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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-22-15 | Anaheim Ducks v. Winnipeg Jets -123 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Like Ottawa, the Jets are down 3-0 in their series with Anaheim following an overtime loss on Monday. While the Senators have had a 1-0 lead in each of the three games against Montreal, Winnipeg has been even better but has nothing to show for it. The Jets have led in the first three games for more than 65 minutes to Anaheim's 11 and were arguably the better team in two of the three games so far, including the overtime defeat Monday night at MTS Centre. It is obviously do or die for Winnipeg which came into the series as a sleeper to take down Anaheim and while it has played well enough to do so, the scoreboard has proven otherwise. The Ducks have now won seven straight in this series including all six this season after taking the three games during the regular season. Even two of those had to be decided in extra time so luck has just not been on the Winnipeg side against this opponent. Only four teams in NHL history have come back from a 3-0 series deficit to win it but adversity is nothing new for the Jets, and they have no choice but to embrace the situation they have fallen into. Expect another loud environment tonight in Winnipeg as the noise was deafening at times. Despite the loss on Monday, the Jets have won 11 of their last 16 home games with four of the five losses coming by one goal in either regulation, overtime or in a shootout. 10* (72) Winnipeg Jets |
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04-22-15 | Atlanta Braves +129 v. New York Mets | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The Mets have started the season 11-3, matching the 1986 team for best start in franchise history. New York remains the Majors lone unbeaten team at home, winning its first eight contests at Citi Field, and have won nine in a row overall to take a two and a half game lead in the National League East. The Mets have been cleaning up as favorites, going 7-1 overall but now is the time to strike as we get to the back end of the rotation. Atlanta has lost four of its past six after a 6-1 start as it is the team that trails New York by 2.5-games. The pitching is obviously a concern but the value is there because of the Mets winning streak and we can usually take advantage when two bottom of the rotation starters square off. Dylan Gee gets the ball for the Mets and while we mentioned they have been cleaning up as favorites, this is the first time this season Gee has not been an underdog. As a matter of fact, he was favored just three times all of last year with New York going 1-2. He has been dreadful this season with a 7.59 ERA through two starts. The Braves counter with Eric Stults who hasn't been much better but he has at least been more consistent. This is one of his favorite opponents to pitch against as he has a 2.87 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in seven career starts. The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road underdog. 10* (907) Atlanta Braves |
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04-22-15 | Minnesota Twins +145 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 3-0 | Win | 145 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Kansas City is by far the biggest public consensus play of the night and we will take advantage of the inflated line. The Royals have won the first two games of this series and three straight overall to move into a tie with Detroit for first place in the American League Central. They got away with one last night as they scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to pull out the one run victory. Minnesota meanwhile had won four of five games before arriving in Kansas City and the road has not been kind to the Twins as they are just 1-7 though eight games on the highway. The moneyline reflects this however and tonight presents a good opportunity to grab a road win prior to the off day tomorrow. Mike Pelfrey will be making his third start of the season and after allowing four runs in his season debut, he allowed just one run against the Indians last time out. It was a step in the right direction for Pelfrey who has battled shoulder injuries the past two season but he is now healthy and his 1.32 ERA this spring shows he can be a valuable asset. Jeremy Guthrie goes for the Royals and he has struggled out of the gates by allowing four runs in each of his first two starts. The offense has bailed him out both times so he is 2-0 despite a 5.54 ERA. The Twins were a nemesis last year as he posted a 6.23 ERA against them which adds to the inflated number here. 10* (923) Minnesota Twins |
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04-22-15 | Portland Trailblazers +7 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 82-97 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Portland has picked the wrong time to match it longest losing streak of the season as it has reach five games and extending that means a 2-0 deficit in the series before heading home. The Blazers played terrible in the first game of this series as they never led, trailed by as many 29 points and were killed down low, getting outscored 52-38 in the paint. Portland has not had a lead in three straight games now as its last lead came in the fourth quarter against Utah back on April 11th. This is a much better team than what was on display Sunday and the extra day off between games helps them more than it benefits the Grizzlies. Memphis has won two in a row while covering four straight games and after closing as a 5.5-point favorite in Game One, the Grizzlies are being asked to lay a little bit more tonight but this fit perfectly into the bounce angle for this second game. Memphis has owned this series on the season, winning and covering all four regular season meetings and while I don't promote road revenge, the value is clearly on the road side desperate for a bounce back victory. The Grizzlies are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a win while going 2-7 after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Portland has won eight of 10 games this season when playing with two days rest and I look for that to continue here as an outright win if far from out of the question. 10* (729) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-22-15 | Montreal Canadiens v. Ottawa Senators -110 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
It was a difficult defeat for Ottawa on Sunday in overtime which dropped it into a 3-0 hole in this best of seven series. It was the third one goal loss for the Senators, the last two coming in overtime and while the chances of winning the series are slim, they remain confident. Four teams have come back from 3-0 deficits so it is not impossible and the fact this has been a very close series shows that Ottawa can play with the Canadiens. That was proven during the regular season as well as the Senators took three of the four meetings. Montreal has won five straight games, all by one goal with four of those coming in either overtime or in a shootout so things have certainly gone the Canadiens way. Montreal has fallen behind 1-0 after one period in all three games of the series only to turn things around and outscore Ottawa 9-4 the rest of the way so it is up to the Senators to keep the early intensity going. The Senators having their backs against the wall is no big deal as they were 14 points out of a playoff spot before going on a 23-4-4 run that earned them the first wild-card berth. Despite the Sunday loss, the Senators are 10-2 in their last 12 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game while going 15-3 in their last 18 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (66) Ottawa Senators |
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04-21-15 | Texas Rangers +131 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 7-1 | Win | 131 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
After a very good start to the season, the Rangers have taken a slight step backwards as they have dropped five of their last seven games but they can get it back to start the week with a two-game set in Arizona before playing 12 straight games within the division. The Texas offense has been a disaster as the .211 batting average is third worst in baseball which is a surprise based on the lineup and while they are facing a better offense, they are 8-0 in their last eight games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. The Diamondbacks are coming off a solid 4-3 roadtrip including taking three of four against the reeling Giants but are still 2.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. They have benefitted from good pitching and good hitting at times but they have also been on the wrong end of things as the consistency is still not there. Chase Anderson gets the call tonight and he has pitched pretty well, allowing five runs through two starts which includes a quality outing in his last performance. The problem is that he has a 1.55 WHIP and .325 BAA and that will haunt him. Nick Martinez counter for Texas and he has yet to allow an earned run this season over 14 innings. Some will call it a fluke but he closed last season by allowing two runs or less in his last six starts and he also shines early in the season by posting a 2.75 ERA in April and May. 10* (979) Texas Rangers |
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04-21-15 | Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -4.5 | Top | 117-106 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with Toronto in the opener of this series as the Raptors rallied from a 15-point deficit to force overtime only to lose by seven points as they were outscored 11-4 in the extra frame. It was an odd game where neither offense could get any consistency going, long range shooting was dismal on both sides and there were very few free throws throughout. I expect the Raptors to hold serve on their home floor and while the home court advantage in the series is lost for now, they at least will not be completely out of the series before hitting the road to Washington. The Wizards captured a rare quality road win and they have not been great in these spots. As mentioned prior to Saturday, going back to late-January when they went to Portland, the Wizards have played 23 road games, 11 of which were against current playoff teams. Washington is 2-9 in those games and while some were close, the average loss in those nine games was 12.2 ppg. Overall, they are six games under .500 on the highway. This plays right into the bounce angle playoff theory and while the Bucks came up a point short and Golden St. came up three points short last night, those were based on Game One cover losses and this is based on an outright defeat. Look for the Raptors to take control tonight and even up this series. 10* (724) Toronto Raptors |
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04-21-15 | Atlanta Braves +137 v. New York Mets | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
The Mets have won eight straight games but it has come with a price as their offense has taken two big hits over the last week. It is an offense that is average to begin with so the loss of David Wright and Travis d'Arnaud is not going to help matters. New York was fortunate on Sunday as it nearly blew a 7-1 lead against Miami to make it eight in a row but now this overachieving team is paying the price for the success and that price is namely the moneyline. The Braves are just a game and a half behind New York in the National League East following a series win in Toronto and while they too are probably overachieving somewhat, this is the biggest underdog number they have seen against the Mets since 2010 and that at the time was just +128. Trevor Cahill looks to bounce back from a horrendous start in Atlanta where he allowed four runs on five hits and three walks in just 2.1 innings against the Marlins. He is better than that as he has proved in the past and while his 2014 season in Arizona was disappointing, this is the spot to turn it around. Jon Niese gets the call for the Mets and he has been solid by allowing just one earned run in his first two starts. This is not the team or the situation for it to continue though a the Mets are 0-4 in his last four home starts against teams with a winning record and 0-4 in his last four home starts against the Braves. 10* (957) Atlanta Braves |
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04-20-15 | Houston Astros +156 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 7-5 | Win | 156 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Some may be surprised by the start for the Astros as they are 6-6 and they have not been .500 or better this late in a season since starting 12-12 back in 2008. Additionally, This is the latest they've led a division since they were atop the National League Central with a 15-9 record in 2007. This is still a very young team but a talented one as well and Houston is not going to back down from anyone. The Mariners have won two straight games but are still two games under .500 and they have been underachieving since the season began. While the winning streak can provide momentum, I think the expectations outweigh the performance so far and we are getting a great line in going against them because of it. Asher Wojciechowski takes the ball for the Astros and while he struggled in his first start by allowing four runs in four innings against the Indians, he came back with a solid effort after that. He allowed just two hits and no runs in four innings of long relief against the A's last week. Look for him to carry that over into tonight. Seattle turns to Hisashi Iwakuma who is trending the wrong way following a sensational 2013 season. He was decent last season but in five starts against the Astros, he was 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA. He has gotten off to a horrible start this season, posting a 6.55 ERA behind two non-quality starts. I don't see any reason for the bad start not to continue. 10* (917) Houston Astros |
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04-20-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +8 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 82-91 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
We lost with the Bucks on Saturday night in Chicago but we are coming back with them here for pretty much the same reasoning as then. . The Bucks aren't going to be on many people's radars in the Eastern Conference that will likely come down to Cleveland and Atlanta but this team is capable of putting a scare into some. Milwaukee has the traits that can make them dangerous come playoff time as it is fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and led the league in forcing turnovers. The difference in Game One was from long range as Milwaukee managed to go just 4-16 from behind the arc while Chicago nailed 12 three-pointers. The defense just wasn't in tune with the exception of the fourth quarter but I expect a much better effort tonight overall. Chicago has won five in a row which sets up a good contrarian play against and going back, the Bulls are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following an ATS win. Meanwhile, the Bucks have covered four of their last five games following a double-digit loss and on the season, they are 27-15 ATS following a defeat of any kind. Additionally, Chicago is just 6-15 ATS this season as a favorite of eight or more points and while an outright Milwaukee win is not out of the question, we will grab the points again in what will be a much more competitive game than we saw on Saturday. 10* (717) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-20-15 | New York Yankees +132 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The Tigers are coming off their fourth straight series victory to open the season as they improved to 10-2 following a blowout win over Chicago yesterday. They are in first place in the American League Central by a game over Kansas City and while they are clearly one of the top teams in the league, I think they are getting a little too much respect here. A slow start by the Yankees was reversed over the weekend with a three-game sweep over Tampa Bay. They are now sitting right at .500 on the season and while it will likely be a challenging year, the number is right tonight. C.C. Sabathia gets the call and while her is far from the same pitcher he was a few years ago, he is still very capable. His 5.68 ERA doesn't look very good but his first two starts weren't horrible as he allowed four runs each time out. Going back, the Yankees are 36-16 in Sabathia's last 52 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Tigers counter with Alfredo Simon who is making his home debut with Detroit. He is coming off an excellent year in Cincinnati last season and is off an eight-inning, two-hit performance against the Pirates in his last start which makes this is a good time to go against him. In four career starts against the Yankees, Simon is 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA and with the New York bats heating up, he could be in for another rough outing. 10* (909) New York Yankees |
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04-19-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -1 | Top | 92-107 | Win | 100 | 38 h 35 m | Show |
The Spurs loss in the last game of the regular season against New Orleans was the most costly defeat on that last day of any other team making the postseason as it dropped them from the No. 2 seed all the way down to the No. 6 seed. There is only a one game separation between those seedings so while the matchups are even, having the home court advantage is enormous, especially for the Clippers in this matchup. These teams have not met since February and both teams have changed quite a bit since then with Los Angeles riding some serious momentum. The Clippers have won seven straight games as well as 14 of their last 15 with the only loss coming against overall No. 1 seed Golden St. by just four points so they come in as the hottest team in the league. San Antonio had that claim until Wednesday as it was riding an 11-game winning streak prior to losing against the Pelicans and it was also on a 14-1 run going back further. With similar streaks from both sides, we would expect the number to be a pickem on a neutral floor which would make the Clippers about a four-point favorite at home but we are not seeing that here so not only are we riding the Clippers momentum but we are riding the great home value. They haven't covered at home in five straight games but looking at the lines will tell you why. The Spurs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (716) Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-19-15 | Colorado Rockies +157 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
The Dodgers are catching fire and have taken over the lead in the National League West thanks to six straight wins. This includes the first two games of this series behind top of the rotation starters Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke but now it comes in as another big favorite behind a starter not even close to that duo in class. The Rockies got off to a great start this season as they won seven of their first nine games and I expect the offense to get rolling again today. They are hitting .286 against right-handed pitching and square off against Brandon McCarthy who can hold his own but is not worth this price. The Dodgers offense bailed him out in his first start where he allowed five runs in seven innings against the Mariners and that was as a -118 favorite, the second time in two games that was the closing number. He has a 6.75 ERA in his two starts, both of which have been non-quality and his work against Colorado has been dismal at best as he has a 6.75 ERA in four career starts. Eddie Butler looks to stop the bleeding for the Rockies and he has been solid with a 1.64 ERA through two starts. He has not posted a quality outing as he hasn't gone deep into games but with a Rockies bullpen that has a 2.35 ERA, going deep is not necessary. We will go with the huge value play here with Colorado avoiding the weekend sweep. 10* (961) Colorado Rockies |
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04-19-15 | Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11 | Top | 100-113 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
The hottest team entering the playoffs in the Eastern Conference isn't one of the top teams but it is No. 7 seed Boston, winning of six straight games to make it into the playoffs. The Celtics run looks impressive with five of those wins coming against playoff teams but it is definitely skewed with two of those coming against a Cleveland team not at full strength including one game where all starters sat and then another game against Milwaukee where benches were emptied after playoff seeding were determined from other games being played. Now comes the second season and while it was a great story, Boston does not have the talent or the physicality to match up here in the postseason with the Cavaliers. Cleveland will be out to make a statement in this opener as it not only want to avenge the two late season losses against the Celtics but also wants to send a message to the rest of the conference in this Sunday opener. The Cavaliers started slow due to the chemistry not being there but they finished the season with the best record in the league since mid-January, going 34-9 over their last 43 games. Only 12 of those wins were by single digits and they all came by an average of 14.3 ppg. This is a big number to be laying against a team that has won six straight games but I think it will prove to not be enough. 10* (710) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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04-19-15 | Miami Marlins +176 v. New York Mets | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
Miami and New York are playing the complete opposite of each other right now and with the pitching matchup this afternoon, many are expecting those runs to continue. I'm not one of those however as I think the teams are closer in terms of matchup than what this line is telling us and the starting pitching is not that much of a differential. The Marlins have lost three straight games and six of eight to fall to 3-9 on the season and they will look to salvage one game of this series before heading to Philadelphia. The Mets meanwhile have won seven straight games including six straight at home, their best home start since 1985. The name Matt Harvey will strike the fear in a lot of people if asking to play against him and while he is off to a solid start, he is beatable like anyone else. He allowed two home runs against the Phillies in his last start which did most of the damage where he allowed three runs in six innings, He has never defeated Miami with the Mets going 0-4 in four attempts. The Marlins counter with Tom Koehler who is a very underrated pitcher. He posted a 3.81 ERA last season and is off to a good start this year with a 3.18 ERA and two outs away from two quality starts. In 12 games against the Mets covering 64 innings, he has a 2.67 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. 10* (951) Miami Marlins |
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04-18-15 | Oakland A's +128 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 128 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Kansas City opened the season 7-0 before losing its final two games in Minnesota but it was able to bounce back at home last night with a 6-4 victory last night in the opener of this three-game set. The Royals remain perfect at home with a 4-0 record and that is playing in our favor here as they are laying a big number tonight after actually closing as the underdog last night. Some of tonight's moneyline is based upon the A's quiet start at 5-6 and they are still looking to get some revenge following the Wild Card playoff loss here last season where they blew a 7-3 lead. Another reason for the high line is the solid start to the season from Yordano Ventura. He is 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through his first two starts and going back to last season, the Royals are 9-0 in his last nine starts and that is a streak I love going against. Oakland counters with Jesse Hahn who has looked pretty solid in his first two starts with the teams. He is coming off a weird start where he allowed just three hits but gave up four runs although only one was earned and he was an out away from his second quality start. He posted a 3.07 ERA last season while with the Padres and his WHIP and BAA are actually better on the road in his career. This is his first start against the Royals which is a big edge. 10* (923) Oakland A's |
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04-18-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 91-103 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 28 m | Show |
One team that others need to be weary of in the postseason is Milwaukee. The Bucks aren't going to be on many people's radars in the Eastern Conference that will likely come down to Cleveland and Atlanta but this team is capable of putting a scare into some. Milwaukee has the traits that can make them dangerous come playoff time as it is fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and led the league in forcing turnovers. Not many saw this coming after the Bucks finished with the worst record in the NBA last season but the personnel changes along with the hiring of head coach Jason Kidd did wonders. Chicago won its final four games of the regular season to hold off Toronto for the third seed in the Eastern Conference and with the return of Derrick Rose, some are picking the Bulls as a sleeper team to make a run at the NBA Finals. I' not one of them. While talent is there, injuries have really hurt the Bulls and not just because of missed games but because of continuity. The preferred starting five of Mike Dunleavy, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah has made just 21 appearances together. The Bucks have the length and grit to rein in Gasol and Noah as well as the lateral quickness to contend with Butler and Rose on the perimeter. This is a vital game for both sides but I think the Bulls are getting a little too much credit with this line and Milwaukee keeps it closer than most expect. 10* (705) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-18-15 | Baltimore Orioles +128 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 128 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
The Orioles lost a tough one yesterday in walk-off fashion as Boston rallied from a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2. The Red Sox are atop the American League East with a 7-3 record which comes as a surprise considering they are hitting just .246 as a team while posting a 4.50 ERA. The damage there is done by the starting pitching which has a dreadful 5.86 ERA and Clay Buchholz is part of the blame for sure. After opening the season with a gem at Philadelphia, he was lit up for 10 runs on nine hits in just 3.1 innings against the Yankees last weekend. This is his home debut but that is not necessarily a good thing as he posted a 6.64 ERA in 14 home starts last year with Boston going just 3-11 in those games. At this point, he cannot be trusted and he is once again overvalued at home against a quality lineup that tagged him for six runs in 2.1 innings almost a year ago to the day right here in his only start against the Orioles last season. Baltimore is now 5-5 and they turn to Chris Tillman who was also lit up big time in his last start at home against Toronto. But the difference here is that Tillman rarely puts up poor back-to-back starts and he has had great success against Boston, posting a 2.69 ERA in 16 career starts. Additionally, the Orioles are 23-5 in Tillman's last 28 starts following a team loss in their previous game. 10* (919) Baltimore Orioles |
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04-18-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +178 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 178 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
The Phillies got off to a 3-2 start but they have dropped six straight games following another loss to Washington last night. One look at the opposing starting pitchers will tell you exactly why they have been struggling with the bats as there has not been one weak link they have faced and while today doesn't seem to be any better based on name, on paper I think Philadelphia can have some success. Washington has won three in a row after an awful start to the season and it once again comes in as a big favorite behind Jordan Zimmerman who is kind of the lost name in this highly touted rotation. He was again solid last season and after a great start to open 2015, he was knocked around pretty hard against the Red Sox in his last outing, allowing eight runs, seven earned, on nine hits in just 2.1 innings. While many see a bounceback, that one will be tough to lose memory of. The Phillies counter with Aaron Harang who has been spot on in his first two starts, posting a 0.73 ERA and 0.73 WHIP, both of which were quality outings. Facing Washington is no issue as Harang has a 2.17 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Nationals. This included four starts last season where he posted a 1.33 ERA, all of which were quality, and he has a career 1.57 ERA in four starts at Nationals Park. 10* (901) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-18-15 | Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -4 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
A year of expereience can go a long way for Toronto. The Raptors came into the postseason last year as a very inexperienced team, lost a late lead in Game One allowing Paul Pierce and the Nets steal that one and then eventually lose the series in seven games. Look for a very focused effort Saturday afternoon as grabbing the first game is at the forefront to avoid a repeat of last season. Speaking of Pierce, he has been running his mouth and has given Toronto additional motivation and on Wednesday night after the Raptors beat the Hornets, DeMar DeRozan told Toronto reporters that Pierce might not want to see the Raptors in the playoffs before the matchups were made official later that night. Washington dropped a pair of overtime games on the road to close out the regular season and fall to 17-24 on the highway. Two of those losses came at the Air Canada Centre where Toronto has covered seven of the last 10 meetings. It gets even worse than that though as going back to late-January went they went to Portland, the Wizards have played 22 road games, 10 of which were against current playoff teams. Washington went 1-9 in those games and while some were close, the average loss in those nine games was 12.2 ppg. The Wizards are a dreadful 3-23-2 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while going 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days rest. 10* (702) Toronto Raptors |
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04-16-15 | Milwaukee Brewers +138 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Milwaukee is looking for its first series win of the season after getting swept by Colorado and then losing two of three against the Pirates. The Brewers opened this series with a win but followed that up with a loss last night but the good thing is that Milwaukee has followed up its last two losses with victories which is what I expect again this afternoon. The Brewers starting pitching has been the weak spot with a 5.68 ERA through eight games and while tonight's starter is part of the issues, that changes. St. Louis is 4-3 and has been rather unimpressive as well although the pitching has been the opposite of the Brewers and that has kept the Cardinals around. They have won consecutive games only once this season and at this point, despite the differential in records, they should not be big favorites with this pitching matchup. John Lackey pitched ok against the Reds in his season opener but allowed four runs in six innings as two home runs were the big problem. He was extremely solid at home last season and St. Louis cleaned up winning 12 of his 16 home starts and that is being reflected in this number. The real surprise was Mike Fiers getting knocked around by the Pirates, allowing five runs on seven hits in just five innings. It was a surprise because he did not allow more than three runs in any of his 10 starts last season where he posted a 2.13 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 71.2 innings. In four starts and two relief appearances against the Cardinals, Fiers has a 1.30 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with all four starts being quality outings. 10* (901) Milwaukee Brewers |
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04-15-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
All but two teams are in action tonight and with 14 games going on, there would seem to be a lot of opportunities out there but there actually aren't. Numerous teams will be resting starters, teams that need to win that are playing non-playoff teams have seen their lines skyrocket and then there are the non-payoff matchups where anything can happen. We are playing on a game that is meaningful for both sides and we are getting great value on the home team based on recent runs. Memphis has lost two straight and Indiana has won seven straight and we are getting a short price because of it. Memphis can now only be the five or six seed in the Western Conference. If the Spurs and Rockets win it doesn't matter what the Grizzlies do, they are the sixth seed. The Grizzlies can climb to the five seed if they beat Indiana while Houston loses to the Jazz. If the Rockets and Grizzlies win but the Spurs lose then Memphis climbs to the five seed also. The good thing is that all of these teams play at the same time so they won't know their fate until their game is completed. Being No. 5 or No. 6 doesn't seem like a huge difference but in fact it is. The No. 5 seed gets to host Portland in the first round even though the Blazers are the higher seed so this is a huge game for the Grizzlies. This is big for the Pacers to make it into the playoffs but coming off that game last night will be tough as they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. 10* (522) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-15-15 | Ottawa Senators v. Montreal Canadiens UNDER 5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Ottawa was the hottest team in the NHL over the last two months of the season as the Senators went 21-6 over their last 27 games to secure a come-from-behind playoff spot. A big reason for that was the play of goalie Andrew Hammons who was sensational as he posted a 1.79 GAA, a .941 save percentage and a 20-1-2 record including 10-0-2 on the road with three shutouts. On the other side, Canadiens goalie Carey Price led the NHL or shared the lead in each of the four major categories: wins, goals-against average and save percentage. He put up those numbers despite facing a steady barrage of shots and playing on a team with below-average possession metrics, one that had a tendency to get pinned in its defensive zone. He led the NHL in goals-against average (1.96), save percentage (.933) and wins, setting a new Canadiens record with 44 victories. The penalty kill and power play matchup also favors not many scoring chances as both teams struggled on the power play, Ottawa ranking 22nd overall at 16.8 percent and Montreal finishing 23rd at 16.5 percent. On the penalty kill, the Canadiens were seventh overall (83.7 percent) and the Senators finishing 11th at 82.9 percent. With this being the first game of this series, it is a feel out type of game with teams not taking many chances early on. 10* Under (1) Ottawa Senators/(2) Montreal Canadiens |
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04-15-15 | Washington Nationals +111 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 10-5 | Win | 111 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
This is an excellent opportunity for Washington to bounce back after a horrible start to the season. The Nationals were the unanimous pick to win the National League East but they are currently in last place with a 2-6 record and while it is early and the season will turn around, so there is no need for panic. The offense has picked things up after a cold start but now the pitching has gone south which I feel rebounds today. Boston is in the lead in the American League East after winning the first two games of this series. The offense is leading the way but I like the consistency of Gio Gonzalez. He is coming off a quality outings in his first start this season and going back to last year, he has allowed three runs or less in 11 consecutive starts. The Nationals are 6-0 in Gonzalez' last six starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Boston gives the ball to Wade Miley who is coming off an decent effort in his Red Sox debut as he allowed two runs on four hits against the Yankees but only went 5.1 innings. After a couple good seasons in Arizona, he regressed last year and there is not much of an upside especially in this ballpark. The Nationals are 16-7 in their last 23 Interleague games against left-handed starters. 10* (975) Washington Nationals |
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04-14-15 | Toronto Raptors +2.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
With Chicago winning last night, Toronto is now a half-game behind the Bulls for third place in the Eastern Conference. The difference between third and fourth place is who the possible second round playoff opponent will be, either Atlanta or Cleveland, so there really is not a lot to win or lose either way. On top of the seedings ramifications with this game, this is a pretty big game for Toronto as a victory here gives the Raptors the most regular season wins in franchise history. The Celtics clinched a playoff spot last night even though it was idle as the Nets loss gave them the spot thanks to tiebreakers scenarios. Boston can still finish seventh or eighth which means a tossup between playing Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round. The Celtics are the second hottest team in the Eastern Conference following a pair of wins over Cleveland but they were fortunate to catch the Cavaliers resting starters in the second matchup. The Raptors, who are trying to complete a 4-0 roadtrip for the first time in franchise history, have won six of their last eight games but one of those defeats came at home to the Celtics so they will be out for some payback. The road team has covered four of the last five games in this series and that run continues tonight. 10* (701) Toronto Raptors |
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04-13-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Brooklyn Nets +1.5 | Top | 113-86 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Despite a big NBA card Monday, they are not many good spots on the board as this is the time of year which makes it hard to get a read on some teams and what their plans are if they haven't been made public. One we do not have to worry about is with Brooklyn as it is still fighting for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. This line was delayed in coming out in most spots for no apparent reason. The Nets are tied with Indiana for the eighth slot, one game behind Boston and while the term must win is thrown around a lot in these situations, it fits tonight. Brooklyn controls its own destiny as if it wins out, it gets into the playoffs as it holds the tiebreaker over the Pacers which close the season against Washington and Memphis so it is not an easy finish. The Nets close the season Wednesday at home against Orlando so they definitely have the better road. They have been playing well as they have won eight of their last 11 games and 12 of their last 17 to make a move up in the standings and going back, they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Chicago has won two straight games but it is looking for consecutive road wins for the first time since Feb. 7-8. Since then, the Bulls are 3-9 in their last 12 road games and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (512) Brooklyn Nets |
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04-13-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Minnesota Twins +123 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
After Kansas City missed out on a World Series Championship by just one game and one run, the Royals look to be poised by making another run. They are off to a perfect 6-0 start which has them in a tie with the Tigers for first place in the American League Central. The offense has been the catalyst as they are batting .327 and off to their best start since beginning the 2003 season 9-0. The Twins have not been a fortunate as they are 1-5 on the season after getting swept in Detroit and losing two of three in Chicago. This is the home opener for Minnesota and a big deal for hometown boy and first year manager Paul Molitor. Trevor May was recalled from Rochester and is replacing Ricky Nolasco in the rotation after the right-hander landed on the 15-day disabled list with elbow inflammation. May did not have a very good season a year ago in limited action with the Twins but he is coming off a decent spring and pitching the home opener is pretty special. The Royals counter with Danny Duffy who did not look good in his start. The left-hander allowed five runs and eight hits in five-plus innings of Wednesday's 7-5 home win over the White Sox before leaving without a decision as the offense bailed him out. Excellent home underdog price this afternoon. 10* (964) Minnesota Twins |
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04-13-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Pittsburgh Pirates +101 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 101 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
The Pirates are home for the first time this season after a pretty uneven roadtrip the first week. They were swept in Cincinnati to start the week but did bounce back with a series win in Milwaukee over the weekend. Their 51-30 record at home last season was tied for the best in the National League and second best in baseball and going back further, the Pirates are 42-18 in their last 60 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Detroit meanwhile is off to a 6-0 start following sweeps of Minnesota at home and Cleveland on the road. The offense has been crushing it as the Tigers .355 average and 47 runs scored are the best in the Majors. They will have a tough time today though as Pittsburgh sends Gerrit Cole to the mound. He is coming off a non-quality outing in his season opener but it was far from horrible as he allowed three runs in five innings. Going back to last season, he has allowed three runs or less in six straight starts and nine of his last 10. He was 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 11 home starts last season and the Pirates have won 13 of his last 16 home outings. Anibal Sanchez was very sharp in his first start of the season, tossing 6.2 shutout innings against he Twins. I don't expect a repeat of that however as he struggles with consistency, following up his last four quality starts with non-quality outings. 10* (974) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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04-12-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Houston Rockets -4.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
With the home-and-home loss to San Antonio, the Rockets are now a half-game behind Memphis and San Antonio which has dropped them all the way down to sixth place in the Western Conference. They have three games left, all of which are winnable and they have the easier road in the regular season than their divisional counterparts despite them having only two games left. Houston lost a tough one at home last time out which was only its 11th home loss of the season and it has backed up the last six home losses with a win next time out. This is no doubt a big game for New Orleans as well as it is tied for Oklahoma City for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Pelicans won at home against Phoenix on Friday but their road issues are the reason that they are still fighting for the postseason as they are 16-23 away from home and going back, they have dropped six straight road games against Western Conference teams currently locked into a playoff spot. This is a team poised for a solid future but still isn't there and it is catching Houston at the wrong time which is a perfect 5-0 this season coming off consecutive losses, winning those games by an average of 13.6 ppg. 10* (714) Houston Rockets |
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04-12-15 | San Francisco Giants +117 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The Giants got pounded last night 10-2 by the Padres as Madison Bumgarner put up his worst start since last July when he allowed five runs against the Pirates. That was the second straight loss for San Francisco following a 3-1 start and the offense has been pretty impotent, scoring just three runs over its last three games in San Diego after piling up 16 runs in three games in Arizona. Look for the offense to bust out today against the Padres which have been fortunate to allow just those three runs after giving up 16 runs against the Dodgers in their first three games to open the season. The last time we saw Jake Peavy, he was getting rocked in Game Six of the World Series against the Royals as he is finally making his 2015 debut. He had some back discomfort in spring training but came out of it ok as he threw a bullpen session on Wednesday. He came over to the Giants from Boston last season and he was an integral part of the rotation as he posted a 2.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 12 starts prior to what many considered a postseason meltdown. Last season, the Giants went 6-0 in Peavy's last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Tyson Ross pitched well in his season debut as he outdueled Zack Greinke but going back to last season, the Padres are 2-7 in his last nine starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (913) San Francisco Giants |
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04-11-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +8.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 86-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
There is a lot on the line tonight in Los Angeles as one game separates second and sixth place in the Western Conference and both of these teams are right in the mix. Memphis is coming a pretty unimpressive win last night in Utah but a win is a win and coupled with the Rockets loss against San Antonio, the Grizzlies regained the lead in the Southwest Division where three teams are within a game of each other. Memphis has won four of five games following a three-game losing streak and with a game at Golden St. on deck, this one is suddenly pretty huge to keep a hold on second place in the Western Conference. The Clippers are in fifth place but a win here can put them into a tie for second place so while the motivation is on their side as well, they are being asked to lay a bigger than expected number against a quality team. Los Angeles 28-11 at home which is only four games better than the Grizzlies record on the road and while it has won 27 of 37 games as a home favorite, it has covered just 15 of those games. Memphis has already won once here this season and it surely has not forgotten the last meeting in Memphis where the Clippers won by 18 points. The Grizzlies are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Clippers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (507) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-11-15 | Seattle Mariners +138 v. Oakland A's | Top | 5-4 | Win | 138 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Seattle is coming off a 12-0 bludgeoning last night in Oakland but I expect the Mariners to bounce back this afternoon. Seattle opened the season with a win over the Angels behind Felix Hernandez but they have dropped three straight games since then as the offense has managed a total of three runs during the skid including getting shutout twice. Oakland is off to a 3-2 start as it has alternated wins and losses to begin the season. The three wins have all been shutouts and none of them have been close as they have won those games by a combined score of 30-0 and today's starter has had something to do with that. Sonny Gray was sensational in his season debut as he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and finished his start by allowing just one hit over eight innings. While he is clearly the ace of the staff, I expect him to regress in this spot and I do not see the offense being nearly as productive behind him. The Mariners counter with J.A. Happ who had a rough spring but did pitch well in his last outing and he gets a good matchup here. Reason being is that the A's typically struggle against southpaws as they were just 24-25 against left-handed starters last season while going 64-49 against right-handers. Happ has faced Oakland twice in his career over the last two years and has a 0.64 ERA in those games. The A's are 0-8 in their last eight home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the Mariners are 19-7 in their last 26 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (969) Seattle Mariners |
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04-10-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Utah Jazz OVER 178.5 | Top | 89-88 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This total continues to drop with a reason due to the fact that Memphis has stayed under the total in six straight games. The last game against New Orleans stayed below the total by just a half point as the defense once again came to the forefront by holding the Pelicans to 74 points on 35 percent shooting. It was the fourth straight games that the Grizzlies have held their opponent to 92 points or less but the challenge will be more difficult tonight. Utah has won two straight games with the offense putting up 101 and 103 points and while those games were both against Sacramento, the Jazz have been shooting the ball very well over the short-term. This number has dipped to the point of it being a very rare low number as this is just the second time this season Utah has had a total of less than 180 points and this is the first time it has occurred in a game for Memphis. The over is 4-1 in the Grizzlies last five road games while the over is 7-3 in Utah's last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. Look for a higher scoring game than anticipated tonight. 10* Over (721) Memphis Grizzlies/(722) Utah Jazz |
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04-10-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets +3 | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
The Rockets get a chance for some quick revenge as they look to remain in the top half of the Southwest Division. This is the tightest division in the league right now as the top three teams are separated by just a half-game and as far as playoff seedings, those three spots can finish anywhere from No. 2 all the way down to No. 6 which shows how tight the conference is as a whole. San Antonio has made it very interesting with wins in nine straight games including a win over Houston on Wednesday by 12 points. In addition to those nine straight up wins, the Spurs have been able to cover every one of those games as well which is giving us great value tonight. They were favored by 6.5 points at home two days ago which should make them an underdog here based on venue change but instead they are favored by over a bucket. Houston is 28-10 at home this season including a 19-5 record over its last 24 home games. Three of the final four games of the season are here with the line roadie being at Charlotte. The Rockets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (718) Houston Rockets |
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04-10-15 | New York Mets v. Atlanta Braves +109 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 109 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The Braves head home following their season opening three-game sweep at Miami which definitely came as a surprise to many. Atlanta is in a rebuilding year and it is not hiding that fact but the winning remains contagious early on. Pitching has led the way as the Braves have a 1.00 ERA as they have allowed just three runs in three games and there isn't much reason to think that will subside tonight. The Mets are also coming off a surprising opening series as they took two of three at Washington and they are a shocking road favorite here. I say shocking because they were road favorites only four times all of last season. They send Jon Niese to the hill who is a dependable starter as he posted a 3.40 ERA last season over 30 starts but he was just 9-11 and he has struggles in this venue, positing a 4.96 ERA in six starts. The Mets are 5-16 in his last 21 starts against teams with a winning record. Eric Stults counters for the Braves and while he isn't going to overpower anyone, he is dependable. Stults had a 3.40 ERA after the All-Star break last season after changing the tempo of his delivery and that carries over into a solid spring. He has faced the Mets three times in the last three years, posting a 1.62 ERA. 10* (908) Atlanta Braves |
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04-10-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Detroit Pistons +5 | Top | 107-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
The Pacers remain in the playoff mix in the Eastern Conference and because of that, they are seeing their lines get inflated as we head into the stretch run of the season. Indiana has won and covered three straight games to move a game back from seventh and eighth place in the conference but the schedule is not on their side. Their final three games are against teams either fighting for playoff spots or working on seedings and two of those against the Western Conference. Two of the three recent wins were at home and the only road win was at New York and going back, Indiana is just 3-6 in its last nine road games with two of those coming against the Knicks. Detroit has nothing to play for expect to be a spoiler at this point and this is one team the Pistons would love to knock out of the postseason. They are a healthy home underdog here and in comparison, they were getting a points and a half against Boston last time out and are now getting at least three points more against a team that has a worse record than the Celtics. Detroit is 5-1 in its last six home games and going back, it is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS loss. 10* (704) Detroit Pistons |
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04-09-15 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -9.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Golden St. closed out its road portion of the regular season not the way it had hoped to as it dropped its final two games at San Antonio and at New Orleans. It is just the fourth time this season that Golden St. has lost consecutive games and in the previous three instances, it avoided a three-game losing streak. The Warriors play their final four games at home where they are a league-best 35-2 including wins in 14 straight. A win by the Warriors Thursday would assure Golden St. finishes with the best record in the NBA for the first time since 1975-76 and would give it home court advantage in the NBA Finals. Portland rolled over Minnesota last night and is currently 1.5 games back of the Clippers and Spurs in the race for home-court advantage in the playoffs so this is obviously a big game but a horrible spot to be put in. The Blazers are 4-6 on the road this season against the Western Conference's top eight teams. The Warriors are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Blazers are 4-14 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Golden St. 10* (504) Golden St. Warriors |
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04-09-15 | Chicago Bulls +1.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 89-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
We won with Miami in its last game as it snapped a four-game losing streak and kept it just a game back for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Heat could be in the drivers seat with their remaining schedule which includes three home games and the lone road game being at lowly Philadelphia. But the first two home games are not easy with Chicago tonight and Toronto on Saturday both of which are still fighting for seeding in the conference. Overall the Heat are eight games under .500 and are just 19-19 at home so there is not an edge here at all. The Bulls lost last night in Orlando which was their second straight loss and they are now just a game ahead of Washington for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference so this is now a very big game. The return of Derrick Rose last night didn't do a whole lot as he managed just nine points and two assists in 19 minutes while committing four turnovers. Defense will have to step up tonight and should not be a problem as the Heat have shot 18.2 percent from three-point range in the past three games. The Bulls are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. 10* (501) Chicago Bulls |
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04-08-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 184.5 | Top | 74-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This total came out late due to the uncertain status of Zach Randolph for the Grizzlies. Whether he plays or not, while it will certainly effect Memphis as a whole, it will not be a big factor in the total as his offense and defense would be a wash. New Orleans is coming off a win last night against Golden St. and coupled with the Oklahoma City loss, the Pelicans moved into eighth place in the Western Conference. They held Golden St. to 100 points which was just the third time in the last 23 games that the Warriors have been held to 100 or fewer points so that was an impressive defensive performance last night. They have picked up the defense of late but overall, they are still allowing 45.5 percent shooting and that jumps even higher on the road. New Orleans has gone under in three straight games and the low total is reflecting that. The Pelicans have not seen an over/under of less than 190 in 13 games. Memphis has gone under in five straight games and it has been a mix of offense and defense along the way. The Grizzlies have been off since Saturday and going back, they are 13-6 to the over in their last 19 games playing on three or more days rest. Meanwhile, the over is 5-2 in the Pelicans last seven games following an ATS win. 10* Over (715) New Orleans Pelicans/(716) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-08-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets -5.5 | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is another late release and while it was due to the Hawks Paul Millsap, who was already out so the delay in the line makes no sense, there are more issues for the Hawks. There was a stabbing last night in New York that involved the Pacers Chris Copeland but Hawks players Pero Antic and Thabo Sefolosha were also on hand and booked for trying to prevent police from setting up a crime scene. Whether they play tonight is still unknown but hearing things like this can really hurt a team. Atlanta blew away Phoenix at home last night but traveled to New York after the game which in hindsight was a bad idea. Atlanta set a franchise record for wins last night so that could provide a letdown for tonight. It was the second straight win for the Hawks and the first victory is what is keying this play for Brooklyn. The Nets were the victims of that win as they were blown out by 32 points in Atlanta on Saturday night, the third double-digit loss against Atlanta this season. Besides that though, the Nets have been playing well as they have won seven of their last eight games and 11 of their last 14 to move into seventh place in the Eastern Conference. This includes five straight home wins which is big after a horrendous start at home. The Nets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (710) Brooklyn Nets |
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04-07-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 205.5 | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The Lakers and Clippers just met on Sunday and it resulted in a Clippers blowout victory by 28 points. The fourth and final meeting takes place tonight and while the Lakers will be out to avoid a four-game season series sweep, their defense cannot be trusted to think about victory and even coming within this big number. We are concentrating on the total here and based on that recent game, we are getting a great deal of value as this over/under is currently five points less than what it was just two nights ago. While the Lakers offense has stumbled of late, we can bank on the defense not showing any resistance as the stop unit has allowed 106.7 ppg on the road this season and 108.8 ppg over their last five games. I do expect the offense to improve as well as scoring fewer than 80 points in three straight games is a rarity in this league. The Clippers offense is perforating on a very high level right now as they have averaged 113 ppg over their last 10 games and don't expect it to slow down here. Both teams have stayed under in two straight games which both came after some runs on the over. The over is 6-2 in the Clippers last eight games following a double-digit win while the over is 9-3-1 in the Lakers last 13 games against the NBA Pacific. 10* Over (661) Los Angeles Lakers/(662)/Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-07-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder +7 | Top | 113-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Oklahoma City has lost three straight games and is just a half-game ahead of New Orleans for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Going back, the Thunder have dropped five of their last six games but they have been fortunate that the Pelicans have not been able to gain more ground. Three of their final five games are at home where they are 27-11 on the season despite the recent loss against Houston on Sunday and against Dallas prior to that. While playoff motivation is typically good enough, Oklahoma city has not forgotten the 39-point loss suffered in San Antonio less than two weeks ago. The Spurs have won seven straight games and snapped the Warriors 12-game winning streak on Sunday at home and they were out to prove something, expending their home winning streak against Golden St. to 32 games and showing the championship still runs through San Antonio. The Spurs are two games behind Houston in the Southwest Division which comes with homecourt in the first round of the playoffs and with a back-to-back set against the Rockets on deck, the lookahead is there. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while going 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Oklahoma City. 10* (656) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-07-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Miami Heat -3.5 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
It is a four-team race between Boston, Indiana, Miami and Charlotte for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and two of those teams square off tonight. Miami is tied with Indiana at one game back and a win over Charlotte tonight puts the Hornets in a tough spot and likely out of the race. While the Heat are not in the lead, they are in the drivers seat in my opinion as they have by far the easiest remaining schedule as they have four straight home games starting tonight and while two of those arte against Chicago and Toronto the home finale is against Orlando and the lone road game is at Philadelphia. They have to take care of business tonight. Charlotte is coming off a win last time out against Philadelphia which was far from impressive and it has struggled on the road of late, going 1-6 in its last seven games on the highway with the lone victory coming at 16-60 Minnesota. Overall, they are nine games under .500 on the road and the absence of center al Jefferson is a big loss for tonight. Going back, Hornets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win while the Heat are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (652) Miami Heat |
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04-06-15 | Los Angeles Kings v. Vancouver Canucks +120 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 120 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Numerous playoff positions and seedings are up for grabs as we enter the final week of the season and both teams here are right in the thick of it. Vancouver, Calgary and Los Angeles are separated by three points in the Western Conference with two guaranteed playoffs up for grabs and the odd team out will be fighting for the second Wild Card spot with Winnipeg. The Canucks are in the drivers seat right now as their last three games are all at home and the final two are against two worst teams in the conference, Arizona and Edmonton. While those games are never a guarantee, Vancouver wants to get a step closer here without needing to win out over the weekend. The Canucks have lost two straight games while the Kings have won two straight games which is partly playing into this line but it is mostly because of name. Los Angeles held the Avalanche to 10 shots in its last game, tying the NHL season low but things will not be as easy here. A couple road wins over the Islanders and Rangers were nice but the Kings have dropped their other five games against winning teams since mid-March. The Canucks are 11-4 in their last 15 games after allowing five goals or more in their previous game while going 53-26 in their last 79 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (8) Vancouver Canucks |
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04-06-15 | Wisconsin v. Duke | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
This wasn't the expected National Championship matchup but when two No. 1 seeds, square off, you know they certainly belong here. Wisconsin ended Kentucky's undefeated season with a seven-point victory which came after Duke easily took care of Michigan St. after a slow start. There's just one thing Michigan St. couldn't provide which is a realistic sense of what Duke can expect on Monday night. Granted, these teams met earlier in the season but that was four months ago and we can chalk that one up as an aberration. In the first meeting, Duke put up 80 points in a 10-point win in Madison during the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. The Badgers haven't allowed 80 points to anyone else this season and they haven't allowed another team to shoot 65 percent from the field including 71 percent in the second half which Duke accomplished. How good has Wisconsin been since then? The Badgers have lost only once with Frank Kaminsky in the lineup (he missed the Rutgers game because of a concussion) and that loss at Maryland was easily their worst offensive performance of the season. In that first meeting, Jahlil Okafor had only 13 points and six rebounds which says something about the Badgers interior, but Duke had three players in double figures, including since-dismissed Rasheed Sulaimon. And that is a big loss here. Look for the Badgers to get their revenge and win their first National Championship since 1941. 10* (601) Wisconsin Badgers |
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04-05-15 | Houston Rockets v. Oklahoma City Thunder -1.5 | Top | 115-112 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Things are getting a little too close for comfort in the Western Conference for Oklahoma City which is just one game ahead of New Orleans for the eighth and final playoff spot. The Thunder have dropped two straight and four of their last five games but they have been fortunate that the Pelicans have not been able to gain more ground. Four of their final six games are at home but with Houston and San Antonio back-to-back, they cannot afford to continue their losing streak. The Rockets won 108-101 at Dallas on Thursday, their sixth victory in seven games to remain a game ahead of Memphis in the Southwest Division and for second place in the Western Conference. That certainly makes this a big game as well for the Rockets and while they won the first meeting here this season, the Thunder were without both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Houston has covered just three of the last 12 meetings here and despite all of the injuries that have impacted Oklahoma City's season, being 27-10 at home is still very respectable. Additionally, this is the time they tend to step up as the Thunder are 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (502) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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04-04-15 | Wisconsin v. Kentucky -5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 44 m | Show |
Notre Dame cashed for us Saturday against Kentucky and nearly pulled off the upset but I believe that only helps Kentucky going forward. The Wildcats survived the scare by playing a pretty average game even though they shot 53.2 percent from the floor but managed just 47 shots including only eight from long range. Wisconsin will want to slow things down as well but Kentucky's length and athleticism could present problems for the Badgers. These teams met in the National Semifinals last season and Aaron Harrison drained a game-winning three-pointer with five seconds remaining so Wisconsin wants payback but this time of year, we can throw revenge right out the door as it means little. Kentucky has plenty of motivation and while the Badgers are a better team than last year, the Wildcats are much better than last year's version which is stating the obvious with their 38-0 record. Wisconsin has been an underdog only once all season which happened to be its last game against Arizona so while it is now seeing its biggest number of the season, it will prove to not be enough. I'm all about rooting for the upset but I don't see it happening as the Wildcats should run away with this one. 10* (822) Kentucky Wildcats |
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04-04-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks +5 | Top | 123-110 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Dallas lost at home against Houston in its last game and it has now dropped three of its last four games and five of its last seven going back to mid-March. While a playoff spot is imminent, it has not yet been clinched by the Mavericks which are sitting in seventh place in the Western Conference, four games behind the Spurs but also four games ahead of the Thunder and with six games left, the Mavericks know they're not in a position to start preparing for one particular opponent in the playoffs. And that is a good thing as they try to restore from confidence heading into the postseason. With its victory on Thursday against Phoenix, Golden St. already has exceeded its franchise record for wins in a season, clinched the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs, and has won 11 games in a row. The Warriors are road favorites for those reasons as well as the fact Dallas has yet to cover this season inside this number as the Mavericks are 0-8 ATS as underdogs of four or more points. Most of those roles were on the road though as they have been a home underdog only twice and the last time resulted in a win over San Antonio. Additionally, Dallas will be out to avoid the season sweep against the Warriors so there is plenty of motivation there. 10* (814) Dallas Mavericks |
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04-03-15 | Denver Nuggets +12.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 93-123 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The Spurs are picking up the pace at the right time but it may be too little, too late when looking at the big picture. San Antonio is on the verge of extending its NBA record of 15 consecutive 50-win seasons after clinching an 18th straight trip to the playoffs with a win over Orlando Wednesday but the chances of moving up into a home court playoff advantage is very slim. San Antonio has won five straight games but coming off a roadtrip and with its next four games coming against Western Conference playoff teams including top ranked Golden St., this is not the spot to back the Spurs. Denver has dropped two straight games and while the Nuggets are just playing put the string in waiting for this disappointing season to end, they have shown signs of improvement and would like nothing more than to snap their six-game losing streak in this series. Denver is a respectable 8-8 under interim head coach Melvin Hunt and it has covered in 10 of its last 12 trips to San Antonio. Additionally, the Nuggets have covered eight straight games when playing with a day of rest while going 6-1 ATS this season as double-digit underdogs including wins in three straight games when getting that amount of points. 10* (515) Denver Nuggets |
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04-03-15 | Toronto Raptors +3 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 109-114 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
The bad news for Toronto is that it is playing only one NBA bottom feeder in its remaining seven games but the good news is that of those games, none are against teams with a winning record. The Raptors are tied with the Bulls for third place in the Eastern Conference with Washington not far behind so everything from here on out is important for seeding. Toronto has won its last three games including a victory at Minnesota to move to two games over .500 on the road. The Nets have been even better with five straight wins but the fact they are favored here is an overaggressive move. Brooklyn narrowly defeated the Knicks in their last game on the road and in their most recent home game, they were getting s point against 32-43 Indiana but are now favored by three points in most places against a team that is 13 games better than the Pacers. Toronto will be out to avenge a 16-point home loss against the Nets and the Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile the Nets are just 2-5-2 ATS in their last nine home games while going only 7-14-1 ATS this season as a home favorite. 10* (505) Toronto Raptors |
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04-02-15 | Phoenix Suns +12 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Golden St. defeated the Clippers on Tuesday, its 10th straight victory and eighth straight cover. The Warriors have locked everything up from winning the division and grabbing the number one seed in the Western Conference and is close to wrapping up the best record in the NBA. The win over the Clippers may not seem anything special but that was a game the Warriors wanted badly as they fell behind by as many as 17 points in the first half, cranked up the defense in the fourth quarter, holding Los Angeles to 23.1 percent shooting and forcing seven turnovers. It was the first win at Los Angeles since January 2013 so there is the letdown effect coming into tonight and getting some starters a little extra rest is always a possibility. Phoenix is hoping to keep its slight playoff hopes alive following four straight losses as it is now four games back in the Western Conference standings. The Suns have been an underdog by this much only once this season and they were able to cover at Cleveland. They are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss while the Warriors are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games playing on one day of rest. 10* (705) Phoenix Suns |
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04-02-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Golden State Warriors OVER 209.5 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
We are going with the value in this one based on recent history on both sides as well as the season series to date. The Suns offense has been poor during their four-game winning streak as they have scored no more than 99 points while averaging a mere 90.8 ppg which is considerably below their 103.5 ppg on the season. To no surprise, all four of those games have stayed below the total and the under has come in five straight games for Phoenix. While the Suns are 24-15 to the under at home, they are 20-16 to the over on the road. The Warriors meanwhile are on a similar run as they have stayed under the total in three straight games as the defense has led the charge by allowing just 95 ppg. While the defense has been good all season, this is below the season average 99 ppg and they will be facing an opponent that will run with them. These are the two fastest teams in the NBA as Golden St. averages 101.6 possessions per game while the Suns average 101 possessions per game. Additionally, the Warriors lead in possessions at home while Phoenix leads in possessions on the road. Golden St. is home after a four-game road trip and the over is 5-1 in the Warriors last six home games. 10* Over (705) Phoenix Suns/(706) Golden St. Warriors |
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04-01-15 | Colorado Avalanche +170 v. San Jose Sharks | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
The regular season is winding down and several teams remain mathematically alive for the playoffs in both conferences which makes some games must win scenarios including this one. With that comes inflated lines and this game falls right into that. San Jose has made the playoffs every season for the last decade but that streak will be coming to an end this season unless the miraculous happens which is far fro likely. The Sharks are seven points back in the Wild Card race with just six games left and will have to pass three teams to get there. They are back home following a seven-game roadtrip that did not go well as they went 3-4 and were unable to gain any ground. The overinflation of this line can also be backed up by the fact San Jose is just one point better than Colorado in the Western Conference standings with the home/road splits not that far off yet the Avalanche are catching a big number. With game at Anaheim and Los Angeles to end this roadtrip, this is the most winnable road game of the bunch and with Reto Berra in net, the chances are strong. Berra will start the next two games after having stopped 59 of the last 61 shots (.967) that he has faced. The Avalanche are 11-2 in their last 13 games following a home loss of three or more goals while the Sharks are 3-10 in their last 13 home games. 10* (57) Colorado Avalanche |
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04-01-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
The Bucks won four straight games in late February but then went on a 3-13 skid before finally putting together a winning streak for the first time since that run. However, they have since dropped their last two games and are just two games ahead of Miami for the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference which is a big spot because falling back one more slot means facing Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs. As of right now, Milwaukee would face Chicago in the first round and while it has had little success against the Bulls this season, this is a big game to get some confidence prior to the postseason. Chicago has won the first three meetings this season and has won six straight against Milwaukee going back to last year but is getting a little too much respect here. The Bulls have won their last three games and five of their last six with all of those victories coming by double digits which is a big reason for the big road chalk. The lone defeat came at Detroit and Chicago has a rematch with the Pistons on Friday meaning a lookahead is imminent followed by a game against the Cavaliers on Sunday. The Bucks are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a double-digit loss while the Bulls are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. 10* (512) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-01-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. New York Knicks +10 | Top | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
The Knicks have lost seven straight games while covering just one of those but it was a meaningful cover as it came against the rival Celtics and as far as any more rivalry games go, this is the final one of the season. With two weeks left, New York aims to not only put an end to its recent skid but to avoid a four-game sweep against the Nets this season after dropping the first three. With nothing to play for, why not try and play spoiler at this point? "We don't have a chance of making the playoffs. We know that. We want to make sure that other teams don't really get that chance either, especially Brooklyn, our hometown rival," Cleanthony Smith said. Brooklyn is currently in the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference thanks to a four-game winning streak so while winning is at the forefront, winning on the road by this many points is a challenge. The Nets have been favored by eight or more points three times this season and have failed to cover any of those games and despite playing the worst team in the NBA, they have no business laying this number on the road against a rival. The Nets are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (510) New York Knicks |
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04-01-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Orlando Magic +9 | Top | 103-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
San Antonio won last night in Miami by 14 points to make it four straight wins, all coming by double-digits and tonight marks the 20th game of the season when playing with no rest. The Spurs can clinch a playoff berth with a victory tonight and while the linesmakers are saying this is likely, this is one of those games that San Antonio could falter. The Spurs are 48-26, good for sixth in the conference and until recently, they have danced between the fifth and seventh spots in the Western Conference. However, they are now three games up on the Mavericks at No. 7, so it's becoming increasingly unlikely that the Spurs will draw a top-two team in the first round. Rest is now becoming a big factor which works in our favor in the second of a back-to-back. Orlando is riding a three-game losing streak, all coming at home and all coming by double-digits so we are seeing the exact opposite of what the Spurs have done but the linesmakers are certainly aware. That is not keeping the public away though as the Spurs are the biggest consensus of the night in the NBA despite laying the biog road number. Orlando has not played since Friday and it has covered four of its last five when playing with this much rest while also covering seven of its last 10 games against the Western Conference. 10* (506) Orlando Magic |
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03-31-15 | N.J.I.T. v. Northern Arizona -4.5 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
While the NIT takes center stage tonight, we are going with a play out west from the College Insider Tournament Semifinals. New Jersey Tech heads to Northern Arizona with the winner advancing to the championship game on Thursday. The Highlanders made headlines this season when they went to Michigan and pulled off the upset as a 23.5-point underdog but now looking back and how the Wolverines had a very off year, it was not as great as it seemed. It was still a big win for sure showing how they can win on the road but they also have some bad road losses to teams such as UMASS-Lowell, Holy Cross, LIU-Brooklyn and Dartmouth. Speaking of the road, New Jersey Tech must be wondering what it's like seeing that is has not played a road game since January 25th, a span of 10 straight games. Now it has to make its furthest trip of the season. Northern Arizona had a solid season in the Big Sky, finishing tied for third and it was an overtime game away from going to the conference tournament finals. The Lumberjacks are coming off a big home overtime win over Kent St. to get here which came after two road wins. They are 12-2 at home including wins in seven straight games. New Jersey Tech has covered six straight but the last three were at home and the first three were by getting 20 or more points. Northern Arizona is 13-4-2 ATS this season against opponents coming off a win. 10* (776) Northern Arizona Lumberjacks |
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03-31-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 199 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Both Indiana and Brooklyn are going after the eighth playoff spot in the Eastern Conference as the Pacers are a half-game out while the Nets are now tied with Boston after the Celtics win last night. While there is no real edge either way as both teams come in with some momentum, we are looking at a great spot for a low scoring game based on recent play and series games. Indiana has gone over the total in five straight games thanks to an offense that has averaged 105 ppg and a defense that has allowed close to 109 ppg. These averages are a complete aberration of the numbers from the entire season and I think we see things get back to normal tonight. The same goes for Brooklyn. While it has not been as consistent in scoring and allowing a big number of points of late, the Nets have scored 106 and 107 points the last two games, well above their season average. These teams played just over a week ago and they put on an offensive show with 234 points scored which made it two overs in two meetings this season and four straight going back to last season. Because of that last result, it is no surprise that this total is four points higher and it is also shaded higher because of the recent run for the Pacers. The under is 7-3 in the Pacers last 10 games following a win while the under is 5-2 in the Nets last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* Under (763) Indiana Pacers/(764) Brooklyn Nets |
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03-30-15 | Sacramento Kings v. Memphis Grizzlies -8.5 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
We lost with Memphis yesterday as it went to San Antonio in a game it never led yet had chances late but were outscored by 10 points in the fourth quarter and lost by 14 points. It was the third straight loss for the Grizzlies which have fallen into second place in the Southwest Division and third place in the Western Conference so they need to right the ship. Those losses came by 22, 21 and 14 points and while the three losses aren't the worst losing skid of the season as they lost four straight in late December, it is easily the worst three-game stretch of the season. They catch a good opponent to turn things around against as Sacramento continues its roadtrip after splitting the first two games. The Kings are a dismal 10-25 on the highway, one of just six teams in the NBA with 10 or fewer road wins. They lost at New Orleans Friday by 14 points and now they are getting a line that is just a point higher against a team 10.5 games better than the Pelicans so clearly the linesmakers have no faith in the Grizzlies. Memphis is out to avenge a 12-point loss in Sacramento last month which was the start of its recent 9-10 stretch. The Kings are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (742) Memphis Grizzlies |
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03-30-15 | Houston Rockets v. Toronto Raptors -1.5 | Top | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Houston is coming off a win on Sunday against Washington which was its fifth straight victory and coupled with three straight losses for Memphis, the Rockets have jumped ahead of the Grizzlies in the Southwest Division and into second place in the Western Conference. They end their short two-game roadtrip tonight but this is not an easy spot as this is their fifth game in eight days and they are 4-4 on the season playing back-to-back road games. Houston has been outstanding of late against the Eastern conference while Toronto has been struggling to cover much of anything for a while but we are getting a very good number because of it. The Raptors defeated the Lakers on Friday so they have had a couple valuable days of rest to continue the playoff push. They remain in fourth place in the Eastern Conference and while catching the Bulls would be good, staying ahead of Washington is most important since home court advantage is involved. Houston was favored by just a bucket at home last month in its win over Toronto and the line has shifted only four points since then. The Raptors lost that game by 22 points which was their second worse loss of the season aside from a 24-point loss against Golden St. so revenge will be big tonight as well. 10* (736) Toronto Raptors |
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03-30-15 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Montreal Canadiens -120 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Montreal is one point ahead of the Rangers for the top spot in the Eastern Conference while sitting three points behind Anaheim for the overall lead in the NHL and tonight marks a big game going forward. A win would pad the Canadiens lead to five points over Tampa Bay in the Atlantic Division and would put it in good shape to secure the division. While that is motivation enough for Montreal, getting past Tampa Bay could be an even bigger motivator as the Canadiens are 0-4 against the Lightning this season including a pair of home losses, the last coming at the start of the month in overtime. They also lost two weeks ago in Tampa Bay before going on to win their next three games. Tampa Bay has dropped two straight games following a four-game winning streak and it will be out to avoid its first three-game losing streak of the season. While the Lightning are 7-0 this season following consecutive wins, six of those wins have come at home so the schedule has been in their favor with the lone road win coming at Philadelphia. Additionally, this is the first time all season that all three games will be against playoff teams. Going back, the Lightning are 24-52 in their last 76 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (52) Montreal Canadiens |
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03-29-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +8 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 89-103 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Memphis is clinging to a half-game lead in the Southwest Division over Houston and those spots could flip by the time the night is done but I expect the Grizzlies to hold their own here in a pretty good spot. They are coming off back-to-back blowout losses at home against Cleveland and Golden St. and now they hit the road to face another hot team but they are definitely getting value in the line because of it. This is the second biggest line the Grizzlies have seen this season and the first one came at Washington when Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph sat out so this marks the biggest number of the season with a healthy and full lineup. Memphis has the third best road record in the NBA and the Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. San Antonio is rolling along with a 12-3 record over its last 15 games following a blowout against Dallas on Friday but that game was a revenge game from just three days prior and now the Spurs are favored by just a point less against a team that is five games better than the Mavericks. And as another example, they are favored by just one point less than they were favored by against the 32-40 Celtics in their most recent home game before that. 10* (715) Memphis Grizzlies |
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03-29-15 | Gonzaga +3 v. Duke | Top | 52-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
While Saturday saw both No. 1 seeds advance into the Final Four, Sunday we will not see a top seed get it. The first game does not have a No. 1 seed and Duke, which is the last of three top seeds in the Elite 8, showed signs of definitely being beatable against Utah even though it was able to pull away and win comfortably. The Blue Devils were fortunate that the Utes were ice cold from long range as they went just 4-16 from behind the arc and on top of that, they outscored Utah 20-11 from the free throw line. Additionally, they were outrebounded 17-7 on the offensive glass and while all of this went their way Friday, it will not go their way tonight. Gonzaga has been a powerhouse in the WCC for years as it has steamrolled its opponents but has not ever made a Final Four. The Bulldogs came onto the scene in 1999 and made it to the Elite Eight as a No. 10 seed. Despite making the tournament every year since then including being seeded fourth or better five times prior to this year, they have never gotten past this round. This season, they have lost only twice which came by three points each against BYU and Arizona yet Gonzaga was not given a No. 1 seed and the Bulldogs are out to prove that was a mistake. The best shooting team in the country final gets to cut down the nets. 10* (721) Gonzaga Bulldogs |
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03-29-15 | Michigan State -2.5 v. Louisville | Top | 76-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
This is as old school as it gets where many predicted Villanova and Virginia to be playing here but instead we have two of the best coaches squaring off for a berth to the Final Four. Michigan St. got past the two top seeds on its end of the brackets as it took out No. 2 seed Virginia last weekend and No. 3 seed Oklahoma on Friday. And it did so in two different ways as the Spartans were able to grind it out against the Cavaliers and then go fast against the Sooners and both ways worked which makes it tough for Louisville, even with Rick Pitino, to try and gameplan. On the other side, Louisville snuck by UC Irvine, defeated an overrated Northern Iowa team and had the fortunes to get to meet No. 8 seed NC State in the Sweet 16. Don't get me wrong, this is a quality team with a quality coach and we won with the Cardinals Friday but the run ends today. The best way to beat Louisville is to play strong defense as the Cardinals are not good on offense and do not have one player that can take over and shoulder the scoring responsibility if need be. The Spartans have held opponents to a 39.4 percent shooting this season including 33.1 percent in three tournament games. Michigan St. is 24-4 when giving up less than 70 points and Louisville hasn't scored 70 or more points in consecutive games since January. 10* (719) Michigan St. Spartans |
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03-28-15 | Notre Dame +11.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
After two subpar efforts to open the NCAA Tournament, we finally saw the Notre Dame team that we were expected to see as it opened up strong against Wichita St., withstood a Shockers rally and then pulled away late. This obviously will be a bigger test for Notre Dame which is making its first Elite 8 appearance since 1979 and while destiny is said to be on the other side, it is more so on the Irish sidelines. We made a poor call on West Virginia Thursday as it got destroyed by Kentucky as the Wildcats came out with some additional motivation after West Virginia freshman guard Daxter Miles Jr. guaranteed a win for the Mountaineers and they paid the price as the Wildcats intended on running up the score which they certainly did. They doubled them up but they will have some more difficulties against the efficient Irish. Beyond having one of the most efficient offenses in the country, three-point shooters and underrated toughness, the Fighting Irish believe and confidence goes a long way in playing a team as tough as Kentucky. Going 4-1 against Duke and North Carolina this season has them well equipped for the big stage. The key for Notre Dame is to keep it close early which many terms have not been able to do against Kentucky but the Irish actually have the team to do that. Kentucky's biggest test of the season happens now. 10* (511) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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03-28-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Milwaukee Bucks +5 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Memphis was the lone team in the NBA that Golden St. had not defeated but that changed last night as the Warriors got some revenge from a December loss and have now defeated every team in the league while tying a franchise record for wins. They have been unbeatable over the last two weeks, going 8-0 while covering seven of those including their last six. They are the biggest consensus play on the NBA card today and while the public isn't always wrong, I think they are here as the letdown effect could be big. Additionally, Golden St. closes the four-game roadtrip at the Clippers and even though it is three days away, there is always the chance of a lookahead. WE have backed Milwaukee the last two games and will do so again here is it has bounced back from a brutal six-game stretch to get back to .500 on the season. As mentioned before, Milwaukee had dropped six straight games but two of the losses came in overtime, three other ones came against three of the better teams in the NBA in Cleveland, Memphis and San Antonio while the sixth came to a solid New Orleans team by just one point on the road. Granted, Golden St. is the best team in the NBA but it has not done well in this spot as while it is 11-4-2 when playing with no rest, it is just 3-3-1 ATS in those games when playing the second of back-to-back road games. 10* (506) Milwaukee Bucks |
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03-28-15 | Arizona v. Wisconsin +1.5 | Top | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The favorites were the story on Friday as they won and covered all four games but I think that changes Saturday with this first game. Arizona will have the advantage of playing closer to home with this game taking place in Anaheim as well as the revenge factor after losing to the Badgers in overtime in the Elite Eight almost a year ago to the day. Both teams have gotten better since that battle 364 days ago and the Badgers are getting a little more respect this time around as they are getting a bucket less but I think it is still too much. The inside battle will play a big role in this outcome and if the Wildcats cannot contain Frank Kaminsky like they failed to do last season, they will be sent packing and Sean Miller will be denied his first ever Final Four. The inside is what has helped the Wildcats a lot this season with a lot of that coming from fouls and free throw attempts as they lead the nation with 944 attempts. Wisconsin is disciplined enough to keep that in control as its 12.1 fouls per game is the lowest in the country while allowing just 7.6 ppg from the stripe. While the oddsmakers expect a close one, after a poor performance against a fast paced team on Thursday, expect Wisconsin to pull away against a team it matches up much better against. 10* (514) Wisconsin Badgers |
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03-28-15 | NY Rangers v. Boston Bruins -103 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
The Rangers became the first team in the NHL to clinch a playoff spot with their win over Ottawa on Thursday and while I don't see a letdown, I do see some desperate play taking place on the other side. New York now has 101 points which is tied with Anaheim for the most in the NHL so it certainly wants to keep winning but I don't like the spot here Saturday afternoon. The Rangers have dropped the last five meetings in Boston and while the Bruins are not playing to their potential, sometimes facing a rival in a must win game is the best way to break out. Boston has dropped six straight games and has unfathomably dropped out of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. The Bruins are tied with Ottawa for the East's final Wild Card spot, but the Senators have played one fewer game. Goalie Tukka Rask has been inconsistent of late but he is still much stronger at home compared to on the road as he is 19-8-6 here compared to 10-11-6 on the highway and the home ice GAA is a solid 2.06. Rask is 8-2-0 with a 1.84 GAA in his last 10 starts against New York, including the playoffs. The Bruins skid comes to an end today. 10* (60) Boston Bruins |
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03-27-15 | Michigan State -1.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 62-58 | Win | 100 | 79 h 21 m | Show |
We are often being told how coaching plays such a big role in the NCAA Tournament and you can point to the Michigan St. sidelines for proof. A No. 7 seed, Michigan St. was not expected to do much but many thought it was underseeded after taking out Ohio St. and Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament before taking Wisconsin to overtime. And we are seeing that after an impressive win over Virginia. This is not even close to one of the top talented teams Michigan St. has brought to the Sweet 16 to what it makes for up in talent is hard work, preparation and execution. We played against Oklahoma on Sunday and were a bucket away from cashing but six games in 10 days caught up to the upstart Flyers as they blew a nine-point second half lead and now Oklahoma is back in the Sweet 16. This is a very experienced team that brought back four starters and they are one of only six teams to have the same five players start every game, very impressive. Head coach Lon Kruger is the first coach ever to take four different teams to a Sweet 16 which may sound impressive, but that is meaningless as Izzo could probably take twice as many if given the opportunity to move around. Michigan St. is favored for a reason here. 10* (879) Michigan St. Spartans |
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03-27-15 | Sacramento Kings v. New Orleans Pelicans -7 | Top | 88-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
We have two teams playing the complete opposite right now so it may be surprising to some to see the team on the downturn is laying a big number. New Orleans has lost four straight games and while it can be tough to justify losing, all four losses came against teams that are either in the playoffs or just on the outside looking in. Three of those were on the road while the one loss at home came by just two points against the Rockets. Despite that loss to Houston, the Pelicans are still 10 games over .500 at home and are 11 games better overall than their opponent. Sacramento has won four straight games which is one victory short of a season high which took place early in the season when it opened 5-1. As a matter of fact this is the first time the Kings have won consecutive games of any kind since late November as was on a horrid 0-14 run following a victory prior to this recent winning streak. Three of these wins have come at home and while the win in Phoenix seems impressive, the Suns has won four straight going into that game including back-to-back wins over Dallas and Houston. The Kings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (866) New Orleans Pelicans |
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03-27-15 | NC State v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 77 h 41 m | Show |
In order beat No. 1 seed Villanova, NC State was going to have to either play a near perfect game or have the Wildcats put up one of their worst efforts. The latter came through as Villanova could not make anything, shooting just 31.1 percent from the floor including going 9-28 from long range and it still only lost by three points. The Wolfpack's defense is not that good as the Wildcats picked the wrong time to have one of their worst offensive games of the season. NC State has already defeated Louisville once this season and that came on the road by nine points as a double-digit dog. I don't see it happening again. After struggling against UC Irvine in the opener, the Cardinals easily took care of Northern Iowa from the start and they will get their chance at revenge. Even though Chris Jones, who is no longer on the team, scored nearly a third of Louisville's points, the Cardinals in a better place now without him and taking nothing away from NC State coach Mark Gottfried but having Rick Pitino on the other side is huge as he is one of the best postseason coaches around. Now, the Cardinals find themselves in the Sweet 16 for a program-record fourth straight year and we can't count them out for a third trip to the Final Four since 2012. 10* (878) Louisville Cardinals |
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03-27-15 | UCLA v. Gonzaga -8.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 76 h 20 m | Show |
If there is one team in this tournament that should be playing with a chip on its shoulder, it is Gonzaga. The Bulldogs came onto the scene in 1999 and made it to the Elite Eight as a No. 10 seed. Despite making the tournament every year since then including being seeded fourth or better five times prior to this year, the Bulldogs have never gotten back to the Elite Eight. This season, they have lost only twice which came by three points each against BYU and Arizona yet Gonzaga was not given a No. 1 seed and the Bulldogs are out to prove that was a mistake. UCLA has made an improbable run to the Sweet 16 considering many thought the Bruins shouldn't even be here. They were fortunate to beat SMU and avoided a letdown against UAB which could not avoid its own letdown after defeating Iowa St. While the Bruins may or may not deserve to be here, the fact of the matter is that they are outclassed in this matchup. These teams played at UCLA back on December 13th and Gonzaga had no issues with the Bruins, winning by 13 points in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score indicated. Sure, UCLA will want revenge but it doesn't have the talent to do it. 10* (882) Gonzaga Bulldogs |
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03-26-15 | West Virginia +13.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 39-78 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 49 m | Show |
This is not the matchup Kentucky wanted or needed as it looks to keep its undefeated season alive. The Wildcats had some issue with Cincinnati before pulling away at the end and the game could have been much closer if the Bearcats had been able to knock down a few more outside shots. Kentucky can bring it from everywhere and of course has the talent to come away with a another blowout victory but the Wildcats will be facing a different kind of style on Thursday. West Virginia is first in the country with 16.6 offensive rpg. The Mountaineers need the easy transition points off the press and put backs to win. They attempted 16 more shots than Maryland on Sunday, a by-product of forcing 23 turnovers and grabbing 14 offensive rebounds. Maryland came in averaging 12 turnovers per game so the difference was huge. West Virginia plays an intense style of defense that forces turnovers and the Mountaineers will take it to Kentucky just like Cincinnati did. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (803) West Virginia Mountaineers |
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03-26-15 | Indiana Pacers v. Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 | Top | 107-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
On Tuesday, Milwaukee snapped its six-game losing streak on a last second three-pointer for an absolute must win victory. The Bucks needed something good to go their way after a brutal stretch where two of the losses came in overtime, three other ones came against three of the better teams in the NBA in Cleveland, Memphis and San Antonio while the sixth came to a solid New Orleans team by just one point on the road. Now Milwaukee can carry that momentum into another big game to create some more separation in locking down the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference. Indiana snapped its own six-game losing streak with a win over Washington last night as it came back from a 13-point deficit to win in the final seconds. The Pacers are in a similar spot where they can carry their momentum into tonight but playing back-to-back road games goes against them here where they are just 13-22 on the highway this season and just 1-4 ATS in their last five games playing with no rest. Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS as a favorite of fewer than five points and will be playing with double revenge including an overtime loss at Indiana just over two weeks ago. 10* (802) Milwaukee Bucks |
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03-26-15 | NY Rangers -103 v. Ottawa Senators | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
There is no denying the Senators are the hottest team in the NHL right now as they have won seven straight games while going back further, they are 15-2 over their last 17 games. There are some impressive wins along the way with a pair coming against the Canadiens and one against Anaheim but nine of those victories have come against teams outside of the playoff picture looking in. Momentum could be a little lost here as well as Ottawa has been off since Monday and the Senators are 2-6 in their last eight games playing on two days rest. The Rangers have a comfortable lead in the Metropolitan Division as they have been playing well while the Islanders have been slumping. There is still plenty at stake though as they are tied with Tampa Bay for second place in the Eastern Conference, just one point behind Montreal and if things go right tonight, they could find themselves in first place heading into the weekend. While they have been solid at home, the Rangers possess the best road record in the NHL at 23-12 including wins in five straight on the highway as well as 10 of 12 going back further. The Rangers are 6-0 in their last six games in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation and 21-7 in their last 28 games playing on one day of rest. 10* (61) New York Rangers |
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03-26-15 | Wichita State v. Notre Dame +1 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 75 h 14 m | Show |
I was definitely surprised when this line came out. In competition to the last game, Wichita St. closed as a one-point favorite against Kansas and while Kansas is a lower seed than Notre Dame, it makes sense but you cannot do a seeding comparison. Based on power numbers, the Irish are three points better than the Shockers but this line opened at even as was quickly bet up to Wichita St. being favored. Part of hat is due to the dominance that the Shockers showed against Kansas while Notre Dame has struggled to win its first two games. But those results help us here as it gives us a better line and while the Shockers have already played their A game, we have not seen the best of Notre Dame. The Irish, one of the top shooting teams in the nation, are 8 of 26 from three-point range in two games. The Irish won the ACC Tournament and while some mazy think that was a fluke or never should have happened, let's not forget that they started the season 15-1 with the lone loss coming by a point and are riding a seven-game winning streak heading into Thursday. I think the Shockers were underseeded but not so much where they should come down to Notre Dame's level. Getting Notre Dame at a plus number is a definite take. 10* (806) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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03-26-15 | Los Angeles Kings v. NY Islanders -108 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
We won with Los Angeles on Monday as it needed a win to open this roadtrip against New Jersey and did just that. Surprisingly, the Kings came back and won the next night against the Rangers as they continue to keep their playoff hopes alive. They are just a point behind Calgary, which lost last night, for third place in the Western Conference and they are only two points behind Winnipeg for the second Wild Card slot. While they may be riding a high, the other side looks to be the more desperate team at this point. The Islanders were looking very good in the Metropolitan Division and the Eastern Conference as a whole but a recent 3-8 skid has dropped them six points behind the Rangers and they are in jeopardy of losing home ice in the first round of the playoffs. New York is just two points ahead of Pittsburgh, which plays at Carolina tonight, and is now actually closer to sixth place than third place. After a 23-8 start at home, the Islanders have dropped five in a row here so motivation will not be lacking. The Islanders are 11-4 in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing road record while the Kings are 2-5 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (52) New York Islanders |
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03-25-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 201.5 | Top | 95-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Atlanta has lost three straight games for the first time this season and while the offense has been erratic, the defense can take full responsibility. The Hawks have allowed 114, 123 and 114 points in those losses which followed up giving away 103 points which marks the first time this season they have allowed 100 or more points in four straight games. Prior to this recent stretch, Atlanta had allowed 110 or more points only seven times and followed those games up by allowing just 95.2 ppg. Orlando meanwhile has scored 100 or more points in three straight games for only the second time all season and after the first instance, the Magic put up 86 points which happened to be just a couple weeks ago. To no surprise, the last three games have gone over the total and we are catching a good number here with Atlanta having gone over the total in four straight games. Also, this is the highest total in this series on the season by five points. The under is 7-0 in the Hawks last seven games against Eastern Conference teams while the under is 4-1 in their last five road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Meanwhile, Orlando is 24-4 to the under in its last 28 games against winning teams. 10* Under (757) Atlanta Hawks/(758) Orlando Magic |
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03-25-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Toronto Raptors +1 | Top | 116-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the injury status of Raptors guard Kyle Lowry who was questionable to play last night, but did, and that could have been a mistake as he will be out for an extended time now. The Raptors have more than capable backups with a deep bench and with the loss last night, this has really turned into a big game. They are now a half-game behind Chicago for third place in the Eastern Conference which is a big position as third place gets Milwaukee and fourth place gets the dangerous Wizards in the first round of the playoffs. Additionally, Toronto needs to take some frustrations out to avoid a four-game series sweep against the Bulls this season. Chicago won on Monday at home against Charlotte but ever since a 6-1 run in late February, the Bulls have had trouble stringing wins together as they are 2-5 in their last seven games following a victory. Playing on the highway has been even worse as Chicago is 1-6 in its last seven road games, the lone victory coming at lowly Philadelphia and that took overtime. Toronto is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games playing with no rest and is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when playing at home following a road game, winning by 13 and 17 points. 10* (760) Toronto Raptors |
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03-24-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Sacramento Kings OVER 206 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
It has been another long season for the Kings but they are not giving up as they have won two straight games and both of those were done by the defense, allowing 91 and 86 points. Whether it was actually solid defense or plain bad offense on the other side or a mixture of the two, it provides us with a great opportunity for a high scoring game here. This is the first time the Kings have allowed fewer than 100 points in consecutive games since the first three games of the season but don't expect it again. Sacramento has allowed 90 points or less just eight times all season long and in the previous seven instances, it has allowed 100 or more points in all of those follow up games, allowing an average of 107.4 ppg. The Sixers have gone under the total in three straight games which is the biggest under run since late January. Since then Philadelphia is 5-1 to the over following consecutive unders and while its offense has been hit or miss, it scored 114 points against the Kings which was its last time it surpassed the century mark. The over is 6-2 in the 76ers last eight road games while the over is 4-1 in the Kings last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* Over (659) Philadelphia 76ers/(660) Sacramento Kings |
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03-24-15 | Vanderbilt v. Stanford -3 | Top | 75-78 | Push | 0 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Stanford will be playing its third straight home game to open the NIT with a chance to head to the semifinals at MSG with a victory. Stanford has incurred just three home losses this season which came against Oregon, UCLA and Arizona, all NCAA Tournament teams, and they came by a total of just 12 points. 15 of the Cardinal 17 victories has come in the role of home favorite and they have had some big numbers along which has skewed the ATS record. Stanford has been favored by five points or less at home just once and that was the last game against Rhode Island. On the season, the Cardinal are 3-0 ATS at home when favored by six points or less. After scoring 35 points against Rhode Island, Chasson Randle is just 27 points away from becoming the all-time leading scorer so look for Vanderbilt to try and lock him down which will open up a lot more for the offense. The Commodores opened the tournament with an upset at St. Mary's and they were fortunate to them play their second game at home and now it is back out to California, the second time in six days which is a tough travel disadvantage. They have covered five straight on the road but this is where the run comes to an end. 10* (664) Stanford Cardinal |
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03-24-15 | Miami Heat v. Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 | Top | 88-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
It has been a bad run for the Bucks as they have dropped six straight games which is their longest losing streak of the season and while these skids can rarely be justified, the schedule has certainly played a role along with some tough luck. Two of the losses came in overtime, three other ones came against three of the better teams in the NBA in Cleveland, Memphis and San Antonio while the sixth came to a solid New Orleans team by just one point on the road. Milwaukee is now just a game and a half ahead of Miami for sixth place in the Eastern Conference which is the spot to be in to avoid playing the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs. Granted, that makes this a big game for Miami as well to try and inch closer to that sixth spot but winning on the road has been a challenge of late as the Heat are 2-8 over their last 10 road games Miami will be out to avoid the season sweep but with Milwaukee winning the first three games, that can only help the Bucks confidence tonight. The Bucks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (656) Milwaukee Bucks |
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03-24-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks +3 | Top | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
A 10-2 run has put San Antonio into sixth p[lace in the Western Conference as it was able to jump over Dallas in the standings. The Spurs two losses over that stretch came in overtime so this is a great run, its second best of the season after going on a 13-2 run back on November and December. They have spend the majority of time at home in March in follow up to their lengthy roadtrip and this is just the second of back-to-back road games since February. The Mavericks have done nothing to let San Antonio leapfrog them as they have dropped two straight games which came after a three-game winning streak so it hasn't been all that bad. Because of the Spurs run, Dallas comes in as a home underdog which is extremely surprising as the only other time this season was against Cleveland. In their last home game, the Mavericks were a three-point favorite over Memphis which is five games better than the Spurs. In this series, the underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings with Dallas being the underdog eight times, going 7-1 ATS. Despite the cover at Atlanta Sunday, the Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (658) Dallas Mavericks |
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03-23-15 | Illinois State v. Old Dominion -3.5 | Top | 49-50 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Old Dominion opened the season with three straight wins before losing and then going on to win 10 consecutive games. That one loss came against Illinois St. back in November in St. Thomas by 19 points in a game it was actually favored in. Now the Monarchs are favored by less and on their home floor where they will be out for some serious revenge. It was their only non-conference loss of the season as well as their biggest overall so they have had this one circled ever since Wednesday when this matchup was confirmed. Old Dominion is a perfect 18-0 at home and certainly hope to have Trey Freeman in the lineup following him spraining his ankle at practice Saturday. Illinois St. has a solid season in the MVC including an upset of Wichita St. on the conference tournament and after easily getting by Green Bay at home in the NIT open, the task becomes more challenging here. The Redbirds are 7-5 on the road and are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win while the Monarchs are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (616) Old Dominion Monarchs |
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03-23-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. New York Knicks +13 | Top | 103-82 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Memphis is coming off a big win over Portland on Saturday as it defeated the Blazers by 11 points to make it two straight wins to stretch its lead over Houston to 3.5 games for second place in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies now hit the road again and what looks like an easy task tonight but it is what looms ahead that makes this a tough sandwich spot. They head back home to face Cleveland on Wednesday and will be out for retribution following a 14-point loss in Cleveland earlier this season. They have failed to cover five of their last six games as road favorites. New York is coming off a loss at Toronto yesterday by 17 points and while it has obviously been a brutal season, the linesmakers aren't stupid as the numbers have been serious adjusted. New York is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games when getting 7.5 pr more points including outright wins over Oklahoma City, Toronto and San Antonio. Memphis meanwhile is 1-7 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite and an even worse 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (604) New York Knicks |
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03-22-15 | West Virginia v. Maryland | Top | 69-59 | Loss | -106 | 34 h 38 m | Show |
Both West Virginia and Maryland survived second round scares on Friday and both could be better off for it but the Terrapins have the matchup edge here. The Mountaineers were in control for most of the game against Buffalo but the Bulls made a run late and if not for a bad referee call and a missed layup, West Virginia might not even be here. They were able to force 17 turnovers which is their trademark but Maryland does not commit many turnovers as its guard play is exceptional. It was a similar game for Maryland against Valparaiso as the Terrapins led virtually the entire 40 minutes but couldn't put the Crusaders away who went 12-26 from behind the arc to keep things close. While West Virginia gets the accolades for a strong defense, Maryland allows just 39.5 percent shooting and the shooting variances favor the Terrapins. Maryland is +4.3 percent is shooting percentage differential while the Mountaineers are -5.5 percent. Additionally, Maryland 15th in the nation in free throw shooting while also sitting 15th in points per game from free throws as it gets a quarter of its total from the line. West Virginia is nowhere near that which is a huge disadvantage tournament time and Maryland is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win. 10* (728) Maryland Terrapins |
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03-22-15 | Dayton +4.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 66-72 | Loss | -112 | 31 h 48 m | Show |
Dayton made a run to the Elite Eight last year before succumbing to Florida and the Flyers look poised to make another run. Motivation isn't lacking for any team this time of year but Dayton felt slighted by its seeding and after escaping against Boise St. in the first round, it easily took care of Providence on Friday. While undersized (265th nationally in average height), Dayton is rated among the top 40 defensive teams in the country by Ken Pomeroy and it showed against the Friars as they allowed just 33.9 percent shooting, clamping down on LaDontae Henton and Kris Dunn. Oklahoma took care of Albany but it wasn't as easy as it should have been as it led from start to finish but never led by more than 12 points. This is no doubt a solid Sooners team no doubt and while they had their share of quality wins, they also had some bad losses, Washington, Creighton and Kansas St. for example. While Oklahoma is the mush higher seed, the draw is not a good one as Providence can say. Dayton is playing just 75 miles from campus and while its fan-base travels well to begin with, the short trip only makes it easier. Additionally, the Sooners are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (729) Dayton Flyers |
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03-22-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Atlanta Hawks -2 | Top | 114-95 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
Atlanta is back home following a six-game west coast roadtrip where it ended up splitting but lost the last two games against the Warriors and Thunder. While today's task is far from easy, the return home is a big advantage. While the recent two-game skid is motivation enough, the Hawks will have something to try and prove as they have gone eight straight games without defeating San Antonio. Atlanta is 30-4 at home this season which includes a 25-2 record over its last 27 games. San Antonio looks to be shaping back into form as it has moved into sixth place in the Western Conference thanks to two straight wins as well as victories in nine of its last 11 games. The Spurs have been a much better home team than road team as they are right at .500 away from home and have struggled against some of the top teams of late, going 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile the Hawks are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record and they get their revenge on Sunday. 10* (704) Atlanta Hawks |
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03-21-15 | Phoenix Suns v. Houston Rockets OVER 207 | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
A horrible call on the over in the Phoenix/New Orleans game on Thursday sets us up for a bounceback here and the total is in our favor. The last two meetings in this series had back ends of 220.5 and 217.5 and both went over without a problem and now we are catching a number that is 10 points less than that second one. Phoenix is in the midst of its second significant run of unders as after going eight straight games in January of staying under the total, it has now gone under in its last seven games. With the exception of Thursday, it has not been anything consistent however which is the key as one game of bad offense has been followed by one game of good defense and neither have intertwined. The Suns matched a franchise low for points in a victory in that game against New Orleans. It was their third-worst shooting performance of the season for a team that had scored at least 70 in a half twice this season. Houston has won three straight games and went over the number in the last one on Thursday and I expect that to continue here with this favorable number. The over is 5-2 in the Suns last seven games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game while the over is 4-1 in the Rockets last games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (507) Phoenix Suns/(508) Houston Rockets |
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03-21-15 | Boston Bruins -117 v. Florida Panthers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
The Bruins were looking solid for a playoff spot but three straight losses coupled with three straight wins by Washington has dropped them five points behind the Capitals and they sit just two points ahead of Ottawa for the eighth slot. Following an embarrassing home loss against Buffalo as a massive favorite, Boston lost to the Senators on Thursday to open this three-game roadtrip. With a game at Tampa Bay tomorrow, this is a must win for the Bruins. Florida defeated Detroit on Thursday as it continues to creep up the Wild Card standings, now just five points behind Boston. The Bruins have a favorable matchup tonight as its nine straight wins over the Panthers ties it for the second-longest series winning streak in the league. That streak goes up by one for goalie Tuukka Rask who has won 10 straight games against Florida while posing a 0.99 GAA. Going back, the Bruins are 21-10 in their last 31 games after allowing five goals or more in their previous game while the Panthers are 27-59 in their last 86 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. This is by far the lowest moneyline Boston has seen in this series during the winning streak and we take advantage of that tonight. 10* (15) Boston Bruins |
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03-21-15 | Georgia State +6.5 v. Xavier | Top | 67-75 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
While it can be argued that Georgia St. is in for a massive letdown on Saturday following its upset of Baylor, it catches a good matchup and is getting a very solid number on top of it. The Panthers came into the season as preseason favorites in the Sun Belt Conference and they did not disappoint with a 15-5 record to win the regular season crown and then backed it up with the conference championship with two wins. The win over Baylor was not as much of a surprise as many people may think as this is a quality team and while they were on our radar against the Bears, we laid off because Ryan Harrow, who is averaging 19.4 ppg was out because of a hamstring injury. He is listed as probable heading into this game which would be a massive addition to an already dangerous team. Xavier had no issues with Mississippi on Thursday but I definitely feel that the Musketeers are overvalued here. While three of their 13 losses came against Villanova, there were some very suspect defeats as well including DePaul, Creighton and Auburn. One of their strengths is free throw shooting which is extremely important in the tournament but Georgia St. is actually better in that category and has been more consistent of late than Xavier. 10* (511) Georgia St. Panthers |
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03-21-15 | UAB +7 v. UCLA | Top | 75-92 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
UCLA won on Thursday in the most controversial game of the day but you have to give credit to the Bruins as they came back from a late nine-point deficit to make it close game. While we played on them there, we will be going against them here as they are laying a bigger than expected number. UCLA was one of the last teams into the NCAA Tournament and has seen a double-digit spread swing from the first game to this one. UAB meanwhile is also coming off an upset as it ousted Iowa St. by a point to keep its season alive. The Blazers were picked to finish seventh in the preseason C-USA poll but ended up finishing in a tie for fourth place and ended up winning the C-USA Tournament. They did have the luxury of it being played on their home floor but the win over the Cyclones shows this team cannot be taken lightly. These team have already played once this season as they met in one of the consolation games in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament and UCLA came away with the easy victory. The stats were very even in that contest however with the exception of free throws where UCLA went to the line 14 more times and converted 11 more free throws than the Blazers which was the ultimate difference. 10* (519) UAB Blazers |
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03-20-15 | St. John's v. San Diego State -4 | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
San Diego St. was the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West Conference and while it claimed a share of the regular-season title for the fifth time in the last six seasons, it can be considered a disappointing season so there will be motivation to prove people wrong. The Aztecs will be making their sixth straight NCAA appearance and have nine players with tournament experience. St. John's has none. St. John's lost to some very good teams this season but also had its share of disappointing losses, going down to Seton Hall, DePaul and Creighton. St. John's will be without forward Chris Obekpa, one of the nation's top shot-blockers, who was suspended Sunday for two weeks and does not bode well for the Red Storm here. San Diego St. does not shoot the three well so it will attack down low with a lot of depth of big guys. The Aztecs won all seven games following a loss this season and going, they have responded with a victory in the game immediately following each of its last 17 losses which is the longest active streak in the nation. The seven wins this year were by an average of 10.9 ppg and the 17 wins were by an average of 16.4 ppg with only three coming by fewer points than what they are favored by here. 10* (832) San Diego St. Aztecs |
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03-20-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 210 | Top | 115-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Injuries are the story here as neither team is at full strength which of course caused a delay in the release of the line at most places and the total everywhere. The Hawks defense which has been very solid this season, did not perform well against Golden St. in their last game and will look to bounce back against a Thunder offense that has been on high octane despite the absence of Kevin Durant. Atlanta allowed 114 points on 52.4 percent shooting against the Warriors and that was just the eighth time they have allowed 110 or more points. In the previous seven times, the defense allowed fewer than 100 points six times whole allowing an average of 95.3 ppg. The Thunder have gone over the total in their last three games and the last two were not even close with 234 and 240 points being scored. Those were against two of the faster teams in the NBA however as they were both up and down games and the Hawks are not that team and do not want to get involved in a shootout knowing defense is the best cure for a bounce back. The under is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 games following a loss while the under is 17-7 in the Thunder's last 24 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (811) Atlanta Hawks/(812) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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03-20-15 | Oklahoma State v. Oregon -1.5 | Top | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
Oklahoma St. was one of the select few teams in the argument that it should not have been included in the field of 68 and I am one of those. The Cowboys went 8-10 during the Big 12 regular season, lost badly to Oklahoma in the conference tournament and comes into here on a 1-6 streak with the lone victory coming against TCU. They had the lowest RPI in the Big 12 of the teams in the NCAA Tournament while going just 3-9 against the top 25. So while I think they were overseeded or should not even be here, I feel Oregon was underseeded. But the 8/9 matchup is helping us with a line shorter than it should be. The Ducks were blown out against Arizona is the Pac 12 Championship but that is nothing to discredit them. They had won seven straight games prior to that and come in with a top 25 RPI. Oregon has one of the best pure scorers in the country in Pac 12 Player of the Year Joseph Young and he is going to score his points no matter what this Oklahoma St. defense tries to do. The only defense this season that really slowed him down was Arizona as he averaged 20.2 ppg in 34 games including just 14.3 ppg against the Wildcats. Oklahoma St. is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games in the second half of the season against teams shooting 45 percent or better. 10* (848) Oregon Ducks |
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03-20-15 | Indiana v. Wichita State -5.5 | Top | 76-81 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
Wichita St. is one of my sleeper teams in the NCAA Tournament. After making the Final Four in 2013 and going undefeated until the third round of the NCAA Tournament last year, the Shockers may not be considered a sleeper. But coming in as a No. 7 seed, they definitely are. The Shockers should be a No. 4 seed given their RPI ranking, while the Hoosiers are the worst defensive team in the NCAA Tournament and they were another one of those bubble teams that got in because of the Hoosiers name. The Shockers rank in the top 20 nationally in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, don't turn the ball over, hit the glass hard on both ends and really don't have a glaring deficiency on their profile. That is bad news for an Indiana team that allows 77.6 ppg on 46.6 percent shooting. Indiana is going to need one of its best performances of the season in terms of taking care of the ball. Wichita St. is located about 303 miles southwest of Omaha, so the Shockers should have a strong contingency of fans in the arena on Friday, especially with a potential matchup with Kansas looming on Sunday. The Shockers won all three games following a loss this season and this is a good price as they went 7-3 ATS As single-digit favorites. 10* (844) Wichita St. Shockers |
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03-20-15 | Buffalo +4.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 62-68 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
Buffalo is making its first even NCAA Tournament appearance and despite being a No. 12 seed, it caught a very good matchup here. Buffalo won the MAC's Eastern Division and grabbed the automatic bid by defeating Central Michigan 89-84 for the conference title. The Bulls have won eight straight games and while the level of competition was weak, there are two other games to look at. The Bulls led Kentucky 38-33 at the half in Lexington before losing and they also put up a fight at Wisconsin before losing 68-56. The RPI of 32 is the highest of any of the No. 12 seeds in the tournament. The Bulls play one of the nation's fastest paces, ranking 12th at 71.1 possessions per game. Their efficiency is solid (56th nationally) and thy rank 28th in scoring while averaging 72 percent from the foul line. West Virginia is a press team but that falls into a strength of Buffalo which will be able to pass the ball around and get uncontested shots beyond the three point arc and deep two pointers. The Mountaineers are a poor shooting team, hitting just 41.2 percent of their shots including only 31.8 percent from long range. Buffalo is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after a win by six points or less while West Virginia is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games away from home when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. 10* (833) Buffalo Bulls |
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03-19-15 | Eastern Washington +7.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 74-84 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
While Eastern Washington and Montana tied for the Big Sky Conference regular season championship, Montana was awarded the home floor advantage during the conference tournament, thus becoming the favorite to make it here. Eastern Washington would have something to say about that though as the Eagles came from behind in the second half to win. They are a dangerous team with the nation's leading scorer in Tyler Harvey but there is more to them than him. Eastern Washington ranks in the top 20 nationally in three-point percentage (39.6), percentage of shots taken from 3 (43.2), and percentage of points scored from 3 (37.7). Georgetown is another team that was awesome at home but just average on the road. The Hoyas were 8-7 away from home and the big thing they did not do well was defend the arc, allowing 41.6 percent from long range, one of the worst percentages in the nation. The Eagles have a big travel edge here as well with this game being played in Oregon and they are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games in the second half of the season away from home against teams outscoring opponents by four or more ppg. Additionally, they are 5-1 ATS as underdogs which includes an outright win at Indiana. 10* (735) Eastern Washington Eagles |
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03-19-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Phoenix Suns OVER 201 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This total came out late due to injuries for Anthony Davis and Brandon Knight for New Orleans and Phoenix respectively. The total is the play tonight as we are getting a very attainable number that is being aided by recent lack of success of the over. Phoenix is in the midst of its second significant run of unders as after going eight straight games in January of staying under the total, it has now gone under in its last six games. It has not been anything consistent however which is the key as one game of bad offense has been followed by one game of good defense and neither have intertwined. New Orleans is coming off a game against Milwaukee where 169 points were scored, its second lowest scoring game of the season. The Pelicans have had 11 previous games where fewer than 180 points were scored and in the follow up game, the over has come in 8 of those 11 times. Phoenix has been off since Sunday which is a good thing as the over is 5-1 in its last six games playing on three or more days rest while the over is 10-3 in the Pelicans last 13 games playing on one day of rest. Additionally, we play on the over involving a home team coming off a home win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .501 and .600. This situation is 63-29 (68.5 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (705) New Orleans Pelicans/(706) Phoenix Suns |
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03-19-15 | Pittsburgh Penguins -103 v. Dallas Stars | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Pittsburgh has lost three straight games and is in desperate need of a win with Washington hot on their heels. The Capitals are just two points back of the Penguins for third place in the Metropolitan Division following two straight wins. Pittsburgh is coming off a loss at New Jersey on Tuesday which made it three straight games of offensive struggles as it has managed just one goal over that stretch. The Penguins are a decent 18-16 on the road but more importantly, they are 11-3 in their last 14 road games coming off a road loss. The Stars are one of a select few teams in the league that have performed better on the road than they have at home as their 13-22 record in Dallas is pretty unattractive. Dallas remains within eight points of Winnipeg, which holds the second Wild Card spot in the Western Conference but there are still three teams between them as well so making the postseason is pretty slim at this point for the Stars. Pittsburgh falls into a great situation where we play against teams coming off a divisional loss by two goals or more going up against an opponent coming off a shutout road loss. This situation is 24-8 (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (13) Pittsburgh Penguins |
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