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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-10-15 | Clippers v. Bulls | Top | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
After a slow start, the Clippers have won three straight games and six of their last seven after a disappointing 7-8 start that included a dreadful 3-8 stretch. They are coming off a road win at Milwaukee last night, the second to start this five-game roadtrip which also extended their road winning streak to three games. All four road wins on the season have come against losing teams and the real kicker is that with the exception of the Lakers and Sixers which are a combined 4-39, Los Angeles is the only team in the NBA that has yet to defeat a top ten team. Chicago falls into that category despite losses in three straight games including a tough one last night against the Celtics in Boston. After a 7-1 start at the United Center, the Bulls have dropped two straight here but the wins have been solid as of those seven home victories, six have been against teams with a winning record. Overall, the Bulls are 4-2 against top ten teams. The spotlight has been good to Chicago as it is 6-1 ATS in its last seven TNT games while the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (506) Chicago Bulls |
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12-10-15 | Blackhawks v. Predators -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is the second game of a home-and home between Chicago and Nashville and the Predators will be out to avenge a 4-1 defeat on Tuesday. It has been a pretty rough couple weeks for Nashville which has lost eight of its last 11 games but the schedule has not done it many favors as eight of those games came on the road. The disturbing issue though is that the three home games came against teams with a losing record and the Predators went just 1-2 in those games. Nonetheless, home ice has been solid while the road has been a big issue for Chicago this season. The Blackhawks are 5-9 on the highway compared to 10-4 at home so this is a big reason they sit 10 points behind Dallas in the Central Division. Nashville is not only playing with revenge from Tuesday but this is the first home meeting with Chicago since losing in the first round of last years playoffs four games to two. Going back, Nashville is 15-5 in its last 20 games revenging a loss where it scored one goal or less while Chicago is 12-25 in its last 37 games coming off two consecutive home wins by two goals or more. Additionally, the Blackhawks fall into a negative situation where we play against road teams that are coming off two consecutive home wins by two goals or more going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 119-69 (63.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (58) Nashville Predators |
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12-10-15 | Iowa +7.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 82-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Iowa is coming off a 22-12 season that was filled with many feats that had not happened in a while as the Hawkeyes went 12-6 in the Big Ten, their best conference record in nearly a decade, and they had their longest conference winning streak in nearly two decades. Iowa went 7-3 on the road last season so coming in here is not an issue, especially with four starters back from last season's successful team and already posting a 28-point win at Marquette last month. Overall, they are 7-2 and will be fired up to take out their undefeated rival. The Cyclones are 7-0 and ranked No. 4 in the latest AP Poll and No. 2 in the USA Today Coaches Poll, the highest ranking ever for Iowa St. so there could be some pressure which is their first real test of the season. Iowa matches up extremely well with the Cyclones as the comparisons are tight. Senior forwards Jarrod Uthoff of Iowa and Georges Niang of Iowa St. are averaging 19.3 ppg, 7.8 rpg and 3.8 bpg and 20.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg and 1.5 bpg in their last four games respectively. Both teams have veteran point guards in Mike Gesell for Iowa and Monte Morris for Iowa St. and they are averaging 6.9 apg and 7.3 apg respectively. Defensively, the teams are allowing virtually the same amount of points on the same shooting percentage. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 15 points or more. This situation is 44-13 ATS (77.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (511) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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12-09-15 | UNLV v. Wichita State -7 | Top | 50-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Wichita St. went from a top ten team to not even receiving votes following three straight losses in the AdvoCare Invitational in Orlando, Florida at the end of November. It was the first time in 42 consecutive weeks that the Shockers were not in the top 25 and while it may take a while to get back, they will be there. The three losses came without the services of All-American candidate point guard Fred VanVleet who has played in only three games and that includes just three minutes in one of those. The good news is that he is back and in just 18 minutes in his first game back, he scored 11 points and dished out seven assists. Now back home for just the third time this season, we will see the real Shockers tonight. UNLV has gotten off to a very good start at 7-1 with the lone loss coming against UCLA by just a bucket and it is coming off an impressive home win over Oregon. Now, the Rebels hit the road for the first time this season and being a very young team that went 3-8 on the highway last season, I do not expect them to have success in this building. The Shockers haven't lost a home non-conference game since Feb. 18, 2011, when Final Four bound VCU escaped Charles Koch Arena with a 68-67 win on a last-second free throw and they have now won 33 straight. 10* (742) Wichita St. Shockers |
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12-09-15 | Spurs v. Raptors +5 | Top | 94-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The Spurs are coming off a 51-point win over the Sixers on Monday which was a product of San Antonio being one of the best teams in the league and Philadelphia being the worst. The Spurs were favored by 10 there and are now favored by half that and while they were without three key players, they are clearly overvalued here. After three straight home losses, Toronto snapped that skid on Monday with a win over the Lakers and while that was an unimpressive victory, it was needed. It has been a slow start for the Raptors and there issue has been not playing well against the poor teams. They have been great against the top teams as they are the only team in the NBA with six wins over top ten teams and on the season, they are 7-0 ATS against winning teams and 7-0 ATS as an underdog of three or more points. Here, we play against favorites in a game involving two teams averaging between 98 and 102 ppg, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. This situation is 48-21 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (708) Toronto Raptors |
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12-09-15 | Heat v. Hornets +1.5 | Top | 81-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
We won with Charlotte on Monday and we will back them again tonight as they continue to get undervalued. The Hornets are just a half-game behind Miami in the Southeast Division in what is turning into a wide open division. Charlotte is 9-3 at home with those three losses coming against Atlanta, Cleveland and Golden St. Miami has been a pleasant surprise although many picked the Heat to win the division but I am not sold on this team yet as they have been the most fortunate team in the NBA when it comes to the schedule. 14 of their first 19 games have been on their home floor and this has equated to being the second easiest schedule in the league thus far. It gets tougher after the New Year as they play a stretch of 14 of 15 on the road. Charlotte falls into a situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg after a win by 20 points or more. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (702) Charlotte Hornets |
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12-09-15 | Bulls +3 v. Celtics | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The Bulls hit the road following a pair of home losses and it was the first time they have lost consecutive games this season as they are now 5-1 following a defeat. I don't see it making it to three straight as Chicago has not lost three straight regular season games since early March of last season. The Bulls are 4-4 on the road and this is a good place to get back over .500 on the highway as they have covered four straight meetings in Boston not including a push while the road team has covered the last four. The Celtics are coming off a 3-2 roadtrip to move three games over .500 and they have now covered four straight games. Boston has done well against the bottom teams in the NBA, going 9-1 against the bottom 14 teams while going just 3-8 against the top 16. The Celtics ppg differential is skewed because of this as eight of those nine wins against the lower half have been by double-digits. Chicago is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 road games after playing a home game while Boston is 50-78 ATS in its last 128 games off a road win by 10 points or more. 10* (703) Chicago Bulls |
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12-08-15 | TCU v. Washington -5.5 | Top | 67-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
TCU got off to an incredible 13-0 start last season but it is just 4-3 through seven games this year. Granted, the Horned Frogs have lost to some quality competition but on the flip side, they have defeated no one of note. This also marked their first true road game of the season and it comes in a very tough environment. Injuries are playing a role in the average start as three potential starters are banged up. Washington bounced back from a pair of losses in Atlantis with a win over Charlotte and returned home to pick up a blowout win over CS-Fullerton on Sunday. The Huskies had a miserable time last season and the roster was filled with players that clearly could not gel but they have cured that so far this season with good balance and a strong defense. TCU is 18-34 ATS in its last 52 games after allowing 55 points or less while Washington has covered four of its last five games against teams with a winning record. 10* (544) Washington Huskies |
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12-08-15 | Red Wings v. Capitals -155 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Detroit hits the road following a six-game homestand where it went 4-2 including wins in the final three games. The Red Wings have won two straight games on the road but dates all the way back to November 16th which shows the infrequency of their road play. Additionally, only two of those six games came against teams with a winning record. Washington meanwhile is back home following a three-game roadtrip where it started 2-0 but lost the final game in Winnipeg on Sunday. The Capitals also have a three-game roadtrip on deck so they need to take care of business at home where they are 10-4 on the season. Washington is 11-3 against the money line in its last 14 games after losing their previous game in overtime while going 9-1 this season following a non-conference games. Detroit meanwhile is 6-14 in its last 20 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and it falls into a negative situation where we play against road teams against the money line after scoring four goals or more in three straight games. This situation is 93-58 (61.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (60) Washington Capitals |
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12-08-15 | Warriors v. Pacers UNDER 215 | Top | 131-123 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
The undefeated streak of the Warriors is the big storyline but they are on another streak as well as they have gone over the total in six straight games. The offense has been off the charts all season long as Golden St. has yet to be held to fewer than 100 points but could tonight be the night? Over this six-game stretch, only Toronto has a better defense than what the Warriors will be facing tonight and the of those teams possess three of the top six worst defenses in the NBA. Indiana has gone over the total in two straight as it has had two straight shootouts, but those were aberrations of what has happened this season. Those games were on the road and the Pacers defense at home is allowing just 94.9 ppg on 43.4 percent shooting and it's pretty safe to say they cannot win this game if it gets into a trackmeet. Here, we play on the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 after a win by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 24-3 (88.9 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (501) Golden St. Warriors/(502) Indiana Pacers |
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12-08-15 | Massachusetts +3 v. UCF | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Central Florida is coming off a blowout win on Saturday against Illinois-Chicago to get to .500 for the first time this season while improving to a perfect 5-0 ATS on the season. UCF had fewer turnovers than their opponent for the first time this season, forcing the Flames to give up the ball 16 times throughout the game. The Knights have a big revenge game on deck against Florida Atlantic where it lost by 13 points just about a year ago to the day. Massachusetts is coming off its second loss of the season and both defeats have come against quality opposition in Mississippi and Creighton. The Minutemen have an exceptional backcourt as they have three perimeter players averaging 17 or more ppg. That will severely hurt the Knights which are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 home games against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game. Additionally, the Minutemen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (513) Massachusetts Minutemen |
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12-08-15 | Princeton v. St. Joe's -3.5 | Top | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Princeton is coming off its first loss of the season as it got thumped by 14 points at Stony Brook, clearly a very bad loss against an inferior opponent. The Tigers have yet to play anyone worthwhile and while St. Joe's is no elite power team, it represents their toughest test to date. The Hawks come in at 5-2 and they have defeated the teams they should beat while losing to Villanova and Florida. Two key things St. Joe's is doing well over last year's 13-18 team is it is converting free throws at a higher rate and limiting turnovers. The Hawks have converted over 70 percent from the line in five of seven games and they are ranked 17th in the nation and third in the A-10 in assist/turnover ratio with 1.39. The Hawks have covered six straight home games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 while going 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Ivy League. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. 10* (520) St. Joseph's Hawks |
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12-07-15 | Pistons v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 84-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
The Pistons are coming off a perfect homestand where they went 4-0 but those four victories came against teams with losing records. Those wins moved Detroit to 8-2 at home but the road has been a different story where the Pistons have dropped seven of their last eight after a 3-0 start on the highway. Charlotte is just a game and a half behind Miami in the Southeast Division following an upset win in Chicago on Saturday following a seven-game homestand. The Hornets are 8-3 at home and those losses have all been quality as they came against three of the four teams that were in the Conference Finals last season including Cleveland and Golden St. This is the first time this season that Detroit is playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road with the first coming at home so it is not in an ideal spot. The Hornets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record while the Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. 10* (702) Charlotte Hornets |
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12-06-15 | Kings v. Thunder UNDER 220.5 | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
It is pretty rare to see an NBA total in the 220's but that is what we have tonight between Oklahoma City and Sacramento. Only once this season between these two teams in 40 games combined has there been a total more than 220 and the Kings and Warriors stayed under it by more than 23 points. Oklahoma City has stayed under the total in five straight games and it is the defense that has been the difference, allowing just 95.6 ppg over that stretch. This series has seen the total be in the 200's in nine of the last 10 meetings and all nine of those have stayed below the number. The Oklahoma City under run puts them in a solid situation where we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 33-9 (78.6 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 9-0 in the Thunder's last nine games against teams with a losing record while the under is 7-0 in the Kings last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (509) Sacramento Kings/(510) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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12-06-15 | Panthers v. Saints +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on NEW ORLEANS for our NFL Game of the Month. With New England's loss last weekend, Carolina is now the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL and that comes with a price as we can see here. Being favored on the road is one thing but being favored by a touchdown over a divisional rival is another thing. New Orleans has dropped three straight games and has fallen out of the playoff picture but a win here to ruin the Panthers perfect season would be huge for them. In addition to the straight up runs, Carolina has covered four straight games while New Orleans has failed to cover those last three and that is also playing into this number. Going back, the Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall against winning teams. New Orleans falls into a fantastic situation as well as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are being outscored by opponents by four or more ppg, after scoring nine points or less last game. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (362) New Orleans Saints |
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12-06-15 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on OAKLAND for our Sunday Enforcer. Kansas City was left for dead after a 15 start but the Chiefs have run off five straight wins to get right back in the playoff hunt. Last week, they took out a very improved Buffalo team but the weather played a role as the Bills actually won the yardage battle. Kansas City has also covered the last five games. Oakland meanwhile is coming off a road win last week at Tennessee thanks to a phantom penalty but the Raiders deserved to win as they outgained the Titans by 158 total yards. That snapped a three-game slide and Oakland is still alive in the Wild Card race. Four of their losses have come by six points or less so things could actually be even better for one of the most improved teams in the league. Kansas City is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 road games against teams averaging 24 or more ppg in the second half of the season and it falls into a negative situation. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (374) Oakland Raiders |
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12-06-15 | Broncos v. Chargers +4.5 | Top | 17-3 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on SAN DIEGO for our Sunday Star Attraction. San Diego picked up a much needed victory last week at Jacksonville and while it won't get any style points for it, it was necessary for the psyche of the team. The Chargers had lost six straight games prior to that and now they will be out for their first winning streak of the season against a hated divisional rival. They have dropped four straight at home and while the San Diego home field edge is pretty minute, they are catching Denver at the perfect time. The Broncos are coming off a big come-from-behind victory against New England last week in overtime so this is the perfect opportunity for a letdown even though this is a divisional game. Those types of wins are tough to recover from and that will be the case again here. The Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. Denver falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (372) San Diego Chargers |
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12-06-15 | Ravens v. Dolphins -3.5 | Top | 13-15 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on MIAMI for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. It has been a very inconsistent season for Miami as it has dropped four of its last five games following a two-game winning streak to start the tenure of head coach Dan Carpenter. All four of the recent losses came against teams still alive for the playoffs so it has been a very difficult stretch of games. Baltimore has flat out been a mess all season even though it is coming off a win last week against Cleveland on a walk-off blocked field goal for a touchdown. That will be a tough game to recover from knowing there is no hope for the playoffs and playing without their top quarterback, top running back and top wide receiver. The Ravens are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Additionally, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (360) Miami Dolphins |
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12-06-15 | Falcons +1 v. Bucs | Top | 19-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on ATLANTA for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The term "must win game" is thrown around a lot this time of year and Atlanta finds itself directly in that situation. The Falcons have lost four straight and five of their last six games after a 5-0 start and a lot of the issues have been simply bad luck. Three of the losses have been by three points or less including a home overtime loss to these Buccaneers so they would like nothing more than to return the favor. Tampa Bay lost at Indianapolis last week to fall to 5-6 and while this is considered a must win for them as well, getting to the playoffs with six losses already likely will not happen. Atlanta is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following four or more consecutive losses while Tampa Bay is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 375 or more ypg. Additionally, we play on road teams in the second half of the season after five or more consecutive losses against the spread. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Falcons break their skid here. 10* (367) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-05-15 | Magic v. Clippers -2 | Top | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
It looked as though the Clippers were turning the corner as they had won three straight games following a miserable 1-4 stretch but they put up a dud at home against Indiana on Wednesday. The absence of Chris Paul did not help and now the absence of J.J. Reddick does them no favors but they have plenty of depth and have been able to get a good amount of practice time in. The hottest teams in the NBA not named Golden St. comes from an unlikely source as Orlando has reeled off five straight wins. The defense has been stifling but we see that coming to an end tonight. This includes two road wins to open this trip but they catch the Clippers in a not so ideal spot. Orlando falls into a solid negative situation as we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This situation is 155-101 ATS (60.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (720) Los Angeles Clippers |
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12-05-15 | Knicks v. Bucks +1.5 | Top | 91-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
We won with the Knicks last night but that was more of a play against Brooklyn than anything else and tonight we will be going against New York. The Knicks have won two straight games to move back to .500 but are coming off a four-game homestand and are now playing their first road game since before Thanksgiving. The Bucks lost their second straight game, this time at Detroit last night. They never led and it ended up being their eighth straight loss on the road but they are a much more respectable 5-2 over their last seven home games. They opened the season with a 25-point home loss to New York so Milwaukee will be out to make amends even though it already did pick up a win at MSG. The Bucks have played exceptional this season playing with no rest, going a perfect 4-0 ATS. In my opinion, the wrong team is favored tonight. 10* (714) Milwaukee Bucks |
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12-05-15 | North Carolina +5 v. Clemson | Top | 37-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
This line came out shorter than expected as Clemson is the No. 1 teams in the country while North Carolina has not played an overly difficult schedule. The Tar Heels however have an excellent team and riding an 11-game winning streak shows they are doing something right. The offense can match Clemson point for point and while the Tigers come in with the much more heralded defense, North Carolina's stop unit has steadily improved yardage wise and that credit can be given to defensive coordinator Gene Chizik who will no doubt have a solid gameplan here. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. This situation is 44-17 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1992. While it has been said that North Carolina has not defeated anyone of note, the Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record while Clemson is just 3-9 ATS in their last 122 games following a loss against the spread. An outright win is not out of the question here. 10* (329) North Carolina Tar Heels |
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12-05-15 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Iowa | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
While there are teams this season that have not played many elite opponents, their overall body of work makes up for that in some cases but that is not the case for Iowa. The Hawkeyes have not lost this season but they have a very east schedule as they avoided all of the big teams in the big Ten and while the fault is not on them but on the schedulemakers, there is not much to like. We played against Iowa last week and while it covered against Nebraska, it was outgained by 183 total yards which came after getting outgained by 2-10 Purdue. Michigan St. destroyed Penn St. last week as Conner Cook was back in the lineup behind center and had a great game. The Spartans are one bad call away from being undefeated and while that can be countered with their fortunate win over Michigan, the win over Ohio St. shows that this team is on another level. This is where they step up as the Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better. The Hawkeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game while Michigan St. is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. 10* (331) Michigan St. Spartans |
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12-05-15 | Blazers v. Wolves -2 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is an early season revenger for Minnesota as it lost at home against Portland last month to aid in its not-so-good 2-7 record at home. Surprisingly, the Timberwolves are 6-3 on the road so it has been a very unusual start for them as they head into this one having lost two straight. Portland meanwhile is coming off an upset win over Indiana at home but it has been a trying season for the Blazers without LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum. After starting the season 4-2, Portland is just 4-10 over its last 14 games including a 1-6 record on the road with the lone win coming against the 3-16 Lakers. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off an upset win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 63-28 ATS (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (708) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-05-15 | Illinois-Chicago +14 v. UCF | Top | 58-88 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Here we have the perfect contrast between two teams that is inflating the line to a drastic measure. Central Florida, despite a 2-3 record, has yet to lose against the number as it is a perfect 4-0 ATS. The three straight up losses have been very tight so the record could be better. On the other side, Illinois-Chicago has just one win in five tries and it is 0-4 ATS in its four lined games. The Flames are coming off a poor season and arte now with a new coach and not much is expected this season. However, this line is certainly in their favor and we can go back to last season as an example. Illinois-Chicago was a favored by 1.5 points last season at home and now the line has shifted 15.5 points since then and there is no way these two teams have gone that much apart from each other. Going back, the Flames are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home while the Knights are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (777) Illinois-Chicago Flames |
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12-05-15 | Southern Illinois v. North Texas +7 | Top | 95-63 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Southern Illinois is off to a surprising 7-1 start but the schedule has been pretty tame and in its favor. The Salukis have played only one true road game and that was against lower level Sam Houston St. of the Southland Conference and it took overtime to win. There was a lot of turnover for Southern Illinois from last season so they have to be happy with the start but laying a big number on the road is overaggressive. North Texas is no elite team and it has yet to cover a game this season but those situations were all different. Two road games against Northern Iowa and Utah were blowouts against power teams and in three home games, they were favored in all and two resulted in losses by a bucket. Now the Mean Green are a big home underdog and we will grab the generous number. Going back, the Salukis are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games while the Mean Green are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (782) North Texas Mean Green |
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12-05-15 | West Virginia v. Kansas State +6 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
One of the great college football coaches will be on the sidelines for his final regular season game as Bill Snyder concludes a historic career where he turned the Kansas St. program around not once but twice. While this season has been pretty average, the Wildcats have the opportunity to send their coach to one more bowl game as a win over Kansas last week has kept the postseason alive. West Virginia has had a very streaky season as it went undefeated in September, winless in October and undefeated in November. The schedule had a lot to do with it and the current four-game winning streak is unimpressive in my opinion as three of those wins came at home while the lone road win was at 0-12 Kansas. There really is no reason the Mountaineers should be a road favorite here. Kansas St is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 while going 6-1 ATS as a home underdog over that stretch. 10* (314) Kansas St. Wildcats |
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12-05-15 | Florida +18 v. Alabama | Top | 15-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
Alabama is rolling right now with nine straight wins with eight of those coming by double-digits but it is hard to trust a team laying this many points in a conference championship game. The Crimson Tide have covered four straight games but they have gone just 2-7 ATS as a favorite of more than a touchdown against trams playing with revenge. That role is with Florida which was blasted last season at Alabama by 21 points while getting outgained by 472 yards. We lost with Florida last week against Florida St. and while the final deficit was by 25 points, the Gators were outgained by just 42 total yards. The offense has struggles of late which is a big reason for this massive line but Florida is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. While mentioned that Alabama has covered four straight games, it needs to be noted that under head coach Nick Saban, it is 0-7 ATS away from home after four or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (325) Florida Gators |
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12-04-15 | Rockets +5.5 v. Mavs | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
It has been a trying season for the Rockets as they have done their best to fall out of contention in the Western Conference. They made it to the Western Conference Finals a season ago so expectations were high but after a poor start to this season, head coach Kevin McHale was let go which has not cured much. Although Houston has won three of its last four games and is catching a very solid number here. Dallas is just three games over .500 following a 2-4 run but the fact it is riding a five-game home winning streak is the main reason for the size of this number. The Rockets fall into a great situation as we play on road teams after allowing 100 points or more four straight games going up against an opponent after a win by six points or less. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (509) Houston Rockets |
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12-04-15 | Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green UNDER 70 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Northern Illinois and Bowling Green square off for the third straight season in Detroit for the MAC Championship. Things are different this time around as the Huskies were favored in both of the previous two meetings but now it is the Falcons that come in as a huge chalk tonight with the main reason being the Northern Illinois quarterback situation. Drew Hare is done for the season and Ryan Graham, who led them to that improbable win over Toledo and then led them to two more win, was hurt last week. Freshman Tommy Fielder is expected to start tonight and there is no doubt that a run heavy gameplan has been put into place. Bowling Green has a very potent offense behind quarterback Matt Johnson but the Huskies have a sneaky good defense that has done enough to have their last two games go under the number while allowing more than 30 points only once this season. Northern Illinois is 12-2 to the under as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points while Bowling Green is 6-0 to the under in its last six games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg and 14-4 to the under after covering as a double-digit favorite. Both teams fall into a great under situation as we play the under involving teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 and having two teams averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 46-18 (71.9 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (303) Northern Illinois Huskies/(304)Bowling Green Falcons |
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12-04-15 | Nets v. Knicks -3 | Top | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Fresh off a pair of wins, Brooklyn heads to MSG to face the Knicks for the first meeting this season. The Nets are in the midst of their first multi-game winning streak of the season with both of those wins coming by just three and four points and both took big fourth quarter comebacks. The Knicks meanwhile are coming off a win over the Sixers, which is certainly nothing great, but it snapped a four-game skid so it in fact was a much needed victory. Brooklyn has won just one road game this season and despite a 1-10 road record, it is catching the smallest line it has seen on the highway all season. Going back, Brooklyn is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games following consecutive wins while the Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (502) New York Knicks |
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12-04-15 | Suns v. Wizards +1 | Top | 106-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The Wizards are playing some horrible basketball right now but in no way should they be a home underdog in this spot. They are coming off a loss against the now 3-15 Lakers which was their fifth loss in six games and they were unable to capitalize off a big upset win in Cleveland the previous night. Phoenix is going though a similar skid as it has lost six of its last seven games including losses in two straight following a win in Toronto to open this roadtrip. The Suns were favored over Brooklyn by 3.5 points to open the week and there is no way they should be favored again on the road against a much better team despite the home team struggles. Going back, the Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing straight up record while the Wizards are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (504) Washington Wizards |
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12-03-15 | Magic v. Jazz -3.5 | Top | 103-94 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Orlando is one of the NBA's pleasant early season surprises as it comes in with a 10-8 record which currently puts it in a tie for seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The Magic have won four straight games and Orlando has not won five games in a row in nearly four years so this is brand new territory. After finishing six games under .500 last season, Utah is off to a .500 start which is actually good enough for seventh place in the Western Conference. The Jazz are coming off a hard fought battle against Golden St. as they gave the Warriors all they could handle in a three-point loss. It was the second straight home loss and just the sixth home game overall on the season. Utah will be out for some revenge following a loss in Orlando earlier last month by nine points as a 1.5-point favorite and going back, the Jazz are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite. Additionally, Utah is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 105 points or more. The defense has allowed 96 points or less in four or five games after allowing 100 points this season and we will see another solid bounceback effort tonight. 10* (706) Utah Jazz |
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12-03-15 | Packers v. Lions OVER 46.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 102 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
It has been a pretty tough month for the Packers which went from an undefeated record at 6-0 and a lead in the NFC North to a 7-4 record and now fighting for a Wild Card spot in the conference. The division is still within grasp but laying points on the road with the way it is playing is tough to do but we do expect the offense to do much better than what took place in the first meeting three weeks ago. Green Bay managed just 16 points but did put up 372 yards in the defeat which was similar to last week against the Bears where they put up 365 yards and scored only 13 points. While the Lions defense has been great the last three weeks, this is still a very inconsistent unit. On the other side, under new offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, the Lions are closer to a balanced offense. They ran the ball 29.4 percent of the time in the first seven games but with a stronger commitment to the ground game, the Lions are still playing the preferred up-tempo style that suits quarterback Matt Stafford best. They broke out for 45 points last Thursday as Stafford was as sharp as he has been all season, and he will get plenty of single-high safety looks Thursday. Green Bay falls into a solid totals situation as we play the over involving road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off a loss by 7 points or less to a division rival. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Detroit is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. 10* Over (301) Green Bay Packers/(302) Detroit Lions |
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12-03-15 | Panthers v. Predators -155 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Nashville bounced back from an embarrassing home loss against Buffalo by defeating Arizona 5-2 on Tuesday. The momentum of scoring four third period goals should carry over into this one. The Predators could use another win before embarking on a brutal three-game roadtrip at Detroit, Boston and Chicago. Overall, they are 8-4 at home and going back, the Predators are 52-22 in their last 74 home games against teams with a losing road record. Florida meanwhile has won three straight games, all as an underdog, including a 3-1 win at St. Louis on Tuesday as a +150 underdog. This is not the place to keep the streak alive though as the Panthers are winless in their last nine road games against the Predators with their last win coming way back in 1999. Florida is just 3-13 in its last 16 games after a two-game unbeaten streak while Nashville is 52-21 in its last 73 home games after scoring five goals or more in its previous game. Additionally, it falls into a great situation as we play against road underdogs of +100 to +200 in the first half of the season with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after a two game unbeaten streak. This situation is 63-20 (75.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (12) Nashville Predators |
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12-02-15 | VCU v. Middle Tennessee +5 | Top | 62-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee St. had an unusually tough season a year ago but the Blue Raiders had lost four starters from a team that went 24-9. Now they are much more experienced as they bring back five of their top six scorers with all six of those players having started at least nine games. The Blue Raiders are off to a 4-1 start which is already a third of their entire win total from last season and the best part is that they have yet to play a game on their home floor. Fresh off the Great Alaska Shootout title, Middle Tennessee St. has been one of the best home teams in the country over the last four years and hold a 57-8 record in the Murphy Center. VCU has won two straight games since a pair of losses against Wisconsin and Duke by a combined nine points, both of which came on a neutral floor at MSG. The Rams are now playing their first true road game of the season and it is a totally different experience for new head coach Will Wade who took over for Shaka Smart. The team is solid but a lot of key players departed when Smart took off which makes the first road game not ideal. 10* (544) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders |
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12-02-15 | Nuggets v. Bulls OVER 196.5 | Top | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Denver has dropped six straight games and the offense has gotten progressively worse over the stretch as the Nuggets scored 107 points in the first loss and are coming off a season-low 74 points scored at Milwaukee on Monday. The under has come through over the last four games which came after a four-game over run where the offense was much more efficient and the dense was awful. Chicago meanwhile has alternated wins and losses over its last five games but going back further, the Bulls have gone under the total in seven straight games. While their own defense has looked sharp, they have gone against some very tough defenses of late with the last four games coming against teams ranked in the top ten in shooting percentage defense. Denver is ranked 5th worst. The Bulls defense has performed very well this season allowing just 41.1 percent shooting but the pace is the difference as Chicago is the 7th fastest team in the league with 102.2 possessions per game and its 91.3 field goal attempts allowed per game is by far the most. Denver is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games against teams allowing 43 percent shooting or better while the over is 6-2 in the Bulls last eight games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (509) Denver Nuggets/(510) Chicago Bulls |
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12-01-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Nebraska +6.5 | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
After a great 2013-14 season where it finished fourth in the Big Ten and went to the NCAA Tournament, Nebraska had a miserable season last year where they won just 13 games overall including only five within the conference. With some key pieces now gone, some may think there is a complete rebuild in Lincoln but some of those departed pieces should actually make this a better team going forward. Nebraska is off to a 5-2 start with losses at No. 8 Villanova and against No. 17 Cincinnati on a neutral floor so at least the losses were quality. The Huskers are 4-0 at home and even more importantly, they had a long time to gel over the summer as they went on a trip to Spain where they went 4-0 and were granted numerous extra practices. Miami jumped from unranked into the top 15 following blowout wins over Mississippi St., Utah and Butler but then followed that up with a home loss against Northeastern this past Friday. This is the Hurricanes first true road game of the season and Pinnacle Bank Arena is a very underrated home court advantage as the Huskers are 29-7 here the last two plus season including a 16-2 record against non-conference opponents. Going back, the Huskers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after playing a game as an underdog while going 7-0 in its last seven home games after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. 10* (750) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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12-01-15 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans +1 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Both Memphis and New Orleans got off to horrible starts this season but it has been the former that has been able to recover the most. The Grizzlies have won seven of their last nine games including their last game against the winless Sixers so while the recent run has gotten them over .500, this is a team that still has issues. After a solid three-game winning streak that had them going in the right direction, the Pelicans have lost their last two games but those were on the road and they have won their last two home games and three of four. New Orleans has played seven of their last 10 games on the highway so the schedule has been trying and despite that, they have covered their last four games against winning teams. The best news for New Orleans is that Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole will be making their season debuts tonight after missing the first 13 games because of injuries. The Grizzlies are 8-19-2 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while New Orleans is 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games after failing to cover two of their last three games against the spread. 10* (708) New Orleans Pelicans |
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12-01-15 | Magic v. Wolves -1.5 | Top | 96-93 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is the second meeting in two weeks between Orlando and Minnesota and the Timberwolves will be out for some revenge following that overtime defeat. Minnesota is coming off a short two-game roadtrip where it split as it defeated Sacramento on Friday only to follow that up with a loss against the Clippers on Sunday. The Timberwolves opened the season 0-6 at home but have won two straight at the Target Center and while a win over Philadelphia means little, a win over Atlanta last time out was a solid one. Orlando is over .500 for the first time this season following its third straight win on Sunday and it is over .500 for the first time since November 6, 2013. This is a team moving in the right direction but this is not a good spot as the Magic are 2-5 on the road including losses in three straight all by nine points or more. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the Timberwolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (710) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-01-15 | Wizards v. Cavs OVER 202.5 | Top | 97-85 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Washington has gotten off to a horrible start to the season based on expectations coming in and it certainly doesn’t get any easier here. The offense has been atrocious the last three games as the Wizards have scored 87, 78 and 82 points and to no surprise, all of those games stayed below the total. I expect a big effort tonight against an average Cleveland defense that has been very inconsistent. The Cavaliers have stayed below the total in two straight games as the offense has tallied just 90 and 95 points but now they face a Wizards defense that has allowed 105.1 ppg on 46 percent shooting through 14 games, both of which are 25th in the NBA. Cleveland is shooting 46.1 percent while averaging 103.1 ppg and prior to this two-game under run, they had gone over the total in six straight. Here we play the over involving road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, first half of the season. This situation is 41-18 (69.5 percent) to the under since 1996. Meanwhile, the over is 40-17-1 in the Cavaliers last 58 games playing on two days rest. 10* Over (701) Washington Wizards/(702) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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11-30-15 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 41 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
We have seen some duds on Monday night of late with little offensive action but that should change tonight as we have two teams out of playoff contention facing off. Baltimore is coming off a 2-11 homestand but suffered another pair of tough injuries as quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett were both lost for the season and while that could hurt the offense, the opposing defense won't show much resistance. Cleveland meanwhile has lost five straight games and while the offense did little to help, getting Josh McCown back behind center will help immensely as Johnny Manziel was garbage. Now back to the defenses as these are two of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL as Baltimore is allowing 24.9 ppg and Cleveland is allowing 27.7 ppg, 23rd and 30th respectively in the NFL. Cleveland falls into a very high scoring situation as we play the over involving home teams in the second half of the season that are allowing 370 ypg going up against teams allowing between 335 and 370 ypg, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 23-5 (82.1 percent) to the over since 1983. Additionally, the over is 4-0 in the Browns four home games this season while the over is 5-0 in the Ravens last five games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (275) Baltimore Ravens/(276) Cleveland Browns |
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11-30-15 | Spurs v. Bulls +4 | Top | 89-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The Spurs 14-3 record is second best in the NBA, only trailing 18-0 Golden St., following their fifth straight win on Saturday over Atlanta. It was the ninth consecutive win at home to start the season and while a 5-3 road record is respectable, the win at Boston is the only one against a team with a winning record. Chicago is coming off a loss at Indiana to close its four-game roadtrip with a 2-2 record and now the Bulls head home to improve upon their 5-1 record at home. Four of those five wins have come against teams with a winning record so while the Spurs have not had a quality road slate, the Bulls have a very quality home slate. The Bulls fall into a fantastic situation as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having covered four of their last five games against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 64-29 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1996. The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points while the Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (506) Chicago Bulls |
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11-30-15 | Thunder v. Hawks +2.5 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
Oklahoma City has gained some momentum with four straight victories to move to 11-6 on the season but the Thunder have played a very easy schedule thus far. Of those 17 games, only three have come against teams ranked in the top ten in the league and they have gone just 1-2 in those games including a loss in the only road game against a top ten team. On top of that, only six of the first 17 games have been on the highway. Atlanta has been pretty inconsistent of late following a 7-1 start to the season as it has gone just 4-7 over its last 11 games but the majority of those have been on the road. The Hawks are coming off a loss at San Antonio by 20 points but they have followed up their last three losses with wins next time out. Atlanta is 34-19 ATS in its last 53 games against teams with a winning record while going 34-21 in its last 55 games after playing a game on the road. Oklahoma City is just 1-5 ATS in its last sis games against winning teams while going 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (510) Atlanta Hawks |
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11-30-15 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 193.5 | Top | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Boston went to Orlando last night and got throttled by 19 points but more important for our purposes here, it was its third straight under after going over in its previous four games. Now the Celtics are catching a total that is the lowest they have seen all season and the time they have had one south of 200 in 15 consecutive games. The Heat meanwhile have gone under in four straight games but those four games were against teams ranked 24th, 29th and 30th in the NBA in scoring offense while Boston is a top 10 offense. The under has been a trend all season with 15 of 17 staying below the total but only three games overall have come against top 10 offenses. The trend for the over/unders for Miami has seen the number go down in each of these past four games and while this one is back up a bit, it is still in a good range based on the opponent. The over is 6-1 in the Celtics last seven games against teams with a winning record while the over is 6-1 in Heat's last seven games against team with a winning record. 10* Over (501) Boston Celtics/(502) Miami Heat |
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11-30-15 | LSU -5 v. College of Charleston | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
LSU is 3-2 after losses last week by one point to Marquette and in overtime to NC State in neutral court games in Brooklyn. Expectations are high for the Tigers with five star freshman Ben Simmons already off to a fantastic start while another freshman, Antonio Blakeney, is the leading scorer at 16.6 ppg. The big issue for LKSU is that it is living and dying by the three-pointer and that is going to change tonight based on the gameplan head coach Johnny Jones wants to incorporate. The Tigers need more penetration for easier shots which would also get them to the free throw line more. College of Charleston is also 3-2 and while a one-point loss at Davidson was a quality one, a home loss against Coastal Carolina was not. The Cougars were one of the lowest scoring teams in the country last season and while their average is up, they have scored just 61 and 57 points the last two games. After finishing 9-24 last season, they are predicted t once again finish last in the CAA as this team is extremely young. College of Charleston is 9-22 in its last 31 games against winning teams and 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games at home. LSU meanwhile is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against winning teams while going 19-7-2 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss. 10* (521) LSU Tigers |
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11-29-15 | Patriots v. Broncos +3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show |
While it was far from dominating, the Broncos showed they can win without Peyton Manning as Brock Osweiler was very impressive in his first career start. He was 20-27 for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns and while he will face a much tougher defense this week, the fact he got that first start out of the way can be considered bigger. The Denver defense is the reason it is 8-2 as Manning has been a shell of his former self and that defense has a chance to keep the Patriots grounded as they continue to deal with a load of injuries. Give New England credit for doing what it is doing with a huge injury list but this will be a big road test for sure. The schedule has been very favorable of late for the Patriots as four of their last five games have been at home and the lone road game could have and arguably should have resulted in a loss to the Giants. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better that are coming off a win against a division rival. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Denver is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg. Look for the Broncos to put an end to the Patriots undefeated season. 10* (274) Denver Broncos |
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11-29-15 | Boise State v. Arizona -4 | Top | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Arizona lost in a stunner against Providence in the second round of the Wooden Classic following an overtime win over Santa Clara in the first round and it gets a rare opportunity to beat up on a non-conference opponent for a second time early on in the season. The Wildcats hosted Boise St. 10 days ago and defeated the Broncos by 12 points and while that game was at home, the circumstances here call for Arizona to win big again. Boise St. is off to a 3-3 start following a win over Cal-Irvine and a 10-point loss to Michigan St. in the first two rounds. They have a very strong home floor where they are 2-0 but are just 1-3 outside of Taco Bell Arena and their leader, Anthony Drmic, was held to just nine points in the first meeting against Arizona. The defense has been pretty bad for the Wildcats and the day off Saturday should have this team energized for a big effort. The line is on our side here thanks to conflicting runs where Boise St. is 4-0 ATS in its last four games while Arizona is 0-4 ATS in its last four games. That also leads to a great college hoops situation where we play on favorites after failing to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games going up against an opponent after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. This situation is 83-40 ATS (67.5 percent) since 1997 including 22-6 ATS (78.6 percent) the last three seasons. 10* (742) Arizona Wildcats |
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11-29-15 | Wolves v. Clippers OVER 205.5 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
The Clippers had lost four of five games before trouncing New Orleans on Friday with the offense putting up 111 points. That offense has been inconsistent of late but they are still the sixth highest scoring team in the NBA and the recent inconsistencies has led to a run of five straight unders. Minnesota is also coming off a win, its third straight, and it has been the defense that has led the way so something has to give today. That defense has led the Timberwolves to four straight unders but now they face a real challenge. Both teams are in the top ten in the NBA in shooting percentage and we are seeing a significant decrease in the total than each team had in its previous game. The over is 8-2 in the Clippers last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record and the over is 12-3 in their last 15 games following a win. Meanwhile, the over is 51-33 in the Timberwolves last 84 games following one or more consecutive unders with an average of 210 ppg scored in those follow up games. 10* Over (703) Minnesota Timberwolves/(704) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-29-15 | Giants -2.5 v. Redskins | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the NY GIANTS for our NFL Game of the Week. With what took place over Thanksgiving, this has turned into a monumental game for the Giants. Philadelphia got crushed again while Dallas lost Tony Romo for the rest of the season so a victory here puts them two games clear of the Eagles and Redskins and it becomes their division to lose. New York is the clear cut favorite right now and having a two-game lead with five games left, including only one divisional game, would be huge. Washington got blown out for the third time in five games last week and while it returns home with a 4-1 record, this is not the worst time to face the Giants to try and break their five-game skid against them. The Redskins have gone 2-4 in their last six games and the numbers have been worse as they have been outgained by at least 124 yards in five of those. The Giants fall into a great spot where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a cover where the team lost as an underdog, in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Giants are 34-13 ATS in their last 47 road games after two or more consecutive wins against the spread while the Redskins are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss of more than 14 points. 10* (259) New York Giants |
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11-29-15 | Vikings v. Falcons | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on ATLANTA for our Sunday Enforcer. The Vikings had a great run going where they had won five straight games but then ran into a buzzsaw last Sunday at home against the Packers. The defense allowed its highest point total of the season and things won't get any easier here against a desperate Falcons team. Minnesota has won three straight games on the road but none of those were against teams with a winning record. After opening the season 5-0, the Flacons have dropped four of their last five games including three straight to fall out of the NFC South Division race. Despite those four losses in five games, Atlanta has outgained the opponent in four of those games with the lone negative differential being just -16 yards. The Falcons have lost their last two home games but both were by just three points against two .500 teams. Despite being just a game worse than Minnesota, this line is much shorter than it should be as the Falcons are not getting much credit for home field. A big reason is the recent successful Minnesota ATS run while Atlanta has failed to cover in six straight games. A win here likely means a cover and we will grab the Falcons in what is definitely considered a must win to remain in the playoff hunt. 10* (254) Atlanta Falcons |
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11-29-15 | Bills +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on BUFFALO for ur Sunday ultimate Underdog. The Bills lost a tough game against New England Monday night as they were outgained by just 37 total yards and actually held New England to season lows in both yards and points. At 5-5, Buffalo is tied with three other teams for the second AFC Wild Card spot and while a loss would not knock them too far out, a win would be huge. And we aren't even asking the Bills to win, although an outright win would not be surprising, as they are catching a number that is inflated because of the Chiefs recent run. Kansas City is one of those 5-5 teams and the reason the line is so big is due to their four-game winning streak, all coming by at least 10 points. In their most recent home game, they were favored by a field goal over the 4-7 Lions and are now at least double that now against a much better team. The defense has risen to the occasion but Buffalo has a big play offense that was shut down last week as quarterback Tyrod Taylor was far from 100 percent. He is fine now though and going back, the Bills are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss. They also fall into a simple yet effective situation where we play on road teams off a road loss, in November games. This situation is 76-35 ATS (68.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (263) Buffalo Bills |
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11-28-15 | Jets v. Avalanche -115 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Colorado looks to bounce back from a home loss to Ottawa on Wednesday and catches a very good spot tonight to do so. The Avalanche fell 5-3 to the Senators and they were not in fact in a good spot then as they were two days removed from coming home from a seven-game roadtrip where they went 4-3. One of those victories came at Winnipeg and while the Jets will be out to seek revenge, they will have a very tough time in doing so. They are coming off an upset win over Minnesota last night and it was a rare road win as after a 5-2 start on the highway, they have dropped their previous six road games. The Jets are just 15-42 in their last 57 games playing with no rest while going 0-6 this season after scoring three goals or more in two straight games. Colorado meanwhile is 7-1 in its last eight games after allowing five goals or more in its previous game and going back further, the Avalanche are 17-3 in their last 20 games coming off a home loss by two or more goals. 10* (70) Colorado Avalanche |
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11-28-15 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State +7 | Top | 58-23 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on OKLAHOMA ST. for our Saturday Star Attraction. Bedlam has some pretty high stakes this season. Oklahoma can lock up a trip to the College Football Playoff with a win while Oklahoma St. can jump back into the mix, albeit a very small probability of making it through. If nothing else, the Cowboys want to destroy the Sooners chances of going to the final four and they will certainly want to make up for last week's poor effort against Baylor as they had control of their own destiny. Last week, Trevor Knight filled in for Baker Mayfield and he completed only 5 of his 16 passes, for a paltry 76 yards. The Sooners could be in major trouble if Knight gets dinged again. Oklahoma St. is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games and the last time these teams played here and both ranked in the top ten, the Cowboys won in blowout fashion 44-10. 10* (214) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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11-28-15 | St. Louis +15.5 v. Louisville | Top | 57-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
One look at this line and you would think that Louisville comes in as the more experienced team while St. Louis is the green team. It is just the opposite actually and we are catching a very big line here and one in which name is playing a big role. Louisville is off to a 4-0 start with all four games being blowout victories but even though the Cardinals are listed on the bottom, this is a neutral court game in Brooklyn. They bring back just 17 percent of their scoring from last year and only two players have been on the team for more than one season. Meanwhile, St. Louis is also 4-0 and despite an 11-21 record including a 3-15 record in the A-10, things are looking up as the Billikens have four starters back and were able to use a summer trip to get in a lot of extra work. They fall into a sensational situation as we play on teams coming off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season. This situation is 32-7 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (541) St. Louis Billikens |
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11-28-15 | Florida State v. Florida +3 | Top | 27-2 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on FLORIDA for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Gamblers have very short memories and this is a case in point. The Gators opened as favorites and we have now seen a line shift of 5.5 points. This is partly due the fact they almost lost last week to Florida Atlantic but it's pretty clear they had their eyes set on this game leading up to the SEC Championship. Looking at the big picture, Florida has lost only once this season and while it was a game it never should have lost, going down at LSU is not too difficult to do. Florida St. has won two in a row although last week's win came against Chattanooga. The Seminoles are 2-2 on the road and while one loss came at Clemson, losing at Georgia Tech was uncalled for and in the tow wins, they were outgained by Wake Forest and outgained Boston College by just 22 yards. The Seminoles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while the Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. 10* (188) Florida Gators |
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11-28-15 | Connecticut v. Temple -12 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on TEMPLE for our Blowout Game of the Month. It has been quite a season for Temple and it can cap the regular season off in style. If Temple wins Saturday, the Owls win the American Athlete Conference East Division and earn a spot in inaugural AAC championship game against either Navy or Houston. They held Memphis to four field goals last week to get into this position. Connecticut has been solid down the stretch as the Huskies have won three straight and this past weekend they earned their most impressive victory of the campaign, beating previously undefeated Houston, 20-17. They are bowl eligible now and sets up a great letdown possibility. Temple falls into two great situations. First, we play against road underdogs that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 31-4 ATS (88.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points coming off an extremely close win by three points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (156) Temple Owls |
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11-28-15 | North Carolina v. NC State +6 | Top | 45-34 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on NC STATE for our Saturday Enforcer. There is a lot on the line for North Carolina in the eyes of many but in reality, there isn't. The Tar Heels already have their ticket into the ACC Championship next week against Clemson and even though this is a rivalry, peeking ahead to the Tigers is a distinct possibility. North Carolina has reeled off 10 straight wins but against who? This is why they are nowhere near the top of the College Football Playoff rankings. NC State can get to eight wins for a second consecutive season and the Wolfpack have to feel disrespected here getting points at home for the fourth straight meeting at home but this is the best team they have had over that stretch. Additionally, this is the highest North Carolina has been favored by on the road and last week, it was -3.5 against a 5-6 Virginia Tech team which shows the value here. 10* (182) NC State Wolfpack |
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11-28-15 | UCF v. Miami (OH) -2 | Top | 63-64 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
At 3-3, Miami looks to get back over .500 since starting the season 2-1 and it is in good position to do so. The RedHawks have gotten off to an inconsistent start which is a surprise considering the experience of this team that includes eight seniors. There is plenty of depth as they have nine players averaging at least 13 minutes and there is plenty of balance with seven of the top eight scorers from last season back once again. UCF is off to a 1-2 start and while it looked strong in a five-point loss at Davidson, a home loss against Cal Irvine was not a good one and then it took the Knights a big second half against UNC-Greensboro to pull away. Still, they are 3-0 ATS and that is keeping this number within reach along with the fact that Miami has yet to cover a game when favored. The RedHawks fall into a favorable spot where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 63 and 67 ppg going up against teams allowing between 67 and 74 ppg, after a combined score of 110 points or less. This situation is 56-24 ATS (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (522) Miami-Ohio RedHawks |
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11-28-15 | Iowa State +14 v. West Virginia | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on IOWA ST. for our Saturday Ultimate Underdog. While we would typically fade teams that aren't playing to get into a bowl game or with not much to play for, that is not the case today. As reported last Sunday, Iowa St. fired head coach Paul Rhodes after seven seasons but he has been given the chance to coach the final game of the season and being a big time players coach, they will be out to win his final game here. Of the Cyclones eight losses, three have been by four points or less or in overtime and other three losses came against teams either undefeated or with one loss. West Virginia has won three straight games after a four-game losing streak, after a three-game winning streak. This is the final home game for the Mountaineers but they will get everything Iowa St. has thrown at them Saturday. Here, we play against home favorites averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against a team allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) since 1992. 10* (157) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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11-27-15 | Pelicans v. Clippers -6 | Top | 90-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
The Clippers are arguably the second most disappointing team in the NBA with the Rockets taking top prize. Los Angeles fell below .500 for the second time in three games following a home loss against Utah on Wednesday. After starting the season 4-1 at home, the Clippers have lost three straight here. New Orleans meanwhile has won its last three games after a horrific 1-11 start. The last won was its first road win after dropping seven straight and they are not in a good spot to keep the road winning alive. New Orleans is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after a combined score of 225 points or more while going 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. The Clippers meanwhile are 47-28 ATS in their last 75 games after failing to cover 8 or more of their last 10 games against the spread. 10* (724) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-27-15 | Spurs v. Nuggets +9 | Top | 91-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
The Spurs are sitting atop the Southwest Division yet again as they have won three straight games and nine of their last 10. the lone defeat came on the road where San Antonio is 4-3 compared to 8-0 at home. Denver has lost its last four games, the first of which came in San Antonio where the Spurs were favored by 13.5 points so you can see the value difference here. The Spurs are not at full strength tonight as both Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili will be resting with a game against Atlanta tomorrow. Additionally, we play on underdogs after allowing 105 points or more three straight games going up against an opponent after a win by six points or less. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (718) Denver Nuggets |
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11-27-15 | Heat v. Knicks OVER 187 | Top | 97-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Both Miami and New York suffered losses on Wednesday as each offense could not keep up. Expect those offenses to move things along tonight against inconsistent defenses. These teams are a combined 22-7-1 to the under and that is keeping this total down and is actually a bucket lower than what it was when they met on Monday. The over is 10-1 in the Heat's last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points while the over is 7-3-1 in the Knicks last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Additionally, New York is 23-11 to the over in its last 34 games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. 10* Over (705) Miami Heat/(706) New York Knicks |
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11-27-15 | Hurricanes v. Sabres -120 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
The fact that Buffalo is favored here may surprise some but the Sabres are favored for a reason. They have lost six straight games but all of those came against four of the top five teams from the Western Conference and they were actually competitive in most of those with only two losses coming by more than one goal. Carolina is coming off a win in its last game but that was at home against Edmonton and the Hurricanes have had a very favorable schedule of late with 10 of their last 12 games coming at home and both road games resulted in losses. Buffalo falls into a very favorable contrarian situation where we play on favorite against the money line after losses in six or more consecutive games, playing their 3rd game in 5 days. This situation is 71-26 (73.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (16) Buffalo Sabres |
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11-27-15 | UMass v. Buffalo -6.5 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 36 m | Show |
Massachusetts is guaranteed to win three games or less for a fourth consecutive season as it lost its home finale last week Miami-Ohio as a favorite to fall to 2-9. The Minutemen did win their last road game but that came against Eastern Michigan, one of the worst teams in college football. Going back, Massachusetts is 3-21 in its 24 road games since 2012 and if it hasn't been bad enough, it is one of only seven teams in the country that has played 12 games without a bye week. Buffalo was looking good toward getting a bowl berth but has lost two straight games which makes this is must win situation. All six losses this season have come against teams that are already bowl eligible so the Bulls have won the games they needed to win and this is definitely one of those. Buffalo has qualified for only two bowl games in the programs history and will be out to get back after missing out last season. The Minutemen are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing record while the Bulls are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (122) Buffalo Bulls |
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11-27-15 | Boise State v. San Jose State +7.5 | Top | 40-23 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
We played on Boise St. last Friday as we figured the Broncos would bounce back from a rare home loss but instead, they lost two home games in a season for the first time since 1998. Now with the Broncos out of the MWC East Division race, they hit the road in a bad state of mind but they are still heavy favorites simply because it is Boise St. While there is little to play for now for the Broncos, San Jose St. has a lot to play for. The Spartans need a win here to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2012 when it went 11-2. There will be some extra incentive as back in 2013, the Spartans also finished 6-6 but were snubbed for a bowl game. The situation is pretty similar as the Spartans needed a win in their final game to get to six wins and they did it with a victory over No. 16 Fresno St. They have lost twice at home, one against San Diego St. which is 7-0 in the MWC and the other against BYU by just one point. Boise St. has dominated this series but this is the first meeting since 2010 so the run is meaningless here. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a loss as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (142) San Jose St. Spartans |
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11-27-15 | Iowa v. Nebraska +1.5 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 31 m | Show |
Now it is becoming very real for Iowa which moved to 11-0 following a win over Purdue last Saturday and it has moved up to No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings. It was a confusing move considering the Hawkeyes were actually outgained in that game and have not defeated any team of real significance. Nebraska is far from significant but a few bounces its way and it could be. Five of the Huskers six losses have come by five points or less so they have been on the cusp of a great season. This line is telling us a lot as typically, a No. 3 team in the nation is usually favored by more than one point over a team with a losing record. Nebraska needs this game to become bowl eligible and falls into a great situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 95-44 ATS (68.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Nebraska is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games teams averaging 34 or more ppg while the Hawkeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a non-winning home record. 10* (118) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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11-27-15 | USC v. Xavier -1.5 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Give credit to USC as it is off to a 5-0 start for the first time since beginning the 2000-01 campaign 8-0. The Trojans upset Wichita St. on Thursday but the Shockers are overvalued this season as they already have a loss to Tulsa as well. USC was expected to be much improved but now comes another big teat. Xavier is also 5-0 and excluding the one true road game where it was an underdog, and won outright, the Musketeers have been favored by double-digits in all of their other games. They are loaded again this year with a very deep and experience roster and we definitely saw that yesterday. Xavier has covered five of its last six games against winning teams and the fact that USC has covered all five games is giving us excellent value with this low number. 10* (742) Xavier Musketeers |
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11-26-15 | Evansville +2.5 v. Providence | Top | 64-74 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Providence on paper should be a much bigger favorite in the eyes of many based on the name factor but in reality, I question if the Friars should even be the favorites. They have one of the best point guards in the nation in Kris Dunn but the cupboard is kind of bare after that. The loss of LaDontae Henton is huge and only one other starter is back besides Dunn, forward Ben Bentil. Evansville has not lost since the semis of the MVC Tournament last season as an invite to the CIT catapulted into a championship of any kind for the first time in program history. The Purple Aces have now won eight straight games and they have eyes on a bigger prize this season. They have all five starters back from last season and eight of their top nine scorers return from that 24-12 team. This includes the all-conference inside-outside duo of Egidijus Mockevicius and D.J. Balentine. This is the biggest test of the season but one it should pass with no issues. Evansville has a solid situation here as well as we play on teams that outscored opponents by four or more ppg last season, with three or more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (523) Evansville Purple Aces |
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11-26-15 | Bears v. Packers -8.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 17 m | Show |
We won with the Packers this past Sunday against the Vikings and while it was not a thing of beauty, a win is a win and it was a much needed victory to stop the bleeding of a three-game losing streak. Now Green Bay will be out to avoid losing two straight games at home which has happened only once since 2009 and it needs to be pointed out that Aaron Rodgers did not play as he was injured. Rodgers has not lost two straight home games since 2008, his first year as the Packers starting quarterback. Chicago lost a tough game to the Broncos on a failed two-point conversion which snapped a two-game winning streak and now the Bears have to hit the road on short rest. Surprisingly, the defense has played at a high level of late, allowing 19, 13 and 17 points the last three weeks but now comes the biggest test of the bunch. Here, we play on teams after five consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. This situation is 44-17 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1983. Chicago is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after having won two out of their last three games while Green Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a road win. While this is considered a big rivalry, the Packers have won 12 of the lat 14 meetings and they keep it rolling here with another big victory. 10* (110) Green Bay Packers |
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11-26-15 | Texas Tech +1.5 v. Texas | Top | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 55 h 44 m | Show |
While this is a big game for Texas if it wants to retain any sort of hope for the postseason, I think this is just as big of a game for Texas Tech even though it is already bowl eligible. It has been a nightmare of a season for Texas which has a quality win over Oklahoma but the other three wins are against teams a combined 8-24. The loss by the Sooners is certainly perplexing but anything can happen in a rivalry game and we can make that argument here. Texas has owned this series with a 30-5 record at home against the Red Raiders and Texas has not lost here since 1997, a span of eight straight wins. Of course, those Texas teams were a lot stronger than this current edition and Texas Tech knows it can take advantage and get some long awaited revenge. Winning this also knocks a potential bowl game away from Texas and Texas Tech would love to hand that to the Longhorns. The Red Raiders defense is horrid but they have struggled against the best offenses in the conference as they allowed 55, 63, 63 and 70 points to TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. In all other FBS games, they have allowed 28.3 ppg and Texas isn't even averaging that many points. On the other side, Texas Tech will have no issues with a very weak Texas defense as the Red Raiders are ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and No. 3 in total offense. They also fall into a solid rushing situation where we play on road underdogs that are allowing 5.25 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 6.0 or more rushing ypc last game. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (113) Texas Tech Red Raiders |
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11-26-15 | Panthers v. Cowboys | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -102 | 73 h 17 m | Show |
After just a couple series, you could see the difference with Tony Romo in at quarterback with the Cowboys and they are far from out of it in the NFC East. He finished with two interceptions and had an average 83.7 quarterback rating but it was his first game after missing seven games and it is obvious he gives the Cowboys a chance to win every week. Speaking of winning every week, that is what Carolina has done all season. Winning is most important but it is hard to ignore the fact that the Panthers have played the easiest schedule in the NFL. Four of their last five games have been at home with the lone road game coming at lowly Tennessee. There is a very interesting comparison between these two teams as the Panthers have not lost a regular season game since Week 13 of the 2014 NFL Season, a span of 14 straight games. Just like the Cowboys, they had gone winless in the seven previous games before starting their streak. Dallas has won seven straight regular season games with Romo under center and going back to the start of last season, the Cowboys are 15-3 in their last 18 regular season game when Romo starts. The Panthers are just the second team in NFL history to start 10-0 and open its next game as an underdog and that is a big reason Carolina is already getting over three-quarters of the action early in the week. Going back, Dallas is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games after having lost three out of their last four games. 10* (108) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-26-15 | Eagles v. Lions | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 18 m | Show |
The Lions have won two straight games and bring some momentum in Thanksgiving Day. While their season is long gone, it is pretty clear they are out to win still and while the offense has been below average the last four games, they catch the Eagles at the perfect time. Or in my opinion, the wrong time. Philadelphia is in real trouble following a bad home loss to the Buccaneers, its second straight loss, but the NFC East is still wide open and there is time for the Eagles to recover. While Mark Sanchez had an up and down game, Matt Stafford has been average pretty much all season. Here are some surprising numbers. Both entered Sunday with 37 wins, but Sanchez had an 86.6 passer rating compared with Stafford's 83.7 rating. Stafford is in 0-2 in the playoffs and Sanchez is 4-2, including two trips to the AFC championship. Yesterday's loss notwithstanding, there have been some bad breaks along the way for the Eagles and after an embarrassing loss to one of the worst teams in the NFL over the last decade, that is the time players step up. Philadelphia falls into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Philadelphia is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 gamers after allowing 40 or more points while the Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following two or more consecutive wins. 10* (105) Philadelphia Eagles |
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11-25-15 | Michigan +3 v. Connecticut | Top | 60-74 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Last season was a rare downer for Michigan as it went just 16-16 overall following a run of very successful seasons. Injuries played a big role in the struggles but now at full strength, the Wolverines have the potential for another big run. Michigan is loaded as it brings back 92.5 percent of its scoring, 90 percent of its rebounding and 96.3 percent of its assists which includes all five starters coming back. They are coming off an embarrassing home loss against Xavier as they were crushed on the boards which makes this a great bounceback spot. Connecticut is off to a 3-0 start but has defeated no one along the way but is favored here because of the Michigan loss and the fact that is ranked 18th in the country. The Huskies bring back a solid roster as well but the loss of Ryan Boatright is a huge one. The Wolverines are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home and they bounce back again here. 10* (755) Michigan Wolverines |
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11-25-15 | Heat v. Pistons +1.5 | Top | 81-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Miami is off to a great 9-4 start this season including wins in three straight games but the schedule could not have started any easier. Of those 13 games, 10 have been at home including the last seven with only two of those games coming against teams with a winning record. Overall, the Heat have played the easiest schedule in the NBA and the only road win came against the Timberwolves. Detroit started hot but has lost two straight games and six of its last eight games to fall to 7-7 overall. Unlike the Heat, the Pistons have played a tough schedule, ranked sixth overall, with nine of those 14 games taking place on the road. The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 10 points while the Pistons are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (708) Detroit Pistons |
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11-25-15 | Cavs v. Raptors +2 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Cleveland is coming off a three-game sweep in its most recent homestand to move to a perfect 8-0 at home and now it hits the road where it is just 3-3 on the season. It has been a very favorable schedule for the Cavaliers as they have played the second easiest slate in the NBA through the first month. Because of who they are, they come in as a road chalk while having played just one team with a winning record away from home. Toronto has withstood a very tough schedule through the first month of the season as it is 9-6 following a disappointing 2-3 west coast roadtrip. 11 of the first 15 games have been on the highway and the Raptors are 3-1 at home with the lone defeat coming by just a bucket. Cleveland is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games the last two seasons after scoring 105 points or more two straight games while the Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (710) Toronto Raptors |
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11-25-15 | Wizards +3 v. Hornets | Top | 87-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Charlotte has won three straight games but it has not exactly been against top level opposition as those wins came against teams a combined 8-36 and all three teams are ranked 25th or worse in power ratings. The Hornets are 6-1 against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league but just 2-5 against every other team. Washington hasn't exactly been lighting things on fire as it is just 6-5 following a loss at home last night against Indiana which snapped a three-game winning streak. While Charlotte is 6-1 at home, the Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record while going 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The underdog has covered five straight games in this series and we expect that to continue here. 10* (703) Washington Wizards |
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11-24-15 | Bulls v. Blazers OVER 201.5 | Top | 93-88 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Chicago has not gotten off to a good start on this west coast swing as it has split the first two games but you cannot fault the Bulls for a loss against Golden St. as no team has been able to solve the Warriors thus far. Both of those games stayed below the total to make it three straight unders and these last two have had closing totals higher than tonight's. The offense will get a boost tonight with the return of Derrick Rose as three days off since the Golden St. game has given his ankle time to heal. Portland has won two straight games since suffering through a seven-game losing streak. The defense has been the difference but those games came against the dreadful Lakers and the struggling Clippers. After seven straight overs, Portland has gone under the total in four of its last five games and with that, the over/under is affected as it is the second lowest over this six-game stretch, the lowest being a point lower against the Spurs, which posses the best defense in the NBA. The Bulls possess a better offense than in the past and they are playing at a much fast pace than in the past as they are averaging 102.4 possessions per game, seventh most in the NBA. While the Chicago defense is still solid, Portland is 15-4 to the over in its last 19 games against teams allowing 43 percent shooting or lower. 10* Over (509) Chicago Bulls/(510) Portland Trailblazers |
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11-24-15 | Ohio +13.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 26-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
It was an unfortunate situation for Ohio in mid-October when injuries really hit the team hard after a 5-1 start and the Bobcats lost three straight games to essentially fall out of the MAC East race. The real Ohio team has been on display the last two weeks, granted against much weaker opposition, but this team is much better than what this line is telling us here. Northern Illinois needs the win to go to its sixth straight MAC Championship but winning by more than two touchdowns may be too much to ask for against the surging Bobcats. Ohio combined for over 600 rushing yards in the Bowling Green and Kent St. game and then put together a 607-yard game against Ball St. The Huskies are rolling with six straight wins and have not lost against the number over that stretch which is a big reason this number is as big as it is. Northern Illinois has been a double-digit favorite three times within the conference but the best of those teams was Ball St. at 3-8 and the Huskies are actually favored by more against Ohio. This is not considered a big rivalry but it has played like one over the last few years as this is always a closely contested game. This includes a win by Northern Illinois last year in Athens and the interesting part is that the Huskies were favored by one point there. That makes this a minimum 12-point swing from then and that is too big of a gap as these teams are actually closer to each other this year than last year. 10* (103) Ohio Bobcats |
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11-24-15 | Murray State v. Pepperdine -2.5 | Top | 59-55 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
**6:00 PM ET start** Murray St. will be a pretty popular pick here based on name. The Racers have been the best team in the OVC for years and are coming a season where they went 18-0 in the conference, part of a solid 29-6 season. They are expected to win the conference again because of the overall weakness of it but the same type of domination likely will not happen. Murray St. is breaking in another head coach after Steve Prohm left to take the job at Iowa St. and more importantly, the Racers lost four starters. This included Cameron Payne who was a first round NBA draft pick as well as two other double-digit scorers. Pepperdine easily defeated a very good Duquesne team on Monday to move to 2-2 on the season. The losses have come against UCLA and Fresno St., two conference contenders and they are far from bad losses. People may be surprised that the Waves are favored here but this is a team that is trending the right way as they have increased their win total in each of the last four years, culminating with an 18-14 record last season including a 10-8 mark in the WCC. Pepperdine is predicted to finish third in the conference this season behind Gonzaga and BYU so things are going very good in Malibu. The Waves have all five starters back and are very balanced as evidenced by all five starters scoring in double-figures yesterday. 10* (526) Pepperdine Waves |
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11-23-15 | Bills +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The Bills picked up a much needed win last Thursday over the Jets to get back over .500 for the first time since Week Five but most are not giving them a chance to stay there very long. New England is 9-0 and continues to seemingly run on cruise control although they were given a gift last week against the Giants. Injuries continue to be a problem though and they keep getting worse as the Patriots are without Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis as well as battling injuries on the offensive line. These are huge blows offensively and we can look back at the first meeting and what their absences mean. Lewis (138) and Edelman (109) accounted for 247 of New England's 507 total yards (48.7 percent) and scored three touchdowns. The Bills are healthy on offense and can keep up in this one against a New England defense that has looked good at times but it very average. The Bills rank sixth in the NFL, averaging 25.7 ppg which is on pace to be their highest season total since 1991 (28.6 ppg). Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has thrown a touchdown pass in all seven of his games this season and he is the only quarterback completing better than 70 percent of his throws. LeSean McCoy is at full strength and on the season, Buffalo is averaging 3.1 yards before contact per rush, which is second in the NFL behind the Steelers (3.2). Buffalo has two awesome situations on its side. First, we play against home teams that are averaging 370 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on road underdogs after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (475) Buffalo Bills |
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11-23-15 | Magic +9.5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-117 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
After starting the season with seven consecutive covers, Orlando has covered just once over their last six games as linesmakers finally adjusted to catch up. The Magic did go 3-3 in those games and they are now at 6-7 overall with only one of those losses coming by double-digits. This is a significantly improved team and they catch a Cleveland team that is pretty thin with some injuries. Mo Williams and Timofey Mozgov are both out and while the Cavaliers are still loaded, they have had a tough time covering big numbers. Of course because it is Cleveland, the lines are inflated and with that, the Cavaliers are just 1-6 ATS in their seven games when favored by six or more points. Orlando meanwhile is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog of six or more points and it is one of just two teams in the NBA with a losing record that is getting outscored by less than one ppg which reiterates the point about games being close. Going back, Orlando is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games against teams outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg. Additionally, the Magic are 9-0 ATS in their last nine road games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games against the spread while the Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after two or more consecutive wins this season. 10* (701) Orlando Magic |
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11-23-15 | St. John's v. Vanderbilt -16 | Top | 55-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
**2:30 PM ET Start** The Maui Invitational gets elite programs every year and the 2015 edition is no different. Two years ago when the teams were announced, it looked even more stacked with a St. John's team that was finally heading in the right direction and was ready to be significant again. Sadly, the Red Storm are trending in the wrong direction once again. St. John's comes in with a 3-0 record but records are deceiving as those three wins came against some very poor teams and now they take a big step up in competition. New head coach Chris Mullin was a great hire but with just three players are back from last year, none of which are starters and averaged a combined 4.0 ppg, he has a long road ahead of him. Vanderbilt is also 3-0 but much more experienced and one of the best shooting teams in the nation. The Commodores are not sneaking up on anyone as they come in ranked No. 17 in the nation and while this line seems big, the gap in talent is huge. We play against underdogs in a game involving two teams who had winning percentages between .600 and .800 from last season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (744) Vanderbilt Commodores |
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11-22-15 | George Mason +19 v. Virginia | Top | 66-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
After getting stunned against George Washington, Virginia has bounced back nicely here in Charleston with a pair of blowout victories against Bradley and Long Beach St. The Cavaliers will be going for the Charleston Classic championship tonight but they are laying a huge number against a team that has already picked up two upset wins. George Mason opened the season with a home loss against Colgate and then a loss at Mercer but somehow regrouped and defeated Mississippi and Oklahoma St. in the first two rounds of this tournament. The Patriots are coming off a miserable season a year ago where they went 9-22 which led to the firing of head coach Paul Hewitt and the hiring of Dave Paulsen who comes over from Bucknell where he had a lot of success. This is an experienced team that features five players that started a combined 149 games. Buying into the new system was necessary and it looks as though that is already taking shape. George Mason has a great situation in its favor as we play on neutral court teams as an underdog after beating the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, George Mason is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games away from home after playing a game as an underdog while the Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. 10* (539) George Mason Patriots |
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11-22-15 | Bengals v. Cardinals -5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -104 | 55 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on ARIZONA for our Sunday night Primetime. Trying to figure out which Bengals team is true, the one that went 8-0 or the one we saw last week, is a difficult task. I think they are a little in-between as they certainly are not as bad as they were last week but they are not as good as their first eight-game record indicated. Now things get extremely tough as Cincinnati head to Arizona to face one of the best teams in the league. They have played only two teams that currently possess a winning record and this is the best one yet. Arizona is 7-2 and last week was a great indication of the makeup of this team. The Cardinals blew a 19-0 lead and while most teams would have folded, Arizona fought harder and came away with the win. They have outgained seven of nine opponents, including both losses as turnovers did them in, and overall they have the No. 1 offense and No. 3 defense in the NFL. This is just the second home game in six weeks so this place will be going nuts come Sunday night. Here, we play on home teams coming off an upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams with winning percentages at .750 or better. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (470) Arizona Cardinals |
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11-22-15 | Celtics v. Nets +5.5 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
This is the second of a home-and-home set between Boston and Brooklyn with the Celtics easily winning the first matchup on Friday by 25 points. They were nine-point favorites there and based on the venue change, they should be favored between 2.5-3 points here so you can see the line value were are getting. Boston has been playing well with wins in six of their last eight games including three straight road wins but now it comes in the highest it has been favored on the road all season. Brooklyn is off to a rough start but the schedule has been tough with six of their last seven games taking place on the road. The one home game resulted in a win by a bucket over Atlanta and the other two prior home losses were very competitive. The Nets fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play against divisional road favorites that are coming off an home win scoring 110 or more points. This situation is 44-17 ATS (72.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Brooklyn is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games after having lost two of its last three games and 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Celtics are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (506) Brooklyn Nets |
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11-22-15 | Packers +1 v. Vikings | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 51 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on GREEN BAY for our Sunday Enforcer. After another loss, people are starting to give up on the Packers but this week it could be do or die. Green Bay dropped its third straight game with a home loss against the Lions despite winning the yardage battle by 85 yards. Now the Packers hit the road again to face one of the hottest teams in the league but it is a series they have owned. Aaron Rodgers has looked lost the last three games and while teams change, the Vikings are one of his favorite opponents to face. Minnesota has won five straight games to move to 7-2 overall and into first place in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered an amazing eight straight games and they are doing it by not even being dominant. They have been outgained in five of their nine games and with the exception of a domination in Detroit, the other three plus yardage variances were just 27, 22 and 14 yards. Here, we play on road teams in conference games where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Packers are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 divisional games and 23-11-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (463) Green Bay Packers |
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11-22-15 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 33-3 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on SAN DIEGO for out Sunday Ultimate Underdog. It has been a rough start for the Chargers as they are 2-7 overall following a current five-game losing streak. They are so much better than the record shows however as they have been close to winning all but one of their losses and they have been outgained only twice in nine games overall. San Diego has lost three straight games at home after opening 2-0 and it is in a great spot to get back into the win column. Kansas City is coming off an upset win at Denver last week but clearly the Broncos were not the same Broncos. The Chiefs have now won and covered three straight games and just like that, they are now being placed as road favorites. This is based on records and nothing else. The Chiefs are getting outgained overall on the season by a couple yards while San Diego is +41.8 in yardage differential. Kansas City falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 57-26 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Chargers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (474) San Diego Chargers |
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11-22-15 | Cowboys -1 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on DALLAS for our NFL Game of the Week. The losing streak has reached seven games for the Cowboys after falling to Tampa Bay 10-6 last week. It shows what the lack of a quality quarterback can do but at the same time, Dallas was in all but one of those games so a couple breaks here and there and the record could be a lot better. Tony Romo is back this week which is a big spark for the offense and it comes at the right time as they can not afford many more losses. Miami pulled off the upset at Philadelphia last week despite getting outgained by 147 total yards. That was the end of a three-game roadtrip and the schedule this season has been tough so far with just two true home games prior to this week. The home field advantage down here is not great however. At 4-5, Miami is still hanging around for a playoff spot but the upcoming schedule is brutal. Dallas has Carolina on deck Thanksgiving which makes this game even more important for the Cowboys which fall into a great situation. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a road loss, with a losing record. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Miami is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games following a win by three points or less. 10* (455) Dallas Cowboys |
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11-22-15 | Jets -3 v. Texans | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the NY JETS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Jets opened the season 4-1 but have dropped three of their last four games including a tough loss against former head coach Rex Ryan and the Bills last Thursday. This is still a very solid team and this is a perfect opportunity for the defense to get back no track after a few rough games. At 5-4, they are right in the thick of the playoff picture but this is a game they cannot lose as the rest of the schedule is extremely difficult. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be under center after thumb surgery on his non-throwing hand. Houston upset the Bengals this past Monday and now has to play on short rest against a team on extended rest. The Texans are tied with the Colts for first place in the AFC South so this is obviously a big game as well but having T.J. Yates is certainly not ideal. The defense has flexed its muscles the last two weeks but that changes here. The Jets have a solid situation on their side as we play on road teams in conference games where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Texans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (461) New York Jets |
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11-21-15 | New Mexico +6.5 v. USC | Top | 82-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
We won with USC opening night as the Trojans dominated San Diego in a 38-point victory. They had a great matchup there and while they followed that up with a victory in their next game against Monmouth, it was much less impressive as the defense allowed double the points, going from 45 to 90. USC remains home again but gets its biggest test of the season with New Mexico coming to town and the home court edge is insignificant with under 6,000 fans showing up for those first two games combined. The Lobos are off to a 3-0 start and while this is also the biggest test, they already have a road win to their credit against rival New Mexico St. They struggled last season, going just 15-16 but they lost a lot from the previous season and injuries also did not help as 52 games were lost between five players. They were offensively challenged but those issues are in the past now as they are ranked eighth in the nation in shooting percentage at 54.7 percent. New Mexico has always been relevant but the problems last season have them under the radar going into this year and while USC is not an elite program, this would be a big win going forward. The Trojans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games while the Lobos are 41-19-1 ATS in their last 61 games following a win of more than 20 points. 10* (735) New Mexico Lobos |
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11-21-15 | Tulane v. SMU -3 | Top | 21-49 | Win | 100 | 100 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on SMU for our NCAA Game of the Year. SMU will be the play here and while backing a 1-9 team doesn't seem feasible, the situation could not be any better. It has been a tough season for the Mustangs but we knew that was going to be the case but this is their final game on the season and it takes place in primetime on an ESPN channel. SMU has lost only one game to an FBS team with a losing record and that to a decent East Carolina team that was playing its best football of the season at the time. Since then, the Mustangs have played five straight games against teams .500 or better not to mention earlier games against Baylor and TCU. Overall, they have played the 41st ranked schedule and while there was a loss against FCS James Madison, the Dukes are ranked in the top ten in the latest FCS coaches poll. Tulane is not much better and I don't think it is any better at all. The Green Wave are coming off a win over Army last week to snap a five-game losing streak and it was quite the celebration afterward. It was their first road win of the season and they have only won 12 road games since 2005, none of which have come consecutively. SMU has been favored only once against an FBS team and that resulted in a blowout win over North Texas. The Mustangs fall into a great situation as we play on home teams in the seconds half of the season in a game involving two teams outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 42 points or more last game. This situation is 51-18 ATS (73.9 percent) since 1992. Tulane is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games coming off a win as a road underdog including 0-8 ATS off a win by three points or less. Additionally, we are getting value with the number because of the win last week and the fact it has covered four straight while has failed to cover four in a row. 10* (388) SMU Mustangs |
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11-21-15 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia OVER 50.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 2 m | Show |
11-21-15 | Rice +3 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -104 | 51 h 57 m | Show |
After a 4-3 start, Rice has lost three straight games but there is still room to become bowl eligible and the schedule sets up well for it to happen. After facing 2-8 Texas-San Antonio, the Owls square off against Charlotte to close the season so a 6-6 record is more than doable. The job head coach David Bailiff has done has been outstanding as this could be the fourth straight bowl game for Rice, something that has never happened in the history of the program. Rice struggles against potent passing attacks but that certainly is not the case of Texas-San Antonio. The Roadrunners are coming off a win over Charlotte but it came by just three points and it was the eighth time this season they have been outpassed. They were outgained overall and on the season, they have been outgained in all four home games where they are winless. Despite a horrible season, this is the third straight game that Texas-San Antonio has been the favorite which is surprising. Rice is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games against teams with a losing record while going 21-10-1 ATS in its last 32 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (395) Rice Owls |
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11-21-15 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh -2 | Top | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 48 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on PITTSBURGH for our Saturday Enforcer. Pittsburgh snapped a two-game slide with a road victory over Duke to remain in the hunt in the ACC Coastal Division as it trails the Tar Heels by a game. Because of the loss to North Carolina, the Panthers have to finish a game better but with their final two games taking place at home and North Carolina playing its final two games on the road, this is the setup they need. The three losses this season have come against teams a combined 28-2, two of which were by one possession, so the 7-3 is actually better than it looks. Louisville has won four straight games but each of those four game have come against teams currently at 3-7 and the Cardinals own just one victory against a team with a winning record. Three of those four games were at home while the lone road win was at Wake Forest by just one point. While Pittsburgh has yet to cover a game at home this season, it is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games coming off a double-digit conference victory while the Cardinals are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (320) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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11-21-15 | Michigan State +14 v. Ohio State | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on MICHIGAN ST. for our Saturday Star Attraction. The Big Ten season really gets going Saturday as Michigan St. heads to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes with the winner taking over first place in the East Division. Ohio St. has not lost a game since Game Two of last season and while unblemished this year, it really hasn't been tested with the exception of a game against Penn St. The Buckeyes continue to be overvalued as proven by their 3-7 record against the spread yet they come in pretty big favorites against a team just one back behind them. Michigan St. feasibly should be undefeated this season but it got a bad deal in the loss against Nebraska two games back. The Spartans bounced back with a win and cover last week even though they were outgained by the Terrapins and after starting the season 0-6 ATS, they have covered three of their last four games. They fall into a situation where we play on road underdogs after allowing nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (371) Michigan St. Spartans |
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11-21-15 | Duke +2.5 v. Virginia | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 28 m | Show |
This is a game where the wrong team is favored in my opinion but the reason is that Duke is riding a three-game losing streak, both straight up and against the number. The last two have been blowouts and all three came against winning teams and Virginia does not fall into that category. The Blue Devils have their six wins for bowl eligibility but two more wins (Wake Forest next week) would boost the chance of a better bowl. The Cavaliers are 3-7 with one win over William & Mary of the FCS by just six points and the other victories coming against teams both of which are 3-7. The loss against Louisville last week killed any chance of a postseason berth for Virginia so expect a sleepwalking effort here. The Cavaliers have covered four straight games but they were dogs in all of those and they are 0-3 ATS this season as favorites. Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 and 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or less last games. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (351) Duke Blue Devils |
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11-21-15 | Georgia Tech v. Miami (Fla) +2.5 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
We are at the point of the season with only a few games remaining where teams are just playing out the string while others are still striving to win and improve their record. We are seeing both sides here as Georgia Tech is coming off a loss last Thursday, its seventh loss in its last eight games, to eliminate it from bowl contention and snapping its streak of 18 consecutive bowl games. As rocky of a season Miami has had, it is bowl eligible for a third straight season as it is 6-4. The four losses have all been against teams with a winning record, three of which have come against teams a combined 27-3. The Hurricanes are 4-1 at home with this being their final home game of the season. Georgia Tech will be very disinterested here after especially with rival Georgia on deck next week, a game they will treat as their bowl game. The Yellow Jackets are 0-7 ATS after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while going 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. 10* (366) Miami Hurricanes |
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11-20-15 | Air Force v. Boise State -12 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 43 m | Show |
Boise St. is coming off a shocking loss at home against New Mexico last weekend, just the fifth time since 2000 that the Broncos have lost at home. They no longer control their own destiny to win the MWC East Division but they are not out of it yet. The loss last week was not only shocking because of the Broncos huge home field edge but because of the way it happened. Boise St. outgained the Lobos by 225 total yards, had a 40-11 first down advantage and held New Mexico to 0-10 on third down. They hurt themselves by not getting the job done in the redzone so we will see a more efficient effort here. Air Force has won four straight games following a home upset over Utah St. which registered its 12th straight win at home. The road is an issue as the Falcons are 1-3 with the lone victory coming at 2-9 Hawaii and they have not defeated a winning team on the road since 2011. Their run, along with the skewed Boise St. loss is keeping this number down much lower than it should be. The Broncos have been outgained only twice this season and by a combined 21 total yards so they have been extremely dominant and we will see that domination here. Boise St. is 32-11 ATS in its last 43 games after failing to cover two of its last three games while going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. Air Force is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 road games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. 10* (318) Boise St. Broncos |
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11-20-15 | Rockets +5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 84-96 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
After four consecutive losses, the Rockets fired head coach Kevin McHale and they were well on their way to a fifth straight defeat as they trailed Portland by 17 points. But as we all know, no lead is safe in the NBA and Houston rallied in the fourth quarter to send the game into overtime which it won by five points. That is the type of win the Rockets desperately needed and it is one that can be carried forward. On the flip side, it was the fifth straight non-cover so we are getting line value because of it. It has not been a great start for the Grizzlies either as they are 6-6 although they have won three straight games heading into tonight. The last one came back on Monday however so some of the positive momentum may have been lost with the lengthy time off. Going back, the Grizzlies are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a losing record while the underdog has covered five of the last six meetings in this series. Houston meanwhile is 54-30 ATS in its last 84 road games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. 10* (511) Houston Rockets |
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