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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-25-18 | Reds v. Braves -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Game of the Month. The Braves lost two of three against the Orioles over the weekend, but they still maintain a 2.5-game lead in the National League East. They are 22-15 at home and have won seven of their last 10 games here despite the two losses to open the homestand. Cincinnati is tied with Cleveland for the hottest team in baseball right now as it has won seven straight games including a four-game sweep at home against the Cubs. The run includes six wins at home and the Reds hit the road where they are seven games under .500 and going back, they are 9-20 in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Atlanta hands the ball to Mike Foltynewicz who is having a fantastic season that not many even know about. He has a 2.16 ERA which is fourth best in the National League. While his numbers are slightly worse at home than on the road, that is due to just one poor starts against the Giants in early May and he has not allowed a run at home in his last three starts over 19 innings. Overall, he has allowed two runs or less in 12 of his 13 outings. Tyler Mahle counters for the Reds and he has been solid of late, but he has struggled on the road with only two quality outings in eight starts. The Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 home games against right-handed starters and they fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 54-9 (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (906) Atlanta Braves |
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06-23-18 | Calgary v. Toronto +3.5 | Top | 41-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO ARGONAUTS for our CFL Game of the Week. Week Two finds the rematch of the Grey Cup Final from last season and Calgary will be out for revenge but playing this game on the road is a different story. Calgary got away with one last week as Hamilton was trailing by a touchdown with less than two minutes remaining in the game and the Tiger-Cats were on the march to at least tie the game when Calgary defensive back Brandon Smith intercepted Jeremiah Masoli and the Stampeders added on a long touchdown run to cement the cover. The Stampeders were inefficient on offense as on the first five trips into the redzone, the Stampeders generated just four field goals and an interception. Toronto lost at Saskatchewan in its opener on the road, but it is back home where it went 7-3 last season and it looking to show that last season was no fluke. Argonauts quarterback Ricky Ray did not play in the preseason and it looked like he was a little behind game speed until the second half against Saskatchewan. That lack of offense is giving Toronto some value here with Calgary once again being a public favorite. Toronto falls into a couple solid situations. First, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that averaged 385 or more total ypg the previous season. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1996. Additionally, underdogs of three or more points coming off a loss are 57-30-3 ATS (65.5 percent) since 2005. 10* (368) Toronto Argonauts |
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06-23-18 | Orioles v. Braves -115 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Baltimore erupted for six runs in the ninth inning and eventually won in extra innings last night to avoid its 30th loss on the road but it still possesses the worst road record in baseball at 11-29. The Orioles have won consecutive games only twice in the last five weeks and going back, they are 7-23 in their last 30 games following a win. Atlanta has now lost two straight games which is just the second time this month the Braves have dropped consecutive games. Their lead in the National League East is down to 2.5 games over the Phillies and we expect a bounce back here at a short price as the Braves are 24-8 in their last 32 games following a loss. Dylan Bundy is having a fine season, but he remains inconsistent on the road with just three quality outings in six starts. The Orioles are 0-5 in his last five road starts against teams with a winning record while the Braves are 9-1 in their last 10 home games against right-handed starters. Julio Teheran gets the ball for Atlanta and while he has been better on the road than at home, he has been much better of late. In his last five home starts, four have been quality outings and overall, the Braves are 6-1 in his seven home starts on the season while the Orioles are 12-39 in their last 51 games against right-handed starters. 10* (930) Atlanta Braves |
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06-22-18 | Hamilton +6.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TIGER-CATS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. Edmonton comes in at 1-0 while Hamilton is 0-1 but those records could easily be reversed heading into this game. Trailing by a touchdown with less than two minutes remaining in the game, the Tiger-Cats were on the march to at least tie the game when Calgary defensive back Brandon Smith intercepted Jeremiah Masoli and the Stampeders added on a long touchdown run to cement the cover. In the other game, Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly led his team to 11 points in the final 1:22 of the fourth quarter to charge an Edmonton comeback. Both of those results are inflating a line that should not be this big, so we are getting value based on recency bias and skewed Week One results. While Hamilton lost last week against arguably the best team in the league in Calgary, it proved it can play with the big boys and as mentioned last week, this is going to be a surprise team that could easily take down the East Division. The Tiger-Cats missed the playoffs last season after a 0-8 start, but they finished strong by going 6-4 over their last 10 games after June Jones was hired as head coach to take over for Kent Austin. Masoli was exceptional last week, going 25-36 for 344 yards and that late pick was his only flaw. The Eskimos are expected to make a big run this season but because that is a publicized theory, they are going to be overpriced throughout the season and that is the case here. The early season underdog situation was just 2-2 last week but it is still in play as is the situation where we play against teams coming off a divisional win that had a winning record last season, playing a team that had a losing season. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (365) Hamilton Tiger-Cats |
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06-22-18 | Mystics v. Sky +5 | Top | 93-77 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO SKY for our WNBA Friday Terminator. This is the second game of a home-and-home set between Washington and Chicago with the Mystics winning the first game by 28 points on Tuesday. It was the fifth straight win and cover by Washington in this series, four of those coming by at least 15 points, which could be playing a role in this line. What we do know is that the number is skewed based on the most recent game as the Mystics covered the 9.5-point spread with ease but are now seeing just a 3.5-point adjustment despite the venue change. They are 3-5 over their last eight games following a 4-0 start and have lost their last three games following a win and by an average of 9.0 ppg. Additionally, Washington is just 9-18 ATS in its last 27 games coming off a double-digit conference win. It has been a rough run for Chicago as it has lost five straight games after a 3-3 start to the season, but the schedule has been brutal with four of those games coming on the road and the lone home game coming against 9-2 Los Angeles. Speaking of that game, the Sky were getting 8.5 points from the Sparks and are getting only 2.5 points less here and there is no way that Washington is just 2.5 points worse than Los Angeles. Chicago has failed to cover a home game against teams with a winning record however, those games were against the respective conference leaders. 10* (616) Chicago Sky |
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06-22-18 | Rangers v. Twins -107 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Twins are coming off two impressive series wins over Cleveland and Boston and despite being six games under .500, they are just six games behind the Indians in the American League Central. Minnesota took two of three over the Red Sox to open the week as it is now a game over .500 at home and going back, it has won five of its last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. Texas has suddenly caught fire as it has won five straight games including a three-game sweep in Kansas City against the hapless Royals. The starting pitching has led the way with a 3.13 ERA over this stretch, but things should change in a big way tonight. The Rangers are 4-11 in their last 15 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game while also going 4-11 in their last 15 games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. The reason for the starting pitching demise is that Mike Minor takes the hill for Texas and while he has been decent at home, he has been atrocious on the road with an 8.14 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts, none of which have ben quality outings. The Twins are 14-5 in their last 19 home games against left-handed starters. Minnesota counters with Fernando Romero who has quietly put together a start to the season. He has one bad start against the Royals and take that away, his ERA is 2.89 in his other eight starts, all of which he has allowed three runs or less. 10* (976) Minnesota Twins |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa -1.5 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the OTTAWA REDBLACKS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Ottawa was the lone team to have last week off and it should pay dividends in Week Two as it hosts Saskatchewan for the second time in as many home games. The last time the RedBlacks played a meaningful game was back on November 12 when they hosted Saskatchewan in the Divisional Semifinals and were upset by 11 points, cutting short their chances of defending their Grey Cup championship from 2016. Last year was a strange season for Ottawa as it clearly had the roster to contend for a championship but opened the campaign 0-4 and 1-7 before making a late run to get into the postseason and it can ill afford to repeat that start. We won with Saskatchewan last Friday as it defeated Toronto at home by jumping ahead 14-1 and was able to hold on. Zach Collaros, who was brought in from Hamilton, was effective in the victory but now comes his first road start and definitely not the spot that he would prefer. Ottawa finished in second place in the East Division after claiming the top spot in 2015 and 2016 so it can be considered the class of the division despite how weak the overall division looks. This is a chance to make some noise as a win on Thursday could give the RedBlacks an early spot atop of the division, as Toronto, Hamilton and Montreal all lost against West Division opponents last week. The difference here is that all of those games for the Eastern teams were on the road so the home team with motivation should put an end to that. 10* (362) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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06-21-18 | Red Sox -120 v. Twins | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. We lost with the Red Sox last night as David Price pitched a good game but was done in by two home runs that accounted for his three runs allowed. Boston has now dropped four of its last five games on this roadtrip and going back, the Red Sox are 12-2 in their last 14 games after losing the first two games of a series. Minnesota has been just the opposite as it has won four of its last five games in what has been a very disappointing season. The Twins are now two games over .500 at home following the first two wins in this series but they have gone 2-6 in their last eight games in Game three of a series. Rick Porcello takes the hill for the Red Sox and he is coming off an outing where he allowed four runs against Seattle which snapped a string of three straight quality outings. 10 of his 15 starts have been quality outings and in two starts at Target Field in the last two years, he has allowed two runs over 14 innings. Kyle Gibson has finally showed the potential of what he was expected of as he has posted a 3.27 ERA and 1.17 WHIP this season, but his success has been limited to being on the road. He has a 4.78 ERA and 1.49 WHIP at hone where he has just two quality starts and going back, the Twins are 3-7 in his last 10 home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (913) Boston Red Sox |
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06-20-18 | Red Sox -136 v. Twins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -136 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Minnesota was able to pull off the upset last night as they beat Chris Sale but in reality, it beat the Boston bullpen while getting another great performance from Jose Berrios. The pitching has been solid of late across the board, but this has the making of a breakout game from the Boston offense. The Red Sox fell to 5-3 on this current roadtrip and they still possess the second best road record in baseball behind the Astros. They are 16-8 this season following a loss and turn to David Price who has been on a great run. Since getting roughed up in Texas to open the month of May, he has posted a 2.64 ERA with five of those games being quality outings and six where he allowed two runs or less. Minnesota has not given him much resistance as he has a 2.52 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 17 games against the Twins which have lost six of their seven games against left-handed starters. Minnesota counters with Lance Lynn who looked like a bust early in the season, but he has turned things around. He had a 7.47 ERA and 2.04 WHIP through his first eight games, but he has put up five straight quality starts, while posting a 2.01 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in those outings. He now faces a Boston team hitting .268 against righties, which is the best in baseball and going back, the Red Sox are 41-14 in their last 55 games against right-handed starters. Despite the recent surge from Lynn, the Twins are 2-6 in his last eight starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (967) Boston Red Sox |
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06-19-18 | Wings v. Lynx -6.5 | Top | 83-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA LYNX for our WNBA Tuesday Terminator. It has been a tough start to the season for the reigning WNBA Champions as Minnesota is off to a 4-6 start, but a turnaround is inevitable. The Lynx are coming off a win over New York on Saturday as they won by 14 points as seven-point favorites and are now looking to win consecutive games for the first time in nearly a month. The Lynx have not opened this badly since a 2-9 start in 2010, the first season in Minnesota for head coach Cheryl Reeve, Lindsay Whalen and Rebekkah Brunson, and the year before Maya Moore arrived. We won with Dallas in its last game as it was able to pull away and cover against Las Vegas to move back over .500 for the season. The Wings are just 2-3 on the road with one of those wins coming at 1-10 Indiana and this is a matchup they have struggled with as they have lost nine straight meetings against Minnesota. Dallas was able to cover the first meeting this season however, it was getting 13 points, so the line tonight has been cut in half. Minnesota falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having lost five or six of their last seven games going up against an opponent after having won three of their last four games. This situation is 33-7 ATS (82.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (606) Minnesota Lynx |
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06-19-18 | Tigers +114 v. Reds | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Triple Play. The Tigers are riding a five-game winning streak heading into this two-game set in Cincinnati and they are just three games behind Cleveland in the American League Central. They have not been great on the road, but they have won four straight games on the highway and going back, the Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games following an off day. The Reds salvaged a game against Pittsburgh to close out a 3-2 roadtrip but they possess just 11 wins at home and while they are not favored by a huge amount, it is the third highest moneyline they have been favored by at home this season. They split the first two with the only win coming against Jason Vargas and his 7.39 ERA. Matthew Boyd is having a solid season with a 3.23 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 13 starts and while his numbers dip slightly on the road, four of six starts have come against teams .500 or better. He gets a good matchup here as Cincinnati is 17-40 in its last 57 games against left-handed starters. Sal Romano is coming off a rare quality start which came after a putrid five-game run where he posted a 10.72 ERA. He has not put up consecutive quality starts this season and in his other three games after a quality outing, he allowed 12 runs over 12 innings. The Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 10* (925) Detroit Tigers |
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06-18-18 | Mets -116 v. Rockies | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Mets took the final two games of their series against Arizona to split the four-game set and gain some momentum heading to Colorado. They came into Saturday on a 1-12 run where they scored a total of 21 runs and hit close to half of that over the last two games. Colorado closed its roadtrip with a pair of losses at Texas to drop to 23-18 on the road which is certainly a good record, but the Rockies have been surprisingly bad at home with an 11-19 record. They have struggled with the lightweight offense as they are 6-15 at home against National League teams with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Jacob deGrom has had a ton of bad luck this season as he has a 1.55 ERA and 1.01 WHIP but has just four wins to show for it. He opened the season with a 3.24 ERA through four starts but has dominated since with a 0.87 ERA over his last 11 outings. Tyler Anderson has been dependable for the Rockies all season with a 4.48 ERA in 14 starts and while he is coming off a pair of quality outings, both of those were on the road and at home, he has 5.14 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in five starts with the Rockies going 1-4 in those games. Going back, the Rockies are 4-13 in his last 17 starts following a quality outing in his last start. 10* (957) New York Mets |
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06-17-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals +112 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 112 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple play. We lost with the Cardinals last night as they allowed three runs in the eighth and ninth innings to drop their fourth straight game. The Cubs have scored 19 runs over the last two games after consecutive shutouts and they come in as favorites yet again despite a starting pitching disadvantage. Jose Quintana has been good, but far from the dominating pitcher many expected as he has a 4.09 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through 13 starts. While he has been better on the road, he has struggled during the day with a 5.79 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in seven games. Jack Flaherty has taken advantage of landing in the rotation because of the Alex Reyes injury as he has posted a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in eight starts. He has allowed three runs or less in seven of those and he is part of a successful situation where we play on National League teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 that are hitting .250 or worse with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 91-45 (66.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-17-18 | Sparks v. Sky +10.5 | Top | 81-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO SKY for our WNBA Sunday Terminator. Los Angeles possesses the best record in the WNBA based on percentages, so it is naturally a big road favorite in the game today against what is considered one of the worst teams in the league. The Sparks are coming off a road win over Washington on Friday to make it three straight wins, but they are overpriced based on a recent matchup. This play sets up very similar to the Indiana play from last night based on the revenge factor and the enormous line vale based on venue change. Chicago was getting 13.5 points on the road and a venue shift should make it roughly a six-point swing and that is not the case here as we are seeing just a 3.5-point swing based on the opening line which is the same as Saturday with the Fever. The Sky are 3-6 on the season and are coming off three straight double-digit losses which all came on the road and they have been much better at home where they sit at 2-2. They have been off since Tuesday and going back, the Sky are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on three or more days rest. Additionally, we play on underdogs that are getting outscored by their opponents by six or more ppg, after a combined score of 165 points or more. This situation is 46-15 ATS (75.4 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (316) Chicago Sky |
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06-16-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals +113 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. After getting shut out in Milwaukee in back-to-back games on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Cubs took their frustrations out on Michael Wacha who had his worst and shortest outing of the season. Chicago has turned its season around after a slow start and it will remain a public team to back, hence being favored on the road once again. St. Louis is now five games behind Milwaukee in the National League Central following its third consecutive loss. The Cardinals are three games over .500 at home still and despite the loss last night, they are 10-4 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning record. Carlos Martinez gets the ball tonight and he is having another strong season with a 2.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 10 starts. He is coming off a poor outing but that was on the road and he has been dealing at home with a 1.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in six starts. The Cardinals are 4-0 in his last four home starts against teams with a winning record. The Cubs counter with Kyle Hendricks who is off to a solid start and his home/road splits are similar which pouts him in a tough spot. He has a 4.50 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road with Chicago going 1-4 in his five road starts. On the season, St. Louis is 8-0 against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.15 or better. 10* (958) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-16-18 | Hamilton +8 v. Calgary | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TIGER-CATS for our CFL Game of the Week. There are a couple teams in the CFL that could make surprising runs and at the top of the list is Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats missed the playoffs last season after a 0-8 start, but they finished strong by going 6-4 over their last 10 games after June Jones was hired as head coach to take over for Kent Austin. Jones has had a full off-season and training camp to implement his system and culture and hire his preferred staff, like new defensive coordinator and former NFL head coach Jerry Glanville. The stage is set for Tiger-Cats quarterback Jeremiah Masoli to carry the team all the way to their first Grey Cup victory since 1999 but all of training camp Masoli has, once again, been forced to look over his shoulder and answer questions about depth charts instead of opponents. That of course is headlined by Johnny Manziel, but it gives Masoli added motivation to perform at a high level. Calgary will not be short of any motivation either after losing to Toronto last season for the Grey Cup. The Stampeders are the favorites yet again but of course with that comes overzealous expectations and inflated lines. This team is loaded and should be expected to win it all they face a tough opening challenge here based on what not to expect. During that 0-8 stretch last season, Hamilton lost here 60-1 and it surely has not forgotten. We have the same league-wide situation as the last two nights as we play on underdogs or pickems in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 29-5 ATS (85.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (375) Hamilton Tiger-Cats |
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06-16-18 | Dream v. Fever +5.5 | Top | 64-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANA FEVER for our WNBA Saturday Terminator. This is the second game of a home-and-home set between Atlanta and Indiana with the Dream taking the first meeting by five points on Thursday. It has been an awful start to the season for Indiana as it is the lone remaining team without a victory, sitting at a dreadful 0-10. If there is any consolation, the Fever have actually been playing competitively of late as over the last five games, two losses were in overtime while the other three were by 6, 3 and 5 points. We have value win the winless home team as well as Indiana was getting nine points on the road and a venue shift should make it roughly a six-point swing and that is not the case here as we are seeing just a 3.5-point swing based on the opening line. Atlanta is 6-4 on the season thanks to a 4-1 run over its last five games but this is not an ideal spot. After the non-cover in the first meeting two days ago, the Dream are now 1-9 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of .250 or worse while going 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games as road favorites between 3.5 and 6 points. 10* (310) Indiana Fever |
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06-15-18 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan +2.5 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 102 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. We won with the underdog Blue Bombers last night and we will be backing the underdog again tonight in a game with a lower pointspread but a higher chance of winning outright. Winnipeg was playing with revenge last night after getting bounced in the playoffs by Edmonton and tonight, Saskatchewan will be doing the same after losing to Toronto in the Divisional Finals. Toronto beat the Roughriders 25-21 on a last minute drive before going on to win the Grey Cup the following week against Calgary. The Argonauts won the Grey Cup despite posting a 9-9 record from the weak East Division and the victory over Calgary was fortunate. The game was played in snowy conditions and Toronto had two record touchdowns, a 100-yard passing score and a 109-yard fumble recovery for another touchdown which tied the game late. Saskatchewan has a quarterback battle between newcomer Zach Collaros, who was brought in from Hamilton, and Brandon Bridge, who took over for an ineffective Kevin Glenn in that game against Toronto and was effective enough to get a shot this season. Whichever quarterback it is will have one of the top receiving groups in the CFL in Duron Carter, Naaman Roosevelt and Bakari Grant. Toronto is the favorite because it is defending champions but there is no way a team from the east should be favored on the road against a team from the west. This has been a lucrative spot for the Roughriders as they are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games as home underdogs of three or fewer points. Additionally, we have the same league-wide situation as last night as we play on underdogs or pickems in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 28-5 ATS (84.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (374) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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06-15-18 | Tigers v. White Sox -123 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. We played against Chicago yesterday as it had won two straight against Cleveland and was bound for a loss in what has been a predictably bad season. The White Sox remain home where they have only 12 wins but that is due to a horrible start as they have gone 9-6 over their last 15 home games and they are playing .500 baseball overall for the past month. Going back, the White Sox are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. Detroit won the final two games at home against Minnesota to complete a 3-3 homestand. The Tigers have been somewhat of a surprise this season as they are just 4.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central but a lot of that is due to the averageness of the way Cleveland has been. Detroit is ties for the second most home wins in the American League however, its 10 road wins are the second fewest behind Baltimore. Chicago hands the ball to Reynaldo Lopez who has been really solid this season but has not gotten the respect because he is on a bad team. He has a 3.26 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 13 starts but he has only two wins to show for it because his offense has backed him up with only 2.85 rpg. The schedule has not aided him much as eight of his 13 starts have been on the road and he has been dominant at home with a 1.85 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in five starts. Chicago is 4-1 in his last five home starts against teams with a losing record while the Tigers are 19-44 in their last 63 road games against right-handed starters. Mike Fiers has been up and down this season and while he is coming off a quality start, he has an 8.59 ERA is his other three starts following a quality outing last game. 10* (918) Chicago White Sox |
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06-15-18 | Aces v. Wings -8.5 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS WINGS for our WNBA Friday Terminator. We had a play on Dallas on Tuesday and it was a brutal loss as the Wings were outscored by 11 points in the fourth quarter to end up losing by three points. That loss snapped a two-game winning streak and dropped the Wings back to .500 on the season and this is an important bounce back game. Dallas has a tough slate on tap as in its next four games, it has Los Angeles twice, Minnesota and Seattle to close out the month. After a 1-7 start to the season, Las Vegas has won two straight games including a 15-point win as a 10-point underdog at New York on Wednesday. Projected to be the worst team in the league, the Aces started that way, so we cannot take this recent two-game stretch too serious they have actually covered four straight games, so they have ben more than competitive of late, but this is a tough spot. This is their fourth game in six days, all of which have come on the road, and that makes it even more difficult. This is the final game of the current four-game roadtrip which could mean looking forward to heading back home. Dallas is 3-0 ATS this season following a loss and it falls into a great situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after two or more consecutive wins and possessing a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (306) Dallas Wings |
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06-14-18 | Red Sox v. Mariners +124 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Both Boston and Seattle are coming off three-game sweeps to open the week, but it is the Mariners that have a significant advantage. The Red Sox finished off the Orioles on the east coast and while it was a day game, it was a later than usual afternoon start, and the travel can take its toll heading to the west coast. Boston has been a great road team this season but the home/road splits with Seattle are very similar which makes the Red Sox overpriced at this number. The Mariners maintained their lead in the American League West and after underachieving for the last couple years, they are finally showing their potential. A big reason the Red Sox are road favorites is that David Price has been spot on of late, allowing three runs or less in six straight starts. However, five of those were against teams with a losing record and in 13 starts overall, only four have come against teams .500 or better and he has a 5.49 ERA. The Mariners are tied for fourth with Cleveland with a .269 average against left-handed pitching. Felix Hernandez counters for the Mariners and he has been average this season to say the least. Pitching at home has been a strength though as he has a 4.04 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in seven home starts compared to a 7.71 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in seven road starts. Here, we play on American League home underdogs that average between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40 going up against a starter with an ERA of 4.20 or better. This situation is 36-16 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (968) Seattle Mariners |
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06-14-18 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg +7.5 | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Many factors go into the CFL in the early stages of the season as rosters have been turned over and there is general optimism for all nine teams. That makes betting underdogs early in the season a lucrative endeavor and we will come right out of the gates with one of those. Winnipeg hosts Edmonton in a rematch of the Divisional Semifinals which saw the Eskimos win by a touchdown, so revenge is on the table right from the start. Things will be different for the Blue Bombers as both sides of the ball will have different looks. The defense gave up 50 offensive touchdowns in 2017, just one better than the two teams tied for last, Hamilton and Montreal. They tied for last in passing touchdowns allowed with 33 and they were second worst in yardage at nearly 400 per game. They made some big signing to shore that up. On offense starting quarterback Matt Nichols is out at least six weeks and 23-year-old rookie Chris Streveler will be making his first ever start. Not ideal of course but the good news is that the Bombers have the best running back in the league in Andrew Harris who can take some of the pressure off Streveler. The Eskimos are one of the frontrunners for the Grey Cup and the added motivation is that it is being held in Edmonton this season. Still, laying a number like this on the road is rather overaggressive and we can take advantage of the underdog. Plain and simple, we play on underdogs or pickems in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (372) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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06-13-18 | Twins v. Tigers +145 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 145 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Triple Play. Minnesota won the opener of this series last night to leapfrog Detroit in the American League Central to take over sole possession of second place. The fact the Twins are just a half-game better than the Tigers and that they have only 12 road wins makes this line overinflated as it seems to be based on names of starting pitching and not necessarily results. The loss of Miguel Cabrera is not as big as it seems with his three home runs and 22 RBIs on the season. Jose Berrios gets the ball for Minnesota and he is the reason behind this line and while he has been solid, he has not been overly dominating, especially on the road where he has a 4.55 and has just two quality outings in five starts. The Twins are 3-13 in his last 16 road starts. Matthew Boyd has been quietly superb this season as he has a 3.20 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 12 starts including a 2.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six home starts. He has won all five games as a home underdog and he falls into a successful situation where we play on American League home underdogs with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season- going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better on the season. This situation is 70-43 (61.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (920) Detroit Tigers |
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06-13-18 | Mystics +10 v. Sun | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON MYSTICS for our WNBA Wednesday Terminator. Connecticut is off to a solid 7-1 start to the season, but it has benefitted from a fairly easy schedule as of those eight games, only three have come against winning teams and one of those is responsible for the lone defeat. The Sun have won two straight games following that loss to Atlanta and they embark on a five-game roadtrip starting Friday on the west coast. The Sun are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. Washington has lost three straight games and four of its last five after a 4-0 start to the season. The Mystics have recently dealt with injuries as Natasha Cloud missed three games with kidney stones while Elena Delle Donne missed four games because of an illness related to her Lyme Disease. Both have returned to action and even better is the fact there have been five days to rest since their last game. The Mystics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games while going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after three or more consecutive losses which also puts them into a successful league-wide situation. We play on road teams after three or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 47-18 ATS (72.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (609) Washington Mystics |
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06-12-18 | Mercury v. Wings +1 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS WINGS for our Tuesday WNBA Terminator. Dallas heads back home in a great scheduling spot as it looks for some revenge from a loss in Phoenix in the season opener. The Wings defeated Indiana on the road on Friday to move to 4-3 overall and this marks only the third home game of the season. They are 2-0 in their first two games in Dallas which includes an impressive win against Seattle. The last game was a big one even though it was against one of the worst teams in the WNBA as it was a fight to get this victory because Indiana led for a large majority of the game except for the final minute of the fourth quarter. Phoenix has been a busy team this month as this is its sixth game in 12 days and it has been impressive in winning each of the first five games in June. The Mercury are a solid 4-1 on the road but this is not an ideal spot with fatigue setting in and the lookahead possibility as after Dallas, they are off until hosting league-leading Connecticut on Saturday followed by a game Sunday at Las Vegas. The Mercury are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against team with a winning straight up record while the Wings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (604) Dallas Wings |
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06-12-18 | Giants -118 v. Marlins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Miami won the battle of left-handers last night as it was able to solve Madison Bumgarner but now in a righty vs. righty matchup, the Giants have the advantage. San Francisco dropped back to .500 on the season and while it has struggled on the road, it has had only one road series against a losing team prior to this one. Miami has had a rough time of it as expected and despite the win last night, it is just 3-8 in its last 11 games following a win. Chris Stratton has been dependable for the Giants as a couple bad starts has inflated his numbers. He has allowed three runs or less in four straight games with the Giants winning all of those. San Francisco is 10-3 in his 13 starts and going back it is 11-4 against the moneyline against National League teams team with an on base percentage .325 or worse. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 2-10 in their last 12 games against right-handed starter. Trevor Richards counters for Miami with a 5.02 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in six starts. He looked good in his last stat after being recalled but he now faces a Giants team that is 8-0 in its last 8 games against right-handed starters. 10* (953) San Francisco Giants |
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06-11-18 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -143 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Arizona is coming off a three-game sweep in Colorado to maintain its 2.5-game lead in the National League West. The Diamondbacks are also riding a three-game home winning streak where they are 19-13 on the season. Going back, they are 5-0 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. The Pirates have opened 1-2 on this current six-game roadtrip and it has been a real struggle going back further as Pittsburgh is 6-16 over its last 22 games. During this stretch, the Pirates have failed to win consecutive games. They send Joe Musgrove to the hill and he has been a pleasant addition to the rotation as he has a 1.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his first three starts, allowing three runs or less in all three of those including a pair of quality outings. However, all of those were at home and this is his first road start since July of last season. Arizona sends Patrick Corbin to the hill and he is off to a spectacular start. He has a 2.87 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 13 starts while his home/road splits are relatively equal. The big thing at home is his 62:8 K:BB ratio which is outstanding and has to a 0.78 WHIP at home. Going back, the Pirates are 5-16 in their last 21 road games against left-handed starters. 10* (908) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our Friday NBA Star Attraction. When the buzzer sounded on Wednesday, it was a sign that this series is all but over. Golden St. took a commanding 3-0 lead in this series and if not for a replay overturn and a mammoth Kevin Durant three-pointer, the Cavaliers could actually be leading this series. Instead, they will try to go out with some dignity although that will be tougher than it sounds as the Warriors are by far the superior team. Last season, they were in this same position with a 3-0 lead and Cleveland ended up winning Game Four in what amounted to a "Gentleman's Sweep" but things are a lot different this season. Cleveland does not have Kyrie Irving, who scored 40 points, and the roster is one that is not capable of keeping up for an entire series with the Warriors. Golden St. pulled away late in Game Three to preserve the win and cover and this was with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson going a combined 7-27 from the floor and scoring just 21 points. The rest of the team shot 64.8 percent from the floor. This is one of those games that the whole team comes in clicking which spells bad news for a deflated Cleveland team. The Cavaliers are just 5-19 ATS in their last 24 games coming off a home loss and this spot could be the worst of the bunch. 10* (507) Golden St. Warriors |
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06-08-18 | Yankees v. Mets +103 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Mets are in an offensive funk as they have scored seven runs total during their current six-game losing streak including a mere two runs over their last four games. Three of those games came against lefties where they totaled just two runs so facing a struggling right-hander is just what they need. The Yankees are percentage points ahead of the Red Sox in the American League East thanks to a 5-1 start to this current roadtrip and the public is all over them tonight at this short price. Masahiro Tanaka has had a rough stretch, posting a 5.40 ERA over his last five starts but the Yankees won four of those thanks to the offense that bailed him out. That will be tough to repeat tonight against Jacob deGrom who has been nasty all season with a 1.49 ERA, which leads the National League. Over his last eight starts, he has a ridiculous 0.57 ERA and the Mets are 20-7 in his last 27 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The Mets fall into a great contrarian situation as we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after allowing three runs or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring one run or less three straight games. This situation is 33-12 (73.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (980) New York Mets |
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06-08-18 | Dream v. Aces +5.5 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
**3:00 PM ET Start** This is a play on the LAS VEGAS ACES for our WNBA Terminator. Las Vegas picked up its first franchise win a week ago as it defeated Washington at home. That was just the second home game for the Aces and the first one was a solid effort against Seattle where they lost by seven points against an excellent Storm team. They are coming off a loss against Chicago on the road and while they are just 1-5 to start the season and not much is expected, it is hard to ignore the fact they have played the toughest schedule in the league thus far. Atlanta meanwhile is coming off a home upset over Connecticut to even its record at 3-3. That was its fourth straight home game, so this is the first time it has traveled since May 23rd. The .500 record is respectable, but the Dream have been unable to capitalize on their victories as they are 2-0 straight up and against the number following a win and going back, they are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win. This line will prove to be too much for Atlanta to cover. 10* (306) Las Vegas Aces |
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06-07-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -139 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. It is do or die for the Golden Knights as they have to win three straight games to complete their miraculous inaugural season. It starts tonight on home ice where Vegas is 7-2 during the postseason and while one of those losses was against Washington, it was a game it could have taken. It outshot the Capitals 39-26 including 15-6 in the third period where it was unable to take advantage of two power play opportunities. Despite that defeat, the Golden Knights are 16-2 in their last 18 home games against teams with a winning road record. It has been an impressive run for Washington after losing the opener as the defense has led the charge, but it would not be surprising if the stop unit takes a step back tonight as Vegas will be going full throttle on offense. The Capitals offense put on a strong display on Monday, but they have not responded well of late as they are 3-8 in their last 11 games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game including a 1-3 record in the postseason. Vegas falls into a phenomenal situation where we play against road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the moneyline coming off two or more consecutive home wins going up against an opponent off a road loss by three goals or more. This situation is 42-5 (89.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (10) Vegas Golden Knights |
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06-07-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -144 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Toronto looks to bounce back from a two-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees as the offense managed only two total runs. May was horrible for the Blue Jays and June has not started any better as they are 1-4 in June and now sit a whopping 16.5 games behind the Red Sox in the American League East. Baltimore took two games from the Mets as it won those games thanks to solid pitching, 2-1 and 1-0. That has not typically been the case this season as the Orioles have the fifth worst ERA in baseball. Baltimore is the only team in baseball that has yet to register double-digit wins on the road while its 23 losses are the most in MLB. Jaime Garcia has had a rough time of it in his first year in Toronto and it could easily be his last at this point. He has struggled on the road for the most part as his 3.43 ERA at home is solid where Toronto has won three of his four starts. David Hess has been pitching well since entering the rotation as three of four starts have been quality outings, but he is still unproven. Toronto has a great contrarian situation on its side as we play on American League home favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher that have an OBP of .320 or worse and starting a pitcher with a 7.50 ERA or worse over his last three starts going up against a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or better. This situation is 53-15 (77.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (912) Toronto Blue Jays |
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06-07-18 | Sun v. Liberty +7 | Top | 88-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK LIBERTY fir our WNBA Terminator. Both Connecticut and New York are coming off losses on Tuesday, so both will be on the rebound trail tonight. The Liberty should have the edge as they remain home after dropping their game against Phoenix that was decided late. New York did not get the typical home calls as it was outshot 19-5 at the free throw line, while getting outscored by 14 points from the charity stripe. The Liberty dominated the glass 39-21 and they will need a big effort on the boards against one of the best rebounding teams in the league. Connecticut lost at Atlanta on Tuesday as a significant favorite and it is favored by nearly the same amount against a team that is much better than the Dream. The Sun rolled in their first five games but three of those came against three of the worst teams in the WNBA while the other road win came against Washington which at the time was decimated with injuries and ailments. Fatigue is an issue as well as this is the fourth straight road game for Connecticut and it is the fourth in seven days with a possible lookahead to get back home where it squares off against Minnesota on Saturday. 10* (606) New York Liberty |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. It can be argued that this series should be tied at 1-1 right now but the Cavaliers are in a hole as was expected coming in. A win here is a must, or this series is definitely over and despite the must win scenario, Cleveland has value on its side in Game Three. The Cavaliers have won their last eight home playoff games after suffering a loss against Indiana in their first game. This is a role they have been much more effective in as they are winning at just a 33 percent clip against the number when favored but they are 17-11-1 ATS as underdogs on the season. The pressure is off Golden St. and that can bring complacency even for a team of its caliber. When the Warriors play to their potential, they are pretty much unbeatable, but the problem is that they do not play to their potential on the road all the time. They are 4-4 on the highway during the postseason with three of those losses coming by double-digits. Additionally, the Warriors are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Cleveland falls into a successful situation where we play on home underdogs after a game where they failed to cover the spread playing just their third game or less in 10 days. This situation is 106-65 ATS (62 percent) since 1996. 10* (506) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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06-06-18 | A's -113 v. Rangers | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. We were on Oakland last night and it blew a 4-2 lead as it allowed five ruins in the seventh and eighth innings with the bullpen ruining a solid outing from Sean Manaea. That was just the fourth loss in its last 17 games against teams with a losing record, but the A's get back on track tonight in a big pitching mismatch in their favor. They are 7-0 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Texas opened its homestand with a rare win as it is just 12-19 at home which is the sixth worst home record in baseball. Winning streak have been few and far between as the Rangers are 7-20 in their last 27 games following a win. Daniel Mengden gets the ball for the A's and he has been great this season with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 12 starts. He has tossed five straight quality outings, posting a 1.47 ERA over that stretch. He was recalled late last season and he has a 2.47 ERA in 17 starts. The A's are 7-1 in his last seven starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Bartolo Colon got off to a great start with a 1.45 ERA through his first four games, but he has been very inconsistent since then, posting a 5.29 ERA over his last eight starts. He has allowed six runs in two of his last three starts and Oakland is 7-1 in its last eight road games against right-handed starters. 10* (967) Oakland A's |
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06-05-18 | Braves -123 v. Padres | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. San Diego took the opener of this series last night to make it three straight wins for the second time in a week. The Padres have been on a decent run since a horrible start but are still six games under .500 and they are 5-16 as a home underdog this season. Despite the loss, Atlanta is still in first place in the National League East, one game ahead of Washington. The Braves are 19-13 on the road and have won seven of their last nine road games against losing teams. Sean Newcomb has quietly put together a great season with a 2.73 ERA through 11 starts and that ERA is ninth best in the National League. Meanwhile, his road ERA of 2.06 is ranked seventh among qualified starters. Jordan Lyles has been inconsistent through five starts since entering the rotation in May but to his credit, he has been great at home with three quality starts but that actually helps put Atlanta into a strong situation as we play on National League favorites of -110 or higher that are hitting between .255 and .269) and starting a pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or better going up against a pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better. This situation is 94-31 (75.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (909) Atlanta Braves |
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06-04-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals -125 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Monday Breakaway. We were on the Capitals on Saturday and will back them again tonight as the public will be, and already is, all over Vegas. As of Monday morning, according to offshore reports, 60 percent of the betting tickets are on the Golden Knights, but 57 percent of the money is on Washington meaning the big bets or smart money is coming in on the Capitals. You cannot ignore the fact that the depth of Washington is playing aa big difference in this series thus far. All three lines for Washington has been playing at a high level while it has only been the top line that has stood out for the Golden Knights. Coming into the series, it was the opposite that was expected but the Capitals have turned the tables. Additionally, the defense has been great as the Capitals are clogging the middle of the ice and making even the fastest of opponents look slow. There is an interesting stat that is floating around for this game based on the Vegas consecutive losses. Over the last 22 Stanley Cup Playoff games where a team has dropped two straight, that team is 18-4 over the last 22 occurrences. That may sound dominating but only on home ice as home teams are 16-2 while road teams are just 2-2. The Capitals are now 21-8 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (8) Washington Capitals |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors -11 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Game of the Week. The Cavaliers had their chance and blew it on Thursday as they let the possibly only opportunity to win a game in this series slip away. That could have put some doubt into the heads of the Warriors but if anything, it now gives them renewed confidence and motivation. Golden St. never covered the number throughout the game, but it is not like it played a bad game. It outshot Cleveland 51.1 percent to 44.4 percent, outshot the Cavaliers from long range and had only seven turnovers compared to the Cavaliers 11 miscues. The difference was rebounding as Cleveland won the rebounding battle 53-38 including 19-4 on the offensive glass. That prevented second chance opportunities on offense for the Warriors and also limited what they could do in transition even though they still racked up 28 fast break points. While Golden St. knows it got away with one, the Cavaliers mental state could be their demise here as the looks on some of the players after Game One was telling. Klay Thompson is questionable which takes away one of their better defenders, but it is the offense that can take this one over as Kevin Durant had a poor game and many questioned his effort. We can expect a big game from him and stop resorting to isolations. Golden St. falls into a great situation as we play against underdogs coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 53-15 (77.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (504) Golden St. Warriors |
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06-03-18 | Lynx +4.5 v. Sparks | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA LYNX for our WNBA Sunday Terminator. It has been a rough start to the season for Minnesota as it is 2-4 through its first six games and to put that into perspective, it took the Lynx 25 games last season to lose their fourth game. They have failed to cover any of these six games as the championship hangover looks to be in full effect. Playing Los Angeles for a second time after losing the first meeting should have them focused here. The Sparks are coming off a win over Phoenix in their last game which was a full week ago and that is a disadvantage with so much time off. They were fortunate to catch the Mercury in a bad shooting night from long range but count on that here from Minnesota. The Lynx are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 75 or more points in three straight games and Minnesota falls into a simple yet highly profitable WNBA situation as we play on road underdogs after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (315) Minnesota Lynx |
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06-03-18 | Indians -110 v. Twins | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Cleveland had a six-game winning streak snapped on Friday and lost its second straight game yesterday and leads the Tigers by just two games in the American League Central. Minnesota was on a 1-7 run prior to Friday and it is in a tough spot today. Mike Clevinger bounced back from a poor start against Houston and he hits the road where he has been sensational this season with a 1.61 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four starts, three of which have been quality outings. Kyle Gibson is showing flashes from his 2015 season as he has regressed badly the last two seasons. What ha not changed are his struggles at home where he has a 5.76 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in five starts and now he catches Cleveland at the wrong time. 10* (919) Cleveland Indians |
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06-02-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals -125 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a paly on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. We won with Washington on Wednesday as it stole home ice away from Vegas and we will back the Capitals once again tonight as they look to seize control of this series. The Capitals are 32-14-4 at home and are back in Washington for the first time since May 21and on the season, the Capitals are 15-3 following three or more consecutive road games. Additionally, they are 20-8 in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning road record. Vegas is certainly the feel good story of the season and while it has a massive home ice advantage, it is not nearly as strong on the road. A big part of that is the offense that averages close to a goal less per game on the highway and the confidence of Capitals goalie Braden Holtby is sky high right now after his performance in Game Two. He has continued his career-long playoff success this spring, going 13-7 with a 2.19 GAA and .921 save percentage. Over his NHL career, Holtby has a 2.04 GAA and .929 save percentage in the Stanley Cup playoffs. To put that in perspective, those numbers are fourth- and second-best respectively all-time among goalies with at least 50 games of experience. 10* (6) Washington Capitals |
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06-01-18 | Brewers -129 v. White Sox | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Milwaukee won on Wednesday against the Cardinals to win the three-game series and close out an 8-2 homestand. The Brewers possess the best record in the National League with much of that having to do with their 18-10 record on the road and they have dominate the poor teams, going 13-3 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Chicago ended a 1-5 roadtrip by getting swept in Cleveland and a return home is not necessarily a good thing as the White Sox are 8-18 at home which is the worst record in MLB. Additionally, they are 0-9 in their last nine home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Chase Anderson looks to keep the run going and he has been average of late which is not a bad thing as it is keeping this line lower than it should be. He has allowed four runs or more in three of his last four starts but two of those were at home and he has been great on the road with a 2.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in four starts, three of which were quality outings. Hector Santiago gets the ball for Chicago and he has struggled with a 4.87 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in five starts and 10 relief appearances. This has been ongoing as over the last three years, he has a 5.42 ERA over 41 games. 10* (929) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-31-18 | Aces +12 v. Storm | Top | 74-101 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the LAS VEGAS ACES for our WNBA Thursday Terminator. Not much has changed since this franchise moved from San Antonio to Las Vegas as the Stars were 8-26 last season and now the Aces are off to a 0-3 start. They were scorched in their first game of the season at Connecticut but have played well over the last tow as they lost by just five in Washington and then lost in their first ever home game by seven points against Seattle. After losing its season opener against Phoenix, the Storm have won four straight games and are showing why they are a team on the rise. They have failed to cover all three home games and are now being asked to cover the biggest pointspread they have been favored by since August of 2012. Going back to last season, while the Aces have been losing, they have been more than competitive on the road, going 12-6 ATS over their last 18 road games. They also fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on road underdogs after three or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after one or more consecutive wins. This situation is 42-14 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (611) Las Vegas Aces |
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05-30-18 | Capitals +135 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 135 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. Washington dropped the opener of the Stanley Cup Finals on Monday as it looks to tie the series tonight and grab the home ice advantage. The Capitals have been one of the best road teams leading up to and in the postseason as it went into Game One on a 15-3 run on the highway. They were on their way with a 4-3 lead in the third period but allowed three goals as Washington was outshot in the opener for just the second time in its last eight games. Goalie Braden Holtby has been solid and is coming off his worst game in the playoffs, so we can expect a rebound tonight. He allowed five goals on 33 shots, the most goals he has allowed in 30 games since Feb. 17. Vegas is three wins away from an improbable championship and it was fortunate that Holtby had the bad game when he did as Marc-Andre Fleury allowed four goals and before Game One, during the regular season and playoffs, he had allowed four goals eight times. All losses. Washington can get to him again. Here, we play against home teams in the second half of the season when the moneyline is -100 to -150 that are averaging 2.85 or more gpg, after a game where both teams scored four goals or more. This situation is 101-61 (62.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (3) Washington Capitals |
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05-30-18 | Cubs v. Pirates +117 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 117 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Cubs have won the first two games of this series as they go for the three-game sweep tonight as road favorites for the second straight night. Chicago is playing better after a slow start to the season but are not in a good position tonight. The Pirates have been going the other way as they have lost four straight games and nine of their last 11 to fall six games behind the Brewers in the National League Central. Joe Musgrove will be making his second start of the season after a spectacular opening start where he allowed no runs on five hits and no walks in seven innings against the Cardinals. The Cubs hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks who is also coming off a solid effort last time out at home against the Giants. He has struggled on the road with a 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in four starts with Chicago losing three of those. The Cubs are 1-5 in his last six starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (906) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-29-18 | Cardinals +103 v. Brewers | Top | 6-1 | Win | 103 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee took the opener of this series yesterday to make it four straight wins, but we expect the Cardinals to bounce back tonight and even up the series. The Brewers remain 4.5 games ahead of the Cubs in the National League Central and increased their lead to five games over the Cardinals. St. Louis is now 2-2 on this current roadtrip and it is still a game over .500 on the road for the season. The starting pitching has been leading the way and while the offense has surprisingly struggled, the Cardinals are in a good spot tonight to break out. Zach Davies gets the ball for Milwaukee and he has been very average. He has a 4.74 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in seven starts and while his numbers are slightly better at home, the Brewers are just 1-3 in his four home games as they are giving him only 2.0 rpg of support. He has faced St. Louis four times since last season and has posted a 6.86 ERA. The Cardinals counter with Michael Wacha and since allowing four runs in 4.2 innings in his season opening start, he has allowed three runs or less in his last nine starts. He has posted three straight quality starts and since that opener, he has a 2.44 ERA in those nine games. St. Louis has won his last four starts against winning teams and it is 14-3 in his last 17 starts during the second game of the series. 10* (955) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 87-79 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. The Celtics once again stumbled on the road as it had a chance to close out this series but was unable to despite outshooting the Cavaliers 51.4 percent to 47.1 percent and getting the fortunes of a missing Kevin Love. They head back home where they are a perfect 10-0 this postseason both straight up and against the number and that is something we would typically fade but the public money is shading the side of Cleveland which is a bit surprising based on what we have seen. Love only played five minutes of Game Six and did not score so what LeBron James did was even more spectacular but repeating that on the road with no supporting cast will be a huge challenge. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Terry Rozier may only have six years of NBA experience among them, but in a seven-game first-round win over Milwaukee, in a five-game second-round win over Philadelphia, and in these first six games against Cleveland, they have shown they can handle the pressure James has won five straight Game Sevens, but his teams have never been as depleted as they are this season. While Boston was unable to avenge its first double-digit loss in this series, it is still 12-1 ATS this season revenging a loss of 10 points or more while going 15-3 ATS revenging a road loss of any kind. 10* (712) Boston Celtics |
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05-27-18 | Angels v. Yankees -150 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Typically, we avoid public plays like this and the Yankees are going to be a very public play today, but the situation and setup are ideal while we are getting a very reasonable moneyline price to back it up. The Yankees got crushed yesterday 11-4 to make it three losses in their last four games and they now trail the Red Sox by two games in the American League East. They have been dominant at home this season and going back they are 39-12 in their last 51 home games. The Angels have cooled off after a hot start as they are now 4.5 games behind the Astros in the American League West. They will face Masahiro Tanaka who has pitched better than what his 4.95 ERA indicates as he has a 1.10 WHIP through 10 starts. The Angels are 0-5 in their last five games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15 while the Yankees are 7-0 in his last seven starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Additionally, Tanaka has a 1.60 ERA in five career starts against the Angels, all quality outings. Garrett Richards is having a solid season as well, but he squares off against a nemesis as he is 0-4 with an 8.10 ERA in six games against the Yankees. New York falls into a great value situation where we play on American League favorites with a moneyline of -125 to -175 that are averaging 5.1 or more rpg and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better. This situation is 36-9 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (964) New York Yankees |
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05-26-18 | Wings v. Dream -3.5 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA DREAM for our WNBA Saturday Terminator. Atlanta is a team that is a sneaky under the radar unit that can make some noise this season. The Dream went just 12-22 last season despite an 8-7 start as the defense fell apart at the end of the season but there is good reason to think a playoff run is imminent. Atlanta is off to a 1-1 start and possesses one of the best unknown rosters in the WNBA. There were four teams that had three players make the 2017 All-Star teams - Minnesota (who went on to the championship), Los Angeles (runner-up), Connecticut (playoff team, 21 wins) and Atlanta. And this does not include six-time All-WNBA selection Angel McCoughtry who sat out last season. Additionally, the Dream signed Renee Montgomery and Jessica Breland. Dallas is off to a 1-2 start, the lone win coming at home and the two losses coming on the road. as they remain on the road, this is a tough spot for the Wings tonight. This is the home opener for Atlanta after splitting the first two games on the road. The Dream were the only ono-playoff team from last season to post a winning record at home as the highway was their downfall where they went 3-14. On top of the home opener, they will be out to seek some same season revenge after losing their season opener in Dallas by 23 points. 10* (320) Atlanta Dream |
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05-26-18 | Mets v. Brewers -141 | Top | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee is playing some of the best baseball in the league as it has won 16 of its last 23 games including a win last night over Noah Syndergaard. The Brewers kept their three-game lead over the Pirates in the National League Central intact with the victory while improving their record to 4-1 on the current homestand. Going back, the Brewers have won 11 of their last 15 home games. The Mets have dropped three of their last four games but remain just three games behind the Braves in the National League East. It has been a struggle since their 11-1 start and those struggles have mostly been on offense as the starting pitching remains strong. That is not the case today however as New York trots out Jason Vargas for his fifth start of the season. He is coming off his best outing of the season where he allowed no runs on two hits in five innings against the Marlins. It was bad prior to that however as he posted a 13.86 ERA in his first three starts so he is lucky to even still have a job. Chase Anderson counters for the Brewers who has been solid this season with a 3.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through nine starts. He is coming off a quality outing in his last starts and going back, the Brewers are 6-0 in his last six starts following a quality performance in his last start. Meanwhile, the Mets are 10-24 in their last 34 games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 9* (904) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-25-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 99-109 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. The season is on the line tonight for Cleveland and while the home team has dominated this series through the first five games, we are expecting the first close game of this series to finally take place tonight. Four of the five games have been decided by double-digits, all by at least nine points and the average deficit has been 18 ppg. For the Cavaliers, it has been LeBron James carrying the load, but the workload looks like it is starting to catch up. In the playoffs, James is averaging 40.6 minutes per game and has played more total minutes than anyone in the postseason and he was clearly fatigued in Game Five. He played down concerns of fatigue after the game, but his numbers have dropped off as the games go on so far in the conference finals. No one else has shown the ability to step up for Cleveland and at this point in the series, laying a large number like this is too much as we are getting the better team that is overdue for a strong performance on the road. Despite shooting only 36 percent, the Celtics improved to 10-0 at home in the playoffs as coach Brad Stevens changed his starting lineup, shortened his rotation to seven players and released waves of defenders at James and it obviously worked and now it is up to Boston to get it done away from home. The Cavaliers are 6-18 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season while going 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 85 points or less. 10* (709) Boston Celtics |
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05-25-18 | Lynx v. Liberty +4.5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK LIBERTY for our WNBA Friday Terminator. We lost with the Liberty in their season opener as they lost as road favorites in Chicago but now in their second game, they come in as home underdogs. Granted, the class of opposition is on opposite ends of the league, but it is a dynamic we can take advantage of, especially with a team like New York that has the talent to compete for a championship. We mentioned on Sunday that the Liberty will be a highly motivated bunch this season but came out flat against the Sky. In each of the past two years with the new playoff format, the Liberty have finished as the No. 3 seed behind Minnesota and Los Angeles, giving New York an opening round bye. However, the Liberty have lost in the single-elimination second round both years. Making the early exit from last season even tougher is the fact they closed the regular season with 10 consecutive victories. Minnesota opened with a loss against revenge-minded Los Angeles but bounced back three nights later with a win over Dallas. The Lynx hit the road for the first time this season and while they have been a solid road team over the years, they are not nearly as strong as they are at home. This core group is just 26-25 ATS as road favorites over the last three years with most of those games coming against teams not nearly as good as New York is. 10* (316) New York Liberty |
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05-25-18 | Cardinals v. Pirates -121 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Pirates head back home following a 1-2 series in Cincinnati and they remain three games behind Milwaukee in the National League Central. The road has been a struggle for Pittsburgh as it is a game under .500 but the Pirates have won 10 of their last 14 home games. St. Louis also lost two of three in its most recent series at home against the Royals and it is also three games out of first place in the division. The Cardinals have been decent on the road, but they are 1-5 in their last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Pirates will get their first look at the five-man rotation they envisioned entering Spring Training. Though Joe Musgrove spent most of last season in the Astros bullpen, Pittsburgh viewed him as a starter from the moment he joined the organization. He landed on the disabled list with a right shoulder strain and in four rehab starts, he showed why he is a former top-100 prospect. He allowed just 17 hits, a home run, walked a pair, and struck out 17 in 17.2 innings. He will be on no pitch count restriction. The Cardinals turn to John Gant who has made two starts and both have been average. He started the season in the bullpen and in three relief appearances, he posted a 2.35 ERA but in the two starts, he has a 6.52 ERA and both of those were at home, so this marks his first road start of the season. 10* (954) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +1 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Thursday Star Attraction. In the first close game of this series, after falling behind by double digits in both the first and third quarters, the Rockets came back both times and eventually pulled out the close victory to regain home court advantage in the Western Conference Finals. It took 5:18 for the Rockets to score their first points of the game, but then outscored the Warriors 53-34, including 38 points from Chris Paul and James Harden and that shows how dangerous this team is and one that can neutralize Golden St. While the pressure may have now shifted to the Houston side as being down 3-2 in this series and going back to Golden St. is a death sentence, the Rockets are still playing with house money which helps to play looser. It can be argued that the pressure still resides in Golden St. as it finds itself in a situation it has never been in since acquiring Kevin Durant. Before this series, the Warriors had gone a combined 24-3 in the playoffs while never losing more than one game in any of the six series. The confidence in Houston is at an all time high as it looked as though it was over after a 41-point loss and then falling behind 12-0 in Game Four, but they refused to give up and have the edge heading back home where the Rockets are 40-9 on the season. 10* (508) Houston Rockets |
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05-24-18 | Sparks v. Sun +2.5 | Top | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CONNECTICUT SUN for our WNBA Thursday Terminator. Expectations are high in Connecticut and the Sun came out strong in their season opener. Last season was a strong finish as they went 20-8 following a 1-5 start to finish with 21 wins and a playoff berth for the first time since 2012. Connecticut lost to Phoenix in the postseason but knew it had a good thing going and came out focused on Sunday as it rolled over Las Vegas by 36 points. What made last season even more special was that the Sun lost Chiney Ogwumike for the season with a torn Achilles but is back and the All-Star forward is ready to go. Los Angeles opened its season with an upset win at Minnesota which was a revenge victory after losing the WNBA Finals last season and the Lynx were clearly in a letdown during the ceremony night. The Sparks followed that up with a win at Indiana, arguably the worst team in the league, by 17 points but it will be challenged tonight. They will again be without Candice Parker who is nursing a back injury and her absence will be felt in this matchup. Connecticut falls into a great contrarian situation where we play against road favorites that averaged 75 or more ppg last season, after a win by 10 points or more. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (314) Connecticut Sun |
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05-24-18 | Astros v. Indians +121 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. This is the first game of a four-game series between Cleveland and Houston that features four incredible pitching matchups. The Astros took two of three at home against the Indians last weekend and followed that up with a two-game sweep of the Giants to start this week. Houston is 32-18, has a two-game lead over Seattle in the American League West and comes in as a road favorite which is fair considering its solid road record. Cleveland is also coming off a two-game sweep over the Cubs and is now back over .500 for the season. The Indians have struggled on the road despite the two wins in Chicago but are 13-9 at home and this has been a great situation going back as the Indians are 10-4 in their last 14 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. This is a rematch of the series opener last weekend as Mike Clevinger tossed a quality start but was outdueled by Charlie Morton. Clevinger has a 2.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in nine starts with six of those being quality outings including four in a row. He has allowed more than three runs only twice and going back, the Indians are 11-2 in his last 13 starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Morton has been even better as his career resurgence continues and he too is a reason the Astros are the road chalk here. He has made only two starts on the road with the last coming in Arizona which has scored two runs or less in 11 of its last 13 games. 10* (912) Cleveland Indians |
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05-23-18 | Cavs -1 v. Celtics | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. The Rockets snapped the Warriors 16-game home playoff winning streak last night so can the Cavaliers do the same to the Celtics nine-game home playoff run? The short answer is yes. While the home teams have dominated this series thus far, we are in store for a closer game after the first four games being decided by 19.3 ppg which means a strong chance for a road team to break through. Much has been said about the Cavaliers defense and how it is a liability and while there is no denying that, Cleveland needs its offense to play better in Boston. According to NBA Advanced Stats, the Cavaliers offense improved by a staggering 20.5 points per 100 possessions between Games One-Two and Games Three-Four and as a team, Cleveland shot 19.3 percentage points better from beyond the arc in its two series wins than in its two losses. The defense improved as well over the last two games, but it is the offense that needs to carry this team. The momentum is clearly with Cleveland now and it has the upper hand as Boston is a team that has thrived on youth this postseason and now suddenly looks disoriented without a go-to player and opposite a more veteran squad that has found a new attitude led by LeBron James. We mentioned yesterday that the pressure was on Golden St. despite being up 2-1 in its series and the pressure is now back on the Celtics here despite being back on their home floor. Being such a young and inexperienced team, that pressure will get to them tonight. 10* (707) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-23-18 | Capitals v. Lightning -140 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. The Capitals kept their season alive for at least one more game with a 3-0 shutout victory on Monday as they put an end to the Tampa Bay three-game winning streak. Washington now has to take care of business on the road where it has been great this postseason with a 7-2 record, but we expect the challenge to be too much tonight. Washington goalie Braden Holtby is coming off his best effort of the series, allowing no goals on 24 shots but now the pressure is really on. He is 2-4 in Game 7s in his career and while he has not been a liability in most of those losses, he also has not exerted his will on a game like he did in Game Six. Tampa Bay was shut out for just the second time this season and we could see an offensive show tonight with a lot of that based on one player. After blazing through the start of the playoffs with five goals in his first five games, Nikita Kucherov has scored just once in the Lightning's last seven games. He needs to get his confidence back and we think that happens here. Between the pipes is Andrei Vasilevskiy who has had a solid run in this series as he has seen as least 30 shots in all six games. After allowing 10 goals in the first two games, he has allowed only two goals in each of the last four games with a potent .945 save percentage. Tampa Bay is 17-5 revenging a loss vs opponent of two goals or more this season and it falls into a situation where we play on any team revenging a loss where it got shut out, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .700. This situation is 72-45 (61.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (54) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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05-23-18 | Braves v. Phillies -116 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The National League East is shaping up to be a great race and two teams involved square off for the series finale tonight. The Braves won last night to regain their 1.5-game lead over Philadelphia and they have taken seven of the first 11 meetings this season. Atlanta improved to 18-9 on the road which is the best road record in the National League but going against that is doable as it keeps the price down. We won with the Phillies in this series opener behind a solid pitching performance from Nick Pivetta and we are expecting another similar outcome tonight. Philadelphia is 6-2 in its last eight home games and it is 17-7 on the season and that .708 winning percentage is second best in all of baseball behind the Yankees. The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Jake Arietta gets the ball for Philadelphia and he has been great in his first season with the Phillies as he has a 2.82 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in eight starts. He has allowed two runs or less in seven of those games and while the lone poor outing was against the Marlins, it was on the road. His home 1.07 ERA and home 0.83 WHIP are two of the best numbers in baseball. Atlanta counters with Luiz Gohara who is making his first start of the season after logging seven innings in the bullpen. He made five starts last September and was average with a 4.91 ERA and while he did have a quality outing against the Phillies, he got the loss and the Phillies are now 14-3 in their last 17 home games against left-handed starters. 10* (956) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. The call on the Rockets on Sunday was a bad one so coming back with them tonight may not seem prudent, but it is based on the opposite of what conventional wisdom is going by. The pressure is all over the Rockets to win tonight to avoid a 3-1 series deficit right? Not exactly. The Rockets have been written off after their landslide loss Sunday, but he worst has already happened for them and they are now playing with house money. If Golden St. loses, the series is tied with Houston reclaiming home court advantage and it will be without a big piece for tonight that is being overlooked. While not many believe that Andre Iguodala being out is not a big deal, it is a huge deal. Iguodala has proven himself to be a forerunner for the Warriors this year, when he is engaged the way he was engaged in Game Three, his teammates typically follow his lead and the lack of focus that can be attributed to the Warriors at times has a lot to do with Iguodala being engaged. Additionally, no other player on the roster can defend 1-5 like Iguodala, and that could be a huge advantage for the Rockets. Houston committed 19 turnovers in Game Three which was a big part of the 23 fast break points that the Warriors put up and the Rockets are well aware that they cannot let Golden St. go into transition. Despite a huge majority of the betting tickets on the Warriors, the line has actually gone from -8.5 to -8 in some places and this reverse line movement is a telling sign. Houston is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 road games revenging a loss while going 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games revenging a loss of 30 points or more. 10* (505) Houston Rockets |
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05-22-18 | Angels v. Blue Jays -101 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. After a scorching start to the season, it has been a rough month for the Blue Jays as they are 4-12 over their last 16 games. They just got swept in four games against Oakland at home where they have fallen four games under .500 as they continue to rely on their strong bullpen. The Angels are in a funk as well, albeit not as lengthy, as they have lost five of their last six games and they are coming off a disappointing 4-7 homestand. Los Angeles trails the Astros by 3.5 games in the American League West after leading throughout most of the early season. The Angels are 8-21 in their last 29 games following an off day. J.A. Happ gets the ball for Toronto and he is coming off his best start of the season as he allowed just two hits and no runs in seven innings while striking out 10 and walking none against the Mets. He has had only one bad start and taking that game against the Mariners out of the equation, he has a 3.14 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his other eight starts with Toronto going 6-2 in those games. The Angels counter with Garrett Richards who is having a solid season as well with a 3.47 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in nine starts. However, only three of those starts have been quality outings including one of four on the road. The Angels are 0-7 in his last seven starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play against road teams that are hitting .190 or worse over their last five games going up against an opponent that is hitting .225 or worse over its last 15 games. This situation is 42-17 (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. We had Cleveland on Saturday as it rolled to a 30-point win to cut its deficit in this series in half. That victory was one of all six games in the Conference Finals that have been decided by at least 13 points, four of which have been decided by at least 22 points. These finals are due for a close game and this could be the one as the Celtics look to rebound from a horrible effort in Game Three. They shot just 39.2 percent from the floor including 27.3 percent from long range while the typically stiff defense allowing Cleveland to shoot 48.7 percent and 50 percent respectively. All five Cavaliers starters scored in double-figures for the first in forever and we likely are not going to see that again while watching the Boston defense improve as a whole. Conversely, we will see a regression of the Cavaliers defense which has been horrible most of the season. They contested 76 percent of the Celtics' shots in Game Three, according to data compiled by ESPN Stats & Information, compared to just 58 percent on the shots they contested in Games One and Two. Boston has struggled on the road this postseason but that should be no excuse for the effort put forth and this has been an ideal spot all season long. Boston is 21-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season including a perfect 12-0 ATS revenging a loss of 10 points or more. 10* (705) Boston Celtics |
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05-21-18 | Lightning v. Capitals -124 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Game of the Week. The Washington season is on the line tonight as it has lost three straight games following winning the first two games on the road in Tampa Bay. This is the first time the Capitals have trailed in this series which is nothing new as they trailed in their first two series as well only to come back and win those. This Washington team has differentiated itself from past versions by how it has embraced adversity, and the team rode that scrappy, resilient identity to its first conference finals berth in 20 years. This is their first elimination game of the postseason so that identity will once again come to the forefront. Tampa Bay does have the momentum with three straight wins behind the brilliant goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy as after a 6.00 GAA and .839 save percentage in Games One and Two, he has a 2.00 GAA and .943 save percentage since as the series' biggest difference-maker. Give him credit as he has been peppered with shots during this three-game winning streak and Tampa Bay has been outshot by an average 10.8 shots per game in the series which is an enormous differential. The Lightning was in this position before, leading the Penguins 3-2 in the 2016 conference final before dropping the final two, including Game 6 at Amalie Arena. Washington has not lost four straight games all season and it is 11-1-2 in its 14 games following consecutive losses. Additionally, we play on home favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. This situation is 192-88 (68.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (10) Washington Capitals |
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05-21-18 | Braves v. Phillies -114 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Phillies closed their roadtrip with a 5-1 loss in St. Louis but finished 3-2 overall and look to gain ground on the Braves in the National League East where they are 1.5 games out of first place. Rhys Hoskins hit a home run yesterday, one of just two hits for Philadelphia and that puts it into a great situation explained later. Additionally, the Phillies are 7-2 in their last nine games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Atlanta took two of three against the Marlins to conclude a 3-2 homestand including a 10-9 win yesterday where they rallied from an 8-2 deficit and scored six runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. That certainly is a momentum-builder for the Braves, but it can also be considered a letdown opportunity going into today. While the Braves are 17-8 on the road, the Phillies are 16-6 at home including wins in five of their last six. Nick Pivetta gets the ball for the Phillies and with the exception of one poor outing against the Nationals, he has been great. He has a 3.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through nine starts and those numbers are better at home where he possesses a 2.48 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in five starts. Atlanta counters with Mike Foltynewicz who has a 2.87 ERA but his WHIP of 1.34 is a concern as his control is very spotty. His 24 walks are twice as much as Pivetta in the same amount of innings. The Braves are 3-13 in Foltynewicz' last 16 starts while the Phillies are 13-3 in Pivetta's last 16 starts. Here, we play on home teams after a game where they had two or less hits, starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (954) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. With the Rockets winning Game Two by 22 points, people are already giving Game Three to Golden St., but it is not going to be as easy as they think. While the Warriors responded from defeats in the first round to San Antonio and then against the Pelicans in the Western Conference semifinals, this is a much tougher opponent and you cannot ignore the fact Houston won a league-high 31 road games during the regular season and are 3-1 on the road in the postseason. Houston is just 1-4 this season as a road underdog which sounds unappealing but three of those losses came with no Chris Paul in the lineup and the other came when everyone rested in the season finale at Sacramento. The victory was here against Golden St. in the season opener for both teams. The Warriors are 21-5 following a loss but they have only covered 14 of those 26 games due to inflated prices which we again have here. This is another odd betting scenario as 65 percent of bets and 78 percent of money is on Golden St., yet this line had not moved since it came out after Game Two on Wednesday night and has moved only a half-point in some spots. Houston cannot allow Golden St. to get out in transition and that ended up being a big part of the Warriors being able to pull away in Game One as they outscored Houston 18-3 in fast break points. Game Two was a completely different story as the Warriors finished with just seven fast break points and this will again be key in Game Three. 10* (503) Houston Rockets |
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05-20-18 | Liberty -4 v. Sky | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK LIBERTY for our WNBA Sunday Enforcer. The Sky came through for us yesterday as they won in Indiana by 18 points. They had a big edge at the free throw line which was a big difference as was the fact the Fever once again showed how bad of an offense they have going back to last season. Things will get a lot tougher tonight and we will be fading Chicago despite this being its home opener and in a brand new home as well as they are now actually playing in Chicago at Wintrust Arena as opposed to playing their games in Rosemont. New York opens its season on the road and gets a good draw with Change having played on Saturday. In each of the past two years with the new playoff format, the Liberty have finished as the No. 3 seed behind Minnesota and Los Angeles, giving New York an opening round bye. However, the Liberty have lost in the single-elimination second round both years. Making the early exit from last season even tougher is the fact they closed the regular season with 10 consecutive victories. This is a team that will be playing with a chip on its shoulder all season long under the leadership of new head coach Katie Smith who the players will respond very well to. New York took care of its top priority in the offseason by re-signing franchise star Tina Charles (2012 MVP, 8-time All-WNBA), while also resigning Kia Vaughn, Bria Hartley, Lindsay Allen and Rebecca Allen so the core group is back to take that next step. 10* (609) New York Liberty |
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05-20-18 | Padres v. Pirates -127 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -127 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. After taking the opener of this series on Thursday, Pittsburgh has been shut down on offense the last two days by scoring just two runs in each game and ended up losing both. Still, the Pirates are 8-3 over their last 11 games and on the season, they are 15-8 at home. They have fallen a game and a half behind Milwaukee in the National League Central but look for the series split today in a good pitching matchup. The Padres have been playing better the last couple weeks, but the offense remains a work in progress as their .229 average is tied for third worst in baseball. San Diego is 6-12 following a win this season and going back, it is just 8-26 in its last 34 games after having won three of its previous four games. The Padres have gotten some solid pitching performances from arms you would not expect and one of those was from Jordan Lyles in his last start. He took a perfect game into the eighth inning before a one-out single broke it up in what ended up being the best start of his career. This is the time to fade that however. Trevor Williams have been the Pirates most consistent starter as he has a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through nine starts, six of which have been quality. He has allowed more than three runs only once, which came on the road, and going back to last season he has allowed two runs or less in eight straight home starts. His ERA is a spectacular 1.43 over that eight-game stretch. The Padres are 0-6 in their last six games against starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. 10* (908) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Saturday Star Attraction. Cleveland finds itself in a 2-0 hole but al least those first two games were on the road and now it gets back in the series by holding serve on its own home floor. We can see a scenario where the Cavaliers play one of their best games of the postseason amid adversity and then fall flat on Monday with this clearly being the biggest. The three days off in-between Games Two and Three benefits Cleveland more than Boston and not because of any rest factor but because it should fuel a fire for the Cavaliers while the Celtics confidence and momentum take a hit with the time off. Boston is now 9-0 at home in the postseason but this is a different team on the road. The Celtics are 1-4 on the highway and the offense has been the reason for the huge discrepancy. In those nine home games, Boston has shot fewer than 42 percent only once but in the five road games, it has shot below 42 percent four times. We know the Cleveland defense has been trash but all it takes is more effort, especially on its home floor, where it can get back in this series. Cleveland has been here before as just two years ago, it trailed 2-0 and then 3-1 in the NBA Finals to Golden St. before coming back to win in seven games and end the 52-year championship drought. The Cavaliers climb back into the series as we see inspired efforts and not just from LeBron James but from the role players that have been taking so much heat the last three days. 10* (704) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-19-18 | Diamondbacks -122 v. Mets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Sot. The Mets took the opener of this series last night behind a gem from Jacob deGrom as he held the Arizona offense in check once again. New York is two games over .500 and it sits 3.5 games out of first place in the National League East. The Mets have not won consecutive games since mid-April when they opened the season 11-1 as they have now gone 0-10 in their last 10 games following a win. Arizona has dropped eight of its last nine games as the offense has been awful. The Diamondbacks have scored more than three runs only once during this stretch while averaging a mere 1.9 rpg. Their batting average has dipped to .219 which is the worst in baseball as is their .210 average against right-handed pitching. They have fared better against lefties and they get a chance to break out today against Steven Matz who has been decent but unspectacular. He ha only one quality outing in seven starts and going back, the Diamondbacks are 25-10 in their last 35 games against left-handed starters. Arizona counters with Patrick Corbin who has been great with a 2.53 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through nine starts. He had his streak of eight straight starts of allowing three runs or less snapped last time out, so we can expect a bounce back. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are batting .190 or worse over their last five games, with a bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games. This situation is 46-12 (79.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (959) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-19-18 | Sky v. Indiana Fever | Top | 82-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO SKY for our WNBA Saturday Terminator. Chicago struggled out of the gate last season as it went 3-12 in its first 15 games as the trade of Elena Delle Donne was felt right away. But instead of completely folding, the Sky got some newfound chemistry and closed the season 9-11 and while they missed the playoffs, it was not by much and they can carry that momentum into this season. Stefanie Dolson had a strong season and was named an All-Star, while the veteran backcourt of Allie Quigley and Courtney Vandersloot continued to blossom. Getting rid of turnover issues is the most important thing for the Sky to accomplish if they want to make a postseason run. Indiana was a disaster last season as it finished with the second worst record in the WNBA. The Fever lost Tamika Catchings to retirement and no one was able to fill the void. Candice Dupree had a very good season and they do bring back most contributors but a key one will be missing today as Shenise Johnson is out. The biggest obstacle is figuring out how Kelsey Mitchell, Victoria Vivians, both rookies, and Dupree can develop chemistry and that may take a while. Last season, the Fever were second to last in offensive rating and last in defensive rating, so the record fit the style of play. 10* (303) Chicago Sky |
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05-18-18 | Wings v. Mercury -4.5 | Top | 78-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX MERCURY for our WNBA Friday Enforcer. Phoenix has arguably been the biggest underachieving team in the league over the last two years during the regular season but there is plenty of optimism in 2018. Diana Taurasi is healthy and rested after ending her overseas season early, DeWanna Bonner is back after missing all of last season and Phoenix signed two veterans that will help immediately. And then there is Brittney Griner who is coming off her best season ever, winning her first scoring title (and leading the league in blocks for the fifth consecutive year. The trio led the charge during the 2014 season when the Mercury won a WNBA-record 29 regular season games on their way to winning the third championship in franchise history. Additionally, they added Briann January and Sancho Lyttle. Dallas has the potential to improve as well mainly because of the signing of Australian center Liz Cambage and bringing her back to the franchise that originally drafted her No. 2 overall back in 2011. While she will help around the rim, this is still a weak team defensively as last season, the Wings had the second worst defensive rating in the league. Though this team has many draft lottery picks from recent years, Dallas had the worst, or second-worst, defensive team rating every season since 2010. Phoenix has lost its season opener the last two seasons which has set a tone and it will out to ovoid that going into 2018. 10* (302) Phoenix Mercury |
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05-18-18 | A's v. Blue Jays -107 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Toronto dropped the opener of this series last night as May continues to disappoint. The Blue Jays are 6-10 this month including a 0-6 record following a victory so coming off a loss is not a bad thing. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last five games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Oakland moved back to .500 with the win last night and it is now 4-3 on this current roadtrip. It has not been a great month either as Oakland is 8-8 in May and is still two games under .500 on the road. The Toronto starting pitching has been horrible this season for the most part and Marco Estrada can be lumped into that with his 5.32 ERA through eight starts. Five of those have been on the road however and in three home starts, his ERA is 6.00 but two of those were against the Red Sox and the other against the Yankees. Toronto is 8-0 in his last eight starts when its opponent scores five runs or more in its previous game. Brett Anderson opened the season on the DL and his first start back was successful but his last two outings have not. He has a 12.38 ERA over eight innings in those games which has added to his struggles since 2016 where he has an overall ERA of 7.44 in 20 games. 10* (916) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-17-18 | Lightning v. Capitals -110 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. The Lightning came through for us on Tuesday as they avoided a likely insurmountable 3-0 hole, but we expect Washington to put the pressure back on Tampa Bay after tonight. The Capitals were impressive in their two wins in Tampa Bay and with the road team winning the first three games in this series, Washington will be the first to break through at home. Game Three could have gone the other way if not for mistakes as Washington outshot the Lightning 38-23 but did not help goaltender Braden Holtby with six minor penalties. Holtby allowed four goals but was helpless on the one-timers on the power play by Steve Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. We should see the offense bounce back after a dismal .053 shooting percentage last game after averaging a .142 shooting percentage in the first two games and going back, Washington is 39-16 in its last 55 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. The Capitals have been more impressive on the road during the postseason than they have been at home, but this is still a solid advantage. Only five teams in the NHL had more victories at home than Washington's 28 and that total represents seven more wins than the Capitals managed on the road, so we know what it is capable of here. Washington is 18-4 in its last 22 home games after a loss by two goals or more and it falls into a situation where we play on favorites revenging a loss, off a home loss by two goals or more. This situation is 186-92 (66.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (60) Washington Capitals |
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05-17-18 | Padres v. Pirates -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The weather forecast for Pittsburgh was not looking good as rain was in the forecast for tonight, putting the game in jeopardy. It has changed however, and it is looking good for this one to get in, so it is worth putting up. The Pirates have won two straight games and seven of their last eight to remain in a tie for first place in the National League Central where only two games separate four teams. With its 4-1 record on this homestand, Pittsburgh has improved to 14-6 at home. The Padres are coming off a respectable 6-6 homestand but they are still 10 games under .500 despite what has been a very favorable schedule. San Diego has played 29 of its 44 games at home but it has been unable to take advantage and it is not in a good spot here as the Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win while going 0-6 in their last six series openers. They sent Eric Lauer to the hill and it has not been a good start to his rookie season. He is 1-2 with an 8.27 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in four starts even with one of those being a quality outing. Pittsburgh is hitting .264 against left-handed pitchers while winning four of its last five games against left-handed starters. Chad Kuhl counters for the Pirates and he is having a decent season with a 4.17 ERA and he is pitching better at home as he has a 3.52 ERA in four starts, three of which have been quality outings. Pittsburgh is 5-1 in his last six home starts against teams with a losing record. 9* (954) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-16-18 | Jets +125 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the WINNIPEG JETS for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. Vegas is a big consensus play for tonight as it heads home after tying this series after a 3-1 victory in Winnipeg in Game Two and grabbing home ice. It is a legitimate consensus play based on what the Golden Knights have accomplished at home this season, but they are a pedestrian 9-6 over their last 15 home games and are a bit overpriced against what has been one of the best road teams in the postseason. Twice the number of bets have come in on the Golden Knights, yet the line has not budged and based on the smart money moves, Winnipeg has the majority of that action coming in. Winnipeg won its last series thanks to going 3-1 in Nashville and it has only lost once in regulation on the road during the postseason. The Jets had several scoring opportunities early in Game Two but were unable to convert so that outcome could have been different from what took place. The Jets are 23-7 in their last 30 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. This includes a perfect 4-0 record in the postseason, 3-0 on the road, where they have outscored the opposition by a combined score of 18-3. Additionally, Winnipeg is 27-4 against the moneyline revenging a loss this season. It also falls into a contrarian situation where we play against teams against the money line that are coming off a road win by two goals or more, playing their third or fewer game in 10 days. This situation is 59-29 (67 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (3) Winnipeg Jets |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. If the Rockets do not win tonight, this series is pretty assured to be over in four games, so this is a must win for Houston to keep any hope alive. They played good for half of Game One, but it was not the typical team effort that we have seen throughout the season and it will take a full team effort to even this series. Ad we think that happens tonight. James Harden takes a lot of heat for coming up small in the postseason but his effort in Game One cannot be understated. He still got grief from a select few gasbags, bashing him for ball-hogging and selfish play. The reality is, he was exceptional and most of his mistakes came from trying to do too much because he had to. One thing we mentioned in the Game One analysis was that Houston cannot allow Golden St. to get out in transition and that ended up being a big part of the Warriors being able to pull away as they outscored Houston 18-3 in fast break points. Despite the win and cover, the Warriors could be vulnerable tonight based on their inconsistent play on the road as since January 20th, they are just 11-11 in their 22 road games. We are aware that they were not at full strength and that Golden St. has only lost twice in the postseason with Kevin Durant Steph Curry on the floor together, but we cannot underestimate what Houston has done this season when healthy as well. Tying up the series is vital, and Houston does it tonight. 10* (502) Houston Rockets |
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05-16-18 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks +105 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. We won with Arizona last night, but it was far from pretty as the Diamondbacks managed only three hits the entire game as Daniel Descalso singled home the tiebreaking run with two outs in the eighth inning. That victory snapped the six-game slide for Arizona and will be back them again at this price which is surprisingly undervalued. It was a rare one-run loss for the Brewers which are now 10-5 in that category and while they are off to a great start this season, being favored in some spots in this matchup is a head-scratcher. Milwaukee fell to 15-9 on the road, which is very strong, but it has won just one of its last five road games against teams with a winning home record. Brandon Woodruff gets the ball for Milwaukee and while he was solid in four relief appearances, his two starts have not been good as he has a 12.15 ERA over 6.2 innings. The Brewers won both games however than to 8.0 rpg of support. We do not expect that today as Matt Koch counters for the Diamondbacks and he has quietly put together a solid season. He has a 2.43 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five starts and has allowed two runs or less in all of those. Three of four home starts have been quality outings and here, we play on National League home teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 with an on base percentage of .300 or worse on the season, after scoring four runs or less in five straight games. This situation is 54-27 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (902) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. We made a horrible call on the Cavaliers in Game One on Sunday as they came out with little energy and were unable to find any shooting touch. They missed their first 14 three-pointers and finished 4-26 from behind the arc. Needless to say, Cleveland needs to shoot better, and we are fully expecting that as it ended up shooting just 36 percent from the floor including only 32.7 percent by the starters. The Celtics boast a strong defense, but it is not that dominant as it was just one of those nights by the Cavaliers. They were not much better on defense as they lost their men and allowed a whopping 60 points in the paint which was a big factor in Boston shooting 51.2 percent from the floor. While the big news was LeBron James having an ineffective game, Kevin Love was neutralized as well and when he is clicking, the whole team plays better. Cleveland was out of it after the first quarter and a big reason for that was because Love sat on the bench for most of it because of two early fouls. Keeping him in the game early will be important. Back on March 27th, Cleveland also went 4-26 from long range against Miami and James took over in the next game by scoring 41 points on 14-26 shooting while pulling down 11 boards and dishing out eight assists. Cleveland now an underdog and on the season, it is 11-4 ATS when getting fewer than five points and here, we play against teams in the second half of the season that are +3 to +7 in scoring differential going up against teams with a +/- 3 scoring differential, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 51-22 ATS (69.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (701) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-15-18 | Lightning +107 v. Capitals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 107 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. Before the playoffs started, Tampa Bay was one of the consensus favorites to win the Stanley Cup, but it has found itself in a deep hole, down 2-0 after losing the first two games of this series at home. The Lightning will now have to win at least two games on the road to avoid going home earlier than expected with the game tonight representing a must win situation. History is certainly not on their side as of the 41 previous times a team lost the first two games in the Conference Finals, 39 went on to lose the series, including every team that lost its first two at home. But, Tampa Bay can look at these playoffs and see that Washington went down 2-0 to Columbus with both losses at home only to come back and win the next four games. Surprisingly, Washington has been a better bet on the road than at home during the postseason as the Capitals are 7-1 on the highway after the two-game sweep in Tampa Bay while going just 3-3 at home. The same can be said for the Lightning as well as they 3-1 on the road with two underdog wins in Boston compared to 5-3 at home with the three losses coming in at -161, -189 and -185. While the pressure may be different, Tampa Bay has been effective in this spot during the season as it is 13-3 on the road revenging a loss as a favorite while going a perfect 8-0 revenging two losses by two or more goals. Additionally, we play on road teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 revenging a loss where opponent scored five or more goals, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 78-49 (61.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (1) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 119-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. Despite being underdogs in Game One and not having the home court edge, the Warriors are over 2-1 favorites to win this series, so Vegas is telling us something in this opener. We like the Rockets home court edge, especially in the opening game where we typically see great energy from the home team in trying to not give up home court advantage. This is the first time all season that the Warriors are underdogs when both Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are on the floor. Additionally, it's the first time the No. 2 Warriors have been in a playoff series without home-court advantage since 2014 when they lost to the Los Angeles Clippers 4-3 in the opening round. Houston is 50-5 this season in games where James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capela have played, and during the regular season, the Rockets outscored their opponents in those games by an average of 11.5 ppg. Taking care of the ball will be vital throughout this series and Houston possesses a turnover rate of 9.8 per 100 possessions which is the second lowest postseason rate in the 41 years since the league started counting turnovers. While that increases productivity on offense, it also decreases fast break opportunities on defense which is important for the Rockets that ranked 22nd in transition defense this season. Golden St. is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games when playing against a team with a winning record while Houston is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games coming off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. 10* (732) Houston Rockets |
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05-14-18 | Mariners v. Twins -105 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. The Twins went on a 3-13 run in late April and early May but have since won seven of their last nine games, all on the road. They did lose the final game of the roadtrip yesterday, but the confidence is back, and the offense is hitting again. Minnesota is still two games below .500 (17-19) but trails the American League Central-leading Indians by 1.5 games and got a boost as outfielder Byron Buxton returned to the lineup after he missed 21 games. The Twins are 4-1 in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Seattle dropped two of three against the Tigers and is now 3-3 on this current roadtrip. The Mariners took a big hit yesterday with the loss of Robinson Cano who broke his hand after getting hit with a pitch. Jake Odorizzi gets the ball for the Twins as he looks to extend a two-game winning streak. He has a 2.76 ERA in his last three games and held the Cardinals to a run and two hits in five innings his last time out. He has one back start against the Yankees which was his only big blemish as he has allowed three runs or less in six of his eight starts. Wade LeBlanc counters for Seattle and he has been solid in two starts but has yet to be stretched out as he has gone just nine innings overall. Minnesota is sixth in baseball with a .266 average against left-handed pitching and is it 10-1 in its last 11 home games against left-handed starters. 10* (916) Minnesota Twins |
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05-13-18 | Capitals v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Sunday Breakaway. We recommend a play on the puckline with the Lightning as the moneyline has risen based on their Game One loss and need for a victory tonight. Tampa Bay will be playing with a lot more urgency in Game Two as it had only 10 shots through the first two periods on Friday as it fell behind 4-0. Breaking it down further is even worse as when Washington scored its fourth goal at 6:42 of the second period, the Lightning had only four shots on goal. Heading to Washington down 2-0 is a recipe for disaster so we can expect a more fired up team early in the game and just two weeks ago, the Lightning lost 6-2 to the Bruins in Game One of the second round, then won the next four games to advance. Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is coming off a rare poor outing as he allowed all four goals before being pulled. This was just the second time in the postseason he has allowed three or more goals and only the seventh time since early March he has done so. He bounced back all previous six times with strong efforts and allowed 2.0 gpg in those follow up contests. We mentioned in the Game One analysis how good Washington has been playing on the road, but this is a difficult situation it is falling into tonight. Tampa Bay is 16-4 against the puckline revenging a loss of two goals or more this season including a 9-1 record when that loss took place at home. 10* (56) Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 PL |
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05-13-18 | Cavs -1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 83-108 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. Boston has gone 7-0 at home during the postseason yet comes in as a home underdog in Game One. That can be considered a value play on the Celtics, but the Cavaliers have found their rhythm as they took care of the Raptors in four games which set up five days of rest in-between games. That is a big deal for Cleveland which played 11 games in 22 days in the first two series, so this unexpected time off came at a great time. LeBron James is obviously the key for Cleveland as he has carried his team on his back in the playoffs as he has averaged 34.3 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 9.0 apg, 1.5 spg and 1.0 bpg. Boston has been his favorite target in the postseason as he has scored 979 points against the Celtics in the postseason, which is the most by any player in NBA history. The Cavaliers took out Boston in five games last season and James averaged 29.6 ppg, 6.8 apg, 6.4 rpg, 2.2 spg, and 1.2 bpg and he put up at least 30 points in all four of their wins. Although lost in the LeBron hype has been the improved play of Kevin Love who has regained his touch as he averaged 25 ppg and 11 rpg in the last three games against Toronto. The Celtics defense was tremendous during the regular season, but they have taken a big step back as they are allowing 105.8 points per 100 possessions after giving up just 101.5 ppg during the regular season. Cleveland won here in the last meeting in February by 22 points and Boston had Kyrie Irving at the time while this puts the Cavaliers in a great situation. We play against home underdogs that are revenging a loss of 20 points or more, off a home win by three points or less. This situation is 34-8 ATS (81 percent) since 1996. 10* (733) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-13-18 | Royals +252 v. Indians | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our Sunday ultimate Underdog. The value on Kansas City in this game is tremendous as we are going against nearly a 3-1 favorite that is sitting at .500 on the season. The Indians won yesterday behind another solid outing from Mike Clevinger and they send their ace to the hill today, but Cleveland is just 7-11 following a victory this season. It has been a rough go for the Royals, but they have picked up their game of late as they are 8-6 over their last 14 games following a 2-17 stretch. The Royals are 5-0 in their last five when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. The reason for this big number is Cleveland pitcher Corey Kluber as he is once again putting together a great season. In eight starts, he has a 2.62 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, and all eight starts have been quality outings. There have been problems of late though as he has not been as dominant over his last four starts. He has allowed three runs in each of those games to post a 3.77 ERA and he has given up eight home runs during this stretch. He allowed his 10th home run on July 15th last season. Additionally, his K:BB ratio is not nearly as good as it was at this time last season. Daddy Duffy gets the ball for Kansas City and while his season has been up and down, he has shown positive signs along the way and is coming off a solid effort in his last start against the Orioles. Cleveland is hitting just .188 over its last five games against left-handed pitching and it is ninth in the American League against lefties for the season. 10* (971) Kansas City Royals |
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05-12-18 | Mariners v. Tigers +138 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 138 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS (Game One) as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. This is the same play from yesterday that was rained out. Detroit is back home following a disappointing 2-5 roadtrip as it is now 15-21 on the season. 13 of those 21 losses have come on the road as the Tigers have been much better at home where they have won seven of their last 10 with two of those losses coming by just one run. Overall, half of their home losses have come by just a single run showing they have been close to a much better record which gives the underdog price more backing. The Mariners took two of three in Toronto to improve to a very impressive 13-7 on the road. They have not been able to put any big run together of late as they have dropped their last four games following a win. It has been an up and down season for Marco Gonzales as he has a 5.19 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through his first seven starts with just three of those resulting in quality outings. He has been getting better with his K:BB ratio and while the Detroit offense has been inconsistent, it is hitting .268 against left-handed pitching which is third best in baseball. Gonzales has thrived in day games but has been torched at night as he has a 9.26 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in three starts under the lights. Detroit counters with Matt Boyd who has quietly having a solid season with a 3.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in six starts, four of which have been quality outings. His numbers are even better at home where he is 3-3 in quality performances with the Tigers going 2-1 in those games, the lone being a 1-0 defeat. 10* (922) Detroit Tigers |
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05-11-18 | Capitals +165 v. Lightning | Top | 4-2 | Win | 165 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Friday Breakaway. After going through many previews of this series, hardly anyone is giving Washington a chance to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals. To do that, the Capitals need to steal a game in Tampa Bay and this could be the one as they come in peaking at the right time. They were able to get rid of the demons take out Pittsburgh in the semis and they have now won 20 of their last 27 games including 10 of their last 11 on the road. The Lightning made quick work of both New Jersey and Boston and are the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference for a reason. However, laying a moneyline like this is overaggressive especially against a team playing so well on the road. Tampa Bay allows 2.87 gpg at home which is not very good considering its spot in the standings as that defense is ranked ninth worst in the NHL. The Capitals have a slight advantage on the penalty kill (79.1 percent) over the Lightning (74.2 percent) in the postseason and were significantly better (80.3 percent) than Tampa (76.1 percent) in the regular season. We also give a slight goaltending edge to Washington and Braden Holtby who has taken this opportunity by allowing just 2.04 gpg during the postseason. Washington falls into a great underdog situation as we play against favorites against the moneyline in the second half of the season coming off three consecutive divisional wins with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 59-38 (60.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (23) Washington Capitals |
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05-10-18 | Jets +140 v. Predators | Top | 5-1 | Win | 140 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the WINNIPEG JETS for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. A trip to the Western Conference Finals is on the line tonight and based on this moneyline price, Nashville has a clear edge. That is not the case however. Despite being two of the best home teams in the league, the road team is 4-2 with each team winning twice in their opponents arena. The matchup itself could not be more even as there is little to separate the Predators and Jets. They have each attempted 338 shots and put 177 shots on net during 5-on-5 play, per Natural Stat Trick. At 5-on-5, there is only a one-goal difference between the two (Predators 12-11). In shots on goal through six games, the margin is four (Predators 217-213). All of this being said, we should be seeing a line more toward the even range, but it is skewed heavily toward the Nashville home ice. While the Jets should be able to ice their regular lineup, Nashville might have to play without center Mike Fisher, who left Game 6 in the first period because of an undisclosed injury and never returned. Winnipeg is 25-4 against the moneyline (+21.4 Units) revenging a loss this season. Going back, Nashville is 9-16 in its last 25 games against the moneyline off a road win by 2 goals or more and this season, it is 0-4 against the moneyline in home games off a road win by three goals or more. 10* (53) Winnipeg Jets |
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05-10-18 | Royals v. Orioles +103 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 103 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Thursday Triple Play. Baltimore picked up a rare win last night as it snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 5-3 win over the Royals. The Orioles got a solid pitching performance from Andrew Cashner and it has been the pitching that has been the disaster as they have a 5.64 ERA from the starters which is the worst in baseball. Kansas City has not played much better this season as it is 12-24 as its pitching has been the big letdown as well. The Royals have the third worst ERA in baseball and going back, they are 4-13 in their last 17 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Chris Tillman has been part of the starting pitching problem, but his numbers are skewed. He has a 9.24 ERA on the season through six starts with all of that damage coming on the road. In four road starts, he has a 16.04 ERA and those games were against the Angels, Astros, Yankees and Red Sox which are four of the five highest scoring teams in baseball. At home, he has a 2.77 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in two starts so heading back to Camden Yards is just what he needs, especially facing a Royals team that has struggled to score runs this season. Kansas City is 4-17 against the moneyline against right-handed starters this season. Ian Kennedy has been the most consistent starter for Kansas City as he has a 2.92 ERA but his numbers dip on the road and he faced Baltimore once here last season and allowed four runs in four innings. 10* (914) Baltimore Orioles |
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05-09-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -118 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers let us down last night as Enrique Hernandez hit a ninth-inning home run to tie the score 5-5 and force extra innings but they allowed a three-run home run in the 12th inning to drop their third straight game. They are now 7-9 at home and it took them until June 5th to lose their ninth game at home. Los Angeles is nine games behind Arizona in the National League West, so it needs to make a move and force a split in this short two-game set. Arizona has won three straight games to remain 3.5 games in front of Colorado which has made a move following six consecutive victories. They were able to solve Rich Hill last night as they hit three home runs off him, but the challenge will be tougher tonight facing Alex Wood who has allowed only two home runs all season. Despite a 3.82 and 0.92 WHIP in seven starts, he is winless as the bullpen has been letting him down. In three home starts against Arizona, he has a 1.33 ERA and going back, the Dodgers are 13-3 in his last 16 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. While Wood has let to win, Patrick Corbin has yet to lose as he is 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.76 WHIP through seven starts. He has had much more success at home with a 1.32 ERA in five starts where all four wins have taken place, but his ERA jumps to 4.50 on the road. He dominated the Dodgers twice but both games were at home and going back, the Diamondbacks are 6-16 in his last 22 road starts. 10* (960) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -1 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. The Sixers kept the series alive with a win on Monday to send it back to Boston for Game Five and while momentum could be on their side, the Celtics have the overall edges to close out this series at home. It comes down to one thing for Boston and it is really simple, shoot the ball better. Turnovers were an issue Monday, but the decline has been mostly about the Celtics' shooting, and mostly about their shooting from beyond the arc. After shooting 32-for-71 (45 percent) from three-point range in Games One and Two, the Celtics shot 21-for-70 (30 percent) from long range in Games Three and Four. A return home definitely helps. Thus far in the postseason, the Celtics have been 11.5 points per 100 possessions better offensively at home (where they've averaged 111.4 ppg) than they've been on the road (99.9 ppg). Five of their six best offensive games of the playoffs have come at TD Garden, where they're 6-0. A win would close this series out at the opportune time with Cleveland already heading to the Eastern Conference Finals so close to equal rest is ideal. The Sixers are just three games over .500 on the road while the Celtics remain extremely tough at home with a 33-14 record. Boston is 10-0 ATS revenging a double-digit loss more this season and it falls into a solid situation where we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a game where they failed to cover the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 165-104 ATS (61.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (712) Boston Celtics |
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05-08-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -116 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Dodgers are back home after losing their series against the Padres in Mexico to fall to 15-19 on the season as injuries continue to mount. The good news is that they are getting one of their top pitchers back from injury tonight in an important series to gain ground on Arizona. The Dodgers are 11-3 in their last 14 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Arizona closed out a 4-3 homestand with a pair of underdog wins against Houston as it has yet to lose a series this season. That is keeping this price down with a number that is rare in a similar spot. Rich Hill was placed on the 10-day disabled list nearly three weeks ago due to inflammation in his left middle finger. He was on track to start against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field, but those plans were changed because of an infection in the finger. He got an extra two days after getting scratched due to the humidity of Mexico and he is statistically been one of the best left-handed pitchers in the game when healthy even though that has not shown this season. A bad start prior to his DL stint was the difference as he had allowed just three runs over 10 innings in his first two starts. Zack Godley gets the ball for Arizona and he has been inconsistent as he has three quality starts in six outings and he has struggled on the road of late. Over his last two road starts, he has a 9.00 ERA and in three career starts at Dodger Stadium, he has a 5.17 ERA. 10* (910) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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05-08-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -12 | Top | 102-112 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Tuesday Enforcer. After Utah tied this series with a win in Houston in Game Two, the Rockets went full steam ahead on the road and swept both games in Utah by double-digits. That pretty much put an end to this series and the Rockets know that ending this series tonight is imperative with Golden St. likely doing the same against New Orleans. Houston was not great in Game Four on offense as it shot just 42 percent including 26.3 percent from long range, but it was the defense that did the job and that underrated unit does not get enough recognition. When the Rockets put the clamps on teams like they did in Games Three and Four, they are difficult to beat even when they have one of their worst shooting performances of the year. Houston limited Utah to 40.1 percent shooting in Games Three and Four, including 31 percent from behind the arc. Utah put together a special season after a slow start, but it does not have the horses to compete in a full series against a team like the Rockets, especially with Ricky Rubio sitting and he has already been downgraded to out for tonight. Houston is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 while the Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, we play against road underdogs that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg going up against an opponent after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (506) Houston Rockets |
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05-07-18 | Giants v. Phillies -103 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. San Francisco has turned the corner as it has won four straight games and seven of its last eight with both offense and pitching stepping up. The Giants are now four games over .500 and trail the Diamondbacks by four games in the National League West and are now starting to become overvalued. The Phillies have been going in the opposite direction as they have lost six of their last eight games following four losses in their recent six-game roadtrip. They head home where they have lost their last two games, but they are 11-5 at home with the pitching leading the way with a 3.26 ERA which is tied for fifth best in baseball. We backed Zach Eflin in his first start of the season and while he pitched good enough to win, he got no run support. He went six innings and allowed just three hits with a home run being his lone mistake as he looked like he can fit into this rotation. While his career numbers are nothing to get excited about, injury issues have hurt him as he had tendonitis in both knees and a stress fracture in his foot, but he is now healthy once again. Jeff Samardzija counters for the Giants and he has been up and down through three starts. He allowed six runs against the Nationals in just 3.2 innings and while he gave up only two runs in his other two starts, he lasted just five innings in each of those. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-07-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. While this series is likely over, the Sixers are not going down without a fight and a win could spark something. This series could easily be 2-1 Philadelphia as it blew a 22-point lead in Game Two and then lost in overtime in Game Three so while it is in a hole, it knows it can compete and remain alive for at least two more days. Given the way Game Three ended, with a couple of crucial turnovers in the closing moments, it might seem difficult look at the good things, but the reality is that the Sixers did enough things right in the first 46 minutes of the game that it never should have come down to the final seven. The turnovers were key, but Philadelphia has to close better down low as it missed 14 shots within four feet, so the game should not have even come down to the final seconds and when these shots fall tonight, Game Five will be necessary. What really makes this play stand out is the fact that the line is 2.5 points less than what it closed at in Game Three, so the value is on the home side. The revenge angle is in play as we back home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This situation is 52-22 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (502) Philadelphia 76ers |
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05-06-18 | Warriors -6 v. Pelicans | Top | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. New Orleans stole Game Three of this series as it played a solid game offensively, shooting 50 percent from the floor and it held the Golden St. offense in check. The Warriors shot just 38 percent including only 29 percent from long range and we do not see them having a second straight poor game on offense. We expected the Pelicans to be more in line from the charity stripe, but they were once again outshot considerably and in the three games, Golden St. is 67-85 while New Orleans is just 25-32 and another significant advantage for the Warriors will be detrimental, especially if the Warriors shoot the ball better from the floor. One player we can expect to be better is Steph Curry as he scored only 19 points while shooting only 6-of-19 from the field and 3-of-9 from three-point range in 27 minutes. It was acknowledged that Game Two is always the worst coming back from injury for whatever reason and that was on full display after he came off the bench in his first game back. While New Orleans did not play a perfect game, it was a near perfect gameplan against the Warriors and duplicating that will be tough. going back, New Orleans is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog and Golden St. falls into a fantastic situation where we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season with a scoring differential of +3 to +7 ppg going up against a team with a scoring differential of +/- 3 ppg, after allowing 110 points or more two straight games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (705) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-06-18 | Indians +133 v. Yankees | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Yankees will be out for sweep today while Cleveland is looking to avoid going back to .500 on the season. We expect the latter to take place today as the Indians have a solid pitching edge and at a great price on top of that. New York is 14-1 in its last 15 games after opening the series with a 7-6 win Friday and following it up with a 5-2 victory Saturday afternoon. Cleveland had chances to win both games, but the bullpen blew it the first game while the defense let it down yesterday. The Indians offense has been much better of late after a slow start and they have a chance to Bust out today. Domingo German will be making his first career start after 12 games in the bullpen dating back to last season. He is taking the place of Jordan Montgomery who will be out six-to-eight weeks with a left elbow flexor strain. German owns a 3.77 ERA and 18:7 K:BB across 14.1 innings and he is coming off a season-high 61 pitches when he replaced Montgomery on Tuesday, so we cannot expect too much from him today. Mike Clevinger counters for Cleveland and he is off to a solid start with a 2.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through six starts. He has made two starts on the road and has yet to allow an earned run and that has been the case in his whole career with better splits on the road than at home. He has never faced the Yankees which is a big edge for him. Here we play on underdogs with a bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season, with a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.00 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 35-21 (62.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (915) Cleveland Indians |
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05-05-18 | Raptors v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. Toronto had chances to win each of the first two games of this series, but it blew big leads in both and now finds itself in a hole that will be near impossible to get out of. Cleveland has the Raptors number and even though this is far from the strong Cavaliers teams of the past, they should continue to dominate this series, especially heading back home. The Cavaliers are 9-1 at home against the Raptors over the last three years in the regular season and postseason while riding an eight-game playoff winning streak against Toronto and are 21-3 at The Q against Eastern Conference playoff opponents. For the second straight game, the Cavaliers have had a significant advantage in points scored off turnovers and through the first two games, Cleveland is outscoring the Raptors 34-8 on points scored off turnovers. That is significant since those games were on the road and the home/road splits favor Cleveland even more. History is not on the side of Toronto as twenty-six teams have lost the first two games at home in a best-of-seven series and just five have come back to win the series with Game Three losses coming 17 times. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Raptors are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite of seven or more points. Additionally, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a double-digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more, with a winning record playing another winning team. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. 10* (704) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-05-18 | Astros v. Diamondbacks +110 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Astros rebounded from three straight losses against the Yankees as they blanked Arizona last night behind the first ever shutout for Gerrit Cole. Houston is 11-4 on the road this season after posting a 53-28 road record last year, which was tied with the Indians for best in the Majors. This road domination is hard to look past, but it gives incredible value the other way which is the case tonight for Arizona. The Diamondbacks have lost three straight games for the first time this season as the offense has been handcuffed, scoring a total of three runs during the losing skid. They still lead the National League West by 3.5 games over Colorado and it has been a three-game swing since the losing steak began. Arizona has won eight of ten games following a loss and it turns to Zack Greinke to help stop the slide. His home/road split differential is enormous as on the highway, he is 1-2 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in three starts but in three home starts. He is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.75 WHIP after going a major league-best 13-1 at home in 2017. The Diamondbacks are 7-0 in his last seven starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Charlie Morton counters for the Astros and he is off to a great start after six starts but this is just his second road outing on the season. He dominated at home last season but posted a 4.17 ERA in nine road starts. This has been the case throughout his career as his road ERA is over a run and a half higher than it is at home. 10* (980) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-05-18 | Penguins v. Capitals -110 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. Give Pittsburgh a lot of credit for evening up this series in Game Four after dropping two straight games following a road win to take home ice away from the Capitals in the opener. You have to give the Capitals even more credit for winning those consecutive games however as after falling down 1-0, that could have been an early end in trying to solve their problems against the Penguins in the postseason. This has been an iconic series already which comes as no surprise as this is the ninth time in 11 postseason meetings the series will go at least six games. The Capitals still possess home ice and tonight is vital to take advantage of that as a loss puts them in a hole that will be hard to recover from. They have been behind 3-1 each of the last two years against Pittsburgh and failed to recover so they are in better shape now but cannot let it slip away. The Penguins held Alex Ovechkin without a shot on goal for just the third time in 107 career playoff games and something says he rebounds after putting up 42 shots in the first nine games of the postseason prior to that. Washington averages 3.3 gpg at home and after allowing just one goal in the first two road playoff games against the Flyers, the Penguins have allowed 11 goals in their last three road games and are allowing 3.3 gpg on the road for the season. Washington is 14-3 against the moneyline after scoring one goal or less in their previous game this season while the Penguins are 1-6 in their last seven games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (60) Washington Capitals |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS PELICANS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. The Pelicans are in a 2-0 hole in this series which was expected as the Warriors have now won 14 straight home playoff games. After sweeping the Blazers, many are expecting the Pelicans to get ousted in four games, but we expect them to steal at least one game and this is the one to get. New Orleans played good in Game Two as it was in it the whole game but a late 9-0 run from Golden St. put the game away. The Pelicans have a very underrated offense as they finished No. 8 in the NBA in offensive efficiency and they are shooting close to 50 percent from the floor in the postseason. The difference in this series has not been Golden St. taking control on offense or defense, but it has been from the free throw line. The Warriors are 46-59 from the charity stripe while the Pelicans are just 16-20 so the disparity is enormous, and we can expect a regression toward the mean with New Orleans heading back home. Golden St. is as healthy as it has been all season which is bad news for the rest of the NBA but it has not been good all season when playing against winning teams as it is 17-32 ATS against above .500 teams while going just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Additionally, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a win by six points or less going up against an opponent after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games. This situation is 34-14 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (514) New Orleans Pelicans |
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