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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-19-15 | Iowa -1.5 v. Marquette | Top | 89-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
Oakland came through last night as the experience factor paid off and we go a similar route tonight. Iowa is coming off a 22-12 season that was filled with many feats that had not happened in a while as the Hawkeyes went 12-6 in the Big Ten, their best conference record in nearly a decade, and they had their longest conference winning streak in nearly two decades. Iowa went 7-3 on the road last season so coming in here is not an issue, especially with four starters back from last season's successful team. It was a tough year for Marquette as it went 13-19 overall in the first season for head coach Steve Wojciechowski. Lack of experience was a big issue as many players were lost from the previous season but going forward, there is not a whole lot of it again this season. There is not one scholarship senior on the roster so it should take some time for this team to come together. The Golden Eagles lost to Belmont to pen the season, albeit a very good Bruins team, but nearly losing to Indiana-Purdue on their home floor should never take place. Iowa faces its toughest team to date but the fact that it has blown out its opponent in the first two games shows it is in better shape. The Hawkeyes have a solid experience situation as we play on teams coming off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (723) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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11-19-15 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 42.5 | Top | 13-19 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
The under is 4-0-1 the last five Thursday night NFL games and while past outcomes do not predict future results, I think we are due for a shootout here. Neither Tennessee nor Jacksonville are known for their potent offenses but both are capable especially going up against these opposing defenses. Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has not put up eye-popping numbers but he has a quarterback rating of 98.3 which is good for ninth best in the NFL and he is clearly getting more comfortable. Jacksonville is 26th in the league in opposing quarterback rating at 99.7 and the Jaguars have given up their fair share of points as they have allowed fewer than 20 points only once this season and have given up an average of 28.3 ppg. On the other side, Blake Bortles has not been nearly as efficient but he too has improved as the season has gone on. While the Titans defense is solid in yards allowed, they are allowing a passer rating of 95.1 to the opposition, which is 22nd in the NFL. Both possess pretty poor rushing offenses so we should see a lot of passing Thursday night. Overall, the teams are a combined 11-7 to the over and we are getting a very reasonable number here. The over is 13-6 in the Titans last 19 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while the over is 6-2 in the Jaguars last eight home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* Over (309) Tennessee Titans/(310) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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11-19-15 | East Carolina v. Central Florida +15 | Top | 44-7 | Loss | -112 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
Many predicted a dropoff from East Carolina this season following a 26-13 three-year run and we are definitely seeing that. The Pirates lost quarterback Shane Carden, their top running back and their two top wide receivers so replacing that production was sure to be a challenge. Add to that, the defense lost six starters and that unit has dropped off as well. East Carolina has now dropped three straight games to fall to 4-6 and its decade-long bowl run is in jeopardy. Granted, winning this one seems like a layup facing a winless UCF Knights team but winning by more than two touchdowns does not seem possible against any opponent at this point. While it has been a dropoff for the Pirates, it has been even worse for UCF. Over the same three-year span, the Knights went 31-9 so they have already dropped more games this season than those three years combined. The most troubling part is that UCF came into the season as contenders in the AAC thanks to nine starters returning on offense. Only two of their last seven games have been at home and both came against teams .500 or better so the schedule hasn't done much to help. The Pirates have been favorites in their last three losses to fall to 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games in that role including going 1-4 ATS as a road favorite. ESPN did not anticipate the records of these teams when scheduling this game but it is what it is and UCF will treat this one as its bowl game. 10* (312) UCF Knights |
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11-19-15 | Sharks v. Flyers +115 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
San Jose is off to a 3-0 start on this current roadtrip but it has been a far from dominant exhibition as two wins have been by one goal in regulation while the third came by a goal in overtime. The run has been much needed as the Sharks are now just 6-8 in their last 14 games following a perfect 4-0 start. San Jose has been very solid on the highway, going 7-3, but because of that, it is paying the price as we see here. The Flyers are off to a rough start, which was anticipated, but playing them in spots is what needs to be done and this is one of those. They have dropped nine of their last 11 games, which is certainly playing into this line as well, and this includes five straight losses at home. That makes this the ultimate contrarian play as Philadelphia looks to avoid its longest home skid since 2011 while San Jose will be out to produce its longest road winning streak since 2011. Additionally, the Sharks have won seven straight meetings in this series in Philadelphia which adds to the contrarian piece. Despite the recent short run for San Jose, it is 9-18 in its last 27 games following a road win while going back, the Flyers are 8-3 in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (56) Philadelphia Flyers |
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11-18-15 | Kings v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Atlanta opened the season 8-2 but it has now dropped three straight games including a pretty embarrassing loss at Brooklyn last night, just the second win of the season for the Nets. The last two defeats have come by a combined three points so it hasn't had a fortunate run as things could have gone the other way. The losing streak, along with the fact that the Hawks have dropped five straight games against the number, is giving us a very good number. Sacramento is also helping with the low line as the Kings have won three straight games following a six-game losing streak. It is a nice run but all of those wins came at home and overall, they are coming off a six-game homestand. This is the first road game since November 4th and just the third road game of the season as nine of the first 11 games have taken place at home. Additionally, those first two road games were on the west coast so now comes a real trip. Point guard Jeff Teague has missed the last two games, and is questionable tonight but despite his absence being a big one, this line is not where it should be given the difference between these two teams. Atlanta has dominated this series with 14 straight wins and most of those were with a below average Hawks team and the Kings are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games off an upset win as an underdog. 10* (514) Atlanta Hawks |
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11-18-15 | Central Michigan -10 v. Kent State | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
As mentioned yesterday, we are at the point of the season with only a few games remaining where teams are just playing out the string while others are still striving to win and improve their record. We backed Ohio which rolled to its seventh win of the season last night and seven wins is a minimum when it comes to gaining a bowl berth in this conference and Central Michigan finds itself in a predicament. The Chippewas lost to Toledo last week to fall to 5-5 so they have to win out to make any sort of claim for a postseason berth and they should be able to accomplish this with a light finish to the schedule. One reason for playing against Ball St. last night was because it registered its seventh loss in its previous game so motivation going forward was a question and we saw there was none. That should be the case with Kent St. tonight as the Golden Flashes lost their seventh game of the season last Tuesday at Ohio which makes it three straight years of not going to a bowl game. We do not have to worry about a backdoor cover here as Kent St. has one of the worst offenses in the country as it is averaging 283.7 ypg, third worst overall while its 4.12 yppl is in fact the lowest in the country. The Golden Flashes are the lowest scoring team in all of the FBS with 14.3 ppg and that drops to 7.8 ppg over their last five games. Kent St. is 4-19 ATS in its last 23 games after gaining 225 or fewer total yards in its previous game while the Chippewas are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. 10* (307) Central Michigan Chippewas |
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11-18-15 | Eastern Michigan v. Oakland -8 | Top | 81-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is a game where expereience and team chemistry comes into play. Eastern Michigan is coming off a win in its season opener but that was against Vermont and it took a big second half to get it done after the Eagles trailed at halftime. This is the first test for Eastern Michigan in what is expected to be trying season, at least early on. The Eagles lost four starters from last season which was the second straight that registered 20 or more wins, the first time in two decades that has happened. While the one starter back is Raven Lee, who led the MAC in scoring last season with 16.7 ppg, he will not be suited up tonight as he has been suspended six games for a violation of team rules. Oakland is playing its first game of the season tonight which is definitely an advantage as the Eagles have nothing to look at. The Golden Grizzlies took a team trip to Spain in August where they went 3-0 but more importantly, got a chance to get early work in and bond. Oakland has five of their top seven scorers back this season and should greatly improve upon their 16-17 record from a season ago. They opened 0-4 and one of those losses came in Ypsilanti, with Eastern Michigan rolling by 12 points so Oakland should be extra fired up for its first game of the season. A great situation arises as we play on favorites with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season. This situation is 168-94 ATS (64.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (530) Oakland Golden Grizzlies |
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11-17-15 | Devils v. Flames -119 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
It has not been the start that Calgary was banking on but a return home could get things going the right way. Calgary concluded a 1-3 road trip by getting dominated 4-1 by the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks on Sunday. The Flames were a playoff team for the first time in six years last season despite an eight-game losing skid in December and losing their captain Mark Giordano to injury for the final quarter of the regular season. The Flames are 3-5 at home but have won two straight at the Saddledome and they have not lost to New Jersey at home since 2007. What a turnaround it has been for New Jersey. The Devils earned their fourth win in five games Saturday following a 4-0 victory over Pittsburgh on Saturday, two days after a 3-2 win at defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago. Last year was rock bottom, as their 78 points were the fewest in franchise history for an 82-game season. Calgary falls into a situation where we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 that are coming off a win by three goals or more over a division rival, playing a losing team. This situation is 65-41 (61.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (66) Calgary Flames |
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11-17-15 | Hornets v. Knicks OVER 195.5 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Charlotte and New York meet for the second time in less than a week and while the game was not decided until the final buzzer, the game stayed well below the total as 188 total points were scored in a game that closed with a 200.5 over/under. We are now getting a number that is a couple buckets lower than that obviously due to that result but also to extended runs from both sides. Charlotte is 3-0-1 to the under in its last four games with all those games closing at 199 or higher while the Knicks have gone under in three straight games and seven of their last eight games and tonight's number is the lowest of the bunch. The offense should continue to get better with the improved play of Carmelo Anthony as through the first six games, he shot 37.5 percent or worse five times but since then, he is averaging 26.6 ppg on 45.9 percent shooting and 38.7 percent from long range. Going back, New York is 67-41 to the over in its last 108 games as a home underdog of three points or less while the Hornets are 7-1 to the over their last eight games against teams with a losing record. We see a much higher scoring game here than what we saw last week. 10* Over (709) Charlotte Hornets/(710) New York Knicks |
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11-17-15 | Ball State v. Ohio -8.5 | Top | 31-48 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
We are at the point of the season with only a few games remaining where teams are just playing out the string while others are still striving to win and improve their record. That is the case in this game where we see Ohio at 6-4 after securing bowl eligibility last week with a win against Kent St. while Ball St. saw its postseason hopes shattered in an ugly 54-7 loss against Western Michigan. The Cardinals are 3-7 and will have little interest here on the road especially with their final game of the season taking place next week at home. The Bobcats have struggled on offense over the last four games but it has progressively gotten better which is a good sign and now facing Ball St., we should see another big jump. Ball St. is one of 10 teams in the country that are allowing more than 500 ypg as it is ranked 118th in that category, ahead of only Eastern Michigan of all MAC teams. The Cardinals have been outgained in each of their last seven games including being outyarded by a whopping 559 yards in their last game against the Broncos. The Bobcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a losing road record while the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (304) Ohio Bobcats |
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11-17-15 | Colorado v. Auburn -1.5 | Top | 91-84 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
**3:00 PM ET start** Auburn made a very surprising run in the SEC Tournament last season until fatigue finally caught up to the Tigers as they were eliminated by Kentucky. It was a solid end to Bruce Pearl's fist season at Auburn and he is expecting this year to be much better. He truly thinks he has an NCAA Tournament bound team and while that may be pushing it, this will be an improved team despite losing three starters. Auburn brought in the No. 28 recruiting class in the nation and that did not even include transfer T.J. Dunans, who was the top ranked JUCO prospect in the nation. After three straight NCAA Tournament appearances, Colorado slipped mightily last season, finishing with just 16 victory and an early exit in the CBI Tournament. Injuries hurt the Buffaloes and there is plenty to replace this season on offense and the defense was very poor. Colorado lost its opening game against Iowa St., which took place in South Dakota, and now hits the road for its first true road game against a very motivated team. A year ago to the day, Auburn went to Boulder and got crushed by 31 points so the Tigers will be out to avenge that loss today. 10* (722) Auburn Tigers |
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11-16-15 | Texans +11 v. Bengals | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Despite a losing record on the season, Houston is outgaining their opponents by an average of 18.5 ypg and even with all of the inconsistencies, the Texans are just a half -game of the Colts in the AFC South. Houston is coming off a win over Tennessee in its last game, two weeks ago. On Sunday, Carolina and New England were able to keep their perfect records alive and it will be up to Cincinnati to do the same tonight. A pair of bookend wins over Oakland and Cleveland saw domination on the stat sheet but the six games in-between had the Bengals just +28 total yards in the positive against opponents. Even more on our side is that fact that Cincinnati has yet to fail to cover a game and that is running this number up with the Monday night public going all-in on the home favorite. The Texans fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 ypc or less going up against teams allowing 4.5 ypc or more, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (275) Houston Texans |
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11-16-15 | Celtics v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 111-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Following a pair of upsets over the weekend, the Celtics are over .500 for the first time since opening the season 1-0 following a win over Philadelphia. Boston defeated Atlanta at home on Friday and then took out the Thunder last night on the road by 15 points thanks to a 28-11 fourth quarter. That puts the Celtics in a letdown situation for tonight and they are facing the wrong opponent at the wrong time. While the Celtics are trending up, the Rockets are going in the wrong direction as they have dropped three straight games and are now a dismal 4-6 on the season. The defense has been the issue as the Rockets are allowing opponents to shoot 47 percent from the floor while giving up 108.3 ppg. Because of the struggles, Houston is laying a very reasonable number tonight and is actually laying fewer points tonight than they did in their last game against a better Dallas team. Houston is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games following a double-digit loss while going 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (506) Houston Rockets |
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11-15-15 | Blazers v. Hornets UNDER 204.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Portland's totals have been all over the place over the last 11 days, ranging from 189.5 to 206 yet the Trailblazers have surpassed the total in each and every game. We are getting a number on the high side for Sunday and we are banking on a lower scoring game and that over streak coming to an end. It is a run that is surprising based on the fact that Portland is just 18th in the NBA in pace, averaging just 99.7 possessions per game. On the other side, Charlotte is 26th in the pace category as it averages just 98.6 possessions per game and its recent run of three straight unders coincides with that. While the Trailblazers have seen totals from all angles, this is the highest one that the Hornets have encountered this season. In all three games that Charlotte has had a total in the 200's, all fell below the mark of what it has here Sunday. This has been a high-scoring series as each of the last three years has resulted in a sweep of the over but again, this is the highest number of them all. 10* Under (705) Portland Trailblazers/(706) Charlotte Hornets |
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11-15-15 | Patriots v. Giants +7.5 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 71 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the GIANTS for our Non-Conference Game of the Month. The Patriots are rolling and their mission to go undefeated remains intact following a win over Washington last week. That was the last of three straight home games which puts them in a very unfavorable situation as explained later. Laying points on the road is one thing but laying this many points is absurd. Basically, with a three-point edge for home field, New England would be a 13-5-point favorite at home against the Giants, the same number they were laying against the Redskins last week and that simply does not jive. The Giants have been off and on this season as they are 5-4 following a road win over Tampa Bay last week, their second straight road game. They are finding ways to win as they have been outgained in eight of nine games which is usually a bad trend to have and they could easily be 7-2 right now if not for late losses against Dallas, Atlanta and New Orleans. Here, we play against road favorites that are coming off a home win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 90-50 ATS (64.3 percent) since 1983. As mentioned, the Patriots are coming off three straight home games and teams favored by more than three points playing a non-divisional game are a dismal 3-19 ATS. 10* (272) New York Giants |
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11-15-15 | Vikings v. Raiders -3 | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -100 | 71 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the RAIDERS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Raiders are arguably one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season. The numbers are not overly great as they are getting outgained overall on the season but they are 4-4 with three of those losses coming by a combined 11 points so things could be better than their 4-4 record shows. Oakland has the playmakers that they have not had in recent years and quarterback Derek Carr is turning heads and is likely going to be a star in this league. There is absolutely no quit in this team and the coaching staff is finally one that looks to be the right fit. Minnesota is looking pretty solid as well at 6-2 and while it too can be put into that most improved group, we saw good things out of them last season when they finished the season 5-4. After losing the opener in San Francisco, the Vikings have only one loss which came by just three points at Denver and they have covered every game since. Coming off four straight wins, heading to the west coast and with a game against Green Bay on deck, they are not in a good spot here at all. Additionally, we play on favorites averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 295 and 335 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (268) Oakland Raiders |
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11-15-15 | Panthers v. Titans +6 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on TENNESSEE for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Tennessee is coming off a very impressive win last week over New Orleans and while that could normally spell letdown, that is not the case here. While they are just 2-6, the Titans trail the Colts by only a game and a half in the AFC South and with Andrew Luck on the shelf for at least a month, this division is up for grabs. Tennessee has outgained five of eight opponents and of their six losses, three have come by a combined six points. The Titans are back home after two straight road games and face off against the undefeated Panthers. Carolina defeated Green Bay last week as they dodged a late bullet and that was their third straight home game which puts them in a very unfavorable situation as explained later. While the Panthers have outgained six of eight opponents this season, the most they have outgained any one opponent is by just 51 yards so they have been hardly dominant. Tennessee falls into a fantastic situation a we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. As mentioned, the Panthers are coming off three straight home games and teams favored by more than three points playing a non-divisional game are a dismal 3-19 ATS. 10* (256) Tennessee Titans |
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11-15-15 | Bears v. Rams OVER 42.5 | Top | 37-13 | Win | 100 | 68 h 2 m | Show |
We lost with the Bears/Chargers over on Monday night but will come back with it here as the Bears head to St. Louis feeling pretty good about themselves. There was plenty of offense last week as Chicago gained 446 yards but unfortunately managed just 22 points. While they are facing a tougher defense this week, we are getting a much better number to work with which is partly due to the Bears going 5-1 to the under over their last six games. Speaking of unders, St. Louis has gone under the total in each of its last four games and six of its last seven so that is also playing into this total. Considering the last two games have come against two of the three worst offenses in the NFL and the total is just a couple points higher here, it shows the value involved. The Rams have allowed a total of 24 points in their last three home games but two of those came against offenses ranked 27th and 32nd while the other came against the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out. Chicago will be able to move the ball. On the other side, the Bears defense is 27th in points allowed and St. Louis has averaged a solid 22.8 ppg at home this season. Chicago is 9-1 to the over in it last 10 road games after one or more consecutive wins with the average points being 62.1 ppg while Str. Louis is 6-0 to the over in its last six after a loss by six or less points with the average point total being 53.5 ppg. 10* Over (257) Chicago Bears/(258) St. Louis Rams |
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11-15-15 | Lions v. Packers -11 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. As quickly as a team is one of the best in the NFL in the eyes of the public, they can turn on a dime and now the Packers are nowhere near the powerhouse they were just three weeks ago. I disagree with that and a return home is just what this team needs. Back-to-back road losses at Denver and Carolina are nothing to be ashamed of as they are a combined 15-1 so this is the perfect spot for a beatdown. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best in the business at home and coming off a loss so putting the two together spells disaster for the Lions. Detroit got destroyed at Kansas City two weeks ago to fall to 1-7 and while it is coming off a bye week, that won't matter here. The Lions season is done and there is already talk about Matthew Stafford leaving the team in the offseason. He has never defeated a team on the road with a winning percentage of .750 or better as he is 0-10 in this spot. We are also well aware of the Packers home dominance in this series and while we aren't using that as part of this play, it is still a very significant psychological factor. Here, we play on favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off a road loss, in the second half of the season. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Detroit is 0-12 ATS against teams who commit one or less turnovers per game in the second half of the season. 10* (252) Green Bay Packers |
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11-14-15 | Oregon State v. California OVER 59.5 | Top | 24-54 | Win | 100 | 58 h 21 m | Show |
We lost with the over in the California/Oregon game last week by three points as 72 points were scored in the game where the posted total closed at 75. We will come back with the over this week as the Golden Bears are on a 6-0 under streak but two things are in our favor here. A lot of those unders were close to going over and this is the lowest posted total over this stretch and at this number, half of those would have gone over. The offense is ranked 23rd in the nation and needs to get rolling again after a strong start but having a tough time scoring points the last few weeks. Of course, three of those games were on the road and the lone home game was against USC. We lost with Oregon St. last week as tit was dismantled at home against UCLA, its sixth straight loss. Backing them against to cover is not happening this week as the 92nd ranked defense faces another massive test but what makes the Beavers a good over bet here is that the offense will be facing the 110th ranked defense in the country. This after facing two tough defenses in the first two games without starting quarterback Seth Collins. While the Golden Bears are on an under run, the Beavers have gone under in three straight games but the over is 4-0 in the Beavers last four games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (195) Oregon St. Beavers/(196) California Golden Bears |
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11-14-15 | Fordham v. Texas-Arlington -1.5 | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
College hoops teams are granted the rights to take an overseas exhibition trip once every four years and it can be a huge advantage for some teams, especially those that do not have a big returning nucleus. That is the case for UT-Arlington which lost its top four scorers from last season but headed out to the Bahamas in August for some early work and went 4-0 in four exhibition games, winning those by an average of 39 ppg. It should be noted that the best Mavericks team of late, the 2011-12 Southland Conference Championship team, also went out on a summer international trip. It has been a rough stretch for Fordham which went 44-106 over the last five seasons that led to the firing of head coach Tom Pecora. If that wasn't bad enough, Eric Paschall, the 2014-15 A-10 Rookie of the Year transferred out to Villanova after that so there is not a whole lot for new head coach to Jeff Neubauer to work with. The Rams have been notoriously horrible on the road, going just 6-60 over that aforementioned five-year stretch and the fact they are getting just under a bucket here means an outright loss likely means a non-cover as well. 10* (528) UT-Arlington Mavericks |
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11-14-15 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -2.5 | Top | 44-34 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on BAYLOR for our Saturday Star Attraction. Baylor continues to get snubbed in the College Football Playoff as it was place No. 6 last week and did not move this week despite a solid win at Kansas St. And the Bears were leapfrogged by Iowa, which moved from No. 9 to No. 5 despite a poor win over Indiana. This is the chance for the Bears to prove their worth and the fact this game is a primetime nationally televised game will only help them. This is clearly the toughest opponent they have faced but Baylor owns a 22-game home winning streak and there have been some big wins along the way and this is ne of the best Bears teams over that span. Oklahoma is looking good still as it is ranked No. 12 with big games left so this is definitely a must win for the Sooners. The Sooners have dominated of late but have played no one and in two games away from home against teams with a pulse resulted in a loss to Texas and a game they should have lost against Tennessee. Baylor falls into a solid situation as we play against road underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging 6.2 or more yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1992. Baylor is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games while the Sooners are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (188) Baylor Bears |
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11-14-15 | Magic v. Wizards -5.5 | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
After a 3-1 start, Washington has lost three straight games and none of those were pretty. Losses by 24, 15 and 20 points led to head coach Randy Whitman calling his team out as being soft and lacking confidence. "Effort. That's all it is," Wittman said Friday. "Loose balls. Effort. Who's going to dive on the floor? This team's capable of doing it. They've proven that." During the current losing streak, the Wizards, whose foundation for success during playoff runs the past two seasons was their defense, are giving up 119 ppg. The challenge is to correct that tonight against the surprisingly good Orlando Magic. They have won two straight and four of five games but they are catching Washington at the wrong time for sure. Because of the recent runs, we are getting line value here as Orlando was getting 4.5 points at home against Washington in its opener and now it is getting just one point more on he road. Here, we play on favorites that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 120 points or more. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (504) Washington Wizards |
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11-14-15 | Kentucky +3.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on KENTUCKY for our Saturday Enforcer. Kentucky was supposed to make some noise in the SEC and after 4-1 start with the lone loss coming against Florida by just five points, things were looking that way. Since then, the Wildcats have lost four straight but it has not been an easy slate. They lost to an average Auburn team by just three points but it has been three blowouts since then although those came against Mississippi St., Tennessee and Georgia, a pretty tough slate. Kentucky has to win two of its last three games to become bowl eligible and with the season finale against Louisville, this game, along with next week against Charlotte, are must wins games. Vanderbilt is also in must win mode as it has to win out to become bowl eligible but it is not going to be easy with Texas A&M and Tennessee after this. The Commodores have a very solid defense but they simply cannot score as they have not scored more than 10 points in four straight games. They are coming off a brutal loss last week as they had Florida on the ropes but lost on a late field goal 9-7 and that will be tough to recover from and the feeling here is they won't. Kentucky falls into a great situation as we play on road underdogs after two straight losses by 17 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 41-16 ATS (71.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (153) Kentucky Wildcats |
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11-14-15 | San Jose State v. Nevada OVER 52 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 52 h 53 m | Show |
San Jose St. hits the road following three straight home games and that is a big factor here in playing the over involving the Spartans. All three of those games went under the total as the defense was the difference and has been all season based on the venue. The Spartans are allowing 20.8 ppg in five home games but that average jumps to 33.5 ppg in four road games. The offense is ranked 73rd in the nation which is a little below average but they take on a very average Nevada defense that has overachieved the last six games. We say that because the teams they have faced over this stretch are ranked 121st, 122nd, 100th, 93rd, 64th and 81st so the numbers are definitely skewed. This of course has helped with all six of those games going below the total and this is despite the fact the Wolf Pack have scored 30 points or more in three of those six games. Because of that stretch, Nevada is seeing its lowest posted total of the season and while not by much, every little bit counts when it comes to these mid-range totals. This has historically been a low scoring series but again, this is the lowest number between these two teams since 2008. Going back, the over is 8-3 in the Spartans last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* Over (193) San Jose St. Spartans/(194) Nevada Wolf Pack |
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11-14-15 | Michigan v. Indiana +13.5 | Top | 48-41 | Win | 100 | 51 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on INDIANA for our Big Ten Game of the Year. We lost a tough one with the Hoosiers last week against Iowa as they came within a point of the cover. After opening the season 4-0, Indiana has dropped its last five games but the home contests have been more than competitive. Prior to last week, Indiana nearly shocked Ohio St. at home and the other conference home game resulted in a three-point loss against Rutgers despite winning the yardage battle. Now the Hoosiers are getting close to a touchdown more this week than they got against now 9-0 Iowa and while solid, we don't think Michigan is a better team than the Hawkeyes. The Wolverines have suffered a pair of tough losses this season and while they have dominated at home, the road has been more difficult and this is just their second road game since the begging of October with the only other game on the highway resulting in just a three-point win at Minnesota. Give credit to Michigan for bouncing back from that Michigan St. loss as it dominated Rutgers last week but with games against Penn St. and Ohio St. on deck, this is a tough sandwich spot. Michigan is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game while the Hoosiers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (128) Indiana Hoosiers |
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11-14-15 | Southern Miss v. Rice OVER 61 | Top | 65-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 23 m | Show |
It has been quite a turnaround for Southern Mississippi as after winning four games combined the last three seasons, the Golden Eagles because bowl eligible two weeks ago with a win over UTEP. They have been doing it with defense by allowing just 33 points over the last three games combined but those came against teams ranked 95th or worst in total offense. As far as the offense goes, Southern Mississippi is ranked 13th in the country, averaging 507.7 ypg which is close to 150 ypg more than last season. They have been held to fewer than 28 points only twice all season and that offense should flourish once again here as Rice comes in with the 102nd ranked defense and has allowed an average of 38.5 ppg against FBS teams, taking out an 16-point effort against Wagner. The Owls are ranked a respectable 59th in total offense and the Owls have gone over the total in 17 of their last 23 games after consecutive ATS losses while Southern Mississippi falls into a great over situation. Here, we play the over where the total is between 56.5 and 63 involving teams after gaining 450 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 24-5 (82.8 percent) the last 10 seasons. Look for this one to fly over the number as the Golden Eagles snap their six-game under run. 10* Over (175) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(176) Rice Owls |
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11-14-15 | Maryland v. Michigan State -14.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on MICHIGAN ST. for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Michigan St. got hosed by the referees last week at Nebraska which was unfortunate as the Spartans were rolling along and had a legitimate shot as making the College Football Playoff should it have gone into Ohio St. undefeated and pulled off the upset. The season is far from done however and a team like the Spartans can only be extremely motivated after the debacle from last week. That puts them in a great spot this week and because of that alone with the inability to cover the majority of their games this season, they are getting exceptional line value here. Maryland has lost six straight games and with the loss against Wisconsin last week, the Terrapins have seven losses so there will be no bowl game in their future and that is a big deal going forward as there is not much to play for at this point. They have lost six straight games but because they have covered four in a row, this number is lower than it should be based on the situation. The number has come down a field goal since opening as of Wednesday afternoon and we can take advantage of waiting this one out. The Spartans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after playing their last game on the road and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game under head coach Mark Dantonio. 10* (134) Michigan St. Spartans |
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11-13-15 | USC v. Colorado +16.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
Despite two straight losses, Colorado still remains in the postseason hunt as it has six losses so it must win out in its 13-game slate to become bowl eligible. While winning the last three games may seem like a stretch, the fact of the matter is that the Buffaloes are mathematically alive so there is plenty of motivation Friday night. They were hammered at home last week against Stanford while getting 14.5 points and here they are getting more points against a team that is not as good as the Cardinal. Additionally, Colorado is the first team playing its final home game of the season and laying in the national TV spotlight adds to it. USC has been playing well and is still alive for the PAC 12 South thanks to three straight wins but this is not an ideal spot for a blowout win. The Trojans last two games are against Oregon, which they have not faced since 2012, and rival UCLA, which they will be out for revenge after last season's 38-20 loss. Colorado has not fared well in this series since joining the PAC 12 but this is the best Buffaloes team that has faced the Trojans so being competitive should not be an issue. Bouncing back from last week's loss should happen as Colorado is 4-0 ATS I its last four games after putting up 275 or fewer yards last games while USC is just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following a win. 10* (116) Colorado Buffaloes |
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11-13-15 | Hornets v. Bulls -6.5 | Top | 97-102 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
We have some early season revenge in play tonight with the Bulls as they will be out to avenge a 25-point loss in Charlotte on November 3rd. It has been a very average start to the season for Chicago as it has gone just 3-3 since 2-0 start, the last time it has won consecutive games. The Bulls are coming off a win over the Knicks in their last game which was back on Monday so they have had a good deal of time off to get ready here. Charlotte is also coming off a win over the Knicks in its last game which was a game is really should have lost as a last second three-pointer from New York was overturned even though one of the scoreboards showed there being time remaining. The Hornets have won two straight games and four of their last five games after a 0-3 start but this is not the ideal spot to keep the run going. They have failed to cover both games this season when getting six or more points and going back, they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a victory. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record while going 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games revenging a loss of 10 points or more. Chicago gets its revenge in a big way tonight. 10* (716) Chicago Bulls |
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11-13-15 | San Diego v. USC -11.5 | Top | 45-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
It was another tough season for USC last year as the Trojans went just 12-20 including 3-15 in the Pac 12 but they should have the biggest turnaround of any team in a the very competitive conference. Injuries derailed USC last season but now the team is healthy and it brings back its entire nine-man rotation while bringing in highly touted big men Chimezie Metu and Bennie Boatwright. Even though they were beat up last year, nine of USC's 20 losses last season were either by five points or less or in overtime. San Diego is coming off a decent 15-16 season but this team is basically starting from scratch. New head coach Lamont Smith returns to him alma mater with very little as he inherits just two returning starters, neither of which were very productive. Jito Kok and Duda Sanadze averaged just 5.1 ppg and 6.6 ppg respectively so there is very little returning scoring. Gone are Johnny Dee (2,046 points) and Christopher Anderson (757 assists) which finished their four year careers as San Diego's all time leaders in career points and assists respectively. This season's USC roster will feature players with 209 starts compared to just 52 last season and this experience will carry the Trojans to a big season opening win tonight. 10* (756) USC Trojans |
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11-12-15 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
Rex Ryan returns to New York to face his former team for the first time and it should be a circus. While both offenses have been pretty steady of late, the defenses have been a real disappointment. The Jets allowed more than 20 points just once in their first five games but have allowed 29 ppg over their last three games. On the other side, Buffalo gave up 14 or fewer points in three of its first five games, it has allowed 28.3 ppg over its last three games. Both defenses are better than these recent forms and I expect both to pick it up on Thursday night. Because of the recent defensive struggles, the Bills have gone over the total in three straight games while the Jets have gone over the total in four straight games so we get the value that comes with that. Both teams fall into great low scoring situations. For Buffalo, we play the under involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are coming off a home win against a division rival. This situation is 52-21 (71.2 percent) to the under the last five seasons. For the Jets, we play the under involving teams after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents. This situation is 62-26 (70.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 11-5 in the Bills last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the under is 16-4 in the Jets last 20 games after allowing seven or more yppl in their previous game. 10* Under (109) Buffalo Bills/(110) New York Jets |
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11-12-15 | Jazz v. Heat OVER 182 | Top | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
After opening the season with an over against Charlotte, Miami has now gone under the total in its last seven games as the defense has been lights out over that stretch. Because of this, the totals have to be adjusted based on the opponent and tonight sees the lowest over/under that Miami has seen this season. Additionally, this is the first total for the Heat that has been in the 180's and it is on the low end for that matter and going back, Miami is 17-4 to the over in its last 21 home games where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. Utah is coming off a high scoring game in Cleveland to post just its second over of the season and that one also happened to be in the 180's. Utah is also playing solid defense but the key number here is the offensive shooting percentages which are a combined 89 percent. Utah is 4-0 to the over in its last four road games against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or better while the over is 7-1 in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Miami falls into a great situation for a high-scoring game as we play the over involving teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points that are outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more. This situation is 169-109 (60.8 percent) to the over since 1996. 10* Over (501) Utah Jazz/(502) Miami Heat |
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11-12-15 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech -3.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 30 m | Show |
It has been a disappointing season for Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech but definitely more so for that latter. The Yellow Jackets came into the season ranked in the preseason top 20 and got up to No. 14 before losing to Notre Dame in the third game and it was all downhill from there. That started a string of five straight losses and they actually outgained the opponent in three of those. Four of six losses have been by just one possession and there is no room for error as Georgia Tech has to win out to become bowl eligible and keep its streak of 18 consecutive bowl games going. Georgia Tech has scored 20+ points in 19 consecutive ACC games dating back to 2013, the longest active streak in the ACC. Virginia Tech is 4-5 and can afford only one loss to remain bowl eligible for a 23rd straight year. The Hokies are coming off a win over Boston College but they have not won consecutive FBS regular season games since the middle of last season, going 0-4 in its last four games. While getting an extra week to prepare for the Yellow Jackets offense may seem like a benefit, the Yellow Jackets are 8-3 in their 11 games against teams that have more than a week to prepare. The Hokies are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while the Yellow Jackets are 17-8-2 ATS against teams with a losing record. 10* (112) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
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11-12-15 | Blues v. Rangers -116 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
The Rangers, which finished with the most points in the Eastern Conference last season, are again near the top of the standings as their 24 points are second to Montreal's 28 points. They have won six straight games and while most of those have come against below average teams, New York has still held its own against the elite teams as it has won four straight games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better. St. Louis trails Dallas by just one point in the Western Conference and this game represents the final game of a four-game roadtrip. The Blues have won the previous three games with the most recent two being shutouts so while playing great, this puts them in a difficult situation against a team with an even better defense. The Rangers are 13-4 in their last 17 games against teams allowing 2.4 gpg and they fall into a solid situation where we play on favorites coming off a win against a division rival going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive road wins. This situation is 37-7 (84.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, we play against road underdogs of +100 to +150 after allowing one goal or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three goals or more in two straight games. This situation is 32-6 (84.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (4) New York Rangers |
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11-11-15 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +7 | Top | 100-84 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Golden St. has started right where it left off from last season as it has rolled to an 8-0 start to be the lone remaining undefeated team in the NBA. The Warriors haven't exactly played the most elite schedule as it is ranked 22nd in the NBA and while it is hard to overlook the fact of winning, lines are getting overadjusted. This is the perfect example of that as Golden St. was favored over Memphis at home nine days ago by nine points and now it is favored on the road over the Grizzlies by seven points and that adjustment is not correct. Memphis lost that game by a whopping 50 points so it is safe to say there will be some payback in mind for tonight. It goes back even further as last season, after taking a 2-1 in the Conference Semifinals, Memphis dropped the final three games of the series all by 13 or more points as Golden St. turned it up a notch. The Grizzlies are off to a 3-5 start this season but their schedule has been very tough as it is ranked third in the league with six of the first eight games taking place on the road and this is the first home game since Halloween following a five-game roadtrip. The Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while the Grizzlies are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (714) Memphis Grizzlies |
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11-11-15 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo +6 | Top | 41-30 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 23 m | Show |
Northern Illinois continued its recent dominance over Toledo as it defeated the Rockets last Tuesday to hand them their first loss of the season. It was a big win for the Huskies to keep their MAC West hopes alive and speaking of big wins, it was their first quality win of the season as the first four FBS wins came against teams a combined 9-30. Hitting the road for a second straight game will be a difficult challenge and on top of that, the Huskies paid a price with that victory however as quarterback Drew Hare was lost for the season and while Ryan Graham looked good in relief as he rallied his team to the victory, it is still a big step down. Buffalo is having a solid season at 5-4 including 3-2 in the MAC and while taking out Bowling Green in the MAC East is next to impossible, the goal now is to grab that sixth victory to become bowl eligible. The Bulls are just 2-2 at home but one loss came against Nevada by three points despite outgaining the Wolf Pack by 108 yards as turnovers did them in while the other loss came against aforementioned Bowling Green by just six points. While there have been decent Buffalo teams in the past, this is one of the better ones and once of the most vulnerable Northern Illinois teams so Buffalo has a great chance at breaking its seven-game losing streak against the Huskies since joining the MAC in 1999. 10* (108) Buffalo Bulls |
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11-10-15 | Toledo v. Central Michigan +4.5 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
With Northern Illinois defeating Toledo last week, it brought a lot of teams from the MAC West right back into the mix. The Rockets had won their four previous MAC games but they were fortunate to have a very soft front end of the schedule as those first four games were against teams currently sitting at 8-30. Now, counting last week, the final four conference games are against teams that have no more than one conference loss and are a combined 24-12. Central Michigan is one of those teams that has a shot at the division as it is 4-1 and the final two games after this are against Kent St. and Eastern Michigan, a combined 4-15. The lone conference loss cam by just two points at Western Michigan, which tops the West at 5-0 but has a tough game tomorrow against 5-0 Bowling Green so a loss there can make it a bigger logjam. There is plenty of motivation for the Chippewas as they have lost five straight meetings in this series by double-digits but this is the best Central Michigan team over that stretch as two losses have come by three points or less and another came by just 13 points against 9-0 Oklahoma St. The Chippewas fall into a potent situation where we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (102) Central Michigan Chippewas |
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11-10-15 | Knicks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 111-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
After starting the season with a perfect 5-0 record, Toronto has dropped its last two games but now comes the perfect opportunity to get back into the win column. A loss in Orlando on Friday was followed up by a 20-point loss in Miami as the offense managed just 76 points so we can expect to see a big turnaround tonight. There is value here as well because of the losing skid as last season, the Raptors were favored by 12 and 12.5 points in the two home meetings. The fact that New York already has three wins is also playing a role in the spread but this is a spot the Knicks should not be looking forward to. They are coming off a win on Sunday against the Lakers which snapped a three-game losing streak and while the defense has been surprisingly solid, the offense continues to struggle and that does not bode well here facing one of the best defenses in the league this season and last season. Toronto has a great league-wide situation on its side as we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Toronto is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games after scoring 90 points or fewer in two straight games while the Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win. 10* (508) Toronto Raptors |
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11-10-15 | Flames v. Panthers -140 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
It has been disappointing season's for both Calgary and Florida as each team came into the season with some lofty expectations. The Flames made the playoffs last season and were expected to make a bigger run this year although the season is far from over. The Panthers meanwhile fell short of the playoffs but a strong second half built some positive offseason momentum. They are back home following a three-game west coast roadtrip where they failed to come away with a win and now the losing streak has reached five games following a 5-4 start to the season. Calgary meanwhile has won two games in a row but both of those were at home and it comes into Florida having dropped four of its last five games on the highway. Florida's Roberto Luongo is 12-3-3 with a 1.85 GAA in his last 18 starts against Calgary. He's allowed two goals or fewer in 14 of those games. On the other side, Karri Ramo has been solid the last two games but on the season, he has a below average 3.53 GSAA and .889 save percentage. Here, we play against road teams against the money line that are coming off two or more consecutive home wins going up against an opponent coming off two or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 47-22 (68.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Panthers are 20-7 in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while the Flames are 2-10 in their last 12 road games. 9* (10) Florida Panthers |
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11-09-15 | Bears v. Chargers OVER 49 | Top | 22-19 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
A great matchup on paper a few weeks ago has turned into which team can finally win their third game of the season. The point spread seems to be right on with the Chargers about two points better and then another two points added for home field which is one of the weakest in the league. With not a lot of pressure on either side, we should see both offenses slinging it around and having success in doing so. The Bears will be without Matt Forte so rookie running back Jeremy Langford will make his first career start and he should find holes against a Chargers defense that's allowing 124.6 ypg on the ground, the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. Getting him going will help out Jay Cutler who has been solid since returning from a hamstring injury. On the other side, Philip Rivers is having a great season and that should continue here despite the loss of Keenan Allen as the Bears secondary is a mess. Rivers has thrown for over 300 yards in six of his eight games this season and while the Bears are fourth in the NFL in pass defense, but have surrendered 16 passing touchdowns which is tied for fourth-most in the league. The over is 8-2 in the Bears last 10 road games against teams with a losing home record while the over is 4-0 in the Chargers last four games against teams with a losing record. Both teams fall into the same situation as we play the over involving teams with a poor rushing defense, allowing 4.5 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in four straight games. This situation is 55-26 (67.9 percent) to the over since 1983. 10* Over (473) Chicago Bears/(474) San Diego Chargers |
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11-08-15 | Raptors v. Heat OVER 190.5 | Top | 76-96 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Miami and Indiana stayed below the total for us on Friday as we missed the over thanks to a dismal 79-point second half. That is done with and now we are set with a better matchup and an even better number to work with. This is by far the lowest total the Heats have seen this season and a big reason for that is the fact that they have gone under the total in five straight games after opening the season with an over against Charlotte. After opening the season by surpassing the century mark in its first five games, Toronto was held to just 87 points on Friday to suffer its first loss of the season. The defense has been excellent for the Raptors, as was the case last season, but now they go up against a Heat team that is shooting 46.3 percent on the season, good for sixth best in the NBA. Like Miami, Toronto has been on an under run, going below the total in four straight games and similarly to the Heat, this is the lowest total the Raptors have seen as well. Toronto is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points while Miami has gone over the total in seven of its last 10 games following a loss. 10* Over (505) Toronto Raptors/(506) Miami Heat |
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11-08-15 | Broncos v. Colts +5.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 52 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on INDIANAPOLIS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Colts came through for us last Monday night as a big fourth quarter forced overtime but they just fell short. Indianapolis fell to 3-5 on the season and is now tied with Houston for first place in the AFC South so each game is getting bigger and bigger at this point. A shakeup was needed and it came this week as Rob Chudzinski is taking over the playcalling after offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was fired and this is a great situation for the Colts because of this. New wrinkles will be put in place and Denver is at the disadvantage of not being able to review film as things will be different. The Broncos remained undefeated with a big win last Sunday over previously undefeated Green Bay as they dominated the Packers which provides us with a great spot to go against them. The Colts are 9-2 in their last 11 home games against teams completing 61 percent or better of their passes while the Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS victory. Additionally, we play against favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is a revenge game for the Broncos from the playoff loss from last January but we are not an advocate of road revenge and it won't come into play here. 10* (470) Indianapolis Colts |
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11-08-15 | Stars v. Red Wings +100 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Detroit has won three straight games and looks to make it a season-high four games in a row against the top team from the Western Conference. The Red Wings snapped a three-game home skid with a victory over Tampa Bay on Tuesday with that victory being sandwiched around two road wins. The Stars remain the top team in the Western Conference and the best offense in the conference as they are averaging 3.56 gpg but Detroit will get a big player back as defenseman Mike Green will return today after missing the last six games with a shoulder injury. Slowing down the Dallas offense is vital and the Red Wings have been solid on that side as they have allowed just one goal in each of their last two games. Captain Henrik Zetterberg, who scored his 300th goal Friday, has six goals and 10 assists while helping Detroit go 9-1-1 in its last 11 in the series. Detroit falls into a great situation as we play on home teams against the money line that are coming off a win against a division rival going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive road wins. This situation is 38-10 (79.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (2) Detroit Red Wings |
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11-08-15 | Packers -2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 29-37 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on GREEN BAY for our NFC Game of the Month. Green Bay may be a surprising road favorite here to some, but it is the right side and frankly, the Packers should be favored by more. This week we have heard that the Packers are reeling right now and are a team that is ready for a freefall and not even a top ten team. Well, those declarations are all wrong and catching Green Bay in this spot after the effort last week is a huge edge. The Packers were awful last week in Denver against the best defense in the NFL but they have been a great bounceback team. Under Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are 18-5 ATS off a loss and under head coach Mike McCarthy, they are 8-1 ATS in nine road games after scoring 14 points or less last game. Additionally, Green Bay is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games following a game on the road the last tow years. Carolina is one of four remaining undefeated teams in the NFL and arguably the worst of the bunch. The Panthers have not outgained a single opponent by more than 51 total yards through seven games and overall, they are outgaining opponents by just 6.5 ypg. Granted, the Packers are getting outgained overall but that was due to the thrashing that was put upon them last week. They fall into a great situation where we play on road favorites that are coming off a road loss, in November games. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (463) Green Bay Packers |
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11-08-15 | Redskins +14 v. Patriots | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on WASHINGTON for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The public is all over the Patriots once again which comes as no surprise as they moved to 7-0 following a blowout win over Miami last Thursday night. But now the lines are going to really get overinflated and we are seeing that here. New England looks like the team from 2007 that went undefeated as in losing does not seen to be an option at this point but the Patriots have not been as dominant as that team. Only three of the seven wins have been by double-digits where back in 2007, the first eight wins were all by double-digits. The Redskins are getting six more points than the Dolphins were getting which is too big of an adjustment. New England has had some extra time for this one which is always an edge but Washington is coming off its bye week so it has had more time to rest, recuperate and prepare. The Redskins are now 3-4 following a win over Tampa Bay in which they came back from a 24-0 deficit and that should provide them with a ton of confidence. Getting two touchdowns in this league is way too much unless you are a bottom feeder and the Patriots have had their share of issues as they have gone 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games when favored by -13 or more points. Additionally, we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (461) Washington Redskins |
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11-08-15 | Rams +2 v. Vikings | Top | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the RAMS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Vikings pulled off another big win last week in Chicago as two big pass plays set up the game-tying touchdown and game-winning field goal. They have won five of their last games following a season opening loss in San Francisco and Minnesota has covered every game since then as well. This is the start of six games against potential playoff teams, all of which have winning records, and this is a tough spot here as Minnesota has yet to defeat a team with a winning record. The Rams have won two in a row and at 4-3, they are just a game and a half behind Arizona in the NFC West. The possess two impressive wins over Seattle and Arizona and with Todd Gurley in the lineup, this offense has turned things around quickly. Defensively, they are one of the best in pressuring the quarterback and they match up very well here. The Rams have quality depth all along the defensive line and are tied for second in the league with 23 sacks. Their best chances of slowing Adrian Peterson will come from their tackles disrupting the Vikings at the point of attack. They fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 137-83 ATS (62.3 percent) since 1983. Head coach Jeff Fisher has especially been great in similar spots as his teams are 11-2 ATS in road games after allowing nine points or less last game. 10* (455) St. Louis Rams |
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11-08-15 | Raiders v. Steelers OVER 47.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 49 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the RAIDERS/STEELERS OVER for our Total of the Week. The Steelers are coming off a brutal loss last week against the Bengals as two late interceptions led to Cincinnati pulling away at the end. Pittsburgh fell to 4-4 and is now four games behind the Bengals in the AFC North. The offense that was expected to be one of the most explosive in the NFL has been anything but that, averaging just 21 ppg. Obviously, the absence of Ben Roethlisberger had a lot to do with that but now that he is back, the offense should start clicking again. The loss of Le'Veon Bell is a huge one but we should see more of the passing game and with the Steelers staying below the total for the last six games, we are playing with a lot of value here. The Raiders come in with a 4-3 record after two straight wins as the offense has put up 37 and 34 points and that was the fourth time this season Oakland has scored 27 or more points. They have gone over in five of seven games which is offsetting some of the value but with the playmakers on the Raiders offense starting to really click, this has the potential to be the highest scoring game of the weekend. Going back to the Bell absence, when DeAngelo Williams played in the two games during his suspension, the Steelers scored 64 points so the potential is definitely still there. Pittsburgh is 17-5 to the over in its last 22 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games while Oakland is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games in the second half of the season. 10* Over (451) Oakland Raiders/(452) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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11-07-15 | California v. Oregon OVER 75.5 | Top | 28-44 | Loss | -106 | 55 h 40 m | Show |
While we are playing the over in the game with the lowest posted total of the day, we are also playing the over in the game with the third highest total of the day. We played the over in the California/USC game last week and the Golden Bears could not get an offensive rhythm going as the Trojans controlled the time of possession. That won't be the case this week as Oregon does not have close to the same defense as USC. The Ducks are ranked 116th in the nation in total defense and they allow 38.4 ppg which is 117th in the country. California's offense should wake up here after scoring 24 points or less the last three games, a number they surpassed in all five of their first games. While Oregon is struggling with a 5-3 record, the offense is still dynamic and is ranked 12th in total offense and 10th in scoring offense. Here, we play the over involving teams where the total is 70 points or higher coming off a win as an underdog from Week Ten on. The over is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last ten seasons. Additionally, Oregon is 7-0 to the over in its last seven home games following a Thursday game. 10* Over (401) California Golden Bears/(402) Oregon Ducks |
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11-07-15 | Wizards +4 v. Hawks | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Washington saw its three-game winning streak come to an end last night in Boston as the Wizards were crushed by 20 points. We expected a big effort from the Celtics and got it but now Washington turns its attention to the team that once again has the best record in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta was the surprise of the NBA last season and the Hawks are starting right where they left off as they are off to a 6-1 start which includes wins in six straight games following a season opening loss to Detroit. The Wizards should have some added motivation tonight as it was the Hawks that eliminated them from the playoffs a season ago, a 4-2 series loss in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. This is not a great spot for the Hawks as well as this is their fourth game in five nights so fatigue can always come into play. Going back, the Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record while the Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Atlanta is the biggest public consensus on the NBA board for today and we go against that here. 10* (705) Washington Wizards |
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11-07-15 | Old Dominion +10 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 12 m | Show |
Well, we have gotten burned by Old Dominion for the last three weeks and we are not going to get off the Monarchs as they are more than due for a cover as they are off to a 0-8 ATS start although some may have pushed last week against Western Kentucky. Going against the Hilltoppers proved to be a bad call as they are 5-0 in the conference but now Old Dominion faces a team with a worst record yet is getting a double-digit line. Texas-San Antonio is 1-3 in the conference and 1-7 overall with the only win coming against UTEP. The Roadrunners are coming off a loss against previously winless North Texas so this team is much worse off as their hopes of a bowl game are now shot. While Old Dominion has struggled against the number, it is still within reach of the postseason at 3-5 so motivation is still there. The Monarchs have a solid situation on their side as well as we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss as a road favorite of 7 or more points, after Week Ten of the season. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) since 1992. Additionally, the Roadrunners are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following one or more consecutive losses while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 200 or more ypg. 10* (403) Old Dominion Monarchs |
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11-07-15 | UCLA v. Oregon State +18 | Top | 41-0 | Loss | -106 | 49 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on OREGON ST. for our Saturday Ultimate Underdog. I'm not sure what the Bruins have done to be laying this kind of road lumber but we will take advantage of this inflated line. UCLA has won two straight games following a two-game losing streak and while it is 3-2 in the Pac 12, the Bruins have been outgained overall in doing so. They struggled with Colorado at home last weekend as they won by just four points while getting outgained by 154 total yards. The Beavers have struggles this season as they are 0-5 in the conference but they have definitely played better at home than on the road. They lost to the same Colorado team by just four points but unlike the Bruins, they won the yardage battle by 73 yards. In the only other home game, Oregon St. lost to Stanford and was actually getting less points there than it is this Saturday. The Beavers have struggled on offense but they face an injury riddled defense and UCLA will continue to have trouble stopping the run against an adept zone-read team in Oregon St. Defensive coordinator Tom Bradley admitted that the personnel issues have limited what they wanted to do from a strategic standpoint. Oregon St. falls into a great situation where we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the second half of the season that are coming off one or more straight overs, that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (386) Oregon St. Beavers |
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11-07-15 | TCU v. Oklahoma State +5.5 | Top | 29-49 | Win | 100 | 54 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on OKLAHOMA ST. for our November Underdog Game of the Month. The Big XII got the biggest shaft after the first edition of the college Football Playoff Poll as all three undefeated teams are ranked lower than their AP and USA Today rankings including both teams in this matchup. Not a lot should be read into this as the meat of the schedule is still to come and this is the first of many big games in November. TCU has been near the top of the rankings all season and has played very well although it has struggled on a few occasions. The Horned Frogs have played four road games and won three of those by a touchdown or less, with a game at Iowa St. being the exception. They failed to cover the two games as a single-digit road favorite and they will have their hands full here. Oklahoma St. is also 8-0 and it too has also won a handful of close games. The Cowboys have scored 128 points in its last two games, piling up 1,245 total yards, including 859 yards through the air. They fell down 24-0 last Saturday at Texas Tech and trailed early in the fourth quarter yet still won 70-53. TCU sent Oklahoma St. on a five-game losing streak with a 42-9 win in Fort Worth last season so there will revenge in play as well. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 48-17 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (384) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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11-07-15 | Florida State +12 v. Clemson | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 48 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on FLORIDA ST. for our Saturday Enforcer. Clemson is coming off another offensive explosion last week against NC State to remain undefeated and we missed the cover on the Wolfpack no thanks to a late Tigers field goal. Now the Tigers come in with the bulls-eye on their backs as they are ranked No. 1 in the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings and of course, they are paying the price for it. This is no doubt an excellent football team and deserves to be where it is but is there a 21-point difference between these two teams from last season to this season? The Tigers were close to double-digit underdogs a season ago and now they are double-digit favorites and something says that the Seminoles will have something to say about that. Florida St. recovered from its heartbreaking defeat to Georgia Tech on a blocked field goal return at the end of the game as it destroyed Syracuse last week, preventing any chance of a letdown or a possible lookahead. The loss to the Yellow Jackets snapped a 28-game ACC Winning streak but this team is still equipped to win big games. The Seminoles have not allowed more than 24 points this season and while this will be the most diverse offense they have faced, the Clemson offense will have its hands full. The Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 yards on offense in their previous game and while the home field is a big edge here, Florida St. keeps this one close. 10* (387) Florida St. Seminoles |
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11-07-15 | Iowa v. Indiana +7 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -107 | 48 h 43 m | Show |
The most overrated team in the first College Football Playoff rankings arguably is Iowa. Yes, the Hawkeyes are an impressive 8-0 on the season but how impressive is it really? They did have an impressive win over Northwestern on the road but the Wildcats were just coming off a tough loss against Michigan. Iowa also defeated Wisconsin on the road but was outgained while doing so by 99 yards. The rest of the schedule has been tame at best and the rest of the schedule is far from tough as Iowa has been fortunate this season to miss Ohio St., Michigan St., Penn St. and Michigan, the top four teams in the Big Ten East Division. Indiana comes in with a 4-4 record, all four of those losses being within the conference and all coming in the last four games. This is keeping the public off the Hoosiers this week but we are backing the home underdog here. Indiana nearly shocked Ohio St. at home and the other conference home game resulted in a three-point loss against Rutgers despite winning the yardage battle. Indiana has had two weeks to prepare for this revenge battle which brings up a great situation when facing undefeated teams. Going back, Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game while going 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (338) Indiana Hoosiers |
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11-07-15 | Arizona State +3 v. Washington State | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
Washington St. is coming off a heartbreaking loss against Stanford as the Cougars had a late lead but allowed a field goal with less than two minutes remaining and could not get the lead back, eventually falling by two points as they missed a last second field goal. That is a loss that will be extremely tough to recover from and while Washington St. is one win away from bowl eligibility, the desperation on the other side is greater. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak but the Cougars still got the cover which was their fifth straight cover and that is adding value in this line the other way. Arizona St. lost late last Thursday night against Oregon in triple overtime which dropped the Sun Devils to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the Pac 12. Now with the Pac 12 South Division out of reach, the goal is to make it to a fourth straight bowl games under head coach Todd Graham. While it was a tough loss to take for the Sun Devils, they outgained the Ducks by 241 total yards as the offense remains powerful. It has an ample number of playmakers and the defense is relentless in its backfield pursuit, leading the Pac 12 in sacks and tackles for loss. Washington St. is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games against teams allowing 250 or more passing ypg while going just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games. 10* (415) Arizona St. Sun Devils |
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11-07-15 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss OVER 54 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 48 h 40 m | Show |
The third over we are going with is a middle of the road number that is going against a recent team trend. After opening the season with three straight overs, Mississippi has gone under the total in its last six games. The defense has led the way but now the defense faces the best offense it has seen since facing Memphis where the Rebels allowed 37 points. Arkansas has gotten its offense in gear the last two games and now comes in ranked 33rd in the country in total offense and 50th in scoring offense. The Razorbacks defense has been gashed for 30.7 ppg over the last six games and while the Mississippi point totals have been average of late, which is a main reason for the under run, but on the season, the Rebels are averaging 519.6 ypg which is 11th highest in the nation. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as well as Mississippi was shutout in Arkansas last season 30-0 so they will have a lot to prove. The Rebels control their own destiny in the SEC West so they will be ready. Arkansas is 21-9 to the over in its last 30 road November games. 10* Over (409) Arkansas Razorbacks/(410) Mississippi Rebels |
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11-07-15 | Vanderbilt v. Florida OVER 36 | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -109 | 44 h 11 m | Show |
This is the lowest total on the board for Saturday and we will take advantage of the number that the linesmakers were forced to post. The Commodores have failed to go above the total in any game this season and while they are coming off a game where they were shutout, that makes this a good spot for the offense to do at least a little something. This is the lowest total Florida has seen this season and it too has been on an under run, going below the total in three of its last four games. While the Gators will be facing a strong Vanderbilt defense, they are averaging 31 ppg this season and last week, the Commodores allowed a season-high 34 points against Houston. Despite the midseason quarterback change as a result of Will Grier's suspension for testing positive for a substance banned by the NCAA, the Gators quickly stabilized when Treon Harris took over. Of his 44 completions, 12 have gone for 20 or more yards (27.3 percent) and his big play ability is good for the offense. Florida has gone over the total in eight of its last 11 home games while going 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games after allowing 20 points or fewer. 10* Over (341) Vanderbilt Commodores/(342) Florida Gators |
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11-06-15 | Heat v. Pacers OVER 196.5 | Top | 87-90 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Both Miami and Indiana are off to average starts this season and both have been involved in some very low scoring games this season. I think that changes tonight as we are bucking that trend and going with the value play in what looks to be a high scoring game. The Heat opened the season with an over against Charlotte but since then, they have stayed under the total in four straight games with none of those really coming close to going over. The Pacers meanwhile are off to a similar start where they went over in their first two games but have stayed under the total in their last three games and like Miami, none have been close to surpassing the number. The contrarian approach tonight is to see both streaks broken. From a pace standpoint, both teams are averaging more possessions per game than they did last season so we should see an uptempo style in this matchup. Indiana is 50-32 to the over in its last 82 games when the total is between 190 and 199.5 and 8-3 to the over in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the over is 5-2 in Miami's last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* Over (511) Miami Heat/(512) Indiana Pacers |
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11-06-15 | Hawks v. Pelicans +3 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
After making a playoff run last season, expectations were high in New Orleans but so far, not so good. The Pelicans are off to a 0-4 start to the season and they have failed to cover any game, losing each by a minimum of nine points. Along with the Lakers, they are the only winless team in the Western Conference and that is a distinction they need to avoid. The Hawks meanwhile opened the season with a loss to Detroit but have bounced back with five consecutive wins. All of those have been against average to below average Eastern Conference teams however as the schedule is ranked 26th in the NBA while New Orleans has played the toughest schedule thus far. Going back, the Pelicans are 0-8 in their last eight games but six of those losses have come against Golden St. New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games against teams outscoring opponents by three or more ppg while going 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 18-39 ATS in its last 57 games against teams shooting 41 percent or worse. The streak ends tonight for New Orleans. 10* (514) New Orleans Pelicans |
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11-06-15 | Temple v. SMU OVER 54.5 | Top | 60-40 | Win | 100 | 57 h 41 m | Show |
Temple is coming off a very tough loss at home last Saturday night and that can lead to a letdown here. When teams fall into this situation, it tends to affect the defense more which I expect to happen here. Saturday night marked the first game Temple played in which both teams were ranked which also provides quite the letdown. The good news for the Owls is that they are facing a horrible team and the offense that has struggled the last couple games should be able to score at will. While the defense will not completely collapse, all we should need is a couple SMU scores to push this one over. The Mustangs have lost six straight games with the defense being the big culprit as they have allowed point totals of 56, 48, 49, 49, 38 and 40 points. Overall, SMU is ranked 120th in total defense and 123rd in scoring defense while Temple comes in 58th in scoring offense. Another factor that helps here is the pace of the game as the Mustangs have run 608 plays in just eight games and the 76 plays per game on offense are good for 29th most in the nation. The solidifier is the fact that each team has gone under the total in their last two games and that is providing some value. Temple is 10-1 to the over in its last 11 road games after allowing 6.75 yppl or more in their previous game while SMU is 6-0 to the over in its last six games coming off a home conference loss. 10* Over (319) Temple Owls/(320) SMU Mustangs |
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11-06-15 | Wizards v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Washington is coming off a last second upset victory at home over San Antonio on Wednesday which was its first home win of the season after getting upset by New York. The Wizards are 2-0 on the road but are facing a desperate team tonight and are not in an ideal situation. Boston opened the season with a victory against Philadelphia, which of course is not saying much, but has since lost three straight games including a two-point loss at Indiana on Wednesday. The Celtics have failed to cover any of those games but that changes tonight. They fall into a solid situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 59-28 ATS (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing home record and 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games after a win by six points or less. 10* (506) Boston Celtics |
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11-06-15 | Stars v. Hurricanes +120 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
There are five home underdogs on the six-game Friday card and Carolina looks to be in the best position of them all. The Hurricanes had their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with a 4-3 home loss against Tampa Bay. They have had a solid period of time off which should have them amped up tonight to get back onto the ice. Dallas won in Boston on Tuesday and the Stars remain one of the bigger surprises in the league thus far as they are 10-3 which is good for the top spot in the Western Conference thus far. They are doing it with offense as they lead the conference in scoring and power play percentage but will be tested here against a solid defensive team. Here, we play against road favorites of -200 or less against the money line off a road win by two goals or more, in November games. This situation is 65-43 (60.2 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Carolina is 5-0 against the money line against teams allowing an average of 29.5 or more shots per game this season while going 9-4 in its last 13 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile, the Stars are 1-4 in their last five road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (6) Carolina Hurricanes |
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11-05-15 | Mississippi State v. Missouri OVER 42 | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
Mississippi St. comes in a hefty road favorite in Missouri as it has rolled to three straight wins following a loss to Texas A&M while the tigers are riding a three games losing skid as the offense has been nowhere to be found. The Bulldogs hit the road for the first time in over a month but after scoring 45, 45 and 42 points their last three games, I expect that offense to keep chugging along despite playing a very tough defense in Missouri. The Tigers have gone under the total in all eight of their games this season thanks to a good defense and an offense that has shut down of late. They have scored just 12 points over their last three games but Missouri has faced three very strong defenses in those three games as the opposition was ranked 15th, 21st and 23rd while Mississippi St. comes in 53rd in total defense. That is a respectable ranking but the Bulldogs are far from dominant. We are getting a great number here to work with as this is about right on track with recent Missouri closing totals but this one is 10 points lower than the lowest over/under Mississippi St. has seen all season. That alone is worth the play here and the one team with the contrarian value, Missouri, is 9-1 to the over in its last 10 home games following a loss as a favorite while going 23-7 to the over in its last 30 games after two straight games of forcing one or fewer turnovers. It won't take a lot to push this one over the total. 10* Over (315) Mississippi St. Bulldogs/(316) Missouri Tigers |
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11-05-15 | Hornets v. Mavs -4 | Top | 108-94 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
After a 0-3 start, the Hornets won their first game of the season in blowout fashion as they rolled over the Bulls on Tuesday by 25 points in a game in which they led by as many as 35 points and also never trailed in. Two losses came against Atlanta while the other was at Miami so the schedule has not been in their favor but Charlotte comes into a tough one here. Dallas opened the season with three straight road games with the lone loss coming against the Clippers and in its home opener, the Raptors pulled away in the fourth quarter with an 11-point win. The Mavericks were good, but not great, at home last season but they still have a big edge here and we are getting a solid line to deal with. I know times change but the gap between these two teams has not narrowed as much as this line is telling us as since 2012, the Mavericks have been favored by 14, 10, 8 and 9.5 in the four home meetings and they won all of those games by more than they are favored by tonight. They have owned this series as the Mavericks have won 23 of the last 24 meetings including every one at home, 14 in a row. Look for Dallas to pull away here before a home-and-home series with New Orleans. 10* (706) Dallas Mavericks |
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11-05-15 | Browns +12 v. Bengals | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -125 | 35 h 34 m | Show |
It was made official this morning that Johnny Manziel will start for Cleveland Thursday night against the Bengals. While we pretty much knew that was coming anyone, it made no matter on who we were taking in this divisional rivalry. The Browns have struggled the last couple games against the Rams and Cardinals to fall to 2-6 overall as they will miss the playoffs yet again. Still, this is a big rivalry game and the Browns would love to be the team that hands the Bengals their first loss of the season. We thought that team was Pittsburgh last week and the Steelers were looking great until the fourth quarter as a pair of late Ben Roethlisberger interceptions did them in. The Bengals were outgained for the third time in four games including two straight so while the winning has been nice, it has not been dominating. Despite a perfect record, Cincinnati is outgaining opponents by just 25.4 ypg which is certainly not great. Still, the Bengals have covered all but one games this season and that was a push against the Seahawks in another miracle comeback. Even though this roster is filled with talent, it is still a team with many questions. The Browns fall into a simple yet very effective situation where we play on underdogs of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (305) Cleveland Browns |
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11-05-15 | Baylor v. Kansas State +17.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 35 h 40 m | Show |
Baylor may be playing with a chip on its shoulder after being picked No. 6 in the first edition of the College Football Playoff Top 25 despite being ranked second in both the AP and USA Today Polls. But despite rolling through everyone the Bears have played, I think the ranking makes sense considering the opposition they have faced. Obviously it is one game at a time and Baylor cannot afford to slip up however the fact it has Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and TCU on deck could provide a firm lookahead spot. Kansas St. is having a tough season as it is off to a 0-4 start in the Big XII and while the stats do not look good, the Wildcats have shown fight. They lost by just two points at Oklahoma St., seven points against TCU and the loss to Texas was by 14 points but a late touchdown by the Longhorns provided the winning margin. A home loss to Oklahoma was ugly but the Sooners were in a terrific spot there. Kansas St. will be out to avoid a third straight home loss for the first time since 2008. The Wildcats fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is the most points the Wildcats have seen at home since 2008 and look for a much closer than expected game here. 10* (308) Kansas St. Wildcats |
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11-05-15 | Ball State v. Western Michigan -14.5 | Top | 7-54 | Win | 100 | 35 h 40 m | Show |
With Toledo losing Tuesday night, Western Michigan is now in the drivers seat in the MAC West, sort of. The Broncos are 4-0 and while they control their own destiny, it is not going to be easy. They face Bowling Green, which was 4-0 going into Wednesday, and then close with consecutive road games at Northern Illinois and at Toledo so after Thursday, the combined record of the final three teams they face is 12-2. That means they cannot slip up here and with the way they are currently playing, that should be no concern. Ball St. is coming off a win on Halloween against Massachusetts which snapped a five-game losing streak. It was not a pretty win though as the Cardinals won by just 10 points against the 1-7 Minutemen and were outgained in doing so. Going back, Ball St. has been outgained in six straight games and that is not a good trend to possess. Additionally, the Cardinals are coming off the luxury of a three-game homestand so this marks their first road game in 26 days. Here, we play against road teams coming off a win over a conference rival as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 88-46 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being close to three touchdowns. The Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while Western Michigan has covered seven of its last eight games after scoring 37 or more points. 10* (314) Western Michigan Broncos |
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11-04-15 | Magic v. Rockets OVER 208 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Orlando and Houston are coming off their first wins of the season after 0-3 starts as the Magic won last night in New Orleans while the Rockets took care of Oklahoma City on Monday. The offense finally came to life for Houston against the Thunder as it went over the century mark for the first time this season but the defense remains a concern, as it is allowing 107.8 ppg. Despite this, all four of the Rockets games have stayed under the total and we are getting value now because of that. The Magic have now covered all four games this season and while it is tempting to go against that tonight, laying that number with the Houston defense does not seem logical. Orlando has gone under the total in three of four games including the last two games so it also fits into the contrarian situation here as well. The lone game that went over comes against a similar style team as the game with Oklahoma City easily eclipsed the total even before overtime came into play. Orlando is 31-13 to the over in its last 44 games against teams shooting 41 percent or worse while Houston is 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (511) Orlando Magic/(512) Houston Rockets |
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11-04-15 | Ohio +21 v. Bowling Green | Top | 24-62 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Bowling Green is playing at an exceptionally high level right now but you have to pay the price to bet them, a huge price. The Falcons have won five straight games, covering four of those, with the lone non-cover coming by just a point. They are in prime position to win the MAC East as they have a two-game cushion. If they beat Ohio, all they need is one more win or one more loss from whomever wins between Buffalo and Kent St. on Thursday. Bowling Green has outscored Massachusetts, Akron and Kent St. 169-48 in its last three games. Ohio was in the mix but has since dropped its last two games and neither were very pretty. The Bobcats are tied with aforementioned Buffalo and Kent St. at 2-2 so a win here is imperative to remain in the hunt. The good news is that for our purposes we are simply looking for a closer game than is expected with what is a very inflated line because of recent results. Stopping the Falcons high flying offense will be a challenge but the Bobcats are not being asked to stop it, just slow it down enough to make it a game. Ohio allows just 370.3 ypg which is 53rd in the nation. The Bobcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game while the Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (303) Ohio Bobcats |
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11-03-15 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo UNDER 61 | Top | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
When these two teams are brought up, the word shootout comes to mind and that has been the case recently for both. The Rockets have gone over the total in two straight games while the Huskies have gone over the total in three straight games. But when it comes to these two playing each other, it has been a lower scoring series with the under coming through in the last three meetings. Both teams do bring in highly potent offenses but they also come in with very underrated defenses and those are the units that should take greater control tonight. Toledo and Northern Illinois are ranked 51st and 52nd respectively in total defense and both the rushing and passing units are equally good. Offensively, they are not as similar but both want to be a run team and establishing the run will be the goal tonight. That is a clock eater and while both teams has been hitting with big plays, that likely will not happen tonight because of the strength of the defenses. Northern Illinois is 16-5 to the under in its last 21 games after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last three games while Toledo is 22-10 to the under against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. The situation and opponent also calls for a low scoring game as the under is 5-0 in the Huskies last five road games against teams with a winning home record and the under is 12-4 in the Rockets last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (301) Northern Illinois/(302) Toledo Rockets |
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11-03-15 | Pacers +5 v. Pistons | Top | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Looking at the records of Indiana and Detroit, you would think they should be reversed as the Pacers had higher expectations but they are sitting 0-3 while the Pistons are the undefeated team at 3-0. This is the best start for Detroit since 2008-09 and new head coach Stan Van Gundy certainly has a lot to do with that. Now after being underdogs in the first three games, the Pistons are now overpriced as favorites because of the records and what has happened inside the games. The Pacers have struggled no doubt but Detroit has been getting outplayed despite the wins as it has been outshot by 5.3 percent from the floor. Indiana is still trying to get used to a new system as it looks to bounce back from its worst loss thus far on Saturday against Utah. The Pacers haven't started 0-4 since losing their first nine games in 1988-89 and I do not see the losing streak lasting much longer. With Paul George being back as healthy as ever and the additions of Monta Ellis and Myles Turner gives Indiana a very positive outlook going into the season. Going back to last season, the Pacers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home and they fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on road teams that are coming off a loss as a favorite going up against an opponent coming off a win as a home underdog. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (705) Indiana Pacers |
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11-02-15 | Colts +7 v. Panthers | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The Colts have been a major disappointment this season as they come into tonight at 3-4 and a loss tonight puts them into a tie with Houston in what is currently the worst division in the league. Andrew Luck has been a big reason for that and it has been reported that he was playing with not only a bad shoulder but cracked ribs. It should not be a huge deal as this is not uncommon. The Panthers are off to a 6-0 start and while Denver was the most fraudulent perfect team prior to last night before the very impressive win, Carolina now holds that claim. The Panthers are outgaining opponents by just five ypg and while the defense is solid, the offense is not going to run away from anyone. Carolina can distance itself from Atlanta which lost its second game of the season yesterday but this is a big number for the Panthers to cover. Under Luck, the Colts have won 15 out of 16 games when coming off a straight up cover loss and they fall into a solid contrarian situation. We play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 14 or more ppg in the first half, after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 68-31 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Panthers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing their last game at home while the Colts are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (275) Indianapolis Colts |
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11-01-15 | Packers v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 58 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on DENVER for our SUNDAY NIGHT PRIMETIME. NBC could not have asked for a better matchup to face off against the World Series, there was no sweep, as a battle of undefeated teams square off in primetime. The Broncos and Packers are both coming off bye weeks and both have been extremely successful when playing with a week of rest so there is no edge either way. With what we have seen so far, Green Bay is the better team as a whole as the Broncos have hit a few problems along the way but have managed to escape defeat. Still, being the home underdog here is a bit surprising even though the offense is struggling as Denver has not been a home underdog since September of 2012. Defensively, Denver is the better team and that will be a big asset this week. Despite a perfect record, Green Bay has been outgained in three of their six wins and this is just its second road game since opening week. Here, we play on any team after a game where they committed three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 73-36 ATS (67 percent) since 1983. Denver is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg on the season while going 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a spread loss. 10* (274) Denver Broncos |
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11-01-15 | Royals v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
We are bound to see a low scoring game in this World Series as offense, or lack of defense, has been the theme thus far. All four game have gone over the total and while we were looking at the first possible under last night, that didn't happen due to a botched play in the eighth inning by the Mets. They now have their backs against the wall and will rely on Matt Harvey to try and extend their season. He was decent in Game One of this series but his command was clearly off and he believes that he should be sharper on Sunday. He repeatedly noted Saturday that he is pleased that this start will come on regular rest. He had an eight-day layoff before facing the Dodgers in Game Three of the National League Division Series and waited nine days to face Kansas City the first time around. On the other side, Edinson Volquez will get the ball for the Royals and he will certainly be pitching with a heavy heart. His father passed hours before Game One of the World Series, but Volquez didn't find out until after he had pitched six innings of three-run ball. Volquez said he is excited for Sunday, calling the Game Five start "a dream come true" and saying that he will be thinking about his mother when he takes the mound, which can bring out the best. The under is 6-1 in Volquez' last seven starts against teams with a winning record while the under is 37-18-1 in the Mets last 56 interleague home games against right-handed starters. 10* Under (909) Kansas City Royals/(910) New York Mets |
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11-01-15 | Bucks +7 v. Raptors | Top | 87-106 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
The Bucks were a pleasant surprise last season as they improved by 26 games from 2013-14 and made the playoffs as the sixth seed. While we won't see a similar improvement, Milwaukee has the ability to be better once again. The return of Jabari Parker from injury and the addition of Greg Monroe will improve the offense considerably which we have already seen the first tow game despite losses in both. The Bucks had the second-best defense in the entire NBA last year so the fact they have allowed 122 points and 118 points is shocking. It won't get easier tonight but we will definitely see an improvement. Toronto has won its first two games thanks to a pair of come-from-behind efforts. The Raptors are favored to win the Atlantic Division but that won't take much in the weakest division in the NBA. While the offense is solid, the defense remains a weakness and that could be a problem matchup here. There is not a huge difference or gap in power ratings here yet the line is telling us different and that is due to the records from both sides early in the season. Milwaukee is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road game where the total is between 200 and 209.5 while Toronto is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games coming off a road win by 10 points or more. 10* (705) Milwaukee Bucks |
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11-01-15 | Seahawks v. Cowboys +6 | Top | 13-12 | Win | 100 | 54 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on DALLAS for our SUNDAY ENFORCER. The Cowboys were the preseason pick from many to win the NFC East but when Tony Romo went down with a broken collarbone, all bets were off. Dallas somehow had to get through the stretch of his absence by keeping close to the top of the division and it is actually still there because of the mediocrity of the rest of the division. Dallas has gone 0-4 and while it is still in the mix, losing many more games will take a hit. A win here would be monumental and after outgaining the Giants by 171 total yards last week, a win is far from out of the question. The Seahawks looked like the Seahawks of old last week in San Francisco as the defense dominated the 49ers in a 20-3 victory, outgaining San Francisco by 246 total yards. It was a big road win and a big win in general to remain two games behind Arizona in the NFC West. However, that was the first road win in four chances this season as the highway continues to sit way below the home dominance. Dallas falls into a great situation where we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (272) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-01-15 | Bengals v. Steelers | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on PITTSBURGH for our AFC GAME OF THE WEEK. The return of Ben Roethlisberger could not have come at a better time with Cincinnati coming to town. The Steelers survived without him by going 2-2 in the four games he did not start and they get him back for the big game to stay within the division. We played against Pittsburgh last week in Kansas City with one of those reasons being the fact it had lost a game against the spread up to that point. That logic calls for going against Cincinnati this week as it comes in 5-0-1 ATS record gives value going the other way. Despite a 6-0 record, other than the opener against the Raiders, the Bengals have not outgained any other team by more than 60 total yards and have actually been outgained twice. Pittsburgh has won 10 of its last 12 home games coming off a double-digit loss and additionally, the Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a winning road record while the Bengals are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. While the top to bottom roster may be better than the Steelers, Cincinnati is not as dominant as it should be for a team that is undefeated. Pittsburgh avoids a 3.5-game deficit in the division with a big win Sunday and hands the Bengals their first loss. 10* (264) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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11-01-15 | 49ers +9 v. Rams | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on SAN FRANCISCO for our SUNDAY ULTIMATE UNDERDOG. The Niners have been all over the place this season. They looked great in their season opening win over Minnesota only to look horrendous in their next three games prior to a solid game against the Giants and a win over Baltimore and than last week happened. San Francisco was dominated by Seattle but we can't take too much out of that considering the Seahawks have dominated that series even when the 49ers were really good. Point being, the 49ers are not as bad as they have looked in some of their losses but are now getting their biggest line of the season. The Rams took care of Cleveland last week but they have yet to win consecutive games this season, going 0-2 after its first two wins, and is 1-5 since the start of last season following a victory. While this is a decent team and an improved squad, St. Louis is laying its biggest pointspread since Christmas Eve of 2005 which was the last time it laid more than a touchdown. The Rams are not that good to be doing it in this matchup as the gap is not this big. Additionally, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 93-46 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (259) San Francisco 49ers |
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11-01-15 | Vikings v. Bears +1 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on CHICAGO for our SUNDAY SUPREME ANNIHILATOR. The Vikings were a sexy pick to make the playoffs this season and they are living up to those expectations so far with a 4-2 record following their win last Sunday against Detroit. It is hard to get a grasp of how good Minnesota is with that record considering it has been outgained in four of its six games including two of three on the road. The Vikings will be seeking a third straight win for the first time in three years and going back they are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 road games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The Bears are far from out of its and have been playing very solid before they hit their bye last week. They had won two straight games before losing a tough one in overtime against the Lions. This is the first time they have been home in a month and despite being just 1-2 in three home games, Chicago has outgained all three opponents and that includes games against Green Bay and Arizona. While making the playing is probably already a longshot for the Bears, a win here is huge as a loss will be detrimental. The Vikings opened as favorites here but the line has since shifted the other way so while we missed the better number, I don't expect that come into play. 10* (254) Chicago Bears |
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10-31-15 | Notre Dame v. Temple +11 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 58 h 53 m | Show |
Notre Dame is back in the playoff hunt following its double-digit win over USC two weeks ago. It was a game it feasibly could have lost as the Irish were outgained by 114 total yards but survived thanks to taking advantage of turnovers and blocking a punt for a touchdown. This is just the third road game of the season for Notre Dame and the first two were far from perfect as one was a loss in Clemson while the other was the miracle win in Virginia in the final seconds. Temple has to be the biggest surprise in the nation as it is 7-0 for the first time in team history yet is getting no respect. The Owls are ranked No. 21 in the current AP Poll and amazingly this is the first time in the history of the program that is will be competing as a ranked team against a ranked team. That makes the atmosphere here on Saturday an electric one especially with a team like Notre Dame coming to town in primetime and with ESPN Gameday on campus as well. This is a bad spot yet the Irish are laying double-digits on the road and part of that is because of public love while also the fact that they have covered five straight games which the public loved flocking to. Going back, Notre Dame is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 games after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games while going 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in their previous game. 10* (156) Temple Owls |
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10-31-15 | Texas v. Iowa State +6.5 | Top | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on IOWA ST. for our SATURDAY ENFORCER. This game sets up perfectly for Iowa St. as three weeks ago, the Cyclones probably would have been favored here but now that Texas is again back on the public radar, the overadjusted line is in full force. The Longhorns upset Oklahoma three weeks ago then had a bye week and then defeated Kansas St. last week, which has some of its worst talent in years. Now they go from a seven-point home favorite to a road favorite of nearly the same because name and recent history. Iowa St. is just 2-5 on the season including losses in three straight games but those three games were against Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech. Those teams are ranked first, second and third in total offense respectively in the nation. Texas is ranked 107th so it is safe to say that the defense takes a big step down in class. It may be a surprise to some that the offense is what has made headlines this week as offensive coordinator Mark Mangino was fired as well it was announced that Joel Lanning would replace Sam B. Richardson as the Cyclones starting quarterback. While these moves may be a cause for concern, this is when the players rally around everyone. This is especially the case here where this game has been circled for a while. Two years ago, the Cyclones were in position to win but the referees misses a pair of fumble calls and Texas won by a point and followed it up with a three-point last season. And then there is the bulletin board material from Texas defensive tackle Paul Boyette stating that Iowa St. is not a very good team. The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record while going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams averaging 150 or fewer passing ypg. 10* (164) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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10-31-15 | Vanderbilt v. Houston OVER 49 | Top | 0-34 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 40 m | Show |
The Vanderbilt offense has been horrible of late but playing in the SEC can do that to teams. Now playing an out of conference game against a team with a weak defense can change that. The Commodores have scored a grand total of 53 points over their last four games and they have been terribly inefficient, ranking 115th nationally in turnovers and 126th in red-zone scoring. While not great numbers, they take on a Cougars defense that has been very inconsistent as well. They have allowed just 17 points the last two games but those came against UCF and Tulane which are a combined 2-13. The Houston offense will give Vanderbilt a challenge even though the Commodores possess a tough stop unit. Houston's offense is averaging 569 ypg over the last five games while scoring no fewer than 38 points. This is the lowest over/under the Cougars have seem all season and it is that way because of the results from Vanderbilt which has yet to go over a total this season. Houston is 16-6 to the over in its last 22 home games coming off a double-digit conference win while going 12-3 to the over in its last 15 home games after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of its previous game. While the Commodores are on an under run, they are 9-3-1 to the over in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (167) Vanderbilt Commodores/(168) Houston Cougars |
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10-31-15 | Clemson v. NC State +10.5 | Top | 56-41 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on NC STATE for our ACC GAME OF THE YEAR. Clemson is one of the bigger surprises in the country as it has climbed the charts from a preseason No. 12 team to its current ranking of No. 3 in the AP Poll. The Tigers leapfrogged LSU and TCU from the No. 6 spot because of the 58-0 win over Miami and while the voters made a kneejerk reaction, the linesmakers have as well. They opened the season with wins over Wofford and Appalachian St. then snuck by Louisville and Notre Dame, the latter which should have been a loss, followed by wins over Georgia Tech, losers of five straight and a mediocre Boston College team. Sure, Clemson is undefeated but other than a fortunate win in a monsoon over the Irish where they were actually outgained by 141 yards, the Tigers are a tad overrated. NC State won three games in 2013 in Dave Doeren's first season but turned things around last season by recording eight wins and this team is even better. Two straight losses against Louisville and Virginia Tech have the Wolfpack 1-2 in the ACC but this is a very underrated team. Florida transfer Jacoby Brissett quarterback is one of the best that no one has heard of as he has an absurd 33/6 TD/INT ratio the last two seasons and can keep this team in this game from an underdog standpoint. Clemson has played a tougher schedule but the fact it is outgaining opponents by 201.9 while the Wolfpack are outgaining opponents by just 40 ypg less shows these teams are much more eve. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 48-17 ATS (73.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (136) NC State Wolfpack |
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10-31-15 | San Diego State v. Colorado State +3.5 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -114 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
It has been a tale of two seasons for San Diego St. After defeating San Diego on the FCS, the Aztecs dropped three in a row but they have caught fire since then with four consecutive victories and with that comes value issues. They are now a road favorite for the first time this season which is pretty aggressive for a team that has previously struggled in this role. Colorado St. picked up its first conference win with a convincing victory against Air Force and is now a game under .500 in the MWC and overall. That game took place two weeks ago so the Rams have the edge for added preparation and rest following seven straight weeks of action. Two losses this season have come in overtime while a third loss against Utah St. was due to a 3-0 disadvantage in turnovers. San Diego St. now goes from a home underdog to a road favorite which is very aggressive switch and the Aztecs have a negative situation on their side as we play against any team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that is coming off a win by 21 or more points as an underdog, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1992. Additionally, San Diego St. is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread while Colorado St. is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after having lost two out of their last three games. 10* (148) Colorado St. Rams |
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10-31-15 | USC v. California OVER 69.5 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 41 m | Show |
This has the makings of a shootout which is the reason for the big number. The California offense is an explosive one but has been held in check the last two games against Utah and UCLA as it scored just 24 points in each game. Those were both on the road however so a return home is what the Golden Bears need to get the offense going again. Possible No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft, Jared Goff, leads the passing offense that ranks second behind only pass happy Washington State in the Pac 12 with 346 ypg. The Trojans did a phenomenal job getting pressure on Travis Wilson last week, forcing him into throwing four interceptions, but have been exposed by the likes of Kevin Hogan and DeShone Kizer. The young secondary will surely be tested here. USC quarterback Cody Kessler isn't far behind as the Trojans are averaging over 326 ypg which is 14th in the nation and he has thrown 18 touchdowns to just five interceptions. The Golden Bears have allowed 70 points the last two games while giving up 259.6 ypg and 12.4 yards per completion as the secondary is a very weak unit. California's secondary was carved up by UCLA freshman QB Josh Rosen, who completed 34-of-47 passes for 399 yards and three touchdowns. Kessler had a huge game against Cal last season, completing 31-of-42 for 371 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. 10* Over (153) USC Trojans/(154) California Golden Bears |
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10-31-15 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +24 | Top | 55-30 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
We played on Old Dominion last week and got burned as Florida International scored the game's final 24 points and pulled out the cover. The Monarchs actually won the yardage battle by 50 total yards and we are coming back with them here as a massive home underdog. They were getting 14 points on the road last week and are now getting over three touchdowns at home with a lot of that due to them not having covered a game yet this season. Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS which gives us huge contrarian value. Western Kentucky is a very solid team no doubt and had its four-game winning streak snapped last week at LSU. The Hilltoppers will be out to get back into the win column but laying this type of road lumber is too much. They were big road favorite at North Texas and won by 27 points but the Mean Green are one of the worst teams in the nation, sitting at 0-7. This is the third straight road game for Western Kentucky which puts it into a very tough position especially when being asked to win in a blowout. The Hilltoppers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored while going 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. While the Monarchs have yet to cover this season, it is important to note that this is the largest spread they have seen all season and it will prove to be too much. 10* (182) Old Dominion Monarchs |
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10-31-15 | Rutgers v. Wisconsin OVER 51.5 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show |
We played against Rutgers last week as it managed just seven points against the Buckeyes and while it is facing another tough defense, there is the hope of more offense this week. The Scarlet Knights defense has been atrocious of late as they have allowed 49 and 52 points which is right around where this number sits and it happens to be the lowest over/under Rutgers since facing Penn St. back on September 19th. The under has come in four of their last five games which helps with the value and the number itself. Wisconsin is on a much longer streak as it has stayed below the total in six straight games after starting the season 2-0 to the over. Defense has been the story as the Badgers have allowed just 7.7 ppg throughout this under streak while the offense has been pretty average. Wisconsin has scored no more than 28 points but it has faced some tough defenses along the way and Rutgers is not classified in that group. The Scarlet Knights are ranked 111th in total defense so the Badgers are expected to have a big day offensively. Despite the recent run of unders, Wisconsin is 15-3 to the over in its last 18 home games coming off a double-digit conference win and 28-14 to the over in its last 42 games when playing against teams with a losing record. 10* Over (131) Rutgers Scarlet Knights/(132) Wisconsin Badgers |
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10-30-15 | Warriors v. Rockets +2 | Top | 112-92 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
We lost by playing against Golden St. on Tuesday as it was able to pull away from New Orleans in its season opener. 13 more shot attempts and a 21-8 edge in offensive rebounding was the difference but that will not happen tonight and we will go against the reigning champion angle again here, especially as a road favorite against a team that will contend for the Western Conference championship. Houston is coming off a disappointing season opener where it was hammered at home by 20 points against the Nuggets in an awful shooting performance. The Rockets were eliminated in the Western Conference Finals last season by Golden St. in five games so they will be out for some payback. The Rockets are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games coming off a loss as a favorite and we will see a big bounceback effort tonight. 10* (720) Houston Rockets |
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10-30-15 | Wizards v. Bucks +2 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Milwaukee got embarrassed at home in its season opener against one of the worst teams in the NBA which makes them a focused bunch tonight as it takes the home floor again. The big thing from Wednesday was the fact that the Bucks allowed 122 points and this was from the second best defense in the NBA a season ago. Giannis Antetokounmpo returns to the lineup after a one-game suspension which also helps. Washington won in Orlando by a point and comes in as a road favorite once again. This is a very public team and with overadjusted lines, Washington went 33-46-3 ATS last season. Going back, the Wizards are 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss and here, we play on teams coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite, that had a winning percentage between .401 and .499 last season. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (712) Milwaukee Bucks |
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10-30-15 | Louisiana Tech v. Rice +13 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 9 m | Show |
Rice comes in a big home underdog despite being right in the thick of the C-USA West Division race as a win here could put the Owls in first place. They are coming off a pair of unimpressive wins over Florida Atlantic and Army West Point but at 4-3 and 2-1, there is not a huge dropoff between the Owls and Louisiana Tech as much as this line is telling us. Rice had to contend with some poor weather each of its last two weeks and that has had a lot to do with the closer than expected results. Louisiana Tech bounced back from a non-conference beating against Mississippi St. with a big win over Middle Tennessee St. by 29 points. That improved the Bulldogs to 3-1 in C-USA which is good for a tie for first place with Southern Mississippi in the C-USA West Division. They have been favored on the road in half of their four road games and failed to cover either of those as both of those games resulted in three-point decisions. Rice has had this game circled for a while as it came into the season finale against Louisiana Tech with a 7-4 record and got pounded 76-31 while getting outgained 677-371. It was a 28-24 game until the Bulldogs ran off 41 unanswered points and the 76 points allowed were the most since the Owls allowed 77 points against LSU back in 1977 so that is a pretty big motivator. Louisiana Tech is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games off a win by 21 or more points while Rice is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 home games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in its previous game. 10* (120) Rice Owls |
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10-30-15 | Senators v. Red Wings -127 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
We lost with Detroit on Tuesday as it fell at home 3-1 against Carolina. The thought was a big opportunity for the Red Wings to pick up a win at home following a four-game roadtrip and try to get out of a recent funk. Instead, they fell to 1-5 over their last six games but we are catching a good number here in the first of this home-and-home set against Ottawa. The Senators are coming off a 5-4 shootout win over Calgary which closed a four-game homestand and halted a four-game losing skid. While the offense has been solid, the issues have been on defense with the Senators surrendering 15 goals in their last four games. They're also used to falling behind, allowing the first goal in seven straight games and this is where Detroit needs to take advantage. Special teams has been an issue for the Red Wings, which rank 20th in power-play goal percentage (16.1), and 21st in penalty-killing percentage (78.8). Ottawa is 8-18 against the moneyline in its last 26 games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game and won't show much resistance tonight as Detroit gets its offense going once again. 9* (60) Detroit Red Wings |
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10-30-15 | Thunder v. Magic +8.5 | Top | 139-136 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is coming off a quality win over San Antonio in its season opener but now comes in as an overpriced road favorite tonight. This is an odd scheduling spot as the Thunder have Denver and Houston on deck over the weekend and this can be a lookahead situation. Orlando dropped a tough one in its opener as it fell by a point against Washington. The Magic covered as a home underdog and we should see that a lot this season. Despite just 25 wins last season, the Magic finished above .500 at the betting window and they have been so bad for so long, expectations are low once again which can lead to many good betting opportunities. Expect a full effort tonight from Orlando which head out on the road for three straight games as well as five of its next six. 10* (706) Orlando Magic |
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10-29-15 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 57 h 19 m | Show |
Miami has turned its season completely around since its London trip with the firing of Joe Philbin and the hiring of Dan Carpenter as head coach. The big turnaround has been on the offensive side as the Dolphins have scored 82 points over their last two games after scoring 65 points in their first four games. Because of the resurgence, the Dolphins went over the total in those two games and now the number this week has been adjusted and by too much in my opinion as this is the highest over/under Miami has encountered this season. Also, it is the first time the Dolphins have seen a total in the 50's since Week 13 of the 2012 season. Coincidentally, that was also against New England and it stayed well below the total. New England has also gone over the total in two straight games as well as four of its last five which is also playing a role in this week's total. The Patriots offense has been in high gear all season and while Miami has struggled on defense, that unit has also improved the last two weeks. Four of seven Thursday night games have gone over with two of the unders staying below by a total of just three points so the public continues to play the over on these nationally televised games. Both teams fall into a fantastic league-wide situation as we play the under involving any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 against division opponents, off a home win. This situation is 65-28 (69.9 percent) to the under since 1983. Additionally, Miami is 19-5 to the under in its last 24 games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl in two consecutive games. 10* Under (101) Miami Dolphins/(102) New England Patriots |
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10-29-15 | Blackhawks v. Jets -110 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Chicago hits the road following a perfect homestand where it went 4-0 to make it five straight wins at the United Center overall. The last two were nearly identical victories as the Blackhawks were scoreless with Tampa Bay and Anaheim through regulation but scored goals in each overtime to pull off the dramatic wins. Per Elias, since overtime was reintroduced in the NHL in the 1983-84 season, the Blackhawks are the first team to post consecutive overtime shutout victories. Also, The Blackhawks became the first team to win consecutive games by a 1-0 score in overtime with the same goal scorer and goaltender. That certainly leads to a letdown situation here when hitting the highway where Chicago is 1-2 including losses in two straight. Winnipeg concludes its six-game homestand tonight where it is just 2-3 including a loss last time out against the Kings 4-1. After facing the Blackhawks, Winnipeg plays eight of its next nine games away from home which makes game a pretty big one. Winnipeg falls into a great situation where we play against road Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 that are coming off three or more consecutive home wins in the first half of the season. This situation is 23-9 (71.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 15-4 against the moneyline in their last 19 home games after a loss by three goals or more in their previous game while going 10-4 in their last 14 games after scoring two goals or less. 10* (10) Winnipeg Jets |
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10-29-15 | Texas State v. Georgia Southern -21 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 55 h 42 m | Show |
We are laying a large number here with Georgia Southern but this has the potential to be a woodshed job. We played against the Eagles last Thursday as they ended up getting trounced by Appalachian St. which put them a half-game behind the Mountaineers and Red Wolves in the Sun Belt Conference. Appalachian St. became the first team to ever defeat the Eagles in a Sun Belt Conference game as they were 11-0 in Sun Belt play since joining the league in 2014. That alone should provide plenty of motivation heading into this week. Texas St. snapped a three-game skid with a home win over South Alabama and while the scoreboard showed an 18-point win, the Bobcats were actually outgained by 44 yards. They have been outgained in all five games against FBS teams and in three road games, they have been outgained by a total of 799 yards so clearly they have struggled on the highway. As far as a matchup edge, the Eagles have run the ball on 81.8 percent of their plays, totaling 31 rushing touchdowns and 2,587 rushing yards this season. Both marks lead the entire nation and they face a Texas St. defense that is ranked is 123rd in rushing defense. Don't expect the Eagles to look past Texas St. as they have a game with Troy on deck so there is no lookahead and they have not forgotten last year when they defeated the Bobcats by just three points while getting outgained 439-268. Following its first loss of the season, a 44-0 drubbing against West Virginia, Appalachian St. bounced back with a 26-point win over a solid Western Michigan team and we should see an even bigger blowout Thursday. 10* (110) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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10-28-15 | Wolves v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 112-111 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The Lakers are one of the teams in the Western Conference that we don't know much about because of their youth and the health of Kobe Bryant. One thing is for certain though and that is the talent is far superior than the opposition tonight and the fact the Lakers are the first to play at the Staples Center (over the Clippers) is a big deal. Bryant will set a league record for most seasons played with one franchise, surpassing John Stockton, who played for the Jazz from the 1984-85 season until his retirement after 2002-03. Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell are the future of the franchise which adds to the added excitement of this home opener. The Timberwolves are expected to struggle again this season after finishing with the worst record in the NBA last season, a miserable 50 games under .500. While preseason games typically do not factor into regular season betting analysis, it is hard to ignore the fact that Minnesota struggled immensely as three of five losses were by 22 or more points and that is a big problem. The Timberwolves won only seven games on the road last season and while the Lakers were not a lot better at home, they were banged up all season. This is a much different team and one that is healthy which is certainly huge in the beginning of the season. 10* (728) Los Angeles Lakers |
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10-27-15 | New Orleans Pelicans +10 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 95-111 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in Golden St. and we know what that means. The Warriors will be lowering their 2014-15 NBA Championship banner on Tuesday night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge event and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done. Now let's go back to the NBA Champion angle. Prior NBA Champions are usually slow starting out of the gate the following season since their lines are over-adjusted to start the season. The last 14 NBA Champions (San Antonio, Dallas, Boston, San Antonio four times, Miami three times, Detroit and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 42-71 ATS mark (37.2 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Distractions and overvaluation are definitely keys to this. We have seen it in the season opening game for the reigning NBA Champions for seven of the last nine seasons including last season when the Spurs failed to cover. Golden St. took care of Cleveland to win its first NBA Championship since 1975 and there will be a bullseye on their backs all season. That surely starts tonight for New Orleans which will be out for revenge after getting swept in the Conference Quarterfinals in four games. The Pelicans finished 45-37 last season to finish eighth in the Western Conference and they should only get better. They have covered 28 of their last 42 games as underdogs and will keep this one tight. 10* (505) New Orleans Pelicans |
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10-27-15 | New York Mets v. Kansas City Royals -101 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Game One of the World Series could be delayed and/or postponed as the weather in Kansas City is not looking promising. Rain is expected throughout the day and into the early evening and if there is any edge because of that, it goes to the Royals. The pitching aspect of it is the season because there is always the possibility of the game being started and then delayed and that would be a huge problem for the Mets and Matt Harvey. We aren't banking on this but it is just another added factor. Kansas City comes in 56-31 at home including a 5-14 record in the postseason and while they have the disadvantage on the mound tonight, it is not overwhelming based on the splits. Edinson Volquez gets the ball for the Royals and in 17 home starts, he has a 3.28 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with Kansas City winning 13 of those 17 games. Harvey has been much better at home than on the road and overall, New York is just 6-6 in his 12 road outings. He has not made a start on the road in over a month which is a huge gap in-between starts. The Royals are 13-7 this season as a home underdog and going back, they are 14-3 against the moneyline against National League teams with a team batting average of .250 or worse. Additionally, we play against National League road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 that are allowing 3.8 or fewer rpg on the season, after allowing four runs or less six straight games. This situation is 47-27 (63.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (902) Kansas City Royals |
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10-26-15 | Baltimore Ravens +9.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
Baltimore hits the west coast for the second straight week with its season hanging in the balance. The Ravens are a surprising 1-5 and while many will call them dead already, the schedule sets up very well going forward as they have a three-game homestand on deck while moving more forward, six of their next eight games are at home. A sixth loss will be detrimental but we aren't totally concerned with that here as the cover is in our interest and this line has gone through the roof. A big reason is the fact that Baltimore has yet to cover a game this season and with the public being a player of the favorite on Monday nights, the linesmakers had to make the overadjustment here. Arizona is coming off its second loss of the season last week at Pittsburgh so a win here is big for the Cardinals to avoid its lead in the NFC West to shrink to a half-game over the Rams. They have the highest point differential in the NFL which helps with the line as well as it has reached a point that Arizona is not accustomed to. Being favored by more than a touchdown is a rarity and not a successful number for the Cardinals as they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite between 7.5 and 14 points. Additionally, the Ravens fall into a fantastic league-wide contrarian situation where we play on road teams with a losing record on the season after five or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Baltimore's five losses this season are by a total of 22 points which further shows how much this line is off by. 10* (475) Baltimore Ravens |
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