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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-01-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Georgia Tech +7.5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on GEORGIA TECH for our Saturday Afternoon Dominator. We lost with Georgia Tech last Thursday night as it was completely dominated by Clemson which was a bit of a surprise considering how well the Yellow Jackets were playing coming into that game. The Tigers brought their A game for the first time this season and unfortunately it came against Georgia Tech. that line closed at 10.5 so is Miami just three points worse than Clemson? I do not believe so. The Hurricanes are off to a 3-0 start and while they have been impressive in blowing out all three opponents to move up to No. 14 in the polls, the ease of the schedule has had a lot to do with it. They have played the 174th ranked schedule in the nation which is the easiest schedule of all teams ranked No. 30 or better. This is by far the biggest challenge of the season for Miami and a bigger challenge may be staying focused here with Florida St. on tap for next week, a team the Hurricanes have lost six straight meetings against. The Yellow Jackets, who were held to just 124 yards last week against the Tigers, pose a different kind of challenge with their unique triple-option offense that relies on misdirection and the young Miami front seven will have troubles. The home team has won the last three meetings the last three years with relative ease and the outright victory here is more than possible. Georgia Tech has covered 13 of its last 19 games after scoring fewer than 20 points in its last game. 10* (158) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington -3 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 35 h 9 m | Show |
The Pac 12 looks like it is going to be wide open this season and the two frontrunners in the North Division square off on Friday night in Seattle. While Stanford is getting most of the accolades thanks to victories over USC and UCLA to open 2-0 in the conference, Washington is feeling quite a bit underappreciated here. The Huskies are off to a 4-0 start and while the schedule has not been overly tough, that is helping with the number here. Exceptional teams take care of business and Washington has done just that as it has outgained all four opponents by an average of 124.5 ypg. Conversely, Stanford has outgained its three opponents by only 13 yards combined and while the schedule can be to blame, it only gets tougher here. The passing game has been an issue for the Cardinal all season on both sides of the ball and it only gets worse here. Jake Browning had a great season as a true freshman for Washington and he has been nearly unstoppable this season thus far, passing for 904 yards at a 70.5 percent completion clip while tossing 14 touchdowns and just two picks. The Stanford passing defense has done a good job however it will be missing both starting cornerbacks, Quenton Meeks and Alijah Holder, as they were hurt last week against UCLA. That is a huge disadvantage against the speed of the Huskies. This is the first top ten matchup that Washington has played since 1997 so this home game is going to be crazy and will be an atmosphere that Stanford quarterback Ryan Burns has yet to see. This is the best defense Washington has had in years and will no doubt be up to the challenge of containing Christian McCaffrey after he gashed them for 300 all-purpose yards last season. 10* (110) Washington Huskies |
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09-30-16 | Phoenix Mercury +7 v. Minnesota Lynx | Top | 86-96 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The first two games of the WNBA Semifinals were anything but competitive as they were decided by 18 and 20 points but we should see things come back to normality on Friday. Chicago is playing without Elena Delle Donne which makes it a very touch matchup against a big Los Angeles team but Phoenix has the chance to make this a series once again. While the Mercury are far from a defensive juggernaut, there was little they could do on Wednesday against Minnesota as the Lynx shot 63.9 percent from the floor in their Game One victory. After a very competitive first quarter, Minnesota started the second quarter with a 19-4 run and went on to set a WNBA record for more points scored in regulation in a playoff game. Because of the margin of victory in Game One, the line for Game Two has gone up to add to the value and Phoenix has two great contrarian situations on its side. First, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg, after scoring 90 points or more. This situation is 69-37 ATS (65.1 percent) since 1997. Second, we play on teams in the second half of the season that possess a winning percentage between .400 and .499 and are coming off a conference loss by 10 points or more, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 52-21 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (655) Phoenix Mercury |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 7-22 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
A pair of struggling teams take the field Thursday night as Miami and Cincinnati are both off to 1-2 starts. The schedules have not been easy for either team but that is really no excuse as both are underachieving. Miami nearly fell to 0-3 but escaped with an overtime win last week against Cleveland which was playing with a third-string rookie quarterback and it still outgained the Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Bengals are a field goal miss away from being 0-3 as they opened the season with a win against the Jets thanks to a 47-yard field goal from Mike Nugent with just 54 seconds remaining. Cincinnati has lost its last two games to Pittsburgh and Denver which is nothing to be ashamed of but both of those games could have gone either way. That being said, the fact we have two desperate teams in need of a big win means we should have a very competitive game as there is very little dropoff between Miami and Cincinnati. Yet, the linesmakers are giving Cincinnati a lot of credit here but it has done nothing to prove it deserves it. Miami was a 5.5-point underdog at New England two weeks ago and even without Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are a better team than the Bengals. Additionally, the Dolphins are seeing over a 17-point swing from last week to this week which is a huge variance in this league and one that should prove to be too big. Miami has not been a touchdown underdog to any team not named New England since September of 2013. 10* (101) Miami Dolphins |
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09-29-16 | Reds +180 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
The Wild Card races in both leagues is likely to be decided this weekend and the Cardinals are right in the hunt with four games left. They are a game behind San Francisco for the second spot in the National League so of course every game is a must win at this point with the linesmakers being well aware of that. The problem is that St. Louis has been awful all season at home, going 34-43 at Busch Stadium which is the worst home record in baseball for teams that have a winning record overall. The Cardinals are 4-10 in their last 14 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. This is the final road game of the season for the Reds and this is where their season fell apart as they are 20 games under .500 on the highway but have far from quit. After the win last night, they have won four of their last five games with pitching once again being dominant, allowing two runs or less in those four wins. Pitching will take the stage again tonight with Dan Straily taking the hill and while he is far from a household name, he is having a great season. In 30 starts, he has a 3.74 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with Cincinnati winning 20 of those games which accounts for close to one-third of their total victories on the season. He has been by far the most profitable starter on the staff and going back, the Reds are 13-3 in his last 16 starts including going 6-0 in his last six starts against teams with a winning record. The Cardinals turn to Alex Reyes who is making just his fifth start of the season so his is still an unknown. While the Reds cannot hit lefties, they have teed off on righties and we expect more of the same here. 10* (957) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-28-16 | Rockies +175 v. Giants | Top | 2-0 | Win | 175 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
The Giants opened this series last night with a victory and they remain a game ahead of St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The second half has been a nightmare for San Francisco and putting together any sort of winning streak has been a problem as since the All Star Break, the Giants are 6-20 in their 26 games following a victory. Colorado has dropped the first five games of its roadtrip as the offense has been unable to get off the ground but it is important to note that four of those five games have come against left-handed starters which they have struggled against this season. Jeff Samardzija gets the ball and he has been very inconsistent this season as just 16 of his 31 starts have been quality outings. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season where he allowed no runs over seven innings but in two previous starts this season where he allowed no runs, the Giants lost his next start where he allowed six runs in 10 combined innings. Coors Field can be a nightmare for many pitchers and that is certainly the case for Tyler Chatwood. In 14 home starts, he has a 6.12 ERA and 1.64 WHIP but in 12 road starts, he has a 1.88 ERA and 1.17 WHIP so he clearly prefers the highway and this has been the case throughout his career. He is coming off another quality road start against the Dodgers but the bullpen could not come through. In his last two starts against the Giants, he has allowed just one earned run in 12 combined innings. 10* (913) Colorado Rockies |
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09-28-16 | Brewers +195 v. Rangers | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
After losing the opener of this series on Monday, the Rangers won last night to move a half-game ahead of the Red Sox for the best record in the American League. Overall, it has not been a great month for Texas as since a seven-game winning streak, it has gone 11-11 over its last 22 games while going 0-5 over its last five games after scoring five runs in its previous game. Milwaukee is just playing out the string but has not quit as the Brewers are 15-11 over their last 26 games and the profits have been huge as most of those victories have come as a sizeable underdog. Additionally, they are 17-10 on the season in Game Three following a loss. It has been a huge turnaround for Chase Anderson after struggling over the first half of the season. In 17 starts prior to the All Star Break, he posted a 5.44 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while going 4-10 but after the break, he is 5-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 13 games including 12 starts. In those 12 starts, he has not allowed more than three runs in any of them. Texas counters with Cole Hamels who has been very solid this season with a 3.30 ERA in 31 starts. However, his WHIP of 1.31 is far from dominant and most of his success has come on the road where he has a 2.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Conversely, he has a 4.45 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 14 home starts and he catches a Brewers team that has won five straight road games against left-handed starters. 10* (929) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-28-16 | Phoenix Mercury +6 v. Minnesota Lynx | Top | 95-113 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Minnesota and Phoenix are meeting with a trip to the WNBA Finals on the line for the fourth year in a row and the fifth time in six years. The Lynx finished the season with the best record in the league which gave them a double-bye in the new playoff format and while that can be considered an advantage, it may not be very helpful for this first game. They have been off for 11 days which is a huge amount of time off that can break up any sort of team chemistry and we saw it once with this team as they lost outright to Connecticut following the lengthy Olympic break. Phoenix survived both one-and-done playoff games as is peaking at the right time. It was a very disappointing season for the Mercury as they finished two games under .500 but they have played their best since starting 4-9 and a lot of that can be blamed on chemistry. Diana Taurasi missed all of last season and while she has been outstanding this year, it took some time for the team to get together. While Minnesota is the clear favorite in this series, Phoenix is catching a big number in this opener and will certainly be out for revenge after getting swept by Minnesota in the three-game season series. The Mercury have covered seven of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record while going 5-0 ATS in their last five games after three or more days of rest. Additionally, they have covered all three games this season when getting 5 or more points. 10* (651) Phoenix Mercury |
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09-27-16 | Cubs v. Pirates +154 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
With the victory last night, the Cubs secured their first 100-win season in 81 years so it would not be surprising to see some players being rested over the final six games of the regular season which would be a bonus for tonight. It has been a disappointing season for the Pirates which are now two games under .500 after their third straight loss last night. Ryan Vogelsong takes the hill tonight for Pittsburgh and after a solid start from his return from the disabled list, he has recently been struggling although his most recent start was encouraging. He was pulled after just four innings but pitched well, allowing just two runs on two hits while striking out seven. Only 70 pitches thrown is a bonus. The Cubs counter with John Lackey who is coming off a quality start but that was at home where he has been spot on all season. He has struggled on the road with a 4.54 ERA in 12 starts and this will be just his fourth road start since the beginning of July compared to nine home starts. Chicago has dropped four of his last five road outings and while the lone win happened to come here in Pittsburgh, he allowed five runs in six innings but was backed by six runs from his offense. 10* (952) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-27-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees +182 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 182 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
The Red Sox clinched a playoff spot last night after the Yankees scored five runs in the ninth inning to defeat the Blue Jays and they can clinch the American League East with a win tonight. After being swept in Boston a couple weeks back, New York will try every bit for Boston to not celebrate at Yankee Stadium and the momentum from last night can carry over into this series opener. Luis Cessa will be making his eighth start of the season and he has been very solid thus far since coming out from the bullpen. He has a 4.30 ERA which does not look great but he backs it up with a 1.14 WHIP which is a better indication of how he has been. He has allowed more than three runs only once and he has been at his best under the lights where he possesses a 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP covering 40.1 innings. David Price has been unbeatable of late as he has not lost since early August while the Red Sox have won his last nine starts. Facing the Yankees has not been good to him however as they have been the one team that has brought him down the most this season. He has a 7.71 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in four starts against them and Boston has dropped both of his starts in New York. 10* (966) New York Yankees |
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09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
New Orleans comes into Monday night in pretty much must win mode and it could not happen on a better night. This is the 10-year anniversary of the re-opening of the Superdome in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. It is almost 10 years ago to the day that the Saints defeated the Falcons 23-3 highlighted by the epic Steve Gleason blocked punt return and while the atmosphere will not be as crazy, it will be close. New Orleans dropped its opener against the Raiders by a point on a last second two-point conversion at home before losing by a field goal last week in New York against the Giants so it has been victim of some unfortunate luck. The Falcons meanwhile have split their first two games, losing at home by a touchdown to the Buccaneers and winning in Oakland by a touchdown last week. Matt Ryan has looked outstanding in his first two gamers and he will be asked to shoulder the load once again as without any pressure up front, Atlanta's defense has struggled. The Falcons unit ranks 26th against the run, 23rd against the pass and second-to-last in sacks per pass attempt. The Saints defense is not much better but they put together a great gameplan last week as they used a lot of packages employing three safeties and played more zone coverage. Under head coach Sean Payton, New Orleans has gone 14-4 against the Falcons including an 8-2 record at home since 2006. Going back, the Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss while the Falcons are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (490) New Orleans Saints |
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09-26-16 | Reds +181 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-2 | Win | 181 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
St. Louis is coming off a 5-5 roadtrip and sits a half-game behind San Francisco for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Cardinals head home where things have not been very good all season as they are 33-41 at Busch Stadium, easily the worst home record in baseball for teams that possess a winning record. The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last six home games following a road trip of seven or more days. The Reds season has been done long ago but following four straight losses to begin this roadtrip, they won the final two games in Milwaukee over the weekend so they bring in some momentum. The Reds are now 5-2 in their last seven games following a win. Cincinnati hands the ball to Tim Adleman who has pitched solid this season, his first in the bigs. Adleman has allowed three runs or less in nine of his 11 starts this season including all five on the road where four of those have resulted in quality performances. He has not produced the win due to lack of run support but that can definitely change here. Jaime Garcia has struggled all season with consistency and he is in his worst stretch all season. He has an 8.23 ERA over his last six starts, a run that put him into the bullpen for two weeks but he gets another shot as the Cardinals decided to push back Adan Wainwright for one day. It may not be pretty once again. 10* (174) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-25-16 | Bears +8 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -125 | 76 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Star Attraction. Chicago has gotten off to a rough start by going 0-2 but it has not been as bad as that record shows. The Bears hung tough with the Texans in Week One before losing by nine points and last week they were did in by the Eagles and had no chance after Jay Cutler went down. Brian Hoyer will be starting this week and while he was unable to mount a comeback last week, having a full week of preparation instead of getting thrown into the fire is big. The Cowboys have split their two games with the Giants and Redskins and easily could also be sitting at 0-2. While the Dallas defense has allowed just 21.5 ppg, the unit has not been very good as they have allowed 374 ypg. Dak Prescott has played pretty well for a rookie but he has an 83.1 passer rating and while he has yet to throw a pick, he has yet to throw a touchdown either. Because of the Cutler injury, this line is way overpriced as these teams are not that far off from each other. Dallas has notoriously been a poor play as a home favorite as it has covered just of its last 25 games in this role. Going back to 2014, Chicago is 1-11 in its last 12 home games but a much more respectable 5-4 in its last nine road games. Additionally, the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. 10* (487) Chicago Bears |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs -5 | Top | 37-32 | Loss | -114 | 72 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Tampa Bay played a great game in its season opening win over Atlanta and it was just the opposite last week at Arizona as the Buccaneers were throttled 40-7 no thanks to five turnovers including four interceptions from Jameis Winston. Expect a big bounce back effort from him and we will no doubt see a better effort from the defense that has allowed 32 ppg. This is the home opener for Tampa Bay and while its home field advantage is not a great one, it is more advantageous this time of year because of the heat and humidity. The Rams have been just the opposite through two games as well but theirs have been reversed. They were awful in their opener against a horrible San Francisco teams, losing 28-0 and getting outgained by 135 yards. Last week, Los Angeles upset the Seahawks at home but managed only nine points on offense in doing so. This offense has a long ways o go and while the defense looked very strong against the Seahawks, Seattle has its own offensive issues going on. The Rams were still outgained last week despite the win. This line has been creeping yup but for good reason and we will back the favorite in what could have blowout potential. Going back, the Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (480) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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09-25-16 | Vikings +7 v. Panthers | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 69 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Game of the Month. This is a complete overreaction to what happened last week. After losing to Denver in their season opener, the Panthers rolled over San Francisco on Sunday. They outgained the 49ers by 227 total yards in what was an awful situation for San Francisco coming off a short week win and having to play an early game on the east coast against a well-rested team. That line closed at 12 and there is no chance that the 49ers are only five points worse than Minnesota. The Vikings meanwhile are 2-0 as they defeated Tennessee on the road before winning last Sunday night at home against Green Bay. Sam Bradford was exceptional in his first start but the bigger story was the loss of Adrian Peterson who is likely out for the season. While he is tough to replace, he is not the same player and has lost a step for sure. He averaged just 1.6 ypc in 31 carries so was doing nothing special anyway. The Norv Turner/Bradford offense is arguably better off now as they can open things up more which is better equipped for this team. The defense as they have allowed just 289.5 ypg and 15 ppg, No. 5 and No. 6 respectively in the NFL. The Panthers have covered seven straight games at home which is adding to the value but the Vikings have been better, going 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games while covering 14 of their last 17 games following a win. 10* (475) Minnesota Vikings |
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09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -102 | 69 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. This is the classic look at the records matchup which had affected the line. Baltimore comes in undefeated and is the worst 2-0 team in the league at this point. The Ravens defeated a hapless Bills team by only six points and then beat Cleveland last week in part due to the injury of Browns quarterback Josh McCown who was not the same after having to get checked out. They were actually outgained by the Browns and overall, the defense is overrated based on who they have played while the offense can be held accountable for the same thing. Jacksonville meanwhile is 0-2 but has played better than that. The Jaguars are tied for last in the NFL in turnover margin at -3 which has been part of the issue but it has to be noted that they have outgained both opponents thus far albeit not by much but all that matter is they have been on the positive. So now because we have two teams with opposite records, the Ravens come in as a road favorite. It is interesting to note that last November, with a healthy Joe Flacco, Baltimore was favored by only five points at home and there is no way they are a much better team now. And Jacksonville won. This is a much bigger game for the Jaguars and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (468) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-25-16 | Redskins +5 v. Giants | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 69 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON REDSKINS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is another example of records dictating the line. The Redskins have dropped their first two games and while they lost to Pittsburgh by 22 points, they were outgained by just 53 total yards but two turnovers in bad spots, nine penalties and having to settle for field goals did them in. Last week, they had a chance to beat the Cowboys but fell just short despite outgaining Dallas by 52 total yards. The rushing defense has been the issue but the Giants do not possess a strong running attack like the ones they have already faced. New York is 2-0 but it is an ugly 2-0 as it has won both games by a combined four points. The Giants did outgain New Orleans by 129 yards but were unable to complete drives against a bad Saints defense and their only touchdown came via a blocked field goal return. Now because of the opposing records, the Giants are overvalued as with this being a divisional game against pretty equal teams, the line should be -3 so catching anything above that presents solid value. The Giants defense is a very solid unit but the Redskins have the playmakers to take advantage. Washington can ill afford to fall three games out of first place in the NFC East after just three games so we will see an all-out effort on both sides of the ball. 10* (471) Washington Redskins |
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09-25-16 | Atlanta Dream v. Chicago Sky -2.5 | Top | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
The home floor did no good yesterday for New York although it did play good enough to win but Phoenix was an incredible 24-24 from the free throw line. The home floor should make a difference today however as Chicago hosts Atlanta in the final single elimination game of the playoffs. The Sky closed the regular season with a loss at Seattle but played very well over the second half of the season after a very slow start. Chicago went just 8-12 in its first 20 games but went 10-4 after that which includes a five-game home winning streak. Atlanta survived Seattle on Wednesday as it was able to pull away in the fourth quarter after the game was tied at 66 after three periods. The Dream went on a 24-6 run sparked by Angel McCoughtry who finished with 37 points. Elena Delle Donne has been ruled out in this game but Chicago did go 3-2 in her absence with both losses coming on the road. As mentioned, the home floor should come into play today as Chicago is 11-6 at while Atlanta is the exact opposite with a 6-11 record on the road. This includes a 2-10 record on the highway over its last 12 following a solid 4-1 start. The spread records are in line as well as the Dream are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games while the Dream are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 10* (608) Chicago Sky |
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09-24-16 | California v. Arizona State -3.5 | Top | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 59 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on ARIZONA ST. for our Pac 12 Game of the Year. Arizona St. spotted UTSA a 28-15 lead last Friday night before scoring 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory. It was a misleading final score however as the Sun Devils outgained the Roadrunners by 147 total yards but lost the turnover battle 3-0 which made the game closer than it probably should have been. Nonetheless, they are 3-0 heading into conference action and continue to fly under the radar and that suits them just fine. California is off to a 2-1 start following an upset win at home last Saturday against Texas. This is another misleading final however as the Bears were outgained by 61 total yards but benefitted from two Texas turnovers that led to 14 points. Their defense was horrid once again as they allowed 568 total yards including 307 yards on the ground. Overall, California is ranked No. 118 in total defense and No. 126 in rushing defense and will face a Sun Devils offense that is No. 18 and No. 16 respectively in those categories offensively. There is revenge involved here as well as Arizona St. lost in the final seconds in Berkley which gave them a losing Pac 12 record for the first time since 2011. Arizona St. is 20-4 in its last 24 home games with three of those losses coming against ranked teams and the other coming in triple overtime. 10* (402) Arizona St. Sun Devils |
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09-24-16 | Louisville v. Marshall +27 | Top | 59-28 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on MARSHALL for our Saturday Enforcer. Louisville is coming off one of the greatest wins in program history as it absolutely annihilated then No. 2 ranked Florida St. by a score of 63-20. It was the third straight game to open the season that the Cardinals have scored at least 62 points but if there ever was a spot to go against a juggernaut like them, this is it. There will surely be a letdown following that victory but adding to the possibility of a sleepwalk is the fact Louisville travels to Clemson next week for another massive game. Clearly this is a public team now and the linesmakers have needed to make adjustments and it is much too big of one in this case. Adding to the size of the number is the fact that Marshall is coming off a 65-38 loss to Akron at home. This could be the most deceiving final score of last weekend however as the Thundering Herd won the yardage battle by 36 yards but in the second quarter Akron had a fumble return for a touchdown, a blocked punt return for a touchdown and an interception in the redzone that led to another touchdown. Additionally, they had an interception return for a touchdown to close out the game. Marshall was -3 in turnover margin and not many teams can win by doing that. A repeat of that here spells disaster but the thinking is that the Thundering Herd right the ship. Remember, this is a team that is going to contend for the C-USA Championship. 10* (352) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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09-24-16 | Bowling Green +16.5 v. Memphis | Top | 3-77 | Loss | -106 | 57 h 32 m | Show |
We played on Bowling Green last Saturday and got a bit unlucky as the game ended up being played in a monsoon and turnover were the difference as the Falcons committed four in total which led to 21 Middle Tennessee points. Bowling Green was outgained by only three yards and had a 24-20 first down advantage. This is another one of those games which proves looking at just the score does no good and can be very misleading. The Falcons are expected to contend in the MAC East and while conference action starts next week, it comes against lowly Eastern Michigan so there is no chance of a lookahead. The same cannot be said for Memphis which travels to Mississippi to face the hated Rebels in the Mid-South Rivalry. The Tigers are 2-0 as they have already had their bye week but it can be argued that they have had three bye weeks as the first two games have come against SE. Missouri St. and Kansas. Last week, they outgained Kansas by just 80 yards as they were able to win the turnover battle 6-0 as the Jayhawks turned it over four times in Memphis territory. Memphis is still an unknown but is expected to take a drop back after losing quarterback Paxton Lynch and head coach Justin Fuente to Virginia Tech. Bowling Green is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after three or more consecutive losses against the spread while Memphis is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. 10* (385) Bowling Green Falcons |
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09-24-16 | Phoenix Mercury v. New York Liberty +2.5 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is the third straight game to open the WNBA playoffs where the road team is favored. In the first two games on Wednesday, there was no issue with that based on the seedings of the teams but now, this should not be the case. Phoenix is laying over a bucket on the road and while it is clearly the hotter teams, it is not the better team. The Mercury have won three straight games but even with the last two coming on the road, they are just 6-12 in 18 road games on the season. New York had a first round bye which came at a perfect time as it enters the postseason riding a three-game losing streak. The Liberty were not at full strength in the final two games however as they rested players after already having locked up the No. 3 seed. Brittney Griner usually has an edge down low for Phoenix but this is one matchup where that is not the case. Tina Charles has been dominating all season and that includes games against the Mercury as she has averaged 26.6 ppg and 11.0 rpg in three games against Phoenix this season. New York won two of the three meetings with the lone loss coming in overtime. In the two meetings in New York, the Liberty were favored by the same amount they are getting here so there is a five-point swing and this includes one meeting just three weeks ago and there is no way these teams are that far different from then until now. 10* (606) New York Liberty |
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09-24-16 | Georgia Southern +7 v. Western Michigan | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -107 | 56 h 32 m | Show |
A pair of undefeated teams square off in Kalamazoo and we will be grabbing the generous number here. Georgia Southern is coming off a poor effort last week at home against UL-Monroe as it won but by just two points as it had to rally from a 14-0 first quarter deficit. Still, the rushing game was once again dominant and on the season, the Eagles are averaging 356.3 ypg on the ground which is close to what it averaged last season when it went 9-4 and won its first ever bowl game and that was also against a team from the MAC. Western Michigan is 3-0 following a big road win at Illinois last week, its second win over a Big Ten team this season which is pretty impressive for sure. But they have come against two of the worst teams in the conference so we are not overly impressed. While the Broncos will be out for some payback from the loss in Statesboro last season, this is not the ideal situation. Still celebrating the win from last week and heading on the road next week to face rival Central Michigan puts Western Michigan in a very tough sandwich spot. Additionally, we play against home favorites after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game going up against an opponent after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (341) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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09-24-16 | North Texas v. Rice -7.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -102 | 55 h 33 m | Show |
It has been a tough start to the season for Rice as it has dropped its first three games but those came against teams that are a combined 8-1. The Owls were able to stay within the number last week against Baylor and they should have no issues this week in getting their first victory. There is definitely value in this line as they went to North Texas last season and won by two touchdowns and were favored by the same amount that they are favored by at home this year. North Texas is 1-2 with the lone victory coming against Bethune Cookman of the FCS. The Mean Green were shutout at Florida last week while gaining just 53 yards of offense and while we are not making a comparison between the Gators and Owls, it shows what little talent North Texas has. It went 1-11 last season and is still in rebuilding mode as witnessed by a 13-point home opening loss against a pretty poor SMU team. This is the first time Rice has been favored this season and it is a role they have had great success in as the Owls are 10-2 in its last 12 games when laying points. Meanwhile, North Texas has lost 14 consecutive road games, covering just three of those in the process. This includes a 0-4 ATS mark when getting single digits, losing those games by an average of 19.5 ppg. This is a must win game for the Owls which travel to Southern Mississippi next week. 10* (338) Rice Owls |
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09-24-16 | Winnipeg +10 v. Calgary | Top | 34-36 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
The two hottest teams in the CFL square off on Saturday as Winnipeg heads to Calgary in a pivotal West Division matchup. The Blue Bombers won their seventh straight game last week as they rolled over Toronto and only one of those seven wins has been by less than a touchdown. Considering Winnipeg started the season 1-4, it has been a huge turnaround and has been keyed by a five-game winning streak on the road. The defense has been outstanding as after allowing 27 ppg in those first five games, the Blue Bombers have allowed just 19 ppg during their winning streak. Calgary meanwhile has not lost a game since opening week as it is on a 10-0-1 run and has clearly separated itself from the rest of the league. The Stampeders have covered their last seven games which is giving us solid value the other way. They were favored by just one more point in the last meeting that took place here but Winnipeg is a different team now that is playing with great confidence. The change at quarterback to Matt Nichols has made the offense much more efficient and they will be getting running back Andrew Harris back for the game today after a six-game stint on the IR. Winnipeg is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season on the road as a single-digit underdog. 10* (495) Winnipeg Blue Bombers |
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09-24-16 | Florida +6.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on FLORIDA for our Saturday Star Attraction. We were high on Tennessee coming into the season and we played on the Volunteers in their first game but did not come close to covering as they needed overtime to defeat Appalachian St. they then defeated Virginia Tech by 21 points but the Hokies lost five fumbles and actually won the yardage battle by 70 yards. Last week, it was another average outing as they beat Ohio by just nine points so clearly there is something not right with this team so laying anything close to a touchdown against a quality opponent is overaggressive. The talent is there for this team to make a serious run but the same can be said on the other side. Florida is also 3-0 and while it has not played a tough slate, the Gators have absolutely dominated as they lead the country in total defense and scoring defense. It is no fluke as the stop unit was expected to be the strength of the team. On the other side, we are aware that quarterback Luke Del Rio is out but Austin Appleby is not a dropoff at all. He is a graduate transfer from Purdue where he started for two seasons and while there was no success, it is Purdue we are talking about. He comes in with a ton of confidence to lead this offense. Obviously, revenge comes into play here as Tennessee has lost the last 11 meetings in this series but winning and covering are two different things. This is a toss-up that can go either way so we will grab the generous points. 10* (383) Florida Gators |
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09-24-16 | Syracuse +4.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on SYRACUSE for our Afternoon Dominator. It has been a rough start for Syracuse but the schedule has had a lot to do with that. The Orange got crushed by Louisville two weeks ago and last week they were beaten badly at home once again by USF. Despite the loss by 25 points, Syracuse played much better than that score shows as it outgained the Bulls by 95 yards, controlled more than 16 minutes of the clock and had 10 more first downs. The Orange struggled on third and fourth down and lost the turnover battle 3-0 while USF completed four scoring drives in less than two minutes apiece and scored another touchdown on a punt return. Connecticut had the exact opposite type of game as it defeated Virginia 13-10 last week despite being outgained 381-277. A Cavaliers interception late in the fourth quarter set Connecticut up for the game-winning field goal and Virginia actually had a chance to tie the game but missed a 20-yard field goal as time expired. Those results have inflated this line and any chalk for the Huskies is not good as they are 0-13-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite and under head coach Bob Diaco, they are 0-7 ATS against teams allowing 3 or more ppg. Additionally, we play on road teams where the line is that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 to 390 ypg. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (321) Syracuse Orange |
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09-23-16 | Wyoming -3 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -101 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
We played on Wyoming in Week One as it defeated Northern Illinois in overtime and while the victory may seem that good anymore considering the Huskies are now 0-3, the Cowboys are a solid team that can make some noise this season. Wyoming had a miserable season last year as it went just 2-10 but there is optimism this year as the Cowboys welcome back 17 starters. The offense struggled last season but was extremely young and there are nine returnees on that unit and we have seen a dramatic improvement so far. Eastern Michigan is 2-1 for the first time since 2011 but it is a very unimpressive 2-1. An opening win over Mississippi Valley St. was far from strong and a win at Charlotte last week was misleading as the Eagles won the yardage battle by just 11 total yards against one of the worst teams in the FBS. The points may look tempting considering Wyoming has struggled mightily away from home the last few years but looking at the road schedule the last three plus years shows an absolutely brutal slate as the lone non-conference loss to a non-power team was at Texas St. and the Bobcats went 6-6 that season. Because of so many starters back for the Cowboys there are a lot of memories from last year when Eastern Michigan went into Laramie and rolled over the Cowboys by 19 points. The Cowboys fall into an excellent situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after outrushing its opponent by 200 or more yards last game. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Eastern Michigan is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after a win by 17 or more points while going 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games after scoring 37 points or more last game. 10* (307) Wyoming Cowboys |
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09-23-16 | White Sox +149 v. Indians | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is the final road series for the White Sox where they have been pretty bad with a 31-47 record including losses in five straight games on the highway. Chicago is a great position tonight to break the streak and getting a solid price on top of it. The White Sox are 7-1 in their last eight games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. This is the final homestand for the Indians which have started it off 5-1 and could officially clinch the division this weekend. While they have been awesome at home all season, they are getting a little too much credit with this matchup. Trevor Bauer has had a pretty decent season but it has been going in the wrong directions. After a 3.30 ERA and 1.20 WHIP prior to the All Star Break, he has posted a 5.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in his last 13 starts since then. This includes a miserable 9.56 ERA in his last three starts. The White Sox counter with Miguel Gonzalez who has had a very good season and despite making 12 road starts, he does not have a win on the highway. That has been more bad luck than anything as he has a 3.39 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in those 12 games. He is in the best stretch of his season with 10 of his last 11 starts being quality outings while posting a 2.75 ERA in the process. 10* (971) Chicago White Sox |
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09-23-16 | Cardinals +191 v. Cubs | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
After a loss in Colorado Wednesday and wins by the Mets and Giants last night, the Cardinals are on the outside of the Wild Card standings looking in. They are a half-game out with 10 games remaining including this three-game set in Chicago, their last road series of the season. Every game matters at this point and St. Louis is worth a shot at this price. The Cubs have nothing to play for with the exception of not getting into any slumps before the postseason and getting to 100 wins for the first time since 1935. Jake Arrieta has come back down to earth in a big way. After posting a 1.75 ERA through his first 15 starts, he has put up a 4.33 ERA in his last 14 outings with only six of those resulting in a quality performance. While the Cubs are 11-3 in his 14 road starts, they are a mere 8-7 in his 15 games at Wrigley Field. St. Louis turns to Mike Leake who has had an average season but is pitching at his best right now with a 3.57 ERA over his last six starts, five of which have been quality outings. He has faced the Cubs three times this season and all have resulted in quality performances. The Cardinals are 4-0 in his last four road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (951) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-22-16 | Rockies +171 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The Dodgers avoided another loss to the Giants and left with a series win to increase their lead in the National League West to six games. The Rockies avoided a series sweep to the Cardinals as they won on Wednesday and despite being six games under .500, they have a +17 run differential, the only team in all of baseball to possess a losing record but are positive in scoring margin. Coors Field can be a nightmare for many pitchers and that is certainly the case for Tyler Chatwood. In 14 home starts, he has a 6.12 ERA and 1.64 WHIP but in 11 road starts, he has a 1.77 ERA and 1.14 WHIP so he clearly prefers the highway and this has been the case throughout his career. At Dodger Stadium, he is 3-2 with a 1.36 ERA in six starts all-time. Brett Anderson was called up and will make the start tonight but he cannot be trusted at this price. He has been on the disabled list with a blister on his left index finger and hasn't pitched since Aug. 20 when the Reds tagged him for six runs in three innings. That was only his second start, who has missed the majority of the season after undergoing surgery for a herniated disk in March. 10* (909) Colorado Rockies |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots +1.5 | Top | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
Two of the five undefeated teams in the AFC square off and we will be backing the home team missing its top two quarterbacks. We played on New England opening week at Arizona and mentioned a big reason for playing the Patriots was head coach Bill Belichick and that reason is even bigger in this one. Rookie Jacoby Brissett will be making his first ever start and while that normally would be a play against spot depending on the situation, Belichick is not going to be throwing him into the fire and make him win a game by himself. Brissett went 6-9 for 92 yards against Miami and while his experience is minimal, the preparation time for the Texans to go against him is even worse considering they have little to no game film on him. Houston has cruised in both of its wins but both of those took place at home, one again what seems to be another lousy Chicago team and the other against a Kansas City team it was seeking revenge from after a 30-0 defeat in the playoffs last season. The Houston defense has done its job, but again, that has all taken place at home and the offense has struggled by averaging only 347.5 ypg which is just No. 19 in the NFL. This marks only the fifth game since the start of the 2002 season that the Patriots are home underdogs and this is where New England will be even more motivated because of that. The Patriots fall into a situation where we play on home teams coming off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1983. 10* (302) New England Patriots |
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09-22-16 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +9.5 | Top | 26-7 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 2 m | Show |
Clemson is a big road favorite for obvious reasons despite the fact it has fallen from No. 2 to No. 5 in the AP Poll as the linesmakers know what the public likes and does not like. The Tigers were a few points away from the National Championship last season and came in with high expectations so while despite some early season struggles, the public still loves them. This is not a clear fade the public play however as the feeling is that not only is Clemson overvalued but Georgia Tech comes in very undervalued with a lot of that based on last season as well. The Yellow Jackets went 3-9 including a 1-7 record in the ACC and after a 2-0 start, they were unable to get anything going. Six of its nine losses were by one possession so the Yellow Jackets were closer to having a good season than the record shows. Georgia Tech returned its quarterback, top three running backs and top two receivers so after slipping in offense last season, a rebound was expected and we have seen just that. Georgia Tech is hoping the primetime setting Thursday will rekindle the sort of atmosphere that helped produce the only highlight a season ago when it defeated Florida St. Clemson surely cannot slip up here if it wants to continue its National Championship run but the sudden resurgence of Louisville has opened the Tigers eyes and with a home game against the Cardinals on deck, looking ahead to that game would not be surprising. Going back, the Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games while the Yellow Jackets are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. 10* (304) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
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09-21-16 | Seattle Storm -2 v. Atlanta Dream | Top | 85-94 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The WNBA playoffs begin tonight and it is win or go home for the four teams in action. We backed Seattle in the final regular season game and we will back the Storm again as they are a team that can pull some surprises in the postseason if they can get past this one-and-done scenario. After a slow start to the season overall, the young team has gelled by going 7-3 in the nine games since the Olympic break and the run has not lacked quality. The Storm defeated Los Angeles twice, Chicago and New York over this stretch so they bring in some solid momentum. Atlanta was a surprise in the Eastern Conference as not much was expected but it opened 8-3 to take control early but it could not keep the momentum going. The Dream finished just 9-14 including losses in three of their final four games. The Dream will be shorthanded tonight as guard and second leading scorer with 15 ppg Tiffany Hayes has been suspended for this game after incurring her seventh technical foul in the season finale against Minnesota. This is a huge hit for Atlanta as she is one of the better shooters on the team at 44.1 percent and the Dream come in as the worst shooting team of all playoff teams. On the other side, the Atlanta defense holds opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 47.0 percent which is the third lowest percentage in the league. That is not good considering the Storm have the second-best shooting percentage in the league at 51.4 percent. 10* (603) Seattle Storm |
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09-21-16 | Angels +176 v. Rangers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 176 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The Angels have dropped the first two games of this series and look to salvage something after those pair of one-run defeats. It has been a tough series overall for Los Angeles but it has been able to salvage things recently, going 7-2 in its last nine contests during Game Three of a series. Texas is getting close to clinching the American League West but are overpriced in this matchup tonight. The Rangers offense has been in a funk of late and has not been able to string many potent outputs together of late as the Rangers are 1-5 in their last six games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Derek Holland is a big reason why they are overpriced here as he is coming off a pair of bad performances as he has allowed nine runs in 9.2 innings combined. While he has been solid at home this season, it is hard to overlook the fact the Rangers are 1-4 in his last five starts against teams with a losing record. The Angels turn to Jered Weaver who is having a rough year overall but has shown some promise down the stretch as he has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts. Facing the Rangers can add to that as he has tossed seven straight quality starts against them, posting a 2.01 ERA in the process. 10* (975) Los Angeles Angels |
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09-21-16 | Royals +189 v. Indians | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Time is running out for Kansas City to defend its World Series title as it remains five games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League after the loss last night. The walkoff defeat snapped a three-game winning streak for the Royals which are in good shape tonight despite facing the Indians ace as they are 10-3 in their last 13 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game while the Indians are 7-16 in their last 23 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Corey Kluber is the Indians aforementioned ace but he has not been as dominant as in the past and the Royals have not been his favorite opponents as going back to last season, Cleveland is just 2-7 in his last seven starts against the royals while going 4-9 in his last 13 starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Ian Kennedy counters for the Royals and he has had a very solid season with a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 30 starts. He is coming off a pair of quality outings and he has allowed two runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. The Royals are 4-0 in his last four road starts, three of which have been at an underdog price. 10* (973) Kansas City Royals |
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09-20-16 | Giants +142 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-0 | Win | 142 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
The Giants slide continues as they dropped the opener of this series last night by allowing two runs in the ninth inning and wasting a gem from Madison Bumgarner. It is now three straight losses for the Giants which have now fallen into a tie with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Dodgers lead in the National League West is now six games but they are just 1-4 in their last five games following a loss. They also fall into a negative situation where we play against favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are hitting .240 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 0.800 or better over his last 3 starts. This situation is 39-24 (61.9 percent) since 1997. The pitcher in this case is Johnny Cueto who has been sensational all season and has been great on the road as well with San Francisco going 12-4 in his 16 road starts. Rich Hill did not allow an earned run in his first three starts with the Dodgers but allowed four runs in just 5.1 innings against Arizona last time out. 10* (913) San Francisco Giants |
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09-20-16 | Nationals +147 v. Marlins | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Game One of this series went to Miami last night in a 4-3 victory as the Marlins try to remain in the National League Wild Card race. The Nationals have dropped three straight games but are still in fine shape with an eight-game lead in the National League East over the Mets. We should have another pitchers duel tonight and Washington has flourished in these spots this season as it is 13-4 against the money line on the road when the total is seven or less this season. Tanner Roark gets the ball for the Nationals and he has been a very consistent starter with a 2.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 30 starts, 21 of which have been quality starts. The Nationals are 11-3 in his last 14 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Miami counters with Jose Fernandez and there used to be a time where the Marlins never lost at home when he started but that is no longer the case. They have won just four of his last seven home games after winning 30 of his first 34 home starts to start his career. The Marlins are just 2-5 in his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (903) Washington Nationals |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 42.5 | Top | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This line opened at -2.5, got pushed up to -3.5 midweek and has settled back down to -3 which is right where it should be in a game that can go either way. We are getting value with the total however after both teams went under the number is their season opening games. The glaring comparison is with Chicago in that this total is lower than last week against Houston, one of the top ranked defenses in the NFL. This is a matchup where both quarterbacks could have massive games. Carson Wentz threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut, completing 22 of 37 passes in a turnover-free performance, posting a 101.0 rating. Jay Cutler meanwhile was 16-29 for just 216 yards and a touchdown and one pick but as mentioned, he was facing a very strong defense and it takes a step down tonight. As a team, the Eagles held Cleveland to under 300 total yards of offense last week as they dominated the time of possession with nearly 40 minutes on their side. But Cleveland is Cleveland and yesterday the Browns managed 387 yards but 85 of those came on one play. Philadelphia will be without top cornerback Leodis McKelvin. On the other side, the Bears were pretty average against the Texans as Brock Osweiler completed 63 percent of his passes while allowing Lamar Miller to rush for over 100 yards. One of their biggest failings against Houston was the Bears failed to make Osweiler uncomfortable in the pocket and the Texans offensive line is much worse than the line of the Eagles so they will have trouble again. 10* Over (289) Philadelphia Eagles/(290) Chicago Bears |
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09-18-16 | Chicago Sky v. Seattle Storm -3 | Top | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
We played against Seattle on Thursday against Phoenix and was blown out by 24 points as it fell behind 16 points after a quarter and could never catch up. We are playing on the Storm tonight however in the final regular season game of the year as they look to gain back some momentum heading into the playoffs. They had won four straight prior to Thursday while covering their previous six games and after a slow start to the season overall, the young team has gelled by going 6-3 in the nine games since the Olympic break. Chicago has won three straight games but this game means nothing as it has locked up the No. 4 seed in the playoffs which comes with a first round bye. The Sky are not in the best of shape however as they have lost their star Elena Delle Donne for the rest of the season due to a thumb injury. Seattle will be out for some payback as well as it lost the first two meetings but both were close as the defeats were by just three and four points The Storm fall into a great situation where we play on home teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .401 and .499 that are coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 38-14 ATS (73.1 percent) since 1997. Additionally, the Storm are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. 10* (658) Seattle Storm |
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09-18-16 | Colts +6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Star Attraction. The Colts lost a shootout at home against the Lions, spoiling the return of Andrew Luck who ended up missing nine games last season. The loss had nothing to do with him however as he was awesome, throwing for 385 yards and four touchdowns with a 66 percent completion rate. His last game a year ago happened to come against Denver, a 27-24 win at home. The defense was obviously the issue as Matthew Stafford went off as well but the Colts should not have to worry as much this week about getting lit up. We won with the Broncos last Thursday and while they have a big scheduling advantage here because of time off and no travel, the Broncos are severely overpriced in this matchup. The defense is arguably the best in the NFL but the Indianapolis offense presents a bunch of challenges and it put up 365 yards in the meeting last season against virtually the same defense. This offense is good enough to play catch up against even the elite defenses as long as a healthy Luck is around. Additionally, he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL coming off a loss as he has gone 16-4 both straight up and against the number following a defeat. That is a very impressive record and as one of the biggest game preparers, it makes sense. The Colts are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game while the Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (281) Indianapolis Colts |
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09-18-16 | Seahawks v. Rams +7 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 54 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES RAMS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The first game since returning to Los Angeles was not a good one for the Rams as they got embarrassed by the 49ers 28-0. The offense was pathetic with just 185 total yards as Case Keenum was inconsistent at quarterback and Todd Gurley could get nothing going on the ground. Because of the horrible display, they are catching a huge number in their first home game in Los Angeles in 20 years. Teams are not as bad as they looked in their last game like we saw on Thursday with the Bills that showed some offensive life but it was their defense that let them down. The Rams actually have a solid defense and they will come to play on Sunday. Seattle escaped with a win over Miami as it scored the go ahead touchdown with just 31 seconds remaining and avoided a season opening loss for the second straight season. They also avoided a serious injury as Russell Wilson went down with an ankle injury that looked worse than it was but he is still not going to be playing at a 100 percent level this week. The Rams play the Seahawks tough the majority of the time as they have won four of the last eight meetings while two of the four losses were by a touchdown or less. They have won three of the last four at home with the lone defeat being by just five points and the home edge Sunday should be even that much better. The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (280) Los Angeles Rams |
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09-18-16 | Dolphins +6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI DOLPHINS for our NFL Game of the Week. The schedulemakers did Miami no favors by putting them on the road the first two weeks of the season at Seattle and at New England. They played excellent last week against the Seahawks and really should have won the game despite getting outgained by 138 total yards. Nonetheless, Miami catches a depleted New England roster so it can be argued they actually caught a break getting the Patriots this early in this spot. New England picked up the upset win at Arizona last Sunday night as head coach Bill Belichick put together a masterful plan and you give him extra time to formulate a gameplan and the other team is in for a long day. The Patriots return home for the first of three straight games at Gillette Stadium so they definitely caught a break with the schedule by having three of the four games that Tom Brady is missing taking place at home. New England has dominated this series at with four straight victories by double-digits but you know who was the quarterback for the Patriots in all four of those games. Jimmy Garoppolo had a very strong showing in his first NFL start but again, the gameplan and the fact that no one had even seen him in an NFL regular season game was a big advantage and now Miami has the luxury of watching game film. Here we play on underdogs or pickems that has a winning percentage between .250 and .400 last season, in conference games. This situation is 65-30 ATS (68.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (265) Miami Dolphins |
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09-18-16 | Ravens v. Browns +7 | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. You have to feel bad for RGIII after working hard to get back in the NFL as a starter and then go down with a broken shoulder bone and it out until at least Week Nine. Cleveland though is not in bad shape because of it as Josh McCown will take over. In eight starts last season, he put up a solid 93.3 passer rating until he broke his collarbone and that happened to come against the Ravens so he will certainly be motivated here for some payback. The Browns were competitive for a while last week as they trailed the Eagles by just five points late in the third quarter before Philadelphia closed with a pair of touchdowns. Now they head home and are catching more points than they did last week against a team that should not at all be considered better than the Eagles. Baltimore won an ugly 13-7 game over the Bills last Sunday as the Ravens limited Buffalo to just 160 total yards. While some of that can be attributed to the defense, the Buffalo offense is in shambles we witnessed Thursday so that is a deceptive yardage allowed total. This line makes zero sense at all. They were favored last week by three at home and now it is a 10-point line swing against a team that is on the same plane as Buffalo. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (268) Cleveland Browns |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13.5 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 50 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Going into this game, many would have thought the records of these two teams would be reversed but instead, Carolina enters Week Two 0-1 while San Francisco comes in with a 1-0 record. From a situational standpoint, it does not get much better with a Panthers team that has lost its last two games returning home where they went 10-0 last season and has won 13 in a row overall. Additionally, they are playing with added rest because of the Thursday game last week while the 49ers are playing on short rest following their game on Monday. Making it tough for San Francisco is the fact that this is an early game for a west coast team which is always a difficult spot. If this whole scenario sound familiar, it is because it is. Last season, San Francisco won its Monday night game in an upset over the Vikings and then travelled the next week to Pittsburgh which was coming off a Thursday night loss to the Patriots for an early start game. The Steelers rolled 43-18 and a similar outcome can be expected this Sunday. This situation has been profitable for years as we play against road underdogs or pickems coming off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 47-19 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. The 49ers are just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 Sunday games following a Monday night game while the Panthers are 14-1 ATS under head coach Ron Rivera coming off a road loss. 10* (276) Carolina Panthers |
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09-17-16 | Padres +175 v. Rockies | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
We lost a tough one last night with the Padres as Colorado scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to pull out the 8-7 victory. That win snapped two streaks, a three-game winning streak for the Padres and a three-game losing streak for the Rockies so we will again go with San Diego here in what is another bad number for the favorite. The Padres are 4-1 in their last five games following a loss while the Rockies are 0-6 in their last six games following a win and we have a solid underdog situation in play where we play against home National League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that are averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against a starter whose ERA is between 5.20 and 5.70, after scoring 8 runs or more. This situation is 38-22 (63.3 percent) since 1997. While Edwin Jackson possesses a 5.32 ERA, he has turned it around as he has tossed two straight quality outings while his ERA has dropped by close to a full run. He has allowed three runs or less in his last three starts against the Rockies. Colorado hands the ball to Jon Gray who started the season very impressively with a 3.77 ERA through his first 19 starts but fatigue has caught up as over his last seven outings, he has posted a 7.71 ERA and no starter with a run like that should be laying anything close to this number. 10* (961) San Diego Padres |
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09-17-16 | USC +9 v. Stanford | Top | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on USC for our Saturday Star Attraction. USC came into the season ranked in the AP Top 20 but quickly fell out after an embarrassing 52-6 loss to Alabama opening weekend. It was hard to gauge whether the Trojans were that bad or if Alabama is that good and we are leaning toward the latter after USC bounced back last week with a 38-point win over a very good Utah St. team. Despite the bombing against the Tide, the Trojans are still contenders in the Pac 12 South and the title run begins with a big one. Stanford opened its season with a win over Kansas St. and got a fortunate scheduling break prior to conference action as it had its bye weeks last week. However, that can go against the Cardinal here as playing more than one game heading into this one would have been beneficial especially given the fact they did not play that well against the Wildcats. They managed just 272 yards of offense while allowing 335 yards on the other side and USC has the talent on both sides to take advantage. The loss of four-year starting quarterback Kevin Hogan is huge for Stanford as running back Christian McCaffrey cannot do it all against a defense this good. USC lost both meetings to Stanford last season, once in the Pac 12 opener and the other in the Pac 12 Championship so revenge comes into play here despite this being played on the road. The Trojans fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) since 1992. 10* (203) USC Trojans |
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09-17-16 | New Mexico State v. Kentucky -20 | Top | 42-62 | Push | 0 | 51 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on KENTUCKY for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. We played against Kentucky last Saturday and it paid off nicely as Florida thumped the Wildcats 45-7 while winning the yardage battle by 415 yards. Kentucky has now been outscored 79-7 since taking an early 35-10 lead over Southern Mississippi so we must seem crazy backing them here but the situation could not be any better. Based on the size of the line, Kentucky should have no issues on Saturday and we agree as this is a game the Wildcats should be able to name the score while getting ready for their second SEC game next week against South Carolina. While Kentucky will be prime for a turnaround, New Mexico St. is still celebrating its win over rival New Mexico, snapping a four-game losing streak in the Rio Grande Rivalry. It needs to be noted however that the Aggies were outgained in the game where they were 11-point home underdogs and now are not that much bigger of an underdog on the road against a team from the SEC. They are 3-21 on the road since 2012 which includes a loss in their only road games this season at UTEP by 16 points and despite a poor start to the season, Kentucky is a lot better team than the Miners. New Mexico St. is 0-19 all-time against the SEC and while can be considering a meaning less stat, it does show how much lower in class this program has been for years. Kentucky is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 games when it rushes for 200 or more yards and should be no problem here while New Mexico St. is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games after a win by three or less points. 10* (160) Kentucky Wildcats |
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09-17-16 | Colorado +20 v. Michigan | Top | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 49 h 19 m | Show |
The public helps dictate lines and that is certainly the case here as Michigan has turned into a big pubic darling. Granted, the Wolverines have covered both of their games but they came against Hawaii, which was making a return trip from Australia and UCF, a very poor team from the AAC. Michigan is now ranked No. 5 in the country and actually received one first place vote so the lines have to adjusted because of that as well. This is no doubt an excellent team but they take a big step up in competition here. Colorado is taking a big step up as well as it has also played a weak schedule but this is its best start as far as wins and point differential through two games since 1998. The Buffaloes went just 4-9 last season but of those nine losses, five came by just one possession so they were very more competitive than the record shows. That is important because they have 18 starters back from that team and while many picked them to finish last in the Pac 12 South, they could very well be a sleeper team and pull some surprises. Beating bad teams is what good teams do, and that is exactly what the Buffaloes have done through two weeks. While an upset here is unlikely, Colorado has the athletes to keep it well within range of the overinflated spread. Here, we play on road teams that are allowing 200 or fewer total ypg over their last two games, with an experienced quarterback going up against an opponent with inexperienced quarterback. This situation is 44-16 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Michigan is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after scoring 37 points or more in two straight games. 10* (127) Colorado Buffaloes |
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09-17-16 | San Diego State v. Northern Illinois +11 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS for our NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year. We played against the Huskies opening week as they lost in overtime at Wyoming as a touchdown favorite. We nearly pulled the trigger on them last week at South Florida in a bounce back spot and it is a good thing we did not as they were beaten badly by 31 points. Now comes the ultimate bounce back spot as Northern Illinois is 0-2 and head back to DeKalb for its home opener and because of the early results, it is getting no respect. The Huskies have not been a double-digit home underdog since 1998 when it ended up going 2-9 on the season. The poor start is part of the reason for the line as is the fact San Diego St. has been unbeatable for a while now. After opening the season 1-3 last year, the Aztecs went on to win their final 10 games and have opened 2-0 this year with wins over New Hampshire and California. The 12-game winning streak is second only to Alabama which has won 14 straight games. The win over the Golden Bears was quite a bit deceiving however as San Diego St. was outgained by 141 total yards but benefitted from four California turnovers, returning one interception for a touchdown while also returning a kickoff 100 yards for another score. The Aztecs are just 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games while northern Illinois has covered six straight games coming off a game where it committed no turnovers. 10* (152) Northern Illinois Huskies |
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09-17-16 | Pittsburgh v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 49 h 8 m | Show |
Oklahoma St. got a horrible break last week after the referees, who were from the MAC by the way, gave Central Michigan an untimed down after an intentional grounding penalty and the Chippewas turned that into a game-winning Hail Mary. The Cowboys were ranked No. 17 heading into the game and fell out of the rankings for obvious reasons but the fact of the matter is that they never should have been in the situation of being able to lose on a Hail Mary even though Central Michigan is a very solid team. Nonetheless, that loss will have them seething and Pittsburgh is coming to Stillwater at the worst possible time. The Panthers struggled to put away Villanova in their season opener and were fortunate to hold off Penn St. last week. That was a big game as those teams do not like each other despite that game being the first meeting since 2000. The Panthers are expected to contend in the ACC Coastal Division but that is an extremely weak division so it is not really saying much. They open conference play next week at North Carolina so there could very well be some lookahead to that game. Pittsburgh has one of the best running backs in the country in James Connor and a solid offensive line but the quarterback situation is dicey and it will be optimal for the Cowboys to stack the box and force Pittsburgh to make big throws which seems unlikely it can do. We play against teams after closing out last season with two or more straight losses going up against an opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last three games. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (174) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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09-17-16 | Alabama -11 v. Ole Miss | Top | 48-43 | Loss | -103 | 49 h 5 m | Show |
This one is pretty straight forward and while it is a smaller public play, it is worth taking the side as Alabama has the ability to roll here. The Time crushed USC in their opener and then did a number on a good Western Kentucky team last week as they outgained the Hilltoppers by 236 total yards. Now they hit the highway for their first true road game of the season but this is not just any road game. Alabama has lost two regular season games the last two years and both of those came against Mississippi, both coming by six points. They will be out to avenge those losses in a tough environment nut remember Alabama is 19-2 in its last 21 road games so this team is not scared of any environment. The Rebels blew a big lead against Florida St. in their first game and had a pretty uneven effort against Wofford of the FCS last week and while that can be attributed to a lookahead to this one, they should have still had a better effort. Mississippi is no longer going to be sneaking up on anyone and that includes the linesmakers which have been behind the curveball the last few years. The Rebels have the best quarterback in the SEC with Chad Kelly, Alabama arguably has its best defense in years and has not forgotten that Kelly lit them up for 341 yards last season. Alabama falls into a simple yet very effective situation where we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that had a winning percentage of .800 or greater last season, after one or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (193) Alabama Crimson Tide |
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09-17-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Bowling Green +6.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on BOWLING GREEN for our Saturday Afternoon Dominator. After going 10-4 last season and winning the MAC Championship, Bowling Green has not gotten off to a great start. The Falcons were absolutely destroyed at Ohio St. in their opener while escaping with a one-point win over North Dakota last week thanks to a missed two-point conversion in the final seconds. However, these results are giving the Falcons enormous value and this is still a very talented team that is again expected to contend for the title in the MAC. The good news on offense is RB Fred Coppet, WR Ronnie Moore, and C Tim McAuliffe, who were injured against North Dakota, practiced Wednesday and are probable for the game Saturday. Middle Tennessee will be a big factor in C-USA this season but placing it in the role of a road favorite is pretty aggressive. After annihilating Alabama A&M in their opener, the Blue Raiders brought little to the table against Vanderbilt, allowing 47 points to the Commodores, the most points they have scored since putting up the same amount against Austin Peay of the FCS last season. That lack of defense will be big for the Falcons to get their offense rolling. This line opened at -3.5 and has shot up three points, further adding to the value. Here we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were an excellent passing team from last season with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better, in non-conference games. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Bowling Green is 15-1 in its last 16 games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse. 10* (132) Bowling Green Falcons |
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09-16-16 | Arizona State v. Texas-San Antonio +20 | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 13 m | Show |
Arizona St. has looked solid out of the gates with two big wins to open the season. The Sun Devils defeated Northern Arizona by 31 points opening weekend then took out Texas Tech last week by 13 points which was highlighted by an incredible eight-touchdown performance from Kalen Ballage. Digging a little deeper however shows that the wins were not as impressive as the scores show as Arizona St. won the yardage battle by just 31 and 40 yards respectively. While offensively the Sun Devils are a potent unit, the defense has been very unimpressive as they have allowed an average of 518.5 ypg which is No. 119 in the country and that will always leave the backdoor open. UTSA defeated Alabama St. in its opener and while it was only by 13 points, the Roadrunners won the yardage battle by 162 yards. They played well last week against Colorado St., losing by just 11 points and being outgained by only 93 yards and that was on the road. They went just 3-9 last season but a big reason for that was experience as they had just five total starters returning and that number jumps to 13 this season. While listed as questionable, UTSA running back Jarveon Williams is expected to play and that is big coming off a 1,000-yard rushing season a year ago. Going back, the Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (108) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners |
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09-16-16 | Padres +157 v. Rockies | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The Padres enter the weekend fresh off a three-game sweep at San Francisco so they enter Colorado on a huge momentum run. The pitching has been solid going back further as San Diego has allowed four runs or less in seven straight games, yielding an average of just 2.3 rpg over that stretch. The Rockies week got off to the opposite start as they were swept in Arizona with the pitching getting lit up for at least 11 runs in all three games. The Rockies negative momentum has plagued them in the past as they are 5-15 after two straight losses by four runs or more over the last two seasons. Additionally, we play against National League home teams that are allowing 5.3 or more rpg on the season, after allowing eight runs or more. This situation is 57-26 (68.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Christian Friedrich is coming off one of his best starts of the season as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Rockies which halted a five-game Padres skid in his starts. He has allowed no earned runs in two starts over 13 innings against the Rockies this season. Colorado turns to Tyler Chatwood who is also coming off a solid outing but he has not tossed back-to-back quality starts since June and over his last 11 starts, he possesses a 5.20 ERA. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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09-16-16 | Tigers +154 v. Indians | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
A series split at home against Minnesota was not how Detroit envisioned ending its homestand so the Tigers remain two games out of the Wild Card standings heading into a big series in Cleveland. The Indians have had their number this season with wins in 11 of the 12 meetings but Detroit did win the last one with the starting pitcher for tonight. The Tigers have won eight of their last 11 road games. Cleveland lost three of four in Chicago and returns home with a six-game lead over Detroit so the Indians could basically seal up the division with a big weekend. It will not be easy though and the Indians are 6-15 in their last 21 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Corey Kluber gets the ball for Cleveland and he has been great as usual which is the reason is as big as it is. The one big negative has been his lack of success against division opponents as Cleveland is just 10-15 in his last 25 starts against American League Central teams. Detroit counters with Michael Fulmer who came out of nowhere this season with a 2.76 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 23 starts. He had one bad start here in May but redeemed himself with a quality outing in July. Going back, the Tigers are 11-1 in his last 12 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (919) Detroit Tigers |
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09-16-16 | Dallas Wings v. Connecticut Sun -4 | Top | 74-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
All eight playoff positions are locked up and both Dallas and Connecticut are on the outside looking in. This is the fourth straight season that the Sun have failed to make the postseason which is the longest streak in franchise history but they have not thrown in the towel quite yet. "We don't like having to play these games without a playoff picture in mind, but there is still a lot to build on and get some momentum heading into the offseason," head coach Curt Miller said. Connecticut opened the season 2-10 and was doomed from the start but its 10-10 record since then has been pretty solid. Dallas has won two straight games but this came after an 11-game losing streak so its problems have been more recent. Since opening 4-4 on the road, the Wings have gone just 1-6 on the highway with the lone win coming at 7-25 San Antonio, the worst team in the league. This is the final home game of the season for the Sun so they will want to go out strong on their home floor and they have a solid situation on their side to do so. We play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after two or more consecutive wins with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 on the season. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being 11.2 ppg. Connecticut is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against losing teams and 13-4 ATS this season against the Western Conference while Dallas is 4-12 ATS this season against the Eastern Conference. 10* (652) Connecticut Sun |
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09-15-16 | Seattle Storm v. Phoenix Mercury -6 | Top | 62-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
The WNBA season is winding down and there is only one playoff spot remaining and which teams gets it should be decided tonight. It has come down to Washington or Phoenix to claim the eighth and final spot and it is pretty simple for the Mercury, win and they are in. they can also clinch with a Washington loss earlier in the night but that should have no effect on how the Mercury go about this game as they need to finish the season strong going into the playoffs as there is no need to rest starters at this point. They have dropped four of their last five games but all of those came on the road and Phoenix has won all three games at home since the Olympic break. Seattle is peaking at the right time as it has won four straight games to secure a playoff spot while covering six straight games. This makes it a perfect spot to go against the Storm and even more so with the Mercury arguably playing one of their biggest games of the season. They will be out to avoid the three-game season sweep after losing the first two meetings on top of it. Going back, Seattle is 7-22 in its last 29 road games coming off a conference win as an underdog and Phoenix has a great situation on its side. We play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a losing record on the season after three or more consecutive wins. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (604) Phoenix Mercury |
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09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills +1 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
Week One saw a lot of offense in the NFL but Buffalo was not in that group, not even close. the Bills managed only 160 total yards and seven points against the Ravens and while many are saying this is a must win game for the Jets, the same can be said about the other side. Buffalo can ill afford to drop to 0-2 with Arizona and New England on deck. The Jets lost a tough one on Sunday as they dropped their game against Cincinnati by a point. Unfortunately, it came down to a missed extra point and now New York hits the road to the same place where its season ended last year in a 22-17 loss to the Bills. The Jets will be out for revenge but playing road revenge is not a good recommendation. For Buffalo, quarterback Tyrod Taylor was ok last week but did not make any big plays what he is certainly capable of. Last season, Taylor threw for 3,035 yards, 20 touchdowns and six interceptions. In fact, his 99.4 QBR was ranked seventh in the NFL. Additionally, the he rushed for 568 yards, scoring four touchdowns on the ground. His two starts last season against the Jets were solid and while his numbers were not over the top, he managed both games well. On the other side, the Buffalo secondary is the strength and the Bills held the Jets to under 200 passing yards in both matchups last season. Buffalo won its final four games at home last season and the crown will be a big factor for their first game that happens to be in primetime. We are getting great value here as this game opened with the Bills being a three-point favorite and now they are an underdog in some spots. 10* (102) Buffalo Bills |
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09-15-16 | Houston v. Cincinnati +7.5 | Top | 40-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
Following its upset against Oklahoma in Week One, Houston is a legitimate playoff contender as there is not a whole lot standing in its way. The Cougars have a test here on the road and then not another one until a home game against Louisville in Week 12. And this one will be a test. The Cougars are big road favorites because of what already happened and the public is riding them yet again. Cincinnati is also off to a 2-0 start following a solid road win at Purdue last week and it has had this game circled for some time now. Last season, the Bearcats lost at Houston despite outgaining the Cougars 589-427 and they will be out for some payback as they feel they are getting no respect based on the Houston hype and the pointspread assigned to this one. The Bearcats have two solid situations on their side. First, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points they were a good passing team from last season with a completion percentage of .580 or better, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight wins and also had a winning record. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Houston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing six points or fewer while Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. 10* (104) Cincinnati Bearcats |
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09-15-16 | Twins +140 v. Tigers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 140 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Detroit survived last night with a 9-6 win after coming back from a 5-2 deficit but today presents a challenge with the pitching matchup. Minnesota has scored 14 runs over its last two games after plating just one more than that in its previous five games combined. The Tigers are 0-3 in their last three games following a win while Minnesota is 3-1 in its last four games following a loss. Today marks the return of Mike Pelfrey who has been on the disabled list since early August with a back injury and he should not be this size of a favorite. He has a 4.76 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the season and that includes a 5.83 ERA at home where he has posted only one quality outing in 10 starts. He is going to be limited to 60 pitches today but the Tigers bullpen is not in good shape as it possesses a 4.12 ERA on the season which is nothing special and over the last five games, only one starter has made it past five innings so it is a tired bunch. The Twins counter with Hector Santiago who has finally regained his form since coming over from the Angels. He has thrown three straight quality outings, posting a 1.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in the process and this seems to be his best time to shine as he has won his last seven September starts while Detroit is hitting just .242 against lefties at home. 10* (959) Minnesota Twins |
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09-14-16 | Rockies +135 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Arizona has broken out the offense in this series, scoring 12 and 11 runs in the first two games following a six-game losing streak where it managed just 17 runs combined (2.8 rpg). The last two games can be considered an aberration as the offense is not this good. Colorado has not lost more than two in a row since late August and is 5-2 following a loss since then. The Rockies are still five games better on the road than Arizona is at home and we take advantage of the price tonight. Jeff Hoffman is winless in four starts but it has not been that bad. His first three starts came against Chicago, Washington and Los Angeles, all division leaders and while the last one came against the Padres, he did not allow an earned run. The Diamondbacks counter with Rubby De La Rosa who went just two innings in his first start in nearly four months so he cannot be counted on to go far here and the bullpen behind him has an ERA of 5.16 which is deal last in baseball. 10* (913) Colorado Rockies |
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09-14-16 | Orioles +140 v. Red Sox | Top | 1-0 | Win | 140 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
We won with the Orioles last night and we will back them again tonight in the ultimate contrarian situation. They and the Red Sox are separated by only two games yet this price is telling us otherwise as it is being driven by the starting pitching. Admittedly, Baltimore has not been great on the road this season and while Boston has thrived at Fenway Park this season, the Red Sox are just 3-7 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record. The biggest pitching surprise of the season has been Rick Porcello who became the first 20-game winner in baseball in his last start. He is an amazing 13-0 at home with Boston winning all 14 of his starts but his 3.03 ERA is not at all dominating. The Orioles are a problem as in four starts against them since coming to Boston, he has an 8.87 ERA. Kevin Gausman counters for the Orioles and he has been spectacular of late, posting a 1.08 ERA over his last four starts and he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. 10* (917) Baltimore Orioles |
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09-13-16 | Phoenix Mercury v. LA Sparks -2.5 | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Los Angeles has hot a rough patch as it has gone 3-8 since the Olympic break after starting the season with a 21-3 record. The Sparks have dropped three straight games including a loss at Seattle on Sunday by 18 points but part of that was related to the fact that they elected to rest starters Nneka Ogwumike and Kristi Toliver. Los Angeles has locked up the No. 2 seed in the upcoming playoffs so while this game may seem meaningless, it is far from that as the Sparks need to get out of this funk before the postseason starts. With just one regular season game left, now is the time. Phoenix is still fighting for a playoff berth and a win tonight would clinch that. But this is not a must win however as the Mercury need to win just one of their three remaining games or have Washington lose one of its three remaining games and that could happen tonight at New York before this game even tips off. That could possibly lead to some of the Phoenix starters resting should they clinch and while we are not banking on that, if it happens, it only adds to the value of this play. Los Angeles falls into a great situation as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a same season loss and coming off a road loss against a conference rival. This situation is 112-65 ATS (63.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (660) Los Angeles Sparks |
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09-13-16 | Orioles +145 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-3 | Win | 145 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Boston increased its lead over Baltimore to three games and held its lead over Toronto to two games in the American League East with its easy victory last night. Boston scored five times in the first inning and never looked back, outhitting the Orioles 16-2, but tonight should not be nearly as easy. Price was masterful and tonight the Red Sox turn to Drew Pomeranz who has pitched pretty well but has been very unfortunate. After getting 11 runs in his Red Sox debut, he has gotten an average of just 2.4 rpg in his last nine starts and going back, they are 1-5 in his last six starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Dylan Bundy gets the ball for the Orioles and he has been pretty solid the majority of the time. He allowed five runs against Tampa Bay last time out which was the fourth times he has allowed four runs or more and the previous three times he has followed up with a solid outing, allowing two runs in 16.2 innings combined. The Orioles are 5-2 in his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (967) Baltimore Orioles |
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09-13-16 | Dodgers v. Yankees +127 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 127 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Following a series loss in Miami, the Dodgers took Game One last night in Yankee Stadium and increased their lead to four games in the National League West over the Giants. New York has dropped two straight following a seven-game winning streak but still remain in the playoff hunt. C.C. Sabathia takes the hill for the Yankees and while he is not having a great season, it has not been horrible either. He has allowed three runs or less in 18 of his 26 starts including his last four so he is pitching very well down the stretch. The Dodgers are hitting just .213 against lefties on the season including .184 over their last 10 games. Los Angeles counters with Julio Urias who is also on a solid streak where he has allowed two runs or less in five straight games but he has not pitched in 11 days because of an injury to fingers on his pitching hand. He has had his issues on the road this season where he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over six starts with just two of those being quality outings and those came against the Brewers and Reds who possess two of the five worst records in the National League. 10* (980) New York Yankees |
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09-12-16 | Steelers v. Redskins +2.5 | Top | 38-16 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
As we saw on Sunday, a large number of heavy public favorites failed to cover the number and overall, the chalk is 4-10 through the first 14 games. Lines are based on some of the numbers of last season as well as expectations for this season and we are seeing a strong case of that here. Even though Washington won the division last year, it is not getting a ton of respect and has actually been picked to finish last in the NFC East (prior to Romo injury) in a few places which really makes no sense. The Redskins bowed out of the playoffs last season in the Wildcard Round following a 4-0 finish to the regular season and they are only better this year. Pittsburgh is once again picked to win the AFC North and this is no doubt a talented team being favored on the road is a tad overaggressive. The Steelers were favored on the road only twice all of last regular season and those games were Week 16 and Week 17 against Baltimore and Cleveland which were meaningless games for the opposition. Pittsburgh finished No. 30 in the NFL last season against the pass and will have a tough time defending DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and tight end Jordan Reed. Additionally, the Steelers are banged up on the defensive line so getting any sort of pressure on Kirk Cousins may not happen which will put the secondary in more troubling situations. This line has been bet down to under a field goal in some places but with the public once again hammering the road favorite, we are fine with it and it likely will back up prior to gametime. 10* (480) Washington Redskins |
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09-11-16 | Patriots +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the PATRIOTS for our Sunday Night Primetime. The Patriots come into the season with a lot of hype but so much in the beginning of the season. With Tom Brady out the first four games, Jimmy Garoppolo and he should be all set to manage this game properly. The reason behind that is head coach Bill Belichick who loves playing the underdog card and it would not be surprising at all to see Brady come back to a 4-0 record. This line is telling us that the Patriots are pretty serious underdogs but player for player, there is not much of a difference between these two teams with the exception of the quarterback obviously. Arizona had a season a year ago but I do not expect a repeat of that. The Cardinals were fortunate that Seattle got off to a slow start but even with that, you have to give them credit for running the table. If this game were played at this time last year, Arizona may be a three-point favorite at best and there will not be any sneaking up on teams this season and you have to think there has to be some sort of regression. Carolina helped the rest of the league out by showing how to shut Carson Palmer and the rest of the offense down in the playoffs and we can guarantee Belichick has watched that tape a few times. The Patriots strength is the back end of the defense and that is where Palmer carved up a lot of teams last season. Belichick always puts a premium on preventing big plays, and his defense created 10 turnovers during the preseason. Despite going 6-2 at home last season, the Cardinals went just 1-6 ATS over their last seven home games. 10* (477) New England Patriots |
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09-11-16 | Atlanta Dream v. Phoenix Mercury -6.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is not the season that Phoenix envisioned. One of the most talented teams for a few years now, the Mercury were expected to contend in the Western Conference with the return of Diana Taurasi but instead, they got off to a 0-4 start and have yet to recover. While the playoffs are still in sight, nothing is guaranteed as Phoenix is sitting in the eighth spot by just one game over Washington and there is little room for error at this point. This is because of a three-game losing streak to end their roadtrip and put the Mercury at 4-11 on the highway for the season. Atlanta meanwhile has had the opposite kind of season as many predicted that it would end up in the basement in the Eastern Conference. Instead, the Dream got off to a 6-1 start and while they could not keep up with New York, they are sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference. The road has been a tough place despite an upset victory at Los Angeles on Friday as Atlanta had dropped eight of its previous nine roadies before that. That victory over the Sparks puts them in a great play against spot and it does not hurt that Phoenix went to Atlanta just last week and lost by four points as a 3.5-point favorite. That brings in revenge as well as some solid line value as this number is only three points different despite the venue change. This is a must win game for the home team and it is one that the Mercury should win in blowout fashion. 10* (610) Phoenix Mercury |
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09-11-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 69 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHARGERS for our NFL Sunday Game of the Week. The Chargers last won the division back in 2009 and have made the playoffs only one time since then but there is a possibility that changes this season as they are a sleeper by many. Last year, they had their fewest wins since 2003 so they are being counted out already however San Diego was killed by injuries last season and was done because of that. Now healthy, the Chargers could make a run in the division as farfetched as that may sound. The biggest issue was the offensive line but is back to full strength and will give Philip Rivers time in the pocket and open some holes for Melvin Gordon. The Chiefs were not strong enough last season to catch Denver but they certainly turned some heads after winning their final 10 regular season games following a 1-5 start. They blanked the Texans in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs but lost to the Patriot the following week. The biggest concern for Kansas City is its defense as three key players are banged up including Justin Houston who will be out at least seven weeks. Offensively, their offensive line was a concern and while they tried to make improvements in the offseason, the jury is still out if that will be the case. Stopping the run will be big for the Chargers and they have added depth. Kansas City has won four straight meetings in this series but this is a clean slate and almost the opposite of when they met last season as the Chargers are the healthy team, sans Joey Bosa who would have been a nonfactor anyway, and the Chiefs are the banged up squad. Despite all of the struggles and injuries last season, San Diego covered its last six road games, three of those where it was getting a touchdown or more and the Chargers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when getting seven or more points. 10* (463) San Diego Chargers |
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09-11-16 | Bears +6 v. Texans | Top | 14-23 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the BEARS for our Sunday Enforcer. The Bears are another team people have already written off but they have a chance to be a surprise in the NFC. While Chicago lost Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett, it had one of the best drafts in the NFL while also having the best free agency in the NFC. Injuries played a big factor in the struggles last season as only four players started all 16 games so the unfortunate luck there should turn around. Additionally, the Bears will have Kevin White, who missed all of last season, paired up with Alshon Jeffry to give Jay Cutler two solid weapons outside. The Bears defense was awful last year but John Fox is in his second season and should have the defense in a better spot thanks to some great offseason pickups. The big injury new for Houston is J.J. Watt who is banged up but plans to play Sunday. The real injury news though is on the offensive line where two starters are out and that could prove to be a big problem for newly acquired players Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller. Houston made a nice run last season after a 2-5 start as it closed by going 7-2 and was able to back in to a division win because of the Colts injury issues. The Texans went 4-0 in the preseason which means nothing and going back, teams that went undefeated in the preseason and are home favorites in Week One are just 4-11-1 ATS the last 15. Conversely, the Bears went 0-3 in their first three preseason games when starters saw action and that is being taken into account way too much and adding value. Despite going 6-10 last season, the Bears went 5-3 on the road and covered six of their last seven. Houston is the biggest public consensus for Sunday and we will go against that here. 10* (467) Chicago Bears |
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09-11-16 | Packers v. Jaguars +5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 69 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the JAGUARS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. You have to love going against the hype early in the season as that is what lines are made from, hype and expectations. This is most certainly the case with Green Bay which struggled to find any consistency but now are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. Even though we can expect a highly motivated Packers team, high expectations can create pressure and the pressure is certainly on. While Green Bay used to have no one to give them much resistance, the Vikings are a team on the rise even without Teddy Bridgewater so winning the division is far from a guarantee. Green Bay does in fact have the talent to make a run but coming out of the gates as a big road favorite against an up and coming team is very aggressive. Jacksonville had arguably the best offseason of any team in the league and it came on the needed side. The Jaguars had one of the worst defenses in the league last season but on signing day, they picked up defensive lineman Malik Jackson, safety Tashaun Gipson and cornerback Prince Amukamara. Additionally, they got linebacker Miles Jack and cornerback Jalen Ramsey via the draft not to mention the top pick last year, defensive end Dante Fowler who missed the season after tearing his ACL on the first day on mini-camp. Offensively, Jacksonville has the chance to be a very explosive group and it will be up to the offensive line to keep things together. Quarterback Bortles was ranked seventh with 4,428 passing yards and second with 35 touchdowns last season. There is a reason Jacksonville has covered 12 of its last 17 season openers and that is because the expectations are always low in the eyes of the public and the oddsmakers have to adjust. In this case, it was an overadjustment. 10* (470) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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09-10-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +150 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The Giants got away with a subpar effort from Madison Bumgarner last night as they won in extra innings but backing it up with another victory will be tough. San Francisco is 3-15 in its last 18 games following a win going back to the All Star Break. Arizona has dropped four straight games but the run production at home remains solid as it has averaged 6.8 rpg over its last 12 games at Chase Field and we should be in store for more tonight. Johnny Cueto was nearly untouchable to start the season but he has been all over the place since late June. After posting a 2.06 ERA through June 21, he has put up a 4.06 ERA over his last 13 starts and while some have still been good, only six of those have been quality outings. Arizona turns to Archie Bradley who has been pretty inconsistent himself but is coming off a pair of quality starts to build on. After an awful start to the season, he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his last 15 starts. 10* (912) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-10-16 | Arkansas State +19.5 v. Auburn | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on ARKANSAS ST. for our NCAAF Game of the Week. Both Arkansas St. and Auburn are coming off losses last week and while Auburn comes from the far superior conference, it is laying way too many points here. The Tigers lost at home against Clemson by just six points so that may be considered a moral victory but they were outgained 399-262 so the game was not as close as the final score indicated. Clemson is arguably the best team in the country so this is a big step down in class for Auburn but this is a horrible spot. Coming off that disappointing loss and with Texas A&M and LSU on deck, the Tigers will have a tough time getting up for this one. The offense is not powerful enough to cover a number this big especially facing a defense that could be the best in the Sun Belt Conference. That was not the case last week however as Arkansas St. got pummeled at home 31-10 to Toledo while getting outgained by 290 total yards. The biggest surprise of that defeat was that Arkansas St. was actually favored by four points and that was just the fifth loss at home since 2011, going 26-5 over this stretch and while the road has been not nearly as good, the Red Wolves are catching Auburn at the right time. They play at Utah St. next week so there is no lookahead and the Red Wolves are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Meanwhile Auburn has covered just two of its last 12 home games. 10* (345) Arkansas St. Red Wolves |
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09-10-16 | Phillies +262 v. Nationals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Washington has dominated this series but the price tonight is too good to pass up. The Nationals have won 10 of the last 11 meetings but four of the last five wins have come by just one run and the lone Phillies victory came just two days ago. Philadelphia has held its own this season especially on the road where it does have a losing record but is +8.6 units in profit, the third best road margin in all of baseball. Max Scherzer gets the ball for Washington and he is having a typical season where he has dominated most of the time and the Nationals have won his last five starts. However, they are just 7-5 in his 12 home starts which equates to -3.4 units lost. Jerad Eickhoff counters for the Phillies and he has been very solid this season, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 28 starts, 16 of which have been quality outings. He has faced Washington twice, each resulting in a quality performance and that is all we can ask for again at this price. 10* (903) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-10-16 | Georgia Southern -13.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 56 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on GEORGIA SOUTHERN for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. While there were plenty of upsets last week in college football, the biggest under the radar one was arguably South Alabama defeating Mississippi St. on the road as close to a four-touchdown favorite. The Jaguars rallied from a 20-7 deficit in the fourth quarter as they scored a touchdown with 57 seconds remaining and dodged a bullet when Mississippi St. junior Westin Graves missed a 28-yard field-goal attempt by hitting the left upright with six seconds remaining. This team has been pretty solid since entering the FBS but South Alabama will have a tough time this week. Georgia Southern has been even better since entering the FBS as it has gone 19-7 following its 54-0 romp over Savannah St. last week. The Eagles, which were the fourth best rushing team in the nation last year, started right where they left off as they rushed for 420 yards on 6.1 ypc and that should continue. South Alabama had one of the worst rushing defenses last season, giving up 221 ypg on 5.4 ypc and it allowed 239 yards on the ground last week. In the meeting last season, the Jaguars jumped out to a 7-0 lead but Georgia Southern closed the game out 55-10 and outgained South Alabama 489-74 on the ground. While the disparity may not be that big this time around, it should not be narrowed by too much which gives the Eagles a dominance at the line of scrimmage which leads to an easy cover. The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game while the Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win. 10* (375) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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09-10-16 | South Carolina v. Mississippi State -6.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 34 m | Show |
As stated in a different analysis, Mississippi St. losing to South Alabama was probably the biggest of all of the upsets last week based on the pure talent disparity. While the Bulldogs lost a lot from last year, namely quarterback Dak Prescott, there is no excuse for a SEC from the SEC losing to a team from the Sun Belt Conference that has never had a winning season at the FBS level. While the rushing offense and rushing defense dominated at the line of scrimmage the line of scrimmage, the passing numbers were the difference but we will not have to worry about that in this matchup. South Carolina won a snoozer against Vanderbilt last Thursday 13-10 on a 55-yard field goal with just 35 seconds remaining. The Gamecocks allowed only 242 total yards but that came against one of the worst offenses in the country from a season ago. They will be tested more here both on the ground and through the air where Bulldogs quarterback Damian Williams was very sharp, going 20-28 although it resulted in just 143 yards. One thing is for sure, the Bulldogs are not going to take South Carolina for granted and we can give that credit to head coach Dan Mullin as they are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile the Gamecocks have covered just twice in their last eight games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi St. will be the hungrier team and even though these teams have not met since 2013, coach Mullin will have them know that Mississippi St. has dropped seven straight in this series, last win coming in 1999. 10* (364) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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09-10-16 | Akron +24 v. Wisconsin | Top | 10-54 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on AKRON for our Saturday Enforcer. We often talk about letdowns and this is the perfect example of one as Wisconsin took down No. 5 LSU last week 16-14 at Lambeau Field so recovering from that should be next to impossible. Sure, the talent gap is pretty wide between these two teams but focus can go a long way and a spread like this only adds to that. After the win over the Tigers, the celebration was huge with Badger players doing the Lambeau Leap and like fans charging the floor in college hoops, it is a great go against spot. Akron had no issues with VMI last week and while things will not be nearly as easy, the linesmakers have done the work for us as the line difference between last week and this week is 53 points. Akron was looking another losing season straight in the face last year but rallied to win its final four games of the season to become bowl eligible and then went on to defeat Utah St. to claim it first ever bowl win. So the Zips have now won six straight games and while we are not calling for the outright win here, it is too many points to pass up with the situation at hand. Momentum goes a long way and the Akron program has plenty of that right so it can inspire a lot of confidence. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game while the Zips are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. 10* (329) Akron Zips |
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09-10-16 | Kentucky v. Florida -16 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 52 h 5 m | Show |
We love to bet on good teams coming off subpar efforts because it carries with it excellent line value next time out. In this case, it is Florida which is coming off a pretty poor effort against a pretty bad and inexperienced Massachusetts team. The Gators won 24-7 so they clearly did not show up to play on both sides. The defense did its part by allowing just 187 total yards but the offense could must just 363 yards against a defense that allowed 448 ypg last season and brought back just five starters. There may have been a lookahead to this game and while it is just lowly Kentucky, the Gators surely have not forgotten the meeting from last season when they escaped in Lexington by a score of just 14-9. Overall, the Florida offense was pretty poor last season but was expected to much better this season with a lot of experience back and we should see the breakout here. Kentucky was defeated by Southern Mississippi as it was outscored 34-0 after blowing a 35-10 lead and those losses are sometimes the worst to bounce back from. The Wildcats were supposed to turn things around under head coach Mark Swoops but they have done anything but that as they have not had a winning season under him in three years and in his victories, the best win came against South Carolina in 2014 which went on to finish 7-6. The talent gap is too big here and this is where Kentucky has really struggles as the Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games. 10* (352) Florida Gators |
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09-10-16 | Ohio +3 v. Kansas | Top | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 51 h 55 m | Show |
Kansas snapped a 15-game losing streak with a resounding 55-6 win over Rhode Island and it seemed like the Jayhawks had just won the Big XII Championship after watching the fans storm the field. It must have not known that Rhode Island was a 1-11 team from last season. Good for Kansas to snap that losing streak but now it looks to go 2-0 for the first time since 2011. As a matter of fact, that was the last time the Jayhawks have won consecutive games, going 0-8 in their last eight games following a victory. Wins over FBS teams has been rare as well as since 2011, Kansas is 10-51, half of those victories coming against teams from the FCS. The Bobcats lost a tough one in their opener as they fell to Texas St. in triple overtime. They led late but Texas St. sent the game into overtime with a field goal and eventually Ohio lost the game on a failed two-point conversion. The Bobcats are coming off a solid 8-5 season and they are expected to once again contend in the MAC East. Last year could have been a lot better but they were derailed with injuries and that actually helps them this year with the experience of a lot more players than they normally would have had. All of this makes the loss to Texas St. that much more baffling especially considering they were favored by 17 points. This game has seen a big line move as Ohio came in as the favorite but the line has shifted up to five points depending on what book. 10* (311) Ohio Bobcats |
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09-10-16 | Rice +9 v. Army | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on RICE for our Saturday Afternoon Dominator. Army treated us well last Friday night as it went into Temple and won outright 28-13 as a two touchdown underdog. While it was a play on Army, it was more of a play against Temple which was completely overvalued after its spectacular season a year ago. The outright victory from the Black Knights was not expected but it certainly helps us this week with line value and for situational purposes. An adage brought up a lot is that teams are not as good as they looked in their last game and teams are not as bad as they looked in their last game so while that applies to Army, it also applies to Rice. The Owls got destroyed at Western Kentucky last week by a score of 46-14 but the Hilltoppers are expected to contend once again in C-USA. After three straight winning seasons and three straight bowl appearances, which was a first for the program, the Owls slipped to 5-7 last season after a 4-3 start. There should be plenty of motivation to get back to a bowl game and with 16 returning starters, third most in C-USA, Rice has the ability to succeed. Last week may not have shown that loss put them in a spot knowing it needs to bounce back, especially with a game against Baylor next Friday. This teams is a lot like the 2013 team that brought back 17 starters and won 10 games, something that had not happened since 2008. Army is a putrid 0-14 since 2011 following a victory and now it is laying double-digits against a team desperate for a win. No thanks. 10* (309) Rice Owls |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse OVER 69.5 | Top | 62-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 38 m | Show |
This total looks to be on the high side considering the meeting last year had the closing over/under at 50.5 but it has jumped up for a reason. After a second straight losing season, head coach Scott Shafer was let go at Syracuse and the school brought in Dino Babers from Bowling Green which looks to be a great hire to make some changes for the good. First and foremost, he brings in a fast paced offense, something that Syracuse has not implemented in quite some time. It was on display last week against Colgate as the Orange racked up 554 total yards and they should have put up more than 33 points but struggled a bit on third down. Granted, it was only Colgate but it was a very positive sign compared to last season when they managed only 426 yards in their opener against Rhode Island, a team that went 1-11 at the FCS level. They will be facing a tougher defense here for sure but moving the ball will not be an issue, especially at home where the Louisville defense will not have the crowd behind them. The Cardinals decimated Charlotte last Thursday 70-14 as they racked up 663 total yards and while they will not be matching those numbers this week, the offense will not be slowed down much. The Syracuse defense is at a disadvantage from a talent perspective, which does not help its case and side of the ball is expected to struggle all season. Both offenses play at a high pace with mobile quarterbacks so we should see some offensive fireworks come Friday night. 10* Over (303) Louisville Cardinals/(304) Syracuse Orange |
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09-09-16 | Dodgers v. Marlins +123 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 123 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
We get a rare opportunity to back Jose Fernandez as a home underdog which has rarely been the case throughout his career. He is at it against this season, going 10-2 with a 1.91 ERA at Marlins Park and in his career, he is 27-2 with a 1.57 ERA in 40 starts. This could one of his last starts of the season as he will likely be shut down once the Marlins are out of playoff contention. He has dominated the dodgers throughout his career as he is 3-0 with a 2.88 ERA in four career starts, all Miami wins. Going against Clayton Kershaw usually is not wise but tonight is an exception to the rule. He has been out since late June with a herniated disc in his back but will be coming back slowly prior to playoff time. He will be on a limited pitch count tonight so reaching five innings could be his max. the Marlins are 13-6 in their last 19 home games against left-handed starters. 10* (956) Miami Marlins |
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09-09-16 | Rays +131 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Blake Snell looks to cool down the red hot Yankees and he has the tools to do so. He has a 3.39 ERA through 15 starts and the impressive part is that he has allowed two runs or less in 12 of those outings. This includes a pair of starts against New York where he has allowed a combined three runs in 10.1 innings. Not good news for the Yankees as they are hitting just .131 against lefties over their last 10 games. New York turns to Michael Pineda and he has been all over the place. He has a 5.10 ERA through 27 starts with just 11 of those being quality outings. Most of those came early in the season as since July, he has allowed five runs or more five times while allowing two runs or less just four times. Tampa Bay has been a nemesis as this season he has faced the Rays three times and has been lit up all three times, posting an 11.05 ERA and 2.05 WHIP in only 14.2 combined innings. 10* (965) Tampa Bay Rays |
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09-08-16 | Atlanta Dream v. LA Sparks -8 | Top | 86-81 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
This game has blowout written all over it. The Sparks are coming off a disappointing home loss against Minnesota on Tuesday to move a game behind the Lynx in the Western Conference. Los Angeles is just 3-3 coming out of the Olympic break after losing just three games through its first 24 games. The good news for the Sparks is that the rest of the schedule sets up well as three of the last four games are at home where they have lost just twice, both against Minnesota. When they defeated Indiana on September 4, that was the first home game in seven weeks based on a scheduling quirk so they should be getting back used to the comforts of the Staples Center. Atlanta improved to 15-14 with a win over Phoenix on Tuesday and it is currently tied with Chicago for the fourth playoff seed but nothing is safe as the Dream are just three games away from missing the playoffs altogether. They are just 5-9 on the road and are currently riding a four-game losing streak on the highway. During that recent long roadtrip, the Sparks lost by 17 points in Atlanta which was by far their worst loss of the season as their other five losses have been by just 27 points combined so revenge is a big factor tonight. 10* (602) Los Angeles Sparks |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 108 | 53 h 45 m | Show |
Going back a few years, we had seen the past Super Bowl champions win their season openers including Pittsburgh in 2009, New Orleans in 2010 and Green Bay in 2011. That changed in 2012 when the Giants lost at home against Dallas and continued three years ago when Baltimore had to go on the road to Denver because of a conflict with the Orioles and got thumped. Two years ago, Seattle easily defeated Green Bay and last year, New England ended up pushing with the Steelers. This being said, Super bowl losers have been horrendous against the number in their first game the following season, going 3-16 ATS over the last 19 games. What Carolina did during the regular season and even in the NFC Playoffs was pretty remarkable but it was done against a fairly easy schedule. The Panthers did beat Seattle on the road but that took a 28-yard touchdown pass in the final minute and they did not defeat any other team on the road that eventually made the playoffs. The Broncos lost their two quarterbacks from last season but it should not be much of a dropoff. Managing the game is the key and Trevor Siemian has the ability to do that. The Denver defense was No. 1 in total defense and No. 4 in scoring defense and it could be even better this season. As far as the line goes, the public has moved this number four points with Carolina now a field goal favorite on the road meaning it would be a double-digit favorite at home and that makes zero sense. Denver should be extremely motivated here to come out strong in defense of its Super Bowl win as well as not accepting the fact it is an underdog here at home. 10* (452) Denver Broncos |
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09-08-16 | Reds +141 v. Pirates | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Pittsburgh snapped an eight-game losing streak with its win over the Cardinals last night but it may now be too little, too late for the Pirates. They are now a game under .500 and sitting 4.5 games out of the final National League Wild Card spot. The worst part about the losing skid was that the final five games were at home where Pittsburgh has been dominating for years but is just at .500 this season. The Reds are on a four-game slide following a sweep at the hands of the Mets to start the week. The offense has managed only eight runs during the skid but something says they break out here as Cincinnati has given Dan Straily a lot of run support this season. Straily has been the most consistent starter on the team this season as he has had only a handful of poor outings. Three of those came at the end of June and since then, he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his last 12 starts including two runs or less in nine of his last 10 outings. He has a 2.59 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates while the Reds are 7-0 in his last seven starts with four days of rest. Additionally, the Reds are 9-1 in his last 10 starts. The Pirates turn to Ivan Nova who has been very solid since coming over from the Yankees as he has yet to lose while posting a 2.89 ERA in the process. Even though the Reds offense has been struggling of late, they are hitting .271 against righties over their last five games and this is the second time they have seen Nova which is a big edge. 10* (903) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-07-16 | Red Sox v. Padres +207 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
We are going with the big home underdog here as the Padres are catching a huge number as they look for the series upset win. San Diego took the opener Monday before dropping Game Two last night and it is 7-2 in its last nine home games following a loss that took place at home in its previous game. While the offense has been pretty average all season, the Padres are hitting .252 on the season against left-handed pitching. Boston pulled into a tie with the slumping Blue Jays atop the American League East despite a very average run since late August as they are 6-7 over their last 13 games. Additionally, the Red Sox are 3-10 in their last 13 during Game Three of a series. The reason for the big line is that David Price is on the hill for Boston and he has been hot, winning five straight starts while posting a 2.06 ERA in the process. He has faced only one playoff contender over that stretch however and while San Diego does not fit into that category, we have to look at the whole road experience where Boston is just 8-7 in his 15 starts on the highway. San Diego counters with Jarred Cosart who is coming off a dreadful start last time out against Atlanta. The positive is that he has pitched five innings or less while allowing five or more runs on two other occasions and he bounced back by allowing just one run over 11 innings. 10* (980) San Diego Padres |
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09-07-16 | Cubs v. Brewers +150 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 150 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The Brewers won for us last night and we will back them again here in another good value spot. As mentioned yesterday, the home/road splits are deceiving despite the difference in records. Now nine games over .500 on the road, one would think that is profitable but Chicago is -5.0 in road units despite the positive record. Conversely, Milwaukee is two games over .500 at home for the season and that equates to a positive net gain of +4.8 units. This is a huge difference as the Brewers are 18 games under .500 on the road. Mark Garza gets the ball for Milwaukee and he has been pitching particularly well of late. He had one bad start in Seattle but since late July is his six other starts, he has posted a 2.34 ERA which shows how the consistency has turned around considerably. The Brewers are 5-1 in his six home starts this season where he has put up a 2.80 ERA. Chicago turns to Mike Montgomery and he is basically a filler when he goes into the rotation. He made three starts when John Lackey was out and even though he is back, the Cubs are giving the rest of the rotation an extra day. Since coming over from Seattle, he has a 4.72 ERA and going back, the Brewers are 13-3 in their last 16 home games against left-handed starters. 10* (960) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-06-16 | Diamondbacks +165 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
It was not a good return to Dodger Stadium for Zack Greinke who lasted just 4.2 innings while getting charged with eight runs including five home runs. That was his first start there since leaving Los Angeles and Arizona hopes for better results tonight. The Diamondbacks have been a better road team than home team all year long and they are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. The Dodgers have now won three straight games and are four games clear of the Giants in the National League West. It has been a huge turnaround from prior to the All Star Break but they are now being asked to lay another big price. Ross Stripling started the season strong but then ran into a few hurdles before being sent to the bullpen. He came back into the rotation in August and made five starts but posted a below average 4.18 ERA with the Dodgers going 1-4 in those games. Additionally, the Dodgers are 0-5 in his last five starts against teams with a losing record. Arizona counters with Shelby Miller who is having a disastrous season after putting up spectacular numbers last season. He was sent to the Minors in July but was recently recalled and posted a quality outing at the Giants and can build on that. A trip to the Minors could be just what he needed to finish the season strong. 10* (913) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-06-16 | Cubs v. Brewers +165 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 165 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
The Cubs continues their torrid pace with a victory last night in this series opener to move 41 games over .500 on the season. Being 10 games over .500 on the road is solid but it definitely looks to be overpriced in this spot and that is backed up by the fact that Chicago is -3.4 in road units despite the positive record. The Brewers had their four-game winning streak snapped with the win last night but they are still over .500 at home for the season and that equates to a positive net gain. Jason Hammel gets the ball for Chicago and while he is having a solid season overall, he has struggled on the road. In 13 home starts, he has a 1.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP but in 13 road starts, he has a 4.65 ERA and 1.29 WHIP so the splits are pretty significant. He has been the least effective road starter and going back, the Cubs are 1-6 in his last seven road starts. Milwaukee turns to Wily Peralta who has been inconsistent this season but he has come on of late. After rejoining the rotation in August, he has a 3.00 ERA in five starts and that drops to 2.25 in four home outings. The Brewers are 21-8 in his last 29 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (910) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-06-16 | Phoenix Mercury v. Atlanta Dream +3.5 | Top | 87-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
After winning three straight games coming out of the Olympic break, Phoenix has dropped its last two games to fall to 4-10 on the road this season. The Mercury are clearly the biggest disappointments in the WNBA this season as they are three games under .500 overall and are far from assured of a playoff spot. The Mercury are 1-5 ATS in their last six games playing on two days of rest. Atlanta is coming off a loss two days ago against Seattle at home and that was considered a bad loss and it happened to snap a five-game home winning streak. The Dream are now a game behind Chicago and overall, they are sitting in fifth place in the current playoff standings so in order to try and grab home court advantage, winning on the home floor is imperative where they are 9-5 overall. Phoenix has covered five of its last six games at home while covering four of its last five following a loss. The Mercury have been overvalued all season, going 7-13 ATS as favorites including a 2-5 ATS mark as road chalk. One of those victories did come here and that happened to be the last Atlanta loss prior to that recent winning streak so there is revenge in play tonight. Phoenix is actually favored by a bigger amount tonight than the last meeting so we can take advantage of some value there. 10* (602) Atlanta Dream |
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09-05-16 | Ole Miss v. Florida State -6 | Top | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
We have seen No. 3 and No. 5 go down already this weekend so Florida St. is on upset alert but the Seminoles should have no issues tonight. The Seminoles have been looking forward to this one since last season when they were beaten pretty soundly by Houston 38-24. Mississippi comes in as the No. 11 team in the nation and this is no longer a program that is going to sneak up on any team, especially one that will br vying for a National Championship. There is talk about how good the Rebels rushing defense is going to be and while that may be the case, the Seminoles are in fine shape with Dalvin Cook. Last season, Cook, who averaged 7.38 ypc, played six of the top 30 defenses in yards per carry: No. 1 Boston College, No. 6 Houston, No. 8 Louisville, No. 17 Florida, No. 20 Clemson and No. 29 South Florida. Florida St. has a great situation on its side as we play against teams in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (212) Florida St. Seminoles |
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09-03-16 | Northern Illinois v. Wyoming +10 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 58 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on WYOMING for our SATURDAY ENFORCER. Last year was considered a down season for Northern Illinois as it won just eight games, the first time since 2009 it failed to win at least 11 games. The Huskies will once again contend for the MAC Championship but it will not be easy with the conference getting better as a whole. They did not end well last year with a 20-point loss to Bowling Green in the MAC Championship and then getting blown out 55-7 to Boise St. in the Poinsettia Bowl. This can certainly have them hungry heading into the season but there are still plenty of doubts, namely on the defense. Northern Illinois allowed 418 ypg which was the most since 2007 and while they return six starters, two big losses are in the front seven with two First Team All-MAC players gone. Wyoming had a miserable season last year as it went just 2-10 but there is optimism this year as the Cowboys welcome back 17 starters. The offense struggled last season but was extremely young and there are nine returnees on that unit. Junior running back Brian Hill was a major contributor for the Cowboys offense last season. He finished with 1,631 rushing yards (135.9 ypg, 5.8 ypc) and was a Doak Walker Finalist. While they averaged just 19 ppg, they will be better and have a chance to come out strong against a weak Huskies defense. Laramie is not an easy place for teams coming from the east to play based on the altitude and this team could be gassed late in the game. Wyoming falls into a solid situation where we play on Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were a good passing team from last season with a completion rate of 58 percent or better, in non-conference games. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (208) Wyoming Cowboys |
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09-03-16 | Clemson -7 v. Auburn | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on CLEMSON for our SATURDAY STAR ATTRACTION. This is the perfect game for Clemson to start with this season as a quality road win is just what it needs. The Tigers have some unfinished business to take care of after running the table with a 14-0 record but ultimately losing to Alabama in the BCS Championship. They are certainly going to out on a mission and with games on deck against Troy and South Carolina St., there will be no looking ahead here despite knowing the struggles of Auburn as this is a tough environment no matter what. The Clemson offense finished No. 11 overall and should be even better this season with eight starters back and numerous returnees on the two-deep chart. The defense will be the concern with only four starters back but it was still very solid last season despite bringing back only three starters. Additionally, a ton of players that did not start last year got quality playing time. Auburn went just 6-6 last season but was able to pull out a bowl win over Memphis to give it some positive momentum heading into this season. The offense had its worst year since 2012 as the Tigers averaged just 370 ypg which was down by 115 ypg from the previous year. The offense has thrived in the past with mobile quarterbacks but once again, they will not have that luxury as Sean White, more of a true drop back passer, won the starting job. That is not an ideal scheme against an aggressive Clemson defense that will be keying on stopping the run and blitzing from all angles. While this is the perfect opener for Clemson as mentioned, it is the worst possible opener for Auburn facing one of the best offenses in the nation while sorting out its defense with another new defensive coordinator. 10* (183) Clemson Tigers |
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09-03-16 | Fresno State v. Nebraska -28 | Top | 10-43 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on NEBRASKA for our SATURDAY SUPREME ANNIHILATOR. The first year under head coach Mike Riley was not a huge disappointment despite the 5-7 record. The Huskers were the most unfortunate team in the country as they had five last second losses including a loss on Hail Mary against BYU in their season opener which pretty much set the tone for the rest of the season. Despite a 5-7 record, they were invited to a bowl game because there were not enough qualified teams and they gladly accepted it. Nebraska defeated UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl which was a big win to carry forward into this year. While winning the Big Ten may be a stretch, the Huskers will be contending for the West Division even though their three biggest obstacles are taking place on the road. Nebraska has 13 starters back led by an offense that returns starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong as well as its leading rusher and top six receivers. Fresno St. really struggled last season as it had five straight FBS losses to open the season and was never able to recover as it went just 3-9 after three straight winning seasons. The Bulldogs should take a step forward this season but it will likely be just a small step. The Bulldogs averaged a mere 178.3 passing ypg last season and will start a redshirt freshman, Chason Virgil, at quarterback. Overall, Fresno St. ranked No. 100 or higher in seven of nine major national statistical categories on offense and defense last season. On defense, it is definitely a rebuilding effort with only five returning starters and a new defensive coordinator. This is not a good sign for a team that finished No. 118 in the nation in scoring defense and No. 116 in rushing defense. The Bulldogs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games while Nebraska is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. 10* (200) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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09-03-16 | Boise State v. UL-Lafayette +20 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on UL-LAFAYETTE for our GAME OF THE WEEK. After four straight 9-4 seasons for Louisiana, 2015 was a lot different. Last season was a major disappointment as the Cajuns failed to possess a winning record for the first time under head coach Mark Hudspeth so there should be a big rebound in Lafayette. The offense, despite having to replace its starting quarterback, should be better with All American candidate Elijah McGuire at running back. Taking over at quarterback is Anthony Jennings, a graduate transfer from LSU who started 12 games for the Tigers in 2014 so he has some big game experience. Overall, 14 starters are back and Louisiana is expected to regain its form to contend in the Sun Belt Conference. The Cajuns will be tested right out of the gate and because of the struggles last season, they are getting a huge number here at home. Boise St. went just 9-4 last year which was a disappointment mostly because it was unable to win the MWC. The Broncos are expected to have a better season although they do come in unranked. Offensively, they bring back the main cogs and will be explosive but the defense is a huge concern. The Broncos are set at linebacker, but have little experience on the defensive line and in the defensive backfield. It will be up to the defensive veterans to lead the defense as it grows and finds itself. Overall, they only have five starters back on that side of the ball. The Cajuns have cherished the role of underdog, going 18-9 ATS under Hudspeth including a perfect 2-0 as home underdogs, both resulting in outright winners. This was originally scheduled for a 7:00 PM local time start but was moved up to the afternoon and that is a huge edge for the home team with the forecast calling for a hot and humid day, something the Broncos are not accustomed to. 10* (204) UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns |
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09-03-16 | Georgia Tech -3 v. Boston College | Top | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 42 h 32 m | Show |
Football starts early on Saturday as Boston College and Georgia Tech square off in Ireland in what can be considered a must win for both teams. They are both coming off dreadful seasons a year ago which was more surprising for Georgia Tech than it was for Boston College. The Yellow Jackets went 3-9 including a 1-7 record in the ACC and after a 2-0 start, they were unable to get anything going. The Eagles finished with an identical 3-9 record but went winless in the conference as their offense was dreadful. Two of their wins came against teams from the FCS while the other was a three-point win at home against Northern Illinois. We need to figure out which team, if any, can bounce back this season and the answer to that is Georgia Tech. Last year was the worst season at the school for head coach Paul Johnson and he will no doubt have his team focused for this opening game. He has always been a strong starter and going back, the Yellow Jackets are 24-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season including an 18-9 ATS record under Johnson and he has only lost twice in the first game of the season against an FBS team. Georgia Tech gets its quarterback, top three running backs and top two receivers back so after slipping in offense last season, it should be ready for a big rebound. Six of its nine losses were by one possession so the Yellow Jackets were closer to having a good season than the record shows. The Eagles lost some close games as well only because the defense kept things close but they will have a tough time with this option offense. Look for the Yellow Jackets to pull away in this one. 10* (153) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
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09-02-16 | Army +16.5 v. Temple | Top | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
Temple was one of if not the biggest surprises of college football last season, winning 10 games after winning just eight in the first two seasons under head coach Matt Rhule. The Owls nearly upset Notre Dame along the way as well so they will be coming into this season as significantly overrated and we are seeing it already in Game One of the season. This is the first time since 2008 that Temple is favored in a season opener against a team from the FBS and it is a pretty big number to say the least. Army disappointed last season with a 2-10 record but it was the best double-digit loss team in the country if there is such a thing. The Black Knights were outgained by an average of just 38 ypg and outscored by only 5.7 ppg which shows how competitive they really were. Army lost seven games by a touchdown or less including four by four points or less and while they were not against any elite teams, we definitely cannot put Temple into that category despite their solid record last season because it played a fairly easy schedule as well. Army has 16 starters back so it can build on what was accomplished last season even though it did not show up in the win column. One of those is quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw who left the team a couple weeks ago only to change his mind the next day and return to West Point. Conversely, Temple has just 12 starters back after returning 19 starters a season ago so bringing back experience can go a long way for sure. The road has been unkind to the Black Knights since 2011 with just one victory but that win came last season while this is the most experienced team over this timeframe. 10* (147) Army Black Knights |
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09-01-16 | Seahawks v. Raiders -1.5 | Top | 23-21 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
Oakland will be out to end the preseason on a positive at home after suffering a loss last week against Tennessee at home and closing with a victory against Seattle would be big. The Raiders and Seahawks matchup has become a traditional end to the preseason for both teams and the Raiders will be out to avenge a loss in Seattle last season. The Seahawks closed out their home schedule with a win over Dallas last week and are catching the Raiders at a bad time. Seahawks rookie running back C.J. Prosise made his preseason debut last week after missing the first two games with a hamstring injury, but saw limited playing time both because he was working his way back after a long layoff, and also because Christine Michael saw much of the playing time with the starters playing into the third quarter. This week, however, Prosise will play quite a bit Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said which means a vanilla attack is on the way. Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio hasn't revealed the quarterback rotation for Oakland's preseason finale but Matt McGloin is expected to start while Connor Cook, a fourth-round draft pick this year, is expected to come off the bench late in the first half and play the remainder of the game. The two quarterbacks understand the significance of what playing well could mean in the big picture. Here, we play against road teams, slow starting offensive team that has averaged seven or fewer ppg in the first half. This situation is 64-32 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1993. 10* (132) Oakland Raiders |
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