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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-16-17 | Diamondbacks +179 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 179 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
We lost with Arizona yesterday as a 4-4 game was blown open by the Dodgers in the late innings but we come back with the Diamondbacks again today. Arizona has dropped three straight after a 7-2 start and look to get back into the series which concludes tomorrow night. The Dodgers are now 7-5 and have won consecutive games only twice. The offense has been either hit or miss as they have scored seven or more runs five times while scoring three runs or fewer five times. Taijuan Walker has been pretty average in his first two starts with Arizona after coming over from Seattle but he is a very solid pitcher. His ERA may not show it but a career WHIP of 1.22 in 64 starts shows that and he can continue that against an inconsistent Los Angeles offense. Rich Hill is coming off the 10-day disabled list because of a blister on his pitching hand and that is an injury that is one of the worst for pitchers. He is obviously good enough to throw but a blister can come back in an instant and how far he can go here is undetermined. Great underdog price on Arizona. 10* (913) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-16-17 | Phillies +159 v. Nationals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
The Phillies snapped a four-game slide with a 4-2 victory yesterday and have a chance to win their second series of the season, both against Washington. The Nationals have been a very average 6-5 and have actually been outscored by four runs, one of two teams in the National League with a winning record and a negative run differential. Philadelphia turns to Jerad Eickhoff who has been brilliant with his short time with the Phillies. In 43 career starts, he has a 3.37 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and he is a name not many people have even heard of. This includes a 1.98 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in two starts this season, both quality outings, and he has allowed three runs or less in 29 of 35 starts going back to last season. Washington has not been able to solve him as he has a 2.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three starts, all quality performances. Gio Gonzalez has also tossed a pair of quality outings to open the season but we are certainly not sold on that. He has had a rough couple of years in Washington and he has been the Nationals least profitable pitcher over that stretch with a -9 profit loss. 10* (953) Philadelphia Phillies |
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04-15-17 | Diamondbacks +157 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
Arizona was unfortunate as it had to face Clayton Kershaw last night and the ace did his job in dominating fashion yet again. The Diamondbacks have dropped three of four on this roadtrip but are in good position to bounce back tonight. The Dodgers have been average and are laying too big of a number here. Kenta Maeda was fantastic in his rookie season last year, anchoring a banged-up rotation all season long before fading down the stretch and disappearing in the postseason. Many of his late-season struggles in 2016 were attributed to fatigue but he is off to a rough start this season being unable to get through batting lineups. In 2016, Maeda pitched 6-plus innings 13 times in 32 starts and only twice did he complete seven innings and he has yet to make it into the sixth inning this season. Arizona is hitting .304 against righties this season which is the best in baseball. The Diamondbacks turn to Patrick Corbin who at one point in his career was looking like a dominant pitcher but injuries set him back. He struggled through an awful 2016 season after returning from Tommy John surgery but after a very solid spring, he won a job in the rotation and is coming off a quality outing over the Indians to pick up his first win of the season. The Dodgers are hitting just .207 against left-handed pitching and going back, they are 1-10 in their last 11 games against left-handed pitching. 10* (963) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-15-17 | Bucks +7 v. Raptors | Top | 97-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Milwaukee is one of the more dangerous lower seeds in the NBA playoffs and Toronto got a tough break with this first round matchup. The Raptors locked down the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference following four straight wins to end the regular season. They are deserving of this spot and arguably should be a higher seed but even with that, they are overpriced against a team that closed the season strong after a pretty bad start. The encouraging thing from the Bucks standpoint is that they went 14-4 in March and were 21-15 overall after their most recent loss to Toronto. Toronto rolled over Milwaukee in the first three meetings this season but this is a different Bucks team now as Khris Middleton was not around for those first three games. He is the key for Milwaukee heading into the playoffs as he certainly showed his rust at times after coming back from a torn hamstring but his playoff experience is vital. The Bucks pressure defense is notorious for giving up wide open shots after multiple perimeter swings but that is not the Raptors game however, as they rank dead last in the NBA in assists per game. They have a solid home court advantage but are just 12-7 over their last 19 games here. 10* (503) Milwaukee Bucks |
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04-15-17 | Astros v. A's +138 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The Astros took the opener of this series last night to make it three straight wins and take a one-game lead in the American League West. They got a great outing from ace Dallas Keuchel but are actually favored at a higher price today which is way too aggressive. Oakland is off to an up and down start at 5-6 but it is hard to pass up on them today despite what looks like a pitching mismatch. Lance McCullers takes the mound for Houston and he has posted a pair of quality outings to open the season thanks to solid command. While it is encouraging, it cannot be ignored that he posted a 1.54 WHIP last season and is coming off an awful spring where he had a 7.31 ERA in 16 innings. Sean Manaea counters for Oakland and his season has not started as hoped as he has allowed nine runs in 11.1 innings but it is considered just a small roadblock. He is considered one of the top young pitchers in the organization after posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 25 games last season. He struck out 10 in his last start which was a career high and he has 20 career strikeouts in 21.1 innings against the Astros over four starts. He has posted a 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in those four outings including a stretch of 16.1 scoreless innings. Houston has won eight straight in this series going back to last season but that streak comes to an end Saturday. 10* (976) Oakland A's |
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04-14-17 | Tigers +156 v. Indians | Top | 7-6 | Win | 156 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The Tigers lost at home against Minnesota yesterday which snapped a three-game winning streak but we can expect a rebound here while getting a great number at the same time. Cleveland is off to an average start as it has dropped five of its last six games while scoring a total of 14 runs over that stretch. Daniel Norris takes the hill for Detroit and he dealt with injuries for most of last year and finished with a 4-2 record and a 3.38 ERA. He was only able to toss just over 69 innings last season but it became apparent that Norris had the chance to be something special. He made 13 starts and in those games, he allowed more than three runs not once which shows his consistency and if he can stay healthy, he is a star in the making. In his first start this season, he allowed three runs in 6.1 innings against Boston and while this is his first road start, he has never lost on the road as he is 6-0 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 19 career road games. The Indians counter with Trevor Bauer who was roughed up in Arizona in his season opener and is now in a very tough spot trying to bounce back. He has been average at home throughout his time here and he faces a nemesis as the Tigers have owned him. Bauer has a 6.89 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 10 games against Detroit which includes an 11.42 ERA in four starts over the last two seasons. 10* (915) Detroit Tigers |
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04-14-17 | Cardinals +142 v. Yankees | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Yankees have won four straight games following a three-game sweep over Tampa Bay to open the week. St. Louis looks to end that streak after salvaging the final game in Washington on Wednesday and put an end to an ugly 1-6 stretch. 2016 was a tough one for Michael Wacha after a great start to his career where he posted a 3.21 ERA in 2013-2015. He ballooned to a 5.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP last season after early struggles but he rebounded down the stretch and the start to this season has been promising. Wacha finished the spring with a 2.42 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 26 innings and he carried that into the regular season with six strong innings against the Reds where he allowed just one run on only three hits. His fastball velocity is back and his curveball has improved immensely according to catcher Yadier Molina. The Yankees send Masahiro Tanaka to the mound as he looks to rebound from a pair of bad outings to open the season. He has posted an 11.74 ERA and 2.61 WHIP over 7.2 innings and while a return home can help him out, he is having an issue with mechanics that actually goes back to spring training despite him posting very solid numbers. Typically, it is hard to go against him at Yankee Stadium but the situation here is a good one to do so as we can take advantage of a very good number. 10* (929) St. Louis Cardinals |
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04-14-17 | Pirates +165 v. Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 165 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
We lost with the Pirates yesterday in a tough way as they blew a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning and wasted a great start from Chad Kuhl who held the Red Sox to one run on five hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings. We will back them again today however as they are catching a very good number with their ace on the hill and of course a lot of that has to do with the public loving Cubs being overvalued. After a very rough outing to open the season against the Red Sox, Gerrit Cole rebounded nicely in his second start against the Braves, allowing three runs in three innings although he was unable to pick up the victory. A date against the Cubs may not seem like a good opportunity to keep going the right way but Cole has succeeded against them his entire career. He is 8-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 11 career starts which includes going 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven starts at Wrigley Field. Kyle Hendricks had a below average start in his first outing of the season as he allowed four runs in six innings against the Brewers. He has dominated at Wrigley throughout his career but this being his first start here this season, it is unsure what we will see which helps add to the value. 10* (901) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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04-13-17 | Pirates +138 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
We played against the Pirates in all three games against the Reds and they ended up getting swept as the offense managed just five runs total. Today presents a good opportunity to get the bats going and we have a solid starting pitching advantage based on where we are. This is a make-up game from last week and the way the rotation worked out favors Pittsburgh. Chad Kuhl takes the hill for the Pirates and he is coming off an average start against the Braves where he allowed two earned runs in five innings but the big struggle was issuing six walks, although two were intentional. Pittsburgh got the win as it was able to turn three doubles plays while Kuhl was on the hill which was not a fluke. The Pirates are an organization that preaches the importance of ground balls and Kuhl is a ground ball pitcher. Last season, he allowed just seven home runs, and he generated a 44.3 percent ground ball rate. All of this led to him posting a 3.95 FIP, 4.53 xFIP, and a 0.9 WAR in 2016. The Red Sox counter with Eduardo Rodriguez who is coming off a rough first outing against the Tigers and he is the perfect pitcher to help the Pirates get out of their funk. Rodriguez went 0-4 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in nine starts at Fenway Park last season with Boston going 1-8 and dropping nine units. 10* (971) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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04-13-17 | Twins +128 v. Tigers | Top | 11-5 | Win | 128 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
The Tigers have taken the first two games of this series and they head into Thursday with the best record in the American League. They have held the Twins to just four runs but their own offense remains an issue as they are hitting only .213 which is sixth worst in baseball. Minnesota opened 5-1 prior to this series and the Twins are expected to be one of the big turnaround teams this year after an awful 2016 season. The offense opened with 30 runs over those first six games and they look to get it going again this afternoon. After a successful stint in Washington, Jordan Zimmerman came over to Detroit last season and things did not go well. He posted a 4.87 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 2016 and he got hit pretty hard this spring despite what many thought him having good stuff. He pitched well against Boston in his first regular season start but he has struggled at Comerica Park last season where he posted a 7.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 10 starts. Minnesota turns to Phil Hughes who is coming off an injury-plagued 2016 season that ended in early June. He started this season well with a quality outing against the White Sox where he allowed just one run in six innings. He is not a big step down from Zimmerman at all yet this line is telling us differently. He has a comfort zone here as Hughes has a 2.91 ERA in nine career starts at Comerica Park. 10* (961) Minnesota Twins |
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04-12-17 | Kings +15.5 v. Clippers | Top | 95-115 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Must win situations can be over exaggerated and in those cases, lines are overinflated which is what we are seeing here. The situation is very simple for the Clippers, win and they claim the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference which guarantees home court advantage in their first round matchup against the Jazz. Utah hosts San Antonio and it needs to win and have Los Angeles lose to claim the No. 4 spot but that will not be easy as the Spurs are not resting key rotation players in order to maintain rhythm for the first-round. Another important aspect of that game is that the time was moved to 9:05 ET from the late time slot so should San Antonio win, the Clippers will know by halftime and likely sit starters the rest of the game. Sacramento won last night against Phoenix with a 129-point effort and it closes out another disappointing season tonight. The Kings have been shorthanded for a while now but they have gone 5-4 over their last nine games so they have actually holding their own down the stretch. Now, they are catching another inflated number based on the situation. Going back two weeks ago, Sacramento was getting a bucket less here and won that game outright against Los Angeles. The Clippers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the Kings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (727) Sacramento Kings |
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04-12-17 | Reds +150 v. Pirates | Top | 9-2 | Win | 150 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The public will once again be riding the Pirates tonight after losing the first two games of this series but we will be backing the Reds for a third straight game as the value is once again too good to pass up. Cincinnati is 6-2 which is a surprisingly good start after what looks to be a rebuilding season but both sides of the ball have been outstanding. The Pirates have been up and down and are below average in both hitting and pitching, posting a .224 average and 4.41 ERA. Amir Garrett gets the ball for the Reds and while no one has likely heard of him, they will soon enough. He was a top prospect in the system after getting drafted out of St. Johns and while he was pretty average in Rookie and A Leagues but over the last two years in the Minors, he posted a 2.50 ERA over 285 innings. Garrett won three games in spring training and displayed good control as he walked just six batters over 21.1 innings. He opened the regular season by tossing six shutout innings at St. Louis and now faces a Pittsburgh teams hitting a woeful .138 against lefties, tied for second worst in baseball. Ivan Nova counters for the Pirates and he is also coming off a solid first outing of the season as he allowed no earned runs in six innings against the Braves. He faces a much hotter offense this time around and the Reds are hitting .273 against righties which is seventh best in baseball. 10* (903) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-12-17 | Cardinals +184 v. Nationals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 184 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
Washington has won the first two games of this series thanks to an offense that has erupted for 22 runs after scoring a total of 26 runs in its first six games. It has been a rough start for the Cardinals which are 2-6 to open the season but they are catching a great number here as they try to snap a three-game skid. St. Louis gives the ball to Mike Leake who has been a very underrated pitcher throughout his career as in 203 career starts, he has a 3.97 ERA and 1.27 WHIP which are very solid numbers. Leake had a very good spring training with a 3.81 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 26 innings so his regular season debut was no surprise. He went eight innings and allowed just one run on six hits and he was very efficient by tossing just 92 pitches. Unfortunately, he did not get the win as his offense could not muster up a run for him. Leake has enjoyed success in his career against the heart of the Washington order and in one start in Washington last year, he posted a quality start by allowing just two runs in seven innings. This number is this big not only because of the Washington recent offense but because Max Scherzer is on the hill. He looked good in his season debut against the Phillies but that is the Phillies and while the St. Louis bats have been relatively quiet, they were able to rough up Scherzer in this park last season, tagging him for five runs in seven innings. Since Scherzer arrived two years ago in Washington, the Nationals are just 17-16 in his 33 home starts, resulting in -12.1 units. 10* (907) St. Louis Cardinals |
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04-11-17 | Reds +175 v. Pirates | Top | 6-2 | Win | 175 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
We won with the Reds last night as they were able to get to Tyler Glasnow as expected and despite a poor outing from their own starter Brandon Finnegan, the bullpen came to the rescue by not allowing a run or a hit over the last seven innings. While the bats have been up and down, they have scored 15 runs the last two games and the pitching has been spot on, allowing one run or less in four of seven games. One of those did not take place when Rookie Davis made his Major League debut but we can give him the benefit of the doubt. Davis allowed two Daniel Nava home runs which accounted for three of his four runs allowed so while hid debut was far from stellar, it was not horrendous. Interestingly, those two home runs had an average exit velocity of 100.3 mph but the other eight batted balls against him averaged only 85.7 mph. Jameson Taillon counters for the Pirates and he is coming off a solid season debut as he allowed no runs on five hits in seven innings against the Red Sox. He looks like he is a rising star but he is not quite there yet and a line this high is reserved for pitchers in that group. The Reds have now won five straight meetings in Pittsburgh and there is no reason they cannot extend it to six. 10* (957) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-11-17 | Padres +161 v. Rockies | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
San Diego won in Colorado in the series opener last night thanks to Wil Myers hitting for the cycle, the second Padre ever to do so. The Padres evened their record at 4-4 with three of those wins coming as significant underdogs. There is not a huge difference between these two teams yet the line is again telling us different which is largely based on the starters coming in and what happened in their season debuts. Jered Weaver did not have a good debut as a Padre as he allowed four runs on five hits in five innings. Two of those came from Yasiel Puig and unfortunately for Weaver, both were two-run home runs which accounted for 40 percent of the hits allowed and all four runs so the outing was not really as bad at first glance with the exception of two bad pitches. Antonio Senzatela will make his Coors Field debut on Tuesday following a very successful Major League debut. He went five innings at Milwaukee, allowing no runs, two hits and three walks with six strikeouts. That line is very similar to that of Weaver with the exception of the two home runs allowed by Weaver so it shows how numbers can be skewed by just two pitches. The Coors Field home advantage has diminished over the last few years so we catch great value with the road team. 10* (959) San Diego Padres |
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04-11-17 | Hornets v. Hawks -7.5 | Top | 76-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
The Hawks are coming off an epic comeback win over the Cavaliers on Sunday and we were unfortunately on the wrong side of that Cavaliers collapse. That was the third straight victory for Atlanta which followed a dreadful 2-9 run that put the team in jeopardy of actually falling out of the playoff picture. Now, the Hawks are very secure as they have clinched a spot and are one win away from locking down the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference. That would mean facing Washington in the first round and even though they lost the season series 3-1, two losses were by three and four points so they do match up well. Atlanta has not said whether it will rest any regulars for the final two games but we will likely see the starters tonight. Charlotte is riding a four-game losing streak following a loss in Milwaukee last night. This is the final game of the season for the Hornets as they are one of two teams not playing tomorrow, Denver being the other, and it is face to say they have cashed it in. Kemba Walker and Marco Belinelli both missed last night and in all likelihood, they will miss tonight with nothing to play for. Atlanta will be out to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Hornets as well and going back, the home team is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. 10* (502) Atlanta Hawks |
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04-10-17 | Wizards v. Pistons +2 | Top | 105-101 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Meaningless games late in the NBA season are sometimes hard to handicap because coaches handle these games differently as far as rotations and game plans. Normally, this would be a pretty meaningless regular season game. The Wizards are locked in as the fourth seed and the Pistons have been eliminated from playoff contention entirely. However, this is not your typical situation. This will be the Pistons final home game in The Palace at Auburn Hills before they move into Little Caesars Arena next season so emotions will be riding high tonight. Detroit won last night in Memphis but there is no concern about fatigue as the Pistons used a 10-man rotation with no one playing more than 27 minutes. They bring in a solid 24-16 record at home and want to close down the building with a victory. Washington lost to Miami on Saturday and Toronto won on Sunday to no longer have a shot at grabbing the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference so the Wizards should treat their last two games in a way to rest and get ready for the postseason. Washington starters have played more minutes together than any other unit in the NBA this season, and their performance in recent weeks has not been up to the standard they set earlier in the season. They have failed to cover four straight road games while the Pistons are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (708) Detroit Pistons |
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04-10-17 | Pacers v. 76ers +8 | Top | 120-111 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Indiana is still in a position where it has not locked down a playoff spot as it sits a game ahead of Chicago and Miami for seventh place in the Eastern Conference. While winning out is the way to get into the postseason, it is easier said than done for a team that struggles on the road and thankfully for the Pacers, their regular season finale is at home. Overall, this season, the home team is 56-24 in Indiana games which is by far the biggest home/road dichotomy in the NBA. The Pacers are just 4-8 as road favorites this season but this is the largest number they have to lay on the highway. The Sixers season was not a great one but they are moving in the right direction. They have struggled of late with six straight losses as injuries have played a big part in the recent struggles. It was tough because a lot of these players were gametime decisions and ended up not playing with hurts chemistry going into a game so at least now, they can prepare with who is actually going to be playing. Philadelphia has killed it as a home underdog this season, going 25-12 ATS while going 11-6 ATS at home against teams with a winning record. The Pacers are just 7-13 ATS on the road against losing teams and we should see a pretty inspired effort from the Sixers with this being their last home game of the season. 10* (702) Philadelphia 76ers |
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04-10-17 | Reds +129 v. Pirates | Top | 7-1 | Win | 129 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
The Reds are off to a solid 4-2 start after winning each of their first two series against the Phillies and Cardinals. Cincinnati remains on the road in Pittsburgh where it has been successful over the last few years including wins in four straight games at PNC Park. The Pirates are coming off a weekend sweep of the Braves but it was not easy as two of those were one-run victories including a walk-off and the other came by just two runs. They were medium sized favorites in all of those games and are again here but this one is definitely too high. Brandon Finnegan takes the hill for the Reds and he pitched a gem in his season opener as he went seven innings, allowing no runs on just one hit while striking out nine and walking one. It was not a big surprise as he had a solid 2016 season and in 234 career innings, he has a 3.69 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Pittsburgh turns to Tyler Glasnow who is making his first start of the season after having a start skipped last week. He won the fifth starter job after a decent spring but his real Major League experience is limited and not great as he posted a 4.24 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 23.1 MLB innings last year. Additionally, Glasnow walked five batters per nine innings or more at both Triple-A and the majors last season. 10* (907) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-09-17 | Cavs -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
This line came out late due to status of questionable starters on both sides but it is likely both teams will be at full strength. Cleveland had a comfortable lead over Atlanta on Friday but then was dismantled in the second half against the Hawks and lost by 14 points as a 15-point favorite to a team that was without four starters. With the Celtics win yesterday, the Cavaliers are just a half-game ahead of the Celtics in the Eastern Conference with only three games left so this has turned into a monster game. Atlanta has clinched a playoff berth so there is not as much on the line but it is still jockeying for playoff positioning with the Bucks and Pacers. The road team has won all three meetings this season in this series so the Cavaliers will have no issues, especially with this short number. A game at Miami follows tomorrow night so getting the lead back up to a game is imperative with Boston hosting Brooklyn tomorrow night. The Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win of more than 10 points while going just 1-7 in their last eight games following consecutive victories. 10* (503) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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04-09-17 | Cubs v. Brewers +169 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
After losing the opener of this series on Friday, the Cubs bounced back yesterday with an 11-6 victory. They are now 3-2 on the season and the focus may not all be there today as the anticipation of playing their home opener tomorrow will be prevalent. The Brewers will be out to avoid a 2-5 homestand before heading to Toronto for a series starting on Tuesday. So far the pitching has been hit or miss and they are big underdogs at home based on the pitching matchup today. Zach Davies got roughed up by the Rockies in his season opener as he allowed six runs in just 4.1 innings. He wins with his tremendous command but that was not on display in his opener but a rebound should be in play here. He faced the Cubs twice at home last year and allowed a total of just three runs over 13 innings, part of a very solid 2016 season so we can chalk up the effort on Tuesday as an aberration. Chicago sends Jake Arrieta to the hill and he is coming off a solid season debut against the Cardinals. He faced Milwaukee three times last season and he was not very dominant, posting a 4.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 16.2 innings. 10* (956) Milwaukee Brewers |
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04-08-17 | A's +163 v. Rangers | Top | 6-1 | Win | 163 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
After getting swept by the Indians to open the season, the Rangers picked up their first win last night against Oakland as they opened the game with eight runs in the first two innings and never looked back. They are heavily priced tonight to make it two straight but that is unjustified. Oakland split its opening series with the Angels before last night and they go back to the top of the rotation with Kendall Graveman. He was very solid in his season opener as he pitched six innings, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks while striking out seven. Graveman, was the top Oakland starter last season when Sonny Gray was out with an elbow strain. He finished 10-11 with 4.11 ERA but had stretches in which he was superb, going 9-2 with a 3.33 ERA from May 30 to Aug. 24. Yu Darvish counters for Texas and he struggled in his opener against the Indians, allowing four runs on four hits and five walks in 6.1 innings. He is already making a chance as he is moving from working on the first base side of the rubber to the third base side and after one start, that is something you do not want to hear as early tinkering is never a good thing. He is 3-9 with a 4.64 ERA in 14 starts against Oakland. 10* (923) Oakland A's |
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04-08-17 | Celtics -1.5 v. Hornets | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Typically, this could fall into one of those last home game scenarios with this being the final home game of the season for the Hornets. However, Boston has an eye on a bigger prize. While the chances may be slim to impossible, Boston still is alive for the top spot in the Eastern Conference following the loss last night by the Cavaliers despite Atlanta resting two key starters. Cleveland is idle tonight so the Celtics have no chance of scoreboard watching and will be out to snap a two-game slide and pull to within a half-game of the Cavaliers. Boston is 16-7 this season as a road favorite with this being a manageable price as it is 10-5 ATS when favored by fewer than three points. As mentioned, this is the final home game for the Hornets but final home games at the professional level compared to those in the collegiate lever are a lot different. The Hornets are still alive for a playoff spot but their chances of making it to that are a lot slimmer than Boston making it to the top of the conference. Charlotte has struggled in this spot all season as it is 0-5 as a home underdog while going 1-10 ATS as an underdog of fewer than five points. 10* (703) Boston Celtics |
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04-08-17 | Reds +162 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
The public will be loading up on the Cardinals following their third straight loss last night but there is no value in this team. St. Louis is being priced on the old team that found a lot of success and not the new team which quite frankly, is not very good. They have a solid pitching staff and the bats have the potential to be solid but this is still one of the worst defensive teams in the league and that is an overlooked factor. We are getting our first look at Michal Wacha this season and after producing three great seasons, he is coming off the worst of his career so the fact he is the fifth starter should be no surprise yet he is not priced like one. He will be opposed by Bronson Arroyo which is a name that has not been mentioned recently. He is returning to a Major League starting rotation for the first time since Tommy John and shoulder surgery took him out of the game in 2014. While this may be considered a red flag, he has said that he is pitching pain free for the first time since surgery and being back in Cincinnati only makes the journey back more special. 10* (901) Cincinnati Reds |
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04-07-17 | Thunder v. Suns +8 | Top | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
We played on Phoenix on Wednesday and it resulted in either a win, loss or push as the line fluctuated throughout the day. We will be backing the Suns once again as they are getting nearly the same number against the Thunder as they were getting against the Warriors and those two teams are nearly 20 games apart in the standings. As stated on Wednesday, the Suns are just playing out the string and are relying on some very young players to close out the season but that can be a very good thing, especially in a game against an elite team as they will no doubt be playing hard. Phoenix has lost 13 straight games but seven of the last 10 have come on the road and while it has lost eight straight home games, most have come within the number it is getting tonight. Oklahoma City is sitting in the No. 6 spot in the Western Conference and despite a very favorable remaining schedule, the chances of moving up are slim. The Thunder certainly will not be tanking with Russell Westbrook going for the MVP but they have no business laying this type of number on the road. They could be without Andrew Roberson tonight as he left the last game with a knee injury and he is their best lock down defender. The Suns are 14-5 ATS at home this season against teams with a winning record and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (516) Phoenix Suns |
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04-07-17 | Indians v. Diamondbacks +132 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 132 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Arizona took two of three against the Giants and it remains home to face another World Series contender. The Diamondbacks offense has started on fire as they have averaged 6.8 rpg and hope to keep that going here. The Indians are coming off a sweep in Texas as their offense has also gotten off to a great start. While many will see that firepower to continue here, we go contrarian with a pitcher than no one will want to be on. Shelby Miller is coming off a horrible 2016 season as he ended with a 3-12 mark and a 6.15 ERA in 20 starts. That also included an extended stay in the minors with Triple-A Reno. By his own admission, Miller arrived in camp this spring with a changed disposition and a chip on his shoulder. A heightened level of confidence was detected as well as a quieter disposition. He is poised for a big bounce back season. The Indians counter with Josh Tomlin who was up and down last season. He went 13-9 with a 4.40 ERA while allowing a .269 average. He limited his walks to just 20 and while that is normally a huge asset, this is a contact park and could actually be a bad thing at Chase Field. 10* (980) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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04-07-17 | Dodgers v. Rockies +131 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 131 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
The Rockies opened the season with a 3-1 series win in Milwaukee and is now back in Colorado for their home debut. The Dodgers are also off to a 3-1 start after taking it to the Padres at home and they were the worst road team in baseball last season as far as +/- units with that being based on their prices being overinflated. Colorado turns to Kyle Freeland who is making his Major League debut but it is unlike the typical debut. He is a local pitcher who grew up nearby so this one is certainly extra special. A strong spring (3.48 ERA, 19 strikeouts, six walks) helped Freeland earn a spot in the Colorado starting rotation following a strong run in the Minors where he posted a 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 51 starts. Freeland is untested but he does have one thing working in his favor as he is used to pitching at altitude. The Dodgers turn to Hyun-Jin Ryu who is a surprising large favorite. His return to the rotation ends a two-year trial that included more surgeries (one each on his shoulder and elbow) than big-league starts (one bad outing last July). He is tough to trust at this point and at this price. 10* (956) Colorado Rockies |
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04-06-17 | Wolves v. Blazers -6 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
Portland remains in the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference despite a pair of losses over its last two games. Both of those losses came on the road however where the Blazers are 16-25 and now they are back home and are in good position to lock down the final playoff spot. Their final four games are all at home which is a big advantage over Denver which has two games at home and two on the road. Portland had a six-game winning streak prior to these two losses with the first coming at Minnesota so there will be revenge on the table. Minnesota lost at Golden St. on Tuesday and it is fading down the stretch with a 3-8 record over its last 11 games. The Timberwolves have struggled on the road all season with an 11-26 record including a 1-8 stretch over their last nine games on the road. They have surprisingly not played well against the non-elite teams in the league as they have gone just 5-13 ATS in the highway against teams with a losing record. Minnesota is just 2-8-1 ATS over its last 11 games overall while the Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing straight up record. Portland hosts Utah and San Antonio in its next two games which makes this one a priority. 10* (712) Portland Trailblazers |
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04-06-17 | Mariners +145 v. Astros | Top | 4-2 | Win | 145 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
It has been a tough start to the season for Seattle as it has lost the first three games of this series by unfortunate circumstances. In Game One, start Felix Hernandez had to exit early with an injury, in Game Two, the Mariners lost 2-1 despite outhitting the Astros 7-5 and in Game Three last night, they lost in 13 innings on a three-run walk-off home run. They look to avoid the sweep tonight and turn to Ariel Miranda who is coming off an uneven spring training but has the ability to success for sure. Miranda showed flashes of dominance in 10 starts with Seattle last season enroute to a 3.54 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 40:18 K:BB ratio. One of his best starts came against the Astros where he went seven innings and allowed just two runs on three hits. The Astros counter with Joe Musgrove who made his first ever opening day roster. Musgrove got his first taste of major league action in 2016 in an August call-up, posting a 4-4 record with a 4.06 ERA in 11 games (10 starts). He showed flashes of why he is a top prospect but also showed signs of being not quite ready. Seattle avoids a 0-4 start on Thursday. 10* (921) Seattle Mariners |
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04-05-17 | Warriors v. Suns +7.5 | Top | 120-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Here we have another game with a delayed line and this one is based on both sides with the Suns waiting on the status of T.J. Warren who sat out the last game with an illness but is listed as probable. On the other side, it is the rest factor. Golden St. is coming off a 14-point win over Minnesota last night so playing the second of back-to-back games, with this one coming on the road, means some players may not travel. Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala have already been ruled and more could come although unlikely. The Warriors have a 3.5-game lead over San Antonio for first place in the Western Conference and with their last three games taking place at home, wrapping up the top spot seems like a formality at this point. The Suns are just playing out the string and are relying on some very young players to close out the season but that can be a very good thing, especially in a game against an elite team as they will no doubt be playing hard. Phoenix has lost 12 straight games but seven of the last nine have come on the road and while it has lost seven straight home games, most have come within the number it is getting tonight. The Warriors are just 5-15 ATS on the road this season against losing teams while the Suns are 14-4 ATS at home this season against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Suns have covered seven straight games against winning teams overall. 10* (514) Phoenix Suns |
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04-05-17 | Cavs v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 114-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
This is one of many games on the Wednesday slate that came out late due to a marginal injury and in this case, it is the status of Celtics guard Avery Bradley who is listed as probable after missing the last game. There is a lot on the line tonight as the winner of this game takes over first place in the Eastern Conference and while both teams have been downplaying the seedings, it is a huge factor. This one means more for Boston at this point as loss here not only knocks the Celtics down a game in the standings, but it would essentially be two games since they would lose the head-to-head three games to one. Boston has won two straight games, six of its last seven and nine of its last 11 to put itself into this spot. The Celtics has been awful as big favorites, going 0-12 ATS as favorites of eight or more points but they are 14-5 ATS as favorites of fewer than five points. The Cleveland struggles have been well documented but it has won three straight games but all of those came at home. The road has been a big problem as the Cavaliers are 3-7 in their last 10 road games and the three wins coming against teams not heading to the playoffs. They are 2-10 straight up and 3-9 ATS in 12 games as underdogs and it is still unclear if any player will rest tonight based on playing last night but either way, Cleveland is 0-5 straight up and ATS playing with no rest when going from home to the road. 10* (506) Boston Celtics |
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04-05-17 | Raptors v. Pistons -1 | Top | 105-102 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
We played against Toronto last night and will do so again tonight. The Raptors are now in a tie for third place in the Eastern Conference with Washington but there is also a tie for the top spot between Cleveland and Boston so jockeying for any sort of playoff position based on upcoming matchups is impossible. This is the third game in four nights as well as the fifth game in eight nights for the Raptors so fatigue is a possible issue. DeMar DeRozan played over 40 minutes last night so he could be reduced tonight similar to Sunday when he sat out the fourth quarter. After blowing a 19-point lead last night, Toronto might be struggling from a mental standpoint as well. The Pistons have lost nine of 11 games to fall mostly out of the playoff picture. They have lost to the Nets and Heat on shots at the buzzer. They lost at the Milwaukee Bucks in overtime on Friday, so it has been a tough stretch in loss column and mentally. The good news is that Detroit is still mathematically alive as it is 2.5 games behind Indiana for the eighth and final playoff spot with five games left. From the mental side, the last loss was Friday so having four days off is very big. The Pistons lost to Toronto here just over a couple weeks ago, being held to only 75 points so revenge is in play. Toronto is 0-5 this season in the second of back-to-back road games with no rest while the Pistons are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games. 10* (504) Detroit Pistons |
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04-05-17 | Pirates +170 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Boston took the opener of this series on Monday and after an off day, the Red Sox and Pirates are back on. Boston is by far the biggest public favorite today which comes as no surprise and the public is all over all favorites again as on Monday and Tuesday, -110 chalk or higher have gone 15-1. The underdogs will balance this out and we get a good price here. Pittsburgh turns to Jameson Taillon who is far from a household name but he is a solid young pitcher for the Pirates. He posted a great rookie campaign and perhaps his most significant achievement was showing that he is completely healthy again after missing so much development time due to injury, notably Tommy John surgery. He made 18 starts, showing a welcomed durability, while posting a 3.38 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Chris Sale makes his debut for the Red Sox as he is coming off another great season for the White Sox. Many believe this acquisition will take Boston over the top and while it very well could, the Red Sox debut certainly comes with some pressure. Despite a 17-10 record last season, Sale lost units because of the overinflated lines that come behind him. The Pirates are a solid team so getting a number this big is too good to pass up. 10* (979) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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04-05-17 | Marlins +147 v. Nationals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The Washington win on Monday was one of 15 out of 16 favorites of -110 or higher that have won over the last two days so the public is cleaning up early. We can expect this to start to revert itself and this is a good situation to be included in that. Miami blew a 2-0 lead in the series opener as the bullpen allowed four runs which was definitely a surprise and ruined a solid outing by starter Edinson Volquez. Tonight, the Marlins send one of their top offseason acquisitions to the hill as Dan Straily makes him Miami debut. Straily struck out 17 in 17.2 innings with just one walk this spring, and made his case to pitch near the top of the rotation. Acquired from the Reds in January, Straily came as advertised. With Cincinnati last year, he went 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 191.1 innings. He faced the Nationals twice and was solid, posting a 3.21 ERA and 0.64 WHIP, both games resulting in quality outings. He will be opposed by Tanner Roark who is coming off another great season but his mental game will be tested tonight. Last season, four of his 10 losses came at the hands of Miami. In six starts, Roark went 2-4 with 4.46 ERA and of the 66 earned runs allowed over 210 innings, 17 were surrendered to the Marlins. 10* (953) Miami Marlins |
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04-04-17 | Grizzlies +8 v. Spurs | Top | 89-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Memphis has clinched a playoff spot but now it is about positioning as the Grizzlies can still move up to the No. 6 spot which would avoid San Antonio and Golden St. in the first round. They have dropped five straight games on the road but this is their last road game of the season as they finish with four straight home games so they will be pretty fired up here. This is especially true after coming off a horrible loss against the Lakers while a win here also officially would keep them from sliding into the No. 8 position in the Western Conference. San Antonio is still alive for the top spot in the conference as it trails Golden St. by 3.5 games but catching them will not happen with four of the Warriors last five games taking place at home. The Spurs will likely be more concerned about minutes as they close out the regular season as heading into the playoffs fresh instead of worrying about playoff positioning has been most important for this team for years. While it is 30-8 at home, San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games against teams with a losing road record while failing to cover seven straight divisional games. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on one day of rest. 10* (715) Memphis Grizzlies |
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04-04-17 | Indians v. Rangers +141 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
Cleveland won its season opener last night as it took out Texas 8-5 despite a poor outing from ace Corey Kluber. The Indians were able to get to the Rangers bullpen as a 5-3 deficit was turned around with five runs in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. Now Cleveland comes in as a bigger favorite based on the number two arms in the rotation. Texas turns to Martin Perez who had some exceptional starts last season but was unable to stay consistent with a few poor outings here and there. Still, he posted 19 quality outings in 33 starts and he is coming off a solid spring with a 2.79 ERA in three starts. It does say something that he is the number two guy over Cole Hamels, the third time in four years he has been there which shows what expectations are. He feels poised for a breakthrough season, three years removed from Tommy John surgery. The Indians counter with Carlos Carrasco who was having a solid 2016 season but has it cut short. This will be his first start since he took a comebacker off the bat of Ian Kinsler last September that broke his hand. His hand appears to be fine, but he had some minor elbow issues throughout spring training so do not expect him to be stretched too far early on. 10* (912) Texas Rangers |
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04-04-17 | Raptors v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Following four consecutive losses, Indiana now finds itself on the outside looking in of the playoff picture as it sits in ninth place with just five games remaining. The Pacers continue to struggle on the road where they have dropped eight straight games but they have been much better at home with a 6-2 run to move to 26-12 on the season. They are the only team in the NBA to have more than 25 home wins and more than 25 road losses so the venue has dictated their season quite a bit. Toronto is three games behind Boston for first place in the Eastern Conference but catching the Celtics will be tough with four of their final five games taking place on the road. The Raptors have been a decent road team as they are 20-17 but the schedule has helped as 24 of those 37 games have come against losing teams. Indiana does fit into that category but they just fell into it during this current losing streak. The Pacers should be extra motivated as they will be out to avenge two losses this season which came after a seven-game loss to Toronto in the Conference Quarterfinals from last season. This is the first time Indiana has hosted Toronto since the sixth game of that series. 10* (706) Indiana Pacers |
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04-04-17 | Hornets v. Wizards -4 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Washington opened its five-game roadtrip with a pair of wins but closed it with three straight losses culminated by a loss on Golden St. on Sunday by 24 points. That is a big game heading into this one as the Wizards were not happy about the Warriors running the score up late in the game so there will be some extra juice going into tonight. Washington can still catch Toronto for the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference and the schedule is there to get it done as its final five games are all against losing teams. Charlotte remains in the playoff hunt as it has won three straight games to move to a game out of the final spot in the Eastern Conference. Two of those wins came on the road which is a bit of a surprise considering the Hornets have struggled on the highway this season with a 14-24 record. That is a problem against Washington which has motivation and the second best home record in the conference at 29-10. Additionally, Washington is 14-6 ATS when favored by fewer than five points while the Hornets are 1-9 ATS when getting fewer than five points. The Wizards have covered four of their last five games after a double-digit loss. 10* (708) Washington Wizards |
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04-03-17 | Mariners +139 v. Astros | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Both Seattle and Houston expect to contend in the American League West and they get the season started on Monday. Seattle improved by 10 games from 2015 and expectations are to bump that up more this season. The Mariners finished within 10 games of first place for the just the third time in 15 years and they led the division in run differential. Houston was a disappointment however as it finished two games behind the Mariners. The Astros will be counting on their offense once again but it is the starting rotation that needs to improve after a very bad 2016 season. Dallas Keuchel sported a 4.55 ERA in 2016 after winning the American League Cy Young in 2015. He won just nine games and he is difficult to back at a price like this and who he is going up against. Felix Hernandez is also coming off a disappointing season as he had a 3.82 ERA, his highest since his 2007 season. He battled injuries but came to spring training in much better shape so he should be in for a solid bouncer back season. He had a very solid spring training and additionally, he pitched well in the WBC, posting a 1.17 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over two starts. In his nine Opening Day starts, he is 5-0 with a 1.55 ERA and the Mariners have gone 8-1 in those games. 10* (963) Seattle Mariners |
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04-03-17 | Blazers v. Wolves -2 | Top | 109-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Portland holds a two-game lead over Denver for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference thanks to a season long six-game winning streak. The schedule has played a role in that however as the Blazers won five of those games at home while the other came on the road at the 22-55 Lakers. The Blazers are back on the road where they are just 16-23 while winning just eight of 25 games as underdogs. Portland took a big loss however when it was learned that Jusuf Nurkic will miss the rest of the regular season with a non-displaced fibular fracture in his right leg. In 20 games with Portland, Nurkic has averaged 15.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.9 blocks, and the Blazers have compiled a 14-6 record. Minnesota lost to Sacramento on Saturday which snapped a two-game winning streak and put it a game below .500 at home. Still, the Timberwolves are 5-2 ATS over their last seven home games and are definitely in a favorable spot. Meanwhile, Portland is 4-14 ATS this season as an underdog of fewer than six points. 10* (802) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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04-03-17 | Braves +181 v. Mets | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
The Braves are looking to turn around a disappointing 68-93 season but it was solid finish as they went 59-65 under manager Brian Snitker who took over for Fredi Gonzalez who was fired a month and a half into the season. Atlanta added some much-needed veteran talent in free agency as well as trades and now has a nice balanced roster. The Mets will be out to make the playoffs for a third straight season behind one of the best pitching rotations in baseball. They were just seven games over .500 at home and showed a negative 12-unit balance. Atlanta turns to Julio Teheran who is coming off a very solid season with a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 30 starts. Teheran has faced the Mets seven times over the last two seasons and he has posted a 1.52 ERA with six of those being quality outings including all four from last season. New York counters with Noah Syndergaard who is coming off a great season as he posted a lower ERA than Teheran but a higher WHIP. In three career starts against the Braves, he has a 5.52 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. The Mets are without closer Jeurys Familia who has been suspended for the first 15 games of the season and should this game be close, this is a big issue for New York as he led baseball last season with 51 saves. 10* (953) Atlanta Braves |
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04-02-17 | Wizards +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 115-139 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
We played on Washington on Friday and a close game late turned into a big win for Utah. That was the second straight loss for the Wizards and you have to go all the way back to November to find the last time they dropped three in a row. They are 6-0 following consecutive losses and while winning this game may not seem likely, getting the huge point total is more of the concern. Golden St. has won 10 straight games following its loss at San Antonio and has increased its lead to 3.5 games in the Western Conference with just six games left, five of which are at home. The Warriors are pretty much guaranteed a lock for the top spot because of this and with that comes the opportunity of going against a team that is taking the foot off the gas late in games. They have been overpriced all season with 28 ATS losses when favored by double-digits where this line was and remains close to. As stated Friday, the road was an issue early in the season as the Wizards started 3-12 but have gone 14-8 over their last 22 games on the highway. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (521) Washington Wizards |
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04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina -5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 28 m | Show |
North Carolina came away with a narrow win over Kentucky to make it to the Final Four but got a scare when point guard Joel Berry II rolled an ankle. Luckily, nearly a week off will help it heal and there were concerns he would not be able to play but he has been upgraded to probable. Oregon had a surprisingly easy time against Kansas as it defeated the Jayhawks by 14 points following a pair of close wins over Rhode Island and Michigan by a combined four points. The Ducks will put up a fight but the Tar Heels are on a mission after the last second loss in the National Championship last season. One big key for Oregon is its defense and the strength is the match-up zone the Ducks play which is not good for North Carolina and its streaky outside shooting. But this is not necessarily a disadvantage for the Tar Heels which lead the nation in offensive rebounding percentage at 41 percent. They grabbed 13 offensive rebounds on 31 missed shots in the Elite Eight win over Kentucky and Oregon is not a good rebounding team. The Ducks are No. 128 in defensive rebounding percentage (Kentucky is No. 69) so North Carolina will have an even bigger edge on the glass should it not shoot very well. Oregon has just two players in the starting lineup that are taller than 6'4" while the Tar Heels have four starters that are 6'6" and taller. This makes the loss of center Chris Boucher a really big absence in this matchup. 10* (814) North Carolina Tar Heels |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 34 m | Show |
Gonzaga easily took care of Xavier on Saturday for its first start to finish easy game of the NCAA Tournament thus far. While this one may not be as easy, we can expect a comfortable win as the Bulldogs have the advantages at the important spots. The two big stars for each team resides in the backcourt with Nigel Williams-Goss for Gonzaga and Sindarius Thornwell for South Carolina. They pretty much negate each other out and with the perimeter defenses being so good on both sides, the secondary backcourt scorers for both teams will be crucial. Those should also negate each other out as they are fairly even when it comes to scoring and efficiency. Therefore, the difference in this one will come from down low and the Bulldogs have a huge advantage. Prezmek Karnowski, Johnathan Williams and Zach Collins average a combined 32.4 ppg and 18 rpg while the Gamecocks have only two significant frontcourt players who do not match up so that along with the depth down low will be the difference for Gonzaga. South Carolina did well against Florida in the interior but the Gators are far from the same team down low as the Bulldogs. Gonzaga uses its size, strength and ability to control the boards to limit teams second-chance scoring opportunities. While the covering has not been there as much, the Bulldogs are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (812) Gonzaga Bulldogs |
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03-31-17 | Wizards +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 88-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the status of Utah point guard George Hill who was listed as doubtful but was actually ruled out last night. The Jazz won the last game without Hill but that came against Sacramento, their second straight win. They have had their struggles against the better teams in the league as they have only 15 wins against the top 16 teams in the NBA which is the lowest win total among the top 10 teams. We played against Washington in its last game against the Clippers which came after a win over the Lakers that captured its first division title in 39 years. Now it is back to business for the Wizards which have been one of the best teams in the NBA over the last three months as they are 30-11 over their last 41 games. The road was an issue early in the season as they started 3-12 but have gone 14-7 over their last 21 games on the highway. The Wizards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (517) Washington Wizards |
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03-31-17 | Pistons +10 v. Bucks | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
We were on Detroit last night and while the Pistons won, it failed to cover against Brooklyn but did keep pace in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Pistons are two and a half games out of the final spot and tonight, we are seeing a 16.5-point line swing which is simply too much. The Bucks have won two straight, both coming on the road, and they are peaking at the right time, having won 17 of their last 23 games. But this is a very aggressive line. Milwaukee has been a double-digit favorite twice this season, against the Nets and Sixers, and failed to cover either of those games. While Detroit has been struggling, the Pistons cannot be put in the category of those two teams and while they have failed to cover both games as a double-digit underdog, those games were at Utah and Golden St. so clearly this line is extremely overinflated. The Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. 10* (511) Detroit Pistons |
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03-31-17 | Pacers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 100-111 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Indiana lost in Memphis on Wednesday to make it four defeats over its last five games and now it is tied with Miami for the No. 7 spot in the Eastern Conference and just one game ahead of Chicago for the No. 9 slot. The Pacers have not exactly shined on the road but are getting exceptional line value here for a team that will be plenty motivated to win. The line value comes by looking at the previous meeting less than two weeks ago when the Raptors were favored by 2.5 points and now it has more than doubled. Toronto is sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference but with no chance to move down, the incentive to move up is minimal based on the now parity in the Eastern Conference among the top four teams. The Raptors had a six-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday and going back, they are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (503) Indiana Pacers |
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03-30-17 | Nets v. Pistons -6 | Top | 89-90 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
We won with Detroit on Tuesday as it covered at home as an underdog but still lost the game outright on a last second tip-in against Miami in a much needed game. Now with just seven games remaining in the regular season, the Pistons are on the verge of not making the playoffs as they are three games behind Miami and Indiana for the eighth spot. This is a game the Pistons have to take with four of their last six games taking place on the road where they are 11-26. Detroit is 19-9 ATS this season as a single digit favorite of four or more points and playing with revenge from a two-point loss in Brooklyn nine days ago. Interestingly, the Pistons were favored by 5.5-points there and are now favored by just a half-point more at home which presents incredible value. After the cover against Miami, the Pistons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record. Brooklyn has been playing better of late with wins in three of its last five games but this is a tough team to trust on the road with its total of six wins on the season. Detroit has not lost at home to a team that is currently not in a playoff spot since late January and that run continues in a big way tonight. 10* (702) Detroit Pistons |
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03-29-17 | Wizards v. Clippers -5 | Top | 124-133 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
These teams are coming off opposite results in their most recent games. The Clippers blew an 18-point lead with 5:16 remaining in the fourth quarter against Sacramento and lost while last night, Washington came back from a 13-point deficit to start the fourth quarter and outscored the Lakers by 24 points in the final period. The differences in those outcomes are big going forward and most important, the Clippers have had two days of rest to get over their collapse while Washington has to play the next night. Los Angeles has won four of its last six games and is still fighting for home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs as it trails fourth place Utah by just a game and a half. The Wizards are fighting for playoff positioning as well and while they have been playing well on the road, they are catching the wrong team at the wrong time. Additionally, Washington captured its first division title in 39 years with the win last night so a letdown is certainly more than possible. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (520) Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-29-17 | Heat -2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 105-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
We played against Miami last night and while the Heat won, they failed to cover against the Pistons. Miami remains in the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference but it gained some ground on Indiana as it is now a game back while moving a full game ahead of Chicago so everything is extremely close in the playoff chase. The Heat have not been great on the road this season but have been playing much better as they are 9-5 over their last 14 road games. The Knicks defeated Detroit on Monday which was definitely a rare victory as it has been a very long season. Winning streaks have been few and far between as New York has not won back-to-back games since before Christmas, going 0-2 in its last 12 games following a victory while covering just two of those games. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing straight up record while the Heat are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a losing straight up record. Additionally, they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing with no rest. 10* (507) Miami Heat |
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03-29-17 | Bucks +8 v. Celtics | Top | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Boston is on a roll with four straight wins and it has taken over first place in the Eastern Conference, leading the Cavaliers by a half-game. This is the latest the Celtics have owned sole possession of first place in the Eastern Conference since the 2007-08 season when they won their last NBA title. The own the second best home record in the Eastern Conference but the linesmakers have taken this into consideration here and it is not a good sign for Boston backers. The Celtics are 0-11 ATS this season when favored by eight or more points. The Bucks won in Charlotte last night to keep pace with Atlanta for fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Playoff positioning is not a huge as all first round opponents will be tough but the bigger thing for Milwaukee is actually staying in the playoffs. The Bucks are only three games out of ninth place so they have to continue fighting and the remaining schedule is not very easy. They match up well with Boston as they have a nice size advantage so this is one they can keep tight. The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing with no rest while the Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. 10* (509) Milwaukee Bucks |
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03-28-17 | Heat v. Pistons +2.5 | Top | 97-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Detroit got manhandled by the lowly Knicks last night which was its fourth straight loss and knocked it down to tenth place in the Eastern Conference, trailing the eighth place Heat by a game and a half. While that makes this is a big game for both sides here, it is more important for the Pistons as a loss could essentially make it too far too overcome. This four-game losing streak has all been games on the road where they have now lost six straight games but have been much better at home with a 12-5 record over their last 17 games. Four of those losses came against the Spurs, Celtics, Jazz and Raptors, all of which are top four teams in their respective conferences. Miami has been fairly average following its incredible run to get into the playoff hunt as it has gone just 3-4 over its last seven games including losses in both road games. The Heats are just 21-33 when not listed as a home favorite and there is no reason they should be a road favorite here with nearly identical opposite home/road splits with Detroit. The Pistons are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (766) Detroit Pistons |
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03-28-17 | Wolves +4.5 v. Pacers | Top | 115-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Indiana has played very consistent at home which has kept it in the playoff hunt as it is tied with the Bucks for sixth place in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers are coming off a win over Philadelphia on Sunday but the one thing they have not been able to do is win consistently on a back-to-back basis as they are 0-8 in their last eight games following a victory. This dates back to prior to the All Star Break so it has been an ongoing issue for a while now. Minnesota is well out of the playoff race in the Western Conference following its sixth straight loss on Saturday in Portland. It has been a tough stretch with four of those losses coming on the road against playoff contenders, another road loss in overtime and a home loss against the Spurs. The task will not be easy here but the contrarian angle is a strong one here in a matchup that the Timberwolves have the edge at in significant positions. The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Pacers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (761) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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03-28-17 | Bucks v. Hornets -3 | Top | 118-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
It has been a great run for Milwaukee since early February and it has coincided with the return of Khris Middleton from his torn hamstring. After missing over 50 games to begin the season, the Bucks have gone 15-5 over their last 20 games and while his numbers are down slightly, his minutes are still down and come playoff time, Milwaukee could be in great shape being pretty fresh. That being said, the Bucks have had a favorable schedule as while they are 7-3 on the road, five of those wins have come against teams completely out of the playoff picture. Charlotte is not one of those teams as it is two games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the conference and while the chances are slim because the Hornets will have to pass four teams, being mathematically alive is huge for motivation. The Hornets are a horrible 2-20 this season as underdogs but a much better 21-9 at home as favorites. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (764) Charlotte Hornets |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield +2.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 61-76 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
CS Bakersfield is a surprise to be in the NIT semis at MSG as it won three road games and became the first No. 8 seed to reach the NIT semifinals. The wins came in some tough places as well as first at California, then at Colorado St., then two nights later at a UT\-Arlington team that was 14-0 at home. Amazingly, the Roadrunners led all of those games by at least 20 points at some stage in the game. They are ranked 15th nationally in defensive efficiency according to KenPom and their defensive field goal percentage of .369 is third-best among 351 Div. I schools. This defense is what made them tough on the road as they were up four in Arizona with eight minutes left and were down three at SMU with five minutes to go before losing both. The fact their 11 road wins this season rank fourth nationally tells a lot. Georgia Tech had a decent season but has made a nice run in the NIT. The Yellow Jackets were fortunate to have their first game moved to a home game against Indiana which was a big advantage and gave them some confidence moving forward. They too can defend but not quite as good as their opponent. Bakersfield went to the NCAA Tournament last year (lost to Oklahoma) and should have been there again but lost to New Mexico St. but was exhausted from a quadruple overtime game in the semifinals the night before. The Roadrunners are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. 10* (777) CS Bakersfield Roadrunners |
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03-27-17 | Thunder v. Mavs +1.5 | Top | 92-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Oklahoma City lost in Houston yesterday to fall to 14-21 on the road which is the worst road record in the Western Conference of the teams currently sitting in a playoff spot. The loss snapped a two-game road winning streak which came after seven straight setbacks on the highway. The real issue is now trying to win a day later as Oklahoma City is just 3-9 playing with no rest and this includes a 0-6 record when playing back-to-back road games with no rest. Dallas is also coming off a loss as it fell to Toronto on Saturday but it has still been a solid run as the Mavericks are 9-6 over their last 15 games including a 5-1 record when coming off a loss. Making the playoffs is becoming less likely at this point as Dallas trails Portland and Denver by 3.5 games but as long as they are still in it, they will be fighting to win. This is the final home game before five straight on the road so this is as much of a must win as you can get. The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a losing road record while going 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up loss. Meanwhile the Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (738) Dallas Mavericks |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida -3.5 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
It seems pretty hard to believe that of the six teams left in the NCAA Tournament, three are from the SEC, with all of those three teams playing today. South Carolina and Florida will be meeting for the third time this season with the winner-take-all prize of heading to the Final Four. We saw the Cinderella slipper fall of Xavier last night and we will see the same today for the Gamecocks who have had a great run but cannot continue on behind just one player. These teams split their regular season meetings but it was Florida that should have swept the series. In the first meeting, the Gators missed all 17 of their three-point attempts and KeVaughn Allen, a first-team All-SEC guard, scored just one point. He came back with 26 points in the second meeting with the Gators rolling by 15 points which was the more atypical result. The Gators are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Gamecocks are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 SEC games. 10* (722) Florida Gators |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga -8 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
It has been a pretty incredible run for Xavier in the NCAA Tournament as the No. 11 seed has won all three games as an underdog culminating with the two-point win over Arizona on Thursday, ending the game on a 9-0 run. The Musketeers have won six of their last seven games following a six-game losing streak toward the end of the regular season. Against Arizona, Xavier shot 52.8 percent from the floor and was fortunate to catch the Wildcats on a bad shooting night. The Musketeers were outrebounded 35-24 including 14-6 on the offensive glass and that is a big problem here against a much better rebounding team. Gonzaga won another close game on Thursday and it has not looked like a No. 1 seed so far but it catches a good matchup here in a game that could turn into a runaway. The Bulldogs are big and Xavier will have to contend with Przemek Karnowski and the trio of athletic bigs who surround the Bulldogs center. Gonzaga committed 16 turnovers against West Virginia and the pressure defense but it will not have to worry about that here as Xavier forces fewer than 12 turnovers per game. The Bulldogs are 11-1 on the season against RPI top 100 teams while Xavier possesses 13 losses against top 100 teams from the RPI. While Xavier has covered seven straight games, going back, the Bulldogs are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (514) Gonzaga Bulldogs |
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03-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Going into Wednesday, the Clippers trailed Utah by a half-game for the fourth spot in the Western Conference which comes with the coveted home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Jazz defeated New York and the next night, the Clippers lost at Dallas so the deficit went to a game and a half but Los Angeles can get a whole game back with a win this afternoon. The Clippers have won four of their last five games at home and are in excellent position to end the season with just two road games remaining in their last nine contests overall. Utah snapped a three-game slide with that win over the Knicks and while it has a winning road record, most of the wins have come against lesser competition. The Jazz are just 6-11 ATS on the road against winning teams and on the season, they are just 4-14 as underdogs while going 0-8 ATS when getting between three and eight points. The Clippers have won 21 of 27 home games as favorites and with this manageable number, they take care of business again and get closer to the fourth spot in the standings. 10* (502) Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor -3.5 | Top | 70-50 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
South Carolina is one of a few remaining teams many feel can be the Cinderella story but the magical run ends here. Wins over Marquette and Duke were impressive considering the Gamecocks put up 93 and 88 points but a lot of that was due to its strong defense that forced turnovers while also winning the rebounding battle. The issue is that South Carolina has a horrible offense as it finished the season ranked last in the SEC in shooting and when it matches up against a team that can negate its strengths, it will be in big trouble. Baylor is one of those teams. While South Carolina has the No. 4 adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, Baylor is at No. 13 so there is not a significant difference there. The Bears are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation as they are No. 4 in rebounding percentage and No. 2 in offensive rebounding percentage. They have outrebounded opponents by 8.0 rpg on the season while the Gamecocks are pretty much dead even and over the last five games, they are +12.8 rog while South Carolina is in the negative. Baylor is 9-4 against the RPI top 50 while South Carolina is just 3-5 which shows a pretty big stretch of schedule differential and that Baylor has been able to handle it well. Taking care of the ball is vital for Baylor and its 1.20 assist/turnover ratio show it can while on the other side, the Gamecocks 0.99 A/TO ratio is the worst of the remaining 16 teams. 10* (874) Baylor Bears |
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03-24-17 | Butler +7.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 50 m | Show |
There are three 1-4 matchups in the Sweet 16 and judging by this line, linesmakers feel this is the most lopsided one. Based on the RPI though, this is actually the closest of the three matchups with this being No. 5 vs. No. 14 and the other two being No. 4 vs. No. 16 and No. 3 vs. No. 19. North Carolina is favored this much because it is a heavily bet team no matter who or where it is playing so the adjustment had to be made. We played against Butler when it faced off against Middle Tennessee St. and the Bulldogs proved they are primed for a legitimate run. This was proved a while back when they defeated Villanova not once but twice during the regular season. Overall, Butler is 16-5 against the RPI top 100 while North Carolina is 17-6 and that difference is insignificant adding on that Butler faced a slightly tougher schedule than the Tar Heels. North Carolina is the best rebounding team in the nation which is a concern for all teams playing the Tar Heels but the Bulldogs have found ways to be able to compete with the top rebounding teams they have faced. Villanova is a much better rebounding team than Butler yet the Bulldogs won the battle of the boards in both meetings. While this certainly is not a great matchup for the Bulldogs, the same can be said for North Carolina as the Bulldogs defend hard and can take away some of that high-powered offense. The Bulldogs are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (877) Butler Bulldogs |
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03-24-17 | Cavs -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Charlotte has won three straight games to remain in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference as it is now 2.5 games behind Miami for the eighth spot. The Hornets will have to overtake three teams though so the chances are not good and it will be a difficult stretch. That starts tonight as the Hornets were favored in all three games during this recent winning streak and they have not done well when getting points as they are 2-19 as underdogs including going 0-4 as home underdogs. This has translated to the betting aspect as well as Charlotte is 1-8 ATS as an underdog of fewer than five points. Cleveland lost on Wednesday in Denver to fall to 4-6 in its last 10 games and is now just a game up on Boston in the Eastern Conference. Following the game against the Nuggets, LeBron James called the team soft and that was proven in the boxscore as the Cleveland defense was so ineffective that it forced six turnovers and allowed 35 assists. This is a huge game for the Cavaliers to end their roadtrip on a positive note and go into its game art home tomorrow against Washington with some momentum. 10* (855) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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03-23-17 | Clippers v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 95-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The Mavericks lost to the Warriors last time out as they hung around for a while until Golden St. pulled away in the second quarter. With the Denver win last night, Dallas is now 3.5 games behind the Nuggets for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference so time is starting to run out with just a dozen games remaining in the regular season. Dallas has lost consecutive home games for the fifth time this season and in the previous four instances, the Mavericks avoided a three-game home losing streak. Going back further, the Mavericks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss. This is a big game for the Clippers as well as they trail Utah by a game for the fourth spot in the Western Conference following three straight wins. Those wins came against the lowly Lakers and Knicks and the resting Cavaliers so it is not very impressive. They have been a decent road team with a 20-18 record but they are just 7-14 ATS this season on the highway against teams with a losing record. Additionally, Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a double-digit win. 10* (806) Dallas Mavericks |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia v. Gonzaga -3 | Top | 58-61 | Push | 0 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
Many talking heads are saying West Virginia could be the team that takes down Gonzaga and its first ever trip to the Final Four because of the pressure the Mountaineers apply. While they do pressure well and force a ton of turnovers, Gonzaga handles the ball well, averaging 11.3 tpg, 40th in the nation. An argument can be made that Notre Dame was frazzled early and the same will happen to the Bulldogs, that should not happen as this veteran team will be able to handle it. Point guard Nigel Williams-Goss became the West Coast Conference player of the year after back-to-back double-digit scoring seasons at Washington. Johnathan Williams led Missouri in scoring, rebounding and blocks two years ago while graduate transfer Jordan Mathews started 65 games at California. People also point to the lousy schedule that Gonzaga played but it defeated Florida, Iowa St. and Arizona early in the season and overall it is 7-0 against the RPI top 50 and 13-1 against the RPI top 100. Meanwhile, West Virginia is 7-4 and 15-5 respectively so while it has more games against the better teams, those losses cannot be overlooked. This will be the tallest team that the Mountaineers have faced this season so their typical rebounding edge is no longer an edge and could end up a disadvantage here. The close game against northwestern was a good thing for Gonzaga and will help a large amount here. Going back, the Bulldogs are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Mountaineers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (816) Gonzaga Bulldogs |
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03-23-17 | Michigan v. Oregon +1.5 | Top | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 52 h 40 m | Show |
A compelling matchup leads off the Sweet 16 on Thursday as Oregon comes in as one of only two higher seeded teams that is an underdog. Rhode Island gave Oregon all it could handle, but a late surge in the second half, some clutch offensive rebounds and big-time threes gave the Ducks a 75-72 win. They compiled 15 offensive boards and 35 total rebounds against the Rams and that is a big edge to have in this upcoming matchup. Oregon lost center Chris Boucher to a season-ending injury in the Pac 12 Conference tournament, which has forced Oregon to play small and that will not hurt the Ducks here. The Wolverines struggle rebounding, and have been out-rebounded by 2.5 boards per game this season, one of the worst rebounding margins in the country. Offensive rebounding is particularly difficult, with Michigan getting 7.5 boards on that end per game. A strength of Oregon is long range shooting as it is hitting 40.5 percent from behind the arc since February and that is not good against Michigan as it is allowing opponents to shoot 37.5 percent from behind the three-point line, the 15th-highest rate among the 16 teams remaining. The Wolverines will be a very popular play here as they are the public darlings of the tournament, thus they are pegged as the favorite. That is an edge to Oregon as the Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of fewer than seven points. 10* (814) Oregon Ducks |
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03-22-17 | Bucks -3.5 v. Kings | Top | 116-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
The Bucks won in Portland last night to move to 3-2 on this current roadtrip and they conclude the six-game trek tonight. The two losses came at Golden St. and Memphis, both playoff teams, and they have done very well against the teams below them. Milwaukee is just 12-23 against teams ranked in the top 16 but the complete opposite 23-12 against teams ranked below that mark. Milwaukee is 13-5 over its last 18 games which has gotten the Bucks back to .500 mark overall and they currently sit in seventh place in the Eastern Conference. This is big considering the Bucks are just two games out of fifth place and just a game and a half out of ninth place so there is little room for error. Sacramento is just playing out the season at this point as it has struggled since the All Star Break with a 3-10 record. The Kings have been hit hard of late with injuries which has hurt the depth overall. While the home record is pretty similar to the Bucks road record, most of that home success came with DeMarcus Cousins in town as they are 2-6 at home without him. The Kings are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (763) Milwaukee Bucks |
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03-22-17 | Pacers +8 v. Celtics | Top | 100-109 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The Celtics have won four of their last five games after a big win over Washington on Monday which increased their lead to 2.5 games over the Wizards for the second spot in the Eastern Conference. That was the fourth straight home win and Boston is 11-1 in its last 12 home games but the spot it is in tonight has been a disaster for bettors. The Celtics are 0-10 ATS this season when favored by eight or more points including a 0-7 ATS record at home, two resulting in outright losses. The Pacers are coming off a win over the Jazz at home as underdogs and while consecutive wins have been few and far between of late, we do not need the outright win here as this line is generous enough. It is no secret Indiana has struggled on the road this season but they are a respectable 7-6 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (753) Indiana Pacers |
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03-22-17 | Illinois v. UCF -3.5 | Top | 58-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Central Florida will take on its second team from Illinois in three days and the Knights are back home to try and advance to MSG and the NIT Semifinals. They overcame an 18-point deficit and defeated Illinois St. 63-62 Monday on a pair of B.J. Taylor free throws with just 1.3 seconds to play. That type of comeback is huge moving forward and the Knights bring that momentum in Wednesday where they are 14-3 at home and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games as favorites of less than seven points. Illinois is coming off an impressive effort on Monday as it took care of Boise St. by 15 points after trailing at halftime by a point. The second half effort was fueled by the fact that upcoming head coach Brad Underwood was in attendance, although not coaching, so the younger players were no doubt auditioning in front of their new coach. The Illini hit the road where they have struggled where they are just 3-6 and going back, they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Additionally, UCF is 8-2 ATS at home against teams with a winning record while the Illini are 3-7 ATS on the road against above .500 teams. 10* (768) UCF Knights |
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03-21-17 | Warriors v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 112-87 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
The Warriors won their game over Oklahoma City last night and swept the season series with the Thunder 4-0 by an average of more than 20 ppg. That was a big game and one that Golden St. got up for bigger than others and that will provide a slight letdown going into Dallas tonight. The Warriors are now two and a half games ahead of San Antonio in the Western Conference but they are in a horrible spot, not even taking Oklahoma City into account. They are 4-15 ATS this season on the road against teams with a losing record while going 2-7 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Dallas won its last game in Brooklyn to cap a 2-2 roadtrip where it has struggled mightily with just nine wins all season long. The Mavericks are 13-4 in their last 17 home games with some quality wins along the way and over that stretch, they have gone 14-3 ATS. Dallas is just two and a half games out of the final playoff spot in the conference and covering against an elite team is no issue as the Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (660) Dallas Mavericks |
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03-21-17 | Richmond +7.5 v. TCU | Top | 68-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The NIT continues Tuesday and after seeing a pair of upsets by the road teams last night, we have that possibility again right here. We played against TCU last week when we felt it was overvalued against Fresno St. and that feeling is the same here. The Horned Frogs are coming off an impressive win at Iowa in overtime on Sunday and come home laying a big number. Since the end of their cupcake non-conference season, the Horned Frogs have only two wins by more than what they are laying here and those came against Oklahoma and Texas, both of which won just 11 games each this season. TCU will be without Jaylen Fisher who is its best three-point shooting, second best free throw shooter and is second on the team in assists. Richmond won on the road in the first round and was able to host its next game against Oakland which resulted in a four-point victory. The Spiders are 8-5 on the road this season and most important, they are 6-1 ATS as road underdogs, winning five of those outright with the two losses coming against VCU and Dayton. Going back, the Spiders are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Horned Frogs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (669) Richmond Spiders |
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03-20-17 | Utah Valley v. Rice -4.5 | Top | 85-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Utah Valley finished 15-16 overall including a 6-8record in the WAC yet was invited into a postseason tournament. The Wolverines hit the road and easily took out Georgia Southern in the first round, a team that finished the season just 18-15 and was riding a three-game losing streak at the time. While that can be considered an impressive win, they will be facing a very big test. Utah Valley has only played four games this season that had lines and while it did cover all of those, it shows the discrepancy of the schedules and the levels of competition. Rice had a very strong season and is making its first postseason appearance since 2011-12. The Owls have won 10 of their last 13 games after defeating San Francisco in the first round, 85-76, last Wednesday. This is a young team with only two seniors on the roster so thing is a big springboard going into next season and that really can make a difference for teams getting extra time together. Rice has won 12 of its 15 games this season when playing with three or more days of rest while Utah Valley is just 8-11 when playing with that much time off. 10* (626) Rice Owls |
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03-20-17 | Jazz v. Pacers +3 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
The Pacers lost in Toronto last night to fall to 11-23 on the road but they have been a much better team at home where they are 24-10. Since suffering through a six-game losing streak leading up to the All Star break, the Pacers have yet to lose consecutive games as they are now 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. It has been well documented that they have struggled playing with no rest but all of the damage has come when the second game was on the road. Additionally, the Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Utah has lost its last two games following a win to open this four-game roadtrip and is now two games ahead of the Clippers for the fourth spot in the Western Conference. The Jazz are not in a good spot here as they have struggled against teams that have a significant home floor edge as going back, they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Indiana will be out to avoid a second straight series sweep to Utah in a game we feel the wrong team is favored. 10* (606) Indiana Pacers |
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03-19-17 | Cincinnati v. UCLA -3.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This game is a contrast of styles as UCLA brings in the best offense in the country while Cincinnati counters with a top ranked defense and while the latter is usually an advantage at this stage in the season, the Bruins have too much firepower. The Bearcats have had a great season as they have lost only five games, two coming against SMU and two others against teams still in the NCAA Tournament. They are just 7-5 against the RPI top 100 as they were not tested much in the AAC. UCLA had no issues with Kent St. in its first game as the offense put up 97 points with five players scoring at least 14 points. UCLA totaled 25 assists against the Golden Flashes and shot 62.7 percent from the floor and the balance of this team cannot be overlooked. The Bearcats rank only 327th nationally in the Kenpom.com metric for AdjT (adjusted tempo), with 63.6 possessions per a 40-minute game. UCLA ranks No. 13 in that category at 73.1 and when this turns into a trackmeet, Cincinnati will not be able to keep up. The Bruins are 12-4 against the RPI top 100 and keep the run going on Sunday in easy fashion. 10* (732) UCLA Bruins |
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island +5.5 v. Oregon | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Rhode Island was a marginal bubble team prior to the Atlantic Ten Tournament but it went on to win three games in three days for the championship and then beat Creighton to move its winning streak to nine straight games. The Rams were up and down for the most part but five of their nine losses came by five points or less and overall they are now 10-7 against the RPI top 100. They provide matchup problems on both ends as they have a solid inside-outside game on offense and defensively, Rhode Island uses a version of VCU's "havoc defense" to relentlessly swarm the ball. Oregon did not get overly tested against Iona in its first game as it used its athleticism to run away from the Gaels. The Ducks will not be able to have that edge here though and they struggle against physical teams. The loss of Chris Boucher was big to begin with but it is bigger in a game like this as he was third on the team in scoring, second in rebounding and first in blocked shots. The Ducks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (729) Rhode Island Rams |
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03-18-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 96-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
San Antonio jumped over Golden St. for the top spot in the Western Conference but it lasted for just one day as the Spurs lost at home against Portland while the Warriors defeated Orlando on Thursday. They look to at least keep pace tonight as they head to Memphis and look to add to their 11-1 run following a loss and there is payback in play as well. San Antonio came here on February 6 and lost 89-74 which is by far its lowest offensive output of the season and snapped a nine-game winning streak in this series. Memphis had lost five straight games but has since put together a three-game winning streak and remains a half-game behind the Thunder for the sixth spot in the conference. The Grizzlies have been a pretty average team at home with a 20-14 record, the worst of all playoff contending teams ahead of them. They do own some big wins against solid teams this season but are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile the Spurs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (511) San Antonio Spurs |
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03-18-17 | Middle Tennessee +4.5 v. Butler | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 9 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee St. dominated Minnesota on Thursday as the Blue Raiders led by as many as 17 points and held off a late Gophers rally to pull off its second upset in the NCAA Tournament in as many years. This really was not an upset though as they were favored despite being seeded seven spots lower. After Middle Tennessee beat the Spartans last year, it was crushed by No. 10 seed Syracuse 75-50 as the Orange made their way to the Final Four and that loss will benefit it big this time around. The Blue Raiders rolled through the regular season, with only Gonzaga and Villanova finishing with a better winning percentage so this team is for real. Butler cannot be taken lightly as it easily took out Winthrop to advance and shook off a loss in its first game in the Big East Tournament. The Bulldogs handed Villanova two of its three losses this season so they can certainly play at a high level but at the same time, they did suffer some bad losses. Middle Tennessee St. has been an underdog only three times this season and covered all of those, winning two outright and going back, the Blue Raiders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (525) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders |
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03-18-17 | Wisconsin v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
Wisconsin won for us on Thursday as it was able to pull away late but now encounters a much tougher task in facing the No. 1 seed Wildcats. We mentioned that the Badgers were underseeded and they were able to take advantage against an overseeded Hokies team but because of their seeding problem, they have to face a top seed earlier than expected. Wisconsin was able to pull away against Virginia Tech thanks to taking 11 more shots including 14 more three-pointers which was in part to a 10-rebouind edge on the boards. However, the Hokies were one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, No. 263 in rebound rate and now will be facing one of the best. Villanova was up by just a point over Mount St. Marys at halftime but pulled away with a big second half and going into the game, head coach Jay Wright said he would expect his team to fell the No.1/No 16 pressure and that was the case as the Wildcats came out flat and played tight for 20 minutes. In addition to taking the rebound edge away from Wisconsin, the Wildcats have a huge free throw edge as they are hitting 79.2 percent compared to 64.8 percent for the Badgers. The Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of fewer than seven points while the Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. 10* (520) Villanova Wildcats |
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03-17-17 | Wichita State v. Dayton +6 | Top | 64-58 | Push | 0 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
Wichita St. was considered by most to be most underseeded team in the NCAA Tournament and the linesmakers agree with that as they have listed the Shockers as a rather large favorite over Dayton despite being three seeds lower. Obviously they are a very solid team that finished 30-4 but the Missouri Valley Conference had a very down year and besides two wins over Illinois St., there were not many quality wins. They played a very easy schedule and went just 3-4 against top 100 teams with the other victory coming against Colorado St. Three of those four losses came against Louisville, Michigan St. and Oklahoma St. by an average of 10.7 ppg. Dayton actually comes in with a higher RPI than Wichita St. which makes the line that much more confounding. The Flyers bowed out of the Atlantic Ten Tournament after its first game but despite two losses in a row, they had won nine straight games prior to that. Dayton played a much tougher schedule and went 12-4 against top 100 RPI teams and six of their seven losses came by six points or less. Dayton went 4-1 ATS this season as an underdog while going 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Shockers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games as a favorite. 10* (832) Dayton Flyers |
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03-17-17 | Mavs v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 74-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
The Sixers are back home following a four-game roadtrip where they went 1-3. They have definitely cooled off after a big January but they continue to cover because the public still does not want to back them thus overadjusted lines. Philadelphia covered all four of those most recent road games and it is 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games and is once again falling into a good spot. Additionally, the Sixers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a losing road record. The Mavericks are coming off an upset win at Washington on Wednesday as they put up 39 points in the fourth quarter to notch just their eighth road win of the season against 23 losses. This includes losses in five of their last six road games with three of those losses coming against losing teams and while it has been solid as a favorite, tonight marks the first time all season that Dallas is listed as a road favorite. The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (802) Philadelphia 76ers |
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03-17-17 | Rhode Island +1 v. Creighton | Top | 84-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Rhode Island was a marginal bubble team prior to the Atlantic Ten Tournament but it went on to win three games in three days for the championship to move its winning streak to eight straight games. The Rams were up and down for the most part but five of their nine losses came by five points or less and overall they went 9-7 against the RPI top 100. This is the first NCAA Tournament appearance in 18 years for the Rams so this is a big deal. Creighton made a nice run in the Big East Tournament in beating Providence and Xavier it has struggled after an 18-1 start. There was talk of the Bluejays being a sleeper national title contender but then point guard Maurice Watson went down on January 16 and they closed the regular season 5-7 over their final 12 games. Davion Mintz, Tyler Clement and Ronnie Harrell all had their moments in the Big East tournament but no one has emerged at that spot and it takes them a while on a game-by-game basis to see which player actually prefers the matchup. This is not good in this tournament that favors strong guard play. The Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (843) Rhode Island Rams |
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03-17-17 | USC v. SMU -6.5 | Top | 66-65 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
It is rare to have a revenge game in the first rounds of the NCAA Tournament but that is the case here as USC defeated SMU back in late November. That game was in Los Angeles however where the Trojans were a perfect 18-0 this season. They are coming off a huge comeback win over Providence in one of the First Four games as they trailed by 17 points in the second half but came back to win by four. This is a tough situation playing a night game on Wednesday and then playing a day game two days later with a day of travel involved on top of that. SMU is one of the hottest teams in the country right now as it has won 16 straight games and is 26-1 over its last 27 games with the lone loss coming in Cincinnati by just two points. Still, the Mustangs did not get a great seed and they are highly motivated to make a big run especially not being able to play in the postseason last year due to program violations after finishing 25-5 overall. At the end of the regular season the Associated Press ranked SMU No. 12 and USA Today ranked them No. 15 in the nation. The Trojans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Mustangs are 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite. 10* (836) SMU Mustangs |
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03-17-17 | Oklahoma State +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
Michigan comes into the NCAA Tournament with a lot of momentum as it has won five straight games including a stretch of four games in four days to win the Big Ten Tournament. The Wolverines have become a very popular pick to make a run but it will be tested right away. This game has pickem written all over it yet the Wolverines opened as the slight favorite and have already been bet up by the public. Michigan typically has a very efficient team and that is the case again this season however the Cowboys rank No. 1 in the nation in the KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) at 124.8. Oklahoma St. rolled through the non-conference with a 10-2 record, losing only to North Carolina and Maryland by a point but then things went south quickly as it lost its first six Big XII games. Five of those were against NCAA Tournament teams and four came down to the final minute. The Cowboys then went on to win 10 of their next 11 games before dropping their last three games, two against Iowa St. and the other against Kansas. The Cowboys are also one of the best free throw shooting teams in the nation and going back, they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog. 10* (827) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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03-16-17 | Virginia Tech v. Wisconsin -5.5 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
While many are claiming that Wichita St. was the most underseeded team in the NCAA Tournament, I think that claim goes to Wisconsin. The Badgers ended up with a No. 8 seed which does not make sense when comparing it to other teams in the Big Ten. The most glaring comparison is with Minnesota. Wisconsin and Minnesota had a similar resume yet the Gophers got a No. 5 seed despite Wisconsin sweeping the season series. The Badgers stumbled down the stretch with losses in five of six games but most were close and they blasted Minnesota in the final regular season game before making a run to the Big Ten Tournament championship game. When the Badgers play efficient, they are tough to beat and Thursday they will be facing one of the worst defenses in the entire tournament. The Hokies are ranked No. 230 in defensive efficiency and they have the worst RPI of any ACC team that is playing in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia Tech also played the easiest schedule of all of those ACC teams as well and are without one of their best guards as Chris Clarke was lost for the season. While the Hokies still possess a strong offense, the Badgers have the much stronger defense which is the big edge in this matchup. 10* (716) Wisconsin Badgers |
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03-16-17 | Clippers -1.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Clippers are coming off a disappointing home loss last night against Milwaukee which was their second straight setback and they now trail Utah by three games for the fourth spot in the Western Conference. It has been a very up and down stretch for Los Angeles as after going 4-0 in its final four games prior to the All Star Break, it is just 5-7 in 12 games since then. The good news is that the Clippers catch a Denver team that is banged up right now. The Nuggets have won three straight games but the last two came against the Kings and Lakers. They paid a price as Wilson Chandler was hurt against the Kings and missed the Lakers game while Danilo Gallinari got hurt last game and both will be out tonight. These are two of the top three scorers which will make the frontcourt very thin. Denver won here by 25 points in the last meeting in January but the Clippers were without both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul. Going back, the Nuggets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning straight up record while the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (709) Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-16-17 | Thunder v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 123-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
The Raptors defeated Dallas on Monday and they trail Washington by two games for the third spot in the Eastern Conference which is a coveted spot considering it would mean avoiding Cleveland until the finals. They are also just two games out of fifth place so with just 15 games left, everyone is important now. Toronto has been pretty average since Kyle Lowry was shut down for surgery as it is 5-5 but that is not considered too bad when seeing that the Raptors were 5-11 in the previous 16 games with him in the lineup. The Thunder snapped a seven-game road losing streak with a win over Brooklyn on Tuesday which is not saying much. Overall, they are 13-20 on the road and of those 13 wins, only four have come against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma City has struggled all season by winning just eight of 26 games as an underdog while going just 3-8 ATS when getting fewer than four points. Toronto is 16-8 ATS this season against teams with a winning record while winning 12 of 14 games when playing with two or more days of rest, covering 11 of those. 10* (704) Toronto Raptors |
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03-16-17 | Vanderbilt v. Northwestern +1 | Top | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
This is the first ever NCAA Tournament appearance for Northwestern so just being here may seem like an excuse for the Wildcats not really showing up. That is the furthest from the truth and while the experience may be lacking on the court, it is not lacking on the sidelines. Chris Collins played and coached at Duke for a total of 17 years so he knows what the NCAA Tournament is all about. The Wildcats stumbled toward the end of the season as they lost seven of their last 12 games including a bad loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament but they are in a good matchup here. Vanderbilt enters the tournament with the most losses in the field and is considered to be one of the sleeper teams in the tournament thanks to playing one of the toughest schedules in the nation. But the Commodores suffered some bad losses down the stretch of the season as five of their final seven losses came against teams not participating in the Big Dance and those were all in the SEC. The conference as a whole was very weak and if the Commodores cannot make threes, they are doomed which will likely happen here because of the strong Northwestern perimeter defense. The Wildcats balance will be the difference here. 10* (740) Northwestern Wildcats |
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03-16-17 | Middle Tennessee -1 v. Minnesota | Top | 81-72 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
While it has been mentioned that the lines can be affected by all of the so-called professional opinions leading up to the games on Thursday and Friday, this is one that makes sense. Rarely will you see a No. 12 seed favored but the Blue Raiders are a special team that rolled through their conference all season. C-USA is certainly not a strong conference but 17 of their 20 league wins were blowouts. Middle Tennessee St. has a couple of head scratching losses at home against Georgia St. and Tennessee St. but its other two losses were by just six points combined including a three-point loss against VCU. A 23-point win over Vanderbilt solidifies it and the win over Michigan St. in the NCAA Tournament a season ago shows they have kept the momentum going. Minnesota is a team that is hard to figure out as it has only one quality non-conference win and actually went through a three-game losing streak within the Big Ten. The Gophers bounced back with an eight-game winning streak but only two of those came against NCAA Tournament bound teams. 10* (733) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders |
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03-16-17 | North Carolina Wilmington v. Virginia -7 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
The NCAA Tournament first round is announced four days prior to the first tip and we can gain so much line value based on all of the predictions that we hear leading up to that. Waiting often gives us an opportunity to go against some of these bold predictions upsets with the lines moving our way. One such game is one of the first games on Thursday as UNC-Wilmington is a very popular play for an upset and we are catching enormous line value. Virginia was an underachieving team this season with 10 losses but that is skewed. The Cavaliers lost four games by four points or less and dropped another two in overtime and those were all against ACC teams. The fact of the matter this is the No. 4 ranked defense in the nation in efficiency and is by far the best defense UNC-Wilmington has seen. The Seahawks score a ton but that came against No. 142 ranked schedule in the country. Many look at them hanging with Duke in the first round last season but that was a much easier matchup as Duke had no defense yet were laying more points than what Virginia is laying here. 10* (722) Virginia Cavaliers |
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03-15-17 | Fresno State +10.5 v. TCU | Top | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Fresno St. was unable to duplicate what it did last season when it won its last six regular season game and tore through the MWC Tournament to win three games in three days to make it to the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs won five straight to end the regular season this year and took out New Mexico in their first tournament game but ran into a very strong Nevada team to get ousted. The head into the NIT as a No. 5 seed yet are getting a line compared to a No. 8 seed and the double-digit line is loaded with value. TCU played in a much tougher conference but the Horned Frogs are significantly overpriced here. They took out Kansas in the Big XII Tournament which was definitely a big win but the motivation of Kansas in that game needs to be questioned. TCU closed on a 2-8 run and its 13-6 home record is far from dominant. Fresno St. is 7-6 against top 100 RPI teams while going 21-6 ATS in its last 27 games against winning teams. TCU is just 4-12 against top 100 RPI teams and is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against winning teams. 10* (635) Fresno St. Bulldogs |
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03-15-17 | Jazz v. Pistons +3.5 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Detroit got thumped in Cleveland last night as it fell to a very motivated Cavaliers team but now heading home, the Pistons will be the motivated bunch tonight. They are in seventh place in the Eastern Conference playoff race but sit just a game out of tenth place so there is little room for error. Detroit is 22-12 at home including wins in 13 of its last 16 at the Palace while going 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following a straight up loss, winning the last seven games outright. Utah won at home against the Clippers on Monday to make it five wins in its last six games. The Jazz are guaranteed of a playoff spot and they are gunning for home court advantage but they are not in a good spot here as they have struggled against teams that have a significant home floor edge. Going back, the Jazz are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (610) Detroit Pistons |
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03-14-17 | Indiana v. Georgia Tech +3 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
The NIT tips off tonight and one of the intriguing games is this one where Indiana faces Georgia Tech but it is the lower-seeded Yellow Jackets that get to play at home. While the Hoosiers are the higher seed and have the right to hold the game on their home court, Indiana declined. ESPNU, which broadcast the selection show, said that it was due to a renovation project of Assembly Hall. A tweet from Indiana beat writer Mike Miller of the Herald Times of Bloomington (Ind.) reported that the school passed because students will be on spring break. This is excellent new for Georgia Tech which went 15-4 on its home floor this season and catches a Hoosiers team that won just two true road games all season. As for the Yellow Jackets, head coach Josh Pastner wants a home-court advantage and because of NIT rules where students have to buy tickets for $15 (home games are free during the regular season), he is paying for every student that wants to attend. The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss. 10* (550) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
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03-14-17 | Pistons v. Cavs -8 | Top | 96-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Since a four-game winning streak toward the end of February, it has been a tough stretch for Cleveland which is 3-6 over its last nine games including going 1-4 over its last five games. Six of the last seven games have come on the road so that has been part of the issue but there really should be no excuses for a team of this caliber. The Cavaliers lead in the Eastern Conference is down to two games over Boston and things are not going to be getting easier as after a two-game homestand, six of the next seven are back on the road. Payback should add to the motivation as Cleveland has dropped the last two meetings against Detroit, both on the road. The Pistons have won two straight, including one win over Cleveland, and four of their last five games to get back to .500 and remain in seventh place in the Eastern Conference. Detroit has struggled on the road by going just 11-21 including a 6-17 record as an underdog, covering only seven of those. Going back, the Pistons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (532) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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03-13-17 | Bucks v. Grizzlies -4 | Top | 93-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
We lost with Memphis on Saturday as it put up a dud against the Hawks which resulted in a 17-point loss, its fifth straight setback. The Grizzlies are now six games over .500 and sit in the No. 7 spot in the Western Conference, one game behind Oklahoma City which jumped over Memphis. While the losing streak is not ideal, this is the opportunity to bust it as the Grizzlies take to the road after tonight for a two-game trip and going back, they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing straight up record. Milwaukee has won six straight games to get to a game under .500 and climb over Miami for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Five of those wins came at home and the only road win came in Philadelphia and over the last two months, the Bucks have just one road win against teams with a winning record. Also, the Bucks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (508) Memphis Grizzlies |
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03-13-17 | Wizards v. Wolves -1 | Top | 104-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Washington has put together a great stretch at home but it has been the most recent roadtrip that has turned heads as the Wizards are undefeated, going a perfect 4-0 in a stretch of four games in dive days. While having a day off yesterday was good, the Wizards last two games took overtime to win and the travel distance from Portland to here is significant. The Wizards are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record. Minnesota had a nice run going with wins in six of its last eight games before falling to Milwaukee on Saturday. The Timberwolves had covered all eight of those games so the fact they are coming off an ATS loss is helping with the number to go along with the Washington winning streak. Despite being 11 games under .500 overall, the Timberwolves are getting outscored by just 0.1 ppg and they have been much better at home despite being a game under .500 at the Target Center. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (510) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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03-13-17 | Bulls +7 v. Hornets | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
The inconsistency for Chicago continued yesterday as it lost in Boston on Sunday afternoon no thanks to scoring just nine first quarter points and never leading the game. That was the fifth straight loss for the Bulls which a season high but we are getting a favorable line based on the recent struggled. They were getting a half-point more yesterday against the Celtics which are 12.5-game better than the Hornets. Charlotte lost its last game against New Orleans in overtime and it has been an up and down over the last seven weeks as the Hornets are just 6-16 over their last 22 games and their home floor does not offer much of an advantage. They are four games over .500 at home but have covered just twice in their last 11 games here while going 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing straight up record. Additionally, Charlotte is just 4-10 this season when favored by six or more points. 10* (501) Chicago Bulls |
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03-11-17 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -5 | Top | 107-90 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
We played on Atlanta last night which snapped its five-game non-cover streak and now the Hawks hit the road to face an opponent similar to the situation it was just in. The Hawks have been a solid road team this season as they are three games over .500 but they are just 4-5 in their last nine road games following a five-game winning streak on the highway to open the month of January. Memphis has lost four straight games, failing to cover any of those and this is its longest losing skid of the season. This is a very good defensive team but that has been the issue of late including allowing an embarrassing 122 points to the Nets two games back. Memphis has won 21 games against the top 16 in the NBA which is good for the third most in the league which is a reason it is still ranked in the top ten in the power rankings. The Grizzlies were 17-8 following a loss prior to this recent run and the Hawks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (720) Memphis Grizzlies |
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03-11-17 | Duke v. Notre Dame +4.5 | Top | 75-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
**Approx. 9:00 ET Start** We lost with North Carolina last night as Duke overcame a 13-point second half deficit to stun the Tar Heels in a game that looked like it would be a blowout the other way. Duke shot 59 percent in the second half and it was its best half of basketball in a very long time. Now the Blue Devils will be out to win their fourth game in four days, something that no team has ever done in the ACC Tournament. Getting past an efficient Notre Dame team will be no easy task and once again, the Fighting Irish are getting little respect. They defeated Virginia and Florida St. as underdogs and they are once again in that role despite being the higher seed by two spots. We won that game against Virginia noting that Notre Dame would be the more motivated team based on a home loss to the Cavaliers by 17 points. Now it catches a similar scenario as the Irish lost at home to Duke by 10 points which happened to be their next home game after that Virginia loss. Those were the only two home losses all season. The Blue Devils are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as a favorite while the Irish are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (756) Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
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03-11-17 | Iowa State +3 v. West Virginia | Top | 80-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
**Approx. 6:00 ET Start** Iowa St. rolled over TCU on Friday as the Horned Frogs could not back up their huge win over Kansas and are now headed to the NIT. The Cyclones have different plans and will be out to win their third Big XII Championship in the last four years. This has been a very underrated team all season as they finished with just six conference losses, three coming by eight points combined and two coming against West Virginia so getting another crack at the Mountaineers is just what they want. West Virginia overcome a 12-point second-half deficit in winning against Kansas St. as the offense continues to struggle. The Mountaineers shot just 26.7 percent from the floor and have been held to 63 points or less in four of their last five games. The defense is the strength but even that has been concern, especially away from home. Friday was just like home for Iowa St., whose fans correctly refer to the Sprint Center as Hilton South as three-fourths of the sell-out crowd was backing the Cyclones which are now 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning straight up record. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. 10* (749) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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03-11-17 | Colorado State +4.5 v. Nevada | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
**Approx. 6:00 ET Start** Nevada is rolling along with eight straight wins and it has covered all of those games as well which is more impressive considering it has been favored in every one of those. The Wolf Pack come in favored once again but it is an overinflated number based on the streak and it has already gone up from opening. Nevada won the regular season MWC Championship on the final day when it defeated Colorado St. at home in the lone meeting between the two teams. It ended up being an easy victory for the Wolf Pack on their home floor where they suffered only one loss all season and they have not been nearly as dominant away from home against quality teams. The Rams fit that category as they took down San Diego St. last night and they have been nearly as hot, winning 12 of their last 14 games. The loss against Nevada was surprising considering how big it was but it was all due to cold shooting in the second half as the Rams actually carried a two-point lead into the half. We expect this game to come down to the final moments which makes the heavy line very underdog friendly. 10* (747) Colorado St. Rams |
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03-11-17 | Davidson v. Rhode Island -4 | Top | 60-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
**Approx. 1:00 ET Start** Rhode Island came through yesterday with a win over St. Bonaventure but it is still hanging on the bubble and has to continue its current run. While the Rams catch a Davidson team that is coming off an upset over Dayton, they would have been better off playing the Flyers which are the No. 27 ranked team in the RPI and that would have given them another opportunity for a quality win should they not gain the automatic bid with a championship. Rhode Island has won six straight games so peaking at the right time is on its side and going back, the Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning straight up record. The Wildcats pulled off the upset yesterday to get a quality win in their corner but that was the first of the season away from home. That was actually just the second victory of the entire season as underdogs against seven losses and the first away from home. The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog while the Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. 10* (734) Rhode Island Rams |
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