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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-01-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Minnesota Twins +156 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 156 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
After winning two of three against Houston over the weekend, the Twins improved to 8-2 over their last 10 games and are now just a game out of the second American League Wild Card spot behind the Rangers. Despite a 40-25 record at home, Minnesota has been a home underdog in 47 of those 65 games and is fourth best in baseball with +18.2 units won in home games. They have won eight of their last 10 games as underdogs and going back, are 24-10 in their last 34 games against teams with a losing record. The White Sox are coming off a 3-4 homestand but are still over .500 at home yet are just 28-36 on the road. Even worse, coming off a homestand of four or more games, the White Sox are a dreadful 5-24 in their last 29 road openers. They send their ace to the hill tonight which is the reason for the road favorite price but it is certainly skewed. He does have solid numbers on the road but he has gotten solid run support which has upped the win totals but this is not the spot to play on him as the White Sox are 2-10 in his 12 starts as a road favorite between -125 and -150. Tyler Duffey counters for the Twins and after getting lit up by the Blue Jays in his Major League debut, he has posted a 1.89 ERA over his last three starts with the Twins winning all of those. He did not allow any runs while giving up just one hit in his only home start thus far. 10* (922) Minnesota Twins |
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09-01-15 | Seattle Mariners +168 v. Houston Astros | Top | 7-5 | Win | 168 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
The Astros took the opener of this series last night and stretched their lead in the American League West to four games over the Angels. Tonight they come in as the biggest consensus play of the night, a big reason being their four-game home winning streak and overall home record as well. Seattle comes in 10 games under .500 overall but a more respectable three games under .500 on the road and the Mariners have been able to avoid the big losing streaks as they have won 57 percent of their games following a loss including winning 10 of their last 14 in that situation. The Astros send Scott Feldman to the hill and he has put together four straight quality starts which is the longest run this season. Still, he is just 2-4 with a 5.16 ERA in nine home starts and the Astros are 5-11 in Feldman's last 16 starts following a quality outing in his last start while the Mariners are 10-1 in their last 11 games against right-handed starters. Roenis Elias counters for Seattle and he is coming off a quality outing in his first game back since being called back up and expect the success to continue. Here we play against home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that is starting a pitcher who gave up one or less earned runs last outing going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or more over his last five starts. This situation is 74-63 (54 percent) over the last five seasons and while that percentage may be small, remember we are dealing with underdogs and this situation has netted +53 units. 10* (969) Seattle Mariners |
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09-01-15 | Connecticut Sun v. Indiana Fever -8.5 | Top | 51-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
With the end of the regular season less than two weeks away, the remaining schedule can be vital for a lot of teams and that is the case for both Connecticut and Indiana. The Sun pulled off a big road upset on Sunday as they defeated Chicago by four points as a nine-point road underdog, snapping a seven-game losing streak. Connecticut is still mathematically alive for a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference but because it trails Washington by four games for the final playoff spot, a Washington victory in any of its final six games will eliminate the Sun. Indiana meanwhile is in the playoffs but it is seeking home court advantage in the first round but trails second place Chicago by a half-game so the rest of the slate for the Fever is very important. After winning six straight games, the Fever have dropped three in a row for the first time since opening 0-3. they have also lost four straight games against the number after covering five straight games so this is a big bounce angle play as well. Indiana is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 75 or more points in four straight games and it falls into a great situation where we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 70 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after a win by six points or less. This situation is 72-36 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (602) Indiana Fever |
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08-31-15 | Washington Nationals +130 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The Nationals are coming back to life as they have won six of their last eight games and we will take the contrarian approach here with the underdog that is fighting for their playoff lives. Typically, most teams that are not leading their divisions have a great postseason shot via the Wild Card but that is not the case for Washington as it trails New York by 5.5 games in the National League East and that is the only way it is going to get in. The Cardinals are back home following a solid roadtrip where they won seven of their last eight games and because of the Pirates loss Sunday, increased their lead to 4.5 games in the National League Central. They have been awesome at home all season, thus the high price tag here with John Lackey who has been a sensational part of the rotation that came out of nowhere. The wins have not been coming of late however as the Cardinals have dropped four of his last five games as a favorite and over his last six starts, St. Louis has averaged just 3.0 rpg. The Nationals hope that Gio Gonzalez turns things around as he has struggled over his last three starts but he is definitely better than what he has recently shown. The Nationals are 21-10 in his last 31 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game and they have dominated the better teams, going 8-0 in his eight starts this season against teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 rpg or more. 10* (957) Washington Nationals |
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08-31-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +188 v. New York Mets | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The Phillies hit the road following a series win over San Diego over the weekend and while the road hasn't been kind all season, the price here is too good to pass up and with the future pitching matchups in this series, this is the best shot for a Philadelphia victory. They have struggled against the Mets this season for sure including losses in nine straight games which is playing into this number. New York was able to salvage a game against Boston in its weekend series to retain its 5.5-game lead in the National League East. The Mets have been better at home than on the road but have dropped five of their last six at Citi Field and they send Bartolo Colon to the hill who is coming off a quality game last time out against the Phillies. The problem is, he has not been able to string together quality efforts since early July as he has followed up his last four quality starts with absolute disasters and posting a 12.71 ERA in those games. The Mets are 3-9 in Colon's last 12 starts including 0-4 in his last four at home. Philadelphia turns to Jerad Eickhoff who is making his third start after putting up as pair of quality outings in his first two starts. He posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 21 games this season at AAA so the success is no fluke thus far. 10* (953) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-30-15 | Phoenix Mercury v. Minnesota Lynx OVER 145 | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a big game in the Western Conference between Minnesota and Phoenix as the Lynx hold on to a two-game lead over the Mercury with just four games remaining after this so the conference could pretty much be decided after tonight with a home win. We are concentrating on the total tonight however as everything is lining up for a high scoring game which has been a rarity of late for both teams as well as in the season series. Phoenix has gone under the total in three straight games but the last two over/unders have closed at 163.5 while the other one stayed below the number by just a half point. Minnesota meanwhile has gone under the total in four straight games with three of those coming very close to the final total. As far as the season series, the first four games have all stayed under the number with all four of those closing number being lower than the last and tonight marks the lowest of them all. This is where the value comes into play. This is just the second time all season that Minnesota has had a total of less than 145.5 and that first game went over. Meanwhile, Phoenix has had three prior totals of 145 or less and all three of those went over as well. So for Sunday we are catching a great number and great situations for a big offensive game. 10* Over (653) Phoenix Mercury/(654) Minnesota Lynx |
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08-30-15 | Houston Texans v. New Orleans Saints -3 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -125 | 99 h 25 m | Show |
The natives could be getting restless in New Orleans. After losing five straight home games to end the regular season last year, the Saints blew a 21-0 lead against New England last week and ended up losing by two points on a Patriots field goal with 14 seconds remaining. Head coach Sean Payton said he was happy with the effort as the Saints came out strong as opposed to the first game against Baltimore where they came out very flat. Still, with this being the last home game of the preseason, they want to win and snap this streak before the regular season begins. Additionally, the third game is most important and Payton does take it serious as his teams are 7-1 straight up and against the number in the dress rehearsal week. After defeating San Francisco in Week One, Houston lost at home against Denver last week and hits the road for the first time here. That is a big edge for New Orleans as is the fact head coach Bill O'Brien has already named Brian Hoyer as the starting quarteback over Ryan Mallett. That is big since we won't see either one going all out and we can expect to see some more action from Tom Savage. This is a big game for the city itself as it takes place one day after the 10 years anniversary of Hurricane Katina and if ever there is a time to win for the city, this is it. New Orleans is now 11-2 ATS in its last 13 preseason games against teams coming off a loss and we can expect that run to continue here. 10* (280) New Orleans Saints |
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08-30-15 | Colorado Rockies +205 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 5-0 | Win | 205 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
The Pirates won their fourth straight games last night as they defeated the Rockies by a run and going back, they have won seven of eight and trail the Cardinals by 3.5 games in the National League Central. Additionally, they have a 10.5-game lead in the Wild Card over third place San Francisco so the postseason is a given. Colorado is out to play spoiler and despite a 2-3 roadtrip thus far, the Rockies have outscored the opponents 20-18 showing they have not been able to get the close ones. They have won six of their last eight series enders and look to add to that behind Jorge De La Rosa. He is coming off a lousy start against the Braves where he allowed five runs but the last time he allowed that many runs, he followed it up with four straight quality starts. He has been better on the road than at home this season as he has a 3.51 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 starts, seven of which have been quality outings. He is working on an extra day of rest and that is big as the Rockies are 23-9 in his last 32 starts with five days of rest. Charlie Morton is also coming off a poor outing and he has been all over the place of late despite solid numbers at home. He has a 4.25 ERA in eight starts since the All Star break with just three being quality and going back, the Pirates are 8-25 in his last 33 series ending starts. 10* (903) Colorado Rockies |
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08-30-15 | New York Yankees v. Atlanta Braves +156 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
We lost with the Braves last night as the offense was unable to get to Luis Severino and the Yankees bullpen and a solid outing from Matt Wisler was wasted. Atlanta has now dropped four straight games but it is still five games over .500 at home on the season and despite the loss last night, the Braves are 12-5 in their last 17 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. New York has won two straight games following a 2-5 run and remain a game and a half behind Toronto in the American League East. Putting up consecutive positive pitching efforts has been an issue however as the Yankees are 1-6 in their last seven games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. The last time the Braves won a game, Julio Teheran was on the mound and it was at home which is a key factor. Even though he has been pitching outstanding of late with a 2.73 ERA over his last five starts, his home numbers speak for themselves as he is 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.98 WHIP across 13 starts with Atlanta winning 10 of those. New York counters with Nathan Eovaldi as he is having a solid season with a 13-2 record. But he has a 4.00 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and just 10 of his 25 starts have been quality outings. He is getting 5.52 rpg of support and that says it all right there and we don't expect to see that today. 10* (928) Atlanta Braves |
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08-29-15 | Indianapolis Colts +1.5 v. St Louis Rams | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 102 h 45 m | Show |
The Colts are off to a 0-2 start to the preseason which may not mean much for some teams but this is getting old for Indianapolis. It has now lost seven straight preseason games and while the records do not carry over into the regular season, what has happened this year is troubling. Both losses have been blowouts while the Colts have been outgained by a combined 189 total yards. With next week being the final game of the preseason, starters will not play so this is the final shot to turn things around heading into the regular season and the opening road game against the Bills. The talent of this team will show through here. Not only are the Colts' most talented positions involved heavily in the passing game (quarterback, wide receiver and tight end), but the team also has incredible depth at those pass-catching positions, especially versatile depth which is important in the preseason. St. Louis is also off to a 0-2 start but it has been playing better, getting outgained by just eight combined yards. Even though the Rams are 0-2 and are playing their first home game, it is a situation that heavily favors the Colts. First, we play on underdogs or pickems coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, winless in the preseason. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) since 1993. Additionally, we play on any road team that is 0-2 where the line is between +/-2 where the team lost at home by scoring 17 or fewer points. This situation is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1983. 10* (273) Indianapolis Colts |
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08-29-15 | Houston Astros v. Minnesota Twins +133 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Minnesota took the opener of this series last night with a 3-0 victory to remain a half-game out in the American League Wild Card. The Twins have won seven of their last eight games with pitching being the highlight, allowing three runs or less in six of those games. They have been an underdog in every one of those games and are once again tonight despite being at home where they are 15 games over .500 on the season. Houston's lead in the American League West dropped to four games with the loss and it dropped to 11 games under .500 on the road. The Astros are 6-21 in their last 27 games as a road favorite and send Mike Fiers to the hill following his no-hitter in his last start. These are the best times to fade such a situation as it doesn't mean he is necessarily due for a bad game but because the line is now overinflated due to the public driving it up. He has been solid since coming over from Milwaukee but has struggled more so on the road the entire season including having a rough start in Minnesota in his first start here back in June. Mike Pelfrey has been up and down of late but his ups have taken place at home still where he has a 1.97 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 11 starts, seven of which have been quality. The Astros are 5-14 in their last 19 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (968) Minnesota Twins |
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08-29-15 | New York Yankees v. Atlanta Braves +181 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The Yankees blasted Atlanta last night as they scored nine runs in the first two innings and went on to a 14-5 win to keep pace with Toronto in the American League East. They have won four of their last five games on the road to move to two games over .500 but they are certainly overpriced tonight with two of the top pitching prospects squaring off. The Braves lost for the 10th time in 11 games but that includes seven losses taking place on the road and despite three straight home defeats, they are still six games over .500 at home and have won five of their last seven games as home underdogs. The Yankees send Luis Severino to the hill and he has been solid with three of his four starts being quality outings but he has not been able to go deep into games. He has allowed five runs in 12 innings on the road to go along with a 1.33 WHIP and the Yankees have dropped both of those games. The Braves are 13-6 in their last 19 home games against right-handed starters. Atlanta turns to Matt Wisler and looking at his overall numbers and his recent numbers shows us he has been struggling. However, five of his last six and seven of his last nine starts have come on the road where his ERA is close to three runs higher than it is at home. The Braves have won all four of his home starts and all four have been as underdogs. 10* (978) Atlanta Braves |
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08-29-15 | Cleveland Browns +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 80 h 9 m | Show |
We won with Tampa Bay on Monday as it defeated Cincinnati rather handily and snapped an 11-game losing streak at home so that goal has now been attained. We are now going against the Buccaneers this week as the situation this time around is much tougher. First off, Tampa Bay is playing on a short week following the Monday night game while Cleveland is will have four extra days of preparation time and rest which is a massive advantage. The Browns blew a late lead against Buffalo last Thursday to fall to 0-2 in the preseason and going back to last season, they have dropped seven consecutive games so even though we are still in the preseason, a win is needed for Cleveland. The Browns will be plenty motivated here mostly due to quarterback Josh McCown facing his former team where he played 11 games a season ago. Following Thursday's game, Browns coach Mike Pettine reiterated that McCown, who threw interceptions on Cleveland's first two drives, was firmly the No. 1 so there won't be any pressure here although he does need to play better. Cleveland falls into a couple great situations. First, we play on road teams after allowing 14 points or less last game going up against an opponent after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1993. Second, we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1993. 10* (265) Cleveland Browns |
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08-29-15 | Chicago Sky v. Atlanta Dream +3 | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Chicago heads to Atlanta looking to lock up a playoff position and it can do so with a victory along with a Connecticut loss against New York. Getting a win here may seem pretty easy and covering the short price seems doable but this is not going to be easy at all. Atlanta has played the Sky tough all season as it has covered all three meetings as underdogs including winning the lone home meeting outright. The Dream have won three straight games including an upset win over Indiana last night as they used a 29-17 scoring advantage in the fourth quarter to beat the Fever 90-84 for their longest winning streak of the season and fourth win in five games. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season but is a respectable 7-6 at home and the situations have been favorable when comparing to tonight. Atlanta is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams with a winning record while going 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog. Meanwhile Chicago is just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a road win and have failed to cover in four of its last five games against teams with a losing record. 10* (604) Atlanta Dream |
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08-28-15 | Toronto Argonauts v. Edmonton Eskimos -5.5 | Top | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
You can call the CFL and "smoke and mirrors league" at times because sometimes results do not correlate with the actual play on the field. This matchup is a perfect example of that as the public buys into the scores and not inside the numbers. Toronto is tied for first place in the East Division with Hamilton at 6-2 thanks to a three-game winning streak, two of those coming at home in the Argonauts only two true home games thus far. All of the wins were by seven points or less and making the winning streak surprising is the fact that Toronto was outgained in all three of those games. Despite being four games over .500, the Argonauts are getting outgained by an average of 13.7 ypg which is a small amount but the fact they are in the negative is a big red flag. We played on Edmonton last week at home against Hamilton and the Eskimos were crushed 49-20. While the scoreboard shows they were dominated, that was hardly the case as they outgained the Tiger Cats by 104 total yards but lost the turnover battle 5-1 and teams will very rarely win with a turnover deficit like that. Edmonton has won the yardage battle in each of its last seven games and on the season, it is outgaining opponents by an average of 70.8 ypg which is the biggest margin in the league. The only game the Eskimos were outgained in was the season opener against Toronto in the season opener which resulted in a 15-point loss so revenge is in play this week as well. Toronto is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a home game while Edmonton is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite. 10* (286) Edmonton Eskimos |
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08-28-15 | LA Sparks v. Tulsa Shock UNDER 153 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
We played on the Los Angeles/Indiana under on Wednesday and a 46-point first quarter doomed us right from the start. We are coming back with the under again here though as the Sparks have gone over the total in each of their last three games to open this roadtrip and the value is again on the other side. Tulsa is coming off a high scoring game last time out but it took overtime for that one to eclipse the total. And the Shock are in a good spot for a lower scoring game because of it. The defense was a big issue during its 10-game losing skid but the stop unit has been solid during the last two contests as they have allowed opponents to shoot just 39 percent from the floor. They could catch another break tonight as the Sparks second-leading scorer Nneka Ogwumike has missed the past four games due to concussion-like symptoms and could be out again tonight. Los Angeles is 9-5 to the over when the total is less than 150 while going 8-5 to the under when it is 150 or more. Recent games is also helping as the Sparks are 19-5 to the under in their last 24 games after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games while Tulsa is 16-6 to the under in its last 22 home games after scoring 80 points or more. 10* Under (657) Los Angeles Sparks/(658) Tulsa Shock |
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08-28-15 | New England Patriots v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -120 | 57 h 41 m | Show |
Carolina has opened the preseason with a pair of one-point victories over Buffalo in Week One and Miami in Week Two. While that may seem to make this a good spot to go against the Panthers, it is the opposite effect based on who they are playing. With the defending Super Bowl champions coming to town, this is a big game for the players and fans, preseason or not. In addition, Carolina went to New England last preseason in this same dress rehearsal week and were pounded by the Patriots 30-7. But in fact, it really was a different scenario as head coach Ron Rivera gave his starters their most extensive playing time of the preseason against the Chiefs in the prior week in which the Panthers ended up winning. So now Carolina will be using their starters more this week and playing with revenge where they are 4-1 ATS at home under Rivera. The Patriots shook off a loss against the Packers opening week with a victory against the Saints last week as they overcame a 21-0 deficit to pull out the 26-24 win. That is good enough for them as the team played well and now it is time to just remain healthy. On the other side, Carolina's first team offense has scored just seven points in seven possessions so it will be out to improve upon that. Quarterback Cam Newton and the first string offense will play at least the first half and possibly go into the second half after making halftime adjustments. 10* (252) Carolina Panthers |
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08-28-15 | Los Angeles Angels +155 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
After nearly getting no-hit by Justin Verlander on Wednesday, the Angels pitched a shutout of their own as Matt Shoemaker allowed just one hit over 7.1 innings in a 2-0 victory. Los Angeles is 5.5 games behind Houston in the American League West but is just a half-game behind Texas for the second Wild Card spot making every game big at this point. Cleveland swept its two-game series against Milwaukee prior to an off day on Thursday but the Indians are still a putrid 26-34 at home so laying any sort of big chalk is not a good idea. At this range, the Indians are 16-19 against the moneyline as home favorites of -125 to -175 this season. Danny Salazar is having a solid season but he is coming off a poor effort against the Yankees as he allowed five runs, four earned, on eight hits in just 4.2 innings. The Indians are 2-5 in Salazar's last seven starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The fact that Andrew Heaney got shelled in his last start is a real shock as he was outstanding prior to that. He had allowed more than two runs only once in his previous 10 starts which included seven quality outings. But the last game came against Toronto so we give him a pass and expect a big effort tonight. 10* (915) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-28-15 | Colorado Rockies +225 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Colorado took the final two games in Atlanta prior to yesterday's travel day as it heads to Pittsburgh looking to play spoiler. The Rockies are in last place in the National League West but a price like this is hard to pass up especially given the circumstances of a bounceback pitching effort on their side. The Pirates have also won two straight games and they are now four games up on the Cubs for the first Wild Card spot which is big as that comes with a home game. After three decent starts to open his Major League career, Jon Gray got hammered in his last start against the red hot Mets as he allowed seven runs in just 1.2 innings. 10 of the 15 batters he faced reached base but because of that outing, this number is now ridiculously high in what is a great rebound potential. Francisco Liriano counter for Pittsburgh and he has been pretty uneven of late as he has a 4.67 ERA over his last five starts but even more disturbing is his 2.22 WHIP over those games which is a true indication of how bad it has been. The fact he has not lost is possibly more surprising but look for the Colorado bats to get to him again. 10* (903) Colorado Rockies |
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08-27-15 | San Diego Padres +157 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
Just as you thought the Nationals might start to put something big together, the bats fell silent at the wrong times last night and they had their three-game winning streak snapped and fell 6.5 games behind the Mets in the National League East. The pressure is fully on right now as winning the division is likely the only chance for the preseason National League Pennant favorites to make the postseason as they are 10 games back in the Wild Card chase. San Diego has been done a while ago as they are 7.5 games back in the National League West and it is just a game and a half worse than Washington overall so we are catching a solid number tonight. Joe Ross takes the mound for the Nationals and he has been very solid in his rookie season but Washington simply is not winning for him. The Nationals are plating just 3.2 rpg in his starts so he has had a lot of wasted efforts. The Nationals are 0-5 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Andrew Cashner gets the ball for the Padres and while his season overall has been a disappointment, he has been throwing better, posting a 3.51 ERA over his last nine starts. He allowed no earned runs in six innings against the Cardinals last time out and he now has 10 quality outings in 15 nighttime starts. The Padres are 5-0 in his last five starts with five days of rest. 10* (957) San Diego Padres |
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08-27-15 | Phoenix Mercury v. Connecticut Sun +6 | Top | 81-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
It is now or never for Connecticut as what once was a likely playoff berth has turned into a scramble to the finish following its fifth straight loss on Tuesday. Four of the five losses have come by double-digits with three of those coming against last place Atlanta so it has been an even worse run than the record shows. Hence, we are getting value on the home team because of the recent skid. Phoenix snapped a three-game losing streak with a home win over Minnesota on Sunday which certainly puts the Mercury in letdown mode here. They are just 5-7 on the road and on the season overall, they are 3-13 ATS against teams allowing 73 or more ppg while going 0-7 ATS following a double-digit victory. We also have two great league-wide situations on our side. First, we play on home teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 that are coming off a road loss by 10 points or more, playing a winning team. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) since 1997. Also, we play against favorites that are coming off conference win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a conference road loss. This situation is 46-22 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (602) Connecticut Sun |
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08-27-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Texas Rangers +140 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 140 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
We took a shot with Texas last night and went against David Price who did not let his past nightmares against the Ranger affect him as he put together a fifth straight quality start since joining Toronto. The Rangers fell a game behind Minnesota for the second Wild Card spot in the American League and they need a win here before another big series on deck against the Orioles. Toronto has won five straight and has a two-game lead over the Yankees in the American League East. The offense continues to mash the ball as the Blue Jays have scored 54 runs during this winning streak and their +173 run differential is by far the best in baseball. Yovani Gallardo has already tamed the offense once this season and he is pitching good enough to do it again. He is coming off six shutout innings against the Tigers and following three straight starts where he allowed five runs in each, he has posted a 1.59 ERA over his last three outings. Going back, the Rangers are 8-1 in Gallardo's last nine starts against teams with a winning record. Marco Estrada has been a pleasant surprise for the Toronto rotation but after a near no-hit bid back in June, he has slowed down as has his run support. He did get 15 runs last time out but prior to that, was got an average of just 2.4 rpg in his previous seven starts. Texas is 6-1 in its last seven home games against right-handed starters. 10* (966) Texas Rangers |
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08-26-15 | Baltimore Orioles +151 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 8-5 | Win | 151 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The Orioles playoff hopes have taken a big hit with their recent losing streak which has reached six straight following their defeat last night. Still, Baltimore is just 2.5 games out in the American League Wild Card race but they do have to overtake four teams to get in. Still, it is definitely doable and Baltimore is one of just three teas in all of baseball that possesses a losing record yet has a positive run differential. Kansas City remains 13 games up in the American League Central so the Royals can coast into the playoffs as it also has a seven-game lead for best record in the league. They have won four straight heading into tonight but they are just 1-5 in their last six games as a favorite of -151 to -200. The squares will be all over Johnny Cueto tonight after he allowed seven runs, six earned, on 13 hits in six innings against the Red Sox as they expect a bounceback. While it is possible, he is facing a potent offense and one that cannot be disregarded despite the recent non-production during the skid. Wei-Yin Chen has been pitching great as well as his numbers are right in line with Cueto. He has a 3.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 24 starts and he has allowed three runs or less in all but two of those 24 starts. Going back, the Orioles are 9-2 in Chen's last 11 starts following a team loss in their previous game. 10* (927) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-26-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Texas Rangers +169 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Toronto continues to play at a high level as it is 20-4 over its last 24 games so going against the Blue Jays here, especially with their new ace on the hill, does not seen prudent but this is actually a great spot to do so. They have won four straight games on the road but despite that, they are two games under .500 on the highway. Texas had its three-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night but the Rangers remain right in the hunt in the American League Wild Card race as they are currently locked in the second slot and don't count them out in the West as they are just 4.5 games behind Houston. The Rangers are 6-0 in their last six games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. David Price has been awesome since coming over from Detroit as he has tossed four quality outings in his four starts, putting up a 1.78 ERA. However, tonight marks his toughest spot so far as he is heading to a hitters park and one that he has not done well at. He has a 7.36 ERA in five starts at Rangers Ballpark and overall against Texas, he has a 5.37 ERA. Colby Lewis has been a big reason for the Rangers success as he is 14-5 with a 4.09 ERA and that number comes down to 3.36 after taking out his two worst starts. The Rangers are 13-3 in his last 16 starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (924) Texas Rangers |
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08-26-15 | LA Sparks v. Indiana Fever UNDER 152.5 | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
We took advantage of an overinflated total yesterday which didn't even come into play and we will do so again here. Los Angeles heads to Indiana riding a two-game winning streak, both coming on the road and both games going over the total. They barely went over however as they eclipsed the number by a combined two and a half points but because they surpassed the over/under, we are seeing a number higher tonight than either of those two previous games. Indiana meanwhile has won six straight and nine of its last 10 games to keep pace with New York in the Eastern Conference as it trails the Liberty by just one game. The Fever are coming off an over in their most recent win which came after a string of four straight unders. These teams met in Los Angeles just over a week ago and that game stayed under the total. Los Angeles and Indiana are a combined 14-5 to the over when the total is less than 150 and 19-14 to the under when the total is 150 or higher. We have two solid situations on our side as well. First, we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 that are revenging a same season loss and coming off two consecutive conference wins. This situation is 24-6 (80%) to the under over the last five seasons. Additionally, we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 coming off a conference win going up against an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more. This situation is 52-23 (69.3%) to the under since 1997. 10* Under (651) Los Angeles Sparks/(652) Indiana Fever |
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08-26-15 | Oakland A's +153 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Seattle took Game Two of this series last night to tie it up at a game apiece with the deciding game going this afternoon. We won with Oakland in Game One and are playing the A's for a lot of the same reasons. There is not much difference between the A's and Mariners with overall records and home/road splits but there is one big advantage Oakland possesses. The A's are +16 in run differential while the Mariners are -97 in scoring differential and that is a huge gap for teams that are just 3.5 games apart from each other. Felix Hernandez is not even close to where he was earlier in the season as he has tossed just one quality outing over his last five starts, posting an 8.48 ERA in the process. While he has pitched well against Oakland the past two years, looking at the logs will show that he has been fortunate as he has allowed a ton of baserunners. Chris Bassitt counters for Oakland and he has been awesome since entering the rotation. He has allowed three runs or less in all nine starts, posting a 2.48 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in those games. He is on a seven-game quality start streak and he also possesses a powerful 53:19 K:BB ratio. The Mariners are 0-4 in their last four games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 10* (917) Oakland A's |
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08-25-15 | Minnesota Twins +146 v. Tampa Bay Rays | Top | 11-7 | Win | 146 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
After getting swept in New York against the Yankees, Minnesota responded with a four-game sweep in Baltimore over the Orioles to move to within a game and a half of the Rangers for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. Tampa Bay is coming off a tough roadtrip where it went 4-6 to drop back down to .500 overall but it too remains in the Wild Card hunt, sitting two and a half game back. The Rays are 2-9 in their last 11 home games following a road trip of seven or more days and look to reverse that trend behind Nathan Karns tonight. His numbers are pretty solid but he is still very inconsistent with just nine of his 24 starts being quality outings. He has struggles more at home than on the road where he has a 4.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in eight starts while Tampa Bay is just 1-4 in his last five starts against winning teams. The Twins counter with Ervin Santana who has not been the solid pitcher they had hoped for since entering the rotation in July. He has struggled mightily at home but he has been much better on the road with four of six starts being quality performances. Minnesota has dropped his last five games so we are getting value because of it and take advantage tonight. 10* (969) Minnesota Twins |
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08-25-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies +192 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The Phillies were able to get to Jacob deGrom last night as we expected but were unable to hold onto a 7-2 lead as the Mets used eight home runs in their comeback win, a franchise record. They have exploded for 49 runs during their four-game winning streak but that isn't going to last forever. Philadelphia had its three-game winning streak snapped last night but again catches a good matchup at a great price. The Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game and send Jerome Williams to the hill tonight. His overall numbers are not good but his issues are mostly from the road as he has a 7.53 ERA on the highway with Philadelphia going just 2-10 in those starts. The Phillies are a much better 5-3 in his eight home starts where his ERA drops close to 3.5 runs. Going back, the Phillies are 6-2 in Williams' last eight starts as a home underdog. Noah Syndergaard has better overall numbers but he also struggles on the road where his ERA is close to four runs higher than it is at home. New York is 8-1 in his nine home starts but just 1-8 in his nine road starts with tonight now being the biggest moneyline he has laid on the road by far. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-25-15 | Connecticut Sun v. Atlanta Dream UNDER 159.5 | Top | 57-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
*Note 11:30 AM ET Start* This is the third meeting in four games for Atlanta and Connecticut so they certainly know each other pretty well at this point and that favors the defense even though there was none in the last two matchups. Both meetings since last Sunday flew over the total including the last game this past Sunday that went over the number by a whopping 37.5 points and because of that, we are catching a total that is 3.5 points higher than that close. The Sun have gone over in seven straight games and during their four-game losing streak, they have allowed 91.5 ppg compared to giving up 77 ppg on the entire season. While the defense is surely to blame, Atlanta has been unconscious from the floor, shooting 53.2 percent in the two wins over Connecticut including going 16-25 (64 percent) from long range. The Dream have gone over the total in five of their last six games and nine of their last 11 but now we are catching an over/under rarely seen as it is close or at 160 which is just the second time all season that either team has seen it this high. Atlanta went over in the first one but that was against the WNBA's top offense in Chicago. Overall, neither team shoots particularly well and they are also two of the bottom four free throw shooting teams in the league. 10* Under (601) Connecticut Sun/(602) Atlanta Dream |
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08-24-15 | Oakland A's +161 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 11-5 | Win | 161 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
With the playoffs no longer a possibility for both Oakland and Seattle, we can definitely find value going against big favorites which is the case here. There is not much difference between the A's and Mariners with overall records and home/road splits but there is one big advantage Oakland possesses. The A's are +11 in run differential while the Mariners are -92 in scoring differential and that is a huge gap for teams that are just 3.5 games apart from each other. The A's are 7-1 in their last eight road games against teams with a losing home record while the Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight home games against teams with a losing record. Hisashi Iwakuma is coming off a no-hitter in his last home start but he has surprisingly struggled against the poor teams at home as he has been favored by -164 or higher at home three times and the Mariners are 0-3 in those games with his ERA being a lofty 8.44. Oakland counters with Felix Doubront who is making his second start since coming over from Toronto and his first start was solid as he allowed no earned runs on just one hit in six innings. In 39.1 combined innings, he has allowed just two home runs which is big against a Seattle team that is ranked sixth in baseball in that category. 10* (915) Oakland A's |
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08-24-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 | Top | 11-25 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The Buccaneers dropped their preseason opener at Minnesota 26-16 but it was definitely a tough spot. They started a rookie quarterback in his first ever start and at the same time, they faced a Vikings team that had already played the previous week in the Hall of Fame game. Jameis Winston completed nine of his 19 pass attempts for 131 yards and an interception and while he struggled early, he settled into a rhythm and made a few impressive plays, including capping off a successful two-minute drill with an eight-yard touchdown run. Coach Lovie Smith plans to play his starters at least a quarter, although Winston may wind up going a little longer after playing a full half last week. Cincinnati won at home against the Giants, outgaining New York by 208 total yards but heading on the road now puts them in a tough position in a game that is big for the home team. We often talk about teams trying to bring in a winning attitude during the preseason and Tampa Bay is one of those teams that wants and needs to win at home. The Buccaneers have dropped 11 straight games at home including preseason while Smith is 0-10 at home since coming here. That is all the motivation we need right there. 10* (432) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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08-24-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies +192 | Top | 16-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The Mets completed a weekend sweep of Colorado over the weekend and head back east to try and add to their five-game lead in the National League East. Even with the sweep, New York is still just 10 games under .500 on the road and tonight will be a tougher matchup than most probably anticipate. The Phillies took three of four in Miami to snap a four-game road losing streak and head home where they are a very respectable two games under .500 at home. Going back, the Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Adam Morgan has been a solid addition to the Phillies rotation as he has a 3.92 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 10 starts with six of those being quality outings. He has been a home underdog five times and Philadelphia has won four of those. Going against Jacob deGrom has not paid off of late for those who have as the Mets have won his last seven starts and he has been sensational in all of those. We are going contrarian here however as he is extremely overpriced as this is the most he has been favored by on the road all season, the previous high being -144. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 10* (902) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-23-15 | Green Bay Packers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 55 m | Show |
The Steelers are off to a 0-2 start in the preseason after losing to Minnesota in the Hall of Fame game and then on the road in Jacksonville last week. This marks the first home game for Pittsburgh and being winless, we can expect an all out effort for players and coaches to get into the win column. The Packers took care of New England last week and while quarterback Aaron Rodgers played a full quarter, don't expect much more this week as starting left tackle David Bakhtiari is all but officially scratched from the game, and, historically, once the blindside protector leaves the field, so does Green Bay's starting quarterback. We will see more from Ben Roethlisberger who has thrown just three passes but the best news is after that, veteran Brad Gradkowski will see time he took the most snaps of any signal caller on Thursday and the most he's had all camp, after spending much of it on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are a perfect 3-0 in their first home game of the preseason if they are coming off a road loss prior to that. That remains perfect after this week. 10* (426) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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08-22-15 | CALGARY v. SASKATCHEWAN +6 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 81 h 2 m | Show |
We won with Calgary last week as the Stampeders picked up their first cover of the season after opening up 0-6 against the number. It was clearly the Stampeders best performance of the season as they were able to extract their revenge on Ottawa from an earlier loss this season. It should be noted that head coach John Hufnagel is now 9-0 coming off bye weeks so the situation was in their favor for sure. Now they hit the road where they are 0-2 to going 5-0 at home and this will not be easy despite facing the lone winless team in the CFL. Saskatchewan fell to 0-7 on the season with a loss at Toronto but it also its first cover of the season. While winning is most important and stats could be considered meaningless because of that, the Roughriders have performed better than that record shows. Call it bad luck or bad timing or bad mistakes at the wrong times, it is impossible to ignore the fact that the Roughriders have outgained four of seven opponents and are actually outgaining opponents by close to 40 ypg and that tells a lot. On the flip side, Calgary is outgaining opponents by just 18.1 ypg. Saskatchewan is coming off its bye week which certainly came at a good time as it was much needed to regroup. Despite a 0-4 record at home, this game is sold out, making it the first home sellout of the season showing the importance of this rivalry. 10* (296) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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08-22-15 | Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers +111 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
The Rangers were able to bounce back from their shutout loss on Thursday to produce their own shutout last night. That put them within a half-game of the Angels for the second Wild Card spot in the American League but now they are favored tonight which is not ideal. Detroit had its three-game winning streak snapped last night as it fell back to three games under .500 and 3.5 games out in the Wild Card. Randy Wolf is back in the bigs and making his first Major League start of the season after coming over from Toronto. He posted a 2.53 ERA and 106/40 K/BB ratio in 139.2 innings over 23 starts this season at the Triple-A level so he has been pretty solid. Granted the minors are a different ballgame but his veteran leadership is a bonus. Yovani Gallardo has not been very effective of late as hr has now gone eight straight starts without a quality outing while posting a 5.44 ERA over that stretch. The Rangers are 0-5 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (918) Detroit Tigers |
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08-22-15 | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 17-40 | Loss | -115 | 58 h 19 m | Show |
This is a great scheduling spot for the Ravens and we are getting a great number on top of that. The Eagles are coming off a big win over Indianapolis on Sunday night as they defeated the Colts 36-10 but now they are working on a very short week of preparation which makes the quick turnaround a big disadvantage. Baltimore meanwhile is coming off a win over New Orleans last Thursday and the extra time off here definitely benefits them in this case. The Ravens came into town early for three joint practices starting Wednesday and that gives them a shot at working against the fast paced Eagles offense prior to the game Saturday. The starters will be challenged, and the depth of this team will be tested as well. That is exactly what you want in these preseason games. The Ravens starters figure to play the entire first quarter on Saturday and were sharp in their first action against the Saints. Many outlets have the Ravens as a 3.5-point underdog which is always a big number advantage but as head coach John Harbaugh has proven in the past, the points may not be needed as Baltimore has gone 9-4 ATS in 13 games as an underdog while winning 10 of those games outright. 10* (411) Baltimore Ravens |
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08-21-15 | LA Sparks v. Phoenix Mercury OVER 146.5 | Top | 78-68 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
After winning four straight games, the Sparks have dropped three of their last four games but more importantly for our purposes, they have gone under the total in five of their last six contests which sets up a great value opportunity here. On the other side, Phoenix has gone under the number is its last five games and because of that, we are getting some value also. That is evidenced by the fact that this is the lowest total Los Angeles has seen in since July 15th, a span of 13 games and the lowest total Phoenix has seen since July 10th, a span of 14 games. These two converging runs puts us in a great spot to cash a high scoring ticket. Additionally, when the total is 150 or higher, these teams have gone a combined 19-8 to the under but the results have not been nearly as skewed with the lower numbers are they are 11-11 when the total is less than 150. The last meeting stayed under the total back on July 21st but we are seeing this over/under come in four points lower as the recent results are pushing it down and we take advantage. 10* Over (611) Los Angeles Sparks/(612) Phoenix Mercury |
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08-21-15 | HAMILTON v. EDMONTON +2 | Top | 49-20 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 26 m | Show |
Hamilton and Edmonton come in with very similar résumés as both are 5-2 on the season, both have been solid against the number and both are undefeated at home which makes this line a bit of a head scratcher. The Tiger Cats have had a very odd schedule to start the season as they opened with four straight road games along with a bye week tucked in there followed by three straight home games, all of which they dominated. Edmonton meanwhile is coming off a pair of road games and it has been equally dominant at home, winning its three home games by an average of close to 28 ppg so playing the role of underdog here is a strong one. Defensively, the Eskimos are the best in the CFL overall as they are allowing only 12.5 ppg and it gets even better here. They are allowing just 8.3 ppg at home this season and the domination goes back even further as they have only given up an average of 7.9 ppg in each of their last eight home games. While stopping the Tiger Cats offense may seem like a daunting task, it shouldn't be. Hamilton has averaged 25.1 ppg on the season which is the best in the CFL but it is skewed somewhat as it has scored seven touchdowns via its defense. Both teams come in with excellent against the spread numbers in their respective splits but look for the Eskimos to run their ATS run at home to nine games when this one is done. 10* (294) Edmonton Eskimos |
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08-21-15 | Washington Mystics v. Chicago Sky -4.5 | Top | 85-87 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Chicago had a hold on first place in the Eastern Conference but an overtime loss in Phoenix toward the end of July seemed to have done some damage as the Sky are just 4-5 including that defeat since then. They now trail Washington and Indiana by a game for second place and first place New York by three games and this is arguably a much bigger game for Chicago as Connecticut is just two games behind them for the final playoff spot. Chicago lost at Los Angeles last Sunday but it is 5-1 in its last six games following a loss. Washington has won two straight games, both coming against the best team in the league Minnesota, and it has gone 9-3 over its last 12 games to move into a second place tie with Indiana. The Mystics are 7-1 against teams from the Western Conference but just 8-8 against teams from the Eastern Conference and while there is a big disparity in the strength of the two, it comes into play here. The Mystics are just 3-5 over their last eight road games and two of those road defeats have taken pace right here. Chicago is 10-3 at home and keeps it rolling here. 10* (608) Chicago Sky |
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08-21-15 | Seattle Seahawks +2 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 59 h 23 m | Show |
Seattle is coming off a rare loss last week and we say rare because head coach Pete Carroll tries to win every time out even when the games are considering meaningless. Even though the loss was by just two points, the Seahawks were outgained by 135 yards at home, certainly not the way they wanted to open the season after last year's Super Bowl disaster. Carroll takes opponent pretty serious as well as he is an incredible 13-1 ATS in his last 14 games against an opponent coming off a win and that is far from a coincidence. After a loss last season against Denver in the preseason opener, Seattle ripped San Diego in Week Two. Kansas City defeated Arizona last week 34-19 which was a surprising win as the Chiefs are typically a go against teams in the preseason whether it be with former coaches Todd Haley and Romeo Crennel or current head coach Andy Reid. He didn't care much about the preseason while with the Eagles and that is the case here as well. Going back, the Chiefs are a putrid 0-12 ATS in their second preseason game and while this is the first home game, Seattle will put more importance on it to win. 10* (407) Seattle Seahawks |
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08-21-15 | Atlanta Braves +180 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
After getting swept in their two-game set against Detroit where they allowed 25 runs, the Cubs used a solid effort from Jake Arrieta to take out Atlanta in the series opener last night. The Braves have lost four straight games and going back, they have dropped six straight on the road but the line is taking that into account as we are getting an exceptional number with their top starter on the hill. Shelby Miller has been the model of consistency as he is coming off another quality outing but was forced with a no decision. Due to the league's worst run support, Miller has a shoddy 5-9 record but sports a terrific 2.43 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and a 128/52 K/BB ratio over 152 innings. He has not won since May 19th which is unreal considering the numbers but now he is getting a massive underdog price that is too good to pass up. The Cubs counter with Kyle Hendricks who is having a solid season as well but his numbers aren't nearly as good. Only seven of 23 starts have been quality outings and the percentage is even worse during the day where he possesses a 4.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 11 starts. He possesses a 6.07 ERA over his last five starts and the solid run support he has been getting ends today. 10* (951) Atlanta Braves |
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08-20-15 | Minnesota Twins +148 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 15-2 | Win | 148 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
The Twins playoff hopes took a shot in New York after they were swept by the Yankees and they are now four games back in the Wild Card chase. But now comes a great opportunity to get back into it as they take on a team they are trailing and can gain ground once again. The Orioles meanwhile defeated the Mets last night, snapping a nine-game losing streak against them and are now just a half-game back of the Angels for the second Wild Card spot. With the inconsistent Miguel Gonzalez on the mound, there is a lot of value on the underdog here. He has been all over the place this season as just eight of his 22 start have been quality outings and while he is coming off one last time out, he has not tossed consecutive quality efforts since early June and has done so just once all season. Baltimore is just 3-7 in his last 10 starts following a win in his previous start. Tyler Duffey gets the ball for the Twins and while his first spot start was horrible, he is coming off a gem last time out, allowing no runs and just one hit over six innings. He put up a terrific 2.54 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 122/30 K/BB ratio in 138 innings this season between Double-A and Triple-A. 10* (915) Minnesota Twins |
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08-20-15 | Detroit Lions v. Washington Redskins -2.5 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 35 h 20 m | Show |
Detroit is coming off a dominating performance in its preseason opener against the Jets as it outgained New York by 305 total yards thanks to a defense that allowed just 123 total yards while the offense was efficient and balanced with 428 total yards. That makes the Lions a prime target to go against on Thursday especially in its first road game of the preseason. The Lions have failed to cover five of their last six road game. Washington is also coming off a solid performance in its preseason opener where it defeated Cleveland by just a field goal but outgained the Browns by 198 yards. The Redskins now head home looking for winning attitude as the last time they played at FedEx Field, they were trounced by the Cowboys 44-17 in last year's season finale. Washington went just 4-12 a season ago but the preseason success has been prevalent even going back to the Mike Shanahan days as the Redskins have won and covered six straight preseason home openers. While that may seem meaningless to some, a team like the Redskins that has struggled for a while now, it is important to win even the games that do not count going forward. 10* (402) Washington Redskins |
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08-20-15 | Cleveland Indians +150 v. New York Yankees | Top | 3-2 | Win | 150 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The Yankees are coming off a three-game sweep of the Twins and increased their lead in the American League East to two games over Toronto. While they were favorites in all of those games, they are favored tonight by an even bigger amount and we can take advantage of that value. The Indians are still a game over .500 on the road despite dropping each of their first two series on this current roadtrip. They send Josh Tomlin to the hill for his second start this season. He underwent an arthroscopic debridement of the AC joint in his right shoulder at the end of spring training, which shelved him for the first three months of the 2015 season. He posted a quality outing in his first start and while he posted a 4.76 ERA last year, he put up a 1.29 WHIP which is pretty solid and his career WHIP of 1.24 is even better showing he is arguably a lot better than what his ERA is telling. Ivan Nova counters for the Yankees and he is having a decent season coming off Tommy John surgery but he has been inconsistent. He is coming off his fourth quality start but has not put together consecutive quality performances this season and the Yankees are 2-5 in his last seven starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (911) Cleveland Indians |
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08-19-15 | Washington Mystics v. Minnesota Lynx -9.5 | Top | 79-61 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Minnesota is coming off a rare loss and will be out to avoid losing consecutive games for just the second time all season and the motivation will certainly be in place tonight. That defeat came in Washington on Sunday so the Lynx will be out for some immediate revenge on Wednesday. They are just 3-3 over their last six games but all three losses came on the road and on the season, Minnesota has lost just twice at home with the last coming in overtime against Connecticut which came directly after a revenge victory over Tulsa. The Lynx have dropped five of their last six games against the number showing they have not been playing at the high level they are expected to be playing so this is a great spot to turn it up. The Mystics improved to 9-4 at home but are just 5-5 on the road including losses in two straight. Washington has dropped three straight games following a win, losing the last two by 14 and 11 points. This is a big number the Mystics are getting but considering they were getting four points at home in the game Sunday, the value is actually on the side of Minnesota with the switch in venue. Washington will be without center Emma Meesseman after she dislocated a finger Sunday. She's averaging 11.3 ppg on 53.5 percent shooting while averaging 6.3 rpg. 10* (654) Minnesota Lynx |
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08-19-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks +134 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Arizona lost a tough one last night in extra innings as the Diamondbacks managed to score five runs in the eighth and ninth innings only to go down in 15 innings. They fell to three games under .500 on the road which isn't horrible as it is the fifth best record in the National League. Arizona has won six of its last seven games following a loss and is 5-1 in its last six games as an underdog between +110 and +150. Pittsburgh moved back to five games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central and are now one of seven teams in baseball to have at least 40 wins at home. They are paying for it here though in a tough pitching matchup. Robbie Ray gets the ball for Arizona and he has been up and down of late but has not blown up at all as he has not allowed more than four earned runs in any of his 14 starts this season, giving up three runs or less 11 times. He has a 2.54 ERA on the road where four of six starts have been quality. J.A. Happ has not had a start in Pittsburgh with a 4.66 ERA in two starts including allowing four runs in just 4.1 innings in his lone home start. Additionally, he has received just three runs of support overall and the Diamondbacks are 9-1 in their last 10 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 10* (955) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-19-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Philadelphia Phillies +195 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 195 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The Blue Jays have won their last two games including the series opener of this two-game set to keep pace with the Yankees in the American League East. Still, Toronto is five games under .500 on the road and are laying a bigger number tonight than last night despite a tougher matchup. The Phillies have dropped four straight games but the first three came on the road and since the All Star break, they are a solid 9-5 in their 14 home games. Going back, the Phillies are 5-1 in their last six games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Mark Buehrle is the reason for the big price and while he has been outstanding, most of the success has come at home. Toronto is just 6-6 in his 12 road starts and the Blue Jays are 2-5 in Buehrle's last seven starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Adam Morgan has been pretty solid in his first big league season as he has allowed three runs or less in seven of nine starts and is coming off a pair of quality outings. Philadelphia has won three of his four home starts and he actually was able to shut down the Toronto offense the first time he saw them earlier this year on the road, allowing just two runs in six innings. The Phillies are 4-1 in Morgan's last five starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. 10* (976) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-18-15 | Indiana Fever v. LA Sparks -5.5 | Top | 79-68 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Indiana is playing its best basketball of the season as it is now two games behind New York for first place in the Eastern Conference. The Fever have been equally impressive at home and on the road as they have started the trek with impressive double-digit victories over Washington and Phoenix while going back they have won six of seven since the All-Star break and 11 of 14 after a 3-6 start. Tonight presents a much different test however as Los Angeles is also playing its best basketball of the season as it continues to fight for a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Los Angeles' improvement can be traced to Candace Parker's return to the team after missing the season's first two months to rest and after losing a tough one to Minnesota is its first game out of the All Star break, the Sparks have won five of their last seven games. The offense has led the way thanks to Parker as she has made up for the non-productive run from Alana Beard who has just four points over the last three games, one of those in which she didn't even play. We could see big game tonight however. The Fever haven't won here since 2010 and are 2-9 ATS the last 11 meetings here while the Sparks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 10* (604) Los Angeles Sparks |
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08-18-15 | Miami Marlins +139 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 9-6 | Win | 139 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Miami cashed in again last night as it won its second straight road game. The pitching has been solid on this roadtrip thus far while the offense has come through with six runs in each of the last two games and I see that continuing tonight. After a three-game weekend sweep of the Phillies, Milwaukee fell to 10 games under .500 at home with the loss last night. Miami has now won four straight games against winning teams while the Brewers are 1-8 in their last nine when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Milwaukee sends Tyler Cravy to the mound and he is 0-4 in four starts this season due to bad pitching and no run support. He has a 9.64 ERA in two August starts and the offense has managed to score just two runs in those games and five runs overall in his four outings. Miami counters with Adam Conley who has been average as well but it does not hurt that he has received 14 runs in each of his two starts. That offensive backing continues tonight for Conley tonight. 10* (903) Miami Marlins |
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08-18-15 | Minnesota Twins +156 v. New York Yankees | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The Yankees won in extra innings last night for their fourth win in five games to extend their lead in the American League East to a game over the idle Blue Jays. They lost Mark Teixeira last night and his return is questionable tonight. The Yankees are 0-4 in their last four games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Minnesota is still in the playoff hunt as it is just two games out in the American League Wild Card race but it needs to start getting wins against the better teams and the pitching matchup should make that happen tonight. C.C. Sabathia has been all over the place this year and he is once again favored too big. He is coming off a pair of decent outings but has not won since July 8th. Mike Pelfrey picked up a much needed win last time out and he looks to build upon that tonight. He has allowed four runs or less in four of his last five starts and the Twins are 9-4 in his last 13 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (911) Minnesota Twins |
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08-17-15 | Atlanta Braves +153 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
The Braves head to San Diego after taking two of three over the weekend and while the road has not been kind of late, the line has been adjusted because of that so we are getting some solid value. They have won six of their last eight games against teams with a losing record and San Diego comes in following a Sunday loss in Colorado and going back, the Padres have won just two of their last six home games. Overall, the are three games under .500 at home so there is no real advantage with this favored moneyline. Williams Perez looks to build off his last outing where he tossed a quality start against the Rays on the road, his fourth quality outing in his last six road starts. Take out a pair of poor outings prior to his last game and his ERA goes from 4.21 to 2.79 ERA in his other nine starts. The Padres are 2-6 in their last eight games against right-handed starters while the Braves are 4-1 in Perez' last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Colin Rea will be making just his second career start after a decent Major League debut. He was favored in that one against the Reds but is overpriced tonight and don't expect to see the Padres give him the run support like he got last week. 10* (957) Atlanta Braves |
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08-17-15 | Seattle Mariners +134 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
The Mariners have been a major disappointment this season but look to build upon their series closing win in Boston in extra innings. They are just one game under .500 on the road which is pretty solid considering they are seven games under .500 at home. Going back, Seattle is 6-1 in its last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Texas is coming off a sweep against the Rays over the weekend as it remains in the American League playoff hunt. However, the Rangers are 4-13 in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record including just one win in eight home games. Cole Hamels takes the hill tonight and he has been a big disappointment since coming over from the Phillies as he has tossed a pair of non-quality outings. He missed his last start due to a groin injury and that is always a red flag when coming back. He struggled in his first start against Seattle just over a week ago. Seattle counters with Taijuan Walker and he has been extremely solid of late, tossing four straight quality outings, posting a 2.86 ERA in the process. The Mariners are 7-1 in his last eight starts against teams with a winning record while going 6-0 in his last six starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (965) Seattle Mariners |
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08-16-15 | Connecticut Sun v. Atlanta Dream UNDER 159 | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
Both Connecticut and Atlanta are coming off losses on Friday at home so each will be out to get into the win column today but with each team sitting on the outside of the playoff picture, we will be concentrating on the total here. The Sun were thumped by New York as the defense allowed 90 points which pushed the total over the number for the fourth straight game but the value comes into play because of it. The Sun have not seen a total this high all season as the biggest number previous to this was 157 and while that went over, it was against Chicago, the highest scoring offense in the WNBA. Atlanta nearly pulled off the upset at home against Minnesota but fell a bucket short, its sixth loss in its last seventh game. That game surpassed the total which was the third straight over for the Dream as well as the seventh over their last eight games. That is a big reason the total is set where it is today but with this matchup it is going to show it is way too high. Atlanta has an atrocious defense but Connecticut does not have the consistent offense to take advantage which has been its problem this season. The trends say we see another high scoring game but the contrarian side with the under will be the play today. 10* Under (651) Connecticut Sun/(652) Atlanta Dream |
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08-16-15 | Chicago Cubs +173 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
The much better team is the underdog in this matchup and the reason comes down to starting pitching but we will go against that here in a huge value play. The Cubs have won nine straight games and 15 of their last 16 but have not been able to gain much ground in the National League Central as the Cardinals continue to play well but they have given themselves a cushion in the Wild Card race with a 4.5-game lead over the Giants. The White Sox are now six games under .500 and while they are only five games out of the American Wild Card standings, they are pretty much done. They are still a game over .500 at home but they are 2-7 in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record. Chris Sale is the reason for this line and is coming off a quality start last time out but he has been very inconsistent over the last couple months. He has a pretty average 3.22 ERA at home with the White Sox going just 6-5 in 11 starts. Dan Haren is making his third start for the Cubs and while the first two were far from spectacular, they weren't horrible either. He allowed three earned runs in each as the long ball was his undoing but giving the team a chance to win is the reason the Cubs got him and he is doing so. 10* (929) Chicago Cubs |
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08-15-15 | OTTAWA v. CALGARY -8 | Top | 3-48 | Win | 100 | 83 h 39 m | Show |
We pulled the trigger on Calgary two weeks ago but it failed to cover against Montreal by two points as a safety ended the game. We will come back with them here however as the spot sets up perfectly. It has not been a great start to the season for Calgary which came in as the favorite to repeat as Grey Cup champions. The Stampeders are 4-2 with the losses coming on the road and the four victories coming at home. However, those wins came by a total of only 10 points with two being won by just a single point so even though they have a winning record, they haven't playing at the high level they should be. Because of this, Calgary has yet to cover a game this season, sitting at 0-6 ATS. Ottawa is off to surprisingly good start at 4-2 and those four wins have already doubled their win total from all of last season after finishing 2-16. The schedule has been in the favor of the RedBlacks however as four of six games have come at home. They shocked Montreal in the season opener on the road but were thumped by Edmonton in their other road game. Since then, Ottawa has played three straight home games along with a bye week mixed in there so this is their first road game in 36 days and it is on the other side of the country on top of it. The Stampeders are coming off their bye this past week which helped heal up the offensive line which will be starting the same five for now the fourth straight game. The bye week also allowed more preparation for Calgary as it will be out for revenge after losing at Ottawa in overtime three weeks ago. 10* (118) Calgary Stampeders |
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08-15-15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Minnesota Vikings OVER 36 | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 103 h 8 m | Show |
We won with the Vikings/Steelers under in the Hall of Fame Game but we will go the opposite way this week based on that low scoring game and the bounce angle. Offense was hard to come by last Sunday night with just 17 total points scored but I like the chances of the Minnesota offense to show more life this week with that one game under its belt. The starters are expected to play more and they will be able take advantage of a weak Tampa Bay secondary. The Buccaneers are playing their first preseason game and are in a similar situation as both Pittsburgh and Minnesota last week but that offense has steadily been improving since camp opened. Jameis Winston has already shown improvement in practice, throwing 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions over a two-day period. Facing a real defense for the first time may show signs of growing pains but he has lack of confidence. We saw a similar scenario last season where Minnesota went under in its first game of the preseason against Oakland and the following week flew over the total against Arizona with 58 total points being scored. This is a very common trend in the preseason for many teams. Many will point to the fact that Tampa Bay went 4-0 to the under during the preseason last year but that is meaningless here and if anything, helps with the contrarian value. Fluke plays such as interception or fumble returns for touchdowns are prevalent during the preseason and all it can take is one of those to push a game over although that may not be needed here. 10* Over (275) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/(276) Minnesota Vikings |
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08-15-15 | Los Angeles Angels +159 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a great setup for the Angels. They are 1-4 on this current roadtrip after dropping last night's game 4-1 and coupled with the Astros win, they are 2.5 games behind Houston in the American League West. Kansas City is in complete control of the American League Central as it has a 12-game lead over Minnesota after snapping its two-game skid on Friday. The Royals are prices high tonight because of the pitching matchup but they are 1-5 in their last six games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Johnny Cueto was finally able to pick up his first win with the Royals as he tossed a four-hit shutout against the Tigers. Going against that effort here is always a good play as the prices tend to be inflated because of that last performance and that is the case here. The Angels are 4-1 in their last five games against right-handed starters. And send Matt Shoemaker to the hill as he looks to rebound from his worst starts of the season. He allowed five or more runs in four other starts and followed all of those up solid efforts next time out. The Angels are 12-3 in his last 15 road starts. 10* (973) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-15-15 | Oakland A's +131 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The A's dropped four straight games to open this roadtrip but I like their chances to break that streak tonight. The pitching has been the issue as Oakland has allowed 26 runs during the trip but has been able to respond as the A's are 11-4 in their last 15 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Baltimore has not been able to put much together of late as it is now five games out in the American League East but it is just a game and a half out in the Wild Card. The Orioles are 0-5 in their last five games following a win so stringing together victories has not happened. Miguel Gonzalez gets the ball ad he has been inconsistent all season with just seven of 21 starts being quality outings. He has just one over his last six starts ands Baltimore has won only one of his last five starts when favored. Oakland turns to Chris Bassitt and he has been awesome since entering the rotation. He has allowed three runs or less in all seven starts, posting a 2.27 ERA in those games. He also possesses a powerful 36:7 K:BB ratio. 10* (969) Oakland A's |
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08-15-15 | Tulsa Shock +8.5 v. New York Liberty | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
New York took care of Connecticut last night for its fourth straight victory and its 12th in its last 14. The Liberty now return home where they are 8-2 both straight up and against the number as they look to extend their 2.5-game lead in the Eastern Conference. This is the time to go against New York however as the lines are becoming more inflated by the game. It has been the complete opposite for the Shock as what started out as a great season has turned into a disaster. Tulsa got off to an 8-1 start but has won twice in 15 games since with this losing streak the club's longest since a WNBA-record 20-game skid in 2011. The amazing thing is that the Shock still have a hold of the third playoff spot in the Western Conference so there will be no lack of playing hard. All-Star forward Plenette Pierson will return tonight after getting benched last game. The recent play from both sides is dictating this line but it is hard to ignore the fact that this line has swung 17 points from the first meeting six weeks ago and that is simply to big of a move. 10* (601) Tulsa Shock |
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08-14-15 | St Louis Rams v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 3-18 | Win | 100 | 107 h 25 m | Show |
The first year head coach is always a great angle to play in the preseason if given the right circumstances. I am a fan of playing first year head coaches in their first games as those guys want to infuse a new winning attitude into the team as it is usually the case that the previous season was far from a good one. Many are expecting Oakland to be one of the most improved teams in the NFL as new head coach Jack Del Rio brings with him a winning attitude and the desire to succeed. The Raiders upgraded their talent so now it is up to them to start winning. They ended the season 3-3 following a 0-10 start so winning early is big and in this case, that includes the preseason. Camp has gone exceptionally well thus far and the goal is to keep that going into the first game. The Rams are also expected to be a better team this season or at least are projected to by some. St. Louis went 6-10 last season and remains in one of the toughest divisions in football so it won't be easy. Getting quarterback Nick Foles from the Eagles was the big move and keeping him healthy is a must as he is injury prone just like his predecessor Sam Bradford. He is expected to play just one series according to reports and like Oakland, there will be no gameplanning. Head coach Jeff Fisher, long known as a preseason coach that likes to win, is 0-3 in his three preseason openers since coming to St. Louis. 10* (272) Oakland Raiders |
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08-14-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Atlanta Braves +118 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 118 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The Braves come in as a surprising home underdog and we can take advantage of this number tonight. They dropped both games in Tampa Bay before a day off yesterday and coming home is definitely a god thing where they are seven games over .500 compared to 19 games under .500 on the road. Atlanta has thrived in this role as the Braves are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Arizona is coming off a successful 4-2 homestand as it won both series against Cincinnati and Philadelphia. The Diamondbacks have been a decent road team as they are just two games under .500 on the highway but that doesn't translate to success in this spot as going back, the Diamondbacks are 11-40 in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning home record. Julio Teheran gets the ball for Atlanta and he is having a very disappointing season but that is due to horrific efforts on the road. He is 2-5 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 12 road starts but when pitching at home, he is 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 11 starts. Those splits are significant and in those 11 home outings, he has allowed three runs or fewer 10 times. The Braves are 5-1 in Teheran's last six starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Robbie Ray is having a solid season for Arizona and the road success is making him the favorite here despite Arizona going just 4-3 in his seven road starts. Pitching under the lights has also an asset but the Diamondbacks are only 3-11 in his 11 nighttime starts. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in his last four starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (904) Atlanta Braves |
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08-14-15 | Minnesota Lynx v. Atlanta Dream +8 | Top | 84-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Minnesota is the best team in the WNBA as it is 17-6 and leads the Western Conference by two games over Phoenix with this game starting a very tough stretch where five of the next six are on the road. The Lynx are a very respectable 7-4 on the road but like all other teams, they are not like they are at home and overall, they are outscoring opponents by less than one ppg when playing away. Minnesota has not won a road game by more than seven points since June 19th, a span of seven games on the highway where it is just 4-3 anyway so the fact they are favored by this big number is based on overall numbers and the fact Atlanta is not having a good season. The Dream dropped six straight games prior t o snapping that skid last time out against Tulsa. While making an excuse for losing should not happen, the fact that Atlanta has played only one home game in the last month surely has something to do with that. Atlanta is 5-5 at home and while it did lose its last one, it has not lost consecutive home games all season and overall, the Dream are a perfect 2-0 ATS at home as underdogs. Meanwhile, Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite and we take advantage of this highly inflated number. 10* (654) Atlanta Dream |
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08-14-15 | Carolina Panthers v. Buffalo Bills -3 | Top | 25-24 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 16 m | Show |
The first year head coach is always a great angle to play in the preseason if given the right circumstances. I am a fan of playing first year head coaches in their first games as those guys want to infuse a new winning attitude into the team as it is usually the case that the previous season was far from a good one. In Buffalo's case, it has been much longer as the last postseason appearance was in 1999 and the Music City Miracle. The surprising departure of Doug Marrone led to the hiring of a high profile coach in Rex Ryan and expectations are high. There is talent all over the place and they are thinking postseason so getting off to a big start in front of the home crowd is huge. Another big factor in favoring Buffalo is because of the three-way battle at quarterback between Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor and EJ Manual. Because of this, you will see full effort from each and the playbook gets opened up a little bit more than normal. Despite a 7-8-1 record last year, Carolina won the NFC South for the second straight season and while it certainly has to improve, there is not a whole lot of motivation for winning now as the health of the team come September is most important. Most notably quarterback Cam Newton. The defense that has ranked in the top 10 the past three years has been way ahead of the offense so far and pass protection has been the biggest issue thus far. 10* (266) Buffalo Bills |
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08-13-15 | Miami Dolphins v. Chicago Bears | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 81 h 26 m | Show |
The first year head coach is always a great angle to play in the preseason if given the right circumstances. I am a fan of playing first year head coaches in their first games as those guys want to infuse a new winning attitude into the team as it is usually the case that the previous season was far from a good one. The Marc Trestman experiment in Chicago did not work as he was let go after two seasons following a 13-19 record and not being able to advance the Bears into the postseason. John Fox takes over on the sidelines after mutually parting ways with Denver despite being only the second head coach in the history of the NFL to win four straight division titles since joining a new team. His goal is to improve the horrible defense in Chicago and try to light a spark under quarterback Jay Cutler. With this game taking place at home, he would like nothing more than to win for the fans. He told ESPN 1000 the starters will play approximately one quarter against Miami, but left open the possibility of the first-team working into the second quarter. The Dolphins have playoff expectations this season after consecutive 8-8 records the last two years. They have more vested in quarterback Ryan Tannehill so keeping him healthy for the regular season is the main concern. Typically home teams are favored by around three points the first week and the fact we are getting Chicago at a pickem is an added bonus. 10* (260) Chicago Bears |
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08-13-15 | Oakland A's +138 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
The Blue Jays have won 10 straight games and are in first place in the month of August for the first time since 1993, the last time they made the postseason. While the offense continues to dominate, the pitching has been outstanding over this stretch, allowing three runs or less in nine of those 10 games. Oakland had won three straight before heading to Canada and while the A's are under .500 on the road overall, they have won 10 of their last 19 on the highway and send their ace to the hill in a solid underdog spot. Sonny Gray has been on a roll with four straight quality starts, posting a 1.13 ERA in the process and while only one of those came on the road, he has been awesome in this situation. The A's have won his last six starts as an underdog and his last seven starts on the highway where nine of his 12 outings have been quality performances leading to his 1.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Toronto counters with Mark Buehrle who has been a workhorse as he has gone at least seven innings in nine of his last 10 starts. He possesses his lowest ERA since 2005 but he is hittable as opponents are connecting on 25 percent of his pitches which is the highest in the Majors. Going back, the Blue Jays are 1-5 in Buehrle's last six starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (961) Oakland A's |
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08-12-15 | Milwaukee Brewers +160 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
It was a tough day for underdog bettors yesterday as all 15 home teams won for the first time in the history of baseball. Suffice to say, that was not good on our end. The Cubs were one of those teams that were victorious but we will back the Brewers again tonight in what is a much bigger number despite a better pitching matchup. Chicago has won five straight games but despite being 15 games over .500, the Cubs are just +22 in run differential which is pretty average and was at just +10 prior to this winning streak. Milwaukee fell to 24-30 on the road which is still better than their home success and going back, the Brewers are 6-2 in their last eight games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Matt Garza takes the hill and he will not get backed by many after looking at his overall numbers but he has been pitching very solid of late. He tossed four straight non-quality outings through early July and then landed on the disabled list with right shoulder tendonitis. Since activated, he has made four starts, three being quality and the other missing by just a third of an inning. He has a 2.55 ERA over this stretch. Jason Hammel counters for Chicago and he has been all over the place this season despite decent numbers. His hamstring injury could still be an issue which is never a good thing and going back, the Cubs are 0-6 in his last six home starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (907) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-12-15 | Tulsa Shock v. Connecticut Sun UNDER 152.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
We won with the Washington under last night and we are going under in this game based on some of the same reasons. Connecticut is coming off a split with the Mystics with both of those games going over the total but now the value turns the other way. The Sun have seen the over/under jump up considerably from those two games as it is eight points higher now. A lot of has to do with the opponent as Tulsa is coming off a huge offensive games on both sides as 188 points were scored against Atlanta and that surpassed the total by close to 30 points. Defense has been the issue of late for the Shock as they have allowed at least 84 points in each of their last four games but I don't see that happening here. Connecticut has been extremely inconsistent on offense and its 42.2 percent shooting from the floor is fifth lowest in the WNBA. Another big factor that can keep the total under should it be coming close is that the Sun possess the worst free throw shooting team in the league as they are hitting just 73.9 percent. From a pace standpoints, both teams allow opponents to attempt just 63.3 shots per game which is tied for second lowest in the league. On the season, the teams are a combined 15-9 to the under when the total is in the 150's. 10* Under (601) Tulsa Shock/(602) Connecticut Sun |
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08-11-15 | Milwaukee Brewers +133 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
The Brewers hit the road following a solid end to their homestand where they won four of their last six games following losses in the first five. That included four straight against the Cubs so there will be some retribution in their minds as they open up this three-game set in Chicago. Milwaukee has won four of its last five games following a day off. Chicago has won four straight games so the off day may have been poor timing. Going back, the Cubs have won 10 of their last 11 games but are still 8.5 games back from St. Louis in the National League Central. They do however have a 3.5-game lead over San Francisco for the second Wild Card spot. We will be going against Dan Haren who was pretty average in his Cubs debut after coming over from Miami. He allowed four runs, three earned, in five innings while giving up two home runs. He has now allowed eight home runs over his last four starts. Taylor Jungmann has put together a solid season as he has a 2.26 ERA 1.07 WHIP in 11 starts since entering the rotation. He has now gone eight straight starts in which he's allowed no more than two earned runs and unlike Haren, he has allowed only two home runs all season. The Brewers are 4-0 in Jungmann's last four starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. 10* (953) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-11-15 | Oakland A's +187 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The Blue Jays are the big talk of baseball right now following their three-game road sweep in New York against the Yankees to make it eight straight wins. They are still a game and a half back from the Yankees in the American League East but are a close favorite to Kansas City to win the A.L. Pennant and the World Series. I think however that Toronto is now starting to become a big public team and the linesmakers are adjusting and tonight is a prime example of that. The A's have won three straight to close out a winning homestand where they have struggled all season. The road has been more successful as Oakland is just four games under .500 and catching them at close to a 2-1 underdog is filled with value. Kendall Graveman gets the ball and he has been pretty solid with a 3.90 ERA through 18 starts and tonight he is getting his biggest underdog price of the season by far. Oakland has lost his last five starts which adds to the contrarian value. Drew Hutchison counters for Toronto and his 5.42 ERA is not good but he has been very solid at home despite only four of 11 stats being quality. Run support has been the big factor but I do not expect that to be as strong tonight. His -200 price tag is the most he has been favored by this season. 10* (963) Oakland A's |
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08-11-15 | Indiana Fever v. Washington Mystics UNDER 151 | Top | 73-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Two teams looking to move up in the Eastern Conference standings square off tonight as Indiana heads to Washington. The Mystics are currently in second place while the Fever are a game behind them but neither team is safe with Connecticut sitting in fifth place, just three and a half games out of first place. Both teams have been involved in some high scoring games of late but I expect that to change tonight with the importance of this one as defense should come to the forefront. Indiana has played four straight games that have gone over the total and the last one it matched a franchise record with 59 second-half points and the 106 points scored was the first time they have hit the century mark in close to five years. Washington is coming off a split with Connecticut but both games easily went over the total but we are getting value here tonight. The Mystics have had five previous games with totals in the 150's and four stayed under with last four staying below the posted number. The last two meetings this season between Indiana and Washington have stayed under the total by a combined 65.5 points and we look for that to continue tonight. 10* Under (653) Indiana Fever/(654) Washington Mystics |
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08-10-15 | Los Angeles Angels +135 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Los Angeles is coming off a 4-2 homestand following series wins over Cleveland and Baltimore and is now within a half-game of Houston in the American League West. The road hasn't been kind of late as the Angels have dropped six straight games on the highway but those two series came against division leaders the Dodgers and the Astros. The White Sox were swept at Kansas City over the weekend to make it eight losses over their last 10 games following a seven-game winning streak. They are right at .500 at home but are significant favorites tonight because of the pitching matchup which is unrealistic in my opinion. Chris Sale looks to bounce back from a pair or horrible starts where he allowed seven runs in each and he has been pretty inconsistent over the last few weeks. He has posted a 4.77 ERA over his last eight starts with only four of those being quality outings. The Angels are 8-2 in their last 10 games against left-handed starters. Matt Shoemaker is not getting the respect he deserves as he has not allowed a run over 19 innings since the All Star break and going back further, he has a 1.78 ERA over his last six starts. The Angels are 11-1 in his last 12 road starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (911) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-09-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Minnesota Vikings UNDER 34.5 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 226 h 59 m | Show |
The Hall of Fame Game is typically a very low scoring game as in this stage of the preseason, the defenses are a step ahead of the offense. Six of the last eight Hall of Fame games have stayed under the total, including three of the last four and while those past outcomes do not predict future results, it does show how defenses are more in sync early in the preseason. Going back to 1984, only seven of the 30 HOF games have eclipsed 40 points and a lot of that is due to fluke plays. This includes an inception return for a touchdown taking place in each of the last five games that have gone over 40 points so simply avoiding that gives us a great opportunity to cash in a low scoring game. The 30 games have seen an average of just over 32 ppg and 13 of the 30 have seem totals of 27 of less points scored. The big news out of Pittsburgh is how potent the offense is expected to be this season but don't expect to see that from the Steelers here as a vanilla offense will be on the field for the majority of this game. The same can be expected from Minnesota and there has not been a lot of prep time for either team as according to the collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and its players association, teams can't hold training-camp practices more than two weeks before their first preseason game. It may be boring to watch but the NFL is here and we should see yet another very low scoring game right out of the gates. 10* Under (241) Pittsburgh Steelers/(242) Minnesota Vikings |
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08-09-15 | LA Sparks v. Minnesota Lynx -5.5 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Minnesota has dropped two straight games for the first time since the end of last season but both of those games were on the road and heading back home in a great revenge spot will get it back on track. The Lynx lost at Phoenix Friday to allow the Mercury to pull within a game of first place in the Western Conference. Prior to that, Minnesota was thumped at Los Angeles by 22 points, by far its biggest loss of the season. So they will be out for payback here. Despite being seven games under .500, the Sparks are still in the playoff hunt in the Western Conference thanks to a poor bottom side of the conference as well as four straight wins. The Sparks are no doubt a better team with Candace Parker in the lineup but they are getting too much respect here. The Lynx were favored by 2.5 points at Los Angeles and are now favored by just three points more at home despite complete opposite records of Minnesota's 8-2 home record and Los Angeles' 2-8 road record. The Lynx are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss while the Sparks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. 10* (608) Minnesota Lynx |
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08-09-15 | Texas Rangers +164 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Seattle is a very below average team this season after coming in with very high expectations. The Mariners are nine games under .500 overall which is the same differential at home after losing yesterday to the Rangers 11-3. Texas has gotten back into the Wild Card hunt as it is just three games out and the road success has been the reason. The Rangers are 32-25 on the highway which is the best road record in all of baseball yet the respect is not there. They have won seven straight games as underdogs and send Colby Lewis to the hill today who has been very consistent this season even though his ERA may not show it. His WHIP of 1.21 does in fact show he is having a great season. He has tossed 14 quality outings over his 22 starts including 10 of his last 12. He had a trio of poor outings against the Indians, Angels Astros and take those out and his ERA is 3.29 over his other 19 games. Felix Hernandez is the reason this line is so big but he is not having a typical King Felix season. He has a 3.13 ERA which is very solid but he has been pretty average after a hot start. He has posted a 4.32 ERA over his last 12 starts and facing the Rangers won't help as Seattle has won just three of his last 10 games against Texas. 10* (977) Texas Rangers |
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08-09-15 | San Francisco Giants +157 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
The Giants will be out to avoid the four-game sweep in Wrigley Field this afternoon after dropping their third straight game but still remain three games back of the Dodgers in the National League West. This is definitely a big game to get back into the groove before returning home for two big series with Houston and Washington. Catching St. Louis is not going to happen for the Cubs but they are in the second spot in the Wild Card standings with the Giants just 2.5 games back which makes this an even bigger swing game for San Francisco. Jake Peavy has been awesome since coming back from injury as five of his six starts have been quality outings with the only non-quality performance being not that bad. He faced the Cubs twice last year and allowed just four runs over 13 innings. He has a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in four daytime starts and going back, the Giants are 8-1 in Peavy's last nine starts following a quality start in his last appearance. Jake Arrieta has been on fire of late with nine straight quality starts but the Cubs are paying the price for it today, one that is inflated too much. He has been better on the road than at home while the Cubs are 4-6 in his 10 home starts and 1-5 in his last six starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (963) San Francisco Giants |
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08-08-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers +136 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
St. Louis has tossed two straight shutouts, Thursday at Cincinnati and last night in this series opener with Milwaukee. Overall, the Cardinals have won three straight on the road but they have been slow in these spots as going back they are 4-9 in their last 13 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Brewers had their three-game winning streak snapped last night as they allowed more than four runs for the just the second time in eight games. While the home field has not been kind, I look for a bounce back tonight as a big home underdog that the public is going against heavy. Wily Peralta is making just his third start since May and the recent results have been split as he is coming off a tough outing against the Padres but he has been a great bounce back pitcher throughout his career. The Brewers are 6-1 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game while going 12-3 in Peralta's last 15 starts in the same situation. Jaime Garcia has been extremely solid through nine starts but he is getting no run support which explains the Cardinals 4-5 record in those starts including 1-3 on the road. He is well known for his home dominance and his road inconsistency and going back, the Cardinals are 4-9 in his last 13 starts as a road favorite. 10* (908) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-07-15 | Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves +146 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 146 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Despite just 17 road wins the entire season, the Marlins are one of the top road consensus teams of Friday because of the starting pitching. They lost the opener of this series last night and have now dropped four straight games on the highway while falling 19 games under .500 on the road overall. The Braves moved to 2-2 on the current homestand and sit six games over .500 at home. They have won six of their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and Atlanta has won 10 of its last 14 games as a home underdog of +150 or less. Jose Fernandez is the key to this line tonight and he is coming off another strong outing where he tossed six innings of shutout ball. He has made only six starts since coming back from Tommy John surgery last season and he has yet to lose, going 4-0 but only two starts have been on the road. In his career he is perfect at home, going 15-0 with a 1.14 ERA and 0.88 WHIP but he is just 5-8 on the road while posting a 3.87 ERA. Atlanta counters with Julio Teheran who has been up and down but also thrives at home where he is 5-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 10 starts, seven of those resulting in Atlanta victories. The Marlins are 1-7 in their last eight games against right-handed starters. 10* (958) Atlanta Braves |
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08-07-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Pittsburgh Pirates +135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 135 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
After losing the opener in their series against the Phillies, the Dodgers came back to win the final two games and take a three-game lead in the National League West into their weekend series with the Pirates. They are still under .500 on the road yet come in as a favorite because of Clayton Kershaw being on the mound. The Dodgers are 1-4 in their last five games as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and Kershaw looks to break that as he has now gone four straight starts without allowing a run but this will be a big test. His road work has been solid overall but he is just 3-4 on the highway while Los Angeles has won only five of his 11 road outings. Pittsburgh is 18 games over .500 at home and it also sends its ace to the hill as Gerrit Cole looks to add to his Major League leading 14th win. He has a better ERA than Kershaw and in 10 home starts, eight have been quality performances with the Pirates winning eight of those 10 games. Going back, the Pirates are 7-0 in Cole's last seven home starts against teams with a winning record and this is his first start of the season where he comes in as the underdog. 10* (954) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-07-15 | Washington Mystics v. Connecticut Sun OVER 142.5 | Top | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Both Washington and Connecticut are coming off wins in their most recent games over San Antonio and we will be taking a look at the over for tonight as we are getting some excellent value based on recent results. Washington has gone under the total in three straight games and on the season, the Mystics are 1-8 to the under when playing on the road so we will be going against that run here. The Sun stayed below the number in their last game against the Stars as they held San Antonio to just 51 points, easily the lowest point total allowed this season. Connecticut has held only one other team to fewer than 60 points before that and in the next game it flew above the total by over 30 points. The Sun have stayed under the number in three straight games at home but those over/unders were all higher than what is posted tonight. On the season, Connecticut home games are averaging 148 points and going back, the Sun are 5-1 to the over following a win in their previous game. The first meeting last month went over the total by close to 30 points and I expect another high scoring affair tonight. 10* Over (601) Washington Mystics/(602) Connecticut Sun |
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08-06-15 | Boston Red Sox +135 v. New York Yankees | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
We won with the Red Sox last night behind a strong performance from Steven Wright and we will back them again tonight in what is another good matchup. Boston snapped its eight-game road losing streak with the victory last night and that momentum is key here. The Yankees saw their lead drop to 4.5 games in the American League East with a huge series against Toronto on deck. Wednesday we went against the young phenom Luis Severino in his Major League debut as the price was simply too big and Thursday we will be going against a veteran whose price is also way too much. C.C. Sabathia used to be very dominant not too long ago but that has not been the case the last couple years. He has a 5.54 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through 20 starts this season and there has been talk of him losing his spot in the rotation. He has allowed 10 runs over his last two starts and since a good run to open June, he has posted a 6.21 ERA over his last 10 starts. His home numbers are even worse as he has a 6.80 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in eight starts. Eduardo Rodriguez counters for Boston and he has been either really good or really bad this season. In three starts against Toronto, Baltimore and Los Angeles, he has a 19.80 ERA but in his other nine starts, he has a 1.60 ERA with eight of those being quality. 10* (915) Boston Red Sox |
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08-06-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds +157 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
The Cardinals pulled out a win last night in extra innings but ever since a five-game winning streak late last month, they have not been able to get a run going. They are just 5-5 over their last 10 games and after a 7-3 start to the season on the road, they are just a game over .500 since then on the highway yet once again come in as significant road favorites. Cincinnati is still three games over .500 at home which is certainly nothing spectacular but the Reds have won four of their last five following a loss and send Michael Lorenzen to the hill this afternoon to try and shake his slump. He closed the first half of the season on a tear, posting a 2.83 ERA over his last five starts but his three starts since then have not been good at all. Look for the streak to end here against the Cardinals which are a team he has never faced. St. Louis counters with Michael Wacha which is a big reason it is such a big chalk today but the road has not been very good of late despite the overall good numbers. Since a quality start against the Dodgers to start June, he has posted a 7.54 ERA in his last four road outings, none of which have been quality. While St. Louis is 3-0 in his three career home starts against the Reds, the Cardinals are just 1-3 in four road games. 10* (902) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-05-15 | New York Mets v. Miami Marlins +153 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The Mets remain hot as they have won five straight games following their victory last night over Miami. It was a rare second consecutive road victory for New York which has won back-to-back road games only three times all season and overall, the Mets are 4-14 in their 18 road games following a win in their last road game. Miami has dropped six of its last seven games following a win over Washington to open this homestand to fall three games under .500 at home. Matt Harvey started the recent streak and looks to keep his impressive run going as he has tossed four straight quality outings. While the Mets are 9-2 in his 11 home starts, they are just 3-6 in nine road starts and going back are 1-6 in his last seven road starts against teams with a losing record. He has struggled here with a 4.50 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in three starts, all Mets losses. David Phelps is having a decent season even though the wins are not coming as he has a 3.93 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 17 starts. He has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts and has posted a 2.08 ERA over his last four home starts. The Mets are 8-20 in their last 28 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (962) Miami Marlins |
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08-05-15 | Boston Red Sox +171 v. New York Yankees | Top | 2-1 | Win | 171 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The Yankees took it to Boston last night as they spoiled a solid Major League debut from Henry Owens. They put up nine runs in the seventh inning to put the game away and have now scored 25 runs the last two games. New York is 5.5 games up in the American League East and are laying a bigger number tonight which we can take advantage of. Boston was playing well on the road up until a couple weeks ago as it currently owns an eight-game road losing streak and it has not lost nine in a row away from home since a 10-game skid back in 2001. The Red Sox look to turn things around behind Steven Wright whose numbers may not look impressive but he has been pretty steady. He allowed six runs against the Angels in his only bad start and has given up three runs or less in each of his other six starts. Wright won his only appearance against New York this year, allowing just two runs over five innings of relief in a 6-5, 19-inning road victory. Luis Severino is making his highly anticipated debut and while he is one of the top prospects in the Yankees organization, laying this number is a very risky investment in a pitcher's first big league game. We take advantage of this inflated line. 10* (975) Boston Red Sox |
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08-05-15 | SA Silver Stars +9.5 v. Washington Mystics | Top | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
San Antonio is the lone team in the WNBA that has yet to win a road game as it fell to 0-10 after getting pounded by 31 points last night in Connecticut. The Stars have been competitive in half of their road games so they haven't been blown out like that all of the time. Washington is on an ATS roll right now as it has covered six straight games and that is no doubt playing into this number. The Mystics did lose in their last game straight up on Sunday in Chicago was were able to sneak in under the spread. Washington is outscoring opponents by just 5.8 ppg at home and going back, the Mystics are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games against team with a losing record. Minnesota is the one team in the league that has been able to cover big numbers as it is 5-2 ATS when laying nine or more points but that success is not the same for other teams as the rest of the league is just 2-7 ATS in that role. This includes Washington losing its only game against the number in that price range. While road revenge is not a great angle, the Stars will no doubt be motivated as they lost at home against Washington this past Friday by 35 points, by far their biggest home loss of the season. 10* (601) San Antonio Stars |
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08-04-15 | Minnesota Lynx -2.5 v. Los Angeles Sparks | Top | 61-83 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Typically we stay away from road chalk but there is too much value here not to back Minnesota. This is the second game of a three-game roadtrip for the Lynx after winning in Tulsa on Saturday and then concludes Friday with a big game at Phoenix. Minnesota has won three straight games and going back, it is 7-1 over its last eight games. The Lynx are 7-3 ATS this season against losing teams and their loaded roster takes on los Angeles for the second meeting in a week. The Sparks are a rejuvenated bunch as they have won their last two games, both on the road and both being their first road victories of the season. They have been a much better team at home obviously but not by much and they are just 1-4 ATS this season here against teams with a winning record. The return of Candice Parker has been a big boost but the Lynx counter with newly acquired Sylvia Fowles who has gotten progressively better in her three games in Minnesota after sitting out the first half of the season in Chicago. Going back, the Sparks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a win and I expect that streak to continue after tonight. 10* (655) Minnesota Lynx |
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08-04-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Atlanta Braves +113 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The Braves shocked San Francisco last night as they rallied from a 6-0 deficit to tie the game when catcher A.J. Pierzynski hit a two-run homer with two outs in the ninth inning and then won when Adonis Garcia hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the 12th. That is the type of game that can carry over into the next day which I expect to happen here. San Francisco is just 1-3 on the roadtrip now and is now only two games over .500 on the road for the season. The Braves moved to seven games over .500 at home and send Shelby Miller to the hill. He has been the Braves most consistent starter as he has a 2.44 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through 17 starts. His ERA drops to 1.89 at home and while he has only two wins to show for it, that is because of a lack of run support but I expect that to change here and snap the eight-game skid for Atlanta in his last eight outings. Jake Peavy has been solid since his return from injury with the Giants winning his last three starts. The last two came at home however and on the road, he possesses a 5.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. 10* (908) Atlanta Braves |
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08-04-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds +124 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 124 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The Reds will be the third home underdog played tonight as they look to build upon their recent 4-2 run. That includes a pair of shutouts in St. Louis last week, the most recent being a 1-0 decision with this same pitching matchup. Cincinnati is three games over .500 at home and going back, the Reds are 5-1 in their last games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Anthony DeSclafani gets the ball for Cincinnati and he was solid against St. Louis last time out as he tossed seven shutout innings while allowing only three hits. Only four of nine home starts have been quality outings and that is a big reason the line is what it is. While the Reds are just 1-3 in his four daytime starts, they are 9-7 in his 16 starts under the lights. John Lackey has been awesome this season for St. Louis, at least at home he has. His ERA is 1.89 in 12 home starts but that balloons to 4.19 in nine starts on the road with St. Louis winning just three of those. He has struggled big time in two starts in Cincinnati, allowing six runs in eight combined innings and going back, the Cardinals are 3-10 in his last 13 road starts. 10* (912) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-04-15 | Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates +116 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The Cubs had their five-game winning streak stalled for a day at least as last night's game between Chicago and Pittsburgh was rained out after a pair of lengthy delays. The Cubs are 9.5-game out in the National League Central and four games behind the Pirates in the Wild Card standings. Pittsburgh is coming off a 4-2 roadtrip and returns home with a 35-17 record, including wins in six of their last seven against winning teams. J.A. Happ makes his Pirates debut tonight and a chance in atmosphere can only help as the month of July in season was a disaster. His problem was pitching in the daytime as he posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 10 early starts but put up a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 11 starts under the lights. Jake Arrieta counters for the Cubs and he has been rock solid with a 2.62 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 21 starts. Chicago is just five games over .500 in those games which is pretty average with those numbers as a lack of run support has been the big obstacle. Pittsburgh has won 19 of its last 26 games against righty starters and getting them as a home dog is a must take. 10* (902) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-02-15 | Washington Mystics v. Chicago Sky -3.5 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
We lost with Chicago in its most recent game, a shocking 11-point loss at home against Los Angeles which made it two straight setbacks for the Sky. I look for them to bounce back Sunday as they have not lost consecutive regular season home game since early July of last season. Chicago is 7-2 at home and is coming off its worst offensive showing here but is still averaging a monster 90.4 ppg. That offense will be tested by the leagues best defense tonight but it didn't show in the last meeting here where Chicago rolled to an 85-57 win and that got the Mystics attention as they have now won five straight games since then with only one of those even coming close to the pointspread as Washington has covered all five games as well. That is giving us the value on Sunday which shows how much a wining streak can affect a number as it is now a bucket less than it was in the last meeting here just over two weeks ago. Chicago has covered four of its last five against winning teams while Washington is just 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games within the Eastern Conference. 10* (608) Chicago Sky |
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08-02-15 | Cleveland Indians +142 v. Oakland A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Cleveland had its three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with a 5-1 loss in Oakland while the A's were able to snap their three-game skid with the victory. Neither team will be sniffing he postseason this year but I love the value with Cleveland here on the road where it is still a solid five games over .500 while Oakland is nine games under .500 at home. Part of the road success is due to Trevor Bauer where he brings in a 2.47 ERA 1.05 WHIP in nine road outings, seven of which have been quality starts. He is coming off his worst road outing of the season at Cincinnati but he has been more consistent here overall and Oakland has won just one of its last seven games against right-handed starters. Additionally, the Indians are 5-1 in Bauer's last six starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Sonny Gray is coming off a three-hit shutout against the Angels in his last start which was his second straight road shutout. He has not been as consistent at home of late as he has posted a 5.69 ERA in his last three home starts. He got shelled coming off his last shutout and I expect troubles here as well and on top of it, the A's are 1-4 in Gray's last five home starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (923) Cleveland Indians |
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08-01-15 | Minnesota Lynx v. Tulsa Shock +5.5 | Top | 86-80 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
It has been a very rough stretch for Tulsa after getting off to a surprisingly great start. The Shock opened the season with a loss against Minnesota then went on to win eight consecutive games only to go on their current skid of 2-8 including losses in five straight games. They have failed to cover any of these most recent five games and that is providing us with some additional value. The Shock have dropped the last three games at home and the first happened to come against the Lynx where they lost by seven points no thanks to a poor third quarter. Tulsa was getting 3.5 points there and are now getting a bucket more. Minnesota solidified itself as the favorite to win the WNBA title after acquiring Sylvia Fowles from Chicago as the Lynx now have the most talented lineup in the league. They have won their first two games out of the break but they are in a tough spot here as they are playing with no rest as well as this being their third game in a four nights which is a rare scheduling situation in this league. Tulsa needs a win badly and it has already defeated Minnesota once this season so it knows it can get it done. Going back, the Lynx are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record while Tulsa is 4-1 ATS this season as an underdog of five or more points. 10* (652) Tulsa Shock |
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08-01-15 | Washington Nationals +139 v. New York Mets | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
The Mets won in walkoff fashion last night to pull within two games of the Nationals in the National League East and things are looking good to inch even close after today with the pitching matchup. However, I do not think is going to be as easy as expected and I think Washington is getting a good number here which is based on name. Not many people know of Joe Ross with all of the other talent in the rotation but he has been very solid since entering the rotation. He's allowed three or fewer runs in all five starts to begin his major league career and overall has a 3.03 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 34:3 K:BB ratio covering 32.2 innings. He lost a tough one to the Mets in his first start against them as he tossed a quality outing but the bullpen let him down. Jacob deGrom opposed him then as well and he once again has been pitching great with a 2.05 ERA and 0.88 WHIP on the season and that ERA drops even more at home. But it rises in his starts at night and New York is just 6-5 in his 11 starts under the lights while going just 4-4 within the division. Going back, the Nationals are 11-5 in their last 16 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (955) Washington Nationals |
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08-01-15 | MONTREAL v. CALGARY -4.5 | Top | 22-25 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 18 m | Show |
It has not been a great start to the season for Calgary which came in as the favorite to repeat as Grey Cup champions. The Stampeders are 3-2 with the losses coming on the road and the three victories coming at home. However, those wins came by a total of seven points with two being won by just a single point so even though they have a winning record, they haven't playing at the high level they should be. Because of this, Calgary has yet to cover a game this season, sitting at 0-5 ATS. Montreal meanwhile is off to a 2-2 start following a victory against Hamilton two weeks ago. Positive momentum could have been lost because of the bye week and now the Alouettes hit the road for the first time in three weeks and for just the second time this season. They have covered three straight games so have converging contrarian angles to play with. One of the victories came against Calgary in Week Two as they defeated the Stampeders by 18 points as a 9.5-point underdog so we are now seeing a huge line shift with definite value on the home side. Revenge also comes into play for Calgary which has a bye on deck. Going back, the Stampeders are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss and we should see their best effort of the season right here. 10* (326) Calgary Stampeders |
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08-01-15 | Detroit Tigers +132 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
After winning a slugfest Thursday by a run to open this series, the Tigers dropped a one run offense showing last night and will be out to get it back tonight. Detroit sold a lot prior to the trade deadline so the Tigers are looking toward the future but the talent is still in place to keep things respectable and they are catching a good number in an advantageous pitching matchup. Anibal Sanchez gets the ball for the Tigers and he is coming off a pair of non-quality outings but they were far from horrible. The defeat snapped a seven-game winning streak for him and an eight-game winning streak for Detroit in his starts. His 4.27 ERA on the road does not look enticing however, five of his seven road starts have been quality performances and he is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in three career starts against the Orioles. The Tigers are 10-1 in his last 11 road starts against teams with a winning record. Baltimore counters with Kevin Gausman who is coming off a solid start where he allowed no runs in 7.2 innings which is a very positive sign. The not so positive sign is the fact that after allowing no runs the first time this year, he allowed seven runs in just 3.2 innings next time out. Going back, the Orioles are 1-5 in his last six starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (967) Detroit Tigers |
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07-31-15 | Los Angeles Angels +200 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
The Angels saw their lead in the American League West vanish as they were swept by the Astros and now trail Houston by two games. I like the bounce back angle here as they are huge underdogs facing the hottest pitcher in baseball that is not 100 percent. Clayton Kershaw has pitched 26 scoreless innings with a 38/0 K/BB ratio in his last three starts but he was scratched on Wednesday due to a hip injury and while he is fine to resume pitching, it has to be a concern. Despite his awesome run, going back the Dodgers are 3-4 over his last seven starts and the Angels are 8-1 in their last nine games against left-handed starters. Hector Santiago has been extremely solid in his own right and has gone eight straight starts of allowing three runs or less. His home/road splits are nearly identical and pitching on five days rest is ideal as the Angels are 6-0 in his last six starts when he is pitching on five days rest. The value is too good to pass up here. 10* (929) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-31-15 | SASKATCHEWAN +10.5 v. EDMONTON | Top | 5-30 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
As mentioned many times, I am not a proponent of road revenge but I think this is a good spot for that even though there are much bigger motivators involved. Saskatchewan is off to a 0-5 start and last week's loss by 10 points was the biggest of the season thus far. We had the Roughriders in that game which was close throughout and turned into another late blown lead for the home team. Saskatchewan has certainly played better than that record indicates however as they have four games by four points or less including two in overtime. The Roughriders have outgained three of five opponents and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by an average of nearly 60 ypg. Now they are getting double-digits because of the winless record. Edmonton is off to a 3-1 start including wins in each of its last three games while covering all three as well. The Eskimos have won those games by 29, 1 and 29 points so that too is playing into this line as they have been dominant of late. They knocked Saskatchewan out of the playoffs last season which is an added motivator for the Roughriders. We are obviously going contrarian but the CFL is the biggest contrarian league around which is where the success has come from in the past. 10* (323) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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07-31-15 | LA Sparks v. Chicago Sky -5 | Top | 88-77 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The Sparks are having a miserable season yet they continue to be overvalued with the pointspread. They are 3-14 on the season which is the worst record in the WNBA and at 0-8 on the road, they are one of two teams in the league that are winless on the highway. Los Angeles has bolstered the league's second worst offense with the return of Candice Parker who rested during the first half of the season but even she isn't enough to turn this horrible season around. The Sparks are getting outscored by nearly 10 ppg on the road and the task won't be any easier tonight as they head to Chicago where it is 7-1 at home and the Sky are bringing in a five-game home winning streak, which is their top run since opening the 2013 season 5-0 in Rosemont. They opened the second half of the season with an overtime loss in Phoenix but their offense continue to dominate as their 85.8 ppg easily is the most in the league. Chicago also leads the WNBA in field goal percentage and free throw shooting and the Sparks won't have an answer as they are allowing the third most points in the Western Conference. 10* (608) Chicago Sky |
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07-31-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks +136 v. Houston Astros | Top | 6-4 | Win | 136 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Both Arizona and Houston are coming off series sweeps and I expect the Diamondbacks to keep it rolling as they have now won five straight games. The Astros could definitely be ripe for a letdown as they overtook the Angels in the American League West and they send their most unreliable pitcher to the hill tonight. Scott Feldman is coming off one of his best starts of the season but he has been inconsistent throughout the season especially at home where he possesses a 5.62 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over seven starts with Houston going just 3-4 in those games. Going back, the Astros are 2-9 in Feldman's last 11 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Arizona counters with Rubby De La Rosa who is coming off a pair of gems since the All Star break, allowing just one run in 15 innings. Five of his nine road starts have been quality and the Diamondbacks are 4-0 in his last four starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (927) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-30-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Boston Red Sox +165 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 165 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
The White Sox are the hottest team in baseball with seven straight wins to move one game under .500 and remain in the playoff hunt. Their ace goes tonight so things are looking even better but of course, there is as price to pay and we will go against that run and the public opinion once again. Chris Sale is having a fantastic season and while being favored on the road is a common occurrence, tonight is the most he has been favored by on the highway all season long. Despite a 12-7 record in his starts, the White Sox are just +1.2 units and they have gone 1-5 in his last six starts in Game Four of a series. The Red Sox are 6-2 in their last eight games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 and they send Steven Wright to the mound. His numbers are far from awe inspiring but he has been pretty solid in his starts with the exception of one poor one against the Angels and here he gets a good matchup. He has allowed three runs or less in his other five starts and his issue has been the long ball where he has allowed 10 home runs in just 52.2 innings but the White Sox have hit the third fewest home runs in baseball. 10* (968) Boston Red Sox |
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07-30-15 | Detroit Tigers +149 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 9-8 | Win | 149 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
We won with the Tigers yesterday afternoon as they snapped a three-game losing skid and were able to pick up a game in the American League Wild Card race where they are now three games back. It still might be too little, too late for Detroit this is a good price as it is 3-2 as dogs of +140 or more since June with two of those wins coming against Corey Kluber and Chris Archer. Alfredo Simon is 2-0 in those games and he takes the hill tonight coming off a promising performance in his last start which ended a streak of six straight non-quality starts. Despite average numbers overall, the Tigers are 11-8 in his 19 starts and winning is the obvious important factor here. Going back, the Tigers are 6-0 in Simon's last six starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Miguel Gonzalez counter for the Orioles, winners of five in a row, and for a pitcher that has been just as inconsistent, he is heavily overpriced here. This is actually the most he has been favored by all season with Baltimore losing the only other time he was favored by more than -130. Since late June, he holds a 5.45 ERA over six starts. 10* (965) Detroit Tigers |
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