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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-23-16 | Texas v. Kansas -11.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on KANSAS for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Kansas is one of a few perennial power teams in college basketball that is getting roughed up more than most expected. The Jayhawks have lost two of their last three games including a blowout loss at Oklahoma St. on Tuesday by 19 points which was just the Cowboys second conference win. I expect Kansas to come out strong as it has basically gone five straight games where it has not looked great. A triple OT win over Oklahoma was solid but didn't great at home in doing so while wins over doormats TCU and Texas Tech were not pretty. Texas used to be a power but there have been recent struggles so an upset win at West Virginia by seven points as a 12-point underdog was a shocker. That was the third straight win for the Longhorns, which also upset Iowa St. during the streak but they head to Lawrence at a bad time. Kansas has won 33 straight games at home and under head coach Bill Self, the Jayhawks are 31-6 following a defeat so there is no question motivation will be present. 10* (550) Kansas Jayhawks |
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01-23-16 | Duke -4 v. NC State | Top | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Duke is laying the number on the road and while we don't normally advocate laying road chalk, we could not ask for a better spot here. The Blue Devils are coming off a loss at home Monday against Syracuse which was their third straight loss and as frustrating as they are, all of those games came down to the final seconds. They are on their longest losing streak since a four-game slide to end the 2006-07 season. NC State meanwhile snapped its five-game losing streak to open ACC play with a huge upset at Pittsburgh as the Wolfpack won by 17 points as a nine-point underdog. While that could provide a much needed boost in confidence, I see the opposite happening as this is the classic letdown spot and they could not be hosting Duke at the worst time. Duke certainly remembers its visit here last season as it lost by 12 points as a nine-point road chalk, snapping a 14-0 start to the season so there will be no looking past this team even with a tough game at Miami Monday night. 10* (551) Duke Blue Devils |
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01-23-16 | Northwestern +9 v. Indiana | Top | 57-89 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
While many predicted Maryland and Michigan St. to be sitting atop the Big Ten at this point in the season, Indiana has rolled through the first part of the conference schedule and it tied with Iowa at 6-0. While the Hawkeyes have defeated some powerful teams, Indiana has not as a win over Ohio St. is the best of the six conference victories. A victory at Nebraska was decent while a win against Wisconsin no longer packs the same punch. This was the year that Northwestern was supposed to break out and make its first ever NCAA Tournament and while the season is far from done, the Wildcats need a quality win. They are 15-5 overall including 3-4 in the conference and they also own similar wins against Nebraska and Wisconsin. Northwestern is coming off an overtime loss at Maryland and that would have been a huge victory which puts even more emphasis on this one. Even still, we are seeing a very inflated line that Northwestern does not deserve to be getting. 10* (533) Northwestern Wildcats |
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01-23-16 | South Carolina v. Tennessee +1.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
Tennessee has shown signs this season of getting over the top and becoming a prominent team once again but then it goes backward once again. Coming off a huge win over Florida by 14 points in a game that was never close was supposed to provide some huge momentum but instead, the Volunteers lost consecutive games, narrowly defeated a bad Mississippi St. team and then most recently got throttled by Vanderbilt on Wednesday. Now sitting at 9-9 overall and 2-4 in the SEC, there is not much more room for error which makes this a big game especially with five of the next seven games on the road. South Carolina has been the biggest surprise in the conference thus far as it is off to a 17-1 start including 4-1 in the conference. We played against the Gamecocks when they lost at Alabama and I expect another dud here. They are coming off an overtime win at Mississippi earlier this week and their only real sound game this season on the highway was at Auburn which isn't saying a lot. Look for Tennessee to snap its two-game home skid after starting 8-0. 10* (540) Tennessee Volunteers |
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01-22-16 | Bucks v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The Rockets were riding a five-game winning streak but have since lost three of their last four games including a 123-114 setback against Detroit on Wednesday. That was their second straight loss at home where they are just two games over .500 but since a 3-7 start, they are 10-4 in their last 14 home games. The schedule has been against them but they have taken care of business when needed. Houston has not lost at home against a team with a losing record since November 11th and since then has gone 7-0 against sub-.500 teams at the Toyota Center. Milwaukee has won three straight games including the last two coming on the road where it is just 7-18 through 25 games. The Bucks are riding their longest winning streak since early November when they won four straight games but are in a tough situation tonight. Houston will be without Dwight Howard who has been ruled out with a sprained ankle but that is actually doing us a favor with the line so while his absence is big, Houston is 36-23 since he signed as a free agent in 2013-14. The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the Bucks are 13-28 ATS in their last 41 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (860) Houston Rockets |
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01-22-16 | Rhode Island v. George Washington -5 | Top | 58-62 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
The winner of this game keeps pace in the upper third of the Atlantic Ten while the loser falls into the middle of the pack and a big edge goes to the home team. Rhode Island was picked second in the preseason A-10 poll but in the first game of the season against American, the Rams lost E.C. Matthews, the preseason Atlantic Ten Player of the Year, to a knee injury. They have dealt with it pretty well by losing some close games but his production has been sorely missed. Rhode Island has just one road win this season and that took overtime to win against Brown. George Washington is coming off a loss at Dayton a week ago to fall to 3-2 in the conference but back on its home court tonight is significant. The Colonials are 10-0 at home, winning by an average of 15.2 ppg, and going back to 2013-14 they have the best home winning percentage in the conference with wins in 36 of 39 games at the Smith Center. There is definitely some extra incentive for the Colonials as well as they are out for some revenge following a loss in last season's Atlantic Ten Tournament which killed any chance of an NCAA Tournament bid and sent them to the NIT. The Colonials are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss while the Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (870) George Washington Colonials |
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01-21-16 | Hawks v. Kings OVER 216 | Top | 88-91 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
Both Atlanta and Sacramento are coming off wins last night and both put in solid defensive efforts which we should see a reversal tonight. The Hawks defeated Portland 104-98 and held the Blazers to 43.6 percent shooting from the floor including 29 percent from long range. Meanwhile, the Kings defeated the Lakers 112-93 as they allowed just 35.6 percent shooting including 16 percent from long range. Both defensive efforts were better than both season averages and now each team faces a much better offensive team as well as facing teams with a much higher pace. Sacramento is the fastest team in the NBA while Atlanta checks in as the 12th fastest. The teams also fall into the "90 Percent Guideline" where adding up the offensive shooting percentage and defensive shooting percentage from each team and both exceed 90 percent. The Hawks have gone under the total in three straight games while Sacramento has gone under the total in two straight games which gives us the contrarian value for this matchup. Going back, the over is 13-3 in the Hawks last 16 games against teams with a losing straight up record while the over is 8-2 in the Kings last 10 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* Over (707) Atlanta Hawks/(708) Sacramento Kings |
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01-21-16 | USC v. Oregon -4.5 | Top | 81-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
USC is one of the pleasant surprises in the Pac 12 this season as after finishing 3-15 in the conference last year, the Trojans are already 4-1 as well as 15-3 overall. They are in a place they have not been in a while as USC is ranked in the AP top 25 (No. 21) for the first time since being No. 19 on Nov. 17, 2008. also, this is the best start for the Trojans since 1991-92 so the turnaround has been incredible. Oregon is just a game behind USC and just a game worse overall but is unranked and that of course sets up one of the best college basketball situations out there as explained later. Oregon is coming off a loss at Colorado on Sunday which snapped a three-game skid. Forwards Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell were limited to 32 combined minutes due to foul trouble and the Ducks were outrebounded 39-25. They are a perfect 11-0 at home and Oregon enters the week No. 6 in the ESPN RPI, No. 9 according to CBS Sports, highest among Pac 12 teams. The Ducks strength of schedule, No. 4, is also tops in the conference. So the fact they are favored here is not a surprise and the situation mentioned earlier is playing on unranked home favorites going up against a ranked road team. Also, Oregon is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss. 10* (754) Oregon Ducks |
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01-21-16 | Florida International -3.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 72-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Conference USA is led by UAB and Marshall which are both 5-0 and of the 14 teams within the conference, there are only four teams with a winning record. However, there is a logjam with eight teams sitting at 2-3 and 10 teams are within two games of fourth place and the all important bye come C-USA Tournament time. Texas-San Antonio is one of those teams sitting at 2-3 which may be a surprise considering the Roadrunners came into the season with just one senior on the roster and were picked to finish 13th in the 14th team conference. They are coming off a win over UTEP which was just its third win over a Division I team. Florida International is one of those winning teams as it comes in 3-2 in the conference and 9-9 overall. That record could be so much better as the Golden Panthers have lost three games in overtime and another three games by six points each and a fourth by just three points. The most recent game resulted in a home loss against Southern Mississippi so now it is bounceback time. This is a very good situation where we are playing on a team coming off a loss as a favorite going up against a team coming off a win as an underdog with both of the cover differentials being over 10 points. 10* (739) Florida International Golden Panthers |
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01-20-16 | Kings v. Lakers +7 | Top | 112-93 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
The Kings have shown some big improvements this season but many inconsistencies remain including playing up and down to the competition. For a team that has road wins over the Clippers, Thunder, Pacers and Raptors, you would think they would be better than having a 7-12 road record but they simply do not show up every game. Sacramento is 2-7 ATS this season when favored by three or more points and the Kings failed in their lone game as a road favorite, losing outright in Minnesota just over a month ago. They are coming off that Clippers win last time out so getting up here will be tough. The Lakers have dropped three straight games, two on the road and a home loss against the Rockets. They are 3-4 in their last four home games which doesn't look impressive but two of those losses besides the game against Houston have come against Golden St. and Oklahoma City. Sacramento hosted the Lakers two weeks ago and was favored by 8.5 points and are now favored by just slightly less on the road which is just wrong. The Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (520) Los Angeles Lakers |
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01-20-16 | Pistons v. Rockets -3 | Top | 123-114 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The Pistons hit the road following a 1-1 homestand where they defeated the Warriors on Saturday but failed to back it up with a loss against the Bulls on Monday. They remain three games over .500 and are currently in seventh place in the Eastern Conference as third place and 12th place is separated by just 5.5 games. After a 3-0 start on the road, the Pistons have won just five of their last 17 road games including a 1-6 record against the Western Conference. Houston is coming off a loss as well as it took the Clippers to overtime but fell short by eight points in a very high-scoring game. The Rockets are only a game over .500 on the season, clearly one of the biggest disappointments in the Western Conference, but after a 5-10 start, they are 17-11 over their last 28 games. The home floor has been a similar story as the Rockets opened a dismal 2-7 but have gone 11-3 over their last 14 home games with the three losses coming against Atlanta, Golden St. and Cleveland and Detroit does not fall into that category. Going back, the Pistons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (512) Houston Rockets |
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01-20-16 | Wichita State v. Northern Iowa +6.5 | Top | 74-55 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Wichita St. is back to its winning ways after a very slow start to the season where it lost five of its first 10 games. While Tulsa, Alabama and Seton Hall are good teams, they are not teams the Shockers should have been losing to. The linesmakers made no adjustments and it showed in the ATS numbers but even now with the adjustments being made to inflate the numbers, Wichita St. is on a 6-1 ATS run. The Shockers failed to cover against the second best team in the MVC, Evansville, and while they seem to be facing an inferior opponent tonight, that really isn't the case. Northern Iowa has been underachieving this season with a 10-9 record overall including a 2-4 conference mark. The Panthers are coming off a 31-4 season and were picked to finish second this season but a lot of work needs to be done to get there. They lost against Loyola-Chicago last time out by 10 points as a 12-point favorite so a lookahead to this game was quite possible. The Panthers are very legitimate when they show up as they have secured a pair of top-five wins this season with victories over No. 1 North Carolina and No. 5 Iowa St. 10* (550) Northern Iowa Panthers |
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01-20-16 | George Mason v. Fordham -4 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
We have played against Fordham a couple times since its 10-1 start to the season which was a huge overachievement. The schedule was extremely easy as the Rams defeated no one of significance and then reality struck once conference play opened as they are off to a 1-4 start with those losses coming against teams a combined 14-6. Fordham has failed to cover its last four games but now the schedule eases up a bit, at least for one game. It doesn't seem that long ago when George Mason made that Final Four run but it was actually a decade and things have not been good for the Patriots the last couple years. They had their first losing record last season for the first time since 1997-98 and look to be on pace for another. George Mason is also 1-4 in the conference but is coming off its first Atlantic Ten win over the weekend at St. Louis, the worst conference team the last two seasons. That was the first road win of the season after six straight losses to open the season and winning again will be tough. Fordham has surprisingly owned the Patriots since they joined the conference with four straight wins and covers. 10* (538) Fordham Rams |
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01-20-16 | Nebraska v. Michigan State -14 | Top | 72-71 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Michigan St. was a near unanimous No. 1 in the AP Poll back on December 28th but a loss against Iowa has sent the Spartans into somewhat of a spiral. They did rebound with three straight wins but those came against Minnesota, Illinois and Penn St. which are a combined 3-15 in the Big Ten and then have since lost two more games, at home against Iowa and at Wisconsin by a point. Michigan St. is now in a spot where it needs a big win and brings in an opponent that it should be able to tear apart. Nebraska opened Big Ten play with an 0-3 record but has since won three straight games and those were against teams a combined 1-17 so it is somewhat similar to the Spartans three-game run but less impressive. The Huskers offense has been greatly improved but they will have a challenge here as the Spartans rank in the Top 20 nationally in scoring defense (18th, 62.7 ppg), field-goal percentage defense (5th, 36.7 percent) and three-point field-goal percentage defense (7th, 28.3 percent). Michigan St. has not lost three straight games since March, 2013 and an even great incentive here is to avenge two straight losses against Nebraska. 10* (526) Michigan St. Spartans |
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01-19-16 | LSU +8.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 57-71 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Texas A&M has taken early control of the SEC as it is off to a 5-0 start which has improved its overall record to 15-2. The Aggies came into the season unranked but has gradually moved into the polls and currently sits at No. 10 in the country. The home floor has been especially dominant where they are 10-0 and have won those games by an average of nearly 22 ppg. Tonight is a tough test though against an LSU team that has been pretty much the opposite as the Tigers came in ranked No. 21 in the preseason but dropped put of the rankings rather quickly after a 3-3 start. This is a very young team as two of the top five scorers are freshmen led by Ben Simmons with 20 ppg while averaging 12.9 rpg. Being so young, the rough start was not a surprise but now LSU is rounding into form with wins in seven of nine games including a 4-1 start in the SEC. Of the Tigers six losses, three have come by six points or less while another two came in overtime so they have the ability to stay within this big number. Going back, the Tigers are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Aggies are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. 10* (755) LSU Tigers |
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01-19-16 | Wolves v. Pelicans -4.5 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
New Orleans lost yesterday at Memphis by a bucket as their frustrating season continues. The Pelicans are arguably the biggest disappointment in the NBA this season as they were eight games over .500 and a playoff team but are currently 14 games under .500. Their 27 losses are just 10 shy of the total defeats for all of last season The problem this season for New Orleans on the road has been playing the poor teams as the Pelicans have gone 4-10 ATS against teams with a losing record. This is the start of an important stretch as this game begins a seven-game homestand and the potential is there for a big run as the best team of the bunch is Memphis which is five games over .500 and all of which have losing road records. Minnesota has one of those bad road records as it is 7-12 away from home including losses in six straight games., The Timberwolves are coming off a victory on Sunday at home against Phoenix which snapped a nine-game losing skid overall. Minnesota has won consecutive games only once since November 29th and falls into a negative situation where we play on underdogs after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 on the season. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (704) New Orleans Pelicans |
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01-19-16 | Clemson v. Virginia -10 | Top | 62-69 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
At first glace, this line looks to be way too high based on where these team sits in the ACC but it is this high for a reason. The public consensus is backing Clemson at a 2:1 pace here based on what it has done thus far. The Tigers are off to a 5-1 start in the conference and they have covered all six games on top of that. Included in this opening stretch are wins in the last three games against ranked teams and while that is impressive, all of those came on their home floor albeit a half-hour away from campus. Now the Tigers hit the road where they are 1-3 on the season with the lone victory coming against Syracuse by just a point when the Orange were stuck playing their worst hoops of the season. Virginia is coming off another loss as it has now lost three of its last four games, all against teams the Cavaliers should be taking care of. Those have all come on the road however where they are 1-4 on the season compared to being 8-0 at home and 12-0 in non-true road games. Virginia is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 home games coming off an upset loss as a favorite while Clemson is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games after consecutive conference wins. 10* (742) Virginia Cavaliers |
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01-19-16 | Bucks v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 91-79 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Milwaukee won in Charlotte on Saturday which came after an overtime win at home against Atlanta. That was the conclusion of a four-game in five-day run so the Bucks come in a little more rested here but the situation is not a good one. Since winning four straight games in early November, the Bucks have won consecutive games only four times only four times since then and they have failed to turn that run into three straight. Milwaukee is 0-4 going back to that four-game run in its last four games following consecutive wins, losing those games by 16, 14, 21 and 25 points. Miami is coming off a six-game roadtrip and not a good one as it went 2-4 and ended with a 25-point loss at Oklahoma City. Following this game, the Heat embark on a five-game roadtrip and while it isn't as daunting as far as the competition compared to the last one, this is a must win home game. Miami dropped its last home game which came against the Knicks back on January 2nd but is still a solid 15-8 at home this season. Additionally, the Heat will be out to avenge a four-game season series sweep at the hands of the Bucks from last season. The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double digit win while the Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a double digit loss. 10* (702) Miami Heat |
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01-19-16 | Butler v. Providence | Top | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
While Villanova and Xavier are at the top of the Big East Conference and ranked in the top five, only 3.5 games separate 1st and 7th place. Butler and Providence are within that group and both have been up and down of late. The Bulldogs are 2-3 in the conference as all three losses have come against ranked teams including the two aforementioned leaders as well as tonight's opponent. That puts Butler in a revenge situation tonight but road revenge is never a good angle and it faces the Friars at a bad time. Providence has lost two of its last three games which has snapped an eight-game winning streak and surprisingly, both of these losses have come in its home floor. The Friars were upset by Marquette by a point and after a road win at Creighton, they were upset this past Saturday by Seton Hall by nine-points as a six-point chalk. Going back, the Friars are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (710) Providence Friars |
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01-18-16 | Celtics v. Mavs +2 | Top | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Recent results seem to be affecting this line as there seems to be no other reason that the Mavericks are home underdogs in this spot Monday night. Boston is coming off its third straight win at Washington on Saturday which came after a very rough stretch where the Celtics lost six of seven games including three straight on the road. They are over .500 on the road and while they have been favored by this same amount in their last two road games, those were against Washington and New York which are both under .500 overall and have worse home records than Dallas. The Mavericks are coming off a blowout loss last night against San Antonio by 29 points as the Spurs improved to 24-0 at home. Dallas returns home where it has won five of its last seven games with one of those losses coming against the Cavaliers in overtime. They have been a solid bounceback team this season as they have won 12 of 18 games this season following a loss and even better, the Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Dallas has dominated this series with seven straight wins and it continues tonight. 10* (518) Dallas Mavericks |
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01-18-16 | Syracuse v. Duke -11 | Top | 64-62 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Duke is coming off its first home loss of the season which is certainly a rarity as going back, the Blue Devils are 105-5 at Cameron Indoor Stadium since the 2009-10 season, the third best home winning percentage in the NCAA over that stretch. Three of those took place in 2011-12 so they have been nearly unbeatable here since then so the Saturday loss was a shocker. Backing that up, it was just the 17th loss against an unranked opponent since 1996-97. Syracuse has bounced back from a 0-4 start in the ACC with back-to-back wins over Boston College and Wake Forest and both were dominating performances. The win over the Demon Deacons was the first road win of the season for the Orange and going back ,they have struggled against top teams, going 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Additionally, they are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up win while the Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game. They had allowed 80 or more points only twice this season prior to the Notre Dame loss and they came back with wins by 19 and 17 points. 10* (524) Duke Blue Devils |
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01-18-16 | Bulls +3 v. Pistons | Top | 111-101 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Following a six-game winning streak after Christmas, Chicago has dropped four of its last five games including a home loss against Dallas on Friday. The Bulls scored a mere 31 points in the second half and put up a season low 77 points on 36.1 percent shooting. It was quite the opposite night for Jimmy Butler who was coming off a 53-point game the night before but managed only four points against the Mavericks. The big news for Chicago over the weekend was the loss of Joakim Noah for the remainder of the season as he suffered another separated shoulder but he was having his worst season since 2008-09 so while his 8.8 rpg will be missed, it is not likely they cannot be replaced. Detroit handed Golden St. its fourth loss of the season on Saturday as the Pistons won by 18 points as seven-point underdogs. This is a definite letdown spot for Detroit while Chicago not only wants to get out of its funk but also looks to avenge two overtime losses against the Pistons. Here, we play against home teams coming off a win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home loss. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (509) Chicago Bulls |
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01-18-16 | Jazz v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 119-124 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Unfortunately, we lost with Charlotte on Saturday as the Hornets lost their first home game of the season against a team with a losing record. They had seven losses at home prior to Saturday with the five losses coming against Golden St, Cleveland, Atlanta and Boston twice and at the time, all home losses have come against teams above .500. they jumped out to a 12-point lead against the Bucks but went ice cold, scoring just 63 points over the last three quarters and this from an offense that has averaged 107.1 ppg in its 14 victories at home. Utah won in its game on Saturday as it defeated the hapless Lakers by 27 points at homer but like most NBA teams, the road is a different story. The Jazz are 3-12 over their last 15 road games following a 3-1 start and they have struggled of late against the better home teams as they have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home and we should see a huge bounceback effort from the Hornets on Monday afternoon. 10* (504) Charlotte Hornets |
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01-17-16 | Oregon v. Colorado +1.5 | Top | 87-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
We got a win with Colorado on Wednesday as it easily took care of Oregon St. and I feel the wrong team is favored here tonight. Colorado got off to an 11-1 start which included 11 consecutive wins following a loss against Iowa St. to open the season. The Buffaloes had a rough stretch of three losses in four games but one of those came against undefeated SMU by just four points, another came at California which is 11-0 at home and the most recent came against Utah at home by a bucket. That was the first home loss of the season and the problem was that the Buffaloes took just four free throws the entire game. Now they welcome Oregon which is coming off an upset loss at Utah on Thursday as it managed the high altitude well but another game in the thin air could prove to be a challenge. The Ducks were fortunate to avoid this two-game trip last year but two years ago after defeating Utah, the lost here next time out. Colorado has some revenge in mind after dropping both meetings last season and this season, they have covered four of five games as an underdog while Oregon lost straight up in its only game as a road favorite. 10* (880) Colorado Buffaloes |
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01-17-16 | Steelers v. Broncos -7.5 | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This line was on and off the board all week due to the Steelers injury situation and has been confirmed that both Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams are out. The number reached nine in a couple places but settled back down to -7.5 and while we are on the wrong side of the key number of seven, it should not come into play here. Don't be surprised to see this one go up more by gametime so betting it early in the day is likely the right move. The absence of Williams last week against Cincinnati did not matter as the Steelers rushed for 167 yards on 29 carries (5.8 ypc) but things will be tougher here. The Broncos bring in the top ranked rushing defense, allowing just 3.3 ypc compared to the Bengals which allowed a full yard more per carry. One stat that came into play yesterday was the Patriots have averaged 6.9 yppl when Julian Edelman plays which is first in the NFL and when he doesn't play, they average 4.7 yppl which is dead last in the league. We saw what a difference it made yesterday. For the Steelers, when Brown is off the field which was only 88 plays over the past couple of seasons, the Steelers average just 1.6 yppl. On the other side, we don't anticipate Peyton Manning to carry the offense but he is clearly as healthy as he has been all season and an improved running game will definitely help. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two consecutive road wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (308) Denver Broncos |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks +3 v. Panthers | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -116 | 148 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEAHAWKS for our NFL Playoff Game of the Year. Seattle has no business being here as it was able to advance thanks to a missed 27-yard field goal from the Vikings. But in reality, the Seahawks played a great game in elements they are not accustomed to and I foresee them taking advantage of this opportunity. Offensively, it was a challenge and the weather did play a role in that which I did not think it would so it came down to the defenses and both played exceptional. Seattle allowed just three field goals, although it should have been four, and this defense continues to dominate as over their last six road games, they have allowed an average of 7.2 ppg and even more impressive, they have allowed an offensive touchdown only once in those six games. The Carolina offense goes as Cam Newton goes so shutting him down, or at least slowing him down, is the key for the Seahawks defense. That may be stating the obvious but we saw it in the first meeting this season in Seattle as they shut the Panthers down the majority of the game until the ferocious comeback by Carolina which pulled off the upset as a touchdown underdog. While this is a No. 1 vs. No. 6 matchup, it is far from that at this point in the season. Seattle falls into a great spot as we play on road underdogs or pickems that are averaging 24 or more ppg, after a win by three or less points. This situation is 68-35 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Carolina is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games in the second half of the season against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers per game while the Seahawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (305) Seattle Seahawks |
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01-16-16 | Air Force +14 v. UNLV | Top | 64-100 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
We won with UNLV on Tuesday as it easily took care of New Mexico following a 0-3 start in the MWC so the Rebels knew it was a must win and they took care of that. Remaining at home, they have what seems to be a breather play here but this line is simply way too high. This team is ultra talented and the win over the Lobos could jumpstart UNLV but they have had issues dominating the teams it should, going just 4-7 ATS as a favorite. Air Force was not expected to do much in the conference this season following a below average season a year ago and the Falcons haven't disappointed. They are 1-3 in the conference and have yet to cover a game so that is also playing into this number. Air Force ranks fourth in the MWC in field goal percentage defense with a 41.5 mark and fourth in three-point field goal percentage defense with a 32.1 mark so a low scoring game is in our favor with the underdog. The Falcons have struggled to win here over the years but they have covered seven of the last 10 meetings here and are once again catching a sizable number. 10* (669) Air Force Falcons |
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01-16-16 | Packers +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 49 m | Show |
This number is stuck on seven as of Wednesday afternoon and likely is not going to move until gameday when public money comes pouring in on the Cardinals. A big reason for that is they have been a great home team this year, or are they? Arizona blew away San Francisco and Green Bay but the other four wins were all within just one possession late in the game. The win over Green Bay is affecting the betting market as well as the Packers were destroyed by 30 points as they were never in it. We will see a better Green Bay performance here as the Packers finally woke up last week with a big win in Washington. The line is also on our side as high as it is as underdogs of at least seven points have gone 29-19 ATS (60.4 percent) during the postseason including a 17-9 ATS record (65.4 percent) during the Divisional Round. That record improves to 11-2 ATS (84.6 percent) when the favorite is getting more than 50 percent of the action. Additionally, road teams are 14-3 ATS (82.4 percent) since 2005 in the Divisional Round when coming off a road win. Two of those three covers losses were by just 4.5 points combined (Baltimore by 3.5 points in 2010 against Pittsburgh and Washington by 1 point in 2005 against Seattle. Granted, all four game fall into this situation but this is one of only two games where major recent injuries are not coming into play. The Packers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after that first meeting in Week 16 and adjustments will be made to fix some of the problems that occurred. Going back, the Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff road games while the Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. 10* (303) Green Bay Packers |
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01-16-16 | Bucks v. Hornets -6 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
It has been an up and down season for Charlotte and it has been mostly down of late. The Hornets have dropped eight of their last nine games including a two-point setback last night in New Orleans. Six of those eight losses have come on the road however where they are 4-14 on the season and the two home losses came against the Clippers and Thunder. Conversely, Charlotte is 14-7 at home with the other five losses coming against Golden St, Cleveland, Atlanta and Boston twice so all home losses have come against teams above .500. When the Hornets win, they win big as the 14 home wins have been by an average of 12.9 ppg and nearly half of those have come against winning teams. Milwaukee is coming off an overtime win last night over Atlanta to move to 12-7 at home but the Bucks are a dismal 5-18 on the road. This is their fourth game in five nights which is never a good thing and on the season, Milwaukee is 1-5 in the second of back-to-back games when the second game is on the road. A negative situation goes against the Bucks as we play against underdogs that are revenging a road loss, playing their 4th game in 5 days. This situation is 59-28 ATS (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (504) Charlotte Hornets |
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01-16-16 | BYU v. Portland +8.5 | Top | 81-84 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
BYU is coming off a big upset win on Thursday night at Gonzaga for its fourth straight win following a season opening WCC loss against St. Mary's. That last second win over the Bulldogs presents a big letdown spot here for the Cougars which are playing their second road game as part of a four-game roadtrip going into next week. It is no huge surprise they won that game as BYU was picked to finish second in the WCC and now, the line has been overadjusted in this one. It has been the opposite start for Portland as it opened conference play with a win over Pepperdine but has since dropped its last four games. The Pilots lost three of those games on the road and obviously overlooked San Diego on Thursday as they lost by 11 points at home as nine-point favorites. This is no pushover team as they played a tough non-conference schedule and came away with solid wins against Utah St., New Mexico and Northern Iowa. Portland was picked 5th in the WCC so the poor conference start is concerning but the Pilots are getting BYU on their home floor at the perfect time. 10* (614) Portland Pilots |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots -5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 9 m | Show |
Kansas City is coming off its 11th straight win as it went to Houston last Saturday, returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and never looked back in a 30-0 victory. The score shows a domination but the Chiefs only outgained the Texans by 88 total yards as they were fortunate that Brian Hoyer played one of his worst games ever and took advantage of five Houston turnovers. The Chiefs take a big step up in class here as they head to New England to take on the Patriots and we are getting a good value line here. New England got a much needed week off to rest and heal up as well as getting a break following two losses to end the regular season. Both of those losses came on the road and the Patriots come in with a 7-1 home record. The lone loss came against the Eagles where they won the yardage battle by 179 yards but Philadelphia scored two touchdowns on special teams and another on a 99-yard interception return. The Patriots are getting Julian Edelman back which is a huge boost for the offense. To put it into perspective, the Patriots have averaged 6.9 yppl when Edelman plays which is first in the NFL and when he doesn't play, they average 4.7 yppl which is dead last in the league. Here, we play against road teams after a win by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 37-16 ATS (69.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, New England is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams averaging 5.65 or fewer yppl and 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games after being outgained by 150 or more ypg in its previous game. 10* (302) New England Patriots |
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01-16-16 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma -5 | Top | 68-70 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on OKLAHOMA for our Saturday Star Attraction. West Virginia has a rare opportunity to defeat both the No. 1 and No. 2 team in the country but I do not see it happening. The Mountaineers took out top ranked Kansas on Tuesday which came at home as the defense held the Jayhawks to 41.7 percent from the floor and forced 22 turnovers. Now they hit the road and while they are 3-0 on the highway, they have not really defeated anyone of note and actually struggled against both Kansas St. and TCU. While we are playing against West Virginia coming off the big win over Kansas, we are equally playing on Oklahoma as it has not looked good of late. The Sooners have covered only once in their last six games and that happened to be the one game they lost in Kansas in triple overtime. They defeated Kansas St. after the Kansas game and then snuck past Oklahoma St. on the road Wednesday which was in a very tough environment. They have back-to-back road games on deck at Iowa St. and Baylor so they need to come out of here with not just a win but a big win to get confidence back. The home team has won and covered the last five meetings in this series. 10* (590) Oklahoma Sooners |
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01-16-16 | Iowa State -1 v. Kansas State | Top | 76-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on IOWA ST. for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. The natives are getting restless in Ames as the Cyclones came into the season ranked seventh in the country but are now ranked No. 18 and will likely drop further down following a loss on Tuesday at Texas in overtime. Iowa St. is now 12-4 including a 1-3 record in the Big 12 but all losses have been quality ones and have come by a combined 12 points so that conference record could definitely be better. The Cyclones have a revenge rematch Monday against Oklahoma but can ill afford to look ahead and go into that game three games back. Kansas St. is also off to a 1-3 conference start and it too has quality losses and it was unable to take its frustrations out on Texas Tech on Tuesday. The Wildcats are where they were expected to be as they were picked to finish 8th in the Big 12 (out of only 10 teams of course) and they are catching the Cyclones at the wrong time. Iowa St. has struggled here in the past but even with the tough start, this is the best version to come here and going back, the Cyclones are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (587) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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01-16-16 | Baylor v. Texas Tech +1 | Top | 63-60 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on TEXAS TECH for our Saturday Enforcer. Texas Tech got off to a very good start this season as it opened 11-1 with the only loss coming against Utah on a neutral floor but it has not been doing well since. The Red Raiders have lost three straight games, two coming on the road and the one home game against Kansas. Now they are back home to face another strong opponent but this is a great bounce back spot. Baylor has won three games in a row including an upset at Iowa St. so this is the ultimate contrarian setup. The Bears may not be all that interested here as they have home games against Kansas St. and Oklahoma coming up this week and they have won seven of the last eight meetings in this series. Baylor is just 1-3 on the road so the win over the Cyclones was a surprise. This is definitely good news for the Texas Tech as the Red Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. Meanwhile, the Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. 10* (570) Texas Tech Red Raiders |
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01-16-16 | Oakland v. Detroit +1.5 | Top | 86-82 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
Detroit came into the season picked to finish fourth in the Horizon League and after a 3-0 start in conference games, things were looking good then reality hit last time out as the Titans were throttled at home against Valparaiso, the top team in the conference. Still, this is an excellent team in a good spot for a bounceback and they need to take advantage of the early part of the schedule. This is Detroit's fifth straight home game to open conference play and after this, nine of their last 13 games are on the road so they have to take advantage here. Oakland has also lost to Valparaiso and bounced back with a win over Illinois-Chicago by 25 points. That was the Golden Grizzlies fourth straight home game and they hit the road for the first time since December 30th. Detroit is 9-1 at home and it is catching an excellent line here, one that does not make sense based on the class of the teams. Despite not being nearly as good as last season, Detroit won the home meeting with Oakland by 20 points. The Titans have covered eight of their last 11 home games. 10* (572) Detroit Titans |
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01-16-16 | Miami (Fla) -4 v. Clemson | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on MIAMI for our Saturday Afternoon Dominator. This is a great spot for Miami which is coming off a loss at Virginia on Tuesday. We won that game and while it was a play against the Hurricanes because of their eight-game winning streak but it was more of a play on Virginia which was coming off consecutive losses for the first time in over two years. Now Miami heads on the road again to bounceback as it heads to Greenville, SC which is not the usual home for Clemson as Littlejohn Coliseum is being renovated this season. The Tigers have fared pretty well in their home away from home as they are 9-2 and are coming off two huge upsets over Louisville and Duke as 6.5-point and 7.5-point home underdogs respectively. It will be a tough task for the Tigers to defeat three ranked teams in a week and I do not see it happening. Going back, the Hurricanes are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning straight up record while going 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (547) Miami Hurricanes |
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01-15-16 | Heat -2 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
Denver became just the third team to defeat Golden St. this season as it held off a Warriors rally to win 112-110. It was the second straight win for Denver and while it has won three straight games on two different occasions this season, the only winning team it defeated over those winning streaks was Houston. The win over the Warriors was just the Nuggets second cover at home against a team with a winning record. Miami meanwhile has not had a good roadtrip as after a win over Phoenix to open it, the Heat have dropped the last three games but the last two have come against the Clippers and Warriors, two of the four best teams in the Western Conference. Obviously it can be argued that Denver just beat Golden St. but that is in our favor here as it helps line value as well as putting the Nuggets in a tough letdown spot. Miami has Oklahoma City on deck but it isn't until Saturday and this is a must win prior to that upcoming game. Miami is 11-5-1 ATS following a loss this season and going back, the Heat are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a losing home record. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are 15-37-3 ATS in their last 55 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (865) Miami Heat |
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01-15-16 | Evansville v. Illinois State +4 | Top | 66-55 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
Four teams are separated by just one game for first place in the Missouri Valley Conference but Illinois St. is not one of those. The Redbirds are two games back but a win here gets them right back in the mix while a loss could do some early damage. They are riding a two-game skid with losses at Indiana St. and Southern Illinois but a return back home helps and getting points is even better. Illinois St. is 7-2 at home, the last defeat coming back on December 5th against a very good UAB team and since then, it has gone 6-3 overall including a 4-0 mark at home. Evansville is one of those teams sitting one game behind 5-0 Wichita St. and at 15-3 overall, that is a big reason it comes in as the road chalk. The Purple Aces lone loss came at Wichita St. while three of their other four conference games have been at home where they are 10-0. Evansville has covered four straight games which is also playing into this number. The Redbirds fall into a solid situation where we play on underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging between 63 and 67 ppg going up against teams allowing between 63 and 67 ppg, after allowing 75 points or more two straight games. This situation is 145-82 ATS (63.9 percent) since 1997. Additionally, Illinois St. is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams outscoring their opponents by 8.0 or more ppg. 10* (872) Illinois St. Redbirds |
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01-14-16 | Washington v. Arizona -12.5 | Top | 67-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on ARIZONA for our Thursday Star Attraction. At first glace, this line may seem out of whack based on recent history and what Arizona is dealing with but this has the makings of an absolute blowout. The Wildcats are coming off back-to-back losses by a combined five points at UCLA and at USC and now they will try to avoid their first three-game losing streak since Feb. 13-25, 2010. They will be without freshman Allonzo Trier who is the team's leading scorer as he sustained a broken hand against the Trojans but this team is loaded and playing at home certainly helps. Arizona has won 47 straight home games by an average of 22.2 ppg during the longest active home winning streak in the nation. Washington is a perfect 3-0 in the Pac-12 which is good enough for the lead but it is a skewed record in my opinion. Two of the wins have come in overtime and overall, the three victories have come by a combined nine points and tonight marks just its second true road game of the season. Based on power rankings despite the conference records, Arizona is the top team while the Huskies are ranked 11th in the 12 conference. The Wildcats have a great situation on their side as we play on home teams as a favorite or pickem coming off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite. This situation is 89-42 ATS (67.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (760) Arizona Wildcats |
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01-14-16 | Cavs +6 v. Spurs | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
The Cavaliers head to San Antonio to continue their roadtrip as they hit the fifth leg of a six-game trek. They have won the first four games of this trip and going back, have won eight straight games, six of those coming on the highway. Cleveland is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season but the one loss came in Miami when Kyrie Irving was still out of the lineup and LeBron James did not play. The Cavaliers are one of the many teams in the league that plays up or down to the opposition as they are 3-13 ATS against losing teams while going 11-5 ATS against teams with a winning record including 5-2 ATS on the road. San Antonio is perfect at home this season with a 22-0 record and going back to last season, the Spurs have won 31 consecutive regular season home games which everyone is making a big deal of. People seem to forget that San Antonio lost here twice to the Clippers in the Conference Quarterfinals so the 31-game winning streak comes with a big asterisk. The last team that beat San Antonio here during the regular season was Cleveland last March in overtime so while there is the revenge factor, the Clippers were the team they were after more. This game will have a playoff feel making points a premium. 10* (707) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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01-14-16 | Wisc-Milwaukee +12 v. Valparaiso | Top | 56-68 | Push | 0 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE for our Thursday Enforcer. First place is on the line in the Horizon League tonight in the early part of the season as the two top preseason picks square off. Valparaiso is considered one of the top mid-majors in the country and its 13-3 record so far reflects that. The Crusaders are off to a 3-0 start in the conference with all three wins coming by at least 17 points. They are once again favored by a large number but in this case, it will prove to be too much. Because of the name of the opponent, Milwaukee is catching a big number and this is the third time it is getting double-digits. The Panthers stayed within the number at Notre Dame as it lost by eight and won outright at Wisconsin by a point catching 12.5 points. There was another solid win at Minnesota so they have no issues playing up to teams. Of their other four losses, one was by three points against Murray St. while the other three all came in overtime by a combined seven points. Milwaukee is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 road games coming off three straight conference wins. While winning in Valparaiso is no easy task, the Panthers have the talent to come in and pull off the upset but we will still gladly grab the abundance of points here. 10* (745) Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers |
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01-14-16 | Southern Miss v. Florida Atlantic -4.5 | Top | 51-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on FLORIDA ATLANTIC for our Thursday Supreme Annihilator. Florida Atlantic is on a nine-game losing skid and is 2-14 on the season yet comes in as a favorite tonight? Well there is a very good reason for it as the Owls have played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. Of their 16 games, 13 have come away from home and the have played only one home game over the last month. While there have been some blowout losses, Florida Atlantic lost by a bucket to a very good Northeastern team and lost by just five points against Florida St. This is the first home conference game after opening with three road C-USA games and it comes against the team picked to finish last in the conference. Southern Mississippi went 9-20 last season as a self-imposed postseason ban led to many more on and off court issues and the Golden Eagles are still in the middle of an NCAA investigation. They lost four starters and are in a big rebuilding project now. They have looked good at times and actually opened the season with a 6-0 ATS record but those lines were inflated because of the problems going on. Southern Mississippi is coming off an upset win over Old Dominion which spells letdown tonight. 10* (718) Florida Atlantic Owls |
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01-13-16 | Oregon State v. Colorado -4 | Top | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on COLORADO for our Wednesday Star Attraction. Colorado got off to an 11-1 start which included 11 consecutive wins following a loss against Iowa St. to open the season but has since dropped three of its last four games. One of those came against undefeated SMU by just four points, another came at California which is 11-0 at home and the most recent came against Utah at home by a bucket on Friday. That was the first home loss of the season and the problem was that the Buffaloes took just four free throws the entire game. With a 1-2 conference record, and one of those defeats a home loss, the Buffaloes can ill-afford to drop another home game, especially this early in the conference season. Oregon St. is off to a 2-1 PAC 12 start while going 11-3 overall and has actually yet to lost a road game, going a perfect 2-0. However, those came against Rice and Santa Barbara so this is by far its biggest challenge. Additionally, this is the Beavers first true road game since November 21st and this is a tough environment and they have struggled in the high altitude, going 0-3 and losing by an average of 18 ppg. 10* (578) Colorado Buffaloes |
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01-13-16 | South Carolina v. Alabama +4.5 | Top | 50-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on ALABAMA for our Wednesday Enforcer. South Carolina remains one of two undefeated teams in the nation as the Gamecocks are 15-0 but are still ranked only No. 19 in the country in the latest AP Poll. They are coming off a come-from-behind win over Vanderbilt on Saturday and are now again laying points on the road, just two points less than what Kentucky laid here on Saturday. Alabama lost that game against the Wildcats which was its first home loss of the season. Since the start of the 2010-11 campaign, the Crimson Tide have won 80 of the last 97 games played at Coleman Coliseum. The Crimson Tide have won five games that were decided by less than 10 points, with three of those games coming down to the game's final possession. They have a record of 5-2 in games decided by 10 or fewer points and 3-0 in one possession games this season. South Carolina is the second biggest road consensus of the night behind Duke which is no surprise considering the Gamecocks have covered six straight games. Alabama is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a conference home loss. 10* (560) Alabama Crimson Tide |
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01-13-16 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame -6.5 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on NOTRE DAME for our Wednesday Supreme Annihilator. We played on Notre Dame Saturday against Pittsburgh but fell behind early and was unable to recover from the Panthers hot shooting. The Irish played a great game as they shot 54.2 percent from the floor including 45 percent from long range while committing just three turnovers but were outscored 20-9 from the free throw line. That was their first home loss of the season so we should see a big bounceback effort tonight. Notre Dame is 3-1 ATS in its four games following a loss this season as opposed to going 2-7 ATS following a win. Georgia Tech is off to a very similar start as it has one more overall win than Notre Dame while also starting 1-2 in the ACC. They dropped both road conference games before upsetting Virginia at home on Saturday so the opposite effect should take place for the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech was picked No. 14 in the 15-team ACC so there is not much expected from this team and while it is coming off a very impressive win, that was at home and going back, the Yellow Jackets have lost 12 of their last 15 road games. 10* (568) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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01-13-16 | Pacers v. Celtics -2 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The Celtics lost in New York last night which extended their losing skid to four games. Boston is now sitting right at .500 for the first time since being 7-7 back on November 24th. The last three defeats have come on the road but going back, Boston has also lost its last three home games so there are a lot of streaks to snap tonight. If there is any positive during their 1-6 stretch, four of those losses have come by six points or less so while not downplaying the losses, Boston has not been getting dominated which makes it easier to bust out of these skids. Indiana rolled over Phoenix last night by 19 points which was its third win in its last four games to move six games over .500 to sit six games behind the Cavaliers in the Central Division. The Pacers are two games under .500 on the road and going back to the beginning of December, they have defeated one team on the highway that is currently .500 or better. Boston is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games when playing with no rest while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games revenging a loss as a home favorite. 10* (508) Boston Celtics |
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01-13-16 | Mavs v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 89-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Both Dallas and Oklahoma City played last night with differing results and while we tend to go opposite those results in the next game, we are actually riding what took place last night. The Mavericks took Cleveland to overtime but allowed 15 points in the extra session to lose by three points and that is a tough defeat to recover from. The Mavericks did cover their second straight game but they have been inconsistent on the road where they have lost eight of their last 14 games on the highway and have not won consecutive road games since December 6th and 7th, losing their last three road games following a win in their previous road game. Oklahoma City was in a surprisingly hard fought game last night with Minnesota as it blew an 18-point lead to hold on for the five-point victory. The Thunder head back home where they are 17-5 on the season and while this seems like a big number, this is a game that get out of control early and Oklahoma City learned its lesson last night. The Mavericks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (510) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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01-13-16 | Knicks v. Nets +4 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
The Nets have lost five straight games including a blowout defeat by 27 points against San Antonio on Monday. That was a horrible call on our part in interim coach Tony Brown's first game but Brooklyn has a more manageable game tonight against a team coming off a big win last night. The five losses have also included five non-covers which is only half of the contrarian situation here. The Knicks defeated the Celtics last night for their fifth win in six games and more important for backers, their sixth straight cover. They have only been favored once during this stretch and that was at home but now they come in as road favorites for just the third time this season. The last time was at Philadelphia last month and they are now favored by just one point less. Last month, New York was favored by 3.5 points at home against Brooklyn and based on the venue change, there is a line inflation of over eight points which is way too big in this case. Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following back-to-back double digit losses. 10* (506) Brooklyn Nets |
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01-12-16 | New Mexico v. UNLV -5 | Top | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on UNLV for our Tuesday Supreme Annihilator. We lost with UNLV on Saturday as the Runnin' Rebels went into Wyoming as favorites and went on to lose their third straight game to open their Mountain West Conference schedule. The three-game skid is a big surprise as good things are expected from this team and showing how close things have been, those three losses have come by a total of just six points. Some shocking news came out Sunday as head coach Dave Rice was let go as AD Tina Kunzer-Murphy said the program has to go in a different direction. Todd Simon, in his third season on the staff and his first as associate head coach, will be the interim coach so expect a huge team effort here. New Mexico has gotten off to just the opposite start as it is 3-0 with three blowout wins but the Lobos are heading to Las Vegas at the wrong time as we not only have a contrarian spot but the Rebels are a desperate team under a different leader and that will light the spark. The Rebels are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a losing road record while the Lobos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. 10* (768) UNLV Runnin' Rebels |
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01-12-16 | Maryland v. Michigan | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on MICHIGAN for our Tuesday Enforcer. Maryland remained undefeated in the Big Ten with a last second victory at Wisconsin to move to 4-0 but now comes the biggest road challenge in the conference. The Terrapins only loss came against North Carolina in Chapel Hill but they have won two straight road games since then. This is the start of a brutal stretch with games against Michigan, Ohio St. twice, Michigan St. and Iowa in their next six games. The Wolverines are coming off their first conference loss of the season as they were blown out against Purdue by 17 points but they were in a bad spot as the Boilermakers were just off a home loss to Iowa. Michigan is 8-1 at home with the lone loss coming back in November against Xavier. It has been an interesting season as all four losses for the Wolverines have been by double-digits so if they lose, they lose bad but the fact they have won 11 of their 12 games by double-digits shows they can pull away as well. Winning by doubles here will be a challenge but they have a big edge coming off a blowout loss against a team coming off an emotion last second victory. 10* (758) Michigan Wolverines |
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01-12-16 | Celtics +2 v. Knicks | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This line opened as a pickem when it first came out Monday afternoon but shot up to the Knicks being favored by a bucket due to the recent Celtics struggles. Boston has dropped three straight games including the last two coming on the road but the Celtics are still a game over .500 on the road, one of only 10 teams in the NBA with a winning road record. The Knicks meanwhile have won four of their last five games while also winning three straight at home by double-digits but the matchup and situation is not in their favor here. New York has lost four straight meetings against Boston including the lone meeting this season in Boston where it was an 8.5-point underdog just over two weeks ago which shows the overinflation of this line. Boston falls into a situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 99 or more ppg on the season going up against an opponent after a loss by six points or less. This situation is 215-143 ATS (60.1 percent) since 1996. Meanwhile, Boston is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 road games after allowing 100 points or more two straight games while the Knicks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (703) Boston Celtics |
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01-12-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia -5 | Top | 58-66 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on VIRGINIA for our Tuesday Star Attraction. The ACC standings look pretty much what people thought coming into the season with a couple exceptions. Clemson is a surprise at 3-1 and Virginia is not at the top as its 1-2 record puts the Cavaliers in a tie for eighth place. Virginia is coming off a pair of losses on the road and this is the first time the Cavaliers have lost consecutive games since December, 2013. They have gone 9-3 straight up and 8-4 against the number in their previous 12 losses after that and heading home is big as the Cavaliers are 27-1 here in their last 28 conference games, the lone loss coming to Duke by six points. Miami is riding an eight-game winning streak including wins over Syracuse and Florida St. to open ACC play. The Hurricanes have played just two road games and while they are 2-0, wins over LaSalle and Nebraska are far from quality. Because of the win streak, we are getting a good line with the home team as Virginia was favored by more on the road in this matchup last season. Virginia will be out for blood Tuesday night and should roll to get back on track. 10* (744) Virginia Cavaliers |
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01-11-16 | Alabama v. Clemson +7 | Top | 45-40 | Win | 100 | 148 h 25 m | Show |
We made a bad call on Michigan St. against Alabama and in hindsight it was the type of matchup that the Crimson Tide thrive on defensively but Clemson brings in a whole different system. The Tigers took it to Oklahoma and while that defense is far from that of Alabama, they can have some success against the Crimson Tide. I am not expecting them to move it up and down the field the whole game, but they will get their shots. Deshaun Watson is the type of quarterback who gives the Tide problems. He has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in five of his last six games and is averaging 107.7 ypg on 5.92 ypc. Of the past six quarterbacks who beat Alabama, Chad Kelly of Mississippi, Cardale Jones of Ohio St., Bo Wallace of Mississippi, Trevor Knight of Oklahoma, Nick Marshall of Auburn and Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M, only Wallace averaged fewer than 4 ypc in that season while Knight, Marshall and Manziel each averaged more than 6 ypc. Watson poses not only a run threat but also a deep passing threat, where Alabama has been vulnerable at times. The Alabama offense put up 440 yards against Michigan St. but now faces a quicker and more athletic defense in Clemson and quarterback Jake Coker will not have nearly the same success here as he did against the Sooners. Clemson is 27-11 ATS in its last 38 games away from home after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game while going 6-0 in its last six neutral site games. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. 10* (152) Clemson Tigers |
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01-11-16 | Alabama v. Clemson UNDER 51 | Top | 45-40 | Loss | -102 | 148 h 24 m | Show |
The two semifinal playoff games went under the total which was due to the defenses not allowing hardly anything. While the offenses put up 37 and 38 points, those were against defenses that do not compare to what they will be facing here. Alabama comes in ranked 1st in scoring defense and 2nd in total defense while Clemson comes in ranked 16th in scoring defense and 6th in total defense and it needs to be noted that Oklahoma and Michigan St. did not rank inside the top 25 in either of those categories. I do expect Clemson to have more success on offense than Michigan St. did but the Tigers are not going to have a field day all night for sure. On the other side, Alabama will be facing a much quicker and more athletic defense and they will have their own troubles. Both teams fall into a great low scoring situation where we play the under for neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yppl in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This situation is 32-8 (80 percent) to the under since 1992. Clemson is 12-3 to the under in its last 15 games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game while going 10-3 to the under in its last 13 games against winning teams. Meanwhile, Alabama is 33-14 in its last 47 games against teams averaging 200 or more rushing ypg. The teams combined to go 12-6 to the under when the total was between 40 and 55 this season and we can expect that to continue here. 10* Under (151) Alabama Crimson Tide/(152) Clemson Tigers |
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01-11-16 | Spurs v. Nets +14.5 | Top | 106-79 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
After the Nets fired head coach Lionel Hollins on Sunday and reassigned general manager Billy King within the organization, we can expect a huge effort from Brooklyn tonight. We see it all the time when a coach gets fired ,teams tend to have a great effort in the first game for the next coach whether or not they even agreed with the decision. Brooklyn has lost four straight games, both straight up and against the number while San Antonio has won seven straight games, covering five of those. Obviously, we know who the better team here is and the Spurs are tagged with the road favorite role but this number is out of control. As a comparison, San Antonio has been favored in each of its last 15 road games and this is the largest one yet, and this includes games against Philadelphia, Minnesota and Milwaukee. Taking nothing away from what the Spurs have accomplished but they have played the easiest schedule in the NBA while Brooklyn has played the third toughest. We have a situation on our side where we play against road favorites of 10 or more points that are outscoring their opponents by nine or more ppg. This situation is 57-30 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (502) Brooklyn Nets |
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01-10-16 | Jazz v. Lakers +1.5 | Top | 86-74 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the numerous injuries on the Utah side but that didn't stop the Jazz last night. Despite three of their top four scorers out, they defeated Miami at home by 15 points as the defense led the way by holding the Heat to just 83 points on 41.5 percent shooting. Playing at home has been pretty good for Utah but the road has not been kind as it is 5-12 on the highway including losses in seven straight games. While some of those were against elite teams, this is their fourth game in five nights and they may not be able to bring much to the table. The Lakers look to snap a three-game skid and while they haven't been great at home, the schedule has been a tough one. Of their last 11 home games, they have eight losses but six of those have come against teams at least six games over .500. Going back, the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss, 6-0 ATS in their last six after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing straight up record while the Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. 10* (818) Los Angeles Lakers |
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01-10-16 | Packers v. Redskins -1 | Top | 35-18 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on WASHINGTON for our NFL Game of the Year. Surprisingly, Washington is the lone home favorite in this year's Wild Card round and it might not even last considering that the Packers are, and will be in the postseason, a very public team. We played on Green Bay this past Sunday as it was trying to clinch the NFC North and it failed to do so at home no less. The Packers may have been better off with that loss as heading to Washington is arguably a better opportunity to win than playing Seattle in the first round but at this point, the Packers are just not a good football team. Green Bay has played only one bad game since the end of October as it is 3-3 in its last six games and one of those wins came on a Hail Mary and another came against Oakland in a game they lost the yardage battle by 79 yards. Washington meanwhile is peaking at the right time as it has won four straight games to claim the NFC East. The offense has been sensational over this stretch and can go toe-to-toe with the Packers if need be but that won't be necessary. While the Redskins yardage differential is not very good, finding ways to win is what counts and that is what they have been doing. They are 6-1 in their last seven home games, covering five of those and a win here likely means a cover. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record while the Redskins are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (108) Washington Redskins |
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01-10-16 | Richmond -2 v. Fordham | Top | 93-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
Richmond fell short of its goal last season of making the NCAA Tournament by the narrowest of margins as its 21-14 record wasn't quite good enough but its No. 1 seed in the NIT solidified how close it was. With four starters back this season, the goal is clear but the Spiders cannot afford to lose any more winnable games which is where this game falls. They are off to a 0-2 start in the Atlantic Ten with a home loss to St. Joseph's and a road loss to Rhode Island and those were both swing games that could have gone either way. Fordham is off to a surprisingly good start at 10-3, matching its win total from all of last season. The Rams are 1-1 in the conference, coming off a less than impressive win over LaSalle although the Explorers did just defeat No. 25 Dayton yesterday. All 10 wins have come at home but none of those wins have come against a team that is even close to Richmond what Richmond has. The Spiders have won nine straight in this series and while this is arguably the best Rams team over this stretch, the line is taking that into consideration. Lay the short road price here. 10* (833) Richmond Spiders |
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01-10-16 | Seahawks v. Vikings OVER 40 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -107 | 120 h 53 m | Show |
These teams met here just over a month ago and we are seeing a total that is filled with value as it is three points less now based on recent results. The Seahawks have gone under the total in four straight games as the defense was outstanding in three of those games while the offense didn't show up in the loss to the Rams. The Vikings meanwhile have been an under team all season, staying below the total in 11 of 16 games including the last one on Sunday against the Packers that decided the NFC North. While the Seahawks have been playing at a high level of late, they have been unusually inconsistent and while they held Minnesota to just seven points and 125 total yards in that first meeting, the Vikings will have a better gameplan this time around. Minnesota has averaged 31.8 ppg on offense since that Seattle game. Going back, the over is 9-2 in the Vikings last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 7-0 to the over in their last seven games against teams averaging 4.5 ypc or more. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Seahawks last six games against teams with a winning record while the over is 16-6 in their last 22 games coming off a win over a divisional rival as an underdog .This total has already come down two points from its opener which signals a defensive battle but I expect the opposite on Sunday. 10* Over (103) Seattle Seahawks/(104) Minnesota Vikings |
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01-09-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +2.5 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 102 | 103 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on CINCINNATI for our Saturday Enforcer. This is the second meeting here in a month and the Bengals will be out to avenge a loss from that game. That was the game quarterback Andy Dalton was injured so there is definitely some added motivation even though the rivalry alone is sufficient. It is pretty common knowledge that Cincinnati has struggled during the postseason over the recent years but this is the best Bengals team during this stretch even though they come in on an average 4-4 run over the second half. Cincinnati actually outgained the Steelers in that loss while the other three losses came by just 3, 3 and 4 points. Dalton has not been declared out but has been downgraded to doubtful which means it is pretty much assured he is not going to play. A.J. McCarron has been very solid however and will be just fine here. Obviously the Steelers and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have a lot more expereience and its offense continues to roll but take away an interception return for a touchdown and Pittsburgh has averaged just 18 ppg in the first two meetings. Cincinnati hasn't won a playoff game since the 1990 season, the sixth-longest streak of postseason futility in NFL history and I really believe this is the best opportunity for to end, Dalton or no Dalton. Here, we play on home teams that are coming off two or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 50-20 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (106) Cincinnati Bengals |
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01-09-16 | UNLV -4.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 57-59 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
Wyoming is coming off a 25-10 season and a trip to the NCAA Tournament but the Cowboys lost the most production of any team in the MWC. We are seeing those issues as they are off to an 8-8 start with two of those wins coming against non-Division 1 teams. The Cowboys defeated Air Force at home last time out, easily its most quality win and that isn't saying much. UNLV is off to a 0-2 start in the MWC with those losses coming by a combined four points. This is an ultra talented team that hasn't quite gelled yet but the Rebels should get better as the season moves along and this is a must win to get back into the conference discussion. 10* (605) UNLV Runnin' Rebels |
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01-09-16 | Bulls v. Hawks -2 | Top | 105-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Chicago picked up its sixth straight win with a victory over Boston on Thursday to remain three games behind Cleveland, also winners of six in a row, in the Central Division. The Bulls have been fortunate with a favorable schedule as five of those six games came at home and while the one road win was an impressive one over Toronto, they have had the Raptors number over the last couple years with seven consecutive victories. Atlanta snapped a two-game slide with a win over Philadelphia on Thursday and while it wasn't considered a quality win, it was a much needed victory to get the offense going. The Hawks are 12-7 at home and need a statement win as they have struggled against the top teams in the league this season but we are catching a very good line here and Atlanta is 5-1 ATS this season when favored by fewer than three points. 10* (504) Atlanta Hawks |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 30-0 | Loss | -113 | 99 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on HOUSTON for our Saturday Ultimate Underdog. This is a rematch of the Week One meeting that the Chiefs won 27-20 before going on to lost five straight games. It has been quite the turnaround however as Kansas City enters the playoffs as the hottest team in the NFL with a 10-game winning streak but this has to be one of the least dominant teams involved in a streak of this magnitude. The Chiefs are outgaining opponents by less than two ypg and a lot of that is because of an anemic offense that is ranked 27th overall. They make it up with a solid defense but even those rankings are not as good as those from Houston. The Texans won their last three games to win the AFC South and while those wins were all against poor teams, Houston owns quality wins over the Jets and Bengals and on the season, they are outgaining opponents by 37.6 ypg. With Brian Hoyer back at quarterback, the Texans offense has an extra spark as he quietly had a solid season with a 91.4 quarterback rating while tossing 19 touchdowns and just seven picks. Houston has been outgained just once in its last nine games and while a deep playoff run is unlikely, the matchup here is a good one and getting home points makes it even stronger. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record while the Texans are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (102) Houston Texans |
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01-09-16 | St. Mary's v. Pepperdine +9.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
We played against St. Mary's again Thursday and admittedly got crushed. Now the Gaels will be playing a team that can win outright and not one that we are hoping that can just within the big pointspread. St. Mary's is 12-0 ATS and that is keeping the number inflated. Pepperdine is a solid team that is off to a 2-2 WCC start. The Waves are a perfect 6-0 at home and they were picked either third or fourth in the preseason conference poll showing this veteran team has the ability to compete with the usual big boys. The Gaels streak has to come to an end and here it is. 10* (592) Pepperdine Waves |
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01-09-16 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame -4 | Top | 86-82 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
Notre Dame is coming off a blowout winner at Boston College to move to .500 in the conference and heads home for its ACC home opener on Saturday. The Irish have dropped two games this season by two points or less, both of which came on a neutral floor but the dominant home court advantage is still in play this season as they are a perfect 7-0. Pittsburgh is on a nine-game winning streak and its only loss came against Purdue. The Panthers are 2-0 in the ACC but here comes a real challenge as this is their first true road game of the season and this is also the first time this season they have been an underdog. 10* (586) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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01-09-16 | Towson v. James Madison -5.5 | Top | 59-73 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
James Madison has dropped two of its first three conference games, both of which came at home so the Dukes should be out for blood here. They were picked to finish second in the CAA following a 19-14 season and with all five starters coming back so those two home losses were surprising following an eight-game overall winning streak. Towson is 2-1 in the CAA with the loss coming against Hofstra by 32 points, the team picked to finish first in the conference. The Tigers are a middle of the road team and James Madison feasted on these teams last year and we expect the same here. 10* (590) James Madison Dukes |
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01-09-16 | Vanderbilt +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
Vanderbilt is a very veteran team that is expected to make a lot of noise in the SEC as it was picked behind Kentucky in the preseason poll. It has not been a good start however as the Commodores have dropped their first two SEC games, the last coming on the road in overtime against Arkansas. They have dropped all three games away from home but look for a big effort here as they continue to be solid from long range. South Carolina is one of just two remaining undefeated teams in the nation, SMU being the other, so the Gamecocks have exceeded expectations thus far. They have been dominant at the betting window, covering five straight games and going 10-1 ATS on the season which squarely puts the value on the other side. 10* (561) Vanderbilt Commodores |
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01-09-16 | Washington v. Washington State -1 | Top | 99-95 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
Washington St. is 1-1 in the PAC 12 as it split games with UCLA and USC, the latter coming at home. The Cougars have just two home losses, the other coming against Gonzaga and while they were picked to finish last in the conference, there is not a big difference between No. 6 and No. 12. Washington is in that bottom group as well as there is not a whole lot expected from the Huskies. They are off to a 10-4 start which includes wins over UCLA and USC but both of those were at home and this is the first road game of the season for Washington which has not left its own arena since November 27th. Home losses to Santa Barbara and Oakland proves there is not a whole lot to this team. 10* (564) Washington St. Cougars |
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01-09-16 | LSU v. Florida -5 | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
We played against Florida Wednesday as Tennessee rolled to a win but we will be backing the Gators in a great bounceback spot here. Florida is 6-1 at home with the lone loss coming against Florida St. by a bucket despite going 4-25 (16 percent) from long range. LSU is coming off an upset win over Kentucky at home and now hits the road where it is just 1-2, the last road game resulting in an upset win at Vanderbilt. The Tigers are in for a big letdown now after two straight outright wins as underdogs. The Gators will be out to avenge two losses to LSU from last season as well. 10* (520) Florida Gators |
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01-08-16 | Pacers v. Pelicans +2 | Top | 91-86 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The difficulties of the Pelicans continue as they are now 11-25 this season following making the playoffs a season ago so clearly things are going the wrong way. They are coming off a home loss against Dallas as 8-point favorites and now they are home underdogs against a team with nearly an identical record as the Mavericks which is a swing that is adjusted too much. New Orleans is a game under .500 over its last 15 games so it has been playing a lot better after a horrific start. Indiana defeated Orlando on Wednesday to move five games over .500 overall but the Pacers have not been playing at a high level of late. Since a six-game winning streak that ended in early December, they are just 8-10 over their last 18 games. One big reason the Pacers could be favored is the fact they have won eight straight and covered seven straight in this series but that is a trend we will gladly buck as it is meaningless at this point. The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss while the Pacers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against the Western Conference. 10* (856) New Orleans Pelicans |
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01-08-16 | Mavs v. Bucks +1 | Top | 95-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Milwaukee is one of eight home underdogs of the nine games with lines as of early Friday and to no surprise, they are all big consensus plays from the public. Dallas is on that list as the third biggest public play as it has won two straight games to move to 21-15 on the season but the Mavericks have no chance of catching San Antonio in the Southwest Division. Dallas is 10-9 on the road this season but half of those victories have come against teams with a worse record than the Bucks. Milwaukee is not having the season it expected following a trip to the postseason last year thanks to a 41-41 record. Of their last seven losses, six have come against elite teams in the NBA as all have better records than Dallas and that seventh loss in this stretch came against the Mavericks in Dallas. Milwaukee was a 5.5-point underdog there and now the line has only shifted four points which is a smaller than expected adjustment based on the venue change. The Bucks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss while the Mavericks are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (860) Milwaukee Bucks |
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01-08-16 | Raptors v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 97-88 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
We won with Washington on Wednesday as it snuck out a cover against Cleveland but was unable to pull out the victory, suffering its second straight loss. The Wizards are catching points at home again, albeit a much smaller number, but a much better chance to snap their outright straight up slide. Overall, Washington has lost four of its last five games to fall three games under .500 and the best news that came out of that Cleveland game was that Nene and Gary Neal returned from injury and got limited minutes which will increase tonight. Toronto defeated Brooklyn last time out which snapped its two-game losing streak and while it is seven games over .500, inconsistency has been the biggest issue. The Raptors are just two games over .500 since a 5-0 start and Washington will be out for some revenge following a pair of losses against Toronto this season by a combined five points. The Raptors are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win while the Wizards are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. 10* (852) Washington Wizards |
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01-07-16 | St. Mary's v. Loyola Marymount +11.5 | Top | 73-48 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
We played against St. Mary's Saturday when it hosted San Diego and it ended up being a horrible call as the Gaels rolled once again. However we are going against them once again here. St. Mary's is 13-1 to start the season and this is already its fifth conference game, the first four resulting in wins including a 33-point victory over the Toreros. It is pretty amazing what the Gales have done as they brought back no starters from last season while possessing just two juniors and no seniors. Even more impressive it the fact they are a perfect 11-0 ATS this season, the only team in the country that has played at least three lined games and has yet to lose a game against the number. Loyola-Marymount is 0-3 in the WCC but all three of those games were on the road where it is 2-7 compared to a perfect 5-0 at home. Winning this one outright will be a challenge but St. Mary's could be caught looking ahead to a revenge game against a very good Pepperdine team on Saturday. St. Mary's has rolled in this series the last two years in all four games, another reason a full effort may not be forthcoming. 10* (762) Loyola-Marymount Lions |
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01-07-16 | Old Dominion v. Louisiana Tech -3 | Top | 56-53 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Old Dominion and Louisiana Tech both bring in four-game winning streaks and look to remain undefeated in C-USA after tonight. The Monarchs are coming off a nine-point win over Charlotte and while that was the fourth straight victory, all of those came at home where they are a perfect 7-0 this season. Conversely, they are 0-4 on the road and they failed to cover any of those four games where they were also underdogs in all of those. Louisiana Tech rolled over Southern Mississippi by 30 points on Saturday to win its conference opener and improve to a perfect 9-0 at home. The Bulldogs only had three conference losses last season and one came against Old Dominion on the road by 19 points so they have had this game circled for a while now. Louisiana Tech has covered all three games as a favorite this season all of which came on its home court. Going back, Louisiana Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games following a home win scoring 85 or more points while going 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games coming off a win by 30 or more points. 10* (758) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
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01-07-16 | Celtics +5 v. Bulls | Top | 92-101 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
Boston had last night's game in hand against the Pistons but blew a late 13-point lead in the third quarter and fell to the Pistons by five points, their third loss in four games. Boston, which went 6 of 28 from three-point range (Detroit was 10 of 27), scored only nine baskets over the last 18:50 of the game, none in the final 1:42. It was a tough loss in a game the Celtics needed but they have won three straight road games and look for a big effort tonight after last night's debacle. Chicago meanwhile has won five straight games including four straight at home, the last coming against Milwaukee as an 8.5-point favorite. So basically this line is telling us that Boston is just 3.5 points better than the Bucks? No chance. Chicago has been one of the worst cover teams in the NBA this season especially at this price range as they are 4-12 ATS as single-digit favorites of three points or more. The Celtics have been surprisingly better on the road than at home and going back, it is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Additionally, the Celtics are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Bulls are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win. 10* (703) Boston Celtics |
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01-07-16 | Louisville v. NC State +6 | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Louisville shook off a loss against rival Kentucky with a win over Wake Forest on Sunday to earn its first conference win of the season. The Cardinals now begin a stretch of six straight games where they will be favored to win by rather large amounts but there are no guarantees. Louisville was picked seventh in the preseason ACC poll and while it is off to a 12-2 start, it has beaten absolutely no one. Close losses against Kentucky and Michigan St. can argue that this team can compete but a schedule that is ranked 298th, worst in the ACC, tells me otherwise. NC State was picked just below the Cardinals and they will look to bounce back from an overtime loss at Virginia Tech, which is actually looking like a quality loss after the Hokies defeated Virginia two days later. The Wolfpack had a six-game winning streak snapped and will be out for payback after Louisville defeated them in the Sweet 16 last season by 10 points. NC State has covered both games this season following a loss and going back, the Wolfpack are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (726) NC State Wolfpack |
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01-06-16 | Ohio State v. Northwestern -2.5 | Top | 65-56 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Northwestern enters Wednesday's game with the second-best 15-game start to a season in school history following just its second loss of the season Saturday right here against Maryland. The Wildcats were riding a 10-game winning streak prior to that, the only other loss before that coming against North Carolina. Northwestern has an opportunity to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever but it needs some quality wins, starting right here. After a slow start, Ohio St. has won six straight games, including an impressive win over Kentucky on a neutral floor while opening 2-0 in the Big Ten. This is just the second true road game of the season, the first resulting in a 20-point loss against Connecticut. Ohio State has won 10 straight against Northwestern dating back to 2009, and most of the match-ups were not especially close. However, we are now catching Ohio St. in a down year and Northwestern in an upswing so the streak is finally in jeopardy. The linesmakers agree as this is the first time the Wildcats have been favored in this series since 2009, their last victory over the Buckeyes. 10* (572) Northwestern Wildcats |
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01-06-16 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -10.5 | Top | 69-76 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Iowa St. suffered its second defeat of the season last time out as it lost against Oklahoma on Saturday by four points. The Cyclones head back home where they are 7-0, winning those games by an average of close to 20 ppg, and going back they have won 29 of their last 30 home games. Iowa St. is seventh nationally and second in the Big 12 shooting 50.9 percent from the field and that number jumps to 52.1 percent at home. Texas Tech comes in with a better record at 11-1 so that will certainly get the attention of the Cyclones. It is a very impressive start for the Red Raiders which are just two wins off their total victory count from a season ago and are coming off a quality home win over Texas. Tubby Smith is doing a solid job at turning things around but tonight represents the first true road games of the season for Texas Tech and going back to 2013-14, it has lost 18 straight games away from home. The Cyclones hold a 10-3 edge in games played in Ames, including wins in the last four meetings with only one of those being decided by less than 18 points. Last year, Iowa St. rolled the Red Raiders here by 37 points. 10* (568) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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01-06-16 | Loyola-Chicago +6 v. Illinois State | Top | 52-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Illinois St. has opened the MVC season a perfect 2-0 with victories over Missouri St. and Drake, both of which have been picked to finish in the bottom half of the conference. The Redbirds now take on their first opponent that is a projected top half finisher even though Loyola-Chicago has dropped its first two conference games. Overall, the Redbirds have won and covered three straight games while conversely, the Ramblers have dropped three straight against the number and are 3-10 ATS on the season which is playing into this number. Loyola is in need of a victory to not fall too far back this early in the season and no one will be giving it a chance here with its 0-3 road record but this game will be closer than what this line may be saying. The points are definitely a premium here as we have two pretty bad offenses that are both ranked in the 300's in points scored. That also puts the Ramblers into a great situation as we play against favorites in a game involving two teams averaging between 63 and 67 ppg, after a win by six points or less. This situation is 84-45 ATS (65.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Despite the poor ATS numbers, the Ramblers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record. Play (551) Loyola-Chicago Ramblers Matt is coming off another winner last night with a Creighton BLOWOUT and is back Wednesday as the season gets ramped up! He has put up a SOLID 13-7 CBB run since December 15th and he has a profitable season to date! Going back, Matt is on a POTENT 36-25 College Basketball run and REMAINS RED HOT with THREE Wednesday Winners! |
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01-06-16 | Cavs v. Wizards +7 | Top | 121-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
After suffering rare back-to-back losses, Cleveland has caught fire once again with wins in four straight games including a 22-point rout of Toronto at home last time out. Cleveland is obviously a very public team so their lines need to be adjusted accordingly which is a reason they are 14-17-1 ATS record which is the third worst ATS percentage of the 15 teams with 19 or more victories. This is especially true on the road where Cleveland is 3-8-1 ATS as a road favorite and on the road this season it has yet to cover against a team with a losing record in six chances. Washington is coming off a blowout loss at the hands of Miami on Sunday by 22 points and of its 17 losses, 11 have come by double-digits so when it plays bad, it plays really bad. The Wizards are 4-2 in their last six home games and there is a pretty good chance they will be up for this one as most teams bring all they have against Cleveland, especially on their home floor. Washington falls into a great situation as we play against teams after two consecutive covers as a favorite going up against an opponent off a home loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 47-25 ATS (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (506) Washington Wizards |
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01-06-16 | Florida v. Tennessee +3 | Top | 69-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Both Florida and Tennessee came into 2015-16 with new head coaches and both are off to less than stellar starts. The Gators come in as road favorites which has been the norm since 2012 but I think it is a little overaggressive this season. They have played a touch schedule thus far with their four losses all coming against quality opposition but they still do not have a quality win on the road as the lone road victory came at Navy in the first game of the season. Rick Barnes was one of the best offseason hires and he is expected to turn Tennessee around in a hurry and while it is off to an average 7-6 start, it could be a lot better. Five of the six losses have come by seven points or less and all have come away from home as the Volunteers are 7-0 at home and 0-6 away from Thompson-Boling Arena. Tennessee lost its SEC opener at Auburn Saturday as it was just 3-28 from long range while the Tigers nailed 12 three-pointers and you rarely see a differential that big yet the loss was by just six points. Florida could be without forward Devin Robinson who is its third leading scorer and second leading rebounder. 10* (538) Tennessee Volunteers |
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01-05-16 | Georgetown v. Creighton -2.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Creighton looks to get back into the win column against a team that had its number a season ago. The Bluejays opened Big East play with a road win at St. John's but then returned home and got blown out by Villanova by 14 points on Saturday. They are off to a 10-5 start which is just four wins shy of their win total from all of last season so things are improving. A lot of the success is due to the solid play of Mo Watson Jr. and Cole Huff, two of the top three leading scorers and who were forced to sit out last season because of eligibility issues. Consistency has been an asset as Creighton has used the same starting line-up in every game this season, the only Big East team to do so. Last season, Creighton used 10 different starting line-up combinations. Georgetown is off to a 2-0 start in the conference with wins over Marquette and DePaul and this has been a tough team to figure out. The Hoyas have close losses against Duke and Maryland but had closer than expected wins over UNC-Wilmington and Charlotte while losing outright to UNC-Ashville. Georgetown took all three meetings last season so that certainly has the attention of the Bluejays. Georgetown is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off a home win by 10 points or more while the Bluejays are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (744) Creighton Bluejays |
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01-05-16 | Kings v. Mavs -5 | Top | 116-117 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Sacramento hits the road once again following a win in Oklahoma City last night which was its second straight win. The Kings caught a break however as Kevin Durant missed the game due to an injured toe and Russell Westbrook had one of his worst shooting nights on the season. Still, it was a big win for the Kings which puts them in a tough spot tonight against a team in much need of a victory. Dallas has dropped two straight games including a loss at home against New Orleans last time out which snapped a five-game home winning streak. The Mavericks are a solid 10-6 at home and tonight's opponent should once again increase that win total. Dallas had won six straight meetings in this series until the first meeting this season in Sacramento which resulted in a 14-point Kings victory. The good news now is that Dallas is home where it has won 21 consecutive games over San Francisco. Dallas falls into a solid situation where we play against road underdogs that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 104 points or more three straight games. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Kings are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a win while the Mavericks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. 10* (706) Dallas Mavericks |
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01-04-16 | Spurs v. Bucks +10 | Top | 123-98 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Milwaukee is coming off a 2-2 roadtrip but does have momentum as it took care of business the last two games. The Bucks hit the road once again tomorrow as they head to Chicago so this home stop is important especially against a top caliber team like San Antonio. It has been a rugged stretch as the Bucks have played nine of their last 11 games on the road and they have been pretty solid at home with a 9--6 record which includes wins over Cleveland and Golden St. so there will be no intimidation here. The Spurs are riding a four-game winning streak with all of those games taking place at home where they are a perfect 20-0. The road has not been as good where they have the same record that the Bucks have at home so a case can be made that this line is inflated simply because of name. Milwaukee lost the first meeting this season by 25 points so there is added motivation. The Bucks fall into a revenge situation as well as we play on underdogs that are revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points going up against an opponent off a win against a division rival. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Milwaukee is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games after playing a game as a road underdog this season while going 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (512) Milwaukee Bucks |
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01-04-16 | West Virginia v. TCU +10.5 | Top | 95-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
TCU is coming off a successful season overall last year but the conference season was a disaster. The Horned Frogs opened 13-0 but went on to lose 15 of their last 20 games, all of which were conference games. The winning streak was halted almost a year ago to the day right here in Fort Worth against this same West Virginia team so this game has been circled for 366 days. The issue last year was on the road as TCU was much more competitive at home and that has been the case this year as it 6-2 at home and 1-2 on the road and while they are 0-3 in their last three lines games, all were on the highway including a 21-point loss at Oklahoma St. in their Big XII opener. West Virginia won its conference opener Saturday at Kansas St. in overtime so that puts the Mountaineers in a tough position here with a quick turnaround in another road game. Making it tougher is the fact West Virginia has Oklahoma St., Kansas and Oklahoma on deck. Going back, the Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win while the Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. 10* (526) TCU Horned Frogs |
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01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday night Primetime game. The NFC North Divisional title is on the line Sunday night between the Vikings and Packers. We played on them last week and they burnt us badly as they were demolished in Arizona but we will be backing them again this week at home. Minnesota meanwhile destroyed the Giants last Sunday night in a game the Giants had nothing to play for so these two recent results is keeping this line at a manageable number. This game is nothing new for Green Bay as it will play for the NFC North title in the regular-season finale for a third straight season after winning the first two. It has been an up and down season for the Packers and despite two home losses, they actually won the yardage battle in those games. The offense has looked shaky as Aaron Rodgers has at times looked uncomfortable but this is the stage he loves as he has never lost a home divisional game when coming off a loss and facing an opponent that is coming off a victory. They also have a great situation on their side as we play on favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off a road loss. This situation is 33-13 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (326) Green Bay Packers |
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01-03-16 | Fordham v. George Washington -10 | Top | 63-69 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Fordham is one win away from matching its win total from all of last season so while it may seem like this is a vastly improved team, it really isn't. The Rams opened the season with a loss at Texas Arlington and then a very favorable schedule came into play as they have not left New York since then. They played nine straight home games against practically no one before facing a bad Boston College teams in Brooklyn on December 22nd and lost by nine points. But because of the overall 9-2 record, Fordham is not catching the usual huge number and we will take advantage. George Washington opens conference play as one of the favorites in the Atlantic Ten Conference. The Colonials are 11-2 including an impressive win over Virginia, the Cavaliers lone loss this season. They are 8-0 at home, winning by nearly 15 ppg and should have no issues today as long as they play to their ability. Fordham is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against teams outscoring their opponents by 8.0 or more ppg while going 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games after playing two consecutive games as favorite. The Colonials have covered seven of their last eight home games and are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (834) George Washington Colonials |
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01-03-16 | Raiders +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the RAIDERS for our NFL Game of the Week. We played against the Chiefs last week and will do so again this week as they continue to be overvalued. Sure, Kansas City has won nine straight games but has done so in ugly fashion as it has outgained only one opponent by more than 82 yards and the Chiefs have actually been outgained in four of their last five games. While there is more on the line for Kansas City, this is a big game for Oakland as a win would put the Raiders at 8-8 for the first time since 2011. On the season, Oakland is getting outgained by just 23.2 ypg and of their eight losses, four have come by less than what it is getting here. Additionally, the Raiders have the benefit of extra rest following their last game which was last Thursday. Here, we play against home favorites that are averaging 4.5 or more ypc going up against teams allowing between 3.5 and 4.5 ypc, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game. This situation is 46-15 ATS (75.4 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Raiders are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points while the Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (315) Oakland Raiders |
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01-03-16 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 75 h 58 m | Show |
There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Rams are the lone road favorite with no playoff implications but their upset win last Sunday at Seattle coupled with the season long problems for San Francisco has put them in a rare road favorite role. St. Louis has won and covered three straight games while the 49ers have lost three in a row both straight up and against the number putting the home team in a great contrarian spot here. The real kicker is that despite the three straight victories, the Rams were outgained in all three games and have been outgained in seven straight games. San Francisco meanwhile has won the yardage battle in its last three home games. Here, we play against favorites after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 59-27 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a win against a division rival. 10* (330) San Francisco 49ers |
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01-03-16 | Hawks v. Knicks +5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Atlanta is playing at a high level of late as it has won seven of its last eight games to take the lead in the Southeast Division which currently sits at one game over Miami and two games over Orlando. Three of these wins have come on the road where the Hawks are now 9-7 on the season and while they are the better team overall, the home/road splits between these two teams is just one game so the fact they are road favorites of this much is a surprise. The Knicks are coming off a loss against Chicago on the road, its fifth loss in six games. Four of those have been on the road however and all against teams at least three games over .500. That included a loss in Atlanta the day after Christmas which was the second blowout loss suffered at the hands of the Hawks this season which brings payback into play. As a matter of fact, the Knicks are 13-5 ATS in 18 games when playing with double revenge this season. Additionally, the Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (802) New York Knicks |
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01-03-16 | Lions v. Bears | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -114 | 72 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the BEARS for our Sunday Enforcer. Detroit has won two straight games and five of its last seven and it could be even better if not for that Green Bay successful Hail Mary a few weeks back. The Lions are just 2-5 on the road after finishing .500 at home. Chicago is coming off a win at Tampa Bay last week to bring in an identical 6-9 record as the Lions in a fight to stay out of the NFC North basement. We are catching a smaller than anticipated line because the Bears are just 1-6 at home including losses in four straight. Those all came by three points or less or in overtime, three coming against teams that will be in the postseason. The Bears will be out for some major payback as they have lost the last five meetings in this series. Additionally, they will look to avoid back-to-back double-digit losing seasons for the first time since 1999-2000. Chicago falls into a great situation as we play against underdogs or pickems that are allowing 24 or more ppg, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 35-14 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (322) Chicago Bears |
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01-03-16 | Jets v. Bills +3 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 72 h 44 m | Show |
There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Jets are coming off a huge win last week against the Patriots and a win here gets them into the playoffs. This line is inflated because of that as New York is 4-3 on the road while the Bills bring in an identical home record. While it was a disappointing season for Buffalo, getting back to .500 would be a solid achievement and of course, Rex Ryan would like nothing more than to prevent his former employers from making into the playoffs. Additionally, we play against favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Jets are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a losing home record while the Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. 10* (302) Buffalo Bills |
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01-03-16 | Patriots v. Dolphins +10 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 43 m | Show |
There are four home underdogs this Sunday with three of those road favorites that have playoff positions and/or seedings on the line. Because of what is at stake, the linesmakers have to make bigger than normal adjustments which is typically the case during the final week of the regular season. The Patriots lost last week in New York to prevent them from clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs but a win in Miami still gets them that goal. Winning and covering are two different things however. New England is clearly the superior team in this matchup but that has been the case for a while in this series yet the Patriots have struggled here the last three years including two outright losses and a win by just seven points. Miami would like the season on a high note and snap a three-game skid. New England was favored by just four points more at home against Tennessee which shows the overinflation of this number. Miami falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (306) Miami Dolphins |
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01-02-16 | San Diego +20.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 46-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
After opening the season 0-5, San Diego has been playing a lot better as it has won five of its last seven games. The Toreros opened West Coast Conference action on Thursday against Pacific and lost a tough one by a bucket and I expect them to be competitive here as well. They do own a quality win over San Diego St. and while this spread says this one won't be close, it is inflated for a good reason. St. Mary's is 12-1 to start the season and this is already its fourth conference game, the first three resulting in wins including an 11-point victory over BYU on Thursday. It is pretty amazing what the Gales have done as they brought back no starters from last season while possessing just two juniors and no seniors. Even more impressive it the fact they are a perfect 10-0 ATS this season, the only team in the country that has played at least three lined games and has yet to lose a game against the number. That is the reason this line is so big and will prove to be too big here. 10* (657) San Diego Toreros |
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01-02-16 | Pistons v. Pacers -4 | Top | 82-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Indiana won at Detroit in its fourth game of the season and first victory of 2015-16 but Detroit got its payback in the second meeting at home, a 22-point win last month. Now the Pacers will try to get their own revenge while also looking to snap a three-game skid. Indiana lost at Chicago on Wednesday in overtime and could not recover at home as it lost to Milwaukee the next night. Detroit snapped a three-game slide with a win over Minnesota on New Year's Eve, rolling by 25 points. The Pistons improved to 11-5 at home but are just 7-10 on the road, nearly identical home/road splits as the Pacers. Since a 3-0 start on the road, Detroit has won only four times with two of those wins coming against 3-32 Philadelphia and 12-21 Minnesota. The Pacers have a great situation on their side as we play on favorites that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 120 points or more. This situation is 58-27 ATS (68.2 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Indiana is 12-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season while the Pistons are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games. 10* (506) Indiana Pacers |
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01-02-16 | Kansas State v. Arkansas -12.5 | Top | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 71 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on ARKANSAS for our Bowl Game of Year. Surprisingly, there have been three teams this bowl season that entered with five wins and won their bowl game, San Jose St., Minnesota and Nebraska. I do not see that happening for Kansas St., not even close. I consider them a five-win team because one win came against South Dakota of the FCS and another came against 0-12 Kansas so the six wins are skewed. It would be a great way to end the career of head coach Bill Snyder but this is a horrible matchup for the Wildcats. And it still may not even be his last year because rumors are swirling he wants to come back for one more season. Arkansas was supposed to have a breakout season but instead, finished 7-5 no thanks to early losses against Toledo, Texas Tech and Texas A&M. The Razorbacks did go on to win sic of their last eight games however, one loss coming against Alabama and the other coming against Mississippi St. by just one point. Three of those victories came on the road at Tennessee, Mississippi and LSU so those were definitely quality wins. The offense really got things going late in the season and the Razorbacks finished 2nd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency while on the other side of the ball, Kansas St. finished 75th in adjusted defensive efficiency so it will be a complete mismatch. The Wildcats offense also finished 75th so those are two horrible rankings for a supposed bowl team. Arkansas was not a great defensive team but the only team that lit it up in regulation was Mississippi St. as three of their games went into overtime. Arkansas has a great situation on its side as we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that are coming off a win by three points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (276) Arkansas Razorbacks |
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01-02-16 | Syracuse +11 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 51-64 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
Miami has won six straight games since suffering its first and only loss of the season at home against Northeastern. The Hurricanes are coming off a less than impressive effort against Princeton in their final tuneup before conference action gets going. Miami missed the NCAA Tournament last season despite 21 wins and came one win away from capturing the NIT so expectations and goals are high this season. Still, this is a big number to cover and while Syracuse has been inconsistent this season, the Orange are getting a very favorable number today. They lost their ACC opener on Wednesday at Pittsburgh but it was a much closer game than the 11-point defeat shows as it was close near the end before the Panthers pulled away. Rebounding was the difference there and that is the one area they need to clean up here. Syracuse falls into a great contrarian situation as we play against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points that are shooting 45 percent or better while allowing 42 percent or better, after five straight games of allowing 40 percent or better shooting. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (559) Syracuse Orange |
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01-01-16 | 76ers v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
We are all aware who the worst team in the NBA is but the Sixers have been playing decent of late as after opening the season with 18 straight road losses, they have won two of their last three on the highway including a win at Sacramento two nights ago. The offense has come to life in those victories and while they are facing a brutal defense tonight, the Lakers will have the edge. Los Angeles is clearly the second worst team in the league but the NBA did it no favors early on as the schedule has been one of the toughest. Not only have the Lakers been facing quality opposition, they have played two-thirds of their games on the road as their 11 home games played are the fewest in the NBA. Los Angeles will be out for some revenge here as well as it allowed the Sixers their first victory of the season following 18 straight losses. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are allowing 103 or more ppg going up against an opponent after scoring 110 points or more. This situation is 71-33 ATS (68.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (810) Los Angeles Lakers |
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01-01-16 | Ole Miss -7 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 48-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
Oklahoma St. had a chance to run the table in the Big XII after a 10-0 start but was gashed at home against Baylor and two different backup quarterbacks before getting annihilated against Oklahoma, also at home, to end the regular season. I don't see how this team can get up even though it is a major bowl game. And even if the Cowboys do, they are going to have a tough time stopping the Mississippi offense. The Rebels are ranked 10th in total offense and 12th in scoring offense, racking up 514.8 ypg and 40.3 ppg respectively. They are balanced and the running game will be a huge advantage here as they really picked things up the last five games since the return of Laremy Tunsil on the offensive line. Oklahoma St. is ranked 83rd against the run with 185.3 ypg allowed and gave up 344 to the Sooners in their last game. The Rebels amassed 200 or more yards in three of those final five games. Oklahoma St. has an explosive offense but the Rebels match up well. We saw a similar outcome on Tuesday when LSU, which has a similar defense, held another spread offense, Texas Tech, to just 27 points and 399 total yards. The Rebels will be without defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche which is a tough loss but there is plenty more talent on that side of the ball. The Cowboys quarterback situation is sticky as starting quarterback Mason Rudolph missed most of the Oklahoma game because of a foot injury which required surgery. He is questionable and is far from 100 percent. 10* (271) Mississippi Rebels |
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01-01-16 | Mavs v. Heat -3 | Top | 82-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Miami is coming off an overtime loss at Memphis which was only the third time all season that the Heat have followed up a loss with another loss. They are now 9-3 following a defeat overall which includes a perfect 3-0 record at home when directly coming off a road game. Dallas hits the road following a three-game homestand that it swept which includes a victory over the Warriors on Wednesday and with a revenge game against New Orleans tomorrow, the Mavericks are in a tough sandwich spot here. Overall, Dallas has won four straight games and while it is 9-8 on the road, only one of those nine wins have come against teams with a winning record, which was a four-point win in Boston. The Mavericks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 10 points while the Heat are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss. 10* (804) Miami Heat |
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