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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-19-22 | Yankees +171 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Yankees were bailed out by the rain on Monday as it gave them an extra day of rest to be able to put Nestor Cortes on the hill for Game Five and it paid off as New York won 5-1 as he put together five strong innings and turned it over to their strong bullpen. One big thing that many will shy away from New York is the travel aspect but that is not a concern even though how quick it is as these players have done this numerous times throughout the season so it is nothing different. New York is 43-40 on the road which certainly is not great and that does include three losses here back in July but they were by a combined four runs. Jameson Taillon gets the ball with an extra day of rest after being the original starter in Game Five and he was not good in relief in Game Two against the Indians. He allowed three hits and two runs without retiring a batter but it was his first ever relief appearance and his first ever postseason experience and that pressure is gone. Houston has had some added rest following a three-game sweep of the Mariners in the ALDS which could go either way but this late in the season, they will be ready. Still, the price is too high and even though the Houston ace is on the hill, a game of this magnitude at this stage with the two best teams in the league should be priced closer. Justin Verlander takes the hill for the Astros and he is a pitcher tough to go against but he could be in a vulnerable place right now. Since a brief stint on the injured list in late August/early September with a calf injury, he has struggled with his mechanics and that was no more apparent than in his last start as in the ALDS against the Mariners, he allowed six runs on 10 hits in just four innings in Game One that did result in a win but a fluky one. He is 0-3 with a 5.97 ERA in his last five postseason starts with his last playoff win coming in Game One of the 2019 ALDS. 10* (955) New York Yankees |
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10-19-22 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State -10 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 50 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the APPALACHIAN ST. MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Wednesday Game of the Month. Appalachian St. is coming off a bad loss as it fell at Texas St. 36-24 as a 19-point favorite as it could not overcome mistakes and could not recover from a 30-3 deficit. The Mountaineers had two turnovers, one of which was an interception returned 94-yards for a touchdown that ended up being a 14-point swing that ultimately put the game away. They outgained the Bobcats by 102 total yards and they have been outgained only once this season which was against 5-1 James Madison by just 78 yards in a four-point loss. Appalachian St. fell to 1-2 in the Sun Belt Conference so it has some work to do sitting a game and a half behind the leaders in the East Division. The offense has huge advantages here as the Mountaineers are ranked No. 34 in both total offense and scoring offense and while not off the chart rankings, they are definitely good enough against the defense they will be facing on Wednesday. Appalachian St. is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. Georgia St. opened the season 0-4 but has bounced back nicely with a pair of wins, one against rival Georgia Southern by eight points and an upset at Army by 17 points so they have been quality victories. There was not a real domination with the numbers though as the Panthers won the yardage battle in those two games by just a combined 161 ypg and hit the road for just the third time with the other game coming at South Carolina that resulted in a 35-14 loss. Their offense is decent, ranked No. 44 in the country but the scoring offense is just No. 65 and they face a very formidable defense which has had its numbers skewed because of that North Carolina game where they allowed 567 yards and 63 points opening weekend. The story here though is the defense that has not been able to stop many teams as the Panthers are ranked No. 113 overall and No. 115 in scoring and those are not skewed. They have allowed 33 or more points in five of six games. 10* (302) Appalachian St. Mountaineers |
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10-19-22 | Magic v. Pistons -3.5 | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT PISTONS for our NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. Two likely non-playoff teams square off Wednesday with Detroit hosting its season opener before an already brutal schedule coming up. This is an important game for the Pistons as far as scheduling goes as they have three road games on deck followed by games against Atlanta (twice), Golden St. and Milwaukee (twice) so this is going to be the only game they will be favored in until maybe November 4 at home against Cleveland. Detroit is going trough a rebuild with a slew of young talent with Cade Cunningham, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and rookies Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren expecting to be big contributors. Getting Bojan Bogdanovic right before training camp was a solid acquisition of a veteran that can contribute and help develop the young roster. Detroit won three of the four meetings last season all of which would have covered this number. Orlando is in the same boat as it is rebuilding with a young core but are still a step behind and hitting the road six times in its first eight games is not ideal for a team that was 10-31 on the highway last season. There is no veteran leadership on this team and it would not be surprising to see the Magic tank again, which will not be hard, to be able to acquire the No. 1 draft pick for a second straight season. The Magic do have some key players out on Wednesday with Moritz Wagner, Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris unavailable along with Jonathan Isaac who is still out after missing all of last season. No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero could be the real deal as he dominated the Summer League albeit just two games. top to bottom ,this is a bad roster and has a bad setup in the opener even though it is against another bad team, the logistics will play a big part. 10* (508) Detroit Pistons |
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10-18-22 | Lakers +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. This line has remained relatively steady between 6 and 6.5 with a slight majority of the action on the Lakers. Golden St. is starting the defense of its NBA Title so Tuesday the Warriors will be dropping their championship banner and receiving their championship rings and this has been a lucrative situation over the years. Milwaukee won in this spot last season on banner night but the Bucks were getting points at home against the Nets yet historically, going against the reigning champions for the first couple weeks of the season has been the way to go as the numbers are overpriced early on. It was a quiet offseason for the Warriors up until the Draymond Green/Jordan Poole fiasco and while that has been washed away for the part, it is time to focus on basketball and Golden St. is tied with the Clippers and Celtics at +600 to win the NBA Championship. It is just the first game of the season but this is a statement game for the Lakers that were the biggest disappointment in the NBA last season and they heard about it all summer. It did not help matters that they went 1-5 during the preseason and that has been a big headline but it means little as head coach Darvin Ham used several lineups to try and figure out the regular season planned and he stated the Lakers will be better equipped to win games after all their players return from the injuries that came about during the preseason. This team is not getting younger so the time to jump on is early when they are actually healthy and one positive that came from the preseason was an improved defense thanks to the additions of Patrick Beverley and Dennis Schroder. The Lakers will be a play against for many based on the struggles last season but this is the best time to buy. 10* (503) Los Angeles Lakers |
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10-18-22 | Golden Knights v. Flames -150 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALGARY FLAMES for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. A pair of undefeated teams take the ice on Tuesday as Vegas goes to Calgary where it concludes a short two-game roadtrip. Vegas has been stuck in the Pacific Northwest for five days so while there is no travel disadvantage, being in the same place away from home for a lengthy amount of time is trying. The Golden Knights are 3-0 but the last two games came against teams that are unlikely to sniff the postseason and this is by far the biggest test of the young season. They were decent on the road last season with a 21-16-2-2 record but will playing in one of the tougher environments in the NHL. The Golden Knights are 5-11 in their last 16 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. We won with Calgary on Saturday in the Battle of Alberta against Edmonton on the road which was an early season statement and one that will stick for a short period of time as Edmonton comes to town later this this month which is part of an eight-game homestand for the Flames. They already have one impressive home victory as they defeated reigning Stanley Cup Champion Colorado 5-3 although it was not an upset as Calgary closed at -140 and while this line is and should be higher than that, it is not much of a difference which indicates some value on the home side. The Flames were 25-9-6-1 at home last season, one of only three Western Conference teams to possess single-digit regulation losses at home. The Flames are 21-8 in their last 29 games playing on two days of rest. 10* (12) Calgary Flames |
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10-18-22 | Phillies +120 v. Padres | Top | 2-0 | Win | 120 | 32 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our N.L. Game of the Week. This is not the matchup many were expecting in the NLCS as both Philadelphia and San Diego and coming off underdog series wins over the Braves and Dodgers respectively. The one thing that stands out is that not many people are going to see the end of this one which is unfortunate with the first pitch going at 8:00 ET. No one really should be surprised to see the Phillies here as they have been one of the best teams in baseball over the last few months after firing manager Joe Girardi as Philadelphia went on to post a .704 winning percentage in June and .600 or better in July and August. They are 43-42 on the road which is nothing special but have been much better over that second half and the bats dominated the series against the Braves as they scored 24 runs in four games and that was getting shutout in one of those. Zack Wheeler was responsible for that loss but not because he pitched bad as he allowed only four hits and three runs over six innings and he has now gone five straight starts of allowing three runs or less and has a 1.32 ERA in those games covering 27.1 innings. The Padres won a thrilling series against Los Angeles as they won the final three games after dropping the opener which includes a comeback in Game Four after trailing 3-0 going into the bottom of the seventh inning. They do have momentum and the advantage of not having to travel but both are insignificant as travel has been the norm all season for all teams. Yu Darvish has been very good as well as he has allowed three runs or less in 10 straight starts but has not been as dominant as he has given up three runs exact in half of those starts. Here, we play against home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 after allowing three runs or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring eight runs or more in two straight games. this situation is 31-14 (68.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (951) Philadelphia Phillies |
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10-17-22 | Broncos +5 v. Chargers | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. This is a great value play on Denver based on not only the line but that everyone is still sour on the Broncos which has moved the line. Denver is coming off a pair of losses including a 12-9 overtime loss against Indianapolis last Thursday to drop them to 2-3 but despite the bad press, they have been better than that record shows. They are outgaining opponents by 54.6 ypg and the big issue has been offensive scoring as they are dead last in the NFL with 15.0 ppg but this will come around because turnovers have been the difference. This is a good spot to get the running game going with no Joey Bosa and a rushing defense that is ranked No. 23 which will take pressure off Russell Wilson and the ineffective red zone offense. The Broncos defense has kept them above water as Denver is No. 3 overall, in passing defense and scoring defense which can limit the Chargers offense. Los Angeles is coming off a pair of road wins and while that can bring in some positive momentum, those wins were both very unimpressive against Houston and Cleveland as they won the yardage battle by a combined 95 yards. The offense was hoping to have Keenan Allen back but that is very unlikely and they will be facing a blitz heavy defense which has been an issue for Justin Herbert who is 27-45 for 350 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions when facing a blitz. Being back home is always nice but this is not a great home field edge and the Chargers are at the disadvantage of facing a Denver team playing on a long layoff with line value. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in two out of their last three games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (275) Denver Broncos |
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10-17-22 | Penguins v. Canadiens +210 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 210 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the MONTREAL CANADIENS for our NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Week. We often talk about overreaction in football based on early results and recent history and it also goes into other sports. Montreal opened the season with a big underdog win against Toronto and the market adjusted in the next game but it was the start of two straight losses by a combined 6-1 and now the market has shifted back. The Canadiens are back home and despite going 11-26-3-1 at home last season, there is value to be had here against a team in a letdown spot even though it is early. The power play has gone 0-10 through the first three games which not helped an offense that is bottom of the barrel in shooting with only 24.7 spg on goal but could have a favorable matchup here. The Penguins have started 2-0 with a pair of 6-2 blowout victories, the first a rather unimpressive one against Arizona but the second was against Tampa Bay on Saturday which is the letdown aspect. They have dominated all around except for special team and this being the first road game, that could be a problem. Getting the opportunities at home to take advantage of is important and Pittsburgh has been vulnerable in that early on as three of its four goals allowed has come by way of the power play. Here, we play on home teams against the money line after scoring one goal or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring five goals or more in two straight games. This situation is 31-12 (72.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (60) Montreal Canadiens |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 49 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFC East Game of the Year. Many declared Dallas for dead after a season opening loss against Tampa Bay where Dak Prescott went down but the Cowboys have circled the wagons and have won four straight games behind backup Cooper Rush. He has done very well in carrying the team but his numbers are fairly average and as he has not tossed an interception, he has only four touchdowns with a passer rating of sub-90. Overall, the offense is ranked No. 27 while their scoring average is No. 25 so they have relied on a strong defense to keep opponents in check but this is not a good matchup to keep rolling. In the first five games, Dallas has faced teams with offensive lines ranked No. 15 or worse over the last four games and the game against Tampa Bay was the only one a top ten ranked unit. Now the Cowboys will square off against the top ranked offensive line in the league on the road in primetime, not the ideal situation. The Eagles were the big sleeper team coming into the season and so far they have not disappointed as they are the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL and they have been dominant. They are outgaining opponents by 125.4 ypg which trails only Buffalo overall and they are doing it in both phases as their +55 rushing ypg is No. 2 and their +70.4 passing ypg is No. 3 and a lot of this is attributed to the aforementioned top rated offensive line. Philadelphia is No. 5 in rushing offense and that is the weakness of the Dallas defense which is only No. 18 in rushing defense. Jalen Hurts is a legitimate MVP candidate and while it is early, he has become a big threat and has the parts around him to make this run keep going. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (274) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals -2 v. Seahawks | Top | 9-19 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Arizona is off to a 2-3 start to the season following a brutal loss against Philadelphia last week as it missed a late field goal that would have sent the game into overtime. It has been an uncanny start as the road team is 5-0 in Cardinals games and they fell to 0-3 at home, where they have not won since October 24, 2021, a span of eight straight games going down in defeat. Being favored on the road should not scare anyone in this spot and while some may question why they are favored at all, they have played better than their record shows and should not be scrutinized. After getting blasted by Kansas City in the season opener, Arizona has outgained it last four opponents and by an average of 59.8 ypg so it is safe to say they are playing good despite splitting out those games and the Cardinals take a big step down in class this week and need this before facing the Saints at home this upcoming Thursday. Seattle is also 2-3 following a loss at New Orleans last week and its 2-3 record is much different than that of the Cardinals. The Seahawks were fortunate to beat Denver and narrowly defeated Detroit in a shootout and they have won the yardage battle only twice by a total of 69 yards while getting outgained by a combined 379 yards so when they have been good, they have been average and when they have been bad, they have been horrible. We are eventually going to see what we expected heading into the season and that is a long road down the stretch and while the offense has been really good under Geno Smith, the defense is horrendous as they are dead last in total defense and second to last in scoring defense. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. this situation is 24-2 ATS (92.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (269) Arizona Cardinals |
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10-16-22 | Patriots v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 38-15 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Cleveland lost a tough one last week against the Chargers by two points as it opened the game by going ahead 14-0 but was outscored 27-7 before the Browns were able to retake the lead in the third quarter but were shutout in the final quarter. A missed 54-yaard field goal in the final seconds pushed them to 2-3 and it was the first game they were outgained this season but it was still by only 22 yards. Overall, Cleveland is +42.6 ypg which is the sixth best differential in the league and it is one of only three teams in the top 12 that possess a losing record. Additionally, the Browns are +54.2 ypg in rushing differential which is third best in the league, trailing only the 49ers and Eagles. Jacoby Brissett has been solid so far as he is managing games well and while he did not play in this meeting last season, this is a big revenge game for the Browns which lost 45-7 in New England last November. New England is coming off a 29-0 shutout of Detroit against a good Lions offense but they were still down running back D'Andre Swift who is a big part of that offense. Quarterback Bailey Zappe won his first career start but he did not have great numbers with the exception of a high completion rate and there is a chance that Mac Jones returns but there really is not much of a difference between the two besides game experience. The Patriots have won the yardage battle in three of five games but just once in three road games with the exception being against Pittsburgh which is not saying much. The one positive is that they have increased their rushing output every game but a lot of that is due to running it a ton as they have averaged 4.6 which is good but nothing spectacular. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (258) Cleveland Browns |
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10-15-22 | Flames +118 v. Oilers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 118 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALGARY FLAMES for our NHL Pacific Game of the Month. We typically do not factor in road revenge with NHL home ice being as strong of an edge as it is but we will put it in play here as a partial angle. Calgary had home ice against Edmonton in the second round of the playoffs last year and after winning Game One 9-6, things were looking good but the Oilers won the next four games including the series clinching win in Calgary in overtime. The Flames got the season off to a good start with a win at Colorado to spoil the season home debut for the reigning Stanley Cup Champions and that does not signify a letdown with this heated Battle of Alberta rivalry matchup. Jacob Markstrom is expected to start between the pipes and has his own personal revenge as the Oilers lit him up in that series as he finished allowing over five gpg and a poor .850 save percentage. Calgary will be up for the test. Edmonton is also coming off a season opening win as it defeated Vancouver 5-3 after falling behind 3-0 early in the second period which obviously showed the firepower of this team. The Oilers were 28-12-0-1 during the regular season a year ago at home which were the third most home wins in the Western Conference but Calgary countered that with a 25-12-3-1 record on the road and those 25 wins were tied for the most in the entire league so there is no issue with the Flames winning here. Edmonton was outshot 36-25 but stopped seven of eight power play opportunities as goalie Jack Campbell settled down after the poor start. Now, it is a different story for him as he makes his debut in the Alberta rivalry after spending the last two-plus seasons with the Maple Leafs. 10* (53) Calgary Flames |
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10-15-22 | Astros v. Mariners -103 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Seattle got back into the postseason for the first time in 21 years and after playing its first four games on the road, the Mariners are back home for their first postseason game here since October 18, 2001. Winning this series already down 2-0 will be a longshot but stealing one game at home is more than doable after a pair of agonizing losses to open the series in Houston so the Mariners will be playing for their postseason lives in the best-of-five series. They hand the ball to rookie George Kirby who had a great season with a 3.39 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 25 starts with Seattle going 16-9 in those games. His first postseason start comes a week after he made his postseason debut in the series-clinching victory at Toronto and picked up the save. His home numbers are nearly identical and he has been limited down the stretch with just 13.1 innings over the last three weeks so he will be fresh and the postseason experience, albeit limited, will take the pressure off here. Houston is Houston so we know what to expect and while the Astros were great on the road, this is certainly not an easy spot and they will definitely be hearing it from the sold out crowd and even more so in the playoffs. Lance McCullers will be making only his ninth start this season since getting back in the rotation in August and he has been really good but most of the success has been at home where he has a 1.50 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in five starts. In three road starts however, he has a 3.57 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Here, we play against road teams with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last five games, in October games. this situation is 34-10 (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (908) Seattle Mariners |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU -3.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -120 | 44 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Oklahoma St. came into the season as one of the top favorites to win the Big 12 Conference and it remains there, tied with TCU at +300, right behind Texas which is +270. They are 5-0 but have not played like an undefeated team as they have been outgained in three of their four games against FBS opponents including last week against Texas Tech where they won by 10 points despite getting outgained by 93 total yards. That games makes this trip even more difficult for the defense as the unit was on the field for 104 plays and could get gassed here going against the best team in the country on offense as far as yards per play. Oklahoma St. is ranked No. 34 in offensive EPA (Expected Points Added) and No. 82 in defensive EPA and of the remaining 15 undefeated teams, they are the lowest ranked team in EPA Margin at No. 53 (10 of those undefeated teams are ranked No. 13 or higher in ERA Margin). TCU has been arguably the most impressive team in the Big 12 through the first half although some will argue Texas which is fair, but the Horned Frogs are ranked in the top five in the country in both scoring offense and scoring defense. As for the aforementioned yards per play offense rankings, TCU averages 8.08 yppl which is just ahead of Alabama and Ohio St. and its schedule is ranked No. 67 compared to No. 30 and No. 38 for the other two which is not a huge drop lower. The Oklahoma blowout win has lost some of its shine after the Sooners got waxed by Texas but it was impressive nonetheless as was the win at Kansas last week despite getting outgained. This is just the third home game for the Horned Frogs and revenge is in play after their 63-17 loss to the Cowboys last season. 10* (186) TCU Horned Frogs |
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10-15-22 | Kent State +8.5 v. Toledo | Top | 31-52 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the KENT ST. GOLDEN FLASHES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Toledo is off to a 4-2 start including a 2-0 start in the MAC with a pair of wins and covers the last two weeks laying close to the same number as it is this week but the level of competition goes up here. The Rockets numbers have been skewed but are balanced out as they rolled up the stats in their first two wins against Long Island and Massachusetts, two blowouts against cupcakes, but were rolled by Ohio St. to even those numbers out. The real disparity was last week against Northern Illinois as they won by 20 points but were outgained by 75 yards as they benefitted from a +4 turnover margin so it was a misleading final and the big margin of victory is going right into this line. Kent St. has seen and opposite start as it 2-4 but three of those losses were on the road at Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia and the other defeat was also on the road last week at Miami Ohio by three points as the Golden Flashes fell behind 17-0 and could not recover. We played them against Ohio two weeks ago and despite outgaining the Bobcats by 286 total yards, the result was a touchdown win in overtime and those are the types of games that do not tell the story as everything going forward is based on scoring differential with rarely any boxscore info taken into consideration. Getting over a touchdown is big here and the fact that close to 70 percent of the public is on the Rockets is a reflection of the fact the home team in 6-0 in Kent St. home games and that is what we are bucking. Here, we play on road teams averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play going up against a team allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (117) Kent St. Golden Flashes |
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10-15-22 | Ohio v. Western Michigan +1.5 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Western Michigan is 2-4 following a bad loss at home against Western Michigan last week which also dropped it to 1-1 in the MAC. The Broncos have been a huge disappointment but it was sort of expected as from last season, only 11 starters came back to go along with a No. 124 returning production ranking so an early struggle could have been anticipated which came to fruition. The numbers have not been nearly as bad as the opponent on defense and overall, the Broncos have advantages in the three main categories of yards per play, yards per game and scoring average so the defense will be fine. The offense has been inconsistent but have the best opportunity to get it going this week as it has all season and we should see just that with a good edge of playing its third straight home game while Ohio has traveled between home/away and away/away games every week through six contests. This is the first of four straight winnable games. The Bobcats defense is horrible and are now a road favorite. Ohio took out Florida Atlantic in the season opener as it barely held off a late charge from the Owls and that defensive effort was a sign of things to come. The Bobcats then had a pair of tough road games at Penn St. and Iowa St. and the defense was lit up for 572 yards and 463 yards respectively which was going to be a given but last week was a total debacle as they hosted Fordham and gave up 52 points and 640 yards of offense. It got worse at Kent St. as they allowed 736 total yards and were extremely luck to cover and all said and done, Ohio has the worst ranked defense in the country and its scoring defense is ranked No. 127. The Bobcats had a better effort last week that was Akron and now face an offense ready to break out and there is no reason to think otherwise. 10* (190) Western Michigan Broncos |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State +16.5 v. Texas | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 46 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our Big 12 Game of the Year. This is the perfect situation for Iowa St., at least as far as a cover goes because overreaction happens every week and we are seeing that here based on recent results on both sides. Iowa St. opened the season 3-0 but has lost three straight games, all by one possession including the last two by four points combined as the offense shut down in those last two with 20 points scored combined. The defense remains a strength however as the Cyclones have allowed 14 points or less in five of their six games and now are getting more points than they have allowed in those games and on average for the season where they have given up only 13.7 ppg. The total defense is ranked No. 11 in the country, allowing 277.5 ypg and while facing a solid offense, it is one that it can slow down. This has been a great spot with Iowa St. going 6-0 ATS in its last six games as underdogs of three or more points coming off a loss while head coach Matt Campbell is 10-0 ATS his last 10 conference games against winning teams when getting double digits. While the last three losses for the Cyclones is part of the overreaction, the Texas 49-0 win against Oklahoma is an even bigger overreaction. It was a solid win over a very good Sooners team but a very overrated Sooners team that has been exposed the last three weeks on defense. The line opened high and has been bet up even higher which is giving us great value on the other side. Overall, Texas is ranked No. 37 in total offense and No. 34 in total defense which are very good rankings but nothing over the top that helps explain such a big line over a quality team. Coming off a blowout over their biggest rival can create a letdown but in addition, Texas has a revenge game on deck against Oklahoma St. while Iowa St. has a bye which solidifies taking the big underdog. 10* (187) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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10-15-22 | Penn State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Michigan is off to a 6-0 start but has played a soft slate for the most part as the best opponent has been Maryland which resulted in a seven-point win at home and it did not come close to covering. The Wolverines opened with three nonconference games against Colorado St., Hawaii and Connecticut, three teams ranked No. 136, No. 166 and No. 150 respectively in the latest power rankings and the three conference games have been far from daunting with the highest ranked opponent being Iowa at No. 33. To put it in perspective, the Wolverines have played a schedule ranked No. 111 which is second lowest in strength of all teams that are No. 45 or better in the country. Yes, Michigan has the talent to make another conference run but not being tested, no chance to back them against a quality opponent laying this number. One big gripe about head coach James Franklin is the fact he has stunk in this role of an underdog against teams highly ranked teams as he has lost eight in a row on the road against top ten teams but the price is a big deal with five of those defeats coming by five points or less so we are not dealing with a history of blowouts. The Nittany Lions offense has been solid as they are ranked No. 38 overall and No. 37 in scoring and a solid rushing game has buoyed this as they are averaging 192.6 ypg on the ground which is No. 33 in the nation. The Michigan defense has been one of the best but against no one. This is a good scheduling spot for Penn St. as while it will be a full house at the Big House, a noon game is different than a home game at night where the energy is completely different. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points allowing 100 or less rushing ypg, after allowing 1.5 or less rushing ypc last game. this situation is 60-25 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (127) Penn St. Nittany Lions |
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10-14-22 | Rangers v. Jets -114 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the WINNIPEG JETS for our NHL Friday Breakaway. The Rangers did not waste a lot of time on Thursday as they scored just over four minutes into the game and eventually built a 3-0 lead right before the first period horn and never looked back. New York backed up its solid home opening win over Tampa Bay and remains on the road for its first back-to-back of the season. Reigning Vezina Trophy winning goalie Igor Shesterkin made 26 saves against the Lightning and 33 saves against Minnesota after getting that 3-0 lead but the good news is he will not be in goal tonight so Friday will mark Jaroslav Halak's Rangers debut, his seventh team, after coming over from Vancouver where he had his worst save percentage in 11 seasons. The Jets take the ice for the first time with a team that is relatively the same from last season with the biggest change being on the bench as Rick Bowness takes over as the new head coach. He did not do a whole lot to the roster but in the offseason, his goal was to recharge a franchise that has been stuck in neutral and looks to be doing it the old school way as the roster is pretty solid despite the finish last season. The Jets were 39-32-7-4 as they stumbled on the road but were solid at home with a 23-15-2-1 record at home. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers make up the Jets new top line, one that could easily generate 100 goals or more while defensively, Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo will start on the blue line as the two top stoppers. Winnipeg went 4-1-0-1 in the preseason and while it does not tell us a whole lot, the aggressiveness was there as it scored four or more goals in the four wins including five goals three times. 10* (26) Winnipeg Jets |
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10-14-22 | Navy +13 v. SMU | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. After a 0-2 start with bad losses against Delaware and Memphis, Navy has responded with wins in two of its last three games, both being impressive conference victories over East Carolina and Tulsa with the lone defeat being a three-point loss at Air Force. This is the time to jump on the Midshipmen as they are playing their style again and the markets have not caught up despite this being one of just two games on Friday. Navy rushed for 455 yards in its last game against Tulsa and while it was only one game, it is in a great spot here against a defense that has allowed an average of 195 rushing ypg in the four games against FBS opponents. Overall, Navy is No. 12 in rushing offense, averaging 231.8 ypg and being able to shorten the game with the running attack is important being a double-digit underdog. SMU has lost three straight games following a 2-0 start including a 22-point loss at UCF which was a horrible spot coming off two postponements which messed with travel and practice issues leading up to the game last Wednesday. The Mustangs do have extra time in this spot which is significant when prepping for the Navy offense but an extra two days is nothing compared to a bye week prior to the matchup. SMU does have a potent offense led by a passing game that is ranked No. 4 in the country with 355 ypg but it does come down to the rushing game and the point at the line of scrimmage as the Mustangs have been outgained on the ground in all four FBS matchups. Turnovers are an issue as well as the Mustangs are -6 in turnover margin over the last four games. Here, we play against teams averaging 6.2 or more yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl, after allowing 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. this situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (113) Navy Midshipmen |
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10-14-22 | Guardians +140 v. Yankees | Top | 4-2 | Win | 140 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our MLB Divisional Series Game of the Year. Cleveland dropped the series opener 4-1 despite outhitting the Yankees 6-5 but if there is any good news, the bullpen went only three innings which is big after needing nine innings from the relivers on Saturday to take out Tampa Bay in 15 innings. Adding the day on Wednesday and the bullpen is rested and ready if needed but that should not be the case here with their ace back on the hill. The Guardians are 46-36 on the road which has equated to +16.4 units of profit and they have been great against left-handed starters by going 30-17 for +16.8 units of profit while hitting a solid .255. Shane Bieber tossed a gem against the Rays as he went 7.2 innings, allowing only one run on three hits while striking out eight and walking one. He has allowed two runs or less in 12 of his last 14 starts and he has slightly positive reverse road/home splits. The Yankees bats remain quiet as over the last 12 games, they have averaged just 3.5 rpg, scoring three runs or less seven times. They have been great at home with a 58-24 record but the units have not correlated with that based on the high moneylines and while this one is not that big, being favored over one of the best pitchers in the American League is a tough spot no matter where it is. Nestor Cortes was fantastic this season with a 2.44 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 28 starts with New York going 19-9 and while the Yankees have won the last four, they were all against non-playoff teams. On the season, New York was only 7-6 against teams that made the postseason. Here, we play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 batting .190 or worse over their last three games, with a bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. this situation is 147-85 (63.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (965) Cleveland Guardians |
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10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Bears have been more competitive than people thought they would be as they are 2-3 and the last two losses have been by a combined 15 points on the road but the scoring numbers are misleading. Chicago has been outgained in four of five games, three of those by 127 or more yards and it is getting outgained by close to 100 ypg. The Bears have the 32nd ranked passing offense in the league and overall they are 31st in total offense so while the rushing game has carried them through the first five games, this is not a good matchup. Chicago has averaged 157.4 ypg on the ground which is No. 5 in the NFL but Washington has been solid against the run, allowing just 110.6 ypg and did a good job against Derrick Henry last week, giving up only 3.6 ypc. Washington looked like it was going to pull out a last second win against Tennessee last week but an interception from Carson Wentz from the two-yard line handed the Commanders their fourth straight loss after defeating Jacksonville in the season opener. Wentz was called out by head coach Ron Rivera and whether it provides motivation we will not know but is shows the frustration and this is the ideal matchup to get back into the win column. Washington has outgained three of five opponents and on the season and it is getting outgained by only 4.0 ypg with the biggest discrepancy being a 24-8 loss to 5-0 Philadelphia. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a turnover defense forcing one or less turnovers per game, after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (105) Washington Commanders |
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10-13-22 | Rangers v. Wild -134 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -134 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA WILD for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. The Rangers took a 2-0 lead against Tampa Bay in the NHL Eastern Conference Finals last season only to go on to lose the next four games to miss out on a chance for the Stanley Cup. New York hosted the Lightning on Tuesday and got its revenge in a 3-1 win where it outshot Tampa Bay 39-26 and killed five of six power play attempts. Reigning Vezina Trophy winning goalie Igor Shesterkin made 26 saves as he started right where he left off but we expect a big letdown here as the Rangers hit the road for the first time in what will be a very electric environment. New York lost eight of its 10 road games in the playoffs last season and the Rangers will see a playoff atmosphere tonight. Minnesota is coming off a great season as it accumulated 113 points in 53 wins which was the best regular season in the history of the franchise. The season ended abruptly however as the Wild lost to St. Louis in the first round of the playoffs in a 4-2 series loss so the mission continues going into this season. Minnesota returns pretty much every key part from last season including the top line of Kirill Kaprizov, Ryan Hartman and Mats Zuccarello that was sensational as the trio combined for 105 goals and 252 points. In 11 regular season games after coming over via a trade, goalie Marc-Andre Fleury was 9-2-0-0 with a 2.74 GAA and .910 save percentage after splitting time between the pipes and is the full time starter heading into this season. 10* (12) Minnesota Wild |
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10-12-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Ducks -114 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the ANAHEIM DUCKS for our NHL Game of the Week. Anaheim opens the season at home on Wednesday and then it goes on a big five-game roadtrip on the east coast so this first game of the year is a pretty big one. Last season, the Ducks missed the postseason for the fourth straight time finishing with a 31-37-9-5 record and 76 points which put them in seventh place in the Pacific Division, ahead of just their opponent for tonight as Seattle had 60 points in it inaugural season. The Ducks bring in a great group of forwards with Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, and Mason McTavish and this young group is expected to carry the team to end the playoff drought. Zegras finished second in Calder voting and scored 23 goals, and 38 assists and he will be a big part of the offense this season. Seattle is coming off a solid 4-2 postseason that included three shutouts but did lose the last two and it opens the season with a pair of back-to-back road games which is not ideal. The Kraken were 11-27-2-1 on the road last season and this is a very young team with not a lot of expectations heading into their second year. They acquired forward Andre Burakovsky from the Avalanche in July and he will be a big part of the offense that scored only 216 goals last season. The number is not nearly as big as it should be even with the poor season from Anaheim last year but there are more expectations for the home team and getting off to a solid start could give us value with the Ducks going forward as well. The Kraken closed last season 7-21 in their last 28 road games. 10* (80) Anaheim Ducks |
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10-12-22 | Phillies v. Braves -123 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Phillies have gotten off to a great start in their first playoff appearance in 11 years as after sweeping the Cardinals in the Wild Card round, they held off Atlanta with a 7-6 Game One victory. That was a big win on the road in the opener but we expect the Braves to tie the series up which is arguably a must win game. Philadelphia is now 43-41 on the road and this will be their 14th straight road game after going 7-6 in the first 13 games and the offense has been up and down as it has scored three runs or less in seven of those and has averaged only 3.7 rpg over that stretch. Zack Wheeler has been on a solid run with a 0.52 ERA over his last three starts which is keeping this line attainable. His ERA on the road is 3.54 which is decent but it is two runs more than his ERA at home. The Braves are 13-7 over their last 20 games after failing to make the comeback on Tuesday and even though it was a loss, being down 7-1 and nearly coming back has to give them some positive vibes. Top starter Max Fried was lit up pretty good but the bullpen closed with four straight shutout innings with only one of the four relievers going more than 1.1 innings so most everyone will be available. The Braves are 55-27 at home and have profited over 12 units with big series sweep against the Mets to take over the division and put them in this position. Kyle Wright gets the ball after a great regular season where he went 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 30 starts with Atlanta going 24-6 in those games. This includes nine straight wins for the Braves. 10* (932) Atlanta Braves |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Chiefs accomplished their Super Bowl revenge with a 41-31 win at Tampa Bay but a return home keeps it rolling as this is just their second home contest of the season. Kansas City has outgained three of four opponents with the lone exception being the one home game against the Chargers where it got backdoored late on a touchdown with just over a minute left. The offense has not skipped a beat with the new receiver personnel as the Chiefs are No. 5 in total offense and No. 2 in scoring offense which includes a bad effort against the Colts where turnovers and special teams ended up being the difference. This could be considered a sandwich game with the Bills on deck but being a Monday night game against a division rival, that is not a concern. We played against the Raiders last week and it was a front door cover there as well with a touchdown with two minutes left. The victory saved the season after starting 0-3 and this is a daunting matchup in trying to get back-to-back wins and while the offense has progressively gotten better, facing an underrated defense on the road is a challenge. The Chiefs have the No. 1 rushing defense in the league so the big game from Josh Jacobs last week cannot be counted upon here. On the other side, the Raiders are No. 22 in total defense and No. 24 in scoring defense and should have no answer for the Kansas City offense. Here, we play on Monday night home teams coming off consecutive road games and playing a team coming off a home game. this situation is 34-14 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (480) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-09-22 | Bengals v. Ravens -3 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -120 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our AFC North Game of the Month. In one regard, Baltimore has to be livid after blowing a 20-3 lead against Buffalo last week but what better bounce back opponent could they ask for than divisional rival Cincinnati who blasted them by a combined 82-38 in the two meetings last season. Sure, it is not an easy opponent but because of that, we are getting fair line value in a rare situation involving Baltimore games where the road team is 4-0 in its first four games this season. In addition to the blown lead against the Bills, they blew a massive lead against the Dolphins and in a strange scheduling quirk, the Ravens opened the season with all four games against the AFC East and are a not to happy coming away with a .500 record in those games. The offense has done its part as Baltimore is ranked No. 3 in scoring and No. 12 overall but the defense remains an issue that plagued them last season. A change in coaching personnel has not helped as the Ravens are allowing 6.2 yards per play which is tied for fourth most in the league and while that may not be a good stat going into this matchup but they possess the No. 10 ranked blitz percentage and that can cause havoc against this awful offensive line. The Bengals have regained some of their footing as they opened with a pair of bad losses against the Steelers and Cowboys before bouncing back against the Jets and Dolphins the last two weeks. Those two wins fell right into their laps, however. New York was coming off that epic comeback against the Browns so the Bengals caught the Jets perfectly and the following week, they got Miami coming off a game against Bills in excessive heat where they had to play on a short week. This will be the second team they have faced coming off a loss and Dallas took care of business with its backup quarterback and now face Lamar Jackson who is putting up considerable numbers through the air and on the ground. Cincinnati is overachieving on defense thanks to a schedule that is ranked No. 21 in strength. 10* (478) Baltimore Ravens |
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10-09-22 | Eagles v. Cardinals +5.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Arizona falls into another plug your nose side but situation and value trump any and all love that is pouring over Philadelphia right now. The Cardinals avoided a 1-3 start with a win at Carolina last week and they moved to 2-0 on the road and will be out to break their 0-2 record at home and it can be done. One factor that should come back to the mean is avoiding slow starts as the Cardinals have not scored in the first quarter in any of their first four games while getting outscored 70-16 in the first half of those games so the fact they are sitting at .500 in pretty impressive. It has taken a while for the offense to get rolling but this is where Kyler Murray can have success. The pressure of the Eagles pass rush is one of the best in the NFL at 32.2 percent and that showed last week as they sacked Carson Wentz nine times but Murray brings the added element of getting out of the pocket and making plays on his own. After a bad loss to the Chiefs, Arizona has outgained each of its last three opponents so they have been sneaky efficient. Philadelphia started to make some noise in the preseason as it was getting extra love in the futures market in winning the division, conference and the Super Bowl and those early tickets are looking tasty as the lines have taken off. The 4-0 start is putting them near the top of the Super Bowl odds and that is also helping week-to-week as the Eagles have covered eight straight games and the lines need to be continually adjusted and have been overpriced here. It is a mix of the public perception of the Eagles, they are very good to be fair, and the public saying the Cardinals suck which leads us into backing an Arizona team with excellent value. The power numbers do not like Philadelphia too much and we are not talking about the ones on TV that are amping the Eagles up as they are as low as No. 8 mostly due to a schedule that is ranked fourth easiest. They have been flourishing with the run but face the No. 5 ranked rushing defense in the league. 10* (474) Arizona Cardinals |
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10-09-22 | 49ers v. Panthers +6.5 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. San Francisco improved to 2-2 on the season with a win over Los Angeles and is now in a tough spot where they have to travel east on a short week following a divisional win and one that had revenge attached to it from the NFC Championship from a season ago. The 49ers are now again a public darling which is always the case for the winner of the two late standalone games on Sunday and Monday and we are bucking the public love in this one. San Francisco played another solid game on defense as it remains the best in the NFL close to through the first quarter of the season as the 49ers are ranked No. 1 in both total defense and scoring defense and No. 2 in both rushing defense and passing defense. On paper, the Panthers should be able to do nothing and that is a big part of why we are seeing the betting markets all over the 49ers with 75 percent of the money holding their tickets where the line has gone from -3 to -6.5 across places on Friday. Getting to 7 would be ideal but that is unlikely going to happen. Carolina head coach Matt Rhule is clearly on the hot seat as there has been some suspect play calling in certain situations but to their credit, the Panthers could be better than their 1-3 record shows as they have been within striking distance late of all three of those losses. They have played a weak slate thus far so losing all of those three winnable games is inexcusable so they are put into a tough spot here but not a daunting one as they do possess the big scheduling edge. Playing at home has not worked out so far on this homestand with a split against the Saints and Cardinals so the third straight home game will send them on the highway on a positive. Baker Mayfield has shown his struggles against heavy blitzes but the 49ers are not a blitzing defense as their 22 percent rate is No. 21 in the league so while they still create heavy pressure, Mayfield can get around that and not have the ball batted back into his face. 10* (472) Carolina Panthers |
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10-09-22 | Falcons v. Bucs -9.5 | Top | 15-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Not often do we see a game that has both situation and matchup heavily favoring one side but we have that here in what should finally be the Tampa Bay coming out party. The Buccaneers were given no favors by the schedule-makers for the early part of the slate, until now that is. They opened with a pair pf road games at New Orleans and Dallas and then came home to face two of the top teams in their respective conferences in Green Bay and Kansas City with both resulting in losses. Tampa Bay now gets its third straight game at home and following a pair of losses is the best time to back Tom Brady in a strong bounce back situation. The Buccaneers are ranked No. 25 in total offense and No. 16 in scoring offense as they remain unbalanced with the third fewest rushing attempts in the league and now that they are getting healthy in some key spots, the balance should work itself out. Atlanta is 2-2 and could be 4-0 or 0-4 or anywhere in-between and this is just the second test of the season. The first came in a four-point loss in Los Angeles against the Rams but the Falcons were down 21 points late and a blocked punt return for a touchdown and a safety made the score more respectable. The other three games were against three bad teams and overall, the early schedule is ranked No. 25 in strength compared to the No. 4 ranked schedule for Tampa Bay. The run first offense is in trouble here against a solid Tampa Bay rushing defense with the exception of last week and one that has Cordarrelle Patterson on IR leaving the bulk of the rushing to Tyler Allegier. This means the game could be put into the arm of Marcus Mariota and that is not what Atlanta wants as he comes in with a passer rating that is fifth lowest in the league. Defensively, the Falcons have three quarterback hurries on the season, yes three in total, and their 1.9 percent hurry percentage is the lowest in the NFL which is not ideal when facing Brady coming off a pair of losses and some rare scrutiny coming his way. 10* (460) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders +2 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Everyone is down on Washington and that is hard to provide pushback on as the Commanders have lost three straight games following a season opening win against Jacksonville. Two of the three losses were on the road where they were outgained by only 29 yards against Detroit and actually outgained Dallas by 18 yards in the loss last week while the home defeat came against Philadelphia. We are not saying Washington is a very good team but it is not a four to five-point underdog to Tennessee on a neutral field. One very quick comparison to show how close these teams are is to look at the top level of both sides. In total offense, scoring offense, total defense and scoring defense, Washington is ranked between No. 23 and No. 29 in all four categories while Tennessee is ranked between No. 22 and No. 29 in those categories so this is a wash. The Commanders struggled to score points the last two divisional games but they did score 28 and 27 points in the first two games of the season and now face a defense that is going to allow them to move the ball without much resistance. Tennessee allows 6.3 yards per play which is third highest in the league behind only Seattle and Detroit so do not believe anything you hear that the Titans possess a strong defense because they do not anymore. The Titans won for us last week against the Colts despite getting outgained as they benefitted from a +3 turnover differential and now at 2-2 overall, they are overpriced. Tennessee has been outgained in all four games and while that aforementioned defense can take a lot of the blame, the offense is not far behind. The Titans are bottom third in everything and while they have averaged 360 ypg in two home games, they have averaged only 215 ypg in two road games and while this will be the worst defense they have seen, Ryan Tannehill is not going to strike fear as his No. 15 quarterback rating is about right. Treylon Burks is out and while he has not lived up to expectations just yet, it shows the impact of the loss of A.J. Brown. 10* (464) Washington Commanders |
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10-08-22 | Oregon v. Arizona +13.5 | Top | 49-22 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA WILDCATS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. This is a very good spot for Arizona as it catches Oregon on a winning streak feeling good about itself and looking forward to a big game against UCLA next week. The Ducks got their doors blown off against Georgia in their series opener but have rolled through their last four games including impressive wins against BYU and at Washington St. and they are definitely in danger of a lookahead here. The Oregon offense has been just fine as expected and the big improvement was supposed to be the defense with Dan Lanning coming over from Georgia to take over as head coach but the unit has not come round yet as Oregon is ranked No. 72 in total defense and No. 98 in scoring defense. As for the offense, Bo Nix has been excellent at quarterback over the last four games with 12 touchdowns and just one interception but this is Bo Nix we are talking about and put him in a tough road environment at night and his SEC road nightmares could come back to life. We expected Arizona to have a turnaround season as we took the over 2.5/3 wins and a win or a push is assured but all tickets will cash and the Wildcats have a great opportunity to see where they actually are in the Pac 12 hierarchy. The Wildcats opened the season with a win over San Diego St. and while the Aztecs are not very good, it was on the road, it was a needed confidence boost and it was a dominating performance. The two losses came against Mississippi St. and California and while both were by more than two touchdowns, they were outgained by only a combined 195 total yards so both were closer than what the final score indicated. Arizona rolled Colorado last week which is not saying much but it was another opportunity to get some meaningful time for quarterback Jayden de Laura who is a transfer from Washington St. and has shown what he can do especially now being used to his new receivers. 10* (364) Arizona Wildcats |
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10-08-22 | Iowa v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for our Big Ten Conference Game of the Year. The Big Ten has produced some early season surprises with Illinois being one of those as it is off to a 4-1 start including a 1-1 record in the conference and it could be 5-0. The loss to the Hoosiers was a tough one as Illinois outgained Indiana 448-362, had nine more first downs and controlled the clock for over 13 more minutes but had four turnovers and it had chances late as it got into Indiana territory on four straight possessions but resulted in just one field goal as it had a fumble, and interception and a turnover on downs at the Indiana four-yard line. The Illini have outgained all five opponents as they have been buoyed by a defense that has been incredible, ranking No. 1 in scoring defense and No. 3 in total defense and we saw what just happened to Wisconsin. While there might be the scare of a letdown, Illinois has not had a start like this in a long time so they are not going to look past this one, especially considering it is Iowa. This one sets up almost identical to another game we are playing based on one time intangible. The schedule worked in the favor of Illinois this week as they are playing at 7:30 ET which is the only Big Ten game with a kickoff scheduled past 4:00 ET so the Illini will have a significant home field edge as opposed to playing at 3:30 ET which was the original kickoff time. This is a rare instance for Illinois and we are going to back these unique occasions as this is just the second time in the last 20 games that the Illini are favored in a Big Ten game and they have not been favored over Iowa since 2008. Iowa recovered from its first loss of the season against Iowa St. but that next game was against Nevada and now at 3-2, the Hawkeyes are showing who they are. They have a strong defense but the offense is abysmal as they are ranked No. 119 or worse in all four major offensive categories. 10* (394) Illinois Fighting Illini |
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10-08-22 | Kansas State v. Iowa State +2 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 47 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Iowa St. is coming off a tough loss against the surprising Jayhawks as it missed three field goals late in the game that could have sent the game into overtime which came after a seven-point home loss against Baylor the previous week. The Cyclones need to shake those off quickly as they face one of the hottest teams in the Big XII and then are at Texas next week so a non-fully focused team this week could be a partial reason for a possible 0-4 start in the conference prior to their bye week. The defense has been exceptional as Iowa St. is ranked No. 8 overall and No. 11 in points allowed and it has been strong against both the run and the pass. Offensively, they have been below average and quarterback Hunter Dekkers has been pretty solid but his six interceptions has held him back and the Wildcats are nothing special on defense. The schedule worked in their favor this week as they are playing at 7:30 ET which is the only Big XII game with a kickoff scheduled past 3:30 ET and Iowa St. will have a significant home field edge as opposed to playing at 1:00 ET which was the original kickoff time. The Wildcats are coming off a pair of wins against Oklahoma and Texas Tech and that Sooners victory is not as strong anymore after their blowout loss against TCU. For the Kansas St. offense, it is basically what you see is what you get as the Wildcats are ranked No. 3 in rushing offense and No. 122 in passing offense and this is not an ideal style especially when facing a great defense and the style is only good for a total ranked offense of just No. 69. Adrian Martinez has carried the offense the last two weeks as he has seven rushing touchdowns and 319 yards on the ground against Oklahoma and Texas Tech but Iowa St. has the defense that can slow that down especially after seeing what the Cyclones did to Jalon Daniels last week despite the loss. 10* (356) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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10-08-22 | James Madison v. Arkansas State +11.5 | Top | 42-20 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. The public is starting to catch up to James Madison. In their first year at the FBS level, the Dukes are 4-0 and have covered all four games by a total of 61.5 points against the number. Their number got inflated last week against Texas St. and it was not enough and now they are playing their first ever road game as favorites and big ones for that matter. One cause for concern as that the Dukes know how to win on the road going back to the FCS days as they have won 13 straight away from home but of course, the opposition was much weaker and this is an interesting line. James Madison was getting six points in its only other road game this season and is now a double-digit favorite. The Dukes have been great on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 8 in scoring offense and No. 9 in scoring defense but it has come against a schedule ranked No. 157 in the nation. The ATS record of Arkansas St. offsets the James Madison spread record as the Red Wolves are 5-0 against the number but their success is not being taken into consideration in this spread based on our raw numbers so there is value on the home team. The Red Wolves are 2-3 to start the season and those two wins have already matched their win total from last season which two of their losses were close games late and the other defeat was at Ohio St. The offense is making strides as after being one of the worst in the country last season, they have been much more efficient and balanced and while facing a tough defense here, they will be able to keep up a chance for the outright upset is definitely in play. Quarterback James Blackman has been very solid as he has thrown for 1,212 yards on 69.7 percent completions with seven touchdowns and just one interception and he has big time experience coming from Florida St. 10* (354) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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10-08-22 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -3 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 46 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. We played against UTEP last week and going into the game, a question was asked. Which UTEP team shows up here? The one that narrowly defeated bad New Mexico St. (and we can add Charlotte to that now) team and lost by 17 points to an equally bad New Mexico team or the one that just defeated Boise St. by 17 points as a 16.5-point underdog? Last week, UTEP returned two fumbles for touchdowns and overall, had four takeaways which explains losing the yardage battle by 18 yards against the 49ers. Playing six games in the first six weeks of the season has its benefits as they know what they have, or at least should know what they have, and any lack of chemistry should be gone, but on the flip side, playing six straight weeks can be grueling especially with the way their schedule has panned out. The Miners have alternated home and road games through the first six contests so there has been no two-week stretch of being at home since late August. This team could be gassed. Louisiana Tech has gotten off to a rough start as it is 1-3 but the schedule has dictated that record as the lone victory came against Stephen F. Austin of the FCS while the losses on the road were at Missouri, Clemson and South Alabama. The game last week against the Jaguars would have been the one true game to look at to see where this team stands but nothing could come out of it as the Bulldogs had five turnovers including four interceptions from quarterback Parker McNeil so we can toss that out. Louisiana Tech came into the season with a new head coach in Sonny Cumbie and a new system to get the fledging offense back on track. He directed the Air Raid offenses at TCU and Texas Tech as offensive coordinator and if he can get the most out of the quarterback here, there should be plenty of points against this Miners defense. The small favorite collects. 10* (408) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
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10-08-22 | Ball State v. Central Michigan -7 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. This one has the makings of a name the score game for Central Michigan, similar to Kent St. last week as it outgained Ohio by 300 total yards but failed to cover for us, as the Chippewas are back home following a pair of road losses at Penn St. and Toledo to fall to 1-4 on the season. The schedule has been brutal with the other two losses coming against Oklahoma St. and South Alabama and the four losses have come against teams a combined 16-3. Coming off the loss against the Rockets, there is now work to be done in the MAC West with the Chippewas needing to go to 1-1 after this game with favorable schedule on the way to get some momentum going. The offense has been slowed down the last two weeks as Central Michigan managed only 31 points in the two contests yet the offense is still decent in the rankings thanks to previous success and now they face a defense that has been awful against FBS opponents. Taking a look at what the defense has done is not going to show much of what can take place going forward based on the difficulty of the slate. Ball St. is 2-3 to start the season with the wins coming against Murray St. of the FCS 31-0 and Northern Illinois last week by six points in double overtime as it overcame a 17-point deficit at half time. The offense has been pretty good over the last four games but only one of those was on the road which came against Georgia Southern and the defense has been the real story of why the Cardinals are not good now with not much expected to change. Taking away the 0 points and 155 yards allowed against Murray St. and the defensive averages go from an already bad 432.2 ypg and 33.6 ppg to 501.5 ypg and 42 ppg and anything north of 500 and 40 is not very good. A big issue has been allowing easy yards on the ground and that is heightened by the fact Ball St. has allowed 14 rushing touchdowns through its first five games. 10* (398) Central Michigan Chippewas |
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10-07-22 | Colorado State v. Nevada -3.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. Typically, revenge comes into play following a bad loss the previous season but the situation is different here with Nevada being all amped up for this game not because of a loss but because of former head coach Jay Norvell coming back to Reno after bolting for Colorado St. last season prior to the Wolf Pack bowl game and taking many of the players with him. They have not forgotten what they were left with when they travelled to Ford Field for the Quick Lane Bowl against Western Michigan and were blown out by 28 points and outgained by 272 total yards. While the Broncos would normally be the revenge prey, Colorado St. has taken their place here. Nevada last lost three straight games and it has not been pretty with the three losses coming by 69 points combined with the last two coming on the road at Iowa and Air Force so the return home comes at a perfect time as does its bye week. Quarterback Nate Cox returned after not playing against Iowa and while he did not put up big numbers against the Flacons, the whole offense was shut down but that will not be the case here. The Norvell move was a questionable one as it was considered a lateral move and it clearly has not started well. Losses against Michigan and Washington St. were expected but home losses against Middle Tennessee St. and Sacramento St. of the FCS were not and the numbers are ugly. The Rams are dead last in the country in total offense and No. 130 in scoring offense and the defense has done nothing to keep it close as they are ranked No. 103 and No. 126 in those categories respectively on the defensive side. Colorado St. is also coming off a bye week with is beneficial to try and regroup and hope the time off helped quarterback Clay Millen who is questionable after leaving the last game. While not very good, he is their best option and a dinged up version on the field is better than nothing but still not prime. 10* (308) Nevada Wolf Pack |
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10-07-22 | Padres v. Mets -130 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -130 | 37 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. For the Mets, the season came down to three games and the setup was near flawless as they had a one-game lead over the Braves in the National League East heading into their weekend series on Friday with their three aces on the hill with the lone disadvantage being all three games were on the road. The result was three losses. New York went from a first round bye and hosting the NLDS to having to win a Wild Card series and hitting the road in the NLDS should it survive the Padres. The good news is the Mets were able to waste the back end of the rotation against the Nationals and have the top three starters ready here with extended rest and it starts with Max Scherzer who ended up taking the loss against Atlanta in the second game of that series which halted a run of four straight starts of allowing one run or less as he allowed four runs on nine hits, tied for second most allowed this season, and allowed two home runs. His 2.29 ERA and 0.91 WHIP would have been good enough for No. 3 and tied for No. 1 in the National League respectively among qualified starters and his 145.1 innings pitched fell just under 17 innings short. He has been great over his last two postseasons with a 2.31 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 10 games and eight starts covering 46.2 innings. San Diego closed the season on a nine-game homestand where it went 4-5 and while winning was the goal, losing more would not have been bad as going to St. Louis would have been a lot better than going to New York. Yu Darvish has been on a solid run as he has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts and his recent stretch is giving some value to the Mets as he came here on July 22 to face the Mets and Scherzer and closed as a +175 underdog which shows the significant line difference. 10* (940) New York Mets |
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10-06-22 | Colts +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. It has been a strange season for Indianapolis through four games. The Colts outgained Houston by 218 total yards yet the game ended up being a tie and they followed that up with a 24-0 loss in Jacksonville as they were outplayed throughout and it was the eighth straight road loss to the Jaguars. They got into the win column against Kansas City despite losing the yardage battle 259-203 and then last week, Indianapolis lost to Tennessee by a touchdown despite outgaining the Titans 365-243. The common trait in the four games was turnover differential as the Colts are currently -6 in turnover margin which is tied with second worst in the league and anything close to even would likely have Indianapolis sitting at 3-1 or 2-2 at the very least. The win over Kansas City was considered a must win and the football gods granted that and coming off another defeat, they are in the same spot with another must win game and at the very least, they are getting a favorable line. While Matt Ryan has been inconsistent and Jonathan Taylor has yet to break loose to keep the offense well down the list, the defense is keeping them competitive as they are ranked No. 6 in total defense and No. 14 in scoring defense. Denver is also coming off a loss to fall to 2-2 as the offense continues to stumble along as last week was a great opportunity in a great matchup but the Broncos managed just 299 total yards and 12 first downs. They also suffered a big loss as running back Javonte Williams was lost for the season with a torn ACL and now the running game has to count on Melvin Gordon who has lost four fumbles already and has been the worst over the last four years. Like the Colts, the defense kept things close the first three weeks but last week against Las Vegas, they allowed 385 yards and 25 first downs so the Colts can build off that. Through the early part of the season, the Broncos look like they have the coaching disadvantage here as Nathanial Hackett still has not called a good game and being in the spotlight once again is not ideal. Here, we play against home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa, after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa last game. this situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (301) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-05-22 | SMU v. Central Florida -3 | Top | 19-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the UCF KNIGHTS for our AAC Game of the Month. This game between SMU and UCF has moved a second time as the game had originally been pushed back from Saturday to Sunday but was moved back three more days with the schedule allowing it to do so with both teams having bye weeks in Week 6. This is a big disadvantage for SMU which has had to change travel plans numerous times during the week and while their offense has been keeping things competitive, the defense has struggled the last two games to prevent the wins. The offensive gameplan should be fairly straightforward for the Knights and that is no establish the run to open up the passing game and they should not divert from this if there is not early success. SMU is hit or miss with the rushing defense as it is ranked No. 105 in the country, allowing 184.8 ypg and has been outrushed by all three FBS opponents. UCF has the personnel with the passing game although it has not been put fully on display yet because the running game has been so good as the Knights are ranked No. 3 in the nation with 274.5 ypg. But that passing game can have its coming out party here as the Mustangs allowed 510 yards passing on 75.5 percent completions, 9.6 ypa and five touchdowns against Maryland and TCU. The Knights defense has been outstanding as they are No. 26 in the country overall and No. 8 in points allowed with just 13.5 ppg and they have not played slouches as Florida Atlantic and Louisville are both ranked in the top 60 in total offense and while this will be the best offense they have seen, it is also the best defense the Mustangs have encountered. This line was -3.5 last week when the game was still scheduled to be played on Saturday and has not moved much and there is now value because of the travel aspect as it has disrupted the Mustangs not only in their itinerary but also the practice and preparation has been thrown all off course. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging 34 or more ppg and after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (422) UCF Knights |
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10-05-22 | Cubs -117 v. Reds | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The final day of the regular season is usually filled with some sort of drama somewhere but that is not the case this season as with the Braves winning the National League East last night, all playoff spots and seeds have been determined and even the Aaron Judge home run chase has come to an end. Most teams are getting ready for the offseason including Chicago and Cincinnati and we are basing this one on a significant starting pitching matchup advantage for the Cubs that would like to end the season the way it came into this series. Chicago was on an 11-1 run coming into Monday but has lost the first two games of this series 3-1 and 3-2 but even with that , the pitching remains on a strong close as the Cubs have allowed three runs or less in nine straight games, allowing just 1.7 rpg over that stretch. Adrian Sampson can keep that streak going as he has allowed two runs or less in seven straight games, posting a 1.60 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over that stretch, covering 39.3 innings and the last five all being quality outings. He has a 2.49 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 10 road starts. Cincinnati came into the series on a 1-9 run but somehow was able to find ways to win the first two games as the offense remains in neutral by scoring three runs or less in 12 straight games, averaging 2.0 rpg over that stretch and now face the Cubs most consistent pitcher down the stretch. It has not been the same for Graham Ashcraft as it has been for Sampson as he has struggled down the stretch with a 12.15 ERA over his last two starts which came after taking a month off as he was on the injured list due to biceps soreness. His rehab did not go well as he allowed 10 runs on 15 hits and a walk while striking out 11 in 5.2 innings over two appearances so the final month has not gone as planned. 10* (957) Chicago Cubs |
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10-04-22 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Brewers | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Game of the Week. Despite a 6-5 series opening win in extra innings, Milwaukee was eliminated from playoff contention with the Phillies winning on Monday so a once promising season ended in disappointment with two games remaining. The Brewers were locked into first place in the National League Central for the early part of the season and got into a horrible stretch starting in early July and ending in late August and while the division was probably lost for a while, the Wild Card was right there so there is zero interest in the final two games. Eric Lauer has had a decent season with a 3.83 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 28 starts but his command has suffered down the stretch and he has not been going far in games. Milwaukee has lost five of his last eight starts. Arizona has lost two straight games and five of its last seven and while also just playing out the string, it has been for a while and the future looks bright here from a team that has played hard even after being well out of it. The Diamondbacks are now 33-46 on the road but are even in money as they got some big numbers along the way and while that is not the case tonight, it is for a reason. Zac Gallen has been outstanding as he is a Cy Young contender and while he will not win in, being in the conversation is exceptional when playing on a poor team. He has a 2.51 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through 30 starts and he has gone 16 straight starts without allowing more than three runs. He has been his best down the stretch with a 1.06 ERA and 0.65 WHIP over his last 10 starts and his home/road splits are nearly identical. Here, we play on National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season going up against a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 43-19 (69.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (909) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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10-03-22 | Rams +1.5 v. 49ers | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Rams have won two straight games following a season opening loss against the Bills and can take sole possession of first place in the NFC West at 3-1 including an all-important 2-0 division record with both coming on the road. Los Angeles has an offense that has yet to show much as it is ranked No. 26 overall including No. 30 in rushing offense and this does not seem to be the ideal matchup to get the offense rolling but while the 49ers and strong on defense across the board, they have not played a team with a semblance of an offense. The Rams defense has gotten better over the last three games after getting lit up by the Bills in that opener. This is the last time the Rams leave home in October as they have three straight home games along with a bye week so this victory could set the stage for a mini run that could space them out in the division prior to the second half of the season. San Francisco lost a tough one last week in Denver and the offense has managed 10 points in two of its first three games. Jimmy Garoppolo remains erratic at quarterback and while he faced a tough defense last week, the Rams are not far off and he did struggle against a much worse Seahawks defense. Part of the issue against the Broncos was the 49ers running game that was non-existent after two big games to open the season and the loss of Elijah Mitchell is a big one and while Jeff Mitchell was ok last week, nearly half of his 75 yards came on a 37-yard run so he averaged just 3.4 rpc on his other 11 carries. They will be out for revenge from the NFC Championship last season but that is not an angle to accept based on this being an early season divisional matchup for both teams. San Francisco is 1-10-1 ATS in its last twelve games as a divisional home favorite. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last five seasons including 2-0 yesterday (Tennessee and New England). 10* (279) Los Angeles Rams |
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10-03-22 | Blue Jays -130 v. Orioles | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our A.L. East Game of the Month. Toronto can lock up the No. 1 Wild Card seed in the American League as its magic number is three games so any combination of wins and Seattle losses gets it that slot but with the Mariners finishing with four games against Detroit, Toronto needs to worry about itself. The Blue Jays have won three straight games after sweeping Boston, a team record 16 wins against the Red Sox, to finish 47-34 at home which is eighth best in baseball but it is their road record that has gotten them back into the postseason. They are 43-35 on the road and are on the plus side in units and has a good matchup here with Jose Berrios on the hill as he has faced Baltimore three times and has thrown three quality outings while posting a 3.31 ERA in those games. Toronto is 26-8 against the money line in its last 34 games with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season. Baltimore was eliminated from the postseason last week but it was still an unreal season as it because the first team since 1900 to finish .500 or better a season after finishing the previous season with 110 or more losses. Pretty impressive stuff and the Orioles come in in a bit of a slump as they have lost six of their last nine games and this is now the 11th straight games they have been underdogs so they still are not getting a lot of respect but this number is fair and probably should be higher with the stakes at hand. Dean Kreamer has been very solid this season since hitting the rotation in June and will be a big commodity in this rotation for a while. He has eight straight starts of allowing three or fewer runs but he catches this offense at the wrong time that put up 25 runs against the Red Sox over the weekend. Here, we play against American League home underdogs with a bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season. This situation is 54-18 (75 percent) since 1997. 10* (969) Toronto Blue Jays |
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10-02-22 | Broncos +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Josh McDaniels head coaching experiment is nearing a 0-2 start after he did not last two years in Denver and is now off to a 0-3 start in Las Vegas. The Raiders tried a late comeback last week only to fall short in Tennessee after a missed two-point conversion and it is safe to say their playoff hopes are already gone. Since 1980, only six teams have made the playoffs following a 0-3 start and that is out of 182 teams to start the season with that futility. Las Vegas has been close as each game has come down to the final ticks and while that is good experience to have, coming out on the wrong end each time is mentally tough and while this is a must win game, doing so against this defense will be a problem. 0-3 home favorites are just 8-20 ATS over the last 35 seasons. The Las Vegas defense has holes all over the place and was lit up by Ryan Tannehill last week as it is now ranked No. 26 in passing defense and now faces arguably the best quarterback it has seen. Denver is 2-1 despite an offense that has failed to surpass 16 points on offense but the situations have hurt those numbers. A pair of fumbles at the one-yard line against Seattle did them in and they faced one of the top defensive teams in the league last week but found a way at the end thanks to the quarterback. As mentioned last week, Russell Wilson has not been very good as he is ranked No. 22 in QBR as he is completing just over than 59 percent of his passes but now three games in and facing a horrible defense, this can finally be his breakout game with the Broncos. Denver has relied on its defense to stay above .500 as the Broncos are ranked No. 3 in total defense and No. 2 in scoring defense and while they have faced some poor offenses, the Raiders have been nothing special with a bad offensive line and while Derek Carr has been sacked only seven times, he has been under constant pressure and the Broncos bring in a top ten pressure rank. Here, we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. this situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (273) Denver Broncos |
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10-02-22 | Patriots +9.5 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Patriots fell to 1-2 on the season following a home loss against the Ravens despite outgaining Baltimore by 83 yards as turnovers were the difference with New England having four costly ones. That has been the problem in keeping the scoring down with the quarterback being the biggest detriment but things could be different here. Mac Jones will be out for the Patriots but at this point, going with Brian Hoyer is not necessarily a downgrade with his veteran presence as Jones is coming off a no-touchdown, three-interception game as his passer rating has plummeted to 76.2 which is ahead of only Justin Field among qualified quarterbacks. Yet, the line has gone up four points after it was announced he will be out and he is not worth four points unless there is a severe backup downgrade which is not the case here. New England is ranked No. 10 in both total offense and total defense which is rare for a losing team to possess and while we expect Hoyer to be just fine, the defense will play a big role here against an offense that has not clicked yet. The Packers have bounced back from their opening week loss against the Vikings but beating the Bears was nothing special and while taking out Tampa Bay may look good, the Buccaneers are far from full strength on offense so the last two weeks have inflated their defensive rankings. Aaron Rodgers is third in the league in completion percentage but has not been able to get a ton of production with a lot of check downs as his yards per attempt average is way down the list and he has only four touchdown passes. Offensively, they are No. 13 overall but just No. 27 in scoring and limiting Green Bay to field goals is of importance in this matchup with the big point spread in what should be a closer than expected game. a big weakness of the Packers defense has been against the run and we will see a healthy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris to take pressure of Hoyer and they can succeed. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (275) New England Patriots |
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10-02-22 | Titans +4 v. Colts | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our AFC South Game of the Month. Indianapolis got over the hump following a pair of embarrassments against Houston and Jacksonville and while we were on the Colts last week, it was a fortunate victory as it was more of a Chiefs loss than a Colts win. The offense remains stagnate as the Colts are averaging only 13.3 ppg which is dead last in the NFL and after putting up 517 total yards against the Texans, they have put up only 477 total yards combined in their last two games. Matt Ryan is coming off his best game with a 105.9 passer rating but the offense still stalled and he still does not look comfortable and his overall rating of 77.2 is third lowest in the NFL, ahead of only Justin Fields and Mac Jones. Defensively, Indianapolis has been solid and last week could have gotten out of hand but Kansas City had four drives inside the Colts 40-yard line and came away with just three total points. Tennessee is also coming off its first win of the season as it defeated Las Vegas which was a much needed bounce back from that blowout loss against the Bills. The Titans won by only two points but were in control throughout but let up in the second half and were a Raiders missed two-point conversion away from a likely overtime game. Tennessee scored touchdowns on its firth three possessions of the game and can certainly build on that in this divisional game as they are getting value this week based on the results of last week and not what actually transpired as those results could have been a lot different. The Titans have been below average on both sides of the ball as they are ranked No. 26 in total offense and total defense with most of that due to the Bills loss but the line has moved in our favor despite 75 percent of early tickets being on Tennessee giving us a solid reverse line move. We saw this last week on the other side as the majority of the money came in on the Chiefs yet the line came down with sharp Colts action taking more priority. Here, we play against favorites averaging 17 or fewer ppg. This situation is 21-3 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (253) Tennessee Titans |
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10-02-22 | Seahawks +4 v. Lions | Top | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 47 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Detroit is off to a 1-2 start with both losses being close and it blew a big chance last week against the Vikings as the Lions allowed a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns to lose by four points. In the first game against the Eagles, Detroit lost by just three points but was dominated throughout as it was a late charge in garbage time that got the game close. While they take a step down in competition here, they are now in some unfamiliar territory looking for a result that has been rare as they go from underdogs in the first three games to a significant favorite this week and the Lions have won only two times by more than a touchdown in their last 31 games. The offense has led the way but Detroit is down players on Sunday as it two top playmakers and banged up from last week with D'Andre Swift ruled out and Amon-Ra St. Brown very questionable and these are two big hits on the No. 3 ranked offense in the league. This team is horrible defensively as they are ranked No. 29 in total defense and No. 32 in scoring defense and while the Seattle offense has been in slow motion, this is a good matchup for the Seahawks. Seattle played well last week against Atlanta but was unable to make a stop when needed and penalties and a crucial sack killed its last chance on offense yet it still outgained the Falcons by 34 yards. The Seahawks have struggled in the running game this season as they have been outrushed in all three games but finally get a positive matchup here with Swift on the sidelines while facing a Detroit defense that is ranked No. 27 against the rush and this will be a big dynamic for this game. Detroit is a blitz-heavy defense and that could bite the Lions here as Geno Smith is a veteran that can pick up the blitz and work through it as he is 22-25 for 204 yards and one touchdown when facing that pressure. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. this situation is 22-2 ATS (91.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (261) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-01-22 | Stanford +17 v. Oregon | Top | 27-45 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the STANFORD CARDINAL as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Oregon trailed 34-22 with just 3:49 left against Washington St. last week but the Cougars gave it away and the Ducks capped the comeback with a 27-yard interception return for a touchdown to take a two-score lead with a minute remaining. It was a fortunate win for the Ducks which have now won three straight games since getting crushed in their opener against Georgia but this is now a tough spot against what we consider an undervalued opponent. The Ducks offense has been rolling since that game against the Bulldogs and they are currently No. 18 in total offense and No. 26 in scoring offense with good balance and they should be able to move the ball again this week but it is the other side that is the concern. Defensively, they have not been very good, currently sitting No. 79 in total defense and No. 94 in scoring defense despite a game against Eastern Washington where it allowed only 187 yards of offense and 14 points. Stanford opened the season with an easy win against Colgate but the schedule amped up quickly with back-to-back games against USC and Washington, the two best teams in the Pac 12 that are ranked No. 6 and No. 15 respectively. The Cardinal lost both games by double-digits but held their own, getting outgained by only 85 ypg, and now they are getting a bigger number than last week which is based on the scoreboard. The running game will be of the utmost importance here, not only to keep some balance within the offense but to keep the Ducks offense off the field. Stanford has a two-headed running back combo in E.J. Smith and Casey Filkins that have combined for 403 yards on 72 carries (5.6 ypc) and quarterback Tanner McKee had a solid game against the Huskies last week but a -3 turnover differential proved to be pivotal. Revenge is in play for Oregon following a loss to Stanford on the road last season in overtime and that was the last time the Cardinal have covered a game as they are 0-10 ATS over their last 10 games going back to last season and the value now is too big as that futile streak finally comes to an end. 10* (173) Stanford Cardinal |
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10-01-22 | White Sox -105 v. Padres | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The White Sox are playing out the string after having been eliminated from playoff contention earlier this week and they have now won two straight games following an eight-game losing streak starting with a home sweep at the hands of the Guardians which essentially put the nail in the coffin. Chicago is 43-36 on the road which is 7.5 games better than its record at home. This will be the final start of the season for Dylan Cease as he makes one more push for the American League Cy Young but could be a little too far behind Justin Verlander. He has a 2.06 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 31 starts that includes a 1.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 13 road starts with the White Sox going 10-3 in those games. Over his last six outings, he has allowed three runs just once and has a 1.35 ERA in those six games. The Padres have lost three straight games and are still holding onto the second place spot in the National League Wild Card standings, a game and a half ahead of the Phillies and two games ahead of the Brewers which are in fourth place. San Diego is just 41-35 at home which is the worst home record of all teams in the league either already in the postseason or still fighting for a playoff spot. Mike Clevinger came onto the scene later than usual following a year and a half off because of an injury and started off great but he has faded and coming off an awful September. He posted a 7.83 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five starts last month and will not be asked to do much here. Here, we play on American League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 hitting .260 or less and starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing going up against a National League starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (981) Chicago White Sox |
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10-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa +9.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Tulsa returns home following a battle at Mississippi where it ended up losing 35-27 as it played through adversity and a tough environment so easily cover and put a scare into the Rebels. The Golden Hurricane came back from a 21-point deficit to make it a one-possession game as they shut out the Rebels in the second half and had three different opportunities to try and tie the game but failed each time. The adversity that came into play was not the fact it was playing a team from the SEC, and a very good one, but that the offense did its part with a backup quarterback after starter Davis Brin was injured and Braylon Braxton took over and did a fine job in first real time playing experience. Brin is day-to-day but with Braxton getting the reps with the first team in practice this week, it will be fine either way. The other loss this season came against Wyoming in the season opener in overtime despite outgaining the Cowboys by 122 total yards so this team could be 3-1 with an outside shot at 4-0 had they gotten a late break last week. Cincinnati is coming off a win over Indiana by 21 points but outgained the Hoosiers by just 394-348 as turnovers hurt Indiana which included a fumble recovery for a touchdown by the Bearcats. They have now won three games in a row by an average of 31.7 ppg and they are now gaining votes in the latest AP Top 25 poll but this is a team that is still hard to get sold on, especially laying big lumber on the road especially against a competent opponent. Wins over Miami Ohio and Kennesaw St. were impressive blowouts but against much weaker opposition and one quick line observation shows that the Bearcats were favored by 16.5 points against Indiana at home last week which puts them under a two-touchdown favorite on a neutral field and that is roughly the same number here based on their road chalk and Tulsa is a higher ranked team than Indiana across most power ratings. This is a quality team no doubt but after blowing away most every team last season, Cincinnati is going to be involved in more competitive games this year and this is one of those instances. 10* (160) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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10-01-22 | UTEP v. Charlotte +3 | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHARLOTTE 49ERS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Which UTEP team shows up here? The one that narrowly defeated a bad New Mexico St. team and lost by 17 points to an equally bad New Mexico team or the one that just defeated Boise St. by 17 points as a 16.5-point underdog? Typically, we go with the latter based on recent form being more important than what happened prior to that but in this case, it was a monumental home win for the Miners and now hitting the road against a team they have no interest in spells letdown. It was monumental based on the fact it was the first time UTEP won as a double-digit home underdog in over a decade. The Miners came into the Boise St. game 1-3 that also included blowout losses against North Texas and Oklahoma and now they are favored on the road and by more than what they were favored by at New Mexico and that is the recency bias rearing its ugly head and we will take advantage with a Charlotte team that is back to full strength. We played against the 49ers last week and they held their own for a half against South Carolina but they imploded with turnovers and mistakes in the second half which led to the 56-20 defeat. Starting quarterback Chris Reynolds was solid in the season opener against Florida Atlantic but was injured and he missed the next two games before returning against Georgia St. where he went 31-43 for 401 yards with five touchdowns and an interception. He expectedly struggled against South Carolina but now the schedule is on his side as this is his first time playing at home and against a defense that has not faced a decent offense the last three games and yes that includes Boise St. which is ranked No. 122 in the country in total offense. Defensively, Charlotte has been one of the worst teams in the country as it is ranked No. 127 or worse in total defense, rushing defense, passing defense and scoring defense but now faces an offense that has scored more than 20 points only once and has reached only 400 total yards just once as well. Charlotte is in a great situational spot here and is definitely the potential live dog back home. 10* (210) Charlotte 49ers |
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10-01-22 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette +9 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the UL-LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS for our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. South Alabama came a few seconds away from a major upset at UCLA and instead of folding in a letdown spot, the Jaguars responded with a strong effort defensively against Louisiana Tech in a 38-14 win. The Jaguars are one of nine teams still perfect against the spread this season and at four games, that is the magic number we go against with the public going to be lining up on their side based on the spread record and recent results. After putting up over 500 total yards of offense in its first two games, South Alabama has failed to reach 400 yards of offense in its last two games and could struggle once again. While the scheduling situation is in the favor of South Alabama, the overreaction of this line is too much to look past Louisiana here especially with the line already having risen by a field goal since opening. The Cajuns easily won their first two games of the season at home but they have gone on the road the last two weeks and lost both games outright despite being heavily favored in both. The loss against rival UL-Monroe was an especially tough one and after those two games, we will see a focused bunch this week in their return home. Consistency on offense has been the issue as the quarterback situation is still in limbo after the first month of the season. Coming into the season, we noted in our preview that there will be a battle between Chandler Fields and Ben Wooldridge and seeing that both have different styles, both could see decent time on the field and that has been the case with both players seeing action in all four games. Balance will be key however as Lafayette will have to get the running game going as it currently sits No. 112 in the country in rushing offense with the inexperienced offensive line now four games in. Lafayette was a 12-point road favorite last season on the road, which means there is a three-touchdown adjustment almost to the calendar year and the Cajuns have thrived in this spot as they have been home underdogs three times over the last five-plus seasons and have won all of those outright including a 28-point thrashing of Appalachian St. last season. 10* (156) UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns |
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10-01-22 | Ohio v. Kent State -11 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the KENT ST. GOLDEN FLASHES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Kent St. returns home to open MAC play as it played three of its four nonconference games on the road at Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia and held its own. The offense could not do much in those games as expected but was a point and a half away from covering all three of those. Now being battle tested, the Golden Flashes face a team they can devour as the offense can come back to life like it did against Long Island and while Ohio is clearly a better team than that, laying 30 points less against the Bobcats certainly helps. Getting a true read on the offense and defense is hard in a spot like this considering the elite opposition they have faced, the No. 1 toughest schedule in the country thus far, but it does good going forward. If this sounds familiar, it is. Last season after a 1-3 nonconference start, the losses against Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, the Golden Flashes righted the ship, going 6-2 in the conference and went to the MAC Championship. Quarterback Collin Schlee is finding his footing and the one-two punch of Marquez Cooper and Xavier Williams is potent after the two combined for 2,017 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2021. Ohio took out Florida Atlantic in the season opener as it barely held off a late charge from the Owls and that defensive effort was a sign of things to come. The Bobcats then had a pair of tough road games at Penn St. and Iowa St. and the defense was lit up for 572 yards and 463 yards respectively which was going to be a given but last week was a total debacle as they hosted Fordham and gave up 52 points and 640 yards of offense and basically had to rally the entire second half to pull out the victory. Yes, Fordham of the FCS. The Bobcats are ranked No. 130 in total defense and No. 127 in scoring defense so it will be up to the offense to try and keep pace and we do not see that happening on the road as giving up 33 points to Oklahoma and 39 points to Georgia is a win by the Kent St. defense so matter how you look at it. Last season, the Bobcats finished No. 88 in total offense and No. 105 in scoring offense and are on pace for more of the same. 10* (204) Kent St. Golden Flashes |
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09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA +3.5 | Top | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 105 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the UCLA BRUINS for our Pac 12 Game of the Month. UCLA is off to 4-0 start following a Pac 12 opening win over Colorado this past Saturday and are back home to face its toughest test of the season and the line is telling us just that. There is not a whole lot of confidence in the Bruins, especially following a one-point win over South Alabama at home two weeks ago but this is a talented team and that scare against the Jaguars is just what this team needed. Against Colorado, UCLA won the yardage battle 515-309 including a 249-51 edge in rushing yards and quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson had another strong game, going 19-23 for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns and on the season, he is completing 74.8 percent of his passes while tossing eight touchdowns and only one interception and overall, he is the second highest rated quarterback on the conference, right behind his opponent on Friday. Head coach Chip Kelly made two excellent points heading into this week as he expressed that the conditioning of this team is outstanding as the Bruins have outscored opponents 78-21 in the second half including two shutouts. Also, he noted an edge because of the NFL experience of his coaches which gives them a preparation edge when playing on a short week. Washington is also off to a 4-0 start after another blowout win as it took out Stanford 40-22 and with the ease of the victories, the Huskies are catching some early CFP buzz, mostly due to the impressive win over Michigan St. But, that win has lost a lot of luster after the Spartans were blown out at home against Minnesota this past Saturday so while still a quality win by the Huskies, it is far from what it looked like two weeks ago. Like UCLA, the strength of schedule has not been great and this is their first venture on the road after playing the first four games at home. While Washington is ranked No. 5 in total offense and No. 22 in total defense, the Bruins are not far behind as they are ranked No. 12 in total offense and No. 20 in total defense and the scheduling is in their favor more than this being the first Huskies road game as this is the first UCLA game being played later than 2:00 local time so the atmosphere will be the best all season. Here, we play against road favorites after one or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after three or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (112) UCLA Bruins |
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09-30-22 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -130 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. San Francisco is not going away without a fight as it has now won four straight games following a sweep over Colorado and has taken nine of its last 10 games to get back to .500 on the season. The Giants playoff hopes were next to nothing two weeks ago and while they are still slim, the possibility remains as they trail the Phillies by 5.5 games for the final Wild Card spot in the National League with six games left and they also have the Brewers to deal with who are just a half-game out but nonetheless, San Francisco remains in must win mode and have a good pitching matchup at a good price. Alex Cobb had a streak snapped of 10 straight starts of allowing three runs or less after allowing five runs five runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks so there is some revenge in play as well. He has a 2.82 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 15 home starts. Arizona is coming off an day off on Thursday following a 5-2 win at Houston and Justin Verlander which snapped a two-game losing streak. The Diamondbacks are 32-43 on the road as the offense has struggled away from home, hitting .226 which is the fifth lowest average in baseball while averaging just 4.3 rpg. The offense overall has not been able to bust out as Arizona has scored more than five runs only once over the last 17 games, averaging just 3.1 rpg over that stretch. Merrill Kelly has had a great season with a 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 31 starts but he has started to fade down the stretch as he has posted a 4.15 ERA over his last six starts, allowing four runs or more in half of those. Here, we play on National League road teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. this situation is 38-15 (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) San Francisco Giants |
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09-29-22 | Rangers v. Mariners -113 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Seattle picked up a big win and a lot of help last night as it defeated the Rangers 3-1 while all of the other three Wild Card contenders lost. The Mariners are two games behind Toronto for first place and a half-game behind Tampa Bay for second place while sitting 4.5 games ahead of Baltimore whose hopes are fading. Seattle is 40-33 at home and it has won 25 of its last 39 games at home after a slow 15-19 start. The Mariners continue to pound right-handed pitching and on the season they are 65-50 against righty starters compared to being a game under .500 against southpaws at 19-20. Marco Gonzales takes the hill for Seattle and he has been a consistent rotation presence throughout the season and he has been great at home with a 3.36 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts and is catching an excellent number. Texas is really struggling here at the end of the season as it has lost 21 of its last 29 games including losses in 10 of 14 road game. The latter comes after a good start where the Rangers pitching was carrying part of the load but they have allowed 4.6 rpg over that 14-game road stretch. Jon Gray is getting his fourth start since coming back into the rotation and he has been eased back as he has tossed only 13 innings and the Rangers are not going to stretch him this late in the season and that can be an issue with the Rangers bullpen that has a 4.55 ERA over the last seven days. He has a 6.35 ERA in two starts against Seattle this season. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games. this situation is 70-48 (59.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (970) Seattle Mariners |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 76 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. The Dolphins are coming off a big home win over Buffalo in a game they probably should not have won and have taken over first place in the AFC East after their perfect 3-0 start. The upset victory already put Miami in a bad situation but adding to that is hitting the road on a short week after playing a game where the heat index of over 100 degrees was a huge factor and that is something that can affect the players going into this game. The Dolphins were outgained by 285 total yards as the offense managed only 212 yards and while that was against what is considered one of the best defenses in the league, Buffalo was banged up on that side of the ball with the heat taking its toll on others that made it through. This comes after the wild win in Baltimore the previous week where Miami came back from a 21-point fourth quarter deficit and a divisional home win over New England to open the season. We have already seen this number move in the Dolphins favor with early money hitting the Bengals side and will likely continue to do so. Cincinnati finally got into the win column as it defeated the Jets by 15 points following an overtime loss against Pittsburgh and a loss against Dallas and its backup quarterback. The Bengals were crushed by turnovers and sacks in those first two games and they kept those in check against New York as they gave it away only once while surrendering just two sacks. They get a break again here as the Dolphins have an average pass rush where they have accumulated only six sacks through the first three games and the wear and tear from the Sunday heat is not going to help. Joe Burrow is coming off his best game thanks to the offensive line that kept him mostly upright and the Dolphins defense comes in ranked No. 31 in total yards and No. 31 in passing yards so he should continue his ascent back. On the other side, Cincinnati has played well defensively, albeit against some poor offensive units, but are ranked No. 9 in total defense despite being put into some tough field position situations from the offense. Here, we play against teams coming off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 86-36 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (102) Cincinnati Bengals |
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09-28-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers -140 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our National League Game of the Week. With the 6-2 win on Tuesday, St. Louis clinched the National League Central championship which gave the Cardinals the season series against the Brewers which clinched the tiebreaker for the division title and the No. 3 seed in the playoffs. With everything locked up, the Cardinals will be sitting starters after the celebrations from Tuesday night so this is a big one to get on early as this line will be going up considering the Brewers are still playing for something. It has been a great run since the start of August as the division flipped by 11.5 games but with everything in place, Jose Quintana is in a vulnerable spot. The has been the best starter in the rotation since late July as he has allowed two runs or less in 12 straight starts but this is the one to go against as he will be limited in most likelihood. Milwaukee was on a 4-1 run prior to Tuesday and with the remaining schedule all being at home, there was positive momentum but now with the division gone, the Brewers have a shot at the Wild Card still. They are a game and a half being the Phillies for the third spot and with every game after this against losing teams, this is a big game to get that momentum back. Brandon Woodruff has been on a roll of his own as he has allowed two runs or less in 11 of his last 13 outings including four straight. In his 11 home starts, he has a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with Milwaukee going 10-1 in those games. Here, we play against road teams batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 76-25 (75.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (908) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-27-22 | Royals v. Tigers -105 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Kansas City and Detroit are fighting it out for the worst record in the American League Central with the Tigers two and a half games behind the Royals and both come into this series playing well of late. Kansas City has won five of its last six games and concluded its home schedule in epic style as it rallied from an 11-2 deficit in the sixth inning to pull out a 13-12 victory. The Royals are on the road for their final nine games on the road where they are 24-48 on the season and down over 12 units of profit. Zack Greinke has been one of the better pitchers at home with a 2.32 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 12 outings but on the road he has a 6.36 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 12 starts with the Royals going just 3-9 in those games. Detroit has also won five of its last six games following a road sweep against the White Sox over the weekend. The Tigers return home where they have been far from good 30-45 but even with the poor road situation for the Royals, this number is lower than it should be as the power ratings has this one priced out at -130. Joey Wentz gets the ball for the Tigers and he has been solid since coming back into the rotation as in three starts, he has posted a 1.10 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over 16.1 innings. This includes 6.2 shutout innings against the Royals earlier this month. Detroit is 24-6 against the money line in its last 30 home games off two straight road wins against a division rival. Here, we play on American League home teams averaging 3.9 or more rpg on the season, after allowing two runs or less in two straight games. this situation is 39-17 (69.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (968) Detroit Tigers |
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09-26-22 | Cowboys +1 v. Giants | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. The Giants have escaped the first two weeks of the season. New York won at Tennessee after going for and making a two-point conversion after a touchdown with a minute remaining and then took the game following a missed field goal from the Titans and last week against the Panthers, the Giants made a late game-winning 56-yard field goal, one of four field goals on the day as the offense continues to stall. New York is ranked No. 23 in total offense and No. 31 in passing offense and while it is a small sample size, this is what we expected. This line has flipped which is no surprise based on the Prescott injury. The Giants have lost eight of their last 10 games following consecutive wins, failing to cover all eight of those, and speaking of consecutive, they have covered only one time over their last night games after consecutive losses to the opponents so no double-revenge factor here. While the Cowboys offense is without Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush played a solid game at quarterback in relief as he went 19-31 for 235 yards and a touchdown and it is an edge that he has been in the system for a few years and he responded last season as well in his lone start against Minnesota in a primetime road game as he was 24-40 for 325 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The defense has been great thus far as Dallas is top ten in total defense, passing defense and scoring defense through two games. This is a swing game for the Cowboys as they are no longer the favorite to win the NFC East and falling two games behind the Eagles in the division is not ideal after only three games. Dallas is 11-3 ATS over its last 14 conference games while coving eight of its last nine games on the road. Here, we play against home favorites outscored by opponents by four or more ppg last season, versus division opponents. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (489) Dallas Cowboys |
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09-26-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. All eyes will be in Toronto starting tonight with the Aaron Judge home run record chase as he failed to get it done against the Red Sox at home. The Yankees have won seven straight games with the last six coming at home and they enter the week with a 38-36 record on the road while dropping 12.6 units in those games. New York can clinch the division but that is likely it as it is six games behind the Astros for the best record in the American League. Luis Severino has put together a solid season with a 3.36 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and those numbers regress slightly on the road but this will be just his second start since mid-July after re-entering the rotation. Toronto was riding a three-game losing streak but won two huge games in Tampa Bay on Saturday and Sunday to increase its lead in the Wild Card standings to two games over the Rays and that is a big spot that comes with home field advantage in the first round. The Blue Jays are 43-32 at home and while they are down over 15 units of profit, that is due to the overpricing of lines at home and that is not the case tonight. Kevin Gausman had a pair of poor starts against the Rangers and Rays but bounced back with a great game at the Phillies where he tossed six shutout innings while allowing only five hits and striking out eight. He has allowed only two runs in two starts against the Yankees this season covering 12.2 innings. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.9 or more rpg on the season, after three straight wins by two runs or less. This situation is 34-11 (75.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) Toronto Blue Jays |
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09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +2 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 58 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. Denver escaped with a win against the Texans last week as it won 16-9 following a season opening loss at Seattle and with the two unexpected results, the Broncos come in as home underdogs. A lot of this can be attributed to head coach Nathaniel Hackett who has made some questionable calls and is already considered a questionable hire but he should settle in once he gets more familiar with his personnel. To be fair, Russell Wilson has not been very good as he is ranked No. 16 in QBR as he is completing fewer than 59 percent of his passes but he can be given a hall pass here being involved in a brand new system and now in his third game, he should only get better even though he will be facing the best defense he has seen through three games. The Broncos defense has been strong since a slow start against Seattle in the opener as they have not allowed a touchdown in the last six quarters. We can see Denver improving game-by-game going forward and can show what is has right here. The 49ers lost quarterback Trey Lance for the season but having the best backup in the league helps as Jimmy Garoppolo came in and had a decent game, going 13-21 for 154 yards and a touchdown but the offense was not great overall with just 373 total yards. Garoppolo is definitely an upgrade here based on his experience and his 37-18 record as a starter in the NFL but as mentioned, he will be facing a tough defense here and easily the best one the 49ers have faced in the early part of the season. Similar to Denver, San Francisco has played no one so it is hard to get a measure on this team especially playing its first game in horrible weather but we do know this is a good roster but not in a good spot here with the Broncos playing their second primetime game and first one at home. This is definitely an overreaction line from last week as the line has flipped from Denver being favored at home, which it should be, to the 49ers now being favored based on the lookahead line. 10* (488) Denver Broncos |
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09-25-22 | Falcons +1 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFC Game of the Month. The Falcons have looked better than expected through the first two game as they lost a tough one at home against the Saints and fell short in the comeback against the Rams last week. This would normally be a tough travel situation for Atlanta playing out west in back-to-back weeks but the Falcons have practiced in Seattle all week instead of making another round trip to the west coast and that is a big edge. The Falcons have a big edge in this matchup in the running game as they are ranked No. 7 offensively and No. 15 defensively and going up against bad rushing units on both sides. Marcus Mariota has done a decent job in his first season in Atlanta as he is ranked No. 11 in QBR at 59.4 and his completion percentage of 62.7 percent should see a big increase here against a Seattle defense that is without its best player in safety Jamal Adams who is gone for the season. And he has done this without tight end Kyle Pitts who has only four catches which is surprising with Mariota typically targeting tight ends in check down spots. This is only the second time that the Seahawks have been favored with Geno Smith at quarterback with the first coming against Jacksonville last season and while the Falcons are not considered a very good team, the Seattle offense has really only had one good quarter on offense through the first two games. The only scoring for the Seahawks last week came from an 86-yard blocked field goal return by Mike Jackson as the offense stalled with a poor game from Smith and no running game to back him up. The Seahawks have been outgained 806-469 in their first two games and they are ranked dead last in the NFL in rushing at only 56 ypg. The defense has been ok but not enough to carry the anemic offense as the Seahawks are ranked No. 24 in total defense and passing defense and No. 25 in rushing defense and while the scoring defense is ranked No. 15, that can be attributed to the two Denver fumbles near the goal line that resulted in zero points. This is not a good team at any level. 10* (483) Atlanta Falcons |
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09-25-22 | Chiefs v. Colts +6 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. No one in the public wants to bet on a team that was shutout in its previous game but that is exactly what we are going against here. The Colts were blanked 24-0 against Jacksonville which was shockingly their eight straight loss to the Jaguars on the road. That dropped them to 0-1-1 following a tie against the Texans in Week One and to come away without a victory against the two worst teams in the division is a problem. It was a tale of two different games as Indianapolis racked up 517 yards against Houston and that total offensive output went down by nearly 300 yards against the Jaguars as Matt Ryan was terrible by going 16-30 for 195 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions but he is now playing in his first home game. the situation could not be much worse for the Colts as 0-2 teams struggle to make the postseason and with the third game against a Super Bowl contender, it may look bleak but a close game is all we need with this number. The majority of the money has come in on the Chiefs yet the line has come down with sharp action taking more priority so we are getting a solid reverse line move and the public could push this number back up closer to game time. The Chiefs have looked every bit the Super Bowl contender as they destroyed Arizona and then took out the Chargers are home last Thursday night but are now in a tough spot going back on the road against a desperate team. There is not much bad to say about Kansas City as the offense has been just fine without Tyreke Hill but the defense did struggle last week as it allowed over 400 yards and was bailed out by a pick six from 99 yards that caused a 14-point swing and ended up being the difference but still failed to cover. The Chiefs may have a lookahead as they have a big game at Tampa Bay next week. NFL home underdogs coming off a shutout loss are 12-2-1 ATS in the last 15 occurrences. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that was a good offensive team from last season averaging 24 or more. This situation is 46-23 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (472) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-25-22 | Bengals -6 v. Jets | Top | 27-12 | Win | 100 | 51 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Jets are coming off a miracle win over the Browns and the reason it can be considered a miracle is that they were a Cleveland kneel down away from losing 23-14 but Nick Chubb elected to take the touchdown allowing enough time for a touchdown drive-onsides kick recovery-touchdown drive finish for New York. The Jets were getting dominated up to that point as they had been outgained in the fourth quarter 136-8 going into those final two drives. Joe Flacco looked like the Joe Flacco that once ruled the powerful Ravens offense but we cannot see him putting together another effort like last week. But wait. He has produced two straight 300+ yard games passing so maybe New York is on to something here as opposed to starting Mike White but it took Flacco 103 pass attempts to get to those numbers and his 6.0 yards per attempt average is tied for No. 28 in the league and he happens to be tied with his opponent but more on that later. If the Jets had lost like they should have, this line would be a lot higher. Cincinnati has fallen into the Super Bowl hangover scenario as it has lost its first two games against teams that did not start the same quarterback last season. That is not ideal and while teams have had a hard time getting into the playoffs after a 0-2, this is the ideal matchup to right the ship. After a five-turnover and seven-sack game against the Steelers in Week One, Joe Burrow was sacked six times against Dallas as the offensive line, which made offseason improvements, has not looked good but the first two games were against good pass rushing defenses and Burrow will not be facing big pressure for the first time. The Jets have only three sacks and five pressures this season per Pro Football Reference so we should see Burrow go off for a big game finally. Cincinnati has moved from -6 to -4.5 based on the results from last week after being -7 last week at Dallas and while the Cowboys were without Dak Prescott and a few other key starters, the Jets are not nearly a field goal better than the current Dallas team so there is solid value here. 10* (465) Cincinnati Bengals |
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09-24-22 | Charlotte v. South Carolina -22 | Top | 20-56 | Win | 100 | 53 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. South Carolina is done with its toughest back-to-back set of games this season after facing Arkansas and Georgia the last two weeks, although a season-ending back-to-back against Tennessee and Clemson ranks up there too, and it remains home following a 48-7 loss to the Bulldogs. With a game against South Carolina St. on deck, there is no lookahead and they want to right the ship here and should have no problem doing so. South Carolina has faced three teams that like to and can run the ball with success and all of those teams took advantage as they averaged 236 ypg on 46.3 carries (5.1 ypc) but now it gets a break. Charlotte has run the ball a decent amount considering it has played from behind in the majority of its games and there has been no success as the 49ers have averaged 97.8 ypg on 28.5 carries (3.4 ypc). Sure, it can be argued they are facing a poor rushing defense but a look at the strength of schedule will tell a different story with the Gamecocks having faced the No. 6 ranked schedule and the 49ers going against the No. 84 ranked slate. Charlotte picked up its first win of the season after a 0-3 start as it defeated Georgia St. in a game it never should have won. The 49ers scored with under a minute remaining to seal the victory after the Panthers took the lead in their possession right before that. They did have their best offensive performance of the season with 501 total yards but the defense allowed 602 total yards so coming away with a win despite getting outgained by over 100 yards is very fortunate. Charlotte has been outgained in all four games by at least 100 yards and by an average of 178.8 ypg and we cannot see it keeping up with a Power Five team, similar to the game against Maryland where it lost 56-21 and was outgained 619-388. The 49ers were able to pass all over Georgia St. last week for 401 yards but do not expect anything close to that here. An added bonus is that this game as originally scheduled for 12 ET but was moved to 7:30 ET and a rowdy night crowd is just what the Gamecocks need. Here, we play against road underdogs getting outscored by 10 or more ppg, after two straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. This situation is 62-21 ATS (74.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (318) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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09-24-22 | Southern Miss +13 v. Tulane | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Tulane is coming off a huge upset at Kansas St. last week and is off to a 3-0 start where it also defeated a pair of cupcakes in Massachusetts and Alcorn St. The Tulane defense ruled in the second half as it shut out the Wildcats, forcing four punts and stopping Kansas St. on fourth down three times. The Green Wave had two scoring drives of 53 and 52 yards after two of those fourth down stops to score the final 10 points. Both teams had 336 total yards, Tulane had an 18-15 first down edge and both punted seven times as third down conversions were hard to come by as Tulane was 1-12 while Kansas St. was 2-15. While the defense was impressive, they faced a Wildcats offense that has their shortcomings and while allowing a total of 10 points in the first two games is certainly impressive, the opposition had a lot to do with that. The offense struggled last week and faces an underrated defense this week that kept Miami Fla. in check for most of that game. Tulane is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games coming off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992. Southern Mississippi opened the season with a pair of losses against Liberty in four overtimes and Miami Fla. but rebounded last week with a 64-10 win over Northwestern St. as it outgained the Demons 588-234 and while it came against a team from the FCS, it was a needed confidence boost heading into its last nonconference game of the season. The Golden Eagles bring back 16 starters and has the No. 7 ranked returning production in the country so this is a very deep team that is getting a huge number in this spot. The defense from last season was not great as they finished No. 80 in points allowed but that was a bit skewed as the offense had 31 turnovers, the most in the nation, that led to the defense being pinned leading to scores on short fields which upped the points allowed and falsely reduced the length of scoring drives and this is a unit loaded with talent at all three levels. On offense, the Golden Eagles exploded last week and ball control will be key here with Frank Gore, Jr., who is averaging 5.9 ypc, being a pivotal piece. Southern Mississippi is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 road games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. 10* (409) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles |
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09-24-22 | James Madison +7 v. Appalachian State | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 49 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the JAMES MADISON DUKES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. James Madison came into the 2022 season with a few unknowns, namely how would it handle the jump into the FBS? The Dukes came over from a very successful run in the FCS ranks following a 12-2 record last season including a 7-1 record in the CAA to win their third straight conference championship. No. 3 seed James Madison rolled over SE Louisiana and Montana in the first two rounds of the FCS playoffs before succumbing to No. 2 seed North Dakota St., the eventual National Champion by six points. It has been so far, so good for James Madison as it has rolled over its two opponents Middle Tennessee St. and Norfolk St. by a combined score of 107-14. The Dukes take a step up in class and will be playing on the road for the first time but this team is loaded and it could not be catching a better spot for their first ever Sun Belt Conference game. Not only has the host gone through the emotions of a full season in just three games but James Madison is coming off a bye week which was an added bonus prior to kicking off conference action. Appalachian St. opened the season with a crushing loss against North Carolina as a missed two-point conversion (twice) prevented overtime. The Mountaineers then went to Texas A&M and defeated the Aggies as close to three-touchdown underdogs and then there was last week. The Mountaineers took a fourth quarter, three-point lead but Troy retook the lead and then took a safety in its own end zone to keep a two-point lead but Appalachian St. tossed a 53-yard Hail Mary as time expired to win the game. We played against them last week to get the cover and will do so again here in what is the ultimate letdown spot. They have played good enough to win all three games for sure and now they face the unknown which is another advantage for the road team that has something to prove. Appalachian St. is ranked No. 38 in total offense and No. 46 in scoring offense and faces the top ranked total defense in the country albeit against a much softer schedule but do not be surprised to see the fireworks going the other way this week for the Mountaineers that are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games as a single-digit favorite. 10* (357) James Madison Dukes |
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09-24-22 | Buffalo +6.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 50-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the BUFFALO BULLS for our MAC Game of the Month. Eastern Michigan is coming off a major upset at Arizona St. last Saturday and the whole week it has heard about how good it is and there was certainly celebration taking place throughout. We are basing this play partly because of the line and going against what the public will perceive as a very short price based on last week therefore we are going opposite as there is more to Eastern Michigan than last week. The Eagles opened the season against Eastern Kentucky from the FCS and snuck out an eight-point win despite getting outgained by 97 total yards as they benefitted from five turnovers. They then went to Louisiana and got thumped by the Cajuns by 28 points before last week and it is safe to say that Arizona St. had plenty of issues going into that game considering how fast Herm Edwards was fired after the loss and now reports coming out about information being leaked to opponents. While it was a good win over a Power Five team, there is more to it than that. Eastern Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Buffalo is off to a 0-3 start following a 12-point loss against Coastal Carolina last week but the game was not decided until late and the Bulls could have been excused for coming in flat following a loss against Holy Cross the previous week on a Hail Mary to end the game. Buffalo opened the season with an expected loss against Maryland although it was a competitive game through the first half until the Terrapins scored on a 70-yard touchdown to open the second half and the Bulls did a good job against a very strong Maryland offense. The season is far from lost at 0-3 with this being the conference opener and they could not be catching their opponent in a better spot. Overall, the numbers are pretty similar with the offenses sitting below average and the defenses very below average with both teams playing a similar strength of schedule. The line has already risen two points and would not be surprised to see it get higher. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 58-23 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (355) Buffalo Bulls |
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09-24-22 | Clemson v. Wake Forest +7.5 | Top | 51-45 | Win | 100 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Clemson is off to a 3-0 start but there is something skeptical about it. They were three games the Tigers never should have been threatened in, which on the scoreboard they were not, as they were favored by at least 24 points in all three games and won them all by at least 23 points. Last week, they were up just 13-6 at the break and they broke it open in the third quarter with three consecutive touchdowns which came after a pair of interceptions and a turnover on downs that accumulated only 152 yards and then scored its last touchdown on a 12-yard drive. Not exactly going up and down the field. Against Furman, Clemson had only 376 yards of offense and was outgained by the Paladins, and in the opener against Georgia Tech, it had just 378 yards on offense and needed a pair of blocked punts to seal the big win. This offense is reminiscent of last season when it started slow and relied on the defense which it has done by allowing only 10, 12 and 20 points but here comes the first test. Wake Forest is also 3-0 and the positive news is that quarterback Sam Hartman only missed one game after taking a leave for a non-football related issue and has had two games to prepare for this one. He was not great last week against Liberty as the Demon Deacons won by only one point which was a game they did not show up for with a possible lookahead being the reason. They went ahead 20-5 and should have pulled away but instead allowed 18 unanswered points and eventually won the game by denying a two-point conversion at the end of the game. Wake Forest lost this meeting last season by 21 points as it was getting 3.5 points on the road and now it is getting a touchdown at home which does not add up considering the game was played in late November when the Tigers were playing their best and now the Demon Deacons catch them early where there seem to be struggles once again. Hartman did throw for over 300 yards in that game. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight wins. This situation is 63-27 ATS (70 percent) since 1992. 10* (340) Wake Forest Demon Deacons. 10* (340) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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09-23-22 | Tigers +164 v. White Sox | Top | 5-3 | Win | 164 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Chicago is coming off a big series with Cleveland but it came up small, getting swept in the three-game set at home and the White Sox are now seven games behind the Guardians in the American League Central. With their playoff hopes now dashed, they are 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League, this has turned into a dead series for Chicago. The White Sox are 35-40 at home and down over 20 units in profit because of lines like these. Lucas Giolito is coming off a decent outing against Detroit last time out where he allowed only one run but was not able to make it out of the fifth inning. He has struggled here with a 6.61 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 12 home starts. Detroit won two of three games in Baltimore to start this roadtrip following a 1-6 run that including two of three losses against the White Sox last weekend. The Tigers bullpen remains one of the better ones in thee league as they possess a 3.53 ERA. Detroit is catching another great price and despite being 20 games under .500 on the road, they are just -4.5 units thanks to big underdog lines similar to this one. Eduardo Rodriguez is coming off a quality outing in his last start and with the exception of a couple poor starts against Seattle and Houston, he has been solid since coming back into the rotation. Overall, he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 14 starts. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .540 coming off three straight losses against division opponents. This situation is 35-14 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (975) Detroit Tigers |
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09-23-22 | Nevada v. Air Force -24 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. Nevada is 2-2 to open the season and very could be 0-4. After winning the turnover battle 5-0 in its opener against New Mexico St. where it won 23-12, Nevada again took advantage with a 4-0 takeaway edge and it scored 21 points off those turnovers in a 38-14 win over Texas St. The 2-0 start was short-lived as the Wolf Pack have dropped their last two games, losing to Incarnate Word 55-41 as a favorite and then losing 27-0 at Iowa last week. One constant similarity from the first four games is that Nevada was outgained in all four of those as turnovers were the difference, being +9 in the two wins and just +1 in the two losses and the Wolf Pack cannot be expected to win the turnover battle against a disciplined Air Force team that is even in turnover margin through three games. Nevada is a team that was the most experienced in the country heading into last season with 22 returning starters to now being the least experienced coming into 2022 with only six starters back and that is definitely showing. They should not stand a chance against this Falcons running game. Air Force is coming off an embarrassing effort against Wyoming last week as the Falcons entered the game ranked No. 1 in rushing offense with 508.5 ypg but were held to just 171 yards on 40 carries (4.3 ypc). Overall, the Cowboys outgained Air Force 342-272 yet the Falcons had a chance to win but Wyoming came up big as it went 75 yards for the game-winning score. This is not the game to try and stand in the way of the Falcons as they will be out for a big rebound and will not be letting up no matter how big the lead may be as they need to regain the confidence and get back to .500 in the conference. Head coach Troy Calhoun has been here 15 years and has been in this situation many times and has succeeded as over the last 17 games, his Falcons are 13-4 ATS when coming off a loss as a favorite and playing a team with a .500 or worse winning percentage. Here, we played against teams averaging 4.2 or fewer yards per play on offense after gaining 2.75 or fewer yards per play in their previous game. this situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (310) Air Force Falcons |
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09-22-22 | Steelers +5 v. Browns | Top | 17-29 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are both off to 1-1 starts with all four of the games coming down to the final plays. Cleveland is coming off a brutal loss against the Jets as it blew a 13-point lead with under two minutes remaining as it had a blown coverage, allowed a successful onsides kick and let the Jets drive right down the field for the winning score. That thwarted a shot at the Browns starting a season 2-0 for the first time since 1993 after winning their first game on a 58-yard field goal with eight seconds remaining. Rebound or regression this week? Obviously, playing a divisional opponent will have Cleveland ready for this game but that loss is going to sit for a while and it does not have a great matchup here and Cleveland is laying more than it should be after opening as a field goal favorite. Myles Garrett is listed as questionable and there is a good possibility that he will not play but either way, he will not be 100 percent which will help out the Pittsburgh offense that has predicably struggled out of the gate. The Steelers escaped Cincinnati with an overtime victory thanks to the Bengals kicking game but were not as fortunate last week as the offense was horrible, putting up only 243 total yards so the fact they only lost by three points was fortunate. The defense played well without T.J. Watt and should do so again here against Jacoby Brissett who was solid last week but that was against a Jets defense and he was not good in the first game against the Panthers. Stopping the run will be at the forefront here for the Steelers and they have been good as they are tied for No. 10, allowing 4.0 ypc. Cleveland does not lay points very often in divisional games as the Browns are 0-6-1 ATS in this role the last two seasons. With a pair of solid defenses playing to a low total, the value is on the Steelers with an overinflated line and while going against a big, early line move can be the wrong way to look, it is too much of an adjustment with what we have seen over the first two weeks. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning percentage between .400 and .499 last season, in conference games. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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09-22-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Georgia State +2.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the GEORGIA ST. PANTHERS for our Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. Coastal Carolina is coming off a win over Buffalo to move to 3-0 on the season but it was not as easy as it should have been. The Bulls were in the game for a while as nearing the end of the first half, they went 80 yards to take a two-point lead into the break. The Chanticleers retook the lead for a good on a fumble recovery for a touchdown as it outscored Buffalo 21-7 in the fourth quarter. They outgained the Bulls 504-337 including 221-59 on the ground (7.9 ypc to 1.3 ypc) so the game should not have been as tight but costly mistakes have played a role early in the season. Coastal Carolina did struggle in the previous game against FCS Gardner Webb as it won by only four points while getting outgained by 141 total yards and that is playing into this line which is shorter than it probably should be so the public is all over the 3-0 chalk going up against the 0-3 underdog. This is the first road game for Coastal Carolina. It has been a disappointing start for the Panthers as they are 0-3 after coming into the season with a projected win total of 7.5 and a likely contender in the Sun Belt Conference although the latter is still more than possible as they have been on the wrong end of some bad breaks. They are coming off a bad loss against Charlotte as it was a back and forth game no thanks to a bad break as Georgia St. was driving to take a 14-point lead in the second quarter but Charlotte returned a fumble 58 yards for a touchdown and then put up another offensive touchdown to take it first lead. The Panthers looked to have put it away as they took a six-point lead with 1:43 remaining but the 49ers went 69 yards in 1:16 to score the game winner. Georgia St. won the yardage battle 602-501 and while that is a little skewed because of the number of plays ran, it kept the time of possession edge which is important in this matchup. The Panthers also outgained South Carolina and were outgained by only 46 yards against North Carolina so they have basically been on the right side in all three games but failed to come away with a victory. Here, we play on teams coming off a home loss by three points or less, in the first month of the season. This situation is 76-30 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (306) Georgia St. Panthers |
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09-21-22 | Giants v. Rockies +124 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Colorado is coming off a pair of losses to open this series as it dropped the Monday game in extra innings and lost last night despite outhitting the Giants. The Rockies are now 40-36 at home and are at +10.9 units of profit as they continue to be a solid team at home where the offense is light years ahead of the road production despite last night where they managed only three runs but still had 10 hits. German Marquez got thumped by Arizona two starts back but he has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last 12 starts and while his home numbers are not great, the Rockies are 9-6 in his 15 home outings. The Giants snapped a three-game slide with the Monday victory and has now won two in a row to move to 71-77 on this disappointing season. On the road, San Francisco is 32-41 and down -13.4 units of profit where the pitching has struggled with a 4.36 ERA, tenth worst in baseball. The bats have picked it up in Colorado but this is not a feared lineup that the Rockies needs to be concerned with. Logan Webb has taken a slight step back of late as he had a 2.77 ERA through July 22 but has posted an ERA of 3.59 over his last 10 starts which is still good but not like he was. He allowed more than three runs only twice in his first 20 starts but has allowed more than three runs in three of these last 10 outings. Here, we play against National League favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 45-26 (63.4 percent) over the last five seasons. Play (958) Colorado Rockies |
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09-21-22 | Mariners v. A's +187 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 187 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. The Mariners lost three of four in Los Angeles and lost the series opener last night to fall to 42-34 on the road and this is now the sixth game of a 10-game roadtrip and sixth game of their final 21 games all against teams with losing records as they by far have the easiest stretch of closing games of teams competing for a playoff spot. Obviously, winning those games is a different story and Seattle has not gotten off to a great start in trying to do so and it now sits two and a half games behind Toronto and a half game behind Tampa Bay in the American League Wild Card. Robbie Ray is not close to his Cy Young ability from last season as he has gone in spurts and is in the middle of a bad one and staying on the road is not ideal as he has a 5.08 ERA in 13 road outings. Oakland is now 4-4 over its last eight games with all four wins at +150 or higher and it can tack on another one here as it continues to play the role of spoiler. The offense has been hitting it well during this recent stretch as the Athletics are averaging 5.1 rpg over the eight games which is far ahead of what the offense has done the entire season so something is clicking. The overall numbers for James Kaprielian are not great but that is due to a rough start to the season and over his last 14 starts, he has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 of those, posting a 3.77 ERA over that stretch. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -175 or more batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games. this situation is 34-25 (57.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (974) Oakland Athletics |
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09-20-22 | Twins v. Royals +115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 115 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Kansas City is coming off a rough roadtrip where it went 1-5 but is now back home where it does show signs of life where it is 34-41 compared to a 28-48 record on the road. The offense is what has been the difference as the Royals are hitting .230 on the road, third lowest in the American League but are hitting .254 at home, tied for fourth in the league and they have scored 23 more runs at home than on the road in only three fewer games. Zack Greinke has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts and he has been masterful at home with a 1.93 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 11 starts with the Royals going 8-3 in those games. The Twins lost four out of five games in Cleveland culminated by an 11-4 thrashing on Monday and they are now out of time as that was the most important series of the season and they blew it. They trail the Guardians by seven games in the American League Central and they are too far back in the Wild Card race. The psyche of this team could be at a season low right now. Dylan Bundy has been inconsistent all season as he has a 4.68 ERA overall including a 5.93 ERA in 15 road starts with Minnesota going 5-10 in those games. He faced Kansas City in his last start and lasted only four innings where he allowed two runs on four hits. Here, we play on home underdogs after a game where they had at least 10 fewer hits than their opponent, after a game where the bullpen allowed five or more earned runs. This situation is 36-27 (57.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) Kansas City Royals |
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09-20-22 | Tigers +178 v. Orioles | Top | 3-2 | Win | 178 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. The Detroit bats came out on Monday as the Tigers erupted for 14 hits in an 11-0 shutout that also included great pitching from starter Tyler Alexander. That snapped a 1-6 run from the Tigers that are battling it our with Kansas City and Oakland for not having the worst record in the American League. Detroit is catching another great price and despite being 20 games under .500 on the road, they are just -5.2 units thanks to numbers like these. Joey Wentz has made two starts since re-entering the rotation and he has been solid with a 1.69 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over 10.2 innings while allowing no runs in his lone road outing. Baltimore is now 3-5 over its last eight games and 5-9 over its last 14 games so while after a great run to get into the playoff picture, it has fallen off at the wrong time. The Orioles are now five games behind Seattle for third place in the Wild Card standings with both teams having 16 games left and the Mariners holding the tiebreaker. They have been solid at home with a 41-31 record but the loss last night was a crusher. Austin Voth takes the hill for the Orioles has been an consistent as they come but he was limited to 7.1 innings over his last two starts and is now pitching 10 days between starts following a relief appearance so this signals a dead arm. Here, we play against home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher starting a pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 0.80 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 58-34 (63 percent) since 1997. 10* (917) Detroit Tigers |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles -2 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Eagles are coming off a win over the Lions by just three points while the Vikings took care of the Packers with no problem and because of those wins, the Eagles are underpriced. For Philadelphia, it dominated the majority of the game against Detroit but the Lions made it close with garbage yards and points so the Eagles +69 yards is also skewed. The running game dominated the Lions are they rushed for 216 yards on 39 carries (5.5 ypc) and this has been a consistent going back to last season as the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the league. Jalen Hurts can have a big game through the air as the Vikings were not tested against Green Bay and they possess a pair of below average cornerbacks so both A.J. Brown and Devonta Freeman could have great games. Defensively, Philadelphia was solid up until late in the game and they have the defense that can keep the Minnesota passing offense in check as Darius Slay and James Bradberry are two of the better shutdown corners. Minnesota was never in danger against the Packers as it scored early in the first quarter and was never pressed. The offense had 395 yards with Justin Jefferson leading the way to a monster receiving game but again, the Eagles possess a much better secondary than Green Bay and coupled with a solid pass rush against Kirk Cousins, the Vikings passing game can be slowed down here. Minnesota ran for 126 yards on 28 carries (4.5 ypc) which was fairly solid and it will be up to the Eagles run stop unit that improved on paper to defend the run but did not do much against Detroit do a better job here. Minnesota finished No. 18 in DVOA last season with a preseason ranking of No. 20 so last week cannot show us a true indication of the how the defense is. The Vikings are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game while the Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (292) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-19-22 | Mariners v. Angels +120 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our A.L. West Game of the Month. The Mariners have dropped the first three games of this series to fall to 41-33 on the road and this is now the fourth game of a 10-game roadtrip and fourth game of their final 21 games all against teams with losing records as they by far have the easiest stretch of closing games of teams competing for a playoff spot. Obviously, winning those games is a different story and Seattle has not gotten off to a great start in trying to do so and it now sits two games behind Toronto and a game and a half behind Tampa Bay in the American League Wild Card. Logan Gilbert has been one of the aces of the staff this season as he has a 3.24 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 29 starts and over his last five starts, he has a 1.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and going back further, the Mariners have won just four of his last 10 starts following a run where they went 9-1 over his previous 10 outings. The Angels have won three straight and 12 of their last 21 games as they have shown a big return with only one of those losses coming when they were favored and overall are +6.1 units in profit. Los Angeles has won five of its last six home games with the offense average a solid 5.7 rpg and the pitching giving up just 3.0 rpg. Jose Suarez has been pitching just as good as Gilbert as he has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts going back to mid-July after getting roughed up by the Dodgers and he has posted a 2.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over those eight recent starts. This includes a 1.93 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in four home starts with the Angels going 3-1 in those games. Here, we play on American League home teams averaging 3.9 or fewer rpg on the season, after allowing two runs or less in two straight games. this situation is 38-15 (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (964) Los Angeles Angels |
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09-18-22 | Texans v. Broncos -9.5 | Top | 9-16 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Denver is one of the three big favorites late Sunday afternoon and this one seems to set up the best for a runaway. The Broncos lost to the Seahawks Monday night in the return of Russell Wilson who was on the sidelines with the game on the line and that will have him ready to roll in his home debut in Denver. The Broncos should have won the game before that as they had two fumbles at the Seattle goal line that completely changed the flow of the game as well as going 0-4 in redzone efficiency. The Broncos outgained Seattle 433-253 as the running game on had 20 carries but had a 5.2 ypc average and Wilson was excellent going 29-42 (69 percent) for 340 yards and a touchdown with six different receivers having at least two catches. The defense did its job after allowing an opening touchdown as it settled in and has another great matchup here. The Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog. The Texans came through with a tie against the Colts which can be considered a win as they were outclassed but got the breaks they needed. Houston was outgained 517-299 as Matt Ryan passed for 352 yards and Jonathan Taylor rushed for 161 yards and it has another brutal test here and we do not expect the defense to get the breaks. Davis Mills had a very solid game and one of the reasons we took the Texas was the home split for Mills as last season he had a 109.6 quarterback rating at home where he completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 1,725 yards with 12 touchdowns and one interception compared to a 63.1 rating on the road where he had just 939 yards with four touchdowns and nine interceptions. The running game had only 77 yards on 28 carries (2.8 ypc) and will get stuffed again. A couple misleading finals gives us value here and the fact it is double digits is no issue as these favorites have hit at a 60.4 percent clip since 2016. 10* (284) Denver Broncos |
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09-18-22 | Patriots -1.5 v. Steelers | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 62 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our AFC Game of the Month. The Patriots obviously did not look very good last week as they scored only seven points but they did a decent job moving the ball as they got into Miami territory in all but two drives but they had three turnovers, including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, while also turning it over on downs once. The offense had only 271 yards but the possessions where they gave it back definitely hurt the numbers and we should see a cleaner game here. Mac Jones was pretty pedestrian as the back issue might have played into it but he still did complete 70 percent of his passes. They will face a tough defense but a different one from last week. Defensively, New England looked good as they allowed 307 yards and just 20 points and that unit should flourish in this matchup. The rushing defense allowed only 65 yards on 23 carries (2.8 ypc) and anything close to a repeat of that is ideal. The Steelers got the job done last week in a very unconventional way as they were outgained 432-267 but benefitted by the defense forcing five turnovers with a lot of those taking place after Cincinnati was moving the ball. Pittsburgh needed a blocked extra point to force overtime and a missed field goal from Evan McPherson to pull out the victory. The Steelers rushed for just 75 yards on 22 carries (3.4 ypc) and now Najee Harris is banged up and while he will likely play, he is not 100 percent. Mitch Trubisky was, well, Mitch Trubisky as he checked down constantly and was just 21-38 (55.3 percent) and if the Patriots can sack Tua three times, they will have no problem applying pressure here. With the exception of the turnovers, the defense was not good as they allowed 133 yards rushing on 34 carries (3.9 ypc) and while Joe Burrow was intercepted four times and lost a fumble, the offensive line had a negative say in that. To top it off, T.J. Watt is likely out for the season which cannot be understated. 10* (275) New England Patriots |
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09-18-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 61 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS as part of our NFL Sunday Underdog Three Pack. Baltimore was never in danger against the Jets but it was outgained by 104 total yards and while a lot of that was due to garbage time yards for the Jets, the Ravens offense was off. Lamar Jackson came out slow and ended up completing only 57 percent of his passes and while the weather did play a small part, his receiving corps is not very good and they did not get a lot out of tight end Mark Andrews. Additionally, they ran for only 63 yards on 21 carries (3.0 ypc) and Baltimore took a blow by losing tackle Ja'Wuan James for the season. They will be banking on the defense early on until there is more cohesion on the offensive side and while the Jets did not provide much to throw at the Ravens, this is a much tougher matchup as the Miami speed could cause some problems. Another season ending injury occurred on this side of the ball as well as cornerback Kyle Fuller is done. Miami won a pretty ugly game as it continued the home dominance against New England and while the overall grade for the Dolphins is mixed, getting that first game out of the way with a lot of new parts provides positive movement going forward. Tua Tagovailoa was solid as he went 23-33 (69.7 percent) for 270 yards and a touchdown and the dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 163 yards and that one touchdown. The running game needs a push as newcomers Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert had just 41 yard rushing on 17 carries (2.4 ypc) and while the matchup is not great, the improved offensive line should get better game by game. This number opened at -4.5 in most places last Sunday and the early non-public money came in to knock it down to -3.5 and getting the hook above that key number is big. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning percentage between .400 and .499, in conference games. this situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) Miami Dolphins |
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09-18-22 | Bucs v. Saints +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS as part of our NFL Sunday Underdog Three Pack. Tampa Bay won on opening night in Dallas as it was not a great effort and the Buccaneers were fortunate to face a bad offense that eventually lost Dak Prescott for a good part of the game. Tom Brady was average as he threw for only 212 yards and he struggled against pressure and while he was sacked only twice, he was hurried a lot and a lot of that comes down to the offensive line that was banged up entering the game and now they have to deal with an injury to left tackle Donovan Smith and is listed as questionable. The star of the offense was running back Leonard Fournette who ran for 127 yards on 21 carries (6.1 ypc) and he will definitely be a focal point for the Saints to slow down. As mentioned, facing a poor offense aided the defense but will have a tougher time here against the Saints that possess a lot more weapons. The Saints rallied past the Falcons on a 51-yard Will Lutz field goal in the final minute after falling behind 26-10 early in the fourth quarter. That provides some solid momentum heading into another divisional matchup and a much bigger one at home but are catching points. Jameis Winston took a while to get going but he closed the game strong in the comeback victory and he finished 23-34 (67.6 percent) with two touchdowns and most importantly, no interceptions. Jarvis Landry was the big target as he caught seven passes for 114 yards while Michael Thomas returned off a long layoff to grab a pair of touchdowns. Alvin Kamara only ran the ball nine times but at a 4.3 ypc clip and he can be effective hear as well after Ezekiel Elliott ran for 52 yards on 10 carries (5.2 ypc) until Dallas abandoned the run. The defense will have to improve as the normally strong rushing defense allowed Cordarrelle Paterson to run for 120 yards. Here, we play on home teams off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (272) New Orleans Saints |
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09-18-22 | Panthers +2 v. Giants | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS as part of our NFL Sunday Underdog Three Pack. The Giants pulled off the upset in Tennessee as they fell behind 13-0 at halftime, which could have and should have been a lot worse, and now they head home as the favorite which is too overaggressive after just one game. Saquon Barkley led the offense as he ran for 164 yards on 18 carries (9.1 ypc) with a big 68-yard run being a big part of that. Daniel Jones was not horrible as he was accurate by going 17-21 for 188 yards but that included a 65-yard touchdown pass so it was far from explosive other than that and he was also sacked five times. That will be problem here again. The defense did a good job in stopping the run as they allowed 93 yards but did give up 4.0 ypc as Tennessee did not need to run with Ryan Tannehill throwing for 266 yards on a strong 13.3 yards per completion. Defensive ends Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari did not play last week and both are questionable again. Carolina lost a tough one against Cleveland as it took the lead with 1:13 remaining but allowed the Browns to get into field goal range where they hit the 58-yard game winner. The running game was non-existent as the Panthers ran the ball only 19 times and the biggest part of the offense was absent from the awful gameplan as Christian McCaffrey had just three touches in the first 25 minutes in the game. Baker Mayfield was okay in his debut as he was 16-27 for 235 yards with a touchdown but did have one interception. He was sacked four times from the great Cleveland pass rush but that should not be a worry here. The one concern is the Panthers rushing defense as they allowed 217 yards last week and Barkley looked explosive again but we expect that to be better here against a poor offensive line. The strength of the passing defense will hardly be tested here. Here, we play against home favorites that had a losing record last season, in conference games. This situation is 163-97 ATS (62.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (273) Carolina Panthers |
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09-17-22 | Marshall v. Bowling Green +16.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 54 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Marshall is coming off an upset victory at Notre Dame to move to 2-0 on the season following a 55-3 win over Norfolk St. This is an epic win for the Thundering Herd and now trying to get up on the road once again against a much lesser opponent is going to be a tough task. Notre Dame took the lead early in the fourth quarter but the Thundering Herd got the lead back late in the quarter and then iced the game returning an interception 37 yards for a touchdown. Marshall outgained the Irish by 13 total yards with nearly even time of possession and both teams were just 4-13 on third down and while the Marshall effort was impressive, it really showed how bad the Notre Dame offense really is. The win is the second victory against a top-10 ranked team in program history with the first coming in 2003 against then-No. 6 Kansas St. Not much was expected of the Thundering Herd coming into the season as they had a 5.5-win total with only 11 starters back and a No. 103 returning production ranking. After losing to UCLA in the season opener, the Falcons are coming off a disappointing loss against Eastern Kentucky where they were favored by over a touchdown but this is a very experienced team that can regroup. Bowling Green jumped ahead 10-0 after the first quarter but Eastern Kentucky went on a 31-7 run that included four straight scoring drives that totaled 276 yards which was sandwiched around a fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Falcons responded with three straight touchdowns to take a seven-point lead but allowed the Colonels to drive 75 yards on 14 plays to tie the game with no time left in regulation. Eastern Kentucky knocked down a pass in the seventh overtime to seal the win. Last season, Bowling Green was one of the most inexperienced teams in the country as it played numerous underclassmen so it can be excused but this season, the Falcons have the most experienced team in the nation as far as returning production. Here, we play on teams off an extremely close home loss by three points or less, in the first month of the season. This situation is 71-28 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (166) Bowling Green Falcons |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State +17 v. Washington State | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Washington St. is coming off an upset over Wisconsin and while it is chalked up as a Cougars win, it can be classed more of a Badgers loss. After scoreless first quarter, Washington St. took its first possession of the second quarter 53 yards to take a 7-0 lead. Wisconsin took the ensuing kickoff and went 65 yards to tie the game and then forced a punt with 55 seconds remaining in the first half and went 45 yards in 35 seconds to take a seven-point lead into the half. The Cougars opened the second half with a field goal and went ahead midway through the third quarter with a touchdown following an interception. Wisconsin got inside the Cougars 12-yard line on its last two possessions but turned it over both times. The Badgers outgained Washington St. 401-253 but the turnovers did them in as did 11 penalties for 106 yards. In their first game, the Cougars snuck by Idaho 24-17 as they managed only 360 yards on offense so with two games with 613 total yards, beating a number this big will be a challenge. The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine nonconference games. It was an ugly loss for the Rams last week as Middle Tennessee St. jumped out to a 34-0 lead before Colorado St. made it look more respectable. The Blue Raiders returned an interception 32 yards for a touchdown on the first play of the game and the offense did its part after that, scoring on five of its first eight possessions with another 10 points coming off turnovers by the Rams. The defense was the real story as Middle Tennessee St. allowed 57 total yards in the first nine Colorado St. possessions, forcing three turnovers and six punts. The Blue Raiders outgained the Rams 380-246 including giving up -10 yards rushing 34 attempts (-0.3 ypc) in part due to having nine sacks for 70 yards. This came after a blowout loss at Michigan and head coach Jay Norvell is not off to a great start after coming over from Nevada. Sacramento St. is on deck for the Rams so there is no chance of a lookahead and this is a great opportunity for the defense to get back on track and the underdog price gives them a lot of leeway. The Rams are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (161) Colorado St. Rams |
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09-17-22 | Troy +12.5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 28-32 | Win | 100 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the TROY TROJANS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. After falling a two-point conversion short two weeks, Appalachian St. rebounded with a major upset at Texas A&M. The Mountaineers struck first after a fumble recovery led to a 29-yard touchdown drive but the Aggies responded by going 75 yards in seven plays and then their offense completely shut down. Texas A&M had only five possessions after that as its other touchdown came on a 95-yard kickoff return after Appalachian St. took a 14-7 lead and the Aggies mustered only 95 yards of offense while missing a game-tying field goal in the final minutes. The Mountaineers outgained Texas A&M 315-186 and held it to just nine first downs while possessing the ball for nearly 23 more minutes. It was a great performance following the disappointment against North Carolina and Appalachian St. in now in the double-letdown situation as an overpriced favorite that is feeling pretty good about themselves. The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Troy opened the season with a loss at Mississippi but bounced back last week with a win against Alabama A&M. Against the Rebels, a slow start doomed the Trojans as Mississippi jumped ahead 21-0 as Troy could get nothing going on offense as it managed only 59 total yards on its first five possessions. The second half was bad for both teams as the Rebels scored a touchdown to open the half but their next five possessions ended with three turnovers and two punts while gaining only 57 yards. The Trojans had more production as they had six drives that totaled 220 yards but scored only one touchdown as they had a fumble, an interception and turned it over on downs three times. The offense got it going last week, albeit against an FCS team, but it was a much needed game to get things right and the passing game will play a big part here as the Trojans have averaged 375 ypg through the air and the Mountaineers secondary could be susceptible here which is always a bonus with a sizable underdog than can sneak in a backdoor cover if it comes down to that. The Trojans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (155) Troy Trojans |
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09-17-22 | Georgia Southern v. UAB -11.5 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 52 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. UAB is coming off a disappointing loss at Liberty as it went on the road as a favorite and could get nothing going on offense and that changes here. After forcing a three and out to open the game, UAB fumbled on its first offensive play but no damage was done. The Blazers punted on their next possession and fumbled again on the next drive but Liberty missed a field goal and UAB took advantage by going 80 yards in four plays to take a 7-0 lead. The Flames tied the game early in the second quarter which ended the scoring for both teams before the half. Liberty added a pair of touchdowns and was ready to put the game away but fumbled on its own 20-yard line and UAB punched it in but the Blazers never got the ball back as Liberty was able to run out the clock. The Flames outgained UAB 390-355 and benefitted from four fumbles. The Blazers put up 59 points and 478 total yards in their opener against Alabama A&M and they have a chance to light it up again here. Georgia Southern is coming off a monumental win at Nebraska. Just how big? It is the first time in 215 home games at Memorial Stadium that Nebraska has lost while scoring 35 or more points. The Eagles had second half leads twice before Nebraska took a 42-38 lead with 3:05 remaining but Georgia Southern went 75 yards in 11 plays to take back the lead and Nebraska missed a game tying field goal as time expired. The Eagles outgained the Huskers 642-575 and while Nebraska won the turnover battle 2-0, it was hurt by 10 penalties that awarded the Eagles four first downs. The offense is no joke but it will be challenged here as the UAB defense was No. 16 in total defense and No. 41 in scoring defense last season and with eight starters back, they are in great form. While the Eagles offense hummed along, the defense showed signs of the big step back it took a year ago because last season was a disaster as the Eagles allowed 441.7 ypg which was No. 109 in the country and only five starters are back. Here, we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in their previous game, with five defensive starters returning. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (154) UAB Blazers |
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09-17-22 | Ohio +18.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 10-43 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Iowa St. brought the Cy-Hawk Trophy back to Ames for the first time since 2014 as it finally broke through against its bitter rival but it was far from pretty. The Cyclones had the advantage of facing one of the most inept offenses of the power five conference so far in the early part of the season as Iowa scored its lone touchdown on a 16-yard drive following a blocked punt and the Hawkeyes finished with 92 yards passing and 58 yards rushing. The Cyclones were not efficient either as they had three turnovers and had two punts blocked while managing only 313 total yards. The go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter went 99 yards on 21 plays that took 11:49 off the clock. This came after a 42-10 win over SE Missouri St. but it took three second half touchdowns to put the game away. The Cyclones host Baylor next week in their Big 12 opener so coupled with the win last week, they are trapped in this sandwich game. Ohio is coming off an expected blowout loss at Penn St. as the Bobcats were never in it as four-touchdown underdogs. Now they are getting another big number that is just over a touchdown less than last week against a far more inferior team than the Nittany Lions. The Ohio defense was far from good but they allowed only three third down conversions in 12 attempts and had five sacks and will be a less potent offense here. The Bobcats opened the season with an upset over Florida Atlantic as they held off a late charge from the Owls. Florida Atlantic took the opening kickoff and drove 75 yards for a score to take a 7-0 lead and never trailed in the first half, taking a 17-13 lead into the break. Ohio scored touchdowns on three of its first four possessions of the second half to take a 17-point lead but the Owls scored three late touchdowns and got the ball with 1:37 remaining in the game but turned the ball over on downs with 32 seconds to go. Here, we play against home favorites good rushing defense from last season allowing 125 or fewer rushing ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (127) Ohio Bobcats |
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09-17-22 | Oklahoma v. Nebraska +11 | Top | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. It took three games into the season for Nebraska to fire head coach Scott Frost and that arguably was something that should have happened at the end of last season. Following a loss against Northwestern in the season opener, the Huskers bounced back with a win against North Dakota and gave it back last week with a home loss against Georgia Southern. It was a game that was back and forth throughout and the Huskers were in good position to take it but the defense came up small at the end. The Eagles had second half leads twice before Nebraska took a 42-38 lead with 3:05 remaining but Georgia Southern went 75 yards in 11 plays to take back the lead and Nebraska missed a game tying field goal as time expired. The Eagles outgained the Huskers 642-575 and while Nebraska won the turnover battle 2-0, it was hurt by 10 penalties that awarded the Eagles four first downs. The horror stories of summer/fall camp are now in the past and we are going to see a much looser team under interim head coach Mickey Joseph. Oklahoma hits the road following a pair of easy home wins but the Sooners were not very dominant last week against a team from the MAC. It started the game with four straight punts and Kent St. was able to take a 3-0 lead early in the second quarter before the Sooners finally got the offense going with a 76-yard drive capped by a 36-yard touchdown pass with 18 seconds left in the first half. Oklahoma scored on its first four second half possessions to put the game away but they struggled again late with only 31 total yards in the fourth quarter on four possessions. The Sooners won the yardage battle 430-295 as the Golden Flashes did do a good job keeping the ball away from Oklahoma as they had the ball for over 12 more minutes while the Sooners were just 3-12 on third down. The Sooners will be fired up for this old rivalry but this is too many points to be laying with a team not clicking as of yet. Here, we play on teams off an extremely close home loss by three points or less, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (124) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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09-16-22 | Yankees v. Brewers +112 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 112 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Yankees have won four straight games and eight of their last 10 and they now have a 6.5-game lead over Toronto in the American League East with 19 games remaining. The offense has picked it up over this recent four-game streak as they have averaged 8.0 rpg but do have a difficult matchup here. They are 6.5 games behind Houston for the best record in the American League and New York is 37-34 on the road and down -11.2 units because of swing games like this. Frankie Montas struggled in his last start against Tampa Bay and he has been very inconsistent of late as over his last seven starts, he has a 5.95 ERA and 1.54 WHIP and has struggled on the road this season with a 5.20 ERA over 10 starts. Milwaukee once controlled the National League Central for a good majority of the season but the Brewers are now 7.5 games behind the Cardinals and the only hope now is catching a Wild Card spot which will be a challenge. They are 1.5 games behind San Diego for the final spot and four games behind Atlanta for the No. 2 spot and they come in with a 5-2 run including 4-1 at home while going 12-5 over their last 17 games at American Family Field. Adrian Houser got back into the rotation two starts back and has been good as he has a 1.63 ERA over 11 innings and he has been good at home with a 3.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in eight starts. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games. this situation is 66-46 (58.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (930) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-16-22 | Air Force -14.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our MWC Game of the Month. Air Force is off to a 2-0 start with a pair of blowout wins over Northern Iowa of the FCS and Colorado as it has won by a combined score of 89-27 and it won the yardage battle by 286 and 317 yards. This is the first road game of the season but the road has not been an issue as the Falcons were 5-0 last season and this should not be a matchup to worry about. Quarterback Hazziq Daniels is back after finishing second on the team in rushing and while the passing game was limited as he completed only 45.7 percent of his passes, he led the country with 22.6 yards per completion. Leading rusher Brad Roberts returns and there is a decent amount of depth behind him and the offensive line has three starters back with all five up front having solid experience. The top three rushers this season have gained 597 yards on 69 carries (8.7 ypc). Good rushing performances for the Falcons have been followed up with more of the same as they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game. Wyoming has bounced back from an opening loss at Illinois 38-6 with a pair of wins as it defeated Tulsa in overtime and then defeated Northern Colorado of the FCS last week 33-10. In the win over Tulsa, the Cowboys were outgained 521-399 as their points were also bolstered by defense and special teams as they had a sack/fumble that was recovered in the endzone for a touchdown and also blocked a punt for a touchdown. While the rushing defense has been solid the last two games, those were against inept running teams and Wyoming allowed 260 yards rushing on 41 carries (6.3 ypc) against Illinois and with only four starters back overall and two of those along the defensive line, this is an issue as the rushing defense was the liability last season. Offensively, they only have four starters back as well and the Cowboys had only 294 yards against Northern Colorado last week. Here, we play on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with four or more total starters and an experienced quarterback returning going up against teams with new starting quarterback. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (107) Air Force Falcons |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Week Two of the NFL season is all about overreactions. One game in and in a lot of cases, opinions are formed based on those performances and while it can hold some water, the circumstances play a part which can lead to these overreactions. Everyone knew Kansas City was going to be one of the top teams in the league and after its performance in the desert, the Chiefs are going to be even more of a public team than before and this is where a circumstance does come into play. They faced an Arizona defense that was decimated with injuries, so being favored on the road and covering while dominating the game comes as no surprise and because they outgained the Cardinals by 206 yards in a 23-point win, this line has moved off the key number of the -3 opener. Patrick Mahomes looked awesome last week and he should have but now he faces a completely different defense that will be applying pressure all night, something Arizona was unable to do as it registered no sacks. The Chargers gained some revenge last week with the win over the Raiders who kept them out of the playoffs last season after the season ending loss in overtime. Hitting the road on a short week is never easy but it is not as bad in Week Two as opposed to later in the season when fatigue is more of a factor. Los Angeles put up 355 yards of offense which was pretty average as the running game could get nothing going as they rushed for just 76 yards on 31 carries (2.5 ypc) and should have more success here. Justin Herbert was excellent even after Keenan Allen went down as he was 26-34 for 279 yards and three touchdowns. He spread the ball around to nine different pass catchers that each had at least two receptions. Going back to the pressure on the quarterback, Los Angeles sacked Derek Carr six times. This series has been tight over the last few years with Kansas City winning five of the eight meetings since 2018 and all three of those Chargers wins were in Kansas City. In the eight games, Los Angeles outgained the Chiefs six times with the two exceptions coming last season in the 1-1 split. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers. This situation is 127-72 ATS (63.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (103) Los Angeles Chargers |
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09-14-22 | Rays v. Blue Jays -110 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our A.L. East Game of the Month. Toronto and Tampa Bay are coming off a split of their double-header on Tuesday and the Blue Jays have a 2-1 lead in this all-important five-game series and now must face the two aces in the final two games of the set. Tampa Bay broke a three-game losing streak with a win in the double-header opener but gave it back in the nightcap and this 1-4 run has followed a 20-5 which got the Rays to where they are. The schedule was in their favor as of those 25 games, 16 were at home where they went 14-2 and in the nine road games, four were against the slumping Yankees and the other five came against non-playoff teams Boston and Miami. Drew Rasmussen would be the ace on most other teams but he is second in line here and he has been great with a 1.62 ERA in his last nine start with Tampa Bay going 8-1 so this can be considered a contrarian play against him but his opponents has been nearly as good. Toronto has a half-game lead over Tampa Bay and Seattle for the top Wild Card in the American League and the top seed is a big one as that team will host all three games in the Wild Card round. The Blue Jays have made a run at the right time as they were on the outside looking in for a couple days but have gone 19-8 over their last 27 games to leapfrog all three teams. They are 40-30 at home compared to Tampa Bay being 32-38 on the road. Ross Stripling has quietly put together five straight quality starts and he has allowed three runs or less in 15 straight outings, posting a 2.55 ERA over that stretch with Toronto going 11-4 so the fact he is a slight favorite is no surprise based on the home/road records of the two teams. Here, we play on American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 allowing 4.4 or fewer rpg on the season going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 74-30 (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Toronto Blue Jays |
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09-13-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox +148 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. The Yankees are back to their winning ways following a disaster few weeks as they have won six of their last eight games including a big series win over Tampa Bay this past weekend which kept the Rays at bay in the American League East. New York hits the road against its biggest rival and while this game is meaningless for playoff implications, anything can happen. New York is 35-34 on the road and down -13.2 units because of swing games like and while their ace is on the hill, nothing is certain. Gerit Cole has been very good but not great with a 3.20 ERA on the season including a 3.43 ERA in 13 road starts and Fenway has not been a great place as he has a 5.45 ERA in seven starts, his highest ERA in any park with more than four starts. Boston took two of three at Baltimore after getting swept in Tampa Bay and it heads back home with nothing to play for expect spoiler. The Red Sox have won six of their last seven home games to get over .500 on the season and get a great price here. Nick Pivetta has made some positive adjustments after an awful July where he had a 9.38 ERA but he has a 3.68 ERA over his last seven starts and he has allowed three runs or less in six of those seven starts. Here, we play on home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 after scoring two runs or less going up against an opponent after scoring nine runs or more. This situation is 44-29 (60.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (974) Boston Red Sox |
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09-13-22 | Astros v. Tigers +197 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. After a 7-0 series opening loss Monday, Detroit has lost nine of its last 13 games as its offense has not shown much of late either, getting shutout over its last two games which followed a four-game run where it put up an average of 6.7 rpg. The Tigers have not been good at home as they are 29-41 but have won their share of big underdog games as they are down -6.4 units despite the 12-game differential in the record. This is where the value is though and Drew Hutchison adds to that. He has pitched very solid of late as he has a 3.27 ERA over his last eight starts and has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his 14 outings overall with Detroit winning his last three starts. The Astros have won two straight games and nine of their last 12 to increase their lead in the American League to six games over the Yankees for the best record and home field in the playoffs. Houston is 44-28 on the road but just +7.7 units in profit with some of those 28 losses being as big favorites and that is the case here despite a starting pitcher making just his second ever start. Hunter Brown is coming off a great Major League debut against Texas, allowing three hits while striking out five batters over six scoreless innings. He walked only one batter after posting a 10.6 percent walk rate in the minors as control could remain an issue. Here, we play on home teams after getting shut out in two straight games. This situation is 110-65 (62.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (970) Detroit Tigers |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. This game sets up pretty similar to that of the Eagles/Lions game where we have a very public Super Bowl side future laying a touchdown on the road and the said public all over that side in Game One. Denver got the top quarterback prize in the offseason, trading for Russell Wilson and trading a lot for him but other than that, this is pretty much the same team that has missed the playoffs for six straight seasons. The big narrative heading into this season in that the last two Super Bowl champions had a losing record in the previous season, brought in a new quarterback and won it all but that is such a meaningless reason to back a team. Wilson struggled last season but to his credit, he did play part of the season hurt with an injured finger yet he had better weapons in Seattle in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett although he does have an upgraded offensive line. Still, not a reason to be laying a touchdown on the road. Seattle is expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFC but do not tell that to the Bears as we saw Sunday, Week One is very volatile and there were trap lines all over the place. The Seahawks will go with Geno Smith at quarterback who is a below average starter but he went 3-0 against the number last season in the three games he played without Wilson and he has been around this league long enough to know how to manage a situation as does his head coach. Clearly, the Seahawks will want to have success running the ball to shorten the game and keep the ball away from Wilson and the fact that linebacker Josey Jewell is out for the Broncos is a huge break for Seattle. This line opened at 3.5 and has been bet through the roof and we are going against that here in what looks like another live underdog opening week. 10* (482) Seattle Seahawks |
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