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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-22-15 | Washington Wizards v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 89-106 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
We backed the Pistons on Friday but now we will be going against them as they come in a shorter home underdog. Detroit was able to take out Chicago outright but as good as the value was in the line there, it has completely disappeared as the Pistons are roughly getting five points fewer against a team that is just a game and a half worse than the Bulls. As mentioned Friday, Detroit has one of the better records in the Eastern Conference since late December at 17-10 while Washington is just 13-14 but the situation trumps that today. The Wizards have lost four straight road game to drop to 13-13 on the highway this season which is a part of the line makeup while the loss on Friday at home against Cleveland by 38 points is also playing into it. That was a devastating defeat but that is the type of loss that will spark a team in its next game which I expect with Washington. Speaking of Cleveland, the Pistons have them on deck at home on Tuesday. Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after a win while Washington has won 10 of 13 games this season as a road favorite. 10* (805) Washington Wizards |
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02-21-15 | Toronto Raptors v. Houston Rockets -2.5 | Top | 76-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
While the rest of the NBA card features games involving notable injuries as well as many big name players playing with other teams, Toronto and Houston is the lone game where there will be no surprises. A big surprise from last night came from Toronto as it trounced the Hawks in Atlanta by 25 points thanks to a 56-35 second half advantage. Taking nothing away from what it has accomplished but Toronto has played the third easiest schedule in the NBA Pounding the best team in the Eastern Conference provides an immediate letdown opportunity while on the other side, Houston looks to bounceback from a poor effort in Dallas last night. The Rockers fell to the Mavericks by 11 points in a game that was not even as close as that as they trailed by 20 points late in the second half. The Rockets are now back home where they are 18-8 on the season including wins in eight of their last 10 games. We are getting a solid price and Houston has been awesome in this situation this season, going 13-4 straight up and ATS following a loss while going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss. 10* (508) Houston Rockets |
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02-21-15 | Pittsburgh Penguins +128 v. St Louis Blues | Top | 4-2 | Win | 128 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
It has been a rough week for Pittsburgh which has lost three straight games as the offense has been stuck in reverse, scoring just one goal in each of those losses. The last two defeats came at home including the last against Columbus as a -230 chalk and now the Penguins come into tonight as the underdog and for good reason. St. Louis is second in the NHL with 80 points following its blowout victory over Boston last night. It was the 22nd home win for the Blues but they are just 2-2 over their last four home games which shows they can be had. Goalie Jake Allen won his sixth straight start last night however Brian Elliott is confirmed to start Saturday despite posting a 3.79 GAA in his last five starts, getting pulled in two of those games. On the other side, Marc-Andre Fleury is 2-2-1 with a 1.76 GAA over his last five games against St. Louis and more recently, he has a 1.00 GAA in his last six starts overall. The Penguins are 37-14 in their last 51 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game while going 90-41 in their last 131 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (17) Pittsburgh Penguins |
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02-21-15 | TCU v. Kansas -12.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
While going against West Virginia because of the big home win over Kansas, we are playing on the Jayhawks following that stunning defeat. They are now just a game up on Iowa St. in the Big XII and this is the last real breather of the season as they head to rival Kansas St. Monday making this a must win game. Heading home for it helps as Kansas is 12-0 at home and has won 21 straight games in Allen Fieldhouse going back to last season. Going into that game against the Mountaineers, Kansas was ranked first in the RPI. TCU has won two straight games for the first time since starting the season 13-0 and this is the first two-game conference winning streak since entering the Big XII three years ago. Going back, the Horned Frogs are 0-24 all-time in Big XII road games and the good news here is that Kansas will not be taking TCU lightly as the Horned Frogs took them right to the buzzer last month in Fort Worth in what ended up a three-point win. The Jayhawks are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss while the Horned Frogs are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games following a win. 10* (574) Kansas Jayhawks |
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02-21-15 | George Washington +5.5 v. Richmond | Top | 48-56 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
The Atlantic Ten is littered with really good teams as eight have winning records and two of those square off today. George Washington looks to shake off its three-game losing streak as it heads to Richmond following a tough loss Wednesday. The Colonials dropped to 7-6 in the conference and going back further, they have failed to cover six straight games which has inflated this line right from the opening on Friday afternoon. George Washington is in its longest slide since dropping four straight games late in the 2012-13 season. Richmond is coming off an upset win at St. Bonaventure but it is still just 2-3 over its last five games and while it is 5-1 in home conference games, only one of those came against a team with a winning record. We are seeing a 12-point line swing from the first meeting last month with a way to big of an adjustment. George Washington covered its lone game in this price range while Richmond is 1-6 ATS this season as a favorite of seven or fewer points. The underdog has covered nine of the last 11 meetings in this series. 10* (579) George Washington Colonials |
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02-21-15 | Miami (FL) v. Louisville -8.5 | Top | 53-55 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
Louisville has lost two straight games, the first time that has not only happened this season but it is the first time the Cardinals have dropped consecutive games since the 2012-13 season when they lost three straight while still in the Big East. The intensity has not been there of late and one proven stat of that is with steals as Louisville has just nine steals collectively in its last four games. The Cardinals had been seventh nationally averaging 9.3 spg prior to that stretch and we will see a huge effort in that area today. Louisville is 13-3 at home and followed up its other two home losses with double-digit home wins next time out. Miami has won two straight and three of four but those all came against teams not heading to the NCAA Tournament and a shocking win over Duke is the only victory in the ACC against a tournament bound team. The Hurricanes are on the outside looking in so this is a big game for them but we are getting great value with the home team as Louisville was favored by 4.5 points earlier this month in Miami making the line differential with the venue switch substantial. 10* (548) Louisville Cardinals |
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02-21-15 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Oklahoma St. lost a rare home game and has lost two straight games for just the second time this season. The Cowboys followed up their two other home losses with wins in their next games and while those did take place in overtime, none of those follow up games were at home. The were killed on the offensive glass against Iowa St. last time out and rebounding has been an issue all season but they will not be facing a dominant rebounding team today. While this is a play on an Oklahoma St. bounce back, it is also a play against a West Virginia letdown as the Mountaineers are coming off a last second home upset over Kansas. That moved them to 8-5 in the Big XII but the only other victory against an NCAA Tournament bound team was a home win over Oklahoma in January as the other six wins have come against Kansas St., TCU and Texas Tech all twice, the only three teams in the conference projected not to make the Big Dance. The Cowboys are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games while the Mountaineers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (550) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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02-20-15 | Boston Celtics v. Sacramento Kings -3 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
A new chapter begins in Sacramento with George Karl the new head coach and while it may take some time to bring the franchise back to a winner, I expect it to start out pretty strong the first game after the break. While the Kings were active in trades on Thursday, the core of the team is intact and a new successful voice is what this team needs following a poor ending to the first half that two coaches come and go. The Kings are just 11-17 at home but they are in a good spot here, especially with heading back out on the road to play the Clippers Saturday night. Boston played pretty well prior to the break as it won four of its last five games while covering the spread in all of those. This included a win against Atlanta to close things out but only one of those wins came on the road and that was against the lowly Knicks. The Celtics are just 8-16 on the road and this is not where they have thrived as they are 15-5 ATS as underdogs of six or more points but just 4-8 ATS as underdogs less than that. 10* (822) Sacramento Kings |
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02-20-15 | Chicago Bulls v. Detroit Pistons +6 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Despite a horrendous start to the season and sitting 12 games under .500, the Pistons are very much alive for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They are just two games out of the eighth and final playoff spot and while the likelihood of advancing out of the first round are very slim, it would be a huge achievement. After starting the season 5-23, Detroit is a very respectable 16-10 over its last 26 games which is actually one of the best records in the Eastern Conference. The acquisition of Reggie Jackson from Oklahoma City shows they are going for it. Chicago has won four straight games but the extended time off may hurt that momentum and going back, the Bulls are just 14-11 over the same timeframe of the Pistons streak. They have been a very good road team this season but they are just .500 against the number as a road favorite. Going back before the break, the Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss while the Bulls are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. 10* (818) Detroit Pistons |
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02-19-15 | Utah v. Oregon State +8.5 | Top | 47-37 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
Clearly Oregon St. is getting no respect here. The Beavers are one of six teams in the Pac 12 with a winning record and is very much alive for a top four seed in the upcoming tournament which comes with a first round bye. They are coming off a pair of losses last week but both were on the road and both were revenge losses and the venue has played a big role for Oregon St. this season as the home team is 12-1 in its 13 conference games. Overall, the Beavers are 14-0 at home and is has not been filled with cupcakes as it includes victories over Arizona and UCLA. Utah is tied with Arizona at the top of the conference at 10-2 and like the Beavers, it is undefeated at home with a 15-0 record. The Utes are just 4-3 on the road however and while three of those were blowout conference wins, none came against a team with a winning conference record. Oregon St. is a perfect 3-0 straight up and ATS as a home underdog and going back, the Beavers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (568) Oregon St. Beavers |
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02-19-15 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 202.5 | Top | 115-119 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
We played the under in the Clippers last game before the All-Star break but we will go the opposite Thursday as we are seeing a good amount of value in the over. Los Angeles had gone over the total in three straight games prior to that and all of those were some big numbers. As a matter of fact, this is the lowest total the Clippers have seen in eight straight games. The Spurs went under the total in their final four games before the break as their defense really rose to the occasion. They will find the going a lot tougher here against a Los Angeles team averaging 107.1 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting at home. Last year, the over was 13-6-1 the first two days after the break after going 12-8 to the over two years ago and this has been a pretty common theme as the time off has helped the offenses. The over is 6-1 in the Spurs last seven games against teams with a winning record while the over is 6-1 in the Clippers last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (503) San Antonio Spurs/Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-19-15 | Winnipeg Jets +150 v. Washington Capitals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Winnipeg and Washington are relative equals even though the line may be telling us different. The Jets are leading the Wild Card race with 70 points in the Western Conference while the Capitals are leading the Wild Card race with 72 points in the Eastern Conference. Even the home/road splits are very even as Winnipeg has 15 wins at home and on the road while Washington has 15 home wins and 16 road wins. This comparison shows the Capitals not having a huge edge here despite home ice and this moneyline is simply way too high. If anything, this is a much worse spot for Washington which is coming off two road upsets against Anaheim and Pittsburgh and it has a revenge game with the Islanders on deck. The Jets meanwhile have won two in a row, both coming in a shootout and those two points by not losing in extra time were huge as they maintain a four-point lead on los Angeles and San Jose. It doesn't help that the Capitals are 5-11 in their last 16 games in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. 10* (5) Winnipeg Jets |
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02-19-15 | Purdue v. Indiana -5 | Top | 67-63 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Not much was expected of Indiana this season but it has quieted the critics with an 18-8 record including 8-5 in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers are currently projected as a seven-seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament but they could definitely use another quality win or two before the Big Ten Tournament. The short-term goal is to move into the top four in the conference where they sit a game out with five to play. Purdue is one of those teams ahead of Indiana so a victory would move them into a fourth place tie. Indiana is 15-1 at home this season including a 6-0 record in the Big Ten. Purdue won at home against Nebraska on Sunday to move to 9-4 in the conference. That was its sixth win in its last seven games and the Boilermakers have covered all seven of those so we are truly getting value on Indiana because of that. The lone defeat came against 5-9 Minnesota and Purdue was getting the same spread there as it is here despite now playing a much better team. Indiana lost the first meeting in West Lafayette by 16 points so payback will be sweet tonight. 10* (514) Indiana Hoosiers |
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02-18-15 | Detroit Red Wings +160 v. Chicago Blackhawks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 160 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
After a strong start to the season, Chicago has been very inconsistent over the last couple months. A 10-1 run that ended in mid-December has turned into very little going right as the Blackhawks are just 13-12 over their last 25 games even though they have won their last two games. They used to have a dominant home ice advantage but have gone just 4-5 over their last nine home games. Detroit dropped its third straight game on Monday as it got shutout at home against Montreal 2-0. While they have definitely been better at home with a 17-12 record, the Red Wings has been decent on the road with a 14-12 record and this after a 2-5 start. They are 7-3 in their last 10 roadies and with Jimmy Howard having a few games under his belt since returning from injury, one of the top defenses in the league should be even better. The Red Wings are 5-1 in their last six games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game while the Blackhawks are 2-5 in their last seven games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (53) Detroit Red Wings |
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02-18-15 | Vanderbilt v. Florida -5.5 | Top | 47-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Florida is back home following a loss at Texas A&M on Saturday which was its fourth straight defeat overall. Included in that are two home losses but those came against Kentucky and Mississippi, which is 8-4 and sits in fourth place in the SEC. The losing streak got started with a loss at Vanderbilt just over two weeks ago and they will be out for some revenge after falling behind 15-0 in that game and unable to recover. The Commodores are on the opposite end of things right now as they have won three of their last four games with two of those coming at home and the most recent being an eight-point win at Alabama as underdogs. That was just their second road win of the season and Vanderbilt has won two straight road games only once since late in the 2012 season. This is the longest losing streak for Florida since 2007-08 and it will try to avoid a fifth straight loss, something that has not happened since 1997-98. This is where pride takes over. 10* (718) Florida Gators |
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02-18-15 | Davidson v. George Washington -1 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The Atlantic Ten remains wide open with six teams within 2.5 games of each other, all looking for one of those top four positions which come with a double bye in the upcoming conference tournament. Two of those teams square off tonight and we are getting a great number based on the against the spread records of these two teams. Davidson is an incredible 16-4 ATS and has won and covered three straight while George Washington is just 7-14-1 ATS and has dropped two straight outright while losing five in a row against the number. The Colonials had a chance to close the gap but were pounded by VCU in their last game which was their first home loss of the season and going back, George Washington has won 25 of its last 27 at home dating back to the 2012-13 regular season finale. The Wildcats are 6-4 on the road but only two of those wins have come against winning teams and while they have been solid as underdogs this season, the number is a short one as a George Washington victory likely means cashing at the window as well. 10* (740) George Washington Colonials |
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02-17-15 | Kentucky v. Tennessee +14.5 | Top | 66-48 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
While the Kentucky "Pursuit to Perfection" that ESPN has been promoting is nauseating, the public love for the Wildcats is definitely paying off at the window on the other side. They are coming off a cover in their game on Saturday against South Carolina which snapped a five-game streak of ATS losses and we will be going against making it two straight. It took a while for the linesmakers to catch up with the numbers but it has certainly been a he reversal as Kentucky is just 4-8 against the number in the conference while going 4-7 ATS following an ATS win the entire season. Tennessee is in desperate need of a run to have an outside shout of an NCAA Tournament berth. The Volunteers are coming off a loss to LSU by 18 points which was their third loss in four games to drop to 6-6 in the SEC. While they are 9-4 at home, they have covered just two games at Thompson-Boling Arena and that only adds more value to the mix tonight. Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a double-digit loss at home while the Wildcats are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. 10* (504) Tennessee Volunteers |
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02-16-15 | Montreal Canadiens v. Detroit Red Wings -125 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Coming off a loss on Saturday against Winnipeg at home in overtime gave Detroit consecutive losses for the first time since December when it dropped six straight games. The Red Wings had gone 5-0 in their previous five games following a loss prior to Saturday and Monday is a great opportunity to avoid another defeat while climbing up the standings. They trail Montreal and Tampa Bay by four points in the Atlantic Division so a win here is vital and they would also leapfrog Pittsburgh into fourth place in the Eastern Conference which comes with home ice in the playoffs. Detroit has lost only four games in regulation at home with one of those coming against the Canadiens earlier this season so it will be out for some payback as well. Montreal is coming off a 2-1 homestand with all three games going into extra time and all coming against teams at least eight games under .500. The Red Wings are 37-14 in their last 51 games after allowing five goals or more in their previous game while going 9-0 in their last nine games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (56) Detroit Red Wings |
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02-16-15 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 52-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
We played on Georgia Tech Saturday and lost as the Yellow Jackets were abysmal on offense, shooting just 35.6 percent including going 3-15 from long range. This team is better than that and I expect a bounce back effort tonight as we are getting a good number because of records. With the exception of a 29-point loss at Virginia, Georgia Tech has hung around in all of its other 10 conference losses. All have been by seven points or less including two in overtime which includes two games against Notre Dame and another against Duke. Clemson had won four straight games before losing two in a row but the Tigers bounced back on Saturday with a 21-point win against Virginia Tech. the 75 points they scored were the most since their season opener against Florida A&M but don't plan on a repeat as Clemson is averaging just 55 ppg on the road while Georgia Tech is allowing just 60.8 ppg at home. The Tigers may not be fully focused here with a game at Duke on deck while the Yellow Jackets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. 10* (706) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
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02-15-15 | St Louis Blues v. Florida Panthers +145 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
St. Louis is by far the biggest public play of the day which is a big reason we are getting some value with Florida. The Blues are coming off an upset win over Tampa Bay on Friday which was their second straight win following a minor two-game skid and they wrap up the Florida trip today before heading back to St. Louis for a four-game homestand. While the Blues are tied for third in the NHL with 76 points, home ice has been the main cause as their 15-12 road record is pretty average. Florida is well down the in the Atlantic Division standings but it is just four points out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference so the Panthers still have a lot at stake. They are coming off a 0-2 roadtrip but the Panthers have been much stronger at home, coming off a win over Anaheim in their last game here and going 2-1 in the homestand, losing to Nashville in a shootout being the lone blemish. Florida is actually 6-10 against the league's top ten teams which is one of the better records for teams that are in the bottom half of the league and it is plus units in those games because of the underdog numbers. 10* (4) Florida Panthers |
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02-15-15 | Hofstra -1 v. Drexel | Top | 81-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Drexel has gained some life which may be enough to save a season that was spiraling out of control. It still isn't a great record overall as the Dragons are 10-14 but the conference performance has improved considerably. They are on a six-game winning streak after opening 2-5 and four of those losses were double-digit blowouts. Drexel has not lost against the spread during this run either but the lines have been considerably in their favor as has the recent schedule. The last three games have been against the three bottom teams in the conference so things toughen up on Sunday. Hofstra has been a mystery at times this season as it has had its share of blowout wins while also getting blown out a handful of times as well. Of its 13 conference games, only four have been decided by single digits and they were on the wrong end of a blowout loss at home against Northeastern on Thursday. The Pride are 1-5 ATS over their last six games which is adding value going along with the Drexel hot streak. The Dragons will be out for revenge following a 28-point loss at Hofstra last month but the Dragons are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game while the Pride are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (877) Hofstra Pride |
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02-15-15 | Detroit v. Oakland -6 | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Detroit has a quick turnaround following a Friday home game where it was able to upset Cleveland St. as an underdog, snapping a four-game non-cover streak on its home floor. Now the titans hit the road where they have dropped three straight and while they were able to cover two of those and push the other, the situation this time around is horrible. Not only are they playing with just a day of rest but they are playing an Oakland team that is going to be extremely fired up to play. The Golden Grizzlies are coming off two straight losses which ended a four-game roadtrip and this is their first home game in February. Oakland is two games clear of Milwaukee despite the loss in the last game as it is in fourth place which avoids the first round in the Horizon League Tournament and it is just a game and a half out of second place which would mean a second round bye on top of it. They are riding an eight-game home winning streak and will be out to avenge a 20-point loss in Detroit last month. The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record while the Golden Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (870) Oakland Golden Grizzlies |
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02-14-15 | Boise State v. Fresno State +4 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
The loss of star guard Anthony Drmic has not put a damper on Boise St. as it is making a huge run in the MWC. The Broncos have won eight straight games and even more impressive, they have covered the spread in all of those. The run includes wins over San Diego St. and Colorado St. which are two teams they are sandwiched between atop the conference standings but with winning streaks, especially the ones that are killing the lines, those lines get adjusted and at this point we look to be selling them high and buying Fresno St. low. The Broncos are 6-5 in the conference which is very respectable even though they have dropped three of their last four games. However, those were all on the road and on the season, Fresno St. is 6-2 at home with one loss coming against 8-4 Wyoming in overtime and the other coming early in the season by seven points against California. The Broncos have an impressive home win over San Diego St. and that Wyoming game should have gone the other way so this has turned into a great home court edge. The Bulldogs are 20-8-3 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss. 10* (650) Fresno St. Bulldogs |
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02-14-15 | James Madison v. Elon | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
We played against Elon Wednesday as it got pounded by William & Mary in a revenge spot for the Tribe. We will be backing the Phoenix now however as they are in an exceptional spot based on schedule and value. The loss to William & Mary was the fifth straight for Elon but it was a very tough stretch with four of those games coming on the road with the lone home game coming against suddenly resurgent Drexel which has won six straight games. Four of their conference losses have been by four points or less so a couple of those going the other way and a less hectic schedule could have the Phoenix in a better spot. James Madison comes in on a two-game winning streak with both of those victories coming on the road at Towson and Delaware so this makes it the third straight road game for the Dukes and going back they also defeated Hofstra in their prior road game. That is never an ideal situation for any team and you have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time they won four straight on the road and those were spread out over a course of three weeks. 10* (610) Elon Phoenix |
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02-14-15 | Oklahoma State v. TCU +2.5 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
This is the perfect example of a letdown situation. Not only is Oklahoma St. coming off an upset win against Baylor as an underdog, it was its third straight outright underdog win as victories over Kansas and Texas are also in the group. Playing three straight quality teams and winning the way they did, the Cowboys are ripe for not getting up here, especially when facing a team that is sitting in last place in the Big XII. The wins against the Bears and Longhorns, which came in overtime, upped their road record to 3-5 so clearly they were playing bad on the highway prior to this mini-run. Making matters even tougher, the Cowboys host Iowa St. and West Virginia next week, two teams they are looking up at in the conference. TCU looked as though it was going to turn the corner thanks to a 13-0 start this season but things went south quickly. The Horned Frogs are 1-10 in the conference but they have had some tough close losses and the recent schedule with three of their last four games on the road against quality teams. We go contrarian here as a 0-4 ATS run gets broken on Saturday. 10* (586) TCU Horned Frogs |
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02-14-15 | Wichita State v. Illinois State +3 | Top | 68-62 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
We played against Illinois St. last Saturday and this game was part of the rationale for that. Coming off three straight wins and facing Southern Illinois right before taking on the top two teams in the MVC should have had the Redbirds flat last Saturday and that was the case as they fell behind big early and could not recover. Illinois St. then went to Northern Iowa and got walloped by 19 points as it fell behind early and once again could not recover. Now the Redbirds head home where they are just 8-4 but that is a deceiving record as two conference losses against Northern Iowa and Indiana St. were by a combined three points and the two nonconference losses against Utah St. and VCU were by a combined nine points. Wichita St. meanwhile is coming off its third straight win since losing its first conference game against the Panthers as it rolled against Indiana St., its second straight blowout home win. The Shockers are 7-2 on the road but have struggled the last tow games and the public is forcing this line to be too high once again and linesmakers have to adjust it based on that public perception. 10* (596) Illinois St. Redbirds |
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02-14-15 | Western Kentucky -2.5 v. Marshall | Top | 82-87 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
With Louisiana Tech winning on Thursday, Western Kentucky is now a half-game out of first place in C-USA at 9-2. The Hilltoppers have not played since last Saturday which resulted in a home loss against Rice as 12-point favorites so they have been stewing for a week to get back at someone. Winning on the road has not been an issue as they are 4-1 in their last five games on the highway with the lone defeat coming against first place Louisiana Tech. Western Kentucky went on a 9-2 ATS run but the Hilltoppers have gone just 1-4 ATS the last five games but they have been laying some big numbers because of that early success and now the value is heading back their way. Part of the reason is because of the recent turnaround for Marshall which opened the conference season 0-6, part of a dreadful 1-15 run but the Thundering Herd look like a new team with wins in four of their last five games. Three of those wins were against three of the worst six teams in the conference and they have not played in a week either so momentum from their two-game winning streak is shot. 10* (581) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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02-13-15 | Arizona State v. Washington State +5 | Top | 71-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
Arizona St. has to be feeling pretty good about itself still following its home upset against Arizona last Saturday. The Sun Devils avenged a road loss by 24 points against the Wildcats back in January which of course let to the fans storming the floor following a victory, a typical sign for a letdown next time out. Arizona St. is now 4-6 in the conference which is nothing to brag about and despite being just a half-game better than Washington St. in the Pac 12 standings, it comes in as a road favorite tonight which is very aggressive. The Sun Devils are just 1-6 on the road this season with the victory coming at California, a team that was reeling in the midst of a six-game losing streak. Washington St. has lost six of its last seven games following a 3-1 start in the conference. Four of the last six game for the Cougars have come on the road and while they lost to a suddenly resurgent California team, they defeated Stanford here. Overall, they are 6-3 at home and as a home underdog, they have not only covered both games but won both outright. The home team has covered 14 of the last 17 meetings. 10* (816) Washington St. Cougars |
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02-13-15 | Boston Bruins +101 v. Vancouver Canucks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Vancouver returns home following a rare extra time win against Chicago which backed up a loss in Minnesota prior to that. Wins have been few and far between for the Canucks since they rolled into December playing outstanding hockey. They are just 12-15 over their last 27 games and the real problem is that they have lost 13 of those games in regulation so they have been unable to grab a single point in those games. Vancouver is 0-4 in its last four games following a win and it is just 3-5 over its last eight home games. Additionally, the Canucks are 1-10 in their last 11 games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. Boston meanwhile is on a two-game losing streak, both losses coming at home where it has been a big disappointment all season. After losing just 10 home games all of last season, the Bruins have already dropped 13 this year and while the road has not been great either, we are able to play them at a very reasonable price. Boston has won four of its last six road games and going back, the Bruins are 20-8 in their last 28 games after allowing five goals or more in their previous game. 10* (9) Boston Bruins |
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02-13-15 | Cornell v. Dartmouth -3 | Top | 81-72 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Dartmouth is 1-5 in the Ivy League, sitting in a tie for last place with Brown, just less than halfway through the conference schedule. Yet the Big Green come in as a favorite here and that is a role that they have failed to convert in this season, going 0-5 ATS when laying points. They have been a home favorite only twice but they did win those games outright, losing the cover by just a bucket each. Dartmouth is set up in a very good position to break that ATS skid as it returns home following a five-game roadtrip with the highlight being an outright win at Harvard. Since then, four losses and four non-covers which gives contrarian value tonight. Cornell meanwhile hits the road for the first time since January 24th as it has played four straight home games and this will be just the third road game in 2015. The Big Red are coming off an upset win over Princeton last timer out but they have not been able to string much together this season, going 1-4 ATS in five games following a victory. Additionally, the Big Red are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games following three or more consecutive home games. 10* (808) Dartmouth Big Green |
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02-12-15 | California v. Colorado -7 | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Colorado is coming off a loss against Utah on Saturday night and while we lost that one, we will be backing the Buffaloes again tonight. They were never in it against the Utes as they fell behind 9-0 and 17-2 to open the game and simply could not recover. It doesn't help that Utah went 13-22 (59.1 percent) from long range while Colorado was just 1-9 (11.1 percent). While Josh Scott did maker his return as predicted, Buffaloes leading scorer Askia Booker was a late scratch but he will be back tonight. Now they catch California at a good time from a betting perspective as the Golden Bears have won four straight games including three as an underdog .This followed a six-game losing skid so it has been a very streaky season for California and they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games while the Buffaloes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 20 points. This is the first time in a very long time that Colorado is fully healthy and the effort will show tonight. 10* (526) Colorado Buffaloes |
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02-12-15 | Old Dominion -3.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
You won't us laying points on the road very often but when the situation calls for it, we will take advantage of it. Old Dominion has won three straight to keep pace in C-USA at 7-3 which is good for fifth place but just a game and a half out of first place. The Monarchs have lost three straight games on the road which accounts for all of their conference defeats and sitting at 1-7 ATS in their last eight games, we are catching some value with them tonight. Case in point, they were favored by more points against 9-2 UAB in their most recent road game than they are tonight. UTSA comes in with a winning record in the conference but it is flawed. The Roadrunners are on a two-game winning streak with both coming on the road but both were against losing teams and on the season, they have only one conference win against a winning team, 6-5 Middle Tennessee St. Going back, the Monarchs are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a losing home record while the Roadrunners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (529) Old Dominion Monarchs |
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02-12-15 | St Louis Blues v. Tampa Bay Lightning -117 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
This is an excellent spot for Tampa Bay which is coming off a loss at Nashville on Tuesday and heads back home before taking off on a brutal five-game, eight-day west coast roadtrip. The Lightning know this is a big game as they have had their road troubles this season with a record of just 12-16 but they have one of the top home ice advantages as their 22-6 record is tops in the Eastern Conference. The Lightning lead Montreal by one point for the conference lead, but the Canadiens have three games in hand and coming off a loss, Tampa Bay has been extremely solid of late, winning four straight games following a defeat. St. Louis snapped a two-game skid with a home win over Arizona on Tuesday and it has been up and down on the road this season. The Blues had a five-game road winning streak snapped at Columbus with a 7-1 loss last Friday, their last game on the highway. They do struggle against good teams as the Blues are 5-16 in their last 21 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (58) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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02-11-15 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 213 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
The Rockets are coming off a win last night in Phoenix, but more importantly, it was the third straight game that went over the total which provides us with some contrarian value for tonight. Houston has been a team that has gone over the total on the road in seven of its last nine games but two of those games were against Phoenix and the other against Golden St., the top fastest teams in the NBA with 101.2 and 102.5 possessions per game respectively. The Clippers are no where near that as they average 97.3 possessions per game which is 18th in the league and they are finally back home following a lengthy roadtrip of eight games covering 14 days. They too have gone over the total is three straight games following a 6-1 under run and at home. Los Angeles has stayed below the number in nine of its last 13 games. In those, the Clippers have had a total of 210 or higher seven times with six of those staying under. Additionally, the under is 11-5-1 in Clippers last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* Under (723) Houston Rockets/(724) Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-11-15 | Indiana v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Maryland lost its third straight road game over the weekend as it fell at Iowa on Sunday by 16 points and life in the Big Ten has not been very easy. The Terrapins are 7-4 in the conference, one of five teams tied for second place which is three games behind Wisconsin. All four of those losses have come on the road which includes a loss at Indiana by 19 points which was the first of those three straight road losses, all by way of blowout. Payback will be motivation for tonight and the fact that Maryland has dropped five straight games against the number, we are getting value on their side tonight. Indiana is one of the other four teams tied at 7-4 and like the Terrapins, it has struggled on the highway, losing its last three games by an average of 14 ppg. The Hoosiers are coming off a hard fought win at home Sunday against Michigan and that will make this trip difficult. Maryland is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games following a loss and has followed up its first four losses this season with a victory. 10* (772) Maryland Terrapins |
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02-11-15 | Utah Jazz v. Dallas Mavericks -3.5 | Top | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
We are catching a very good number with Dallas due to the Mavericks possessing some key injuries so the break comes at a good time. Dallas will be without point guard Rajon Rondo, leading rebounder Tyson Chandler and leading scorer Monta Ellis and while they are certainly some key injuries, unlike college basketball, other professional players step up in these situations. The Mavericks were blown out at home against the Clippers in their last game as they lost both Ellis and Chandler early in the first quarter but now there has been time to prepare for their absences. Utah has been playing very well leading into the break as it has won two straight games but has been competitive for a lot longer, going 7-3 ATS over its last 10 games. The Jazz are coming off an upset win over New Orleans last time out but they are just 4-14 this season following a victory while the Mavericks are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games following a loss of more than 10 points. We will grab the home value tonight. 10* (720) Dallas Mavericks |
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02-11-15 | Massachusetts +3 v. Saint Bonaventure | Top | 55-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
What do you get when you have two game-winning buzzer beaters including the last one coming against a ranked team that caused fans to rush the court? A great play against opportunity next time out. That is what we have tonight with St. Bonaventure as the Bonnies have won their last two games in the final seconds that present a huge possible letdown tonight. The Bonnies are now in a tie for sixth place in the Atlantic Ten and they will now be going for their third straight win against a team ahead of them in the standings. Their luck will run out against Massachusetts which is playing great with four straight victories to move 7-3 in the conference, good for a tie for fourth place. Road revenge is usually not an angle to go after but the Minutemen lost by 14 points at home last month and they will be out to solve the Reilly Center where they have dropped three straight meetings. Massachusetts is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against winning teams and brings the Bonnies back to earth tonight. 10* (729) Massachusetts Minutemen |
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02-10-15 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska +9 | Top | 65-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Nebraska is coming off a loss at Penn St. Saturday as it continues its poor play on the road. It struggled from the field, shooting 29 percent in the loss, including just 4-of-23 in the first half in falling behind 22-13. The good news is that the Huskers have been awesome at home as they have won five straight and going back, they are 13-2 against Big Ten teams at Pinnacle Bank Arena over the last two years with the two losses coming by a combined six points. Nebraska has been a much better team at home in Big Ten play this season, averaging 65.0 ppg compared to just 48.6 ppg on the road. There isn't a whole lot of bad things to say about Wisconsin as it has won six straight games as well as 14 straight games with Frank Kaminsky in the lineup as the lone loss at Rutgers was with him sitting out. The issue is complacency as well as inflated lines as the Badgers are just 3-6-1 ATS in the Big Ten. Going back, the Huskers are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 home games. 10* (552) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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02-10-15 | Brooklyn Nets +11.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 86-95 | Win | 102 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Brooklyn can't seem to figure things out. After losing two straight games by 39 and 35 points and then falling to two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, the Nets got Deron Williams back and went on to win three in a row. Since then however, they lost another game in blowout fashion, by 37 points at Washington and are coming off a loss last night in Milwaukee. They have not failed to cover three straight and we are backing them for that reason as we are getting solid value in Brooklyn's final game prior to the break. We rode Memphis Sunday to a victory over Atlanta as it used an 8-2 run to close the game. The Grizzlies could be in letdown mode after that after its ninth win over its last 10 games and they have a game at Oklahoma City tomorrow night in their final game before the break which could turn into a lookahead situation as well. Brooklyn is cashing at a 60 percent clip as a road underdog this season while going 4-0 ATS in its last four games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (503) Brooklyn Nets |
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02-10-15 | Oakland v. Wisconsin Milwaukee +2 | Top | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
We played against Oakland on Sunday as it traveled to Valparaiso and while it did lose, it was able to cover by a bucket which was its seventh straight win against the number. Now the Golden Grizzlies come in as a road favorite and the schedule makers have done them no favors as after five straight home games, this is Oakland's fourth straight road game and the first two were not challenging against Youngstown St. and Illinois-Chicago. Plus this is a quick turnaround from Sunday. Milwaukee has not played since last Thursday where it lost at rival Green Bay by 11 points. Going back, the host 7-0 in the last seven Panthers games and going back further, the home team is 14-2 in their last 16 games. The only losses came here against Green Bay and Wisconsin, no surprises there. Milwaukee will be out for revenge after a 13-point loss in Oakland last month and the Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (542) Milwaukee Panthers |
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02-10-15 | Cincinnati v. Temple -1.5 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
With Tulsa coming off its first conference loss of the season, the AAC is now a little more wide open and this game definitely has implications at the top. Cincinnati has won its last two games to move to 8-3 in the conference, good for a tie for third place with Temple, two games behind the Golden Hurricane. The Owls have been on more of a roll as they have won five straight games while also covering every one of those contests. Normally, that could put them into a play against spot but there is a big factor that trumps that here/ the last loss for Temple came at Cincinnati by 31 points just over three weeks ago and the Owls have had this game circled ever since. The Owls played that game without senior co-captain Will Cummings but he is back and fully healthy while their defense continues to be the dominant force behind the current streak. The Bearcats are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games against teams with a winning home record and revenge will be sweet for the Owls tonight. 10* (536) Temple Owls |
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02-09-15 | Iowa State +6.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 83-94 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Iowa St. is coming off a blowout win over Texas Tech on Saturday which isn't saying much but it improved the Cyclones to 7-3 in the Big XII and with the Kansas loss, they are just a game behind the Jayhawks. They hit the road where they have dropped three straight but that is actually working in our favor as this line is inflated based on that and the recent run for Oklahoma. The Sooners have won four straight games to move to within a game and a half of first place in the conference and they were able to cover all of those games as well. Oklahoma has blown away its last three opponents on its home floor but this is the biggest test of the bunch. The Cyclones lost a week ago on Big Monday against Kansas but it has done a great job in stepping up in big games, going is 4-2 against ranked foes this season and it has 13 wins against the top 25 the last two seasons. Balance is huge and in their 10 conference games this year, the Cyclones have had six different leading scorers. Winning outright is far from out of the question but we will grab the generous number. 10* (725) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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02-09-15 | Los Angeles Clippers +9 v. Dallas Mavericks | Top | 115-98 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
The Clippers lost their fourth straight game on Sunday to fall 8.5 games behind Golden St. in the Pacific Division and they now sit in sixth place in the Western Conference. They are only 2.5 games away from third place and while the losing streak isn't bad enough, Los Angeles will be without the services of Blake Griffin for an indefinite period of time. We will be backing them tonight however as they close this eight-game roadtrip before heading home on Wednesday in the final game before the break. Even with Griffin out, this line is very favorable as Dallas is coming off a win against Portland on Saturday in overtime, its second straight victory. The Mavericks are 16-8 at home but those 16 home wins are tied for the fewest in the Western Conference for teams currently in playoff slots so they have not been dominant and really have no business laying this sort of number. Dallas is 8-14-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and the Mavericks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (715) Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-08-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 88-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
The Hawks incredible run continued on Friday as it took out the best team in the Western Conference and now will be out to beat the second best team in the conference. Atlanta beat Golden St. by eight points to make it two straight wins but more impressively, it improved to 21-1 over its last 22 games and 35-3 over its last 38 games. Those records are hard to argue but with that comes a bulls-eye on the back and Memphis will no doubt be ready for the challenge on Sunday. The Grizzlies lost at Minnesota on Friday by a point which snapped their eight-game winning streak and they now trail the Warriors by 3.5 games in the Western Conference, Part of the huge Atlanta run was a victory over Memphis last month by 10 points which is tied for the Grizzlies second biggest loss of the season so don't think they haven't forgotten. They will be up for the challenge as they have been in the past, going 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (806) Memphis Grizzlies |
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02-08-15 | Oakland v. Valparaiso -8 | Top | 76-82 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Oakland won its seventh straight game on Wednesday as it defeated Illinois-Chicago by 14 points. It was a close game to start but a 14-0 run by the Golden Grizzlies sealed the deal. It was also their sixth straight cover but that streak comes to an end today. After five straight home games, this is Oakland's third straight road game and the first two have not been challenging against 1-10 Youngstown St. and 1-8 Illinois-Chicago which has dropped eight straight games. Valparaiso is on a modest two-game winning streak but it failed to cover either of those games which I feel puts them in a solid situation today. The Crusaders are 8-2 in the conference with one loss coming by one point at Green Bay and the other coming in overtime against this very same Golden Grizzlies team. It isn't often you see teams lose in overtime by 14 points but that was the case for Valparaiso in the first meeting with Oakland as it was outscored 18-4 in the extra session so payback will be out today. 10* (828) Valparaiso Crusaders |
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02-07-15 | Utah v. Colorado +5 | Top | 79-51 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
It has been an up and down season in the Pac 12 for Colorado as it opened the season with two wins before dropping four straight games only to bounce back with two more wins. The Buffaloes fell back to under .500 however with a loss at resurgent UCLA last Saturday so they have had a week to prepare and more importantly, get healthy. Xavier Johnson has played just two games since coming back and he was a non-factor against the Bruins so the week off was big for him. Josh Scott has missed six games with a back issue and head coach Tad Boyle said "there is a chance" Scott could play and while we aren't banking on it, if he does go it is a huge bonus. Colorado lost at Utah by 25 points in the first meeting so revenge is in play and Johnson got hurt in that Utah game so he will no doubt be out for some retribution. Utah rolled in its last game at USC to get back to .500 on the road and I feel the Utes are just getting too much credit here as Colorado is still a very solid 9-2 at home. 10* (680) Colorado Buffaloes |
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02-07-15 | Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks -6 | Top | 93-96 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The Celtics are off a win last night which made it three straight victories but victories over the Knicks and Sixers are nothing to brag about nor is a win over Denver which has dumped five straight games. Give credit to Boston for continuing to play hard despite knowing it is a rebuilding season and the fact that management continues to keep that going into the season, most notably the Rajon Rondo trade. The Celtics are 8-15 on the road and Boston's last road game against a team with a pulse, albeit a faint one, was at Utah and the Celtics were getting seven points and now they are getting fewer points against a much better team. They head to Milwaukee at a bad time as the Bucks are coming off a loss last night in Houston which snapped their five-game winning streak. Milwaukee has been the best team in the NBA following a loss as it is 18-4 ATS coming off a defeat and it is now still just three games back in the Central Division. This season, the Bucks are 19-6 against teams ranked outside the NBA top 16 while the Celtics are 4-21 against teams inside that ranking. 10* (512) Milwaukee Bucks |
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02-07-15 | SMU v. Tulsa | Top | 68-57 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
SMU is coming off its second loss in the AAC against Cincinnati on Thursday, both losses coming against the Bearcats. The Mustangs are a game and a half behind Tulsa for first place in the conference and for any chance of a championship, this is a must win as they also host the Golden Hurricane in the regular season finale. The loss snapped an eight-game winning streak and they have followed up their last three losses with victories. Cincinnati shot close to 57 percent against SMU but Tulsa is hitting just 43.4 percent on the season. Tulsa remains perfect in the AAC with a 10-0 record and while that is a huge accomplishment that needs to be commended, the Golden Hurricane have benefitted from the easiest conference schedule thus far. Seven of those victories have come against teams ranked 171st or below and the best victory came against Memphis which is ranked 76th. So we really have not seen much of what this team is made of as it did nothing to impress in the nonconference portion of the season either. 10* (663) SMU Mustangs |
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02-07-15 | Alabama v. LSU -4.5 | Top | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
It has been a very strange season for LSU in the SEC as it opened with a loss at Missouri, the Tigers only conference victory of the season but then followed that up with four wins in five games including an 18-point blowout win at Florida. Since then the Tigers lost to an average Mississippi St. team and then on Thursday, they lost at home to then 2-6 Auburn by four points as 11-point favorites. LSU is 10-2 at home and cannot afford another loss against a losing SEC team, which is where Alabama comes in, The Tide are 4-5 in the conference and they too have had their share of tough losses. They opened with wins over Texas A&M and Tennessee but have only been able to defeat Auburn and Missouri since then, going 0-4 against winning teams albeit two of those losses were against Kentucky. Making this even more important for LSU is that it hosts Kentucky on Tuesday followed by back-to-back roadies at Tennessee and Texas A&M so a loss here could have the tigers at 5-8 with just five games left. Now is the time. 10* (620) LSU Tigers |
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02-07-15 | NY Rangers v. Nashville Predators -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
The Rangers came out of the break with a pair of losses against the Islanders and the Canadiens but they have won three straight games since then. Those victories all took place at home however and while New York has been very respectable on the road this season, it heads to Nashville in a horrible situation. The Rangers will be playing without goalie Henrik Lundqvist for a second straight game as he is out at least a month and Cameron Talbot is filling in. He is 5-5 on the season and is coming off a win in his first start since being the number one goalie but he has gone just 2-3 on the road and while three of his five wins have been shutouts, I do not expect that to take place today. Nashville is coming off a rare loss at home last time out as it went down against Anaheim following nine straight home wins. The Predators are 20-4 at home and they have followed up those previous three defeats with victories next time out and overall, they are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a loss by three or more goals. Additionally, the Predators are 20-6 in their last 26 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (2) Nashville Predators |
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02-07-15 | Providence v. Xavier -7.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
Xavier is coming off its first home loss of the season as it lost to Creighton of all teams in overtime as a 13-point favorite. Even with that, the Musketeers are outscoring opponents on their home floor by close to 16 ppg and I expect them to come out huge Saturday. It was the second straight loss overall for Xavier which is now a very disappointing 5-6 in the Big East Conference as the road has been its downfall. One of those road losses came at Providence just over two weeks ago so there is revenge on the plate as well. The Friars lost last Saturday at St. John's but bounced back with a big win at Georgetown on Wednesday so this makes it three straight road games in the span of seven days. That puts Providence in a tough spot here and adds to it knowing it hosts conference leading Villanova in its next game. While Xavier is 0-3 ATS at home against losing teams, it is 6-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. 10* (532) Xavier Musketeers |
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02-06-15 | Pittsburgh Penguins -119 v. Calgary Flames | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Pittsburgh is 3-2 since the All Star break and it looked to win back-to-back games for the first time since mid-January as it has followed up its last three wins with losses next time out including getting shutout the last two times. Overall, the Penguins are 3-6 over their last nine games and going back further, they are 7-12 over their last 19 games, clearly not typical Pittsburgh hockey. Tonight should be the time to get things back on track as the Penguins face a Calgary team they have defeated eight straight times and we are catching a very reasonable number based on their recent troubles along with the fact that Calgary has been playing much better. The Flames have won three straight games and eight of their last 10 following a 4-11 run prior to this. They have defeated some good teams along the way recently but the run has been littered with a majority of really poor teams and others that have been big recent slumps. Calgary has only allowed seven goals in its last five games but now faces a tough offense ready to break out and the Penguins are 37-14 in their last 51 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (59) Pittsburgh Penguins |
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02-06-15 | New York Knicks +7 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Since breaking their 16-game losing streak, the Knicks are in the midst of their best stretch of the season as they are 5-3 over their last eight games despite coming off a loss last time out against the Celtics. New York has not been good on the road this season which is stating the obvious but despite a .130 winning percentage, it has covered half of those games while going 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. To say this line is inflated would be an understatement as Brooklyn is not only laying points for the first time since January 9th but is laying this many points for just the sixth time all season. The Nets have been underdogs for 12 straight games and prior to that, they failed to cover their last four games when favored. Granted, they did face some tough teams along the way and while this may be considered a breather alert, that is actually in our favor especially with a revenge game at Washington tomorrow. The Knicks will be out to avenge two losses against the Nets earlier this season which are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (801) New York Knicks |
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02-06-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Following a 10-game losing streak, the Orlando brass had seen enough and fired head coach Jacque Vaughn on Thursday. Assistant James Borrego takes over on an interim basis and we will back the Magic in this very strong in season angle that favors teams playing their first game with their new head coach as it gives the players a greater sense of urgency. Orlando has actually played pretty decent over its last two games, holding its own with Oklahoma City and San Antonio on the road before losing each game by seven points. The Magic have lost their last five home games and failed to cover any of those but all of those games were against teams that are guaranteed to be in the playoffs or in the hunt at the very least. The Lakers are not one of those teams. They are just a game and a half better than Orlando and while playing the league's toughest schedule hasn't helped, Orlando has played the leagues fifth toughest slate and second toughest in the Eastern Conference. The Magic will also be looking for some payback after losing in Los Angeles by 27 points four weeks ago and the Lakers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (806) Orlando Magic |
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02-06-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Toronto Raptors OVER 210 | Top | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
We lost with the Clippers/Cavaliers over last night as a 42-point fourth quarter did us in not to mention the fact it took Los Angeles over three quarters to get its offense going. It has been a rough five-game stretch as the Clippers have averaged just 99.2 ppg on 44.6 percent shooting and the last two games have been big reasons for losing. They have shot just 44.4 percent against Brooklyn and Cleveland but they now get to face a Raptors defense that has allowed 106.2 ppg on 46.9 percent shooting the last five games. Toronto has stayed under the total in its last two games as the offense has really fallen off, averaging just 84 ppg on 38.2 percent shooting. Last night we mentioned it is a good angle to play the over when teams have a combined shooting percentage of over 90 percent and that is the case again for both teams as the Clippers are at 92.3 percent while the Raptors are at 91.7 percent. The Clippers have gone over the total in eight of 12 games when playing with no rest including five of six in the second of back-to-back road games while the over is 10-2 in the Raptors last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* Over (807) Los Angeles Clippers/(808) Toronto Raptors |
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02-05-15 | Gonzaga v. Santa Clara +17.5 | Top | 77-63 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Gonzaga comes in ranked number two in the nation after Virginia lost last Saturday against Duke and this team has been rolling with 15 straight wins. Because of the ranking and the winning streak, the Bulldogs lines are becoming severely overinflated, especially on the road. Their last four games have all been at home with this being the first road game since January 17th and while they are obviously winning, they are not winning overly convincing. Gonzaga has not won a road game this season by more points than it is being asked to lay tonight and Santa Clara is no pushover. The Broncos are a game under .500 overall and in the Big West Conference and the road has been the problem where they are 2-7. At home however, Santa Clara is a respectable 8-3 with wins in its last five home games with three of those wins coming as an underdog. One of the road losses came at Gonzaga but the Broncos were able to cover the big number and with the venue shift, I expect a similar outcome. With the way Gonzaga is playing, it gets the best effort from every opponent on the road and that will be no different here. The Bulldogs are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 road games following three or more consecutive home games. 10* (564) Santa Clara Broncos |
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02-05-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 207 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
We have a great situation tonight in what has the potential to be a very high scoring game. We saw it in the first meeting this season between the Clippers and Cavaliers as 247 points scored in Los Angeles less than three weeks ago. The situation is even better this time around as both teams have been by under runs but the home and road splits dictate a lot of offense. The combined field goal percentage for the Clippers on the road is 93.1 percent while the combined field goal percentage for the Cavaliers at home is 93.9 percent and anytime you can get two teams over a combined 90 percent, it is great for points and even more so in this case. Los Angeles has stayed under in two straight games as well as five of six while Cleveland has stayed under the total in six straight games as the defense has really picked things up. The last time they allows 100 points was the game against the Clippers as they have played some weak offenses since then. Los Angeles is 6-2 to the over this season when playing with two days rest while Cleveland is 4-2 to the over this season when playing with two days rest. 10* Over (503) Los Angeles Clippers/(504) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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02-05-15 | UTEP v. Florida Atlantic +6.5 | Top | 63-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Florida Atlantic is another home underdog that is getting too many points against a team near the top of the conference. Like the Cougars, the Owls are struggling near the bottom of the conference with a 1-7 record in C-USA including three straight losses. Those were all on the road however and this is the first home game since January 17th for Florida Atlantic. The Owls are 6-2 at home with the two losses coming by a combined five points, one of those by three points in overtime against conference leader Western Kentucky. UTEP is two games behind the leaders in C-USA as it is riding a two-game winning streak but those games were at home where the Miners are 9-2 compared to being just 3-4 on the road. They have dropped two straight on the highway and are 1-3 ATS in their last four road games, all coming in the role of a road favorite. Florida Atlantic gets guard Jackson Trapp, who is averaging 11.4 ppg, back for this game after missing three games with a foot injury. The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Miners are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (534) Florida Atlantic Owls |
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02-05-15 | Washington Capitals v. Ottawa Senators +110 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Washington and Boston have a sizable lead over the rest of the Eastern Conference for the two Wild Card spots but the Capitals have been unable to pull away due to some recent poor play. They won their last game as they shutout the Kings 4-0 at home but that was not a serious shocker considering the defending Stanley Cup Champions are 5-17 on the road. Washington now hits the road where it has dropped five straight and coming off a shutout win has not been a big momentum building this year as the Capitals are 1-4 following a shutout including losses in the last three. Ottawa is one of the teams back in the pack in the Eastern Conference as it is 12 points behind Boston for the final playoff slot. The Senators lost at New Jersey on Tuesday which was a big loss as the Devils tied them with 49 points. This is the start of a big stretch with seven of the next eight games coming at home with the lone road game at Buffalo so the two-plus weeks could determine their playoff fate and it starts tonight. The Senators scored just one goal against New Jersey after scoring 14 times in their recent three-game homestand and the Capitals are 1-6 in their last seven games when their opponent scores two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (6) Ottawa Senators |
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02-05-15 | William & Mary v. Charleston +6.5 | Top | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
With Northeastern and UNC-Wilmington winning last night, the pressure is on William & Mary to win and keep its lead in the CAA but despite that and the records of these two teams, this is too many points to be laying on the road. The Tribe have been rolling with three straight wins all coming by at least 16 points so stepping in front of them may not seem logical but this is exactly the time to do it. They are just 2-2 over their last four road games so their 10-0 record at home including 5-0 in the conference has been the biggest aspect of remaining in first place. Charleston is having a tough season as it is 1-9 in the CAA but there is no giving up with this team. The Cougars opened with two blowout losses but since then their other seven losses have been by six points or less including the last five coming by 3, 4, 2, 2 and 2 points. One of those blowout losses was a 30-point loss at William & Mary so revenge will be at the forefront here as well. The home team has won and covered all three meetings in this series and the outright win is not out of the question here despite what the line may be telling us. 10* (522) College of Charleston Cougars |
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02-05-15 | Washington Wizards +1.5 v. Charlotte Hornets | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
It has been a rough eight days for Washington as it lost at Phoenix last Wednesday which has sent the Wizards into a four-game spiral capped off with a loss at Atlanta last night. Going back further, they have dropped six of eight and most important for our purposes, they have dropped all eight of those games against the number. Washington has been close which doesn't help its backers but it shows it has been competitive as five of those spread losses were by just a possession. One of those defeats came at home on Monday against Charlotte and while I am not a fan of road revenge, the Wizards will be motivated for sure. The Hornets have won two straight games and since a five-game losing streak, they have won 11 of their last 14 games. This includes four straight wins at home but those were all against losing teams. On the season, Charlotte is 14-7 against teams outside the top 16 but just 7-20 against teams inside. Conversely, Washington is 21-4 against teams outside the top 16 and the Wizards have won eight of 12 games this season when playing with no rest. 10* (501) Washington Wizards |
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02-04-15 | Oakland v. Illinois-Chicago +4.5 | Top | 91-77 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
There are two teams heading in complete opposite directions but we are going against the grain here as both conference record are somewhat skewed. Oakland brings in a 6-2 record in the Horizon League while it is riding a six-game winning streak as well including covering all five lined games. The Golden Grizzles have benefitted from a very favorable schedule as they had five straight home games and last time out, its road game was at 1-9 Youngstown St. Illinois-Chicago is 1-7 in the conference as it has dropped seven straight games. The Flames however have been on the correct side of the betting ticket in four of those games including all three games played at home. They played Valparaiso very tough on Saturday which came after a three-game roadtrip and this is just their third home game in four weeks. The Flames are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (772) Illinois-Chicago Flames |
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02-04-15 | Penn State v. Maryland -8.5 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Maryland has fallen into a bit of a tailspin as it has dropped two of three games and the lone win came against Northwestern by just a single point. They have failed to cover any of those games and I feel they are catching a very good number here based on that along with the opposition's opposite run. With games against Iowa and Indiana on deck, the Terrapins really need to put a strong game together as they trail first place Wisconsin by two games in the Big Ten. Penn St. meanwhile has covered four straight games and despite a 2-7 record in the conference, the Nittany Lions have been a hanging around in the majority of their games. This is where I feel it comes to an end however as they have covered all six games as underdogs but now we are seeing a line adjustment. The Terrapins lost by 24 at Ohio St. and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. 10* (778) Maryland Terrapins |
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02-04-15 | Brooklyn Nets v. Toronto Raptors -7.5 | Top | 109-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
It has been a very streaky five weeks for Toronto as it went through a 3-8 stretch before winning six straight games to close out the month of January. February opened with a bad home loss against Milwaukee on Monday as the Raptors scored just 75 points on 32.1 percent shooting. They trailed by as many as 18 points while never leading and I expect them to come out with some fire tonight. Toronto's 75 points represent the squad's fewest since it had 74 in a loss to Portland on Dec. 10, 2012. We won with Brooklyn Monday as it upset the Clippers at home which snapped a four-game skid. The Nets have covered three in a row so we are going against that tonight as they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win. Toronto is 23-4 against teams with records below .500 but are just 10-12 against teams with winning records. 10* (704) Toronto Raptors |
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02-04-15 | Denver Nuggets +2.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Denver and Boston has opposite results last night as the Nuggets lost in Philadelphia while the Celtics were able to upend the Knicks on the road. For Denver, it was its third straight loss and they were all bad ones as the spread differential in the three games combined was 57.5 points and it wasn't competitive in any of those. The Nuggets are in a good spot to bounce back tonight however as despite the defeat last night, they have won the majority of games against teams with losing records. The victory for the Celtics snapped a three-game losing streak and they have had their share of issues at home. They have lost four straight while going 2-7 over their last nine home games following a three-game winning streak on their home floor in mid-December. Additionally, the Celtics are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (707) Denver Nuggets |
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02-03-15 | Utah Jazz v. Portland Trail Blazers -8 | Top | 102-103 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
Portland is back home following a three-game roadtrip and not a very good one at that. The Blazers dropped all three games although they were in reach in all three but they fell short to extend their road losing streak to six games. Facing red hot Cleveland and Atlanta to open the trip certainly didn't help matters but now they have a great chance to get back to winning and winning big as Portland is 20-5 at home with four of those losses coming against Golden St., Memphis, Los Angeles and Atlanta, which possess four of the six best records in the NBA. Utah has had quite a bit of time off at is last played on Friday, a home win over Golden St. but any momentum from that has been lost. This is the Jazz' first road game since January 22nd and while they have been better on the road of late, they are heading to Portland at a bad time. Utah has been terrible of keeping momentum going as it is 3-13 this season coming off a victory while covering just six of those 16 games. This is the first meeting this season between these two teams and after the Blazers won all four meetings last season, I expect them to start off the same way this year and reestablish their dominance. 10* (508) Portland Trailblazers |
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02-03-15 | Boise State v. Utah State +2.5 | Top | 68-63 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Boise St. is coming off a home win over Colorado St. last Tuesday for its fifth straight win and cover. The Broncos are now 5-3 in the MWC following a 0-3 start with one of those losses coming at home against Utah St. so while they are playing with revenge here, doing so on the road is never an easy task. Because they are on a roll now, we are getting a good number in going against them and while they have covered both games as road favorites, those were against teams with losing records. Utah St. has not had the same type of home dominance that is has had in the past but the Aggies are still a solid 8-3 at home including wins in four of their last five. They are coming off a 20-point loss at San Diego St. on Saturday as they ended up shooting a season-low 29.2 percent and turning in a season-low 42 points while committing a season high 19 turnovers. It was definitely an aberration as Utah St. is just outside top-20 nationally in taking care of the ball, committing just 10.8 turnovers per game, which ranks 22nd in the nation. Utah St. has never lost to Boise St. in the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, carrying a perfect 18-0 record against the Broncos at home and we can expect that streak to continue tonight. 10* (546) Utah St. Aggies |
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02-02-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns +3 | Top | 102-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
We played on Phoenix eight days ago when it was a home underdog against the Clippers and was trounced by 20 points. That was the first and only time the Suns have been home underdogs this season, until now as they are catching a similar number in a very strong situation spot. Phoenix had its modest two-game winning streak snapped against Golden St. on Saturday as it lost by 19 points but the Warriors were on a two-game skid so that was not a good spot for the Suns to be in. Phoenix is seven games over .500 overall including a 15-9 record at home and looks to get back in the win column to keep a two-game lead in the Western Conference for the eighth playoff spot. The Grizzlies have the second best record in the conference thanks to a six-game winning streak that included five games at home. The last road game was a blowout win in Dallas to add to their three-game road winning streak but the other two wins came against the Magic and Nets. Overall, Memphis has been solid on the road but of its 14 road wins, 10 have come against teams with a losing record. The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record while the Suns are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (716) Phoenix Suns |
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02-02-15 | Atlanta Hawks v. New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 | Top | 100-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
This is another game where the line was delayed in coming out and that was because of Pelicans center Anthony Davis/ He missed the last game due to a groin injury but New Orleans was still able to outrebound the Clippers 51-38 and pick up its fifth win over its last six games. The Pelicans are now three games over .500 on the season and while they are far the elite in the conference, they sit just two games out of the eighth and final playoff spot. The fact they are home underdogs here isn't overly surprising based on the opposition but this has been a solid spot all season as New Orleans is 4-1 as a home underdog with wins over Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston and Oklahoma City and the lone loss coming against Golden St. in overtime but that resulted in another cover. It seems like the Hawks have been at home forever and it definitely was a good long homestand as they are coming off seven straight home games with all of those being wins obviously which has added to their franchise record 19-game winning streak. Atlanta looks to match the 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks for the league's fourth-longest run ever. Injuries are now a concern though as Thabo Sefolosha, DeMarre Carroll and Shelvin Mack are all out again tonight and the depth could finally catch up to the Hawks in its biggest road test in close to a month. 10* (710) New Orleans Pelicans |
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02-02-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Brooklyn Nets +9 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
There arte three home underdogs on the Monday card and we can make a case for all three as they are in great spots while also going against the contrarian public opinion. The Clippers/Nets line was a late release due to the status of Deron Williams and Joe Johnson but the situation for the Nets is ideal. Brooklyn has been stuck in reverse since the calendar turned to 2015 as it is 3-12 including losses in 12 of the last 14 games. One of those losses took place in Los Angeles and it was the biggest of them all as the Nets lost to the Clippers by 39 points so there is definitely going to be some motivation for payback tonight. Brooklyn has dropped seven straight games at home and for this reason they are catching the biggest home underdog number they have seen all season. The Clippers easy win less than two weeks ago against the Nets coupled with the fact they have a game at the Cavaliers on deck with have them on a motivational low tonight. The Nets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game while the Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record. While an outright upset isn't out of the question, we will gladly grab the generous number here. 10* (708) Brooklyn Nets |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots UNDER 48.5 | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -105 | 319 h 52 m | Show |
We have seen some high scoring Super Bowls in recent years as five of the last six have seen 48 points or more being scored. With the scoring going up even more this season, people are expecting to see another high scoring game but I do not think that is going to be the case this season. We have two offenses capable of putting up points but we also have two defenses that are capable of at least slowing the opposing offense down. Seattle brings in the top ranked defense into the Super Bowl in both points allowed and yardage allowed. That being said, I still think the Patriots offense is going to be able to have success, albeit not to the extent of the success that New England has had the first two games of the playoffs. As mentioned in the side report, the Seattle defense gets a lot of credit as it should but it has allowed 23.6 ppg, compared to 13.5 ppg in the other games, when facing the well above average quarterbacks this season and it is again facing someone from that group. Typically, that would mean a high scoring game but I firmly believe the other side will have a huge impact in this game and one that probably many are not expecting. The Patriots defense has been average this season, ranked 13th in total defense but a much more potent eighth in points allowed. They did give up 31 against Baltimore but since Week 12, they have allowed 17 points or less six times and have allowed an average of 16.6 ppg over their last eight games. There were some fluke games early in the season but when facing top notch quarterbacks, they have done exceptional. Against Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck (twice), Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers, they allowed an average of just 16.2 ppg. They came up huge in the AFC Championship against the Colts and overall, New England finished ninth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed and rushing ypc allowed which will be important against the Seahawks for obvious reasons. This is the highest total that Seattle has encountered all season long and it is even higher than last year's Super Bowl total. That one went over because of 14 points scored from defense and special teams and as long as we don't see that again, this one should stay under the number comfortably. 10* Under (101) New England Patriots/(102) Seattle Seahawks |
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02-01-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots +1 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 318 h 53 m | Show |
Seattle opened as a three-point favorite and last for about an hour and a half before some major action came in on the Patriots which drove it all the way down to -1 and eventually a pickem. There was no way that field goal spread would have stayed no matter the amount of action that came in as from a power ranking and spread standpoint, this game is a pickem. It is the intangibles however that I feel gives the Patriots a significant edge and they will deny the Seahawks from becoming the first back-to-back champions in a decade when they were the last team to do it back in 2003-04 and 2004-05. the biggest intangible edge for New England is the coaching staff. Taking nothing away from what Pete Carroll has done in Seattle but Bill Belichick is a legend and despite losing the last two Super Bowls, he will come up with an alternate gameplan to avoid a repeat of those. We played against the Seahawks in the NFC Championship and while we cashed the ticket, the Packers should have won that game outright as they outplayed Seattle for 57 minutes of that game. Green Bay was not aggressive when it needed to be and the onsides kick debacle as well as not even getting the ball on offense in overtime was unfortunate. Going into this game, Seattle had not played a top line quarterback since Week Six when Dallas came to town and won outright and while the Seahawks won on Sunday, they didn't beat Aaron Rodgers as the Packers did it to themselves. And the Seahawks are not going to beat Tom Brady either. New England has gone 19 playoff games since winning its last Super Bowl and that is killing Brady more than anyone else hands down. Russell Wilson could turn into a superstar, he is having his worst season as a pro as far as passer rating and he is not in the same category as Brady. The Seattle defense gets a lot of credit as it should but it has allowed 23.6 ppg, compared to 13.5 ppg in the other games, when facing the well above average quarterbacks this season and it is again facing someone from that group. While motivation is not lacking this time of year, something says that the Patriots, Belichick and Brady push that pedal down more than usual and get back to the place they do in fact deserve, Super Bowl Champion. 10* (101) New England Patriots |
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02-01-15 | Los Angeles Lakers v. New York Knicks -2.5 | Top | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
The Knicks are playing their best basketball of the season, which isn't saying a lot but they are still playing within their best run since opening 2-1. New York has won four of its last six games despite getting blown out at Indiana on Thursday but that defeat is in our favor on Sunday. After losing 12 straight games at home, the Knicks have won their last three at MSG and the Lakers will not bring much resistance to the road Sunday. Los Angeles has won just once over its last 10 games as it halted a nine-game losing streak with an upset win over Chicago on Thursday which avoided a franchise record in consecutive losses. The Lakers were pumped for that game to avoid the embarrassing record so getting up here will be difficult. This has been a very home dominated series as the host has won and covered six straight meetings which spells bad news for the Lakers which have dropped six straight and 10 of 11 on the highway and have failed to cover in any of their last five. Being favored has been rare for the Knicks but they have won their last three games in that role and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record. 10* (804) New York Knicks |
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02-01-15 | Miami (FL) -1.5 v. Florida State | Top | 54-55 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
After a great start to the season where it went 8-0 through its first eight games, has cooled off somewhat by going 6-6 over their last 12 games. Losing against Virginia and Duke are certainly quality losses but some of the other losses are extremely puzzling as losing at home against Green Bay, Eastern Kentucky and Georgia Tech by 13, 28 and 20 points makes you wonder. The Hurricanes have been better away from their home floor however as they are 4-1 in true road games and 3-1 on a neutral floor and that 7-2 combined record is better than their 7-4 record at home. Florida St. has been a disappointment since the start of the season as it is 11-10 and has been unable to string together a big winning streak. The Seminoles are coming off an overtime win against Wake Forest on Wednesday but carrying momentum from that will be tough considering the Seminoles are 0-3 in their last three games following a win. Florida St. is just 2-7 this season as an underdog as it won at Clemson and against Florida and those seven underdog losses have come by an average of 9.4 ppg. The Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against team with a winning home record while the Seminoles are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against team with a winning road record. Winning on the road here is no issue as the Hurricanes have done so in each of the last two years and those were against much better Florida St. teams. 10* (805) Miami Hurricanes |
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01-31-15 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State -1.5 | Top | 64-56 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
The second edition of Bedlam takes place Saturday night as Oklahoma heads to Oklahoma St. for a national television rematch. The Cowboys continued their solid play at home with a win over Baylor on Tuesday to move to 10-1 in Stillwater on the season compared to 1-5 on the road. One of those road losses came at Oklahoma two weeks ago by 17 points for they will be out for some payback on their home floor. The Sooners destroyed Texas Tech on Wednesday by 45 points which halted a two-game skid and now they hit the highway where they have had their struggles, going 0-3 over their last three road games. The home floor has been very solid over they ear as under head coach Travis Ford, the Cowboys are 92-15 at Gallagher-Iba Arena. The Sooners have covered six straight in this series but they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 20 points while the Cowboys are 37-12-3 ATS in their last 52 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (678) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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01-31-15 | Towson v. Hofstra -11 | Top | 86-72 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
This is a big number for Hofstra to be laying but I expect no problem in covering. The Pride are coming off an embarrassing 21-point loss at William & Mary where they allowed the Tribe to shoot 64.2 percent from the floor and hang 100 points on them. It was the fourth loss in five games for Hofstra which opened a perfect 4-0 in the CAA. Five of their eight overall losses have come by six points or less while 10 of their 14 victories have come by more than what they are laying tonight. Towson meanwhile is coming off a win over Charleston to move to 3-6 in the conference. All three of those wins have been by four points or less including two victories over 3-6 Elon. After a great 25-11 season last year, this team is in rebuilding mode as four starters had to be replaced with seven new faces on the roster. Hofstra has been swept by Towson the last two years and now they are in position to some retribution while going 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of 20 or more points. 10* (672) Hofstra Pride |
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01-31-15 | Houston Rockets v. Detroit Pistons +5 | Top | 101-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The Rockets won last night in Boston which was their fourth straight win, three of which have been on the road. To their credit, they have been very strong when playing with no rest this season but this is a tougher spot than the other instances. Houston is 4-1 in the second of back-to-back road games with no rest but those four wins came against Utah, Sacramento, Miami and New York. While Detroit's record may compare to some of those teams, it has had a resurgent time following a 3-19 start as the Pistons are 14-11 over their last 25 games despite currently riding a four-game losing streak. If anything though, that should have the Pistons fired up as they are coming off an embarrassing effort against the Sixers where they scored a season low 69 points on a dismal 30.2 percent shooting including going 2-20 from long range. Additionally, they want to get the Rockets monkey off their back as they have dropped seven straight meetings in this series. We should see a big game from Pistons center Andre Drummond who was held in check in the last meeting in Detroit last season by Dwight Howard and is also coming off a poor game against the Sixers. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss while winning six of its last eight home games outright with one of those losses coming against Atlanta by just three points. 10* (508) Detroit Pistons |
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01-31-15 | Dallas Stars v. Winnipeg Jets -130 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
While Winnipeg is sitting in fifth place in the Western Conference, five teams are within seven points of the Jets so they are far from comfortable right now. They have come out of the break with a pair of losses at Pittsburgh and at Philadelphia so heading home is big here, especially with two more road games right on deck. Winnipeg allowed its largest two-game goal total of the season in getting outscored 10-5 in those losses so now it is bounce back time where the Jets have won three straight games at home by a combined score of 16-5. The Jets have just a 4-6-2 record against the Pacific Division this season and are the only team in the Central Division with a losing record against the Pacific and that is where those next two road games take place. Dallas got a much-needed victory Thursday, avoiding a third straight loss by winning 6-3 at Ottawa. The last time the Starts scored six goals, they put up a clunker in their next game and I expect the same here as they have not won consecutive road games since mid-December. Dallas is nine points behind Winnipeg for that second Wild Card spot so while it is a big game on that side as well, the Stars are just 2-5 in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Winnipeg is 5-0 in its last five games following a loss by three or more goals. 10* (58) Winnipeg Jets |
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01-31-15 | Purdue v. Northwestern -1.5 | Top | 68-60 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
Last week, Penn St. was the best team in the nation without a conference win and this week, Northwestern is arguably the best team in the country with just one conference win. The Wildcats opened with a victory at Rutgers but has since lost their last six games. It started with a 23-point loss to Wisconsin, no surprise there but the last five games have been tough to swallow. An overtime loss to Michigan St. was followed up by a five-point loss to Illinois and then losses to Michigan, Ohio St. and Maryland by two points, two points and one point. The Wildcats average margin of defeat over the five-game span is just 3.4 ppg with each being a one-possession game with less than two seconds remaining in regulation. Northwestern has to take its frustrations out on someone and Purdue fits the bill. The Boilermakers have won two straight big games over Iowa and Indiana at home and now hit the road where they are 1-3 on the season with that lone victory coming in overtime no less. Northwestern is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a loss. 10* (626) Northwestern Wildcats |
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01-31-15 | Georgia v. South Carolina -3 | Top | 50-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
We lost a tough one with South Carolina on Wednesday although there were some pushes as LSU went on a 12-2 run over the final 2:45 to earn the win, and blocked four shots in the final 30 seconds to keep the Gamecocks from taking the road win. The biggest deficit was the final score and it dropped the Gamecocks to 1-6 in the SEC. It was the fourth straight loss for South Carolina which has also failed to cover its last seven games since upsetting Iowa St. back on January 3rd. they catch Georgia at a great time as the Bulldogs will be without leading scorer Marcus Thornton who is sitting because of a concussion. It is bad timing for them as they are on a roll with wins in five straight games, all being covers as well. This sets up South Carolina with some great contrarian angles and of course line value. South Carolina can ill afford to fall further down in the conference as playing in the postseason is starting to become affected even with significant wins over Clemson, Oklahoma St. and the aforementioned Cyclones. 10* (594) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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01-31-15 | Virginia Tech v. Wake Forest -7.5 | Top | 70-73 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Hats off to Virginia Tech which took Virginia down to the wire last week and then picked up its first conference win on Tuesday as it defeated Pittsburgh in overtime. Those two games were clearly the Hokies best back-to-back efforts of the season but that is where it ends. Both of those games were at home and on the road, they are 0-5 on the season and losing by an average of 15 ppg. Going back, Virginia Tech is 3-23 in its last 26 road games. Wake Forest is actually having a worse season than the Hokies as it is 1-7 in the ACC but it has been a tough schedule. Three of the last four games have been on the road and the three home losses have come against Louisville, Duke and North Carolina so this presents a similar opportunity to the one with Georgia Tech to pick up a much needed victory. Going back, the Demon Deacons are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record while the Hokies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing record. 10* (558) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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01-30-15 | Kent State v. Buffalo -5.5 | Top | 55-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Buffalo looks to build off its win on Tuesday against Western Michigan as it hosts MAC East leader Kent St. in a rare Friday matchup that is a late tipoff on top of it. The Bulls snapped a two-game slide with the win over the Broncos and while home games have been rare, they have performed exception, posting a perfect 7-0 record. Since Bobby Hurley took over the program prior to last season, the Bulls have been nearly perfect at home, winning 20 of 21 games with the lone loss coming against Ohio last season by just three points. One of the better games this season for Buffalo was a loss but it gave Kentucky all it could handle. The 38-33 lead that Buffalo had at Kentucky remains the largest deficit that the Wildcats have had at the half all season and is tied for the most points they have allowed in a first half this year. The Bulls also led at the 13 minute mark, the latest Kentucky trailed in a non-conference game this year. The Golden Flashes hit the road after winning its sixth straight game on Tuesday, a 10-point victory over Central Michigan. They are 6-1 in the conference and of those seven games, only two have been on the road and while they won both, they were against Ball St. and Northern Illinois which are both sitting in last place in the MAC West. They have five road wins overall but none are noteworthy. Kent St. has covered six straight while Buffalo has lost three straight against the number and that is adding value to this line. The Bulls are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (842) Buffalo Bulls |
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01-30-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. New Orleans Pelicans OVER 200 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The questionable status of Anthony Davis delayed this total and while he is a gametime decision, whether he goes or not is not a huge factor in the over/under. If he plays, he obviously helps the Pelicans offense but if he doesn't, it hurts the defense so it can be considered a wash. New Orleans had its four-game winning streak snapped with a loss against Denver on Wednesday and in the process, stayed under the total for a second straight game and eighth in its last nine contests. From a pace standpoint, the game against the Nuggets was not any slower than normal, it is just that the Pelicans could not buy many baskets as they shot just 39 percent from the floor including going only 3-15 from long range. The Clippers meanwhile have won six straight games with the last three staying under the total. The last game against Utah stayed well below no thanks to horrible long range shooting as the teams combined for 50 three-point shots with just 14 being made (28 percent). Both teams have been involved in some very high totals this season, especially the Clippers, and we are getting some decent value with this number tonight. This has been a high scoring series including the first meeting this season with 220 points being scored and I expect both teams to bounce back from their poor offensive efforts last time out. 10* Over (811) Los Angeles Clippers/(812) New Orleans Pelicans |
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01-30-15 | Portland Trail Blazers +7 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
By now, everyone knows about the winning streak that Atlanta is on and it is certainly impressive. However, it is not without its faults and while it is none of their own, it needs to be looked at. The Hawks had a very impressive three-game run back in early January where they defeated the Blazers, Clippers and Grizzlies in a span of five days but the schedule has been pretty lax since then. A victory against Oklahoma City exactly one week ago was the best win over the last 11 games and of those games, six wins were against five of the worst seven teams in the Eastern Conference and another was against the worst team in the Western Conference. Sure the Hawks have proved they can beat some of the best teams out west with a win against the Blazers already but that will provide Portland with some solid motivation. I am not a proponent of road revenge but this line shift from the last meeting is way too much as it is a 13-point swing. The Blazers have been struggling with losses in six of their last eight games and while a home loss against Boston is inexcusable, the other five losses came against four top teams from the Western Conference as well as one against the resurgent Cavaliers. Portland has been an underdog of six or more points only once this season and that resulted in a cover at Phoenix without LaMarcus Aldridge in the lineup. 10* (803) Portland Trailblazers |
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01-29-15 | Utah v. UCLA +6.5 | Top | 59-69 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
We are backing another home underdog here that will be highly motivated for some retribution on Thursday. UCLA is coming off a three-game roadtrip where it went 1-2, losing by double-digits in the final two games at Oregon St. and Oregon. Overall it has been a struggle for the Bruins in the Pac 12 as they are just 3-4 but the schedule has not been on their side as five of the seven games have been on the road. They have been able to win both home conference games against Stanford and California and the lone home loss on the entire season was against Gonzaga back in mid-December. As for the retribution, UCLA will be out to avenge one of those road conference losses that took place in Utah and it wasn't close as the Utes poured it on with a 32-point win earlier this month. Utah has only one conference loss which came at Arizona and it bounced back with a pair of home wins last week against Washington St. and Washington and the Utes did not hold back as they rolled in those games by 22 and 21 points. They have one of the toughest home courts in the nation once again after a few years of mediocrity but this marks just their fifth true road game of the season. UCLA is 9-1 in Pauley Pavilion this season, posting a 25-3 record at home in two seasons under head coach Steve Alford and since UCLA re-opened renovated Pauley Pavilion in November 2012, the Bruins have compiled a 40-6 home record. 10* (556) UCLA Bruins |
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01-29-15 | UAB v. UTEP -11 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
UTEP's regular season conference championship hopes took a big hit on Saturday as the Miners went to 0-6 Marshall as 13-point favorites and lost by seven points. It was their second straight loss to drop them to 4-3 in C-USA which is three games behind conference leader Western Kentucky. Both of those losses came on the road which capped off a three-game roadtrip so UTEP is back home for the first time since January 10th and it brings in a 7-2 record, the two losses coming against 15-5 Louisiana Tech and 19-2 Arizona. UTEP hasn't dropped three consecutive league games since late February and early March of 2012. Over the last two seasons UTEP is 13-2 in C-USA games when allowing less than 70 points, and 3-5 when allowing 70 points or more. The Miners are coming off two consecutive games of the latter and under head coach Tim Floyd, they have never yielded 70 or more in three straight conference games. UAB meanwhile is coming off a win at home against Old Dominion and while we played against the Blazers, all it does is set up as a stronger go against tonight. They have won three straight and six of seven to sit just one game back in the conference and most impressive, they have covered all seven C-USA games. The double-digit line will scare people off this one but the line is this big for a reason and the Miners are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss. 10* (546) UTEP Miners |
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01-29-15 | Denver Nuggets v. Memphis Grizzlies -11 | Top | 69-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Grizzlies guard Mike Conley who has a wrist injury and missed the last game against Dallas. It didn't faze them however as they rolled to a big victory over the Mavericks to make it four straight wins and eight of their last nine. Memphis has the second best record in the Western Conference behind Golden St. and at 19-5, it possesses the fourth best home record in the NBA. The Grizzlies have games against Oklahoma City and Phoenix on Saturday and Monday so this is actually a big game to keep the momentum rolling. Getting up for the Nuggets typically wouldn't happen but in Memphis' case, it will be sky high. The Grizzlies traveled to Denver back on January 3rd and left with a 29-point loss, easily their worst defeat of the season. Payback will be at the forefront. Denver is coming off a win last night in New Orleans which snapped a seven-game losing streak but don't expect a winning streak to start as the Nuggets are not only in a bad revenge situation but this is their fourth game in five nights with travel taking place the last four days. Last night marked just the seventh road win of the season for the Nuggets and they come in just 4-14 against teams ranked in the top 10 while Memphis is 19-2 in 21 games against teams ranked outside the top 16. Blowout time in Memphis tonight. 10* (506) Memphis Grizzlies |
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01-28-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Utah Jazz OVER 199 | Top | 94-89 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
The Clippers have won five straight games and are now six games behind Golden St. in the Pacific Division. While they look to have an easy matchup tonight, we are more concerned about the total as this is the lowest number that Los Angeles has seen in a while. Since November 28th, only two games have had a total of 200 or less and those were against Miami and Indiana and while both did stay under the total, they stayed under by a combined 5.5 points so even those were close to hitting the number. The Clippers are 11-6-1 to the over in their 18 road games which is a much higher percentage than their 16-11 to the under record at home. Additionally, the over is 5-1 in the Clippers last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Utah is the reason this number is so low. The Jazz are also on a two-game under streak and going back, 14 of their last 18 games have stayed below the total. This is where the value comes into play as the majority of those games during the low scoring streak have come against poor offensive teams and the last time Utah had a total of at least 200, it was seven games back against Golden St. and that number easily went over. The over is 4-1 in Utah's last five home games against teams with a winning road record. This is the fourth and final meeting this season and we have seen the total drop each time with this being the lowest of the four games. 10* Over (719) Los Angeles Clippers/(720) Utah Jazz |
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01-28-15 | Brooklyn Nets +14 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
We played on Brooklyn Monday but the game was postponed due to the winter storm in the northeast but we are coming back with the Nets Wednesday for very similar reasons. After winning its first game of a three-game roadtrip out west, Brooklyn went on the get embarrassed in its last two games. The Nets lost at the Clippers by 39 points on Thursday and followed that up with a 35-point loss at Utah on Saturday. Being an ego-driven league, getting annihilated once usually gets a team fired up for its next game but two such losses should really have the blood boiling. Additionally, they will be out to make up for a 23-point home loss earlier this season. The Nets have held 28 teams below 100 points this season, tied with the Blazers and Hawks for the most in the league this season and 95 is the key number for the Nets as they are 16-5 this season when they score 95 or more points and 10-3 when they hold their opponent under 95 points. We all know the Hawks are playing exceptional basketball right now but the linesmakers aren't stupid as the numbers are getting the point of borderline ridiculous. The Hawks failed to cash against Minnesota laying 17 points, snapping their 15-game cover streak, and now they are laying just three points less to a team that is 11 games better than the Timberwolves. Atlanta is 16-3 ATS against winning teams but 16-8 ATS against losing teams including just 8-6 ATS at home. With a game against Portland on deck, look for another complacent game from Atlanta. 10* (705) Brooklyn Nets |
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01-28-15 | Loyola-Chicago +19 v. Wichita State | Top | 47-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Loyola-Chicago got off to a great start this season as it opened 11-2 with one of those losses coming at Michigan St. Since then though, it has been an uphill battle for the Ramblers as they have dropped five of seven games to fall to 3-5 in the MVC. Because they were covering everything along the way, the lines were adjusted following a seven-game ATS winning streak so what has happened? They have now dropped five straight games against the number so now we are seeing a shift back the other way. And of course, the opposition here is helping us out. Wichita St. has won eight straight games, all coming within the conference with the last six coming by double-digits. The Shockers have covered three straight and five of those six games with the lone non-cover coming by just a half-point. Stepping in front of this run may not seem smart however as good as the Shockers may be playing, this is the second highest spread it has layed all season long and it could not come at a worse time. Wichita St. has been favored between 18-19 points five times and all of those games were against losing teams and now it is favored by more against a 13-7 team. Additionally, the Shockers are at 18th ranked Northern Iowa on Saturday with first place on the line putting them in an even tougher spot here. 10* (753) Loyola-Chicago Ramblers |
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01-28-15 | Duquesne +13.5 v. Richmond | Top | 55-86 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Duquesne comes in at 1-6 in the Atlantic Ten Conference but it has played better than that record shows as three losses have been by six points or less including one game in overtime and another by just one point. Duquesne played at George Washington on Saturday and failed to cover by a point but the line in that game compared to this one is the concern as the Dukes were getting 14 points there and are getting just a half-point less against a Richmond team that is not on the same level as George Washington? This is an overinflated line with part of the reasoning being that the Spiders have covered five straight games and they are now laying double digits for the first time this season. We played against Richmond Saturday as while it did lose, it stayed within the number which puts the Spiders in another awkward situation. They are just 3-3 in the conference and a game over .500 overall and therefore, have no business laying points like this. With a game at VCU on Saturday, there is the definite possibility of a lookahead so getting a full effort from Richmond seems very unlikely here tonight. The Dukes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss while the Spiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (727) Duquesne Dukes |
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01-27-15 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Dallas Mavericks -5 | Top | 109-90 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
We played on Dallas Sunday and lost but we will come back with the Mavericks on Tuesday as they look to avoid a third consecutive loss. Dallas has lost consecutive games on three prior occasions this season and it went on win all of those follow up games to avoid a three-game losing streak. The Mavericks did fail to cover any of those third games however they were against the Knicks, Lakers and Kings so they were did home favorites in the first two and a road favorite in the latter making all of those tough numbers to cover. Going back even further, the Mavericks are 13-1 in their last 14 games following consecutive losses which says a lot about coaching and the entire make up of the team. Memphis played last night and won against Orlando although it failed to cover the big number. The Grizzlies capped off a successful homestand with that victory as they went 4-1 and while they have been successful on the road with a 13-7 record, digging a little deeper will explain exactly why. 10 of those 13 wins have been against teams with a losing record with Phoenix, Portland and San Antonio being the only quality victories they have away from home. The Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record while the Mavericks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (508) Dallas Mavericks |
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01-27-15 | Milwaukee Bucks +4 v. Miami Heat | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
We all knew once LeBron James left the Heat, things would not be the same in Miami but it has been even worse than expected. Injuries and age have taken a toll on this team and at 20-24, Miami is currently in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings only because of the overall weakness of the conference. The Heat are coming off an impressive win over the Bulls on Sunday however, their second straight win but you have to go all the way back to the start of the season to find the last time they won three in a row. Since then, Miami is 0-4 following two straight wins and the fact it has won consecutive games that few amount of times exemplifies the struggles that are taking place this season. Miami has been favored only 16 times in 44 games and is just 6-9-1 ATS in those games while going 4-7 straight up and 3-8 ATS as a home favorite. Milwaukee meanwhile lost at San Antonio on Sunday which was its third loss in four games and despite two straight road losses, the Bucks have been pretty solid away from home. They are 12-12 in 24 road games which includes an 8-3 record against teams with a losing record. Every year there are teams that separate themselves from the others as being a great bounce back team and Milwaukee takes the prize so far as it is 17-4 ATS following a loss, winning 14 of those 21 games outright. 10* (505) Milwaukee Bucks |
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01-27-15 | Pittsburgh -4 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 67-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Pittsburgh let us down on Sunday but the Panthers bounce back tonight in what I believe is a great situation to do so. They dropped to 3-4 in the ACC with the loss to the Cardinals and there was nothing they could do about it. Louisville shot an uncanny 65.2 percent for the game including an unheard of 70.8 percent in the first half which led to a 10-point lead at the break and Pittsburgh could not recover from it. That shooting mark was the best any team has ever shot against a Jamie Dixon-coached team and ranked as the best opponent field goal percentage ever against Pittsburgh at the Petersen Events Center. Coming off consecutive losses against top ten teams was expected based on the lines they were getting and now the Panthers get to claw back to .500 against a team well below them in class. Virginia Tech is 0-6 in the conference while sitting at 8-11 overall. Five of their eight wins came in games where no lines were posted while the other three wins came against Miami Ohio, VMI and The Citadel, all of which are at least four gamers under .500. The last loss was on Sunday at home against second ranked Virginia, its biggest rival and it was a heartbreaker as the Hokies lost by just three points. Virginia Tech was on its way to a massive upset as it led by 10 points midway through the second half but managed only 2 points over the final 9.5 minutes of the game and a game-tying three-pointer rimmed out at the buzzer. That loss will be impossible to overcome. 10* (513) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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01-25-15 | Dallas Mavericks -2.5 v. New Orleans Pelicans | Top | 106-109 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertain status of Pelicans forward Ryan Anderson who is questionable with an ankle injury as New Orleans continues to get stung by the injury bug. They already have lost Jrue Holiday who is expected to be out for another couple weeks and they just got back forward Anthony Davis who missed three games with a toe injury. New Orleans has won two straight games but those were against Minnesota and Los Angeles, the two worst teams in the Western Conference, to move back over .500 at 22-21. The Pelicans have been able to avoid big losing streaks but they have also been unable to sustain winning streaks as they are 5-16 this season following a victory which includes going 0-4 following two consecutive wins. The Mavericks look to rebound following a home loss to the Bulls on Friday and they hit the road where they are 16-7 on the season, the best road record in the Western Conference. Ironically, they lost at home to the team that possesses the second best road record in all of basketball and Dallas will also be out to win its 10th straight game in this series. Dallas is 10-3 following a loss this season so it has been a great bounce back team and it has been able to take care of business against the team it is supposed to as the Mavericks are 12-1 as road favorites this season. The only game they lost was at Houston and it was questionable they should have been favored there because Dwight Howard was out. The Mavericks are 43-18 ATS in their last 61 road games against teams with a winning home record and they have covered five straight in New Orleans. 10* (807) Dallas Mavericks |
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01-25-15 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns +3 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
The Clippers are coming off a historic victory over the Nets on Friday as they won by 39 points in a game that could have been much worse. They led by as many as 46 points before taking the foot off the gas and that result is playing into this number on Sunday. The 70 first-half points by the Clippers and the 37 by the Nets matched the season high for Los Angeles and the season low for its opponents which shows how dominant of a game it was and how hard it is going to be to sustain that momentum especially on the road. The Clippers are a respectable 10-7 on the road but those 17 road games are the fewest of any team in the NBA and it has mostly been due to the recent stretch of playing 12 of their last 14 games at home. Los Angeles is 2-3 on the road following a home win and going back it is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Phoenix is coming off a loss against Houston on Thursday which snapped a four-game winning streak and also snapped a seven-game home winning streak so the Suns will be out to get that game back. As far as this line goes, it makes no sense. The Suns were favored by 2.5 points over the Rockets and now they are getting points against the Clippers which are a half-game worse than Houston. Additionally, this is the first time all season Phoenix has been a home underdog. The Clippers have won the first two meetings this season, both coming at home, so Phoenix will also be out for some revenge and we are seeing as much as a 10.5-point line swing which is simply too much of an overadjustment. 10* (812) Phoenix Suns |
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01-25-15 | Louisville v. Pittsburgh +8 | Top | 80-68 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is an interesting scenario where both teams are coming off losses which happened to come against the same team. Louisville got smoked at home last Saturday against Duke and then Monday, Pittsburgh travelled to Durham and also got beat badly by the Blue Devils so both teams will be out to bounce back on Sunday. It has not been a typical season for Pittsburgh as it has lost some games it should not have including losses against Hawaii, NC State and Clemson and the last two weren't even close. Losses against Duke, Indiana and San Diego St. can be expected but the fact the Panthers are coming off a loss is pretty big. They are 0-11 ATS this season when coming off a win but they are 3-1 ATS when coming off a loss and that includes winning all five games outright. Conversely, Louisville has won both of its games following previous losses however it failed to cover both of those games after laying huge points at home. The Cardinals have also failed to cover both games as road favorites as they defeated Wake Forest and Western Kentucky by nine points each away from home in games they truly should have dominated. As mentioned, this is not a typical Pittsburgh team that we are used to seeing but it is still very strong and it has not been a home underdog since 2010. In 12 seasons under head coach Jamie Dixon, Pittsburgh has been a home underdog or pickem only five times and has won all five of those games outright so while those games mean nothing in comparison to here, it shows what how coaching comes into play and taking pride in these situations. 10* (844) Pittsburgh Panthers |
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01-25-15 | Arizona State v. Stanford -8 | Top | 70-89 | Win | 100 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
We made a horrible call on California on Thursday night as it got pummeled by Arizona St., sending the Bears to their fifth straight loss. It enabled the Sun Devils to pick up their first road win of the season but I expect that to be short lived. It was the second straight victory for Arizona St. as it defeated Colorado prior to that but the Buffaloes were without two of their top three leading scorers as Josh Scott and Xavier Johnson were both out. Things will be more difficult come Saturday as the Sun Devils will be facing Stanford which is coming off its first home loss of the season as it went down by seven points against seventh ranked Arizona. Stanford has lost 10 in a row to Arizona, with its last victory a 76-60 triumph on Jan. 4, 2009 at Maples Pavilion so it was far from shocking but now they will be out to rebound from that to keep pace in the Pac 12. a game like that can typically touch to recover from but the Cardinal can ill afford to fall two games out. Stanford is averaging only 10.4 turnovers per game, a total that is tied for the Pac 12 lead and ranks 15th-best in the country. The Cardinal has committed 10 miscues or fewer in 10 games despite committing 14 against the Wildcats. Stanford has covered eight of the last 10 meetings including four straight at home by an average of 14.5 ppg. 10* (662) Stanford Cardinal |
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01-24-15 | Detroit Pistons v. Milwaukee Bucks +2 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Milwaukee has lost two straight games which has not happened a lot this season and the Bucks also failed to cover the spread in both of those games, which is even more of a rarity. They have won 13 of 20 games following a loss while going 16-4 ATS in those games and getting points at home presents a great opportunity to keep this massive streak alive. Milwaukee has been average at home this season as it is a game under .500 but that record could be a lot better as six losses have come by six points or less including four by just one possession. The next three games as well as five of the next seven are on the road making this a big game to get back over .500. Detroit is playing its best basketball of the season as most are aware of as it has won 12 of its last 15 games with two of those losses coming against the hottest team in the NBA, the Hawks. Being favored on the road however is a little too aggressive against a .500 team. The Pistons have been road favorites twice this season and while they have won and covered, those were against the Magic and Knicks, two teams that are 16 and 28 games under .500 respectively so you can see the difference in class here. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while the Bucks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (504) Milwaukee Bucks |
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01-24-15 | Richmond v. Dayton -6.5 | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
We played against Dayton on Tuesday as it went to Davidson and was pounded by 17 points which snapped an eight-game winning streak as well as a five-game cover streak. The Flyers didn't play bad against the Wildcats but they had no answer for Davidson's three-point shooting as it went 12-23 from long range while Dayton managed only three made three-pointers. Now the Flyers are back home where they will be out to rebound from their worst loss of the season. They are 10-0 at home this season, winning their games by an average of 15.8 ppg and going back, they have won 15 straight games at Tom Blackburn Court. At home, the Flyers are shooting 38.2 percent from three-point range and averaging 71.4 ppg. Only one team this year has scored more than 70 points against the Flyers at home. The Flyers are 21-0 when limiting opponents to 60 points or less during the previous two seasons. That spells bad news for Richmond which has started to turn things around after a slow start but the Spiders are still not a good team on the road. They are 0-6 on the road and have had the luxury of playing just two true road games since December 7th. To their credit, the Spiders have faced some tough opposition but it doesn't get any easier here. Dayton has won 10 of the last 11 meetings here and that run continues in a big way on Saturday. 10* (612) Dayton Flyers |
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