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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-30-16 | Lions v. Texans -1 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our October Game of the Month. After a 1-3 start to the season, Detroit has reeled off three straight wins to remain in the hunt in the NFC North. The issue is twofold however as all three of those victories took place at home and in all three instances, the Lions were outgained by their opponents. The total combined victory margin was just seven points so while winning close games is huge, Detroit could be sitting at 1-6. We played against Houston Monday as it lost to Denver by 18 points to fall to 4-3 on the season. The next day, all of the talk was how bad of a deal the Texans made with Brock Osweiler and while he has been struggling, the schedule has been brutal. Three games against Denver, Minnesota and New England is bad enough but when they are all on the road, it makes it nearly impossible. Houston is 4-0 at home and has won eight of its last nine regular season home games, the lone defeat coming last year against the Patriots. We have a great situation on our side as well as we play against road teams that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 57-26 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Detroit is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games off an upset win as a home underdog while Houston is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite. 10* (256) Houston Texans |
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10-30-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers -3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. This is a great setup for Carolina whose season is pretty much on the line. The Panthers are 1-5 and need to start some sort of run to make it back into the playoffs. They are coming off their bye week which could not have come at a better time with the way they have been playing as well as to rest some injuries issues. They catch Arizona coming off a tie at home last Sunday night against Seattle and now laying an early game on the east coast, which was originally scheduled for Sunday night is not ideal for the Cardinals. Arizona is struggling this season as well despite a favorable schedule with five of its first seven games taking place at home. The fact they are coming off a tie is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been seven teams coming off a tie and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 19.3 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Additionally, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing six points or less last game going up against an opponent after a loss by three or less points. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1983. Also, Carolina is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games against teams averaging 375 or more ypg while Arizona is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. 10* (270) Carolina Panthers |
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10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints +2.5 | Top | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 45 h 17 m | Show |
The Saints cashed for us last week in Kansas City and it was a game they could have won as they lost the turnover battle 2-0 including an interception that was returned for a touchdown. New Orleans outgained the Chiefs by 137 total yards but ultimately fell to 2-4 on the season. The Saints have played better than that however as two other losses came by a combined four points while the fourth loss they also won the yardage battle. Seattle is coming off a 6-6 tie in Arizona where they were outgained by 186 total yards. The fact they are coming off a tie is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been seven teams coming off a tie and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 19.3 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. The Seahawks were cruising along with three straight wins but they have only two comfortable wins on the season and those came against the 1-6 49ers and 2-5 Jets. The offense has been inconsistent and while the Saints defense is nothing special, the spot is just a horrible one. New Orleans is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog while going 18-7 in 25 games under Sean Payton following a loss of six points or less. 10* (258) New Orleans Saints |
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10-29-16 | Indians v. Cubs -127 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
The Cleveland pitching stifled the Cubs bats for a second time in this World Series as it won in a shutout for the second time in three games. The Chicago offense has disappeared on several occasions in the postseason as it has scored one run or less in five games but three of those were followed up by efforts of a combined 20 runs. We can expect to see that tonight as even though they are facing Corey Kluber, this is the second time they have seen him in a span of four days. Kluber tossed six shutout innings in the 6-0 Game One victory but the advantage goes to the Cubs this time around as a second look is always an edge and Kluber has not been as good on the road as he has been at home. Cleveland is just 9-8 in his 17 road starts and going back, the Indians are 3-9 in his last 12 road games after he allowed two earned runs or fewer in two straight starts. John Lackey counters for Chicago with its season on the line and you could not ask for a better veteran to be taking the hill in this spot. He has been sensational at Wrigley Field this season, posting a 2.62 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 16 starts, 12 of which have been quality. He is working with a lot of rest and has tossed only 146 pitches over two postseason starts and those were on the road. Experience is big and Lackey has a 3.26 ERA in 25 prior postseason appearances, including 22 starts. 10* (904) Chicago Cubs |
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10-29-16 | Magic +12 v. Cavs | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
We have a solid setup here based on early season results as Cleveland is off to a 2-0 start while Orlando remains winless at 0-2. The Cavaliers took care of Toronto last night in a game they only trailed once and that was by a single point but it took a three-pointer in the final minute to secure the victory. Now the Cavaliers return home and are laying double-digits which is a very inflated number. Orlando has gotten thumped in both of its games as it lost at home against Miami by 12 points and then last night, lost in Detroit by 26 points. The Magic are not as bad as they have looked the first two games out of the gate and we are getting exceptional value here tonight. They are getting more points than the Knicks got here on opening night and the Magic are not worse than them based on the line difference and looking back to last season, the Cavaliers were favored by 8.5 points in both home matchups and those were early in the season. These teams are not any different from last year yet we are seeing nearly a four-point difference. Orlando thrived in these situations last season as they went 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Cavaliers are the biggest public consensus tonight and we will gladly go against that and take the generous amount of points. 10* (505) Orlando Magic |
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10-29-16 | Auburn v. Ole Miss +4.5 | Top | 40-29 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI REBELS for our Saturday Enforcer. It is gut check time for Mississippi as it is coming off a pair of losses against Arkansas and LSU to fall to 3-4 overall on the season. The other two losses came against Florida St., a game really never should have lost, and against Alabama at home where they actually outgained the Tide by 35 total yards. With the season on the line this week, Mississippi has to step up and avoid its first three-game losing streak since 2013. Additionally, they are below .500 this late into the season for the first time since 2012 when they were 5-6 headed into the Egg Bowl. This is a big reason they are home underdogs this week but the fact that Auburn has turned its season around is also playing into it. The Tigers started the season 1-2 but have won and covered four straight games including a shellacking of Arkansas last week, a team that clearly gave up if anyone happened to watch any of it. Three of these wins have been at home however and the lone road victory came against Mississippi St. which is much worse than the Rebels. This Mississippi team's spirit hasn’t sunk to 2011 levels yet when it closed the season on a seven-game losing streak, but the season has taken a really negative turn, and it is head coach Hugh Freeze's job to figure out how to get things going in the right direction again. the Rebels have a solid situation in their favor as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 50 points or more last game. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1992. 10* (180) Mississippi Rebels |
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10-29-16 | North Texas v. Texas-San Antonio -3.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 52 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. This is one of those under the radar games where we have one team getting a little too much respect based on the line. North Texas is off to a solid 4-3 start under first year head coach Seth Littrell and the offense has shown signs of life after a 1-11 season where the Mean Green produced just 15.2 ppg. Still, they are just No. 115 overall in yardage so they have been fortunate along the way. North Texas has outgained just one opponent from the FBS, one of its wins came in overtime, another against an FCS opponent and got another fortunate win last week. Army jumped ahead 7-0 but North Texas took its first lead 14-7 on an interception return for a touchdown, one of seven turnovers for the Black Knights, and never gave the lead back. Army won the yardage battle 396-320 but 178 of those yards were wiped out by the seven miscues. The Mean Green scored 21 points off the turnovers. UTSA is coming off a tough loss last week as it fell to UTEP in five overtimes. The Roadrunners outgained the Miners by 81 total yards and had 10 more first down but could not come up with the clutch plays when needed. That was just their second home loss of the season, the first coming against Arizona St. by just four points. They own a quality home win against Southern Mississippi and fall into a spot where we play on home favorites in the second half of the season that are averaging between 390 to 440 ypg going up against teams allowing between 390 and 440 ypg, after allowing 6.75 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. 10* (190) UTSA Roadrunners |
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10-29-16 | SMU v. Tulane -3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our October Game of the Month. Tulane put up a clunker for us last week as the Green Wave lost in Tulsa 50-27 but that will not stop us playing them again this week. At 3-4, Tulane has already matched its win total from each of the last two seasons as this is definitely an improved team despite what happened last week. The quality of the losses is a sign of the turnaround as the first three defeats came by just 20 points combined and all four losses have come against teams with an overall record of 20-7. While the Green Wave do not have a huge home field advantage, it is important to note that they should see some extra bodies in the stands this week with LSU on its bye week. SMU is coming off the biggest win since upsetting TCU back in 2011. The Mustangs took care of Houston last week 38-16 as they jumped ahead 21-0 and never looked back. While it was a big victory, a lot of it can be put on Houston as the Cougars have looked to have cashed out on the season as a loss to Navy ended their playoff hopes and they almost lost to Tulsa the following week. SMU is just 1-3 on the road as it defeated a poor North Texas team and since then, it has not been competitive on the road. While the Mustangs lost by just three points in overtime at Tulsa, they were outgained by 150 yards and Tulsa was guilty of looking ahead to Houston the following week. The Mustangs have now covered twice as double-digit underdogs and that is a great spot to go against here especially at a short price. SMU is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog while the Green Wave are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (164) Tulane Green Wave |
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10-29-16 | Washington v. Utah +10 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our Saturday Star Attraction. Washington was flying under the radar just a few short weeks ago but that is no longer the case. The Huskies were favored by 3.5 points at home against Stanford, a team that is clearly not very good this year and now they are favored by a touchdown more on the road against a much better team. Make no mistake, this is a very good Washington team and being ranked No. 4 proves that. It controls its own destiny for the College Football Playoff but now comes the biggest test of the season which is part of a tough three-game stretch. Utah is off to a 7-1 start and it could easily be 8-0 right now. The lone loss came at California by just five points as the Utes outgained the Golden Bears by 80 total yards and controlled the time of possession by more than 24 minutes. They have been outgained only twice all season and those differences were just -10 and -20 yards but won both of those games by double-digits nonetheless. Despite the solid start to the season, Utah is ranked only No. 18 so this is team feeling slighted and will be out to prove what they are made of. The Utes are second in the nation in time of possession at 36 minutes per game and that is a recipe of success to defeat the Huskies. Also, according to ESPN stats and info, Utah holds opponents to an average of third-and-8.3. Only Alabama, Miami, and Michigan have better numbers than that. Going back, Utah is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. 10* (200) Utah Utes |
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10-29-16 | Penn State v. Purdue +13.5 | Top | 62-24 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 42 m | Show |
Kudos to Penn St. for knocking off Ohio St. last Saturday night, the first time the Nittany Lions have defeated a ranked opponent since 2013. Now they are ranked for the first time since 2011 and while they easily cashed a ticket for us, the outright win itself was a little fraudulent. Ohio St. won the yardage battle 413-319 but had a field goal blocked which the Nittany Lions returned 60 yards for a touchdown. This is now the letdown game of the week as Penn St. hits the road for the first time since September 24. The Nittany Lions have lost seven straight road games and you have to go back to 2012 when they won a road game by more than seven points. Purdue got waxed at Maryland at the beginning of October but other than that, has not played that bad. The Boilermakers fought hard in their last two games against Iowa and Nebraska, the latter coming in the first game after head coach Darrell Hazell got fired. They played with more heart last Saturday than they have all year as they were down by just three points heading into the fourth quarter. Overall, Purdue is 3-4 and with winnable games down the line, this is a team striving for a bowl game which would be the first one since 2012. Additionally, the Boilermakers fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between .401 and .499 after two or more consecutive straight up losses. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1992. Purdue is 7-0 in its last seven games after gaining 100 or fewer yards rushing while Penn St. is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games. 10* (140) Purdue Boilermakers |
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10-29-16 | Louisville v. Virginia +33 | Top | 32-25 | Win | 100 | 45 h 40 m | Show |
Virginia stunk it up last week against North Carolina as it lost by 21 points so it may be surprising we are backing the Cavaliers again taking on one of the best teams in the nation. After opening the season with two bad losses, they are 2-3 since then and while that may not seem overly impressive, Virginia won the yardage battle in two of those losses so this recent record could easily be 4-1. Giving Louisville a challenge to win this game outright may not happen but it is rare to see a home underdog line this big. Making a comparison, Michigan was favored by less than this number on the road against a horrible Rutgers team and Virginia is not horrible. Louisville comes in ranked no. 5 in the nation and despite a loss to Clemson, it remains in the playoff hunt. After rolling in their first four games, the Cardinals have not looked the same. They lost to Clemson, played an ugly game against Duke and while they rolled last week against NC State, they were catching the Wolfpack off an overtime loss against Clemson in a game they should have won outright in regulation. Louisville possesses one of the best offenses in the nation so it will not be stopped but can be slowed down similar to the way Duke did it and that is with time of possession control. Virginia falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on underdogs of 31.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) since 1992. 10* (144) Virginia Cavaliers |
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10-29-16 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 45 h 40 m | Show |
West Virginia won again last week and has moved up to No. 10 in the nation. Nobody saw this coming but this is arguably the worse of the remaining undefeated teams from power conferences. The defense has led the charge which is surprising as the Mountaineers returned just four starters on that side of the ball. They had a very easy schedule in the first half of the season now starts the rugged back end of it even with a few easy games sprinkled in there. This is the toughest test so far for West Virginia and this is no easy place for opponents to play. Oklahoma St. is off to a 5-2 start but it could be even better. The Cowboys never should have lost to Central Michigan on a botched call by the officials which led to a Hail Mary. The other loss came against Baylor but they trailed by just four points late in the fourth quarter and were outgained by just 31 total yards. Defensively, this team is not great but the offense can take advantage of the Mountaineers defense which the jury is still out on. Freshman running back Justice Hill can keep West Virginia honest enough on defense for quarterback Mason Rudolph to beat the Mountaineers deep. The receiving corps is terrific and Rudolph is one of the top pocket-passing quarterbacks in the country. In the last road game for West Virginia, it was favored by fewer points against Texas Tech than it is here and the Red Raiders are far below the Cowboys. The Mountaineers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record while the Cowboys are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. 10* (156) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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10-28-16 | Hornets +2 v. Heat | Top | 97-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Both Charlotte and Miami won their season openers on the road and square off tonight in a rematch of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals from last season. The Heat took that series in seven games but this is a much different team now with a lot of those pieces having departed. Miami was fortunate to catch a cold shooting Orlando team on Wednesday as the Magic shot just 38.6 percent from the floor and were outscored 30-16 in the third quarter. Charlotte won in Milwaukee to open the season and that may be considered an upset for some, the Hornets were actually favored over the Bucks who were without one of their best players as Khris Middleton is out for a lengthy period time because of a torn hamstring. Charlotte has all of its pieces in place to make another playoff run and this is a very under the radar team. According to ESPN, Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum and Marvin Williams outscored their opponents by 6.8 points per 100 possessions which was the second most in the Eastern Conference by any trio. After losing Game Seven in Miami last season by 33 points, the Hornets will be out for revenge tonight. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This situation is 152-95 ATS (61.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (709) Charlotte Hornets |
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10-28-16 | Suns v. Thunder -9 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Oklahoma City struggled to put away Philadelphia in its opener on Wednesday as it needed a huge fourth quarter to pull out the victory. Russell Westbrook was the difference as expected as he scored nine of his 32 points in the last 4:09, including the go-ahead free throws with 35 seconds left. This is his team now and playing the home opener will have a lot of energy surrounding it. Westbrook finished with a team high 32 points while the center combination of Steven Adams and Enes Kanter combined for 33 points but it is up to the rest of the starters to start contribution. Phoenix got blown out at home against Sacramento on Wednesday as after grabbing an early four-point lead, the Suns allowed a 16-1 run to end the first quarter and were never in it. This is an extremely young team that has potential but not at this point as it is going to take time to come together. The roster includes four players who have yet to turn 20 years old and that is not an ideal situation for a team in this conference especially. Oklahoma City swept the season series last year and while it can be argued this is a different team now without Kevin Durant, there is enough to make a big run and these games are the ones that need to be won. Phoenix won just nine road games last season, tied for fourth fewest in the NBA. 10* (708) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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10-28-16 | Indians v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Cleveland and Chicago split the first two game of the World Series and now they head to Chicago for three straight games over the weekend. The Cubs will have to sweep the set if they want to celebrate the World Series win at home but most important, after claiming home field with the split in Cleveland, they do not want to give it back in Game three. Chicago is 61-25 at home this season which is by far the best record in baseball and if you thought the frenzy in Cleveland was big, wait until tonight. Josh Tomlin takes the hill for the Indians and he has had a solid, yet unspectacular postseason. He has not been able to post a quality outing as he has not been able to get six full innings in but has been good enough to sneak out a pair of one-run wins. He has been decent on the road but a 4.27 ERA is a problem especially against the Chicago bats that came to life in Game Two. Kyle Hendricks had the best ERA in the National League yet he still considered the third best pitcher in this staff which is certainly a good thing for the Cubs. He has been outstanding at home this season with a 1.37 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over 17 starts with the Cubs winning 12 of those. Most important for this wager is how the Cubs have been winning when Hendricks takes the hill. The Cubs have won 21 games that he has started and of those 21 games, 20 came by more than one run including the last 19 so it is a much safer bet to play the runline and get much better odds than to lay a huge moneyline price. 10* (902) Chicago Cubs -1.5 Runs |
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10-28-16 | Cavs -2 v. Raptors | Top | 94-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
The Cavaliers and Raptors last met in the Eastern Conference Finals with the former taking the series four games to two and eventually winning the NBA Championship. We played against Cleveland on opening night but a close game against the Knicks was opened up in the third quarter and the Cavaliers won by 29 points. This does go against the stance of not playing reigning champions but this line is too good to pass up. Of the six games played last season in the conference finals, three were in Toronto and while Cleveland was favored in all of those games, it was favored by at least six points in all of those games. Granted, Toronto did win two of those three games and the clinching Cavaliers win in Game Six was the lone road win in the season series of nine games but we cannot pass up on this value. The Raptors looked good in their season opener against Detroit but the Pistons were without Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond was a non-factor because of early foul trouble. Toronto only covered five of its last 17 games against teams with a winning record and Cleveland falls into a great longterm situation where we play against underdogs off a home win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent off a home win by 20 points or more. This situation is 113-67 ATS (62.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (701) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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10-28-16 | Navy v. South Florida -6.5 | Top | 45-52 | Win | 100 | 32 h 56 m | Show |
We played against South Florida last Friday and the Bulls fell behind late in the third quarter and were unable to recover. That puts them in a good spot this Friday as they have a chance to remain in first place in the AAC East and improve to 5-1 at home. South Florida was riding a three-game winning streak prior to last week all of which were dominating performances against conference opponents and it will certainly be put to the test this week. The public is all over Navy and the line has dropped below the key number of seven because of that. The Midshipmen are 4-0 in the conference and are on a two-game winning streak. The marquee win came against Houston three weeks ago but they were fortunate to win that game as they were outgained by 102 yards. These last two games have been at home and on the road, Navy is 1-1 including a bad loss at Air Force in its most recent road game. The Navy defense suffered a blow when linebacker and co-captain Daniel Gonzales went down with a season-ending foot injury in that game. The defense will be tested for sure against the Bulls offense that averages 487.1 ypg and 42.4 ppg, good for No. 21 and No. 11 in the nation respectively. The Bulls also own the better defense and they will be out to avenge a 29-17 Halloween loss last season at Navy. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game while Navy has failed to cover its last four road games. 10* (114) South Florida Bulls |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans UNDER 44 | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
We have seen the under come through the last two Thursday night games and we can expect to see another one tonight barring any fluky scoring. The Jaguars offense continues to struggle as they are averaging just 324 ypg and 19.5 ppg. There's talk that if Bortles can't turn things around, the coaching staff could bench him for backup Chad Henne. That would be an admission that Bortles isn't the long-term answer. The real problem is that the offensive line has been unable to open holes for the running game and will have problems against the Titans pass rush. Tackle Kelvin Beachum will likely play but is far from 100 percent. Tennessee is allowing just 338 ypg, good for No. 10 in the league. The Titans are putting up decent numbers on offense but are averaging just 20.9 ppg which is No. 21 in the NFL. Tennessee will have to play without guard Quinton Spain, who figures to be out for at least the next two games after being injured in the second quarter last Sunday. That could make it a bit easier for Jacksonville to neutralize DeMarco Murray, the NFL's third-leading rusher with 633 yards. The Jaguars defense has allowed more points than expected but a lot of that is blamed on the offense with turnover setting up a short field for opponents. Overall, Jacksonville is allowing just 325.2 ypg which is No. 9 in the league. Jacksonville went over in its last game while Tennessee has gone over the total in four straight games which sets up a great situation as we play the under involving home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off two or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 61-28 (68.5 percent) to the under since 1983. 10* Under (101) Jacksonville Jaguars/Tennessee Titans |
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10-27-16 | Ohio v. Toledo OVER 58.5 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
After a crazy three-overtime game against Texas St. to open the season where 110 points were scored, Ohio has seen its last seven games stay under the total. A lot of that has had to do with the opposition and the matchups involved but that changes tonight. The defense has allowed 21 points or less four times but one of those came against Gardner Webb of the FCS while the other three came against offenses that are ranked No. 127, No. 117 and No. 104 in total offense and No. 123, No. 114 and No. 111 in scoring offense. Toledo is a little better than those squads as the Rockets are No. 7 in the nation in total offense and no. 13 in scoring offense. Toledo tied a season low with 31 points scored against Central Michigan last week and while its own defense has been pretty solid, it too has faced some weak offenses along the way. Throw away the three points allowed against Maine of the FCS and the Rockets have given up an average of 25.7 ppg. Two of the best defensive efforts came against Arkansas St. and Fresno St. and they are ranked No. 1245 and No. 121 respectively in scoring offense. Going back, Toledo is 12-1 to the over after having won four of its last five games while the over is 5-1 in the Bobcats last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. These teams have not met since 2010 which is not a good thing for the coaching staff to try and prepare defenses which gives the offense on both sides a clear advantage. 10* Over (103) Ohio Bobcats/(104) Toledo Rockets |
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10-27-16 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +4.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Appalachian St. is 3-0 in the Sun Belt Conference, trailing Troy by just a half-game, and it is one of only four teams that realistically has a chance to claim the conference championship. The Mountaineers were picked by many to win the conference after going 13-3 in their first two years in the Sun Belt. They have won four straight games and while dominating those games in the process, they now face their toughest test of them all despite what the record may show. Georgia Southern won the Sun Belt Conference in 2014 with a perfect 8-0 record while going 6-2 last season and with 13 starters back, it was expected to contend once again. The Eagles have not disappointed as they are 3-1 in the conference despite playing an awful schedule thus far. Five of their first seven games have been on the road including their last four contests so playing at home once again in a nationally televised games is going to have them pretty amped up. Georgia Southern has not been on this field since September 17 and it does not lose here often, going 31-3 over its last 34 home games. While Appalachian St. has been solid as road favorites the last two years, they have faced some poor teams and Georgia Southern has been a home underdog just once ever and that resulted in a 26-point outright win over Western Michigan last season. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams outrushing opponents by 50 or more ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 43-20 ATS (68.3 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (110) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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10-27-16 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 57.5 | Top | 39-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
While we are going contrarian in the first total, we are going contrarian in this total as well. Because of these runs, this is where the value comes into play as linesmakers have to set the numbers based on those runs as the public is all over big streaks. Pittsburgh opened the season with a low scoring game against Villanova of the FCS but since then, the Panthers have gone over the total in six straight games. The offense has scored at least 36 points in every one of those games but the Panthers have faced off against some pathetic defenses along the way. The best stop unit they have faced was against Georgia Tech which is ranked No. 27 in total defense. The other five teams are ranked No. 53, No. 104, No. 61, No. 113 and No. 108. Virginia Tech comes into this game ranked No. 11 in total defense and no. 16 in scoring defense so Pittsburgh is going to be tested for sure. Pittsburgh relies heavily on the ground game and Virginia Tech is about as good as anybody in the country in stopping the run as the Hokies allow 103.6 ypg and 2.9 ypc. The Virginia Tech offense has played above average this season but it is skewed a bit based on the competition and venue. The Hokies have played only two road games and managed to score just 17 points against an awful Syracuse defense and 34 points against an average North Carolina defense in hurricane conditions. The Hokies have gone under in six straight ACC road games while the Panthers are 6-2 to the under in their last eight games following a bye week. 10* Under (107) Virginia Tech Hokies/(108) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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10-26-16 | Wolves +2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
Minnesota is a very trendy pick as an NBA sleeper team this season and while the Timberwolves are a couple years away from competing in a big way, they open up the season in a good spot Wednesday. This team is loaded with young talent led by Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins and a slew of other potential up and comers and they improved by 16 wins last season from the year before and while it was still a disappointing 29-53 record, it was a huge improvement and there is room for much more. They actually played better on the road than at home a year ago and they took one of two meetings here against Memphis. The Grizzlies are laying a short price and the betting consensus is on their side because of. Unlike Minnesota which is a team on the rise, Memphis is declining and pretty quickly for that matter. This team is aging quickly and they will be going into their season opener pretty banged up with a bunch of questionable players. It has already been confirmed that starting forward Chandler Parsons will miss the season opener while both Tony Allen and Marc Gasol are not at 100 percent. The Timberwolves hired Tom Thibodeau as their head coach and he is the perfect fit for this young team to help improve the defense that finished No. 28 in shooting percentage and No. 23 in points allowed. 10* (709) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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10-26-16 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
The Cubs suffered a 6-0 loss last night which is the third time they have been shutout in the postseason but we expect that to change tonight. We are not going to be laying a big price on the road however as it is undeserved at this point based on the starting pitching as we figure both offenses have the advantage tonight. Arrieta has been struggling over his last few starts as he has a 7.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his last three games and a big reason for this is the time off between starts. He has had 12 and 8 days of rest before his first two postseason starts and he will be pitching on eight days' rest again tonight. All of these starts have been on the road but tonight presents a bigger challenge. Those first two postseason starts took place in California and now he will be pitching in very cold weather with the gametime temperature expected to be in the low 40s. He pitched in similar conditions against the Mets in the playoffs last year and was lit up. Trever Bauer lasted just two-thirds of an inning in his last start because of his lacerated pinkie finger on his throwing hand and the Indians are hoping it has healed enough not to be an issue again tonight. He has really struggled since early September as he has posted a 6.94 ERA over his last seven starts and the best part for Chicago is that Andrew Miller tossed 46 pitchers last night and will be limited tonight. After the Cubs were shutout last night, we can expect a big bounceback opportunity tonight. 10* Over (953) Chicago Cubs/(954) Cleveland Indians |
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10-25-16 | Cubs v. Indians +107 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 107 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
By virtue of the American League winning the 2016 All-Star Game, the Indians were able to claim home field advantage for the World Series despite posting a record that was nine games worse than that of the Cubs. That is a huge edge for Cleveland which was tied for Texas for the best home record in the American League at 53-28 and it opens the fall classic with its ace on the hill. Corey Kluber gets the ball and he looks to continue with what has been another fantastic season. He went 20-10 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 247 strikeouts and just 64 walks. He only had four bad starts where he allowed five or more runs and three of those were on the road with the one at home coming way back in April. He's 2-1 with a 0.98 ERA in three postseason starts, two of them coming in the AL Championship Series against the Blue Jays, one on short rest. Only Ben Zobrist and Dexter Fowler have had more than three at-bats in their career against Kluber and those two are a combined 1-for-20 with seven strikeouts. Jon Lester did have a better season but a large part of success came at home where his ERA is nearly a run and a half less than it is on the road. The Indians led the American League with 134 stolen bases and Lester is one of the worst pitchers when it comes to holding guys on and limiting stolen bases so Cleveland can take advantage to get runners in scoring position. 10* (952) Cleveland Indians |
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10-25-16 | Knicks +9.5 v. Cavs | Top | 88-117 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in Cleveland and we know what that means. The Cavaliers will be lowering their 2015-16 NBA Championship banner on Tuesday night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge event and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done. Now let's go back to the NBA Champion angle. Prior NBA Champions are usually slow starting out of the gate the following season since their lines are over-adjusted to start the season. The last 15 NBA Champions (Golden St., San Antonio, Dallas, Boston, San Antonio four times, Miami three times, Detroit and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 49-76 ATS mark (39.2 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Distractions and overvaluation are definitely keys to this. We have seen it in the season opening game for the reigning NBA Champions for seven of the last 10 seasons. The Knicks are in rebuilding mode but provide an interesting matchup for Cleveland. There is a lot of potential for this team but it will all come down to health and with this being just the first game of the season, New York is as healthy as it will be. The Rose-Anthony-Porzingis trio worked well in the only game they played together during the 2016 preseason. New York has covered four straight games in Cleveland and Tuesday presents the best opportunity to keep it going based on the situation involved. 10* (501) New York Knicks |
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10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos -8 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Denver opened the season with a 4-0 record but has since dropped its last two games, both by just one possession but that sets the Broncos up perfectly for this Monday night game. Their last loss came last Thursday so they have had extra rest as they head back home with a little revenge placed on top of it. The Texans defeated the Colts in their last game and they could very well still be celebrating that one after coming back from a 14-point deficit late in the fourth quarter and eventually winning in overtime. Houston improved to 4-0 at home but it has lost both of its road games, neither of which were even close as they dropped those games by a combined score of 58-13. Obviously the return of Brock Osweiler to Denver is the big story here and that gives the Broncos a huge advantage. The Denver defense should understand the weaknesses of Brock Osweiler better than anyone and it should be exposed Monday with the biggest being that he holds the ball way too long. The pass rush for the Broncos is sensational and this only adds to their success tonight. Additionally, their talented secondary, led by cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr., leads the league by allowing an average of just 182.3 passing ypg. On the other side, the Texans are already without J.J. Watt and their secondary took a big hit with the loss of outstanding corner Kevin Johnson while safety Quintin Demps will miss a second straight game. Denver falls into a solid situation as we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off a road loss. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (478) Denver Broncos |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Chargers finally had a game go their way as they opened up a 21-3 lead and held on for the much needed victory over the Broncos. It was just their second win on the season but are arguably the best 2-4 team in the NFL as they are getting outgained by just 8.0 ypg and have been on the other side of good luck the majority of the season. San Diego hits the road where it is winless but could be 3-0 instead of 0-3 but the line is taking that actual record into consideration and it is overinflated. It is also too high based on the start the Falcons have had as they are 4-2 but are coming off a loss last week in Seattle. Atlanta has covered five straight games which is a red flag and another sure sign of value going the other way. Atlanta has been underdogs in five straight games and now suddenly it goes to nearly a touchdown favorite and that is simply too big of a jump. The Chargers offense has been solid this season and has a good matchup against an awful Falcons defense. While winning on the road has not been happening for San Diego, they remain competitive as they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine roadies. Meanwhile the Falcons are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing road record. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 95-125 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 70-95 rushing ypg, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (469) San Diego Chargers |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 51 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Dolphins picked up a much needed win last week over Pittsburgh which snapped a two-game slide and put them in the positive for the first time yardage differential. Sure the Ben Roethlisberger injury helped as it put the Steelers offense in check but he does not play defense and the Miami offense exploded for 474 yards. This offense has the potential to do that often and last week was no anomaly as it was the first time all season long that the starting offensive line was able to play together. The good news coming out of last week is that there is not a single offensive lineman on the injury report this week. The Bills have won four straight games but it is not an overly impressive run. They defeated the Cardinals who are simply not right and were on the east coast for an early game, the Patriots who were down to the third string quarteback, the Rams who have been outgained in all but two games and the 49ers who are just plain terrible. Because of the streak, Buffalo is favored on the road and should not be. The Bills go some bad news as LeSean McCoy will be out for this game because of a hamstring injury. Additionally, the Bills are part of a contrarian rushing situation that even stings more with McCoy not playing. We play against road favorites that are outrushing their opponents by 40 or more ypg on the season, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 100-57 ATS (63.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (462) Miami Dolphins |
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10-23-16 | Vikings v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
The Minnesota bandwagon is pretty full right now and rightfully so. The Vikings are 5-0 to start the season, have covered all five of those games and going back to the start of last season, they are 19-3 ATS which is pretty incredible. We are stepping in front of this bandwagon however as the Minnesota schedule, which looked tough at the start of the season, has not been as all five of the opponents have been underachieving with the exception of Tennessee. While they are winning and covering, the Vikings are not dominating as they are outgaining opponents by just 15 ypg. The Eagles have dropped two straight games following a 3-0 start but both of those losses came on the road. They were completely outplayed last week against the Redskins but should have won in Detroit the previous week as they outgained the Lions by 102 total yards but lost by a point. In its two home games, Philadelphia dominated in both winning by a combined score of 63-13 and outgaining the Browns and Steelers by a combined 290 yards. We have two situations in our favor as well. First, we play on underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 36-12 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-23-16 | Saints +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
We won with the Chiefs last week over the Raiders and that was mostly a play against Oakland which has now been outgained in all six of its games this season. Kansas City returns home where it is 2-0 but one win needed a miracle comeback against San Diego and the other win came against the hapless Jets. The Chiefs have been outgained in three of their five games this season and while last week was the most dominant performance as far as stats go, the weather played a big part in that as the conditions were totally against the Raiders gameplan. New Orleans has won two straight games following a 0-3 start but two of those three losses could have and should have been victories. The Saints lost in the finals seconds against Oakland and then lost on a last second field goal against the Giants. The defense remains the enigma but we are far from sold on the Kansas City offense to take full advantage. Drew Brees is having a great season thus far as he is tied for third in the NFL with 14 touchdowns and is one of just six quarterbacks with a QB rating of more than 100. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won two out of their last three games, playing a losing team. This situation is 77-39 ATS (66.4 percent) since 1983. Additionally, New Orleans is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog while the Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. 10* (455) New Orleans Saints |
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10-23-16 | Redskins v. Lions -1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
The Redskins are tied with the Bills for the second longest current winning streak in the league with four consecutive victories. It is a deceiving run however. While Washington dominated Philadelphia last week, it was outgained by both the Giants and Browns while it outgained the Ravens by just four total yards. The Redskins are 2-0 on the road but benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown in Baltimore while needing a last minute field goal in New York. Detroit comes in at 3-3 after having won its last two games. While it can be argued they could have lost the last two games, it can also be argued that it could have won two games it lost against the Titans and Bears. Also, the Lions nearly pulled off a miraculous comeback against the Packers. The offense has not missed a beat with the absence of Calvin Johnson as Matthew Stafford is third in the NFL with a 106.0 QB rating while throwing 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions. This is a big game to keep pace in the NFC North as this is the third straight home game and they hit the road to face Houston and Minnesota over the next two weeks. Defensively, the Lions need to force more turnovers as their four takeaways are third fewest in the league. Washington falls into a negative situation as we play against teams that are coming off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 75-30 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (458) Detroit Lions |
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10-22-16 | Ohio State v. Penn State +19.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 57 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the PENN ST. NITTANY LIONS for our Saturday Star Attraction. Ohio St. narrowly escaped Madison with a victory last Saturday night and while things are expected to be easier this week based on the much higher pointspread, it should not be as easy as most expect. The Buckeyes needed overtime to defeat the Badgers and in their only other road game, even though it resulted in a 21-point win over Oklahoma, they outgained the Sooners by just 39 total yards. The atmosphere on Saturday will be the toughest they have seen thus far this season. Penn St. is 4-2 which is the fifth straight year it has started at least 4-2 and the last four seasons, it has been a loss to Ohio St. that ended the solid run to start. Both losses at home have been very competitive games however including the last game played here that went into double overtime before the Buckeyes prevailed 31-24. The Nittany Lions have won two straight games including their best effort of the season against Maryland but most important, they are coming off a bye week so the extra prep time and rest will be a big advantage especially after the Ohio St. close call last week in a very physical game against Wisconsin. Running back Saquon Barkley is coming off the best game of his career and will look to do the same against the Buckeyes while quarterback Trace McSorley has shown the ability to make big plays both with his are and his legs. The Nittany Lions have a very strong situation in their favor as we play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points after two or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (404) Penn St. Nittany Lions |
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10-22-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs +125 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 125 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
It has been 71 years since the Cubs last made it to the World Series and they have a chance to break that curse tonight. It certainly will not be easy based on who they are facing but they have momentum from two straight wins which had added some value to this number. Chicago was last here in this spot back in 2003 when it had a 3-2 series lead but failed to win either of the final two games against the Marlins. Only 10 teams in MLB history has won Games Six and Seven on the road and the Cubs will try and break their six-game losing streak in pennant-clinching games. Clayton Kershaw has appeared in four postseason games for the Dodgers and they have won all four of those games. He is coming off his best start where he allowed no runs on just two hits over seven innings in Game Two. His other two starts against Washington were average at best and while going against one of the greatest pitchers of all time is never easy, his postseason struggles can pop up at any time. Kyle Hendricks used his command and trademark changeup to become the first Cub since 1945 to win the NL ERA title. He was 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA over 190 innings, and grew more effective late in the season (7-1, 1.72 in his last 11 starts). He took the loss against the Dodgers in Game Two as he allowed a home run to Adrian Gonzalez which was the only run scored in the game. He has a 2.02 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers this season, both coming at home. Even with the Game Two loss, the Cubs are 8-2 in his last 10 home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (910) Chicago Cubs |
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10-22-16 | Tulane +11 v. Tulsa | Top | 27-50 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 10 m | Show |
As has been the case numerous times, some losses are tougher to get over than others and Tulsa is in that spot this Saturday. The Golden Hurricane had a great opportunity to take down Houston as they rallied back from a 14-point fourth quarter deficit to tie the game at 31 but them fumbled the ball late in the quarter which the Cougars ran back for a touchdown. They then put together a 74-yard drive in just over a minute but were stopped twice inside the Houston two-yard line to end the game. That will be tough to overcome. Tulane is off to a 3-3 start and those three wins have already matched its win total from both 2014 and 2015 showing what a solid job head coach Willie Fritz in doing in his first season in New Orleans. The quality of the losses is a sign of the turnaround as the three defeats have come by just 20 points combined and those were against teams with an overall record of 14-4. Fritz came over from Georgia Southern which is known for its rushing ability and he has instilled that here in Tulane. The Green Wave are averaging 233.7 ypg on the ground, double of what they averaged last season, which is No. 22 in the country and they will square off against a Tulsa defense that is allowing 174.2 ypg rushing so Tulane will be able to move the ball unlike last week as Memphis has a much better defense. Going back, Tulsa is just 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points while the Green Wave are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (375) Tulane Green Wave |
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10-22-16 | TCU +6.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
It has been a disappointing start for TCU which is 4-2 on the season but situations have not gone its way. The Horned Frogs lost to Arkansas in overtime despite outgaining the Razorbacks by 169 yards and then they had to face Oklahoma which was coming off a bad loss against Ohio St. and had won 32 straight regular season games following a defeat coming in to that one. They followed that one up with a lackluster effort against Kansas and snuck out of there with a one-point win but the good news is that TCU is coming off a bye week so the extra time off could not have come at a better time. West Virginia is off to a perfect 5-0 start and will look to start 6-0 for the first time since 2006. This is the toughest test however and they are favored by double the points than they were in their last home game against Kansas St. West Virginia's defense will have to try and find a way to slow down TCU quarterback Kenny Hill, who has passed for 2,142 yards and 12 touchdowns and he is tied for the team lead with seven rushing touchdowns. This is a very balanced attack from the Horned Frogs that will keep the 3-3-5 defense off balanced. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams averaging 440 or more ypg, after gaining 475 or more total ypg over their last 3 games. This situation is 39-16 ATS (70.9 percent) over the last 5 seasons. Additionally, TCU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off a conference win by 7 points or less while West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 10* (325) TCU Horned Frogs |
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10-22-16 | Texas A&M +18.5 v. Alabama | Top | 14-33 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our Saturday Enforcer. The game of the day rolls into Tuscaloosa as Texas A&M looks for the big upset on the road. The last time the Aggies came here to face a top ranked Alabama team, they walked out with a 29-24 outright victory and this game has a lot of similar feel to that one. Alabama is the clear cut no. 1 team in the country and while many think it is unbeatable, that is hardly the case. The Crimson Tide are coming off their most complete effort of the season but all that does is give us additional line value and this number has already risen 2.5 points from its opening. One big factor that Alabama could have issues with is the Texas A&M offensive line as this is the toughest one the Tide have seen this season. The Aggies have allowed just five sacks while running back Trayveon Williams is averaging 8.6 ypc and that is on 82 carries showing how dominant he has been. Backing that up is quarterback Trevor Knights and his 7.7 ypc and he has arguably the best top to bottom receivers in the country who can thrive against the weak Alabama secondary. We have two situations in our favor here. First, we play against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are allowing 100 or fewer rushing ypg, after allowing 1.0 or less rushing ypc last game. This situation is 41-12 ATS (77.4 percent) since 1992. Second, we play on road underdogs after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or greater. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (405) Texas A&M Aggies |
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10-22-16 | North Carolina v. Virginia +9.5 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -112 | 51 h 26 m | Show |
It has been a very uneven season for head coach Bronco Mendenhall in his first season at Virginia but he has his team trending in the right direction. After an embarrassing home loss to Richmond of the FCS and a blowout defeat at Oregon the following week, the Cavaliers have turned things around. They are 2-2 since then and while that may not seem overly impressive, Virginia won the yardage battle in both losses so this recent record could easily be 4-0. Last week in the 14-point loss to Pittsburgh, Virginia allowed a defensive and a special team touchdown which was the ultimate difference. North Carolina is off to a 5-2 start which does include a win against FCS member James Madison and the Tar Heels have been inconsistent in the other games. They have been outgained in three of the six games against FBS opponents and there should be a letdown this week following their upset win at Miami last week. The team that best establishes its running game could see the most success in this potential shootout. Both teams rank poorly in the rushing defense category, with the Tar Heels allowing 216 ypg on the ground. This will be the 121st meeting between the two teams so the Cavaliers will be out to snap a six-game skid in the series and while it may not seem like it, they can remain in the hunt in ACC Coastal with a victory. Virginia is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 37 points or more last game. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (336) Virginia Cavaliers |
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10-22-16 | Central Florida -3.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the UCF KNIGHTS for our AAC Game of the Year. We played against UCF last week and came away with a late win on Temple as the Owls drove 70 yards on four plays in just 31 seconds to score the game winning touchdown. In some cases, a devastating loss like that could carry over but that is not the case with the Knights which are now 3-3 and that record could easily be 5-1 as another one of their losses came in overtime against Maryland. Head coach Scott Frost reiterated that fact as well. "Just stick together. They've come too far to quit now. One more play here and there and this team could be 5-1. Nobody would have said we could be 5-1 when we started this thing. I don't think many people thought we could be 3-3. We're close to being a really good team. It won't be very long around here before we're winning all these games." After a 0-12 season a year ago, there will be no quit in this team. Connecticut is 3-1 at home but the wins have been pretty unimpressive and overall on the season, the Huskies have been outgained in five of their six games against FBS teams. Connecticut falls into a negative situation as we play against teams that are averaging between 3 to 3.5 ypc going up against teams allowing between 3 to 3.5 ypc, after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, under head coach Bob Diaco, Connecticut is 5-13 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses. 10* (359) UCF Knights |
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10-22-16 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas +24 | Top | 44-20 | Push | 0 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS for our Saturday Afternoon Dominator. Oklahoma St. is 4-2 on the season but has been outgained in three of its five games against FBS foes. The Cowboys were fortunate to defeat Pittsburgh at home, beat Texas despite getting outgained and most recent, are coming off a narrow win against Iowa St. at home where they had to rally from a fourth quarter deficit. This is a very underachieving team that has no business laying this type of number on the road and historically, it has been a losing proposition. Going back to 2011, in their last five games when favored by 20 or more points on the road, the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS. Kansas snapped a 15-game losing streak in its season opener as it defeated Rhode Island and even though that was against an FCS team, there was a pretty big celebration because of it. The Jayhawks came out flat in their next game and since then three of the last four games have come on the road. The only home game resulted in a one-point loss against TCU in a game they could have won if not for three missed field goals in the fourth quarter. Other than a hideous performance against Texas Tech, when the Red Raiders threw for eight touchdowns, the Jayhawks have defended the pass adequately. In the five other games combined, opponents have completed 47.9 percent of their passes. Oklahoma St. is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games versus teams averaging 120 or fewer rushing ypg. The home team has covered the last five meetings in this series including a pair of covers by Kansas as it lost both game by just 13 points combined. 10* (332) Kansas Jayhawks |
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10-21-16 | South Florida v. Temple +7 | Top | 30-46 | Win | 100 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
Temple won a big game for us last Saturday as the Owls rallied from a 25-7 deficit to pull off the minor upset over Central Florida thanks to a late drive that resulted in the winning touchdown with just a second remaining in the game. Temple is now 4-3 on the season following arguably its best season in program history a year ago when it went 10-4 and here we are again with the Owls getting the no respect card. While the Owls have not defeated anyone of real significance either, seven-point losses against 5-1 Memphis and 4-2 Penn St. can certainly be considered quality defeats. Especially the one against the Tigers where they won the yardage battle 531-327 but allowed a defensive score and a special teams touchdown. South Florida is off to a 6-1 start but has not won a single quality game. In the Bulls five FBS wins, three conference wins have come against teams a combined 1-8 in the AAC while the other two victories have come against 1-6 Northern Illinois and 3-4 Syracuse. The lone defeat came against Florida St. and while at the time it was a quality defeat, that is not the case anymore as the Seminoles are struggling. Temple was ranked No. 21 in the nation when these teams met last season and the Owls got thumped 44-23 so there is huge revenge on the board for Friday. Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams allowing 425 or more ypg while going 11-3 in 14 games under head coach Matt Rhule against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. 10* (310) Temple Owls |
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10-20-16 | BYU v. Boise State -7 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -103 | 32 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our Thursday Star Attraction. Boise St. will be out for a little payback this week following an 11-point loss at BYU last season and they are in excellent position to do so while coming through with the cover as well. At 6-0, many are saying the Broncos are struggling since they have not been dominating teams like they have in the past but at this point, wins are wins and because of some of the closer than expected games, the linesmakers have had to make adjustments. They are now favored by single digits for the first time all season and for just the second time in their last 10 regular season games going back to last season. Boise St. has won its last 16 home games as a single digit favorite going back to the 1998 season whole covering 15 of those games. The only non-cover happened to come against BYU in a 7-6 win here in 2012. The Cougars have won three straight games including a home win over Toledo, a road win over Michigan St. which is not looking nearly as good as it once did and an overtime win over Mississippi St. last Friday. That makes this a great spot to go against BYU especially considering it has lost the yardage battle in four of six games. Most of that is due to a horrible passing defense that is going to get exploited here by Brett Rypien who is ranked No. 14 in the country in passing efficiency. Going back, the Cougars are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (308) Boise St. Broncos |
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10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
Both Green Bay and Chicago have seen their offenses struggle this season as they are ranked No. 17 and No. 31 respectively in points per game. The defenses are also both ranked in the latter half of the league so we have a good opportunity for the offenses to bust out. The Packers scoring output has declined in each of its last three games but as those games progressed, the defenses got better each time. Chicago meanwhile has scored more than 17 points only once this season which is pretty shocking considering it is ranked No. 7 in yards per game but part of the problem is down and distance as the Bears are ranked No. 28 in third down conversions and No. 30 in fourth down conversions. That has not been the problem for Green Bay which is ranked No. 1 in third down conversions at 49.3 percent. They have only 102 first downs which is tied for No. 26 and because of that, the offense does not have the ball much. The 104.3 quarterback rating for Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers in 17 career games against the Bears is the highest of the quarterbacks who have attempted at least 175 passes against Chicago in their careers. Chicago falls into a great over situation as we play the over involving teams that are averaging between 14 to 18 ppg going up against teams averaging between (18 to 23 ppg, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 137-84 (62 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (301) Chicago Bears/(302) Green Bay Packers |
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10-20-16 | LA Sparks +6 v. Minnesota Lynx | Top | 77-76 | Win | 100 | 59 h 24 m | Show |
This is exactly what the WNBA brass was hoping for when the playoff format was changed, the two best teams squaring off in the finals and the series going to a deciding final game. Los Angeles and Minnesota have gone back and forth in the Finals, each team alternating wins and while the last three games have not been as close as expected, we should see this final game come down to the wire just like Game One. The Sparks never got their game going in Game Four as they were outrebounded 41-25 and managed just 30 points in the paint, down from 52 points in the previous game. The difference was that Candice Parker was off her game, going just 4-14 from the floor and now with this being the biggest game of her career, all will be left on the floor. Even with the Game Four struggles from most of the core players, Los Angeles kept the game close and despite the change in venue for the last game, we can expect to see it again. as mentioned in previous game analysis, these two teams are very evenly matched and Minnesota is again hit with an inflated line at home. Five of the seven games in this series have been won by the road team and it would not be surprising to see that streak continue on Thursday. The Sparks have a solid situation on their side as we play on teams that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 59-27 ATS (68.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (609) Los Angeles Sparks |
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10-20-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech -6 | Top | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our Thursday Enforcer. We played against Virginia Tech last week and while we were not thinking the Hokies would lose outright as a 23-point underdog, we are glad they did as they are in a great this week. They were coming off a revenge win over East Carolina and were likely looking ahead to this game against Miami, which also happens to be a revenge game, so Virginia Tech clearly was not focused last week. Miami got off to a solid 4-0 start but has lost its last two games each by a possession and while the season is not yet lost, it is slipping quickly. The Hurricanes have been outgained in each of their last three games which happened to be all three conference games. The Hokies have a big edge on offense as Miami is thin on defense, and the Hurricanes might be without three key defensive linemen. Demetrius Jackson is out, Chad Thomas is listed as questionable and Gerald Willis will miss a second straight game so the Hokies tempo could wear out a thin defensive line rotation. Virginia Tech was outgained for the first time last week and while Frank Beamer was a legendary head coach, Justin Fuente is quickly proving he is one of the best young coaches in the game. Thursday night in Blacksburg is never an easy time for opponents and the Hokies have covered 21 of their last 31 Thursday games while Miami is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite. 10* (304) Virginia Tech Hokies |
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10-19-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Toronto kept its postseason going for at least one more day and while it is in good shape to extend this series to a Game Six and head back to Cleveland, we are not thrilled with the number the Blue Jays are being asked to lay. That being said, the total is what we are going after today as the offenses have a chance to wake up after a slow start to the series. In total through four games, there have been just 17 runs scored so it comes as no surprise that all four of those games went under the total. We take the contrarian route here with this Wednesday total that actually seems to have some value in it. There is no denying this series could get awfully interesting now that Toronto has life and Cleveland is sending such a uniquely inexperienced arm out for Game Five. Ryan Merritt will be making just his second career Major League start and while his first one 19 days ago was pretty solid against the Royals, the magnitude of this one is a touch bigger. This is a game where the Blue Jays bats can wake up in potentially their final home game of the season. Marco Estrada is coming off a solid effort in Cleveland in his first start in this series and he has now allowed two runs or less in five straight starts. However, only one of those was at home and he has not been at his best here as he has a 5.03 ERA in his last 10 starts at the Rogers Centre. The over is 5-1 in his last six home starts while the over is 16-3 in the Indians last 19 games after batting .200 or worse over a five game span. 10* Over (903) Cleveland Indians/(904) Toronto Blue Jays |
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10-18-16 | Cubs -118 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The Cubs lost a tough one on Sunday as Clayton Kershaw completely shut them down as they had just two hits overall giving the Dodgers the home field edge heading into Game Three. The Los Angeles offense has not been much better however as it managed only three hits in that 1-0 victory and it will be tested again big time tonight. The Dodgers home field advatnage is pretty solid but when it comes to this matchup, it flips the other way. The Cubs are 19-6 in their last 26 games following a loss while going 21-6 in their last 27 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Jake Arrieta has the task of giving the advantage back to Chicago and while it is not a must win, it is pretty close to that. Arrieta tossed a quality outing in his first postseason start against the Giants and while he has not been as dominant as he was early in the season, he is still in top form. He has faced the Dodgers twice the last two years and has allowed no runs on two hits over 16 combined innings. Rich Hill has not been very effective of late as he has gone five straight starts without a quality outing and has a 4.84 ERA over that stretch with the Dodgers losing four of those five games. Los Angeles is giving him just 2.9 rpg of support and not much more should be expected tonight. 10* (953) Chicago Cubs |
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10-17-16 | Jets +7.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is a big game for both sides and could define the rest of the season. A fifth loss for the Jets would be devastating and likely end any sort of playoff hopes as there are already nine teams in the AFC with .500 or better records. The NFC has 10 teams are .500 or better so the Cardinals cannot afford to slip up much either but based on this spread, they are a much more dominant team than the Jets and that is simply not the case. Both quarterbacks, Carson Palmer and Ryan Fitzpatrick have played below average but the difference in this game could come down to the running game in the trenches and that is where New York has the advantage. The Cardinals will be playing without both of their starting guards because of ankle injuries as right guard Evan Mathis is on IR and Mike Iupati is expected to miss at least one to two more weeks. Both John Wetzel and Earl Watford filled in adequately last week but the competition gets a lot tougher this week against the Jets ferocious defensive line. On the other side, the Cardinals allow 4.6 ypc and 118.2 ypg on the ground, so the opportunity is there if the Jets offensive line is able to control the trenches. The Jets have two great situations on their side. First, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are being outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 91-52 ATS (63.6 percent) since 1983. Secondly, we play on road teams after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last three games, in October games. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Arizona 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points and 0-6 ATS in its last six Monday games. 10* (277) New York Jets |
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10-16-16 | Minnesota Lynx +2 v. LA Sparks | Top | 85-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
The Sparks won for us on Friday and they have a chance to win the series tonight but Minnesota is not going to let that happen. Surprisingly, as evenly matched as these two teams are, two of the first three games have turned out to be blowouts and while we can expect a closer game on Sunday than what we have seen the last two games, the Lynx are not going away without a fight. The last two games have been complete opposites as for the teams. On Friday, the Sparks outrebounded Minnesota, 29-24, and buried 54.9 percent of their field goals while the Lynx looked exactly like the Sparks did in Game Two as no player scored more than 14 points and they only went 3-11 from beyond the arc. Like Game Two for Los Angeles, Game Three for Minnesota was an aberration. You would expect the team playing in its first Finals, not in its fifth, to make the mistakes the Lynx made. After holding the Sparks to 60 points in Game Two, tying their season low, they gave up 92 in Game Three, allowing a more aggressive Nneka Ogwumike and Candace Parker to get going and that is where they need to buckle down on Sunday. The situation tonight is on the Minnesota side as we play on teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 85 or more points, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Lynx have covered five straight games following a loss. 10* (653) Minnesota Lynx |
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10-16-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs +121 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Typically, the first look in this game would be on the Dodgers which lost Game One and would like nothing more than to produce a split before heading home. However, this line is completely wrong as it is based on the starting pitching names and nothing else. Giving up five runs in the eighth inning last night is a brutal way to lose a game especially after tying it up in the top half of the inning and that is a tough one to recover from. The Cubs have been a home underdog only once this entire season and that was with Jason Hammel on the hill, not Kyle Hendricks who has quietly put together a Cy Young season. He is 16-8 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 31 starts and those numbers are even better at home. In 15 Wrigley Field starts, he is 9-2 with a 1.45 ERA and 0.87 WHIP and he has allowed more than two runs only five times the entire season. The only reason he is a home dog here is because of Clayton Kershaw opposing him and while Kershaw is one of the best, the line is inflated simply because of who he is. He is coming off the Game Five, two-out save against Washington but what is lost in that series is the fact that he struggles with his starts which has been the case for him during his postseason career. He allowed eight runs in 11.2 innings and his postseason career ERA has ballooned to 4.79. 10* (908) Chicago Cubs |
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10-16-16 | Falcons v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. After losing their season opener, the Falcons have won four straight games including three on the road. They have looked dominant the last two weeks against Carolina and Denver but at this point in the season, both of those teams look like they have taken a step back so those wins are not quite as good as they would have looked last season. Speaking of last season, remember the Falcons started the season 5-0 and went on to lose eight of their last 11 games and we can expect another digression this season. The Seahawks are off to a 3-1 start and are coming off their bye week which is a good thing for them to rest some injuries, especially for quarterback Russell Wilson. Seattle has won the yardage battle in all four of its games including both home games by 138 yards and 164 yards. Granted, those were against a couple of losing teams but in this case we fell that the Falcons are an overrated bunch right now. The Falcons have a negative situation as we play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 62-32 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Seattle is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games against teams that are allowing 375 or more ypg. The Falcons are allowing 388.8 ypg which is No. 26 in the league. 10* (272) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Chiefs have had two weeks to stew over its blowout loss at Pittsburgh prior to their bye week so we will see a full out effort this Sunday. Kansas City is in a must win spot here as a loss puts it three games behind the Raiders in the AFC West. The Raiders are one of the biggest surprises in the NFL as they are off to a 4-1 start to take the early division lead. However, they are the most overrated divisional leader and that is proven by the fact that they have been outgained in all five games this season. Give them credit for winning close games but that is eventually going to switch. Kansas City has two very favorable situations on its side. First, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 in conference games, off a non-cover where the team won as a favorite. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on road teams in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg scoring differential., after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or less while Oakland is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 home games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (269) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-16-16 | Steelers v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Dolphins are riding a two-game losing streak after arguably their worst game of the season last week at home against Tennessee as they lost 30-17 and were outgained by 198 total yards. Now they go from a 2.5-point favorite to over a touchdown underdog at home and that is a huge line shift. Teams are typically not as bad as their last game and not as good as they were in their last game and that is what the public is seeing with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are coming off a pair of blowout wins at home over the Chiefs and Jets and those results are inflating this line as well. Pittsburgh was destroyed in its last road game at Philadelphia and in its other road game at Washington, it won by 22 points but outgained the Redskins by just 53 total yards. Here, we play against favorites that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 32-7 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Pittsburgh is 5-15 ATS in its 20 road games after covering the spread in four out of its last five games and under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 9-18 ATS in its last 27 road games after allowing 14 points or less last game. The Dolphins meanwhile are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a non-losing road record. 10* (258) Miami Dolphins |
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10-16-16 | Bengals +9 v. Patriots | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We made a bad call going against the Patriots last week as the return of Tom Brady went a lot better than what was expected. Because of that, New England is laying a huge number against a team that may not be as good as the Patriots but it is not that much worse than what this number is telling us. Granted, the Patriots are a different team with Brady behind center however they did go 3-1 without him and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by 32.2 ypg. The Bengals are coming off a loss at Dallas last week to fall to 2-3 on the season but despite that losing record, they are outgaining opponents by 27.8 ypg which shows how close these teams are to each other. The Patriots have a game at Pittsburgh next week followed by a road revenge at Buffalo the following week so the chance of a lookahead is always there. The Bengals has a great situation on their side as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 that are coming off a road loss. This situation is 104-59 ATS (63.8 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while going 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss. 10* (251) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-15-16 | Temple +4 v. Central Florida | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 58 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our Saturday Enforcer. After going 0-12 last season, Central Florida is off to a solid 3-2 start but it is a skewed record in a way. One victory came against South Carolina St. of the FCS while the win at East Carolina was fortunate even though it was by 18 points. East Carolina outgained the Knights 521-373 but was done in by five turnovers including one interception that was returned for a touchdown. Additionally, the Knights returned a kickoff for a touchdown so the bounces definitely went their way. Temple is off to a 3-3 start following the sensational 10-4 season a year ago. The Nittany Lions lost at Penn St. by a touchdown in a game they were in throughout and the most recent loss at Memphis is similar to the Knights most recent win but just the opposite. The Owls outgained Memphis 531-327 but they committed three turnovers and were just 4-15 on third down. One of the turnovers came on a 23-yard interception return for a touchdown and after getting to within a touchdown in the fourth quarter, Memphis returned a kickoff 95 yards for a score. So we have a pair of misleading games going against each other and that is important because this line is based on the final scores and not the stats. Temple falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs after outgaining their last opponent by 225 or more total yards. This situation is 143-82 ATS (63.6 percent) over the last five seasons. The Knights are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games while the Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. 10* (129) Temple Owls |
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10-15-16 | Southern Miss v. LSU OVER 57 | Top | 10-45 | Loss | -107 | 58 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES/LSU TIGERS OVER for our Saturday Totals Dominator. This could be considered a contrarian totals play based on the fact that LSU has stayed under the total in each of its first five games this season and that is certainly part of it but additionally, the matchup calls for a quick paced game. The Golden Eagles are ranked No. 7 in the country in total offense with 531 ypg while averaging 318.7 passing ypg and 40.2 ppg. There were reports early in the week that Southern Mississippi senior quarterback Nick Mullens was uncertain about this game but he has been upgraded to probable so the offense should not miss a beat. The Tigers might have turned a corner in the first game under interim coach Ed Orgeron with 634 yards, a school record in SEC play, in a 42-7 win over Missouri. Both defenses are ranked pretty high as Southern Mississippi is No 16 while LSU is No. 21 but The Golden Eagles have played a very easy schedule while the Tigers have played no one with a pulse on offense. Southern Mississippi defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro said the LSU offense may throw a few new wrinkles at them while offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson said he figures to see a base Tigers defense. LSU is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game while the over is 5-2 in the Golden Eagles last seven non-conference games. 10* Over (151) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(152) LSU Tigers |
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10-15-16 | Virginia Tech v. Syracuse +20 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 1 m | Show |
Virginia Tech is off to a solid 4-1 start following its blowout win at North Carolina. While that 31-point victory may look good, it is a bit deceiving as that game was played in horrible weather conditions and the Hokies benefitted from four North Carolina turnovers. Virginia Tech is now ranked No. 17 in the nation and that is a partial reason this line is inflated. Syracuse fell to 2-4 on the season after a 28-9 loss at Wake Forest last week but that is another skewed game where it was played in horrible weather and despite the 19-point defeat, Syracuse was outgained by just four total yards. That was the third straight game away from home for the Orange and they are back in the Carrier Dome for the first time since September 17. They are 1-2 at home but the two losses came against 4-1 Louisville and 5-1 South Florida. While Virginia Tech can be considered an elite opponent as well, the line for this is out of control as it is the most points Syracuse has gotten at home since it faced No. 1 Clemson last season and lost by just 10 points. This is a much better Syracuse team than the record shows and while the home field is not a great one, the situation is a great one especially considering that the Hokies play this coming Thursday at home in a revenge game against Miami. The Hokies are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a losing home record while the Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (128) Syracuse Orange |
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10-15-16 | Northwestern v. Michigan State -4 | Top | 54-40 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our Big Ten Game of the Year. Michigan St. is having a dreadful season thus far. After coming into the preseason as the No. 12 ranked team in the AP Poll, the Spartans have fallen completely out following three straight losses. A loss to Wisconsin looks bad on the scoreboard but they actually outgained the Badgers, they lost to Indiana in overtime on the road but won the yardage battle there too and last week, it was no doubt an ugly loss. Now is the time to b ounce back and they get to do so against a poor Northwestern team with a pointspread loaded with value. The Wildcats last played two weeks ago and pulled the upset over Iowa but it is pretty clear that the Hawkeyes are not a very good team either. The only other victory came against Duke where they outgained the Blue Devils by just 10 total yards. For Michigan St., starting quarterback Tyler O'Connor was replaced late last week against BYU by Damion Terry, and both are listed as the possible starter this week along with Brian Lewerke. This is not necessarily a bad thing for the Spartans as it gives Duke all sorts of problems in who to prepare for. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss while the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS win. 10* (144) Michigan St. Spartans |
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10-15-16 | Western Michigan -11 v. Akron | Top | 41-0 | Win | 100 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
The Broncos will face off against Akron this weekend in a battle of the top contenders in the MAC, as the Broncos hold the No. 1 spot in the MAC West and the Zips have the top spot in the MAC East. Western Michigan has won six straight games for its best start since 1941 and entered the Top 25 for the first time ever at No. 24. While this could be considered a play against situation because of that alone, this team is focused in the job at hand and will certainly not be taking the Zips lightly. Despite all of the continued success, in the weekly press conference held for the football team, head coach P.J. Fleck assured their fans that he and the rest of the Western Michigan football team are not stopping at six wins. The Broncos are ranked in the top 30 in scoring offense, total offense, scoring defense and total defense. The Broncos shouldn't have much trouble moving the ball against the, who are near the bottom of the conference in all major defensive statistical categories. Nationally, Akron is ranked No. 109 in total defense and No. 102 in scoring defense. The Zips are off to a solid 4-2 start on the season but one of those wins came against VMI of the FCS and they have been outgained in four of their five games against FBS competition. Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after scoring 42 or more points last game while the Zips are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (115) Western Michigan Broncos |
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10-15-16 | Kansas v. Baylor -34 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 56 h 45 m | Show |
Typically, we shy away from pointspreads that are as big as this one is but we have a great situation at hand with Baylor. The Jayhawks are actually coming off a great game against TCU that is feasibly should have won. Kansas won the yardage battle 470-366 but committed four turnovers and its only two touchdowns came by way of TCU turnovers. The Jayhawks missed a 54-yard field goal as time expired that would have won the game and that was the third straight possession that resulted in a missed field goal. While a win would have had us go against Kansas as well, a loss like that makes this next game that much worse. This is a very unique situation for Baylor. Not many teams get up for Kansas and while it can be said the Bears may not be getting super charged up, they are not going to look past the Jayhawks either. The close game last week is one reason but the other is that Baylor is coming off a bye and has a bye next week which is the unique situation referenced earlier. The Bears are off to a 5-0 start and are outgaining opponents by an average of 227.4 ypg and while the schedule has helped with that, Kansas is not any better than the teams they have already faced. Going back, Baylor is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games after gaining 525 or more total ypg over its last two games. Meanwhile, Kansas is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games and going back further, it has covered just seven of its last 30 road games. 10* (184) Baylor Bears |
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10-15-16 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech +1 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -118 | 52 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our Saturday Afternoon Dominator. Texas Tech is coming off a loss at Kansas St. last week to fall to 3-2 on the season, both losses coming on the road. The loss to the Wildcats was one of the biggest misleading final scores from last weekend as Texas Tech outgained the Wildcats 592-335 and had 12 more first downs but went 0-3 on fourth down. The Red Raiders five touchdown drives were all 68 yards or more which inflated the yardage but they tossed an interception that was returned 35 yards for a touchdown and also gave up a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Basically, it was a game the Red Raiders should have won. Now they are catching points at home because of that misleading final score along with the fact that West Virginia comes into this game undefeated and ranked No. 20 in the most recent AP Poll. The Mountaineers have not had this good of a start since 2012 so this year is a bit of an overreaction and they will have a tough matchup here. West Virginia is No. 64 in the nation in passing defense. The Mountaineers have allowed 909 passing yards to their opponents and four of their nine touchdowns allowed have been through the air. On average, West Virginia gives up 227.3 ypg and the Red Raiders will be able to move the ball all day. This is the first true road game for the Mountaineers which are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record while Texas Tech is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 home games after gaining 575 or more total yards in its previous game. 10* (156) Texas Tech Red Raiders |
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10-14-16 | Mississippi State +7.5 v. BYU | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 58 h 9 m | Show |
BYU pulled off the upset in East Lansing last week as it defeated Michigan St. 31-14. It was a rare inflated victory as prior to that, the Cougars prior five games this season were all decided by three points or less. It was the second straight win for BYU to improve to 3-3 on the season but a much more impressive 5-1 ATS, one of only eight teams in the nation with at least five wins against the spread and that is giving us value in this inflated number. It has been a disappointing start for Mississippi St. as it is 2-3 following a home loss against Auburn last week. That was the Bulldogs worst loss of the season after the first two defeats came by a combined four points. They have dropped two straight against the number but have covered their only game this season when getting at least a touchdown. This is a game with two potent offenses that like to play fast and is a game that could go either way so the spread is definitely in our favor. Going back, the Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss while the Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams from the SEC. Additionally, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams that are outrushing opponents by 50 or more ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 41-20 ATS (67.2 percent) over the last five seasons. On top of that. Mississippi St. is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after playing its last game at home. 10* (111) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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10-14-16 | Minnesota Lynx v. LA Sparks -1.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Minnesota broke the home team jinx in the season series as it snapped a four-game winning streak by the road team with a 79-60 blowout win on Tuesday. With Los Angeles taking Game One, it grabbed the home court edge in the best of five series and that will be big in Game Three. The Sparks went 16-3 at home this season with two of those losses coming against Minnesota but we feel the streak finally gets broken here. Los Angeles had one of its worst shooting game of the season in Game Two as it was 23-70 (32.9 percent) from the floor and take away the 5-6 shooting from Nneka Ogwumike and the other four starters were a combined 14-48 (22.6 percent). This was a big aberration and while the Minnesota defense is solid, it is not that type of solid. The Sparks missed 17 of 20 three-pointers in Game Two after leading the league in three-point shooting during the season so we will definitely see a bounce back at home. The Sparks have a solid situation on their side as we play on home teams that are revenging a road loss versus opponent by 10 points or more, playing their third game or less in 10 days. This situation is 123-72 ATS (63.1 percent) since 1997. These teams are separated by just a game and a half in their overall records yet Minnesota was favored by 6.5 and 7 points in the first two games yet Los Angeles is favored by just 1.5 points at home and that variance does not make any sense. 10* (652) Los Angeles Sparks |
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10-14-16 | Blue Jays +124 v. Indians | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
This is a very evenly matched series between the Blue Jays and Indians and while Cleveland has the home field advantage, that is not something that should come into play here. Cleveland took the season series four games to three but the coring differential is the story as the Blue Jays outscored the Indians 38-24 with all three of their Cleveland wins coming by just one run. Toronto finished fourth in the bigs with 223 homers and feature eight players with double-digit dingers and it has carried that into the postseason as the Blue Jays have hit 10 home runs through four games. The pitching matchup may not look that even based on the names, but in reality it is and Toronto is catching a good number based on this. Marco Estrada had a decent career in Milwaukee but since coming to Toronto, he has been great. He has posted a 3.30 ERA in two seasons consisting of 57 starts and this season on the road he was extremely solid with a 3.19 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 15 starts with Toronto winning nine of those last 12. Corey Kluber counters for the Indians and his numbers this season were only slightly better but more wins were registered because of greater run support. He has dominated in recent years when favored by a large number but the Indians have not exactly done him many favors as lower favorites as they are just 10-18 when the money line is between -100 to -150 over the last two seasons. 10* (901) Toronto Blue Jays |
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10-13-16 | Broncos -3 v. Chargers | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
Denver is coming off its first loss of the season against Atlanta last week as the offense could get nothing going. The Broncos rushed for just 84 yards on 24 carries (3.5 ypc) while Paxton Lynch was pretty unsuccessful in his first start, throwing for 223 yards but was sacked six times. A lot of that had to do with the banged up offensive line but the good news is that right tackle Donald Stephenson, who missed the game with a calf injury, is slated to return here. Starting quarterback Trevor Siemian is also expected to return which is definitely a big deal as well. The Chargers have to be the unluckiest team in the NFL as they are off to a 1-4 start but have lost those four games by a combined 14 points with the biggest loss coming by six points in overtime in their season opener at Kansas City. While unlucky on the scoreboard, San Diego has also been unlucky with the injuries as their injury report this week is 17 players deep including 10 players on IR. The big news here is that Denver head coach Gary Kubiak is out for this game after spending some time in the hospital. Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis is serving as the interim head coach and while that may seem like a disadvantage, it really is not one. Defensive coordinator stated that the Broncos plan to rally around Kubiak and win this game for him. San Diego is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams completing 61 percent or more of their passes (Siemian is at 67.3 percent) while going 0-6 ATS in its last six divisional home games. Conversely, Denver is 6-0 ATS in its last six divisional road games. Additionally, Denver has won 15 consecutive divisional road games, the longest streak in NFL history. 10* (103) Denver Broncos |
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10-13-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals -145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 32 h 18 m | Show |
The only Divisional Series to go the distance continues on Thursday as the Dodgers head back east to take on the Nationals. The strategy to put Clayton Kershaw on the hill on short rest almost did not pay off for Los Angeles as he clearly did not have his best stuff as he allowed five earned runs in 6.2 innings although three of those were inherited runs charged to him by the bullpen. Luckily, the Dodgers were able to get it done late thanks to a Chase Utley RBI single in the eighth inning to extend the series to a Game Five. We played against Rich Hill in Game Two on Sunday and will do so again here. He has been solid all season, both with Oakland and Los Angeles, however, he has gone four straight starts without a quality outing and has a 5.03 ERA over that stretch with the Dodgers losing all four of those games. Los Angeles is giving him just 2.7 rpg of support while the Nationals are hitting .311 against lefties over their last five games. Washington counters with Max Scherzer who is exactly who it wants in this spot. He did not have his best stuff in the series opener as he allowed four runs in six innings and it was the long ball that did him in as he allowed two home runs and that has been his problem all season long. Perhaps the favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award, Scherzer led the National League with 20 wins, 228.1 innings, 284 strikeouts and a 0.97 WHIP while his 2.96 ERA ranked eighth. This is the reason why the Nationals saved for Game Five and it will pay off. 10* (962) Washington Nationals |
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10-12-16 | Appalachian State -10 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 24-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Appalachian St. enters this game off a pair of victories including a win over Georgia St. to open October and start the Sun Belt Conference season at 1-0. The Mountaineers have dominated this conference since they joined it as they are 14-3 since 2014 and since a 1-5 start in that 2014 season, they are 20-4 overall with three of those losses coming against Clemson, Tennessee and Miami Florida meaning they are 20-1 in their last 21 games against non-power conferences. UL-Lafayette is coming off a pair of overtime losses, both on the road but both of those were against two very poor teams in Tulane and New Mexico St. The Cajuns struggled at home to defeat McNeese St. and South Alabama and the only quality team they have faced came against Boise St. and they were blasted by 35 points. If you take a look at their rushing defense, it shows they have been very solid but again, those numbers are skewed because of the competition they have faced. Appalachian St. is averaging 213 ypg on 4.5 ypc and has won the yardage battle in four of five games, the only exception being the game against the Hurricanes. This is a big number to be laying on the road but the Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS the last two seasons as a road chalk, winning all six games outright by an average of 28.2 ppg. Additionally, we play against conference home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 43-14 ATS (75.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (101) Appalachian St. Mountaineers |
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10-11-16 | Cubs -127 v. Giants | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
The Giants staved off elimination last night with a thrilling 13-inning victory over the Cubs to keep their postseason going. They took a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning as they were able to get to Aroldis Chapman who blew a rare save and instead of folding after a Kris Bryant two-run home run in the top of the ninth inning, San Francisco did its part to win it in the 13th inning. The bullpen had to go eight innings and has now tossed 14 innings over the last two games so the key for the Cubs tonight is to get to Matt Moore early which should not be a problem. Moore was pretty average this season after coming over from Tampa Bay with a 4.08 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 12 starts. While his numbers at home are much better, only two of his six home starts were quality outings and that does not help having a taxed bullpen. On the other side, John Lackey goes for the Cubs and the one reason he came to Chicago was to win a ring so you can be sure he will go all out here. He has made 23 postseason appearances including 20 starts and has a 3.11 ERA in those games so he not only has the playoff experience, he has positive playoff experience. He closed the season well with seven quality performances over his last 10 starts and while his numbers were not as great on the road, in 13 road starts, eight of those were quality outings. The Cubs are 18-7 in their last 26 games following a loss while the Giants are 5-11 in their last 16 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (953) Chicago Cubs |
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10-11-16 | LA Sparks v. Minnesota Lynx -5.5 | Top | 60-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
We won with Los Angeles in Game One of this series as the Sparks won outright as a 6.5-point underdog. The Lynx did not play their typical game as they committed 15 turnovers while not making a single three-pointer. They are not the best three-point shooting team in the league by far but not making a single long ball can be an issue. Game Two is now a must win for Minnesota and during the NBA season we often talk about the bounce theory and how linesmakers have caught up to this betting angle by shifting line the opposite way but that is not the case here as we are seeing a smaller than anticipated number here. Three of the four meetings in this series have been decided by three points or less and the road team has won all four games so we are going against the season results here but based on the situation and what is at hand, the Lynx are the only play. In each of their five WNBA Finals appearances, the Lynx have had the best record and been the host for the first two games. However, they have lost the opener now three times. Minnesota bounced back in Game Two the first two times and we should see that again here tonight. The Lynx are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss and those four wins were by an average of 19.8 ppg. Meanwhile, the Sparks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. 10* (608) Minnesota Lynx |
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10-10-16 | Nationals +132 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 132 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
There is a short turnaround in what would normally be a travel day for Washington and Los Angeles but there is no advantage either way as both teams are forced to play following the Saturday rainout. The Nationals evened up the series with a 5-2 win yesterday and are catching a solid underdog number here. They are nine games over .500 on the road which is significantly better than what the Dodgers have done on the highway. That is pretty big considering Los Angeles possessed the second best home record in the National League. The Nationals go with Gio Gonzalez who had one of his worst seasons ever but is actually in a good spot here today. He is pitching on 12 days of rest and he could not ask for a better team to face at this point than the Dodgers. One of his better starts this season was when he allowed one run on three hits in six innings in an 8-1 win over the Dodgers and in his career, he has a 3-1 record with a 1.69 ERA in five starts. The current Dodgers are batting just .160 against him with just one home run by Carlos Ruiz, who he often faced with the Phillies in 144 at-bats. The Dodgers finished with an MLB-worst .213 average against left-handed pitching. The Dodgers send Kenta Maeda to the hill and he is having a solid season but he did slow up down the stretch. He posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the All Star Break but put up a 4.25 ERA in his 14 starts after the break. The Nationals are 9-4 in their last 13 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 10* (901) Washington Nationals |
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10-10-16 | Edmonton -3 v. Montreal | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
This could very well be letdown time for Montreal as it snapped a four-game losing streak last week against rival Toronto as it played with a newfound energy in the first game for new head coach Jacques Chapdelaine. It will be touch to keep that going against a much better opponent and home field has not helped much as the Alouettes are just 2-5 at home. Edmonton has proven they can get it done through the air and on the ground, giving the Alouette defense a tough task on Monday afternoon. The CFL passing leader Mike Reilly and two top receiving yardage producers in Adarius Bowman and Derel Walker. The defense is playing better as well so overall the Eskimos are in good shape to make the playoffs. This is the first of three straight road games which makes it a vital one. The Eskimos have won two straight games and could be peaking at the right time in trying to defend the Grey Cup Championship. Montreal is in last place in the East Division and that is nothing to be proud of this season as it is the weaker of the two by far. The West has won 10 straight games against East Division opponents and is 15-8-1 overall this season. The Alouettes are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win while the Eskimos are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 16. The Eskimos have covered five straight in this series while Montreal is 0-5 ATS this season as a home underdog. 10* (481) Edmonton Eskimos |
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10-09-16 | Giants +7 v. Packers | Top | 16-23 | Push | 0 | 55 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK GIANTS for our NFL Primetime Play. After opening the season with two straight wins, the Giants have dropped their last two games. They lost a winnable game against the Redskins and then lost to a very good Minnesota team last week. New York is outgaining opponents by 36 ypg so it is playing above average despite its average record. The Giants have failed to cover the last three games which is giving us value in this number plus it is inflated because of the team they are playing. Green Bay is a very public team but is has turned into a very average team. The Packers two covers are by just a point and a half combined and they have been outgained in all three games and by an average of 56.3 ypg, fifth worst in the NFL. The short week should not affect the Giants as they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Packers have failed to cover their last three games when favored by a touchdown or more and they lost two of those outright. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points n a game involving two teams with a point differential between +3 and -3, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 62-26 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (473) New York Giants |
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10-09-16 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS for our NFL Enforcer. While the start of the Raiders is great at 3-1, this is a fraudulent 3-1 team. They have been outgained in all four games and by an average of 67.5 ypg which is the third worst average in the entire league. Oakland is coming off a pair of east coast wins and that is tough for a team to regroup from because of all the travel. San Diego is off to just the exact opposite start as it is 1-3 but their three losses have been games they could have one. They lost to the Chiefs in overtime after blowing a big lead, they lost to the Colts on a 63-yard touchdown pass with 1:17 remaining and they lost to the Saints last week on a touchdown with 1:57 left. San Diego is getting outgained by just 10.7 ypg and are in good shape to bounce back in what is considered a must win game. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 108-63 ATS (63.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Oakland is 2-12 in its last 14 home games against teams allowing 27 or more ppg while going 3-15 in its last 18 home games after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (469) San Diego Chargers |
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10-09-16 | LA Sparks +6 v. Minnesota Lynx | Top | 78-76 | Win | 102 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
Minnesota and Los Angeles went a combined 33-5 at home this season and three of those losses came in this series as the road team swept all three games. This is the matchup the WNBA was hoping for and while winning here in Minnesota will be tough once again for the Sparks, they are getting a big number to work with as this line opened at 4.5 and is up to 6 in most spots. Los Angeles has been an underdog only twice this season, once against the Lynx and once against the Liberty, and won both of those games outright. There is very little separation between the teams in offensive and defensive stats just as there is little separation between these two teams overall. This is not a matchup of one dominant team taking on an overwhelmed opponent. This is a matchup of the two most dominant teams this league has seen in years. The Lynx had the best offensive and defensive net rating in the league. The Sparks had the second best. And while the Sparks lost some efficiency points after the Olympic break, they still hold the number one league rankings in field goal percentage, three-point percentage, effective field goal percentage, and true shooting percentage. Game One should come down to the wire. 10* (605) Los Angeles Sparks |
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10-09-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals +109 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 109 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
We lost with Washington on Friday in a game that could have gone either way as both Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw were far from on their games. While we did not think that the home run would hurt Scherzer in this spot, it in fact did him in. We will back the Nationals as they are a home underdog once again which signals very good value after the Saturday rainout. Tanner Roark is not getting a lot of credit here simply because he is not a big name. He put up big numbers however as he posted a 2.83 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 33 starts and his best stuff came before the sun went down as he is 8-2 with a 1.61 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 daytime starts. The Nationals are 9-3 in his last 12 home starts. Rich Hill counters for the Dodgers and he has been solid all season, both with Oakland and Los Angeles. However, he has gone three straight starts without a quality outing and has a 4.11 ERA over that stretch with the Dodgers losing all three of those games. Los Angeles is giving him just 2.8 rpg of support while the Nationals are hitting .280 against lefties over their last five games. Here, we play against National League road teams that are hitting .250 or less going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.10 or better and a WHIP of 1.25 or better and an ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. This situation is 41-18 (69.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Washington Nationals |
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10-09-16 | Eagles -3 v. Lions | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -118 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Game of the Week. There are a lot of stats out there that Philadelphia is in a bad spot because it won as a home underdog in its last game but what is not being taken into account is the fact that the Eagles are coming off their bye week which changes everything. Teams coming off a bye week can throw that last game out the window as any letdown factor is gone and history shows the Eagles are in a near perfect spot as undefeated favorites coming off their bye week are 26-5 ATS since 2000 including a 17-1 ATS record when their opponents is coming off a loss. The Lions are coming off a bad loss to the Bears and while it was just a three-point loss, they were outgained by 145 total yards. They have also been outrushed in their last three games and that is not a good stat against the Eagles which have won the yardage battle in all three of their games. Additionally, we play against home teams that are coming off two consecutive road losses, with a losing record. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (461) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-09-16 | Patriots v. Browns +10.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The Browns let us down last week as late turnovers, including a very controversial fumble, did them in. They return home for just their second home game of the season and despite being 0-4, they have been outgained by just 27 yards combined all season. The Patriots are one of the biggest public bets this week as they are welcoming back Tom Brady while coming off a shutout loss at home so the consensus feels they will bounce back big. The problem is they are extremely overvalued here as this line is way too high and given the fact Brady was unable to practice during his entire suspension, who knows how he is going to play. Cleveland falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 125-67 ATS (65.1 percent) since 1983. On top of that, New England is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games over the last 3 seasons. 10* (456) Cleveland Browns |
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10-08-16 | Washington v. Oregon +9 | Top | 70-21 | Loss | -104 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our Saturday Enforcer. We won with Washington last Friday night which sets us up for a great spot to go against the Huskies this week. They have been the talk of college football this week as they went from No. 10 to No. 5 in the latest AP Poll and are being considered as a serious threat to make the College Football Playoff. Coming off that huge win which everyone saw on national television, Washington is now a big road favorite in one of the most hostile environments in college football. Oregon has no doubt taken a step back following three straight losses. One of those losses took place in Eugene as the Ducks fell to a very improved Colorado team by just three points as a two-touchdown favorite. Now we are seeing a line shift of 23 points and there is no way it should be that big of a move. It is desperation time for Oregon and facing an opponent like that is never easy. Washington struggled in its only other road game this season as it needed overtime to defeat Arizona, a team that plays just as fast as the Ducks. Here, we play on home underdogs with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after two or more consecutive straight up losses, playing a winning team. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Washington is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games off a home win by 28 points or more while Oregon is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 475 or more total ypg in its last three games. 10* (386) Oregon Ducks |
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10-08-16 | Alabama v. Arkansas +14 | Top | 49-30 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS for our Saturday Star Attraction. Alabama has not missed a beat since winning its National Championship a year ago as it is off to a perfect 5-0 start. While the Tide have pretty much dominated, one look at the schedule will tell part of the reason why. They have faced a USC team that is way down this year and the only real true test was a game at Mississippi where they won by five points and were actually outgained by 35 total yards. While Arkansas has not defeated Alabama since 2006, it has played them tough the last two years, trailing by three points heading into the fourth quarter last year and losing by just one points two years ago in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks are 4-1 with the lone loss coming on the road at Texas A&M and matchup well with the Tide once again. Arkansas is a very physical team and one that can go toe-to-toe with Alabama. Their balance on offense is also a big asset as Razorbacks quarterback Austin Allen has already thrown for 1,232 yards and 12 touchdowns with just two interceptions while running back Rawleigh Williams III is second in the conference in rushing yards with 559. Since 1997, Arkansas has been a double-digit underdog at home only eight times and the Razorbacks are 6–2 ATS in those eight games. Here, we play against road favorites after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in four straight games going up against an opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (402) Arkansas Razorbacks |
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10-08-16 | Ball State v. Central Michigan -12 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our MAC Game of the Year. Central Michigan is coming off a pair of losses including losing big to Western Michigan last week in its MAC opener. That put s a huge amount of emphasis on this game to get into the conference win column especially with games at Northern Illinois and at Toledo on deck. The Chippewas came into the season as contenders in the MAC West and still are but now have a sense of urgency going forward. Ball St. meanwhile was picked last in the MAC West and are 0-1 in the conference after losing to then winless Northern Illinois last week. The Cardinals only lost by four points but they were outgained by 226 yards as the defense surrendered 653 yards to the Huskies. They face a big challenge this week with Central Michigan quarterback Cooper Rush who is the active FBS leader in passing with 10,891 career yards. Indiana's Richard Lagow, Florida Atlantic's Jason Driskel and Northern Illinois's Anthony Maddie all had big days against the Cardinals, but none of those three guys had much experience coming in. Additionally, the Chippewas have four receivers with at least 13 catches and 200 yards this season. Going back, the Chippewas are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss while Ball St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after being outgained by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (372) Central Michigan Chippewas |
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10-08-16 | Kent State v. Buffalo +2 | Top | 44-20 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 13 m | Show |
Buffalo ran into a wall last week as the offense was completely shut down at Boston College which possesses the top ranked defense in college football. Things will be better this week however as they take a big step down in competition. The Bulls were coming a very big and emotional overtime over Army the previous week so they likely got caught in a letdown against the Eagles. Many will look at the season opening loss against Albany at home but it was a game they should have won as they won the yardage battle by 165 total yards but committed four costly turnovers. Kent St. is off to a 1-4 start and has already played two teams from the FCS, beating Monmouth but losing to North Carolina A&T. A 48-0 loss at Alabama can be thrown out but even besides that, the Golden Flashes have not looked very good. Overall, they are ranked No. 112 in scoring offense and No. 96 in scoring defense and again, those are with two FCS teams in the mix. Kent St. is coming off a tough loss against Akron as it had the game won by scoring a go ahead touchdown with a minute left but allowed the Zips to go 57 yards on five plays for the game winning score and those losses are tough to get over. Buffalo has a great situation on its side as we play on home teams that are averaging between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams averaging between 3 to 3.5 ypc, after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (320) Buffalo Bulls |
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10-08-16 | Air Force v. Wyoming +11 | Top | 26-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 11 m | Show |
With its win over Colorado St. last weekend, Wyoming has already surpassed its win total from all of last season and has a chance to match its win total from two years ago. The Cowboys are a very experienced team and are playing some of their best football in a very long time. That win over the Rams came after a tough road load at Eastern Michigan the previous Friday where they allowed the game winning touchdown with just 1:35 remaining. Despite a return home, they are getting double-digits which seems a little bit aggressive in this spot. Air Force is off to a 4-0 start and while it has dominated at home, it did struggle in its lone road game. The Falcons defeated Utah St. by a touchdown but were outgained by 88 yards in the process. They are coming off a big win over rival Navy and next week they play New Mexico in Dallas and they will be out for revenge there as they lost to the Lobos which set the tone for a loss in the MWC Championship and a loss in their bowl game. Air Force has won 15 straight games at home but is just 7-18 in its last 25 roadies. Here, we play against road favorites after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in four straight games going up against an opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) since 1992. The underdog has covered seven of the last eight meetings in this series and we can expect that to continue. 10* 374) Wyoming Cowboys |
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10-08-16 | Houston v. Navy +17 | Top | 40-46 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
Houston is ranked No. 6 in the nation and is making a strong case to become a team from a non-power conference to make the College Football Playoff. The Cougars have what it takes on both sides of the ball to get there and the recent speculations have turned them into a very public team and thus, overinflated lines. They were favored by eight points against Cincinnati in their first road game of the season and this line is telling us that the Bearcats are nine points better than Navy and that is far from the case as the Midshipmen are actually 22 spots ahead of Cincinnati in the power rankings. Navy is coming off a loss against a very underrated Air Force team but come in with a 2-0 record in the AAC. Granted, those wins were against teams non-comparable to Houston but this is still a very solid football team. Navy has not been a home underdog of more than two touchdowns since 2003 so it is getting very little credit in this spot based on all of the Houston hype and the Tom Herman rumors. The Midshipmen have a unique offense that is particularly tough for opponents to prepare for because it requires the opposing defense to learn new defensive sets with little time to prepare. Houston is coming off a 42-14 shellacking of Connecticut, avenging its lone loss of last season so that revenge win could cause a letdown. Navy has won 12 straight home games and it is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games against teams who give up 17 or less ppg. 10* (356) Navy Midshipmen |
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10-08-16 | Georgia Tech +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 47 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our Saturday Afternoon Dominator. We lost a tough one with Georgia Tech last week as Miami won by two touchdowns despite getting outgained by the Yellow Jackets 361-355. Georgia Tech committed three turnovers including a pair of fumbles on consecutive drives inside its own 20-yard line that were returned for touchdowns which was the difference. After racking up an average of 30 ppg, Georgia Tech has scored just 28 points combined the last two games but those came against the No. 7 and No. 12 ranked defenses in the nation. Pittsburgh has a defense that is ranked No. 72 overall while coming in No. 91 in points allowed. The Panthers have allowed an average of 37 ppg in their four games against FBS opposition and while they won last week by 16 points, it took a late touchdown followed by a pick-six to end the game to make the margin what it was. Georgia Tech falls into a solid situation where we play on road teams coming off a home loss by 14 or more points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 on the season. This situation is 71-33 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Georgia Tech is 15-4 ATS in 19 games under head coach Paul Johnson after a game where it forced no turnovers. 10* (325) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
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10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College +17 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 6 m | Show |
Clemson pulled out a big win for us last Saturday night but we will go against the Tigers Friday in a big letdown spot. The win over Louisville moved them from No. 5 to No. 3 in the latest AP Poll and put them back in the drivers seat in the ACC Atlantic. Clemson was outgained by 61 yards against the Cardinals however and while it is not that big of a deal, it does question them going forward in this situation. Clemson is definitely looking a lot better than it was after the first two games of the season but now it is laying a touchdown more here than it was laying in its last road game at Georgia Tech and Boston College is arguably better than the Yellow Jackets. The Eagles are riding a two-game winning streak and while victories over Wagner and buffalo are not overly impressive, what is impressive is how dominant they were in those wins. Now at 3-2, Boston College has already matched its win total from last season and it could easily be 4-1 right now had Georgia Tech not convert a fourth and 19 in its game winning touchdown drive. This Eagles defense is for real and going back to last season, they have allowed 20 or fewer points in 13 of 17 games and right now they are ranked No. 1 in the country in total defense and No. 16 in scoring defense. Boston College falls into a great situation where we play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points after two or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 35-9 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous games while under fourth-year head coach Steve Addazio, Boston College is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of .750 or better. 10* (312) Boston College Eagles |
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10-07-16 | Dodgers v. Nationals +136 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This has the makings of a great series and while going against Clayton Kershaw is never easy, getting Max Scherzer at this price at home is a must take. The Nationals finished the regular season 50-31 at home including a 12-5 record in September while the Dodgers were five games under .500 on the road. The Dodgers won five of the six meetings this season but Scherzer was not on the mound for any of those while Kershaw only went once and that was at home. Kershaw has made a strong comeback after missing over two months with a back injury but the postseason has been his enigma as he is 2-6 with a 4.59 ERA in 13 games. He is definitely one of the best pitchers in the game but the mental part of the postseason can come into play again. Scherzer had another outstanding season as he led the National League in innings pitched, strikeouts and wins on his way to another Cy Young Award-caliber season. His problem was allowing too many home runs but the Dodgers are not a big threat with just 199 home runs this season. Here, we play on National League home teams that are hitting between .255 to .269 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season. This situation is 155-83 (65.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (952) Washington Nationals |
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10-07-16 | Red Sox v. Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 114 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
We won with the over in this game last night but it was not easy with the final run coming in at the top of the eighth inning. Game Two takes place this afternoon with what should have been the Game One starters and we can expect a lot less hits than the 20 that were banged out last night. David Price gets the ball for Boston and he had a pretty average season by his standards, posting a 3.99 ERA over 35 starts. He has always struggled against the Yankees and that was the case again this season as he posted a 7.89 ERA in five starts against them. Takes those out and his ERA drops to 3.41 in his 30 other starts and he closed the season by allowing three runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts, the only two exceptions coming against New York. While the over has come in the majority of those games, a look at the opposing starting pitcher will explain why. Corey Kluber was given an additional day of rest and should be extremely fresh after having 11 days off with tossing just 60 pitches in his last start. He had a quad issue but after two bullpen sessions, he has been deemed healthy. Overall he had another great season and like Price, he is a strikeout machine as he finished No. 5 in the American League, one behind Price. Look for a solid pitching duel in this critical Game Two. 10* Under (955) Boston Red Sox/(956) Cleveland Indians |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals v. 49ers UNDER 43 | Top | 33-21 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
We were waiting on a status update of Carson Palmer before making a call on this game and as expected, he is more than likely now not going to play. That means Drew Stanton will be making his first start since 2014 and after a rough go of it last week in relief, we can expect to see a heavy dose of the running game from the Cardinals. They will not be taking many chances downfield unless they have to come from behind again which is unlikely in this matchup. The 49ers offense has been pretty offensive as they are ranked No. 29 in total offense and their scoring output has declines in each of their four games. Despite the three losses, the Cardinals defense has been potent as they are ranked No. 7 overall and it has been turnovers on the offensive end that have hurt them the most. Safety Tyrann Mathieu has played slot corner on just 11 percent of his snaps this season compared to 62 percent last season. He will be playing closer to the box where he can have more of a direct impact on plays. San Francisco cannot get the ball downfield so they will turn to Carlos Hyde who has been running the ball very well. San Francisco falls into a totals situation where we play the under after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents. This situation is 85-49 (63.4 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Arizona also falls into a totals situation where we play the under where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points versus division opponents, off a division game. This situation is 78-39 (66.7 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, San Francisco is 8-0 under its last eight home conference games and 7-0 under its last seven games at home against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. Meanwhile the under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last six games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (303) Arizona Cardinals/(304) San Francisco 49ers |
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10-06-16 | Red Sox v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The ALDS between Boston and Cleveland does not start off with the pitching matchup as expected and we could see some fireworks for Game One. The two highest scoring teams in the American League square off and the home road splits are not affected at all as Boston was the highest scoring road team in the American League while Cleveland was the second highest scoring team at home in the junior circuit. The Red Sox have the highest-scoring offense in the Majors, while averaging 5.2 rpg in their season series against Cleveland and they send Rick Porcello to the hill who took the ace tag away from David Price this season. He has been solid all season with a 3.15 ERA over 33 starts and has been the beneficiary of great run support of 6.6 rpg including 6.1 rpg in 17 road starts. Porcello will make his third career start and ninth career appearance in the postseason where he is 0-2 with a 4.41 ERA in 16.1innings. Trevor Bauer makes the Game One start over Corey Kluber who is getting an extra day of rest because of a quad strain. Bauer posted a 3.30 ERA prior to the All Star Break, but has struggled in his last five starts with a 7.28 ERA. In his lone start against Boston this season, Bauer surrendered four runs on eight hits over five innings and going back, the over is 6-1 in his last seven home starts against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1-1 in the Indians last seven games against right-handed starters while the over is 10-4 in Porcellos last 14 road starts. 10* Over (935) Boston Red Sox/(936) Cleveland Indians |
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10-06-16 | Western Kentucky -3 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 52-55 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 33 m | Show |
After rolling past Rice in their opener, the Hilltoppers have gone 0-4 ATS so we are getting value with them here. They are coming off a win over Houston Baptist which really in not saying much but it was an important victory in that Western Kentucky needed a bounce back victory after losing to Vanderbilt by a point in overtime prior to that. The Hilltoppers are 1-0 in the conference with that victory over Rice and going back to 2014, they are riding a 13-game Conference-USA winning streak. Louisiana Tech defeated UTEP in its last game to pick up its first conference win of the season after dropping its C-USA season opener at Middle Tennessee. It was a misleading final score however as the Miners lost by 21 points but had the total yardage advantage 415-387. UTEP had two turnovers and while those did not do any scoring damage, six of their nine drives went into Bulldogs territory, including four inside the 22-yard line but they could come up with just score. Some of that can be pinned on the Bulldogs defense but UTEP has had scoring issues all season long as it is ranked No. 125 in the nation in scoring average. The offense has been solid but the Western Kentucky has been good as well, allowing no more than 24 points in regulation besides the Alabama game. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after gaining 6.5 or more rushing ypc last game. This situation is 42-12 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. The Bulldogs are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points while the Hilltoppers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (307) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State OVER 55 | Top | 26-27 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
Two of the Sun Belt Conference favorites square off on Wednesday in what looks to be a very high scoring game. Georgia Southern is off to a 2-0 start in the conference with wins over South Alabama and UL-Monroe and both of those were very low scoring contests that stayed under the total by 24.5 points and 13 points respectively. Those came against two of the lowest scoring offenses in the country and while Arkansas St. has struggled on offense, it has gotten progressively better. The Red Wolves are 0-4 including an embarrassing loss last time out against Central Arkansas. This is their conference opener and while the offense has the ability to put up a good number of points, their defense has been real troublesome as they are allowing 36 ppg, which is ranked No. 107 in the country. Arkansas St. has struggled against the run especially and that is not a good sign against a powerful Eagles rushing attack. This is the lowest total Georgia Southern has seen this season and both teams have seen three of their four games stay under the number which sets up good value. We play the over where the total is between 49.5 and 56 involving teams that winless on the season and coming off a home loss. This situation is 46-17 (73 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Arkansas St. is 8-0 to the over in its last eight games against teams average 4.75 or more ypc while under head coach Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves are 14-1 to the over against conference opponents. 10* Over (301) Georgia Southern Eagles/(302) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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10-05-16 | Giants v. Mets +100 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
We saw how home field played a part last night in the A.L. Wild Card game and we have a similar situation tonight. The Mets finished with the same regular-season record as the Giants at 87-75 but earned the home field advantage for this game by virtue of a 4-3 record in the seven games the clubs played against each other. The Mets came on huge down the stretch to earn a second straight trip to the postseason after they were decimated with injuries and rest has played a big part as going back, the Mets are 21-6 in their last 27 games following an off day. The Giants closed the regular season with four straight wins to finish one game ahead of St. Louis, which also finished with four straight wins. Overall though, it was not a good second half for the Giants as they went 30-42 after the All Star Break including a 14-23 record on the road. Additionally, the Giants are 14-37 in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning record. Noah Syndergaard gets the ball for the Mets and he is the best option in this one-and-done game as he went 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and 218 strikeouts in 183.2 innings. He posted a 3.32 ERA in the postseason last year coming from three starts and one relief appearance. Syndergaard has the highest average four-seam fastball velocity, sinker velocity and slider velocity of any starting pitcher in baseball this season. The Giants turn to their ace with Madison Bumgarner and he has been nothing short of spectacular but he did leak some oil down the stretch and was average on the road. The Giants are 1-4 in his last five road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (934) New York Mets |
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10-04-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -145 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Toronto earned the right to host this Wild Card game by taking 10 of the 19 meetings this year in the season series including six of 10 at home. Give the Blue Jays credit for getting the job done over the weekend by beating Boston both Saturday and Sunday when the Red Sox were not even resting players despite having already clinched the division. Toronto finished only three games better at home than on the road but those splits are more important the other way as Baltimore went 50-31 at home but just 39-42 on the road. The Orioles did do well when Chris Tillman pitched on the road but after a great start to the season, he slipped toward the end, posting a 6.00 ERA over his last five starts and a 5.44 ERA over his last nine outings. Only three of those last nine were quality performances. It was a tale of two halves for Marcus Stroman and luckily, the good one was the latter one. After posting a 5.33 ERA in 16 starts in April, May and June, he put up a 3.41 ERA in 16 starts in July, August and September. He pitched nearly the same amount of innings in those splits but allowed 21 fewer earned runs (60 to 39) while his strikeouts went from 71 to 95. He did not have the best showing against Baltimore this season however three of the four starts against the Orioles came in that first three-month stretch. The Blue Jays have won five of his last seven home starts. 10* (932) Toronto Blue Jays |
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10-04-16 | LA Sparks -7 v. Chicago Sky | Top | 95-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Minnesota and Los Angeles were on a collision course to face each other in the WNBA Finals and while the Lynx easily took care of Phoenix, the Sparks are not there yet. They took a 2-0 series lead with easy wins at home but played one of their worst halves of the season in the second half on Sunday. They scored only 27 second half points and while the Chicago defense can be given some of the credit, we can chalk it up as an aberration. The Sky struggled all season long on defense, finishing the year with the second-worst defensive rating at 106.1. Those problems were obvious in the first two games of this series against the Sparks, as they allowed Los Angeles to shoot a combined 53.3 percent. That went down to just 36.6 percent in Game Three but we can expect the Sparks to bounce back here and win the series going away. Chicago center Imani Boyette had one of her best games of the season with 13 points and 11 boards against one of the best interiors in the league and Los Angeles will not be allowing that again. The Sky defense has been too inconsistent all season to hold down the Sparks for a second straight game. Chicago is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games in the second half of the season against teams shooting 36 percent or better from long range. 10* (601) Los Angeles Sparks |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Everyone will be taking a look at the Minnesota record and figure it should be a bigger favorite here following impressive wins over Green Bay and Carolina. Those are a pair of flawed teams however so those wins cannot be taken overly serious while the other win against Tennessee meant little as well. The Vikings have actually been outgained by their three opponents by a combined 81 total yards. The Giants suffered their first loss of the season against Washington as they blew leads of 14-3 and 21-9 no thanks to two big plays from the Washington offense. The Giants did win the yardage battle and on the season they have outgained their opponents by an average 57 ypg. On paper and due to the meeting last year between the two teams, many feel this should be an easy win for the Vikings. However, the Giants defense is a much improved unit when compared to the group they fielded in the 49-17 Week 16 loss to the Vikings last year. Additionally, the offense has more weapons as well with a now healthy Victor Cruz and rookie sensation Sterling Shepard. While running backs Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen are out, Orleans Darkwa carried the ball 10 times for 53 yards and one touchdown last week against Washington. Two great situations fall on the Giants side as well. First, we play against home teams that are averaging 70 or fewer rushing ypg, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games where they forced three or more turnovers. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (277) New York Giants |
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10-02-16 | Rams v. Cardinals -7.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Cardinals are a disappointing 1-2 on the season following a blowout loss in Buffalo last Sunday. The Cardinals lost the turnover battle 5-1 so the fact they outgained the Bills by 51 yards meant nothing. This is a big game for Arizona as a loss would drop it two games behind the Rams and potentially Seattle should the Seahawks defeat the Jets earlier in the day. We feel we are getting good value with this number because it has been adjusted due to the fact that Arizona has covered just two of its last seven home games. Los Angeles is off to a 2-1 start but it is a fraudulent record to say the least. The Rams have been outgained in all three of their games and it has been substantial as they have been outgained by an average of 103.3 ypg. That makes the record very misleading and gives Arizona a huge opportunity to bounce back. Not counting Week 17 last season as that game meant nothing, the Cardinals lost only one other home game and that came against the Rams so there is definitely revenge coming into play. Here, we play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 61-30 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. Additionally, under head Bruce Arians, the Cardinals are 13-5 ATS versus teams allowing 350 or more ypg. 10* (274) Arizona Cardinals |
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10-02-16 | Cowboys v. 49ers +2 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Hold your nose for this one. San Francisco is back home following a pair of road losses to Carolina and Seattle, two of the NFC heavyweights, both of which came by 19 points. The 49ers won their lone home game against the Rams, a game in which they dominated by not allowing a single point while outgaining Los Angeles by 135 total yards. San Francisco is No. 14 in the NFL in points scored while ranking No. 20 in total defense and those rankings are far from horrible. Dallas has looked pretty good so far this season with a 2-1 record and it could easily be 3-0 as the one loss came by just a single point to the Giants but the numbers that back up that record have not been as good. Overall, the Cowboys have outgained their opponents by just 17 yards total with the host holding the advantage in all three games. Dak Prescott has done a solid job at quarterback but Dallas should not be favored on the road in this spot as it is based on perception of Dallas being now a strong team and San Francisco being horrible once again. That really is not the case however. San Francisco has a contrarian rushing situation in its favor as we play against road favorites that are allowing 90 or fewer rushing ypg, after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards last game. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (270) San Francisco 49ers |
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10-02-16 | Browns +7.5 v. Redskins | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -102 | 45 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Game of the Week. Washington picked up its first win of the season last week against the Giants but did not play particularly well. The Redskins were outgained by 54 yards as the defense struggled yet again and they are now allowing 424.7 ypg and 30.7 ppg, both ranked No. 29 in the league. The offense moved the ball okay but were unable to sustain drives as they were 0-4 in the redzone and had to settle for five field goals. Cleveland lost another heartbreaker last week as it fell in overtime against the Dolphins. This came after blowing a 20-0 lead against Baltimore and while the Browns are 0-3, they have played better than that. Cody Kessler played pretty decent in his first start at quarterback and gets a much easier test this week with the Washington defense. On the other side, cornerback Joe Haden returns after missing last week with a groin injury and his presence will be important here. Two situations favor the Browns as well. First, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win by three points or less over a division rival, with a losing record. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after a loss by 6 or less points. This situation is 86-40 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Washington is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (253) Cleveland Browns |
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10-02-16 | Titans v. Texans OVER 40.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS/HOUSTON TEXANS OVER for our Sunday Totals Dominator. This is a contrarian totals play as we have seen Tennessee stay under the number in its last two games by a combined 37 points and in the season opener that went over, it surpassed the number by just one point. Those results give us value with this total as it is down by a touchdown from the last two games. Houston meanwhile has stayed under the number in all three of its games and none have really been close to going over. The Texans were shutout last week in New England 27-0 despite getting actually outgaining the Patriots by two yards. They were done in by a 3-0 turnover disadvantage as the offense was able to move the ball at a steady pace but failed to sustain their drives. The defense did get gashed for 185 yards rushing on 39 carries (4.7 ypc) and while the defense has played at a high level overall this season, the loss of J.J. Watt cannot be overstated. The Tennessee offense has not produced as it should be as it is averaging just 14 ppg which is dead last in the league but the titans are No. 19 in total offense so they are moving the ball and have a chance to break out here. Tennessee has a great contrarian situation on its side as we play the over involving road teams that are averaging 17 or fewer ppg, after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, the over is 7-0 in the Texans last seven games in October while the over is 7-2-1 in the Titans last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (263) Tennessee Titans/(264) Houston Texans |
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10-01-16 | Louisville v. Clemson +2 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on CLEMSON for our Saturday Star Attraction. After starting the season pretty slow with ho-hum wins over auburn and Troy, Clemson turned it into high gear against South Carolina St. and then last Thursday, it rolled over a very good Georgia Tech team on the road. While the victory was by just 19 points, the Tigers outgained the Yellow Jackets 442-124. Because of the slow start, Clemson fell from No. 2 in the polls to No. 5 but that will certainly change with a win here. Louisville has taken the college football world by storm as it came into the season ranked No. 19 in the AP Poll and has risen all the way to No. 3 with some incredible offensive performances. In four games, the Cardinals have put up no fewer than 59 points while averaging 63.5 ppg. One of the outbursts came against Florida St. and many think that was impressive, the defense of the Seminoles is garbage this season. Clemson has a defense that could prove up to the task in slowing down Louisville. Despite losing eight starters off last year's group, coordinator Brent Venables has the Tigers' defense clicking on all cylinders once again. Clemson ranks No. 3 in the country in total defense (218.5 ypg) and No. 5 in the nation in scoring defense (11.0 ppg). Clemson has won 18 consecutive regular-season games and 18 straight home games yet comes in as the home underdog after opening as the favorite. They will use that lack of respect come Saturday. 10* (164) Clemson Tigers |
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10-01-16 | Memphis v. Ole Miss -14 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 51 h 0 m | Show |
Many may not know this is a rivalry game between Memphis and Mississippi known as the Mid-South Rivalry and this edition is really big for the Rebels. They are coming off a blowout win over Georgia last week following a tough loss to Alabama the previous week but there will be no chance of a letdown here this week especially with it being homecoming and the fact they have a bye next week. Memphis upset Mississippi 37–24 last season which was the first time the Tigers defeated the Rebels since 2004, and over a ranked opponent since 1996. The Tigers were expected to lay down last week against Bowling Green but instead they won by a whopping 74 points so there was clearly no lookahead. A lot of that had to with the struggles of Bowling Green which is off to a 1-3 start and has allowed 77 points on two different occasions. The other victories came against SE Missouri St. and Kansas so there has not been a good win of any sort as proven by the fact of the Tigers schedule ranking of No., 178 in the country. Conversely, Mississippi has played the No. 8 ranked slate in the nation so it comes in much better prepared which is a big reason the line is as big as it is. Mississippi is the only school in the country to face three top-15 opponents in its first four games of the season. The Rebels are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record while the Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (116) Mississippi Rebels |
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