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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-25-17 | Dallas Wings v. San Antonio Stars +1.5 | Top | 94-82 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
**12:00 PM ET** San Antonio is off to a 0-3 start but things are looking up. The Stars lost in Washington and New York, the two top teams in the Eastern Conference, and then came home and fell to Phoenix, one of the top teams in the Western Conference so the schedule has been far from easy. Today, they get some much needed help Moriah Jefferson, who averaged 13.9 ppg last season and Kelsey Plum, the first overall pick and all-time scoring leader in NCAA basketball, will make their season debuts after sitting out the first three games with slight injuries as both practiced yesterday. With Jefferson and Plum sidelined, the Stars have used a point guard by committee, with Sydney Colson and Monique Currie carrying much of the load. Now the backcourt strengthens immensely. Dallas is 1-1 on the season with an upset win at Phoenix and a narrow two-point home loss against Minnesota. This impressive start is making the Wings a bit overinflated here and having the youngest roster in the WNBA will make it difficult to continue any road success. San Antonio won just seven games last season so this number is taking that into consideration as well but finally having the whole roster available today, we can see what is in store for a very bright future for the Stars. 10* (610) San Antonio Stars |
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05-24-17 | Tigers +150 v. Astros | Top | 6-3 | Win | 150 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Detroit has been handcuffed in this series thus far as it has managed only two runs in the first two games and has scored just four runs during its three-game losing streak. The Tigers are now two games under .500 but are only four games out in the American League Central and the contrarian angle here is for the offense to come back to life. Houston still possesses the best record in baseball despite opening this homestand with three straight losses against Cleveland. The Astros are obviously playing at a high level but the moneyline price tags can be inflated when we move down in the pitching rotation and that is the case for tonight. Charlie Morton has been dependable but has been far from consistent as he has just two quality outings in his nine starts. The Astros have won four of his last five starts but a lot of that is due to the offense as Morton has received a whopping 8.0 rpg over that stretch. He has allowed seven home runs this season which has been a big makeup of his 4.26 ERA. The Tigers counter with Daniel Norris who has been inconsistent as well but he has pitched better on the road than at home and he is catching his biggest underdog price of the season. He has struggled big time during the day but he has a 3.95 ERA in five nighttime starts and faces a Houston team hitting just .222 at home and .080 over its last 10 games against left-handed pitching. 10* (919) Detroit Tigers |
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05-24-17 | Padres +141 v. Mets | Top | 6-5 | Win | 141 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
The Padres lost for the sixth time in seven games last night and May has been a disaster as San Diego is 5-15 in 20 games this month. The offense has been able to do nothing as the Padres have scored three runs or less in 14 of those 20 games and to no surprise, they are 0-14 in those games while going 5-1 when scoring four or more runs and the latter will be in play tonight. The Mets have won three of four games on this current homestand and their offense has come alive over the last three games but it has been inconsistent for the most part. The pitching has been consistent though and not in a good way as their 5.09 ERA is the worst in baseball. Robert Gsellman has played a part in the struggles as he has a 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in seven starts and three relief appearances. He has been especially poor of late as he has posted a 9.00 ERA over his last four starts. The Padres hand the ball to Jarred Cosart after putting up a solid outing as he allowed one run on five hits and a walk over five innings Thursday against Milwaukee. He was just activated from the disabled list to make his third start of the season and he has an opportunity to keep it going. While he has been with numerous teams and has been limited, he has solid career numbers with a 3.88 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 69 starts. 10* (903) San Diego Padres |
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05-24-17 | Washington Mystics -2.5 v. Chicago Sky | Top | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
**12:30 PM ET Start** Washington made some major upgrades in the offseason to try to be able improve and challenge New York in the Eastern Conference. So far, not so good. The Mystics opened with a win over lowly San Antonio but have since dropped two straight games against Los Angeles and Seattle. Those two teams are going to be in the playoffs so those defeats cannot be too troublesome. The big addition for Washington was Elena Delle Donne as she was acquired in the offseason and now heads back to Chicago for the first time not being in a Sky uniform. She will not likely get a very warm welcome because she forced a trade and she will be plenty motivated to take it to her old team. Chicago dropped its first two games of the season but bounced back on Sunday as it defeated Atlanta in a revenge game from two days before but this is a team that is still trying to find its identity. The Sky are using the fact they made the playoffs last season with Delle Donne sidelined but it was Delle Donna that pretty much got them there when she averaged 21.5 ppg in 28 games and she has slightly upped that through three games this season. It will be loud and Chicago will be motivated as well but it does not have enough to stop the Mystics which are in need of a big win. 10* (605) Washington Mystics |
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05-23-17 | New York Liberty +2.5 v. Phoenix Mercury | Top | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
There is a lot going on in this game and most of the scenarios favor New York even with this being its first road game of the season. The Liberty are off to a 1-1 start as they defeated San Antonio but were hammered by Minnesota in their most recent game by 19 points. A lookahead to this game seems unlikely since it is so early in the season but New York has some motivation here as after finishing with the top record in the Eastern Conference last season, they were ousted in the playoffs by Phoenix. That loss came at home on top of it so New York wants to return that favor here. The Mercury have won two straight games following a season opening loss against Dallas but they will be shorthanded tonight. Guard Diana Taurasi has been suspended one game without pay for hitting San Antonio Stars forward Dearica Hamby in the back of the head with a forearm. New York lost Brittany Boyd for the season in its last game with an Achilles injury but the Liberty are much better equipped to make up for her loss because of their very deep backcourt. New York is looking to push the ball more this season but the strength is still its defense and that effort will be in full force tonight. 10* (671) New York Liberty |
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05-23-17 | Celtics +15.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The Celtics came through two nights ago as they rallied from a 21-point second half deficit to pull off the improbable win and make this a series, for at least just a little bit. While Boston was probably fortunate to win Game Three, the fact they came back was impressive and showed the fight that they have. As stated in the Game Three analysis, the Celtics are arguably a better team right now without Isaiah Thomas since he was not healthy to begin with and now there is better flow on offense but the big advantage is on the other side as defensively, the absence of Thomas is huge for Boston as he is one of the worst defenders in basketball so now the Celtics will also have healthy bodies to try and slow down the Cavaliers potent offense. Which they did to some extent on Sunday as LeBron James had one of his worst playoff games ever but he will no doubt bounce back. That will take away from Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love but shifting points around does nothing for the Cavaliers. Basically, this line is too big once again as Boston is now 2-0 ATS this season as a double-digit underdog, both covers coming against the Cavaliers. Cleveland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games while the Celtics are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (505) Boston Celtics |
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05-23-17 | Indians v. Reds +160 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The Reds won the opener of this four-game home-and-home set and they are catching a very good number tonight. They have the matchup splits on their side and we go contrarian against the opposing starting pitcher who is going to be very heavily bet tonight. Cincinnati is now 10-4 over its last 14 home games and its hope is the pitching can keep the momentum going after a solid game last night. The Indians had their three-game winning streak snapped last night with the loss as the offense continues its season-long struggles. Gong back, the Indians are 4-11 in their last 15 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The heavily bet pitcher mentioned is Carlos Carrasco and we are going against his 4-0 road record and also undefeated record against Cincinnati. He was pulled from his last start with a pectoral injury and his next start was pushed back so he has lost some of his rhythm which is not good for him as the Indians are 3-11 in his last 14 starts with seven or more days of rest. Additionally, the Reds are 6-1 in their last seven home games against right-handed starters. Amir Garrett looks to bounce back from a rough outing. He has posted two bad starts but both were on the road and both against two top ten offenses. He has a 2.20 ERA in his other five starts and Cleveland is hitting just .220 against lefties which is sixth lowest in baseball. 10* (974) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-23-17 | Royals +137 v. Yankees | Top | 6-2 | Win | 137 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
We lost with the Royals last night but come back with them tonight as they are in a very good bounce back spot. As mentioned yesterday, it was a dreadful start to the season for the Royals but they have avoided big losing streaks recently, going 7-3 over their last 10 games following a loss after last night. The Yankees benefitted from three home runs last night to win their second straight game following a three-game losing streak. New York is still just 5-7 over its last 12 games and even though it got a good start from Michael Pineda last night, the starters ERA over those 12 games is 5.97. Part of those struggles have come from Jordan Montgomery who started the season pretty well with three quality outings over his first five starts but has allowed nine runs over his last two starts covering 11 innings. The Royals are hitting .262 against left-handed pitching over their last 10 games. Danny Duffy counters for Kansas City and he is having a great season with the exception of two bad starts against the White Sox. He posted an 11.17 ERA in those starts but he has put up a 1.31 ERA in his other seven starts. This includes tossing seven shutout innings against the Yankees in his last start and going back, the Royals are 14-5 in his last 19 starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (963) Kansas City Royals |
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05-22-17 | Warriors -12 v. Spurs | Top | 129-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
With the series on the line, we saw the Celtics play with some pride in the second half and came back to win and for the Spurs, it is win or go home tonight. While the Celtics victory can give the Spurs some hope, that win should give the Warriors the extra incentive knowing that upsets are possible and even though they would head home for Game Five, they do not want a Game Five. Cleveland has to play at least two more games which means their maximum time off before the Finals would be six days off but a Golden St. win tonight would mean 10 days off and that is definitely a goal at this point. The Warriors are the superior team here by mile with Kawhi Leonard out as they have outscored San Antonio 314-241 after he went down in Game One. Golden St. had a rough stretch in early March but since a 2-4 skid, it has gone 26-1 over its last 27 games so it is clearly peaking at the right time. The Spurs look deflated right now and after starting strong in Game three, they gave it back in the second quarter and were not able to come back. A slow start tonight is more than likely and the Warriors will be able to pull away and end this series after four games. Laying doubles on the road is never easy but this situation justifies it. Golden St. has covered 10 of its last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (725) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-22-17 | Giants +181 v. Cubs | Top | 6-4 | Win | 181 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The Giants failed to sweep in St. Louis yesterday but they are still 7-2 over their last nine games and should have some extra fire tonight. The last time they faced the Cubs, it was in the NLDS last season in which they lost 3-1 with that dreaded Game Four being a nightmare as Chicago rallied with four runs in the ninth inning to win 6-5. Chicago is a solid 4-1 on this current homestand but sitting only two games over .500 overall and one game over .500 at home, it continues to be overvalued. Ty Blach picked up his first win of the season last time out as he tossed another gem against the Dodgers, allowing one run over seven innings. Overall, he has a 4.15 ERA which looks average but he has a 1.18 WHIP to go along with that which is very solid and that ERA is inflated because of one bad outing against Cincinnati. In his four other starts, he has a 1.73 ERA and the Cubs are hitting just .199 against lefties at home. John Lackey had one awesome start at Colorado two starts back but he has shown some struggles of late. Taking that start out, in his other five starts since April 17, he has a 6.04 ERA over 28.1 innings. He has struggled at home overall this season with a 4.43 ERA and 1.48 WHIP and the Giants are 6-1 in their last seven games against right-handed starters. 10* (905) San Francisco Giants |
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05-22-17 | Royals +159 v. Yankees | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Kansas City lost its series in Minnesota following a Sunday split but it has been on a pretty solid run with an 8-5 run over its last 13 games. It was a dreadful start to the season for the Royals but they have avoided big losing streaks recently, going 7-2 over their last nine games following a loss. The Yankees have come back down to earth following a six-game winning streak in early May as they are just 4-7 over their last 11 games and their lead in the American League East is just a half-game. The pitching has really struggled over this stretch as the starting pitching ERA sits at a whopping 6.46. Michael Pineda has been the one starter that has not struggled and he is having a very strong season overall. He has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts so going against him may not seem ideal but the Yankees are just 1-4 in his last five starts pitching on four days of rest and we are playing Kansas City with a lot of that having to do with its own starting pitcher. Jason Vargas has been great this season with a 2.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in eight starts and this despite a poor outing against the Yankees in his last outing. He will be out for redemption tonight after that game and his numbers are even slightly better on the road. 10* (907) Kansas City Royals |
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05-21-17 | Celtics +17 v. Cavs | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Since the start of the second round of the NBA playoffs when the elite teams typically advance, there have been 26 games played. 22 of those have been decided by double-digits including all five games in the Conference Finals. It has been the most disappointing postseason possibly ever and everyone is just waiting for the Cleveland Golden St. rematch to take place which is inevitable at this point. While Boston has been blown out in both games in this series and now have to deal with no Isaiah Thomas, do not count this team out. Whether or not the Celtics can win is not of importance here but the 16-17 points we are getting as of Sunday morning is of the utmost importance. The loss of Thomas is big obviously but this can be turned into a positive. He has not been completely healthy and because the offense is built around him, it has hurt the team as a whole. Now with healthy players running the offense, there is more flow upcoming and Cleveland will have a difficult time in preparation. Defensively, the absence of Thomas is a huge advatnage for Boston as he is one of the worst defenders in basketball so now the Celtics will also have healthy bodies to try and slow down the Cavaliers potent offense. Cleveland is rolling but this is a perfect opportunity for the Celtics to show up and make this one much more competitive than the first two games. 10* (503) Boston Celtics |
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05-21-17 | Giants +144 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
San Francisco is slowly recovering from a horrible start to open the season as it has won seven of its last eight games following a 12-24 start. The Giants will be eying a sweep in St. Louis today behind an offense that has started to produce better and continued dominance from the starting pitching that has gone at least six innings in every start during the stretch. St. Louis meanwhile has lost four straight games to fall to 21-19 and the Cardinals continue to be an overpriced and overrated team. They are just 11-13 at home but more important, have dropped 6.3 units which shows how overpriced they have actually been. Matt Cain gets the ball for the Giants and while his overall numbers have been average, those can attributed to one bad start. Take away his game where he allowed nine run in 3.1 innings at Cincinnati and his ERA drops from 4.04 to 2.31 in his other seven starts, six of which he has allowed two runs or less. The Cardinals are 1-4 in their last five home games against right-handed starters. St. Louis counters with Adan Wainwright who is coming off his best start of the season where he allowed no runs in seven innings against the Cubs. It was a struggle prior to that however as he had a 6.37 ERA going into that game so he has not turned the corner because of just one good outing. The Giants are 6-0 in their last six games against right-handed starters. 10* (959) San Francisco Giants |
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05-21-17 | Nationals v. Braves +162 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
The Braves will be going for a rare sweep this afternoon as they have taken the first two games of this series to pull into second place in the National League West. The public does not foresee a sweep as the Nationals are the biggest consensus play on the board and we are bucking the public opinion here. Washington has lost four straight games which is another reason it will be heavily bet today but the offense has been slumping and the pitching has been horrible. The Braves are 20-9 in their last 29 games following a win and will look to keep it going against Stephen Strasburg. He is having a solid season with a 3.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP but has not been at his best over his last three starts with a 4.08 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He has pitched well in Atlanta throughout his career but he is catching one of the better Atlanta teams he has seen in a while. The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games against right-handed starters and turn to Jaime Garcia who is having an up and down first season in Atlanta. His career road ERA is 4.25 which is well over a run more than his career home ERA and that is important here considering six of his first seven starts this season have been on the highway. His lone home start at SunTrust Park resulted in a quality outing and a win for Atlanta. 10* (952) Atlanta Braves |
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05-20-17 | Marlins +167 v. Dodgers | Top | 10-6 | Win | 167 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Miami has lost the first two games of this series by identical 7-2 scores and have dropped five straight games overall as the offense has mustered nothing. The Marlins have scored just eight runs over these five games but this offense is much better than this and is in a good matchup tonight. The Dodgers have won three straight following a three-game slide and have improved to 15-6 at home and are again heavy favorites but this is the one pitching matchup where they are not possessing a huge advantage. Dan Straily gets the ball for Miami and after leaving his last start early because of getting hit in the elbow, he is fine and looks to continue his solid start. He has a 3.56 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in eight starts and after a poor first outing, in his last seven starts he has a 2.72 ERA, allowing three runs or less in six of those. He will be opposed by Julio Urias who is making his fifth start of the season. He started the season in AAA to keep his workload down and while his overall ERA has been solid in both places, he has walked a total of 20 batters through 35 innings and that is not good at all. Going back, the Dodgers are 2-5 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Miami is hitting .265 against left-handed pitching including .275 on the road. 10* (913) Miami Marlins |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 214 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The Warriors have steamrolled through the postseason winning all 10 games and all but three have gone over the total including both games in this series. We will take the bounce angle route here and take the under as the total has risen by 3-4 points depending on the outlet so we are getting some excellent value based on the recent results. The Spurs have gone over the total in all but three of their 14 playoff games so the over will be another popular play based on these results as well. The only way San Antonio can get back into this series is playing better defense and we have seen that defense play strong on numerous occasions in the postseason. San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich accused his team of basically quitting in Game Two with the blame going on the defense as they allowed the Warriors to shoot 56.2 percent from the floor including Golden St. to shoot 18-37 from long range. The Warriors are not as strong offensively on the road and if Kawhi Leonard can get back into the lineup, it will certainly be a big boost to the defense. The Under is 13-6 in the Warriors last 19 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (723) Golden St. Warriors/(724) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-20-17 | Blue Jays +143 v. Orioles | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
After an extremely poor start to the season, Toronto started making strides in a comeback as it went on an 11-4 run but has since lost three of its last four games and is now seven games under .500 for the season. The offense has struggled the most but has gotten better over the last 20 games despite injuries taking their toll. Going back, the Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Baltimore has been in a slump of its own as after winning six straight earlier this month, it has gone 2-6 over its last eight games and was fortunate to win last night in extra innings. The offenses could be on display tonight with Mike Bolsinger squaring off against Kevin Gausman. Bolsinger is making his third start of the season and his first one was a lot better than his second one but expect to see better results tonight. Baltimore is hitting just .231 against right-handed pitching at home and the Orioles are 1-5 in their last six games against right-handed starters. Gausman has made nine starts and his results have been worse which is not good over a longer period of time. He has a 7.19 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in those nine games with only two resulting in quality starts. Baltimore is just 1-5 in his last six starts and Gausman is again overpriced. 10* (923) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-20-17 | Connecticut Sun v. Indiana Fever -5 | Top | 79-81 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
We played against the Fever on Wednesday as they went to Phoenix and got blasted by 23 points to fall to 0-2 on the season but a return to Indiana for their home opener is just what they need to right the ship. It was nearly a wire-to-wire win for the Mercury, which trailed only at 2-0. The game was tied at seven before Phoenix started to pull away, eventually leading by as many as 28 in the third quarter. The new look Indiana roster should be very energized playing in front of the home crowd tonight. Connecticut has played only one game this season and that was a full week ago so the question remains if the time off will hurt or help. The Sun did not look good in their season opener as they lost at home to Atlanta by seven points a five-point favorites. They are without two starters as forward Chiney Ogwumike is out for the season with a torn Achilles while another forward, Alyssa Thomas, is out after suffering a concussion in the first game of the season. They accounted for a combined 23.7 ppg last season and their absence puts a big hole in their frontcourt. They basically have just one post player who was with the team last season. 10* (662) Indiana Fever |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +6.5 | Top | 130-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Cleveland steamrolled trough Boston on Wednesday as the long layoff was no issue. The Cavaliers never trailed, led by as many as 28 points and have seemed to prove they are the true top seed in the Eastern Conference. That Game One win gave them home court advantage in this series and Boston knows this is a must win game as heading to Cleveland down 2-0 is a deficit that will be impossible to overcome. This was the second straight time the Cavaliers have come to Boston and not let the Celtics even compete but we should see a different scenario tonight. Effort will be the big part in turning things around for Boston so while we are banking on that, we are also on the right side of the value as the Celtics have gone from -4 to +4 to +5.5 in the last three games played here against Cleveland. Obviously, Cleveland is in the zone right now as it has won all nine playoff games but it is up to the Celtics to get off to a better start. They missed 11 of their first 14 shots and trailed 22-9 with four minutes left in the first quarter and they shot just 35 percent overall in the first half. Playing with just a day of rest after beating Washington may have been an issue after all and while the same amount of rest is in play tonight, it is also the same for the other side. The Celtics may be a work in progress, but as they proved in the regular season, that does not mean they cannot be in win-now mode as well. The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (502) Boston Celtics |
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05-19-17 | Indians +135 v. Astros | Top | 5-3 | Win | 135 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
The Indians went just 2-4 during its recent homestand including a pair of losses against Tampa Bay to close it out. Cleveland had a day off on Thursday which is always a good thing coming off a rough stretch and going back, the Indians are 20-7 in their last 27 games following an off day. Houston also had an off day yesterday and the opposite is the here as the Astros are riding a four-game winning streak while going 9-1 over their last 10 games so the day off could be a momentum killer. While they are playing very well right now, the Astros are 3-11 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning road record. Cleveland hands the ball to Trevor Bauer who had a rough start to the season but he is coming off a quality performance in his last outing. The numbers still are not pretty, and Bauer acknowledges that fact, but he says regression to the mean will be on his side at some point and his HR/FB sits at 20.5 percent, while his BABIP is .350, both much higher than his career averages. The Indians are 5-0 in his last five starts following a quality outing in his last start. Charlie Morton counters for the Astros and he is off to an inconsistent start to the season. He has a 3.97 ERA in eight starts which is pretty decent but his WHIP is at 1.37 which is not. He has been great at home but the Indians are 14-6 in their last 20 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (973) Cleveland Indians |
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05-19-17 | Nationals v. Braves +157 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 157 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
The Braves took three of four against Toronto in the four-game home and home set but did lose the last game last night 9-0. They have not been as bad as expected as they are 16-22 and have played a very demanding schedule with 23 road games and just 15 home games. Washington is 1-2 to open this roadtrip after dropping the last two games in Pittsburgh heading into the weekend. Overall, the Nationals have been solid on the road but have gone just 1-5 in their last six road games. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball for Washington and he has gotten off to a solid start this season but as usual for him, his best work has come at home. He has a 4.26 ERA on the highway and has not had a sub-4.00 ERA on the road since 2014. He posted a 7.11 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in four starts against the Braves last season and the Nationals are 2-8 in his last 10 road starts against teams with a losing record while the Braves are 5-1 in their last six home games against left-handed starters. Atlanta turns to R.A. Dickey and he is having a solid season in his first year in Atlanta. Four of his seven starts have been quality outings and he has allowed more than three earned runs only once. This includes three of four at home with one of those already coming against Washington last month. The Nationals are 1-5 in their last six road games against right-handed starters. 10* (956) Atlanta Braves |
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05-18-17 | Marlins +173 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
We lost with Miami yesterday as it was shut out at home against Houston and the Marlins fell to 6-14 at home which is the worst home record in baseball. While the matchup was in their favor on Wednesday, they got only three hits but the offense is in better shape tonight. The Dodgers won yesterday behind Clayton Kershaw to snap a three-game slide while they also bring in a three-game home winning streak. Los Angeles is a very public team at home and we can see that in the price again here. The Dodgers send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound and he is laying a hefty price despite having a very bad season. He has a 4.99 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in six starts with Los Angeles winning just one of those games. Miami is hitting .266 against lefties this season and going back, the Marlins are 7-2 in their last nine road games against left-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 0-6 in his last six series opening starts. Miami turns to Edinson Volquez has not been much better based on his numbers but he has been more consistent as he has allowed three runs or less in five of his seven starts including his last three. Run support has been the issue but as mentioned, this should be the game the offense comes to life. 10* (907) Miami Marlins |
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05-18-17 | Minnesota Lynx v. New York Liberty +4.5 | Top | 90-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Minnesota hits the road for the first time this season following a season opening victory on Sunday but it was not pretty. The Lynx were able to win against Chicago on a night when they shot 37 percent overall, 23.7 percent in the second half and sub-20 percent in the fourth quarter. That type of performance will not get it done here and even a much better effort may not be good enough as New York will be playing with a chip on its shoulder. The Liberty won their season opener against San Antonio but it was not their greatest effort as they shot just 42.6 percent from the floor including going 1-7 from long range while committing 13 turnovers. It was the other side of the ball that got the job done as is usually the case with this team. They led the league in defensive shooting percentage as they allowed just 41.3 percent from the floor and were in the top four in three-point shooting defense. New York is built around a formidable frontcourt featuring Tina Charles and moving Brittany Boyd into the starting lineup at guard has made the Liberty a quicker and more dangerous team in transition. The outright win is far from out of the question here. 10* (654) New York Liberty |
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05-18-17 | Reds +180 v. Cubs | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
The Reds will be out to avoid the sweep this afternoon in Chicago after dropping Game Two last night despite scoring five runs for the second consecutive game. Cincinnati has dropped five straight overall but is still just a game under .500 as the offense has been great but the starting pitching has been the letdown. Chicago is back over .500 and it has certainly been a struggle putting together any sort of winning streak as the Cubs are just 4-6 following their last 10 wins. While the Reds starting pitching is the worst in baseball with a 5.41 ERA, Amir Garrett cannot be lumped into that category. He has a 4.25 ERA but it is that high because of just one start where he allowed nine runs against Milwaukee. In his other five starts, he has a 2.20 ERA with all of those starts resulting in quality outings. The Cubs are hitting just .241 against left-handed pitching. Jon Lester counters for the Cubs and he has been pretty inconsistent this season with a 3.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. His home numbers are much better as usual but Chicago is just 2-2 in his four home starts and he has allowed 10 runs in 10.2 innings in his last two starts against the Reds. Cincinnati is hitting .262 against lefties which is No. 7 in baseball. 10* (903) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-17-17 | White Sox +155 v. Angels | Top | 8-12 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
The Angels have won the first two games of this series capped off by a two-run, extra inning rally last night to make it three straight wins overall. Los Angeles is now sitting right at .500 but it can be considered a skewed .500 record as the Angels are -13 in run differential. The White Sox are just 2-8 over their last 10 games to fall three games under .500 but they are still positive in run differential and these two teams are not that different where there should be a moneyline this large. Miguel Gonzalez has been pretty inconsistent this season as two of his last three starts have been clunkers but four of his seven starts this season have been quality outings including three of five in night games. Going back, the White Sox are 6-2 in his last eight starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The Angels counter with Matt Shoemaker who has also been pretty inconsistent this season and while he is coming off a great start against Detroit last time out, he is severely overpriced tonight. Los Angeles may be 3-1 in his four home starts but he has a 5.48 ERA in those games with just one of those being a quality start. The Angels are 7-21 in his last 28 starts following a quality performance in his last outing. 10* (967) Chicago White Sox |
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05-17-17 | Indiana Fever v. Phoenix Mercury -4 | Top | 62-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Phoenix opened the season by getting upset at home against Dallas as it lost by 10 points as an eight-point favorite as nothing went right. The Mercury scored just 36 points over the final three quarters while going just 4-19 from long range. The worst part however came on the glass as Phoenix was outrebounded 41-17 including 12-0 on the offensive glass. This all comes after ending last season by getting swept in three games against Minnesota so there should be some urgency going into tonight especially knowing how long it took them to get going last season after a 0-4 start. Indiana lost in Seattle in its season opener and this is a new look Fever team that is without Tamika Catchings for the first time since 2002 and is also breaking in a new head coach so this may take some time to get going. Indiana did acquire Candice Dupree and she really struggled in her first game with her new team. This is a revenge game for the Fever which were bumped by Phoenix in the first round of the playoffs last season but playing road revenge is not an ideal spot and in that game, Indiana was getting 4.5 points at home and is now getting nearly the same amount on the road so there is huge value on the Mercury here as well. 10* (652) Phoenix Mercury |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Cleveland had seven days off after taking care of Indiana and it has no issues with rust as the Cavaliers jumped out to a 30-18 lead after the first quarter. Now they are playing with 10 days of rest but the situation is obviously different as they have to open this series on the road. The Celtics are coming off a seven-game series which could affect their legs but the series was not a grueling one with six of the game decided by double-digits. Boston is 35-13 at home this season and this is just the fourth time all season it has been a home underdog and they are 15-9 ATS at home against winning teams. This line is tricky in that it is stating that the Cavaliers are nine points better than Washington based on the last two Boston lines and simply is not the case. Cleveland is severely overpriced here and while it is the best team in the Eastern Conference despite not having the No. 1 seed, this is too much of an adjustment. In the final regular season meeting in April, Boston was favored by four points so we are seeing an eight-point swing which only adds to the overadjustment argument. Game One is almost a must-win game for the Celtics. Boston is in a rhythm of playing games, and the Cavaliers have not played since May 7 and could be very vulnerable here in the opener. 10* (722) Boston Celtics |
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05-17-17 | Astros v. Marlins +161 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
Houston won its third straight game and its eighth victory in its last nine games with the 12-2 rout last night. The Astros own the best record in baseball but they are certainly paying the price for it here. Miami has dropped seven of its last eight games as both offense and pitching have struggled but this looks to be a situation where both come back together. Jose Urena gets the ball for the Marlins and he will be making his third start of the season after getting inserted into the starting rotation. His first two starts were both solid after a good run out of the bullpen. He has allowed six earned runs in 27.1 innings, giving him a team low ERA of 1.98. Part of his success this year has been due to his control as he has allowed only seven walks all season, giving him a BB/9 rate to the lowest of his career at 2.3. Urena has struggled with his control in the past, which often resulted in a lack of confidence but his confidence is at an all-time high right now. Lance McCullers has been spot on with three straight quality outing, the last two coming on the road but that makes this a good spot to go against him. He was roughed up in his first two road starts and going back, the Astros are 5-14 in his last 19 road starts. 10* (974) Miami Marlins |
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05-16-17 | Dodgers v. Giants +145 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 145 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The Giants took the opener of this series last night and they have now won four straight games to continue to climb back from a poor start to the season. 15 of their 24 losses have come on the road so they have been a much better team at home which makes this price very strong. The Dodgers are two games under .500 on the road but are public favorites again tonight. Rich Hill is back in the Dodgers rotation after a month off because of a middle finger blister and some rehab work in the Minors. Hill threw 68 pitches and struck out three while starting for Single-A Rancho Cucamonga last week. But he also walked three and hit two batters and the blister issue is a real problem as it keeps coming back and Hill no doubt is affected by it as he is unable to go 100 percent. Since coming to the Dodgers, he has made only five road starts and has posted a 4.43 ERA in those games. Since 2010, he has made 145 appearances but only 26 of those have been starts so placing a price tag on him this big is unwarranted. Ty Blach has yet to win this season after four starts but has pitched well the majority of the time. He had one bad outing in Cincinnati but his other three started have resulted in a 1.69 ERA, all of which were at home. He has a 1.13 ERA in 16 career innings against the Dodgers. 10* (910) San Francisco Giants |
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05-16-17 | Rays +160 v. Indians | Top | 6-4 | Win | 160 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Cleveland held on last night as after a 5-1 lead after the first inning, it was able to hold on for the one-run victory. It was the second straight win for the Indians while putting up eight runs in both but do not expect a repeat of that tonight. Tampa Bay is now 2-2 on this current roadtrip following a series win at Boston and it has been crushing right-handed pitching, hitting .341 over its last five games. Danny Salazar is considered part of the Big Three of the Indians rotation but he is not living up to the expectations after a superb 2015 season. He struggled at points last year and this year, he has a 5.20 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in seven starts following another poor outing in Toronto where he allowed five runs in just 2.2 innings. Jake Odorizzi has been on a solid run following a poor opening season start as he has posted a 1.80 ERA over his last five starts, the last two resulting in quality outings. His road starts have been limited to just two with one of those lasting only one inning because of a delay but he has a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP on the highway. All of this is no fluke as after an average first full season in 2014, he has a 3.46 ERA over the last three seasons spanning 388 innings. 10* (911) Tampa Bay Rays |
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05-15-17 | White Sox +171 v. Angels | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a huge value play on the White Sox as there is no way the Angels should be favored by a number this high. They have been favored by as much as -150 but now they are crossing the line of elite moneyline favorite and Los Angeles is far from elite. Chicago took two of three over the weekend against San Diego and it hits the road where it is 9-10 on the season, not a horrible record by any means. The Angeles split with the Tigers in their four-game set and after opening 4-0 at home, they are just 8-8 here since then so there is no home field domination that is dictating the big number. Jesse Chavez gets the ball for Los Angeles and he is not pitching at an elite level as he has a 4.29 ERA in seven starts including a 5.01 ERA in four home starts. He is getting under 3.0 rpg of support in his first year in Los Angeles and the Angels are just 1-5 in his last six starts. Backing Mike Pelfrey can be a stressful endeavor as he is far from dominant but he has been good enough through four starts this season to keep Chicago in the game. He has allowed 11 earned runs in four starts but the bullpen has allowed 10 runs in those starts so he is doing his job. 10* (959) Chicago White Sox |
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05-15-17 | Wizards +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The home team continues to hold serve in this matchup as the host is a perfect 10-0 this season but Boston did put an end to the 9-0 ATS run by the home team. The Celtics were in good position to end the series in Game Six but blew a late lead and the Wizards were able to force a Game Seven. Washington did outplay the Celtics on Friday but shooting was the issue as it went just 5-24 from long range while the Celtics made 11 long balls. The best player on the floor belongs to Washington as John Wall is averaging 26.3 ppg in this round while leading both teams with 10.2 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.8 blocks. He has been the best player of the series and the Wizards will need him at his best tonight. Washington will also have the edge on the glass. If both teams are shooting poorly under the typical Game Seven pressure, then second-chance opportunities could be the difference-maker. The Wizards have outrebounded Boston by almost 6 rebounds per game (and on the offensive glass by 3.3 per game). For Washington to advance to its first Conference Finals since 1979, it will have to break the road team trend of not winning but it is more than capable. The Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on two days of rest while the Celtics are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games playing on two days of rest. 10* (715) Washington Wizards |
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05-14-17 | Reds +131 v. Giants | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
The Reds opened this series with a win over the Giants but have dropped the last two games despite solid pitching once again. Cincinnati has allowed just six runs over the last two games and eight runs total in the three games and going back, it has allowed three runs or less in nine of its last 10 games. The Giants have won the last two games thanks to solid pitching as well but the offense continues its season-long struggles. They are hitting just .228 which is fifth lowest in baseball including only .223 against righties, the second lowest average overall. Tim Adleman gets the call for Cincinnati and he has been pretty solid in his four starts as he has allowed three runs or less in three of those. His ERA sits at 4.44 but his 1.18 WHIP shows he has been better than that. Jeff Samardzija has been all over the place this season as he has posted three quality outings but has also allowed six or more runs three times. He is winless on the season and while his inconsistent pitching is part of the reason, he is getting just 2.6 rpg of support which does not help matter. 10* (911) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-14-17 | Spurs +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
Golden St. has yet to be tested in the postseason as all eight wins have come by double-digits, half of which have come by 19 or more points. The Warriors were blown out by 29 points in the season opener in the only home matchup in this series so there may be a little extra incentive today but with this being the Western Conference Finals, there is plenty of incentive on the other side as well. San Antonio took care of Houston in six games with three of those wins coming by 25, 11 and 39 points so it has been pretty dominant as well. While the Spurs of old were more sluggish, grind it out teams, this version this season is a little different and actually matches up well with the Warriors. San Antonio was able to slow down the fast-paced Rockets and the Spurs defended the arc well as they contested 34 of 40 Rockets three-point attempts in Game Six and that is something they need to do here. The return of Kawhi Leonard is huge and the fact he is well rested is even bigger as he is the one player who can slow down Kevin Durant. He also gives San Antonio its best chances on offense where each possession counts. The Spurs have finished 24.6 percent of their playoff possessions in the final seven seconds of the shot clock, over twice as many as the Warriors (11.1 percent) and that is the one key factor in being able to hang around with Golden St. The Warriors are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games playing on three or more days of rest and we may see more of that rust today. 10* (501) San Antonio Spurs |
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05-14-17 | Rays +148 v. Red Sox | Top | 11-2 | Win | 148 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
Tampa Bay dropped Game Two of this series yesterday 6-3 as it managed only three hits, two coming off Chris Sale. The offense has a much better matchup today and we can take advantage of a very good price. Boston posted four straight wins in mid-April but has gone only 10-12 since then while going just 2-8 in the last 10 games following a win. The Rays are 6-1 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game while the Red Sox are 2-6 in their last eight games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Matt Andriese opened the season with a clunker against Toronto but has been in fine form since then as he has posted a 2.48 ERA over his last six starts. This includes four quality outings with both road starts resulting in quality performances. Drew Pomeranz is coming off a poor outing in Milwaukee as he allowed six runs on seven hits in just four innings and the long ball has been a real issue. He has allowed seven home runs over his last five games and while he has not lost at home, the offense has helped him out which will be an issue today. 10* (921) Tampa Bay Rays |
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05-13-17 | Padres v. White Sox +128 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 128 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
The White Sox have been in a freefall as after the series opening loss last night, they have dropped six straight games to fall three games under .500 following a decent start to the season. While they are struggling, they should not be a home underdog to a Padres team that sits nine games under .500 including a 7-14 record on the road. Even with the loss last night, the White Sox are 9-4 in their last 13 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Trevor Cahill gets the call for San Diego and while he is having a good season overall, he has struggled when not pitching at Petco Park. He has a 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in three home starts but those numbers jump to a 5.82 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in three road outings. While he has pitched bad on the highway, the offense has not helped much, averaging only 3.7 rpg. Dylan Covey has not gotten off to a good Major League rookie season as he is winless in five starts while possessing an 8.28 ERA. However, four of those starts have come on the road and he was decent in his lone home start as he allowed two runs against the Royals. He only went four innings because of a high pitch count but we can see him putting together a good outing as he returns home to face a Padres offense that is hitting just .223, second worst in the National League. 10* (980) Chicago White Sox |
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05-13-17 | Seattle Storm +6.5 v. LA Sparks | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The WNBA season tips off on Saturday and two of the surprising teams from last season take part in one of the opening games. After two straight losing seasons, the Los Angeles Sparks are the defending WNBA Champions but are far from the same team to open the 2017 season, at least for another week. WNBA Finals MVP Candace Parker is overseas, still competing in the Turkish League playoffs, along with Sparks starter Jantel Lavender and top reserve Essence Carson. While the Sparks will miss a trio of players for at least one game, they also lost point guard Kristi Toliver who signed with Washington after averaging 13.2 ppg and 3.7 apg last season. Seattle was one of the youngest teams in the league last season and it showed early on as the Storm opened 6-12 but went on to finish 10-6 over their last 16 games and made the playoffs before an early exit. They are only going to be better this season and have a good opportunity to start strong out of the gates. Along with Sue Bird, Jewell Loyd and Breanna Stewart, the Storm return the majority of the core from last season, including Crystal Langhorne, Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis and Alysha Clark. Seattle won two of the three meetings last season and it catches a big break early in the season facing a depleted Los Angeles roster. 10* (603) Seattle Storm |
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05-12-17 | Reds +141 v. Giants | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
The Reds won a tight one last night as they rallied from a 2-1 deficit for a 3-2 win to make it seven wins in their last eight games. The pitching has been outstanding over that stretch as Cincinnati has allowed three runs or less in all seven of those victories. The Giants lost for the sixth time in seven games as their offense remains one of the worst in baseball as their 117 runs scored are second fewest in all of baseball. San Francisco has scored three runs or less in 16 of their last 24 games. Johnny Cueto is having a decent season thus far as his 4.50 ERA is a little inflated as he possesses a 1.27 WHIP in seven starts. He has been the beneficiary of surprisingly good run support, getting 4.9 rpg but the way things are going now, that will be hard to match here. In his last start, he got nothing which happened to come against the Reds and Scott Feldman. Feldman is pitching great as he has a 3.76 ERA in seven starts and take away one bad outing against the Pirates and that ERA comes down to 2.45. Going back, the Giants are 1-5 in their last six home games against right-handed starters. 10* (913) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-12-17 | Dodgers v. Rockies +182 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The Rockies offense continues to play well as they put up double-digit runs last night for the fifth time this season and currently sit fourth in runs scored. Colorado is now 10 games over .500 and is catching a big number here for obvious reasons. The Dodgers had their five-game winning streak snapped last night and will be a very popular pick tonight to bounce back but there is too much value on the Rockies to pass up. Clayton Kershaw is the reason for the line and while he is having another great season, this is not his favorite venue. He has made 12 or more starts at five different ballparks and Coors Field is where he has been at his worst with a 4.71 ERA and 1.30 WHIP and with the exception of the old Shea Stadium where he made just one start, this ERA at Coors is the highest at any other park which is the case for a lot of pitchers but the thin air even affects Kershaw. The Rockies are 9-1 in their last 10 home games against left-handed starters. Tyler Chatwood counters for the Rockies and while he has a 4.74 ERA, his 1.26 WHIP is very solid. He is coming off another solid start and since coming to Colorado, he has a 3.46 ERA in nine starts against the Dodgers. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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05-12-17 | Celtics +5 v. Wizards | Top | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Boston gained control of this series with a win in Game Five and this was the first game that the Celtics actually outplayed Washington from start to finish. The Wizards led by four points early but Boston blew the game wide open with a 16-0 run and never looked back. Washington has been the better team in this series despite being down. The Wizards jumped out to a 17-point lead in Game One but could not keep it going and in Game Two, they were leading almost the whole game and covering the entire game up until the last minute of overtime. The two games after that were all Washington as it held leads of 30 and 26 points in Game Three and Game Four respectively before finally being outplayed in Game Five. The home team has won all nine games this season with the host going a perfect 9-0 ATS in the series and it is safe to say that we are finally ready to see a close game as all nine games have been decided by at least eight points with the five games in this series all being decided by double-digits. While the obvious play is to take Washington, we are going against the trends and bounce angle similar to what we saw last night with the Spurs which kept the run going of Game Five winners taking the series 83 percent of the time. The Wizards are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss while the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (711) Boston Celtics |
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05-11-17 | Pirates +120 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The Pirates have not gotten off to a good start on their current roadtrip as they were swept in Los Angeles by the Dodgers and have now lost four straight games. They now head to Arizona to stop the streak and Pittsburgh is the biggest consensus underdog on the Thursday card which makes this contrarian play even stronger. The Diamondbacks snapped a three-game skid with a win yesterday over the Tigers but they have gone just 1-4 in their last five games following a victory. Zack Greinke has gotten off to a solid start this season after a tough debut in Arizona last year but he is still getting hurt by the long ball as over his last four games, he has allowed five home runs. This is where Pittsburgh needs to take advantage. Gerrit Cole has been even better as after a bad outing in his first start in Boston, he has been dominant over his last six starts, all being quality performances. His run support has been lacking but the Pirates are 10-4 in his last 14 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game so they have been a great bounce back team when Cole is on the hill. 10* (953) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-10-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
We have stated since the start of this series that Washington is the better of the two teams and we have actually seen that in all four games despite this series being tied at two games apiece. The Wizards jumped out to a 17-point lead in Game One but could not keep it going and in Game Two, they were leading almost the whole game and covering the entire game up until the last minute of overtime. The final two games have been all Washington as it has held leads of 30 and 26 points in Game Three and Game Four respectively and they come in with a ton of momentum. This is being dubbed the most important game in franchise history in nearly 40 years for the Wizards and a big reason for that is they do not want to come back here for a Game Seven. The NBA has had 125 Game Sevens in playoff history and the home team is 101-25 (80 percent) in those games. While this Celtics team is different than the ones in years past, it is interesting to note Boston is 18-4 in Game Sevens at home. When a series is knotted at two, the next game takes on elevated significance. In NBA playoff history, the winner of Game Five has gone on to win the series 83 percent of the time, according to ESPN Stats and Info. We could go over important matchups but those have been covered and no need to again with the exception of noting Washington has outplayed Boston by a significant amount in the four games. 10* (519) Washington Wizards |
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05-10-17 | Indians v. Blue Jays +145 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 145 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
We lost with the Blue Jays last night as they got handcuffed by Carlos Carrasco as they managed only four hits and no runs in the 6-0 defeat. While the line is not as big tonight, Toronto has a much better edge and yet it still getting a healthy number. The Indians have won three of their last four games but are still just 4-4 on this current roadtrip. The starting pitching, sans Carrasco, has been a problem which includes the starter tonight. Danny Salazar is considered part of the Big Three of the Indians rotation but he is not living up to the expectations after a superb 2015 season. He struggled at points last year and this year, he has a 4.28 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in six starts and his numbers are much worse on the road. The Indians are 0-6 in his last six starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Toronto counters with Francisco Liriano and his home/road start stat differentials are some of the biggest in baseball. He has a 1.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in three home starts and a 9.64 ERA and 2.79 WHIP in three road starts. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in his last five starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (912) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-10-17 | Braves +160 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Atlanta lost its fifth straight game last night as Bartolo Colon allowed five runs in the first inning and was unable to catch up. The win for the Astros was their second straight to move to 22-11 which is the second best record in baseball and the recent records have a huge impact in this overpriced line this afternoon as the Braves have a rare advantage in the starting pitching matchup. The Braves starting pitching staff has been one of the worst in baseball in terms of ERA, OBP, SLG, WHIP and several other categories. The lone bright spot has been the pitching of Jaime Garcia whose ERA is 3.99 in five starts compared to 5.18 for the rest of the starters in the other 25 starts. He has tossed three straight quality outings and while Braves starters have just seven wins combined, three belong to Garcia. While Houston is hitting .285 against righties, it is hitting just .239 against lefties. The Astros turn to Joe Musgrove and this is the exact opposite position. Musgrove owns a 5.40 ERA through six starts over 31.2 innings while the rest of the starters have a 3.38 ERA in the other 27 games. 10* (925) Atlanta Braves |
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05-09-17 | Pirates +159 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
The Pirates were pounded in the opener of this series last night 12-1 as they allowed six first inning runs and never recovered. They fell to four games under .500 overall as the offense continues to struggle but tonight could be the spot to bounce back. Pittsburgh is 6-3 this season following consecutive losses. The Dodgers have won three straight games, scoring 30 runs in the process and look to finally be playing like the team many expected combing into the season. They still have not been great at the money window because of the big prices and that is certainly the case tonight. Ivan Nova has gotten off to a great start this season as he has a 2.14 ERA and 0.88 WHIP through six starts. His last outing was his worst but it was not even that bad as he allowed four runs in six innings. This came after opening the season with five straight quality outings. He will be opposed by Julio Urias who is making his third start of the season. He started the season in AAA to keep his workload down and while his overall ERA has been solid in both places, he has walked a total of 17 batters through 24.2 innings and that is not good at all. Going back, the Dodgers are 1-4 in his last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (957) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-09-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
These have been some of the worst NBA Playoffs in recent memory and while you expect blowouts to take place in the first round because of the disparity of the teams, the second round has been even worse. In Round One, 20 of the 48 games were decided by double-digits which is bad basketball in itself but in Round Two, 15 of the 16 games have been decided by at least 10 points. That seems to put San Antonio in the spot tonight but this blowout trend has to eventually start slowing down and our contrarian nature is siding with the Rockets. The first four games of this series have all been decided by double-digits with three of those coming by 20 or more points which is surprising after the four regular season meetings were decided by 12 points combined. Houston knows what it has to do to win this series and it showed in Game Four as the Rockets emphasized the importance of having a pedal-to-the-medal mentality from here on out. That is the lesson they had to re-learn in the first quarter, when that approach led to a 15-point lead just eight minutes in. They made 19 three-pointers and when uncontested shots are falling because of crisp passing, they are nearly impossible to beat and the Spurs still look to be a step behind. Houston is at a big advantage when it controls tempo and it does that by pushing the ball and not allowing the Spurs to set up their defense. While the blowout factor may still be in play, Houston is capable of being on the right end of that while a close game finally also favors the underdog points. 10* (707) Houston Rockets |
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05-09-17 | Indians v. Blue Jays +158 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
The Blue Jays extracted a little revenge last night against Cleveland as they won the series opener, the first meeting since the Indians defeated Toronto in the American League Championship Series last fall. They got a strong pitching performance from Marcus Stroman and are hoping for another tonight from an unlikely source. Cleveland fell to 3-4 on this current roadtrip and the offense has been unable to do anything which helps the Blue Jays cause tonight. The Indians have scored three runs or less in all seven games, averaging just 1.9 rpg over this stretch. Toronto hands the ball to Mike Bolsinger who is the ninth pitcher to make a start this season after Toronto used just seven all of last season. He is making his first appearance with the Blue Jays after coming over from the Dodgers and starting the season in the Minors. He saw limited action last season but had a very strong 2015 season so he is more than capable of producing. The Indians turn to Carlos Carrasco who is riding a five-game quality start performance and his overall numbers have been outstanding. And he is paying the price for it. The Indians are averaging just 3.0 rpg in his six starts while the Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last four home games against right-handed starters. 10* (960) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-08-17 | Giants +144 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
The Giants were swept in Cincinnati over the weekend while getting outscored 31-5 and now sit at 11-21 which is the worst record in baseball. It is no doubt a shocking start for a team expecting to contend in the National League but there is still time and the linesmakers are finally catching up. The Giants are 4-0 in their last four road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Mets won their series against the Marlins but did lose on Sunday as they were shutout. Citi Field has not exactly been kind as they are just 6-11 at home and they are 0-7 in their last seven home games against team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Matt Moore has some pretty ugly numbers at first glance so backing him may not seem like a smart move but there are reasons behind it. His first six starts came against the Dodgers, Rockies and Diamondbacks twice each and those are three very potent offenses. Now he faces one of the worst as the Mets are hitting .227 which is fourth worst in baseball and includes batting just .222 against lefties. They are 1-4 in their last five games against left-handed starters. Jacob deGrom goes for New York and after a great start to the season, he got shellacked in Atlanta last time out and his control remains a big issue. 10* (903) San Francisco Giants |
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05-08-17 | Royals +132 v. Rays | Top | 7-3 | Win | 132 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Kansas City is coming off a rough homestand where it went 3-9 against the Twins, White Sox and Indians. Like the Giants, the Royals are off to a surprisingly poor start as their 10-20 record is the worst record in the American League. While they are off a poor home stretch, they have been bad on the road with just two wins but we are obviously getting a good number now because of that. Tampa Bay is back to a game under .500 following a Sunday loss to Toronto and it fell to 2-3 on this current homestand. The Rays have been generally solid at home but still are not that good where they should be favored by this much. Tampa Bay is 1-5 in its last six games when its opponent scores two runs or less in its previous game. Nathan Karns gets the ball for the Royals and while he has been up and down, he has mostly been on the up side. He is one out away from posting three quality outings in his five overall starts and his last one was the best as he allowed no runs on just one hit in six innings against the White Sox. Blake Snell counters for Tampa Bay and he has been decent but far from dominating. He has allowed more than three runs only once in six starts but has gone more than five innings only once. In three home starts, he possesses a 4.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and is favored by the second highest amount in 25 career starts. 10* (911) Kansas City Royals |
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05-07-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The Wizards won in a blowout on Thursday and are in need of another win today to even up this series before heading back to Boston. Washington is catching a better line today as the number has come down a point from Game Three which goes against the bounce factor. The Wizards contained Isaiah Thomas on offense by making him play defense, as he finished with 13 points on 3-for-8 shooting, missing both of his three-point attempts, for his lowest scoring performance of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Making him play defense is a huge advantage because he just that bad. Out of the 86 results for DRPM (Defensive Real Plus Minus) among point guards on ESPN, Thomas is ranked 86th. As dynamic as he was in Game Two in the fourth quarter and in overtime, he can give it back just as easy as we saw in Game Three. The home floor has been great for Washington recently and all season as the Wizards have won nine of their last 11 games at the Verizon Center and are 34-11 at home on the season. Washington is now 21-9 ATS this season when favored by fewer than six points and the extra rest helps the Wizards as well as they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days of rest while the Celtics are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games playing on two days of rest. 10* (514) Washington Wizards |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz +6.5 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
A switch in venue is just what the Jazz need after losing the first two games of this series by double-digits in Golden St. for the Warriors, the lone disappointment during a pair of double-digit wins has been allowing the Jazz to creep back into games after jumping out to big leads. Obviously, the home floor helped in those early stages of the game where Golden St. has outscored Utah 60-36 in the first quarter. Through the first two games of the series, Golden St. holds a 65-44 assist advantage over Utah which is vintage Warriors basketball and that is something Utah will have to catch up on. The Jazz are 30-14 on their home floor despite going just 1-2 against the Clippers in the first round series but now they are catching a healthy number in could possibly be the only game they may have a chance of stealing against the Warriors. Gordon Hayward shined with 33 points in the Game Two loss, but he needs more help from Joe Johnson, who has cooled off from his phenomenal Round One, Joe Ingles, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors. Hood continues to play through a knee injury, but he has elite scoring ability and the Jazz need that now. The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while going 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing with one day of rest. 10* (510) Utah Jazz |
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05-06-17 | White Sox +196 v. Orioles | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Baltimore won the opener of this series last night to post its second straight win but after a hot mid-April run, the Orioles are just 6-6 over their last 12 games. We go against them tonight in a classic contrarian spot where we are getting exceptional value on the White Sox. Chicago dropped to 4-4 on this current roadtrip but is still a game over .500 on the highway and the pitching remains the strength. The White Sox are 8-4 following a loss this season while going 4-0 in their last four games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Dylan Covey gets the ball for Chicago and while his numbers do not look very good, he has actually been better than what shows. He has been hurt by getting behind the count in some instances which has allowed opposing hitters to tee off to the tune of five home runs in two games. His other two games were very strong where he allowed three runs total over 9.1 innings. Dylan Bundy is the reason for this huge line as he is off to a sensational start with a 1.82 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over six starts, all of which have been quality outings. This is not going to last forever and we can take advantage of that here in what is by far his biggest moneyline favorite price of the season. 10* (921) Chicago White Sox |
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05-06-17 | Brewers +147 v. Pirates | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Because of a lengthy rain delay, the Brewers and Pirates played deep into the night with Pittsburgh prevailing thanks to five pitchers not allowing a run. That snapped a two-game slide for the Pirates but they are still three games under .500 for the season. Going back, the Pirates are 3-10 in their last 13 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Milwaukee fell back to .500 with the defeat and the offense was shutout for the first time this season. The loss also snapped a five-game road winning streak against teams with a winning record as they have been solid on the road this season with an 8-5 record. Matt Garza gets the ball for Milwaukee and he is off to a solid start to the season. He allowed four runs in his season opener but only one of those was earned and he followed that up with a quality outing. Overall, he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP and he has been changing his pitching repertoire which hurt him in the spring but has paid off now. Pittsburgh counters with Gerrit Cole who has thrown five straight quality outings after getting pounded in his season opener. He has just one win though as the offense has given him only 2.8 rpg of support. The Brewers are 9-3 in their last 12 road games against right-handed starters. 10* (903) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-05-17 | Nationals v. Phillies +158 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
The Nationals hit the road after a 3-3 homestand and while they have the best road record in baseball, the one series loss on the season came here in Philadelphia. The Phillies are coming off a rough roadtrip where they went just 1-6 with five of those losses coming by two runs or less including three one-run losses. They head home riding a five-game winning streak at Citizens Bank Park and catch a great number in this spot. Philadelphia gives the ball to Nick Pivetta who made his Major League debut this past Sunday and it was a pretty solid effort. He registered a 3.27 ERA in 148.2 innings between Double A and Triple A last season, while striking out 138 and walking 51. His control continued to improve this season as he got off to a 3-0 start at Triple A. He pitched 19 innings, gave up just two earned runs, walked just two and struck out 24. Now he makes his home debut which is a good situation based on the fact his first game came on the road. Stephen Strasburg is off to a great start this season with a 3.09 ERA through five starts and he has been very consistent by going seven innings in all of those starts. The Nationals are just 3-2 in those games however as they have given Strasburg only 3.2 rpg of support including three runs in two games against the Phillies this season. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +3.5 | Top | 115-94 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
After getting blown out in its first two games, Washington came back last night to win handily against Boston and we have a similar situation tonight with Toronto. The Raptors have dropped the first two games by 11 and 22 points, trailing both games by at least 25 points so their backs are against the wall but a return home will get them back into the series. The line differential heading into tonight favors the Raptors as we are seeing a 10-point shift and part of that is because of the questionable status of point guard Kyle Lowry but all indications are that he will be able to go. One player who will have a better game is DeMar DeRozan who is off one of the worst games of his career, a five-point, 2-for-11 outing in which he did not make his first field goal until the opening minute of the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers looked to have flipped the switch after having a horrible ending to the regular season as they have won their first six playoff games and have now won an incredible 16 straight round one and two playoff games. They encountered their first loss after 10 straight wins to open the postseason last year right in this building and we will see a similar outcome tonight. Despite the first two wins in this series, the Cavaliers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Raptors are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (736) Toronto Raptors |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
The Wizards let us down on Tuesday as the underdog was covering the entire game until losing it in the last minute of overtime to fall down 2-0 in this series. Obviously this is a must win for Washington and being back home on its home floor will get it back in the series. The Wizards have won eight of their last 10 games here and are 33-11 at home on the season. Losing the way they did on Tuesday was a tough pill to swallow for Washington players but they know what is at stake tonight. Isaiah Thomas put up a game for the ages, or at least 17 minutes for the ages, as he scored 29 points in the fourth quarter and overtime which was just one-point shy of the entire Wizards point total. Being lost in that however is that John Wall arguably had just as good of a game with 40 points and 13 assists. The Celtics won all three road games against Chicago in the first round but that was a situation where the Bulls completely unraveled after the loss of Rajon Rondo as the last four games overall were never close. Overall Boston has won and covered six straight games and that is a streak we like to fade, especially with the importance of the game on the other side. Going back, the Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Additionally, Washington is 20-9 ATS in its 29 games as a favorite this season of fewer than six points. 10* (506) Washington Wizards |
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05-04-17 | Phillies +196 v. Cubs | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with the Phillies last night as Jerad Eickhoff was cruising along but hit a snag in the sixth inning and Philadelphia eventually lost 5-4. The Phillies are two games under .500 now as the loss was their seventh one-run loss of the season which is tied for most in baseball with the Giants and Blue Jays. Chicago has won two straight games and has a 1.5-game lead over the Cardinals and Brewers in the National League Central. Despite the win last night, the Cubs are just 1-4 in their last five home games against teams with a losing record. Zach Eflin gets the ball for the Phillies and he has gotten off to a solid start to the season with a 1.89 ERA and 0.68 WHIP through his first three starts. He posted a 5.54 ERA in 11 starts with the Phillies last season but he went through double knee surgeries last fall to relieve chronic knee pain and the former first round pick is pitching like the top prospect he was. John Lackey got off to a solid start with a pair of quality outings but he has had some struggles of late as he has posted a 6.50 ERA over his last three starts, none of which have been quality outings. He has been killed by the long ball as he has given up six home runs over these last three starts. Additionally, opponents are batting nearly .300 against him and his FIP is not exactly awe-inspiring, either, coming in at an unsightly 4.93. 10* (905) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-03-17 | Rangers +167 v. Astros | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
It was a tough loss for the Rangers last night as they allowed five runs in the eighth inning including a grand slam by Marwin Gonzalez which sent them to their third straight loss. Texas has dropped three straight on two other occasions this season and came back both times to avoid four straight losses and they are in a great situation to do it again here. The Astros recorded their 12th comeback victory on Tuesday night which is a mixture of clutch play with some luck involved as well. Houston is laying a huge number tonight and it is not with one of its top starters as Charlie Morton brings in a 4.50 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in five starts. He is coming off a game where he struck out a career high 12 hitters against Oakland but we can call that a fluke as he had not struck out more than seven since 2014. Nick Martinez will be making his third start of the season and his first two have been solid with a 2.77 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 10:1 K:BB over 13 innings. He went back and forth between starting and relieving last season and that is tough for a pitcher to go through. A change in his pitches has helped him out as he ditched his slider, a pitch he threw 21.9 percent of the time in 2016, and added a cutter, which accounted for 25.3 percent of his pitches in April. He is 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA in seven career games (four starts) against Houston and he has allowed three runs or less in 35 of 52 career starts. 10* (975) Texas Rangers |
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05-03-17 | Phillies +184 v. Cubs | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
After erupting for 10 runs on Monday, the Phillies offense got handcuffed last night as they managed just four hits against Jon Lester and got nothing in four innings against the Cubs bullpen. The loss dropped the Phillies to 12-13 on the season which is certainly pretty respectable after finishing 20 games under .500 last season. The Cubs are just 14-12 on the season but are still laying massive moneylines as is the case tonight with all of that based on reputation and expectation. Jake Arrieta gets the ball for Chicago and while he is 3-1, things are not right as he has a 4.66 ERA through five starts which includes a 6.75 ERA over his last three starts. He has allowed six home runs after allowing a total of 16 all of last season so that has been a big part of the problem. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. We played on Jerad Eickhoff in his last start against the Dodgers and he struggled for the first time this season, allowing a season high nine hits and five runs while striking out a season low three batters. He came into that game with a 2.55 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and we can expect to see a bounce back effort tonight. He is a very solid arm in this rotation as he was 11-14 in his first full season in 2016 with a 3.65 ERA, 42 walks, and 167 strikeouts. In the second half last year, he walked only 13 in 88.1 innings and he has now allowed three runs or less in 38 of his 46 career starts. 10* (957) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-03-17 | Raptors +8 v. Cavs | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
We played the bounce angle last night with Washington and while it was the right call, it was a frustrating result as the Wizards covered for 52 of 53 minutes as they lost the cover with a minute left in overtime. We are going with the same angle tonight with Toronto as the Raptors fell behind big early against Cleveland and while they made the final score somewhat respectable, the game was not that close. Cleveland is the top team in the Eastern Conference but Toronto is no slouch and is better than what was on display on Monday and we will see a better effort. The Cavaliers benefitted from seven more made free throws in Game One so it will be up to Toronto to be more aggressive and the Raptors have actually averaged more free throw attempts and makes than Cleveland has this season. The Toronto backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry did not play well in Game One as the duo combined for 39 points, but only got to the free throw line nine times. Getting to the line more is a twofold advantage as it not only presents easy scoring opportunities but also gets the Cavaliers in foul trouble. Four of five starters played 32 or more minutes and the weakness of Cleveland is its bench. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss while the Cavaliers are still just 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (731) Toronto Raptors |
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05-02-17 | A's +127 v. Twins | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Oakland remains on the road and this roadtrip has not gotten off to a good start as it is 1-5 through its first six games but gets a boost tonight in the starting rotation to get things turned around. The A's finally get a break as they have played a very tough schedule to open the season as 22 of 25 games have come against the American League West. Minnesota had a solid roadtrip as it went 4-1 with a series win at Texas and a two-game sweep at Kansas City. The Twins are just 1-6 in their last seven home games however so a return back to Minnesota is something may not want. Oakland sends Sonny Gray to the hill for the first time this season and it hopes its ace is back to form. He threw five one-hit innings for Class A Stockton a week ago Saturday, then came back Thursday with six two-hit innings in Nashville on Thursday. In both cases he was able to hit 94 mph on the radar gun and throw all of his pitches without feeling any discomfort in his shoulder or forearm. Minnesota counters with Ervin Santana who is pitching way over his head and going contrarian is the way to go here. He has allowed one run or less in all five starts but going back, the Twins are 7-16 in his last 23 starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (923) Oakland A's |
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05-02-17 | Wizards +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 119-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
We catch Washington on Tuesday in a good situation in playing the bounce angle. We have flourished playing the bounce angle in the NBA playoffs in certain situations as overreaction from the last game is sometimes too much. Typically, the linesmakers do not make much of an adjustment anymore like they used to because zig zag players were cleaning up playing this angle. However, we are seeing a big jump here as the Wizards are getting four points at the Game Four close and now that number has gone up a point and a half for Game Two. Washington held a 17-point lead midway through the first quarter but were outscored by 32 points the rest of the way so that will be taken into consideration by bettors. The Wizards were clearly outplayed over the majority of the game but they are a much better team than what we saw on the court Sunday and we feel that they are still the better team in this series. Coming away with a win in Game Two enhances their chances greatly in this series but we are getting a very good line on top of that so an outright win is not our big concern here. One big issue for the Wizards in Game One was that Markieff Morris badly turned his ankle and was forced to the locker room and did not return so the rotations were messed up and it was all downhill from there. Now, Washington can adjust without Morris before the game. Going back, the Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (501) Washington Wizards |
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05-02-17 | Blue Jays +184 v. Yankees | Top | 5-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
We won with Toronto yesterday and will come back with the Blue Jays on Tuesday as they are once again catching an overinflated Yankees number. As mentioned yesterday, Toronto finally came into a series coming off a win after losing seven straight series closers prior to that and riding a three-game winning streak will keep that momentum going. The Yankees have dropped two straight games and the pitching has been a real issue during this homestand as they have allowed an average of 7.3 rpg. They are hoping Masahiro Tanaka can stop the bleeding and he is on a roll right now, part of the reason this line is as high as it is. He is coming off a three-hit shutout against the Red Sox which was his third straight quality start after a pair of rough outings to open the season. He has a 4.20 ERA and 1.27 WHIP overall and the Blue Jays catch him at the right time coming off that gem while they are 7-3 in their last 10 games against right-handed starters. Toronto counters with Mat Latos whose best days are behind him but he does provide a quality arm that can still put up solid numbers. He shut out the Cardinals in his last start in St. Louis over six innings. 10* (961) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-01-17 | Rockets +6 v. Spurs | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Both Houston and San Antonio won their first round series rather easily with the Rockets having a less stressful time of it against the Thunder. They head to San Antonio with an 11-4-1 ATS record as underdogs with two of those victories coming against the Spurs. That is a big reason for this play as the matchup is not unfavorable for Houston as the four meetings this season were decided by 12 points combined, three of which came by only two points. Houston has had an extra couple days of rest on top of it which is an additional advantage. San Antonio won its first series in six games but there was a slight scare when the series was tied at two games apiece and it easily could have gone seven games but Memphis was unable to sustain its second half lead. The Spurs had no issues at home against the Grizzlies but that was a slow paced matchup and now they will have to deal will a much faster team. The big matchup is Kawhi Leonard guarding James Harden and while many feel the former has the edge, that is not the case. With Leonard on the court this season, Harden averaged 27.4 points per 36 minutes, shooting 49 percent from the floor and the Rockets outscored the Spurs by seven points in the 141 minutes they shared the floor. The Spurs are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win while the Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (725) Houston Rockets |
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05-01-17 | Rangers +185 v. Astros | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Houston took two of three games against Oakland over the weekend to improve to 16-9 on the season and retain its three-game lead in the American League West. The Astros are now 9-5 at home and are now laying their biggest number of the season which does not make a whole lot of sense in this spot. They have had their issues with Texas over the last couple years, going just 10-28 in the last two season series. Texas went 6-4 on its most recent homestand but did lose its last two series against the Twins and Angels so we are catching a bigger number with a lot of its based on that. This team is better than the record shows and while the Astros are laying their biggest number of the season, the Rangers are the biggest underdog they have been all season. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last four games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. They send Andrew Cashner to the hill and he has been pretty solid with a 2.93 ERA through his first three starts. His control has been an issue but he has not been getting hurt thanks to a solid ground ball/fly ball ratio. Lance McCullers counters for Houston and he has been inconsistent with two solid starts and two blowups. While the two good starts came at home, they came against pedestrian offenses and Texas is fifth in the A.L. in runs and McCullers has an 8.03 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three career starts against Texas. 10* (967) Texas Rangers |
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05-01-17 | Blue Jays +159 v. Yankees | Top | 7-1 | Win | 159 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Toronto picked up a much needed win yesterday as it scored three runs in the eighth inning against Tampa Bay to win its first series of the season. The Blue Jays have gotten off to a very rough start this season but they can finally carry some momentum into a new series as they went into their previous seven series coming off a loss in all of them. The Yankees lost to the Orioles on Sunday which snapped a four-game winning streak and pulled them back into a tie with Baltimore in the American League East. While the season may still be young, this is a massive series for Toronto, which sits eight games back. Marco Estrada gets the ball for Toronto and he is off to another solid start with a 2.70 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through five starts but still does not have a win to show for it. Since coming over from Milwaukee, he has been as consistent as they come as he has a 3.26 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 68 starts. Luis Severino goes for the Yankees and he is off to a surprisingly solid start as well after a rough 2016 season where he posted a 5.83 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 11 starts and 11 relief appearances. He tweaked some things in the offseason so an improvement is not a huge surprise but keeping this pace up is unlikely. He is 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 18.1 innings against Toronto. 10* (961) Toronto Blue Jays |
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04-30-17 | Phillies +183 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
The Phillies lost a heartbreaker last night in Los Angeles as they took a 5-2 lead into the ninth inning but closer Hector Neris gave up back-to-back-to-back home runs and was pulled after allowing another hit before Joely Rodriguez gave up a pair of hits to complete the meltdown. It was the second straight loss for Philadelphia following a six-game winning streak and we will back them here in a good bounce back spot. The Dodgers have won three straight games to claw back over .500 on the season for the first time since April 16. They continue to be overpriced because of expectations and not because of reality. Philadelphia gives the ball to Nick Pivetta who is making his Major League debut today. He registered a 3.27 ERA in 148.2 innings between Double A and Triple A last season, while striking out 138 and walking 51. His control continued to improve this season as he got off to a 3-0 start at Triple A. He pitched 19 innings, gave up just two earned runs, walked just two and struck out 24. Additionally, Pivetta pitched for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic in March. He made one start and took a no-decision in the team's 4-1 loss to Columbia. The Dodgers go with Hyun-Jin Ryu who vis finally coming off a good start but still has nothing to show for it. He is 0-4 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.36 WHIP as he just does not look right. It does not help that the Dodgers have averaged just 1.25 rpg in his four starts. 10* (911) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-30-17 | Reds +155 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 155 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
The Cardinals are a very popular pick today, owning the second highest public consensus on the baseball card but we will be going against this public play today. This game was rained out yesterday which is a big edge for the Reds as they have been atrocious on the mound, allowing 36 runs over their four-game losing streak with the bullpen logging nearly as many innings as the starters so an extra day of rest is huge. St. Louis is on a three-game winning streak and going back further, it is 9-2 over its last 11 games so it is playing excellent baseball right now. Stats wise, there is not a huge discrepancy between these two teams and the line is based on the starting pitching matchup. Bronson Arroyo has some pretty bad looking numbers but he has gotten better as each start has gone on and he is coming off his best start of the season, limiting the Cubs to two runs on three hits in six innings. His 1.24 overall WHIP shows he has been pitching better than his ERA indicates. The Cardinals turn to Mike Leake who has tossed four quality starts and he will be popular to throw another one today. He has not enjoyed success against his former team however as he has a 5.64 ERA in five starts with St. Louis going 0-5. The Reds are 6-3 this season as underdogs between +125 and +175 and while the Cardinals are 3-2 as favorites of -150 or more, underdog bettors know that despite that being 60 percent, they have lost money in the process. 10* (905) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-30-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 111-123 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 16 m | Show |
The home team dominated the regular season series between Washington and Boston as the host was a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the number but we expect that to change in the opener of this Round Two series. The Celtics are overvalued and overpriced. Statistically, Boston was the worst No. 1 seed in the last 38 years and then they lost their first two playoff games at home but came back to win four straight games against the Bulls to advance. The Celtics caught a huge break however as the loss of Rajon Rondo affected the Bulls more than expected as the offense had no flow, managing just 90.5 ppg in his four-game absence. Boston will not be as fortunate here however. Washington let Atlanta hang around for longer than expected but it did the job it needed to and now hits the road again where it is a solid 15-10 over its last 25 games. The Wizards outscored the Hawks 124-66 on fast break points. Their average of 20.7 fast break points per game was the highest in the first round. 20 percent of their possessions were in transition (also the highest rate) and their 1.15 points per possession in transition were third best. That spells trouble for Boston. The backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal dominated with 29.5 and 25.8 ppg, respectively, and based on the overall numbers, Washington has one of the most dominant starting fives in these playoffs. The Wizards are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS win while the Celtics are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (735) Washington Wizards |
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04-29-17 | A's +142 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 142 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Houston took the opener of this series last night to retain its three-game lead in the American League West while improving to 8-4 at home. The Astros are just 3-3 over their last six games however and while they have dominated this series with 10 straight wins, going contrarian here is the play with Oakland having a strong pitching advantage with a solid underdog price. Andrew Triggs has been a great addition to the starting rotation after being designated as a middle reliever coming into the season. He didn't allow a run through his first three starts but allowed six over 4.2 innings in his last outing against the Mariners. Overall, he has a 2.42 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four starts and we can expect a bounceback effort on Saturday. Joe Musgrove counters for the Astros and he has gotten off to a rough start. He has yet to post a quality outing through four starts while putting up a 5.91 ERA and 1.45 WHIP which includes a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in two home starts, both Astros losses. The up and down Oakland offense has a great opportunity to bust out here and put a halt to its five-game losing skid. 10* (975) Oakland A's |
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04-29-17 | Orioles +160 v. Yankees | Top | 4-12 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
The Yankees completed a huge comeback on Friday as they trailed 11-7 going into the bottom half of the seventh inning but eventually tied it up and won in 11 innings on a three-run walkoff home run from Matt Holiday. They have now won three straight games but are overvalued today. The Orioles fell into a first place tie in the American League East with the loss but are still a decent 6-4 on the road and they won their only game this season as an underdog of +125 or more and it happened to come with Ubaldo Jimenez on the hill. Jimenez struggled in his last start as he went only 3.1 innings as he was hurt by issuing five walks but he did allow only three hits against Tampa Bay. He has been solid on the road with a 3.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in two starts covering 12 innings. The Yankees turn to Michael Pineda who is off to a solid start with a 3.86 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts but only two of those have been quality outings. He has been fortunate to get a ton of run support and in 12 career starts against Baltimore, he possesses a pedestrian 4.12 ERA. 10* (965) Baltimore Orioles |
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04-28-17 | Phillies +175 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The Phillies have put together a run of six straight victories to move into second place into second place in the National League East and they are clearly one of the top early baseball surprises. The pitching has been outstanding over this stretch, allowing just 3.0 rpg and we should see that continue tonight. The Dodgers are on the other side of the surprise spectrum as they are just 11-12 on the season as they have been unable to put together any sort of run, going 2-8 following a victory. They won at San Francisco yesterday so that trend is again in jeopardy tonight. Jerad Eickhoff takes the ball for Philadelphia and while he is winless, he is off to a solid start with a 2.55 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in four starts. This is no fluke as he was 11-14 in his first full season in 2016 with a 3.65 ERA, 42 walks, and 167 strikeouts. In the second half last year, he walked only 13 in 88.1 innings and he has now allowed three runs or less in 12 straight games and 38 of his 45 career starts. The Dodgers turn to Kenta Maeda who has really struggled as he has an 8.05 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over four starts and has not gone past five innings. While his 2016 season was solid, he failed to get past five innings in his last seven starts. His fly-ball rate is up to 53.4 percent this season after sitting at 35.7 percent last year so clearly something is wrong and he should not be priced this high. 10* (911) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-28-17 | Rockies +145 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 145 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
First place in the National League West is on the line this weekend as Colorado and Arizona meet for the first time this season. The Diamondbacks took three of four from the Padres to move to 5-2 on their current homestand that included a series win over the Dodgers. They are 11-3 at home which is the best home record in baseball but they are now paying for that and after facing one of the worst offenses in MLB, they now face one of the best. The Rockies were rolling along at 14-6 including a 7-1 run but then the Washington bats tore them apart by putting up 42 runs over the last three games, all losses. Coors Field surely played a part in that as did the bullpen so Colorado could use a long effort from Kyle Freeland tonight. He has been solid in his rookie season and has only had one bad outing in his first four starts, posting a 3.32 ERA which includes two quality outings, both taking place in hitter friendly Coors Field. While his is also another hitter friendly park, he is a ground ball pitcher. Freeland drew 12 ground balls on Sunday and is fourth in the majors in ground ball outs among all pitchers. Arizona counters with Robbie Ray who has been solid as well but his two best starts came on the road in pitcher friendly parks. In two home starts, he has a 6.55 ERA with a very bad 2.40 GB:FB rate. Additionally, he posted an 8.50 ERA in four starts against Colorado last season. 10* (909) Colorado Rockies |
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04-28-17 | Celtics -2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 105-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Chicago is on the brink of elimination as it is down three games to two following three straight losses after taking a 2-0 lead in this series. The offense has been horrible over the three losses, averaging only 93 ppg on 43.6 percent shooting and there seems to be no answer in sight. The Celtics were dominant once again in Game Five and played exceptional to the supposed strength of the Bulls. They forced 16 turnovers for 23 points, limited Chicago's rebounding advantage to 42-38 despite going small all night, and outscored the Bulls in the paint (56-42), on second chances (15-4) and in transition (12-4). This is a different scenario for Boston as unlike each of the previous win-or-go-home games, the Celtics are not looking to stave off elimination. Because of that, the Game Six matchup against Chicago presents a different kind of challenge unlike anything this team has seen before but the way they have turned things around shows it will be a non-issue. The loss of point guard Rajon Rondo cannot be overstated for the Bulls. There was a time earlier in the season when Rondo was benched as a healthy scratch and Chicago was able to work around that. However, when he has missed due to being injured when he is a big part of the lineup, the Bulls are 2-7. The Celtics are 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (509) Boston Celtics |
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04-27-17 | Toronto Blue Jays - Game #2 +154 v. St. Louis Cardinals - Game #2 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The Blue Jays and Cardinals were rained out last night so they will be playing a day-night doubleheader and this is a play on Game Two. Toronto won the opener of this series on Tuesday and it has been playing a little better since a horrific start to the season as it is 4-3 over its last seven games as it has been dealing with a ton of injuries. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five Interleague road games. The Cardinals are nothing special this season with a 9-11 record but are laying an overly big number and one that is simply too big. St. Louis is just 5-5 at home and going back, the Cardinals are 1-10 in their last 11 Interleague home games. Adam Wainwright is a big reason why this line is so big and while we played against him and lost in his last start, he was not particularly well and escaped because of his own bat where he hit a home run and drove in four runs. Overall, he has a 6.27 ERA and 1.93 WHIP and has yet to toss a quality outing in four starts. Casey Lawrence is not going to impress anyone with his numbers either but after a pair of poor relief outings, his first big league start was pretty good. Lawrence finished his first career start having allowed five runs, four earned, on eight hits and three walks with four strikeouts over 6.1 innings. Toronto is tied with San Francisco with a 3-7 record in one-run games so both of those teams are arguably a lot better than their record shows. 10* (971) Toronto Blue Jays (Game Two) |
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04-27-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
It is do-or-die time for Milwaukee as it has to win tonight or the Bucks will be sent to their seventh consecutive first round series loss. Milwaukee is certain to make adjustments after dropping two straight in a series they led 2-1 after a 27-point home rout in Game Three and it unfortunately ran into an unconscious Toronto team on Monday as the Raptors shot a franchise playoff record 57.7 percent from the floor. In the games Milwaukee has won, one thing is clear. They held the Raptors to bad outside shooting, and they took efficient shots. In Game Three, the Bucks shot 52 percent from the floor and from behind the arc. They have to hit these shots if they want to take this to a Game Seven. The one key player is Khris Middleton who is coming off his worst game of the series as he scored just eight points on 3-for-8 shooting with a three-pointer in Game Five. Milwaukee limited its turnovers early in the series but committed 20 miscues in its Game Four loss at home and had 15 turnovers leading to 28 Raptors points in Game Five. Additionally, the Bucks need to be more physical as the more aggressive team has prevailed in the first five games of this series. The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and the Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (502) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-26-17 | Mariners v. Tigers +124 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
The Tigers offense exploded for 19 runs last night and while we will not see the same output tonight, the offense is off to a great start this season. They have gotten off to a 6-2 start at home which has kept them in the lead in the American League Central by a game over Chicago and Cleveland. Seattle continues to struggle on the road as it fell to 2-10 on the highway as the bats and the pitching have both been atrocious. James Paxton has been a bright spot in the rotation, up until his last game that is. He opened the season with three starts of not allowing a run but in his last game, he allowed five runs in 4.1 innings against Oakland which was not surprisingly on the road. The Tigers have won four straight home games against left-handed starters while the Mariners are 4-12 in Paxton's last 16 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Detroit counters with Daniel Norris who is also off to a solid start and is coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed four runs in 4.2 innings at Tampa Bay. He posted a quality outing in his lone home start this season against the Red Sox and he has been sensational with a 3.21 ERA in 13 starts since the All Star Break last season. The Tigers are 5-0 in his last five starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (922) Detroit Tigers |
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04-26-17 | Rays +136 v. Orioles | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Tampa Bay snapped a two-game slide with a 2-0 victory last night while also picking up just its second road win of the season. The Rays moved back to .500 overall and look to keep the stellar pitching going as their 3.71 ERA is ranked No. 7 in the league. Baltimore is off to a very hot start and we will be going against the Orioles in a contrarian play here and starting pitcher Dylan Bundy. Bundy has an ERA of 1.37 that leads everyone that has made at least one start for the Orioles this season, and his 4.1 percent walk rate is more than half the league average. His stinginess with the free passes has kept his FIP down at just 1.84, again leading the Orioles staff by a considerable margin. It is time to go against here though as in two starts against the Rays, he has an 8.10 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Alex Cobb goes for Tampa Bay and he has not been very sharp with a 4.88 ERA in four starts. The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Houston Astros have been offensive juggernauts recently, and they offer a tough match-up for any pitcher but it is a concern as he has not been the same since coming back from Tommy John surgery. Still, he has a ton of upside and faces a struggling Orioles offense that is hitting just .232, fourth lowest in the American League. 10* (917) Tampa Bay Rays |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -5.5 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
We lost with the Wizards on Monday as Atlanta used a 34-24 fourth quarter to pull away and win by 10 points. The home team has held serve so far in this series and it has been the Hawks that have been more dominant as they have won by 18 and 10 points while Washington took its two games by seven and eight points. Of the three wins by Atlanta over the Wizards this season, Washington has leads in the fourth quarter in two of those so even though the season series is at 5-3 in favor of Washington, it could be 7-1 if they were able to close these games out. Heading back home is what the Wizards been and they are again catching a good line. They are 32-11 at home this season and are laying a number that has been great as they are 15-5 ATS as home favorites of 5.5 points or less. Atlanta has been a below average road team this season and it is on a 2-9 run on the highway going back to mid-March. Before Game Three, Washington was pleased with how the team had been sidelining Dwight Howard and the Wizards were also pleased with their adjustments when Howard is absent. Then the Hawks big man posted a +24 in 26 minutes in Game 3, with only three fouls and a +8 in 30 minutes in Game Four, with also just three fouls. The Hawks are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Look for a big Wizards rebound on Wednesday. 10* (710) Washington Wizards |
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04-25-17 | Jazz +3.5 v. Clippers | Top | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Utah tied this series at two games apiece on Sunday and now has the edge moving forward despite having to play two games on the road should the series go the distance. The Clippers are without Blake Griffin for the remainder of the season with a toe injury as their luck once again has derailed them in the playoffs. The Jazz were able to tie this series up with Rudy Gobert coming back but not nearly 100 percent and he played only 23 minutes while Gordon Hayward was limited to just nine minutes because of food poisoning. Both will be ready to go tonight and the longer this series goes on, the tougher it becomes for the Clippers because of the increased workload Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan now face, and the overall age of the rest of the rotation. Utah was able to take advantage inside as Los Angeles was outscored 58-36 in the paint, and that is the area Griffin does most of his damage. The Clippers will get Austin Rivers back which looks like a move of desperation as he was not supposed to be back in this series at all and he should be far from 100 percent. The Jazz are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (707) Utah Jazz |
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04-25-17 | Cubs v. Pirates +130 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
We won with this pitching matchup a just over a week ago and we will go with it again here. The Cubs bats exploded last night with 14 runs but the matchup is a lot tougher tonight. Despite allowing a pair of double-digit run total of their last three games, the Pirates have allowed three runs or less seven times in their last 10 games. After a very rough outing to open the season against the Red Sox, Gerrit Cole rebounded nicely in his second start against the Braves, allowing three runs in three innings although he was unable to pick up the victory. He has since posted two more quality outings against the Cubs and Cardinals. Cole has succeeded against them his entire career. He is 9-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 12 career starts. Kyle Hendricks counters for Chicago and after a sensational 2016 season, he has had a rough time of its this year. He has a 6.19 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through three starts, none of which have been quality outings. He had three solid starts against the Pirates last season but things are not right. His fastball velocity has continued to drop, hovering around 84 his last two starts, down from 88 last season. During the first outing against the Pirates, his fastball averaged at 84.97. 10* (954) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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04-24-17 | Dodgers v. Giants +140 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 140 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Both the Dodgers and Giants are off to rough starts as they meet for the first time this season. San Francisco split in Kansas City on Tuesday and Wednesday before getting swept in Colorado over the weekend to fall to 3-9 on the road. The Giants are 3-4 at home including a pair of one-run losses and they look to get their slumping offense back on track. Los Angeles salvaged a game in Arizona on Sunday to avoid the sweep and it is just 3-6 on the road. The pitching has struggled especially with a 5.21 ERA from the starters and 4.97 ERA from the relievers. The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last six games following a win and they send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the hill. He is off to a poor start following some nearly non-existent seasons because of shoulder injuries. He appeared in only one major league game the last two seasons and while he earned a spot in the rotation this year, he has a 5.87 ERA and .50 WHIP through three starts. The Giants are 37-18 in their last 55 home games against left-handed starters and they turn to Matt Cain who is pitching well following a bad 2016. He has allowed just two earned runs over his last two starts covering 12 innings and in his lone start against Los Angeles last season resulted in a quality outing. 10* (910) San Francisco Giants |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
With the victory on Saturday, Atlanta has won five straight home games and has gotten back into the series now by trailing two games to one. The Hawks 18-point win was more than the Wizards winning margins in the first two games combined but we have to make sure we realize which is the better team as those margins do not necessarily indicate that. Washington said it had to withstand the first five minutes of Game Three knowing the Hawks would come out with great intensity but the Wizards played the first quarter at half speed, allowing 38 points and setting the tone for the rest of the game in which they trailed and chased but never caught up. To leave Atlanta with a stranglehold on this round, up 3-1 as opposed to a 2-2 tie, Washington must heighten its sense of urgency, especially at the start of the game. Washington had won five straight against the Hawks prior to Saturday so it does have the matchup advantage. For Atlanta, one of the biggest factors in making this a series was committing only 11 turnovers after committing 18 in Game One and 19 in Game Two so it is up to Washington to play more intense and force more turnovers. The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while the Hawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (519) Washington Wizards |
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04-23-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +3 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
In a league where the home court is so coveted, the road team has dominated this series thus far with three straight wins heading into Game Four. Give Boston credit for stepping up on Friday and getting itself a slim chance of getting back into this series after a pair of home losses but it was fortunate that the due of Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler shot a combined 33 percent from the floor in Game Three. It was an unfortunate situation for the Bulls on Friday because of the 6:00 PM local start time in Chicago, half of the arena was still empty at tipoff as thousands of commuters could not find their way through the horrific weekend traffic to the United Center in time for the start of the game. Luckily, Sunday will not provide that same issue plus will Chicago have to deal with a last minute injury and scramble to put together a lineup and gameplan which certainly hurt after having two days off prior to Game Three. The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points while the Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. 10* (514) Chicago Bulls |
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04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Laying points on the road in the playoffs is tough to swallow at times but the advantages are there if the situation is right and this is one of those times. After annihilating Memphis in the first two games of this series, the Spurs were competitive for a half in Game Three before the Grizzlies pulled away and eventually won by 11 points. The home team has won all seven meetings this season but the first of the three home wins for Memphis, San Antonio was without Kawhi Leonard so there is an asterisk beside that one. The Spurs have been a great team bouncing back from defeat and are actually the best in the NBA over the last two seasons as they are 30-9 over their 39 games following a loss. And they have been at their best following bad losses. The Spurs looked nothing like the team that won 63 games during the regular season as while they remained competitive early, their offense sputtered throughout the second half. Memphis came in with more energy following the rant from head coach David Fizdale after the Game Two defeat and it is pretty safe to say we will not be seeing a flat Spurs team on Saturday. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. 10* (505) San Antonio Spurs |
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04-22-17 | Raptors +2.5 v. Bucks | Top | 87-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Toronto never led in Game Three and put up one of their worst offensive performances in playoff history as the Raptors scored 46 points through the first three quarters. They went into halftime down 57-30 which was just four points shy of their biggest halftime deficit in playoff history but we can expect a rebound today as this series is far from over and as bad as the Raptors have looked to some, they can gain home court advantage back today with a victory. Milwaukee has covered all three games in this series thus far and clearly had the energy in Game Three but this is a game where experience should come through. Kyle Lowry (44), DeMar DeRozan (31), DeMarre Carroll (47), Jonas Valanciunas (23) and Serge Ibaka (89) came into the series with 234 games of playoff experience while Milwaukee brought in just 28 games of playoff experience. The fact that this is a day game definitely helps the road team as night games tend to be a lot more frenzied. Toronto has covered four of its last five games following a loss while the Bucks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (501) Toronto Raptors |
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04-21-17 | Rockets v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
We won with Oklahoma City on Wednesday but unfortunately for the Thunder, they blew a 15-point lead and lost their second straight game in this series. Like Indiana last night, this is certainly a must win for the Thunder and while the Pacers choked it up, Oklahoma City gets it done here. They are 28-13 at home including a 25-8 record when favored, covering 23 of those games while going 8-4 ATS this season when favored by fewer than three points. Houston had a significant home court advantage during the first two games and the Rockets have been great there all season long and we will see a switch in that tonight and the Thunder should have learned something from the Indiana choke job last night. The Thunder got nothing in Game One from everyone outside of Russell Westbrook and Andre Roberson. In Game Two, they basically got everything from everyone except Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis. For Game three, it does need to be a full team effort. Westbrook tallied a massive triple-double with 51 points, 10 rebounds and 13 assists, but a poor 4-for-18 shooting performance in the fourth quarter left the Thunder just short in Game Two. The Thunder are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games including 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (718) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-21-17 | Indians v. White Sox +147 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The Indians are coming off a road sweep in Minnesota which ended a 1-4 slide and put Cleveland back over .500 for the season. They have been solid on the road but are now favored by the largest amount they have been all season and that is of course based on the starting pitching although it is still too aggressive from what we have seen. The White Sox lost of three in New York against the Yankees but is coming off a successful 5-4 roadtrip. Chicago is right at .500 and while it has been unable to get any big run going, it is 5-1 this season following a loss. Corey Kluber and Jose Quintana have gotten off to similar starts and neither have been good. Kluber has a 6.38 ERA and 1.42 WHIP through three starts, two of which have been blowups. He is a better pitcher than this but has been hurt by the long ball and he has been up and down in his career against the White Sox. Quintana has a 6.75 ERA in his first three starts and while he has given up 13 earned runs over 17.1 innings, 10 of those have come via a pair of five-run frames against the Tigers and Twins. Quintana is 7-3 with a 2.53 ERA in his career against the Indians while tossing nine straight quality starts, posting a 1.75 ERA over that stretch. The Indians are 0-4 in their last four games against left-handed starters. 10* (972) Chicago White Sox |
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04-21-17 | Royals +143 v. Rangers | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The Royals lost a tough one in the opener of this series as they went 13 innings without scoring in a 1-0 loss to fall back under .500 for the season. It was the fourth straight game that they were held to two runs or less and they have managed just four runs total over that stretch. The pitching has kept them afloat as over the last seven games, Kansas City has given up just seven runs. Texas has also struggled with the offense with just four runs over its last three games and the Rangers possess an overall worse average than the Royals while their pitching is not nearly as strong. Cole Hamels has been decent with a 3.50 ERA and 1.12 WHIP but he is not the dominant pitcher he used to be and his 11:7 K:BB ratio is a concern. He is still priced high like an elite starter however despite the Rangers going 0-3 through his first three outings. The Royals are 4-1 in their last five road games against left-handed starters. Nathan Karns gets the ball for Kansas City and while his numbers look awful, they are skewed. He opened the season by allowing four runs in .2 innings in a relief appearance but has allowed just two runs in 11.2 innings in two starts since then. The Rangers are 1-7 in their last eight home games against right-handed starters. 10* (969) Kansas City Royals |
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04-20-17 | Nationals v. Braves +169 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
After winning their first four games in their new stadium against the Padres, the Braves have lost their last two games and will be out to avoid a sweep against Washington tonight. The pitching allowed 14 runs last night after allowing a total of 13 runs in their previous five games. Washington has now won three straight games to move to 9-5 overall but going back, the Nationals are 1-5 in their last six road games against teams with a losing record. Stephen Strasburg has gotten off to a solid start this season with three quality outings in three starts but the best two came at home which has been the case throughout his career. While his road numbers are far from horrible, they are considerably worse than his home numbers. Of all teams has faced at least eight times, his ERA and WHIP are the highest against Atlanta. R.A. Dickey counters for Atlanta and he bounced back after a poor outing in his Braves debut as he tossed a quality start against the Padres. This will be just the second time that this Washington lineup has seen Dickey which is a big edge for a knuckleball pitcher. He allowed two runs in in six innings in his start against the Nationals in 2015. 10* (902) Atlanta Braves |
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04-20-17 | Cavs -2 v. Pacers | Top | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Each series has now gone two games and the Game One ATS winner is now 6-2 ATS in Game Two so players using the Zig Zag Theory have not fared well. We did go against one of those last night and won with the Thunder and we will do the same tonight with the Cavaliers which are 0-2 ATS in this series thus but very well could be 2-0 ATS. Cleveland burned us twice in the first two games of this series as it blew a 12-point lead in Game One after getting outscored by seven points in the fourth quarter and then blew a 19-point lead in Game Two after getting outscored by 12 points in the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers won both games however which makes this a must win game for the Pacers but this is not a good matchup at all. Cleveland is 5-1 in the six meetings against Indiana this season with the one loss coming here in the first meeting back in November but LeBron James was a scratch as he did not dress for that game. Going back to the 2015 postseason, the Cavs hold a 26-4 playoff record against Eastern Conference opponents, which includes an 11-3 mark on the road. Additionally, James has won at least one road playoff game in 26 consecutive playoff series, a streak that dates back to the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland has won 17 of 26 games as a road favorite this series and it takes a commanding lead in this series. 10* (709) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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04-20-17 | Angels +156 v. Astros | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
The Angels snapped a six-game losing streak with a 5-2 win over Houston on Tuesday but failed to capitalize on that as they lost yesterday as the offense was shut down by Dallas Keuchel. Los Angeles has struggled with the bats since the start of the previous losing skid but has a chance to break out today. The Astros meanwhile are now on a 6-1 run and improved to 6-4 at home but going back to last season, they are 5-12 in their last 17 games during Game Four of a series. Matt Shoemaker gets the ball for the Angels and he has gotten off to an average start which is mainly due to one bad outing against the Mariners. He may have likely been rattled that game since it came against the same team that ended his season a year ago after getting hit in the head with a line drive that required emergency brain surgery. He has faced the Astros seven times with six of those resulting in quality outings including four last season that resulted in a 2.22 ERA. Lance McCullers goes for the Astros and he is coming off a rough outing against Oakland where he allowed five runs in just 4.1 innings and while he has been solid against the Angels in his career, Houston is just 3-3 in his six starts. 10* (917) Los Angeles Angels |
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04-19-17 | Giants v. Royals +129 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 129 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Royals has a four-game winning streak snapped last night with a 2-1 loss to the Giants as the offense got handcuffed against Matt Cain. The pitching remains the strength however as Kansas City has allowed two runs or less in its last five games while the bullpen has not allowed an earned run over this stretch. San Francisco snapped a two-game slide with the win but is still just 6-9 on the season and has been unable to put together any sort of run, going 1-4 in its five games following a victory. Madison Bumgarner has pitched well enough to win but has been unable to do so as the Giants are 0-3 in his first three starts. He has tossed three quality outings in those starts but he has a 3.43 ERA which is pretty average and would be his highest ERA ever. He is still a dominant pitcher when in typical form but we have not really seen it yet this season. Jason Vargas counters for the Royals and he has been dominant with a 0.66 ERA through his first two outings. Many will call this a fluke but he has been solid since coming to Kansas City and he could be even stronger now that he is over six months recovered from Tommy John surgery. He has a 3.52 ERA in 44 starts covering over 255 innings with the Royals. 10* (980) Kansas City Royals |
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04-19-17 | Thunder +8 v. Rockets | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Oklahoma City hung around for a while against Houston on Sunday but the Rockets pulled away in the second half by outscoring the Thunder by 26 points to take Game One of this series. The Thunder shot just 37 percent from the floor with Victor Oladipo having the worst night with a 1-12 performance but we can expect a better display tonight from him and the rest of the team for that matter. While the last two games in this season series have resulted in double-digit Houston wins, the first three meetings were decided by a total of seven points. The problem in Game One for the Thunder was the inability to win the rebounding battle despite coming in as the best rebounding team in the NBA. There is little excuse for the top rebounding team in the NBA to be outworked 14-7 on the offensive glass, and outscored 31-4 in second-chance points by any opponent. The Thunder were below average on the road this season but are still a solid 7-3 over their last 10 games on the highway and the Rockets will not have the same energy they had on Sunday as it is extremely hard to replicate a resounding victory like they had. We talk about the bounce angle often in the playoffs and we avoided it last night with the Bulls and so far in this postseason, teams that have lost Game One against the number are 0-5 ATS in the next game but we are going against the tonight. 10* (703) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-19-17 | White Sox +192 v. Yankees | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
The White Sox won for us last night and we are backing them again at a price that is once again overadjusted for the wrong reasons. Chicago has now won five of its last seven games on this roadtrip and will be out to end it with another victory tonight. New York had an eight-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and this is a team that was playing over its head but is still laying an elite team moneyline. Masahiro Tanaka gets the ball for the Yankees and while he is coming off a quality start in his last outing, it was far from dominant and something is not right. He has allowed 13 earned runs in 14 innings so far, the bulk of which came in a disastrous Opening Day start at the Rays but allowing six runs on 11 hits and six walks in his last two starts is far from strong. He does not lose often at home but the spot and number are not good here. The White Sox have held opponents to two runs or fewer seven times this season and to six hits or fewer seven times. Dylan Covey is responsible for some of that as in his major league debut Friday at Minnesota, he allowed one run and five hits in 5.1 innings. That confidence moves forward. 10* (967) Chicago White Sox |
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04-18-17 | Bulls +7 v. Celtics | Top | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Tuesday features three games where the home team lost Game One making these games nearly must wins for all three teams. That includes the Celtics which lost at home on Sunday despite a very inspirational effort by Isaiah Thomas and while the situation may call for a bounce back here, the value is not there. We talked about the bounce angle yesterday with the Cavaliers and they blew an 18-point lead by letting up late once again but that bounce angle is not in favor of Boston here based on the line which has gone the opposite way unexpectedly. Boston entered the playoffs as one of the weakest No. 1 seeds in recent memory as the Celtics finished the season with just a +2.6 ppg differential which was just two points better than the Bulls and the veteran advantage that Chicago has cannot be overstated. In Game One, the Bulls dominated the boards, ending up with a 53-36 advantage. The Bulls controlled inside throughout the game and forced the Celtics into shooting from the outside, where the shots stopped falling in the fourth quarter. Boston is just 6-15 ATS this season as a favorite of seven or more while Chicago is 9-3 ATS as an underdog of seven or more and the situation also favors Chicago as the Bulls are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (527) Chicago Bulls |
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04-18-17 | Phillies +155 v. Mets | Top | 6-2 | Win | 155 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
After starting the season 3-3, the Phillies have dropped five of their last six games but they have been competitive during this rough stretch as four of those losses have been by five runs combined. We played on them Sunday and they were one out away from a +158 payout but Joaquin Benoit allowed a three-run walkoff home run to Bryce Harper. Despite a 4-8 record, Philadelphia is just -3 in run differential and it is in a good spot tonight to bounce back. The Mets are 7-6 and losers of three straight games and while the pitching has been decent albeit unspectacular, the offense has been horrid as they are hitting just .223 which is fifth worst in baseball. The Phillies lost Clay Buchholz to a tear in his pitching forearm but it may not be the worst loss with his 12.27 ERA and he will be replaced by Zach Eflin who was called up after two impressive Minor League starts where allowed no runs over 10 innings in two starts. He finished last season with a 5.54 ERA in 11 starts, taking his worst licks at the beginning and at the end but he had two complete games in-between including a three-hit shutout so he has great potential. Zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Mets and he has been below average in two starts with a 7.45 ERA and is totally overpriced here. 10* (903) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-18-17 | White Sox +166 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 166 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
We lost with the White Sox last night despite outhitting the Yankees 11-10 but we will come back with them tonight as the New York price continues to rise. The Yankees are in the midst of their longest winning streak since 2012 and are off to their best start at home in nine years so the linesmakers have no choice but to adjust the price and they are favored now by the most they have been all season. Luis Severino is coming off arguably his best start as a Yankee as he scattered five hits in seven innings while allowing two runs and striking out a career high 11 batters. Despite that effort, he has no business laying a number like this as his first start this season was below average and last season, he closed the season in the bullpen after struggling mightily in the starting rotation, posting a 10.21 ERA in 11 starts. Miguel Gonzalez counters for the White Sox and after opening the season with a quality outing, his second effort was not as good as he allowed three runs in 4.2 innings at Cleveland. He was very solid in his first year in Chicago with a 3.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 213 starts as he allowed three runs or less in 19 of those. He was the most profitable pitcher last season in terms of units thanks to going 7-3 as an underdog of +150 or higher. 10* (913) Chicago White Sox |
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04-17-17 | Padres +150 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The Padres will be out to avoid the sweep on Monday as they have dropped the first three games of this series to fall to 5-8 coverall. The offense has been non-existent as San Diego has managed only two runs in each of the first three games but this is a good opportunity to get the bats going before heading back home. The Braves have now won four straight games which came after a five-game losing streak but this line is unjustified as this is still a team in rebuilding mode and should not be favored by a number this big. Jered Weaver is making his third start and it has not been all that bad. In his first start, he allowed four runs on five hits in five innings. Two of those hits came from Yasiel Puig and unfortunately for Weaver, both were two-run home runs which accounted for 40 percent of the hits allowed and all four runs so the outing was not really as bad at first glance with the exception of two bad pitches. He is coming off a quality outing in his last start, allowing just two runs on three hits in six innings. Those were against the Dodgers and Rockies so he takes a big step down in offense tonight. Jaime Garcia has not been very good as he has allowed seven runs over 11 innings in his first two starts. Additionally, he has just a 4:4 K:BB ratio while allowing three home runs. 10* (953) San Diego Padres |
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04-17-17 | Pacers v. Cavs -7.5 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a great example of taking advantage of line moves based on what happen in the previous game. We have flourished playing the bounce angle in the NBA playoffs in certain situations as overreaction from the last game is sometimes too much. The Cavaliers won Game One by just one point and nearly lost as Indiana missed a last second shot for the victory and while the Pacers will be out to gain the home court advantage with a win, the Cavaliers will be out to keep it before hitting the road and that is important in this series with the dominant home record on both sides. The bounce angle as mentioned backs the team that did not cover the previous game and is showing a line move based on that and in this case, the Cavaliers are favored by close to a bucket less than they were in Game One so that is where the value aspect comes into play. Cleveland controlled the game the majority of the time on Saturday and was able to withstand a late comeback by Indiana so the goal tonight is to play the same but keep the pedal down while cleaning up the transition game and do a better job from the free throw line. 10* (518) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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