Today’s Experts Free Plays!
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Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Carolina Panthers -3.5
The Carolina Panthers will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday against the Detroit Lions. They were embarrassed on National TV on Thursday last week in a 21-52 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are playing as well as any team in the NFL right now. They’ll be looking to show the kind of team they really are this week as that effort was an aberration based on the way the Panthers had played up to that point previously.
The Panthers are still 6-3 on the season and right in the thick of the playoff race. They have everything to play for the rest of the way, and I also like the fact that they have extra time to prepare for the Lions this week. That’s because they did play last Thursday, giving them three more days off than the Lions. That’s a hidden advantage here that I don’t think is being factored into the line.
I went 4-1 in the NFL last week, but my lone loss was on the Lions +7 over the Bears. I thought they would play with a sense of urgency in a must-win game, but they did not, and they were terrible the entire game. They were thoroughly outplayed by the Bears. Now, at 3-6 on the season and three games behind the Bears in the NFC North, I could see the Lions pack it in. They realize they have nothing to play for the rest of the way.
I should have seen it coming with the trade of Golden Tate to the Eagles. Tate was Matthew Stafford’s security blanket, and without him he has looked lost. The Lions have lost three in a row by 14 at home to the Seahawks, by 15 at the Vikings and by 12 at the Bears. If that’s not the sign of a team struggling, then I don’t know what is.
Tate was so important to Stafford because he could get the ball out quickly to him. That helped mask the woeful offensive line in Detroit that simply hasn’t given Stafford any time to throw this season, especially in recent weeks. As a result, this Detroit offense has been held to just 15.0 points per game the last three weeks. It won’t get any easier against a very good Carolina defense this week.
The Panthers look as good as they have offensively maybe ever this season, averaging 26.8 points per game. And their defense is holding opponents to 17 yards per game below their season averages despite facing a brutal schedule of opposing offenses. This Detroit offense will be one of the worst units the Panthers have faced all season, and they should have their way with them.
Christian McCaffrey should have a huge game rushing against a Detroit defense that ranks 28th against the run, giving up 132.7 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Lions also rank 31st in passing yards per attempt (8.9) allowed this season. Even Mitchell Trubisky torched them for 348 yards last week through the air. They were without their top corner in Darius Slay in that game, and he could miss this game as well with a knee injury.
Detroit is 2-15 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team that commits one or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season. Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS off a blowout road loss by 14 points or more as the coach of Carolina. Rivera is 12-2 ATS after allowing 25 or more points in two consecutive games as the coach of the Panthers. Look for an inspired, bounce-back effort from Carolina this week. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
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Utah State is a merciless offensive juggernaut averaging 51 ppg in offensive production this season while allowing an average of 22.7 ppg. They are being asked to lay almost 4 TDS in this MWC road game vs the Colorado State Rams, but because of their lack of respect for opposing teams and their refusal to take their proverbial foot off the gas, Im betting they are a viable wager here to cover vs a side that allows an average of more than 38 ppg.
HC Wells last 6 games as a 21.5 to 31 point favorite have seen his team average 53.5 ppg while allowing just 18.2 ppg, with the point differential coming in at 35.3 ppg for a perfect 6-0 ATS record.
CFB Favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (UTAH ST) - good rushing team - averaging 200 or more rushing yards/game, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 32-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.
Play on Utah State to cover
T.M. Selection: Raiders/Cardinals under (FREE PLAY)
Two teams who came into the year with big aspirations collide on Sunday afternoon and I have a hard time seeing either mustering much of an offensive attack. Oakland is in full on rebuilding mode (just 1-8 SU overall), most recently falling in a 20-6 setback to the Chargers this past weekend. The Raiders have now scored a grand total of nine points over the last two weeks. Arizona fans can empathize. The Cards are 2-7, most recently falling 26-14 at Kansas City. Arizona has struggled with offensive consistency as well this season and it’s already seen the total go under the number in four of five at home. Consider the under in this “stinker” of a non-conference contest.
T.M. Prediction: 17-14 Arizona.
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Broncos/Chargers UNDER 47
I like this UNDER in this division rivalry between the Broncos and Chargers Sunday. The Chargers have gotten healthier on defense in recent weeks and it’s starting to show with their play on the field. They have allowed 19 points or fewer in five consecutive games and an average of just 13.2 PPG in those five contests. They should hold the Broncos in check. This is a Denver offense that has scored 23 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games overall. They just aren’t very good on that side of the ball this season. But their defense is still very strong, and they should be able to slow down Philip Rivers and this Los Angeles offense. The Broncos and Chargers have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings. With a total of 47 Sunday, this is an easy choice. Give me the UNDER.
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1* Free Pick on Oregon -170
I think this is one of those scenarios where the public things Arizona State is the play because they are the only ones with something to play for. Sun Devils win out and they are the Pac-12 South champs and headed to the Pac-12 title game against either Washington State or Washington. Oregon can't win the North and have locked up a bowl bid at 6-4.
The Ducks also come in off an ugly loss at Utah, where the Utes were missing both their starting quarterback and their 1,000 yard rusher. All this makes the Sun Devils look like the play here, but I think it has Oregon showing big time value as a small home favorite and I'll go ahead and take them to win outright on the money line at this price.
Arizona State has won 3 straight, but 2 of those were at home and the other was against a reeling USC team. The Sun Devils haven't been the same team on the road, where they are just 1-3. Oregon is too talented and with this being their final home game and it coming under the lights, I expect a big effort from the Ducks in what I believe will be an easy home win. Take Oregon!
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Oklahoma can name their score in this one as they host Kansas for Senior Day. The Sooners have scored 45 points or more in six straight games. They've got so much talent and a big game against West Virginia coming up so focus could be a bit of an issue. Kyler Murray is trying for the Heisman so they'll want him to put up some good numbers. Kansas has struggled against any opponent with a pulse. They gave up 48 to Texas Tech and 48 to Oklahoma State. The last two years the Sooners have won 41-3 and 56-3 in this game. I think the Jayhawks can add some points so give me the over here.
Arizona State +3.5
The Sun Devils are worth a flyer on Saturday. ASU has been a team that simply doesn't look ahead and that plays into the value here. Typically with a rivalry game the following week, teams will struggle.
Not here. The Sun Devils have gone 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS prior to their matchup with Arizona. They also catch Oregon at a good time and in a nice situational edge.
The Ducks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games when coming off a loss. Some other trends to note. Arizona State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games. Oregon is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home. Oregon is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games.
This is a nice spot to grab the points.
Back Arizona State. Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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Dave’s Saturday Free Play:
1* on Nebraska +2.5
The Key: It has been a tale of two seasons for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. They were expected to struggle early in Scott Frost’s first season, and they did. But they have rebounded nicely here of late by going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. They covered the spread in road losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern and Ohio State, the latter two of which they had a great chance to win outright, losing in OT to Northwestern and only by 5 at Ohio State. And they beat Minnesota 53-28 at home and Illinois 54-35 at home. Their offense has been unstoppable behind Adrian Martinez. I’m not sure how Michigan State can keep up. The Spartans have been held to 24 or fewer points in each of their last 6 games. They are coming off a huge 6-26 loss to Ohio State, and won’t be nearly as hungry to face Nebraska this week. The Spartans are scoring just 19.3 PPG in conference play. The Huskers are 8-1 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Huskers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Michigan State. Take Nebraska.
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Saturday card has the Exclusive TIER 1 College football move and the BIG 12 Game of the Year, there are also 4 more best bets including a late night total. In hoops we have a 100% NBA System play and a nice College hoops card. ACC Comp play below
The ACC comp play is on Duke plus the 28-29 points. Game 331 at 7:00 eastern. Duke has an elite QB and will hang in this game having cashed 6 of 7 on the road, 4 of 5 after scoring 40 or more and 6 of 8 after rushing for 200+ yards. Clemson fits a nasty system that plays against Conference teams that are undefeated vs an opponent that has a 666-875 win percentage and is not off back to back spread wins. Clemson win comfortably but not by 28+ points. Take Duke plus the points tonight. On Saturday we have a big College football card with an Exclusive TIER 1 Release, the BIG 12 Game if the year and 4 more best bets 3 are televised. In hoops we have a perfect NBA Court Crusher system and our early season College hoops System plays. For the Free pick. Take the 28+ points with Duke. RV- GC Sports
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Wisconsin at Purdue 3:30 ET
Boilermakers (-) over Badgers- This line and matchup tells us two things, that Purdue is vastly improved since their Big Ten opening loss to Northwestern and that Wisconsin has fallen hard. The Badgers are a 'backer's nightmare going 2-8 ATS on the season. Whereas Chip's top rated Games of the Year are 7-1 78% so don't miss Saturday's Top-Rated' winner. Oh, yeah take PURDUE!
Chip's 'Guaranteed' Fab-5 Chip Chirimbes, after seven straight winning Saturday's the Las Vegas Hilton Handicapping Champion was 1-4 with his Fab-5 NCAA Best Bet releases last week. Saturday, Chip is releasing his Top-5 NCAA Best Bet winners including his 'Highest-Rated' Big -12 Megabucks winner between West Virginia and Oklahoma State, his Pac-12 Rivalry Best Bet winner between Southern Cal and U.C.L.A., his Vegas Insider winner between Boston College and Florida State, his Power Play winner between Syracuse and Notre Dame and his Big -12 Money Game winner between Texas Tech and Kansas State. Receive Chip's 'Guaranteed' Fab-5 Best Bets for just $149. Get it ALL NOW!
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #319 Indiana Hoosiers over Michigan Wolverines (4p.m., Saturday, November 17 FS1) We will take the points in this game as it is a classic situation where Michigan will be looking ahead to Ohio State the following week. Expect them to just go through the motions similar to what they did last week against Rutgers. Indiana needs to win one of their last two games to become bowl eligible and it will not happen this week but expect a good effort for preparing them for their season finale against Purdue the following Saturday. Michigan is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a game in which they scored more than 40 points the previous week. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card featuring top plays on Saturday and Sunday. This is going to be a monster weekend so sign-up now and let 47 years of handicapping experience work for you.
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Syracuse Orange. The Notre Dame Irish have been cruising through a rather average schedule, and they are currently ranked #3 overall with their sights set on the College Football Playoffs. Standing in their way are the #13 ranked Syracuse Orange, who have lost two games by an average margin of 5.5 points. Their loss to Clemson by a score of 27-23 is more impressive than most of Notre Dame's wins. This a team that has already proved it can hang with the big boys, last year they handed Clemson it's only regular season loss. Senior quarterback Eric Dungey has been lighting it up with his arm and his legs. He's got a dozen rushing TDs and 690 rushing yards so far this season. The Orange have covered the spread in five straight non conference games, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning record. I'll take the points with Syracuse. Take CUSE. GL,
1* Free Sharp Play on New Mexico State vs BYU over 55 -105
My money is on the OVER 55 in Saturday's showdown of Independents, as BYU host New Mexico State. The Aggies are a team built for high-scoring games, as they don't play much defense and are a capable offensive team. They come into this one giving up 42.3 ppg and nearly 14 points more per game than what their opponent average. BYU only averages 23.3 ppg, but a lot of that has to do with their schedule, as their opponent on average is only giving up 25.9 ppg. We saw them score 35 last week at UMass and I could see them topping that here. All we would need from the Aggies is around 20 points and they haven't scored fewer than 20 since the first week of September. Bet the OVER 55!
DMack's Free Play for Sunday November 18, 2018 is on the Titans/Colts Over
The Titans evidently got hings figured out on their bye week, scoring 28 and 34 points in wins over the Cowboys and Patriots. They won't face anywhere near that resistance here against a Colt outfit that has won their last three games in shootouts against teams with a combined record of 7-21. Disregard prior history here look at the moment. The Colts are on a 5-1 run tho the over and Luck is playing very well throwing the play. Can't see Mariota and Co. generating anything less than 30 here with the Colts answering back. 34-30 whoever.
Jeff Allen's Free NFL Play for Sunday is on the Oakland Raiders
Both team play hard but from a talent standpoint, neither team matches up well and both are in tank mode. John Gruden needs a win, any kind of a win to get the pressure off for a couple weeks. He faces a Cardinal team that is 1-4 at home with an 18-15 win in their last against a 49er team that is also bad. Both teams have their moments and this one gets decided by a kick in the final minute. Take the points.
Play - Arizona State (Game 375).
Edges - Sun Devils: 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS before facing Arizona; and 4-1 ATS after facing UCLA … Ducks: 1-7 ATS in Last Home Games when coming off a loss … With Oregon 0-5 ‘In The Stats’ the last five games, we recommend a 1* play on Arizona State. Thank you and good luck as always.
> > Marc’s College Football Perfect System Club Game Of The Week goes Saturday. Make plans now to put this beauty right at the top of your ticket!
My free play is on BYU at 10:15 ET.
The Cougars were coming off a rare "off year" in 2017, going just 4-9. It ended a run of 12 straight bowl appearances for BYU. In contrast, New Mexico State' 26-20 bowl win (in OT) over Utah St gave the Aggies a 7-6 record last season, with its bowl win marking the school's first bowl appearance since 1960! BYU opened the 2018 season 4-1, including wins at Arizona (28-23) and a shocking 24-21 win at then-No. 6 Wisconsin (as a 23 1/2-point underdog). At 4-1 BYU was ranked 20th in the AP poll. However, BYU stumbles into this game just 5-5 and needing a win here, just to become bowl-eligible. As for New Mexico State, the Aggies have been unable to match last year's success, as they visit Provo just 3-7. A defense that is allowing 42.3 PPG (127th) on 491.7 YPG (122nd) has been a 'killer.'
New Mexico State has beaten only 1-9 UTEP, 4-5 Liberty and Alcorn St, an FCS school. The team's lone road win came at UTEP, 27-20. The defense is allowing 44.2 PPG on the road and on the season, the offense ranks 82nd in scoring (27.2 PPG) on 374.6 YPG (92nd). When one thinks of BYU's heydays, one thinks offense. That's NOT been the case in 2018, as the Cougars are averaging only 23.3 PPG (104th) on 339.1 YPG (115th). However, BYU's defense has been sturdy, allowing a modest 21.5 PPG (30th) on 329.2 YPG (23rd).
Can't see BYU missing out on a bowl by losing here and with a trip to Utah up next (note: Cougars have lost seven straight "Holy Wars!"), the Cougars should leave little doubt about the outcome of this contest. This is BYU's final home game and prior to losing last season to UMass in its final home game, BYU had won 11 straight. Lay the big points.
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Saturday's FREE NCAAF WINNER: Boston College.
12:30 pm pst.
Even if QB, Anthony Brown is sidelined here, this line should be closer to a TD. Adequate backup, EJ Perry can still exploit the 110th ranked pass defense of Florida State. BC can crutch on RB, AJ Dillon (936 YR, 8 TD's), while the Eagle's defense overmatches one of the worst offensive units in college football. Boston College is 16-3 ATS the last 19 regular season games, 6-1 ATS the last seven games vs. teams with a losing record, 12-3-1 ATS the last 26 conference games, and 19-7 ATS the last 26 road games. Take the Eagles. Thank you.
Wisconsin @ Purdue 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Wisconsin +4.0
Wisconsin is coming off last Saturday’s 22-10 loss at Penn State. Since 2005, Wisconsin is 34-1 following a loss when playing after Game 6 of their season and when facing an opponent with a win percentage of .500 or worse. That also includes 16-0 straight up in their last 16 games when cast into that specific role.
Purdue is coming off an embarrassing 41-10 loss at Minnesota and they did so as an 11.0-point favorite. That defeat dropper the Boilermakers record to 5-5.
Any conference away underdog of 1.5 to 7.0-points (Wisconsin) that’s coming off a conference game, versus an opponent (Purdue) coming off a conference straight up loss as a favorite of 10.0 to 21.0-points, and they (Purdue) possess a win percentage of .777 or worse, resulted in those away underdogs going 16-0 ATS since 1989. Take Wisconsin plus the points.
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Kansas Jayhawks and the Oklahoma Sooners face off on Saturday and in this game the value lies with the favorites.
The Sooners know they have an outside chance to make the college football playoff, and to get that done they are going to need some help and make a good impression.
Against a bad Jayhawks team I think this is one where they try and run up the score and they can cover this large number.
Back the Sooners
8* Cappers Club Power Play on Sooners -34
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10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Florida St +1.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Seminoles at basically a pick'em at home against the Eagles. I've stayed clear of Florida State this season and it's not so much I'm playing on them as it is I'm fading Boston College. This is is just one of those spots teams really struggle to play well in. Last week the Eagles hosting Clemson with 1st place on the line in the ACC Atlantic.
BC just went from playing for everything to playing for nothing, as they are locked into a bowl at 7-3. I get the opponent here is Florida State and they are a brand name, but the Seminoles are a complete afterthought this season. I just don't think it's a big enough game or opponent for BC to pick themselves off the mat.
On the flip side of this, there's a lot of pride on the line for the Seminoles, who need to win their final two games to get to that 6-win mark. I think that still means something to these players. No one wants to be remembered as a guy who was part of the worst teams in school history. I think they bring their best effort here and that should be more than enough for them to get the win at home. Give me Florida State +1.5!
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TWO 10-Stars go today. Upset Alert Game of the Year and BIG-12 Total of the Year
John Ryan Sports Research Report
The Play and the Matchup
Northwestern (6 - 4) At Minnesota (5 - 5)
Week 12 Saturday, 11/17/2018 12:00 PM
SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
Place a 5-star wager (3 to 10-star grading scale) on the Gophers which the market has priced them as 2.5-point home favorites.
SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Gophers to score 28 or more points and have at least 1 fewer turnover than Northwestern. Home teams in the BIG-TEN conference that have scored 28 or more points and won the turnover battle are 300-18 SU winning by an average of 25.5 points and 226-86-6 ATS for 73% and covering by an average of 8.5 PPG. Specifically, Minnesota is 25-1 SU winning by 18 points per game and 18-8 ATS covering by an average of 8 points.
This database situational query has produced a 77-36 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1992. Play against a road team (NORTHWESTERN) off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points and is now facing an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.
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