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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-29-18 | Nets v. Knicks -2 | Top | 96-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS for our NBA Monday Supreme Annihilator. Both the Knicks and Nets are riding losing streaks and on paper, it is the former that has been playing much worse. But New York is still favored as it is at home in what is a great contrarian situation. The Knicks opened the season with a win over Atlanta but has since dropped five straight games including the last three by double-digits. We were on them Friday against Golden St. and they were covering the whole game into the fourth quarter then the Warriors went off by closing the game with a 42-9 run while making 17 of their last 21 shots. It was the first bad run at home as three of those five losses have come on the road while the other home defeat was against the Celtics by just a bucket. We won the Nets last night as they stayed within the big number against Golden St. thanks to a big fourth quarter but fell six points short. This could be a letdown spot coming off a game against the Warriors and prior to that, coming off a two-point loss at New Orleans. This is the second time this season that Brooklyn is playing with no rest on the road coming off a home game and the first time it resulted in a 20-point loss at Indiana. Coincidentally, that win at home prior to that was against the Knicks so there is revenge in play tonight as well. Brooklyn is 11-25 ATS in its last 36 road games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games and the Knicks fall into a successful situation where we play on teams in a game involving two teams averaging 102 or more ppg, after three straight losses by 10 points or more. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (708) New York Knicks |
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10-28-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Red Sox pulled off a stunning comeback last night to take a commanding 3-1 lead over Los Angeles and they look to clinch their fourth World Series since 2004. While history is on their side to take it home, they do not have a decidedly big edge tonight. Of the previous 47 times a World Series has been 3-1, the leading team has won the Series 40 times (85.1 percent) but they have won Game Five only 26 times (55.3 percent). With their backs against the wall, the Dodgers will pull out all of the stops tonight to send this series back to Boston and we are getting a great price. In somewhat of a surprising move, Alex Cora named David Price the starter for Game Five. Price will be making the start on three days of rest and inside of that, he made a relief appearance in Game Three, albeit just two-thirds of an inning but he did allow a hit and a walk over 13 pitches. He has made five appearances this postseason, including four starts, going 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA and while he pitched well against the Dodgers in Game Two, he should be seeing a different lineup this time around. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts sat his three top home run hitters and was scrutinized for it. Clayton Kershaw has been a Jekyll and Hyde throughout his postseason career. He allowed five runs in four-plus innings in Game One in Boston which was his second awful postseason start on the road. Pitching at home has been a different story though as he has allowed just run in two starts over 15 innings. 10* (910) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-28-18 | Warriors v. Nets +10.5 | Top | 120-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. We played against Golden St. on Friday and it was looking really good for a little over three quarters and then the Warriors went off by closing the game with an absurd 42-9 run while making 17 of their last 21 shots. Kevin Durant led the charge as he scored 25 of his 41 points in the fourth quarter, turning what was a three-point deficit through three quarters into a 128-100 win over the Knicks. This is what this team is capable of but at the same time, Golden St. can be complacent and goes through the motions at times and it lets teams hang around, especially on the road where it came into Friday with a 1-1 record. The Nets have been decent this season as they are 2-3 with two of those losses coming by a combined five points and both taking place on the road. This is just their second home game of the season and they have been able to step it up against the better teams as they finished last season by going 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record. Brooklyn falls into a spectacular situation where we play against favorites after three consecutive covers as a favorite, with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 from last season. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1996. 10* (502) Brooklyn Nets |
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10-28-18 | Packers +9.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFC Game of the Year. Green Bay heads west following its bye week as it prepares to take on the meat of its schedule. The Packers, namely Aaron Rodgers, will be playing the respect card on Sunday as this line is out of control even if it is against the best team in the NFL at this point. Rodgers has never been an underdog by this many points and in his career, he has been an underdog of six or more points four times and he is a perfect 4-0 ATS. He has a healthy receiving corps this week Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb were back practicing after missing the last game while Davante Adams should be back to 10 percent. Green Bay has gone 10-4-1 ATS when coming off a bye under head coach Mike McCarthy. The Rams are coming off their seventh straight win to open the season including the last three all coming on the road. They snapped a three-game ATS skid with the rout over the 49ers last week, the same 49ers team that nearly pulled off the upset two weeks ago in Green Bay and that is playing into this line. The Los Angeles offense is humming but the defense will again have its hands full on the interior where Rodgers could have a field day in the middle of the field. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 36-15 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (271) Green Bay Packers |
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10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals -3.5 | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Bengals look to right the ship after suffering a pair of one-sided losses in their last two games. The lost to Pittsburgh by a touchdown but they were outgained by 206 yards and last week, they were torched by Kansas City by 35 points while getting outgained by 312 yards. A 4-1 start has been negated the last two weeks and this is a big game to get to 5-3 instead of 4-4 heading into their bye week. The Bengals can refocus on beating a handful of mediocre teams in the next month to rebuild their confidence especially on the defense where Cincinnati is on pace to allow 440 points, the most in 30 years. Tampa Bay is coming off an overtime win over Cleveland last week to improve to 3-3 and it hits the road where the defense has been atrocious as it has allowed an average of more than 40 ppg over the teams three 2018 road games. And they are banged up as the Buccaneers will be without two starting defensive linemen, tackle Gerald McCoy and end Vinny Curry, for a second straight game. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. This situation is 37-14 ATS (72.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (264) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-27-18 | Magic +9.5 v. Bucks | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. Milwaukee improved to 5-0 on the season following a 30-point win at Minnesota last night as the game was over early on as the Timberwolves never led and the Bucks were able to sit their starters early. That is the good news with playing the second of a back-to-back set and because of four straight double-digit wins, they are overpriced tonight. Milwaukee is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games against teams getting outscored by three or more ppg including going 0-9 ATS against teams getting outscored by six or more ppg. Orlando has been hit or miss this season as it is coming off a 14-point loss at home against Portland which was its second loss of the season by double-digits. On the flip side, the Magic have a pair of solid wins over Miami and Boston, the latter coming on the road, while the other loss was just a one-point setback at Philadelphia. The talent on this team is there, they just need to be more consistent and we can expect a big effort tonight after the big loss last time out. The Magic are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and they fall into a great situation where we play on road teams allowing 99 or more ppg on the season going up against an opponent after scoring 110 points or more three straight games. This situation is 134-81 ATS (62.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (717) Orlando Magic |
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10-27-18 | Blackhawks v. Blues -130 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES as part of our NHL Saturday Hat Trick. It has been a rough start to the season for St. Louis as it is ahead of only Los Angeles in the Western Conference with seven points. Three of those points came with overtime losses with two of those coming against Chicago so this third meeting comes with a double-revenge angle. Of their seven losses, five have been by just one goal so the Blues have been close but just not being able to close things out. The Blues are 6-2 in their last eight games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. Chicago has won two straight games and it brings in a 3-0-1 record on the road to St. Louis. The Blackhawks have been one of the pleasant surprises after finishing last season with the third worst record in the Western Conference. Chicago is 9-20 in its last 29 games after having won two of their last three games and it falls into a negative situation where we play against road teams after two straight wins by two goals or more going up against an opponent after a loss by three goals or more in their previous game. This situation is 51-23 (68.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (66) St. Louis Blues |
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10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -2.5 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -114 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the STANFORD CARDINAL for our PAC 12 Game of the Year. Washington St. is coming off a win over Oregon to move to 3-1 in the Pac 12 North and remain a half-game behind Washington for first place. The Cougars have been humming as they have outgained all seven opponents including their game against USC, which was their only loss. Additionally, they are a perfect 7-0 against the number which is keeping this number down. Stanford has been up and down and after back-to-back blowout losses, the Cardinals bounced back with a big road win at Arizona St. last week to also move to 3-1 in the conference making the winner of this game still in the Pac 12 Championship hunt. Stanford will be out for double-revenge after getting blown out here by 26 points two years ago and getting outgained 430-198 last season in Pullman. Stanford is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games against teams averaging 5.9 or more yppl. Meanwhile, Washington St. is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games off two consecutive double-digit conference wins while going 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road road games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game. 10* (162) Stanford Cardinal |
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10-27-18 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -1.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. We lost with Mississippi St. last week and it did not play as bad as the final score shows. the Bulldogs outgained the Tigers by 21 yards but quarterback Nick Fitzgerald had an awful game as he was 8-24 for 59 yards and he threw four interceptions. After they allowed an opening touchdown, the Bulldogs defense tightened up as they allowed just four field goals the rest of the way. They are facing a strong offense but overall, they are allowing just 282.4 ypg while allowing only 4.4 yppl. The Aggies have won three straight games and to their credit, their only two losses have come against Clemson and Alabama so Jimbo Fisher has come in and done a great job. Texas A&M has outgained six of seven opponents and this is another game with a low line based on the Aggies spread success as they are 6-1 against the number. The Bulldogs can keep their defensive momentum and going back, they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games against teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing ypc. 10* (174) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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10-27-18 | BC v. Saskatchewan -4.5 | Top | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Saturday Enforcer. With the Winnipeg win over Calgary last night, all six playoff spots have been secured and now the only thing left is jockeying for positions. It looked as though the West Division was going to be locked up by Calgary but the Stampeders suffered their third straight loss and winning the division is no longer a guarantee. Saskatchewan defeat Calgary last week to take the season series 2-1 which means a tie gives them the division and a spot to host the West Division final on November 18th. In order for this to happen, the Roughriders need to win tonight which is their regular season finale and hope that B.C. can extend the Calgary losing streak to four games next week. That will be pointless if they do not get it done tonight and they come in having won eight of their last 10 games and knowing they are off next week will have then fully fueled tonight. B.C. has won six of its last seven games and it is likely going to head to Hamilton in the crossover game in the postseason. The Lions have had a couple of successful late season pickups as DeVier Posey and Tyrell Sutton have become big additions to the team and make the Lions a serious contender down the stretch as their defense has picked it up considerably in the back half of the season. We cannot ignore the fact they are 2-6 on the road with one of those wins coming at 3-13 Montreal. The Roughriders have covered six of their last seven divisional games while the Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following three or more consecutive wins. 10* (664) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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10-26-18 | Red Sox v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Red Sox up 2-0 in the World Series with a lot of questions surrounding how the Dodgers went about the first two games in Boston. The Dodgers were at a big disadvantage as they faced lefties both times which took their powerful left-handed bats out of the lineup which manager Dave Roberts has been scrutinized for. Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger and Joc Pederson, the top three home run hitters on the teams with a combined 85 home runs during the regular season, all had just three at-bats during the first two games but the lineup will be stacked against right-hander Rick Porcello. The Red Sox will not back down tonight on the road as they have won all five playoff games they have played away from Fenway Park, clinching the American League Division Series at New York and celebrating an American League title at Houston. Overall, they are 26 games above .500 on the road but that is helping keep this line within reason. Porcello pitched well on the road against the Yankees, although he went just five innings but was lit up for four runs in four innings against the Astros where he allowed two home runs. That is a problem as his 27 home runs allowed during the regular season were the 14th most in baseball. Walker Buehler counters for Los Angeles, who has been dominant at home, and while there is pressure, he is not going to feel it. The Dodgers trusted him to start Game 163, a tiebreaker to decide the National League West against the Rockies, and they won. And they trusted him to start Game Seven of the NLCS, and they won that too. Here, we play on National League home favorites of -150 or more that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg and coming off a game where they had four or fewer hits going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better. This situation is 50-13 (79.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-26-18 | Warriors v. Knicks +12.5 | Top | 128-100 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. We are going ultra-contrarian here as the public is not being shy about backing the double-digit road favorites in what looks like a mismatch on paper. The Warriors embark on a three-game east coast roadtrip against arguably three of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference but they are playing the price. After suffering its first loss of the season, Golden St. rebounded with a pair of wins over Phoenix and Washington by 20 and 22 points respectively as the offense shot a combined 54.4 percent from the floor. The Warriors now hit the road where they are 1-1 with those games being decided by a combined three points. The Knicks opened the season with a win over Atlanta but has since dropped their last four games, the final two coming by double digits. The last game was a disaster as the Knicks shot 36 percent from the field against Miami, while allowing the Heat to shoot 48 percent and 45 percent from three-point range, their third time in four games allowing the opponent to shoot better than 47 percent from the field. Three of those four losses have come on the road while the one home defeat was against the Celtics by just a bucket. Going back to last season, the Warriors are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. The Knicks fall into a great contrarian situation as we play against road favorites of 10 or more points that are outscoring their opponents by nine or more ppg going up against an opponent after scoring 90 points or less. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (506) New York Knicks |
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10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES for our ACC Game of the Month. Miami and Boston College come into Friday with identical 5-2 records including 2-1 marks in the ACC so this is a pivotal game for both sides. This is a strength on strength matchup and one that Boston College should have the edge at home. The Eagles are ranked 35th in the nation in total offense, making Boston College the most potent offense Miami has faced this year. It is ranked No. 21 in rushing offense, again, making the Eagles the top-ranked team the Hurricanes have faced that features four players averaging at least 4.9 ypc. One of those returns to the field as the Eagles get running back AJ Dillon back after he missed the last two games with an ankle injury. He leads the team with 652 yards rushing on 6.2 ypc after gaining 1,589 yards on 5.3 ypc last season as a freshman. While the Miami rushing defense is stout, ranked No. 12 in the nation, the Boston College offensive line will pose a big challenge. The Hurricanes are once again making a change at quarterback as Malik Rosier will get the start. This is not a good sing for Miami as Rosier started the first three games of the season and has completed 52 percent of his passes for 781 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. He was replaced by N'Kosi Perry who started the next four games but was pulled in the last game against Virginia after going 3-6 with a pair of picks. Boston College is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread while Miami is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games coming off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite. Additionally, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a road loss, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (116) Boston College Eagles |
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10-26-18 | Lightning v. Golden Knights -100 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS for our NHL Friday Breakaway. Vegas opened the season 1-4 but put together a great defensive effort to win three straight games but that unfortunately came to an end on Wednesday in a shootout loss to Vancouver. The Golden Knights look to bounce back tonight against one of the top teams from the Eastern Conference and they have been lethal in these spots as they are 10-1 against the moneyline in their last 11 games against teams outscoring opponents by 0.65 or more gpg. Additionally, the comfort of home on long homestands have done them good as they are 11-1 against the moneyline in their last 11 home games after playing three consecutive home games. Tampa Bay opened this roadtrip with an overtime loss against Minnesota but has won its last two games against Chicago and Colorado to improve to 6-1-1 on the season. The Lightning have allowed just 18 goals this season which is tied for fewest in the NHL and it will be up to Vegas to get through the special teams as Tampa Bay leads the league in penalty killing at 97 percent, allowing just one goal in 33 chances. The Golden Knights will have a big home ice advantage on Nevada Day with an amped up crowd at a 3:05 local time start. 10* (2) Vegas Golden Knights |
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10-25-18 | Capitals v. Oilers +110 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON OILERS as part of our NHL Thursday Hat Trick. It has been an up and down season for the reigning Stanley Cup champions as Washington is 4-4 and has yet to win consecutive games this season. The Capitals are coming off a 5-2 win over Vancouver on Monday which was the fifth time in their eight games they have tallied five or more goals. It has not done them much good as the defense has been a big letdown. Washington is allowing 3.56 gpg which is seventh highest in the NHL and it is even worse considering the Capitals are not allowing a ton of shots. Additionally, Washington is tied with the Devils and Rangers by allowing 5.00 gpg on the road and going back, Washington is 10-21 in its last 31 road games after scoring five goals or more in two straight games. Edmonton could use some help from that porous defense as it has scored more than three goals only twice in its seven games. The Oilers did score five times in their last game against Pittsburgh which came after getting shut out against Nashville on Saturday. They are averaging just 2.67 gpg at home and while Braden Holtby is considered a top-tier goalie after his incredible run at the end of last season, he is allowing 4.51 gpg on the season, fifth worst among qualified goalies. Here, we play on teams after allowing six goals or more going up against an opponent after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. This situation is 79-49 (61.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (66) Edmonton Oilers |
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10-25-18 | Dolphins v. Texans -7 | Top | 23-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Here we have two teams heading in opposite directions as Houston, after a 0-3 start, has won four straight games to take over the lead in the AFC South while the Dolphins have dropped three of their last four games after a 2-0 start. This is a number larger than we normally prefer to lay but it has not gone south of a touchdown so there is no value loss and laying over a touchdown is validated in this situation. The Texans are where they were expected to be before the season started and even that 0-3 start is not that bad on paper as one loss came at New England by a touchdown while the other two losses were against the Titans and Giants by a combined eight points and they won the yardage battle in both games by a combined 202 total yards. Houston is ranked No. 14 in total defense but it is ranked No. 5 in the more important defensive efficiency category according to Football Outsiders and it has picked it up over the last three games, allowing just 12 ppg. The Texans have not been dominant at home as they have failed to cover their last five games at NRG Stadium, but they welcome the perfect opponent. Miami is a mess right now as not only is it without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, two of the top three receivers were lost last week as Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills, who are tied for the lead in touchdowns with four apiece, both suffered injuries. Brock Osweiler has not looked bad over the last two games but he will be making his first road start and any talk of the revenge narrative because of Houston trading him can be tossed out the window. Going back, Miami is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a loss, losing those games by an average of 15.6 ppg. 10* (104) Houston Texans |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +10.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the GEORGIA SOUTHERN PANTHERS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Appalachian St. is ranked for the first time ever as it crept into the No. 25 spot in the AP Poll but now comes the first real test in a while. It has been an impressive season for the Mountaineers whose only loss came in their season opener against Penn St. in overtime but they are overpriced in this spot by laying doubles on the road. This is a very potent offense that averages 476 ypg and 44.8 ppg but they will be facing their biggest test since opening 3-0 in the Sun Belt Conference. They did suffer a big hit two weeks ago when leading rusher Jalin Moore suffered a dislocated ankle and was lost for the season. While there are capable backups, his 2,839 rushing yards over the last two and a half seasons will be missed here. The Eagles may not be ranked, but their list of victims includes Sun Belt West favorite Arkansas St., and their only loss is to No. 2 Clemson by a 38-7 score. In his first full year at the helm, Chad Lunsford has the Eagles off to their hottest start in recent history, which is even more impressive considering Georgia Southern went 2-10 last season. The Eagles are averaging 276.6 ypg rushing with quarterback Shai Werts leading the team with 542 yards. Running back Wesley Fields has rushed for 472 but is coming off a groin injury that kept him out of last week's 48-31 win over New Mexico St. The good news is that he is listed as probable this week. On the other side. the Georgia Southern defense this season is allowing 15.6 ppg to Sun Belt Conference opponents, and the unit currently sits at No. 24 in the country in scoring defense with 19.3ppg. there is plenty of motivation for the home team as Georgia Southern has not beaten their arch rival since 2014 and has lost six of the last seven to the Mountaineers. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 59-23 ATS (72 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (110) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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10-25-18 | Cavs +8 v. Pistons | Top | 103-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the Cleveland CAVALIERS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. The loss of LeBron James has clearly affected the Cavaliers as they are off to a 0-4 start. They are coming off an awful game against Brooklyn as they lost by 16 points while managing only 86 points on offense. Kevin Love was held to 14 points in 29 minutes, George Hill had seven points and no assists in 25 minutes, while Tristan Thompson shot 1-for-10 from the field. As a team, Cleveland shot just 38.2 percent while going 3-18 from long range and the lone bright spot was rookie Colin Sexton who scored 14 points off the bench and he will be more integrated into the offense. Prior to that, it was a 22-point loss to the Hawks and now we are seeing a significant line inflation after losing the last two games against the number by a combined 49 points. Detroit is off to a 3-0 start including a one-point win over Philadelphia in overtime on Tuesday. While the record is perfect, it has not been a dominating run as the Pistons have won their three games by a combined six points, so as bad as Cleveland has looked, Detroit cannot be trusted laying this big of a number. The Pistons are shooting just 0.1 percent better from the floor than Cleveland while the defense is allowing opponents to shoot 1.7 percent more than the Cavaliers so clearly these teams are more even than the line is telling us. Here, we play on road underdogs after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after three straight wins by six points or less. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (701) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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10-24-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox -135 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. With the Red Sox winning Game One, many will be backing the Dodgers in Game Two, especially those that thought they could sneak out a win last night, but this Boston team is simply too strong at Fenway Park. Boston has owned National League teams at home over the years and it is no accident. Going back to 2015, the Red Sox are an MLB-best 32-8 at Fenway Park against National League teams, including 8-3 this season after last night. Boston's +84 run differential dwarfs that of the closest team, the Astros, at +47. The uniqueness of the park makes a big difference as every Dodger that played in the outfield last night had not played there before. It will be up to David Price to continue to keep the postseason demons away as he is coming off a gem against the Astros where he allowed no runs on three hits in six innings while striking out nine and walking none. His command was spot on as he was able to change speeds to keep the Astros off balance and that is when he is at his best as opposed to trying to blow fastballs by everybody. The Red Sox are 21-6 in his last 27 home starts. The Dodgers are taking a chance with Hyun-Jin Ryu as he has not fared well on the road this season with a 4.63 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in eight starts. He has a 1.15 ERA at home, but it was decided he would get the Game Two start on the road, even though he had an 8.59 ERA in two road starts against the Brewers in the NLCS. The Dodgers are 2-12 in his last 14 road starts against teams with a winning record. Boston is now 17-4 in its last 21 games against National League teams averaging 4.5 or more rpg while going 9-0 in its last eight games against National League starters with a WHIP of 1.15 or better. The same situation from last night is in play as we play against National League road underdogs that are allowing 4.0 or fewer rpg going up against an opponent outscoring opponents by 1.0 or more rpg on the season. This situation is 104-41 (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (904) Boston Red Sox |
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10-24-18 | Mavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA HAWKS as part of our NBA Wednesday Trifecta. Dallas opened the season with a 21-point loss in Phoenix but recovered with a pair of wins against Minnesota and Chicago. Both of those victories however were at home and now the Mavericks come in as road favorites, at least as of Wednesday morning, and this is not ideal as they are 9-33 since the start of last season on the highway. Dallas is far from being at full strength as Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki and Devin Harris are all out for tonight. the Mavericks are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against teams allowing 110 or more ppg while also going 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games when the line is between +3 and -3. Atlanta is coming off a convincing road win over Cleveland on Sunday and tonight will be the first home game of the season for the Hawks as they are the last team in the NBA yet to play a home game. The good news for Atlanta from an injury standpoint is that it welcomes back center Dewayne Dedmon who missed the first three games due to a fractured left ankle and his return comes at a key time facing DeAndre Jordan, who became the first player in Mavericks team history to record three straight double-doubles to open a season. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after scoring 110 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (504) Atlanta Hawks |
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10-24-18 | Maple Leafs +111 v. Jets | Top | 4-2 | Win | 111 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. The Maple Leafs are 6-3-0 in their first nine games but they are coming off a pair of losses against Pittsburgh and St. Louis to close their three-game homestand. Their offensive output in those past two games, one goal, is their lowest in back-to-back games since last December. Overall, the offense has been sparked by a hot start from Austin Matthews, who leads the NHL with 10 goals. The Maple Leafs are leading the NHL with 21 goals while playing five-on-five, while the Jets scored 15 in similar circumstances. Jets winger Patrik Laine, who led the team last season with 44 goals, has just three goals and five points in nine games and has yet to score at even strength. Toronto has 234 scoring chances to the Jets 164. The Jets will present another formidable foe for the Maple Leafs, especially playing at home at Bell MTS Place where they have yet to lose a game in regulation in six outings and are 37-7-3 during the regular season since the start of last year. Winnipeg has won three straight heading into tonight but if there is any cause for concern, only two of its six wins have come against teams with a winning record. Toronto goalie Frederik Andersen is responsible for the two most recent losses but he might be heartened to know that the Jets are one of four NHL clubs that have not beaten him in regulation in his career as he is 6-0-1 against Winnipeg. Her we play on teams against the moneyline after two straight losses by two goals or more going up against an opponent after scoring five goals or more in two straight games. This situation is 21-8 (72.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (1) Toronto Maple Leafs |
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10-23-18 | Kings +11 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-126 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. Denver is coming off an upset over Golden St. on Sunday to move to 3-0 on season and has been one of the early surprises through the first week. The Nuggets just missed out on the playoffs last season as they finished a game behind Minnesota for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Known for the potent offense, Denver is doing it with defense as it is allowing a league-low 95.7 ppg. With the new rules in place, we do not see this continuing and the Nuggets are in for a tough matchup tonight. on top of the upset win over the Warriors, the Nuggets next game is at the Lakers so a lookahead is more than possible. Sacramento is second in the NBA in scoring at 125.7 ppg, a staggering development for a team that finished last with an average of 98.8 ppg last season. The Kings have piled up the points despite starting the season against three of the top teams in the Western Conference as they scored 117 against Utah, 129 against New Orleans and 131 against Oklahoma City. This is no fluke as they have unleashed an up-tempo style designed to suit a young, athletic roster. This of course has hurt the defense but with points spreads big like this, the backdoor is always wide open. Sacramento falls into a great contrarian situation where we play against favorites that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season last season, after three or more consecutive wins. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (705) Sacramento Kings |
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10-23-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox -143 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The World Series opens with a classic pitching duel pitting the two best lefties in the game squaring off and based on splits, the Red Sox have the significant edge. Boston finished the regular season 57-24 at home which was the best home record in baseball and followed that up with an average 2-2 mark at Fenway Park to open the postseason. The Red Sox are hitting .284 during the postseason against left-handed pitching while the Dodgers are hitting just .207. Boston is 16-4 in its last 20 games against National League teams averaging 4.5 or more rpg while going 8-0 in its last eight games against National League starters with a WHIP of 1.15 or better. Chris Sale gets the Game One start and after an impressive showing against the Yankees in Game One of the ALDS, his velocity and command were lacking in his no-decision in Game One in the ALCS against the Astros. It is safe to say that he was bothered by the stomach virus that kept him out for the rest of the series and now he some in rested and fresh. He made 11 starts on five or more days' of rest during the regular season, going 6-2 with a 1.41 ERA. Clayton Kershaw will be making his first ever start at Fenway Park and he could be in for a tough inaugural outing. He is coming off a solid outing against the Brewers in his last start but it is no secret he had had his postseason struggles. He has a 4.09 ERA and has allowed 19 home runs over 22 starts. Here, we play against National League road underdogs that are allowing 4.0 or fewer rpg going up against an opponent outscoring opponents by 1.0 or more rpg on the season. This situation is 103-41 (71.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (902) Boston Red Sox |
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10-23-18 | Sharks +116 v. Predators | Top | 5-4 | Win | 116 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN JOSE SHARKS as part of our NHL Tuesday Hat Trick. Both San Jose and Nashville enter Tuesday with solid momentum as the Sharks have won two straight games while the Predators have won five straight games and are 7-1 on the season. San Jose came into the season as one of the Stanley Cup favorites but it has been an uneven start with a 4-4 record. The Sharks allowed 11 goals in their first three games but have given up only 10 goals in their last five games and they have dominated for the most part, outshooting opponents by 12.4 spg which is second in the league. Going back, San Jose is 16-4 in its last 20 games against the moneyline coming off a home win scoring four or more goals. Nashville is tied with Colorado atop the Western Conference with 14 points and are relatively short favorites tonight which is putting the public on their side. The Predators are doing it with defense, allowing three goals or less in all eight of their games but this is the toughest test of the season against an offense that will be peppering the goal. Nashville is 1-7 in its last eight games against the moneyline coming off a road shutout win. Here, we play on underdogs against the moneyline off a home win by three goals or more going up against an opponent off a road win where they shut out their opponent. This situation is 28-14 (66.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (59) San Jose Sharks |
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10-22-18 | Giants v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Monday Night Game of the Month. The Giants have had extra time to prepare for this Monday night game as they played last Thursday and were hammered by the Eagles by 21 points. That extra time means little as New York is going nowhere fast and has been stuck in neutral all season. It is three games behind the Redskins in the NFC East and this could very well be the last stand for Eli Manning, who is putting up decent numbers but they are not translating into wins. The Giants need to give Manning time to throw, and he might have it against Atlanta, which has not had much of a pass rush this season. Only four teams have fewer than the 10 sacks the Falcons have recorded this season. But New York can help add to that number as the Giants continue to make changes along what has been a porous offensive line for the past two seasons, benching disappointing right guard Patrick Omameh, in favor of backup interior lineman Spencer Pulley. While the Falcons sack numbers are low, the Giants have just seven and that is tied with the Raiders for fewest in the league. New York is ranked No. 27 in defensive efficiency and faces a potent offense where Matt Ryan has been on fire of late, throwing for 1,433 yards, 12 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last four games. This can be considered a must win for Atlanta heading into its bye week as a couple of late blown leads could come back to haunt them, but the Falcons are a couple plays from being 4-2 or even 5-1. And they have won two of three inside the NFC South, so they still control their own destiny. The Falcons have played a relatively tough schedule as they have faced only one team ranked outside the top 16 and that resulted in a win over Tampa Bay last week. Here, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced no turnovers going up against an opponent after four consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (476) Atlanta Falcons |
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10-22-18 | Pacers v. Wolves -2 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Monday Enforcer. Indiana is off to a 2-1 start, winning the two games by 28 and 20 points against Memphis and Brooklyn respectively while losing to Milwaukee by 17 points. The victory over Brooklyn on Saturday was impressive as Indiana shot 55 percent, had eight players in double figures and led by as many as 29 while scoring 30 points off 20 turnovers. The Pacers also registered 58 points in the paint and were 16 of 24 from three-point range. That loss against the Bucks was the Pacers only road game thus far and this is usually the trend early in the season for NBA teams as they still are not accustomed to playing well on the highway. So far this season, road teams are 14-25. Minnesota is 1-2 to start the season, with both losses coming on the road one the one victory taking place at home against Cleveland by eight points. Jimmy Butler sat in the last game at Dallas on Saturday but will be back in the lineup tonight as his defense needs to come out along with everyone else. Through three games, Minnesota is allowing 125 ppg, owns one of the worst defensive ratings in the NBA with a 121.7 and is allowing opponents to shoot 47.2 percent from the floor. The offense has been just as good however as the Timberwolves are averaging 125 ppg on 48.5 percent shooting and their 1.161 offensive efficiency ranking is third best in the NBA. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after scoring 110 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (506) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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10-22-18 | Hurricanes -147 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA HURRICANES for our NHL Monday Breakaway. After opening the season with seven straight losses, Detroit finally got off the schneid on Saturday as it went to Florida and won in overtime after blowing a 3-2 in regulation with just over a minute remaining. To their credit, the Red Wings have played a difficult schedule as six of their first eight games have taken place on the road. The biggest issue is on defense as Detroit has been outshot in all but one game and it is allowing 33.5 shots per game, which is 10th most in the league. The Red Wings are allowing 4.4 gpg and that .869 save percentage is second worst in the NHL. They are 0-9 in their last nine games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game. That most recent game for Carolina came on Saturday as it lost at home against Colorado 3-1, which made it three straight losses for the Hurricanes after posting four consecutive wins prior to this. The offense tallied 18 goals in the final three games of the winning streak but it has registered only four goals over the last three games but tonight presents the opportunity to get back on track. Carolina is averaging 42.1 shots per game and it has a +17.3 shot differential and both of those lead the league. The Hurricanes are 4-0 in their last four games against teams with a losing record and here, we play on road favorites against the moneyline off a home loss by two goals or more, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 40-9 (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (3) Carolina Hurricanes |
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10-21-18 | Rockets v. Clippers +1.5 | Top | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. This line came out late due to the possible suspension of Chris Paul following the altercation last night with Rajon Rondo and Brandon Ingram although he was not the instigator for the latter. This is the second game of a back-to-back for Houston but the good news is that there is no travel involved but this is a tough spot coming off that emotional win last night against the Lakers. It has not been a great start for the Rockets as despite averaging 118 ppg through the first two games, they are shooting just 44.1 percent from the floor. The real issue is on the other side as Houston is allowing opponents to shoot 50.5 percent and while the season may be young, it is ranked No. 22 in defensive efficiency after finishing last season No. 5 in that category. The Clippers are also 1-1 to start the season following a 16-point win over Oklahoma City on Friday. They lost their season opener against Denver despite outshooting the Nuggets from the floor as free throws were the difference with Denver holding a 33-20 edge from the stripe. The defense has been solid both games against two very strong offense as Los Angeles is allowing just 36.8 percent shooting while its 0.958 defensive efficiency rating is second in the league. 10* (708) Los Angeles Clippers |
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10-21-18 | Lightning -140 v. Blackhawks | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Sunday Breakaway. Tampa Bay hit the road for the first time this season last night and built a 3-1 over Minnesota but allowed three straight goals before tying the game late in the third period. The Lightning eventually lost in overtime which snapped a three-game winning streak but we expect a rebound tonight. Chicago is off to a 4-1-2 start and is tied for fifth place in the Western Conference in what has been a dramatic fall for the 2015 Stanley Cup Champions. The Blackhawks went from 109 points in 2016-17 where they were swept by Nashville in the first round of the playoffs to 76 points last season, the third fewest points in the league. They have been fortunate as three of their wins have come in overtime so the record is a bit deceiving but what is not deceiving is their lack of power play ability as they are just 2-23 on the man advantage, good for third worst in the NHL. That is a real problem here as Tampa is the only team in the league to not allow a power play goal, stopping all 25 opportunities. The Blackhawks are 1-12 in their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Lightning are 21-8 in their last 29 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (53) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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10-21-18 | Cowboys v. Redskins | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. If there was any question that the Dallas offense was struggling, last week should have answered that. Or at least many will think that but that is not the case as one week does not make a cure but that is what the public saw and now the line reflects that. The Cowboys improved to 3-3 with the victory but the venue has played a big part as they are 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. Dallas is 7-23 ATS in its last 30 road games after allowing nine points or less last game. Washington is coming off an impressive win over Carolina although it was outgained and took advantage of three Panthers turnovers. The defense is no joke as the Redskins are ranked No. 5 overall and No. 8 in scoring defense and this is with that New Orleans debacle from a couple weeks ago. They should be out for some payback as Dallas has won the last four meetings in this series that has always been notoriously close. Going back, the Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (472) Washington Redskins |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Saints come in red hot having won four straight games following a season opening loss against Tampa Bay but they caught a momentum killer with a bye last week. The New Orleans offense is firing on all cylinders right now but it has yet to face a defense this strong, especially on the road where it has faced scoring defenses ranked No. 31 and No. 24. New Orleans is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games. The Ravens are coming off a 21-0 shutout over Tennessee in sloppy conditions but even with that, this is a very strong defense. Baltimore is ranked No. in the NFL in both total defense and scoring defense as it has held all but one opponent to 14 or fewer points. The offense is not too shabby either as the Ravens are No. 9 in total offense and No. 12 in scoring offense and they face off against a Saints defense that is in the bottom third in both categories. The Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (470) Baltimore Ravens |
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10-20-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +108 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Brewers put up four first inning runs last night and cruised to an easy victory to force a Game Seven in this NLCS. Wade Miley gave them what they needed which was an extended outing and the Milwaukee bullpen is in great shape for tonight. The Dodgers are 2-3 on the road in the postseason while Milwaukee is 4-1 at home yet Los Angeles comes in as the favorite, albeit slight, as the public will again be on the road team. This is a rematch of the Game Three pitching matchup that was won by the Brewers 4-0 and that was in Los Angeles. Jhoulys Chacin gets the ball for Milwaukee and he will likely be on a short leash with the magnitude of what is at stake coupled with the strong Milwaukee bullpen. But, he might not get in early trouble as he has been outstanding as he has not allowed a run across 10.1 innings this October, the workload split between two starts. He shut out the Dodgers in 5.1 innings in his last outing which was impressive considering he allowed eight runs in 4.1 innings there just two months prior. Still, he could get an early hook as the Brewers may turn to Josh Hader which is not a bad thing at all. Walker Buehler has incredible stuff but the postseason pressure has mounted and it will be even more so in Game Seven that determines a trip to the World Series. He struggled against Milwaukee at home where he is most comfortable as four of his innings were scoreless, but he also allowed four extra-base hits and all factored in the scoring. He struggled in Atlanta in his previous start and he has now allowed nine runs in 12 innings in the postseason. 10* (962) Milwaukee Brewers |
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10-20-18 | Ohio State v. Purdue +12.5 | Top | 20-49 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. This is one of the biggest games for Purdue in recent memory as it has been a while since the Boilermakers have been featured on a nationally televised nighttime game. They opened the season with three straight losses but those came by a total of eight points so instead of sitting at 3-3, Purdue could very well be 6-0 at this point. The offense is rolling along with the passing game leading the way but they also possess a pair of backs that is going to present matchup problems for Ohio St. With the Buckeyes struggling in pass defense, they will also have to deal with two very talented runners in the backfield. Purdue has 24 plays of 30 or more yards and Ohio St. is No. 106 in the country in allowing plays of 40 or more yards. Ohio St. is 7-0 but it has struggled in its two road games as TCU kept it close most of the game and it narrowly escaped Penn St. The Buckeyes also feature a strong passing attack but the Boilermakers defensive backs have only allowed two passing touchdowns so far this season. Purdue falls into a contrarian situation where we play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are outgaining their opponents by 125 or more ypg, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 47-17 ATS (73.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (334) Purdue Boilermakers |
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10-20-18 | Mississippi State +7 v. LSU | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -129 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. We won with LSU last week as it upset Georgia and it remains home on upset alert. The Tigers lost the previous week against Florida for its first defeat of the season and they have to avoid a letdown here. The public is all over LSU this week after that big upset as they are seeing a line that is considered shorter than it should be. For LSU, the Tigers will look to establish a balanced attack against the Bulldogs, much like they did against Georgia, finishing with 275 rushing yards and 200 passing yards but it will not be easy. The Bulldogs are also coming off an upset of their own as they defeated Auburn at home by 14 points as underdogs but the big difference is that they are coming off a bye week so there is no chance of a letdown. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and running back Kylin Hill stole the show, rushing for 195 yards and 126 yards, respectively and the Tigers linebackers and secondary will be tested by Fitzgerald's ability to turn busted plays into first downs. Here, we play on road underdogs that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against a team averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg, after gaining 6.0 or more ypc last game. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (403) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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10-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards +1 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON WIZARDS for our NBA Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Toronto is off to a 2-0 start and it produced a statement win last night as it rallied from an early deficit to defeat the Celtics by 12 points in a matchup of the likely top two teams in the Eastern Conference. Both wins have come by 12 points, the first coming against Cleveland, and both came at home so this will be the first road game of the season for the Raptors. The chemistry with Kawhi Leonard is already in place as Toronto has a ridiculous 2.05 assist/turnover ratio but that is not going to hold up. Washington is a team that is a mystery despite plenty of talent as it has not met expectations over the last few years. The Wizards opened the season with a disappointing loss at home against Miami by a point despite outshooting the Heat 46.9 percent to 39.2 percent. They were crushed on the boards 55-40 including a 22-7 disadvantage on the offensive glass which led to numerous second chance points for Miami. We can expect a raucous atmosphere at Capital One Arena as it was the Raptors that ended the Wizards season a year ago as they lost in six games in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The final loss was a Game Six defeat on this floor by 10 points as Toronto outscored Washington 29-14 in the final quarter so revenge is definitely in play tonight. 10* (502) Washington Wizards |
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10-20-18 | UTSA v. Southern Miss -16 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Southern Mississippi fell to 2-3 on the season after its second consecutive loss last week. The first loss was a respectable 11-point loss at Auburn but last week, they went to North Texas and lost by 23 points so they will be out for a big win as they return home. They are 2-1 with the lone loss coming by a point against UL-Monroe which was attributed to four turnovers. UTSA had a three-game winning streak snapped with a 31-3 home loss against Louisiana Tech but that winning streak cannot be taken too seriously. Two wins were against the two worst teams in C-USA while the other victory came against the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Roadrunners were actually outgained in two of those victories and on the season, they are getting outgained by an average of 115.4 ypg. Here, we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 24-2 ATS (92.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons with the average margin of victory being 26 ppg. 10* (394) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles |
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10-20-18 | Utah State v. Wyoming +15.5 | Top | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our Underdog Game of the Year. Wyoming has lost three straight games and five of its last six and it is getting closer to missing out on a bowl game. The recent schedule has been tough as the Cowboys faced Boise St. and lost by 20 points then had to travel to Hawaii where they played a competitive game but fell short and had to turn around to travel to Fresno St. last week where they were overmatched. They are back home and in a great contrarian situation. Utah St. lost its season opener at Michigan St. by just seven points and it has rolled over its last five opponents. The Aggies have covered all six games this season which is inflating this line and while they defeated BYU in their last road game by 25 points, they outgained the Cougars by just 27 yards as they took advantage of three turnovers. Wyoming falls into a great contrarian situation where we play on team after five or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 35-10 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (360) Wyoming Cowboys |
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10-20-18 | Devils v. Flyers +100 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA FLYERS as part of our NHL Saturday Hat Trick. We played against New Jersey on Thursday as it lost at home against Colorado and while this typically would be a good bounce back opportunity, this is a unique situation this late into the season. The Devils opened the season with a neutral ice game against Edmonton and then came back to the U.S. and played their next four games at home making this their first true road game of the season. Going back, the Devils are 19-40 in their last 59 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Philadelphia is coming off a loss on Thursday as well as it lost in Columbus to fall to 3-4 on the season. It is imperative to win the special teams in this matchup as the Flyers have gone three straight games without a power play goal while New Jersey has scored at least one in all five games while allowing just two all season. Here, we play on home teams when the mone line is -100 to -150 that are getting outscored by 0.2 or more gpg in the third period, after allowing five goals or more two straight games. This situation is 52-18 (74.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (2) Philadelphia Flyers |
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10-19-18 | Air Force -10 v. UNLV | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our MWC Game of the Month. The points at home look very tempting in this spot but UNLV is at a severe disadvantage in the most significant areas in this matchup. The Rebels opened the season 2-2 with quarterback Armani Rogers behind center and he is one of the most physically talented quarterbacks in the MWC. However, he suffered a significant toe injury in the loss to Arkansas St. and has not played since and it has showed. Though the Rebels lead the conference in rushing offense at 257.2ypg, Rogers ranks second on the team with 488 rushing yards with an impressive average of 6.87 ypc and his absence is striking. UNLV has been outrushed by 276 yards over the last two games and has been beaten by 36 and 31 points. The Rebels have rushed for a combined 197 yards on 75 carries (2.6 ypc) in those games and that will not do the job here against the Falcons which are ranked second in the MWC and eighth in the country having held opponents to 101.2 rushing ypg on 3.2 ypc. They need to load up and stop running back Lexington Thomas, who is banged up with a concussion. The Rebels have had to resort to passing the ball more with Max Gilliam at quarterback and it has not gone well. He was sacked seven times last week and overall, UNLV has averaged 8.9 yards to go on third down, 126th nationally, and their third-down Success Rate is 127th (29 percent). On the other side, Air Force also relies on the rushing game as it is averaging 248.3 ypg and while its quarterback situation is nearly as bad with injuries, the Falcons do not rely on a lot of production from the quarterback. UNLV is ranked last in the MWC and No. 105 in the nation, allowing 199.0 ypg. Here, we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 35 or more ppg, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 44-15 ATS (74.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (309) Air Force Falcons |
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10-19-18 | Edmonton +1.5 v. BC | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON ESKIMOS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. The West Division playoff race is heating up and this game tonight will go a long way in determining the outcomes. Edmonton got back to .500 with a win over Ottawa last week which snapped a three-game losing skid and kept its playoff hopes alive. It was obviously a big win for the standings but the performance is something they can carry forward. The Eskimos did not allow a sack which gave quarterback Mike Reilly an opportunity to get back to his normal ways. It was a big bounce-back performance by an Eskimos pass protection that surrendered 11 sacks in their three previous outings, after averaging just two sacks a game over their previous 12. This is a must win for the Eskimos as a loss puts them at 8-9 which would be a game and a half behind idle Winnipeg and the only way to make the playoffs would to have Winnipeg lose against Calgary next week and then defeat the Blue Bombers in the season finale in Week 21 as they would own the tiebreaker. A victory tonight gives then a little breathing room. B.C. is coming off an upset win at Calgary, handing the Stampeders their first home loss of the season. The playoff situation for the Lions is simple, if they win tonight they are in and while things look good, should B.C. lose out and it is out of the playoffs if Edmonton also wins against Winnipeg. The Lions have won five of the last six games as they have been one of the hotter teams in the league but they have not been overly dominant as they have been outgained in half of those games. B.C. is 6-1 at home but it is getting outgained by an average of 25.6 ypg which is telling of the truer story going on. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss as a favorite, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (653) Edmonton Eskimos |
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10-19-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +103 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 103 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. This has been a very even NLCS with the Dodgers having gotten the majority of the breaks but certainly nothing substantial. Based on this line, Milwaukee is getting no credit for its home field where it is 54-31 on the season and its 51 home wins were tied with the Cubs for most in the National League. Pitching has not been the problem for the Brewers in this series. Their starters have a 1.29 ERA through the first five games against the Dodgers although that is in limited action but overall, Brewers pitchers have a 3.02 ERA and a .220 average against, and the Dodgers have a 2.81 ERA and a .219 average against so it is pretty even. The difference has been in the clutch which can easily shift. Los Angeles is 10-for-43 with runners in scoring position and an .807 OPS after the sixth inning compared to the Brewers which are 5-for-35 with runners in scoring position and a .592 OPS after the sixth inning. With two one-run losses, Milwaukee could easily be up 3-2 in this series instead of needing to win the final two games to make it to the World Series. Wade Miley will be making his second straight start after getting pulled in Game Five after facing one batter where he issued a walk. That was the plan and now he will be asked to stretch it out. When allowed to go longer, Miley has been great this October as he is unscored upon across 10.1 innings, including 5.2 innings against the Dodgers in Game Two. Hyun-Jin Ryu was average in Game Two, allowing six hits and two runs in 4.1 innings. He has not been great on the road in limited action all season as he has a 3.66 ERA in 32 innings where he has allowed seven home runs. The Dodgers are 2-11 in his last 13 road starts against teams with a winning record while the Brewers are 8-0 in their last eight games following an off day. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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10-19-18 | Knicks v. Nets -3 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS for our NBA Friday Supreme Annihilator. The Nets dropped their season opener by three points in Detroit and it was a pretty solid effort considering they played without DeMarre Carroll, Allen Crabbe and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Brooklyn only lost by three points despite going 5-27 (18.5 percent) from long range as it was able to attack the rim for easy baskets, namely from Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert, who helped the team shoot 64 percent from two. The Nets got crushed down low as they had no answers for Pistons starters Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin who combined for 50 points and 28 rebounds but they do not have to worry about that tonight. New York is coming off a season opening blowout win over Atlanta by 19 points but it was not overly dominating as shooting percentages were the same with the difference being 24 turnover from the Hawks. The Knicks hit the road where they were 10-31 last season which was tied for the third worst record in the Eastern Conference. Winning consecutive games was a struggle and it was even more of a struggle in the home and road spots as New York was 2-8 last season on the road following a win at home. While the Knicks did win all four meetings with the Nets last season, they did so with Kristaps Porzingis active for all four games and he scored at least 26 points in three of the four outings against Brooklyn. 10* (704) Brooklyn Nets |
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10-19-18 | Panthers +155 v. Capitals | Top | 6-5 | Win | 155 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the FLORIDA PANTHERS for our NHL Friday Breakaway. The Panthers entered the 2018-19 season with high expectations after missing the playoffs a season ago as they were inconsistent enough to end up a point short of the postseason. Four games in and they do not have a victory but it certainly is not because of a lack of competing as two losses have been by a single goal while the other two have come in a shootout. Three of those have come against future playoff teams while the other came against surprisingly good Vancouver so the schedule has been challenging along the way. The Capitals stopped a two-game skid with a 4-3 overtime win against the visiting Rangers on Wednesday night as it continues to be an inconsistent season for the reining Stanley Cup Champions. Special teams will be big for Florida as Washington has scored nine power-play goals in six games but have scored just two even strength goals in its last three games. The Panthers have been solid in the penalty kill, allowing just three goals in 12 man down situations. That 12 is key as it is the fewest in the NHL so Florida does not give opponents many opportunities and that is big in this spot as Washington is second in the NHL in power play percentage and is tied for first with nine power play goals. Here, we play on teams against the moneyline after three straight losses by one goal or extra time going up against an opponent after playing a game where seven or more total goals were scored. This situation is 25-8 (75.8 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (51) Florida Panthers |
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10-18-18 | Lakers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS for our NBA Thursday Star Attraction. The Blazers enter the 2018-19 season with virtually the same rotation and while that means likely not challenging Golden St. and Houston, it does mean they have a chance to repeat in the Northwest Division. 2017-18 was a bittersweet experience for the Blazers, who were left to wonder how far they could go with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum hauling the load since they won the division but were swept in the first round of the playoffs by New Orleans. Portland lost 20 percent of its three-point shooting to free agency but they signed Seth Curry and Nik Stauskas with the former being a real intriguing option as Curry missed most of last season and is a 43.2 percent long range shooter. The Blazers closed last season 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 home games with this always being a solid home court edge. The public is lining up on the Lakers and why not? LeBron James is now in Los Angeles and they are getting points to what is considered a middling Western Conference team. While the Lakers have potential, it could take this team a while to come together with James trying to work with his new roster. The biggest question is how the young core will work with the signings of Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, Michael Beasley and JaVale McGee who all have unique personalities. We will take the team that has the better chemistry at this point at a short price. 10* (506) Portland Trail Blazers |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Arizona returns home following a two-game roadtrip where it split with San Francisco and Minnesota and looks to grab its first win at State Farm Stadium after starting the season 0-3. The Cardinals did look good in its last two home games, losing to Chicago and Seattle by a combined five points and Thursday presents a good opportunity to get the offense going. Arizona is dead last in the NFL in total offense and second to last in scoring offense but it has faced some strong defenses with four teams ranked at No. 11 or better in total defense and the other two coming in at No. 16 and No. 19. Denver will be the worst defense the Cardinals have faced and by a wide margin. The Broncos are near the bottom in numerous defensive categories and while they have faced the Rams and Chiefs, they have struggled against the rest of the schedule as well. In their last game against Minnesota, the Cardinals may have found something on offense they can use against the Broncos defense. The Cardinals used a hurry-up, no-huddle offense successfully, resulting in their one touchdown on offense in the fourth quarter and quarterback Josh Rosen looked comfortable which is no surprise since he has the on-huddle at UCLA. Their 302 offensive plays are the fewest by any team through that same time span since 2005 so the defense has been on the field for way too long. Despite that, he Arizona defense has not been horrible based on the schedule it has played and it will face a Broncos offense that has been inconsistent this season. The Cardinals are ranked No. 8 in defensive yppl at 5.4 despite being dead last in time of possession percentage and if they could keep that unit off the field, they could be even better. The Broncos are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (302) Arizona Cardinals |
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10-18-18 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -14 | Top | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The bad news for Arkansas St. is that it is 0-2 in the Sun Belt Conference. The good news is that both losses came against Georgia Southern and Appalachian St., the two top teams in the SBC East Division and the Red Wolves reside in the much weaker West Division and if they win out, they will be in the Sun Belt Conference Championship no matter what any other team does. The last two losses were painful in that both were winnable as they lost to the Eagles in the final seconds and against the Mountaineers, the were outgained by just 54 yards but three interceptions and a 3-17 third down conversion rate killed them. The offense is better than what was on display the last two games and they will face one of the worst defenses in the nation as Georgia St. is allowing 491.3 ypg which is No. 119 in the country. The Panthers have allowed 543, 679, 528 and 554 yards in four of their games so if the Red Wolves are to break out, this is the game to do it. They have made some changes on offense as select offensive packages were simplified to boost confidence and to limit excessive thinking. Creating more one-on-one matchups for their offensive skill players, something the Red Wolves have found as their offensive strength, has become prioritized even more. They welcome the Sun Belt's worst scoring offense as the Panthers 22.3 ppg is No. 115 in the country. Georgia St. did put up 46 points against UL-Monroe but has scored no more than 24 points in any of its other five games, averaging just 17.6 ppg. Arkansas St. is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games against teams allowing 31 or more while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games off a home loss. Additionally, we play on home teams after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc last game going up against an opponent after allowing 5.5 or more rushing ypc in two straight games. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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10-18-18 | Penguins +116 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 3-0 | Win | 116 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS as part of our NHL Thursday Hat Trick. This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Toronto goalie Frederik Anderson and even if he is able to go, he has not been effective this season with a 3.02 GAA and .899 save percentage. He has gone 4-1 thanks to a potent offense behind him as Toronto has averaged 5.4 gpg during its five-game winning streak. The Maple Leafs lead the Eastern Conference with 12 points, three points ahead of both Montreal and Carolina. They are coming off a 4-1 home win over Los Angeles on Monday following a four-game road sweep and in three home games, they are getting outshot 31.3-29.3. It has been a slow start for Pittsburgh as it has lost two straight games in extra time and those were against teams the Penguins had no business losing to. A 3-2 loss to Vancouver in their most recent game was bad as they managed only 28 shots and since putting up 41 shots in their opener, they have averaged only 25 shots per game over their last four games. The Penguins are 9-2 in their last 11 games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game and with this being their first game as an underdog, we will grab the value spot in what should be a solid bounce back effort for Pittsburgh. 10* (1) Pittsburgh Penguins |
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10-17-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -146 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Boston reclaimed home field advantage with an 8-2 win on Tuesday behind a gem from Nathan Eovaldi. Now it is up to the Astros to take home field back and most importantly, avoid a 3-1 hole heading into Game Five on Thursday. The game was close through seven innings, but the Red Sox posted five runs in the eighth inning, breaking it open and seizing back the momentum with two straight wins. The Astros loss at home in Game Three was only their second in their past 12 playoff games at Minute Maid Park since the start of last season. The Astros are 7-0 in their last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Charlie Morton has been the forgotten man in this deep Astros rotation but he has a chance to show what he is capable of tonight. He pitched in the regular-season finale against the Orioles and worked just three innings by design, capping an odd final month that saw him limited to 15 innings in four starts because of lingering right shoulder discomfort. This time of year, rest is your best friend and Morton has plenty of it. He is 9-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 16 home starts. Rick Porcello has made one start and two relief appearances and he has been solid, allowing just one run over 6.2 innings but he has struck out only three. He has pitched three times against the Astros this season, going 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA. Here, we play against road underdogs with a moneyline of +100 to +150 with a winning percentage of .620 or better after having won three of their last four games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 173-88 (66.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (914) Houston Astros |
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10-17-18 | Blues +105 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. After finishing 14th in the Eastern Conference a year ago with just 71 points, the Canadiens are off to a surprising 3-1-1 start this season. They have won two straight games, the first time they have won consecutive games since March 2 of last season, snapping a six-game losing streak following a victory. The offense has been a big difference as Montreal ranked 29th in offense last season, averaging 2.52 gpg, but following their outburst against the Red Wings where they tallied seven goals, they are averaging 3.4 gpg and currently rank 13th. However, they did average 2.50 gpg in their first four games so we can not get too excited. St. Louis has dropped four of its first five games but two of those were in overtime and another by a single goal. The Blues have enjoyed ample firepower up front, with 15 goals in their five games but the defense has been a surprising letdown as their 4.00 GAA is fourth worst in the NHL. St. Louis received some good news Tuesday when forward Jaden Schwartz returned to practice after missing two games with a bruised foot and he is expected to join David Perron and Brayden Schenn on the top line tonight. Although the Blues have struggled to start the year, they still possess a solid core of veteran players who could turn the corner at any time and the feeling is that it happens tonight. Here, we play against home teams when the moneyline is -100 to -150 that are outscoring their opponents by 0.5 or more gpg, after playing a game where nine or more total goals were scored. This situation is 78-52 (60 percent) since 1996. 10* (53) St. Louis Blues |
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10-17-18 | Bucks -3 v. Hornets | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. Milwaukee put a scare into the Celtics in the first round of the NBA playoffs last season as it took Boston to seven games and showed the future is bright for the Bucks. They fired Jason Kidd early in the season and used an interim coach for the rest of the season but they were able to sway Mike Budenholzer away from Atlanta and he should fit in well. With Giannis Antetokounmpo along with Khris Middleton, the Bucks had a solid two-man tandem and they were aided by Eric Bledsoe who assumed the starting point guard spot. Milwaukee brought in depth down low so it should improve upon its 44-38 record from last season and that first round loss will have them fueled early on. Charlotte failed to make the playoffs once again as it finished 10 games under .500 and it did not make a big splash in free agency so this is a team with a lot of questions still. The Hornets have numerous big money contracts that are tied to little production which did not allow them to go out and find someone to compliment Kemba Walker. Charlotte was average at home last season at 21-20 and this has not ben a good role as the Hornets have gone 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as home underdogs including a 1-8 ATS record last season. 10* (703) Milwaukee Bucks |
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10-16-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -148 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers failed to come through for us last night as they now have given home field advantage back to the Brewers after getting shut out 4-0. The offense had been rolling along and the key tonight for Los Angeles is to get out to a strong early start since it does have a significant pitching edge tonight. The Dodgers have been shutout four times since May 8th and they have bounced with a win in their next game all four times, averaging 5.5 rpg in the process. Additionally, the Dodgers are 7-0 in their last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Milwaukee has lost only once September 19th so stepping in front of the Brewers has not been wise of late but they are going a different route tonight. The Brewers started Gio Gonzalez to open the series and he made an abbreviated start in Game One at Miller Park, when he pitched two innings and allowed only a homer to Manny Machado. He is now going back out on three-days rest and he has not pitched on short rest since his rookie season in 2008. The Dodgers counter with Rich Hill who is coming off a rare wild outing as he faced the Braves in Atlanta in Game Four of the NLDS and walked five in 4.1 innings but managed to allowed just two runs. He should be more comfortable at home and going back, he has allowed one run in 11 innings with 14 strikeouts in two career NLCS starts. Additionally, he allowed two runs in 12 innings over two starts against the Brewers, both resulting in identical 6-4 Los Angeles victories. 10* (910) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-16-18 | Coyotes v. Wild -140 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA WILD for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. Minnesota is coming off a loss last night in Nashville as it went with backup goalie Alex Stalock who saw his first action of the season, allowing three goals on 27 shots. The Wild get their starter back in net tonight as Devan Dubnyk has been confirmed. They have lost four of five games this season including two of three at home against Vegas and Carolina but they are definitely in a good bounce back spot tonight. Dubnyk is not the reason for its slow start as in four games, he has a .934 save percentage, going 1-1-2 with a 2.64 GAA. Arizona is off to a typical slow start as it is 1-3 with all three of those losses being shutouts. The Coyotes have scored only two goals as the one victory came by way of shootout in Anaheim. They are getting chances as Arizona has propelled at least 30 shots on goal in every game, the first time it has done that in the first four games since 1985-86 and it will not be any easier tonight. In all games Rick Tocchet has coached, his teams are 4-26 against the moneyline in road games off a home loss while the Coyotes are 8-21 in their last 29 games following a home loss of three or more goals. Meanwhile, the Wild are 40-13 in their last 53 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* (14) Minnesota Wild |
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10-16-18 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-105 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. The NBA season tips off with a pair of teams with lofty goals in the Eastern Conference and a rematch from the postseason last year. The Celtics, who knocked the Sixers out of the playoffs in the second round, are looking at the upcoming season with even more hope and expectation than before. The team made a run to the Eastern Conference finals, where they fell to the Cavaliers, without two of their best players in Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. Both are back and healthy but Hayward will be on a 25-minute limit for the start of the season, according to head coach Brad Stevens. Boston struggled during the preseason and while wins and losses mean nothing, there were some continuity and rotation issues they might have issues with early in the season. Philadelphia had a good preseason led by center Joel Embiid who is starting the season on a healthy note and he averaged 22.9 ppg, 11.0 rpg and 1.8 bpg. Second-year guard Markelle Fultz will join Ben Simmons in the backcourt as a starter. Last season, Fultz missed 68 games with a right shoulder injury but he is good to go after working on his shooting all summer. That means J.J. Reddick is coming off the bench which is a dangerous threat against the Celtics bench. If the playoffs last season are any indication, we should be in for a great game tonight. Boston won in five games with three of the four victories coming by 5, 2 and 2 points. The Celtics finished with a 24-17 record at home which was not great as it was tied for the 11th best home record in the league. They were an amazing 10-0 ATS as home underdogs but just 20-18-4 ATS as home favorites. 10* (501) Philadelphia 76ers |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -8.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the GREEN BAY PACKERS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. This is a big number to be laying down but the 49ers injury situation is not improving from earlier in the week. We already know Jimmy Garoppolo is out for the season but tonight, San Francisco will be without running back Matt Breida while three starting offensive linemen and a backup are all still listed as questionable. This is not ideal going up against a defense that has been underrated this season as the Packers are ranked No. 4 in total defense, allowing just 313.8 ypg while the scoring defense is also a top ten unit. C.J. Beathard gets the start and in just two games this season, he has thrown four interceptions giving him 10 career picks in only seven career starts. In the 28-18 loss to Arizona last week, Beathard completed 34 of 54 passes for 349 yards with two touchdowns and the 49ers rang up 447 yards of total offense. Of course, there were also five turnovers and that has plagued the 49ers offense all season. This is a big game for the Packers prior to their bye coming up next week as they are looking to bounce back from a loss to Detroit and they can move into first place with a victory. Following their bye, they have back-to-back games against the Rams and Patriots, both on the road, which puts more emphasis on this game. Many are down on this team but according to Pro Football Focus elite stats, the Packers enter Week Six as the 7th best team in the NFL with an 81.6 grade, while their offense ranks 6th with a 76.0 grade and their defense ranks 7th with a grade of 79.3. The Packers have outgained their last two opponents by 278 and 257 total yards so the offense continues to roll as well and while many are blaming the field goal kicking doing them in, the offense should not have put Mason Crosby in that position so many times by finishing 3-10 in third down. The Packers were unable to execute when needed but that should change at home against a mediocre San Francisco defense. 10* (278) Green Bay Packers |
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10-15-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -173 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -173 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers avoided a 2-0 hole as they rallied from a 3-0 deficit with two runs in each of the seventh and eighth innings and they now head back home with home field advantage on their side. They have a chance to a take some control of the series with a win tonight and they clearly have the momentum from snapping the Brewers 12-game losing streak. The Dodgers are 9-0 in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record. Jhoulys Chacin had a really solid season and it spilled into the postseason as he tossed five shutout innings against the Brewers in Game Three of the NLDS. During the regular season, he posted a 3.50 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 35 starts but this could be a brutal spot for him tonight. Not only is he facing the potent Dodgers offense, but it is the same offense that rocked him for nine runs in just 4.1 innings as he allowed three home runs. With that in the back of his head, that could be a cause for real concern. And it just was not a one-time thing as when he was with the Padres last season, he allowed nine runs in 3.1 innings in a start at Dodger Stadium. Walker Buehler counters for Los Angeles and he was even better with a 2.62 ERA AND 0.96 whip IN 24 GAMES. His first postseason start did not go well as he allowed five runs in five innings in Atlanta but he shut out the Rockies for 6.2 innings in the play-in game and while that was not considered the postseason, it was essentially a playoff game. At home this season, he had a 1.93 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 13 games. Here, we play against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 59-12 (83.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (954) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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10-15-18 | Stars v. Senators +159 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 159 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the OTTAWA SENATORS for our NHL Sunday Breakaway. We won with Ottawa on Saturday as it defeated the Kings 5-1 after jumping out to a 3-0 first period lead. Typically, fading underdogs after an underdog win is the preferable way to go, but in this case, the situation is in the Senators favor. Ottawa is 1-1-1 at home and this could be a good momentum boost with this game and Montreal up next before closing this five-game homestand with Boston. After the Saturday 36-save performance, Craig Anderson will start in net again against the Stars. At this point, head coach Guy Boucher is not sure when backup Mike Condon will play again. Dallas is off to a 3-1 start but it has had the luxury of playing those first four games at home making this the Stars first trip on the road this season. Dallas has missed the playoffs each of the last two seasons and a big reason for that is its poor play on the road as the Stars are 28-54 over the last two seasons on the highway. Dallas is 7-18 against the moneyline after scoring five goals or more in their previous game and they fall into a negative situation where we play against road teams against the moneyline after having won 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of .700 or better playing a team with a winning percentage between .300 and .400 in the first half of the season. This situation is 67-43 (60.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (52) Ottawa Senators |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 52 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our NFL Sunday Night Game of the Year. The game of the season so far will take place Sunday night as Kansas City brings in a perfect 5-0 record and will try to win here for a second straight season. The Chiefs are coming off an impressive win over Jacksonville as the defense held the Jaguars to just 14 points and that was due to five turnover. The defense still allowed 502 total yards so it is still an issue and was masked by the final score. Kansas City has been outgained in four of five games and while the offense will still move the ball, this is the one matchup where they will not likely jump out to a big lead which they have done in three of their four games. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. This is the third straight home game for the Patriots which is a significant advantage, even more so when playing with an extra three days of rest. They should excel against the Chiefs defense as quarterback Tom Brady has been very good this season and has recently gained steam while the Chiefs defense has not. The goal is at least 400 yards as going back to 2013, they are 32-2 when hitting that number. The history of Belichick-coached teams facing rookie quarterbacks is timely to revisit this week, and it starts with this: The Patriots are 9-0 at home against rookie signal-callers. It gets even better. Since 2007, quarterback Tom Brady is 59-2 at home against AFC opponents. The first loss was in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Buffalo Bills in 2014, when the Patriots had already clinched home-field advantage and Brady was pulled at halftime. The second was last season in their season opener and more important, it came against the Kansas City Chiefs which only adds to the motivation this Sunday night. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (276) New England Patriots |
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10-14-18 | Bears v. Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We were on Miami last week and things were looking good with the Dolphins possessing a 17-0 lead late in the third quarter and then the wheels fell off. The Bengals tied the game early in the fourth quarter by way of a 22-yard interception return for a touchdown and took the lead late with a field goal. Miami was still alive with over two minutes remaining but quarterback Ryan Tannehill was strip sacked and the fumble was returned for a touchdown. The Dolphins are back home following a two-game roadtrip that saw them lose to the Patriots as well in a blowout. Chicago has won three straight games but the Bears have benefitted from playing the 27th ranked schedule in the NFL. They are coming off a bye week and the early bye is not good here as it killed momentum from the winning streak including the victory over Tampa Bay which was one of the most complete games on both sides in a while. The question here is are the Bears six points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field? The simple answer is no as this line is based on recency bias. Looking at the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) provided by Football Outsiders for both teams, the Bears are 1st in defensive DVOA, while Miami checks in at 5th. The Bears are 17th offensively, with the Dolphins right behind them at 18 so these teams are more even that people think. The Chicago defense is a tough unit with the addition of Khalil Mack so the offensive line for the Dolphins has to step up which it did not do last Sunday. That was due to losing left tackle Laremy Tunsil with a concussion but he is projected to return this week as he is back at practice. Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards last game and is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after gaining 6.0 or more yppl last game. Additionally, we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (256) Miami Dolphins |
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10-13-18 | Astros +106 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-2 | Win | 106 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Houston was expected to be challenged by Cleveland in the ALDS but that was hardly the case as the Astros swept the Indians in three games by a combined score of 21-6. While they are slight underdogs in Game One, they are favored to win this series and rightfully so despite not having home field advantage as they finished five games behind the Red Sox. Boston has the home field advantage on most days but that is not the case tonight as its 57-24 record at Fenway Park is matched by the 57-24 record on the road by the Astros. The Astros are 6-1 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and they took two of three here back in September. This is the same pitching matchup we saw in Game One of the 2017 ALDS and while the venue is different, we expect the Astros to again take the opener. Justin Verlander gets the ball for Houston and the Astros could not be in better shape. He stymied the Indians for five innings in Game One before the bullpen was called upon as he retired 15 of the first 16 batters he faced and finished with seven strikeouts. His postseason track record is outstanding and he has been outstanding since 2013, going 6-2 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP in 11 games (10 starts). Chris Sale counters for Boston and something just does not seem right. Health and stamina were concerns heading into the playoffs, as left shoulder inflammation limited him to 17 innings from July 28 through the end of the regular season. He was decent in his start against the Yankees in the ALDS but far from his dominant self and the Astros have his number. He has allowed 11 runs in 11 innings in two starts since last season including an awful effort in the ALDS opening game. Here, we play against American League teams hitting between .265 and .279 with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better. This situation is 37-13 (74 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (903) Houston Astros |
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10-13-18 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals -115 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS as part of our NHL Saturday Hat Trick. Washington has had a difficult stretch to open the season as it has played the ninth toughest schedule so far. The Capitals opened the season with a 7-0 blowout over the Bruins and after an overtime loss to the Penguins, they once again brought it at home with a win over Vegas in a Stanley Cup rematch. No the fact they laid an egg the following night in New Jersey in a 6-0 loss is not overly surprising. Toronto is the top team in the Eastern Conference to unseat Washington as it is already off to a 4-1 start but it not beaten any team of significance. The Maple Leafs schedule is ranked No. 28 in the league and this is by far their toughest test. The Capitals fall into a spectacular situation where we play on favorites against the moneyline after scoring one goal or less in their previous game going up against an opponent after scoring five goals or more in two straight games. This situation is 27-3 (90 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (60) Washington Capitals |
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10-13-18 | Georgia v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 48 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our SEC Game of the Year. We played against LSU last week as the Tigers went to Florida and suffered their first loss of the season. They are back in Baton Rouge for their first real home test of the season and they have an excellent shot at a big bounceback and to remain in the thick of the SEC West race. A loss here will likely take any chance out as they would fall two games behind Alabama. This is a tough matchup for sure but LSU matches up well against Georgia in their first meeting since 2013. The Tigers are averaging 190 ypg rushing on 4.5 ypc and they have a chance to succeed here as the Bulldogs rushing defense has been nothing special of late. Taking Tennessee out of the equation, Georgia has allowed 4.8 ypc, 4.6 ypc and 4.2 ypc over its last three games. Quarterback Joe Burrow has been very solid as he has given LSU a quarterback that has been able to take some shots downfield for the first time in a very long time and he will be facing a fairly young secondary. Taking nothing away from how Georgia has dominated every game thus far but it has played the easiest schedule of all teams in the SEC. The Bulldogs defeated Missouri by 14 points in their last road game and it was far from a domination as they benefitted from three Tigers turnovers including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown and they also blocked a punt for a touchdown. Georgia is one of the youngest teams in the nation this season as its roster consists of 68.5 percent freshmen and sophomores. That is the youngest in the SEC and 15th youngest in the country and this will be the toughest place those players will have seen as before this is was Auburn which resulted in a blowout loss. The Bulldogs will be starting two for sure, and maybe three, freshmen on the offensive line. They lost a ton from the front seven and coming into this week, the Bulldogs are last of 14 SEC schools in sacks with just six. LSU has been a home underdog just seven times since 2009 and never allowed more than 23 points in any of those games. Additionally, LSU is 9-0 ATS against teams averaging 8.0 or more passing ypa. 10* (198) LSU Tigers |
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10-13-18 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg -3.5 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS for our CFL Saturday Enforcer. We lost our big game last week on Edmonton as it was covering for the first three quarters until early in the fourth quarter when Saskatchewan picked off a Mike Reilly pass and returned it 49 yards for a touchdown to take a four-point lead and the eventual win. Reilly was picked off three times so the fact that the Roughriders were outgained for the sixth time in their last seven games meant nothing. The victory cliched a playoff spot for Saskatchewan which has won three straight games and seven of its last eight despite the negative yardage differentials. The only time it has won the stats over the last seven games was against 3-12 Montreal so a lot of things have gone its way during this unexpected run. The defense has shown improvement but the stagnate offense will eventually catch up as the Roughriders are ahead of only Montreal in total offense as they are averaging just 333.5 ypg. The Roughriders are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after having won four out of their last five games. Winnipeg has won three straight games to improve to 8-7 on the season and the last victory could keep the momentum rolling as it defeated Ottawa in overtime. The Blue Bombers moved ahead of Edmonton and they control their own destiny at this point to host a playoff game. The three-game run is a season high and it has been a dominating one as they have led by at least 15 points each time, with two wire-to-wire victories. This is a revenge game as well in this rivalry as Winnipeg has lost the first two meetings this season which came in back-to-back weeks a month ago despite outgaining the Roughriders both times. The Blue Bombers are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (664) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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10-13-18 | Nebraska +5 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 45 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Give a lot of credit to Northwestern as it was coming off a heartbreaking loss against Michigan two weeks ago at home where it blew a 17-0 lead but bounced back brilliantly on the road as the Wildcats went to East Lansing and defeated Michigan St. by 10 points. Those were two very impressive games for Northwestern, which was coming off losses against Duke and Akron, but digging deeper shows they should not have been where they finished. Against the Wolverines, they were outgained by 174 total yards as they benefitted from 11 penalties by Michigan that resulted in 100 yards. Against the Spartans, they were outgained by 44 yards and the winning margin was gained by Michigan St. missing a fourth down on its own 11-yard line with over three minutes left, which was a suspect play call. We are seeing huge reverse line movement in this game as the Wildcats opened as 7.5-point favorites and while over two-thirds of the tickets are on then, the line has dropped considerably. Nebraska is off to its worst start since 1945 and the natives are getting restless as this is not what was envisioned when Scott Frost was hired as head coach. Going back to last season, the Huskers have lost nine straight games so they need to get on the right side of the scoreboard and fast. Three weeks against Michigan was a disaster but the next week, they outgained Purdue but lost because of 136 penalty yards. Last week, they lost at Wisconsin by 17 points but were outgained by just 15 yards as 100 yards in penalties were the difference once again. Two situation favor Nebraska. First, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two consecutive conference losses by 10 points or more, in October games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 47-14 ATS (77 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (179) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +144 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 144 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee finished the regular season four games better than the Dodgers, stormed through the NLDS with three straight wins on top of eliminating the Cubs in Game 163 and their current winning streak stands at 11 straight games yet they are getting no respect here. The betting public is all over the Dodgers in Game One with two-thirds of the tickets on their side so Milwaukee is catching a fantastic number at home. The Brewers quietly went 51-30 at home, the best home record in the National League, and they are 20-7 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning road record. The story all season for the Brewers has been their bullpen and rightfully so. Milwaukee's 3.47 ERA in relief was second in the National League only to the Cubs. The bullpen went 2-0 with a save and a 1.17 ERA in the three-game Division Series sweep over Colorado. But Gio Gonzalez is getting overshadowed here in what is a great spot. It has been quite a rebound since being acquired in a deal with the Nationals, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts with Milwaukee. Gonzalez is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA in six career starts against the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw is the reason the Dodgers are big road favorites and he has been solid since his return from the disabled list. But the postseason demons still linger. While Kershaw has thrown 12 consecutive scoreless innings in the postseason dating back to last year's World Series, he is 2-4 with a 4.65 ERA in five career starts in the NLCS. Here, we play on home underdogs after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs, in October games. This situation is 41-23 (64.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (902) Milwaukee Brewers |
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10-12-18 | South Florida v. Tulsa +7.5 | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE for our CFB Friday Game of the Month. This is what we can consider a trap line. South Florida, which lost only twice last season, is off to a 5-0 start but it is a misleading 5-0 start. One win came against Elon of the FCS while three others came against Illinois, East Carolina and Massachusetts, not exactly murderers row. The one quality win came against Georgia Tech by 11 points but the Bulls were outgained by 176 total yards as it returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and benefitted from three Georgia Tech turnovers, two of which were at the end of the game and led to two touchdowns. Basically, it was a game the South Florida was completely outplayed in but won thanks to four touchdowns from somewhere other than the offense. Another part of the trap line concept is that the Bulls were favored by 24 points last season at home and we are seeing a 17-point shift which is too big for some to comprehend. Despite the big number, it was only a seven-point loss. South Florida lost one of the best players in the conference in quarterback Quinton Flowers, who was also its leading rusher, its two other top rusher and top receiver as well as six defensive starters. We played against Tulsa last Thursday as it lost to Houston but stayed within the number. The Cougars could not come through with the revenge cover and give the Golden Hurricane credit for staying close nearly the entire game and only getting outgained by 53 yards. They have 15 starters back from their 2-10 team and at 1-4, this is a huge game for a much improved team. They have some tight losses against quality teams from a schedule that is ranked No. 33 in the country. Going back, the Golden Hurricane are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals, in October games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (110) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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10-11-18 | Eagles -3 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Philadelphia is off to a 2-3 post-Super Bowl Champion start which is not overly surprising considering most teams not named the Patriots tend to go through a Super Bowl hangover. The Eagles three losses all could have been wins however as the net yardage differential in those games is a total wash at 0.0. Only seven previous defending Super Bowl champions that started 2-3, and only one of the previous seven rebounded to make the postseason. Their season is far from over as they can buck history simply because they are located in the NFC East. Philadelphia is a half-game behind Washington, along with Dallas, and a game ahead of the Giants and this division is the only one with a team possessing first place that is not above .500. The Eagles simply have to win the close games they have been losing and they need to get the offense on track as their 20.6 ppg is ranked No. 25 in the league. Enter the Giants, which have allowed 33 points in each of their last two games including an excruciating last second loss against Carolina last week to drop them to 1-4. While they are not dead either because of the weakness of the division, they are a mess inside he locker room. The offense finally showed something against the Panthers but they will struggle against a strong Eagles defensive front as the offensive line has stunk it up. New York is No. 28 in rushing offense while Philadelphia is ranked No. 2 in rushing defense so any resemblance of balance on Thursday will be a tall order. The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win while the Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and fall into a solid situation where we play on road favorites after two or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (103) Philadelphia Eagles |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our Big XII Game of the Month. Texas Tech has had a nice turnaround after getting crushed in its season opener against Mississippi and a lot of that credit goes to quarterback Alan Bowman. He replaced McLane Carter who had to leave that game with a high ankle sprain and was great by going 29-49 for 273 yards and a touchdown in his first action as a freshman but the defense was the typical Texas Tech defense in the 47-27 loss. Bowman started the next four games but had to leave the last one against West Virginia when a hit partially collapsed a lung and he had to be hospitalized for four days. Jett Duffey took over and he did not play well and he is in line to start tonight as Bowman has been downgraded to doubtful after being questionable all week and all signs are that the Carter ankle will still keep him out. Quarterback play is huge in the Red Raiders system and if this were any normal game, going to the third string might not make a big difference but this is no normal game. They will be facing a 3-2 TCU team that stayed with Ohio St. for three and a half quarters and the following week, had Texas on the ropes but costly turnovers did them in as they outgained the Longhorns. The challenge for the Red Raiders is facing a defense that is allowing just 303.6 ypg, which is tops in the Big XII and No. 12 in the nation. Additionally, the Horned Frogs lead the conference in passing defense and passing efficiency defense, checking in at No. 22 and No. 24 in the nation respectively. In their last game against West Virginia, the Red Raiders came in averaging 621 ypg and was held to 463 yards against a Mountaineers defense that is slightly worse than that of the Horned Frogs. While the strength of the Texas Tech defense is stopping the run, which is the strength of the TCU offense, it is skewed as the Red Raiders are 52nd against the run but 101st in ypc average. Texas Tech is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points while the Horned Frogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (106) TCU Horned Frogs |
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10-11-18 | Blue Jackets v. Panthers -140 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the FLORIDA PANTHERS as part of our NHL Thursday Hat Trick. We won with Columbus on Tuesday as it defeated Colorado 5-2 but we are going against the Blue Jackets as they hit the road for a second time. The first game on the highway resulted in a victory but it took overtime to defeat a bad Detroit team. Columbus struggled on the road last season with losses in 22 of 41 games. Florida opened the season last Saturday and has not played since. The Panthers went to Tampa Bay and ended up taking a shootout loss against the Lightning despite outshooting them 43-29. They have had a lot of time off which can be good or bad this early in the season. With the case of this being their home opener, it is a good thing as they are amped to get this going. The Panthers are 21-5 in their last 26 home games. And they fall into a situation where we play on home favorites of -200 or less against the moneyline coming off a loss by one goal or in a shootout to a division rival, winless on the season. This situation is 34-6 (85 percent) since 1996. 10* (4) Florida Panthers |
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10-10-18 | Coyotes +145 v. Ducks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 145 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA COYOTES for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. We are going ultimate contrarian here against one of the biggest public consensus plays we have seen in a while. Anaheim is off to a 3-0 start and despite sitting atop the Western Conference, there are a lot of questions still. Goalie John Gibson has been outstanding but not sure long it can last as the defense has allowed 31.7 shots per game which is bottom third of the league. The Ducks are without Ryan Kessler for a while and could be without Ryan Getzlaf again with a lower body injury after he missed their last game against Detroit. Arizona is in a familiar place and that is sitting in last place in the Western Conference with the season just one week in. The Coyotes are 0-2 and have yet to score a goal as they have been shut out in both games on home ice so a trip on the road could be a very good thing here. One of the big issues last season was the health of goalie Antti Raanta as he got hurt three games in and Arizona got off to a 1-11 start which ended its season before it started. He came back and finished last season with a 2.24 GAA and .930 save percentage and the Coyotes went 13-3 over his last 16 starts. He is healthy now and after an average opener against the Stars, he was great against Anaheim last time out as he allowed just one goal on 10 shots. While it is a small sample size, the Ducks are -11 in shooting differential while Arizona is +13 in shooting differential and eventually, the goal scored and allowed are going to flip and this looks like the perfect spot to start. 10* (55) Arizona Coyotes |
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10-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees -119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Divisional Series rounds have been nothing short of duds as we have seen a pair of sweeps and a near sweep with the Dodgers and it is up to the Yankees to finally have one go the distance. They were trounced last night as the Red Sox erupted for 16 runs on 18 hits as they got to every New York pitcher that entered the game as all six arms allowed at least one earned run and walked at least two. This included the use of catcher Austin Romine in the ninth inning which was a smart move to preserve pitchers for tonight. The Boston highlight was Brock Holt hitting for the first cycle in postseason history and the Yankees probably took offense to it by leaving him in as he hit a two-run home run in the ninth inning to make history. C.C. Sabathia will try to repress the Boston offense and he has a good chance to do just that as the Red Sox are hitting just .250 against left-handed pitching which is middle of the pack and they have hit just 37 home runs which is ninth lowest in baseball. Sabathia has been solid at home with a 3.12 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Rick Porcello counters for Boston and has been decent all season but this is not a good time or place. He is 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four postseason starts and while he was tremendous against the Yankees this season, going 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts, the ERA at home is 0.50 in three starts and 8.44 ERA in the one start in New York. Here, we play against American League teams hitting between .265 to .279 with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better. This situation is 37-12 (75.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) New York Yankees |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +10.5 | Top | 35-9 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARKANSAS ST. RED WOLVES for our CFB Tuesday Star Attraction. We expected this line to go up and that is precisely what it has done as Appalachian St. opened at -7.5 and it is now up to -10.5 in some places. The is a classic reason to wait and let the betting public move the number so we can get on the other side with the added value. The Mountaineers have been great this season as they lost in overtime to Penn St. but have bounced back with three blowout wins. Dominating? Yes. Impressive? No. Those wins came over Charlotte, Gardner Webb and South Alabama and those teams are currently ranked No. 175, No. 243 and No. 162 respectively in the most recent Sagarin Ratings with a combined 4-13 record. Conventional handicapping says to back the better rushing team, especially when there is a large differential between the two teams and in this case, Appalachian St. averages 269.5 ypg on 6.5 ypc while Arkansas St. allows 245.0 ypg on 5.7 ypc. That does not mean a blowout is in order. The Red Wolves got decimated on the ground in their last two games as they allowed 310 yards rushing on 6.3 ypc against UNLV and still won the game. In their last game against Georgia Southern, they allowed 348 yards rushing on 7.1 ypc and they lost by just a touchdown and that was on the road. Georgia Southern is ranked No. 5 in the nation in rushing offense while Appalachian St. comes in at No. 7 so there is no bigger advantage for the Mountaineers. Arkansas St. is ranked No. 87 in the Sagarin Ratings as it is now 3-2 on the season including a 2-0 record at home where it is 36-7 since 2011. Going back to last season, Appalachian St. is on a perfect 8-0 ATS run and do not think the linesmakers do not know that. Meanwhile, Arkansas St. has failed to cover five straight at home which sets up the perfect contrarian scenario. 10* (102) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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10-09-18 | Avalanche v. Blue Jackets -130 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. We played on Columbus in its last game which was all the way back to Friday and that resulted in a loss against Carolina 3-1. Prior to that, the Blue Jackets defeated Detroit in overtime despite outshooting the Red Wings 39-20 so it has been a very uneven start for Columbus which is still trying to shake off the loss against Washington in the playoffs from last season after winning the first two games on the road. The Blue Jackets have had three full days off to get more revved up from that loss these breaks have helped in the past as they are 12-3 in their last 15 games playing on three or more days rest. Colorado opened the season with a pair of home games and both resulted in three-goal victories. The Avalanche were a playoff team from last season, barely, as they finished a point ahead of St. Louis for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Like most teams, they were solid at home and struggled on the road where they lost 26 of 41 games and going back, they are 17-51 in their last 68 road games. Philipp Grubauer will make his first start in goal for the Avalanche after coming over from Washington in the offseason. This could be significant considering he made those first two starts against the Blue Jackets in the playoffs and allowed four goals in each game on just 49 total shots. Here, we play on favorites against the moneyline that are coming off a loss by two goals or more to a division rival going up against an opponent off a home win by two goals or more. This situation is 66-23 (74.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (2) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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10-08-18 | Redskins +6 v. Saints | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The Saints are off to a 3-1 start to the season but they are overpriced as being a big, primetime public home team, the line has been inflated. They are coming off a pair of road wins but they were against teams that are a combined 2-8 so not much should be taken from that. The home edge is always a big one here and tonight it will be electric with Drew Brees likely to pass Peyton Manning as the All-Time Passing Leader but that is certainly no reason to bet on a team. Even more so knowing the Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six Monday night games. Washington is 2-1 coming off its bye week which is a good thing now but could catch up to the Redskins later with it being so early. They were able rest and recover some injuries as running back Adrian Peterson (ankle) is ready to go and cornerback Josh Norman (hamstring) and left tackle Trent Williams (knee surgery) had time to heal and ease their way into practice this week. Alex Smith has proven to be a good pickup from the Chiefs as he manages the offense just like he did in Kansas City. Washington has an assorted array of skill talent, as well a solid offensive line, for a balanced attack that can get to a Saints defense which is allowing 30.2 ppg despite playing four teams that are a combined 5-10-1 with none possessing a winning record. The scoring defense is ranked No. 30 in the NFL while the total defense is ranked in the bottom quarter of the league. Washington is tops in the league in total defense but that is against a small sample size however it has been successful at disrupting opposing quarterbacks this season, ranking top-10 in pressures and that is important against Brees. New Orleans is just 12-32 ATS in its last 44 home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Meanwhile the Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (477) Washington Redskins |
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10-08-18 | Edmonton +4 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 12-19 | Loss | -107 | 148 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON ESKIMOS for our CFL Game of the Year. We played against the Roughriders last week as they were unable to put away a bad Montreal team despite having a 294-yard advantage. Quarterback Zach Collaros recorded season highs in completions (29) and attempts (41) as the Roughriders registered a season-best 502 yards of total offense yet they only won by five points. Saskatchewan has been red hot, winning six of its last seven games but that record is as deceiving as they come. The Roughriders have outgained only two opponents over this seven-game stretch, with Montreal being one and the other was by just 12 yards. The Roughriders are four games over .500 yet are getting outgained on average in their 14 games. The last five victories have come by an average of just 4.4 ppg. Saskatchewan is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after having won four out of its last five games. Edmonton had a chance to make a move in the West Division but it lost to Winnipeg by 27 points at home despite outgaining the Blue Bombers. The Eskimos killed themselves as they finished with seven turnover, which led to 20 Winnipeg points, including a pair of interceptions from Mike Reilly, who had his worst game of the season by a wide margin. Over the last two games, both losses, the Eskimos have been outscored 58-18 while totaling 585 yards and 12 turnovers and we know they are better than this. These recent results are skewing a line that is considerably off. Edmonton is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog of seven points or less. The Eskimos fall into two solid situations as well. First, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 23 and 28 ppg, after a loss by 20 or more points. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (657) Edmonton Eskimos |
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10-08-18 | Golden Knights -130 v. Sabres | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS for our NHL Monday Breakaway. We won with Buffalo on Saturday as it took care of the Rangers 3-1 but the Sabres are in a much more unfavorable spot tonight. They were able to take advantage of the power play as two of those three goals were scored with the extra man and on the night, they were outshot 44-29 so a lot of credit has to go to Carter Hutton by posting a .977 save percentage. He will be challenged tonight by a Vegas offense that is ready to erupt after scoring just two goals in each of its first two games. The Golden Knights won in Minnesota on Saturday in a shootout so technically, they have scored just three goals in regulation. This will turn around as Vegas was the fifth highest-scoring offense last season, averaging 3.27 gpg and its 2.98 gpg average on the road was ranked No. 7. There is the potential to even be better as the Golden Knights added former Montreal Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty and former St. Louis Blues center Paul Stastny during the offseason. Marc-Andre Fleury had a good bounce back game, stopping 29 of 30 shots after giving up five goal on just 16 shots in the opener against the Flyers where he was pulled after playing just over 30 minutes Buffalo went 3-18 against the moneyline as a home underdog of +100 to +150 last season while Vegas went 21-8 against the moneyline after a win by one goal in its previous game. 10* (55) Vegas Golden Knights |
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10-08-18 | Astros v. Indians -118 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. It is do or die for Cleveland which lost the first two games of this ALDS as the offense was handcuffed by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. A return home should help that where Cleveland finished 49-32 during the regular season and hit .267 which was second best in the American League behind Boston. Houston possessed the best road record in baseball at 57-24 so the challenge for Cleveland to stay alive will not be easy but the price reflects that. Houston has just three wins in their last 11 playoff road games. Dallas Keuchel used to be the ace of this staff but he has taken a step back. After winning the Cy Young in 2015, he followed that up with a poor 2016 and after a bounce back last season, he has a 3.74 ERA and 1.31 WHP which are good by most standards but not his. His home/road and day/night splits are very similar but he has struggled on the road with a 5.40 ERA in his last five road starts and he comes in with a 6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over his last three starts overall. He faced Cleveland twice this season and was average with a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Mike Clevinger has been on a great run as he has a 2.31 ERA and 1.03 WHIP since the All Star Break, covering 13 starts. He made 13 daytime starts as well and posted a 2.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While the Astros tagged him for eight runs in 11.2 innings, both of those were early in the season in back-to-back starts in May. The Indians are 6-0 in his last six home starts. Here, we play against underdogs after allowing two runs or less two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less three straight games. This situation is 168-81 (67.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (916) Cleveland Indians |
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10-07-18 | Maple Leafs -140 v. Blackhawks | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS for our NHL Sunday Breakaway. This line came out late due to both teams playing last night and we will be going against those results tonight. Chicago burnt us last night as Jonathan Toews had three shots on goal and all three found the net including the overtime winner. The Blackhawks are off to a surprising 2-0 start, with both wins coming on the road and the fact they are heading home actually helps us here with the number. This is a team in rebuild mode but winning two straight has them in an overconfident state after two overtime victories. Cam Ward has been average in goal so whether he goes or a backup makes a start, it is advantage Toronto. The Maple Leafs lost to Ottawa last night as -275 favorites so they will be out for some redemption. They outshot the Senators 37-24 but it was goalie Frederik Andersen that struggles as he allowed four goals. There is an interesting dynamic for Toronto as Maple Leafs backup goalie Garret Sparks grew up in the Chicago area and has never skated on United Center ice. He trains there in the summer with friend Patrick Kane and he will be pretty jazzed to make this one count. Toronto is one of the top favorites to win the Stanley Cup so losing back-to-back games against inferior competition simply cannot happen. 10* (3) Toronto Maple Leafs |
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10-07-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -152 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. We played on Colorado on Friday and unfortunately, a solid performance from Tyler Anderson was ruined by the offense that has suddenly gone ice cold. The Rockies have scored just six runs over their last four games but all of those games have come on the road and we know what this offense is capable of at home where it leads all of baseball in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. We expected a line move here after opening at -140 and it did go up but not to a point where it is unplayable as Colorado looks to avoid elimination. Milwaukee remains the hottest team in the postseason a it has reeled off 10 consecutive wins as both offense and pitching have been spot on. The Brewers are headed to a tough spot however based on venue and matchup as they will be facing one of the hottest starting pitchers in all of baseball. German Marquez was not at his finest in Los Angeles last time out but it was just two pitches that cost him, snapping a 12-game quality start streak. While going back to Coors Field for some pitchers is not a good thing, it is for Marquez as he has posted a 1.90 ERA there since July over seven starts. Wade Miley has had a breakout season but he is leaking some oil down the stretch as he has posted a 4.24 ERA over his last four starts and gets the tough task of facing Colorado at the wrong place at the wrong time. Here, we play against underdogs after allowing two runs or less in three straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less three straight games. This situation is 67-25 (72.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) Colorado Rockies |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks +7.5 | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Rams are off and running to a 4-0 start and their +73 scoring differential leads the NFL. They lead the league in total offense, averaging 125 ypg on the ground and 343 ypg through the air and they have scored at least 33 points every game this season. The schedule has been in their favor with three home games and the lone road game coming in Oakland and it has now been well over month since they left the state of California. Despite laying over a touchdown on the road, the public is all over the Rams which does not come as much of a surprise as recreational bettors are reacting to recent results while sharps like getting a 2-2 team as a touchdown or more underdog at home. The Rams are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. After losing its first two games by one possession, Seattle has bounced back with two straight wins including a last second victory over Arizona last week. The Seahawks have rediscovered their run game with consecutive 100-yard rushers and their defense has held three straight opponents to under 305 total yards of offense. Seattle is not without its problems and the one most talked about most is the offense line. But according to analysis based on new player tracking information, the much-maligned Seahawks offensive line might actually be decent at pass blocking, and it might not have been bad last season, either. The Seahawks have the fourth-best PBWR (pass block win rate) 2.5 seconds after the snap so they could have some success against the Rams defense. This is a big revenge game for Seattle and as much as the Seahawks would like to forget that day last December, a 42-7 loss to Los Angeles lingers. This is a situation the Seahawks have thrived in as they are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs of two or more points while going 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs playing with revenge against a .500 or better opponent. 10* (474) Seattle Seahawks |
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10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | Top | 9-12 | Win | 105 | 46 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our AFC North Game of the Year. Cleveland comes into Week Five at 1-2-1 and it has played a lot better than that record shows. Two missed field goals and two bad referee calls last week has put the Browns in this spot and had those gone the other way, they could feasibly be 4-0 right now. While a lot of the hype is surrounding Baker Mayfield and the improved defense, and as it well should, the improvement overall can partly be attributed to not making mistakes. Prone to turnovers in past years, the Browns have the best turnover ratio in the NFL through the first quarter of the season. Mayfield is the type of quarterback that the Ravens have traditionally struggled against. He is mobile, he can beat you in unconventional ways and he has the arm talent to do damage. Cleveland finished No. 18 last season in rushing offense but it is currently No. 2 in that category, averaging 15.8 ypg. Baltimore is coming off a huge win in Pittsburgh last week to move to 3-1 on the season and that presents us with a great letdown opportunity. The last time Cleveland defeated Baltimore was back in October of 2015 and that situation is very similar to this week as the Ravens were coming off a win at Pittsburgh. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has traditionally had his best games against the Browns but this will be the best Browns team that has faced. The recency bias is in full effect here after last week with the Baltimore win over Pittsburgh coupled with the Brown allowing 45 points last week against the Raiders. Baltimore falls into a negative situation where we play against favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This includes a 14-2 ATS record over the last five seasons. 10* (452) Cleveland Browns |
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10-06-18 | Flyers v. Avalanche -120 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO AVALANCHE as part of our NHL Saturday Hat Trick. Colorado got off to a good start to the season with a 4-1 victory over Minnesota on Thursday and it remains home in what is already a big game with six of the next seven games taking place on the road. Catching Colorado with a low number at home needs to be taken advantage of as the Avalanche won 28 games last season on home ice which was tied for third most in the Western Conference. We won with the Flyers on Thursday in a win over Vegas and while it was a play on Philadelphia, it was more of a play against the Golden Knights, which were and will be for a while, overpriced based on last season. The Flyers head home after this game so there could be the early season lookahead to that. The Avalanche are 14-5 in their last 19 home games after scoring four goals or more in their previous game while the Flyers are 0-4 in their last four games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. 10* (72) Colorado Avalanche |
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10-06-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES/BOSTON RED SOX OVER for our MLB Saturday Totals Dominator. The Yankees dug themselves into a 5-0 hole last night and could not get out of it although they gave it their best and look to build on that tonight. They outhit Boston 10-8 but managed only four runs and the offense has a chance to break out in a big way on Saturday. Boston was unable to get to the Yankees bullpen last night but this offense remains red hot as the Red Sox have averaged 7.6 rpg over their last seven games which have all come at Fenway Park. They finished as the best hitting team at home in the American League and have a chance to tee off again tonight. Masahiro Tanaka had a solid run from mid-August to mid-September but he has struggled over his last two starts allowing eight runs over eight innings. One of those games came against Boston which has been his least favorite team to pitch against this season as he has posted a 7.58 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in four starts. The Yankees have scored 31 runs in their last four games when facing a left-handed starter and one of those came against David Price where he was tagged for six runs in 5.1 innings. This is another bad pitching matchup as Price has a 10.34 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in four starts against the Yankees which led baseball with 82 home runs against lefty pitching, nine of which were against Price. 10* Over (953) New York Yankees/(954) Boston Red Sox |
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10-06-18 | Old Dominion v. Florida Atlantic -13 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS for our C-USA Game of the Year. Florida Atlantic is coming off a tough loss against Middle Tennessee as it gave up the winning touchdown with 38 seconds left which was culminated with the two-point conversion. The Owls fell to 2-3 overall and now need to make up ground in the C-USA East Division after losing the conference opener. We saw something similar to this last season as they started the season 1-3 and went on to win 10 straight games. It will be up to the defense to make a similar result which is surprising considering the Owls allowed 390 ypg and 22.7 ppg but those averages have increased to 459 ypg and 39.8 ppg despite the return of 10 starters. However, this regression has been because of two games against UCF and Oklahoma where they allowed and average of 597.5 ypg and 59.5 ppg and Old Dominion is not in that group despite what it did to Virginia Tech. While the Monarchs hung with the Pirates last week, East Carolina dominated throughout as it outgained the Monarchs 492-271 but needed a field goal with less than a minute remaining to pull out the win. The Pirates had two interceptions which both led to Old Dominion touchdowns that totaled 44 yards so that is a big reason the score was as close as it was. Old Dominion has been outgained in four of five games and in that Virginia Tech game, it outgained the Hokies by just 32 total yards. Overall, the defense is allowing 509 ypg and while the Owls offense as not quite as potent as last season thus far, they should be able to name the score here. Old Dominion is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games and Florida Atlantic falls into a situation where we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after two or more consecutive straight up losses, with a winning percentage of between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 23-2 ATS (92 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (328) Florida Atlantic Owls |
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10-06-18 | Maryland +17.5 v. Michigan | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our Big Ten Game of the Month. With all of the turmoil with Maryland entering the season, it is very impressive what it has done. The Terrapins are 3-1 including an upset over Texas and the one hiccup came against Temple, a game they simply did not show up for. They bounced back with a resounding victory over Minnesota and the big part about heading into this week is not just the renewed confidence but the fact they are coming off a bye week and an extra week of preparation before Michigan is a big advatnage. The Terrapins are 20th in the country in total defense, 18th in rushing defense and 52nd in passing defense so the inconsistent Wolverines offense will be put to test. Michigan is coming off a hard-fought physical game against Northwestern and it was fortunate to come away with a victory even though it dominated the stats. Northwestern was a tough test because it was on the road, but Maryland is the best all-around team Michigan has faced since the opener against Notre Dame. Saturday will be the definition of a trap game for Michigan, as the Wolverines are coming off a close, emotional road win and looking forward to three straight games against ranked opponents starting Wisconsin next week in a revenge game. Looking at raw numbers, we see that Maryland has played a schedule ranked No. 48 and Michigan has played a schedule ranked No. 43 so those are a near wash. As far as output, the Wolverines are ranked No. 8 in net yppl at +2.79 but Maryland is not far behind at +1.90. Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after allowing 3.75 or fewer yppl in their previous game and Maryland falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs (averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against a team averaging 190-230 rushing ypg after gaining 6.0 or more rushing ypc last game. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (337) Maryland Terrapins |
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10-05-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Marshall -6 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -106 | 56 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. Marshall enters Friday coming off a win over Western Kentucky but it was an ugly victory. The Thundering Herd had four turnovers with all of them occurring on the Western Kentucky side of the field, eliminating scoring opportunities for them to distance themselves early. The good news is that it was an important road win and one they can learn from in what is a huge early season conference game. It may only be the second game of the Conference USA slate, but it takes on significant meaning with the Blue Raiders coming in with a 1-0 record and having a win in hand over one of the C-USA top teams. Middle Tennessee defeated Florida Atlantic last week by one point with the winning touchdown coming in the final minute so a Marshall victory here at home put it in the drivers seat over the other two top teams in the East Division. The Blue Raiders are now 2-2 and have been outgained in three of four games. The schedule has no doubt been tough which has included a pair of games against SEC teams. Marshall could have some solid matchup edges here. With Middle Tennessee's blitz-heavy defense, the opportunity opens up for one-on-one situations and mismatches. Given that Marshall wide receivers Tyre Brady and Obi Obialo have excelled in one-on-one scenarios this season, there is plenty optimism that they can take advantage in this particular matchup. The Thundering Herd come in with the better defense, namely against the run where they are allowing 2.0 fewer ypc than what Middle Tennessee is allowing and for a pair of less than average rushing offenses, that is significant. The Blue Raiders are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win and here, we play on home teams rushing for 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams rushing for 3 to 3.5 ypc, after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 53-22 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (308) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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10-05-18 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets -145 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS for our NHL Friday Breakaway. The season got underway for both Carolina and Columbus last night and it was opposite results for both teams. Despite outshooting the Islanders 46-20, the Hurricanes lost in overtime as a big favorite while Columbus also went to overtime but was able to pull it out just over two minutes into the extra session. The Blue Jackets also had a big edge in shots as they outshot the Red Wings 39-20 and they return home where their season ended just over five months ago. Columbus won the first two games in its opening round series against Washington on the road but dropped the final four games including all three at home so the Blue Jackets will be out to get back to winning here where they went 26-12-3 during the regular season last year. Columbus head coach John Tortorella elected to start backup goaltender Joonas Korpisalo on Thursday night instead of Sergei Bobrovsky, who struggled during the preseason, but do not read too much into that. Giving him his first start on home ice is the right thing to do for confidence as he posted a 2.18 GAA at home last season, which was tied for third best in the league, compared to a 2.67 GAA on the road, 29th in the NHL. The goaltending situation for Carolina is a lot less ideal. Carolina placed goaltender Scott Darling on injured reserve this week and signed former Columbus goalie Curtis McElhinney to back up Petr Mrazek, who made his Carolina debut with 18 saves last night but gave up the game winning goal just 43 seconds into overtime. McElhinney will likely make the start for the Hurricanes against his former team. 10* (2) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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10-05-18 | Rockies +145 v. Brewers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Game of the Week. Milwaukee took Game One of this NLDS yesterday on a walk-off single after blowing a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning and the Brewers remain the hottest of all teams still playing with nine straight wins. The offense led the way toward the end of the regular season but the pitching has carried Milwaukee of late as it has allowed just three runs over the last three games and the bullpen start on Thursday proved to be the right move. The Rockies finished with only four hits yesterday and they have scored only six runs over the last three games since ending the regular season tied with the Dodgers in the National League West. Fatigue and travel can be blamed for the lack of production but an offense of this caliber cannot be kept down for long and Friday presents a great opportunity to bust out. Jhoulys Chacin has had a great season and he has been efficient of late, allowing three runs or less in 11 straight games. The issue here is that since September, he has not gotten out of the sixth inning of any of his six starts which poses a problem for the bullpen tat was utilized a great deal yesterday. Colorado has won eight of its last 11 games against right-handed starters and it is hitting a solid .279 against right-handed pitching over its last 10 games. The backend of the rotation is in play again with Tyler Anderson getting the ball today but he has been dealing of late with a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three starts. While he has a 5.02 ERA on the road for the season, he has a 1.20 WHIP to go along with that which shows he has been pitching better than the ERA indicates and as long as he keeps the ball in the yard, he will be fine. Look for the Rockies to tie this series up before heading home for Game Three on Sunday. 10* (909) Colorado Rockies |
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10-04-18 | Flyers +140 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-2 | Win | 140 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA FLYERS as part of our NHL Thursday Hat Trick. Philadelphia made the playoffs last season after missing out in 2016-17 and after a first round exit at the hand of the Penguins, the Flyers are a team to keep an eye on this season. They are loaded on offense as they landed James Van Riemsdyk, who they drafted 2nd overall in 2007. He should fit into a deep offense that includes Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds as well as up and coming Travis Konecny, Nolan Patrick and Oskar Lindblom. Goal scoring was not an issue on the road last season as Philadelphia averaged 3.02 gpg which was third highest in the NHL and the Flyers were one of only seven teams in the league with a positive scoring differential on the highway. On the other side, the Flyers have two of the best young defensemen in the league in Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov and the difference in success and failure will come down to goalie Brian Elliott. Last season, he was 23rd with a 2.66 GAA and 32nd with a .909 save percentage, certainly nothing special, but as like the team as a whole, he was better on the road. The story of last year was Vegas which came out of the games red hot and never let up. The Golden Knights made it to the Stanley Cup Finals but after winning the first game at home, they dropped the last four games to end a great season in disappointing fashion. They overachieved in many areas last season and it was just one of those scenarios where everything went right. Vegas is in for a regression for sure. They are going to be overvalued for much of the early part of the season and we are seeing that in Game One. 10* (69) Philadelphia Flyers |
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10-04-18 | Braves +165 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Braves ascension to the top of the National League East took less time than expected as this team went from last place in the National League East in 2016 with 68 wins to third place last season with 72 wins to winning the division this year with 90 victories. Reading some articles online about this series, I came across one and the first sentence from some dolt was "The Dodgers are really good, and the Braves are really not." That is exactly the mindset of the betting public as Atlanta finished one game worse than Los Angeles, had three more road wins than the Dodgers had home wins during the regular season and yet come in as massive underdogs for the series and for Game One. Mike Foltynewicz is getting no respect, which has been the case most of the season, and he has been an underdog higher than this price only four times this season and those came against Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg and Scherzer again. do disrespect to Hyun-Jin Ryu, but he should not be in that group. Foltynewicz finished with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, good for fifth and sixth best in the National League respectively. His ERA on the road is over a half-run less than it is at home and the Braves have won four of his last five road starts. The Dodgers decided to move Clayton Kershaw out of Game One and into Game Two so he would be guaranteed the Game Five start should the series go that far and it was a smart move. Ryu has had a great season but this is an extremely tough matchup as the Braves are hitting .269 against left-handed pitching this season, third best in baseball. The Dodgers are 5-12 in his last 17 starts when playing against a team with a winning record. 10* (903) Atlanta Braves |
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10-04-18 | Colts +10.5 v. Patriots | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our AFC Thursday Game of the Year. Indianapolis enters Week Five with a 1-3 record and with a few bounces its way, it could be 3-1 or 4-0 as the three losses have been that close to going either way. In their last road game, the Colts lost at Philadelphia where they were getting 6.5 points and went down by just four. Now they are getting over a field goal more and at this point in the season, New England is not three points better than the Eagles so this is an inflated line based on who it is and not what it is. Andrew Luck is coming off his best game of the season as he threw for 464 yards and four touchdowns and on the season, he is completing over 67 percent of his passes which is by far the best of his career. The Patriots passing defense is ranked in the top ten in the league but they have not been overly tested yet with Matthew Stafford cutting them up pretty good and while DeShawn Watson is considered near the top, it was his first game back from injury. The Patriots put their most complete game together last week against Miami as they outgained the Dolphins by 277 total yards. They have looked dominant at home and not so much on the road but just because they blew out Miami last week, they should not be put on this high of a pedestal. There are issues all over the place that can be exploited. In making another line comparison, New England was favored by 6.5 points over Miami and we are here to say that Miami is not a over a field goal better than the Colts despite the 3-1 record compared to the 1-3 record. As a matter of fact, look at most power rankings and you will find the Colts ahead of Miami. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential.), after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (301) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston -17.5 | Top | 26-41 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON COUGARS for our AAC Game of the Month. Houston was able to bounce back from its only loss of the season at Texas Tech as it rolled over Texas Southern 70-14, racking up 671 total yards in the process. The offense has been rolling all season as through four games, the Cougars are averaging 607 ypg and 52.3 ppg which are good for No. 1 and No. 2 in the country respectively. They have been as efficient as they come with Houston scoring 29 touchdowns and just two field goals in the four games. The big reason for the success is quarterback D'Eriq King. He took over the starting job toward the end of last season and has not missed a beat in 2018 as he has completed 62.7 percent of his passes while throwing for 1,197 yards and he has an unreal 15:1 TD/INT ratio. He has also added five rushing touchdowns. This is bad news for a Tulsa defense that has improved immensely since last season but it has yet to face an offense of this caliber. Houston got thumped in Tulsa last season and it will be out to return the favor. The Cougars allowed 288 yards rushing on 53 carries (5.4 ypc), which was their worst performance of the season. Things have changed however. Tulsa lost leading rusher D'Angelo Brewer and Houston, while giving up a ton of passing yards, have been excellent against the run, allowing just 114 ypg and while a lot of that can be attributed to teams abandoning the run to play catchup, the Cougars are allowing just 2.8 ypc so they have been stuffing the run. Tulsa does not have the offense to play catchup as quarterback Luke Skipper is averaging just 181.8 ypg and he has only four touchdowns compared to six interceptions. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 after a cover as a double digit favorite, playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 61-27 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Houston Cougars |
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10-03-18 | A's v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 102 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S/NEW YORK YANKEES OVER for our MLB Total of the Year. After a pitching duel last night in Chicago, we should be in for some offense tonight from the Bronx. We all know about the Yankees offense and what it is capable of and it comes in blazing hot, averaging 8.2 rpg over its last six games and that with putting up two runs in the season finale with the starters seeing limited action. The Oakland bats have been firing since the end of August as it has averaged 6.4 rpg over its last 27 games. Oakland employed the bullpen approach once against the Yankees with Liam Hendricks starting and while the game stayed under the total, it was due to the Oakland bats being ice cold against J.A. Happ. Hendricks gets the call tonight and he will be just the fourth pitcher to start a postseason game after a regular season of no wins, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. He has been solid when starting with the bullpenning approach but now comes the biggest test of them all. Luis Severino counters for New York and while he has been great at home this season, most of that success came in the first half. He has a 5.47 ERA in his last five starts in Yankee Stadium. He dominated Oakland in his first start, but that was in May, and he was rocked for six runs in 2.2 innings in Oakland a month ago. There is no team in the postseason that has hit better on the road than the A's. Oakland leads all playoff teams in road hits, road homers, road slugging and scoring and it ranks second in road on-base percentage. They even set a Major League record by homering in 25 straight games on the road. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 after a loss by two runs or less going up against an opponent after a combined score of 12 runs or more in four straight games. This situation is 32-9 (78 percent) since 1997. 10* Over (939) Oakland A's/(940) New York Yankees |
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10-02-18 | Rockies +125 v. Cubs | Top | 2-1 | Win | 125 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Tuesday Wild Card Annihilator. Yesterday was obviously important for the Rockies and they did not come through as a dropped third strike played a big part, so instead of hosting the Braves on Thursday, they have to travel east to play another game today in a one-and-done situation. While Colorado seems to be at a huge disadvantage since the Cubs were able to stay right where they were yesterday, the Rockies are the play. The public is all over Chicago in what might be considered a short number but yesterday showed what this team has had issues with over the second half of the season and that is the offense. The Cubs had just three hits yesterday and going back to September 10th, they have averaged just 3.7 rpg over the last 21 games. The Rockies got handcuffed last night by rookie Walker Buehler but this offense can explode at any moment and why not tonight. Jon Lester has been a postseason force throughout his career so he will not be feeling any pressure tonight. But he faces a murders row of left-handed crushers with Nolan Arenado posting a .368/.451/.747 line against lefties and Trevor Story posting a .326/.389/.680 line against lefties while Ian Desmond goes from a .216 to a .280 hitter facing lefties. And then there are DJ LeMahieu at .330/.360/.540 and Charlie Blackmon at .293/.352/.464 that bring together a team that has hit 247 RBIs, the most in baseball. Not many know who Kyle Freeland is but he has quietly put together a fantastic season. The Denver native has probably dreamed of this moment since he was a kid and there will be no pressure with this scenario having been replayed many times. He has a 2.85 ERA on the season which is fifth best in the National League and his 2.49 ERA since the All Star Break is fifth best in baseball. Even better, in his last 11 starts, Freeland is 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA and the Rockies are 12-2 in his last 14 starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (937) Colorado Rockies |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. The red hot Chiefs travel to Denver to take on their rival as they will be going for a sixth straight victory in this series. Kansas City is off to a 3-0 start thanks to an offense that has yet to be stopped. The problem is, the defense has yet to stop anyone and the fact the Chiefs have been outgained in all three games is concerning. The Chiefs defense has combined to miss 36 tackles so far this season, which is the most among NFL defenses and it will not be getting any better this week as it has now been 48 days since safety Eric Berry practiced or played and he is again listed as doubtful. The Chiefs come in as the road favorite, which is rare in this series as it has happened only twice in 30 years and it is because of their hot start which can offer us opportunities in a market that tends to overreact week-to-week. Denver is off to a 2-1 start as it looks to improve to 3-0 at home following a loss in Baltimore last week. It will be up to the defense to come through here and try and slow down Mahomes and company. The Broncos possess a solid pass rush that can get to the quarterback and in this case, they will be looking to rattle Mahomes who tends to hold the ball longer than he should. Arguably one of the best cornerbacks in the game, Chris Harris Jr. has continued to shut down opposing receivers and he will be tested for sure by Tyreek Hill but he will play a key role. On the other side, the Broncos offense is middle of the pack but the rushing offense leads the way as they are ranked No. 4 in the NFL at 144.7 ypg while their 5.2 ypc average is also good for No. 4 in the league. Here, we play against road favorites that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (278) Denver Broncos |
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10-01-18 | Rockies +159 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Both the Rockies and Dodgers won huge yesterday for force game 163 and this is a huge game for both sides. The winning team will be the National League West champion and the second seed in the National League playoffs, hosting the Atlanta Braves on Thursday night. The losing team will be the second National League Wild Card team and will have a quick turnaround as they will travel to play the winner of the Cubs-Brewers Game. Colorado is 44-37 on the road which is the same as the Dodgers record at home yet Los Angeles comes in as a favorite that shows it is significantly better at home, which it is not, or has a huge starting pitching matchup, which it does not. German Marquez gets the ball for Colorado and he has been outstanding after a slow start. He has posted a 2.16 ERA over his last 12 starts and he has pitched well against the Dodgers including going 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings this season in Los Angeles. Hitters currently on the Dodgers roster have hit a combined .188/.259/.386 in a total of 113 plate appearances against Marquez. Walker Buehler is having a solid rookie season as he has tossed three straight quality outings. He has been very good at home but he has struggled during the day with a 4.91 ERA in five games. The Rockies are 23-8 in their last 31 games against right-handed starters. 10* (953) Colorado Rockies |
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09-30-18 | Nationals v. Rockies -166 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Washington got to Colorado last night for five runs in the first two innings to make Sunday a big day for the Rockies and Dodgers. Colorado caught a huge break with Los Angeles winning last night as strange as that may sound but because the Dodgers clinched a playoff spot, Washington elected to replace Max Scherzer with Erick Fedde. The Rockies need to win today to avoid a trip to either Milwaukee or Los Angeles tomorrow should either or both of those teams win today. The Rockies are 6-1 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Washington is in spoiler role still and with Scherzer getting scratched, we could see some offense taking the day off as well. The Nationals are 7-15 in their last 22 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. The Rockies turn to Tyler Anderson who was scratched in his last start and the rest should do him good in a big spot today. He was in the midst of a horrible run but he posted a pair of quality outings in the last roadtrip, including one against the Dodgers, so he can bring some confidence back home. It is not a fluke either as he made an adjustment with his delivery. Fedde has been average as he has gone six straight starts without a quality outing including his last four since re-entering the rotation. He was shelled by the Rockies in his lone start against them last season and this is his first trip to Coors Field. Here, we play against teams with a slugging percentage of .440 or better over their last 20 games and starting a pitcher who walked four or more hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 36-18 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | Top | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 44 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Game of the Week. The Bears are back home following a scare in Arizona as they rallied from a 14-0 deficit to win 16-14. The defense was the story once again as they allowed 221 total yards and are now ranked No. 5 in total defense and No. 8 in scoring defense. The unit is second in the NFL in takeaways with eight and as we saw last Monday, Tampa Bay is prone to give it up and overall, the Buccaneers are ranked No. 25 in giveaways. The Buccaneers offense has been one of the big stories in the NFL but they have yet to face a defense like this and Chicago can take a script from Pittsburgh from last Monday night. In the first two games of the season, the Tampa Bay offense did not face a lot of pressure and it took advantage of that but last week, the Steelers applied a ton of pressure from their defensive front and some blitz packages. As great as Ryan Fitzpatrick has been, he looked flustered when he was under pressure and this Sunday will be even worse for him. This has been a horrible spot throughout his career as he has just one win in 18 tried coming off a loss when facing an above .500 team coming off a win. Chicago has a glaring weakness on offense and that is the passing game. Mitch Trubisky is ranked No. 26 in Total QBR but he gets a big break this week as he squares off against the worst passing defense in the NFL as Tampa Bay is allowing 363 ypg through the air. Facing Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger will do that but there are issues nonetheless and they are relying heavily on three rookies. This is the fourth game in the new system for the offense and we will continue to see improvements and this is the perfect week to get it jumpstarted. Head coach Matt Nagy said they will scale it back some but that does not mean it will be going vanilla. Going back, the Bears are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. 10* (264) Chicago Bears |
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09-30-18 | Texans +1.5 v. Colts | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 44 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our Sunday NFL Enforcer. The Colts are off to a 1-2 start following a loss in Philadelphia last week and come in as a slight favorite back home. While the Colts have looked like an improved team, especially on the defensive side of the ball, there are still concerns entering the Week Four matchup on Sunday. Andrew Luck has shown signs of his former self but he is still not 100 percent back and there are fears his shoulder is far from 100 percent after Jacoby Brissett was brought in last week to throw the ball for the 50-yard hail mary. Luck is ranked No. 13 in Total QBR. It does not help that the running game is non-existent as the Colts are averaging a mere 82.3 ypg which is No. 29 in the NFL. The Texans defense has not lived up to the hype yet this season as they are ranked No. 17 but J.J. Watt looks to be back into the groove and the rushing defense has been solid mainly because they have not allowed big plays. The passing defense has been solid as the Texans are ranked No. 12 and the Indianapolis offensive line is below average and it will be missing some pieces this week. According to Pro Football Focus, the Colts line is ranked No. 22 and the tackles have been the weakness, allowing 31 pressures through three games. The explosive Houston offense that appeared when Deshawn Watson entered the lineup last season has not been great but they are way above average and have the playmakers to compliment Watson. Houston is ranked No. 8 in total offense and Watson has thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games, the first time a Houston quarterback has done that since 2012. That is hard to ignore as it the fact the Colts are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.2 percent of their passes. Here, we play on road teams averaging 265 passing ypg and allowing 7.0 or more passing ypa in two straight games going up teams allowing 230-265 ypg passing. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (253) Houston Texans |
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09-30-18 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal +7 | Top | 34-29 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on he MONTREAL ALOUETTES for our CFL Sunday Enforcer. With Edmonton losing last night no thanks to six turnovers, the Roughriders now have a 1.5-game lead over three teams for second place in the CFL. Saskatchewan has been red hot, winning five of its last six games but that record is as deceiving as they come. The Roughriders have outgained only one opponent over this six-game stretch, and that was by just 12 yards, and they have been outgained in five straight games. Saskatchewan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after having won four out of its last five games. Montreal is having a tough season as it sits at 3-10 but there is still hope as the Alouettes are just 3.5 games out of fourth place which is not insurmountable at this point. They have split their last four games while outgaining three of their last four opponents and they turn to Johnny Manziel, who will be making his fourth start. Saskatchewan will be without a key piece of its offense today as Naaman Roosevelt will not be playing due to a knee injury. He has 48 catches for 570 yards and four touchdowns this season as he is leading the Roughriders in targets and receiving yards and is second in receptions. This is not ideal for a team that is averaging just 315.3 ypg over its last three games. The Alouettes are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record and they fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive losses against the spread, in September games. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (678) Montreal Alouettes |
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09-29-18 | Virginia Tech +5 v. Duke | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES for our ACC Game of the Year. Virginia Tech is coming off the worst loss of the young season as it lost at Old Dominion by allowing 28 fourth quarter points The Hokies were undefeated and favored by 27.5 points while they ended up allowing 632 total yards. How bad is that? That was the most yards allowed ever under defensive coordinator Bud Foster. To say they will be better this week is quite obvious but the thinking is that it will be considerably better as this week of practice has been extremely intense. With quarterback Josh Jackson sidelined for essentially the rest of the season with a broken fibula, the reigns to the offense have been turned over to backup quarterback Ryan Willis. This is not as bad as it may sound. His athleticism might be more beneficial to the offense as his size, speed, and fluidity with how he moves can help both the zone read and the passing game. He looked good coming in last week and now has had a week to practice with the ones. Duke is off to a perfect 4-0 start but it is somewhat skewed. The Blue Devils predictably destroyed North Carolina Central last week but in their first three wins over Army, Northwestern and Baylor, they were a combined -63 in yardage differential as Army was the only team they outgained. This is the first true test for Duke without quarterback Daniel Jones and All ACC cornerback Mark Gilbert. Surprisingly the Blue Devils have yet to throw an interception in 110 passes through four games and have lost just two fumbles so this will not last. Virginia Tech thrives on forcing turnovers, leading the ACC with a turnover margin of plus 1.67 and it will be more motivated this week than any other week this season looking to get back on track and prove last week was just a fluke. Here, we play on road underdogs that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg after gaining 6.0. or more rushing ypc last game. Going up against a team averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg. This situation is 25-5 (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (133) Virginia Tech Hokies |
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