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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-24-16 | Warriors -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 94-118 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Similar to Toronto last night, Golden St. can ill afford to lose again and fall down 3-1 in the series and that is what is at stake tonight with the Warriors in pretty much a must win situation. They are coming off a bad loss on Sunday as they fell by 28 points in one of their most lopsided losses of the season but they have been the best bounce back team in the NBA this season as Golden St. is 12-0 straight up following a defeat, covering nine of those, and a win here likely means a cover as well. This is taking nothing away from the Thunder which have been very impressive since a Game One loss against San Antonio, winning six of their last eight games. This includes three straight wins at home but the vulnerability is there after seeing 11 home losses on the season. The Warriors caught a huge break with Draymond Green not being suspended for this game as his groin kick was reduced to a Flagrant 2. Despite the Game Three victory, Oklahoma City is just 2-6 ATS as an underdog of fewer than seven points this season and while the home floor has been kind to the host in this series going back to last season, we will back the Warriors tonight and avoid a 3-1 deficit. 10* (715) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-24-16 | Mets +155 v. Nationals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The Mets won the opener of this series last night which was their fourth straight victory to pull to within a half-game of the Nationals in the National League East. Washington has now lost three straight home games and while that typically is a good spot to play on, there is a greater contrarian angle that we are going with. Stephen Strasburg has gotten off to an outstanding start this season as he has accounted for exactly one-third of the Nationals victories. Washington has yet to lose any of his starts as it is a perfect 9-0 in his games and to no surprise, the Nationals are paying the price for it tonight. He is typically a big favorite to begin with but it is overadjusted and too much here against a quality team. Matt Harvey meanwhile has seen some struggles this season. He has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his nine starts but has allowed five or more runs in his other three outings. He is coming off a pair of the latter and it was Washington that lit him up last time out but expect adjustments to be made for a Harvey rebound tonight. The Mets are 13-3 in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record while the Nationals are 2-7 in their last nine home games against teams with a winning record. 10* (951) New York Mets |
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05-24-16 | Phillies +171 v. Tigers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
While we are not buying the successful start that the Phillies have produced, we are not buying Detroit being favored by this big of a margin because of a recent solid run. The Phillies are five games over .500 after losing the opener of this series last night and with upcoming series against the Cubs and Nationals, the final two games of this three-game set are pretty important. The Tigers have won three straight and seven of their last eight games to move to .500 overall and pull within four games of the White Sox in the American League Central. They hand the ball to Justin Verlander tonight and he is on a run of three straight quality outings, posting a 1.61 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in the process. Seven of nine starts have been quality but in the other two, he allowed seven runs each time out so the possibly of a blowup is always there. Philadelphia counters with Jeremy Hellickson who is coming off a pair of quality starts following an inconsistent start to the season. Five of his nine starts have come on the road and in those, he has a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and the Tigers have been one of his favorite opponents over the years as he has a 1.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in five career starts. 10* (977) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-24-16 | LA Sparks v. Chicago Sky +2.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
After opening the season with a blowout victory over Connecticut, Chicago has dropped its last two games including a road upset at Atlanta on Sunday. The other defeat came at home against Minnesota by 17 points and while the Lynx are arguably the best team in the WNBA, home losses like that are not taken lightly especially for the Sky which should end of being one of the top contenders in the Eastern Conference. Los Angeles is off to a great start as it has won its first three games, the first two coming by 30 points and the last one coming in overtime on Saturday at New York. We had the Liberty in that one and it was a tough loss as they blew an eight-point lead with just over a minute left in regulation. The Sparks have covered all three games and they come in as a road favorite here which is a big aggressive as they closed as the underdog against New York after opening as a road favorite there as well. Going back, the Sparks are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a losing straight up record and the Sky should be plenty motivated here after losing both meetings last season by 11 and 12 points. 10* (654) Chicago Sky |
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05-23-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +6.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Toronto came through for us in Game Three and we will be backing the Raptors again tonight in a series that is due for a close game after the first three games being decided by 15, 19 and 31 points. The fact that Cleveland is favored by so much on the road is public reaction once again and while many will be backing the Cavaliers to bounce back here, we are not one of those. As mentioned Saturday, we cannot ignore the fact that the Raptors finished just one game behind Cleveland in the Eastern Conference so a spread this big in this situation is a huge overreaction. Toronto picked it up on defense in Game Three as the Cavaliers were limited to just 20 points in the paint after getting inside for a combined 106 points in the first two games of the series. Additionally, the guard play was big as DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry had a big game combined with 52 points on 51 percent shooting and we should see that to continue here on the home floor. Toronto is now 6-1 ATS in its seven games this season as a home underdog, winning five of those outright while the Cleveland blowout loss adds to the fact that the Cavaliers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (714) Toronto Raptors |
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05-22-16 | Warriors -3 v. Thunder | Top | 105-133 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
We saw Toronto win last night in desperation mode as it finally cooled the red hot Cavaliers and while Oklahoma City now heads home, the situation is different. The Thunder stole Game One in Golden St. and it was a steal in the fact they really should not have won. As mentioned, it was a surprising defeat for the Warriors in Game One simply from the fact that Golden St. controlled most of the game and blew a 14-point lead. A look at the boxscore would suggest a Golden St. victory but the glaring stat that made the difference was free thrown as Oklahoma City doubled the made shots 22-11 while taking 15 more attempts. Taking a look at Game Two, Golden St. controlled it from the beginning and built a 35-point lead in doing so while many will be saying that the Thunder do in fact have a shot in this series, this is the swing game that will tell the story and show why the Warriors had the best regular season ever for a reason. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points while going 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games playing on three or more days of rest and the scheduling quirk in this series is definitely a benefit to them. 10* (711) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-22-16 | Mariners v. Reds +145 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
The Mariners have come into Cincinnati and taken the first two games of this series as their top two pitchers have posted a pair of gems with the bullpen backing them up with solid performances. On the flip side, the Reds have now dropped six straight games including four straight at home but we are taking the contrarian angle today before they take off an a 10-game roadtrip. Alfredo Simon is coming off a dreadful performance in Cleveland where he allowed 10 runs in just 4.1 innings but that came after a pair of quality starts which were at home. He got roughed up by the Cubs in his only bad start at home but his other three starts were all solid. Seattle counters with Wade Miley who has been up and down and no way should he be this big of a favorite on the road. He has a 4.354 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in five road starts but has been fortunate to get a ton of run support which is something we will not expect here in a bounce back performance from Simon. 10* (980) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +6.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is it for Toronto as a loss here sends the Raptors to a 3-0 deficit in this series which is one they cannot come back from. Even now the odds are against them based on the first two games following losses by 31 and 19 points so a home sweep is pretty much the only chance they have and it starts here. Toronto is 38-11 at home this season including a 6-2 record in the postseason and it has done a great job in dominating the elite teams as the Raptors are 19-9 ATS at home against winning teams while going 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record. The Cavaliers are playing at a high level right now as they are just the sixth team in NBA history to open the playoffs with a 10-0 record. Cleveland is peaking at the right time and the numbers are very impressive as they are averaging 108.5 ppg, shooting 44.7 percent from long range, 47.3 percent overall, while averaging 116.9 ppg per 100 possessions and outscoring opponents by 13.4 ppg. The series does not start until a loss at home is an old adage and the Raptors can prove that tonight as we should see the energy of the home crowd carry them to a cover at the very least. 10* (710) Toronto Raptors |
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05-21-16 | Nationals +130 v. Marlins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
The Nationals are riding a three-game winning streak thanks to some outstanding pitching as they have allowed three runs total over this stretch to extend their lead in the National League East to two games over the Phillies. Miami meanwhile has lost three straight games and it is a significant favorite here based on one reason and one reason only. Jose Fernandez. It is pretty well documented how good he has pitched at home throughout his young career and he has been solid again this season with Miami winning three of his four home starts. He has actually pitched better on the road this season as his home ERA is 3.42 which is very good but far from dominating. Joe Ross has been a huge surprise in the starting rotation as he is second on the team in starting pitching ERA and despite coming off a pair of non-quality outings, we can expect a bounce back here against the Marlins. He has a career 2.20 ERA against Miami, all of which has taken place this season and going back, the Nationals are 4-1 in his last five starts against National League East opponents. 10* (909) Washington Nationals |
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05-21-16 | Rangers +137 v. Astros | Top | 2-1 | Win | 137 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
The Astros continue to pile up losses following their second straight defeat in the opener of this series last night. Houston is sitting in last place in the American League West, eight games behind Seattle and looks the part of a much different team that put together a magical season a year ago. Texas is in the mix as it trails the Mariners by just a game and a half and the victory last night was a big one as the Rangers snapped a three-game skid after getting swept in Oakland to start the week. Cesar Ramos gets the call tonight and while he is winless on the season, he has pitched well in his first two starts, allowing four runs in 10.1 innings against the Blue Jays and Yankees. He has never started against Houston which is a good thing yet he has a terrific 1.46 ERA against the Astros in 10 relief appearances. The Astros give the ball to Mike Fiers who is off to an up and down season which makes him overpriced in this spot. He was favored by -156 against the 10-31 Twins and now is favored just slightly less against a 12.5 games better than Minnesota. The Rangers have won four of their last five against right-handed starters. 10* (925) Texas Rangers |
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05-21-16 | LA Sparks v. New York Liberty -1 | Top | 79-72 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
We played against Los Angeles last night and it backfired bigtime as the Sparks won their second straight game of the season by 30 points. The first came against Seattle, a team projected to finish near the bottom of the Western Conference and Washington is looking far from the team that will be going to the postseason for a fourth consecutive season. Los Angeles will now be challenged for the first time this season as New York is also off to a 2-0 start. The Liberty defeated Dallas in their most recent game at home and they are in a great scheduling spot here has they have been off since last Sunday while Los Angeles is in the second of a back-to-back set. The Sparks have not opened a season 3-0 since 2003 and going back to last season, they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games playing with no rest. Last season, they won just five of 19 games as underdogs and this is the first time in this role this season. The rest should pay off for New York which is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games playing on three or more days rest. 10* (652) New York Liberty |
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05-20-16 | Royals +158 v. White Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 158 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The White Sox got another gem from Chris Sale last night as he improved to 9-0 on the season which is the same amount of games Chicago is over .500 on the season. Despite the victory yesterday, the White Sox are just 2-6 over their last eight games and are laying a massive number against an obviously quality team. The Royals are coming off a 4-2 homestand, winning their respective series over Atlanta and Boston and are now right at .500 on the season which has put them 4.5 games behind Chicago in the American League Central which makes this a very important three-game series. Dillon Gee will be making his second start of the season following a decent effort against the Braves, a team that has seen him numerous times while he was with the Mets. The White Sox do not have that luxury as they have never faced Gee who brings in a 2.38 ERA on the road over 11.1 innings. Jose Quintana has been outstanding for Chicago, a big reason the line is huge, as he has a 1.54 ERA over eight starts. This is not the team he wants to face though as he is 1-6 with a 4.27 ERA, his highest ERA against any team he has started six or more times against. The Royals are 11-4 in their last 15 games against left-handed starters. 10* (971) Kansas City Royals |
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05-20-16 | Braves +160 v. Phillies | Top | 7-1 | Win | 160 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
We won with the Braves two nights ago and will come back with them again tonight as they open a three-game set at Philadelphia. Atlanta lost three of four at Pittsburgh after taking one of three in Kansas City so the road has been a struggles but not nearly as bad as they have been at home where they are a dreadful 2-17. The Phillies remain one of the biggest surprises in baseball with a 24-17 record following a pair of wins over Miami and they are just a game behind Washington in the National League East. They are seven games over .500 yet are -28 in run differential, by far the biggest variance of any team with a winning record. Aaron Nola has been a big part of the success as he has tossed five straight quality starts, all resulting in Philadelphia wins so we are taking the contrarian angle here as the moneyline is now the highest it has been all season for the Phillies. Matt Wisler is having a similarly successful season as he has a 3.14 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in seven starts with five of his last six starts being quality outings. The Phillies are 4-11 in their last 15 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 and despite the hot start, this is certainly a spot they can struggle in. 10*(953) Atlanta Braves |
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05-20-16 | LA Sparks v. Washington Mystics +6.5 | Top | 97-67 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Washington is off to a 0-2 start after losses to New York and Dallas, both by double-digits, and now the Mystics are already a public fade which we are seeing with this line tonight. They are not at full strength but they are now a home underdog for the third time this season after being a home underdog just twice last year and the number tonight is the biggest of the bunch by a wide margin. Los Angeles is playing its first game since Sunday which resulted in a 30-point victory against Seattle which is pegged to be one of the worst teams in the WNBA following a 10-24 record a season ago. The Sparks were paced by Candice Parker who scored 34 points and they were a different team with her last season after she returned from missing the early part of the season. Still, they went just 5-13 ATS last season as road favorites and while an argument can be made they should be the favorite here, it should not be by this much. Going back, the Sparks are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (602) Washington Mystics |
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05-19-16 | Giants v. Padres +139 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The Giants have won the first two games of this series thanks to a pair of complete game gems from Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto which moved their winning streak to seven games including six straight on the road. They are favored more tonight than they were last night however despite a lesser than favorable pitching matchup than Wednesday and we will jump on the home underdog. The Padres have dropped three straight games as the offense has totally shut down by scoring just four runs total over this stretch. The Giants are 1-5 in their last six games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game while the Padres are 5-2 in their last seven games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Jeff Samardzija looks to keep the pitching success going for San Francisco and granted, he has pitched good enough to do so. He has tossed three straight quality outings, his second such three-game stretch this season, and after the first one, he blew up by allowing five runs in 5.2 innings which happened to come against the Padres at the end of last month. James Shields counters for San Diego and he too has been very solid this season by posting a 3.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through eight starts, six of which have been quality. In two career home starts at Petco Park against the Giants, he has a 0.75 ERA over 12 innings. 10* (910) San Diego Padres |
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05-19-16 | Raptors +12 v. Cavs | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
We got blown out by playing Toronto in Game One of this series on Tuesday as the Raptors fell by 31 points but as the adage goes, no team is as good as it looked in its last game and no team is as bad as it looked in its last game. This is a similar spot to what we saw in the Western Conference Semifinals when Oklahoma City was blown out in Game One against San Antonio but came back to win the series after everyone wrote the Thunder off. Well, everyone has written the Raptors off and while comparing them to the Thunder is a stretch, pride takes over here after that embarrassing loss. We talked about the bounce angle yesterday and it is the opposite in this game from what it was in the Western Conference Game Two as Cleveland is actually favored by more tonight than it was on Tuesday which goes by the original bounce angle principles. Toronto needs a better effort from the point as Kyle Lowry has to be better than eight points, five assists and four turnovers than he put up in Game Two and the rebounding needs an improvement after betting outboarded 45-23. The Raptors are 6-0 this postseason following a loss and four of those other losses also were by double-digits and going back, they have covered seven of their last 10 games following a defeat. 10* (707) Toronto Raptors |
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05-19-16 | Connecticut Sun -3 v. San Antonio Stars | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
Connecticut opened its season with a blowout loss at Chicago but that was expected as the Sun came into that game as double-digit underdogs. Now they hit the road as favorites this afternoon which may seem overaggressive but it is for a reason. Despite the outcome last Saturday, Connecticut has the ability to be an above average team as it is vastly improved from its 15-19 record from last season as far as personnel goes. The Sun had a great draft and most important, they have Chiney Ogwumike back after she missed all of last season with a knee injury. She did not do much against Chicago but expect that to change here. San Antonio is coming off a tough overtime loss against Atlanta so while that may seem like a positive defeat, the Dream are the second worst team in the league just ahead of the Stars. San Antonio finished last season with the worst record in the WNBA at 8-26 while winning just five of 29 games as an underdog. Connecticut won and covered its only game last season as a road favorite and has covered four of its last five games after a loss while the Stars have failed to cover six straight home games. 10* (651) Connecticut Sun |
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05-18-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Despite losing in the first game of this series, Golden St. has seen the line go up from Game One and this is due to the bounce angle or as it used to be called, the zig-zag. This is where bettors played on the team coming off a loss in the previous game and it was a very lucrative system until the linesmakers picked up on it. Now they tend to shade the opposite side to avoid the bounce bettors to take advantage of a superior line and we are seeing that tonight. While we have to lay a slightly bigger number here, we feel comfortable in doing so with the Warriors which are obviously in must win mode tonight. It was a surprising defeat in Game One simply from the fact that Golden St. controlled most of the game and blew a 14-point lead. A look at the boxscore would suggest a Golden St. victory but the glaring stat that made the difference was free thrown as Oklahoma City doubled the made shots 22-11 while taking 15 more attempts. This was just the third home loss of the season for the Warriors and they followed those up with double-digit wins next time out. Additionally, they are a perfect 11-0 straight up and 8-3 ATS following a loss of any kind this season. The Game One victory was just the fourth in 16 games for the Thunder and while they are peaking, we will see probably one of the best efforts of the season from Golden St. 10* (706) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-18-16 | Cubs v. Brewers +174 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Milwaukee upset Chicago yesterday and while many will be backing the Cubs to snap their two-game losing streak, laying this type of number on the road in this situation is unwise. Chicago is just 2-4 over its last six games following an eight-game winning streak as the offense has been held in check in those four losses, scoring just seven runs total. Milwaukee meanwhile has won two straight and after a dreadful 8-15 start, the Brewers have gone 9-7 over their last 16 games including a 6-3 record at home. They send Jimmy Nelson to the hill tonight and he has been very solid with a 3.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in eight starts with Milwaukee going 5-3. He has been better at home as in five outings, he has a 3.09 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with four of those resulting in quality performances. John Lackey is riding a three-game quality streak but all of those were at home and his home/road splits have been ugly. In four home starts, He has a 2.12 ERA but in three road starts, he has a 5.79 ERA and even that is skewed as his one good outing on the highway came against his former team the Cardinals so he was jacked up for that. He has allowed six runs in each of his other two road starts. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-18-16 | Braves +183 v. Pirates | Top | 3-1 | Win | 183 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
The Braves fell behind last 9-0 in the second inning but give them credit behind former Triple-A Gwinnett manager Brian Snitker who is managing on an interim basis after the firing of Fredi Gonzalez as there was no quit. Tonight presents a great opportunity to snap their three-game losing streak where breaking the Pirates three-game winning streak. Pittsburgh has been pretty inconsistent this season however and going back, the Pirates are 1-4 in their last five after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Last season, Shelby Miller was the tough luck Braves pitcher as he won just six games despite a 3.02 ERA and 1.25 WHIP and that claim goes to Julio Teheran this season. He has yet to win despite a 3.17 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and those numbers are even better on the road but he is getting just 2.1 rpg of support. Atlanta finished with season highs in runs and hits (15) last night so carrying that into tonight is a good possibility. The Braves are 9-3 in his last 12 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Francisco Liriano has been inconsistent just like his team and is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing eight runs in 4.2 innings. 10* (953) Atlanta Braves |
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05-18-16 | Dallas Wings v. Washington Mystics -2.5 | Top | 87-77 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
We played against Washington on Saturday and while it held its own for a while, it was unable to keep up late and lost to New York by nine points. This is not the same team the Mystics have had on the floor and not the same team that we will see shortly as injuries and commitments abroad have left them far from full strength. The good news is they have had three days off and have yet to travel. Emma Meesseman certainly had an off day but that can be blamed on the fact she had just gotten back from Belgium and was clearly not back on U.S. time. Stefanie Dolson was also held in check as the duo were held to a combined 15 points on 5-of-18 shooting as the Liberty recorded a 42-22 advantage in the paint. Washington should have an easier time tonight though. Dallas meanwhile has yet to play at home and after pulling off a big upset at Indiana in its first game since relocating from Tulsa, it fell to New York the next day. The Wings are without Glory Johnson for the next five games and their star Skylar Diggins remains questionable after missing the first two games because of ACL rehab. Even if she goes tonight, she will be limited and not close to 100 percent. 10* (606) Washington Mystics |
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05-17-16 | Giants v. Padres +161 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
The Padres are back home following a solid 4-3 roadtrip but they were unable to make up any ground in the National League West as they are 4.5 games back in the National League West which is far from insurmountable. San Diego has not exactly lit it up at home as it is just 8-11 but it is hard to pass up a number this big which is based on name. The Giants took all four games in Arizona to open up its roadtrip and overall they are now on a five-game winning streak to move to four games over .500 to take over first place in the division. Madison Bumgarner has been on a solid run with five straight quality outings, the last four resulting in San Francisco wins so the contrarian angle is in play here. He has struggled on the road however with a 3.94 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in three starts but has been bailed out by solid run support. In two starts in San Diego last season, he posted a 7.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. San Diego turns to Colin Rea who has been decent and take away bookend starts at the Rockies and Cubs and his ERA drops from 4.24 to 2.61 in his other five starts. 10* (912) San Diego Padres |
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05-17-16 | Raptors +10.5 v. Cavs | Top | 84-115 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 18 m | Show |
The Cavaliers have steamrolled through the playoffs thus far, sweeping both Detroit and Atlanta and now they head into the Eastern Conference Finals as a very overvalued team. This is a very similar situation to the start of the series with the Hawks as Cleveland had a very lengthy layoff and was still able to win Game One big. The difference here though is the opening line as the Cavaliers were favored by 7.5 points over Atlanta and now they are favored by double-digits in this opener which is far too big of a number. Toronto is coming off series wins over Indiana and Miami with both going the distance and that actually works in its favor here as there is no lengthy layoff which means the momentum is still going strong. Winning this series will be a stretch for the Raptors but if they are going to steal a game in Cleveland, this is the likeliest one. We cannot forget that Toronto finished just one game behind Cleveland in the Eastern Conference and while the Cavaliers may be peaking, it is not going to be as easy as some may think. Toronto has been very solid in the role of an underdog this season, going 11-4 ATS in 15 games when getting four points or more including a perfect 2-0 ATS record when getting nine points or more. 10* (703) Toronto Raptors |
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05-17-16 | Red Sox v. Royals +118 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 118 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
This is the same play from Monday that was rained out. The Red Sox are coming off a very successful homestand where they went 6-1, the lone defeat coming by a run against the Astros after blowing a 5-1 lead. Boston is now 10 games over .500 which has it tied with Baltimore atop the American League East. It has been a slow start for the Royals as they are a game under .500 and that record along with the success of the Red Sox has them in the rare role of home underdog. Another piece of that has been the excellent pitching of Rick Porcello who is 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through his first seven starts. The last five have come against very average opposition and his two starts against the Blue Jays resulted in a 5.11 ERA. Kansas City counters with Yordano Ventura who has been up and down but he is coming off a quality outing in his last start and he now returns home following three straight starts on the road. At home, he has a 2.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in three starts, all resulting in Royals victories. Going back, the Royals are 14-3 in his last 17 starts against the American League East. 10* (956) Kansas City Royals |
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05-17-16 | Reds +201 v. Indians | Top | 1-13 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Cincinnati got crushed in the opener of this series as it lost 15-6 last night as the Indians broke it open with eight runs in their final three innings at the plate. The Reds remain in last place in the National League Central as the road struggles are well documented but this is an excellent bounceback spot. Cleveland snapped a two-game skid with the victory last night and they have been all over the place and are currently just a game over .500. The Indians won four straight games in early May but since then they have lost four straight games following a win. Now they come in favored by the biggest amount they have been all season. Danny Salazar has a lot to do with that as he has a 1.90 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in seven starts but Cleveland is just 3-4 in those games. The offense has given him 6.7 rpg in the three wins and just 2.0 rpg in the five losses. The numbers of Alfredo Simon suggest that the Indians will get the former tonight but I do not see it. His overall numbers are horrid for sure but it is due to two bad starts against the Cubs where he allowed 13 runs in just 3.1 innings. He has a 3.97 ERA in his other four starts and pitched well against the Indians last season. 10* (925) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-16-16 | Thunder v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Oklahoma City shocked many by defeating San Antonio but it really was not that shocking based on what the Thunder have. They showed glimpses all season of what they can be, but were prone to inconsistency and now they are peaking at the right time. They took care of the Spurs in six games which concluded with three straight wins and most impressive, the Thunder won in San Antonio twice after the Spurs lost at home just once all season prior to that. The Warriors have had little resistance through the first two rounds and they opened those with blowout wins in Game One and while those were against teams inferior to Oklahoma City, I expect a similar outcome here. While the Warriors ended their series early than the Thunder did which could bring in the rust factor, the fact is that it was only one more day so there is no argument there. On the flip side, the momentum gained from the San Antonio series could have been killed by the long layoff for Oklahoma City. Golden St. has lost at home only twice this season and has covered seven of its last eight games and additionally, the Warriors are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games playing on three or more days rest. 10* (702) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-15-16 | SEA STORM v. LA Sparks -8.5 | Top | 66-96 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
Los Angeles and Seattle open their seasons on Sunday in a matinee this afternoon and while we typically do not lay big numbers, we will make the exception here. The Sparks went just 14-20 last season but made the playoffs because of the bottom half mediocrity of the West. So even though they were bailed out by that, the biggest factor for a playoff run was Candice Parker who came back after missing the first part of the season. Without her, Los Angeles went 3-15 and with her, it went 11-5 so she is clearly a difference maker. Breanna Stewart could likely be the next big WNBA but do not expect things to be easy early on in her career. Seattle is a very young team that went just 10-24 last season and while the future looks bright, it will not be a big turnaround this season. Seattle was just 2-15 on the highway a season ago and is just 6-28 on the road over the last two seasons. We can factor in some revenge here as well. Seattle won just 10 games last season and four of those were against the Sparks as they swept the season series so Los Angeles will be out for some payback in its opener. 10* (652) Los Angeles Sparks |
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05-15-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Miami heads to Toronto for the decisive Game Seven Sunday afternoon and we again give a clear edge to the home team. After the host went just 1-2 during the first three games, including a 0-3 record against the number, the home team has won and covered the last three games in this series. Many believe the pressure is on the Raptors based on the fact they have never advanced past this round but the home floor is key here. Under head coach Eric Spoelstra, Miami is 4-1 in Game 7s but all four of those wins came at home while the lone loss happened to come on the road. Additionally, Miami is 11-0 at home in the playoffs when trying close out a series but just 4-5 on the road in such situations. History of the league is also going against Miami as no team has ever won two series in the same postseason when trailing 3-2. DeMar DeRozan could be the difference here as after a horrendous start to this series, he scored 34 points on 11-22 shooting in Game Five but regressed to just 23 points on 8-21 shooting Friday night. He has been a much better shooter at home all season and we should see another bounce back game from him today. 10* (550) Toronto Raptors |
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05-15-16 | Pirates +141 v. Cubs | Top | 2-1 | Win | 141 | 3 h 51 m | Show |
The Cubs are the best team in baseball, and by a pretty wide margin, as they are 27-8 while holding a nine-game lead in the National League Central over Pittsburgh and St. Louis. They got another dominant performance from Jake Arrieta on Saturday and they look to go for the series sweep today. Pittsburgh is just 3-4 on this current roadtrip and could use some momentum heading into its big homestand starting tomorrow. Despite the fact the Cubs have lost just eight games, we are getting a great price with the Pirates ace Gerrit Cole even though he has been inconsistent this season. He is coming off a quality outing which was his fourth in his last five games and while that one non-quality start came against the Cubs, a change in venue can help here as he has been better on the road than at home. Additionally, he is 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA in six starts at Wrigley Field, all being quality performances. Jon Lester counters for Chicago and he has been extremely solid this season but the Pirates have been bashing lefties this season, hitting .291. Going back, the Pirates are 6-1 in their last seven road games against left-handed starters while the Cubs are 2-5 in Lester's last seven starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (907) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-14-16 | Reds +138 v. Phillies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
While there are plenty of surprises in baseball this season, both good and bad, the biggest so far has to be the Phillies. After posting just 63 wins all of last season, Philadelphia already is a third of the way to that as it is 21-15 and just a game and a half out of first place in the National League East. The Phillies have not been favored much this season, only eight times in fact, and tonight represents the biggest moneyline of the season giving the Reds solid value. Cincinnati is off to a slow start which many expected but it is a respectable 4-4 over its last eight games with three of those losses coming by just a single run. While the Reds have struggled on the road, their offense has actually been better than the Phillies offense at home and starting pitching will play a big factor tonight. Tim Adleman has gotten off to a solid Major League start as he has posted a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in two outings covering 11 innings. If not for giving up two home runs, his numbers would be even better but he should not worry about that tonight as the Phillies are second to last in baseball in home runs. The Phillies counter with Aaron Nola who is showing why he has been labeled a star of the future as he has tossed four straight quality outings but all were on the road and he brings in an 8.25 home ERA into this one. 10* (955) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-14-16 | New York Liberty -1.5 v. Washington Mystics | Top | 87-76 | Win | 100 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
New York failed to capitalize on owning the best regular season record in the WNBA last season as it lost to Indiana in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Liberty added some firepower to the roster during the offseason and that will be big early with Epiphanny Prince coming off knee surgery in the offseason. New York was the only team to post double-digit road victories a year ago with an 11-6 mark. Washington finished 18-16 last season and made it to the playoffs for the third straight season before losing to the Liberty in the Conference Semifinals. This team is extremely young and even more so now with the loss of point guard Ivory Latta, the Mystics leading scorer from last season. While Washington should again be strong on defense, New York actually got better on that side of the ball coming off a season where the Liberty led the WNBA in scoring defense at 71.1 ppg and held opponents to a league-low 39 percent shooting. 10* (603) New York Liberty |
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05-14-16 | Twins +176 v. Indians | Top | 6-3 | Win | 176 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
The Twins will be out to avoid their ninth straight loss after dropping the opener of this series last night. The season has gotten off to a rough start for Minnesota which many thought could contend in the American League Central after posting an 83-79 record last season. The Indians finished a game over .500 last season and are now two games over .500 this season but remain very inconsistent in doing so. Despite the win, the Indians are 4-12 in their last 16 games against team with a winning percentage below .400. Ervin Santana gets the ball for Minnesota and despite the Twins going 0-5 in his five starts, he has not pitched that bad which gives him contrarian value. Going back to last season, Santana has allowed three runs or less in 12 straight starts. While Santana is just 4-10 in his career against the Indians in 19 starts, he's limited them to three or fewer earned runs in 14 of his last 16. Corey Kluber is coming off a rough outing, something that has become more common the last two seasons as it was rarely seen during his 2014 Cy Young campaign. Last September against the Twins, he allowed eight runs over 9.2 innings in a pair of losses, leaving him at 6-4 with a 3.64 ERA in 15 career starts in this series which is far from dominant. While Kluber may still be the ace of this team, he has not shown much of that. 10* (969) Minnesota Twins |
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05-13-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +142 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
The home struggles continued for Arizona last night as it dropped the opener of this series to fall to 5-13 on the season at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks got another uneven performance from Zack Greinke who has struggled in his first season in Arizona and it sends a similar pitcher to the hill tonight. The Giants have not been tearing things up as they have won two straight games but going back, they are just 13-16 over their last 29 games and seven of the overall wins have come with Johnny Cueto on the hill. Tonight, it is Jeff Samardzija who has been solid but the winning results are not great as San Francisco is just 4-3 in his seven starts including a 2-2 record on the road. He has not fared well at Chase Field with a 6.75 ERA in two starts. Shelby Miller is the pitcher mentioned above as he has struggled early in the season following a great year in Atlanta last season. He is coming off a quality outing however and that was his first of the season which could give him a big boost heading into tonight. 10* (912) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-13-16 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Toronto took Game Five but it was not as easy it as looked like it should have been as the Raptors blew a 20-point lead and nearly gave it away. They were able to hang on and now have Miami against the ropes as the Heat are now forced to win the final two games of what has been a pretty ugly series. DeMar DeRozan broke out of his shooting slump and scored 34 points but who knows if he can sustain that while Kyle Lowry continues his struggles as he was just 9-25. The game tonight marks the eighth time in team history the Raptors have had a close-out opportunity. They have won two of those seven previous games. While the pressure seems to be on Miami, I think it is the other way because of the Toronto inability to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals and Miami has the experience to keep this one going and send it to a decisive Game Seven on Sunday. It was nearly the same situation they faced in the first round against Charlotte, winning Game Six on the road to stay alive and crushing the Hornets in Game Seven. The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games while the Raptors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. 10* (546) Miami Heat |
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05-13-16 | White Sox v. Yankees +141 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
The White Sox are one of the biggest surprises in baseball as they are 23-12 which is the best record in the American League while their 13-7 road record is second only to the Mariners 13-6 mark. On the flip side, the Yankees have been a big disappointment as they are off to a 14-19 start and sit seven games behind Baltimore in the American League East. They are playing better though, going 5-2 on this current homestand and going back, the Yankees are 6-1 in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. This is the ultimate in contrarian plays when looking at the starting pitchers in this matchup. Chris Sale has been outstanding as he is 7-0 with a 1.79 ERA in seven starts but he is not going to go undefeated all season and Yankee Stadium has not been kind as Chicago is 0-3 in his three career starts there. Conversely, Luis Severino is 0-5 with a 6.12 ERA in six starts, all being Yankees losses. With the same thinking, he will not go winless and last September, he shut out the White Sox for six innings. 10* (916) New York Yankees |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Oklahoma City has taken three of the last four games in this series and feasibly could have taken all four to move into the lead and can close it out tonight. While many feel the pressure is on the Thunder to win here to avoid a Game Seven in San Antonio, I think it is the opposite as right now. Oklahoma City is playing loose and has shown a matchup advantage since getting blown out by 32 points in the opener of this series when some people were proclaiming the series was already over. We cannot ignore the fact that during the regular season, the Spurs and Thunder split the series at two games apiece with Oklahoma City covering all four meetings and on the season overall, the Thunder have won three of the four meetings at home. The last victory here came by 14 points but more importantly, the Thunder were favored by a bucket but now they are getting a bucket which is too big of an overadjustment. The Thunder are 30-10-2 ATS in their last 42 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (544) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-12-16 | Astros +143 v. Red Sox | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Looking at these records, they should be reversed based on last season and expectations for this season but the fact is the Astros are underachieving while the Red Sox are overachieving. Boston has won four in a row following a home sweep of Oakland where it scored 13, 13 and 14 runs in the three games but that offense cannot keep it up. Houston has won three of its last four games so it is moving in the right direction. Anytime you can get a reigning Cy Young winner at an underdog price this big, it is worth the take despite Dallas Keuchel getting off to a poor start. He started off fine with a 2.18 ERA through his first three starts but a rough three-game stretch where he posted an 8.82 ERA was a shocker. He bounced back with a quality outing last time out as he allowed two runs in seven innings against the Mariners and going back, the Astros are 21-5 in his last 26 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. David Price has not lived up to his monster contract as he has been all over the place with just two of six starts resulting in quality performances. He is 4-1 as he has been bailed out with 6.6 rpg of support but that does not happen tonight. 10* (963) Houston Astros |
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05-11-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4 | Top | 91-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
While San Antonio could not take advantage of having pivotal Game Five at home last night, Toronto will take advantage tonight and take the lead in the series, forcing the Heat to win the final two games to take the series. This has been the best series in the postseason as far as close games as three of the four games have gone into overtime while the other game resulted in a four-point differential. Toronto has only lost at home 11 times this season and I think if there is a game in this series we see a blowout, this could be the one. A big reason for that is we have yet to see DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry breakout as they have been far from efficient. DeRozan has shot 33 percent and 3 of 19 from beyond the arc this postseason while Lowry has connected at 33.1 percent and 19.7 from long range. The opposing defenses have played their roles in stopping the backcourt due but a return home for pivotal Game Five could see some fireworks. Toronto has won 21 of 30 games this season following a loss while Miami is just one game over .500 following a victory. 10* (538) Toronto Raptors |
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05-11-16 | Royals +135 v. Yankees | Top | 7-3 | Win | 135 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
The Royals have dropped the first two games of this series to fall two games under .500 and they now trail the White Sox by seven games in the American League Central. It has been a slow start for the reigning World Series champions but tonight presents a good bounce back opportunity. Despite the two wins over Kansas City, the Yankees are still five games under .500and I think they are overpriced based on their struggles to date. Michael Pineda takes the hill for the Yankees and he has been up and down even though he has been performing more toward the former right now. He has allowed a pair of runs in each of his last two starts after getting roughed up by Tampa Bay which was his second poor start at home this season where his ERA is now 6.95 compared to 3.27 on the road. The Royals counter with Yordano Ventura who has struggled of late which is part of the reason Kansas City is a significant underdog. We go contrarian once again based on that and after posting two straight starts where he allowed five runs over four innings, we should see a dramatic improvement here. Going back, the Royals are 20-6 in his last 26 starts following a team loss in their previous game. 10* (921) Kansas City Royals |
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05-10-16 | Thunder +7 v. Spurs | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
With the series tied at two games apiece, it has become a best-of-three competition and Oklahoma City will not advance unless it wins at least one more time in San Antonio and it has already proven it can win there. And of course, we do not even need the outright win as a close finish cashes us a ticket which I expect to be the case here. The Thunder evened the series with a home win after San Antonio regained home court with a Game Three win. Oklahoma City closed as a 2.5-point favorite last time out and now we are seeing a line adjustment of 9.5 points and that is too much in my opinion with the situation at hand in a pivotal Game Five. This is one of those games where there is so much on the line that we will see a strong effort on the defensive end on both sides and that favors the underdog, especially a big one that is the case here. Going back, the Thunder are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning straight up record while covering four of their last five road games. Meanwhile, San Antonio is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while going 2-7 ATS in its last nine games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (535) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-10-16 | Brewers +153 v. Marlins | Top | 10-2 | Win | 153 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Miami won the opener of this series last night behind a solid performance from Jose Fernandez which snapped a two-game skid. The Marlins are three games over .500 and three games out in the National League East. The Brewers fell to 2-3 on this current roadtrip and while the offense was handcuffed last night, they came in averaging 6.6 rpg in their previous nine games. We played against Tyler Chatwood last night and we are playing against Adam Conley tonight for much of the same contrarian reasoning. Conley is coming off a pair of solid efforts where he allowed no runs covering 13 innings but previous to that, he opened the season with just one quality start in his first four games. Zach Davies counters for Milwaukee and while his numbers look awful, he has gotten progressively better with his last start culminating in a quality performance. The Brewers are 0-4 in his four starts which is partly the reason he is in his biggest underdog spot of the season. 10* (953) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-10-16 | Tigers +146 v. Nationals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 146 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The Tigers lost a tough one last night as Clint Robinson hit a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth to secure a 5-4 Washington win. That snapped a four-game skid for the Nationals while adding to the losing skid for Detroit which has now reached seven games. Detroit sends its top pitching prospect to the hill tonight as Michael Fulmer makes his third career start. His first outing was not that bad as he allowed two runs over five innings and he was hurt by the long ball in his second start against the Indians. Facing the Nationals may seem daunting but they have struggled offensively with a .239 average, fifth worst in the National League, including .228 against righties. The Tigers are hitting .266 against right-handed pitching and they look to solve Joe Ross who has gotten off to a great start with a 1.23 ERA in five starts, four of which have been quality. The Nationals are just 1-4 in their last five against right-handed starters while the Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games against righty starters. 10* (975) Detroit Tigers |
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05-09-16 | Warriors -4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Portland got back into the series with a win on Saturday but it will be short lived as we are switching sides here and laying road points with the Warriors. Golden St. is in a very similar spot as it was in during the first series where it rolled in the first two games over Houston but then lose Game Three on the road only to recover with a 27-point win in Game Four which solidified the series. The Blazers are no slouch at home which is a big reason we played on them Saturday but the Warriors road record is actually 3.5 games better. Golden St. has won five of the seven meetings this season and all of those wins were by double-digits so when taking Portland serious, there is no battle. The loss of Stephen Curry has not been a big concern as the Warriors have been fine without him and while he is irreplaceable, his absence has actually helped in keeping this number down as a price that is more than playable in this situation. Golden St. is a perfect 10-0 this season straight up following a loss while covering seven of those games. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (531) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-09-16 | Diamondbacks +136 v. Rockies | Top | 10-5 | Win | 136 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
We are going contrarian with Arizona here based on the starting pitching matchup. The Diamondbacks are coming off a sweep in Atlanta over the weekend after getting swept in Miami prior to that. They are now 10-6 on the road and going back, the Diamondbacks are 35-17 in their last 52 road games against teams with a losing record. Colorado took care of San Francisco on Sunday to split the series and come away with a 6-4 roadtrip. Home field has not been kind this season as the Rockies are just 4-8 while losing five straight and heading back further, they are 2-7 in their last nine home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Tyler Chatwood has been on fire and that is one half of the contrarian angle as he has not allowed a run over his last two starts covering 14.1 innings. Run support has been an issue at home where he has received just three runs total with the Rockies going 0-2. The Diamondbacks counter with Archie Bradley who made his first start of the season against the Giants back in April and it was not pretty but after a great run at AAA Reno, he has been recalled. Back to last season, the Diamondbacks are 4-0 in his last four starts against the National League West. 10* (907) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Oklahoma City let one get away on Friday as it rallied from a 15-point deficit only to lose by a pair of buckets. The Thunder are now in must win mode as a loss here would send them back to San Antonio in a 3-1 hole which is unrecoverable at this point. Oklahoma City fell down early in Game Three and the Spurs were able to play well on the road as they had the advantage of not playing from behind but we should see the Thunder turn the tables tonight and get out to a quick start. One big factor the Thunder should not have to worry about tonight is Tony Parker, who scored 19 points Friday which was 10 more points than his first two games combined. On the flip side, Russell Westbrook uncharacteristically folded down the stretch as he committed two costly late turnovers while missing 21 of 31 shots and he admitted after the game that that was not the role he should be in so expect a bigger effort from Kevin Durant tonight. Additionally, the Spurs managed 14 more free throw attempts in Game Three which is a rarity for the road team especially in a playoff game. The Spurs are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while the Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (528) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-07-16 | Mets v. Padres +135 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
San Diego has won the first two games of this series against two of the best Mets pitchers thanks to great pitching and we expect that to continue tonight. After allowing 13 runs back on April 27, the Padres have allowed just 13 runs over their last eight games. After an eight-game winning streak, the Mets have dropped four of their last six with an inconsistent offense and they are in position to be shut down again. James Shields has been a tough luck pitcher this season as he finally won his first game last time out after the Padres dropped his first five starts. He has pitched good enough to many more however as five of his six starts have been quality outings and overall he has posted a solid 3.23 ERA. His only poor start came in Colorado where he has struggled at in the past and run support has been the big issue as he is getting just 1.3 rpg behind him. Bartolo Colon is coming off his best start of the season as he allowed no runs in eight innings against the Braves which makes this a perfect time to go against him. In his last two starts against San Diego, he has allowed 10 runs in just 7.1 innings and going back, the Mets are 0-5 in his last five starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (914) San Diego Padres |
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05-07-16 | Warriors v. Blazers +4 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
The favorites came through again last night as both San Antonio and Cleveland won and covered as road chalks and we find the Warriors in a similar role tonight. Golden St. has cruised to a 2-0 lead in this series although Game Two could have been a different outcome as the Blazers blew a 17-point lead and ultimately lost by 11 after getting outscored 34-12 in the final quarter. Portland is likely already done in this series as the Warriors have proved they can win without Stephen Curry, who will be out again tonight, but Portland has a good chance to steal a game tonight in the first game back home. The Warriors have won five of the six meetings this season all by double digits but this is the place where they suffered their worst loss of the season as they went down by 32 points despite Curry contributing a team high 31 points. Pride is a big part in this league and with a 31-13 home record, the Blazers will be playing with that tonight. Going back, the Blazers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (524) Portland Trail Blazers |
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05-06-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The Spurs and Thunder shift to Oklahoma City for Game Three with the winner having a big edge going forward. San Antonio embarrassed the Thunder in the opener by 32 points but failed to capitalize on that as they lost for just the second time all season at home in Game Two on a very controversial ending. Oklahoma City has been a home underdog only once this season and that came against Golden St. in February where it blew a late lead and lost in overtime no thanks to 22 turnovers. The Thunder should be pretty motivated tonight after stealing that game in San Antonio on Monday as they gained the home court advantage and are clearly not getting any respect based on the line. Oklahoma City is 34-10 at home this season and playing against the elite teams has been no problem as going back, the Thunder are 29-9-2 ATS in their last 40 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile, the Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (520) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-05-16 | Nationals +138 v. Cubs | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The Cubs are on a historic pace and are off to their best start in over a century following a sweep in Pittsburgh where they outscored the Pirates 20-5 thanks to solid starts from their big three. They are 13-3 on the road which is the best road record in baseball but not by as much as you would think as Washington comes in with an 11-4 record on the highway. Not to be outdone, the Nationals are off to their best start since 1979 when they were in Montreal so the fact they are big underdogs here is a bit perplexing. Chicago has the best ERA in baseball thanks to sub-2.00 ERAs from Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and Jason Hammel but Kyle Hendricks has not helped with the overall ream ERA with his sitting at 3.91. He is the only starter with two losses and his run support has not helped matters as he is getting just 3.0 rpg. There is a strong chance that does not get better as Joe Ross has quietly put together a fantastic start to the season as he has a 0.79 ERA through four starts. He was forced to leave his third start after two innings with a blister but he was given extra rest and his last start showed no lingering effects. 10* (907) Washington Nationals |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Toronto almost pulled off the miracle win on Tuesday as it tied the game in regulation on a half-court shot from Kyle Lowry but was unable to carry that momentum into overtime and lost by six. The Raptors have already lost home court advantage in this series and can ill afford to go down 2-0 so it can be argued the season is on the line tonight. It has been five straight games where they have not covered but we should see a big effort at home tonight. Miami got huge performances from Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade who went a combined 20-41 from the floor but the rest of the team was just 40.8 percent from the floor and it was the opposite from Toronto and its two big stars as Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were just 12-35 combined from the floor. It is imperative for those two to play better and one thing we should see tonight is the Raptors playing faster and pushing the pace. Even with the loss, Toronto has a home court edge as it is now 35-11 and going back it is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games after a loss while the Heat are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. 10* (516) Toronto Raptors |
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05-05-16 | Diamondbacks +135 v. Marlins | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
After a poor start to the season, Miami has caught fire with wins in nine of its last 10 games which has come after a 5-11 record in its first 16 games. The Marlins success during this stretch has been mostly on the road surprisingly as they are 10-5 on the highway compared to just 4-7 at home. Arizona expected to make some strides this season but that has not been the case as it is just 12-17 following its fifth straight loss last night. This is the contrarian play to end the series before the Diamondbacks head to Atlanta. Robbie Ray looks to bounce back from a pair of bad outings as he was tagged for 10 runs in seven innings against the Pirates and Rockies but those came at home where Chase Field has yielded a ton of runs this season. In two road starts, he has a 1.46 ERA, both of which have been quality outings. Miami turns to Adam Conley who is coming off a no-hitter which of course did not count since he was pulled after 7.2 innings and 116 pitches. It was an encouraging effort that came out of nowhere after he had allowed four runs in each of his last two starts so we can expect a regression to that. 10* (903) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-04-16 | Twins +139 v. Astros | Top | 4-16 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Two underachieving teams conclude their three-game set tonight as Minnesota and Houston go for the series win after splitting the first two games. The Twins took the opener prior to losing last night 6-4 behind a rough outing from Alex Meyer who was making his first Major League start. Minnesota dropped to 8-19 on the season but the Astros improved to just 9-18 and showing what a different season it is compared to last year, they did not lose their 18th game until May 27. Even worse, Houston is 0-8 this season following a win. Phil Hughes takes the hill for the Twins and while his numbers look average, he has been efficient for the most part as in five starts, four have resulted in quality outings. He has been hurt by poor run support but that should change here against Mike Fiers who has been much less consistent. Only two of five starts have been quality outings including just one of three at home. The Astros are 0-4 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (971) Minnesota Twins |
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05-04-16 | Hawks +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
We lost with the Hawks in the opener of this series and it was a tough one to take as they came back from an 18-point deficit to actually take the lead with eight minutes to go in the game but the Cavaliers closed on a 25-13 run to pull away to take a 1-0 series lead. They have had the Hawks number both recently and going back as Cleveland has won and covered all four meetings this season and going back to last season, it has won eight straight meetings. Additionally, the Cavaliers have won nine straight postseason meetings and have never lost to Atlanta in the playoffs. One of the good things that came out of that game for Atlanta was the fact it never gave up as being down 18 points late in the game can often lead to a team throwing in the towel and moving on. The Hawks fell to a game under .500 on the road this season but that is still pretty respectable and while they have yet to cover in the three games played in Cleveland this season, they are in a good situation to keep this one close. The Cavaliers have covered just five of its last seven games following a double-digit win. 10* (513) Atlanta Hawks |
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05-04-16 | Dodgers +154 v. Rays | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
We are getting a lot of value with the Dodgers here as they have been favored in 23 of 27 games and tonight marks the biggest underdog price of the season. After losing six straight games, Los Angeles has won the last two games including the series opener last night as the offense exploded for 10 runs which is just one run less than its total runs scored during that losing skid. Tampa Bay dropped to 11-14 despite 17 of 25 games being played at home where it is one game under .500. The offense has been an issue, scoring three runs or less in 18 games this season. That is good news for Alex Wood who has been inconsistent this season but his two worst starts came against Colorado and San Francisco, two of the top six offenses in baseball. His other three starts have resulted in a 2.50 ERA. Drew Smyly has been solid of late as he has tossed four straight quality games and that is what is driving this line to where it is. He is 0-3 at home however as he is getting just 1.67 rpg at Tropicana Field. 10* (979) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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05-04-16 | Nationals v. Royals +143 | Top | 13-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
Baseball lines are dictated by starting pitching and that is certainly the case in this game as Washington comes in as a big road favorite today. The Nationals are off to a solid 18-8 start and lead the Mets by a game and a half in the National League East but after opening this roadtrip with four straight wins, they lost a tough one last night by allowing three runs in the ninth inning. The Royals can carry that momentum into this afternoon as they turn to Kris Medlen who is off to an average start but he has only one really bad start. He allowed seven runs in 3.2 innings against the Orioles, one of the top offenses in baseball, but he has posted a 2.16 ERA in his other three starts. Stephen Strasburg is off to a sensational start and he is the reason for the high price as he has yet to lose and the Nationals are 5-0 in his five starts thus far. The contrarian side is the home underdog as the Royals are 40-18 in their last 58 home games against right-handed starters. 10* (978) Kansas City Royals |
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05-03-16 | Phillies +148 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-0 | Win | 148 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
The surprising start for the Phillies took a small hit last night as they had their six-game winning streak snapped as the Cardinals erupted for 10 runs, six being charged to starter Jeremy Hellickson. The starting pitching has been the main reason for the success while the bullpen has steadily improved. St. Louis snapped a four-game slide with the victory to get back to .500 and it has not been a typical Cardinals team that we normally see take the field. They give the ball to Michael Wacha who has tossed four straight quality starts including two at home. While he is hot, the Phillies can cool him off as last season, he posted a 7.59 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in two starts against Philadelphia. The Phillies counter with Aaron Nola who is a top young pitcher in their rotation. He is coming off a pair of quality outings and is 3-3 on the road where he has a 0.86 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. Overall, his WHIP is 0.88 so he allowing very few baserunners and he has a solid 3.58 ERA in 18 career starts. 10* (909) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-03-16 | Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Both Miami and Toronto won Game Seven on Sunday so from a momentum standpoint, there should be no advantage either way. From a travel standpoint however, Toronto has the huge edge of being able to remain home while the Heat have to hit the road with just one day of rest after a home game. The Raptors closed as a six-point favorite in Game Seven against Indiana and now the number is lower against Miami, which is not really that much of a better team than the Pacers, and a reason for the spread decline is because Toronto has dropped four straight games against the number. The Raptors went 3-1 at home against Indiana to improve to 35-10 at home on the season. The Heat have not been a very good road team this season as they are currently two games under .500 on the highway and have failed to cover eight of their last 10 road games. Miami has struggled in this role as it is 8-15 ATS this season as an underdog of fewer than seven points including a 1-2 ATS record against Charlotte in the previous series. 10* (508) Toronto Raptors |
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05-03-16 | Giants v. Reds +146 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The Giants grabbed the series opener last night thanks to a five-run seventh inning as they got to the Reds bullpen which has been an issue all season. San Francisco is back to a game over .500 as it is on a current 5-2 run. The Reds are on a very poor stretch with seven losses in their last eight games but the offense has come alive the last two games, scoring six runs in each. They look to keep that going against Jeff Samardzija who has been up and down this season. He is coming off his worst start thus far as he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings but his offense bailed him out, scoring 13 runs against the Padres. The Reds have been a nemesis as he is 1-5 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 10 starts and 15 relief appearances. Jon Moscot got scratched and John Lamb was activated to take his place. In three rehab starts, he had a 12/3 K/BB ratio in 13.2 innings and averaged 10.5 K/9 over 10 starts with the Reds late last year. Plenty of value on the Reds in this spot. 10* (906) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-02-16 | Thunder +8 v. Spurs | Top | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Oklahoma City was a huge letdown on Saturday as it got embarrassed in a game it never led, trailed by as many as 43 points and ended up losing by 32 points. It was one of those games where the Thunder could not buy a basket in the first half whereas the Spurs could not miss so the game was well over by halftime. How bad was it? Just 4 1/2 minutes into the game, Oklahoma City faced its largest deficit of the playoffs up to that point. The lopsided result of that game is playing a role in this line being higher that Game One and the Thunder have covered both games when getting this many points this season. One thing that is for certain is that the Spurs are not going to look as good as they did and the Thunder are not going to look as bad. Adjustments will need to be made as the Thunder need to run when they can and cannot allow the San Antonio defense to settle in the half court as that it clearly its strength. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while the Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (509) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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05-02-16 | Hawks +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Atlanta has not had much luck with Cleveland of late as after taking three of four regular season meetings last year, the Hawks were swept by the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals and then lost all three regular season meetings this year. That is driving this line up higher than it should be and they now go from a three-point road favorite in their last game against Boston to a 7.5-point road underdog the very next game. They took out Boston in six games and while they come into this game with less rest than Cleveland, they have been off since Thursday so that is certainly sufficient. The Cavaliers made it look easy against Detroit as they swept the Pistons which was a surprise to some after they held their own against Cleveland during the regular season. They covered one of two at home in that series and this is not a number the Cavaliers have had success with this season as they are 19-28 ATS when favored by seven or more points. On the flip side, the Hawks have lost all four games this season when getting points in this range but they make up for it by going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (503) Atlanta Hawks |
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05-02-16 | Rangers +130 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-1 | Win | 130 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Texas should have a little extra juice for this game as they will be out for a little bit of payback from last season after losing in the American League Divisional Series after winning the first two games. And of course, there was the infamous bat flip from Jose Bautista. Texas had a four-game winning streak snapped with a loss to the Angels yesterday while Toronto is coming off a series win over Tampa Bay. It has been a disappointing start for the Blue Jays and it has been the offense that has been the issue which is a huge surprise after last year. A.J. Griffin had two solid seasons in Oakland before injuries kept him out of the Majors for two seasons. He is back with the Rangers and has pitched excellent over four starts, posting a 2.52 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. With three of those resulting in quality outings. He won a job in the rotation thanks to a solid spring where he posted a 1.22 WHIP and 19:2 K:BB ratio. Toronto counters with R.A. Dickey who has been all over the place and has mostly been bad more so than good. Overall, he has a 6.75 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP over five starts and he clearly needs the offense to bail him out, which has not happened as he is getting just 3.2 rpg of support. 10* (961) Texas Rangers |
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05-01-16 | Pacers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 84-89 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Indiana has covered three straight in this series, winning two outright, including a victory on Friday that sends this series to the Game Seven finale tonight. Because the Pacers have covered three in a row, we are getting value with the Raptors as this is the lowest line of the series at home and is down a full bucket from the last game here. Despite the series being knotted at three games apiece, this has been a horrible series to watch as five of the six games have been decided by double-digits and that one game that finished close should have been a double-digit blowout by Indiana but Toronto made a miraculous fourth quarter comeback. While the Raptors fell apart in the second half on Friday, they can use that big comeback at home as motivation for this one and we cannot forget they are 34-10 at home this season while the Pacers are four games under .500 on the road while of the Pacers 20 road wins the entire season, only five have come against teams that are competing in the postseason. The Pacers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points while the Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. 10* (726) Toronto Raptors |
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05-01-16 | Astros +144 v. A's | Top | 2-1 | Win | 144 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
We won with Houston on Wednesday and will come back with the Astros today as they are again riding another losing skid so the value has continued to go up. After winning just 51 games in 2013, the Astros improved that by 19 games in 2014 and by 35 games last season so the fact they are off to a miserable 7-17 start is very surprising. Oakland had lost five of six games prior to this series but have taken the first two games but has been fortunate to having to face any big guns and while Doug Fister may not be considered a big gun, he has the potential. He is off to a slow start but the troubles came in his first two outings and since then, he has tossed back-to-back quality games, both of which also came on the road. He is now getting his highest underdog moneyline because of the overall team results. Rich Hill counters for Oakland and he has been very solid in his first season with the team after coming over from Boston. I am still not sold on him as he made just four starts in Boston last season after an Independent League stint and he has made only nine starts since 209. The Astros are hitting .272 against lefties and Hill is the perfect guy for Houston to get the sluggish recent offense going once again. 10* (923) Houston Astros |
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05-01-16 | Braves +200 v. Cubs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 200 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
We are taking a shot with the Braves this afternoon as there is a ton of value in this line. Atlanta dropped the series opener on Friday 6-1 as it was shut down by a solid performance from Jon Lester. The Braves have been a 2-1 underdog four times this season and taking a look at the opposing pitchers in those games tells the reason why. The Cubs are on a four-game winning streak and already look well on their way to winning the National League Central but with good records comes overinflated lines which we are seeing here. John Lackey came over from St. Louis and he has been inconsistent. He tossed a gem against his former team but he has allowed six runs in two of his other three starts so a starter with a 4.97 ERA should not be favored this big. Another reason is that Julio Teheran has gotten off to a slow start as he is 0-3 while the Braves are 0-5 in his five starts. However, he only had one bad start at Washington while two of those five games have been quality outings with a third missing by just two-thirds of an inning. He has never lost to the Cubs in five start and has posted a 3.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP along the way with Atlanta winning all five of those games. 10* (909) Atlanta Braves |
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05-01-16 | Hornets v. Heat OVER 190 | Top | 73-106 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
We are going with some of the same reasoning and analysis for Sunday as after putting up 109 points in the first half Friday, Miami and Charlotte managed just 78 points in the second half. After putting up 123 and 115 points in the first two games in this series, the Miami offense disappeared for three straight games, scoring just 80, 85 and 88 points. To no surprise, the over came through in the first two games in Miami and the under cashed both times in the games in Charlotte. A return to Miami should see more offense again despite Game Five staying under and the total has been steadily on the decline the entire series going from 199 to 190 which is at its lowest point and that presents great value. Going back to the regular season, four of five games taking place in Miami surpassed the total while all five games being played in Charlotte stayed under the number. Going back, the over is 8-2 in the Hornets last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record while the over is now 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Miami. 10* Over (727) Charlotte Hornets/(728) Miami Heat |
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04-30-16 | Thunder +6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 92-124 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Hopefully this series is better than the two series that Oklahoma City and San Antonio were involved in their first rounds and it definitely should be. While there was a 12-game difference in records during the regular season, these teams are more evenly matched than what that record shows. The Spurs are collectively more skilled, but the Thunder have done a better job than most at neutralizing that advantage. The home team dominated during the regular season but an edge goes to the Thunder as they won the lone game decided by double-digits (Spurs starters rested) while the Spurs home wins came in overtime in one and a 10-point differential in the fourth quarter in the other to make the difference. While the Thunder are all about Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, the key player in this series is Serge Ibaka as he can be a difference maker. Against the Spurs this year, the Thunder were a staggering 32.9 points per 100 possessions better with Ibaka on the floor vs. off and the matchups play a big role in that. Going back, the Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (501) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-29-16 | Rockies +136 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-0 | Win | 136 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Colorado is glad to leave town after going 1-5 in its recent homestand including getting swept by the Pirates to open the week. The Rockies pitching has been abysmal as their 5.93 ERA is the worst in baseball but most of that is due to Coors field where they have a 7.22 ERA and that comes down over three runs on the road. Arizona split its four-game set with the Cardinals which included a win last night as they shut out St. Louis 3-0. The Diamondbacks pitching has not been as bad but they do have a poor 5.61 ERA from the starters. Robbie Ray has been one of the better starters with a 3.80 ERA in four starts but that does not tell the whole story as he has a 1.59 WHIP to go along with that. His success has come on the road where he has a 1.46 ERA compared to a 7.00 ERA in two home starts. Like Ray, Tyler Chatwood has been much more effective on the road where he has a 0.68 ERA in two starts compared to a 7.20 ERA in two home starts. The Rockies are 4-1 in his last five road starts while Arizona has won just four of Ray's last 13 home starts. 10* (911) Colorado Rockies |
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04-29-16 | Heat v. Hornets OVER 190 | Top | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
After putting up 123 and 115 points in the first two games in this series, the Miami offense disappeared the last three games, scoring just 80, 85 and 88 points. To no surprise, the over came through in both games in Miami and the under cashed both times in the games in Charlotte while the last game also stayed under. The total has been steadily on the decline the entire series going from 199 to 198 to 196.5 to 194.5 to 194 and now the total is at its lowest and by a lot. We lost with the over in Game Five and we are going with it again here despite the fact that the first two games in this series in Charlotte stayed below the number. The Hornets offense, while efficient in the recent victories, is not the same unit that we are accustomed to and I think we see it return to form heading home. After averaging 11.1 three-pointers and 22.4 assists in the season's second half, Charlotte saw those averages sliced to 4.5 and 14.0, respectively, in Games Three and Four. The Miami offense has also fallen off after those first two games and we can expect the Heat to try and push the ball more as their halfcourt offense has been dismal. 10* Over (709) Miami Heat/(710) Charlotte Hornets |
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04-29-16 | Raptors +2.5 v. Pacers | Top | 83-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
After four straight blowout games in this series, we finally saw a competitive contest in Game Five but it really should not have been. The Pacers built a 17-point lead and looked like they were on their way to steal a game in Toronto and take the series lead but were outscored 25-9 in the fourth quarter. A last second shot to tie the game was nullified and now they have to try and regroup in a must win game but it is not going to be easy and the collapse will carry over into this game. The Raptors finally got a good offensive performance from DeMar DeRozan who scored a team high 34 points and despite shooting 40.2 percent as a team, the Raptors have some solid momentum heading to Indiana. The Pacers are a solid road team however Toronto has won here twice this season and its 24-17 road record during the regular season was tied for best in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are 16-8-1 ATS as underdogs this season and going back, they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss. 10* (711) Toronto Raptors |
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04-29-16 | Giants +142 v. Mets | Top | 1-13 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
After an incredibly slow start to the season, the Giants are back in the groove as after a home sweep of San Diego, they have won five of their last six games to move a game over .500. They are coming off a day off for travel and now tied for first place in the National League West, they are 9-3 in their last 12 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Mets are also red hot as they have won six straight games following back-to-back sweeps against the Braves and Reds. They send Steven Matz to the hill tonight and he is coming off his second quality start of the season after a very bad outing in his opener and his home/road splits have been the opposite of most as he has a 1.35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in two road starts while posting a 37.80 ERA and 4.80 WHIP in his lone home outing. San Francisco counters with Jake Peavy who also got off to a bad start but posted a solid quality performance last time out as he allowed just two runs in seven innings against the Marlins. 10* (905) San Francisco Giants |
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04-28-16 | Hawks -2 v. Celtics | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The home team has dominated this series as the host has won all five games with the latest being Atlanta taking control with a Game Five win on Tuesday. While the Celtics have been a quality team at home, the injuries are becoming more of an issue with Avery Bradley already out and now, Isaiah Thomas has to deal with an ankle sprain and while he will play, he will not be 100 percent. In Game Five, the Hawks were outscored 29-19 in the first 18 minutes of the game, before finding their best offensive rhythm of the postseason to ignite a 70-33 run to put Boston on the brink of elimination. The winner of Game Five in a series that was tied 2-2 has gone on to advance 82 percent of the time so the Celtics are in a tough spot with their backs against the wall and not close to 100 percent. While the Hawks have failed to cover their last six road games, they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points so going contrarian in the role of a road favorite is practical here. Boston has lost two of six games this season as a home underdog and while the public consensus is all over Boston, we ride the Hawks to clinch the series tonight. 10* (701) Atlanta Hawks |
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04-27-16 | Astros +119 v. Mariners | Top | 7-4 | Win | 119 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
After winning just 51 games in 2013, the Astros improved that by 19 games in 2014 and by 35 games last season so the fact they are off to a miserable 6-15 start is very surprising. Last night was a prime example as Dallas Keuchel was tagged for five runs in six innings and the reigning Cy Young winner now has a 4.41 ERA on the season. Overall, the starting pitching has a 5.38 ERA which is the main reason things have been rough. The Mariners have won six of seven games to move two games over .500 and their pitching has led the way to a solid turnaround after a bad start to the season. We are going contrarian here and backing Houston behind Colin McHugh who has gotten off to a poor start but heads to a place that has been great to him. He allowed five runs in just a third of an inning in his only road start this season at New York but he is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in three starts at Safeco Field, all three being quality outings. Hisashi Iwakuma has been pretty average this season with a 3.86 ERA through four starts and Houston has been a team he has struggled against as in six starts since 2014, he has a 5.35 ERA against the Astros. 10* (927) Houston Astros |
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04-27-16 | Blazers v. Clippers +3 | Top | 108-98 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
For obvious reasons, everyone has closed the door on the Clippers and their chances for giving the Warriors a run and even now having troubles getting through this series. While the former is most likely, the latter is far from over as the series is tied and the Clippers head home inspired to play well without Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. The loss of Griffin is big but not as big as many may think as Los Angeles did more than fine without him when he missed 41 games, Replacing Paul is impossible but we are getting a line that has been overadjusted too much. In the last meeting in Los Angeles during the regular season without Griffin, the Clippers were five-point favorites and now they go to a three-point underdog which is a big line shift. Portland should have a lot of confidence after tying the series up with a pair of wins at home but it went 7-5 this season as a road favorite and most of those were against poor teams that were much worse than the Clippers even without Griffin and Paul. "We have a very competitive basketball team and they have proven that all year," Clippers head coach Doc Rivers said. "We have won games before without key guys and we can win games in the future without key guys." And that is so true. 10* (578) Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-27-16 | Hornets v. Heat OVER 193 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
After putting up 123 and 115 points in the first two games in this series, the Miami offense disappeared the last two games in Charlotte, scoring just 80 and 85 points. To no surprise, the over came through in both games in Miami and the under cashed both times in the games in Charlotte. A return to Miami should see more offense again and the total has been steadily on the decline the entire series going from 199 to 198 to 196.5 to 194.5 and now the total is at its lowest tonight which presents great value. Going back to the regular season, all four games taking place in Miami surpassed the total while all four games being played in Charlotte stayed under the number so the postseason is keeping the trend alive. A main factor has been the Miami offense at home and the Hornets defense on the road as the Heat are shooting 48.8 percent on the season at home while averaging 104 ppg and on the flip side, the Charlotte defense has allowed opponents to shoot 46.2 percent from the floor while giving up 103 ppg. Charlotte has gone over the total in seven straight games prior to the last two contests and going back, the over is 5-0 in the Hornets last five road games. Meanwhile the over is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Miami. 10* Over (575) Charlotte Hornets/(576) Miami Heat |
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04-26-16 | Padres +183 v. Giants | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
San Francisco snuck out a one-run win last night in this series opener and after five straight losses, the Giants have won three of their last four games but are still a game under .500 overall. They trail the Dodgers by 2.5 games in the National League West as the pitching has been pretty ineffective. The Padres were expected to make some noise this season but they are off to a disappointing 7-13 start while riding a three-game losing streak. They send James Shields to the hill and he has pitched much better than the fact San Diego has gone 0-4 in his four starts. Three of his four starts have been quality outings but he has been backed by little to no offense as he is getting just 1.5 rpg. He should pitch well again as the Giants are just 2-5 in their last seven starts against right-handed starters. Johnny Cueto counters for the Giants he has been pretty solid in his first season here. He has struggled at home however with a 5.79 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in two games. Going back, the Padres are 5-2 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (963) San Diego Padres |
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04-26-16 | Reds +166 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
The Reds dropped the series opener last night against Noah Syndergaard but have a better matchup tonight. They have dropped four of their last five games and all have come against elite starters which is the main reason the offense has not been able to do much. New York has won four straight to move four games over .500 to keep pace in the National League East as it trails Washington by three games. The ageless wonder Bartolo Colon takes the hill for the Mets and he is off to another solid start with a 2.89 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in three starts but New York has gone just 1-2 in those games. Going back to last season, the Mets are 0-5 in his last five starts against teams with a losing record. Brandon Finnegan did not pitch well in his last start but it did not matter as the Reds to no-hit by Jake Arrieta so it was a good time to waste an outing. He posted a 2.04 ERA through his first three starts so he has been efficient for the majority of the time. Excellent value here with two fairly equal starting pitchers. 10* (953) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-26-16 | Pacers +7 v. Raptors | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The Toronto/Indiana series is tied at two games apiece but it has been anything but competitive. The first four games have all been decided by double-digits and going back to the regular season, all eight games have been decided by at least seven points. That would make Toronto the go to team tonight but I think we are finally in for a competitive game. Game Four was marred by a scuffle late so that makes this one interesting as tensions should be high even more so than what the importance of a Game Five means. Paul George has been a difference maker in this series on both ends of the floor, most importantly on the defensive side as he has held DeMar DeRozan to just 21-for-71 (29.5 percent) shooting this series. The Raptors have not won a playoff series since 2001, and with a blowout win on Saturday, the Pacers seem to have the edge even though they are back on the road. Indiana is 7-2 ATS this season when getting six points or more while going 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games playing on two days of rest. Meanwhile, the Raptors are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Conference Quarterfinals games. 10* (569) Indiana Pacers |
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04-25-16 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 206 | Top | 84-98 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
The Blazers won on Saturday to make this a series again after getting beat by 20 and 21 points in Los Angeles. While they will try and even up the series tonight, we are concentrating on the total where we are getting a ton of value based on the first three outcomes. The first three games of this series have gone under the total and we are catching the best line of them all as far as a game to go over. The total has shifted significantly as well, going from 210.5 in the opener to its current spot at 206. The last game saw just 184 points and that is making the jump from Game Three to Game Four the biggest thus far. Looking at numbers alone, both offenses are more than capable of putting up big numbers and the fact that the teams have not done it together in this series is a little surprising. Going back, the over is 5-2 in the Clippers last seven road games against teams with a winning home record while the over is 12-5 in the Blazers last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Over (565) Los Angeles Clippers/(566) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-25-16 | Heat v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 85-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Charlotte came through for us on Saturday as the venue switch did the Hornets well and we will come back with them again here. As mentioned, this series along with the Atlanta/Boston series were the two series in the playoffs that had the best potentials to go a full seven games and that feeling is still there. The Hornets and Heat are pretty evenly balanced despite all three games being decided by 12 or more points and while we will see a close game at some point, it may not be tonight after all. The Hornets dropped the first two games by a combined 44 points but they are not as bad as those games looked nor is Miami that good. We cannot forget these teams finished with the same record during the regular season and Charlotte comes in with a 31-11 record at home which is the third best record in the Eastern Conference and that is saying something. The value is still here as the lines should be in the range of -4 based or even more based on the parity of the teams. Miami has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games while Charlotte is 11-2 ATS as a favorite in this price range this season. 10* (562) Charlotte Hornets |
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04-24-16 | Cavs v. Pistons +6.5 | Top | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series. The 1951 New York Knickerbockers, the 1994 Denver Nuggets, and the 2003 Portland Trailblazers came back from a 3-0 deficit to tie the series at 3-3, but neither won their respective Game Seven. Detroit is not going to win this series but it is good enough to steal a game and avoid a sweep. The Pistons have lost the last two games of this series by double-digits after blowing a late lead in Game One but the fight is still there especially knowing that they took three of four meetings during the regular season. "Here's what it comes down to, we're all men, I know I don't want to get swept by anybody, I think that's very disrespectful," Pistons forward Stanley Johnson said. "So for us it's how much pride we have." Detroit needs to rebound better which it is very capable of and it needs some threes to fall as the Pistons have been unfortunate with Cleveland making 32 of 67 attempts the last two games while Detroit is just 10 for 40. We have a favorable line that is up nearly a bucket from Game Three and going back, the Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (560) Detroit Pistons |
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04-24-16 | Hawks v. Celtics -2 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
We won with Boston in Game Three and will come back with the Celtics in Game Four as they try to tie up this series. The Hawks made an admirable comeback on Friday but are again in a situation they have stumbled in. They jumped out to a 2-0 lead over the Nets in the first round last year, only to lose two games on the road before winning the series in six games. They have never swept a best-of-seven series and they are now 1-5 in Game 3s after taking a 2-0 lead. The Celtics return home was huge as after scoring seven points in the first quarter of Game Two, they scored 37 in Game Three while leading by 17 points after one quarter and by as many as 20 in the second quarter. They caught a break with Isaiah Thomas not being suspended for this game after his Dennis Schroder altercation and he was clearly the difference maker on Friday. Boston was much more effective from beyond the arc as it was 11 for 32 after going 16 for 63 (25.4 percent) in Atlanta. The Hawks are now 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record while Boston has covered five of its last seven at home. 10* (558) Boston Celtics |
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04-24-16 | Rangers +124 v. White Sox | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
The Rangers look to avoid a series sweep on Sunday in Chicago after dropping the first two games of this series including a loss in extra innings yesterday. Texas remains tied with Oakland in the American League West while the White Sox have now taken a half-game lead over Kansas City in the American League Central. Their 12-6 record is second best in the American League and they turn to Mat Latos who has been surprisingly brilliant to start the season. He is 3-0 with a 0.49 ERA and 0.60 WHIP through three start, all resulting in quality efforts. These are the situations we like to go against overachieving starters and Latos fits the bill. The Rangers counter with Derek Holland who has gotten off to a solid start as well, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in three starts. He has been plagues with injuries the last couple seasons but a solid spring training shows he could be back to his form of 2013 where he posted a 3.42 ERA over 33 starts. 10* (971) Texas Rangers |
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04-23-16 | Clippers v. Blazers +2 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
The first round of the NBA playoffs has been anything but exciting as 16 of the first 22 games have been decided by double-digits and two of the ones that were not ended up being nine-point margins. Two of the blowouts have taken place in this series as the Clippers have seized control with a 2-0 advantage after taking the first two games by 20 and 21 points. With the series shifting to Portland, we can expect to see a much different outcome here as the Blazers are fighting for their playoff lives and are in a must win spot here as falling down 3-0 is not an option. The Blazers are shooting 37 percent from the field in the series, including 27 percent from three-point range and it is their star Damian Lillard who has been handcuffed as he is shooting 33 percent from the floor and 21 percent from long range. Portland has won 20 of its last 24 home games and despite the last two efforts, the Blazers have been one of the top teams in the Western Conference over the latter half of the season and have covered eight of their last 10 after a double-digit loss. 10* (552) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-23-16 | Mets v. Braves +143 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
It has certainly been an up and down season for the Braves which opened the season 0-9 but were able to win four straight games before giving back their last three. They lost the series opener last night after handing the Mets a 4-0 lead in the second inning and New York finally got a decent outing from Matt Harvey. The Mets are off to an average start at 8-7 and while they arguably have the best starting rotation in baseball, it has yet to pan out with an inconsistent start. Steven Matz gets the ball tonight following a great start last time out as he limited the Indians to just three hits and no runs in seven innings. That came after giving up seven runs in just 1.2 innings against Miami in his season debut so which Matz shows up tonight remains in question. Atlanta counters with Jhoulys Chacin who is off to a solid start with his new team as he has posted a 2.38 ERA and 0.79 WHIP through his first two starts. Those were both on the road so we should see equally solid results in his home debut in Atlanta. 10* (904) Atlanta Braves |
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04-23-16 | Heat v. Hornets -2 | Top | 80-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Four teams have started their first round series down two games to none and heading into Saturday, three of those were able to cover Game Three with Detroit being the lone exception. Charlotte will look to continue that trend after losing the first two games in Miami and not by close margins. The Hornets dropped the first two games by a combined 44 points but they are not as bad as those games looked nor is Miami that good. We cannot forget these teams finished with the same record during the regular season as tiebreakers gave Miami the home court edge in this series but now heading back to Charlotte with their 30-11 home record, the Hornets are in excellent shape to cut into this series. The defense has been the issue and we will see a better effort at home than we did in the first two games in Miami. Going back, the Hornets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points while the Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 10* (548) Charlotte Hornets |
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04-23-16 | Raptors v. Pacers OVER 193 | Top | 83-100 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
The first three games of this series have gone under the total and we are catching the best line of them all as far as a game to go over. The total adjustments have been minor as the first two games closed at 195 while Game Three closed at 194.5 so we are seeing a bucket difference from the opener which may seem insignificant to some but it still represents value. Toronto seized control of the series with wins in the last two games after dropping Game One and it will be up to the Pacers offense to get things going after scoring just 87 and 85 points in the two losses. Indiana had the same number of turnovers as field goals in the first half, 12, so it was clear that it was a far from efficient effort. In total, Indiana has stayed under the total in five straight games while Toronto has stayed under in four straight none of which have had a total this low so the contrarian play has value on it as well. 10* Over (545) Toronto Raptors/(546) Indiana Pacers |
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04-22-16 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +12 | Top | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Pride goes a long way in sports and after getting embarrassed in the first two games of this series, expect Memphis to play with a lot of pride tonight. The Grizzlies, like the Rockets last night, are not going to win their first round series but a return to their home floor will have them in a much better place for Game Three. Memphis lost the first two games by 32 and 26 points so it comes as no surprise that the Grizzlies are getting double-digits at home for just the second time this season. The first took place less than two weeks ago when the Grizzlies were getting 13 points at home against Golden St. and nearly pulled off the upset as they lost by just a point. That happened to be their last home game as they have been on the road for their last four so a different environment can only help. The injury situation has a lot to do with everything but the fact is that laying double-digits on the road is not a typical situation in the playoffs and like Houston last night, if Memphis is going to steal a game in this series, this is the one. The Grizzlies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game while the Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (544) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-22-16 | Rangers +149 v. White Sox | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
We won with Texas last night and are coming back with the Rangers again tonight as they are catching a number that is severely overinflated. They are off to a 10-6 start and continues to lead the American League West by a game over Oakland while going back, the Rangers are 6-1 in their last seven series openers. Chicago is off to an identical 10-6 start but have no business laying a number this big when Chris Sale is not on the hill. Jose Quintana gets the ball and he is off to a solid start to the season which has followed four straight seasons where he has been very undervalued. Now the role has switched and too much for that matter. Texas turns to Martin Perez and his early season record is also playing a role in this number. Half of the Rangers losses have come when he is on the hill as they are 0-3 in his three starts but he has tossed a quality outing in each of those so it is far from his fault. Going back to last season, Texas has lost his last six starts and that is a streak we like going against as it does nothing but add value. 10* (971) Texas Rangers |
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04-22-16 | Hawks v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
Boston is so much better than what we have seen in the first two games of this series as it has trailed by at least 19 points in each game while leading by only three points once. The linesmakers agree with this as the Celtics are the only favorites tonight of the three teams that are down 2-0 but justifiably so. This is the likeliest of them all that could still go the length despite the historical odds against it but it all has to do with tonight and the Celtics know what has to be done. Avery Bradley missed Game Two and his absence was certainly felt but the problem was that Boston was down 17 after the first quarter so picking up the slack was not even an option as was mentioned for that game but returning home to Boston will energize this team in a big way. The Hawks have now won five straight games in this series going back to the regular season so Boston has a chip on its shoulder and a 19-3 record at home over its last 22 home games does not hurt matters. The Celtics are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game while the Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (542) Boston Celtics |
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04-22-16 | Cubs v. Reds +200 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The Cubs destroyed the Reds last night 16-0 as Jake Arrieta tossed a no hitter while the offense scored in all but three innings and the result of that game is playing a role in this line for tonight. Chicago has to now come down from that game which puts the Reds in a great situation for Friday. Cincinnati is off to a .500 start which is probably better than most expected even this early in the season and the loss last night was just the third one at home this season. Jon Lester has the pressure of following up the Arrieta gem and while he is off to a solid start this season, he is facing the Reds for a second time which is in favor of the home team that had a good game against him the first time. Cincinnati turns to Jon Moscot who has made just one start this season but it was a good one as he was one out short of a quality outing. This is his first start against the Cubs and despite the outburst last night, they are hitting just .250 on the season. Going back, the Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (954) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-21-16 | Warriors v. Rockets +5 | Top | 96-97 | Win | 104 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
It is pretty amazing how much one player can affect a betting line but the absence of Steph Curry dropped the Game Two line five points and the total 13 points. It ended up hurting the books as Golden St. covered to go along with the over, both of which are big public bets. Curry is a gametime decision tonight and the line is indicating he is going to play based on the previous lines to go along with the venue change but it probably will not happen based on the way he acted yesterday and it is in the best interest of Golden St. for the future. The Rockets cannot win this series with or without Curry but they are good enough to steal a game like they did in the Western Conference Finals last season and this is the likeliest one. Houston had a chance to steal Game Two and faltered near the end but getting back on its home floor certainly helps and it needs to remain more aggressive on offense. James Harden was much more aggressive offensively in Game Two, finishing with 28 points and 11 assists after scoring just 17 points in Game One and failed to get to the free-throw line but he made up for that in Game Two by making 13 of 15 from the line. Despite losses in the first two games, the Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (538) Houston Rockets |
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04-21-16 | Astros v. Rangers +148 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 148 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Houston is a mess right now. After winning its season opener, there have been just four wins over its last 14 games as all parts of the game are struggling. The Astros are hitting just .240 but the real issue is the pitching with a 4.81 ERA, fourth worst in all of baseball. Texas is off to a 9-6 start and leads Oakland by a game in the American League West. The Rangers go for the sweep tonight but it will have to be done against the Astros ace. The fact that Dallas Keuchel is on the hill is inflating this number immensely and while he is off to a solid start, the venue is not on his side. He has made six starts at Rangers Ballpark and is 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.56 WHIP and this includes a 7.88 ERA over his last four starts here. A.J. Griffin had two solid seasons in Oakland before injuries kept him out of the Majors for two seasons. He is back with the Rangers and has pitched well over two starts, posting a 3.27 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He won a job in the rotation thanks to a solid spring where he posted a 1.22 WHIP and 19:2 K:BB ratio. 10* (924) Texas Rangers |
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04-21-16 | Thunder v. Mavs OVER 196.5 | Top | 131-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
We had a good number in Game Two but it did not pan out but we are going at it again in Game three based on the same philosophy. This is a great example of taking advantage of line moves based on what happened in the previous game. We have flourished playing the bounce angle in the NBA playoffs in certain situations as overreaction from the last game is sometimes too much. It works with totals as well and we are seeing a big move in this one because of the result from the first two games. We are seeing a drop in this total of close to ten points from Game One based on the fact the total stayed under by 28 points in Game One and 34 points in Game Two. Both offenses have had their struggles as Dallas is shooting just 36.1 percent while Oklahoma City is hitting just 39 percent of its shots, the latter highlighted by Kevin Durant and his 26 missed shots. He no doubt will have a better game here as the Dallas defense is not as good as what may have been portrayed and neither is the Thunder defense for that matter. This is a rare number for both teams as of 168 total games, only 26 had closing totals of less than 200 so the value is tremendous. The over is 5-2 in the last seven road games for Oklahoma City against teams with a winning home record while the over is 6-2 in the last eight home games for Dallas against teams with a winning road record. 10* Over (533) Oklahoma City Thunder/(534) Dallas Mavericks |
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04-20-16 | Blazers +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 81-102 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Last night was another night of bad basketball as both games were never competitive but this is not going to go on with the exception of a couple series that seem to already be done. The first game in this series was decided by 20 points, one of 10 of the first 13 games in the postseason that has been a double-digit blowout. These two teams are definitely more evenly matched that what Game One portrayed and we should see the Blazers come through with a much bigger effort tonight. Damian Lillard led the Blazers with 21 points, while CJ McCollum was held to nine points. They combined to average 45.9 points this season, third-highest by any duo in the NBA so their lack of production was a surprise. They need to beat the traps which they have been able to do all season but were unable to handle that on Sunday. Conversely, the Clippers had three players finish with double-doubles while allowing Portland just five second chance points. Despite the win, they are just 5-13 ATS as favorites in this price range. The Blazers are 24-15 ATS following a loss this season while going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days of rest. 10* (531) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-20-16 | Hornets +5 v. Heat | Top | 103-115 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The first four days of the NBA playoffs have been anything but exciting as 10 of the first 13 games have been decided by double-digits including both games last night that were pretty much over by the first quarter. On Sunday, Charlotte went to Miami and that one was also over before it started as the Hornets lost by 32 points in a game they never led. So far this has been the most uncompetitive start to a postseason in recent memory and the public has been crushing it with the favorites and tonight, Miami is the biggest consensus by a large amount. This was a season series split with both teams stealing one game on the opposing team home floor so the blowout in Game One came as a surprise. I expect this one to be much more competitive and that starts with the Charlotte defense as it allowed 123 points while Miami averaged 1.43 points per offensive possession. On the other side, the Hornets need to shoot better which is an understatement in some regards and it is up to Kemba Walker to take control and become more efficient than he was on Sunday as he has a significant edge over Goran Dragic. The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss while the Heat are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win. 10* (527) Charlotte Hornets |
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04-20-16 | Mariners +127 v. Indians | Top | 2-1 | Win | 127 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Seattle has been all over the place this season as it followed a five-game losing streak with a three-game winning streak only to drop its last two games. The Mariners offense has been struggling after a strong start but they are catching a great number here behind a solid starter. Cleveland has won four of its last six games and both offense and pitching have been extremely inconsistent this season. Danny Salazar takes the hill and he has been a bright spot from the starting rotation as he has posted a 0.79 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in two starts which puts him in a vulnerable spot here. Going back, the Indians are 1-4 in his last five starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Taijuan Walker goes for the Mariners and he too has been solid with a 2.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in two games, both being quality. The Mariners are 7-1 in his last eight starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game while going 8-2 in his last 10 road starts. 10* (967) Seattle Mariners |
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04-20-16 | Rockies +122 v. Reds | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
Colorado and Cincinnati have both gotten off to surprisingly good starts as they head into their series finally this afternoon. The Rockies won the opener of this three-game set but lost Game Two last night behind a great effort from Reds starter Robert Stephenson who made a spot start and was send back down to Louisville after the game. Colorado hopes to continue the solid pitching as it has allowed just 12 runs in the first five games of this roadtrip and Chad Bettis has been a part of that. He tossed six shutout innings at Chicago against the Cubs while allowing just three hits which was his second straight quality start. Going back to last season, he has six quality performances over his last seven outings. The Reds counter with Raisel Iglesias who has one quality start in three games and his issue has been allowing too many hits and walks as his 1.44 WHIP over 16.2 innings is nothing to brag about. He posted a 4.15 ERA last season over 18 games including 16 starts where Cincinnati went just 5-11. 10* (951) Colorado Rockies |
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04-19-16 | Celtics +6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 72-89 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
After losing the first game of this season series, the Hawks have won the last four meetings including Game One where they won by a point after blowing a 19-point lead. Atlanta shot just 5-26 from long range and that has been an issue all season and could it even more if Boston does not dig itself into a massive hole again. This is an interesting line shift as the line has actually gone up despite the Hawks winning the first game but this is due to the loss of Celtics guard Avery Bradley who is likely to miss the remainder of the series after a hamstring injury. That is a huge blow for the Celtics as he is their second leading scorer but this is the game to back them with it being the first he is out for as this is the time that the rest of the team picks up the slack in a big way. As mentioned in the Game One analysis, this is likely to be the most competitive series in the first round and we saw that on Saturday despite the early Atlanta runaway. Boston is not a worse team by this many points and going back, the Celtics have won 19 of 34 games this season following a loss. Meanwhile, the Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (523) Boston Celtics |
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04-18-16 | Brewers +130 v. Twins | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
After a 0-9 start to the season, the Twins have won three in a row as they swept the Angels over the weekend but those three games were won just four runs total. We played on Milwaukee yesterday but unfortunately, rookie Zach Davies could not get out of the third inning but we come back with them tonight. The Brewers are 7-1 in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Acquired from the Diamondbacks in the Jean Segura deal over the winter, Chase Anderson held the Astros to just four hits while walking none and striking out five in his first outing and next time out, he again allowed just four hits in six innings at St. Louis. He has not allowed an earned run this season over 11 innings which followed a very bad spring which shows that spring training numbers can be overblown at times. The Twins counter with Phil Hughes who is winless in two starts despite tossing a pair of quality outings. His run support has been minimal as he has gotten just two runs and with the Twins hitting just .224, that can continue. Going back, the Twins are 4-11 in Hughes last 15 starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (965) Milwaukee Brewers |
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04-18-16 | Mavs v. Thunder OVER 200 | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a great example of taking advantage of line moves based on what happen in the previous game. We have flourished playing the bounce angle in the NBA playoffs in certain situations as overreaction from the last game is sometimes too much. It works with totals as well and we are seeing a big move in this one because of the result from Game One. Dallas played one of its worst game of the season and one of its worst in postseason team history as its point total (70) and field goal shooting (29.8 percent) were franchise playoff worsts while the 38-point margin of defeat was the second worst all time in a Mavericks playoff game, topped only by the 43-point loss to the Los Angeles Lakers in Game One of a 1984 second-round series. Offensively, things cannot get much worse so that is in our favor and we all know what the Thunder are capable of doing on offense. The total in Game One closed at 206 and now we are seeing a drop of six points in some places which presents extreme value. Three of four regular season meetings went over the total and all those were set at 207.5 or higher. Going back, the over is 6-2 in the Mavericks last eight games against teams with a winning straight up record while the over is 15-6 in the Thunders last 21 games playing on one day of rest. 10* Over (519) Dallas Mavericks/(520) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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