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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-04-23 | Tigers +157 v. White Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. The Tigers have squandered a great opportunity to inch closer in the American League Central as they have dropped the first two games of this series with an offense that has scored just one run but they are still just 3.5 games behind the Twins. Chicago remains inconsistent as it puts together some small run only to give them right back as it has been unable to make up much ground. Even with the two straight wins, the White Sox are 10 games under .500. It is baffling how Michael Kopach has been as inconsistent as he is has allowed four runs or more in five of his 11 starts and after tossing two straight shutouts over 15 innings, the Angels lit him up last time out and his ERA at home is 4.86. Matt Boyd has been the atypical where he has had his success on the road. In five home starts, he has an 8.34 ERA and 1.90 WHIP with the Tigers going 1-4 but on the road, he has a 3.86 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with Detroit going 5-0 in those five outings. Here, we play on road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a winning percentage between .460 and .499 after having lost four of their last five games, playing a losing team. This situation is 28-11 (71.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (965) Detroit Tigers |
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06-03-23 | A's +185 v. Marlins | Top | 1-12 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Miami took the opener of this series last night as it shut out Oakland 4-0 behind a stellar effort from Edward Cabrara. The Marlins have won five of seven to get back to two games over .500. Oakland has dropped two in a row following a pair of huge underdog wins over the Braves and the Athletics are catching another big number despite not having a huge disadvantage on the mound. Luis Medina opened the season with an awful start against the Angels but has settled down and is two-thirds of an inning from tossing three straight quality outings. Medina has allowed seven home runs in those four starts but Miami is not a power team, ranked tied for fifth fewest home runs in the league. Eury Perez has been a great addition to the Marlins rotation as he has allowed three runs or less in all four of his starts but he has yet to go past five innings and Miami is just 2-2 in those games. Here, we play on American League underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who lasts less than five innings per start. This situation is 22-14 (61.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (927) Oakland Athletics |
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06-03-23 | Brewers v. Reds +101 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our Saturday Free Play. Milwaukee took the series opener 5-4 in 11 innings last night to maintain its half-game lead over Pittsburgh in the National League Central. The Brewers are just 3-5 over their last eight games and come in as a small public favorite tonight. The Reds have lost two straight games following a five-game winning streak that has gotten them into the mix in the very average division as they trail Milwaukee by only four games despite the loss last night. Colin Rae has been serviceable for the Brewers with a 4.75 ERA through eight starts but he has only one quality outing and he has allowed four runs in exactly half of his starts. Graham Ashcroft came out of the gate on fire as he posted a 2.00 ERA through his first six starts but then hit a wall where he allowed seven or more runs in three of four starts but is coming off a good bounce back effort against the Cubs to carry into today. Here, we play on National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or worse over his last five starts going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. This situation is 26-9 (74.3 percent) since 1997. Play (906) Cincinnati Reds Matt is coming off Friday Sweep with wins on the +158 Nationals and +135 Orioles for a +$2,930 night, and he is 11-2 his L13 plays and it is now an 18-6 +$18,320 MLB run! Matt is poised for a massive Saturday with an MLB Underdog Double Play as he goes for yet another PERFECT 2-0 SWEEP! The NBA is coming off a loss with the Heat on Thursday night and the NBA is on a 46-32-2 recent run. Going back, Fargo is on a 128-88-3 run and keeps it going in the NBA Finals which continue on Sunday. |
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06-03-23 | Mariners +131 v. Rangers | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Seattle lost the series opener on Friday as Luis Castillo pitched a gem but was outdueled by Jon Gray in the 2-0 loss. The pitching has been great lately, allowing three runs or less in 10 of 13 games. The Rangers has won 10 of 13 to maintain their lead in the American League West which is now 2.5 games over the Astros. The potent offense however has been held in check with just two runs in each of the last two games. Texas will see an unknown which is an edge for the Mariners as Bryan Woo will be making his Major League debut. The top pithing prospect in the system has posted a 2.05 ERA in nine starts while winning the Mariners Minor League Pitcher of the Month for April and May. Andrew Heaney has been on fire with a 0.95 ERA over his last three starts but most of his success has been on the road where he has a 1.82 ERA in four starts compared to a 5.34 ERA in six home outings. Here, we play on American League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 allowing 4.4 or fewer rpg, after allowing two runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 26-12 (68.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (915) Seattle Mariners |
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06-02-23 | Orioles +145 v. Giants | Top | 3-2 | Win | 145 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Baltimore is coming off a 2-4 homestand as it lost both of its series against the Rangers and Guardians and hits the road where it has been one of the best this season with an 18-9 record and won over 12 units but comes in as a significant underdog tonight. The Giants had won six of seven games but they have lost three of their last four including two of three against the Pirates in a series loss. San Francisco is back to .500 overall on the season with no significant home park edge where they are 16-13. Logan Webb is the reason they are big favorites here as he has been lights out with a 1.68 ERA over his last seven starts after posting a 6.08 ERA in his first four outings but he has a very tough matchup against one of the highest scoring teams in baseball. Dean Kreamer has also been pitching very well after a shaky start as he opened with a 6.67 ERA in his first six outings but over his last five starts, he has a 2.45 ERA with Baltimore winning four of those and he has a good opposing matchup here. 10* (979) Baltimore Orioles |
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06-02-23 | Phillies v. Nationals +169 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 169 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Phillies were swept in New York as the offense mustered only three runs over the three-game set and they have now lost four straight games to fall to 25-31 and come in as massive road favorites despite being just one game better than Washington. The Nationals salvaged the series finale against the Dodgers on Wednesday to snap a three-game losing streak and finish a respectable 3-3 on their roadtrip. They have not been great at home at 11-17 but have a good pitching matchup. Josiah Gray has quietly put together a great season for Washington as he has posted a 2.77 ERA in his first 11 starts and taking away his first outing of the season where he allowed five runs over five innings against the Braves and his ERA drops to 2.22 in his other 10 starts. Zack Wheelers had a couple uneven starts to open May but it coming off his best start of the season where he went eight shutout innings while allowing three hits against Atlanta. He has allowed four runs in four of his 11 starts. 10* (956) Washington Nationals |
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06-01-23 | Heat +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA signature Enforcer. Denver has the clear advantage of having a ton of rest heading into the NBA Finals as well as playing at home where the Nuggets have been unbeatable in the postseason, going 8-0 in their first eight games. That being said, they are favored by their second biggest amount in the playoffs which is overaggressive entering the Finals against a team that has been very solid on the road. Denver has a prominent home court edge with the atmosphere and because of that, the public will be riding it here but the extra time off could be a disadvantage especially when being asked to lay a huge number. Miami has gone 6-4 on the road in the postseason including the Game Seven blowout win over Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals when it easily could have fizzled under the pressure and as mentioned in the analysis of that victory, coaching played a big part of that. Taking nothing away from Denver head coach Mike Malone who has done an incredible job with creating this team but Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra has the experience and accolades to have this team ready for Game One. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off a road win by three points or less, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 69-32 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (513) Miami Heat |
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06-01-23 | Guardians +124 v. Twins | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Minnesota came through for us last night as it defeated Houston 8-2 and defeated a very solid pitcher in Hunter Brown while taking the series with the Astros. The Twins remain two games ahead of Detroit in the American League Central and 3.5 games ahead of Cleveland. The Guardians can flip the standings with a big weekend in Minnesota and they too are coming off a series win as they took two of three in Baltimore. It has been an early disappointment for Cleveland but this has been a bad division which they are right in the mix of. After an inconsistent start to the season, Tanner Bibee has been flourishing as he has tossed three straight quality outings against some very potent lineups, posting a 1.83 ERA and 0.81 WHIP covering 19.2 innings while putting up a 19:5 K:BB ratio. Pablo Lopez was a big acquisition from Miami and he started great for the Twins with a 1.73 ERA through his first four starts but he has been all over the place since then as he has posted a 5.67 ERA over his last seven starts, allowing five runs or more three times. 10* (907) Cleveland Guardians |
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06-01-23 | Rockies +157 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Colorado got shut out on Wednesday 6-0 to drop the first three games of this series to fall to 24-33 on the season and it comes in as another significant underdog today despite the best pitching matchup it has had in the series thus far. Arizona has won four straight games to improve to 33-23 and the Diamondbacks are now just a half-game behind the Dodgers in the National League West. Arizona is 10 games over .500 for the first time since 2018 which shows how improved it has become after losing a combined 198 games the last two seasons. This will be just the fourth start of the season for both starters as Chase Anderson goes for Colorado and he has regained some of early career magic from his days in Milwaukee. He has a 1.72 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in three outings and most impressive is that all three were at Coors Field. Zach Davies made two starts in April with mixed results and then hit the IL. He came back last weekend against Boston and allowed two runs on five hits in just 3.1 innings and will likely be limited again backed by an average bullpen that has a 4.13 ERA which is bottom half of the league. 10* (905) Colorado Rockies |
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05-31-23 | Twins +176 v. Astros | Top | 8-2 | Win | 176 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Houston took the second game of this series 5-1 after dropping the opener despite getting outhit in both games and now Houston is laying by far its biggest number of the series. Minnesota remains in first place in the American League Central mostly by default as it is the only team in the division above .500 and it is on the cusp of that, by just one game at 28-27. Louie Varland has been consistent as he has allowed three runs or less in five of his six starts and avoiding the long ball is vital as he has allowed nine home runs to go along with an exceptional 1.23 WHIP. Hunter Brown has been consistent as well, allowing three runs or less in seven of his 10 outings and while his home/road splits are similar, the Astros are just 2-2 in his four home starts with one of those wins being against lowly Oakland. Here, we play on American League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start. This situation is 42-19 (68.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (967) Minnesota Twins |
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05-31-23 | Phillies v. Mets +112 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 112 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. It has been a rough start to the season for the Mets as they are back to one game over .500 after the series opening win last night but that is still nowhere near where expectations were coming into the season. The offense is starting to come around despite scoring just two runs last night. The Phillies have been a bigger disappointment as they are now four games under .500 and are 6.5 games behind the Braves in the National League East. Aaron Nola has been part of the Philadelphia disappointment as after allowing five runs over six innings against the Braves, his ERA now sits at 4.59 through 11 starts and his ERA on the road is even worse at 5.02 where the Phillies have gone 2-5. Carlos Carrasco re-entered the rotation two starts back against his former team the Guardians and it was not good but he bounced back last time out for his best start of the season, allowing in 6.2 innings against the Cubs. Here, we play on home teams with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start, while averaging 0.5 or fewer errors per game on the season. This situation is 53-28 (65.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (958) New York Mets |
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05-31-23 | Nationals +225 v. Dodgers | Top | 10-6 | Win | 225 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS for our MLB Afternoon Dominator. The Dodgers have won the first two games of this series by comfortable margins and are once again laying a similar number in the series finale despite what is hardly a significant pitching edge. They still have the divisional lead but have gone just 6-6 over their last 12 games. Washington has lost three straight games but the Nationals have been a profitable team this season as they have gone over expectations despite what will not turn into a successful season as they continue to rebuild. Washington is a very respectable three games under .500 on the road and +4.9 units. Pat Corbin had a shaky start to the season with a 7.71 ERA through his first three starts but then settled down by posting a 3.57 ERA over his next seven outings before running into a rough game last time out but it is rebound time once again. Noah Syndergaard is in a similar situation where he went through a solid stretch before getting lit up last time out and the difference with him is the fact that he has been lit up for six or more runs three different times and has only three quality starts overall. 10* (953) Washington Nationals |
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05-30-23 | Reds +175 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-8 | Win | 175 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Cincinnati is coming off a three-game sweep against the Cubs over the weekend and has won five of its last seven games following a four-game losing streak. The Reds are just four games worse than Boston but the line is telling us different. The Red Sox took two of three in Arizona following their own four-game losing streak and they remain three games over .500 which has them 9.5 games behind Tampa Bay in the American League East. Brayan Bello has been pitching great which is a big reason for the significant favorite number as the has allowed three runs or less in six straight games although only two of those were quality outings. He has a 4.58 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in four home starts. Ben Lively is back in a starting rotation for the first time since 2018 and he has made the most of it so far as he has a 3.08 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in two starts and is one-third of an inning from both being quality outings. Here, we play on teams after sweeping a three-game series against a division rival, in an interleague game. This situation is 40-10 (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (923) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-30-23 | Padres +120 v. Marlins | Top | 9-4 | Win | 120 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. San Diego has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball this season as following a series loss in New York, the Padres are five games under .500 and are eight games behind the Dodgers in the National League West but it is only a matter of time when this offense wakes up. After opening its roadtrip 2-5, Miami swept the Angels over the weekend to break even and remain two games over .500 which put them in second place in the National League East. The Marlins offense is also one that continues to struggle. Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara tossed a three-hit shutout in his second start this season and looked like he was going to start rolling but he has struggled to a 5.96 ERA over his last eight starts. Ryan Weathers opened the season with a 2.81 ERA in his first three starts but he has struggled somewhat of late by allowing four runs in each of his last two outings but it has not been horrible. Here, we play on road teams batting .175 or worse over their last three games and with a bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games. This situation is 33-15 (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (901) San Diego Padres |
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05-29-23 | Yankees +130 v. Mariners | Top | 10-4 | Win | 130 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Yankees are regaining their health and with that has come a solid run as they are coming off a series win over San Diego and they have won nine of their last 13 games despite a three-game losing streak being thrown in the mix. Seattle won its weekend series against Pittsburgh following a four-game sweep over Oakland and the 6-1 run has put the Mariners back over .500 and are now 5.5 games behind Texas in the American League West. Domingo German got hit hard in Minnesota to end April where he allowed six runs including three home runs in six innings but he has been great since then, posting a 1.64 ERA. This is his first start since his 10-game suspension. Bryce Miller has been outstanding since the top prospect was recalled from the minors as he has a 1.15 ERA through his first five starts which is the reason the Mariners are significant favorites here. Here, we play on road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 after five straight games where they stranded seven or less runners on base and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last three starts. This situation is 26-13 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (965) New York Yankees |
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05-29-23 | Heat +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Boston barely survived Game Six as it won on a last second tip in to force a Game Seven and while it seems the Celtics have the big advantage, that might not be the case in this game as the biggest intangible that is not in their favor is coaching. That was even evident at the end of Game Six as the inbound play that the Celtics ran was horrible but they got away with it. One thing that Miami can take solace in from Game Six is that they nearly won despite their two biggest players, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, going a combined 9-37 (24.3 percent) from the floor and it is highly unlikely that both have back-to-back poor games. Admittedly, the pressure has clearly shifted from being on Boston and going over to Miami as it was ready to become just the second No. 8 seed to make the NBA Finals and is now in the position of being the first team ever to blow a 3-0 series lead. There have been only 36 Game Seven road winners in the NBA playoffs but it has happened 15 times in the past 12 seasons so Miami winning this game outright is far from out of the question. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 off a road win by three points or less, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 68-32 ATS (68 percent) since 1996. 10* (509) Miami Heat |
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05-29-23 | Rays v. Cubs +116 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 116 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay is coming off a series win over the Dodgers to conclude a 7-3 homestand and it improved to 26-6 at home. The Rays have not been as good on the road as they are 13-10 where the pitching has not been nearly as strong. The Cubs were swept at home against Cincinnati over the weekend and they have now lost four straight games following a pair of wins against the Mets to open their previous series and they have now flipped from two games over .500 at home to two games under .500. Marcus Stroman is coming off another solid start where he allowed two runs on four hits over eight innings against the Mets and he has allowed two runs or less in nine of his 11 starts including five of six at home. Taj Bradley opened his career strong with four straight starts of allowing three runs or less but gave up four runs in four innings against Toronto last time out. Here, we play against American League road teams averaging 5.4 or more rpg and after a win by two runs or less going up against National League teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better. This situation is 29-8 (78.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (970) Chicago Cubs |
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05-28-23 | Giants v. Brewers +120 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 120 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Milwaukee has dropped the first three games of this series and will look to avoid the sweep on Sunday. The Brewers are still in first place in the National League Central but by just a half-game over the Pirates. The Giants are making a move up in the National League West as they trail the Dodgers by just 4.5 games after a great run where they have won 10 of their last 12 games behind incredible pitching, allowing just 2.7 rpg. The solid pitching has been bolstered by Alex Cobb who has allowed three runs or less in all 10 of his starts and has a 2.17 ERA but a not so spectacular 1.31 WHIP. He has been shaky in his last two outings with a 4.35 ERA. Colin Rea has been up and down as he has allowed four runs in three of his seven starts but he has a 2.45 ERA in his other four starts and is coming off his best game of the season. Here, we play against road teams after scoring and allowing three runs or less going up against an opponent after scoring four runs or less in four straight games. This situation is 140-89 (61.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (902) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-28-23 | Cardinals v. Guardians +130 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 130 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Cleveland took the opener of this series on Friday to snap a two-game losing streak and a 2-7 slide over its previous nine games but gave it back last night. The Guardians are a disappointing 22-29 but very much alive in the weak National League Central. The Cardinals remain hot as they opened the season with a 10-24 record but have won 14 of their last 20 games to remain afloat in the average National League Central as they are just four games out of first place. Jordan Montgomery opened the season strong then got bashed by Arizona before recovering with three straight quality starts but he has struggled since with an 8.16 ERA over his last three outings and remains overpriced. Hunter Gaddis opened the season with some issues and was optioned down to AAA but returned Monday where he tossed six scoreless innings, allowing two hits and one walk in a 3-0 win over the White Sox. Here, we play against road teams after scoring and allowing three runs or less going up against an opponent after scoring four runs or less in five straight games. This situation is 91-52 (63.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) Cleveland Guardians |
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05-27-23 | Mets v. Rockies +185 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 185 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Mets took this series opener on Friday 5-2 as Max Scherzer pitched a gem and they are hoping for a repeat but we do not see it here. New York has won two straight games and seven of nine following a horrible 6-16 run in its previous 22 games. The Rockies has been playing a lot better after a poor start to the season as they are 14-10 over their last 24 games which includes a 10-5 record at home and in this park, we all know anything can happen and a big home dog is always a favorable option. Chase Anderson made his season debut 11 days ago and was great as he allowed no runs on just one hit over five innings against Cincinnati and followed that up with a near quality outing against Miami, both at home. He has been limited the last three seasons but after some strong starts to end last season, he is more than capable of keeping it going. Justin Verlander is making just his fifth start of the season and three of his first four have been great but now he comes to Coors Field for the first time since 2018 and his penchant for allowing the long ball, five already this season, is bad news coming here. 10* (958) Colorado Rockies |
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05-27-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. We won with Boston the last two games and we are riding the Celtics again in Game Six and the series has become a series and they can become the first team to win a series after trailing 3-0 in 150 previous chances. While that feat looks daunting based on the raw percentages, it is a skewed stat as the lower seed was rarely the team to take that series lead and of the 14 teams that made it to Game Six after falling down 3-0, only one was the higher seed. It was another confidence building win in Game Five not only because of the actual victory but also because they played the game that got them to where they are this season, efficient shooting and strong defense. The Celtics shot 50.6 percent from the floor, their second straight game over 50 percent but it was the defense that allowed fewer than 100 points for a second straight game. Offensively, Boston relies heavily on three-point shooting where they finished No. 6 in shooting percentage during the season, and it hit 40 percent in Game Four from long range and followed that up by making 41 percent in Game Five from behind the arc. Here, we play against home underdogs in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams allowing between 108 and 114, after a loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 61-36 ATS (62.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (501) Boston Celtics |
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05-27-23 | Red Sox v. Diamondbacks +125 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. We are coming back with Arizona tonight after losing last night and despite that, the Diamondbacks are playing well as they have gone 9-4 over their last 13 games and trail the Dodgers by just a game and a half in the National League West. Arizona is 14-11 at home and comes in as a surprising underdog. It has been a streaky run for Boston as it put together an eight-game winning streak then went on a 1-6 run before winning four straight only to bring in a four-game losing streak into this series prior to the wins last night. The Red Sox are still a game under .500 on the road. Garrett Whitlock takes the hill for Boston who is coming off a stint on the IL after struggling in three starts this season, going 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA. He made a couple promising rehab starts but even going back to last season in the Majors, he has been very inconsistent. Zach Davies is also coming back into the rotation after an injury and the return of the veteran is big for a rotation that has been thinned out. He made two early starts with mixed results and he is coming off a rehab outing where he tossed 4.2 scoreless innings in his outing with Amarillo with seven strikeouts. 10* (978) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-26-23 | Red Sox v. Diamondbacks +140 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. It has been a streaky run for Boston as it put together an eight-game winning streak then went on a 1-6 run before winning four straight only to bring in a four-game losing streak into this series. Arizona has been very consistent this season for the most part and after suffering a three-game losing streak in early May, the Diamondbacks have gone 9-3 over their last 12 games and trail the Dodgers by just a game and a half in the National League West. Chris Sale comes in in great form as he has tossed four straight quality outings and he is now favored by his biggest price on the road but is in a tough spot against a great offense in a hitters park. He has a 6.00 ERA in five road starts. Brandon Pfaadt has horrible overall numbers but those are from allowing 13 runs in 9.1 innings in his first two starts and in his two outings since then, he has allowed only four runs in 10.1 innings. Here, we play on home teams after a one run loss going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 125-66 (65.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (928) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-26-23 | White Sox v. Tigers +135 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Detroit took the opener of this series on Thursday 7-2 to make it two straight wins and it comes into tonight as a similar underdog despite the better record, playing at home and with a non-disadvantage in the starting pitching. The White Sox had their two-game winning streak snapped with the loss and admittedly, they have been playing a lot better since a horrendous start as they have won seven of their last 10 games but are favored here on name. Lance Lynn got off to a very poor start with a 7.51 ERA in his first eight starts but he has strung together two straight quality outings to help Chicago on his recent run but both of those were at home and he brings in a 6.35 ERA on the road. Joey Wentz has not been much better either as he has been just as inconsistent but has shown flashes by allowing three runs or less in five of nine starts and he was brilliant in a late callup last season with a 1.80 ERA in five starts. Here, we play against road teams after having won six or seven of their last eight games, with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. This situation is 75-24 (75.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Detroit Tigers |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Boston avoided elimination with a Game Four win and it was a confidence building one not only because of the actual victory but also because they played the game that got them to where they are this season, efficient shooting and strong defense. The Celtics shot 51.2 percent from the floor, their second best in the series but it was the defense that allowed a series low 43.6 percent that was the difference. That is the style of defense that led them to the No. 3 defensive efficiency rating in the league and continue that, this will become a series once again. Offensively, Boston relies heavily on three-point shooting where they finished No. 6 in shooting percentage during the season, and it hit 40 percent in Game Four from long range. The Heat have been one of the worst teams in the NBA offensively all season as they finished No. 30 in scoring and No. 26 in shooting including No. 27 from behind the arc, and it cannot keep pace when facing a strong defense that defends constantly and Boston knows that is what has to be done to send this series back to Miami. We are playing a premium number here as we are seeing a 10-point swing from the last game but this has the makings of a blowout, something that has been prevalent throughout the entire playoffs this season. 10* (550) Boston Celtics |
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05-25-23 | Blue Jays +141 v. Rays | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Afternoon Dominator. Toronto snapped a five-game losing streak with a 20-1 win on Tuesday but gave it back last night in a 7-3 loss as Shane McLanahan because the first eight-game winner in baseball. The Blue Jays are back to two games over .500 and could use this series win before heading to Minnesota. Tampa Bay has cooled off considerably after a red hot start as the Rays are 7-8 over their last 15 games as both the bats and pitching have gotten inconsistent. The Rays are just 2-5 in their last seven games following a win. Alex Manoah has been far from the same pitcher from a season ago but he is coming off one of his best starts as he allowed two runs in 5.2 innings against Baltimore but most importantly, issued only one walk which has been his downfall this season after pin point accuracy a season ago. Zach Eflin got off to a great start this season as he posted a 2.25 ERA through his first five starts but he has struggled of late with a 5.21 ERA over his last three outings with the long ball doing the damage as he has allowed five home runs over this stretch and this is not the team to face when struggling there. 10* (963) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-24-23 | Orioles +117 v. Yankees | Top | 9-6 | Win | 117 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Baltimore had its three-game winning streak snapped last night as it blew a 4-0 lead and eventually lost 6-5 in extra innings. The Orioles remain in second place in the American League East, three games behind Tampa Bay. New York has won five straight games to take over sole possession of third place as they trail the Rays by five games as the Yankees are now 10 games over .500. Nestor Cortes allowed more than three runs at home for the first time in his career two starts back against Tampa Bay and while he bounced back against Toronto, he is in a tough spot as he has not been great with a 5.21 ERA through nine starts. Tyler Wells has been very good with a 3.26 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in eight starts and he has strung together three straight solid outings, posting a 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in the process. He could be even better as giving up the long ball has bene his biggest problem. 10* (917) Baltimore Orioles |
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05-24-23 | Padres v. Nationals +146 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 146 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. There are a few options for most disappointing team to open the season and San Diego is right up there. Despite two straight wins, the Padres are 22-26 and trail the Dodgers by eight games in the National League West. Washington has been a little worse as it is 20-28 following the loss last night but this was expected and the Nationals are playing decent enough to show four units of profit thus far. Trevor Williams has been very solid for the most part as he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his nine starts with a couple below average starts against the Mets and Diamondbacks hurting his overall numbers. He is coming off a good start at Miami and is back home where his ERA is 2.55 compared to a 5.40 ERA on the road. Ryan Weathers opened the season with an ERA of 2.81 through his first three starts but was optioned to AAA to get more work and his return start was not good, allowing four runs in 5.2 innings against the Dodgers. 10* (906) Washington Nationals |
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05-23-23 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. The Lakers were in this situation last night and had their chance to extend the series but unfortunately did not come through for us and Boston now looks to extend its series. The difference here is that the Celtics can hang their hat on knowing they have two more games at home if the series gets extended to its length should they win tonight. Boston played its worst game of the postseason in the 128-102 Game Three loss as it was outshot by 17 percent from the floor while the 128 points allowed were the second most given up in the playoffs and the 56.8 percent shooting was the highest allowed in the postseason. Because of that awful performance and the hole they have dug, the line has flipped considerably as Miami has gone from a 4.5-point closing underdog to a favorite of as many as two points in some places with the public wanting no part of this Celtics team at this points. Boston should come out with a ton of urgency based on the embarrassment of Miami becoming the first No. 8 seed in league history to win a playoff game by 25 or more points. Here, we play on teams revenging two straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points, off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite. This situation is 49-22 ATS (69 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (545) Boston Celtics |
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05-23-23 | Blue Jays +122 v. Rays | Top | 20-1 | Win | 122 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Toronto has hit a bad stretch as it has lost five straight games following the 6-4 series opening loss last night and has now fallen into last place in the American League East and trails Tampa Bay by 9.5 games. Tampa Bay has cooled off considerably after a red hot start as the Rays are 6-7 over their last 13 games as both the bats and pitching have gotten inconsistent. They still have a three-game lead in the American League East. Jose Berrios got roughed up in his first start this season but has recovered considerably as he has a 3.64 ERA over his eight starts since then and has posted quality outings in four of his last six starts. Taj Bradley has been very good in his limited action as he has a 3.54 ERA in four starts but has not gone deep into games as his longest outing is 5.1 innings which came against the Reds. He has a 5.40 ERA in two home starts, allowing three runs in five innings both times. 10* (965) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-23-23 | White Sox +119 v. Guardians | Top | 4-2 | Win | 119 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Chicago had its three-game winning streak snapped with a 3-0 loss in this series opener last night as it managed just three hits and had just five players get on base. Cleveland meanwhile shook off getting swept by the Mets with the shutout victory but is still five games under .500 for the season and its own offense has not done much lately, averaging only 3.0 rpg over its last 19 games. After a rough three-start stretch where he posted a 10.93 ERA, Dylan Cease has settled back down and has tossed two straight quality outings, posting a 2.19 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in the process covering 12.1 innings. He has accounted for over 20 percent of the team wins when he takes the mound. Logan Allen outdueled Cease in their last starts as he allowed one run over 5.2 innings and while has a 3.45 ERA over his last three starts, he has a 1.72 WHIP in those games so he has been fortunate to strand the big majority of runners on base. 10* (963) Chicago White Sox |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. After the loss on Saturday, the Lakers find themselves in an insurmountable 3-0 hole and the chances of winning this series are as close zero percent as possible. Of the 149 teams that have lost the first three games of a best-of-seven series, none have been able to come back and win it. Los Angeles did have opportunities to cut the series to 2-1 as it led Game Three in the fourth quarter by a point but allowed the Nuggets to go on a 13-0 run keyed by reserves making big shots. Denver has had the two best players on the floor in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, the latter who has scored 37 points in each of the last two games, and a big problem for the Lakers have been the ability of the Nuggets big men making three-pointers as Jokic and Michael Porter, Jr. are a combined 16-34 (47.1 percent) from long range so that perimeter defense needs to step up. One thing historic thing on the side of the Lakers is that of the 152 conference finals, only 23 have resulted in a sweep and pride can be a big factor in these games if nothing else. Here, we play on favorites revenging a home loss, off a home loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 52-18 ATS (74.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (544) Los Angeles Lakers |
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05-22-23 | Cardinals v. Reds +180 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 180 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. St. Louis has definitely turned it around after a horrendous start to the season as it has won 11 of its last 14 games after a 10-24 start which included an eight-game losing streak right prior to this run. The Cardinals are now once again overvalued. The Reds have lost four straight games following a modest 4-2 run and despite coming off a sweep at the hands of the Yankees, they are still a respectable 12-12 at home compared to going 7-15 on the road. Brandon Williamson is coming off a stellar Major League debut as he allowed just one run on two hits in 5.2 innings and that came at Coors Field against the Rockies. After a two-out walk in the first inning, Williamson retired 14 consecutive batters with six strikeouts. Jordan Montgomery has pitched well for the most part as he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his nine starts but has allowed six and seven runs in the other two. He has struggled with the long ball of late, allowing five home runs in his last three outings. 10* (904) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-22-23 | Rangers v. Pirates +120 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 120 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Texas continues to roll along as it has won eight of its last 11 games including a home sweep of Colorado over the weekend. Pittsburgh has fallen considerably after a hot start to the season as it is coming off a series loss against Arizona and it has dropped seven of its last 10 games to sit two games over .500 but is still right there as the Pirates are just one game behind Milwaukee in the National League Central. Luis Ortiz is making his third start of the season after a couple decent yet unspectacular outings and despite allowing three runs or less in five of his six career starts going back to last season, he has yet to pick up a win but has ben good enough to do so as his bullpen has basically let him down but that bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this season. Dane Dunning has also seen limited action as this is just his fourth start but he has been really good with a 1.59 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his first three starts and that isa big reason for being a significant road favorite tonight. 10* (920) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-21-23 | Celtics -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Lakers were in must win mode yesterday and failed to get it done and Boston is in the same spot tonight but in a different situation and one that is more favorable even though they are on the road. Boston was horrible defensively in Game One, allowing 54.1 percent shooting and knocked that down nearly 10 percent in the next game but its own offense was the downfall even though the Celtics outshot the Heat. Not being at home is obviously difficult but Boston has been very good on the road as it is 29-18 which includes a 4-2 record in the postseason. Miami has pulled off quite the stretch in defeating top seed Milwaukee before taking out the Knicks in six games and now winning the first two games of this series on the road. The Heat are in great position for the series but they will be getting a best effort from Boston tonight. Miami is 33-15 at home but that includes just a 3-4 record as a home underdog. Here, we play on favorites revenging a straight up loss as a favorite of seven or more points going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (541) Boston Celtics |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets +6 v. Lakers | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. This is a must win for the Lakers to avoid a 3-0 series deficit and the line is reflecting that as we are seeing a 10-point swing from Game Two which is too big of adjustment. Los Angeles lost the first two games despite an equal shooting percentage in each game which shows how big the Denver home floor is and while the Lakers head home, this is a different scenario than what they have seen. Memphis lost all three games here but it finished 0-17 as a road underdog all season and Golden St. lost all three games as well but the Warriors were a miserable road team all season. Denver has been better on the road than both of those teams yet is catching a bigger number than in any of those previous six games the Lakers were laying. The Nuggets are 2-3 on the road in the postseason but all three losses were competitive and came down to the final minutes which makes the underdog the play. Here, we play against teams when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 44-19 ATS (69.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (539) Denver Nuggets |
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05-19-23 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The public will be migrating to Boston in this game after losing Game One and the line is reflecting that with the Celtics bigger favorites tonight after their 123-116 loss on Wednesday. Defense was not on display for either side as the Celtics allowed Miami to shoot 54.1 percent from the floor which was their second worst performance of the postseason and while that should improve, so should the other side. Miami also had its second-worst defensive showing of the playoffs as Boston hit 51.9 percent of its shots from the floor and with both teams expected to improve, the big underdog is the side in an anticipated lower-scoring game. Game One was the epitome of the postseason for Boston which has showed up at times and completely disappeared in others and the biggest culprit of that was Jason Tatum who did not score in the fourth quarter and just touched the ball 13 times. Credit Miami for some of that as while Boston was No. 3 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, the Heat made their living there as well as they were No. 7 in efficiency and were tied for No. 2 in the league on the road. One edge mentioned for Game One for Miami was coaching and that was displayed and will not go away here. 10* (537) Miami Heat |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA 3rd Rd Game of the Year. Denver took Game One of this series against the Lakers and it ended up being closer than it should have been as the Nuggets built a 21-point lead in the third quarter only to take their foot off the gas and allow the Lakers cut the deficit to three points late in the game and had a chance for the tie with 45 seconds remaining. It was a push for most and it is safe to say Denver is not going to let that happen again as going to Los Angeles with a 2-0 lead with a statement win in Game Two is on the forefront. We are getting early value as this line has stabilized at 5.5 after seeing Game One close at 6.5 in some places and even a rare 7.5. As mentioned, Denver rarely loses here as it is now 41-7 on the season and that was after a 6-3 start while two of the last four losses came without Nikola Jokic in the lineup so the Nuggets have gone 35-4 in those other 39 games. Los Angeles had its opportunity to steal a road game and grab home court advantage and that chance will be more difficult here. The Lakers are 7-15 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games this season while Denver is 16-7 ATS in home games off a home win this season. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series. This situation is 32-5 ATS (86.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (536) Denver Nuggets |
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05-18-23 | Guardians +136 v. White Sox | Top | 3-1 | Win | 136 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Cleveland got blown out in Chicago for a second straight night as it lost 7-2 following an 8-3 defeat on Tuesday which put an end to a two-game winning streak. It has been a rough start for the Guardians which are now 19-23 overall but are only four games out of first place in the average at best American League Central. The White Sox have recovered somewhat from a 10-game losing streak as they are 9-7 over their last 16 games but that will not cut it for a team that remains 12 games under .500 and comes in as an overpriced favorite. Dylan Cease is considered the ace of this staff but he has been all over the place. He started strong and then allowed 17 runs in 14 innings over a three-game stretch before settling down by shutting out Houston for six innings last time out. Logan Allen, not to be confused with former Guardian Logan Allen, has made four starts since getting recalled and the high prospect has performed well with a 3.43 ERA in four starts with a solid 24:7 K:BB ratio while allowing only two home runs over 21 innings. 10* (907) Cleveland Guardians |
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05-18-23 | Nationals +135 v. Marlins | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Miami won last night to make it three straight wins and the 4-3 victory moved the Marlins to an incredible 14-1 in one run games this season after breaking the record a week ago with 12 consecutive one run wins. Miami is back to one game over .500 and is in second place in the National League East. Washington lost for the second consecutive night by a run and the Nationals are 5-5 over their last 10 games. They have not been horrible on the road as the loss dropped them to just 10-11 on the highway compared to going 8-14 at home. Trevor Williams has been very solid for the most part as he has allowed three runs or less in six of his eight starts with a couple below average starts against the Mets and Diamondbacks hurting his overall numbers. He lasted only 2.1 innings last time out but that was because the game was suspended due to rain. Eury Perez is making his second career start and his first one was decent enough as he went 4.2 innings, allowing four hits and two walks and giving up two runs but both of those were solo home runs so the damage could have been worse. 10* (901) Washington Nationals |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Boston dominated the third quarter of Game Seven against Philadelphia to roll over the Sixers but the Celtics were a couple minutes away of being eliminated in Game Six if not for Jason Tatum to finally show up late and he carried that over into the final game. The line is reflecting that final outcome but it is a toss up with what Boston team shows up here as the Celtics were far from dominant in either series. The rolled over Atlanta in the first two games at home and also rolled the Sixers in two home games but the other three home games saw them lose outright. Boston is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games after two consecutive covers as a favorite. Miami took out top seed Milwaukee in five games and then beat the Knicks in six games and looked very good in doing so. The Heat have peaked at the right time and they do have a significant coaching advantage heading into this series and the extra time off is an added bonus. It was a regular season series split with Miami winning the last two games and one factor Miam needs to have on its side is free throws as they were outshot 93-65 and outscored 77-52 in the four games. Miami is 24-13 ATS in its last 37 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two teams allowing between 108 and 114 ppg, after scoring 105 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 47-22 ATS (68.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (533) Miami Heat |
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05-17-23 | Braves v. Rangers +150 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Interleague Game of the Month. After losing the series opener 12-0 on Monday, Texas got it back last night in a 7-4 win which was not as close as the Braves tacked on three meaningless runs in the eighth inning and it carries that momentum into tonight. The Rangers have won eight of their last 11 games to maintain their three-game lead in the American League West. The Braves have now lost five of their last six games as their fairly easy early season schedule inflated the initial results. The offense has been hit or miss of late and has another test tonight. Nathan Eovaldi has been on fire of late as he has not allowed a run over his last three starts which have covered a combined 25.2 innings but he has been on the cusp of three straight complete game shutouts had he been allowed to finish. Spencer Strider is dominant as well and his numbers are nearly identical to those of Eovaldi yet he comes in as a significant road favorite. Like his counterpart, he has only one poor outing on the season so it is a wash and that is where we get excellent underdog value. Here, we play on American League teams hitting between .265 and .279 and starting a pitcher who gave up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings going up against a National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better. This situation is 25-8 (75.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (978) Texas Rangers |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -6 | Top | 126-132 | Push | 0 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Lakers have made it to the Western Conference Finals thanks to their strong play on their home floor as they beat Memphis three times, which finished the season 0-19 as a road underdog and then defeated Golden St. three times, which was awful on the road the entire season at 13-35 away from home. Once they get home, things could get interesting but they open on the road where they are 2-4 in the postseason and 22-25 overall which is not horrible but this is the toughest environment in the league and they lost both trip here during the regular season by 11 and 13 points. The Nuggets have the opportunistic spot in Game One at home to strike first with a short price where they 40-7 on the season and that was after a 6-3 start. Two of the last four losses came without Nikola Jokic in the lineup so this is a very dangerous team at home at full strength and in the postseason, they are 6-0 with the average margin of victory being 12.5 ppg and only one of those games being decided by fewer than nine points. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered two of their last three games against the spread, playing only their 2nd game in seven days. This situation is 33-6 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (532) Denver Nuggets |
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05-16-23 | Cubs +153 v. Astros | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. We lost with the Cubs last night as they battled back from a 4-0 deficit to tie the game but eventually lost 6-4 on an Alex Bregman two-run home run in the seventh inning. Chicago has dropped three straight games but are catching another good price in a solid bounce back spot. Houston has now won two games in a row and the Astros are starting to put it together as they have now won five of their last six games following a 1-5 stretch and are back to three games over .500 but continue to be overpriced based on their name and history and actually do not have the pitching edge tonight. Justin Steele is not a household name but he should be getting to that point as he has a 1.82 ERA which is second best in the National League as seven of eight starts have been quality outings with the one miss coming by two-thirds of an inning. This is no fluke as he closed last season with a 1.49 ERA over his last 10 starts so in his last 18 outings, he has a 1.65 ERA covering 103.2 innings. Christian Javier has been very good as well but not on the same level as he has a 3.47 ERA through his first eight starts and he has faced off against some quality starting opposition and has come through but the Astros were underdogs in all of those games and he is now getting too much respect in this matchup. 10* (923) Chicago Cubs |
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05-16-23 | Brewers +164 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 164 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Brewers were coming off a sweep of Kansas City over the weekend and opened their series in St. Louis last night as slight favorites and were blown out 18-1 as the Cardinals put up a 10 spot in the eighth inning. Now Milwaukee enters Game Two of the series as a significant underdog as the adjustment is too large in this situation especially with the pitching edge on its side. St. Louis got off to a horrible start this season as it went 10-24 through its first 34 games but has caught fire with wins in seven of its last eight games including that big victory last night. The Cardinals improved to 7-13 at home which is pretty bad even though it includes to straight wins by a combined score of 30-7. Wade Miley is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed seven runs in five innings against the Dodgers. He did not allow more than three runs in any of his first six starts as his ERA coming in was 2.31 and while it has gone up to 3.60, his overall body of work is more pertinent than one lone outing. Jordan Montgomery was extremely solid after coming to St. Louis from the Yankees last season and overall he has been very good this year as he also has six starts of giving up three runs or less but he has two blowups in the mix including last time out against the Cubs and he is laying too big of a price. 10* (903) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-15-23 | Diamondbacks v. A's +185 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. Oakland continues to have the worst record in baseball as it fell to 9-32 on the season following an 11-3 loss against Texas Sunday to drop three of four against the Rangers. The Athletics are catching a huge home number tonight against a slightly above average team that has been average on the road. Arizona concluded a 10-game homestand with a three-game winning streak against the Giants including a 2-1 win on Sunday which followed a three-game skid. The Diamondbacks are just 9-8 on the road and laying their biggest number by far. Merrill Kelly has been solid this season but hit or miss as he has allowed one run or less in four of eight starts but has also allowed four runs in three other ones and overall, Arizona is just 4-4 in his eight outings and is favored by the biggest amount in his career. Drew Rucinski has been inconsistent as well and admittedly has not looked good his last two outings but those were against the Mariners and Yankees and this is a big game for him to keep earning his spot in the rotation. Here, we play on American League home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 averaging 3.6 or fewer runs per game and with a bullpen with a 38 percent or worse save percentage going up against teams with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse. This situation is 47-28 (62.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (970) Oakland Athletics |
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05-15-23 | Cubs +174 v. Astros | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. The Cubs took the series opener in Minnesota on Friday but dropped the final two games including a brutal 16-3 loss on Sunday as Marcus Stroman got lit up. Chicago is now two games under .500 but still only four games back in the National League Central. Houston won on Sunday against the White Sox 4-3 as it almost blew a 4-0 lead and the Astros have now won four of their last five games following a 1-5 stretch and are back to two games over .500 but continue to be overpriced based on their name and history. Framber Valdez is a big reason for this as he has been the most consistent starter with a 2.38 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in eight starts with the last seven starts all being quality outings but Houston is just 3-5 in his eight games as run support has been a big issue. Jameson Taillon has made two starts since coming back off the IL and he has been limited to just 42 and 69 pitches but will continue to be stretched out more. Another reason for the big number is that the Cubs are 0-5 in his five starts. Here, we play on National League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 hitting between .255 and .269 and with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start going up against an American League starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or better. This situation is 23-11 (67.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (967) Chicago Cubs |
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05-15-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox +108 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. Boston hosted the Cardinals at the wrong time over the weekend as after a horrible start, St. Louis has started turning it around and the Rex Sox were swept, culminated by a 9-1 loss on Sunday night. They have dropped five of six games following an eight-game winning streak. Seattle was unable to complete the sweep in Detroit as it lost the series finale on Sunday 5-3 after blowing a late 3-2 lead. The Mariners are back to .500 overall including a decent 10-8 road record and come in favored here. George Kirby id the reason for that as he has been great with a 2.62 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in seven starts and he is coming off his best effort, allowing no runs over seven innings against Texas. However, they are just 4-3 in his starts including 1-2 on the road. The overall numbers for Tanner Houck are not great but he has just one bad start to his credit where he allowed six runs in six innings against Toronto. He has allowed three runs or less in all six other starts with Boston going 5-1 in those games. Here, we play against American League teams with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is between 1.30 and 1.35. This situation is 39-21 (65 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (964) Boston Red Sox |
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05-14-23 | 76ers +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 88-112 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Boston was able to pull away late in Game Six to bring the series back home despite turning the ball over 17 times, the most in their 12 postseason games. The Celtics are now big favorites back on their home floor which has not been a big advantage of late as they have dropped three of their last four games in Boston. The offense does not bring in a lot of momentum as the Celtics have shot only 40.5 percent over their last two games and it has been a downhill regression from the start s they have shot more than 46 percent from the floor only twice since Game One and while the defense has kept it afloat, it has not created east opportunities. The Celtics have forced more than 11 turnovers only once in the series and they have taken it away by an average of only 9.5 per game and as long as the Sixers can shoot anywhere close to the 50.6 percent that they put up in Games One and Five in Boston, they can keep this close with a chance to win it outright again. The Sixers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss while the Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. 10* (509) Philadelphia 76ers |
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05-13-23 | Phillies v. Rockies +139 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. We lost with the Rockies last night as they allowed six runs in the seventh and eighth innings but we will come back with them here in another good spot at the same number. The Phillies have won four straight games to get back to .500 on the season but are still not right. They are 8-9 on the road yet are favored with a pitcher making his first start since last season. The Rockies got off to a horrendous start this year but are playing their last baseball of the season as they have won eight of their last 11 games and while the offense got nothing going last night, it changes here. Ranger Suarez has been on the IL since the season started with an elbow injury suffered while getting ready for the WBC. He made only two rehab starts and likely will not be stretched far here. The Rockies counter with Ryan Feltner who is coming off a tough outing against the Mets where he had no command but prior to that, he posted a 1.06 ERA in his three previous starts against Milwaukee, Cleveland and Philadelphia which all resulted in wins which was no fluke as he showed great flashes late last season. 10* (960) Colorado Rockies |
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05-13-23 | Padres +132 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. After dropping two of three against the Dodgers last weekend, San Diego hit the road and lost the final two games against Minnesota before dropping the opener of this series last night 4-2 despite outhitting Los Angeles 8-6. The Padres are now one game under .500 and are in a pickem spot here but getting a bigger than expected number. The Dodgers have caught fire after a slow start as they have won three straight games and 11 of their last 13 and are now in first place in the National League West by three games over Arizona and five games over San Diego, hence the large number here. Julio Urias opened the season with four solid starts before running into trouble against the Cubs and Pirates but he has bounced back with a pair of strong efforts and while he has been great at home with a 1.82 ERA, this is by far the best offense he has seen. Joe Musgrove has made just three starts after starting the season on the IL and after a very rough second outing, he settled back last time out against the Dodgers and Urias and despite pitcher better in that matchup, his bullpen blew the game. 10* (955) San Diego Padres |
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05-13-23 | Pirates +157 v. Orioles | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. The Orioles had another come-from-behind win to win their third straight game behind a cycle from Cedric Mullins which came right after a three-game losing skid and Baltimore is now within four games of the Rays in the American League East. The red hot start for the Pirates has cooled off considerably as they have lost 10 of their last 11 games and are now out of first place in the National League Central, as they trail the Brewers by a half-game. Pittsburgh was likely playing over its head early on as the offense has done nothing, averaging only 1.6 rpg during this 11-game stretch. Tyler Wells has put up some solid numbers in his six starts so it will not be an easy turnaround for Pittsburgh but Wells has tossed only one quality start in those six games and he has struggled with the long ball, allowing eight home runs in just 35 innings. Roansy Contreras remains a top prospect in this rotation as he posted a solid 3.79 ERA in 18 starts last season and despite coming off a pair of poor outings, he showed prior to that what he is capable of as he posted a 1.45 ERA in his three previous starts. 10* (977) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Golden St. staved off elimination with a Game Five win at home in a game that was close for a while as it was tied at 54 but the Warriors went on a 16-5 run to take an 11-point lead into halftime and did not look back. The Warriors had their second best offensive shooting game of the postseason as they shot 51.1 percent from the floor but this was only the fourth time in 12 playoff games they have shot 50 percent or better but despite the relatively easy win, the defense allowed the Lakers to shoot 48.3 percent and it has not been good throughout as the Lakers have shot 46.9 percent through the first five games. The Lakers were in this spot in their opening series as they lost Game five on the road against the Grizzlies before returning home to wrap up a series win in Game Six in an absolute blowout and Los Angeles is now 5-0 at home in the postseason and it has won eight straight games at home. Anthony Davis was questionable after taking a hit to the head but has been cleared and should be ready for another big game. Here, we play against underdogs when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 37-12 ATS (75.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (504) Los Angeles Lakers |
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05-12-23 | Phillies v. Rockies +133 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Following a six-game losing streak, the Phillies have won three straight games prior to the day off yesterday but they are still under .500 on the season as the slow start continues. They hit the road where they are 7-9 yet come into the series opener as significant favorites. The Rockies got off to a horrendous start this year but are playing their last baseball of the season as they have won eight of their last 10 games. The offense remains somewhat inconsistent but when they get it going, they have been lethal, averaging 6.3 rpg over this recent stretch, scoring nine or more runs four times. While the pitching typically plays a big part in the lines, this one does not make a ton of sense as Taijuan Walker is coming off a solid start but has been lit up of late with a 9.45 ERA over his last three outings. After allowing two home runs in his first four starts, he has given up six over his last three. Austin Gomber was close to getting taken out of the rotation following an outing against the Pirates where he allowed nine runs over two innings but has been a different pitcher since then with a 1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over his last three starts including two straight quality outings. 10* (906) Colorado Rockies |
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05-12-23 | Braves v. Blue Jays +150 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 150 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Blue Jays are back home following a poor roadtrip where they went 3-5 and have lost six of their last nine overall. Toronto has been a home underdog only twice this season, both at +110, so this is the biggest number they have seen here all season. The Braves have won 11 of their last 15 games and have the best record in the National League and while great on the road, they have yet to face a team above .500 through 18 road games. Spencer Strider has been great this season with a 2.70 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through seven starts with Atlanta going 7-0 in those games so the linemakers are forced to make the Braves a significant road favorite despite facing one of the best teams in baseball. But after two straight start allowing no runs, he has a 5.40 ERA over his last two outings. Chris Bassitt has a 4.28 ERA in his first season with Toronto but that number means nothing as all the damage came in his first game against the Cardinals where he allowed nine runs in 3.1 innings which can be attributed to first game jitters with the new team and in six starts since then, he has a 2.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP covering 36.2 innings. 10* (924) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-11-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Boston is coming off its worst game of this series as it lost its second straight game forcing them to win the final two games to move into the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics shot a series worst 39.8 percent from the floor and that was its worst shooting performance since March 5 against the Knicks, a span of 28 games so we can expect a better effort tonight and the same can be said on the other side of the floor. Philadelphia shot 50.6 percent from the field against one of the best defenses in the league and on the season, the Celtics are 15-5 following a game where they allowed the opposition to shoot 50 percent or better including four straight wins and two in the postseason. Boston has been efficient in this series by not giving it up much but it has not produced turnovers on defense as in the three losses, the Celtics have forced only 7.3 turnovers per game which has let to very few easy scoring chances. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have both been great throughout but the one player that is vital is Al Horford who has gone 214 from long range over the last two games and any success from him opens this entire offense up. Here, we plat on teams revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite of seven points or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 47-12 ATS (79.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (553) Boston Celtics |
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05-11-23 | Rays v. Yankees +110 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Divisional Game of the Month. The Yankees have won three straight games and bring in some important momentum to this important four-game series with the first place Rays. Tampa Bay is coming off a series loss in Baltimore as it continues to be a pretty average team against opponents above .500 as they are 11-7 against such opponents. Domingo German has had a great season so far but his 4.35 ERA shows different and that top line number does not tell the whole story. In six starts, he has not allowed more than five hits in any of those as the damage has come from the long ball as seven home runs have accounted for 28 percent of his total hits as his WHIP of 0.94 is tied for seventh best in baseball while his .177 BAA is No. 5 among qualified starters. Drew Rasmussen has had a solid season as well but he has been hit or miss as he has allowed no runs in four of his seven starts but has allowed five runs in two of the others and three runs in five innings in the seventh outing. He shut down the Yankees but that was at home and his only successful road outing were at Washington and Cincinnati. 10* (958) New York Yankees |
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05-10-23 | Lakers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 106-121 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Divisional Game of the Month. Down 3-1 in this series following a pair of losses in Los Angeles, it is obviously must win time for Golden St. at it needs to take the final three games which is going to be a tall order. Heading back home, this is a game the Warriors should win to send the series back to Los Angeles but in this spot, the line has been overadjusted because of the must win scenario. The Lakers closed as 2.5-point favorites on Monday and we are seeing a 9.5 to 10-point swing which is too big for the change in venue and while we saw a similar shift when the series went from Golden St. to Los Angeles, the situation is much different with the pressure that is on the line. As expected, the Warriors did shoot better in Game Four coming off a 39.6 percent effort in Game Three but in three of their last four playoff games where they have shot 46 percent or better, they have followed it up with games of 40.0 percent, 37.2 percent and the aforementioned 39.6 percent. The defense has not been good throughout as the Lakers have shot 46.6 percent through the first four games and Golden St. has held Anthony Davis in check only once in those games. We are catching excellent value in what should be a close game which have been few and far between in the entire postseason. Here, we play against teams when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (551) Los Angeles Lakers |
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05-10-23 | White Sox v. Royals +123 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 123 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Kansas City took the opener of this series 12-5 but gave it back with a 4-2 loss last night which snapped a modest two-game winning streak following a three-game losing streak and a 2-8 slide going back. They come in as underdogs again in a decent pitching matchup. Chicago had a 10-game losing streak going but has put together a 6-3 run over its last nine games but it is still in a big hole at 13-24 overall yet is still not far back in the mediocre American League Central. Brad Keller was off to a great start to the season with a 3.56 ERA through his first six starts, allowing three runs or fewer in five of those including two or less runs four times but was roughed up last time out against Oakland where he allowed six runs over 4.1 innings and we expect a rebound here. Lance Lynn has been a major disappointment as he opened the season with a strong effort but has blown up with a 7.49 ERA over his last six starts, allowing fewer than four runs only once. Here, we play against American League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 hitting .260 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.55 or worse on the season going up against a team with a bullpen with an ERA of 4.50 or worse. This situation is 28-8 (77.8 percent) since 1997. Play (924) Kansas City Royals |
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05-10-23 | Astros v. Angels +120 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Angels took this series opener on Monday but gave it back last night in a 3-1 loss as Shohei Ohtani had a solid game but it was not good enough as Framber Valdez pitched a gem for the Astros. Los Angeles is still on a solid 6-3 run over its last nine games and remains two games behind the Rangers in the American League West. Houston picked up a rare win as it has struggled to open the season as it is sitting at .500 but has dropped seven of its last 11 games and the offense has struggled, averaging just 2.9 rpg over its last 12 games. Christian Javier will have a tough time replicating last night but he has been very good with a 3.54 ERA 1 through seven starts but catches a hot offense despite the struggles from Tuesday. Griffin Canning is making just his fifth start since 2021 and the early results have been as expected. He is coming off a poor outing against the Cardinals after allowing three runs or less in his first three starts and a bounce back is on the table. Here, we play against American League teams with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.35. This situation is 39-20 (66.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Los Angeles Angels |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Denver had opportunities in both Game Three and Four to steal a game in Phoenix to have a chance to close out this series at home but now the Nuggets have to take care of their home floor again before heading back to Phoenix which is not ideal but going down 3-2 in this series would be a disaster. In Game Four, Landry Shamet hit four three-pointers in the fourth quarter so it was an unlikely hero that carried Phoenix which remains without Chris Paul as it heads back to Denver with a 19-26 record on the road following two pretty non-competitive games to open this series. The Nuggets have the opportunistic spot in Game Five at home with a short price where they 39-7 on the season and that was after a 6-3 start. Two of the last four losses came without Nikola Jokic in the lineup so this is a very dangerous team at home at full strength. Phoenix is just 9-24 this season as an underdog and its cover percentage of 40.6 percent is not much better and going back, the Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record while the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (548) Denver Nuggets |
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05-09-23 | Red Sox +164 v. Braves | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Boston had an eight-game winning streak snapped with a loss in Philadelphia on Sunday and has put itself into the mix in the American League East after a slow start as it is six games over .500. The Red Sox are 8-8 on the road and catching a big number based on the opposition and not necessarily the starting pitching. The Braves are coming off a series win over Baltimore, their fourth straight series win, but they have been average at home compared to their 16-3 record on the road. Atlanta has gone 6-1 against Miami and Cincinnati, the two teams it has faced at home with a losing record but has gone 2-7 against the three teams above .500. Charlie Morton is off to a solid start with a 3.38 ERA but has allowed too many baserunners and has been fortunate to limit the damage as he has a 1.44 WHIP and he is coming off his worst start as he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings against the offensively challenged Mets that have averaged 2.0 rpg over their last five games. Nick Pivetta has pitched well for the most part as one bad start against the Angels has ballooned his ERA which is at 4.99 but taking that game out and it dips down to 3.71 while his WHIP drops from 1.30 to 1.16. 10* (977) Boston Red Sox |
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05-09-23 | Rockies +152 v. Pirates | Top | 10-1 | Win | 152 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Pittsburgh snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 2-0 win on Monday behind a complete game shutout from Mitch Keller and now the Pirates are a higher favorite in a much less pitching advantage. The Pirates improved to 10-7 at home and the jury is still out on this team. Colorado got handcuffed by Keller which put an end to a 6-1 run that included impressive series wins against the Brewers and Mets where it was underdogs in every game. The offense had come around and it is still middle of the pack overall and can get going tonight. Luis Ortiz is making his first start of the season for the Pirates after getting called up. He made four late starts last year and while effective through seven starts at Triple A this season, he will be reminded of his final start last season where he could not get out of the first inning against the Cardinals after allowing six runs. Connor Seabold is making his second start of the season after a decent showing in his opener, allowing three runs in five innings and while all were three solo home runs, that was in Coors Field. He was effective in four of six starts last and while he had two blowups, those were against the Yankees and Blue Jays. 10* (951) Colorado Rockies |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Star Attraction. We made a bad call on the Warriors in Game Three as they lost by 30 points, the second straight game in this series decided by 27 or more points which is pretty ridiculous at this stage of the season. The are not seeing a line shift at all from the previous game and Golden St. can only improve here after committing 19 turnovers. The last two games where they committed 19 or more turnovers, the responded with a combined 18 turnovers in the next two games and the shooting should only get better as well. Golden St. has been ice cold from the floor, shooting only 42.3 percent from the floor over its last five games which makes this team due for a show and this is the ideal spot to get hot once again after shooting 47 percent or better in nine of its previous 11 games. The Warriors shot 39.6 percent in Game Three and this is a similar spot after coming off a 40.6 percent showing in Game One and shot nearly 10 percent better in Game Two. Los Angeles has been efficient with the ball as it has averaged only 9.7 turnovers per game through the first three games of this series and it is imperative for the Warriors to create more on defense to lead to easier opportunities going the other way. The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (543) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-08-23 | Cardinals +135 v. Cubs | Top | 3-1 | Win | 135 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. St. Louis snapped an eight-game losing streak, it longest skid in 16 years, with a 12-6 win on Sunday over Detroit to provide some much needed momentum. The Cardinals are just 11-24 which is the worst record in the National League but this is a good time to buy low. The Cubs were not able to get the sweep against Miami as they lost the series finale 5-4 in 14 innings on Sunday but the series win put a halt to a 1-6 slide prior to that. Chicago is back to .500 on the season and just one game over .500 at home. Miles Mikolas opened the season with a 10.04 ERA through his first three starts but has pitched well since, posting a 3.13 ERA over his last four outings and has been responsible for two of the last five St. Louis wins since April 15. Marcus Stroman has put together two straight quality outings following a poor game against the Dodgers but those two were against Washington and Miami, two of the four lowest scoring offenses in baseball. Here, we play on National League underdogs hitting between .255 to .269 and .240 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better. This situation is 32-17 (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (903) St. Louis Cardinals |
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05-08-23 | Knicks +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Miami was one game away from not even making the playoffs and is now one win away from taking a commanding 3-1 series lead following one of their best defensive efforts of the season. The Heat allowed just 34.1 percent shooting from the floor in Game Three as New York converted only 31 field goals. The Knicks had a similar game against Cleveland in Game Two where they made only 29 shots but bounced back by shooting 47 percent in a 20-point Game Three win. Miami has now covered six straight games including the first three in this series and we are seeing a subtle half-point swing in this line as the public is continuing to ride the Heat despite still possessing one of the worst cover percentages at home at 40.9 percent. Miami caught a scheduling break between Game Two and Three with three days off which gave Jimmy Butler extra time for his ankle injury to get better but now with just one day in-between, there could be a slight regression. New York comes in at 26-19 on the road so winning away from home has not been an issue and this is a good recovery spot as the Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points while the Knicks are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (541) New York Knicks |
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05-08-23 | Rays v. Orioles +156 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay won again in dramatic fashion as it rallied from a 6-0 deficit against the Yankees to win in extra innings and took the series and extend an 8-2 run to add to its best record in baseball at 28-7. Baltimore is coming off a 6-4 roadtrip that concluded with a series loss in Atlanta but the last two losses were by just one run, a blown two-run lead in the eighth inning Saturday and an extra inning loss on Sunday. The Orioles return home where they are 9-4 after playing 21 of the first 34 games on the road. Kyle Gibson is coming off his worst outing of the season as he allowed six runs over 6.2 innings at Kansas City to balloon his road ERA to 6.04 but he is back home where his ERA is 1.42 in two starts, both quality outings. Shane McClanahan has been unbeatable so far this season as he is 6-0 with Tampa Bay going 7-0 in his seven starts but like the team as a whole, has faced a very light schedule and now squares off against one of the best offenses in baseball. Here, we play against American League teams averaging 5.1 or more rpg and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or better going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better. This situation is 52-40 (56.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) Baltimore Orioles |
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05-07-23 | Nationals +146 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-8 | Win | 146 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Washington is 13-20 to open the season following two losses to open this series and both were attainable. The Nationals have been playing much better since a horrible start as they are 6-6 over their last 12 games and have shown a solid profit of +$3,720 and are catching another good number here. Arizona has won three straight games and it remains just a half-game out of first place in the National League West behind the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks are 10-6 at home but the offense has been stale as they have averaged just 3.8 rpg over their last seven home games and do not have an easy matchup here. Trevor Williams is coming off his best start of the season as he did not allow a run over 5.1 innings against the Cubs and he has been mainly consistent all season. Take out a start against the Mets and he has a 2.70 ERA over his other five outings. Ryne Nelson made three awesome starts after getting the call last fall and opened this season with a 3.71 ERA in his first three outings but has struggled since then as he has posted a 9.64 ERA over his last three starts to go along with a dismal 1.93 WHIP covering just 14 innings. 10* (957) Washington Nationals |
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05-07-23 | Brewers +123 v. Giants | Top | 7-3 | Win | 123 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Brewers are in a slide as they have lost six straight games to drop one game under .500 on the season but remain just a game and a half out of first place in the National League Central as the Pirates have also lost five in a row. Milwaukee blew two different two-run leads Friday and managed only one run in the ninth inning Saturday. The Giants have been very streaky as they went on a 1-7 stretch then won five in a row followed by a four-game losing skid and have now rebounded with four straight victories. San Francisco is still two games under .500 and have done nothing special on either side to be a consistent winner. Adrian Houser will be making his season debut after opening on the IL with a groin injury. He covered five innings and 80 pitches last Friday in his most recent rehab start and was looking good throughout the assignment with a 3.07 ERA over 14.2 innings. He is very solid with a 3.97 career ERA over 76 starts and 30 relief appearances. Ross Stripling is making his third start since coming back from injury and he has been serviceable yet unspectacular, allowing four runs over 8.1 innings and is now favored for the first time this season in four overall starts. 10* (955) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-07-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +3 | Top | 115-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA 2nd Rd Game of the Year. After winning the opener of this series and seizing home court advantage without Joel Embiid, the Sixers have given it right back with two bad losses with Embiid back in the lineup showing just how unpredictable this league can be at times. Philadelphia shot 50.6 percent in Game One but it has gone 62-157 (39.5 percent) over the last two games including 22-67 (32.8 percent) from long range as the Celtics defense has stepped up. But a lot of that can just be attributed to bad shooting, notably James Harden who had an all-world game in the opener and has been non-existent since then and he will be a key piece in order to even this series up. The Boston shooting has regressed in each of the three games and since the Hawks series as they shot 51.2 percent from the floor in the six games against Atlanta and after hitting 58.7 percent of their shots in Game One, the Celtics are just 81-178 (45.5 percent) the last two games and while that is much better than Philadelphia, it is not significant enough to call it dominant. This is a must win for Philadelphia or this series is toast and it is a great rebound spot as the Sixers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (538) Philadelphia 76ers |
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05-06-23 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 97-127 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The NBA playoffs have been anything but dramatic so far this season as of the first 53 postseason games, only six have been decided by four points or fewer. While the probability of the majority of games being decided by well over one possession are always higher, this ratio is absurdly high and has made many games unwatchable. Both of these games have been decided by more than four points although Game One had a chance to come down to the final seconds or head into overtime but Golden St. Missed a game-tying three-pointer with 9.7 seconds remaining. This being said, we are way overdue for a close game and this has the makings of it with the underdog being the favorable play. The Warriors made their adjustments on defense and blew out the Lakers in Game Two as they outshot them 50.5 percent to 42.6 percent and now they hit the road where they have been dreadful but did go 2-2 in Sacramento in the first series. A one possession game either way gets it done. Here, we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a road loss of 10 points or more going up against an opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. This situation is 100-56 ATS (64.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (535) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-06-23 | Yankees +164 v. Rays | Top | 3-2 | Win | 164 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay continues to plug along as after a sweep of the Pirates, it took the series opener Friday 5-4 to improve to 27-6 on the season thanks to playing the easiest schedule in the league. The Yankees salvaged the final two games against Cleveland which snapped a four-game skid heading into this series and nearly came back from a 4-0 deficit. Despite this, they are still one game over .500 and will be live dogs throughout this series. Domingo German has been up and down this season but is coming off his best start of the season as he allowed just one run on two hits over 8.1 innings against the Guardians. This was the third game he has allowed only one run. Drew Rasmussen has been very similar in that he has allowed no runs in three of his outings but has been ineffective in his other three with an 8.36 ERA covering only 14 innings. Here, we play on American League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start. This situation is 38-19 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (911) New York Yankees |
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05-06-23 | Marlins +161 v. Cubs | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. After getting swept by the Braves at home in three games, Miami dropped the opener of this series Friday afternoon 4-1 which comes after a four-game winning streak following another four-game losing streak. The Marlins are still a respectable one game under .500 overall. Chicago snapped a three-game losing streak and a 1-6 run with the victory to get back to .500 on the season and the Cubs are completely overvalued in this game despite having what looks like a significant pitching advantage. Drew Smyly flirted with a perfect game three starts back and he has not faltered from that as he has allowed only three runs over his last two starts to improve his ERA to 2.83 on the season. Bryan Hoeing is making his third start of the season and he is coming off an effective outing last time out as he allowed only two runs on five hits over five innings which also happened to come against the Cubs. Here, we play on National League teams averaging 3.5 or fewer rpg going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better, in May games. This situation is 22-11 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (901) Miami Marlins |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS for our Western Conference Game of the Year. This is exactly what Phoenix did not want as coming into the postseason, it possessed arguably the best roster from a starting standpoint to make a run as it needed to avoid the injury bug that plagued them all season and down goes Chris Paul for the remainder of the series. Now in a 2-0 deficit, things are looking bleak for the Suns and linesmakers have dropped them to +650 to win the Western Conference. Game Two was there for the taking even with Paul out of the game as they entered the fourth quarter up three points but managed only 14 points on offense as they missed their first nine shots and they could not take advantage of a poor game from Jamal Murray who scored only 10 points. Getting to the free throw line only five times the entire game did them no good but we will see an uptick on that as they need to penetrate more and having an extended break of three off days helps them in the game planning with no Paul available. Denver is 4-12 ATS in road games after two or more home wins this season while Phoenix is 13-4 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. Here, we play against road underdogs off three or more consecutive home wins, playing five or less games in 14 days. This situation is 39-16 ATS (70.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (532) Phoenix Suns |
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05-05-23 | Astros +130 v. Mariners | Top | 6-4 | Win | 130 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. After a great stretch where the Astros took two of three against Toronto at home and then went on the road and swept the Braves and then took two of three at Tampa Bay, they came back home and lost both of their series against the Phillies and Giants 2-1. This is the start of a nine-game roadtrip where they are a solid 8-4 overall. Seattle had yet another come-from-behind victory on Thursday against Oakland to make it four straight wins and prior to that, the Mariners rallied from an 8-4 deficit to beat Toronto, they were no-hit through seven innings on Tuesday but rallied for a 2-1 win and Wednesday, they won in extra innings. Christian Javier continues to be very impressive yet has been overshadowed by Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown as he is third in the rotation with a 3.48 ERA but first in WHIP at 1.13 as he has allowed three runs or less in five of his six starts. He just has to avoid giving up the long ball as he has allowed five home runs. Luis Castillo has been more impressive as he has allowed three runs or less in all six of his outings and his 1.82 ERA is tops among starters and this is the reason for the big price despite what looks like a pickem game. 10* (969) Houston Astros |
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05-05-23 | Orioles +190 v. Braves | Top | 9-4 | Win | 190 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. With wins in eight of their last 10 games, the Braves now possess the best record in the National League and now they are finally going to be tested again. The schedule has been very easy and have played only two teams with records above .500, going 3-7 in those games while going 19-3 against everyone else. Baltimore took two of three in Kansas City and has now won 13 of its last 16 games and while its schedule has not been overly difficult either, this is a ridiculous price from a team sitting at a .677 winning percentage. The reason is the form of the starting pitching. Dean Kreamer has only one quality start to his credit but this is something he can shake after posting a 3.23 ERA over 21 starts last season. On the other side, Max Fried has gone three straight starts without allowing a run yet him lone home start resulted in a loss to Houston and that was at a -130 price and he is now way over that. Here, we play on American League underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start. This situation is 21-12 (63.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (977) Baltimore Orioles |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. The Warriors find themselves in an early hole after dropping Game One of this series on Tuesday and while they were able to come back against the Kings in the opening round after falling behind 2-0, those first two games were on the road where they have been awful and they need a big bounce back at home which we are expecting here. Golden St. is 35-10 at home and going back to the Sacramento series, it has lost two straight games here and while the Warriors did drop three straight home games earlier in the season, Steph Curry missed two of those games and Kaly Thompson missed another one. The Lakers got the one game they needed to head back to Los Angeles with home court in hand and they will be up for a challenge here. They are a game under .500 on the road and despite the recent win, they are just 13-22 as road dogs. Golden St. has been ice cold from the floor, shooting only 40.4 percent from the floor over its last three games which makes this team due for a show and this is the ideal spot to get hot once again after shooting 47 percent or better in nine of its previous 11 games. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series. This situation is 31-5 ATS (86.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (526) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-04-23 | Mariners v. A's +222 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Seattle has won three straight games, all of which could have gone the other way. The Mariners rallied from an 8-4 deficit to beat Toronto, they were no-hit through seven innings on Tuesday but rallied for a 2-1 win and last night, they won in extra innings. They are still two games over .500 and are overpriced. Oakland has won only six games this season so taking them is a risk but it is now catching its biggest number at home of the entire season. As bad as it has been, the A's have been right there as over their last five losses, four have come when they have had a lead or tied through eight innings with the other being an 8-7 loss against the Angels where a late rally fell short. Drew Rucinski is making his second start of the season and it was far from horrible, allowing just three earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Reds and after that being his first game in the Majors since 2018, he should be more settled in here. George Kirby has been excellent through five starts, posting a 2.94 ERA and 0.95 WHIP and while he is coming off his best start of them all, he got nothing to show for it and Seattle is just 2-3 in his five outings. 10* (912) Oakland A's |
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05-04-23 | Pirates +172 v. Rays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. After a stretch of 11 wins in 12 games, the Pirates have hit a small bump with three straight losses as the offense has managed only four runs over this three-game stretch. Pittsburgh remains in first place in the National League Central by a game and a half thanks to every other team going through their own issues but at 20-11, it still has the second best record in the National League. After a six-game winning streak, the Rays have gone 5-3 over their last eight games which is certainly good but it shows they have come back a little bit after an historic start to the season. Vince Velasquez is showing his form from his dominant days in Cleveland as he has posted a 1.08 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over his last four starts and the worst of the bunch was at Coors Field and that still resulted in a quality outing. Zach Eflin has been solid since returning from the IL as he has allowed three runs over two starts but he went only five innings in each of those and both came against the White Sox when they were floundering in their 10-game losing streak. This line is based on the Rays season start and not the overall matchup. 10* (917) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-03-23 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-121 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Philadelphia stole the opener of this series and will head back home with home court advantage but that does not mean it will be out to steak another one. The initial reaction is the take Boston in this game in a vital spot to win but once again, there is no value in this number which is nearly identical from Game One because of the absence of Joel Embiid. James Harden had a game and silenced some of the naysayers that he was washed up but he showed that running the offense through him can still be successful. As mentioned in that Game One analysis, the Sixers still possess three star players who can make up for it and while the Embiid production and ability to take over a game will not be there, it can still be distributed as the minutes are not lost and while Harden may not duplicate what he did, Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxie have the ability to step up even bigger. Take Harden out of the stat line and the Sixers still shot a solid 47.5 percent from the floor. The Sixers are now 12-5 this season without Embiid and while each situation is different and the competition is not on this same level each time, Boston has yet to show any sort of killer instinct through seven games of the postseason and Philadelphia should be a tough out again. 10* (521) Philadelphia 76ers |
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05-03-23 | Orioles v. Royals +139 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 139 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. We lost with the Royals last night but as coming back with them here in a good pitching matchup. It has been a rough start for the Royals as they are 7-23 following an 11-7 loss last night and look to turn things around at home as they possess the worst home record in baseball at 1-13 and that will surely come around. Baltimore has won three straight games to remain in second place in the American League East, three and a half games behind Tampa Bay. Both hitting and pitching have been above average as it +30 run differential is third best in the American League. Zack Greinke has struggled over his last two games but those were on the road and he is a totally different pitcher at home as he has a 3.64 ERA in three starts after a 1.91 ERA here last season . Kyle Gibson has dominated in his two home start against Detroit and Oakland but has struggled on the road with a 5.40 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in four starts, three of which were not quality. 10* (968) Kansas City Royals |
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05-03-23 | Twins +119 v. White Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Minnesota lost the series opener in extra innings, wasting another strong pitching performance. The Twins problem last night was taking out Joe Ryan after humming along and tossing only 87 pitches and the White Sox promptly scored two runs from the first two hitters faced in the seventh inning. Chicago has won two straight games following a nine-game losing streak and the White Sox look to get another strong start following a rare solid outing from Michael Kopech. Dylan Cease is the ace of this staff but after a strong start, he has faced over his last two games and while those were both against Tampa Bay, Minnesota has a potent lineup that averaged 6.1 rpg in its previous seven games going into last night. Louie Varland is making his second start of the season following a quality start in his first outing against the Yankees where he struck out eight and brings in a 25:4 K:BB ratio rom AAA. He is filling a spot in the rotation after Kenta Maeda landed on the IL. 10* (965) Minnesota Twins |
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05-02-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers +133 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 133 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. Texas hit a bit of a wall early last week as it lost four straight games by a combined six runs but bounces back to win the final three games against the Yankees by a combined 22-4 score to remain in first place in the American League West. Arizona had a three-game winning streak snapped with a 12-4 loss on Sunday at Colorado and while it looks to have a big pitching advantage tonight, this is not the atmosphere for it. Zac Gallen has been in the zone as after opening the season with two poor outings, he has not allowed a run over his last four starts and has gone 28 consecutive scoreless innings. Three of those were at home with the one road game against a poor Miami offense and now he goes to a true hitters park after avoiding Coors Field. Jon Gray has pitched very well over his five starts with a 3.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP but has just one win to show for it but gets a good matchup against a below average on the road. Here, we play on home teams after allowing two runs or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more. This situation is 29-7 (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (928) Texas Rangers |
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05-02-23 | Orioles v. Royals +137 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. Baltimore has won two straight games to remain in second place in the American League East, three and a half games behind Tampa Bay. Both hitting and pitching have been above average as it +26 run differential is tied for third best in the American League. It has been a rough start for the Royals as they are 7-22 following a long road trip where they went 3-7 and are back home to turn things around as they possess the worst home record in baseball at 1-12 and that will surely come around. Tyler Wells is coming off his two best start of the season but those games were at home and his lone road start was against an equally struggling White Sox team where he allowed three runs in 5.1 innings. Ryan Yarbrough is coming off his first start of the season and it was a good one as he was limited to a pitch count, going four innings and allowing just one run on four hits over 77 pitches against Arizona. Here, we play against American League road teams averaging 5.1 or more rpg and after two straight wins by two runs or less going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse. This situation is 84-51 (62.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (918) Kansas City Royals |
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05-02-23 | Heat v. Knicks -6.5 | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Miami was able to steal Game One of this series and going back to the opening round, it has won four straight games, all as underdogs but expect a different outcome tonight in a much more difficult spot. The Heat took advantage of a sizable edge from the free throw line and they outscored the Knicks 23-12 from the stripe while long range shooting also played a huge part as Miami was 13-39 (33 percent) compared to New York going just 7-34 (20.6 percent). Jimmy Butler has taken over in recent games as he is coming off another solid performance with 25 points and 11 rebounds in a team high 43 minutes despite rolling his ankle and he is now averaging 35.5 ppg in the postseason. He was able to finish the game but it does not look good as he is listed as questionable and while he could go, he will not be close to 100 percent. Overall, New York outshot the Heat 47.7 percent to 42.4 percent and won the rebounding battle by nine boards but the two vs. three pointers were not enough. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are also listed as questionable for New York but the Brunson injury does not look bad and Randle should return after missing Game One as a late scratch. Here, we play on favorites revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. This situation is 68-31 ATS (68.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (518) New York Knicks |
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05-02-23 | Cubs v. Nationals +131 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 131 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Underdog Triple Play. The Cubs had a nice run going as they won 13 of 20 games but went to Miami over the weekend and lost three one run games to fall back to just a game over .500 yet got it back last night with a 5-1 series opening victory. Washington snapped a three-game slide with a win over the Pirates Sunday but gave it back last night as it was shut down by Drew Smyly over seven innings. The Nationals are dogs again with the big reason being their 3-12 record at home. Hayden Wesneski has been a great addition to the rotation after a strong performance last fall in a late callup. He has not allowed more than three runs in five starts but does not go deep as he has just one quality outing, posting a 4.03 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Trevor Williams is coming off his worst outing of the season but it was not horrible, allowing four runs in five innings against the Mets. He came in with a 3.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his first four starts. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start and with a WHIP of 1.00 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 64-40 (61.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (904) Washington Nationals |
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05-01-23 | Suns +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHOENIX SUNS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Phoenix dropped the opener of this series as one bad quarter did it in as the Suns were outscored by 18 points in the second quarter as the other three quarters were played dead even. They outshot the Nuggets 51.2 percent to 47.5 percent but Denver attempted 17 more field goals which was the ultimate difference. The reasons for the disparity were turnovers, as Phoenix committed 16 compared to nine for Denver, and offensive rebounding as the Nuggets doubled up the Suns 16-8. Get those closer to even and Phoenix would have been right in the game but now the Suns find themselves in a big game to avoid a 2-0 deficit and we expect this one to be much closer with a good probability of the outright win. One reason is they have now been acclimated to the high altitude for five days as they now have an additional two days to go along with that one game which was the first one in Denver with the current roster in place. Winning in Denver is not easy as outlined in the Game One analysis but adjustments can be made Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points scoring 114 or more ppg on the season, after allowing 120 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 43-24 ATS (64.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (513) Phoenix Suns |
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05-01-23 | Giants +175 v. Astros | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Ultimate Underdog. Following a five-game winning streak, the Giants have lost three straight games including a pair of game to the Padres in Mexico City over the weekend and they are back to five games under .500. The offense has been the strength and has been peaking with an average of 6.1 rpg over their last seven games. The reigning World Series champion Astros have been playing better but are still just two games over .500 and continue to be overvalued based on the past and the name. Houston salvaged the finale in the World Series rematch which the Phillies, escaping with a 4-3 win Sunday night. Luis Garcia started the season pretty slow with a 7.71 ERA through his first three starts but has dominated over his last two outings, not allowing a run over a combined 13 innings and is due for a regression and is favored by easily his biggest number of the season. Ross Stripling was outstanding with Toronto last season, posting a 3.01 ERA and 1.02 WHIP but it has been a slow 2023. He started in the rotation but was sent to the bullpen for three games and is coming off a short start against the Mets and should be stretched out more here. 10* (963) San Francisco Giants |
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05-01-23 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Star Attraction. The big story here is that Joel Embiid is unlikely to go as he is doubtful with a knee injury but no player is worth a seven-point line swing based on power rating and previous meetings and that is what Philadelphia is getting here. Another recent example what that the Sixers laid only three fewer points against Brooklyn in Game One in his absence and while Boston is clearly a better team than the Nets, the adjustment is too big. They still possess three star players who can make up for it and while the Embiid production and ability to take over a game will not be there, it can still be distributed as the minutes are not lost. Boston got all it could handle against the Hawks and the one good thing for Boston getting stretched out against Atlanta was that it probably woke them up even though they know tougher competition awaits. The Celtics have been dominant at home and won three of the four regular season meetings but we saw what happened when Atlanta was without Dejounte Murray. Here, we play on underdogs after allowing 105 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a combined score of 245 points or more. This situation is 43-18 ATS (70.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (515) Philadelphia 76ers |
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05-01-23 | Braves v. Mets +233 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Divisional Game of the Month. After a rain-shortened game Friday and two weekend rainouts, the Braves and Mets take the field for a Monday double-header with the Mets being the play in Game One in a huge value play. Following the five-inning 4-0 win Friday, the Braves have won four of five following a four-game losing streak. The Mets are 15-12 after losses in five of six games and it actually is not horrible considering the brutal early slate. It has been a tough schedule for New York which has played 17 of its first 27 games on the road. Spencer Strider is coming off a dominant first month of April in baseball as he posted a 1.80 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with a 49:11 K:BB ratio with the Braves going 5-0 in his five starts. They will not be going 30-0 on the season and this is a good spot to go against following two straight rainouts which has pushed him back with the possibility of losing some rhythm. Denyi Reyes has the tough task of opposing Strider and the line is reflecting that. He is making his first start as he has appeared in five games as reliever this season without allowing an earned run. He will not be asked to do much, which is fine with one of the best bullpens in baseball behind him. 10* (952) New York Mets |
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04-30-23 | Warriors +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 120-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA 1st Rd Game of the Year. Sacramento stayed alive by taking out Golden St. by 19 points in Game Six to force the series back home and while it was a lopsided win, it was a fortunate one in which it happened. The Kings caught the Warriors on their worst shooting night of the entire season as they hit only 37.2 percent of their shots and coming into that game, Golden St. was 6-16 in its 22 games when shooting 44 percent or less from the floor and it was not because the Kings suddenly learned how to play defense, which they cannot, it was simply a bad night. Conversely, Sacramento shot only 40.4 percent and it came in 3-13 in its 16 games when shooting 44 percent or less which shows how fortunate it was. In this series, the Warriors had outshot Sacramento in all of the first five games prior to Friday and as long as they do not duplicate that performance offensively, they win this game. We have seen this line flip from the Warriors -1.5 to open and now at +1.5 in most places because of that disheartening home loss and their road struggles this season but this is a veteran team that has gone through playoff adversity before while the Kings are facing all of the pressure. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss against opponent off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (505) Golden St. Warriors |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Miami became just the fifth No. 8 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed in the NBA postseason and while both teams suffered some significant injuries during the series, the Bucks caught the worst of it with Giannis Antetokounmpo missing most of Game One and the next two games completely which put them out of sorts the whole series but the Heat still deserve the credit. Now things will be getting more physical for Miami in what is not a very good matchup as it lost three of the four regular season meetings and were on the wrong end of the rebounding margin three times, all by double-digit boards. After splitting the first two games against Cleveland and snagging home court advantage, it did not take New York long as it won the next three games against the Cavaliers and the Knicks advanced past the opening round of the playoffs for the first time since 2013. New York dominated on defense against Cleveland as it held the Cavaliers to fewer than 100 points in all four victories and can do the same with Miami despite the Heat offense coming to life against a supposedly good Bucks defense. Game One will put that on display. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having won three of their last four games, playing only their 2nd game in seven days. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) New York Knicks |
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04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Phoenix and Denver split the four meetings this season with the Christmas Day matchup that Denver won in overtime being the only meeting with a resemblance of the current rosters in place. The other win in Denver in January was when Phoenix obviously had no Kevin Durant but was also without Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. The Suns won the two matchups at home but the Nuggets were without Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. and yet still stayed close against a full Suns roster and covered the 13 points in both. That gives us not a lot of season matchup history to go off of and the Nuggets have the opportunistic spot in Game One at home with a short price where they 37-7 on the season and that was after a 6-3 start. Two of the last four losses came without Jokic in the lineup so this is a very dangerous team at home at full strength. Phoenix took out the Clippers in five games but it was far from dominating against a depleted Clippers roster and while some of that can be attributed to not giving 100 percent effort, it is still a concern hitting the road. The Suns came into Denver early to acclimate to the high altitude but playing in a game here is a different story. 10* (554) Denver Nuggets |
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04-29-23 | Rays v. White Sox +129 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay continues to roll and Chicago continues to flounder but the White Sox have a favorable pitching matchup after seeing Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin the first two games and catching Drew Rasmussen on Sunday. The Rays have won two straight and continue to lead the American League East at 22-5. The White Sox have dropped nine straight games and have done so every way possible with poor pitching, untimely hitting and some bad luck along the way. This is an action game with two different pitchers being listed in different places as Ryan Faucher will open the game for the Rays with Yonny Chirinos schedule to get the bulk of the innings against the White Sox. Since being called up, Chirinos has not allowed a run in three appearances out of the bullpen and has maxed out at 46 pitches. Lance Lynn has been all over the place as he came into the season as a key part of the rotation but Chicago has gone 0-5 in his five starts but one thing that has improved is after allowing six home runs in his first three outings, he has allowed only one over his last two games. 10* (974) Chicago White Sox |
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04-29-23 | Reds v. A's +141 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Cincinnati had lost six straight games but then pulled off the surprising home sweep against Texas before a day off and then taking this series opener last night 11-7, scoring six runs over the last three innings to cement the victory. It has already been a long season for Oakland as it has now lost four straight games to fall to 5-22 overall and last night was the sixth time over its last 11 games it has allowed double-digit runs. Despite the recent opposite streaks, there is not a whole lot different between these two teams. Hunter Greene throws faster than any pitcher in baseball and he has finally started to use it correctly. He is off to a solid start with a 3.52 ERA but his command is not in top form as he can implode at any time and is in a rare role as a significant road favorite. Kyle Muller opened the season in solid form by allowing only three runs over 10.2 innings in his first two starts but then was hit hard in back-to-back outings against the Orioles and Cubs before a better start last time out at Texas and should get even better against an offense that has overachieved during its winning streak. 10* (976) Oakland A's |
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04-28-23 | Grizzlies +5 v. Lakers | Top | 85-125 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our NBA Star Attraction. We have been on Memphis the last two games as it was able to extend the series with a Game Five win on Wednesday after losing Game Four where it should have won and at the very least came away with the cover as the overtime underdog curse reared its ugly head. It is another win or go home situation for the Grizzlies and they will have to do something they have not done all season and that is win as a road underdog as they are 0-18 in this situation on the season but those past instances can be tossed away with what is on the line here. The LeBron James timeline in this series does say a lot. After Game One, the Lakers has two days of rest for the next two games and James was great in both, averaging 26.5 ppg on 51.2 percent shooting but over the last two games where there has been just one day of rest, he has averaged only 18.5 ppg on 37.1 percent shooting and this is the second consecutive game with travel involved. Since going 3-8 from long range in the opener, he is 3-28 (10.7 percent) from behind the arc. Here, we play against teams as a No. 7 seed in the playoffs. This situation is 171-109 ATS (61.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (549) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-28-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the SACRAMENTO KINGS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Golden St. has made an unlikely comeback in this series, dropping the first two games and storming back to win the last three and head home with a chance to close it out and that is what championship teams do. That being said, the Warriors are laying their biggest number at home of the three games thus far which is creating value on Sacramento in a game all we are asking for is a cover and the Kings are still playing with confidence. The big story from the last game was the status of De'Aaron Fox and his broken finger and his shot was clearly affected as he went just 9-25 from the floor including 3-10 from long range but he has struggled the whole series and now with a game played with that splint on his finger, he has gotten used to it over the last four days. Sacramento has gone 13-17 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog so winning this game outright is far from out of the question. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points averaging 114 or more ppg on the season, after allowing 120 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 42-24 ATS (63.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (551) Sacramento Kings |
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04-28-23 | Braves v. Mets +133 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. The Braves had lost four straight games before taking the first three games against Miami to open a four-game series but lost the finale 5-4 on Thursday in brutal fashion, allowing all five runs in the top of the ninth inning. The Mets had lost four straight games before Thursday and nearly blew a 7-3 lead as they allowed five runs in the top of the eighth but followed that up with a pair of run in the bottom of the inning to pull out a narrow 9-8 victory. It has been a tough schedule for New York which has played 17 of its first 26 games on the road so its average 15-11 record is not surprising. David Peterson is back home after starting four of his first five games on the road and he was shelled in his last two. He was one-third of an inning away from a quality outing in his lone home start against the Padres and catches a good number here. Max Fried has gotten better in each of his three starts since coming off the IL which is the reason he is favored here. He has shutout the Padres and Astros in his last two starts and faces a potent offense that finally came to life yesterday. 10* (906) New York Mets |
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04-28-23 | Guardians v. Red Sox +126 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Underdog Double Play. Boston is in last place in the American League East but playing in the toughest division will do that despite a 13-13 record. The Red Sox are 8-5 over their last 13 games and return home where they are over .500 following a 3-3 roadtrip at Milwaukee and Baltimore. Cleveland is a game under .500 following three straight series losses against teams that will not be competing in their respective divisions in Detroit, Miami and Colorado. The Guardians come in as road favorites based on the starting pitching matchup but that has meant little. Shane Bieber has pitched well as he is one-third of an inning away from opening the season with five straight quality starts. However, he has little to show for it as he is just 1-1 while Cleveland has gone 1-4 in those five games. Nick Pivetta counters for the Red Sox and while his numbers are average, that can be attributed to just one bad start against the Angels. In his other three outings, he has a 2.30 ERA covering 15.2 innings with Boston winning the last two. He has allowed three runs or less in 13 of his last 16 starts going back to last season. 10* (918) Boston Red Sox |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Boston had a golden opportunity to not be playing tonight as it had a 13-point lead with about six minutes remaining but the Hawks closed the game on a 23-8 run to force a Game Six. It was Trae Young that pretty much did it alone down the stretch as he scored the final 14 points for Atlanta and for a defensively sound team like Boston to let that happen is completely out of character. The Celtics outshot the Hawks by nearly seven percent from the floor yet could not come up with the needed stops and the moist frustrating thing for Boston has been the success of the offense that has not given it the results. Over the last four games, the Celtics have shot 52.4 percent from the floor yet have split those games and for the series, they are outshooting Atlanta 51.3 percent to 45.4 percent with the difference being the Hawks putting up 36 more field goal attempts. We are seeing early value here as this one could rise similar to Game Four. Here, we play on road teams revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite of seven points or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (537) Boston Celtics |
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