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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-18-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -7 | Top | 87-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Toronto was the only home team to lose in the first round of games over the weekend as all seven home teams saw victory on their court, most coming by massive amounts. That was just the tenth home loss of the season for the Raptors and losing consecutive games at home is a rarity. We played on Toronto back on March 30 following a home loss to Oklahoma City and mentioned at the time that the Raptors have lost consecutive home games only once this season and Golden St. was involved the first time. Toronto has covered four straight games following a loss and five straight games following a cover loss. Indiana is playing some good basketball right now as it is won four straight games but the last one is the only one against a current playoff team. Of the Pacers 20 road wins the entire season, only five have come against teams that are competing in the postseason. Toronto meanwhile has won 18 games against the top ten teams in the NBA power rankings which is the second most of any team in the league behind Golden St. Indiana has covered just two of the last 12 meetings in this series and based on the bounce angle (playing on the team that lost the previous game in the playoffs), we are seeing value considering the line is the same from Game One and these are situations where linesmakers shift the line but did not do so here. 10* (518) Toronto Raptors |
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04-17-16 | Hornets +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 91-123 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
As mentioned yesterday, the Boston and Atlanta series had the potential to be the most competitive series in the NBA First Round Playoffs and this one should be a close second. Miami finished the regular season with a brutal loss in Boston as it blew a 24-point halftime lead and lost by 10 points which took away the chance to win the Southwest Division but because of tiebreakers and an Atlanta loss the same night, the Heat were still able to secure their home floor for the first round. Charlotte had a surprisingly solid season which kind of came out of nowhere after a 0-3 start and a lull in the middle of the season where it went on a 4-14 run but that shows how good the Hornets were in the other stages of the season. Since the beginning of March, Charlotte is 18-6 over its last 24 games but despite having the same overall record as three other teams, the tiebreaker did them in to fall into the No. 6 seed. These teams split the season series with each team winning on the opponent home court once and going back, the road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings while the underdog has covered five of the last seven. 10* (511) Charlotte Hornets |
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04-17-16 | Brewers +135 v. Pirates | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
After taking the opener of this series on Friday, the Brewers were shutout last night which was the third time in five games on this roadtrip they have been held to one run or fewer. They have faced some stout pitching in those three games though but that changes today. Pittsburgh snapped a four-game slide with the victory on Saturday and they have been trending the wrong way following a 4-0 start. The Pirates have won just twice in their last eight games and after scoring 21 runs in those first four games, they have tallied only 27 runs over the last eight. Milwaukee sends Zach Davies to the hill who was called up from Colorado Springs to take the place of Matt Garza and this is a great opportunity to display his skills and remain here for a while. Davies went 3-2 with a 3.71 ERA in six starts as a September callup last season and he allowed just two runs in two starts in the Minors following a solid spring training with the Brewers. He will be opposed by Juan Nicasio who was tremendous in his opener but tied his career high with five walks while being tagged for four runs and six hits in three innings against Detroit last time out. After four bad years in Colorado, he pitched well out of the bullpen with the Dodgers last season but as a starter, the jury is still out. 10* (905) Milwaukee Brewers |
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04-16-16 | Celtics +5.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Boston could not have come into the postseason after a better win as it trailed Miami 62-38 at the break but went on to outscore the Heat by 34 points in the second half. It was an odd dynamic with the Celtics winning and the Hawks losing on the final night and Atlanta getting rewarded with the home court edge in this series but it is not a huge advantage. The Hawks have just the sixth best home record of all Eastern Conference playoff teams and actually lost 22 games outright this season when favored. Boston showed how good it can be when it plays defense and the wakeup call against Miami in the first half could not have been a better thing for the Celtics heading into the postseason. Last season, they were swept in the first round against Cleveland but the games were pretty competitive and they are a much improved team from then. Boston finished fourth in the NBA in defensive rating thanks to averaging 9.2 steals per game which was the second most and that allowed them to play at a fast pace so they are well rounded on both sides. The Celtics tied for the fourth best road record in the Eastern Conference which included impressive wins over Golden St., Oklahoma City and Cleveland so stealing a game in Atlanta is far from out of the question. This looks to be the most competitive series in the first round and we should see that right from the start. 10* (505) Boston Celtics |
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04-16-16 | Nationals v. Phillies +170 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
After a 0-4 start, the Phillies are 5-2 over their last seven games despite a loss last night in the series opener against Washington. The starting pitching has led the way as Philadelphia has posted a 2.73 ERTA from its rotation, a huge improvement from a season ago. The Nationals have jumped out to an 8-1 start which is the best record in baseball thanks to six straight wins. They are a perfect 3-0 on the road following their 9-1 victory last night and with Max Scherzer taking the hill, many will be backing them again at a huge price. Scherzer is coming off an average effort against the Braves which was the second time in two starts he has faced Atlanta. While facing the Phillies may not seem like a daunting task, this is a much different team that he dominated last season and one that will not go down lightly. Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola who did not have his best stuff last time out against the Padres but still has a 3.21 ERA through two starts. Most impressive though is his 17:0 K:BB ratio which has put his WHIP at 0.71. Going back to last season, the Phillies have lost his last four starts but all have come by just one run so all could have gone either way. Additionally, the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (958) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-16-16 | Rockets +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 78-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Golden St. broke the regular season NBA win total by getting No. 73 on Wednesday against Memphis in pretty easy fashion. The Warriors are the reigning NBA Champions and of course are once again favored to win it again but are certainly paying the price in Game One of this series. This is a rematch of the Western Conference Finals from last season and while the Rockets underachieved the entire season, they will not be an easy out. They come in with some solid momentum as they won their final three games to claim the No. 8 seed in the conference and caught a scheduling break which hurts the Warriors playing a game at home starting at 12:30 local time. While Golden St. was nearly unbeatable at home this season, it went just 3-5 ATS over its final eight home games and while it has the ability to cover a spread this big, asking the Warriors to do so in the first game of the postseason may be too much to ask for. The Rockets went 5-2 ATS this season when getting seven or more points including a close cover that came here against the Warriors in their only meeting at Golden St. Additionally, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (503) Houston Rockets |
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04-15-16 | Giants +166 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The Giants and Dodgers open their second series of the season after San Francisco took three of the first four games to open the season. The Dodgers bounced back with a series win against Arizona as they avoided former teammate Zack Greinke and carry a two-game winning streak into this series opener. The Giants are off an opposite series as they won Game One in Colorado but lost the final two games after allowing 21 combined runs but things like that happen in Colorado. The good news is that San Francisco goes back to the top of the rotation heading into this three-game set. This is already the second matchup between Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw with the latter taking the first meeting despite not picking up the win. Kershaw went eight innings and allowed just two runs, both of which were solo homeruns including one by Bumgarner, and he is a significant favorite in the second matchup at home which is too much based on this matchup. Bumgarner pitched well against the Dodgers after a pretty average start in Milwaukee to open the season and this is a matchup that he has flourished in. He has dominated Los Angeles throughout his career and he has beaten Kershaw all three times they have matched up in Los Angeles. 10* (911) San Francisco Giants |
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04-15-16 | Braves +165 v. Marlins | Top | 6-3 | Win | 165 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
The Braves burnt us earlier in the week with a pair of close losses Tuesday and Wednesday and we stayed off them yesterday as they put up another loss to fall to 0-9 on the season, one loss shy from matching their 0-10 start from 1988. The first nine games came against Washington and St. Louis which are both contenders in their respective divisions and now they head to Miami but are still getting a big number despite the opposition. The Marlins took two of three against the Mets but are still under .500 and are in the rare position of being a massive chalk despite having a losing record. Miami turns to Wei-Yin Chen who was its big free agent pickup in the offseason but he got off to a rough start as he allowed five runs on nine hits in five innings against the Tigers. He skipped his last start after getting hit in the elbow on a comebacker which came after a limited spring where he posted just six innings so he is clearly not in form. The Braves look for Williams Perez to end this skid and while he lasted just 4.2 innings, he had some back luck as he allowed just three hits and now faces a Marlins offense that has scored three runs or less in four of seven games. 10* (907) Atlanta Braves |
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04-14-16 | Reds +145 v. Cubs | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
The Reds were able to plate a run in the top of the first last night but then Alfredo Simon came out and was tagged for five runs and did not even get out of the first inning. It was an unfortunate setback but I expect Cincinnati to bounce back tonight. The Cubs are off to a 7-1 start which is tied for the best in baseball and unlike some teams in the early part of the baseball season, they are living up to early expectations. Chicago comes in as a big favorite again tonight behind Jason Hammel who tossed a quality outing in his first start this season but failed to pick up the victory. He was not totally sharp though which has been the case for a while now. Last season, he went 5-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 17 starts before the All-Star break, but posted a 5.10 ERA in 14 starts after and was 0-1 with a 14.54 ERA in two playoff starts. Additionally, he put up a 4.63 ERA in six spring starts. The Reds send out Raisel Iglesias who is already making his third start of the season. His first two starts were great as he tossed quality outings in both and he has been very solid since making his Major League debut a season ago. From August 1 through the end of his season on September 13, Iglesias had a 3.13 ERA with a 62/15 K/BB ratio in 54.2 innings and overall, his 1.14 WHIP was very impressive. 10* (959) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-13-16 | Clippers v. Suns -4.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
There was no early line on this game due to the Clippers situation where they are heading to Phoenix without their top five scorers as all are sitting this one out. Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin and Jamal Crawford are resting while J.J. Reddick is nursing a foot injury. Los Angeles has nothing to play for as it is already locked into the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference with its first round opponent still unknown. The Clippers are playing at a high level as they have won six straight games and 10 of their last 11 but only one of those came with some of the regulars sitting. That was a victory at Utah but Crawford did play in that game and led the team with 30 points. The dreadful season for Phoenix is nearly in the books but it can close on a high note as any thoughts about tanking can be tossed out here as the Suns are locked into their current lottery position. They lost here last time out against Sacramento but had won two straight prior to that, both of which came on the road. The home floor has not been great but tonight is a rare opportunity to notch a win against a second string team. They have actually fared well in these spots, going 12-7 ATS at home against winning teams while going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* (728) Phoenix Suns |
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04-13-16 | Reds +176 v. Cubs | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
The Cubs came into the season as favorites to win the World Series and they are not disappointing thus far as they are off to a 6-1 start following a series opening win on Monday. After a day off, they are back at it again and with the home opener and all of the excitement that comes with it out of the way, the Reds are in a good spot here. They are off to a 5-2 start which included a solid series win over Pittsburgh and they have a run differential of +11 with the two losses coming by just three combined runs. Cincinnati is loaded with value here as this line is completely overinflated due to the Cubs early expectations and success and John Lackey should not be laying this type of lumber. He had a poor opening start in Arizona where he allowed six runs on eight hits in six innings but the offense bailed him out. While he was solid in two seasons in St. Louis, all of his success came at Busch Stadium where most Cardinals pitchers thrive so a switch to Wrigley Field could end up costing him. Cincinnati turns to Alfredo Simon who was solid in his opener against the Pirates, allowing just one earned run in five innings. He pitched in Detroit last season where he was horrible but is back in Cincinnati where he thrived from 2012-14. Additionally, he is 3-0 with a 1.10 ERA in five starts against the Cubs. 10* (907) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-13-16 | Kings +15 v. Rockets | Top | 81-116 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Must win situations can be over exaggerated and in those cases, lines are overinflated which is what we are seeing here. The situation is very simple for Houston as if it wins tonight, it is into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. The Rockets easily defeated Minnesota on Monday to keep their hopes alive so while winning here seems like the obvious choice, winning by what they are favored by is not. This line is inflated way too much based on the must win scenario as well as because of the Kings not playing with their full roster. That being said, this line is at a place where Houston will start sitting players should a lead become this big but I do not even think that is going to happen. Sacramento has played three straight road games without DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo, both of which will be out again tonight, but the Kings covered all three of those games, winning two of those outright. They lost at Portland but covered the 13-point spread and they are getting a bucket more here against a team that is three games worse than the Blazers. Houston has underachieved all season and the Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (701) Sacramento Kings |
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04-13-16 | Heat v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
The final day of the regular season is usually filled with playoff drama and while there is just one playoff spot up for grabs overall, there are still plenty of scenarios as far as seeding goes. In the Eastern Conference, No. 3 through No. 6 are still up for grabs depending on what happens tonight and the team in the best position based on the matchups is Boston. There was no early line on this game for no apparent reason so we had to wait to get it in but the Celtics are the play here. We lost with Detroit last night as Miami won a surprising road game against a top tiered team and is now just 5-15 on the highway against teams currently locked into playoff positions. Based on the games and matchups, the Heat control their own destiny for taking the Southeast Division and grabbing the No. 3 seed but if they lose and the Hawks beat the Wizards, the division title and No. 3 spot will go to Atlanta and in that case, Boston moves up to No. 4 and Miami drops to No. 5. The Celtics have dropped two straight so winning before the postseason is a priority and with that could come home court advantage in the first round against this same Miami team. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on no rest while Boston is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 home games. 10* (718) Boston Celtics |
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04-13-16 | Braves +195 v. Nationals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
***Pitching change*** Tanner Roark is in for Strasburg and this is still a play on the Braves even with lower odds. Roark had a rough first outing this season as he allowed four runs, three earned on nine hits and three walks in just four innings of work. After a solid 2014 season, he regressed last year to post a 4.38 ERA. 1.31 WHIP and .279 BAA. To his credit, he has been solid against Atlanta but his last start has to be a major concern. We lost a tough one with the Braves last night as Bryce Harper hit a two-out, two-run double in the eighth inning to break a scoreless tie and they fell to 0-7 on the season. Atlanta has competed better than that record shows and it is once again getting a great underdog price. This is the worst start for Atlanta since 1988 when it opened the season 0-10. As mentioned yesterday, Washington has dominated Atlanta thus far but after last night, the four wins have come by a combined six runs only. The Nationals are winning which is the big factor obviously but we have to take advantage of the value which is also aided by the pitching matchup. Stephen Strasburg takes the hill for the Nationals and this will be his second start against the Braves this season, the first resulting in a win. He allowed just one run over six innings but posted a 1.50 WHIP due to six hits and three walks given up. Atlanta counters with Matt Wisler who pitched a solid outing in his first start as he allowed four runs over 6.2 innings Friday against St. Louis, taking a lead into the seventh before surrendering a game-tying homer. He allowed just hits and just one walk, good for a 1.20 WHIP and the Braves are encouraged after that effort. While he had an average 20165 season, his spring was a great as he posted a 3.95 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over four starts. 10* (903) Atlanta Braves |
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04-12-16 | Heat v. Pistons -2.5 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Detroit is heading to the postseason for the first time in seven years as the rebuilding job that Stan Van Gundy has done has come much quicker. The Pistons clinched a playoff berth against Chicago last week and followed it up with a home win over Washington on Friday which means they have been off for three days which is a significant edge this time of season. Detroit is 10-3 in its last 13 games at home and this is the final regular season home game which certainly has some meaning during this special season. Miami is a half-game ahead of Boston and Charlotte for fourth place in the Eastern Conference and if it wins out, it clinches home court in the first round of the postseason. The problem is that it will not be easy and will be playing two teams that will not be sitting down. Miami has not won on the road against a team heading to the playoffs since February 19 when it defeated Atlanta by four points. On the season, the Heat are 4-15 on the highway against teams currently locked into playoff positions so clearly they struggle in these situations. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games while the Pistons are 31-15-2 ATS in their last 48 home games. 10* (504) Detroit Pistons |
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04-12-16 | Braves +180 v. Nationals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Atlanta was not expected to do much this season and thus far, that has come to fruition. The Braves are off to a 0-6 start following a 6-4 loss last night in the opening game of this series as the pitching once again struggled. The more the losses keep piling up, the better the value gets however. Washington is off to a 4-1 start with three of those wins coming against the Braves but the three victories have come by a total of just five runs. The Nationals are coming off a disappointing season so they are off to the start they needed but the public will continue to drive their numbers up. The Braves send Jhoulys Chacin to the hill for his first start with the Braves. He tossed 7.2 shutout innings in his first start that took place in the Minors so he would not have a huge layoff following spring training and his first regular season start. He had a solid spring training and even though he is at the bottom end of the rotation, he has the ability to help this staff immensely. Washington counters with Gio Gonzalez who is also making his first regular season start of the season. He is coming off a shaky season where he had a decent ERA but posted a 1.42 WHIP which is not very good and he followed that up with a 1.63 WHIP in five starts this spring. Going back, the Nationals are 1-5 in his last six home starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (953) Atlanta Braves |
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04-11-16 | Rockets -3 v. Wolves | Top | 129-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Houston looks to inch closer to a possible playoff berth and despite sitting in ninth place in the Western Conference, the Rockets are in the best position should there be any ties at the end of the regular season. The Rockets currently have the tiebreaker over Utah with a superior conference record and against the Mavericks because of a better Southwest Division mark. There will be no scoreboard watching which is a good thing as the Houston game tips off an hour before the Dallas/Utah game. A loss by Utah puts Houston into the No. 8 spot and it hosts Sacramento on Wednesday with a chance to control its own destiny. Minnesota is tied for being the second hottest team in the NBA as it has won three straight games, all of which have come on the road including a pair of shockers over Golden St. and Portland. The wins marked Minnesota's first road trip sweep of at least three games since 2005 so this is a definite letdown situation for the Timberwolves. They have had their share of struggles against Houston as they have lost six straight meetings and 10 of the last 11. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400 while the Timberwolves are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (713) Houston Rockets |
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04-11-16 | Wizards v. Nets +6 | Top | 120-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Washington is coming off an upset win over Charlotte on Sunday and now it hits the road in a rare situation where it goes from significant home underdog to significant road favorite. The Wizards are not going to the postseason so there is little to play for and being motivated is a key factor, especially when asking a team to lay a number on the highway. Additionally, they have struggled this season when playing with no rest as they are 6-13 straight up and against the number. John Wall is listed as questionable but it is pretty much a guarantee that he will be shut down for the rest of the season as to not further aggravate his knee. Also, Bradley Beal will be sitting most likely. Brooklyn has had its issues all season long and it is currently riding an eight-game losing skid but seven of those games came on the road with a home game sandwiched between games against New York and Washington. The Nets have a chance to at least close strong with a win here and then on Wednesday against the Raptors that will likely be sitting starters. They are 11-6 ATS as underdogs in this price range while going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (708) Brooklyn Nets |
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04-11-16 | Padres +117 v. Phillies | Top | 4-3 | Win | 117 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
The Phillies enter this game in a rare role as the favorite partly due to the fact they took the final two games in New York against the Mets over the weekend. After allowing 26 runs through their first four games that saw them go 0-4, they allowed just two runs on Saturday and Sunday but do not expect that to continue. The Padres also had a forgettable start to the season as they were swept at home against the Dodgers and the offense did not put up a single run, getting outscored 25-0. They bounced back in a big way, scoring 29 runs in the first two games at Colorado before losing the series finale yesterday 6-3. They head to Philadelphia hoping to get a better result from Andrew Cashner who had a rough opening start against the Dodgers as he allowed five runs in four innings but now faces a much weaker offense on Monday. The Phillies are hitting just .230 on the season which is third lowest in the National League and have struggled against Cashner as he has posted a 1.96 ERA over three starts all of which were quality outings. Aaron Nola pitched well in his season opener against the Reds but the offense did nothing to help him out nor did the bullpen which gave up two runs in the bottom of the ninth. That bullpen owns a 7.94 ERA which is third worst in all of baseball. 10* (901) San Diego Padres |
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04-10-16 | Raptors -4.5 v. Knicks | Top | 93-89 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Toronto won on Friday despite resting three starters as it defeated Indiana at home by 13 points and it still has a shot at the top seed in the Eastern Conference as the Cavaliers refuse to lock it down. The Raptors' chances were kept alive Saturday with Cleveland's 105-102 loss in Chicago and they now trail the Cavaliers by just 2.5 games. They hold the tiebreaker by going 2-1 in the season series so winning out is the option at this point while hoping the Cavaliers drop their last two games against Atlanta and Detroit. The good news is Cleveland is off today so Toronto only knows it needs to win and with Brooklyn and Philadelphia being the final two games, winning out is a great possibility. The Knicks won at Philadelphia on Friday but they have struggled to remain consistent at the end of the season as they are 10-22 over their last 32 games and only one of those wins have been against a playoff bound team. Overall, New York has only seven wins this season against the top ten in the NBA and while this is the final home game of the season, getting a big win over an elite team that is still playing for a lot does not look to happen at this point. The Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a winning road record while Toronto is 12-6 ATS this season on the road against losing teams. 10* (517) Toronto Raptors |
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04-10-16 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks +170 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Arizona will look to avoid its second straight series loss to open the season as it hosts the Cubs in the series finale on Sunday. The Diamondbacks dropped the opener before taking Game Two but could not capitalize last night with their ace on the hill as Zack Greinke has yet to win with his new team. Shelby Miller will also be looking to pick up his first win with his new team after getting pounded by Colorado in his opener by allowing six runs on eight hits in six innings. It was a surprising dud from Miller who was sensational in Atlanta last season despite a lack of wins thanks to the worst run support in baseball. He has been solid against Chicago throughout his career, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in six starts and one relief appearance. Jake Arrieta started right where he left off last season as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Angels in his season opener. Going against him can be tough but there is a ton of value in this line, especially being on the road and even more so considering he closed as just a -137 favorite against Los Angeles. 10* (964) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-10-16 | Mavs v. Clippers -5 | Top | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
The Mavericks remain in the drivers seat for the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference following their victory over Memphis on Friday which was their sixth straight win but the No. 6 seed is still within grasp. Winning out will be tough starting here on Sunday and then traveling to Utah tomorrow which is fighting for a playoff spot and feasibly still has a chance to pass Dallas. The winning streak has obviously come at a perfect time based on the time of season but also because the Mavericks are in the midst of some injury issues with Chandler Parsons out for the season, Deron Williams now out with a sports hernia and now J.J. Barea, who has been lights out during the run, possibly out with a groin injury. The Clippers have locked up the No. 4 seed in the conference and are coming off a win at Utah which was a surprise considering Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan remained in Los Angeles for rest. They will be back today though as while rest is good, too much cannot happen and Doc Rivers will play the starters today and likely rest them when they travel to Phoenix Wednesday. The Clippers have won four games in a row and would like to keep the momentum going into the postseason and going back, they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win. 10* (506) Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-09-16 | Celtics v. Hawks -5.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The Hawks defeated Toronto on Thursday for their second straight victory to keep pace in the Eastern Conference as they are part of a four-team logjam that are separated by just one game between No. 3 and No. 6. Atlanta is tied with Boston for third place while Miami and Charlotte are just one game back but the Hawks are the one team than can control their own destiny and land the coveted No. 3 spot. That is important since it would mean missing the Cavaliers until the Conference Finals. Atlanta tries to cap this homestand with a 3-1 mark in its last regular-season game at Philips Arena. It has held every opponent on it to below 40 percent from the field, limiting Toronto to 38.1 percent the other night. Boston can take over the No. 3 spot with a win as it looks to extend its current four-game winning streak. Winning at Golden St. was huge but the other three have come against the hapless Lakers and the injury riddled Pelicans and Bucks. The Celtics are a game under .500 on the road but they have struggled in these spots as they are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record including 1-7 ATS when the home team has a winning percentage of .600 or better while the Hawks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win. 10* (704) Atlanta Hawks |
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04-09-16 | Twins +140 v. Royals | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with the Twins last night as they took a 3-2 lead in the eighth inning only two give up two runs in the bottom of the frame to lose by a run. They are now 0-4 to start the season which is similar to last season when they started 0-3 but the bleeding was stopped with the same pitcher then that is now going tonight. The Twins have never started 0-5 in a season and this team does not want to be the first. As mentioned yesterday, the offense has been struggling and while the thought was last night would be the spot to get roiling, tonight presents a better opportunity. Ian Kennedy gets the ball for the Royals and after signing the largest contract by a pitcher in team history, he came out the gates in horrible form. He posted a 6.30 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in six spring starts and still looks far from the same pitcher that had a magnificent 2011 season. Additionally, Kennedy is 6-17 with a 5.49 ERA in 32 career starts against American League teams. Tommy Milone tossed 7.2 shutout innings a season ago to get the Twins first win of the season and he looks to duplicate that. He is coming off a solid season, a great spring and last season against the Royals, he went 2-0 with a 3.30 ERA and posted a 1.89 ERA over the final three matchups, working at least six innings and yielding two runs or less in each. 10* (923) Minnesota Twins |
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04-09-16 | Cardinals v. Braves +131 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Following a 7-4 loss on Friday, the Braves remain winless as they are off to a 0-3 start which is their worst start since 2012 but they have a good opportunity tonight to get into the win column and at a solid price on top of it. The Cardinals won for the first time this season after opening 2016 by getting swept in Pittsburgh and while the victory could create some momentum, they are overpriced in this road situation. Atlanta got a solid effort from Julio Teheran in its first game this season as he tossed a quality effort against the Nationals but the bullpen blew the game in the ninth and eventually in extra innings. Teheran has been the Braves most consistent pitcher over the last few years and has been at his best pitcher at Turner Field. Last season, he went 8-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 17 home starts compared to going 3-6 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 16 road outings. This has been the case throughout his whole career as he has a 2.83 ERA at home and a 4.09 ERA on the highway. In two career home starts against the Cardinals, he has tossed 13 innings without allowing a single run. Carlos Martinez makes his season debut tonight following a solid 2015 campaign where he posted a 3.01 ERA over 29 starts. He did put up a 1.29 WHIP and allowed a .250 BAA which are not horrible numbers but far from great. 10* (908) Atlanta Braves |
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04-08-16 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks +137 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 137 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
The Cubs are off to a perfect 3-0 start thanks to an offense that has been bashing the ball, scoring 29 runs over those three games. Expectations are obviously high in Chicago so the moneylines will continue to be shaded their way. Arizona is 1-3 following a loss in the opener of this series yesterday and while the offense has been solid, the pitching has been dreadful which is a surprise because of a very strong top end of the rotation. Robbie Ray looks to right the ship tonight and he looks to be in good position to do so. He went just 5-12 last season but posted a solid 3.52 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 29 starts. He had a great spring by going 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA and striking out 20 in 18 innings over five starts. Chicago counters with Jason Hammel who had a solid season a year ago but faltered late. He went 5-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 17 starts before the All-Star break, but posted a 5.10 ERA in 14 starts after and was 0-1 with a 14.54 ERA in two playoff starts. He put up a 4.63 ERA in six spring starts and Chase Field has not been kind of late as he has allowed 12 runs in 12.2 innings in his last two starts in Arizona. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-08-16 | Grizzlies +6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 93-103 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Dallas defeated Houston last time out which has put the Rockets in a situation they may not be able to recover from but more importantly, the Mavericks are in great shape to make the postseason. They have won five straight games to move into seventh place in the Western Conference and they control their own destiny and while the rest of the schedule is not easy, they are likely going to be facing some teams that will be resting players. Dallas is now 22-17 at home which is actually the worst home record in the NBA among teams that are currently sitting in a playoff spot and the Mavericks have covered just two of their last eight home games. Memphis snapped a six-game losing skid with a win over Chicago on Tuesday and it was a huge, must needed victory. The Grizzlies have been fighting the major injury bug and they are slowly coming back which is a good sign heading into the postseason. They are fighting for playoff positioning as they are currently in fifth place but are just two games out of seventh place and three games out of eighth place, two positions no teams want to be part of. They face Golden St. twice and the Clippers to close out the season so this is feasibly the last winnable regular season game so it is a must. The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (515) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-08-16 | Twins +145 v. Royals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
After getting swept by Kansas City in three games to end last season, the Twins opened this season by getting swept in Baltimore. They managed just six runs against the Orioles so while the pitching was solid, the offense needs to obviously pick things up with tonight being a good spot to do so. Kansas City split its two-game set with the Mets as its offense was also pretty stale and the Royals look to be overpriced in this spot. Yordano Ventura gets the ball for the Royals and he was hit or miss last season as he posted a 4.08 ERA in 28 starts. He struggled last spring and that carried over into the regular season as he put up a 4.73 ERA prior to the All Star break. He had an even worse spring this year as he put up a 9.00 ERA in five starts covering 15 innings. Ervin Santana will make his second start after his first career opening day start was cut short by a 70-minute rain delay. He closed last season by putting up seven straight quality starts and he carried that over into spring training as he went 2-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in five starts over 20.1 innings. Even though he did not defeat Kansas City last season, he put up a 2.40 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in two starts, both being quality outings. 10* (971) Minnesota Twins |
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04-08-16 | Pacers v. Raptors +4.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 102 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
We played against Toronto last night as the Hawks were in a near must win situation based on their situation in the Eastern Conference standings and the fact they were looking to avoid the season series sweep against Toronto. Now the Raptors find themselves in a must win situation. They have the No. 2 spot locked up in the conference but are still mathematically alive for the No. 1 seed albeit very unlikely as they have to win out and the Cavaliers have to lose their remaining three games. The final three games for Toronto are against New York, Philadelphia and Brooklyn so winning out is very likely but it has to start here and the Raptors will be out to make up for the loss last night. They have lost consecutive games only five times this December and only one of those involved a loss in the second game at home and that happened to come against Golden St. and overall since December, they are 13-5 in 18 games following a loss. The Pacers are fighting it out with Detroit for the No. 7 spot in the Eastern Conference as they hold a half-game lead after three straight wins including a victory against Cleveland on Wednesday. Going back, the Pacers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points while the Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing on no rest. 10* (510) Toronto Raptors |
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04-07-16 | Wolves v. Kings -4.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
Following three straight losses by double-digits, Minnesota pulled off the unthinkable as after trailing by as many as 17 points, the Timberwolves rallied to defeat Golden St. in overtime on Tuesday. Even though there was a day off in-between, they still have to feeling pretty good about that victory which puts them in a tough spot here. They have been one of the best teams in the league when playing good teams as they are 14-3 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record but are just 12-27 ATS this season against losing teams. Minnesota picked up its biggest victory of the season and it has been having trouble following any sort of victory as the Timberwolves are 3-14 over their last 17 games following a win. The Kings were defeated at home against Portland on Tuesday which snapped a six-game cover streak by Sacramento and it looks to bounce back here to try and make it five wins in their last six games following a loss. Getting up for a team such as Minnesota may not be easy at time but in this case, the Kings will have plenty of motivation as they have dropped the first three games of this season series and look to avoid the four-game sweep. 10* (708) Sacramento Kings |
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04-07-16 | Raptors v. Hawks -6 | Top | 87-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
These teams met last Wednesday and we were on Toronto based on the fact the Raptors were coming off an embarrassing home loss by 19 points against Oklahoma City while Atlanta was riding a four-game winning streak so it set up very well for the Raptors. They have now won three of four games with the lone loss coming at San Antonio and while still alive for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, time is running out on the Raptors. Toronto is just 5-6 over its last 11 road games, three wins coming against non-playoff teams, another against Indiana which took overtime and the last against a Memphis team completely decimated by injuries. Atlanta still has plenty to play for as it is a half-game ahead of Miami in the Southeast Division, with the Heat also having a home game tonight, and it is just a game ahead of Charlotte. While the Hawks control their own destiny, any slip up and they can fall down to as far as sixth place in the Eastern Conference so each game is huge at this point. They are coming off a win over Phoenix but failed to cover the number which was their fourth straight cover loss so we like the spot they are in here to get it back. 10* (704) Atlanta Hawks |
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04-07-16 | Phillies +126 v. Reds | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
The Phillies lost in brutal fashion yesterday as they held a 2-1 lead after the first inning and that score held all the way until the bottom of the ninth inning until closer Dalier Hinojosa allowed two runs on four hits in just a third of an inning to blow the save. Philadelphia is now 0-2 as the offense has not been able to do much but that should change this afternoon. The Reds send Robert Stephenson to the mound and he will be making his first ever Major League start. He was pretty average last season in the minors as he posted a 4.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 11 starts at the AAA level but the real indication of his struggles took place this spring as he struggled mightily, posting a 9.58 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in four starts covering 10.1 innings. The Phillies counter with Charlie Morton who is making his first ever start here after seven years with the Pirates. He was pretty average last season but had a decent spring with a 4.63 ERA but more importantly, a 1.29 WHIP so he should be more than ready. One of his best starts last season came right here as he allowed no runs on five hits in seven innings and this has been a solid stop as he has a 2.27 ERA over his last five starts at Great American. 10* (901) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-06-16 | Rockets v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
This line is off and we will take advantage of the home underdog here in what could be considered an early play-in game for the postseason. The winner of this game controls their own destiny as Dallas is currently in seventh place in the Western Conference so winning out clinches the spot while Houston, which sits in ninth place, would get into the postseason if it wins out because a tie with Dallas gives it the tiebreaker thanks to a 3-1 season series win. We won with the Rockets on Sunday but that was at home and it was a typical situation where they step up their play. They now have 12 wins over the NBA top ten which is seventh most in the league so when they want to play against the top teams, they in fact do it. Dallas lost three of four games after Chandler Parsons went down with a season ending knee injury but the Mavericks have recovered to find the optimal rotation as they have won four straight games to remain on the inside of the playoff picture. This is the first of five games to close the season that are against playoff competing teams so it will not be an easy finish but it is imperative the Mavericks take care of business at home. They have covered four of their last five games after a win while Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win. 10* (512) Dallas Mavericks |
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04-06-16 | Pistons +2 v. Magic | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
We played against Detroit last night as the Pistons were pounded by Miami, trailing by as many as 23 points but the situation turns around tonight. They were coming off a big road win at Chicago which improved their playoff positioning and the good news about last night as they lost no ground as the Bulls lost in Memphis as well. Detroit still has a two-game edge on Chicago with four games left so a win here goes a long way. The Pistons have been average on the road this season but have performed well against the teams they should be defeating as they have won five of their last eight against non-playoff teams. Orlando defeated an injury-riddled Memphis team last time out and give the Magic credit for not throwing in the towel too early this season as they have been playing well of late with wins in four of their last five games. A win over Indiana was a best of the bunch and the only real quality win as this season, Orlando is 12-30 against teams ranked within the top 16 of their NBA, with Detroit being part of that group. That .286 winning percentage is the worst of any team ranked in the top 20. The Pistons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on no rest while going 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. 10* (505) Detroit Pistons |
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04-06-16 | Tigers +140 v. Marlins | Top | 7-3 | Win | 140 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Detroit and Miami got their season started yesterday in what was a great opener as the Tigers prevailed 8-7 in extra innings after blowing leads of 5-0 and 7-3. Had the Tigers lost, it would have been a tough one to swallow after a solid performance from Justin Verlander. But Detroit can use that momentum as it goes for the sweep in the short two-game set. The Tigers send Anibal Sanchez to the hill and he looks to bounce back from a rough 2015 season where he posted a disappointing 4.99 ERA in his third full season with Detroit. However, a 1.28 WHIP over those 25 starts shows it was not nearly as bad as that ERA shows. On the other side, it is no secret that Jose Fernandez has been unbeatable at home and that is a literal statement. He has never lost at Marlins Park, going a perfect 17-0 in 26 starts with the Marlins going 23-3 in those games. This moneyline is attracting a lot of action on the home side as the public is riding Fernandez in what may be considered a lower than anticipated number. The Tigers have flourished in Interleague games while Miami has been the opposite and going back, the Tigers are 10-3 in Sanchez' last 13 starts. 10* (975) Detroit Tigers |
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04-05-16 | Blazers -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 115-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
The Blazers had a four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday but it obviously caught the wrong team at the wrong time as the Blazers were thumped at Golden St. by 25 points. Unfortunately for them, the Warriors were coming off a loss at home against Boston the previous night so Portland was caught in a situation it could do nothing about. Now it needs to bounce back and could potentially leapfrog Memphis for fifth place in the Western Conference should it win here and the Grizzlies lose at home against Chicago. Additionally, the Blazers need to continue winning as they are just 2.5 games out of missing the playoffs altogether. Sacramento pulled off an upset at Denver on Sunday as it won without DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo but both will be back tonight which is fine as it keeping the number in check. The Kings have a better home record than the Blazers road record however they have struggled in these spots, going just 3-13 this season as home underdogs. Going back, the Kings are 15-36-2 ATS in their last 53 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (717) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-05-16 | Rockies +143 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Colorado was able to spoil the debut of Zack Greinke with the Diamondbacks as it lit him up for seven earned runs on nine hits in just four innings. The Rockies won as big underdogs and as no surprise, the public is all over Arizona to bounce back tonight but I think they are very overpriced based on this pitching matchup. Colorado did not get a great effort from Jorge de La Rosa last night and tonight it turns to Chad Bettis. He was anything but spectacular last season based on his overall numbers but he was much better than what those show. He posted a 4.23 ERA in 20 starts but he had just one blowup where he allowed 10 runs over 2.1 innings against the Angels and take that away and his ERA falls to 3.51 in his other 19 starts. Of those 20 total outings, 11 were quality outings and he allowed more than three runs only five time total. Shelby Miller is also making his Arizona debut as comes over from Atlanta following a solid season with the Braves. He struggled mightily in his last spring training outing and overall he posted a 4.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five outings covering 20.2 innings. This is where expectations take over reality early in the season. 10* (905) Colorado Rockies |
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04-05-16 | Pistons v. Heat -3 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the questionable status of Dwyane Wade but after participating in some Monday workouts, all signs point to his return tonight against the Pistons. Miami is back home following a three-game west coast roadtrip where it went 1-2 and failed to cover all three games. The Heat are now tied for fifth place in the Eastern Conference but things are extremely close as they trail Atlanta by just a half-game in the Southeast Division and they are also a half-game behind Boston so a strong ending to the season could vault them up to as high as third place. Miami is 25-13 at home so it needs to take advantage of that with three of its final six games taking place in Miami. Detroit picked up a massive win on Saturday as it won in Chicago to move two games up on the Bulls for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. It was a rare road win and we say rare considering it was the first road game since March 14, a span of nine home games in-between. That puts the Pistons in a tough spot tonight as they have covered just one of their last six games following an ATS win. Meanwhile, the Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (704) Miami Heat |
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04-05-16 | Pelicans v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The Sixers find themselves in the rare spot of favorites tonight and it is one that we will take advantage of. Judging by the public consensus, no one wants any part of Philadelphia as New Orleans is the second biggest public consensus of the night. The Sixers have lost 12 straight games but they have covered half of those and one look at the schedule will show how tough it has been as they have been double-digit underdogs in eight of those including each of the last five. The Sixers have been favorites just three times this season and they have won and covered all three of those games. The Pelicans are incredibly banged up right now yet have won two straight games with no one player from the original starting lineup. They have now covered four straight games but getting up to play Philadelphia is a different story and with a game at Boston tomorrow night, a lookahead is more than possible. Going back, the are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while the Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Sixers stay perfect in this role. 10* (702) Philadelphia 76ers |
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04-04-16 | Cubs v. Angels +128 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
The Cubs are the favorites to win the World Series this season so it comes as no surprise they are a sizable favorite on the road in the 2016 season opener. While spring training statistics can sometimes be overrated, they cannot be overlooked completely. In this case, Jake Arrieta had a pretty rough spring as he posted a 5.56 ERA in four starts so he clearly was not at the top of his game. He is coming off an incredible season last year and he was especially effective on the road but the one area where he has struggled has been early in the season. April and May have been his two worst months and in his career, he has a 3.07 ERA after the All Star break compared to a 4.16 ERA prior to the break. Garrett Richards was not much better this spring with a 5.52 ERA but he posted a 1.16 WHIP which is an indication that he pitched better than what his ERA states. He had a great season coming off major knee surgery and he was very dominant at home where he put up a 2.92 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 17 starts. The Angels have won nine of his last 10 Interleague starts and we will back him at a great price here. 10* (974) Los Angeles Angels |
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04-04-16 | Villanova +3 v. North Carolina | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
If you though Saturday night was boring, well it was as the 61-point scoring differential was the largest combined margin of victory in Final Four history. Both teams have been playing at a high level the entire tournament as the North Carolina non-cover against Florida Gulf Coast in the opening round is the only game the two teams have not covered. For the first time since 2008, the No. 1 team in Ken Pomeroy's ratings will play the No. 2 team in Ken Pomeroy's ratings for the national title and that is significant since it shows how close these two teams are which gives the underdog the value. The Wildcats may be the better team anyway based on what they have done and what they are doing now. They are 48-for-98 (48.9 percent) from long range in the tournament which would make them the best three-point shooting team in the country albeit from a slam sample size. Villanova is already No. 2 in the nation in two-point field goal percentage (57.3 percent) and free throw percentage (78.2 percent) so all around, they are the team to beat in my opinion. Even more impressive, Villanova has had a much tougher road to get here as it has faced the highest possible seed in every round with the exception of the last round and Oklahoma was no slouch. North Carolina has not faced the seed it should be facing as each game going forward came against a higher than expected seed. While both teams are rolling and covering, the Wildcats are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games against teams with a winning straight up record which is an impressive run going back. 10* (601) Villanova Wildcats |
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04-03-16 | Celtics v. Lakers +9.5 | Top | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Even though it took place on Friday, there has to be some lingering effects for Boston after its huge road win at Golden St. two days ago. The Celtics became the first team since Jan. 27, 2015 to win at Golden St. and if ever there is a time for a letdown, this is it. This is the final game of a five-game roadtrip and the schedule sets up pretty good for Boston with four of its last five games taking place at home with the next two also coming against non-playoff contenders. The Celtics are in a tie for fifth place in the Eastern Conference, sitting a half-game out of third place while also sitting a half-game out of seventh place so there is a lot that can happen but in no way are we interested in laying close to double-digits on the road. The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win while going just 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. The Lakers are coming off a win over Miami in overtime in their last game but that was way back on Wednesday so the time off negates any letdown possibility on their end. That win snapped a four-game skid and while the season winds down, the significance of this matchup favors Los Angeles. The Lakers are 17-12 ATS against the Eastern Conference this season. 10* (522) Los Angeles Lakers |
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04-03-16 | Thunder v. Rockets +3 | Top | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Oklahoma City pretty much wrapped up the No. 3 spot in the Western Conference with a win over the Clippers at home on Thursday as it is now four and a half games clear of Los Angeles with six games remaining. The Thunder had an eight-game winning streak snapped with a loss at Detroit prior to that and while the streak included four road wins, they were just 4-5 in their previous nine road contests and on the season, they are just 11-17 ATS as road favorites. Houston could use ca big win here as it trails Dallas and Utah by one game for the final two playoff spots and despite the inconsistencies, the Rockets are in a good spot here. They have 11 wins over the NBA top ten which is tied for seventh most in the league so when they want to play, they in fact play. After today and a road game at Dallas Wednesday, the Rockets last four games are against four of the five worst teams in the Western Conference so the schedule is on their side in making that playoff run but stealing a game here can only help. Obviously the upcoming game against will be huge but it is three days away so there is no chance of a lookahead. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (508) Houston Rockets |
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04-02-16 | Kings v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
We are seeing a line that is higher than expected but it is for good reason as the Kings will once again be without DeMarcus Cousins who is off for rest following serving his one-game suspension last night. Additionally, Rajon Rondo is getting the night off to rest so the two best players for Sacramento will not be on the court. Sacramento has covered five straight games which is helping negate this line somewhat. The Kings lost last night at home against Miami which is not a horrible loss but it sets up a situation they have been atrocious in all season. They are just 3-15 this season when playing with no rest including a 2-12 record when the second game is on the road. Denver closed March with a loss at New Orleans but it was still a successful month as the Nuggets went 9-8 which may not seem like a big deal but it was their first winning month of the season. This is a very young roster with two rookies and two second-year players in the starting lineup that continues to play hard every night and we can expect that the rest of the season. The Nuggets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss while going 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. This is the fifth game in seven days for the Kings so while the star players rest, fatigue could come into play for everyone else. 10* (808) Denver Nuggets |
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04-02-16 | Syracuse +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 66-83 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
Syracuse is certainly the surprise to be here in the Final Four and not many will be giving the Orange a shot in this one and the line is definitely saying that. North Carolina took both regular season meetings and that will be a big factor in the backing of the Tar Heels but beating the same team three times in the same season is not easy and looking at those first two meetings may not tell the whole story. The Orange led the first game by six points with 8:30 remaining before North Carolina unleashed on a huge run as it was able to create easy baskets and in the second meeting, the Orange had the ball down by three points in the final 10 seconds, but Michael Gbinije missed a layup. If there is one thing Syracuse proved effective at in its two regular season losses to North Carolina is that it was able to contain Marcus Paige. In the first meeting, he scored three points on 1-of-8 shooting and in the second meeting, Paige was 2-of-10 from the floor with six points. Overall, he was just 3-13 from long range and while some can be blamed on just cold shooting, the zone defense had a lot to do with that. The Syracuse defense has been the main reason it is in this position as it has allowed 55.8 ppg on 36.4 percent shooting and while keeping the Tar Heels to those averages likely will not happen, keeping them well below their own averages should keep them within the number. 10* (813) Syracuse Orange |
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04-02-16 | Villanova -2 v. Oklahoma | Top | 95-51 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
While there is no need for motivation this time of year, you can imagine that Villanova might have a little extra spark which could get them out early. Way back in early December, the Sooners defeated the Wildcats by 23 points in Hawaii as they were atrocious from behind the arc, shooting just 4-32 (12.5 percent) and surely Villanova has not forgotten that matchup. Plus, there are plenty of differences since then anyhow. The Wildcats have become deadly efficient in the tournament, shooting over 46 percent from long range through four games and over 55 percent from the field. For comparison, the Sooners are shooting 44 percent from behind the arc, but a much less 48.5 percent from the field. Oklahoma has the best player on the court in Buddy Hield and while he has plenty of parts around him, Villanova arguably has the most talent top to bottom which makes the Wildcats a tough out because of their balance. There have been a ton of upsets in the NCAA Tournament but Villanova has not been fortunate to face one of those as it has faced the highest possible seed in every round from No. 15 to No. 7 to No. 3 to No. 1. The defense has led the way as they have not allowed more than 70 points in any postseason game and the defense has led the way most of the season. Going back, the Wildcats are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Sooners are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (811) Villanova Wildcats |
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04-01-16 | Morehead State +4.5 v. Nevada | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The championship of the CBI Tournament has gone to a final game in the best of three series as Morehead St. and Nevada each won on their home floor in the first two games. The Wolf Pack have the advantage of playing the decisive game on their home floor and following a nine-point win here on Wednesday, they are again favored by the same amount. With this being the third game in five days between the two teams, I expect a very close game on Friday because of the familiarity. Nevada has covered every game thus far in the tournament and that is a huge reason the public is again all over the Wolf Pack but we are going contrarian in this one. This should be an ugly final game which favors the underdog with points being a premium. This is because Nevada ranks fourth in the nation, allowing just 99.5 points per 100 possessions, while Morehead State ranks sixth with 102.4 points per 100 possessions. With a championship on the line, expect both teams to play it a little more vanilla and while Nevada has been dominant on its home floor, the Eagles can no doubt win this game outright. Going back, the Eagles are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. 10* (521) Morehead St. Eagles |
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04-01-16 | Raptors v. Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Looking at some analysis of this matchup, many seem to be giving Toronto a win here before the game is even played. While the Raptors are the better team and the healthier team, laying this high of a number on the road is a little too much. We won with Toronto two nights ago as it defeated Atlanta to snap a 1-3 skid and continue its home dominance to improve to 29-9 at home. They are a solid road team and are still out to catch Cleveland for the top spot in the Eastern Conference but those are big reasons why they are biggest public consensus play of the night. The Grizzlies have lost four straight games but still have a hold on fifth place in the Western Conference albeit not by much. They are a game and a half ahead of Portland following a disappointing loss to Denver on Wednesday. Memphis is 25-13 at home and has its share of big home victories. Two of the losses during this stretch have come against the Spurs and speaking of the Spurs, Toronto has a game in San Antonio tomorrow night so a lookahead is more than possible. The Grizzlies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against the Eastern Conference while the Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference. 10* (510) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-01-16 | Cavs v. Hawks -1.5 | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
There was no line in this game as of this writing due to the LeBron James situation as he has been getting rest here and there but he is likely a go here as he was off just two games back. We won with the Cavaliers last night as they rolled over Brooklyn as they were coming off a home loss as well as playing with revenge from a loss to the Nets a week prior. Cleveland is trying to hold off Toronto in the Eastern Conference as the lead is two and a half games and while the remaining schedule is not easy, it is far from difficult as it will be favored in all the rest of the games. The Hawks had a four-game winning streak snapped in Toronto on Wednesday but the Hawks continue to play at a high level as they are now 12-3 over their last 15 games and have moved back into first place in the Southeast Division. However, they are up by just one game so they need to bounce back here in the first game of a four-game homestand. There is some extra incentive here as well. The Hawks were swept by Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals last season and lost the first meeting in Cleveland by 12 points this season so this marks the first home game against Cleveland since then so they have had this one circled for a while. 10* (508) Atlanta Hawks |
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03-31-16 | Celtics v. Blazers -3 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Playoff positioning is on the line for both teams as Boston is stuck in a three-way tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference while Portland is sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference and is chasing Memphis for fifth place as it trails the Grizzlies by two games. More importantly, the Blazers are also just two games out of ninth place so the final games of the regular season are more important for them at this point. Portland has won two straight games and they were two unimpressive victories over Sacramento and Philadelphia which actually sets the Blazers up in a good situation tonight. Portland has won 14 of its last 16 games at home to move to 24-12 on the season. The Celtics lost at the Clippers on Monday which snapped a four-game winning streak which came on the heels of a four-game losing streak so they have been pretty inconsistent of late. Going bac, the Celtics are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (712) Portland Trailblazers |
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03-31-16 | Nets v. Cavs -14 | Top | 87-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
This is a big number to be backing but it is well worth it and there is actually some value in it. The Cavaliers are coming off a loss at home against Houston on Tuesday as LeBron James sat which snapped a modest three-game home winning streak. It was just the seventh home loss on the season for Cleveland and it has yet to lose consecutive games at home so this is a good bounce back opportunity. The Cavaliers are now only two games up on Toronto in the Eastern Conference so there is little room for error. This is also a revenge game as Cleveland lost in Brooklyn last Thursday as it fell by nine points after getting outscored in the fourth quarter by 12 points. The Cavaliers were favored by 9.5 points in that game and are now favored by just five points more despite the change in venue and that is where the value comes into play. The Nets have dropped two straight games, both on the road where they are now 7-29 on the season. They have failed to cover their last five games on the highway and while Cleveland has played down to the class of competition many times, there is a lot more at stake tonight. 10* (704) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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03-31-16 | George Washington v. Valparaiso OVER 132 | Top | 76-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
George Washington and Valparaiso square off for the NIT Championship on Thursday and the game has the potential to come down to the final possession as both have been playing at a high level. There is much better value in the total here with a lot of based on the number itself and also with the situation. Both semifinal games stayed under the total as both teams were playing at MSG for the first time and playing in a new arena can have effects on the offensive side but now both with a game under their belt here, the sightlines should be significantly better. Both teams shot an identical 42.6 percent from the floor on Tuesday and I expect both to be much better tonight. George Washington and San Diego St. had a closing total of 132.5 which stayed well below the total and while this number is slightly higher, it should be much higher. The total on Tuesday was based on the San Diego St. defense, one of the best in the country and while the Crusaders possess a good defense, it does not compare to that of the Aztecs. Valparaiso stayed under by seven points and this total is 16 points lower than its total against BYU and that is a huge and overaggressive swing. This is the lowest total the Crusaders have seen in 10 games and they have gone 6-3 to the over in nine games since. Going back, the over is 4-1 in the Colonials last five games following a straight up win while the over is 4-1 in the Crusaders last five games following an ATS loss. 10* Over (713) George Washington Colonials/(714) Valparaiso Crusaders |
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03-30-16 | Suns v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Phoenix and Milwaukee are two teams that will not be part of the postseason but the Bucks were playing very well up until they hit a rugged part of their schedule where they faced five straight teams that are currently in playoff spots and they dropped all of those games. Now they welcome Phoenix which puts them in a good spot to bounce back and Milwaukee has had three days off since the last defeat which helps the situation even more. The Suns have been on a losing streak of their own as they have dropped three straight games and going back, they are just 3-8 over their last 11 games. They have struggled on the road all season as they are just 7-30 away from home while covering just eight of their last 30 on the highway. The Bucks are 8-4 ATS this season as favorites of fewer than eight points while going 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing straight up record. Meanwhile, the Suns are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (508) Milwaukee Bucks |
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03-30-16 | Hawks v. Raptors -1 | Top | 97-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
We lost with Toronto on Monday as it fell down early against Oklahoma City and could not recover. The Raptors have now lost three of their last four games with two of those coming on the road in addition to the loss against the Thunder. Toronto is still 28-9 at home and has lost consecutive home games only once this season and Golden St. was involved the first time. The Raptors have already clinched a playoff spot but are just two and a half games behind Cleveland for first place in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta is five games behind Toronto despite winning four straight and nine of its last 10 games. The Hawks have been playing very well on the road with four straight victories but because of that and the overall run, the line is lower than it should be. The last Hawks loss on the road came right here where they were getting 3.5 points. Toronto is 10-5 ATS this season as a favorite of fewer than four points while going 13-4 ATS at home against winning teams. 10* (502) Toronto Raptors |
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03-28-16 | Thunder v. Raptors +3 | Top | 119-100 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Toronto returns home following a disappointing 1-2 roadtrip and now sits 2.5 games behind Cleveland in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are one of only five teams in the NBA that have just single-digit losses at home and they are still getting points tonight which is a role they have been perfect in thus far. Toronto is 4-0 ATS this season as a home underdog, winning three of those outright against San Antonio and Cleveland twice with the lone outright loss coming against Golden St. by just three points. Oklahoma City takes to the highway after a three-game homestand sweep which included a win over the resting Spurs on Saturday so that can be tossed out. Overall, the Thunder have won seven straight games including three in a row on the road but they have covered just nine of 18 games this season as road favorites. They have struggled all season, going just 5-10 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record while the Raptors are 13-3 ATS at home against winning teams while going 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Additionally, the Thunder are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (734) Toronto Raptors |
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03-27-16 | Rockets v. Pacers -2 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
This game was off the board because the injury reports had both James Harden and Paul George on them but both played last night and are probable tonight. The Rockets are coming off an upset win at home over Toronto which kept them tied with Utah for seventh place in the Eastern Conference. Now they hit the road for a quick two-game trek as they look to improve their 16-21 road record but both games are difficult with the Cavaliers on deck. Indiana meanwhile is coming off a loss at Brooklyn last night which snapped a two-game winning streak. The Pacers are also tied for seventh place so keeping hold of their homecourt is important especially with the next three games taking place here. The Pacers are 16-8 ATS as favorites in this price range this season and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win while going 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (706) Indiana Pacers |
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03-26-16 | Hawks v. Pistons -1 | Top | 112-95 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Both Atlanta and Detroit are coming off wins last night and it is the Pistons that have the edge here with no travel taking place. The Hawks won at home over Milwaukee to retain a half-game lead over Miami in the Southeast Division and also to remain in third place in the Eastern Conference standings. This is the third time this season Atlanta has played back-to-back games with the first being at home and the second coming on the road and it failed to win and cover the first two. The Pistons are in a fight with Chicago for the eighth and final playoff spot in the conference and thanks to five straight wins, they have a two-game lead over the Bulls and are now actually tied with Indiana for seventh place. Detroit has won all five of these games at home where it is 24-12 on the season and playing with no rest is no issue. The Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing with no rest and have won seven of eight games this season when playing a back-to-back with the second game taking place at home. 10* (508) Detroit Pistons |
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03-26-16 | Oklahoma v. Oregon -1 | Top | 80-68 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The Pac 12 has gotten a bad rap in the NCAA Tournament thus far and justifiably so as five teams lost in the first round and Utah was sent packing in the second round. Oregon though has been the exception and has been living up to its No. 1 seed following a 14-point romp over Duke on Thursday. The Ducks won the Pac 12 with a 14-4 record, then won the Pac 12 Tournament, including an 88-57 rout of Utah in the title game. Oklahoma is the more popular team simply because people have seen them more and because it has one of the best players in the country in Buddy Hield. We won with the Sooners Thursday against Texas A&M but the challenge will be a lot more difficult here. The Ducks were not great against the three-ball in conference play, but through three games in the tournament, Oregon hasn't let an opponent shoot better than 31 percent from long range. While Oregon is not familiar to many, the Ducks played the nation's second-toughest schedule, according to ESPN, and led the nation with 22 wins against teams in the top 100 of the ESPN RPI index. The Ducks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Sooners are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (524) Oregon Ducks |
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03-25-16 | Nuggets v. Lakers +2.5 | Top | 116-105 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Lakers wins have been few and far between this season but they are in a good spot tonight heading home to face the Nuggets. Los Angeles lost at Phoenix on Wednesday which came after a seven-game homestand and while it was not a winning one, it was a very respectable one. The Lakers went 3-4 in those games which included a win over Golden St., one loss coming against Cleveland and the other three losses coming by single digits. Denver is in the rare role of a road favorite which is just the second time this season that it has been laying points on the highway. The first came at Philadelphia where it pushed as a three-point chalk and the second game resulted in a loss at Brooklyn. The Nuggets are 13-23 on the road and while that is better than the Lakers home record, it is not by much which does not warrant another road favorite situation. Denver is banged up with Danilo Gallinari still on the shelf and Kenneth Faried not even close to 100 percent and possibly out once again tonight. Going back, the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (866) Los Angeles Lakers |
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03-25-16 | Wisconsin v. Notre Dame -1 | Top | 56-61 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
Notre Dame took care of Michigan in the first round on Friday and then escaped Stephen F. Austin on Sunday thanks to a late comeback and the game winning shot with under two seconds remaining. The Irish made the run last year into the Elite Eight and narrowly lost to Kentucky by a bucket and while this team is not considered as strong, they have an excellent matchup here to get back to the Elite Eight for a second straight season. Head coach Mike Brey has a lot to do with the success of these overachievers as it is no accident they are one of the most efficient teams in the country year in and year out. Wisconsin is coming off a very impressive win over Xavier to advance to the Sweet 16 but it was a game that could go either way. The Badgers won it on a 22-foot shot as time expired which capped a nine-point comeback with 6:19 remaining. Prior to that, they won an ugly game against Pittsburgh and that game shows the value here as Notre Dame is favored by the same amount the Panthers were and the Irish are ranked 19 spots higher in the RPI. Wisconsin is shooting just 42.6 percent on the season including 39 percent their last five games so the Irish have a huge edge in that department. Wisconsin will hang around for a while but the Irish will be able to comfortably pull away and head back to another Elite Eight. 10* (872) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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03-25-16 | Iowa State v. Virginia -5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 30 h 60 m | Show |
The ACC has been the talk of the tournament as the conference placed six teams into the Sweet 16 and Virginia is near the top of the list. The Cavaliers are the top seed in the Midwest Region and caught pretty big breaks with Michigan St. and Utah, the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds respectively, losing last week. They do match up on Friday with the team they were supposed to face and they have some pretty significant advantages. Virginia is one of the most complete teams in the country on both ends of the floor and they simply wear the opposition down. Iowa St. is solid but it did not close the season very well and caught a huge break when Purdie blew a huge lead against Arkansas-Little Rock and lost giving the Cyclones an easy second round matchup. The Cyclones are ranked No. 23 in the RPI and No. 16 in the Pomeroy rankings, but they are only 2-8 against the RPI top 25 and 3-8 against the top 27 teams in the Pomeroy rankings. They are not a good rebounding team as they are ranked No. 121 in adjusted defensive rebounding and they do not force turnovers as they are ranked No. 161 in adjusted turnover rate. Virginia is much better in both categories and they are very important categories. The Cyclones are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win while the Cavaliers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (874) Virginia Cavaliers |
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03-24-16 | Blazers v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
We played on Portland last night which resulted in a push or a loss depending on the line and now the Blazers hit the road trailing Memphis by four games for fifth place in the Western Conference. Portland is just 15-23 on the road and it has really struggled of late, losing seven of its last eight games on the highway. The Blazers are now in the wrong place at the wrong time as the Clippers are back home following a loss last night in Golden St. That defeat concluded a disappointing five-game roadtrip where they went just 1-4 and are now ahead of Memphis by just three games for fourth place in the Western Conference. Los Angeles has covered just once in its last eight games and there should be some extra motivation heading home as it got hammered by Cleveland in its last game at the Staples Center by 16 points. The Clippers are laying a decent number here and they are 15-7 ATS in their 22 games this season as favorites of fewer than six points. Additionally, the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games following a road trip of seven or more days while the Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. 10* (810) Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-24-16 | Maryland +6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 63-79 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Maryland has been the more inconsistent of these two teams of late as it is just 5-5 over its last 10 games but three of those losses came by five points or less, another came at Indiana in its last home game of the season and the other was a home game against Wisconsin where they just did not show up. Maryland shot 1-for-18 on three-pointers which is an NCAA tournament record for futility by a winning team but still beat Hawaii 73-60 on Sunday on the strength of a defense-induced 19-2 run. Kansas has won 16 straight games which is a big reason that this is the biggest line of all the Sweet 16 games. The Jayhawks are the overall No. 1 seed for a reason but this is a tough matchup for them as they do not have edges up top or down low like they have had many times this season. The Terrapins are extremely talented and for much of the season, they dealt with the pressure of fulfilling high expectations. Now playing the role of underdog, that pressure is off and when they compete at a high level, they are one of the best teams in the country. That makes this number very appealing considering it is very strong when betting an underdog that has every chance to win outright. 10* (811) Maryland Terrapins |
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03-24-16 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma -2.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Texas A&M is very fortunate to even be here as it rallied from a 12-point deficit with 44 seconds remaining to force overtime and then won in double-overtime. The Aggies suffered through a four-game losing skid to open February but have won 10 of their last 11 games but only seven of those wins came against teams that are in the round of 64. That is not taking away for what they have done this season but playing in the weak SEC has had a lot to do with that. While that latest comeback is all the talk, getting down by 12 points against a much weaker team should be the bigger concern. The Sooners nearly blew a big lead against VCU but held on for a four-point victory to reach the Sweet 16 for a second straight season. While Oklahoma is all about Buddy Hield, the Sooners are more balanced than people may think. Hield, Ryan Spangler, Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard have started 102 consecutive games together. All four averaged double digit points this season and all have scored at least 1,000 career points. The fact that Oklahoma has failed to cover seven straight games is giving us a very good number. The Sooners have been overvalued on many occasions this season but this is not one of those. 10* (818) Oklahoma Sooners |
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03-24-16 | Cavs v. Nets +8 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Cleveland is coming off a win over Milwaukee last night to make it two straight victories and now hits the road in what should be a very uninspired situation. The Cavaliers have struggled all season in these spots as they are 3-12 ATS on the road against teams with a losing record. Here is a very interesting stat and one that brings up how favorable the Cavaliers schedule has been this season compared to the rest of the NBA. Playing with no rest happens a lot in the NBA and while Cleveland has had its share of back-to-back situations, this is the first time this season it goes from a home game to an away game with no rest, the only team in the NBA that has yet to do this. The combined record of all the other teams in the league in this scenario are 48-87. Brooklyn has lost three straight games but we won with the Nets in their last game on Tuesday as they stayed within the number against Charlotte. Going back, the Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. 10* (804) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-23-16 | Mavs v. Blazers -6 | Top | 103-109 | Push | 0 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is another situation of immediate revenge and this one entails home revenge. Portland is looking to avenge an overtime loss at Dallas on Sunday as it let a double-digit loss slip away and ended up losing by 12 points. That dropped their lead over Dallas to just a half-game for sixth place in the Western Conference as the bottom section of the playoff picture is extremely tight. Only a game and a half separates sixth place and ninth place so games are becoming more and more important and holding serve on home court is huge. The Blazers are 21-12 at home including wins in 13 of their last 16. This is just their third home game since late February as 11 of their last 13 games overall have come on the road. Dallas picked up a much needed win but it might be too little, too late for the Mavericks as they are struggling and are now without Chandler Parsons for the rest of the season. They have lost seven of their last nine games and are just 3-7 in their last 10 road games while going back, the Mavericks are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (774) Portland Trailblazers |
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03-23-16 | Jazz v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 89-87 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Houston and Utah are both fighting for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and being separated by just a half-game, this is just like a playoff game. We won with Utah on Monday as it won in Milwaukee which made it five wins in six games for the Jazz following a rare road win. They are just 12-23 away from home this season and going to Houston will not help improve that record as they have dropped six straight meetings in Houston. The Rockets are coming off a two-game roadtrip at Atlanta and Oklahoma City, both resulting in losses. The loss to the Thunder came last night by just four points so while it was a tough loss, they can build from it and need to take advantage of their home floor. Houston is the team with the half-game lead so upping it to a game and a half is big considering the Jazz are at Oklahoma City tomorrow which could easily result in another loss. While Utah has struggled here, it has also struggled against the better teams overall as it is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (764) Houston Rockets |
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03-23-16 | Hawks -1 v. Wizards | Top | 122-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Revenge can be overstated at times but situations like this can dispel that since it is pretty immediate. The Hawks lost at home against Washington on Monday by 15 points which snapped a five-game winning streak and with the Miami Heat win last night, they are now a half-game back in the Southeast Division. Atlanta now wants to avenge that loss and most likely will vault back into first place since the Heat are at San Antonio tonight. Going back, Atlanta is 10-3 over its last 13 games which includes four wins in its last five road games so winning on the road is not an issue especially considering they have covered five of the last six meetings here. The Wizards now have a five-game winning streak of their own and they are quietly moving back into the playoff picture, trailing Detroit and Chicago by just a game and a half for the final playoff spot. Washington is just 19-17 at home which is better than just four other teams in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home while going 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (751) Atlanta Hawks |
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03-23-16 | Florida v. George Washington -1.5 | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Florida has been the surprise of the NIT thus far as the Gators came in as a No. 2 seed but were forced to hit the road because the O'Connell Center is undergoing renovations. They easily defeated North Florida last Tuesday and then travelled to Ohio St. on Sunday and defeated the Buckeyes by eight points. Now they have to hit the road again with their overall 6-8 record on the highway into a very tough environment for their sixth consecutive game away from home. George Washington easily defeated No. 1 seed Monmouth on Monday and because of the Florida situation, it will be back in Washington for its final home game of the season so the environment will be a big advantage. On the line Wednesday will be the 23-game home winning streak against non-conference competition. The Colonials were a perfect 8-0 at home in non-conference play this year, plus the First Round NIT win over Hofstra. The last loss came at the hands of Kansas St. on Dec. 8, 2012. Despite the win Sunday, the Gators are 9-24-2 ATS in their last 35 games following a straight up win while going 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning straight up record. George Washington has won 18 of 22 games as a favorite this season. 10* (776) George Washington Colonials |
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03-22-16 | Hornets v. Nets +7 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Charlotte picked up a win last night that was seemly going the other way after just the first period. The Spurs led the Hornets 28-7 after one quarter, limiting them to just 14.3 percent shooting from the field and has a chance to put the game away but Charlotte would not quit. It was its biggest comeback win of the season but while the momentum of that comeback and the fact it was against one of the best teams in the NBA is big, it provides a huge letdown opportunity. The Hornets have had great energy at home but they are just 13-19 on the road and this is just the third road game the entire month of March as 10 of 12 games have been at home. The Nets have lost two straight games and eight of their last 10 as the recent schedule has been brutal. It has been the opposite of Charlotte as Brooklyn has played 11 of its last 13 games on the highway and it was surprisingly competitive in a majority of those games despite posting a 7-27 record on the road. The Nets are not a whole lot better at home but they matchup pretty close to the Hornets road record and it is the home/road splits that provide the value here. The late line is due to the status of Brook Lopez who is questionable but should suit up as he was able to practice on Monday. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (652) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-22-16 | St. Mary's +4.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 44-60 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
A pair of regular season conference champions square off tonight as St. Mary's heads to Valparaiso with the winner heading to New York for the NIT Semifinals. The Gaels struggled to put away New Mexico St. in their first round game as the disappointment of not getting into the NCAA Tournament may have been lingering. They bounced back with an easy win over Georgia and now hit the road where they have been very solid this season with a 7-3 record. Valparaiso has cruised to wins in both of its games but now faces one of its tougher tests of the season. The Crusaders have lost only once at home this season but this marks the best team to come and visit the Athletics-Recreation Center. St. Mary's finished the regular season with a 6-2 record against teams ranked among the top 100 in the NCAA RPI while Valparaiso went just 3-3 against similar teams. Going back, the Gaels are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile the Crusaders are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win while going 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (659) St. Mary's Gaels |
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03-21-16 | Washington v. San Diego State -5 | Top | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
San Diego St. easily defeated IPFW in the first round of the NIT after getting snubbed by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. Often times, you see teams come out flat in the NIT after feeling the disappointment of getting left out of the big tournament but that is not the case for the Aztecs which are out to prove how good they are. A big win against a major-conference team would be more proof the Aztecs deserved a spot in the NCAA tournament. Should South Carolina win tonight, this would make it the final home game of the season for San Diego St .as it would have to travel to the higher seeded Gamecocks. The Huskies survived Long Beach St. at home as they won by five points after trailing by 10 points early in the second half. Washington has dropped five straight games on the road and overall it is 3-6 on the highway. Those three wins came against non-postseason teams by just 10 points combined and one of those came in overtime at Washington St. which finished 1-17 in the Pac 12. This will be the biggest test of the year for the Huskies offense, because the Aztecs play defense better than anyone in the Pac 12 and better than most in the nation as they lead the country in effective defensive field goal percentage and are second in adjusted defensive efficiency. 10* (624) San Diego St. Aztecs |
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03-21-16 | Spurs v. Hornets +6 | Top | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
We played against San Antonio in its game previous to playing Golden St. and we are going to play against the Spurs following their victory Saturday night over the Warriors. That victory concluded a five-game homestand where the Spurs are now 35-0 on the season and while they are a very solid road team, the road/home splits with Charlotte does not justify this line. The Spurs have gone 10-4 over their last 14 road games but only three of those victories came against teams currently sitting in a playoff position. The Hornets are coming off a home loss against Denver on Saturday which snapped a two-game win streak. They have been playing exceptional as they are 15-4 over their last 19 games which has propelled them to sixth place in the Eastern Conference and they trail Atlanta by just a game and a half in the Southeast Division. Charlotte is 15-8 ATS this season as an underdog of fewer than eight points and it has lost consecutive games only twice since early January, going 7-1 in its last eight games following a defeat. Additionally, the Hornets are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win. 10* (606) Charlotte Hornets |
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03-20-16 | Northern Iowa +6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Northern Iowa takes on its second consecutive team from Texas after an incredible victory on Friday against the Longhorns. Many will be against the Panthers here based on a letdown but this is a very solid team that is peaking at the right time. Northern Iowa was picked to finish second in the Missouri Valley Conference behind Wichita St. but a 1-6 slump in the early part of the conference season doomed that. The Panthers did not quit however as they went 12-1 over their final 13 games including a pair of wins over the Shockers and the lone defeat coming by just three points on the road. The Aggies ran away from Green Bay in their opener as they went over 90 points for the first time since early January. The challenge gets tougher here though as the Panthers are much better defensively than the Phoenix and they have allowed just 58 ppg on 38.7 percent shooting over their last five games. Additionally, Northern Iowa is shooting 75.4 percent from the charity stripe which is 17th in the country. 10* (719) Northern Iowa Panthers |
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03-20-16 | Jazz +1 v. Bucks | Top | 94-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Gordon Hayward in the game last night but he came back after missing two games with a foot injury and he is good to go again tonight. He had a rough game Saturday as he managed only nine points in the loss at Chicago which snapped a four-game losing streak for the Jazz. They have had their share of struggles on the road this season but most of that has come against the top teams as 14 of 23 road losses have come against teams currently in playoff positions. Milwaukee is not part of that group and while the Bucks have won four of their last five games, two came against lowly Brooklyn and New Orleans while the last victory came against the injury riddled Grizzlies. Milwaukee has played well at home but it is just 7-12 ATS this season on its home floor against winning teams while going just 12-17 ATS this season following a win. Additionally, the Bucks are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games against the Western Conference while the Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing straight up record and 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games playing on no rest. 10* (709) Utah Jazz |
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03-20-16 | Iowa +7 v. Villanova | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
Iowa survived a scare from Temple in the first round as the Hawkeyes needed overtime to advance. This line opened at 5 but it has risen as the public is not backing Iowa considering they have gone 1-8 ATS over their last nine games but they definitely present a challenge to Villanova because of the offense. Villanova took some time to take out UNC-Asheville but eventually pulled away for a 30-point win on Friday. The Wildcats are 25-1 this season when holding opponents under 70 points but Iowa averages 77.9 ppg and the Wildcats tournament struggles are pretty known as they are 0-6 in their last six tournament games against teams not seeded 15th or 16th. Beyond its three-point shooting prowess, Iowa prides itself on avoiding turnovers as the Hawkeyes are eight in the nation in offensive turnover percentage. Going back, the Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win and on the season, Iowa is 3-0 ATS ion this price range as an underdog. 10* (713) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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03-19-16 | Providence +10 v. North Carolina | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
North Carolina is one of two teams, with Kansas being the other, that has the most public backing to win the national championship and while the Tar Heels are a clear favorite, they should be in for a test here. They came out flat against Florida Gulf Coast but used an early second half run to pull away to survive the scare. North Carolina is just 5-5 this season against the top 50 from the ESPN Power Index and while Providence has only two wins against the same teams, it is an extremely dangerous team that is getting a huge number. The Friars are fortunate to be here for sure coming off a last second win over USC but when they play to their potential, they can beat anyone. The offense is led by Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil and the duo can create some problems for a Tar Heels defense that has struggled at times, case in point on Thursday when they allowed the Eagles to shoot 60 percent from the floor in the first half. 10* (525) Providence Friars |
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03-19-16 | Gonzaga v. Utah +1 | Top | 82-59 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is another example of the wrong team being favored because of the name. Gonzaga snuck into the NCAA Tournament because of the win in the WCC Tournament as it was a bubble team prior to that which its No. 11 seed attests to. The Bulldogs took care of Seton Hall in their first game which was a surprise based on how much they won by but when the Pirates best player goes 4-24 from the floor including 0-10 from long range, that will happen. Utah is one of just two of the seven Pac 12 teams left in the tournament and this line may have something to do with the perception of the conference being overrated. The Utes are extremely tough though and have one of the best players in the country in Jakob Poeltl who is a very difficult matchup down low. They won 19 games against the top 100 this season which is close to the most in the country while Gonzaga has just five against similar opposition. 10* (534) Utah Utes |
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03-19-16 | Warriors +3.5 v. Spurs | Top | 79-87 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
There is certainly a lot of incentive for both sides tonight as the Warriors and Spurs are fighting for the top spot in the Western Conference. This is the second meeting this season and the Spurs should be pretty motivated after losing by 30 points in the first meeting back in January. They have been unbeatable at home, going a perfect 34-0 but this is obviously the biggest challenge thus far. The Warriors defeated Dallas last night as they pulled away late after a game that was competitive for a while. Golden St. once again showed its advantage behind the arc as it shot over 57 percent from long range and while the success will be difficult to repeat here, they will take it on. The Spurs have the revenge angle but Golden St. has a little more in the tank as it has lost 32 straight regular season matchups in San Antonio with this being by far the best Warriors team to visit. This is just the third time this season that Golden St. has been the underdog and in the first two instances, at Cleveland and at Houston, it came out on top both times. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win while the Warriors are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (517) Golden St. Warriors |
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03-19-16 | Wichita State v. Miami (Fla) +2.5 | Top | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
It is not too common to see a No. 11 seed be favored in its first two games (not counting the play in game where it was also favored) of the NCAA Tournament but that is the case for Wichita St. The Shockers closed as a one-point favorite against Arizona and have opened as a bucket favorite against Miami and that seems to be an overadjusted line. This is a very solid team that was underseeded and Wichita St. looked every bit as a team that can make a long run into the tournament but it gets a much tougher matchup here. Miami had to shake off a pesky Buffalo team as it won by seven points it won by seven points as a 14-point favorite. The Hurricanes are a tough matchup for most teams and are the sleeping giants when they play to their potential. Line value plays a big role this time of year and clearly, the wrong team is getting the points. 10* (522) Miami Hurricanes |
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03-18-16 | Northern Iowa +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Northern Iowa was picked to finish second in the Missouri Valley Conference behind Wichita St. but a 1-6 surge in the early part of the conference season doomed that. The Panthers did not quit however as they went 12-1 over their final 13 games including a pair of wins over the Shockers and the lone defeat coming by just three points on the road. The Panthers used to be a powerhouse in this conference and after a couple of off years, they seem to be back and are peaking at the right time. Shaka Smart did a great job at Texas this season and he brings in a lot of tournament experience. The Longhorns struggled shooting the ball this season as they hit just 43.2 percent for the season including only 40.4 percent over their last five games. They are also very average at the free throw line while that is a place that Northern Iowa excels. Texas will have Cameron Ridley for this game after he saw two minutes of action against Baylor in the Big XII Tournament. His minutes will go up after he missed two months of action but how effective he will be is definitely a question. The Panthers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (831) Northern Iowa Panthers |
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03-18-16 | Stephen F Austin +8 v. West Virginia | Top | 70-56 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
There is obviously a big difference between the Big XII Conference and the Southland Conference as far as talent goes but when a team cruises through the regular season with an 18-0 record and wins its two tournament games by 58 points combined, that gap is narrowed. That was the case for Stephen F. Austin as it is now 59-1 over the last three seasons in the Southland Conference and is making its third straight NCAA Tournament experience. The Lumberjacks defeated VCU in the first round two years ago and lost by just seven points against Utah last season. They pressure the ball very well as they force 17.5 turnovers per game and have a very similar style to that of West Virginia. The Mountaineers are very similar in that they also force a lot of turnovers to create easy baskets but facing a team like their own is not a good matchup in the first round. This is very similar to that VCU game with both having similar styles and the Lumberjacks winning outright as six-point underdogs. Stephen F. Austin shoots the ball well, has a 1.50 assist/turnover ratio and has a big edge at the free throw line. 10* (821) Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks |
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03-18-16 | Cavs v. Magic +9 | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
The Cavaliers won against Dallas in their last game on Wednesday as they took down the Mavericks by a point while resting LeBron James. They now hit the road where they are still solid but not nearly as good as they are at home and the situation is not in their favor tonight. Cleveland heads to Miami tomorrow night which presents us with a solid possibility of a lookahead spot. The Cavaliers are just 10-17 ATS this season as road favorites and they have really struggled in trying to play at a high level against the lesser teams as they are just 3-11 ATS this season on the road against teams with a losing record. Orlando lost at Charlotte on Wednesday to fall to 11-22 on the road and while they are not overly dominant at home, the Magic are 18-15 and that is after a 0-2 start. They are 10-6 ATS as underdogs of five or more points which correlates to them playing well against the better teams and that is proven with the fact the Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. There is also some revenge on the table for today as Orlando looks to avoid the four-game season sweep after losing the first three games by 14, 35 and 25 points. 10* (804) Orlando Magic |
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03-18-16 | Pittsburgh +2 v. Wisconsin | Top | 43-47 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Wisconsin made a huge run to get into the NCAA Tournament as it won 11 of 12 games following a 1-4 start in the Big Ten. The Badgers were pretty much left for dead after a rough overall start and the retiring of head coach Bo Ryan but they stayed on course with a huge turnaround. A one-point home victory over Michigan St. was the turning point and while there were some other solid wins, most of the victories over the surge were against the bottom teams in the Big Ten. A loss to Nebraska in their first Big Ten Tournament game put them in question even more. Pittsburgh did not finish the season nearly as strong and got its way into the NCAA Tournament thanks to a one-point win over Syracuse in the ACC Tournament and it was a bad shot by Orange away from playing in the NIT. But even though the Panthers will not go very far, they have a matchup edge that cannot be ignored. Pittsburgh's excellence in crashing the offensive glass is a huge advantage and it has dominated teams that have trouble on the boards and Wisconsin fits that profile. The Panthers remain one of the best in the country, collecting 37.4 percent of their own misses. Additionally, Pittsburgh has been a little more predictable and did not suffer as many bad losses as the Badgers did. 10* (835) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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03-18-16 | Temple +7.5 v. Iowa | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Temple had an exceptional season as it won the outright AAC regular season title but did not make much noise in the conference tournament as it was ousted by eventual champion Connecticut. Still, the Owls are a dangerous team that are guard heavy and take great care of the ball as they are ranked second in the country in turnover rate. They are an average shooting team but that can be negated by the fact they get to take more shots because of the limited number of turnovers. They own seven wins against top 100 teams. Iowa was atop the Big Ten at one point with a 10-1 record but limped in with a 2-5 finish and then lost in its first tournament game against Illinois. The Hawkeyes are a very streaky shooting team and that is not good against a solid Temple defense that has held opponents to just 41.2 percent over its last five games and 41.7 percent on the season. This is by far the biggest spread of all of the 7/10 matchups and it does not have a lot of basis in it being that way. The Owls are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (819) Temple Owls |
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03-18-16 | VCU v. Oregon State +4 | Top | 75-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Oregon St. was a surprise to some to make the NCAA Tournament as it was right on the bubble but it is ranked No. 29 in the ESPN Power Index thanks to 12 wins against top 100 teams. The Beavers finished 9-9 in the Pac 12 during the regular season and after easily defeating Arizona St. in the tournament, they lost to California which was a very close game until the end. Those nine wins were the most since 1992-93 so it shows what a special season it was. A lot of this is due to senior Gary Payton Jr. who made first team All-Pac 12 and has won back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year awards. VCU finished in a three-way tie for first place in the Atlantic Ten but was unable to win the conference tournament as it fell to St. Joes by 13 points in the championship game. The Rams used to be known for their tenacious pressing defense which is not the same anymore. Many will argue that the Beavers are overseeded here as a No. 7 but that is right in line with that power index referenced earlier. That brings in the question of the pointspread where the Rams are the only No. 10 seed that is favored showing significant value for the Beavers. 10* (828) Oregon St. Beavers |
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03-17-16 | Providence -1.5 v. USC | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 27 m | Show |
This is the fourth and final matchup on Thursday coming from Raleigh with Providence and USC meeting for the first time since 1972. Both teams started the season red hot but cooled off once their respective conference seasons began but it is Providence that comes in as the hotter of the two teams. The Friars had won four straight games prior to being ousted in the Big East Tournament by Villanova by eight points in a game that was close until the final few minutes. Providence has point guard Kris Dunn, a probable NBA lottery pick, who averages 16.0 ppg and 6.4 apg and forward Ben Bentil, who averages 21.2 ppg and 7.8 rpg. The Trojans went just 3-7 over their last 10 games which included a loss to Utah in the Pac 12 Tournament. USC was awesome at home this season with a 16-2 record but it struggled on the highway, going just 5-10 in away and neutral court games. One key factor that the Friars possess if this is a close game is the fact they are the much better free throw shooting team and especially of late as they have a 75 percent to 64 percent edge over the last five games. Additionally, Providence is 8-3 ATS away from home against winning teams while USC is just 3-9 ATS in the same situation. 10* (727) Providence Friars |
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03-17-16 | Blazers +11.5 v. Spurs | Top | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Portland has had two days off to stew over a loss at Oklahoma City on Monday as it was blasted by 34 points by allowing the Thunder to shoot 59 percent from the floor. The Blazers have now lost five straight games on the road and that is certainly playing into this number but they have been a great bounce back team this season, going 21-12 ATS following a loss. Even stronger is the fact they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss. The Spurs have won four straight games following a loss at Indiana 10 days ago which includes three home wins where they are a perfect 33-0 on the season. That too is playing into the number but this is not the ideal spot. While keeping pace with Golden St. is the goal, which it trails by four games in the Western Conference, San Antonio faces the Warriors on Saturday so the lookahead to that game is a definite possibility. No one as of yet has been ruled out for the Spurs tonight but a late scratch is always a possibility which would help for sure. While the Blazers have been great off losses, the Spurs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. 10* (713) Portland Trailblazers |
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03-17-16 | Fresno State +8.5 v. Utah | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 36 m | Show |
Fresno St. and Utah will face each other in the Midwest Region in the first night game from the Pepsi Center in Denver. The Bulldogs enter this game as one of the hottest teams in the country as they have won nine straight games including three games in three days to capture the Mountain West Conference Tournament. Even as hot as they are, they needed the title to get into the Big Dance and the win over the Aztecs was impressive. They held San Diego St. to only 42 percent shooting, they pulled out 11 steals, and senior guard and conference player of the year Marvelle Harris scored a team-high 18 points. Fresno St. ranks among the best in the nation in steals. Utah is a solid sleeper to make a Final Four run and the Utes had won nine straight games before getting blown out by Oregon in the Pac 12 championship. Utah does a lot of things right and it possesses one of the best big men in the country in Jakob Poeltl. The Utes committed 20 turnovers against Oregon in that championship game and that plays right into the hands of the Bulldogs and this line makes it even more inviting for the red hot Bulldogs. 10* (745) Fresno St. Bulldogs |
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03-17-16 | Iona +8 v. Iowa State | Top | 81-94 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 25 m | Show |
Iona and Iowa St. meet in the first game from Denver on Thursday and I feel this one has upset potential. The Gaels are a perennial strong team from the MAAC and while they were not the best this season, they were close. They finished one game behind Monmouth but they defeated the Hawks in the MAAC Championship to grab the automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. Iona comes in riding an eight-game winning streak and while it comes from the much weaker conference, it has the game and the right matchup to stay within reach here. Iowa St. opened the season 9-0 but struggled after that by going just 12-11 after that including a pair of losses heading into the tournament. Granted, the Cyclones come out of the rugged Big XII Conference and they lost a lot of tight games but because of their pace, they will be in for a fight here. Iona is No. 31 on KenPom.com in ppg (79.6), 60th in adjusted offense (110.4) and 44th in adjusted tempo (72.4) while Iowa St. is 15th, 3rd and 54th in those categories. The bench is a factor also as drawing a game at high altitude against a running team might not be the ideal situation for a short-benched Iowa St. team. 10* (743) Iona Gaels |
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03-17-16 | Connecticut v. Colorado +3.5 | Top | 74-67 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 46 m | Show |
Connecticut and Colorado face off in the South Region in the first game from Des Moines on Thursday. The Huskies made a big run in the AAC Tournament as they won three games in three days to capture the title. It almost never happened however as Connecticut needed a half-court shot into what eventually was a four-overtime win over Cincinnati. That victory kept the Huskies out of the NIT as they were clearly a bubble team and while they bring in momentum, they have a very tough matchup here. Colorado lost to Arizona in the Pac 12 Tournament quarters and while it is 3-2 over its last five games, it includes a big win over Arizona and close two-point loss at Utah. The Buffaloes covered all five of those games and despite the higher seed here, they are getting a very attractive number. The Buffaloes are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, and that is a huge advantage in this one because Connecticut does not rebound the ball well, ranking 152nd in the nation. The Pac 12 got seven teams into the NCAA Tournament and while some of those will be fades, Colorado comes from the much stronger conference and that will show here. 10* (736) Colorado Buffaloes |
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03-17-16 | NC-Wilmington +11 v. Duke | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 45 h 43 m | Show |
The first day of the NCAA Tournament starts off with UNC-Wilmington taking on Duke in the West Region from Providence. The Seahawks won both the CAA regular season and conference tournament and come in as a dangerous No. 13 seed. They possess a guard-heavy lineup that likes to push the pace and has the firepower to keep up with Duke on the offensive end. While they have not been to the tournament since 2006, they are coached by former Louisville assistant Kevin Keatts so he has the knowledge of playing on the big stage. It has been a down year for the defending national champion Blue Devils and while another big run is not out of the question, they are far from dangerous and have struggled in these spots in recent years as they lost to Mercer in 2014 and Lehigh in 2012. Duke has made the NCAA tournament 32 times but this is just the fourth time the Blue Devils have been lower than a No. 3 seed under head coach Mike Krzyzewski. The loss of Amile Jefferson early in the season was a big blow for Duke down low so we will again see it push the pace but that is not an advantage in this matchup. 10* (723) UNC-Wilmington Seahawks |
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03-16-16 | Clippers +3 v. Rockets | Top | 122-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
While the Clippers remain contenders in the Western Conference to make a possible something happen against Golden St. come playoff time, they sure did not look it last night in San Antonio. Los Angeles lost by 21 points against one of the other contenders as it got outscored by 20 points in the fourth quarter so a quick regroup needs to happen tonight. The Clippers have dropped two straight as they also fell at home against Cleveland by 24 points on Sunday so a bounceback is even more important. This is the first time since before Christmas that the Clippers have lost consecutive games and they are now 10-1 since then following a defeat so getting points here against what has been an average Houston team is even more attractive. The Rockets are coming off a blowout victory against Memphis, which has been depleted by injuries, and they are on a solid run of winning four of their last five games but are facing the Clippers at the wrong time. Houston is just 10-16 ATS this season as a home favorite and going back, the Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. 10* (613) Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-16-16 | Tulsa +4 v. Michigan | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
Tulsa was a surprise entrant into the NCAA Tournament by many and the public does not like this team in the First Four matchup on Wednesday as Michigan is the biggest consensus on the board in all NCAA Tournament games. While there may have been other teams that deserved consideration over Tulsa, this is a very solid team that will be out to prove the naysayers wrong. The Golden Hurricane are ranked No. 1 in the nation in experience, according to kenpom.com, as seven of their top nine players in their rotation are seniors. They have exceptional guard play even though they do not shoot the long ball very well but that has been a problem for Michigan of late as well. The Wolverines are pretty fortunate to be here as well and no one is really taking that into consideration. They needed a run in the Big Ten Tournament and got it thanks to an overtime win over Northwestern and a last second win over Indiana. A loss in either of those would have likely sent Michigan to the NIT but now everyone is already penciling the Wolverines into the matchup with Notre Dame on Friday. The Golden Hurricane are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (621) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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03-16-16 | Hawks v. Pistons -1 | Top | 118-114 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
One great situation in the NBA is playing on teams that are coming off bad losses and Detroit more than fits. The Pistons are coming off a 43-point loss against Washington which was their worst loss in 22 years and even worse it came in a nationally televised game on ESPN. The Pistons concluded their four-game trip with a 2-2 record and now head to the Palace for a much-needed nine-game home stand. The two losses on the trip resulted in the most points allowed in regulation this season and after getting called out by head coach Stan Van Gundy, it is safe to say we will see a full out effort tonight. Atlanta has won two straight games, both of which came at home, and going back it is on a solid 5-1 run. The Hawks are a game behind Miami in the Southeast Division and currently sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference but this is a bigger game for Detroit which is on the outside looking in as it trails Chicago by percentage points for eighth place. The Pistons are 14-5 both straight up and against the number as home favorites this season. 10* (610) Detroit Pistons |
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03-16-16 | Thunder v. Celtics +4 | Top | 130-109 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The Celtics lost last night in Indiana which made it two straight losses, a rarity of late for Boston. This was just the second time since mid-January that Boston has lost consecutive games and you have to go all the way back to early January to find more than two straight defeats. The Celtics other loss prior to last night came at home against Houston which snapped a 14-game home winning streak so this is a team chomping at the bit to return to its winning ways. Oklahoma City won its last game, a 34-point romp over Portland at home which snapped a two-game slide. The Thunder have been very inconsistent as since the All Star Break, they are just 5-8 which includes a 3-4 record on the road. All three of those wins came against losing teams and they have struggled on the highway against the better teams, going 3-10 ATS against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma City is 7-15-2 ATS this season as a road favorite while the Celtics are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (608) Boston Celtics |
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03-15-16 | Vanderbilt v. Wichita State -3 | Top | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Two underachieving teams square off Tuesday in one of the First Four games as Vanderbilt and Wichita St. meet with the winner to face Arizona on Thursday. While both underachieved, they were for different reasons. The Shockers were hit hard by injuries early in the season as they opened just 5-5 after being ranked in the preseason top ten. They are healthy once again and have gone 19-3 over their last 22 games and only an overtime loss in the MVC Semifinals prevented this game from happening. Still, the experience will play a big part as will excellent guard play. Vanderbilt was expected to contend for the SEC title and while it showed signs of being a powerful team, it was too consistent overall. The Commodores have a great frontcourt but they rely on the three-pointer too much and against a very strong Shockers perimeter defense, that will pose to be a problem. The Shockers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss while the Commodores are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (546) Wichita St. Shockers |
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03-15-16 | Florida v. North Florida +7.5 | Top | 97-68 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Florida hits the road to take the short trip to Jacksonville in the first round of the NIT and it clearly has the biggest disadvantage of all of the better seeded teams of this tournament. The Gators are a No. 2 seed in the tournament while the Ospreys are a No. 7 seed. However, the Ospreys will host the game because the O'Connell Center is undergoing renovations. Florida went 4-8 on the road this season but they come in as a big road favorite mainly because it is from a power conference playing against a lower-tiered conference but the SEC was not good once again this season. North Florida won the Atlantic Sun Conference regular season title but lost in the conference championship to Florida Gulf Coast to get relegated to the NIT. This is a big game for the Ospreys as they get a rare home game against a power conference and we have seen many times in the NIT how energized their environments can be. Florida head coach Mike White said Monday it's unclear whether center John Egbunu will even travel with the Gators as he has an injured ligament in his thumb. 10* (558) North Florida Ospreys |
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03-15-16 | Raptors -2 v. Bucks | Top | 107-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
Toronto lost at home last night to the Bulls as it failed to pick up ground on the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference as it is now 2.5 games back for the top position. The Raptors completed a 5-2 homestand and while they hit the road for the first time in a while. They have been solid on the highway with a 17-13 record and they have covered 10 of 15 games against teams with losing records. Milwaukee has won three straight games as it continues to hang around in the playoff picture, sitting five games behind Chicago for the No. 8 seed but there are also two other teams in front of it. The Bucks are just 17-33 as underdogs this season and are 7-10 ATS at home against winning teams. Milwaukee is just 8-16 against the top ten teams in the NBA and three of those losses have come against Toronto so while revenge is a factor, the Raptors have big matchup edges. We do not like going with road chalk nor do we like taking big public consensus plays but sometimes the situation calls for it and this is one of those. Toronto is 9-2 over its last 11 games following a loss and with games against Indiana and Boston up next, this is a pretty big game. 10* (537) Toronto Raptors |
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03-14-16 | Pistons v. Wizards -2 | Top | 81-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the questionable status of Washington guard Bradley Beal. It has been a bad stretch for the Wizards as they have dropped their last five games but four of those have come on the road and the lone home loss was by just a point against Indiana. Going back prior to that, Washington had won six straight home games and the spot is a good one tonight to snap the losing skid. The Wizards are now in tenth place in the Eastern Conference and are sitting 3.5 games out of the playoff picture and the team they are chasing is the Pistons. Detroit won in Philadelphia on Sunday to make it three wins in its last four games and going back further, it has won seven of 10 games following a five-game losing streak of its own. The Pistons have struggled on the road as they are 15-21 and are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a losing home record while the Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. 10* (502) Washington Wizards |
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