*4 Star Play on LA Dodgers -1.5* Tyler Pill makes a start here against the red hot Dodgers bats. I don't think it will go well for him. Just last year, Pill was in Double A and wasn't even considered much of a prospect. He struck out only 4.22 batters per nine innings at Triple A this season. He had a 4.13 FIP and a 5.09 xFIP at Triple A. 

The Dodgers are hottest lineup in the National League, and they have been the best lineup against right handed pitching in the NL so far this season. The Dodgers have scored 40 runs in their last 4 games. I don't think a guy with limited stuff like Pill is a good fit to slow them down. The Mets bullpen is overworked of late, and they aren't very good anyways.

The Mets aren't good against lefties, and while Rich Hill has been mediocre this year I think he'll be decent enough here. The Dodgers bullpen is excellent, and that's a major advantage for them here.

Take the LA Dodgers -1.5. 

*3 Star Play Over* Tyson Ross and Joe Biagini are the starters in this one Wednesday night in Texas.

Ross is a guy who walks a ton of batters, and that usually comes back to bite you in a park like this, especially against a good offense. Ross walked 5.30 batters per nine innings in four Triple A starts this year. He had a 7.71 ERA and 6.71 FIP in the minors. He pitched well in his first big league start, but I think he'll have a tough time against this deep Blue Jays lineup. He doesn't pitch deep in the game and the Rangers bullpen isn't good at all.

Biagini has had declining velocity in his last few starts, and he's been prone to blowups on occasion. Pitching in Texas in 90 degree heat and against a lineup that is very good against right handed pitching is a tough matchup for him.

Sam Holbrook is the umpire here, and over umpires don't come much better than Holbrook. The over has hit 55.6% of the time in his games behind home plate in his career.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander on Wednesday night.

Verlander has been really bad this year. His 4.50 ERA doesn't even tell the whole picture of how bad he has been. His hard contact percentage is 10% higher than last year and is the highest of his career. Batters are barreling up on him very often. His SIERA is 5.02. Verlander has had issues with control in recent starts as well.

The Mariners start James Paxton. Paxton was amazing early in the season, but he has been shaky of late. If he was in better form, this would have been a 5 star play, but I do still like it a good amount. Paxton goes back home to a pitcher-friendly park and faces a Tigers team without a key contributor in Victor Martinez.

The Tigers bullpen is one of the two or three worst in the majors. Seattle's bullpen is at least as good as the league average and some stats make them a little better than average. 

The Mariners have a lot of value at this price.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Pirates start Trevor Williams here. He is a decent prospect who has pitched better in recent outings. Williams started out very poorly in the bigs, but improved control has made a big difference for him of late. 

Junior Guerra starts for the Brewers here. He has had awful control of late. Guerra has a 2.84 ERA and a 6.06 FIP. He is in line for some serious regression. In his last five starts, he has at least 3 walks in each of them. He has walked four guys in each of his last two outings. That isn't a recipe for success in the long run.

The Brewers offense is still pretty good, but they do miss Ryan Braun. The Pirates are finally getting healthy and with Polanco contributing on offense now I do expect improved numbers from Pittsburgh moving forward.

Fading a pitcher favored who has major control problems is a strategy I've used successfully in the past. I'm taking the Pirates here plus the money.

Take Pittsburgh.