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1* Free NFL Pick on Pittsburgh Steelers +7 -125
I love the value here with the Steelers getting a touchdown at San Francisco. With the injury to Ben Roethlisberger no one is giving this Pittsburgh team any shot of being a serious threat this season. I would hesitate before counting out this team.
Sure they might throw in the towel if they string together a bunch more losses, but not way is a Mike Tomlin coached team going to just lay down. You don't make a trade for a guy like Minkah Fitzpatrick if you aren't planning on trying to win.
Mason Rudolph isn't Ben Roethlisberger, but he didn't look overwhelmed at all in relief of Big Ben against the Seahawks. Rudolph completed 12 of 19 for 112 yards and 2 scores. 49ers defense has some decent numbers, but I don't think either of the offenses they have played are in any good.
I also think we are seeing the 49ers overvalued because they have started out 2-0. This is a team a lot of people were high on, so the public isn't hesitating to jump on board. I just don't think SF is good enough to be laying this kind of a number against a team like the Steelers who are going to lay everything they have on the line to win this game. Take Pittsburgh!
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10* FREE NFL PICK (Cardinals +2.5)
I'll take my chances here with Arizona at basically a pick'em at home. I got on this line before it swapped sides, but I still highly recommend the Cardinals in this spot. I just think after everything the Panthers went through last year in that awful 2nd half collapse, it's going to be hard for them to deal with another Cam Newton injury.
Kyle Allen had a decent game in his only start last year at New Orleans, but that came in Week 17 with the Saints resting their starters. He threw for 228 yards and 2 scores, but that's not saying much given the circumstances.
I was really high on this Arizona team and I've seen enough out of Kyler Murray to believe they made the right call there. Murray is only going to keep getting better with each start. Panthers secondary is definitely the weak link of that defense. I just don't see Allen being able to keep pace with Murray in this one. Give me the Cardinals +2.5!
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Detroit at Philadelphia
Eagles (-) over Lions- Yeah right...like I believe the Lions have a chance here...NOPE! 'We' were fortunate to get the outright win last week with Detroit but that's as far as I will push my luck with this bunch. The Eagles fell to the Falcons as expected and return home to host this bunch of imposters. Sorry, Lions fans but your team is full off underachievers and have little to offer in coaching. Philadelphia is facing some issues at quarterback (who isn't) but Doug Peterson is 9-2-1 ATS at home when hosting an opponent off a win. Take the EAGLES! (PS-this is a 'Hate' bet...)
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Play - Cincinnati Bengals (Game 467).
Edges - Bengals:
Bills: 12-6-1 ATS Game Three of the season, and 4-1 ATS as dogs versus NFL foes … Bills: 3-13 SU and 4-11-1 ATS off consecutive SUATS wins… We recommend a 1* play on Cincinnati. Thank you good luck as always.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Arizona Cardinals -2
I like what I’ve seen from the Arizona Cardinals thus far under Kliff Kingsbury. They are 2-0 ATS this season. They tied Detroit in overtime with a nice comeback win. And they hung tough on the road at Baltimore last week in a 6-point loss as 13-point dogs. Kyler Murray is showing a ton of moxy in this offense. The Carolina Panthers are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall dating back to last season. They just keep finding ways to lose close games. And now they probably won’t have Cam Newton, which means backup Kyle Allen will start. Allen started over Murray at Texas A&M back in college, so you know Murray will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Arizona is 29-13 ATS in its last 42 home games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Give me the Cardinals.
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The set-up: Drew Brees is out for the Saints. Teddy Bridgewater is in. The Seahawks are 2-0 after an upset road victory at Pittsburgh last weekend and with a date vs. the co-division leading Rams in Week 4, I believe the home side lays everything on the line this week in order to secure the 3-0 start. The Saints are reeling now, but the offense looked terrible last week before Brees went down anyways. I don’t foresee anything changing in a week and with the major change at the QB position.
The pick: Seattle has been getting consistent play on both sides of the ball and Russell Wilson and company are now licking their chops to get a shot at this suspect New Orleans’ secondary. Note that the Saints are just 1-3 ATS in their last four anyways after a loss by ten or more points, while Seattle is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after a victory by six points or less. Consider the home side in this one.
Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Ravens/Chiefs UNDER 53
This is one of the biggest games on the Week 3 slate. It’s two teams that look like contenders in the AFC in the Ravens and Chiefs squaring off. And I think this game will be played close to the vest with points a lot harder to come by than this massive total of 53 would indicate. I certainly believe there’s value with the UNDER for a number of reasons.
For starters, these teams played last December in Kansas City in a game that saw 51 combined points in a 27-24 win by the Chiefs. So they are very familiar with one another as they will now be playing in a rematch early in the season after playing late in the year last season.
The Ravens have a great defense every year and are great again this season. They are giving up just 13.5 points and 274.5 yards per game through two weeks. The Chiefs are clearly improved on defense this season with all of the upgrades they made in the offseason. They are only allowing 18.0 points per game on the season after holding the Raiders to just 10 points last week on the road. And keep in mind the Chiefs’ defense always plays better at home in the friendly, loud confines of Arrowhead Stadium.
The Ravens aren’t as good offensively as they’ve shown thus far. They have played two of the worst defenses in the NFL in the Dolphins and Cardinals. Lamar Jackson looks improved, but now he faces a different animal here in the Chiefs on the road. And I expect the Ravens to deploy a similar strategy to last year’s meeting. They ran the ball 39 times and controlled time of possession to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. They will do the same and try and shorten this game, which definitely favors the UNDER.
UNDERS went 13-3 last week in the NFL. I think all these extra holding penalties being called on the offenses has certainly favored lower scoring games and finally there’s some rules that benefit the defenses. The UNDER is 50-23-1 in the Chiefs’ last 74 home games. Finally, there is a 60% chance of rain Sunday in Kansas City with the forecast calling for scattered thunderstorms. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
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Dave’s Sunday Free Play:
1* on Bengals/Bills UNDER 44.5
The Key: The Bills had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season, and they are at it again this year. They are giving up just 15.0 PPG and 296.5 YPG and 4.7 YPP thus far in beating both the Jets and Giants on the road. They like to run the football, control time of possession and play to their strength, which is their defense. The Bengals actually have plenty of talent on defense, and Andy Dalton and the offense just can’t be trusted to score points, especially without their best player in AJ Green. That’s why I like the UNDER in this game Sunday. The Bengals are 16-3 UNDER in their last 19 road games after allowing 450 or more yards in their previous game. The UNDER is 34-16-1 in Bengals last 51 road games against a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games overall. Take the UNDER.
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The New York Giants are 0-2 SU and ATS on the season, but they've finally decided to give rookie Daniel Jones under center for his first NFL start. I think the change of quarterback will give the Giants enough of an energy boost to keep this close.
Jones completed 29-of-34 passes for 416 yards, two TDs, and no interceptions during preseason, and I think he'll match up well against a Bucs defense that is vulnerable against the pass. The Giants offense has not been bad mind you; they rank 6th for total offense with 420 yards per game and star running back Saquon Barkley, NFL's second-leading rusher with 227 yards, will take a lot of pressure off Jones.
As for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they're in a letdown spot following a 20-14 upset win at Carolina in the Week 2. They didn't look nearly as good in their season-opening double-digit home loss to San Francisco, and Jameis Winston has a 59 percent completion rate with 2 TDs against 3 INTs.
The Giants are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 as a road underdog while the Bucs regularly disappoint as a home favorite. I'm well happy to take the points on the visitors in this contest.
Free pick on New York Giants.
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The NFL Comp Play for Sunday is on the NY. Jets plus the 22 points at 1:00 eastern. The Jets have a good enough defense to stay in this one and Week 3 road dogs of more than 12 that are 0-2 have covered 19 of 25 times since 1977 including last years Buffalo team which blast the Vikings as a 16 point dog. The Pats with Brady are 0-4 ats in games with a spread of 20 or more.The Jets may actually better with Falk at Qb than with Simeyian. The Patriots cut Brown on Friday and dont view this game as a rivalry psychologically they may be looking ahead to next weeks game at Buffalo. Look for the Pats to win but not cover in this one. For the NFL Comp Play take the Jets at +22. RV- GC Sports
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