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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-19-15 | Texas -1 v. Butler | Top | 48-56 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
While teams like Temple and Colorado St. were left out of the NCAA Tournament, Texas was one of the squads that has taken heat for being included. I think the Longhorns have every right to here as they played one of the toughest schedules in the country and came away with 20 victories. They no doubt struggled against the top teams around but managed an 18-3 record against teams ranked outside the RPI top 25 and that is where Butler falls. The Bulldogs were a big surprise in the Big East this season with a 12-6 conference record but they were ousted in the first round of the conference tournament and come in with very little momentum. Of their 12 conference wins, only four came against teams also participating in the NCAA Tournament. Butler is the much higher seed here but is the underdog and for good reason. While guard play is considered one of the bigger assets in the tournament, Texas towers over Butler and will take advantage of the inside mismatches as the Longhorns are eighth in the country in rebounding and Butler's tallest player is just 6'9". Texas is 10-3 ATS this season away from home when playing against a team with a winning record while Butler is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against winning teams. 10* (719) Texas Longhorns |
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03-18-15 | Boise State v. Dayton -4 | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
This is a home game for Dayton and while some will argue that is unfair, the real argument is that they should not even have to be playing in this game. The NCAA Tournament Committee has the 25-8 Flyers ranked as they No. 46 team despite having an RPI of 32 and the scary part is that they were a Connecticut victory away from going to the NIT. The Broncos are no pushovers as also finished with a 25-8 record after a 15-5 run in the MWC. A tough overtime loss to Wyoming certainly hurt their seeding and they caught no breaks in having to face Dayton on the Flyers home floor. Dayton did not lose on this floor this season, outscoring opponents by over 14 ppg and while this isn't considered a true home game because of the event, you have to treat it like one. Boise St. is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. The Flyers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against teams that shoot better than 45 percent and allow less than 42 percent. Additionally, they have won all seven games this season following a loss and that continues on Wednesday. 10* (626) Dayton Flyers |
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03-18-15 | Vanderbilt v. St. Mary's -2.5 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
This is the lowest spread of all of the 4/5 matchups in the NIT so either St. Mary's is being undervalued, Vanderbilt is being overvalued or a combination of the two. Granted the Gaels didn't exactly finish very strong as they lost to Santa Clara in their regular season finale and then got pummeled against Portland in the ACC Tournament. This is still an extremely talented team that went 21-9 overall including 14-4 at home. They treated bettors very well, going 17-9-2 ATS including 15-6-2 ATS as favorites. In this price range, they were a perfect 5-0 ATS when favored by fewer than five points. With the exception of Kentucky, it was a very down year in the SEC and Vanderbilt was one of those teams. The Commodores finished 9-10 in the conference after the SEC Tournament and were victims of a 4-7 record on the road. They were decent underdogs but they fall into a poor situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that are coming off a loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 83-45 ATS (64.8 percent) since 1997. Also, St. Mary's is 9-1 ATS in its last games after a double-digit loss. 10* (638) St. Mary's Gaels |
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03-18-15 | Orlando Magic +12 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
We lost with Orlando last night as the Magic were in their game withy the Rockets for three quarters but were outscored 30-16 in the final frame to blow the cover by a buckets. We will come right back with them here though as the line value has gotten better as they are catching a bigger number against a tea with a worse record than Houston that is sitting in a horrible situation. As mentioned yesterday, they have been the best team in the NBA in there spots as they are 14-4 ATS this season in road games when playing against teams with a winning record and an even better 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games against teams with a winning home record. Dallas took care of Oklahoma City on Monday, its second straight win over a conference heavyweight and while that not only puts them on a breather alert, they have a huge revenge game against Memphis on Friday before another revenge game at Phoenix and then a home-and-home set with the Spurs. Orlando falls into a great contrarian situation here as we play on double-digit road underdogs with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 173-116 ATS (60 percent) since 1996. 10* (613) Orlando Magic |
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03-18-15 | Portland Trail Blazers -2 v. Miami Heat | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Miami is coming off a win over Cleveland on Monday, its second home victory over the Cavaliers this season. The Heat responded with a home loss two nights later against Memphis and that has been a typical theme for them all year as the Heat are 0-12 ATS in 12 games coming off a win as an underdog this season. They are still fighting for a playoff spot as they are in a three-way tie for seventh place in the Eastern Conference but sitting three games under .500 at home shows there is little edge here. Miami has won consecutive games only eight times all season. Portland is sitting in third place in the Western Conference as its eight-game lead over Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division is looking pretty solid,. The Blazers are coming off a loss though at Washington on Monday, one of their uglier games of the season as they fell behind by as many as 25 points in the eight-point defeat. They have covered five straight games after allowing over 100 points and they fall into a solid situation where we play against teams in the second half of the season where the line is +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams allowing between 43.5 and 45.5 percent, after a game where they shot 55 percent or better. This situation is 35-13 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (607) Portland Trailblazers |
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03-17-15 | Ole Miss v. BYU -4 | Top | 94-90 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Mississippi and BYU enter the first round in different directions. The Rebels, who many are saying should not even be here, have lost four of their last five games including two defeats against non-tournament teams, and of their 11-7 SEC record, only one of those victories came against a team that is also in the Big Dance. BYU meanwhile had won eight straight games before losing to Gonzaga in the WCC championship game and that certainly qualifies as a quality defeat. While the Cougars quality of wins is also limited, a lot of that is due to their conference and schedule which it is hard to keep them accountable for. Four losses came against NCAA Tournament teams and those came by an average of 4.5 ppg and all of those teams much higher ranked than the Rebels. The backcourt of Tyler Haws and Kyle Collinsworth can take this team a long way but it does not with them as the return of another key guard is huge as well. Anson Winder will return after missing two games and he is one of four backcourt players averaging double figures in points. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record while the Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* (538) BYU Cougars |
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03-17-15 | St Louis Blues v. Calgary Flames +135 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
We often talk about line value and this is an instance of some of the best you will find. We played on St. Louis Sunday in Dallas as a -108 favorite and it ended up closing as a +108 underdog and that was against a team with 74 points and more than likely completely out of the playoff picture. Now the Blues are -150 favorites at the high point against a Calgary team that has 81 points and is tied for third place in the Pacific Division without a lot of room for error. While the Blues are going after the Presidents' Trophy, the Flames are one point out of the playoff race completely which shows how big of a game this is. They are coming off a loss at Colorado in their last game on Saturday which was their eighth road game over the last 10 and home ice has been solid of late as Calgary is 8-4 over its last 12 home games after a 0-3 start in 2015 and overall it is 19-15 at home. This is the first of five straight home games and while it is the toughest of the bunch, a good start to the homestand is vital. Here, we play against road teams against the money line that are coming off a divisional win going up against an opponent coming off a road loss by one goal. This situation is 82-39 (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Calgary is 11-4 coming off a road loss this season. 10* (16) Calgary Flames |
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03-17-15 | William & Mary +7.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Motivation is a huge piece of the college basketball postseason and both of these teams are certainly disappointed for being in the NIT. William & Mary once again missed out on an NCAA Tournament bid which would have been its first ever after losing in the CAA Championship to Northeastern. Meanwhile, Tulsa blew a big, late lead against Connecticut in the AAC semis and its body of work was not good enough for it to get into the field of 68 but was able to nab one of the four No. 2 seeds here. While the Tribe has been off for a week to let the disappointment dissipate, the Golden Hurricane are coming off their loss just this past Saturday and are being asked to lay a big number in a bad matchup. They possess a solid defense but will be facing one of the top offenses around as William & Mary shoots 48.6 percent from the floor including 39.1 percent from long range. Tulsa meanwhile is hitting just 42.1 percent on the season while averaging 64.2 ppg and those numbers drop considerably over the recent past. On order to cover big numbers, teams need to score and Tulsa does not have that capability. The Tribe are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss while Tulsa is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (547) William & Mary Tribe |
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03-17-15 | Orlando Magic +11.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Orlando blew a chance to break its three-game losing skid against Cleveland on Sunday as shot 47.7 percent from the floor including 47.4 percent from long range while outrebounding the Cavaliers 17-3 on the offensive glass. The issue was that Cleveland shot 59.2 percent while going 18-35 from behind the arc so there was nothing Orlando could do. Now the Magic hit the road for two games in two days and while the task here may seem daunting, they have been the best team in the NBA in this particular situation. That being they are 14-3 ATS this season in road games when playing against teams with a winning record and an even better 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Rockets are coming off a road win at Los Angeles on Sunday which put them a half-game out of third place in the Western Conference and two games clear of fifth place. They have been solid at home all season no doubt but this is one of those unmotivated letdown spots which is enhanced even more with the double-digit spread. The Magic fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play on road underdogs of 10 or more points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. This situation is 201-135 ATS (60 percent) since 1996. 10* (531) Orlando Magic |
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03-16-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Sacramento Kings +5 | Top | 110-103 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This line was released late due to the status of some key players for both sides. The Hawks will be without Kyle Korver who was injured last night and Al Horford who is going to be rested following a big game last night. The move makes since as Atlanta has games at Golden St. and Oklahoma City which conclude this six-game roadtrip. They can afford it because of a 10-game lead in the Eastern Conference. Things could not have gone worse on Saturday for the Kings as they blew a 21-point lead and lost by 16 points against Washington, the final game of a disappointing 2-6 roadtrip. Included in that was a loss in Atlanta by 25 points as the Hawks recorded an NBA season-high 42 assists and shot 60.2 percent from the field while making 20 three-pointers. To say this is a revenge game would be an understatement while Sacramento has been solid coming off bad games as it is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Kings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road trip of seven or more days while the Hawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (518) Sacramento Kings |
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03-15-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Orlando Magic +10.5 | Top | 123-108 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
The chances of Cleveland catching Atlanta in the Eastern Conference are slim to none as it is 10 games behind the Hawks but it is laying double-digits on the road for just the third time this season. While the Cavaliers won and covered both of those games, the situations were extremely different. In those cases, they were coming off wins against Sacramento and Washington ,not exactly letdown enhancing victories, while they had Philadelphia and Detroit in their next games. Flash back to the present and they are coming off a big overtime win over San Antonio, their third straight victory but most important they head to Miami tomorrow night in LeBron James' second trip back to Miami and the first one did not go well. Cleveland lost by 10 points on Christmas and while it got revenge at home, you know how important tomorrow will be. The Magic have dropped three straight but all of those were on the road and they do bring in a two-game home winning streak. Orlando is 9-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog and falls into a great situation where we play on underdogs that are revenging a home loss going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive road wins. This situation is 80-39 ATS (67.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (876) Orlando Magic |
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03-15-15 | St Louis Blues -105 v. Dallas Stars | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
With its home loss yesterday against Minnesota and the Nashville victory in Los Angeles, St. Louis is now two points behind the Predators in the Central Division. The Blues have a good chance at tying back up with a win today and Nashville having to play in Anaheim. St. Louis had its three-game winning streak snapped by the Wild and will be out to avenge to home losses against the Stars from earlier this season. Dallas has won three straight and five of its last six thanks to a 4-1 roadtrip. The Stars are one of a select few teams in the league that have performed better on the road than they have at home as their 13-21 record in Dallas is pretty unattractive. Dallas remains within six points of Winnipeg, which holds the second Wild Card spot in the Western Conference but there are still three teams between them as well so making the postseason is pretty slim at this point for the Stars. The Blues are 19-14 on the road and they fall into a solid situation where we play against home underdogs against the money line with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after having won four of their last five games. This situation is 62-20 (75.6 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Dallas is 2-9 in its last 11 games following three consecutive wins. 10* (5) St. Louis Blues |
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03-15-15 | Connecticut v. SMU -2.5 | Top | 54-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
We lost with Tulsa last night in a tough finish for the Golden Hurricane as they had the game firmly in hand until Connecticut went on a 14-1 run over the course of the final three and half minutes to win by five. The Huskies can return to the NCAA Tournament with a win today but this is the biggest challenge thus far. The Mustangs survived two slow starts through their first two AAC Tournament games but were able to pull away in both. They won 23 regular-season games and were in the Top 25 before losing last year's AAC opener and getting left out on Selection Sunday so they are out for some retribution today. While an NCAA Tournament bid is guaranteed this season no matter the outcome, SMU is looking to win its first tournament title since the 1988 Southwest Conference championship. The Mustangs have also not forgotten about their last defeat, an eight-point loss against the Huskies on March 1st. Playing four games in four days is no easy task as we saw with North Carolina last night and the challenge will be just as tough for Connecticut. The Huskies are just 2-5 ATS this season as underdogs of fewer than seven points while the Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (894) SMU Mustangs |
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03-15-15 | Arkansas +13.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
The problem for a lot of teams that have faced Kentucky is the confidence level in trying to win is extremely low but that is not the case for Arkansas. The Razorbacks come into the SEC Championship extremely confident thinking that they are the one team that can finally take down the Wildcats. Arkansas is 13-3 over its last 16 games and while one of those losses came against Kentucky, Razorbacks insisted they had learned their lesson, and that Sunday's title game would be different. Plus that game took place in Lexington where Kentucky was favored by 15.5 points and is now favored by only two points less on a neutral floor. Kentucky snapped a three game Arkansas winning streak against them at Rupp Arena a little more than two weeks ago, and now have to face the second best team in the SEC once again. Arkansas is No. 17 in the RPI so this team is no pushover and while all of the talk is about beating Kentucky, we are happy with the inflated line we are getting today. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. 10* (887) Arkansas Razorbacks |
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03-14-15 | Nashville Predators +145 v. Los Angeles Kings | Top | 2-1 | Win | 145 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Here we have two teams heading in opposite directions but because of that, we are getting an exceptional number tonight. Nashville is coming off a loss at San Jose on Thursday as it was shutout 2-0 which made it seven losses over its last eight games but the Predators are still tied with St. Louis in the Central Division with 91 points which is only two points behind Anaheim for the most points in the league. They have pretty average on the road this season but this is one place they have had a lot of success over the years. The Kings meanwhile have won two straight games following a 4-0 shutout at Vancouver on Thursday. Los Angeles has now won 12 of its last 16 games and has passed Winnipeg for the second Wild Card spot in the Western Conference and the Kings are now only two points behind Calgary for second place in the Pacific Division. They are not in a good spot tonight though as they are 9-21 against the money line in their last 30 games coming off a win by four goals or more and they fall into a negative contrarian situation. He we play on teams against the money line after scoring two goals or less in three straight games going up against an opponent after scoring four goals or more in two straight games. This situation is 60-34 (63.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (73) Nashville Predators |
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03-14-15 | North Carolina v. Notre Dame +3.5 | Top | 82-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Notre Dame was able to avenge a 30-point loss to Duke by upsetting the Blue Devils last night to advance to the ACC Championship and it is once again getting no respect. Despite a better record overall and in the conference as well as a higher RPI, the Fighting Irish are catching points and a lot of points for that matter. The offense continues to perform at a very high level as the are now shooting 50.9 percent on the season and they are 2nd in the country in effective field goal percentage, trailing only Gonzaga in that category. North Carolina has no doubt been impressive in the tournament so far but I think it runs out of gas playing its fourth game in four days. The Tar Heels shot 55 percent against Virginia's tough defense, controlled the boards and played solid defense of their own but repeating that performance will be next to impossible. After beating just one team that's currently ranked before arriving in Greensboro, North Carolina has won the last two games against ranked teams but it is 3-6 on the season against teams in the RPI 25. one of those losses came at home against Notre Dame so while the Tar Heels will be out to avenge that loss, the matchup simply is not a good one. Notre Dame has won four of six games outright as an underdog this season. 10* (544) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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03-14-15 | Brooklyn Nets -5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 94-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Philadelphia is coming off a rare win last night as it defeated Sacramento by overcoming an 18-point deficit so I see a big letdown coming tonight. The Sixers have won back-to-back games only three times the entire season, going 3-11 overall following a victory and they catch the Nets at a bad time. Brooklyn has dropped five straight games, failing to cover any of those games as well. The Nets have been off since Wednesday and while being a road favorite has been rare, they have won five of seven games in this role including a win and cover here in the first meeting this season. They will also be out to avenge a home loss to the Sixers in the most recent meeting and going back, the Nets are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games while going 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. additionally, we play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a losing record that are revenging a loss. This situation is 90-48 ATS (65.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (505) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-14-15 | Temple v. SMU UNDER 127 | Top | 56-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
These are two of the top defenses in the AAC and because of significant over runs that have taken place lately, we are getting a higher than expected total. Temple has gone over in three straight games and six of its last eight while the Mustangs have also surpassed the total in three straight games while going over in eight of their last nine. Both games from yesterday cleared the total with ease but those had a lot to do with the matchups and there is a dramatic difference today. The first meeting saw just 115 points scored while the second meeting finished with 125 points as late free throws inflated that one. We should see a slower paced game as Temple is ranked 183rd in the country in possessions per game while SMU is ranked 282nd and the defenses are even better. The Owls are 14th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense while SMU comes in ranked 83rd in that category. Temple scored 80 points yesterday which was just the fifth time is has scored 80 or more but it has failed to capitalize in its next game including putting up just 55 points last time it occurred. On the other side, the Mustangs have scored 70 or more points 12 times but have been held to an average of just 63 ppg in the following contest. 10* Under (531) Temple Owls/(532) SMU Mustangs |
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03-13-15 | Detroit Pistons +8.5 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 99-118 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
The Pistons are fading in the Eastern Conference as they have dropped eight straight games to fall six games out of the playoff picture but tonight presents a good opportunity for a bounce back. Detroit played a solid game two nights ago against the Warriors and while this is their third straight road game, this is not the game to be concerned about as tomorrow will be its fourth game in five nights against a resurgent Utah team. The Pistons are obviously not a great road team based on wins and losses but they have been overly competitive at these prices, going 9-3 ATS this season when getting eight or more points. Portland won on Wednesday against Houston and this is a game the Blazers may not be fully into following that victory as well as embarking on a five game roadtrip right after this. They have one of the best home courts in the NBA but they pay the price for it and on the season Portland is just 10-14 ATS when favored by six or more points. Going back, the Pistons are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (817) Detroit Pistons |
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03-13-15 | South Carolina v. Georgia -2.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Thanks to the double bye, Georgia has been off since last Saturday which is a very good thing. Six days off could possibly give this team the rest sufficient to regain full health for the first time since early January, as the SEC schedule tipped off. The Bulldogs are a projected No. 9 seed heading into the SEC Tournament and while a loss will not knock them out, a decent run can bolster their seeding. Georgia has won 20 games in consecutive seasons for just the second time in school history and it has helped this year because of its success away from home. Georgia lost two road games, at South Carolina and at Kentucky, without leading scorer and rebounder Marcus Thornton, who missed the games because of a concussion. The Bulldogs actually lost both meetings with the Gamecocks this season so they are playing with double-revenge tonight. South Carolina upset Mississippi last night for its third consecutive win but it is in a tough spot playing for the third time in three days. While the Gamecocks won last night, they are still just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (850) Georgia Bulldogs |
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03-13-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Dallas Mavericks -1.5 | Top | 99-129 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The Mavericks have been seething for a few nights since getting blown out against Cleveland at home on Tuesday, their fifth loss in their last seven games. Only one of those was considered a bad loss though as getting beaten at home against Brooklyn is nothing to be proud of but three of those losses came on the road against the Hawks, Blazers and Warriors. Dallas lost by 33 points against the Cavaliers in a game that was pretty much over by halftime and the extended time off was a welcomed break after playing five games in nine days. The Clippers took care of Oklahoma City on Wednesday and while we were on their side then, we will go against them here as they are catching six points less tonight. Los Angeles has dominated the first two meetings this season, winning by 20 and 17 points and while that could be playing into the number slightly, the motivational factor on the other side is substantial. The Clippers have been without Blake Griffin for a while, will be without Jamal Crawford for the fifth straight game and have a banged up Chris Paul so this is the perfect time for Dallas to take advantage and gets its payback while moving back ahead of San Antonio in the Western Conference playoff race. 10* (812) Dallas Mavericks |
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03-13-15 | Miami Heat v. Toronto Raptors -5.5 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
While this is far from a breather, it is a nice break in the schedule that Toronto definitely needed. The Raptors have played nine of their last 11 games on the road and while two of those were against the Sixers and Knicks, the other nine were against playoff participants or contenders. Miami is part of that group but the Heat are far from a deserving playoff team as they are one of two teams in the Eastern Conference that have a playoff slot thus far but possess a losing record. The Raptors have lost four straight games and nine of their last 10 but prior to that they defeated the Clippers, Spurs, Wizards and Hawks in a four-game stretch so they are obviously capable. This is one team that Toronto has been unable to solve as it has dropped 16 straight meetings with the Heat but only one of those has taken place this season with a totally different team than in the past and that was on the road. Miami is coming off a win over Brooklyn but it is 6-19 ATS coming off a win this season while going 7-20 ATS after a game where it covered the spread. The Raptors meanwhile are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games following four or more consecutive losses. 10* (808) Toronto Raptors |
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03-13-15 | North Carolina v. Virginia -3.5 | Top | 71-67 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Virginia had no issues with Florida St. in its tournament opener on Thursday and its hope of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament could very well rest on this game. The Cavaliers dropped their regular season finale against Louisville which opened the door for Wisconsin and Arizona to move up but a trip to the ACC Finals should lock Virginia in. the best news about their win over the Seminoles was the return of Justin Anderson who has been out since early February with a finger injury and has to then deal with appendicitis. The second leading scorer on the team only played 12 minutes and didn't score yesterday but his presence will be big tonight. The Tar Heels cruised past Boston College Wednesday and came back on Thursday with a strong second half to take out Louisville. North Carolina was far from efficient in the win and it was helped by the fact the Cardinals were just 4-22 from long range. The Tar Heels have been an underdog only four times this season, losing all four of those games outright while covering just once. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 60 points or less in three straight games. 10* (860) Virginia Cavaliers |
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03-12-15 | Cal Poly v. UC-Santa Barbara -3 | Top | 50-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
While UC Davis won the Big West Conference by three games and is the top seed heading into the conference tournament, I believe that UC Santa Barbara is the team to beat. Momentum plays a big part in the postseason and the Gauchos have that on their side now as they enter Thursday's game with a five-game win streak, their longest of the season. This included a win over Cal Poly in the regular season finale to secure the No. 2 seed in this event. The Mustangs have the opposite momentum going with four straight losses to finish 6-10 in the conference. The offense has been the culprit as they have scored 56 points in three straight games while putting up just 44 points prior to that. While the Gauchos took care of both regular season meetings this year, they are still reminded of what took place last season as the Mustangs beat them in the Big West Tournament opener by a resounding score of 69-38 and they have not forgotten. Cal Poly is 0-6 ATS in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record while the Gauchos are 6-0 ATS this season against teams shooting 42 percent or worse from the floor. 10* (590) UC Santa Barbara Gauchos |
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03-12-15 | South Carolina v. Ole Miss -2.5 | Top | 60-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
South Carolina kept its season alive with a win over Missouri yesterday in the first round of the SEC Tournament but things will not be as easy tonight. The Gamecocks finished 6-12 in conference games during the regular season which included a 2-7 record away from home with all of those losses coming by four or more points. Granted, those were true road games but they now face a team that is in desperate need of a victory and has had solid success away from home. Mississippi is a projected No. 11 seed for the NCAA Tournament so a loss here could actually be devastating. The Rebels closed the regular season with a home loss against Vanderbilt which was their lone loss this season against teams with an RPI between 51 and 100 as they won all five of the other games. That included a rout of South Carolina at home earlier in the season and this is once again a good matchup. The Gamecocks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record while the Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss and they have won nine of 10 games outright this season after suffering a defeat. 10* (558) Mississippi Rebels |
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03-12-15 | Houston Rockets +1 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 91-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
The status of Utah leading scorer Gordon Hayward has kept this game off the board in a lot of places as he is listed as questionable with a back injury. He missed the last game and the Jazz were able to overcome that however that game was against the Knicks and the challenge will be a lot tougher tonight. Utah has won three straight games, six of seven and 10 of its last 13 so it is playing at a high level, thus the reasonable number with this game. Houston is coming off a loss against Portland last night to remain two games behind Memphis is the Southwest Division. The Rockets are in fourth place in the Western Conference but they have resurgent San Antonio right on their heels so they cannot afford to lose a winnable game. Houston falls into a great situation as well as we play against favorites in the second half of the season that are allowing between 92 and 98 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after three straight games where both teams scored 95 points or less in the game involving the favorite. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. 10* (507) Houston Rockets |
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03-12-15 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Boston Bruins -110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
It has been a difficult season for Boston as it is sitting in eighth place in the Eastern Conference with just a six point lead over Florida. The Bruins have won three straight games however including their last two at home where they are a respectable 20-15 on the season. One of those victories came against Tampa Bay in January as this is one team the Bruins have been able to solve as they have won nine straight meetings in this series. Boston is 12-2 against the money line coming off a road win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The Lightning won a big game in Montreal on Tuesday in overtime to pull within a point of the Canadiens in the Atlantic Division. It was their fourth straight win and snapped a two-game road losing streak. Going back, Tampa Bay is 4-12 against the money line in road games after allowing 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Additionally, we play on teams against the money line that are coming off a win by 2 goals or more over a division rival going up against an opponent after a low scoring road game where both teams scored 1 goal or less. This situation is 38-15 (71.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (56) Boston Bruins |
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03-12-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Indiana is playing its best basketball of the season which has come at the right time as it looks to keep moving up in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers have won six straight games and going back further, they are 12-2 over their last 14 games to sneak into seventh place in the conference. However, the run has helped us in going against them as this liner is inflated and we can show that by looking at their last game where they were favored by 8.5 points against Orlando and are now favored by just one point less against a team that is 14 games better than the Magic. The Bucks defeated Orlando last night and they hit the road to try and halt a six-game road losing streak which is also helping with the value. The Bucks are four games clear of Indiana for sixth place which makes this a big game for both sides. Here, we play against home favorites in a game involving two teams with a scoring differential of +/- 3 ppg, after a win by 15 points or more. This situation is 72-36 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Milwaukee is 16-7 ATS in road games revenging a loss this season. 10* (501) Milwaukee Bucks |
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03-11-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Phoenix Suns -3.5 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Phoenix is on the outside looking in at the playoff situation in the Western Conference as it trails Oklahoma City and New Orleans by three games with the season winding down. The Suns have been up and down since the trade deadline and most recently, are coming off a loss against the Warriors on Monday at home but this is the type of game where they need to hold serve at home. The last meeting here in January, Phoenix failed to cover but it won by 11 points as a 13.5-point favorite which shows the value this time around in being able to buy a team low. Minnesota is the worst team in the Western Conference and possesses the worst road record at 5-24 including losses in eight of its last nine games with all of those defeats coming by more than what it is getting tonight. The Suns arte part of a great situation where we play on teams after two straight losses by 10 points or more going against an opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (716) Phoenix Suns |
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03-11-15 | Chicago Bulls -5.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | Top | 104-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Chicago has lost its lead in the Central Division as a one game lead has turned into a 1.5-game deficit behind Cleveland. The Bulls have dropped three straight games but while things have not gone good of late, they remain one of the best road teams in the league as their 19-12 road record is fifth best in the NBA and second best in the Eastern Conference. This is the start of a three-game swing that concludes in Charlotte and Oklahoma City so this one is imperative. The Sixers are off an upset win over Atlanta in their last game but that was all the way back on Saturday so any momentum gained from that has been lost. Playing with a lot of rest has been an issue all season anyway as Philadelphia is 0-12 when playing with two or more days off while covering just one of those games. Since February started, Philadelphia has been a home underdog eight times and this is the lowest of them all including playing some teams that will not even be in the playoffs. While the Sixers have covered three straight in this series, they were double-digit underdogs in all of those including two games at home so we grab the value in this one tonight. 10* (701) Chicago Bulls |
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03-11-15 | Marquette v. Seton Hall | Top | 78-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
It has been a major disappointment for Seton Hall in the second half of the season following a great start to the year but the talent remains to make a run in the Big East Tournament. Saying the Pirates can win it may be a stretch but getting out of the first round should be no issue and at basically a pickem price, a win likely means a cover as well. Seton Hall opened the season with a 12-2 record which wax culminated by a five-point overtime win over Villanova but then the wheels came off. The Pirates would go on to lost 12 of their final 16 games with only one of those victories coming against a winning team. The good news tonight is that they will not be facing a winning team as Marquette has had an even tougher season as it is six games under .500 overall including a 4-14 record in the conference. The Golden Eagles closed the regular season with a home win over DePaul and going nowhere in the postseason, they can call that the conclusion. Seton Hall will be out for some payback as well following a home loss against Marquette a month ago and going back, the Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 10* (766) Seton Hall Pirates |
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03-11-15 | USC v. Arizona State -6 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Arizona St. has had it share of good moments this season and this is one team in the Pac 12 Tournament that some terms should be weary about. Granted, the Sun Devils stunk on the road as they went 2-11 outside of Tempe with two of those losses taking place on a neutral floor but one of those came against Maryland by just five points. They are playing some of their best basketball now as they come in riding a 5-2 run and after starting 0-4 in the conference, they went on to win nine of their last 14 games. This includes victories against Arizona and UCLA and while those may have been at home, there should not be much resistance tonight. USC was the worst team in the Pac 12 this season with a 3-15 record with all three of those wins coming at home. The Trojans lost their nine away conference games by an average of 12.4 ppg and while a road loss by just five points at Arizona St. may look respectable, that was right after the Sun Devils win over UCLA. The Sun Devils were picked to finish ninth in the preseason media poll, and only Oregon (eighth to second) and Oregon State (12th to seventh) had better jumps. 10* (744) Arizona St. Sun Devils |
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03-10-15 | BYU +6.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 75-91 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
It was an up and down season for BYU through the first three quarters but the Cougars have caught fire at the right time and have played themselves into the NCAA Tournament. Right now they are one of the last four teams in which may be a surprise to some with their 25-8 record but they did not have many quality wins up until the end of the season that is. Gonzaga suffered one home loss this season as well as just one loss within the West Coast Conference and that happened to come against BYU in the regular season finale. While the Bulldogs will be out for payback, BYU should have no issues keeping this one close as of their eight losses on the season, the biggest one came by just seven points and those defeats were by an average of 4.75 ppg. Gonzaga is making its 18th consecutive WCC Tournament final which is an incredible run. BYU will likely be without guard Anson Winder once again and while his absence is key, he was hardly a factor in the BYU victory over Gonzaga as he tallied just four points and has averaged just 6.6 ppg over his last five games. 10* (669) BYU Cougars |
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03-10-15 | Toronto Raptors +8 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Toronto is sitting in third place in the Eastern Conference as it has been passed by Cleveland after sitting in that second spot for most of the season. The Raptors are not playing good right now as they have dropped three straight games and eight of their last nine games following a four-game winning streak in early February which was also the ending of a 10-2 run. The defense has been the main culprit as Toronto has allowed 105.2 ppg during this nine-game stretch so facing a hot offense may not be what they want but the situation is giving us a good number because of it. The Spurs have won five straight games by averaging 111.2 ppg on 47.9 percent shooting. The offense is not as good as what has been on display recently while the Raptors defense is similarly not as bad as recent times. The Spurs haven't exactly been beating elite competition as the best win over this stretch came against either Chicago or Phoenix, two very depleted teams right now. Going back, the Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against team with a winning percentage above .600. Believe it or not, this is the biggest number Toronto has seen all season and it is 4-1 ATS in five games when getting five or more points. 10* (655) Toronto Raptors |
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03-10-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 201 | Top | 127-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Sometimes streaks come together with no particular rhyme nor reason and that is the case with the Dallas over/under run. The Mavericks have stayed under the total 11 straight games and it is not due to the defense being strong throughout or the offense struggling every game. It has been a mix of both but rarely has there been consistency as well as both occurring the same night. There has been at least 99 points score by one side in eight of those games and it is a mix of both sides as Dallas has tallied that on offense four times while allowing at least a century mark five times. Meanwhile Cleveland has stayed below the total in two straight games as it has scored 97 and 89 points over that stretch which is the first time since early January the Cavaliers have failed to score 100 points at least once in consecutive games and that was when LeBron James was out. Now we are catching a smaller than anticipated total with two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA as Cleveland is eighth and Dallas is fourth. While no over trends favor Dallas because of the recent run, the over is 5-1 in the Cavaliers last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* Over (657) Cleveland Cavaliers/(658) Dallas Mavericks |
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03-10-15 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Montreal Canadiens -115 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Two huge games take place in the Eastern Conference tonight including this one between the top two teams in the Atlantic Division. Montreal leads Tampa Bay by two points and heads home following a rough roadtrip. The Canadiens dropped three straight games to San Jose, Anaheim and Los Angeles before breaking the skid with a win over hapless Arizona, a much needed victory before heading home. Montreal has won nine of its last 13 home games and on the season, it is 22-11 on home ice. Tampa Bay is riding a three-game winning streak with all of the wins coming at home against below average opposition in Buffalo, Toronto and Dallas. The Lightning improved to 267 at home but they bring in a mediocre 15-19 road record. One of those wins came here back in January and Montreal will be out to avenge losses in the first two meetings this season. Going back, the Lightning are 23-52 in their last 75 road games against team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while going 1-7 in their last eight games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. 10* (58) Montreal Canadiens |
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03-10-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Brooklyn Nets -3 | Top | 111-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
New Orleans is coming off a win last night in Milwaukee, its second straight victory following an upset of Memphis on Saturday. Going back, the Pelicans are 8-2 over their last 10 games which is keeping them in the hunt in the Western Conference. They are just a half-game out of eighth place but that team is Oklahoma City which will be a tough one to catch and seventh place is five games away so that is not a possibility. Not only is this a game being playing on no rest but this is the fourth game in five nights for the Pelicans which are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Brooklyn is fighting in the Eastern Conference but its chances are dimming as it trails eighth place Charlotte by two and a half games with two teams in-between. After opening this homestand with an upset over Golden St., the Nets have dropped three straight winnable games so while the run isn't good, the situation takes precedence. For some reason, Brooklyn has a higher winning percentage against the Western Conference and a much better ATS winning percentage as well and going back, the Nets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss. 10* (654) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-09-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Phoenix Suns OVER 216 | Top | 98-80 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Two of the three highest scoring teams in the NBA square off tonight and while this total may seem high, we are getting a bargain. One look at the last meeting will show you the value as just over a month ago, a 225 over/under was posted so we are seeing a significantly lower number. That game stayed under by 32 points which was the second under in two meetings this season and that is helping with the value as is the recent runs on both sides. Golden St. has stayed under the total in its last three games while Phoenix has stayed under the total in its last two contests. The Warriors defense has been the reason of late as they have allowed just 93.3 ppg over the three-game stretch but those games were all at home where the defense has been a lot better than on the road. Phoenix allows the second most points in the NBA at home while it averages the third most points on offense at home. The over is 12-4 in the Suns last 16 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while the over is 17-9 in the Warriors 26 games this season as a single-digit favorite. 10* Over (713) Golden St. Warriors/(714) Phoenix Suns |
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03-09-15 | Washington Wizards +2 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 95-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
We lost yesterday playing against Charlotte as the Pistons blew a late lead by getting outscored 30-17 in the fourth quarter. The Hornets have won five straight games and currently have the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference locked down but they are just a game out of falling out of the playoff picture completely. This is their second five-game winning streak of the season for Charlotte which has not surpassed a streak of this kind in five years. Washington lost in Milwaukee on Saturday which made it eight losses over the last 10 games. The Wizards have failed to cover their last nine games but we are getting value because of it. Washington was favored the last time these teams played here last month but it is now the underdog and there is some revenge on the table as well. After winning the first meeting last season, the Wizards lost the final three meetings and they have dropped the first two this season so there is no doubt some added motivation. Bradley Beal was a late scratch Saturday for rest but he will be back in the lineup tonight. Charlotte is just 12-19 ATS at home this season and the Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (701) Washington Wizards |
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03-09-15 | Northeastern v. William & Mary -1.5 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
William & Mary survived a big scare yesterday from Hofstra and things were not looking good early or late. The Tribe fell behind big early in the game and then trailed Hofstra by nine points with five minutes remaining and by five points with less than a minute left in regulation but came through with a big double overtime win. Now playing its third game in three days, there could be a fatigue issue but its opponent is on the same boat minus a mere 10 minutes. This is the fourth time in the last eight years William & Mary has been in the CAA Championship and it has yet to break through including a one point loss to Delaware last season. Along with Army, St. Francis (N.Y.), Northwestern and The Citadel, William & Mary is one of five original Division I members to have never made the NCAA Tournament. Northeastern has won three straight after defeating UNC Wilmington on Sunday but the Huskies have not been very dominant. Going back, they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win while the Tribe are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Tribe have been the best team in the conference all season long and that pays off with their NCAA Tournament breakthrough. 10* (874) William & Mary Tribe |
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03-08-15 | Utah Jazz v. Brooklyn Nets -1.5 | Top | 95-88 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
We lost with Brooklyn Friday as the Nets blew a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter and then ended up losing in overtime. It was the second straight loss for them but I believe it may have served as a wakeup call as a team that is fighting for the playoffs has no business losing a game like that as well as getting blown out by Charlotte by 24 points after coming off back-to-back wins against Dallas and Golden St. Speaking of blowouts, the Nets suffered one of their worst losses of the season at Utah back in January as they were thumped by 35 points. Utah has been playing well on this roadtrip and going further back as it is 2-1 on the trek with the lone loss coming by a point and it is 7-3 over its last 10 games, its best 10-game stretch of the season. The Jazz are just 7-17 following a win this season and winning consecutive road games has been a challenge as they are 1-6 this season in road games following a road win in their last game. Brooklyn has covered four of its last five games following a loss and the Nets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (806) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-08-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Detroit Pistons -1 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Detroit is back home following a three-game roadtrip where it lost all three games to add to its losing skid which has now reached five games. The Pistons are now four and a half games back in the Eastern Conference playoff race and this is a big game considering they head back out on the road for a four-game west coast roadtrip starting on Tuesday. Despite being 15 games under .500, they are getting outscored by only 1.5 ppg overall which is also the same scoring differential they have been outscored by at home. They are 7-5 in their last 12 home games with two of those losses coming against Cleveland and another against San Antonio. One team they are chasing is Charlotte which has won four straight games following a 1-6 stretch. The Hornets have been a streaky team all season and while they have done well against the number as underdogs, they have won only half of those games outright and with the low number here, a Detroit win likely means a cover as well. The Pistons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss while the Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. 10* (810) Detroit Pistons |
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03-08-15 | Monmouth v. Iona -2.5 | Top | 77-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Iona was the class of the MAAC this season, winning the regular season championship with a 17-3 record. The Gaels actually lost their first conference game of the season which came at Monmouth and while they got their revenge at home in the second meeting it came by just one point. Those two meetings are a big reason Iona is the play today as it will surely be focused because of what took place during the regular season. The Gaels have not been playing like regular season champions of later as while they have gone 6-1 the last seven games, those six victories were anything but dominating as they all came by four points or less. I think this run brings out the best in them today however. Monmouth had a very solid season at 13-7 within the conference and endured some tough losses along the way. The Hawks also got away with some close wins against teams they should have won against easily as seven of those wins came by five points or less. While they played great against the Gales in both meetings, I don't see it continuing as Iona pulls away and heads to the conference championship on Monday. 10* (838) Iona Gaels |
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03-08-15 | Chicago Bulls +9.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
After struggling throughout the start of their rodeo roadtrip, the Spurs responded with wins in the last two games and have since won their last two games, making it a four-game winning streak which is their first since mid-January. While they have seemed to turn the corner, I'm not as impressed as others may be with this streak as two wins came over 21-40 Sacramento, another over 22-41 Denver and the last coming against Phoenix which is struggling. San Antonio is 15 games over .500 but Chicago is as well and despite two of its stars missing, this is still a very strong team as not many NBA teams could endure the losses. We won with Chicago Thursday as it defeated Oklahoma City but it was clearly in letdown mode the next night as it was destroyed at Indiana by 14 points. That alone will provide enough motivation to keep the Bulls focused here as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss while going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. The Spurs have dropped five straight games against the number against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and on the season they are just 9-18 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (801) Chicago Bulls |
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03-07-15 | Long Beach State v. UC Riverside +2.5 | Top | 59-58 | Win | 100 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
UC Riverside is playing its final home game of the season and it comes in as the underdog as this line is based on name and not ability. The Highlanders are a notoriously bad team while long Beach St. is typically near the top of the Big West Conference but neither of those hold true this season. The 49ers are 9-6 which isn't bad while Riverside is 7-8 which is a pretty decent record for a team that came into the season with extremely low expectations. The home and road splits is what really makes this a strong play as Long Beach is favored despite being 3-13 on the road and overall for both teams, the host is 45-9 in their games combined. This includes a solid 12-2 record for the Highlanders whose only conference loss at home came against regular season champion UC Davis. They will be out for some payback as well as they have lost 11 straight games against the 49ers but this is the closest the two teams have been over that stretch.. this is proven by the fact this is the lowest line of them all. The Highlanders are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record while the 49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against team with a winning home record. 10* (620) UC Riverside Highlanders |
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03-07-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers +10 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The Hawks will find themselves in a very difficult spot tonight as they are laying double-digits on the road following a big win last night against Cleveland, cementing their cause as the best team in the Eastern Conference. That brings in a huge letdown possibility for Saturday which makes covering a big number on the highway will be a difficult task to accomplish. They have been killing it in every aspect of betting this season as Atlanta has the best overall ATS record in the league including the best road ATS record as well but a lot of that came during its historic winning streak as the Hawks are 7-9-1 ATS over their last 17 games as the linesmakers have caught up. The Sixers continue to play hard despite having a starting lineup with names a casual fan would not even recognize. After a couple blowout losses to start the month, Philadelphia took the Thunder to overtime on the road and played a good game against Utah last night and it could have been better if not for Jason Richardson going 0-10 from the field. The Sixers have done very well playing with no rest and on the season, they are 11-4 ATS at home against teams with a winning record including a 9-1 ATS record as a double-digit home underdog. 10* (506) Philadelphia 76ers |
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03-07-15 | Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks OVER 189.5 | Top | 92-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Indiana and New York meet for the second time in four days and while New York will out to seek revenge following a 23-point loss in Indiana, we see some excellent value with the total as the situation is heavily in our favor. The Pacers have played a game in-between the two meetings as they faced the Bulls last night and came away with a big home victory as the defense once again put forth an outstanding effort. The Pacers allowed an average of 81.5 ppg during their four-game homestand, all of which resulted in wins and the under cashing. Now Indiana hits the road where the over has been cashing plenty of tickets, 22 of 31 to be exact, the highest road over percentage in the NBA. Playing with no rest also helps the cause as the defense is unit that gets fatigued. The Knick have been off since that last meeting but even with the rest, the defense will not be any better off as they are allowing 111.4 ppg over their last five games. The offense has been hot and cold but playing a tired Pacers defense will help. New York had gone over in its previous four games before Wednesday and on the other side, the over is 9-4 in the Pacers last 13 games playing on no days rest. 10* Over (507) Indiana Pacers/(508) New York Knicks |
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03-07-15 | San Diego v. Pepperdine +2.5 | Top | 47-50 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Only four teams in the West Coast Conference finished with winning records in the conference, the usually three of Gonzaga, St. Mary's and BYU, with Pepperdine being the fourth team. Surprisingly, they come into the second round of the WCC Tournament as an underdog and we will take advantage of this number. The Waves had somewhat of a streaky conference season with runs of 4-1, 1-3, 3-0, 0-3 and 2-1 and they are coming off a win in their regular season finale. They were solid on the highway this season as well, going 5-4 which included wins at BYU and at St. Mary's. Pepperdine finished in the top half of the conference for the second straight year, and sole possession of fourth place was also the team's best finish since 2004 so we are dealing with a very solid team. San Diego finished the regular season 15-15 including an 8-10 record in the conference. The Toreros also ended the regular season with a win which followed a three-game losing skid. They finished 2-6 against the top four teams in the conference and while that did include a win over Pepperdine, it came after the Waves had just upset BYU so it was a bad spot for the home team. The Toreros are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win while the Waves are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. 10* (660) Pepperdine Waves |
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03-07-15 | Xavier -3 v. Creighton | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
This is an interesting scenario where both of these teams are coming off a loss in their last game, Xavier at home last Saturday and Creighton as home on Tuesday. This could normally lead to a possible play on the Bluejays based on the fact they remain home for their final home game on the season but it was a very tough loss as they hung tough against the Wildcats, only to lose by four points. But there is a lot more at stake on the other side. Xavier is holding on to a No. 10 seed projection in the NCAA Tournament and a loss here could be bad enough to knock them out even though they are not one of the last teams in. Creighton is 4-13 in the Big East so this would be a devastating defeat and with a current RPI of 41, that would surely come down toward on the bubble territory. Making it even worse would be the fact the Musketeers have already lost to Creighton once, going down at home in overtime a month ago. Xavier has not lost three straight games and it won't start now. The Musketeers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games while the Bluejays are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. 10* (549) Xavier Musketeers |
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03-07-15 | St. Joe's v. Rhode Island -11.5 | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
It has been a very solid season for Rhode Island which is 20-8 overall including 12-5 in the Atlantic Ten Conference. The Rams are coming off a blowout loss at Dayton however and now heading into their final home game of the season, I expect a huge effort. They have lost back-to-back games only once this season and in those follow up games, they have gone 6-1 ATS the previous seven defeats. The two home losses came against VCU and Davidson by a combined six points and this game means a lot as a victory guaranteed a top four seed in the upcoming tournament which guarantees a double bye. It has been a disappointing season for the Hawks as they are three games under .500 overall and in the conference. They are coming off a win in their last home game against city rival LaSalle so they are ripe for a letdown. They have won only three road games all season including just one within the conference. Additionally, Rhode Island will be out for some revenge following a one points loss at St. Josephs last month. The Hawks are Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win while the Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (538) Rhode Island Rams |
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03-07-15 | Syracuse v. NC State -5.5 | Top | 57-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
With the sanctions coming down on Syracuse Friday, it looks to be a tough task for the basketball team to play with any focus in their final game of the season. These teams could not be more identical as their overall records and conference records are the same while the home/road splits are nearly even as well. The Orange lost their last home game of the season against Virginia as they built and early lead but failed to hold on and got blown out in the end. The Wolfpack meanwhile are coming off a 2-1 roadtrip with this being their first home game in two weeks. While not projected to make the NCAA Tournament, they could make a run in the conference tournament but a loss here would clearly end any chance. NC State is 13-6 at home and has some tough losses that could have went the other way, losing to Virginia by four, losing to North Carolina by two and losing to Notre Dame by three in overtime. The Wolfpack will clearly be the more focused team on the floor Saturday and going back they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record while the Orange are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (524) NC State Wolfpack |
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03-06-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Brooklyn Nets -2.5 | Top | 108-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Brooklyn has been on the wrong end of some lopsided games this season and one took place last timer out. After upsetting Golden St. on Monday, the Nets laid an egg in their game on Wednesday at home against Charlotte, losing by 24 points. To their credit, they have done a good job for the most part of recovering from these losses and I expect that tonight. The Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 or more points while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. While Phoenix is coming off a win in its last game against Orlando, it has struggled for the most part since the trade deadline, going 3-5. the Suns are still in the hunt in the Western Conference as they are two games behind Oklahoma City for the eighth spot but this is not a good spot or a good number. Brooklyn is 7.5 games better than Orlando yet it is laying a very reasonable number tonight as the spread differential is not big enough. The Suns are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a victory and add to that, the Suns travel to Cleveland tomorrow night in a definite lookahead situation. 10* (810) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-06-15 | Boston Celtics v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 200.5 | Top | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
We played on Boston Wednesday and while that resulted in a push, the low scoring outcome sent the Celtics into their third straight game that has gone under the total. This is definitely a rarity as Boston has not had many long streaks of low scoring games and on the season, this is just the third three-game under run and overall, the Celtics are 7-3 to the over following two or more consecutive unders. Boston is one of only four teams in the NBA that are averaging 100 or more possessions in their games and the lone team from the Eastern Conference to do so. That gives them more opportunities on both ends of the floor. New Orleans is also riding a three-game under streak following four consecutive overs. The offense have been held in check for the most part during this recent run but should get going again against a poor Boston defense. While the Pelicans are not a fast paced team, they are one of only seven teams in the league whose offensive and defensive combined shooting percentages are more than 91 percent. The over is 7-2 in the Celtics last nine games following a win while the over is 17-4 in the Pelicans last 21 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* Over (819) Boston Celtics/(820) New Orleans Pelicans |
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03-06-15 | Miami Heat v. Washington Wizards -4 | Top | 97-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
It has been a recent struggle for Washington but the schedule has not been on its side. The Wizards have dropped seven of their last eight games which has dropped them all the way down to fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings and they are only two games up on Milwaukee for sixth place. Five of the eight games have been on the road, all resulting in losses, and while Washington is just 1-2 at home over this stretch, those losses were against Cleveland and Golden St. Because the Wizards have dropped seven straight games against the number, they are getting a very fair price tonight as they look to build upon their 21-10 home record. The Heat are coming off a Wednesday win over the Lakers, their second straight win but winning three in a row will be a challenge as they have done that only once this season and are 1-6 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS in their previous seven games following consecutive victories. Miami is one of just three teams that has more wins on the road than at home but it is still under .500 and is 9-14 as an underdog. Overall, the Heat are 8-18 straight up and 5-18-3 ATS following a win this season. 10* (818) Washington Wizards |
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03-06-15 | Evansville +4.5 v. Illinois State | Top | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
**3:30 PM ET Start Time** Evansville and Illinois St. have a quick turnaround in their season series as they met just last Saturday in the regular season finale for each with the Redbirds prevailing on the road by a bucket in overtime. It was the second win over the Purple Aces for Illinois St. so it will be out for the sweep which is always a difficult task. Those victories were the difference in the conference records that were two games apart so these teams are very equal although the line may not be telling us that. Based on the line from last Saturday and the first meeting, switching to a neutral floor should make Illinois St. a 2.5-point favorite so we are catching an extra bucket of value and in conference tournament games, that can be huge. The Purple Aces come in on a three-game losing streak but the other two losses came against Wichita St. and Northern Iowa so it is a skewed streak as is the four-game winning streak the Redbird possess as their other three wins all came against losing teams. Three of the last four meetings in this series have gone into overtime while the underdog has covered five of the last six meetings and we take advantage of the inflated line today. 10* (849) Evansville Purple Aces |
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03-05-15 | VCU +4 v. Davidson | Top | 55-82 | Loss | -122 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
The scenario is pretty simple for VCU. If it loses tonight, it is very likely going to be the No. 5 seed in the upcoming Atlantic Ten Tournament. Even with a win Saturday against George Mason, it would be tied with Richmond (which will likely beat St. Louis at home) but will lose the tiebreaker because of getting swept by the Spiders. Winning in Davidson will not be easy but this is the one team that can do it. The Wildcats have won and covered seven straight games but the schedule has not been overly difficult as they defeated 9-8 George Washington twice and 12-5 Rhode Island by a point over this stretch as being the only tough games. Davidson has lost only once at home in that last second defeat against St. Bonaventure and it will be out for revenge after a six-point loss at YCU early in the season. While VCU has stumbled down the stretch with a 3-4 record, two losses were in overtime, another was a last second loss to the Bonnies and most recent, a four-point loss to conference leader Dayton. This game has the makings of a last possession type of game so grabbing the points is ideal with the Rams having every chance of taking this one outright. 10* (539) VCU Rams |
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03-05-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Chicago Bulls +3 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
The Bulls complete their seven-game homestand tonight as they host Oklahoma City in looking to finish 5-2 after winning four of the first six games. Chicago has won eight of its last 11 games overall but still comes in as the underdog here despite the Thunder missing their best player. This is due to the fact that Chicago is missing two of its best players but as mentioned in the most recent writeup on Tuesday, there is still a lot of talent on this team to make up for it. The Bulls have been home underdogs four times since January 22nd and have won three of those outright. The Thunder were hoping for a breather last night against the Sixers but they got much more than that as Philadelphia gave them all they had, eventually losing in overtime. Oklahoma City has had its share of struggles on the road this season but to its credit, a lot of that was early on when both stars were out. However, they were underdogs most of the time anyway and as road favorites, they are just 7-9 ATS and they are 5-11 ATS this season on the road against winning teams. Chicago will be out to break a five-game losing skid against the Thunder and as a result, add to its 8-3 ATS run against teams with a winning record. 10* (502) Chicago Bulls |
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03-05-15 | Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 88-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Following four straight losses, Western Kentucky got back on track last week with a pair of wins and while they were against lower conference teams, the victories were huge for conference seeding and arguably more importantly, confidence. The Hilltoppers lost those four games by a combined 16 points so it was a frustrating run but the recent bounce back has them at 11-5 in C-USA which is good for a third place tie with Old Dominion and UTEP. One of these teams will drop to fifth place which isn't the worse scenario but it does mean playing an extra game in the C-USA Tournament. While the other aforementioned teams will most likely win tonight, a Hilltoppers win is imperative as it travels to Old Dominion on Saturday. Charlotte has had a very disappointing season as it is three-games under .500 overall and four games under .400 in the conference. The 49ers have struggled against the top teams, going 0-6 against the top five teams in the conference. They played Louisiana Tech tough in an overtime loss in their second to last home game but they were 4.5-point underdogs there and now are the complete opposite and that should not be a nine-point swing against a team that is just 2.5 games worse than the Bulldogs. 10* (511) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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03-04-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +13.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Milwaukee has dropped its first three games of this four-game roadtrip including two losses as a favorite, most recently last night in Denver. I think that ended up being a tougher spot than expected when the Nuggets fired head coach Brian Shaw and the players seemed to have gotten a jolt from that, snapping their six-game losing streak. The Bucks remain in sixth place in the Eastern Conference and are just a game and half behind Washington for fifth place so these losses have been big and while not many will be giving them a chance tonight, this line is inflated. The Warriors are back home following a 3-3 roadtrip and this is just their second home game after playing 10 of their last 11 games on the highway. Golden St. has the best home record in the NBA at 24-2 but it is paying for it with a double-digit spread now more often than not. The Bucks have been very competitive when getting doubles as they are 4-1 ATS, covering against the Cavaliers, Clippers, Blazers and Spurs. Even though this roadtrip has been unkind, Milwaukee is 19-7 ATS following a loss, winning 17 of those outright. Surprisingly, the Warriors are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (725) Milwaukee Bucks |
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03-04-15 | Utah State v. Wyoming -5 | Top | 53-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
There is a logjam in the Mountain West Conference as two games separate first and fifth place showing how tight it has become. Wyoming ruined a chance to stay near the top with a pair of losses last week including an inexplicable home loss against Fresno St., just its second home loss of the season. The Cowboys are 2-4 over their last six games but four of those games have been on the road where they are just 5-6 compared to 16-2 at home. Utah St. is rolling right now with six straight wins and even more impressive, six straight covers. Winning is tough anywhere so taking nothing away from the Aggies but five of those victories have come against losing teams and none of the wins came against the other four teams that are in the top five in the conference so this is their biggest test in over a month. Expect the Cowboys to be extra ready as they will be out to avenge a 12-point loss earlier in the season in Logan and the Aggies have not won at Wyoming since 1962. Senior Night is big in a lot of places for tonight in Laramie it will be extra special as five seniors that turned this program around will be honored. 10* (758) Wyoming Cowboys |
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03-04-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Miami Heat UNDER 199 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Over half of Wednesday's NBA games were off the board until late morning with this being one of those. Goran Dragic is questionable for Miami tonight with a back injury while Nick young is questionable for Los Angeles as he continues to nurse a knee injury and he will likely be out. Despite his absence over the last four games, the Lakers have gone over the total extending their streak to six games of surpassing the total. Four of these games have been at home however and the road has much more of a place where lower scoring games have occurred as prior to the most recent two, the Lakers were 11-2-1 to the under in their previous 14 games on the highway. Miami went over the total in its last game as it put up 115 points against Phoenix but it has been rare for the Heat to put together consecutive strong offensive games as after scoring 100 or more points, they have failed to reach the century mark in the next game 10 straight times, averaging just 88 ppg. Going back, the under is 14-4 in the Heat's last 18 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the under is 4-0 in the Lakers last four games playing on 0 days rest. 10* Under (715) Los Angeles Lakers/(716) Miami Heat |
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03-04-15 | Utah Jazz v. Boston Celtics -1 | Top | 84-85 | Push | 0 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
We played against Utah last night which ended up being a horrible call as the Jazz went into Memphis, second in the Western Conference, won by 11 points and covering by 18. It was their third straight win and going back, their seventh win over their last nine games. While Utah has been playing over its head right now, I expect a letdown tonight following last night's victory and it is heading to Boston at the wrong time. Boston is coming off a shellacking in Cleveland last night as it lost by 31 points in a game it trailed by as many as 44 points. Prior to last night, the Celtics were playing well also as they had won seven of their last 11 games, while going 9-2 ATS which shows even higher competitiveness. After a 2-8 start at home, Boston is 12-8 over its last home games and has covered six straight. Utah is 1-5 this season in six road games that immediately followed a road win, not necessarily playing with no rest. Which brings up another scenario as the Jazz are 2-4 straight up and ATS in the second of back-to-back road games with no rest. Boston meanwhile is 8-2-1 ATS with no rest this season. 10* (706) Boston Celtics |
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03-04-15 | Richmond v. Massachusetts +1 | Top | 56-53 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Richmond has made a run up the Atlantic Ten standings as it has won four straight to move to 10-6 in the conference which puts the Spiders in a fifth place tie with tonight's opponent. Two of those wins were surprisingly on the road where Richmond had gone 1-5 in its first six road conference games and overall it is just 3-9 on the highway. The Spiders have been road favorites three other times this season and they have lost two of those outright. In Richmond's last road game on Saturday, it was favored by 2.5 points at 6-10 St. Joe's and now it is favored by a fraction less against 10-6 Massachusetts. The Minutemen should be able to use their home court edge here to keep them in the hunt for the fourth seed in the upcoming Atlantic Ten Tournament even though the chances are slim as all VCU has to do is win Saturday at home against George Mason. Massachusetts is 10-3 at the Mullins Center and tonight is Senior Night and the Minutemen will honor seniors Maxie Esho and Cady Lalanne, the top two leading scorers. Massachusetts is 23-9 at home in the conference the last four years and the Minutemen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record. 10* (744) Massachusetts Minutemen |
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03-03-15 | Utah Jazz v. Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 93-82 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Memphis is the top consensus play in the NBA tonight but the public isn't always wrong as I feel the Grizzlies deserve the nod and are in a great spot to do some damage. They are coming off a win at Minnesota on Saturday but it was far from a good effort as they won by just four points after blowing a 15-point lead. That came right after getting blown out at home against the Clippers the previous night which was just their sixth home ,loss of the season so Memphis will be out to make up for that mess. The Grizzlies have failed to cover three straight games which triggers the play on value. Utah continues to play solid basketball as it has won two straight, four of five and six of its last eight games while going 6-1-1 over that stretch. The last time the Jazz lost by double-digits happened to come against Memphis ten games back which also shows us why we have that value tonight. Utah was getting 6.5 points art home and now is getting only one more point on the road where there should be an eight-point swing based on venue change. We will take advantage of that tonight. 10* (508) Memphis Grizzlies |
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03-03-15 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls OVER 185.5 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This number was released late due the injuries on the Chicago side but we already knew the status of the players involved so withholding it made no sense. The Bulls are without a lot of offense and its recent history is giving us a lot of value with the over tonight. Chicago has stayed under the total in four straight games and only one of those even came close to the posted number as the offense has struggled while the defense has held its own. This is the first game that Jimmy Butler will not start since being diagnosed with a sprained elbow and while his offense will be missed, so will his defense and there is plenty around to make up for his missing offense. Washington meanwhile has gone under the total in three straight games but the offense has been more productive going forward. Overall, the Wizards are averaging 98.7 ppg on 46.6 percent shooting, the latter being tied for third best in the NBA. The over is 7-1 in the Wizards last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. I expect their offense to continue to improve while the Bulls will find a way to fill the pieces and send this one over. 10* Over (509) Washington Wizards/(510) Chicago Bulls |
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03-03-15 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +5.5 | Top | 81-49 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is the final game of the season for Georgia Tech as there will be no postseason of any kind for the Yellow Jackets that are 12-17 overall including 3-14 in the ACC. This is a great opportunity to end the season on a high note however as the Yellow Jackets will be out close their disappointing campaign with a victory. While looking at their 7-7 record at home shows a pretty average result, it had the chance to be so much better. Georgia is 2-6 in home conference games with those losses coming by a total of only 12 points. Only one of those came against a losing team while three were against teams heading into the NCAA Tournament. Motivation will be in play as well as the Yellow Jackets would like nothing more than to avenge a 29-point loss in North Carolina 10 days ago. It has an up and down few weeks for the Tar Heels as they are 3-5 their last eight games and they have not won consecutive games since late January. They are coming off a win at Miami Saturday and there is no doubt they are looking ahead to Duke in their home game of the season on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (516) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
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03-03-15 | Iowa v. Indiana -2 | Top | 77-63 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Indiana has alternated wins and losses over its last nine games and its NCAA Tournament stock has dropped because of it as it has fallen to a potential No. 10 seed. The Hoosiers have the ability to raise that stock this week as they close out the season against Iowa and Michigan St., two quality opponents which could be two major wins. Indiana has to worry first about the Hawkeyes as it looks to bounce back from a loss at Northwestern last week and also looks to bounce back from its first home conference loss of the season against Purdue 12 days ago. Home victories against SMU, Ohio St. and Maryland shows the Hoosiers can in fact close out the season with a pair of home wins. Iowa brings in a four-game winning streak but all of those wins were against teams not projected into the NCAA Tournament and three were against the three worst teams in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes are 5-3 in their eight road conference games, 1-2 against tournament teams and 4-1 against non-tournament teams. The Hawkeyes are in the run for a first round bye in the upcoming Big Ten Tournament so this is a big game to keep the streak alive but there is too much going against them here including the fact the Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (522) Indiana Hoosiers |
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03-02-15 | Montreal Canadiens v. San Jose Sharks +102 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 102 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
After going both winless at home and 3-8-2 overall in February, San Jose finds itself outside the playoffs, trailing Minnesota by five points for the second Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. The Sharks have dropped all three games on this current homestand and going back, they have dropped seven straight games at home not counting the game at Levi's Stadium where they were designated the home team against the Kings. Sharks coach Todd McLellan agreed to a request let for a players-only session away from the rink rather than the scheduled practice on Sunday which is always a good sign for a team that is reeling. Montreal meanwhile has won four in a row as it continues to hold down the top spot in the Eastern Conference, three points ahead of the Islanders. Goalie Carey Price has been incredible away from home as he has a 1.18 GAA and .956 save percentage during a 9-0-1 stretch which is another main reason the Canadiens are road favorites but I think the run ends against a desperate Sharks teams. Despite recent struggles, going back the Sharks are 39-13 in their last 52 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (56) San Jose Sharks |
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03-02-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Brooklyn Nets +6 | Top | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Golden St. finishes up its roadtrip tonight in Brooklyn and also brings an end to a brutal stretch of games that goes back to early February. This is the end of the recent six-game roadtrip while also closing out a stretch of 10 of the last 11 games being on the road so the Warriors wanting to head home is an understatement as 10 of the next 12 games are at Oracle Arena. This is also the fourth game in five nights following an improbable comeback against Boston last night where Golden St. overcame a 26-point deficit to pull off the victory. It is the just the opposite for the Nets as they return home following a rugged eight-game roadtrip. They finished 3-5 but did come away with a much needed win over Dallas in the finale which kept them in a tie for eighth place in the Eastern Conference. 10 of their last 13 games have been on the road and while the home floor has been below average this season, Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a lengthy roadtrip of seven or more days while going 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Warriors meanwhile are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (706) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-02-15 | Baylor v. Texas -2.5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
Despite an average looking 17-12 record which includes a poor 6-10 record in the conference, Texas is still not out of the NCAA Tournament talk. The Longhorns possess an RPI of 47 which is right around where bubble teams tend to fall but closing out the season with a pair of wins and then a decent run through the Big XII Tournament couple propel them into the Big Dance. Texas has lost four straight games but three of those were on the road and the lone home loss against Iowa St. was a fluky one where it was outscored 21-10 at the free throw line. Additionally, Texas will be out for some major payback following a 23-point loss at Baylor back in January. The Bears are on a roll with four straight wins including a pair of quality victories over Iowa St. and West Virginia the last two games to remain in a tie for third place in the conference. This is the final road game for the Bears which are 6-4 on the highway with their final home game upcoming on Friday. While this one is big for both sides, Texas obviously needs it more and the home floor will be the difference tonight. 10* (714) Texas Longhorns |
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03-01-15 | St Louis Blues v. Vancouver Canucks +100 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Vancouver returns home following a lengthy but successful roadtrip where it went 3-2 but on the flip side, it was disappointing in the fact that the two losses came against New Jersey and Buffalo, two very winnable games. The loss against the Sabres came on Thursday to end the trek so we can expect the Canucks to bounce back at home where they have won four of their last five games and going back, they are 7-1 in their last eight games when playing with two or more days rest. St. Louis is coming off a win last night in Edmonton, its second straight win to open this roadtrip but this is now the toughest game of the bunch. The Blues have a four-game road winning streak but this is not a friendly place as they have lost three straight and the goalie situation is in our favor. Brian Elliott would be making his first start of the season with no rest should he go while Jake Allen is coming off a horrible performance in his last start in backing up Elliott and on the road, he has a very average 2.63 GAA. 10* (12) Vancouver Canucks |
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03-01-15 | Arizona State v. Colorado -1.5 | Top | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Arizona St. and Colorado were thumped by Utah and Arizona respectively on Thursday and each will look to bounce back from those poor efforts. I expect the Buffaloes to be the team that gets it done here. They have dropped three straight games starting off with getting swept in Oregon last week and while they did lose at home against the Wildcats, they are 10-5 at home and going back since joining the Pac 12 Conference, they are 26-9 at home against conference foes. The Buffaloes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. Arizona St. had a three-game winning streak snapped against Utah with two of those wins coming at home and overall on the season, the host is 21-5 in Sun Devils games. This includes them going just 2-8 on the road this season and the level of opposition has not mattered as the Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. Colorado gets it done in its final home game of the season. 10* (834) Colorado Buffaloes |
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03-01-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Houston Rockets OVER 207.5 | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the injury report on the Cleveland side but there are no questionable statuses for key players. We played the Cavaliers/Pacers over on Friday but we got dealt some unfortunate luck as both LeBron James and Kyrie Irvine were late scratches and while Irvine will not play here, James is back. The offense managed only 86 points without them which broke a four-game streak of scoring at least 100 points. While the defense did hold Indiana to 93 points, the Cavaliers are allowing 100 ppg on the road on 46.2 percent shooting, the latter being the fourth highest in the NBA. While Cleveland has gone under the total in four straight games, Houston has stayed below the number in its last two games and five of its last six. The offense has done its part though on this homestand, averaging 105.8 ppg through the first four games and I expect the success to continue. The first meeting this season stayed under the total but that was by just a half-point and going back, the over is 5-2 in the Cavaliers last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while the over is 8-3 in the Rockets last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Over (813) Cleveland Cavaliers/(814) Houston Rockets |
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02-28-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Milwaukee is getting three points in a game that arguably should be a pickem based on power ratings and the last meeting. The Bucks were upset at home as an eight-point favorite by the Jazz last month and now they hit the road with a swing of 11 points since that meeting which is too much of an adjustment. Milwaukee is coming off a loss last night in Los Angeles against the Lakers and while the bounceback aspect is a strong one, the fact that the Bucks were favored by 6.5 points against a team that is just six game worse shows additional line value with the line differential here. Utah is definitely playing well as it has won five of its last seven games including a victory last night in Denver by 22 points. The Jazz have been terrible in following wins up this season however as they have won just five times in their 21 games following a victory and they are catching Milwaukee at a very bad time. The fact that Milwaukee has not covered here in 12 years seals the deal. 10* (511) Milwaukee Bucks |
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02-28-15 | Arizona v. Utah -1.5 | Top | 63-57 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
While there are still three games left for both Arizona and Utah in the Pac 12, this game will play a huge part in who wins the conference. The Utes are 12-3 with all three losses coming on the road by double-digits. The biggest loss came at Arizona last month as they fell by 18 points to the Wildcats which is also their largest loss of the entire season. Utah is a perfect 16-0 at home and it has been destroying the opposition, winning those games by an average of 25.4 ppg. While Arizona will be the biggest test of the bunch, I expect the Utes to finish the season undefeated at home and get their payback. Arizona had no problems with Colorado on Thursday which was its fifth straight win, all coming by double-digits and by an average of 23.8 ppg. The Wildcats certainly have the ability to hand the Utes their first home loss but they have not been great against the better teams with a win over Oregon being the lone quality rout. Arizona has never lost here but this is the best Utah is will face in Salt Lake City. 10* (684) Utah Utes |
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02-28-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 193 | Top | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
We played the Grizzlies/Clippers over last night and a 33-point first quarter pretty much killed that call. Memphis ended up with just 79 points as it shot a mere 37.9 percent from the floor including 25 percent from long range but I expect a huge turnaround tonight. The Grizzlies have gone under the total in eight straight games which is affecting the number tonight not mention the fact that it is five points less than the total posted in the last meeting in Memphis three weeks ago. The Timberwolves are coming off a loss last night in Chicago as they were held to just 89 points but they were held to just 77 shot attempts and with both teams coming off a game last night, I expect the offense to be able to muster more. Minnesota has gone under in two straight games which is an anomaly from the defense that has allowed only 173 points combined in those two games. Overall, the Timberwolves are allowing 105.6 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting on the season, both of which are worst in the NBA. 10* Over (507) Memphis Grizzlies/(508) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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02-28-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Washington Wizards -3.5 | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a great spot and a great number for Washington which is in its worst losing skid of the season that reached six games last night following a loss in Philadelphia. While the Wizards have lost to some poor teams over this stretch, Philadelphia includes along with Minnesota and Detroit, it has also lost to arguably the top two teams in the NBA in Golden St. and Cleveland and both of those were at home. That loss against the Pistons means payback time and that game was just six days ago with the Wizards favored by two points on the road and now they are favored by not much more than that here at home. The Pistons are coming off an embarrassing loss last night as well as they lost against the woeful Knicks and while that normally could trigger a play on situation here, the fact that this is Detroit's first road game in 18 days negates that. While the fact Detroit has improved and is making a playoff run cannot be ignored, neither can the fact that it is 1-5 in its last six road games. 10* (502) Washington Wizards |
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02-28-15 | Florida Atlantic v. Marshall -5.5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
Marshall is struggling this season with a 10-18 record overall including 6-9 in C-USA. The Thundering Herd have been playing better however as they have won six of their last nine games with all three of those losses coming on the road against winning teams. They won last time out against Florida International on Thursday by 18 points and they will be out to keep that going here and try to inch up closer to seventh place in the conference. It won't be easy next week with two road games at Old Dominion and Charlotte so it cannot look past this one. Despite being just 1-14 in the conference, it is doubtful that Marshall would look past the Owls as the Thundering Herd are the only team to lose to Florida Atlantic. Since that victory, the Owls have lost 10 straight games and some have been competitive, only one those was decided by less than what the line is here. They have won just two road games, at Jacksonville and at Central Florida, and they are getting outscored by 12.2 ppg in conference road games. 10* (626) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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02-28-15 | Villanova v. Xavier +3.5 | Top | 78-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
Xavier is one of six teams from the Big East that will be going to the NCAA Tournament as it is projected as a No. 7 seed right now. The Musketeers are 8-8 in the conference which includes a 2-6 record on the road and an opposite 6-2 record at home. Two losses by a combined four points and another two losses in overtime turned what could have been a fantastic season into an average one. But this is a dangerous team and Xavier would like nothing more to take out Villanova in its last home game this season following a 13-point loss at the Wildcats earlier this season. Villanova is on a roll right now with nine consecutive wins and nine consecutive covers. This includes four road wins but two were against 3-12 Marquette and 6-10 DePaul while wins over Butler and Providence were by a combined nine points. Because of the recent dominance we are getting a great number with Xavier as it is a home underdog for the first time this season. 10* (544) Xavier Musketeers |
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02-28-15 | Illinois State v. Evansville +1 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
Evansville wraps up its regular season at home on Saturday against Illinois St. and there is a lot on the line for both sides. The Purple Aces are 9-8 in the Missouri Valley Conference which right now is good for fifth place but a win pushes them into a tie for fourth place and while neither scenario improves its tournament placement or advantage, the goal is to get to 20 wins. Evansville would have 20 wins in the regular season for the first time since the 1998-99 campaign. Illinois St. is tied for third in the conference and it cannot move up but winning the third seed is the goal as it would play a losing team in the second round of the tournament. The Redbirds are 4-4 in road conference games but all four of those wins came against four teams with a losing record. The Purple Aces are coming off a brutal two-game roadtrip at Northern Iowa and Wichita St., both of which are 16-1 so they will be out to make up for that as well to avenge a 26-point loss at Illinois St. earlier this month. 10* (552) Evansville Purple Aces |
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02-28-15 | Georgetown v. St. John's | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
A recent slump hurt St. John's but it has played itself back into the NCAA Tournament thanks to a 5-1 run over its last six games. The lone defeat came at the hands of Georgetown by 22 points so the Red Storm need some retribution to keep hold of their spot inside the bubble. They have a winnable game at Marquette after this but then have to travel to Villanova in the regular season finale to going down on Saturday would likely mean a .500 record in the Big East which guarantees nothing. The Hoyas are in much better shape at 10-5 in the conference following three straight victories. They are coming off a two-game homestand to move to 12-3 but while a 4-3 road record may not look that bad, all four wins were against teams not going to the NCAA Tournament while the three losses were against teams that are going. The Hoyas have won just one of five games as an underdog this season including 0-3 on the road while St. John's has won 12 of 13 home games when favored. 10* (526) St. John's Red Storm |
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02-27-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 198 | Top | 97-79 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The Clippers and Grizzlies met just four days ago and played a low scoring game that finished with just 177 points. That was the seventh straight under for Memphis while it was the second straight under for Los Angeles and all of this put together is giving us some great value on the over tonight as the total is four points or more less that what it was in that previous meeting. While these aren't two of the fastest teams in the NBA as far as pace goes, they make up for it in efficiency with the Clippers being number one and the Grizzlies number nine. This is a rare number for Los Angeles as this is the first time it has seen a total of less than 200 in close to a month, a span of 11 games. Memphis has seen more lower totals for sure and it has taken advantage by eclipsing the number more often than not when the total is below 200. we can call that last meeting an anomaly as in the eight previous meetings, at least one team has scored 100 points and I expect both to do it tonight. 10* Over (813) Los Angeles Clippers/(814) Memphis Grizzlies |
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02-27-15 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Chicago Bulls -6 | Top | 89-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The loss of Derrick Rose is obviously a tough blow for Chicago but this is a very talented team still that can make up for that loss and move forward. Many are saying they are done because of Rose being gone and while he is a special player, his numbers are way down from what they used to be and now everyone can get back to work on a playoff run. The Bulls were routed by Charlotte at home in their first game without Rose as they were emotionally out of it but now is the time we can expect them to pull together. Minnesota meanwhile is playing its second game with Kevin Garnett with the first one being a very emotional one in Minnesota in his return to the team. I expect an opposite effect tonight in a huge letdown possibility and the Timberwolves are just 5-22 on the road. They have won just two of 10 games this season following a win and we are getting an exceptional line because of the Rose injury. Chicago has been favored by 7, 7 and 8 points the last three games and are favored by less against a team that is at least 10 games worse than all of those other three teams. 10* (820) Chicago Bulls |
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02-27-15 | Chicago Blackhawks v. Tampa Bay Lightning -135 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Chicago is coming off a home-and-home sweep of Florida on Tuesday and Thursday and it concludes its short two-game roadtrip tonight in Tampa Bay. The Blackhawks had dropped three straight prior to this week and this will be the first time they have p[layed back-to-back road games since the end of January. They are 1-3 this season in the second of back-to-back games playing with no rest and coming off a win. Chicago is 18-12 on the road which is very solid but it has dropped four of its last five games in Tampa Bay. The Lightning are back home following a five-game roadtrip where they went 3-2 but closed it out with a loss in Colorado on Sunday. The extra time off is a big bonus here as Tampa Bay looks to improve upon its 22-7 home record. Having Ben Bishop in net at home could be just what the Lightning need to conclude the month in positive fashion. He's 20-5-1 with a 2.16 GAA at Amalie Arena this season. The Lightning are 5-1 in their last six games playing on three or more days rest while the Blackhawks are 3-7 in their last 10 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. 9* (8) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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02-26-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Phoenix Suns +5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Phoenix picked up a much needed victory last night as it defeated Denver on the road, snapping a five-game losing streak. Tonight's game is even bigger however as the Suns trail Oklahoma City by 2.5 games for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference so this is a big swing contest. Phoenix moved back to two games over .500 with the victory and tonight marks only the third time that the Suns have been a home underdog, the last resulting in a one-point loss to Memphis, and this is the biggest spread of them all. Part of that is due to Oklahoma City being on a roll with seven straight wins and seven straight covers. The last three have come without Kevin Durant and while the Thunder have done well without him, those wins were against the Pacers, Nuggets and Hornets which are collectively 37 games under .500. In its 30 road games, Oklahoma City has played 15 games against teams with a winning record and is just 3-12 in those games. Going back, the Thunder are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Suns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (504) Phoenix Suns |
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02-26-15 | UC-Davis v. UC-Santa Barbara -5 | Top | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The Gauchos return home following a three-game roadtrip and they pretty much control their own destiny in obtaining a top four finish in the Big West Conference. They are looking for a bye and tonight presents a great opportunity for a quality win. The return of 2014 Big West Player of the Year Alan Williams is huge for Cal-Santa Barbara as it looks to make a late season push and make it through the Big West Tournament as an underdog. After missing over a month, Williams has been back for the last two games in which the Gauchos have split and if he qualified, he would be the third leading scorer and the top rebounder in the conference but he does not have the minimum games allotment. The Gauchos are 9-2 at home this season and are 19-5 at the Thunderdome the last two seasons. UC-Davis is rolling through the conference at 11-1 including seven straight wins but now comes a real test. The Aggies were able to win the first meeting this season but that was the first game Williams was out and the Gauchos will be out for some payback on their home floor. 10* (558) Cal-Santa Barbara Gauchos |
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02-26-15 | Montreal Canadiens v. Columbus Blue Jackets +129 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Montreal is obviously having an outstanding season as it remains on top in the Eastern Conference with 83 points, one point ahead of the Islanders. While the Canadiens want ot remain there and are clearly the better team in this matchup, they are getting a little too much credit here. They have been road favorites of a bigger moneyline only twice this season and those were games at Buffalo which resulted in a loss and a shootout win. They are off a win at St. Louis which could spell letdown and even though the Maple Leafs are having a tough season, a lookahead to rival Toronto is always there. Columbus was expected to make some noise this year but a rash of injuries early in the season put the Blue Jackets into a tailspin they have been unable to recover from. They are on a three-game slide that started with a loss in Montreal so they are eager for some immediate payback. While home ice has not been great this season, Columbus has won nine of its last 17 here including four of its last five with Curtis McElhinney in net who has posted a solid 2.60 GAA over that stretch. 10* (52) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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02-25-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 194.5 | Top | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The Spurs are coming off a dismal offensive performance at Utah on Monday as they scored just 81 points on 40.5 percent shooting including going only 5-19 from long range. San Antonio has been held to 85 points or fewer on four other occasions this season and is has come back with much better efficiency in its next game, averaging 101 ppg. The Spurs have gone under the total in two straight games and six of their last seven which is keeping this number down lower than it should be. Portland meanwhile has stayed below the number in its last three games but two of those games were against Utah and Memphis, two of the seven slowest teams in the NBA averaging 93.6 and 96.6 possessions per game respectively. The offense will get a big boost with LaMarcus Aldridge back in the lineup after missing the last game. The over is 6-2 in the Spurs last eight games against teams with a winning record while the over is also 6-2 in the Blazers last eight games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (723) San Antonio Spurs/(724) Portland Trailblazers |
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02-25-15 | Pittsburgh Penguins +111 v. Washington Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 111 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
After eight straight wins in this series, Pittsburgh has lost the first three meetings this season against Washington and will be out to avoid the four-game season sweep tonight. This game comes at a great time for the Penguins for a few different reasons. After three straight games where they scored just one goal in each, they have tallied nine goals during their two-game winning streak and that offensive production is key here. Pittsburgh has been outscored 10-1 by Washington in the first three games so offense has been the issue and with those issues now reversed, the production should rise tonight. Additionally, Pittsburgh doesn't play again until Sunday after tonight and since being off since this past Sunday, it be full speed ahead tonight. The Capitals had their four-game winning streak snapped at Philadelphia on Sunday which dropped them back into the first Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. While they could leapfrog Pittsburgh once again here with a victory, there is too much going against them here. Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has gone 4-2-1 with a 1.00 GAA and two shutouts in his last seven starts. 10* (3) Pittsburgh Penguins |
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02-25-15 | Miami Heat v. Orlando Magic UNDER 198.5 | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
After opening the season by staying under the total in 32 of its first 50 games, Miami has played five straight games with the over coming in. The total tonight has been adjusted because of it as the Heat are seeing their biggest total in over a month, a span of 15 games. They put up 119 points last time out against the Sixers which is by far a season high and this was just the 15th times they have scored 100 or more points since early November. They followed that up with another 100-point performance only once while averaging a mere 85.5 ppg in those 14 games next time out. Orlando is coming off an over as well which coincidentally also came against the Sixers. That snapped a stretch of five straight unders with the offense going over 100 points only once and that took overtime to do so. The under is 12-4 in the Heat's last 16 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 11-5 in the Magic's last 16 games following a win. 10* Under (701) Miami Heat/(702) Orlando Magic |
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02-25-15 | St. Joe's v. Massachusetts -7 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Massachusetts returns home following consecutive road losses at VCU and Rhode Island, the two teams leading the Atlantic Ten Conference with 11-3 records. While the likelihood of catching those teams is now pretty slim, there is still plenty to play for as the Minutemen are now a game out of fourth place and the coveted bye spot in the upcoming conference tournament. Massachusetts is 9-3 at home this season but it has won four in a row and adding fuel to the fire, it will be out for revenge following a loss in Philadelphia a month ago. The Hawks have had a tough season with the last game being a perfect example as they lost by 10 points in overtime against St. Bonaventure. That was their third straight loss and hitting the road is not a good way to break that as they have dropped all eight conference road games this season and while a number of those have been close, they are traveling into a horrible spot tonight. The home team has won and covered the last nine matchups in this series and the Minutemen are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. 10* (726) Massachusetts Minutemen |
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02-25-15 | VCU -2 v. Richmond | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
VCU shook off a pair of losses against St. Bonaventure and LaSalle by winning its last three games and with Rhode Island right on its heels, each game has more meaning. The Rams enter tonight having won eight of their past nine conference road games dating back to last season with the lone defeat being that last second shocker against the Bonnies. Five of their six conference road wins this season have come by more than what they are favored by tonight and this becomes an ever bigger must win with games against Dayton and Davidson, both 10-4, on deck. Richmond has been the epitome of a streaky ATS team as it gone through stretchers of eight straight losses, seven straight wins, four straight losses and now currently two straight wins. The Spiders are 6-1 at home in the Atlantic Ten but this is by far the biggest test. VCU has been capitalizing on their opponents' turnovers, averaging 21.3 ppg off turnovers over the past three games and three times in the past six games, the Rams have scored over 20 points off turnovers. Richmond has won just two of nine games this season as an underdog while the Rams will be out to avenge a nine-point home loss against the Spiders last month. 10* (747) VCU Rams |
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02-24-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Detroit Pistons OVER 203.5 | Top | 102-93 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Cleveland had gone over the total in five straight games prior to Sunday as it stayed below the number against the Knicks. Now the Cavaliers close out their four-game roadtrip in Detroit with another great opportunity for a high scoring game. The Cleveland offense is playing at a high level right now as it is averaging 108.6 ppg since suffering a six-game losing streak in mid-January, a span of 18 games. In those games, the Cavaliers failed to hit the century mark only four times but still managed 97, 98 and 99 points twice. The Pistons won't be considered to have the most efficient offense in the league but since scoring a mere 69 points against the Sixers to end January, they are averaging 103.2 ppg in February over nine games. They are 3-0-1 to the under over their last four games which is keeping this total lower than it should be. The over is 5-2 in the Pistons last seven home games against teams with a winning road record while the over is 5-1 in Cleveland's last six games overall. 10* Over (503) Cleveland Cavaliers/(504) Detroit Pistons |
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02-24-15 | Philadelphia Flyers v. Carolina Hurricanes -119 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
It has been an up and down season for the Flyers all season which can be summed in over their last four games. They lost consecutive home games against Columbus and Buffalo as favorites but then came back to defeat Nashville and Washington as home underdogs. Philadelphia now hits the road for the first time since February 15th and the highway has created its share of problems as the Flyers are 9-21 on the road this season. Playing the below average teams has mattered little as the Flyers are 2-9 in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record. Carolina has had its share of road issues as well and while it is far from dominant at home, it is 12-14 overall and is now playing just its fourth home game since the end of January. Four of the Hurricanes last five home games have been against Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Anaheim and the Islanders which are four of the six teams in the NHL that have at least 80 points. They have fared well against the lesser teams, going 9-1 in their last 10 games against losing teams while going a perfect 7-0 in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (60) Carolina Hurricanes |
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02-24-15 | Wisconsin v. Maryland +6 | Top | 53-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
A win tonight by Wisconsin will clinch no worse than a tie for the regular season Big Ten title with three games remaining while a Maryland win will keep its hopes, along with those of Michigan St. and Purdue, alive for at least two more games. The Badgers have flown through the conference with a 13-1 record, the lone defeat coming at Rutgers of all places but they were playing without Frank Kaminsky in that game. While they have been winning, the lines continue to be inflated as they are just 5-8-1 against the number. Being favored by eight points at Nebraska two weeks ago and being favored by just two points less here against a team that is 5.5 games better proves that. The Terrapins are three games back and at 16-1 at home this season, an outright upset is far from out of the question. With its 20th win coming on February 11th, it is the first time Maryland has racked up 20 wins before February 15 since the 2001-02 season, when it captured the national championship so this team is no pushover. Additionally, Maryland is 8-0 in games decided by six points or less. 10* (514) Maryland Terrapins |
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02-23-15 | San Antonio Spurs -5.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 81-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Typically we are not an advocate of road chalk but when the situation calls for it, we will jump on it. The Spurs have come out of the break with a pair of losses at Golden St. and Los Angeles but this is a chance to get right before having to travel to face another tough opponent at Portland on Tuesday. We are getting some serious line value here as the fact that four days ago, the Spurs were favored by 2.5 points at the Clippers and now are favored by just three points more against a team that is 16 games worse. Utah won its lone game after the All Star break as it took care of Portland in a 16-point blowout win at home on Friday. The Jazz have won two straight home games but at 11-15 overall, they are well short of a dominant home court advantage. Utah has won just four of 19 games following a win this season and it has yet to win three straight home game on the season. Additionally, the Jazz are just 4-30 this season when allowing 97 or more points and the Spurs are averaging 102.8 ppg in their last 18 games after scoring fewer than 100 points. 10* (709) San Antonio Spurs |
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02-23-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Miami Heat UNDER 191.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Miami has gone over the total in four straight games which is certainly a rarity as the Heat had gone under the total in 32 of their first 50 games. It has been the mix of a poor defense and a potent offense over this recent stretch but keep in mind that Miami remains the slowest team in the NBA, averaging just 93 possessions per game so it takes hot shooting from either side to surpass the number. Philadelphia meanwhile has gone over the total in its two games since the break and now it is seeing its highest number of these three games overall. The Sixers are another team that has seen a majority of unders come in as they are 35-20 to the under with that 63.6 percent being the biggest percentage in the league. The numbers go up on both sides as Miami and Philadelphia are a combined 54-26 (67.5 percent) to the over when the total is 190 or higher. Additionally, the under is 21-7 in the Sixers last 28 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 18-7 in the Heat's last 25 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (701) Philadelphia 76ers/(702) Miami Heat |
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02-22-15 | Charlotte Hornets +10.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 81-92 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
After putting together a 12-3 run, Charlotte has lost its last four games including a home loss against Oklahoma City on Friday to open the second half. The Hornets were hurt mostly on the glass in that one but now they face the worst rebounding team in the NBA so they won't have to worry about that tonight. Charlotte is just 9-15 on the road and 10-21 as an underdog but because the numbers are inflated so much, the Hornets are 15-9 ATS on the highway while going 18-13 ATS when getting points which are huge differentials based on line differentials. Dallas is coming off a win over Houston on Friday which followed up a loss against the Thunder to open the second half. The Mavericks are 18-9 at home but like the Hornets and inflated lines, they have covered just nine of those games. Charlotte is without Kemba Walker but the Mavericks will be without Chandler Parson so we can call that a wash. The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Mavericks are 0-4-2 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (813) Charlotte Hornets |
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02-22-15 | Washington Wizards v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 89-106 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
We backed the Pistons on Friday but now we will be going against them as they come in a shorter home underdog. Detroit was able to take out Chicago outright but as good as the value was in the line there, it has completely disappeared as the Pistons are roughly getting five points fewer against a team that is just a game and a half worse than the Bulls. As mentioned Friday, Detroit has one of the better records in the Eastern Conference since late December at 17-10 while Washington is just 13-14 but the situation trumps that today. The Wizards have lost four straight road game to drop to 13-13 on the highway this season which is a part of the line makeup while the loss on Friday at home against Cleveland by 38 points is also playing into it. That was a devastating defeat but that is the type of loss that will spark a team in its next game which I expect with Washington. Speaking of Cleveland, the Pistons have them on deck at home on Tuesday. Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after a win while Washington has won 10 of 13 games this season as a road favorite. 10* (805) Washington Wizards |
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02-21-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Houston Rockets -2.5 | Top | 76-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
While the rest of the NBA card features games involving notable injuries as well as many big name players playing with other teams, Toronto and Houston is the lone game where there will be no surprises. A big surprise from last night came from Toronto as it trounced the Hawks in Atlanta by 25 points thanks to a 56-35 second half advantage. Taking nothing away from what it has accomplished but Toronto has played the third easiest schedule in the NBA Pounding the best team in the Eastern Conference provides an immediate letdown opportunity while on the other side, Houston looks to bounceback from a poor effort in Dallas last night. The Rockers fell to the Mavericks by 11 points in a game that was not even as close as that as they trailed by 20 points late in the second half. The Rockets are now back home where they are 18-8 on the season including wins in eight of their last 10 games. We are getting a solid price and Houston has been awesome in this situation this season, going 13-4 straight up and ATS following a loss while going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss. 10* (508) Houston Rockets |
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