 29 points. They are now in a tie for second place in the Big XII with the Cyclones while sitting just a half-game ahead of Oklahoma and Kansas St. so this is a very important game. After losing its Big XII opener at home against Oklahoma, Texas has won its last six home conference games including impressive wins against Iowa St., Kansas St. and Kansas. Overall, Texas is 14-2 at home and going back, the Longhorns are 13-2 against the Bears in Austin during the Rick Barnes era with eight of the 13 wins coming by double-digit margins. Baylor has turned things around as after losing seven of eight games, it has won its last four games including both on the road. This includes a 13-point win at West Virginia on Saturday as it won for just the second time as an underdog over its last six games. The Bears will be out for payback following a 14-point home loss to Texas earlier this season but I am not a pronouncement of road revenge and the other situations trump that anyway. Baylor is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 road games coming off a double-digit conference win. Texas meanwhile has covered four of its last five games at home while going back, it is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with a winning record. While the Longhorns are just 3-4 against the RPI top 25, they are 17-3 against everyone else and they became just the second team since the 1996-97 season to record four straight wins against AP Top 25 teams in four consecutive games. 10* (780) Texas Longhorns
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02-26-14 | Orlando Magic v. Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 | Top | 101-90 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
The Sixers are reeling with 11 straight losses but do they really deserve to be home underdogs here? While they are certainly struggling, I think the wrong team is favored in this game and the home/road split give that some justification. Philadelphia has eight home wins and it possesses the second worst home record in the NBA but Orlando has only three road wins and its 3-27 road record is in fact the worst road record in the league. The Magic have gone 16 straight road games without a win and on the season, they have been favored on the road only once and that resulted in a loss at Milwaukee, the team that has the worst home record in the NBA at 6-23. Additionally, Orlando has been horrendous against the bad teams away from home as it is 3-14 ATS this season against teams with a losing record. This is the third game in four nights for Orlando which is never a good spot for any team but it is even worse for the Magic which are 2-10 when playing with no rest including 1-7 in the second of back-to-back road games. The Magic have been without leading scorer Arron Afflalo for the last two games and he will be out once again tonight with an ankle injury. The Sixers fall into a great situation as we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing between 43.5 percent and 45.5 percent shooting going up against teams allowing between 45.5 percent and 47.5 percent shooting, after three straight games of allowing 47 percent shooting or higher. This situation is 37-12 ATS (75.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (702) Philadelphia 76ers
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02-25-14 | Drake v. Evansville -2 | Top | 48-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
Evansville enters this game on a three-game losing streak while also dropping seven of its last eight games so we are catching a solid number because of the recent struggles. The Purple Aces are 9-7 at home this season which is nothing spectacular but they have some added motivation for tonight's game. In the MVC opener back on New Year's Day, the Purple Aces were pounded at Drake by 28 points so they have had this game circled since then. Additionally, this is the last home game of the season for Evansville and that is an angle that we like to play especially with a short price. Evansville has won five of seven games when listed as a favorite while going 4-2-1 ATS in those games. Drake is coming off a loss as it got pounded at Wichita St., halting a two-game winning streak. That was the Bulldogs fourth straight loss on the road where it now sits 4-8 on the season. While they have won eight of 12 games when favored, they have dropped 10 of 14 games when getting points and going back, the Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, Evansville is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread while going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after trailing their last three games by five or more points at the half. 10* (536) Evansville Purple Aces
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02-25-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
We played on Cleveland on Sunday and it was a poor call as the Cavaliers lost at home against Washington, their second straight loss following a six-game winning streak. That dropped them to 14-14 at home and they are again getting points on their home floor which has been a very lucrative situation all season long. The first loss that Cleveland suffered after that extended winning streak was at Toronto on Friday as they lost by seven points as an eight-point underdog and as you can see, there is only a five-point swing with the line in the change of venue going back to Cleveland for this one. Toronto is 3-1 since the All-Star Break with wins against Cleveland, Washington and Orlando but this is just its second road game since February 7th and the highway has been a test as the Raptors are just 5-7 over their last 12 road games. They are a decent 5-3 ATS as road favorites but four of those wins came against teams that possess a worst record than Cleveland with three of those teams holding onto the last place in their respective divisions. Cleveland is 10-5 ATS as an underdog of fewer than six points this season and even after the loss to Washington on Sunday, it is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog. Meanwhile the Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games teams with a winning road record. The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. 10* (504) Cleveland Cavaliers
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02-24-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. New York Knicks +4 | Top | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The Mavericks is playing very well right now with wins in eight of their last 10 games but I'm not overly impressed. The best win of the bunch was a victory at Indiana but six of the other wins came against teams that have won 20, 22, 19, 19, 23 and 15 games and own six of the 10 worst record in the league. To its credit, Dallas is 5-2 against the number in its last seven games as a road favorite but this is not a good spot. This is the third game in four nights, all being road games and now they face a team once again in desperate need of a victory. The Knicks are coming off their second straight loss on Saturday as they were defeated by the Hawks by nine points after blowing a 17-point lead. They return home for the first time since before the All Star Break and while the home floor hasn't been very good this season, New York is 5-3 in its last eight games at MSG with two of those losses coming by four and five points including one in overtime. The Knicks have been horrible as home underdogs as they are just 1-9 straight up and against the number but the value is definitely on their side because of it. The best example is that they were getting 4.5 points in a recent home game against Miami and now they are getting close to the same line here which does not add up. New York has already taken out Dallas once this season by 12 points on the road last month and it is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 home games after playing a game as a road underdog and with a game at Miami on deck for Thursday, this is a must win. 10* (704) New York Knicks
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02-24-14 | Syracuse -3.5 v. Maryland | Top | 57-55 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
You may have to question how Syracuse comes out mentally against Maryland after losing a tough game at Duke Saturday night, its second straight loss. With head coach Jim Boeheim getting ejected for the first time in his career in the final seconds, I think that alone provides a fire that the team was in desperate need of after playing pretty lethargic for the last couple weeks. The Orange are in need of a victory after the two tough losses against Boston College and Duke and the road has been very good to them this season as they are 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the number while going 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS when favored. Maryland is coming off a win against Wake Forest to improve to 15-12 overall and 7-7 in the ACC. The Terrapins have had their struggles against the top teams however as they are 0-8 this season against teams ranked in the top 50 of the RPI and they have played only one of those teams at home, Pittsburgh, so their home record of 10-3 is extremely skewed. That happened to be the lone game Maryland was a home underdog. Syracuse meanwhile is 13-1 against the top 100 RPI with the line setback being that Duke game. Maryland has covered four straight games which is adding value to the Orange which come in 9-2 ATS when favored by single digits and they also fall into a great situation where we play on teams after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games going up against an opponent after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. This situation is 130-78 ATS (62.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (711) Syracuse Orange
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02-23-14 | Washington Wizards v. Cleveland Cavaliers +1 | Top | 96-83 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
The road team has won the first three meetings this season and Washington looks to make it a clean sweep on Sunday but the Cavaliers will have something to say about that. Cleveland had been on a six-game winning streak going back to before the All-Star Break but it lost its most recent game in Toronto by seven points. The Cavaliers have now covered seven straight games and while that is a streak that I typically like to fade, we won't do that here as they are the team getting the value. Cleveland has been a home underdog on 11 previous occasions and it has gone 10-1 ATS in those games and it has gone 5-0 ATS in its last five games against teams with a losing record. Washington is coming off a win last night at home against New Orleans, its second straight win following a three-game losing streak. The Wizards have a chance to get back over .500 on the season but they are in a tough spot coming off last night's win, as it was a close, hard fought game throughout and they were able to escape thanks to a Nene dunk with less than a second remaining. Washington has covered five straight games on the road but it was an underdog in all of those. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 that are coming off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, playing a losing team. This situation is 99-57 ATS (63.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (808) Cleveland Cavaliers
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02-23-14 | SMU +6.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 64-55 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
This is a big game for SMU to prove that it is worthy of getting back into the top 25 but more importantly, show that the NCAA Tournament is far from a question. The Mustangs are in third place in the AAC and it is important to stay there in terms of the upcoming conference tournament. While they have already clinched a first round bye, staying in third place means playing a team with a losing record in its first game as opposed to facing Connecticut or Memphis, which is hosting the tournament this year. SMU is coming off a win over Houston on Wednesday at home but failed to cover which was its first non-cover at home this season. The Mustangs have bounced back especially well this season, going a perfect 7-0 when coming off a game they failed to cover. This is a revenge game for Connecticut as it lost by nine points at SMU in the first meeting in January and while that is a motivating factor, I feel the Huskies are overpriced. They have been covering machines of late, going 10-2 ATS over their last 12 games but that is helping us here. Connecticut has been outstanding covering the big spreads, going 7-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite but it is a much more pedestrian 5-7 ATS when laying single digits. Additionally, the Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following four or more consecutive wins. The Mustangs fall into a great situation as we play against favorites with a winning percentage of .800 or better after having covered six or seven of their last eight games against the spread, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 111-67 ATS (62.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (829) SMU Mustangs
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02-23-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 | Top | 125-117 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Oklahoma City will be fired up today to make up for it loss in its last game on Thursday against Miami. It was one of the Thunder's poorest efforts of the season on both ends of the floor but that presents us with a great motivating opportunity today. Oklahoma City has scored fewer than 90 points seven times this season and after the first six instances, it has gone 6-0 in its next game, averaging 102.8 ppg in the process. The Thunder are 93 straight up and against the spread following a loss this season. The Clippers meanwhile have dropped two straight games and while they have yet to lose three in a row this season, they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. They have dropped consecutive games on four other occasions only to follow that up with a win next time out but twice that third game was at home and twice, it followed a loss against Miami so the circumstances are different here. Los Angeles is just 4-9 as an underdog this season and its 14-15 road record is hardly anything to get excited about. The Thunder are 1-3 ATS as favorites of fewer than six points this season while going back, they are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games coming off a loss as a favorite. While the Clippers have been solid as underdogs, they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games against teams in the second half of the season that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg. 10* (802) Oklahoma City Thunder
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02-22-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Golden State Warriors -5.5 | Top | 86-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Golden St. looks to make it three straight wins since the All-Star Break as it takes on Brooklyn which is playing just its second game since the break. The Warriors came back to defeat Houston in overtime on Thursday having a day off after that only helps our cause here. Adding to that is the fact the Golden St. will take to the road after this game for a six-game roadtrip against the Eastern Conference. After losing four of five games at home, the Warriors have won four of their last six home games with one of those setbacks coming against Miami by just one point. They have been fairly inconsistent since putting together a 10-game winning streak in December and January but I think this is a good spot to keep the momentum rolling. Brooklyn is coming off a lackluster six-point win over Utah, the third worst team in the Western Conference, which snapped a three-game road losing streak. After a 10-1 run in January, the Nets are just 5-5 over their last 10 games, both straight up and against the number and against the top ten in the NBA, they are just 8-9 on the season. Golden St. meanwhile is 19-5 against teams ranked outside the top 16, where Brooklyn sits, and it falls into a great situation where we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite and coming off an upset win as a home underdog. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (516) Golden St. Warriors
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02-22-14 | Cal-Irvine v. CS-Northridge +5.5 | Top | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
UC-Irvine leads the Big West Conference by a game over Santa Barbara and a game and a half over Long Beach St. and while the Anteaters no doubt would like to keep that lead, it won't be easy here. They find themselves in a very tough situation as they are coming off a win over Hawaii on Thursday which is a big deal going forward considering it was at Hawaii and came in overtime. Now UC-Irvine heads back to the mainland to play on the road again on very short rest after a long travel bout going to and coming back from Hawaii. The Anteaters have won all four games this season when playing as a road favorite but three of those came after a home game and while the other came after another road game, it was after playing at UC-Riverside, currently 3-9 in the conference. CS-Northridge has been up and down this season and it has been mostly down of late as it is 3-8 over its last 11 games and all three of those wins were in overtime on top of it. The good news is that they are 9-3 at home while covering four of the seven lined games and the Matadors are getting a very good number here based on the overall and recent play from both sides but it is not taking the situation into consideration. The Matadors are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while going 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, the Anteaters are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (660) CS-Northridge Matadors
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02-22-14 | Missouri v. Alabama -1 | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
It has been a rough season for Alabama which not many saw coming. It was definitely expected to be a year in transition but sitting at 10-16 overall including 4-9 in the SEC was certainly not the plan. The big issues have been on the road where the Tide are 0-9 including 0-7 in conference games where five of their last seven games overall have taken place. Alabama is 4-2 at home in the SEC which isn't great by any stretch but one of those losses came against Florida and the other came against Tennessee, two days after a debacle against rival Auburn. The best the Tide can do now is play spoiler and will be out to avenge a 21-point loss at Missouri just over a month ago. Alabama has played the third toughest schedule in the nation. The Tigers are projected to be in the NCAA Tournament but they are not hanging on by much. That obviously makes this a big game but Missouri is a below average road team and it has lost four of its last five on the highway. Making it tougher is the fact the Tigers are coming off a three-game homestand all of which resulted in wins but were decided by a total of nine points. They have not won four consecutive conference games since 2011-12 and this is their first trip to Tuscaloosa in what is still a very tough environment for road opponents. Missouri is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a win. 10* (642) Alabama Crimson Tide
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02-21-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Phoenix Suns +1.5 | Top | 85-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
The rodeo roadtrip finally comes to an end for the Spurs and they once again are having a successful trek. They are 6-2 through the first eight games after coming out of the All Star Break with two upset wins over the Clippers and the Blazers. Going back, San Antonio is 27-8 since 2010-11 on this extended roadtrip and it has won the finale each of the last two years. The difference in those years however is that the Spurs were coming off a loss going into that last game and that makes it a huge difference. San Antonio is 22-7 on the road this season which is the best road record in the NBA and while that is tough to go against at a short price, I feel the spot is ideal for Phoenix. The Suns are coming off wins over Denver and Boston to open the second half to move 11 games over .500 and continue to hold down the sixth spot in the Western Conference but not by much as every game is huge at this point. The Suns are 15-8 ATS against winning teams this season while going 20-9 ATS as underdogs. They will be out to avenge two earlier losses against San Antonio and are in great shape to do so with the Spurs pretty banged up still. Phoenix has two awesome situation of their side as well. First, we play against teams that are coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog going up against an opponent after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 41-17 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss and playing their third or less games in 10 days. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1996. Expect the minor upset on Friday. 10* (816) Phoenix Suns
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02-21-14 | New York Knicks -2.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 121-129 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Is the wrong team favored here? It may seem that way looking at the home/road splits but the Knicks are the right team to be laying points and it certainly isn't much. They clearly have a lot more at stake and with a game at Atlanta tomorrow, making it four games in five nights, this one is a very important game. It has been a rough season for New York no doubt as it is arguably the biggest disappointment in the NBA but the one thing the Knicks have been able to succeed at is taking care of business in these spots as they are 5-1 straight up and against the number as road favorites. The Magic are two games under .500 at home which is pretty good considering their 3-25 record on the road which includes losses in their first two road games after the All Star Break. They have won five of their last six home games and that will get the attention of New York and going back, the Magic are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. New York is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 and falls into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are playing their sixth or less game in 14 days, with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 91-48 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1996. New York is 3.5 games behind Charlotte for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and while these are the games the Knicks have been winning as mentioned, they cannot afford to let these go especially with a very tough upcoming slate over the next nine days. 10* (807) New York Knicks
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02-21-14 | VCU v. Massachusetts -1 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Massachusetts is coming off a big road win at George Washington last Saturday to improve to 7-4 in the Atlantic Ten. After a 16-1 start, the Minutemen has stumbled with just a 4-4 record over their last eight games and while St. Louis has a firm hold on first place in the conference, Massachusetts is still in great shape to lock down second place but it has to start with a win here. The Minutemen last played at home nine days ago and that resulted in a loss against George Mason which came into that game 1-8 in the conference so they are going to be out to make up for that debacle in front of their home crowd. Admittedly, Massachusetts has struggled as a home favorite but most of the lines have been large and this is the shortest price it has had to put down on its home floor. It is worth noting that the Minutemen are 5-0 ATS this season as favorites of fewer than five points. VCU meanwhile is coming off a hard fought loss against St. Louis last Saturday to fall to 8-3 in the conference, still good for a tie for second place with St. Joseph's. While the Rams are a perfect 13-0 at home, they are just 4-4 on the road and while they are 3-0 ATS as underdogs, all of those games they were getting more points than here. Additionally, they are 1-4 ATS following a loss this season and going back they are 2-9 ATS after a defeat so they have not recovered very well and this is not a good situation as they are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams that are allowing 42 percent shooting or less. The Minutemen will be out for retribution as well as they were hammered by 18 points at VCU last year and then lost by nine points in the A-10 Tournament which took away an NCAA Tournament bid and sent them to the NIT. 10* (822) Massachusetts Minutemen
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02-20-14 | Gonzaga v. BYU -1.5 | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
Gonzaga has already clinched the West Coast Conference title with its win on Saturday at home over Loyola-Marymount despite still having four games left on the schedule. The Bulldogs are 13-1 in the WCC and that last win came on Senior Night where emotions were high and this is the first of four straight road games to close the season. Even though it is against a tough opponent, this is a slight letdown situation. It has been an up and down season for BYU but it has been mostly up of late as the Cougars are 10-3 in their last 13 games following a 0-2 start in the conference. All five of those losses have come on the road and they are a perfect 7-0 at home in conference action while being 12-1 at home overall with the lone defeat coming against Iowa St. by just a bucket. This is a revenge game for BYU which lost the first meeting this season by 15 points and going back, it will also be out for payback from last season where it lost to the Bulldogs are home by five points, one of only three home losses all season. The Cougars were possibly going to be without guard Kyle Collinsworth tonight but he has been upgraded to probable after hurting his knee last game. This game falls into a preferred angle where we play on unranked home favorites against ranked road underdogs. Gonzaga is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 road games after two straight wins by 10 points or more and 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. BYU meanwhile is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games after a win by six points or less. 10* (550) BYU Cougars
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02-20-14 | Denver Nuggets -4 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 101-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
We played on Denver in the first meeting between these two teams and despite a dominating effort, the Nuggets failed to cover by a bucket. They are in desperate need for a win and this is a great spot for that to happen. Denver lost its last four games prior to the All Star Break and then opened the second half with an overtime loss against Phoenix. The Nuggets overcame a 14-point deficit in that one but fell short and now sitting four games under .500, these are the games they need to win. They are 4-11 ATS as a home favorite but 5-3-1 as a road favorite, winning six of those nine games. Milwaukee is coming off a rare victory as it defeated Orlando in its first game after the break. The problem for the Bucks is that they cannot put any runs together as they have yet to win consecutive games the entire season, going 0-9 following a win while covering just two of those games. They have struggled against the better and deeper Western Conference, going 1-19 overall and while they have a few covers as a home underdog, they are just 3-8 as home underdogs against the West. Milwaukee also falls into a negative situation where we play against home teams that are getting outscored by their opponents by nine or more ppg going up against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more three straight games. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1996. Also, Denver is 10-1 ATS in it last 11 road games after allowing 100 or more points in five or more straight games while Milwaukee is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. 10* (503) Denver Nuggets
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02-19-14 | Arizona State v. Colorado -4 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
You have to give a lot of credit to Colorado as it continues to play very solid since the loss of star guard Spencer Dinwiddie. He went down at Washington 10 games ago and was lost for the season with a knee injury but the balance of this continues to keep things going in the right direction. The Buffaloes are 15-1 at home and that one loss came against UCLA which was the first game right after that Washington game so they can be given a mulligan for that. This is one of the toughest places for opponents to play and going back, Colorado is 60-8 (.882) at the Coors Events Center under head coach Tad Boyle. In the last four years, the Buffalos are 15-3 in games when a home game follows a road or neutral court loss and they will be playing with revenge here. They lost at Arizona St. back in January by 21 points and in addition to that, they will be out to make up for a one-point overtime loss at home nearly a tear ago to the day. Arizona St. enters this game following that double-overtime thrilling win over Arizona at home on Friday. That victory was huge for the Sun Devils and it can be considered huge for us here as it is keeping this line down lower than what it should be. Arizona St. has won six of its last seven games overall but five of those wins came at home and it is coming off a three-game homestand. On top of, three of the last four wins have come in overtime with the other one coming by just a bucket. Colorado is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after playing two consecutive road games while going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games revenging a road loss. Arizona St. meanwhile is just 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games coming off an upset win as an underdog. 10* (784) Colorado Buffaloes
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02-19-14 | Boston Celtics +8 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Phoenix is coming off a big win last night against the struggling Nuggets. The Suns were able to overcome a five-point deficit with 35 seconds remaining to force overtime and they eventually won by five points. It was a taxing win and despite having a lot of time off prior to the game because of the All Star break, they are in a tough spot tonight in trying to get re-energized. A road win is big enough but with games against San Antonio and Houston on deck, this is a game that Phoenix could very be far from focused on and that gives us an ever better chance with the big underdog. Boston went through a horrendous run from mid-December through January but is has turned things around in February with a 4-2 record and while those wins were against some bad teams, we are not even asking the Celtics to win here. The Celtics have been very competitive on the road, going 7-2 ATS over their last nine games including covers against Miami, Portland, Golden St. and the Clippers. After destroying the books with a 22-7-1 ATS record through their first 30 games, the Suns have come back to earth with a 12-10 ATS mark over their last 22 games. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when their starting five combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. 10* (713) Boston Celtics
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02-19-14 | Detroit Pistons +3 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Detroit never led last night, fell down by 19 points and could not recover as they started the second half off hardly the way they wanted. The Pistons now have a chance for some immediate revenge as they hit the road for the second game of this home-and-home set. Detroit had won three straight games before losing its final game before the All Star Break against a resurgent Cleveland team and now it will be out to snap a two-game skid as well as a four-game road losing streak. I feel they are in great position to do so. Winning consecutive games has been a challenge for Charlotte all season long and since late December, it is 2-9 in its last 11 games following a victory. This includes a 0-4 record when winning on the road and coming back home for its next game and this is a very similar situation that we have seen before. The Bobcats defeated Detroit on the road back in December and came home the next night only to lose to Utah. Charlotte is 3-12 straight up and 4-10-1 ATS when playing with no rest including going 1-5 straight up and 1-4-1 ATS when going from the road to home. While Charlotte has won both meetings in Detroit this year, the Pistons are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in Charlotte and falls into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss, playing three or less games in 10 days. This situation is 37-12 ATS (75.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (703) Detroit Pistons
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02-18-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -4 | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
After losing consecutive games against Denver and Miami, the Clippers won their final three games prior to the All-Star break and they look to keep that rolling at home. The schedule has been on their side as they have been home since February 5th and this is the last home game before going out on a three-game roadtrip with Memphis and Oklahoma City being the first two stops. The good news is that it does start until Friday so there will no doubt be full attention here. The Clippers won the first meeting against San Antonio this season by 23 points at home but the Spurs returned the favor by winning the rematch at home by 24 points. Los Angeles has a comfortable five-game lead over Phoenix in the Pacific Division but it needs to continue to keep moving up. The Spurs are 4-2 through their first six games of this rodeo roadtrip and the break came at good time to rest some nagging injuries, namely Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. While San Antonio has the best road record in the NBA, it has come mostly from beating the bad teams as it is 19-4 as a road favorite but just 1-3 as a road underdog. The Spurs are 0-3 ATS as underdogs of fewer than seven points and its seven wins against the top ten teams in the NBA is tied for the fewest among the Western Conference teams that are in the top ten. The Clippers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss while the Spurs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (518) Los Angeles Clippers
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02-18-14 | Miami Heat -1.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
Miami closed the first half strong with wins in five of its last six games including three of four on this current roadtrip. The Heat are two and a half games behind Indiana for the top seed in the Eastern Conference and that is a huge spot to attain as the team with the home court edge in the Eastern Conference finals will have a big edge. Miami has a game at Oklahoma City on Thursday so it knows it has to take care of business here. Ever since losing in the NBA Finals in 2011 against Dallas, Miami has won the last five meetings with the Mavericks. Dallas went into the break with some positive momentum as well as it is 6-1 over its last seven games including a big win at Indiana right before the break. While they have three straight home games, those wins for the Mavericks were against Utah, Cleveland and Sacramento, not exactly the toughest of competition. They have struggled against the top teams, going 1-7 ATS at home against teams with a winning record and as a home underdog this season, they are 0-4 both straight up and against the number, losing all of those games by at least six points and by an average of 9.5 ppg. Miami meanwhile is 17-5 this season against the top half of the NBA while going 7-3 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Heat are 15-4 against the west and they once again take care of business. 10* (513) Miami Heat
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02-18-14 | Villanova -4.5 v. Providence | Top | 82-79 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
We played against Villanova on Saturday as it got thumped by Creighton for a second time this season. Plain and simple, that is not a very good matchup for the Wildcats but in tonight's case, it is the opposite. Villanova won the first meeting against Providence by 30 points and while it sets up a big revenge situation for the Friars, I feel that the matchup itself is more of a factor. The Wildcats have lost only three games all season, twice to Creighton as mentioned and the third against undefeated Syracuse. They were able to follow up those two previous losses with wins next time out and like this, both of those wins were on the road as well. Providence is meanwhile is coming off a win at home against DePaul but that is not saying a lot as the Blue Demons are 2-11 in the Big East. That win snapped a three-game skid for Providence and it has been a rough stretch after a hot start. The Friars won five straight games in the conference but have only won twice over their last six games and both wins were against DePaul. Here we play against underdogs that are revenging a road loss of 20 points or more going up against an opponent coming off a road loss against a conference rival. This situation is 93-47 ATS (66.4 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Villanova is 15-4 ATS as a favorite this season while going 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (527) Villanova Wildcats
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02-18-14 | Texas v. Iowa State -4.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
We lost with Iowa St. on Saturday as the Cyclones won but failed to cover the number as they blew several double-digit leads and went on to win by just six points. It was been a frustrating run for Iowa St. backers as they have been on a horrible stretch at the betting window as they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games and the only cover came at Oklahoma St. as an underdog. Iowa St. is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite so we are going contrarian here as it sets us up with great value. My numbers have this line at -7 so we are catching over a bucket of value and despite the recent struggles, the Cyclones are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning road record. Texas continues it solid play as it is 20-5 overall including 9-3 in the conference following consecutive wins over Oklahoma St. and West Virginia. The Longhorns are 3-2 on the road in the Big XII but the wins were against 0-12 TCU by just five points, a mediocre West Virginia team that was coming off a tough one-point home loss against Oklahoma St. two days earlier and Baylor which was in the midst of a five-game losing streak. Texas won the first meeting this season at home by 10 points as a 1.5-point underdog and that also shows us how the value is on our side as we are buying the Cyclones low right now. Iowa St. is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 home games off a home conference win while Texas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. 10* (526) Iowa St. Cyclones
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02-17-14 | Oklahoma State +4.5 v. Baylor | Top | 64-70 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
We won with Baylor on Saturday as the Bears took care of Kansas St. although it needed double overtime to do so. Now the Bears have a quick turnaround from that intense game and I feel they are in a very difficult spot tonight. While we played on the Bears Saturday, it was also equally a play against Kansas St. as it came in to that game following an upset home win over Kansas in overtime which snapped a six-game skid in the series. Fans rushed the floor after the game signifying just how big of a victory it was and in turn, triggering a play against them next time out. Baylor has won consecutive conference games for the first time all season and it will be hard pressed to make it three straight. Oklahoma St. opened the season 15-2 but a two-point loss at Kansas has triggered a freefall. The Cowboys have lost seven of their last eight games including six in a row following another heartbreaker, this one by three points at home against Oklahoma on Saturday. While they have gone 0-7 ATS in their last seven games, they have been underdogs only once during this stretch and that was against Texas, which is 9-3 in the Big XII and 20-5 overall. Here, Oklahoma St. is getting the same amount of points against a team that is five games worse that the Longhorns and that doesn't add up. Obviously, the Cowboys are again going to be without Marcus Smart and his absence is huge but this is a game that the rest of the team steps up in what is now a must win game. Baylor is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 77 or more ppg. 10* (707) Oklahoma St. Cowboys
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02-17-14 | Delaware v. Towson -3.5 | Top | 63-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
We won with Towson on Saturday as it easily took carte of William & Mary on the road to take over sole possession of second place in the CAA. The Tigers bounced back off an embarrassing loss against UNC-Wilmington in their previous game and they should be pretty fired up to be back home as this is the lone homer game n a stretch of six games as the next three contests all take place on the highway. Towson is 13-1 at home with the lone loss coming against Northeastern as it shot just 31.9 percent from the floor so that is considered an anomaly. Delaware has won 13 straight games including its first 11 in the CAA but this is the spot that the Blue Hens will suffer their first conference loss. The schedule has been on their side so far as seven of those first 11 conference games have been at home including the last four which makes this the first roadtrip for Delaware since January. The Blue Hens have obviously taken care of business in their four road games but the opposition has been less than stellar in what is a weak conference to begin with and this poses as the biggest road test thus far. Towson lost the first meeting at Delaware by seven points which sets up a revenge situation and the Tigers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games revenging a loss. Meanwhile Delaware is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after covering six or seven of its last eight games against the spread and they will again be without Marvin King-Davis and Jarvis Threatt who are serving month long suspensions. The absence of Threatt is huge as he is sixth in the CAA in scoring at 17.9 ppg and his 5.4 apg lead the conference. 10* (704) Towson Tigers
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02-16-14 | Villanova v. Creighton -3 | Top | 80-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Creighton is coming off another close win, this one at Butler, but wins are wins and the Bluejays improved to 10-1 in the Big East. Now they return home where they have been perfect, going 13-0 on the season and they are getting a very good number on Sunday. Creighton has dropped four straight against the number but this is the fewest points is has put down at home this season and while the opposition is the main reason for that, the Bluejays can keep the perfect run at home going with an easy win. Additionally, a win would be Creighton's 16th straight home win, matching the program's longest streak in its 11-year run at CenturyLink Center Omaha. Even more impressive is that Creighton has won 21 straight regular-season home games against teams from BCS leagues and those 21 wins have been by an average of 11.8 ppg, with 13 coming by double-digits, and just one decided by fewer than six points. Villanova is certainly no slouch and at 22-2, it is sitting at fifth in the nation while its 10-1 Big East record is good enough for first place. The lone loss came against Creighton however as the Wildcats lost the first meeting by 28 points so they will certainly have some added incentive here and while Villanova will be out for revenge here, as stated many times, I am not a proponent of road revenge. Creighton falls into a simple contrarian yet effective situation as we play on teams after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games going up against an opponent after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. This situation is 126-73 ATS (63.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (866) Creighton Bluejays
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02-16-14 | SMU v. Temple +9 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
Not many people saw this coming for Temple. Despite losing some key players from last season, the Owls were not expected to struggle this bad in their first season in the AAC as they are 1-10 while going just 1-12 over their last 13 games. Temple lost on Friday against Louisville in a rescheduled game from the night before which made it four consecutive double-digit losses. So why play them here? The Owls are getting a very favorable line. The second double-digit loss during this stretch was at SMU and they were getting 12.5 points in that game. Now they are getting just four points less at home only 10 days later. The Mustangs are ranked for the first time since March of 1985 so the job that Larry Brown has done for this program cannot be overstated. But with the new found success comes popularity and in turn, bad lines. SMU is 11-1 in its last 12 games against the number but now it is laying its biggest number on the road since laying double-digits at Illinois-Chicago and not covering. While the Mustangs are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite, they are just 3-2 ATS as a road favorite which shows a huge disparity. As mentioned, Temple lost the first meeting this year and it is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games revenging a road loss while going 15-4 ATS in its last 19 home games coming off a loss by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Owls fall into a terrific situation where we play against favorites after two consecutive covers as a favorite going up against an opponent coming off a home loss by 20 points or more. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (858) Temple Owls
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02-15-14 | Florida v. Kentucky -1.5 | Top | 69-59 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
We played against Florida in its last game against Tennessee and while the Volunteers had their chances, the Gators were able to do enough to pull away late. Now they have a greater challenge as they hit the road again to face Kentucky which is once again playing very well. Florida has won 16 straight games so it too is playing very well but there have not been many challenges of late as the SEC as a whole is struggling as it is the sixth ranked conference in the country. The Gators are just 3-4 ATS against winning teams this season and head to Lexington where the Wildcats have yet to lose. Kentucky is a perfect 14-0 at home and it certainly can be argued that it hasn't been challenged either based on the weak SEC argument but just coming home should be a huge edge as four of the Wildcats last five games have been on the road. Playing here has been quite the success for Kentucky as it has won 22 straight home games and under head coach John Calipari, it is an incredible 81-2 at Rupp Arena. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record and we look for them to snap the Florida winning streak on Saturday. 10* (648) Kentucky Wildcats
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02-15-14 | Florida Intl. v. UTEP -11.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
UTEP had a chance to take over first place in C-USA on Thursday but instead, it threw up an airball and lost home against Florida Atlantic as a 10.5-point favorite. That dropped the Miners to 8-2 in the conference and snapped an eight-game winning streak in the process. Normally, this would be a game to look past but coming off that loss, coupled with the fact that four of the final five games are on the road, UTEP knows it needs to take care of business here. We played against Florida International on Thursday and lost as Texas-San Antonio had a horrible shooting night. We are playing against the Golden Panthers once again however as they come in a clear underdog and they are catching the Miners at the wrong time. They have covered three straight games but the lines were small and Florida International is 0-5 ATS this season when getting eight or more points while going 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record. UTEP meanwhile is 4-0 ATS this season coming off a loss while going back, it is 11-1-1 ATS in its last 13 games following a loss. This has the look of a absolute blowout. 10* (650) UTEP Miners
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02-15-14 | Kansas State v. Baylor -4.5 | Top | 73-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
It has been a very disappointing season for Baylor. The Bears are 15-9 overall but sit just 3-8 in the Big XII which is a horrible turnaround considering the Bears were ranked seventh in the nation just over a month ago. Baylor is coming off a road win at TCU which is certainly nothing to be gloating about but it was a much needed blowout win that can instill some confidence into a team in desperate need of it. After opening the season 9-0 at home, Baylor has lost its last four games at the Ferrell Center including an ugly blowout against Kansas last time out. Baylor is now in a good spot to break that skid. Kansas St. comes in to this game following an upset home win over Kansas in overtime and even though it was five days ago, it will be tough to recover from that win over their rival which snapped a six-game skid in the series. Fans rushed the floor after the game signifying just how big of a victory it was and in turn, triggering a play against them next time out. The Wildcats are just 1-4 on the road with the only victory coming at TCU. While they Bears have struggled at they are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (596) Baylor Bears
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02-15-14 | Wyoming v. San Jose State +9.5 | Top | 46-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
We won with Wyoming in its last game as it upset fifth ranked San Diego St. at home on Tuesday in a game it pretty much controlled throughout. The Cowboys shot an amazing 58 percent from the floor against one of the best defensive teams in the nation and now it has to hit the road in an ultimate letdown spot as there is absolutely no chance they can get up for this game at San Jose St. Making matters worse, they have consecutive revenge games next week and at 3-7 on the road, this is big number to be laying no matter who the opponent may be. In this case, it is the Spartans which come in with a winless conference record, sitting at 0-12. They have gone sit straight games without a cover but all that does is add to the value as the public will be lining up behind the Cowboys, especially after a big win. While San Jose St. is winless, it has been competitive at home for the most part, losing three conference games by four points or less. Wyoming is 0-3 ATS on the road against losing teams this season and 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games following a win. The Cowboys won the first meeting at home but by just nine points and I expect the Spartans to keep this one even closer. 10* (576) San Jose St. Spartans
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02-15-14 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -10 | Top | 64-70 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Iowa St. is coming off a beating at West Virginia on Monday as it lost by 25 points which halted momentum from a three-game winning streak. Now back home, I expect the Cyclones to be one angry team and take their frustrations out before a big game on Tuesday against Texas. Iowa St. is 11-1 at home this season with the one defeat coming against Kansas back in early January. Iowa State leading the Big 12 lead and fourth nationally averaging 84.7 ppg. The Cyclones have scored 80 or more points in 16 games this season and are the only team in college basketball to score 70 or more in every game. The big thing here is a better defensive effort after allowing 102 points against the Mountaineers. Texas Tech has won three straight games, the last two being upsets over Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. but I am expecting a big letdown here. The Red Raiders are just 1-4 this season following consecutive wins and their 2-6 road record does not instill la lot of confidence. The Red Raiders are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following an ATS win while the Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss of more than 20 points. 10* (524) Iowa St. Cyclones
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02-14-14 | Detroit v. Oakland -3 | Top | 82-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Oakland has lost three straight games but I like the chances for a bounceback and a comfortable home win. The Golden Grizzlies latest setback came at Valparaiso by just three points, which was the second road loss in the three-game stretch. The lone home loss came eight days ago against Cleveland St. and it was a game they never should have lost. The Golden Grizzlies held an eight point lead with 6:27 to play but the Vikings answered with a 18-4 run over the next five minutes to pull away. Oakland is now 3-2 in home conference games and 8-3 overall and let's forget that one of those home losses came against Michigan St. by just four points. Detroit meanwhile is coming off two straight wins as it snuck out a two-point win at Valparaiso and then took down Youngstown St. in its next game in overtime, also by two points. The Titans have yet to win three straight games against Division I opponents this season however as it is 0-2 following consecutive wins. The Titans are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage between .200 and .400 while Oakland is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games when the line is between +3 and -3. 10* (810) Oakland Golden Grizzlies
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02-13-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers +12.5 | Top | 107-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
Obviously, Oklahoma City is the better team here but that is being taken into consideration in this line, one I feel that is overinflated in this spot. The Thunder are coming off a big win at Portland on Tuesday that wasn't decided until the final seconds and while there has been a day off in-between, getting up for this game, especially with the way the Lakers are struggling, will be a challenge. Oklahoma City has won two straight and four of five and while it owns one of the best ATS records in the league, this is the most it has been favored by on the road this season and overall, the Thunder are just 5-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite. The Lakers lost again on Tuesday, making it two straight losses and going back, they are 2-9 in their last 11 games. The Lakers have lost six straight games at home which is tied for the longest home skid in franchise history and for nothing else, we will see a full out effort by Los Angeles to avoid be saddled with the all time record. The injuries remain the big issue and while this team is far from full strength, this is still a team with NBA players in backup roles. Los Angeles is 8-5-1 ATS as a home underdog this season and it is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games after a loss by 15 or more points. Meanwhile, the Thunder are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games coming off a road win by three points or less. Additionally, the Lakers fall into a great situation where we play on teams that are revenging a road loss of 20 points or more and coming off a loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1996. 10* (504) Los Angeles Lakers
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02-13-14 | St John's v. Seton Hall +1.5 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
St. John's has been a very streaky team this season. After opening up 0-5 in the Big East, the Red Storm have gone 5-1 in their last six games with the only loss coming at Creighton by just three points. They have covered five straight games and that is no doubt helping us with the line for tonight as St. John's is a road favorite for only the second time this season. The first resulted in an outright loss at DePaul and I expect another outright loss tonight. The Red Storm were favored by 4.5 points at home in the first meeting against Seton Hall which makes this number off by a significant amount. The Pirates lost that first meeting by a point so they will be out for some retribution here. They have dropped two straight games including a home loss against Marquette on Tuesday which was their fourth loss in five home Big East games. Still, Seton Hall is 10-5 ATS over its last 15 games and on the season, it is 7-3 ATS as an underdog including a perfect 3-0 ATS when getting fewer than five points. The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series and we will see that trend continue Thursday night. 10* (542) Seton Hall Pirates
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02-13-14 | Florida Intl. v. Texas-San Antonio +1.5 | Top | 80-72 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is the first time this season we have backed Texas-San Antonio and while the Roadrunners have struggled this season, they are in a solid spot on Thursday. They are coming off back-to-back road losses which is no surprise as they are 1-9 on the highway this season but a much more respectable 6-6 at home. They dropped their last home game but that came against Louisiana Tech and prior to that, they won their previous three game at home, two of which came as outright upsets over Charlotte and Marshall. While those were the only two outright wins as an underdogs, Texas-San Antonio hasn't received fewer than 7.5 points all season so the price is right for an outright win once again. Florida International is just one game better than the Roadrunners in the conference and are just 3-6 on the road yet are favored here for no good reason. The Golden Panthers have not been a road favorite since November against Kennesaw St. and I don't think they deserve to be one here. They are just 3-6 ATS on the highway this season including 1-5 ATS in their last six. 10* (532) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners
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02-12-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 | Top | 117-122 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
This is a great spot for the Clippers. After losses against Denver and Miami, they responded with wins over Toronto and Philadelphia and neither of those were close. While they do take a step up in competition here, the goal is to close out the first half with a winning streak and they have had a couple days off to do so. Los Angeles is now 22-4 at home which is the third best home record in the entire league. The Clippers have been outstanding as home favorites, winning 21 of 23 games and they are 15-10 ATSD as a favorite of less than eight points. They will be playing with some added motivation as they lost the first meeting this season in Portland and while it was a while back, they haven
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02-12-14 | Georgia v. Mississippi State +2 | Top | 75-55 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
We won with Mississippi St. in its last game as it was able to cover against Kentucky. The Bulldogs have now dropped five straight games but are a decent 2-2-1 ATS in those contests with both covers coming at home. The two outright home losses came against Florida and Kentucky which came after opening 3-0 at home in the SEC. While Mississippi St. was a big underdog in those last two home games, the fact that is an underdog tonight is a surprise as it is a perfect 5-0 this season as a home underdog, winning the first three instances outright. Georgia has been pretty solid this season, going 6-4 in the SEC and 12-10 overall. The Bulldogs are just 1-5 on the road however with the lone win coming in overtime against Missouri. This is the first time all season it has been tabbed as a road favorite and this is not the situation to do so. Georgia is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and should be shorthanded down low as forward Nemanja Djurisic is doubtful for this game and he is one of three double-digit scorers and the leading scoring big man. Mississippi St. is 4-1-1 ATS following a loss and it is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 home games when the line is +3 to -3. The Bulldogs need to right their ship heading into the homestretch of the season and this is the perfect spot for it happen. 10* (784) Mississippi St. Bulldogs
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02-12-14 | Stanford v. Washington +3 | Top | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Stanford improved to 6-4 in the Pac 12 with an 11-point win on the road over rival California a week ago to make it two straight conference wins as well as six of its last eight following a 0-2 start. This is the third time it has been a road favorite in the Pac 12, the first resulting in a loss at Oregon St. and while the second was a win, it came against lowly USC and took overtime to do so. The Huskies are coming off three straight losses but all of those took place on the road. That has been the story of their conference season as they are 1-6 on the highway but a perfect 4-0 at home and 11-2 on their home floor overall. Washington knows what's at stake. The Huskies are 13-11 overall including 5-6 in the conference and while their NCAA Tournament hopes are not done, they know they need to run the table the rest of the way in the regular season. The good news is that five of their last seven games are at home with the lone road test being at Oregon which has fallen considerably. One of the road conference losses came at Stanford by 12 points so payback is in play tonight as well. We play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a same season loss, off three or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (786) Washington Huskies
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02-12-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Brooklyn Nets -7 | Top | 89-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Charlotte picked up an easy win for us last night as it destroyed Dallas at home. While it was a play on the Bobcats, it was just as much of a play against the Mavericks who were likely caught looking ahead to their game at Indiana tonight to close out the schedule before the All-Star break. As mentioned in yesterday's analysis, Charlotte is playing very well right now as since going through a 1-8 stretch, Charlotte is 8-6 over its last 14 games with four of those losses coming by four points or less or in overtime. With all of this being said, I do not like their chances tonight as the Bobcats hit the road where they have won just 11 times this season and are 7-15 in their 22 games following a victory. Additionally, Charlotte is just 3-11 straight up and 4-9-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back games this season. The Nets are coming off a win over New Orleans in their last game on Sunday making it three wins in their last four games. Going back, Brooklyn is 10-2 straight up and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 home games which includes impressive wins against Golden St., Miami, Dallas and San Antonio although the Spurs were shorthanded. Still, the Nets are getting the job done at home after a slow start and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record. The fact that Brooklyn plays tomorrow is good for us here as it heads to Chicago which is not considered a lookahead game but it places some urgency on the final home game before the break. The Nets lost at Charlotte in the first meeting this season so revenge is on the plate as well. 10* (710) Brooklyn Nets
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02-11-14 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +4.5 | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
As the old adage goes, the third time is a charm. We have played against San Diego St. in each of its last two road games and came up on the short side both times. First, we played against the Aztecs at Utah St. and the Aggies had the cover wrapped up before hitting a last second shot to tie the game to send it into overtime before eventually losing. We then played against the Aztecs at Boise St. and the Broncos were in control for most of the game and then fell apart late and lost on a last second three-pointer. Now we will play against the Aztecs once again in what could be the toughest road environment of them all. San Diego St. has lost only once all season and is riding a 20-game winning streak after defeating Nevada on Saturday and it has yet to lose on the road. This is putting a huge majority of the action on the Aztecs once again. Wyoming is coming off back-to-back road losses but both were close as they lost in overtime at New Mexico and then lost at UNLV by just two points on Saturday. The Cowboys are 5-5 in the MWC but that record could be so much better as they have lost those five games by an average of just 3.6 ppg. They are 11-2 at home, losing to New Mexico and SMU. While the Aztecs are only of the top teams in the country, Wyoming has quietly put together one of the best defensive teams in the country, while on offense, it is ranked 14th in the nation in shooting at 48.8 percent. Here, we play against road teams in the second half of the season that are allowing 40 percent shooting or less going up against teams allowing between 40 and 42.5 percent shooting, after two straight games making 50 percent of their shots or better. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (536) Wyoming Cowboys
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02-11-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Charlotte Bobcats +3.5 | Top | 89-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The Mavericks are the second hottest team in the NBA behind the Rockets as they have won five straight games but I'm not overly impressed. The best win of the bunch was a victory at Memphis as the other four wins came against teams that have won 17, 18, 17 and 19 games and own four of the eight worst record in the league. To its credit, Dallas has won and covered its last four games as a road favorite but this is not a good spot. The Mavericks have played every other day since February 3rd so they have had to travel every day and tomorrow night they are in Indiana so there will be a lookahead there against a Pacers teams that pounded them by 45 combined points in the two meetings a season ago. Charlotte is certainly not a powerful team but it is better than the four teams mentioned above that Dallas has defeated. The Bobcats are coming off a three-point home loss against San Antonio on Saturday which followed a solid 3-1 west coast roadtrip so they have been playing very well. Since going through a 1-8 stretch, Charlotte is 7-6 over its last 13 games with four of those losses coming by four points or less or in overtime. The Bobcats are 18-9-1 ATS following a loss this season including 5-1 ATS in their last six and they fall into a terrific situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a home loss, and now playing their third or less game in 10 days. This situation is 64-29 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (504) Charlotte Bobcats
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02-11-14 | Florida v. Tennessee +2 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a big game for Tennessee and it is also a statement game for several reasons. The Volunteers are currently 48th in the RPI and while they are projected to make it into the NCAA Tournament, another quality win would not hurt matters. And this one would certainly quality as that. Tennessee is 6-4 in the SEC but that includes a 1-3 record in its last four road games and it is 4-0 in its last four at home and the only loss on the season came by a point against Texas A&M which is now considered a bad loss. The Volunteers will also be out for some payback after losing the first meeting in Florida by 26 points just over two weeks ago. The Gators are red hot right now as they have won 15 straight games including posting a perfect 10-0 record in the SEC. Florida has been dominant at home, blowing out pretty much every opponent but it has had its share of troubles on the highway. Both of Florida's losses this season have come on the road against Wisconsin and Connecticut and it is 2-5 (or 2-4-1) in its seven lined games away from home. This is a short number that the Gators are laying but that is telling us something. Tennessee is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games revenging a loss scoring 60 points or less and it is 24-5 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog of six points or less. The Volunteers also fall into a solid situation as we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 67 and 74 ppg going up against teams allowing 63 or fewer ppg, after allowing 65 points or less three straight games. This situation is 82-37 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (522) Tennessee Volunteers
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02-10-14 | Kansas v. Kansas State +4 | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Kansas improved to 9-1 in the Big 12 with an easy home win over West Virginia on Saturday, its second straight win following that lone conference loss which took place at Texas nine days ago. Four of the five Kansas losses have taken place away from home and while it is favored here and considered the better team, the situation is not a good one. The Jayhawks are just 1-3 ATS this season as a short favorite. The Wildcats are 12-1 at home this season with the lone defeat coming in their very first game of the season against Northern Colorado. They have taken care of business on their home floor since then which has been the case for years as Kansas St. has a 117-19 (.860) overall record at home since the 2006-07 season and under head coach Bruce Weber, it is 29-2 at home including 13-1 in Big XII action. Kansas St. won its only game this season as a home underdog as it defeated Oklahoma St. as 5.5-point dogs. As good as the Wildcats have been over the last few years, they have still struggled against their rival losing the last six meetings, both straight up and against the number. Kansas St. has not won in this series since the final meeting of the 2010-11 season when it defeated the Jayhawks here by 16 points in an upset. That certainly adds motivation and it is buoyed by a loss from this season by 26 points in Lawrence. Kansas St. is 12-3 ATS this season against teams with a winning record including an awesome 9-1 ATS record at home. Additionally, the Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams averaging 77 or more ppg while going 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after a win by 10 points or more. 10* (726) Kansas St. Wildcats
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02-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Detroit Pistons +4 | Top | 100-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
We won with Cleveland two games ago on Friday as it was playing its first game after the firing of general manager Chris Grant. When coaches get fired, it can get the attention of the players even more and playing on teams that are playing their first game with a new coach has always been a great angle as these players simply come out with a rejuvenated effort. Detroit first head coach Mo Cheeks on Sunday despite two straight blowout wins as owner Tom Gores made the ultimate decision as he felt a chance was needed. Assistant coach John Loyer will likely replace Cheeks in the interim and you can bet the players will play this one for Cheeks, a coach that was very well respected. Detroit has struggled at home, especially as a home underdog, but the situation is different tonight. The Spurs are 3-1 on their rodeo roadtrip to improve to 19-6 on the road and to no surprise, the public is backing them huge already here as the perceived short price is too much to pass up on. San Antonio is just 14-22 ATS following a win and it continues to be plagued by injuries. The Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while the Pistons are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a win of more than 10 points. Look for that momentum to continue tonight. 10* (706) Detroit Pistons
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02-10-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Indiana Pacers -10.5 | Top | 80-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Indiana is coming off a loss last night at Orlando as an eight-point favorite so it will be ready to bounce back tonight off that embarrassing loss. The Pacers have been a great bounceback team and I expect that to continue on Monday as they are 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the number following a loss this season. Returning home will only bolster things as the Pacers own an NBA best 24-2 record at home and they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a losing road record. When you think of Denver, we typically think of a strong team from the Western Conference but that has not been the case this season as the Nuggets are a game under .500 on the season following a second straight loss on Saturday during this roadtrip at Detroit. The homecourt advantage has not been there like in year's past and the Nuggets have been worse on the road, going 10-14 including a 4-11 record as an underdog. Additionally, the Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the Eastern Conference. Adding to the incentive for Indiana is that it is playing with revenge following a 13-point loss in Denver at the end of last month. That game was the second of back-to-back road games, the first being an overtime win in Sacramento the previous night so a letdown was imminent. 10* (702) Indiana Pacers
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02-09-14 | Philadelphia 76ers +15 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 78-123 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
We won with the Clippers in their last game as they defeated Toronto which snapped a two-game losing streak, the fourth time this season that Los Angeles was able to avoid a three-game losing skid. Now the Clippers come in favored by 10 more points than they were favored by on Friday and it is simply too big of a number. Actually, this is the most they have been favored by this season and it will prove to be too much. The Sixers are obviously having their struggles this season and they are in the midst of a five-game winless streak. Going back, they have won only three times in their last 18 games but two of those wins were on the road and over that stretch, Philadelphia is 4-3 ATS on the road. This is the area where the Sixers have flourished the most, going 13-12 ATS as a road underdog and they are 6-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season. They have seen a number this high only once and that resulted in a cover at Indiana which is a better team than the Clippers so those spread should not even be comparable. While the clippers are 14-4 ATS following a loss, they are just 16-18 ATS following a win. Additionally, Philadelphia has a solid situation on its side as we play on road teams that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 100 points or more three straight games. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (815) Philadelphia 76ers
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02-09-14 | Oregon State v. Arizona -14.5 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
While the number looks big, I think we are getting some value with Arizona on Sunday as my numbers have the Wildcats as a 20-point favorite and the situation for both teams only adds to it. Arizona was dominating to start the season as it was 13-4 ATS through its first 17 lined games but the Wildcats have failed to cover their last five games and the last three have been extremely close games, each being decided by just one possession. However those were against three quality opponents with two of those coming on the road and on Sunday I am expecting the old Arizona to come back and show its face. The Wildcats are 71-11 (.866) overall and 35-7 (.833) in conference games at the McKale Center under head coach Sean Miller and that includes an 18-game home winning streak. Oregon St. meanwhile was on the wrong end of an overtime game on Thursday as it lost at Arizona St. by four points. That dropped the Beavers to 2-6 on the road including 1-4 in the Pac 12 with the lone victory coming at 2-9 Washington St. Granted, the losses have not come by amounts as big as this number but this is obviously the toughest test of the bunch. The Wildcats entered the week ranked seventh nationally in field-goal percentage defense (37.8) and fifth in scoring defense (57.2) and those are big here against the strong perimeter shooting of Oregon St. which is ranked third in the nation in three-point shooting. Arizona is 7-3 ATS this season as a favorite of 15 or more points while going 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games against team with a losing road record. 10* (850) Arizona Wildcats
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02-09-14 | Michigan State v. Wisconsin -2.5 | Top | 58-60 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
We won with Michigan St. in its last game against Penn St. as the Spartans rolled following losses in two of their previous three games and snapped a four-game stretch of playing poor. Things will not be easy to keep the momentum going however and the fact Michigan St. has not lost on the road this season, going a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the number in true road games, is helping keep this number in check and very reasonable to Wisconsin take care of. The Badgers opened the season 16-0, their best start ever, but despite losing five of their last seven games they are still a healthy 12th in the RPI. Most shocking is the fact that Wisconsin has lost three straight games at home, the first time that has even happened in the Bo Ryan era. Still, in 13 seasons under Ryan, the Badgers are 191-21 (.901) at the Kohl Center and only Duke, Kansas, Gonzaga and Memphis have better home records in that span. Wisconsin is enjoying its best offense of the Ryan era, averaging 73.6 ppg (up 8.6 ppg from last season), while ranking 2nd in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency with an average of 1.19 points per possession. They will also be playing for some revenge as Michigan St. has been a thorn in their side by winning the last five meetings including the last two in Madison but those were by a combined five points. The Badgers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while going 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread. 10* (818) Wisconsin Badgers
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02-08-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns -2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
We won with Golden St. on Thursday and similar to playing against Chicago in that game after winning with the Bulls in their previous game, we will go against the Warriors in a comparable situation. Golden St. was coming off an embarrassing loss at home against Charlotte in its previous game to Thursday so we knew the effort was going to be a big one. The Warriors improved to 15-9 at home and while they are a decent 15-11 on the road, seven of those wins have come against the Eastern Conference while five others have come against Utah, New Orleans and Sacramento all of which are in last place in their respective divisions. Overall, Golden St. is just 7-11 against teams ranked in the NBA power rankings and Phoenix is part of that group. At 29-20, the Suns are the surprise story of the league as many had them tabbed for near the bottom of the Western Conference. They won seven of eight games starting in mid-January before losing their last two on Tuesday and Wednesday. Phoenix has won 10 of its last 14 games coming off a loss and has lost more than two games only once since late November and the other time was when all three games were on the road. Speaking of on the road, the Suns lost by 29 points on the road at Golden St. in the last meeting so it is payback time tonight. Golden St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win while Phoenix is 6-0 ATS in its last 12 games following a double-digit loss. 10* (512) Phoenix Suns
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02-08-14 | Indiana v. Minnesota -4 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
There are six teams in the Big Ten with losing records and Minnesota is hands down the best of the bunch. Sans from a 21-point loss at Iowa, the Gophers have had a chance to win each of their other five games that they ended up losing. Losses at Michigan St. and Purdue were in overtime while losses to Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan came by a combined eight points. Had all of the luck been with Minnesota, which isn't typical obviously, it could feasibly by 9-1 in the Big Ten but more realistic, it could be sitting no worse than in third place right now. Indiana has been up and down this season but that was expected with all of the players that it lost from last season. The Hoosiers are 5-5 in the conference and while they have also encountered some close losses, they have benefited from some close wins as well. Indiana is just 1-4 in true road games this season with that win coming at Penn St. by only three points. The Hoosiers have lost all four games when listed as the underdog and catching a Minnesota team in the midst of a three-game slide is not the way to break out of that. The Hoosiers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. This game being at night can only help as Minnesota is 0-7 ATS during the day but 7-3-1 ATS at night. 10* (634) Minnesota Golden Gophers
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02-08-14 | William & Mary v. Northeastern -2 | Top | 82-70 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
William & Mary came through with another road win on Wednesday as it defeated UNC-Wilmington by four points which made it three straight wins away from home. Overall, the Tribe are 7-5 on the road which is already two more road wins than they had all of last season. They are now playing their third straight road since Sunday and the travel has not been great as they have had to go from Virginia to North Carolina and now to Boston and I think it finally catches up to them here. William & Mary is 7-2-1 ATS on the road and that is helping keep this number at a good place to back the home team. Northeastern is eight games under .500 on the season but all of that futility came in nonconference action where it went just 3-11. The schedule had a lot to do with that as the Huskies nonconference slate was ranked 34th in the nation. They have since turned things around by going 5-5 in the CAA and even though they are just 2-3 at home, all three of those losses were within reach late in the game. With Towson and Drexel being the final two home games of the season, this is a game the Huskies need to have. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (612) Northeastern Huskies
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02-08-14 | Auburn v. LSU -9.5 | Top | 80-87 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
LSU has to be one of the best inconsistent teams in the country but this oxymoron will only help us here. The Tigers are coming off a loss at Georgia where they were favored and that halted a two-game winning streak and put them at 5-4 in the SEC. They are still very much in the thick of the NCAA Tournament but they cannot afford more quality losses and that is what would be the case here. LSU is 5-1 following its previous six losses this season and it has won all four conference home games since losing its SEC home opener to Tennessee by 18 points. Don't look now, but the Auburn Tigers are making a run. Don't expect it to last however. We played against them on Wednesday at South Carolina as I expected a huge letdown following two straight SEC wins after suffering through 16 straight conference losses. Instead, the Tigers were able to make it three straight victories but I certainly gave the Gamecocks too much credit there as their 1-8 SEC record is all of a sudden legit. Now Auburn faces a real team and it has been blasted on the road against teams that are possessing a pulse. The winning streak is a nice turnaround but it comes crashing down here. Going back, the Tigers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (566) LSU Tigers
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02-08-14 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State +13 | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Mississippi St. has dropped four straight games to fall to 3-6 in the conference but this is a good spot to at least keep it close and sneak up on Kentucky. Three of the four losses during this stretch have been on the road with the lone home loss coming against Florida. The Bulldogs covered that game and the home and road splits have played a big role in their betting success as they are 0-6 straight up and 0-5-1 ATS as a road underdog but 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS as a home underdog. Overall, they are 11-2 at home and have covered five of six home games against teams with a winning record. This has always been a tough environment and last year's 7-7 record was a total aberration. We played against Kentucky three games back and that resulted in an outright loss at LSU. The Wildcats have since won and covered their last two games against Missouri and Mississippi but this is a team that cannot be trusted for too much consistency. They are just 2-4-3 ATS away from home including 1-4 ATS in true road games and going back, the Wildcats are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a winning home record and a lot of that has to do with the overinflated lines because of the public betting affection. 10* (530) Mississippi St. Bulldogs
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02-07-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Los Angeles Clippers -5.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
The Clippers did their best to try and come back from a 19-point deficit against Miami but fell short and suffered their second straight loss and just their fourth at home this season. Typically, Los Angeles has been a solid team coming off a loss this season and this is just their fourth two-game losing streak of the season and it has been able to keep the losses in check as they have followed up the previous three back-to-back losses with wins next time out, taking those games by 13, 20 and 8 points. Overall, the Clippers are 13-4 both straight up and against the number following a loss. Toronto is also coming off a loss as it fell to Sacramento on Wednesday in a game it never led and was not as close as the final score indicated. The Raptors have also been a solid team coming off a loss this season but the situations have been a lot more in their favor than it is here. Some of the follow up victories have come against Utah (twice), the Lakers, Milwaukee, Philadelphia (twice), New York, Detroit and Brooklyn. Of its 26 wins, only nine have come against the Western Conference and only one of those have been against a team that is higher than eighth place and while it was at Oklahoma City, it came right after the Thunder were coming off a win at San Antonio. Overall, the Raptors are just 3-13 against teams ranked within the top ten of the NBA power rankings. We also have a great situation on our side as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season that are outscoring opponents between 3 and 7 ppg going up against teams with a scoring differential between +3 and -3, after scoring 110 points or more two straight games. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (820) Los Angeles Clippers
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02-07-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers +9 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Sometimes shakeups are good and in the case of Cleveland, this could be a beneficial turn. The Cavaliers fired general manager Chris Grant on Thursday as the season has been one of the most disappointing ones in the entire league. Cleveland is coming off a loss to the Lakers, who finished the game with four eligible players, to make it six straight losses as well as six straight non-covers. The firing sends a message and players tend to respond in these situations and that is what we are expecting from the Cavaliers tonight. We played on Washington on Wednesday against San Antonio and it had the game in control early, leading by as many as 17 points but it was outscored 14 points in the second half and eventually lost in double overtime. It was the Wizards first game being over .500 in more than four years and they could not respond and while a bounceback will be the goal, I can't see a huge effort here. This is rare territory for Washington as it is not typically favored by this many points and when it has been this season, it has not gone well as the Wizards are 0-5 ATS when favored by seven or more points. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record and they fall into a negative situation where we play against home teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing 102 or more ppg, after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (805) Cleveland Cavaliers
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02-06-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Golden State Warriors -8 | Top | 87-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
We won with Chicago on Tuesday as the Bulls never trailed and defeated the Suns in a wire-to-wire victory which came after one of their worst games of the season, a 29-point thrashing at Sacramento. So which Bulls team shows up tonight? A lot of that will be dictated by the opposition but this is the Bulls fifth game of this roadtrip and there has been very little rest in-between games with this being the third game in four nights and the fourth game in six nights. The Bulls are six games over .500 against the Eastern Conference but six games below .500 against the Western Conference. Golden St. meanwhile is coming off one of second worst games of the season offensively and its worst showing on offense at home. The Warriors lost by 16 points which was their worst loss of the season and their 75 points scored were the fewest of any home game this season. I expect a big bounce back game even though they are facing one of the best defenses in the NBA. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win while going 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games coming off an outright win as an underdog. Golden St. is 8-1-2 in its last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points while going 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (504) Golden St. Warriors
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02-06-14 | Temple +13 v. SMU | Top | 52-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
We won with SMU on Saturday as it easily covered the short price against Memphis and was able to bounce back from an upset loss at South Florida a few days prior. The Mustangs remain undefeated at home at 9-0 and are looking at their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1993. They have been very good to their backers as they have gone 8-1 ATS over their last nine games and have covered every lined game on their home floor, going a perfect 7-0 ATS. That is aiding in getting us a good deal of value and SMU could not be in a worse spot, coming off that Memphis win and then hosting Cincinnati on Saturday. It was been a long season for Temple. The Owls are 6-14 overall including 1-7 in the AAC as they are coming off a home blowout loss against Villanova and could not carry over the momentum from the win against Rutgers in their previous game. While they have failed to win on the road in the conference, they are 2-2-1 ATS and they have been a great bounceback team, going 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. This has a lot to do with coaching and Fran Dunphy is one of the best and since he has been here, Temple is 10-2 ATS in 12 games following a loss by 15 or more points. Additionally, we play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points that are coming off a home win scoring 85 or more points, in February games. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (527) Temple Owls
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