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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-01-14 | Minnesota v. Florida State UNDER 136.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Both Minnesota and Florida St. have gone over the total in two of their three NIT games but all of those games were on their respective home floors and a change in environment as well as the pace of play should give us a low scoring game on Tuesday. Home court plays a big role in the NIT which is a reason why many of the top seeds advance into the final four at MSG but they are not used to the new surroundings and we have seen teams struggle offensively when coming here. Since 2010, this has definitely been the case. That year, Dayton/Mississippi and North Carolina/Rhode Island both stayed under the total by 30 points combined. In 2011, Washington St./Wichita St and Colorado/Alabama both stayed under the total by 47.5 points combined. In 2012, Massachusetts/Stanford and Washington/Minnesota both stayed under the total by 21 points combined. In 2013, BYU/Baylor and Iowa/Maryland both stayed under the total by 15.5 points combined. In total, the last eight NIT semifinal games have all gone under and it is not pure coincidence as MSG has a reputation of bad shooting sightlines so it comes as no surprise that teams have had trouble offensively. The Gophers are 10-3 to the under after one or more consecutive overs this season and Florida St. is part of a great situation where we play the under in neutral court games where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points in a game involving two slow-down teams that average 55 or fewer shots per games after 15+ games, after a game where it made 50 percent or more of their three-point shots. This situation is 41-12 (77.4 percent) since 1997. 10* Under (769) Minnesota Golden Gophers/(770) Florida St. Seminoles
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04-01-14 | Golden State Warriors +4.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 122-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the status of David Lee for Golden St. who was listed as doubtful on the injury report yesterday and remains there which makes no sense as to why there was no line when they came out late Monday afternoon. Nonetheless, this is a big game for both sides with the playoffs looming. Dallas is tied with Phoenix and Memphis at 44-30 for seventh place in the Western Conference which means one of those teams will be home for the postseason. The Mavericks are not playing at their best night now as they have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games following a home win over Sacramento on Saturday. This is their eighth straight home game but it does not set up well following that victory as well as the fact Dallas is just 2-5 ATS during this homestand. Golden St. is coming off a home loss against the Knicks on Sunday and while it sits ahead of the three teams that are tied, it is only up by a game and a half so this game is just as important for the Warriors. They have been great in bouncing back this season as they are 19-8 following a loss and they have been even better of late, winning nine of their last 10 games following a defeat. Their 21 road wins are tied for fifth most in the NBA and they will be looking to put an end to the home dominance in this series as the host has taken the last games including all three this season. A close game favors the Warriors based on the line and we cannot ignore the fact that Dallas has covered just four of 16 home games against teams with a winning record this season. 10* (763) Golden St. Warriors
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04-01-14 | Dallas Stars v. Washington Capitals -108 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Both Dallas and Washington are right in the hunt in their respective conferences Wild Card races as both are one point behind the second spot in those standings. That makes this a huge game for both sides and with the short price, the edge and the value are on the home side tonight. Washington has lost three straight games, two of which came in a shootout and another against Boston, which has the best record in the NHL. The Capitals had won six of their previous nine home games before facing Los Angeles and Boston and while Dallas is no slouch, they definitely take a step down in opposition tonight. The Stars meanwhile have won two straight games to pull within one point of Phoenix for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. This includes a huge upset win at St. Louis on Saturday but this is not a good road team overall as prior to that, Dallas was 3-11 in its previous 14 roadies including an 0-6 record against the Eastern Conference. Washington hits the road for four straight games after this so taking care of home ice tonight is of the utmost importance. The Stars are 2-5 in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while Washington is 5-1 in its last six home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (2) Washington Capitals
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03-31-14 | Cleveland Indians +126 v. Oakland A's | Top | 2-0 | Win | 126 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
We will use some generic jargon at the start of the MLB campaign. This is the best time of the season to back underdogs as these lines are based on recent past history from last season which leads to expectations this season. It is those expectations that we can go against as no one thing is a sure thing going from one season to the next and that is certainly the case in baseball. We can take advantage of some strong moneyline value. Both Cleveland and Oakland look to make it back to the postseason and this is a good series to start for both teams to get an early indication. The A's had one of the best home records in baseball last season but Cleveland posting a winning road record and went 25-8 against the American League West. Sonny Gray made a name for himself when he tossed eight shutout innings against Detroit in the playoffs but he followed that up with an average performance in a 3-0 loss which ended the series against the Tigers. He was solid last season after his July call-up but he made just 12 starts and while being the opening day starter is a huge accomplishment, he was kind of thrown into it with injuries to Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin. The Indians counter with Justin Masterson who string together a very solid season and he had his best campaign in Cleveland as far as WHIP and BAA as he posted 1.20 and .222 numbers respectively, both his best by far. A solid price for a Cleveland team that should be just as solid as its out of nowhere success in 2013. 10* (921) Cleveland Indians
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03-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Indiana Pacers +4.5 | Top | 103-77 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
After big home win over Miami, Indiana went on the road and put up two clunkers at Washington and Cleveland. It has been an absolutely horrible stretch of games for the Pacers that are 4-21-1 ATS in their last 26 games and things are not going to be easy tonight but they are catching a fantastic number at home. This is the first time all season that Indiana has been a home underdog and despite some sketchy losses of late, it is 15-5 this season following a loss and while the cover record is not as good, being an underdog throws that out. The Pacers are just a game ahead of Miami in the Eastern Conference but their 33-4 home record should give them some confidence back tonight. The Spurs clearly are the hottest team in the NBA with 17 straight wins but only six of those game have been on the road and the toughest opponent was Golden St. San Antonio is 43-5 against teams ranked outside the top ten but a much more pedestrian 14-11 against teams ranked within the top ten. Even worse, the Spurs are 1-9 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better this season. Indiana falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 games going up against an opponent after having covered four of their last five games against the spread. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) since 1996. 10* (734) Indiana Pacers
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03-31-14 | Toronto Blue Jays +152 v. Tampa Bay Rays | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
We will use some generic jargon at the start of the MLB campaign. This is the best time of the season to back underdogs as these lines are based on recent past history from last season which leads to expectations this season. It is those expectations that we can go against as no one thing is a sure thing going from one season to the next and that is certainly the case in baseball. We can take advantage of some strong moneyline value. It was a very disappointing season for Toronto last year as it came in as one of the favorites to win the American League East but the Blue Jays were hammered with injuries and a promising outlook turned into a 74-88 season. Expectations are much lower this season but this is basically the same team that every one was hyping a year ago and we can see those expectations in this line. The Blue Jays were a -173 favorite on opening day last season and now they are big dogs behind R.A. Dickey who was certainly a disappointment after winning the Cy Young with the Mets the season prior. IO expect a big turnaround from him this season and he looked very solid in the spring with the exception of one start. He faces Davis Price who is coming off an average season by his standards as his 10 wins were his lowest since .2009 and he allowed opponents to hit .252, a career high. 10* (917) Toronto Blue Jays
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03-31-14 | Chicago Cubs +152 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
We will use some generic jargon at the start of the MLB campaign. This is the best time of the season to back underdogs as these lines are based on recent past history from last season which leads to expectations this season. It is those expectations that we can go against as no one thing is a sure thing going from one season to the next and that is certainly the case in baseball. We can take advantage of some strong moneyline value. Pittsburgh is the second biggest consensus play for Monday and understandably so. The Pirates won 94 games last season while the Cubs won only 66 games, second worst in the National League ahead of only Miami. Therefore, Pittsburgh comes in as a huge favorite but I don't think it needs to be this big of a favorite with Francisco Liriano on the hill. He had a great season last year but he is expected to regress this year based on his high ground ball rate from a season ago, his lowest since 2010. Jeff Samardzija had a decent season last year even though he picked up just eight wins and he was much better on the road that at home, with a 1.20 road WHIP showing that. The Cubs won six of his last 10 road starts and despite Chicago winning just 43 percent of its road games last year, it was a net positive in units. Additionally, the Cubs went 11-4 in their last 15 road games against left-handed starters. 10* (901) Chicago Cubs
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03-30-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Diego Padres +102 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
We will use some generic jargon at the start of the MLB campaign. This is the best time of the season to back underdogs as these lines are based on recent past history from last season which leads to expectations this season. It is those expectations that we can go against as no one thing is a sure thing going from one season to the next and that is certainly the case in baseball. We can take advantage of some strong moneyline value. The Dodgers are 2-0 to start the season as they won both games over Arizona in Australia last week. While it was good for the game, it was clearly a distraction for Los Angeles as the travel aspect along with missing workout time is a hindrance. They are clearly one of the best teams in baseball but you are paying for that and on Sunday night, we are getting some serious value in a very underrated pitcher. Andrew Cashner won only 10 games last season but he posted a 3.09 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 31 starts and he is the opening day starter for a reason. This included a 1.95 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home and he was nasty after the All-Star break, posting a 2.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts. He allowed three runs or less in 17 of his last 18 starts. Hyun Jin Ryu did not allow a run in his first start against Arizona but went just five innings and his road ERA last season was close to a run and a half higher than his home ERA. 10* (998) San Diego Padres
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03-30-14 | Chicago Bulls -4.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Chicago is coming off a home loss against Portland on Friday following a three-day layoff after beating Indiana. The Bulls have been playing good enough to retain their fourth place position in the Eastern Conference but they are far from safe as Brooklyn is just a game and a half back from that coveted spot that comes with home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Even since a 2-9 stretch in December, the Bulls have been one of the best bounce back teams in the NBA. Chicago is 15-1 in its last 16 games following a loss with 12 of those victories coming by more than what it is favored by on Sunday. The Bulls have covered 12 of those games. Boston is coming off consecutive losses against Toronto and has now lost three straight games and eight of its last nine. The Celtics are seven games under .500 at home and have won just seven of 22 games as home underdogs and they are 13-20 ATS as underdogs of fewer than eight points. Chicago has two awesome situations in its favor here. First, we play on teams that are coming off a loss by 15 points or more as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This situation is 52-19 ATS (73.2 percent) since 1996. Second, we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This situation is 66-28 ATS (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (709) Chicago Bulls
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03-30-14 | Kentucky v. Michigan +2.5 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
Kentucky pulled the upset over Louisville as it closed with a 15-3 run to pull out the win. The Wildcats have covered six straight games and now they come in favored as the eight seed over the two seed and in my opinion and according to my rankings, the wrong team is in fact favored here. Kentucky is certainly peaking at the right time as it looks to get back into the Final Four after missing out last year but I don't see it happening. Michigan nearly squandered away a 15-point lead to Tennessee as the Volunteers would not go away and the Wolverines were helped out by a questionable offensive foul call with under 10 seconds remaining. Michigan shot 55.1 percent from the floor but allowed Tennessee to shoot 52.6 percent and the Wolverines uncharacteristically lost the turnover battle 12-7. this is where the difference will be on Sunday as Kentucky owns a 0.94 assist/turnover ratio while Michigan has a ratio of 1.56 and while it is positive in margin, the Wildcats are negative. Kentucky suffered a blow against Louisville as Willie Cauley-Stein hurt his ankle and is out for this one. His 101 blocks in 24.3 minutes per game ranked fifth in the country in the regular season. While we should see a close game, that benefits Michigan and even more so since it is the underdog as the Wolverines are 15-0 in games decided by 10 or fewer points this year. Look for them to make a return trip to the Final Four. 10* (720) Michigan Wolverines
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03-30-14 | Connecticut v. Michigan State OVER 139 | Top | 60-54 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
Both Elite 8 games on Saturday stayed under the total but those games featured some of the top defenses in the nation with Arizona and Florida ranked one and two respectively in adjusted defense. That is far from the case here as Connecticut and Michigan St., which normally rely on very strong defenses, are not as tough on that side of the floor this season. Yes, they both allow fewer than 40 percent shooting from the floor but the Huskies are 13th in adjusted defense while the Spartans are 34th. This is a fantastic matchup of guards and these teams boast two of the best backcourts in the country. That helps the perimeter shooting and long range touch as the Huskies are 16th in the nation in three-point shooting while the Spartans are 18th in three-point shooting. Easy second chance points for Michigan St. will help and we will see those as the only reason the Cyclones were in the last game was due to hitting the offensive glass hard, and that could be a problem for Connecticut against the Spartans as well. After playing a slow paced game against Virginia, Michigan St. will be more than happy to pick up the pace here and the Spartans are not averse to playing a fast-paced game and Connecticut will go along for the ride. The Huskies have gone over in all three tournament games thus far which snapped a run of eight straight games that went under and this is a great spot for the streak to continue. Michigan St. is 8-0 to the over after a combined score of 125 points or less this season with those games averaging over 157 ppg and it has gone over the total in its last six games following a game that stayed under the number. 10* Over (717) Connecticut Huskies/(718) Michigan St. Spartans
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03-30-14 | Boston Bruins v. Philadelphia Flyers +105 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
***Note 12:35 PM ET Start Time*** The Bruins were riding a 12-game winning streak before a stunning home shootout loss against Montreal on Monday. They have responded with two more wins including a victory yesterday afternoon in Washington and while that also was an afternoon game and the travel is not far, it puts the Bruins in a tough spot early on Sunday. Boston has won eight straight road games but this is no cakewalk as the Flyers have the third most home wins in the Eastern Conference. They are coming off a win over slumping Toronto on Friday so the extra day of rest and prep is to their advantage here. Philadelphia is in third place in the Metropolitan Division, three points ahead of the Blue Jackets so every game is huge now especially considering five of its final eight games are on the road. The Flyers will be out for some payback as well as one of their home losses this season came against Boston by a score of 6-1, its second worst home loss of the season. Philadelphia is 9-3 this season revenging a loss of three or more goals. Additionally, the Flyers are 4-0 in their last four home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while going 6-1 against the money line against teams averaging three or more gpg in the 2nd half of the season this season. We also have a contrarian situation on our side as we play against road teams against the money line that have won 20 or more of their last 25 games and playing their 4th game in seven days. This situation is 21-8 (72.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (8) Philadelphia Flyers
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03-29-14 | Wisconsin v. Arizona -3 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
Wisconsin has yet to break a sweat in the NCAA Tournament as it has won its three games by 40, 18 and 17 points and those last two were not as close as those margins indicate. That can be a good thing for the Badgers as they are peaking at the right time but they have had some favorable matchups and now they face the toughest opponent of the bunch and one that they do not match up well with. Wisconsin made 26-of-51 shots against Baylor, just the third time in school history the Badgers have shot better than 50 percent from the floor in an NCAA Tournament game so that does not bode well going forward. Especially against the best defensive team in the nation as Arizona is ranked first in adjusted defense. Wisconsin's first three opponents were ranked 51st, 68th and 78th in adjusted defense. The Wildcats rallied late to defeat San Diego St. and they have covered only one of three NCAA Tournament games thus far. However, they have a much shorter price here and on the season, Arizona is 5-1 ATS when favored by fewer than five points. Arizona is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games away from home when playing against teams allowing 64 or fewer ppg and while that average is good for the Badgers, they re just 46th in adjusted defense. Wildcats head coach Sean Miller has quietly gone 15-4 ATS in his 19 NCAA Tournament games and his team takes care of business to reach the Final Four for the first time since 2001. 10* (516) Arizona Wildcats
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03-29-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -2 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a big game for the Rockets which have had this game circled for over a month now. Houston looks to avoid the four-game season sweep and to draw even with the Pacific Division leading Clippers for third place in the Western Conference. The rockets are playing exceptionally well with five straight wins and while only one of those has been against a playoff contender, playing at home makes up for that here as they have won 11 straight games at the Toyota Center. Houston has won by an average of 14.6 ppg during the home win streak, it longest since a 12-game run in 2008-09. The task won't be easy to extend the streak but there is definitely motivation from losing the first three meetings, none of which were really close and have been by an average of 13.3 ppg. The Clippers won for us on Thursday as they won in Dallas, bouncing back from a two-point loss in New Orleans the previous night. They have been outstanding as underdogs this year and they too will be out to win to keep hold of the third spot in the conference while taking a run at the Thunder for second place. The situation is just not in their favor tonight. Houston is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games coming off a home win while going 18-8 ATS in its last 26 home games after a win by 10 points or more. Meanwhile the Clippers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (506) Houston Rockets
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03-29-14 | Detroit Red Wings v. Toronto Maple Leafs -109 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Toronto lost again last night in Philadelphia as the Flyers sent the Maple Leafs home on a seven-game losing streak. It has been a steady descent for Toronto as it had the Eastern Conference's fourth-best record on March 15th but the losing streak has put them outside the playoffs looking it. The Maple Leafs are tied with three other teams with 80 points for the final two Wild Card spots but are on the wrong side of the tiebreaker as their 27 regulation and overtime wins trail both Columbus and Detroit. The Red Wings are barely hanging on as well as they have dropped three straight games but remain in the Wild Card mix. They have been much better on the road than at home this season but not of late as they are 1-5 in their last six road games and are again not in good position tonight. Despite scoring four goals against Montreal last time out, they lost and this season they are 7-14 in their last 21 games after scoring four or more goals. Additionally, the Red Wings are 2-10 in their last 12 games coming off a home loss against a division rival while Toronto is 10-4 in its last 14 games after two straight losses by two goals or more. The seven-game skid ends tonight. 10* (58) Toronto Maple Leafs
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03-28-14 | Michigan State -2 v. Virginia | Top | 61-59 | Push | 0 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
While Virginia is the top seed in the East Region, the Cavaliers come into this game as the underdog and I feel it is more than justified. It was a pretty uneven season for Michigan St. as it comes into this game with a 28-8 record. After an awesome 18-1 start to the season, the injury bug hit and the Spartans closed the regular season on a 5-7 clip that included dreadful losses to Georgetown and Illinois. Despite winning the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan St. received a four seed and while many thought it was not good enough, it was likely correct based on the finish to the season. Now the Spartans are 100 percent healthy and because of the previous injuries, this team is deeper than ever as well. This is a great matchup as well as head coach Tom Izzo knows the Cavaliers system probably better than any other coach. "This is as home as it gets for me, as far as knowing who I'm playing," Izzo said, "knowing the style they play." The Cavaliers had an outstanding season as they won both the ACC regular season and tournament championships which locked down a number one seed. Virginia was the second weakest top seed coming in and the weakest remaining after the early departure of Wichita St. The Cavaliers possess one of the best defenses in the country but it will be tested here and if the Spartans can get out and run, it could be a long night for Virginia. While I hate agreeing with the so called TV experts, the Spartans could be the frontrunners right now. 10* (877) Michigan St. Spartans
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03-28-14 | Kentucky v. Louisville -4 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
We won with Kentucky this past Sunday as the Wildcats defeated the undefeated Shockers to send the top seed in the Midwest Region home early. It was one of the best all around shooting games Kentucky has played in a while as it nailed 54 percent of its shots but things won't come as easy this time around. The Wildcats look to be peaking at the right time as they have won five of their last six games with the lone loss coming by just a point against Florida but despite playing a four seed, they are catching the wrong one. Louisville is just behind Florida, anywhere from +350 to +500, to win the championship and like many, I feel the Cardinals were underseeded. They had a tougher than expected time with Manhattan and against St. Louis, they were able to pull away for the easy win. While additional motivation is not needed this time of year, facing their hated rival in a Sweet 16 games adds fuel to the fire and it is stoked even more after losing to Kentucky back on December 28th. After failing to cover five straight games, the Wildcats are a perfect 5-0 ATS in the postseason and that is adding to the value. Louisville is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 March games and that comes down to coaching. Speaking of coaching, the Cardinals are 17-6 ATS revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite under head coach Rick Pitino. 10* (882) Louisville Cardinals
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03-28-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets +7 | Top | 133-102 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The Spurs have won 15 straight games, which is two wins shy of a franchise record, following its win over Denver in the first game of this home-and-home set. San Antonio now has a three-game lead over Oklahoma City in the Western Conference standings. Taking nothing away from this streak because winning on a prolonged clip like this in the NBA is arguably the most difficult of any sport because of the letdowns and nights often taken off by players mentally, but the Spurs have had 10 of these games played at home while three of the five road games were at the Cavaliers, Lakers and Kings. San Antonio is 11-4 ATS over this stretch and while it has dominated the Eastern Conference with an 18-11 ATS record, it is just 20-22 ATS against teams from the west. Denver has dropped two straight games but those were at San Antonio and Oklahoma City, no shame in that, and going back, the Nuggets have lost four straight road games. But they have won their last five games at home including solid wins against Dallas and the Clippers, both of which as home underdogs. The home floor has not been great for Denver this season as it has 16 losses which is just eight fewer than the previous three season combined. The reason for the lack of dominance has been playing down to the level of competition but at the same time, the Nuggets have played up to the level of competition as they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Denver also falls into a solid situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging 103 or more ppg on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (870) Denver Nuggets
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03-28-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Brooklyn Nets -9 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Despite being 15 games under .500, the playoffs are still a possibility for Cleveland which shows how poor the Eastern Conference is at the bottom. The Cavaliers have won three straight games, their longest winning streak since winning six games in a row in early February, and most important for these purposes, they have covered six straight games. Four of those were at home against teams going into the playoffs but the two road covers were against non-playoff teams from the Eastern Conference. Dion Waiters hit a buzzer-beater to cap a 10-0 run as the Cavaliers defeated Detroit last time out and I think those dramatics have a negative lingering effect here. Taking nothing away from what it has done lately, but Cleveland is in a horrible spot here. The Nets return home following a three-game roadtrip which saw all three games going into overtime. They were on the wrong side of the scoreboard the last two games, losing at New Orleans and Charlotte and they are now 2.5 games behind Toronto in the Atlantic Division but two back in the loss column so they know they cannot fold at home. Brooklyn can catch the Raptors as its remaining schedule of 12 games includes just two teams currently sitting in a playoff spot. The Nets have covered nine of their last 10 games at home and while this number is big, they are 5-1 ATS this season when favored by seven or more points. Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. The Nets have been extra solid coming off a loss, covering six of their last seven games. Additionally, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg after a combined score of 205 points or more three straight games. This situation is 32-12 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (858) Brooklyn Nets
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03-28-14 | Pittsburgh Penguins +102 v. Columbus Blue Jackets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 102 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
The fight for the two Wild Card spots in the Eastern Conference is really heating up now as four teams are tied with 80 points including Columbus. The Blue Jackets are coming off a win in their last game against Detroit which snapped a three-game home losing streak but they have had problems of late stringing together victories and while this is a big game for playoff positioning, they are catching the wrong team at the wrong time. Pittsburgh lost at home last night against the surging Kings which was its third straight loss and it is now nine points behind Boston for first place in the Eastern Conference. The Penguins are now just six points ahead of Montreal so the two seed in no longer a guarantee like it once though it was. The Penguins have dominated this series as they have won all four meetings this season and are 8-0-1 in their last nine against Columbus with Sidney Crosby in the lineup. Penguins are 7-2 in their last nine games playing on zero days rest while the Blue Jackets are 14-37 in their last 51 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while going 7-28 in their last 35 games against teams averaging three or more gpg. Additionally, we play against home teams in the second half of the season when the money line is -100 to -150 off a home win by two goals or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning. This situation is 48-26 (64.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (3) Pittsburgh Penguins
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03-27-14 | San Diego State +6.5 v. Arizona | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 59 h 7 m | Show |
This is the biggest line in the Sweet 16 matchups and I think it is going to prove to be too big. It wasn't that long ago that San Diego St. was riding a 20-game winning streak, part of its 21-1 start to the season with that only loss coming at home to this same Arizona team. That defeat was so long ago however that looking at that meeting is pretty pointless now that forward Dwayne Polee has emerged as a threat for the Aztecs and didn't even play in that first meeting. On the other side, Brandon Ashley was lost for the season with an injury, giving Arizona less offense, rebounding, and depth than they had in their first meeting. While the Aztecs have gone 10-3 over their last 13 games, that is a solid finish that cannot be discounted. The win over the Aztecs was part of a 21-game winning streak to start the season for Arizona and its finish of 11-4 is similar to that of San Diego St. Taking nothing away from the Wildcats but San Diego St. is not getting enough respect and will be playing with a chip on its shoulder. These are two of the best defenses in the country as Arizona is first in adjusted defense while San Diego St. is seventh in adjusted defense and a low scoring game, which should be the case, favors the underdog. San Diego St. is 9-2 ATS this season away from home following a double-digit win while Arizona is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games away from home after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. 10* (815) San Diego St. Aztecs
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03-27-14 | UCLA +5 v. Florida | Top | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 58 m | Show |
UCLA has had a fairly easy road to the Sweet 16 as it took care of Tulsa and Stephen F. Austin without much trouble but now the task to advance becomes a lot more difficult. The Bruins will not be intimated and they match up well against Florida and at this stage, backing an underdog that can clearly win outright is in our best advantage. UCLA lost its regular season finale at Washington St. as it could have cared less in that game but the Bruins have been clicking on all cylinders since then with five straight wins including a blowout of Oregon and a win over Arizona in the Pac 12 Tournament championship. UCLA has one of the best offenses in the nation and while Florida hangs its hat on its defense, it will be up to the Bruins to force the tempo as they need to rebound and push the ball up the floor before Florida gets settled into its defense. This is the best offense Florida has seen in a long time and certainly the best away from home. One major edge for UCLA is at the charity stripe as they shoot a whopping 9.3 percent better than the Gators and that can be the difference between a cover or even an outright victory should the game be close late. The bruins are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against teams outscoring opponents by four or more ppg and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games. 10* (809) UCLA Bruins
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03-27-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -2 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
With Memphis and Phoenix both winning last night, Dallas now finds itself sitting in ninth place in the Western Conference which puts the Mavericks in a must win spot. Although there are still a lot of game left in the season so a loss will not do much damage and this is one of those arguments that says if a team is in a near must win spot fighting for a playoff spot, it must not be good to begin with. That is partially true as Dallas is a good team but it is not part of the elite group in the Western Conference like it used to be. The Mavericks are coming off a huge overtime win over Oklahoma City on Tuesday which kept their pace in the standings but tonight they are catching a team that is just as good as the Thunder and one that is in a foul mood. The Clippers lost in New Orleans last night as they missed a shot at the buzzer to win it and this is an important game for them as well. Los Angeles saw its lead over Houston slip to one game in the battle for third place in the Western Conference and the Rockets have a sure win tonight against the Sixers. The Clippers are 15-9 as road favorites, covering 14 of those games while going 11-5 ATS on the road against winning teams. Additionally, they are 16-5 straight up and 15-6 ATS following a loss and it is interesting to note that of those five consecutive losses, Miami (twice), Indiana and San Antonio were on one end of those losses in four of those games. Here, we play on road favorites off two or more consecutive home wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (807) Los Angeles Clippers
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03-27-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
It may be surprising to see the Bucks favored in a game and while it is rare, it is the correct call here and while they probably cannot be asked to lay many more points, they should be and should win this one going away. Milwaukee has been a favorite only five times this season, going 3-2 straight up and ATS including wins in its last two games against the Jazz and Sixers. The Bucks are back home following a four-game west coast roadtrip where they went 0-4 but were very competitive as they covered three of those games. Despite the Sixers having lost 25 straight games, Milwaukee still owns the worst record in the NBA by two games over Philadelphia. I mentioned tanking yesterday when talking about Utah, and Milwaukee is in a better position obviously but has remained a team playing very hard as the Bucks are 17-7 ATS over their last 24 games. They have 11 more games left, eight against teams that are heading to the playoffs. The Lakers have won two straight games including a 31-point destruction of the Knicks on Tuesday. Those were at home though and the Lakers are 11-24 on the road and even though there was a day of rest, it is still a letdown after that big win and going back, the Lakers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points. Additionally, we play against underdogs that are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 93-53 ATS (63.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Milwaukee is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games following a loss and look for that streak to continue after covering this short number. 10* (804) Milwaukee Bucks
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03-27-14 | Los Angeles Kings v. Pittsburgh Penguins -110 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
We waited on releasing this until the starting goalies were confirmed and we got what we were looking for. The Kings have been playing exceptional as they once again came back from being down to win on Tuesday at Washington. Los Angeles has won four straight and 12 of 15, and it's won all seven on the road since the Olympic break. Now comes another big test and with the other side desperate for a win, I think the Kings finally have that road winning streak snapped. Pittsburgh meanwhile has been struggling as it has gone 2-4-1 in its last seven games after falling 3-2 to Phoenix on Tuesday, its second straight loss at home. While the goalie situation may seen uneven for the Penguins, I feel we are getting a good price because of it. Marc-Andre Fleury dropped to 0-3-1 with a 3.76 GAA in his last five starts which is his worst run in two years but expect a big bounceback effort against Los Angeles which averages just 2.35 gpg, tied for fourth lowest in the NHL. The Penguins are 37-18 in their last 55 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game while the Kings are 2-7 in their last nine games in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Additionally, we play against road underdogs of +100 to +200 that are revenging a same season loss, off a road win by one goal. This situation is 82-29 (73.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (52) Pittsburgh Penguins
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03-26-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Utah Jazz +8 | Top | 91-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
While this isn't the best television option, this game is on ESPN tonight so it is an opportunity to back a home team in a rare nationally televised game. It has been a trying season for Utah but everyone saw it coming and it now possesses the worst record in the Western Conference. This is the time of season where we have to be weary of teams tanking, those squads that have no chance at the playoffs and are looking for better percentages come draft lottery time. That is not the case in Utah as Trey Burke unleashed on the theory after their recent loss to the Pistons. "We play hard, practice hard every single day. Why would we want to go out there and try to lose?" Burke said. "Wherever we do land in the lottery, that will be great for us, but to try to tank games and lose games, I think, is just absurd." Playing this one in the national spotlight, they will try and prove that. Memphis continues to play well as it has won two straight, four of five and eight of 10 to stay in a tie for seventh place in the Western Conference. However, they are overvalued big time here. These teams played in Memphis a week ago and the Grizzlies were favored by 11 points and now they are favored by 8 points so the eight-point line swing is not in play here which is great for the home dog. The Jazz are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (770) Utah Jazz
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03-26-14 | Philadelphia Flyers +137 v. NY Rangers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
We are catching a great price with Philadelphia. The Rangers are pretty hefty favorites despite bringing in a 17-20 home record compared to the Flyers 16-19 road record. The line seems to be based on past history where New York has won seven straight home meetings in this series but that can be tossed out as these teams are completely different from when that streak started. The Flyers are actually a bigger underdog here than they were in their last road game at Pittsburgh which has the second best record in the Eastern Conference and is 13 points better than the Rangers. New York is riding a four-game winning streak after defeating Phoenix in overtime on Monday but as mentioned, it has been average at home. The Flyers meanwhile had their five-game winning streak snapped on Monday against the Kings and after a rough ending to January, Philadelphia is 12-4 over its last 16 games and a win here will allow it to leapfrog the Rangers and into fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Goalie Steve Mason will be back between the pipes for the Flyers and he has won four consecutive starts with a 1.50 GAA as well as three straight against the Rangers with a 1.67 GAA. The Rangers are 5-11 in their 16 home games this season against teams with a winning record while going 1-8 in their nine home games revenging a loss of two goals or more. Philadelphia meanwhile is 21-9 in its last 30 games coming off a loss by one goal. 10* (3) Philadelphia Flyers
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03-26-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Washington Wizards +2.5 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
We played against Phoenix on Monday in Atlanta but the Hawks could not sustain a solid first half as they allowed 35 third quarter points and their rally fell short. The Suns have now won two straight games on this roadtrip which concludes tonight and going back, they have win four straight games since suffering through a 5-8 slide that pushed them out of the Western Conference playoff standings. The recent run however has inched the Suns closer as they are now just a half-game behind Memphis and Dallas which currently hold down the seventh and eighth spots. So while this is a big game, the line is taking that into consideration as Washington opened as a favorite and it now getting points. The Wizards are back home after a four-game roadtrip that did not go well as they went 1-3 but one loss came in overtime and the most recent defeat at Denver was by just three points. Washington is 4-2 in its last six home games and as the season has progressed, it has been a home underdog fewer and fewer times and for good reason. Since January 15th, the Wizards have been a home underdog six times and they are 4-2 straight up and ATS with one of those losses coming in overtime against the Spurs. The Wizards are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 100 points or more two straight games this season. 10* (754) Washington Wizards
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03-26-14 | VMI +8 v. Ohio | Top | 92-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
We head to the College Insider Tournament tonight and will be backing a VMI team that is playing loose and has every change to win this game outright. The Keydets have won both of their CIT games by 11 points with the style that they have used all season long and that is outrunning the opponent. This is a bad matchup for Ohio as it has not encountered a team like this and while the Bobcats rely on a strong defense, they won't be able to utilize it here simply because they won't have time to. VMI leads the nation in scoring with 88.3 ppg and average more possessions per game (80.4) than any other team in the country. The Keydets usually hoist up a shot within 10 seconds of the shot clock, not giving the opponent any time to set up a defense. They go nine deep so they are well equipped to go at a fast pace and that is not good for the Bobcats which are still banged up which hurts their depth. Ohio is coming off two narrow two-point low scoring wins over Cleveland St. and Wright St. from the Horizon and its 14-6 home record is nothing but average. The Bobcats are just 5-11 ATS at home and 4-9 ATS as favorites of three or more points. Additionally, Ohio is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after allowing a shooting percentage of 33 percent or less over the last two seasons while going 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after a combined score of 125 points or less. Ohio is in no position to be laying this type of number especially against a team that looks to be the more hungry unit at the time. 10* (777) VMI Keydets
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03-25-14 | Southern Mississippi v. Minnesota -5 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show |
Minnesota was pretty unmotivated in its first NIT game against High Point as it won by just seven points as a 17-point favorite. The Gophers were clearly not into it based on their snub of not getting into the NCAA Tournament and that carried over into the next game against St. Mary's. They fell behind 14-0 before something finally clicked and they went on to defeat the Gaels by eight points on Sunday and that victory will carry over into this one as they now seem like they want to keep the season going. A trip to NYC for the semifinals is on the line and this is now for certain the final home game for a trio of seniors and they want to end on a high note. Southern Mississippi is also coming off a win on Sunday as it upset Missouri on the road and while this is a very solid team, this is a tough turnaround in a short time frame. The Golden Eagles road success is keeping this line lower than it should be as they have won and covered three straight on the highway although they were favored in two of those. There is also additional motivation for the Gophers. Southern Miss is led by coach Donnie Tyndall, who coached DeAndre Mathieu at Morehead State for one year before Mathieu left after Tyndall did not offer him a scholarship. It also marks the return of Chip Armelin who played at Minnesota for a little more than one season before transferring to play for the Golden Eagles. Minnesota is 7-2 ATS as a favorite of seven points or less and we will see its best full game of the NIT right here. 10* (662) Minnesota Golden Gophers
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03-25-14 | Colorado Avalanche -118 v. Nashville Predators | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
We lost with Colorado in its last game at home against Boston as it was unable to get on the scoreboard in a 2-0 loss. It was the third straight loss for the Avalanche but the good news here is that they have had three days off and should come in fresh and ready to snap that skid. Colorado is three points behind Chicago for fourth place in the Western Conference and that is a big spot to have as home ice comes with it in at least the first round of the playoffs. Seven of their last 11 games are on the road, including this one, and this one is a must win as five of those remaining games on the road are against powerhouse home teams, Edmonton being the lone exception. Nashville used to possess one of the best home ice advantages in the NHL but that has not been the case this season as it is 15-21 at home and with 72 points total, it is well out of the playoff picture. The Predators have won two straight games however, both on the road at Calgary and a huge upset at Chicago on Sunday. That presents a letdown opportunity here despite a desperate need to win at home. Colorado is an incredible 13-0 this season coming off a home loss and perfection remains intact after tonight. 10* (65) Colorado Avalanche
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03-25-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Orlando Magic +5 | Top | 85-95 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
Orlando comes into this game riding a nine-game losing streak but it is getting a significant amount of points against a team that is not much better on the road than the Magic are at home. They are back home after a four-game roadtrip while going back further, six of their last eight games have been on the highway and with a road record of 4-34, that is not a good thing. Orlando is 15-18 at home which is far from spectacular, but despite having the third worst overall record in the East, the Magic only have the seventh worse home record. More importantly, they are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. The Blazers have been very up and down of late, losing seven of their last 11 games heading into Monday. And Monday plays a big role as Portland was at Miami and that spells automatic letdown, win or lose. After starting 15-5 in their first 20 road games, the Blazers are just 4-11 in their last 15 games on the highway. Orlando is off until Friday after this game so there will be no lack of focus to stop its losing streak as well as to try and rebound from its 16-point loss in Portland earlier this season. 10* (654) Orlando Magic
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03-25-14 | Los Angeles Kings v. Washington Capitals -110 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The Kings are coming off a win in Philadelphia last night to extend their winning streak to three games to remain in sixth place in the Western Conference standings. This is the second game of a tough three-game roadtrip with Pittsburgh awaiting on Thursday and while Los Angeles is now 20-15 on the road, tonight's task will prove to be a challenge. Not only is this the second of back-to-back games but it is the third game in four nights and the fourth game in six nights and the Kings are 2-7 in their last nine games in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation and 1-7 in their last eight games in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. The Capitals are one point behind Toronto and Detroit for the first and second Wild Card spots in the Eastern Conference and with all three teams playing tonight, a lot can happen. Every game is now huge for Washington and taking care of home ice is imperative. Not that any more motivation is really needed but the Capitals will have a little extra in the tank. Washington went 2-1 on its most recent roadtrip with the lone loss coming in Los Angeles in a shootout loss so it will be out for some immediate payback as well as snapping a six-game skid in this series. 10* (52) Washington Capitals
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03-24-14 | Arkansas v. California -3 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 109 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
Both Arkansas and California are coming off blowout wins in their first round NIT games as the Razorbacks hammered Indiana St. at home while the Golden Bears took out Utah Valley by 13 points. Those games were early last week and it gives some of the teams that were disappointed in not making the NCAA Tournament a chance to get over that while beating up on a hapless opponent and now the spark is back. With California staying at home, I think it gives them a solid edge here. The Golden Bears have not covered a game in over a month as they are on a 0-7-1 ATS run and the one thing that is doing for us is giving us exceptional value. They are 14-4 at home while Arkansas is just 3-6 in true road games and only one of those wins was against a team with a winning record. Arkansas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games off a home win by 10 points or more and 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 85 or more points. Additionally, the Razorbacks are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of three points or less while California is 19-9 ATS in 28 home games off a home win by 10 points or more under head coach Mike Montgomery. Look for a much needed statement win for California. 10* (626) California Golden Bears
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03-24-14 | Winnipeg Jets +136 v. Dallas Stars | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Dallas got back into the win column on Saturday as it defeated Ottawa 3-1, sending the Senators to their sixth straight loss so while the win was needed, it was certainly not an impressive one. The Stars are fighting for one of the two Western Conference Wild Card spots as they are two points behind Phoenix for the second slot. Dallas is 19-17 at home this season and while this is a revenge game for the Stars, they are just 4-13 in their last 17 home games revenging a loss by four or more goals. Winnipeg is also in the fight for that second Wild Card spot as it is four points behind Dallas so this is a huge game for the Jets. They lost last time out at home against Carolina and they have no doubt been struggling with losses in eight of their last 10 games including both road. Going back they are 6-8 in their last 14 road games but six of those losses have come against St. Louis (twice), Colorado, San Jose, Pittsburgh and Boston, five of the best home teams in the NHL. The Jets fall into a solid situation where we play against home teams in the second half of the season that are revenging a road loss by two goals or more, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 33-17 (66 percent)over the last 5 seasons. 10* (9) Winnipeg Jets
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03-24-14 | Indiana Pacers +1.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 77-89 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
We won with the Pacers in this most recent meeting that took place on Friday as they won going away and while Chicago is playing with revenge, Indiana is in better shape for tonight. The Pacers are coming off a loss in Memphis on Saturday and while it has been an up and down stretch, Indiana remains three games ahead of Miami for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers did fail to cover against the Grizzlies and are now a disappointing 4-17-1 ATS over their last 22 games so picking the right spots at the right times is key and this is one of those. The Pacers are 14-4 following a loss this season, going 10-7-1 ATS but now being a short underdog, a win means a cover as well. Chicago defeated the Sixers in its last game and over its last four games, it has lost to Oklahoma City and Indiana while beating Philadelphia twice. Overall, the Bulls are just 9-15 against the NBA top ten and while the home team has won six straight meetings, that streak ends here. Here, we play on road teams that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, playing six or more games in 10 days. This situation is 60-26 ATS (69.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (611) Indiana Pacers
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03-24-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. New Orleans Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
The Nets burned us last night as they rallied from a 14-point deficit including coming back from seven points down in the fourth quarter to force overtime and eventually defeat the Mavericks. That is the type of victory we like to go against in the next game, especially when playing in back-to-back days. Last night increased the winning streak to four games for Brooklyn with three of those wins coming at home where it is 23-11 on the season. It has been a different story on the road where Brooklyn is 14-20 on the season and while they are 9-8 in their last 17 road games, seven of those wins came against teams with losing records. The Nets are 3-7 this season when playing with no rest and the second game is on the road. New Orleans is squarely on the outside of the playoff picture with no chance of getting in but it continues to play hard and has won two straight games including a win over Miami on Saturday. The best part of that win was that there is a day of rest between that and tonight so we can avoid the letdown factor. The Pelicans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. 10* (614) New Orleans Pelicans
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03-23-14 | Minnesota Wild +101 v. Detroit Red Wings | Top | 4-3 | Win | 101 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
We won with Minnesota this past Tuesday as it rolled over the Islanders 6-0 but since then it has lost two straight games to fall to 1-4 over its last five games and 2-7 over its last nine games. The most recent setback came last night at home against Detroit in the first game of this home-and-home so the Wild will be out for some quick revenge but most important, they need to get back into the win column. Minnesota leads the Western Conference Wild Card standing by four points over Phoenix and six points over Dallas for one of the two spots so while it is in good shape, the upcoming schedule after this game is arguably the toughest in the league. The Red Wings are right in the thick of the Eastern Conference Wild Card race also as they trail Toronto by a points and are tied with Washington for second place, one point ahead of Columbus. The road win last night was not a huge surprise as Detroit has been better on the road than at home where it is 15-20 on the season. Here we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 when the money line is -100 to -150 that are coming off a road win by one goal, playing a winning team. This situation is 53-31 (63.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (59) Minnesota Wild
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03-23-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Dallas Mavericks -4.5 | Top | 107-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
With a lot of lines coming out late, this is being released late based on what came out and there was nothing unexpected so we stay with this one. Dallas is coming off a win against Denver on Friday as it rebounded from its one-point overtime loss against Minnesota on Wednesday. The Mavericks have now won four of their last five games and continue to hold down seventh place in the Western Conference as they are a half-game ahead of Memphis and a game and a half ahead of Phoenix so every game is big at this point. Their 23-11 home record is tied for ninth best in the NBA and that includes a 22-6 record when listed as the favorite. Brooklyn is coming off a three-game homestand which all resulted in wins and that extended the Nets home winning streak to 11 games. It has been a different story on the road where Brooklyn is 13-20 on the season and while they are 8-8 in their last 16 road games, seven of those wins came against teams with losing records. They have won seven games as a road favorite but just five games as a road underdog against 12 losses. The Mavericks fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival going up against an opponent off a home win by 10 points or more. This situation is 53-24 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (712) Dallas Mavericks
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03-23-14 | Stephen Austin +9 v. UCLA | Top | 60-77 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
We won with Stephen F. Austin on Friday as it won against VCU and we will be playing the Lumberjacks once again as they are catching another very good number. Stephen F. Austin has a motion offense that has five players averaging at least 9.6 ppg and an active man-to-man defense that is among the national leaders in turnover margin. As mentioned on Friday, the schedule has been pretty easy this season but they held their own against Texas for most of the game and this group had some big wins last season so there is no intimidation factor. The Lumberjacks are very disciplined and showed no signs of panic against VCU, or awe at being in the NCAA tournament. The Bruins are playing some of their best basketball of the season. UCLA buried Oregon and Stanford to open the Pac 12 Tournament, then outlasted Arizona in the title game. The victory over Tulsa on Friday, as uneven as it was, never seemed in doubt. It was the Bruins' fourth consecutive victory, matching their longest streak since opening the season with eight consecutive victories against teams not in the NCAA tournament experience. UCLA is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 12 points while the Lumberjacks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. 10* (729) Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
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03-23-14 | North Carolina +2 v. Iowa State | Top | 83-85 | Push | 0 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
North Carolina snuck by Providence on Friday and got a decent draw with Iowa St. up next that was bolstered by the season ending injury sustained by forward Georges Niang. He broke his ankle in the win over NC Central and he was third on the team in scoring with 16.7 ppg. That is a big loss for the Cyclones as losing any starter is a blow to a team that typically sticks to a seven-man rotation, but Niang is the tallest player among the Cyclones starters, a leader and a threat to score both inside and outside. After a 0-3 start in the ACC, the Tar Heels won 13 of their next 14 games which coincided with Leslie McDonald's return to the starting lineup after a knee injury. One concern is North Carolina's free throw shooting as it is hitting just 62.6 percent compared to 69.8 percent for the Cyclones but the Tar Heels go to the line a lot more and they actually outscore Iowa St. from the stripe so there is no issue. Here we play on teams after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games going up against an opponent after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. This situation is 139-83 (62.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (725) North Carolina Tar Heels
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03-23-14 | Kentucky +5 v. Wichita State | Top | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
The favorites have held their own thus far in the NCAA Tournament especially after a 6-2 ATS day on Saturday but the underdogs should have their day today. We start out with Kentucky as this line has gone through the roof. The Wildcats defeated Kansas St. on Friday as they continue to play well and at the perfect time. They have covered four straight games with the lone straight up loss over that stretch coming against Florida by just one point. Wichita St. had no trouble with Cal Poly in its second round game to remain undefeated on the season at 35-0 and it has now covered nine straight games. Those two records alone have pushed this line to where it is as it is four points higher than it should be. This is the Shockers biggest test of the season and taking nothing away from an undefeated record but it came by way of an extremely tame schedule, the worst of any remaining team in the tournament. Kentucky has every chance of ending the Shockers perfect season and the overinflated line is just a bonus. 10* (721) Kentucky Wildcats
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03-22-14 | Oregon +5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 77-85 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Wisconsin dismantled American on Thursday and while we were on the wrong side of that one, we will be going against the Badgers again here. They faced an Eagles teams that slows down the tempo with a Princeton style offense but now it is the complete opposite as Oregon brings in a potent, up tempo offense. Speed is the advantage the Ducks have over a Wisconsin team whose offense goes through 7-foot Frank Kaminsky and seeks to make the opponent play defense as long as possible every single possession. The Ducks Arizona
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03-22-14 | Texas +5 v. Michigan | Top | 65-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Texas won on a last second shot against Arizona St., its first NCAA Tournament win since 2011. The Longhorns look to make a trip to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2008 and while we are getting a very decent number here, winning this game outright is not out of the question at all. Texas has a big size advantage here as it has dominated the boards all season long and that is an issue for Michigan. While the Longhorns were actually outrebounded against the Sun Devils on Thursday, they faced a team with similar size but that is not the case today as the Wolverines start a four-guard lineup. This puts a lot of pressure on Jon Horford and Jordan Morgan and if one or even both get into early four trouble, Michigan is going to be scrambling. The Wolverines offense is very efficient and it relies heavily on the three-ball and while they have done a great job this season with it, a bad shooting game can happen and you can just ask Duke about that. Michigan shot well against Wofford but it can be thankful that the Terriers went 1-19 from long range while going to the free throw line only four times. Texas meanwhile went to the line 27 times against Arizona St. Michigan is 1-7 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season and while it isn't considered a letdown here, it is not a good second game matchup for the Wolverines. 10* (527) Texas Longhorns
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03-22-14 | St. Louis +9.5 v. Louisville | Top | 51-66 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
St. Louis is coming off a big come from behind win over NC State on Thursday and instead of being a letdown from that today, it should provide the Billikens with some much needed confidence and momentum. They have been a poor covering team all season but especially of late as they are 1-8-1 ATS over their last 10 games but looking at those numbers will tell you why. This is the most amount of points the Billikens have seen this season and with a defense as stout as theirs, a big number is even more inviting. The defense did not stop the Wolfpack the other night so we can expect a much better effort today despite playing a better and more diverse team. Louisville is coming off a closer than expected game against Manhattan as the Cardinals won by seven points, snapping their five-game ATS winning streak. St. Louis will not be intimidated as this is an experienced team with five senior starters that want nothing more than to get to the Sweet 16 for the first time after bowing out each of the last two years against Oregon and Michigan St. while the defense is the big factor, the Billikens are efficient on offense and don't turn the ball over. Going back, St. Louis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more ppg. 10* (523) St. Louis Billikens
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03-21-14 | Boston Bruins v. Colorado Avalanche +109 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Boston is coming off another win, this time over New Jersey on Tuesday to extend its winning streak to 10 games. The Bruins are now four points ahead of Pittsburgh after the Penguins were able to grab just one point in Detroit last night after losing in overtime. This is a great spot for the Boston winning streak to come to an end as the Avalanche return home following a three-game roadtrip, losing the last two games in Montreal and Winnipeg. Also, Colorado is coming off a loss in its last home game against Anaheim after winning four of its previous five games at home. The Avalanche looks to avoid dropping three straight for the first time in 2014. Starting goalie Semyon Varlamov did not play against Montreal and Winnipeg and will get the start tonight. Colorado has two great contrarian situations on its side. First, we play on home teams after allowing three goals or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring four goals or more in three straight games. This situation is 51-22 (69.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on home teams after one or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after a seven-game unbeaten streak. This situation is 24-10 (70.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (56) Colorado Avalanche
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03-21-14 | Stephen Austin +6.5 v. VCU | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show |
Stephen F. Austin was going to be a sleeper pick last season in the NCAA Tournament after a 26-3 regular season but it was upset by Northwestern St. in the Southland Tournament. The Lumberjacks then lost to Stanford in the NIT and the goal heading into this season was simple - make it to the NCAA Tournament. After 28 consecutive wins, here they are. Stephen F. Austin has a motion offense that has five players averaging at least 9.6 ppg and an active man-to-man defense that is among the national leaders in turnover margin. While many will point to its weak schedule, that is not their fault and last season, besides taking Stanford to the wire, they defeated Tulsa, San Diego and Oklahoma. This season, they were tied with Texas at 60-60 with 3:10 left before losing. The Rams come in as a bit of a question mark, namely because they are a different team depending where they play. Take VCU off of its home floor and it is a very average team, going 11-8 on the highway this season. The pressure of VCU can cause a lot of problems for some teams but the Lumberjacks have a ton of depth to counter it and they don't turn the ball over as their 1.52 assist/turnover ratio can attest to. The Rams will be without Melvin Johnson, the A-10 conference's Sixth Man of the Year, who will miss at least this game after suffering a knee injury against George Washington this past Saturday. The Rams are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss. 10* (845) Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
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03-21-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers -5 | Top | 79-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
The Pacers are coming off a loss on Wednesday against the Knicks and they now return home in search of a much needed dominating performance, something that has not happened very much of late. After losing four straight games in the early part of March, Indiana went on to win its next four games before the loss against New York but it only covered three of those wins and it is now on a dreadful 3-16-1 ATS run over its last 20 games. While we did not win with them on Wednesday, I feel like we are getting a solid number on their home floor where they are 31-4 on the season, good for the best home record in the NBA. The Pacers have won 13 of 17 games this season coming off a loss and going back, they are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 games coming off a road loss. Chicago is coming off a win at Philadelphia, it second straight road win to move back to .500 on the highway. 10 of the 17 road wins however have come against teams that will not be in the playoffs and while this is a big game for them for their own playoff position, they are catching Indiana at a bad time. The game against the Bulls is the first of five consecutive, and six of the next seven, against teams with winning records and it needs to get off to a good start to avoid Miami creeping up on them as it sits three games back in the conference standings. The home team has won five straight in this series and the Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. 10* (804) Indiana Pacers
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03-21-14 | Oklahoma State -2.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 77-85 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
Oklahoma St. came into the season expected to make some noise and after a 15-2 start, the Cowboys were well on their way. A loss against Kansas by a bucket was the beginning of a downward spiral where they went on a 1-8 run that included seven straight losses as well as the suspension of Marcus Smart for three games. Upon his return, Oklahoma St. caught fire again, winning four straight games before losing the regular season finale at Iowa St. in overtime. They bowed out against Kansas in the Big XII Tournament, also in overtime, but this is a very dangerous team that can make a serious run despite being a number nine seed. There is also some added motivation after losing at home last season against Gonzaga by a point, one of only two home losses, and the Cowboys won 24 games last year but got knocked out in the opening round of the tournament. Gonzaga won the WCC regular season and tournament championships but the conference was especially weak this season. The Bulldogs played a weak schedule by their standards and own just three wins against current tournament teams, two against BYU and the other against New Mexico St., which won the watered down WAC. They have the size advantage here but that is not a great advantage as matching up with the athletic guards of Oklahoma St. will be a challenge. Gonzaga is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games away from home after two consecutive covers as a favorite while the Cowboys are 61-36 ATS as favorites under head coach Travis Ford. 10* (851) Oklahoma St. Cowboys
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03-21-14 | Tennessee -4 v. Massachusetts | Top | 86-67 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
It isn't very often you see a First Four play-in winner being favored in the second round but this is the case here. Tennessee defeated Iowa in overtime to advance to take on Massachusetts and the Volunteers are a team that matches up well here and I think are very underrated. We opted to not play on them against Iowa because the Hawkeyes were playing with a lot of emotion for head coach Fran McCaffrey and it showed. Now Tennessee heads to Raleigh and while it finished with 12 losses, most of those were good losses in they can be classified as such. The Volunteers lost 11 of those games by single digits, seven coming against current NCAA Tournament teams and they took Florida a long way in the SEC Tournament before losing by seven points. This is a very experienced team that is excited to be here after tow straight NIT appearances and a 30-point loss to Michigan in the NCAA Tournament three years ago. Massachusetts has been up and down team as after a great start, it has not played very well. Throughout the season, Massachusetts held opponents to just 42 percent shooting while forcing 13.5 tpg and excelled at turning defensive stops into transition baskets. Recently though, it has struggled to string together strong defensive performances, the same cannot be said for Tennessee which has one of the best defenses in the nation and has only gotten better as the season has progressed. The Minutemen are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (821) Tennessee Volunteers
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03-21-14 | Mercer +13 v. Duke | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
This is Mercer's first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 1985 and this is a very dangerous team. The Bears won the Atlantic Sun Tournament by beating Florida Gulf Coast, last year's Cinderella, and they come in with a lot of momentum. They are 16-3 over their last 19 games and while they hail from a small conference, they are no pushover. During the non-conference season, Mercer defeated Seton Hall and Mississippi while losing to Texas by just three points so it will be far from intimidated here. Last year, they defeated Florida St., Alabama and Tennessee so this year is no fluke. Laden with seniors, the Bears are efficient offensively, while shooting 39 percent from long range and get balanced scoring from six different players. Duke is Duke and will be overvalued no matter who it plays. The Blue Devils are very efficient as well and also shoot the long ball well but it is a matchup that can give them problems if the three-pointers are not falling at a high rate. Additionally, their defense has shown bad lapses at times and Mercer can take advantage. The Blue Devils are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall while the Bears are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games as underdogs. 10* (823) Mercer Bears
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03-20-14 | Washington Wizards v. Portland Trail Blazers -4.5 | Top | 103-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Portland is coming off a fortunate win over Milwaukee on Tuesday as it took overtime, and 22 points in the extra session, to get the job done. The Blazers are now 2-1 without LaMarcus Aldridge with the only loss coming by just a point against Golden St. they have been able to keep pace with Houston in the Western Conference as they trail the Rockets by a game and a half for the coveted fourth spot and home court advantage in at least the first round of the playoffs. Portland hits the road for a five-game east coast swing after this game so this one is big. The Blazers are 20-4 against the Eastern Conference this season with losses against Miami and Indiana which is no surprise and also a home loss against the Sixers in a game they clearly did not show up for. The fourth loss was at Washington by 10 points so they will be out for revenge tonight as well. Washington lost in overtime at Sacramento on Tuesday to fall to 1-5 ATS over their last six games. The Wizards remain over .500 on the road which is solid but while going 15-8 against the Eastern Conference, they are just 3-8 on the highway against teams from the west with two of those wins coming against teams sitting outside the playoff picture. Portland is 15-6 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and falls into a terrific situation where we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season that are outscoring opponents by between 3.0 and 7.0 ppg going up against teams that are between +/- 3 in scoring differential, after scoring 110 points or more two straight games. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (706) Portland Trailblazers
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03-20-14 | North Dakota State +3.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 80-75 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
Early action came in on the Bison and for good reason as they have a great shot at the upset here. North Dakota St. won the Summit League's regular season and tournament championships and of their 14 overall conference wins, nine came by double digits. They enter this game with the highest team field goal percentage in the entire nation at 50.9 percent and they are a Top 50 team in terms of scoring with 76.4 ppg. The Bison are one of the worst rebounding teams in the entire country but they could not have gotten a better first round matchup as the Sooners are undersized as well. This teams is extremely experienced with seniors, one that is good both inside and out, and will face a younger team that relies heavily on good shooting nights. The Sooners have faced tougher competition all year in the Big XII obviously, and are a highly effective offensive team but they are led by many underclassmen and have the same problems with size as the Bison as mentioned before. If Oklahoma is hot from the outside, it could win going away but that can be said for just about every team playing. The Bison are 35th in the RPI rankings which is their second-best since an appearance in the mid-20s earlier this year so this is a team flying under the radar. The Bison are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games while going 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring 60 points or less since 1997. 10* (737) North Dakota St. Bison
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03-20-14 | Dayton +6 v. Ohio State | Top | 60-59 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
The NCAA Tournament tips off on Thursday from Buffalo with Dayton playing Ohio St. The Flyers were a bubble team heading into Sunday but they received an at-large big and deservedly so as they are playing great right now. Despite a loss to St. Joes in the A-10 semifinals, the third loss this season to the Hawks, Dayton is 10-2 over its last 12 games and winning two of three games as an underdog. The offense is potent as the Flyers tend to get most of their scoring from the perimeter, shooting 37.8 percent from behind the arc, which is in the top 14% percent of NCAA teams this season, and four of their five starters are adept from three point range. They do not give the ball away as their 7.1 turnover percentage was a top 20 mark in the NCAA, while Ohio St.'s rating was similarly 20th. I'm not sold on Ohio St. when it has to cover a decent sized number as the Buckeyes are 4-10 ATS as a single-digit favorite while Dayton is 7-2 ATS as an underdog, winning six of those games outright. Dayton is 6-0 ATS in its six games away from home this season against teams outscoring opponents by eight or more ppg. Additionally, Ohio St. falls into a negative situation as we play against neutral court teams in a tournament as a favorite after failing to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (709) Dayton Flyers
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03-19-14 | Detroit Pistons +7.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
We won with Denver on Monday as the Nuggets won outright against the Clippers by 10 points as home underdogs. Now I feel they are overpriced on Wednesday. Denver has won three of its last four games overall including wins against the Clippers as mention and Miami on the road. The Nuggets have covered all four of those games but now they are in a role that has killed their backers for a while now as Denver is 5-14 ATS as a home favorite this season while going 3-11 ATS in 14 home games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, the Nuggets are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a losing road record. Detroit has dropped two straight games and is 3-12 over its last 15 games including going 0-6 on the road. Five of those losses were against teams either in the playoffs or still in the mix for a playoff spot but Denver is not in that group as the Nuggets trail eighth place Memphis by 9.5 games. While the Pistons have been horrendous as home underdogs, they are a solid 6-3 ATS this season when getting seven or more points and this is simply too many points with these teams being just 4.5 games apart from each other. The Pistons fall into a solid situation where we play against teams that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points going up against that opponent which is coming off a loss against a division rival. This situation is 85-41 ATS (67.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (615) Detroit Pistons
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03-19-14 | Indiana Pacers -2 v. New York Knicks | Top | 86-92 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Indiana has won four straight games but it has been far from dominating, covering just one of those games and those games were against some very poor teams including two against Philadelphia. After being one of the best cover teams in the NBA through the first half of the season, the Pacers are just 3-15-1 ATS over their last 19 games but that is giving us some solid value going into this one. Indiana has a three-game lead on Miami in the Eastern Conference and with the way New York is playing, it will have its full attention here. The Knick have won six straight games, going 5-1 ATS in the process. The last five wins have come against Utah, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston and Milwaukee, not exactly murder's row. They have had issues against the top teams as they are 2-10 ATS this season when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. Additionally, New York is 2-10 ATS as a home underdog and the Pacers fall into a solid contrarian situation as we play on teams failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 going up against an opponent after having covered five or six of their last seven games against the spread. This situation is 68-31 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (607) Indiana Pacers
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03-19-14 | Iona +8 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 88-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Motivation is the biggest factor when it comes to these lesser tournament games and as we saw last night, many teams considered much better than their opponent simply didn't show up, most notably St. John's. Tonight we have another example of a team that could still be in the dumps about playing in the NIT and that is Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs had another outstanding season with a 27-7 record but was left out of the NCAA Tournament. I say another because last season they were 26-6 following the WAC Tournament and were also left out of the Big Dance. A second straight rejection is not good for the mental state of the Bulldogs right now. Iona is disappointed for not being in the NCAA Tournament as well after losing to Manhattan in the MAAC Championship but the Gaels knew their fate right when that game ended and have had over a week to prepare, most important, mentally. The Gaels boast the fourth highest scoring offense in the country, averaging 83.5 ppg. They also rank in the top-20 in the nation in field goal percentage (48.7) and three-point field goal percentage (39.6) so they can keep up with the high flying Bulldogs here. "We didn't achieve the ultimate goal, which is very disappointing. We said if before the season it we didn't make the tournament with this team, we'll be disappointed, and we are," Tech coach Michael White said Sunday after the NIT selection show. "Still proud, though, of a lot of accomplishments. A lot of teams nationally are disappointed to not be in the tournament." That will show tonight. 10* (627) Iona Gaels
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03-19-14 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Toronto Maple Leafs +102 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Tampa Bay is clicking once again as it has won three straight games since suffering through a five-game losing streak. The Lightning are coming off a six-game homestand however and have not hit the highway since March 4th which puts them in a very vulnerable spot tonight. Toronto is the leader in the Wild Card race, four points ahead of both Columbus and Washington and five points ahead of Detroit. However, the Maple Leafs are right in the thick of grabbing a top seed as they are just three games out of third place and one team ahead of them is Tampa Bay which has just a one-point lead on Toronto so a regulation wins means it leapfrogs the Lightning. Toronto then faces Montreal at home two nights from now so it is in good position to make that move up. The Maple Leafs are back home after a five-game roadtrip, losing the last two games, so they are in rebound mode tonight. Toronto is 8-2 in its 10 home games this season after two or more consecutive losses while Tampa Bay is 4-16 in its last 20 games coming off three or more consecutive home wins. Additionally, the Lightning are 0-7 this season against teams averaging 2.85 or more gpg. We play on home favorites after a loss by one goal in their previous game going up against an opponent after scoring three goals or more in five straight games. This situation is 84-34 (71.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (52) Toronto Maple Leafs
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03-19-14 | Cal Poly SLO v. Texas Southern +4 | Top | 81-69 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Texas Southern is catching a good number here and there is no reason to think that it cannot win this game outright. The Tigers claimed the SWAC Tournament Championship with a win over Prairie View and are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2003. They come from a smaller conference so they are not well known but the Tigers have the best player on the floor in Aaric Murray who is 13th in the country in scoring at 21.2 ppg and 33rd in the nation in blocks at 2.53 rejections per game. His previous stops were at LaSalle and West Virginia so he can bang with the big boys and should not have much resistance here. Additionally, they are led by head coach Mike Davis who has taken teams to the tournament before including a trip to the National Championship in 2002 with Indiana and that type of experience is huge. A year ago, Texas Southern won the SWAC regular-season title but was unable to compete in the tournament because of a one-year NCAA postseason ban. This time around, the Tigers won three straight games and will take a nine-game winning streak into their fifth NCAA appearance in school history. Cal Poly is coming off some upsets to win the Big West Tournament after finishing the regular season with a 6-10 record while sitting 13-19 overall. The Mustangs are not particularly big, which is problem facing Murray, and are an inaccurate shooting team (33.5 percent from beyond the arc and 44.2 percent inside of it, the latter of which is in the nation
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03-18-14 | Utah v. St Mary's CA | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
While some may be surprised that St. Mary's is not a bigger favorite at home, it is for good reason. The Gaels are a very average team and their best win in conference play was against San Diego as they went 0-5 against Gonzaga and BYU, both of which are in the NCAA Tournament. They went 6-6 over their last 12 games with five of those losses coming by double-digits and while their 15-3 home record cannot be discounted, it is inflated with non-quality wins down the stretch. Utah meanwhile had a very solid season as it was considered an NCAA Tournament bubble team right up until its blowout loss against Arizona in the Pac 12 Tournament. An at-large bid was very unlikely and the Utes knew they were pretty much an NIT team no matter what. They were not expected to get a five seed though and they are using that as motivation. And that is a big part for teams playing in these lesser tournaments. This is the first postseason game for the program since 2009 while the Gaels have been to the NCAA Tournament the last two years and have not missed a postseason since 2006-07. "We know that we have a lot to play for," Utes guard Brandon Taylor said. "We want to keep playing as long as possible, and we
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03-18-14 | Toronto Raptors -2.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Typically we stay away from road favorites in the NBA unless the situation calls for it and that is the case here tonight. Toronto is coming off a loss at home on Sunday against Phoenix and it has been one of the best teams in recovering from a defeat in the league. The Raptors are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a loss while winning 13 of those games outright. Playing the role of a road chalk has not been an issue either as they are 6-3 straight up and against the number and they are well aware of what is going on behind them as Brooklyn is now just three games back. After losing six straight games and going 1-14 over a 15-game stretch, Atlanta has won its last four games but it hasn't exactly been the toughest of competition. A win at Charlotte last night was the best of the bunch and now playing with no rest is a tall order. The Hawks are 5-11 straight up and 6-10 against the number in the second of back-to-back games and going back, they are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games coming off consecutive wins. Toronto won the moist recent meeting last month at home by 21 points and while that brings in a revenge situation, it is actually not a favorable one for the Hawks. We play against home underdogs that are revenging a road loss of 20 points or more against opponent off a upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 87-49 ATS (64 percent) since 1996. 10* (523) Toronto Raptors
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03-18-14 | Minnesota Wild -111 v. NY Islanders | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
We made a bad call with Minnesota last night but we will come back with the Wild tonight. They have now dropped two straight games and five of their last six and their lead in the Western Conference Wild Card race is now down to just three points over Phoenix and five points over Dallas. Seven of Minnesota's next nine games are on the road and after this one, the next six are all against teams currently in the playoffs or against teams still in the mix which makes this game especially big. The offense has been held in check of late but tonight presents a great opportunity to bust out. The Islanders defeated Buffalo in their last game 4-1 on Saturday which snapped a three-game home losing streak. Allowing a single goal was a fluke as New York came in having allowed 41 goals over its previous 10 games (4.1 gpg) and the last two times it has allowed one goal or less, it allowed 6 and 4 goals in the very next game. Additionally, the Islanders are 1-7 against the moneyline in their last eight home games after scoring three goals or more in three straight games this season. Minnesota is 5-0 against the moneyline revenging a loss where opponent scored five or more goals this season and falls into a situation were we play on road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 when the money line is -100 to -150 coming off a road loss by two goals or more. This situation is 79-40 (66.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (3) Minnesota Wild
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03-18-14 | Mount Saint Mary's v. Albany NY -2.5 | Top | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
A pair of number 16 seeds square off tonight as Albany and Mount St. Mary's play in the early game to see which team will take on Florida on Thursday. While most know hardly anything about either team, it is an interesting matchup that will see a high octane offense go up against a very stingy defense and it is the latter that will prevail. The Mountaineers led the Northeast Conference in scoring offense with 76.3 ppg but are definitely a surprise to be here as they upset Wagner and Robert Morris in the Northeast Conference Tournament. They are one of just three teams in the NCAA Tournament with a negative offensive/defensive ratio. Albany meanwhile was also an underdog that won the America East Tournament as it took out top seed Vermont and second seed Stony Brook. The Great Danes finished second in the conference in defensive efficiency and that defense will be the difference here as Albany will look to control the pace and not give up easy baskets and many offensive rebounds. While they finished just 9-7 in the conference, five of those losses were by seven points or less and the Great Danes have the significant edge of experience. They were in the NCAA Tournament last year, defeating Vermont and Stony Brook along the way as well and put up a good fight against Duke in the second round. While the lines games have been few, Albany is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games after consecutive wins while covering its last sis games overall. 10* (532) Albany Great Danes
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03-17-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Denver Nuggets +5 | Top | 100-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The Clippers won again on Sunday, making it 11 straight wins and they are now just three games back of the Spurs for the top spot in the Western Conference. To no surprise, the public is all over them again tonight as Los Angeles is the biggest consensus on the NBA board and could very well be the spot that the winning streak comes to an end although we will still take the points here. In addition to winning 11 straight, the Clippers are 8-2-1 ATS over that stretch and while they have been cleaning up as road favorites of late, the value clearly resides with the home team. The last meeting here which took place last month, Los Angeles was favored by a point and a half and now because of the winning streak, they are being asked to lay four points more. Denver is back home following a five-game roadtrip that saw it go 2-3. We played against the Nuggets on Saturday but they were able to stay within the number despite trailing by 21 points. Coming back home will help as will the fact that they are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games against team with a winning percentage above .600. Denver has won two straight at home and it falls into a great situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (that are averaging 103 or more ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (514) Denver Nuggets
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03-17-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Brooklyn Nets -4.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The Nets had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with a loss at Washington as they blew an early double-digit lead. It was a disappointment because it came after their win over Miami and that momentum could not be carried through. The good news is that Brooklyn has gotten back into the Atlantic Division race thanks to not stringing together many losing streaks as after losing three straight back in January and February against Toronto, Oklahoma City and Indiana, the Nets have won their last six games following a loss. Additionally, they have covered the last five games following a defeat and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss against the number. This is the first of three straight home games where Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven. Phoenix is coming off a win on Sunday at Toronto which was its second straight win following a three-game losing streak. This is the third game in four days for the Suns which have won just four of 10 games when playing in the second of back-to-back games when the second game is on the road. Phoenix is now a game over .500 on the road and the win over the Raptors was the first on the road over a playoff bound team since the end of January. 10* (506) Brooklyn Nets
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03-17-14 | Minnesota Wild +168 v. Boston Bruins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
It has not been a great week and a half for Minnesota. After winning three straight games coming out of the Olympic break, the Wild went to Dallas and lost by a goal. But they were coming home for a four-game homestand and had a chance to turn things around but they dropped three of the four games, all in a shootout. While they have not been nearly as good on the road, they are getting an exceptional price here in a great bounceback situation. The Wild are 8-3 in their last 11 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Boston is red hot right now with wins in eight straight games including four straight games at home. That is putting the Bruins in the role of a bigger favorite than it should be as they are priced more here than they were in their last two home games despite now playing a team with more points than those previous two opponents. Minnesota falls into a great underdog situation as well as we play against teams against the moneyline in the second half of the season that are outscoring their opponents by 0.65 or more gpg, after allowing one goal or less in two straight games. This situation is 127-126 (50.2 percent) since 1996. You will notice that this is just a 50 percent situation but it is significant because it favors big underdogs and has netter over 62 units in that span. 10* (53) Minnesota Wild
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03-16-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Minnesota Timberwolves -7.5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Minnesota is on the outside looking in and while the chances of the Timberwolves getting into the playoffs are slim, they are still holding out hope. They fell to .500 with a loss at Charlotte on Friday and the schedule does them no favors as their next four games are against teams from the Western Conference that are all in playoff contention,. One of this is Memphis which Minnesota trails by six games for the eighth and final playoff spot so while it is big margin, it is doable. And the importance of this game is huge. Minnesota is 17-9 ATS this season as a single-digit favorite of three points or more while winning 19 of 31 gamers following a loss. Sacramento is coming off a loss in Chicago last night to fall to 2-4 on the roadtrip which thankfully for the Kings comes to an end after tonight. The two victories in this stretch came against Milwaukee and Philadelphia, the two worst teams in the NBA so even the poor record is skewed. This is the fourth game in six night for the Kings and that will show come tonight. Minnesota is 2412 ATS in its last 36 games following a double-digit loss and it falls into a great situation where we play against teams that are coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog going up against an opponent off an loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite. This situation is 40-10 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. 10* (884) Minnesota Timberwolves
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03-16-14 | San Jose Sharks v. NY Rangers -105 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
The Rangers are back home following a three-game roadtrip that concluded with a win in Winnipeg on Friday following two losses at Carolina and Minnesota. New York has been pretty average at home this season, going just 16-19 but I like the spot it is in here and it will be playing with some added motivation. Even though it was a while ago, the Rangers have not forgotten the first meeting this season that took place in San Jose as the Sharks won 9-2. It marked the most goals the Rangers had allowed in more than three years so it will get a chance for redemption here. San Jose is playing excellent as it has won five straight games following a win over the Islanders on Friday. While they have been solid on the road with a 19-16 record, the Sharks are 2-6 in their last eight road games against teams with a losing home record. Additionally, fatigue could play a big factor even though they were off last night as this is the third game in four days and the fourth game is six days. San Jose is 11-27 against the money line in its last 38 road games when playing its 4th game in seven days and it falls into a negative situation based on rest as we play against teams in the second half of the season that are playing their 3rd road game in four days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 109-53 (67.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (8) New York Rangers
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03-16-14 | Michigan State v. Michigan +3 | Top | 69-55 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
We played against Michigan the last two days as it has escaped twice in close games against Illinois and Ohio St. The Wolverines are now on the other side of the line as they are getting points in a game where I have them the slight favorites. They finished as the regular season champions which came along with a top seed and the Wolverines RPI of nine is the best in the conference with the Spartans sitting in third at number 21. The Spartans are looking to win their fourth Big Ten tournament and first since 2012, while the Wolverines are in search of their second-ever Big Ten tournament title and first since the inaugural league tourney in 1998. This is a double-revenge game for the Spartans which lost both regular season meetings and while that is motivation on their side, the Wolverines are talking about their own motivation and wanting to go out and sweep the three-game season series with their rivals. In addition, a win here and Michigan will claim one of the four number one seeds in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Saturday's win over the Badgers marked the first time the Spartans have won back-to-back since late January and while they are the healthiest they have been all season, they are publically overvalued. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (898) Michigan Wolverines
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03-15-14 | Baylor v. Iowa State -1 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
The Cyclones are coming off an upset of Kansas on Friday and they head into the Big XII Championship with a lot of momentum as well as being in a very favorable spot. It has been an up and down season for Iowa St. but it is back on the upside and just at the right time. The Bears are coming off a blowout win over Texas which was their sixth straight win overall thanks to going 12-24 from long range but now they are playing their fourth game in four days. Iowa St.'s offense is rolling right now and I do not see the Baylor defense showing much resistance. The Bears are allowing opponents to shoot 48.6 percent outside of Waco and after two strong performances against Oklahoma and Texas, expect a regression. Playing four games in four days is tough enough but it is even tougher on a defense that tries to slow down a very fast paced offense. Add to the fact that the Cyclones were held to 61 points in the most recent meeting at Baylor and they will be out to push it even more. Iowa St. has a much higher RPI but its 4-12 ATS run is keeping this number within reason and it is one that the Cyclones will cover tonight. 10* (544) Iowa St. Cyclones
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03-15-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Atlanta Hawks -6 | Top | 92-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
After a 1-14 run, the Hawks have won consecutive games for the first time since the beginning of February. Wins over Utah and Milwaukee were hardly impressive and they were far from dominating as Atlanta failed to cover both of them but I am expecting a big effort from the Hawks tonight. Despite being seven games under .500, the Hawks are holding onto the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference, three and a half games ahead of the surging Knicks which host Milwaukee this afternoon. After this, six of the next seven games are against playoff contending teams which makes this a big game for Atlanta. Denver has won its last two games including a huge upset last night in Miami and the Nuggets have not won three consecutive games since early January. They have won consecutive road games on three other occasions this season but the only other time they followed up with another road game, it resulted in a loss at Cleveland. Denver is 2-8 straight up and ATS when playing with no rest including going 1-5 in the second of back-to-back road games. Additionally, Denver is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games in the second half of the season when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499. Look for a big letdown tonight. 10* (506) Atlanta Hawks
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03-15-14 | Connecticut +8.5 v. Louisville | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Louisville is rolling right now as it has won four straight games including the first two games in the AAC Tournament by an incredible 90 points. That type of domination is coming at the perfect time as the Cardinals head into the NCAA Tournament in hopes of defending their National Championship. While they have not had a test the last two days, that changes tonight as Connecticut will be more prepared that it was in the first meeting that took place last Saturday. The Huskies shot just 29.4 percent from the floor including going a horrid 3-22 from long range as they were thumped by 33 points in the regular season finale for both teams. Revenge is not a big factor in those conference tournament games with everything at stake but Connecticut will be playing with a chip on its shoulder and that last result coupled with the two recent Louisville blowouts has added some great value to this number. In addition, the Huskies have lost the last four meetings by 33, 12, 15 and 21 points so we all know the public will be riding the Cardinals hard and that has forced this line to be higher than it should be. 10* (537) Connecticut Huskies
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03-15-14 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Michigan | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
Michigan escaped with a one point win over Illinois Friday to advance to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. The Wolverines have now won six straight games but they failed to cover yesterday as they continue to struggle to put teams away. As mentioned in the Illinois analysis, the Wolverines went 6-0 ATS when favored by more than 12 points but just 5-10 ATS when favored by less than that following the spread loss against the Illini. Ohio St. escaped as well as it rallied from an 18-point deficit against Nebraska to pull out the improbable win. While some will point to a letdown factor, I think the Buckeyes feed off that victory and carry it into today. They have dropped five straight games against the number but it is important to note that they were favored in every one of those games and on the season, Ohio St. is 3-0 ATS as underdogs, winning the last two outright over Iowa and Wisconsin with the lone loss coming at Michigan St. in overtime. Despite a five-game difference in the Big Ten standings, these teams are very close in the RPI and are separated by just a half-game in their records against teams in the RPI top 100. While it will be an upset because of the spread, an outright Buckeyes win would be far from a surprise. 10* (527) Ohio St. Buckeyes
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03-14-14 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -2.5 | Top | 44-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
We head to the MAC on Friday night and we will be backing Toledo at a very favorable price in a very favorable spot. The Rockets finished 14-4 in the conference and 26-5 overall, the most victories in the history of the program, and they ended the season as the highest ranked team in the RPI in the MAC at number 37. The second best team, Eastern Michigan, is a distant number 82 but we are hardly seeing that variance in this line for tonight. The Rockets have not played March 8th but that time off is not a detriment and in this matchup, it is a big advantage. Eastern Michigan snuck by Buffalo last night after sneaking by Northern Illinois on Wednesday. That makes this the third game in three nights for the Eagles and going back to last weekend, this is their fifth game in seven days. That is a huge workload in a short amount of time and a lot of minutes have been logged. Toledo, which was the only team to post a win over every school in the MAC, went 6-4 against the RPI top 100 while the Eagles went just 4-9 against the RPI top 100. They were one of only two teams in the conference that had a winning record yet lost 10 games away from home. That is extended to 11 after tonight. 10* (860) Toledo Rockets
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03-14-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz +9.5 | Top | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The Clippers have won nine straight games and with that comes public action which forces inflated lines and that is what we have here tonight. Los Angeles is coming off a big revenge win against Golden St. on TNT Thursday and that automatically spells a letdown here. That win improved the Clippers to 28-5 at home which is the best home record in the Western Conference but things have been much different on the road which is the case for most teams in the NBA. Los Angeles is 18-15 on the highway which is very respectable and while it has won four straight on the road, I do not like the number it is laying here. Consider the Clippers were favored by close to the same amount against Milwaukee not long ago and Utah is nine games better than the Bucks. The Jazz are coming off two straight losses at home to fall four games under .500 at home. They are in the midst of a rough stretch but most of the damage came on the road and prior to the two recent home losses, Utah had won 11 of its previous 17 at home including impressive wins over Phoenix, Miami and Oklahoma City. These teams met in Los Angeles last month and while it sets up a revenge spot for Utah, the line value is just as important as the Clippers are favored by only four points less now despite the venue change. That is not a sufficient line adjustment. The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while going 13-5 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season. 10* (818) Utah Jazz
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03-14-14 | Anaheim Ducks -110 v. Colorado Avalanche | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
It has been a rough ride for Anaheim as it has dropped four straight games including a 7-2 blowout loss at Calgary last time out on Wednesday. The Ducks are now four points behind St. Louis for first place in the Western Conference and are tied with San Jose with 93 points. Even more important is the fact that Colorado is just two points back so a win here will push Anaheim all the way back to fourth place in the Western Conference because of tiebreakers. With a game at Los Angeles tomorrow night and the Kings coming off a home loss last night, tonight is a must win for Anaheim. Colorado has won two straight games including a slight upset of Chicago at home on Wednesday. The Avalanche are 4-2 at home since the Olympic break but both losses came against powers from the west in St. Louis and Los Angeles. On the season, they are 23-12 at home while Anaheim is 19-13 on the road and those two records are right in line so this comes down to which team will want it more and the Ducks fit the bill. Here, we play on road teams in the second half of the season when the money line is -100 to -150 coming off a road loss by three goals or more. This situation is 226-134 (62.8 percent) since 1996. Additionally, the Ducks are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a loss of three or more goals. 10* (15) Anaheim Ducks
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03-14-14 | Seton Hall v. Providence -2 | Top | 74-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Seton Hall has escaped twice in the first two rounds of the Big East Tournament but that ends on Friday. The Pirates blew a big lead against Butler but held on for a one point victory over the Bulldogs on Wednesday and then controlled the game throughout against Villanova only to lose the lead but pulled it out on a last second shot. It was obviously a big upset and even more so considering the fact they came into the tournament on a 2-7 run. Providence opened up a big lead on St. John's and was able to hold off a big rally by the Red Storm to advance. It was a huge win as the Friars are now projected to make the NCAA Tournament as one of the last four teams in however a loss here could knock them back out so this is another big game. Providence is 14-1 this season against teams ranked outside the RPI top 100 and that only loss happened to come against Seton Hall back on December 31st by a single point at home in overtime. The Friars got their revenge two months later in New Jersey and that record against non-elite teams is impressive enough to get them one more victory and make the NCAA Tournament nearly guaranteed. 10* (862) Providence Friars
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03-14-14 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina -1 | Top | 80-75 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
This one wets up great for North Carolina. Pittsburgh is coming off a blowout win over Wake Forest in the second round of the ACC Tournament and it was hardly a surprise. The Demon Deacons rolled over Notre Dame in the first round by shooting 61 percent so a regression was certainly expected. After starting the season 16-1, the Panthers went 4-6 in their next 10 games before closing with wins in three of their last four games. It was hardly elite competition though and two of those came in overtime. Three teams in the ACC went winless against RPI top 25 teams and one of those was Pittsburgh which went 0-6 against those elite teams. Conversely, North Carolina went 20-5 against teams ranked outside the RPI Top 25. After putting together a 12-game winning streak, the Tar Heels lost the season finale at Duke as the Blue Devils were off a loss as well as playing with revenge. North Carolina is now on a four-game non-cover streak which adds value here as we are getting a lower than expected number and I do not see the Tar Heels bowing out this early as they have come together late in the season. The Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record while the Tar Heels are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (824) North Carolina Tar Heels
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03-14-14 | Illinois +8 v. Michigan | Top | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
We won with Illinois on Thursday and we will back the Illini again Friday for a lot of the same reasons. As mentioned yesterday, the Illini closed the regular season with four wins in their last five games including impressive road wins at Michigan St. and Iowa. The difference has been a chance in the starting lineup that has mixed freshmen and veterans to create a more balanced group and it has worked. The lone loss came against Michigan by 31 points which came right after the Michigan St. win so the Illini can be given a mulligan there and don't think they have not forgotten that beatdown suffered against the Wolverines. Michigan comes in riding a five-game winning streak and claimed the Big Ten title by three games but I'm not sold completely on them being a dominant team against the better teams. The Wolverines went 6-0 ATS when favored by more than 12 points but just 5-9 ATS when favored by less than that. I think we are catching Illinois peaking at the right game and we are getting a good number with them in a game they can surely win outright. 10* (829) Illinois Fighting Illini
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03-13-14 | Boise State -7 v. Nevada | Top | 75-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Boise St. has to win the MWC Tournament for a chance to get back into the NCAA Tournament and while this conference is tough at the top with San Diego St. and New Mexico, the Broncos have the team to make such a run. It was a disappointing season for Boise St. as despite picking up its 20th win last night, it went just 9-9 in the conference during the regular season despite bringing back the most experienced team in the country that made the tournament last year as all five starters came back. The Broncos brought back 92.4 percent of last season's scoring output, 90 percent of the minutes played and 157 of 160 starts from 2012-13. Last night, the Broncos jumped ahead of San Jose St. 25-0 and led by as many as 42 points and a win like that is big because the starters did not play many minutes which will benefit them with a quick turnaround. Nevada was a very early surprise in the conference as it opened 7-2 but then things fell apart as the Wolf Pack went on to lose six of their next seven games before winning their last two regular season games. They were able to grab the third seed but they are a very weak third seed as their 15-16 overall record can attest to. Here we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss as a favorite of seven points or more, playing their 2nd road game in three days. This situation is 45-17 ATS (72.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (775) Boise St. Broncos
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03-13-14 | San Jose Sharks v. Columbus Blue Jackets +119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
San Jose hits the road following a three-game home winning streak and while the Sharks have been decent on the road, they have been nowhere near as good as they have been at home. They are 17-16 on the highway which is very respectable but they are favored here despite Columbus posting a 19-13 record at home. Overall, the Blue Jackets are 18 points worse than San Jose but that all comes down to the home/road splits the other way where the Sharks have 54 home points compared to 33 road points for Columbus. The Blue Jackets are coming off a win on Tuesday against Detroit and that made it five straight wins on home ice and going back, they are 12-6 in 18 games this season coming off a home win while going 12-3 in their last 15 games following any sort of win. San Jose is 1-7 in its last eight road games after winning four of its last five game and falls into a negative situation where we play against road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 against the moneyline after having won four of their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 117-68 (63.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (54) Columbus Blue Jackets
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03-13-14 | Miami (Fla) v. NC State +2 | Top | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
It has been a very streaky season for NC State. The Wolfpack won seven straight games between November and December then went on a 2-5 run followed by a 5-1 run and then a 1-4 run. Since then, they have won two straight games including an impressive win at Pittsburgh so they could be in the midst of another positive streak. They are the better team in this matchup, have the higher power ranking and have played the tougher schedule yet are getting points on Thursday. Some will point out the 15-point home loss to Miami but that came after NC State lost a heartbreaker in overtime against north Carolina and the Wolfpack did indeed win the first meeting against the Hurricanes in Miami. The Hurricanes are coming off a win against Virginia Tech in the opening round and t was unimpressive to say the least. They had to rally for the win and were fortunate that the Hokies went just 9-17 from the charity stripe. NC State had trouble with the elite teams, going 6-0 against the RPI top 25 but 19-6 against everyone else. While rest usually isn't a huge factor, the fact that Miami has to play the whole 40 minutes against the Hokies gives NC State a big edge there as well. With an RPI of 63, the Wolfpack are still in the bubble and would need a run but it starts here first. Wrong team favored. 10* (702) NC State Wolfpack
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03-13-14 | Houston Rockets v. Chicago Bulls +3 | Top | 87-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
We played on Chicago Tuesday against the Spurs and a slow start cost the Bulls as they were outscored by 22 points in the first quarter but made a game of it late only to just fall short. I don't expect another slow start like that and Chicago is in good position for a rebound at home. The Bulls continue to be one of the biggest surprises in the NBA and many expected them to fold once Derrick Rose went down again and was lost for the season. Instead, Chicago is a game and a half behind Toronto for third place in the Eastern Conference but more important, it is a game and a half ahead of Brooklyn and keeping at least that fourth slot is huge for the first round of the playoffs. The Bulls are 17-11 following a loss this season including going 12-2 ATS in their last 14 gamers following a loss and have won their last two home games immediately following a home loss. Houston lost at Oklahoma City on Tuesday and we will play against the Rockets once again as that letdown can still be affecting them. They have been solid on the road with an 18-13 record and have been even better against the Eastern Conference, going 6-3 but they own only one quality road win and that was against Washington. Houston is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games while Chicago is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700. Additionally, the Bulls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games revenging a loss of 10 points or more this season. 10* (692) Chicago Bulls
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03-13-14 | Providence +5.5 v. St John's | Top | 79-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
This is a bigger than expected number as I have this one pegged at just a one-point spread and in reality, it could be even. The linesmakers have adjusted this line based on the fact this is where St. John's plays some of its home games but this is far from a true home edge with fans of many other teams taking part in this one. Providence and St. John's come in with identical records overall, identical records in the Big East and split the regular season meetings so this definitely has the feel of one of those games that can come down to the last possession. We played against the Friars in their last game at Creighton but that was a big revenge game on the Bluejays as well as it being Senior Night so we can chalk that up as a win for the home team. St. John's has been rolling along with wins in 11 of its last 14 games which is also playing a role in this number but at this point, that should not make a difference. While the Red Storm have won 14 of 18 games when favored, they are just 4-8 ATS as a single-digit favorite while going 6-15 ATS in their last 21 non-home games after having won five or six of their last seven games. Providence can easily win this outright but we will gladly take the points. 10* (739) Providence Friars
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03-13-14 | Indiana v. Illinois +3 | Top | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
The Illini opened with a 7-0 record and then glided to a 13-2 record which got them into the top 25 and then the wheels fell off. Illinois lost by 25 points at Wisconsin and that was the start of an eight-game losing streak before it was finally able to win again. But things are different now as the Illini closed the regular season with four wins in their last five games including impressive road wins at Michigan St. and Iowa. The difference has been a chance in the starting lineup that has mixed freshmen and veterans to create a more balanced group and it has worked. Indiana limps into the Big Ten Tournament with two straight losses and last year's success is a distant memory. The Hoosiers do have some impressive wins, but those were at home and on the highway, they are 3-10 on the season and while the locale here is somewhat close to campus, it can not be considered home. Illini head coach Jim Groce is 8-0 ATS in road games in first round tournament games and his team falls into a great situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss scoring less than 60 points, off a road win by three points or less. This situation is 37-9 ATS (80.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (706) Illinois Fighting Illini
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03-12-14 | Air Force +7 v. Fresno State | Top | 59-61 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
Fresno St. opened Mountain West Conference action by going 1-7 and then something suddenly clicked as the bulldogs caught fire and went on to win eight of their last 10 games to finish at .500 in the conference. Two of those early losses were in overtime to things could have been even better. Fresno St. brings in a 10-1 ATS run and that is certainly a reason why nearly three-quarters of the early action has come in on the Bulldogs despite them laying a rather large number on a neutral floor. During this recent ATS hot streak, they were favored only four times and times it was against 1-17 San Jose St. I think this price is simply too much considering they were laying the same amount to Air Force when they were at home. The Falcons finished 6-12 in the conference but they picked up a big overtime win against Boise St. in their season finale which brings in some needed momentum. They went just 4-8 away from home but they went 8-3 against the number in those games and that is most important to us here especially when seven of those wins came within the conference. Air Force lost both meetings against the Bulldogs this season but it wasn't because of matchup disadvantaged but more because of turnovers and a lack of free throw attempts. Air Force went 9-4 ATS this season as an underdog of five points or more and looking to avoid a season sweep is a big motivator which only adds to the underdog value on Wednesday. 10* (647) Air Force Falcons
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03-12-14 | Denver Nuggets v. Orlando Magic +1.5 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
I believe the wrong team is favored here with a lot of that reasoning based on home/road splits. Orlando is the worst road team in the NBA with a 4-30 record but it is a much more respectable 15-16 at home. The Magic have been playing even better of late as they are 7-2 over their last nine home games losing only to Houston and Memphis, both of which are in a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Denver hails from that conference as well but it is far from strong, especially on the road where it is 11-20 compared to going 16-16 at home. The Nuggets have dropped eight of their last nine games on the highway with the only win coming at Milwaukee. Additionally, they are just 2-7 ATS in those games. Orlando lost the first meeting in Denver by 26 points which is its second worst road loss of the season so there will be some added motivation for the Magic. Denver is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season and despite playing a weaker conference, it is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against the Eastern Conference. Conversely, the Magic are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record while going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Additionally, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games following a road loss, winning the last four outright. While neither team will be around for the postseason, the Magic continue to play hard in front of their home fans and they will get their revenge tonight. 10* (608) Orlando Magic
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03-12-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Washington Wizards -4.5 | Top | 98-85 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
We played against Washington in its last game as it lost on the road at Miami. It was catching the Heat on a three-game losing streak and that was one of the toughest situations it could be in. The Wizards are now back home looking to gain ground on Chicago as they trail the Bulls by just a game and a half for that coveted fourth spot in the Eastern Conference which comes with home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Admittedly, Washington has not been a great home team as it is just 16-15 on the season but since beating Miami back on January 15th, it has gone 9-6 over its last 15 home games with two of those losses coming against two Western Conference playoff teams. This is a good number for the Wizards and they have prospered all season with a 7-3 ATS record when favored by less than five points. Charlotte trails Washington by just three and a half games so this is a big game for the Bobcats as well but they are still in very good position for a playoff spot as they are ahead of ninth place Detroit by five games. They have been outstanding at home with seven straight wins but the road has not been as kind as they are 1-5 over their last six games on the highway. On top of that, the Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record. Here, we play against underdogs that are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more going up against an opponent coming off a road loss. This situation is 92-51 ATS (64.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (610) Washington Wizards
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03-12-14 | Butler v. Seton Hall -1.5 | Top | 50-51 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
This is a quick rematch between Butler and Seton Hall as they faced each other in the final game of the regular season, a 71-54 home win by the Bulldogs. They actually won both meetings this season which equated to exactly half of their total wins in the Big East showing how much of a struggle it was. Winning the first two meetings without much trouble would seem to put the Bulldogs in great position here but that is not the case. The Pirates had two horrible games from the floor and it isn't because the Butler defense is good because it isn't as it is ranked 245th in the nation in field goal percentage defense. Seton Hall is far from the best shooting team around but it should be able to top both of those first two games. Close losses were the difference for Seton Hall as it lost four conference games by a single point, three of which were on the road including the most recent one talking place at Creighton. Turn those around and the Pirates are an above .500 team in the Big East and this after playing the third toughest conference schedule. Beating a team three times in one season is difficult and we have already seen numerous teams fail at it and I expect Seton Hall to get its revenge here. The Pirates are 6-0 ATS in their last six games away from home revenging a loss and 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home following a double-digit conference loss. Butler meanwhile is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after two consecutive covers as a favorite. 10* (656) Seton Hall Pirates
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03-12-14 | Washington +5.5 v. Utah | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
The Pac 12 is expected to get seven teams into the NCAA Tournament unless one of the bottom five teams makes a magical run and Washington is capable of such a run, similar to what Utah did last year. The Huskies and Utes both come in with 9-9 records during the regular season yet this line is not a reflection of that and while Washington has just as good of a chance of winning this game, we will gladly take the generous amount of points. The Huskies won three of their final four games and they can ride that momentum into something special as they have the talent and experience to break out from what was considered a disappointing season. Utah posted 20 wins during the season but one loss hurt them greatly. The Utes, with a win over Stanford in the final regular season game, would have secured a bye into Thursday's quarterfinal. But like so many of their losses during league play, one or two possessions sent them to a close defeat and sent them from third to eighth. Like Washington, they were great at home and bad on the road and their overall record was padded with some cupcake wins as they schedule rank of 116th was worst in the conference and by a lot. Both teams won on their home floor during the season series so with both now on the road, it is a wash. The underdog has covered the all four meetings in this series in Pac 12 play and I expect that to continue here. 10* (637) Washington Huskies
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03-11-14 | Houston Rockets v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
After snapping its three-game losing streak with three wins at home, the Thunder have now reverted back and have dropped their last two games including an embarrassing loss against the Lakers on the road as 12-point favorites. The last two games were both on the road and I am expecting a big rebound on Tuesday at home before a rematch with the Lakers on Thursday but despite the recent loss to Los Angeles, there is no way Oklahoma City is looking ahead to that game. Wins are of the utmost importance right now as the Thunder trail the Spurs by a half-game in the Western Conference and the upcoming schedule is not easy with 10 of their last 16 games taking place on the road. At 26-6, Oklahoma City needs to continue to take care of business at home. Houston is one of the hotter teams in the NBA as it has won five straight games with three of the last four coming against Miami, Indiana and Portland. Those were at home however and while the Rockets have been solid on the road, they have struggled against the better teams on the highway and are catching the Thunder at the worst time. While they are 8-3 at home against the NBA's top ten, they are just 5-7 on the road and they have played only three such teams on the road in 2014, losing two, so the recent schedule has been soft. Here, we play on teams that are coming off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1996. Also, Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS as a favorite of fewer than five points this season while going 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. 10* (562) Oklahoma City Thunder
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03-11-14 | Boston Celtics v. Indiana Pacers -11 | Top | 83-94 | Push | 0 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
The Pacers are on their worst run of the season as they have lost four straight games which is their longest losing streak since dropping four straight games in March of 2012. they avoided a fifth straight loss then with a blowout win at home and I am expecting the same to happen here. Indiana has been even worse at the betting window as it is on runs of 0-7 ATS, 1-10-1 ATS and 5-17-1 ATS but in the midst of these putrid runs, it is a good time to buy the Pacers low. Indiana remains a game ahead of Miami in the Eastern Conference as it is even in the loss column while two up in the win column. Boston has won two straight games and went 3-2 on its recent five-game homestand while cashing four of those five tickets. The road has been a real issue however as the Celtics are 8-22 on the season including a 3-15 run with two of those wins coming against Milwaukee and Philadelphia which we can barely even count as wins. One of those defeats was a 25-point thumping at Indiana and while Boston played well in the follow up meeting, that was at home. The Celtics are 2-18 against teams ranked in the top ten in the NBA power rankings. The Pacers falls into a solid contrarian situation as we play on teams that has failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 games going up against an opponent after having covered five or six of their last seven games. This situation is 68-30 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Indiana is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games after a loss by 10 points or more while the Celtics are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (552) Indiana Pacers
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03-11-14 | Nashville Predators v. Buffalo Sabres +103 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
We won with Nashville last night but we has to sweat it out after the Predators blew a 3-0 lead but were able to hold off Ottawa in overtime. That presents us with a great opportunity to go against them tonight as this is now a letdown spot with a possible lookahead to a game at Chicago next time out. That win snapped a four-game losing streak for Nashville as well as a two-game road losing streak. The Predators are now 4-9 over their last 13 games with all four of those wins coming by just one goal, two of which took place in overtime. Goalie Pekka Rinne got the win last night, his fourth straight start, but will have tonight off and is being replaced by Carter Hutton who has a 2.85 GAA this season including a 3.13 GAA over his last five starts. Buffalo has dropped two straight games including a 2-1 loss against Chicago at home on Sunday but it is in a good spot here as Nashville has dropped its last four games when playing with no rest. That loss to the Blackhawks snapped a three-game home winning streak which included victories against San Jose and Boston and the home scoring has definitely improved. Buffalo has scored three goals or more in eight of its last 11 home games and the last two times they did not, the Sabres faced two of the best goalies in the league in Marc-Andre Fleury and Corey Crawford. They also fall into a solid situation as we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .300 or worse when the money line is -100 to -150 after having lost three of their last four games, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 69-29 (70.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (56) Buffalo Sabres
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03-11-14 | Wisc-Milwaukee +6 v. Wright State | Top | 69-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
With Wisconsin-Milwaukee knocking out top seed Green Bay and Wright St. beating No. 2 seed Cleveland St. the same day, it left the third-seeded Raiders as the highest remaining seed and thus host of the title game. It is the first time the Horizon League has relocated its Championships between semifinal and final rounds so the travel is the same for both sides. The Raiders obviously have the edge of playing at home but the Panthers have not been daunted of the road this season as they are 13-7 on the highway while going 13-5-1 ATS in those lined games. No one gave Milwaukee a chance in this tournament let alone the season as it was picked last in the preseason conference predictions. Just two weeks ago, the Panthers were reeling after their fourth consecutive loss, a 80-58 home defeat to Illinois-Chicago, which had lost 17 straight and was winless in the league. Since then, the Panthers have won four straight games and brings in a great attitude of the underdog killer. There is plenty of motivation as well as After Cleveland St. lost to Wright St. in the semifinals, and before Milwaukee upset Green Bay, Cleveland St. coach Gary Waters said, "If Milwaukee some miraculous way should win tonight, they're going home and they (Wright State) are going to the NCAAs." Wright St. is 13-2 at home but it is just 5-6 against the number and the Raiders are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games coming off a conference win while the Panthers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games coming off three straight conference wins. Like we saw last night with the three conference championships, these games tend to be close and I am expecting a similar outcome here. 10* (573) Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers
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03-10-14 | Los Angeles Kings v. Calgary Flames +148 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Los Angeles is red hot right now and that has given us value on the home underdog. The Kings have won seven straight games including all six games since the break following a win yesterday in Edmonton. They have won four straight on the road to improve to three games over .500 on the highway but they are just 1-4 in their last five in the second of back-to-back road games. Los Angeles has allowed just five goals in its last five games and all of those were started by Jonathan Quick between the pipes but he is expected to have the night off. Martin Jones has made only three starts in 2014 and has allowed 4, 5 and 5 goals so Calgary is in good shape. The Flames are coming off a loss in Vancouver on Saturday which snapped a two-game winning streak, both coming at home. They are 7-1 in their last eight home games with the lone loss coming against the Kings 2-0 and I like the revenge angle here. These teams played here less than two weeks ago and the Kings closed as a -137 favorite and for this rematch, they are favored by as much as -170 in some places so you can see the tremendous value difference here. Here, we play on home teams against the money line after one or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after a seven-game unbeaten streak. This situation is 24-8 (75%) over the last five seasons. 10* (12) Calgary Flames
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03-10-14 | St Mary's CA +7 v. Gonzaga | Top | 54-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
St. Mary's and Gonzaga is the epic series in the WCC but it has been far from competitive over the last two years. The Bulldogs have rolled to two regular season sweeps, winning by five and 17 points last season, while also winning the WCC Championship by 14 points, and winning by 22 and 28 points this season. Going by those results alone shows Gonzaga will have no problem tonight with the Gaels but I am going against that as there is more to it than that. St. Mary's shot the horrible in the two regular season meetings, connecting on just 27.3 percent of its shots while making just 27 field goals combined. Obviously those numbers will have to improve and they will as the Gaels are a much better shooting team than what was on display there. Despite the Gaels struggle, the long ball is something that the Gaels typically excel at as Stephen Holt and Kerry Carter both shoot over 40 percent from three-point land while James Walker III shoots over 35 percent. We also need to take a look at this line as it is inflated due to the season results. Gonzaga was getting a point in the last meeting while favored by 7.5 points in the home meeting which would make the Bulldogs a 3-3.5-point favorite on a neutral floor but the line has jumped all the way up to seven points so clearly the value lies with the Gales. Revenge comes into play as the 28-point victory by Gonzaga in the last meeting was the largest margin of victory by either team in the series since the Bulldogs posted a 105-65 victory in the 2001 WCC Championship quarterfinals. Gonzaga is 5-13 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season and it will be in for a bigger than expected fight tonight. 10* (517) St. Mary's Gaels
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03-10-14 | Nashville Predators +130 v. Ottawa Senators | Top | 4-3 | Win | 130 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
After winning its first game after the break, Nashville has dropped four straight games, all coming at home where it managed a mere three goals total over that stretch. This is the Predators first road game in over a month but in this case, I think it will do them very good. Five of their last seven losses on the road have come by way of overtime or in a shootout so despite the struggles, they have been playing good enough to win. With these teams separated by just five points and Nashville coming from the much stronger conference, I think this line is way too high. Ottawa is coming off a win last time out as it defeated Winnipeg on the road to make it a 2-2 roadtrip. The Senators have actually been a better road team than home team this season and their 13 home wins are sixth fewest in the entire league. The Senators are 7-14 as home favorites while going 1-7 after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. Nashville falls into a contrarian situation where we play on road teams against the money line with a winning percentage between .401 and .499 after four or more consecutive losses, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 43-28 (60.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (3) Nashville Predators
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03-10-14 | William & Mary +4.5 v. Delaware | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
William & Mary is coming off an upset over Towson on Sunday to advance to the CAA Championship game tonight but it wasn't a huge upset as the Tribe have been solid all season long. They had dropped both regular season meetings with the Tigers but were able to win the third meeting and they will have a chance to duplicate that tonight. William & Mary lost at Delaware in the first meeting by just five points but were clobbered at home by 15 points in the rematch as the Blue Hens could not miss from the floor. Since that loss, the Tribe have gone 8-3 and while there is no lack of motivation in these games in trying to advance to the NCAA Tournament, this is their third shot in seven years to win the CAA Tournament and advance to the Big Dance for the first time ever. Delaware was clearly the best team in the conference this season as it posted a 14-2 record with losses coming against Towson and Drexel. The Blue Hens have dominated both tournament games so far but playing Hofstra and Northeastern did not provide them with an big tests. The Tribe are ranked fifth in the country in three-point shooting but that was actually their downfall in the two meetings with Delaware as they went just 20-56 from long range. They have shot much better in this tournament at Baltimore Arena, going 17-34 and players are actually saying the shooting background fits them well compared to the much bigger Richmond Coliseum where the tournament used to be played. William & Mary is 9-2 ATS this season as a single digit underdog while going 6-2 ATS in its last eight games against teams with a winning record including 5-1 ATS away from home. 10* (515) William & Mary Tribe
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03-10-14 | Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Miami is coming off another loss on Sunday, its third straight, as it fell at Chicago in overtime. The Heat blew a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Bulls as the offense managed only 19 points in that final period and then followed that up with just two points in overtime. Now Miami will be out to avoid its first four-game losing streak since March of 2011 so expect to see a full out effort tonight. Back in 2012, Miami lost three straight road games and then came back home to post a 22-point win over San Antonio. The Heat then lost three straight Boston in the playoffs but followed that up with a 19-point win. They avoided a three-game losing streak last season and this season, they have lost three straight once and followed that up with a 15-point win. Adding even more incentive is that Miami will be out for payback following a 17-point loss in Washington in January. The Wizards have won two straight games and eight of their last nine games so they clearly are playing exceptional right now but they are catching Miami at the worst time possible. Even though they have won five straight road games, only one of those came against a decent opponent which was in Toronto and overall, Washington is just 5-16 against teams ranked in the top ten in the NBA power rankings. This line came out late as Miami will be without Dwyane Wade tonight who is taking the night off to rest but the Heats have won three straight without him in the lineup and with LeBron James coming off his two worst back-to-back games of the season, we should see him take this one over himself. 10* (504) Miami Heat
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03-09-14 | Indiana Pacers -1.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
We won with Dallas and lost with Indiana on Friday so we are backing the Pacers once again as they look to snap their three-game losing streak. The Pacers have also dropped six straight against the number and I feel that is adding to the value coupled with its losing skid. The Pacers were favored by nine points in the first meeting at home and lost by eight points so it sets up a revenge situation as well even though they are not in need of any more motivation. Indiana has a game and a half lead on Miami for first place in the Eastern Conference but that is three games in the win column which makes a big difference as opposed to games in the loss column. Indiana is still a solid 12-3 following a loss this season despite the recent skid. Dallas is coming off a closer than expected win over Portland as it needed a late run to hold off the Blazers after squandering a 30-point lead and that type of victory is hard to recover from. The Mavericks have not had any success in this role as they are 0-5 straight up and against the number as home underdogs and overall they are 7-16 against the NBA top ten. Indiana is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games coming off a double-digit loss while the Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. 10* (815) Indiana Pacers
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