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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-22-14 | Chicago Bears +7.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -120 | 86 h 43 m | Show |
Some people are going to look at this game and see that Seattle is playing at home and coming off a convincing 41-14 win over San Diego and instantly take the Seahawks. We know that Seattle is the defending Super Bowl Champions and at home, it is nearly unbeatable but we cannot forget this is the preseason. This is the week that teams will play their starters more than any other week but in the Seahawks case, there is not much to play for here as they are in excellent shape heading into the regular season so their goal is to find some rhythm for a while and then just stay healthy. The Seahawks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 preseason games and that too is adding to the value as there is no way a quality team should be getting a touchdown or more in a preseason game. The Bears are 2-0 and while both wins came at home, that actually helps us here. Chicago is coming off a disappointing season with an 8-8 record and missed the playoffs for a third straight season. Going 3-5 on the road last season did not help matters so this game presents a great opportunity to rise to the occasion before the actual regular season starts and they will use this one as just that. During the regular season, this may not be a play based on the situation but we take advantage here. Additionally, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) since 1993. 10* (261) Chicago Bears |
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08-21-14 | Washington Mystics v. Indiana Fever -5 | Top | 73-78 | Push | 0 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
We played against Indiana on Sunday as it faced New York in the regular season finale and the basis of the play was that the Fever would rest their starters because the number two seed in the Eastern Conference was already locked up. So while they head into the playoffs coming off a loss, it is not a momentum killer following a three-game winning streak prior to that. Washington is also coming off a loss in its final regular season game which also came against New York the previous day. The Mystics were not resting starters however and they closed the season by losing three of their last four games which killed any chance of grabbing home court in this playoff series. The fact that the road team won all four regular season meetings may be telling us that the home floor is meaning less in this series but I am not buying that as the playoffs are a while different matter. While Indiana did not play well on its home floor this year, this is an experienced playoff team that knows how important it really is to have that edge. Additionally, Indiana has been solid in this situation as it is 15-4 ATS this season revenging a loss and it also falls into a great league-wide situation. We play on favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 revenging a home loss versus opponent. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (602) Indiana Fever |
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08-20-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks +186 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Arizona fell for the fourth straight game last night and it is now 20 games under .500 for the season although the record on the road is substantial better than the record is at home. The offense has been handcuffed of late, scoring no more than four runs over the last nine games but this is a good opportunity to break out of that as the contrarian play gives us plenty of value. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last five games after losing the first two games of a series while going 32-18 in its last 50 games after having lost five or six of their last seven games. Washington is the hottest team in baseball right now as last night marked its eighth straight victory and its lead in the National League East remains at six games as the Braves are on their own winning streak. The Nationals have won five of the eight games by just a single run however so they have not been as dominating as one might think. Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg were heavy favorites in the first two games of this season and justifiably so but Tanner Roark has no business laying this type of number. He is having a solid season for sure but there could be issues going forward as his workload keeps getting higher. He has a 4.26 ERA over his last three starts with two of those being non-quality outings ands despite a 2.57 ERA in 12 home starts, Washington is just 6-6 in those games. Trevor Cahill has turned his season around as he has a 2.70 ERA over his last four starts after posting a whopping 8.10 ERA in his first six starts. Arizona has won his last three starts and the Diamondbacks are 6-1 in Cahill's last seven starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (903) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-20-14 | Cincinnati Reds +102 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
The Reds lost another tough one last night as they blew a 4-1 lead and dropped the game on a hit batter with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning. Cincinnati has now lost four straight, seven of eight and nine of its last 11 games to fall out of the divisional race in the National League Central. The Reds trail the Brewers by 10 games but they still have a glimmer of hope in the Wild Card picture as they are just five games out of the second spot despite being four games under .500. The Reds are 11-5 in their last 16 games after losing the first two games of a series. St. Louis is keeping pace in the division as it is 2.5-game behind Milwaukee and hold down the top Wild Card spot by 2.5-games as well. The Cardinals have won three straight and six of their last seven games with the last two coming in walkoff fashion. We are going against all of the streaks tonight because if there is one pitcher than can get Cincinnati back into the win column, it is Johnny Cueto. He is having an incredible season with a 2.06 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 26 starts with the Reds going 17-9 in those games. They have won his last five starts and while Cincinnati has not been as solid in his road starts overall, it is 6-2 in his last eight highway outings. The Cardinals counter with Lance Lynn and he too has been pitching excellent with seven quality outings over his last eight starts. Six of those have come at home where he has a 2.53 ERA but a concerning 1.21 WHIP. Facing the Reds is not ideal as he has a 4.80 ERA in eight career starts including a 6.75 ERA over the last three outings. 10* (905) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-20-14 | Toronto Blue Jays +120 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 9-5 | Win | 120 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Toronto never gave us a chance last night as it fell behind 2-0 after the first inning and could not even recover from that. The potent Blue Jays offense pounded out a mere two hits and they have scored only 21 runs during the first seven games of this roadtrip but this offense is definitely capable of a big outburst. Toronto is fourth in baseball in average and fifth in runs scored and ending this roadtrip with a win is vital. The Brewers have won five straight games and still hold a 2.5-game lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central. Milwaukee has been solid at home this season with a 35-28 record but going back, it is 19-31 in its last 50 home day games. Additionally, the Brewers are 1-6 in their last seven games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. R.A. Dickey gets the call for Toronto and he has been a tough luck pitcher this season on the road as his ERA is a solid 3.79 but his team in just 3-10 in his 13 starts on the highway. Poor run support has been the issue for the most part but as mentioned, I think that changes today. The Brewers are 1-5 in their last six Interleague games against right-handed starters. Jimmy Nelson will be making his eighth start for the Brewers and his last five have been awesome with all coming in as quality outings. Milwaukee is just 3-3 over his last six start though and it is 0-3 in his three starts when coming off a win in his last outing while going 1-3 in his four daytime starts. The Toronto freefall temporarily ends this afternoon before heading home for a long homestand against divisional opponents. 10* (925) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-18-14 | Cleveland Browns +3 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
I mentioned about the first year head coach being a great angle to play in the preseason if given the right circumstances. So far, we have cashed all three games using this angle (Redskins, Titans in Week One and Texans in week Two) and we look to cap off this week with another winner in this situation. Washington cashed for us last week with a win over the Patriots getting the Jay Gruden era off to a good start. The Browns opened the preseason with a loss against Detroit but the Lions were also debuting a new head coach in Jim Caldwell. While Browns head coach Mike Pettine opened his regime with a loss, I expect his team to bounce back with a victory tonight. Obviously the big story is the Cleveland quarterback situation with Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel competing for the starting job which will be announced after this game. But there is a lot more to it than that and the Browns should have a clear edge tonight based on what the coaches have said recently. Pettine said he wants his starters to play "in the neighborhood" of a half, yet Gruden plans to have his first-teamers on the field for only a quarter or so. The Redskins do have an advantage with three quarterbacks that have had starting experience but that is negated on the other side with the starting quarterback battle going on so the Browns will no doubt open things up more than Washington will. That gives Cleveland the advantage here and going back to last season, it has lost eight straight games so winning this game is more of a priority than it is for the Redskins. 10* (431) Cleveland Browns |
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08-17-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Carolina Panthers -2.5 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
According to reports this weekend, the Panthers will be using this game as their main dress rehearsal as opposed t next week. Head coach Ron Rivera plans to give his starters their most extensive playing time of the preseason against the Chiefs. That type of workload is typical of the third exhibition, but the short turnaround before the Aug. 22 exhibition at New England prompted Rivera to break from tradition. Quarterback Cam Newton may not go as far as the rest of the starters but he is slated to go at least one quarter and possibly more depending on how his ankle responds. "He'll play the first quarter, and we'll evaluate the whole situation and set of circumstances. If we're playing well, doing some good things, the offensive line is shoring up, we'll continue with him into the second," Rivera said. As for Kansas City, Andy Reid announced Alex Smith would play the entire first half Sunday night and either Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray or rookie Aaron Murray could open the second half. Dwayne Bowe will not play tonight because of an injury and while the offense looked sharp at times last week, the defense was a concern and will be again this week. With Carolina coming off a loss last week and using this one to actually gameplan, look for the Panthers to be the team that is more hungry for the victory. 10* (430) Carolina Panthers |
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08-17-14 | Indiana Fever v. New York Liberty -0.5 | Top | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
The final day of the regular season can present some good opportunities based on scheduling situations. In this case, Indiana has secured a playoff spot and it has also secured the second seed in the Eastern Conference which means it has no place to go up or down so this game means very little. The goal is to get out of here healthy for the playoffs and to do that, players will be resting for most of the game. Coach Lin Dunn said that her team is fatigued as it heads to New York. "Whatever happens up there we'll have the second seed so that's nice to know coming into that game and I can also give our starters some more rest and I can also give our backups more minutes," Dunn said. New York is missing the playoffs for a second straight season but coming off a win at Washington last time out, it is out to end the season on a winning streak and seek some revenge at the same time. The Liberty have dropped all three meetings this season to Indiana and the Fever covered all of those games on top of it. Going back, they have dropped the last five meetings so with pride on the line for today, New York can at least end its season on a winning note ad we are getting a price to go along with that. 10* (604) New York Liberty |
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08-16-14 | Atlanta Falcons v. Houston Texans -1 | Top | 7-32 | Win | 100 | 124 h 43 m | Show |
Houston is coming off a loss in its first preseason game of the season and it wasn't pretty as the Texans were thumped in Arizona 32-0. The score was just as bad as the numbers show as Houston was outgained 407-172, the Cardinals offensive output being the second best of the week while the Texans offensive effort was the worst of the week. Last week, I mentioned about the first year head coach being a great angle to play in the preseason if given the right circumstances. Both of the games we played on came through last week and overall, new head coaches were 4-3 but two squared off against each other. So basically the two new head coaches that did not win when facing a returning coach were Lovie Smith of Tampa Bay and Bill O'Brien of the Texans. Heading back to Houston for the first home game, expect O'Brien to have his team ready. While teams want to get a winning attitude following a poor season, the Texans are at the front of the line as they have lost 15 straight games going back to last season after a 2-0 start and this includes seven straight losses at home. Winning back the home fans is essential even if it is preseason. The Falcons meanwhile opened its preseason with a 16-10 win over Miami. They outgained the Dolphins by 143 total yards so things went very well and there is not a lot of urgency going into this one following a solid effort. Houston also falls into a good situation where we play on preseason favorites after a game where they forced no turnovers. This situation is 27-9 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (424) Houston Texans |
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08-16-14 | Montreal Alouettes +14 v. Saskatchewan Roughriders | Top | 11-16 | Win | 100 | 104 h 57 m | Show |
Montreal is pegged as the worst team in the CFL right now and there is certainly a legitimate claim to that. The Alouettes have lost four straight games, the last three coming by double digits, and they have dropped all three of those games against the number as well. Playing a struggling team like this may not seen prudent but this is where we get the best value and in the CFL, going contrarian has paid off for years. Things cannot get much worse in Montreal and probably the best news is that it has benched Troy Smith at quarterback and will start Alex Brink and a change like that can give a boost to an offense. Also, the Alouettes coaching carousel has finally stopped. Ryan Dinwiddie is now officially the offensive coordinator, Jeff Garcia is now the quarterbacks coach and Turk Schonert replaces Erik Campbell as receivers coach. Saskatchewan has won three straight games and has also covered those games so it is on a solid streak. But this is the best time to go against that especially with a team like the Roughriders that has shown this season they are capable of playing flat. Getting up for Montreal is not going to happen especially with a revenge game against British Columbia next week. Montreal falls into a contrarian situation that was also in play with Ottawa. Play on underdogs or pickems after failing to cover the spread in four or five out of their last six games going up against an opponent after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last five seasons. While the outright upset is never out of the question, getting this many points is a must play in this spot. 10* (127) Montreal Alouettes |
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08-15-14 | Detroit Lions v. Oakland Raiders OVER 39 | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 81 h 2 m | Show |
Detroit and Oakland are both coming off closely contested, low scoring games in their preseason openers. Because of the low scoring games, we will be looking at the over in this one with a lot of that based on what we didn't see last week. The Lions and Browns scored a total of 25 points while the Raiders and Vikings managed a mere 16 points so while praise may be given to all of those defenses, the offenses were far from what we are to expect. And we will see a difference this week. Oakland starting quarterback Matt Schaub played three series last week and did not look very good as he was 3-7 for 21 yards and led the team to only one first down. Of Schaub's four incomplete passes, three were dropped by his receivers, two that were drive killers. Having practiced one more week should have him and his receivers in better shape this week and he should see more reps as well with the word being of the first unit playing past the first quarter and maybe even longer. The Lions meanwhile put up only 13 points with the first team offense seeing very limited action. With a new coaching staff in place, Detroit has new offensive packages and while it may not have showed last week, word is that Matt Stafford has been great during camp, not tossing a single pick during meaningful team drills. Like Schaub, we will see more of Stafford this week. We are catching a good number in my opinion as it has not moved from last week's numbers much and Detroit has a great system on its side. We play the over involving road teams after scoring 14 points or less last game going up against an opponent after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 32-12 (72.7 percent) to the over since 1993. 10* Over (407) Detroit Lions/(408) Oakland Raiders |
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08-14-14 | Houston Astros +138 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Boston won both games in Cincinnati and closed its roadtrip on a three-game winning streak but the Red Sox are getting too much respect as they return home for an 11-game homestand. Boston used to possess a huge home field edge but that is not the case this season and it is coming off a 1-5 homestand prior to the recent roadtrip. The Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days and going back they are 17-26 when playing against a team with a losing record this season. The Astros lost two of three against Minnesota to make it a 3-3 homestand and they hit the road looking to snap a five-game road losing streak. It has been a tough season again for Houston but while losing 9.3 units against the National League, it has won 5.5 units against its American League counterparts. The Astros send Scott Feldman to the hill and he is riding a three-game quality start streak and while all of those were at home, he has actually been better on the road. He has a 3.75 ERA on the highway but he has been the victim of poor run support, getting just 3.1 rpg and thus, the Astros are 1-8 in his nine road starts but that is adding to the value here. Boston counters with Allen Webster and while he is coming off a quality outing last time out, he cannot be trusted. In 10 career starts, he has only three quality performances and his career ERA of 7.40 is telling. The Astros are 9-2 in their last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 while the Red Sox are 1-10 in their last 11 games with the same total parameters. 10* (915) Houston Astros |
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08-13-14 | Chicago Sky v. Washington Mystics +2 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
***11:35 AM ET Start*** With three games remaining for each of the first five teams in the Eastern Conference and all separated by four points, it is still a wide open playoff race. The drastic slide of Atlanta has brought everyone back in the mix and of course that includes both Chicago and Washington. Chicago defeated Atlanta in its last game to make it four wins over its last five games but only one of those wins came on the road where the Sky are only 5-10 on the season including losses in seven of their last nine. Chicago is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog of six points or less. Washington is a game up on the Sky despite losing its last game at Connecticut on Sunday in overtime. The Mystics have played four of their last five games away from home and after a 4-7 start here, they have won their last four games at home. Despite the current venue, Washington is 7-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games this season. Additionally, this is a revenge game for Washington which lost at Chicago by 11 points 10 days ago and that puts it into a great situation where we play on favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 that are revenging a loss versus opponent by 10 points or more. This situation is 62-27 ATS (69.7 percent) since 1997. One more victory would ensure the Mystics a second straight postseason appearance so look for an inspired effort on their home floor this afternoon. 10* (602) Washington Mystics |
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08-12-14 | Los Angeles Sparks +8 v. Minnesota Lynx | Top | 71-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
There doesn't seem to be a whole lot going in the Sparks favor tonight as they have been dominated this season so far by Minnesota and they are catching a Lynx team coming off its first loss in over a month. However, they have the value on their side and there is still a lot to play for. While Phoenix and Minnesota are running away with the Western Conference, Los Angeles is sitting in third place in the conference, a half game up on San Antonio and two and a half games ahead of Seattle and Tulsa. Los Angeles have the worst home record in the WNBA but at 8-7 on the road, it is one of only four teams in the league with a winning road record. The Lynx are now 2.5 games behind Phoenix so with just three games left, catching the Mercury is unlikely as one more Phoenix win will capture the conference. Minnesota is on a 10-2 ATS run while Los Angeles has gone 0-6 ATS over its last six games and these opposing runs are giving us great value with this number. It is actually four points higher than it was in the last meeting here just over a month ago. Also, we play against home favorites in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing 76 or more ppg , after a combined score of 155 points or more. This situation is 51-24 ATS (68 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (653) Los Angeles Sparks |
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08-12-14 | Winnipeg Blue Bombers v. Toronto Argonauts -3 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
It is a very short turnaround for Winnipeg as it will play its third game in 13 days on Tuesday night, which means it will have practiced only once this week. The Blue Bombers are coming off a loss at home against Saskatchewan in their last game on Thursday. This is the second game in four days for Winnipeg and they have lost five in a row under such circumstances and coincidentally, three of those have come against Toronto. Since 2000, the Blue Bombers are 3-9 when the second game is played on the road. Winnipeg is 3-0 on the road, one of three teams in the Western Division that is undefeated on the road and that is adding value to the home side. Toronto meanwhile is coming off a bye week as it has not played since August 1st when it hammered Montreal, snapping a three-game losing skid. The Argonauts are in a weird scheduling quirk as they are actually playing two games this week with the second game coming at home next Sunday against British Columbia. Dealing with that is not an issue in this first game however and they will be looking to build on the latest win. Toronto will be out for revenge as well as it got smashed at Winnipeg in its season opener 45-21. even though they are just 2-3 since then, the Argonauts have won the yardage battle in each of those five games. Toronto falls into a great situation where we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 38 or more points. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (122) Toronto Argonauts |
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08-11-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Pittsburgh Pirates +105 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 105 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
This is the first game of a four-game series between the Tigers and Pirates with the first two games taking place in Pittsburgh before the teams head to Detroit on Wednesday and Thursday. It has already been a rough roadtrip for the Tigers as they are 2-5 with series losses against the Yankees and Blue Jays. They dropped the final two games in Toronto over the weekend including Sunday's game that went 19 innings with them having to use seven relievers. The Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has also lost two straight games after falling to San Diego on Saturday and Sunday which came after a three-game winning streak. The Pirates remain two and a half games behind Milwaukee in the National League Central and are a half game up in the second spot in the Wild Card race. The Pirates are 17-6 in their last 23 home games and they turn to Jeff Locke who is having a very solid season with a 3.78 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 12 starts. His numbers are even better at home in seven starts with the Pirates going 5-2 in those games. This includes five straight wins. Detroit counters with Justin Verlander who has turned things around after a couple poor outings as he has tossed four straight quality starts. This is now working in our favor as we are catching decent value with him being the road favorite where he has a 4.69 ERA on the season in 13 starts. The Tigers are 1-4 in Verlander's last five starts as a road favorite. 10* (972) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-09-14 | Minnesota Lynx v. Phoenix Mercury -5 | Top | 80-82 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
It's no secret these are the two best teams in the WNBA and the winner of this matchup in the Western Conference Finals, which will take place, will more than likely roll to the title. A game and a half separate Phoenix and Minnesota so this is a huge game with home court advantage still up for grabs. The Lynx defeated Phoenix just over a week ago which snapped the Mercury's 16-game winning streak so now the home team will be playing with some revenge. Phoenix will also be looking to play spoiler as after its winning streak was snapped by the Lynx, it will be out to do the same as Minnesota is riding an 11-game run. After covering 11 straight games during its winning streak, the Mercury have dropped their last four games against the number and that is helping with this line in my opinion. Reason being, they were a point favorite in Minnesota 10 days ago and now it is only four points more on their home floor where they are 14-1 on the season. We have a contrarian situation in our favor based on the spread streaks as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread going up against an opponent after having covered three of their last four against the spread. This situation is 67-34 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1997. Additionally, the Lynx are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record while Phoenix is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a win. 10* (652) Phoenix Mercury |
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08-09-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Tennessee Titans -1 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 37 h 23 m | Show |
The first year head coach is always a great angle to play in the preseason if given the right circumstances. I am a fan of playing first year head coaches in their first games as those guys want to infuse a new winning attitude into the team as it is usually the case that the previous season was far from a good one. Tennessee hired Ken Whisenhunt as its new head coach, taking over for Mike Munchak who strung together back-to-back losing seasons and failed to make the playoffs in his three seasons. Whisenhunt brings in solid head coaching experience and he actually has a lot of talent to work with. Like with any team bringing in a new coach also means bringing a new winning attitude and we will see that on display. The Titans worked for approximately 90 minutes Saturday night as a partial tuneup for their preseason opener when they host the Packers. "It was good to be here," Whisenhunt said following practice. "There are always a lot of glitches that come up that you're unaware of. I think we will feel a lot better when we come in here next Saturday night, just as far as the routine goes." Green bay meanwhile is coming off a another NFC North title even though the season ended earlier than hoped, don't expect the Packers to get too crazy in the preseason. Losing Aaron Rodgers to a broken collarbone was devastating so don't expect to see much of him here. The Packers are not concerned with the victories and Green Bay has failed to cover its last four preseason openers so the sense of urgency for this team will not come until Week Three during the dress rehearsal for the starters. 10* (280) Tennessee Titans |
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08-08-14 | Edmonton Eskimos v. Montreal Alouettes +6 | Top | 33-23 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
We played against Montreal last week as it was a slight home favorite over Toronto and the Alouettes were blown out for a second straight game. They have been outscored 72-10 over those two games but we will be backing them this week as they fall into many similar situations that favored their opponent last week and the recent skid has increased their value tremendously. Coming in, we knew it was going to be a tough transitional season for Montreal as it had to start over with a new quarterback for the first time in years and the struggles have been validated. The Alouettes are just 1-2 at home but they have won the yardage battle twice and one of those losses came by just a single points against Winnipeg as turnovers and penalties did them in. Edmonton opened the season with a perfect 4-0 record but lost to Calgary in its most recent game prior to its bye so while the extra rest may be a good thing, this team has been playing well over its head in my opinion and thus, we are catching a good number because of it. The Eskimos are a perfect 2-0 straight up and ATS on the road and even going back to last season, they have been great in covering seven of their last eight games but was favored only once over that stretch. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points when playing with six or less days rest going up against an opponent coming off a bye week. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1996. also, we play on underdogs or pickems after a loss by 20 or more points. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last five seasons including a sensational 22-4 ATS the last three seasons. We have seen this number go up since its opening and so waiting on it has already paid off. 10* (124) Montreal Alouettes |
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08-07-14 | Chicago White Sox +164 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
The White Sox hit the road following two series losses during their homestand against the Twins and Rangers. Going back, they have ended a lot their series poorly but have won six straight series openers and they are catching a solid price tonight against a very comparable team with the home/road splits. The White Sox are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog of +151 to +200 and sent Scott Carroll to the hill who has been all over the place but is in a good spot tonight. After a rough June and start to July, he has been pretty solid with a 3.03. ERA over his last five starts with his best ones coming on the road and going back, that has been the case all season. Carroll has a putrid 5.71 ERA and 1.80 WHIP at home but a 3.15 ERA and 1.16 WHIP on the highway and this is his first ever trip to pitcher friendly Safeco Field. Seattle sits five games over .500 after its two-game sweep of the Braves but that brought it to just three games under .500 at home where it has been a struggle all season. The Mariners are a game out of the second Wild Card spot so while this is certainly a big game for them as well, laying this number is too aggressive. Roenis Elias takes the hill for Seattle and he too has been all over the place as he has gone six straight games without a quality outing. He has been favored by -140 or more only twice and those came against teams that are sitting behind the White Sox in the standings so this makes it the highest that Elias has been favored by all season long. Additionally, Chicago is 4-1 in its last five games against left handed starters. 10* (965) Chicago White Sox |
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08-07-14 | New England Patriots v. Washington Redskins +1 | Top | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The first year head coach is always a great angle to play in the preseason if given the right circumstances. I am a fan of playing first year head coaches in their first games as those guys want to infuse a new winning attitude into the team as it is usually the case that the previous season was far from a good one. After making the playoffs in 2012, last season was a disaster for Washington as it finished 3-13 including losses in eight straight games. This led to Mike Shanahan leaving and the Redskins hiring Jay Gruden as the new head coach and he is expected to instill the team with the confidence that it once had but lost last year. Confidence comes with winning and preseason or not, winning these games can boost the spirit of a team pretty quickly. As for the Patriots, they have in fact won their last five preseason openers but matchups have had a lot to do with that and in reality, they could care less about the preseason as their goal is to look at young talent for depth and most importantly, just staying healthy. These teams have met this week on the practice field as they held joint practices and that certainly was a big edge for Washington coming into a new season with all new different schemes so it gave it a chance to see where it stands. Gruden's hope is that three days of joint practice with the Patriots heading into the teams' preseason opener Thursday at FedEx Field will challenge his players anew. As he put it, working alongside and against the Patriots will give his players a chance to state their case for roster spots. 10* (254) Washington Redskins |
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08-05-14 | Chicago Sky v. Connecticut Sun +3 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
While Atlanta has control of the Eastern Conference with a 4.5-game lead, the rest of the conference is wide open with the other five teams separated by a total of just 2.5 games. Tonight, the bottom two face off as Chicago is a game out of second place while Connecticut is only a game and a half behind the Sky. Obviously, this is a big game for both sides but it is definitely more important for the Sun as a win here gets them right back in the mix. They have lost five of their last six games but four of those losses were on the road while the one home game was a loss against Minnesota. Going back, the schedule has been tough for Connecticut nine of its last 11 games have been on the highway with the two home games both being against Western Conference teams. The Sun are 0-4 straight up and against the number in their last four home games and are underdogs because of it so the value is on their side. Chicago has won two straight but both of those games were at home and it has struggled on the road this season, going 4-9 overall including losses in six of its last seven games on the highway. The Sky are 2-5 ATS on the road against teams with a losing record while going 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 44 percent shooting or higher. Additionally, Chicago is 3-10 ATS in its 13 games after scoring 75 points or more this season while Connecticut is 9-1 ATS after allowing 70 points or more in four straight games this season. 10* (606) Connecticut Sun |
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08-04-14 | Cincinnati Reds +185 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Cincinnati won three of four games over the weekend in Miami to move back to over .500 and sit four and a half games behind Milwaukee in the National League Central. The Reds have had their share of struggles on the road but they have had success at this price, going 5-2 over their last seven games as underdogs between +151 and +200. Cleveland comes in after sweeping Texas in its three-game series and comes in with an identical record as Cincinnati. Granted, the Indians have been very strong at home and do have a great starter going tonight but this line is simply way too high against a quality opponent and a quality starter. That opposing starter is Alfredo Simon and even though he is riding a three-game losing streak, he has pitched good enough to win as his ERA is 3.86 over that stretch. Overall, he has a 2.84 ERA over 21 starts and that improves to a 2.45 ERA in 11 road starts with the Reds going 9-2 in those games. This is the biggest underdog price he has seen this season so that alone adds value to it. Corey Kluber has been great this season once again but his numbers are not that much better than those of Simon. He has a 2.61 ERA in 23 starts with the Indians going 14-9 in those games. He is coming off two straight games of going nine innings of allowing no earned runs and that is certainly playing into this number. Those back-to-back games set up a great go against and the Indians have dropped four of five series opening starts from Kluber. 10* (909) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-01-14 | B.C. Lions +5.5 v. Calgary Stampeders | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 29 m | Show |
There are a handful of teams in the CFL that have gotten off to disappointing starts and British Columbia is one of those. The Lions fell to 2-3 on the season after losing at home against Winnipeg this past weekend but this team is still better than its record indicates. Against the Blue Bombers, Kevin Glenn threw two picks in enemy territory while the offensive line took too many penalties and allowed six sacks on Glenn. British Columbia is outgaining opponents by 67.8 ypg and it is ranked 2nd in the league in both total offense and total defense which is a sure taker sign when getting a lot of points. We played on Calgary last week as it took care of the only other remaining undefeated team in Edmonton and we will be going against the Stampeders for much of the same reasoning as with any undefeated team comes overvalue. Calgary has been outgained in two of its last three games and while those were on the road, the only home teams it has played has been from the Eastern Conference. The Stampeders will again be without the services of running back Jon Cornish as the CFL's reigning most outstanding player is still out with a concussion. This is a big game for both sides but more so for the Lions as it cannot afford to fall further down in the standings. British Columbia s 26-11 ATS in its last 37 games off an upset loss as a home favorite and falls into a superior situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, in the first half of the season. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (425) British Columbia Lions |
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08-01-14 | Toronto Argonauts +3 v. Montreal Alouettes | Top | 31-5 | Win | 100 | 97 h 29 m | Show |
Both Toronto and Montreal got pounded in their last game and they come in with just one win each. The Argonauts lost at Saskatchewan last week by 28 points to fall to 1-4 on the season. That was a difficult spot as it was an early season revenge game for the Roughriders and even with that, Toronto outgained them by 43 yards but it was done in by four turnovers. Toronto has lost three straight games but it has won the yardage battle in all three of those contests which suggests that this is a team we can buy low. This is the third straight road game for Toronto which is never ideal but it will certainly be focused. Montreal is coming off its bye week after losing at British Columbia by 36 points the previous week. At 1-3, the Alouettes are currently in a tie for first place in the Eastern Conference which shows the overall weakness of it. To its credit, Montreal has played much better at home than on the road but until it can find some stability at quarterback, this team is not going far. Toronto has been in the same boat at the pivot but Ricky Ray is a proven veteran and future hall of famer so he will break out of his slump and this is the perfect opponent to do it against. The Argonauts fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs or pickems after a loss by 20 or more points. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) over the last five seasons. The road team won all four meetings last season and Toronto is 5-1 ATS the last six meetings here so I expect this year to open the same way. 10* (423) Toronto Argonauts |
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07-31-14 | Phoenix Mercury v. Minnesota Lynx +1 | Top | 67-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
If there is one team that can end this ridiculous streak that Phoenix is currently on, it is Minnesota. The Mercury have won 16 consecutive games and even more impressive is the fact that the last 11 victories have all been by double digits and that streak is a WNBA record. Phoenix has covered 11 straight games and not many will be stepping in front of that but we will. Minnesota is only two and a half games behind the Mercury in the Western Conference standings which shows how good its season has been as well. The Lynx have won seven straight games and they bring in a 12-1 home record into Thursday and one guess who that lone loss came against. Minnesota will be out for some revenge tonight and it is actually double revenge as the Mercury have beaten the Lynx twice this season after losing the previous 14 matchups between the two teams. The Lynx were without forward Rebekkah Brunson in both of those losses, who was recovering from knee surgery, while guard Seimone Augustus missed the second loss because of bursitis in her left knee. Both are back and healthy for this one. This game could go a long way in deciding who wins the conference, and thus, home court advantage throughout the postseason. Minnesota is 12-3 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points and it falls into a fantastic situation where we play on favorites that are revenging a loss versus opponent by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1997. The streak comes to an end tonight. 10* (602) Minnesota Lynx |
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07-31-14 | Winnipeg Blue Bombers v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -3 | Top | 27-26 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
Hamilton came through for us last week as it picked up its first win of the season, defeating Ottawa by 10 points in its first home game of the season. I like the Tiger Cats to carry that over into this week as they once again find themselves in a very solid spot and are again undervalued. Despite being just 1-3, they are outgaining opponents by an average of 13.6 ypg which is pretty small but the fact they are on the plus side is telling us something. And that something is that the loses have been due to other factors including turnovers and penalties. Winnipeg meanwhile has been just the opposite. The Blue Bombers are coming off their fourth win of the season as they upset British Columbia but it was also their third straight game of getting outyarded. On the season, Winnipeg has been outgained by an average of 21.8 ypg and as is the case with Hamilton, the wins have been due to other factors and it is something that cannot keep going at this rate. Winnipeg has had one extra day of rest but that is negated by the travel factor as it is coming across country while the Tiger Cats remain at home. The Blue Bombers are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win while the Tiger Cats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. They also fall into a solid situation where we play against teams after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 52-20 ATS (72.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (422) Hamilton Tiger Cats |
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07-30-14 | New York Yankees v. Texas Rangers +135 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 135 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Texas dropped a wild one last night as it lost a 4-1 lead only to nearly rally from a 10-4 deficit. It has been that type of season for the Rangers but even with the loss on Tuesday, it gives them something to carry over into tonight as there is still plenty of fight left. They are now 2-3 on this homestand which is certainly an improvement from a 0-8 run in their previous eight home games. The Yankees snapped their three-game losing streak with the victory last night and it needed every run possible as the pitching once again was a letdown. There is no sign of an improvement coming tonight despite what some may think in this matchup. The Yankees are 8-20 in their last 28 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Tonight they send Hiroki Kuroda to the hill and while he has been good the majority of the time as 12 of his 21 starts have been quality outings, this is the type of situation he and his team have struggled in. He has a 3.88 ERA on the road but New York is 4-6 in his 10 road starts and it only gets worse. The Yankees are 2-8 in his last 10 starts as a road favorite of -125 to -175 while going 5-12 in his last 17 road starts when playing against a team with a losing record. Colby Lewis gets the call for the Rangers and talk about a rough season. His 6.23 ERA says it all but surprisingly, Texas has gone a respectable 8-10 in his 18 starts and he has looked better of late. His start against the Angles notwithstanding, he has allowed three runs or less four times in his last five starts and that includes a solid effort at York last week against the Yankees. The Rangers are 6-1 in Lewis' last seven starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. 10* (976) Texas Rangers |
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07-30-14 | Milwaukee Brewers +167 v. Tampa Bay Rays | Top | 5-0 | Win | 167 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
These are two teams that have gone in opposite directions. Since June 25th, Tampa Bay has gone 21-6 in its 27 games and over the same span, the Brewers have gone 12-16 which is 9.5-game difference. Because of that, coupled with the starting pitching matchup, the Rays are laying a huge price Wednesday afternoon and it is simply too big in my opinion. This is a true contrarian play on Milwaukee based on the recent team runs and the pitching runs. While the Brewers have struggled, they are still a solid 8-2 in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record. Tampa Bay is back in the hunt in the Wild Card chase but it is still under .500 overall on the season. David Price demands large moneylines and deservedly so as the Rays have won his last six starts and going back, he has tossed 11 straight quality outings. Six of those have come at home but Tampa Bay is just 3-3 in those games and overall it has lost money in his home starts despite going 7-5. Yovani Gallardo has had a solid season for the most part as 14 of his 21 starts have been quality outings including six of nine on the road. Like Price, he is typically tagged with a large favorite line and he has been an underdog of +140 or more only twice and the Brewers won both games. However, they have dropped his last six starts which is upping the number and adding to the value. His best work this season has come during the day, opposite of Price, where he has a 2.65 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and the situation is a great one. The Brewers are 15-4 in his last 19 road starts when playing against a team with a losing record while going 16-3 in his last 19 road starts after he allowed no earned runs last outing. 10* (979) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-29-14 | Washington Mystics v. New York Liberty -2.5 | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
New York returns home following a 2-1 roadtrip but it was the last game that should have the Liberty pretty fired up tonight as they lost at Phoenix by 15 points this past Saturday. Winning twice on the road prior to that was a surprise considering New York was 1-8 over its first nine road games on the season. The Liberty are 7-5 at home and they have to take advantage of this game because they hit the road for three more consecutive road games starting on Thursday. They are just two games out of second place in the Eastern Conference but are also only a half-game out of falling out of the final playoff spot so each game has huge importance. Washington has caught fire, winning four straight games and six of its last seven to get to .500 on the season and take over second place in the Eastern Conference. The Mystics have failed to cover only once over this stretch and that was by less than a bucket at Phoenix so while they have been cashing in the past, it sets up good future opportunities with line value. Washington is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games while New York is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 home games following a loss by 15 points or more. Additionally, the Liberty fall into a great situation where we play on home teams in the second half of the season coming off a road loss by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499. This situation is 58-28 ATS (67.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (654) New York Liberty |
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07-26-14 | Ottawa Redblacks v. Hamilton Tiger-Cats -4.5 | Top | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 85 h 22 m | Show |
We won with Ottawa last week as it defeated Toronto at home for the first win for the new RedBlacks franchise. They were arguably pretty fortunate for the victory as they won by just one points and were outgained by 58 total yards but a win is a win and that sets up a great play against opportunity here. The RedBlacks were at a huge advantage last week as they were playing their first ever home game and it was a pretty incredible scene but now they hit the road where there are still plenty of issues to fix. They haven't scored a touchdown in more than six quarters and against the Argonauts, four of their six field goals came from less than 30 yards, including the game-winner with 28 seconds remaining. Hamilton meanwhile is off to a 0-3 start but it has played good enough to win the last two weeks as it has covered both games. The Tiger Cats got a bad scheduling break to start the season as not only were their first three games on the road, they all came against Western Conference opponents. They are now in last place in the Eastern Conference but a win here can change everything. Hamilton could move into first place with a win believe it or not as Ottawa currently hold that spot down despite being 1-2. the victory would make it three teams sitting at 1-3 and with 1-3 Toronto at Saskatchewan in a revenge game, the Argonauts could very well be 1-4 after the weekend. And if any more motivation is necessary, the Tiger Cats face their former quarterback in Henry Burris who bolted after spending two years in Hamilton. Going back, the Tiger Cats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss including 2-0 ATS this season and they grab their first victory of 2014. 10* (126) Hamilton Tiger Cats |
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07-26-14 | Los Angeles Sparks v. Seattle Storm +4.5 | Top | 77-69 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Seattle lost for us two games back as it was defeated in overtime against New York making it four straight losses for the Storm. Seattle has had a tough season with some transition and injuries early on taking their toll. It is 9-17 overall but a respectable 5-6 at home despite three straight losses. While they have struggled against some poor teams, they catch Los Angeles at a good time. The Sparks season can be considered much more disappointing as they are 10-14 following very lofty expectations coming in. Los Angeles fired coach Carol Ross over the All-Star break and the team's general manager and executive vice president Penny Toler took over and the thought was that was going to give this team some motivation for a playoff push but that has not been the case. The Sparks lost to New York as a big favorite and then got crushed by Phoenix by 20 points on Thursday. Talk of giving up on he season at this point is not out of the realm of possibility. Lets put this line in perspective. Two games back, Seattle was getting 6.5 points against Phoenix, currently sitting atop the league with a 20-3 record and now the Storm are getting just 2.5 points less against 10-14 Los Angeles. A 10.5-game difference between those two opponents does not translate to such a small line differential. Seattle is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games while Los Angeles is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games after playing a game as a home underdog. 10* (602) Seattle Storm |
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07-25-14 | Tulsa Shock +4 v. Washington Mystics | Top | 77-82 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Washington defeated Connecticut by 14 points Tuesday afternoon in its first game after the All-Star break and it is picking up the intensity at the right time. Despite being two games under .500, the Mystics are tied with Indiana for second place in the very weak Eastern Conference. They have now won four of their last five games but even with the home win against the Sun, they are just 5-7 at home on the season. This is the final game for Washington against the Western Conference where it has gone 4-7 through the first 11 games. The Shock closed the first half with a much needed win against San Antonio which snapped a five-game losing streak but it was unable to keep the momentum rolling as it lost the second game of the home-and-home by a bucket on Tuesday. Tulsa is just 4-12 within its own conference this season but it is a much more respectable 4-4 against foes from the Eastern Conference. The Shock are 9-4 ATS this season as underdogs of three or more points and they have gone 4-2 ATS on the road against teams with losing records. Additionally, they have thrived in these spots going 7-1 ATS this season coming off a road loss while going 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following consecutive games of allowing 50 percent shooting or higher. Look for Tulsa to once again compete well against a team from the Eastern Conference. 10* (651) Tulsa Shock |
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07-24-14 | New York Liberty v. Seattle Storm -4.5 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
The Liberty burned us last night as they defeated Los Angeles outright but I do not see a similar effort tonight as this presents a good letdown opportunity. That was just the second road win for New York on the entire season and its 2-8 record on the highway is the worst in the league. The Liberty are a solid 6-3 over their last nine games but seven of those games were at home and they obviously have not won consecutive road games all season. It goes back even further as New York has won consecutive road games only twice since early in the 2011 season, going a horrendous 2-15 in road games following a win in its previous road game. The Storm have dropped three straight games heading into this one which sets up a great bounce back opportunity. Seattle has had a tough season with some transition and injuries early on taking their toll. It is 9-16 overall but a respectable 5-5 at home despite two straight losses. To the Storm's credit, two of their home wins have come against Minnesota and while they have struggled against some poor teams, they catch New York at the right time. Seattle falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games against the spread, with a losing record after 15 or more games. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1997. Additionally, Seattle is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. 10* (602) Seattle Storm |
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07-24-14 | Calgary Stampeders +1 v. Edmonton Eskimos | Top | 26-22 | Win | 100 | 39 h 22 m | Show |
Edmonton is the biggest surprise of the season thus far in the CFL as it is off to a 4-0 start, one of two remaining undefeated teams. It kept the record intact with a big win at Winnipeg last week but I expect the run to end this week. After picking up a big upset win at British Columbia in Week One, the Eskimos have not played the best of competition the last three weeks but that changes here. Defeating Ottawa and Hamilton at home were far from upsets and the Blue Bombers should come to reality as well. Calgary is the only other undefeated team in the league sitting at 3-0 and it is coming off a closer than expected win over Hamilton last week as it won at home by just a 10-7 score. That narrow win should have the Stampeders very focused this week and facing the only other undefeated team will have them more than ready as well. Calgary has owned this series with seven straight wins and while this is the best Edmonton team it has seen over that stretch, I think the talent gap is still pretty big. This is the first meeting in the Battle of Alberta which is a huge rivalry so the Eskimos will be sky high as well in trying to end the losing skid in this series but they will not have enough to matchup. The defense of the Stampeders will prove that as they have allowed just one touchdown over the first three games and this will be the toughest test quarterback Mike Reilly has seen so far. The Stampeders fall into a great situation as we play against teams after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 51-19 ATS (72.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (121) Calgary Stampeders |
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07-24-14 | Chicago White Sox +143 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 143 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
The White Sox head to Minnesota to try and snap a five-game losing skid against the Twins and this is a great spot for it to happen. Chicago comes in with the better record by two games yet comes in as a hefty underdog for no real apparent reason. The home/road splits are not that far off and the starting pitching matchup, which would have favored Minnesota early in the season, has skewed the other way now. The Twins have dropped four of their five home games since the All Star break and are now four games under .500 at home. Chicago has struggled on the road all season but it is 6-4 over its last 10 games on the highway. The Twins used to have an edge with Phil Hughes on the hill but that is no longer the case. After posting 10 quality starts in an 11-game span, he has blown up to put up a 6.34 ERA over his last six starts. In two starts against the White Sox this season, he has allowed nine runs in 10 combined innings. Chicago counters with Hector Noesi and while he has been inconsistent, he is coming off a quality outing in his first start after the All Star break. He has struggled mightily during the day, going 1-5 with a 6.88 ERA but that ERA falls to 4.25 at night with the White Sox going 6-3 in his nine starts under the lights. Additionally, Minnesota is 11-35 in its last 46 home games against the money line in the second half of the season against American League teams scoring 4.7 or less rpg. 10* (967) Chicago White Sox |
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07-23-14 | New York Liberty v. Los Angeles Sparks -7.5 | Top | 66-64 | Loss | -104 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
Playing on teams in their first game with a new coach is often a great angle and that can certainly be the case in the WNBA as well. The Sparks let head coach Carol Ross go over the weekend and the team's general manager and executive vice president Penny Toler will take over for the remainder of the season. A season of inconsistency led to the change despite Los Angeles being right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race. The Sparks are currently in fourth place with a two-game cushion but I expect a huge effort from them with a new leader on the sidelines as it often provides huge motivation. The Sparks won three in a row to close a four-game road trip before falling 79-75 to Washington at home before the All-Star break. New York is coming off an upset win over Atlanta in its last game and it is just a half-game out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Liberty have been solid at home but dreadful on the road with a 1-8 record and they have dropped seven straight road games against the number. New York is 0-6 ATS this season on the road against teams averaging 73 or more ppg while going 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games coming off a win as an underdog. Two situation favor Los Angeles as well. First, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 70 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after a win by six points or less. This situation is 67-30 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1997. Second, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a home win with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 on the season. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (654) Los Angeles Sparks |
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07-23-14 | Houston Astros +233 v. Oakland A's | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
While the Astros remain a work in progress, they have been playing pretty decent over the last couple months. After a 17-32 start, Houston is 24-26 over its last 50 games since May 24th and while that may seem below average, considering the fact it has been an underdog almost every game, that is very solid. The Astros has been just as good on the road as they have been at home so there is no drop off and at a number like this, the value is huge. Oakland continues to hold the lead in the American League West over the Angels and its +150 run differential is by far the best in baseball. The A's are doing it with both offense and pitching but it is the latter we need to keep a close eye on especially the starter for Wednesday. Jesse Chavez came out of nowhere as he entered the starting rotation after years in the bullpen and has dominated with a 3.14 ERA in 19 starts and that ERA drops to 2.13 at home in eight starts. Fatigue is the issue however. Chavez has exactly doubled his innings pitched from last season and he has already thrown more innings this season than in 2011, 2012 and 2013 combined. His last four starts may be the sign to come as he has a 4.99 ERA over that stretch with just one quality outing. The Astros counter with Brad Peacock who is making his first start since going just a third of an inning against Boston as he threw only 27 pitches and allowed only one run but was mysteriously pulled. It gave him extra time off and he should be ready to go to add to his solid season on the road where he has a 3.12 ERA over four starts. He has never allowed more than three runs in five career starts against the A's. 10* (921) Houston Astros |
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07-23-14 | Washington Nationals v. Colorado Rockies +155 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 155 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Washington has come strong out of the All Star break as it has won three of four games heading into Tuesday night action. The Nationals hold a one game lead over Atlanta in the National League East which has turned into a two-team race. The Nationals are a game over .500 on the road and that does not correlate to them being a big road favorite here but the name of the pitcher is in fact doing that. Stephen Strasburg is the pitcher we are referring to and he continues to be overvalued despite pretty pedestrian numbers. He has a 3.55 ERA and 1.22 WHIP which are certainly decent but he is just 7-7 with Washington going just 11-10 in his 21 starts. His numbers on the road dip substantially to a 4.92 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with just five of nine starts being quality outings. The Nationals are just 2-5 in his last seven starts and to no surprise, he was favored in all of those. Colorado closed the first half with losses in two straight games and time off did not help as it opened the second half with four straight losses. The first three came on the road and the Rockies are still much better at home despite a slight losing record. Jorge De La Rosa has improved following a horrid June as he has posted a 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three July starts, all being quality outings. He has a 3.49 ERA in nine home starts with Colorado going 7-2 in those games and going back, the Rockies are an incredible 43-8 in De La Rosa's last 51 home starts. 10* (904) Colorado Rockies |
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07-22-14 | Tulsa Shock v. San Antonio Silver Stars -4 | Top | 93-95 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is the second game of a home-and-home with the first taking place right before the All Star break. Tulsa won that game by five points which snapped a five-game losing streak and now it will be up to San Antonio to snap its own skid. The Stars have dropped three straight games to fall a game under .500 on the season but they still sit in third place in the Western Conference. With San Antonio winning two of the first three games of this season series, this is a big game for the home side as Tulsa is three games behind San Antonio and the Stars would win the season series tiebreaker with a victory. Tulsa is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games after scoring 70 or more points in five straight games while going 1-7 ATS in its last eight games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Stars are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a losing record and they have two great situations on their side. We play on favorites in the second half of the season that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) since 1997. Second, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 70 points or more in three straight games going up against an opponent after a win by six points or less. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (602) San Antonio Stars |
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07-19-14 | Montreal Alouettes v. B.C. Lions -6.5 | Top | 5-41 | Win | 100 | 37 h 53 m | Show |
We won with British Columbia last week and we will be backing the Lions again even as they go from a big underdog to a big favorite. After a 0-2 start, we expected the Lions to come back and avoid the 0-3 start and they did it without much trouble as they jumped ahead only to lose the lead but then pulled away at the end. That victory should give British Columbia come much needed momentum and there will be no lack of motivation here. The Lions lost their first game of the season at home against Edmonton and you have to go all the way back to early 2011 to find the last time they lost two straight home games. Since then, they are 23-4 over their last 27 games at home including the first loss to the Eskimos this year. Additionally, the Lions will be out for revenge as they went to Montreal and were defeated by 15 points while getting outgained by 122 total yards. Montreal is also off to a 1-2 start this season as it opened with a loss, bounced back with a win and then lost again last week. I don't see the bounce back this week though as the Alouettes only road game came in that opener at Calgary and they were crushed by 21 points and outgained by 215 total yards. Quarterback Troy Smith put together his best game of the season but I don't see it continuing here while on the other side, I fully expect Kevin Glenn to have his breakout game this week. Montreal is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 road games against defenses allowing 6.9 or less passing ypa and it is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 meetings in British Columbia. 10* (428) British Columbia Lions |
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07-19-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals +125 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 125 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
St. Louis won the opener of this series last night and it remains just one game behind the Brewers in the National League Central. The Cardinals improved to 28-20 at home and they come in as a home underdog today because of the pitching matchup but it sets up well. St. Louis is 13-3 in its last 16 games as a home underdog. The Dodgers went into the All-Star break with a one game lead in the National League West but their loss coupled with a Giants win has them back in a tie for the divisional lead. They remain solid on the road but they have gone 2-5 in their last seven road games against teams with a winning record. They turn to Zack Greinke who is having another great season with a 2.73 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and while his team has been solid for him at home with a 6-2 record, the Dodgers are just 5-6 in his 11 road starts and it has been worse of late as they are 1-5 in Greinke's last six road starts. The Cardinals counter with Joe Kelly who had a rough outing in his last start which was his first since April due to a hamstring strain. He allowed six runs in just three innings but I expect a big rebound here. Going back to last season, the Cardinals are 6-0 in Kelly's last six home starts against teams with a winning record. In three home starts against the Dodgers, Kelly has a 2.60 ERA. 10* (902) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-18-14 | Toronto Argonauts v. Ottawa Redblacks +2 | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
After starting the season with a bye on opening week, Ottawa has played its first two games of the season on the road and bow the RedBlacks are prepared to make their historical debut back to Ottawa. Losses in the first two games against Winnipeg and Edmonton were frustrating by the fact that Ottawa actually led both games at halftime but could not put together a full game either time. Playing on their home field for the first time since 2005, this RedBlacks team should be full of confidence knowing they can compete. Toronto lost its season opener at Winnipeg but bounced back nicely against Saskatchewan in Week Two only to give it back last week against Calgary, losing by 19 points. The Argonauts actually outgained the Stampeders by 78 total yards but they were unable to find any success in the redzone as they had to settle for five field goals. Things have not been great offensively for Ottawa either. Since scoring three touchdowns in their very first quarter of play, when nobody had any idea of their schemes and tendencies, the RedBlacks have crossed the goal line just once in their last seven quarters. I expect the energy of the home crowd to be a huge edge on Friday. Making matters worse for Toronto, it is unlikely wide receiver Jason Barnes returns this week from a knee injury while their top receiver Chad Owens was hurt against Calgary and is in a walking book suggesting he will be missing time as well. The RedBlacks will have the big home field edge here and I expect that to turn into the first victory for the CFL's new franchise. 10* (424) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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07-17-14 | Washington Mystics v. Los Angeles Sparks -7 | Top | 79-75 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Los Angeles is riding a three-game winning streak, its longest of the season, and it will be out to keep that momentum going and go into the break with a .500 record. The Sparks have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season after finishing 24-10 so they have already surpassed their loss total from a season ago. They have not been at .500 since June 6th as they have been unable to piece together any sort of winning streak until now and we will continue to ride that drive. The Sparks are tied for the league's worst home record at 3-6, but have won five in a row against the Mystics in Los Angeles. Washington opener the season 4-2 but it is just 5-11 since then including a loss last time out at Phoenix. They Mystics have been respectable on the road at 5-6 but they are catching los Angeles at the wrong time as the host is also in a solid revenge situation as we play on favorites that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 in the second half of the season. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1997. Also, we play against underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging between 72-76 against teams allowing 76 or more, after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (658) Los Angeles Sparks |
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07-17-14 | Chicago Sky v. Indiana Fever -4 | Top | 64-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
After seven straight losing seasons to open its franchise, Chicago had an incredible turnaround last season, finishing 24-10 and winning the Eastern Conference by seven games over Atlanta and Washington. It didn't do much good as the Sky were swept by Indiana in the best-of-three Conference Semifinals by 13 and 22 points. Now reality has set back in as Chicago is 8-13 which includes losses in five straight games. Injuries have played a big role as most recently, Elena Delle Donne has missed the last six games with a flare-up of Lyme Disease and she has played just once over the last 12 games. Chicago is 2-9 in those games she has been absent. After a 4-1 run, Indiana has dropped two straight games, both coming at home and the Fever have now lost six of their last seven games at home after winning their previous three. Indiana could use a boost prior to the break and it can add to its 7-2 ATS run following a cover loss and pick up a much needed victory in front of their home fans. Here we play on home favorites after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 in the second half of the season. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 1997. Additionally, Chicago is 0-10 ATS after allowing 80 points or more this season. 10* (654) Indiana Fever |
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07-17-14 | San Antonio Silver Stars v. Tulsa Shock -1.5 | Top | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
**Note 12:35 PM ET start time** We lost with Tulsa yesterday as it was covering practically the entire game until the end when Minnesota pulled away to get the ATS win by a bucket. The Shock head home for the final game before the All-Star break as they look to break out of a five-game losing streak, both straight up and against the number. Even more so, Tulsa will be looking to bust out of its home losing streak which has reached six games after the most recent loss to Washington last Saturday. The fact the Shock are favorites here may seem unrealistic to some because of the skid but that line is definitely telling us something. San Antonio has lost its last two games after winning four of its previous five. The Silver Stars have had a solid turnaround as they are 11-11 after winning only 12 games last season and they can thank the road success as they already have three more wins on the highway than they did all of last season. San Antonio is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games following a loss of 20 or more points and Tulsa falls into a great contrarian situation where we play on favorites that have failed to cover six or seven of their last eight games against the spread, with a losing record in the second half of the season. This situation is 60-28 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (652) Tulsa Shock |
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07-16-14 | Tulsa Shock +9 v. Minnesota Lynx | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
***Note 1:05 PM ET Start** Tulsa and Minnesota head into the All-Star break heading in total opposite directions. The Shock are coming off a four-game homestand where they lost all four games and failed to cover any of those. That makes it seven losses over the last eight games and Tulsa gone from a respectable 6-7 on the season to 7-14 going into Wednesday. Minnesota meanwhile is riding a three-game winning streak, covering all of those games along the way. The Lynx are 16-6 overall including 9-1 at home and trail Phoenix by a game and a half in the Western Conference so it comes as no surprise they re such big favorites here. The problem is Minnesota has not been covering the bigger numbers as it is 4-9 ATS this season as a favorite of five or more points while Tulsa is 8-3 ATS as an underdog of three or more points. The Lynx have won both meetings against the Shock this season, both coming on the road including the latest last week by just six points. Here we play against teams that have between a +3 to +7 ppg scoring differential going up against an opponent that has a +/- 3 ppg scoring differential, after scoring 70 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 72-44 ATS (62.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Tulsa is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons while going 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after allowing 90 points or more. The Lynx will be without second leading scorer Seimone Augustus who has been sitting with a knee injury and she will be rested through the break which is a smart long term move for the team. 10* (603) Tulsa Shock |
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07-15-14 | LA Sparks v. Indiana Fever +2.5 | Top | 86-78 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Los Angeles has won its last two games and in dominating fashion but it has yet to win three straight games on the season as it failed in its only other try. The Sparks defense has led the way of late, holding New York to 38.3 percent from the floor in a 14-point victory on Friday and Connecticut to 34.2 percent shooting in Sunday's 26-point victory. The Sparks covered both games easily and while they have not won three straight outright, they have not covered three straight either. That has been a big issue going back as Los Angeles is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win. Indiana was starting to put a nice run together as it has won four of five games to open the month but lost last time out against Atlanta as it was blown out at home by 19 points against the top team in the Eastern Conference. The Fever had dropped four straight home games before defeating Connecticut on Thursday prior to that Atlanta loss so they will be out once again to get back their home court edge. Since June 20th, Indiana is 0-3 ATS as a favorite but a solid 6-2 ATS as an underdog with the tow losses coming against Atlanta. Additionally, the Fever are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss. 10* (654) Indiana Fever |
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07-12-14 | B.C. Lions +6 v. Saskatchewan Roughriders | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
British Columbia was upset at home by Edmonton in its season opener by a touchdown and it was unable to bounce back as the Lions were clobbered at Montreal last week by 15 points. The Lions came into the season as one of the top teams to contend for the Grey Cup and while we are just two games in, this has turned into a big game for them as they look to avoid a three-game losing streak which happened once last season. It came late in the regular season and killed the momentum of a great start and ultimately left them in third place in the Western Conference where they then had to go on the road in the playoffs only to lose to Saskatchewan. This isn't a do-or-die situation by any stretch but British Columbia can not let this get out of control too much. We played against the Roughriders last week in Toronto and cashed and while they too will be in bounceback mode, they are getting too much credit with this line and they could not be facing an opponent at the worst time. Saskatchewan dispatched of Hamilton without much of a problem in its season opener but it takes a big step up in class here despite what the record is saying. This is a revenge game for the Lions following last season's first round playoff loss and it is actually a triple revenge spot after losing the final two regular season games on top of that. British Columbia was getting four points in the two games played here so we are getting a much bigger number thanks to the 0-2 start and we will gladly take it. The Roughriders are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (127) British Columbia Lions |
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07-11-14 | Phoenix Mercury v. Chicago Sky +5 | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Phoenix heads to Chicago with the best record in the WNBA at 14-3 which includes wins in eight straight games. The Mercury are 7-2 on the road but a lot of those wins have not been easy with four coming by five points or less and another coming in overtime. They are outscoring opponents by 4.0 ppg on the highway and they are 1-4 ATS when favored by 4.5 or more points. Additionally, Phoenix is 1-4 ATS this season on the road against teams with a losing record. Chicago is heading in the opposite direction as it has dropped its last three games to fall three games under .500 for the season. The Sky have also lost their last three home games as well as five of their last six at Allstate Arena but that presents us with significant value tonight. They have been a home underdog twice on the season and they have won and covered both of those contests. Chicago is playing with a quick revenge situation as well as it got thumped at Phoenix by 18 points nine days ago. Look for the Sky to put together a big effort tonight and stopping the Mercury winning streak is not out of the question at all. 10* (606) Chicago Sky |
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07-11-14 | Winnipeg Blue Bombers v. Montreal Alouettes -2.5 | Top | 34-33 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
As of Tuesday, this line is anywhere from -1 to -3 but the short price should not even come into play. Winnipeg enters this game a perfect 2-0, one of only two undefeated teams through two games and surprisingly it is from the two worst teams in the league a season ago. The Blue Bombers won three games all of last season so the turnaround is surprising but they have been fortunate. They caught Toronto on a horrible night as the Argonauts killed themselves with penalties and turnovers and we saw what they are capable of when they defeated Saskatchewan last week. In the second game, Winnipeg hosted the expansion Ottawa RedBlacks which was their first game of the season so that was a big scheduling break. Now the Blue Bombers hit the road for the first time this season and not in a very good spot. Montreal opened the season by getting thumped at Calgary 29-8 but turned the tables at home last week as it defeated British Columbia 24-9. the yardage totals backed up those scores as well and it seems fitting for the Alouettes to carry that momentum into Friday in the second of back-to-back home games prior to a revenge game at British Columbia for the Lions next week. Last week, the Blue Bombers came back from a 25-20 deficit through three quarters which was the first time since 2012 they won a game when trailing going into the fourth quarter so that certainly gives them some confidence but it won't be enough hitting the road for the first time. Going back to last season, the Blue Bombers are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a win while the Alouettes are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record. 10* (122) Montreal Alouettes |
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07-10-14 | Connecticut Sun +5.5 v. Indiana Fever | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
***Note 12:05 PM ET Start*** Both Connecticut and Indiana played on Tuesday with differing results as the Sun got smashed at Atlanta while the Fever hung on to defeat Tulsa by a bucket. Now the Fever head back home where the home floor has been very below average as they have dropped four straight and while most were close, they are getting overadjusted with this line. Part of the reason could be the fact the home team has absolutely dominated the first three meetings this season as the host has won by 14, 17 and 22 points. That however does not make this another blowout situation. Being such an early start, it decreases the value of the home court as well. The Sun have lost five of their last six games to fall to two games under .500 but it can still be considered a successful season thus far after totally revamping their roster. Still, Connecticut is just a game out of second place in the Eastern Conference so the playoffs are certainly the goal at this point. It will have to improve offensively as Connecticut is averaging 71.8 ppg during the 1-5 stretch after previously averaging 77.8 ppg through its first 14 games. The Sun have been a solid bounceback team as they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss. 10* (651) Connecticut Sun |
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07-08-14 | Indiana Fever v. Tulsa Shock -3 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
We played against Tulsa on Saturday and won as the Shock were in a tough spot playing a revenge minded Connecticut team that they just waxed on the road two days earlier. They are now 4-4 at home which includes three straight losses but all of those have been close as they have all come by three points or fewer including one on overtime. Going back, the other home loss came in the home opener against Minnesota by just a point so a few bounces its way and Tulsa could have a seriously strong home record. Indian comes in at 8-10 following a Saturday loss at home against San Antonio and that made it four straight home losses for the Fever. It has been a different story on the road as they have won two straight and three of their last four games on the highway and I feel that is definitely helping out with the value. Indiana had won seven straight meetings in this series before Tulsa pulled off the road upset last month so while the Fever will be in revenge mode, it will be the Shock that will be very hungry to get back to their winning ways at home. Both teams have been solid coming off a loss but we give the edge to the home team in laying the short number. 10* (654) Tulsa Shock |
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07-06-14 | Phoenix Mercury v. Los Angeles Sparks +2.5 | Top | 94-89 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
While it has been a very disappointing season for the Sparks, they have been playing better of late with wins in thee of their last four games and this is a statement game for them that could go a long way in making a serious playoff push. The biggest disappointment for Los Angeles has been its home court advantage, or lack thereof. It is just 3-5 at home after finishing with no more than eight home losses in any of the past three seasons. The Mercury have won six straight and eight of their past nine games and hold the league's best record. This is the best start in franchise history and they will be out to match their longest ever winning streak today. They have won three straight on the road but they have not come easy and they have failed to cover the last two which also happened to be in the role of road favorites. Nneka Ogwumike has paced the Sparks of late as she is averaging 22.6 ppg in her last five games and she missed the first meeting this season with a back injury. In that game, Los Angeles was a six-point favorite and now it is a home underdog which shows we are now getting the Sparks at a premium price. The Mercury are 9-25-2 ATS in their last 36 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (604) Los Angeles Sparks |
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07-05-14 | Connecticut Sun +4 v. Tulsa Shock | Top | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
These teams met in Connecticut two days ago and the Sun got blasted on their home floor by 13 points in a game they only led once by a single point. While road revenge is not a huge angle, it definitely comes into play tonight based on the short turnaround. Going back, Connecticut has lost four straight games after being two games over .500 so this is now a big game especially with eight of the next 10 games after this one taking place on the road and against some very good teams. Tulsa remains three games under .500 for the season but you still have to give the Shock credit. They have won seven games after winning only 11 all of last season but they are still not over the hump to contend. Tulsa has been favored only twice all season, going 1-1 ATS in those games and the result from Thursday is definitely playing into this number. The Sun have been a great bounce back team as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. Meanwhile, the Shock are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record. Connecticut is more than capable of a good game as it the only team in the league to beat the two conference leaders, the Atlanta Dream and Phoenix Mercury. 10* (655) Connecticut Sun |
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07-05-14 | Saskatchewan Roughriders v. Toronto Argonauts +2 | Top | 15-48 | Win | 100 | 54 h 55 m | Show |
Toronto won for us opening week where we played against the Argonauts as they went into Winnipeg and lost to the Blue Bombers by 24 points as a touchdown favorite. I do not expect another dismal performance from Toronto this week however as it heads home in a pretty foul mood. The Argonauts were not necessarily outplayed against Winnipeg as they simply outplayed themselves as they turned the ball over twice but it was the 22 penalties for 169 yards that really did them in. While I was expecting a Winnipeg cover with the possibility of the slight upset, I was not expecting a rout and that only favors Toronto going forward here. Saskatchewan started its Grey Cup defense in fine fashion as it easily took care of Hamilton in its season opener at home last week. Now the Roughriders have to put that behind them and travel cross country to face a team that will be out for redemption after embarrassing itself last week. Saskatchewan is no doubt a solid team and its strong start to last season made it an early season favorite which it was able to cash despite a late regular season collapse. Playing down to the opposition remains a concern as the Roughriders are 7-20 ATS against teams with a losing record and Toronto falls into the same bounce back situation from the other game as we play on underdogs or pickems after a loss by 20 or more points. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. The schedule also sets up well for Toronto as it will have two days more to prepare for this game than Saskatchewan has. Look for the Argonauts to rebound as take their home opener on Saturday. 10* (428) Toronto Argonauts |
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07-04-14 | Hamilton Tiger-Cats +3.5 v. Edmonton Eskimos | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 55 m | Show |
We lost with Hamilton last week as it was unable to avenge its Grey Cup loss from last fall but I like the bounce back situation or this week. The Tiger Cats offense was limited to less than 200 yards of total offense and less than 150 passing yards and while the bad weather can be to blame, it did go both ways. What the weather did do however was make it nearly impossible for a comeback after Hamilton fell behind by a large margin early. Not helping matters was that the Tiger Cats were sacked 10 times and were penalized 17 times for 148 yards. While Hamilton did not come out of the gate very strong, Edmonton did not look like the rebuilding team many were expecting as the Eskimos went into British Columbia and defeated the Lions by seven points as eight-point underdogs. Still, this is a team that is going to struggle as game does not tell us very much and that can actually be said for both sides. The Eskimos certainly gained a lot of confidence after that opening victory but will have their hands full against a team hungry for a win and their home field has not been very strong. Edmonton was only 1-8 at home last season with the lone win coming against Winnipeg, the only team in the CFL to finish with a worse record. Going back, the Eskimos are 2-8 ETS in their last 10 home games. While Hamilton is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game and it falls into a simple yet excellent CFL situation where we play on underdogs or pickems after a loss by 20 or more points. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (425) Hamilton Tiger Cats |
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07-03-14 | Los Angeles Sparks v. Seattle Storm +2 | Top | 70-56 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Seattle is 4-1 in its last five home games with the lone loss coming in overtime against San Antonio so the Storm are close to being unblemished over that stretch. The only other home loss came in their season opener against Los Angeles by 11 points, the first of two losses against the Sparks this season which sets up a double revenge spot for tonight. Seattle lost at Minnesota last time out which was a similar double revenge spot for the Lynx but the Storm were still able to cover that game. Los Angeles is 6-9 on the season which is a huge disappointment with such high expectations coming into the season. The Sparks lost their last game, a seven-point home defeat against Chicago on Tuesday so they are in a quick turnaround while Seattle has had an extra two days to get ready for this one. Seattle has averaged 74 ppg in June after opening the season averaging a league-worst 66.3 ppg in May. That is not good for the opponent as Los Angeles has allowed 89-plus points in each of the last two games. The Sparks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as road favorites with the lone win coming by just a bucket that took overtime to get it done. Seattle is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog including a perfect 2-0 as a home underdog with both wins coming against 12-5 Minnesota. 10* (606) Seattle Storm |
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07-02-14 | Indiana Fever v. Washington Mystics -3 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
It has been a very streaky season for Washington as it opened up 4-2 and then went on a 1-7 slide before winning two of its last three games. The Mystics lost their last game which was at home against San Antonio so we are banking on a bounce back effort here which is a big one considering that their next five games following tonight are all on the road. Indiana meanwhile played just last night and won at Atlanta by seven points as a seven-point underdog so it was a huge upset. That snapped a four-game losing skid for the Fever and it will be tough to put together a similar effort in consecutive nights even though they take a step down in class. They have lost both games this season when playing with no rest and the last instance was the second of back-to-back road games resulting in a 17-point loss at Connecticut after winning the first game which happened to be right here in Washington. This is the fourth game in nine days for Washington but for Indiana, this is its fifth game in eight days so fatigue could play a big factor. The Mystics also fall into a fantastic situation where we play on any team that is revenging a loss versus opponent by three points or less and coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 45-16 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1997. Additionally, Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games when playing with two days rest over the last two seasons while the Fever are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (652) Washington Mystics |
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07-01-14 | SA Silver Stars v. Connecticut Sun -3 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Despite losses in its last two games, Connecticut has had a great turnaround this season as after a 1-5 start, the Sun are 7-3 over their last 10 games. These last two losses have come on the road where they are 1-6 on the season but at home, Connecticut is 7-2 including wins in five straight home games. The Sun have covered all of those games as well and they are once again laying a short price to add to their 4-1 ATS record as favorites, laying no more than four points in any of those games. San Antonio comes in with an identical 8-8 record following a win at Washington on Sunday as an underdog which puts it in a great play against situation. Additionally, the Silver Stars have won their last four road games, all as underdogs, which only adds to the play against spot. While it will either be the home or road streak that comes to an end here, the home team has the advantage based on the overall strength of that league-wide with the host winning close to 60 percent of the time. Connecticut is 7-1 ATS in home games after a conference game this season while going back, it is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss. The Silver Stars are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win while going 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games after playing a road game over the last two seasons. 10* (602) Connecticut Sun |
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06-29-14 | Hamilton Tiger-Cats +6 v. Saskatchewan Roughriders | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 50 m | Show |
Playing against the Grey Cup champions in the opening week of the season is always a great situational angle and it is even more so this season. We played on Hamilton in Week One last season and it fell short against defending Grey Cup Champion Toronto, blowing a big early lead and losing by five points. This season, the Tiger Cats get another shot at taking down the reigning Grey Cup Champion and this one has revenge added to it. Hamilton made the unlikely run in the Eastern Conference as it went 10-8 which came after a 6-12 season in 2012. It was the first winning record since 2004 and the first time it finished with double-digit wins since 2001 so it was certainly a success for Hamilton. The Tiger Cats defeated Montreal and Toronto in the playoffs before getting blasted by Saskatchewan in the Grey Cup by 22 points. This is arguably a better team this time around and they will certainly be out for some payback. Losing quarterback Henry Burris to the expansion Ottawa RedBlacks will hurt but there is plenty of optimism in Zach Collaros who put up solid numbers in Toronto. The Roughriders won their second Grey Cup since 2007 and did so by getting hot at the right time which was in the postseason. After opening 8-1 during the regular season, they stumbled to finish 3-6 over their last nine games and while expectations are undoubtedly high, with that comes pressure. Quarterback Darian Durant is back but the loss of running back Kory Sheets to the NFL is huge as he was second in the CFL with 1,598 yards. Defensively, Saskatchewan lost leading tackler Craig Butler as well. 10* (327) Hamilton Tiger-Cats |
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06-28-14 | Los Angeles Sparks v. Tulsa Shock +1.5 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
We played on los Angeles last Thursday when it hosted the Shock but the situation was much different then. The Sparks were on a four-game winning streak, both straight up and against the number, including two humiliating double-digit losses. They won that game over the Shock pretty easily but now Los Angeles hits the road after a four-game homestand and the highway has not been pretty as it is 2-4 on the season with just one win over its last five games. The Shock meanwhile are riding a two-game winning streak with victories over Chicago and Indiana, both of which came in overtime. That typically suggests a play against spot going forward but that is not the case here as Tulsa is back home following four road games and playing here has had its benefits as the Shock have won four in a row at the BOK Center. This line is no doubt in Tulsa's favor as the fact Los Angeles is favored here is an overadjustment based on name. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a road chalk while Tulsa is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home underdog this season and going back it is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog of six points or less. Additionally, the Sparks are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a win while the Shock are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games revenging a double-digit loss. 10* (602) Tulsa Shock |
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06-27-14 | Phoenix Mercury v. Indiana Fever +4 | Top | 81-76 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Phoenix is riding a three-game winning streak including two wins against Western Conference leader Minnesota and it comes in as a road favorite for the fifth time this season. The Mercury split those first four games against the number and actually lost two of those games outright. The two wins were both double-digit victories but one of those was in overtime in a win at San Antonio. Indiana has dropped its last two games including a home loss against Tulsa on Wednesday in overtime. That halted a three-game home winning streak but the fact the game was just on Wednesday is good as the fire will be there to get it back quickly. Additionally, the Fever dropped both meetings last season by double digits so the revenge factor is in play as well. Here we play on home teams after two or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 115-64 ATS (64.2 percent) since 1997. Meanwhile, Phoenix is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 while Indiana is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 75 points or more in four straight games. 10* (654) Indiana Fever |
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06-26-14 | Toronto Argonauts v. Winnipeg Blue Bombers +5 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
Winnipeg finished with the worst record in the CFL last season and after a 1-1 start, the Blue Bombers went on to lose 14 of their last 16 games. Things should get better this season but it might not be easy playing in the tougher Western Conference but facing a team from the east out of the gates should help. As will the fact that the Blue Bombers have a new head coach in Mike O'Shea who comes in as one of the top coaching prospects in the league. He is the former special teams coordinator in Toronto so his experience there should no doubt help in preparation here. Coming in will be a new quarterback in Drew Wiley and while he lacks a lot of true experience, he is a good fit and has plenty of weapons around him including the signing of free agent receive Nick Moore who was third in the CFL last season in receiving yards with B.C. Defensively, there needs to be improvement but this opening game should not be a huge challenge. Toronto still has a solid quarterback in Ricky Ray but they lost their top two running backs and on the other side, they lost two top starters from a season ago. After winning the Grey Cup in 2012, Toronto could not make it out of the first round of the playoffs last year and there are many questions heading into this season. Winnipeg falls into a great situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a losing record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1996 including a 7-1 ATS mark the last five years. 10* (322) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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06-25-14 | Chicago Sky +2.5 v. Connecticut Sun | Top | 69-79 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
Two teams going in opposite directions square off on Wednesday as Chicago visits Connecticut for the third of four matchups this season. The Sky have been in a freefall as they have dropped six of their last seven games after a 5-1 start to the season. Two of those losses came on the road and both were blowouts as they lost to Atlanta and Washington by 38 and 11 points respectively. There is some good news on the horizon however as Chicago will have Elena Delle Donne and Sylvia Fowles back in the Sky's starting lineup. Delle Donne has not played since that Atlanta game and was virtually ineffective as a bout with Lyme disease clearly had her not healthy as she managed only seven points. She is averaging 22.3 ppg. Fowles has not played this season after offseason hip surgery. She was the WNBA Defensive Player of the Year last season while averaging 16.3 ppg and 11.5 rpg. Both will be limited in minutes but their presences will be huge. Meanwhile, Connecticut has won and covered five straight games after a 2-6 start so it has found its rhythm following a rebuilding of the roster. The Sun are banged up however as depth has taken its toll with some injuries. Because Connecticut is 6-2 at home and laying a short price, we are seeing a lot of the action on the Sun yet the line has dropped and that reverse move is a red flag. Chicago has won six straight and covered seven straight in this series including both meetings this season and I see that continuing here as it gets some confidence with its two best players back on the floor. 10* (653) Chicago Sky |
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06-24-14 | Washington Mystics +5 v. San Antonio Silver Stars | Top | 81-70 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
**Note 12:35 PM ET Start** Washington has lost four straight games including the first three games of this current roadtrip which ends Tuesday afternoon in San Antonio. The Mystics have been able to hang around for the most part but they have not put a complete game together as they have fallen behind in the first half three times while getting blown out in the second half in the game at Atlanta. Washington won its first two road games of the season at Indiana and at Connecticut but has followed that up with four straight losses but we are catching a good number on Tuesday. That is partly due to the San Antonio turnaround as after winning only 12 games all of last season, the Silver Stars have already won seven games this season including three in a row. They have covered all of those games as well including the last two which were close wins on the road. Heading back home may seen like a big edge but San Antonio has not exactly come on strong when it is supposed to as it is 0-2 ATS when favored while going just 1-5 ATS at home overall. Despite a 5-9 record, Washington has been outscored by only 2.5 ppg and I feel this is way too many points for the Silver Stars to be laying down. 10* (601) Washington Mystics |
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06-22-14 | Atlanta Dream v. New York Liberty +4.5 | Top | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
We lost with New York in this first game of this home-and-home series but I am expecting a victory as the Liberty head home on Sunday. As mentioned on Friday, these teams are going in complete opposite directions as New York has lost five straight games and has been unable to cover any of those either. Atlanta meanwhile has won six straight games while covering each of those games as well so both of these runs is giving us great value with the Liberty today. The Dream were favored by nine points at home and now are just favored by four points less which does not play out with the change in venue. We took a chance with New York and its 1-6 road record going into Friday but it is a much better 2-3 at home and this is the first time all season that the Liberty are home underdogs. Atlanta comes in with a 2-2 record on the road and this is just its second road game over its last seven games. The Dream did win and cover against Washington in their last road game but were 0-3 ATS on the highway coming into that one and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games going back to last season. 10* (654) New York Liberty |
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06-20-14 | New York Liberty +9 v. Atlanta Dream | Top | 64-85 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
These are two teams heading in opposite directions and because of that, we are getting a very good number with the team going south. New York has lost four straight games and has been unable to cover any of those either. The last two games were loses by five and four points, the former in overtime, so it has been competitive but has not been able to get over the hump. After opening the season with a win at Connecticut, the Liberty have dropped their last six road games and have failed to cover the last five. While many people do not like going against these streaks, these are the perfect times to buy at a premium. Atlanta meanwhile has won five straight games while covering each of those games as well. The Dream are now in first place in the Eastern Conference by two games and while it certainly won't sit down here, winning and covering are two different matters when we are talking about a number this big. On top of that, this is the biggest line that Atlanta has been favored by this season and I think it will prove to be too high. New York has been an underdog of more than four points only once this season and that resulted in a cover against Minnesota as it was getting eight points. We go contrarian on Friday night with the Liberty. 10* (601) New York Liberty |
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06-19-14 | Tulsa Shock v. Los Angeles Sparks -6.5 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
We are getting exceptional line value in an exceptional situation with Los Angeles. The Sparks are struggling as they have lost four straight games both straight up and against the number but this is the game to break out. We played against them on Tuesday as they lost to Minnesota on their home floor but that was a difficult spot as the Lynx came in on a two-game skid but now the situations are different on Thursday. The line value comes from the fact that Los Angeles played at Tulsa six days ago and was favored by four points and despite the venue switch, it is favored by just a bucket more which is supreme value. After going 0-5 to open the season, Tulsa has won four straight games. We have been on the Shock's side for a couple wins this season and now is the time to back off especially considering the fact that it is 7-2 ATS on the season. They are coming into Los Angeles at the wrong time especially with a 0-4 record away from the BOK Center in 2014 and going back, Tulsa is only 10-62 on the road the last five seasons. The Sparks had a players only meeting following the Minnesota loss and I feel they are in great shape to bust out and win this one going away. 10* (654) Los Angeles Sparks |
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06-19-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Arizona Diamondbacks +115 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
After dropping the first two games of this series, the Diamondbacks won on Wednesday and I feel they carry that over into the series finale today. Arizona improved to 13-26 at home which isn't saying much as it has been a huge disappointment on its home field but the play has been better, going 9-8 over its last 17 games. Milwaukee was able to retain its 3.5-game lead in the National League Central with the Cardinals losing also. Despite having the third best record in baseball, the Brewers have the ninth best run differential so a lot that has been accomplished has been done with smoke and mirrors. They are again favored on the road behind Yovani Gallardo as he is coming off back-to-back gems, allowing just one run in 14 combined innings. Still, he has followed up his last four quality starts with a quality outing only once and since posting a 1.91 ERA through his first six starts, he has a 4.79 ERA over his last eight starts. The Brewers are 0-4 in Gallardo's last four starts against the National League West. Chase Anderson has been a solid addition to the Arizona rotation as he is 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in six starts. He has allowed two runs or less in five of those starts and his run support at home has been off the charts at 12.0 rpg and while that pace won't continue, the Arizona bats should stay hot for him today. 10* (904) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-18-14 | Minnesota Lynx v. Phoenix Mercury -1 | Top | 79-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
We won with Minnesota last night as it easily defeated Los Angeles in a game it never trailed and led by as many as 28 points before taking the foot off the gas in the fourth period. The Lynx shot an amazing 63.8 percent from the floor with the starting five hitting everything in a 29-42 (69 percent) shooting performance. Phoenix has a defense that can combat that as the Mercury are allowing opponents to shoot just 41.7 percent from the floor and while the scoring average allowed is high, the offense can more than make up for it. Phoenix leads the WNBA at 49.4 percent shooting and that average jumps to a sensational 54.3 percent in its four home games. The Mercury are back home following a five-game roadtrip which included an eight-point win at Minnesota last time out. That sets up a quick revenge spot for the Lynx but playing road revenge is not a good recommendation and Phoenix will still be highly motivated as a win here will put it into first place in the Western Conference. Additionally, the Mercury want to put an end to the Lynx winning streak here as they have dropped seven straight home meetings so while putting an end to the overall 14-game losing streak on Sunday, this one is just as important to them. The Mercury are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (606) Phoenix Mercury |
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06-17-14 | Minnesota Lynx +1.5 v. Los Angeles Sparks | Top | 94-77 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Minnesota and Los Angeles are both in the midst of some poor play as the Lynx have dropped two straight and three of their last four games after a 7-0 start to the season while the Sparks have lost three straight and five of their last six games. To Los Angeles' credit, five of the last six games have come on the road but on the season, it is just 1-2 at home and that includes a loss to Minnesota in its most recent home game. That was the lone win during the recent four-game stretch for Minnesota and while the Sparks are playing with revenge, Minnesota is in the better rebounding spot in my opinion. It has been a rarity to get points with the Lynx as they have been the underdog only twice in 11 games and they are a perfect 2-0 straight up and against the number in those contests. Playing on the road is no issue as Minnesota's five road wins are the most in the WNBA. The Sparks lost Kristi Toliver for the time being while she fulfills her commitment to the Slovakian National Team and her 11.7 ppg average has been missed. The Lynx are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss while the Sparks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (653) Minnesota Lynx |
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06-15-14 | Miami Heat +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 87-104 | Loss | -109 | 36 h 41 m | Show |
To say Miami's back is against the wall is an understatement as two home losses have put it down 3-1 in this series and it will need to win out to defend its NBA titles. While that may be asking too much, I expect an all out effort on Sunday to remain alive and we are getting some added value on top of it. This is the biggest number the Heat have seen in this series thus far and it is due to the dominance that the Spurs have put forth through the first four games. If nothing else, I expect a close game, much closer than what we have witnessed the last two games. After Miami lost Game One by 15 points, it bounced back to win Game Two and it is in a similar situation here in that it will have two days off in-between games and that is very important for a team that looked completely out of gas on Thursday. Obviously the key is to slow down the Spurs offense which is shooting 54.2 percent in the series. The NBA Finals record for a series of any length is 52.7 percent which show the high level of efficiency. The best player on the floor has not been the best player thus far and when it comes elimination time, LeBron James has stepped up in the past. His 45-point game in Boston in the 2012 Eastern Conference finals, a triple-double against the Spurs in Game Six last year and scoring 37 points in Game Seven shows his ability to take over when needed. The Heat have covered four of their last five games after a double-digit loss and we will see another cover at the very least on Sunday. 10* (709) Miami Heat |
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06-15-14 | Atlanta Dream v. Washington Mystics +2.5 | Top | 75-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
We won with Atlanta on Friday as it took care of Minnesota at home in what was a big revenge game for the Dream as they were out for payback from last season's sweep in the WNBA Finals. Now the situation is going in the opposite direction as Washington will be out for revenge after losing to Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Semifinals last season. The Mystics were able to win the first game but were dropped in the final two games so we will see some added motivation from them today. Additionally, it would not be surprising to see Atlanta in a letdown spot after Friday's win where it built a 17-point lead at the half and barely held on. The Dream are 1-2 on the road and they could easily be 0-3 as the lone victory came in overtime at Indiana. They were favored in all three of those road games and here they are favored again despite not covering any of those games. Washington is 3-4 at home but three of those losses came against the stronger Western Conference including Phoenix and Minnesota, the two top teams out there, so it is 2-1 at home against the Eastern Conference with the lone defeat coming in a no rest situation. The Mystics had a big win here on Friday over Chicago and carry that into Sunday as they get their revenge. 10* (606) Washington Mystics |
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06-14-14 | Los Angeles Sparks v. San Antonio Silver Stars +3 | Top | 74-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Both Los Angeles and San Antonio are coming off losses last night and they have both put up relatively the same runs over the last couple weeks. The Sparks have dropped four of their last five games including losses in three of their last four road games. The Silver Stars have also gone 1-4 over their last five games but I feel we are getting significant value with them tonight as a home underdog. They have yet to cover a game at home and the first game of this recent skid came at home against Minnesota with that number being the same as it is tonight which does not make sense in comparison of the two teams. This has been a lopsided series going back to last season as Los Angeles has won the last four meetings and none of those have been close with the margin of victory being 36, 27, 13 and 21 points. That 21-point defeat came earlier this season in Los Angeles so the Silver Stars are playing with some early season revenge and they certainly will be motivated to get some payback. The Sparks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record while San Antonio is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (652) San Antonio Silver Stars |
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06-13-14 | Minnesota Lynx v. Atlanta Dream +1.5 | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Atlanta has had this game circled for quite some time, eight months to be exact. After cruising through the Eastern Conference playoffs last season, the Dream faced Minnesota in the WNBA Finals and were swept in three games by 25, 25 and 9 points. It was the second time in three years that they were swept in the Finals by Minnesota and they have yet to win a game in three championship series appearances. It is safe to say they will be out for revenge tonight and they come in with some positive momentum on top of it. Atlanta has won two straight games after losing three of four and it also brings in a solid 4-1 home record including wins in three straight. Minnesota has the best record in the league at 8-1 but there might be a bit of a letdown on Friday after the Lynx visited the White House yesterday to get honored for their championship. They have been covering machines against the top teams in the league and they are getting a lot of action here because of the short price. We will bite the other way as we will back the more motivated team as Atlanta at least gets a little payback from last season. 10* (604) Atlanta Dream |
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06-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -5 | Top | 107-86 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
After getting homecourt advantage away from San Antonio with a Game Two win, the Heat gave it right back with their second blowout loss in this series to fall behind 2-1. Realistically, Miami could be down 3-0 in this series as it escaped with a two-point win on Sunday to even the series so while many will point to the Spurs as being the dominating team with a chance to really open up the series tonight, we have yet to see Miami play even close to its best game and I expect that to happen tonight. San Antonio scored a record 41 points in the first quarter to open up a big lead and never look back in Game Three and it went on to shoot 59.4 percent from the floor. Lost in the incredible offensive performance from the Spurs is the fact that they had a rough time stopping Miami from efficiently scoring. LeBron James shot 9-of-14 (64.3 percent), Dwyane Wade went 8-for-12 (66.7 percent), and Chris Bosh shot a perfect 4-for-4. Overall, Miami shot 51.6 percent from the floor. The Heat are in good position for a bounceback as they are 4-0 in the playoffs following a loss and going back to 2012, they are a perfect 13-0 in the postseason when coming off a defeat. Additionally, the Heat are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss of more than 10 points. While san Antonio has control of the series knowing two of the final three games are at home, this is an absolute must win for Miami and while it is laying more than in Game Three, I don't expect it to come into play. 10* (708) Miami Heat |
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06-11-14 | Seattle Storm v. Indiana Fever -5.5 | Top | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
We went against Seattle last night and lost as the Storm went to Chicago and pulled off the outright win, their second straight underdog upset. This is the second of back-to-back games and while Seattle is 1-1 playing with no rest this season, the lone victory came after a loss the previous night. The Storm are just 1-2 following a victory and on the season, they are 2-5 ATS on the road. Indiana has had a very streaky season as it opened 0-3 before winning its next four games but it could not keep that momentum rolling as the Fever lost last Saturday at Connecticut by 17 points. They will be out to make up for that loss and add to their modest two-game home winning streak. The time off not only helps Indiana in this situation as it is playing with a lot more rest but also because of the injury situation of Briann January who is nursing an ankle injury. She missed one game and was non-existent against the Sun but she is averaging 14.1 ppg and 4.9 apg which both leads the team. Tonight, the Fever will honor head coach Lin Dunn, who will be inducted into the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame this weekend. She announced her retirement last month so this is her final season and adding to the motivation of tonight is to try and defeat her former team. The Fever are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. 10* (602) Indiana Fever |
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06-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -4 | Top | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
Miami brought home the victory in Game Two and it now is in the drivers seat. The series now shifts to Miami with the Heat holding home-court advantage, and renewed confidence after another series-tying victory in a long list of clutch postseason performances. They battled back more than once and made up for the effort in Game One where they went 3-16 after LeBron James left the game and it was the defense that shined the most when needed. After shooting 14 for 16 in the fourth quarter of Game One, the Spurs were 6 of 17 in Game Two and they closed at 43.9 percent from the field after shooting 58.8 percent in Game One. Miami is 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS at home in the postseason so it has done an excellent job of taking care of its home court and while this will be the biggest test, the Heat will again be up for the challenge to not give back that home court advantage right away. Going back to last season, the Heat are 18-3 in their last 21 home playoff games and going back since the start of the 2011-12 postseason, they are 29-5 in their last 34 games at home. The Spurs meanwhile haven't exactly been getting it done on the road as they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (706) Miami Heat |
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06-10-14 | Seattle Storm v. Chicago Sky -7 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Seattle is coming off an upset win over Minnesota in its last game on Friday as it outscored the Lynx 21-11 in the fourth quarter, turning a seven-point deficit entering the final period into a three-point win. Seattle was fortunate that the Sky could not make anything from long range as they finished the game 1-13 from beyond the arc. It was the second straight win at home for the Storm where they are now 2-1 on the season but the road has been a real issue as they are just 1-5 including two straight losses by double-digits. Chicago meanwhile opened the season 5-1 with the lone loss coming against Minnesota by three points. However, the Sky have dropped their last two games and neither was pretty. They lost at home to Los Angeles by 12 points and followed that up with an embarrassing 38-point loss at Atlanta on Saturday. They committed 19 turnovers while shooting just 33.8 percent from the floor and they were absolutely dominated on the glass 51-32 including 20-10 on the offensive end. That is the type of loss that can motivate a team next time out and I expect a huge effort from Chicago tonight. 10* (656) Chicago Sky |
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06-09-14 | Los Angeles Kings v. NY Rangers -129 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
The Rangers have gotten into a 2-0 hole in this series which makes tonight a must win game at home. Must win certainly does not guarantee a win but heading home for their first Stanley Cups Finals game in New York in two decades is going to give them a big edge to try and get back in the series. Both losses were tough ones in overtime so New York could feasibly be in a better position than it is in right now and it is even more disappointing knowing that the Kings haven't led for a single second of regulation play in the Stanley Cup Final. The Rangers built leads of 2-0, 3-1 and 4-2, but couldn't get the job done in Game Two but grabbing another early lead here will be easier to hold onto at home. Before losing Game Two, the Rangers were 10-0 in the postseason when leading after two periods. One big thing going forward as the series goes on is the ability that New York to change things up. The Rangers' depth has served them well, as head coach Alain Vigneault has been able to use four lines and he has been able to use six defensemen for most of the first two games. This can be an edge in wearing down Los Angeles especially with the series shifting venues. The Rangers are 7-2 in their last nine games after allowing five goals or more in their previous game and the price is right tonight for that to continue. 10* (56) New York Rangers |
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06-08-14 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 57 h 11 m | Show |
The Heat were defeated by 15 points against San Antonio on Thursday but it was not as bad of a loss as the final score showed. Miami actually had a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter but after LeBron James had to leave the game because of cramping, the Heat crumbled. The Spurs outscored the Heat 16-3 after James left the game. Game Two is now as close as a must win game can be as falling behind 2-0 in this series could be overwhelming. The Spurs showed why they finished with the best record in the NBA but it will be up to Miami to show why it has won back-to-back championships and it will not fall down again. Credit the Spurs for playing an excellent game despite committing 22 turnovers as they shot an absurd 58.8 percent for the game and an unreal 14 for 16 in the fourth quarter. Don't expect a repeat performance of that and Miami definitely caught the biggest break with two days off in-between Game One and Game Two so the rest factor is huge and obviously for James the most. Miami is 3-0 in the playoffs following a loss and going back to 2012, it is a perfect 12-0 in the postseason when coming off a defeat. Additionally, the Heat are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Look for Miami to grab the home court advantage and head home with the series tied. 10* (703) Miami Heat |
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06-07-14 | NY Rangers +140 v. Los Angeles Kings | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 57 h 36 m | Show |
We lost with the Rangers in Game One in overtime in a tough defeat after they blew a 2-0 first period lead. The game was tied going into the third period and New York came out flat for some reason as it was outshot 20-3 and it could not recover as it gave up an early goal in overtime. Game Two is a pivotal one for the Rangers as they still have a chance to secure home ice with a victory and while a loss will not be a complete devastation, it is something they should avoid at all costs. The goaltending matchup was pretty much a wash in the first game and it will be up to Henrik Lundqvist to bounce back which I think he will. He still leads all playoff goalies with a .928 save percentage, is second with a 2.00 GAA, and has held his opposition to two goals or fewer in 15 of his 21 appearances. Over the past 10 games, he’s allowed just 18 goals which is 10 fewer than Jonathan Quick. Give Quick credit for shutting New York down after two first period goals but it was his defense that helped him out as after allowing 13 first period shots, it allowed only 14 shots over the next 44:36. Expect more opportunities for New York in Game Two. The Rangers are 8-3 in their last 11 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game and they are 6-2 in their eight playoff games following a loss including 3-0 in their last three. 10* (53) New York Rangers |
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06-06-14 | Phoenix Mercury v. Tulsa Shock +4.5 | Top | 78-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Tulsa comes into this game as the only winless team remaining in the WNBA but it is much better than the 0-5 record indicates. The Shock have played just one home games which resulted in a one-point loss to Minnesota, the only undefeated team left in the league. Three of the other four losses were all by four points or less so clearly, any of those games could have gone their way. The only blowout defeat was a big one for sure, by 22 points at Phoenix exactly one week ago which sets up an early season revenge situation. Tulsa was getting 9.5 points in that one and now it getting only five points less which sets us up with good value. Phoenix is 4-1 on the season and while Tulsa has played just one home game, the Mercury have played only one road game. That resulted in a five-point win at Los Angeles and that was way back on May 18th so they have not been away from home for quite some time. Adding to the great spot is the fact that Phoenix travels to San Antonio tomorrow to avenge its only loss of the season. The Mercury have dropped the last four meetings on the road in this series while the Shock are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record going back to last season. 10* (604) Tulsa Shock |
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06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs -3.5 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 84 h 17 m | Show |
The two top teams in the NBA did their part in the Conference Finals and now meet in the NBA Finals for a second straight season. Both will have had ample time off to rest and that is more in favor of the Spurs due to the ankle situation with Tony Parker but all indications are that he will be ready to go in Game One on Thursday. This is the matchup San Antonio wanted as it wants to avenge last season's series loss that went the distance but could have been won by the Spurs if not for Ray Allen's three-pointer with 5.2 seconds left in regulation in Game Six that sent the game into overtime. While the Heat had home court advantage last season, San Antonio controls it this time around and Game One is the pivotal contest for the Spurs. Despite being the elite of the NBA, the two meetings during the regular season were anything but competitive as Miami won the first game at home by 12 points and the Spurs returned the favor with a 24-point drubbing of the Heat on their home floor. I think we can expect a few closer games in this series although last year's finals saw only two games decided by fewer than seven points. Miami won only two of seven games this regular season when it was an underdog and I expect that to continue for at least one more game. The Spurs have covered seven straight games at home and they get the early series edge with a win and cover on Thursday. 10* (702) San Antonio Spurs |
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06-05-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Kansas City Royals +112 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 112 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
The road team has won the first three games of this home-and-home series but we will be backing the home squad on Thursday to end that string. The Royals had won four of their previous six games heading into last night, all of which were on the road, but it has been their play at home that has really hurt them of late as they have now dropped six of their last seven games at Kauffman Stadium. It has been a mix of poor offense and bad pitching but I figure both of those coming together tonight. The Cardinals allowed 14 runs to Kansas City in the first two games at home but a start from Adam Wainwright last night ended the poor pitching run and they hope to get the same effort from Michael Wacha tonight. He has been solid all season long and he has tossed four straight quality outings but those were all at home. Even though his road numbers are solid with a 2.51 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, the numbers that count the most are that he is 0-3 with St. Louis going 0-5 in his five road starts this season. He has gotten no run support as he has received just 1.4 rpg. Something will have to give as Yordano Ventura is winless at home, going 0-4 with Kansas City just 1-5 in his six home starts. He has tossed two straight non-quality outings but had thrown six quality games in his first eight starts so we know the ability is there. He has gotten some extended time off here and comes in well rested. 10* (920) Kansas City Royals |
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06-04-14 | NY Rangers +138 v. Los Angeles Kings | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 5 m | Show |
We lost by playing against the Kings in Game Seven at Chicago as they made some history after becoming the first team ever to advance to the Stanley Cup finals by winning three straight Game Sevens and they did it one better by winning all of those games on the road. Clearly they are playing with confidence and has a ton of momentum on their side but this is the one game that could really hurt them as a letdown is very possible even given the magnitude of this game. Even more so, the Rangers come in much more rested as they have had an extra three days off which is big at this point in the season. New York had no issues winning on the road in the first three rounds of the playoffs as it went 6-4 with all wins being in the role of underdog. Overall, the Rangers have a better road record than the home record that the Kings possess and one of those highways wins came here early in the season as New York defeated Los Angeles 3-1. That is ancient history now but the best part is that we are getting an even better line now. We all know how important goaltending is in the playoffs and that is the Rangers' biggest advantage entering the Stanley Cup as Henrik Lundqvist has had a more consistent and impressive postseason than Jonathan Quick. Lundqvist leads all playoff goalies in save percentage. The Rangers are 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent scores five goals or more in their previous game while the Kings are 2-7 in their last nine games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (51) New York Rangers |
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06-03-14 | Los Angeles Sparks v. Atlanta Dream +2 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
This is a situation where I feel the wrong team is favored. Both Los Angeles and Atlanta come in with .500 records with the Dream playing two more games than the Sparks. I think makes a significant difference this early in the season but the line itself is telling us something. Los Angeles has been favored in all four of its games this season including both road games so the fact it is favored here may not seem surprising. However, Atlanta has been favored in all six of its games as well so the fact it is a home underdog is a shocker. We played against the Dream on Sunday but they were on the road and coming back home is huge as they are 2-1 this season after going 13-4 last year. They were home underdogs only twice in 2013 and they won and covered both of those games, winning by double-digits. One of those games came against the Sparks which went 15-2 at home but just 9-8 on the road while going 5-8 ATS as a road chalk. Additionally, they have dropped four straight in Atlanta by an average of 15.0 ppg. Point guard Celine Dumerc is set to make her debut for the Dream after starting the season on the suspended list due to obligations on her French club team where she was the team's leading scorer as France won the silver medal at the 2012 London Olympics. 10* (602) Atlanta Dream |
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06-01-14 | Los Angeles Kings v. Chicago Blackhawks -144 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -144 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Chicago has pulled off what the Kings have done in the playoffs previously as it has come back from a 3-1 series deficit to force a Game Seven and the roles have switched. The Kings came back from a 3-0 series deficit to force Game Seven against San Jose and rode that momentum to win the series. In the next round they came back from losing three straight games against Anaheim to force a Game Seven and took that series as well. Now Los Angeles goes into this Game Seven without any momentum at all and that will make a huge difference. History is not on the Kings side as well as no team has ever won three Game Sevens en route to the Stanley Cup finals, let alone three Game Sevens on the road. Meanwhile, Chicago has absolutely dominated in crunch time as it is a perfect 13-0 in Games Five, Six and Seven since the start of the 2013 postseason. Going back, Chicago has won its last four Game Sevens on home ice and with its 35-8-7 home record this season, it will be a huge task for the Kings to pull off another series clinching win on the road. 10* (28) Chicago Blackhawks |
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06-01-14 | Atlanta Dream v. Connecticut Sun +4 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
Many expected Connecticut to struggle this season as it came into 2014 with a totally revamped roster and so far, those predictions have held true. The Sun are 1-5 through their first six games and while four of those losses have come by double-digits, the last three have come on the road where overall, they are 0-4. Connecticut is 1-1 at home with a win in its last game here, a 12-point win over Seattle and it will look to build off that. Atlanta meanwhile is coming off a win in its last game which came at home against Seattle to improve to 2-1 on its home floor. The Dream are 1-1 on the road with a huge loss at Chicago and the lone victory took overtime to get it done at Indiana. They failed to cover both of those games and they are just 1-4 against the number in all of their games, all in the role of the favorite. Going back, the Sun are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss while Atlanta is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games against teams with a losing record and it has not fared well here, going 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings in Connecticut. While the outright win is more than possible, we will grab the substantial points at home with the Sun. 10* (652) Connecticut Sun |
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05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 206 | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
We had the over here in Game Five and things were looking very good until a 38-point fourth quarter did us in and it resulted in either a push or a loss depending on the number. We are coming right back with it again here tonight. The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all five games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last four games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last four games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. Also mentioned on Thursday, this has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.7 percent to 41.5 percent and we have yet to see a complete offensive games from both sides which is very surprising due to the quality of these teams. While we are on a run of unders in this series, San Antonio is 6-1 to the under in its last seven games while Oklahoma City is 7-1 to the under in its last eight games so we are going against even bigger streaks and I definitely expect that to change tonight. 10* Over (523) San Antonio Spurs/(524) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-30-14 | Indiana Pacers +7.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 92-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Miami took control of this series with three straight wins after losing the opening game and many feel that after the Game Five loss, it ends tonight. While that may be the case because the Heat are at home, we are getting some great value in this line as they are favored by a bucket more than they were in the first two games played here. Miami had no issues in the first two games played here but we should see a different Pacers team tonight as the momentum from Wednesday is a big factor. We saw it in their last series against Washington after Indiana won at home in Game Two, they rolled on the road following that victory. The Pacers need someone besides Paul George and Lance Stephenson to step up, and some combination of David West, who scored 19 points in Game Five, and center Roy Hibbert could be the difference. On top of everything else, this is the biggest line that Indiana has gotten all season long and while it was not very competitive here in the first two games, it is a different scenario now. With their backs once again up against the wall, the Pacers come through. 10* (521) Indiana Pacers |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 206 | Top | 89-117 | Push | 0 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all three games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last three games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last three games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. We have seen the total steadily decline since Game Two as it has gone from 209.5 to 208 to 207.5 to 206 for tonight and dropping three and a half points in a few games is a huge swing. This has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.6 percent to 41.1 percent. This could very well be the game that both teams play a complete game on offense and even of the Thunder can improve slightly from their first two games in San Antonio which won't be hard to do, this one goes over easily. The over is 5-0 in the Thunder's last five games following a win of more than 10 points while the over is 12-3 in the Spurs last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* Over (519) Oklahoma City Thunder/(520) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-29-14 | Montreal Canadiens +158 v. NY Rangers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
It seems as though everyone has written Montreal off and as stated on Tuesday, I am not one of those. After falling behind in this series 3-1, the Canadiens put forth an inspired effort in Game Five to extend the series and keep their playoff lives going. Winning on the road is not an issue and has not been an issue in the playoffs as Montreal is 5-3 on the highway this postseason and going back, it is 11-5 in its last 16 road games. Being on the brink of elimination is not an issue either as the Canadiens rallied from a 3-2 deficit to defeat Boston and while coming back from a 3-1 deficit here may seem close to impossible, they need to look down the ice and remember that the Rangers did it to Pittsburgh in their last series. Having lost Carey Price between the pipes was a huge loss for the Canadiens but Dustin Tokarski has been a fairly solid backup and his .902 save percentage is not that much worse than the .911 save percentage of Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist who was horrible last game and was pulled and I can see that carrying over into tonight. The pressure has squarely shifted to the side of the Rangers which is not a good thing when leading the series as playing tight can be a killer. Montreal has regained momentum and sends this one to a decisive Game Seven on Saturday. 10* (21) Montreal Canadiens |
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05-29-14 | Atlanta Braves +104 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
We lost with the Braves last night but will come back with them tonight as they look to avoid the four-game sweep against the Red Sox. Boston took the two games in Atlanta following a 10-game losing streak and it won the first game at home with four pitchers producing a shutout. The Braves have been shut out in five previous occasions and they have gone 4-1 in the follow up games and I expect another bounce back performance tonight. Atlanta sends Mike Minor to the hill and he has been outstanding with the exception of one game is his five starts since coming off the disabled list. He had a rough outing against St. Louis but his four other starts have been quality performances and going back to last season, he has allowed more than four runs only once in 33 starts. The Braves are 15-5 in Minor's last 20 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Boston counters with Jake Peavy and after a great start to the season, he has been struggling. He has an 8.82 ERA and 1.90 WHIP over his last three starts as he has allowed at five runs in each game. He has received minimal run support as well as he is getting just 3.9 rpg including 3.2 rpg in six home starts. The Red Sox are 0-4 in Peavy's last four starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (969) Atlanta Braves |
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05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
We cashed both the Under in Game Two and the Over in Game Three in this series and we go back to the totals for Game Five as we are again catching some solid value. The last two games of this series have surpassed the number and because of that, the number is now a bucket higher than it was in those previous two games. Additionally, the total is the highest it has been this series (tied with Game Two) that went under the total by 14.5 points. With Indiana's playoff lives on the line tonight, I expect its defense to come up huge as that is the trademark that has gotten them to where they are. The Pacers have allowed Miami to shoot 50.7 percent from the floor during the first four games of this series so now it is time to buckle down to stay alive. The Pacers are now on their first three-game playoff losing streak since losing Games Four, Five and Six against the Heat in the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals and while it is going to be difficult to come all the way back even with a win here, it cannot do so by getting into a shootout with Miami so possessions will play a big role here as well. Last year in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana was facing a similar spot as home in an elimination game and buckled down and won with the game finishing with just 168 points scored. I see this game to play out a similar way. The Under is 4-0 in the Pacers last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (517) Miami Heat/(518) Indiana Pacers |
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05-28-14 | Los Angeles Kings v. Chicago Blackhawks -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Montreal came through for us last night and I expect the Blackhawks to do the same tonight in a very similar situation. We are not getting the same even priced number but even though we are laying some juice here, I think it is actually a lot lower than it should be in a must win game for Chicago. Additionally, this line is the lowest of the series for Chicago so we are getting some added value on top of it all. Chicago has dropped three straight games in this series after winning the opener at home 3-1. The Blackhawks went on to lose Game Two which was their first home loss of the playoffs and I do not see them going down again. This situation is very familiar as well as Chicago faced Detroit in the Eastern Conference Semifinals last season, won the first game and then lost the next three games only to go on and win the final three games to claim the series. The goaltending of Corey Crawford has not been good during this skid and while I though it would improve in Game Four, it actually regressed but now back home again, he has a big chance to redeem himself. Last year against the Red Wings, Crawford righted the ship in Games Five, Six and Seven to win that series and he will need a repeat of that. On the other side, Kings goalie Jonathan Quick's save percentage in this series is .896 which is well below league average so he has not been up t0 par either. The Blackhawks are 10-4 in their last 14 games after allowing five goals or more in their previous game while Chicago has won six of the last seven home meetings in this series. 10* (20) Chicago Blackhawks |
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05-27-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | Top | 92-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
After getting blown out in San Antonio in the first two games of this series, the Thunder responded with a win on their home floor to get back into the Western Conference Finals. The home floor certainly helped but Serge Ibaka returned for Game Three after missing the first two games of the Western Conference Finals with a calf injury. His miraculous return was a huge difference as he provided the type of rim protection the Spurs didn't see back in San Antonio. In the first two games, the Spurs had 120 points in the paint but on Sunday, they only had 40. He is going to be back for Game Four which gives Oklahoma City the chance to even up this series before heading back to San Antonio. The Spurs have covered just one of their last seven road games and on the season, they are only 11-14 ATS in their 25 road games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Thunder have covered eight straight meetings at home in this series and they are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. While this game is big for both sides, it is more important for Oklahoma City as a 3-1 deficit with two games remaining in San Antonio would spell disaster. 10* (516) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-27-14 | NY Rangers v. Montreal Canadiens +101 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 101 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
The Rangers are a win away from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in two decades and while many are writing Montreal off, I am not one of those, at least for one more game. Home ice has helped in only one of the first four games and it took overtime for the Rangers to break through with a home win in Game Four so the Canadiens will be out to snap their two-game home losing streak tonight. After two poor efforts to open this series at the Bell Centre, I expect a huge effort from Montreal to keep their playoffs going for at least one more game. The Rangers have won four straight games on the highway and that is definitely playing into this line as teams that are in must win situations tend to have the lines shaded against them but that is not the case here for Montreal. The Canadiens felt they played their best game of the series on Sunday and they need to feed off that, similar to the way they were able to overcome a deficit against Boston to advance to here. The Canadiens are 10-3 in their last 13 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (18) Montreal Canadiens |
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05-26-14 | Chicago Blackhawks +120 v. Los Angeles Kings | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
The Blackhawks won the opener of this series but have lost the last two games and are in need of a win here to square up the series and go back to Chicago with again having the home ice advantage. It has been a tough time for Chicago on the power play which is rare as it was one of the best during the regular season. The Blackhawks went 0-for-4 with the man advantage in Game Three and have not scored a road power play goal in the playoffs since Game One of the first round against the Blues. Changes have been made go turn things around. Getting off to a quick start has not been an issue for the Blackhawks as in each of the first three games, the Blackhawks have scored first but have failed to hold on in the last two contests. A lot of that comes down to goaltending and Corey Crawford has not been at his best but I expect him to bounce back and have a solid game tonight. While the have not been playing great on the road, the Blackhawks have won seven of the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles so evening up this series will not be a huge challenge. 10* (15) Chicago Blackhawks |
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