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253 Houston at Indianapolis
Neither team has been very impressive thus far, but we feel like the wrong team is favored here. While the Texans are 0-3 both SU & ATS, the team has shown some positives. Houston is beating the opposition in early down success rate, and is virtually even in play success rates. The Texans are also +3 in sacks and +9 in explosive plays vs the opposition.
Indy is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS but haven't fared quite as well as the Texans when looking at advanced stats. The Colts are really struggling in early down success rate, especially the first two games against Cincinnati and Washington. Indy has also lost all three games when it comes to successful plays percentage. This is a team that also has struggled with explosive plays, producing 10 while allowing 16. Andrew Luck just doesn't have the arm strength to stretch the field.
Though I successfully played against them at Arizona, where they failed to cover, the Bears still found a way to win the game. They're now 2-1 and could easily be 3-0. They know that they can ill afford to "relax" though. After this game, the Bears are on the road (at Miami) and then they host New England. In other words, taking care of business here is key. With the Bucs off a Monday night game, playing on a short week, expect the Bears to "keep on rolling," covering the small number along the way. Consider Chicago.
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