4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Warriors UNDER

While there have been a lot of high-scoring games early on this NBA season, I don't see Sunday's matchup between the Warriors and Nuggets coming anywhere close to the number the books set here. 

Everyone has Golden State circled on their calendar and are going to give them their best shot. We have already saw that in each of the Warriors first two games, as OKC (without Westbrook) lost by just 8 in Golden State and Utah lost by just 1 at home and should have won that game outright. 

Denver has started out 2-0 agains the Clippers and Suns, two teams not really expected to be in the playoff hunt in the West. While you don't want to overreact to those two results, I think it says a lot with how well the Nuggets have played defensively. They went on the road and held the Clippers to 98 points and followed it up by limiting the Suns to just 91. They held LA to just 40.25 shooting and PHO to 37.7%. 

I'm not expect them to keep Golden State under 100, but I think they can keep them closer to 110 and that should be enough to stay under the mark. Take the UNDER! 

1* Free Pick on Cleveland Browns +3

Cleveland is worth a look here as a short road dog against the Bucs. Most will be drawn to Tampa Bay with the Browns off an ugly 38-14 loss at home to the Chargers and the Bucs narrowly missing out on a win at Atlanta. I think hit has Cleveland showing value here. 

Tampa Bay has lost 3 straight and the defense continues to be awful and this is simply not a team you can trust laying points. The Bucs are 31st in the NFL, giving up 440 yards/game. They also have the 32nd ranked pass defense (355.8 ypg), which makes it near impossible to put teams away even if they do get a lead. 

Cleveland is better than they showed against LA and keep in mind that's a Chargers team that is 4-2 with their only two losses coming against the two best teams in the league in the Chiefs and Rams. I think the Browns can make Jameis Winston and the Bucs one-dimensional with the passing game and really pin their ears back and put pressure on the mistake-prone signal caller. Tampa Bay has 11 turnovers in their last 14 games and have won the turnover battle just once all season. 

Bucs are 4-9 ATS as a home favorite with Winston as their starting quarterback and 12-26 in their last 38 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Cleveland!

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4* NFL Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Bears +

The books are begging the public to take the Patriots here as a short road favorite, but my money is on the Bears to cover the number at home, as I look for Chicago to win this game outright. New England comes in off that impressive 43-40 shootout win at home over the Chiefs and have won 3 straight overall, but those last 3 have all come against soft defensive teams in Miami, Indy and KC. 

Chicago isn't just a good defensive team, they are one of the best in the NFL. The Bears are 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 19.2 ppg and 10th in total defense, allowing a mere 344 yards/game. We saw the Tom Brady and the Patriots offense really struggle against a physical Jaguars defense on the road earlier this season. With Gronk not going to be available, I think it's going to be really hard on New England to move the ball. 

While the Bears offense has been limited at times, they are coming off two really strong performances. They had 48 points and nearly 500 total yards of offense at home agains the Bucs and 28 points and 467 yards at Miami last week. Patriots defense has plenty of holes for Trubisky and that Bears offense to exploit, as NE is allowing 28.5 ppg and 447 ypg on the road this season.

Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take Chicago! 

3* NFL Bengals/Chiefs SNF Total ANNIHILATOR on Bengals/Chiefs UNDER

As difficult as it is to bet the UNDER in a game involving the Chiefs and that high-powered offense, there's simply too much value here on the UNDER at nearly 60 points to pass up. No question the books inflated this number after last week's Chiefs/Pats game combining for 83 points. 

I just don't think Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense is going to be scoring 30+ points in this game. Cincinnati managed just 21 points and 275 total yards last week against a bad Steelers defense and keep in mind they had just 14 points and 200 total yards before that late TD drive to take a brief 21-20 lead before giving up the game-winning score. 

As bad as the numbers are for the Chiefs defense, the big key here is how much better they have played at home. While they allowed 27 to the 49ers in their home opener, a lot of that had to do with the game being over at the half with KC up 35-10. There other home game was against the Jags and they shutout Jacksonville for 2+ quarters. 

The Chiefs are going to score, but I just don't see them scoring at the rated needed to push this over the mark. 

UNDER is 9-1 in the Bengals last 10 road games after being outgained by 150+ yards last time out and 13-4 in the Chiefs last 17 home games against a bad defense team (allowing 350+ yards/game). Take the UNDER! 

5* NFL AFC South GAME OF THE YEAR  on Jags - 

This is the ideal spot to jump on Jacksonville. The perception couldn't be much worse on the Jaguars after their last two performances. After getting routed on the road by the Chiefs 30-14 in Week 5, Jacksonville laid an absolute egg in a 40-7 loss at Dallas this past Sunday. 

The thing is, this is a team that has a hard time playing well on the road, but seem to always show up at home. I expect a completely different Jaguars team when they take the field at home against division rival Houston. 

I know the Texans come in having won 3 straight after their 0-3 start, but it's nothing to be excited about. The 3 wins came against the likes of the Colts, Cowboys and Bills and all 3 wins came by a touchdown or less and only the game against Indy was on the road. This is still the same team that lost outright at home to that awful Giants team. 

I just think with the way the Texans offense is struggling to move the ball, they simply won't be able to score enough here against an elite and pissed off Jaguars defense. Jacksonville's Doug Marrone is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a head coach the game following a contest where his team was outgained by 100 or more yards. Jags are also 14-5 in there last 19 off a loss by more than 14 points, while the Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 on the road and 4-12A TS in their last 16 off a win. Take Jacksonville!