10* FREE MLB PICK (Cardinals -137) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with St Louis as a relatively small home favorite against the Brewers in Monday's series opener. The Cardinals are fresh off a 3-game sweep at home over the Giants and have won 6 of their last 7 overall. I look for them to stay hot with the edge they have on the mound in this one. St Louis will give the rock to Jack Flaherty, who has an impressive 2.74 ERA and 1.027 WHIP in 11 home starts and a 2.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Brewers. Milwaukee will counter with the struggling Junior Guerra, who has a 11.18 ERA and 2.899 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Guerra is also a mere 3-6 with a 7.07 ERA and 1.752 WHIP in 11 road starts. Give me the Cardinals -137! 

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40* STEELERS/BUCS MNF NO-BRAINER (Over 53.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the Steelers and Bucs going OVER the total set by the books. I just don’t think the total is high enough with the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and how bad they are on the defensive side of the ball. I look for both teams to score early and often and there figures to be a lot of explosive plays from both sides that lead to some quick scores.

Pittsburgh’s defense just hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier went down last season. They held the Browns to 21-points, but Cleveland’s offense was anemic with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. We saw just how much better the Browns offense was when Baker Mayfield took over for him in Thursday’s win over the Jets. After watching Mahomes and the Chiefs do whatever they wanted against the Steelers in Week 2, I don’t know how they are going to contain this Tampa Bay offense.

Chances are Fitzpatrick won’t be able to sustain this ridiculous play the entire season, but right now he’s playing at an elite level and you have to just assume with the weapons he has that it’s going to last at least a few more weeks.

What often gets overlooked when a team is putting up big numbers and winning games, is the play of the defense and Tampa Bay is lucky the offense has been clicking. They gave up almost 500 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and over 400 yards to an Eagles offense that had looked atrocious with Foles at quarterback this season. Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is going to have their way in this one.

Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The OVER is 28-8 going all the way back to 1983 when you have a home team with a line of +3 to -3 that has allowed 99 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games against an opponent that had 50 or fewer rushing yards in their last game. That’s a 78% system in favor of the OVER. Give me the OVER 53.5!