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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-12-22 | Pirates +135 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 135 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our N.L. Central Game of the Month. The Pirates lost on Sunday to conclude a bad homestand where they went 2-7 so a trip on the road can only do some good. They are 23-45 on the road but down only 6.5 units as Pittsburgh has been the underdog the vast majority of the time and it is again here in what looks to be a more even matchup than what the line is telling us here. This is a bad offense overall but have averaged close to four rpg over their last six games which included one run in a two-game stretch against the Mets. Bryse Wilson takes the ball and he has been limited over his last few games after throwing 43, 56 and 77 pitches but it has steadily increased and after facing the Phillies, Brewers and Mets in those games, he gets a break facing a poor offense. The Reds also lost on Sunday as they lost to the Brewers 7-6 to put an end to a decent 3-1 run and Cincinnati is 5-6 over its last 11 games. They are 29-39 at home so there is no real edge here as the pitching has been the downfall. Cincinnati has a 4.86 ERA at home which is the second worst in all of baseball and an MLB low eight saves no thanks to a bullpen that has posted a 4.82 ERA. Taking the hill is Mike Minor who has pitched well of late but his best have been on the road as he has a 6.11 ERA in nine home starts where the Reds are 0-9 and he has just one quality outing in those nine games. Here, we play against home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or more over his last three starts. This situation is 56-37 (60.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (901) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +1.5 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 76 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Divisional Game of the Month. Green Bay enters the season the favorite to win the NFC North yet again at -175 and is second to Tampa Bay to win the conference at +400 but there are concerns that should be weeded out by midseason but early on, there could be some chemistry issues on offense. The loss of receiver Davante Adams, who accounted for over one-third of the Packers receiving yards, is the obvious big absence as he has been reunited with his college quarterback in Las Vegas and the lone major holdover at receiver is Allen Lazard and he is banged up heading into the season opener and listed as questionable. The offensive line will be better as the season goes along with the return of left tackle David Bakhtiari who played only one game last season but he is also on the injury list as questionable. The Green Bay defense was one of the worst against the run as far as average carries as it allowed 4.7 ypc which was third worst in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers has done it in the past with a skeleton offense but this is not the ideal opening game. Minnesota made changes on the sidelines with Kevin O'Connell taking over as head coach, coming over from the Rams where he was the offensive coordinator and he has an exceptional offense already in place to work with. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is one of the most criticized signal callers in the league and probably for simply not taking his team deep into the playoffs as his numbers speak for themselves. He was No. 4 in quarterback rating last season, ahead of Brady, Mahomes and Allen and over the last three seasons, he is tied for No. 5 in the PFF ratings and he is underrated. Eight of the Vikings nine losses last season came by eight or fewer points so being competitive is not a problem. The Vikings are 17-6 ATS as a home underdog over the last 10 years and while they are a small dog here, they probably should not be as we have this one as a pickem and the extra point and a half is important for teaser players as it crosses four key numbers. 10* (476) Minnesota Vikings |
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09-11-22 | Browns +2 v. Panthers | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Cleveland enters the season as an unknown because of the quarterback situation but that aside, the Browns still have one of the best rosters in the league. Jacoby Brissett is capable to handle this offense and he will not be asked to win but to just maintain control and use everything around him. His receiving corps is stacked with newly acquired Amari Cooper, rookie David Bell and a very underrated Donovan Peoples-Jones, he has a great offensive line in front of his and has one of the best running backs behind him in Nick Chubb. Cleveland will face a tough defense in the Panthers which finished No. 2 in the NFL in total defense but No. 21 in scoring defense and Cleveland has the pieces to exploit this unit. This is a big year for Carolina and head coach Matt Rhule who is on the hot seat after winning just 10 games in his first two seasons. A lot of the problems were with injuries, namely Christian McCaffrey who has played in only 11 of the past 33 games, and quarterback where there has been no consistency. Enter Baker Mayfield who won the starting job over Sam Darnold which was not a difficult thing to do and the big narrative here is Baker playing his former team in the first game of the season, thus adding a revenge factor. It is unlikely that he is going to step up his play just because of the opponent and this is the first game of the season for both teams so there is no added incentive on either side. No narrative. With the Deshaun Watson status still up in the air over the summer, Cleveland opened as a 4.5-point favorite and was bet up to -5 in some spots and now the line is +1.5 or +2 so we are seeing a swing of up to seven points and sorry, no player is worth a line shift like that unless the backup is completely incompetent which is not the case here. A year ago, Cleveland was a sleeper Super Bowl pick and this year, it is nothing close to that so the pressure aspect of needing to win is gone so simply playing looser is beneficial which makes them a live dog here. 10* (459) Cleveland Browns |
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09-11-22 | Steelers +7 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. Much is said about the Super Bowl hangover and how the losing team from the big game tends to struggle the following season and we can totally see that here. Cincinnati will have the target on its back heading into the season following that disappointing three-point loss to the Rams and many are projecting a pretty big drop off in the highly potent AFC. The Bengals won 10 regular season games, but caught fire in the playoffs toward their Super Bowl run with the MVP not being Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase or Joe Mixon but kicker Even McPherson. The biggest issue last season was pass protection as Burrow was dropped 70 times and while there was an offensive line upgrade in the offseason, it could take some time for the three new pieces to fall into place. Another concern is Burrow himself who missed time in camp due to an appendectomy and he had to fight through an infection where he apparently lost 20 pounds. He is not 100 percent. The Steelers are not on many radars this season and they probably should not be but with head coach Mike Tomlin on the sidelines, this is always a dangerous team. They were not a very good football team last season but still were able to sneak into the playoffs before succumbing to the Chiefs and it is now 15 consecutive seasons that Tomlin has not produced a losing record as the Pittsburgh coach. Obviously, the big change is Ben Roethlisberger has retired and Mitch Trubisky will take over as the starter and while some see this as a downgrade, it is not. Roethlisberger finished last season No. 25 in QBR and if he can take them to the playoffs, Trubisky can. The offensive line is a slight concern but do not have a horrible matchup here. The Steelers defense is not what it used to be but can still get to the quarterback and that alone should be enough to keep them in this game. In the meeting here last season in November, the Bengals were 3.5-point favorites and now it is nearly double that and that is too much of an overadjustment. 10* (461) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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09-11-22 | Colts v. Texans +7.5 | Top | 20-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Another new look Colts team takes the field in 2022 with yet another new quarterback at the helm. This is the sixth straight season that Indianapolis will be starting a different quarterback (Jacoby Brissett twice sandwiched around Andrew Luck) as it is starting to rival the Browns in this category. Carson Wentz was not horrible last season as he finished No. 9 in the NFL in QBR but the last two games of the season doomed him as all they needed was one win and they lost to the Raiders and Jaguars to miss the postseason. Is Matt Ryan really an upgrade? Only time will tell and while he had a worse roster to work with last season, he was No. 21 in QBR, his lowest since 2015 and his 20 touchdowns were the fewest since his rookie season. He definitely has better pieces around him in Indianapolis as well as a better defense but laying this many points on the road in a divisional game is a lot to ask. Houston is once again expected to finish near the bottom in the AFC with a lot of questions all over the field. That being said, it is a new season with every team on a level playing field, to an extent, and the Texans will come out and see where they stand against a divisional opponent. Last season, they rolled over Jacksonville in the season opener and while the Jaguars/Colts comparison is not a fair one, it does show that things can be different early in the season. David Mills remains the starting quarterback and there is a mix of opinions of him being a band-aid to the heir apparent or having the upside to become a full time starter. Like Ryan, only time will tell. One thing is certain and that is he plays much better at home than on the road. He had a 109.6 quarterback rating at home where he completed 69.7 percent of his passes for 1,725 yards with 12 touchdowns and one interception compared to a 63.1 rating on the road where he had just 939 yards with four touchdowns and nine interceptions. Defensively, stopping Jonathan Taylor will be the key and while Houston allowed the second most rushing yards last season, they were ran on the second most, ahead of only the Jets. 10* (468) Houston Texans |
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09-10-22 | Northern Illinois +6.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 72 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Northern Illinois has some big expectations this season and there is no reason to believe that the Huskies will not reach and/or exceed those. Last season they went 9-5 and won the MAC Championship for the fourth time in 10 years as the Huskies welcomed back 19 starters and head coach Thomas Hammock could be building something really good again. They have 18 starters back this season while being ranked No. 8 in returning production and a repeat is the goal. They opened the season against Eastern Illinois and won 34-27 and that closer than expected finish is going to worry some but this is a veteran team that will regroup and all that narrow victory did was give us line value this week. The Huskies led by 22 points in the second half on two different occasions and instead of going for the jugular, they took the foot off the gas so a lot of the Panthers output was after the game was pretty much decided. Nonetheless, they have to play better which we are expecting they do. Tulsa put up a dud last week against Wyoming as they lost in overtime by three points as there were facets of the game that they failed at against what was considered a pretty bad team coming off a 38-6 loss against Illinois where the Cowboys could do nothing. The Golden Hurricane could not run the ball, turned it over more than they should have and special teams was horrible. The one big positive was quarterback Davis Brin who threw for a career-high 460 yards and three touchdowns but still could not get it done against a Cowboys defense that returns just four starters and have just one holdover in the secondary so he should have gone off. This line should be in the field goal range so we get value there in a game the Huskies can win outright. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that averaged 425 or more total ypg last season, with eight or more offensive starters including the quarterback returning, in the first month of the season. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (385) Northern Illinois Huskies |
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09-10-22 | Kansas +13.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 55-42 | Win | 100 | 72 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS JAYHAWKS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. We bet the Kansas over win total of 2.5 and we are almost halfway there and while one victory over an FCS team is not going to say the Jayhawks are now a force to be reckoned with, it was a very positive step and an additional one that goes back to last season. There have been seven coaches on the Kansas sideline during this putrid 13-year stretch but good things happened down the stretch last year and if Lance Leipold was able to turn things around in Buffalo, he has a chance to do it here, in time of course. At the end of last season, Kansas defeated Texas in a wild 57-56 overtime upset and then lost its final two games by just nine points combined. Why is this important? Quarterback Jalon Daniels took over those games and was excellent and over the last four games, he is 80-110 (72.7 percent) for 895 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. He was efficient last week and now teams have to pay attention not only to the running game, but to the passing game. West Virginia is coming off a tough loss against Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl which puts them in a tough spot as it could get guilty of looking past Kansas. Against Pittsburgh, West Virginia had 190 rushing on 33 carries (5.8 ypc) while the Panthers had just 76 yards rushing on 38 carries (2.0 ypc) so that goes to the Mountaineers but Pittsburgh threw for 308 yards (19.3 yards per completion) compared to the Mountaineers passing for 214 yards (9.3 yards per completion). Daniels has every chance to be successful again here. The Kansas defense was one of the worst in the country last season but there is plenty of experience and the depth has increased thanks to the transfer portal. They allowed only 10 points and 190 total yards and while that was Tennessee Tech, the recent history of FCS games has not been good so this is a big thing and a huge thing to build on. Not much was expected with a 5.5 win total and just 12 starters returning with a No. 111 returning production ranking. 10* (371) Kansas Jayhawks |
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09-10-22 | Iowa State v. Iowa -3 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our CFB Saturday Rivalry Rout. How bad was the Iowa offense last week against South Dakota St.? The Hawkeyes managed just one touchdown in the 7-3 victory. Correction, it was not even a touchdown as their scoring came from a field goal and a pair of safeties so the offense was even worst than that seven-point total can possibly look. The offense managed 166 yards of offense, quarterback Spencer Petras was 11-25 for 109 yards, running back Leshon Williams was the leading rusher with 72 yards and the MVP was punter Tory Taylor who punted 10 times with seven of those being downed inside the 20-yard line including five inside the 10-yard line. Injuries played a role last week but they will be more healthy this week and the playing time of the younger players was a big edge even though the performances were not there. Iowa St. looked much better in its opener against an FCS opponent as it defeated SE Missouri St. 42-10 but it was not as dominating as that score might indicate. The Cyclones won the yardage battle 469-320 and had a fairly narrow 7.0 to 5.3 yard per play edge. If there is good news for the Iowa passing game it is that the Redhawks threw for 222 yards on an 11.7 completion average, the same as the Cyclones. Iowa St. quarterback Hunter Dekkers is a redshirt freshman that saw limited action last season so there is not much for teams to look at on film but the Hawkeyes have firsthand experience as he faced them in relief duty last season, going 11-16 for 114 yards and a touchdown and while those numbers were good, Iowa has a big edge having played against him. Iowa will have a much better defense than that of SE Missouri St., and because of this, the Cyclones need to use the clock to their advantage and that is what the Hawkeyes will plan on taking away. No one will be backing Iowa here and as of Wednesday morning, 60 percent of the action is on the Cyclones and from just a scoreboard analysis from last week, it is not hard to imagine that. There is more to it than that. 10* (368) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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09-10-22 | Appalachian State v. Texas A&M -19 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS A&M AGGIES for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. We lost with Appalachian St. last week while some may have pushed and we are going against the Mountaineers here in a much different matchup and situation. That was a heart-wrenching loss as they came all the way back with a monster fourth quarter but came up just short in a game they had circled all summer and the biggest home crown in program history went home disappointed. Picking up the pieces will not be easy and this is where a cupcake would come in handy but they are not so lucky. Looking at the stats shows a masterful quarterback performance from Chase Brice who threw for six touchdowns and 361 yards against the Tar Heels and many people will go by that and think that this attack is now balanced and can give the Aggies fits but two weeks ago, North Carolina allowed 279 yards on 28-39 passing with a 7.2 yard per attempt average against Florida A&M from the FCS so the Brice numbers do not look as sparkly. Texas A&M toyed with Sam Houston St. last week in a 31-0 victory that might not look very impressive score-wise but it was a pure domination. The Aggies put up 497 yards of offense on 7.4 yards per play and looking at the drive chart shows it took a while for that offense to get rolling in the first game of the season as they had 184 yards in their first seven possessions, one accounting for 77 of those, but they tallied 303 yards over the final six possessions. Haynes King was great at quarterback despite a pair of picks as he threw for 364 yards and three touchdowns on 65 percent completions. The defense, despite down six starters from last season, did what was expected as it held the Bearkats to 198 yards and 10 first downs and will give the Mountaineers fits unlike how North Carolina tried. Here, we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 4.75 or more rushing ypc last season, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 74-31 ATS (70.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (354) Texas A&M Aggies |
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09-10-22 | North Carolina v. Georgia State +7.5 | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 66 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the GEORGIA ST. PANTHERS as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Georgia St. lost to South Carolina last week 35-14 but it was a misleading final as the Panthers were in the game but special teams did them in. They were down by just five points at halftime and picked off a pass on the second play of the third quarter and converted that into a touchdown for their first and only lead. South Carolina scored the final 23 points to pull away thanks to a pair of blocked punts returned for touchdowns. If those did not happen and the final score was closer to 10 points, this line would not be nearly as high. Georgia St. won the yardage battle 311-306 and take a big step down in opposing defense this week. Quarterback Darren Grainger was not great last week but he can go off here just like Chase Brice did last week as he threw for six touchdowns and 361 yards with a very similar offense to that of the Panthers run first option. North Carolina may be 2-0 but it has not been impressive. This defense is not good and will keep many teams around so a look at a home underdog is always an option, especially one that is coming off a solid game against an SEC team. The Tar Heels let Brice go off and the argument will be that the Mountaineers were down huge and had to throw. Sure that is the case but the defense knew it was coming and had no answers. This after giving up 279 yards on 28-39 passing with a 7.2 yard per attempt average to Florida A&M of the FCS. The North Carolina offense is strong but will be facing an underrated defense. The Panthers were great against South Carolina and going back to last season, they improvement immensely by giving up only 20.3 ppg over the final eight games and have seven starters back led by linebackers Blake Carroll and Jordan Veneziale who combined for 169 tackles and 9.5 sacks last season and had 10 and one last week. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 83-35 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (322) Georgia St. Panthers |
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09-10-22 | Southern Miss +25 v. Miami-FL | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES as part of our CFB Saturday Underdog Three Pack. Southern Mississippi is coming off a loss to Liberty in four overtimes and now must change directions quickly. Liberty outgained Southern Mississippi 447-391 but needed 15 more plays to do so and the Golden Eagles had the better yard per play average and this team is expected to be a much improved program. They stumbled to a 3-9 record under first year head coach Will Hall and Southern Mississippi brings back 16 starters and has the No. 7 ranked returning production in the country so they have the experience that will be ready. The quarterback situation is still in the air but that is a position that was already low coming in. While one player cannot make a difference in a game, something says Frank Gore, Jr. has had this game circled for a while coming off a career-high 178 yards on a career-best 32 carries and a pair of rushing scores last week. The Hurricanes hung 70 points on Bethune-Cookman which comes as no surprise as the offense did what it wanted but the defense was not great, allowing 342 yards on a 6.1 yard per play average and this is a game it should have dominated on defense. Now after one big victory over an FCS school, there is already talk about the U being back. We need to pump the brakes a bit here even though this team is no doubt going to be heading in the right direction under new head coach Mario Cristobal but it is too soon. For starters, even though it was a game against an FCS team, this is an awful spot with the letdown/lookahead situation. Letdown? Yes. Over 56,000 fans came to watch the debut of the new look Hurricanes in primetime and now they have a noon kickoff against a team no one in Florida cares about and with a game at Texas A&M next week, not only the lookahead there but for this game, they will keep things simple and not show their cards. Here, we play on teams off a home loss by three points or less, in the first month of the season. This situation is 67-27 ATS (71.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (327) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles |
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09-09-22 | Guardians v. Twins -105 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our A.L. Central Sweet Spot. Cleveland and Minnesota open a crucial series on Friday with the Guardians holding onto a 1.5-game lead over the Twins and White Sox in the American League Central. Cleveland is coming off a series win against Kansas City but lost the finale and going back, it is 4-9 over its last 13 games as the offense has been nowhere to be found. The Guardians have averaged only 2.1 rpg over those 13 games, scoring no runs or one run seven times and will not have an easy task tonight. On the mound for Cleveland is Cal Quantril who has a 3.55 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the season but has gotten somewhat inconsistent as he has allowed four runs or more in three of his last eight starts. Minnesota is coming off a win at New York which momentarily quelled a rough stretch of going 1-6 over its previous seven games. The Twins held the division lead for most of the season but it has been one month since they have seen first place when thy were tied with Cleveland on August 9. Minnesota is back home where it is 40-29 and is catching a good price with Dylan Bundy on the hill. He was pretty average for most of the season but has been on a roll as he has posted a 2.03 ERA over his last six starts and he has been very consistent at home all season with a 2.80 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in nine starts with the Twins going 6-3 in those games. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and with a WHIP of 1.00 over his last five starts. This situation is 44-16 (73.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (972) Minnesota Twins |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Thursday Kickoff Winner. We think Buffalo will have a chip on its shoulder this season and why not take it out on the defending Super Bowl Champions. The last time we saw Buffalo, or actually did not see them as they did not get a chance on offense in overtime against the Chiefs, we saw a disappointed team and one that is going to hungry from the start. The linemakers have agreed with this, making them the favorite to win the Super Bowl and they have seen a big move here, going from an underdog to a favorite on the road. The Bills are legitimately improved from last season, albeit slightly, with some key additions at wide receiver and on the defensive line. While the Bills offense gets most of the credit and probably rightfully so with Josh Allen and co. marching up and down the field at will but the Bills defense was the best in the NFL last season, finishing No. 1 in opponents scoring, opponents yards per game and opponents yards per play. They will be without corner Tre'Davious White which is a tough loss but safety Jordan Poyer looks good to go after having elbow issues during the preseason and of course the signing of Von Miller is a big bonus. They will have a test against the Rams offense that is nearly back in place from last season with Robert Woods gone and replaced by Allen Robinson which was their only major weapon change and it is a wash, and the retirement of tackle Andrew Whitworth is the other big one. Not much has changed on either side enough to not be able to base a lot of the numbers from last season and the Rams should be a slight favorite or a pickem but not an underdog of this size. We have the Super Bowl hangover in play as past champions have struggled to make the playoffs the following season in a lot of cases but it does not start with the opening game. Since the inception of the NFL Kickoff Game where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the opening Thursday night game, with two exceptions in 2013 and 2019, the defending champions have gone 14-2 and they have never played an inferior team so it is not a skewed record. Additionally, we play on underdogs or pickems that averaged 24 or more ppg last season. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (452) Los Angeles Rams |
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09-07-22 | Diamondbacks +184 v. Padres | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our N.L. West Game of the Month. One of the hottest teams in baseball over the last month comes from an unexpected name and that is the Diamondbacks. They lost a tough one last night on a two-run walk off single but are still on an 18-11 run over their last 29 games and sometimes with nothing to play for, teams tend to play looser. Over the last 12 games, they are 9-3 with all of those games against the White Sox, Phillies, Brewers and Padres so they have not been facing any cupcakes in the process. Despite being 28-36 on the road, Arizona is still on the plus size in units thanks to numbers like this. Tommy Henry did not have a great Major League debut but put together four great starts after that and now coming off a rough outing against the Phillies, expect a bounce back from the No. 13 ranked prospect in the organization. San Diego has been nothing but average after a hot run right after the trade deadline when its World Series odds started falling and it has now gone 14-16 over its last 30 games yet is still being priced as the same team that went 5-0 the first five games. The Padres win was a big one last night for momentum if nothing else as they are long done in the National League West and are tied with the Phillies for the third Wild Card spot in the National League. Yu Darvish has been good but not great of late as while he is coming off seven shutout innings against the Dodgers, he still has a 3.35 ERA over his last six starts. That is very good but not at a price like this especially when San Diego has gone 3-3 in those six games. Here, we play against National League teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 44-29 (60.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (963) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-06-22 | Guardians v. Royals +177 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Cleveland took the opener of this series last night in extra innings to snap a five-game losing skid and coupled with the Twins loss against the Yankees, the Guardians are back into sole possession of first place in the American League Central. They are now just 36-34 on the road and are still up a ton, +7.8 units of profit but most of that success was early on when they were getting big underdog pricing still before their resurgence in June. Shane Bieber takes the hill and he is what is he is and that is consistent. He has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts but Cleveland has lost his last three and is just 6-7 in his last 13 games. Kansas City dropped the opener of this homestand but has still played pretty well at home recently as it is 19-12 over its last 31 at home which is significant as it is +10.95 in units over those 31 games. Overall, the offense has been hitting it well as the Royals are averaging 5.9 rpg over their last 10 games. They turn to Kris Bubic who was coming off a couple poor outings but bounced back last time out and he has now allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 12 outings. Kansas City is 11-4 against the money line in his last 15 home games against American League teams with a team batting average of .260 or worse. Here, we play against American League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 42-26 (61.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) Kansas City Royals |
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09-06-22 | Reds +149 v. Cubs | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. The Cubs are coming off a tough 2-7 roadtrip including getting swept at St. Louis over the weekend and they are now 56-78 which is just two games better than the Reds but they are being priced like they are significantly better which is not the case. Chicago is 28-38 at home which is only three games different that the road record of Cincinnati so the venue is not the difference. Wade Miley seems to be that difference but he has not made a start in close to three months and he will be on a short leash after throwing just 55 pitches in his last rehab start. The Cubs are 12-31 against the money line in their last 43 home games after having lost six or seven of their last eight games. Cincinnati is a respectable 5-4 over its last nine games with pitching playing a big role, allowing three runs or less in six of those games and an average of 4.1 rpg in those nine games. The offense has not been as strong but they are hitting .250 against lefty pitching this season. The overall and road records are certainly not great but there is an insignificant difference and Cincinnati has the pitching edge here. Justin Dunn has pitched well following a poor start against the Cubs as he has a 2.40 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his last three starts and he has a bullpen behind him that has been throwing very well. Cincinnati is 11-2 against the money line in his last 13 starts when playing against a team with a losing record. Here, we play against teams off three straight losses against division rivals, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last three starts. This situation is 89-61 (59.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (905) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-05-22 | Tigers +167 v. Angels | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Los Angeles lost two of three against Houston over the weekend and has opened this homestand with a 3-3 record and overall, the home field has killed the Angels. They are 29-39 and down +20.5 units of profit at home and the offense has struggled of late as they are averaging just 2.7 rpg on this homestand and going back, they have scored three runs or less in 15 of their last 22 home games. Jose Suarez has been pitching well of late as he has allowed three runs or less in his last six starts but this one again comes down to value. Since being favored against Baltimore back in April, the Angels have been underdogs in 10 of his last 12 starts and while they won those two exceptions, they were favored by just -120 in each of those games and now all of a sudden, he is being treated like a top line starter which is certainly not the case. The Angels are 10-21 against the money line in their last 31 games against American League teams with an slugging percentage .400 or worse in this season. Detroit has lost five of its last six games as its offense has not shown much of late either, averaging just 2.5 rpg over this six-game stretch which followed a four-game run where it put up an average of 8.0 rpg. The Tigers have not been good on the road as they are 22-43 but have won their share of big underdog games as they are down -8.3 units despite the 19-game differential in the record. Tyler Alexander gets the ball for the Tigers and since coming back into the rotation in late July, he has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts. He has not fared well on the road but in five road outings, only two have been poor and those were against two of the better home hitting teams in baseball, the Dodgers and Rangers. The Angels are hitting just 2.35 at home, the fourth lowest average in the American League. Detroit is 46-47 in its last 93 games against the money line against left-handed starters. 10* (975) Detroit Tigers |
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09-05-22 | Clemson -21.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 126 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our CFB Monday Star Attraction. While this might be considered a home game for Georgia Tech, it will not be as Clemson will be making the trip with a huge fan base in tow for what in reality is a neutral site game to open the ACC for both teams. A 10-win season was a downer for the Tigers and what they need is a quick start this season after stumbling out last year with a 4-3 start that included losses against NC State and Pittsburgh with three wins coming by 15 points combined against non-bowl teams. This included a 14-8 win over Georgia Tech at home and Clemson has not forgotten that one. Last year was the first one since 2014 that Clemson was not ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll at some point in the season as it got to No. 3 and finished No. 14, the third lowest in the 11 years. The quarterback play has to improve as the offense was abysmal last season but nine starters are back with playmakers at both wide receiver and running back to go along with a veteran offensive line. Defensively, the strength is along the front line with four potential NFL players manning a great run stopping unit and the ability to get to the quarterback. Clemson finished No. 8 in rushing defense and had 42 sacks which was tenth most in the nation so they will once again be all over the place in opponent backfields. Georgia Tech has a lot of work to do and no time to do it. Head coach Geoff Collins was hired after two successful campaigns at Temple and nothing has gone right. He has gone 9-25 in three years and after ending last season with six straight losses including getting shutout against Notre Dame and Georgia in the final two games by a combined 100-0, the fact he still has a job is a little shocking. Only eight starters are back including five on offense that is rebuilding its offensive line, not idea facing Clemson out of the gate. They are worse off defensively with only three starters back after finishing No. 117 in total defense and No. 112 in scoring defense. Clemson should name the score here and the motivation is there to do so. 10* (235) Clemson Tigers |
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09-05-22 | Toronto v. Hamilton | Top | 28-8 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TI-CATS for our CFL Monday Enforcer. Hamilton has lost two straight games, both on the road, to fall to 3-8 on the season and the road has been the ultimate demise. The Ti-Cats are now 0-6 on the highway but are a much more respectable 3-2 at home with the two losses coming by a combined seven points against teams from the West Division. One of those wins came against Toronto in their last home game and the Argonauts got their revenge last week so now it is payback time for Hamilton. Dane Evans will be the starting quarterback again after Matthew Shiltz was hurt after replacing Evans last week so a return home can only do him good after a poor outing against Hamilton. The home team is 7-0 in the last seven games for Hamilton. Toronto improved to 5-5 on the season but it has had a very favorable schedule this far with seven of the 10 games taking place at home and this is the start of six road games over the last seven so things could get ugly down the stretch. The Argonauts are 1-2 on the road with both losses coming by a touchdown or more with the victory being an impressive one over Saskatchewan but they are at the wrong end of the revenge angle this week and one intangible in our favor is a contrarian one. Turnovers have been a big difference for Toronto as after six games, the Argonauts were -10 in turnover margin but over last four games they are +10 in turnover margin and this latter part of the angle cannot be sustainable. Here, we play on favorites after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (696) Hamilton Ti-Cats |
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09-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +3.5 | Top | 20-18 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Game of the Week. Winnipeg bounced back from its first loss of the season with a two-point win over Calgary last week and is back on the road where it is a perfect 6-0. While the Blue Bombers have a 10-1 record, they have not exactly dominated as six of the 10 wins this season have been by seven points or less. Saskatchewan bounced back as well as it defeated B.C. on the road following a home loss to the Lions the previous week to move back over .500 at 6-5, one of four teams in the West Division with a winning record. The Roughriders are just 3-3 at home and that record is partially playing into this number along with the overall Winnipeg record. It was a good sign from quarterback Cody Fajardo last week as he threw for 321 passing yards with two touchdowns while completing 79.2 percent of his passes. This is the first of three meetings in the next four games so Saskatchewan has a chance to make a move with a big September run. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after one or more consecutive losses against the spread playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 61-31 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (694) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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09-04-22 | Twins +125 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 125 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our A.L. Central Game of the Month. The White Sox have taken the first two games of this series and have won four straight games and have closed the gap in the American League Central from six games to two games over those last four games. Sitting six games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League likely means division or bust. Chicago is now still a game under .500 at home and are down 13.5 units and while the hitting has been good here, the pitching has not despite the recent four games. One of the issues is Lucas Giolito who has had a rough season with a 5.27 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 24 starts including a 6.86 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 11 home starts and he is responsible for over 40 percent of the lost home profits. Minnesota has been all over the place as it won four straight, lost six straight, won five straight and has currently dropped three straight games. The Twins are still just one game behind Cleveland in the American League Central and still own the best scoring differential in the division. Dylan Bundy got off to a rough start this season but has rebounded well as he posted a 2.63 ERA in five August starts. This is his fourth start against Chicago this season and he posted a 2.34 ERA in the first three starts with the Twins winning all three of those games. Here, we play on American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging between 4.4 to 4.9 rpg and with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. this situation is 54-25 (68.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (923) Minnesota Twins |
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09-03-22 | Texas State +1 v. Nevada | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS ST. BOBCATS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. We lost by going against Nevada last week but we were on the right side, the breaks just went the wrong way. The Aggies got inside the Nevada 30-yard line on its first two possessions but missed a field goal and threw an interception and they had four turnovers on seven drives in the half and were unable to score. The second half was much better where they gained 198 yards on their last three possessions but resulted in a touchdown, a field goal and another turnover at the Nevada nine-yard line in the final minute. Nevada was actually outgained 303-257 but benefitted from those five turnovers while not turning the ball over on offense. That offense has work to do as it had only 78 yards passing with just a 3.4 yard per attempt average while the rushing game averaged only 4.0 ypc. The public sees a win and a cover and will be all over this short number. The Bobcats have endured seven straight losing seasons, compiling a 19-65 record over that stretch. Current head coach Jake Spavital is entering his fourth season and while a 4-8 record last year is hardly a big move, it was the best record over the past seven years. Texas St. returns 16 starters and has a No. 23 returning production ranking including No. 7 on offense where some big steps forward are expected. Taking over at quarterback is Arkansas St. transfer Layne Hatcher who was not very good on a very bad team last season but this offense can fit his style. The receiving corps is solidified with Javan Banks and Marcell Barbee combining for 1,068 yards and 10 touchdowns. The defense improved by over 60 ypg and five ppg but it was still bad yet brings back good depth and experience and the Nevada offense is not going to scare anyone. This is the first time in a while that there are expectations to improve even more and if things can go the Bobcats way, the first ever bowl game is within reach. 10* (207) Texas St. Bobcats |
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09-03-22 | BYU v. South Florida +12.5 | Top | 50-21 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS for our CFB Saturday Underdog Shocker. South Florida has been awful over the last two seasons and this line has a lot to do with that. There is a lot of pressure at the top as head coach Jeff Scott has to make a positive move forward. He has gone 3-18 in his first two seasons and entering 2022, there are no excuses as 19 starters are back from a 2-10 team with the only FBS win coming against Temple. Almost everyone is back from the offense that finished No. 102 in total offense and No. 99 in scoring offense and help is on the way at the most important position. Former Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon will step into the starting role for Timmy McClain who could not get the offense rolling. On the other side, the Bulls were No. 124 in total defense and No. 117 in scoring defense and there is plenty of experience back to improve in all areas. Be disruptive is the goal and there are pieces in place to do so. The linebackers are the strength as Antonio Grier and Dwayne Boyles both return after combining for 159 tackles. Going 21-4 over the last two seasons has put BYU back on the map and it is loaded for another big year with 19 returning starters and a ranking of No. 2 in returning production. Offensively, BYU took a step back last season from 2020 on offense as it averaged more than 70 fewer ypg and put up 11 fewer ppg. Quarterback Jaren Hall took over last season and was solid in 10 games where he threw for 2,583 yards and 20 touchdowns with just five interceptions and he should be even better. The Cougars lost leading rusher Tyler Allgeier who ran for over 1,400 yards so they will take a step back behind one of the better offensive lines in the country. The defense was not great last season as BYU finished No. 74 overall, No. 77 in passing and No. 66 in rushing but it was opportunistic with 25 takeaways that led to a good scoring defense and turnovers cannot be counted upon. 10* (168) South Florida Bulls |
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09-03-22 | Bowling Green +23.5 v. UCLA | Top | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Bowling Green head coach Scott Loeffler has compiled a 7-22 record in his three seasons with the Falcons and this season is likely the last stand if there is not a major turnaround. Last season, Bowling Green was one of the most inexperienced teams in the country but this season, the Falcons have the most experienced team in the nation as far as returning production. Offensively, the Falcons have 10 starters coming back so there should be massive improvements all around. Quarterback Matt McDonald was decent with 2,555 passing yards but threw only 12 touchdowns and tossed seven interceptions but with the experience around him, the redshirt senior transfer can flourish. He has players everywhere around him as the two top targets are back and there is plenty of depth with four players behind them that has at least 100 yards receiving. The two top running backs return also as well as four starting offensive linemen. UCLA is getting the love once again as it typically does but it is hard to be sold on this team. UCLA snapped a five-season losing streak last year with an 8-4 record with head coach Chip Kelly responsible for three of those losing campaigns and while things look to be on the upturn, there are a lot of questions going into this season. They had 20 starters return in 2021 so expectations were high but this season, only eight starters are back and this could be a massive trap. The Bruins are set at quarterback with Dorian Thompson-Robinson but he needs players to step up big around him. the Bruins have to replace nine starters from a defense that finished No. 70 overall, allowing 384.4 ypg while giving up 26.8 ppg, which was No. 74 in the nation. UCLA was not clutch on this side of the ball as it allowed opponents to convert 43.6 percent of its third down opportunities, tied for No. 110 in the country. 10* (199) Bowling Green Falcons |
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09-03-22 | North Carolina v. Appalachian State +2 | Top | 63-61 | Push | 0 | 88 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the APPALACHIAN ST. MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Nonconference Game of the Month. North Carolina has a game played this season and while that may seem like an advantage, it is actually a disadvantage in some cases and that includes this one as North Carolina rolled over Florida A&M but did not look good in doing so. It also gives the current opponent a whole game of film to dissect. Last week after a first possession punt, North Carolina scored touchdowns on its next three drives and eight of the next 10 to pull away. Florida A&M did have success of its own on offense as after two punts to open the game, it scored on four of its next six possessions with the last cutting the lead to 35-24 late in the third quarter before the Tar Heels pulled away with three fourth quarter touchdowns. North Carolina outgained the Rattlers 608-335 with the rushing game being the difference as it had 314 yards on 40 carries (7.9 ypc) while allowing just 56 yards on 27 carries (2.1 ypc). The area for concern for the Tar Heels was giving up 279 yards on 28-39 passing with a 7.2 yard per attempt average. While that rushing defense for North Carolina was solid, it takes a big step up in class here. Quarterback Chase Brice returns following a very successful campaign where threw for 3,020 yards, 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while completing 61.9 percent of his passes. Receivers do have to step up. He has the best offensive line in the conference in front of him with four starters back and both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples return along with their 2,463 rushing yards. Defensively, the Mountaineers lost five of their top seven tacklers but there is still plenty in the cupboard to make another run. The rushing defense, which led the Sun Belt last season, is the key to success on this side of the ball as Appalachian St. is undersized and inexperienced along the defensive line so the linebacking strength will have to keep this unit stout. 10* (178) Appalachian St. Mountaineers |
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09-02-22 | Temple +7 v. Duke | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. The last two seasons have seen a significant drop off as Duke has gone 5-18 and in comes new head coach Mike Elko to try and turn things around. The Blue Devils closed last season with eight straight losses with the defense allowing a whopping 46.6 ppg and no team can succeed with that. Only 11 starters are back in 2022 and they have one of the worst returning production rankings in the country so it could take some time for any sort of significant improvement in Durham. The offense this season is basically starting over with new players at the key positions but they can build around an experienced offensive line that returns four starters. Duke will turn to Riley Leonard at quarterback where he saw limited action last season. The defense was one of the worst in the country last season and one of the worst in program history as Duke was ranked No. 130 in total defense and No. 129 in scoring defense. Yes, Duke should be the favorite here but not by anything close to a touchdown After a 3-2 start last season, Temple closed with seven straight losses, all by 20 or more points and the writing was on the wall before the season ended as the team quit on head coach Rod Carey. It is not a complete rebuild but this is more about turning around the culture that went south fast. New head coach Stan Drayton comes over from Texas and has that winning culture in his back pocket in his first head coaching gig and the schedule is in their favor early on. On offense, quarterback D'Wan Mathis showed promise last season but was unable to stay on the field as he missed two games early as well as the final three games so keeping him healthy is goal number one. That will be the priority of the offensive line that has three starters back and should not have an issue with the Duke front. The defense has been gashed over the last two seasons, allowing close to 38 ppg and an inability to stop the run where they gave up nearly 5.0 ypc. This is the ideal matchup for a season opener to gauge where the unit stands. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were outscored by opponents by 17 or more ppg last season. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (159) Temple Owls |
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09-02-22 | Mariners v. Guardians +130 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Seattle is coming off a three-game sweep at Detroit to make it four straight wins and the Mariners have now won six of their last seven games to move into a tie with Tampa Bay for the first Wild Card spot in the American League, two games clear of Toronto. They are 38-30 on the road and while they were laying some big numbers in Detroit for obvious reasons, they are laying another sizable one here against a division leader due to who they have on the hill. Luis Castillo has been solid since coming over from Cincinnati as he has a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in five starts and he is coming off a quality outing against the Guardians but it resulted in a loss. Cleveland lost against to Baltimore as it was shut out for a second straight game and it remains one game ahead of Minnesota in the American League Central. The Guardians have now lost five of their last seven games but the line value here is too much to pass up. They were favored over Baltimore by at least -40 in all three games and now come in as the underdog against a team that is just three and a half games better than the Orioles. Zach Plesac has put together a solid season and is coming off a quality outing against the Mariners in that game against Castillo. He has a 3.81 ERA in 10 home starts and this is just the second time in his last seven that he has been the underdog, the first coming against Houston. Here, we play against road teams after allowing three runs or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after getting shut out two straight games. This situation is 64-33 (66 percent) since 1997. 10* (920) Cleveland Guardians |
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09-01-22 | Penn State v. Purdue +3.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Last season, Purdue finished 9-4 that included quality wins over Iowa, Michigan St. and Tennessee and the four losses against teams with nine or more wins. 15 starters are back along with a No. 37 ranked recruiting class means Purdue could be here to stay now and for the foreseeable future. This is a statement game right out of the gate and the Boilermakers have the talent and experience to pull the upset. Quarterback Aiden O'Connell was outstanding in his first year as the full time starter as he threw for 3,712 yards with 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while completing over 72 percent of his passes. The Purdue defense has typically been a sieve but it has improved in each of the last four seasons yardage-wise and last year was No. 48 in total defense and No. 34 in scoring defense and it was actually better than that as those rankings are inflated because of their bowl game. Penn St. closed last season 2-6, with the wins coming against Maryland and Rutgers, including closing with a dud against Arkansas in the Outback Bowl. It has been a very average stretch of late with Penn St. going 14-13 over its last 27 games going back to the end of the 2019 season and the Nittany Lions have only 11 starters back. Offensively, they bring back some excellent talent but the big question going into the season is the offensive line as only two starters are back and they will be mixing in some transfers and young players and it might take time to come together in finding the right rotation. Defensively, the Nittany Lions were solid against both the run and the pass and the main area of concern will be up front. Their sack leader is gone and the pass rush was not great to begin with as they had only 27 sacks and their 2.1 sack per game average was tied for No. 74 in the country. going back a level, the linebacking corps loses their top two tacklers that combined for 148 stops so the entire front seven is going to be a work in progress. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a completion percentage of 62 percent or better, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (146) Purdue Boilermakers |
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09-01-22 | Mariners v. Tigers +152 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. Detroit has won five of its last nine games but has dropped the first two games of this series in its return home and despite being nine games under .500 here, the Tigers are down only three units because of numbers like this where there is no pitching disadvantage that warrants a number this big. We saw it last night as the hits were even and it was the normally reliable bullpen that was the difference for Detroit and another loss. Eduardo Rodriguez is back on the hill for his third start after coming back into the rotation following being put on the restricted list due to personal issues and he was gone for 90 days. In the first two starts after the return, he posted a 0.82 ERA covering 11 innings. Prior to this two-game winning start on the roadtrip, Seattle won three of four against Cleveland at home and has maintained its second place spot in the American League Wild Card and it is now 37-30 on the road and while up 12 units, most of that was early on when getting underdog numbers, not laying prices like this. The offense has been slumping as they are hitting .191 while averaging 3.9 rpg over their last seven games. Logan Gilbert has had a good season with a 3.55 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 26 starts and his numbers are steady on the road but he has struggled of late as he has a 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over his last five starts and his strikeout count is way down as he has a 15:9 K:BB ratio after coming in with a 118:32 ratio prior to that. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 199-192 (50.8 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +92.9. 10* (958) Detroit Tigers |
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08-31-22 | Orioles +156 v. Guardians | Top | 4-0 | Win | 156 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. We lost with Baltimore on Tuesday but will turn around and play the Orioles again Wednesday for a lot of the same reasons with a lot of that being value. Baltimore has won five of its last eight games which included a series win at Houston over the weekend and the pitching has been outstanding during this run. Despite allowing five runs Tuesday, the Orioles have allowed just 2.9 rpg over this eight-game stretch and they are staying in contention in the American League Wild Card race as they are three games out of third place. The road has been a good place despite a 30-37 record as lines like this have given them a profit of +9.2 units. Cleveland got back into the win column after dropping three of four in Seattle to hold onto it game and a half lead over Minnesota in the American League Central. The Guardians are 32-25 at home with a profit of just +4 units and are laying another big number here based on the starters. Triston McKenzie has had a solid season and like Quantril last night, he has been favored by -160 or more only three times in 23 starts, twice against Detroit and once against Oakland. Jordan Lyles has been pitching well with a 3.55 ERA over his last seven starts with Baltimore winning six. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 198-190 (51 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +94.4. 10* (915) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-31-22 | Astros v. Rangers +130 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Houston won the series opener last night to make it two straight win to keep its four-game lead over the Yankees in the American League. The Astros have won six of their last eight games and improved to 40-27 on the road but have netted just 4.7 units of profit and the offense has been average as they are hitting .239 which is tied for sixth lowest in the American League Christian Xavier has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts but there has not been much winning to show for it as Houston lost six of those eight games. The long ball has been a real issue as he has allowed nine home runs over this stretch after giving up just six all season prior and his K:BB ratio has come down by nearly one strikeout per game. the Astros are 1-4 in their last five road games against teams with a losing record. Texas has lost three straight games following a 5-1 run with all three of those losses coming at home where the Rangers are now 28-37 on the season and that is playing into this number. They are looking to get the offense going against as prior to last night, they averaged 6.3 rpg over their previous 10 games and including last night, they have averaged 5.8 rpg in their last five home games. Martin Perez will be out for some payback as he allowed seven runs in Houston in his last outing against the Astros four starts back and he has posted a 1.50 ERA in three starts since then. Overall, he has a 2.69 ERA over 25 starts with the Rangers going 17-8 in those games and Texas is 10-3 in his 13 starts this season after he has allowed two earned runs or less in two straight starts. 10* (914) Texas Rangers |
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08-30-22 | Mariners v. Tigers +160 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Detroit has won five of its last seven games including a series win at Texas and it is back home where it has won three of its last four and despite being seven games under .500 here, the Tigers are down only one unit because of numbers like this where there is no pitching disadvantage that warrants a number this big. And especially with one of the better bullpens in baseball as they have a 3.42 ERA including a 3.36 ERA at home. Matt Manning re-entered the rotation to start the month and he has been great with a 2.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in five outings with two of his best starts coming at home but Detroit gave him no runs each time. Seattle won three of four against Cleveland at home and has maintained its second place spot in the American League Wild Card and it hits the road where it is 35-30 and while up 10 units, most of that was early on when getting underdog numbers, not laying prices like this. The offense has been slumping as they are hitting .184 while averaging 3.0 rpg over their last seven games. George Kirby gets the ball for Seattle and he has been very consistent, allowing three runs or less in eight straight starts and while three of those have been on the road, they have not been as efficient as he has a 4.11 ERA in those games over 15.1 innings. Here, we play on home teams with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start, after a game where the bullpen allowed six or more earned runs. This situation is 61-32 (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (966) Detroit Tigers |
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08-30-22 | Orioles +140 v. Guardians | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Cleveland lost three of four games against Seattle and its lead in the American League Central has shrunk to a game and a half over the Twins. The Guardians are 32-25 at home with a profit of just +4 units and are laying a big number here because of the starter. Cal Quantril has quietly put together a very solid season as he has a 3.59 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts and those numbers are better at home and the contrarian aspect is to go against him here as the Guardians are 9-0 over his last nine starts. He has been favored by -150 or more three times and those were against Detroit twice and Arizona. Baltimore has won five of its last seven games which included a series win at Houston over the weekend and the pitching has been outstanding during this run. The Orioles have allowed just 2.6 rpg over this seven-game stretch and they are staying in contention in the American League Wild Card race as they are two games out of third place. The road has been a good place despite a 30-36 record as lines like this have given them a profit of +10.2 units. Spenser Watkins has been great since coming back into the rotation in late June as he has a 2.47 ERA over his last nine starts. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 197-189 (51 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +93.4. 10* (963) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-29-22 | Yankees v. Angels +164 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 164 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Yankees will be a very public bet tonight after losing their last two games in Oakland which snapped a five-game winning streak, cooling off what looked like could have been a possible big rebound run after an awful stretch. New York is just 33-30 on the road while down 9.9 units and the offense continues to struggle as they have scored four runs or less in 16 of their last 18 games, averaging 2.9 rpg over this stretch and they are No. 17 in baseball with a .241 average. Frankie Montas has been up and down of late as he has a 7.32 ERA over his last four starts and on the season, he has a 5.82 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in eight road starts. The Yankees are 4-11 in their last 15 games following a loss. The Angels got off to a 1-6 start on their roadtrip before a shocking three-game sweep in Toronto, outscoring the Blue Jays 22-3. Los Angeles returns home where it is 26-36 and down a ton of units but most of that was early in the season when it was still considered a contender and the lines are now reflecting the opposite of that. Jose Suarez had a rough start against the Dodgers in mid-July but he has been solid since then with a 1.93 ERA over his last five outings. The Angels are 4-1 in their last five games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play against road teams batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 70-24 (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-27-22 | Nevada v. New Mexico State +9.5 | Top | 23-12 | Loss | -110 | 254 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW MEXICO ST. AGGIES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. New Mexico St. has been dreadful for years and another rebuilding project is in store but they are getting no respect here at home and with a significant new coaching advantage. The good news is that Jerry Kill is on the sidelines once again after numerous health problems took him from coaching for a few years after being at Minnesota but came back as an interim coach at TCU last year. The hope is a great pedigree will bring some sort of turnaround. The Aggies are pretty much starting over on offense and that is not a bad thing as they have only three starters back which is part of the No. 129 ranked returning production offense. Kill is in place to turn around a running game that averaged 100.4 ypg, which was No. 104 in the country, and having lost its leading rusher, the Aggies turn to a pair of transplants to get it going. The offensive line is the most experienced group where those three starters return. The Aggies were horrible on defense last season but nine starters are back and this is an ideal offense to go against in their first game. First year head coach Ken Wilson, who was in the program for 21 years, inherits a Nevada team that was the most experienced in the country heading into last season with 22 returning starters to the least experienced coming into 2022 with only six starters back. Nevada has had four straight winning seasons including an 8-5 record last season that included three losses by two points apiece and those eight wins are tied for the most since 2010 but this year looks to be a rebuild from the start especially with an incoming recruiting class ranked No. 116. On offense, two starters are back, the running back and an offensive lineman and every other position will be up for grabs. Quarterback Carson Strong threw for 4,175 yards with 36 touchdowns and eight interceptions and will be impossible to replace and it will be either Shane Illingworth from Oklahoma St. or Nate Cox who threw only 43 passed last season for the Wolf Pack while the top five pass catchers are all gone. The defense is nearly as inexperienced with just four returning starters. 10* (304) New Mexico St. Aggies |
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08-27-22 | Ottawa v. Edmonton Elks -3 | Top | 25-18 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON ELKS for our CFL Game of the Month. Football in Edmonton used to be a big deal but it has been some trying times for a while now. The Elks are 3-7 on the season with a playoff berth at least another year away but they have played better of late as all three of those wins came within their last seven games and the four defeats over this stretch have come against teams from the West Division. Additionally, all three wins have come on the road as the Elks are 0-4 at home and they have not won a home game in over 22 months as they are 0-12 over their last 12 home games. Thanks to some improved play over the last two weeks and the back end of a home-and-home series, this one sets up perfectly for the streak to end. Ottawa opened the season with three solid efforts with two games against Winnipeg and a game against B.C. resulting in losses by a combined 12 points but have struggled much more of late with four of their last five losses coming by at least a touchdown and the only victory on the season came at Toronto despite winning the yardage battle by just 26 total yards. The overall numbers are not horrible as Ottawa is ranked No. 5 in total offense and No. 7 in total defense but the quarterback situation remains a mess. Caleb Evans will take a seat and Nick Arbuckle will make the start on Saturday and while he has completed 66.7 percent of his passes in mop up duty, he has not thrown a touchdown while tossing two interceptions. The RedBlacks are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up loss. 10* (688) Edmonton Elks |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -12 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 244 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Big Ten Game of the Month. It has been a forgettable run for the once proud Nebraska football program as it has had five straight losing seasons, the last four under current head coach Scott Frost. They have gone 13-31 in the Big Ten during this five-season slide and while the 3-9 record last season was the worst of them all, it was arguably the best of them all as far as competitiveness. All nine losses were by single digits and by an average of 6.2 ppg so Nebraska was painfully close to putting together a winning season. Taking over at quarterback will be Casey Thompson who transferred in from Texas following a great season where he threw for 2,113 yards with 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The top two receivers are gone and while there are a few holdovers, three solid transfers enter the picture. The Huskers are experienced on defense and to be a success, they need to take the ball away more and generate a bigger pass rush. The sacks should spike as the Huskers welcome defensive end Ochaun Mathis where he started 34 games at TCU and had 15.5 sacks. The defensive front did ok in stopping the run and that should also get better especially with Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich at linebacker, the two top tackling leaders, where they combined for 208 stops as a sophomore and freshman respectively. Last season, Northwestern went through a rebuilding year with only eight starters back and it showed with a 3-9 record, matching the 2019 team that had only 11 starters return, which are the two worst in the 16 seasons under head coach Pat Fitzgerald. They are experienced on offense but the quarterback situation is still a concern. Ryan Hilinski will get a second chance after throwing for just 978 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions. Defensively, only five starters are back with the top guy being linebacker Bryace Gallagher who was second on the team with 90 tackles and will have to be the leader with two new starters on the outside around him. The lone starter back on the defensive line is Adetomiwa Adebawore who led the team with 4.5 sacks from the middle and he will need help with most of the other sack producers having moved on while the secondary is a question mark as the best player is gone. 10* (300) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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08-26-22 | Saskatchewan +4 v. BC | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. The B.C. train keeps rolling along as the Lions are 8-1 on the season but they still train Winnipeg by a game in the West Division. They are coming off a win at Saskatchewan last week to make it five straight victories but the near future took a massive hit. Quarterback Nathan Rourke was hurt last week and is out for an undetermined period of time which is a huge loss. He passed for 375 yards in the abbreviated outing in Week 11 for his league-leading 6th game of the season with 300 or more yards and he has multiple touchdown passes in all nine of his starts. This will be the first career start for Michael O'Connor who was 5-5 last week when the game was already out of reach. Saskatchewan has now lost four of its last five games to fall to 5-5 on the season and it hits the road where it is 2-2 and a win here pulls it to within a half-game of Calgary in the West Division. Even without Rourke going for the Lions, this is not an easy matchup and while the value may seem to be on the other side, this is the contrarian side with the public biting on the smaller than anticipated number. The Roughriders will go with Cody Fajardo tonight after he was benched near halftime of the loss last week to the Lions and there is not a more motivational situation than this. The Roughriders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off in two straight division games. This situation is 133-75 ATS (63.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (685) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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08-26-22 | Padres v. Royals +173 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Kansas City is off to a 2-1 start on its current homestand and going back, has won three of four here and overall has played pretty well at home. The Royals are 31-35 at home which is nothing great but they have dogs for most of the games and the offense has performed well here as they are hitting .256 at home which is fourth best in the American League. Kris Bubic had a 7.45 ERA through June, covering 11 starts but he has been great over the last two months with a 3.81 ERA over his last 10 starts and while his last two have been average, those were on the road. Over his last four home starts, he has a 2.96 ERA with Kansas City winning three of those four games. San Diego is coming off a 2-4 homestand and going back, it is 3-6 over its last nine games. The Padres are still sitting in the third spot in the National League Wild Card as they trail the Phillies by 2.5 games and are only a game and a half up on the Brewers so this is a big roadtrip coming up but they have struggled away from home after a blistering start. Joe Musgrove was sensational to start the season as he posted a 1.59 ERA in his first 12 starts, not allowing more than two earned runs in any of those games. Since then, he has been up and down with a 4.57 ERA in his last nine outings which includes a 5.78 ERA in four road starts. Here, we play on home teams batting .190 or worse over their last five games going up against an opponent batting .215 or worse over their last 10 games. This situation is 60-29 (67.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (976) Kansas City Royals |
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08-26-22 | Tigers +148 v. Rangers | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Detroit is coming off a 3-2 homestand and going back, the Tigers have won five of their last eight games, all underdog winners, and they are catching another big number, this time against a below average team at home. Detroit has not played well on the road where the offense has struggled but head to an offensive park in a good spot. After a very strong performance after getting called up last fall, Tyler Alexander made the rotation and struggled with an 8.78 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in four starts and was sent down to the Minors. He was recalled in June and has been solid with a 2.81 ERA in 10 relief appearances to open the second stint and most recently, five starts. Texas has won four of its last five games and going back, eight of its last 12 and it continues to be priced high at home despite the poor play. The Rangers are 27-34 here, dropping nearly 10 units in those games and this is a team that should not be laying these big numbers with no advantages on the mound. Glenn Otto has looked good over his last four starts but overall, he has a 4.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 19 starts including a 5.98 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in nine home outings with the Rangers going 3-6 in those games. Here, we play against American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg and after a combined score of 15 runs or more going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 35-18 (66 percent) since 1997. 10* (967) Detroit Tigers |
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08-25-22 | Yankees v. A's +190 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. The Yankees have quelled some of the slump chatter as they have won three straight games following a 6-14 run over their previous 20 games. After starting the season great on the road, they have struggled by going 4-14 over their last 18 games on the highway and are now just three games over .500. Jameson Taillon got off to a great start this season with a 2.70 ERA over his first 13 starts but has been inconsistent since then as he has posted a 5.64 ERA over his last 11 starts and New York has gone 4-5 in his last nine outings. Following a nine-game losing streak, Oakland has gone 5-4 over its last nine games with all five victories coming in at plus money and it is getting value again tonight against the highest publicly bet team in baseball. The Athletics have struggled at home this season but have leveled out by going 9-9 over their last 18 games here which has resulted in +4.2 units of profit. James Kaprielian has been very consistent over the last two months after a rough start to the season where he had a 6.31 ERA through his first nine starts but has a 2.88 ERA since then, covering 11 starts and has not allowed more than three runs in any of those outings. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -175 or more batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 31-22 (68.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Oakland Athletics |
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08-25-22 | Twins +160 v. Astros | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. The Twins have picked a bad time to fall into a slump as they have lost five straight games and are now four games behind the Guardians in the American League Central. They are also four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League, tied with the White Sox and a game and a half behind the Orioles. Minnesota is five games under .500 on the road and are underpriced with this pitching matchup. Chris Archer has been very good this season as he has allowed more than three runs only three times in his 21 starts and after a pair of poor outings to end July, he has a 3.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his four August starts. Houston has won three games in a row and has won 13 of its last 20 games to maintain its 12.5-game lead over Seattle in the American League West. Coupled with the recent play of the Yankees, the Astros have a 3.5-game lead over New York for the best record in the American League and despite being 23 games over .500 at home, they are just up a little over seven units of profit. Luis Garcia got off to a fine start with a 3.07 ERA in his first 10 starts but has posted a 4.97 ERA in his last 12 starts and has been bailed out with strong run support from the offense. Here, we play on underdogs after four straight games where they had seven or fewer hits, starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing. This situation is 59-47 (55.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (915) Minnesota Twins |
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08-24-22 | Diamondbacks v. Royals +112 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 112 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Arizona snapped a three-game losing streak with a 7-3 victory over Kansas City last night in this series opener to win five of its last eight road games. Overall, the Diamondbacks are 24-34 on the highway where they are hitting just .228 which is No. 24 in baseball. Zac Gallen has been lights out of late as the has not allowed a run over his last three starts with each of those covering at least seven innings which is the reason the Diamondbacks are the favorites here in a contrarian matchup. Kansas City is 3-9 over its last 12 games but that includes a 1-6 record over its most recent roadtrip and while going 20-40 on the road, it is 30-35 at home and down just a couple units. The makeshift offense has struggled of late but the Royals are hitting .256 at home which is tied for No. 7 in the league. Brady Singer has put up some solid numbers of late with a 1.40 ERA over his last three starts and going back, he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last nine starts with Kansas city going 7-2 in those games, the two losses coming against the White Sox and Yankees on the road. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games, in August games. This situation is 43-12 (78.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Kansas City Royals |
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08-24-22 | Cardinals v. Cubs +190 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 190 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. The Cardinals remain red hot as they have won nine of their last 10 games following a sweep at Arizona to open this roadtrip and going back, they have won 20 of their last 25 games. They have built a five and a half game lead over the Brewers in the National League Central and most of their damage has come at home where they are 40-21 and despite the sweep over the Diamondbacks, they are still right at .500 on the road. Miles Mikolas is coming off a gem at Arizona as he allowed just one run on two hits over eight innings but despite that, he still has a 4.23 ERA on the where in 13 starts where the Cardinals have gone 6-7. The Cubs have been playing their best baseball of the season as they had a five-game winning streak snapped with a 5-2 loss against Milwaukee on Sunday and going back, they have won 12 of their last 19 games including a 7-5 run at home that includes three series wins. Chicago is 10 games under .500 at home and down just over even money but most of the defeats were earlier in the season at a favorite price. Luke Farrell will get the ball for the Cubs in his first start of the season and while not expected to go long, he is backed by a solid bullpen. Here, we play against road teams off a win of eight runs or more over a division rival and starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 32-17 (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) Chicago Cubs |
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08-22-22 | Braves v. Pirates +175 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. The Braves have been the hottest team in baseball over the last two and a half months as they are 52-21 since June 1 and after the Sunday loss, they have still won 11 of their last 13 games. Atlanta now trails the Mets by four games in the National League East and it hits the road where it is 33-24 but up only 3.4 units. Jake Odorizzi is having a decent season on the mound with a 4.15 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 15 starts with his home/road splits fairly identical. The has allowed five runs or more three times and while one of those was against the Mets, the other two came against Oakland and Kansas City, two of the six lowest OPS hitting teams in baseball so he has struggled against non-productive teams. The Pirates have not gotten off to a great start in this nine-game homestand as it lost its first two series against the Red Sox and Reds and while they are 26-33 at home, the Pirates are in the plus moneywise. The offense has been inconsistent but are not in an overly difficult pitching matchup here. Roansy Contreras is one of the top pitching prospects in the Pirates organization and he showed some flashes as he allowed three runs or less in seven of eight starts and in his first start since re-entering, he allowed four runs in six innings against the Red Sox as his command was off but a bounce back is expected. He faces a solid lineup but one that strikes out a lot and he had a solid performance in his first start against them. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 3.70 and 4.20 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who lasts less than five innings per start. This situation is 59-41 (59 percent) since 1997. 10* (952) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-22-22 | Angels +191 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Monday Double Play. After winning the opener against Detroit, the Angels dropped the final two games as the offense struggled throughout with just four runs total in the three-game set. They have lost five of their last six games and sit seven games under .500 on the road but the bullpen remains a strength with a 3.51 ERA and should get a decent amount of use here. Tucker Davidson is in his second stint in the rotation and he has been up and down with a couple poor outings against the Phillies and Mariners but allowed just three runs total in his other three starts, covering 16 innings. This is not a bad matchup as Tampa Bay is hitting just .231 against lefty starters while averaging 3.7 rpg. Tampa Bay took care of Kansas City on Sunday to win the four-game series 3-1 and going back, it has won seven of its last nine games. The Rays are once against tied with Toronto and just percentage points against of Seattle in the American League Wild Card standings with all three teams 2.5 games clear of the Twins and Orioles. They have been solid at home with a 38-23 record and are again priced to show that here. Jeffrey Springs has gotten off to a great start this season with a 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 16 starts and most of his recent action has been on the road. He has made only two home starts over his last nine outings and he has been average with a 4.91 ERA in those games against the Pirates and Guardians. Here, we play against American League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 41-23 (64.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-20-22 | Rangers +155 v. Twins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 155 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. We lost a tough one run game with the Rangers last night as a pair of back-to-back solo home runs in the first inning did them in and we are going back to them tonight. Texas concluded a 4-3 homestand with a 10-3 win over Oakland on Thursday as the bats came to life following a three-game stretch of scoring just five runs total but managed just the one run Friday. The Rangers are 26-32 on the road which is nothing great but they are plus money because of the large underdog numbers and while this one is not a huge one, it is a value dog with another very good pitching matchup. Glenn Otto has pitched well this season as he has allowed three runs or less in 15 of his 18 starts and has a 2.65 ERA over his last three. Minnesota swept the Royals prior to this series and has won four straight games as it is keeping pace in the American League Central, sitting one game behind the Guardians after possessing first place for much of the season. The Twins are 35-25 at home but up in units by a very small amount and they are another public favorite tonight. Chris Archer has been good but not great as he has yet to make it past five innings in any of his 20 starts so despite a decent 4.15 ERA, the Twins are 7-13 in those games. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 183-180 (50.4 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +82.1. 10* (977) Texas Rangers |
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08-20-22 | Royals +188 v. Rays | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Kansas City snapped a four-game losing streak with a 3-2 win over Tampa Bay in ten innings on Friday. The Royals had won six of nine prior to that and will be out to start another streak facing the second part of the Rays ace duo after getting by Shane McClannahan last night. Kansas City won for just the 20th time on the road and it is getting another favorable number in what is not a horrible pitching matchup. Kris Bubic had a 7.45 ERA through June, covering 11 starts but he has been great over the last two months with a 3.40 ERA over his last nine starts. This includes a seven-inning, two-run gem against Tampa Bay a month ago. Tampa Bay came into Friday on a 5-1 run and had moved into the top Wild Card spot in the American League and now it is at No. 3, just a half game ahead of Minnesota. The Rays are 36-23 at home and up only 3.8 units of profit and this is a tough spot against a left-handed starter where they are hitting just .228 while averaging 3.6 rpg. Drew Rasmussen is coming off a perfect game bid as he did not allow a baserunner through eight innings against the Orioles before it was broken up in the ninth inning. He has been pitching very well of late and has solidified wis spot as the No. 2 arm in the rotation but Tampa Bay has gone just 6-5 in his last 11 starts. Here, we play against American League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. this situation is 40-22 (64.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (973) Kansas City Royals |
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08-19-22 | BC v. Saskatchewan +5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Game of the Week. Saskatchewan snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over Edmonton last week and it heads back home trying to out an end to a two-game home losing skid. Injuries have played a role in the Roughriders 5-4 record and the big one has been quarterback Cody Fajardo who continues to play through his nagging knee injury and has done so while wearing a brace which has limited his running ability bit did score twice last week against the Elks. We are getting excellent value in this number as B.C. came here last month with the game listed as a pickem and now the Lions are laying a big number on the road in the second of three meetings in a span of four games. Saskatchewan is 24-11 ATS in its last 35 games against teams averaging 325 or more passing ypg. B.C. continues to play at a high level and it is coming off a thrilling 41-40 win over rival Calgary as it trailed 40-31 with just over two minutes remaining but closed with a pair of scores including the game-winning 25-yard field goal with five seconds remaining. That was a huge victory that kept the Lions within a game of first place in the West Division behind Winnipeg. They are 3-0 on the road including that win here last month and they have dominated in doing so, outgaining the three opponents by an average of 236.7 ypg and that is playing into this number that opened at 3 and has been steamed up to as much as 5.5 in some places. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off two straight division games. This situation is 180-120 (60 percent) since 1996. 10* (694) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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08-19-22 | Rangers +125 v. Twins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Texas concluded a 4-3 homestand with a 10-3 win over Oakland on Thursday as the bats came to life following a three-game stretch of scoring just five runs total. The Rangers are 26-31 on the road which is nothing great but they are plus money because of the large underdog numbers and while this one is not a huge one, it is a value dog with a very good pitching matchup that everyone is overlooking. Martin Perez was a big trade rumor around the deadline and rightfully so as he has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball. His .107 xISO is third best in the league while his barrel percentage is second best which is a big edge against one of the better power teams in baseball which he will limit here. Minnesota is coming off a home sweep of the Royals as it is keeping pace in the American League Central, sitting one game behind the Guardians after possessing first place for much of the season. The Twins are 34-25 at home but up in units by a very small amount and because of the small price here, the public is riding Minnesota hard with over a 70 percent backing. Dylan Bundy has been all over the map as in 20 starts, he has allowed two runs or less 11 times but has also allowed four runs or more seven times and will be facing a Rangers offense that is hitting .274 over their last seven games. Here, we play on American League teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better on the season and who walked five or more hitters last outing. This situation is 34-14 (70.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (925) Texas Rangers |
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08-19-22 | Angels v. Tigers +128 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. The Angels concluded a 2-4 homestand by getting swept by the Mariners in their three-game set and they hit the road where they are 25-31 and down 4.4 units on the season. The offense has been horrible away from home as Los Angeles is hitting .217 which is tied for second worst in baseball while averaging only 3.6 rpg. The Angels went 5-2 on their most recent roadtrip and it was the pitching that held up as they allowed only 2.4 rpg and we do not see that holding up here. Patrick Sandoval has a 3.47 ERA on the road but a WHIP of 1.52 comes along with that and after a hot start to the season, the Angels are 2-10 over his last 12 starts and comes in as a road favorite for just the third time this season. Detroit is coming off a 2-5 roadtrip to fall to 19-42 on the road which is the worst road record in baseball and it brings in the worst scoring differential in the American League but it has been much better at home despite riding a 1-6 record here heading into this homestand. The Tigers are in the plus against left-handed pitching and on the season, they are hitting .263 against lefties which is sixth best in baseball. Matt Manning will be making his sixth start since re-entering the rotation and he is coming off his worst outing last time out against the red hot White Sox. He has made two home starts against the Red Sox and Rays and has posted a 0.69 ERA and 0.61 WHIP, allowing just one run on five hits over 13 innings. Here, we play against teams batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games, after two straight games where the bullpen allowed four or more earned runs. This situation is 69-31 (69 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Detroit Tigers |
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08-18-22 | Bears v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 27-11 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Seattle heads home for its lone preseason game here and there will be some added incentive in front of the home crowd especially coming off a loss to Pittsburgh last week. Head coach Pete Carroll has taken winning in the preseason more importantly than some other NFL head coaches and he will be expecting his team to bounce back tonight. Word came out Wednesday that Seattle quarterback Drew Lock tested positive for COVID and will not play on Thursday meaning Geno Smith will get the start and it is far from a downgrade. Smith has gotten almost all of the reps with the first-team offense in training camp practices as well as all but one series in its mock game. He is expected to play the entire first half. It is a rebuilding season in Chicago as they have a new coach in Matt Eberflus and the players are still getting used to the new schemes. Chicago is coming off a win over Kansas City in its preseason opener and does not have a lot of room to get ready for this one with just a five-day window in-between games. Eberflus plans only to play his starters between six to 10 snaps against the Seahawks. This includes starting quarterback Justin Fields who looked decent against the Chiefs in the win last week but the first string offense failed to put points on the board. In the preseason, Seattle is 29-13 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses. 10* (402) Seattle Seahawks |
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08-18-22 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -135 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our A.L. East Game of the Year. Both Toronto and New York have been playing some poor baseball recently. The Blue Jays had lost eight of 10 games prior to their win on Wednesday against Baltimore that got them back into the No. 2 spot in the American League Wild Card, tied with Tampa Bay and a game and a half behind Seattle. There has been a four-game flip over the past 10 games and now this makes this a huge series with the Yankees before starting another big one next week at Boston. They are in a tough spot with Jose Berrios on the hill as he currently is the worst pitcher in baseball among qualified starters as he has the worst wOBA, xWOBA and xISO and it is not really even close. His road numbers are even worse as just as a general guide, he has a 7.50 ERA in 11 road outings. New York had dropped 11 of its last 13 games prior to its extra-inning win over Tampa Bay on Wednesday and even with that, the Yankees have lost five straight series. Going back further, New York is 9-17 over its last 26 games and it has lost hold of the best record in the American League so while this is a big series for Toronto, the same goes for the Yankees. Frankie Montas is making his third start with the Yankees and after getting lit up by the Cardinals in his first one, allowing six runs over three innings, he settled down against Boston and gave up two runs over five innings and now he makes his Yankee Stadium debut as a member of the home team. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.50 or worse over his last 10 starts. This situation is 38-15 (71.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (966) New York Yankees |
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08-17-22 | Padres -140 v. Marlins | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our National League Game of the Month. San Diego has lost the first two games of this series and has dropped three of its last four and it now sits just one game ahead of the Brewers for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Padres are now 32-30 on the road and is down just over a unit of profit but the numbers remain good as they are hitting .248 while averaging 4.8 rpg, with the former being ranked No. 5 in the National League. Mike Clevinger has been really good since entering the rotation following his injury as he has a 3.31 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with San Diego going 9-4 in his 13 starts. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 of those, the three exceptions being against the Dodgers, the Rockies at Coors Field and the Mariners. San Diego is 44-23 against National League teams with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season. Miami has won two games in a row following a four-game losing streak and a 2-8 run over its previous 10 games. The Marlins are 25-32 at home and have dropped 13 units so they have been a betting favorite here based on the lines and while an underdog again today, it is not a significant number. Pablo Lopez got off to a sensational start for the Marlins as he had a 1.83 ERA in his first 10 starts but has put up a 4.99 ERA over his last 13 outings. This includes an 8.77 ERA in his last three home starts and Miami has gone 3-6 in his last nine home starts. Miami is 4-17 as a home underdog this season. Here, we play against National League underdogs with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season, in August games. This situation is 177-65 (73.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (905) San Diego Padres |
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08-16-22 | Mets +134 v. Braves | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. New York has won 10 of its last 13 games and while things tightened up for a little bit in the National League East, the Mets are 4.5 games up on the Braves with this being a critical part of the series with the bottom end of the rotation pitching the first two games before throwing out Scherzer and deGrom in the final two games. New York is 35-22 on the road and up close to 9 units with this being the start of a big 10-gme roadtrip. Taijuan Walker has been a solid addition to the Mets rotation as he has a 3.43 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 20 starts including a 3.37 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 11 road outings and he has some business to take care of as two starts back, he got lit up by his former team, allowing eight runs in just one inning, snapping a streak of nine straight starts allowing three or fewer earned runs. The Braves roll into Tuesday riding a seven-game winning streak which came after losing four of five to the Mets as they try to keep pace but the Mets are not giving in. Atlanta is firmly entrenched with the top Wild Card spot in the National League, sitting six and a half games ahead of the Padres. The Braves are 38-22 at home but up just 4.6 units which is an indication to the big favorite lines and that is the case here in what should be much closer to a pickem. Charlie Morton has been all over the place and has a 4.26 ERA on the season which is not horrible but he has allowed four runs or more in seven of his last 14 starts including three of his last five which equates to a 4.40 ERA in those five outings. While Walker has struggled against the Braves, Morton has allowed nine runs in 10.2 innings against the Mets in two starts this season. Here, we play against National League teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and with a WHIP of 1.10 or less over his last 10 games. This situation is 42-18 (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (957) New York Mets |
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08-16-22 | Red Sox v. Pirates +126 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Boston is coming off a series win over the Yankees and has won three of its last four games following a four-game losing streak. The Red Sox are two games under .500 and are sitting 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League which is not insurmountable but there are three teams in front of them that have been playing a lot better over the short-term. The road has been ok where they are a game under .500 but are dead even in units which is due to numbers like this. Nick Pivetta had a nice run in May and June but he has struggled of late with a 7.97 ERA over his last seven starts with Boston losing five of those including both on the road by a combined score of 21-4. We lost with Pittsburgh on Sunday as a +200 underdog as it carried a lead into the ninth inning but allowed a walk-off home run to get swept which included a 2-8 roadtrip but the Pirates return home where they are a respectable 24-29 and are up 3.9 units with the majority falling into underdog spots which is the case again here. This is a suspect line because it is the Red Sox and the pitching matchup is actually in the favor of Pittsburgh. Mitch Keller gets the ball for Pittsburgh and he has a 4.32 ERA on the season which is due to a poor start with an ERA of 6.28 in his first seven starts. He has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his last 13 outings and he has a 2.23 ERA over his last six starts. One big positive is that he has allowed just 10 home runs all season and Boston has been very average with the long ball. Here, we play against American League road teams with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season, after a combined score of three runs or less. This situation is 200-105 (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (980) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-15-22 | Mariners +118 v. Angels | Top | 6-2 | Win | 118 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. Seattle heads to Los Angeles on a two-game losing streak to lose its series with the Rangers and it remains in second place in the American League Wild Card standings, 2.5 games behind Toronto. They are 31-28 on the road and are up 10 units on the highway and are getting a good price based on the starting pitching matchup and not the overall records. Luis Castillo is part of that matchup and is not getting the respect after two great outings against the Yankees and overall, he has a 2.71 ERA in 16 starts including a 2.36 ERA in eight road starts. Seattle is 29-14 against teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. The Angels have been playing a lot better of late as they have won five of their last six games including a series win over the Twins to open this six-game homestand. Los Angeles is 26-33 at home but are down close to 18 units although a lot of that was midseason when they went through that horrible stretch. Shohei Ohtani has put together three straight solid starts after getting lit up by the Braves and his numbers are nearly identical to those of Castillo with a 2.68 ERA overall and a 2.25 ERA at home. The Angels are 4-12 against American League starting pitchers whose ERA is 2.90 or better this season. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 177-174 (50.4 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +79.1. 10* (925) Seattle Mariners |
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08-15-22 | Dodgers v. Brewers +154 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. The Brewers lost their series with St. Louis and are now a game and a half behind the Cardinals in the National League Central while also sitting outside the National League Wild Card race so this is a pretty big series with the Dodgers in town. Milwaukee is 29-22 at home yet down units because of the favorite prices which is not the case here. Freddy Peralta is making his third start since coming back into the rotation after being out since May and they have gone alright as he has been limited but will progressively up his pitches and innings and has a great bullpen behind him that has a 2.02 ERA over the last seven games. Milwaukee is 52-32 in its last 84 games against teams with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. The Dodgers had their 12-game winning streak snapped on Sunday as they were shutout in Kansas city 4-0, ending a streak of scoring eight or more runs in six of their last seven games. Los Angeles is 39-19 on the road but the units are just over +6 because of the big numbers. Julio Urias has put together five straight quality starts and overall has had a great season but is overpriced on the road against a solid lineup that has hit the fourth most home runs in baseball. The Dodgers are 5-15 in their last 20 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between .540 and .620. Here, we play against National League road teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 31-17 (64.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-14-22 | Pirates +227 v. Giants | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. Pittsburgh had won four of six games prior to coming to Arizona but it has gone 1-5 here and in Arizona to fall to 21-40 on the road and while it is 19 games under .500, the Pirates are down just 5.1 units and overall, they are down just two units. There is value here with what looks like a huge disadvantage in the starter pitching matchup but that is not really the case. Zach Thompson got lit up at the end of July against the Phillies and Marlins, allowing seven runs in each outing but has recovered with a couple decent efforts since then. Prior to those two games, he had a 4.09 ERA in his first 15 starts, allowing two runs or less in 11 of those. The Giants have won five of their last seven games to move to one game under .500 and are now 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. It is unlikely they can reach that but will continue to plod along and come in as a massive favorite once again despite a big drop off from the first two starting pitchers in this series. Alex Wood has put up very similar numbers to Thompson as his overall ERA in fewer than a run less and has allowed five runs or more in four of his 22 starts. The Giants have lost five of his last eight outings and in 10 home starts, he has a very pedestrian 4.42 ERA. Here, we play against National League favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 hitting .250 or worse and starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 23-15 (60.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (963) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-14-22 | Orioles +152 v. Rays | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. The red hot Orioles were cooled off by Shane McClannahan on Saturday despite getting to him for an early two runs. Baltimore is 8-3 over its last 11 games and since early July, it is 24-10 in its last 34 games to get into this position. The Orioles are just 26-33 on the road but are up 6.6 units thanks to lines like the one today. Jordan Lyles had a rough June and since then, he has a 3.27 ERA since then in eight starts and that includes one blow up here in Tampa Bay so he has been really good over the last month and a half. He lost his first two starts against the Rays this season but bounced back two weeks ago with a solid effort, allowing no runs on three hits in 5.2 innings. Tampa Bay leapfrogged the Orioles once again as it is a half-game up for the final Wild Card spot in the American League despite playing pretty poorly for a while now. The Rays are just 8-12 since the All Star break after going in on a 6-1 run so the time off killed some of that momentum. Tampa Bay is 34-22 at home but up just 3.8 units. Drew Rasmussen has been solid all season with a 2.96 ERA in 19 starts including a 2.01 ERA in eight home starts. He was pulled after just three innings in his last start against the Tigers a week ago for no apparent reason as he did not allow a hit so there could be some cause for concern. Here, we play against American League teams averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70. This situation is 35-10 (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (967) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-12-22 | Twins v. Angels +119 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Minnesota stays on the west coast riding a three-game losing streak and the Twins are now two games behind the Indians in the American League Central after being in first place for the majority of the season. Minnesota is 26-28 on the road and while hitting the ball well, they have struggled against lefties, hitting just .238 while averaging just 4.2 rpg. Tyler Mahle will be making his second start since coming over from Cincinnati and his first one was not great as he allowed four runs on five hits including three home runs against the Blue Jays over six innings and while the matchup is better, it is not ideal being his first on the road. The Angels are riding a three-game winning streak following a sweep at Oakland and while home has not been great this season, that is being taken into account in this number. They are down a ton of units at home but that was early in the season when their lines were inflated. Patrick Sandoval gets the ball for the Angels and while Shohei Ohtani gets all the press, Sandoval has had a great season. He has a 3.22 ERA over 18 starts which includes a 2.98 ERA in nine home starts. He has allowed five runs three times in his last 13 starts but those were against the Braves, Astros and Blue Jays and he has allowed two runs or less in the 10 other outings. Here we play against teams batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games, after two straight games where the bullpen allowed four or more earned runs. This situation is 69-30 (69.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (976) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-12-22 | Toronto v. Hamilton +1.5 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TIGER-CATS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. We won with Toronto last week as it defeated Hamilton 34-20 as a one point favorite at home and now comes in as a road favorite and the normal venue switch would make the Argonauts the dog here. Toronto has won three of its last four games and has a sizable lead in the East Division at 2.6 games over Hamilton and Montreal. Five of the Argonauts seven games have been at home and are 1-1 on the road. Toronto benefitted from an interception returned for a touchdown as well as a kick return for a touchdown so the game was closer than the final score indicates as Toronto was actually outgained by 91 total yards. The big reason for the line switch is that Matthew Shiltz will be starting over Dane Evans who is listed as doubtful but he will be facing a Toronto defense that has been vulnerable against the pass, allowing 277.9 ypg through the air. Despite the 2-6 record, Hamilton has outgained five of eight opponents and is +28.6 ypg in differential on the season. On defense, Hamilton is No. 2 in the CFL against the pass and will have to continue to get to the quarterback after registering three sacks last week. Here, we play on home underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, in weeks 10 through 15. This situation is 45-16 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (684) Hamilton Tiger-Cats |
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08-12-22 | Tigers +200 v. White Sox | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. We played against Chicago on Thursday and will go against the White Sox again as this team is showing no consistency. . The White Sox are back to .500 and sit three and a half games behind Cleveland in the American League Central and is four and a half games out of the final Wild Card spot. They are 18-16 over their last 34 games and while a return home would be good for most, Chicago is 25-29 at home and down 15.4 units and are laying another big number. Michael Kopech has good numbers overall but he is just 1-4 at home in 10 starts with Chicago going 3-7 in those games. Detroit is coming off a loss against Cleveland on Thursday as it was swept by Guardians in the three-game set and admittedly it has been a rough stretch but this is a great price in a great situation as the public is all over the White Sox based on the pitching matchup which is not as good as it seems. We are taking a shot with Daniel Norris who did not get out of the second inning against the Dodgers in his last start but will be facing a totally different lineup that has struggled to score runs of late, scoring three runs or less in seven of their last eight games. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 176-168 (51.2 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +83.8. 10* (967) Detroit Tigers |
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08-12-22 | Falcons v. Lions +1 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for out NFL Friday Enforcer. This is the only home preseason game for Detroit which may not play a huge factor but the value is in this number and with all of the hype around head coach Dan Campbell, this will be a motivated sideline to get the win to get the fanbase a little excited. Per Michigan Live, the plan is for the Lions first string to play about a quarter which is a benefit with a young roster. After Jared Goff sits at quarterback, Tim Boyle and David Blough will split the rest of the snaps under center and both have plenty of experience even though their regular season numbers are not good, that makes no difference here, especially going up against backups and rookies trying to make the team. Matt Ryan is gone and Marcus Mariota will take over the starting spot this season and indications are the Falcons will play their starters around one quarter on Friday via the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The difference here as opposed to the Lions who will be playing veteran backups, the Falcons are planning to get a long look at rookie Desmond Ridder under center. While the Lions went 0-3 in the preseason last year, they were competitive and Atlanta also went 0-3 with three big losses so the motivation level for Arthur Smith does not seem to be there and there is more interest in the development of the younger players to help fill numerous holes. 10* (110) Detroit Lions |
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08-11-22 | Titans +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-23 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our AFC Preseason Game of the Month. The public will be flocking on the Ravens in their preseason opener based on their success over the last few years as they have gone 20-0 straight up and 18-2 ATS over their last 20 games. The linemakers hands were forced to make them a slightly over than typical home favorite in the preseason which is -3 taking home field into consideration and then adjusted based on matchups and info on playing time but that is not the case here. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, tight end Mark Andrews, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, safety Marcus Williams and outside linebacker Justin Houston are among the players who will be sitting out this game and very likely all of the others as Baltimore will be taking precautions to avoid injuries after running back J.K. Dobbins was injured in the preseason last year and had to miss the entire season. As for Tennessee, the rotation is still unclear on whether Ryan Tannehill will see any action in the opener and if he does, it will be just one series at most. There will be a quarterback battle for the backup spot between Logan Woodside and rookie Malik Willis with Woodside sitting No. 2 after the first depth chart release. He will get the majority of the snaps and knowing the system definitely helps. He was solid in the preseason last year, going 29-40 (72.5 percent) for 248 yards with three touchdowns and one interception and while Willis is new, he has had a good camp and will be an unknown to the Ravens as he can get it done with a very solid deep game as well as with running the ball. Running back Derrick Henry will not suit up for any of the preseason games which was announced prior to camp even opening. We are grabbing the value and going against the masses that have driven this line from the opener of -2.5 to its current number of over a field goal. 10* (107) Tennessee Titans |
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08-11-22 | Pirates +163 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. Pittsburgh had won four of six games prior to coming to Arizona but dropped the first two games of this series on Monday and Tuesday to fall to 20-37 on the road and while it is 17 games under .500, the Pirates are down just 3.4 units and overall, they are down less than a unit. There is value here with what looks like a huge disadvantage in the starter pitching matchup but that is not really the case. J.T. Brubaker has been pretty stead this season as in 21 starts, he has allowed three runs or less in 15 of those while allowing five runs or more only twice. He has not gone deep many times but is backed up by a Pirates bullpen that is pitching better with a 3.48 ERA over their last seven games. He has received awful run support, hence his 2-10 record. Arizona has won five of its last seven games but the tough season continues as it is nine games under .500 and likely guaranteed another losing season. The Diamondbacks have been better at home where they are 31-28 but this is a big number to lay despite the solid season from Merrill Kelly. He has a 2.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 11 starts where Arizona is a dead even 11-11 and his home numbers are basically the same yet the Diamondbacks are just 4-8 in his 12 outings at home. He has allowed two runs or less in seven straight starts but Arizona has not taken advantage, going just 4-3 with the last defeat coming against Colorado as a -180 favorite. Arizona is 24-72 against the money line in its last 96 games against a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start. Here, we play against National League home teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season going up against an starter with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 35-22 (61.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (905) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-11-22 | White Sox v. Royals +160 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 160 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
his is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. The White Sox are two games over .500 and sit a game and a half behind Minnesota and Cleveland in the American League Central and is two games out of the final Wild Card spot. They are 18-14 over their last 32 games which includes a 9-7 record on the road where they actually have been solid overall this season but are again priced up here yet for the obvious reason but it has taken a tumble. This is contrarian as it can get as we are going against Dylan Cease who is the hottest pitching in baseball over the last two-plus months as he has a 0.59 ERA over his last 13 starts with Chicago going 11-2 in those games including 6-0 on the road so we know who the public is on here but the number has come down as we are seeing a reverse line move which is rare in baseball. Kansas City has won six of its last 10 games and is hanging around despite giving away two of its top hitters at the trade deadline and come into the game six games under .500 at home. The Royals are catching a good number here because of the opposing starting pitcher but not taken into consideration as much is their own starter. Zack Greinke certainly is not the pitcher he once used to be but he has had a good season with the exception of a few bad starts on the road. At home, he has a 2.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nine starts with the Royals going 6-3 in those games and in those nine games, he has allowed two runs or less eight times and he is not facing a potent offense that has struggled to score of late. Here, we play against American League road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with an OBP of .320 or less and starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.35. this situation is 40-18 (69 percent) since 1997. 10* (914) Kansas City Royals |
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08-10-22 | Braves v. Red Sox +130 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Atlanta lost four of five games against the Mets over the weekend which pretty much knocked it out of the National League East race as it is now seven games out. The Braves still hold down the top Wild Card spot in the National League and they remain on the road where they are 27-24 but down close to three units. The offense has struggled on the highway overall and the bullpen has been which has been solid has posted a 5.40 ERA. Kyle Wright is coming off a poor outing against the Mets which snapped a streak of seven straight Braves wins in his starts and faced a potent offense once again. Boston has fallen five games out of the final Wild Spot in the American League after a 3-4 roadtrip and it is now under .500 at home after a great run in June as it has not recovered from that 28-run outburst by Toronto. The Red Sox said they were selling at the trade deadline but shifted gears and made a few moves to make one more run with a schedule loaded with divisional games over the final two months. Nick Pivetta had a horrible July but rebounded with a decent effort against the Royals last time out and has been really good at home with a 1.25 ERA in five home starts before July. Here, we play against National League teams with an OBP .310 or less and with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start going up against an American League starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.30 and 1.35. this situation is 44-18 (71 percent) since 1997. 10* (978) Boston Red Sox |
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08-10-22 | Marlins +120 v. Phillies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Philadelphia has been on a roll with six straight wins and has won 11 of its last 12 games to move into the No. 2 spot in the National League Wild Card, three games behind Atlanta. The Phillies are 31-25 at home but are still down units despite being six games over .500 and while not a huge favorite here, they are in a bad spot to be laying any number. Noah Syndergaard made his first start with the Phillies last week and while he came in on a solid run prior to the trade, he allowed four runs in five innings while allowing 11 hits against the Nationals. Miami has lost eight of its last 10 games and is officially out of the Wild Card picture after making a run prior to this skid. The Marlins are 26-32 on the road but down just 2.6 units and over a quarter of those wins have come from the starter on Wednesday. Sandy Alcantara is coming off his second shutout of the season and continues to solidify being the favorite for the National League Cy Young. That shook off a poor outing against the Mets, his second one against New York where he allowed four runs and he is ready to continue his roll. The Marlins are 6-1 in their last seven road games against right-handed starters. Here, we play on National League teams with a an OBP of .310 or less and with a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.10 or better over his last 10 games going up against a starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.30. this situation is 28-10 (73.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (957) Miami Marlins |
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08-09-22 | Cardinals v. Rockies +167 | Top | 5-16 | Win | 167 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Fresh off a sweep over the Yankees, the Cardinals have now won seven straight games and they have moved into first place in the National League Central, two games clear of the Brewers. The last six wins came at home where St. Louis is 35-20, the third best home record in the National League but it is just 25-28 on the road and this is a place where even the best teams can have bad things happen. Miles Mikolas is coming off a quality outing at home against the Cubs but has a 5.40 ERA over his last three starts and in six career appearances, four starts, against the Rockies, he has a 5.92 ERA including an 8.44 ERA in three games at Coors Field. The Rockies are back home for a much needed change of scenery. Colorado has gone 5-13 since the All-Star break and lost six of eight on its most recent road trip against San Diego and Arizona. They dropped to 18-36 on the road, which is the second worst road record in baseball, a half-game better than Detroit, but they are 30-27 at home while showing +7.7 units of profit. Ryan Feltner will be making another spot start in place of Chad Kuhl and he has been up and down. His last four starts have been on the road and his one home start not against the Braves resulted in seven innings where he allowed just one run on one hit, a home run, against Miami. Here, we play on National League home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season and who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 30-14 (68.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) Colorado Rockies |
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08-09-22 | Guardians v. Tigers +171 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Cleveland took a pair of games against Houston over the weekend to force a series split of the Astros and the Guardians now trail Minnesota by just one game in the American League Central. They hit the road where they are 27-30, compared to 29-22 at home, and they are big favorites based on the starting pitching matchup which by name looks to be in their favor but not so much when looking deeper. Shane Bieber is coming off a pair of solid outings against the Rays and Diamondbacks to drop his ERA to 3.47 on the season but he has struggled on the road of late. Over his last three outings on the highway, he has a 5.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP covering 18.2 innings. Detroit lost three of four against Tampa Bay and has lost seven of its last nine games overall but have still been very competitive at home. The Tigers are 18-37 on the highway, which is the worst road record in baseball, but are 25-30 at home which is nothing special but have taken down some big underdog numbers of late, including a +225 win over Shane McClanahan, and have a chance for another one here. Tyler Alexander opened the season in the Tigers starting rotation but that lasted only four starts where he posted an 8.76 ERA and was send to the minors. He was recalled in mid-June and was solid out of the bullpen and has made two starts of late, allowing just four runs total. Here, we play against American League road teams with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season, after a combined score of two runs or less. This situation is 82-34 (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Detroit Tigers |
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08-08-22 | Nationals +166 v. Cubs | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our National League Game of the Year. We are going contrarian here with the Nationals as the Cubs have no business laying this number at home. Chicago was looking for the sweep on Sunday against Miami but was shutout 3-0 as it managed only two hits and has now lost six of its last eight games following a 7-1 run, following a nine-game losing streak, following a 6-2, well it goes on just showing the streakiness that has been going on. The Cubs have scored four runs or fewer in 13 straight games, averaging 2.5 rpg over this stretch which makes this a safe bet against the Nationals starter. The Cubs have been favored by -150 or more only six times all season, going 3-3 in those games. Keegan Thompson is coming off a bad start against the Cardinals and he has been all over the place after a great start. Washington got throttled on Sunday 13-1 against the Phillies for its fifth straight loss and while it lost a lot on offense at the trade deadline, the pitching has been lit up and with Anibal Sanchez on the hill, the Nationals are another public go against team. They have allowed an average of 9.0 rpg during the losing skid and that along with the starting pitcher, the number is big but inflated. Sanchez has made three starts since coming back to the bigs but the two bad ones came against the Cardinals and Mets, two of the best hitting teams in baseball while the Cubs are not near that. Here, we play against home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher with an ERA of 7.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 55-36 (60.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (953) Washington Nationals |
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08-07-22 | Pirates +155 v. Orioles | Top | 8-1 | Win | 155 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. Pittsburgh was coming off an impressive home sweep over the Brewers as it won the three-game set by profiting 6.65 units but it has given some back after losing the first two games of this series against the Orioles. The Pirates have had their road struggles as they are 19-35 and despite being 16 games under .500, they are only -3.2 units in profit and these are the late season situations we take advantage of which is taking a typical public fade that is getting a ton of return value as the numbers are based on records and not the actual inside material. Bryse Wilson gets the ball for Pittsburgh and this is another example of looking too much at the top end of numbers which shows a 7.31 ERA but that was after early struggles and has posted a 3.62 ERA over his last five starts since the start of April. Baltimore has been one of the hottest teams in baseball as they have won five straight games and 21 of their last 28 games to get right into the Wild Card race where they are now a game out of the final spot. The turnaround has been pretty incredible and the 56 wins this season have already surpassed their win totals in each of the previous four full seasons where the previous high was 54 wins in 2019. Spenser Watkins has been on a solid roll as he has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts but the interesting part is that in those eight games, he has been favored once and that was close to an even number at -105 and now he comes in as high as a -175, and this is the first time he has been a true favorite in 24 career starts. Here, we play on National League underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start. This situation is 29-20 (59.2 percent) over the last five seasons while netting +21.7 units of profit. 10* (925) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-07-22 | Astros v. Guardians +131 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 131 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. We won with the Guardians Saturday and we are backing them again as the lines again are not reflecting the back end rotation of Houston. The Astros had taken the first two games of this series behind two of their top starting pitchers and had won three straight overall prior to the 4-1 loss on Saturday. Houston is 12 games ahead of the Mariners in the American League West and it trails the Yankees by just a half-game for the top spot in the American League. They are 36-22 on the road and are up just 6 units because of the inflated lines and we have another one here with a mid-range starter. Christian Javier has been solid with a 3.69 ERA this season but is overpriced on the road where his ERA is 4.72 over seven starts. Cleveland snapped a two-game slide with the win yesterday, it has now won seven of its last 12 games to keep pace with Minnesota in the American League Central. The Guardians are two games behind the Twins and they are also two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Cleveland is 28-22 at home and up 5.5 units so there is definitely value in this number once again prior to them hitting the road for six games against the Tigers and Blue Jays. Triston McKenzie had two bad starts in late June against the Twins but has a 3.31 ERA in 19 starts overall including a 2.04 ERA in his last six outings. This includes a 1.71 ERA in three home starts where his home ERA is nearly identical as his overall ERA at 3.32. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 169-164 (50.8 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +76.4. 10* (914) Cleveland Guardians |
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08-06-22 | Hamilton v. Toronto -1.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO ARGONAUTS for our CFL Game of the Week. After a 0-4 start to the season, Hamilton has won two of its last three games but neither were overly impressive as they came against Ottawa and Montreal by a combined nine points and both of those were at home. The Ti-Cats hit the road again where they are 0-3 while getting outgained by 44.4 ypg. To their credit, all three of those games have come against the much tougher West Division but they do now face the strongest team from the East, albeit a 3-3 squad. Quarterback Dane Evans has put up a decent amount of yards but he is completing only 67.4 percent of his passes and has tossed nine picks to his nine touchdowns and was given off a few series last week which we should see again here. Going back, the Ti-Cats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. Toronto possesses the second best offense in the CFL as it is averaging 376.7 ypg and the problem has been getting the ball into the endzone as well as simply turning it over too much at the wrong times as it is averaging only 19.8 ppg but it is going up against a defense with the opposite effect. Hamilton in second in the league in total defense, allowing 350.0 ypg but is has given up 25.0 ppg which is No. 6 in the CFL and that is where the Argonauts can take advantage, especially at home. Quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson has been solid for the most part as he has thrown for 1,713 yards at a 71.4 percent completion rate but his six interceptions have cost him at times and he needs to cut those down. The Argonauts are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss. 10* (696) Toronto Argonauts |
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08-06-22 | Astros v. Guardians +142 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 142 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. The Astros have taken the first two games of this series behind two of their top starting pitchers. Houston is 12.5 games ahead of the Mariners in the American League West and it trails the Yankees by just a half-game for the top spot in the American League. They are 36-21 and are up just 7.5 units because of the inflated lines and we have another one here with a mid-range starter. Luis Garcia has put together a solid season with a 3.82 ERA overall but has shown some signs of wearing down as he has a 4.50 ERA over his last five outings. His numbers on the road have been better but Houston has not capitalized too often as it is 5-4 in his nine road starts as it has given him only 3.2 rpg of support and we see that continuing here. Prior to this series, Cleveland defeated Arizona 7-4 on Wednesday afternoon and after Friday, it has won six of its last 11 games to keep pace with Minnesota in the American League Central. The Guardians are two games behind the Twins and they are also two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Cleveland is 27-22 at home and up 4.2 units so there is definitely value in this number. Cal Quantrill gets the ball for the Guardians and he has had a very similar season to that of Garcia as he has a 4.08 ERA overall but has been much better at home. He has a 3.44 ERA in 11 home starts and he has gone 5-0 while Cleveland is 8-3 in those games and comes in as a home underdog for just the third time this season and the biggest one of all. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 166-161 (50.8 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +75.7. 10* (968) Cleveland Guardians |
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08-06-22 | Rays v. Tigers +234 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 234 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay has taken the first two games of this series following a 5-3 win last night and it has won three straight games while sitting two games behind Toronto for the top Wild Card spot in the American League. The Rays are now 24-28 on the road and are down 8.8 units of profit and the offense continues to struggle to score as they have the fourth fewest runs in the American League on the highway. We have played against Shane McClanahan in his last two starts against the Orioles and Guardians and won both and will go against him again because of the number and the matchup. He had been nasty and is laying a big price because of it as he allowed two runs or less in 14 straight starts but Cleveland lit him up for five runs last time out Tampa Bay has not given him much support as it has averaged 3.5 rpg in his last eight starts. Detroit has lost three straight and six of seven with four of those losses coming on the road and have fared better at home where the Tigers are 24-29 but down just over one unit in profits. They too have struggled with the offense but have been better at home as they are averaging 5.0 rpg over their last 13 home games. Garrett Hill counters for the Tigers and this will be his sixth start of the season since getting called up. He has not fared well on the road but has a 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in two home starts. Hill is a top prospect in the Tigers organization and was not rushed along and dominated in four Minor League seasons with a 2.70 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, bringing great command with his four-pitch repertoire. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 166-161 (50.8 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +75.7. 10* (970) Detroit Tigers |
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08-05-22 | Nationals +176 v. Phillies | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our N.L. Underdog Game of the Month. Washington caught a bit of a bad break last night as it tried to rally from a 5-1 deficit, eventually pulling to within 5-4 before the game was called after 4.5 innings for a Phillies win. The Nationals fell to 19-31 on the road but are down less than one unit of profit as the moneylines continue to be on their side, especially tonight. Washington has 11 hits in the five innings as it continues to hit well on the road and it now has a .257 average away from home which is the fifth highest in baseball. Josiah Gray is coming off a pair of below average outings since the break and he is back on the road where he has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in nine road starts. The Nationals are 6-1 against the money line in his last seven starts as a road underdog of +150 or more. The Phillies are now tied with St. Louis and/or Milwaukee, which are knotted in the National League Central, for the final Wild Card spot but they have not been great at home. They are two games over .500 here and while Noah Syndergaard deserved a 2-1 favorite price last night, Kyle Gibson does not. Since the end of June, he has a 6.00 ERA over six starts and he has had no real advantage at home where he has a 4.50 ERA in 11 outings. Here, we play against favorites with a money line of -110 or higher starting a pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest and with a bullpen that has thrown three innings or less over last two games. This situation is 28-12 (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (903) Washington Nationals |
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08-04-22 | Raiders v. Jaguars UNDER 30.5 | Top | 27-11 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS/JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS UNDER for our NFL HOF Game Totals Dominator. We get started Thursday with the first preseason game of the season and there is simply no matchup breakdown as this is purely a situational play that has cashed for years. The Hall of Fame Game is typically a very low scoring game as in this stage of the preseason, the defenses are a step ahead of the offense. Nine of the last 13 Hall of Fame games have stayed under the total, including seven of the last 10 and while those past outcomes do not predict future results, it does show how defenses are more in sync early in the preseason. Going back to 1984, only seven of the 35 HOF games have eclipsed 40 points and a lot of that is due to fluke plays. This includes an interception return for a touchdown taking place in five of the last six games that have gone over 40 points so simply avoiding that gives us a great opportunity to cash in a low scoring game. 16 of the 35 games have seen totals of 27 of less points scored including seven years ago when Pittsburgh and Minnesota tallied just 17 points combined and the last two have seen 24 and 19 points. Six years ago, the Hall of Fame game was canceled because of poor field conditions and of course 2020 was canceled because of COVID so those are not part of the averages. According to the collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and its players association, teams cannot hold training-camp practices more than two weeks before their first preseason game, so preparation has been limited on both sides. That affects the offenses more than the defenses and we will once again see the defenses have the advantage. Additionally, with this being the first game, offensive starters will see limited if any action. 10* Under (101) Las Vegas Raiders/(102) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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08-04-22 | Cubs +139 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS (GAME 2) as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. This is Game Two of the double-header between the Cubs and Cardinals. The Cubs came into Wednesday on three-game losing streak and the rainout might have been a needed break after two straight shutouts. They are 21-29 on the highway and have shown a very small net loss and it shows how the underdog prices have impacted the money. The Cubs have still won seven of their last 11 games and two of the losses against the Giants could have gone either way. Marcus Stroman has gotten on a roll since coming off the IL in July, posting a 0.89 ERA in four starts over 20.1 innings against the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and Giants. He just looks right which is what the Cubs were hoping for all season but an injury and COVID set him back and failed to get any consistency. St. Louis has been stuck in a rut since mid-June as it has gone 18-21 over its last 39 games and it has been unable to make a move on the Brewers in the National League Central, remaining three games out. The Cardinals are 30-20 at home and as is the case with the Cubs record and units being skewed, the same is the case with the Cardinals who are up just over four units because of inflated numbers. Jose Quintana will be making his first start with St. Louis since coming over from Pittsburgh and he has had a solid season although he had a 2.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at PNC Park and a 5.22 ERA and 1.41 WHIP everywhere else. Here, we play on National League teams with an OBP of .310 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games going up against a starting pitcher with a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.30. This situation is 28-10 (73.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) Chicago Cubs |
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08-04-22 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +5.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the MONTREAL ALLOUETTES for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. We played against Winnipeg last week as it came from behind to defeat Calgary to improve to 8-0 on the season. The two-time reigning Grey Cup champions have won 10 straight games going back to last season and the Blue Bombers have been far from dominant as they have been outgained in four of their seven games and on the season, they have been outyarded by over 15 ypg as they possess the No. 7 offense and No. 4 defense, which are not typical rankings for a 8-0 team. This is no doubt a letdown spot as after opening with four straight games against the East, the last four have come against the West including a pair over rival Calgary and this is the last of three straight road games and the first cross country trip. Montreal is coming off a loss against Hamilton which was its third in four games to fall to 2-5 on the season. The Alouettes have played better than that record as they have been outgained by just over eight ypg and they bring in the No. 6 ranked offense and defense which is certainly nothing special but they are close to being in the top half on both sides. Five of the first seven games have been on the road so this marks just the third home game of the season after starting 1-1. A one-point loss to Edmonton was not good but a 24-point win over Saskatchewan was a solid victory. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a close win by seven points or less over a division rival, in the first half of the season. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (692) Montreal Alouettes |
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08-04-22 | Astros v. Guardians +173 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. The Astros snapped a two-game losing streak with a 6-1 win over Boston on Wednesday which concluded a 4-3 homestand. Houston is 11 games ahead of the Mariners in the American League West and it trails the Yankees by two games for the top spot in the American League. They hit the road where they are 34-21 and are up just 5.5 units because of the inflated lines and we have one here with Justin Verlander on the hill and stepping in front of the ace of the staff can be dangerous but this is a good spot to do so against a Cleveland lineup hitting its stride of late. Cleveland defeated Arizona 7-4 on Wednesday afternoon and has won six of its last nine games to keep pace with Minnesota in the American League Central. The Guardians are a game behind the Twins and they are also a game out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Cleveland remains home where it is 27-20 and up 6.2 units so there is definitely value in this number. The Guardians have averaged 5.1 rpg over this nine-game stretch. Zach Plesac is coming off a rough outing against Tampa Bay but that was on the road where he has a 5.31 ERA in 11 starts but he has a 3.02 ERA in eight home starts and faces a Houston offense that is hitting just .234 on the road. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 163-158 (50.8 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +74.3. 10* (966) Cleveland Guardians |
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08-03-22 | Brewers v. Pirates +204 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 204 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Milwaukee leads the National League Central by two games over the Cardinals and looked more like sellers than buyers at the trade deadline. The Brewers have been on a solid 7-2 run but this price is absurd as it is more like Corbin Burnes is pitching (-290 Tuesday), not Freddy Peralta. He is making his first start since May 22 after hitting the 60-day IL with a teres major muscle strain and he comes in over a -200 favorite on the road. He will no doubt be limited in his pitch count and the Brewers bullpen will be on display for a while which is not ideal here as they no longer have the services of Josh Hader who was traded to the Padres and while he was not having the best season, he did have 29 saves. Additionally, the Milwaukee bullpen has struggled lately with a 5.04 ERA over its last seven games. The Pirates snapped a seven-game losing streak and were pretty quiet at the deadline, holding on who they needed to and look toward the future. Pittsburgh is 22-29 at home and down just over two units in profit so it has held its own when getting big numbers here. The Pirates are struggling on offense here but certainly are in good shape here knowing exactly what it is getting. Roansy Contreras has some revenge in play after Milwaukee tagged him for seven runs in 1.2 innings two starts back and other than that, he has allowed three runs or less in all of his other eight starts including two or fewer six times. Here, we play on National League home teams averaging 3.8 or fewer rpg and hitting .225 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 78-37 (67.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-03-22 | Royals +139 v. White Sox | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Kansas City was a seller at the trade deadline which came as no surprise but not quite to the extent that many thought as they unloaded Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees and then Whit Merrifield to the Blue Jays but that was about the most of it. It has the fifth best farm system in baseball and are eying the future but this is still a capable lineup with a decent matchup at an even better price. The Royals are 19-32 on the road and despite being 13 games under .500, they have taken advantage of big numbers are they are down just over two units of profit. Brady Singer has had two bad starts this season and other than that, he has been terrific. Overall, he has a 3.42 ERA in 13 starts and that drops to 2.48 in 11 starts taking those two duds out. We have played against the White Sox numerous times as they remain in limbo, sitting at 51-51 and did nothing at the trade deadline to make a late season push as the lone transaction was getting pitcher Jake Diekman from Boston. Many thought more would be on the way as they are just three games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League but that did not happen. They come in as a significant favorite on Wednesday with a pitcher that has been awful as Lance Lynn sports a 6.42 ERA and 1.34 WHIP and that goes north of 7.00 taking out his first two starts of the season. The long ball has killed him, allowing 10 over nine outings. Here, we play against American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 hitting .260 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40 on the season going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.60 or better and a WHIP of 1.30 or better. This situation is 41-26 (61.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (923) Kansas City Royals |
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08-02-22 | Cubs +151 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
his is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Chicago remains on the road after it lost three of four in San Francisco to fall to 21-28 on the highway but have not shown a net loss and although the gain has been minimal, it shows how the underdog prices have impacted the money. The Cubs have still won seven of their last 10 games and two of the losses against the Giants could have gone either way. The pitching has been great over this stretch as they have allowed 2.8 rpg in the ten games and send Keegan Thompson to the hill and he has had a good season with a 4.04 ERA and while his road numbers plummet, that was due to two bad starts and his ERA in the others is 1.801 over 20 combined innings. St. Louis has been stuck in a rut since mid-June as it has gone 17-21 over its last 38 games and it has been unable to make a move on the Brewers in the National League Central, remaining three games out. The Cardinals are 29-20 at home and as is the case with the Cubs record and units being skewed, the same is the case with the Cardinals who are up just over three units because of inflated numbers. Basically, everything has been average with the bullpen being the real problem of late with a 6.05 ERA over the last week. Adam Wainwright is doing his thing despite his age and has been great at home as usual but St. Louis has gone just 5-4 in his nine home starts. Here, we play on underdogs after a game without an extra base hit and with a bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 10 games. This situation is 40-23 (63.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) Chicago Cubs |
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08-02-22 | Mariners +145 v. Yankees | Top | 8-6 | Win | 145 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. After a loss on Monday, Seattle has gone 4-7 over its last 11 games after riding a franchise-tying 14-game winning streak and is now three games behind Toronto for the top Wild Card spot and only 3.5 games ahead of five other teams so there is little room for error. The Mariners are 28-26 on the road but are up over eight units in profit thanks to some big underdog lines. They are 11 games over .500 against right-handed starters, gaining over 13 units in profit and have a good chance to bolster that here. Logan Gilbert has quietly put together a great season with a 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 21 starters with Seattle going 14-7 in those games. Since the All Star break, the Yankees are just 6-6 and while there is no sense of urgency with such a huge cushion in the American League, they will continue to be bet up which means big lines maintain. They are 41-13 at home and despite that +28 win differential, they are just a little over half of that in units which again comers down to the inflated numbers. Jameson Taillon has a 3.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season and those numbers increase slightly at home. The Yankees are 16-4 in his 20 starts but nine of those came against teams .500 or worse and he has gotten 5.9 rpg of support. This has been a great underdog situation as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 161-158 (50.5 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +71.2. 10* (967) Seattle Mariners |
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08-01-22 | Orioles +149 v. Rangers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 149 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our American League Underdog Game of the Month. The Orioles dropped the final two games of their three-game series at Cincinnati but have been playing better over the long haul after a poor 6-14 start and are 24-14 over their last 38 games. The offense has picked up over the latter part of this run, averaging 5.6 rpg over their previous 22 games and while they have not been great on the road overall with a 22-31 record they are plus units because of the lines they have gotten and this is another example. Spencer Watkins has been pitching very solid all season as he has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his 13 starts, posting a 4.03 ERA and 1.41 WHIP and his numbers on the road have been better as he has a 3.64 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over six starts. Texas won the series finale against the Angels on Sunday to take three of four in the series and head home with an overall record of 46-55 including 21-26 and have no business laying this number in what is not a big advantage on the mound. The Rangers are hitting .239 overall including .235 at home which is the sixth lowest home batting average in baseball. Jon Gray has been pitching extremely well this season with a 3.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 18 starts and again, he should not be favored this big in this matchup considering he has been an underdog in 14 of his 18 starts. Here, we play on road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start. This situation is 31-19 (62 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (913) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-31-22 | Mariners +125 v. Astros | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. After getting swept at Oakland, Houston has bounced back with three straight wins over Seattle to extend their lead in the American League West to 13 games and Sunday we can expect to see some rested players which has been outgoing for a while now. Jake Odorizzi started the season solid but since coming back into the rotation after a six-week layoff, he has a 5.91 ERA while facing Oakland three times and Kansas City once. Seattle has dropped six of nine games following a 15-game winning streak and is falling out in the Arican League Wild Card race after taking over the lead so this is a big game with the Yankees on deck. Gerige Kirby had a poor start against the Orioles at the end of June and take that out and he has posted a 1.82 ERA in his other eight starts since the end of May and he brings in a 2.67 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road. This has been a great underdog situation of late and it continues to even out which means big dog money even though this one is not as big because of the solid Seattle starter as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 158-155 (50.5 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +69. 10* (969) Seattle Mariners |
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07-31-22 | Guardians +190 v. Rays | Top | 5-3 | Win | 190 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay took out Cleveland 6-4 on Saturday to halt a 1-6 slide and now it comes into Sunday laying a big number. The Rays have been great at home and will be fully backed but there is too much value on the other side. We played against Shane McClanahan in his last start against the Orioles and we won and will go against him again because of the number and the matchup. He has been nasty and is laying a big price because of it as he has allowed two runs or less in 14 straight starts but Tampa Bay has not given him much support as it has averaged 3.1 rpg in his last eight starts. Cleveland has won three of five games after the Saturday loss and are three games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Guardians are now four games under .500 on the road and will send either Bryan Shaw or Kirk McCarty and either are viable options to keep it clean early and let the bullpen work it which has been solid of late with a 2.55 ERA over the last seven games. This has been a great underdog situation of late and it continues to even out which means big dog money as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 158-155 (50.5 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +69. 10* (967) Cleveland Guardians |
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07-30-22 | Cardinals v. Nationals +135 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 135 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Washington came off a successful 3-3 roadtrip for bettors as it picked up close to three units of profit thanks to big underdog wins. The Nationals lost the opener of this series on Friday 6-2 despite outhitting St. Louis 8-6 as they were done in by four sacrifice runs. Washington has struggled at home as it is 21 games under .500 but is catching a good number in a better pitching matchup. Erick Fedde has had an average season with a 4.95 ERA in 19 starts and he has been better at home with a 4.47 ERA in 10 outings and he has allowed three runs or less in nine of those with a poor start against Arizona in April was the lone clunker. St. Louis is 3-3 since the All Star break following the Friday win and the Cardinals are now 24-27 on the road. They remain 2.5 games behind the Brewers in the National League Central and the starting pitching has struggled on the road overall with a 4.96 ERA while allowing opponents to hit .271 Dakota Hudson has been all over the place this season and his home/road splits tell the story. He has a 2.98 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in nine home start but a 5.36 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in nine road starts and has allowed four runs or more in three of his last five on the highway. Here, we play against National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who lasts less than five innings per start. This situation is 52-31 (62.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (904) Washington Nationals |
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07-30-22 | A's +163 v. White Sox | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Oakland has been playing its best baseball of the season as it has won 12 of its last 20 games highlighted by a three-game home sweep over the Astros, the first one this season where they have been horrible. The road has been a lot better as the Athletics are 21-29, which is nothing great but have profited nearly five units thanks to lines like this. Paul Blackburn has the very rare home/road splits as he has an 8.31 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in eight home starts but has a 1.88 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 11 road outings where Oakland has gone 7-4. Chicago continues to struggle as it is 3-4 coming out of the break and is a game under. 500 which puts them four games behind the Twins in the American League Central. The White Sox are six games over .500 on the road but are now seven games under .500 at home where they have dropped close to 18 units yet continue to be overvalued. Johnny Cueto has been on a great run since allowing five runs against the Cubs as he has allowed three runs or less in his last nine starts but his offense has been inconsistent around him and the White Sox are 4-5 in those games. He too has opposite home/road splits and Chicago has gone 1-5 in his six home starts. Here, we play on teams starting a pitcher who allowed seven or more or more runs last outing going up against an opponent with a hot starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last three starts. This situation is 65-46 (58.6 percent) over the last five seasons while netting 36.6 units. 10* (921) Oakland Athletics |
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07-30-22 | Winnipeg v. Calgary +1.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALGARY STAMPEDERS for our CFL Game of the Month. After a 4-0 start, Calgary is coming off a loss against Winnipeg on the road as it was coming off a bye week and is now coming off another bye and back home playing with revenge. The Stampeders are 2-0 at home and have failed to cover either of those games and that brings some value as does the public love for the opponent. Calgary is ranked No. 2 in total offense while ranked No. 6 in total defense and it has outscored its opponents by close to 10 ppg while winning the yardage battle by 23 ypg. Bo Levi Mitchell has been as solid as always, completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,299 yards with seven touchdowns and just three picks. Winnipeg is off to a 7-0 start and the reigning Grey Cup champions have won nine straight games going back to last season. The Blue Bombers have been far from dominant as they have been outgained in four of their seven games and on the season, they have been outyarded by close to 28 ypg as they possess the No. 8 offense and No. 5 defense, which are not typical rankings for a 7-0 team. They have help opponents out of the end zone but have faced a slew of poor offenses and while Calgary managed just 297 yards in the first meeting, expect a bigger effort at home. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (686) Calgary Stampeders |
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07-29-22 | BC v. Saskatchewan +2 | Top | 32-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. B.C. opened the season 3-0 before getting thumped at home against Winnipeg but it bounced back last week with a win against Hamilton and comes in as the road favorite which is just its second road game of the season. After dominating their first three games, the Lions have been outgained in each of their last two games and have fallen back into normalcy. They still lead the league in offense as they are averaging 447.2 ypg but have a tough matchup here. B.C. has scored only 39 combined points the last two games, and now faces a Roughriders defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards in the CFL and leads the league in sacks with 26. The Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. Saskatchewan opened the season 4-1 but has lost its last two games as it was swept against Toronto in back-to-back games. The Roughriders are coming off their worst effort in a 10-point loss to the Argonauts as they were outgained by 377 yards and while that is keeping the betting market off of them, they were severely shorthanded as many players were out due to a COVID outbreak. Quarterback Cody Fajardo missed that game with a knee injury and COVID issues but is now listed as probably which is big as Jake Dolegala struggled as his replacement. The Roughriders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .50 or better after one or more consecutive losses against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 59-30 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (684) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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07-29-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies +197 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. We lost with Colorado Thursday and it was not close but we come back with the Rockies Friday against a once again overpriced Dodgers team. Prior to Thursday, the Rockies walked off against Chicago and we are playing them for a lot of the same reasons. Colorado snapped a four-game slide with a win on Sunday and then got the split with Chicago which followed a solid 8-2 run over the previous ten games so it has been playing better over the last three weeks after an uneven month and a half run. The Rockies are clearly a better team at home than on the road as at Coors Field, they are 29-24 while hitting .288 and averaging 5.8 rpg. Chad Kuhl is coming off a rough outing against Milwaukee but is one of the anomalies at home where he has a 3.52 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in eight starts at Coors Field. The fact that the Dodgers are 34 games over .500 but are just up over two units in profits shows how overpriced they have been and we are seeing that again here. They are 31-17 on the road but it is the same as the overall numbers as they are just over two units up in profits. Julio Urias has had a great season with a 2.72 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 19 start including a 2.48 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 road starts but there is the caveat of Coors Field where he has a 5.81 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in nine starts. Here, we play against National League road teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 30-15 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Colorado Rockies |
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07-29-22 | Mets v. Marlins +110 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. The Marlins rallied for a win over Cincinnati on Thursday to force the four-game series split and the Marlins head home where they are a game under .500 this season. Miami is still fighting for a National League Wild Card spot as it 7.5 games out and while that may seem insurmountable, there are only four teams ahead of the Marlins with 63 games remaining. They come into Friday as a home underdog with the Cy Young favorite taking the hill with revenge and that is a take. Sandy Alcantara has a 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through 20 starts including a 1.66 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 10 home outings. He has allowed two runs or less in 10 of his games and the last time he allowed more was six starts back when he gave up four runs against the Mets and do not think he has not forgotten that. The Mets are coming off a two-game sweep over the Yankees and have won three straight games to maintain their three-game lead in the National League East. They are 30-20 on the road with the starting pitching being the biggest weakness as they come in with a 4.24 ERA and they send Chriss Bassitt to the mound and he has been solid with a 3.63 ERA and 1.09 WHIP but his ERA rises to 4.47 in eight road starts and now has the pressure of facing the Cy Young favorite. The Mets are 13-23 in their last 36 road games after allowing three runs or less in two straight games. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start, playing on Friday. This situation is 52-28 (65 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (952) Miami Marlins |
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07-28-22 | Dodgers v. Rockies +195 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. The fact that the Dodgers are 33 games over .500 but are just up over one unit in profits shows how overpriced they have been and we are seeing that again here. Los Angeles avoided the home sweep against Washington with a 7-1 win on Wednesday and it is heavily priced Thursday on the road and these are the spots to go against. They are 30-17 on the road but it is the same as the overall numbers as they are just over one unit up in profits. Tyler Anderson has been very good in the bottom of the rotation as he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and has been nearly as good on the road but Coors Field is a different place and he has already experienced that once this season where he allowed four runs on a season high ten hits. We won with Colorado on Wednesday as the Rockies walked off against Chicago and we are playing them for a lot of the same reasons. Colorado snapped a four-game slide with a win on Sunday and then got the split with Chicago which followed a solid 8-2 run over the previous ten games so it has been playing better over the last three weeks after an uneven month and a half run. The Rockies are clearly a better team at home than on the road as at Coors Field, they are 29-23 while hitting .286 and averaging 5.9 rpg. Jose Urena has made four starts with the Rockies and in two at home, he has a 1.50 ERA. Here, we play on National League home teams hitting between .255 and .269 and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better. This situation is 175-95 (64.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) Colorado Rockies |
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07-28-22 | Phillies v. Pirates +185 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. After getting swept by the Cubs in their first series after the break, the Phillies took two of three against the Braves thanks to a 7-2 Wednesday to narrow the Wild Card gap in the National League. They hit the road where they are 25-22 and the offense has been right around average and Philadelphia has scored three runs or less in 11 of its last 16 games and is in a tough spot here although the line is saying otherwise. Zack Wheeler has been outstanding this season but his home/road splits tell more of the story as he has a 1.58 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 10 home starts but a 4.50 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in eight road starts. The Pirates are four games under .500 at home but are in the plus in the money thanks to getting numbers like this as the perception is they have a big disadvantage in the pitching matchup and over the last two and a half months, they do not. Zach Thompson got off to a rough start this season with a 10.05 ERA in his first four starts but instead of continuing the poor pitching he got really good really fast. Over his next 11 starts he posted a 2.62 ERA and he cashed some big underdog numbers and he has another one here. Coming off a bad start against Miami, expect a bounce back here. Here, we play on National League underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. This situation is 28-12 (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (904) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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07-27-22 | Astros v. A's +180 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 180 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. Houston and Oakland are close to 30 games apart so the Astros will again be a popular play here but the value is on the home team based on public perception steaming this number as well as the starting pitching matchup. Houston is cruising in the American League West and when they started to get threatened by Seattle, even though it was not a real threat, just a 15-game winning streak for the Mariner, they pulled off the sweep. They are going to coast in and are already taking health into consideration by resting starters each game. Christian Javier has been decent with a 3.62 ERA and 1.13 WHIP but he has struggled on the road with a 4.60 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in six outings while getting only 3.3 rpg of support. Oakland has struggled at home in all aspects but there are times to play the Athletics and this is one of those in a good situational spot. They have been playing better, winning six of their last nine games and the offense has led the way averaging 4.5 rpg. Cole Irvin is a pitcher than the common fan knows nothing about but he has been great and has had some luck because he plays for Oakland. He has a 2.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 17 starts and in nine home outings, his ERA is drops to 1.63 and his WHIP dips to 0.92 and Oakland has gone 4-5 in those games which is over 25 percent of its entire wins at home. Here, we play against American League road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with an on base percentage .320 or worse on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 75-47 (61.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (962) Oakland Athletics |
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07-27-22 | White Sox v. Rockies +129 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 129 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. The White Sox continue to flounder around .500 as the injury bug will not go away, the pitching has been very inconsistent and while it has had its moments, the bats have been even more up and down. They are playing solid on the road as they are 27-21 but in Colorado, this is not a typical road game as we all know anything can happen and while they can be on the plus side of that also, a home dog in this spot is the way to go. Overall, Chicago is ranked No. 17 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 21 in runs allowed per nine innings. Lucas Giolito has been all over the place this season as he has a 5.12 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 17 starts and while he has been slightly better on the road, pitching at Coors Field is not ideal for a pitcher that has allowed 5, 6, 7 and 8 runs in four of his last seven starts. Colorado snapped a four-game slide with a win on Sunday which followed a solid 8-2 run over the previous ten games so it has been playing better over the last three weeks after an uneven month and a half run. The Rockies are clearly a better team at home than on the road as at Coors Field, they are 28-23 while hitting .286 and averaging 5.9 rpg. Antonio Senzatela has not been in much better form but he has been decent at home as far as starting pitching standards are here with a 4.02 ERA and has allowed three runs or less in eight of his nine starts at home. Here, we play on home teams with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start and posting an ERA of 7.50 or higher over his last three starts. This situation is 43-27 (61.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (974) Colorado Rockies |
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07-27-22 | Braves -140 v. Phillies | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Getaway Game of the Month. Atlanta continues to make its move up the National League East as it is two games behind the Mets and while it was on a two-game slide, it came back with a big win on Tuesday to keep pace with New York. The Braves are 26-19 on the road and while they are not hitting great, they are averaging 4.7 rpg on the highway so they have been clutch when it counts. The pitching has been solid and the bullpen has led the way with a 2.90 ERA on the road and they face a Phillies offense that has been struggling. Charlie Morton had a bad start against the Mets prior to the All Star game but bounced back by shutting out the Angels over six innings in his last outing and he has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts. The Phillies are now three games over .500 including a .500 record at home and they are running out of time in the National League East as they are nine games out of first place and have fallen three games out of the final Wild Card spot. Philadelphia has scored three runs or less in 11 of its last 15 games and is in a tough spot here to get the bats going that were on fire at one point. The Phillies send Kyle Gibson to the hill who has put together a pair of good starts over his last five but the other three have been awful and his ERA over this five-game stretch is 6.75. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with an on-base percentage of .350 or less and with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a team with a bullpen with a WHIP of 1.35 or better. This situation is 233-101 (69.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (951) Atlanta Braves |
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