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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +15.5 v. Boise State | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 35 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our Thursday Star Attraction. Boise St. heads back home following a disappointing loss at Washington St. last Saturday and regrouping will be difficult. The Broncos returned a fumble 55 yards for a touchdown with 10:53 remaining in the game to take a 31-10 lead only to see the Cougars score three touchdowns including an interception return and the tying score set up by muffed punt. Boise St. eventually lost in triple overtime to even its record at 1-1 and the dominant Broncos days look to be numbered. There are questions all over the field as Boise St. has just nine returning starters from last season which is the fewest in the MWC and it is the No. 119 experienced team in the country (out of 130). New Mexico is coming off a loss against rival New Mexico St., the second straight loss in the series with the Aggies. While the Lobos followed up the loss last season with another loss, that game was against Rutgers where they had to travel to the east coast so this is a much different situation. New Mexico is coming off back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 2006-2007 and are more than capable of making it three straight postseason appearances for the first time since 2002-2004. Certainly, there was no shortage of things the Lobos did wrong against the Aggies including four turnovers, 13 penalties, missed opportunities, lack of a pass rush and poor coverage in the secondary. The good news is a short week can have a positive effect. The home field advantage for Boise St. as it has gone 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games and that lone cover came by just a half-point. Meanwhile, the Lobos are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss. 10* (103) New Mexico Lobos |
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09-14-17 | Royals +185 v. Indians | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
What Cleveland has done is certainly remarkable as its 21-game winning streak is now the longest in American League history. There are plenty of goals remaining for the Indians with breaking the all-time baseball winning streak of 26 games being at the bottom of the list. They are going for home field advantage throughout the playoffs as they are now 2.5 games in front of the Astros in the American League and four games behind the Dodgers in all of baseball. Taking nothing away from the streak but the last 14 wins have come against teams that are most likely out of the playoff chase. Kansas City is hanging around in the American League Wild Card race and while facing the Indians is not ideal being four games out, this can work in their favor. After the four-game set against the Indians, the Royals nine of their next 10 games are against teams at least 10 games under .500. Kansas City is 8-6 over its last 14 road games and they have won six of their last seven games following a loss. Jakob Junis has the task of slowing down a Cleveland offense that has been rather inconsistent as it has scored five runs or less in five of its last six games. Junis has been one of the most consistent Royals starters of late as he has allowed three runs or less in six straight games since re-entering the rotation, five of which have been two runs or less and his ERA over this stretch is 2.48. This is his first ever start against the Indians which is a big advantage. Cleveland counters with Josh Tomlin who is making his third start after missing over a month. He has been decent but not dominating and is arguably the one pitcher that could get lit up compared to the other starters that have been lights out. 10* (967) Kansas City Royals |
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09-13-17 | Reds +155 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-0 | Win | 155 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
St. Louis jumped out to an 8-0 start after four innings and never looked back as it won its fourth straight game to open this homestands. The Cardinals remained two games behind the Cubs in the National League Central and three games behind the Rockies in the National League Wild Card chase. Going back, the Cardinals are just 6-5 in their last 11 games at home. The Reds lost three of four games against the Mets before the defeat last night but are catching a favorable number based on a pitching matchup where they are not at as big of a disadvantage as this line is dictating. Last night, Cincinnati faced Lance Lynn who had allowed two runs or less in 12 of his previous 13 starts so a big moneyline was justified. Tonight, they face Jack Flaherty who is making just his third ever Major League start and was fortunate for those to come in two of the best pitcher-friendly park in baseball, Petco Park and AT&T Park. He did well in San Diego after a poor debut against the Giants and overall, he has a 6.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in nine innings. Tyler Mahle counters for the Reds and he is making just his fourth start following three decent yet unspectacular outings. He has allowed three runs or less in all of those which has translated into a 3.60 ERA which includes a 2.70 ERA in two road starts. 10* (909) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-13-17 | Mets +260 v. Cubs | Top | 5-17 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The Cubs snapped a three-game slide with a win last night in the series opener against the Mets as they scored eight runs after scoring a total of three runs in the three previous games. A three-run home run from Kris Bryant was the difference and while putting up the eight-spot was nice, this offense has not been right all season. Chicago is two games up in the National League Central and the second-half surge can be attributed to the starting pitching. This is just the fourth time all season that the Cubs have been home favorites of -250 or higher and they went 1-2 the first three times. The Mets have lost two straight games following a four-game winning streak and despite unloading a ton of their offense, they have been hitting the ball well, averaging 5.6 rpg over their last nine games. While the starting pitching has been the recent strength for the Cubs, Jon Lester has been inconsistent as his command has been a concern. He went through a nice stretch from mid-July through mid-August as he benefitted from big run support but over his last three starts, he has an 8.53 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. The Mets are hitting .287 on the road against left-handed pitching. New York hands the ball to Matt Harvey who came off a horrible outing after coming off the DL but responded with a solid outing last time out and looks to carry that into Wrigley. 10* (905) New York Mets |
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09-12-17 | Padres +158 v. Twins | Top | 0-16 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Despite a pair of loss against the Royals to close their roadtrip, the Twins kept hold of the second Wild Card spot in the American League as they are a game up on the Angels with four other teams within 3.5 games at the most. Minnesota is back home and in must win mode which affects moneylines this time of the season because team vying for the postseason are having their numbers inflated despite not having big advantages. The Twins are two games under .500 at home and are just 3-10 in their last 13 games following a day off. San Diego has been out of the playoff picture for some time now but it has been playing well for a while as the Padres are 8-5 over their last 13 games as the offense has come to life in those victories. We can expect the offense to keep it going against Kyle Gibson who is currently on one of the best runs of his career. He has allowed three runs or less in eight straight starts which has come out of nowhere after he posted a 6.29 ERA through his first 17 starts. San Diego counters with Travis Wood who has been decent since coming over from Kansas City with the exception of two bad starts. One of those came last time out and after a similar start last month, he bounced back with a solid outing and a victory. 10* (979) San Diego Padres |
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09-12-17 | Washington Mystics +9.5 v. Minnesota Lynx | Top | 81-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Washington heads to Minnesota for the first game of this best-of-five series and it comes in playing with some solid momentum. The Mystics are coming off a pair of impressive wins in the first two postseason games against Dallas at home and New York on the road and that is a big edge heading into the series opener. Minnesota has not played since September 3 so while the rest can be considered good, the rust factor cannot be downplayed especially when laying close to double-digits. That last game for the Lynx resulted in a 14-point win over Washington but that was a meaningless game as the Mystics did not push their starters to big minutes since the game meant nothing. Minnesota swept the season series 3-0 but Washington as not at full strength in the first two games so none of the three games gives a true indication of how the Mystics match up with the Lynx. The Mystics start three players who are 6 feet 4 or taller and two of those forwards, Elena Delle Donne and Emma Meesseman, are perfectly comfortable taking defenders out to the perimeter and knocking down the outside shot. Lindsay Whalen's health and conditioning is a concern for Minnesota. While she has been back at practice since last Wednesday, she has not played in a game since breaking a bone in her left hand on August 3. 10* (685) Washington Mystics |
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09-12-17 | Tigers +378 v. Indians | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
The Indians are going for their 20th consecutive victory which would tie several teams including the 2002 Oakland A's which is the only truly modern era team on the list. During that Oakland streak, it had only one game where it was favored by -300 or more but now Cleveland has hit the rare -400 sector and pushing -500 in some spots. This after closing at -350 behind Carlos Carrasco last night. This is the linesmakers way of saying they have been destroyed by Cleveland bettors and they are trying to keep future Indians bets out. Fair enough. This streak will not last forever and this is a great opportunity to take advantage of incredible value. Corey Kluber has tossed four straight quality starts. The last three resulting in Indians wins and all three of those were on the road. His last loss came at home against Boston four starts back and on the season, Cleveland is just 8-5 in his 134 home starts. Matthew Boyd counters for the Tigers and he has been in a bit of a funk but his best start since August happened to come against the Indians where he allowed just one run in a 3-2 loss and in three starts against the Indians this season, he has a 2.41 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. While Cleveland will play hard to keep the run going, Detroit wants to be the team to stop the streak. 10* (971) Detroit Tigers |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Monday Enforcer. Not many people will be high on the Chargers this season but we are not one of those. They will have one of the worst home field advantages because of their stadium but talent-wise, they are right up there. We made a future play on Los Angeles winning the AFC West which is a wide-open division. The Chargers won only five games last season but were decimated by injuries (355 man-games lost, most in the NFL) but nine of their 11 losses were by just one possession so imagine if they can go a season without longterm major injuries. Denver is nothing special with a pedestrian offense including a weak offensive line and questions at quarterback. Last season, the Broncos ranked 27th total offense at 323.1 ypg, 21st in passing at 230.0 ypg, 27th in rushing at 92.8 ypg and 22nd in scoring with 20.8 ppg. Meanwhile, the defense is losing ground. DeMarcus Ware retired, Shane Ray will not be back until at least Week Eight, T.J. Ward was released and Shaq Barrett is still working his way back from an injured hip. These teams are much more equal now. The same two systems apply to the Chargers here. First, we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 36-8-2 (81.8 percent) since 2003 including 13-2 ATS (86.7 percent) since 2013. Second, we play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77.1 percent) since 2004 including 13-3 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2013. 10* (481) Los Angeles Chargers |
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09-11-17 | Saints +3 v. Vikings | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our Monday Star Attraction. Both Minnesota and New Orleans missed the playoffs last season and both are projected to make runs at the postseason this year. The Vikings made the playoff two years ago thanks to a big run at the end of the season but last year was a different story as after a 5-0 start, Minnesota closed the season by winning just three of its last 11 games. There are issues on offense, especially with the offensive line, so getting the running game going will be difficult and Sam Bradford cannot win a game on his own. The Saints are an improved team which will be out to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013-14. The offense took a hit with the loss of Brandin Cooks but they will be just fine. One major improvement from this team is the defense as the secondary is better with the drafting of Marshon Lattimore and the linebackers will be improved by the drafting of Alex Anzalone, signing A.J. Klein in free agency and hiring Mike Nolan to coach the group. Two excellent situations fall onto the Saints side. First, we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 36-8-2 (81.8 percent) since 2003 including 13-2 ATS (86.7 percent) since 2013. Second, we play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77.1 percent) since 2004 including 13-3 ATS (81.3 percent) since 2013. 10* (479) New Orleans Saints |
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09-10-17 | Jaguars +6 v. Texans | Top | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 116 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our Week One NFL Game of the Week. Week One of the NFL season can be the most difficult to handicap since we have no information on teams that are just getting their season started. However, the people making the lines are in the same boat and that is how we take advantage as this is the only week we are on a level playing field which can be used in our favor. Lines are set based on two factors, what happened last year and expectations for this year with the normal injuries, venue, weather, etc. being taken into consideration as well. We have systems in place that have been very profitable in the first week and the Jaguars/Texans game falls into one of those which we can call the regression perception system. Houston is again expected to make a run at the AFC South title thanks to its potent defense but the offense remains a huge concern going into the season coming off a 9-7 season. Jacksonville went 3-13 last season and is coming off a preseason that was widely regarded as horrible in all aspects. The Jaguars have a season win total of 6.5 games so things are expected to be better but the public is not buying it this week against Houston as the Texans are overvalued yet the public is making the Texans the second highest home consensus on the board. This is only part of the Jaguars value as the system in place backs it up. We play on road underdogs of less than a touchdown that finished last season under .500 and had eight or fewer wins than their opponent. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) since 2004 including 12-3 ATS (80 percent) since 2013. 10* (457) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-10-17 | Raiders v. Titans -1.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for out Week One Enforcer. The Raiders were one of the pleasant surprises last season as they won 12 games but were unable to make a playoff run after quarterback Derek Carr went down. It was a special season and many are picking the Raiders as a sleeper Super Bowl team but they are missing the fact that they won five games by a field goal or less and in overtime and eight games by one possession or less so things could have been a lot different. Oakland now has a healthy Carr back and the signing of Marshawn Lynch should help the running game but this is the classic example of a team that is ripe for regression and a lot of that is based on the number of close wins from last season. Tennessee is a trendy pick to win the AFC South following a 9-7 season from last year and just missing the playoffs. The Titans have missed the playoffs the last eight seasons but now have the team on both sides to make a move. This is a rematch from last season where Oakland came here in Week Three and won 17-10 but this is a different Tennessee team playing for revenge in what turned out to be a heated game. Marcus Mariota was in a funk, Rishard Matthews was still struggling to get comfortable in the offense, and what many people viewed as the team's top two options in the passing game in Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker did not play. Now, Eric Decker, a comfortable and reliable Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker, Taywan Taylor, and Corey Davis give Mariota multiple options. There is also a great situation the Titans fall into based on regression possibilities as we play against Week One road underdogs that won eight or more games last season and had a better record than their opponent. This situation is 35-10-3 ATS (77.8 percent) since 2004. 10* (464) Tennessee Titans |
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09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 116 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our Week One Wiseguy Wipeout. Atlanta enters a new season following the worst implosion in Super Bowl history as it blew a 28-3 lead late in the third quarter and eventually lost in overtime. Despite the close margin in the end, the Falcons were outgained by the Patriots by 202 yards so they were fortunate to be in that position to begin with. Many will be calling Atlanta to come out with a chip on its shoulder but these situations are tough to bounce back from despite the fact six months have passed and now we have a situation we have not seen before based on the historic collapse. One thing we do know is that teams coming off a Super Bowl loss have not fared well out of the gate. Super Bowl losers have been horrendous against the number in their first game the following season, going 3-17 ATS over the last 20 games. Now the Falcons are laying a touchdown on the road which is horrible situation to begin with. The Bears are coming off a 3-13 season and are projected for 5.5 wins this season so it looks to be another long season in Chicago. They posted their lowest win total in a non-strike year since the 1973 team went 3-11 and most losses since 1969 so not many will be backing this team. Offensively, Mike Glennon gets the call at quarterback and he a solid running game behind him led by Jordan Howard who finished second to Ezekiel Elliott with 1,313 yards rushing. For the Bears to keep things close here and throughout the season, the defense must play well and that is more than possible. The Bears believe they have the makings of a strong front seven if they stay healthy, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebackers Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd leading the way. Since 2001, home underdogs of seven or more points in Week One are 5-1 ATS. 10* (456) Chicago Bears |
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09-10-17 | Jets +9.5 v. Bills | Top | 12-21 | Win | 100 | 116 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our Week One Ultimate Underdog. This play goes along the same lines as the regression perception system but with a couple tweaks that makes it more of a public fade system. Week One of the NFL season can be the most difficult to handicap since we have no information on teams that are just getting their season started. However, the people making the lines are in the same boat and that is how we take advantage as this is the only week we are on a level playing field which can be used in our favor. Lines are set based on two factors, what happened last year and expectations for this year with the normal injuries, venue, weather, etc. being taken into consideration as well. The Jets are projected to win 3.5 games based on the Vegas number and there have been voices saying a winless season is not out of the question. It is clearly a rebuilding season for New York and will be an underdog in every game this season but we must consider what kind of underdog it is going to be based on the spot. Buffalo is projected to win three more games than the Jets but that could be aggressive as the Bills seem to be playing for the future as well by trading some of the better players and loading up on draft picks. At this stage, they cannot be laying a number this big to anyone and even more so with their top two quarterbacks still in concussion protocol early in the week. The situation in play here is we play on road underdogs that have missed the playoffs the last three years and are coming off a season where they won between three and eight games and won fewer games than their opponent. This situation is 35-8-2 (81.4 percent) since 2003 including 12-2 ATS (85.7 percent) since 2013. We see some crazy things in the opening week of the NFL season and a Jets win would be right up there. 10* (453) New York Jets |
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09-09-17 | Stanford v. USC -6 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 57 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Saturday Star Attraction. USC was a big letdown for us last week as it did not show up until late in the game to eventually pull away from Western Michigan. The Trojans were likely guilty of looking ahead to this big matchup with Stanford but as noted last week, prior to Stanford last year, the Trojans defeated Utah St. by 38 points and in 2015, they defeated Idaho by 50 points prior to facing the Cardinal. USC should have named the score last week but because of the closer than anticipated game, the Trojans are getting some excellent value in the number this week. Stanford was off last week after dominating Rice in Australia two weeks ago and that was not a game to get a good read on the Cardinal. They are expected to contend with Washington in the Pac 12 North and this is once again a very solid Stanford team despite the loss of Christian McCaffrey. The Cardinal have been a very strong road team but they have had their struggles against top level teams as they are 2-4 the last four years on the road against ranked teams and one of those took place right here. This has been a Stanford dominated series as the Cardinal have won seven of the last nine meetings and the two USC wins have come by just three points each so based on history, no one will be lining up behind the Trojans this week. That is more than fine as USC is coming back to its normal program following years of lowered scholarships and is finally geared up with the talent and depth to make a championship run. The Trojans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing with double-revenge as favorites and they get that revenge Saturday night. 10* (388) USC Trojans |
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09-09-17 | UNLV +7 v. Idaho | Top | 44-16 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the UNLV RUNNIN' REBELS for our NCAAF Game of the Week. UNLV is coming off the worst loss in college football history in line to the pointspread as it fell at home to Howard 43-40 as a 45-point favorite. The Rebels did not show up as they lost three fumbles and committed 13 penalties and those are two areas where the mental side of the game simply was not there and that changes this week. They have heard all week about how bad of a loss it was and because it was so early in the season, they know there is plenty of time to make up for it and we will see an all-out effort this week. Idaho is coming off a bowl win against Colorado St. last season which came out of nowhere as the Vandals were a combined 9-50 in their previous five years. They did return 14 starters and going back to last season, they have won six straight games following a rather unimpressive win over Sacramento St. last week. Idaho returns only five starters on each side of the ball this season and while the Vandals are playing with confidence, they catch UNLV at the wrong time. This is also a revenge game for UNLV which lost at home to Idaho last year in overtime despite winning the yardage battle 539-378. The Rebels were favored by 14.5 points in that game so we are seeing a three-touchdown swing in less than a year and that is too big of an adjustment for these two teams. National embarrassment has a funny way of providing a sudden burst of motivation and UNLV shows that off Saturday night. 10* (389) UNLV Runnin' Rebels |
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09-09-17 | Marshall v. NC State -24.5 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 43 m | Show |
This is a classic example of why looking at final scores can be meaningless when looking at future games and prices. NC State looks to bounce back from a loss against South Carolina as it fell at home by seven points in a game that it dominated. The Wolfpack outgained South Carolina 504-246 and had 17 more first downs but mistakes did them in. Not only did the Gamecocks return the opening kickoff for a touchdown, they also benefited from scoring drives of just 40 and 13 yards following NC State turnovers. The Wolfpack defense allowed just 22 yards over the final five drives on defense and they can absolutely dominate again this Saturday. Marshall won its season opener against Miami Ohio but it was the opposite of what happened with NC State. The Thundering Herd were outgained 429-267 but returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and also returned an interception for another score. The RedHawks controlled the time of possession and allowed just 15 first downs so it was a win by Marshall that was a fortunate as they come. After three straight double-digit win seasons, the Thundering Herd won just three games last year and lost all five road games by double digits. NC State has gone to three straight bowl games and with 17 returning starters, greater things are expected in 2017. That disappointing loss in the season opener is going to fuel the Wolfpack even more and with Furman on deck, they will be fully focused this week. Despite the loss last week, they have covered 11 of their last 14 non-conference games while Marshall is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win. 10* (368) NC State Wolfpack |
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09-09-17 | TCU -3 v. Arkansas | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 50 h 24 m | Show |
While Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. are the head of the Big XII class, do not sleep on TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off a dreadful 6-7 season and we say dreadful because it was their first losing season since 2004 so a big bounce back season can be expected in 2017. Three of the last four times TCU has finished with eight or fewer wins, it has won 11, 11 and 12 games and this team is loaded now. The Horned Frogs bring back 17 starters overall with 10 of those coming on offense including quarterback Kenny Hill and all other playmakers. Their top three rushers and top nine receivers are all back. Arkansas is coming off another average season under head coach Bret Bielema who is now just 26-26 in four-plus seasons following a season opening win over Florida A&M last week. 12 of those 26 wins have come against non-Power Five teams so there is some underachieving going on here in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks bring back a strong offensive line and Austin Allen is a solid quarterback but after that, there is not much on this team. They come in with one of the weakest defensive lines in the SEC and will get shredded against this TCU offense that is ranked No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 in running backs, receivers and offensive line in the Big XII. There is revenge on the table for the horned Frogs as well as they are off a loss in overtime last season despite outgaining Arkansas by 169 total yards. TCU is 12-4 on the road over the last three seasons while the Razorbacks have failed to cover six straight games following a win. 10* (363) TCU Horned Frogs |
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09-09-17 | Western Michigan v. Michigan State -7 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our Saturday Enforcer. Michigan St. overcame a slow start last week as it pulled away from Bowling Green in a game that it really dominated. The Spartans defense was the story as they did not allow a touchdown as the Falcons lone trot into the endzone came from a fumble return in the fourth quarter. They allowed only 212 total yards against a Falcons offense that averaged 407 ypg last season despite losing a ton from its record setting offense from 2015. Michigan St. is coming off its worst season ever under head coach Mark Dantonio and its first losing season since 2009. The three wins were the fewest since 1994 and this coming after a berth in the CFP in 2015 but all of this means we can buy low and that is the case here. We played against Western Michigan last week and give the Broncos credit as they went into USC and played the Trojans tough in a game that was not decided until late. USC was not showing its full arsenal early on with a game against Stanford on deck and that nearly came back to haunt the Trojans. Now Western Michigan has to regroup in a hurry and face another Power Five team which is a cause for concern. The Broncos were a special team last season as they opened 13-0 before losing to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl and take away the wins over Northwestern and Illinois and they are just 2-17 in their last 19 non-conference road games with those two wins both coming against Idaho, first in 2008 when the Vandals went 2-10 and then in 2014 when they went 1-10. 10* (310) Michigan St. Spartans |
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09-09-17 | Tulane +13.5 v. Navy | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 14 m | Show |
While a win over Grambling should not count for much, it was the first season opening win for Tulane since 2013 for a program that is heading in the right direction. The Green Wave finished with four wins last season which was more wins than in four of the previous five seasons so the first year under head coach Willie Fritz was a success. He led Georgia Southern to an 18-7 record in his two years there before coming to Tulane and he has amassed a 195-74-1 record in his head coaching career. He brought with him his option rushing attack and after a successful first year, things will only be better this time around. Taking over at quarterback this season is Kansas St. transfer Jonathan Banks who fits perfectly into this system and is coming off a great debut. Navy won last Friday in a game that had no rhythm due to storms and delays which hurt Florida Atlantic to get anything going. The Midshipmen now head back to Annapolis for their home opener and are again being asked to lay double-digits only this time against a team that matches up better which we saw last season. Tulane had the lead over Navy late in the fourth quarter but could not hold on as Navy scored the game winning touchdown with 2:57 left and the Green Wave could not pull off the upset. That was one of three losses for Tulane that came by a single possession so their season could have been even better. This is a program on the rise that has not had much go its way with only one bowl appearance since 2002 and with a game at Oklahoma on deck, getting out of here with a great effort is of utmost importance. 10* (347) Tulane Green Wave |
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09-09-17 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg -2 | Top | 28-48 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
We played on Saskatchewan last week as it snapped the Blue Bombers five-game winning streak and got some payback from its only home loss early in the season. Now that revenge goes the other way as Winnipeg will be out for payback in a quick turnaround as the Banjo Bowl sets up the third meeting Saturday afternoon. Besides Calgary, these are two of the hottest teams in the league as the Roughriders have now won three straight games and five of their last seven to move into sole possession of fourth place in the league. The issue has been winning on the road as they are just 1-3 and while the lone victory was against a very good Edmonton team, that game was handed to them by the Eskimos with a pair of interceptions that were returned for touchdowns as well as a blocked punt returned for a score. The last two road losses came against B.C. and Calgary where they were outgained by 198 and 143 total yards respectively. During their five-game winning streak, the Blue Bombers were averaging 36 ppg so last week was a poor effort on offense although the loss can be attributed to Winnipeg catching a very hot team at home. The Blue Bombers will have a final chance to redeem themselves and it is the final time the two teams will square off this regular season, with the implications being more than just saving face for the home team. Winnipeg has covered 12 of its last 14 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (654) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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09-08-17 | Ohio v. Purdue -3.5 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 35 h 57 m | Show |
While we will not go as far to say that Purdue is bound for a big season, we will say that the Boilermakers are heading in the right direction. Purdue has not been relevant since the days of Joe Tiller as it has been to just two bowl games since he retired in 2008. The hiring of Jeff Brohm looks to be a perfect fit here and one that will get the Boilermakers back on the map. They are coming off a solid effort last week against Louisville where they lost by a touchdown but were the victims of four turnovers and while they were outgained by 180 total yards, they have only two fewer first downs. Purdue now takes a step down in competition in its home opener which happens to come in front of a National TV audience. Ohio meanwhile has not had a losing season since 2008 and has been to a bowl game in seven of the eight years since then. The Bobcats are coming off a laugher in their season opener against Hampton as they rolled 59-0 but we can take little from that game based on the opposition. Ohio is expected to contend in the MAC once again this season but there is a big difference between the MAC and the Big Ten even if it is the lower echelon of the Big Ten. The Bobcats are just 2-10 against Power Five teams since 2007 and they are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Meanwhile, Purdue has won 13 consecutive home openers and it has covered nine of its last 13 games following a straight up loss. 10* (302) Purdue Boilermakers |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -8 | Top | 42-27 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
The Patriots closed last season by winning their last 10 games, covering the last eight games, including an improbable Super Bowl comeback over Atlanta where they trailed 28-3 before winning in overtime. New England is the favorite to win the Super Bowl once again this season at +385 as of four days before their season opener. Everyone has likely heard of the Super Bowl hangover but it does not pertain to the first week of the next season. Since the NFL began its current format for the Kickoff Opener with the winners of the previous Super Bowl playing host to the first game of the season, defending champions are 11-1 in those games (not counting Baltimore in 2013 since its game was moved to the road because of an Orioles scheduling conflict). The defending home team went 8-3-1 ATS. Going back further prior to the Thursday Kickoff Opener, defending Super Bowl Champions have gone 15-1 straight up and 11-4-1 ATS the last 16 years including cover wins the last three seasons. Kansas is coming off another successful season where it went 12-4, its second straight double-digit win campaign but it stumbled in the playoffs yet again, losing to the Steelers at home. This is a big number the Chiefs are getting here and you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find Kansas City getting a touchdown or more. The Chiefs won their last six road games last season but they are heading to an environment which will be tough to compete in and the Patriots have dominated in these situations. They are 13-3-3 ATS at home the last two seasons while going 18-7-2 against conference opponents over that same stretch. 10* (452) New England Patriots |
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09-07-17 | Indians v. White Sox +239 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The Indians picked up their 14th straight win last night as they broke open a 1-0 game with three runs in the eighth inning and rode Carlos Carrasco who was an out away from a complete game shutout. They are now a comfortable 11 games ahead of the Twins in the American League Central and are chasing the Astros for the best record in the American League as they sit three games back. The White Sox had won two straight games and 11 of their last 17 home games before Cleveland came to town and will be out to salvage the series finale where they have won seven of their last nine Game Four contests. Corey Kluber gets the ball for Cleveland and he has surpassed Chris Sale as the American League Cy Young favorite but it is still close. He has tossed three straight quality starts and while he has been successful on the road, he has not been nearly as dominant as four of his 11 starts have been non-quality outings including his last start here in Chicago in July. It took Carlos Rodon some time to settle in after coming back from the DL in June but he has been on a roll. He has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts where he has posted a 3.00 ERA and in his short career against Cleveland, he has a 2.34 ERA where eight of nine starts have been quality performances. The White Sox are 7-3 in his last 10 home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (914) Chicago White Sox |
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09-06-17 | Seattle Storm +4.5 v. Phoenix Mercury | Top | 69-79 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The single elimination playoffs begin on Wednesday and the second game has Seattle travelling to Phoenix to take on the Mercury. It was an up and down season for both teams which finished the regular season just three games apart from each other. Seattle locked down the No. 8 seed last Friday when both Chicago and Atlanta lost and while this was not the seeding they were hoping for coming into the season, the Storm can use the Phoenix success from a year ago when it was the No. 8 seed and won two road games to get to the Semifinals before losing to Minnesota. While Seattle struggled on the road this season, they are not at a usual disadvantage here. The Mercury will not have a typical home-court advantage on Wednesday as they will be playing at Arizona State University's Wells Fargo Arena, not their own home court, Talking Stick Resort Arena. According to the team, the move is happening to make room for Marvel Universe Live! setup. The Storm won just two road games against playoff teams but one of those came in Phoenix and while they lost both home games against the Mercury, both were very close and we can expect another close game with these two teams that match up well together, giving each the opportunity to advance. 10* (679) Seattle Storm |
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09-05-17 | Cardinals v. Padres +146 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
We lost with the Padres yesterday as they ran into a buzzsaw in Carlos Martinez as he tossed a three-hit, complete game shutout. We will back them again tonight as they are now 5-3 on this current homestand with all three of the losses being shutouts but the five wins have resulted in 6.0 rpg. San Diego is 38-33 at home while going back, they are 23-10 in their last 33 home games against teams with a losing road record. St. Louis moved to within five games of the Cubs in the National League Central and remains three games out of the final Wild Card spot. Despite the win on Monday, St. Louis is still three games under .500 on the road and it is 14-28 in its last 42 road games against teams with a winning home record. Michael Wacha gets the ball for the Cardinals and while Martinez has been inconsistent, Wacha has been in a much worse place. He has a 7.36 ERA over his last four starts and he has struggled on the road this season with a 5.16 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 11 starts. The Cardinals are 2-8 in his last 10 starts following a quality outing in his last start. San Diego turns to Travis Wood and the fact that he is pitching once again at Petco Park is big. He has made seven starts with the Padres and the venue has made all the difference as he has an 8.40 ERA in three road starts while posting a 1.61 ERA in four home starts. San Diego has won all four of those games and St. Louis is hitting just .197 over its last 10 games. 10* (914) San Diego Padres |
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09-04-17 | Astros v. Mariners +135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
The Astros are coming off an emotional home series against the Mets as they took all three games in their first series back home since the devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey. They are now back on the road where they have to experience a huge letdown following the brief trip back to Houston. The Astros are trying to hold off Cleveland for the best record in the American League but we are going to fade them here in a classic overpriced spot. The Mariners are coming off a home sweep of Oakland to extend their home winning streak to five games and move back over .500 overall. Seattle is right in the Wild Card mix in the American League as it is 2.5 games behind Minnesota but also has to deal with Baltimore and Los Angeles that are both a game in front. The Mariners have won seven of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above ..600. they hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez who has been very solid since entering the starting rotation as he has a 3.62 ERA in six starts and five of those were on the road. He did not allow a single earned run in his lone home start against the angels and is riding a four-game quality outing streak. Dallas Keuchel is coming off a poor outing against Texas and he has not been himself since coming back from the DL in July. He as posted a 5.35 ERA in seven starts with only two of those being quality performances. 10* (974) Seattle Mariners |
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09-04-17 | Cardinals v. Padres +149 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
St. Louis took three of four at San Francisco including the Sunday finale as Luke Weaver continues his strong rookie start as he tossed another gem while the offense was able to get to Madison Bumgarner for five runs in six innings including three home runs. The Cardinals are now three games behind Colorado, which has lost four straight games, for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. St. Louis is still four games under .500 on the road and it is 13-28 in its last 41 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Padres have gotten off to a very impressive start to this homestand as they are 5-2 including winning three of four against the Dodgers over the weekend. San Diego is 38-32 at home while going back, the 23-9 in their last 32 home games against teams with a losing road record. They send Luis Perdomo to the hill and he has been on a roll with three straight quality outings including one against the Cardinals two starts back. The Padres are 5-1 in his last six starts following a quality outing in his last start. St. Louis counters with Carlos Martinez who is having a good but not great season and he has been inconsistent on the road with a 3.84 ERA with the Cardinals going just 5-9 in his 14 road starts. San Diego is playing with confidence and there is no reason to believe it does not continue here in this series opener. 10* (960) San Diego Padres |
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09-04-17 | Edmonton +10.5 v. Calgary | Top | 18-39 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
After being the lone undefeated team in the CFL at 7-2, Edmonton had hit a bit of a skid as it has dropped two straight games to fall a half-game behind Calgary in the West Division. Last week, the Eskimos were defeated by 23 points against Saskatchewan but it was an anomaly as they were outgained by just 10 total yards but had a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown while having two passes picked off that were also returned for touchdowns. Edmonton has fallen to No. 7 in scoring defense but it is skewed by last week and take away those three touchdowns and it moves into the No. 3 spot. Both teams boast stingy pass defenses as the Stampeders are first in the CFL, allowing 261.6 ypg while the Eskimos are allowing the second fewest at 268.9 ypg. Calgary has won five straight games and are playing at its typical high level thus we are catching a line that is inflated because of the recent results. This is a classic Labour Day rivalry and while Calgary has won the last five meetings, four of those last five were decided in the final three minutes of the game. Edmonton has two excellent situations on its side. First, we play on divisional road underdogs that are coming off a home loss by seven or more points as favorites. This situation is 24-9 ATS (72.7 percent) L33. Also, we play on road teams coming off a loss as home favorites where they committed four or more turnovers. This situation is 18-1 ATS (94.7 percent) L19. 10* (355) Edmonton Eskimos |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA -3 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 27 m | Show |
UCLA came into last season as a top 15 teams but lost its season opener in overtime, lost its star quarterback halfway through the season and lost six of its last seven games to post its first losing season since 2011. The loss of quarterback Josh Rosen was a big reason for the second half collapse by the Bruins as those were definitely intertwined but partly to fault is head coach Jim mora who failed to make adjustments on offense and finds himself squarely on the hot seat entering 2017. UCLA will be back to contend in the Pac 12 North as it brings nine starters back on offense including Rosen who is back to full health. Half of their losses last season came by one possession which gives the Bruins value heading into this season and the line dictates that. That opening loss from last season came against Texas A&M despite outgaining the Aggies so there is revenge on the table. Another coach in the hot seat is Kevin Sumlin who has his teams highly ranked at some point in the season only to lose crucial games and implode late to fall out of the rankings altogether. The Aggies have finished 8-5 each of the last three seasons which would be good for some programs but there has been too much inconsistency where opportunities have been there only to be missed. Texas A&M brings back only 12 starters this season and the quarterback situation is a mess as it saw two transfers and it is still undecided if senior Jake Hubenak, redshirt freshman Nick Starkel or true freshman Kellen Mond will be making their first ever road start. Part of this is Sumlin not giving away info but the other part is that there is no clear-cut choice. 10* (212) UCLA Bruins |
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09-03-17 | A's +140 v. Mariners | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Seattle has won the first two games of this series and goes for the sweep today against Oakland. The Mariners came back from a 6-2 deficit on Saturday to grab a 7-6 victory as both wins have come by one run each. Oakland has dropped five straight on this roadtrip which comes to an end today. They are tied for the fourth most one-run losses in the American League as the fortunes have not gone their way in close games. Oakland has won seven straight Sunday games which is a meaningless stat but it does show they have performed well in day games. Daniel Gossett gets the ball for the A's and he has had an up and down season through 12 starts but he has shown some good things of late. He posted a 6.23 ERA through his first six starts but he has put up four quality outings over his last six starts including three of four on the road. Going back, the Mariners are 6-13 in their last 19 home games against right-handed starters. Seattle counters with Andrew Albers who has gone five innings in each of his first three starts and he has been fortunate to have blown up. He has allowed 23 hits in those games which gives him a horrible 1.80 WHIP so the fact his ERA is only 4.20 is surprising. Oakland is hitting .276 in its last 10 games against left-handed pitching. 10* (927) Oakland A's |
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09-03-17 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan -2.5 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 35 m | Show |
Saskatchewan started the season 1-3 but has won three of its last four games including two in a row to make it to .500 so get into the playoff mix. The Roughriders are coming off an impressive win at Edmonton last week which was their first win of the season on the road and they return home looking to improve upon their 3-1 record here. The lone defeat came against Winnipeg in the second game of the season so revenge is in play on Sunday as Saskatchewan lost that game by just three points. Winnipeg is one of the hottest teams in the league as it has won five straight games after a 2-2 start. The Blue Bombers pulled off an upset at home against Edmonton two weeks ago which handed the Eskimos their first loss of the season and while the streak includes three consecutive road wins, all of those were against the much weaker East Division. Overall, they are 5-0 against the East which has helped inflate the record. The Roughriders have only played three games against the East and while they are 2-1, the lone defeat came by a point at Montreal in a game they won the yardage battle by 59 total yards. They can take advantage of a Winnipeg defense that is ranked No. 8 in the CFL, ahead of only 0-8 Hamilton. Saskatchewan falls into a great revenge situation as we play on divisional home favorites or underdogs of fewer than three points that have a worse record than their opponent and playing with same season revenge. This situation is 10-1 ATS which includes 10 outright wins and one tie over the last 11 occurrences. 10* (354) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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09-03-17 | New York Liberty -2.5 v. Dallas Wings | Top | 82-81 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
This is the final day of the WNBA regular season and all eight postseason spots have been filled as Atlanta, Chicago, Indiana and San Antonio are all officially eliminated. The only remaining things are seedings as No. 1 through No. 6 are still up for grabs. New York has already gained a second round home game no matter what happens today and it still has a chance at the No. 3 seed if it wins or if it loses and Connecticut loses as well. The Liberty and Sun split their season series so should they finish tied, the Liberty win the second tiebreaker as they have a better record than the Sun against teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better. While it does not seem important since it already has a home playoff game locked down, New York will be after the No. 3 seed to avoid Minnesota in the best-of-five Semifinals. Dallas cannot move up or down as it has the No. 7 seed sewn up and will either travel to Washington or Phoenix but which team it plays in out of its hands as it comes down to the other two teams and their results today. New York is going for more than just the No. 3 seed however as it will be very motivated to win. The Liberty have won nine straight games and do want to keep the momentum going into the playoffs while a victory will match the franchise record for consecutive victories set back in 2010. 10* (667) New York Liberty |
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09-02-17 | Western Michigan v. USC -26 | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 48 m | Show |
This is the one week that we can take advantage of betting big favorites, something we typically do not do later in the season when lines become a lot sharper. This is one of those games where the home team can name the score and we expect that to happen. USC comes into the season as a legit National Championship contender for the first time in a while after a great end to last season. The Trojans were blown out in their season opener against Alabama last year and then opened 0-2 in the Pac 12 before going on to win their final nine games of the season including a Rose Bowl win against Penn St. they bring back a slew of talent including Heisman hopeful quarterback Sam Darnold who narrowly lost his first game as a starter against Utah but then won the next nine starts, only two of those victories coming by single-digits. It may be worrisome that USC has Stanford on deck but that is a non-issue. Prior to Stanford last year, the Trojans defeated Utah St. by 38 points and in 2015, they defeated Idaho by 50 points prior to facing the Cardinal. Western Michigan is coming off a season for the ages as the Broncos went 12-0 during the regular season, defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship but fell to Wisconsin by eight points in the Cotton Bowl. It was a season that cannot be duplicated especially knowing that head coach P.J. Fleck is gone and that the Broncos have to replace seven starters on offense including their quarterback as well as their top three receivers. This is a big number to be laying but it is this big for a reason and should be even bigger but the memory of what Western Michigan did last season is keeping it manageable. 10* (182) USC Trojans |
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09-02-17 | Temple v. Notre Dame -18 | Top | 16-49 | Win | 100 | 75 h 42 m | Show |
Notre Dame is another big-name program that looks to bounce back following a disappointing 4-8 season. The Irish are favored by a significant amount in their opener but with them expected to be one of them most improved teams in the nation, this line would be a lot higher a month from now as the struggles from last season are playing a part in the number. Those eight losses are being taken into consideration but what is not being considered is the fact that of those eight losses, seven came by one possession including four by a field goal or less. While it was not an experienced team last season, Notre Dame returns 15 starters and in the mix are new coordinators. Defensively, the Irish were okay and now they have a new coordinator in Mike Elko who turned Wake Forest around. Chip Long takes over the offense that has to replace the quarterback but brings back the top rusher, receiver and four players along the huge offensive line. Temple was a bookies nightmare last year as after a loss against Army in the season opener, the Owls ran off 12 consecutive spread victories before losing to Wake Forest in the Military Bowl. Temple lost 12 starters from last season, the majority on a stout defense that has brought back 8, 10 and 6 starters the last three seasons but brings back just four in 2017. Offensively, the receiving corps returns intact but the Owls have to break in a new quarterback and also lost their top running back. Most important, head coach Matt Rhule left for Baylor and Temple also has to replace both coordinators as well and their replacements are not nearly as strong as those for Notre Dame. This is a big game for Notre Dame to get the season going in the right direction in front of the home crowd before welcoming Georgia next week. 10* (188) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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09-02-17 | Kent State +39.5 v. Clemson | Top | 3-56 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 23 m | Show |
The reigning National Champions kick off on Saturday in the early slate of games and while the game looks easy on paper, the situation is not a good one to open. Clemson plays its first game with the title trophy so every opponent is going to be giving its all in trying to pull off a victory. The Tigers are again going to be a solid team as they come in ranked No. 5 in the AP Preseason poll but the start of the season could be one that takes time for this team to come together. They have to replace quarterback Deshaun Watson, leading rusher Wayne Gallman and their top two receivers so the offense will be a work in progress. This is the perfect opponent to try and iron out some of the wrinkles and play within its means and not show too much. This is because the Tigers host Auburn next week, a team they narrowly escaped last season with a six-point win. That was one of seven wins by a touchdown or less and that is something to go against the following season. Kent St. has won just eight games the last three years but all signs point to improvement this season. The Golden Flashes bring back 13 starters from a team that lost four games by four points or less and held its own against Penn St. in the season opener. The offense struggled last season but will be better in 2017 with more experience and it does not have to do much here to cover this number. Clemson has covered just once in five games when favored by five or more touchdowns under head coach Dabo Swinney including a six-point win against Troy as a 35-point chalk which came right after that Auburn game. 10* (159) Kent St. Golden Flashes |
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09-02-17 | Maryland v. Texas -18.5 | Top | 51-41 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 56 m | Show |
As mentioned in a different analysis, playing big favorites in the first week of the season can be very advantageous as we can get some soft numbers that could feasibly be much higher later in the season should things pan out the way as we are predicting. Texas has been an average program since 2009 when it lost to Alabama in the BSC Championship as it has gone 46-42 over the last seven seasons and has not reached double-digit win over this span. The Longhorns started declining with Mack Brown and the Charlie Strong experiment lasted just three seasons. In comes Tom Herman who looks to be an ideal fit to turn Texas back into a national power and while it likely may not happen this year, we can expect a strong start from Texas. Herman has 17 returning starters and the Longhorns bring back the fifth most experienced team in the country so most everyone is back in what will be a very hungry team to forget the debacle from the end of last season. Texas opens at home for the first two weeks before heading to USC to face the Trojans so these first two weeks are important for momentum and confidence. Maryland was a pleasant surprise last season as it won six games after winning just three games in 2015 but we are not so sure the improvement was justified. Only one of the Terrapins six regular season losses was close and they defeated some bad teams along the way to become bowl eligible. Quarterback Tyrell Pigrome won the starting job over blue chip recruit Kasim Hill and North Carolina transfer Caleb Henderson which was a surprise so the offense could struggle early on. Texas needs it supporters to believe and that is not just done with a win but a blowout win. 10* (186) Texas Longhorns |
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09-01-17 | Connecticut Sun v. Phoenix Mercury -1 | Top | 66-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
The final weekend of the WNBA regular season has a ton of scenarios for playoff implications and while there is just one playoff spot up for grabs, seedings are not yet determined. Phoenix is in the bottom half of the playoff standings currently sitting in the No. 6 spot which is the lowest it can be to guarantee a home playoff game in the first round. The Mercury can fall to No. 7 if they lose here and lose on Sunday and while the latter is unlikely because they play Atlanta, a chance should not be taken. The Mercury are the No. 5 seed if they finish tied or ahead of the Mystics which would mean they would also be tied with the Wings but they own the head-to- over Dallas. Connecticut locked up a first round bye with its win over Washington on Tuesday and there is not a bunch to play for now as there is no scenario where Connecticut can fall further than fourth or rise higher that the third seed. The Mercury have extra incentive as they will be out to avenge a 94-66 loss at Connecticut on August 20 and they get their revenge tonight. 10* (662) Phoenix Mercury |
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09-01-17 | Navy v. Florida Atlantic +10 | Top | 42-19 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 17 m | Show |
Navy did not finish the season well last year as it lost its last three games, including a loss against Army which snapped a 14-game winning streak against the Black Knights. The Midshipmen come into this season with a few question marks at some key positions namely offensive line and running back. They lost four of their top five rushers and they must replace three of their five already undersized offensive linemen. The Navy flexbone attack is ground-based and requires defenders to play disciplined, assignment football in a way that will not be as necessary against spread offenses. Luckily for Florida Atlantic, the Owls have extra time to prepare. Does that make a difference? You bet it does. Under head coach Ken Niumatalolo is 5-4 in season openers with four of those wins coming against Towson, Delaware, Colgate and Fordham, all from the FCS so FBS teams are 2-1 in those games. There is a lot of buzz at Florida Atlantic with the hiring of Lane Kiffin as the new head coach and while he will help immensely with recruiting, the bigger hire could be offensive coordinator Kendal Briles who is in place to turn around an inconsistent offense. There is still a question of who is going to start at quarterback but running backs Devin Singletary, Buddy Howell and Kerrith White were six yards short of rushing for two thousand yards combined last season, along with 26 touchdowns. Defensively, the line has been great during the spring and the linebackers that were hurt in the spring and early fall are back and will contribute in stopping the Navy ground attack. Overall, the Owls are the most experienced team in the country with 96.2 percent of their yards and 88 percent of their lettermen back for 2017. 10* (146) Florida Atlantic Owls |
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08-31-17 | Ohio State v. Indiana +21 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 11 m | Show |
This is a huge game for Indiana and the coaching staff is not downplaying it as they are calling it the biggest opening game in the history of Indiana football. That means little when it comes down to the actual playing of the game but the Hoosiers will possess a significant home field advantage. They are coming off back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1990-91and they are projected to make it three in a row. This is a very talented team with 15 starters returning and they can give Ohio St. some troubles. Indiana quarterback Richard Lagow has stepped up as a leader during the offseason and he spent a lot of time studying how he can improve his decision-making to cut down on turnovers. He will be throwing to a wide receiver group that includes Simmie Cobbs, Nick Westbrook and Donavan Hale along with tight end Ian Thomas. This part of the offense is important as they will be going against a very inexperienced secondary. Defensively, Indiana has nine starters back from a team that improved from allowing 37.6 ppg in 2015 to 27.2 ppg in 2016 so they should be even better. Former head coach Kevin Wilson is the new offensive coordinator so the Hoosiers will have an edge in knowing the tendencies that will be coming their way even though that can go both ways. Limiting turnovers is stating the obvious but if Indiana wants to sniff an upset, the turnover battle must be won. The Hoosiers have played Ohio St. very tough over the last few years and most of those were inferior teams than the 2017 edition. While a close game can be expected, we take advantage of a very overpriced line that is based on the Ohio St. name and its CFP hopes for the upcoming season. 10* (134) Indiana Hoosiers |
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08-31-17 | White Sox +145 v. Twins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Minnesota has won the first two games of this series as it remains seven games behind the red-hot Indians but it also remains in the second Wild Card spot in the American League, one game ahead of the Angels and 1.5-games ahead of the Orioles. The Twins offense has been crushing the ball by averaging 8.3 rpg over their last four games but they will face a test today. The White Sox have dropped two straight games but they have been playing some respectable baseball going back as they have gone 11-11 over their last 22 games which is average for most teams but as big underdogs most every time out, Chicago has won 6.3 units over that stretch. The White Sox send Miguel Gonzalez to the hill and he has been pitching great, posting four straight quality outings while putting up a 1.29 ERA over that stretch. He has faced the Tigers, Rangers, Dodgers and Astros in those games which are four of the top scoring offenses in baseball so facing the Twins is a non-issue. Going back further, seven of his last eight starts have been quality performances with the lone exception being a game at Fenway Park. Minnesota turns to Bartolo Colon who has been surprisingly effective since coming to the Twins, but for less than half the time. Only three of his eight starts have been quality games and he brings in a 5.62 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four home starts, none of which reached quality status. 10* (963) Chicago White Sox |
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08-30-17 | Pirates +186 v. Cubs | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
The Pittsburgh playoff hopes are fading fast after dropping the first two games of this three-game series. The Pirates have failed to get any big winning streaks together but they have won three straight games following consecutive losses and will be out for a 3-3 split during this roadtrip before heading back home for seven games. Chicago has a 3.5-game lead in the National League Central as the second half turnaround continues but it has mostly been road dominated as the Cubs are just 14-12 over their last 26 home games with 10 of those 12 losses coming at -150 or higher. Jose Quintana takes the hill for Chicago and since coming over from the White Sox, he has been average with a 4.50 ERA in eight starts. Only two of his last five starts have been quality outings and he went only six innings in both of those as his ERA is 6.00 over that five-game stretch. Ivan Nova counters for the Pirates and his season has been much more consistent and while he allowed five earned runs in his last start, we can expect a bounce back. He has allowed four earned runs or more seven other times and bounced back in six of those with a quality outing in his next start. He has faced Chicago twice this season, both resulting in quality performances and victories for the Pirates. 10* (909) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-29-17 | A's +145 v. Angels | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
We lost with Oakland last night as the offense got handcuffed for the first time in a while as had averaged 6.4 rpg in its previous five games. As mentioned yesterday, the A's have not been very good on the road this season but have won six of their last 12 games on the highway and like they did against the Rangers, they will be out to play spoiler against Los Angeles. The Angels did win last night but it was due to a solid pitching performance and not the offense which has struggled for the most part during this homestand. They have scored three runs or less in half of their games on the homestand and putting together winning streaks has been an issue of late as they are 1-5 in their last six games following a win. Chris Smith gets the ball for Oakland and after posting three quality outings in his first three big league starts, he has been average in his last four starts but they have not been horrible. This is his first career start against the Angels which is a significant edge. Loa Angeles hands the ball to Troy Scribner who is making his fourth career start and the others have been good although he has not gone past five innings in any of those. One of those came against Oakland early in the month where he allowed five runs, two earned, in just four innings and now the A's get a second look which is an advantage. 10* (977) Oakland A's |
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08-29-17 | Connecticut Sun v. Washington Mystics -1 | Top | 86-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
Connecticut and Washington square off in a rescheduled game from July 28 that was postponed due to a leaky rook at the Verizon Center. The Mystics were in the mix for a possible top three seed in the upcoming WNBA Playoffs but they have dropped four of their last five games making this game essential. Washington is 2.5 games behind New York for the No. 4 seed which comes with a bye into the second round. They will need to win out and get help but the Mystics are still mathematically alive for that spot. Connecticut has been on a great roll to get into the top spot in the Eastern Conference and the current No. 3 seed. The Sun cannot get into the top two spots but feasibly could fall into the No. 5 spot so this is a big game as well. The schedule has been very much in their favor a they have played at home in nine of their last 10 games and while the lone road game resulted in a win, it came against 12-20 Atlanta. Going back, Connecticut has not won a road game against a team with a winning record since June 23 and have just two wins on the season against winning teams on the highway. Washington has been great this season in this range as it is 11-3 ATS when favored by seven or fewer points. 10* (630) Washington Mystics |
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08-29-17 | Mets +138 v. Reds | Top | 4-14 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
This is an interesting line between two teams with very similar backgrounds. The Reds and Mets have long since packed it in for the season and these are the types of games we can take advantage of with neither team having much to play for although the line is saying something else. Cincinnati is 2-4 on this current homestand and while the schedule dictates the moneylines, it has not been favored this high since June 3rd when it was a -169 favorite to the Braves and lost. The Reds are 12-41 in their last 53 after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The Mets are coming off a respectable 2-2 series split at Washington and while they have not been a great road team this season, they are 9-2 in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record. Pitching matchups can also greatly affect lines but that should not be the case here. Chris Flexen gets the ball for the Mets and after a pair of bad outings to open his Major League career, he has been solid over his last four starts as he has allowed three runs or less in each of those while posting his first quality outing last time out. Sal Romano has been having a very similar type of season but he has been more inconsistent with his 10 starts. He is coming off a pair of quality games which could have some play with the number but all-in-all, this is a very even matchup that should be priced more like it. 10* (955) New York Mets |
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08-28-17 | A's +155 v. Angels | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Oakland is coming off a short weekend homestand where it swept the Rangers and hits the road for a six-game roadtrip starting tonight in Los Angeles. The A's have not been very good on the road this season but have won six of their last 11 games on the highway and like they did against the Rangers, they will be out to play spoiler against Los Angeles. The Angels have had a horrible opening to this homestand as they have gone 2-5 as the offense has stalled. Luckily for the Angels, no team is running away with the Wild Card as the top six teams have gone either 6-4 or 4-6 over their last 10 games so they are still in the mix but overpriced here. Los Angeles has lost its last four series openers. Andrew Heaney is looking to finally put together a good start after back-to-back poor outings following his 16-month layoff. He has allowed nine runs over 10 innings and while he faces an average offense, Oakland has been bashing lefty pitching to the tune of a .282 average over its last 10 games. Daniel Gossett is back with the team after a stint in the Minors and his first start back against Texas was not great but it was not horrible. Five of 11 starts have been quality outings and he has allowed four runs or less in nine of those 11 games. 10* (917) Oakland A's |
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08-28-17 | Braves +146 v. Phillies | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The Braves won just three of nine games on its current homestand but the rebuild that started the season has exceeded expectations without question. After winning 68 games last season, Atlanta has already won 57 games this season and it is in the top half of the league in profits. They were shut out yesterday and the Braves are 6-2 in their last eight games following a loss and they are 6-1 this season following a game where they were shutout. The Phillies are coming off a series win against the Cubs over the weekend but have gone just 3-4 on the homestand as they are now 48-81 which is the worst record in baseball. Going back, the Phillies are 2-9 in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Aaron Nola has put together a solid season and he has put together some big strikeout numbers but he is coming off a pair of bad outings and fatigue could be settling in. He tossed 111 innings in 20 starts last season and is up to 130.2 innings in 21 starts this year. He struggled down the stretch last season, posting a 9.82 ERA over his last eight starts and could be on a similar path. Lucas Sims is coming off his best outing in five starts and can keep it going against a Phillies offense that has gone 1-7 in their last eight home games against right-handed starter. 10* (901) Atlanta Braves |
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08-27-17 | 49ers v. Vikings -5 | Top | 31-32 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
We are coming off a tough loss last night with the Giants as they imploded in the second half, allowing the Jets to score 28 points and nearly pull off the miracle comeback. That is the risk you sometimes take in the preseason when the backups enter the game but Saturday was a complete anomaly based on the size of the comeback. We hope not to have that issue tonight as we are backing another team in a very similar situation with a very similar line. The Vikings have not looked very good on offense as they have scored only 30 points so they want to use this game as a trigger to get things moving in the right direction. the good news is that for the first time this preseason, the Vikings offense is expected to be near full strength. They started to find a groove last week on the opening series in Seattle, before an 11-play, 76-yard drive was stalled by two red-zone penalties. The 49ers have the daunting task of converting the defense from the 3-4 scheme that they have run the better part of the last decade to a 4-3 and anyone who has seen a transformation from a 4-3 to a 3-4 realizes that players that are good fits in one system are not necessarily a good fit in another. San Francisco is overhauling its offense as well and it will have some issues tonight against a stiff Minnesota defense that needs to show more consistency as well. The Vikings lost a rare game in Seattle last week as Mike Zimmer dropped to 13-2 straight up and 12-3 against the number since taking over as Vikings head coach. He will be out to get it back here playing in front of the home crowd for the first time this season. 10* (282) Minnesota Vikings |
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08-27-17 | Minnesota Lynx v. LA Sparks -2.5 | Top | 67-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Los Angeles has a great opportunity to pull within a half-game of Minnesota in the Western Conference with just a handful of games remaining in the regular season. The Sparks have won four straight games and this is the first of three straight home games to conclude the season. They have split the first two games with Minnesota and a win here gives them the head-to-head tiebreaker which could go a long way in deciding home court advantage late in the playoffs. Los Angeles has lost just once at home this season. Minnesota has been playing very inconsistent as it has gone just 4-4 over its last eight games and three of those wins have come against San Antonio, Indiana and Atlanta which are the three worst teams in the WNBA. This is obviously still a very solid team but the loss of Lindsay Whalen has proven to be very big as there has not been much consistency on offense especially. The Lynx could put the Western Conference away with a win here but the situation and venue calls for Los Angeles to make the final week a very interesting one. 10* (628) Los Angeles Sparks |
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08-27-17 | Giants +178 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
The end of the season cannot come quick enough for the Giants as they are 27 games under .500 after coming into the season as legitimate World Series contenders. They opened the season 6-13, Madison Bumgarner suffered an injury that would keep him out nearly three months and that was the beginning of the end. They have dropped the first two games of this series by one run and their 20 one-run losses are seventh most in baseball. Arizona remains a game and a half ahead of Colorado for the top Wild Card spot in the National League as it has won three straight games but comes into today in a non-ideal spot as the Diamondbacks have lost six straight Game Three series enders. Patrick Corbin has had a great turnaround to his season as he has tossed five straight quality starts and has posted a 2.84 in eight starts since the all-Star Break. Still, the Diamondbacks are 5-17 in his last 22 starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. The Giants counter with Chris Stratton who has been very steady since re-entering the rotation as he has a 1.02 ERA in three starts, all resulting in Giants wins and all three coming against playoff contending teams including one against Arizona. While the records are 20.5 games different, the Giants are still talented and are out to play spoiler and avoid the sweep. 10* (963) San Francisco Giants |
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08-27-17 | Mariners +178 v. Yankees | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Seattle and New York have split the first two games of this series with the Mariners winning Game One and the Yankees bouncing back yesterday take a 3.5-game lead in the American League Wild Card race but Seattle remains just a half-game out from the second spot. Seattle has been playing very well as it is 7-3 over its last 10 games and going back, the Mariners have been exceptional on the road with a 19-8 record over their last 27 games on the highway. New York has been very average since the end of July and seems to be overpriced yet again today. The Yankees are 10-25 in their last 35 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. As mentioned in the past, these lines show how much starting pitching can dictate the numbers but anything can happen after that pertaining to bullpens, defense, etc. so this is where the value takes precedence over one particular matchup. Masahiro Tanaka gets the ball for the Yankees and he is the reason for this overinflated number. He has been very inconsistent as he has not been able to put any solid run together and the Yankees are 1-5 in his last 6 starts against teams with a winning record. Seattle turns to Andrew Albers who is making his third start since being called up and he has looked good thus far with a 3.60 ERA. The Yankees are hitting just .235 against lefties including .230 at home. 10* (965) Seattle Mariners |
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08-26-17 | Brewers +162 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-0 | Win | 162 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The Dodgers continued their torrid run last night by winning the series opener 3-1 as they allowed just one hit, a home run allowed by Kenta Maeda in the second inning and that was it. The domination at home continues as Los Angeles is 52-14 including a 43-9 record over its last 52 games. The Dodgers are chasing history as they became the fourth fastest team to reach 90 wins and they are going to be a publicly bet team for the rest of the season no matter the price. Milwaukee remains three games behind the Cubs in the National League Central as Chicago also lost last night. The Brewers are 3.5 games out of the National League Wild Card and while most games against Los Angeles may not be considered winnable, this one is. Zach Davies opened the season by allowing 11 runs in his first two starts but he has posted a 3.66 ERA since then over 24 starts. He has been at his best on the road where he is 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and this includes five straight outings where he has not allowed a single earned run. The Dodgers hand the ball to Ross Stripling who is making a spot start in place of Alex Wood and he is on a short leash of four innings or 55 pitches. 10* (913) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-26-17 | Royals +144 v. Indians | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
While the season is not yet over for Kansas City, it continues to be stuck on an inconsistent run where it has fallen seven games behind the Indians in the American League Central. The Royals are still well within range in the Wild Card race as they are just 1.5 games behind the Twins but also trail the Mariners and are tied with the Angels making each game important at this point. The Indians have won two straight games but have been mediocre at home with a 4-5 record over their last nine games at Progressive Field. Jason Hammel got off to a rough start to the season with a 6.18 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his first 10 starts but it has been a significant turnaround since then as he has put up a 3.93 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his last 15 starts where he has allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of those with 69 percent of those being quality outings. Hammel has a 3.37 ERA in three starts against Cleveland this year, all quality performances. Cleveland counters with Mike Clevinger who has been just the opposite. After posting a 2.73 ERA through his first 13 games, he has put up a 7.66 ERA in his last six games as fatigue seems to be settling in. The Royals are 15-4 in their last 19 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 10* (925) Kansas City Royals |
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08-26-17 | Jets v. Giants -4.5 | Top | 31-32 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
It is no secret that the Jets are going to be in for a long season and despite a 1-1 record in the preseason, the offense has given a glimpse of what to expect during the regular season. They have scored 13 points in total and while most teams use the third preseason game to fix offensive issues, the Jets do not have the talent to fix anything. The quarterback situation is a mess and the offensive line is even worse. Head coach Todd Bowles started three new offensive linemen last week against Detroit so there is a lack of cohesiveness that will also carry into tonight. Then there is the receiving crops that lacks no true No. 1 option. Facing a great Giants defense for the first half will prove troublesome. For the Giants, the game might not count but it does have meaning considering they are expected to be contenders in the NFC. In particular, this will be their last chance to grow confidence in the offensive line before the season starts. The Giants offense has struggled for the most part throughout two preseason games but with the first team likely to be on the field for at least the first half, head coach Ben McAdoo is looking for a clean performance with plenty of opportunities to move the ball down the field. Even though Odell Beckham will not see the field and Brandon Marshall is likely out, there are option for Eli Manning, namely Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. This is one of the higher lines of the night but for good reason and the Giants sense of urgency will propel them to an easy victory tonight. 10* (260) New York Giants |
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08-26-17 | Hawaii v. UMass | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 222 h 45 m | Show |
It was a roller coaster season for Hawaii last season but it ended on a good note to carry some momentum into the 2017 season. You will rarely see a .500 season that feels like more of a success than the Warriors as it was the combination of resilience and an increasingly competent offense, and there is no reason to assume that either will disappear before 2017 begins. Hawaii won its final three games including an upset over Middle Tennessee in the Hawaii Bowl and comes in ready to light it up. Quarterback Dru Brown and running back Diocemy Saint Juste return to form one of the MWCs scarier backfields while nine of the top 11 receiving targets and three starting offensive linemen also return. The defense was a problem last season as Hawaii allowed 5.3 ypc and a 48 percent conversion rate on third down. Those are two of the stats it needs to improve upon and that is very likely to happen for two reasons as the Warriors will be better on defense than in 2016, and their schedule does not include trips to Michigan and Arizona (111 points allowed in just those two games). Massachusetts is coming off a 2-10 season and while it should be better, it will not be much better. The offensive line is a big weakness with just two starters back trying to improve upon the No. 124 ranked rushing offense in the country and that spells trouble. In 2015 when they won three games, the Minutemen were outrushed by 51 ypg but that ballooned to over 95 ypg last season so they need help on both sides. They do not have the passing game to keep up with Hawaii so any early lead for the Warriors could be too much for Massachusetts to catch up to. The travel is always a concern with Hawaii but that is a non-issue with this being the first game of the season. 10* (293) Hawaii Rainbow Warriors |
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08-26-17 | BC v. Ottawa +1 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
Ottawa picked up a much-needed win last week against Hamilton and while it came against the 0-8 Tiger-Cats, it was a huge victory. It snapped a three-game losing streak for the RedBlacks which are now 2-6-1 but even a record like that still has them in contention in the weak East Division. It was a dominating performance as it should have been as they outgained Hamilton by 221 total yards, giving them some much needed confidence going forward. Despite being four games under .500, Ottawa is actually slightly outscoring opponents as the six losses have come by a total of just 20 points. British Columbia lost a tough one at home against Calgary last Friday, its second straight loss after getting throttled by Saskatchewan five days earlier. The offense has struggled over the two-game skid as the Lions have managed only 25 points with the quarterback situation not in a good place right now. Neither Jonathon Jennings nor Travis Lulay seems to be in a good zone since the 4-1 start to the season. We are catching a short price here due to the difference in records as well as the West vs. East scenario but it is clear that Ottawa is better than its record shows while the Lions are arguably not as good as their 5-4 record indicates. 10* (376) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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08-25-17 | Tigers v. White Sox +148 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 148 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Here is another situation where the starting pitching is dictating the line and it is not justified. Overall, Detroit may have the starting pitching edge here but not based on the splits and as far as the overall teams, Chicago is the worst team in the American League but the Tigers are not far behind as they are just five games better and they are actually five games worse when talking home/road split records. The White Sox took three of five games against Minnesota to open this homestand and they are 4-0 in their last four games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. The Tigers won yesterday against the Yankees in a game that was overshadowed by three separate fighting instances which closed out a 2-4 homestand. Detroit has the third worst road record in the American League no thanks to seven straight losses on the highway. The Tigers have also dropped seven straight games after scoring five or more runs. Justin Verlander takes the hill and he is a publicly backed pitcher thus the overpriced moneyline. He has struggled on the road this season as he has a 5.24 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 13 road starts with Detroit going 3-10 in those games. Additionally, the Tigers are 1-8 in his last nine road starts against teams with a losing record. Since re-entering the rotation, Miguel Gonzalez has been spot on as six of seven starts have been quality outings with only one bad start taking place in Boston. In three home starts since his return, he has a 2.25 ERA and those games came against the Astros, Indians and Dodgers. Overall, six of eight home starts have been quality outings. 10* (974) Chicago White Sox |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
We played against Seattle last week as it hosted Minnesota in a matchup of coaches that have been outstanding in the preseason and we were on the wrong end as Mike Zimmer dropped to 13-2 straight up and 12-3 against the number since taking over as Vikings head coach. The Seahawks remain home for their third preseason game and this is the one that counts. Starters will see extended time and it is the defense that needs the extra time. Coming back to play into the second half is an important part of the preseason process, head coach Pete Carroll said, because "it is normal procedure. The process of getting them ready to extend your play time. That is just typically how we have done it." On defense and special teams, that extended game action is particularly important when it comes to tackling, something the Seahawks do not do in practice. The starting defense does not feel like it has demonstrated its highest level of play so far this preseason in limited action. The Kansas City offense has been spot on as the first team offense has scored in all four possessions it has been on the field but this is clearly the biggest test thus far. On the other side, the only factor preventing the team from playing well is its struggling offensive line and offensive improvement is necessary if the Seahawks want to make a run this season. Under Carroll, the Seahawks are 14-1 ATS going up against an opponent that is coming off a win by three or more points. This includes the win last week against Minnesota which was coming off a win at Buffalo by a touchdown. 10* (258) Seattle Seahawks |
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08-25-17 | Washington Mystics +4.5 v. New York Liberty | Top | 66-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Washington and New York square off on Friday in a game that will have playoff implications with the regular season winding down. The Mystics and Liberty are separated by a half-game and it is the latter that is playing at a high level right now. New York has won six straight games to move ahead of Washington in the Eastern Conference and that streak includes impressive wins over Minnesota, Los Angeles and Connecticut. The Liberty are two games behind the Sun for first place so getting there is still a possibility but unlikely. Washington has been playing inconsistent of late as it has gone 3-3 over its last six games which enabled it to be passed by the Liberty but the Mystics were short-handed over this stretch. Elena Delle Donne missed all six of those games and Washington has felt her absence throughout the season as it is 4-5 in the nine games she has missed while going 13-7 in the 20 games she has been on the floor. One of those losses came against New York by 30 points and that is a game the Mystics have not forgotten. Delle Donne will be back tonight. Washington did win the first meeting so the winner here will determine the head-to-head tiebreaker. The difference between the fourth and fifth seed is the fourth seed earns a bye into the second round. This game will have the feel of a playoff matchup and the underdog has the value in such a situation. 10* (615) Washington Mystics |
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08-25-17 | Twins +167 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-1 | Win | 167 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a line that is hard to get on board with as Toronto has the better pitching matchup but it is far from the better team. As mentioned in the past, these lines show how much starting pitching can dictate the numbers but anything can happen after that pertaining to bullpens, defense, etc. so this is where the value takes precedence over one particular matchup. The Blue Jays are coming off a difficult 1-5 roadtrip which pretty much knocked them out of the playoff picture as they are now five games out of the American League Wild Card with seven teams ahead of them. Toronto has won just two of its last eight series openers. The Twins opened their roadtrip with a five-game series against the White Sox which resulted in a disappointing 3-2 series loss. They still hold down the second Wild Card slot as they are ahead of the Angels, Mariners and Royals by a half-game and the Rangers by a full game. Minnesota is 34-27 on the road and it has won five of its last six games on the road against teams with a winning home record. Bartolo Colon has come in and pitched well for the Twins after getting let go by the Braves after posting an 8.14 ERA in 3 starts. He has allowed four runs or less in all seven starts with Minnesota including three runs or less in all three road starts where he has a solid 2.95 ERA. Toronto hands the ball to J.A. Happ who is having another good season but he has been inconsistent especially at home where only four of nine starts have been quality outings. The Blue Jays are 1-4 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (967) Minnesota Twins |
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08-24-17 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +1 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
We won both games last week involving these two teams and tonight, we will be going the complete opposite way of those selections. We played on Winnipeg as the Blue Bombers handed Edmonton its first loss of the season as the situation was a great one for the home team as the Eskimos has 22 players on the injury list and coming in, Edmonton had won six of its seven games by a single possession. Additionally, five of those wins came against the East Division including two victories over 0-7 Hamilton. Now the Blue Bombers hit the road in a classic letdown situation with a game against rival Saskatchewan on deck. We also played against Montreal which was playing the second game of a home-and-home against Toronto and coming off a 21-9 win in the first meeting but the Argonauts were without quarterback Ricky Ray. The Alouettes return home where they are 3-1 compared to 0-4 on the road and they will be out for revenge on top of it as they lost in Winnipeg by a single point prior to that Toronto series. It is even a greater point of revenge considering how the Blue Bombers won as they reversed a historic 12-point deficit inside the final minute of play to beat Montreal. The Alouettes offense has been inconsistent however they catch a good matchup here where they can bust out as Winnipeg is allowing 407.4 ypg which is third worst in the league. Going back, the Alouettes are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss. 10* (372) Montreal Alouettes |
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08-24-17 | Padres +205 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 205 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
The Cardinals snapped their three-game slide with a win last night but it has been a rough stretch for them as they have gone just 3-6 over their last nine games to fall 4.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central. St. Louis is just two games over .500 yet is laying a number that is normally placed on teams with much better records and more dominant advantages. San Diego has had a tough season but it has played a lot better over the second half as it has gone 23-22 over its last 45 games which may be below average for some teams but when a team is getting big underdog numbers, it is well above average. In this case. The Padres are +10.2 units over this stretch and continue to be undervalued. More recent, the Padres are 9-4 in their last 13 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Carlos Martinez is part of the reason this number is so big but he has not been very dominant this season. He has a 3.57 ERA in 25 starts which is good but not great and the Cardinals have gone only 13-12 in those games. He has been hurt by the long ball this season as he has allowed 22 home runs including 12 over his last nine starts. The Cardinals are 1-4 in his last five starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Luis Perdomo gets the ball for San Diego and he has been up and down this season but is catching a good number in a good spot because the Padres are facing a righty starter as they have struggled against lefties, going 0-4 in his four starts against opposing southpaws. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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08-24-17 | Red Sox v. Indians +149 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 149 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
We played against the Cleveland ace last night and will play against the Boston ace tonight. These lines show how much starting pitching can dictate the numbers and then anything can happen after that pertaining to bullpens, defense, etc. so this is where the value takes precedence over one particular matchup. Cleveland won the opener of this four-game series but the Red Sox have taken the last two games to maintain their 4.5-game lead in the American League East. Minnesota lost last night as well so Cleveland still has a 4.5-game lead in the American League Central so this is a significant game for both sides. Chris Sale is coming off a rare loss and looks to bounce back from that defeat to the Yankees. He has arguably been the top pitcher in the American League, slightly ahead of Kluber, so his prices reflect that but this is a tough spot for him. Cleveland got to him for seven runs in five innings in the beginning of August and the Indians got to him for nine runs in 10.1 innings in two starts last season so he has struggled against this roster. In 28 career appearances against Cleveland, Sale is 5-7 with a 4.44 ERA which is his highest career ERA against any opponent where he has made more than two appearances. Trevor Bauer counters for the Indians and he has been on a roll as he has tossed five straight quality starts, posting a 1.54 ERA in those games. He has been solid at home and going back, the Indians are 10-3 in his last 13 starts following a quality outing in his last start. Great value with Bauer in this spot. 10* (916) Cleveland Indians |
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08-24-17 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is the week that most of the starters will be playing into the third quarter and that should be the case for both sides here. For the Dolphins, 10 of the 11 projected offensive starters (left guard remains unsettled) should start, and 10 of the 11 projected defensive starters (middle linebacker is still up for grabs) should start. Considering the NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and head coach Adam Gase is a quarterback-friendly coach, the offense will be under the most scrutiny Thursday. He likes the way things are trending when it comes to quarterback Jay Cutler and his receivers learning each other. Communication among Cutler and the rest of the offense has been going well, which allows them to adjust to each other. For the Eagles, Carson Wentz has only thrown the ball 13 times this preseason and the running game has been a huge question mark. Defensively, a revamped secondary is going to be tested. The Dolphins fall into an exceptional preseason situation as we play on any NFL preseason road underdog of four points or less, that is coming off a straight up favorite loss by 10 points or more, going up against an opponent coming off a straight up and ATS win. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.3%) since 1980. This system goes right to the heart of what the majority of bettors shortcomings are and that is they see what happened the week before and then overreact. The Chiefs were involved in this situation last week and rolled to a 30-12 victory. 10* (251) Miami Dolphins |
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08-23-17 | Rangers +138 v. Angels | Top | 7-5 | Win | 138 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
Texas and Los Angeles have split the first two games of this four-game series and the Rangers will try and bounce back following a 10-1 shellacking last night. It has been a solid run for Texas which is 12-7 over its last 19 games to move to within three games of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Rangers have won five straight games against winning teams and are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. The Angels remain a half-game out of the Wild Card as they too have been playing well down the stretch. They are just 3-4 in their last seven home games and will be at a disadvantage tonight with the starting pitching. Andrew Heaney will be making his second start since returning from a 16-month absence due to a pair of surgeries including Tommy John. The first start did not go well as he allowed five runs in five innings against the Orioles as he allowed four home runs. He could settle down some at home but faces a Rangers offense that has been hitting lefties well and they have won four of their last five games against left-handed starters. Texas counters with Andrew Cashner and he is a big reason Texas is back in the playoff hunt. He has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts, posting a 2.44 ERA over that stretch with six of those outings resulting in quality performances. His road record is not great but it is due to a lack of run support which should pick up tonight. 10* (973) Texas Rangers |
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08-23-17 | Red Sox +178 v. Indians | Top | 6-1 | Win | 178 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The Red Sox won Game Two of this series last night to maintain their 4.5-game lead over the Yankees in the American League East. They scored nine runs which was the eighth time that they have scored eight or more runs over their last 21 games, averaging 6.1 rpg over that stretch. Going back, Boston has won 11 of its last 15 games against teams with a winning record. The Indians also have a 4.5-game lead in their division as their lead has been decreased by the Twins in the American League Central. Cleveland has not had a great home field edge this season as it is just four games over .500. Drew Pomeranz exited his start Friday against the Yankees with back spasms but he threw a bullpen session before the Red Sox game in Cleveland on Monday and is fine to make his next scheduled start tonight. He has been one of the most effective starters this season, as the lefty is 12-4 with a 3.31 ERA in 24 starts for the Red Sox. Cleveland is hitting just .220 against lefty pitching over its last 10 games and the Red Sox are 15-3 in his last 18 starts against teams with a winning record. Corey Kluber has been pitching at a high level although he is coming off an average outing against the Royals. He has gotten a bunch of run support of late but that should not happen here and he has had his struggles against Boston, posting a 4.78 ERA in nine games. The Red Sox are 14-3 in their last 17 games against right-handed starters. 10* (969) Boston Red Sox |
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08-23-17 | Seattle Storm -1.5 v. Atlanta Dream | Top | 83-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Seattle and Atlanta are both still in contention for the WNBA playoffs but they are not in the same situation. The Storm made a coaching change less than two weeks ago and it has done wonders. They parted ways with coach Jenny Boucek and promoted assistant Gary Kloppenburg to interim coach and since then, they have won all four of their games with both the offense and the defense picking up their games. Seattle is sitting in the seventh spot and can clinch a playoff should it win here and at home on Sunday against Phoenix which is its final home game of the season. Things are not looking good for Atlanta which was in fine shape a month ago but has since lost nine straight games to fall 10 games under .500 on the season. The Dream are in tenth place in the playoff standings and they sit four games out of the final spot with only four games left. A loss here and a won by Dallas tonight against Connecticut will officially eliminate them from playoff contention and at this point, it is a foregone conclusion. The offense has lagged and the defense has been atrocious as they have allowed at least 81 points in seven of the nine losses including 90 or more points four times. Atlanta is just 2-7 ATS as an underdog of fewer than five points and while this is a must win game, there is just as much importance on the other side. 10* (605) Seattle Storm |
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08-22-17 | Phoenix Mercury v. Minnesota Lynx -7.5 | Top | 69-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
Minnesota went through one of the biggest letdowns you will see as it was coming off a historic 59-point win over Indiana which included an insane 37-0 run and then lost in New York two days later. The Liberty are a very good team so the loss was not all that surprising but going from one extreme to the other is a surprise and this has been a very trying month for the Lynx. Unlike some recent Lynx losses, the problems with the offense was a result of the New York defensive scheme. The Liberty are playing as well as any team in the WNBA right now, beating each of the three teams above them in the league standings (Lynx, Sparks, Sun) this past week. Now presents the opportunity of a bounce back against a team Minnesota has dominated. Phoenix is also coming off a loss as it went to Connecticut and got shelled by 28 points to continue what has been a very uneven stretch. The Mercury are just 4-8 over their last 12 games and sit just one games over .500 which puts them in sixth place in the WNBA playoff standings with Seattle and Dallas just a game and a half back. Despite the recent struggles for Minnesota, it still has a serious home floor advantage with the lone loss coming against the Sparks during this recent stretch. Minnesota has won 12 straight meetings against Phoenix dating back to August of 2015 and going back, the Lynx are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. 10* (602) Minnesota Lynx |
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08-22-17 | Yankees v. Tigers +160 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Yankees trail Boston by 4.5 games in the American League East and have a 2.5-game lead for the top Wild Card spot as they continue their roadtrip. They took a four-game home-and-home against the Mets but lost two of three against Boston over the weekend and they are now four games under .500 on the highway. Detroit took the series finale on Sunday to salvage one game against the Dodgers, a team no one has been able to solve and it comes in right at .500 on the home field. Obviously, it has been a disappointment for the Tigers which are out of playoff contention but these are the teams and spots to play on as there is a lot of value to work with. They send Matthew Boyd to the hill and he has been average at best this season but he did put together a good stretch after coming back into the rotation in July prior to his last two outings. He faces a Yankees offense that is hitting just .236 against left-handed pitching which is No. 25 in baseball. The Tigers are 7-3 in his last 10 series opening starts. Masahiro Tanaka takes the hill for the Yankees and he has had a solid second half but he continues to struggle on the road where he has a 5.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 12 starts with just five of those resulting in quality outings. Detroit is hitting .272 at home against right-handed pitching. 10* (920) Detroit Tigers |
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08-22-17 | A's +150 v. Orioles | Top | 6-4 | Win | 150 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Baltimore won the opener of this series last night behind a big night from Adam Jones who hit a pair of home runs, part of four home runs from the Orioles. The win snapped a two-game slide as they remain in the hunt in the American League Wild Card race. Winning streaks have been few and far between as Baltimore is 0-5 in its last five games following a win. Oakland fell to 1-3 on this current roadtrip as the offense has been able to do nothing, scoring a grand total of seven runs over the four games. The A's have a chance to bust out tonight against Ubaldo Jimenez who has been horrible this season and has no business laying a number this high. He has a 6.47 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 20 starts with only four of those being quality outings. His numbers are even worse at home where he possesses a 6.61 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in nine starts and Baltimore has dropped his last seven outings against the American League West. Paul Blackburn will be making his tenth start for Oakland and it has been a solid rookie season. He has a 3.46 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with five of nine starts resulting in quality performances. This includes three of four on the road where he has a 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. 10* (915) Oakland A's |
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08-21-17 | Rangers +134 v. Angels | Top | 5-3 | Win | 134 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
The Rangers hit the road following a successful 7-3 homestand although it is coming off a disappointing four-game split against the White Sox. Texas is 11-6 over its last 17 games with five of those losses coming by just one run and sitting a game under .500, it is just two and a half games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League which happens to be occupied by the Angels. After dropping it opener in Baltimore, Los Angeles won both games over the weekend to culminate a 7-2 roadtrip. The Angels have been hot by winning 15 of their last 21 games but they have won just four of their last 14 series openers. Texas sends Cole Hamels to the hill and he is having a solid season with a 3.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 15 starts, 10 of which have been quality outings. He has dominated the Angels this season as he has allowed just one run in two starts over 14.2 innings and going back, the Rangers are 14-4 in his last 18 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The Angels counter with Tyler Skaggs who has been pitching well since returning to the rotation in early August. He has a 2.93 ERA in three starts however he has a 1.63 WHIP to go along with that and that is a big concern. The Angels are 2-5 in his last seven home starts. 10* (965) Texas Rangers |
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08-20-17 | Saints v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 13-7 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
The Chargers were embarrassed last week in their first game in front of the new fanbase and they will be out to make amends for that tonight on national TV. The first unit offense and the first unit defense did their jobs against Seattle but it was the backups that played horrible with costly turnovers and non-execution leading to a 31-point loss. Head Coach Anthony Lynn is nothing if not direct, which is why he has been quite blunt that the second and third string players must elevate their games. While pleased with the performance of the starters, Lynn did not like what he saw from the depth players and he wants better production. A win prior to hitting the road for the final two preseason games and the first regular season game is a must. As much as there is a desire to win these games, the Saints are keeping the preseason losses in perspective as they approach Sunday's game against the Chargers. "I hadn't really paid too much attention to it," coach Sean Payton said Thursday after joint practices with the Chargers. "Obviously, there are some things that we prioritize in the preseason." This is brought up because Payton could care less as witnessed by the 10-game losing streak in the preseason that the Saints are currently on. The line is not on the side of the Chargers based on typical preseason numbers but the situation overtakes that as they get their first win in their new city. 10* (430) Los Angeles Chargers |
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08-20-17 | Seattle Storm v. Chicago Sky -2 | Top | 103-66 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
We played against Seattle on Friday and won with San Antonio but the Storm did win their third straight game with interim head coach Gary Kloppenburg after firing coach Jenny Boucek last week. They are right in the playoff mix as they are currently in the No. 8 spot but it is not a safe lead as they are ahead of Chicago by just a game and a half and head into Sunday with a lot on the line. The fact they are underdogs here may surprise a few but they come in with a 3-10 road record, winning just two of seven games as road underdogs. Additionally, they are just 1-4 ATS this season when getting fewer than five points. Anyone who bet on Chicago Friday had one of the worst beats ever as the Sky were getting seven points at home against Los Angeles and were covering the entire game until double-overtime when they were outscored 16-7 to lose the game and cover. After a horrible 3-12 start to the season, Chicago has gotten itself back into the playoff picture with an 8-5 run over its last 13 games which includes a 4-3 record at home. The three losses all came against winning teams with all coming down to the wire so the Sky have held their own here. This is a must win with only five games left, three of which are on the road against teams a combined 56-27. Chicago has covered four straight games against losing teams while Seattle is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games against the Eastern Conference. 10* (676) Chicago Sky |
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08-20-17 | Blue Jays +179 v. Cubs | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
The Blue Jays first trip to Wrigley Field since 2005 has not gone well as they have dropped the first two games in frustrating fashion. They trailed by a run going into the bottom of the eighth inning on Friday and lost another one-run game yesterday to fall five games under .500 and slipping to four games back in the American League Wild Card standings. The Cubs are just 8-9 over their last 17 games as both pitching and hitting have been inconsistent over this stretch. They are just five games over .500 at home and are overpriced today as they put their most unprofitable pitcher on the hill. Kyle Hendricks has been pitching well but has received no run support as Chicago has lost his last three starts while scoring just four runs in total. Going back, the Cubs have scored two runs or less in six of his last seven starts. Marco Estrada got off to a terrible start this season but put together a nice run prior to his last start against Tampa Bay. Chicago is hitting just .246 against right-handed pitching this season which is ahead of only the Padres in the National League and while they are +7.8 units against lefties, they are -26.6 units against right-handed starters on the season. The Blue Jays salvage the series finale on Sunday. 10* (929) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-20-17 | Dodgers v. Tigers +142 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 142 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
The Tigers could muster out only four hits last night as they got shut out by the Dodgers and wasted another strong home effort from Michael Fulmer. They are again catching a solid home number and we will back them a second straight day as they look to snap a six-game losing streak against the hottest team baseball has seen in a long time. The Dodgers are 52-9 over their last 61 games and they have already locked down another series win so we will step in front of them here in what looks like another pitching advantage for the home team. While Kenta Maeda is third on the team with 11 wins, he is No. 6 in the rotation of starters in ERA, ahead of only Brandon McCarthy. He has a 4.44 ERA on the road which is in fact the worst of the starting rotation and only one of his 10 road outings have been a quality performance. Justin Verlander counters for Detroit and he is coming off a rough outing against the Rangers but that was in 94-degree Texas heat where the humidity only added to it. He had tossed five straight quality starts prior to that including three straight starts at home where he has a 2.93 ERA and nine of his 12 starts have been quality. The Tigers are 12-5 in his last 17 home starts. 10* (926) Detroit Tigers |
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08-19-17 | Atlanta Dream v. Dallas Wings -4.5 | Top | 86-90 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This would typically be a good contrarian spot to back Atlanta considering it has lost eight straight games both straight up and against the number. However, the line is not indicative of that and the Dream right now look to be both mentally and physically shot. A losing streak like this is hard to recover from considering five of the losses have not been close and they are now three games out of the final playoff spot with a team in ahead of them in ninth place. The road has been a disaster as Atlanta is 3-11 including 2-9 as a road underdog. Dallas is tied with Seattle for the No. 7 and No. 8 spots in the playoff standings so each game is important at this point. The Wings have lost two straight games to get into this position, the last coming on the road at red hot Connecticut and the one prior to that came at home against Phoenix by a point in overtime. Dallas had won five straight home going into that game with the Mercury and it is now 9-6 on the home floor on the season. The Wings have won five of seven games as home favorites and while mentioned each game is important, with the next two games at Connecticut and Washington, this one becomes even more vital and a win would likely knock Atlanta out of the playoff picture giving the wings one less team to worry about. 10* (668) Dallas Wings |
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08-19-17 | Diamondbacks v. Twins +137 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 137 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Minnesota took the opener of this series last night to keep pace with the Indians in the American League Central and while they deficit is six games, the loss by the Angels put the Twins into a tie with Los Angeles for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. They are 15-11 over their last 26 home games after a very poor start at Target Field and they have won nine of their last 12 overall. Arizona is now a game behind Colorado for the top Wild Card spot in the National League and is four games up on St. Louis, the closest team in pursuit. The Diamondbacks dropped to four games under .500 on the road and they have lost seven of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The Twins turn to Jose Berrios who has been very up and down of late but his struggles have mostly come on the road. In 10 road starts, he is 4-4 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.41 WHIP but in seven home starts, he is 6-1with a 3.30 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Five of those starts have been quality outings and the Twins have won his last five home starts. Zack Greinke gets the ball for Arizona and he is getting the most public action of any team in baseball on Saturday. He has been on a roll but like Berrios, his success has come at home. He is 11-1 with a 2.34 ERA in 14 home starts but he is just 3-4 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 10 road starts with Arizona going 5-5 in those games. The most surprising is the fact that only four of those 10 starts have been quality performances. 10* (980) Minnesota Twins |
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08-19-17 | Chiefs -1 v. Bengals | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 77 h 22 m | Show |
The Chiefs opened their 2017 preseason with a loss against San Francisco and one that did not go over too well. Kansas City allowed 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to lose by 10 points against one of the worst teams in the league and while the games do not count, the Chiefs will be out to play better. They were outgained by 247 total yards and they heard about it this past week. Cincinnati meanwhile beat up on Tampa Bay as they outscored the Buccaneers 20-3 following an early 9-3 deficit. The Bengals got a surprisingly good showing from third string quarterback Jeff Driskel who was their best player on offense and it will be interesting to see what happens with him going forward and possibly taking the place of A.J. McCarron whose name continues to be brought up in trade talks. The Kansas City first string looked good on both sides of the ball in very limited action and they will see more action in the second game. While Driskel shined for the Bengals, rookie Patrick Mahomes was nearly as solid as he went 7-9 for 49 yards and a touchdown. Trading up for him in the draft was a risky move and just one game in cannot tell much but it showed that he is a possible replacement for Alex Smith come next season. The Chiefs fall into an exceptional preseason situation as we play on any NFL preseason road underdog of four points or less, that is coming off a straight up favorite loss by 10 points or more, going up against an opponent coming off a straight up and ATS win. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6%) since 1980. This system goes right to the heart of what the majority of bettors shortcomings are and that is they see what happened the week before and then overreact. 10* (411) Kansas City Chiefs |
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08-19-17 | Dodgers v. Tigers +149 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
The Dodgers continued their epic run last night with an 8-5 win in this series opener to improve to 51-9 over their last 60 games. They have crushed the books so stepping in front of this moneytrain can be scary but we are doing so this afternoon as Detroit is in a very good spot. The Tigers have dropped five straight games and last night, the defeat knocked them back to .500 at home. Despite that, the Tigers are 9-3 in their last 12 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Michael Fulmer takes the hill for Detroit and he looks to bounce back from a pair of poor outings, one before his DL stint and one after. Both of those were on the road however and he has been solid at home with a 3.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 11 starts, nine of which have been quality outings. This includes a stretch of five straight and going back, the Tigers are 10-3 in his last 13 home starts against teams with a winning record. Hyun-Jin Ryu counters for the Dodgers and he has been the worst road pitcher on the staff as his four losses are the most on the team and his two wins are tied for fewest among qualified starters. Detroit has crushed lefties all season as it is first in the American League with a .285 and first in baseball with a .846 OPS and they got to Rich Hill last night so facing another a second straight day is a big edge. Going back, the Dodgers are 2-8 in Ryu's last 10 road starts. 10* (978) Detroit Tigers |
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08-19-17 | Montreal v. Toronto -1.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
This is the second game of a home-and-home between these East Division rivals with Montreal taking the first meeting 21-9 eight days ago. That win snapped a two-game slide for the Alouettes and it has been an up and down season for them as they have yet to win consecutive games but have come close as their four losses have all come by seven points or less. Montreal owns a very impressive win over Calgary earlier in the season which came at home where it is 3-1 compared to going 0-3 on the road. The Alouettes were favored by nine points last week which seems like a huge number which does not coordinate with the number this week but that is because Toronto was without quarterback Ricky Ray and that was the difference in the game. Backups Cody Fajardo and Jeff Mathews led the Argonauts to only nine points while failing to find the end zone in Week Eight. That was the third straight loss for Toronto, two coming on the road and the third coming against Calgary which is once again red hot and it did not catch the Stampeders in a good spot like Montreal did. We can chalk last week up as a bad break for Toronto without their signal caller and the other seven games have been true to form as it is 3-0 against the weak East Division and 0-4 against the much tougher West Division. The story last week was the Toronto defense as it was solid once again and its 356.9 ypg allowed is a yard away from being the best in the CFL. The return of Ray and the continued strength of the defense lead Toronto to a revenge victory today. 10* (358) Toronto Argonauts |
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08-18-17 | Calgary v. BC +4.5 | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
We played against British Columbia last Sunday as they got hammered at Saskatchewan to fall to 5-3 on the season but it remains a very dangerous team in the loaded West Division where four teams are separated by two games after the Edmonton loss last night. The Lions other two losses have come against the Eskimos, one coming at home by just three points in their season opener. They looked awful last week and that is keeping the betting public off the Lions and we will go the contrarian route here with a team that has not been a home underdog since the season opener in 2016. Calgary is coming off its bye week so it has the advantage of playing with some extra rest but at the same time, some positive momentum could have been lost after winning its last three games by a combined score of 128-35. The Stampeders are road favorites for a reason based on the recent play but facing a quality team and favored by this amount is too much of an overreaction. Going back, the Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss and they will be extra motivated here against a hated rival. They get their first crack at Calgary after they were shellacked last season in the Division Finals by a 42-15 score. Payback is in order tonight. 10* (356) British Columbia Lions |
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08-18-17 | San Antonio Stars +9.5 v. Seattle Storm | Top | 78-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Seattle remains in the playoff picture in the WNBA following a pair of impressive wins but finds itself in a big letdown spot tonight. The Storm won in Phoenix last Saturday and then upset Minnesota at home on Wednesday but caught a Lynx team that was without Lindsay Whalen and Minnesota has gone 1-3 in the four games she has missed. Seattle has won both game with interim head coach Gary Kloppenburg after firing coach Jenny Boucek last week. Seattle is now 9-6 at home which is decent but far from dominating especially now laying a number this big. San Antonio has won four of its last five games as it looks to build some momentum heading toward the end of the season. The Stars have struggled on the road with a 1-12 record but they have gone 8-4-1 ATS in those games so they have not played as bad as the straight up record shows. Despite being 15 games under .500, San Antonio has been outscored by just over 6 ppg and the value is on its side again. The Storm may be without point guard Sue Bird who is nursing a knee injury and even if she goes, she is not close to 100 percent. The Stars are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing straight up record while the Storm are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (665) San Antonio Stars |
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08-18-17 | Vikings +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
We won with this matchup last season in the exact same situation and we are going with it again. Both Seattle and Minnesota opened the preseason with road victories. The Vikings hit the road for a second straight week but that is no issue in this matchup. With the win last week, Minnesota is now 13-1 straight up and 12-2 against the number under head coach Mike Zimmer so while Pete Carroll of the Seahawks is well documented as a coach that likes to win in the preseason, Zimmer has surpassed him. The only loss came two seasons ago in Tennessee which happened to be the final game of the preseason where starters did not see any action. The Seahawks rolled over the Chargers on Sunday as they won 48-17, benefitting from four Los Angeles turnovers. From a scheduling standpoint, Seattle is at a significant disadvantage. The Vikings will have eight days to prepare for Seattle while the Seahawks will be coming in with just half of that preparation time. The Vikings coaches started gearing up Friday morning in hopes of turning around the first team offense that looked bad against Buffalo. Under ordinary circumstances, heading into Seattle is rarely a good recipe to erase previous offensive woes but these are not ordinary circumstances. On the other side, the Vikings will use their defensive depth to wreak havoc on Trevone Boykin and the Seattle offense, nullifying anything that worked this past Sunday. While the overall preseason run for Minnesota has been outstanding, the Vikings have covered nine straight road games in the preseason and getting a field goal is excellent value. 10* (407) Minnesota Vikings |
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08-18-17 | Angels +128 v. Orioles | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
The Angels were off yesterday and maintained their half-game lead for the American League Wild Card second spot but there are four teams within a game and a half. They have been average on the road this season but have been playing better of late by going 7-2 over their last nine road games and have a very intriguing game tonight from a pitching standpoint. Baltimore is coming off a 4-6 roadtrip and is three games under .500 while sitting three games out of the Wild Card. A return home is what the Orioles need to try and make a run and even though they are a solid home team, they are overpriced in this particular spot. The Angels welcome back Andrew Heaney after being out for the past 13.5 months because of Tommy John surgery and another surgery for a misplaced nerve. He was expected to miss the entire season but he went through a perfect rehab and has come back during the stretch run. He posted a 3.49 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 2015 and made just one start in 2016 before going under the knife. During his rehab in six minor league outings, he posted a 2.60 ERA with 29 strikeouts and five walks in 27.2 innings including allowing one run in seven innings on 94 pitches in his last AAA start. The Orioles counter with Jeremy Hellickson who they picked up from the Phillies and his three starts have been progressively worse. His lone home start was outstanding but catches a hot Angels team that has won four straight games against right-handed starters. 10* (913) Los Angeles Angels |
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08-17-17 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg +1.5 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Edmonton remains the lone undefeated team in the CFL but this is a banged-up team now and that is going to eventually catch up. The Eskimos have an unheard of 22 players on the injury report this week with both sides of the ball affected. Edmonton has some key players on offense on the shelf but it is struggling more on the other side as the Eskimos have lost Almondo Sewell and Marcus Howard off the defensive line this week and that is where the Blue Bombers need to expose an Eskimos weakness. Winnipeg has won three straight games including the last two on the road to move to 5-2 overall. The Blue Bombers are in third place in the loaded West Division and they can close the gap with a win tonight. The Saturday win over Hamilton improved Matt Nichols record to 15-5 since becoming the Blue Bombers starting quarterback and since taking over under center, the Bombers are 7-2 in games decided by a single score. A lot of talk is that Winnipeg has been fortunate to be where it is based on the numerous close calls but the same can be said for the other side as Edmonton has won six of its seven games by a single possession. Additionally, five of those wins have come against the East Division including two victories over 0-7 Hamilton. Winnipeg has gone 8-0 ATS in its last eight games against teams with a winning record. 10* (352) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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08-17-17 | Bills +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
The Bills were one of two teams, the Chargers being the other, with new head coaches that failed to win in Week One and unfortunately, we were on the wrong side of that Buffalo game. The Bills won the yardage battle in that game by 67 yards but mistakes killed them as they have 10 penalties for 106 yards and that is something that is not going to be tolerated this week. While Sean McDermott wanted to start off his career in Buffalo with a victory, he gets another chance here in Philadelphia. McDermott is very aware that this is his first time going back to Philadelphia as a head coach. His parents, brother, and other family members will be in attendance to watch him lead the Bills in their shared home town as winning here is no doubt special and just as big as winning that first home game which he failed to do. The Eagles are coming off a poor game against Green Bay so they too will want to improve on the field and get that bad effort out of the way. Goal number one however is to establish a running game that was all but non-existent against the Packers last week. They ran the ball just 19 times (for 47 yards) and threw the ball 54 times (42 of them belonging to third-string QB Matt McGloin). This supersedes the importance of a victory and any success will shorten the game which is an advantage for an underdog and the points. Speaking of which, this line is too high to begin with as home teams should not be favored by more than a field goal in the preseason, except for Week Three when the starters get extended playing time. Last week, home teams of more than three points failed to cover two of three games. 10* (403) Buffalo Bills |
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08-17-17 | Braves +168 v. Rockies | Top | 10-4 | Win | 168 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
The Braves evened this series at a game apiece on Tuesday but the Rockies erupted for 17 runs last night, making this a good spot for Atlanta to come out with a split. Despite the outburst last night, the Colorado offense has been struggling as it averaged 2.3 rpg in its previous eight games. The Rockies have scored double-digit runs 16 times previous to Wednesday and they have averaged just 4.6 rpg in the follow up games while going 7-9 in those games. The Braves hand the ball to Lucas Sims who is winless in three Major League starts but he has not pitched horribly as he has allowed 3, 4 and 4 earned runs in those games and two of those losses came by just one run. He was solid in the Atlanta farm system and prior to his call-up from Gwinnett, he posted a 3.75 ERA in 20 games (19 starts) with 132 strikeouts and 36 walks over 115.1 innings. Jeff Hoffman counters for Colorado and he is a surprisingly large favorite today despite some shaky results. This is the most he has been favored by all season and the Rockies are just 5-6 in his 11 starts as a favorite. He has struggled at home with a 6.15 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in eight starts and the Rockies are 0-4 in his last four starts pitching on one day of rest. 10* (953) Atlanta Braves |
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08-16-17 | Diamondbacks +138 v. Astros | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks and Astros split the first two games of this four-game home-and-home series in Arizona and they head to Houston for the final two games. Arizona went 3-5 on its homestand but is still in good shape in the National League Wild Card as it is tied with Colorado and five games clear of the Cardinals and Brewers. Houston remains in control in the American League West with a 12.5-game lead over the Angels and it will be just a matter of time before it clinches the best record in the league barring a total meltdown. Charlie Morton gets the ball for the Astros and he has been in good form since rejoining the rotation after a month and a half with a 3.59 ERA in seven starts but that includes an ERA over four in four starts at home. His control is a bigger concern as he has walked 15 batters over this stretch. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to Taijuan Walker who has been pitching well but not getting the win. Arizona has dropped his last six starts despite him allowing three runs or less in four of those including three on the road. All of those road losses were by a single run so they have been close to breaking through and we call for it here with in a contrarian spot with excellent value. 10* (927) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-16-17 | Pirates +113 v. Brewers | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
The Pirates lost some ground last night as they dropped the series opener and are now three games behind Milwaukee and 4.5 games out of first place in the National League Central. This is a crucial game as they need to cut this gap before a pair of four-game series against the Cardinals and Dodgers. Milwaukee has won three straight games after a six-game slide and is in a very tough spot this afternoon. Gerrit Cole has picked his game up on the highway after a tough start. In his first seven road starts, he posted a 5.67 ERA and that included four quality outings which shows how bad the other starts were but in his last six road games, he has put up a 2.25 ERA. All six have been quality performances and the Pirates have won his last seven road starts. In addition, he has dominated the Brewers this season with three nearly identical outings of allowing one run over seven innings with a 23:4 combined K:BB ratio. Jimmy Nelson is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed 10 runs in 3.2 innings against Cincinnati. He has been consistent for most of the season but Milwaukee has dropped four of his last five starts and it has also dropped four of his last five starts against the Pirates where he has posted a 5.73 ERA. 9* (903) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-15-17 | Braves +131 v. Rockies | Top | 4-3 | Win | 131 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The feel-good story from Monday came in Colorado where Chad Bettis made his return to the mound after being out for 11 months due to cancer and he was sensational, tossing seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory. The Rockies came in on a 1-5 slide but the win kept them tied with Arizona for the top spot in the National League Wild Card spot. The Braves won on Sunday to snap a five-game losing streak but gave it back last night as they were surprisingly shut out at Coors Field but we expect the offense to pick things back up tonight. Sean Newcomb has been on a good run, allowing three runs or less in four straight starts but he has been held winless since June 27 with Atlanta going 0-7 over his last seven starts. That is a main reason that Colorado is a huge public consensus tonight but Newcomb is in a good spot to keep his success going. Kyle Freeland is having a very good rookie season as he is 11-7 with a 3.70 ERA but his 1.39 WHIP is a concern and he has not pitched well under the lights. He is 9-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 daytime starts but just 2-5 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in nine nighttime starts. The Braves have averaged 4.5 rpg after getting shut out. 10* (957) Atlanta Braves |
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08-15-17 | Pirates +107 v. Brewers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are both in the playoff mix with the Pirates sitting 4.5 games behind the Cubs and the Brewers two games better at 2.5 games out. Pittsburgh is coming off a series loss in Toronto over the weekend as the offense managed to score just three runs on Saturday and Sunday combined. After a day off Monday, the Pirates come in with a 7-2 record in their last nine series openers. The Brewers meanwhile have won two straight games as they won their series with the hapless Reds which are now 20-39 on the road. Milwaukee had lost six straight games prior to that and while the offense woke up over the weekend, they face a tough test tonight. Ivan Nova gets the ball for Pittsburgh and while he has been better at home than on the road, he has not been horrible as he possesses a 1.27 WHIP in 13 starts which is a better indication than his 4.73 ERA. He has a 3.60 ERA in four career starts against Milwaukee. Milwaukee counters with Zach Davies who has been winning more but he been less effective with a 4.40 ERA and 1.40 ERA in 24 starts. Those numbers balloon to a 6.44 ERSA and 1.68 WHIP in 12 home starts and the only reason Milwaukee has won half of those, it is due to solid run support, something that cannot be expected tonight. 10* (953) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-15-17 | Mets +129 v. Yankees | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
The Yankees won the opener of this four-game home-and-home series with the Mets last night as they overcame an early 2-0 deficit and scored the game winning runs in the eighth inning. The Yankees are still playing for much more than the Mets as they are on top of the Wild Card standings in the American League while sitting 4.5 games behind Boston in the East. The Mets are just playing out the string as their pitching has been decimated and they have traded away a good amount of offense. Still, this is the Subway Series and there are games they want nothing more to win. The lone remaining starting pitcher from Opening Day takes the hill tonight and getting Jacob deGrom at a decent underdog price is always worth a look. The Mets have gone 3-1 in his games as an underdog and he has been the most profitable pitcher with New York going 15-8 in his games, netting 4.4 units. 16 of his 23 starts have been quality outings so he has been very consistent. Sonny Gray will be making his third start as a Yankee and he tossed a pair of quality outings since coming over. New York lost both games as the offense gave him one run total and this will be his first start at Yankee Stadium in front of the home crowd so the pressure will be there. 10* (973) New York Mets |
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08-15-17 | Connecticut Sun v. Atlanta Dream +4.5 | Top | 96-75 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
It has been a very tough stretch for Atlanta as it went to San Antonio and lost to the Stars to fall to 3-11 on the road and saw its losing streak reach seven games. The Dream are pushing themselves out of the playoff picture as they are now a game and a half outside of the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA. They return home to face another tough test in Connecticut and this is the sixth straight home game against teams with winning records. While they have lost seven straight games outright, they have also lost those games against the number and that is putting the vast majority of the public on the road favorite. Connecticut is in first place in the Eastern Conference with a 17-9 record, a game better than Washington and its recent schedule has been very favorable. The Sun have played five straight home games, all resulting in wins, but only one of those came against a team with a winning record. Granted, Atlanta is not a winning team but Connecticut is just 7-6 on the road and while the spread record is better, this is an overadjusted line. The Sun have been favored by four points or more on the road just three times and while they are 2-1 ATS, both of those wins came against 7-22 San Antonio while the other game resulted in an outright loss in Dallas. 10* (652) Atlanta Dream |
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08-14-17 | Orioles v. Mariners +107 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The homestand did not start as Seattle hoped as a two-game lead over the Angels flipped into a two-game deficit after it got swept in the four-game set. The Mariners are now a game under .500 while falling behind Minnesota and Kansas City in the American League Wild Card standings. They are tied with the Rays and Baltimore is only a half-game behind them making this another very important series that could go a long way in deciding the playoffs. Seattle is still a game over .500 at home while going 10-3 in its last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Baltimore is off to a 3-4 start on this roadtrip and is doing just enough to remain in the race but the road has been an issue all season as it is 23-37 and those 23 wins are third fewest in the American League. Additionally, the Orioles are 11-23 in their last 34 road games against teams with a winning home record. Yovani Gallardo take the hill for Seattle and while he is not an ace, he is the lone member of Seattle's projected Opening Day rotation who is not on the disabled list so his presence is big. He has been decent as he has allowed three runs or less in four straight starts while the Mariners have won four of his last five starts against losing teams. Kevin Gausman had a four-game quality start streak snapped last time out against the Angels and he brings in a 5.86 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 12 road starts. His numbers are pretty even to those of Gallardo and he should not be laying anything on the road considering the Orioles are 5-11 in his last 16 road starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (916) Seattle Mariners |
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08-13-17 | BC v. Saskatchewan +2 | Top | 8-41 | Win | 100 | 36 h 17 m | Show |
Saskatchewan cashed for us two weeks ago against Toronto and we will be backing the Roughriders again this week as they are coming off a loss on the road in Week Seven. They fell behind 30-0 against British Columbia and managed to make it a more respectable 30-15 loss but a defeat is a defeat and they are set up for a quick revenge turnaround in the second game of this home-and-home set. Saskatchewan is 2-1 at home with the lone defeat coming in overtime against Winnipeg while the wins came against Toronto as mentioned which was impressive and while a win over Hamilton may not look imposing, the Roughriders outgained the Tiger-Cats by 258 total yards so it was a dominating performance. There has been talk about the play of quarterback Kevin Glenn last week but everyone is entitled to a bad game and prior to that, he has been more than fine. British Columbia is 5-2 to start the season and it has been especially good on the road with a 3-1 record although those three victories were against three teams from the East Division and not even the best one. The Lions only two losses have come against Edmonton which is still undefeated heading into Week Eight and that fact is keeping public betting on their side as they are the biggest public consensus of the week which we gladly will fade. This is far from a blind fade though as the home/road splits favor the Roughriders and the revenge just does not go back to last week as they want to end the seven-game skid against one of their hated rivals. 10* (378) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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08-13-17 | Seahawks v. Chargers -1.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
With the win by the Rams last night, first year head coaches are 4-1 and this has always been a big angle to play in the first week of the preseason. There is one more opportunity to expand on that tonight and we will take advantage of the situation that is bolstered even more by extra motivation for the home team. Not only is this the first game with new head coach Anthony Lynn but it also is the first game being played outside of San Diego for the Chargers. While the game does not count, the Chargers, who moved from San Diego in January and are trying to carve out a niche in the populated Southern California sports market, want to make a good first impression. "It's super important for us to go out there and look good as a group," said running back Melvin Gordon. "It's our first showing as an offense, as a defense. We've got to be together." He is part of the first unit that is expected to see a minimum of two series. The Seahawks have notoriously been a team that plays hard and likes to win during the preseason and that is keeping most of the action on their side. It has been mentioned that home field does not mean much in the preseason but this case is certainly different and the venue itself will be loud and raucous with the maximum seating capacity set at 27,000 which is half of Oakland–Alameda County Coliseum, the previous low in the league. Come regular season, home games could be at a disadvantage but that is not the case tonight. Plus, we can catch the Chargers at less than the typical field goal home price. 10* (282) Los Angeles Chargers |
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08-13-17 | Braves +170 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 170 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
The Braves will look to cool off the red-hot Cardinals and avoid a series sweep on Sunday. They have dropped five straight games heading into today and their once profitable season has diminished but they are in prime position here to snap the skid and head to Colorado off a victory. The Cardinals have pulled into a tie for first place with the Cubs in the National League Central following their eighth straight win yesterday as the offense continues to roll. They have averaged 8.0 rpg over this winning streak although they are coming off their lowest output yesterday and the pitching has been bailed out. St. Louis has allowed five runs or more in four straight games and it turns to Michael Wacha today. He has been on a solid short-term run by allowing four runs over his last three starts but for the season, the winning has not been consistent as St. Louis is just 11-10 in his 21 starts and more recent, the Cardinals are 2-7 in his last nine starts following a quality outing in his last start. The Braves counter with R.A. Dickey who has been on a solid run of his own. He has tossed seven quality outings over his last nine starts and when a knuckleballer gets into a groove, that can be tough on opposing teams. Atlanta has a better overall record in his starts and going back, the Braves are 8-2 in his last 10 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (959) Atlanta Braves |
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08-13-17 | Indians v. Rays +169 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
The Tampa Bay offense has dried up completely during this current homestand and the Rays are now eight games out of first place in the American League East. They have been shut out the last two days by Cleveland and in eight games on this homestand, they have failed to score a run five times while averaging a mere 1.0 rpg. Their own pitching has been solid as they have managed to win twice and while the task at hand today seems impossible, we are taking advantage of a great price. Cleveland is 4.5 games up on Minnesota in the American League Central as it has recovered from a 1-4 run prior to taking the last two games in this series. They had dropped six straight road games against teams with a winning home record and they catch a Rays team that has won six straight Game Fours. Corey Kluber is the reason for this big number and he has been on a roll by allowing three runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts. He was bailed out in his last game against the Rockies with Cleveland scoring four runs in the ninth inning to win and now he hits the road where he has not been nearly as good. Kluber has a 2.09 ERA at home but that goes up over a run and a half on the road to 3.66 which is still good but far from dominating. Austin Pruitt got hit hard by the Yankees in his first start coming back into the rotation but he has shut down Houston and Boston in his last two starts, allowing just one run over 12.1 innings. 10* (970) Tampa Bay Rays |
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08-12-17 | Seattle Storm v. Phoenix Mercury -4 | Top | 98-89 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Phoenix is back home following a 1-2 roadtrip that concluded with a one-point win at Dallas in overtime to move back to two games over .500. The Mercury are tied with New York for fifth place in the WNBA standing while trailing fourth place Washington by just a game and a half and that is a coveted spot to go after as avoiding the first-round single elimination game is ideal. Phoenix is 7-6 at home which is nothing special but half of those losses came against Minnesota and Los Angeles where they failed to cover any of those games. The Mercury have won seven of 10 as home favorites. After missing eight games, Brittney Griner is expected to make her return from a knee injury and it is good time for a playoff push. Phoenix went 3-5 without Griner after going 11-7 prior to her injury back on July 14. Seattle has been the biggest underachieving team in the league this season as following a 5-1 run last season to make it to the playoffs, expectations were high. The Storm opened this season 4-1 but it has been all downhill since as they are 6-15 over their last 21 games. They have dropped five straight road games and their 2-10 road record is second worst in the league behind last place San Antonio. Despite this, they are getting a short price tonight and they have gone 2-6 ATS when getting seven or fewer points while winning just one of eight games as a road underdog. 10* (622) Phoenix Mercury |
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08-12-17 | Giants +120 v. Nationals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
This is the makeup game from last night. Washington took three of four against Miami to open its nine-game homestand and there were some good fortunes involved as two wins came by a run while scoring just three runs in three of those games. We played against the Nationals Thursday and suffered a tough loss as they came back from a 2-0 deficit and scored the winning run in the eighth inning. The Giants are coming off a 5-3 homestand as their disappointing season winds down. They have been inconsistent on both sides of the field with an offense that has been inconsistent along with a starting rotation that has been up and down. They were able to win four of their last five games, taking two each from Arizona and Chicago so beating winning teams is a non-issue and San Francisco is catching a good number against a bad starting pitcher. Edwin Jackson has been around since 2003, pitching for 11 different teams with this being his second stint with Washington. He has not been horrible as he has made four starts, tossing two quality outings but now he is laying his biggest moneyline of the season. He has allowed six home runs in the first four games. The Giants counter with Jeff Samardzija who is taking the place of Chris Stratton. He has a 4.75 ERA in 23 starts but his WHIP of 1.18 is a better indication of how his season has gone. Additionally, his xFIP (expected run prevention independent of the performance of the defense) of 3.31 is tenth best in baseball. 10* (901) San Francisco Giants |
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08-12-17 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Despite a loss with Houston on Wednesday, road teams have been solid in the NFL Preseason over the last few years as through Thursday, preseason home teams are just 70-65 SU and 60-73-2 ATS so any line that hits a field goal gives the value to the road team. While we are seeing a field goal in this one, it is being given to the home team and in the first two or three weeks of the preseason when the majority of playing time is given to backups, road teams should not be laying points unless there is significant info that justifies it. That is not the case with Dallas which won its first game over Arizona in the Hall of Fame Game and does have an edge with a game under its belt but it is not significant enough. The Rams have the new head coach angle here as Sean McVay will be making his coaching debut and will want to win his first game to get some momentum going especially in front of the home crowd. So far, new head coaches are 3-1 in the preseason. This affects Jared Goff significantly as he got a new offensively-minded head coach in McVay whose work as the Washington offensive coordinator over the last three years has Rams fans enthralled. This was further enhanced on Friday with the trade for Sammy Watkins although he will not be in action for this one. Because several of the starters are young and inexperienced with new systems on both sides of the ball to install, expect them to get more work than most teams throughout the preseason. 10* (276) Los Angeles Rams |
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