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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-14 | Phoenix Suns v. New Orleans Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The Suns have won their last six games, which is a season high and five of those have come on the highway but I expect that streak to come to an end tonight. Winning five straight road games is certainly impressive but the level of competition has been a step below average with the exception of a win at Washington last week. Phoenix is coming off a win over the Lakers Sunday which made it six straight covers as well but it has a revenge game on deck tomorrow night at Oklahoma City where it lost by 24 points 16 days ago. New Orleans is playing some decent basketball and can get back over .500 with a victory tonight. One of the issues with the Pelicans this season has been their consistency as their longest winning streak is just two games but on the other hand, their longest losing streak is just three games which has happened only once. They are coming off a loss at Chicago and on the season, they are 10-4 following a loss while covering nine of those games. The Suns swept the Pelicans 4-0 last season so there will be some payback in mind as well and while New Orleans has San Antonio on deck for tomorrow, that is actually a revenge game for the Spurs. Additionally, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two or more consecutive overs and averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (510) New Orleans Pelicans |
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12-30-14 | Louisville +7 v. Georgia | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
Georgia's season did not end like it wanted as it fell to Georgia Tech in its season finale in overtime which basically took the Bulldogs out of a big time bowl and landed them in the Belk Bowl in Charlotte. That loss was devastating and doesn't bode well for a team that is heading to a minor bowl games as pre-New Years Day bowl favorites of six or more points are just 10-24-3 ATS following a straight up loss as a favorite and the once again underachieving Bulldogs are once again ripe for an outright loss. Louisville meanwhile is coming off a win over Kentucky to end the regular season on a three game winning streak to move to 9-3 overall. That is big as the Cardinals are going after three straight seasons of double-digit victories for the first time in the history of the program and apparently, that has been a big motivator for coaches and players heading into this bowl game. Motivation plays a big part in bowl success, or lack thereof, and here we have two teams on complete opposite sides of the spectrum and we are catching a big number as well. The Cardinals possess the third best rushing defense in the country and they are one of a very few amount of teams that can slow down the Georgia run game. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home against winning teams while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a spread loss. 10* (245) Louisville Cardinals |
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12-30-14 | Notre Dame +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
Coming into the season with high expectations, Notre Dame started off great with a 6-0 record before a controversial loss against Florida St. was a dagger it could not remove as the Fighting Irish finished on a 1-5 run including losses in their last four games. Many people like to fade teams in bowl games coming in with significant losing streaks but I think this time it provides a great deal of motivation not to mention great line value. Notre Dame was an underdog of a touchdown or more just once and it covered at Florida St. and of its five losses, three were by four points or less. LSU isn't coming in with any great momentum either as it lost two of its final three games and went just 4-3 in its final seven games of the season and 5-4 over its last nine. The Tigers again possess one of the best defenses in the country but Notre Dame has an offense that can compete with that stop unit, as long as they do not turn the ball over. On the other side, the Fighting Irish defense got gashed during the second half of the season but LSU has been extremely inconsistent on offense and head coach Les Miles does not plan on altering much in this game. Of the eight wins for the Tigers, four came by six points or less including three of the last four and LSU is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games away from home following a win. 10* (243) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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12-30-14 | Illinois v. Michigan -2 | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
It has been a tough season for Michigan as it is off to a mediocre 7-5 start but I expect the Wolverines to be more than ready in their Big Ten opener this afternoon. A loss against New Jersey Institute of Technology set the stage for a two-week plunge where they followed up that loss with another embarrassing home loss against Eastern Michigan. Michigan then ran into heavyweights Arizona and SMU but it was able to snap its four-game skid with a win over Coppin St. eight days ago. That was far from a marquee win but was needed to stop the bleeding and now riding a 0-7 ATS streak, the Wolverines are full of value today. Illinois hits the highway for just its second true road game of the season where it lost the first one by nine points at Miami. While the Illini destroyed that same Coppin St. team, looking at stronger common opponents may tell a different story. Michigan went toe-to-toe with undefeated Villanova, losing in the final seconds while the Wolverines also beat Oregon, 70-63. Illinois fell to Villanova and Oregon by a combined 21 points after falling apart late in both games. With Jim Harbaugh in attendance today, the place will be in a frenzy so a hyped, celebratory atmosphere may be just what head coach John Beilein's team needs to shoot itself out of its month-long funk. 10* (528) Michigan Wolverines |
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12-29-14 | Texas +7 v. Arkansas | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
An old rivalry is reborn tonight when Texas and Arkansas get reacquainted from the days of the Southwest Conference. It has been an up and down season for both of these teams and with identical 6-6 records, this seems to be a pretty even matchup but that is not what the linesmakers are telling us. After losing four of its first six, Texas found its stride, winning three straight and gaining a berth into the postseason although it is coming off a blowout loss against TCU to close the regular season. Internally, it was tough at times for the Longhorns with many player suspensions and dismissals but head coach Charlie Strong did things the right way and yesterday he announced that all of his players are eligible to play tonight. Prior to back-to-back shutouts over LSU and Mississippi, Arkansas had dropped 17 straight SEC games so it is hard to back up the Razorbacks as suddenly having figured things out. Most surprisingly, they were outgained by the Rebels despite a 30-0 win and followed those two wins by losing to Missouri and getting outgained by 135 yards. Texas falls into a fantastic situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 21 and 28 ppg going up against teams averaging between 28 and 34 ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 50-16 ATS (75.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (241) Texas Longhorns |
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12-29-14 | North Texas v. Texas Tech -11 | Top | 45-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
We played on Texas Tech in its last game but it was blown out against Houston, its second straight double-digit loss in as many nights. I will come right back with the Red Raiders tonight though as they are back home where they are 9-0 and desperately need the win before conference action starts on Saturday against Texas. The defense played its worst game against the Cougars as they allowed 54 percent shooting with the real surge coming early as they spotted Houston a 22-7 lead and could not recover. Texas Tech now faces North Texas which is not a very good shooting team and is coming off a loss against Prairie View at home in its last game last Tuesday. It was the fifth loss of the season for the Mean Green and while it was only by three points, the other four losses were all by double-digits including all three on the road where they have lost by an average of 17.6 ppg. The Mean Green are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams outrebounding opponents by seven or more rpg. Additionally, they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a loss while Texas Tech is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 home games after a game with nine or less assists. 10* (722) Texas Tech Red Raiders |
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12-29-14 | Sacramento Kings v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 204.5 | Top | 99-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
We are catching another great totals situation tonight as we have two teams on recent runs that we will go against based on the contrarian factor along with over/under value. Sacramento hits the road to open a four-game east coast roadtrip starting in Brooklyn tonight and the Kings are riding a five-game over streak. However, the last game went into overtime while the majority of those games came against some of the faster paced teams in the NBA. Now they will face one of the slower teams in the league as the Nets are averaging 96.8 possessions per game, the eighth fewest. Brooklyn meanwhile has gone over in two straight games, one of those against the Celtics which are tied for the most possessions in the league and the other against Indiana which was able to shoot over 51 percent from the floor. The under is 9-1 in the Nets last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and I certainly expect a better defensive effort after allowing 86 and 87 shots the last two games. We also have a great league wide totals situation in play as we play the under involving one team after two or more consecutive overs going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive overs. This situation is 60-25 (70.6 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (707) Sacramento Kings/(708) Brooklyn Nets |
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12-29-14 | West Virginia v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
This line has come down from opening due to the official word that West Virginia quarterback Clint Trickett is out due to concussions which has ultimately forced him to quit football. Skyler Howard played in only three games for West Virginia, taking over for Trickett against Kansas State and starting the regular-season finale versus Iowa State. On the other side, Aggies freshman quarterback Kyle Allen, hit 61.3 percent of his passes for 764 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions in four games since supplanting sophomore Kenny Hill as the starter. One big factor here is that the Texas A&M defense will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after the school fired defensive coordinator Mark Snyder following the loss to LSU in the regular season finale. Interim defensive coordinator Mark Hagen, also the linebackers coach, will be calling plays. One reason the defense was so bad was because that it was on the field the third more in the nation so having over a monthly off is huge. Motivation is on the side of the Aggies as head coach Kevin Sumlin has been preaching to his players that they can become the first team in program history to win four straight bowl games. West Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven after a bye week while the Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (238) Texas A&M Aggies |
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12-28-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets OVER 210 | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
While injuries are marring to majority of the Sunday NBA card, there are no recent injury issues in this game and we are making a play similar to the one last night in Chicago. Toronto is coming off a win last night in Los Angeles against the Clippers in a game that stayed under the total albeit by not much. Prior to that, the Raptors had gone over the total in three straight games and while we are dealing with a high number tonight, it is lower than last night against a team that is much faster paces. The Clippers average 161.9 shot attempts per game while the Nuggets are averaging 171.3 shot attempts per game and those 10 extra shots are huge especially with a lower total. Denver has gone under in five straight games because the offense has sputtered the majority of the time but we could very well see a big effort tonight against a Raptors team that is playing with no rest and has gone 5-2 to the over in previous seven games playing with no rest. Additionally, Toronto is 10-3 to the over on the road this season and 15-4 to the over in its last 19 games against teams allowing 103 or more ppg. 10* Over (807) Toronto Raptors/(808) Denver Nuggets |
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +4.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 104 h 37 m | Show |
Atlanta is a popular pick this week playing at home and coming off an upset of New Orleans last week. The division is on the line Sunday as the winner will be crowned the champ despite possessing a losing record. There is not a whole lot that separates these two teams and based on that, we are getting value with this line which should be no more than three because of the divisional home field advantage. The Falcons home field advatnage has not been that great to begin with as they are 3-3 at home including losses in three of their last four. Carolina has won three straight games and it is playing its best football of the season as it has outgained each of its last five opponents, the last four coming by at least 100 total yards. Atlanta is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games after a win by 14 or more points and 0-6 ATS I its last six home games after gaining 375 or more yards in two straight games. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game while going 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (315) Carolina Panthers *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR |
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12-28-14 | Wake Forest v. Richmond -6.5 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Richmond comes in riding a four-game winning streak but failed to cover the three lined games and going back, it has not covered a game since November 30, going 0-5 ATS over that stretch. Additionally, the Spiders are 0-3 ATS at home despite a perfect 5-0 record but today is the lowest they have been favored by on their home floor. There will be plenty of motivation as well as Richmond will be out to settle a score from last year's 10-point loss in overtime against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are coming off a win last time out against Bucknell and prior to that, they are coming off a cover against Florida, albeit by just one point. Since beating Tulane on the road, Wake Forest has lost its last three games away from home by 30, 13 and 13 points and while those teams were from power conferences, Richmond is no pushover. The Spiders have five starters back from last season and are expected to contend in the tough Atlantic Ten. Wake Forest is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog between 6.5 and 9 points and will be the perfect opponent for the Spiders to get back to a win at the betting window. 10* (824) Richmond Spiders |
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12-28-14 | Chicago Bears +6.5 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 100 h 12 m | Show |
We won with Chicago last Sunday and we will back the Bears again this week taking a line that is completely inflated. One main reason for taking Chicago last week was the fact that Jay Cutler was benched and his teammates rallied around Jimmy Clausen. Now with Cutler back in the lineup, I expect the Bears to rally around him this week. Chicago has lost four straight games including the last three all coming at home and playing on the road is actually a good thing to end the season. The Vikings are coming off two straight brutal losses on the road, both of which were two-point setbacks and those will be tough to recover from. Minnesota has cashed five straight games at the betting window which is a big reason for this inflated price. It doesn't matter who they are playing but the Vikings have no business laying a touchdown and the last time they were favored by this many points, it was Week Three of last season. Here we play against home favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 off a road loss, playing a bad team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 41-12 ATS (77.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (317) Chicago Bears *NFL GAME OF THE YEAR |
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12-28-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 100 h 11 m | Show |
The Saints had a very disappointing season as they were tabbed a favorite to at least be in contention in the NFC. Instead, they will miss the playoffs for the second time in three years and getting up a game against Tampa Bay will be near impossible. Yet, New Orleans is favored which it should be based on its better record and the fact that Tampa Bay has yet to win a game at home this season. The Buccaneers are coming off their seventh home loss of the season last week against Green Bay as they were in a tough spot with the Packers coming off a loss against the Bills the previous week. Tampa Bay will be out to avoid a winless season at home and despite the 0-7 record, they have had their chances, losing four home games by six points or less. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a cover loss and fall into a great situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 25-7 ATS (78.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (326) Tampa Bay Buccaneers *ENFORCER |
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12-27-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Chicago Bulls OVER 201.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
New Orleans is coming off a big win over San Antonio last night as the defense really stepped up by allowing just 90 points but still allowed the Spurs to shoot over 49 percent from the floor. After going over the total in five straight games, New Orleans has gone under in its last five games and I expect that to reverse out tonight. In their previous seven games playing with no rest, the Pelicans have gone under the total only two times. New Orleans is one of the faster tempo teams in the league as it averages 85.4 shots per game which is eighth highest and the Bulls allow 87 shots per game which is second moist in the league and it is 10-2 to the over against up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more spg this season. Chicago has gone under the total in its last two games but the last game was set at 208 and on the season, the Bulls are 5-0 to the over when the total is set between 200 and 205. New Orleans is 15-10 to the over this season when the total is 195 or higher and we should see the scoreboard lighting up tonight. 10* Over (509) New Orleans Pelicans/(510) Chicago Bulls |
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12-27-14 | Nebraska +7.5 v. USC | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Nebraska finds itself in a rare position of being a ranked team playing in a bowl game without its head coach because he was fired. But that is the case tonight for the Huskers after Bo Pelini was dismissed on November 30th, two days after a 37-34 overtime win at Iowa. It surprised many including many players that loved playing for Pelini and there will be a ton of motivation for Nebraska to win this one for him. Barney Cotton, who served in a number of capacities as an assistant under Pelini, will lead an interim staff of Pelini's assistants so there will be a smooth transition. USC ended its season with a resounding win over Notre Dame but it is not overly impressive considering the Irish's downward spiral at the end of the season. Still, it was disappointing for USC which lost big to UCLA and lost out on a chance to play in the Pac 12 Championship and while this team is good, it should not be favored by this much. The Trojans rely on a strong passing offense but the Huskers match up very well as they finished third nationally with a 100.6 opponents' passer rating, allowing 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Nebraska is 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home against teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better. USC meanwhile is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a home win while going 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (235) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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12-27-14 | Gonzaga v. BYU +6 | Top | 87-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
It doesn't get much better than the conference opener for Gonzaga and BYU as they were picked to finish one and two respectively in the WCC. BYU is coming off an overtime win over Massachusetts in its last game which made it three straight wins since suffering its only home loss of the season against Utah. Senior guard Tyler Haws is averaging 22.3 ppg and is coming off his worst performance of the season by far as he tallied just four points so we will see a big bounce back from him. The Cougars have failed to cover their last four home games but they were favored in all of those and the number today is a lot more enticing as they have not been a home underdog since 2013. Gonzaga is 11-1 on the season and riding a four-game winning streak. The Bulldogs won their last road game against UCLA but they are in a bad spot as they have gone 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games following three straight wins by 10 or more points. Meanwhile, BYU is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 home games after a win by six points or less. 10* (540) BYU Cougars |
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12-27-14 | Virginia Tech +3 v. Cincinnati | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
The underdog came through in two of three bowl games yesterday and we will start Saturday by grabbing the dog in the first game with Virginia Tech. The Hokies had a very trying season as they finished 6-6 and it wasn't until the season finale against Virginia that they were able to punch their ticket into the postseason for the 22nd straight year, the second longest streak in the nation. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games but seven of those games were in the role of favorite and overall, Virginia Tech went 3-1 ATS when getting points. Cincinnati comes in riding a seven-game winning streak so it is unfortunate that it had to take a break in-between the regular season and now as momentum can be hurt from it. These are streaks we like to go against especially considering that only two wins over the stretch came against teams going bowling. Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games away from home after a win by six points or less and falls into a solid situation where we play on teams in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams allowing 4.3 to 4.8 ypc, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (227) Virginia Tech Hokies |
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12-27-14 | Georgia State v. Wisconsin Green Bay -4.5 | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
Green Bay returns home from Las Vegas where it rolled Arkansas-Little Rock by 20 points but then lost a tough one to UC-Irvine by a bucket. The Phoenix are 4-0 at home this season and while this will be the toughest test to date, you can count on them being highly motivated. That is because they will be out for some rare out of conference same season revenge as Green Bay lost to Georgia St. back on December 4th by 24 points as it managed a season low 48 points. The Panthers are off to a 7-3 start as they are 5-0 at home and on a neutral floor but they are just 2-3 on the highway and they have not covered in any of those games. Green Bay is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games following a non-conference game and going back further, the Phoenix are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a losing road record. The Panthers meanwhile are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Revenge will be sweet Saturday afternoon. 10* (526) Green Bay Phoenix |
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12-26-14 | Houston Rockets v. Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 | Top | 117-111 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertainty of forward Zach Randolph as he has missed the last two games with a knee injury. Whether he goes or not, this is a huger game for Memphis which has lost three straight games, including two at home, to fall into third place in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies opened 12-1 on their home floor prior to the two losses, the last one coming against Utah as eight-point favorites on Monday. The Rockets meanwhile snapped a two-game losing streak with a home win over Portland on Monday. We were on Houston in that game which was a big revenge play after last season's playoff outing by the Blazers and while the time off between Monday and now will prevent a letdown, the Rockets head to San Antonio for their next game. The Rockets are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a cover and in Memphis, they have cashed only once in their last eight trips. The Grizzlies are 44-20-1 ATS in their last 65 home games against teams with a winning road record and fall into a great situation where we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss as a favorite, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (810) Memphis Grizzlies |
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12-26-14 | North Carolina State +3 v. Central Florida | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Central Florida comes in riding a four-game winning streak with all four of those games covering as well and I feel that is helping with this number tonight. The Knights concluded their season with a 51-yard Hail Mary as time expired to give UCF a 32-30 road win over East Carolina and the AAC title. So not only is that to overcome but the fact that the Knights played in the Fiesta Bowl last season is a big letdown for this group. NC State had a great turnaround season as it went from three wins last season to seven wins in 2014 and back into postseason play for the fourth time in five years. The Wolfpack concluded their season with a resounding win over rival North Carolina which was its second straight win following a 1-5 stretch that included some blowout losses against some power teams. They too have momentum coming in and a rushing game that should have success as NC State averaged 206 ypg on 5.4 ypc and that came against a difficult schedule. While the Knights possess a tough defense, they did not face a tough slate as five of their last six wins came against non-bowl teams. Look for the Wolfpack to run wild and take this one outright. 10* (225) NC State Wolfpack |
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12-26-14 | Illinois v. Louisiana Tech -6 | Top | 18-35 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
At first glace, a power conference team getting a substantial amount of points from a non-power conference team may be tempting but it is this big for a reason. Illinois is fortunate to even be in a bowl game as it defeated Penn St and Northwestern to end the season which got it the necessary six wins to become eligible. Prior to that, the Illini had dropped five of its previous six games while getting outgained in all six of those games and by an average of 222.2 ypg so they were dominated thoroughly. The defense is awful, allowing 464.3 ypg especially the rushing defense which is giving up 249.6 ypg on 5.1 ypg, the worse of any team playing in the postseason. Louisiana Tech dropped a tough one to Marshall in the C-USA Championship by three points which was its third loss by three points this season. Louisiana Tech has benefitted from not only an opportunistic defense but also senior quarterback Cody Sokol, who came from Iowa, and passed for 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns this season. The Bulldogs are 13th nationally in scoring offense, putting up 37.5 ppg. Louisiana Tech went a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after a loss, with the three outright wins coming by 28, 49 and 45 points. 10* (222) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
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12-25-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
While this game looks like another shootout possibility, the under is the play here as we are getting an extremely favorable number. Golden St. got its revenge from last season's playoff loss by winning 121-104 last month and while that game went over, the closing total was 211 which is seven points less than what we have here, The Warriors have gone over in each of their last three games but this number is higher than any of those while the Clippers have gone over in two straight games and again, the number is higher here. All of this presents great contrarian value and it needs to be noted that this is the highest total either team has seen all season. We play the under where the total is greater than or equal to 210 involving teams after scoring 100 points or more two straight games going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games. This situation is 69-35 (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Golden St. is 19-7 to the under after allowing 110 points or more while going 19-9 to the under after scoring 100 points or more three straight games while the under is 5-1 in the Clippers last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (509) Golden St. Warriors/(510) Los Angeles Clippers |
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12-25-14 | Colorado -3.5 v. Hawaii | Top | 66-69 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Colorado and Hawaii are both coming off tough losses on Tuesday and I expect the Buffaloes to be the better bounce back bet on Thursday. They lost to a very good George Washington team and it was a game that could have gone either way. The defenses on both sides controlled that game and the biggest factor for Colorado in losing was its 1-12 effort from long range. Hawaii meanwhile is coming off an even tougher loss as it took 11th ranked Wichita St. right to the end but lost in overtime by a point. The Shockers scored the winning basket with just 3.8 seconds remaining and the Warriors had a chance to win but missed a shot with no time left. The Warriors are a very good team but trying to make it three straight upsets will not be happening. They are getting one point less than what they were getting against Nebraska in the first round of this tournament and the Buffaloes are a much better team than the Huskers. Colorado has a great situation on its side as we play on road teams as an favorite or pickem that are shooting between 45 and 47.5 percent going up against teams allowing between 40 and 42.5 percent, after a game where it made 20 percent or less from long range. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (515) Colorado Buffaloes |
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12-24-14 | Fresno State v. Rice -2 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is one of those odd situations where we see a team with a losing record in a bowl game but because Fresno St. got to the mandatory six wins and also because of conference affiliations, here they are. The Bulldogs 13th game came in the MWC Championship which they lost to Boise St. but it was actually one of their better games of the season. They came on strong after a poor start that began at 0-3 but overall, they are getting outgained by 37 ypg and a suspect defense allowed three teams to achieve season highs in yardage. The Bulldogs defense has been atrocious to say the least, ranking 111th in yards allowed, 96th vs. the pass, 105th vs. the run and 101st in points allowed (32.6 ppg). Rice also started the season 0-3 but closed on a 7-2 run that including winning the yardage battle in all but two games against Marshall and Louisiana Tech which are a combined 21-6. Allowing 76 points in the season finale to Louisiana Tech was an anomaly as the Owls possess a strong defense as they allowed 23 points or less in all seven of their wins. Rice is 10-1 in its last 11 games against teams with a losing record while going 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when having more than the typical week of preparation. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (220) Rice Owls |
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12-23-14 | Houston v. Texas Tech -5 | Top | 82-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Houston and Texas Tech meet in the consolation game of the Las Vegas Classic. This line came out late and already dropped a full point from the opening number but moved back shortly after. After rolling through eight straight victories, Texas Tech got embarrassed last night against Loyola-Chicago as it managed only 44 points on 34 percent shooting. This included going 0-21 from long range which is certainly hard to do so we will see a rebound effort tonight from a team that is actually very efficient on offense. Houston meanwhile fought Boise St. until the end as it dropped a two-point decision in overtime. The Cougars fought back from a 19-point deficit and to lose a game after that great of a comeback is hard to bounce back from. The Red Raiders success this season has been the use of its deep bench and the ability to have different players step up. Texas Tech has had six different players lead the team in scoring in 11 games. The real strength though is defense as Texas Tech has held its opponent under 70 points for 11 consecutive games, something that has not happened since the 1951-52 season. Look for the Red Raiders to get back to their winning ways tonight. 10* (752) Texas Tech Red Raiders |
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12-23-14 | Charlotte Hornets v. Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Charlotte could not be in a tougher situation tonight as it has not only won three straight games, all against losing teams, but this is the second of a back-to-back and the fourth game in five nights for the Hornets. Despite the recent surge, Charlotte is still 10 games under .500 and hits the road with a 2-10 record on the highway, one of those wins coming against the lowly Sixers. Milwaukee is coming off a great roadtrip for bettors as it covered all four games while splitting those games straight up to remain at .500 on the season. It has been a tough schedule for the Bucks which have played 17 road games compared to just 11 home games but they have taken care of the poor teams, going 4-0 ATS at home against losing teams. Additionally, the Bucks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and have a fantastic situation on their side as we play against underdogs with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (718) Milwaukee Bucks |
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12-23-14 | Toronto Maple Leafs +126 v. Dallas Stars | Top | 4-0 | Win | 126 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
After winning six straight games, Toronto has dropped its last three games including a 4-0 shutout at Chicago on Sunday. The Maple Leafs are in a great position to get back to winning prior to the holiday break. The defense has been surprisingly bad over this three-game skid but we will see an improvement tonight. Dallas meanwhile has won four straight games, all on the road, following a stretch of going 1-5 in its previous six games. The Stars rallied from a three-goal deficit to win in a shootout on Sunday against Edmonton and while they are playing their best hockey of the season, they are in a poor spot tonight. Toronto is 14-6 in its 20 games this season against teams averaging 29.5 or more shots per game while Dallas is 3-8 in its 11 games this season against teams averaging 29.5 or more shots per game. Additionally, the Start are 0-6 this season at home revenging a road loss and they fall into a negative situation where we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 when the money line is -100 to -150 coming off a road win by 1 goal, playing a winning team. This situation is 55-31 (64 percent) since 1996. 10* (5) Toronto Maple Leafs |
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12-23-14 | Northern Illinois v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 23-52 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Some may be surprised by this number but I think it could be a lot higher as giving the Marshall offense over two weeks of preparation can be deadly for the opponent. The Thundering Herd had two bye weeks this season and in the following game, they tallied 56 and 63 points and while this will be a tougher test, don't think that Marshall cannot put up a huge number today. Northern Illinois was struggling for a while before catching fire as it finished the season with seven straight wins including covers in each of the last three. Conversely, after covering eight of nine games, Marshall failed to cover in its last three games which sets up a great contrarian scenario here. Even though Marshall failed .to go through the season undefeated which many anticipated, there is still plenty of motivation. 14 seniors will be playing their final game for the Thundering Herd including senior quarterback Rakeem Cato. The Northern Illinois defense has been solid but has seen nothing like Cato. No quarterback has thrown more than two touchdowns against the Huskies this season, a mark Marshall Cato has either matched or eclipsed in all but two games in 2014. This is a spot the Huskies have not had success in as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg, losing those games by an average of 29 ppg. 10* (214) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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12-22-14 | Providence v. Miami (FL) -1.5 | Top | 76-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Miami and Providence will square off in the second game of the Brooklyn Hoops Invitational at the Barclays Center in New Jersey. After a perfect 8-0 start, Miami has dropped two of its last three games, both at home including an embarrassing loss against Eastern Kentucky by 28 points on Friday. That will trigger a fully focused effort against Providence which has won three straight games after suffering a three-game losing streak prior to that. The Hurricanes shot a season-low 29.3 percent and finished with their lowest point total while allowing the Colonels to make 14 three-pointers, a season high for an opponent. It was the worst home defeat in 17 years for the Hurricanes. Miami will seek better execution after averaging 9.7 assists in this 1-2 stretch after averaging 15.6 apg during their 8-0 start. That defeat should serve as a wake up call and this gives Miami an opportunity to grab another victory against a quality opponent. The Hurricanes are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games away from home after a game where they shot 33 percent or worse from the floor while going 6-0 ATS in their last six games away from home after scoring 55 points or less. 10* (542) Miami Hurricanes |
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12-22-14 | Denver Broncos v. Cincinnati Bengals OVER 47 | Top | 28-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Playoff implications are on the line tonight with both Denver and Cincinnati needing to win to further playoff opportunities. The Broncos need to win to try and keep hope alive for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs while the Bengals can get into the postseason with a win tonight and next week against the Steelers. We are seeing some value with the total tonight however as Denver has gone under in three straight games while Cincinnati is coming off a shutout last week at Cleveland while going under in five of its last six games. Those recent runs are keeping this number down with a couple of very efficient offenses that can put up some numbers. Additionally, the Bengals are ranked sixth and the Broncos are ranked seventh in neutral pace. We have not seen much the last three weeks with the Denver offense but that should change against the Bengals 22nd ranked defense despite shutting out Cleveland last week. Denver falls into a great high scoring scenario where we play the over involving road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg, after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 36-12 (75%) to the over the last five seasons. Meanwhile, Denver is 15-6 to the over in its last 21 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games while the over is 11-4 in the Bengals last 15 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (131) Denver Broncos/(132) Cincinnati Bengals |
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12-22-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Houston Rockets -3.5 | Top | 95-110 | Win | 102 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
After winning seven of its previous eight games, Houston has dropped two straight, both coming at home. The Rockets will be out to stop that skid as well as trying to get revenge against the Blazers. This is the first meeting since Houston lost to Portland in six games in the Western Conference quarterfinals with the ending coming on a Damian Lillard three-pointer as time expired as that is one they certainly not have forgotten about. While the Rockets have been losing, the Blazers have won five straight games including two straight on the highway during this four-game roadtrip that concludes in Oklahoma City tomorrow night. They are coming off a 26-point win last time out and they have tallied 129 and 114 points in their last two games but now they will be facing one of the top defenses in the NBA as the Rockets are allowing just 96.3 ppg on 43.1 percent shooting and Portland is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after scoring 110 points or more two straight games. Additionally, the Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (504) Houston Rockets |
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12-22-14 | BYU v. Memphis UNDER 56.5 | Top | 48-55 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
BYU and Memphis come into this game riding significant winning streaks and both offenses put up some big numbers over the last three games played for each. That being said, the time off is a big advantage for the defenses and the Memphis defense has been playing at a high level all season long. Coming in to this game the Tigers have the fifth ranked defense in points allowed and BYU had a tough time when it did face a strong stop unit. The Cougars defense has not been as consistent but they have been strong in such situations as head coach Rocco Mendenhall is 12-4 to the under against teams that are outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. Additionally, both teams fall into similar situations as we play the under in the second half of the season where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 50-100 ypg. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) to the under over the last five seasons. Memphis has gone under the total in its last six games against teams with a winning record and is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the under is 20-8 in the Cougars last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (211) BYU Cougars/(212) Memphis Tigers |
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12-21-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals +9 | Top | 35-6 | Loss | -115 | 78 h 53 m | Show |
Arizona is once again getting no respect and a lot of that has to do with the quarterback situation of course. No one thinks that Ryan Lindley can make it happen especially against a strong Seattle defense but playing at home can make up the difference here and even more so, he has had over a week to prepare after getting thrown right into the fire last week. It is no secret Arizona will try and run the ball and it comes at a good time as they are coming off their two best rushing games of the season, 143 yards against St. Louis and 141 against Kansas City. The Cardinals also possess a very underrated defense that causes turnovers and is third in the league in scoring defense. In first meeting, the Cardinals held Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards on 15 carries and 13 of those yards came on one play and they sacked Russell Wilson seven times. The Seahawks are definitely peeking at the right time as they have won four straight games and seven of their last eight. Playing on the road is not their strength though as they are 4-3 with only one of those wins coming against a team with a better than .500 record. Head coach Bruce Arians is one of the most underrated coaches in the game and he is 17-4 ATS in 21 home games including a 9-1 ATS record as an underdog. The Cardinals fall into a fantastic situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 14 points or less last game against going up against an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-21-14 | Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat -1.5 | Top | 84-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The new look Celtics head to Miami in their second game since trading Rajon Rondo to Dallas. They won their first game without him which was not a big surprise as players tend to rise up when playing without one of their stars but it is usually the second game that they come back down to a normal level. Boston has won three straight games which is tied for a season high but facing Minnesota and Orlando at home and Philadelphia on the road will allow most teams to win three straight. The Heat are struggling with two straight losses, both at home which has extended their home losing skid to five games. They are the only team in the Eastern Conference that has a losing record at home and a winning record on the road and because of the skid, we are getting a very solid line. Miami falls into a fantastic situation as we play against teams that are coming off a home win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .400 and .499. This situation is 65-32 ATS (67 percent) since 1996. The Celtics are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games following a double-digit win. 10* (708) Miami Heat |
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12-21-14 | Dallas Stars v. Edmonton Oilers +130 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Dallas heads to Edmonton riding a three-game winning streak including road wins in the last two games. The Stars have allowed just four goals during the winning streak which is a surprise considering that they are allowing 3.4 gpg which is the worst in the NHL. The Stars are seeking a fourth win in a row which would mark their longest winning streak since a five-game run in April 2013. Edmonton meanwhile has been struggling but give the Oilers credit for continuing to play hard after the firing of head coach Dallas Eakins as they have dropped their last two games by just one goal. The losing streak has reached six games but Sunday presents a good opportunity to end the streak against goalie Kari Lehtonen who has allowed just one goal in his last two starts. Prior to this run, he had allowed two goals or less in eight starts since mid-October but followed those up by allowing 34 goals, an average of 4.25 gpg. Edmonton falls into a profitable situation where we play on underdogs coming off two consecutive losses against division rivals, playing with two days rest. This situation is 26-13 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Stars are 4-14 in their last 18 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. 10* (2) Edmonton Oilers |
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12-21-14 | Seton Hall v. Georgia -2.5 | Top | 47-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
We made a poor call with South Florida on Thursday as Seton Hall went in and took care of the Bulls by 20 points in what could have been a lookahead situation. The Pirates shot 53.8 percent from the floor including 55 percent from long range but now they will be facing a very strong defensive team. Seton Hall is off to a perfect 9-0 ATS start, the only team in the nation that has played more than four lined games and covered every one of those. Because of that, we are getting a good line with Georgia which is off to an average start this season but is a perfect 4-0 at home. The Bulldogs three losses have come against some pretty stiff competition and they have not played a game in two weeks because of final exams but that is actually a good thing here as it has allowed guard Kenny Gaines to get healthy following a shoulder injury in the last game. He is one of four double-digit scorers for Georgia and is one of the leaders in field goal percentage. We play against teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better having covered six or seven of their last eight against the spread, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 119-67 ATS (64 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (732) Georgia Bulldogs |
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12-21-14 | Detroit Lions v. Chicago Bears +9.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show |
The Bears would not have been a play but the benching of Jay Cutler has changed that as we will see the players rally around Jimmy Clausen. And because of the Cutler benching, the line has gone up and wee are getting an exceptional number here. Chicago has lost three consecutive games, both straight up and against the number and with no chance for the postseason, many are writing them off. This is the last home game of the season so the effort will be there and while this is a play on Chicago, it is also a play against Detroit. The Lions have won three straight games, all of those coming at home and that often presents a good opportunity to go against. This is a big game for the Lions as they are at Green Bay next week which will decide the division but taking the Lions outside in the elements is not ideal. They are 3-3 on the road and one of those wins came in London and in the five true road games, they have averaged just 12.6 ppg. Chicago falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems after two or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 96-57 ATS (62.7 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Detroit is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games against teams who give up 27 or more ppg and 7-23 ATS in its last 30 games following two or more wins. Chicago is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games revenging a road loss by 14 points or more and 9-0 ATS in its last nine home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10* (112) Chicago Bears *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH |
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12-21-14 | Minnesota Vikings +7 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 70 h 25 m | Show |
Plain and simple, this line is way too high. Minnesota has been playing exceptional as it has covered seven of its last eight games and while it may be just 4-4 in those games, three of those losses were by a field goal or less. The Vikings are not in the playoff hunt but you have to give a ton of credit to head coach Mike Zimmer as his team continues to play hard for him despite the fact they will miss the postseason for a second straight year. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is coming into his own as he has a 91.8 passer rating in his last six games and Miami's defense has been nothing special the last few weeks. While they are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, the Dolphins need a ton of help and it isn't likely. Head coach Joe Philbin is now on the hot seat and the way the team has looked, he may have lost his players. The offense hasn't scored more than 16 points and been held to 213 rushing yards in the last three games and the Vikings defense has steadily improved over the second half of the season. Two situations are on our side. First, we play against home favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 coming off a road loss by 14 points or more. This situation is 55-26 ATS (67.9 percent) since 1983. Second, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg differential after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 43-17 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (107) Minnesota Vikings *ENFORCER |
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12-20-14 | South Alabama v. Bowling Green OVER 53 | Top | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 80 h 33 m | Show |
Bowling Green and South Alabama enter the Camellia Bowl in not great form as the Falcons lost their last three games and the Jaguars went down in four of their last five games. There should be plenty of motivation on both sides to try and win considering Bowling Green has not won a bowl game since 2004 and South Alabama is making its first ever appearance in a bowl game. In this case, the matchup is a good one for a lot of points to be scored. Keeping opponents off the scoreboard has been a problem for Bowling Green, which surrendered over 40 points six times and is ranked 101st in the country in scoring defense, allowing 33.9 ppg. The rushing defense is especially bad and the Jaguars can take advantage as they have five players which ran the ball at least 65 times so they can bring it from a lot areas. Even though running keeps the clock moving, the can move it in big chunks and that of course will set up the passing game. On the other side, South Alabama was solid on defense up until its final two games of the season and it could be in for a long night here. Bowling Green features one of the nation's quickest offenses, averaging 29.8 ppg and 427.8 ypg and of its 43 touchdown drives, 27 took less than 120 seconds. We should see plenty of big plays and as long as we can avoid turnovers in deep enemy territory, this one should fly over the number. 10* Over (209) South Alabama Jaguars/(210) Bowling Green Falcons |
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12-20-14 | San Diego Chargers v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 41.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 79 h 44 m | Show |
Motivation plays a big role this time of year in the NFL as there are teams that are still highly motivated in trying to get into the playoffs while teams that are already eliminated are on the opposite side of that. San Diego and San Francisco respectively fall into this scenario and while the Chargers may seem like a good pick getting points, I think the motivational issues will give us an easier time with the total. Namely San Francisco and it typical strong defense may cash it in for the rest of the season knowing there is little left to play for. The 49ers defense is ranked third overall but they have struggled the last three games and there is no reason to think that won't continue here. San Diego has an average offense but after two mediocre games and with a lot on the line, I expect big improvements. The Chargers defense has slipped of late and the 49ers should be able to move the ball with Colin Kaepernick out to prove something. Two situations favor the over. First, we play the over involving home teams that matches up two teams averaging +/- 0.4 yppl differential, after gaining 250 or less total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 41-16 (71.9 percent) to the over since 1983. Second, we play the over involving teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 25-8 (75.8 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (103) San Diego Chargers/(104) San Francisco 49ers |
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12-20-14 | Utah v. Colorado State +3.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -115 | 74 h 48 m | Show |
Utah comes in as the favorite despite having the worse record mainly because the Utes reside in a stronger conference. They have played a stronger schedule than Colorado St. but it is hard to ignore the numbers as they have been outgained in nine of their last 10 games and their last five wins have come by a total of 18 points so they have been squeaking by. Colorado St. will be without its head coach Jim McElwain to has taken the job at Florida and a lot of time that can discourage a team heading into its bowl game but that won't be the case here. Offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will serve as the interim coach and every other coach is here so it will be business as usual for the Rams. The offense will not miss a beat as they ranked 12th in the country in total offense led by quarterback Garrett Grayson, the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year with 32 touchdown passes and six interceptions and he finished second in FBS passer rating behind Oregon Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. The Utes offense averaged over 120 ypg less than Colorado St. and with both defenses pretty equal, the Rams have the edge and we are getting points on top of it. The Rams are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and the last game they were defeated by Air Force despite outgaining the Falcons by 95 yards. 10* (206) Colorado St. Rams |
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12-19-14 | Utah Jazz v. Orlando Magic -3 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Orlando is back home and will be playing its first homestand since early November as the schedule for the last five weeks has been brutal. This is the first of four straight games for the Magic which have played nine of their last 11 games on the road and on the season, just nine of 28 games have been at home. That has certainly been a big cause to them being eight games under .500 but it provides an opportunity to buy them low thanks to them playing the toughest schedule in the Eastern Conference. Orlando is 3-14 against the NBA's top 16 but 7-4 against the bottom 14. Utah is coming off a win at Miami on Wednesday, a rare victory of late and a rare victory on the road. It was just the third road win of the season for the Jazz and only the seventh overall, none of which have been won in succession. They are 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS following a victory with four of those losses coming by double-digits. The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record while Utah is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games coming off a road win. 10* (802) Orlando Magic |
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12-19-14 | St. Mary's +8.5 v. St. John's | Top | 47-53 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
St. John's is off to a great start this season as it is 8-1 with the lone loss coming against Gonzaga and now it will be taking on its second WCC team of the season. This Red Storm are ranked for the second straight week and they are just two points away from being a perfect 6-0 against the number as they have a push and a cover loss by just one point. That sets up some good value here as I feel this line is inflated because of the early success and the fact that St. Mary's is coming off a loss last time out. The Gales fell to Northern Arizona on their home floor on Tuesday as 14-point favorites, their second loss of the season. The first loss also came at home against Boise St. but they were able to follow that one up with a win on the road against previously ranked Creighton so the situation tonight is very similar. St. Mary's is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games coming off a home loss by three points or less and while an outright win here would be far from shocking, we will gladly grab the generous points tonight. 10* (821) St. Mary's Gaels |
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12-18-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Sacramento Kings -6 | Top | 108-107 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This line came out late due to injury scenarios but they are all pretty clear. Jabari Parker went down with a season-ending torn left ACL on Monday and the Bucks suffered another loss when starting guard Giannis Antetokounmpo sprained his left ankle last night and did not return. He likely will not be around tonight. For Sacramento, Rudy Gay has an Achilles injury but should be in the lineup and most importantly, the Kings will see the return of DeMarcus Cousins who has missed 10 straight games because of viral meningitis. Milwaukee is coming off a hard fought battle in Portland last night as the Bucks were in the game throughout until a late Blazers run sealed the game. The Bucks have covered three straight games so we are getting some value based on that along with the fact Sacramento has lost four straight games while failing to cover its last three games. The Kings are 2-8 in the 10 games without Cousins so his return will be a big one as they went from three games over .500 to three games under .500. His minutes will be limited but any Cousins is better than no Cousins. The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (506) Sacramento Kings |
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12-18-14 | Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 40 | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
The NFL Network cannot be too thrilled to have this yawner as the final Thursday night game of the season but that is what they got stuck with. While many will be expecting a low scoring game that will have two inept offenses going at it, I think we will see a lot more scoring than anticipated. Both teams have gone under the total in two straight games as the offenses have scored a grand total of 42 points in those four games. That doesn't come to be much of a surprise as these are two of the lowest scoring teams in football but it is the other side that will be of help. Tennessee is ranked 29th in total defense and 31st in scoring defense while Jacksonville is ranked 28th in total defense and 29th in scoring defense so even some of the worst offenses in the league can get through these stop units. Because of the public perception, the total is the lowest that each team has seen all season and it is over two points lower than the first meeting which finished at 30 total points as many will be banking on another similar finish. Tennessee falls into a great over situation as we play the involving road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points off two or more consecutive unders and are getting outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 53-23 (69.7 percent) to the over since 1983. Additionally, Tennessee is 12-2 to the over in its last 13 games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games while the over is 5-1 in the Jaguars last six games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (101) Tennessee Titans/(102) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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12-18-14 | Toronto Maple Leafs v. Carolina Hurricanes +124 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 124 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
This is a perfect contrarian play as we will be going against Toronto which has won six straight games and is currently in sixth place in the Eastern Conference. The Maple Leafs have also won eight of their last nine games and while it has been a great run, the schedule has had a lot to do with that. This will be just the second road game in three weeks for Toronto and overall, it has played 21 home games compared to just 10 road games and that 11-game variance is easily the most in the league. Carolina meanwhile has lost six straight games, scoring just one goal in each of those defeats so this offense has to come to life. The Hurricanes defense has struggled the last two games but those were on the road and they have been much better at home. Despite allowing four goals to the Canadiens on Tuesday, goalie Cam Ward has been one of the league's best goalies and that last game was on the road. At home, he has a 2.09 GAA and a .922 save percentage. Here, we play on home teams after scoring two goals or less in three straight games going up against an opponent after scoring four goals or more in two straight games. This situation is 34-9 (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Maple Leafs are 0-6 in their last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (54) Carolina Hurricanes |
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12-18-14 | Seton Hall v. South Florida +7 | Top | 89-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Seton Hall heads to South Florida for just its second road game of the season and the Pirates are an overwhelming favorite by both the linesmakers and the public. This comes as no surprise as Seton Hall is off to a perfect 8-0 ATS start, the only team in the nation that has played more than four lined games and covered every one of those. Thus the linesmakers are forced to overinflate this number and we can take advantage of that here. South Florida meanwhile has lost three straight games to drop to 5-4 on the season and the Bulls are coming off their first home loss of the season against Georgia Southern. We played against the Bulls in that game and now they go from a large home favorite to a large home underdog in a span of just three days. Head coach Orlando Antigua benched his five starters for the opening minutes of the second half against Georgia Southern and that should send a message to his players. The Bulls are struggling from the outside but they are fifth in the country in percentage of total points coming from within the arc and 19th in two-point percentage so easy baskets have led the way to the success they have had. Seton Hall has a game at Georgia on deck so a lookahead is possible and we will take advantage of the generous line for tonight. 10* (514) South Florida Bulls |
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12-17-14 | Houston Rockets v. Denver Nuggets OVER 206 | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
These teams just met on Saturday with Houston prevailing at home 108-96, staying under the total by just a bucket. With the change in venue, I expect this one to fly over tonight. That was the third under in the last four games for the Rockets with the lone over coming on the road at Sacramento and the location of the game makes a difference for this team. Houston averages 188.7 ppg in its home games but that climbs to 201.6 ppg in road games and while that is still lower than this total, the difference of 12.9 ppg is huge and even more so when taking into account the opponent. Denver averages about the same both home and away as it is right at 207 ppg. The Nuggets have gone under the total in three straight games as well as three straight at home but a lot of that has to do with the pace of the game. As far as possessions per game, Denver has 100.3 and Houston has 99, good for sixth and eight most in the league respectively. Both teams fall into a solid contrarian over situation as we play the over involving teams shooting between 41.5 and 43.5 percent and that are between +/-3 rpg in margin. This situation is 72-34 (67.9 percent) to the over the last five seasons. 10* Over (717) Houston Rockets/(718) Denver Nuggets |
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12-17-14 | Tennessee v. NC State -5.5 | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
We played on Tennessee two games back as it was playing its first home game against Kansas St. in over two weeks and while the Volunteers failed to cover for us because of a last second Wildcats shot, they came away with the win. They followed that up with a win over Butler this past Sunday which was their first cover of the season. Now Tennessee does a complete turnaround as it travels to Raleigh for its first true road game of the season, one of just a handful of teams remaining that have yet to hit the highway for a true road game. The Volunteers are doing it at the wrong time as they will be facing a Wolf Pack team coming off their second loss of the season and it was a bad one as they lost to Wofford by a point as the Terriers scored a layup with 1.9 seconds left while NC State had a supposed game winning shot reversed as time expired. Wofford improved to 8-2 so it is not a bad team and we are getting some value because of that upset loss. Look for a very energized effort from the Wolf Pack tonight as they look to add to their 11-3 ATS run after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 10* (724) NC State Wolf Pack |
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12-16-14 | NY Rangers v. Calgary Flames +101 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Calgary opened as a slight favorite here but is now a slight underdog and a lot of that movement is based on recent results which now gives us solid value in this contrarian play. The Rangers have won three straight games including the first two games of this four-game homestand to move back to .500 on the season overall but they are still just 5-6 on the road. Those 11 road games are second fewest in the NHL. While New York has been winning, Calgary has been going the opposite way as it has dropped five straight games to move to 17-15 on the season. The last four losses have all been on the road however with the last two defeats coming against the Penguins and Blackhawks. The Flames lost to San Jose at home to start this losing streak but prior to that, they had won three straight and going back further, they were victorious in seven of their previous eight games. The Rangers are 2-8 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Flames are 6-0 in their last six games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game and they fall into a great situation where we play on home teams against the money line with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after losing five or more consecutive games. This situation is 54-13 (80.6 percent) since 1997 including a perfect 4-0 the last three years. 10* (72) Calgary Flames |
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12-16-14 | Akron v. North Dakota State -1.5 | Top | 46-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Akron is the higher profile team in this matchup but the Zips come in as underdogs and for a good reason. They are coming off a home loss on Saturday against Middle Tennessee St. which snapped a three-game winning streak and while a bounceback could be a good reason to back them, they are traveling to a tough environment. This is just the second true road game of the season for Akron and it has been close to three weeks since it traveled last. The Zips were a preseason favorite to win the MAC and while they will still be competitive for sure, the loss of All-MAC forward Demetrius Treadwell, who was suspended after only one game, is a huge loss. North Dakota St. snapped its two-game skid with a blowout win over rival North Dakota on Saturday and the Bison can use that as momentum to avenge last season's 15-point loss at Akron. This is just their third home game of the season and going back, North Dakota St. is 28-2 at home since the start of the 2012-13 season and it has won 15 straight home games, which is tied for the eighth longest active home winning streak in the nation. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a home loss by three points or less, playing team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (536) North Dakota St. Bison |
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12-16-14 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Washington Wizards OVER 201.5 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
We are getting a good number here based on recent games and this should turn into a high scoring affair. Minnesota has gone under the total in four straight games but all of those were at home where the offense was unable to generate much and the defense actually played rather well. The road defense is a different story as the Timberwolves are allowing a whopping 115.6 ppg including an incredible 124.3 ppg over their last six games. This is exactly what the Washington offense needs as it has been hit or miss and is coming off a 93-point effort against Utah last time out. Going back to early November, the Wizards have scored fewer than 100 points seven previous times and have followed that up with 100 or more points six times. Washington is averaging 112.6 ppg over its last five home games and its 48.2 percent overall shooting percentage at home is seventh best in the NBA. The Wizards are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA but the Timberwolves will push the ball as they are averaging 85.2 shots per game which is eighth most in the NBA and that number drops just slightly on the road. Minnesota is 14-3 to the over in its last 17 road games after two or more consecutive unders and 15-2 to the over in its last 17 road games against teams shooting 46 percent on the season or better. Washington is 14-6 to the over in its last 20 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (501) Minnesota Timberwolves/(502) Washington Wizards |
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12-15-14 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Phoenix Suns -4.5 | Top | 96-94 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a big game for Phoenix as it has dropped five straight games and needs a win before it hits the road for seven of its next eight games. The Suns have played a tough schedule of late with the exception being a loss against Detroit in their last home game where they have now dropped two in a row. They are coming off a 24-point loss last night in Oklahoma City against the 100% healthy Thunder and while they have struggled in the second of back-to-back games, they all but one of the first six instances have come on the road. Milwaukee meanwhile is coming off an upset win at home against the Clippers which snapped a two-game slide. The Bucks are now back to .500 but are still just 5-8 on the road and on the season, they are just 2-8 against teams ranked within the top 16 of the league and that is where Phoenix resides. The Suns are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 10 points while the Bucks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games coming off an upset win as an underdog. Suns guard Goran Dragic did not play in Sunday game at Oklahoma City and he was held out in hopes of being able to return tonight which would be an added benefit. Phoenix stops the bleeding tonight. 10* (712) Phoenix Suns |
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12-15-14 | New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears +3 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
It is pretty hard to believe that over their last seven games, the Saints are 1-4 at home and 2-0 on the road which is a complete anomaly of normal Saints teams. New Orleans is getting the love again tonight as it is favored on the road against a team with an identical record overall as well as with the home/road splits. This is not a role that the Saints have thrived in this season as they are 3-8 ATS as a favorite including going 1-3 as a road favorite. The Bears have been a major disappointment at home also and they are coming off a pair of losses, one on Detroit on Thanksgiving where they played on short rest and last Thursday at home against Dallas. They now have had extra time off for this game and the fact they are getting just one points less here against the 5-8 Saints than they did against the then 9-4 Cowboys which makes no sense. One of the areas that has hurt Chicago is turnovers as they are -6 in turnover margin but the Saints have actually been worse with a -9 turnover margin. Chicago is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 home games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse and have a solid situation on its side for tonight as we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams averaging between 23 and 27 ppg, after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) since 1983. Look for the wet and windy weather tonight to affect New Orleans much more. 10* (334) Chicago Bears |
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12-15-14 | Georgia Southern +8 v. South Florida | Top | 68-63 | Win | 101 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Georgia Southern is not getting very much respect with this line and a lot of that is due to the home/road split of both sides. The Eagles are 4-0 at home but 0-2 on the road while South Florida is 4-0 at home and 1-3 on the road. The Bulls have defeated no one of significance at home however as only of the four games had a line and they were unable to cover the -2.5 number against Hofstra as they won by just one point. Georgia Southern meanwhile has covered both road games, losing at Central Florida by just two points and at Illinois by only nine points as a 23-point underdog. The Eagles are a solid rebounding team and force a lot of turnovers and those intangibles are huge. This is the first game in nearly two weeks for the Eagles and while some may feel that is a detriment, it should not come into play considering that South Florida has also been off for a lengthy period, nine days. One big advantage for Georgia Southern comes at the free throw line where it is hitting 79.4 percent compared to just 63.3 percent for the Bulls. South Florida is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite while going 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a loss. Additionally, the Bulls are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games against teams who average nine or more steals per game. 10* (719) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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12-14-14 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +3 | Top | 100-94 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
There isn't much separating Minnesota and Los Angeles yet the Lakers come in as road favorites which should not be the case. The Lakers have won two straight games including a big overtime win over San Antonio last time out on Friday which makes it just seven wins on the season and they have yet to win three in a row, losing two games by 34 and 16 points following the other two times this season they had consecutive wins. Minnesota meanwhile lost its last game and it is 1-2 on its current homestand but playing the Warriors, Blazers and Thunder is no easy feat. Going back further, the schedule has been incredibly challenging as this is just the Timberwolves second game this season against a team with a losing record. Minnesota is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games coming off a double-digit home loss and it falls into a great situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 103 or more ppg on the season, after a win by three points or less. This situation is 40-13 ATS (75.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (808) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-14-14 | Minnesota Vikings +8 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 75 h 48 m | Show |
The Vikings got away with one last Sunday as they won in overtime against a Jets team that was in a horrible spot coming off a Monday loss to the Dolphins. Minnesota escaped in overtime and now heads to Detroit for a revenge game where it lost 17-3 in the first meeting while gaining a mere 212 total yards. The difference now is that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has a lot more experience and he is playing excellent right now with QB ratings of 120.7 and 117.7 the last two games. He will be facing a tough Detroit defense for sure but the Lions are not in a good spot. This is the final game of a three-game homestand for the Lions and the final home game of the season and teams playing in their third consecutive home game after winning the first two games are just 6-24 ATS since 1990. This is no doubt a big game for the Lions in trying to keep pace with Green Bay as they face the Packers in the season finale in two weeks. But we are catching a great number as Detroit is laying just two points less than last week against a much better team. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six games revenging a same season loss while Detroit is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. 10* (323) Minnesota Vikings *ENFORCER |
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12-14-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 37.5 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
This is a contrarian play on the total but we have a lot of favorable angles calling for a high scoring game. One big factor is the total itself as it is the first time all season that either team is being presented with a total in the 30's and it is two points lower than the total in the first meeting on Thanksgiving. That first meeting stay under by a lot which is playing into this number as is the fact that San Francisco has gone under in its last four games while Seattle has gone under in its last three games. The series has seen four straight unders cash but again, this is lowest over/under of the bunch so we are getting some great value. The San Francisco offense has been plodding along of late and while the Seahawks defense presents a challenge, being the second game in three weeks, the 49ers should be well prepared on offense after a bad string of games. Seattle is averaging 28.7 ppg at home so it will get its points against a 49ers defense that has struggled in four of their last five games. Seattle falls into a solid situation as we play the over involving teams that have gone under the total by more than seven points in three consecutive games. This situation is 25-6 (80.6 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Also, Seattle has gone over in seven straight games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* Over (329) San Francisco 49ers/(330) Seattle Seahawks |
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12-14-14 | Illinois State v. DePaul -2.5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
We played against DePaul on Thursday as it lost at George Washington by 13 points but we will back the Blue Demons as they head home on Sunday. Prior to the game Thursday, DePaul has won four straight games while easily cashing the three lined games all of which were at home including a 15-point win over a solid Stanford team. The Blue Demons are 5-1 at home overall while going 2-0 ATS in games against teams with a wining record. Illinois St. won its last game on the road at UAB a week ago which was its first road game of the season. The Blue Demons hit the road for their next four games, so they would certainly like to win before the roadtrip against Oregon St. and then three games in Hawaii in the Diamond Head Classic. Going back, the Redbirds are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Blue Demons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Lay the short price today. 10* (826) DePaul Blue Demons |
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12-14-14 | Miami Dolphins +8 v. New England Patriots | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
Many will be backing the Patriots here based on the fact that they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season and will be out for revenge following their 33-20 loss in Miami opening week. Of course both of those factors are already being taken into consideration with the line which I feel is inflated because of the public's admiration for New England. The Patriots surely want to keep winning to grab home field advantage in the playoffs but this is a bigger game for the Dolphins as a loss here will knock them out of the playoff picture. Miami has lost two of its last three games including a 28-13 home loss against Baltimore last week that was decided on an overturned turnover call which ended up being the difference. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983 including a perfect 4-0 the last 10 years. The Dolphins are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (315) Miami Dolphins *DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR |
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12-14-14 | Oakland Raiders v. Kansas City Chiefs -10 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
The Chiefs got off to a solid 7-3 start this season but they have since lost three games in a row including a couple narrow losses by four and three points. They are on the verge of falling out of the playoff picture so while this is a must win, Kansas City could use a game of domination from start to finish to build some confidence before playing Pittsburgh and San Diego to close out the season. The Chiefs could not be hosting a better opponent this week to regain some of that domination as hey will be out to avenge a loss in Oakland in Week 12 which happened to be the Raiders first win. Oakland is coming off a win last week against the 49ers and we all remember what happened to the Raiders in their next game after their first win as they were pummeled by the Rams. Kansas City has two great situations in its favor. First, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are revenging a road loss, off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 55-22 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 72-33 ATS (68.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (306) Kansas City Chiefs *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR |
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12-13-14 | Detroit Pistons v. Sacramento Kings -6 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
You can't fault Detroit if it is still celebrating following last night's 105-103 victory over Phoenix which was just its second road win of the season and it happened to snap a 13-game losing streak in the process. Winning has been difficult for the Pistons obviously and the close call last night will make it especially tough tonight as Detroit is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games following a win by three points or less. The Kings were on the verge of a breakout season but they have stumbled over the last few weeks and are currently riding a two-game losing streak following an overtime loss against Houston on Thursday. The absence of DeMarcus Cousins has been big as he has missed the last eight games but Sacramento is in a good position without him tonight. The schedule has been a difficult one for the Kings as they have played the second toughest schedule in the NBA and they have gone 3-8 against the NBA's top ten and 8-4 against everyone else. Additionally, they are 7-3 ATS this season against teams with a losing record while going back, the Pistons are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (516) Sacramento Kings |
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12-13-14 | Cincinnati v. Nebraska -4.5 | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
While Michigan's loss to NJIT, and subsequently to Eastern Michigan, made the most news, Nebraska's loss to Incarnate Word on Wednesday at home is arguably worse yet it kind of flew under the radar It was the second straight loss at home for the Huskers are they also lost to rival Creighton prior to that and that sets up a great opportunity to play them tonight. Cincinnati has just one loss on the season which came against Mississippi on a neutral floor in Florida but this is its first true road game of the season and it could not come at a worse time. Nebraska will also be out for some payback following last season's 15-point loss in Cincinnati so motivation will be there for that as well. Nebraska is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of six points or less while the Bearcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. We will lay the short price on a team that absolutely will be fully focused. 10* (574) Nebraska Cornhuskers |
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12-13-14 | Purdue v. Vanderbilt +2.5 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
After nine days off between games for final exams, Vanderbilt is back on the court Saturday and still in a foul mood. The Commodores are coming off a loss against Baylor last time out at home by three points as the Bears went off from long range, going 10-18. Purdue is a very solid team but it is very young as three of the starting five are true freshman. The Boilermakers survived the Maui Invitational, losing to Kansas St. and then defeating Missouri and BYU to take fifth place. While those were solid wins on a neutral floor, this presents the first true road test of the season for Purdue and its freshmen. The Commodores are very young as well as they also start three freshmen but playing at home is a different story especially knowing that Vanderbilt is 125-15 at home in non-conference games under head coach Kevin Stallings. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a cover as a double digit favorite, playing their 3rd game in less that seven days. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (576) Vanderbilt Commodores |
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12-13-14 | Army +15 v. Navy | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
This series has been dominated by Navy in recent years as it is riding a 12-game winning streak over Army dating back to 2002. It is the longest winning streak by either team in this series that goes back to 1890 and the linesmakers are not believing that Army breaks that streak this season. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by less than what Army is getting this year and surprisingly, this is the highest pointspread in this series since 2006 when Army was getting 19 points and covered. What makes that surprising is the fact Army has come into this game with three or fewer wins six times since 2006 and it has more than that this season while Navy, at 6-5, has come into this game with seven or more wins seven times since 2006 so while the team's records are closer, the line is not. The Midshipmen are not having a great year and even though they come in with wins in four of their last five games, they are overvalued in this spot. The Army ground game is good enough to keep pace and the Navy defense will not provide much resistance. Taking care of the ball is paramount for the Black Knights as they have win the yardage battle three of the last four years only to lose because of costly turnovers. While the streak may not end this year, we will grab the generous points while rooting for the outright win. 10* (303) Army Black Knights |
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12-12-14 | Iowa State v. Iowa -6.5 | Top | 90-75 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
It is rare to see a highly ranked team being a big underdog against an unranked team but that is the case tonight and it falls into one of the best college hoops angles around. Iowa St. hits to road to face rival Iowa tonight and the Cyclones come in ranked 14th in the nation in the most recent AP Poll. They have won three straight games following a loss against Maryland in Kansas City and this marks their first true road game of the season. They will have to make the trip without second leading scorer Bryce Dejean-Jones (17.1 ppg) as he has been suspended for one game. Iowa has won six straight games after a pair of losses at MSG and this includes a huge victory at North Carolina just over a week ago. The Hawkeyes should be pretty motivated against their rival following a three-point loss last season where they gave up a huge lead. Iowa falls into a great situation where we play against road teams as an underdog or pickem after three straight wins by 10 points or more that are averaging 76 or more ppg going up against teams allowing 63 or fewer ppg. This situation is 91-48 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (826) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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12-12-14 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Washington Wizards +2.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is one of those games where we have the Western Conference favored over the Eastern Conference but not so sure that should be the case. The Clippers are on a roll with nine straight wins including five straight on the road to improve to 8-2 on the highway but looking at those victories raises some questions. The best team Los Angeles has defeated on the road is Houston which was without Dwight Howard and that is the line victory away from home against a team with a winning record. Washington is tied with Atlanta at 15-6 for the lead in the Southeast Division as it has won two straight games coming into Friday but is riding a three-game losing streak against the number which is helping us here. The Wizards are 10-2 at home and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Additionally, we play against road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having covered four of their last five against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 63-27 ATS (70 percent) since 1996. 10* (804) Washington Wizards |
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12-11-14 | Winnipeg Jets v. Colorado Avalanche -107 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Winnipeg is coming off a 5-2 victory over Dallas on Tuesday to make it three wins in its last four games with the lone defeat coming against Anaheim in overtime. The Jets are a solid 9-7 on the road but the time and place are not on their side tonight to add to that record. They have a home rematch with Anaheim on deck and they are 0-4 in their last four games after scoring five or more goals. The last time they put up that many goals prior to Dallas came three games back against Colorado where they scored six goals at home, the second home win over the Avalanche this season so Colorado will be out for some payback tonight. The Avalanche have dropped four straight games including a 3-0 shutout at home against Nashville on Tuesday. They are one of the best rebounding teams at home in the NHL however as going back to last season, they are 21-2 in their last 23 games off a home loss including going a perfect 11-0 in 11 games coming off a loss by two goals or more. Additionally, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 that are coming off a win by three goals or more over a division rival, playing a losing team. This situation is 62-38 (62 percent) since 1996. 10* (16) Colorado Avalanche |
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12-11-14 | Arizona Cardinals +4 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
Despite a 10-3 record, not many people are giving Arizona a chance here or the rest of the season for that matter based on their recent play where they have gone 1-2 over their last three games while getting outgained in all three of those. The loss of Carson Palmer at quarterback was no doubt big but Drew Stanton has fared pretty well. He played well against Detroit, the best defense in the NFL, in his first start and with the exception of a bad game in Seattle, he has compiled ratings of 91.4, 72 and 88.1. Certainly not great but good enough to have chances to win and he is 2-2 in those starts. The play of St. Louis is also playing into this line and it is a surprise for sure as it has won two straight games while covering its last four. Beating Denver was big and playing San Diego close was solid but the last two wins came against Washington and Oakland, a combined 5-21. Additionally, the Rams shut out those last two opponents which brings up a great opportunity to play against them here. Arizona is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games coming off a nonconference game while the Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 250 total yards. Also, we play against home favorites revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (301) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-11-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Because of early season injuries, the Thunder got off to a poor start and have a lot of ground to make up in the Western Conference. They are 8-13 which is good for 12th place and while making the playoffs will likely happen, every game counts. Oklahoma City is 4-1 since the return of Russell Westbrook and 3-1 since the return of Kevin Durant and now they are after their first signature wins since their returns. Cleveland has responded to its poor start by winning its last eight games to take over first place in the Central Division. The Cavaliers finally seem to be coming together as a team and the chemistry is improving. While two wins over Toronto during the winning streak are nice, there are no other big wins and the Cavaliers are just 2-4 against the Western Conference as compared to 11-3 against the Eastern Conference. Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games after failing to cover the spread in three out of its last four games and despite the early injury bug, the Thunder are 4-0 ATS at home this season against winning teams. 10* (702) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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12-11-14 | DePaul v. George Washington -9 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
DePaul has won four straight games by double-digits while covering the three games that have had lines associated with them. This started with a blowout win over Stanford but prior to that was a home win over Illinois-Chicago by just a point and a home loss against Lehigh so it has been a tale of two teams. DePaul is off to its best start since 1993 but now comes its biggest road test thus far. George Washington is coming off a 24-win NCAA Tournament campaign and is projected to return to the Big Dance as it is returning a ton from last season. Four starters are back and the Colonials improved to 5-2 on the season with a 78-70 win over Charlotte on Sunday. Six players are averaging at least 6.7 ppg so balance is also a big asset and the backcourt duo of Patricio Garino and Kethan Savage is one of the best around. George Washington has failed to cover its last three games and I think that is providing us with enormous value as this line has already dropped 2.5 points from its opening on Wednesday afternoon. Here, we play against road teams as an underdog or pickem that are averaging 76 or more ppg going up against allowing 63 or fewer ppg, after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more. This situation is 90-47 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (706) George Washington Colonials |
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12-10-14 | Rhode Island v. Providence -3 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Providence opened as a five-point favorite in this game Tuesday afternoon and was quickly brought down to four points and has come down another point since then. This one sets up perfectly for the Friars which have lost three straight games following a perfect 6-0 start. They defeated Notre Dame and blew away Florida St. while also defeating a very good Yale team and the losses have not been bad even though they have come in succession. Losing to Kentucky by 20 points may seem respectable to some and losses against Boston College and Brown were decided at the free throw line and three-point line respectively. Look for the Friars to come out with a ton of energy and focus tonight. Rhode Island is no pushover as it is 5-2 overall and coming off a 32-point win over Southern Mississippi in its first road game of the season. The one big edge the Rams have had this season in their wins is rebounding but that won't be the case tonight and Providence neutralizes teams like this as it is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games against teams outrebounding opponents by 4.0 or more rpg while going 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after two straight games giving up nine or fewer offensive rebounds. Rhode Island meanwhile is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 55 or fewer points while going 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games after a win by 20 or more points. 10* (524) Providence Friars |
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12-09-14 | Eastern Michigan v. Michigan -13.5 | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Michigan is coming off an improbable loss on Saturday as it fell to NJIT at home as a 23.5-point favorite. It was the first ever game against a ranked team for NJIT and at one points a few seasons back, the Highlanders were on a 58-game losing streak. While it was a loss that never should have happened, NJIT lost at Marquette earlier in the season by just five points so it is far from a bad team. Look for Michigan to take its frustrations out on an overmatched Eastern Michigan team. The Eagles opened the season 7-0 before losing their first game of the season on Saturday at Dayton. They were able to cover the double-digit number but by just a point and they face the Wolverines at the wrong time. Eastern Michigan is no "guarantee game," but it's hard to imagine Michigan overlooking the Eagles after Saturday's loss. The Eagles will present a lot of the same similarities as Syracuse because of coaching connections but they do not have the same type of athleticism. The loss to NJIT shows that Michigan isn't going to put up the best offensive efficiency in the nation a third year in a row, but Michigan ranks 13th so this is still a very strong team. Going back, Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a loss while the Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. 10* (722) Michigan Wolverines |
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12-09-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 203.5 | Top | 105-114 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is the first meeting this season between two of the top teams in the Western Conference and while everything points to the over, the value is clearly the other way. Dallas has gone over the total in five straight games and seven of its last eight while Memphis has gone over in two of its last three with the last missing by just a bucket. This is a rarity however for the Grizzlies to see a total this high and the only time they had one above 200, it stayed under rather easily. Obviously this number is lower than what Dallas has seen a lot of the time but it is still very high against a slower team. Both teams have excellent situations on their side as we play the under involving road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after five or more consecutive overs and averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg. This situation is 30-8 (78.9 percent) to the under since 1996. Second, we play the under involving home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 that are outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more four straight games. This situation is 79-42 (65.3 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (705) Dallas Mavericks/(706) Memphis Grizzlies |
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12-09-14 | Vancouver Canucks v. Montreal Canadiens -118 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
We played on Montreal last Friday in Chicago and it lost a tough one 4-3 against the Blackhawks. That was the second straight loss for the Canadiens and we thought about backing them Saturday but didn't since it was a back-to-back and just a bad spot in general. Now Montreal is back home after playing its last four games on the road as well as seven of its last eight. The lone home game came against Buffalo and that resulted in a loss so it not only wants to snap its current three-game slide but make up for that travesty. Additionally, the Canadiens will be out for some payback following a loss in Vancouver earlier this season in overtime. Vancouver lost two nights ago in Ottawa in overtime which was its second straight loss following a 3-1 start to this roadtrip. While the Canucks will be out to break the losing skid, finishing off a seven-game roadtrip and just getting home is at the forefront of a lot of them and this is typically a bad spot for teams. Here we play against underdogs against the money line after two or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after three or more consecutive losses. This situation is an awesome 285-126 (69.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (10) Montreal Canadiens |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Falcons +14 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 37-43 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Waiting on the weather in Green Bay is an absolute must before putting out anything and while the weather tonight will be cold with a chance of snow, there is nothing extreme going to take place that can affect a football game. The Packers are playing great right now as they have won four straight games and eight of their last nine and are now a half-game ahead of Detroit in the NFC North. This line is overinflated however based on the recent run, the Packer name and the fact that Atlanta struggles outside the dome. The one thing I cannot overlook is the fact that Green Bay is outgaining opponents by just 11.2 ypg on the season. The Falcons can take over first place in the NFC South by a full game with a victory here and winning outright is not out of the question. The defense is the concern but after allowing 28.4 ppg through their first seven games, they have allowed just 20 ppg over their last five games. Offensively, the Falcons have the weapons to keep up and the return of Roddy White tonight to compliment Julio Jones would be huge. Atlanta falls into a great contrarian spot as we play against favorites of 10.5 or more points after three or more consecutive wins, in the second half of the season. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 8-0 ATS after allowing six or more yppl in two consecutive games. 10* (179) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-08-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -1 | Top | 108-92 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
We lost with Denver yesterday as the Hawks won their sixth straight game while covering their third game in a row. Atlanta moved to 9-2 at home and it hits the road where it is 4-4 on the season which isn't horrible but we are now getting value in going against them. The Hawks are tied with Washington in the NBA Southeast Division but they are in a tougher than expected spot tonight. The Pacers are favored in this one which is a surprise to some as they are riding a four-game losing streak but all of those losses came on the road and they have been a good bounceback team when it comes to covering as they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. The Pacers will also be out for some revenge as they lost the first meeting against Atlanta by 10 points which was their first road game of the season. Indiana is 8-0 ATS this season following a non-conference game and while Atlanta is 9-1 in the role of favorite, it is just 2-5 straight up as an underdog and I expect the winning streak to come to an end along with the losing streak that the Pacers currently possess. 10* (504) Indiana Pacers |
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12-08-14 | Yale +9.5 v. Florida | Top | 47-85 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The thinking here for most will be that Florida is coming off two straight losses and it is in a good spot to bounce back against an overmatched opponent. Well tell that to Connecticut. The Huskies were coming off a losses against West Virginia and Texas and while they should have been motivated for a win, they ended up losing to Yale on Friday by a point. Going back to Florida, the Gators lost at Kansas by six points which came after a loss to North Carolina a week earlier. The loss to the Jayhawks was devastating however as Florida blew an 18-point lead in the second half so coming back from that will be tough just two days later. Could Yale be in for a letdown? It is definitely possible but this is not a typical Yale team as they are a very solid and experienced team that is going to contend with Harvard in the Ivy League. The Bulldogs play solid defense and rebound well and like Florida, they play at a slow pace which is even better for a significant underdog. Here, we play against teams after scoring 65 points or less four straight games, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season. This situation is 57-29 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1997. Also, Yale is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less while Florida is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (515) Yale Bulldogs |
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12-07-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Oakland Raiders +9.5 | Top | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 41 m | Show |
After winning their first game of the season, Oakland got destroyed last week in St. Louis which was an expected letdown based on that big victory over the Chiefs. No one thought it would be that bad though as the Raiders went down 52-0 although they were outgained by just 104 total yards as five turnovers did them in. Now they head back home to face their most hated rival outside of their division and it could very well be their most hated rival overall. San Francisco lost at home on Thanksgiving to Seattle and it was a pretty ugly game as it was outgained by 215 total yards and this team is just not playing well right now and should not be laying a number this big. The 49ers are 3-3 over their last six games and the three wins were by a combined 13 points and those wins were against teams all with losing records. Two situations favor the Raiders as well. We play on teams that are averaging between 14.5 and 18 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing 40 points or more last game. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1983. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season. This situation is 82-38 ATS (68.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (174) Oakland Raiders *ENFORCER |
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12-07-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Arizona Cardinals +1 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
Arizona returns home following two straight road games and two straight losses. And the Cardinals did not look good in either one as they dropped to 3-3 on the road but bring in a perfect 6-0 home record to try and stop their skid. They have just a one game lead over Seattle in the NFC West so this is no doubt a big game. It is a big game for the Chiefs as well which are also losers of two straight games but they have not been playing good for a while. Kansas City has been outgained in five straight games and are getting outgained on the season by 20.7 ypg. The Chiefs are one of only three teams in the NFL with a winning record that are getting outgained. Two situations are on our side as well as first, we play on home underdogs or pickems after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in December games. This situation is 95-54 ATS (63.8 percent) since 1983. Second, we play against favorites after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games going up against an opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. This situation is 89-46 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Arizona is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less and Bruce Arians is 9-0 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in games he has coached. 10* (172) Arizona Cardinals *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR |
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12-07-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Denver Broncos OVER 47.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -103 | 55 h 20 m | Show |
Buffalo kept its playoff chances alive with a win last week against Cleveland to make it two straight victories which can be credited to the defense. The Bills allowed just 13 points in those two games and going back, they have gone under the total in four straight games but that changes this week as they are facing one of the best offenses in the NFL and even more so on its home field. The Broncos defeated the Chiefs last week in a game that stayed below the number, the second straight road game that fell below the total. Denver now returns home where the over has cashed four straight times thanks to an offense that has averaged 39.3 ppg in those games and even though the Bills defense has been great, this is not the spot for that to continue. Denver is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games against teams with a winning record while going 16-4 to the over in its last 20 games after playing its last game on the road. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 6-0 to the over in its last six road games following one or more consecutive wins with an average scoring being 57.5 ppg in those games. This includes 66 points being scored with the Jets after a win over Minnesota earlier this season. 10* Over (169) Buffalo Bills/(170) Denver Broncos |
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12-07-14 | Denver Nuggets +5.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 84-96 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Atlanta is playing its best basketball of the season as it has won five straight games including the last two on the road against the Heat and Nets. Because of the recent run, I feel this line is inflated and we can base that on the fact they were favored by just a point more in their last home game against the Celtics. Denver is better than the Celtics by more than a point and we can base that simply on the conference affiliations. The Nuggets have dropped two straight games including a blowout in Washington on Friday by 30 points. It was easily their worst loss of the season but they are still 7-3 over their last 10 games and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss while going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the Eastern Conference. Conversely, the Hawks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against the Western Conference while going 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games following two or more consecutive wins. The Nuggets also fall into a great league angle as we play on road teams averaging 103 or more ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 81-35 ATS (69.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (803) Denver Nuggets |
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12-07-14 | Tulsa v. Arkansas-Little Rock +5.5 | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
We played on Tulsa and won in its last game against Creighton as it was in a great spot coming off a pair of blowout losses with the Bluejays playing their first true road game of the season. Now the Golden Hurricane are back on the road where they are 0-2 but are the favorites nonetheless. We played against the Trojans on Thursday and while they did lose, they were able to cover the number by a bucket. Now they are back home where they are undefeated on the season and getting a very good number. The Golden Hurricane has been great season on defense, holding opponents to just 59.4 ppg, but the Trojans will provide one of the biggest tests of the season. Arkansas-Little Rock comes in averaging 76.5 ppg and has six players averaging at least 7.2 ppg and that type of balance can be an issue for a lot of opposing teams. Looking at the home and road splits shows that the home team is a perfect 11-0 in Tulsa and Arkansas-Little Rock games this season not including neutral site games. The home team has won all seven meetings since this series started in 2006 while the host has covered six of those games. There has been a home underdog only once in the seven games and that happened to be the Trojans which won outright back in 2010. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog while Tulsa has failed to cover in their last four road games. 10* (830) Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans |
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12-07-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 17 m | Show |
This is a horrible spot for St. Louis. The Rams defeated Denver at home, battled San Diego on the road in a tight loss and then pummeled the Raiders last week. Now they hit the road again against a team they could care less in playing with a home game against rival Arizona on deck. And they are favored on top of it. You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time they were road favorites and this season, they are 0-4 when coming off a win. The Redskins are back home following a stretch of four road games over their last five and they only won once in this span, an overtime win at Dallas. Clearly Washington is not playing well but at 3-9, they are actually better than that record. They have outgained opponents by 26.2 ypg and along with New Orleans, are the only teams in the NFL with losing records that are outgaining opponents. The difference obviously is turnovers where they are -7 but the Rams are not great in that category either at just +2. Here, we play against favorites with a winning percentage between .400 and .499 after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, playing a losing team. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (166) Washington Redskins |
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12-06-14 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State UNDER 52.5 | Top | 0-59 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 10 m | Show |
It was a very unfortunate break for Ohio St. when quarterback J.T. Barrett was lost for the season last week against Michigan. Now down to their third quarterback, the Buckeyes will not be able to win in a shootout and they will have to try and dictate the pace of this game for them to have their best shot at winning. We are still seeing a rather high total though and part of that is due to the recent history as Wisconsin has gone over in two of its last three games with a push and Ohio St. has gone over 10 of its last 11 games. So not only is there value in the number based on the contrarian angles but also the way we should see the game play out. The Badgers will try to grind out a win here by pounding the ball with running back Melvin Gordon, who rushed for 151 yards and one touchdown in last week's 34-24 win over the Golden Gophers. Ohio St. knows it has to stop the run which it has done a good job of this season. On the other side, the Wisconsin defense is ranked No. 2 in the nation because of an aggressive 3-4 scheme. The Badgers allow just 260.3 ypg and 16.8 ppg and while Cardale Jones is a capable backup quarterback, he will not be able to take control of the game against this defense. With a lot of running from both sides, the clock runs and this one stays under the total. 10* Under (127) Wisconsin Badgers/(128) Ohio St. Buckeyes |
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12-06-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Chicago Bulls +3 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Golden St. has won 11 straight games and is off to a franchise best 16-2 while that record is tops in the NBA. The Warriors have benefitted from a relatively easy schedule however as they have played the 23rd ranked slate in the league but because of the winning run they are on, they are hitting a place they have not been before. They have won all eight games as a road favorite this season but seven of those were against losing teams while the other came against a Houston team that was not at full strength. Chicago meanwhile is back to full strength or at least close to it with Taj Gibson being the lone player that has not been playing on a consistent basis. The Bulls rolled at Charlotte on Wednesday which means they have had ample time to rest and get ready for this one. They have yet to be a home underdog this season which is not a surprise but their 2-4 home record is a surprise compared to their 10-3 record on the road. Chicago has lost its last two games at home but those came in a span of three weeks as they have not been able to get into a rhythm at home due to having to vacate the United Center because of the circus. This is the start of their first three-game homestand of the season and we will see a great effort because of it. 10* (506) Chicago Bulls |
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12-06-14 | Missouri +14.5 v. Alabama | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -105 | 73 h 56 m | Show |
Alabama can get into the College Football Playoff with a victory here so this is a big game for obvious reasons. The Crimson Tide have been very inconsistent this season though as they have annihilated some teams while letting others stick around when they probably shouldn't. They are just 4-8 ATS which shows how much the linesmakers tend to overvalue Alabama and that is the case here and even more so away from home. Missouri has quietly put together a fantastic season, going 10-2 and they come into this game riding a six-game winning streak. The Tigers never should have lost to Indiana early in the season and their only bad game of the season came against Georgia. They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 719 yards and while Alabama presents the biggest challenge, they have the strong defense that can keep this close. Missouri is tied for sixth in FBS with 3.33 sacks per game behind ends Shane Ray, who has an SEC-best 14, and Markus Golden (nine) and has five players with at least three QB stops. Missouri is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against teams with a winning record while going 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Tide are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (123) Missouri Tigers |
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12-06-14 | Oklahoma State +20 v. Oklahoma | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 72 h 25 m | Show |
It hasn't been the typical strong season for Oklahoma St. and it is in a bad rut right now but at 5-6, it can still become bowl eligible with a victory here so this game is huge. The linesmakers are not giving the Cowboys much of a shot here but in a big rivalry game, anything can happen and we are getting a generous number to work with. This is the highest pointspread in this series since 2001 when Oklahoma St. was getting 27.5 points. This is a 30-point swing from last season and the separation between these two teams has not gotten that big to warrant a line swing like that. Oklahoma is 8-3 on the season but coming in as a National Championship contender, it has been a disappointing season for the Sooners as well. In their last game, they were favored by 25 points over Kansas and it is safe to say that that the Jayhawks are just five points worse than the Cowboys. Here we play against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a rushing defense allowing 3.25 or less rushing ypc, after allowing 1.0 or less rushing ypc last game. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Oklahoma St. is 13-3 ATS after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. 10* (119) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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12-06-14 | Wisconsin Green Bay +10.5 v. Miami (FL) | Top | 68-55 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
The Phoenix are coming off a blowout loss at Georgia St. on Thursday but I like them to bounce back here as they were very possibly in lookahead mode to the Hurricanes. It was a bad loss but this game make up for that. Green Bay should be a good enough team this season to compete for an at-large big into the NCAA Tournament should it not get the automatic berth from the Horizon Conference. After already losing to Wisconsin, this is a chance for a quality win and pretty much the last chance. Miami is off to a perfect 8-0 start and after a couple closer than expected wins, they took care of a good Illinois team on Tuesday by nine points. Now Miami is laying a decent sized number against a quality team that may not seem too quality by some based on their last game. The Phoenix have one of the best players in the country that many do not know about on guard Keifer Sykes, the reigning Horizon Player of the Year. The Phoenix are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game while going 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 20 points. 10* (535) Green Bay Phoenix |
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12-06-14 | Oklahoma State v. South Carolina +2 | Top | 49-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
South Carolina comes into this game with a 4-3 record but it is a better team than the record shows as those three losses have come by 4, 3 and 5 points so any better closing and the Gamecocks could have a better record. Those last two losses came in Charleston on a neutral floor while its lone home loss came against Baylor. Oklahoma St. looks to be the superior team based on its perfect 7-0 record with all of those wins coming by at least 13 points. The completion has not been very good however as the Cowboys have played a schedule ranked 323rd in the nation which is out of 351 teams at this level. They did play two games in Las Vegas but this is their first true road game of the season and it will be against a South Carolina team in need of a quality win as well as one playing with some serious revenge following a 27-point beatdown in Stillwater a season ago. The Gamecocks are not ranked much lower than Oklahoma St. in many trusted power rankings so the fact they are getting points is a bit of a surprise. Additionally, the Cowboys are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 road games following three or more consecutive home games. 10* (522) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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12-05-14 | Miami Heat v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 195.5 | Top | 85-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
Miami and Milwaukee have been involved in some high scoring games of late and the defense can be to blame but I think we see better efforts from both teams on that side of the ball Friday night. Milwaukee has gone over the total in four straight games namely because of the defense that has allowed 107, 111 and 117 points over their last three games. It was a pace issue for the most part as Milwaukee, which allows an average of just 82 attempts per game, allowed 87 and 92 in two of those games. Don't expect that tonight as Miami is the slowest paced team in the NBA as it shoots a league low 73.2 shots per games and allows a league low 76.8 attempts per game. The Heat have gone over in two straight, catching two very hot shooting teams while allowing just 72 and 74 shots. All of this leads to a great situation as well as we play the under involving one team after two or more consecutive overs going up against an opponent after four or more consecutive overs. This situation is 107-57 (65.2 percent) to the under the last five seasons. Additionally, the under is 9-1 in the Heats last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 6-2-1 in the Bucks last nine home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Under (819) Miami Heat/(820) Milwaukee Bucks |
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12-05-14 | Montreal Canadiens +165 v. Chicago Blackhawks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is a great example of a team being overvalued because of public perception and name as Chicago should not be favored this high against a very quality team. The Blackhawks are certainly in the much stronger conference and they are sitting on 33 points which is currently tied for sixth place in the Western Conference as they are riding a four-game winning streak. The last three have come by identical 4-1 scores so Chicago is rolling for sure but finds itself in a tough spot tonight as it has to travel to Nashville tomorrow for a revenge game against the Predators. Montreal started the season great but it has struggled of late, losing four of its last five games with two losses coming by one goal and another in a shootout. Still, the Canadiens have 36 points which puts them into a tie for third place in the Eastern Conference. They were at Minnesota last time out and were a +127 underdog and are now a +160 underdog which is tough to figure out considering the Blackhawks and Wild are not that much different in terms of strength with the latter actually being a better home team. Here, we play on teams against the money line in the first half of the season that are revenging a home loss of two goals or more, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .700. This situation is 41-17 (70.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (5) Montreal Canadiens |
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12-05-14 | Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green +7 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 40 m | Show |
We won with Northern Illinois on Saturday as it defeated Western Michigan to gain a berth into the MAC Championship. The Huskies have won six straight games so they are obviously playing their best football of the season but now they go from more than a touchdown underdog to a touchdown favorite and I think that is too big of a move. Bowling Green ended the season with two straight losses but it meant little as the Falcons had already won the MAC East and while they didn't want to lose last time out at home on Senior Day, you could tell the intensity wasn't there. Bowling Green would like nothing more than to win this championship for a second straight season. Last year, No. 14 Northern Illinois entered seeking a third straight championship and in the conversation regarding a Bowl Championship Series game. Bowling Green won in a 47-27 rout, and Northern Illinois was relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl, where it lost 21-14 to Utah State. The Huskies would like payback but it isn't going to easy. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1992. 10* (106) Bowling Green Falcons |
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12-05-14 | Wyoming v. SMU -4.5 | Top | 53-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
It is about time for SMU to put together a quality game against a quality opponent for the first timer this season. The Mustangs have played three solid teams and lost all three of those games including one here on their home floor against Arkansas. They did following that loss up with two wins over Texas Southern and Monmouth but neither were great wins which is something they desperately need tonight. This is the fourth game of a seven-game homestand before SMU travels to Michigan so winning out is vital. Wyoming is off to a perfect 7-0 start and it has yet to travel out of Laramie as it has played all seven games on its home floor with only four of those being lined games which shows the level of competition it has faced. The Cowboys are a solid team no doubt as they were picked to finish fifth in the MWC by Athlon Sports but I still expect this team to struggle on the highway as last season, they went 14-4 at home and just 4-10 on the road. The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS and because of the lack of success in covering, we are getting a decent number tonight. Going back, Wyoming is 10-23 ATS in its last 33 road games off two or more consecutive home wins. 10* (834) SMU Mustangs |
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12-04-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears OVER 51 | Top | 41-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
After going over the total in seven of the first eight weeks, Thursday nights have flipped the switch as four of the last five Thursday primetime games have stayed below the total. We are going against the recent run tonight as we waited on this until weather conditions were confirmed and it is going to be a good night in Chicago. We played on the Dallas under last Thursday which brought it to 4-2-1 to the under at home but the road has been a different story. Not only are the Cowboys winning on the road with a 5-0 record but the last four games on the highway have gone over the total and it has been the offense that has triggered that by scoring 34, 30, 31 and 31 points and after a horrible showing last week against the Eagles, I expect that offense to bounce back against a horrendous Bears defense. Chicago went over the total last Thursday in Detroit and while its last three home games have stayed under, this is easily the best offense it has seen at home over this stretch. Dallas is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after a loss by 14 or more points as a home favorite while the Bears are 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the over is 5-0 in the Cowboys last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and the over is 6-0 in the Bears last six games against teams with a winning record. 10* Over (101) Dallas Cowboys/(102) Chicago Bears |
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12-04-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. New York Knicks +8 | Top | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
The Cavaliers seemed to have finally turned the corner as they have won four straight to go from two games under .500 to two games over .500. all four of those wins came at home however and this is the first road game for Cleveland since November 21st. They are 3-3 on the road this season and their six road games are tied for the fewest in the NBA so the schedule has been in their favor which comes as no surprise. The Knicks are trending the other way as they have dropped five straight games and seven of their last eight to fall to 4-15 on the season. While it has been a rough first quarter of the season for New York, this is a spot that we can base on play on them as the national television spotlight tends to pick up the play of even the worst teams in the league. This is a revenge game for Cleveland as it lost its season opener to the Knicks but this line seems to be taking that into consideration as this is by far the biggest spread the Knicks have gotten at home and this is the most Cleveland has been favored by on the road so we are presents with some great value. The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games while the Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record. 10* (502) New York Knicks |
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12-04-14 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Missouri State -6.5 | Top | 68-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Missouri St. is back home for the first time since November 19th and is hungry for a dominating performance, something that has yet to happen this season. The Bears were 2-0 when they hit the road, then lost at Texas Tech and dropped two of three, with the win a closer-than-it-should-be one over D-II Alaska-Anchorage, in the Great Alaska Shootout. When all said and done, Missouri St. is 0-5 against the number this season and that puts the Bears in a good spot here with the travel edge as well as the line value based on recent results. On the other side, Arkansas-Little Rock is on the road for the first time since November 18th so the Trojans are on the opposite end of the home/road dichotomy. They have won their last three games and while they were at home, they were not good performances as they defeated UMKC and CS Northridge by just five and six points respectively while defeating Central Arkansas by less than what they should have. I feel all of this sets up for a big Missouri St. victory. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games following three or more consecutive road games while the Trojans are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games coming off two or more consecutive home wins. 10* (514) Missouri St. Bears |
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12-04-14 | NY Islanders v. Ottawa Senators +108 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Ottawa lost a tough one on the island on Tuesday as it fell in overtime against New York and Thursday presents a great opportunity for immediate payback. The Senators have dropped their last three games, all coming on the road and going back, they have lost nine of their last 12 games. The schedule has been tough of late as eight of their last 10 games have come on the road and while home ice has not been outstanding, Ottawa is a respectable 5-5 at home. The Islanders have won two straight games and seven of their last eight to remain tied with Pittsburgh in the Metropolitan Division while sitting just a point behind Tampa Bay for first place in the Eastern Conference. They have a home date with St. Louis on deck so there is a lookahead possibility here as well. The Senators are 5-2 in their last seven home games following a road trip of seven or more days and fall into a great contrarian angle as we play against road teams after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, playing 8 or more games in 14 days. This situation is 102-57 (64.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (58) Ottawa Senators |
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12-03-14 | Wichita State v. Utah -2.5 | Top | 68-69 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Many will remember the success that Wichita St. had last season as it went 35-1 and that success helped at the betting window as well as the Shockers went an incredible 25-7-1 ATS in their lined games. They are again off to a solid start as they have covered both of their lined games this season but now comes the biggest test so far. The fact that Wichita St. is an underdog here should be a red flag for the numerous public contingent that is backing the Shockers. This is the biggest test for Utah as well but it was tested at San Diego St. earlier this season and went down by just four points. Head coach Larry Krystkowiak has done an incredible job here as he has taken a team that won six games in 2011-12 to a Pac 12 contender and the Utes are favored for a reason. This is a tough environment to play in for visiting teams and Utah is 15-1 ATS in its last 16 games off a home win while going 0-0 ATS in its last 10 games after a win by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Utes fall into a great situation where we play against road teams as an underdog or pickem that are averaging 76 or more ppg going up against allowing 63 or fewer ppg, after three straight wins by 10 points or more. This situation is 90-45 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (780) Utah Utes |
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12-03-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Houston Rockets +5 | Top | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Rockets center Dwight Howard who was listed as doubtful so there is no reason the line could not have been posted during all openers. We played on the Rockets in their last game in Milwaukee and that winner came right after a home loss against the Clippers so they will be out to rectify that home defeat. In addition, Houston will be motivated to take out one of the best teams in the NBA to move within a game of the division lead and also to get some payback following a 26-point loss in Memphis last month. That game was even worse than the final indicated as the Rockets trailed by as many as 36 points. The Grizzlies have won five straight games and their only two losses on the season have come by a total of five points so they are clearly playing at a high level. This is their fourth straight road game and they have a home date with San Antonio on deck for Friday so there could definitely be a lack of focus for this win ending their roadtrip. Here, we play against road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having covered four of their last five against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 62-27 ATS (69.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (714) Houston Rockets |
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