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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-29-18 | Liberty v. New Mexico -7 | Top | 52-43 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW MEXICO LOBOS for our MWC Game of the Month. Liberty flamed out for us last Saturday, pun intended, as they were soundly defeated at home against North Texas. The Mean Green dominated from start to finish as they scored touchdowns on their first two possessions and after Liberty cut it to seven points, the Flames crossed midfield only two more times in their next eight possessions. Liberty did get inside the Mean Green 15-yard line twice but tossed an interception and missed a field goal. North Texas racked up 532 yards of offense including 346 yards rushing on 47 carries (7.4 ypc). Now they hit the road as a short underdog and they were soundly defeated in their only road game at Army. New Mexico is off to a 2-1 start with the lone loss coming at Wisconsin which was undoubtedly expected. After a pair of bowl games in 2015 and 2016, the Lobos struggled last season with a 3-9 record as they only returned three starters. One thing to note though is that three of those losses were by three points or less so they were more competitive than the record showed and they have a lot more experience back this season. New Mexico quarterback Tevaka Tuioti got hurt in that Wisconsin game early and missed the New Mexico St. game but is back this week which happens to come after a bye week to give him even more time to get healthy. Tuioti, who has thrown for 382 yards and five touchdowns with one interception on 18-of-29 passing, is a duel-threat that won the job with his athleticism. The running game showed positive signs against the Aggies as redshirt senior running back Tyrone Owens rushed for a game-high 110 yards and a touchdown, while junior running back Ahmari Davis had four rushing touchdowns on 74 yards. Here, we play against teams that are averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc going up against teams averaging between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc, after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (168) New Mexico Lobos |
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09-28-18 | Dodgers v. Giants +176 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Giants are significant underdogs tonight despite having a massive starting pitching advantage as Los Angeles is favored big due to its needing to win based on the National League playoff race. The Dodgers dropped the final two games against Arizona and things are dicey at this point as they enter the series with a chance to win the National League West, capture a National League Wild Card spot or miss the playoff entirely, all to be determined within three games against a team that has beaten them nine of 16 this season. The Giants season has been over for a while but they have one goal left and that is to play spoiler against their hated rivals. They have lost six of their last seven games, including a three-game sweep last week at the hands of the Cardinals, who gained ground on the Dodgers in the process. The major problem has been on the road where San Francisco has the second worst record in the National League but it has been dependable at home with a 42-36 record and it is 19-8 after having lost six or seven of its last eight games this season. Madison Bumgarner specifically asked to pitch in this series as he had his final start of the year pushed back from Wednesday to Friday so you know he is going to be dealing. The fact it is at home is where the pitching edge comes into play as after a rough outing here against the Cardinals on July 8, Bumgarner has a 0.79 ERA over his last five home starts including three straight of allowing no runs. Hyun-Jin Ryu has not allowed a run over his last two starts but both of those were at home where he has a 1.15 ERA. In contrast, he has a 4.15 ERA on the road. 10* (914) San Francisco Giants |
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09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane +14 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 34 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CFB Friday Game of the Month. Coming into the season, I expected Tulane to be one of the most improved teams in the country and while it sits at 1-3, that can still happen. Last season, Tulane was three points away from its first bowl game since 2013 as it lost the regular season finale by a field goal to SMU when the Mustangs scored a touchdown with two minutes left. That gave the Green Wave plenty of motivation in the offseason and they will need to finish games better than they did a year ago, when they dropped four games by six or fewer points. Two of three losses have come by a touchdown or less and one of those in overtime and while the other loss was by 43 points, it was against Ohio St. Memphis is off to a 3-1 start with the three blowout victories coming against garbage teams and the one loss coming against Navy, which is not very good either. Memphis went 10-3 last season and because of the high powered offense, they are huge road favorites which is way too big of an adjustment. The Tigers have played a schedule ranked No. 167 in the nation so they have yet to be tested and while their offense is very solid, their defense is not. They could not put away South Alabama last week as they allowed 467 total yards and they were fortunate that the Jaguars fumbled the ball twice, both inside the Memphis 15-yard line so the game could have been even closer. This is the breakout game that is needed for the Tulane offense. Quarterback Jonathan Banks will start at quarterback again as he continues to look for the form he exhibited at the end of 2017. He ranks eighth in the American Athletic Conference in passing efficiency, completing 49.5 percent of his passes for 792 yards and five touchdowns with one interception. He also has lost three fumbles and been sacked 14 times. The contrarian situation here is to play against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that are outgaining their opponents by 125 or more ypg, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (106) Tulane Green Wave |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Month. This is a huge game for the Vikings as they are 1-1-1 and while it is still early, not picking up a win in three straight games and having to travel to Philadelphia for their next game would put them in a tough spot. The Rams are off to a 3-0 start and they have the edge here based on the short week and travel and while the first three Thursday night games have been won and covered by the home team, we see that switching up this week, at least the cover part. This line is inflated due to recency bias and because the home team has dominated there nights. Taking nothing away from the Rams as this team is extremely talented but while they have outscored opponents 102-36, they have not exactly played a brutal schedule. Their opponents, Oakland, Arizona and the Los Angeles Chargers, are 1-8 overall. The Vikings will look to bounce back after the ugly 27-6 home loss to Buffalo. Minnesota, a 17-point favorite, fell behind 27-0 at halftime. While many consider the Rams to have the best roster in the NFL, Minnesota is not far behind from top to bottom. Last week was brutal and can be chalked up as an aberration. In the loss to Buffalo, Pro Football Focus reported that the Vikings offensive line surrendered 29 pressures (two sacks, three hits and 24 hurries), the highest total of any team in Week Three so it is pretty clear Minnesota came in complexly unfocused. While this is a tough travel spot for the Vikings, they have done a good job to accommodate. They left Tuesday evening following practice, a day earlier than they usually fly to road games, to try to better acclimate themselves to the two-hour time change. Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins ranks second in the NFL with 965 passing yards. In September games since the start of 2017, he has thrown for 1,749 yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions, totaling a 101.5 passer rating. 10* (101) Minnesota Vikings |
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09-27-18 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL -17.5 | Top | 10-47 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. In trying to get as much information for this game, it has been announced by North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora that Nathan Elliott will get the start at quarterback for the Tar Heels over Chazz Surratt, who is back following a three-game suspension. Elliott has struggled as he has passed for 670 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions through the first three games. He did have a solid game last week against Pittsburgh but he is taking a massive step up in the opposing defense here. Pressuring the quarterback is something Miami does extremely well and the North Carolina quarterbacks could be in for a very long night. Through the first four games, Miami has 46 tackles for loss to lead the nation. They had 111 in 2017 and are on pace for 138 this season. If Miami gets out to an early lead as they should as a prohibitive favorite at home, that will set up the Hurricanes pass rushers nicely. On the other side, Miami coach Mark Richt declined to say which quarterback would start on Thursday. Malik Rosier opened the season as the starter and he struggled through the first three games so freshman N'Kosi Perry got the nod last week against FIU and he was very solid so likely will see both quarterbacks again here as well. It is not all about the quarterback for the Hurricanes and we should see a healthy dose of the ground game which can flourish in this matchup. Over the last two games, North Carolina has allowed 224.0 rushing ypg as East Carolina ran for 220 yards, while Pittsburgh ran for 228 yards. Miami is averaging 209.5 ypg on the ground. The Hurricanes have won the yardage battle in each game this season, even in the loss to LSU, and they are outgaining opponents by 225.5 ypg. The Hurricanes are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (104) Miami Hurricanes |
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09-27-18 | Braves -112 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We won with the Mets last night but that was with Jacob deGrom and the starting pitching difference for tonight is over 4.5 runs as far as ERA is concerned. So while last night was all about deGrom, the real Mets come back into play tonight and the results are not good. They are still nine games under .500 at home and despite the win last night, the Mets are 3-16 in 19 home games this season against teams outscoring their opponent by 0.5 or more rpg. Additionally, New York is 1-6 in its last seven games when its opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. If the season ended today, the Cubs would host the Wild Card winner and the Braves would host the Rockies in the two NLDS matchups but Atlanta has only a half-game on Colorado so the final four games of the season will determine home field so these are huge. Atlanta is 30-10 in its last 40 games against National League teams with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse while going 10-4 in its last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. The pitcher referred to earlier is Jason Vargas who has been throwing batting practice all season long. To his credit, he has pitched better as his 8.60 ERA before the All Star break has been nearly cut in half as he has a 4.37 ERA over his last nine starts but that is still nothing to get excited about. Atlanta is hitting .260 on the road against left-handed pitching which is the highest average in the National League. Julio Teheran has been pretty steady this season as proven by his 1.19 WHIP that drops to 1.15 on the road. In four starts against New York this season, he has a 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP and the Mets are 4-15 at home this season against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. 10* (953) Atlanta Braves |
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09-26-18 | A's +107 v. Mariners | Top | 9-3 | Win | 107 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Oakland lost a tough one last night as it allowed a pinch-hit, two-run home run in the 11th inning which eliminated the A's from winning the American League West. They have clinched a Wild Card spot and they are still in the mix for getting to play it at home as they trail the Yankees by 2.5 games so they likely need to win out and hope New York falters over the weekend against the Red Sox. Despite the loss last night, Oakland is 33-11 in its last 44 games against American League teams with an on base percentage .320 or worse. Seattle has struggled down the stretch by going just 8-23 in its last 31 games following a win. While he does not have enough starts to qualify, Edwin Jackson would be a candidate for comeback player of the year. For a team starved with quality starting pitching, Jackson has stepped up big time as he has a 3.18 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 16 starts. For some reason, one team he has struggled against is Texas as he has a 10.03 ERA in three starts against the Rangers and take those out, and his ERA is 2.13 in his other 13 starts. Oakland is 13-1 in his 14 starts against American League teams with an on base percentage of .330 or worse while going 6-0 in his last six starts after allowing five runs or more in the previous game. Felix Hernandez will be making his final start of the season as he has not pitched since September 8 due to a strained hamstring. Hernandez has struggled much of the year, going 8-13 with a 5.46 ERA, which is more than a full run higher than last season's career-high 4.36 ERA. It is a short line tonight based on who he is and not what he has done and on the season, Seattle is 0-8 in his eight starts against teams averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game. 10* (927) Oakland A's |
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09-25-18 | Pirates v. Cubs -137 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Chicago lost the series opener last night as the offense could manage just one run and it has scored three runs or less in nine consecutive home games dating back to August 28. The Cubs have averaged only 1.9 rpg over this nine-game home stretch and while the opposing starter tonight may seem intimidating, that is far from the case. The Cubs are now just a game and a half ahead of Milwaukee in the National League Central and 4.5 games up on St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot with a closing three-game series looming against the Cardinals. The Cubs are 23-8 in their last 31 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Pirates continue to play hard as they close out the season knowing no playoffs in sight. They are 7-2 over their last nine games, but they are still five games under .500 on the road including wins in three straight where they have allowed a total of four runs. The name Chris Archer is keeping this number down way lower than it should be as he has been a bust since coming to Pittsburgh. He has a 4.86 ERA in nine starts and while he is coming off a quality start last time out, it was against the Royals so that is not saying much. He has been decent in pitcher-friendly PNC Park but he has been horrible on the road with a 6.12 ERA and the Pirates have dropped his last four road starts. Mike Montgomery comes back home for the first time since August 2nd as he has made five straight road starts He has allowed three runs or less in all six home starts for a 2.70 ERA and the Pirates are 7-21 in their last 28 road games against left-handed starters. 10* (956) Chicago Cubs |
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09-24-18 | Phillies v. Rockies -145 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB National League Game of the Month. A three-game sweep over Arizona enabled the Rockies to finish 4-5 on their most recent roadtrip which got off to a horrible start. The Rockies remain 1.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West while sitting 1.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second National League Wild Card spot. Basically, they need to keep winning and the schedule is in their favor as the final two series are against teams that will not be making the playoffs. Headed back to Coors Field, Colorado is 30-13 in its last 43 home game which is the best winning percentage over that stretch. Additionally, the Rockies are 5-0 in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. The Phillies playoff chances ended over the weekend as they were swept against the Braves in Atlanta. It has been a miserable end to the season as the Phillies were 63-48 on August 5th, which was the second best record in the National League, but since then they are 15-29, which is the worst record in the National League over that stretch. Philadelphia is now 15 games under .500 on the road as it has the fourth worst road record in the league and more recent, the Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Jon Gray is pitching in place of Tyler Anderson and he is coming off a pair of poor outings but those were against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. He has been pitching much better after the break as he came in with a 3.41 ERA in his previous nine starts. Zach Eflin has tossed two straight solid outings as well but with no playoff possibility, he will not be stretched out. Aaron Nola was limited to 90 pitches yesterday and the Phillies are not going to take a risk with the young arms. 10* (908) Colorado Rockies |
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09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. Coming into this game, many would have thought these records would have been reversed with Pittsburgh being undefeated and Tampa Bay being winless. Instead, the Steelers are winless and are in dire need of a victory before their Sunday night showdown against the Ravens and we feel they step it up big time on the road. Despite not picking up a victory, Pittsburgh has outgained both opponents and it can take advantage of a very soft defense tonight. One thing working in their favor is that the game will be played in prime time as the Steelers have won their past 10 prime time games, including their last five on the road. Line movement has been working in their favor as well as the Steelers got as high as three-point favorites in some spots, but they are now either an underdog or a pickem across the board. Those type of line movements are often a market overreaction to recent history and that is usually the case when they occur in primetime games. Tampa Bay is off to a surprising 2-0 start behind the arm of Ryan Fitzpatrick and an offense that leads the NFL in total yardage and scoring offense. The problem is the defense as Tampa Bay is No. 31 in yards allowed and No. 29 in yppl and making matters worse, the Buccaneers will be without Vita Vea and Beau Allen, which are two significant injuries along the defensive line. The Steelers defense got lit up last week as they tried to disguise things while trying to matchup against the Chiefs pre-snap motion but they will keep in less complicated this week. Pittsburgh gets cornerback Joe Haden back tonight which is a huge lift for the secondary. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games going up against an opponent after gaining 50 or fewer rushing yards last game. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (489) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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09-23-18 | Royals +112 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 112 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Even though the Royals possess the second worst record in baseball, arguably the wrong team is favored here. Kansas City has dropped two of three to open this series and are on a 1-6 run, but it has a distinct edge on the hill this afternoon and can take advantage of a slumping Detroit offense. The Tigers are not playing much better as they are 4-9 over their last 13 games and have lost four straight games following a win. Additionally, the Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 home games. Brad Keller gets the ball for the Royals and he is coming off an average start against the Pirates but that was the first time in seven starts he allowed more than two earned runs. Overall, he has a 3.17 ERA in 19 starts and the Royals are 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. Detroit counters with Daniel Norris and he has struggled this season with a 5.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in six starts. He was able to put together his longest outing of the season last time out but it reached just 5.1 innings and to add to the disadvantage, Detroit is averaging only 3.0 rpg in his starts. Here, we play against American League favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher that are hitting .260 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better. This situation is 39-18 (68.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (971) Kansas City Royals |
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09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 42 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Game of the Month. We played against Carolina last week as it lost in Atlanta but we will be backing the Panthers as they head back home in a favorable contrarian matchup. Their first home game resulted in an eight-point win over the Cowboys as the defense dominated for three and a half quarters. Carolina had a streak of 21 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher snapped against the Falcons when Tevin Coleman ran for 107 yards, but the Panthers catch a break this week as Joe Mixon is out with a knee injury so Cincinnati has to turn to Giovani Bernard who has only three 100-yard rushing games in his career. Offensively for Carolina, the key will be not be Cam Newton but Christian McCaffrey. His strength goes against a Cincinnati weakness as while he is a talented rusher, what sets him apart is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and make people miss in space and the Bengals linebackers are not good in pass coverage. Cincinnati has been among the early-season surprises in the NFL, winning their first two games by identical 34-23 scores. The Bengals are ranked third in scoring but just No. 18 in total offense so that offense may not be as good as one may think. They have benefitted from a defensive touchdown and despite the 2-0 record, they have been outgained in both games. The defense is tied for No. 27 in total defense so of the seven 2-0 teams, this could be the biggest fraud. Carolina is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games over seven years after allowing 6.5 or more yppl in their previous game while going 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. 10* (464) Carolina Panthers |
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09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Taking nothing away from what the Chiefs have done to start the season but the overreactions are hitting hard and that brings value to the other side. More than 70 percent of bets are on Kansas City, which enters Week Three as the highest-scoring offense in the NFL. Quarterback Pat Mahomes looks like he could be the real thing and everybody is loving this team right now with their impressive wins the Chargers and Steelers. But there is more to it than that and not in a good way. Kansas City has been outgained in each of the first two games due to a defense that is ranked dead last and it is not even close as it is allowing 508 ypg. While it is only two games, to put that into perspective, Tampa Bay had the worst defense last season at 378.1 ypg. The 49ers were able to pick up their first win of the season last week at home against Detroit. They did have a chance to beat Minnesota as they lost by eight points no thanks to four turnovers, one that took place in the redzone and another that was returned for a touchdown. Kansas City is one of three teams to open the season with two straight road games, Houston and Seattle being the other two, and while the public thinks that this is a huge edge for the home team, that is hardly the case. Play against home teams in Week Three after opening the season with two straight road games. This situation is 26-9-2 ATS (74.3 percent) since 2003. Making this play even stronger is the fact the Chiefs are 2-0 ATS and San Francisco is 0-2 ATS and going the opposite way in this ATS matchup in Week Three has resulted in a 68 percent winning result. 10* (479) San Francisco 49ers |
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09-22-18 | Hamilton -2.5 v. BC | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TIGER-CATS for our CFL Game of the Month. Hamilton hung with Calgary for over half of the game last week but after taking a 25-20 lead on a fumble return for a touchdown, the Tiger-Cats were outscored 23-3 to close the game. That snapped a three-game winning streak as well as a six-game streak where they outgained their opponent. They are now a game behind Ottawa in the East Division but with the playoff crossover, they are in fifth place overall and just a half-game up on Winnipeg for sixth place. B.C. has won two straight games for the first time this season but this is not a good spot to keep it going. Lions quarterback Travis Lulay got hurt two weeks against Ottawa and he tried to go last week but left the game after just two pass attempts. Jonathon Jennings will get the start and he has been as average as average can be. He opened the season as the starter when Lulay was on the shelf and he did not produce a single 200-yard passing game in three starts as he averaged 162.3 ypg with the Lions going 1-2. Making matters more difficult, he will face a Hamilton defense that leads the CFL in passing defense, allowing just 219.3 ypg. On the other side, Jeramiah Masoli is 214 yards away from his first 4,000 yard passing season in the CFL and three touchdowns short of tying his career-best of 21 in 2016. Additionally, with one more 300-plus yard game, Masoli can set a Tiger-Cats record of 10 such games. The B.C. defense has shored things up over its last three games but that is skewed based on last week when it held the hapless Alouettes to just 95 yards passing. B.C. is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after outgaining opponent by 70 or more total yards in their previous game while the Tiger-Cats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (657) Hamilton Tiger-Cats |
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09-22-18 | Troy v. UL-Monroe +5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the UL-MONROE WARHAWKS for our CFB Game of the Week. We were on the Warhawks last week as a four-touchdown underdog and it was a competitive game as they were down by just 14 points with six minutes left in the third quarter but the Aggies went on to score 24 points over the final 18 minutes of the game. UL-Monroe returns home for its conference opener after playing the last two games on the road which included an upset of Southern Mississippi. The Warhawks are capable of a big bounceback and the Trojans have a history of letdowns after big wins. Case in point last season when they defeated LSU on the road only to get bounce the following week at home against South Alabama as 19-point favorites. Troy is coming off a huge win last week at Nebraska but it was a game it never should have won, or one that Nebraska never should have lost. The difference was a fake fair catch on a punt that led to a touchdown as the Trojans were outgained by 111 total yards and lost the first down battle 22-12. Troy is expected to contend in the SBC East just like the Warhawks are expected to contend in the SBC West so the home team should have a significant edge, especially in a night game. UL-Monroe falls into a great situation where we play on teams in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses, returning eight or more offensive starters including quarterback going up against an opponent returning five or fewer defensive starters. This situation is 62-29 ATS (68.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (398) UL-Monroe Warhawks |
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09-22-18 | Brewers v. Pirates +107 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 107 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. As the season winds down, lines are adjusted based on teams that are still vying for playoff spots and we are seeing that here with the Brewers. We won with Milwaukee last night as road favorite but the pitching matchup was in it favor even though the game eventually came down to the bullpen because of a lengthy rain delay. Tonight, the Brewers have no such advantage yet they come in as a favorite as they trail the Cubs by a game and a half in the National League Central and while this is not a must win game, it is being treated like that. The Pirates had their five-game winning streak snapped last night as the bullpen allowed six runs in the sixth inning and seven runs total on four home runs. They hope to get a longer outing from the starter tonight and Trevor Williams will be up to the task. After a rough first half of the season, he has been outstanding of late, posting a 1.10 ERA in his last 11 starts since early July. He has one below average outing in St. Louis and he has allowed no earned runs in seven of the other 10 starts. Zach Davies counter for the Brewers and he is making just his fourth start since May. He has been okay as he has not allowed more than two runs in the three starts but he has lasted only five innings each time. That is not ideal after the bullpen had to go five innings last night. The Pirates are 5-1 in their last six home games against right-handed starters. 10* (904) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-22-18 | North Texas v. Liberty +13.5 | Top | 47-7 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the LIBERTY FLAMES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. North Texas is another team coming off a huge win over a Power 5 team as it rolled over Arkansas by 27 points on the road. Saying the Mean Green dominated the Razorbacks would be an overstatement however as they did outgain them, but only by 40 yards, as they benefitted from six interceptions. One that was returned for a touchdown as well as returning a punt for a touchdown. This is a big letdown spot, especially with a lookahead game against Louisiana Tech who is the leading contender in C-USA West. Liberty opened its first season at the FBS level with a blowout win over Old Dominion as an underdog. The Flames followed that up with a loss at Army that was not as bad as the final score indicated as they lost the turnover battle 3-0. They were supposed to play last week but the game was postponed due to Hurricane Florence and it actually helped as they were able to rest some nagging injuries and were able to start prepping for North Texas three days sooner. they have a high-powered offense led by quarterback Stephen Calvert who has thrown for 652 yards and six touchdowns with just one interception this season. The Flames are 7-6 in games in which head coach Turn Gill and his staff have extra time to prepare. Liberty will be out to prove itself here after applying to get into C-USA and getting denied and settling for Independent status. North Texas is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games off an upset win as an underdog while Liberty is 12-1 ATS in its lined games. 10* (402) Liberty Flames |
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09-22-18 | Akron v. Iowa State -18 | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES as part of our CFB Saturday Trifecta. Some beat writer in Ames said he could not believe that 0-2 Iowa St. is close to a three-touchdown favorite over Akron and called in incomprehensible. That is what most of the public is probably thinking after the Zips upset Northwestern last weekend as 21.5-point underdogs. But scores sometimes do not tell the true story and that is the case there as Akron trailed 21-3 at halftime but were able to generate three defensive touchdowns in the second half so it was a very misleading final. It was the first win over a current Big Ten opponent for Akron since 1894. Not a typo. Iowa St. played well last week against Oklahoma with backup quarterback Zeb Noland surprisingly shredding the Sooners defense with 360 yards passing and two touchdowns. The Cyclones managed only three points in its opener against Iowa but that is when starting quarterback Kyle Kempt got hurt and Noland was forced into the game with no preparation. In last year's game against Akron, when Iowa St. ran out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and outgained Akron, 170-34 in total yards, the lessons that followed are things that are still engrained in the Cyclones memory this year. This is going to be a very emotional game for the Cyclones and they will be honoring and playing for slain golfer Celia Barquin Arozamena and you can bet they will be giving 110 percent. Akron is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a win as a double-digit underdog while Iowa St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a loss. 9* (312) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -3.5 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -108 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Everybody is down on the Trojans and with the way they have played, rightfully so. This team is much better than what its 1-2 record shows and to its credit, the Trojans have played the sixth toughest schedule in the nation. Offensively, the line has struggled, especially last week against Texas as it did not generate any push for the running backs while allowing three sacks. The good news is the last two games were on the road and now the Trojans head home and they remain undefeated at home in 16 games during Clay Helton's tenure and they will be looking to increase that streak to 17. The Trojans are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up loss. Washington St. has rolled over its first three opponents as it has outscored Wyoming, San Jose St. and Eastern Washington by a combined score of 131-43. Those three teams have given the Cougars a strength of schedule ranking of No. 135 which is the easiest of any Pac 12 team and is the 28th easiest schedule in the nation. Washington St. brought back only four starters on offense and while it has put up a ton of yards, again, the schedule has a lot to do with that. The USC defense will be tested still but it should pass as long as it does the right things. Between Texas and Stanford, there have been far too many penalties and missed tackles the past two weeks, and if this team wants to keep any hope alive of playing in a respectable bowl game at seasons end, the defense needs to be more consistent from top to bottom. 10* (310) USC Trojans |
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09-21-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -113 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Take Colorado out of Coors Field and bad things happen to the offense. The Rockies are hitting a MLB-best .284 at home but on the road, they are hitting just .226 which is good for second worst in baseball. It is certainly showing on this roadtrip as they have scored three runs or less in all six games, averaging just 1.5 rpg. While the National League West and the Wild Card playoffs are wide open, no series this weekend is bigger than it is for the Diamondbacks. They can play themselves right back into the playoff chance or by Sunday night, they could be eliminated. Getting off to a strong start is huge and they hand the ball to their ace to do so. Zack Greinke has been great at home with a 2.43 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and in two home starts against Colorado this season, he has allowed just two runs in 13.2 innings. German Marquez has been outstanding since the All Star Break with a 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 11 starts, all of which have been quality outings but all that does is keep this number down. Here, we play on National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .255 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20. This situation is 65-32 (67 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Thursday Enforcer. Cleveland is a couple kicks away from being 2-0 on the season, instead it remains winless since December 24, 2016 as it has gone 19 games without a victory. This is one of the last big chances to grab a victory as the upcoming seven-game schedule is not easy as the Browns have three difficult road games and the four home games are against the Ravens, Chargers, Chiefs and Falcons. Cleveland was fortunate to tie with Pittsburgh as it was outgained by 145 yards but it won the yardage battle last week against New Orleans as this defense has come to play thus far in the early part of the season. The players know they are close and are in a good spot in a nationally televised game. The Jets shocked many on opening Monday night as they defeated the Lions thanks to a 31-point third quarter but despite winning by 31 points, they only outgained Detroit by 10 yards. They did a better job on the stat sheet last week against Miami as Sam Darnold threw for 334 yards but he threw two picks and was not nearly as efficient as in his first game. This is a very difficult spot for a rookie quarterback coming off a Sunday game and playing on the first short week of his career. Additionally, this is the third game in 11 days for New York and Darnold will have to deal with a hyper-aggressive defensive coordinator in Gregg Williams, who loves to call blitzes, especially against young quarterbacks. In the first two games, the Browns blitzed 40 times out of 84 dropbacks, a league-high 47.6 percentage, against two Hall of Fame quarterbacks and that number figures to climb against Darnold. 10* (302) Cleveland Browns |
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09-20-18 | Phillies +137 v. Braves | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. This is the final home series of the season for the Braves and the biggest series of the season for both teams. Philadelphia and Atlanta meet seven times over the final week and a half of the season including this four-game set that could go a long way in helping decide the National League East. The Braves have a 5.5-game lead over the Phillies so we could see a huge swing over the weekend have not much movement at all but this game is huge for Philadelphia in trying to close the gap. The Phillies took the final two games against the Mets to close out a disappointing homestand at 4-5 and at least gain a little momentum heading into this series. Atlanta has faltered this season in this price range at home as it is 13-22 -17.5 units as a home favorite between -125 and -175 while going 26-16 +11 units in all other games. Additionally, the Braves are 3-12 in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning record. Vince Velazquez looks to keep the solid pitching going and while he has electric stuff, he has had a rough stretch since early August which is adding to the underdog price he is getting. The Braves counter with Kevin Gausman who has been a great addition to the rotation since coming over from Baltimore. Atlanta has yet to lose any of his four home starts, which is also affecting the line, but it is hard to look past his only start this season against the Phillies in mid-July when he was still with the Orioles as he allowed five runs on 12 hits in just five innings. 10* (905) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple -7 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. We played on Temple two weeks ago against Buffalo and it lost on a late touchdown by the Bulls, which are showing they are MAC contenders. The Owls bounced back last week with a blowout win over Maryland and the 21-point victory was backed up by a 234-yard differential over the Terrapins and that momentum comes at the right time heading into their conference opener. Temple backup quarterback Anthony Russo got the start last week over Frank Nutile who sat with an undisclosed injury and he was very solid so whoever gets the start this week will be in good shape as the Tulsa defense is allowing opponents a .682 completion percentage. Temple is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games against teams allowing a .580 or higher completion percentage while going 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. Tulsa opened the season with a less than impressive win over Central Arkansas and backed that up with a pair of losses against Texas and Arkansas St. While the two losses ended up being somewhat close, the Golden Hurricane fell behind 21-0 and 27-7 and made their comebacks late when the opposition was playing prevent. They have been on the same level as Temple on offense but the defense has been much worse and they have just four sacks, which is No. 93 in the nation, and have yet to intercept a pass. On top of it, this is a tough trip for Tulsa as it has to travel east on a short week whereas Temple got to make a short trip homer from Maryland. 10* (304) Temple Owls |
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09-19-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Cubs offense erupted for nine runs last night ss they had the luxury of facing Matt Andriese who was making his first start since July 4 when he was with Tampa Bay. It was a rare outburst as the Chicago offense has been struggling, averaging just 2.8 rpg going into last night and it will be challenged tonight facing a left-handed starter. Arizona has now lost four straight games and 14 of its last 18 games as it has played itself into a situation where it cannot lose anymore. The Diamondbacks trail the Dodgers by six games in the American League West and are also six back in the Wild Card race but the good news is that the next six games are against Colorado and Los Angeles at home so ground can be made up quickly. Robbie Ray has the task of keeping the Cubs at bay and while he has been inconsistent this season, he has been pitching his best of late, posting a 2.74 ERA over his last eight starts including a 1.99 ERA in four home outings. Cole Hamels has been an excellent addition to the rotation but he has had the luxury of facing just one team that is vying for a playoff spot. Here, we play on home teams with a moneyline of -100 to -150 and with a winning percentage between .501 and .540 after having lost eight or more of their last 10 games, playing a winning team. This situation is 51-18 (73.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-18-18 | Cardinals v. Braves -135 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Game of the Month. As soon as Mike Foltynewicz walked the bases loaded in the first inning last night, we knew we were in trouble and he put up his shortest and arguably the worst outing of the season. Despite the defeat and the third straight loss at home, the Braves inched closer to clinching the National League East as their magic number was reduced to seven when the Phillies lost to the Mets. Atlanta cannot solely rely other teams however as it has to get out of this funk with less than two weeks left in the regular season. Despite the loss last night, the Braves are 28-14 in their last 42 games against National League teams with an on base percentage .315 or worse. St. Louis moved into sole possession of the second Wild Card spot in the National League with Colorado losing, so each remaining game is big for the Cardinals as well. While the offense exploded last night, pitching remains a concern as they have allowed more than three runs in 13 of their last 16 games, giving up an average of 5.9 rpg. There have been several career resurgences this season from pitchers and Anibal Sanchez is part of that group. He has a 3.01 ERA through 19 starts and this is significant considering he posted a 5.67 ERA over the previous three season in Detroit over 88 starts. The Braves are 7-1 in his last eight starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Austin Gomber had a very good run going but got lit up for seven runs against the Dodgers last time out and he could be in trouble again here as Atlanta is hitting .271 against left-handed pitching this season which is third best in baseball. 10* (906) Atlanta Braves |
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09-17-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -130 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. Arizona lost two of three in Houston after losing three of four in Colorado so it was not the roadtrip it envisioned and the Diamondbacks have not won a series since taking two games from the angels back on August 21 and 22. Arizona remains 4.5 games out of first place in the National League West and four games out of the second Wild Card spot. They have won 12 of 17 games after allowing five or more runs and the Diamondbacks are 10-4 in their last 14 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. The Cubs took their series with Cincinnati but did lose Sunday to remain 2.5 games ahead of the Brewers in the National League Central. The offense is struggling and Chicago is just 7-13 this season after batting .200 or worse in a three-game span. Patrick Corbin is having a very solid season with a 3.05 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 30 starts, half of which have come at home and 10 of those resulted in quality outings. He has faced the Cubs at home twice and he allowed one run over 12.2 innings. He is third in the league in strikeouts and that is not ideal for a Chicago team that is showing no life on offense. The Cubs are 2-5 in their last seven games against left-handed starters. Kyle Henricks has been on a decent run but he has not looked great on the road with a 3.89 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 14 starts. Here, we play on home favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings, with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.00 the last five games. This situation is 43-6 (87.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -4.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. Chicago blew a big chance last week as it blew a 20-0 lead against Green Bay but it did show that the Bears have turned a corner after four straight miserable seasons where they have gone 19-45. The Bears are back in Chicago for their home opener as head coach Matt Nagy looks for his first victory. It has not been a good start for first year head coaches as they have gone a combined 2-11 heading into tonight but Chicago has a good matchup edge. The Seattle defense is in rough shape for tonight. Linebacker Bobby Wagner became the third Pro Bowl veteran ruled out tonight as he will miss with a groin injury and this is a big deal. Second-year free-agent Austin Calitro will start for Wagner and since he cannot play weakside linebacker Mychal Kendricks to play weakside linebacker against the Bears after just two practices with the team. Both starting cornerbacks are hurt and rookie right cornerback Tre Flowers is doubtful to play while they cut their starting defensive tackle Tom Johnson for concern with depth behind banged-up strong safety Bradley McDougald. The offense struggled last week against Denver as it managed only 306 total yards. The goal heading into this season was to run the ball better and Seattle managed only 64 yards on 16 carries and it will not get any easier on Monday night. The offensive line allowed six sacks and although a couple of those were on quarterback Russell Wilson for not throwing the ball away, it was clear right tackle Germain Ifedi was outclassed by linebacker Von Miller. Now comes Khalil Mack. The Bears offense was vertical in the first half but they pulled back in the second half for no apparent reason. Of 21 passing attempts after halftime, nine did not even cross the line of scrimmage while five more were within 5 yards of the line. The Bears need to open it back up. 10* (290) Chicago Bears |
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09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our Sunday NFL Enforcer. The Jaguars went to New York and took care of the Giants behind their powerful defense as they allowed just 324 total yards and 68 of those came on one play, a touchdown run by Saquon Barkley. The challenge will be tougher this week however but Jacksonville should be up for that challenge as it has had this game circled for eight months. The Jaguars have a chance to erase the bad feelings that came from a tough loss in the AFC Championship and they are well aware of the magnitude of this game. Jacksonville was second in the NFL last season in takeaways with 33 but it only had one in the last meeting and that is the key to winning or losing against New England. When the Patriots have a positive turnover differential in the Belichick era, they are 143-15 and when they lose the turnover battle, they are 37-42. The Jaguars style offensively and defensively gives them a chance to win this statistic no matter the opponent. More good news is that Jacksonville pass rusher Dante Fowler, who sacked Brady on two occasions in the AFC Championship, will make his season debut after sitting out the opener due to suspension for violation of the NFL's personal conduct policy. The Patriots were firing on all cylinders last week against Houston as the offense put up 389 yards of offense but it will be tougher heading out on the road in what is expected to be a tough environment. The defense played well also and while the Jacksonville offense is not going to put a scare into anybody, it is efficient and limits its mistakes. Quarterback Blake Bortles can extend plays and hurt defenses with his legs, as seen on his 41-yard run against New York last weekend. Jacksonville has covered seven straight games as an underdog going up against an opponent off a win. 10* (284) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-16-18 | Twins v. Royals -105 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. While this could typically qualify for a contrarian play based on the Royals having won the first four gamers of this series, we will back Kansas City to get the sweep as the price is too good in this matchup. The Royals have won five of their last six games and 14 of their last 20, They will be trying to close out their first four-game sweep since taking four straight from the Twins in August of 2016. Minnesota are now 4-10 in September and with the exception of two 10-run outbursts, it has averaged 2.7 rpg in the other 12 games. The Twins are 8-21 in their last 29 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Jakob Junis has been dealing as he has a 1.88 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in his last three starts and he has allowed two runs or less in seven straight outings. Kyle Gibson has had a solid season for Minnesota but he has been inconsistent of late and he has taken the loss in four straight games. He is getting just 3.1 rpg of support on the road and the Twins are 4-11 in his last 15 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Kansas City falls into a solid situation as we play on American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season but with a recent WHIP of 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 39-12 (76.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (922) Kansas City Royals |
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09-16-18 | Colts +6 v. Redskins | Top | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Game of the Week. One of the takeaways from Week One into Week Two is overreaction from the first game of the season. That is represented in several lines this week with this being one of those. The Colts are coming off a loss in the first game back for Andrew Luck as they were defeated by the Bengals by 11 points but it was misleading. Indianapolis was driving late in the fourth quarter down four points but tight end Jack Doyle fumbled the ball and Cincinnati returned it for a touchdown. The Colts outgained the Bengals by 50 yards but because of the loss and the big Washington win, the early line from last week of -3 went up to -5 at the true open and has gone up even more since then. While Luck may not be 100 percent in his comeback, he played well last week and this has been a great spot throughout his career as the Colts are 22-6 ATS when coming off a loss with Luck at quarterback. Washington was very impressive against Arizona in its opener as it outgained the Cardinals by 216 yards and held them to just six points which was a garbage touchdown with five minutes left with the score at 24-0. Again, an overreaction to one game and while the Redskins did dominate, doing it again seems unlikely even though they do head home. Most impressive was the fact they ran for 182 yards on 42 carries (4.3 ypg) which caused them to hold the ball for over 17 more minutes than the Cardinals. That being said, playing out west in the opener was a disadvantage because of travel to and from. The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (261) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-15-18 | Washington v. Utah +5.5 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Game of the Week. Washington lost its opener against Auburn which took place in Atlanta and it was a poor performance from the offense. Granted, the Tigers possess a strong defense but the stop unit the Huskies face this week is no slouch either as the Utes are ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense. The Huskies bounced back with a 42-point win over North Dakota last week but it was not overly impressive as they made plays when they should have, but it was far from the crisp domination expected from a top-10 team facing an FCS opponent. Washington has struggled running the ball and it will be difficult getting it going this week against a Utah defense that allowed 117 yards rushing to Northern Illinois last week, but only 2.7 ypc. The Utah offense has been vanilla in their two wins and while it is not exotic, there will be a few new wrinkles that the Huskies have not seen. The offensive line needs to be better after allowing six sacks last week but this is an experienced unit that brought back four starters, three of which are seniors with the other two being juniors. One aspect of the offense that goes unnoticed is the offensive coordinator. Troy Taylor is in his second year which is big as when he arrived at Utah he was the ninth offensive coordinator in ten years so no turnover is important. Washington is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing nine points or less last game while Utah is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 275 or fewer total yards in two consecutive games. Additionally, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 54-22 ATS (71.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (206) Utah Utes |
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09-15-18 | White Sox -120 v. Orioles | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Chicago has won two straight games after a seven-game losing streak which killed momentum from a nice 14-6 run for the young White Sox as they vow to continue to play strong to end the season. Despite being 12 games under .500 on the road, the White Sox are 13-5 in their last 18 road games. It has been a brutal season for the Orioles which are 2-11 over their last 13 games and are almost an unfathomable 63 games under .500. While it was a rebuilding year, no one expected this as they have been outscored by 252 runs overall. Yet they come in as a slight underdog despite no offense and a major pitching disadvantage. Yefry Ramirez will be making his tenth start of the season as he comes back out of the bullpen for a spot start. He has pitched well in relief but in his nine starts, he has a 7.34 ERA which consists of no quality outings. Reynaldo Lopez counters for Chicago and he is on a solid run as he has tossed three straight quality outings, posting a 0.90 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in those games. Here, we play on American League teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 with an on-base percentage of .320 or worse and a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.55 or worse. This situation is 89-54 ATS (62.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (969) Chicago White Sox |
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09-15-18 | Calgary -1 v. Hamilton | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALGARY STAMPEDERS for our CFL Saturday Enforcer. We have been high on Hamilton all season and we won with the Tiger-Cats but we are going against them here in what is tough spot. Hamilton enters the game riding a three-game winning streak and looks to extend it as they eye the first-place position in the East Division. After a 7-0 start, Calgary has gone just 2-2 over its last four games, both losses coming on the road against West Division opponents. The Stampeders lost a tight one last week in Edmonton and they have not lost back-to-back meaningful games since early 2012. There is an asterisk with this as they lost their last three regular season games last year but those were not meaningful as they had everything wrapped up. Not counting those, Calgary is 21-0 in its last 21 regular season games following a loss in a game that means something which is pretty impressive to say the least. The Stampeders have dominated in this series as they have won their last 13 games against the Tiger-Cats dating back to Sept. 25, 2011. We have two solid situations in play. First, we play on road teams coming off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 39-15 (72.2 percent) since 1996. Second, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive wins against the spread, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 48-22 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (661) Calgary Stampeders |
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09-15-18 | Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame -13.5 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -108 | 48 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH for our CFB Star Attraction. Notre Dame is coming off a closer than expected win over Ball St. as it won by just eight points as a 34-point favorite. The Cardinals went 2-10 last season so the line was based on that but they were young and injuries took their toll and they are expected to be one of the most improved teams in the nation. But give credit to the Notre Dame defense as after giving up an 85-yard scoring drive on the Cardinals' first offensive possession, the Fighting Irish allowed only 36 total yards on the next 19 plays. It was the second close win against the Irish, the first coming against Michigan two weeks ago. This is a big game to remain undefeated as they travel to Wake Forest next week, which is a sneaky tough spot and then they have tough games at home against Stanford and at Virginia Tech. Vanderbilt is also off to a 2-0 start. The Commodores defeated Middle Tennessee St. by 28 points but outgained the Blue Raiders by just 53 yards and last week they took care of an overmatched Nevada team. Look across the internet and people are putting Notre Dame on upset alert but Vanderbilt is not a team that should be able to keep up here. The Commodores are picked to finish dead last in the SEC East by a lot of outlets as they have just 12 starters back. The effort for Notre Dame last week was not good and head coach Brian Kelly shouldered the blame for that and vowed to have his team better prepared this week. Vanderbilt has had its struggles on the road under head coach Derek Mason as it is 5-16 in 21 games. 9* (138) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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09-15-18 | Oklahoma -17.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 37-27 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA SOONERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Oklahoma is off to a 2-0 start with easy victories over Florida Atlantic and UCLA and this will be the first road game of the young season for the Sooners. There will be plenty of motivation for Oklahoma after losing at home to Iowa St. last season, snapping an 18-game winning streak in this series while also snapping the Sooners 14-game winning streak. With a home game against Army on deck, these is no lookahead factor so we will see a fully focused team that can run the table in getting into the playoffs with the chances of a Pac 12 team making it now very unlikely. Oklahoma has lost just nine games at home since 2005 and in the eight follow up meetings, the Sooners have gone a perfect 8-0 straight up and ATS. That is important here after Iowa St. went into Norman last season and defeated the then-No. 3 Sooners 38-31. That is not good news for Iowa St. which lost its season opener last week against rival Iowa by 10 points as the Cyclones managed just three points and 188 total yards. Making matters worse, they lost their starting quarterback Kyle Kempt with a knee injury and he is out this week. Last season in nine games, he completed 66.3 percent of his passes while throwing 15 touchdowns and just three picks. They will have to try and run the ball but they struggled last week with just 19 yards on 25 carries (0.8 ypc) and going back, the Cyclones are 14-34-3 ATS in their last 51 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. This being a game at starts at 11 AM local time, that does help the home team. 10* (127) Oklahoma Sooners |
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09-14-18 | Rockies v. Giants +126 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 126 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Colorado is coming off a very important series win over Arizona as it took three of four to maintain its lead in the National League West at two games over the Dodgers. Despite being 16 games over .500, the Rockies are just +5 in run differential as they have been fortunate to win a lot of one-run games along the way. They have been a solid road team all season and going back to mid-August, this is their seventh straight game as road favorites, having gone just 3-3 in those previous six. San Francisco has been in a major funk as it has lost 11 straight games. The pitching has been okay during this stretch but the offense has been downright offensive as the Giants have scored three runs or less in 10 of those games including eight in a row. The last time they scored more than three runs came against the Rockies and Tyler Anderson who has struggling in a major way. He was cruising along with a 3.57 ERA through his first 21 starts but over his last eight starts, he has posted a 9.42 ERA with only one quality start over that stretch. Colorado has lost eight of his last nine starts and in three starts at AT&T Park, he has a 7.04 ERA. Chris Stratton has been up and down but has put together a solid stretch where he has a 2.84 ERA over his last four starts. The Giants are 8-0 in his last eight home starts against winning teams. Here, we play on National League home underdogs that are hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.50 or worse over his last 10 starts. This situation is 33-18 (64.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (912) San Francisco Giants |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals +1.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Public reaction after one week has the Ravens as one of the top teams in the NFL following their convincing 47-3 win on opening Sunday. Granted, this is a good team but we are not ready to put them at the top of the football hierarchy just yet. Baltimore has not made the playoffs since 2014 and there is no significant difference in its roster with the exception of upgrades at wide receiver. The win last week came against one of the worst rosters in football so getting carried away with it is a bit of an overreaction. Joe Flacco had a great game and is getting all of the accolades but the other side cannot be overlooked. The Bengals took care of the Colts last week thanks to a late turnover that stalled a possible winning drive and put the game out of reach. Andy Daulton is constantly being criticized but last week, he completed 21 of 28 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Indianapolis. Dalton has plenty of dangerous targets, from perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Green to tight end Tyler Eifert to running back Joe Mixon. The running game could be a big difference as the Ravens do not have one. Ravens starting running back Alex Collins carried just seven times for 13 yards and lost a fumble while Mixon put together a solid opening game. With the exception of two Week 17 meetings, five of the last seven meetings has seen this line falls between 2.5 and 3.5 which is typical for a divisional game such as this so the value is on the home side anything under a field goal. Additionally, road teams that are coming off a win in their season opener where they scored 40 or more points are 10-21-2 in the last 33 instances. 10* (102) Cincinnati Bengals |
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09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +7 | Top | 41-34 | Push | 0 | 55 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Boston College and Wake Forest have both opened with a pair of wins and even though the Eagles have blown out their two opponents, the quality of competition has been awful and both of those games were at home. They are coming off a 7-6 campaign where they closed 5-1 during the regular season so they do have some solid momentum going. The problem here is the line as they have no business laying this number considering they have not been a conference road favorite this big since 2014 which ironically came here in a non-cover against the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest survived Tulane in overtime in its season opener but that was not an easy road trip. The Demon Deacons returned home last week and rolled over an overmatched Towson team in a 31-point victory. Dave Clawson has done a great job in turning this program around as Wake Forest has put together two straight winning seasons after posting seven consecutive losing campaigns. With 14 starters back, including eight from an offense that averaged 466 ypg and 35.3 ppg, another bowl game is on the horizon. Wake Forest is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog and it falls into a spectacular situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg after gaining 475 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 28-5 ATS (84.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (104) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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09-13-18 | Cubs -124 v. Nationals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. This is a makeup game from the game that was rained out on Sunday and it is a big one for the Cubs. They are coming off a series loss against the Brewers and saw their lead shrink to one game in the National League Central so this one game trip means a lot at this stage of the season. The Cubs are 21-7 in their last 28 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Washington is coming off a three-game sweep of the Phillies in Philadelphia to make it five straight wins but it is likely too little, too late for the Nationals. They are back home where there has been no home field advantage this summer as they are just one game over .500. Mike Montgomery has been solid with a 3.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 15 starts and those numbers improve on the road. He benefits for this being his first start against the Nationals and one of his strengths is he keeps the ball on the ground and has allowed only seven home runs this season. Washington is just 12-21 against pitchers who gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start this season. Joe Ross counters for the Nationals and he looks to get in his first full start in 14 months. He rejoined the rotation last week, but his start, which was his first since undergoing Tommy John surgery in July of 2017, was rained out after just 1.2 innings. Coming off an injury like that, we are not sure what to expect and the Cubs are 12-5 in their last 17 games against right-handed starters. 10* (965) Chicago Cubs |
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09-12-18 | Storm v. Mystics -3.5 | Top | 98-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON MYSTICS for our WNBA Wednesday Enforcer. The Mystics nearly pulled off the Game Two upset as they held a three-point lead going into the fourth quarter but Seattle opened the final period on a 12-4 run and Washington was never able to get its lead back. Now its back is against the proverbial wall as it is one loss away from being eliminated in its quest for a first ever WNBA Championship. One thing we noted going into Game Two on Sunday was the fact that the Mystics had nothing from downtown, going just 3-21 (14.3 percent) from long range so we definitely expected a better effort. Well, that did not happen as Washington was 0-16 from behind the arc but it was still able to cover. Now a combined 3-37 (8.1 percent) on threes, things can only get better we assume and if they do, Washington should be in good shape. The Mystics have won five of six playoff elimination games dating back to last season, a history that gives Washington confidence heading into tonight. The Mystics are 14-6 at home and while they have not played any postseason games at their normal home of Capital One Arena, they will be playing at EagleBank Arena, which seats 10,000 and it should provide for an intimate atmosphere as Washington looks to extend the series. Here, we play on favorites that are revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 75 or more points, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (618) Washington Mystics |
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09-12-18 | Padres v. Mariners -144 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -144 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Like Tampa Bay, Seattle is 8.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League and while getting there seems unlikely, the Mariners have to keep fighting because you just never know. They are coming off a tough loss last night as they managed only one run and gave up the winning run in the top of the ninth inning. It has been a poor homestand as they are just 3-4 although three of those games were against the Yankees. Seattle needs to close out strong as it heads out on a 10-game divisional roadtrip after today. San Diego is 4-3 on this current roadtrip and the win last night was a rare one against a left-handed starter as the Padres are 16-41 in their last 57 road games against left-handed starters while going 13-32 against left-handed starters this season. The bad news is they face another one and one that is red hot as Wade LeBlanc, who is having a great season overall, has posted a 0.47 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts after a couple of rough starts in August. Those two bad outings came against the Astros and Dodgers however and he gets a great matchup tonight. Joey Lucchesi counters for San Diego and he is having a solid rookie season with a 3.59 ERA and 1.265 WHIP and while his numbers are better on the road, he gets no run support and the Padres are 1-4 in his last five road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (930) Seattle Mariners |
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09-11-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -132 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee has won four straight games and coupled with the Cubs three-game skid, the Brewers have moved just one game back in the National League Central. They are two games back in the loss column which is the problem but if anything, they do have a firm hold on the first spot in the National League Wild Card. Milwaukee is still just 38-35 on the road and the Brewers are 2-6 in their last eight games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. The Cubs lost for just the 25th time at home which are the fewest losses of any team in the National League. Chicago has had its issues with lefties of late but have been crushing righties and the Cubs are 21-6 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starters. They face Jhoulys Chacin who is putting together a career season as he has tied his career win total and currently has his best WHIP ever. Since August, he has been laboring however and he has been fortunate he has not allowed more runs as he has a 1.41 WHIP over his last seven starts. After a pair pf gems against the Cubs earlier in the season, they got to him for three runs on seven hits in just 4.2 innings last week. Jose Quintana has put together two straight quality starts and has allowed two runs or less in four straight games following a rough stretch before that. With the exception of one bad outing last month, he has dominated the Brewers since coming to Chicago, posting a 1.05 in the other six starts. The Cubs are 16-5 in his last 21 home starts and going back, he excels later in the season as his teams are 19-4 in his last 23 home games in the second half of the season. 10* (958) Chicago Cubs |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. Most of the talk about Oakland has been negative, centering on how new head coach Jon Gruden has not been on the sidelines for ten years and the poor handling of the linebacker Khalil Mack situation. Gruden made a lot of moves this offseason by bringing in so many veteran players as he turned over a roster that has done very little, in a very long time. There is concern over his old style and how he is going to adjust after not coaching for 10 years but that is offset by the fact he showed nothing during the preseason so the Rams have little to go off of. There is concern that the Raiders are the oldest team in the NFL but that is overblown completely especially when the average age is 27.4 years. As for the Rams, they upgraded their roster with a lot of high-profile moves but early season cohesiveness could be an issue. The Rams rested their offensive starters all preseason, only giving suspended guard Jamon Brown any work. The starting defense only played seven snaps in the third game against the Texans, but that was barely two series of action. As for that defense, while all of the talk is about the strength of the defensive line, there are issues at linebacker and that could be a big problem against the Raiders power running game. This is a great early season situation for the Raiders as going back to 1980, Monday Night home underdogs is season opener are 15-5 ATS. 10* (482) Oakland Raiders |
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09-09-18 | Mystics +5.5 v. Storm | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON MYSTICS for our WNBA Sunday Enforcer. Seattle came through in a big way for us on Friday but are going the opposite way today with Washington having its back against the wall. Friday was ugly for the Mystics as they trailed by as many as 26 points as they had nothing from downtown, going just 3-21 (14.3 percent) from long range so we definitely expect a better effort on Sunday. Elena Delle Donne, playing with a large brace on her left knee after suffering a bone bruise in the last semifinal series, had 10 points and seven rebounds before sitting out the fourth quarter. Guard Kristi Toliver was limited to five points on 2-of-11 shooting, including 1-8 from three-point range. Seattle improved to 17-4 at home with the victory including eight straight wins and the early consensus is all over the Storm in Game Two. Despite 75 percent of the offshore bets placed on Seattle, this line has not moved which is an indication of the linesmakers knowing where sharp money would fall should it move. The Mystics are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss while the Storm are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win. Additionally, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are shooting 44 percent or better on the season, after a game where they made 15 percent of their three-point shots or worse. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (615) Washington Mystics |
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09-09-18 | Cardinals -114 v. Tigers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. We lost a tough one with the Cardinals last night as they rallied from a 3-0 deficit to tie the game in the ninth inning only to end up losing in the bottom half of the frame on a wild pitch. St. Louis has now dropped five of its last seven games to fall two and a half games behind Milwaukee for the first Wild Card spot in the National League and is fortunate to still be a game up on the Dodgers. Despite losses in the first two games of this series, the Cardinals possess the second best road record in the National League, winning 12 of their last 16. Detroit has won four straight games as the pitching has been spot on but comes to an end eventually and that thought is today. Michael Fulmer has been a tough luck pitcher all season as Detroit has given him only 2.7 rpg through 22 starts but he has not helped matters with his 4.57 ERA. Going back, the Tigers are 6-23 in his last 29 starts. John Gant has pitched very well since entering the rotation and after a poor outing against the Pirates to open August, he has posted a 1.38 ERA over his last six starts. The Cardinals fall into a great situation where we play against American League teams with an OBP of .310 or worse and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs last outing going up a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.25 or better. This situation is 44-15 (74.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (979) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-09-18 | Texans +7 v. Patriots | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Game of the Week. Houston and New England met last September and that was the Deshawn Watson breakout game. While he did throw two picks, he went 22-33 for 301 yards and two touchdowns and the Texans easily covered. He is healthy and Houston is in for a big season. The Patriots not favored by nearly as much this time around but this number is too high for a depleted New England team to be laying. Tom Brady is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league but we could see some struggles early in the season as he has no one to throw to. Additionally, he could struggle here staying upright as the Patriots lost left tackle Nate Solder to the Giants in free agency, and then proceeded to lose first-round pick Isaiah Wynn to a torn Achilles back in August. While New England has been a perennial strong starters, it is just 2-2 over the last four years, and the win gap for those two victories has only gotten smaller with an average of 4.5 ppg and it has failed to cover four of its last five season openers. The Texans defense was one of the worst last season but they should get back to form this year as defensive end J.J. Watt and linebacker Whitney Mercilus return and they added safely Tyrann Mathieu to help in the secondary. While Watson is the key to the offense, this is a big spot for Lamar Miller to put up a big game to keep the Patriots defense off balance. 10* (465) Houston Texans |
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09-08-18 | Yankees v. Mariners +106 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Yankees got a gem last night from Masahiro Tanaka who tossed eight shutout innings in a 4-0 victory. They improved to 40-29 on the road but overall, it has been a pretty average stretch as New York is just 5-6 over its last 11 games as is 8.5 games behind Boston in the American League East. A Wild Card spot is likely but the one team that can make things interesting in Seattle which is 6.5 games back following the loss last night. The Mariners fell to 2-2 on this current homestand but are still 40-30 at home and have won four straight games following a loss while the Yankees are 4-13 in their last 17 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Felix Hernandez is far from the ace he used to be but he is in a good spot here at home where he has pitched much better than on the road. He has always pitched well against the Yankees and one of his better road starts this season came in New York. Lance Lynn was exceptional in his first two starts with the Yankees but he has been awful since then. In his last four outings, he has a 9.50 ERA and all four of those starts came against teams not even sniffing the postseason. He has struggled in opposing ball parks all season as he has a 6.42 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 13 road starts and while most of those came with the Twins, he cannot be trusted in the role of a road favorite even though it is a short number. 10* (928) Seattle Mariners |
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09-08-18 | Florida International v. Old Dominion +1 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the OLD DOMINION MONARCHS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. One angle we like to look at early in the season is playing on teams that are expected to be improved from last season but came out of the gates slow. If they truly are supposed to be better, they will bounce back sooner rather than later and we are expecting that with Old Dominion this Saturday. The Monarchs got crushed against Liberty which was playing its first game in the FBS as they lost by 42 points and were outgained by 290 yards. Those are some ugly numbers but in this case, it brings the spread down this week for a team that is already in desperate need of a win before the season spirals out of control, especially with this being an early conference game. Florida International played a better game last week as it lost to Indiana by just 10 points but the game was at home and the Panthers were still outgained by 138 yards. We should see some regression from them this season as they went 8-5 but half of their wins came by just one possession and that usually spells a step back the next year. Butch Davis is a solid coach but this is just his second year here so most of his experienced players are those recruited by Ron Turner. Here, we play on teams that were outgained by 75 or more ypg last season, returning 8 or more offensive starters and QB going up against an opponent returning five or less defensive starters. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, home underdogs in Game Two that lost straight up as road favorites are 7-2 ATS since 1988. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 2-6 ATS their last eight September games. 10* (320) Old Dominion Monarchs |
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09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina +10 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -108 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. Georgia had its chance last season as it nearly won the National Championship but lost to Alabama in overtime in what was a classic final. The Bulldogs had no issues with Austin Peay in their opener last week as they rolled to a 45-0 win but the competition takes a big step up this week. It is hard to gauge how the offense will shape up with the loss of running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel who combined for an incredible 2,608 yards rushing last season and as good as Jacob Fromm is, losing that tandem is tough to adjust to. Last season, Georgia possessed one of the best defenses in the country as it returned 10 starters but things will not be quite as stout this season as they lost six starters including All-American linebacker Roquan Smith whose 137 tackles are just short of their top three returning tacklers. South Carolina went through a mediocre three-year stretch before putting together a solid 9-4 season last year and big things are expected in 2018. The Gamecocks also rolled in their season opener against Coastal Carolina so that does not give a great indication of what to expect either. One thing we can take from that is the performance of quarterback Jake Bentley who looked extremely sharp and he has one of his top targets back in Deebo Samuel who was lost after three games last season. South Carolina falls into a simple yet effective situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season. This situation is 84-44 ATS (65.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (348) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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09-08-18 | Hamilton -5.5 v. Toronto | Top | 36-25 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TIGER-CATS for our CFL Saturday Enforcer. Typically, this would be a good spot to go contrarian and back the home underdog but right now, there is a huge variance between these two teams. It is hard to believe that Toronto is the reigning Grey Cup champions as it is 3-7 and it just goes to show how important the quarterback is in this league. Ricky Ray has been the face of this franchise since 2012 but he was injured in the season opener and is done for the year. Ray led the Argonauts to Grey Cup victories in 2012 and 2017, and he also claimed the CFL championship in 2003 and 2005 while with the Edmonton Eskimos. In ten games, Toronto has been outgained nine times including last week at Hamilton by 322 yards. The Tiger-Cats are just 5-5 but remain a sleeper team for the postseason as they have played better than their record indicates. They have been outgained only twice all season as they own the top offense and the second ranked defense and their 126.9 ypg differential is the best in the CFL. Entering Week 13 of the regular season, Hamilton holds a four-point advantage over the Argonauts and the idle Alouettes for second place in the East Division and are looking to win their third consecutive game. Speaking of quarterback play, Jeremiah Masoli has been exceptional as he has thrown for at least 300 yards in eight of their 10 games, including a 385-yard output against the Argonauts on Monday. 10* (653) Hamilton Tiger-Cats |
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09-07-18 | Mystics v. Storm -4.5 | Top | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE STORM for our WNBA Friday Enforcer. The points look tempting here but this is not a good spot for Washington in the opener of the WNBA Finals. The Mystics overcame a 2-1 deficit against Atlanta in the semifinal round to win the final two games and it was somewhat surprising considering what they were handed. Elena Delle Donne went down with a knee in jury in Game Two and while she came back after missing Game Three, she clearly was not 100 percent. In the first two games of the series, she averaged 29.5 ppg and 13.5 rpg on 48.5 percent shooting but the last two games, she put up just 14.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg, while shooting just 39.2 percent. This is not good against the athletic and active frontcourt of Breanna Stewart and Natasha Howard. Seattle had to survive a Game Five as well as it defeated the Mercury after dropping the two games in Phoenix. From a logistics standpoint, the Storm remain home for the opener while Washington has a tough travel schedule, going from Atlanta on Tuesday to back home and now having to travel out west. The home team won all three meetings this season and Seattle has not forgotten the last matchup in Washington where the Mystics won by 23 points, the worst loss of the season for the Storm. Here, we play on favorites that are revenging a loss by 10 points or more going up against that opponent after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 48-21 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (614) Seattle Storm |
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09-07-18 | Phillies -145 v. Mets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Phillies are playing themselves right out of the playoffs as they dropped two of three in Miami and are now 1-4 to start the month. They were in great position in the division but after losing 18 of their 28 games, they are 3.5 games behind the Braves in the National League East. This continues a stretch of 12 of 15 games against the Mets and Marlins so Philadelphia has to take advantage and especially tonight with their ace on the hill. The Mets closed their roadtrip with a 4-1 record but they have been a much worse team at home as they are 11 games under .500 and possess the second worst home record in the National League. Aaron Nola has been dominant at home with the Phillies going 12-2 in his 14 starts but his numbers are just as good on the road and they are 11-1 in his last 12 starts against teams with a losing record. Steven Matz has put together a pair of quality outings but this is not a good spot as the Mets are 2-9 in his last 11 home starts against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia falls into a great situation where we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are hitting .255 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 81-33 (71.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (957) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-06-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -150 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -150 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Atlanta was in great position to salvage the series finale against Boston yesterday as it held a 7-1 lead going into the eighth inning and the Red Sox did it again by scoring eight runs over the final two innings to pull off the 9-8 win. That type of loss is tough to overcome and the Braves head west for a seven-game roadtrip that starts off in a tough spot tonight. Arizona had a rare Wednesday off day after a 6-0 shutout of the Padres on Tuesday but the Diamondbacks fell two games behind Colorado in the National League West following the Rockies fifth straight win last night. This is the start of 20 straight games against teams ahead of them in the playoffs so the schedule is not in their favor and tonight is the type of game they have to take advantage of. Zack Greinke gets the ball as he looks to continue his home domination where he has a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 14 starts, allowing two runs or less in 13 of those. He has been one of the most dominant pitchers in a spot like this over the last few years as his teams are 100-30 as favorites of -150 or more. Anibal Sanchez looks to stop the bleeding for the Braves as he looks to continue his improbable comeback. He has a 2.98 ERA through 19 starts but Atlanta is 2-7 over his last nine outings as he has received three runs or less in eight of those and that should continue tonight. Arizona falls into a spectacular situation where we play on favorites with a money line of -150 or more with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games. This situation is 38-5 (88.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (906) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +1 | Top | 12-18 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for our NFL Thursday Season Opening Enforcer. Everyone has likely heard of the Super Bowl hangover but it does not pertain to the first week of the next season. Since the NFL began its current format for the Kickoff Opener with the winners of the previous Super Bowl playing host to the first game of the season, defending champions are 11-2 in those games (not counting Baltimore in 2013 since its game was moved to the road because of an Orioles scheduling conflict). The defending home team went 8-4-1 ATS. Going back further prior to the Thursday Kickoff Opener, defending Super Bowl Champions have gone 15-2 straight up and 11-5-1 ATS the last 17. One of those two losses was last season when Kansas City surprised the Patriots but it was definitely a fluke as the Chiefs scored three fourth quarter touchdowns thanks to the emergence of Kareem Hunt, who at that time was a relevant unknown. The Eagles look to keep their momentum going from their Super Bowl win over New England and they will go with Nick Foles at quarterback to give Carson Wentz another 10 days to be fully cleared. We know what Foles can do and we take advantage of this based on the line move that has gone under the key number of three. Atlanta will be playing with some revenge after coming two yards short of advancing to the NFC Championship. We are not an advocate of road revenge especially in a case like this with a short number against a team celebrating its first ever championship. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons. 10* (452) Philadelphia Eagles |
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09-05-18 | Rays -127 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. While making a run at the playoffs will not happen for Tampa Bay, it has to be encouraged for the season it has had. The Rays are now 12 games over .500 following their fourth straight win and are 13-2 over their last 15 games. The offense has been hitting the ball better but it is the pitching that has led the way as Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 2.5 rpg over the 15-game stretch. With the win last night, the Rays are 6-0 in their last six games against teams with a losing record. Toronto is going the opposite way as it has lost seven of its last nine games and it is one of just seven teams that has a scoring differential of more than -100. The Blue Jays have been better at home than on the road but with all of the trades and call-ups, there is not much chemistry going on right now. Toronto is 3-8 in its last 11 games after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. The bullpen pitching approach has been working for Tampa Bay but so has the insertion of Tyler Glasnow into the rotation. Since coming from Pittsburgh, the Rays eased him in and he is now being stretched out and it is working as he has a 3.23 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in six starts. Aaron Sanchez has allowed 11 runs in two starts since coming back from the disabled list but the offense has bailed him out, something we do not expect here. The Rays are 16-5 in their last 21 games against right-handed starters. 10* (965) Tampa Bay Rays |
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09-04-18 | Angels v. Rangers -112 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Los Angeles is 3-2 on this current roadtrip following a series opening win last night behind a solid outing from Matt Shoemaker, who made his first start since the season opener, and the bullpen as it allowed just one run. the offense continues to struggle however as the angels have scored three runs or less in four straight games and nine of their last 11. Despite the win last night, the Angels have lost 10 of their last 14 divisional games. Texas could not keep the momentum going after scoring 18 runs on Sunday as it managed to plate just one run yesterday but we expect the Rangers to bounce back tonight. The Rangers are 4-1 in their last five games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game and while home field has not been great this season, Texas is still a solid 37-20 in its last 57 home games as a favorite of -150 or less. Additionally, the Rangers are 11-5 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. Mike Minor has been a pleasant surprise to the Rangers rotation as his 4.33 ERA looks average but backs it up with a 1.11 WHIP through 24 starts. His pitching has been better at home than on the road, and by a big margin, so the price here is a good one. Andrew Heaney is coming off one of his best starts of the season but this is not an ideal situation as in three starts in Texas, he has a 10.39 ERA. Here, we play on American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 and with a WHIP of 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 37-12 (75.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (920) Texas Rangers |
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09-03-18 | Edmonton +8 v. Calgary | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON ESKIMOS for our CFL Monday Enforcer. It has been an up and down run for Edmonton as it looks to bounce back from its worst game of the season. The Eskimos only lost by a point to Hamilton but they were outgained by 195 yards in an ugly loss where they blew a 14-point lead. Edmonton comes into today with a 6-4 record and sits in second place in the West Division, four points back of the 8-1 Stampeders for first place. Prior to Hamilton, the Eskimos outgained their previous seven opponents and they are in good position to get back into this rivalry as the Eskimos have not won on Labour Day since the 2011 season and they have not had a lead on Labour Day since the 2012 game. Calgary bounced back from its first loss of the season with a 13-point win against Winnipeg last Saturday and it remains the class of the league. While the Stampeders have surrendered just nine offensive touchdowns in the nine games they have played this year, this is the first time they will face an offense led by Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly, who leads the league in both passing touchdowns, with 22, and rushing touchdowns, with eight. Edmonton falls into a spectacular contrarian situation where we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after outgaining their last opponent by 70 or more total yards going up against an opponent after being outgained by its opponent by 70 or more total yards last game. This situation is 59-28 ATS (67.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (645) Edmonton Eskimos |
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09-03-18 | Reds v. Pirates -132 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. The Reds won in extra innings yesterday despite getting outhit and they took the final two games against the Cardinals to win their first road series in six weeks. This is a great time to go against them as Anthony DeSclafani lasted only 3.2 innings so the bullpen was nearly maxed out yesterday which puts added pressure on Matt Harvey this afternoon. Despite the win, the Reds have the second worst road record in the National League and they have dropped 15 of their last 20 games on the highway. The Pirates are all but done in the National League Wild Card race following a 3-6 roadtrip but they head home where they have a winning record and are laying a short number in what is a huge pitching advantage. Trevor Williams has quietly put together a very strong season as he has a 3.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 26 starts and he has been consistent as his home and road splits are nearly identical. He has been at his best most recent as over his last eight starts, he has posted a 0.75 ERA, allowing one run or less in seven of those games. The Pirates are 6-1 in his last seven home starts against teams with a losing record. Matt Harvey had a decent three-game stretch but was shelled by the Brewers in his last game and he hits the road where he has just one quality outings in 11 starts. The competition has not mattered as the Reds are 1-6 in their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. 10* (956) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL -3.5 v. LSU | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our CFB Sunday Star Attraction. LSU is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country as it is ranked No. 129 out of 130 teams so the schedule is not in its favor to open the season. Sure, there is talent as there always is in Baton Rouge, but it may take some time for this program to click. Head coach Ed Orgeron has replaced most of his staff after finishing 9-4 in 2017 so they have implemented new schemes. After trotting star running backs to start each of the last five seasons, this may be the first instance in a long time that the Tiger running game may not actually be a strength. Making matters worse, the offensive line is a mess. Starting right guard Ed Ingram is suspended indefinitely, forcing the Tigers to turn to JUCO transfer Damien Lewis to solve the issue on the offensive interior. The turnaround in Miami is officially in place and it once again is a national title contender. The Hurricanes opened last season with a 10-0 record but lost their last three games because of a banged up offense. They bring back 14 starters, seven on each side, and the real strength is the defense which is not a good thing for the Tigers and the offense that is breaking in a quarterback, running back and wide receivers along with the aforementioned offensive line. Joe Burrow is talented at quarterback but he never had the opportunity to play in meaningful snaps at Ohio St. and he will be facing a Miami defense that is loaded at all three levels. 10* (217) Miami Hurricanes |
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09-02-18 | Pirates v. Braves -145 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. We won with the Braves last night and we will back them again tonight in another great pitching situation. They snapped a three-game slide and saw their lead in the National League East grow to three games over the Phillies and with Boston coming to town for three games, this has turned into a big series ending game. After the victory last night, the Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record. Pittsburgh continued its offensive woes as it managed only three runs which was the 14th time is their last 18 games they have scored three runs or less. Pittsburgh is hitting just .209 over its last five games and going back, the Pirates are 17-41 in their last 58 road games against teams with a winning home record. We used Julio Teheran in his last start and quite frankly, he stunk, but the offense carried him in a 9-5 win over Tampa Bay. We will tail him again as he was solid heading into that outing as he posted three straight quality starts and he allowed three runs or less in five straight home outings. He ha dominated the Pirates in four starts since 206 as he has a 0.33 ERA. Nick Kingham returns to the rotation after being demoted in early August and them being recalled last week to work out of the bullpen. As a starter, he has struggled with a 5.02 ERA in 12 starts. Here, we play on home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 70-28 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) Atlanta Braves |
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09-02-18 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan -3.5 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Sunday Enforcer. We have the advantage of a small number here based on the fact these two teams are going in opposite directions. The Roughriders have been trotting along since quarterback Zach Collaros returned from injury, going 2-1, including handing the Stampeders their first loss of the season. They are a half-game behind Edmonton in the West Division, which plays Calgary tomorrow, so they could be sitting in second place come tomorrow provided they take care of business in the annual Banjo Bowl. Saskatchewan has won the yardage battle in three of its last five games and the two it did not, it was outgained by only 12 and 13 yards. The Roughriders are 3-2 at home but one of those losses was against Calgary and while the other one was an inexcusable one against Montreal, it was due to four thrown interceptions by the two backups. Winnipeg has lost two straight games and neither were really close but the problem actually goes back further. Despite victories over Hamilton and Toronto prior to that, the Blue Bombers have been outgained in all four games and by an average of 91.8 ypg so it has been a significant discrepancy. Winnipeg running back Andrew Harris continues to lead the league in rushing yards, but faces a strong defensive line anchored by the August Top Performer Charleston Hughes, who leads the league with 12 sacks. Saskatchewan is second in the CFL in rushing defense as it allowed just 78.3 ypg and that will be an issue here for Winnipeg considering its passing offense has not been good enough this season to carry it. 10* (644) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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09-01-18 | Louisiana Tech -10 v. South Alabama | Top | 30-26 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Game of the Week. Laying a significant number on the road is never ideal but it is justified here. Louisiana Tech has put together four straight winning seasons and while last year was the worst of the bunch, the Bulldogs went on to win their fourth consecutive bowl game. One thing that has eluded them is a C-USA Championship as they have gone to the title game twice, only to fall short. This could be one of their best team over this stretch as they bring back 15 starters and are the tenth most experienced team in the nation. They are led by quarterback J'Mar Smith who threw for almost 3,000 yards and 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions and in front of him are four returning starters on the offensive line. South Alabama will be going through some early season struggles. The Jaguars have a new head coach in Steve Campbell who has never been a head coach, or even a coordinator at the FBS level. He is bringing in a high powered aerial offense but the personnel is not in place for it to succeed quite yet. The Jaguars are still unsettled at the quarterback position as there were three possible starters listed on the depth chart released this week. Redshirt freshman Cephus Johnson won the job and this will be his first start. Overall, the Jaguars are one of the least experienced teams in the nation. In front of Johnson is just one returning starter as the offensive line is ranked No. 124 out of 130 teams in experience with just 23 total starts. The Jaguars are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games while Louisiana Tech has covered its last six game against the Sub Belt Conference. 10* (177) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
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09-01-18 | Rays +113 v. Indians | Top | 5-3 | Win | 113 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Cleveland took the opener of this series last night with a 3-0 victory thanks to a solid outing from Corey Kluber. The Indians will not have that type of advantage tonight as they continue to coast with a 14-game lead in the American League Central and likely third place among the three division winners. The big news yesterday was the acquisition of Josh Donaldson from Toronto but that does not come into play as there is no timetable for his return from a calf injury. Tampa Bay has lost two of three but is 9-2 over its last 11 games and has a solid edge tonight on the bump. When you can get an ace, and a real ace, at an underdog price, you have to jump on it. Blake Snell is a name not many know of but he is having a Cy Young type of season with a 2.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 25 starts and he posted a 1.38 in five August starts, allowing no more than a run in each outing. The Rays are 11-4 in his 15 starts when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Shane Bieber is 8-2 in his 14 starts but that record does not tell a true story as he has posted a 4.52 ERA and his numbers are worse at home. Since the start of July, he has a 7.08 ERA in four home outings and that is bad news as the Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 games against right-handed starters. 10* (971) Tampa Bay Rays |
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08-31-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. We are getting fair value on the Dodgers which are in dire need of a win following a loss in the series opener last night. They are now two games behind in the National League West and are 2.5 games out of the second spot in the National League Wild Card race. Los Angeles has been a disappointment at home all season as after going 63-26 for +14.6 units last season, it is just 35-34 for -25.2 units this year. The Dodgers have laid some big numbers but that is not the case tonight. Arizona has won two straight games and while the pitching has been dominant of late, the offense has done nothing as the Diamondbacks have averaged just 2.4 rpg over their last seven games. Zack Greinke is a big reason this line is low as he is still a top line pitcher with a 2.93 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the season. However, his ERA on the road is a run and a half higher than it is at home. He was great as a Dodger here but since coming to Arizona, he has a 7.04 ERA in four starts at Dodger Stadium. Hyun-Jin Ryu has made only nine starts but he has been solid with a 2.18 ERA and 1.01 WHIP which includes a 1.26 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in five home starts with the Dodgers going 4-1. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ARIZONA) - after allowing two runs or less in four straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 68-32 (68 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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08-31-18 | Storm v. Mercury -2 | Top | 66-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX MERCURY for our WNBA Friday Enforcer. The Mercury are backed into a corner and need three straight wins to avoid being bumped from the playoffs. After losing Game One by four points, Phoenix, which was still down by 17 points with 6 minutes left, went on a 23-6 run to end regulation, tying it on a three-pointer by Diana Taurasi with 3.7 seconds left. The Mercury eventually lost in overtime and now they are back home tonight and Sunday should they stay alive tonight. The key to success for Phoenix is getting off to a better start as Seattle has dominated the first three quarters of the series thus far, outscoring the Mercury 146-118 in that span. A return home can cure that in a hurry. The Storm are proving why they are the best team in the WNBA but we can definitely see a letdown tonight after that overtime victory on Tuesday. There is no desperation at this point with a 2-0 series lead and knowing they have a guaranteed game remaining at home even after the weekend. Seattle has not covered consecutive games against winning teams since the start of the moth while the Mercury are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning straight up record. Additionally, we play on home favorites that are averaging 77 or more ppg going up against an opponent after two straight wins by six points or less. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (604) Phoenix Mercury |
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08-31-18 | Colorado State +8 v. Colorado | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our CFB Friday Ultimate Underdog. The college football season kicked off last weekend with Hawaii and Colorado St. and we saw the Rams get embarrassed on national television as they lost by nine points as 17-point favorites. They made a late charge after falling behind by 30 points, but it was too little too late. Colorado St. outgained the Warriors by 36 total yards, so it was a game it could have and should have won. That loss will direct the betting public to Colorado and we have seen a move already as this line was seven points before the action last week and we have seen it rise to -7.5 in most places as 80 percent of bets placed at offshore books are on the Buffaloes. Colorado was looking to make it to two straight bowls last season and was well on the way to do so starting off 5-4 but it dropped its last three games to miss out. Some expect the Buffaloes to improve this season, but it could take some time as they bring back only 10 starters and are just No. 107 in the experience rankings heading into the season. With a multi-dimensional offensive attack to defend, Colorado will have their hands full come Friday. Their run defense struggled mightily a year ago and has two inexperienced starters at both end positions. The Buffaloes allowed 451 ypg last season which was 108 more ypg than the previous year. They do bring back starting quarterback Steven Montez Jr. but they lost their top three receivers as well as leading running back Phillip Lindsay who rushed for 1,507 yards. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 116-61 ATS (65.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (147) Colorado St. Rams |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest v. Tulane +7 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 77 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Tulane was three points away from its first bowl game since 2013 as it lost the regular season finale by a field goal to SMU when the Mustangs scored a touchdown with two minutes left. That gave the Green Wave plenty of motivation in the offseason and they will need to finish games better than they did a year ago, when they dropped four games by six or fewer points. They have 14 starters back including nine on the offense that had its best season since 2007. Wake Forest went to its second straight bowl game last season as it defeated Texas A&M in a thriller 55-52. Despite an 8-5 record, the Demon Deacons only outgained opponents by 9 ypg. Tulane has two big edges in this game. The first is at quarterback. Wake Forest starting quarterback Kendall Hinton was suspended for the first three games of the season by the coaching staff and true freshman Sam Hartman is slated to start and he is a pretty big unknown at this point. On the other side, junior-college transfer senior Jonathan Banks returns to lead the triple option based offense. He ran for 729 yards on 128 carries last season and was solid through the air as well which can be rare for an option quarterback. They run the option attack from the shotgun and pistol formations, using a no huddle style to keep opponents from subbing. Last year, the Demon Deacons had a trouble stopping the Georgia Tech triple option, giving up 427 yards on 6.5 ypc. Head coach Willie Fitz has been tough to prepare for early in the season as his teams are 12-3 ATS in the first month of the season. 10* (140) Tulane Green Wave |
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08-30-18 | Bills +3 v. Bears | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFLX Thursday Enforcer. The final week of the preseason is here and in most cases, the games are meaningless with deep roster spots being the only remaining factor before the regular season starts. Rarely do we see ant starters on the field, let alone quarterbacks, but because of the situation in Buffalo, that is not the case here. Although the Bills aren't likely to play most of their starters, Buffalo will likely evaluate players competing for starting spots. Entering the preseason finale, the Bills are still evaluating players competing for starting jobs at numerous positions including quarterback which is obviously the big one to look at here. We still do not know who the starter is going to be but all three in competition will be playing all out tonight depending on the time they get. This is a very good situation and one that is rare going into the final week of the preseason. On the other side, Mitchell Trubisky and Chase Daniel are fully entrenched as the No. 1 and No. 2 respectively so it will be Tyler Bray for the entire games tonight as he will be out to try and convince head coach Matt Nagy that the Bears should be keeping three quarterbacks. That likely will not happen though. Much of the Bears, who also played in five preseason games this offseason due to the Hall of Fame game, starters likely will not suit up at all on Thursday. Buffalo falls into a favorable situation as well as we play on underdogs or pickems that are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite, with a losing record. This situation is 47-21 ATS (69.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (117) Buffalo Bills |
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08-30-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -106 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Thursday Triple Play. The Pirates cooled off the red hot Cardinals last night as Trevor Williams and the bullpen shut out St. Louis which was the first time the Cardinals have not scored since July 11th. August has been a great month for St. Louis as it is 20-6 which has propelled it into the top spot in the National League Wild Card race. They are still in the divisional hunt as well as they trail first place Chicago by just 4.5 games. St. Louis is 17-4 this season after scoring and allowing three runs or less. The Pirates have been going in the opposite direction as they have lost 11 of their last 15 games as the offense has completely shut down. Pittsburgh has averaged a mere 2.6 rpg over this 15-game stretch. Going back, the Pirates are 16-39 in their last 55 road games against teams with a winning home record. John Gant has been on a roll as he has posted a 1.99 ERA over his last four starts, allowing two runs or less in each game. He has struggled against Pittsburgh but all three career starts came on the road. Joe Musgrove has been a solid addition to the Pirates rotation but the wins have been few and far between as they have gone 1-4 over his last five outings. 10* (954) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-29-18 | Blue Jays +103 v. Orioles | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Orioles have won the first two games of this series which snapped a 10-game losing streak against Toronto as the offense has exploded for 19 runs. It has not been a good spot though as the Orioles are 8-21 in their last 29 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Baltimore has not won three straight games since the end of July and even with the win last night, it is 1-6 in its last seven games following a win. Toronto has dropped three in a row following a five-game winning streak as the pitching has been dreadful, allowing 27 runs over the three-game skid. Ryan Borucki gets the ball for Toronto and he has seven quality outings in his 11 starts. Of the four that were not, three came against the Red Sox and Yankees so we can expect another strong outing tonight. Alex Cobb has been pitching a lot better after a horrible start to the season but it is impossible to ignore the fact Baltimore is 0-9 in his nine home starts and there is no reason to believe this streak gets broken. His run support has been poor and his 5.86 ERA has not helped. Toronto falls into a contrarian situation where we play on American League teams averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg while hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 300-198 (60.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (917) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-28-18 | Mystics v. Dream +2 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA DREAM for our WNBA Tuesday Enforcer. Washington took Game One of this series making this a must win game for Atlanta as it needs to avoid going to Washington down 2-0 in this series. Typically, we avoid must win sides because the linesmakers tend to shade the line based on them knowing the public will be on that must win team but that is not the case here. Granted, the line did come down one point from Game One, but the Dream are still the underdog so that point shift is insignificant. Atlanta is now 13-5 at home and the one big difference in Game One was turnovers. The Dream, who forced more turnovers than any other team in the WNBA this season, lost the turnover battle with the Mystics, forcing just four and committing eight. Washington has now won 11 of its last 12 games including two in the playoffs and it hits the road against with its 11-7 record on the highway. The Mystics shot only 38.9 percent from the floor but did go 11-26 from long range which means they shot just 36.9 percent on two-pointers. Additionally, they were perfect from the free throw line, going 20-20. Despite the loss, Atlanta is still 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games against teams allowing 73 or more ppg while going 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 80 or more points in its last game. 10* (318) Atlanta Dream |
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08-28-18 | Rays v. Braves -125 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Atlanta is coming off a successful 5-2 roadtrip and it has been able to widen the gap over the Phillies in the National League East to 3.5-games. This is the first time the Braves have been home since getting swept by Colorado in a four-game set to there will be plenty of motivation back in front of the home crowd. Additionally, the Braves are 7-0 in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. A big reason why this line is so low is because the Rays have won eight straight games. While they are thinking of a playoff push, it is not going to happen despite the pitching dominance of late. Tampa Bay has allowed three runs or less in all eight of the victories as it continues to utilize the bullpen pitching for the majority of the games. Ryan Stanek has been used the most with mixed results as the Rays are 9-21 in the 21 games he has started, and he has been average, especially on the road where Tampa Bay has gone 1-7 in his eight starts. Julio Teheran counters for Atlanta and he is in a good stretch with three straight quality starts and he has allowed three runs or less in five straight home outings. 10* (974) Atlanta Braves |
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08-27-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +131 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 131 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. We played against Toronto yesterday and will do so again on Monday as it comes in as a significant road favorite for all of the wrong reasons. The Blue Jays had won five straight games before the defeat on Monday and now they hit the road where they are 11 games under .500 and going back they are 1-5 in their last six games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Orioles are the worst team in baseball as they have lost eight straight games including a four-game sweep to the Yankees to end the week. Included in there were three losses to Toronto which made it 10 consecutive losses to the Blue Jays, but the schedule has played a big role in that as all 10 of those games came in Toronto. The Orioles are 4-1 in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. David Hess has some bad numbers, but he has turned the corner by posting a 2.89 ERA over his last three starts with each of those getting progressively better. In addition, all of those came on the road and if ever there is a contrarian play, this is it with the Orioles having lost his last 10 starts. That includes two against Toronto, but both were quality road starts. Sam Gaviglio gets the ball for Toronto and this is the most he has been favored by on the road all season. He has just one quality outing in nine road starts where he has posted an 8.36 ERA. An argument can be made he is facing the worst team in baseball but in his last road start, he was rocked by Kansas City, the second worst team in baseball. 10* (910) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-26-18 | Mercury v. Storm -6 | Top | 87-91 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE STORM for our WNBA Sunday Star Attraction. Phoenix made it through two single-elimination rounds to get to this point, defeating Dallas at home on Tuesday and then travelling to Connecticut on Thursday and upsetting the Sun. The Mercury have been a solid road team this season and that includes a win here but that was way back in May in the season opener for both teams. Since the adaptation of the single-elimination rounds, Phoenix is an incredible 13-0 in those one-and-done games. The Storm, after posting the best record in the regular season, earned a double-bye into the semis which gave them an opportunity to get home, get some rest and prepare as they awaited their opponent. Seattle will surely come out with some fire and going for some payback as Phoenix defeated Seattle in the 2007 semifinals enroute to the WNBA Championship, again in the 2011 semifinals, and last year in the first round of the playoffs. Seattle is 13-4 at home and on the season, the Storm are 7-0 ATS against teams that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg. Additionally, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game going up against an opponent after scoring 80 points or more. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (314) Seattle Storm |
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08-26-18 | Phillies -111 v. Blue Jays | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. It has been a rough stretch for the Phillies as they have dropped six of their last seven games but luckily, Atlanta has not been playing well either as they trail the Braves by just two games in the National League East. The Phillies are 14-3 in their last 17 games after losing the first two games of a series. Toronto meanwhile is going for a sweep of this homestand as it has won the first five games as the offense has averaged a healthy 6.2 rpg during the winning streak. However, the Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last five games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Vince Velazquez looks to stop the bleeding for Philadelphia and while a quick glance shows a recent poor stretch, it has not been that bad. He was limited to in his last start because of a rain delay and he was pitching well against Washington. He has a 2.97 ERA in 11 road starts and the fact the Phillies has lost his last six is keeping this number in a good place. Marco Estrada has been up and down, but it has mostly been the latter as he has just one quality outing over his last seven starts. The Blue Jays are 2-9 in his last 11 starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (975) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-25-18 | Wyoming -3.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 127 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Wyoming has made it to a bowl game in each of the last two seasons and while many thing there will be a dropoff due to the loss of first round draft pick quarterback Josh Allen, there should be no dropoff. Allen was not great last season as he completed just 56.3 percent of his passes while throwing for only 1,812 yards and 16 touchdowns. Even better news is that only one other starter on the offense has to be replaced. Head coach Craig Bohl is the real deal and the rebuild seems to finally be complete. Now it is time to take it to the next level like he did at North Dakota St. where he went 43-2 from 2011-13 with three straight national titles. The Cowboys did it with defense last season as they cut their ppg allowed nearly in half to just 17.5 ppg and shaved 118 ypg off from 2016. Wyoming brings back eight starters from that unit. The Aggies made it to their first bowl game in 57 years, but it will be difficult making it to two straight despite a favorable overall schedule. While the defense should be formidable for New Mexico St., the offense has to replace five starters including their quarterback, top running back and two top receivers. The offense was terrific thanks to the high-powered passing game that finished sixth in the nation averaging 340 yards per game and while there is potential this season, it may take a while to get going. Three starters return to a line that struggled in pass protection and there is no depth whatsoever. While both teams have solid defenses, the Wyoming offense is much more experienced than that of the Aggies which will be the ultimate difference. 10* (291) Wyoming Cowboys |
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08-25-18 | Saskatchewan v. BC -2.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the B.C. LIONS for our CFL Game of the Month. We were on Saskatchewan last week as they pulled off the huge upset over then undefeated Calgary and we know what we can expect this week and that is a major letdown. The Roughriders improved to 3-2 at home with that victory but they are just 1-2 on the road and their inconsistent play hurts them even more coming off that big victory. This rivalry has not gone their way of late when having to travel as the Roughriders have struggled in B.C., losing each of their last four regular season meetings and seven of their last nine dating back to October 31st of 2010. The Roughriders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. B.C. is coming off a tough one-point loss in Toronto last week and a win would have given the Lions their first road win of the season, but they fell to 0-5 on the highway. Conversely, they are 3-0 at home including a pair of impressive wins over Winnipeg and Edmonton and this is an extremely important game when looking at the big picture. A victory means B.C. and Saskatchewan are likely in a battle going forward for a playoff spot, but a loss means not only would the Lions fall four points back, they would also be behind the eight ball in terms of the head to head tiebreaker. While the season is just half over, and we do not back teams just because they are in must win spots, this one is different because of the situation. 10* (368) B.C. Lions |
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08-25-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies -140 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Rockies were a big letdown last night as they generated 15 hits but managed only five runs as they left 24 men on base. Colorado remains a game behind Arizona in the National League West and has also fallen a game out of the Wild Card chase. St. Louis is now 4-0 on this current roadtrip following last night and a three-game sweep of the Dodgers. The Cardinals are rolling with the best record in baseball for August which propelled it into the first Wild Card spot in the National League. That is keeping this line down and despite the loss on Friday, the Rockies are 12-3 in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning road record. German Marquez has been on a roll as he has tossed five straight quality starts as well as eight of his last nine. This includes three quality outings at home and he is on pace to keep it going. The Rockies are 7-2 in his last nine starts against teams with a winning record. Miles Mikolas struggled in his first start at Coors Field and we are expecting the same for John Gant. He has just two quality outings in his five road starts and those came against the Marlins and Giants, two of the three lowest scoring teams in the National League. The Cardinals are 3-8 in his last 11 starts against teams with a winning record. Additionally, we play on National League home favorites of -125 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. This situation is 132-59 (69.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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08-25-18 | Chiefs -3 v. Bears | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
**Note 1:00 PM ET Start** This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. This is a perfect example of why not to bet preseason games early. We have seen a significant line shift in this games, upwards of five points in some places, but it is justified. The Bears announced late Friday night that they will not be playing most of their first-team players tonight against Kansas City. After their best week of practices so far in 2018, Matt Nagy met with the team to inform them most starters, including Mitchell Trubisky, will not play. Nagy's reasoning is that the Bears have practiced more than every other NFL team, because they began a week early due to their participation in the preseason-opening Hall of Fame Game on Aug. 2. While not fair to the home fans, it makes complete sense. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will play their starters into the third quarter. Since 2007 there have been roughly 20 quarterbacks who have started their careers and played eight or more games in a season and of those 20 teams, Patrick Mahomes offensive personnel is the best according to a report from PFR so this has the potential to be a really powerful offense. According to Gary McKenzie, since the NFL merger, no team has replaced their starting quarterback with a 1st or 2nd year quarterback after gaining more than 6,000 yards of offense in the year prior so Mahomes is walking into the best scenario for a young quarterback in over 50 years. 10* (265) Kansas City Chiefs |
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08-24-18 | Lions +3 v. Bucs | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFLX Friday Enforcer. Detroit is off to a 0-2 start in the preseason and along with Tennessee, they are the only two remaining winless teams that have new head coaches. Matt Patricia certainly brings in a winning mentality from New England and while player evaluations and health are at the top of the list during this exhibition season, getting a winning attitude into the Lions is necessary. Patricia said he plans to give more playing time to his starters, without divulging how much they will actually play, but it will be at least one half and said the Lions have taken a more comprehensive approach to planning for Friday's game against the Buccaneers, scouting an opponent for the first time this summer. Matthew Stafford did not look very good last week but given the fact he and his wife had a baby the night before the game, and he was not exactly playing well-rested, it is only fair we give Stafford a pass. He should see even more time in this game, and it will simply be good to get a sense of where he is at in what is likely his final tuneup before the regular season. Last week for Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston threw for 226 yards and two touchdowns after coming off the bench in the second quarter. Ryan Fitzpatrick had accuracy issues which he will try and overcome as he will get the start and play with the first team to get ready for the season opener. Detroit falls into a great preseason situation as we play against favorites after a win by 14 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1993. 10* (259) Detroit Lions |
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08-24-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies +104 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. We won with the Rockies yesterday as things were looking bleak before Ian Desmond hit a two-run home run with two outs in the ninth innings to pull off the 4-3 victory. Colorado remains a game behind Arizona in the National League West and while home cooking has not been as great as it has been in previous years, being a home underdog here is not justified in looking at the big picture. St. Louis is rolling right now, winning 17 of its last 21 games following a three-game sweep over the Dodgers to open this roadtrip. The Cardinals are now right in the playoff mix as they are just three games behind the Cubs in the National League Central and they hold a half-game lead in the Wild Card standings. Miles Mikolas has to be a frontrunner for comeback players of the year as he has been great with a 2.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 25 starts following a three-year stint in Japan after a dreadful year in Texas in 2014. He is 7-0 on the road despite an ERA that is higher than it is at home and he gets his first taste of Coors Field tonight with the wind blowing out on top of it. Antonio Senzatela gets the ball for Colorado and he is making his seventh start since entering the rotation. It has been uneven but what he has pitched great at home with a 0.71 in two home starts. On top of that, his best road start of the season came in St. Louis where he allowed just one run in six innings. 10* (960) Colorado Rockies |
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08-23-18 | Eagles v. Browns -3 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFLX Thursday Star Attraction. Injury info will play a big role on this game as a lot of significant names have been confirmed for the Eagles. While we will not see Carson Wentz tonight, and likely not at all during the preseason, the Eagles are dealing with other significant injuries. Nick Foles is not 100 percent but will play tonight after jarring hos shoulder last week against the Patriots. Left tackle Jason Peters and running back Darren Sproles will sit out Thursday as both are coming off reconstructive knee surgeries. Additionally, wide receiver Alshon Jeffery remains on the physically unable to perform list and is unlikely to make an appearance this preseason while fellow wideout Nelson Agholor and running back Jay Ajayi are dealing with lower-body injuries. Cleveland is pretty healthy, and the starters are expected to play into the third quarter. While the Browns have stunk the last two years and even beyond that, they are significantly improved this season with their roster and they will be out to prove something tonight as their preseason has been pretty solid thus far. Cleveland falls into a solid preseason situation as we play on teams that are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 31-12 ATS (72.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (252) Cleveland Browns |
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08-23-18 | Edmonton +3.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON ESKIMOS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. We have been high on Hamilton this season, justifying that it is better than its record shows and we still believe in that. The Tiger-Cats lost at Winnipeg in their last game two weeks ago. so they do have the benefit of having an extra week of preparation here as they try to move to a game under .500. The problem for Hamilton is that it has struggled against the better teams it has played, going 1-4 against the West Division. That lone win came at Edmonton so while many will think Hamilton has the matchup edge which is not the case and the Eskimos will be out for payback. One of the biggest things hampering Hamilton is they give up a lot of sacks and getting to the quarterback has been a strength of Edmonton so far this season. Hamilton possesses the second best defense in the CFL, but the Eskimos are not far behind, allowing fewer than 17 ypg more. The Edmonton offense is scary good, led by quarterback Mike Reilly. Even more impressive could be the receiving corps as Duke Williams leads all CFL receivers with 831 yards while Derel Walker is right behind him with 816 yards. Since 1958, players from the same team have finished first and second in receiving yards only six times. The Eskimos rebounded from a loss at B.C. with a blowout win over Montreal last week and in nine games this season, they have won the yardage battle in eight of those. Edmonton is ranked No. 2 in the CFL Power Rankings and this has turned into a big game as a win here gets the Eskimos to within a game of first place Calgary heading into their bye week and with a game at Calgary following that. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a non-conference game. This situation is 41-11 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (361) Edmonton Eskimos |
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08-23-18 | Sparks v. Mystics -4.5 | Top | 64-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON MYSTICS for our WNBA Thursday Star Attraction. We played against Los Angeles on Tuesday and while Minnesota outshot the Sparks 46 percent to 43.5 percent and dominated the offensive glass, the Lynx were only 4-15 from long range and hit a mere six free throws. Los Angeles now has to head east on short notice and it brings in an unimpressive 8-9 road record including four straight losses on the highway. Washington will have a significant home advantage tonight. It will not be in its usual home, the cavernous, 18,000-capacity Capital One Arena as renovations will have the Mystics move to the Smith Center on the George Washington campus that seats just 5,000. Considering Washington averaged 6,136 fans this season, it will be a full house that is right on top of the players and that is a huge home edge. Washington is all too familiar with this type of situation as last season, Minnesota had to relocate from the huge Target Center to the much smaller Williams Arena during the playoffs and the smaller venue was a big advantage with the Lynx winning games against the Mystics by 10 and 20 points. Rest is a significant edge for Washington as it has been home since Sunday while this is the fourth game in seven days for Los Angeles and all have involved travel in the days in-between. The Sparks are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games when playing their fourth game in seven games and this is not a good situation for any team. 10* (310) Washington Mystics |
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08-22-18 | Braves v. Pirates -105 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. After getting swept in four games at home against Colorado, the Braves have responded with a pair of wins to open this series as the pitching has led the way by allowing just one run total. They got a gem from Kevin Gausman last night and they now have a two-game lead over Philadelphia in the National League East. Atlanta has been a solid road team this season, but a lot of that success came early as the Braves are just 10-10 over their last 20 road games. The Pittsburgh offense continues to struggle as the Pirates have scored four runs or less in 10 straight games which has come right after a four-game stretch where they plated 34 runs. So far on this six-game homestand, Pittsburgh has been shutout three times and has scored 1, 2 and 3 runs in the other three games. While all of this may seem as a reason not to back the Pirates, they are facing Julio Teheran who can be a very good pitcher, but he has his moments of blowing up and that is especially the case on the road. Over his last three road games, he has a 9.00 ERA, allowing 15 runs in 15 innings and while one of those games was against the Yankees, the other two were against the Mets and Marlins, two of the lowest scoring teams in baseball. The Braves are 0-4 in his last four starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Trevor Williams meanwhile has been outstanding as he has posted a 0.75 ERA over his last six starts, allowing not a single run in four of those. 10* (954) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-21-18 | Lynx +6.5 v. Sparks | Top | 68-75 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA LYNX for our WNBA Tuesday Enforcer. This has a weird look to it as Minnesota and Los Angeles have been the two best teams in the WNBA over the last couple years as they have met in the WNBA Finals the last two seasons and now they are meeting in the first round in a play-in game where it is win or go home. Los Angeles got the home game as it finished a game better than Minnesota as these teams have been pretty equal then and now. However, this line is telling us something different as there is significant value on the Lynx. Over the 2016 and 2017 regular seasons and playoffs, the Lynx and Sparks met 16 times, with each winning eight games. This season, Los Angeles took three of four meetings but one of those was by just one point, so it was nearly a wash again. Los Angeles has regresses on both sides of the ball as it averaged 78.9 ppg compared to 83.5 ppg and 83.0 ppg over the last two seasons. Additionally, the Sparks allowed 77.0 ppg comparted to 75.2 ppg in 2017 and 75.9 ppg in 2016. Both teams average the same amount of points on offense and while the 77 ppg allowed by the Sparks leads the WNBA, Minnesota allows 78.3 ppg which is second best in the league. Minnesota does not want to go out like this, especially with Lindsay Whalen retiring after the season and getting her back home at some point. A win Tuesday would send the Lynx cross-country to either Washington or Connecticut for another single-elimination game Thursday. A win there and the Lynx would begin their best-of-five league semifinals on the road Sunday. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are allowing 44 percent shooting or worse on the season going up against an opponent after three straight games allowing 45 percent shooting or higher over their last three games. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (307) Minnesota Lynx |
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08-21-18 | Twins v. White Sox +106 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Chicago won last night in Minnesota to make it five wins in its last six games and now the teams head to Chicago for the next two games. The White Sox have struggled both at home and on the road so the fact they are home underdogs tonight should come as no surprise with the pitching matchup and what the public sees. The offense has been hot as Chicago has averaged 7.4 rpg over this stretch and has a chance to keep it going here. The Twins have been playing well this month but most of the success has taken place at home where they have gone 19-6 over their last 25 games but they are just 2-8 over their last 10 road games. And it has not just been against good teams as going back, the Twins are 1-7 in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Jose Berrios gets the attention here as he is an All Star, but he has struggled since a good start to the season. He had a 3.15 ERA through his first 16 starts but he has posted a 4.30 ERA over his last 10 games. He prefers pitching at home as opposed to on the road and this has been the case his whole career as he has a 3.75 ERA in 31 home games but that jumps to a 5.27 ERA in 34 road games and going back, the Twins are 4-18 in his last 22 road starts. White Sox fans will get their first look at Michael Kopech who is making his Major League debut. He was traded over from Boston in the Chris Sale deal and he is the top pitching prospect on the team while being the overall No. 9 prospect in baseball as of last month. He posted a 3.70 ERA in 24 starts this season at Triple-A Charlotte with 170 strikeouts in 126. innings and has been outstanding over his past seven starts, going 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA over that stretch. 10* (920) Chicago White Sox |
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08-20-18 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -171 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -171 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers took tow of three in Seattle over the weekend and have won three of their last four games following a five-game losing streak that sent them into third place in the National League West. They are two games behind Arizona and a game and a half behind Colorado which is also the deficit for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Dodgers are 92-43 in their last 135 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. St. Louis lost Sunday against Milwaukee which put a temporary halt on their hot streak where they were 10-1 over their previous 11 games. St. Louis has won five straight road games, but it has not faced a winning team on the road since late July. Los Angeles sends Alex Wood to the hill and he has been excellent of late, allowing three runs or less in 11 straight starts, posting a 2.53 ERA over that stretch. Going back, the Dodgers are 17-4 in his last 21 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. St. Louis counters with Austin Gomber who has gotten off to a solid start since entering the rotation. He has made four starts and has allowed two runs or less three times but only one of those games came against a winning team at that team is just one game over .500. Los Angeles is 62-29 in their last 91 games against left-handed starters and fall into a solid situation where we play against National League underdogs with a money line of +150 or more that are averaging 4.5 or more rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 83-21 (79.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (958) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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08-19-18 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan +7 | Top | 27-40 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Sunday Enforcer. Calgary has been the class of the CFL for upwards of the last decade and it is showing it again this season with a perfect 7-0 record. The Stampeders will not be going undefeated this season and coming off a bye week, they are in a vulnerable spot tonight against a desperate team. Showing how dominant they have been, they have been up by at least 14 points in all seven of their games this season and only three teams have done that in seven consecutive games in CFL history, and no team has ever made it to eight straight. This is the best defensive team in the league, but the Roughriders have a solid defense of their own and if it turns into a low scoring game, the underdog has the significant advantage. Adding to it, a home underdog of a touchdown has an even bigger advantage. The Roughriders are also coming off a bye week and it helps more than hurts coming off a pair of losses including a loss to Edmonton in their last game as they were up by two points late in the fourth quarter before eventually losing by seven points. Saskatchewan has already lost at home once to Calgary this season as it fell by 12 points, but it outgained the Stampeders as special teams ended up being the difference. The fact the Roughriders gave up 24 points in the first quarter did not help either so getting off to a better start this time around is crucial. Here, we play on underdogs or pickems that are coming off a loss against a division rival, with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 on the season. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (378) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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08-19-18 | Rockies v. Braves -127 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -127 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. We are going back to the well one more time with the Braves after a brutal loss last night as they blew a 3-0 lead in the ninth inning with two outs and nobody on before eventually losing in extra innings. Atlanta ha dropped the first three games of this series and last night was the second time in the first three games that it has allowed three ninth-inning runs to eventually lose. The Braves are still a half-game up on the Phillies in the National League East thanks to another gem from Jacob deGrom in his win over Philadelphia yesterday. The Rockies have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last couple months and they can take the lead in the National League West with a win and an Arizona loss, but we do not see either happening today. German Marquez takes the hill for Colorado and while he has had his struggles at home, he has been solid on the road with a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 12 starts but this is not a good spot. He allowed seven runs against Atlanta in his first start against the Braves this season and on the year, he has allowed 20 home runs, which is tied for tenth most in the National League, and the Braves are 11-3 after two straight games with no home runs this season. Anibal Sanchez has to be at the top of the list for most surprising pitcher as he has a 3.07 ERA through 16 starts after posting a 5.67 ERA over the last three years covering 415.2 innings. The Braves are 6-0 in his last 6 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (908) Atlanta Braves |
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08-18-18 | Royals +123 v. White Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 123 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Yes, we are betting on the second worst team in baseball. Even bad teams win at least 30 percent of the time so picking the right spots is essential and this is one of those. As no surprise, the Royals come as underdogs once again, but they possess a significant edge on the mound in a good spot to steal Game Two. The White Sox have won three straight games and have been playing solid baseball this month as they are 8-7 in August but three of those losses came with Dylan Covey was on the hill and all were at home. He has a 6.06 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 16 starts and the numbers are not much better at home where he has a 5.44 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. The White Sox are 0-5 in his last five home starts. Brad Keller has been a solid addition to the rotation as he has a 3.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 13 starts which came after 21 relief appearances. His first start here was not good but he came back by allowing two runs in 6.2 innings in his encore against the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. Here, we play against American League home teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start. This situation is 33-14 (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (973) Kansas City Royals |
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08-18-18 | Raiders -1 v. Rams | Top | 15-19 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND RAIDERS for our NFL Saturday Star Attraction. Like last night, we are going with the sharp line movement again today with the Raiders are they opened as three-point underdogs but are now favored by a point in some places. The move is identical to that of Kansas City last night based on late information coming through that starters would play a full half. In this case, it is the opposite as for the second game in a row, Rams head coach Sean McVay confirmed that he will keep nearly all starters sidelined to avoid injury. The decision to do so was made easier because the Rams play the Raiders again in a few weeks. Oakland will utilize their starters a little bit more but because these teams meet in Week One of the regular season, it will be a pretty vanilla approach. One big factor after the starters depart is that there is a quarterback competition going on for the backup spot. Connor Cook was the first quarterback off the bench last week against Detroit, and he took full advantage. A solid performance did not earn Cook the right to back up Derek Carr as head coach Jon Gruden insists that job remains competitive, and that E.J. Manuel would get more work against the Rams. On the other side, it is imperative that Sean Mannion or Brandon Allen step up their play as neither has looked good and Mannion was downright horrible last week against the Ravens. While both will be playing for the backup spot, comparing the Rams and Raiders quarterback situation gives a big edge to Oakland. Los Angeles looked clueless last week against the Ravens and many will flock to the Rams this week expecting a bounce back, similar to the public riding the Falcons last night but the line movement tells a lot once again. 10* (419) Oakland Raiders |
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08-18-18 | BC v. Toronto +3 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO ARGONAUTS for our CFL Saturday Enforcer. Toronto is not getting much respect here as it is in the role of home underdog for the fifth time in five games. The difference here is the fact the first four times were against teams with winning records, three from the West Division and Ottawa which is 6-3 on the season. The Argonauts have played the toughest schedule in the CFL so the fact the reigning Grey Cup Champions are just 2-5 should not come as a huge surprise. Another factor is quarterback. Ricky Ray was lost for the season in Week Two and James Franklin took over, but he was ineffective. Enter McLeod Bethel-Thompson who made his first start two weeks ago against Ottawa and he was outstanding as he was 25-37 for 302 yards, four touchdowns and just one interception as he led Toronto back from a 24-point deficit. The Argonauts are coming off a bye week, which does not help the momentum from that victory, but it does give Bethel-Thompson an extra week of preparation which is important for his second career start. B.C. has been playing a lot better since Travis Lulay has taken over at quarterback, but it could be just an illusion. The Lions have been outgained in three of his four starts and six of their seven games overall. This includes getting outgained by 107 and 91 yards the past two games and the overall numbers are right there with Toronto so making the Lions the road chalk seems to be very aggressive, but it is based on public action and right now that action is all over B.C. 10* (374) Toronto Argonauts |
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08-17-18 | Diamondbacks -123 v. Padres | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Arizona took the opener of this series last night to maintain its 1.5-game lead over Colorado in the National League West. It moved to 3-3 on this current roadtrip and the success should continue as the Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. The Padres have lost four straight games as the offense continues to produce nothing as they have scored just nine runs over the three games. San Diego has lost 21 of its last 26 home games. Arizona sends Robbie Ray to the hill and has admittedly been inconsistent this season as Arizona has lost his last five starts but he pitched well in the three road outings. He has been exceptional away from home with a 2.70 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and going back, the Diamondbacks are 11-1 in his last 12 starts as a road favorite of -110 or higher. Additionally, Arizona is 10-0 in his last 10 road games against National League teams with an on base percentage .315 or worse. Joey Lucchesi has pitched well for San Diego this season, but he is coming off his first quality outing since April 15th and that was just the third time all season he was able to go six innings. The Padres are 0-6 in his last six starts against the National League West. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are hitting .255 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75. This situation is 87-37 (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (913) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-17-18 | Ottawa +6.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 44-21 | Win | 100 | 99 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the OTTAWA REDBLACKS four our CFL Friday Enforcer. Two weeks ago, Ottawa blew a 38-14 lead late in the third quarter as Toronto outscored the RedBlacks 28-3 the rest of the way to pull off the outright victory. Ottawa clearly came out flat last week against Montreal as it avoided the upset by scoring the final 13 points in the fourth quarter after trailing the Alouettes 17-11 after three quarters. So now the positive momentum is on their side heading into Week Ten. It was a game that should not have been that close as the RedBlacks rung up 587 yards of net offense Saturday night, including a 69-yard touchdown drive that closed out the victory, with 15 seconds left on the clock. They outgained Montreal by 330 total yards and while the challenge will be more difficult here, the linesmakers have made a number based on a score and not what really transpired. Ottawa is 9-0 ATS in its last nine road games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread while going 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog of seven points or less. Winnipeg comes in with an identical 5-3 record as it has won three straight games including a six-point victory over Hamilton last week. The Blue Bombers were outgained by 120 yards, so this was also a game that differed from what really happened, and it was the Tiger-Cats that hurt themselves with a pair of lost fumbles and 13 penalties. This score is also playing into the linesmakers number, the same way the Ottawa games from last week is as well. The Blue Bombers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. Ottawa falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off two straight division games. This situation is 116-66 ATS (63.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (371) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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08-17-18 | Aces v. Wings -3.5 | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS WINGS for our WNBA Supreme Annihilator. The final spot in the WNBA playoffs is on the line tonight between Las Vegas and Dallas which seasons have gone in opposite directions, but we feel the home team will come through in desperate measures. The rest of the season is simple. The Aces make the playoffs if they win their final two games while the Wings make the playoffs if they beat the Aces tonight as they would own the tiebreaker with a 3-0 season sweep. While this is a must win for Las Vegas to stay alive, it is also a must win for Dallas based on what has happened and what lies ahead. The Wings have lost nine consecutive games, fired coach Fred Williams on Sunday and will close the regular season at the top-seeded Seattle Storm on Sunday. The Aces have won their last two games, at home against the league's two worst teams New York and Indiana, after breaking a five-game losing streak. If there is any good news looking forward for Dallas it is the fact Seattle can clinch the No. 1 seed tonight with a win over New York which is a near lock, so the Storm will rest starters on Sunday. At the same time, the Aces play Atlanta on Sunday and the Dream likely would rest their starters as well having clinched the No. 2 seed. While it is a must win for both, Dallas does not want to have Sunday matter. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a loss by 15 points or more going up against an opponent after scoring 80 points or more. This situation is 46-20 ATS (69.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (310) Dallas Wings |
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08-17-18 | Chiefs -1 v. Falcons | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFLX Friday Supreme Annihilator. We obviously missed the good number here as Atlanta opened as a three-point home favorite, but the Chiefs have shifted to the favorite based on information late in the week. We will gladly take new number in this case as opposed to grabbing an early number on the other side which many did based on the Falcons getting shut out last week and expecting a bounce back this week. Andy Reid confirmed to the media that Chiefs starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs starters will get an entire half of play. Reid also said that the second team will get the third quarter and the third team the fourth quarter. This is exactly why we wait during the preseason, so we can get this valuable information and most of the time, the line movement does not even come into play. Mahomes is a special talent with a big arm that we will see more of tonight. Last week, of 44 dropbacks on Thursday night against the Texans, the Chiefs ran only eight route concepts that threatened the Texans vertically. They are expected to open it up more tonight as Reid has already said the first game was simply about getting live game action under their belt. We played against the Falcons last week and they are not only in a tough matchup spot this week, they are not going to counter by going with their starters for long. Head coach Dan Quinn said Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman will be available but implied they will play very little, if at all. As mentioned last week, Quinn has made it clear he does not care about preseason results as Atlanta is now 0-5 both straight up and against the number going back to last season. 10* (409) Kansas City Chiefs |
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08-16-18 | Blue Jays -128 v. Royals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We won with Toronto last night as it won its second straight 6-5 game and looks to take the series tonight. The Blue Jays are now 20-7 in their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 and thy are in good position to keep the offense rolling tonight before heading to New York for a three-game set with the Yankees. They were able to get to Jorge Lopez who was making just his third Major League start and tonight they will be facing a pitcher making his first ever Major League start. Kansas City remains a half-game ahead of Baltimore for the worst record in baseball as the Royals are now 48 games under .500 which almost seems unfathomable considering they won the World Series just three years ago. The Royals are 19-46 in their last 65 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Sam Gaviglio takes the hill for Toronto and he has been having an inconsistent season and while it may be surprising that he is favored on the road because of his numbers, it is not surprising. His numbers on the road are not good but it has been a brutal slate as all eight of his road starts have come against teams with winning records including five against teams currently holding down playoff spots. Glenn Sparkman has pitched in 10 Major League games, all in relief, and has an 8.47 ERA and 2.12 WHIP over 17 innings. We just cannot see him being able to have much success here. 10* (969) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-16-18 | Steelers +5.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-51 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFLX Thursday Enforcer. Once news came out Ben Roethlisberger was out on injury protocol, this line went from 2.5 to 5.5 which is a huge overadjustment considering he would not have played much to begin with. Additionally, on the same day, Packers head coach Mike McCarthy confirmed that Aaron Rodgers would in fact be starting which helped drive up the line, but the Rodgers info means little. He will see a series, maybe two, as health is the bigger issue for Green Bay. Rodgers played three series and 26 plays last preseason and two series and 26 plays in the 2016 preseason. That is down from five series and 45 plays in 2015, eight series and 69 plays in 2014 and 16 series and 93 plays in Rodgers first season as the starter in 2008 so priorities are changing. Mike Tomlin said that Mason Rudolph and Josh Dobbs will be featured exclusively in the Steelers second game of the preseason and that is not a bad thing after seeing last week. Dobbs went 9-of-13 with a touchdown and an interception against the Eagles while Rudolph, who played the entire second half, went 7-of-12 for 102 yards. This was with no scheming but this week, both quarterbacks got a taste of the Packers defense and they were able to do some gameplanning. The Packers played a vanilla defense last week and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine confirmed they will be doing the same again this week. We will back the value as a line move of three points for a preseason game is absurdly too much. 10* (405) Pittsburgh Steelers |
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08-15-18 | Liberty +11 v. Aces | Top | 72-85 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK LIBERTY for our WNBA Wednesday Enforcer. As we near the end of the WNBA season, teams are vying for playoff spots and playoff seeds. Because of this and these must win spots, linesmakers have to overadjust lines because the public tends to go right after those teams in must win situations and we are seeing that tonight. Las Vegas is trying to chase down Dallas for the eighth and final playoff spot as it is percentage points behind, having one less victory but also having one less defeat, although the forfeit against Washington has not officially been added yet based on the standings. There are just two games left in the season after this one with one of those at Dallas on Friday and then the season finale against Atlanta, who could be resting their starters. This line is simply too high. New York is playing out the string of its extremely disappointing season as it has now lost nine straight games. However, all but one of those were against teams currently holding down a playoff spot but it has not been an easy stretch. New York has been a double-digit underdog three times this season and those were games at Washington, Connecticut and Los Angeles and Las Vegas does not fall into that group. Here, we play on road teams after three or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 55-22 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (303) New York Liberty |
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