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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-30-19 | Cardinals -109 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. The Phillies have won the first two games of this series to make it five wins in their last six games but there could be some lookahead today as they travel out west for a three-game set with the Dodgers over the weekend. They have been tough at home with a 20-10 record and the short price may seem misleading but it is there for a reason. The Cardinals have lost three straight games to fall two games under .500 but at still +12 in scoring differential which is actually sixth most in the National League. St. Louis is 10-4 in its last 14 games after allowing five runs or more in its previous game while going 20-4 in its last 24 games after scoring four runs or less in three straight games. Philadelphia hands the ball to Jerad Eickhoff, who is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA but over his last three starts, he has allowed 17 hits and 13 runs in 12 innings. Eickhoff had a stellar 1.50 ERA through his first five games but has labored with a 9.75 ERA over his last three outings. After giving up zero home runs in his first 30 innings, he has surrendered seven long balls in his last three outings. The Phillies are 0-4 in his last four starts following an outing of less than four innings in his last appearance. The Cardinals counter with Dakota Hudson who has been on a roll of late. He tossed a career-high 6.1 innings in a 6-3 win over the Braves in his last outing and now has four quality starts in May, including three straight, and a 3.07 ERA over his last five games. 10* (951) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-29-19 | Blues v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON BRUINS for our NHL Wednesday Puckline Dominator. As expected, St. Louis got off to the hot start in Game One as it took a 2-0 lead before Boston finally found its legs after a long layoff and the Blues were unable to match the Bruins intensity. Boston rallied with four unanswered goals, held a 30-12 edge in shots over the final two periods and had its way with St. Louis in the physicality department. Boston, which has now won eight straight games, can close out the month of May without a loss. The Bruins have allowed 11 goals in the eight games, only one when shorthanded. They are 25-for-26 on the penalty kill (96.2 percent), have started in the offensive zone 56.22 percent of the time at 5-on-5 and have won 56.6 percent of all offensive zone face-offs. The Blues were very undisciplined in Game One as they gave the Bruins five power play opportunities. Even if you kill off every single one, you have no opportunity to generate any positive game flow and you tire yourself out killing it off. Six of the eight Boston wins during this streak have come by two or more goals and the momentum from the final two periods on Monday carries forward into Game Two. 10* (4) Boston Bruins Puckline -1.5 Goals |
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05-29-19 | Storm +3 v. Lynx | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE STORM for our WNBA Wednesday Enforcer. With reigning MVP Breanna Stewart out for the season with an Achilles injury and Sue Bird sidelined indefinitely with a knee injury, the Storm rallied from 11 down in the first half to open defense of their WNBA title with an impressive 77-68 win over Phoenix on Saturday. Now Seattle hits the road for the start of a three-game roadtrip after going a very impressive 13-4 on the highway last regular season. Despite being shorthanded, the Storm are still a very well rounded team. Minnesota also got off to an impressive start with an 89-71 win over Chicago following a disappointing season a year ago where it went just 18-16. Napheesa Collier scored 27 points in her WNBA debut and Sylvia Fowles added 16 with 10 rebounds as the Lynx shot 44.1 percent, held a 46-29 advantage on the glass and attempted more than twice as many free throws (32 to 15) than the Sky. The play of rookie Collier was big but we cannot ignore the fact that Minnesota is without Maya Moore, Lindsay Whalen, Seimone Augustus and Rebekkah Brunson, four massive pieces to winning four titles and making six Finals appearances since 2011. 10* (615) Seattle Storm |
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05-29-19 | Tigers v. Orioles -116 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Detroit picked up a shutout win last night in Baltimore to snap a three-game slide but it remains 12 games under .500 for the season. It has been a lengthy poor run for the Tigers as they are 8-22 over their last 30 games and they have gone 0-8 over their last eight games following a win. Detroit is 24-43 in its last 67 games on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. Baltimore has had its share of struggles as well with the worst record in baseball but it does have a rare advantage tonight that we can take advantage of. Pitching has been the big issue for the Baltimore struggles as its 5.73 ERA is worst in all of baseball and by a wide margin. One pleasant surprise has been the arm of John Means who has a 2.96 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through eight starts, both of which are best on the team of the regular starters. He has allowed three runs or less in seven of those outings and the Tigers are 8-20 in their last 28 games against left-handed starters. Detroit turns to Ryan Carpenter who is coming off his best start of the season where he allowed one run on two hits in five innings but this came after giving up 13 runs over nine innings in his first two starts. Baltimore is hitting a solid .266 at home against left-handed pitching. 10* (918) Baltimore Orioles |
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05-28-19 | Cubs v. Astros -131 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Houston took the opener of this series yesterday as it took at 6-2 lead and held on for the 6-5 victory. The Astros are 5-3 on this current homestand to move to 21-7 at home on the season, the best home record in baseball. The Astros are 23-9 in their last 32 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Chicago has lost two straight games but remains in first place in the National League Central by a half-game over the Brewers. The Cubs are just 12-12 on the road and going back, they are 1-6 in their last seven games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Rookie right-hander Corbin Martin will start for the Astros. Tuesday will mark the fourth career start and third at Minute Maid Park for the Houston native, who recorded nine strikeouts over 5.1 innings in his big-league debut on May 12th while beating the Rangers. Jon Lester has allowed nine runs over his last two starts covering 8.1 innings and is in a tough spot here as the Astros are ranked first in the league in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Here, we play against National League road teams 4.7 rpg and with a bad bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities going up against teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better. This situation is 43-7 (86 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Houston Astros |
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05-27-19 | Mets +161 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Mets are back to .500 at 26-26 as they have won six of their last seven games. They now begin a seven-game West Coast swing that starts against a Dodgers team that has the best record in the National League and is coming off a 6-2 road trip. We have no issue stepping in front of that Los Angeles train backing an elite ace at a great underdog price. Jacob deGrom has had a couple poor outings this season but he will look to repeat his solid outing Wednesday against the Nationals where he gave up one run on two hits over six innings, with his eight strikeouts matching his most since April 14. Many will point out the fact he is 0-4 against the Dodgers but he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 10 starts, eight of which have been quality outings. Clayton Kershaw is having a great season but he is far from dominant like he has been in the past. He has a 3.33 ERA and a 44:8 K:BB ratio, neither of which are anything special and he has proven to be hittable of late, allowing 26 hits over his last four starts. Here, we play against National League home favorites with a moneyline of -125 to -175 that are averaging 5.0 or more rpg and after scoring nine or more runs last game going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 33-14 (70.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (907) New York Mets |
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05-27-19 | Blues +137 v. Bruins | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Monday Breakaway. The Blues are headed to the Stanley Cup finals for the first time since 1970, where they will attempt to win their first Stanley Cup in franchise history. Ironically, Boston defeated St. Louis in that 1970 series in a 4-0 sweep but we see the Blues getting the upper edge here and at a great price in the opening game. It has been quite the season for St. Louis which sat in last place in the Western Conference as recently as January but closed the season with a red hot 24-5 record and have put together a great postseason led by goaltender Jordan Binnington. Even when you saw him lose his composure at the end of the hand pass game, he rebounded spectacularly as he stopped 75 of 77 shots the next three games, going 3-0. There's concern about potential rust for the Bruins as teams that swept an opponent in this year's playoffs have gone 2-12 in the next round. The Bruins have a great goalie as well in Tuukka Rask and while Boston has the special-teams advantage here, one note on St. Louis is that is has been short-handed only 41 times in 19 games. Here, we play on underdogs against the moneyline that are coming off a home win by three goals or more going up against an opponent off a road win where they shut out their opponent. This situation is 30-16 (65.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (1) St. Louis Blues |
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05-26-19 | Sparks +1.5 v. Aces | Top | 70-83 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES SPARKS for our WNBA Sunday Enforcer. Las Vegas enters the season an WNBA Championship contenders following a 14-20 season but it has definitely upgraded. The move that has many considering the Aces to be championship-caliber was the blockbuster deal made earlier this month to acquire center Liz Cambage from the Wings. While the future will be bright, she will not be in uniform tonight as she is nursing an Achilles injury. Los Angeles is expected to make a rebound as week following a disappointing 19-15 season by its standards. The Sparks will be without star Candace Parker, who is nursing a hamstring injury. But they have All-Star sisters Nneka and Chiney Ogwumike, along with guard Chelsea Gray, and will provide the Aces with a formidable test to start the season. The Sparks acquired Chiney Ogwumike in a trade with Connecticut in late April, adding another 2018 All-Star to the roster. While she has dealt with injury issues that caused her to miss the 2015 and 2017 seasons, she averaged 14.1 ppg and 7.5 rpg while shooting 60.3 percent for the Sun last year. 10* (611) Los Angeles Sparks |
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05-26-19 | Braves v. Cardinals -151 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -151 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals snapped the Braves three-game winning streak last night and look to keep that going here before hitting the road for a big series against the Phillies. St. Louis scored four runs in the eighth inning to secure the victory and that positive momentum goes forward. St. Louis is now 8-0 in home games with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season. The Braves are now 2.5 games behind the Phillies in the National League East and despite the win last night, the Braves are 5-11 in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record. Jack Flaherty gets the ball for St. Louis and he has been on a roll since a shaky start to the season. He posted a 5.25 ERA through his first five starts but has a 2.50 ERA over his last five starts. Additionally, he has a 2.48 ERA in five home starts. Julio Teheran counters for Atlanta and while he has been dominant at home, he has a 4.46 ERA on the road. Here, we play against National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a slugging percentage of .430 or better and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last three starts going up against teams with a bullpen WHIP of 1.30 or better. This situation is 123-68 (64.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (962) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-25-19 | Rangers v. Angels -124 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. With the series opening win last night, Texas has now won five straight games to move to two games over .500 on the season. The Rangers picked up a rare road win on Friday as they are still just 8-15 on the highway and despite that victory, they are 3-7 in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing home record. The Angels have trended in the opposite direction as they are on a five-game losing streak with the offense averaging just 3.0 rpg over this stretch. Los Angeles is 35-17 in its last 52 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Tyler Skaggs has shown some inconsistency but he has pitched better than his overall records indicate. He has been very solid at home with a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in three starts. Mike Minor has been shockingly good for the Rangers through 10 starts with a 2.64 ERA and 1.13 WHIP but they are just 5-5 in those games including 2-3 on the road where his numbers go up considerably. The Rangers are 1-6 in his last seven starts following a quality outing in his last start. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 off a divisional win as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 32-8 (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (924) Los Angeles Angels |
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05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. This is an elimination game for the Bucks which have lost three straight games for the first time this season and after looking invincible for the opening part of the postseason, they are looking vulnerable for the first time. Giannis Antetokounmpo was an unstoppable force that drove the conference's most efficient offense for 93 games. The Toronto defense has turned the Bucks into an offensively-challenged group that cannot score in the half-court. While all of the emphasis has been placed on Antetokounmpo, there is way more to it. Khris Middleton scored six points on nine shots Thursday night. Eric Bledsoe was five-of-23 from the field in Toronto. The Bucks have no chance if those two players are going to have that kind of production and we do not see this happening for another game with everything on the line. With this all being said, the line value is simply too strong for Milwaukee as it was favored by three points the last game played here and is now seeing a 5.5-point line shift into Game Six. Milwaukee is 16-4 ATS off a loss as a favorite this season while Toronto is 6-17 ATS after covering three of its last four games against the spread this season. 10* (511) Milwaukee Bucks |
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05-24-19 | Diamondbacks -122 v. Giants | Top | 18-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Arizona got swept in San Diego as the pitching did its part but the bats got nothing going to make it five straight losses for the Diamondbacks. They are still two games over .500 on the road and after having yesterday off, Arizona looks to improve upon its 6-0 record in its last six games following an off day. The Giants have not been playing well all season as they are in last place in the National League West, seven games under .500, following losses in three of four games against the Braves. That dropped San Francisco to 10-15 at home and going back, the Giants are 8-22 in their last 30 home games against teams with a winning road record. Robbie Ray gets the ball for Arizona and he is having a solid season with a 3.25 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 starts. He has allowed more than three runs only once and that was against the Braves, the best hitting team in the National League. Arizona is 15-4 against the money line in his last 19 National League road games against teams with a batting average of .255 or worse. Drew Pomeranz counters for the Giants and he has struggled to a 5.66 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in eight starts. His numbers improve slightly at home but the Giants have given him just 2.00 rpg in three outings. This is a good chance for the offense to get out of its slump as Arizona is hitting .277 against left-handed pitching including .271 on the road. Here, we play on all National League favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 58-13 (81.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (961) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. The series heads back to Milwaukee for Game Five as the home team has held serve through the first four games. Milwaukee has been a force on home court during the postseason, winning straight up and ATS in six of seven, including five victories by 21 or more points. While momentum may have shifted, we feel the Bucks swing it back their way tonight. Two factors led to the Raptors tying this series up in Game Four and the Bucks need to reverse both. The Milwaukee bench outscored Toronto 130-78 through the first three games of the series but it was the Raptors bench, Norman Powell scoring 18 points, Serge Ibaka adding 17 points and Fred VanVleet tossing in 13 points, that decided Game Four and it will be up to the Bucks reserves to get back to the way they were in the first two games. Second, Game Four was the Bucks worst defensive game (120 points allowed on 96 possessions) of the postseason, and that was the focus of head coach Mike Budenholzer's frustration Tuesday night. The league's No. 1 defense simply cannot have the same kinds of breakdowns going forward. Milwaukee is 16-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season and here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss of 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (508) Milwaukee Bucks |
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05-23-19 | White Sox v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Thursday Runline Destruction. Houston had a seven-game home winning streak snapped with a 9-4 loss last night as Gerrit Cole got lit up for six runs on seven hits in five innings. We expect the Astros to bounce back tonight and while we have no interest in laying a moneyline of this size, we will be going with the runline where there is a lot of value. The recent seven-game home winning streak saw the Astros win all seven games by at least two runs and on the season, of their 18 home wins, 14 have come by more than one run. The White Sox snapped a three-game losing streak and the nine runs scored was the first time they scored more than four runs in seven straight games where they plated a total of just 13 runs. The starting rotation has been dreadful for the White Sox with a lone bright spot being Lucas Giolito and his 3.35 ERA. He is perfect on the road with a 4-0 record and a 2.42 ERA but this will be his biggest challenge as the Astros lead all of baseball in home average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The White Sox are 5-13 in his last 18 starts against teams with a winning record. Houston counters with Corbin Martin who struggled last time out after a strong Major League debut. That last game was in Boston however and Chicago is hitting just .243 on the road against righties. 10* (916) Houston Astros -1.5 Runs |
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05-22-19 | Marlins v. Tigers -109 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Miami won the opener of this three-game series last night 5-4 in 11 innings to increase its season-best winning streak to four games. The run is certainly a surprising one as the Marlins came in 10-31 including losses in seven straight and 10 of 11 where they averaged just 1.7 rpg prior to this run. The Marlins are 18-42 in their last 60 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. It has been a horrible homestand for Detroit as it has lost its first seven games. The pitching has gotten destroyed by allowing an average of 8.1 rpg during this skid but we expect a bounce back tonight. Daniel Norris is coming off his worst outing statistically this season as he gave up six runs on seven hits, including two homers, over 5.1 innings against Oakland on Friday. The Marlins have scored just 45 runs on the road which is by far the fewest in the league and the are 7-21 in their last 28 road games against left-handed starters. Miami counters with Jose Urena and while he is coming off a pair of quality starts, he has been inconsistent all season, allowing four runs or more in four of his nine starts. He is getting just 0.7 rpg of support on the road and Miami has dropped his last four outings. Here, we play on home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that are batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games going up against an opponent that is batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 48-12 (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Detroit Tigers |
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05-22-19 | A's v. Indians +115 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. We lost with the Indians last night, dropping the first two games of this series and they will be out this afternoon to avoid the sweep in what is another positive situation with value. While Cleveland was a slight favorite last night, it is an underdog at home today despite the favorable home/road splits and going back, the Indians are 16-5 in their last 21 games after losing the first two games of a series. Oakland has now won five straight games but remains nine games behind the Astros in the American League West. Frankie Montas is a big reason this line is what it is as he has put together a fine start to the season with a 2.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first nine starts. His numbers are the same on the road but Oakland is just 2-3 in his five road starts with the wins coming against Baltimore and Detroit. Cleveland turns to Jefry Rodriguez and he has been very solid as well with a 3.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through five starts. He has already beaten Oakland once and here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .260 going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better, starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 52-23 (69.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (964) Cleveland Indians |
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05-21-19 | Bucks -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. We had Toronto in Game Three and it was a fortunate cover that took double-overtime to complete and that only proved that the Bucks are dominating the postseason for a reason. Milwaukee could be ahead 3-0 if it had shot better than 14-44 from three-point range. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 12 points, his worst scoring night in four months, on 5-16 shooting, with eight turnovers. He was still just one of only two starters that finished on the plus side as his numbers were actually better than Kris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe who both went 3-16 from the floor, including 1-6 from long range and had a combined eight assists against eight turnovers. The Bucks have to remain positive as their best player had an off night and a lot went wrong at both ends of the court and they still had a win well within their reach. They have been in this position 23 times this season and they are 22-1 following a loss while going 19-4 against the number. Shockingly, that one loss came against Phoenix of all teams but there was no Middleton at the time and 17 of those wins came by double-digits. Included in that record is a 12-2 ATS mark coming off a road loss. 10* (503) Milwaukee Bucks |
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05-21-19 | Sharks +150 v. Blues | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN JOSE SHARKS for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. St. Louis is coming off its most complete game of the postseason as it shut out the Sharks 5-0 on the road Sunday to take a 3-2 lead in this series and apparently, the linesmakers are leaning toward that most people are thinking this series is over based on this number. The Blues were slight underdogs so the fact they are favored is no surprise but by how much is as they closed at -135 in their last home game and are now as high as -170 in some places for Game Six. The Sharks are 4-0 in elimination games this postseason, as they trailed the Golden Knights three games to one in the first round and were tied 3-3 with the Avalanche in the second. One can argue that Jordan Binnington is coming off a spectacular game where he put up a shutout and while taking nothing away from him, he only faced 21 shots. Here, we play on teams against the money line in the second half of the season that are averaging three or more gpg on the season, after getting shutout in their previous game. This situation is 64-29 (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (25) San Jose Sharks |
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05-21-19 | A's v. Indians -124 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. This line has come down quite a bit from the opening number as the value is squarely on the Indians now. Cleveland took three of four against Baltimore to end last weekend but lost the opener of this series against Oakland last night as it tried to rally from a 3-0 deficit but came up short. The Indians are still 14-9 at home which is the fourth best home record in the American League. Cleveland is 39-16 in its last 55 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Oakland has won four straight games as it swept the Tigers and despite the four straight road wins, Oakland is 9-15 for the season on the highway. Going back, the A's are 2-5 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The A's look to remain hot against Trevor Bauer, who aims to rebound after allowing two homers and a career-high-tying seven earned runs Thursday against the Orioles. It was the second time in three outings he yielded seven earned runs. Despite this, he has a 3.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the season. And he has dominated Oakland the last two seasons with a 1.32 ERA. The A's are 7-19 in their last 26 road games against a right-handed starters. Oakland counters with Chris Bassitt who has been strong through five starts but he has yet to face a strong offensive team. 10* (914) Cleveland Indians |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. Portland is facing elimination and with its back against the wall at home, we should see a big rebound tonight. The Blazers blew an 18-point lead in Game Three, eventually losing by 11 points and are down 3-0 in the series and no team in NBA history has lost the first three games of a playoff series and come back to win which is the big reason they have gone from a 2.5-point favorite to a 3.5-point underdog one game later. The one thing Portland needs to avoid one bad period. In all three games this series the Warriors have had a dominating quarter where they scored at least 15 points more than the Blazers. Most games between two quality opponents have some ebbs and flows, but a 15-point differential in a single quarter is just too much. The Blazers missed 13 free throws in Game Three on top of it, making just 20 of 33. Playing without Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins seems like the sort of factor that would have extended the series, but instead it has served as a rallying cry of sorts for the remaining Warriors. However, Golden St. will be without Andre Iguodala tonight which puts its limited depth in question yet again. Here ,we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two teams allowing between 43.5 and 45.percent shooting, after three straight games allowing 47 percent shooting or higher. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (502) Portland Trail Blazers |
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05-20-19 | Phillies v. Cubs -117 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Chicago took two of three in Washington over the weekend to make it a 3-3 roadtrip and keep its 1.5-game lead in the National League Central. The Cubs head back home where they are 15-6 on the season which is the third best home record in baseball behind the Astros and Dodgers. The Cubs are 17-6 when playing against a team with a winning record this season while going 21-7 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Philadelphia swept the Rockies over the weekend to increase its lead in the National League East to 2.5 games over the Braves. While this is clearly a talented team, the Phillies have benefitted from an easy schedule as 28 of their 46 games have taken place at home where they are 18-10 compared to 9-9 on the road. Going back, the Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 series openers. Jake Arietta gets the ball for Philadelphia and he is coming off his second straight start where he allowed four earned runs and we made the mistake of playing on him last time out. His home and road splits are nearly identical and the Phillies are 0-4 in his last four road starts against teams with a winning record. Yu Darvish counters for the Cubs and while he has been inconsistent, he is coming off one of his best starts which he can carry going forward. 10* (954) Chicago Cubs |
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05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO RAPTORS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. Like Portland, Toronto is in must win mode after falling behind 2-0 in this series but after the Blazers blew an 18-point lead, we do not expect a repeat from the Raptors. Toronto is 37-11 at home and feasibly could have this series tied and home court advantage on its side. The Bucks, showing rust after a week off, needed a fourth-quarter surge to win Game One 108-100 on Wednesday. In Game Two on Friday, they dominated from the tip in a 125-103 victory to take a 2-0 series lead. The Raptors, after trailing by 28 points Friday, made a push to draw to within 13 in the third quarter and that was encouraging to see while the game was thought to be over. For the Bucks, the Friday victory continues a dominating run through the postseason, lifting them to 10-1 SU and ATS so far in the playoffs and with Milwaukee being the underdog, the public is all over the Bucks. Toronto 10-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games this season while Milwaukee is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 games off three or more consecutive home wins. Here, we play on home favorites revenging a loss of 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 53-22 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (550) Toronto Raptors |
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05-19-19 | Twins v. Mariners -105 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Minnesota put up 18 runs last night as the offense continues to dominate the Mariners pitching in this series, outscoring Seattle 36-11 in the first three victories. The Twins have now won five straight games to maintain a 505-game lead over the Indians in the American League Central. We expect those bats to cool off today however as they are facing the best Seattle starter in the rotation. Seattle opened this homestand with a pair of wins against Oakland and desperately needs a win before heading out on a six-game roadtrip. Yusei Kikuchi gets the ball for the Mariners and his 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP both lead the teams among starters. He is coming off a no-decision in his last start against Oakland, which he allowed three runs on five hits over six innings against Oakland. That came after an impressive 10-1 victory in New York where he held the Yankees to just one run and three hits over 7.2 innings. He has tossed three straight quality outings. Kyle Gibson counters for Minnesota and he has had his share of struggles on the road, posting a 4.44 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five starts but has benefited from big run support. Here, we play against teams that are batting .333 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 0.80 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 37-14 (72.5 percent over the last five seasons. 10* (928) Seattle Mariners |
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05-19-19 | Blues +117 v. Sharks | Top | 5-0 | Win | 117 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Sunday Breakaway. St. Louis won Game Four in a must win situation to even the series and avoid a massive 3-1 hole and this game can also be put up in the must win category for both sides but we like the momentum the Blues bring today. Feasibly they could be up 3-1 at this point if not for the missed call in overtime in Game Three on home ice. The yare 6-2 on the road in the postseason with a lot of that due to defense. Rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington stole the show on Friday, setting a franchise record with his 10th playoff win as a rookie. Blues forward Sammy Blais is expected to play after taking a Brent Burns slap shot off the foot in Game 4, according to the St. Louis Dispatch. Blais leads all players in the series with 24 hits. For the Sharks, there is still no update on Erik Karlsson, who did not play for about nine minutes in the third period in Game Four and this could be a very big deal. Karlsson missed 27 of San Jose's final 33 games in the regular season because of a groin injury. He is clearly not 100 percent. San Jose is 11-20 in its last 31 road games off a road loss by one goal while the Blues are 23-6 in their last 29 games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (21) St. Louis Blues |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. We have been on Portland the first two games of this series and the Blazers head home in what should be a tied series as they gave Game Two away to the Warriors. If Golden St. can secure a split here, this series is likely over and it is up to the Blazers to keep hope alive after Game Three which is typically the time that home teams do respond after losing the first two games on the road. This is a pretty big deal in Portland tonight as Game Three will be the first conference final game in Portland since 2000. The Blazers lost that series to the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers in seven games. Golden St. overcame a 15-point deficit at halftime, which was the second-largest comeback in postseason franchise history so there has to be some letdown coming from that as the Warriors hit the road where they are 4-2 in the postseason but could easily be 2-4. The Blazers tied for the third best home record in the NBA during the regular season while going 5-1 in the postseason and they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Golden St. is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games off two or more consecutive home wins and here, we play on home favorites revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off two or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 90-46 ATS (66.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (548) Portland Trail Blazers |
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05-18-19 | Astros v. Red Sox +101 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. We lost a tough one last night with the Red Sox in a low scoring game that Houston stole in the eighth inning. Rick Porcello entered the eighth inning having retired seven consecutive batters and with 91 pitches on his ledger but gave up a two-run home run to cement the Astros ninth straight win. Boston comes in as an underdog once again, albeit not nearly as large as Friday, but that is where the value is once again as the Houston winning streak is playing the biggest part in this number. Despite the loss, Boston has rebounded from a bad start to the season as it is now two games over .500 after a 17-8 run over its last 25 games and the Red Sox are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss. The Astros have the best home record in baseball but they are just three games over .500 on the road and going back, they are 2-5 in their last seven road games against teams with a winning record. Corbin Martin is coming off a successful Major League debut as he limited Texas to just two runs on three hits in 5.1 innings while striking out nine. That was at home however and now he is making his first ever road start against one of the best offenses in baseball. Hector Velazquez counters for Boston and while he has been limited in his pitch count, he is coming off his best start and was stretched to his longest outing of the season which is very encouraging. 10* (974) Boston Red Sox |
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05-17-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO RAPTORS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. We won with Milwaukee in Game One as it overcame a deficit most of the game with a big fourth quarter to take the series opener. Toronto got 14 of its 17 points in the fourth quarter from Kyle Lowry as the rest of the team was 0-15 from the floor and that was the big difference as the Raptors actually held the lead with three and a half minutes left. Another significant part was the play of Brook Lopez for the Bucks as he scored a playoff-career-best 29 points and grabbed 11 rebounds. To put that into perspective, he had scored a total of 27 points in his previous five games combined. Do not expect a repeat performance.. Toronto has to knock down some shots from deep as after going 10-22 in the first half, it was just 5-20 in the second half but the opportunities will be there considering no team gave up more three-point attempts per game than the Bucks this season. While the offense has struggled, fortunately for the Raptors, they have also proven largely effective at containing opposing shooters when playing on the road, allowing just 101 ppg over their past seven games. Here, we play against home favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better when leading in a playoff series, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1996. 10* (545) Toronto Raptors |
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05-17-19 | Sharks v. Blues -136 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Friday Breakaway. St. Louis lost a brutal game on Wednesday in overtime as it fell behind 2-0 but rallied to take a 4-3 lead after two periods. The Blues then allowed the tying goal with a minute remaining in overtime and then lost in overtime with a controversial goal on a hand pass that should have been overturned but is not reviewable on replay. All four referees missed it, marking another blown call in a postseason that has been defined by refereeing controversies and officiating errors. On Thursday, it was reported that the NHL would remove the four on-ice officials that missed the hand-pass in Game Three. That would make four referees and two linesmen eliminated from postseason assignments as a result of costly errors that have benefited the Sharks. If there is any way to get motivated, that is it. The Blues attempted to turn the page quickly in their locker room, and that was the message echoed from the coach so we will see a big effort from then tonight which has now turned into a must win situation. The home teams has won the prior six meetings before the last two games so home ice has played a significant role in this season series. San Jose is 0-5 when leading in a playoff series this season and here, we play on favorites against the money line that are revenging a loss of one goal, off a home loss. This situation is 214-112 (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (18) St. Louis Blues |
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05-17-19 | Rockies v. Phillies -117 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Philadelphia has seen its lead in the National League East shrink to a game and a half over the Braves following an off day on Thursday. The Phillies didn't have it in the final three games against the Brewers as they were outscored 22-6 in the three losses following a series-opening win. This is the second worst three-game stretch for Philadelphia as it was held to two runs in three straight losses in late April and responded with a 6-0 win next time out and going back, it is 17-3 in its last 20 home games after batting .200 or worse over a three-game span. Colorado lost in Boston on Wednesday in extra innings as a five-run rally was for naught. The Rockies have been playing better after an awful start to the season but they are still inconsistent on the road and they are 2-5 in their last seven games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Phillies turn to Cole Irvin for his second start of the season. He was terrific in his major league debut last Sunday at Kansas City, tossing seven strong innings and allowing five hits and one run. The Rockies counter with Jon Gray who is struggling after a great start to the season. He has a 7.16 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over his last three starts and has allowed 10 runs over 10.1 innings in his last two road starts and in two career starts at Philadelphia, he has an 8.71 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Here, we play on National League teams averaging 5.0 or better and with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 75-35 (68.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (904) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-16-19 | Pirates v. Padres -127 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Padres have lost three straight games to finish their most recent roadtrip at 1-4 and they head back home where they have won six of their last nine games. The starting pitching has kept San Diego within reach of the Dodgers in the National League West where it is six games back as the starters have posted a 3.27 ERA which is one of the better marks in baseball. Going back, San Diego is 11-2 in its last 13 games after getting shutout to a divisional rival. The Pirates lost their series finale in Arizona 11-1 and with the exception of a couple solid efforts, the pitching has been brutal as they have allowed 6.7 rpg through the first seven games of this current roadtrip. For San Diego, Eric Lauer will be looking to rebound from the worst start of his young career while seeking to snap a personal three-game losing streak. He allowed eight runs in three innings but that came in Colorado and prior to that, he had a 4.30 ERA, which is not great by any stretch, but did have a 1.30 WHIP through his first seven starts. The Pirates are 0-5 in their last five games against left-handed starter. Trevor Williams counters for the Pirates and he has not been sharp as he has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 19 innings and has had a hard time keeping the ball on the ground. Williams, who is a native of San Diego, is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against the Padres, giving up eight runs on eight hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings. 10* (960) San Diego Padres |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. We lost with Portland in Game One as it could not have played worse but was not out of it until late. Portland went 7-28 from long range while committing 21 turnovers yet the Blazers were still in this game leading up to the final quarter and we can expect a much better performance tonight. The backcourt of the Blazers was horrible as both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum both struggled which has been atypical this postseason as one or the other has picked up the slack if the other has been struggling. Lillard scored 19 points on just 4 of 12 shooting while McCollum was only 7 of 19 from the floor and scored 17 points. A lot of the poor play on both ends of the floor can be blamed on the quick turnaround from the seven-game series against Denver while Golden St. enjoyed an extra two days off. Now, the time off is back even and do not foresee the Warriors hitting 51.5 percent from long range once again. But this is not the first time the Blazers, who lost Game One to the Nuggets in the conference semifinals, have been in this position as they rebounded to win Game Two. Portland is 8-0 ATS revenging a road loss of 10 points or more this season while Golden St. is 9-19 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season. 10* (543) Portland Trail Blazers |
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05-16-19 | Bruins v. Hurricanes +100 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA HURRICANES for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. Carolina failed for us on Tuesday as the Bruins have now won six straight games, delivering the Hurricanes a home loss for the first time in the playoffs with the 2-1 victory in Game Three. The difference overall has been goaltending although Curtis McElhinney was solid last time out but the real issue has been special teams as Carolina is 1-12 on the power play while Boston is 5-12. McElhinney made 29 saves in his first start since the second round, when he replaced an injured Petr Mrazek during the second period of Game Two against the Islanders. He made 17 saves on 17 shots to allow Carolina to rally for a 2-1 victory before winning Games Three and Four in the sweep of the Islanders, each by a 5-2 score. While not official, he is pretty much guaranteed the start tonight after a solid effort last time out. The Bruins are not out of the woods yet as they were forced to seven games against the Maple Leafs in the first round, then trailed the best-of-seven series against the Blue Jackets 2-1 before winning in six. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is -100 to -150 after allowing two goals or less in three straight games going up against an opponent after scoring two goals or less in three straight games. This situation is 23-7 (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (16) Carolina Hurricanes |
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05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. Toronto hits the court after just two days off from its last second miracle win over Philadelphia that looked destined to go to overtime. The Raptors won the final four games against Orlando in the opening round but struggled to put the Sixers away in the 336 minutes played and now they face a tougher challenge. Milwaukee took three of four games against the Raptors during the regular season and are now playing at a higher level. Only one of the Bucks nine games (Game 3 in Boston) has been within five points in the last five minutes, though that was only when the Celtics got to within five with just 11 seconds left. Seven of their eight wins have been by double-digits and five of the eight have been by 21 points or more. Milwaukee's reserves remained significant as it breezed through its first two playoff rounds, but Toronto has had limited contributions from its backups. By relying so heavily on a shortened rotation in a grueling series with the Sixers, the Raptors might show some fatigue here. The Bucks, meanwhile, not only have had a week off, but have confidence in their reserves. Here, we play on home favorites that are averaging 83 or more shots per game on the season, after allowing opponent to shoot 35 percent or less. This situation is 53-22 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (532) Milwaukee Bucks |
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05-15-19 | Sharks v. Blues -140 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. The Blues were able to steal Game Two of this series and seize home ice heading back to St. Louis. They have won 17 of their last 23 games at home while going 7-2 in their last nine home games against teams with a losing road record. St. Louis was able to control the San Jose offense in Game Two by allowing only two goals and going back, it is now 21-6 in its last 27 games against teams averaging three or more gpg. The Blues are receiving depth production, while many of their star players, notably Brayden Schenn and Vladimir Tarasenko, have been held in check, a big reason St. Louis is 1-for-26 on the power play over the past eight games. The opposite has taken place for the Sharks as their top line is producing but they are getting hardly anything from their bottom six forwards, especially the third line. At home, the Blues are allowing only 2.45 gpg which is a full goal less than what San Jose allows on the road. The Sharks are 3-7 in their last 10 road games while going 1-5 in their last six playoff games as underdogs of +110 to +150. 10* (14) St. Louis Blues |
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05-15-19 | Brewers v. Phillies -108 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Sweet Spot. Milwaukee snapped a three-game slide with a 6-1 win last night behind a solid effort from Brandon Woodruff as he allowed just one hit over six innings. The Brewers remain 2.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central but they are still two games under .500 on the road and despite the win last night, the Brewers are 2-6 in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Philadelphia is still 3.5 games in front of the Mets and Braves for first place in the National League East. The Phillies are 15-8 at home which is the fifth best home record in baseball yet are laying a very short price tonight. The Phillies are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. Jake Arrieta looks to bounce back from a poor outing in Kansas City where he allowed four runs including three home runs. He opened the season with five straight quality outings and has five in his seven starts and going back, the Phillies are 4-1 in his last five home starts against teams with a winning record. The Brewers will hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez, who is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts but he has yet to post a quality outing. Philadelphia is 26-10 in its last 36 home games against left-handed starters. 10* (906) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-14-19 | Bruins v. Hurricanes -112 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA HURRICANES for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. We were on Carolina in Game Two which was an awful call as the Hurricanes fell behind 6-0 and fell into a 2-0 hole in this series. The series shifts to Carolina for Games Three and Four and it is laying a short number to get back into the series for at least a little bit. The big thing that is being taken away from the first two games is the goaltending problems from Petr Mrazek as he allowed 10 goals but it goes beyond that and head coach Rod Brind'Amour reiterated that and if other aspects were better, Mrazek would not have been put in that spot. Whether he or Curtis McElhinney gets the start tonight matters none on making this bet as both are capable to keep the Bruins in check especially knowing this game is back on their home ice. Carolina overcame this same situation in its first series against the Capitals, losing the first two games on the road only to come back and win four of the next five games. Carolina is 14-5 as a home favorite of -150 or less this season and here, we play against road teams against the money line after two straight wins by three goals or more going up against an opponent after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game. This situation is 38-12 (76 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (12) Carolina Hurricanes |
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05-14-19 | Cardinals -121 v. Braves | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals are coming off a rough homestand where they went 2-5 including losses in their last three games against the Pirates and they are now three games over .500 on the season. St. Louis is 3.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central and going back, it is 6-2 in its last eight games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Atlanta meanwhile has won three straight games to conclude a 6-4 roadtrip. The Braves are just one game over .500 overall and right at .500 at home after starting the season 4-0 at SunTrust Park. Going back, the Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 games following an off day. Mike Foltynewicz gets the ball for Atlanta and he has struggled out of the gate following opening the season on the injury list. He has a 5.94 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through his first three starts, none of which have been quality outings. He has allowed five home runs after allowing just 17 home runs in 31 starts last season. The Braves are 1-7 in his last eight home starts against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals counter with Jack Flaherty who has been inconsistent this season but his command remain dominant and he possesses a 43:13 K:BB ratio. While his ERA is 4.32, his WHIP is 1.27 which is a better indication of how he has been pitching. 10* (957) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-13-19 | Blues +118 v. Sharks | Top | 4-2 | Win | 118 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Monday Breakaway. Following a San Jose win in St. Louis back in February of 2018, the home team has won the last six meetings in this series including all four this season, most recently Game One on Saturday 6-3 by the Sharks. We were on San Jose and while the Sharks did hold a majority of control on Saturday night, the Blues carved out their own chances in the middle to late portions of the third period and they will make the proper adjustments tonight. One thing they need to tighten up is mistakes as the Blues had 11 turnovers in the game, and four of the Sharks' goals were the result of blunders from St. Louis defensemen. The Sharks have done this before, winning their previous Game 1s on home ice by a combined score of 10-4 before losing Game Two to both the Golden Knights and Avalanche. The Blues need to get back to themselves as with very few exceptions, the best players were either awful or nonexistent while he best players for the Sharks came up huge and that was the difference. The Blues are 7-3 in their last 10 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (7) St. Louis Blues |
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05-13-19 | Astros v. Tigers +145 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our NBA Monday Sweet Spot. Houston is riding a five-game winning streak while winning eight of nine including a pair of blowouts of Texas over the weekend by a combined score of 26-9. The Astros improved to 16-4 at home but they are just 10-11 on the road yet they are a significant favorite here. The Tigers won in Minnesota yesterday to split the series with the Twins and they head back home where they are 9-8 on the season. The Tigers will go with their ace, left-hander Matthew Boyd, in the series opener. Boyd has posted seven consecutive quality starts, lasting at least six innings and allowing no more than three runs. He's 4-1 with a 2.58 ERA during that span. On the season, he has a stellar 63:00 K:BB ration and even though he is facing one of the best offenses in baseball, Detroit is 7-0 in his last seven starts as a home underdog of +125 to +175. The Astros will counter with Brad Peacock. He delivered a stellar performance against Kansas City on Wednesday, tossing seven scoreless innings and striking out 12. It was his third quality start of the season but he has followed up his last two with horrible outings, allowing 12 runs over 8.2 innings. The strikeout total from the last game is misleading as came in with 14 strikeout total over his previous four starts. Here, we play against teams that are batting .333 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 0.80 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 37-11 (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (908) Detroit Tigers |
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05-12-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. Philadelphia avoided elimination with an 11-point win over Toronto on Thursday to force a Game Seven and while the majority will be on the Raptors, this has the makings of a classic Game Seven which gives the value to the Sixers and the big number. Philadelphia did win here once in the series and while it was blown out in the other two games, a healthy Joel Embiid will make a difference from those two games. He is coming off his best game of the series and while his stat line looked average, in the 35 minutes he was on the floor, he had a plus-minus rating of +40, which means that the Sixers outscored the Raptors by 40 points with him patrolling the paint. His defensive presence goes a long way. Both teams might play seven-man rotations, with the schedule, two full days off between Games Six and Seven, and then two full days off before Game One of the conference finals, allowing the starters to play extended minutes and this should favor the Sixers. Toronto 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games revenging a loss of 10 points or more while the Sixers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (521) Philadelphia 76ers |
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05-12-19 | Reds v. Giants -101 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. San Francisco looks to avoid the series sweep on Sunday and we are getting a great number in a pitching mismatch. The Giants rallied from a 3-0 deficit yesterday to take the lead only to allow two more run for their third straight loss. The Reds have won three straight games behind some solid pitching as they have allowed just four runs over those three games but this is a chance for the Giants to bust out. The Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. To his credit, Tyler Mahle has pitched well this season with a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in seven starts but he is winless and the Reds are 1-6 in those games. This is because he is getting just 1.29 rpg of support and we do not expect that to change here as Cincinnati is hitting just .194 against left-handed pitching on the road. Going back, the Reds are 0-8 in his last eight road starts. Madison Bumgarner may not be the dominating pitcher he once was, but he is pitching better than his 3.99 ERA indicates as he has a 1.15 WHIP to go along with a 51:8 K:BB ratio. The Giants are 19-9 in his last 28 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (958) San Francisco Giants |
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05-12-19 | Hurricanes +140 v. Bruins | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA HURRICANES for our NHL Sunday Breakaway. We won with Boston in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals and we are shifting over to the road team in Game Two as Carolina can take over home ice with a win and split in Boston. The Bruins won 5-2 in Game One on Thursday, scoring four straight goals after trailing 2-1 entering the third period to end Carolina's six-game postseason winning streak. Carolina had its worst penalty kill game since Game Five against Washington as it allowed two goals in five man-down situations. This is a big area for success as the Bruins power play is an NHL-best 30.0 percent (12-for-40) in the playoffs. It also was unable to maintain its relentless forecheck to pressure opponents into defensive-zone turnovers that lead to scoring chances. We saw it in the second period but the Hurricanes were not able to keep that going in the final period and they need to win this the entire game, which they are more than capable of. Carolina is 12-4 this season revenging a loss of three or more goals and here, we play on road teams against the money line that are revenging a road loss by three goals or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-21 (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (5) Carolina Hurricanes |
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05-11-19 | Blues v. Sharks -123 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN JOSE SHARKS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. San Jose finished the regular season with just 11 regulation losses at home which was tied for fourth fewest in the NHL and the Sharks are 6-2 at home after the first two rounds of the playoffs. Any amount of rest is an advantage this deep into the postseason and this one actually works out for San Jose. This will be the Sharks 15th game in 32 days but San Jose is starting the series at home, and the Blues themselves played a six-game series in the first round against Winnipeg and just completed an emotional seven-game series win over Dallas. San Jose is back to full strength as well as Joe Pavelski, who missed all of their series against the Avalanche until Game Seven, made an emotional return and an immediate impact, scoring a goal and assisting on another. While St. Louis goalie Jordan Binnington is the real deal, San Jose is not at a disadvantage here as Martin Jones has rebounded from a rocky season and turbulent start to the playoffs, winning seven of his last 10 games in net and allowing two or fewer goals in seven of those games. The Sharks are 5-0 in their last five games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and here, we play against road underdogs of +100 to +150 after allowing one goal or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a win by one goal in their previous game. This situation is 32-6 (84.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (4) San Jose Sharks |
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05-11-19 | Phillies -125 v. Royals | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Kansas City picked up a rare win last night behind a strong effort from Homer Bailey to move to 14-25 on the season. Winning streaks have been few and far between for the Royals as they are 1-6 in their last seven games following a win and pitching remains the big issue as they have a 4.99 ERA which is fifth highest in baseball. Going back, the Royals are 1-8 in their last nine games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Philadelphia had a two-game winning streak halted with the loss last night but still has a three-game lead in the National League East over the Braves. They have not exactly been dominating on the road but that is keeping this number down with a big pitching edge. The Phillies are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. Zach Eflin gets the ball for the Phillies and with the exception of one bad start in Miami, he has been solid this season. He has a 3.00 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in seven starts and is coming off a pair of quality outings where he allowed two runs over 16 innings. It was a good start for Brad Keller but he has posted a 5.82 ERA over his last four starts and his control is a real issue with a 36:28 K:BB ratio. The Royals are 1-5 in his last six starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (929) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-10-19 | Reds v. Giants +135 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Giants lost a tough one yesterday as they nearly rallied from a 7-0 deficit after two innings but eventually fell 12-11 to conclude a 3-3 roadtrip. San Francisco heads home where it is 7-9 but is catching a significant number here that is based solely on starting pitching. The Giants are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss. Cincinnati snapped a two-game slide with a win at Oakland yesterday but it still sits just 7-14 in the road. The Reds offense has been horrible on the road as they are hitting just .190 which is dead last in baseball. The Reds are 0-5 in their last five games following a win. The reason for this line is because of Luis Castillo who has turned into the ace of the Cincinnati rotation. He has a 1.97 ERA and 0.97 WHIP through his first eight starts but the Reds are just 4-4 in those games. Those numbers increase to a 2.55 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the road where the Reds are 1-2, giving him just 3.3 rpg of production. The starting rotation for the Giants has been underperforming for the most part and a big piece of that has been Dereck Rodriguez following two straight poor outings. However, prior to those, he had a 3.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP after his first five starts and he will be out for revenge after Cincinnati tagged him for eight runs last time out. 10* (964) San Francisco Giants |
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05-10-19 | Warriors +7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. This line is a big overreaction to the Kevin Durant injury as Golden St. is the biggest underdog it has been in a long time. How long? The 7.5 number is the largest Golden St. has seen with Steph Curry in the lineup and Steve Kerr as head coach ever, a span of 440 games dating back to 2014, including the postseason. This is a very interesting scenario with Durant on the sidelines as the perception is that the Warriors are not as good without him and while that may be the case on paper based on who he is and what he brings on a nightly basis, the Warriors are 26-1 in their last 27 games when Curry plays but Durant does not. That is not a knock on Durant by any means but it is just the way Golden St. adjusts when he is not on the floor. The Warriors bench is thin and that is the only difference between now and the team before Durant even arrived, the one that won 73 regular season games and were a layup away from two NBA Championships. Obviously, Houston has a shot to extend this series to it length but there is too much value in this line to not consider the Warriors covering and even winning outright. Here, we play against teams off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. this situation is 99-44 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (519) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-09-19 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -147 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON BRUINS for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. Boston hosts Carolina for Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals and it has a big advantage from a momentum standpoint. The Bruins fell behind 2-1 against Columbus before reeling off three straight wins to take the series and comes into Thursday with the perfect amount of time off since the Game Six win on Monday. While many will point out that the Hurricanes have won six straight games to possess the momentum, that last victory came last Friday so any momentum from the winning streak has been lost. The Bruins momentum is big for goalie Tuukka Rask who is playing the best hockey of his career right now. He brings a .938 save percentage and 2.02 GAA in 13 playoff games and overall is 35-17-6 on the season. On the other side, the Bruins are in the conference finals, and their best line has not even had one of those sustained runs of dominance that they are fully capable of going on at any moment so that is a big reason for optimism. Carolina is 5-21 in its last 26 road games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 while the Bruins are 23-9 in their last 32 home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play against road teams after six or more consecutive wins, playing three or less games in 10 days. This situation is 35-15 (70 percent) since 1996. 10* (2) Boston Bruins |
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05-09-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -135 | Top | 4-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals remain home after losing two of three against the Phillies which includes losses in the last two games where they managed just one run total. They have lost six of their last seven games and are now in third place in the National League Central, a game and a half behind the Cubs. The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record. Pittsburgh is a game over .500 following a 3-2 homestand but it is -28 in scoring differential which is tied for second worst in the National League. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last four games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Michael Wacha takes the hill for the Cardinals with a great opportunity to get back on track. He has put up some average numbers this season but taking a look at who he has faced explains a lot as he has taken on Milwaukee twice, Washington, Chicago and Los Angeles. He now faced the second lowest scoring offense in baseball. Even more in his defense, he has allowed three runs or less in four of his six starts. Since 2017, he has made three home starts against Pittsburgh and posted a 0.40 ERA. Joe Musgrove opened the season with five straight quality starts but is coming off a poor effort against Oakland, allowing seven runs in just 2.2 innings. In two career starts in St. Louis, Musgrove has allowed nine runs over 12 innings. 10* (906) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-08-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -6 | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. The series heads back to Golden St. tied at 2-2 with the home team winning each of the first four games. All have been close however as the biggest win came by six points which has been good for Houston bettors as the Rockets have covered three of the last four games. While many will feel that the close margins of victory will continue, we could see our first relatively easy cover for the Warriors tonight. One way to back this is simply looking at the last game where Golden St. played a horrible game based on efficiency, got nothing from Klay Thompson or Andre Iguodala and nothing from the bench yet had to shots to tie the game late. If the Warriors play the way they are capable of and get even normal production from the key pieces, they win easy and that is what is predicted tonight. Expect Golden St. to be more physical as it is no secret it has been getting pushed around and even head Steve Kerr called his team out on that. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games playing on one day of rest while the Warriors are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off two or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 64-28 ATS (69.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (512) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-08-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks -136 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN JOSE SHARKS for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. San Jose and Colorado have alternated wins and losses through the first six games of this series and we expect that to continue tonight after Colorado tied this series up at 3-3 following a 4-3 overtime win on Monday. In addition to having the final game of the series at home, the Sharks might get captain Joe Pavelski back as he has not played since suffering an undisclosed injury when his head hit the ice after being cross-checked in Game Seven against Vegas. This would be a big boost for an offense that has been up and down in this series and against a Colorado defense allowing 3.11 gpg on the road. Additionally, being back on home ice is critical as the Sharks are averaging twice as many goals at home (28 total in seven games) as they have on the road (12 total in six games) in the playoffs. More importantly, the San Jose defense needs to step it up on home ice as its 3.15 playoff GAA is worst among the teams still alive in the postseason. The Sharks have given up four or more goals six times in 13 games. Colorado is 2-9 in its last 11 road games against teams allowing three or more gpg while going 12-22 in its last 34 games after scoring four goals or more in their previous game this season. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite of -110 to -150. 10* (28) San Jose Sharks |
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05-08-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays +100 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Twins handed the reeling Blue Jays their fourth straight loss while Minnesota picked up its eighth win in 11 games. It was also a second straight shutout as Toronto was blanked by Jose Berrios after getting dominated by Martin Perez on Monday in the series opener. It was the Blue Jays' first time getting shut out in two straight games since July 9-10, 2015. Expect the bats to wake up tonight against Kyle Gibson. He was coming off a pair of quality starts, but both were against Baltimore, which came after three shaky outings to open the season and he was roughed up against the Yankees last time out. In three career starts at Rogers Centre, he has a 7.86 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. Trent Thornton has been a solid addition to the rotation despite not having picked up a win in seven starts. He has a 4.08 ERA but a 1.19 WHIP and in those seven starts, he has allowed three hits or less four times and has gone at five innings in all of those. He has also picked up 38 strikeouts in 35.1 innings and has fared much better than he was expected to when he came over from Houston in a trade last offseason. 10* (970) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-07-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. Denver opened this series with a win but then lost the next two games including that epic four overtime loss in Portland before winning on Sunday to tie it up and regain home court advantage. Despite a loss here in Game Two, the Nuggets are 38-9 at home as they look to carry the momentum over and Denver is 18-5 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. The Blazers had won 12 consecutive games at home, including four in the playoffs, before the loss on Sunday. They effectively lost Game 4 in the third quarter, when they made just 5 of 18 shots, committed seven turnovers and scored 14 points. Portland is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 road games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games against the spread over the last three seasons. Here, we paly against road underdogs against division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite. This situation is 25-8 ATS (75.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (508) Denver Nuggets |
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05-07-19 | Nationals -102 v. Brewers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. It has not been a great start to the season for Washington which is six games under .500 following a 1-3 start to this roadtrip including a series opening loss last night. It was a case where the Nationals No. 1 ace came in as a slight underdog and lost and we get ace No. 2 tonight as a great price in a better situation. Milwaukee has now won four straight games and sits one game out of first place in the National League Central. The Brewers hand the ball to Adrian Houser who was lit up for five runs on nine hits in four innings in his first Major League start on April 22. Stephen Strasburg counters for Washington and he has posted just bad outing this season and he is currently in his best form with a 1.25 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over his last three starts. Washington is 16-2 in his last 18 road games against NL teams with an on base percentage .325 or worse. Here, we play on National League teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 133-75 (63.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (901) Washington Nationals |
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05-06-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets -119 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS for our NHL Monday Breakaway. The Bruins and Blue Jackets played a memorable Game Five with each team scoring three third period goals including the game winner for Boston with a minute and half remaining. Boston's top line has accounted for 11 points (six goals, five assists) in the past two games, erasing its team's 2-1 series deficit to push Columbus to the brink of elimination. The Blue Jackets are 25-18-2 at home on the season after suffering their first home playoff loss last time out against Boston after winning their first three by a combined 12-5 score. This has not historically been ideal for Boston as it is 2-11 in its last 13 road games when trying to close out a playoff series while going 3-7 in its last 10 playoff games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are 7-2 in their last nine games as a favorite while going 9-4 in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (14) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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05-06-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays -104 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Minnesota lost two of three games in New York over the weekend but still holds a two-game lead in the American League Central over Cleveland. The Twins are 9-7 on the road and this is where the pitching has really struggled as they have a 5.26 ERA which is third worst in baseball. Toronto concluded a 1-5 roadtrip with a pair of losses on Saturday and Sunday in Texas and after a solid run prior to this, the Blue Jays are now four games under .500 overall. Marcus Stroman has just one win this season but he is back to his old form that we saw to start his career. He has a 2.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP through seven starts and he has been sensational at home with a 0.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in four starts. The lack of wins is due to 2.57 rpg of support but this should change tonight. Martin Perez is off to a perfect 4-0 start after three relief appearances and four starts but we cannot be sold on this guy. He had only one year with a sub-4.00 ERA in seven seasons in Texas and he has struggled on the road with a career 5.03 ERA. 10* (970) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. Boston was able to snag the first game of this series but the Bucks have won the last two games to regain home court advantage and they have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead with a win but the Celtics get it done at home tonight. Giannis Antetokounmpo nearly collected a triple-double with 32 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists and Boston needs to limit his trips to the line as he went to the stripe 22 times, becoming just the sixth player this decade to attempt at least 22 free throws in a playoff game. Another huge factor for the Celtics is that Marcus Smart could return tonight after missing the last month as he has been cleared for full contract practice and is hopeful of playing tonight. Despite the Game Three loss, the Celtics are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss as a favorite, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 90-53 ATS (62.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (502) Boston Celtics |
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05-04-19 | Blue Jackets v. Bruins -138 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON BRUINS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. After an overtime split at home in the first two games, Boston surrendered the series to Columbus in Game Three with a 2-1 loss but was able to win on Thursday to tie it back up and regain home ice for two of the final three games. Boston was finally able to solve goalie Sergei Bobrovsky as they found the net four times and previous to that, he had allowed just one goal in the past 1:21:41 of game time, and that goal only passed the goal line by a half an inch. Now back home, Boston can take control of this series where it is 7-3 in its last 10 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Additionally, the Bruins are 18-7 in their last 25 games as a favorite. Columbus has been a solid team on the road this season but because of that, this number is low and is actually the lowest of the three games in Boston in some spots. The Bruins are 3-16 on the power play in this series after converting twice in Game Four and they want to carry that momentum back home as the Bruins were 7-for-16 in the first series against Toronto and were third in the NHL at 25.9 percent during the regular season. 10* (2) Boston Bruins |
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05-04-19 | A's v. Pirates -103 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Oakland snapped a six-game slide with a 14-1 win in Pittsburgh with that 14-run output being just one run short of those previous six games combined. They are still just 5-11 on the road and do not have much business being even money in this spot. Going back, the A's are 3-14 in their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh had its two-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and has now fallen to 2-9 over its last 11 games after a red hot start to the season. The Pirates have lost six straight home games which is another reason this number is as low as it is which makes the contrarian approach more value loaded. Trevor Williams is coming off his first bad start of the season as he allowed five runs in six innings but that came against the Dodgers, the highest scoring team in the National League. He had tossed five straight quality outings to open the season and we expect him to get back to that form tonight and the same form that saw him post a 3.11 ERA in 31 starts last season. Chris Bassitt has looked sharp but has just two starts heading into tonight and Oakland is just 4-9 in his last 13 road starts. Here, we play on National League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are averaging 3.5 or fewer rpg going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who has given up one or less earned runs in his last two outings. His situation is 43-21 (67.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (980) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-03-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4 | Top | 137-140 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. Which Denver team shows up tonight? The Nuggets shot 50.6 percent from the field and 41.4 percent from three-point range in Game One but they hit just 34.7 percent (34-for-98) from the field, 20.7 percent from three-point range (6-for-29) and 61.5 percent from the foul line (16-for-26) in Game Two. We are thinking somewhere in-between and maybe shying toward Game Two as the Nuggets are a much different team on the road as they come in with a 21-23 record. Portland was able to steal home court advantage with the Game Two victory despite guard Damian Lillard being held to season playoff lows in points (14) and assists (four) on Wednesday. That is a telling sign as the Blazers showed that they are capable of winning other ways as they had five other players score in double-figures while stepping up defensively. This should not come as a surprise as the Blazers were ranked ninth in the NBA in effective field goal shooting defense during the regular season. The Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Blazers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a losing road record. Here, we play against road underdogs against division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (588) Portland Trail Blazers |
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05-03-19 | Stars v. Blues -145 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Friday Breakaway. We won with the Stars on Wednesday as they were in a must win spot to avoid going into a 3-1 hole and they have now turned this into a best-of-three series. Each team has won once on opposing ice including Dallas winning Game Two here in St. Louis so it will be up to the Blues to respond from that as well as the defeat on Wednesday. The Blues won the first and third games, while the Stars took the second and fourth, so it's up to St. Louis to bounce back after their first road loss of the playoffs. The Blues are 26-17-3 at home which is nothing particularly special but they are 6-1 in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. Additionally, the Blues are 22-4 in their last 26 games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. Dallas is 22-19-5 on the road this season and going back, the Stars are 19-39 in their last 58 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Stars offense will be in for another challenge against goalie Jordan Binnington who is 15-3 at home since taking over as the full time starter back in January. Here, we play on favorites against the money line off a loss by two goals or more to a division rival against opponent off a home win by two goals or more. This situation is 81-34 (70.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (82) St. Louis Blues |
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05-03-19 | Twins v. Yankees -148 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Yankees finished their most recent roadtrip with a 6-3 record although they did lose the final two games against Arizona as the offense was shutdown with just three runs total after averaging 6.6 rpg in the first seven games. New York returns home where it is a modest 8-7 which is keeping this number down as is the rash of injuries the Yankees have endured. But they are 5-1 in their last six games here and send new ace James Paxton to the hill. He is coming off a subpar effort against the Giants and in three road starts, he has a 7.20 ERA and 1.87 WHIP but Yankee Stadium has treated him well with a 0.46 ERA and 0.61 WHIP in three outings. In five starts against the Twins, he has a 2.51 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Minnesota has won two straight games to complete a 6-1 homestand and it now has a three-game lead over the Indians in the American League Central. Kyle Gibson gets the ball for the Twins and he is in a tough spot here. He is coming off a pair of quality starts, but both were against Baltimore, which came after three shaky outings to open the season. In eight starts against the Yankees, he is 1-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.55 WHIP with the Twins losing seven of those games. 10* (918) New York Yankees |
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05-02-19 | Sharks v. Avalanche -118 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO AVALANCHE for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. It is up to Colorado to take advantage of home ice tonight to tie up this series as a loss here will put it in a nearly impossible hole to come back from. San Jose won the series opener by twice erasing deficits before running away with a 5-2 win. In Tuesday's game, the Sharks blew a 2-0 lead, but immediately after it became a tie game late in the third period, they took advantage of a crucial Avalanche miscue and Logan Couture scored the game winner to record a hat-trick. Captain Joe Pavelski remains out with a head injury. Colorado had an eight-game home winning streak prior to the Tuesday loss and it needs to figure out the Sharks which have caused the Avalanche problems. Dating back to March 17, Colorado is 1-3 in four games against San Jose and 12-1-2 in 15 games against the rest of the league. Clearly, that has to change and it begins with top end goaltending from Philipp Grubauer who has been spectacular for close to two months with a 13-4-2 record over his last 19 games. The Sharks have won just two of their last seven road games while Colorado is 14-7 against the money line in its last 21 games revenging a home loss of two goals or more. 10* (78) Colorado Avalanche |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. Philadelphia stole Game Two of this series to gain home court advantage and it has still not gotten a top effort from Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid which is actually a good sign at this stage with this series being tied. The fact the Sixers are a home underdog here is surprising based on the venue change and what the lines were in Toronto but it is clear that the linesmakers are expecting more Raptors action tonight but we are not buying into that. The Sixers are 33-11 at home which have included two blowout wins over the Nets in their last two games and while the Nets are not on the same level as the Raptors, Philadelphia cannot be taken lightly on its home floor. The Sixers defense was shaky in Game One but terrific in Game Two as they held the Raptors to 36.7 percent shooting, including 27 percent from long range. The return of Mike Scott is actually a big deal tonight as he is a 3-and-D combo forward capable of covering opposing players 2-4 while even being able to play some small ball center. The Game Three winner in a series that is tied 1-1 has gone on to win the series 74 percent of the time which shows how important winning one of those first two games on the road is. Here, we play against road favorites that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg, after scoring 90 points or less. This situation is 46-21 ATS (68.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (582) Philadelphia 76ers |
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05-02-19 | Rays -151 v. Royals | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. Tampa Bay took the opener of this series but after a postponement on Tuesday, the Rays were swept in the doubleheader yesterday, getting outscored a combined 11-4. Those losses snapped a three-game winning streak for Tampa Bay which remains two games ahead of the Yankees for first place in the American League East. The Rays are 14-3 in their last 17 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Kansas City was on a 2-8 run before the Wednesday sweep and while it has been better at home than on the road, the Royals are still two games under .500 at home. Yesterday can be considered a total aberration as going back, the Royals are 6-21 in their last 27 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Charlie Morton has been a great addition to the rotation as he has a 2.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through six starts as he has allowed more than two runs only once and that was against the potent Red Sox. Danny Duffy counters for Kansas City and he is coming off a shaky first start of the season and could be in trouble again as the Rays are 5-0 in their last five road games against left-handed starters. Tampa Bay falls into a simple yet effective situation where we play on American League road teams allowing 3.9 or fewer rpg on the season going up against an opponent allowing 4.9 or more rpg on the season. This situation is 102-52 (66.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) Tampa Bay Rays |
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05-01-19 | Dodgers v. Giants +131 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 131 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. After winning the series opener on Monday, the Giants lost last night 10-3 as reliever Ty Blach allowed seven runs in the sixth and seventh inning. San Francisco is now just 6-9 at home including 1-4 on this current homestand but it is catching a solid price tonight with an advatnage on the hill. We played against the Dodgers Monday as they have been a much better team at home with a 12-4 compared to a now 8-8 record on the road. Madison Bumgarner takes the hill for the Giants and while they are 1-5 in his six starts with his ERA being 4.30, he has pitched much better than that. He has a 1.12 WHIP in those games to go along with a 35:5 K:BB ratio. He has tossed eight straight quality starts against the Dodgers, posting a 2.04 ERA over 53 innings in those games. Los Angeles sends Hyun-Jin Ryu to the hill and he is having a solid season with a 2.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in five starts but the success has mostly come at home. He has a 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in two road start with the Dodgers losing both games and it has not helped they have scored only three runs in those two games. 10* (910) San Francisco Giants |
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05-01-19 | Blues v. Stars -119 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS STARS for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. Dallas was able to snag home ice with a split in St. Louis but gave it right back with a loss at home on Monday. The Stars have been in this position before though as they were down two games to one to the Predators in their opening-round series and promptly won three straight to complete one of the many upsets that took place in the opening round. This is must win territory for Dallas and going back, it is 23-10 in its last 33 games coming off a home loss. St. Louis is perfect on the road in the playoffs with four wins and all of those have been by one goal so keeping this streak going will be a challenge. After finishing the regular season ranked 28th in the NHL in scoring with 2.55 gpg, the Stars have generated a lot more offense this postseason with three goals per game through their first nine games. The defense could be the difference tonight though as after allowing no more than three goals on those first eight games, the Stars gave up four goals Monday. Here, we play on favorites against the money line that are revenging a loss of one goal or less, off a home loss. This situation is 213-112 (65.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (74) Dallas Stars |
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05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. Denver took Game One of this series thanks to a huge effort from Nikola Jokic but it also got huge efforts from Jamal Murray and Paul Millsap to improve to 38-8 at home and it rolls into Game Two laying another short price. One of the most important playoff lessons the Nuggets learned was how difficult a series can be after giving up home court advantage. Denver losing Game One to San Antonio put them behind the eight ball until Game Four when they stole it back in a road victory so they know they cannot give this one up. Expect Millsap and Jokic to again have big performances against Portland due to the makeup of the Blazers frontcourt and if they choose to double-team Jokic, it would open up more looks from deep for the Denver backcourt. Damien Lillard has shown in the past he can take over a game as witnessed by his 50-point effort against the Thunder in the series clinching five-point win but he can not do it alone against a team as deep and balanced as Denver. He scored 39 points in Game One but only Enos Kanter had more than 17 points for the Blazers. Denver is 18-4 ATS in 22 home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. The Blazers meanwhile are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (578) Denver Nuggets |
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04-30-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Tuesday Star Attraction. We lost with Golden St. on Sunday as it won Game One but failed to cover the number despite outshooting the Rockets 50.7 percent to 41.9 percent. The postgame, and going into Monday, was the lack of calls for the Rockets, namely James Harden and while some think those could be made up tonight, that will not be the case as the postseason is a big difference for those marginal calls. The main reason the Warriors were unable to pull away on Sunday was due to their 20 turnovers which is close to seven more than its season average so taking better care of the ball is imperative. The Warriors committed 10 turnovers in the first 16 minutes, giving Houston 10 points. Even with so many empty possessions, they had a three-point lead which tells a lot. Additionally, Golden St. was third best in the league during the regular season in long range shooting but went just 7-22 (31.8 percent) from behind the arc so those two small areas can turn a four-point win into a blowout victory. As can better games from two of its stars that seemed their ankle issues slowed them down. Steph Curry struggled all game (3-of-10 on three-pointers with 18 points) as did Klay Thompson (13 points on 5-of-13 shooting) and both of those lines can be considered outliers. Here, we play against underdogs off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation 57-15 ATS (79.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (574) Golden St. Warriors |
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04-30-19 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks -130 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Yankees have won 11 of 13 since sweeping a two-game series from Boston on April 16-17 and have won four straight series. They are coming off a weekend sweep of the Giants to move to 6-1 on this current roadtrip but they will be running into their biggest test thus far. Going back to last season, the Yankees are 1-11 in their last 12 games against the money line as road underdogs of +150 or less. Arizona has won 10 of 14 games despite dropping its last two games against the Cubs and it is still just two games out of first place in the National League West. C.C. Sabathia is expect to surpass 3,000 strikeouts tonight, making him just the third left-hander to do so, but he could struggle here on the road against after a bad start in Los Angeles against the Angels. The Diamondbacks are hitting .300 against left-handed pitching which is the best in baseball and it is far from a fluke as the they have 320 plate appearances which is fourth most in baseball. Arizona also leads baseball with 51 RBIs and 165 total bases against lefties. Since getting shelled in his first start of the season against the Dodgers, Zack Greinke has made five straight quality starts, winning four, and has 13 scoreless innings in his last two games. Despite this being considered a hitters park, he is 27-12 in his last 39 home starts. Here, we play against underdogs that are hitting.333 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 41-8 (83.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-30-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets -120 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. After the Bruins and Blue Jackets needed three overtimes to earn a split of the first two games in Boston, the Eastern Conference semifinal series shifts to Columbus for Game Three and we give a solid edge to the home team despite the Boston road success during the postseason where it took two of three in Toronto. Columbus is playing at a high level right now as it swept the best team the NHL has seen in a long time and while it was outshot 37-22 in Game One of this series, it took overtime for the Bruins to win that one. The Blue Jackets are 24-17-2 at home which is nothing special but in the postseason, having the home crowd in their favor is huge. This is a team that has already exceeded expectations after never having won more than three games in the postseason. Of course, the last two years, Columbus had some bad scheduling luck falling to Pittsburgh in five games in 2017 and then falling to Washington in six games, after taking a 2-0 series lead on the road last year. A quick dispatch of Tampa Bay shows how things have changed. A key factor is goalie Sergei Bobrovsky who has been sensational. He has a 2.01 GAA in the playoffs and has stopped 63 of the 68 shots he has faced against Boston. The Blue Jackets are 7-0 in their last seven games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (68) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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04-29-19 | Dodgers v. Giants +139 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 139 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers hit the road following a three-game home sweep of the Pirates to improve to 19-11 and maintained their two-game lead over the Padres in the National League West. While it is 12-4 at home, Los Angeles is just 7-7 on the road and going back, the Dodgers are 2-6 in their last eight games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Giants meanwhile were swept by the Yankees over the weekend but going back, San Francisco is 40-26 in its last 66 games after three or more consecutive home games. Jeff Samardzija gets the ball for the Giants and hopes to continue his decent start to the season as he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his five starts to post a 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. In two home starts, he has a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with the Giants winning both of those games. Kenta Maeda counters for Los Angeles and he is coming off one of his worst career outings. He allowed six runs on seven hits in four innings against the Cubs and he now has a 5.20 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in five starts including a 7.53 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in three road starts. He has a 4.58 ERA in 11 career appearances against the Giants while going 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in six appearances in San Francisco. Here, we play on National League home teams with an on base percentage of .300 or worse on the season while batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 156-106 (60 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) San Francisco Giants |
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04-29-19 | Blues +106 v. Stars | Top | 4-3 | Win | 106 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our Monday Breakaway. St. Louis heads to Dallas for Game Three of this series that is tied at 1-1. In Game Two, the Blues had a power play in the final 2:30 and pulled goalie Jordan Binnington in the final two minutes for an extra skater but the Dallas defense held them off. Roope Hintz scored an empty netter in the closing seconds to make it 4-2 final. St. Louis is 24-13-7 on the road which may not seem great but it is very solid after losing eight of its first 11 road games. On one hand, the Blues are behind schedule compared to the Winnipeg series, because they started 2-0 against the Jets. You could also say they are ahead of schedule because they went 1-1 at home against Dallas; they started 0-2 at home against the Jets. The Blues have done an excellent job against the Stars top line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov, but have been hurt by secondary scoring from lesser lines. And there was that 0-for-5 performance on the power play Saturday. St. Louis is 8-1 in nine road games after allowing four goals or more this season while Dallas 28-42 in its last 70 games after a win by two goals or more. Here, we play on teams against the money line in the second half of the season off a home loss by two goals or more, with a winning record. This situation is 223-149 (60 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (61) St. Louis Blues |
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04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. Golden St. showed what it is capable of with its Game Six win over the Clippers and as long as this team is focused, there is no stopping it. That can be said about every NBA team but the Warriors are on a different level and after going seven games with Houston last season, they will be coming out firing today to open this series. Additionally, with Houston winning both regular season games here, there will be a greater sense of urgency. Surprisingly this postseason, the Warriors have lost more home games (they were 1-2 at home in the first round) than they lost in the last two postseasons combined (19-1) but they can blame this year on complacency rather than focus. Against Utah, the Rockets allowed the Jazz to take wide open threes and hoped that they would not be able to hit them which they did not and they cannot take that chance here. Utah took 77.5 percent of their shots from the restricted area or three-point range, the second-highest rate in the postseason and only slightly lower than that of the Rockets (77.7 percent) and against Golden St. that is not an option. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (that are shooting 48 percent or better on the season, after two straight games making nine or more three-point shots. This situation is 84-58 ATS (60 percent) since 1996. 10* (556) Golden St. Warriors |
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04-28-19 | Hurricanes v. Islanders -139 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -139 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK ISLANDERS for our NHL Sunday Breakaway. We lost a tough one with the Islanders on Friday in Game One in overtime, the second straight overtime victory for the Hurricanes but we expect New York to even this series up before heading to Carolina. The offense was obviously non-existent but the defense played its part throughout regulation and continues to be the strength that got them here as the Islanders finished the regular season allowing an average of 2.30 gpg which was the best in the league and have now allowed just seven goals in the five postseason games including giving up just one goal in each of the last four. Carolina has gotten by with late defense to survive but this style of play will not last and coming off consecutive overtime victories, this is the spot the Hurricanes have a huge letdown. They won their first game in their last 12 against teams allowing 2.4 gpg or fewer and a repeat is not on deck for today. The Islanders are 9-1 in their last 10 games following getting shutout and here, we play on favorites against the money line that are revenging a loss of one goal, off a home loss. This situation is 213-111 (65.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (52) New York Islanders |
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04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 86-90 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. We won with San Antonio on Thursday as it staved off elimination with a dominant home win by 17 points by pulling away in the fourth quarter. It was during the beginning of that final period, when Nikola Jokic was on the bench, that the Spurs extended their lead with a massive 22-4 run. The Spurs shot 57.1 percent from the floor but despite that, they were outscored 72-36 in the paint and that is where the Nuggets can once again take advantage on their home floor. It is hard to go against the experience of the Spurs as they have dominated the postseason for two decades however, there are hardly any remnants from those teams on the current roster. San Antonio is only the sixth No. 7 seed in NBA history to force a Game Seven against a No. 2 seed, and only five times has a No. 7 seed beaten a No. 2 seed in a first round match-up. Denver has responded well to must-win situations at every turn in this series as it has won by nine and 14 points following the first two losses. If nothing else, their NBA best 36-8 home record should afford them some measure of comfort in what will be an unprecedented environment. Denver is 12-4 ATS in home games revenging a loss this season while the Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win. 10* (542) Denver Nuggets |
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04-27-19 | Blue Jackets +126 v. Bruins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 126 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. Boston took Game One of this series in overtime as it came back from just a two-day layoff after the seven-game Toronto series so it was an impressive bounceback. The disadvantage for Columbus in Game One was the fact it was off for nine days after sweeping Tampa Bay and while rust is not a common thing in hockey, time off like that can affect chemistry and it clearly showed with the Blue Jackets getting outshot 37-22. It took them seven minutes into the before registering their first shot on goal so it took a while to get their legs under them. They held to Bruins to just two regulation goals which is encouraging with the defense not letting up which has been the case all season as the Blue Jackets 2.59 GAA on the road was fourth best in the NHL during the regular season. They held Tampa Bay to an average of 2.0 gpg and the Lightning came into that series as the highest scoring team in the league. Columbus is 10-2 in road games after allowing three goals or more in two straight games this season while Boston is 6-11 after scoring three goals or more in three straight games this season. 10* (43) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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04-26-19 | Warriors v. Clippers +10 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. We won with the Clippers in Game Five in Golden St. as they won outright to send the series back to Los Angeles and we are backing them again behind another huge number. Based on the venue change, this number should be no more than 8.5 but because it is the Warriors, and coming off a loss, the spread is inflated once again. The Clippers have scored 135 and 129 points the last two games at Golden St. but managed only 105 points in the two games at home and that cannot happen again. Los Angeles was far more reserved after its latest win at Golden St.. The Clippers are plenty aware that they shot 56.5 percent from the floor in Game Two, only to turn around and shoot 37.2 percent in Game Three. Now, after shooting 54.1 percent in Game Five, they are fully aware they cannot have a similar regression. Golden St. is 9-22 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six games against the spread this season while the Clippers are 29-11 ATS after allowing 105 points or more five straight games this season. Here, we play on underdogs of 10 or more points after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 120 points or more. This situation is 39-20 ATS (66.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (534) Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-26-19 | Angels v. Royals +111 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Angels salvaged the final game against the Yankees last night with an 11-5 win and temporarily ended a 1-9 run. The Royals are back home following a 10-game roadtrip where they went just 3-7 but they are riding a three-game home winning streak. Danny Duffy was cleared for his big-league return earlier in the week after striking out seven in 5.1 scoreless innings in his rehab start for Double-A Northwest Arkansas on Saturday. In three career home starts against the Angels, he has a 2.37 ERA with all three starts being quality outings and the Royals winning all three of those. Tyler Skaggs has struggled in two road starts, posing a 6.23 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and this will be his first start since April 12 after going on the injury list with an ankle injury. 10* (976) Kansas City Royals |
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04-26-19 | Hurricanes v. Islanders -130 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK ISLANDERS for our NHL Friday Breakaway. Carolina burned us on Wednesday as it rallied from two different two-goal deficits to force overtime and eventually won to take the seven-game series and end the Capitals hopes of repeating as Stanley Cup Champions. With that loss, all four division winners were ousted in the first round which gives all four home teams big advantages in the second round as they were not supposed to even have home ice. The Islanders are coming off a sweep of the Penguins and they have now been off for nine days and we think this will be a benefit rather than a detriment as can be the case in other sports. Carolina could have benefitted from more time off but it has to travel again and faces a stiff test as the Islanders finished the regular season allowing an average of 2.30 gpg which was the best in the league and then allowed just six goals in the four games against the Penguins. Carolina 0-11 in its last 11 road games against teams allowing 2.4 or less gpg while going 1-11 in its last 12 games off a win by one goal over a division rival. Meanwhile, the Islanders are 10-2 in their last 12 games off a road win against a division rival this season. 10* (8) New York Islanders |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN ANTONIO SPURS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. Denver has a chance to end this series tonight and while it comes in with big momentum, things will not be easy. The Spurs are a very good home team with a 33-10 overall record and have lost in San Antonio twice in a row only once this season. They are hungry and desperate after two shellackings at the hands of the Nuggets that has put Denver ahead 3-2 in the series. The Spurs are obviously in must win mode and they are 24-5 ATS revenging a road loss this season. The Nuggets would love nothing more than to end this series early so they can rest a little bit extra and while they are the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, their 20-21 road record was second worst of all Western Conference playoff teams. The Nuggets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games playing with one day of rest while going 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games after a game where they covered the spread this season. 10* (526) San Antonio Spurs |
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04-25-19 | Braves v. Reds -134 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Cincinnati held on for a 7-6 win in this series opener before being shut down last night 3-1 behind a solid start from Mike Soroka for the Braves plus 3.1 innings of no-hit baseball from the bullpen. The Reds are now 5-2 in their last seven home games and send their ace to the hill tonight to win this series. The Braves have been an early disappointment as they are just 12-11 after winning the division last season as the pitching has been a major letdown with a 4.57 ERA, fourth worst in the National League. Julio Teheran has been a big part of that as he has a 5.61 ERA through five starts including an 8.59 ERA in three road outings. Luis Castillo has been just the opposite as he has allowed two runs or less in all five of his starts for a 1.47 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, second and third respectively in the National League. This should come as no surprise as he posted a 2.44 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 11 starts after the break last season. 10* (906) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-24-19 | Clippers +14 v. Warriors | Top | 129-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. The Clippers put up a good effort in Game Four but eventually lost by eight points and now their backs are really against the wall down 3-1 in this series. Los Angeles stole one here in Game Two and there is no reason to believe it cannot steal another one although our main concern is staying within this huge number. The Clippers got a poor effort from Lou Williams in Game Four as he scored just 12 points off the bench on 2-10 shooting and they need a bigger effort from him tonight. the Clippers are 28-11 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in five straight games this season. The Warriors would like to close this series out to that added rest similar to Philadelphia last night although we hardly see a dominating effort like that one. This is the most vulnerable Golden St. team we have seen since the dynasty began and while they can flip the switch at any given moment, they can also go into a funk at any given moment. The Warriors are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 home games. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10 or more points playing with double revenge, against opponent off a road win scoring 110 or more points. This situation is 97-56 ATS (63.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (515) Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-24-19 | Hurricanes v. Capitals -145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. We won with Carolina in Game Six as the Hurricanes made it a perfect 6-6 for the home team in this series. The offense has been the story as the home team has scored 26 goals while the road team has managed a mere eight goals including just three goals over the last four games. This gives a big edge to the Capitals tonight as they averaged 3.34 gpg during the regular season and 4.7 gpg during the three games in the postseason. The Capitals won their most recent Game Seven, which was with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final on the line. While this guarantees nothing, Washington head coach Todd Reirden believes there is more confidence heading into a Game Seven than in years past. While the Hurricanes are the team with nothing to lose and have the added benefit of controlling play for most of this series, Washington has been significantly better at home than on the road and should be able to find a way against a young Carolina team. The Hurricanes are is 9-28 in their last 37 road games against teams outscoring their opponents by 0.3 or more gpg while Washington is 28-12 in its last 40 games revenging a road loss. Here, we play on favorites off a loss by two goals or more to a division rival, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 242-133 (64.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (24) Washington Capitals |
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04-24-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates -115 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Pirates have lost the first two games of this series and three straight overall as the offense has hit a wall by scoring just seven runs total during this skid. Pittsburgh was not necessarily lighting it up before that but had been producing much more consistently. The Pirates are now a game out in the National League Central and they will bank on their pitching against tonight while the offense has a good chance to bust out. Pittsburgh leads the National League with a 2.97 team ERA and it sends Jordan Lyles to the hill and he has been awesome. He has allowed one run or less in all three of his starts to post a 0.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with Pittsburgh winning all three games. Arizona is now 6-2 on this current roadtrip to move two games over .500 overall and it trails the Dodgers by a game and a half in the National League West. Merrill Kelly opened his Major League career with a pair of quality outings but he has struggled in his last two starts, allowing seven runs over 8.2 innings. He brings in a 5.59 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in two road starts. The Diamondbacks are 3-9 in their last 12 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game while the Pirates are 7-1 in their last eight games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (958) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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04-23-19 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -105 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN JOSE SHARKS for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. San Jose forced a Game Seven at home following a thrilling double-overtime win and it looks for some payback following a 3-0 shutout loss at home last season to lose in six games against Vegas. One positive for San Jose is that Game Six started at 4 p.m. and ended a few minutes after 8 p.m. That allowed the Sharks to arrive back home before midnight and at least get a reasonable amount of sleep before they came back to the practice facility Monday morning. Another positive is that some players on the Sharks roster have experience with quick turnarounds after exhausting games as back in 2016, after each overtime game, they recovered to win the next game four times. San Jose heads into tonight 27-12-5 at home while Vegas is just 20-22-2 on the road so line value is clearly on the home side here. Vegas is 5-12 revenging a loss where it scored one or less goals this season. 10* (12) San Jose Sharks |
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04-23-19 | Nets v. 76ers -8.5 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Tuesday Supreme Annihilator. After losing the opener of this series, Philadelphia has won the last three games to take control and this is a big game to seize as the Sixers need the same time off as the Raptors which also play tonight and can close out Orlando. They needed a comeback against Brooklyn in Game Four as they outscored the Nets by 10 points in the fourth quarter but the two games prior to that resulted in wins by 22 and 16 points and that is what we expect tonight as long as the Sixers show up, they are capable of another blowout victory. One of the reasons Philadelphia enjoys a 3-1 lead against the Nets is the exceptional defense the team has played on D'Angelo Russell and the Sixers should be able to continue that heading home where they are 32-11 while the Nets, despite the Game One win, are three games under .500 on the road. Additionally, Philadelphia is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games while the Nets are now 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (508) Philadelphia 76ers |
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04-23-19 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES/NEW YORK METS OVER for our MLB Tuesday Totals Dominator. The Mets and Phillies went under the total last night in the series opener but we expect the offenses to bounce back tonight and with a value number on top of it. It was a rare under for the Mets which have gone 15-5-2 to the over on the season thanks to an offense that is hitting .261, good for ninth in baseball, and to a pitching staff with a 5.35 ERA, which is sixth worst in MLB. The Phillies pitching has not been much better with a 4.42 ERA and their offense is right up there as well. The starting pitching for tonight sets up for a lot of runs as Zach Eflin has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his last three starts including giving up eight runs in 10 innings over his last two starts, both on the road. Zack Wheeler has posted a 6.35 ERA and 1.54 WHIP overall and he allowed seven runs in 4.2 innings in his lone home stat against Washington. Philadelphia falls into a great totals situation where we play the over involving National League teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg going up a pitcher with an ERA of 5.70 or worse, with a bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. This situation is 55-27 (67.1 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (905) Philadelphia Phillies/(906) New York Mets |
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04-22-19 | Bucks v. Pistons +13 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT PISTONS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. This series is a good as over but the Pistons will be playing for pride as they have lost all seven meetings this season including the first three in this series that have come by an average of 24 ppg. While the Bucks will be looking to end their streak of eight straight first-round exits there is a little more embarrassment for the Pistons to remove as they have lost 13 consecutive playoff games, tied for the longest streak in NBA postseason history. Power forward Blake Griffin made his debut in the series after sitting out the first two games with a sore left knee. He toughed it out for 31 minutes and posted 27 points, seven rebounds and six assists. His teammates let him down, as Detroit shot below 40 percent for the third straight game. The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play on underdogs of 10 or more points revenging two straight losses of 10 points or more, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. This situation is 55-24 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (574) Detroit Pistons |
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04-22-19 | Brewers +142 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-13 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. This is already the third series of the season between the Brewers and Cardinals, with the first two taking place in Milwaukee, both series won by the home team. St. Louis remains home after a series win over the Mets and it now is tied with the Brewers for second place in the National League Central, one game behind the Pirates. Milwaukee is catching a very good price here mainly because it is starting a pitcher making his Major League debut but that does not guarantee a Cardinals win. Adrian Houser got the call for tonight and for good reason. Houser has made three starts for San Antonio and owns a 1.10 ERA. He has worked 16.1 innings, managed 18 strikeouts, walked three, and the only runs he has allowed have come off a pair of solo homers. Jack Flaherty counters for St. Louis and he has been inconsistent through four starts with the two worst coming against the Brewers where he has an 11.57 ERA over just seven innings combined. 10* (955) Milwaukee Brewers |
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04-22-19 | Capitals v. Hurricanes -115 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA HURRICANES for our NHL Monday Enforcer. Washington took a 3-2 series lead with Saturday night's 6-0 home victory as the home team continues to dominate in this series. The visiting team has yet to hold a lead in any of the five games in the series and it is up to the Hurricanes to keep the home domination going as they are on the brink of elimination. The Hurricanes will receive a boost from the return of right winger Andrei Svechnikov, who was knocked out by an Alex Ovechkin punch in Game Three. He was fourth on the team during the regular season with 20 goals. Carolina is 11-4 against the money line revenging a loss of three goals or more this season while the Capitals are 6-14 in their last 20 playoff games as underdogs of +110 to +150. Here, we play on favorites against the money line revenging a road loss by four goals or more, off a road loss against a division rival. This situation is 28-6 (82.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (90) Carolina Hurricanes |
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04-21-19 | Blazers v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 111-98 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. After losing the first two games in this series, Oklahoma City got one back on Friday and definitely needs to take Game Four before heading back to Portland. The Thunder won despite a horrible shooting night from Paul George who went just 3-16 from the floor including 2-7 from long range so that is actually a good edge for tonight as he likely will not be as bad. The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games while the Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off a home win by 10 points or more, playing a winning team. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (572) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-21-19 | Braves v. Indians -118 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Cleveland and Atlanta split a pair of games yesterday with the Indians taking Game One and the Braves taking Game Two as they rallied from a 7-0 deficit after two innings including scoring nine runs in the top of the ninth inning to win 8-7. Cleveland looks to win the series tonight and improve upon its 6-2 record at home and make up for that disaster last night. Both starters are off to fantastic starts with Max Fried posting a 0.92 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in three starts and Shane Bieber posting a 1.71 ERA and 0.81 WHIP through his first three starts. Bieber is in better position tonight as his falls into a solid contrarian situation where we play on American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an on-base percentage of .320 or less against a team with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.55 or worse, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 48-20 (70.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (930) Cleveland Indians |
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04-21-19 | Bruins +105 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 105 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON BRUINS for our NHL Sunday Power Play. The road team has won the last two games in this series including Toronto winning in Boston on Friday to give it a 3-2 lead and put the Bruins on the brink of elimination. We like the road team again here. The key to game five was the last of the power play for Boston as it went 0-3 after the Bruins power play scored in each of the first four games, going 5-for-11. Boston was third during the regular season with a 25.9 percent power play percentage. The Bruins are 11-4 in their last 15 road games against teams with a winning home record while going 11-4 in their last 15 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. The Maple Leafs are 1-10 in their last 11 games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game and Maple Leafs are 0-8 in their last eight games following a win. Here, we play on road teams when the money line is -100 to -150 revenging a same season loss, off a home loss. This situation is 68-34 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (79) Boston Bruins |
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04-20-19 | Rockets v. Jazz -2.5 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the UTAH JAZZ for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. We played on Utah in Game Two on Wednesday but a horrible start cost the Jazz as they fell behind by 20 points after the first quarter and never led the entire game. They shot just 21.1 percent from long range and that was also the problem in Game One where they shot only 25.9 percent from behind the arc. A return home should get Utah back in gear where it is 29-12 on the season. Houston has kept Donovan Mitchell from making plays as he is shooting only 32.4 percent from the floor including going just 4-15 from three-point range. Houston is 0-7 ATS in road games after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half this season while the Jazz are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss. Here, we play on home favorites revenging a loss of 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 53-21 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (564) Utah Jazz |
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04-20-19 | Stars v. Predators -139 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -139 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the NASHVILLE PREDATORS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. Nashville dropped the opener of this series but was able regain home ice with two straight wins before losing Game Four in Dallas on Wednesday 5-1. There will be some redemption in net as Pekka Rinne, who made 40 saves in Game Three on Monday, yielded four goals on eight shots before being relieved by Juuse Saros. Nashville is 14-2 against the money line in its last 16 home games revenging a loss of two goals or more. Meanwhile, Dallas is 0-5 against the money line after a win by four goals or more this season. Here, we play on favorites against the money line revenging a road loss versus opponent by four goals or more, off a road loss against a division rival. This situation is 28-5 (84.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (78) Nashville Predators |
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04-19-19 | Mariners v. Angels -115 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Seattle won the first game of this series 11-10 last night after nearly blowing a 10-2 lead to send the Angels to their fourth straight loss. Los Angels is now 8-11 and in last place in the American League West but most of the damage has come on the road where it is 2-9 compared to 6-2 at home, with the six-game winning streak snapped on Thursday. Seattle is now tied with Houston atop the division as its 9-1 road record is the best in baseball but we expect the seven-game run to end tonight. Marco Gonzales is making his sixth start and while he has been effective, he has not been overly dominating and this will be just his second true road start after posting a 4.33 ERA in 15 road starts last season. Felix Pena counters for the Angels and after a rough first outing against Oakland, he has been good in his last two starts despite being on a short leash. The Angels are 4-0 in his last four home starts. 10* (926) Los Angeles Angels |
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04-19-19 | Celtics v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 104-96 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. The Pacers need a win tonight to avoid a 3-0 series disadvantage and heading home will help them. Indiana held a lead late in Game Two but went scoreless for nearly eight full minutes in the fourth quarter, a stretch during which the Celtics scored 16 straight points to flip an 82-70 deficit into a four-point lead. The Pacers are 29-12 at home and this is their first home game in close to two weeks. Going back the Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Boston is just 21-20 on the road and this is a tough spot to be in which is similar to last postseason when it won the first two games in its opening series against Milwaukee only to hit the road and lose by 24 points in Game Three. The Pacers have another intangible edge as Victor Oladipo is expected to attend Game Three, marking his first public appearance in Bankers Life Fieldhouse since he ruptured his quad tendon. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 where the line is +3 to -3 off two or more consecutive road losses, playing a winning team. This situation is 86-45 ATS (65.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (554) Indiana Pacers |
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04-18-19 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -111 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN JOSE SHARKS for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. San Jose has found itself in a hole despite winning Game One as it has lost the last three game of this series, including the last two in Vegas by a combined score of 11-3. It certainly did not help that Erik Karlsson seems less than 100 percent, and it only hurts that the team's major advantage, Joe Thornton centering the third line, had to watch the game from the press box after being suspended but he will be back tonight. The bigger factor is that overall play without the puck still continues to put the Sharks in difficult situations. When you are allowing too many key opportunities, and not getting nearly enough key saves, the combination does not lead to great places. The Sharks bring back a 26-12-5 home record and here, we play on favorites against the money line after scoring one goal or less in their previous game going up against an opponent after scoring five goals or more in two straight games. This situation is 36-6 (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (58) San Jose Sharks |
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04-17-19 | Flames -110 v. Avalanche | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALGARY FLAMES for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. After a series opening win, Calgary has lost the last two games and after the best team in the Eastern Conference fell in epic fashion yesterday, the Flames do not want the same thing happening to them as the best team from the Western Conference. The Flames got blown out 6-2 in Game Three on Monday which puts them in must win mode tonight and on the season, Calgary is 12-3 revenging a loss of three or more goals. Additionally, the Flames are 15-7 in their last 22 games when their opponent scores five goals or more in their previous game. Colorado should be feeling the pressure and while it has been solid at home throughout the season, the Avalanche are 12-27 in their last 39 home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play on road favorites of -200 or less that are revenging two straight losses where opponent scored three or more goals, good team, with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 on the season. This situation is 28-5 (84.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (49) Calgary Flames |
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04-17-19 | Pistons +15 v. Bucks | Top | 99-120 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT PISTONS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. We won with the Clippers on Monday as it was coming off a blowout loss against Golden St. in Game One and we will be backing the Pistons in a similar situation tonight. Detroit lost by 35 points on Sunday in a game it never led and trailed by an many as 43 points and the situation here is similar to that of the Clippers in that they are getting the same amount of points in Game Two. The defensive intensity was bad on Sunday as the Pistons were not getting back on defense, which made for some easy baskets so they have to shore that up tonight. They fell behind 20-4 because of that lack of intensity and after returning home and watching the film, head coach Dwane Casey said many adjustments will be made. The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on two days of rest while the Bucks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 10 or more points that are outscoring their opponents by nine or more ppg going up against an opponent after scoring 90 points or less. This situation is 106-57 ATS (65 percent) since 1996. 10* (539) Detroit Pistons |
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