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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-19-15 | Milwaukee Brewers +165 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 8-1 | Win | 165 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
With Milwaukee taking this opener last night, many will be jumping on the Tigers and we are seeing that already as they are the biggest MLB consensus thus far. The problem is they are severely overpriced so the public is paying. Sure these teams are nine games apart with records but there is more to it than that and while starting pitching is the biggest dictator, these teams are closer than you think tonight. Jimmy Nelson has a 4.22 ERA which is average but his 1.15 WHIP and .232 BAA are better indicators of how he is pitching, which is better than most will think. He has had only one bad starts and his last two games were marred by five home runs allowed, an unusual characteristic for him. Anibal Sanchez has been having a worse season as all of his numbers are worse than those of Nelson yet he comes in as an inflated favorite. The Tigers are 2-5 in Sanchez' last seven starts following a quality outing in his last start while the Brewers are 10-3 in their last 13 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. Here is another good spot for a huge return for Milwaukee. 10* (975) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-18-15 | Cleveland Indians +113 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The Indians were unable to complete the sweep in Texas as they lost Sunday 5-1 with the offense shutting down after scoring 18 runs the previous two games. There are three teams in baseball that currently possess five-game winning streaks and all are unlikely candidates with the White Sox joining the Astros and Phillies. Chicago swept the A's in Oakland and head home with a .500 record for the first time all season. With ace Chris Sale on the hill, getting over .500 seems inevitable but he has been struggling. He is coming off one of his best starts of 2015 where he allowed two runs over eight innings at Milwaukee but had a couple poor outings prior to that and facing Cleveland could bring him back down. Over his last seven starts against the Indians, he has a 6.32 ERA with Chicago losing five of those. Corey Kluber is coming off his best start of the season and nearly made history when he tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just one hit while striking out 18. He is looking for his first road win and going back, the Indians are 19-8 in Kluber's last 27 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (911) Cleveland Indians |
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05-17-15 | Boston Red Sox +145 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
The Red Sox were able to hand Felix Hernandez his first loss of the season and they will be out to win this series and conclude a successful roadtrip that is already a solid 5-4. Pitching has been the key of late as Boston has allowed just five runs over its last four games. The Mariners have been another big disappointment is baseball and after a four-game winning streak to open this homestand, they are just 1-3 their last four games with a nine-game roadtrip looming. Steven Wright gets the call for Boston and while this is his first start of the season, he has effectively already come close to making two starts already. He tossed five innings and allowed just two runs in that 19-inning epic game against the Yankees and then pitched 5.2 innings and allowed three runs against Oakland in relief of an ineffective Justin Masterson. His only starts last season came late against the Yankees and it was a solid one. James Paxton has been very effective lately with three straight quality starts and he has allowed five runs over his last four outings. The problem is the bullpen has allowed 15 runs in those games, thus Seattle is just 1-3 in those games and 2-5 on the season. 10* (977) Boston Red Sox |
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05-17-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets +2.5 | Top | 100-113 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
The Rockets are coming off an incredible comeback in Game Six to force the decisive Game Seven on their home floor Sunday. The Clippers meltdown was shocking as they blew a 19-point lead only to go on to lose by 12 points and the sting of that defeat is going to be hard to recover from. Even more surprising is the fact that Houston got it done without James Harden for the most part who didn't even play in the fourth quarter which shows how dangerous this team is from top to bottom. Houston has won the last two games played here including a 21-point romp in Game Five to keep the series alive and yet are still getting points and in this case, I believe the wrong team is favored once again. The Rockets are a very impressive 35-12 at home and while they have been one of the best teams in the league this season coming off a double-digit loss, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a double-digit win. The improbable series comeback is culminated on Sunday. 10* (752) Houston Rockets |
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05-17-15 | Toronto Blue Jays +138 v. Houston Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
It has been a rough stretch for Toronto which has lost four straight games as the offense has not been able to make up for poor pitching. The Blue Jays are one of just two teams in baseball with losing records that still maintain a positive run differential (+12). Houston has regained its momentum with four straight wins to maintain its lead at 4.5 games in the American League West thanks to the second best record in baseball. We played against Colin McHugh in his last start as we went against an 11-0 Houston streak in his starts going back to last season and that was snapped by the Giants. After getting a ton of run support early, the Astros have given him just four runs total his last two starts and it is safe to say the Toronto bats are due. Mark Buehrle counters for the Blue Jays and while his numbers look poor, that is due to two bad outings including one where he allowed eight runs in 4.1 innings,. He has He has allowed three runs or less in five of seven starts and going back, the Blue Jays are 11-2 in hid last 13 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (971) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-16-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Texas Rangers +122 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The Indians came into Texas last night and defeated the Rangers 8-3 which was a rare win for Cleveland as it is now eight games under .500 on the season. Texas has not been much better, especially at home, but the Rangers are getting some awesome value here based on the pitching matchup. Colby Lewis has been sensational all season as he has allowed more than three runs only once and that all equates to a 2.40 ERA to go along with a 1.02 WHIP through seven starts. His numbers are even better at home and he would have more than one home win if not for the bullpen causing damage in two of his outings, Danny Salazar has been solid as well, just not as much as he is overvalued in this spot. Cleveland has won four of his five starts mostly due to big run support which will be tough to come by tonight. The Indians are 3-14 in their last 17 games following a win while going 1-11 in their last 12 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 14-3 in their last 17 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (924) Texas Rangers |
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05-16-15 | San Francisco Giants +127 v. Cincinnati Reds | Top | 11-2 | Win | 127 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The Giants bounced back on Friday following a loss Thursday in the opener of this series while also snapping a two-game skid. The Reds meanwhile had their three-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and while there is not a lot of differences between these two teams, the home/road splits of the starters are inflating Cincinnati's number. Ryan Vogelsong is coming off back-to-back quality outings at home which I think is bigger than his two road starts on the season that were both pretty brutal. His last one came against the Dodgers, a team that has killed him throughout his career and in his last four starts against the Reds, he has a 2.22 ERA. Mike Leake has been awesome all season for the Reds as he has compiled a 2.36 ERA thanks to five consecutive quality starts. Cincinnati has lost his last two home starts however and this is not the team he wants to see as he has a 7.20 ERA in four career home starts against the Giants. The Reds are 1-5 in Leake's last six starts following a team loss in their previous game. 10* (909) San Francisco Giants |
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05-16-15 | New York Yankees +109 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 109 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
The Yankees were smashed 12-2 last night in Kansas City for their fourth straight loss and they are clinging to a one game lead in the American League East. The Royals meanwhile remain in first place in the American League Central by a game over Detroit thanks to consecutive wins but tonight brings in a questionable number. The dominant days of C.C. Sabathia are history but he is still pretty reliable. He had one bad outing against the Mets this season but he has allowed four runs or less in all six of his other starts and with this being his fourth straight road start, he should feel very comfortable. Additionally, he should be even more comfortable against the royals as he sports a 2.50 ERA in five starts against them since joining New York, all being quality outings. Danny Duffy counters for Kansas City and while he has shown some good signs, he has been hit hard in others. Overall, he has a 5.67 ERA including a 6.00 ERA in four home starts which is certainly nothing to get excited about. Neither is his 8.36 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in four career outings against the Yankees. 10* (921) New York Yankees |
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05-15-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 193.5 | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
After losing this total the last two games, we are jumping on again party to the law of averages but also because we are now really seeing some value and a lot of the same jargon goes along with it. We have now seen the first five games of this series all stay under the number which sets up a great opportunity tonight to see the highest scoring game through the first six contests. The over/under has now moved 4-4.5 points from the last game due the low scoring games that have stayed below the number by close to double-digits each time. Tonight is the lowest of the bunch by over a bucket and the linesmakers are well aware that if they move this number too much, the over could get hammered which would set up a big liability for them. This is only the second time all season that Golden St. has had a total of less than 195 and that game ended up going over the number. While the Memphis defense can be considered a key reason, the Grizzlies are allowing opponents to shooting over 44.1 percent on the season including 45.9 percent at home, both of which are higher than what Golden St. allows. The Warriors offense just has not been in synch this series due to the pace but this is certainly the game to get it going and while the trends for the under are numerous, we will go against all of those and cash in a high scoring ticket. 10* Over (747) Golden St. Warriors/(748) Memphis Grizzlies |
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05-15-15 | Atlanta Braves +121 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 5-3 | Win | 121 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Miami is back home following a pretty poor 4-6 roadtrip and the Marlins are surely glad to be back following a 7-2 record in their most recent homestand. They are just 8-7 at home though and may be a little overpriced here. The current roadtrip has not started well for Atlanta which is 1-5 following a pair of losses in Cincinnati where the bats were pretty quiet. I expect that to be different tonight with a contrarian play against a surprisingly good start by David Phelps of the Marlins. His run in New York was average after a good rookie season but he has been awesome since entering the starting rotation here as he has tossed four straight quality outings. We go against that tonight though and will be playing on Julio Teheran who has been just the opposite. He is coming off two very strong seasons but has been shaky this year through seven starts but he has allowed three runs or fewer in four of those. He has dominated Miami throughout his career and he Braves are 4-1 in his five starts here. Additionally, the Braves are 11-4 in his last 15 road starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (959) Atlanta Braves |
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05-15-15 | Atlanta Hawks +3 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 94-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This game sets up very similar to the Cleveland game last night and I expect a similar result where the much better team is coming off a pair of wins to take control of the series and is getting points in a must win situation for the opposition. Like the Cavaliers, Atlanta wants to end it here even though the final game would be at home where it was dominant all season long. Game Five was obviously a crucial one and the Hawks came away with the last second victory which will provide some serious momentum heading into Game Six. The Wizards were in control of the last game as they held an 11-point lead late in the fourth quarter only to let it go and even though they are back home, that is a tough game to recover from. For as good as John Wall's return was needed in Game Five, how long both he and the Wizards last in these playoffs will hinge on the durability of his hand. Everything seems to be fine but he is not 100 percent and you could see some issues, namely poor shooting and a team high six turnovers. Washington is just 5-10 ATS this season as a short-priced favorite of less than four points and have been pretty poor coming off a loss, going just 14-23-2 ATS. The Hawks meanwhile are 26-14 ATS against winning teams and like Cleveland, they avoid a seventh game and get some much needed rest before facing the Cavaliers. 10* (745) Atlanta Hawks |
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05-15-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates +123 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
The Pirates are coming off a series split against the Phillies after dropping the final two games which snapped an overall four-game winning streak. The Cubs meanwhile are coming off a four-game sweep of the Mets, winning three of those games by one run but they are still five games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central. Jeff Locke will be out for some redemption today as his worst starts of the season came against Chicago late in April where he allowed nine runs in 8.2 innings over two starts. Other than those, he has been very solid and I expect him to get his payback here with a strong effort. Chicago turns to Kyle Hendricks who has not looked as strong as he did last season when he posted a 2.46 ERA over 13 starts. He has thrown only one quality outing as he has been limited to a low amount of pitches and has made it six innings only once. That is a big reason he has not won a game yet this season and the Cubs 4.14 bullpen ERA is a reason Chicago has won just two of his six starts. 10* (951) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-14-15 | Washington Nationals +106 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
Washington won last night to take the series with Arizona and over the last few games, just one bad performance from the pitchers have denied the Nationals a perfect 7-0 record. They allowed 14 runs two games ago but the offense has been the story, averaging 7.7 rpg over its last seven games. San Diego cannot get over the hump as it just a game over .500 and its 9-7 home record in rather unimpressive. We will gladly grab Doug Fister as a small underdog as he has been outstanding once again this season thus far. He has a couple average outings to end April but his other four starts have been quality outings and going back to last season he has allowed more than three runs only five times in his last 30 starts. The Nationals are 12-4 in Fister's last 16 starts following a quality outing in his last start. Tyson Ross has tossed a pair of quality outings after three straight non-quality versions but run support issues linger as he 10 runs over his last four games and his 5.73 home ERA just compounds that. The Padres are 5-11 in his last 16 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (907) Washington Nationals |
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05-14-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers +2 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 94-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Despite winning two of the last three games, the Cavaliers have been unable to cover any of those but that changes tonight as they look to close out this series to avoid going back home for a Game Seven where anything can happen. Cleveland fell behind 2-1 through the first three games but has been able to sneak out two close wins over the last two games to regain control and put itself into good position to make a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. LeBron James is coming off his best game of the series with 35 points and 12 rebounds and most importantly, not a single turnover. This is the time he can literally take over a series and Chicago knows it. The Bulls probably have seen too much of James, who has a 15-5 playoff record against Chicago since 2010 and most of the time, James was the difference. Chicago is ailing with Pau Gasol retaking the court tonight but not close to full health while Derrick Rose is once again dragging, this time with a wrist injury. Going back further, the Bulls have covered six of the last seven meetings this season but that helps us in getting a better line. Additionally, the Cavaliers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (741) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-14-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Philadelphia Phillies +111 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 111 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
The Phillies snapped a four-game skid with a victory last night and I look for them to carry that into this afternoon. Meanwhile, the Pirates had a four-game winning streak snapped as the offense managed just two runs and going back they are 1-4 in their last five games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Aaron Harang gets the ball for Philadelphia and he has been superb through his first 45.1 innings this season with a 2.38 ERA , 1.01 WHIP and a 31:9 K:BB ratio. He has been even better at home as he has a 0.84 ERA in three outings, limiting the opposition to 12 hits in 21.1 innings. Six of seven starts have been quality performances while his last four starts against Pittsburgh have also been of the quality variety. Vince Worley pitched a season-low five innings while allowing five runs and nine hits against St. Louis in his last start. Walks continue to be a problem, as his 3.3 free passes per nine innings are a career high. Additionally, he is getting just 0.67 rpg in three road starts, all Pittsburgh losses, while his 5.40 isn't helping much either. 10* (902) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-13-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors OVER 195 | Top | 78-98 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
We lost with this total Monday but will come back with it tonight with the change of venue probably playing a big role. We have seen the first four games of this series all stay under the number which sets up a great opportunity tonight to see the highest scoring game through the first five contests. The over/under has not moved much despite the low scoring games that have stayed below the number by close to double-digits each time. Tonight is the lowest of the bunch and even though not by much, the linesmakers are well aware that if they move this number too much, the over could get hammered which would set up a big liability for them. The Warriors offense played their best game since the opener and while the Memphis defense will likely try and slow it down, this Golden St. offense is due to bust out at home where it has averaged 112 ppg on 49.3 percent shooting. Obviously, the under is on a role and the trends favor those once again but we will again go contrarian and look for the first shootout in this series. 10* Over (739) Memphis Grizzlies/(740) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-13-15 | Miami Marlins +143 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 143 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The Marlins got blasted last night against the Dodgers which won their fifth straight game and improved to 15-2 at home. That is certainly a tough record to go against but I feel we have an advantage on the mound tonight and we are getting a high quality moneyline as well. We played on Jarred Cosart in his last start and it was got a good call as he struggled against the Giants. Still, he has a decent 3.67 ERA on the season and it is impossible to ignore the fact that he has a 3.31 career ERA over 46 starts and this includes a 2.87 ERA in 16 starts since coming to Miami from Houston. Run support has been an issue for I think the Marlins can get to Carlos Frias. He was fortunate to get stakes to an 8-0 lead in his first start this season and then started leaking oil in his second outing before getting pulled before too much damage was done. The Dodgers won both games thanks to 22 runs scored and we can see how he fares when not getting much offense behind him. This is a meaningful game for Miami to end a three-game skid before heading home. 10* (957) Miami Marlins |
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05-13-15 | Atlanta Braves +132 v. Cincinnati Reds | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The Braves dropped the second game of this series last night to fall to 1-4 on this current roadtrip and they will be out for the series win tonight. There is not a huge difference between these teams as the Reds are just one game better but the line is not saying that. Eric Stults gets the call for Atlanta and he has been pretty steady for the most part. We has coming off a quality outing against Washington, his third over his last four games. The lone exception was as game against the Reds where he allowed six runs in seven innings so he will be out for some payback here. Both road starts this season have been quality outings and Cincinnati is 2-5 in its last seven games against left-handed starters. Rasiel Iglesias counters for Cincinnati and he will be making a second spot start on the season. His first one last month was very average and there is no reason to think a same result won't happen again. He has a 3.80 ERA down in the minors which is pretty average in itself. The Reds are just 1-5 in their last six games following a win. 10* (955) Atlanta Braves |
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05-12-15 | Washington Nationals v. Arizona Diamondbacks +133 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 133 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
We often talk about overrated pitchers and how that affects the moneyline and tonight provides a perfect example. Washington cruised last night to an 11-1 win as it gave Max Scherzer 10 runs in the first two innings and he coasted. Tonight, Stephen Strasburg takes the hill and his name has this price inflated. In six starts this season, he has just one quality outing and that includes going 0-3 on the road. His ERA on the highway is 5.94 which comes as no surprise as his road ERA last season was over a run higher than it was at home. He left his last start early due to a shoulder issue and while he is fine, the Nationals are 2-5 in his last seven starts following an outing of less than four innings in his last appearance. Rubby De La Rosa is coming off his best start of the season as he tossed seven shutout innings against San Diego which was his second straight quality start at home. He has been solid with a 38/10 K/BB ratio overall and this is the first time Washington will face him which is big edge for Arizona. 10* (908) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-12-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets +3 | Top | 103-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
It is obviously must win time for Houston as it trails the Clippers three games to one in this series after getting blown out in consecutive games in Los Angeles. We were on the wrong side in both of those unfortunately but a return home will get the Rockets back in gear and to be able to extend the series at least one more game. Obviously, the Chris Paul injury affected the line in the first two games in Houston but we are seeing a minimum 10-point line swing from then to now and that is absolutely way too much of a variance. The Rockets plan on Sunday completely backfired as Houston's fouling strategy did little to improve its chances as Los Angeles ended up with a playoff-high point total after averaging 116.7 ppg over the first three games. The home crowd will be a much needed edge for the Rockets as they look to improve upon their 34-12 record at home and while they did fair to cover the last game, they are still a solid 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games coming off a double-digit loss. 10* (736) Houston Rockets |
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05-12-15 | San Francisco Giants +149 v. Houston Astros | Top | 8-1 | Win | 149 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
After an incredible, and surprising, start to the season, the Astros have come back down to earth as they have dropped five of their last seven games. They have the best road record in baseball but are just 8-8 at home and are being asked to lay a big number against a quality team that has turned the corner. We played against Chris Heston last Wednesday as he was tagged for five runs in five innings against San Diego but he has been very solid for the most part. Four of his six starts have been quality outings and his only other non-quality performance was followed up by a gem next time out. Houston counters with Colin McHugh who is off to a great start, posting a 3.23 ERA through six starts with the Astros winning all six of those games. It has helped that he has gotten a ton of run support but Houston has scored three runs or less in six of its last seven games so that could shrivel up here as well. Going back to last season, the Astros are 11-0 in his last 11 starts which is a pretty amazing streak but these streaks come with overpriced lines which is the case here and we take advantage of the value. 10* (923) San Francisco Giants |
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05-11-15 | Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 196 | Top | 101-84 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
The top seeds from each conference are down 2-1 in their series and both need to win on the road tonight to avoid a 3-1 deficit which will makes things extremely tough going forward. Memphis has taken the last two games in this series and to no surprise, it is again a home underdog in what is pretty much a must win for the Warriors. We are concentrating on the total tonight however as we have seen the first three games of this series all stay under the number which sets up a great opportunity tonight to see the highest scoring game through the first four. The over/under has not moved much despite the low scoring games that have stayed below the number by close to double-digits each time. While the Memphis defense can be considered a key reason, the Grizzlies are allowing opponents to shooting over 44 percent on the season including 45.8 percent at home, both of which are higher than what Golden St. allows. The Warriors offense just has not been in synch the last two games but this is certainly the game to get it going and while the trends for the under are numerous, we will go against all of those and cash in a high scoring ticket. 10* Over (731) Golden St. Warriors/(732) Memphis Grizzlies |
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05-11-15 | Atlanta Braves +130 v. Cincinnati Reds | Top | 2-1 | Win | 130 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
The Braves lost a tough one yesterday as they allowed two runs in the eighth inning to lose to Washington by a run which capped off the sweep. It was the fourth straight road loss for Atlanta which turns to Shelby Miller to try and break the skid. He had a great season in 2013 with a 3.06 ERA while going 15-9 for the Cardinals but struggled with his curveball last season and posted a 4.29 ERA through 19 starts. He then regained his form and finished strong with a 2.92 ERA in his last 12 starts and he has carried that over into this season with a 1.66 ERA through six starts, five of which have accounted for Braves victories, over a third of their total. Mike Leake has been just as good which is why he is a big home chalk tonight with a lot of that due to recent starts He has posted two straight starts where he has allowed no runs, both covering eight innings which makes this the perfect time to go against him. Going back, the Reds are 1-4 in Leake's last five starts as a home favorite. 10* (953) Atlanta Braves |
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05-11-15 | New York Mets +135 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The Mets took two of three in Philadelphia over the weekend to pull within a game of .500 on the road which is a big reason they are hefty underdogs. The Cubs are struggling after a strong start, losing seven of their last nine games and they hand the ball to Jon Lester, another significant reason they are favored by as much as they are. He has been pitching well in his first season in Chicago and has settled down after a few average outings. Still, it is hard not to ignore his 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP at Wrigley Field through four starts with the Cubs scoring two runs or less three times. Jacob deGrom has a 2.95 ERA this season which is very solid and it could be much better as even that low ERA is skewed by one bad start. His first trip to Yankee Stadium was a disaster as he allowed six runs in five innings and taking that away, he has a 1.71 ERA in his other five starts. He has a career ERA of 2.75 in 28 starts with 21 of those being quality outings. 10* (955) New York Mets |
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05-10-15 | Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 95-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
We lost with the Rockets on Friday as they trailed by as many as 32 points in what resulted in a 25-point defeat. Houston has yet to cover in this series and the line is portraying that with the Rockets getting a huge number today. Losing consecutive games has been a rarity all season for Houston as it is 21-7 on the season following a defeat while covering 20 of those games. Additionally, the Rockets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss. The Clippers covered for just the second time in their last 10 home games and while their 33-13 record at home is impressive, the 26-17 road record for the Rockets is just as impressive so they have the confidence knowing that they can tie this series up on the highway before heading back home. Houston knows full well it cane rebound after all, the Clippers lost by 27 points in Game Three to the Spurs in the first round, falling behind 2-1 in the series only to come back and beat the Spurs in San Antonio in Game Four to even the series. 10* (727) Houston Rockets |
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05-10-15 | Oakland A's +163 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Two of the biggest disappointments square off today and Oakland will be out to avoid a sweep as well as end its four-game losing skid. The fear of going against Felix Hernandez is certainly prevalent but great runs by great pitchers do not go on forever and the A's have an arm of their own that can them in this. Hernandez is 5-0 with a 1.73 ERA which represents the best start to his career and his numbers are even better at home. The issue is that he is getting just 3.0 rpg of support here in three starts so any hiccup will be costly and the Mariners have won just two of his last four home starts against Oakland. Jesse Chavez is making his third start of the season after starting in the bullpen but the rotation is nothing new as he started 21 game last year and was outstanding. Her has a 2.48 ERA over 29 combined innings in his career against the Mariners. 10* (925) Oakland A's |
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05-10-15 | Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 86-84 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
Despite outshooting Chicago and holding the biggest lead of the game at one point, the Cavaliers dropped Game Three of this series and will be in a must win situation to avoid going into a big hole heading back home. The difference last game was from the free throw line as Cleveland wax outscored 25-18 from the charity stripe which was the ultimate difference. LeBron James had an awful shooting game as did Kyrie Irving and like they did in Game Two after Game One struggles, I expect both to pick it up today. The Bulls still have big concerns, with Pau Gasol iffy with a strained hamstring that rendered him unable to play in much of the second half of the Game Three win on Friday night. He is questionable today which further improves Cleveland's dominance down low. The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The line shift from the last game is skewed toward a Cleveland win which is more than expected Sunday. 10* (725) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-10-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies +133 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
The Mets pitching was once again the difference yesterday as they won Game Two of the series. The offense continuers to struggle which makes today a good spot to take the Phillies and Chad Billingsley. He allowed five runs in five innings in his season debut, his first start in over two years because of Tommy john surgery. There is no way he was playable in that one but now with a game under his best, he will be a lot better and the pressure will certainly be less. Bartolo Colon is off to a solid start as he is 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA in six starts. The home/road splits are an issue though as he has a 2.18 ERA at Citi Field but that jumps to 3.66 away from home and his run support is also affected in a negative way when hitting the highway. After a solid start, New York is just 1-5 in its last six games following a win. 10* (904) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-10-15 | Baltimore Orioles +153 v. New York Yankees | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
(If Bud Norris does not start, this is a no action play) The Orioles took the third game of this series and will be out to salvage a series split this afternoon as well as tightening the gap in the American League East. The Yankees have been a pleasant surprise as has Michael Pineda who has yet to shoulder a loss this season. He is 4-0 with a 2.97 ERA through six starts and has allowed three runs or less in five of those. The one bad outing came against the Orioles but his offense bailed him out. Baltimore counters with Bud Norris who looks to keep the momentum rolling after a horrible start to the season. He has tossed two straight quality outings after posting a dreadful 17.42 ERA in his first three starts. The Yankees have only registered an average of 4.5 hits and two runs in each of their past five games against Norris, all being Orioles wins. 10* (919) Baltimore Orioles |
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05-09-15 | Atlanta Hawks -3.5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
After dropping the opener of this series, Atlanta bounced back on Tuesday to even the series and has a chance tonight to regain home court advantage. The Hawks took advantage of a 22-8 edge at the free throw line in Game Two and while they cannot count on that again, they do have the big edge down low. Atlanta's starting front court of DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap and Al Horford combined to outscore the Washington starting frontcourt of Paul Pierce, Nene, and Marcin Gortat 58-27. While the backcourt did not play particularly well, I see that getting better here. The loss of John Wall is huge for Washington and while Ramon Sessions played excellent in his absence, he cannot be consistently counted on the way Wall can be. The line has not shifted in our favor but I do not expect to make a difference as the Hawks are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games against teams with a winning record while the Wizards are 5-23-2 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (721) Atlanta Hawks |
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05-09-15 | Atlanta Braves +135 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
We lost with the Braves last night as Bryce Harper blew the game open with a pair of home runs and five RBI's but we will come back with Atlanta today as it returns to the top of the rotation. Julio Teheran brings a 3-1 record and 3.82 ERA into today and he is just one of two starters to possess three or more wins and account for more than two team wins. He has faced the Nationals a great deal and has held his own with a 3.23 ERA over nine career starts while allowing three earned runs or less over the last eight. The Braves are 13-3 in Teheran's last 16 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Nationals turn to Doug Fister and while he is still an elite starter, he has been pretty up and down this season. He is coming off a 6.1-inning shutout performance against the Mets but did allow four runs in his previous two starts. One huge concern is that he has just 14 strikeouts and nine walks over his five starts. 10* (951) Atlanta Braves |
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05-09-15 | Kansas City Royals +140 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 6-2 | Win | 140 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
This is an contrarian as it gets but the feeling here is that Kansas City bounces back after tough loss last night. The Royals spotted Detroit a 4-0 lead after two innings only to eventually take the lead before losing the game on an error on a sacrifice bunt. Jeremy Guthrie played a big part last season in the Royals playoff push but this year has been a struggle thus far as he has yet to toss a quality outing and is coming off his worst start which happened to come against Detroit. Three of his last four starts against the tigers have been brutal but he has also shown signs of pitching well at Comerica Park where two of his last three outings have been quality starts. Going back, the Royals have won his last four road starts. Anibal Sanchez gets the ball for the Tigers and he would like to match his last start against the Royals where he took a perfect game into the seventh inning before eventually allowing three runs. He has been solid over his career against Kansas City but the Tigers are 1-7 in Sanchez' last eight starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. 10* (965) Kansas City Royals |
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05-08-15 | Houston Rockets +4.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 99-124 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
We often talk about line value and this is a great example of it. Houston lost the home court edge in this series after dropping Game One but it can regain it with a victory tonight and the Rockets are getting an outstanding line on top of it. They were favored by 7.5 points in the first two home games, the second game line was not adjusted due to the Chris Paul injury, which should make them close to a pick or a one-point dog but instead they are getting 4.5 points in some cases. That makes this a ridiculous line swing. Going back to the San Antonio series, the venue switch line swing were all between seven and nine points which is a typical move. Obviously, Los Angeles has a strong home floor where it is 32-13 but the status of Paul is still up in the air as he is questionable. His absence is huge as in Game One, the Clippers turned the ball over 23 times and in Game Two, the Clippers offense moved away from team ball, settling for one-on-one plays and in both instances, Paul would have helped. Even if he does go, he will be far from 100 percent. The Clippers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Rockets are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS loss. 10* (719) Houston Rockets |
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05-08-15 | Miami Marlins +120 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Miami took the opener of this series last night behind another solid pitching performance from Dan Haren and I look for the Marlins to keep that going. The Marlins are a game under .500 but they are 11-4 over their last 15 games. The Giants come in with the same identical record and they have also been playing better after a slow start but things have gone south the last two games. We have tailed Jarred Cosart quite a bit since his days in Houston and while he doesn't get a ton of recognition, it is impossible to ignore the fact that he has a 3.23 career ERA over 45 starts and this includes a 2.58 ERA in 15 starts since coming to Miami from Houston. Despite four starts of allowing three runs or less this season, he has only one win which is due to a lack of run support. Tim Lincecum is coming off his best start of the season and despite a solid beginning to 2015, I'm not sold just yet. He has not posted an ERA of less than 4.37 since 2011 so the jury is still out. The Giants are just 1-3 in his four starts under the lights this season and going back, they are 0-5 in his last five starts following a quality start in his last outing. 10* (913) Miami Marlins |
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05-08-15 | Atlanta Braves +181 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Washington is on the short list of teams that have underachieved thus far and while they are still within striking distance, the Nationals are not a good team to back. They have won seven of their last nine games to inch closer to .500 but the offense remains far too inconsistent. Atlanta comes in on a two-game winning streak and is actually a half-game better than Washington at this point. The Braves turn to Eric Stults who is coming off his worst start of the season after a strong beginning. He allowed six runs in seven innings against the Reds but expect a bounce back as one of his best start this season already came against Washington. Gio Gonzalez counters for the Nationals and he has been hit or miss. He has three quality starts but his first two were followed up by poor efforts. This is not the team he wants to face as going back, the Nationals are 0-8 in his last eight starts against the Braves while also going 0-3 in three career home starts while with Washington. Additionally, the Braves are 4-1 in their last five games against left-handed starters while the Nationals are 4-10 in Gonzalez' last 14 starts against National League East teams. 10* (901) Atlanta Braves |
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05-08-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies +130 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 130 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The Mets have been one of the more pleasant surprises in baseball as they are in first place in the National League East by four games and their 18-10 record is tied for third best in all of baseball. They are a huge public consensus tonight based on their own starting pitching but the opposition cannot be overlooked. The Phillies have been in a tailspin but most of the damage has come on the road and they are a much more respectable 6-6 at home. Matt Harvey has come back after Tommy John surgery at the top of his game as he is 5-0 with a 2.41 ERA in five starts and one of those wins came against Philadelphia last month but it wasn't a particularly sharp effort where he allowed three runs in six innings. Going back, the Mets are 2-5 in his last seven road starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower which typically means he is going against another elite pitcher and that is the case here. Cole Hamels is coming off a poor road start but has been solid at home with a 0.69 ERA over his last two and the Phillies are 8-3 in his last 11 home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (904) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-07-15 | Chicago Blackhawks v. Minnesota Wild -117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Minnesota is coming off a very tough loss in Game Three against Chicago and now has its back up against the proverbial wall. Center Kyle Brodziak used the word "daunting" to describe what's ahead as Minnesota trails the best-of-seven series 3-0. The answer, much in the way the Wild have played since their season was on the brink in mid-January, was focusing only on one game. Of the 180 teams in NHL history that have faced a 3-0 deficit, only four have come back to win the series but the most recent was just last year with the Kings so hope is not lost quite yet. The Wild have to start fast plain and simple as Chicago has scored first in every game. The Wild eventually tied Game One but they have one goal in the past two games against Blackhawks goalie Corey Crawford. While his play has been solid the last two games, let's not forget he was benched for three games in the previous series against Nashville so Minnesota can get to him here. The Wild are 20-6 in their last 26 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game while the home team has won 20 of the last 28 meetings in this series. Look for Minnesota to be around for at least one more game. 10* (4) Minnesota Wild |
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05-07-15 | Baltimore Orioles +120 v. New York Yankees | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The Yankees return home following a series loss in Toronto but they still have a lead in the American League East at two games over Tampa Bay. Not many saw this start coming and because of it, New York moneylines are even more overpriced than they should be. The Orioles lost both games against the Mets to fall a game under .500 following wins in five of its previous six games. Baltimore goes with Chris Tillman today and he has been great against all teams not named Toronto. His ERA against the Blue Jays is 18.00 in two starts but drops to 1.89 in his three other outings. Toronto has been a nemesis throughout his career and while the Yankees were at one point, that is no longer the case. He has tossed five straight quality outings against New York and going back, the Orioles have won seven of his last nine starts against them. The Yankees counter with Nathan Eovaldi who has yet to lose in a Yankees uniform be he has been far from dominant. His 3.81 ERA and 1.55 WHIP are average as he has been unable to deep into games for the most part and he has no decisions in two home starts despite a horrid 6.52 ERA. 10* (967) Baltimore Orioles |
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05-07-15 | Detroit Tigers +108 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 108 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
We lost a brutal game on Detroit last night as the White Sox scored four runs in the eighth inning to pull off the win. While the number isn't as good today, we will back the Tigers again as they are still a slight underdog which may not last so bet it early. Detroit has lost the first two games of this series and will be out to avoid the sweep behind Kyle Lobstein who is having a good season even if his numbers do not stand out. Two of his four starts have been quality outings and his worst start yielded four runs which is far from horrible. In 10 career starts going back to late last season, he has allowed three runs or less eight times and one of his five quality outings came against the White Sox last September. Chicago hands the ball to Carlos Quintana has been either really good or really bad and after two straight quality performances, I am expecting the latter today. The Tigers shelled him for nine runs in four innings last month and going back, the White Sox have lost four of his last six starts against Detroit. The White Sox are 2-8 in Quintana's last 10 home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (963) Detroit Tigers |
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05-06-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets -6.5 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The Rockets opened up a big early lead against the Clippers in Game One as they led by as many as 13 points but costly turnovers and too many missed free throws have put Houston in a whole. Like Cleveland, the Rockets can ill afford to hit the road down 2-0 in the series so they have to take advantage of how important the home floor is and how good it has been to them particularly. They are 33-12 on their home floor and will come out with hopefully the same energy as they did in Game One and be able to sustain it. Give credit to the Clippers as they easily could have folded early in Game One but they hung tough and mounted a big comeback to win comfortably. A lot of that was handed to them however with the Houston miscues and Los Angeles had not better be looking forward to such good fortunes again tonight. Chris Paul sat out the first game with a hamstring injury and he has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight. While some say it may be a gametime decision, it is likely the Clippers will not force it to make it worse especially that they already have a game in hand. The Rockets are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss. 10* (716) Houston Rockets |
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05-06-15 | Chicago Cubs +115 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 6-5 | Win | 115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
With the loss in St. Louis last night, the Cubs have dropped four straight games to fall six and a half games behind the Cardinals in the National League Central. It doesn't help that St. Louis has won eight games in a row and now possesses the best record in baseball. Chicago looks to bust up both streaks tonight behind Jon Lester who has been on top of his game after a rough start with the Cubs. He has a 2.95 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three starts, the last two being quality and both resulting in victories. He was average in his first start against the Cardinals this season but overall he has a 2.00 ERA in four career starts against them. Lance Lynn counters for St. Louis and he has been pretty solid despite one bad start against the Brewers. He has a 3.07 ERA overall but St. Louis is just 2-3 in his five starts as he is receiving only 2.0 rpg of support behind him. Going back, the Cardinals are 1-4 in Lynn's last five starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Look for the streaks to come to an end tonight. 10* (913) Chicago Cubs |
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05-06-15 | Detroit Tigers +137 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The Tigers are coming off a loss in the series opener last night to fall to 4-4 on this current roadtrip but they have won four of their last five games after scoring two runs or less. Chicago halted a five-game losing streak with the win last night but are just 3-5 this year after a win and I expect the chalk eaters to be all over the White Sox because of their ace on the hill. Moneylines are dictated by the starting pitching and we are getting an exceptional number with by far the better team. Chris Sale is one of the best around but he is coming off the worst start in his career and it will be interesting to see how that affects him. He has pitched very well against the Tigers in the past but Chicago is just 5-5 in his last 10 start against them and this is the highest he has ever been favored by against Detroit. Alfredo Simon is also coming off a poor outing but after opening the season with a 1.65 ERA through four starts, I expect him to rebound tonight. Chicago is just 1-5 in its last six games against right-handed starters. 10* (925) Detroit Tigers |
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05-06-15 | NY Rangers -105 v. Washington Capitals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
While it isn't do or die time quite yet for the Rangers, it is getting there as falling behind 3-1 to the Capitals would put them in a very tough place even though two of the final three games are at home. The Rangers were shutout in Game Three at Washington which is a rarity but the good news is that they have won their last four games this season following a shutout. New York has not made things easy on itself as it has participated in 10 consecutive playoff games decided by one goal which is an NHL record and what makes it most surprising is that in seven of its eight games in this year's playoffs, New York has allowed two goals or fewer. That shows the offense has been pretty tame and in the eight postseason games, the Rangers have tallied just 15 goals but this looks to be the spot where the offense finally gets going. Washington has done a great job of keeping that Rangers offense in check and especially to goalie Braden Holtby pitching the shutout Monday but he has allowed an average of 3.0 gpg this season in his next start following a shutout and that could be all the Rangers need. They are 28-7 in their last 35 games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game and 38-15 in their last 53 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (75) New York Rangers |
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05-06-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +121 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
We won with the Phillies two nights ago and will back them again here after getting blanked last night in Atlanta. The Braves have lost 14 of their last 22 games after a 5-0 start and while they won yesterday, they are 0-8 in their last seven games following a win. Jerome Williams has not been lights out but he has been pretty efficient for the most part as he has allowed three runs or less in four of his five starts. He came to Philadelphia late last year and thrived back in the starter role which he picked right up again this year. In 14 starts with the Phillies, he has a 3.24 ERA which includes a 3.19 ERA on the road. He tossed a quality start against the Braves in his first outing against them this season. Mike Foltynewicz defeated the Reds in his 2015 debut on Friday, surrendering three runs (two earned) on six hits over his five innings of work. It was a decent outing but far from overpowering as her issued three walks while striking out just two. The Phillies have averaged five runs in three games following getting shutout this season. 10* (909) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-06-15 | Cincinnati Reds +142 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 3-0 | Win | 142 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
The Reds got back to .500 with a victory last night and they are on an 8-6 run following a dismal stretch after opening the season 4-0. Pittsburgh lost for the fourth straight game as the offense has completely shut down, scoring just five runs over that stretch. Mike Leake will look to take advantage of that lethargic offense as he has been on a solid run. He opened the season with a pair of non-quality starts but has put together three straight quality outings while posting a 1.93 ERA in the process. Two of those resulted in Reds losses as run support against Adam Wainwright and Jon Lester was minimal. The Pirates send Gerrit Cole to the hill and he has been outstanding as he has yet to lose while posting a 1.76 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in five starts. Pittsburgh has won his last four games and those starts were all quality ones but he faces a Cincinnati team he has never beat while posting a 4.50 ERA in three career starts. The Pirates have excelled in Cole's home starts going back to last season but they are getting a little too much credit with this line today. 10* (907) Cincinnati Reds |
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05-06-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 | Top | 91-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
The Bulls cashed a ticket for us Monday as they led wire-to-wire and took advantage of a Cleveland team that was without two key contributors and was on an eight-day layoff. The Cavaliers will still be without Kevin Love, who is gone for the season, and J.R. Smith, who is serving the second game of a two-game suspension but I expect the home team to bounce back here. The Cavaliers had won 22 of their previous 23 home games but shockingly never even led in Game One as it was an offensive clinic for the Bulls for the better part of three quarters, despite the score not reaching triple digits. They shot 50 percent from the field and 56 percent from three-point range, turning the ball over just 10 times and totaling 23 assists. That type of efficiency will be nearly impossible to duplicate tonight. On the other side, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving combined for 49 points, but it was on 19-for-45 shooting. It was the first time in James' storied career that his team never led in a home playoff game, a span of 85 games so I expect him to take over tonight in what he even called a horrible game played by himself. The Cavaliers have already lost home court advantage so going down 2-0 in the series would be detrimental. 10* (714) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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05-06-15 | San Diego Padres +122 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 9-1 | Win | 122 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
The Padres look to salvage one game after losing the first two games by not scoring a single run. The Giants are on a roll with five straight victories and their last three wins have all come by way of a shutout, a span covering 27 consecutive innings. Ian Kennedy opened the season against the Giants but lasted just 2.1 innings after injuring his hamstring and was put on the DL. He did not make a rehab start and was shelled by the Dodgers but settled down in his last start which was a quality performance against the Rockies where he won his first game of the season. In five starts against San Francisco since coming to San Diego, he has a solid 2.22 ERA. Chris Heston gets the start for the Giants and he has been a great addition to the rotation. He has tossed four quality outings in five starts and there is not a whole lot of negative to put on him but this is one of those situations where the pressure of the shutout streak gets to him. Going back, the Padres are 12-4 in their last 16 games after losing the first two games of a series. 10* (905) San Diego Padres |
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05-05-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
Memphis led very early against Golden St. on Sunday but fell behind shortly thereafter and could not recover. The Grizzlies didn't play bad overall as many of the numbers were equivalent to those of Golden St. but the difference of the game was from behind the arc as the Warriors nailed 13 three-pointers while Memphis was just 3-12 from long range, and that will have to improve even though the Grizzlies are not known to be a big three-point shooting team. We are playing the bounce angle here with Golden St. covering Game One as Memphis is getting a little bit of added value and even though the Grizzlies did not cover the first game, this is just the second game they have been double-digit underdogs all season. Memphis was without Mike Conley in Game One but he is expected to be back tonight and his presence is big on both sides of the floor. He's a great backcourt defender and the defensive communication system involves Conley relaying play-calls not to mention the fact he led the team with 107 three-pointers on the season. The Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss while the Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win. 10* (711) Memphis Grizzlies |
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05-05-15 | Anaheim Ducks v. Calgary Flames +116 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 116 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
While the term-must win gets thrown around a lot, sometimes it is appropriate and that is certainly the case here with the Flames tonight. After losing the first two games of this series on the road, Calgary cannot afford to fall down 3-0 against Anaheim as it will be all but done. Anaheim has won five of the seven meetings this season but the home ice has played a big role in that as the Ducks are 4-0 at home while Calgary was able to win two of its three games at home so it can use that tonight to get back into the series. As loud and energetic as the Saddledome was for Calgary's first home playoff game since 2009, it should be equally electric for its first second-round game since 2004. Something will have to give here as Anaheim has won six straight road games while Calgary has won five straight home games. Three of those Ducks wins were against non-playoff teams and all six were against teams no longer competing and while the same can be said for Calgary's streak, it has been more dominant in putting it together and going back further, the 5-0 in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (72) Calgary Flames |
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05-05-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Milwaukee Brewers +153 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
The Brewers rallied from a 3-0 deficit against Clayton Kershaw to pull off their third straight win and the first for new manager Craig Counsell. That is the type of win that can lead to a big run and Milwaukee certainly needs it after dreadful start to the season. The Dodgers had their four-game winning streak snapped and the home/road splits are the biggest variance in baseball when it comes to winning percentage as the home team is 20-5 in their games this season as they fell to 3-7 on the highway after last night's defeat. The Brewers have allowed just 11 runs over their last five games and looks to continue that despite Matt Garza being far from strong. He put up a couple poor efforts against the Rockies and Pirates but his other three starts have been good with two being quality outings and the third missing by just a third of an inning. His last two were the quality performances and this is his first ever career stat against the Dodgers, a big edge. Zack Greinke is known for being awesome at home and average on the road but he has yet to allow a run on the road in two starts. That changes here though as he has a dreadful 5.40 ERA against his former team including an 8.10 ERA in his former park. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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05-05-15 | Miami Marlins +160 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 2-1 | Win | 160 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The Marlins lost a tough one last night as they allowed four runs in the eighth innings to fall to Washington 6-4 in the series opener. Miami has given up six runs in back-to-back losses after winning nine of 10 games prior to that where it allowed a grand total of 18 runs over that 10-game stretch. The Nationals are playing better after a dreadful start to the season as they have won six of their last seven games with both offense and pitching coming around at the right times. It will be up to Mat Latos to try and shake off a tough start to the season as his seven-start winless stretch going back to last season is tied for his second-longest in his career. He was horrible in his season opener but hasn't been bad since, posting a respectable 3.98 ERA over his last four starts. Latos got the Nationals a win in his first start against Washington last month and has a career 2.68 ERA over eight starts against them. Stephen Strasburg has an ERA of 4.60 though five starts with only one of those being a quality outing. He struggled against Miami earlier this season and possesses a 4.44 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Marlins. 10* (951) Miami Marlins |
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05-04-15 | Chicago Cubs +134 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
The Cardinals made it a tough weekend on us as they won again yesterday over the Pirates, the second time we lost in extra innings with Pittsburgh and St. Louis swept the series all in extra frames. Certainly there will be some sort of emotional letdown here and the Cubs will be out to end their two-game skid from over the weekend. Chicago turns to Travis Wood who has looked very sharp of late after a rather poor opening outing. He has a 2.37 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over his last three starts and he has received nearly seven rpg from his offense. While he has been up and down against St. Louis in his career, he has the best Cubs team behind him that he has ever had. Carlos Martinez has been a pleasant surprise in the rotation as he has opened with four straight quality performances and the Cardinals have taken all four games. This is just his 13th career start and I don't think this is quite reality however and he is bound to come down to earth sooner rather than later. Taking nothing away from his hot start but he has yet to face a winning team while his last two stats came against teams a combined 16-35. 10* (907) Chicago Cubs |
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05-04-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +136 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 5-2 | Win | 136 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The Phillies snapped a three-game skid with a win over Miami yesterday and they look to carry that into Atlanta for this series opener. It has been a rough start for Philadelphia overall but it is getting a solid number here against a team that is struggling as well., The Braves have lost 13 of their last 20 games after a 5-0 start and while they won yesterday also, they are 0-7 in their last seven games following a win. After opening the season with four straight quality starts, Aaron Harang got hit hard last time out, allowing five runs on nine hits in six innings against St. Louis. He dominated the Braves once this season, has tossed four straight quality outings against them and the Braves are 5-11 in their last 16 home games against right-handed starters. Alex wood is also coming off a poor outing where he too allowed five runs but he is getting too much credit here considering Atlanta has lost his last four starts. Overall, his numbers are suspect as along with a 4.03 ERA, he has a 1.50 WHIP and a 20/11 K/BB ratio in 29 innings. Going back, the Braves are 0-6 in Wood's last six starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (903) Philadelphia Phillies |
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05-04-15 | Chicago Bulls +5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 99-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The time off did not affect Golden St. as we thought it might but it was the Memphis lack of production from long range that was the big difference Sunday. Cleveland is going through a similar situation as it has not played a game in eight days and it will have to take the floor tonight without two key players as Kevin Love is done for the season while J.R. Smith is suspended for the first two games of this series. That will leave the Cavaliers in a tough spot to try and find somewhere to make up for that lost production and the fact they have to been able to do anything but practice is a detriment. Chicago had a 3-0 lead on Milwaukee but could not close it out early and actually got taken to six games where the Bulls won the series thanks to a 54-point Game Six drubbing. They have had three days off which is a good break as it allows rest but not too much to have the rust settle in. Chicago has to take advantage of its solid defense that has been a lot better since all of the regular starters have been back in place and will have to take advantage of its big advantage in the frontcourt. Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after a win . 10* (703) Chicago Bulls |
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05-03-15 | Tampa Bay Lightning v. Montreal Canadiens -124 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Tampa Bay was a surprising winner in Game One of this series based on it being on the road against a quality home team. On the flip side, it was not a surprise considering the Lightning have dominated the Canadiens this season as the victory was the sixth straight win in the season series after a sweep during the regular season. We are paying a higher price today than what Montreal was favored by in the first game but it is still well within reason so we have no issue laying it in Game Two. Tampa Bay is no doubt a motivated bunch right now after getting swept by the Canadiens in last year's playoffs but I expect Montreal to step up Sunday on its home ice where it is still a very solid 28-17. Despite the victory, the Lightning are 11-31 in their last 42 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while Montreal looks to improve upon its 41-20 Eastern Conference run and with six of those losses coming against today's opponent, there will be plenty of effort to avoid a 2-0 deficit heading out on the road. 10* (62) Montreal Canadiens |
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05-03-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks +144 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Arizona lost a tough one for us last night as it took a 4-3 lead into the seventh inning only for the bullpen to blow the lead and take the Diamondbacks to their second straight defeat in this series. As stated before they have caught a break in taking on the bottom of the Dodgers rotation and they can take advantage again today. Chase Anderson gets the ball for Arizona and he is still in search of his first victory despite not pitching bad. He is coming off a poor start against Colorado but prior to that, he put up a 3.00 ERA in his first three starts and that included an Arizona win over the Dodgers at home which also came against today's opposing hurler. Brett Anderson had his best start of the season in that game against the Diamondbacks but he has gone downhill since then, posting a 5.93 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last three starts, none of which qualified for a quality outing. The offense has bailed him out over his two home starts despite his 4.66 ERA and while that offense has produced in the majority of this homestand, today could be the day it does not come out. 10* (961) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-03-15 | Memphis Grizzlies +10 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 86-101 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Memphis and Golden St. had pretty similar paths to this Western Conference semifinal series as they were both able to coast without much trouble. The Grizzlies took care of Portland in five games while the Warriors swept the Pelicans in what was a tougher than expect series despite being able to win all four games. Golden St. ended its series on April 25th, right when Memphis was still only playing Game Three and that is a big factor in my opinion. The Grizzlies have had three days off which is sufficient rest this time of season while the Warriors have been off for a week and that is a detriment as rust can certainly settle in. These teams played here back in mid-April and Golden St. did win the game but it came by just four points as an eight-point favorite. So while we are not only getting an added basket here, this is the most amount of points the Grizzlies have gotten this season. The Warriors are right at .500 against the number as double-digit favorite and I think is way to much to be laying against a quality opponent. Additionally, they are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a victory. 10* (701) Memphis Grizzlies |
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05-03-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates +145 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
The Pirates have dropped consecutive games against the Cardinals by identical scores of 2-1, both of which went into extra innings. It is frustrating to Pittsburgh having allowing only five runs over the last three games but is just 1-2 over that stretch. St. Louis meanwhile has won five straight games and sends Michael Wacha to the hill who is coming off a poor outing against the Phillies but was able to win thanks to his offense that gave him 11 runs. He is off to a 4-0 start through four outings which is obviously a big reason the Cardinals are favored by the largest price in the series so far. They are just 1-5 in Wacha's last six starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Pittsburgh turns to Vance Worley to try and avoid the sweep and while his numbers aren't great, he has not been horrible. He opened the season poorly against the Brewers but he has a 3.06 ERA over his last three starts which are one run and one third of an inning short from being three quality outings. The Pirates are 5-0 in Worley's last five starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (957) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-02-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks +142 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
We lost with Arizona last night but will come back with the Diamondbacks in what I feel is another good spot with value against a bottom-tiered starter. Scott Baker will be making his second start in a Dodgers uniform and his first one was surprisingly good as he allowed three runs on four hits over seven innings against the Padres. Baker struggled in 2014, posting a 5.47 ERA in 80.2 innings for the Rangers and he has made only 12 starts since 2011. This is an untrustworthy pitcher that should not be favored this big Jeremy Hellickson will be making his fifth start of the season and he has been all over the place but a lack of run support has caused him to press which is never a good thing. The Diamondbacks are giving him just 2.0 rpg but that should change tonight and Hellickson will be able to keep Arizona in it and hand the Dodgers a rare home loss. 10* (913) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-02-15 | Colorado Rockies +135 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Colorado got pounded 14-3 last night with most of the damage taking place in an eight-run eighth inning. The pitching has been abysmal as the Rockies have allowed 35 runs during their three-game losing streak but Jorge De La Rosa will be out to turn that around. After a horrible opening start, he settled down by allowing just two runs on four hits over five innings against the Giants last time out. That first game he allowed seven earned runs which came against the Padres so he will be out for redemption and it should happen at Petco Park where he owns a career 2.68 ERA over nine games. The Padres counter with Brandon Morrow who has been outstanding since coming over from Toronto as he has a 2.67 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in four starts, all Padres wins. Throwing in a pitchers park helps but I'm not sold on him yet and this is a great time to fade, especially with the big price tag. 10* (911) Colorado Rockies |
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05-02-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -2 | Top | 109-111 | Push | 0 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Home court has not been an advantage in this series as the road team has won four of the first six games including the last three following a Clippers win in San Antonio to send the series back here for a decisive Game Seven. I think the home floor will be a big edge tonight however and the Clippers take the series with bookend victories. Despite two straight wins here by San Antonio by identical 111-107 scores, Los Angeles is still 31-13 at home on the season while the Spurs are just four games over .500 on the highway. This is the second straight year that the Spurs have had to play a first round Game Seven. The Spurs went on to win their fifth championship last season after defeating the Mavericks at home, but San Antonio is just 1-3 in Game Seven's on the road in their history. Going back, they are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The game should be an entertaining one and we will see the Clippers advance into the second round. 10* (552) Los Angeles Clippers |
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05-01-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks +143 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
The Dodgers are the biggest public consensus play tonight and while the public isn't always wrong, we catch a great number with the chalk eaters lining up once again. We often talk about rotations and while Los Angeles has one of the best top ends of the rotation, when we get down to the bottom and the Dodgers are still laying a big price, that is the time to strike. Arizona is coming off a disappointing 3-5 homestand but did take the final two games against Colorado with the offense exploding for 21 runs and I like the fact the Diamondbacks can take that into this series. They have not fared well against Los Angeles over the last couple seasons but even looking at just the recent pitching matchups will tell a big story why. Tonight they will face Carlos Frias who is making his first start of the season after two relief appearances. He was recalled to take the spot of Brandon McCarthy and while initially put into the bullpen, he is making his third career sp[ot start. His first was great last September but was followed up by allowing eight runs on 10 hits in less than an inning against the Rockies and that has to still be in his head. The Diamondbacks counter with Rubby De La Rosa who was shelled to start the season but has posted a solid 3.20 ERA over his last three starts and facing the Dodgers for the first is a big edge. 10* (961) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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05-01-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates +129 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
After sweeping the Diamondbacks in Arizona last weekend to make it a five-game winning streak, the Pirates dropped two of three to the Cubs but at least ended the series with a convincing 8-1 win on Wednesday. This is a big series as the Pirates are 3.5 games behind St. Louis in the National League Central which means this game is a huge swing game to open things up. The Cardinals took the final three game against Philadelphia after losing the series opener and they now possess the best record in the National League. They have dominated this series at home going back the last two years but that is just giving us a more favorable number to work with. A.J. Burnett gets the ball for Pittsburgh and he is off to a great start following a horrendous season with the Phillies last year. He has a 1.80 ERA through four starts, the last three being quality efforts but he has nothing to show for it as he remains winless with run support being the problem. While the offense will have its hands full tonight, they are ready to bust out for him. Lance Lynn is the reason the Pirates are in for a tough time but he is coming off his worst start in quite some time and Pittsburgh hasn't exactly been his friend as he has a 4.71 ERA in 13 career starts, his worst ERA by far against any team he has at least 10 starts against. 10* (959) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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05-01-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets +4.5 | Top | 111-87 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is the final series that is still going on in the Eastern Conference and that is a surprise for sure as the Hawks entered as the No. 1 seed but are on the brink of a possible Game Seven on Sunday. You have to give credit where credit is due and Atlanta had an outstanding regular season but the Hawks are arguably one of the weakest top seeds in the NBA playoffs that we have seen in quite some time. Their run in January has to be commended but ever since a loss at Philadelphia in early March, they have been average at best, going 14-12 over their last 26 games. Atlanta failed to cover the first four games of this series but cashed in Game Five by a single point as a nine-point favorite and come in overpriced once again. The Nets are hanging tough and their 15-9 over their last 24 games is solid. They were close to putting Atlanta in a tough hole but were on the wrong side of a 10-2 run to end the game on Wednesday and while the home floor has not been great this season, the Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. Atlanta has not covered a road game since April 8th which coincidentally came here when it won by three points as a 4.5-point underdog, showing how far this line id off once again. 10* (538) Brooklyn Nets |
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04-30-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 206 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
We have seen the last two games of this series fly over the total but with a lot at stake tonight, I see a much lower scoring game and we are getting value on top of it. Game Four closed with a 202.5 total and Game Five closed only slightly higher at 203 but now we are seeing a three-point shift from Tuesday to now and a lot of that is based upon the results of the last two games. We talk about the bounce angle in the playoffs and while it is typically used for the pointspread, the shifts in the over/unders make it a valuable totals tool as well. The most recent example came in the Atlanta/Brooklyn series where the first three games all stayed under the total but Game Four easily eclipsed the number and even though there were three straight games that went under, the likelihood of three straight games going over here is a lot less. While both Los Angeles and San Antonio are considered high scoring teams, and that is a fact, the linesmakers know what they are doing which is a reason that both teams have seen the under cash at a high clip this season. The under is 7-2 in the Clippers last nine games coming off a loss and 11-5 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been a higher scoring team when playing poor opposition and they are 9-17 to the under this season when favored by fewer than six points. 10* Under (535) Los Angeles Clippers/(536) San Antonio Spurs |
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04-30-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Minnesota Twins +144 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 144 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The White Sox fell to Baltimore yesterday in an empty Camden Yards and now they hit the road again to take on Minnesota in a four-game set. They are having a pretty inconsistent season at 8-10 including win in just two of nine road games but here they are laying a massive number on the highway which is solely based on the starting pitching matchup which is the leading indicator to these moneylines. Minnesota blew a 7-3 lead last night against Detroit to lose the series as the bullpen allowed seven runs after starter Phil Hughes left the game after five innings with a left hip flexor strain. That is not good news for an already thin Twins starting rotation but look for Trevor May to continue his solid run tonight. He opened the season with a rough outing against the Royals but has since posted a 2.89 ERA over his last two starts. His last game was cut short after he was hit by a line drive but he is fine and takes a 2-0 career record against the White Sox into tonight. The White Sox have typically dominated Chris Sale's starts in this price range but most of those have been at home. They have won 17 of his last 21 starts when favored between -151 and -200 but only three of those games since the start of the 2013 were on the road and Chicago went only 1-2 in those games. 10* (912) Minnesota Twins |
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04-30-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +167 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
The Phillies lost for us last night as a four-run fifth inning by the Cardinals chased Aaron Harang and sent St. Louis to consecutive wins. This is a good opportunity for Philadelphia to bounce back though as we talked about facing the back end of the St. Louis rotation yesterday and the Cardinals are digging even deeper today. To no surprise, the Cardinals are a huge public consensus today based on the top line pitching numbers but digging deeper givers us a better understanding. You look at David Buchanan and you must winder what we are thinking but he has actually been pretty solid over his last two starts. He opened the season with a pair of rough outings against the Red Sox and Mets but is just an inning away from posting consecutive quality outings. He is coming off his best start of the season, holding the Braves to two runs on three hits in 6.2 innings and going back to last season, he has allowed three runs or less in 18 of his last 20 starts including two against the Cardinals where he posted a 2.13 ERA over 12.2 innings. Overall, he posted a 3.16 ERA over his last 16 start last season. Tim Cooney makes his Major League debut today and the Phillies will see an opposite pitcher than they saw yesterday in Carlos Martinez as Cooney tops out at 88 MPH with his fastball. 10* (901) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-29-15 | Portland Trailblazers v. Memphis Grizzlies -5.5 | Top | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This game sets up strikingly similar to the Dallas/Houston game last night and I think the result will be just the same. The Blazers played with some pride on Monday as they made a late push in the fourth quarter to win and cover and avoid the four-game sweep to the Grizzlies. Additionally, they also snapped their seven-game losing streak to Memphis. Now they head back out on the road where things have not been good recently as they have dropped six straight, both straight up and against the number and this has been a bad situation all year as Portland is 2-9 ATS this season as an underdog of five or more points. Going back further, the Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Grizzlies would like to wrap it up at home and avoid another trip to Portland which would also take time away for additional rest. The Grizzlies have won and covered their last four home games and they have also covered their last four games following a loss. In Game Four, the Blazers outrebounded Memphis 50-40, had a 22-9 edge in second-chance points and a 40-38 advantage in points in the paint, three statistical categories the Grizzlies excel in so we will see a reversal at home. The Grizzlies will still be without Mike Conley who is coming off surgery for fractured bones in his face and while he will be missed again, Memphis has the depth to take care of this. 10* (528) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-29-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +168 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Obviously, Philadelphia and St. Louis are on different levels from each other but tonight brings up a solid scenario that we often take advantage of While the moneyline is telling us this is a mismatch, it isn't that way because of the starting pitching and not just because of the numbers. The Phillies send their number two starter to the hill while the Cardinals are at the bottom of the rotation with theirs and that is where the hidden value can often be. After winning Monday, Philadelphia's Severino Gonzalez got shelled in his Major League debut but now it turns it over to Aaron Harang who has been outstanding thus far. He has started off with four consecutive quality starts with the Phillies going 3-1 in those games. While some pitchers struggle against certain teams, Harang has just had bad luck against the Cardinals as he has gone eight straight starts without his team beating them despite seven of those where he allowed three runs or less. The bottom of the rotation for St. Louis goes to Carlos Martinez but he is not pitching like it as he is 3-3 in quality performances with St. Louis winning all three of his games. I don't think this is quite reality however and he is bound to come down to earth sooner rather than later and that could very well be tonight. The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five games following a loss while the Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (959) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-29-15 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers +166 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
The Mariners will be looking for a rare road sweep in Texas and with their ace on the hill, chalk eaters are lining up for that to happen. This is the time to go against them however as we have value and situational angles on our side. Seattle has won the first two games with solid pitching as it has allowed just one run each but the offense continues to struggle as it has scored three runs or less in six of its last seven games. Granted, the Rangers offense has not been much better and facing Felix Hernandez isn't the best time to try and break out of that but this is the one team and the one ballpark he has trouble with even after Texas was a top team. Hernandez has tossed three quality outings in four starts this season with all of those being at home and the lone non-quality performance came on the road at Oakland. He has made 43 starts against Texas, the most against any team and his ERA is an average 3.96 which includes a 4.26 ERA at Rangers Ballpark. The Mariners are 4-10 in Hernandez' last 14 starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Wandy Rodriguez got his Texas career off to a great start as he allowed just one run on five hits at Los Angeles against the Angels. They did not get the win but the outing was very encouraging and despite this being a hitters park, he has pitched great here in his career. Additionally, the Mariners are 2-6 in their last eight road games against left-handed starters. 10* (976) Texas Rangers |
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04-28-15 | Houston Astros +157 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 14-3 | Win | 157 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
The Astros continue to win and they continue to get shaded with the odds. They are now 12-7 overall and have a three-game lead in the American League West following their fourth straight victory last night. Houston has been an underdog in 14 of 19 games and continues to be dogged tonight and in a big way for that matter as the line is once again based on name and expectations, not by reality. San Diego is off to a good start at 11-10 but after making some major offseason moves, the Padres are not where they should be or want to be but are still having overadjusted lines going against them. They have one of the best run differentials in baseball but that is only because of two games they won by a combined 19 runs. Houston turns to Roberto Hernandez who has added a solid veteran leadership to this young starting rotation and despite still not having won, he is pitching solid. He has put together two straight quality starts against the Angels and Mariners and while his numbers going back to last season are not eye-popping, he has allowed three runs or less in 15 of his last 16 starts so he is giving his team chances to win. Tyson Ross counters for the Padres and after opening with two straight quality efforts, he has slipped in his last two starts and while they weren't horrible, they were far from efficient. His control continued to be an issue as he has walked 16 batters and while he is better at home, the Astros have won five straight against right-handed starters. 10* (929) Houston Astros |
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04-28-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins +149 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 149 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with the Twins last night as they spotted Detroit a 4-0 lead only to end up a run short in the 5-4 loss. I like their chances for a bounceback tonight and we are dealing with basically the same line despite what I feel is a bigger advatnage in the starting pitching matchup. After a 1-6 start to the season, the Twins are showing signs of life with a 7-5 record over their last 12 games which obviously isn't dominating but as underdogs, it is very solid. The Tigers have won three straight games to maintain their half-game lead in the American League Central over the Royals. Despite the win last night, the Tigers pitching has been atrocious of late, allowing a total of 44 runs over their last seven games and I can see the struggles continuing tonight. Anibal Sanchez is coming off a solid effort against the Yankees but still could not win despite being at home where he is at his best. He was roughed up in his lone road start this season at Pittsburgh and going back to last season, only two of his 10 road starts have been quality outings. He has had great success against Minnesota but that is mostly at home as he has tallied just 11.1 innings in his last three starts in Minnesota, all Tigers losses. Mike Pelfrey has strung together two solid starts, allowing just one run over 12 innings against the Royals and Indians. He has been battered in Detroit but has been strong at home, posting a 0.79 ERA in two starts, both resulting in wins. 10* (926) Minnesota Twins |
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04-28-15 | Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets -7 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The Mavericks avoided playoff elimination and getting swept by the Rockets with a 12-point win on Sunday and they look to keep the momentum rolling on Tuesday but I just do not see it happening. Last night, Milwaukee was able to parlay its Game Four win in a Game Five road win which shows it can be done by teams backed up against a wall but this has been a very unfavorable spot for Dallas all season and the worst in the entire NBA by a longshot. They are 0-12 ATS this season when getting four or more points so not only have they not been winning, they haven't been competitive against teams that are given a sizable edge. Those 12 losses have come by an average of 14.7 ppg and only one defeat was by less than what Dallas is getting tonight. On top of that, injuries are never an excuse for losing, and the Mavericks certainly aren't making excuses, but there comes a time when a team suffers so many injuries that it becomes compromised and that is the case here. The Rockets want to close this one out at home and avoid going back to Dallas because anything can happen with two games left and the Rockets want some time off before starting the second round. Houston is 32-11 at home and has dominated in the favorite role. Additionally, the Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss. 10* (518) Houston Rockets |
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04-27-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trailblazers -3 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
Three series are in the books as Golden St., Cleveland and Washington have all advanced following 4-0 sweeps in their series. Dallas was the only team to avoid a sweep thus far as it beat Houston yesterday and now it is up to Portland to avoid an early exit. The Blazers played tow absolutely horrible games in Memphis and we backed them to get it done in Game Three at home but came out slow and never even had a lead. The Blazers are now 32-10 at home which is the fourth best home record in the NBA and now it is all about pride and then hope for some magic going forward. Motivation will be no issue as Portland will try to solve the Memphis dominance over them as they have lost all seven meetings this season to the Grizzlies while not even covering one of those. Overall, Portland has lost seven straight games while not covering any of those and the Grizzlies have six straight covers. Their issue is that Mike Conley is out tonight and will likely be out for a while following bad facial injuries. The Grizzlies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. We go contrarian once again here as the Blazers are able to extend the series for at least one more game. 10* (514) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-27-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins +155 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The Tigers and Twins meet for the second time this season after Detroit swept the first series by outscoring Minnesota 22-1 in the three-game set so the Twins will be out for some payback. While the recent roadtrip did not start out good, the Twins were able to win both games against Seattle over the weekend to make it a 3-3 trek and after a 1-6 start to the season, they are showing signs of life with a 7-4 record over their last 11 games. Detroit is coming off a 10-game homestand and hits the road for the first time since April 15th and going back, the Tigers are 2-7 in their last nine road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Davis Price is a big reason the moneyline is so high and after his horrid start last time out, chalk eaters are jumping all over him here to rebound. Last year, he had a good but not great season after coming over from Tampa Bay with a 3.59 ERA in 11 starts and he did not look good during spring training by posting a 5.76 ERA in six starts. He did dominate Minnesota in his first start this year but allowed five runs in 5.2 innings at Target Field last year in his only start here. Tommy Milone Has been pretty solid as a couple bad pitches here and there have cost him but he brings in a 3.38 ERA over three starts. The Tigers do not scare him as he has never lost to them while posting a 2.83 ERA in five career starts. 10* (976) Minnesota Twins |
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04-27-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 195.5 | Top | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
After dropping the over in this one Saturday, we are coming back with it again for all of the same reasons and we are seeing even greater value now. We have seen the first three games of this series go under the total but I expect that to change tonight. While the over was never even in jeopardy during the first three games, we are seeing a shift in the total which we can take advantage of. Game One closed at 205, Game Two closed at 202.5 and Game Three closed at 199 and we are seeing a similar shift into Game Four. It is also interesting to note that these two teams played in April during the regular season and those totals were also higher that what we are seeing tonight and those gamers resulted in easy overs, posting 230 and 225 points. Atlanta has a combined offensive and defensive shooting percentage of 90.2 percent while Brooklyn has a combined shooting percentage of 90.3 percent with offense and defense and anytime you can get two teams that are both over 90 percent, as long as the pace is in our favor, we have a great chance to surpass the total. Going back, the over is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 road games while the over is 12-4 in the Nets last 16 games following a win. 10* Over (509) Atlanta Hawks/(510) Brooklyn Nets |
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04-27-15 | Tampa Bay Lightning -105 v. Detroit Red Wings | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Saturday was the third time in less than a month that Tampa Bay was shut out by Detroit which happens to be the only times all season that the Lightning have been blanked. They bounced back with victories in the next game the previous two time and will be out to do so again tonight which will extend the series and send it back to Tampa Bay. Obviously, the Detroit defense is doing something right especially with two shutouts over the last three games but I am expecting a Lightning adjustment which results in a big offensive response. Tampa Bay averaged a league-high 3.16 gpg en route to a team-record 108 points this season and I do not see it quietly going down without a fight. With the offense struggling to score, the Lightning likely need a strong performance from Ben Bishop between the pipes. He has a 2.22 GAA in the series and while four goals were allowed last game, one was an empty net goal and he has not allowed more than three goals in 18 straight games including giving up two or fewer in 11 of those. Going back, the Lightning are 5-1 in their last six games following a loss of three or more goals while the Red Wings are 1-9 in their last 10 games following a win while going 2-10 in their last 12 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (19) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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04-26-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Arizona Diamondbacks +136 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Arizona lost another tough game on Saturday to make it two straight defeats to start this series with the offense coming up small, scoring just one run in each of those games. The bats have either been awesome or they don't show up this season as they have scored two runs or less seven times but also have tallied five runs or more seven times. The Pirates are now two games over .500 as they have won four straight games and they turn to Francisco Liriano whose career has turned around even since coming to Pittsburgh. He has yet to win this season though and the Pirates are 0-3 in his three starts as a lack of run support and a poor bullpen behind him have held him in check. He has been much better at than on the road however and going back to last season, the Pirates are 3-7 in Liriano's last 10 road starts against teams with a losing record. Jeremy Hellickson has been on a downhill trend since 2012 but he is coming off his best start of the season and picked up his first win in a uniform other than Tampa Bay. Look for him to carry that forward today. 10* (910) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-26-15 | Houston Astros +142 v. Oakland A's | Top | 7-6 | Win | 142 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
While the Mets are the biggest surprise in baseball this season, the Astros are quietly getting it done as they have won six of seven to remain a game and a half up on the Angels in the American League West. They are big dogs again here simply because they are the Astros. A completely rebuilt lineup in Oakland is starting to show as the A's have dropped three straight games and seven of ten. Asher Wojciechowski takes the ball for the Astros and while he struggled in his first start by allowing four runs in four innings against the Indians, he came back with a solid effort after that as he allowed just two hits and no runs in four innings of long relief against the A's. He put up a similar effort like his first start against Seattle last time out but the offense bailed him out and now he faces the A's again so his confidence level should be high. Oakland goes with Drew Pomeranz who is off to a very similar start by allowed four runs in each of his first two starts. So why is he such a big favorite? Because it is Oakland against Houston which is considered a public mismatch and partly because of his surprising success last season when he entered the starting rotation. 10* (925) Houston Astros |
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04-26-15 | Texas Rangers +133 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 5-4 | Win | 133 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
The Rangers offense has disappeared the last two games but I think that changes Sunday as they look to salvage the final game of this series against the Angels. Texas put up 22 runs in its previous three games but has managed only three runs in the two games against Los Angeles. The Angels have now won three in a row and are big favorites once again simply because of the name on the front of their jersey. We won with Nick Martinez in his last start in Arizona as he tossed his third straight quality outing to open the season. Some will call it a fluke but he closed last season by allowing two runs or less in his last six starts and he also shined early in the season by posting a 2.75 ERA in April and May. In four starts against the Angels, he has a 2.51 ERA and 0.91 WHIP including a dominating performance already this season. Hector Santiago has been very solid for the Angels over his last two start, allowing two runs over 13 combined innings. He has put up very solid career numbers but he has been dismal at home against the Rangers the last two years, allowing five and six runs over starts. 10* (923) Texas Rangers |
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04-26-15 | Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 114-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
This has been a horrible first round of the NBA postseason as far as entertaining value and betting on our part as the public is absolutely cleaning up right now. Four playoff series are sitting at 3-0 with another already in the book with Golden St. sweeping the Pelicans. This is one of the two series that are still interesting at 2-1 and with Atlanta/Brooklyn being the other, this one has the ability to be the best of the first round. After winning the opening game, the Clippers lost at home against San Antonio in Game Two in overtime and then they put up their worst offensive performance of the season by far in Game Three but that should be a huge motivator today. From a value standpoint, we are on the right side as this line is a point and a half higher than it was on Friday based on the lopsided 27-point victory for San Antonio. The Clippers have lost two straight games for just the third time since early February and even after Friday, they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games. This line has entered a good range for them as well as they have covered three of four games this season as underdogs of six or more points and the underdog is still a potent 11-5 ATS the last 15 meetings in this series. 10* (503) Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-26-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox +117 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 117 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
The Royals won the opener of this series Friday and they now have a game lead over Detroit in the American League Central and their 12-4 record is second best in baseball. They have won five straight in this series including all four meetings this season and the series will resume after some very wet weather the last two days. As mentioned yesterday, I like the pitching matchup for this one for the White Sox and additionally, they are 11-3 in their last 14 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. John Danks has gotten off to a slow start but he hasn't been horrible. He allowed four runs in each of his first two starts on the road but bounced back with a quality effort last time out against the Indians at home. He allowed four runs against the Royals in his season debut which snapped a string of nine straight quality outings against Kansas City. He squares off against Edinson Volquez who has been awesome in his first three starts in Kansas City, posting three quality starts in three tries. His last two have been against the Twins however and his worst start came on the road in Minnesota. This will be only the second time these White Sox have seen Volquez but the first time was just two weeks ago which is big. 10* (922) Chicago White Sox |
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04-26-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers +137 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 137 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
The Brewers had a golden opportunity yesterday when Adam Wainwright left the game after four innings but the offense could not muster enough against the Cardinals bullpen. I like their chances today to grab the series finale. The starting pitching has been a surprise for the Brewers which includes Mike Fiers getting knocked around thus far. It was a surprise because he did not allow more than three runs in any of his 10 starts last season where he posted a 2.13 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 71.2 innings. In five starts and two relief appearances against the Cardinals, Fiers has a 1.62 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with four starts being quality outings. His start against them missed quality status by a third of an inning. Lance Lynn counter for the Cardinals and he is off to a great start by allowing just one run in each of his first three starts. St. Louis however has given him no run support and has lost both of his road starts and has dropped his last five road outings and going back, the Cardinals are 3-7 in Lynn's last 10 starts as a road favorite. 10* (908) Milwaukee Brewers |
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04-25-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Portland Trailblazers -2.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
It has been an unprecedented postseason thus far and teams covering the spread and been continuing to do so. In the eight playoff series, the team that covered Game One has an incredible 11-3 ATS record going forward throughout the series so playing the team off a cover has been very lucrative thus far. Followers know that I am not one of those we are more contrarian than anything and there is a very good chance this evens out before it is all said and done so we will keep riding the bounce angle. Two series can be closed out tonight and we will avoid those as it is hard to gauge how those teams down 3-0 will respond but we will be backing the Blazers which are down 2-0 to Memphis and coming off two horrible games on the road. The Blazers fell to 19-24 on the highway but they head home with a 32-9 record which is the fourth best home record in the NBA and they can get right back in this series. Motivation will be no issue as Portland will try to solve the Memphis dominance over them as they have lost all six meetings this season to the Grizzlies while not even covering one of those., This is as contrarian as it can get and we see the Blazers responding in a big way tonight in front of their home crowd. 10* (752) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-25-15 | Texas Rangers +149 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
We lost with Texas last night as it blew a 2-0 lead over the Angels and fell by a run but I like the chances of a rebound tonight as the Angels are again overpriced. The Rangers have dropped two straight while Los Angeles has won two in a row and there is not a whole lot separating these teams right now as far as offense and pitching but the name recognition is what is driving this line as well as an overrated C.J. Wilson. His best days are well behind him and he has been unable string together solid performances for a quite a while now. He tossed a quality start at Houston last time out but allowed six runs in 5.2 innings against Kansas City in his lone home start this season. He has had serious trouble facing his old team as it is just as much mental as anything right now as he has a 7.36 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in eight starts against Texas. Colby Lewis goes for Texas and he has been very efficient following a poor season a year ago. He won his opener in Oakland and while the Rangers have dropped his last two starts, he faced off against Dallas Keuchel and Felix Hernandez, currently 2nd and 6th respectively in the American League in ERA. The Angels are 4-11 in their last 15 games against right-handed starters while the Rangers are 10-4 in Lewis' last 14 road starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (975) Texas Rangers |
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04-25-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers +154 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Milwaukee already trails the Cardinals by nine games in the National League Central so it is no surprise that St. Louis is the biggest public consensus on the board for Saturday. Milwaukee could not capitalize from its win on Thursday against the Reds but I like the bounceback opportunity here and wee get to back them at an outstanding home underdog price. The Cardinals are 1-6 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. What we have seen from Wily Peralta over the last two starts is an aberration in my opinion as he was very solid a season ago and opened this year with a quality outing against the Rockies. His last start was hindered by two bad pitches, both resulting in home runs which let to five total runs. Facing the Cardinals may not seem like the place to bounce back but he wasn't awful against them earlier this season and last year, he posted a 2.18 ERA against them in five starts all of which were quality. The Brewers are 5-1 in Peralta's last six starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Adam Wainwright is one of the top pitchers in the game and it is obviously reflected in the line here. He has opened with three straight quality outings but this is not his favorite place to pitch as over his career, his four losses are tied for the most at any opposing ballpark. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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04-25-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 200.5 | Top | 83-91 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
We have seen the first two games of this series go under the total but I expect that to change this afternoon and we are getting value on top of it. While the over was never even in jeopardy during the first two games, we are seeing a shift in the total which we can take advantage of. Game One closed at 205 and Game Two closed at 202.5 and we are seeing a similar shift into Game Three. It is also interesting to note that these two teams played in April during the regular season and those totals were also higher that what we are seeing tonight and those gamers resulted in easy overs, posting 230 and 225 points. Atlanta has a combined offensive and defensive shooting percentage of 90.4 percent while Brooklyn has a combined shooting percentage of 90.6 percent with offense and defense and anytime you can get two teams that are both over 90 percent, as long as the pace is in our favor, we have a great chance to surpass the total. Going back, the over is 4-1 in the Hawks last five road games against teams with a losing home record while the over is 5-1 in the Nets last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Over (745) Atlanta Hawks/(746) Brooklyn Nets |
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04-25-15 | Washington Capitals v. NY Islanders -124 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Three teams can clinch their series on Saturday including two home teams, Chicago and Calgary. The lone home team with their backs against the wall are the Islanders which are down 3-2 following consecutive losses to Washington after grabbing a 2-1 series lead. There is no need for any more motivation for the Islanders but we can expect one of the best home ice edges you will ever see as this is very possible the final game at Nassau Coliseum which has played host to the Islanders since their inaugural season in 1972-73. The Islanders need to find a way to get their power play going after going 0 for 12 in the series, one reason they've been held to four goals over the last three games. They finished fourth in the NHL with 2.99 gpg and their 133 goals scored at home were the third most in the NHL. Look for greater offensive output today. The Islanders lost their home game in this series in overtime despite outshooting Washington 37-30 and going 0-4 on the power play was a huge part of it. Despite that loss, the home team has won seven of the nine meetings this season and that continues today which sends this series back to Washington for a decisive Game Seven. 10* (6) New York Islanders |
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04-24-15 | Texas Rangers +177 v. Los Angeles Angels | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
As mentioned yesterday with the Royals/White Sox writeup, starting pitching dictates the moneylines in baseball and that is the case here along with name recognition. Name recognition being the Angels known publicly as a strong team and one that is dominant but that is hardly the case this season as they come in with a 7-9 record and by no means should be laying this kind of lumber which is by far the largest of the season. Going back, the Angels are 0-6 in their last six games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Texas is hanging around with a 6-9 record which obviously is not great but in the dismal American League West, they are right in the thick of the division, just two games out. The Rangers are 4-5 on the road but because of the big underdog factor, they are up money and they are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss. Wandy Rodriguez makes his Rangers debut tonight and he is making his first MLB start since last May. Rodriguez has performed well in two minor league outings with the Round Rock Express, totaling seven innings while allowing two runs and recording ten strikeouts. Garrett Richards counter for the Angels looking to repeat last year's start. He tore the patella tendon in his left knee last August and did not pitch in spring training so it is going to take him a while to regain his form. This is definitely the time to go against him, especially at this price. 10* (923) Texas Rangers |
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04-24-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Arizona Diamondbacks +130 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
This line doesn't make a whole lot of sense if you ask me. Arizona is a game over .500 on the season and comes in as a healthy home underdog and we will take advantage. Looking at a comparison, the last time Josh Collmenter started at home, he was an underdog against the Dodgers and Zack Greinke which shows this line is inflated with no disrespect to Gerrit Cole. The Pirates got off to a horribly bad start but have been better with wins in five of their last seven games and they closed their roadtrip with a 6-4 record. Pittsburgh hits the road for the first time since April 12th where it is just 2-4 through six games on the highway. Cole has been very solid as he followed up a non-quality outing at Cincinnati with a pair of quality efforts against the Tigers and Brewers. Both of those were at home however where the Pirates are 11-2 over his last 13 starts. The road has been a different story as the Pirates are just 6-6 in his last 12 roadies while going 2-5 in Cole's last seven road starts against teams with a winning record. As for Collmenter, he pitched decent in that games against the Dodgers, missing a quality start by an inning and he followed that up with a four-hit shutout last time out. Arizona went 10-6 in his 16 home starts last year and the Diamondbacks are 9-3 in his last 12 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (912) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-24-15 | Toronto Raptors +5 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 99-106 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The Raptors have put themselves into a big hole, losing both games at home to open the series and are now forced to win one road game to stay within reach and forced to win two road games to claim home court back. This is one of seven of the eight playoff series where one team has at least a 2-0 edge which has made for some of the worst postseason basketball we have seen in years. Making it even worse it the bounce angle has fallen flat this season with San Antonio being the first team to cover following a cover loss the previous game. That Spurs cover could signal a turnaround after the angle opened the playoffs a dismal 0-8 ATS. The big issue for Toronto in the first two games was the play, or lack thereof, from Kyle Lowry. He scored just seven points in Game One and then put up only six points in Game Two prior to leaving the game with a shin injury. Even though he did not return, the injury is not considered serious and he will be back tonight but it is imperative for him to produce like he did during the regular season, averaging 17.8 ppg. Despite the cover last time out, the Wizards are 4-23-2 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. A change of atmosphere could help the Raptors which have covered five of their last six trips here. 10* (741) Toronto Raptors |
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04-24-15 | Pittsburgh Penguins +168 v. NY Rangers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The Rangers are squarely in the driver's seat in this series with a 3-1 lead and they have a chance to close it out tonight. The puck is going their way right now and this series has been so close that the Penguins could feasibly have a 3-1 game lead heading into tonight or at the very worst, a 2-2 split. Because every game has been decided by just one goal, the 3-1 lead is a little skewed but the moneyline is still based on that record and the Rangers are laying the highest number not only in this series but the highest number against Pittsburgh in years. I don't think it is warranted at all as the Penguins have a excellent chance to steal another game at MSG. And Pittsburgh knows first hand that winning this series is not out of the question. Of the 275 teams in league history facing a 3-1 deficit, the Rangers were the 27th and most recent to rally, knocking off the Penguins in seven games in last season's second round. The Penguins are 4-1 in their last five road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and going back further, they are 98-48 in their last 146 after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (81) Pittsburgh Penguins |
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04-23-15 | Chicago Blackhawks v. Nashville Predators -110 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
After splitting the first two games at home to open this series, Nashville could not return the favor as it lost both games in Chicago including a brutal triple overtime loss on Tuesday to fall down 3-1 in the series. Obviously tonight is a must win game and while we often see lines being inflated because of that, we are not seeing it here as the line has actually gone remained roughly the same as the first two games that were played here. The Predators struggles that go beyond this series are playing a big role in that but heading home in their most important game of the season can offset the poor run. They have gone just 1-9 over their last 10 games overall but they snapped a five-game home losing streak with a victory in the last game played here, a 6-2 statement game that has unfortunately lost some of its luster after two straight losses in Chicago. Through the series' first four games, both teams have scored 13 goals and both have allowed 10 goals while playing 5-on-5 and Nashville has out hit Chicago in three of four contests and both out blocked and out shot the Blackhawks in all four games. This shows they are the possible better team here but don't have a lot to show for it. Look for the Predators home ice edge and the energy created by their fans to let them stay alive in this series for at least one more game. 10* (78) Nashville Predators |
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04-23-15 | Kansas City Royals +131 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 3-2 | Win | 131 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is the perfect example of how starting pitching dictates moneylines in baseball and these are the spots to take advantage. The Royals lost last night against the Twins but they are still off to a great start at 11-4 which is good for a tie with the Tigers in the American League Central. Kansas City has already swept the White Sox this season and while that was at home, winning on the road is no issue. Chicago took two of three against Cleveland to open the week and improve to 4-2 at home on the season. This is not a good team though and going back to last season, the White Sox are 8-20 in their last 28 games following a win. Chris Sale gets the ball tonight for Chicago and he is the reason the line is as big as it is. He is solid no doubt but as dominant as he has been, Chicago is just 31-27 since the 2013 season and that is overall unprofitable based on being pegged as the favorite the majority of the time. The offense has surprisingly given him a ton of run support but I don't see it happening tonight. Yordano Ventura is coming off a poor outing in his last start against Oakland and that means bounce back here. He allowed five runs or more twice last season and came back in his next start by posting two quality outings, both resulting in Royals wins. He has beaten Chicago once already this season and going back, the Royals are 7-0 in Ventura's last seven road starts. 10* (973) Kansas City Royals |
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04-23-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +3 | Top | 113-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
We are 0-2 on the Bucks in this series and we will back them tonight at home as they look to get back into this series. One of my arguments for Milwaukee has been its defensive presence during the regular season as it was fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and led the league in forcing turnovers. Game One was not a good one for the defense but the Bucks improved immensely in Game Two sans for not being able to contain Jimmy Butler. Take away his numbers and the rest of the Bulls shot 33.9 percent and with the series shifting to Milwaukee, this is a game it can steal. Chicago has won and covered six straight games and that is playing with this line as based on the venue change, this game should be around a pickem based on the lines from the first two games in Chicago. Instead, we are seeing only a 4.5-point swing which given even more value to the Bucks tonight. The Bulls have now won nine straight home games but are just 4-9 in their last 13 road games while the Bucks are 27-16 ATS this season following a loss. The Bucks ended a nine-game home losing streak to the Bulls with a 95-91 victory April 1st so the confidence from that knows they can get back into the series tonight. 10* (736) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-23-15 | St. Louis Cardinals +119 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 119 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Chalk eaters will be all over Washington in this game after losing last night and having Max Scherzer on the hill today but I am not one of them. The Nationals were the overwhelming favorites to win the National League East and not even taking the Mets hot start into consideration but the Nationals are just not right. They are a game under .500 as the pitching has been solid but the offense has been offensive to say the least, hitting just .226, ninth worst in baseball. St. Louis has a game and a half lead in the National League Central and while its offense has been better, the pitching is the real story as its 2.14 ERA leads baseball by a wide margin. The Cardinals six-game streak of allowing two runs or less was snapped last night but a new one can start today behind Michael Wacha. He has been solid through two starts, posting a 1.35 ERA by allowing just one run in each outing. He has faced Washington twice and has been dominant, allowing just one run over 15.2 innings. The Cardinals are 5-1 in his last six starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Scherzer has gotten off to a great start in Washington which is no surprise but he lost to the Mets in his debut and has had the luxury of facing the Phillies in his last two starts so now he goes against a real offensive test. The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last six games against right-handed starters. 10* (963) St. Louis Cardinals |
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04-23-15 | Atlanta Braves +115 v. New York Mets | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Third time is a charm right? The Braves blew a late lead last night which sent to the Mets to their 10th straight victory which is one away from matching the longest winning streak in franchise history. No one saw this coming but give New York Credit as the offense has been bailed out on numerous occasions by the pitching that is currently second in baseball at 2.80. After a hot start, the Braves have dropped two straight games and five of their last seven to fall three and half games behind the Mets. Julio Teheran is just the pitcher to put an end to all of the streaks. He is coming off a tough outing last time out where he allowed five runs in five inning in Toronto but we can chalk that up as an anomaly as he allowed a career high four home runs. He allowed just one run in each of his first two starts and Teheran was the last pitcher to beat the Mets on April 11, giving up one earned run, two hits and four walks over six innings of a 5-3 home win. He is 4-2 with a 2.45 ERA in eight career starts against New York. Bartolo Colon takes the hill for New York and he is once again surprising everyone with a 3-0 start to go along with a 2.25 ERA. He can become the sixth starter 40 years or older to start 4-0 since 1914 but he has not strung together four straight quality starts since 2013. The Mets are 0-4 in Colon's last four home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (955) Atlanta Braves |
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04-22-15 | Anaheim Ducks v. Winnipeg Jets -123 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Like Ottawa, the Jets are down 3-0 in their series with Anaheim following an overtime loss on Monday. While the Senators have had a 1-0 lead in each of the three games against Montreal, Winnipeg has been even better but has nothing to show for it. The Jets have led in the first three games for more than 65 minutes to Anaheim's 11 and were arguably the better team in two of the three games so far, including the overtime defeat Monday night at MTS Centre. It is obviously do or die for Winnipeg which came into the series as a sleeper to take down Anaheim and while it has played well enough to do so, the scoreboard has proven otherwise. The Ducks have now won seven straight in this series including all six this season after taking the three games during the regular season. Even two of those had to be decided in extra time so luck has just not been on the Winnipeg side against this opponent. Only four teams in NHL history have come back from a 3-0 series deficit to win it but adversity is nothing new for the Jets, and they have no choice but to embrace the situation they have fallen into. Expect another loud environment tonight in Winnipeg as the noise was deafening at times. Despite the loss on Monday, the Jets have won 11 of their last 16 home games with four of the five losses coming by one goal in either regulation, overtime or in a shootout. 10* (72) Winnipeg Jets |
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04-22-15 | Atlanta Braves +129 v. New York Mets | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The Mets have started the season 11-3, matching the 1986 team for best start in franchise history. New York remains the Majors lone unbeaten team at home, winning its first eight contests at Citi Field, and have won nine in a row overall to take a two and a half game lead in the National League East. The Mets have been cleaning up as favorites, going 7-1 overall but now is the time to strike as we get to the back end of the rotation. Atlanta has lost four of its past six after a 6-1 start as it is the team that trails New York by 2.5-games. The pitching is obviously a concern but the value is there because of the Mets winning streak and we can usually take advantage when two bottom of the rotation starters square off. Dylan Gee gets the ball for the Mets and while we mentioned they have been cleaning up as favorites, this is the first time this season Gee has not been an underdog. As a matter of fact, he was favored just three times all of last year with New York going 1-2. He has been dreadful this season with a 7.59 ERA through two starts. The Braves counter with Eric Stults who hasn't been much better but he has at least been more consistent. This is one of his favorite opponents to pitch against as he has a 2.87 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in seven career starts. The Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road underdog. 10* (907) Atlanta Braves |
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04-22-15 | Minnesota Twins +145 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 3-0 | Win | 145 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Kansas City is by far the biggest public consensus play of the night and we will take advantage of the inflated line. The Royals have won the first two games of this series and three straight overall to move into a tie with Detroit for first place in the American League Central. They got away with one last night as they scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to pull out the one run victory. Minnesota meanwhile had won four of five games before arriving in Kansas City and the road has not been kind to the Twins as they are just 1-7 though eight games on the highway. The moneyline reflects this however and tonight presents a good opportunity to grab a road win prior to the off day tomorrow. Mike Pelfrey will be making his third start of the season and after allowing four runs in his season debut, he allowed just one run against the Indians last time out. It was a step in the right direction for Pelfrey who has battled shoulder injuries the past two season but he is now healthy and his 1.32 ERA this spring shows he can be a valuable asset. Jeremy Guthrie goes for the Royals and he has struggled out of the gates by allowing four runs in each of his first two starts. The offense has bailed him out both times so he is 2-0 despite a 5.54 ERA. The Twins were a nemesis last year as he posted a 6.23 ERA against them which adds to the inflated number here. 10* (923) Minnesota Twins |
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