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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-16 | Northeastern v. Oakland -8 | Top | 61-59 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Northeastern is coming off a very impressive win as it upset Michigan St. on Sunday by eight points as a 10-point underdog. The short turnaround is not in the Huskies favor however as they stay in Michigan to face a very strong Oakland team. The win moved Northeastern to 6-5 on the season and while those five losses have come by just 17 points combined, they came against some suspect opposition. A loss to Harvard can be overlooked but defeats against Stony Brook, Cornell, LIU-Brooklyn and Boston University cannot. Those teams are a combined 18-25. Oakland meanwhile is off to a 9-1 start with its lone loss coming against a very solid Nevada team by just four points in Alaska as the Wolf Pack made six more three-pointers than the Golden Grizzlies. They will not be overlooking Northeastern here after its big win despite having their own game against Michigan St. on deck tomorrow night. The Golden Grizzlies have led by at least 13 points in every game this season and have only surrendered one second half lead. Oakland has only seen two second half deficits and have led for 190 of 200 minutes in the final 20 minutes. Going back, the Golden Grizzlies are 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (526) Oakland Golden Grizzlies |
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12-20-16 | Memphis v. Western Kentucky OVER 79.5 | Top | 31-51 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
The scoreboard will be working on overload tonight in Boca Raton as two of the top offense square off. This is the highest total of all bowl games and for good reason as Western Kentucky is ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and No. 7 in total offense while Memphis is ranked No. 17 and No. 32 in those categories respectively. The defenses do not come close to those rankings so stopping the opposing offenses will be a challenge. Typically, we would look at the contrarian play here but digging deeper into the numbers show that the first over of the bowl season will hit. Western Kentucky has played only four games against teams ranked inside the top 50 in total offense and it was lit up by allowing an average of 45 ppg. Memphis meanwhile has faced five teams ranked No 50 or better in total offense and it allowed and even worse 48.4 ppg. These defenses are clearly skewed by the soft schedules they have faced so we see no reason that the offenses will be moving up and down the field all night. This is the highest total that each team has seen all season but the Hilltoppers and Tigers are a combined 5-0 to the over when the total was 70 or higher. Going back, the over is 12-3-1 in the Hilltoppers last 16 games against teams with a winning record while the over is 4-0 in the Tigers last four games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (215) Memphis Tigers/(216) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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12-19-16 | Panthers +7 v. Redskins | Top | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The Redskins opened as a -4.5-point favorite and the line has steadily risen to a touchdown in most places and that is a big jump for two teams that are more even than the records may show. Washington is coming off a three-game roadtrip where it went 1-2 and after a four-game winning streak earlier in the season, the Redskins are just 3-3-1 over their last seven games. They have played a tough schedule and have been favored by more than 3.5 points only once this season and that was against Cleveland. Of their seven wins, only two have come by more than seven points. Obviously, it has been a disappointing season for the Panthers who will be going from playing in the Super Bowl to missing the playoffs. Only nine times has the Super Bowl runner-up finished below .500, something the Panthers can avoid only by winning their final three games. Carolina has only put up two bad games this season and those were against 9-4-1 Seattle and 9-5 Atlanta as it has outgained six of its other 11 opponents. Five of eight losses have come by three points or less while in the other defeat against Minnesota, the Panthers outgained the Vikings by 95 total yards. The pressure is squarely on Washington here and that is often a bad ingredient in games of such magnitude. The Redskins are 10-25-2 ATS in their last 37 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (331) Carolina Panthers |
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12-19-16 | Suns v. Wolves -5.5 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Two of the three worst teams in the NBA square off tonight and while the records are bad, the young talent on these teams is some of the best in the league. The Suns hit the road on a two-game losing streak with losses against the Spurs and Thunder and while those were a given, they have struggled on the road, even against the bad teams. They tend to step down to the level of competition as they are just 4-9 ATS against losing teams. Minnesota has lost seven straight games at home but the teams it has faced has a lot to do with that. Six of those seven teams possess winning records while the lone losing team was Detroit which is just one game under .500. The last loss came on Saturday and it was a tough one. The Timberwolves led the Rockets by 12 points with just over two minutes to play. That lead was quickly squandered and Minnesota eventually lost in overtime. Luckily, there has been a day in-between to forget that meltdown and try to get some momentum back. Going back, the Suns are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400 while the Timberwolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (708) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-19-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Syracuse -12 | Top | 57-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
It has been a rough stretch for Syracuse which has gone 2-4 over its last six games after a 4-0 start. The latest setback came against rival Georgetown on Saturday and the difference came down to free throws as the Hoyas made eight more free throws than the Orange. Should Syracuse had won that game, the spread in this game might be a little higher but it would be a no play based on the possible letdown. Instead, the Orange will be out to make up for that and in a big way after suffering their first home loss of the season. Additionally, the Orange lost just their third nonconference home game over the last nine years and are now 78-3 in their last 81 nonconference home games. Eastern Michigan lost at Vermont on Saturday by eight points which was its second loss this season where no line was posted and those games should not be lost. That snapped a four-game winning streak and while they are 6-4, three of those victories came against non-division I teams. This is a good matchup for Syracuse to get its struggling offense in gear as Eastern Michigan likes to push the pace and that can lead to some easy transition baskets for the Orange. 10* (712) Syracuse Orange |
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12-19-16 | Central Michigan v. Tulsa OVER 69.5 | Top | 10-55 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
Day one of bowl season had five games on Saturday with all five of those staying under the total, four of which stayed under by a touchdown or more. Now we get a matchup where we have strength on offense going up against the weakness on defense and this is the case on both sides which can translate to a lot of points. Tulsa brings in a very potent rushing attack as it averages 262.4 ypg on 5.1 ypc and it has outrushed all but three opponents this season. On the other side, Central Michigan has trouble stopping the run as it is allowing 161.3 ypg on 4.5 ypc so the Golden Hurricane should gash the Chippewas defense. The Central Michigan strength on offense is with its passing game behind quarterback Cooper Rush and while he tends to force throws at times, he has the ability to make big plays. Tulsa allows nearly 250 ypg through the air and has only seven interceptions so the Chippewas can stay in this game with their passing game should they trail by any significant amount. this Is the highest total that Central Michigan has seen but for good reason based on the matchup and for Tulsa, it has surpassed this number in seven of its last 10 games with two of those missing the over by just one point. 10* Over (213) Central Michigan Chippewas/(214) Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 57 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. The NFL flex schedule moved this game to the primetime slot that before the season would never have come close to playing on Sunday night. The Cowboys are now 11-2 on the season following their second loss to the Giants by a combined four points but are overvalued here once again. Dallas has outgained only one opponent in its last five games and while it is 4-1 in those games, there could have been more losses but was fortunate. While the Cowboys are the surprise of the league, Tampa Bay is not far behind. The Buccaneers are 8-5 and tied with Atlanta for first place in the AFC South. They have won five straight games as the defense has risen to the occasion by allowing just 12.8 ppg during the winning streak. This is certainly a big test but Tampa Bay passed the test already with wins over Atlanta, Kansas City and Seattle so it will not be intimidated here. The Buccaneers are 5-1 on the road and they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they forced three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. This situation is 95-47 ATS (66.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (305) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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12-18-16 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +1.5 | Top | 82-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Utah brings in a three-game winning streak on Sunday to visit Memphis and it remains a game ahead of Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division. Going back further, the Jazz are 10-2 over their last 12 games following a 7-8 start to the season. While the recent stretch is very solid, the schedule has played a big role in that as 10 of the 12 games have come at home and the two road games have been against the Lakers and Timberwolves. Overall, eight of those 10 games came against teams with losing records. Utah has won just three games against teams ranked in the top 16 and that is tied for second lowest in the NBA, ahead of only Philadelphia which has two. The Grizzlies lost their last game which was the first game back for Mike Conley after he missed nine games with a back injury. He struggled from the floor as did the whole team which shot 37.7 percent including going just 5-25 from long range but we should see a much better effort tonight. Memphis has lost consecutive games only twice all season as it is 7-2 in its first nine games following a loss. On the season, the Grizzlies are 6-2 straight up and against the number as home underdogs while the Jazz are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (510) Memphis Grizzlies |
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12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -125 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the DENVER BRONCOS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Patriots picked up a solid win last Monday night to make it four straight wins and are now just one win away from clinching another AFC East title. They can also clinch with a Miami loss on Saturday so this game means a lot more for the Broncos. New England is the only remaining undefeated team on the road and the public is riding that as the Patriots are again a huge consensus this week as a road chalk. Denver lost in Tennessee last week despite outgaining the Titans by 95 yards and the Broncos have actually outgained their opponents in three of their last four losses so they have been better than their 8-5 record shows. A great angle is in play here with the better defense at home and getting points on top of it. New England is clearly playing at a high level but it has struggled here with three straight losses in Denver, the last two coming when it was favored. The Patriots are part of a negative situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 265 or more passing ypg going up against teams allowing between 150 and 185 passing ypg, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (326) Denver Broncos |
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12-18-16 | Georgia State v. Old Dominion -6 | Top | 46-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
Old Dominion is 5-4 but has played better than that record shows. The Monarchs lost in overtime against Louisville and then followed that up with a six-point loss the next day in a clear letdown spot. They are coming off a tough three-point loss against 8-3 VCU, their second straight loss so they will be out to rebound this afternoon. It has been a tough schedule thus far as not only has Old Dominion played some stiff competition but there has been a lot travel involved. This is the first time this season where the Monarchs have gotten to play back-to-back home games and this is just the fourth home game of the season. Going back, they are 34-5 in their last 39 games played at the Ted Constant Convocation Center. The Panthers enter the game with a 6-3 overall record, are 6-0 at home/on neutral hardwood, but 0-3 on the road. Losses against Auburn and Purdue were expected but Georgia St. has a winnable game at Mississippi St. but lost by 22 points. The Panthers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning straight up record while also going 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of fewer than seven points. Meanwhile the Monarchs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS and 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (518) Old Dominion Monarchs |
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12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our AFC Game of the Year. This game got bumped from the Sunday night time slot and moved to 1:00 ET which helps Cincinnati because of its struggles in the limelight. After going winless in four straight games, the Bengals have won two straight and while making the playoffs will take a minor miracle, they are still in the hunt. The good news is that they face the Steelers and Ravens at home so hope is still there. Pittsburgh roughed up the Bills last week, namely Le'Veon Bell who torched Buffalo for 236 yards rushing and three touchdowns. He will find the going a little tougher this week but because of four straight victories, the Steelers are now favored by more on the road than they were last week in Buffalo. This is the first time this season that Cincinnati is getting points at home and the feeling it is unjustified in a divisional game of this magnitude. Here, we play against road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games. This situation is 150-95 ATS (61.2 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record and will step up to the occasion on Sunday once again. 10* (330) Cincinnati Bengals |
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12-18-16 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | Top | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. After destroying the Jets on Monday night, the Colts put up a stinker last week at home against Houston and they now sit a game out of first place in the AFC South. We played against them last week because the line was way off but we are backing them this week based on what looks like not only another bad line, but a must win spot. Indianapolis travels to Oakland next week which makes this one pretty big. The Vikings started the season 5-0 but their bye week came and since then, they have gone just 2-6 as the offense has looked pretty putrid. While they scored 25 points in Jacksonville last week, they had to settle for four field goals which is not a good sign at all. The Minnesota defense has done its job for the most part but the offense has not been able to take advantage. The defense will be without safety Harrison Smith and while that was not a factor last week against Blake Bortles, it will be a factor this week against Andrew Luck. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 27-9 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (313) Indianapolis Colts |
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12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 23 m | Show |
Miami picked up a big win last week against Arizona but at the same time, suffered a big blow with the loss of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Luckily, he is not out for the rest of the season but his loss will be felt as Matt Moore takes over in his absence. Despite an 8-5 record, the Dolphins are getting outgained by over 40 ypg and that is the fifth worst differential in the league. You have to give the Jets credit last week for bouncing back from that awful effort against the Colts and also coming back from a 14-0 deficit last week against the 49ers to win in overtime. The last time they were featured at home in a national TV game was that game against Indianapolis and you can guarantee their effort will be better as to not get embarrassed again. overall, New York has struggled at home but it has been competitive for the most part and now are getting the second most points at home on the season. The Jets fall into a great situation where we play against favorites coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Jets are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road divisional games. 10* (304) New York Jets |
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12-17-16 | Hornets +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 107-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This line was not released with the rest of the openers due to the status of Kemba Walker who missed the Hornets game on Friday due to a personal matter but it was announced yesterday that he will be back for this one. We are going contrarian with this game as many factors point toward Atlanta but the line has taken that into consideration. The Hornets fell to 0-4 on this current five-game roadtrip and they will look to avoid the shutout tonight and remain ahead of the Hawks in the Southeast Division, a lead that has shrunk to a half-game. Atlanta pulled off the upset win in Toronto last night to make it three wins in four games following a dreadful 1-10 run. That was a tough stretch with a lot of travel and not a lot of rest so the Hawks seem to be getting back to their normal selves. Atlanta is just 7-5 at home and one real contrarian factor is the no rest attribute as Charlotte has failed to cover all five games in the second of a back-to-back while Atlanta is 3-0 ATS playing with no rest in an away to home situation. As for the Hornets, they won four of the five games played the night before and the lone loss was an overtime one so this is a completely different situation showing that 0-5 record is pretty skewed. We should see a lot of effort from the Hornets to break this skid and a rested Walker can only help. 10* (707) Charlotte Hornets |
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12-17-16 | Houston -3.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
Typically, we tend to shy away from team in bowl games that are playing with an interim coach after the head coach moved on to a different team. The situation in Houston is different however. Tom Herman left to become the head coach of Texas, and he is taking a few assistants with him to Austin. Houston initially named defensive coordinator Todd Orlando to be the interim coach for the bowl game, but recently announced it had promoted offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to the position of head coach and he will be making his debut Saturday. This is a pretty big deal for motivational purposes. San Diego St. faltered toward the end of the season as it lost its final two regular season games before narrowly defeating Wyoming in the MWC Championship. The Aztecs were outgained in all three of those games and they did not fare well when playing good teams as they went 2-3 against fellow bowl teams while going 8-0 against non-bowl and FCS teams. San Diego St. is one of the best rushing teams in the nation as it is ranked No. 7 in rushing offense but it will struggle here facing the No. 3 ranked rushing defense and the stop units are more important at this stage. On the other side, Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. was the only player to average over 300 yards passing per game and over 45 rushing yards per game, and the Cougars' offense finished the regular season fourth nationally in total offense (349.6 ypg). The Cougars are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game while the Aztecs have failed to cover four straight games against winning teams. 10* (203) Houston Cougars |
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12-17-16 | Ohio State +9 v. UCLA | Top | 73-86 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
UCLA was expected to contend with Oregon and Arizona in the Pac 12 but not many saw what a terrific start it has begun. The Bruins are 11-0 and a win over Kentucky vaulted them to No. 2 in the country. There was no letdown from that though as they destroyed Michigan and UC-Santa Barbara as the offense hit triple-digits both times. Now they will be facing a very tough defense and will be putting their eight-game ATS winning streak on the line. Ohio St. shook off an embarrassing loss at home to Florida Atlantic with a win over Connecticut while its only other loss came at the hands of 8-1 Virginia on the road by just a bucket making that defeat to the Owls a real head scratcher. The Buckeyes returned all five starters and their top six scorers from last season and they currently have six players averaging at least 9.2 ppg. If this game was at Pauley Pavilion, it may be a different story but catching the Bruins in Las Vegas is a great opportunity to pull off a major upset. We will grab the generous points based on the UCLA spread run nonetheless. 10* (783) Ohio St. Buckeyes |
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12-17-16 | Arkansas v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
Texas has had a roller coaster start to the season, similar to last season before it rallied late to make the NCAA Tournament. A return trip is expected however it already has four losses and cannot ill afford any more before conference action starts later this month. All four losses have come against teams that are 7-3 or better so at least there have been no non-quality defeats and a win here adds a solid quality win to the record. The Razorbacks are off to an 8-1 start but the schedule has been pretty tame thus far. Arkansas has traveled outside of Bud Walton Arena only once this season and that resulted in a 14-point loss in Minnesota and while this is a neutral court game, the Razorbacks are tough to be trusted laying points away from home. Many feel Texas is an overrated team but they play hard every game and give 110% percent to head coach Shaka Smart and the outright win is far from out of the question here. 10* (770) Texas Longhorns |
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12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -7.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 17 m | Show |
Bowl season kicks off on Saturday in Albuquerque as UTSA squares off against New Mexico. The Roadrunners are making their first ever bowl appearance and while that seem like a motivational advantage, it really is not as teams in these situations, along with those making their first appearance in a very long time, are just happy to be here and are enjoying the festivities that go along with it. They are coming off a win over Charlotte to secure a bowl bid but this is a below average team that was outgained in eight of their 12 games. New Mexico is making its second straight appearance here and will be out to make up for the loss last season against Arizona despite outgaining the Wildcats. The Lobos have not won a bowl game since 2007 which happens to be the last time they have won this many games as they come in 8-4 including a 6-1 record over its last seven games. Few teams employ the option as effectively as New Mexico, which led the FBS in rushing yards this season with 360.9 ypg. What's more, the Lobos broke off a staggering 6.81 ypc and they fall into the ever-effective rushing situation where one team dominates all three rushing averages (more ypc on offense, less ypc on defense and a + ypc overall). The Roadrunners are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win while New Mexico is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games coming off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog. Look for the Lobos to pull away comfortably on their home field. 10* (202) New Mexico Lobos |
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12-17-16 | Texas Tech v. Richmond +4.5 | Top | 79-72 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
After suffering a pair of losses, Richmond bounce back with a win over Maryland-Baltimore County last Saturday and while that is far from a statement win, it was a much needed victory. That moved the Spiders back over .500 on the season and this would provide a must needed out of conference quality win. Texas Tech is 9-1 with the lone loss coming against Auburn in the first round of the Cancun Challenge. The Red Raiders have won six straight games since then but it is important to note that this is the first true road game for them this season and once it gets this late, it is a great angle to back. Richmond has lost two home games this season, one against a solid Old Dominion team and the other against Wake Forest which has turned into a pretty big rivalry. These teams met at Texas Tech last season and the Red Raiders prevailed by 15 points, setting up a big revenge situation in the rematch. 10* (722) Richmond Spiders |
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12-16-16 | Bucks v. Bulls -4.5 | Top | 95-69 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Milwaukee defeated the Bulls last night in the first game of this home-and-home set which snapped a three-game skid and moved the Bucks back to .500 on the season. This is the start of a rare scheduling situation where Milwaukee is playing three straight home-and-home sets with this one followed by two-game series against the Cavaliers and Wizards. The Bucks have had their struggles on the road this season as they are 3-6 and those three victories have come against teams with losing records and the nine road games are tied for the fewest in the NBA which is part of the reason Milwaukee has played the easiest schedule in the NBA. Chicago encounters a quick revenge spot after the loss last night and it will be out to avoid a third straight loss after going down here against Minnesota on Tuesday after blowing a 21-point lead so there will be no lack of motivation. The Bulls are 7-4 at home and while they are 0-3 straight up and ATS playing with no rest going from the home to the road, this is the first instance of playing with no rest at home following a road game. Milwaukee is 0-4 straight up and ATS when playing with no rest which includes a 0-3 mark when going from home to the road with the three losses coming by 10 ppg. Going back, the Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (510) Chicago Bulls |
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12-16-16 | Nets v. Magic -6 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Brooklyn is coming off a rare win on Wednesday as it defeated the Lakers by 10 points but that puts the Nets in a tough spot here. They have yet to win consecutive games this season as they are 0-6 following a victory and four of those losses have come on the road. Those four defeats have come by an average of 16.8 ppg which should not come as a huge surprise considering that Brooklyn is 1-10 on the highway for the season. Orlando lost its last game as it fell to the Clippers by five points as the struggles at home continues. The Magic are 7-7 on the road but just 4-9 at home which puts them in the rare case of having a better road record than home record, one of only six teams that can boast this. That may be concerning to back Orlando here but this is a game they need and the matchup is in their favor in the first meeting against the Nets this season following a four-game sweep last season. Orlando is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games after allowing 100 points or more four straight games while going 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after playing four consecutive games as an underdog. Additionally, we play against teams allowing 103 or more ppg on the season going up against an opponent after allowing 110 points or more two straight games. This situation is 63-35 ATS (64.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) Orlando Magic |
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12-15-16 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1 | Top | 120-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
We played against Denver on Tuesday as it closed out a six-game roadtrip with a 20-point loss at Dallas as a road favorite to finish 2-4 on the trek. The Nuggets now return home where they have struggled this season but they are slowly but surely coming back to full health and are in good position to get back into the win column. Denver has played a very tough schedule this season as well as having 15 of its first 25 games taking place on the road while having home games against teams with winning records in eight of its 10 home games. Portland is coming off a win against Oklahoma City on Tuesday which snapped a four-game losing streak but that came at home and the road has not been a kind place. After a 3-1 start, the Blazers are 2-9 in their last 11 games on the highway and while some of those defeats have been close, most have been blowouts. Portland has won just three of 12 games this season following a victory and in all 25 Portland games this season, the favorite has won 20 of those so the short price with Denver tonight suggests that a win means a cover as well. The Nuggets fall into a solid situation as we play on teams that are averaging 103 or more ppg on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 182-121 ATS (60.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (708) Denver Nuggets |
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12-15-16 | Coastal Carolina +11.5 v. Auburn | Top | 72-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
On paper, Auburn looks to be the dominant team in this matchup based on the fact it comes from the SEC while Coastal Carolina is playing its first season in the Sun Belt Conference. This is not the case however as the Tigers are coming off a brutal loss against Boston College at MSG on Monday and will be shorthanded tonight. Auburn basketball coach Bruce Pearl has suspended sophomores Bryce Brown and Horace Spencer who were arrested for misdemeanor marijuana possession. Both were starters which averaged over 20 minutes per game and while their scoring averages are nothing great, it is the other things that will be missed. Brown is the best defender for the Tigers while Spencer is considered the best rebounder on the team. The Chanticleers, who currently rank 11th in the country and first in the Sun Belt Conference in rebounds (43.8) will present challenges similar to what the Tigers have already faced this year. Coastal Carolina is 5-6 overall and while it is 0-3 on the road, it has performed better of late with two straight covers as a double-digit underdog. The Tigers will have only six players available tonight that are averaging more than 10 minutes per game which is far from ideal. Coastal Carolina falls into a solid situation where we play on road teams in a game involving two up-tempo teams averaging 60 or more shots per game after two straight games allowing 37 percent shooting or less. This situation is 75-39 ATS (65.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (719) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers |
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12-14-16 | Pistons -4 v. Mavs | Top | 95-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
We won with Dallas on Monday as the Mavericks never trailed in their 20-point win over the Mavericks. It has been a tough start to the season for Dallas which is now 6-18 and while we have given them the benefit of the doubt of playing the toughest schedule in the NBA, that argument can be tossed out tonight. Reason being, the Mavericks have struggled against the better teams in the league as their best win has come against No. 11 Chicago based on current power rankings. Dallas is 1-15 on the season against teams ranked No. 16 or better and while it may not seem like it, Detroit is a top ten team going into tonight. The Pistons are just 13-13 but they are better than that record shows and there will be plenty of motivation tonight. They are coming off an embarrassing 20-point loss at home against Philadelphia on Sunday and the have been a solid bounce back team of late, going 4-0 in their last four games following a loss. Additionally, Detroit is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games coming off a loss as a favorite and falls into a fantastic situation here. We play against home teams that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home loss. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (515) Detroit Pistons |
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12-14-16 | St. Louis v. Southern Illinois -11 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The St. Louis basketball program has slipped tremendously over the last couple years as it has gone from 27 wins in 2014 to just 11 wins in each of the last two seasons. It is expected to be another rough year and a 3-6 start to the season is looking like that will happen again. to the Billikens credit, they have lost to some very good teams but they have not been competitive for the most part as three losses have come by 30, 31 and 30 points. The problem now is the system as it does not fit with the players. Travis Ford is in his first season at St. Louis and he preached playing up-tempo but St. Louis has topped 60 points only once in its last five games and is shooting 38.2 percent on the season. A 45-43 win over 3-6 Chicago St. in its last game is nothing to get excited about. Southern Illinois should be pretty focused tonight following a pair of losses over the last week against Louisville and Sam Houston St. The Salukis are 5-5 but they are better than the record shows and this is the first lined game of the season against a team with a losing record. The Salukis are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while St. Louis is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 road games after playing a game as a road underdog while going 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (528) Southern Illinois Salukis |
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12-14-16 | Lakers +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 97-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
A win over Chicago on the last day of November got the Lakers to .500 but December has not been kind as they are 0-7 this month following a loss in Sacramento on Monday to open this seven-game roadtrip leading up to Christmas. Tonight presents a great opportunity to get out of this slump and while a losing record is not ideal, Los Angeles has played the No. 2 toughest schedule in the league. Brooklyn has lost two straight games and is just 2-12 in its last 14 games and only a handful of those losses have even been competitive. Now the Nets are being asked to lay points for the first time this season and while that can be justified based on the Lakers losing streak, there is a talent gap here. The Lakers have welcomed back D'Angelo Russell who has played the last two games after missing 11 games with a knee injury and while his minutes are limited, having him back is big. Los Angeles has a contrarian situation on its side as we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 where the line is +3 to -3 after six or more consecutive losses, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1996. Additionally, the Nets are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (509) Los Angeles Lakers |
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12-13-16 | Monmouth +3 v. Memphis | Top | 82-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This line jumps out as being a short price for Memphis and the public agrees as the Tigers are the biggest basketball consensus of the night. Well, it is short for a reason. Memphis is 7-2 to open the season including a 6-0 record at home and while it has a pair of decent wins over Iowa and UAB, this is the biggest home test of the season. While it is not a complete rebuilding project for Tubby Smith, who is in his first season with the Tigers, this could be a tough transitional period. Memphis has a dynamic player in Dedric Lawson who leads the team in scoring at 20.7 ppg, but there is not much after him. They have only seven players that are averaging double-digits in minutes played. Monmouth got snubbed last season for a spot in the NCAA Tournament and the mission this season is to not let that happen again. The Hawks won the MAAC regular season championship and had numerous quality non-conference wins but their 28-8 record was not good enough. They opened the season with losses against South Carolina and Syracuse but have won eight straight games since then and this is a big game because while quality wins are big for the future, avoiding non-quality losses are just as important. Monmouth has nine players averaging at least 10 minutes per game so this is a very deep and talented team. The Hawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog or pick while Memphis is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games coming off a home win over the last 2 seasons. 10* (721) Monmouth Hawks |
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12-13-16 | Grizzlies v. Cavs -13 | Top | 86-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Cleveland has won four straight games following that three-game losing streak and it has been winning in dominant fashion. While this line may seem large against a quality opponent, it is this big for a reason and there is an angle to go along with it that backs it up. The Cavaliers are 11-2 at home this season with their last five wins coming by double-digits. Memphis has been even hotter as it has won six straight games despite a rash of injuries with players coming in and out of the lineup. The Grizzlies are still without Mike Conley for at least another month and they will also be without center Marc Gasol tonight who is resting tonight with another game against Cleveland tomorrow. Cleveland lost only eight regular season home games last year and one of those came against Memphis and the Cavaliers likely have not forgotten that. It was a game where they were not necessarily outplayed but it was one where they gave it away by committing 25 turnovers. The angle is that we play against road underdogs of 10 or more points after allowing 90 points or less two straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 105 points or more. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being +17.3 ppg. Additionally, Cleveland is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after three consecutive covers as a favorite while the Grizzlies are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (702) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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12-12-16 | South Carolina v. Seton Hall -2.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
South Carolina is off to an 8-0 start and is currently ranked No 19 in latest AP Poll and this is looking a lot like last season. The Gamecocks started last season 15-0 including a 13-0 sweep in non-conference action but they really did not play anyone too strong and it showed once the SEC season started as they struggled to stay consistence. They have a pair of solid wins this season over Michigan and Syracuse but here comes the toughest test to date in my opinion. They will have to do it without leading scorer Sindarius Thornwell who has been suspended. Seton Hall is 7-2 following a 25-9 record last season that included a Big East Tournament Championship. The Pirates are coming off a tournament win in Hawaii and while this is not a true home game, it will feel like it being so close to their campus in New Jersey. They have a quality win at Iowa and while a loss to Stanford was bad, a five-point loss to Florida in the same tournament was not a bad one. Seton Hall has had to replace Isaiah Whitehead but four other starters returned as well as some strong incoming talent including four-start recruit Myles Powell, one of four players averaging double-digit scoring. Seton Hall is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games after allowing 60 points or less and have a good matchup here to go along with a good line on top of it. 10* (520) Seton Hall Pirates |
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12-12-16 | Nuggets v. Mavs +1.5 | Top | 92-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
We played against Denver on Saturday and that backfired as it won in Orlando by eight points, snapping its two-game losing streak. Putting together winning streaks in the issue however as the Nuggets are 1-7 this season following a win but those of those wins came on their home floor. This is actually the fourth time they have been favored on this roadtrip which is surprising considering 9-15 overall record. Dallas defeated Indiana on Friday then laid an egg in Houston the next night losing by 22 points. The Mavericks are 5-18 which is the worst record in the NBA and while injuries have been the main factor, playing the toughest schedule in the league has not helped much either. 16 of their 23 games have come against the top 16 in the NBA including 10 against the top 10 where they are 0-10. Now stepping down in competition, the Mavericks are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. They have a great situation on their side as we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a road win. This situation is 52-20 ATS (72.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Denver is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games coming off a road win over the last two seasons. 10* (510) Dallas Mavericks |
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12-12-16 | Ravens +6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Ravens have won four out of their last five game to improve to 7-5 overall but they sit a half-game behind Pittsburgh, which has won four straight games, in the AFC North. That will set up a big showdown Christmas Day when they meet but Baltimore needs to worry about the present first. The Ravens lead the NFL in total defense and scoring defense and that is a recipe for success late in the season when making a playoff charge. Another key factor is the offensive line. The Ravens are expected to go with the same starting lineup on the offensive line for the fourth straight game which comes after Baltimore had seven different lineups the previous seven games. New England is the frontrunner in the AFC East as it has a 2.5-game lead on Miami and is on pace for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. This is no easy out however as the Patriots are pretty banged up on offense. In addition to the absence of Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett is banged up and Danny Amendola is out. Baltimore has beaten Tom Brady twice in New England in the postseason and could be 4-0 against him if Lee Evans had caught that pass in the end zone in 2011 and the Ravens had held on to a 14-point lead in 2014. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-18 ATS (69 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (133) Baltimore Ravens |
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12-11-16 | Nevada v. Washington -4.5 | Top | 87-85 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Nevada is off to a solid 7-2 start and following a loss to Iona in the finals of the Great Alaska Shootout, the Wolf Pack have responded with a pair of double-digit wins over Bradley and Pacific. They have taken care of business at home in a big way with four blowout wins but hitting the road for a second straight game could be an issue considering they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog. They are without Elijah Foster however, who is third on the team in scoring and second in rebounding as he has been suspended for the last five games and remains out. Washington returns to Seattle for its first home game since November 22 and this is the perfect time. The Huskies have lost three straight games and none have been close as they dropped back-to-back games against TCU by 13 and 15 points and most recent, lost at Gonzaga by 27 points. Those losses should put a spark into Washington as it looks to get back over .500 on the season prior to its week off for finals. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of less than seven points and will pull away in this one. 10* (730) Washington Huskies |
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12-11-16 | Falcons v. Rams +6 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 13 m | Show |
The Rams opened the season 3-1 and were looking like a possible playoff contender but the quarterback position has hurt them ever since. Jared Goff has taken over for Case Keenum and the results have been inconsistent to say the least. He is back home for his second start in Los Angeles and his first one here against Miami was not a bad one as he managed the game well as the defense let it slip away. Still, this is a very strong defense that is No. 10 overall and will give the Falcons some issues in their passing game. Atlanta lost a tough one last week as it allowed a defensive touchdown as well as a special teams score not mention a game losing two-point conversion return. Atlanta is now tied with Tampa Bay for first place in the AFC South so this is certainly a big game for the Falcons. They have more incentive but the linesmakers have taken that into consideration as they are laying the most points they have put down on the highway all season. Plain and simple, it is too many against a very strong defense. With the loss last week, the Falcons are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites and they are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after a loss by six or fewer points. Meanwhile, the Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (130) Los Angeles Rams |
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12-11-16 | Cardinals v. Dolphins -1 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 70 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for out NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. This is a great setup for the Dolphins as they look to remain in the playoff hunt in the AFC. Riding a six-game winning streak going into Week 13, Miami went to Baltimore last Sunday and got hammered 38-6 while getting outgained by 219 total yards. That dropped the Dolphins to 7-5 and took them out of a Wild Card spot but a win here coupled with a Baltimore loss in New England on Monday gets them right back in. Miami ends the season with three divisional games which makes this a big one. Arizona heads to the east coast after snapping a two-game skid with a win over Washington last week. It was not very pretty for the Cardinals which are not playing well at all with wins over the Redskins and Buccaneers being the only ones of value. The three other wins have come against two teams a combined 4-20. They are still in the playoff race as well but they have struggled on the road with the lone win coming in San Francisco and they outgained the 49ers by just two total yards. The results last week are giving us value this week as the typical adjustments have to made after one week and not looking at the overall picture. 10* (116) Miami Dolphins |
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12-11-16 | Bengals v. Browns +5.5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The winless Browns are running out of chances to avoid a 0-16 season and this could be the final chance to snag a victory. The remaining three games for Cleveland are at Buffalo, at home against San Diego and at Pittsburgh so this is the easiest of its schedule to end the season. Additionally, this is a very good spot for the Browns as they are coming off their bye week after 12 straight games and they will be getting RGIII back at quarterback which has been the shakiest area for them on offense after he went out. Cincinnati kept its very slim playoff hopes alive with a big win over the Eagles last week which was its first win since Week Seven when it defeated the Browns. Andy Dalton finally put a complete game together but this team cannot be trusted on the road where the Bengals are 1-5 with the only win coming against the Jets by a single point. Here, we play on Underdogs or pickems that are revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, winless on the season. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1983. Look for the Browns to collect their first victory of the season. 10* (112) Cleveland Browns |
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12-11-16 | Texans +6 v. Colts | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 70 h 49 m | Show |
We won with the Colts on Monday night and while it was a play on Indianapolis, it was just as much of a play against the Jets which failed to show up right from the start. After that 41-10 win, the Colts moved into a tie with Houston and Tennessee for first place in the AFC South making this a big game for both sides. This line is not telling us that this is a divisional game between teams with the same record as Indianapolis is laying way too big of a number here. Houston has dropped three straight games following its eight-point loss in Green Bay last week. All three losses came by just one possession however so things have been close and everything points to an even closer one here. The offense has been bad over this stretch as the Texans have managed just 46 points over the three games but they will be taking on a very poor defense this week that is ranked No. 28 overall and No. 28 in passing. That is welcome news for Brock Osweiler who has struggled in his first season with the Texans. Houston has covered six straight road division games while the Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (109) Houston Texans |
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12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills +2 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 48 m | Show |
The Bills wasted a golden opportunity last week when they blew a 24-9 lead against the Raiders and lost to fall back to 6-6 on the season. They are currently the No. 10 seed in the AFC and are two games out of the final Wild Card spot so they need to basically win out and hope for a lot help. The schedule is very manageable however as this is the start of three straight home games and they close the season in New York against the Jets. Buffalo has been outgained only four times since starting the season 0-2 and of those four losses, three could have resulted in wins. The Steelers have won three straight games following a four-game losing streak but they are tough team to trust on the road. They are 3-3 but one of those wins came at winless Cleveland while another came at Indianapolis which was without Andrew Luck. They finish the season with three straight divisional games and the AFC West is still within grasp as they are tied with Baltimore for first place. This is definitely a big game for Pittsburgh as well but it should not be favored on the road here as these teams are more equal than their names suggest. Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two or more straight wins while Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after two or more losses against the spread. 10* (114) Buffalo Bills |
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12-10-16 | Colorado v. BYU -4.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
BYU opened the season 4-0 before hitting a speedbump toward the end of November. The Cougars lost against a very strong Valparaiso team in Las Vegas and then followed that up with a head scratcher. BYU had a bad home loss against Utah Valley where the Wolverines nailed 18 three-pointers so some bad luck can be put into that defeat. The Cougars are coming off a much needed win over Weber St. on Wednesday to gain some momentum heading into this game. They lost by nine points in Colorado last season so they will be out for some payback tonight before taking a week off. Colorado is coming off an upset win over Xavier on Wednesday and now hits the road for just the second time this season. The Buffaloes defeated Portland in their first road game but that is quality win and they now face a huge test. They own one of the best home court advantages in the nation but they have been a very average road team and going back, they are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games as underdogs between 3.5 and 6 points. Meanwhile, BYU is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games coming off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. 10* (584) BYU Cougars |
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12-10-16 | Nuggets v. Magic +3 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Both Denver and Orlando enter this game riding two-game losing streak but at this price and matchup, the Magic are in a solid spot here. After three straight ins, Orlando has lost its last two games by 30 and 21 points which is a big reason the line has risen to where it is. The Magic are just 4-7 at home including a 0-3 record both straight up and against the number as home underdogs. Two of those were against Boston and Utah and the other against Washington which resulted in just a three-point loss. Denver had the night off on Friday following consecutive losses against Brooklyn and Washington on Wednesday and Thursday. The Nuggets were favored in that game against the Nets, just the second time this season they have been favored on the road. The first time was their game before that against Philadelphia meaning their two games as a road chalk came against teams with 11 combined wins. Now they are favored again on the road against a team with 10 wins and while Orlando is far from elite, it is clearly better than both the Nets and Sixers. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 103 or more ppg on the season, after scoring 85 points or less. This situation is 53-20 ATS (72.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (502) Orlando Magic |
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12-10-16 | Arizona State v. San Diego State -8.5 | Top | 74-63 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Obviously, we are big fans of playing on elite teams coming off losses and San Diego St. fits the bill on Saturday. The Aztecs opened the season 4-1 with the lone loss coming at Gonzaga but has since dropped their last two games, a loss at Loyola-Chicago and a loss at Grand Canyon. Those are two horrific losses and after missing the NCAA Tournament last season, they can ill afford another bad loss which would be the case here. San Diego St. was 28-10 including 16-2 in the MWC last season which shows there is little room for error as it was the first time in six years that the regular season champion failed to make the Big Dance. Arizona St. finished 5-13 in the Pac 12 last season and projections are again saying that the Sun Devils will finish near the bottom of the conference once again. They are off to a 5-4 start which does not seem that bad however, there is not a significant win on the slate so far. Additionally, three losses have come by 19, 46 and 34 points and those were on neutral floors. This is the first true road game of the season for Arizona St. and that is not good for a team that has gone 6-19 on the highway the last two years. The Sun Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after a loss by 15 or more points. 10* (568) San Diego St. Aztecs |
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12-10-16 | Connecticut v. Ohio State -9 | Top | 60-64 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Ohio St. is likely not a Big Ten contender this season as some sources say and coming off a home loss to Florida Atlantic in its last game will cement that. However, this is a team that cannot be counted out and this is an ideal situation to back the Buckeyes. They are coming off a 21-14 season where they made it to the NIT but they are one of the most experienced teams in the nation which makes that loss against the Owls even more surprising. They have their top six scorers back from last season with five of those being upperclassmen. There may have been a lookahead to this game from Tuesday as Ohio St. is out to revenge a 20-point loss to the Huskies from last season. Connecticut was ranked No .18 in the Preseason AP Poll but an opening loss to Wagner followed by a loss against Northeastern knocked it out pretty quickly. The only win in the Maui Invitational came against Chaminade and while the Huskies are coming off a win over Syracuse, it was ugly as they shot just 31 percent from the floor and 56.5 percent from the stripe. The Huskies are now entering a bad spot with finals week coming up as well. Ohio St. is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games following a loss. 10* (564) Ohio St. Buckeyes |
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12-10-16 | Utah v. Xavier -12 | Top | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
We played on this Xavier team Wednesday as it was coming off a blowout loss in Baylor but the Musketeers failed to bounce back as they lost at Colorado by a bucket. Now, coming off two straight losses and heading back home, this is a statement game for them as they cannot afford a loss to anon-quality opponent and a blowout win is needed. Utah may not be considered non-quality to some but the Utes can be placed in that category this season. The Utes lost a ton of talent and have had to basically rebuild their roster which puts them in a tough spot here. They are off to a 6-1 start but their biggest win was against either UC-Riverside or Montana St. and if that is a question, it shows how soft of a slate it has been. Out of 350 Division I teams, Utah has played a schedule ranked No. 344 and has yet to leave its own gym on top of it. Do not let the big number be a scare here as this one has the potential to get out of control quickly. Xavier is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 home games against teams outrebounding opponents by seven or more rpg and we already know that that Utah number is skewed. 10* (560) Xavier Musketeers |
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12-10-16 | Army +6 v. Navy | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
We won with Army in this game last season and despite straight up losses in the last five, the Cadets have covered four of those and we have been on them in each of those. Now Army enters the 2016 rivalry with one of its best teams in recent memory as it looks to break its 14-game losing streak in this series. The Black Knights opened the season 3-0 but then lost three of their next four games. Two of those losses could have been wins and in all three defeats, they outgained their opponents. Army suffered a pair of blowout losses to open November but was able to bounce back with a blowout win over Morgan St. and while the opponent was far from a good team, it was a needed boost of confidence before heading into this one. Additionally, they have had 20 days to prepare for Navy. The Midshipmen are coming off a disappointing loss against Temple in the AAC Championship which cost them a spot in the Cotton Bowl. Instead they have been relegated to the Armed Forces Bowl so they could come into this one a little down. For the first time since 1941, Navy has only one week to prepare for Army which is a pretty big disadvantage. Makings matters worse, the Midshipmen will be without two of their top three rushers including quarterback Will Worth who leads the team with 1,196 yards and 25 touchdowns. We play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more ypc, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (103) Army Black Knights |
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12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Dallas has been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA but most of that can be attributed to injuries that have hampered the Mavericks from the start. They are 4-17 which is the worst record in the NBA and while injuries have been the main factor, playing the toughest schedule in the league has not helped much either. 15 of their 21 games have come against the top 16 in the NBA including nine against the top 10 where they are 0-9. Dallas has been better at home and it can take advantage of a good matchup tonight. Indiana has been somewhat of a disappointment as well as it has been unable to consistently put a run together. The Pacers are coming off a win at Phoenix on Wednesday to move to 2-2 on this roadtrip and they head home tomorrow to face Portland in a revenge game from a loss 10 days ago. Indiana has won consecutive games only once this season as it has gone 2-8 both straight up and ATS following a victory. Dallas is coming off its worst home loss of the season and we will see plenty of focus and effort tonight in front of the home fans. 10* (714) Dallas Mavericks |
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12-08-16 | Spurs v. Bulls +3.5 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
Opposing streaks square off tonight as the Spurs bring in a four-game winning streak into Chicago to take on the Bulls which have dropped their last three games. The losing skid for the Bulls started right after their home win over the Cavaliers, the only other time this season they have been a home underdog. This is the second three-game losing streak of the season and the first one was snapped with a 42-point home win over Orlando. The Spurs cannot be compared to the Magic obviously but they face a tough test tonight against a team desperate for a victory. San Antonio will be trying to tie the record set last season by Golden St. for consecutive road wins to open a season but it has not been the most taxing schedule thus far. While many feel this is a good matchup for the Spurs, it is the exact opposite. The Bulls are second in rebound differential at +5.4 and first in the league in offensive rebounds per game with 13.7 rpg. The Spurs have been fairly mediocre at crashing the boards and are No 17 in differential which could be a problem tonight giving the Bulls second chance opportunities. The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Spurs are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (512) Chicago Bulls |
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12-08-16 | Raiders +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -100 | 52 h 53 m | Show |
Kansas City is finding ways to win but with them being dominated so much lately, it will catch up. The Chiefs are 7-1 over their last eight games but they have been outgained in six of those and most have not even been close. They have been outyarded in each of the last five games and by an average of 118.4 ypg. They were fortunate to come away with wins in each of the last two games with last week being the real fortunate one as they scored two touchdowns on defense and special teams while also returning a conversion attempt for two points. Oakland fell behind Buffalo 24-9 before scoring the final 29 points to pull out the two-touchdown win. That was the sixth straight win for the Raiders and in those, they were outgained only once. In their last 10 games, they have lost only once and that was against Kansas City at home and while road revenge is not a big factor, there will be some added motivation. Additionally, a win here could go a long way in locking up the AFC West as they would have a two-game lead with three to play. It is hard to ignore the fact Oakland is 5-0 on the road and playing with some of the best confidence in the league. While Kansas City is 4-1 at home, it has covered just once and that was against the lowly Jets. 10* (101) Oakland Raiders |
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12-08-16 | Vanderbilt v. Middle Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 48-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee St. made a name for itself last season when it upset Michigan St. in the NCAA Tournament and it will make another run this season. The Blue Raiders are riding a six-game winning streak and are led by Arkansas transfer JaCorey Williams who leads the team with 19.7 ppg, one of three players averaging at least 14 ppg. At 8-1, the Blue Raiders have risen to sixth in the NCAA RPI ratings and have been one of the best home teams in the country in recent years, holding a 70-12 record in the Murphy Center since 2011-12. Vanderbilt bounced back from a loss against Minnesota with a 27-point win over High Point to improve to 5-4 on the season. It has definitely been an uneven start for the Commodores under first year head coach Bryce Drew which were picked to finish middle of the pack in the SEC. The team that was picked ahead of Vanderbilt, Mississippi, fell to Middle Tennessee St. last month on its home floor so a middle of the road SEC team is no issue for the Blue Raiders. The Commodores are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog while the Blue Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of less than seven points. 10* (518) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders |
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12-07-16 | Warriors v. Clippers +5 | Top | 115-98 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
After a 14-2 start, the Clippers hit a bit of a rough patch as they have dropped four of their last six games. To their credit, three of those losses came on the road during a six-game roadtrip but they did win at Cleveland over that stretch. They are coming off their worst home loss, a nine-point setback against Indiana the night before the Pacers were throttled by the Warriors by 36 points. After getting swept by Golden St. last season, Los Angeles will be out to prove it can contend. The Warriors are coming off a five-game homestand where they went 4-1, the four wins coming against teams with a losing record and the loss coming against Houston. Overall, Golden St. has played the No. 29 schedule in the NBA as it has faced just seven teams with a winning record. According to the Sagarin power rankings, the Clippers are No. 2 behind the Warriors and based on the numbers, this game should be a pickem so we are getting significant value. The Warriors are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Clippers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (720) Los Angeles Clippers |
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12-07-16 | Pepperdine v. Long Beach State -7.5 | Top | 66-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Long Beach St. opened the season with a win over CS-Los Angeles and has now gone on to lose nine straight games. While that may seem to be an issue in backing the 49ers, the fact of the matter is that all of those games were away from The Pyramid and includes games against Wichita St., North Carolina, Louisville, UCLA and Kansas. They have been off for three days which is significant after traveling over 15,000 miles over the last three weeks. Pepperdine has been struggling as well as it has dropped three straight games following a 4-1 start to the season. The Wave have defeated no one of significance however so its 4-4 record is worse than it looks. This is the first true road game of the season for Pepperdine as well and it will take to the road for the first time without Stacy Davis and Jett Raines, who combined for 2,786 career points. Long Beach St. has underachieved of late but is picked to win the Big West Conference and with a game at Texas on deck, it needs this one in a big way and a blowout will only help matters. 10* (760) Long Beach St. 49ers |
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12-07-16 | Xavier -2.5 v. Colorado | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Playing on elite teams coming off big losses are always a great angle and it fits here for Xavier. The Mustangs moved to as high as No. 7 in the AP Poll but then traveled to Baylor and were annihilated by 15 points despite leading by three at the half. They shot a mere 23 percent in the second half and were on the wrong end of a 19-2 run. Xavier is expected to give Villanova a run once again with four of its top six scorers back and this is a hungry team after an earlier than expected ending to last season in the NCAA Tournament. A big road win will help and Colorado can fit the bill. The Buffaloes are expected to be solid once again but the start this season has been average despite what looks like a solid 6-2 record. They have not beaten anyone, and that includes Texas, while they lost at home against Colorado St. which is a middle of the road team in the MWC. Playing in the Coors Events Center is never easy but Xavier has what it takes to win away from home (13 last season) and we are getting a good line on top of it. 10* (747) Xavier Musketeers |
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12-07-16 | Blazers v. Bucks -2 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
We played on Milwaukee two nights ago and it nearly handed San Antonio its first road loss of the season but did manage the cover. That loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Bucks and as mentioned Monday, they have played the elite teams tough at home. They 6-5 at home and the last three losses have come against San Antonio, Toronto and Golden St. by a combined 10 points. Now they take a step down in competition with Portland even though the Blazers are a solid team. They are riding a three-game winning streak following a win in Chicago on Monday but that was their first win against a team with a winning record in close to a month which was a win over Memphis on November 6. Overall, Portland has just three wins over current winning teams and the record on the season against teams above .500 is 3-8. The favorite is 17-4 in Portland games this season and with a short price here, an outright favorite win likely means a cover as well. The Blazers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win while the Bucks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on one day of rest. 10* (714) Milwaukee Bucks |
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12-07-16 | TCU v. SMU -3.5 | Top | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
SMU started the season 3-0 including an impressive win over Pittsburgh prior to getting hammered against Michigan the next day at MSG. The Mustangs have been up and down since then with a pair of losses against USC and Boise St., two solid teams, but they bring in a two-game winning streak into tonight. SMU missed the NCAA Tournament last season because of violations and then head coach Larry Brown resigned but this team is in great shape to make another run as Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye has been everything as advertised. We are catching a small line here because TCU is off to an 8-0 start behind first year head coach Jamie Dixon. A pair of wins over Washington and a win over UNLV look good on paper and in name but those programs are in down years. The win at UNLV was the lone true road game of the season and TCU won that game thanks to being given 18 more free throw attempts as it was outshot from the floor as well as from long range. 10* (740) SMU Mustangs |
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12-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat -1 | Top | 114-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
New York has won three straight games to move to two games over .500 for the first time this season. The Knicks have been on a sold roll since a blowout loss in Toronto as they are 8-3 over their last 11 games. The schedule has been in their favor however as they have played only three road games over this stretch, going 1-2 with the lone victory coming by just a bucket at Minnesota. This is not an easy spot for New York as it returns home tomorrow for a revenge game against Cleveland which it lost to by 29 points in the season opener. This is a pretty big game for Miami which is coming off a 2-1 roadtrip and then has another three-game roadtrip on deck. The Heat have been better on the road than at home as they are just 2-7 at American Airlines Arena including two straight losses. Their schedule has been pretty tough however as seven of the nine home games have come against projected playoff teams and overall, they have played the fifth toughest schedule in the league. New York is 2-6 on the road and the Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (506) Miami Heat |
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12-06-16 | St Bonaventure v. Hofstra +5 | Top | 81-75 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
St. Bonaventure and Hofstra both come in riding four-game winning streaks and we are getting significant value with the home team. The Bonnies are coming off a sensational 22-9 season but were snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee despite sharing the A-10 regular season championship and the disappointment showed in an opening round loss in the NIT. They only lost two starters but they were two big ones in Marcus Posley and Dion Wright which averaged a combined 36.3 ppg. Now St. Bonaventure hits the road for the first time this season and is listed as a surprising favorite. Hofstra has won three games away from home during this current winning streak and tonight marks only the second home game of the season. The Pride have a great inside-outside duo in center Rokas Gustys who is averaging 14.3 rpg, which is tops in the country, and freshman guard Eli Pemberton who leads the team in scoring at 15.3 ppg. Gustys is expected to contend for CAA Player of the Year while Pemberton will likely be top newcomer in the conference. Hofstra has a legitimate shot at this one outright but we will gladly grab the points. 10* (514) Hofstra Pride |
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12-05-16 | Colts -2 v. Jets | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
The Colts hit the road following their Thanksgiving loss at home against Pittsburgh where they were missing Andrew Luck but he is now back after passing concussion protocol. Indianapolis is 2-3 on the road but has played better than that record shows. Two losses came by three points, one in overtime, while the third was in Denver by 14 points but it was down by just three points under the two-minute warning before allowing a defensive touchdown, the second of the game. With Houston losing yesterday, the Colts can get into a tie for first place in the AFC South with a victory. The Jets have lost three straight games and all of those were by five points or less including a tough loss to the Patriots last week. The playoffs are no longer a possibility and New York will be challenged to get up for this game after losing to their rivals last week knowing there is not much to play for at this point. The secondary has struggled all season and the pass rush has had trouble on the edges so Luck should be able to consistently move the ball down field. The Colts defense has been an issue all season but New York is ranked No. 28 in points scored. The Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record while the Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (377) Indianapolis Colts |
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12-05-16 | Blazers v. Bulls -5 | Top | 112-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
The Bulls had a weekend that is so typical in this league. On Friday, Chicago defeated Cleveland as a home underdog and a big win like that often brings a letdown and that was certainly the case. The Bulls went to Dallas the next night and lost to the then 3-15 Mavericks by 25 points. They head back home to avoid their first losing streak since early November when they dropped three straight games. Since then, Chicago is 5-0 in its last five games following a loss while covering all five of those games as well. Additionally, the Bulls have covered five of their seven home games this season. Portland is coming off a 3-1 homestand with the lone loss coming against a surging Houston team. The Blazers have struggled on the road, losing five of their last six games on the highway while two of four road wins have come against Brooklyn and Dallas which are a combined 8-29. Portland is 1-7 ATS as an underdog this season with only one of those losses coming by fewer than eight points. Going back, the Blazers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win. 10* (712) Chicago Bulls |
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12-05-16 | Spurs v. Bucks +6.5 | Top | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Milwaukee has put a solid run together as it has won four straight games to improve to 10-8 on the season and this has been done without the services of Khris Middleton who is out with a torn hamstring. While the last two wins have come against the lowly Nets, the victory prior to that was against Cleveland and they have done an excellent job when facing elite competition. The Bucks are a respectable 6-4 at home and the last two losses have come against Toronto and Golden St. by a combined nine points. Tonight will be a challenge in facing the Spurs who are still undefeated on the road at 11-0. The road slate has been relatively easy for the most part with the win over Golden St. being the best but that was the season opener. Overall, San Antonio is on an 11-1 run but it is just 5-7 ATS in those games as its lines have become inflated because of the success. That is the case here where the Spurs are favored by just two points less than they were favored by at 3-15 Dallas. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (714) Milwaukee Bucks |
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12-05-16 | Cavs v. Raptors | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The race in the Eastern Conference is getting tighter with Toronto on a run of six straight wins while the Cavaliers have dropped their last three games. The Raptors have won five of the six games by at least 13 points including the last four and the last two coming by 33 and 44 points. While they will be out to prove that they can hang with the Cavaliers, it has not happened as of yet. Toronto has had a pair of chances to avenge its series loss in the Eastern Conference Finals but has failed both times. This is the first three-game losing streak for Cleveland since the end of the 2014-15 season when it lost the last three games of the NBA Finals against Golden St. with a totally banged up team missing Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. For Cleveland, it comes down to focus and execution. Cut down on the turnovers, and things will fall into place. This is the type of game that Cleveland steps it up when facing adversity and while the Raptors winning streak is nice, they have been facing a string of teams that are either struggling or without key players, or both. While Cleveland falls into the former, the struggles are easily fixable. 10* (705) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Chargers have been the hard luck team of the NFL this season. They are 5-6 as they have been depleted by injuries but still, all six of those losses have come within just one possession. San Diego is outgaining opponents by over 10 ypg which is not a huge gap and they are one of only four teams in the NFL with a losing record but possess a positive point differential. The playoff scenario may look bleak but the Chargers are not out of it. Tampa is coming off an upset win over Seattle which was its third straight win, all of which it was in the underdog role. The Buccaneers are now 6-5 and just a game off the lead in the NFC South. They have won three straight road games as well but on the season, they are getting outgained on average and unlike San Diego, they are in the negative in scoring differential. Here, we play against teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 70-35 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Chargers are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (370) San Diego Chargers |
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12-04-16 | Lions +6.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Game of the Week. New Orleans snapped a two-game skid with a blowout win over Los Angeles last Sunday. While we were on the wrong side of that call, it sets up a great opportunity to go against the Saints this week. They are now 5-6 on the season and trail the Falcons by two games in the NFC South. They are again favored by a bigger than expected number. Detroit took care of Minnesota on Thanksgiving by a field goal for its third straight victory and sixth win over its last seven games. The Lions have the lead in the NFL North by a game and a half over Minnesota and two games over Green Bay so a win here would be huge for momentum with a home game against Chicago on deck. Detroit win here last December as a 2.5-point underdog and it came into that game 4-9 so the fact it is getting more points now is a bit of an overreaction for the Saints. Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when the total is 49.5 or higher and it falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are coming off two consecutive home wins. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (359) Detroit Lions |
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12-04-16 | Chiefs v. Falcons -5.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Falcons burned us last week as they rolled past Arizona and are in a great spot this week to make it two straight wins. Atlanta improved to 3-2 at home with the lone losses coming against Tampa Bay in the season opener and San Diego in overtime. The Falcons will not be looking past Kansas City for sure with games against Los Angeles and San Francisco up next. Kansas City was fortunate to win last week in Denver as a field goal that hit the upright and went in with two second left was the difference. The Chiefs were outgained by 191 yards and they have been outgained in four straight games. The fact they are coming off that overtime game is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been nine teams coming off an overtime game that went the full distance and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 16.7 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off an upset win as an underdog, with a winning record playing another winning team in the second half of the season. This situation is 109-64 ATS (63 percent) since 1983. 10* (354) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-04-16 | Broncos v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Jacksonville has dropped six straight games but unlike the past, most of the games have at least been competitive. The Jaguars have lost the last four by just one possession and three of those came on the road. They have been outgained only twice during this losing streak one of those was by just three yards which came last week in Buffalo. Three of their four home losses have been by a combined nine points. Denver lost a brutal game at home against Kansas City in overtime on a last second field goal that almost did not even go in. Now the Broncos hit the road in a very tough spot. The fact they are coming off that overtime game is bad news as they had to go an extra 15 minutes and that is a big negative. As a matter of fact, since 1989 there have been nine teams coming off an overtime game that went the full distance and playing their next game on the road and all of those teams lost. The defeats were by an average of 16.7 ppg and all resulted in easy covers as well. Jacksonville falls into another situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. This situation is 54-20 ATS (73 percent) since 1983. 10* (352) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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12-03-16 | Auburn v. UAB -4 | Top | 74-70 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Auburn is a middle of the pack team in the SEC that is off to a solid 5-1 start because the schedule has been pretty light. The only true test came against Purdue in the Cancun Challenge which resulted in a 25-point loss and now the Tigers travel to UAB for their first true road game of the season. They have been a horrible road team over the last few years as they have not won more than two road games since 2008-2009 and have gone 12-64 on the highway since then. UAB is off to an average 4-3 start but has played a difficult schedule thus far with tough games against Kansas, St. Marys and George Washington. The Blazers won their last game and while it was only against Alabama A&M, the 30-point win was needed for confidence sake. UAB will be out for revenge here as it lost in Auburn last season by a point, losing in the final second by an Auburn three-pointer. Look for the Blazers to pull away for the comfortable win. 10* (800) UAB Blazers |
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12-03-16 | San Diego State -6.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 8 m | Show |
After a perfect 6-0 start in the Mountain West Conference, San Diego St. went to Laramie to face the Cowboys and came away with a one-point loss. The hangover from that carried over into last week as the Aztecs got thumped at home against Colorado St. in what was a meaningless game as the MWC West Division was already locked up. What it did do however was force San Diego St. to once again travel to Laramie, this time with much more at stake. The win over the Aztecs also forced a letdown for Wyoming which lost at New Mexico last week by 21 points while getting outgained by 241 total yards. Wyoming allowed the Lobos to rush for 568 yards, the most by an FBS team this season and the most ever against a Wyoming defense. That is not good news for the Cowboys even though they held the Aztecs in check the first meeting. With the weather not expected to be good, the play of the defenses will be even more important and the Aztecs have a defense that is better by 157 total yards. Here, we play on road favorites revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite, with a winning record on the season. This situation is 50-17 ATS (74.6 percent) over the last five seasons. San Diego St. is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games after a loss by 28 or more points while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 42 points or more last game. 10* (329) San Diego St. Aztecs |
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12-03-16 | Hawks +9 v. Raptors | Top | 84-128 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the questionable status of Paul Millsap who has missed two straight games with a hip injury. The Struggling Hawks look to snap a five-game skid tonight in what is a classic contrarian play here. Atlanta has dropped eight of its last nine games to fall to 10-10 on the season after getting pounded at home against Detroit by 36 points. The only positive that came out of that game was that the starters played very few minutes which will benefit them in the second of this back-to-back. Toronto meanwhile has been rolling as it has won five straight games with a win over Houston being the only noteworthy victory. With the struggles of Atlanta, the Raptors may look past this game as they have a revenge game on deck against the Cavaliers. Atlanta has covered five of six games this season against winning teams and is catching a solid number here based on the direction of where these teams have gone recently. Additionally, the Hawks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games playing with no rest. 10* (705) Atlanta Hawks |
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12-03-16 | Arkansas State -22.5 v. Texas State | Top | 36-14 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 55 m | Show |
This is a big number to be laying on the road but Arkansas St. should have no problem naming the score in this one. After six straight victories, the Red Wolves lost at Lafayette last week for their first conference loss and the ability to control their destiny for the Sun Belt Conference title. Now they must win here to gain a share of the title so the motivation is still in place. Arkansas St. actually outgained the Cajuns last week by 229 yards but gave up a defensive score, had to settle for two field goals, missed a field goal and were stopped on downs three times, twice inside the seven-yard line. Texas St. is 2-9 with one of those wins coming against Incarnate Word. The Bobcats have been outgained by every FBS foe by at least 116 yards including three times by at least 315 yards. They have dropped seven straight games and at this point, they are just playing out the string. Arkansas St. has a strong situation in its favor as we play on teams that are +/- 40 ypg rushing going up against teams getting outrushed by 80 or more ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Red Wolves are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against teams allowing 31 or more ypg. 10* (319) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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12-03-16 | New Mexico State v. South Alabama -12 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 25 m | Show |
There are two teams playing Saturday that need to win their final game to become bowl eligible and one of those is South Alabama. The Jaguars had an opportunity to clinch last week but lost at Idaho which has had a very solid season in its own right. Now they head back home where they are 4-2 compared to just 1-4 on the road and are being asked to lay a pretty inexpensive number with as much motivation as they are going to have. South Alabama has outgained its last four opponents. New Mexico St. will be home for the holidays for the 56th consecutive year as the Aggies come into their final game with a 3-8 record. One win came against 2-9 Texas St., another came by just one point and the final one in overtime. They are 0-6 on the road and they have won only nine road games over the last 11 years. While the New Mexico St. offense is third in the conference, it was held in check last week because quarterback Tyler Rogers, who leads the SBC in total offense, was out and he is doubtful again this week. New Mexico St. is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games following one or more consecutive losses. Even though South Alabama owns two wins over FCS teams, but the NCAA approved a waiver due to the cancellation of its game with LSU. 10* (312) South Alabama Jaguars |
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12-03-16 | Temple v. Navy -3 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 24 m | Show |
Temple is rolling as it has won six straight games to win the AAC East over South Florida thanks to 16-point win over the Bulls which was part of this current winning streak. The Owls are on an even more impressive ATS run as they have covered 11 straight games after losing to Army in their season opener. While taking nothing away from winning the East, but Temple was fortunate to miss Navy, Houston and Tulsa from the West so they did benefit from an easier schedule than most. Navy is rolling along as well as it has won four straight and six of its last seven games. It gets the chance to host the championship game based on being ranked 25th in the College Football Playoff poll, which is the second tiebreaker following head-to-head. The Midshipmen have won 15 consecutive games at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, which is the longest active home field winning streak in FBS football. Here, we play against road teams after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game going up against an opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in three consecutive games. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Navy is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards in two straight games while going 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. 10* (326) Navy Midshipmen |
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12-02-16 | Rockets v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 128-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Houston is coming off a monumental win last night in Golden St. as it outlasted the Warriors in double overtime. The Rockets snapped the Warriors 12-game winning streak while also snapping their six-game losing streak to Golden St. Now comes the tough task of playing tonight following that victory and making it even tougher is the fact three players logged over 42 minutes of playing time. Houston has won both games this season playing with no rest but the difference now is that both of those wins came after losses the previous night. Denver is off to a tough 7-11 start including losses in three of its last four games. The Nuggets have struggled at home with a 4-6 record but one of those losses came against Golden St. while three others came in overtime. The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS this season following a loss and catch Houston at the perfect time. Denver is slowly getting healthier and it gets Will Barton back in the lineup tonight. Going back, the Rockets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. 10* (518) Denver Nuggets |
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12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington -7.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 53 h 36 m | Show |
Washington has played only a few average to below average games this season, one resulting in a loss and two resulting in wins by just a touchdown each. Everything else has been a blowout and the Huskies have outgained their opponents by an average of close to 160 ypg. The blowout over Washington St. in the Apple Cup last weekend was a statement win as many thought the Cougars had a chance for the upset. Colorado has put together a great season with low expectations coming in. The Buffaloes are 10-2 but it really did not come from out of nowhere as they returned 18 starters from a team that lost five of nine games by just one possession. How will they react here though is the question? Colorado was blown out in Michigan and lost to USC before the Trojans got particularly hot. Both teams possess stout defenses but Washington has the edge on offense as it is third in the nation in points scored, averaging 10 ppg more than the Buffaloes. Washington falls into a great situation where we play on teams in the second half of the season that average 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 16 and 21 ppg, after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. This situation is 58-22 ATS (72.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (306) Washington Huskies |
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12-02-16 | Magic v. 76ers -2 | Top | 105-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Philadelphia has dropped four straight games after a decent run where it went 4-3 over a seven-game stretch following a 0-7 start to the season. Now the Sixers come in as favorites for the first time this season and while may be a red flag to some, this is a great opportunity to back them. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season at home against teams with a losing record and going back, they are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. Orlando is coming off a loss last night in Memphis and it was not a typical loss. The Magic blew a 14-point lead midway through the fourth quarter, eventually giving up the lead with 12 seconds left. They were unable to get off a shot in their last possession and that loss will be difficult to recover from one night later. This is the third road game in four nights for Orlando who came in here on November 1 and won by a bucket as a five-point favorite so the line change to now is telling. Orlando is 3-10 ATS this season against teams with a losing record. 10* (502) Philadelphia 76ers |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings +3 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 110 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
The Dallas spread run finally came to an end as it failed to cover against Washington on Thanksgiving. Still, the Cowboys have won ten straight games outright but they are in a tough spot this week playing a desperate team with a fantastic defense in need of a win. Dallas has put up at least 24 points during the winning streak but now it faces the best defense it has seen all season in a hostile environment. The Vikings lost for the fifth time in six games on Thursday as the offense could do little once again. Stefon Diggs was a late scratch but he will be back this week while Kyle Rudolph will be good to go after leaving the Detroit game with a shoulder injury. The public is and will be all over the Cowboys again this week and that is a spot we will fade Thursday night. The Vikings have two contrarian situations in their favor. First, we play against road favorites allowing 90 or less rushing ypg, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play on underdogs or pickems after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa in 2 straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 7 or more passing ypa in 2 straight games. This situation is 53-24 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Minnesota is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against teams averaging 350 or more ypg. 10* (302) Minnesota Vikings |
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12-01-16 | Bucks -4.5 v. Nets | Top | 111-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Both Milwaukee and Brooklyn are coming off impressive victories on Tuesday as the Bucks won at home by 17 points over the Cavaliers while the Nets won in overtime at home against the Clippers. We now need to figure out which team benefits from that big win and which one suffers a letdown. Considering Brooklyn has just won just 26 games combined the last two seasons, it will be the one that suffers the letdown. The Nets have not won back-to-back games this season as they are 0-4 following a victory and going back to last season, they are 4-21 following a win. The Bucks improved to .500 with the win over Cleveland and that is pretty solid considering they have been without Khris Middleton all season. That victory over the Cavaliers was just their second against a top 16 team and against teams below No. 16, the Bucks are 6-3 on the season. They fall into a great situation where we play on road favorites coming off a win over a division rival as an underdog going up against an opponent off a win as an underdog. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1996. Additionally, the Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while the Bucks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (703) Milwaukee Bucks |
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12-01-16 | Fairfield v. Rider -3 | Top | 76-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Rider is one of nine teams in the country that has yet to play a home game so tonight marks the first time the Broncs take the floor at Alumni Gymnasium. They are off to a 3-2 start which is pretty solid considering they started the season with five road games. Rider has five players averaging 9.8 ppg or more and it is the frontcourt that has been the strength, led by seniors Kahlil Thomas, Xavier Lundy and Norville Carey. They have won the battle of the boards in all five games this season. The Broncs have failed to cover both lined games this season which is giving them value in the short price at home. Fairfield is 4-1 including a 2-1 record on the road. The signature win was a victory at Wagner, which beat Connecticut earlier in the season but Rider also defeated Wagner on the road this past Saturday. This is the conference opener for both teams and with Rider coming off their first 20-loss season which included a 0-5 start in the MAAC, the Broncs will be highly motivated for a better start and the home opener takes care of that. 10* (726) Rider Broncs |
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11-30-16 | Northern Illinois v. Indiana State -4.5 | Top | 52-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is the second meeting this season between Northern Illinois and Indiana St. and the latter will be out for some payback. Two free throws from Laytwan Porter with 4.3 seconds remaining helped lift the Huskies to an 80-78 overtime victory over Indiana St. in the season opener for both sides. Northern Illinois had a great season a year ago based on what was expected but was just 3-10 on the road and they are already 0-1 on the highway this season. Indiana St. comes into tonight with a 2-4 overall record, with its four setbacks coming by a total of 10 points. This past weekend at the Advocare Invitational in Orlando, Fla., the Sycamores fell to Iowa St. by two, Stanford by three and Quinnipiac by three. This is just their second home game and going back, the Sycamores have won 53 of their last 71 home games making this a very potent home court advantage. Additionally, Indiana St. is 34-14 ATS in its last 58 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 10* (548) Indiana St. Sycamores |
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11-30-16 | Middle Tennessee +6.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 77-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The rebuilding season in Mississippi continues and while its 5-1 record looks good, it does not have much to it. Four of the wins came against Tennessee-Martin, UMass, Oral Roberts and Montana by a combined 17 points, only one by more than seven points and that went to overtime. The Rebels are doing well on offense after having to replace reigning SEC leading scorer Stefan Moody but are struggling on defense. Middle Tennessee St. made a name for itself last season when it upset Michigan St. in the NCAA Tournament and it will make another run this season. The Blue Raiders are riding a four-game winning streak and are led by Arkansas transfer JaCorey Williams who leads the team with 21.6 ppg. While this is the first true road game for the Blue Raiders, they are getting a very healthy number here in a game they feasibly can win outright. The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite while Middle Tennessee St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against teams averaging 84 or more ppg. 10* (553) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders |
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11-30-16 | Grizzlies +12 v. Raptors | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Memphis is a pretty banged up team right now as it added Mike Conley to the injury list as he will be out for at least six weeks with a back injury. The line is taking that into consideration but it might be taking it just a little too far at this point. This is still a very solid team with a lot of depth and while the Grizzlies are off a home loss against Charlotte, they are 7-2 over their last nine games and are only a half-game worse than Toronto. The Raptors have won three straight games including a 27-point win over Philadelphia on Monday to open their six-game homestand. They are just 5-3 at home and while they have dominated the Eastern Conference with a 7-2 record, they are just 4-4 against the Western Conference including a pair of losses against Sacramento and two of those wins were over Denver by a combined five points. Here, we play against home favorites of 10 or more points coming off a win by 20 points or more over a divisional opponent going up against an opponent off a home loss. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (503) Memphis Grizzlies |
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11-30-16 | Pistons v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Detroit is coming off a win last night in Charlotte which was just its second road win in 10 games this season. It has been an up and down season for the Pistons which are still a game under .500 and the road has been the issue where they are getting outscored by close to 10 ppg and some of those losses are against average to bad teams. Boston won in Miami two nights ago as a favorite and the Celtics have flourished in this role all season as they are 9-2 as a favorite while covering eight of those games. The home floor has been average for Boston as it is 4-3 on the season including losses in its last two games here but those were against Golden St. and San Antonio. The Celtics have won eight of 11 games against the Eastern Conference and welcome back Al Horford which is a big return to try and neutralize Andre Drummond. Look for the Celtics to push the pace on their home floor after a low scoring game in the first meeting this season. The Pistons are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games revenging a loss while the Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (506) Boston Celtics |
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11-30-16 | Ohio v. Marshall -1.5 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Ohio is off to a 4-0 start including a win in its only game on the road. The Bobcats are picked to contend in the MAC once again following an 11-7 conference record last season, good for second in the MAC East. The one road win came at Georgia Tech which may look good on paper but the Yellow Jackets are in a down year. Marshall is 4-1 on the season and will look to rebound from a 41-point shellacking at Ohio St. five days ago. The Thundering Herd were a big surprise last season as they finished second in C-USA with a 13-5 record and are a potent bunch once again. They were the third highest scoring team in the nation and while they lost James Kelly, four starters are back including point guard Jon Elmore who leads the team in scoring at 20.2 ppg and the point guard position is huge in the Dan D'Antoni fast paced offense. Marshall will look to snap a four-game losing streak in this heated rivalry with this being meeting No. 102. 10* (538) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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11-29-16 | Cavs v. Bucks +7 | Top | 101-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Cleveland has the best record in the Eastern Conference by three games over Toronto as it is now 13-2 following a win over Philadelphia on Sunday. That was just the Cavaliers fifth road game compared to nine home games and coupled with playing over half of their games against teams ranked outside the top 16, they have played the easiest schedule in the NBA. While Cleveland is outscoring opponents by 13 ppg at home, it is just +1.8 ppg in scoring differential on the road. Milwaukee won its last game against Orlando but is still on a disappointing 3-6 run over its last nine games. The Bucks are a respectable 5-4 at home and the last two losses have come against Toronto and Golden St. by a combined nine points. They fall into a very positive situation as we play against favorites in a game involving two teams allowing 102 or more ppg, after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games. This situation is 52-23 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Cleveland is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 road games after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games and 1-8 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. 10* (706) Milwaukee Bucks |
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11-29-16 | Lakers v. Pelicans -5 | Top | 88-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Arguably the most surprising team in the NBA is the Lakers which are off to a 9-9 start after going 3-15 in their first 18 games last season and it was not until January 12 that they recorded their ninth win which ironically came against New Orleans. After suffering a pair of blowout losses against Golden St. in a home-and-home set, Los Angeles rebounded with a 15-point win against Atlanta on Sunday. The Lakers are 3-5 on the road including losses in two straight. New Orleans has been playing much better after a 0-8 start as it is 6-4 over its last 10 ten. The Pelican have dropped two in a row however but those were on the road and they bring in a four-game home winning streak. The last home loss came on November 12 which resulted in a 27-point loss against the Lakers so there is a huge revenge factor in play tonight. We have a great contrarian situation in play as we play on teams coming off an upset loss as a favorite going up against an opponent coming off an upset win as a home underdog. This situation is 66-37 ATS (64.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (708) New Orleans Pelicans |
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11-29-16 | Georgia Tech v. Penn State -7.5 | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
The ACC/Big Ten Challenge started last night and continues through Wednesday. Georgia Tech is off to a 4-1 start with the four wins coming against no one impressive. The Yellow Jackets lone loss came against Ohio at home and tonight is the first road game of the season for them. Georgia Tech returns seven lettermen from the 21-15 team, but it lost its top four scorers and lost upwards of 85 percent of its production from a lot of the major statistical categories. Expectations are very low and Georgia Tech has been picked to finish last, or near last, in the ACC. Penn St. is a young team as well with no seniors but it still brings back three starters and brought in one of the best recruiting classes in program history. Two of the top three scorers for the Nittany Lions are freshmen and overall they have four players averaging double-digits. Overall, they are 4-3 and after a loss in their season opener, the other two losses have come against No. 4 Duke and No. 21 Cincinnati. It is rare to see Penn St. a decent-sized favorite but it has had success in the past going 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games as a favorite between 6.5 and 9 points. 10* (724) Penn St. Nittany Lions |
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11-28-16 | Packers +4 v. Eagles | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Green Bay is mired in a four-game losing streak and it sits two and a half games behind Detroit in the NFC North. All games are big but this is a really big one for the Packers as a fifth straight loss would essentially put them in a spot they could not recover from. The schedule has been part of the problem as while they had a four-game homestand in parts of September and October, they are now playing their fourth road game in a five-game stretch and third in a row. Philadelphia is 5-5 following a loss in Seattle last Sunday making this a big game for the Eagles as well. The edge would seem to go to Philadelphia considering that the home team is 9-1 in its games this season but while this number may not seem big, it is matched for the largest line the Eagles have put down this season, tying it with the -4 against the Browns Week One. Being over the key number of 3 is huge in this case. Green Bay falls into two solid situations. First, we play against home favorites off a road loss going up against an opponent off a road loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 93-48 ATS (66 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 coming off a road loss. This situation is 106-60 ATS (63.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (275) Green Bay Packers |
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11-28-16 | Thunder v. Knicks -1 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
It has been a busy stretch for Oklahoma City as this is its fifth game in seven days and it has not been an easy time. There has been travel involved every day based on three of the past four games taking place on the highway. The Thunder are coming of a motivated win over Detroit by 18 points which avenged a loss in Detroit earlier in the month by 16 points. New York is coming off a home-and-home set with Charlotte on Friday and Saturday with the home team winning the set. The Knicks won in overtime at MSG but lost by five points in Charlotte the next night which snapped a three-game winning streak. With the Friday win over the Hornets, the Knicks have won six straight home games and the home team is now 13-3 in their 16 games on the season. New York is 5-1 ATS this season as a favorite while also sitting at 5-1 ATS at home against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma City is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games as a road underdog of six points or less while going 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (506) New York Knicks |
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11-27-16 | Kings v. Nets +4.5 | Top | 122-105 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Sacramento hits the road following a rugged five-game homestand where it went 2-3 against some very powerful teams. The Kings are just 2-5 on the road and while this seems like an easy start to the roadtrip, this is the first time all season they have been favored on the highway. They have not fared well in these spots in the past as the Kings are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Brooklyn is mired in a six-game losing skid but it too has played some elite teams during this stretch. The Nets have failed to cover any of these games and the last four have not even been competitive. This is the time to jump on board however as the situation and setup is in their favor. Brooklyn has won three of seven games outright this season as a home underdog and the home team is 11-4 in its 15 games this season. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging 103 or more ppg on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (706) Brooklyn Nets |
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11-27-16 | Rams +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 21-49 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
The Rams lost a tough one last week as they blew a 10-0 lead in the fourth quarter in falling to the Dolphins 14-10. The offense was not able to generate much but quarterback Jared Goff was fairly efficient as he went 17-31 for 134 yards and most importantly, no picks. He gets a much better matchup this week and after one game under his belt, he should be able to open it up more. The Saints lost their second straight game following a pair of wins to fall to 4-6 and remain two games behind the Falcons in the NFC South. This is the identical record as that of the Rams yet New Orleans is laying a touchdown and even more in some places. The key here is the defenses as the Saints are ranked No. 22 in total defense and No. 30 in scoring defense while the Rams are No. 6 and No. 5 respectively. The Rams have two situations on their side. First, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off a road loss, playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 49-16 ATS (75.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against home teams after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1983. 10* (263) Los Angeles Rams |
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11-27-16 | Bengals +4 v. Ravens | Top | 14-19 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
The Bengals have not won since before their trip to London as they are 0-2-1 but a couple breaks their way and they could be on a four-game winning streak right now. The two losses came by a combined five points against the Giants and Bills and now they head to Baltimore in a must win game without their top playmaker A.J. Green. There is still plenty of talent on both sides of the ball and despite being three games under .500, it is just -27 in point differential and just a game and a half behind Pittsburgh. Baltimore is coming off a loss at Dallas to fall to 5-5 and it is now 2-5 after a 3-0 start. Of the five wins, only one has been a dominating one and that was against Cleveland two games back. The Ravens have been outgained in five of their last six games so this is a team not to trust laying points of anything more than a field goal. Cincinnati falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams at +/- 3 ppg, after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 94-44 ATS (68.1 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Bengals are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss while the Ravens are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss. 10* (257) Cincinnati Bengals |
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11-27-16 | Chargers -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
Surprising to some, San Diego is favored on the road at Houston but it really is not that big of a surprise. The Chargers are just 4-6 on the season but they have lost some tough games all season, five of which have come by seven points or less. They have outgained six of their last seven opponents and despite a 1-4 road record, all of those losses could have been wins including two that went to overtime. Houston is coming off a devastating loss against the Raiders in Mexico City as it has a seven-point lead early in the fourth quarter but then allowed two touchdowns. That is a tough loss to recover from as the offense continues to bog the whole team down. The Texans are No. 30 in total offense and No. 28 in scoring offense. Conversely, the Chargers are No. 8 and No. 2 respectively in those categories and are very balanced. The Texans possess a strong defense but after what happened in the fourth quarter Monday night, that defense is vulnerable. Here, we play on road favorites that are completing 60 or more of their passes, after allowing 7 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (251) San Diego Chargers |
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11-27-16 | Cardinals +6 v. Falcons | Top | 19-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
We played against Arizona last Sunday in Minnesota as that was a bad matchup for the Cardinals. They actually held their own however as they outgained Minnesota by 73 total yards but were killed by a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown and a 104-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Now they go from facing the No. 3 ranked defense to facing the No. 28 ranked defense so the offense should be fine after putting less than 300 yards last week. Atlanta has lost three of its last five games and following its bye week, this is a big game for the Falcons but the matchup is not in their favor at all. Despite this, they are laying a bigger than expected number and this time of year, the defenses are very important. While Matt Ryan and the offense has been great all year, Atlanta now has to tackle the No. 1 ranked defense in the NFL. While it has suffered some close losses, Atlanta has had its share of close wins that could have gone the other way. The Falcons fall into a negative situation where we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 in the second half of the season after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a losing team. This situation is 56-23 ATS (70.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (259) Arizona Cardinals |
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11-26-16 | Tennessee v. Vanderbilt +7.5 | Top | 34-45 | Win | 102 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
There are nine teams playing on Saturday that must win to reach six victories and gain a bowl game berth. One of those is Vanderbilt which improved to 5-6 with a big win over Mississippi 38-17. The Commodores improved to 3-2 at home with the two losses coming by a combined 10 points to Florida and South Carolina and overall, only one of their six losses have been by double-digits which came at Georgia Tech. The defense has kept them in most of their games this season. Tennessee as it opened 5-0 but had trouble pulling away in most of those then went on to lose three straight games. The Volunteers have recovered to win their last three games but one was against Tennessee Tech of the FCS and another was against 3-8 Missouri. The other came against Kentucky but they were outgained in the process. Additionally, all three of those games were at home and in four road games, Tennessee has been outgained three times. Vanderbilt has the nation’s second-best red-zone defense at 66.7 percent (26 of 39). The Commodores have been particularly good in holding teams to field goals, as opponents have scored only 18 touchdowns in 39 trips inside the 20. 10* (212) Vanderbilt Commodores |
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11-26-16 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
Oregon played its bowl game last week as after enduring seven losses in eight games, the Ducks won at Utah to deny the Utes and chance of winning the Pac 12 South Division. They are just 4-7 and while they will be pumped for the Civil War, how much they have left in the tank in the question. Oregon has won eight straight in this series but in all of those instances, the Ducks came in with at least eight wins. Oregon St. is not having a good season wither as the Beavers are 3-8 but they are also coming off a win as they blew out Arizona last week 42-17. Ending the season with two straight wins would be huge as they have not accomplished that since 2007 which happened to be the last time they defeated Oregon. The Ducks are just 1-5 ATS as favorites this season including 0-2 ATS on the road while Oregon St. is 4-0 ATS as a home underdog. The Beavers have a great situation on their side as we play against road teams coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (190) Oregon St. Beavers |
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11-26-16 | Minnesota +15 v. Wisconsin | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
We played on Minnesota last week as it defeated Northwestern and we will back the Gophers again this week. They are 8-3 on the season and none of those three losses were bad losses. All came against teams with at least seven wins and the losses came by three, seven and seven points. The Gophers have a chance to win nine games in a season for the first time in 13 years. Wisconsin is having a very strong season at 9-2 with those two losses coming against Ohio St. and Michigan in consecutive games and both were by just a touchdown. While this game is arguably more important for the Badgers based on the Playoff rankings, Minnesota is not going to back down in this heated rivalry game. The Paul Bunyan Axe is at stake today and even though Wisconsin has won the last 12 editions, seven have been decided by fewer points than what Minnesota is getting here and those were a lot worse Gopher teams. Here, we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage of .800 or better that have won eight or more out of their last 10 games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 56-23 ATS (70.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (165) Minnesota Golden Gophers |
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11-26-16 | Duke v. Miami (Fla) -15 | Top | 21-40 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
It has been an up and down season for Miami as it started 4-0 then lost four straight games but has followed that up with three consecutive victories. The defense has been the story in the turnaround as the Hurricanes allowed 28 points against Pittsburgh which is the fewest points the Panthers have scored since Week One and the last two weeks they have allowed 13 and 14 points. The offense has also shown an uptick during the current winning streak. Duke was aiming for a fifth straight bowl game but the goal was denied last week in Pittsburgh as the Blue Devils were hammered 56-14. It has now been four losses in the last five games for Duke as the defense continues to get pummeled. Of their 10 games against FBS opponents, the Blue Devils have been outgained in eight of those and will have a tough time keeping up with Miami as they are not nearly as talented while mentally, they have to be in a tough place after the loss last week, Miami falls into a great situation based on its defense as we play on teams after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 71-35 ATS (67 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (168) Miami Florida Hurricanes |
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11-26-16 | Central Michigan v. Green Bay -5.5 | Top | 89-77 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
This is a classic case of experience versus inexperience with the latter taking a trip to a very tough environment. Central Michigan is off to a 4-2 start but do not let that record fool you any as two of those win came against non-Division I teams. The Chippewas are coming off a decent 17-16 season a year ago but they do not have much back as they have only six scholarship players returning. Guard Marcus Keene leads the team in scoring at 29.3 ppg which is also tops in the nation but after that, there is not much. Green Bay is 3-2 and will be playing just its second home game of the season. Since 2011-12, the Resch Center has been one of the toughest places for the opposition as the Phoenix are 63-13 here. They bring back seven seniors from the team that went 23-13last season and will be making another run at the Horizon League title. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging 76 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 74 and 76 ppg, after scoring 95 points or more. This situation is 48-17 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (528) Green Bay Phoenix |
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11-25-16 | Wolves -1 v. Suns | Top | 98-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
It has not been the start Minnesota was hoping for. The Timberwolves came into the season as a popular pick for a huge turnaround as they are loaded with talent but is has been disappointing so far. They are just 4-10 overall but they have mostly struggled against the top teams in the league, going 1-7 against the top 16. Despite the poor start, they are still ranked No. 17 in the latest power rankings. Phoenix won the final game of its recent six-game roadtrip where it went 2-4 overall. The Suns are 5-11 on the season including a 2-3 record at home with a pair of poor losses against Sacramento and Brooklyn. This is a tough team to trust and they fall into a negative contrarian situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off an upset win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 57-26 ATS (68.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Phoenix 1s 7-19 ATS in its last 16 games after 1 or more consecutive wins including 1-3 ATS this season. 10* (721) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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11-25-16 | Hornets v. Knicks | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
We played on Charlotte Wednesday and it resulted in a push or a win depending on the line but nonetheless, the Hornets lost their third straight game. After a red hot 6-1 start, Charlotte has dropped five of its last seven games but three of those came against division leaders while the other two came against Memphis and New Orleans which are on 6-0 and 4-0 runs respectively. New York has won two straight and four of its last five games and in addition, the Knicks have won five straight home games but only one of those has been against a team with a winning record. Here, we play on road teams after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games going up against an opponent after a win by six points or less. This situation is 28-5 ATS (84.8 percent) over the last five seasons. On top of that, New York is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games as a home underdog of six points or less while the favorite is 12-2 straight up in the Hornets games this season. 10* (705) Charlotte Hornets |
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11-25-16 | Clippers v. Pistons +6.5 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
The Clippers have the best record in the NBA at 14-2 and they are one of just two teams that are perfect on the road as they are 7-0. Because of that, they are paying the price in this number as adjustments have to made by the linesmakers yet are still a big consensus play for tonight. The Pistons are two games under .500 following their win over Miami on Wednesday and that was a big victory that snapped a four-game slide. Detroit is 6-2 at home while going just 1-7 on the road and it will be out for some revenge as well as it lost the first meeting in Los Angeles by 32 points and trailed by as many as 43 points. The Pistons have excelled in these spots of late as they are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games revenging a loss against opponent of 10 points or more including going a perfect 8-0 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points. Additionally, the Clippers are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points while going just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against teams from the Eastern Conference. 10* (710) Detroit Pistons |
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11-25-16 | Toledo +9.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 35-55 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 60 m | Show |
We played against Toledo in its last game as it went through the motions against Ball St. in looking ahead to this game while trying to remain as healthy as possible. The Rockets can take the MAC West with the victory and while they do have two losses, they were by a combined seven points and they won the yardage battle in both. Western Michigan has steamrolled the opposition all season with each of its last 10 wins coming by at least 14 points. However, one look at the schedule will show why as of those 10 wins, only two came against teams that will be playing in a bowl game and none with more than seven wins. This line is not giving Toledo the respect it deserves. We play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams averaging 440 or more ypg, after gaining 475 or more total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Broncos are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 home games against teams averaging 425 ypg while Toledo is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. 10* (117) Toledo Rockets |
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11-25-16 | TCU v. Texas -2.5 | Top | 31-9 | Loss | -132 | 51 h 14 m | Show |
This is likely the final game for Texas head coach Charlie Strong as all indications is that he will be fired at the end of the regular season. The Longhorns need a win to secure a bowl bid and while Strong probably will not be around to coach them should they win, the players have his back and they will be playing for him here. TCU is also in need of one more win but it has two games left as it hosts Kansas St. next week. The Horned Frogs have endured some close losses this season but they have been outgained in four of their last six games including a horrible performance at home against Oklahoma St. last week in a 31-6 loss. TCO has rolled over Texas in the last two meetings 48-10 and 50-7 so there is the element of revenge in play here as well. Texas falls into a solid great situation where we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a home loss by 14 or more points. This situation is 39-13 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. TCU is just 2-8 ATS this season and while those two wins were on the road, Texas is 4-1 ATS at home this season, the lone setback coming by just four points against a very solid West Virginia team. 10* (128) Texas Longhorns |
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11-25-16 | NC State +11.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
There are four teams playing on Friday that need to win to get a bowl bid and NC State is one of those teams. The Wolfpack have faltered down the stretch by going 1-5 over their last six games after a 4-1 start but the rivalry aspect can throw this recent streak out the window. Four of their lasses have come by a touchdown or less including two where they actually won the yardage battle as turnovers were the difference. North Carolina has a lot at stake as well but needs a lot of help to attain it. The Tar Heels need to win here and have Virginia Tech lose to 2-9 Virginia on Saturday for them to win the ACC Coastal but the latter is very unlikely to happen. North Carolina can still take care of business here but covering a huge number is a totally different story. The Tar Heels have three wins by a touchdown or less this season and going back, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Meanwhile NC State is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after two consecutive games where it forced one or less turnovers. Rumor has it that NC State head coach Dave Doeren will be let go his team not go to a bowl game but his players will go all out in trying to save him. 10* (133) NC State Wolfpack |
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