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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-08-14 | Iowa State v. Kansas +4 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 74 h 54 m | Show |
We have been involved in only one Kansas game this season and that was back in Week Five when we bet against the Jayhawks and they were shutout at Texas. That was the first of five straight losses to open Big XII action and Kansas is now one loss away from staying home in the postseason for the sixth straight season. While we would not touch the Jayhawks if they were laying any sort of number, the fact they are getting points here against a team that is just as bad shows tremendous value. The Cyclones come in with an identical 2-6 record and while they do own one quality victory this season against Iowa, it has been a rough stretch since then. Iowa St. is 1-4 over its last five games while getting outgained by 716 yards over that stretch. The last time Iowa St. was asked to lay points on the road was close to two years ago in this same stadium and while it succeeded with a big win over Kansas, the situation was totally different as the Cyclones needed that win to become bowl eligible. And now, they are laying more points with the slightest chance of going bowling this season. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams getting outscored by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 42 points or more last game. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after a loss by 35 or more points. 10* (140) Kansas Jayhawks |
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11-08-14 | Connecticut v. Army +4.5 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 53 m | Show |
We have gone against Army on the road twice this season at Stanford and at Wake Forest and it has not won a road game since 2010 as it has lost 19 straight game on the highway. That is the true highway however and this game is being played on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium and not counting the game against Navy, a perennial beatdown, the Black Knights in fact won their other neutral site game last season against Louisiana Tech. Connecticut is coming off an upset win at home last weekend against Central Florida which snapped a five-game losing streak. The Huskies took advantage of four turnovers which ended up being the difference as they scored a season high 37 points. They managed only 327 yards of offense which has been the issue all season and despite the eight-point win, Connecticut was outgained by 102 yard. It was the seventh time in eight games that the Huskies have been outgained this season with the only positive yardage differential being just 35 yards against Temple. Now Connecticut is being asked to lay points for the first time this season against a team from the FBS and going back, they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a favorite, losing four of those games outright with the lone victory coming against Stony Brook of the FCS by just three points. Connecticut is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams who give up 34 or more ppg while going 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games following a win. 10* (158) Army Black Knights |
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11-07-14 | Dallas Mavericks -2.5 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 105-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
While Dallas played good for a half last night, the Mavericks fell apart in the second half as they fell behind by 27 points and ended up losing by 21. Dallas had won three straight games prior to Thursday and now it will look to bounce back in the second of a back-to-back set at Utah which it has beaten in six straight meetings. The Mavericks dropped to 1-2 on the road but going back, they are 39-14 ATS in their last 53 road games against teams with a winning home record. Utah last played on Wednesday and was able to defeat the Cavaliers on a last second shot to move to 2-3 on the season. The Jazz are in a classic letdown spot tonight and winning consecutive games has been a rarity the last couple years. Last season, Utah was just 7-17 following a victory including a 4-12 record following a home win. The Jazz are 0-1 following a win this season and they catch Dallas at a bad time as the Mavericks are 25-7 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Additionally, this game falls into one of the great bounce angles as we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a home win by three points or less, in November games. This situation is 24-1 ATS (96 percent) since 1996. 10* (519) Dallas Mavericks |
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11-07-14 | Utah State v. Wyoming UNDER 46 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 76 h 52 m | Show |
We are going the opposite way with our total on Friday as we are catching another matchup with a skewed over/under based on recent results. Utah St. travels to Wyoming for a rare nationally televised game in Laramie. The Aggies became bowl eligible last Saturday with a win at Hawaii, its second straight win over a bottom feeder from the MWC. Both of those games went over the total as well as last week they were able to surpass the 41.5 number with ease. Now Utah St. is seeing a higher number this week with a lot that based on the other side. Wyoming snapped a four-game losing streak with a victory last week at Fresno St. as it scored a season high 45 points. The Cowboys offense has picked things up lately, scoring 28 or more points in three of its last four games after scoring 20 points or less in its first five games. This has a lot to do with the defenses faced however and this week they will take on an Aggies stop unit that has allowed 20 points or less in five straight games and one that is ranked 39th in total defense. Wyoming has gone over the total in five straight games and that is helping with the number this week. Four of those games were on the road and the other game at home took overtime to surpass. The under is 10-3 in the Aggies last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while the under is 12-3 in the Cowboys last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Under (115) Utah St. Aggies/(116) Wyoming Cowboys |
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11-07-14 | Columbus Blue Jackets +132 v. Carolina Hurricanes | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
We have a case of a quick turnaround revenge game for Columbus which lost the first meeting against Carolina on Tuesday 4-2. The Blue Jackets were outshot 37-19 with one of those goals coming on an empty netter and the one big positive to take away was their 6-6 success rate on the penalty kill. The loss was the sixth straight for Columbus after starting the season 4-2 and their eyes were opened by the stretch of bad play over the last few games, with the low point being their most recent loss on Tuesday. While the Blue Jackets are in the midst of bad run, the Hurricanes have run off three straight wins after starting the season 0-8. Carolina was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NHL so we feel that the recent run is not going to last. Still one of the lowest scoring teams in the league, the Hurricanes have yet to score more than three goals during the winning streak, not counting that last empty net goal. Carolina has been favored only once all season and that was against Buffalo, easily the worst team in the NHL and by comparison, it was not by a whole lot more than it is tonight. The Hurricanes are 0-6 in their last six games in the second game of a home-and-home situation and Columbus falls into an excellent underdog situation where we play on road underdogs of +100 to +150 coming off two consecutive divisional losses, playing with two days rest. This situation is 31-12 (72.1 percent) since 1996. Columbus has won eight of the last 11 meetings overall while going 4-1 in the last five meetings in Carolina. 10* (3) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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11-06-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 23 m | Show |
At first glance, this number seems pretty high for a divisional game where the teams are separated by just a half game for first place. But in reality, I don't think it is enough as these teams are not as equal as the records may show. Cleveland is one of the pleasant surprises in the NFL as it is off to a 5-3 start but that record is extremely skewed. The Browns have been outgained in six of their eight games and that always catches up to teams, especially when three of those negative TYD's have taken place the last three games. And even worse is that those were against Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay which are a combined 2-23 on the season. Winning the last two games shows some clutch performances but that should not be the case against bottom of the barrel teams. The Bengals have not exactly been tearing it up either as they are 2-2-1 over their last five games but the two losses came against the Patriots and Colts, both on the road, and there is no shame in those defeats. This is the third straight home game for the Bengals which is a big advantage when playing the third game on a short week and it is even bigger with three straight road games upcoming including the first one taking place in New Orleans. The Browns have played the easiest schedule in the league and they are by far the lowest ranked winning team in my most recent power rankings. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Bengals have gone 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 regular season home games. 10* (110) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-06-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets OVER 199.5 | Top | 81-98 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Through eight games combined between these two teams, the under has come in all eight times which sets up a great opportunity tonight for a higher scoring game and we are getting a good number to play with. San Antonio played last night and blew a 17-point lead but was able to hang on in a low scoring game that finished with just 86 points. Prior to that, the Spurs and Suns finished with only 83 points so I expect things to change here. As for Houston, the offense has been able to score in bunches as it has gone over 100 points in all five of its games but it has been the defense that has kept the under run going as the Rockets have allowed no more than 93 points through five games. While the Spurs offense has been quiet thus far, remember that they were fourth in the NBA last season in scoring with 103 ppg. Houston meanwhile is right around its average from a season ago so we should see both offenses find success tonight. The first meeting last season went over the total and while the final three meetings all stayed under, two of those would have gone over if using tonight's number as those final three games has over/under totals of 212.5, 209 and 211.5. The over is 12-3-1 in the Rockets last 16 home games against teams with a losing road record while the over is 18-7 in the Spurs last 25 road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 10* Over (701) San Antonio Spurs/(702) Houston Rockets |
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11-06-14 | Clemson v. Wake Forest OVER 42 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
It is rare to see a total this low in college football but with recent offensive struggles by both teams, it isn't all that surprising. What is surprising though is the struggles on offense on the Clemson side as it has been unable to do nothing on that side of the ball the last three games. The Tigers have scored 23, 17 and 16 points over their last three games but they have played some solid defenses in those games that are ranked 6th, 11th and 38th. Wake Forest will be the worst defense it has faced over this stretch and I expect this offense to come back around behind quarterback Cole Stoudt who has actually been very solid in his three games since replacing Deshaun Watson. The Demon Deacons have allowed an average of 32 ppg over their last three games and two of those came against Boston College and Syracuse, ranked 65th and 93rd respectively in total offense. Wake Forest has had problems on offense all season long as it has not surpassed 24 points in any game. It has gotten even worse of late but we are banking on some success Thursday night despite playing a very tough Tigers defense. This number is low enough to where we do not need Wake Forest to go off as a limited amount of points will help as the Clemson offense takes care of most of this total. Wake Forest has gone under in five straight and Clemson has gone under in four straight so that makes this a huge contrarian value play. 10* Over (111) Clemson Tigers/(112) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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11-05-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Golden State Warriors -3 | Top | 104-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
We lost with the Clippers in their last game as they were coming off a loss against Sacramento in their previous game and while they did bounce back with a victory, they failed to cover. Now they hit the road for the first time this season as their lone road game came at the Staples Center against the Lakers, which doesn't count as hitting the road, and the challenge will certainly be a tough one. The first four games came against some soft opposition as three of those teams are not going to make the playoffs while the fourth, Oklahoma City, is a mess right now. Now the Clippers head to Golden St. to take on the undefeated Warriors, which are off to their best start in 20 years. The Warriors are 3-0 and they will b e sky high tonight as they will be out for some payback after the Clippers eliminated them from the playoffs last season in a classic seven-game series. Golden St. will be getting David Lee back tonight who missed the first three games of the season with a hamstring injury. Andrew Bogut, who was injured during last seasons first round of the playoffs and did not play, is leading the team with 9.0 rpg so he and Lee together is big. The Warriors are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games playing on two days rest and they have covered 16 of the last 21 home meetings in this series. Revenge will be sweet tonight. 10* (524) Golden St. Warriors |
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11-05-14 | Northern Illinois -3 v. Ball State | Top | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
Northern Illinois has to get out of this game with a win and then gets a chance to host first place Toledo next Tuesday with first place in the MAC West on the line. The Huskies have not been the dominating team like they have been in the past but they are sitting at 3-1 in the conference which is just a game out of first place. The proof of not being dominant this season is looking at their recent ATS record as Northern Illinois is currently on a five-game losing streak against the number. That sets us up very well here as we are catching a very manageable number to cover by. Ball St. is 3-5 overall including a 2-2 record in the MAC. The Cardinals have won two straight games which came after a five-game losing skid. They defeated Colgate out of the FCS in their season opener while outgaining the Red Raiders by 287 yards but since then, they are 1-5-1 TYD (Total Yardage Differential) and are getting outgained by close to 40 ypg. On the flip side, Northern Illinois is outgaining opponents by 62.3 ypg and cit has been outgained only twice all season. Ball St. will be fired up for a home game on national TV but that won't be enough here as the Huskies are still the much better team with a lot more at stake. The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a non-winning home record. 10* (107) Northern Illinois Huskies |
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11-04-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 215 | Top | 112-106 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
These teams played six days ago and while they went over the total then, the value has shifted quite a bit to the other side. And a lot of that is due to what has taken place to start the season. The Lakers are off to a 0-4 start with all of those games going above the total. The noteworthy thing is that each game has seen a higher total going forward as it has gone from 207 to 208 to 210 to 210.5 and now it has gone all the way up to 215 in some spots which is a huge adjustment. On the other side, Phoenix has gone over in two of its first three games including last time out at Utah where it lost by 27 points. This too is the highest total that the Suns have seen this season as the previous high has been 208. The Lakers defense has been the main culprit in their slow start to the season and they are aware that they need to buckle down. Los Angeles is allowing a league-high 118.0 ppg but that number is not high because of pace, which is an important factor in totals. The Lakers are allowing an average of 77.3 shot attempts per game which is fifth lowest in the league so they have been on the wrong side of some hot shooting teams, especially from long range where opposing teams are averaging a league-high 12.8 three-point makes per game. On the other side, Suns games are seeing 169.3 shots per game from both sides which is the fifth lowest in the league. Going back to last season, the under is 8-2-2 in the Suns last 12 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 4-0 in the Lakers last four games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. 10* Under (715) Phoenix Suns/(716) Los Angeles Lakers |
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11-04-14 | Toledo v. Kent State +14 | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Toledo is coming off a win against Massachusetts in its last game by just seven points and now it is laying its second biggest number of the season and on the road no less. The Rockets have not been able to cover much this season as they are 1-6 against FBS teams and a big reason for that is that they are still a public favorite and they have yet to win a game against an FBS opponent by more than 14 points. They have been outgained on four of their seven games against teams from the FBS as their defense has been horrendous as they have allowed 35 or more points four times. This is a defense that even Kent St. should be able to break through as it has not been able to do so very much. The Golden Flashes have scored more than 17 points only once this season but their defense has kept some of their games within reason as not counting games against Virginia and Ohio St., four of the other five losses have been by 10 points or less. Toledo is in first place in the MAC West with a 4-0 record but right on its heels is 3-1 Northern Illinois which plays Wednesday and the Rockets travel to face the Huskies next Tuesday which puts them in a classic lookahead spot here. While the Rockets may come away with the victory here, doing so by more than two touchdowns is too much to ask. 10* (104) Kent St. Golden Flashes |
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11-03-14 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Clippers -8 | Top | 101-107 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
The Clippers are coming off a loss last night after opening the season 2-0 so this will be the first opportunity to bounce back off a defeat. They were fantastic in this spot a season ago as they won 23 of 31 games following a loss and they were even better in this tightener. Los Angeles was 6-0 last season when playing at home immediately coming off a home loss. The Clippers covered five of those six games and the six victories came by an average of 19.2 ppg with five coming by double-digits. Los Angeles has yet to cover a game this season so it is getting a very good line tonight and the lowest of the season. Utah meanwhile has started just the opposite as it was blown out in its first two games against Houston and Dallas before destroying Phoenix by 27 points at home on Saturday. Last season, the Jazz went 7-17 following a victory including going just 1-5 in six road games following a victory at home. Those five losses came by an average of 14.2 ppg and one of those happened to come against the Clippers after a home win over the Lakers. That loss was by only eight points but Utah was getting 14.5 points in that one so we are laying a very reasonable number tonight based on that differential. The Clippers have won nine straight in this series including five straight at home, coming by an average of 11 ppg. 10* (512) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-03-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants UNDER 50.5 | Top | 40-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
A barrage of points in the fourth quarter last night saw yet another primetime game go over the total and sportsbooks continue to feel the burn. Of the 27 Thursday, Sunday and Monday primetime games this season, 21 have gone over the total and public has absolutely cleaned up. The linesmakers are making adjustments to curb this but it has not been enough and the public will continue to ride this anomaly. The Colts have the best offense in the NFL in terms of both scoring and yardage so they are expected to score in bunches and while the Giants defense has been inconsistent, playing at home will help as they are allowing 358 ypg and 20.7 ppg in three home games compared to 404.3 ypg and 26.8 ppg in four road games. The Colts have gone over in all four road games this season which again adds the contrarian value aspect. The Giants offense has struggled the last two games which coincides with running back Rashad Jennings being out of the lineup and that will be the case again this week. Without Jennings, the running game has faltered and that in turn hurts the passing game which of course is now without Victor Cruz. The Colts defense was playing at a high level until last week but I expect a big bounce back this week. This is the third time this season the Giants have had an over/under in the 50's and the first two games stayed under the total. The under is 18-7-1 in the Giants last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* Under (473) Indianapolis Colts/(474) New York Giants |
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11-03-14 | St Louis Blues v. NY Rangers -103 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
St. Louis took care of Colorado in a shootout on Saturday for its fourth straight victory to improve to 6-4 on the season overall. Three of those wins came at home however and the lone road victory took overtime to get it done. Overall, the Blues are 2-2 on the highway and going back, they are 2-8 in their last 10 road games. New York is coming off a shootout loss on Saturday against Winnipeg which snapped a three-game home winning streak. The Rangers have not allowed a goal in regulation and overtime in two of their last three home games, and have allowed one goal or fewer in eight of their last 13 regular season home games. While it has been an inconsistent start to the season, the Rangers have earned a point in five of their last six games (4-1-1 record over the span) and have also earned a point in each of their last four home games (3-0-1 record over the span). After starting eight consecutive games and with New York's schedule getting busier in November, starting goalie Henrik Lundqvist will sit while Cam Talbot will get his second start of the season. Talbot has posted a 5-3-0 record, along with a 1.51 GAA, a .946 save percentage and two shutouts in eight career appearances against Western Conference opponents. The price is right along with the situation for the Rangers to complete the season sweep of St. Louis. 10* (2) New York Rangers |
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11-02-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
This game is off the board in most places due to the uncertainty of Warriors forward David Lee but he likely will not play and won't make his season debut until later in the week. It hasn't mattered for the start of Golden St. however as it is 2-0, winning the first two games by 18 and 23 points. Those games were against the Kings and Lakers however so the Warriors take a big step up in competition here. While Golden St. drilled Sacramento, Portland went there and lost by nine points two nights later which puts the Blazers in a great bounce back spot tonight as they return home. We won with Portland on Wednesday as it ran away from Oklahoma City in the fourth quarter and catching the Warriors off a win last night and having to travel sets up the good opportunity. Over the last six seasons, the Blazers are 5-1 after losing their first game and the loss on Friday should serve as an early wake up call. The teams split the season series last year, each winning one game at home and one game on the road. Portland's success comes down to the play of LaMarcus Aldridge as in the two losses, he either didn't play or was limited while in the two victories, he scored 30 and 27 points while hauling down a combined 28 boards. He has paced the Blazers in the first two games of the season, averaging 24.5 ppg. Look for the Blazers to rebound with a big win tonight. 10* (708) Portland Trailblazers |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 48 | Top | 23-43 | Loss | -108 | 85 h 52 m | Show |
We won the Under in week Two when these teams met on Thursday night. Here is one of the big reasons for that play taken from that analysis. " This series has gone over five of the last seven meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than any of those and this where we are catching value. And here is the real clincher. Four of those five games that went over the total would have stayed under should they have been presented with this total as all four of those saw 43 or fewer points scored. Since 2008, there have been 14 meetings between these two teams and only one of those final scores would have been over the 44.5 given to us tonight." That game stayed well under the number and in the second meeting, we are getting an even larger number to work with. 14 of the last 15 meetings in this series have stayed under the 48 points that we are presented with this week and we are banking on it again. Helping us is the fact that Pittsburgh rang up 51 points against the Colts last week and that all four of the Steelers home game have gone over the total. Additionally, three of the four Baltimore road games have gone over the total including last week's game at Cincinnati so the linesmakers have no choice but to lay a big number here. Oh, and the fact that seven of eight Sunday night games have gone over the total this season. You know where we are going. 10* Under (471) Baltimore Ravens/(472) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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11-02-14 | Anaheim Ducks v. Colorado Avalanche +111 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Colorado is coming off a shootout loss in St. Louis last night as it was unable to build off a 5-0 victory over the Islanders on Thursday. The Avalanche are now 3-9 on the season and tonight begins an important stretch with the start of a three-game homestand. While the losses have been building, they have been playing better as the Avalanche have earned at least one point in six straight games after securing points in just two of their first six contests. Anaheim meanwhile is coming off an overtime win over Dallas on Friday but the offense continues to struggle. Anaheim has totaled four goals in splitting its last four games after averaging 3.4 gpg during a seven-game winning streak. That is not good news against a Colorado defense that has stepped up when needed as the Avalanche, whose 91.7 percent success rate is behind only Detroit's 94.1 percent mark, have been perfect over their last 20 short-handed situations. While goalie Semyon Varlamov started last night in St. Louis, it has been confirmed by head coach Patrick Roy that he will start again tonight. He has a 1.80 GAA over his last five games. The Avalanche are 5-2 in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (60) Colorado Avalanche |
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11-02-14 | NY Jets +10.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -130 | 77 h 24 m | Show |
After winning with the Jets two weeks ago, we lost with them last Sunday against Buffalo as Geno Smith threw three picks on his first four possessions which led to him getting benched and New York was unable to recover. Michael Vick takes over as the starter and while he is not a big upgrade, he is an upgrade nonetheless and working in practice with the first team all week should have him much better prepared this week. The Jets have dropped seven straight games to fall to 1-7 but the strange thing is that they have been outgained by a paltry 11 yards on the entire season. We all know that means and it is pretty obvious where the problems lie when your turnover margin is at -13, an NFL worst. Smith was responsible for 12 of 16 giveaways so we are banking on that getting better. The Chiefs followed up an upset win over San Diego by easily defeating the Rams last week which were coming off an upset home victory over Seattle in their previous game. Hosting the Jets is not going to get the juiced flowing especially with a game at 5-3 Buffalo next week following by Seattle and then two divisional games. Kansas City is a good team but are they good enough to be laying double-digits? The last time that happened was in 2005 so I'm saying no. Contrarian thinking says to play on road underdogs or pickems after seven or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (461) New York Jets |
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11-02-14 | San Diego Chargers +1.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 0-37 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 23 m | Show |
We play on and lost with San Diego last Thursday night in Denver. Had the Chargers won that game, we would not be playing them here but coming off two straight losses and in danger of falling further back in the playoff chasing pack, we will ride them here playing on extra rest. San Diego has been outplayed in both of the recent losses, losing the yardage battle by 114 and 119 total yards so it has gone from dominating during a five-game winning streak to being outplayed over the last two weeks. Bring on the Dolphins as they have won two in a row, both on the road, and they have dropped two straight at home. Granted, those losses came against Kansas City and Green Bay but we can put the Chargers in that category of solid teams. Miami has been outgained in four of their last six games and while the yardage differentials have been minimal, it has still been on the wrong end which is not a good sign. It has come down to turnovers and the same can be said for the Chargers with both being on the opposite ends. That brings in a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. This situation is 42-14 ATS (75 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, San Diego is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (451) San Diego Chargers |
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11-02-14 | Philadelphia Eagles -1 v. Houston Texans | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 77 h 23 m | Show |
I'm typically not one to lay points on the road but this is an exception as the Eagles have played great the last two weeks only to split their games. They destroyed the Giants three weeks ago which led into their bye week only to lose against the Cardinals last week after giving up a 75-yard touchdown pass with 1:21 remaining and then getting stopped on the Arizona 16-yard line following three straight incomplete passes. Philadelphia hits the road once again and road teams coming off a road loss have fared very well over the years, going 70-26 ATS in the month of November over the last 10 years. Turnovers have killed the Eagles this season as they are -7 in margin and have won the turnover battle only once in seven games. Houston took care of Tennessee on the road last week which snapped a three-game losing streak. The Texans have outgained each of their last two opponents after getting outgained in each of their first six games so they are either trending in the right direction or it is a false perception. I am backing the latter as they have been outgained in 11 of 14 games going back to last season they are also part of a turnover situation, but not in their favor. We play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 31-9 ATS (77.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The better team wins which means a likely cover as well. 10* (459) Philadelphia Eagles |
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11-01-14 | Vancouver Canucks v. Edmonton Oilers +115 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
This is already the third meeting between Vancouver and Edmonton with the Canucks taking the first two matchups. Vancouver has won its last three games but all of those were at home and this is the first road game in a week for the Canucks. While they are 3-2 on the road to start the season, the Canucks are 5-21 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Oilers have been a very streaky team to open the season as they lost their first five games only to go ahead and win their next four games before losing to Nashville in their most recent game. This is the final game of a seven-game homestand for Edmonton which started with Vancouver and now ends with the Canucks. Obviously, there is a double revenge angle going but even more important for Edmonton is to win this homestand finale before heading out on a five-game east coast roadtrip. While going 0-2 against the Canucks, the Oilers had one of their best defensive performances of the year in the most recent meeting as an empty goal clinched the 2-0 win and in the first meeting, the loss took place in a shootout so they have held their own. Despite being 0-6 within the Western Conference, this is a good opportunity for the Oilers to grab that first conference victory. 10* (22) Edmonton Oilers |
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11-01-14 | Southern Miss v. UTEP -6.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 100 h 32 m | Show |
We missed the good opening number on this one but it should not come into play anyway. UTEP won its second straight game, a 34-0 shutout of UTSA on Saturday and it dominated just as the score indicates as the Miners won the yardage battle by 281 yards. Now they head back home where they are 2-1 and they are also 2-1 in the conference while a victory will have them one win away from bowl eligibility. Not bad for a team that won only five games over the last two years combined. Southern Mississippi has also made some positive strides as after missing only one games over the last two seasons, the Golden Eagles already have three wins this season. Two of those wins came against struggling North Texas and Appalachian St. while the third was against Alcorn St. of the FCS. They played well for most of the game last week against Louisiana Tech but suffered a blow when starting quarterback Nick Mullens went down with a foot injury and he is questionable for this week. UTEP is favored by less than what North Texas was favored by in the last road game for Southern Mississippi and that should not be the case. Here, we play on teams that have a +/- 5 ppg differential) going up against a team with a -10 ppg differential or worse, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (398) UTEP Miners |
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11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 32 m | Show |
We lost with Oklahoma St. last week as it fell behind 14-0 and could not recover. It was the second straight loss but they were outgained by only 12 yards but the problem was that they could not covert when needed as the Cowboys were just 3-20 on third and fourth down. Things won't get any easier this week but Oklahoma St. is getting a very favorable number and the setup is outstanding as this is a great bounceback opportunity. Kansas St. is coming off its second straight really big win as it took down Oklahoma two weeks ago and then shut out Texas last week. Overall, it was the Wildcats four straight victory and their fifth straight cover which in itself is a solid go against angle. With the Cowboys slumping and coming off two big win, it would not be shocking to see Kansas St. come in lethargic especially with a game at TCU next week. This series has been very tightly contested as each of the last seven meeting has been decided by fewer points than what the Cowboys are getting this week. Oklahoma St. falls into a fantastic contrarian situation as well as we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 17 or more points. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (367) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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11-01-14 | Indiana Pacers +10.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The Pacers lost at home last night against a very good Memphis team and now have to hit the road for the first time this season. This is a different team from last year for sure but it looks as though they have lost the respect of the linesmakers. The Hawks were last favored by double-digits in April of last season, right before the playoffs, against the Sixers by 12.5 points. While that team hasn't changed much nor has Atlanta, this line is saying that Indiana is just two points better that Philadelphia? I don't think so. The loss of Paul George, not to mention Lance Stevenson, is no doubt huge but it is not as big as this line may be telling us. This is a 14.5-point swing from the opening game of the playoffs that was played here and it is simply too big of an adjustment. That game against the Sixers was the only time Atlanta was a double-digit favorite all season. The Hawks lost their opener in Toronto on Wednesday so they will be out to make up for that as well as avenging the first round playoff loss to the Pacers last season. Revenge can only go so far in certain cases however as it is hard to get up for it when the opposing team is different from the previous version. Atlanta was a lot better at home than on the road last season but a 24-17 record in its gym is nothing to get excited about. Plain and simple, the Hawks have no business laying double-digits to any team. 10* (513) Indiana Pacers |
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11-01-14 | Old Dominion +7.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 32 m | Show |
It was expected that Vanderbilt was in for a tough season with all of the losses in incurred and that has proven true as the Commodores are 2-6 overall including 0-5 in the SEC. the two victories have come by a combined four points and one of those was by just a single point against Charleston Southern of the FCS. Vanderbilt has been outgained in every game this season and while it is on a solid 4-1 ATS run, all of those covers came as an underdog of at least 16.5 points. Now the Commodores go back to the role of favorites where they are 0-3 ATS on the season. What started out as a good season for old Dominion has gone south quickly as the Monarchs have lost four straight games and was unable to cover any of those games. Those games were against some solid competition however and despite playing a team from the SEC this week, they are not at a big disadvantage at all. While the defense has been horrible, Vanderbilt has an offense that is ranked third to last in the country so it cannot take advantage. And on the flip side, Old Dominion has a solid offense and should have no issues keeping it going here. The Monarchs fall into a solid situation where we play against home favorites team from a major division conference going up against a team from a second tier conference, off a road loss against a conference rival. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (377) Old Dominion Monarchs |
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11-01-14 | Winnipeg Blue Bombers +10 v. Calgary Stampeders | Top | 18-13 | Win | 100 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
We passed in the CFL last week and it was probably a smart move as the four games combined fell within four points of spread. It has been two months since Winnipeg last covered a game and even longer since it won a game outright as it has dropped eight in a row. Half of those losses have been by six points or fewer and while that may be little consolation in this horrible run, it does show they have been competitive. The Blue Bombers are in the unique situation of having their second bye fall in Week 20, meaning it's the end of the line for this edition of head coach Mike O'Shea's club this weekend. While they could pack it in and play young players, they aren't going that route. Starting quarterback Drew Wiley, who missed the first meeting against Calgary two weeks ago, will make the start. The Stampeders clinched the top spot in the West Division with that 10-point win over Winnipeg so there isn't a whole lot of motivation heading into this game especially with the season finale against rival B.C. next week. While the depth of this team is solid, it has been hinted that some of the veterans may be taken out to rest and avoid injury before the CFL playoffs start. We have two solid situations backing the Blue Bombers. First, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a home win over a division rival, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 36-9 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on underdogs or pickems that are coming off a loss against a division rival, in November games. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (493) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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11-01-14 | Western Michigan v. Miami (OH) +7 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 1 m | Show |
Miami Ohio may be out of bowl contention already, but it continues to play hard and expectations were low coming in so everything positive at this point is a great stepping stone for next season. The RedHawks were 0-12 last season but they already have two wins this season and have missed out on a couple more by narrow margins. They were outscored by nearly 24 ppg last season but this year, they are getting outscored by just 8.1 ppg which is a dramatic increase. Miami has won two straight at home and has won the yardage battle in its last three home games. Western Michigan is having an even better turnaround season as it has gone from 1-11 last year to 5-3 through eight games in 2014. This includes three straight wins and the Broncos are tied for the longest ATS winning streak in the country with seven straight covers. That is certainly playing into this number and after playing their first five road games as an underdog, the Broncos are now favored on the road for the first time which is a red flag. Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS this season when getting a touchdown or more and its only underdog loss came by just a point and a half when it lost by eight points as a 6.5-point dog against Buffalo. The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while Western Michigan is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* (344) Miami Ohio RedHawks |
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10-31-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers +4 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 114-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Overreactions in any sport are common and that certainly includes the NBA which we are seeing right here. We played against the Cavaliers last night and as expected, they did not play very good in the debut of the "New Big Three" but they have a chance to bounce back tonight. I certainly do not expect the chemistry of the new roster to be at 100 percent after just one game but I do expect the team to be a lot more focused after last night which was a circus atmosphere in Cleveland and that is putting it lightly so hitting the road right away is a very good thing. The Bulls opened their season with a resounding win over the Knicks on the road, the same Knicks team that just beat Cleveland last night so doing the math means Chicago rolls tonight. If only it were that easy. The Bulls are contenders right behind Cleveland in the Eastern Conference thanks to the return of a healthy Derrick Rose but he was pretty average in his season debut. The Bulls will be fired up tonight to host LeBron and company but they too have some chemistry issues with a lot of new personnel even though it may not have shown in the first game. While the Cavaliers felt the pressure at home last night, the Bulls could feel that same pressure in their home opener tonight and I expect Cleveland to bounce back Friday night. 10* (703) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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10-31-14 | Tulsa +24 v. Memphis | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 84 h 55 m | Show |
After three wins all of last season, Memphis already has surpassed that as it is 4-3 including 2-1 in the AAC which is just a game out of first place. I'm not completely sold on the Tigers however and they should not be favored by this much against a team with a pulse. They were favored by 22 at SMU last time out but the Mustangs are arguably the worst team in the FBS. This is taking nothing away from what head coach Justin Fuente has done this season but at 4-3, are the Tigers really this good according to the line? Tulsa is not having a good season and one more loss means its bowl hopes are gone and it will be sitting at home during the postseason for a second straight year. The chances of closing out with five straight wins is pretty much guaranteed not to happen but if we are going to see an all out effort at least one more time, this is the game with elimination on the line. The Golden Hurricane have lost their last six games while covering only one of those but this is the biggest number they have seen against a team not names Oklahoma. Three of the six losses have been within this number so they have not been completely dominated. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog coming off a bye week and in this case, Memphis has only five days to prepare for this one. The Tigers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games off a double digit road win and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. 10* (307) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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10-31-14 | Los Angeles Kings -108 v. Detroit Red Wings | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This line was off the board early due to the questionable status of Anze Kopitar and while it is still uncertain if he will go, we are playing it based on he will not play and if he does, it will be in our favor. We lost with the Kings last night and while it didn't help that goalie Jonathan Quick sat, it didn't matter much as the offense was shut out by Marc-Andre Fleury who made 36 saves for the Penguins. Los Angeles is 0-2 on this roadtrip that started with an overtime loss in Philadelphia and the Kings are now 0-3 on the highway this season. This is a great opportunity for a bounceback and a chance to get their first road win of the season. Detroit meanwhile is coming off a win at Washington on Wednesday as it turned a 2-1 deficit after two period into a 4-2 victory. The Red Wings return home where they are 3-2 on the season and while things could be better there with one loss coming by one goal and the other in a shootout, things could also be worse as all three wins have come by one goal, the last two coming in overtime. While motivation is not needed for the Kings, they will be out to avenge the series sweep that took place last season including a shootout loss in this building last January. Los Angeles won its only other game this season when playing with no rest and it is 5-1 in its last six games in the second of a back-to-back set dating back to last season. 10* (53) Los Angeles Kings |
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10-30-14 | New Orleans Saints -3 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 28-10 | Win | 103 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Despite being winless on the road, the Saints have gone from a pickem on Thursday to a small favorite over Carolina. I think that is the right move that came early in the week shortly after release and once we get closer to gametime, we will likely see the line continue to rise so it is best to bet this one now. New Orleans is coming off an excellent performance on Sunday night against the Packers even though it won the yardage battle by just four yards. The Saints have dropped seven straight regular season games on the road but they were able to cover their last one in Detroit and they are getting a good matchup here. Carolina is coming off a hard fought loss against Seattle on Sunday and after a 2-0 start, the Panthers are 1-4-1 over their last six games. They outgained Tampa Bay by 70 total yards in their season opener but since then, they have been outgained in their last seven games. The fact that three of those resulted in non-losses is fortunate as getting outgain in this league tends to lead to losses the vast majority of the time. New Orleans has won 13 of its last 15 games when scoring 40 or more points as it tends to carry momentum forward which makes this short week actually a good thing in keeping that momentum rolling. We play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are being outscored by five or more ppg in the first half, after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) New Orleans Saints |
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10-30-14 | New York Knicks +12.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
The Knicks got throttled last night, their second worst opening night loss in franchise history while Cleveland opens its season as favorites to win the NBA Championship. Who do you think the public will be on here? It was a bad offensive display last night against the Bulls as New York shot just 36.5 percent from the floor including 17.6 percent from long range. Carmelo Anthony finished with just 14 points but it wasn't just him as everyone shot the ball bad but some of that credit has to be given to the Chicago defense. Things can only get better. This is a big night in Cleveland for obvious reasons but we cannot be handing the Cavaliers a championship yet. Remember back in October 2010 when the highly anticipated Big Three of Miami took the floor for the first time and lost against Boston. That Heat team would start the year 9-8 before finally getting going and the point here is that this new team in Cleveland is not going to come out on fire and blow every one away early on. There are going to be chemistry issues early on and we can take advantage of the early overvalued lines. New head coach David Blatt even said that he feels his team is ready to go, but realizes the Big 3 still need time to jell. New York went 4-0 ATS in its final four games following a double-digit loss last season and the Knicks are getting more points tonight than they did in any game last year which again shows the drastic overadjustment of this line. 10* (503) New York Knicks |
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10-30-14 | Troy v. Georgia Southern -25 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 59 h 26 m | Show |
Rushing advantages/disadvantages are a lot more prevalent in college football than in the NFL and those variances can often be the biggest deciding factor in a win/loss or cover/non-cover. That is definitely the case here as Georgia Southern will have no issues moving the ball on the ground. The Eagles have won five straight games and are sitting at 6-2 on the season with the only losses coming against NC State and Georgia Tech by a combined five points. They are in first place in the SBC with a 5-0 record and control their own destiny at this point. Troy is riding a two-game losing streak and its only win this season came against lowly New Mexico St. and this is certainly not the season head coach Larry Blakeney envisioned in his final one with the Trojans. The Eagles are averaging 402.1 ypg on 7.4 ypc both of which are the highest averaged in the country. Troy meanwhile is allowing an average of 244.6 ypg on 5.7 ypc which is near the bottom in the entre nation so stopping this attack will be next to impossible. Two situations are in our favor also. First, we play against road underdogs outrushed by their opponents by 1.25+ yards/carry on the season, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1992. Second, we play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 230 or more ypg rushing against teams averaging between 100 and 140 ypg rushing, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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10-30-14 | Florida State v. Louisville +5 | Top | 42-31 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 26 m | Show |
Florida St. is the reigning National Champion and is sitting undefeated against this season at 7-0 following a thrilling, albeit fortunate win over Notre Dame two Saturday's ago. The Seminoles have been able to get the job done for the most part but they have not been nearly as dominating like they were last season and that is proven by their 1-6 record against the number. They have won both true road games but failed to cover against NC State and Syracuse and this is now the biggest road test of the season. Louisville is 6-2 and has outgained all but one opponent and that negative was just three yards against Virginia. The Cardinals are 4-0 at home and while this will be their biggest home test, they are getting a substantial amount of points for a team that has a big edge in a significant category. That is rushing. The Seminoles are ranked 94th in rushing ypc and have really struggled against the better defenses they have faced in Notre Dame, Clemson and Oklahoma St. Now comes Louisville which is ranked number one in the country in rushing defense and total defense for that matter. And schedule strength doe not come into play as both have played fairly similar schedules. I love the fact that Bobby Petrino has had extra time to prepare for this one as he should have his offense ready as well. Florida St. is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game while Louisville is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. 10* (306) Louisville Cardinals |
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10-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trail Blazers -8 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
This is a good opportunity for Portland to jump on one of the frontrunners in the Western Conference. This is a big number for the Blazers to be laying against one of the top teams in the conference but it is more that justified. First off, Portland is a team on the rise as it improved by 21 games last season from the previous one and has a chance to break into the elite. Second, the home floor is one of the best around and opening night will surely make it even more electric. Third, the Thunder enter the season as one of the most banged up teams in the NBA. Kevin Durant is out for an extended period of time while five other players are either out tonight or will be limited. Andre Roberson and Perry Jones will make their way back to the court tonight to start at shooting guard and small forward, respectively, but Durant, Anthony Morrow, Reggie Jackson, Mitch McGary and Grant Jerrett will not make the trip leaving the Thunder with nine active players for tonight's game. This is a tricky situation as the Thunder also play tomorrow night as they are in Los Angeles to play the Clippers so managing this team and the minutes will be difficult. Portland and Oklahoma City split their four games last season and a depleted Thunder team should be no match tonight as the Blazers pull away. 10* (724) Portland Trailblazers |
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10-29-14 | Nashville Predators -115 v. Edmonton Oilers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
What a turnaround it has been for Edmonton. The Oilers opened the season with five straight losses but since then, they have been unbeatable as they have won their last four games. After losing two straight at home to open the season, all of the wins have been on home ice and this includes a shutout against Montreal last time out. That of course provides us with a solid play against opportunity. Nashville has been up and down this season as it is 5-3 and coming off a shutout loss against Pittsburgh thus providing a play on opportunity the other way. The Predators have followed up their other two losses with victories in their next game and going back, they are 5-0 in their last five games on the road against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or better. Nashville will no doubt be focused after losing all three meetings with the Oilers last season, all of which were by three goals or more and all of which they were favored in. Here, we play against home underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line after having won four of their last five games, with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 56-18 (75.7 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Edmonton is 9-17 against the money line in its last 26 home games off a home shutout win. 10* (53) Nashville Predators |
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10-29-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals -127 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The Royals made it look easy last night as they shut out San Francisco 10-0 to even the series and send it to a decisive Game Seven tonight. Yordano Ventura came up huge and was able to go seven innings which was big as it gave Kansas City a chance to rest the bullpen for another night and have them come in fresh should they be needed tonight. Obviously the momentum has clearly shifted to the Royals side and last night's win has been a dagger to the road teams that were in similar spots over the years as going back to 1982, home teams that win Game Six in either the League Championship Series or the World Series are 14-1 in Game Seven. Additionally, the home team has won each of the last nine World Series Game Sevens, dating back to 1982. Those are hard scenarios to overlook. We played on Jeremy Guthrie in the first matchup in Game Three in San Francisco and he was able to pull out the win. The Royals have won both of his postseason starts and have won his last five overall where he has posted a 1.19 ERA covering 30.1 innings. Guthrie said he's "in as good of shape and in as good of a position to pitch well as I've been all season long." On the other side, there is Tim Hudson who pitched decent against Guthrie but he has struggled lately as he has just one quality outing over his last six starts and has a 6.30 ERA over that stretch. With momentum and the home crowd on their side, the Royals magical season concludes with a World Series championship. 10* (914) Kansas City Royals |
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10-29-14 | Washington Wizards v. Miami Heat -4 | Top | 95-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a big game for Miami, a statement game if you will. The Heat were embarrassed in the NBA finals last season against San Antonio as they lost four games to one with all four losses resulting in double-digit blowouts. That alone should provide some motivation heading into the new season. However, we also have a different motivator going tonight as Miami will be out to play hard to win following the departure of LeBron James who went back to Cleveland in the offseason. This has been a great angle over the years where we see a team step it up in their first game of the season after the team's superstar hit the road. We recall the Cavaliers doing it their first game after LeBron left as they defeated Boston in 2010. Washington would normally provide a formidable opponent but the Wizards are not close to 100 percent. They made a great run last season and are expect to be a top four team in the Eastern Conference but tonight they head to Miami without some key contributors. Nene and DeJuan Blair are serving suspensions, Bradley Beal is out with a wrist injury, Kris Humphries is out with a hand injury and Martel Webster was already on the shelf after back surgery over the summer. Because of low expectations in Miami, we are getting a solid number which is eight points less than the first meeting last season. 10* (710) Miami Heat |
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10-28-14 | Dallas Mavericks +4 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in San Antonio and we know what that means. The Spurs will be lowering their 2013-14 NBA Championship banner on Tuesday night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge event and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done. Now let's go back to the NBA Champion angle. Prior NBA Champions are usually slow starting out of the gate the following season since their lines are over-adjusted to start the season. The last 13 NBA Champions (Dallas, Boston, San Antonio four times, Miami three times, Detroit and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 40-66 ATS mark (37.8 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Distractions and overvaluation are definitely keys to this. We have seen it in the season opening game for the reigning NBA Champions for six of the last eight seasons. San Antonio won its fifth NBA Championship since 2003 after defeating Miami in five games and hosts Dallas on opening night. The Spurs are again one of the favorites to win again this season and Dallas will be out for some revenge after losing in the Western Conference quarterfinals in seven games. The Mavericks have fared well in this matchup, winning six of the last seven meetings against the numbers and the underdog has covered eight of the last nine meetings in this series. Look for Dallas to keep this one close and the outright win is far from out of the question. 10* (501) Dallas Mavericks |
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10-28-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals -137 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
It is do or die time for the Royals as they need to win tonight to stave off elimination and keep this magical season alive. They have fought back before as they bounced back at home in Game Two following a Game One loss and the pitching matchups remain identical as they were in those first two games. While history may not be on the Kansas City side by being down 3-2 in the series, a win here and the switch gets flipped as going back to 1982, home teams that win Game Six in either the League Championship Series or the World Series are 14-1 in Game Seven. The Royals hand the ball to Yordano Ventura and after allowing a three-run homerun in the Wild Card game against Oakland in a relief appearance, he has carried this team on his shoulders. He has a 3.50 ERA in three postseason starts, all Royals wins, and last time out Ventura gave up only two runs in 5.1 innings of his first World Series start, leaving with two on and one out in the sixth inning of an eventual Royals win. Jake Peavy will have to follow up Madison Bumgarner which won't be easy as he was nearly unhittable on Sunday. Peavy has been a great addition to the San Francisco rotation as he had a 2.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 12 regular season starts but he has not been great in the playoffs and going back for his career in the postseason, Peavy is 1-4 with a 7.05 ERA in eight starts. And he does not like it here as in eight starts at Kauffman Stadium, he is 1-6 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. 10* (912) Kansas City Royals |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
Washington snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Tennessee last week and while that won't be impressing many people, it put a halt to the skid and with that pressure now gone, the Redskins can play loose against one of their most hated rivals. The offense has been doing nothing of late but installing Colt McCoy into the starting lineup at quarterback could be the spark that the Redskins need. It has been a bad run for Washington which seeks its first division victory since Week 17 of 2012, and its first two-game winning streak since winning back-to-back games in the final two games of the 2012 season. Those are the types of streaks the public fades and we play on. Dallas is having a surprisingly great season as it has won six straight games while covering five of those. Last week the Cowboys defeated the Giants as 4.5 point favorites and now they are favored by 5.5 points more and there is not a chance Washington is 5.5 points worse than New York. Division games have a certain mystique about them for obvious reasons and this one is no different which makes this point spread completely out of whack. It also brings in an odd dynamic as the Cowboys go from double-digit underdogs two weeks ago to double-digit favorites and while that differential can be seen in college football now and again, it is a rarity in this league. The Cowboys are 8-20 ATS against teams with a losing record while going 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. The underdog is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 meetings in this series and I expect that to continue tonight. 10* (277) Washington Redskins |
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10-27-14 | Minnesota Wild v. NY Rangers -110 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
We have the East vs. West dynamic going and while the latter is considered more powerful overall, I think that actually helps us out here. Minnesota is 4-2 on the season but is still sitting in ninth place in the Western Conference standings due to the strength above it. The Wild are on a two-game winning streak but both of those wins were at home where they are 3-0 and they hit the road where they are just 1-2 including two straight losses. The Rangers meanwhile had their three-game winning streak snapped with a loss against Montreal on Saturday but they return home where they have won two in a row and they are sitting on a solid number here with a lot of that due to the East/West scenario. Minnesota is 6-18 against the money line in its last 24 games as a road underdog of +100 to +150 while going 7-20 against the money line in its last 27 road games after allowing two goals or less in two straight games. The Rangers are 6-2 in their last eight home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and fall into a simple yet effective situation where we play against road teams against the money line that are coming off two consecutive home wins by two goals or more going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 112-67 (62.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (52) New York Rangers |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 78 h 44 m | Show |
With the Saints loss last Sunday in Detroit, they have fallen to 2-4 on the season but the good news is that they are part of the worst division in football and are just one game behind Carolina in the NFC South. This is the start of four home games over their next five and that is huge for a team that is completely different in the friendly confines of their dome than they are on the road. The host is a perfect 6-0 in New Orleans games this season and I expect that to continue by the end of the night. Green Bay is coming off a blowout win over Carolina to run its winning streak to four games and it remains tied with Detroit for first place in the NFC North. The Packers are playing great right now and of course the public is well aware of this which is keeping this line lower than it should be. This could be the worst time for the Packers to have to travel to New Orleans and the primetime slot only makes it a bigger home field edge. Under Drew Brees, the Saints are 14-3 ATS in 17 home games coming off a road loss while under head coach Sean Payton, they are 14-4 ATS in 18 games following any loss of six points or less. The Packers meanwhile have failed to cover in their last five games against teams with a losing record while going 1-11 ATS in their last 12 non-divisional games with a line between +3 and -3. 10* (276) New Orleans Saints |
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10-26-14 | Kansas City Royals +149 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
As expected, the bats caught fire last night, going from 10 hits combined on Friday to 28 hits last night between the two teams. We go from, the back end of the rotation to the top of it so we can expect less offense which favors the underdog based on the probability of less runs for either side. Additionally, everyone remembers Game One and the outcome and they will be expecting a repeat but I don't believe so. The winner of this game will have a commanding lead in the series and while a 3-2 lead may not seem commanding, this is the 44th time that the World Series has been tied 2-2 and of the previous 43, the winner of Game Five has gone on to win the Series 28 times (65.1 percent). Madison Bumgarner has obviously been outstanding so going against him may not seem plausible but he is very beatable at home. He has been a better road pitcher all season as he has a 1.96 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 21 starts, with the Giants going 16-5 in those games. At home, he has a more pedestrian 3.88 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with San Francisco going only 8-9 in his 17 starts. On the other side, James Shields is struggling mightily. In the postseason, opponents are hitting .337 off him, and they've strung together 15 runs on 28 hits with six walks and 16 strikeouts in 19 innings. But like Bumgarner, he has been better on the road than at home as he has a 3.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 20 road outings with the Royals going an outstanding 16-4 in those games. The Royals are 13-1 in Shields' last 14 road starts against teams with a winning record so at these odds, we are receiving exceptional value. 10* (909) Kansas City Royals |
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10-26-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
The Steelers came through for us last Monday against Houston and there were definitely some good fortunes involved there. While it wasn't their best game overall, the win itself was huge and they can carry that into this week. This is the second of three straight home games for Pittsburgh and it needs to take advantage as the back end of the schedule is brutal. The Steelers are only a game out of first place in the AFC North and with first place Baltimore on deck, this game becomes very important. The hottest team in the AFC is Indianapolis as it has won five straight games while winning at the betting window in all of those games as well. If not for a blown penalty against the Eagles, Indianapolis could feasibly be undefeated against the number but nonetheless, the linesmakers have adjusted this number based on their current run. The Colts have dominated during this stretch, outgaining foes by an average of 212.4 ypg and while some won't step in front of that train, we will go against it here. Pittsburgh has a solid situation on its side also as we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against team allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1983. This is an excellent test for the Steelers and we see their first real complete game since winning at Carolina last month. 10* (272) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-26-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Cincinnati Bengals +1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 70 h 15 m | Show |
The Bengals are coming off their worst offensive game in a long time. They gained a mere 135 total yards which was the first time they have been held to fewer than 150 yards of total offense since 2009 in the final game of the regular season. This is now two straight games where Cincinnati has looked completely different than what it looked like at the start of the season and of course, this recent play is what bettors remember the most. On the flip side, Baltimore won its second straight game to move to 5-2 overall with four of those wins coming by 20 or more points. Because of those, the Ravens have a +89 scoring differential which is tops in the NFL. That along with the Bengals recent troubles has given us an exceptional number as the short-term memory of bettors is favoring the contrarian side. The Bengals fall into two outstanding situations. First, we play on home underdogs or pickems that are averaging 5.4 or more yppl, after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against teams that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Baltimore is looking for some payback no doubt however it could not be in a worse spot to try and accomplish that. The Bengals get back to their early season form. 10* (268) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-26-14 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -2.5 | Top | 43-23 | Loss | -125 | 70 h 15 m | Show |
We won with the Jets last Thursday as they played one of their best games of the season despite losing outright against the Patriots. While there is the letdown factor of playing a good game and not winning, the extended time off from last Thursday will help in dealing with that. And even with the effort last week, New York is desperate for a victory. Buffalo meanwhile is coming off a last second victory and that definitely spells letdown following the one point victory over the Vikings. It came with a price though as the Bill lost their top two running backs and now will have to move on with Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown as their lead backs. While the Bills have won twice on the road and could have won a third time at Houston, they are in a tough spot and have not fared well of late, going 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of three points or less while going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after playing a game at home. Additionally, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, playing a team with a winning percentage of less than .250. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1983. Look for the Jets to finally snap their long losing streak with a comfortable win on Sunday. 10* (262) New York Jets |
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10-25-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Francisco Giants OVER 7 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The Royals took the series lead last night with a 3-2 win that saw a battle of pitchers and great defensive efforts. The game stayed below the total, the first in three World Series games thus far, but I think we get back to a higher scoring game tonight as we head toward the back of the rotation on both sides. We have yet to see both offenses put up some big numbers in the same game as Game One it was San Francisco with seven runs and Game Two it was Kansas City with seven runs while Game Three saw neither side produce as there were just 10 combined hits on Friday. San Francisco had gone over in six straight games prior to last night while the Royals were 5-2 to the over in their last seven games and the number remains the same as last night with just a little added juice. Jason Vargas goes for the Royals and he has put together two fine starts in the playoffs after a rough finish to the regular season. Since 2010, he has a 3.92 ERA and has averaged 190 innings per season but Vargas has the 14th-lowest groundball-to-flyball ratio among qualified pitchers. In other words, he's allowed a well-above-average rate of flyballs. He has been solid on the road this season but he is facing an offense that is overdue. San Francisco counters with Ryan Vogelsong and he has gone five straight starts without a quality outing. He has experienced mixed success with the extra rest, holding the Nationals to one run over 5.2 innings in the NLDS but giving up four runs in three innings last time out against the Cardinals. The over is 4-1 in Vogelsong's last five starts against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (907) Kansas City Royals/(908) San Francisco Giants |
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10-25-14 | South Carolina +17.5 v. Auburn | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 76 h 26 m | Show |
It has been a very disappointing season for South Carolina as it came into season ranked in the top ten in the Preseason AP Poll only to get blown out on opening night. It has not gotten much better since then as it has lost two other times and it now just 4-3 on the season after a less than thrilling win over Furman last week. The Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS as favorites but won and covered in their only game as an underdog which came against Georgia. The number was small but that cannot be said about this one as they are catching their biggest number since 2009 when they caught double-digits twice, and covered both. Auburn is coming off its first loss of the season two weeks ago against Mississippi St. The Tigers were able to rebound last season after losing early in the season but I think it is going to be more difficult this time around. Because of the down season South Carolina is having, the Tigers may not be fully focused here and may be more concerned about their trip to Mississippi next week. We are catching great value as this line was -7 when it was first released by the Golden Nugget over the summer and While South Carolina has regressed, I don't think it is that much. The Gamecocks are 96-2 ATS in 11 games under Steve Spurrier after a win by 28 or more points while going 16-6 ATS under Spurrier against teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. 10* (117) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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10-25-14 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 26 m | Show |
We got burned badly last week with Oklahoma St. as TCU was able to bounce back after their loss against Baylor. We will back the Cowboys again this week as we are banking on them doing the bouncing back this week. They were pounded by 33 points, outgained by 418 total yards and they failed to score in double-digits for the first time since 2009. it was the second straight poor effort on the road for Oklahoma St. as it squeaked out a seven-point win over lowly Kansas the previous week but now it heads home where it is 4-0 on the season. The Cowboys have lost here only four times since 2010 and those losses were against Oklahoma (twice, Texas and Nebraska. Losing here to West Virginia is not an option, especially after losing in Morgantown last year so revenge comes into play. The Mountaineers pulled off the huge upset last week against Baylor to improve to 5-2 and crack the AP and USA Today top 25 polls. Those are obviously meaningless and that big win over the Bears provides a great letdown opportunity. Oklahoma St. is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 home games following a loss by 21 or more points while the Mountaineers fall into a negative situation as we play against road teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog of seven or more, in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (192) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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10-25-14 | UAB +23.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 56 m | Show |
Taking big underdogs in college football can be a stress maker if they get behind big and have to force a comeback but the one strategy that should always be in play when backing a large underdog is that it needs to be a team that can put a lot of points on the board, thus keeping the backdoor open at all times. UAB is one of those teams. We played against the Blazers last week and won simply because they were favored when they should not have been. Now they are a huge underdog and while they take a big step up in class, look at the second game of the season when they went to Starkville and lost to Mississippi St. by just 13 points while scoring 34. UAB has been outgained only once all season and that was by a mere three yards as they actually outgained the Bulldogs 548-516. This is also a play against Arkansas and as good as it looked against Alabama two weeks ago, it got stuck in neutral last week against Georgia even though it still won the yardage battle. Look for the Razorbacks to go on cruise control for this one as they are coming off three tough games and have Mississippi St. on deck. Here, we play on road underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 31-7 ATS (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (157) UAB Blazers |
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10-24-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The first two games of the World Series went over the total in Kansas City and even though we are going lower in the pitching rotation, I am expecting a lower scoring game in the first game in San Francisco. Wednesday's game was far from an offensive game with the exception of one inning where the Royals scored five runs and it was the second straight game where the bullpens dominated late which we will see throughout this series. We are also going against a big streak on the Giants side as they have gone over the total in six straight games going back to the NLCS against St. Louis. We are catching a good number also as the under is 37-17-5 in the Royals last 59 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Jeremy Guthrie takes the hill for Kansas City and he has been pitching great, allowing just two runs over his last four starts, including giving up just one run in five innings in his fist postseason start. The under has come through in each of his last three starts and the under is 18-7-2 in Guthrie's last 27 road starts. Kansas City is giving him only 3.5 rpg in his nighttime starts, covering 23 games. San Francisco counters with Tim Hudson who is making his first ever World Series start after 16 seasons and I expect him to pitch like the seasoned veteran he is. He was definitely inconsistent over the latter part of the season but he has been solid during the postseason by allowing just five runs over 13.2 innings. Overall, in 11 postseason starts, he has a 3.42 ERA so his experience will be a big advantage tonight. 10* Under (905) Kansas City Royals/(906) San Francisco Giants |
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10-24-14 | South Florida +10.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
After winning just two games last season, South Florida has surpassed that win total through its first seven games and is coming off a huge confidence boosting victory last week. Trailing Tulsa 27-7 at halftime, the Bulls outscored the Golden Hurricane 31-3 in the second half to produce the biggest come-from-behind victory in school history. Those 31 points were more points scored than any of the previous five complete games and that is big to carry over here. Going back, the Bulls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after trailing their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. The Bearcats are coming off a win over horrid SMU to improve to 3-3. It was a big win as it snapped a three-game skid, all by blowouts, and while it can bring some confidence back, this Cincinnati team is not very good. There is something to be said about coaches getting teams prepared in different situations and one of those is playing on the road. It is safe to say that Bulls head coach Willie Taggart knows how to do it as since his days at Western Kentucky, his teams are an incredible 23-3 ATS on the road. And the home field edge is not great for Cincinnati as the Bearcats are playing all their 2014 home games at Paul Brown Stadium while Nippert Stadium is undergoing an $86-million renovation and expansion project. Cincinnati is playing with revenge from lost at USF last year but this is too many points to be laying and the Bearcats are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. 10* (111) South Florida Bulls |
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10-23-14 | Carolina Hurricanes +140 v. Calgary Flames | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Carolina is the last remaining winless team in the NHL as it is 0-5 to start the season but it has played better than that record shows and the schedule has not set up well. The Hurricanes opened the season with back-to-back games against the Islanders which started red hot, then lost two shootout games before losing to Winnipeg last time out as the Jets were in search of their first home victory. Carolina has been projected to tussle with Buffalo for the worst team in the Eastern Conference but this is a definite winnable game. Calgary is off to a surprisingly good start as it is 4-4 as it was projected to be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference and there is still plenty of time for that to transpire. The Flames are off an overtime loss on Tuesday against Tampa Bay and they are still in search of their first home victory of the season. This price may be telling us that this one is a probable victory but Calgary has no business laying this type of line against any team. The Flames were favored only five times all of last season and only once was it more than -138 which happened to be a game against Buffalo so this price is definitely steep. The Hurricanes are getting healthier as they welcomed back last season's leading scorer Jeff Skinner on Tuesday after he had missed the first four games with a concussion and while he did nothing then, he could be a difference maker tonight. 10* (61) Carolina Hurricanes |
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10-23-14 | San Diego Chargers +7.5 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
The Broncos are coming off one of their best games of the season to make it three straight wins heading into this big AFC West showdown with San Diego. Denver is showing it is still the team to beat and while it sits stop my power rakings, I don't like the spot or the matchup it is involved in. San Diego meanwhile is coming off its second loss of the season as it fell at home by a field goal to the Chiefs. That coupled with the Broncos win gives us the dichotomous results angle which tells us to go opposite of the most recent occurrences. We can take it a step further by going against the streaks of the Broncos three straight cover wins and the Chargers two straight cover losses. The Chargers match up very well with Denver and a lot of that is due to the familiarity of head coach Mike McCoy with the Broncos. Last season, the Chargers beat the Broncos, in large part, by shutting down their offense and they kept the other two games close as well. At times it looked as if McCoy knew their offensive plays as well as they did. In three games against McCoy's game plan, the Broncos averaged 24 ppg, two touchdowns below their season average. We won against San Diego last week but are backing them here expecting a big bounce back and in addition, we play against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. This situation is 141-87 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, San Diego is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog. 10* (103) San Diego Chargers |
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10-23-14 | Miami (Fla) -2.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 54 h 0 m | Show |
Thursday nights in Blacksburg aren't what they used to be when Virginia Tech was a perennial top ten team but this is still a very tough place to play and Miami will be challenged. The Hurricanes should be able to meet that challenge however as they are the better team right now and it isn't really that close. The Hurricanes are coming off a bye week following a demolition of Cincinnati in their most recent game and they match up just as good here. The Hokies are struggling on both sides of the ball. Coming off a game in which it rushed for just 26 yards on 22 carries last Thursday against Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech is shuffling its starting offensive line and that is never a good thing. On the other side, ACC Preseason 1st Team defensive tackle Luther Maddy needs surgery on his injured knee and will miss the remainder of the season, and linebacker Chase Williams, the team's leading tackler, will miss the game after suffering a knee injury at Pittsburgh. The latter is bad news for Virginia Tech that will try and stop Duke Johnson who has 787 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 7.2 ypc. The Hokies were fortunate last year to miss Johnson, who was out the final five games with a broken ankle but they are not as lucky this season. Virginia Tech has been great in this spot as a home underdog over the years but this is a different Virginia Tech team so those past streaks do not mean much in this one. The Hurricanes are part of a solid situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (107) Miami Hurricanes |
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10-22-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals -111 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The Royals finally suffered a playoff defeat after opening the postseason with eight straight victories so we will see for the first time how they will respond. I expect it to be a success as they still have the big home crowd advantage and do not have to deal with one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. The Giants, on the other hand, extended their World Series winning streak, dating back to 2010, to seven. They were able to ride their ace last night and on offense, they got to James Shields early as he is clearly not 100 percent at this point. It will be up to Yordano Ventura to quiet down the San Francisco bats and he should succeed in doing so. He had the Royals' best postseason start to date, limiting the Angels offense to one run on five hits with one walk in seven innings in the American League Division Series. Starting under the lights has been a positive as Ventura has a 2.89 ERA in 24 nighttime starts compared to a 4.74 ERA in eight daytime outings. Jake Peavy will have to follow up Madison Bumgarner which won't be easy as he was nearly unhittable on Tuesday. Peavy has been a great addition to the San Francisco rotation as he had a 2.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 12 regular season starts. He has not been as efficient in the postseason however. And he does not like it here as in seven starts at Kauffman Stadium, he is 1-5 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Ventura has been the much more efficient pitcher as he has thrown 187 pitches in his two playoff starts and has gone 12.2 innings while Peavy has tossed 180 pitches and has lasted only 9.2 innings. 10* (904) Kansas City Royals |
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10-22-14 | Philadelphia Flyers +190 v. Pittsburgh Penguins | Top | 5-3 | Win | 190 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The Flyers are coming off a shutout loss last night in Chicago as they were unable to win a second straight game following their victory on Saturday at Dallas. It has been a very tough start to the season for Philadelphia but it really has not been as bad as the record indicates as two losses came in a shootout and another came by just one goal at Boston. The Flyers were able to respond last season off big losses as they went 5-0 over their last five games off a loss by three or more goals and I expect a big effort tonight as well. This is a fierce rivalry and it is one that the Flyers have had no issues with as they have taken the last four meetings. The Penguins are 3-1 and are one of only two teams in the league that have played only four games thus far. That can be considered a detriment because it kills any positive momentum and they have been off since Saturday's 3-1 victory over the Islanders. Pittsburgh is 3-8 against the money line when playing with three or more days rest. Flyers goaltender Steve Mason allowed four goals last night and is second to last in the NHL with a 3.83 GAA. The good news is that Ray Emery is expected to face the Penguins tonight and in 11 starts against Pittsburgh, he has a 2.86 GAA and is a respectable 6-4-1. Great value here tonight. 10* (3) Philadelphia Flyers |
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10-21-14 | San Francisco Giants -105 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
The question here is to go with the hot team or the hot arm and we will be going with the latter as both teams can be considered to be part of the former group. The Royals have made history by winning their first eight postseason games and making it more remarkable is the fact they had to come from behind against Oakland by a 7-3 deficit to win the Wild Card game. While the Royals haven't lost, San Francisco hasn't been much worse as it has gone 8-2 over its 10 games and playing the opener on the road is no issue as it has already done it twice and won both of the series first games on the highway over Washington and St. Louis. So both teams come in with equal momentum even though both may have stalled somewhat because of the long layoff. We will be backing Madison Bumgarner who has been sensational of late. He has tossed only one non-quality outing since the end of July, a span that includes 13 quality starts. He has been a better road pitcher all season as he has a 1.96 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 20 starts, with the Giants going 15-5 in those games. In his four October starts, Bumgarner owns a 1.42 ERA, a .212 opponents' average and a K:BB ratio of 28:5. on the other side is James Shields who has not been nearly as dominant. He came into the postseason riding a six-game quality start streak but has tossed just one over his three playoff outings. Shields is 3-4 with a 5.19 ERA in his first nine career postseason starts, including a 5.63 ERA in his three starts this year and his home numbers are not nearly as good as he has been on the road, truly the opposite of his counterpart. 10* (901) San Francisco Giants |
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10-21-14 | Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 54 | Top | 40-55 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Two of the three remaining undefeated teams in Sun Belt Conference action take the field tonight with the winner still in the mix for the conference championship and the loser likely out. The reason for that is that neither team plays first place Georgia Southern this season so the winner is likely going to have to win out because of the Panthers remaining schedule. Louisiana won for us last week as the offense got going and I expect that to continue. Louisiana came into the season as the preseason favorite to win the conference and after a rough stretch, it is finally hitting its stride and is still the team to beat with the dynamic Terrance Broadway at quarterback. The Cajuns have put up 34 points in each of the last two games so they are playing at their highest level of the season. Arkansas St. meanwhile has also been hitting its stride on offense, scoring 28 and 52 points in its two conference games as quarterback Fredi Knighten has been outstanding in his own right. Both of these defenses have been playing at a high level but a lot of that has to do with the opposition and both will be taking a big step up in class here. And it is those defenses that is keeping this total low as both has numbers in the 60's in their last game and now they are catching it in the low 50's. Last year saw an O/U of 69 so we are seeing a two-touchdown adjustment for a Louisiana team that has not changed and an Arkansas St. team that does have new personnel but has a new head coach that has an offense mind. Weather will not be an issue. 10* Over (101) Arkansas St. Red Wolves/(102) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns |
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10-20-14 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Edmonton Oilers +155 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 155 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Only two winless teams remain in the NHL and one of those is Edmonton which is 0-4-1 through its first five games with the shootout loss at Vancouver being the only game decided by less than two goals. The Oilers, who are off to their worst start since beginning the 1992-93 campaign with four losses and a tie, have never gone winless in their first six games in franchise history and that is plenty of motivation for tonight right there. Tampa Bay is off to a 3-2 start as it has alternated wins and losses from the beginning, most recently coming off a win over Vancouver on Saturday. It came with a price though as the Lightning will be without their top defenseman Monday as Victor Hedman is likely to miss the remainder of Tampa Bay's roadtrip after suffering an upper-body injury in Saturday's victory at Vancouver. Edmonton was in a similar situation last season when it was riding a four-game skid prior to welcoming the Lightning and skated away with a 5-3 victory. Edmonton is 8-3 against the money line in its last 11 games coming off a home loss against a division rival and it falls into a great situation as we play on underdogs that are coming off two consecutive losses against division rivals, playing with two days rest. This situation is 23-9 (71.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (2) Edmonton Oilers |
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10-20-14 | Houston Texans v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 84 h 41 m | Show |
The Steelers are coming off an embarrassing loss against division rival Cleveland and while they have regressed the last couple years, I expect a big bounceback on Monday night. Pittsburgh is now 3-3 but is just a game and a half behind the Bengals in the AFC North so there is plenty of room to make a move. This is the first of three straight home games for the Steelers and the other two going to be tough ones against the Colts and Ravens so they know they have to take care of business here. Houston put up a solid effort against Indianapolis last Thursday but fell short and it also fell to 3-3 on the season. That record can be considered a mirage however as the Texans have been outgained in all six of their games this season, the last two coming by 126 yards and 124 yards. The lone road win this season came at winless Oakland and going back to last season, they are 2-12 over their last 14 road games. The Steelers have thrived in these spots as they are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as favorites of three points or more coming off a double-digit loss when facing an opponent also off a loss. They have won 15 straight Monday night home games including seven straight wins at Heinz Field since it opened, winning those games by an average of 12.3 ppg. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after having lost two of their last three games while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 30 or more points. 10* (478) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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10-19-14 | Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
We played against the Chargers last week as they went to Oakland laying a big number and barely came back home with the victory. Conventional thinking would be to back San Diego this week coming off a poor effort but we are anything but conventional and we will be fading the Chargers again in their second of three straight divisional games. The third one comes next week in Denver on Thursday so there could definitely be a case of peeking ahead to that one. Additionally, San Diego was in a very hard fought, physical game last week in Oakland while the Chiefs are coming off their bye week which happened to follow a loss at San Francisco prior to that. That put a halt to their two-game winning streak and sitting at 2-3, this is a very pivotal game in order to keep pace within the division. Kansas City failed to win following its bye week a season ago but the situation was different as it went in 9-0 and was playing at Denver. That was just the second loss in 18 games for head coach Andy Reid coming off a two-week break. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 coming off a road loss. This situation is 95-52 ATS (64.6 percent) since 1983. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (469) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-19-14 | Edmonton Eskimos v. Saskatchewan Roughriders +4 | Top | 24-19 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 6 m | Show |
We played on Saskatchewan last week and lost as it was pounded by Montreal. While the quarterback situation has been a concern since Darian Durant went down for the season, the Roughriders gameplan last week didn't go as planned as they threw the ball only 18 times and despite an absolutely horrid game from Seth Doege the previous week, he still got playing time. Now the plan has changed again and for the good as 17-year veteran Kerry Joseph looks like he will get the start on Sunday. The Roughriders have lost three straight games and have failed to cover their last five games which is certainly helping with this number. Three games back, they were at Edmonton and were getting four points and now they are getting close to that same amount at home. Saskatchewan lost that game 24-0 so it is out for some redemption. Edmonton secured a playoff spot last week but the Roughriders are just a game behind with still two meetings left, both of which are here. Despite the loss last week, Saskatchewan also clinched a playoff spot but now the goal is to move up. The Roughriders are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after four or more consecutive losses against the spread and they fall into a fantastic situation where we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (498) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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10-19-14 | Cleveland Browns v. Jacksonville Jaguars +6 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 35 m | Show |
The Jaguars came oh so close to their first win of the season last week as they fought Tennessee to the end only to lose by two points. The good news for Jacksonville backers is that it got its first cover of the season which is a move in the right direction in trying to attain its first outright victory. While the Jaguars were unable to cover their first two home games, they are getting the same number this week as they were in those first two games but are the Browns really that good to be laying this type of number? I don't think so. Cleveland is coming off a big win over the Steelers but it won the yardage battle by only nine total yards so the game was a lot closer than the score indicated. The Browns are playing good but they have not been favored by this much on the road since they came back to Cleveland back in 1999, a span of 122 games. So the fact the Browns are being asked to lay this number coming off a big divisional win is a little too much. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams who give up 24 or more ppg and it falls into a negative situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 31-10 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (458) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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10-19-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 34 m | Show |
It is a well known fact that New Orleans struggles on the road as it has lost all three games on the road this season but the situation is different this week. The Saints were favored in three of those road games and now they are getting points in Detroit which is certainly more than fair as linesmakers are making the proper adjustment. New Orleans is in a very good spot though as it matches up well against the Lions and the indoor atmosphere certainly will not hurt. Detroit won at Minnesota last week to improve to 4-2 on the season ad remain in a first place tie with Green Bay in the NFC North. While the defense has been playing at a very high level, the offense is not doing much and it is no coincidence. The big edge here for New Orleans is in fact its defense as it will be facing a horrendous offensive line that Detroit possesses. The Saints have struggled on defense but they could be in store for a big turnaround game. Making matters worse for the Lions is the fact that they are 4-19 ATS in their last 23 games against team allowing 27 or more ppg. Additionally, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two consecutive games where they forced one or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (467) New Orleans Saints |
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10-18-14 | Hawaii v. San Diego State -7.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 86 h 22 m | Show |
San Diego St. is 3-3 on the season and has yet to win consecutive games but this a great spot to finally begin a winning streak. The Aztecs have been a great second half team the last two years as they started 3-3 in both 2012 and 2013 and went on to go 10-2 after the midway point in those season and we can expect more of the same this season. A big reason is the fact they returned only 10 starters from last season so it has taken some time for the chemistry to come around and they are coming off their most dominating game of the season, outgaining New Mexico by 204 total yards. Hawaii is also coming off a win and its most dominating game of the season, outgaining Wyoming by 191 total yards. But that was at home. The road and Hawaii mix like oil and vinegar as it has lost 15 consecutive games off the island and while it has covered seven of those games, the number makes the difference. Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in those games when getting only single digits and I feel this spread is way too low as well. The Warriors have put up only 26 points in their two road games combined while San Diego St. is allowing just 12 ppg at home. San Diego St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. 10* (406) San Diego St. Aztecs |
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10-18-14 | Philadelphia Flyers +148 v. Dallas Stars | Top | 6-5 | Win | 148 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
In hockey, part of the moneyline makeup is "What have you done for me lately?" as gamblers have very short-term memories. In the case of the Flyers, the answer to that question is absolutely nothing. They are off to a 0-4 start to the season but they have been better than that record shows which is not being reflected in this line. They suffered a one goal loss at Boston in their season opener and since then they have dropped back-to-back games by way of a shootout. While the Bruins have struggled since then, the other three losses have come against teams a combined 11-3. We played on Dallas on Tuesday in Columbus and won and the Stars then went on to Pittsburgh and won on Thursday in a crazy finish where they scored two goals in the final three minutes including the game winner with three seconds left at the start of a power play. Dallas lost its lone game at home, albeit close and against a very strong Chicago team but it is overpriced in this spot because of the "recent" logs on both sides. The Flyers are off to their worst start since 2008-09 and hitting the road is probably the best thing possible right now. Philadelphia falls into a great underdog situation as we play against teams against the moneyline after allowing two goals or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after losing two consecutive games in overtime. This situation is 51-29 (63.8 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Dallas is 1-7 in its last eight home games after scoring three goals or more in two straight games. 10* (15) Philadelphia Flyers |
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10-18-14 | Miami (OH) v. Northern Illinois -11 | Top | 41-51 | Loss | -105 | 81 h 3 m | Show |
We played against Northern Illinois last week and it paid off as the Huskies lost outright against Central Michigan as more than a touchdown underdog. It was mentioned that they are not the same team as in years past and continue to struggle as the offense has been unable to generate points but I think that finally changes here. Because of the struggles, we get to buy Northern Illinois low and feel the spot is ideal this week. Miami is coming off a loss at Akron last week which came after its first win of the season against Massachusetts prior to that. That victory actually snapped a 21-game losing streak so while it was big to end the enormous slide, clearly little momentum was gained from it. Northern Illinois has lost consecutive regular season games only once since 2010, going 4-1 following a defeat and the one time it did lose a back-to-back, the second came against Wisconsin. Miami s 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off a road cover where it lost as an underdog and we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after having lost four or five out of their last six games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (318) Northern Illinois Huskies |
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10-18-14 | UAB v. Middle Tennessee State +1.5 | Top | 22-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 32 m | Show |
Here is another situation, like Thursday, where I think the wrong team is favored and it is largely based on recent results which is what most gamblers usually only remember. Middle Tennessee is coming off a blowout loss against Marshall which has been the case for most teams playing the Thundering Herd and that snapped its two-game winning streak. Meanwhile, UAB defeated North Texas by 35 points but was actually outgained by the Mean Green. The Blazers took advantage of five turnovers, three of which were directly returned for touchdowns. That victory, along with the Middle Tennessee loss to Marshall, is what is driving this line and it is a rarity for UAB to be favored on the road as it has happened only six times the last eight years. Coming back home is big for the Blue Raiders as they are 3-0 here this season and are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. Additionally, Middle Tennessee has won seven of its last nine games after a loss while going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. On the other side, UAB is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. Middle Tennessee has a chance to improve to 4-1 in the conference and can ill afford a loss in a winnable game to keep bowl hopes alive. 10* (366) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders |
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10-18-14 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -11.5 | Top | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 80 h 32 m | Show |
We made a bad call on Texas A&M last week as we should have stuck to our guns from the previous week after saying the Aggies have not defeated any team of note with arguably the best win coming against Arkansas. The season is starting to slip away already and it can only get worse here as the situation could not be worse for Texas A&M heading into a hornets nest. Alabama is not the same Alabama we are accustomed to, at least that is what we are hearing from the talking heads but I have to disagree with that assessment. The Crimson Tide have struggled away from home as it was in a tight battle against West Virginia in the Georgia Dome, lost at Mississippi and then won at Arkansas by just one point. They have dominated at home however, winning by a combined 135-33 and while this game will be the biggest test, I expect the Tide to pass with flying colors as a return home is just what they need. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg while going 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games after gaining 450 or more ypg in three straight games. Alabama meanwhile is 7-1 ATS in its last eight SEC games against teams off a double-digit loss. 10* (370) Alabama Crimson Tide |
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10-17-14 | Nashville Predators v. Winnipeg Jets -120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
We are 10 days into the season and we catch a good situation here while this is also the last time we will see it this season. We are seeing a matchup where Winnipeg is playing its first home game of the season while Nashville is playing its first road game of the season and the teams are possessing opposite records. The Jets opened the season with a win at Arizona but have dropped two straight since then to San Jose and Los Angeles but those are two of the best teams in the Western Conference. The Predators meanwhile are coming off a loss in their last game in a shootout against Calgary but won their first two games before that and now hit the road for the first time. Nashville heads to Chicago tomorrow night so there is the chance of a lookahead there which is to our advantage if nothing else. Also, it is still undetermined if goaltender Pekka Rinne goes tonight or will be rested until tomorrow. We are betting on him playing but if he sits, that only helps us. Jets goaltender Ondrej Pavelec was pretty bad last season, allowing a 2.81 GAA but so far this season, that number is a much improved 2.28. Additionally, he has a 2.12 GAA and .932 save percentage in seven starts against Nashville. I like a bounce back for Winnipeg which is 16-8 in its last 24 games after a loss by three goals or more in their previous game. 10* (58) Winnipeg Jets |
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10-16-14 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -120 | 38 h 53 m | Show |
Rankings are based on opinions from some people who should not even be giving opinions. That is the case here for Utah and taking nothing away from the Utes and their 4-1 record, but they should not be ranked. One win came against Idaho St. of the FCS, another case against Fresno St. which is having a very disappointing season. The other two victories would have been considered marquee victories early in the season but Michigan and UCLA have been majors busts this season. The Utes have been outgained the last three games and that is a major concern. Oregon St. comes in with an identical 4-1 record with the lone loss coming at USC in blowout fashion. While the Beavers schedule has been nothing special either, it needs to be noted that they have won the yardage battle in their four victories, and by a lot. Oregon St. is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games coming off a conference win by seven points or less while going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games with a line between +3 and -3 coming off a bye. Additionally, we play against road favorites that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after a win by six or less points. This situation is 30-7 ATS (81.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (308) Oregon St. Beavers |
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10-16-14 | NY Jets +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show |
The Jets have to cover at some point and this looks like the best spot for it to happen. We got puked on last week when Geno Smith threw a pick six in the waning seconds to blow the cover for us against Denver and while it has been a rough season for New York with five straight losses, this is a game they will be sky high for. The Patriots were thought to be done a few short weeks ago after getting blown out by Kansas City but now they are once again being praised as being back. I don't think they were ever gone but I also do not think they are as good as some do think and they should not be laying this many points to a division rival, no matter the record differentials. While it may not seem like it, the Jets defense is still pretty good as they are ranked sixth overall but has been hurt by getting pinned deep in their own end of the field several times. The Jets fall into a great contrarian situation as we play on road underdogs or pickems with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Patriots are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game while going 2-9 ATS since 2012 as a favorite of 8 or more points during the regular season. 10* (303) New York Jets |
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10-16-14 | St. Louis Cardinals +134 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
While we went against the Orioles in a must win game last night, we will be backing the Cardinals which need a victory or their season is done. The situation is not as dire for St. Louis being down 3-1 but needless to say, it needs a big performance and facing the Giants ace will not be easy. That being said, we are getting a great price on the Cardinals because of it. Adam Wainwright has not been the ace during the playoffs that the Cardinals needed but this is a great chance for redemption. He was aware of mechanical problems even before the end of the Giants' 3-0 win in Game One of this NLCS, after Wainwright and Cardinals catcher A.J. Pierzynski examined video of his outing. Prior to that, the Dodgers lit him up but he has a 3.18 ERA in seven career appearances in San Francisco, six as a starter. One of his best efforts of the season came at AT&T Park on July 2, when he shut out the Giants over 7.2 innings on four hits. Madison Bumgarner was great against Wainwright in the opener as he went 7.2 innings without allowing a run. Having him back home could be a good thing though as in 18 road starts, he posted a 2.22 ERA while in 15 home starts, he posted a 4.03 ERA. Pitching at home against the Cardinals has been a nightmare as he has a 7.88 ERA over three starts. The Giants are 5-12 in Bumgarner's last 17 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 while the Cardinals are 10-2 in their last 12 games against left-handed starters. 10* (969) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-16-14 | New Jersey Devils v. Washington Capitals -123 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
We are catching a relatively short price with the Capitals here in what is a great spot for them tonight on home ice. Washington is off to a 1-0-2 start to the season with both losses coming by way of a shootout and both coming at home. The Capitals should be hungry to earn their first victory at the Verizon Center and they have not gone winless in their first three on home ice since 1983-84. New Jersey meanwhile is off to a perfect 3-0 start with all of those wins coming away from home and this game concludes its season opening four-game roadtrip. The fact that the early streak has started on the road is even more of a surprise considering the Devils opened 0-5-2 away from home last season and haven't won four straight on the road since a seven-game run Jan. 11-Feb. 21, 2012. The Devils are 7-27 in their last 34 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400 while going 1-10 in their last 11 road games after playing two consecutive road games. Washington falls into an excellent situation as we play against road underdogs of +100 to +150 against the money line after allowing two goals or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after allowing six goals or more. This situation is 56-17 (76.7 percent) since 1996. This includes a 13-2 record over the last five seasons. 10* (6) Washington Capitals |
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10-15-14 | Boston Bruins v. Detroit Red Wings OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
We are catching the perfect contrarian angle for this game and we are going in with our first total release in the NHL this season. This is the second meeting of the season between Boston and Detroit with the Red Wings taking the first matchup in this building 2-1 thus getting their revenge from being swept in the playoffs last season. The low scoring game is what we are concerned with though as that was the second of four straight unders for the Bruins to open the season while in the case of Detroit, it has gone under in both of its games this season as well. That 6-0 combined record to the over is already giving us value as that first meeting had a total of 5.5 and a half-goal drop this time around is huge in the game of hockey. While many will be wanting to ride those streaks, we will be going the opposite and it is the Bruins that really make this one worth the big play. Boston is 7-0 to the over in its last seven games after scoring one goal or less in three straight games and they fall into a great league-wide situation, as does Detroit, where we play the over involving home teams after scoring two goals or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight games where four or fewer total goals were scored. This situation is 66-36 (64.7 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (53) Boston Bruins/(54) Detroit Red Wings |
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10-15-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals -120 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
While this is considered a must win for the Orioles, teams in this situation rarely come through with the must win. Baltimore is down 3-0 in the ALCS and only once has a team come back from a 3-0 deficit to win. Making it to a Game Five has been a rarity as well as there have been 33 previous best-of-seven postseason series in which a team had a 3-0 lead and 27 of those ended in a sweep. The win last night for the Royals may have taken the wind right out of the Baltimore sails. Kansas City has yet to lose in the postseason, winning the first seven games this year and it turns to Jason Vargas to keep the streak going. While his recent numbers have been pretty poor, we only need to look at the last start which came against the Angels in the opener of the ALDS and set the tone for the Royals as he allowed two runs in six innings in the 3-2 victory. He had eight days off then and now he has 13 days of rest to work with and word is that his side sessions have been sharp. Vargas has a 1.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in eight starts against the Orioles and the Royals are 4-1 in Vargas' last five starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Miguel Gonzalez looks to keep hope alive for the Orioles and he too is working on extended rest. He has been solid all season but it will be hard to forget his lone start in Kansas City in which he allowed six runs in just 4.2 innings. The end of the road comes early for Baltimore. 10* (968) Kansas City Royals |
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10-14-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
The first two games of this series have gone over the total and we will be going the opposite direction here. Because we are at the middle of the rotation with the starters, the total has increased slightly so while it is a justifiable move based on that, I do not think the change in venue is being taken into consideration nearly enough. While the first two games played in Kansas City in the postseason have gone over the total, this has been a low scoring park of late with 12 of the previous 19 games having seven or fewer runs scored. It has been a long layoff for Jeremy Guthrie who has not started since September 26th but after tossing 202.2 innings during the season, the added rest is huge. He recently took part in a simulated game, and Royals manager Ned Yost said there's "no concern" about the long layoff. He will be facing his former team for the fifth time and he has been successful in the past, posting a 2.67 ERA in 27 innings. The under is 10-4-1 in Guthrie's last 15 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. The Orioles counter with Wei-Yin Chen who was very solid all season with a 3.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 32 starts and those numbers are even better on the road. Though Chen struggled in his AL Division Series start against the Tigers, it is good that the first playoff start is done with. He has pitched well in Kansas City, where he is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two career starts and the under is 7-1 over his last eight road starts. 10* Under (963) Baltimore Orioles/(964) Kansas City Royals |
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10-14-14 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Texas State | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Louisiana was the preseason pick to win the Sun Belt Conference by most and sitting at 1-0, it is certainly in the mix. The Cajuns will try to keep pace with Georgia Southern which is already off to a 4-0 start and this could be the statement game they need. They have yet to cover a game against an FBS opponent, most recently sneaking by Georgia St. by three points as a 16-point favorite. Back-to-back blowout losses on the road against Mississippi and Boise St. preceded that which is a big reason they are underdogs in this spot. Texas St. also comes in at 1-0 in the conference following its win over Idaho in its last game. The Vandals are arguably the worst team in the FBS and are 0-6 yet the Bobcats had a tough time, winning by just five points and getting outgained by 57 yards. They have actually been outgained by all four FBS opponents so despite the 2-2 record, things seem to be skewed. Louisiana is the most experienced team in the conference on both sides of the ball and that will show tonight. The Cajuns are is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games versus teams averaging 425 or more ypg while going 6-0 ATS in their last six road games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (301) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns |
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10-14-14 | Dallas Stars +112 v. Columbus Blue Jackets | Top | 4-2 | Win | 112 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
With the exception of Edmonton, Dallas is the lone team left in the Western Conference that has yet to win a game. The Stars are 0-1-1 following a home shootout loss against Chicago and then losing at Nashville on Tuesday. While the task will not be easy tonight, I like the chances of Dallas picking up its first win of the season. Columbus meanwhile is 2-0 for just the second time ever and it has never started a season 3-0. The Blue Jackets are coming off a big 5-2 win over the Rangers in their last game but they had the luxury of not having to face goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. Tonight, Dallas goes back to goaltender Kari Lehtonen, who was rested after making 24 saves against Chicago and he brings in a 1.91 GAA in 11 career starts against Columbus. Dallas falls into a great situation as we play on road underdogs of +100 to +150 off two consecutive losses against division rivals, playing with two days rest. This situation is 29-12 (70.7 percent) since 1997. Additionally, Dallas is 10-3 in its last 13 games following two straight divisional losses while going 12-4 in its last 16 games after scoring two goals or less in two straight games. Going back, the Blue Jackets are 4-11 in their last 15 games following a win. 10* (7) Dallas Stars |
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10-13-14 | Saskatchewan Roughriders +3.5 v. Montreal Alouettes | Top | 9-40 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 14 m | Show |
We played against Saskatchewan last week as the Roughriders fell behind 24-0 only to tie it but eventually fell to Calgary. This week we will be backing them in what is a good position to get back on track and into the playoff mix. Saskatchewan, the defending Grey Cup Champion, at one point was the hottest team in the league with a seven-game winning streak, but since it has dropped two in a row and three of the last four. The Roughriders are now three games out of first place in the West Division but are tied for second place. This is a big game considering this is the last game against a team with a losing record. After winning just once in the first eight games, Montreal has turned its season around as it has managed to post back-to-back victories while winning four of its last five games. Because the East Division is so weak, the Alouettes and Argonauts are just two points behind the Tiger-Cats for first place. As mentioned last week, the quarterback situation in Saskatchewan has been a mess but this week we should see some better play from the start. Seth Doege started last week and was 3-9 with three interceptions before getting pulled in favor of Tino Sunseri who went 16-19 for 289 yards and a touchdown. It is safe to say he will be getting the start this week although it has not yet been announced. Montreal has been winning ugly as it has been outgained in three of its last four games and by an average of 90 ypg. The Alouettes are just 2-7 against the West Division, compared to 3-1 against the East Division, while the Roughriders are 5-2 against the East Division. 10* (295) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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10-12-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
We are getting some value on this total based on recent results from both sides. Last night, Game One of this series stayed under the number which was not a huge surprise with the aces of both teams on the hill in Adam Wainwright and Madison Bumgarner. Tonight we are getting a total that is just a half-run higher despite the dropoff in starting pitching and that is due to the playoff runs of each team. After going over in their Wild Card game against the Pirates, the Giants have gone under in five straight games, scoring no more than three runs in any of those five contests. St. Louis meanwhile went over the total in Game One against the Dodgers in the NLDS but has since stayed under the number in its last four games, also scoring no more than three runs in any of those last four games. I think we are due to see one, if not both, offenses finally get going. Jake Peavy gets the call for San Francisco and he has been an awesome addition to the rotation since coming over from Boston. He has allowed two runs or less in 10 straight starts but most of those games came against some mediocre offenses and while the Cardinals have been shut down in the postseason, they still have the best bats in baseball. On the flip side, Lance Lynn is also on a great run as he has tossed 10 straight quality outings and is a third of an inning away from that streak being 17 straight. The Giants have been his nemesis however and it would not be surprising to see that quality outing streak end here. The contrarian total gets it done tonight. 10* Over (957) San Francisco Giants/(958) St. Louis Cardinals |
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10-12-14 | Toronto Maple Leafs +155 v. NY Rangers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 155 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Both Toronto and New York are off identical 5-2 losses last night so each team will be out to make up for those defeats. While the Rangers are home for the first time this season and the Maple Leafs are on the road for the first time this season, we are going opposite of what this line is telling us and that is a likely Rangers victory. New York was a better team on the road than it was at home last season as it generated 52 points on the highway compared to 44 points at MSG and in the process it lost a lot of profits here based on the big lines it was being favored in a lot of the times. The Maple Leafs are 0-2 with both losses coming at home and while they were not great on the road last season, getting out of town could be a very good thing. They will be out to avoid their worst three-game start in 24 years in addition to looking past their 2-12 record to end last season that cost them a playoff spot. After allowing nine goals in the first two games, Jonathan Bernier will be given the night off and James Reimer will start between the pipes. Look for Toronto to produce its first win of the season while we get it at a big price. 10* (1) Toronto Maple Leafs |
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10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +7.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 76 h 25 m | Show |
Many predicted San Diego to be a sleeper team in the NFL this season and so far it is living up to expectations. If for not blowing an 11-point lead in Arizona opening weekend, the Chargers would be 5-0 right now and the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL. The one thing they are undefeated at is their record against the number, going a perfect 5-0 ATS and they are the only team that has yet to fail on a cover this year. San Diego cruised to a win over the Jets last Sunday and it could not have looked better as it outgained New York 439-151 and that makes this the perfect time to go against the Chargers especially with the Chiefs on deck. Oakland had a week off which came at a perfect time and it also will be breaking in a new coach after Dennis Allen was hired and replace by interim coach Tony Soprano. The Raiders got thumped in London in their last game but that works in their favor here as in the eight previous games played across the pond, there have been five teams that lost by more than a touchdown prior to this year and all five of those teams covered their next game with four winning outright and the other resulting in the Rams/49ers tie back in 2012. this is just the second home game of the season for Oakland and despite losing its first against Houston, it outgained the Texans by 37 total yards. Great spot here for the Raiders. 10* (270) Oakland Raiders |
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10-12-14 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +3 | Top | 37-22 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 20 m | Show |
As fast as we jumped on the Patriots last week following their horrible performance at Kansas City two weeks ago, we will jump off them just as fast this week following their great performance this past Sunday night against the Bengals. Everyone had them written off but now it seems everyone has jumped back on them and this line is a reaction to that. While I don't think they were as bad as they looked in Kansas City, I don't think they are as good as they looked last week and the Bengals just did not show up. Now New England goes into the rare situation of going from a home underdog to a road favorite within the span of a week and that plays into a great situation explained at the end. The Bills are getting no credit here but coming off a come-from-behind win at Detroit has this team brimming with confidence as it tries to knock off its division rival for the first time since 2011, a span of five straight losses. The Bills could feasibly be 4-1 if not for giving a game away at Houston and they are coming in here with a chip on their should due to the lack of respect. Here we play against divisional road favorites that are coming off a win as a home underdog going up against teams coming off a win. This situation is 14-3 ATS (82.4 percent) since 1980. The Patriots simply cannot be trusted on the road anymore as they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 highway games. 10* (266) Buffalo Bills |
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10-12-14 | Denver Broncos v. NY Jets +11 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 19 m | Show |
We made a horrible call on the Jets last week in San Diego as they were humiliated 31-0. the mustered a mere 151 yards of total offense and were outgained by 288 yards in the process. New York is now 1-4 on the season and it has yet to cover a game so we knew this line would be big coming in but it has now gotten out of control. While Denver is considered the best team in the AFC, San Diego is no longer far behind which makes this line completely inaccurate. If this game were being played in Denver, the Broncos would be roughly a 16-point favorite and last week the Chargers were favored by seven points which states that Denver is nine points better than San Diego? I don't think so. This line is purely an overreaction to last week and the short-term memory that gamblers have. The Broncos are coming off a near perfect performance against Arizona last week and that is also being taken into consideration with this number. That was a big bounce back game for Denver which was coming off a loss in Seattle preceding its bye so you knew they were going to come out strong. With home games against San Francisco and San Diego on deck, being fully focused here is very unlikely. Denver is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win while New York 6-2 ATS in its last eight games after scoring less than 15 points. 10* (252) New York Jets |
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10-11-14 | Ole Miss v. Texas A&M -3 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 19 m | Show |
We played against Texas A&M last week as it suffered its first loss of the season at Mississippi St. that was a tough spot for the Aggies as it was their first true test of the season and while they failed, I expect them to bounce back this week. A big factor here is the timing of this game as it is a night start at College Station which makes for an even bigger atmosphere. Typically with a big game on deck, we would not go this route but even with a game at Alabama next Saturday, Texas A&M knows it needs to bounce back here. Speaking of Alabama, the Rebels are coming off a huge upset of the Crimson Tide last Saturday to move to 5-0 on the season. They jumped all the way from 11th in the nation into a tie for 3rd with Mississippi St. in the AP Poll and that is a pretty lofty move. That isn't saying it wasn't well deserved because of the upset but I don't think this team is a top five team at the time. Add to the fact the letdown factor and Mississippi should be in ripe shape for its first loss. The Aggies are playing their first true hole game since September 13th which only adds to the edge they will have here. Texas A&M will be ready and after winning the last two meetings the last two years in Mississippi by three points each, the Aggies get the job done at home is easier fashion by what many think will be an upset but that is not the case. 10* (188) Texas A&M Aggies |
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10-11-14 | Penn State v. Michigan -1 | Top | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 118 h 4 m | Show |
We snuck out a win with Michigan last week as it stayed within the number but still suffered its third straight loss to fall to 2-4 on the season. The time has come where the Wolverines are in a true must win scenario or the season will be ready to spiral downhill quickly as they are on the cusp on that right now. I like the fact they have lost two straight home games as it should certainly have them stoked to get a win plus it gives us some excellent value with the line. They will also be out for revenge from last year's overtime loss almost a year ago to the day which was the fourth straight loss in this series. Penn St. was off last week as it tried to regroup from its 23-point loss at home against Northwestern two weeks ago and the bye definitely came art the right time I just don't know how much it cam help. This is the first road game in a month for the Nittany Lions and while they did win at Rutgers where Michigan just lost, it was far from dominating as it was a game that could have gone either way. Michigan has rival Michigan St. on deck but with everything at stake, that matters little especially considering the Wolverines will be entering their first bye week of the season. The Wolverines are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record and they add to that with a possible season saving win on Saturday. 10* (194) Michigan Wolverines |
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10-11-14 | Montreal Canadiens v. Philadelphia Flyers -104 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a good spot for the Flyer to bounce back and grab their first victory of the season. Philadelphia lost its season opener at Boston on a late goal and that seemed to affect the Flyers as they went out the next night and put up a dud, losing 6-4 in their home opener against New Jersey. Goalie Steve Mason arguably should not have been in there in the second of a back-to-back set as he allowed five goals. He did that only once all of last season and he did in fact rebound with a win in his next game. Montreal meanwhile is off to the exact opposite start as it is 2-0 with wins over Toronto and Washington and neither came easy, the former by one goal and the latter by way of a shootout. Both came on the road and they could not be facing a worst team in the early stages of the season with the Flyers being 0-2 and hungry for a victory. The home team won all three meetings last season while Montreal has won just three times in the last 16 meetings in Philadelphia. 10* (66) Philadelphia Flyers |
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10-11-14 | Central Michigan +11 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 116 h 4 m | Show |
The Chippewas picked up a big win last time out as they crushed Ball St. by 18 points and while that margin of victory may not seem huge, they fact they outgained the Bobcats by 280 total yards was dominating. It was the second game that running back Thomas Rawls and wide receiver Titus Davis were back in the lineup and it made a huge difference as the two accounted for 426 of their 467 total yards. I expect them to use that game as a momentum boost to try and snap their two-game losing streak against the Huskies. This line may seem low to some for Northern Illinois considering it was favored by 26 points last week against Kent St. and last season, it was favored by 14.5 points at Central Michigan but this line is too big in my opinion. This is not the same Huskies team we are used to as the loss of quarterback Jordan Lynch is still being felt. The offense has not been clicking like it used to and scoring only 17 points last week against the Golden Flashes is a big concern. After defeating Presbyterian out of the FCS, the Huskies have struggled in all of their other games including a win against UNLV that needed a late touchdown to pull away. They are outgaining FBS opponent by just 55 yards total on the season. Momentum is not on their side as the Huskies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while the Chippewas are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (177) Central Michigan Chippewas |
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10-11-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Baltimore Orioles -118 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
After losing the opener of this series last night in extra innings, this has turned into a must win game for the Orioles in order to tie up the series. Baltimore battled back from a 4-0 deficit to tie the game in the sixth inning before allowing three runs in the 10th inning on a pair of homeruns. Kansas City has yet to lose in the postseason which is definitely a surprise to many. The Royals came back from a 7-3 deficit to defeat Oakland in the Wild Card game before sweeping the Angels in three games in the ALDS. The offense has been surprisingly potent as they are averaging 6.4 rpg but I think that gets slowed down tonight. Bud Norris pitched a gem in his first postseason start as he allowed just two hits and no runs in the clinching game of the ALDS against the Tigers. He has not allowed a run in three of his last four outings and he has been sensational at home, posting a 2.44 ERA in 13 starts with the Orioles going 10-3 in those games. Yordano Ventura bounced back from his poor relief effort against the A's to shut down the Angels in the ALDS as he allowed just one run over seven innings. He put together a decent road résumé but his 1.34 WHIP on the highway is a big concern. The Orioles are 43-20 in their last 63 games following a loss while going 6-0 in Norris' last six starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (956) Baltimore Orioles |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 115 h 33 m | Show |
It has been a very rough stretch for North Carolina as it has lost its last three games by a combined 61 points and it has not been kind to its backers as it has yet to cover a game this season. The Tar Heels are 0-5 against the number counting their game against Liberty of the FCS and they definitely are not getting much support here. The opportunity here though sets up very well for a bounceback even though they are facing their toughest opponent of the season. Notre Dame is coming off a huge win over Stanford as it scored the game winning touchdown with just one minute left to move to 5-0, moving it into 6th place in the most recent AP Poll. If that isn't a spot for a letdown, nothing is and making matters even tougher this week is that the Irish travel to top ranked Florida St. next week so they are in a letdown/lookahead scenario this week. The defense has been outstanding as Notre Dame has yet to allow more than 17 points but the Tar Heel have the ability to score a lot and this could be the one game that Notre Dame won't be 100 percent vested. The Tar Heels are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (175) North Carolina Tar Heels |
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10-10-14 | San Diego State v. New Mexico OVER 46 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -114 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
The quarterback situation for both San Diego St. and New Mexico is not good as both starters are likely out for this one but that actually helps us with this total. Aztecs quarterback Quinn Kaehler missed the last game against Fresno St. and the offense suffered as they put up just 270 total yards as backup Nick Bawden had a horrific game. The extra prep time going into this one can only help and the opponent is a benefit as well. The fact that New Mexico allowed just nine points last week against UTSA can be considered an anomaly as prior to that, the Lobos had allowed at least 31 points in each of their first four games. The defense is still a very porous unit overall as they are ranked 116th in total defense, allowing a whopping 504.2 ypg while giving up 33.6 ppg. On the other side, Lobos quarterback Cole Gautsche came back after missing significant time only to leave once again. Backup Lamar Jordan was efficient once again but he will not be asked to win as the triple-option pistol ground attack is ranked fourth nationally with an average of 322.4 ypg on the ground. San Diego St. has been decent on defense but it is skewed by its first game against Northern Arizona of the FCS when it allowed just 312 yards and seven points. This is by far the lowest total each team has seen this season and while the quarterback situation is aiding that, the Aztecs have gone under is every game while New Mexico has gone under in two straight so we are getting value based on that as well. 10* Over (107) San Diego St. Aztecs/(108) New Mexico Lobos |
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10-10-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
The ALCS is not the matchup everyone was expecting and what it lacks in star quality, it makes up for in true baseball talent. The Royals and Orioles got here in different styles but one thing that is consistent and that is the pitching. Kansas City allowed a total of six runs over the three games against the potent Angels offense while Baltimore allowed a total of 10 runs in its three-game sweep of the powerful Tigers lineup. As we open this series at the top of the rotation for both sides, I expect the pitching to reign supreme once again. James Shields get the ball for the Royals and he was solid in his lone start in the ALDS against Los Angeles as he allowed just two runs over six innings in the clinching third game. That was in Kansas City and he has actually been much better on the road as he went 10-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 19 starts and while the majority of those games went over, that was due to great run support which I don't see happening tonight. That is because Chris Tillman has been just as solid, posting a 2.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 19 home starts. These two pitching faces the opposing teams a total of three times this season and allowed a grand total of just five runs. The under is 37-17-5 in the Royals last 59 games as an underdog of +110 to +150 while going under in Shields last four games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Under is 17-8-1 in the Orioles last 26 home games against teams with a winning road record while going under in 18 of Tillman's last 26 home starts against teams with a winning record. The last four meetings in this season series took place back in May and while those results are meaningless now, the fact that all four of those games had totals of seven shows we have value here as typical playoff over/under numbers tend to reduce quite a bit. 10* Under (951) Kansas City Royals/(952) Baltimore Orioles |
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10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts -2.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
We do not typically lay points on the road in the NFL but we are making the exception here as we are catching a line that is very favorable. The Colts enter Thursday night riding a three-game winning streak after starting the season 0-2 and they can put some ground between them and the rest of the division with a victory tonight. The two losses came against Philadelphia and Denver, both of which have just one loss and they actually ended up outgaining the Broncos. That is part of a big reasoning for playing Indianapolis here. It has outgained four of its five opponents with the last three coming by 185, 237 and 135 yards and overall, the average margin is +97.4 ypg. In contrast, the Texans have not outgained a single opponent this season and they have been outgained by an average of 47.6 ypg which isn't a huge amount but the fact they have not been on the plus side in the stats is a huge concern. The schedules have not been the reasoning either as Houston has played the 29th ranked schedule while the Colts have played the 30th ranked slate. The difference has been turnovers for the Texans as they have 12 takeaways and their turnover percentage is ranked third in the NFL. After committing five turnovers in the first four games, the Colts had four last week so that can be chalked up as an anomaly. We will take our chances with the much better quarterback and the undoubtedly better 3-2 team here. 10* (101) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-09-14 | NY Rangers +136 v. St Louis Blues | Top | 3-2 | Win | 136 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The Rangers put together a surprising season to most as after a 3-6 start, they made it through the Eastern Conference playoffs with a chance to end their 20-year Stanley Cup drought but fell in five games to the Kings, three of those losses coming in overtime. Expectations are now high in New York and it is important to get off to a strong start. The line we are getting here is solid as the Rangers had the best road record in the Eastern Conference last season. St. Louis is coming off another disappointing season despite things looking good toward the end of the season. However, the Blues went on to lose their final six regular season games and have been eliminated in the opening round of the playoffs in each of the past two seasons to the defending Cup champion, despite holding 2-0 series leads. This one has a good chance at coming down to the netminders with the Rangers being in good shape. Henrik Lundqvist was 33-24-5 with a 2.36 GAA last season before making at least 40 saves in three Stanley Cup final games. On the other side, Brian Elliott takes over as the top goaltender after Ryan Miller's departure. Elliott, who got into 31 games as Miller's backup last season, had a save percentage of .922, hardly impressive. 10* (65) New York Rangers |
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10-09-14 | BYU +3.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 38 m | Show |
BYU got knocked off last Friday for the first time this season as it lost to Utah St. as a 21-point favorite. The Cougars have now dropped three straight games against the number, all as double-digit favorites but they are in a completely different role this Thursday. Speaking of losing, BYU has to deal with losing quarterback Taysom Hill for the season after he suffered a broken leg against the Aggies and it was all downhill from there as replacement Christian Stewart was horrible. Coming in non-prepared like that is tough for any quarterback but even though this week is a short week, Stewart at least will have taken reps with the first team so the adjustment will be a lot better now. Central Florida won last Thursday over Houston as it forced a late turnover to pull out the win and improve to 2-2 on the season. Now the Knights are sandwiched in-between two conference games and while playing under the Thursday night lights is big, they are not the better team here, even with Hill out. The quarterback situation in Central Florida is just as bas if not worse so the Knights are being forced to run which is the strength of the Cougars defense. We are getting a huge line edge here also as the loss of hill has adjusted this line by over 10 points which is simply too much. The Cougars are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games as regular season underdogs while going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The value is too hard to pass up here. 10* (103) BYU Cougars |
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10-08-14 | San Jose Sharks +120 v. Los Angeles Kings | Top | 4-0 | Win | 120 | 39 h 42 m | Show |
San Jose heads to Los Angeles to take on the Stanley Cup Champions Kings in the season opener for both sides. When it comes to the NHL and NBA, I typically go against the defending champions in their first game of the season because of all of the hoopla and distractions surrounding it. Banners are raised and rings are passed out so the actual hockey game plays second fiddle. When Los Angeles won the Stanley Cup in 2012, it opened the following season with the loss against the Blackhawks. The Sharks also have some added motivation here. They had home ice in the first round of the NHL playoffs last season against the Kings and built a 3-0 lead in the series by scoring 17 goals but then the wheels fell off as the offense managed only five goals over the final four games and they lost the series 4-3. The Kings became just the fourth team to win a best-of-seven series after losing the first three games. San Jose has won four straight season openers, two of which have come on the road. The Sharks were a very solid 22-15-4 on the road last regular season while the Kings were just 23-14-4 at home and that home record was the worst in the Western Conference of all playoff teams. Look for the Sharks to come in with a ton of energy and a ton of motivation and get a big payback win. 10* (5) San Jose Sharks |
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