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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-24-15 | Old Dominion -3.5 v. UAB | Top | 68-81 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
Despite being two games out of first place in C-USA, I still believe that Old Dominion is the team to beat. The Monarchs opened the season 13-1 which included two road wins to open conference action. That start was no fluke as they had quality victories against LSU and VCU and while they are just 2-2 over their last four games, it has not been a poor run. Old Dominion lost at Western Kentucky, which leads the conference currently with a 6-0 record and it was a tough spot as it was their third straight road game. After two wins, the Monarchs lost on Thursday at Middle Tennessee St. and while it was by 10 points, it came in overtime no thanks to Middle Tennessee tying the game up in regulation in the waning seconds. Now it is bounce back time as the brutal schedule to open C-USA continues as this is the fifth road contest in seven conference games but I certainly like the chances. While Old Dominion has dropped four straight games against the number, UAB has covered six straight games while going 5-1 straight up to sit just one game out of first place. That is helping us keep this number within reason. The Blazers are also coming off an overtime game and they were on the fortunate side of that one as they won by five points against Charlotte. The luck runs out on Saturday however as the Monarchs will be more than ready. 10* (593) Old Dominion Monarchs |
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01-24-15 | Illinois v. Minnesota -6 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
Minnesota finally picked up its first Big Ten won last Saturday against Rutgers, although the Gophers failed to cover for us. Unfortunately, they backed it up with a loss at Nebraska on Tuesday and they now sit just 1-6 in the conference after coming into the season with high expectations. They have failed to cover any of the seven Big Ten games which is once again putting them in a contrarian position and this time around, they are facing an opponent coming off a win as the last three opponents have been coming off losses. Certainly there can be no excuses for losing but Minnesota has been so close to having a respectable record as of the six losses, five have come by five points or less including two by a bucket at home. The Gophers certainly have not forgotten about the Illini coming in here last season and beating Minnesota by 13 points. They are 31-5 over their last 36 home games with four of those losses coming by 3, 1, 2 and 2 points so that Illinois game was the biggest home loss over that stretch. The Illini won their last game against Purdue as they bounced back from a loss against Indiana. They have followed up their previous three wins with losses next time out however and despite being two games better than Minnesota in the conference, their scoring differential is much worse as the four losses have come by an average of 10 ppg. 10* (560) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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01-24-15 | Northeastern v. William & Mary -4 | Top | 62-78 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
One game separates four teams for first place in the CAA and two of those teams square off Saturday afternoon in Williamsburg. William & Mary had its three-game winning streak snapped with a loss at Delaware on Wednesday. Its second loss in its last three road games. The Tribe however are a perfect 8-0 at home including four victories this season when following a loss on the road. Over the last five years, the Tribe has possessed one of the most effective and efficient offenses in the country, and 2014-15 is no different. The Tribe is ninth in effective field goals percentage (56.3) and 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency (111.5) and they have been even better in CAA play topping the league adjusted offensive efficiency (120.3) and effective field goal percentage (60.3). Northeastern is leading the conference by a game thanks to a 23-point win over James Madison on Wednesday which capped off a four-game homestand. This is the Huskies first road game in two weeks and while they have won four straight road games, this is the biggest test of the bunch. The Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win while the Tribe are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. Northeastern is playing with double revenge from last season but road revenge is not something to go after and the Tribe move into a first place tie after Saturday. 10* (542) William & Mary Tribe |
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01-24-15 | Rutgers v. Penn State -6.5 | Top | 51-79 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
There are a number of teams throughout the country that have yet to win a conference game and Penn St. can be argued as being the best of the bunch. The Nittany Lions went 12-1 in nonconference action with the only loss coming in overtime against Charlotte in Charleston. They had solid victories over UCS, Akron and George Washington but the great start has not transferred over into Big Ten play. They are 0-6 but they have played exceptionally well despite being held without a victory. Three losses have come by six points or less as well as another in overtime and two of those close defeats came against Indiana and Michigan St. Meanwhile another of those close losses came at Rutgers so Penn St. will be out to avenge that loss. The Scarlet Knights have dropped three straight games since their big upset over Wisconsin but they have been competitive when getting big points as they have covered three straight when getting double-digits. Penn St. has struggled as a favorite as it is 0-9 ATS when favored by seven points or less so it is certainly due which puts it in a great contrarian situation here. Penn St.'s opponents are scoring on 40.5 percent of their total shots and 33.2 percent of three-point attempts, defensive marks which stand as fourth and sixth all-time since 1965. Look for that to continue against a struggling Rutgers offense. 10* (516) Penn St. Nittany Lions |
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01-23-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder +4 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 93-103 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 47 m | Show |
After a mediocre 5-5 start, Atlanta has taken the NBA by storm, going a remarkable 30-3 over its last 33 games to take control of the Eastern Conference. This includes 14 consecutive wins in which the Hawks have covered every single one of those games. They never trailed against Indiana and that has become a habit of late. Since winning a close game against Detroit back on January ninth, their biggest deficit over the last seven games has been three points and in the seven games total, they have been behind by a total of just seven points combined which is pretty incredible. Taking nothing away from what it has done but Atlanta has played the 28th ranked schedule in the NBA with five of the eight losses coming against top 16 teams. Oklahoma St. barely is in that group because of a poor start to the season with the absences of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook for lengthy periods of time. The Thunder are currently ninth in the Western Conference standings but they are playing like a contender once again as after a 3-12, they have gone 19-8 over their last 27 games including wins in four straight games. They are 11-5 against the Eastern Conference and while Atlanta is the class of that side right now, the Thunder will not be intimidated by the Hawks or their streak. Betting against Atlanta has not been smart in some of its recent games but it has not faced a team with a winning streak this long since taking on Portland back on January 3rd. 10* (807) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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01-23-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 196 | Top | 91-86 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
We lost the Toronto over in its last game as a 32-point first quarter killed any chance of surpassing the total. The Raptors lost that game which was their third loss in four games with all five of those games staying below the total. The main reason has been the offense which has cooled off considerably, averaging just 92 ppg on 40.6 percent shooting. Those averages are way down from their season numbers and if there is an opponent that can jump start that offense, it is the Sixers. Philadelphia is allowing close to 103 ppg on the season so it should show very little resistance against the Raptors and Toronto is going to be gunning to get out of its offense struggles. The Sixers offense has been pretty bad of late as well as they have gone 19 straight games without scoring 100 points. Don't be surprised to see that streak get broken here as Toronto is allowing the fifth most points on the road in the NBA at 106.2 ppg. The Raptors have allowed at least 100 points in 13 of their 19 road games this season and while the defense has been better the last two games, it has been a pace issue as Memphis and Milwaukee has taken just 74 and 76 shots respectively. The Sixers average 81 shots per game and they are the sixth fasted team in the NBA with 99.9 possessions per game. These teams played just over a week ago with a closing total of 202.5 which shows how much value we are getting in this total on Friday. 10* Over (801) Toronto Raptors/(802) Philadelphia 76ers |
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01-22-15 | Arizona State v. California -1 | Top | 79-44 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
After four straight losses to open Pac 12 action, Arizona St. finally got off the schneid with a win over Colorado on Saturday by six points. Was it impressive? Not at all. The Buffaloes were without two of their top three leading scorers as Josh Scott and Xavier Johnson were both out. It was certainly a must needed win for Arizona St. and one that it could have build from given better circumstances. Now the Sun Devils have to hit the road again where they are 0-5 on the season and are now at the wrong place at the wrong time. California has had the opposite start in terms of when it has won and lost as it opened conference play with a victory over Washington at home but since then, it has gone on to lose its last four games with only one of those being decided by single digits. The four-game losing streak is the longest skid since February of 2011 when it lost four in a row so it has been close to four years since things have gone this bad. The last time the Golden Bears lost five straight games was all the way back in 2008 so there is a lot of pride at stake tonight and there will be some added hunger here as they have not played a game since January 14th, a span of eight days. Triple revenge is on the line as well including two losses against Arizona St. from last season that were both decided by double-digits. The Sun Devils come in on a 3-9-1 ATS skid in their last 13 road games going back to last season. 10* (584) California Golden Bears |
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01-22-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Chicago Bulls +5 | Top | 81-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
We held off on this game hoping for a line move and we got just that. This line opened at +2 early afternoon on Wednesday and now we are seeing pretty much -5 across the board. The Spurs are healthy and riding a four-game winning streak, both straight up and against the number and this is the time the public starts backing them heavily. San Antonio is 12-10 on the road following its win in Denver on Tuesday but this is an interesting line in the fact that it was favored by only 3.5 more points there and in their previous road game at Charlotte, the Spurs are actually favored by more tonight despite playing a team nine games better than the Hornets. Things are not good in Chicago right now as it is coming off its second straight loss, a 14-point setback against the Cavaliers. That effort forced Derrick Rose to call his team out, himself included, stating they are playing with no passion, no energy and no hustle. It comes at a perfect time with the upcoming schedule being pretty brutal and Rose's comments should have his team ready to go tonight as we like backing teams facing adversity that need to step up with the public all over the other side. So far this season, the Bulls have responded well for the most part as they are 11-4 following a loss and while they have failed in both attempts as a home underdog, those games were against Golden St. and Atlanta, the two top teams in their respective conferences. If we are going to see a full on effort from Chicago, this is the night it happens. 10* (504) Chicago Bulls |
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01-22-15 | Southern Mississippi v. Rice -7.5 | Top | 56-58 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
We have a very unique situation taking place with Southern Mississippi on Thursday after it has self-imposed a postseason ban for this season, the school announced on Tuesday night. The team will not play in either the Conference USA tournament or any possible postseason bid afterward. This is the first game since this was announced and if there is any wonder how the team took the news, the players refused to attend practice on Thursday according to ESPN. If they aren't willing to practice, the likelihood of them showing up mentally for this game is next to nothing. Chances are the Golden Eagles weren't going to any postseason tournament anyway are currently 5-11 this season with a power rating of 323rd in the country out of 351 teams. They have lost eight consecutive games, including their first five in C-USA but knowing they can't even go to that tournament is a bummer. Rice comes in with an identical 5-11 record but it has won two games in the conference including a road win at Charlotte over the weekend. The Owls have actually played better than the record may show as two losses came against two of the top teams, UTEO and Old Dominion and they were able to keep those games tight enough to cover. The only bad loss was a three-point defeat to North Texas. Rice went into Southern Mississippi last season and was hammered by 22 points, a game it surely has not forgotten. Additionally, the Golden Eagles have covered only once in seven road games all season, losing those by over 20 ppg. 10* (552) Rice Owls |
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01-21-15 | Purdue v. Illinois -5 | Top | 57-66 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
Illinois suffered its first home loss of the season on Sunday as it fell to Indiana to drop to 2-4 in the Big Ten. The Illini had won their first eight games at home prior to that including an upset over Maryland in their only other conference home game. It was a tough loss for Illinois as it led 72-67 with 3:20 remaining, but wasn't able to hold off Indiana's final run, as the Hoosiers outscored the Illini 13-2 over the final three minutes to leave with a 80-74 victory. I think they are due for a big bounce back here and their record of 3-9 against the number over their last 12 games is actually helping as it is giving us a low number. Purdue is coming off its first road win of the season as it defeated Penn St. in overtime and it was a game it got lucky in winning. Kendall Stephens hit a baseline three-pointer with 5.7 seconds left in regulation off a missed free throw, which would have iced the game if made, to send the game into overtime. The Boilermakers had lost eight straight road games going back to last season and despite a 3-2 conference record, it will be tough to duplicate the road effort twice in a row, especially against an Illini team hungry for a victory. Illinois started 13-2 last season but then lost two road games before welcoming Purdue. They lost that game which was part of a 0-8 run that ended their postseason dreams and they will be out for payback as well as just getting back into the win column. 10* (772) Illinois Fighting Illini |
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01-21-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 200.5 | Top | 86-92 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
We lost with the Toronto over on Monday as a 33-point third quarter did us in. Guard DeMar DeRozan went over 20 points in each of his first three games back from a groin injury but was held scoreless on 0-of-9 shooting in 26 minutes by the Bucks so don't expect to see that again We are playing the over for much of the same reasons as Toronto has lost seven of its last 10 and the reason has been defense. The Raptors have allowed an average of 110.7 ppg in those seven losses and while they allowed just 84, 96 and 89 points in the wins, those were against the Sixers, Celtics and Bucks. The defense has been bad all season as they have allowed 46.3 percent shooting, sixth worst in the league and they are allowing 106.9 ppg on the road, which is third highest trailing only Lakers and Timberwolves. While Toronto has gone under in four straight games, Memphis went under in its last game against Dallas after a run of five straight games going over the total. The Grizzlies play a pretty solid defense but they are actually better on the road than at home while the offense is really the catalyst. They average 105.1 ppg at home which is seventh highest in the NBA which plays right into the hands of the porous Toronto defense The over is 19-8 in the Grizzlies last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the over is 13-5 in the Raptors road games this season. 10* Over (711) Toronto Raptors/(712) Memphis Grizzlies |
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01-21-15 | Chicago Blackhawks v. Pittsburgh Penguins +100 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is the final day of the regular season before five days off during the All Star break and this is a big game for Pittsburgh. The Penguins will look to avoid their fourth straight loss which would currently be the longest losing streak heading into the break for a team with a winning record and while they do not want that claim, most importantly is just going into the time off with some positive momentum. Pittsburgh had snapped a two-game home slide a couple weeks back with a win over Minnesota and will be out to make up for Sunday's nationally televised home loss against the Rangers. Pittsburgh is still a very solid 16-9 at home and with the Islanders off tonight, it can get back to within two points of the Metropolitan Division lead. Chicago is coming off a victory last night which snapped a two-game losing streak and it hits the road where it has been solid all season expect of late where it has lost four of its last six on the highway. The Blackhawks have been unable to put together any sort of winning streak as they are 0-4 in their last four games following a victory. Pittsburgh meanwhile is 15-5 in its last 20 games after its opponent is coming off a game scoring five or more goals while going a very strong 42-16 in its last 58 games in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Look for the Penguins to break the slide and go into the break with at least a little bit of positive momentum. 10* (4) Pittsburgh Penguins |
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01-21-15 | Indiana State +13.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
The class of the Missouri Valley Conference is Wichita St. with the next tier of teams a big step down although they would think they can compete with the Shockers but so far, no one has been able to give them a scare. Two teams that Wichita St. has not played yet and won't for a while is Indiana St. and Northern Iowa, both of which are tied at 5-1 for second place in the conference. Despite being tied, it means little with what this line is telling us as the Sycamores are being given no chance here. They were caught looking ahead to this game last time out on Saturday as they are coming off their first conference loss of the season, going down at Drake which happened to be the Bulldogs first MVC victory of the season, which shows how bad of a loss it was. A big reason for this line is the overall records as Indiana St. is 9-9 while Northern Iowa is 16-2 and while it is a significant difference, the Sycamores have been winning the close games which inspires confidence going forward. The Panthers are getting a lot of the attention because they are ranked so they are forced to be big favorites but because they do play many low scoring games, covering big numbers can be difficult and it shows as they are 2-4 ATS this season when laying double-digits. The Sycamores have covered five straight games against winning teams and this has been a tightly contested series of late with six of the last seven meetings being decided by six points or less. 9* (757) Indiana St. Sycamores |
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01-21-15 | Indiana Pacers +11.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 91-110 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
We bypassed betting against Atlanta on Monday which was a good thing as it won and covered yet again but we will be going against the Hawks Wednesday. One big reason for not playing against them last timer out was the opposition as while Detroit may not scare many people, the Pistons are playing very solid and they gave Atlanta all it could handle 10 days prior as the Hawks won that meeting by just three points on the road. The streak has now reached 13 straight wins and covers but this is a great opportunity for that to come to an end, at least the cover part as the Hawks are laying a bug number once again and they are just 2-4 ATS when laying eight or more points. While Atlanta has been winning, the Pacers have been on an opposite streak as they have dropped five straight and six of their last seven while going seven straight games without a cover and it is extremely to see a dynamic this big where we have a contrarian bounce angle of 20 (13 straight ATS wins for Atlanta and seven straight ATS losses for Indiana). Atlanta won both earlier meetings this season by double-digits thus taking out their revenge from last season's Conference Quarterfinals series loss in seven games so the sense of urgency may not be there especially with a game at home against Oklahoma City on deck. Indiana meanwhile is in desperation mode right now and will play a hard fought game. 10* (709) Indiana Pacers |
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01-21-15 | Toronto Maple Leafs +130 v. Ottawa Senators | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Toronto is on the worst skid in the NHL right now. Even though its five-game losing streak currently is not the longest, its two goals scored over that stretch is the lowest offensive output among any team in the league and this is the lowest scoring drought for Toronto since 1929. Facing Ottawa could be the cure right before the All Star break as the Maple Leafs have won 10 of the last 12 meetings including the lone meeting this season in Ottawa. While it has yet to be confirmed, goalie James Reimer is expected to get the start tonight as he has won eight of nine starts in Ottawa behind a 1.33 GAA. The Senators are not playing much better as they have dropped two straight, including an overtime loss to the Rangers last night and going back further, they have lost nine of their last 13 games. After opening the season at 4-2 at home, Ottawa is just 5-8 over its last 13 home games The second of a back-to-back normally would mean a start for Robin Lehner, but he is in a major funk with a four-game losing streak while allowing at least four goals in each defeat. Craig Anderson has made only one back-to-back start with no rest this season so Toronto should be in good shape either way no matter who starts. There will be motivation to win on both sides no doubt but recent dominance as well as a solid price gives the Maple Leafs the edge as does the fact that the Senators are 0-5 in their last five games following overtime on the previous day. 10* (1) Toronto Maple Leafs |
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01-21-15 | North Carolina -8 v. Wake Forest | Top | 87-71 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
Typically we do lay many points on the road unless the situation calls for it and this is one of those. Wake Forest is a covering machine right now as it has not lost a game against the number in six weeks, going 7-0-1 ATS in eight lined games over that stretch including seven wins in a row. Conversely, North Carolina is hurting its backers with four straight losses against the number. Prior to their easy win, but non-cover, against Virginia Tech, North Carolina was involved in three straight games decided by one possession and while those close games aren't ideal, the Tar Heels feel as though they are learning from these experiences and will be a more dangerous team as a result. They have played a couple tough opponents on the road in the ACC at Clemson and NC State and now they catch their easiest road game of the bunch. This game is a big one with Florida St., Syracuse, Louisville and Virginia being their next four games. Their last three losses have come against Kentucky, Notre Dame and Iowa, all ranked and while they are 5-4 against top 50 teams, they are 9-0 against all others which is where Wake Forest falls. The Tar Heels are no doubt overdue and ready to take out an unmatched opponent without sweating it out. The Demon Deacons are 0-7 against teams ranked in the top 50. North Carolina surely has not forgotten coming here just over a year ago and going down by six points. 10* (727) North Carolina Tar Heels |
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01-20-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets +8 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
Denver got absolutely annihilated at Golden St. yesterday as it fell by 43 points for its third straight loss and things don’t get any easier tonight. Facing Dallas twice, Golden St. and now San Antonio in a four-game, five-day stretch is a nightmare schedule for a team trying to find its identity and simply trying to turn the corner. Most of the damage this season has been on the road however as the Nuggets are 6-14 away from home but a much more respectable 12-9 in their building even though that does include an embarrassing loss against Minnesota last time they were here. That along with the defeat yesterday will have Denver plenty motivated here., The Spurs meanwhile are coming off a win over Utah, its second straight since Kawhi Leonard returned to the lineup after missing 15 straight games with a hand injury. The Spurs went just 7-8 over that stretch so now fully healthy, they are a dangerous team going into the second half of the season where they are currently sitting in fourth place in the Southwest Division, three and a half games behind Memphis. But this is a big number to be laying on the road against a team that has a better record at home than San Antonio does on the road. The Spurs are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game while the Nuggets are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (504) Denver Nuggets |
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01-20-15 | Tennessee v. South Carolina -5.5 | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
South Carolina returns home following a loss at Auburn over the weekend to fall to 1-3 in the SEC. The Gamecocks lost that game by just three points and a four-point loss against Florida earlier shows that the record could be better but they have been haunted by close losses all season as their three nonconference losses came by four, two and five points. South Carolina has yet to cover a conference game, going 0-4 ATS and that is playing into this line which is helping us keeping it lower than it should be. Tennessee has won two straight entering the game, having posted a home win over Arkansas last Tuesday, and a 59-51 road win at Missouri on Saturday. The Volunteers were underdogs in both of those games which put them in a good go against situation. South Carolina should be playing with added motivation as Tennessee has won 14-straight meetings between the two schools. The Gamecocks last win was also their last home win against Tennessee, an 81-64 victory on Feb. 17, 2007. South Carolina has victories this season over three teams in the top 55 of the RPI in Iowa State (15), Oklahoma State (33) and Alabama (52). This is a big game for the Gamecocks as they have Kentucky on deck and while that could typically produce a lookahead situation, that will not be the case here as a loss here likely means they would be 1-5 in the conference which could already remove them from NCAA Tournament consideration despite the previously mentioned quality victories. 10* (528) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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01-20-15 | Dayton v. Davidson -2.5 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
While everyone expected to be chasing VCU in the Atlantic Ten, the Rams are currently 5-0, not many expected Dayton to be tied with that same record but that is the case. The Flyers have won their first five conference games with relative ease as they have won all of those by at least 11 points and they have been by an average of 17.6 ppg. To no surprise, Dayton has covered all five of those games and while it is 3-1 on the road this season, this will be the second toughest road test as the first resulted in a 14-point loss at Arkansas. Davidson was off to a 3-1 start in its first season in the Atlantic Ten before heading to Richmond over the weekend and getting crushed by 26 points. The Wildcats had their 11-game cover streak snapped in the process which was a pretty amazing streak considering the level of competition they were facing in some of those games. They return home where they are 8-0 on the season and going back, they have won 14 straight home games. This is an incredibly balanced and efficient team as five different players have hit the 20-point plateau for the Wildcats this season. In addition to ranking seventh nationally in scoring offense (82.4 ppg), Davidson is averaging 10.6 three-pointers per game, which is fifth best in the country. Also, it is ranked second in assist/turnover ratio at 1.60, ninth in assists per game with 17.3 and 19th in free-throw percentage at 74.7 percent. The Flyers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (518) Davidson Wildcats |
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01-19-15 | Oklahoma v. Kansas -5.5 | Top | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Kansas suffered just its third loss of the season and its first in conference action on Saturday as it went to Iowa St. and was defeated by five points. Now it is a quick turnaround for the Jayhawks and that is a good thing as they still have the bitter taste in their mouths so they will be ready for some immediate retribution. Good teams typically follow up losses with victories depending on the situation but great teams get it dome the vast majority of the time and that is the deal with Kansas and under head coach Bill Self, the Jayhawks are 63-8 with 39 of those victories taking place in Allen Fieldhouse where they are currently riding a 17-game winning streak. The Jayhawks are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss. Oklahoma is coming off a win over rival Oklahoma St. over the weekend by 17 points and it has been an uneven start for the Sooners in conference play. After winning back-to-back games against Baylor and Texas, they lost to Kansas St. and West Virginia before their victory over the Cowboys but they are catching Kansas at the wrong time in the wrong place. Not only will they be facing an angry Kansas squad but the Jayhawks have defeated the Sooners 13-straight times in Allen Fieldhouse. With the spotlight on, Kansas is at its best as it has won 22-straight ESPN Big Monday games in Allen Fieldhouse, which includes an 18-0 mark under Self. 10* (744) Kansas Jayhawks |
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01-19-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 198.5 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Milwaukee returns home from its game in London against the Knicks which was an easy winner and it also resulted in an easy under, the 11th straight game that has stayed under the total for the Bucks. Bad offense, strong defense or a combination of both? It has been a mix as Milwaukee has gone over 100 points only twice but has scored 95 or more points eight times so it hasn't been no where near shutdown. You will see that the Bucks have allowed 79, 95, 84 and 77 points their last four games but those three lowest point totals given up were against the three worst teams in the NBA and three pretty putrid offenses. Toronto has lost two straight games and seven of its last nine and the reason has been defense. The Raptors have allowed an average of 110.7 ppg in those seven losses and while they allowed just 84 and 96 points in the wins, those were against the lowly Sixers and Celtics. The defense has been bad all season as they have allowed 46.3 percent shooting, fifth worst in the league and they are allowing 108 ppg on the road, which is third highest trailing only Lakers and Timberwolves. Yet, Toronto has gone under in its last three games so we are getting exceptional contrarian value with a team that is 13-4 to the over in its 17 road games and is 17-5 to the over its last 22 games playing with no rest. 10* Over (719) Toronto Raptors/(720) Milwaukee Bucks |
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01-19-15 | New Orleans Pelicans v. New York Knicks +6.5 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Following their loss in London, the Knicks have now dropped 16 consecutive games while going back further, they have lost 26 of their last 27 games and a lot of those have not been close. During the recent losing streak, they are 4-11-1 ATS and during the 27 games, they are 10-16-1 ATS which to be honest is not that bad of a record considering the magnitude of the straight up losing skid. They are back home where they have lost 12 in a row but you have to give credit to the New York faithful as they still come out and watch so there is no lack of energy in this building. I think the Knicks actually have a good shot here of breaking the skid as the schedule during this stretch has been absolutely brutal. Only a majority of games have come against losing teams and overall, they have played the fourth toughest schedule in the NBA so while you can't make excuses for losing, they have had little opportunities. New Orleans is sitting at .500 so this would seem like another bad spot but the Pelicans are likely to be without forward Anthony Davis and point guard Jrue Holiday once again. To their credit, they went into Toronto last night and won without the duo but getting up for a top team in the Eastern Conference compared to one of the worst are two different things. They are just 4-15 this season following a win while going 2-8 ATS as a favorite following a victory. 10* (714) New York Knicks |
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01-18-15 | Buffalo Sabres +290 v. Detroit Red Wings | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Buffalo had a solid run going where it went 10-3 over a 13-game stretch but it has been tough going since then with 10 straight losses as well as going 1-14 since that 13-game stretch. Backing the Sabres may seem like a losing cause here but the situation falls into place and you certainly cannot beat the price. The Sabres fell 4-3 to Philadelphia on Saturday for their 10th consecutive regulation loss which is the longest such streak since Pittsburgh went 10 straight without a point in 2005-06 so there is definitely motivation to end that here. Detroit won last night as well as it took care of Nashville for its third straight victory but getting up for the Sabres will be difficult considering that the Red Wings have a revenge game against Minnesota on deck. Goalie Petr Mrazek will get the start tonight as confirmed by head coach Mike Babcock despite starting last night. This is a big deal considering this is his first ever start when playing with no rest. I feel we have a great opportunity with the Sabres as they finally seem to catch a situational break and have a solid chance of ending their slide at a premium price. 10* (57) Buffalo Sabres |
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01-18-15 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. New England Patriots | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 37 m | Show |
Many will be lining up behind the Patriots here based on the fact they should not look as bad as they did last week along with the fact that they have dominated Andrew Luck and the Colts in all three meetings. New England won those three games by 35, 21 and 22 points with the last one being in Indianapolis during the regular season. In my opinion, all of those games can be thrown out as the Colts are playing at a high level while New England has looked average over its last three games. The Patriots twice came back from 14-point deficits against Baltimore so give them credit for fighting all the way to the end. They will likely be a one-dimension team once again however as they threw 51 times and ran it only 13 times for 14 yards against Baltimore. Against two of the hottest backs in the league, Cincinnati's Jeremy Hill and Denver's C.J. Anderson, the Colts allowed a meager 198 yards rushing in two games. The 99.0 ypg average is the lowest among the four teams still playing on championship weekend. On the other side, Luck is playing solid and faces a Patriots defense that has been tore apart by above average starting quarterbacks, including Luck in Week 11. The Colts believe they will have the same starting combination on the offensive line for the third straight week. The most recent time that happened was Weeks 1 to 3. Indianapolis is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing 14 points or less last game while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. 10* (303) Indianapolis Colts |
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01-18-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Orlando Magic UNDER 210.5 | Top | 127-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is coming off one of its highest scoring games of the season as it took care of Golden St. 127-115 in a game that featured two very potent offenses. At least for the Thunder, that is the case since the return of Westbrook and Durant. Now they will be facing the fourth lowest scoring team in the NBA and the seventh slowest team as far as pace as Orlando is averaging just 94.9 ppg while their games are averaging only 96.5 possessions per game. While the Orlando defense has struggled the three games, overall it is not a bad unit that allows 100.1 ppg which is right in the middle of the pack. The Magic have gone over the total in four straight games which has been a mix of offense and defense but now they are getting some great value. They have gone under in six of their last nine games with a total of 200 or higher and tonight presents the biggest over/under they have seen all season. A lot of that has to do with Oklahoma City, which has gone over in two straight against two of the fastest teams in the league. The Thunder have had six games with a total of 210 or higher, three of those against Golden St. and the other three against teams ranked 3rd, 5th and 8th in pace. The under is 11-1 in the Thunder's last 12 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game while the under is 10-3 in the Magic's last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* Under (803) Oklahoma City Thunder/(804) Orlando Magic |
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers +8.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 96 h 52 m | Show |
It is interesting that the team from the west coast is hosting the earlier game on Sunday and that no doubt hurts Seattle from a fan standpoint as the later those games are, the louder it gets. While we lost with Carolina last week, the Panthers actually outgained the Seahawks but it was the 90-yard interception return for a pick six that resulted in a 14-point swing and put the game out of reach. No doubt, playing in Seattle is going to be tough no matter what time of day it is but Green Bay certainly has the ability to win this game and at this price, it is getting zero respect. The line last week eventually went up to 13 on gameday but it hovered around 10.5-11 more of the week and the fact that the Packers are getting just 2.5-3 points less than that depending what line you get is silly. Add to the fact, Seattle was favored by 4.5 points in the season opener against the Packers and now the line has gone up considerably. While Seattle did cover that game, it has not played a top line quarterback since Week Six when Dallas came to town and won outright. Aided by a number of receiving options, a stronger runner in Eddie Lacy and an improved defense that has allowed more than 21 points only once in nine games, the Packers are a more complete and confident team than the one that visited Seattle in September. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that are averaging 7.5 or more passing ypa, after gaining seven or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 45-20 ATS (69.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Green Bay Packers |
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01-18-15 | Iona -0.5 v. Canisius | Top | 74-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Iona is coming off a one point win over Niagara in its first game of its Western New York trip and it took two free throws in the final seconds to get it done. While the game may have seemed close, it wasn't as close as the final score shows as Iona led for all but 57 seconds in the contest and trailed for just 20 seconds. The Gaels out shot the Purple Eagles 47.1 percent to 39.7 percent, out rebounded them 43-42 and had a 17-12 assist advantage. The difference was that they made only nine free throws. That closer than expected win is keeping today's line in check as Canisius looks for some quick revenge following a three-point loss in Iona just last Saturday. The Golden Griffins also played on Friday and they absolutely rolled Siena by 34 points, their third straight cover, and that is helping with this line as well. Favored by 10.5 points in the first meeting, Iona should be favored by 3.5 points or so based on change in venue but the recent results along with the fact the Gaels are without Isaiah Williams, who was injured two games ago, is keeping this line low. They played without Williams for the first time against Niagara so playing Iona now is the time to do so as it has adjusted. The Gales still have A.J. English and David Laury, who are both averaging over 20 ppg, and they are one of only two teams in the country, Georgia St. being the other, that has two 20-point scorers. 10* (825) Iona Gales |
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01-17-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Chicago Bulls +2.5 | Top | 107-99 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Winning streaks play a big factor with lines as they need to be constantly adjusted and they get to a point where they become overadjusted. Last night, the Hawks opened as three-point underdogs against Toronto and the line eventually shifted five points as Atlanta closed as a two-point favorite. The Hawks opened here as a two-point underdog but it quickly shifted to a two-point favorite in a matter of just 12 hours. Atlanta won its 11th straight game and is 16-1 in its last 17 games while going 11-0 ATS and 16-1 ATS respectively over that stretch as well. This includes 11 consecutive wins and covers on the road which is the most impressive part as this is rarely seen in this league. The first win of this recent 17-game stretch came at home against Chicago where Atlanta was favored by 2.5 points, the dame number it is now favored by on the road. The Bulls also won last night in Boston as they bounced back from consecutive losses but there is still work to be done. Those two losses came at home as Chicago wants to snap that skid as well as getting some payback against the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record and I expect them to break the streak tonight. 10* (506) Chicago Bulls |
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01-17-15 | Portland +5.5 v. Pepperdine | Top | 63-67 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
You have to give a lot of credit to Pepperdine as it played an incredible game against Gonzaga on Thursday only to fall short by a bucket as it failed to pull off the major upset. Coming back from that two nights later is going to be difficult and getting up for Portland the same way it did the Bulldogs is going to be impossible. Now with some national recognition, the linesmakers will finally be forced to adjust these lines accordingly as the Waves are 12-2-1 ATS which is the second best record against the number in the country. They have been getting good numbers and catching good situations but that goes against them Saturday night. Portland is coming off a loss on Thursday as well but it came against the worst team in the WCC so it will be in better position to bounce back. That was the Pilots second straight loss to fall to 2-4 in the conference. Portland is 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog of three or more points while going 4-1-1 ATS following a loss and there is no reason to think that the Pilots can't win this one outright. 10* (661) Portland Pilots |
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01-17-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons OVER 194 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
We had the Sixers over last night and while their offense improved from previous games as expected, it was the New Orleans offense that let us down as the Pelicans managed to shoot just 38.7 percent from the floor including 23.5 percent from long range. And it isn't because the Sixers defense is any good because it isn't and we will see that tonight. Playing with no rest will hurt the defense as the Sixers have allowed 102.3 ppg in their previous nine games playing with no rest, six of those going over the total. Additionally, Philadelphia has allowed fewer than 90 points seven other times and has allowed an average of 106 ppg in the next game. Detroit is coming off a dramatic win last night against the Pacers as it bounced back from a loss against New Orleans on Wednesday. It was the second straight under for the Pistons but the offense still managed a good game and I expect it to be even better tonight. Since the resurgence of this team, the offense has been outstanding by averaging 103.6 ppg in 18 games compared to 92.8 ppg in its first 22 games. The over is 6-1 in the Sixers last seven games against teams with a losing record while the over is 5-1 in the Pistons last six games against teams with a losing record. 10* Over (503) Philadelphia 76ers/(504) Detroit Pistons |
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01-17-15 | Utah v. Arizona -4 | Top | 51-69 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
Utah burned us on Thursday as the Utes continued their winning and covering as they are now 14-2 straight up and 11-3-1 ATS. They have won seven straight games while covering their last four and while we thought Arizona St. would give them a fight Thursday night, an 18-3 first half run ended that quickly. Now they are truly in for a test as they remain in Arizona to take on the Wildcats which are due for a good game. After losing at Oregon St. last Sunday, Arizona hosted Colorado on Thursday and while it won by 14 points, the Wildcats should have blown out the Buffaloes as they were down two key starters. Still, the Wildcats are 10-0 at home this season and going back, they have won 31 straight home games. Additionally, Arizona has won 13-straight Pac 12 home games, lead the Pac 12 with a .923 home winning percentage since the start of 2010-11 and is 83-11 (.883) under head coach Sean Miller at McKale Center. The best part about this matchup is the Utah strength is the same as Arizona's, which is defense and rebounding, so the home floor is a huge edge Saturday. 10* (636) Arizona Wildcats |
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01-17-15 | Valparaiso v. Wright State | Top | 66-56 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
This is an excellent scheduling situation for Wright St. which is coming off a loss at home against Cleveland St. on Wednesday to even its record at 2-2 in the Horizon League. It was a tough loss in that it led by five points with 6:43 remaining, only to see Cleveland St. score 11 of the game's final 12 points to come away with a 55-50 decision. Now it is time to bounce back over one of the conferences best teams and the Raiders have alternated wins and losses over their last five games. Valparaiso, along with Green Bay, are the class of the Horizon with every other team a step below and that is a big reason the Raiders opened as a pickem here. The Crusaders are 3-1 in the conference but the situational side is totally against them here as they are coming off a three-game homestand, which were the three wins and two of those were against the conferences two worst teams. The lone conference loss came on the road at Oakland which snapped a three-game road winning streak. The Crusaders are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games following three or more consecutive home games. 10* (642) Wright St. Raiders |
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01-17-15 | West Virginia v. Texas -4 | Top | 50-77 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
Texas got as high as 9th in the AP Poll back on December 22nd but a home loss to Stanford knocked it down some but it still managed to maintain a spot in the top ten until last week as the Longhorns suffered back-to-back losses against Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. Now they are danger of dropping out of the top 25 altogether should they lose here and while dropping out of the polls is not a big deal, this is a huge statement game for Texas. The Longhorns have failed to cover their last four games at home but they were at least six-point favorites in those including three by double-digits. West Virginia is one of the surprise teams so far this season as it is 15-2 with the two losses coming by only three points combined. The most recent was a two-point home loss against Iowa St. but the Mountaineers bounced back with a blowout win over Oklahoma on Tuesday. West Virginia is 3-0 on the road but this is by far the biggest test to date as wins over TCU, Texas Tech and Northern Kentucky are far from impressive. Look for the Texas bounceback right here. 10* (628) Texas Longhorns |
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01-17-15 | Rutgers v. Minnesota -13 | Top | 80-89 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
We played on Minnesota last Saturday at Michigan and while it had the lead the majority of the game, it lost it late and ultimately lost the game and cover. The Gophers followed that up with a two-point loss against Iowa at home on Tuesday to fall to 0-5 in the Big Ten and they are in danger of letting the entire season slip away if they do not turn it around quickly. Welcome Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights pulled off a big upset last Sunday at home against Wisconsin but you can put an asterisk beside that one since Frank Kaminsky did not play due to concussion-like symptoms. Rutgers followed that up with a gallant effort at Maryland but fell short and those two solid back-to-back efforts are going to catch up to them here. Four of Minnesota's five conference losses have been by five points or less, two coming on the road and the two at home coming by two points each against much more superior teams than Rutgers. It is time for the Gophers to break out and not only snap the skid but to win this one going away. 10* (520) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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01-16-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Toronto Raptors -1 | Top | 110-89 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
Atlanta has lost only eight games all season long and 25 percent of those have come against Toronto. Surely the Hawks will be out for revenge but we are hardly a proponent of road revenge and the Raptors are in an excellent spot to keep their season domination going against Atlanta. Toronto has been on a bit of a slide as it lost just six times during its first 28 games but has dropped six games over its last 10 contests, going 3-7 ATS over that stretch. This will be the second game back for DeMar DeRozan who missed 21 games before returning against Philadelphia where he put up 20 points in just under 29 minutes. The Raptors are 13-3 in the 16 games he has finished and just 13-9 in the games he has not. The Hawks remain the hottest team in the NBA with 10 straight victories and on top of that, 10 straight covers. This run has definitely added value to the Raptors which were favored in Atlanta by 3.5 points the last meeting and are now favored by less at home now. All trends point to Atlanta in this one but are going opposite all of those and proclaim that the Hawks run ends here. 10* (810) Toronto Raptors |
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01-16-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Orlando Magic UNDER 198 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
Here we have two teams that have stayed under the total in the majority of their games on the season but that has not been the case recently. I think we come back to the norm on Friday. Orlando has won two straight games thanks to an offense that has put up 121 and 120 points but that is more of an anomaly than the norm. the Magic eclipsed 100 points in two straight games only one other time the entire season and they followed that up with an 86-point effort next time out. Memphis has also picked the offense during its two-game winning streak, scoring 122 and 103 points the last two games but 21 points came in overtime in the former, which would have stayed under had overtime not taken place. Both teams shoot the ball above average but these are two of the slower teams in the NBA as Memphis averages 97.2 possessions in its games while Orlando averages 96.4 possessions in its games, good for 21st and 24th in the NBA respectively. The under is 4-1-1 in the Grizzlies last six games against teams with a losing record while the under is 8-2 in the Magic's last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (807) Memphis Grizzlies/(808) Orlando Magic |
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01-16-15 | Manhattan v. St. Peters -3.5 | Top | 72-65 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
Manhattan and St. Peter's square off for the second time in just over a week and with the Jaspers winning the first matchup, I expect the home team to get some revenge the second time around. Many will be on Manhattan here for the simple reason that the win this year is just the tip of the iceberg as it has won and covered eight straight meetings in this series but that has little meaning for this one. The Jaspers have won three straight games to move to 4-2 in the MAAC but three of those wins have come at home. They are 1-2 on the road within the conference and 1-6 overall. St. Peter's is back home following three straight road games with the last one resulting in a win at Monmouth in overtime on Wednesday which can provide some solid momentum moving forward. This is just the Peacocks second home game since December 23rd and while they are just 4-2, they have won three in a row here and the two losses have been by just five points combined. St. Peter's has quietly gone 7-3 over its last 10 games and it faces a Manhattan defense that allows over 65 ppg. It is important to mate that the Peacocks are 8-1 when scoring 60 or more points with the lone defeat coming against the Jaspers. Sweet revenge on Friday. 10* (830) St. Peter's Peacocks |
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01-15-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 204 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This isn't the most exciting matchup to watch with Cleveland on a six-game losing streak and the Lakers having dropped two straight, four of five and sitting 15 games under .500 for the season. But what it does do is give us a fantastic spot to cash a total as both teams have been riding significant under streaks in which case we should see a high scoring game going tonight. The Cavaliers had posted seven straight unders with LeBron James out of the lineup as the offense could do nothing, averaging just 89.1 ppg over those seven games. James returned against Phoenix and while the offense put up 100 points, the game still went under because the total was inflated at 212.5 but now it has come down for tonight. As for the Lakers, they have stayed under the total in their last six games including putting up a mere 153 points in their last game against Miami but that was just a horrible shooting night as they shot 31.5 percent including 17.4 percent from long range with the Heat not doing much better. Cleveland is 11-2 to the over in its last 13 road games after three or more consecutive unders while Los Angeles is 23-5 to the over in its last 28 home games after scoring 80 points or less. 10* Over (505) Cleveland Cavaliers/(506) Los Angeles Lakers |
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01-15-15 | Toronto Maple Leafs +178 v. San Jose Sharks | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
We lost with the Maple Leafs last night as they were shutout for the second straight game on this four-game roadtrip that continues tonight in San Jose and concludes Saturday in St. Louis. Toronto has now dropped five of its last six games but coming off consecutive shutouts should have this team ready to go tonight. Last night Toronto was a lesser underdog than it is tonight despite playing a team that is 11 points worse than Anaheim and it just 10-9 at home on the season. The Sharks defeated Arizona on Tuesday on the road which snapped a two-game skid and they just have not been playing well at all. Ever since a 9-1 run, San Jose is just 4-6 over its last 10 games including three straight losses at home. The Sharks went 29-7-5 at SAP Center last season, but have already matched that regulation loss total with a 10-7-2 mark this season. While the Toronto offense has been slowed during a recent four-game road losing streak, the Sharks have scored a total of four goals during the three-game home skid. San Jose is just 3-9 this season coming off a road win. 10* (19) Toronto Maple Leafs |
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01-15-15 | Utah v. Arizona State +6 | Top | 76-59 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
We have a unique situation here and one that is in our favor tonight based on scheduling. Utah comes into tonight with a record of 13-2 including 3-0 in the Pac 12 and is ranked 8th in the nation. The only two losses have come against Kansas and San Diego St. and both were close so the Utes are definitely playing at a high level this season. All three of the conference games have been at home however and overall it has played five straight games at home and since mid-November, the Utes have played only one true road game. Conversely, the Sun Devils are 0-3 in the conference but all three of those games were on the road and against teams that are a combined 37-10. Granted, Utah falls into that group of solid teams but the change in venue is a huge advantage for Arizona St. The Sun Devils are 8-1 at home with the lone loss coming in overtime against Lehigh, a poor loss to say the least, but they do have a strong home court edge. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog going up against an opponent off a home win by 20 points or more. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (546) Arizona St. Sun Devils |
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01-15-15 | Oregon State v. Washington -6 | Top | 43-56 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Washington is in a spot where it needs to get some conference wins before the season gets away. The Huskies are 0-3 in the Pac 12, losing two road games, one in overtime, followed up by a tough home loss against rival Washington St. by three points. Overall, Washington has lost four straight games while having gone 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall. After opening the season 5-0, the Huskies have dropped two straight at home but they catch a perfect opponent tonight to break out of that slump. Oregon St. comes into Seattle following a major upset on Sunday as it took down Arizona by a bucket at home, shooting 51.3 percent from the floor in the process. The upset of a top 10 team was the first by Oregon St. since it beat then-No. 3 Arizona in March 2000 which goes to show how big that was. The Beavers improved to a perfect 10-0 at home and 2-1 in the conference but now they hit the road where they are 1-2 including two straight losses with the lone victory coming against Portland in overtime. Oregon St. is 11-3 ATS overall this season which is keeping this line within reason but it is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two or more consecutive covers. 10* (540) Washington Huskies |
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01-15-15 | NY Rangers +112 v. Boston Bruins | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
The Rangers were the hottest team in the NHL not long ago as they had won eight straight games and 13 of 14 before losing at home against the Islanders on Tuesday. They were shutout 3-0, just the second time they have been shutout this season but with the way they have been scoring goals, I expect them to bounce back tonight against a nemesis. The Bruins are riding a four-game winning streak following a 4-3 win over Tampa Bay on Tuesday and while they have made up some ground, they are not playing well this season. With 52 points, Boston is tied with the Rangers for seventh place in the Eastern Conference so while we can argue that New York is not playing well either, it comes down to the long recent stretch as well as motivation. After losing to the Bruins in the playoffs 4-1 two years ago, the Rangers were swept by Boston last season in all three games during the regular season so they will be out for some major payback here. Additionally, the Rangers are 11-2 in their last 13 road games coming off a home loss. 10* (1) New York Rangers |
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01-14-15 | Toronto Maple Leafs +165 v. Anaheim Ducks | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Toronto opened its roadtrip with a 2-0 loss against Los Angeles as the game was tight before an empty net goal put it away. It was a low start for the Maple Leafs as they managed only three shots in the first period so getting out to a quicker and ore aggressive start is key. The Maple Leafs have been shut out twice this season and both times, they responded with victories next time out, scoring five and four goals. They have been praised with the improvements made under interim Head Coach Peter Horachek as they have allowed an average of 22 shots in the past three games, which is better than their season average of 34 spg allowed. Anaheim bounced back from its loss against the Rangers with a win over Winnipeg on Sunday as the inconsistencies continue for the Ducks. Following a seven-game winning streak to start December, the Ducks have gone just 6-5 over their last 11 games with each of their last four wins needing extra time to get the job done. Toronto has won six straight meetings in this series and going back, it is 7-3 in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record. We are getting an excellent moneyline on a quality team that we can take advantage of. 10* (55) Toronto Maple Leafs |
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01-14-15 | Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -5.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Washington won and covered for us last night but we will be going against the Wizards tonight in what I see as a big letdown spot after they snapped their 17-game losing streak against San Antonio. The Wizards also bounced back from their 31-point loss against Atlanta in their previous game to improve to 17-4 at home but they hit the road with a modest 9-8 record which includes losses in four of their last five on the highway. Chicago has not been playing its best basketball as it has 1-3 in its last four games with two of those losses coming against Orlando and Utah with the loss against the Magic coming at home on Monday by seven points as an 11.5-point favorite. The third defeats over this stretch came at Washington on Friday by 16 points so the Bulls have an opportunity for a quick revenge turnaround, similar to what Washington had last night. Additionally, this is Chicago's first home game against the Wizards since they were eliminated by them in five games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals last season. Here, we play on teams that are coming off a loss as a favorite of 10 points or more, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1996. Meanwhile, Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games revenging a road loss of 10 points or more. 10* (714) Chicago Bulls |
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01-14-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Boston Celtics +7 | Top | 105-91 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The Hawks won against last night as they defeated the Sixers by 18 points to increase their winning streak to nine games and maintain their lead in the Eastern Conference at four games. The nine straight wins are currently the most active in the league and even more impressive, they have covered all nine of those games as well. Atlanta also extended its single-season franchise record for consecutive road wins to nine and it looks to keep that going tonight but as the wins pile up, the lines continue to inflate as it is now a seven-point favorite, just three points less than what it was favored by last night. While defeating the Sixers does not invoke a letdown, a game with Toronto up next can be a cause for concern for a lookahead. The Celtic won their last game, an eight-point win over New Orleans on Monday, which halted a mini two-game slide. It is rebuilding time in Boston but at 9-11 at home, the Celtics have played admirably on their home floor and tonight represents the second biggest number they have seen at home all season. The momentum from the win over the Pelicans will certainly help as the Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a win. Look for a closer than expected game tonight than what the line may be telling us. 10* (712) Boston Celtics |
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01-14-15 | Duquesne v. St. Louis -3.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
St. Louis is sitting in a tie for last place in the Atlantic Ten with a 0-3 record following a loss at Davidson on Saturday. The Billikens lost by 35 points so while it was a humbling loss, it should provide plenty of motivation for tonight. The three losses to start conference play have come against three teams that are expected to finish near the top of the standings this season and contend so it isn't like they have lost to any poor teams, which they in fact welcome tonight. Going back, St. Louis is 1-6 in its last seven games and that is helping us with the value here. Duquesne is 1-2 in the conference as it picked up its win last week against St. Joe's but then lost to Rhode Island on Saturday at home. The Dukes have played only one road game since mid-December and that resulted in a 26-point loss at Dayton. Even some of the home losses were bad, St. Francis-Pa. and Maryland-Eastern Shore, so seeing another road rout would not be surprising. 10* (780) St. Louis Billikens |
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01-14-15 | Hofstra v. Northeastern -2 | Top | 83-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
We will be taking a look at another Boston school as Northeastern is back home following a pair of wins over James Madison and Towson to improve to 3-1 in the CAA. The lone loss came against UNC-Wilmington which was at home as a double-digit favorite and that has been the only home game in a span of eight games going all the way back to early December. To say the Huskies will be fired up at home tonight will be an understatement and to add to it, they welcome the 4-0 Pride from Hofstra. The Price have actually won six straight games since the end of January and it has definitely been a trying schedule as only one of those games was at home and this marks the third straight road game in the span of less than a week. While Hofstra may be playing better at the time, we are getting value because of it and going back, Northeastern is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games against winning teams. 10* (754) Northeastern Huskies |
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01-13-15 | Alabama v. South Carolina -4 | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
South Carolina looks to rebound from two straight losses as it fell to Florida at home before getting blown out at Mississippi over the weekend. That snapped a seven-game winning streak for the Gamecocks and they are coming off their lowest point total of the season as they put up just 49 points against the Rebels but going back, they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. While South Carolina looks to pick up its first SEC win of the season, Alabama is off to a 2-0 start in the conference following blowout victories over Texas A&M and Tennessee which has run its winning streak to six straight games. The win over the Volunteers was their first road win of the season but that is where it ends as the Crimson Tide are in a bad spot tonight. South Carolina is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following two or more consecutive losses while Alabama is 2-21 ATS in its last 23 games following six or more consecutive wins. 10* (522) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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01-13-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Washington Wizards -1.5 | Top | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Washington was riding a three-game winning week before going to Atlanta on Sunday and it got pounded by 31 points against the Hawks which have now won eight straight games. Heading back some in a quick revenge situation, I expect the Wizards to bounce back tonight. Washington is 16-4 at home this season and overall it has won 21 of 25 games when favored ad that is a key stat here considering this line is so short as the probability of a win and cover are substantial. The Spurs meanwhile have won two in a row including a victory at Minnesota in their last game on Saturday. San Antonio is just one game over .500 on the road however and it only has one quality road win since late November which came against Memphis on December 5th. Washington lost in San Antonio 10 days which sets up the revenge situation as mentioned and going back, Washington has failed to cover seven straight home meetings in this series., However, this is the best Washington team over that stretch and going back, it is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points. Meanwhile, the Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (506) Washington Wizards |
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01-12-15 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Philadelphia Flyers +127 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 127 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
After two straight wins at home following their eight-game roadtrip, the Flyers lost against Boston on Saturday but I expect them to bounce back tonight and get some revenge on top of it. Philadelphia has lost six straight meetings in this series which is a big reason it is a home underdog but we are getting a solid number as the Flyers were +108 at home the last meeting less than a month ago and now they are bigger home dogs. Tampa Bay has won three straight games with two of those coming on the road however the Lightning are still just 11-11 on the road compared to 16-5 at home. The Lightning have three revenge games upcoming including a game at Boston tomorrow so the focus here could be lacking. Flyers goalie Steve Mason is out and while Ray Emery has been inconsistent this season, he is allowing just 2.3 gpg at home compared to 3.1 gpg on the road. Additionally, the Lightning are 17-51 in their last 68 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (52) Philadelphia Flyers |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -100 | 148 h 27 m | Show |
The NFL could not have scripted this one better fore the final game of the Divisional Playoff Round as the league eats this stuff up. The Colts advanced to the next round as it dominated the Bengals on Sunday for the second time this season. They outscored Cincinnati 53-10 and outgained it 988-389 in those two games combined but both of those games were at home and while Indianapolis had a winning road record, it is skewed. The Colts went 0-3 on the road this season against fellow playoff teams and the margins were even worse as they were outscored 124-65 compared to outscoring the five non-playoff teams 169-103. Denver was able to lock up the 2nd seed in the AFC and a bye with a rout over Oakland and that was a big win as it got them out of a three-game funk and get some momentum heading into the postseason. The Broncos offense has chanced and for the good as in the last six games of the 2014 season, they began grinding out drives, while improving on the points-per-possession efficiency established in the first 10 games. That could be crucial against a Colts defense that has been in the bottom half of the league in rushing yardage per game, per carry and first-down rate. Denver won the first matchup this season as it held off a late Colts rally and the Broncos fall into a great situation based on the as we play against teams that are revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (120) Denver Broncos |
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers -6.5 | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -103 | 145 h 52 m | Show |
Dallas survived at home against Detroit as it rallied from a 14-0 deficit to win it late to earn a trip to Green Bay. The Cowboys were a perfect 8-0 on the road during the regular season and while a win at Seattle was impressive, that was the only road game against a team that made the playoffs. Give them credit for not folding against the Lions but they go into a very difficult spot here. The Packers finished a perfect 8-0 at home which included three wins against teams that made the playoffs. They had a bye week which was more important to them than any other team as it gave time for quarterback Aaron Rodgers to rest his injured calf. Rodgers has been having one of the best seasons of his career and while Dallas has shown the ability to force takeaways this year, Rodgers has been remarkable at home by throwing 25 touchdowns and not a single interception. The Cowboys defense has given up 251.9 ypg through the air this season, which is just 26th in the NFL. Green Bay is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games in the second half of the season when playing against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750, winning those games by close to two touchdowns per game. The key here is second half of the season since Green Bay has a big home field edge in terms of when the weather can get bad. The Weather Channel predicts a high of 19 degrees and a low of 4 next Sunday in Green Bay. 10* (118) Green Bay Packers |
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01-10-15 | St. Mary's v. Pacific +7 | Top | 54-47 | Push | 0 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
St. Mary's started the season 5-0 but then ran into some trouble with losses against Boise St., Northern Arizona and St. John's but it has run off six straight wins since then. This includes a perfect 4-0 start in the West Coast Conference and on top of that, the Gaels covered all four of those games. Now they come in as heavy road favorites against a Pacific team that returns home following a road split last week. The Tigers are just 1-3 in the conference and they will be out to get back on track at home following losses in their last two games here against San Francisco and Santa Clara. This is typically a very solid home field edge and on the season, Pacific is 3-1 ATS as an underdog of seven points or less. The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win of more than 20 points while going 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 10* (668) Pacific Tigers |
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01-10-15 | NY Rangers v. San Jose Sharks -113 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The Rangers have won four straight games including the first two of this west coast trip that ends tonight in San Jose. After a poor start to the season, New York has won 12 of its last 13 games and while many would not want to step in front of that, we are catching a a great number with San Jose in a solid situation. The Sharks had their two-game losing streak snapped at St. Louis on Thursday as they lost 7-2 which was their second loss against St. Louis in less than a week by identical 7-2 defeats. Additionally, San Jose has dropped two in a row at home following an eight-game home winning streak This is a revenge game for San Jose as well as it lost in New York 4-0 earlier in the season and the Sharks are 16-5 against the money line in their last 21 games revenging a loss of four goals or more. They also fall into a tremendous situation where we play on home teams when the money line is -100 to -after allowing three goals or more two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring four goals or more in four straight games. This situation is 24-4 (85.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (70) San Jose Sharks |
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01-10-15 | Carolina Panthers +11 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -108 | 128 h 1 m | Show |
Seattle got off to a pretty uneven start this season with a 3-3 record through six games but closed on a 9-1 run including wins in its final six games of the season while going 5-0-1 ATS over that stretch. The Seahawks are now in the drivers seat to head back to the Super Bowl but just getting there again is difficult in this league as it has been a decade since a team has been able to make a return trip. That means little here but it could have some correlation because of the pressure that comes with it. Carolina heads into Seattle off win over Arizona as the defense held the Cardinals to just 78 total yards and while the Panthers take a big step up in class here, they are playing at the top of their game right now. They have won five straight games after a dismal 1-8-1 run and while many won't give them a chance here, their defense can keep them hanging around. They have allowed 300 yards only once over their last six games and they have outgained seven straight opponents. Seattle isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut as it has scored more than 20 points only twice in its last seven games. The Seahawks were held to just 13 points in the first meeting against the Panthers and while that was in Carolina, the Panthers were not playing at a high level then. Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after two or more consecutive wins. This situation is 65-33 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (113) Carolina Panthers |
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01-10-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls OVER 194 | Top | 87-95 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Milwaukee is coming off a win last night against Minnesota which was its second straight victory but more importantly, it was the Bucks ninth straight game that stayed under the total. That sets up a great opportunity tonight for a high scoring game as we are getting value with the total based on the recent under run as well as the fact this is Milwaukee's fourth game in five nights with there being travel between every game. A busy schedule like that tends to affect the defense more than anything else and while the Bucks have allowed point totals of 82, 77 and 84 points, those games were against New York, Philadelphia and Minnesota, the three worst teams in the NBA and three of the 10 lowest scoring teams in the league. Chicago is also coming off an under last night in Washington which was its second straight game to stay below the total. The offense has been the reason as the Bulls managed only 77 and 86 points in those games but they catch Milwaukee at the perfect time. The Bucks are 22-8 to the over in their last 30 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points while Chicago is 13-5 to the over in home games this season. 10* Over (511) Milwaukee Bucks/(512) Chicago Bulls |
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01-10-15 | Boston Celtics v. Toronto Raptors -11.5 | Top | 96-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Boston gave it all it had last night in Indiana but it fell to the Pacers in overtime as it could not back up a win in Brooklyn from Wednesday. The Celtics now hit the road again and they will be hard pressed to duplicate the effort from last night in a back-to-back situation as they take their 4-11 road record into Toronto to face the Raptors tonight. While this is the biggest spread Boston has seen all season, it is justified in my opinion as the Raptors will be fully focused on a rout. They have lost four straight games including a defeat against Charlotte at home on Wednesday which followed up a three-game west coast sweep prior to that. That loss to the Hornets was only their fourth home loss of the season and they had won five straight games at home prior to that. Celtics Jeff Green was pulled from the starting lineup last night amid trade rumors and while his teammates rallied around that last night, it will be more difficult tonight. Green is averaging a team-best 17.6 ppg and head coach Brad Stevens said that Green won't be with the team this weekend. The Raptors are 23-11-2 ATS in their last 36 games following a loss while the Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (508) Toronto Raptors |
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01-10-15 | Baltimore Ravens +8 v. New England Patriots | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 124 h 21 m | Show |
The Ravens are coming off a win in Pittsburgh despite getting outgained by 92 yards as they were able to take advantage of turnovers. They are a team that simply gets it done this time of year as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six playoff games and 5-0 ATS in their last five road playoff games. The defense was thought to be old and washed up but has allowed 88.3 rushing ypg this season and hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in the past 27 games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady faces a Ravens defense that was second in the NFL in regular season with 49 sacks (29 by linebackers Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs). The Ravens only allowed opponents to convert 42.6 percent of their red-zone drives in the regular season, the second-best percentage in the NFL. On the other side, quarterback Joe Flacco is now 10-4 in his career in the playoffs with 21 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. The Patriots defense is ranked 13th overall and will see plenty of balance coming from Baltimore. While their recent playoff history is well known, the Patriots are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. Going to Gillette Stadium is never easy especially this time of year but the Ravens will be unfazed as they have won twice here in the playoffs in three tries with the lone loss coming by just a field goal. 10* (111) Baltimore Ravens |
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01-10-15 | Colorado State -5 v. Air Force | Top | 92-87 | Push | 0 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
Colorado St. opened the season 14-0 and jumped into the national rankings before a loss last Saturday at New Mexico followed up by a home loss against Wyoming on Wednesday. The Rams hit the road again in hopes of stopping the skid and they will be able to take care of business at Air Force. They have dropped five straight games against the number and overall they are just 3-10-1 ATS and that record is giving us some good value today despite being favored on the road. Air Force is also 1-2 in the conference as the Falcons opened with two losses but bounced back with a 22-point win over 2-13 San Jose St. on Wednesday. While they are 7-1 at home, they have defeated no team worth much so this will easily be the biggest home test of the season thus far. Forward Kamryn Williams, ranks as the team's top rebounder at 6.0 rpg, but the senior suffered a career-ending Achilles injury in the Falcons' conference opener at San Diego St. 10* (551) Colorado St. Rams |
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01-10-15 | Minnesota +2 v. Michigan | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
Minnesota is off to a 0-3 start in the Big Ten following an 11-2 non-conference run to begin the season. The Gophers had won nine straight games prior to this and the schedule has done them no favors with the first two conference games taking place on the road and then a home game against Ohio St. Hitting the road again is not ideal but it comes against a Michigan team that is not up to the same strength as in recent years. The Wolverines picked up a big win at Penn St. on Tuesday but since a win over Syracuse to start December, Michigan is just 3-5 in its last eight games. The Gophers are second nationally in steals per game (11.7) and assists (18.6) and fifth in turnover margin (+6.3), leading the Big Ten in all three categories. The Wolverines are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games so we look for Minnesota to finally break through today. 10* (537) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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01-09-15 | Phoenix Suns v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | Top | 95-100 | Push | 0 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Not many would have expected Phoenix and San Antonio to have the same records at this point of the season but that is the case. The Suns have won four games in a row to move to six games over .500 and are currently tied with the Spurs for seventh place in the Western Conference, just percentage points behind. They are coming off a closer than expected win against Minnesota on Wednesday as they beat the lowly Timberwolves by just a bucket and while they are on a roll, they head to San Antonio at the wrong time. The Spurs lost to Detroit at home on Tuesday by a point on a last second winning shot by the Pistons. That snapped a modest two-game winning streak while also snapping a three-game home winning streak but they should bounce back here. Tony Parker returned last game but went easy as he played just 12 minutes and rested the second half while not even scoring so we will see more production from him. While San Antonio has six home losses, two have been by a single point and the other four came in overtime. They will be out for revenge following a loss in Phoenix earlier in the season and going back, the Spurs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (816) San Antonio Spurs |
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01-09-15 | Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The Thunder are in a very favorable spot on Friday as they look to bounce back from a two-game losing streak with losses against Golden St. and Sacramento by 26 and 21 points. Oklahoma City is riding a three-game winning streak at home and in home games that Kevin Durant has played in, it is a perfect 4-0 while going just 4-4 in his eight road games. Even though he and Russell Westbrook were not around for most of the season, the Thunder are still very much in the playoff picture and losing these types of game is not acceptable. Oklahoma City is off until next Thursday so there will be full focus here. Utah meanwhile is coming off a win at Chicago by 20 points as an 11-point underdog but it has not been good with the momentum as it is just 4-8 ATS following a win this season. To their credit, the Jazz have been solid on the road against winning teams as they are 7-2 ATS but it needs to be noted that none of those came right after a road victory. While Oklahoma City has not covered in any of its last five games, it is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a losing road record and the home team is 11-1 ATS over the last 12 meetings in this series. 10* (810) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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01-08-15 | Memphis v. SMU -8 | Top | 59-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Here we are almost eight weeks into the college hoops season and Memphis is finally playing its first true road game of the season with Hawaii and Oregon being the only other teams in the country still to have yet to hit the road. The Tigers had their five-game winning streak snapped this past Saturday with a home loss against Tulane as 12-point favorites. They have five losses overall and of their eight wins, a victory over Houston is the best one which isn't saying much. The Mustangs had an eight-game winning streak snapped in a 56-50 loss at Cincinnati on Saturday. SMU is 9-1 at home this season and has won 27 of the last 29 home games with its only home loss this season coming against 12-2 Arkansas. Overall, the four SMU losses are to teams that are a combined 46-9. The Mustangs lead the AAC and are 20th nationally in margin between field goal percentage offense and field goal percentage defense at +9.7 percent. In its past 29 home games, SMU is averaging 75.2 ppg with a scoring margin of +15.9 ppg while shooting 50.8 percent and holding opponents to 36.8 percent. Going back, the Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record while SMU is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games against teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game. 10* (560) SMU Mustangs |
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01-08-15 | Charlotte Hornets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 200.5 | Top | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Charlotte won its third consecutive game last night and while doing so, also went over for the third straight game. Those totals were all less than what the Hornets are seeing tonight and all of that is due to the opposition but we are still presented with some awesome value. While the over is 16-5 in Charlotte's 21 games where the total is less than 195, the under is 11-5 when the total is 195 or greater including 5-2 at 200 or higher. Additionally, Charlotte is 21-10 to the under after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games while the under is 5-2 in the Hornets last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. Toronto has gone over the total in two straight games and on the season, the over is 21-13 however 13 of those overs came on the road as the Raptors defense stiffens up considerable at home where they allow 95.4 ppg compared to 108 ppg on the road. Toronto is 19-7 to the under in its last 26 home games after allowing 110 points or more two straight games while the under is 5-2 in the Raptors last seven home games following a road trip of seven or more days. As far as pace goes, both are slower than average as Toronto is 16th with 97.9 possessions per game while Charlotte is 20th with 97.3 possessions per game. 10* Under (501) Charlotte Hornets/(502) Toronto Raptors |
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01-08-15 | Buffalo Sabres +180 v. Carolina Hurricanes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
We played on Buffalo and lost on Tuesday as it was outshot 13-4 in the first period which led to a 3-0 deficit it could not recover from. The Sabres can ill afford slow starts like that and tonight, they should not have that problem. They are still considered one of the worst teams in the NHL and there is no argument with that but they are not the worst as Edmonton is lowest in points with 27 and next on the list is Carolina with 28, three points fewer than Buffalo yet it comes in tonight as a 2-1 favorite. New Jersey was a similar favorite on Tuesday and it has nine more points than the Hurricanes. Carolina is coming off a loss at Nashville which halted a two-game winning streak and while they have been better at home than on the road, the Hurricanes should not be laying this type of number. Carolina has been favored only four times all season, going 1-3 in those games and the highest it has been favored by is -163 which came against Buffalo in October and that ended up being a loss. Offense has been an issue for both sides but more so for Carolina as it has been limited to two goals or less in 17 of its last 18 games. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 4-0 against the money line coming off two consecutive road losses this season. 10* (55) Buffalo Sabres |
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01-07-15 | DePaul v. Creighton -9 | Top | 70-60 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
Here we have two teams that have gotten off to totally opposite starts in the Big East but now the courts switch and we will be backing Creighton. Hats off to DePaul that has gotten off to a 2-0 start in the Big East but it has never opened 3-0 since joining the conference at the start of the 2005-06 season. The Blue Demons were home underdogs in each of the first two games and won both by three points but they were in very favorable situations. They faced Marquette which had not played a true road game since November 18th and then faced Xavier which was coming off a big 17-point win over Georgetown in its previous game. Creighton opened the conference season with two road games at Providence and Georgetown, the latter coming off the aforementioned loss at Xavier. The Bluejays have actually played three straight road games, all losses so they will be more than ready here at home where they are 7-1 on the season. Creighton hasn't lost four straight games since Dec. 23, 1999 - Jan. 6, 2000 and it has won 25 straight regular-season home games against teams from the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 12 and SEC. The Bluejays are 71-8 at CenturyLink Center Omaha under Greg McDermott. 10* (774) Creighton Bluejays |
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01-07-15 | New Orleans Pelicans -4 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
We played against New Orleans on Monday as it hosted Washington and the Pelicans were in a very bad spot there, resulting in a loss. That now puts them in a good spot on Wednesday as they head to Charlotte to once again try and get back over .500. New Orleans is two games out in the Western Conference playoff race and while the season is still young, these are the types of games that really count. New Orleans is 12-4 straight up and 11-5 ATS following a loss this season. Charlotte meanwhile has won two straight games, both on the road no less, but those came against Orlando and Boston which are 11 and 10 games under .500 respectively. The Hornets are an even worse 12 games under .500 and while their home record is slightly better than New Orleans' road record, Charlotte has won just three of 16 gamers against the Western Conference this season. Additionally, the Hornets have won only five of 20 games when playing with one day of rest and they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Pelicans meanwhile have covered six of their last seven road games and have owned this series by going 16-4-1 ATS over the last 21 meetings. I will gladly take the better team in the better situation against a team that is 4-17 against the league's top 16 teams and 0-7 as a home underdog. 10* (703) New Orleans Hornets |
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01-07-15 | Washington Capitals v. Toronto Maple Leafs -101 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Toronto is playing its first game since head coach Randy Carlyle was fired on Tuesday following a road trip in which the team lost five of seven games. The signs were on the wall and after a promising start to the season, management did not want a repeat of last season when the Maple Leafs lost eight straight in regulation and 12 of their final 14 games to fall from playoff contention. Playing a team in their first game with new coaches is always a great angle and this is especially the case with Toronto back home where it is 14-8 and playing a Washington team off consecutive home wins. The Capitals are a solid road team at 11-9 so we are getting a good price because of that. Washington has 20 wins overall and last season after earning its 20th win, Washington lost 11 of the next 13 and wound up missing the playoffs. Toronto won the first meeting here just over a month ago as a -140 favorite so you can see how the value is in place here. The Maple Leafs are 4-0 in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning road record and the home team has won the last five meetings in this series. 10* (2) Toronto Maple Leafs |
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01-07-15 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 195 | Top | 97-77 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Milwaukee is coming off another low scoring game last night as it has now gone under the total in seven straight games. Tonight presents a great opportunity to break that streak as this one sets up good for a high scoring affair. The Bucks offense has been stuck in neutral the last four games, scoring no more than 96 points but now they face a Sixers defense that is allowing 104 ppg and has given up at least 112 points in four of their last six games. They are coming off a solid defensive effort last time out against the Cavaliers as they allowed just 92 points but putting together back-to-back strong efforts on defense has been a rarity. Philadelphia is coming off an under in that game against Cleveland but it has gone 9-3 to the over in its last 12 games following a game that went under the total. The Sixers offense has not reached 100 points since December 13th but that could change here as Milwaukee is allowing 99.5 ppg on the road and the over is 10-4 in the Bucks last 14 road games against teams with a losing home record. Meanwhile, the over is 5-1 in the Sixers last six home games against teams with a winning road record. As far as pace goes, the Sixers and Bucks are averaging 100.7 and 98.8 possessions per game respectively, 4th and 11th most in the league. 10* Over (705) Milwaukee Bucks/(706) Philadelphia 76ers |
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01-07-15 | Florida +1.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
Florida dropped a home game against Connecticut on Saturday, its second straight loss following a bizarre loss at Florida St. prior to that. It has been an uneven start for the Gators as they are just 7-6 on the season but some downward movement was expected following the loss of so much production from last season. Four of those losses have been by four points or less including three by two points or less while the other losses came against Kansas and North Carolina. When putting it all together, Florida has played a very tough schedule to open the season and this marks its SEC opener. It has been 40 years since Florida has entered SEC play with at least six losses. South Carolina is off to an 8-3 start and since dropping a pair of games to mid-majors UNC-Charlotte and Akron in the Charleston Classic, the Gamecocks have reeled off seven straight victories, beating Oklahoma St. and Clemson along the way. It has been a big turnaround under head coach Frank Martin but we still aren't sure if this team is ready to take the big leap forward. Because they have reeled off five straight covers, the Gamecocks are favored in this series for the first time since 2010 and the road team is 19-6-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. 10* (729) Florida Gators |
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01-06-15 | Ohio State v. Minnesota -2 | Top | 74-72 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
Minnesota lost its season opener to Louisville in the Rick Pitino against Richard Pitino father/son coaching duel but recover to win three straight prior to losing to Notre Dame in New York at MSG. The Gopher again rebounded with eight straight wins to close out their non-conference schedule but they were unfortunate to open Big Ten action with two straight road games, and both resulted in losses. They blew a big lead against Purdue and were outmanned against Maryland and going 3-22 from long range didn't help. Now Minnesota heads home where it is 9-0 and laying a short number in a good bounce back opportunity. After falling to Iowa at home in its Big Ten opener, Ohio St. bounced back to defeat Illinois on Saturday and just the opposite of the Gophers, the Buckeyes hit the road for the first time in the conference. Ohio St. is ranked 20th which means it falls into a play against situation where an unranked home team is favored over a ranked road team which has been very solid over the years. The results only add to the strength of it. The Buckeyes are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record while the Gophers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (532) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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01-06-15 | Detroit Pistons v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 198.5 | Top | 105-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Detroit has won five straight games, all being covers as well as the offense has hit its stride, averaging 108.4 ppg and the defense is not far behind as it has improved as well, allowing just 90.2 ppg. Facing a majority of bad teams will do that however and while I expect the offense to keep going, the defense will be in for a tough time on Tuesday. Because of the stifling defense of late, the Pistons have stayed under the total in their last four games. The Spurs meanwhile have stayed under the total in three straight games as the defense has been playing well while the offense has been below its season averages leading up to it. This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Tony Parker and while he likely will not go, the possibility is only a added benefit. As mentioned, Detroit has not played many good teams during its run and it is 8-1 to the over in its last nine games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile the Spurs have played three solid teams during their under run and going back, they are 10-1 to the over in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record while the over is 10-2 in the Spurs last 12 home games. 10* Over (503) Detroit Pistons/(504) San Antonio Spurs |
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01-05-15 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 218 | Top | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
We are definitely going against the grain in this one as everyone sees a trackmeet between Oklahoma City and Golden St. but the value here is too hard to pass up going the other way. These teams met just over two weeks ago and while that game in Golden St. surpassed the total, it would not have if tonight's number was in place as the over/under has gone from 211.5 to 218 in a span of 17 days, which is too big of an adjustment. A lot of that is due to recent games as Oklahoma Coty has gone over in three straight and five of six while Golden St. has gone over in two straight and five of seven. The Warriors falls into a great totals spot as we play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 210 involving a team that is averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg, after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games. This situation is 31-9 (77.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, Golden St. is 20-9 to the under in its last 29 games after scoring 100 points or more three straight games while the under is 21-7 in Oklahoma City's last 28 games playing on two days rest. 10* Under (721) Oklahoma City Thunder/(722) Golden St. Warriors |
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01-05-15 | Washington Wizards +3 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Washington opened this Western Conference swing roadtrip with a win over Houston but it has dropped its last three games but those games came against Dallas, San Antonio and a fully healthy Oklahoma City. This is the final game of this trip and I expect the Wizards to close with a win but will gladly grab the generous points. New Orleans is over .500 once again following a 28-point rout over Houston on Friday which was its fifth straight cover. That is a streak I like going against and because they are favored, the Pelicans are obviously being asked to win but they are 0-4 in their last four games following a victory. Two situations are on our side. First, we play against home favorites revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 94-49 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1996. Second, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 102 ppg, after allowing 100 points or more two straight games. This situation is 25-3 ATS (89.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Washington is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in two straight games. 10* (711) Washington Wizards |
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01-04-15 | Toledo v. Arkansas State UNDER 69.5 | Top | 63-44 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
This total continues to climb which is what we were hoping for and expected and it could reach 70 by gametime which would be the highest total either team has seen all season long. We saw a low scoring game yesterday in Birmingham, or lower than we have seen of late, and while that total went down from opening, a lot of that was weather related. Prior to yesterday, the over was 11-3-1 over the last 15 bowl games so it is to a point where the linesmakers have to overadjust these numbers based on heavy public action. This is another example of that as we have two potent offenses taking the field in Mobile. The big factor here is preparation time which I feel is a big edge for the defenses as well as the makeup of both offenses. While they both like to run a faced paced attack, both rely heavily on the run as Arkansas St. averages 12.7 more runs than passes while Toledo averages 10.5 more runs than passes. Those are significant differentials and we all know how much rushing can effect a total with the clock running as much as it should be. The defenses are nothing special but both have been decent against the run which could help limit the number of really big plays. Toledo is 9-0 to the under in its last nine games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while Arkansas St. is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. 10* Under (275) Toledo Rockets/(276) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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01-04-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat +2.5 | Top | 84-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Brooklyn and Miami are going in opposite directions which is providing a solid line for the home team in a great bounce back situation. The Heat are coming off a 36-point loss at Houston last night, easily their worst loss of the season and their worst loss since 2010. losing like that is certainly no good but it is a great motivator moving forward and the lone good news from last night is the fact that the starters so plenty of rest as the game was done early in the third quarter. Brooklyn meanwhile has won three straight games and six of its last seven to get back to .500 as the offense has picked things up. But the Miami defense has been pretty solid all season and as far as pace, the Heat allow the fewest amount of shot attempts in the NBA. The Nets last win came in Orlando by a bucket as they nearly blew a 26-point lead and I don't think that bodes well going forward. Miami falls into a solid situation as we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss against opponent with that opponent coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 42-15 ATS (73.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (804) Miami Heat |
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 126 h 40 m | Show |
*NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFFS Sunday, January 4th, 4:40 PM ET* Dallas is on a roll with four straight wins and covers and this line is severely inflated to reflect that. This is the second highest line the Cowboys have been favored by at home and is just a point or two lower than when they were favored over Washington. The win over the Redskins this past Sunday completed a perfect 8-0 road record but at home, Dallas is just 4-4 so it has been pretty average even though it defeated the Colts handily in their last home game. Detroit lost out on a chance at winning the NFC North with a loss at Green Bay on Sunday but it played a very respectable game against a Packers team that is unbeatable at home. The Lions have dropped three straight against the number which is also factoring into this line and at 4-4 on the road, they have been solid away from home. The Lions come in with the better defense and they fall into a solid situation because of it as we play on teams in the second half of the season that are allowing between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg. This situation is 50-24 ATS (67.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Dallas is just 8-19 ATS in 27 games as a favorite under Jason Garrett and while Ndamukong Suh has been suspended, the line should only inflate more. Detroit has an excellent chance to win this one outright but we will gladly grab the generous points. 10* (101) Detroit Lions |
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01-04-15 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa -10.5 | Top | 58-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Northern Iowa did not open up MVC play as expected as it went into Evansville as a favorite and lost its conference opener. It was especially disheartening after the Panthers built a 16-point lead in the first half only to see it get completely erased. The Panthers bench, which entered the game eighth in the nation with 33.1 ppg, scored just 22 points against the Purple Aces but I expect a bounce back today especially heading home where they are 6-0 on the season. We should see another great effort on defense as Northern Iowa has limited its opposition to 57.6 ppg and has held nine of its opponents to 55 points or less. Teams are shooting 39.0 percent from the floor against the Panthers and they have held eight of their opponents to less than 40 percent shooting. Loyola-Chicago has been a pleasant surprise this season as it is off to an identical 11-2 start following a 15-point win over Bradley in its MVC opener. The Ramblers have now covered five straight lined games and while this line may seem like a big one, it is big for a reason and far from big enough. The Panthers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after a loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (840) Northern Iowa Panthers |
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01-04-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
We waited to release this game based on the questionable status of Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green as he went from questionable to doubtful to officially out as of yesterday. He is a huge impact on the offense and while Cincinnati has been practicing without him all week, it will be a big absence. Additionally, tight end Jermaine Gresham has been nursing a back injury all week and like Green, has practiced only one day. Gresham was on Friday's injury report as questionable. His playing status could be a game-time decision. Cincinnati went 1-2 against the number without Green this season including a 27-0 loss here in Indianapolis. The Colts have won four of their last five games after taking down Tennessee in the season finale after getting ripped against Dallas. Indianapolis is 6-2 at home with an early season loss that never should have happened against the Eagles and the other coming against the nemesis Patriots. The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Cincinnati one of the two playoff teams that is getting outgained on the season with Arizona being the other and we saw what happened there yesterday. The Bengals are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games coming off a divisional road loss while the Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit divisional win. 10* (108) Indianapolis Colts |
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01-03-15 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 206 | Top | 91-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
After winning the first two games of this current roadtrip against Orlando and Miami, the Sixers have lost the last four games all by at least 16 points. The defense has been to blame as they have allowed 112, 114 and 126 points in three of those losses and I expect another high scoring affair tonight. The Clippers have won three of their last four games including two straight on this current homestand and all four of these games have stayed under the total. The defense has played well the last two games but this is the type of game the Clippers may not put a full effort into and while they are an average pace team, the Sixers are the third fastest by averaging 101 possessions per game. So it would not be surprising to see Los Angeles go along with that. The last meeting here a season ago had a total of 219.5 so we are seeing a big difference this time around. The Clippers are 8-0 to the over in their last eight games after a game forcing opponent to commit eight or less turnovers while the over is 7-1 in the Sixers last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Over (515) Philadelphia 76ers/(516) Los Angeles Clippers |
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01-03-15 | St Louis Blues +130 v. San Jose Sharks | Top | 7-2 | Win | 130 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
St. Louis lost in Anaheim last night which was its second straight loss and going back, its fifth straight loss on the road. The Blues have dropped three of those by one goal or in overtime so they have had some bad fortunes along the way. This is their longest road losing streak since dropping seven in a row from Dec. 3, 2008-Jan. 2, 2009. San Jose meanwhile won its last game at Anaheim which snapped a three-game losing streak and it heads back home where it is 10-7 on the season. The Sharks have won four straight in this series going back to last season and that includes a win here exactly two weeks ago where it was a -130 favorite and now the price is significantly higher so we will be grabbing a great deal of value. St. Louis is 13-4 against the money line in its last 17 road games after having lost two of their last three games while San Jose is just 2-7 this season coming off a road win. 10* (19) St. Louis Blues |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 45 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
We have been waiting on this one primarily due to trying to get further information on the status of Le'Veon Bell but the news has not changed as his still has not practiced and will be a gametime decision tomorrow night. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley said Bell could play against the Ravens even if he does not practice this week. This is a big deal as far as the total goes as if he does not play or if he is limited, the passing game will become more critical which certainly favors the over. This series has gone over seven of the last nine meetings but if you look at the previous closing totals, the total for this week is more than a field goal higher than eight of those which draws some questions. Since 2008, there have been 15 meetings between these two teams and only two of those final scores would have been over the 45 posted here. The last meeting was one of those that went over the number and this one sets up as another high scoring game. This total could be placed higher but the recent runs is keeping it in check as Baltimore has stayed under the total in four straight games while the Steelers have stayed under in three straight games. When it comes to Steelers playoff football, you think defense but in reality, they have gone over the total in 21 of 29 playoff games since 1992 and while that has no bearing here, it shows that defense is not necessarily the strength in the playoffs. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 44-15 (74.6 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (103) Baltimore Ravens/(104) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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01-03-15 | Richmond +7 v. Davidson | Top | 67-81 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
We lost with Richmond on Wednesday as it fell at home against Northeastern, its second straight home loss in the role of the favorite. Now the Spiders hit the road in search of their first true road win as they come in 0-4 but now the roles have reversed as they are catching a big number today. Part of the reason is the two-game losing streak but also the fact that Richmond is 1-9 against the number including seven straight ATS losses and that is where we get tremendous value. Davidson is also coming off a loss but it was a respectable 11-point setback at Virginia and the Wildcats covered once again, their seventh straight cashed ticket. So we are set up with contrarian angles on both sides and we also have a contrarian situation in play as we play against home teams as a favorite or pickem with a winning percentage of .800 or better coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (587) Richmond Spiders |
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01-03-15 | Arizona Cardinals v. Carolina Panthers -4.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 102 h 35 m | Show |
*NFC WILD CARD PLAYOFFS Saturday, January 3rd, 4:35 PM ET* The first game of Wild Card weekend is definitely the lamest of the bunch as 6-8-1 Carolina hosts Arizona that went from a possible bye to having to play on the road. But I think it is a solid betting opportunity as we have two teams going in opposite directions. Carolina comes in on a four-game winning streak and the defense that carried the Panthers last season and was no where to be found early in the season has been the strength. They have allowed just 10.8 ppg over that stretch and facing an Arizona offense that has scored 18 points or less in seven straight games, it should remain powerful. Drew Stanton could feasibly be back for this one as he is listed as day-to-day and is improving but his numbers have not been very good so while it would be an upgrade from Ryan Lindley, it is not a big upgrade. On the other side, Cam Newton has been up and down this season but is coming off a solid game against Atlanta where he didn't have to throw much and he is the type of quarterback that can give the Cardinals fits. Russell Wilson tore Arizona apart for 339 yards passing and 88 yards rushing and Newton is capable of big numbers both ways. The Panthers have outgained six straight opponents and that is what you want in backing a team heading into the playoffs. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed no turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. This situation is 39-16 ATS (70.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (106) Carolina Panthers |
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01-03-15 | Rhode Island v. St. Louis +7.5 | Top | 65-53 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
It has been an up and down season for St. Louis which is coming off a loss to Vanderbilt in its last game on Wednesday following a three-game winning streak. The Billikens are on a four-game winless streak against the number and that is inflating the number today as this line opened at 5.5 and has already been moved two points. Additionally. St. Louis has yet to cover a game at home, going 0-4 ATS which sets up a typical contrarian play. Rhode Island has won three straight games to improve to 8-3 on the season but hits the road where it is 2-3 compared to 6-0 at home. Rhode Island was picked ninth in the Atlantic 10 preseason coaches and media poll after finishing 11th in conference play last season with a 5-11 mark so there is nothing to get very excited about with this team. The Rams are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games after three straight games allowing a shooting percentage of .400 or less. 10* (562) St. Louis Billikens |
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01-03-15 | East Carolina v. Florida -7 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Florida is 6-5 and would be 7-5 if not for its game against Idaho being canceled early in the season and there is a lot at stake for the Gators as they are playing for their coaches and their futures with the program. Not only does Florida want to prove that it deserves respect with a 7-5 record, the players also want to make sure incoming head coach Jim McElwain is well-aware that they are talented and prepared to make an impact in 2015. after not going to a bowl game last season, the Gators will be highly motivated to win this one. This is a difficult spot for East Carolina as it is still trying to recover but its season ending loss against Central Florida on a last second hail mary. East Carolina comes in with a high powered offense but will be facing its toughest opposing defense of the season and will also be facing the elements as the weather may play a factor in slowing the Pirates down. The Gators are ranked eighth in the nation in total defense, they hold opponents to 4.45 yppl, have allowed opposing offenses just 23 touchdowns and have yielded 311.0 ypg. On the other side, despite its struggles, Florida's offense has been an efficient scorer in the red zone, converting 38-of-42 opportunities (.905) which is good for third in the SEC and 12th nationally. East Carolina will be without top running back Breon Allen who hurt his knee Wednesday as well as two key defensive players, All-AAC nose tackle Terry Williams and safety Domonique Lennon, who were ruled ineligible. 10* (274) Florida Gators |
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01-02-15 | Oklahoma State v. Washington -6 | Top | 30-22 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Oklahoma St. falls into the category of a below average team that was fortunate enough to make it to a bowl game because of conference affiliations. We won with the Cowboys in their regular season finale against rival Oklahoma as they won outright to become bowl eligible but it was a fortunate outright win as they returned a punt 92 yards with under a minute left to force overtime. Still, Oklahoma St. was outgained by the Sooners which was the case over its last seven games and by an average of 164.9 ypg and that alone tells you this is not a very good football team. Washington finished 7-5 and comes in riding a two-game winning streak. All five losses came against Pac 12 bowl teams and all of those teams have at least eight wins on the season so there is nothing weak about the record for the Huskies. Expectations were average coming into the season as Washington went 9-4 last season but brought back just 14 starters and lost most of its star power on offense. The big factor here is that the Huskies want to carry some positive momentum into next season and they have the coach that can do that with Chris Peterson in his first bowl game with the Huskies and we saw what he did with Boise St. in the postseason. His teams are 10-2 ATS in 12 games against teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game while Oklahoma St. is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games against winning teams. 10* (272) Washington Huskies |
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01-02-15 | Washington Wizards +7.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Bradley Beal as he injured a toe in the Wizards last game at Dallas. They lost by 27 points in that one as the Mavericks built an 18-point halftime lead and never looked back so we can expect a bounce back tonight. Washington is off to a 22-9 start and while it has played a relatively easy schedule, the fact it is 7-3 against the Western Conference including wins over the Rockets, Clippers and Pelicans so they can hang with some solid opposition. The Thunder are looking to make a playoff push after a poor start to the season because of injuries and they have won three of their last four games including a win over Phoenix in overtime New Year's Eve. I feel Oklahoma City is overvalued however as it is a public team to begin with but should not be favored this much over a quality team. Case in point, the Thunder were favored by 6.5 points at home against Charlotte the day after Christmas and now they are favored by a bigger number against a team that is 13 games better than the Hornets. In the game here last season, Washington was getting only one point more than it is getting tonight and this year's version is much better than last year's version that took the floor here in November. Here, we play on road underdogs after a loss by 20 points or more going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 45-15 ATS (75 percent) since 1996. 10* (811) Washington Wizards |
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01-02-15 | Montreal Canadiens v. New Jersey Devils +120 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
It has been a tough start to the season for New Jersey as its 33 points are third fewest in the Eastern Conference but the schedulemakers have done the Devils no favors as they have played 23 road games compared to just 15 home games. Granted, they have not been able to take advantage of home ice as they are just 5-11 but they are in a great spot tonight. They are coming off a loss at Detroit on New Year's Eve which was their eighth scoring game that went under the total and they are 20-5 over their last 25 games following six or more consecutive under and this includes a win over Pittsburgh in their last home game. Montreal is on its fourth game of this five-game roadtrip and after winning the last three games, that puts the Canadiens in a tough spot here. Additionally, they travel to Pittsburgh tomorrow night in search of some revenge following a 4-0 loss to the Penguins in the first meeting this season. The Canadiens are 2-6 in their last eight games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game and they fall into a negative situation where we play against road favorites against the money line after allowing two goals or less in four straight games going up against an opponent after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game. This situation is 86-70 (55.1 percent) since 1996. and has netted a solid 45.8 units thanks to the underdog prices. 10* (58) New Jersey Devils |
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01-02-15 | Iowa +3.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Coming into the season, Tennessee was the only team in the nation that had to replace its entire offensive and defensive lines, so going 6-6 and making it to a bowl game is a huge achievement. The Volunteers are going to be good, very good, in the coming years but I do not think they are there quite yet and nor do I think they should be favored in a bowl game. The conference affiliation has a lot to do with this but the SEC has shown a lot of weakness as its teams are just 5-5 thus far with Tennessee and Florida remaining and the Volunteers reside in the weak East Division on top of it. One of the Volunteers win was over FCS Chattanooga, another against 5-7 Kentucky and the victory that got them bowl eligible came over 3-9 Vanderbilt by just a touchdown. Tennessee is outgaining opponents by just 3.1 ypg and while Iowa comes in at 7-5, it is outgaining opponents by 63.8 ypg and has been outgained just once over its last six games. The Hawkeyes lost to Nebraska in overtime to close the regular season, their second straight loss by three points or less and third overall on the season. Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home following a loss and head coach Kirk Ferentz knows how to get this team prepared, covering five of their last six bowl games, winning five of those outright. Tennessee meanwhile is just 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 games against winning teams while going 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. 10* (267) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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01-02-15 | Washington State +15 v. Stanford | Top | 56-71 | Push | 0 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
It has been a tough start to the season for New Jersey as its 33 points are third fewest in the Eastern Conference but the schedulemakers have done the Devils no favors as they have played 23 road games compared to just 15 home games. Granted, they have not been able to take advantage of home ice as they are just 5-11 but they are in a great spot tonight. They are coming off a loss at Detroit on New Year's Eve which was their eighth scoring game that went under the total and they are 20-5 over their last 25 games following six or more consecutive under and this includes a win over Pittsburgh in their last home game. Montreal is on its fourth game of this five-game roadtrip and after winning the last three games, that puts the Canadiens in a tough spot here. Additionally, they travel to Pittsburgh tomorrow night in search of some revenge following a 4-0 loss to the Penguins in the first meeting this season. The Canadiens are 2-6 in their last eight games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game and they fall into a negative situation where we play against road favorites against the money line after allowing two goals or less in four straight games going up against an opponent after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game. This situation is 86-70 (55.1 percent) since 1996. and has netted a solid 45.8 units thanks to the underdog prices. 10* (58) New Jersey Devils |
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01-01-15 | Ohio State v. Alabama UNDER 58.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
The first year of the College Football Playoffs definitely came with some controversy but in the end, we have four very capable teams of taking home the National Championship. The second matchup is the Sugar Bowl between Ohio St. and Alabama. The Buckeyes snuck into the final four thanks to a 59-0 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship as they leapfrogged TCU and now face another stiff test. Alabama had no issues with Missouri in the SEC Championship and it is a big favorite to make it to the championship game on January 12th. We will be looking at the total here however as I feel it is too big of a number with two outstanding defenses. Sure, both offenses can score a bunch and we have seen that of late with Ohio St. going over the total in three straight games and Alabama going over the total in its last two games. Those five games were basically surpassed by the offense that rolled to at least 42 points in each game. But taking a look at the defenses faced tells the story with the exception of Wisconsin which decided no to show up. Now the offenses will be facing the 10th ranked Crimson Tide defense and the 15th ranked Buckeyes defense. And I think these defenses can dictate the game and we are getting a very favorable number to work with. Both teams fall into a similar situation where we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 8.3 or more ypa, in non-conference games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (263) Ohio St. Buckeyes/(264) Alabama Crimson Tide |
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01-01-15 | Sacramento Kings v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 209 | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
The possibility of a DeMarcus Cousins suspension caused this line to come out late but whether or not he plays, this game should turn into a trackmeet. Sacramento has lost two straight games and has allowed at least 101 points in eight straight games but is coming off a poor offensive effort yesterday against Boston which will reverse out here. Sacramento managed just 36.8 percent shooting including going 2-15 from long range against a bad Celtics defense but now it faces an even worse stop unit. Minnesota has allowed at least 100 points in nine straight games, all of which have been losses but the last three have stayed under the total which helps add value today. Both offenses should rise to the occasion today against these poor defenses that allow 108.7 ppg and 104.1 ppg. From a pace standpoint, both teams are fast as they are two of just nine teams in the NBA that average 99 or more possessions per game. The over is 14-6 in the Kings last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while the over is 13-6 in the Timberwolves last 19 games playing on one day rest. 10* Over (503) Sacramento Kings/(504) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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01-01-15 | Florida State +9 v. Oregon | Top | 20-59 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
The first year of the College Football Playoffs definitely came with some controversy but in the end, we have four very capable teams of taking home the National Championship. The first matchup is the Rose Bowl between reigning champion Florida St. and Oregon. The Seminoles have lost three times since mid-2011, going 34-3 over their last 37 games with two of those losses coming by a single point. They are riding a 29-game winning streak but looking at this line, no one seems to be buying into it. Florida St. plain and simple finds ways to win and it remains the team to beat until it loses. It will be a challenge against Oregon for sure as the Ducks come in at 12-1 and they too come in a model of consistency with just four losses over the last three years. But as good as they have been, they should not be laying this kind of wood especially to a team that has not been an underdog since Week Four of 2011, a span of 50 games. And not only are they getting points but they are getting points greater than one possession which makes this a sure take. Luckily, no suspensions have been given out which is always a concern in these games so playing this one late didn’t matter but it is a chance well taken. Oregon has covered eight straight while Florida St. has failed to cover in three straight which is adding to the value. 10* (261) Florida St. Seminoles |
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01-01-15 | Wisconsin +7 v. Auburn | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
While players tend to get up when their coach who they respected a great deal is fired, case in point Nebraska, players tend to also rise to the occasion when coaches betray them on move on and that will be the case with Wisconsin. Head coach Gary Anderson in a bizarre move left Wisconsin to take over the head coaching job at Oregon St. after Mike Riley left to become the new coach at Nebraska. AD Barry Alvarez will be on the sidelines for the Badgers for his second bowl game in three years as he also stepped in for Brett Bielema when he bolted to Arkansas. He will be the motivator as Wisconsin tries to bounce back from a 59-0 drubbing against Ohio St. in the Big Ten Championship and the Badgers should bounce back just fine. Auburn didn't exactly close with a flourish as it dropped three of its final four games and is now being asked to lay a touchdown against a very strong team. The Tigers will be without receiver D'haquille Williams who was suspended for this game for a violation of team rules and that is going to hurt the offense for sure. Wisconsin is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while going 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. 10* (255) Wisconsin Badgers |
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12-31-14 | Georgia Tech +7 v. Mississippi State | Top | 49-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
They say the best way to strop Georgia Tech is with extra time to prepare and based on its bowl record, that seems to be true as the Yellow Jackets are 1-5 in bowl games under head coach Paul Johnson. That can certainly be attributed to their opponents having at least two weeks to prepare for the triple option but it can also be attributed to the situation at hand. That being said, the lone Georgia Tech bowl win came in 2012 against USC which looked to have packed it in following a disappointing ending to the season where it lost four of its final five games heading into the postseason. While not as big of a skid, Mississippi St. is definitely in a down mood following losses in two of its last three games to from National Championship dreams to just an above average season. The Bulldogs made great strides this season and they have already guaranteed themselves 10 wins for the first time since 1999. They are 3-1 under Dan Mullen in bowl games including a win last season so there is not a ton of motivation heading into the Orange Bowl. The biggest factor is that it is another SEC team that has an inflated line because of what conference it is in. The Yellow Jackets won both games outright this season when getting a touchdown or more and they are getting the same amount they got in that USC bowl game with the four losses coming as a favorite or a shorter underdog. 10* (253) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
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12-31-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. San Antonio Spurs -3.5 | Top | 93-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
This line came out late due to status of Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard, neither of which will be playing tonight. It has been a struggle for San Antonio of late as injuries have taken their toll and they are coming off another loss last night in Memphis to drop them to 4-9 over their last 13 games. They have been inconsistent on both ends of the floor and speaking of inconsistent, the main offensive production of three players has been just as bad. After combining for 55 points in the win over Houston on Sunday, the trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green combined for just 21 points in the loss against Memphis last night. They obviously need those three to step up in the absence of Parker and Leonard. New Orleans won for us last night over Phoenix and it was a grind as the Pelicans won by four points. They are now a game over .500 on the season but while they are 10-4 at home they are just 6-11 on the road and they are in a difficult spot coming off a win and San Antonio coming off a loss. While New Orleans has covered every game in the second of a back-to-back set, the motivational edge for the Spurs is too big as they need to right the ship as well as get some payback from a loss against the Pelicans the day after Christmas. 10* (710) San Antonio Spurs |
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12-31-14 | Indiana v. Nebraska -3 | Top | 70-65 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
We are about to flip the calendar and Indiana has yet to play a true road game but that changes today as the Hoosiers travel to Nebraska to take on the Huskers in the Big Ten opener for both teams. Indiana is coming off a loss against Georgetown in overtime at MSG on Saturday to fall to 10-3 but it has been a solid start which many did not see coming. Now the Hoosiers get a true road test. While Nebraska may not seem like an intimidating place to play, Pinnacle Bank Arena can be very tough on opponents and it is about time that the Huskers take advantage after three straight poor home games. Back-to-back losses against Creighton and Incarnate Word were followed up by a win over Cincinnati but it was just by one point and Nebraska shot just 32.7 percent from the floor so it was a fortunate win. This is the first home game for the Huskers since December 13th and Nebraska has won eight straight conference home games at Pinnacle Bank Arena, which is the longest streak since 1965-66. Nebraska's turnaround last year was keyed by an emphasis on the defensive end of the court and that has continued during the early portion of the 2014-15 season as the Huskers have held opponents to 38 percent shooting, including 29 percent from three-point range. This includes holding its last four opponents to a combined 34 percent shooting and 55.2 ppg. 10* (738) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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12-31-14 | Boise State v. Arizona UNDER 68 | Top | 38-30 | Push | 0 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
This is the highest total of the three New Year's Eve games and we will take advantage of that by playing the under. While this game features two offenses that can move the ball and score a ton of points, it also features two underrated defenses. While Boise St. and Arizona are ranked 39th and 103rd respectively in total defense, it seems like the Broncos have the far better defense when looking at yppl, Boise St. remains around the same ranking while the Wildcats jump up to 68th which is a better indication of where they stand. As far as the matchup, Boise St. is expected to run the ball a lot behind Jay Ajayi and for Arizona, with quarterback Anu Solomon struggling against Oregon and eventually getting benched, it is unlikely the Wildcats are going to set him free. The Broncos had a stretch of seven straight unders prior to their MWC Championship and one look at the opposition will tell you why. Both teams fall into a phenomenal late season bowl game situation that favors a low scoring game as we play the under in the second half of the season on a neutral field where the total is between 63.5 and 70 in a game involving two teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, in non-conference games. This situation is 24-4 (85.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons with the average score being just 51.3 ppg. The under is 7-2-1 in the Broncos last 10 games in December while the under is 6-1 in the Wildcats last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (251) Boise St. Broncos/(252) Arizona Wildcats |
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12-31-14 | Georgia v. Kansas State -4 | Top | 50-46 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Down four with two seconds to play, Texas Southern made an improbable comeback to defeat Kansas St. by a bucket and I expect the Wildcats to take their frustrations out on Georgia today. While the Tigers victory seems like a major upset, which it certainly can be considered such, they went to Michigan St. and defeated the Spartans just eight days prior to that so they are no pushover. That loss is giving us some value with this line for Kansas St. as it can definitely use the victory prior to opening Big XII action at Oklahoma St. on Saturday. That loss was the first at home this season and snapped a 38-game home winning streak. Going back, Kansas St. has not lost back-to-back home games since February 13 & 25, 2012 and consecutive non-conference home games since December 8 & 17, 1987. Kansas St. is on a 71-4 run at home in non-conference play, including a 69-3 mark during the regular season. Georgia comes in off a triple-overtime victory over Mercer, its fourth straight victory following a pair of losses. The Bulldogs are off to a solid 7-3 start and this is just their third road game of the season and first since December 2nd. This is the biggest test to date and they are catching Kansas St. at the wrong time. The Wildcats are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing against a team with a winning record. 10* (744) Kansas St. Wildcats |
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