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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-02-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Detroit Pistons -1.5 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Lakers ended their homestand with a win over Toronto in overtime, snapping their four-game losing streak and handing the Raptors just their fourth loss of the season. It has obviously been a tough year for Los Angeles thus far but to its credit, it has played the second toughest schedule in the league as 15 of 17 gamers have come against the top half and this is their first road game against a team below .500 so it could be questioned how they will perform but I expect a letdown. The Pistons have been just as bad and are mired in an eight-game losing streak but the opposition has been pretty difficult and tonight presents a great opportunity to snap the skid. Detroit is one of just four teams in the NBA that is winless against the top 16 of the league but it has fared better against the lower portion of the power rankings and that is certainly where the Lakers fall. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive overs, an excellent offensive team averaging 102 or more ppg going up against a poor defensive team, allowing between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (506) Detroit Pistons |
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12-02-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. New York Knicks OVER 189 | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Knicks are on a four-game losing streak as the early season has been a disaster as the offense has had a tough time scoring points. New York is near the bottom of the league in scoring at 93.4 ppg but the shooting itself has not been that bad as the Knicks are middle of the pack in shooting percentage and are near the top in three-point shooting. They are coming off games of scoring 78 and 79 points which are their two lowest outputs of the season but I expect New York's offense to come to life tonight. Brooklyn has gone under the total in four straight games and seven of its last eight but looking at the closing numbers shows that we are getting great value here with a total that is lower than it normally would be. These teams played last month and the total was three points higher and that one went over. The Nets have a similar offense as the Knicks and their defense has not been up to par this season as they are allowing over 100 ppg on season and over 101 ppg on the road. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last four games following a double-digit loss at home while the over is 20-7-1 in the Knicks last 28 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Over (507) Brooklyn Nets/(508) New York Knicks |
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12-01-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz +3.5 | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
The Nuggets head to Utah to try and get over the .500 mark and this is the third time this season they have been road favorites. The first time resulted in a loss at Oklahoma City and the second time resulted in a win over the Lakers but it took overtime to get it done. Denver is in a very difficult spot tonight as it is coming off a revenge win over Phoenix at home and has a revenge game on deck tomorrow night at home against Portland, where it lost by 17 points in the last meeting. Utah will be looking to snap its five-game losing skid which includes losses in three straight games at home. The Jazz are 3-5 at home which is the same record as the Denver record on the road which makes this line overadjusted based on the overall results. Utah is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss while going 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, Utah is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games after allowing 105 or more points including a perfect 5-0 ATS this season while Denver is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game. 10* (706) Utah Jazz |
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12-01-14 | Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets +7 | Top | 16-13 | Win | 105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Miami is coming off a hard fought loss in Denver last Sunday and now it goes from close to a touchdown road underdog to a touchdown road favorite. The Dolphins need to win this game to keep pace in the AFC playoffs and that is being reflected in this line as we are getting a great amount of value on the home team that is playing for nothing but spoiler. The Dolphins blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead in Denver and that was the team's first loss after entering the fourth with a lead of more than 10 points in 14 years so regrouping from that is a big task. The Jets are coming off a horrible performance in Detroit last Monday against Buffalo and the public has taken notice with Miami being the big betting favorite tonight. The return of Geno Smith at quarterback is an edge as the Miami secondary unit is weakened with the loss of cornerbacks Jamar Taylor and Cortland Finnegan, with rookie Walt Aikens likely to replace one of them in the starting lineup. On the other side, the New York defense is ranked seventh in the NFL and should be able to contain 18th ranked Dolphins offense. Here, we play on home teams after scoring nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (476) New York Jets |
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11-30-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 213 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Portland is coming off a loss at home against Memphis on Friday as the defense allowed 112 points and after that defeat, I expect the defense to lock down on Sunday. It was the second straight game that the Blazers have gone over and the last time they allowed this many points, 113 against Denver, they followed it up by allowing just 87 points in their next game. Minnesota is coming off a high scoring game last time out and it has gone over in seven of its last eight games and now we are presented with some good value on the total against one of the better defense in the league. Portland is 26-12 to the under in its last 38 home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and it falls into a situation where we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games. This situation is 78-42 (65 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (813) Minnesota Timberwolves/(814) Portland Trailblazers |
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11-30-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
Tampa Bay lost in Chicago last week and it now heads home trying to become the final team in the league to win at home as it is 0-5. The Buccaneers have been playing pretty good of late even though the record may not show it as despite being 1-3 in their last four games, the Buccaneers have outgained all four of those opponents. Three of those were no the road and while winless at home, Tampa Bay has lost three of the five home games by one possession including one in overtime. The Bengals have a half-game lead in the AFC North following two straight wins, both of which came on the road so this is their third straight road contest with Pittsburgh on deck, putting them in an awful spot this week. Cincinnati was getting three points at Houston and is now the betting favorite and a big public favorite as well. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage below .250 after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. The Buccaneers can easily take this one outright but we will gladly accept the points and even better, a spread that is above a key number. 10* (462) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-30-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 44 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
While we like Tampa Bay to win its first home game of the season, we like it getting done in a high scoring game. Again, this is the Bengals third straight road game and that can have a negative impact on the defense which is what happened to the Buccaneers earlier in the season when playing their third straight road game. Additionally, we are getting value based on the recent history of both sides as Cincinnati has gone under in three straight games while Tampa Bay has gone under in five straight games. The Buccaneers offense has been pretty bad for the most part but this is one of those games where they can bust out, similar to what Cleveland did in Atlanta last week. The over is 3-1-1 in the Bengals last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the over is 4-1 in the Buccaneers last five games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati also have a fantastic situation favoring a high scoring games as we play the over involving a team after going under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Going against the recent runs gives us the contrarian angles and also helps us with the number. 10* Over (461) Cincinnati Bengals/(462) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-30-14 | New Orleans Saints +5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 50 h 6 m | Show |
New Orleans is arguably the most disappointing team in the league as it is 4-7 but because of the poor play of the entire division, it is still tied for first place. The Saints are still on the positive side in scoring differential and they have been outgained only three times all season while overall, they are outgaining opponents by 56.5 ppg,. The reason the record is so bad is because of turnovers as they have won the turnover differential only once all season. They don't have to worry much here though as the Steelers have been nearly as bad in that department as they have won the turnover battle only four times. Pittsburgh is just a half-game out in the AFC North so this game is big for them too but this line is inflated due to the three recent losses for the Saints, all coming at home, and their known struggles on the road. Despite a 1-4 record on the road, three of those losses have been by three points or less. The Steelers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games against losing teams while New Orleans is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg. While this is considered a must win for both sides, the Steelers have Cincinnati on deck next week presenting the possibility of a divisional lookahead game. 10* (465) New Orleans Saints |
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11-29-14 | Calgary Flames v. Arizona Coyotes -115 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
We got burnt with Arizona on Tuesday as it blew a 3-0 first period lead against Colorado and eventually lost in overtime. That was the second straight one goal loss for the Coyotes and going back, they have now dropped four straight games at home after a 4-2 start on home ice. Tonight presents a great opportunity to get back into the win column as Arizona is desperate for a victory and also is playing with revenge following a 5-3 loss in Calgary two weeks ago. Calgary is in fifth place in the Western Conference, definitely one of the bigger surprises of the early season. The Flames won their last game in San Jose 2-0 on Wednesday to improve to 8-5 on the road but this is a series that has been dominated by the home team as the host has won 10 straight meetings and 17 of the last 21. Calgary coach Bob Hartley stated Karri Ramo will make his second straight start after the last shutout but he has been average this season with a 2.54 GAA and .911 save percentage and he has allowed three goals or more in four of his eight starts. On the other side, Arizona goalie Mike Smith has been struggling but at home against Calgary, he is 4-1-0 with a 1.59 GAA. 10* (22) Arizona Coyotes |
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11-29-14 | Houston Rockets +2 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Dwight Howard who has missed five straight games with a knee injury and he is questionable again tonight. The Rockets got pounded at home last night against the Clippers which was just their fourth loss of the season but I expect a rebound tonight, with or without Howard. Houston is 5-1 on the road with the five-game winning streak snapped at Memphis in its last game on the highway. The Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. The Bucks continue to be a pleasant surprise in the league as they are 10-7 and are just a half-game behind the Bulls in the Central Division. Milwaukee has won three straight games including a 16-point win at Detroit last night and while the run has been solid, playing the easiest schedule in the NBA has helped. The Bucks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and fall into a negative angle as we play against home underdogs coming off two or more consecutive road wins. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (509) Houston Rockets |
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11-29-14 | George Washington +3 v. Seton Hall | Top | 54-58 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Seton Hall is off to a perfect 4-0 start and it has covered all four of those games so the public is lining up behind the Pirates on Saturday laying the short number. It is short for a reason however. They have covered their last three games on a neutral floor but a couple of those could have gone the other way as the Pirates won against the spread by 1.5 points and 1 point in two of those games. This is the biggest test of the young season as George Washington is coming off a 24-win NCAA Tournament campaign and is projected to return to the Big Dance as it is returning a ton from last season. Four starters are back and the Colonials improved to 3-1 on the season with a 91-66 rout of Longwood on Wednesday. Seven players are averaging at least 6.8 ppg so balance is also a big asset and this is a team that can quietly make some noise because of the lack of a big name. Seton Hall is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 home games against teams outscoring their opponents by four or more ppg while going 8-21 ATS in its last 29 home games after a win by six points or less. 10* (521) George Washington Colonials |
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11-29-14 | UAB -4 v. Southern Miss | Top | 45-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 39 m | Show |
Playing road favorites is meant for only a few certain spots and this is one of those UAB is coming off two straight losses at home but those were against Louisiana Tech and Marshall who are the leaders of their respective divisions in C-USA. The Blazers came into that two-game stretch with a 5-4 record so now sitting at 5-6, this is a must win to gain bowl eligibility. UAB has a couple of road wins this season so it can no doubt win on the highway and not only does it need this game for the postseason but the Blazers will be out for revenge after last season's embarrassment. Southern Mississippi was 0-11 with nine of its previous 10 losses coming by double-digits when it traveled to UAB and destroyed the Blazers 62-27 as more than a two-touchdown underdog. There wasn't as much on the line then for UAB which makes this one extra strong. The Golden Eagles have three wins this season which is two more than the last two seasons combined so this is an improved team but they enter this game at the wrong time against the wrong team. Additionally, the Blazers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (379) UAB Blazers |
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11-29-14 | North Texas v. Texas-San Antonio -4.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 72 h 9 m | Show |
Arguably the most surprisingly bad season in college football this season can be given to Texas-San Antonio. The roadrunner defeated Houston in their opener and then played Arizona tough before everything fell apart. What makes it so surprising is the fact that this was the most experienced team in the country coming into the season and they were a preseason favorite to win the C-USA West Division but now at 3-8, this is the final game for an incredible 19 senior starters and you know they all want to go out winners. The good news is that they are playing an opponent that has been nearly as bad as North Texas will not be going bowling either as it is 4-7 and coming off a rare win. The Mean Green are 0-5 on the road this season and they have not covered any of those games, losing by 18, 20, 35, 25 and 31 points. UTSA has been favored in its last four home games and while it has failed to cover, this is the lowest spread it has had to lay down. Overall, the Roadrunner have failed to cover their last four games which adds up to the value play here. We play against road teams that are +/- 0.6 yppl going up against teams that are being outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (426) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners |
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11-29-14 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech -7 | Top | 31-76 | Win | 100 | 72 h 7 m | Show |
We played on Rice last Friday and won as it took care of UTEP and that was more of a play against the Miners which had covered five straight games and had not defeated one team with a winning record as five wins came against teams 3-7 or worse and the best win came against 4-6 Old Dominion. Now the Owls hit the road with a lot on the line as the C-USA West Division is up for grabs. Rice is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games so we are getting value with the number because of that. Rice is 3-3 on the road with wins coming against teams no better than 4-8. Louisiana Tech could have wrapped up the division last week but lost at Old Dominion in overtime so this is an angry bunch ready to take out some frustrations on the Owls, a team the Bulldogs were hammered by last season 52-14. Louisiana Tech is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games against teams with a winning record and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games coming off a loss as a favorite. Rice meanwhile is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 road games after having won five or six out of its last seven games. 10* (362) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
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11-28-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Charlotte Hornets +9 | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
We played on Charlotte on Wednesday and lost as it fell to Portland but we will back the Hornets again tonight in a very similar spot. They were in that game against the Blazers throughout and had a 14-point lead at one point but the difference ended up being three-pointers as Portland scored seven more than Charlotte. The Hornets have now dropped seven straight games while going 0-5-2 ATS in those games and now they are getting an even bigger number. It is due to their streak as well as the fact that Golden St. has won seven straight games while covering five of its last six. This is the best start in franchise history and now the Warriors are paying for it. The first meeting did not go well for Charlotte as it lost at Golden St. by 25 points and being less than two weeks ago, they haven't forgotten so they will be out for payback in addition to stopping their losing skid. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Also, we play against road teams allowing 41 percent shooting or better, after three straight games of allowing 42 percent or better. This situation is 74-34 ATS (68.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (704) Charlotte Hornets |
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11-28-14 | Boise State +6.5 v. NC State | Top | 54-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Last season was supposed to be a special one for Boise St. as it was coming off an NCAA Tournament appearance and was returning all five starters. Instead, the Broncos could never get anything going, finished 21-13 and didn't make the Big Dance while declining all other postseason tournaments. That was a statement and the Broncos are poised to make noise this year as they bring a lot back. With four wins and their lone loss coming to No. 2 Wisconsin, the Broncos have an RPI in the top 30 and this is a big game to pick up a quality win. NC State is off to a 5-0 start but hasn't been overly tested yet. The Wolfpack defeated Richmond last time out which was their toughest opponent so far but now they are playing a better team and are actually favored by more. NC State has a great backcourt and will have an edge in that department on a lot of nights but that isn't the case tonight. Senior guards Anthony Drmic and Derrick Marks are the Broncos top offensive options, averaging a combined 32.4 ppg. The depth is also a big edge for Boise St. as 14 Broncos have played in the first halves of games this season and the team has played 90 different combinations of players. 10* (731) Boise St. Broncos |
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11-28-14 | NY Islanders v. Washington Capitals -110 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
The Islanders are the hottest team in the NHL as they have won five straight games but that triggers a play against especially when the last two have come in extra time at home and now it is travel time. New York has won 10 of its last 11 games so it has been playing well for a while now but the streak comes to an end tonight as the Capitals will be playing with some quick revenge as they were the victims of that latest close win for the Islanders as Washington lost 3-2 in overtime on Wednesday. That was the second straight loss for the Capitals which also lost at home against Buffalo prior to that and that was definitely an ugly loss they want back. The Islanders are 0-4 in their last four games in the second game of a home-and-home situation while the Capitals are 5-1 in their last six games in the second game of a home-and-home situation. Additionally, we play against road teams against the money line having won eight or more of their last 10 games, tired team, playing their 4th game in seven days. This situation is 104-60 (63.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (56) Washington Capitals |
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11-28-14 | Stanford v. UCLA -5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 44 m | Show |
It has been a very disappointing season for Stanford as after winning at least 11 games in each of the last four years, the Cardinal are just 6-5 heading into their regular season finale. To their credit, they have lost some close games, three by a field goal in fact, but two of those came at home and on the highway, they are just 2-3. While they are bowl eligible, they would certainly like to get to seven wins but there is a lot more on the line for UCLA which is peaking at the right time. The Bruins have won five straight games and while a couple of those were close, they have outgained opponents by an average of 142 ypg and on the season, UCLA has been outgained only twice all season. Because the Bruins have already defeated Arizona and Arizona St., a win here and they clinch the Pac 12 South to earn a trip to the Pac 12 Championship. Stanford is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a win by 17 or more points while UCLA is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (338) UCLA Bruins |
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11-28-14 | Navy v. South Alabama +10 | Top | 42-40 | Win | 100 | 51 h 13 m | Show |
After Navy's destruction of Georgia Southern two weeks ago, it because one win away from bowl eligibility with this game and the annual game against Army remaining. The Midshipmen have been all over the place this season and look nothing like the Navy team we have seen over the last few years. In addition, this is a tough scheduling spot as this is their first true road game since October 4th, a span of nearly two months. South Alabama is already bowl eligible with six wins but going to a bowl is no guarantee so getting to seven wins is a must. The Jaguars are getting a ton of points here and a lot of that is due to their recent run of six straight non-covers and those are streaks we like to buck especially when asking an average team to cover close to double-digits. South Alabama would also like to get some payback from its 42-14 loss at Navy a season ago. We play against road favorites averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (334) South Alabama Jaguars |
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11-28-14 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Western Michigan | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
We Lost with going against Western Michigan last week as it went on the road and defeated Central Michigan to keep the logjam in place in the MAC West. The Broncos are tied with Toledo and Northern Illinois at 6-1 with a berth in the MAC Championship on the line this week. While Western Michigan has the edge of playing at home, this line is not where it should be as these teams are pretty equal as far as power rankings go so there is an inflation based on the fact that the Broncos have covered an insane 10 straight games. They have won six straight games which betters North Illinois' winning streak by just one. The Huskies have won five straight with three of those coming on the road and at 5-1 on the highway, winning away from home is no problem. This has been a series the Huskies have dominated and even though the Broncos are vastly improved, a 43-point line shift from last year's meeting is simply too much. Northern Illinois is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. 10* (319) Northern Illinois Huskies |
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11-27-14 | UCLA v. North Carolina -2 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
North Carolina was clearly outplayed yesterday but I do not expect that to take place again tonight. The Tar Heels rolled in their first three games of the season but it was the opposite against Butler and because of one factor, they were outhustled. While North Carolina held the Bulldogs to 30.6 percent shooting, they were outrebounded 57-40, including 29-14 on the offensive glass. That type of discrepancy has been made public everywhere and the players are not going to let that happen again. UCLA lost to Oklahoma as the Sooners went on a big second half run to pull away and it may take some time for the Bruins to come together as they lost a lot from last season and it showed on Wednesday. They are catching the Tar Heels at the wrong time and to go along with that, they have dropped six straight and 10 of their last 11 non-conference games against Top 25 foes on neutral sites. Here, we play on favorites with two or more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (518) North Carolina Tar Heels |
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11-27-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 54.5 | Top | 33-10 | Win | 100 | 73 h 0 m | Show |
The Eagles and Cowboys were both involved in high scoring games this past Sunday and we are getting some excellent value in the total because of it. It was the fourth straight over for Philadelphia as the offense put up the second most amount of points this season with both of those high output games coming at home. The Eagles are averaging 36.7 ppg at home which is the second most in the league but that average drops to 24.4 ppg on the road which is a significant dropoff. Dallas' defense has been pretty consistent both on the road and at home but and they have allowed more than 21 points at home only twice. The Cowboys have gone over the total in two straight games but those were away from home where they have gone over in three straight games. Both teams fall into great situations. First, we play the under involving home teams after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 35-12 (74.5 percent) to the under since 1983. Second, we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. This situation is 24-6 (80 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (307) Philadelphia Eagles/(308) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-27-14 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions OVER 47 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 0 m | Show |
The Lions return home following a two-game roadtrip where they lost both games while scoring a grand total of 15 points. They have now gone under the total in four straight games and nine of their last 10 but Thursday presents a great opportunity for a high scoring game based on situation and opponent. Detroit is coking off its worst defensive performance of the season as it allowed 34 points and 439 total yards against the Patriots. Chicago is also coming off a low scoring game, its second straight under but those games were both at home. The Bears have gone over the total in five of their six road games this season while allowing 55 and 51 points in their two most recent road outings. That should certainly help a Detroit offense that is stuck in neutral to move forward starting on Thursday. The Bears have gone over the total in their last seven road games following one or more consecutive wins and Detroit has a great situational angle on its side. We play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that are between + and - 3 ppg in scoring differential going up against teams that are between -3 and -7 ppg in scoring differential, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 62-28 (68.9 percent)to the over since 1983. 10* Over (305) Chicago Bears/(306) Detroit Lions |
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11-26-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 | Top | 103-86 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
This line came out late due to injuries and Minnesota is on a great spot here. Milwaukee is coming off a victory at home last night against Detroit to snap a two-game skid and get back over .500 overall on the season. It has been a busy run for the Bucks as this game tonight is their sixth game in nine nights and after Thanksgiving, they have a three-in-four situation coming up. This is already their sixth back-to-back set of the season and they have dropped three of the first five games playing with no rest. Last season, it took Milwaukee until January 22nd to notch its eighth win so clearly things are going right for the Bucks this season. The Bucks are 5-2 at home but just 3-5 on the road. Minnesota is struggling with a 1-7 run while covering just that one game as well. The Timberwolves have been plagued with injuries but younger players continue to progress, namely Andrew Wiggins who is coming off his best game as a pro. Also, the schedule hasn't helped much as they have played the seventh toughest schedule in the NBA, going 0-8 against the top 16 and 3-1 against every other team and the latter is where the Bucks fall. 10* (716) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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11-26-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Charlotte Hornets +6.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
There are some different names at the top of the NBA divisions with Toronto, Memphis and Golden St. all leading and possessing double-digit wins. We can also add Portland to that list as the Blazers already have a four-game lead in the Northwest Division thanks to an eight-game winning streak but we will be going against that tonight. Portland returns home after this mini three-game roadtrip so it will be looking ahead to spending the holiday at home and then face off against Memphis on Friday. Charlotte meanwhile has been going the opposite way as it has lost six straight games while failing to cover any of those. The Hornets were off to a respectable 4-5 start prior to this but they are in a great spot tonight to bust out of the slump. They are 2-0 ATS this season as a single-digit underdog of more than six points while going 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss of more than 10 points. Additionally, we play on home underdogs after failing to cover four of their last five games against the spread going up against an opponent having covered six or seven of their last eight games against the spread. This situation is 105-61 ATS (63.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (708) Charlotte Hornets |
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11-26-14 | Davidson +2 v. Central Florida | Top | 95-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Davidson comes into this game following a loss against North Carolina on Saturday as the Tar Heels took advantage of some poor shooting from the Wildcats. I expect them to bounce back here and while this is their first true road game of the season, the North Carolina game was on a neutral floor and tonight's venue is far from intimidating. Davidson returns nine letterwinners from last year's squad, including all-conference selections Tyler Kalinoski, Brian Sullivan and Jack Gibbs. This is an experienced team while the Knights are not. They bring back just two players, Kasey Wilson (22 starts) and Staphon Blair (18 starts), who spent most of last year in the starting lineup and Central Florida will be faced with the challenge of making up for the loss of its top three scorers from a year ago, all of which averaged double-digits in scoring. The Knights are off to a 3-0 start but the two games against Division I opponents, Stetson and South Carolina-Upstate, were decided by single digits and Davidson is far superior than those two teams. As mentioned, this is not a great home court edge for the Knights as last season they went just 2-9 ATS and with so many new faces and their first test of this year tonight, it will be a real challenge. 10* (731) Davidson Wildcats |
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11-25-14 | Golden State Warriors -5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
This game was off the board due to injuries on both sides and Golden St. opened as the expected road favorite late Tuesday morning. Golden St. is off to its best start in franchise history and it is currently riding a five-game winning streak to move to 10-2 on the season. The Warriors have been solid both at home and on the road with identical 5-1 records and they have played a decent schedule, ranking 14th hardest in the NBA. While they are hit with injuries, the depth of this team keeps it going. Miami has won two straight and will be without Dwyane Wade again for the seventh straight game and that is significant in this matchup. The Heat have been getting it done with defense but when you look at those solid defensive efforts, they have come against some very poor offenses and not one with the firepower of Golden St. The Warriors have one of the best early season angles on its side as we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a home win by three points or less, in November games. This situation is 24-1 ATS (96 percent) since 1996. 10* (503) Golden St. Warriors |
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11-25-14 | Arkansas v. SMU -5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
This is the second of seven straight home games for SMU and it cannot afford to let any of these go by without winning. This is the toughest one of the bunch and after losing to Gonzaga and Indiana, the Mustangs need a quality name win on the slate. They are 0-3 ATS on the season following a closer than expected win over Eastern Washington and they will be motivated to not only put together a great game start to finish but also get some payback from losing in Arkansas by 11 points a year ago. The Razorbacks are off to a 3-0 start but they have played no one and this is their first trip on the highway this season. That is bad enough but going back, Arkansas is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games following a double-digit win. Meanwhile, SMU is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after failing to cover the spread in three of their last four games and fall into a great situation where we play against road teams as an underdog or pickem that are averaging 84 or more ppg on the season, after two straight wins by 20 points or more. This situation is 54-25 ATS (68.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (524) SMU Mustangs |
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11-25-14 | Oregon v. VCU -5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
VCU got hammered last night against Villanova by 24 points as it was unable to apply the typical pressure and cause its normal havoc. The Rams managed only three steals thus creating only nine turnovers and those numbers are much higher than that on a normal night and that is what I an expecting tonight. They faced a tough defense themselves and shot only 37.3 percent, including 2-of-17 from behind the arc, and got outscored 45-23 in the second half. Oregon played a much better game against Michigan as it lost by seven points but it was in a much more favorable matchup and that won't be the case tonight. The Ducks shot just 39 percent from the floor and of the eight players that saw playing time, half of those are freshmen and handling the VCU pressure could be next to impossible as two players from the starting backcourt are freshmen. The Rams fell to 16-17 under Shaka Smart when forcing 12 turnovers or fewer compared to 124-30 when their opponent has at least 13 so we know what the magic number needs to be tonight. Oregon has now lost seven straight regular-season games against Top 25 opponents on neutral floors. 10* (568) VCU Rams |
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11-25-14 | Winnipeg Jets v. Columbus Blue Jackets +100 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Columbus has dropped three straight games following a mini two-game winning streak which came on the heels of a nine-game losing skid. Obviously the Blue Jackets have not been playing very well but it does add to the value here as a home underdog against a team that is not playing much better at all. The Jets have dropped two straight games, four of their last five and six of their last nine. Jets goalie Ondrej Pavelec has struggled for Winnipeg over his last five starts, taking the loss in four and being pulled in the other while posting a 3.33 GAA. He's never beaten the Blue Jackets, losing all five starts with a 3.04 GAA. Columbus has won six of the last seven meetings and is 16-5 against the money line in its last 21 home games after three straight games with 8+ less shots on goal than opponents. Meanwhile, the Jets are 5-11 in their last 16 games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (2) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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11-25-14 | Ohio -2 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Ohio enters this game with a 5-6 record so it needs a win to become bowl eligible for the sixty straight season and while a bowl game is no guarantee, the Bobcats have to win and hope. Avoiding a sub-.500 season and a loss to the hated RedHawks certainly isn't a bad prize either for the Bobcats. One look at the schedule shows the season it has been as Ohio is 0-5 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 against everyone else. That lone loss was against a very good Kentucky team and the Bobcats are 3-0 against teams in the MAC East that they are either tied with or are below them. It has been an improved season for Miami as it has won twice following a 21-game losing skid and some of the losses this year were close ones but it will be tough for the RedHawks to pull this one out. Ohio, faced with rebuilding an offense in 2014, lost starting quarterback Derrius Vick for five games in the middle of the year because of injury. But his return, and the emergence of freshman running back A.J. Ouellette have provided the offense with some stability in recent weeks. With Ouellette and Vick providing a 1-2 rushing punch in the backfield, the Bobcats could find success against a Miami defense that ranks 11th in the MAC in points allowed (32.5) and rushing yards allowed (201.8) per game. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record while the Redhawks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Look for Ohio to pull away here and at least have a chance at playing in another bowl game. 10* (301) Ohio Bobcats |
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11-24-14 | BYU v. San Diego State -3 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This used to be one of the best MWC rivalries before BYU left the conference but tonight presents a great opportunity to become the best game in the opening round of the Maui Invitational. This game will be the first for both teams playing away from home and the neutral floor edge goes to the better defensive team in this case. San Diego St. is allowing 44.7 ppg on 31.7 percent shooting, and its opponents, which include No. 25 Utah, have missed 42 of 51 three-point attempts. The Cougars have a high powered offense but they have played no one so the jury is still out on how good it is especially when facing one of the best defenses in the country. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that allowed 64 or fewer ppg last season, after allowing 60 points or less three straight games. This situation is 45-15 (75 percent) since 1997. 10* (748) San Diego State Aztecs |
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11-24-14 | Alabama v. Iowa State -6 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Iowa St. and Alabama come in with unblemished records for this first round game of the CBE Classic from Kansas City. The Cyclones return to the Sprint Center for the first time since winning the Big 12 Championship against Baylor and are stacked again this season. Iowa St. which has got just nine points from its bench in the first two games, will have its depth bolstered with Abdel Nader and Matt Thomas available for the first time this season. Both players will be eligible to return for the Alabama game after missing the exhibition game and the first two games of the regular season due to a violation of team rules. Alabama is 3-0 in facing a very weak schedule and the Tide have dropped 17 straight games against ranked opponents. The Cyclones look to extend a 10-game winning streak against unranked opponents at neutral sites. 10* (768) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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11-24-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints -2.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
The NFC South continued its disappointing season Sunday with first place Atlanta losing at home against Cleveland which put New Orleans back on the top spot by a half-game despite being two games under .500. The Saints have lost two straight games at home which is certainly a rarity and they have never lost three straight home games under head coach Sean Payton. If there is any team that can bounce back from that, it is the Saints as they love the spotlight by winning 14 straight primetime games at home including the playoffs by close to 20 ppg. In his last six Monday Night Football games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, all victories, Saints quarterback Drew Brees has completed nearly 75 percent of his passes and thrown 23 touchdowns with just two interceptions. The Ravens were off last week which gave them time to heal some injuries but they are still pretty banged up, especially in the secondary which is not a good thing. They are coming off a win over Tennessee and they will need to win to keep pace in the division but Baltimore is just 1-3 in its last four road games with the lone victory coming against Tampa Bay. Despite being just 4-5 over the last nine games, New Orleans has won the yardage battle in seven of those and they are outgaining opponents by 54.6 ypg which is fifth best in the NFL. Teams on three-game homestands can be in good positions depending on the outcome of the first two games and that is the case here as home teams that are coming off consecutive losses at home are 18-5 ATS. 10* (278) New Orleans Saints |
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11-24-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 201 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Portland has won seven straight games and while the offense was good and the defense was bad during the first three games of the streak, it has been a complete flip-flop over the last four games which has seen the under come in all four times. That is giving us some value tonight in a lower that average total. This is the third time Portland has played with no rest and the first two times, the games soared over the total with scores of 226 and 243. Additionally, Portland is 11-2 to the over in its last 13 road games after four or more consecutive wins. The winless Sixers will have their hands full here no doubt but catching the Blazers with no rest is a big edge for the offense that has been horrendous and they should be able to break through. Philadelphia averages over 14 more ppg at home than it does n the road and going back, the Sixers are 24-10 to the over in their last 34 home games coming off a road loss. 10* Over (703) Portland Trailblazers/(704) Philadelphia 76ers |
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11-23-14 | Edmonton Eskimos +6.5 v. Calgary Stampeders | Top | 18-43 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
The two best teams in the CFL square off in the West Division final on Sunday and it has the makings of a great game. Calgary defeated Edmonton in all three meetings this season but two of those game were tight and because of the season sweep, not many will be giving the Eskimos much of a shot here. That includes the linesmakers as they have favored the Stampeders by a touchdown which is 2.5 points higher than the lone regular season matchup that took place in Calgary so we are getting an excellent number here. And Edmonton was without their starting quarterback in that game as Mike Reilly missed both games of the Labour Day doubleheader with an injury. Sitting out all last week with a lower-leg injury, Reilly replaced an ineffective Matt Nichols and closed out the victory over Saskatchewan completing six of eight for 53 yards. Reilly will be starting this week which is a very good thing. Much has been made of the fact the Eskimos lost all three games to Calgary this year and have an 10-game losing streak against the Stampeders but I am not buying it as six of those games were decided by a touchdown or less. On the season, Edmonton has outgained opponents by 75.5 ypg while Calgary has outgained opponents by just 26.3 ypg so while the Stampeders are considered the much better team, it is not a big gap. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after having won three out of their last four games, in November games. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. 10* (293) Edmonton Eskimos |
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11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 71 h 10 m | Show |
While the term 'must win' gets thrown around a lot in the NFL circles, that phrase holds true for Seattle this coming Sunday. Following their loss at Kansas City last week, Seattle is just 3-3 over its last six games to fall to 6-4 on the season which is three games behind Arizona in the NFC West. A loss here and their chances of a divisional title are gone and even a Wild Card spot would be dim. The Seahawks face the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL but they still have five divisional games remaining so they can help control their own density. Seattle has not forgotten about Arizona coming in here last year and winning. The Cardinals are on a six-game winning streak and have covered all of those games as well so we are getting a lot of value based on that and their overall 9-1 record. They defeated Detroit last week with Drew Stanton starting at quarterback but now on the road in the toughest environment in football will cause him some struggles. We have two awesome situations on our side. First, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 70 and 95 ypg rushing going up against teams allowing between 70 and 95 ypg rushing. This situation is 33-7 ATS (82.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play against road teams coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 55-24 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Seattle is 8-0 ATS its last eight games as a home favorite of seven points or less. 10* (268) Seattle Seahawks *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR* |
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11-23-14 | St. Louis Rams v. San Diego Chargers -4.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 8 m | Show |
The Chargers were able to snap their three-game losing streak last week against Oakland but they did not look particularly good in doing so. They won by just a touchdown and outgained Oakland by only 67 total yards and the non-cover made it five straight losses against the number. That does nothing but help us this week as San Diego is laying a shorter than expected number. The Chargers are 6-4 but because of the Denver loss last week, they are just a game out in the AFC West. That Broncos loss came compliments of St. Louis who has put together some good games against some very good teams but the problem is that the Rams cannot put together a winning streak. They have lost all three games following their previous wins this season and losing all three against the number as well. The last two follow up games have been on the road and they lost by 27 and 17 points and despite a 3-2 record over the last five games, the Rams were outgained in all five of those contests. Going back, the Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win while going 16-35 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning home record. San Diego is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game and has a great situation in its side as we play against road underdogs or pickems that are coming off a win by 14 or more points as a home underdog. This situation is 74-39 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (270) San Diego Chargers *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR* |
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11-23-14 | Detroit Lions +7.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 9-34 | Loss | -115 | 68 h 5 m | Show |
The Lions lost a tough one in Arizona last Sunday as they lost by eight points, snapping their four-game winning streak. While it is well known they are not a great outdoor team, the value here is too good to pass up especially when they possess the best defense in the NFL. Detroit closed as a one-point favorite in Arizona and now it is a touchdown underdog so the linesmakers are saying there is an eight-point differential between the Cardinals and Patriots and that is simply not the case. A big reason that the line is as big as it is here is due to the recent play of the Patriots. They have won six straight games since that debacle in Kansas City, covering five of those, and of those six games, three were high profile games including the last two against Denver and Indianapolis and that is surely what the public remembers, thus the need for a line adjustment higher than it should be. The Lions fall into two solid angles here. First, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a yppl differential of +/- 0.4, after outgaining opponent by 150 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging 27 or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (255) Detroit Lions *ENFORCER* |
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11-23-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings +10 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
The Vikings were unable to continue their winning streak after their bye week as it came to an end in Chicago at two games. They head back home to take on Green Bay and will be out to seek some revenge from their 42-10 beatdown earlier this season. Minnesota is 2-2 at home and this is the start of a three-game homestand which is typically a good scenario for teams and I think that will be the case for Minnesota despite playing one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Packers are coming off dominating performances in consecutive weeks against the Bears and Eagles as they scored 55 and 53 points respectively. The game against Chicago was over before it started but the game last week was not nearly as bad as the score indicated. Green Bay scored three touchdowns via defense and special teams and no team is going to be able to recover from that. It is obviously imperative for the Vikings to take care of the ball and they have been able to do so of late as they have just three turnovers in their last four games compared to 10 turnovers in their first six games. Minnesota falls into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg in the second half of the season. 10* (258) Minnesota Vikings *ULTIMATE UNDERDOG* |
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11-23-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 47 | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 2 m | Show |
We are going with a great probability dynamic here as we are catching two teams on current totals streaks that are very uncommon. With the days of scoring in the NFL at an all time high, it is rare to find two teams involved in so many low scoring games but that is the case here with the Browns and Falcons. Cleveland has gone under the total in six straight games while Atlanta has gone under the total in six straight games as well. The most shocking thing about this is the overall body of work of the two sides. Atlanta is ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense and are 10th in total offense which would normally lead to high scoring games which obviously has not been the case. Cleveland's splits are not as extreme but they are still shaded the same way as the Browns defense is ranked 22nd in the NFL while their offense is ranked 14th. The reasoning for the lower scores has been turnovers which has taken away scoring chances on offense and prevented them on defense. This is a big anomaly and one that we can take advantage of when putting the two together as we are getting value in the number based on the current totals runs. Atlanta is much higher scoring team at home and this is their first home games since October 12th as they have played three road games as well as a game in London. Cleveland has had two low scoring road games during the run but prior to that, the first two road games went over with scores of 57 points in each. We get back to that this week. 10* Over (251) Cleveland Browns/(252) Atlanta Falcons *TOTAL OF THE MONTH* |
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11-22-14 | Boise State v. Wyoming +12.5 | Top | 63-14 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 42 m | Show |
It has been a struggle for Wyoming as it is 4-6 on the season and will have to win out against Boise St. and New Mexico to become bowl eligible. The Cowboys looked great in a victory against Fresno St. two games back but gave it back at home against Utah St. in a 20-3 loss but they did outgain the Aggies in that one. Wyoming is coming off a bye week which is big advantage here especially getting the opportunity to remain home for the duration between the two games. This is a great time slot for the Cowboys as they can play a night game and it was picked up by ESPN2 which will make the atmosphere even better. Boise St. is on a five-game winning streak but it has covered only two of those games and is on a two-game cover skid after not being able to defeat New Mexico or San Diego St. by significant amounts. Boise St. sits in a three-way tie fir first place in the MWC East Division and its game against Utah St. at home next Saturday will play into who becomes the champion. Here, we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the second half of the season that are off one or more straight overs and averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 25-2 ATS (92.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (168) Wyoming Cowboys *LATE NIGHT BAILOUT* |
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11-22-14 | Washington Wizards v. Milwaukee Bucks +3 | Top | 111-100 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The Wizards are coming off a big winner last night against Cleveland as they got away with scoring just 11 points in the final quarter as their lead was big enough and the Cavaliers could not get anything going on offense. They now head out on the road where they are just 3-2 with all three of those wins coming against teams with a losing record and the two losses coming against teams with a .500 or better record. While it may seem shocking, the Bucks fall into that latter category as it is off to a 7-6 start which is pretty impressive considering the Bucks did not win their seventh game last season until December 31st, a span of 31 games. What isn't impressive was the loss last night as they were blown out by Toronto by 41 points but that was on the road and Milwaukee is 4-1 at home with the lone loss coming against Chicago. The Bucks will also be out for some revenge after opening the month with an 11-point loss in Washington in a game they never led. This season, the Bucks are a perfect 5-0 ATS coming off a loss and going back to last season, they are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS loss. Washington meanwhile is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win. 10* (716) Milwaukee Bucks |
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11-22-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 | Top | 110-93 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Cleveland is off to a very pedestrian 5-6 start which isn't a total surprise considering the overhauled roster but I expect good things tonight. The talent of the team is too strong and because of the rough start, we are starting to see some value which was not the case early in the season. The Cavaliers are coming off a loss in Washington last night by 13 points, their third straight loss, as they shot just 36 percent from the floor and the 78 points was a season low. The fans must be getting restless as Cleveland has won only two of its five home games and now it faces the best team in the Eastern Conference. Toronto is off to a 10-2 start and has won three straight games including a 41-point beatdown of Milwaukee last night. Now the Raptors hit the road, which is hard in itself in this league, but this road game is the first since November 5th as Toronto has played seven straight home games and its nine home games overall are tied for the most in the NBA. Because of this, it comes as no surprise that the Raptors have played the easiest schedule in the NBA and they have gone 8-0 against the bottom half of the league while going just 2-2 against the top half. 10* (706) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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11-22-14 | San Jose State v. Cal State Fullerton -7 | Top | 66-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Cal State Fullerton is off to a 0-2 start on the season with both losses coming on the road so Saturday marks its home opener. In front of their home crowd for the first time this year, the Titans should be energized and ready to make a statement and earn their first win before hitting the road for five more games and they won't have another home game until December 6th. Cal State Fullerton has won 10 consecutive home openers and there will be some added motivation Saturday as the Titans will be out to avenge a loss from last season against San Jose St. where they went down by 22 points. The Spartans are also coming off a loss on Wednesday and it wasn't pretty as San Jose State trailed Pepperdine by four points with 17 minutes left in the second half before having a scoring drought that last nearly 10 minutes. The Waves went on a 20-5 run during that time and went on to win 63-44. This is the first road game of the season for the Spartans and they were dreadful on the highway a season ago, going 3-15. San Jose St. is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after scoring 55 or fewer points while going 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a double-digit home loss. 10* (732) Cal State Fullerton Titans |
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11-22-14 | Wisconsin v. Iowa +10 | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 59 m | Show |
Iowa has quietly put together a very solid season as it is 7-3 with two of those losses coming by a combined 10 points. The Hawkeyes put up a stinker against Minnesota two games back but they bounced back with a win last time out at Illinois and are back home after that two-game roadtrip where they are 4-1 on the season. They have had this game circled for over a year as last season Wisconsin came in and won 28-9 so they will be out for revenge. Wisconsin has lost a couple close games this season as well and since the last one at Northwestern, they have reeled off five straight wins, covering the last four. That is giving us a lot of value here and the fact that the Badgers are favored by more than what they were favored at Northwestern is a huge surprise. Wisconsin brings in a potent rushing attack but Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz has been a master when it comes to this as under him, the Hawkeyes are 22-3 ATS versus teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing ypc. Additionally, we play against road favorites with an excellent rushing defense allowing 100 or less rushing ypg, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing ypc in two straight games. This situation is 47-17 ATS (73.4 percent) since 1992. Iowa has a great shot at this one outright so we will gladly jump on the generous points given to us. 10* (158) Iowa Hawkeyes *GAME OF THE YEAR* |
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11-22-14 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette -9.5 | Top | 35-16 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 27 m | Show |
We played against Appalachian St. last Saturday and lost but we won't hesitate going against the Mountaineers again here as we are getting a great line. They came to play last week as they outgained Arkansas St. by 235 yards for their fourth straight victory to improve to .500 on the season. That winning streak is no doubt helping us here as they were getting four and half points more last week than this week despite playing a team that is undefeated in the Sun Belt Conference. Louisiana is 6-0 in the conference following a win over rival UL-Monroe which was its sixth straight victory after opening the season 1-3. People were writing off the Cajuns after that slow start but they are clearly playing their best football of the year at the right time. They are two wins away from securing back-to-back conference championships and would get the automatic bid even if Georgia Southern stays undefeated since they are on probation coming up from the FCS. They are at 3-8 Troy next Saturday which makes this the final home game for 16 seniors. We play against road underdogs that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win against a conference rival. This situation is 84-38 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (186) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns *ENFORCER* |
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11-22-14 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -1 | Top | 32-20 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 29 m | Show |
Western Michigan is riding the nation's longest winning streak against the number as it has covered nine straight games after losing the cover in its opening game against Purdue by just a point and a half. The Broncos have won five straight games and they sit in a three-way tie for first place in the MAC West with Northern Illinois and Toledo. While it is a big game, it is not a must win though as they play the Huskies as home next Friday which could decide the division champion. Central Michigan is on a three-game winning streak following a tough three-point loss against Ball St., a game in which it outgained the Cardinals by 139 yards but lost the turnover battle 5-1. Overall, the seven wins are the most Central Michigan has recorded during the regular season under fifth-year head coach Dan Enos. This could be considered an even bigger game for Central Michigan which is a half-game back in the MAC West and with a win over Northern Illinois already, a victory over the Broncos could put them right in the mix. The Chippewas fall into an excellent situation where we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (150) Central Michigan Chippewas *AFTERNOON DOMINATOR* |
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11-21-14 | UTEP v. Rice -7.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 14 m | Show |
We have been pretty high on UTEP as it has been playing solid of late. The Miners have won four of their last five games including a big win over North Texas last time out to become bowl eligible and more importantly for bettors, they have covered each of those last five games. The problem is however that UTEP has not defeated one team with a winning record as five wins have come against teams 3-7 or worse and the best win came against 4-6 Old Dominion. The last time the Miners faced a team with a winning record resulted in a 55-3 loss to Louisiana Tech back on October 4th. Rice comes in with the same 6-4 record and while its résumé is similar as far as wins and losses go, the Owls have fared much better against the better teams as they are outgaining opponents on average while the Miners are not. Rice had won and covered six straight games before getting blown out by Marshall in its last game but that has been the case for a lot of teams this year. They are at Louisiana Tech in their final game of the season so a win here likely means a 7-5 finish which is definitely needed for better bowl consideration. This number has come down from its opening which is what we wanted knowing that UTEP is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against losing teams while Rice is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a game on the road. 10* (118) Rice Owls *ENFORCER* |
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11-21-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 | Top | 122-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is an ugly play for sure but the fact of the matter is that this line is extremely overadjusted. The Sixers are off to an 0-11 start to the season and the schedule has done it no favors as they have played the fourth toughest schedule in the league with over half of their games coming against the top ten teams in the NBA. While that isn't an excuse for continually losing, that fact that the losses mount up gives us advantage to take a horrible team when the situation is right, similar to the Raiders last night. Phoenix is playing its fourth road game of this six-game roadtrip and following two wins in Boston and Detroit, the urgency won't be very much tonight. Last season, the Suns came in here and won by 11 points as a five-point favorite and now they are favored by double that and not because they have gotten that much better but because the Sixers winless streak is at the forefront and the public continues to go against it. And that is the case again tonight. You will be hard-pressed to find a team that will be trying harder to win than Philadelphia because of everything that is circulating in the media attached to this losing skid. The Sixers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home while the Suns are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, we play on teams after two straight losses by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) Philadelphia 76ers *ENFORCER* |
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11-21-14 | Stanford -7.5 v. UNLV | Top | 89-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
UNLV and Stanford tip off in the first of the two games at the Barclays Center for the first round of the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. Both come in at 2-0 after the first week of the season but those are very different undefeated records. Stanford had little issue with its two opponents Wofford and South Dakota, winning by 15 and 11 points respectively and while tonight presents a step up in class, it isn't that big of a jump. The Rebels are 2-0 with wins over Morehead St. and San Houston St. but they came by a combined three points and both were games they should have won easily. This is a team in transition after going 20-13 a season ago where it failed to make any postseason tournament. UNLV lost its five leading scorers from last season and the only five players that started at least 15 games so chemistry is a huge issue right now and taking on a veteran team is not the ideal spot in its first game away from home. While the recruiting class was fifth in the nation, the Cardinal brought in the 15th ranked recruiting class to help mix in with the three returning senior starters. Stanford falls into two great angles as first, we play against underdogs off two consecutive home wins by five points or less going up against an opponent off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. This situation is 33-6 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1997. Second, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .800 from last season, with three or more starters returning from last year than opponent. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (591) Stanford Cardinal *SLAM DUNK* |
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11-20-14 | Arkansas State -5 v. Texas State | Top | 27-45 | Loss | -106 | 49 h 44 m | Show |
We lost with Arkansas St. last week as the Red Wolves opened a big lead but failed to hold on as they were outgained by 235 total yards. It was their worst effort of the season and I expect a big bounce back here on the road where they have won two of their last three. With no chance to win the Sun Belt Conference any more, a bowl game in no guarantee even if they finish 6-6. Arkansas St. will likely have to go 8-4 and with a sure home win next week against New Mexico St., this has become a really big game. Going back to the road success, the Red Wolves have covered 11 of their last 12 road games after the first month of the season. Texas St. is 5-5 and looking to achieve bowl eligibility but as decent as that record may look, it is impossible to ignore the numbers. The Bobcats have been outgained in seven of nine games against FBS competition and surprisingly, the two games they won the yardage battle, they lost. They have four wins against FBS foes and those have come against teams 2-8, 1-9, 3-7 and 2-8. To their credit, the Bobcats played South Alabama and Georgia Southern tough the last two games but trying to do so against a quality opponent for a third straight game is too much to ask. A big reason to go against Texas St. is the fact that it has covered four straight games and those are the streaks we like to go against when reaching that level. 10* (115) Arkansas St. Red Wolves *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR* |
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11-20-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +8 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
With Kansas City's win over Seattle coupled with the Broncos loss to the Rams, the Chiefs are tied for first place with Denver in the AFC West. It was the fifth straight win and cover fro the Chiefs but you have to wonder how this team keeps winning. They are outgaining opponents by just 2.0 ypg on the season and they have been outgained in three straight games heading into Thursday night. That all leads to them being extremely overvalued this week and making matters worse, they have a home date with the Broncos next week. The Raiders are 0-10, have not won a game since November of last season and have dropped 16 straight games going back to that last victory over Houston. While Oakland does have its own problems, the fact that its last nine games have come against winning teams has not done it any favors. And while there have been blowouts, the Raiders have played a lot of teams tough, justified by their 5-5 record against the number. While there are some notable games left on the schedule, it is safe to say this is their Super Bowl similar to the Titans on Monday night in a nationally televised game. Oakland is 4-1 ATS this season when getting a touchdown or more and playing winless teams in the second half of the season in divisional games has been very lucrative over the last several years. Additionally, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 74-37 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (110) Oakland Raiders |
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11-20-14 | Minnesota Wild v. Philadelphia Flyers +109 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The Flyers are coming off a 2-0 shutout loss last night in New York against the Rangers and head home trying to snap a three-game skid overall. A loss at home to Columbus started the skid but prior to that, Philadelphia had won five straight games at home so I expect the home ice to provide a lift on Thursday. Philadelphia's performance last night led general manager Ron Hextall to chew out the team behind closed doors after the game so the response should be strong after that as well. Minnesota has won two straight games including a rare road win at Dallas which temporarily stalled a 1-6 run on the highway. It hasn't been confirmed for the Flyers yet but goalie Ray Emery will likely get the start and he is 4-1-1 with a respective 2.29 GAA in his six career games against the Wild while Steve Mason, who probably will get the night off, is 2-1-0 with a 1.68 GAA in his last three meetings. The Flyers are 6-1 in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while under head coach Mike Yeo, Minnesota is 5-28 in its last 33 road games against teams averaging three or more gpg and 1-10 in its last 11 road games off a win by one goal over a division rival. 10* (52) Philadelphia Flyers *BREAKAWAY* |
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11-20-14 | Florida Atlantic v. Harvard -16 | Top | 49-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is a decent sized number to be laying for Harvard but it finds itself in a very solid spot tonight. The Crimson are coming off a pretty improbable loss in their last game as they lost to Holy Cross this past Sunday on a neutral floor at the TD Garden. They were double-digit favorites and coming in ranked 25th in the AP Preseason Poll, they allowed the Crusaders to beat a ranked team for the first time since 1977. Now Harvard returns home where it is 32-1 in its last 33 non-conference games while last regular season, it won all four games following a loss. There will be some added motivation for the Crimson as one of their four regular season losses came at Florida Atlantic and it was the worst one of the season as they went down by 15 points. The Owls won their last game which was basically a glorified exhibition against Warner University. That came after losing at Elon in their season opener where they shot just 37.5 percent from the floor. Florida Atlantic is a very young team that has only two seniors that play while featuring five players that are either freshmen or sophomores that see extended playing time. The Owls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 20 points while going 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games after allowing 60 points or less. 10* (708) Harvard Crimson |
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11-19-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Washington Wizards +2.5 | Top | 105-102 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Dallas has won and covered four straight games to improve to 8-3 overall. The Mavericks are 3-2 on the road including wins in the last two games against Charlotte and Utah, both of which they were favored in by four and three points respectively. While Dallas is favored by less tonight than it was on those two games, the question is should it be favored at all? We get the West vs. East matchup and that the Mavericks are from a superior conference but the Wizards are one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and were expected to be. Washington has won three straight games and four of five but it is just 1-4 ATS in those games as it has failed to cover each of those as a favorite but did cover in the lone game as an underdog. Dallas has won eight straight games in this series and the Wizards will be out to end that streak and prove the start is no fluke. While this will be the biggest home test for Washington, it has yet to lose at home and is well rested after having played just two games over the last eight days including no travel. Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle is 7-19 ATS off a road win by 20 points or more and Washington falls into a solid contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs after failing to cover two of their last three games against the spread, playing their third or less game in 10 days. This situation is 68-34 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (502) Washington Wizards *ENFORCER* |
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11-19-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 114-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
We are not a big proponent of laying points on the road in this league but sometimes the situation calls for it and tonight is one of those spots. The Clippers came into the season expected to be contenders in the Western Conference and while there is still a lot of regular season left, they have not gotten off to the start they hoped. They are eighth in the conference following a home loss against Chicago by 16 points which concluded a four-game homestand and a stretch of the first nine games being played in California. For a team not playing up to its standards, getting out of town could be the best remedy. Orlando meanwhile is exceeding expectations as it is 5-7 with three wins over its last four games. The Magic have been kind to backers as they have covered seven straight games including both games played at home. They were favorites in one of those however and the other one took overtime to win. That was against Minnesota where they were getting four points which is basically the same number tonight and that does not line up right. The Clippers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games coming off a favorite loss and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games following a loss. Also, we play on road teams averaging between 98 and 102 ppg against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 100 points or more two straight games. This situation is 73-34 ATS (68.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (505) Los Angeles Clippers *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR* |
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11-19-14 | Siena v. Saint Bonaventure -3 | Top | 73-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
St. Bonaventure cruised in its season opener as it destroyed Dartmouth by 20 points and the Bonnies are in good position to add to that tonight. They enter this season with low expectations but this is one of the deepest and most athletic teams that head coach Mark Schmidt has had here. The Bonnies played without senior center 7-0 Youssou Ndoye, who sat out the game because he played in an impermissible summer league game. Ndoye will return tonight and that is bad news for the Saints which have response for him down low with center Imoh Silas out for the season. Siena is off to a 0-2 start and while losing to UMass is nothing to be upset about, losing at home against Vermont is. That could get this team fired up but should not matter following the last game as the Saints struggled defensively giving up too many easy shots, allowing the Catamounts to shoot 68.4 percent from the floor. This is a revenge game for the Bonnies as after opening last season 3-0, they went to Siena and lost by a bucket on a last second layup by Marquis Wright at the Times Union Center. The Bonnies fall into a solid angle as we play on home teams as a favorite or pickem that are coming off a home win by 20 points or more, marginal winning team from last season with a winning percentage below .600, playing a team that had a winning record. This situation is 70-34 ATS (67.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (550) St. Bonaventure Bonnies *SLAM DUNK* |
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11-18-14 | New York Knicks v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 189.5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The Knicks snapped their seven-game losing streak with a victory over Denver on Sunday. The offense finally showed signs of life as they scored 109 points on 53.9 percent shooting, both of which were season highs and the thinking here is that they can continue to progress that offense over the next few games as the schedule will allow it to do so because of the lack of strength to it. Even though New York had its best offensive performance of the season, the game against Denver still stayed under the number because the defense allowed just 93 points but that is something we should not get used to. While the Knicks stayed under the total last time out, Milwaukee has stayed under the total over its last seven games and the numbers have been coming down to coincide with that. The Bucks are allowing the third fewest amount of points in the NBA but we need to put an asterisk by that. Milwaukee has allowed 81 points or fewer three times this season but those games were misleading as they came against Philadelphia, Oklahoma City and Indiana, three teams completely disjointed because of injuries and/or youth. The offense has struggled scoring points which has helped the under streak and it is simply a case of some poor shooting. Both New York and Milwaukee are in the middle of the pack in shots so the low scoring games would come from poor shooting and not pace. Opposite will collide on each side and I think that the offenses will be able to find success against both opposing defenses. 10* Over (703) New York Knicks/(704) Milwaukee Bucks |
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11-18-14 | UMass v. Akron -7 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This was a late opener due to the fact that Massachusetts has quarterback issues. Quarterback Blake Frohnapfel was carted to the locker room in the fourth quarter last Wednesday against Ball St. with an injury to his right leg. He was questionable tonight but was downgraded to doubtful overnight and his loss is huge as Frohnapfel has accounted for 437 of the Minutemen's 442 passing attempts while throwing for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and just 10 picks. Freshman quarterback Austin Whipple is the backup and he has yet to throw a collegiate pass. The Minutemen have banked on their passing game to run their cover streak to six straight games but that is in serious jeopardy tonight. Akron meanwhile has been just the opposite as it has gone six straight games without a cover while losing its last four outright. The Zips were in great position to secure a bowl bid but now they are forced to win their last two games to get eligible but both games are against teams not going bowling to it is very attainable. Three of these last four games were on the road however and Akron is 3-2 at home with the losses coming against 10-0 Marshall and 7-3 Bowling Green and they actually outgained the latter but lost the turnover battle 5-1. Akron falls into a great rushing angle, something Massachusetts may have to reluctantly rely upon, as we play on conference home teams in the second half of the season that average between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams averaging between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (102) Akron Zips |
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11-18-14 | St. Louis v. Indiana State -1.5 | Top | 69-56 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Graduation decimated the roster that vaulted St. Louis into the top ten, for a brief stretch, last year. St. Louis has just two starters back from last season and after having one of the most experienced teams in the nation, the Billikens now have one of the least experienced teams in the country. Head coach Jim Crews used all six of his freshmen for a total of 81 minutes and survived the growing pains to pick up the win against Southern Illinois but that was at home and now those freshmen players venture into a very tough environment. Even more bad news is that the two starters for St. Louis are banged up as senior Grandy Glaze is out with a shoulder injury while guard Austin McBroom, who led the team with 24 points against the Salukis was hurt in the final and had to leave. He is questionable tonight. Indiana St. comes in off a win over Indiana-Purdue and while it took overtime to get the victory, that was on the road. The Sycamores once again have the potential to be a surprise team in the MVC with its ability to play lockdown defense and control the glass. They too lost some talent from last year but their returnees are much stronger and after going 11-2 at home last season, they will be ready for their home opener tonight. They will be out to avenge a 17-point loss in St. Louis a season ago and they do just that. 10* (722) Indiana St. Sycamores *SLAM DUNK* |
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11-18-14 | Baylor v. South Carolina -1 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
***Note 12:00 PM ET Tipoff***This is a rematch from last season's College Hoops Tip-off Marathon in which Baylor defeated the Gamecocks by a bucket after an overturned foul call at the buzzer helped to preserve the victory. South Carolina will be out for some payback today and it is in good shape to do so as we are seeing the opposite matchup this year than we has last year. The Gamecocks had five freshmen and a newcomer point guard play at Baylor in the second game of the season. This year, the Bears make the trip with their new team and will face a South Carolina squad that isn't going through growing pains. Baylor is the one that has to rebuild as five players and two starters return from last year's game, while the Gamecocks return all but two of their players, including all five who started that game. South Carolina was dominated on the boards against the Bears last season but Baylor will not be nearly as big this year so the matchup is even better for the Gamecocks. Both teams won with ease in their season opener on Friday but the Bears were at home and now they have to hit the road. Look for the Gamecocks to get their revenge Tuesday afternoon as a win should get the cover as well. 10* (710) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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11-18-14 | Manhattan +9 v. Massachusetts | Top | 68-77 | Push | 0 | 3 h 18 m | Show |
***Note 11:00 AM ET Tipoff** Manhattan looks to put its first loss behind it which took place at Florida St. on Saturday as shots would not go in while the Seminoles could not miss. It was one of those games and the Jaspers should be in better shape on Tuesday. While the losses of Michael Alvarado, George Beamon and Rhamel Brown are big, Manhattan returns multiple contributors from last year's rotation. From a leadership standpoint one player in particular, senior guard RaShawn Stores, is expected to be the leader with Shane Richards also to be relied upon. This is the third game in five days for Massachusetts and the starters have already logged a lot of minutes so we could see the Minutemen wear down, especially against a team that like to press. Massachusetts won both of those games as well as covering them with the last victory coming against rival Boston College as it was able to pull away late thanks to a 31-17 advantage at the free throw line. The Minutemen could definitely be in letdown mode now and while playing at the Mullens Center is typically a big advantage, playing at 11:00 AM takes away the normal strength of the home floor. The early season results are playing into this number and because of that, we are getting a line that I feel is higher than it should be. 10* (751) Manhattan Jaspers |
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11-17-14 | Louisiana-Lafayette v. Tulsa -7 | Top | 53-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
With most teams already having played a game, we can now concentrate on some good situational spots moving forward and we have a very good one going tonight. Tulsa opened the season with a loss at Oral Roberts as a five-point favorite, not exactly the start it was looking for following a trip to the NCAA Tournament a season ago where it lost in the opening round. Tulsa had four players in double-figures in scoring but the shooting night was atrocious, namely from long range where the Golden Hurricane shot just 10.5 percent on 2-19 shooting. We can chalk that up to just a bad night as the Golden Hurricane return an experienced squad, with five of the team's top six scorers from last season all in their junior year this season. They will be out for a big rebound on their home floor. Louisiana meanwhile is coming off a season-opening 85-57 home win over NCAA Division III-member Louisiana College on Friday night. It was more of a glorified exhibition and the Cajuns take a big step up in completion tonight. Perhaps still adjusting to a new staff, including new head coach Frank Haith, the Golden Hurricane lacked rhythm on offense, battled foul trouble on defense and generally appeared less aggressive. That changes tonight and it will have to as the Cajuns do possess a very solid frontcourt but playing at home is a big edge for Tulsa, where it was 11-3 last season including going 7-2 ATS as a favorite. They also went 7-3 ATS after a loss while Louisiana is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games off a home win. 10* (542) Tulsa Golden Hurricane *Monday Slam Dunk* |
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11-17-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +6 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 105 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Home underdogs have not been a good proposition on Monday night football of late as the last three hosts getting points have lost and failed to cover (Giants, Rams and Redskins) and we are given another opportunity tonight to buck the public. As of Monday morning, close to 30,000 bets have been placed with nearly 90 percent of the action hitting the Pittsburgh side. This is a rare Monday night game for Tennessee and while it has struggled, this is the one game where you know we will see its best efforts. The Steelers loss last week against the Jets was a surprise to many but not on this end with Pittsburgh coming off a three-game homestand and its historical play in the situation at hand. With that defeat, the Steelers are 0-7 against teams with losing records at least two games under .500 with the combined records of opponents being 9-36. The Steelers defense is in shambles right now. Not only is it 18th in scoring defense and 14th in total defense which by the way are the highest they have been ranked in those categories since 1991, but they are riddled with injuries. Troy Polamalu and Ryan Shazier are already declared out with many others on the fence. On the other side, other than a 37-point outburst at Carolina, Pittsburgh has scored three offensive touchdowns in its four other road games. Here we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games with a winning percentage of .250 or worse, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) since 1983. 10* (476) Tennessee Titans |
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11-17-14 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. NY Rangers -110 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The Rangers had a tough end to last week as they lost on Thursday and Saturday to Colorado and Pittsburgh respectively, both coming in a shootout. It has been a very up and down season for New York as it looks to bounce back tonight as home knowing that it is a perfect 3-0 in its last three games following consecutive losses. Things could be better for New York but it has lost its last four games that have gone into a shootout. The Rangers have earned a point in 10 of their last 13 games (6-3-4) and in eight of their last nine home games (5-1-3). They do in fact tend to step things up at home against the better teams as the Rangers are 15-6 in their last 21 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Tampa Bay is coming off a win Saturday against the Islanders which snapped a two-game skid which came after a six-game winning streak. The Lightning are one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference as they are in second place, three points behind Montreal but they have historically struggled around this time as they are 33-79 against the money line in their last 112 road games in November. We have a contrarian situation backing the Rangers also as we play against teams after allowing two goals or less in two straight games, going up against an opponent after losing two consecutive games after regulation. This situation is 53-29 (64.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (2) New York Rangers *Monday Breakaway* |
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11-17-14 | Denver Nuggets +12.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
We played against Denver on Sunday as it went into New York following a 21-point victory against the Pacers on Friday. Since opening the season with a win over Detroit, the Nuggets have lost seven of their last eight games and we pointed to a possible lookahead to this game which came to fruition. Denver was outscored 31-8 in the second quarter and shot just 39 percent for the game while allowing the Knicks to shoot 53.9 percent. While facing a potent Cleveland offense may not seem ideal, the Nuggets should put forth a solid effort tonight as it will be out for some revenge following a nine-point loss at home against the Cavaliers earlier this month. Cleveland had some chemistry issues to open the season, starting off 1-3 but it has run off four straight victories while covering three of those. This includes a 33-point blowout over Atlanta on Saturday so there is always letdown factor from that. Additionally, the Cavaliers host the Spurs on Wednesday and we all know who wants some revenge going back to last season. Denver is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half and it falls into a great contrarian spot here as we play on road underdogs of 10 or more points after a loss by 15 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (501) Denver Nuggets *Monday Enforcer* |
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11-16-14 | Denver Nuggets v. New York Knicks -1 | Top | 93-109 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
After getting pummeled at home against Portland which extended their losing streak to six games, the won at Indiana on Friday by 21 points so they are in prime letdown mode here. Denver is just 1-3 on the road and in addition, it has a game at Cleveland tomorrow which presents the lookahead factor for today as well. Denver was getting 2.5 points at Indiana and it is actually getting less against New York which despite the slow start and poor record, is not a worse off team than the Pacers. The Knicks have dropped seven straight games following a 2-1 start and there has been bad play coupled with bad fortunes and the latter has been the case recently. Their last three losses have come by a total of 10 points with the last two defeats both coming by a bucket. This is the final game of a four-game homestand and the offense has a chance to get going. Despite the fact they have tallied 100 points only once all season, the Knicks will be facing a Denver defense that allows 108.1 ppg which is fourth highest in the NBA and they have allowed 130 or more points on two different occasions. The Knicks skid comes to an end this afternoon. 10* (702) New York Knicks |
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11-16-14 | Minnesota Vikings v. Chicago Bears -3 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 70 h 31 m | Show |
It is no secret that the Bears have struggled but the schedulemakers have done them no favors. How's this for a start? Home game, two road games, home game, two road games, home game, two road games. This Sunday begins a stretch of five home games over their next six so if this season is to turn around, it has to start this week and with so many home games on a tap, angry fans will not be pleasant going forward. Chicago's last two games have come against the Patriots and Packers and it was humiliated in both games after allowing 51 and 55 points respectively. With the last one taking place on National Television last week, the Bears will be out to bounce back from that embarrassment which everyone witnessed. The Vikings are coming off their bye week following two straight wins and at 4-5 through nine games, they are just one win shy of their win total from all of last season. This is not a good spot for Minnesota though as it is catching the wrong team at the wrong time. Here, we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in conference games. This situation is 81-44 ATS (64.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Minnesota is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games off a home win by three points or less while Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games off two consecutive road losses. Additionally, the Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10* (454) Chicago Bears |
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11-16-14 | Houston Texans +3 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 23-7 | Win | 110 | 70 h 30 m | Show |
Following its upset last Thursday in Cincinnati, Cleveland is in first place in the AFC North for the first time in November since 1994. The Browns were on a 0-17 run in road divisional games prior to last week as you have to go all the way back to the beginning of the 2008 season to find the last time they won on the AFC North highway. Can you say letdown with the lowly Texans coming to town this Sunday? Cleveland is a surprise to many but the jury is still out on how good this team really is considering the fact it has played the easiest schedule in the NFL and has been fortunate by winning or tying the turnover margin in all but one game. Houston is coming off its bye week which was a perfect time to make a quarterback change which it did as Ryan Mallet takes over for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was far from horrible as he had a decent 8.1 quarterback rating, just below Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill and just above Matthew Stafford. Current head coach Bill O'Brien was Mallet's offensive coordinator when he was a rookie in New England so he definitely sees something positive in making this move. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in November games. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (451) Houston Texans |
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11-16-14 | Seattle Seahawks +2.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -104 | 69 h 30 m | Show |
This is the first time this season that Seattle is listed as an underdog and it comes at an excellent time. The Seahawks went through a bit of a funk as they lost two straight games against Dallas and St. Louis and then narrowly slipped past Carolina and Oakland but they have won three straight games and are starting to get some of that swagger back. After the Giants put up a fight in the first half last week, Seattle ran away with the game in the second half so it comes in with some momentum. While it is the first time this season, it is just the fifth time in the last 38 games that Seattle has been getting points and it covered all four of those previous instances. The Chiefs are hot with a four-game winning streak while having covered all of those games as well. That is the biggest factor in making them the favorite here but while it is justified based on power ratings, I don't think it is justified based on the stats. Kansas City is outgaining opponents by just over 10 ypg and it has been outgained in its last two games. While the home edge is big because of the noise, Seattle is no stranger to noise and with Arizona and San Francisco on deck in four of their next five games, this is a must win for the Seahawks. Seattle is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games off a home win and 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl last game and that is where that momentum really comes into play. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (457) Seattle Seahawks |
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11-15-14 | Arizona State v. Oregon State +9.5 | Top | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 79 h 30 m | Show |
Oregon St. opened the season 4-1 but it has dropped its last four games to fall a game under .500 for the first time this late in the season since 2011. The Beavers have failed to cover and of those last four games as well so this line is based on that as well as a high profile team coming to visit. It will be up to the Oregon St. offense to trying and get things going as it has been moving the ball well but failing to find the end zone and settling for field goals has been the big issue. And the Beavers have a great chance here to bust out and the time slot for this game could not be any better for them. Arizona St. is in first place in the Pac 12 South, while sporting an 8-1 overall record thanks to five straight wins. The most recent was a 55-31 beatdown of Notre Dame, which also put the Sun Devils into the College Football Playoff discussion where they are currently sixth. But they are in a horrible spot as the Sun Devils are coming off back-to-back victories at home against ranked opponents so there is a chance they could be due for a letdown on the road. The home team has dominated this series with four straight wins and well as victories in seven of the last eight meetings. Oregon St. is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games coming off a loss by seven points or less and under head coach Mike Riley, it is 6-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (394) Oregon St. Beavers |
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11-15-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Just over two weeks into the season, the Clippers are the only team in the NBA to not have covered a game as they drop to 0-7 against the number following an outright loss to San Antonio last Monday. Obviously it has been a long time off for Los Angeles and that is a good thing for this team that sits just 4-3 on the season. The Clippers had a similar start a season as they opened 3-3 before running off a four-game winning streak. The difference last season was that the Clippers were actually covering game but all that does now is add value to the number tonight. Phoenix is off a loss as well as it went down to Charlotte last night at home which was the culmination of a five-game homestand which spanned 10 days resulting in a 2-3 stretch. The Suns have played seven home games total while traveling for only two games where they have split, defeating the Lakers and losing to the Jazz by 27 points. This is the third back-to-back set for Phoenix this season and it dropped the first two second games by double-digits. The Clippers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss as a favorite and they fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play on teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after failing to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games, playing a winning team. This situation is 71-38 ATS (65.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (520) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-15-14 | Utah v. Stanford -7 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 46 m | Show |
This is an interesting matchup in that both Utah and Stanford are coming off blowout losses against Oregon in their last game. The Utes lost last week 51-27 which was their second straight loss and the fact they are even as good as 4-3 over their last seven games is astounding as they have been outgained in every one of those seven games. Overall, Utah is 6-3 but it has been outgained by an average of 18.2 ypg which may not seen significant but it is important because lines and public perception go hand-in-hand with the records of teams. Stanford lost two weeks ago at Oregon 45-16 but it was only a 15-point game in the fourth quarter and the Cardinal were outgained by just 97 total yards so that loss was not nearly as bad as the final score shows similar to the Utah game. But that game was on the road which is a big difference. While Stanford is a game worse than Utah, it is outgaining opponents by 106.6 ypg which is a better indication of how it is playing compared to Utah but the touchdown spread is attracting Utah money because of the records and Stanford's supposed struggles. The Cardinal have been a great bounceback team as they are 22-9 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game while going 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. This is the final home game for the Stanford seniors and they will make it count. 10* (356) Stanford Cardinal |
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11-15-14 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State -14 | Top | 37-32 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 46 m | Show |
After starting the season 1-5 with the lone victory coming over Campbell of the FCS and one of those losses coming off another FCS team, Appalachian St, has turned the corner and won its last three games. Now the Mountaineers are catching double-digits for just the third time this season but don't think we will be jumping on the bandwagon here. They were blown out in those two games when getting double-digit points and this current win streak has come against teams that are a combined 6-23. Arkansas St. still has a lot to play for as it is 4-1 in the Sun Belt Conference and still has a shot at its fourth straight conference championship. It will need help along the way but the Red Wolves have no choice but to win out and with the three remaining teams sitting below them in the standings, this should happen. Arkansas St. is already bowl eligible but there is certainly more to play for and playing at home has been a great advantage as they are 4-0 straight up and against the number in Jonesboro. Arkansas St. has been favored by double-digits five times this season and they have gone 4-1 ATS in those games with the lone spread loss coming by just a half-point. Here, we play against road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that are coming off a win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, in November games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1992. Arkansas St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg and 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. 10* (352) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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11-15-14 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +13 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 68 h 47 m | Show |
This is one of the biggest games in recent memory for Minnesota as it sits in a three-way tie in the Big Ten West Division at 4-1 with Nebraska and Wisconsin. Here's the deal. If the Golden Gophers win out, they are the division champions but with the final two games of the season against the aforementioned Huskers and Badgers on the road, that probably isn't likely. Still, this is a very solid team that should be undefeated in the conference as a loss to Illinois is the lone blemish despite outgaining the Illini by 148 yards. The Gophers are coming off a destruction last week against a very good Iowa team so the confidence is sky high. Ohio St. continued its march toward the College Football Playoff as it took care of Michigan St. last week without much problem. This is the Buckeyes final road game of the season before closing at home against Indiana and Michigan so a trip to the Big Ten Championship seems imminent. Ohio St. has covered all but one of its last seven games since losing to Virginia Tech so the lines are shaded the other way and the Gophers are catching a higher than expected number here. This is also a big letdown spot for the Buckeyes after their revenge win over the Spartans. Minnesota's only other loss came at TCU where it committed five turnovers. Here, we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (326) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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11-14-14 | Tulsa v. Central Florida UNDER 55 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
Tulsa snapped its seven-game losing streak with a win last week against SMU which really isn't saying much. It has been a struggle for a second consecutive season for the Golden Hurricane as they will miss out on a bowl game again after a string of three straight bowl games. The defense has been the issue which is evidenced by their 8-1 over mark on the season but they have faced some tough offenses along the way. That cannot be said on Friday however as UCF is averaging just over 330 ypg which is 112th in the country. The Knights are coming off a loss against Connecticut in their last game as their own defense, which is the strength of the team, let them down by allowing 37 points. They came into that game allowing an average of just 14 ppg over their previous five games so that unit is going to come into this one ready to made amends. They have gone over the total in two straight games but now they are seeing their biggest total of the season which present some great value going the other way. This is an interesting dynamic whereas Tulsa has produced an average of 922 yards in its games which is 15th most in the country but UCF has produced an average of just 638.4 yards in its games which is the fourth fewest in the country. The Knights are the better team by far which means the game will be controlled by their game thus resulting in a low scoring game. 10* Under (317) Tulsa Golden Hurricane/(318) Central Florida Knights |
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11-14-14 | Utah Jazz v. New York Knicks -3.5 | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
We lost with the Knicks two nights ago but we are coming back with them again Friday as they are in good position with a good number. The Knicks have lost six straight games while failing to cover their last four including the last two coming at home. New York has still yet to reach 100 points in a game this season while averaging a league-low 91.6 ppg but Utah could be the perfect opponent to change that. The Jazz have allowed 102.2 ppg on 46.7 percent shooting, ninth and seventh highest in the NBA respectively. The problem for Utah is not only defense though as it is averaging just 97.6 ppg and its last game showed the struggles with a nine-point fourth quarter as an eight-point lead with five minutes remaining turned into a loss. New York should welcome the Jazz as should Carmelo Anthony who averaged 31.5 ppg on 55.3 percent shooting in two wins last season. Utah is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following two straight road game while going 2-6-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The skid ends tonight. 10* (708) New York Knicks |
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11-13-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Miami Dolphins OVER 42 | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 42 m | Show |
The public has been absolutely killing it with the NFL Primetime overs as they have gone a combined 24-7 on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights. While that would normally steer me to the under for this Thursday game based on percentages alone, the last two Thursday games have actually gone under the number so there is no value going that way. The value I feel is actually going the other way with both Buffalo and Miami coming off low scoring games this past week and now having to play on a short week, which can typically be a detriment to the defense. Buffalo lost to Kansas City and only 30 total points were scored which came after their game against the Jets where 66 total points were put up. Prior to that, the Bills and Vikings only scored 33 points after Buffalo put up 59 total points with the Patriots. This goes to show how one game style does not necessarily feed into the next. It can be argued that the Dolphins have had that happen based on four straight games that have gone under the total. But I think that has had a lot to do with the opponent and how the game played out. Miami has averaged 30.6 ppg in its previous five games before last week where they scored 16 points but facing the best defense in the NFL in the Lions can do that. The Over is 10-4-1 in the Bills last 15 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and Miami falls into a great situation where we play on the over where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points involving teams off 1 or more consecutive unders and outscoring opponents +3 to +7 ppg going up against teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (309) Buffalo Bills/(310) Miami Dolphins |
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11-13-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 195 | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Here we have a battle of two first place teams in their respective divisions and I am expecting a defensive battle despite recent results. The Bulls are known for their strong defense which has been hit or miss this season but they are still in the top half of the league in points allowed and are fifth in shooting percentage allowed. Chicago has gone over the total in three straight games so as of Thursday morning, they are seeing their highest over/under of the young season. The Bulls will be facing a Toronto offense that leads the NBA in scoring but one look at the opposition will tell you why that is the case as the Raptors have played the 25th ranked schedule in the league. Granted, that has also helped their defensive numbers but the Bulls are no offensive juggernaut and as far as pace goes, their 79.5 shot attempts per game are the seventh fewest in the NBA. There is not a lot different from last year to this year with these teams yet in four meetings last season, the highest closing total was 187.5 and the points scored in the four meetings was 176, 176, 164 and 186 so we are getting a great number to work with tonight. Chicago is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game while Toronto is 5-1 to the under in its last six games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. 10* Under (501) Chicago Bulls/(502) Toronto Raptors |
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11-13-14 | East Carolina -2.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 46-54 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 41 m | Show |
East Carolina has absolutely dominated the stat book this season as it has outgained all eight opponents but somehow has a couple losses in there. The worst one came last time out against Temple and even though it was on the road, the Pirates were big favorites by 9.5 points and lost by 10 points despite outgaining the Owls by 293 total yards. Losing five fumbles will do that to just about any team. When you outgain the opponent in every game, the net yardage variance is usually big and for East Carolina, it has +210.1 ypg differential which is fifth best in the country. After covering their first four games, the Pirates have failed to cover their last four and that is giving us tremendous value even though they are favored once again. Cincinnati has won three straight games while covering all three as well which goes along with the contrarian value again. Despite being 5-3 overall, the Bearcats are actually getting outgained by an average of close to 10 ypg so we are talking about a huge statistical variance between these two teams and while both may be 3-1 in the AAC, they are very different 3-1 teams. East Carolina is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses while Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after two consecutive covers as a favorite. 10* (311) East Carolina Pirates |
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11-12-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Denver Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 130-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
After opening the season with a victory at home over Detroit, Denver has lost its last five games and has failed to cover any of those games along the way. The Nuggets came into the season with mediocre projections and so far, they have achieved just that but this team is better than the record shows and this is a good spot for a victory. Denver is playing with some quick revenge as its last game came in Portland on Sunday which resulted in a 16-point loss. Portland meanwhile has played since then as it was at home last night hosting the Hornets and it was lucky to come away with a victory. The Blazers fell behind by as much as 23 points and trailed by 10 points heading into the fourth quarter but rallied late and needed a replay reverse to guarantee the victory as opposed to the contest going in overtime. That is the type of game that is difficult to bounce back from as it took a ton of energy for Portland to come back and now playing the next night on the road makes it more difficult. The Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Nuggets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (714) Denver Nuggets |
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11-12-14 | Kent State v. Bowling Green OVER 52.5 | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
Bowling Green because bowl eligible last Tuesday with a win over Akron and it now has a 1.5 game lead over Ohio in the MAC East with three games remaining. After scoring 31 or more points in six of their first seven games, the Falcons have totaled just 41 points in their last two games and going back, they have gone under in their last four games. That presents us with a great opportunity to cash the over on Wednesday as Bowling Green is working with its lowest total of the season and its first one in the 50's all year. Falcons games have produced an average of 974.3 ypg this season which is the sixth highest yardage output in the country. Kent St. fell to 1-8 with a loss against Toledo last Tuesday in a game that also stayed below the total, the second straight under for the Golden Flashes. The offense has been hit or miss this season and has been the latter the majority of the time but even Kent St. should have success moving the ball against Bowling Green's 123rd ranked defense. On the other side, the defense has shown signs of good play but those times have been rare and the Golden Flashes are just 88th in total defense. They have faced four teams ranked in the top 50 in offense and have allowed an average of 38.3 ppg while allowing just 23.6 ppg in the other five games against teams ranked outside the top 50. Bowling Green falls into the former so we should see plenty of points. 10* Over (307) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(308) Bowling Green Falcons |
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11-12-14 | Detroit Pistons +6.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 103-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Detroit is one of two teams in the NBA to still not have a cover, the Clippers being the other, so the longer this streak goes on, the better the spread gets in backing the Pistons and the better the percentages get of them actually getting a win against the number. Detroit will be also be looking for its first road win of the season and the betting public says it won't happen as the Pistons are the biggest go against road consensus of the night. Washington is 5-2 on the season which is not a big surprise as the Wizards came in with some high expectations after making the playoffs a season ago. They have played a fairly easy schedule thus far as they have faced Orlando, Milwaukee and New York once and Indiana twice but their strength of schedule is high only because of games against the Heat and Raptors. While this is a good team, I'm not sold on the fact they should be favored this much as going back, the Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 so they have played up to the level of competition when needed. 10* (701) Detroit Pistons |
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11-11-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Dallas Mavericks -6.5 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
The results have been mixed for the Mavericks as their four wins have come against three teams that will struggle to make the playoffs while the three teams they have lost to will be in the postseason. The jury is still out on tonight's opponent but after losing at home to Miami on Sunday, I expect Dallas to come back strong tonight. Dallas followed up its first two losses this season with big wins by 18 and 23 points over Utah and losing consecutive games has been a rarity as the Mavericks have won 17 of their last 20 regular season games following a defeat and they are 45-14 ATS in their last 59 games following a loss. The Kings have been one of the big surprises in the NBA and because Sacramento is off to a 5-2 start on the season, the Mavericks will not be taking the Kings lightly and with Philadelphia, Minnesota and Charlotte on deck, there is no chance for looking toward the future. The Kings suffered their second loss of the season as they lost at Oklahoma City and that can be chalked up as a bad loss with all of the issues the Thunder are going through. So which Kings team is the real Kings team? I think it is a mix of both as they are better but they are not as good as the record shows. Dallas has owned this series with 20 straight home victories but this is the lowest number it has had to lay at home in two years. 10* (508) Dallas Mavericks |
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11-11-14 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -4.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This game has turned into a big rivalry in the MAC and this year there is a lot on the line with first place in the MAC West in the sights for both teams. The winner will keep pace and be in good position while the loser could very well be eliminated after tonight. Northern Illinois has won three straight games and trails Toledo by a game so a victory will put it into a first place tie but the Huskies would hold the tiebreaker. After two straight road games, this is the first home game in three weeks and it is also the final home game of the season which given Northern Illinois a big edge for Senior Night. Toledo has yet to lose in the conference but it has had some close calls along the way. This game was off the board until Monday due to the injury situation for Toledo. Logan Woodside has now been downgraded to doubtful for tonight with a leg injury suffered last week at Kent St. He has thrown for 1,711 yards with 14 touchdowns and just five picks and has been the general in a Toledo offense that has had no problem putting points on the board. The Rockets will likely lean on redshirt freshman Michael Julian, who finished out the last game against Kent St. but was largely ineffective. Even if Woodside cane go, he will not be close to 100 percent. The Huskies have a great contrarian situation on their side as we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 42-10 ATS (80.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (304) Northern Illinois Huskies |
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11-11-14 | Pittsburgh Penguins v. NY Rangers +133 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 133 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Pittsburgh is the hottest team in the NHL right now with seven straight victories following a 6-1 destruction of Buffalo on Saturday. The streak includes four straight road wins including each of the last three victories taking place on the road. Because of the streak, the Penguins are bigger favorites than they should be and we will take advantage of these overinflated odds. The Rangers have dropped two straight and four of their last five games which is also being taken into account in this moneyline. The last loss came against 6-9 Edmonton on Sunday in what was described by coaches as their worst effort of the season. They weren't physical, they made poor decisions with the puck and spent little to no time in the offensive zone and that resulted in the first closed-door meeting of the season in the locker room following the game. An effort like that will give them no chance here but we should see just the opposite tonight as I expect New York to come out with a lot of passion against the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Rangers are 14-6 in their last 20 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and they have a great contrarian situation going as we play on home teams against the money line after allowing three goals or more two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring four goals or more in four straight games. This situation is 52-25 (67.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (6) New York Rangers |
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11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
With the Saints losing on Sunday, Carolina knows that a win here has it right back in first place in the NFC South, the only division in football without a team with a winning record. The Panthers have struggled of late with a 0-3-1 record over their last four games but the schedule has been rigid. They have faced the Bengals on the road and then followed that up with games against Green Bay, Seattle and New Orleans. Philadelphia is no slouch certainly but it is far from full strength now with quarterback Nick Foles out of the lineup for at least the remainder of the regular season. He has done an awesome job in leading the Eagles high powered offense which currently is averaging 29.3 ppg and 409.3 ypg, respectively 5th and 4th in the NFL. Now they have to move forward with Mark Sanchez who looked good at times last week against Houston when he came in but this is still a backup quarterback we are talking about. This is a good thing for the Panthers whose defense has regressed since finishing second in both total defense and scoring defense a season ago. On the other side, the Eagles defense is very average which will give Carolina a great opportunity to bounce back from its recent struggles. The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Panthers also fall into a great contrarian situation based on the scoring as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (273) Carolina Panthers |
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11-10-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. New York Knicks +1.5 | Top | 91-85 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is the second game of a home-and-home between the Hawks and Knicks and New York will be out to avenge the loss in Atlanta on Saturday. That defeat made it four straight losses for the Knicks following a 1-2 start but the last three have come on the road so a return home should have them ready to break the skid. Additionally, they are on a 1-4 ATS skid and have yet to cover at home this season, going 0-3 so while getting points here isn't surprising, it is about who they are getting points from. Atlanta is 0-3 on the road this season following a dismal 16-29 record on the road a season ago. The Hawks have played well in the last two road games but have been unable to come away with a victory and going back, they are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. New York is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games after playing three consecutive road games and they fall into a great situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive overs, that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (706) New York Knicks |
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11-10-14 | New Jersey Devils +164 v. Boston Bruins | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
After an uneven start to the season, Boston has started to catch fire with wins in four straight games but the level of opposition has been pretty suspect. The Bruins needed overtime to defeat Buffalo and Florida, the two teams likely to be sitting in the Eastern Conference basement come season end. Tonight they are favored by the same amount that they were against the Panthers and while New Jersey is struggling, the Devils are a much more formidable opponent. It has been quite the opposite type of season for New Jersey and a very streaky one as it has put up runs of 3-0, 0-4, 3-1 and 0-3 so it will be out to snap the current three-game slide. Additionally, the Devils will be out to end a three-game road losing streak and the schedule sets up well here as Boston has been off for four days which hurts the positive momentum while the Devils have been off for three days which should be a great break for goalie Corey Schneider who struggled in back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday. We play against home favorites of -200 or less against the money line in the first half of the season that are coming off 3 or more consecutive home wins, with a winning record on the season and playing a losing team. This situation is 20-8 (71.4 percent) since 1996 and those 12 net wins have registered close to 22 units in profit. 10* (51) New Jersey Devils |
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11-09-14 | Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 53.5 | Top | 14-55 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 24 m | Show |
The under last Sunday night was looking good through three quarters with just 32 points on the board but then Baltimore and Pittsburgh erupted for 34 points in the final quarter to push another Sunday night game over the total and make bookmakers across the world cringe once again. That is because the over is now an uncanny 8-1 on Sunday nights and overall in all primetime games, 22 of 28 games have gone over the number. The public continues to ride this trend which will come crashing down eventually and all the linesmakers can to is keep raising the number. The first meeting this season between Chicago and Green Bay closed at 51 so we are seeing close to a field goal more this time around. Some of that is due to the recent primetime scoring as well as the trends between these two teams. While the Bears went over the total in their last game prior to their bye, the Packers went over the total in their last five games prior to their bye and on the season, they are 7-1 to the over. It is a safe bet the over is going to be hammered again this week so the best bet is to wait until closer to game time as we should see it go up even more barring any weather issues which does not look to be the case as of now. Chicago is 18-7 to the under in its last 25 games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games while going 9-1 to the under in its last 10 road games after being outgained by 100 or more yards two consecutive games. Green Bay fall into a situation where we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (271) Chicago Bears/(272) Green Bay Packers |
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11-09-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns +1 | Top | 95-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
After a perfect 2-0 start, Phoenix has gone just 1-3 over its last four games including two straight losses at home. The Suns lost in overtime against Sacrament last time out and going back to that perfect start, that have gone four games without a cover. Despite this run, the Suns are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS loss. Golden St. meanwhile is off to a perfect 5-0 start and has covered every game along the way, hence the Warriors are listed as road favorites tonight. We won with them on Thursday and they are coming off another win last night at Houston, which also came into Saturday undefeated, so they are ripe for their first letdown on the season following two huge wins. And with a game at San Antonio on Tuesday, Golden St. also can be guilty of a possible lookahead to that one. Phoenix is 23-12 ATS after allowing 105 points or more over the last two seasons so it is in a solid bounceback spot here. The home team won all four meetings a season ago and I expect this year to start off with the same. 10* (512) Phoenix Suns |
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11-09-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. NY Jets +6 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
The Jets were one of our big plays last week and they were a couple plays of not only covering but having a chance to pull off the outright upset. They are a team that has been doing nothing but hurting themselves as mistakes has been the biggest cause of their eight-game losing streak. New York has outgained each of its last three opponents but obviously has no wins to show for it and the real kicker is that on the season, the Jets are actually outgaining opponents by 4.8 ypg. You will not find many teams in the history of this league that are 1-8 but outgaining their opponents. The Steelers are the biggest consensus pick of the week which come as no surprise with the Jets problems as well as the fact Pittsburgh is now on a three-game winning streak. All of those came at home and you could not have asked for better situations in any of those. Coming off a three-game homestand has been a disaster for a lot of teams as they lose more than they win and this situation is even better considering the Steelers are facing a team that is 1-8 and not from their division. The Jets have two fantastic situations backing them as well. First, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1983. Next, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 73-37 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (262) New York Jets |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
The Dolphins have quietly won three straight games but there was nothing quiet last week with their 37-0 trouncing of the Chargers and that of course is what the public remembers. The winning streak could feasibly be five games right now has Miami not lost in the final seconds at home against Green Bay but nonetheless it is just a game and a half behind the Patriots in the AFC East and already with a victory over New England. While the Dolphins have been exceptional on the road the last few years, they head into Detroit in a very unfavorable spot. The Lions are also riding a three-game winning streak and coming off their bye week following their come-from-behind win over Atlanta in London two weeks ago. It is a well known fact that winning teams across the pond have struggled in their first game back but the situations have been different. Detroit has back-to-back road games at Arizona and New England on deck so it knows it needs to take care of business at home plus the Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. Detroit was favored by 1.5 points over the Saints in their last home game and to be favored by not much more here is surprising. The Dolphins are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games after a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better and they fall into a negative situation where we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (254) Detroit Lions |
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11-09-14 | Atlanta Falcons v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 45.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -106 | 72 h 54 m | Show |
While Atlanta was able to cover the total on its own in the first matchup, we likely will not be seeing that again here but I think the Falcons can get something going on that side of the ball after not doing much of late. After averaging 32.8 ppg through their first four games, the Falcons have averaged a mere 15.3 ppg over their last four games so it should come as no surprise that all four of these recent games have stayed under the number. Having a bye week was huge as the offensive line was severely banged up and while still not 100 percent, they are definitely in better shape now. The Falcons defense has done its part to try and get over the total as it has allowed 27 ppg over this four-game stretch which is great news for the Buccaneers which have been stuck in neutral most of the season. Tampa Bay is second to last in points scored in the league but it has faced some good defenses along the way. That changes here as Atlanta has the worst total defense in the NFL and fourth worst scoring defense. Tampa Bay has stayed under the total in its last two games which again adds to the value this week. Tampa Bay is 19-8 to the over in its last 27 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games while the over is 8-3 in the Falcons last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Also, we play the over where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points involving road teams that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 40-13 (75.5 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (263) Atlanta Falcons/(264) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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11-08-14 | Oregon -8 v. Utah | Top | 51-27 | Win | 100 | 80 h 24 m | Show |
Oregon and Utah both come in riding 4-0 ATS runs but there is a huge difference between the two. Utah has lost the yardage battle in all four of those games and is actually 0-6 in TYD over its last six games, while Oregon has outgained its opponent in three the last four games including three in a row. We played against the Utes last Saturday against Arizona St. and it was an extremely frustrating non-cover as they were outgained by 203 total yards but lost by just three points in overtime. Now Utah faces the most explosive offense it has seen and one that surely will keep the pedal down in order to impress the playoff committee. The Ducks are right back in the hunt in the latest College Football Playoff rankings as they moved from fifth lace to fourth place so now they control their own destiny for the most part and that is a huge motivator. Laying points on the road can be tricky but if there is one team that has no problem doing it, it is the Ducks are they are 15-6 over their last 21 games as a road chalk including 3-0 ATS when favored by single digits. Additionally, the Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Utes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game and 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (193) Oregon Ducks |
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11-08-14 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Columbus Blue Jackets +150 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
We caught another horrible break last night with Columbus as it lost in overtime after losing a 2-1 lead in the third period. The Blue Jackets have been stung with some tight losses of late but the fact of the matter is that they have dropped seven straight games and they haven't lost eight in a row since starting 0-7-1 in 2011-12. Goalie Curtis McElhinney has lost four of the games during this skid since taking over for Sergei Bobrovsky and after losing last night, he will likely sit and we will see Anton Forsberg tonight who is making just his second career start after losing a tough 3-2 decision at New Jersey. Tampa Bay has been red hot as it has won four straight games with the offense leading the way with a total of 20 goals over this stretch. All of those games have taken place at home however where the Lightning are 6-2 and while they do have a winning record on the road, things have not been nearly as easy. In the lone game where they were favored by a significant margin, the Lightning fell to Edmonton and they are favored pretty big again tonight on the road. This is by far the biggest underdog price the Blue Jackets have seen this season and is by far the biggest home underdog price it has been given against an Eastern Conference opponent in the regular season in over two years. The streak ends tonight. 10* (64) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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11-08-14 | Montreal Alouettes v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -3 | Top | 15-29 | Win | 100 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
The final week of the CFL regular season is here and every game on the schedule has playoff implications whether it be getting in the postseason or just seeding. The game between Montreal and Hamilton is pretty simple and the Toronto result on Friday will not affect it at all. The Argonauts have to win to have a shot at the playoffs but also need help but even if they lose, the level of this game still matters. If Montreal wins, the Alouettes claim first place in the East Division and second place will go to Hamilton or Toronto depending on if the latter won. Even if Toronto does lose, Hamilton still has plenty to play for as even though they would be guaranteed a playoff spot, if the Tiger Cats beat Montreal by eight or more points, they would claim first place in the East Division. First place is big, because there are no East Division juggernauts and bad weather can help out the hosts. So while this game matters for both sides, I like the home team to get it done. The Alouettes have been the hottest team around with wins in six straight games and eight of their last nine so that is keeping this number low. They are still just 3-5 on the road while Hamilton is 6-2 at home which includes a five-game winning streak. Most important, the are outgaining opponents by 107.7 ypg at home while Montreal is getting outgained on the road by 102.9 ypg. The Tiger Cats have a great revenge situation in play also as we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 that are revenging a loss, playing a winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (296) Hamilton Tiger Cats |
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11-08-14 | UTEP +7.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 27-35 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 23 m | Show |
UTEP cashed for us last week as it rolled over Southern Mississippi even though the Miners played far from their best game. We will be riding them again this week as they are getting points against a team that is going in the opposite direction. UTEP has won three straight games and is just one win from bowl eligibility so it has already matched its win total for the last two seasons combined. The big turnaround can be attributed to a defense that has allowed only 14 points over the last two games and while it will b e facing a tougher offense this week, it is the defense on the other side that makes this one pop. Western Kentucky has been able to stop no one of late as it has allowed 42, 45, 51 and 59 points the last four games, each getting worse going forward. That is not a good sign going up against a Miners offense that is clicking at the right time by averaging 37 ppg over its last three games. We have two great situations on our side as first, we play against home teams after allowing 37 points or more last game against going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points. This situation is 54-21 (72 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on teams in the second half of the season that are +/- 40 ypg in rushing differential going up against teams getting outrushed by 50 or more ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (167) UTEP Miners |
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11-08-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -4 | Top | 102-106 | Push | 0 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
After losing two games last weekend, Portland has picked things up this with two massive wins as it defeated Cleveland by 19 points and Dallas by 21 points. Those games were at home however where four of the first five games for the Blazers have taken place this season. They lost their lone road outing at Sacramento which was over a week ago and they hit the road again for just the second time this season following a three-game homestand. While the Blazers have won two straight, the Clippers are coming off a loss at Golden St. on Wednesday and it was not a good one. The final deficit was 17 points but the game was not even that close as garbage points narrowed the gap and after the defeat, the Clippers find themselves 0-5 ATS, one of only three teams in the NBA without a cover. It is about effort as they have been outrebounded in every game and couldn't hold double-digit leads in four games so we can expect a full out effort today after some comments after the Warriors game should have them ready to go. Clippers head coach Doc Rivers called his players "soft" and in a league full of egos, that is motivation enough. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and they get back into the win column on Saturday with their best effort of the season. 10* (702) Los Angeles Clippers |
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