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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-01-16 | Magic v. Wizards | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
This line came out late due to the injury reports for both sides and while the list is bigger for Washington, the Wizards still have a significant edge based on the spot. After four straight victories to get back to .500, the Wizards have dropped two straight games including a two-point loss at Toronto last time out. The 7-8 home record is not attractive but five of those losses have come against Western Conference teams. Orlando meanwhile has won two straight games, both of which came at home and while the Magic have won two straight road games as well, this is just the third road game in three weeks. Orlando heads to Cleveland tomorrow so a potential lookahead is possible as well. Here, we play on favorites that are allowing 46 percent shooting or worse on the season, after a game allowing a shooting 35 percent or less. This situation is 26-4 ATS (86.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (802) Washington Wizards |
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01-01-16 | Iowa v. Stanford UNDER 53.5 | Top | 16-45 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 10 m | Show |
This game has the look and the feel of an ugly low scoring game which some people prefer. It looks pretty attractive to me considering this total is relatively high for this matchup and has actually gone up slightly since opening. The offenses have put up a ton of points this season on both sides but those came against some very poor defenses and mismatches. Iowa comes in with the 21st ranked total defense while Stanford comes in with the 46th ranked total defense. The Hawkeyes play a base defense and play it very well as they are in the top 25 nationally in rush defense, total defense and scoring defense. Going back, the Stanford offense struggles the majority of the time against Big Ten defenses. The Stanford defense is not as good but the Hawkeyes offense is not as good as the numbers it has put up as it has faced five defenses ranked 100th or worse. I don't see them having much success here. Both teams fall into two great under situations. First, we play the under involving two teams from major conferences on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. Second, we play the under where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better in major bowl games played in January. This situation is 52-20 (72.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (269) Iowa Hawkeyes/(270) Stanford Cardinal |
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01-01-16 | Notre Dame v. Ohio State OVER 56.5 | Top | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 47 h 6 m | Show |
Entering the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio St. comes in ranked 28th in scoring offense with 35.0 ppg while Notre Dame comes in 31st in scoring offense with 34.8 ppg. The defenses have been great on both sides, more so for the Buckeyes but this game has the feel that the offenses will be able to run the table. One big reason for this is the coaching as we have two great offensive minds and with so much time to prepare, it only adds to it. Starting with Notre Dame, its offensive balance (215.6 ypg rushing/256.3 ypg passing) has been an asset all season long and it can keep the Buckeyes defense off balance. One huge edge for the Fighting Irish offense is that Ohio St. is missing two senior starting defensive tackles as Tommy Schutt is out with an injury while Adolphus Washington has been suspended. Notre Dame running back could be back after missing the last game against Stanford which would be a big boost. On the other side, Ohio St. has been relying on the run but don't surprised to see Urban Meyer chance that here as air it our more as the injuries to the Notre Dame secondary makes it a huge weakness. While the Buckeyes have been a big under team this season, most of those took place at home and going back, they 8-1 to the over in their last nine games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg while going 11-2 to the over in their last 13 games with a total between 56.5 and 63. Meanwhile Notre Dame is 6-0 to the over in its last six games following an ATS loss. 10* Over (267) Notre Dame Fighting Irish/(268) Ohio St. Buckeyes |
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12-31-15 | Michigan State +10 v. Alabama | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -101 | 55 h 3 m | Show |
Not many seem to giving Michigan St. a chance in this game and the line is telling us a similar story but the Spartans match up pretty well with Alabama and have a legitimate shot at an upset as long as they do not shoot themselves in the foot. The Crimson Tide have one of the best defenses ever under head coach Nick Saban and that is saying a lot as there have been some outstanding stop units in Tuscaloosa. Slowing down the penetration of the Alabama defensive line is critical for the Spartans they have the talent on their offensive line to do so. That will help quarterback Conner Cook, who has declared himself as 100 percent healthy, be able to stay in the pocket and create some plays downfield. On the other side, Derrick Henry is a beast, but Alabama's offense plays into the hands of Michigan St.'s defense as the Spartans want you to run the ball because their defensive weakness is in the secondary. Alabama quarterback has done a solid job of running the offense but he has not been asked to make big plays in key situations and has not been a downfield threat all season. Michigan St. falls into a solid contrarian situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 125 or fewer rushing ypg, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. This situation is 53-25 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Michigan St. is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games against teams allowing 3.25 ypc or less and 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home against teams with a winning percentage of .7500 or better. 10* (259) Michigan St. Spartans |
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12-31-15 | Clippers v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 95-89 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The public is all over the Clippers here based on what looks like a fishy line but in reality, they are in a horrible spot tonight. Los Angeles won in Charlotte last night for its fourth straight win since the start of this roadtrip, the last three without the services of Blake Griffin. The Clippers were favored by a bucket last night against a 17-13 team coming in yet are getting a bucket tonight against a team that is 10-21. The Pelicans have been off since Monday after a 15-point loss in Orlando, their 15th road loss in 18 games. Things have been better at home where they are 6-2 following a 1-4 start and their 13 home games are tied for second fewest in the NBA so the schedule has not been on their side. Included in those victories are wins over San Antonio, Cleveland and Houston. The Clippers are 1-9 ATS in 10 games this season after scoring 100 points or more three straight games while going 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. 10* (510) New Orleans Pelicans |
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12-31-15 | Wolves v. Pistons -7 | Top | 90-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Detroit returns home following a loss in New York on Tuesday which was its third straight defeat, one short of a season high. However, the four-game skid came on a west coast roadtrip so the situation is more in their favor here. It has been an up and down season for the Pistons but it has been mostly up as they are still over .500 overall and are just five games back of Cleveland in the rugged Central Division. Minnesota is coming off a home win last night over Utah and while the road has actually better than home, the Timberwolves are catching the wrong team at the wrong time. More recent, they have lost six of their last seven road games, the lone win coming against 9-23 Brooklyn. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a home loss of 10 points or more, off a home win by 10 points or more. This situation is 106-60 ATS (63.9 percent) since 1996. Additionally, the Timberwolves are 13-29 ATS in their last 42 games playing with no rest while the Pistons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. 10* (504) Detroit Pistons |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma v. Clemson +4 | Top | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 51 h 54 m | Show |
This line opened anywhere from -1 to -3 pretty much across the board and now we are seeing a minimum of -3.5 everywhere as of early Tuesday. That is the number we wanted and will hit it with Clemson getting at least a hook over the key number. These are two of the best offenses in the country as Oklahoma is ranked 6th in total offense with Clemson coming in 11th in total offense, the difference being just over 30 ypg. Both teams are extremely balanced and have the ability to score anywhere from the field so there is no huge advantage either way. Defensively, Clemson is better by 54.5 ypg and there is a pretty big intangible involved here where the Sooners numbers are skewed. They won at Baylor and at home against TCU against backup quarterbacks and they won those by just 11 points combined. They rolled over Oklahoma St. in their final game but still allowed 457 total yards. Clemson has the 7th ranked passing efficiency defense and 23rd in rushing defense so the Tigers are balanced on that side of the ball as well. They defeated North Carolina by just eight points in the ACC Championship but completely dominated the yardage battle and held the Tar Heels to more than 100 yards below their season average. Some will point to motivation for the Sooners after getting thumped last season 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl but that has no bearing here as motivation is not an issue on either side and one team will not be more motivated than the other. This line should be more around a pickem so we will grab the inflated number here. 10* (262) Clemson Tigers |
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12-31-15 | Providence +7.5 v. Butler | Top | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
Providence is off to a solid start at 12-1, the lone defeat coming against Michigan St. in a game it was close in until the Spartans pulled away late because of a big free throw advantage. The Friars were expected to be good but have exceeded expectations which includes quality wins over Illinois and Arizona. Kris Dunn is a candidate for Player of the Year and his numbers are outstanding but it is the group behind him that has made this team even more solid. Ben Bentil (18.8 ppg and 8.0 rpg), Rodney Bullock (13.6 ppg and 7.5 rpg) and freshman Ryan Fazekas (7.9 ppg) keeps teams from solely worried about Dunn. Butler is off to its second best start ever as it is second in the nation in scoring but its fast tempo will not be daunting to the Friars which like to move it fast as well. The Bulldogs are 7-0 at home but this is by far their biggest test and that is proven with this line as they have been favored by at least 13 points in all seven home games. While this is always a tough venue, Providence knows it can win here as it has done each of the last two seasons and going back, the Friars have covered six straight road games. 10* (527) Providence Friars |
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12-31-15 | Houston v. Florida State UNDER 55.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
Prior to the two playoff games New Year's Eve, we have a solid matchup in the afternoon featuring Houston against Florida St. The Cougars were looking to crash the party but a loss at Connecticut knocked them out of any chance to think about a playoff berth. Still, they got a solid bowl against a solid opponent and while their offense has been potent, they will have a tough time here. Florida St. comes in ranked 16th in the nation in total defense and 5th in scoring defense and Houston has struggled against good defenses. It was held to 17 points against Connecticut and 24 points against Temple and those defenses are ranked 16th and 17th in scoring defense respectively. The Seminoles aren't going to scare anyone with their offense as taking out games against Texas St. and Chattanooga where they scored 59 and 52 points, their scoring averages drops from 32.3 ppg to 27.7 ppg which would put it 74th in the country. Houston typically is known for playing poor defense but the Cougars are 53rd overall and a very solid 20th in scoring defense, allowing just 20.5 ppg. This was a good one to wait out as the total has risen a couple points from opening. Both teams fall into a great low scoring bowl situation as we play the under in bowl games between teams from major conferences with winning percentages of .800 or better where the total is between 49.5 and 56. This situation is 46-16 (74.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (257) Houston Cougars/(258) Florida St. Seminoles |
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12-30-15 | Southern Illinois v. Loyola-Chicago -1.5 | Top | 72-62 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Loyola is off to a disappointing 7-5 start but it has faced a pretty difficult schedule this far and does bring in a 6-1 record at home. The Ramblers are expected to have another solid season as they return four starters and eight of their top nine scorers from last year's squad, which earned a postseason berth (CBI Champions) for the first time in 30 years. Loyola finished 87th in the final 2014-15 RPI report and its 205-spot improvement from the previous season was good for the third-biggest jump among Division I teams. Southern Illinois meanwhile had a rough season last year at 12-21 and has been picked to finish ninth in the 10-team MVC due to so many personnel losses. The Salukis however have exceeded expectations already and are just one win away from matching the 12 wins from last season. Because of the differing starts, we are catching a great number with the Ramblers. The fact that Southern Illinois is 4-0 on the road also helps immensely. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better where the line is +3 to -3 that have won 8 or more of their last 10 games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 35-12 ATS (74.5 percent( over the last five seasons. 10* (752) Loyola-Chicago Ramblers |
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12-30-15 | Louisville v. Texas A&M UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-21 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 28 m | Show |
This spread has shifted over a touchdown as Louisville has gone from a three-point underdog to a 4.5-point favorite which makes the side play unplayable at this point. The reason for the swing is because of Aggies quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray deciding to transfer out with Jake Hubenak taking over as the starter. While this hurts them to win and/or cover, it helps the under which has come down only three points. It is going to be difficult for the offense to get anything going as in his first season since transferring from Blinn College, Hubenak made four appearances and went 12 of 27 for 92 yards with one touchdown. Louisville played solid on defense this season and should prosper here. On the other side, the Aggies boasted a very strong defense as they finished 28th in points allowed and were exceptionally good against the pass, allowing just 161.2 ypg, good for 4th in the nation. They match up well here against a Louisville offense that did nothing from the start. The Cardinals problems stem from youth as the offense has used two true freshman tackles, a true freshman quarterback, three true freshman wide receivers, a redshirt freshman tight end and a redshirt freshman guard. It has been reported that during bowl practices, Louisville basically reinstalled its offense which is not a good sign for success. Louisville is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in its previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Aggies last eight games following a straight up loss. 10* Under (253) Louisville Cardinals/(254) Texas A&M Aggies |
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12-30-15 | Nets v. Magic -7.5 | Top | 93-100 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Orlando is one of the NBA's early season surprises as it is off to an 18-13 start after winning just 25 games all of last season. The Magic are just a game and a half behind Atlanta in the Southeast Division and a lot of the success can be attributed to the home floor where they are just two wins shy of matching last year's win total of 13. of their six home losses, four have come against teams ranked 13th or better in the power ratings. While they are 4-9 against the top 16, they are 14-4 against everyone else and the Nets fall into the everyone else category. Brooklyn is coming off an upset win over Miami on Monday, it second straight upset on the road but don't look for that run to continue. The Nets are just 3-12 on the road overall and they have won consecutive games only twice this season, going 2-6 following their first eight wins. Orlando falls into a spot where we play on teams that are +/- 3 ppg in scoring differential going up against teams that are between -3 to -7 ppg in scoring differential, after scoring 100 points or more four straight games. This situation is 43-21 ATS (67.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Magic are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games against losing teams and also 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a win by 15 or more points so no letdown is expected here. 10* (702) Orlando Magic |
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12-30-15 | Seton Hall v. Marquette -3 | Top | 83-63 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Marquette is coming off a horrible season, the first under head coach Steve Wojciechowski as the Golden Eagles went 13-19 overall including just 4-14 in the Big East. It was expected though as the cupboard was left bare by previous coach Buzz Williams to no fault of his own as players ran out of eligibility while others transferred out. Now that experience from last season is already helping as is one of the best recruiting classes in recent memory. Marquette is off to a 10-2 start which includes a nine-game winning streak as it heads into conference play. The Golden Eagles lead the Big East in both assists (18.8) and steals (8.6) per game and those marks are good enough for 14th and 23rd in the nation, respectively. Seton Hall is also off to a 10-2 start but expectations are not the same. The Pirates were ranked last season after a 12-2 start but they closed the season by going 4-13 and lost a ton of talent from that team. They are 1-1 on the road but the lone victory came against a very bad Rutgers team. While Marquette is just 2-6 ATS at home, it has been favored by at least 12.5 points six times, failing to cover four of those so now it gets a very manageable number tonight. 10* (740) Marquette Golden Eagles |
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12-30-15 | Rhode Island v. Brown +7.5 | Top | 88-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
While this would typically be a mismatch because of the huge size advantage down low, that is not the case tonight for Rhode Island. The Rams will likely be without junior forward Kuran Iverson as he injured his ankle in practice and he joined E.C. Matthews and Hassan Martin on the growing injury list. Iverson and Martin are the two top big men on the roster and they are the team's top two leading scorers. Rhode Island is now down to just two true big men in Earl Watson and Andre Berry. This bodes well for the guard heavy Bears ass they will not be at a disadvantage and may actually have an edge now as they have been led by Cedric Kuakumensah, who averages nearly a double-double per game with 13 ppg and 9.5 rpg and is also the Ivy Leagues all-time blocked shots leader. This is a big rivalry as this marks the 157th meeting and this is a good opportunity for Brown to snap the three-game series skid even though the line may not be saying the same thing. It has not been adjusted enough to take into account the injuries and going back, Brown is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games after failing to cover the spread while Rhode Island is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games. 10* (744) Brown Bears |
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12-30-15 | NC State v. Mississippi State OVER 60 | Top | 28-51 | Win | 100 | 50 h 54 m | Show |
This bowl, going back to the days of the Continental Tire Bowl and the Meineke Car Care Bowl, has produced some high scoring games and I project another one this season in the fifth edition of the Belk Bowl. It has been a mixed bag of over/unders for both NC State and Mississippi St. but the matchup between the two should produce some big offensive numbers. We have two exceptional quarterbacks taking the field today as the Wolfpack's Jacoby Brissett threw for 2,448 yards with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions while the Bulldogs Dak Prescott threw for 3,413 yards with 25 touchdowns and also just four interceptions. Overall, NC State has scored 34 or more points in eight of its 12 games and while the defense has put up some solid numbers, a lot of that is who it played against. When facing good offenses, the defense yielded 45, 34 and 56 points and the Bulldogs can take advantage as they fall into that category. Their defense is not nearly as good however, especially of late as Mississippi St. gave up 31, 50 and 38 points over its last three games. Prior to that, the Bulldogs played very poor offenses. We should see some big plays from both sides and because of that, this relatively smaller than expected total won't be an issue. The over is 11-3-1 in the Wolfpack's last 15 games following an ATS loss while the over is 4-0 in the Bulldogs last four games following a straight up loss. 10* Over (251) NC State Wolfpack/(252) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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12-30-15 | Memphis +3 v. Auburn | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 9 m | Show |
This was by far the worst season offensively under Gus Malzahn at Auburn as they finished 77th in the country with 27.2 ppg, and 95th in the nation with 367.3 ypg. A lot of that can be blamed on the fact that the Tigers were never able to find consistency from the quarterback position which continues here. Auburn has yet to name a starting quarterback in this game and while that could be a disadvantage for Memphis because of preparation, it is really telling us that the quarterback situation is a mess for Auburn. Defensively, Auburn was just as bad as it had one of its worst years in recent memory as it finished 91st in total defense and will surely struggle against this Memphis offense that is ranked 12th in yardage and sixth in points scored. Quarterback Paxton Lynch had a great season, throwing for 3,670 yards and 28 touchdowns and just three picks so there is a clear advantage at that position for Memphis. Additionally, defensive coordinator will Muschamp will not be coaching as he headed to South Carolina which further complicates matter for Auburn. Head coach Justin Fuente has moved on to Virginia Tech but there should not be much continuity lost as Darrell Dickey will be the interim head coach and he has been with Fuente during all four years at Memphis as the co-offensive coordinator so the offense will not suffer. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 52-21 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (249) Memphis Tigers |
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12-29-15 | Texas Tech v. LSU -7 | Top | 27-56 | Win | 100 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
It was a great start to the season for LSU as it was ranked second in the initial College Football Playoff rankings but then faced Alabama and was dominated in the trenches. That was the first of three straight losses but the Tigers defeated Texas A&M in their season finale which saved head coach Les Miles' job. While the season long goals have been lost, a win here is big to gain momentum going into next year while proving that keeping Miles was the smart move and the Tigers should no issues rolling in this matchup. Motivation should be pretty high for Texas Tech as well but motivation can only go so far when matchups are at a huge disadvantage. The Red Raiders test their second-ranked offense against a top-25 defense that is fast and athletic. The Tigers as mentioned struggled against Alabama while also struggling against a similar style in Arkansas but match up well against a spread offense as witnessed in the game against Texas A&M. The Red Raiders rank 126th out of 127 FBS teams in total defense, including giving up 273.3 ypg on the ground which is ranked 126th. That is where LSU is going to control the game as the running game behind Leonard Fournette will have a field day. Fournette rushed for 1,741 yards this year and his only bad games were the three losses but those were against rushing defenses ranked 1st, 16th and 28th. The Red Raiders allowed Texas to run for 403 yards on 8.4 ypc in their season finale and will get gashed again here. 10* (248) LSU Tigers |
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12-29-15 | Michigan State v. Iowa -3 | Top | 70-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Michigan St. enters its first true road test of the season as it heads to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten opener for both teams. The Spartans come in undefeated at 13-0 and ranked No. 1 in the nation in both polls by wide margins and while they deserve to be where they are, they are here because teams that were above them put up some early season losses. Not only is this the first true road test but it comes with the services of Denzel Valentine who is sidelined with an injury. Valentine has been sensational as he leads the team with 18.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and 7.1 apg. The Hawkeyes have three losses this season, al of which have been quality ones with losses to Iowa St. by a point, Notre Dame by six points and Dayton by five points. Those teams are a combined 27-6 and it is important to note that all of those games were away from home. This is a very deep and balanced team as Iowa has had nine different players score in double figures as it brings back four starters from last year's 22-12 team. There will some extra incentive for the Hawkeyes as they have had this game circled after the Spartans came in here last January and won by 14 points as they outscored the Hawkeyes 47-22 in the second half. While some may dispute this line, Iowa is favored for a reason. 10* (548) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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12-29-15 | Hawks v. Rockets -2.5 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
We won by playing against Atlanta last night and will go against the Hawks again tonight as they head to Houston for the second of a back-to-back set and third game in four nights. The loss snapped a six-game winning streak and while many will argue that they are good enough to rebound tonight, the situation is not good. The Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing with no rest and in three games this season where the second game was on the road, they lost the game outright by four points to Minnesota, 20 points to San Antonio and 13 points to Oklahoma City. The Rockets are also coming off a loss as they fell to New Orleans on the road but that was back on Saturday. The extra rest helps as does they fact they are back home where they have won seven straight and covered six straight, the last three coming against San Antonio, Charlotte and Los Angeles, all of which are at least four games over .500. Going back, Houston is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 while going 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after playing a game as a road favorite. 10* (508) Houston Rockets |
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12-29-15 | Baylor v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
We should see a highly motivated North Carolina team on Tuesday despite a tough finish to the season. North Carolina was picked to finish No. 5 in the Coastal Division after a 6-7 record in 2014 but the Tar Heels went undefeated in the ACC and lost a tough one against Clemson in the ACC Championship. The offense will be the key here as the Tar Heels ranked No. 20 in total offense, and actually led the Bears in yards per play (7.33 to 7.25). Quarterback Marquise Williams had a great season but was overshadowed by Deshaun Watson from Clemson and he presents big problems for Baylor as he is a duel threat signal caller. He has a bevy of receivers to throw the ball to and he also has Elijah Wood in the backfield who was a First Team All-ACC back after putting up 1,345 yards and 17 touchdowns. Baylor sophomore quarterback Chris Johnson has been clearly to play but he is far from the same player as Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham. Johnson has thrown for 220 yards and three touchdowns but his completion percentage is just 39.5 percent. Not only that but the Bears will be without Biletnikoff winner Corey Coleman. He has been by far the most targeted receiver as he has 34 percent of receptions, 37 percent of receiving yards and 74 percent of touchdown receptions. Additionally, All-Big XII running back Shock Linwood has been downgraded to doubtful. We have seen the line shift the other way but it is the right move and will not come into play. 10* (244) North Carolina Tar Heels |
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12-29-15 | Air Force v. California OVER 67 | Top | 36-55 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
There have been a large number of shootouts in the early bowl games and we should see another starting out on Tuesday. We have contrasting styles on offense going against each other here in the Armed Forces Bowl and both units have excellent matchups against the opposing defenses. California brings in the 9th ranked offense in the country including ranking fourth in passing offense and while the Air Force defense has been solid overall, the Falcons have struggled against the pass, allowing 8.4 ypa away from home and they haven't been overly tested in those games. The Golden Bears are ranked 110th in total yards including 104th in rushing defense so Air Force will have no issues moving the ball and that sets up the possibility of big plays through the air. While they do not throw it much, the Falcons are ranked 2nd in the nation in yards per completion at 21.23. California has allowed a gaudy 261 ypg on 5.7 ypc on the ground away from home this season so we should see some big plays. Air Force has been a big over team this season, surpassing the total in eight of 12 games. California has been a surprising under team this season based on the stats but the totals have been inflated in a lot of cases. The Golden Bears are 22-7-1 to the over in their last 30 non-conference games while the Falcons are 20-7 to the over in their last 27 games after covering the spread in three of their last four games. 10* Over (241) Air Force Falcons/(242) California Golden Bears |
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12-28-15 | Bengals v. Broncos -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Playoff implications are on the line tonight in Denver for both the Broncos and Bengals. Because of the Steelers loss yesterday, Cincinnati clinched the AFC North and still has a fighting chance for a No. 1 seed. While it may have been unheard of a few weeks ago, but the Broncos can actually miss the playoffs. That means this game means even more to Denver which can clinch a playoff berth with a win but would fall behind the Chiefs and Jets to No. 6 with a loss. Denver could finish anywhere from the top seed at 12-4 to out of the playoffs if the Steelers also finish 10-6 which is very possible as they play Cleveland next week. After three consecutive victories, the Broncos have dropped two straight despite winning the yardage battle in both. As a matter of fact, Denver has won the yardage battle in all five games quarterback Brock Osweiler has started. The Bengals won in San Francisco last Sunday and heading out west again puts them in a tough spot. This will be the first real test for quarterback A.J. McCarron who was solid against the 49ers, ranked last in ypa, but now faces a Broncos defense ranked first in that category. Denver falls into a great situation where we play on favorites in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off a road loss. This situation is 33-12 ATS (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Denver is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss. 10* (132) Denver Broncos |
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12-28-15 | Raptors v. Bulls -1.5 | Top | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
The Bulls won for us on Christmas Day but they could not capitalize on that momentum as they lost the next night in Dallas as they blew a late double-digit lead. Chicago now returns home where it has dropped two straight at the United Center including an embarrassing loss against Brooklyn as a double-digit favorite. They Bulls were 11-3 prior to those pair of losses and they catch Toronto at a good time in a very good matchup. The Raptors defeated Milwaukee on Saturday to secure their second straight win following a 1-3 stretch. They are a game up on the surging Celtics in the Atlantic Division but this is a very tough matchup tonight. Last season when Toronto was clearly much better than the Bulls, Chicago still swept the four-game season series. The Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win while the Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. Look for the Bulls to get back to their winning ways at home. 10* (712) Chicago Bulls |
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12-28-15 | Hawks v. Pacers -2 | Top | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Indiana snapped a three-game losing streak on Saturday with a win at Minnesota and while it was far from a quality victory, it provided some much needed confidence. The Pacers rallied as they outscored Minnesota 36-20 in the fourth quarter and they should be pretty hungry here. They lost their last home game back on December 23rd against Sacramento but are still 10-4 at home and look to get some payback against Atlanta after getting swept last season in the three-game season series. The Hawks are playing like the Hawks of last year as they have won six straight games while covering all but one of those but it should be noted they were favored in five of those games. The winning streak is giving us some excellent value with this number and Atlanta has gone just 4-7 against the NBA top ten while Indiana is 6-4 against the top ten teams in the league. Additionally, the Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (704) Indiana Pacers |
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12-28-15 | Pittsburgh v. Navy UNDER 53.5 | Top | 28-44 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
12 of the first 18 bowl games have gone over the total but we should start Monday with a low scoring game in the Military Bowl from Annapolis. We have a few factors on our side as both are slower paced teams and both prefer to run the ball more than they pass it. That is a pretty obvious statement for Navy but Pittsburgh is more of a running team as they rush it close to 60 percent of the time. It is important to keep the running game going which will give the Panthers an edge, or remaining close to even in time of possession so they do not wear down. Giving up only about 21.3 ppg, the Midshipmen rank 26th in the nation in scoring defense and Pittsburgh is not far back, allowing 24.6 ppg. Both teams fall into the same situation where we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are +/- 50 ypg in differential, in non-conference games. This situation is 44-14 (75.9 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. The teams are a combined 8-4 to the under when the total is between 48.5 and 55 while Navy is 25-8 to the under in its last 33 games against averaging 2 or more timer possession minutes while Pittsburgh is 27-11 to the under in its last 38 games away from home following a straight up loss. 10* Under (237) Pittsburgh Panthers/(238) Navy Midshipmen |
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12-27-15 | Blazers v. Kings -7.5 | Top | 98-94 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Portland is coming off an upset victory last night as the Blazers thumped Cleveland by 29 points on their home floor. The victory snapped a five-game slide, with all of those losses coming on the road where Portland is 5-14 on the season. That has been the issue for Sacramento as well as it has it is 4-10 on the highway but a much better 8-6 at home. The Kings have not played since Wednesday when they concluded a four-game roadtrip with a victory at Indiana and they have the big edge tonight based on that extended time off along with Portland playing just last night. Even more impressive for the Blazers win last night was they did it without Damian Lillard who has now missed three straight games and is questionable against for tonight. Going back, the Blazers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record and they fall into a negative situation where we play against underdogs after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 on the season. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (508) Sacramento Kings |
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12-27-15 | Packers +4.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 8-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the PACKERS for our Sunday Star Attraction. The Cardinals are still in position to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC but they need to win out while the Panthers would have to lose their final two games. Still, Arizona has clinched the division and can clinch a first round bye with a win here but Green Bay is not going to just roll over. The Packers have won three straight games to overtake the Vikings in the NFC North by a game and have clinched a playoff spot no matter what happens the rest of the season. The Packers still have a shot at a first round bye and they obviously have to win here to keep the hope alive going into Week 17. It's no surprise that the Cardinals have one of the best rushing defenses in the league, but their passing defense has been at the middle of the pack. Last week, the Cardinals defense suffered a huge blow when they lost safety Tyrann Mathieu for the season to a torn ACL. That is a big edge for Green Bay which has to tale advantage of the Arizona secondary. The passing game is part of a solid situation for Green Bay as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa going up against teams allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa, after allowing 5.5 or less ypa in two straight games. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, the Packers are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game while the Cardinals have failed to cover their last four games against winning teams. 10* (125) Green Bay Packers |
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12-27-15 | Browns +11 v. Chiefs | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the BROWNS for our NFL Game of the week. Kansas City is the first team in NFL history to lose five games in a row and then go on an eight-game winning streak and as impressive as that sounds, I am far from sold. The Chiefs have been outgained in three of their last four games including getting out-totaled last week in Baltimore by 89 yards despite a 20-point win. Turnovers have been the difference and those are nearly impossible to handicap and the turnover differentials puts Kansas City into a negative situation as explained later. Cleveland is coming off a blowout loss at Seattle last week but it was in a no win situation there as the Seahawks are starting to peak while the Browns were coming off three straight home games. The Chiefs have been double-digit home favorites twice this season and they failed to cover both times, losing one outright against the Bears. The turnover situation as mentioned is to play on road underdogs or pickems after two consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers going up against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better. This situation is 69-33 ATS (67.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Cleveland is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while going 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. 10* (117) Cleveland Browns |
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12-27-15 | Panthers v. Falcons +7 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the FALCONS for our Sunday Enforcer. As the public loads up on Carolina, we will gladly go against the Panthers again this week as they are in a situation that playing against undefeated teams this late in the season has performed exceptional. We played against Carolina last week and we were rewarded by a Giants massive comeback and late cover which was the second straight road game the Panthers won by just a field goal. While a win clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the game is just as big for the Falcons, if not bigger. While the chances are slim, Atlanta is still alive for the second Wild Card spot in the NFC but it does need help along the way. The Falcons snapped a six-game losing streak with a win last week against Jacksonville. Four of those losses came by four points or fewer so the streak was arguably skewed. The good news is that this is an early game and the team they are chasing, the Vikings, do not play until Sunday night. This is a big revenge game as well for Atlanta which got hammered at Carolina just two weeks ago 38-0. Teams that are undefeated after 13 or more games have covered just once in 13 games going back close to 40 year. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 6.0 or more yppl in two consecutive games while the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (110) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-27-15 | Patriots v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the JETS for our Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Do the Patriots really deserve to be favored here? Records will say yes as will the public backing but the fact of the matter is that the Jets are arguably just as good as New England at this stage of the season. New York has won four straight games to move up in the playoff standings and on the season, it is outgaining opponents by close to 50 ypg. The Patriots meanwhile are outgaining opponents by 67.6 ypg which is not far off from the Jets. New England is a win away from clinching the top spot in the AFC which is surely a big deal but the Jets are fighting for a playoff spot as they are currently on the outside looking in. That is a tough pill to swallow considering the Jets have won four straight games but slipped from the AFC's sixth seed down to its seventh on account of Pittsburgh's triumph over Denver, which gave the Steelers a tie-breaking superior record against common opponents. New England has a negative situation on its side as we play against road favorites that are averaging 27 or more ppg, after leading in their previous game by 21 or more points at the half. This situation is 43-16 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1983. New England is 0-6 ATS in it last six games after allowing 16 points or fewer in its last game while the Jets have covered four of their last five games against winning teams. 10* (122) New York Jets |
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12-27-15 | Steelers v. Ravens +10.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the RAVENS for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Steelers are surging as they have overtaken the Jets in the AFC Wild Card race thanks to a win over Denver last week. Pittsburgh has now won three straight games and the offense continues to pile up the points as it has scored 30 or more points in six straight games, five of which resulted in victories. But with that comes a price to pay as the Steelers are now massive road favorites over their biggest rival and it is definitely an overadjustment. Baltimore has been out of the playoff picture for a while now and are banged up all over the place but if there is one game it wants to win, this is certainly the one. This is the Ravens Super Bowl and they would like nothing more than to squash the Steelers playoff hopes. Despite losses in four of six games, the Ravens have won the yardage battle four times including in three of those losses and they have a shot to win the stats again this week. With nothing to lose, the Ravens should take plenty of shots deep with Kamar Aiken and Chris Givens regardless of who is playing quarterback. Here, we play against teams in the second half of the season that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 55-28 ATS (66.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (130) Baltimore Ravens |
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12-26-15 | Redskins v. Eagles -3 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
We waited on this game for a few reasons, the most important being waiting for a line move but unfortunately that did not come. However, that actually bodes well in this case as while we are not seeing a reverse line move, we are seeing no line movement despite the Redskins getting pounded the public. This is an elimination game for Philadelphia as a loss means it is done while a win means that it is back into a first place tie in the NFC East and then control its own destiny. If the Redskins lose Saturday, they can still make the playoffs by beating the Cowboys next week at AT&T Stadium but would need the Eagles to lose to the Giants as well. The Redskins have won two straight games, the first time all season they have won consecutive games and one of those came at home where they finished 6-2 but are just 1-5 on the highway. The Eagles home field edge has not been great this season for sure but they fall into a great situation where we play on home teams in a game involving two teams averaging between 335 and 370 ypg, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 49-28 ATS (63.6 percent) since 1983. Additionally, Washington is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in its previous game while Philadelphia is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games after allowing 35 points or more last game. 10* (104) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-26-15 | Indiana -2 v. Duke | Top | 41-44 | Loss | -111 | 54 h 50 m | Show |
Indiana is playing its first bowl game since 2007 and searching for its first bowl win since the 1991 Copper Bowl. If that isn't a motivator, I don't know what is. The Hoosiers finished just 6-6 on the season but they played a lot better than the record shows. They opened the season 4-0 and while the only good win was against Western Kentucky, it put them in place to get ot the postseason. Indiana went on to lose six straight games, five against elite teams, and that includes losses against Ohio St., Iowa and Michigan by 7, 8 and 7 points and those teams finished a combined 32-5. The Hoosiers needed two wins to close the season to become bowl eligible and they did just that with blowout wins over Maryland and Purdue, both on the road. While they were outgained overall on the season, they were not outgained as much as Duke was. The improbable loss against Miami took the wind out of the Blue Devils sails as that started a four-game losing streak and the final three losses were bad ones. They did defeat Wake Forest on the road to end the season but that was by just six points. Duke should have some success a poor Indiana defense but the key here is on the other side where Indiana averaged 490.8 ypg, good for 17th in the nation and best in the Big Ten by a substantial amount. Balance is the key as Indiana averaged over 200 ypg on the ground and over 285 ypg through the air. Duke finished 46th in total defense and 45th in scoring defense, pretty decent but not good enough to stop the Hoosiers offense. 10* (231) Indiana Hoosiers |
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12-26-15 | Miami (Fla) v. Washington State -2.5 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 53 h 36 m | Show |
Washington St. was picked by many to finish at or near the bottom of the Pac 12 North but the Cougars had an awesome season with an 8-4 record, their most wins since 2003. And it could have been better. They opened the season with an inexcusable loss against Portland St. of the FCS but bounced back strong. Losses against California and Stanford were by just six and two points respectively and some of the wins were quality as they defeated Oregon, Arizona, Arizona St. and UCLA. Washington St. did get hammered in the Apple Cup against Washington as it lost by 35 points but I expect that to be a huge motivator against Miami. The Hurricanes also finished 8-4 and they closed the season 4-1 after head coach Al Golden was fired. Three of those wins were by six points or less and all against teams not as good as Washington St. Miami was horrible on defense for most of the season and they will be in trouble here and you have to look at two games to prove that. The Hurricanes allowed 58 points to Clemson and 59 points to North Carolina, two of the best offenses they faced and Washington St. is ranked right up there with them. With a new coach coming in after this game, motivation could be in question for the Hurricanes but on the other side, Washington St. hasn't won a bowl game since defeating Texas in the Holiday Bowl in 2003 so motivation will not be an issue for the Cougars. 10* (228) Washington St. Cougars |
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12-26-15 | Connecticut v. Marshall UNDER 44.5 | Top | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 49 h 21 m | Show |
Seven of the first 10 bowl games going into Thursday have gone over the total but the first game on Saturday has the potential to be a snoozer. When you think Marshall, you typically think offense but that wasn't the case this season as the Thundering Herd averaged 401.3 ypg which was 64th in the nation and while they ranked 43rd in scoring offense, they will be tested here. Connecticut allowed just 352.3 ypg which was 34th in the nation and it allowed only 19.8 ppg, good for 16th lowest. The Huskies held some prolific scoring teams to season lows and we should see another strong effort here. On the other side, the Huskies averaged just 318.4 ypg and 17.8 ppg, 119th and 118th respectively in the country. They scored more than 20 points only three times and will face a Marshall defense that allowed just 372.3 ypg and 18.4 ppg, 47th and 13th respectively. That unit is good enough to keep Connecticut in check for sure. We are seeing a low total here but it is for good reason and should prove to not be low enough. Here, we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams (Connecticut) where the total is between 42.5 and 49 that are averaging between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 and 4.8 yppl, after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. This situation is 53-22 (70.7 percent) to the under since 1992. The under is 10-1 in the Huskies last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the Under is 6-0 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the under is 6-0 in the Thundering Herd's last six games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. 10* Under (225) Connecticut Huskies/(226) Marshall Thundering Herd |
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12-25-15 | Spurs v. Rockets +7.5 | Top | 84-88 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
We played against San Antonio and lost on Wednesday as the Spurs rolled over Minnesota by 25 points. That was the seventh consecutive win for San Antonio to improve to 25-5 on the season and they once again come in as big favorites on Christmas Day. They were favored by 11 over the Timberwolves and are now favored by just seven points less which is a smaller than expected adjustment despite the disappointing start from the Rockets. Houston sits at .500 following a loss against Orlando on Wednesday and while the home floor has not been completely dominated like it used to, the Rockets have won six straight games here. Going back to last season, Houston is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games after a non-conference game and it is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Spurs are just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 divisional games. 10* (508) Houston Rockets |
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12-25-15 | Bulls +9 v. Thunder | Top | 105-96 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
Chicago has dropped three straight games including a horrible home defeat in its last game at home against the Nets as a double-digit favorite. The skid started following a four-overtime loss against the Pistons and that game really knocked them out as that was the start of a three-game in a four-day stretch. Now they have had four days to rest and regroup and should be a different team today. The Thunder have won three straight games and going back, they have won nine of their last 10 games to take control of the Northwest Division with a seven-game lead over Utah. Oklahoma City has split its last six games against the number and we are catching another inflated one at home where the Thunder have covered just four of their last 11 games. The Bulls fall into a solid situation where we play on road teams that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against team allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 100 points or more two straight games. This situation is 94-52 ATS (64.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (503) Chicago Bulls |
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12-24-15 | Chargers +6 v. Raiders | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
Two teams out of playoff contention square off in a divisional matchup Thursday as San Diego heads to Oakland following an emotion win in what could have been its last game in the city of San Diego. Normally, that could spell a letdown but in this case, the Chargers have momentum in a game they want to win. Oakland took the first meeting in San Diego despite the Chargers winning the yardage battle and yet they are getting disadvantaged with this line. Divisional games that have two fairly equal teams playing tend to be a pickem game on a neutral field so the home team is typically a favorite by a field goal but the Raiders are well above that for no apparent reason. Despite a 4-10 record, the Chargers are actually outgaining opponents by an average of 20 ypg as they have suffered close losses and other losses where they have outgained their opponent. The Chargers have covered four straight road games while the Raiders have covered just once in their last five home games and we have a situation on our side where we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (101) San Diego Chargers |
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12-24-15 | Middle Tennessee State v. Western Michigan OVER 64.5 | Top | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
This has the potential to be one of the higher scoring games even though we have already seen our share of offensively dominated matchups. Middle Tennessee averages 458.7 ypg and 34.3 ppg which are 30th and 34th in the nation respectively and it is coming off a pair of high output games to close the season. The defense allowed just seven points in those games but they were against non-bowl teams and while the stop unit has allowed a respectable 25.1 ppg, the Blue Raiders have allowed 41 ppg against bowl teams. Western Michigan can certainly take advantage as it averages 480.9 ypg and 35.3 ppg, which are 22nd and 27th in the country respectively. They were held in check only a few times this season but those came against some elite defenses. The Broncos defense played poor down the stretch and overall they ranked 78th in total defense and 77th in scoring defense. The game features some of the top receivers in the country you have never heard of. Western Michigan's Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman have over 1,200 yards receiving each this season while Middle Tennessee's Richie James and Ed Batties have combined to catch 177 passes for 2,180 yards and 19 touchdowns this year. Middle Tennessee falls into a situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that average 440 ypg, after outgaining their opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 67-33 (67 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (221) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders/(222) Western Michigan Broncos |
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12-23-15 | Spurs v. Wolves +11.5 | Top | 108-83 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
The Spurs have won and covered six straight games and are now laying double-digits on the road which is a rarity against a team not names Philadelphia. San Antonio has the second best record in the NBA behind Golden St. and is a clear public team at this point, thus the large number. Minnesota lost at Boston in its last game on Monday which snapped a two-game winning streak. The home floor has not been kind to Minnesota this season but we won with the Timberwolves in their last home game against Sacramento. The Spurs are 8-5 on the road but are coming off a four-game homestand and have a date at Houston on Christmas Day. The Timberwolves fall into a situation where we play against road favorites of 10 or more points that are outscoring their opponents by nine or more ppg. This situation is 57-28 ATS (67.1 percent) since 1996. Additionally, the Timberwolves are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (714) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-23-15 | Georgia Southern +7.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 58-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a great setup for Georgia Southern as there are plenty of solid angles on their side. First off, this is the first ever bowl game for the Eagles which finished solo third in the Sun Belt Conference this season after going 8-0 last season but were denied a bowl game because it was their first year as a fulltime FBS member. That is good enough motivation alone. They are a rushing dog and a big one at that as Georgia Southern averages 355.6 ypg on 6.5 ypc, both of which are best in the country. Bowling Green also possesses a potent offense but from a passing standpoint as the Falcons are led by quarterback Matt Johnson who finished second in the country in passing yards. The Falcons will be without head coach Dino Babers who took the head coaching job at Syracuse and coming from a Baylor background, he will be missed. Granted, the Eagles are also working with an interim coach as Willie Fritz moved on to take over the coaching job at Tulane but the impact should not be as big in this offense. Georgia Southern got clobbered in its last game against Georgia St. so it will be out to end the season on a high note and going back, the Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. Meanwhile, Bowling Green is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after a game where they forced five or more turnovers. 10* (219) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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12-23-15 | Mavs -3 v. Nets | Top | 119-118 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Brooklyn snapped a five-game losing streak with a road win at Chicago on Monday, which was just its second road win of the season. The Nets are now 8-20 overall and they have won consecutive games only twice all season and are 3-9 against the Western Conference on the season. Dallas lost in Toronto last night but expect a big effort tonight before heading back home for a three-game homestand. The Mavericks have struggled against the top teams in the league as they are just 2-7 against the top ten but are 11-4 against teams ranked in the bottom half of the NBA. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games playing with no rest and they fall into a great situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a road loss going up against an opponent off a road win by three points or less. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (711) Dallas Mavericks |
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12-23-15 | Celtics v. Hornets -2 | Top | 102-89 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Charlotte has lost four of its last five games and the lone victory was a fortunate one as it beat Toronto in overtime due to a reversed call because of a timeout to end regulation. Three of those losses came on the road and the other home loss came against these Celtics so there will be some payback in store fro tonight. Boston snapped a three-game skid with a home win over Minnesota on Monday to get back to two games over .500 and remain two games behind Toronto in the Atlantic Division. Charlotte falls into a solid situation we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive overs, that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 28-6 ATS (82.4 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Hornets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (704) Charlotte Hornets |
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12-22-15 | Detroit v. Western Kentucky -3.5 | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
We are catching a solid number with Western Kentucky at home as the Hilltoppers look to bounce back from a weekend blowout loss at Louisville by 22 points. That was their second blowout loss of the season but the other was against No. 6 Xavier. Detroit meanwhile has won four straight games while covering all of those as well and that stretch is helping with keeping the spread low. Not counting neutral court games, home teams are a perfect 17-0 in Detroit and Western Kentucky games this season so the home floor has been a huge edge. I expect that to continue tonight as this is the Titans first true road game in three weeks. Going back, Detroit is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games while the Hilltoppers are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a straight up loss. 10* (554) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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12-22-15 | Grizzlies v. 76ers +10 | Top | 104-90 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Memphis won for us on Saturday which snapped a two-game slide for the Grizzlies to move to back over .500 on the season overall. They are just 6-8 on the road however including losses in three straight games. Playing Philadelphia is always a tough one to get up for and we saw this in the first meeting last month when Memphis had a lethargic eight-point win at home. Obviously, the Sixers are having a historically bad season and of late, they have had trouble staying close as they have not covered a game since December 1st. The schedule has had a lot to do with that however as Philadelphia has played the second toughest schedule in the league. Only nine of its 29 games have been played against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league, which is where Memphis sits, and the Sixers have covered over half of those. The Sixers fall into a great situation where we play against favorites of 10 or more points after allowing 85 points or less going up against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more four straight games. This situation is 62-32 ATS (66 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Memphis is 1636 ATS in its last 52 games as a double-digit favorite while the Sixers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Western Conference. 10* (502) Philadelphia 76ers |
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12-22-15 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 81-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
These teams are coming off different results on Saturday as Iowa St. was upset by a bucket against Northern Iowa on a neutral floor in Des Moines while Cincinnati defeated VCU on the road. The loss by the Cyclones was their first on the season and I expect them to bounce back here even though this is a tough environment to play their first road game. The Bearcats are a very solid team defensively but taking a loss at the home loss to Butler shows that a strong offense can be a problem for them. Butler is No. 2 in the country in scoring while Iowa St. is No. 22. Cincinnati is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points while the Cyclones are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning straight up record. 10* (537) Iowa St. Cyclones |
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12-22-15 | Xavier v. Wake Forest +7.5 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Xavier is up to No. 6 in the country as it moved to 11-0 following its 24-point win over Auburn on Saturday which was its 10th consecutive double-digit victory. Because of the domination, the Musketeers have covered seven straight games so the lines need to be adjusted and it is starting with this one on the road, their first true road game during the ATS streak. Wake Forest will be a test for Xavier as the Demon Deacons are off to an 8-3 start which includes upset wins over Indiana and UCLA. They have won three straight home games and the fact that they have failed to cover three straight games is also helping with this number. The Demon Deacons are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning straight up record while going 17-6 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite. 10* (544) Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
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12-22-15 | Akron v. Utah State UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
This total has come down slightly but we should be in for a pretty vanilla game from each offense which squares off against pretty solid defenses. Neither team has played a ton of potent offenses but both of these units fall into the same category of what they both faced this season. Akron is ranked 97th in total offense while Utah St. comes in only slightly better at 91st and as far as points, both are in the lower half as well. On the other side, the defenses are clearly the better units as the Zips are ranked 17th in total defense while the Aggies are 22nd which is the main reason this total is as low as it is. Akron linebacker Jatavis Brown led the MAC in sacks with 10.5 and tackles for loss with 17.5, while leading the team in tackles at 108. For Utah St., linebackers Kyler Fackrell and Nick Vigil both made first-team all-MWC, and Vigil leads the Aggies with 140 tackles and 12.5 tackles for loss. Utah St. quarterback Chuckie Keeton is back but he is far from the same start quality quarterback from a couple years ago. He came back for the final two games and once again looked really shaky down the stretch as was just 34-of-72 for 352 yards with only one touchdown and one interception. Akron has gone under in its last six non-conference games away from home while Utah St. has gone under in six of its last seven December games. 10* Under (213) Akron Zips/(214) Utah St. Aggies |
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12-21-15 | Thunder v. Clippers +2 | Top | 100-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Oklahoma City lost in Cleveland last Thursday and took out its frustrations on the Lakers in its next game as it rolled to a 40-point victory. Now the Thunder hit the road again where they are under .500 on the season but come in as favorites here and they shouldn't be. Their 5-6 road record includes only two wins against a winning team (15-14 Memphis, 15-2 Orlando) with all six losses coming against teams .500 or better. The Clippers are coming off a pair of losses on the road over the weekend at San Antonio and at Houston. While the home floor hasn't been exceptional, Los Angeles has won five of its last six home games and while they have failed to cover at home against any winning teams, they have only been a home dog twice, one that resulted in a push and the other coming against Golden St. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600, where the line is +3 to -3 coming off 2 or more consecutive road losses, playing a winning team. This situation is 68-34 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (718) Los Angeles Clippers |
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12-21-15 | Pacers +8.5 v. Spurs | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
We played against Indiana on Saturday as it was defeated at Memphis following a three-game winning streak and it has now lost four straight games on the road. The Pacers are tied with Miami for the second best record in the Eastern Conference and while they are under .500 on the road, they are outscoring opponents by close to a bucket per game. The line is this big because of their opponent however as the Spurs are 15-0 at home and have been beating most teams pretty badly but this will be the best team they have faced at home this season. Taking nothing away from what San Antonio has done but it has played the second easiest schedule in the NBA and this will be one of the deepest and most balanced roster they have faced. The Pacers are 10-2 ATS this season when playing against teams with a winning record and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss. Look for a great battle here. 10* (713) Indiana Pacers |
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12-21-15 | Lions v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Unfortunately for the Saints, their playoff hopes were closed yesterday with wins by the Vikings and Seahawks so while the motivation may not be as high as normal, playing at home keeps us on their side. New Orleans is 3-3 at home with one loss coming against undefeated Carolina by a field goal in its last home game and another coming against Tennessee in overtime. The Saints have thrived in these situations as they have covered six of their last eight Monday night games. The Lions had a three-game winning streak to end the month of November to slightly get back into the playoff picture but they have dropped their last two games, the first being the Hail Mary defeat to the Packers and that has completely deflated them. That certainly helps the New Orleans being officially eliminated from the playoffs. The Lions are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 road games against teams with a losing home record. Here, we play against Monday night road teams with a winning percentage of .650 or worse that are coming off a loss as a favorite of a touchdown or more going up against teams coming off a win in non-divisional games. This situation is 17-3 ATS (85 percent) since 1990. And speaking of Monday nights, there is another fantastic situation on the New Orleans side as we play on favorites that are coming off a win by seven points or less over a division rival, when playing on Monday night. This situation is 22-5 ATS (81.5 percent) since 1983. 10* (332) New Orleans Saints |
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12-21-15 | Wolves v. Celtics -8 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
The Celtics are in a slide as they have dropped three straight games to fall two games behind Toronto in the Atlantic Division. They are just a game over .500 after the skid but those three losses were all against teams at least four games over .500 and going back, their last seven losses have come against winning teams including San Antonio and Golden St. Boston is 7-6 at home with all six losses coming against winning teams so it is catching Minnesota at a good time. The Timberwolves buried the Nets on the road yesterday to make it two straight games but like the Celtics, they have struggled against the good teams as only four of their 11 wins have comes against winning teams, none since November 25th. The Timberwolves are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while the Celtics are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (704) Boston Celtics |
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12-21-15 | Western Kentucky v. South Florida OVER 65.5 | Top | 45-35 | Win | 100 | 100 h 2 m | Show |
This has the potential to be a shootout as these offenses are two that are capable of big plays. Combined, they average 77 ppg which shows the linesmakers are keen on these defenses and there is no reason to be. The offenses are both ranked in the top 40 in offensive efficiency and the end of the season saw even greater numbers. Western Kentucky has averaged 52.3 ppg over its last three games while South Florida has averaged 51 ppg over the same stretch with two of the three games for each team coming against other bowl teams. On the other side, the Hilltoppers are ranked 60th in total defense while the Bulls are 37th in total defense so while both are above average, neither are dominant enough to hold down the opposing offenses. This total is the second highest of the season for the Bulls but the last one easily went over and as for Western Kentucky, this is on the low side and for the season, the Hilltoppers have gone over the total in nine of 12 games when the over/under is 62 or higher. The good thing is that this is an early bowl game so there is not a ton of time off which can often hurt an offense. Western Kentucky is 13-4 to the over after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games while South Florida is 5-2 to the over after scoring 40 or more points. 10* Over (211) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers/(212) South Florida Bulls |
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12-20-15 | Cardinals v. Eagles +3.5 | Top | 40-17 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 12 m | Show |
This game was moved to primetime with the flex schedule and that greatly benefits the Eagles. Left for dead after a blowout loss on Thanksgiving, Philadelphia has won two straight games and while far from dominating, this team needed a boost of confidence. The Eagles are tied with the Redskins and Giants in the NFC East so there is still plenty to lay for. Arizona has been playing well all season and is currently riding a seven-game winning streak. The Cardinals have already clinched a playoff spot and can clinch the NFC West with a victory but it will not come easy here. They defeated the Eagles at home last season but were outgained by 121 yards as Philadelphia racked up 521 yards of offense. While there has been talk about how Sam Bradford does not fit well into this offense but it needs to be noted that the Eagles are 6-2 in games he's started and finished. He will be facing a Cardinals defense that blitzes the most in the league but he has a very quick release and has been sacked only once this season when seeing a blitz. The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 29 or more ppg while the Cardinals are 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. 10* (318) Philadelphia Eagles |
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12-20-15 | Kings v. Raptors -5 | Top | 104-94 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
We played against Sacramento on Friday and will be going against the Kings once again here as I feel they are again getting too much respect for no apparent reason. They are six games under .500 which includes a miserable 2-9 record on the road and yet are catching a small number here. The Kings were favored in Minnesota on Friday which was the call by linesmakers and in this situation on Sunday, they are just 4-9 ATS this season as single-digit underdogs. The Raptors snapped a two-game slide with a win at Miami Friday and they bring in a, 8-4 home record into Sunday. They have won four straight games here and the four losses have been by a total of 11 points so the record could even be better. Toronto was a two-point favorite in Sacramento last month which would equate to it being roughly an eight-point favorite at home based on the venue change so you can see the value we are getting in this number. The Raptors lost that game as they blew a late double-digit lead so they will be out for some payback tonight at home, something they have been good at as Toronto is 10-2 ATS revenging a loss this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (512) Toronto Raptors |
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12-20-15 | Broncos +7 v. Steelers | Top | 27-34 | Push | 0 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the Denver Broncos for our Sunday Ultimate Underdog. The Broncos are coming off their first loss with Brock Osweiler after winning his first three starts. The offense has been average at time but despite the loss last week, they outgained Oakland by 184 total yards as the offense generated 310 yards but the defense has been the story which has been the case all season. Denver allowed just 126 yards last week and for the season, the Broncos are allowing an average of 272.5 ypg, by far the best in the league while allowing 17.3 ppg, also tops in the NFL. The Steelers are allowing nearly 100 yards more per game even though the point total has been solid. Overall, these teams are relatively equal which makes this spread too high with a lot of that due to the fact of Pittsburgh defeating Cincinnati last week by 13 points but was outgained by the Bengals. The Broncos fall into a great situation where we play on road underdogs or pickems after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Going back, the Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss while the Steelers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. 10* (327) Denver Broncos |
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12-20-15 | Falcons +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 94 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the Atlanta Falcons for our NFL Game of the Year. It has been quite the tumble for Atlanta which has lost six straight games after a 5-1 start. Obviously last week was the worst of the bunch as they fell 38-0 to Carolina, the best team in the NFL and prior to that, four of the previous five losses were by four points or less. Losing is losing and there should be no excuses but at 6-7, the Falcons are still not out of the playoff picture although it is bleak which makes this a must win game. Jacksonville has been favored in each of its last four true home games (not counting Buffalo in London) and it split those. The Jaguars destroyed the Colts last week but they were cooked after Matt Hasselbeck went down. They are now just a game out of the AFC South so this is a big game for them as well. This, this is not a favorable spot and they are overvalued. Atlanta has dropped nine straight games against the number which makes this a huge contrarian value play. Atlanta falls into a simple yet phenomenal situation where we play on road teams after five or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a losing record. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Atlanta is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games coming off a road loss by 21 or more points while Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games against NFC opponents. 10* (307) Atlanta Falcons |
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12-20-15 | Panthers v. Giants +4.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the New York Giants for our Sunday Enforcer. We played against Carolina two games ago as it failed to cover but snuck out a win at New Orleans. The Panthers bounced back last week to get back to dominating as they defeated Atlanta 38-0 in a game that was over before it started. They face another road test this week against the Giants which are fighting for a divisional title following a win over Miami on Monday night. We won with the Giants then and this is a much better team than the record shows. As mentioned last week, close losses have been the story all season as an incredible statistic shows that if games were only 58:45 long, the Giants would be 11-2 this year. For an NFL record, they have given up five fourth quarter leads in the final two minutes. That tells a lot. While Carolina is the best team in the NFL, the Giants cannot be discounted here as they are getting a ton of value as they are catching the same number of points that the Saints did at home and New York is the better team. Here, we play against road favorites that are allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing nine points or less last game. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 1983. 10* (320) New York Giants |
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12-20-15 | Monmouth v. Rutgers +11 | Top | 73-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Well it's safe to say that the secret is out on Monmouth. Known prior for their bench antics, the Hawks now have the reputation of being a very good basketball team that has not been fearful of their non-conference schedule, only to relish it and take down some big opposition. Wins over UCLA, Notre Dame, USC and Georgetown are very impressive but those can be cases where Monmouth caught extra fire while the power teams looked past the Hawks. Don't expect Rutgers to look past them as they cannot afford to. Rutgers is 4-2 at home with losses coming against Seton Hall and Wake Forest, two power conference teams. As good as Monmouth has been, it is very beatable, just ask Canisius, and there is no way the Hawks should be favored by this many points on the road against a team from a power conference no matter where the latter falls in the pecking order. All the notoriety they have received, from the upsets to the "Bench Mob", has overinflated this line. As a comparison, the Hawks were favored by the same amount over Niagara which has won just 18 games over the last three seasons combined. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 as a favorite or pickem after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .400 and .499. This situation is 68-32 ATS (68 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (526) Rutgers Scarlet Knights |
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12-19-15 | Jets v. Cowboys +3.5 | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
We waited on this game hoping to get a line move our way but that likely will not happen until later in the day toward gametime. The Jets are a huge public consensus play this week and while the line has moved slightly, it has not moved as much as expected and that is actually working in our favor as New York will get loaded up even more. The Jets are fighting for a playoff position at 8-5 following three straight victories but now comes in as a road favorite for the fourth consecutive time. Two of those games resulted in losses while the third should have been a loss against the Giants. The first road win over the Colts was solid but they won the yardage battle by just one yard and the other road win was a win in London over the Dolphins. Despite a 4-9 record, Dallas is getting outgained by just nine ypg on the season and a few bounces its way, the record could be better. The Cowboys blew a big lead against Atlanta early in the season, lost two games in overtime while losing three other games by a single possession. Dallas falls into a great situation where we play against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 23 and 27 ppg, after allowing 9 points or less last game. This situation is 29-9 ATS (76.3 percent) since 1983. The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record while the Cowboys are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games after a loss by 14 or more points. 10* (304) Dallas Cowboys |
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12-19-15 | Pacers v. Grizzlies | Top | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Indiana defeated the Nets last night for its third straight victory, all of which came at home. The Pacers are now in second place in the Eastern Conference thanks to a 10-3 record at home. They are just 6-6 on the road and have dropped three straight games on the highway. Memphis meanwhile is coming off a loss at Dallas last night, its second straight loss and fourth defeat in five games, Three of those have come on the road however and while the Grizzlies are just 8-6 at home, anything with a short price like this is a must. They are 7-3 ATS as favorites of fewer than five points while going 0-5 ATS when favored by more. They have a great situation on their side as we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are a loss going up against an opponent off a road loss against a division rival. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Indiana is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after scoring 100 points or more three straight games. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing with no rest while the Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games playing with no rest. 10* (708) Memphis Grizzlies |
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12-19-15 | San Jose State v. Georgia State +3 | Top | 27-16 | Loss | -117 | 57 h 12 m | Show |
I have brought up motivation before and will do so again and that is a factor in this game a well. Georgia St. is a pretty amazing story this season as after going 1-23 the last two seasons, its first two as a full FBS member, and being picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference, the Panthers won their last four games to make it to their first ever bowl game. The turnaround from the start of the season to the end of the season was one of the best in the nation and it can be attributed to the offense led by quarterback Nick Arbuckle who is less than 100 yards away from breaking the all time SBC record for total offense. San Jose St. has no business being here as it defeated only four FBS teams this season and three of those teams finished a combined 9-28. This is the clear example of why there are too many bowl games and while the Spartans may be excited to have their season extended, this is not a good position for them to be in. Georgia St. falls into a great situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 50-19 ATS (72.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (208) Georgia St. Panthers |
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12-19-15 | BYU +2.5 v. Utah | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -100 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
For the first time in its history, the BYU football program is in the middle of a bowl week being led by an outgoing coach. It is a big positive that Bronco Mendenhall is sticking around for this game instead of heading right to Virginia. "I can't wait to play in the bowl game because of how hard we're going to fight for this guy," wide receiver Mitch Mathews told the media after the BYU athletic department accepted the bowl invitation. This is a huge rivalry that was unfortunately cut off a couple years ago and there will be plenty of motivation on both sides. The Cougars closed the season strong by winning seven of their last eight games with the lone loss coming against Missouri by just four points. Utah meanwhile moved up to No. 3 in the country but that was short lived as the Utes closed the season by going 3-3 while getting outgained in four of those. Utah has played a tougher schedule and is arguably the better team but the motivator here is winning this game for Mendenhall as this will be his 100th win as the BYU head coach. Additionally, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 34 or more ppg against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after a win by 21 or more points. This situation is 75-36 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (203) BYU Cougars |
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12-19-15 | Arizona v. New Mexico +9.5 | Top | 45-37 | Win | 100 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
Motivation plays a huge role in bowl games and Arizona will not have much here. Picked to contend in the Pac 12 South, the Wildcats were a major disappointment. After a 3-0 start, they were blown out at home against UCLA and that set the tone for the rest of the season. Arizona lost four of its last five games and it has not won a game in regulation since October 17th and that was by just a touchdown against Colorado. New Mexico on the other hand is extremely excited to be in this game as it is not only its first bowl game since 2007, it is a virtual home game since it is being played at its home stadium. The Lobos were a pleasant surprise for sure and while the numbers aren't great, the one thing they do well which is important is run the ball exceptionally well, averaging 249.2 ypg on 5.3 ypc. Arizona has had trouble stopping the run this season which makes the Lobos a "rushing dog" in a bowl game which is a huge advantage. If this game were being played in September, Arizona would likely roll but the scenario is completely different here. 10* (202) New Mexico Lobos |
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12-19-15 | Oral Roberts v. LSU -10.5 | Top | 77-100 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
It has been a very difficult start for LSU as it currently sits at 5-4 after coming into the season as a top 25 team in the first AP Poll. Expectations were high for the Tigers with five star freshman Ben Simmons already off to a fantastic start while another freshman, Antonio Blakeney, is averaging 11.4 ppg. They are two of five players averaging double figures and while that may be skewed since Keith Hornsby has only played two games, he averaged 13.4 ppg last season and his return is huge. He missed the first seven games after undergoing hernia surgery. The Tigers are coming off a blowout win over Gardner Webb, not exactly the best of competition, but it was a needed victory after losing two overtime games and another by a single point against Marquette. Two problems for this team has been defense and rebounding but they excelled in both on Wednesday and they catch another opponent they should be able to match. Oral Roberts is 8-4 and all four losses have been by at least 16 points on the road. The Golden Eagles are an above average team in their own conference but cannot matchup against a power conference team especially getting outrebounded overall, are shooting just 43.2 percent on the season and are horrible at forcing turnovers. Oral Roberts is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road underdog and we are catching a solid price today. 10* (828) LSU Tigers |
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12-19-15 | Michigan State v. Northeastern +9 | Top | 78-58 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
Michigan St. is the No. 1 team in the country and has pretty much rolled through its schedule thus far. The Spartans are coming off a less than impressive win over Florida last time out and this game marks its first true road game of the season. Taking nothing away from what they have done, but they are the No. 1 team by default as all of the other power teams in front of them lost after starting the season No. 13. Northeastern is coming off a 23-win season, the most victories for the program in nearly 30 years and while it did lose its best player to graduation, the Huskies brought back four starters from that NCAA Tournament team that nearly defeated Notre Dame in the first round. They are 7-3 on the season and the three losses have come by a combined 10 points with Northeastern having chances to win two of the three in the final seconds. The big win on the season came at No. 15 Miami which indicates that this team is certainly not intimidated. Northeastern is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games against teams with a winning record while the Spartans are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games. While an outright win would be monumental, we fully expect the Huskies to stay within this inflated number. 10* (726) Northeastern Huskies |
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12-18-15 | Pelicans v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 88-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
New Orleans is coming off a rare road victory at Utah which was just its second road win of the season as opposed to 12 losses. It has been a horribly disappointing start for the Pelicans which came into the season with some high expectations after making the playoffs a season ago. They have lost three straight games following a victory and are catching the wrong team at the wrong time. Phoenix is also off to a disappointing starts and will be out tonight to snap a two-game skid but those losses were against Dallas and Golden St. The Suns have dropped the first two meetings against New Orleans this season so double revenge is in play as well. Here, we play on favorites that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 120 points or more. This situation is 56-27 ATS (67.5 percent) since 1996. Also, New Orleans is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off an win as a road underdog while Phoenix is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games after a loss by 15 points or more. 10* (522) Phoenix Suns |
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12-18-15 | Nuggets v. Jazz -5 | Top | 88-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
It has been a huge turnaround for Denver as after a 6-13 start, it has won five of its last six games but this is a streak that cannot last. The offense has scored 106 or more points in all five of those victories after scoring 106 or more points only seven times in its previous 19 games. Conversely, it has been a horrible run for Utah which has lost four straight games as the offense has been limited to 90.8 ppg. That changes tonight as the Jazz face one of the poorer defenses in the NBA and while a home loss against New Orleans last time out was a bad one, the other three losses came against San Antonio and Oklahoma City twice. The home floor has been average but three of the six losses have come against Golden St. and Oklahoma City twice and two of those losses were by three and four points. The Jazz are 24-12 ATS in their last 36 games after having lost four or five of their last six games while Denver is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games when playing with 2 days. 10* (520) Utah Jazz |
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12-18-15 | Kings v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Sacramento is coming off a three-game sweep in its homestand but now it hits the highway for a four-game roadtrip and for some reason, the Kings are favored here. They have not been a road favorite all season and while the schedule has been tough, a comparison can be made with Milwaukee which is just a game better than Minnesota and the Kings were 4.5-point underdogs. Minnesota has dropped four straight games and eight of nine and has yet to cover a game in December, which is a big reason the Timberwolves are dogs, but this presents the best opportunity. The Timberwolves have a solid situation on their side as we play against favorites in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3 ppg scoring differential., after a win by 10 points or more. This situation is 134-77 ATS (63.5 percent) over the last five seasons. The Kings are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a losing home record while going 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win. 10* (514) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-18-15 | Hawks v. Celtics -4 | Top | 109-101 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The Celtics are in need of a victory and should be pretty fired up tonight. After a loss against Cleveland on Tuesday, Boston was in a letdown the next night in Detroit. The defense didn't show up against the Pistons as they allowed 119 points and going back the last three weeks, Boston has allowed 108 or more points four previous times and followed that up with a victory last time out. Additionally, the Celtics will be out to avenge a 24-point loss to the Hawks last month. Atlanta is coming off a win over the Sixers which snapped a three-game losing streak. After a 7-1 start to the season, the Hawks are just 8-11 over their last 19 games as winning streaks have not occurred with the Hawks going 1-7 over their last eight games following a victory. Boston is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days while going 40-27 ATS in its last 67 games revenging a loss. Meanwhile the Hawks have failed to cover their last four games against winning teams. 10* (508) Boston Celtics |
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12-18-15 | Knicks v. 76ers +6.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a huge value play on Philadelphia as these teams faced each other just over two weeks in New York with the Knicks favored by 8.5 points and now they are favored by slightly less on the road. New York is coming off a pair of wins against Portland and Minnesota and this is a tough spot to get up for as not only because it is the Sixers but because a revenge game against the Bulls is on deck. While Philadelphia is a bad team and there are no excuses for losing but the Sixers have played the most difficult schedule of an Eastern Conference team. They are 4-11 ATS against winning teams including 0-5 ATS at home but a much better 7-4 ATS against teams with a losing record. Additionally, there is a situation on our side as we play against teams after two straight wins by six points or less going up against an opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more. This situation is 71-39 ATS (64.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (506) Philadelphia 76ers |
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12-18-15 | South Carolina -1.5 v. Clemson | Top | 65-59 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
At first glance, Clemson looks pretty good as a home underdog in this rivalry game along with the fact South Carolina is playing its first true road game of the season. However, the circumstances are different here. Clemson is 6-1 at home but the Tigers are not playing on campus this season as Littlejohn Coliseum is going under renovations the entire season so not only are they not playing on campus, they are playing 45 minutes away from campus. That is a huge deal. Last season, Clemson averaged close to 9,000 fans in home games but that is far from the case this season and tonight could feature more South Carolina fans in attendance. The Gamecocks were expected to be vastly improved but they have exceeded expectations thus far with nine straight wins to open the season. The Gamecocks welcomed back four starters along with the best recruiting class under head coach Frank Martin and this team is relevant for the first time in a long time. Five players are averaging double figures so they are balanced, deep and athletic. The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games following three or more consecutive home games while the Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (525) South Carolina Gamecocks |
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12-17-15 | Bucs v. Rams OVER 41 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 19 m | Show |
We have seen some pretty dull Thursday night games the last couple months as of the last eight games, seven have stayed below the total. The only one that went over the number was the Green Bay/Detroit game because of that Hail Mary which we were certainly fortunate to cash. While Tampa Bay and St. Louis do not scream offense when you think about them, the matchup on both sides should provide the offenses a boost. A key is actually the running game on each side as Todd Gurley is coming off a monster game and Doug Martin is having a great bounce back season. The Rams average 4.9 ypc while the Buccaneers average 4.8 ypg and those rushing attacks will open up the passing game. Last week, the Saints defense held the Buccaneers to 17 points and 291 yards, both the lowest against the Saints all season so that is a good indicator of a bounceback. In what may seen even more of getting another low scoring game here is the fact that Tampa Bay has gone under the total in three straight games while St. Louis has gone under the total in four straight games. Those are keeping the number down however. We have a great situation for the over involving teams that are averaging between 14 and 18 ppg going up against teams averaging between 18 and 23 ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 135-83 (61.9 percent) since 1983. 10* Over (301) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/(302) St. Louis Rams |
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12-17-15 | Thunder v. Cavs -3 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
We played against Oklahoma City last night and that got thrown back in our face as the Thunder led by as many as 25 points in their 16-point win over Portland. Clearly there was no lookahead and now riding a six-game winning streak, they head to Cleveland with their 5-5 road record. The schedule has been relatively tame as 15 of 25 games have been played at home and of those five road wins, only two have come against winning teams, 14-13 Memphis and 14-11 Orlando. A telling stat for Oklahoma City is the fact that of the top 22 teams in the NBA, only the Thunder and Clippers have failed to win two or more games against top ten teams as they are 1-4 (Clippers are 0-5). Cleveland rolled over Boston on Tuesday to make it three straight wins and the Cavaliers head home where they are 10-1 on the season, the lone loss being a shocking defeat against Washington where they never led. Going back, Cleveland is 30-2 in its last 32 games at home. Kyrie Irving said Wednesday that he won't be playing Thursday night against Oklahoma City and as great as he is, that is a good thing in this game as the Cavaliers chemistry will not be interrupted. 10* (704) Cleveland Cavaliers |
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12-17-15 | Belmont v. Middle Tennessee -1.5 | Top | 62-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Belmont and Middle Tennessee have met at least once per year every season since 2004 and the Bruins have had the Blue Raiders' number as of late, winning seven of the last eight. This includes three straight wins by Belmont but that streak comes to an end tonight. The Blue Raiders are 6-2 following a 19-17 season where they had 10 new players on the roster and now with an abundance of experience, they are once again expected to contend for a conference championship. Belmont has been a great program for years and this year will be no different as it is expected to win the Ohio Valley Conference. The Bruins are 7-4 with all four losses coming on the road with most coming against teams of similar strength. Their offense is the strength but this will be one of the best defenses they have faced and we can expect an even better effort from Middle Tennessee on its home floor in a big revenge situation. Middle Tennessee has been one of the best home teams in the country over the last five seasons and holds a 58-9 record at the Murphy Center and with a short line, a win likely means a cover so the short price is in our favor. The Blue Raiders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing a game as a home underdog and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against defenses allowing 77 or more ppg. 10* (712) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders |
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12-16-15 | Blazers +9.5 v. Thunder | Top | 90-106 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
With Golden St. finally losing, Oklahoma City is currently riding the longest active winning streak in the NBA with five straight victories and it has a comfortable 5.5-game lead in the Northwest Division. Three of these five wins have been by six points or less including a home overtime win over Utah last time out. This is a tough spot for the Thunder as they have a nationally televised game at Cleveland tomorrow night so the lookahead spot is there with the possibility of giving starters fewer minutes tonight. After a seven-game losing streak in early November, Portland has gone 7-6 over its last 13 games and while that is nothing spectacular, this pointspread is more in line with a team not playing nearly as good. Despite being four games under .500, the Blazers are dead even in scoring differential as the offense has improved immensely, scoring 00 or more points in 11 of their last 14 games. Here, we play against favorites after a win by six points or less going up against an opponent after scoring 100 points or more in four straight games. This situation is 135-85 ATS (61.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (513) Portland Trailblazers |
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12-16-15 | Wolves +5 v. Knicks | Top | 102-107 | Push | 0 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Minnesota has dropped three straight games and this game ends a three-game run against Western Conference teams. While the Timberwolves are just 3-10 at home, they are 6-5 on the road and they are the only team in the NBA with a losing record overall but a winning record on the highway. Minnesota is 5-6 against the Eastern Conference this season but the body of work is much better than that. Wins include Atlanta twice, Miami and Chicago while of those losses, three came by four points or less. New York snapped a four-game losing streak with a win at Portland and it has been a very tough run of late, going just 3-8 over its last 11 games to fall three games under .500. Minnesota has yet to cover at game as a favorite, going 0-6 ATS but has been much better as a dog and even more amazing is that the road team is 20-3-1 ATS in their 24 games this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (505) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-16-15 | Heat v. Nets +4 | Top | 104-98 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Brooklyn is having a horrible season as its 7-17 record is second worst in the Eastern Conference, sitting only ahead of the inept Sixers. Winning on the road is the issue as the Nets are just 1-11, one of only three teams with one or fewer road wins, but they are a much more respectable 6-6 at home. This marks the conclusion of a six-game homestand where they are 2-3 so far with two of those losses coming against Golden St. and the Los Angeles Clippers. Miami comes in riding a two-game winning streak but this is a tough part of the schedule as this is its fourth road game over the last six and this is its fourth game over the last six nights. But speaking of schedule, the Heat have played a relatively easy one thus far with 15 of their first 23 games taking place at home and they are just 3-5 on the road. They did defeat Atlanta on the road in their last game but they are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games coming off a road win as a road underdog. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is 11-1 ATS in 12 games this season coming off losses in two of its last three games. 10* (508) Brooklyn Nets |
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12-16-15 | Old Dominion v. Richmond -4.5 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Richmond is off to a 6-3 start with the losses coming against Florida, West Virginia and James Madison. The last one was a bad loss that opened the season and the Spiders can ill afford another one like that in non-conference play. They were shunned by the NCAA Tournament committee last season and they were relegated to the NIT as a No. 1 seed which shows how close they were to the big dance and getting there is the goal this season. They have four starters back from that 21-14 team and this year they have four players averaging double-figures including three averaging 15 ppg or more. Old Dominion is coming off a great season where it went 27-8 and should be very good again this season but it is off to a 4-5 start and has one just once away from its home floor. The offense has been very out of synch and while the Richmond defense has been up and down, the Spiders finished in the top 40 in defensive efficiency last season and is very capable of keeping the Monarchs down as well. Old Dominion is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games against teams outscoring their opponents by 4.0 or more ppg while going 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. Meanwhile, the Spiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (528) Richmond Spiders |
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12-15-15 | Rockets +2.5 v. Kings | Top | 97-107 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Two of the most disappointing teams in the NBA are Washington and Houston and while we played against the former, we will be playing on the latter tonight. The Rockets lost in Denver last night as they fell behind by 14 points after the first quarter but were able to take the lead at the half only to give it right back in the third quarter. Houston fell to 5-6 on the road and despite the loss last night, it is 9-7 against teams in the lower half of the NBA. The Rockets catch Sacramento at the right time as they have won six straight meetings including the first two this season. The Kings are coming off a pair of wins over Utah and New York but that last was way back on Thursday so any positive momentum has been lost. They are just 2-7 ATS following a win this season while going just 10-26 ATS in its last 36 games revenging a same season loss over the last two seasons. Additionally, they fall into a poor situation where we play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 103 or more ppg on the season, after a win by three points or less. This situation is 44-15 ATS (74.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (705) Houston Rockets |
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12-15-15 | Mercer v. Auburn -6 | Top | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Auburn made a very surprising run in the SEC Tournament last season until fatigue finally caught up to the Tigers as they were eliminated by Kentucky. It was a solid end to Bruce Pearl's fist season at Auburn and he is expecting this year to be much better. He truly thinks he has an NCAA Tournament bound team and while that may be pushing it, this is an improved team despite losing three starters. Auburn brought in the No. 28 recruiting class in the nation and that did not even include transfer T.J. Dunans, who was the top ranked JUCO prospect in the nation. They have four players averaging 13 or more ppg and they return home following a 1-1 roadtrip. Mercer is back in action after a 10-day break for finals while currently riding a five-game winning streak. The Bears were picked to finish fourth in the SoCon after a third place finish a season ago after losing three starters and while they are off to a 6-1 start, they have not played anyone solid as out of 350 teams in the country, their schedule is ranked 330th. Mercer made a name for itself when it defeated Duke two years ago in the NCAA Tournament but none of those starters are here. Auburn is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after a pair of non-conference games while going 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a straight up loss. 10* (740) Auburn Tigers |
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12-15-15 | Flames v. Predators -175 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -175 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
This number is a bit chalky but the situation sets up great for Nashville. The Predators are coming off a home loss against Colorado on Saturday and while home ice has been pretty this season, they have not lost a home game following a home loss in its previous game, going 3-0 in these spots. The Flames are coming off a five-game homestand where they went undefeated and going back, they have won nine straight games at Scotiabank Saddledome after Saturday's 5-4 overtime victory over the Rangers. The road has been a different story however as Calgary has lost four straight on the highway and is 3-11 on the season. This is the first road game since November 28th and the Predators are 41-13 in their last 54 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Nashville falls into a solid situation where we play on home favorites against the money line after a loss by one goal in their previous game going up against an opponent after scoring three goals or more in five straight games. This situation is 93-39 (70.5 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Nashville is 12-1 against the money line in its last 13 home games when playing with two days rest while Calgary is 49-110 against the money line in its last 159 road games after scoring three goals or more in two straight games while going 0-8 in its last eight road games against the money line off two or more consecutive home wins. 7* (16) Nashville Predators |
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12-14-15 | Giants -1.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
With Philadelphia and Washington both winning Sunday, the Giants can ill-afford a loss to fall a game back and with a brutal upcoming schedule, this has become a must win contest. New York has dropped three straight games by a combined 10 points and the close losses have been the story all season as an incredible statistic shows that if games were only 58:45 long, the Giants would be 10-2 this year. For an NFL record, they have given up five fourth quarter leads in the final two minutes. Miami is coming off an ugly win against Baltimore and while it has gone 4-4 over its last eight games, it has been outgained in six straight games by an average of 124.5 ypg. The Dolphins are just 2-3 at home so the home field edge is very small and their 0-2 ATS record as home underdogs and their 1-7 ATS record in their last eight home games overall show what little fight there is. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and they fall into an excellent situation as we play on road teams in the second half of the season that possess a losing record where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost three out of their last four games. This situation is 105-62 ATS (62.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (133) New York Giants |
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12-14-15 | Wizards v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 95-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
The inconsistent season for Memphis continues as it has dropped two straight games following a loss in Miami yesterday. The Grizzlies have avoided long losing streaks of late however as this is the first time they have dropped consecutive games since early November and playing at home should provide them with added motivation. They have lost two straight games at home for the first time this season and they were not pretty as they fell to Charlotte by 24 points on Friday and by 37 points against Oklahoma City prior to that. Washington is coming off a victory in its last game at Dallas on Saturday which was three wins on the road over its last four games on the highway. Winning consecutive games however has not been happening much as the Wizards have dropped four straight games following a victory and they have not won back-to-back road games since the first two games of the season against Orlando and Milwaukee. Even worse, the Wizards are 3-18 ATS in their last 21 games after a win by six points or less. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while going 6-1 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back set. 10* (512) Memphis Grizzlies |
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12-13-15 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 77 h 46 m | Show |
Not that long ago, the Patriots were on track to make another run at an undefeated season but injuries started taking their toll and now at 10-2, New England is in trouble by many. This team is just fine despite two straight losses and honestly, the Patriots could still be 12-0. They lost in overtime on a pretty bad call against the Broncos and then last week they outgained the Eagles by 179 total yards and lost because of two special teams touchdowns and a pick six. New England has not lost three straight games since 2002 as it is a perfect 4-0 since then following consecutive losses. Houston is making a run at the AFC South as it is tied with the Colts at 6-6 as it ran off a four-game winning streak prior to losing in Buffalo last week. The Texans had solid wins over Cincinnati and New York but they are not going to be sneaking up on anyone, especially a team with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady that have lost two straight games. Injuries have no doubt hurt New England on offense but last week actually helped them going forward and now with two weeks of preparation, this is where New England can be at its best. Here, we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games. This situation is 58-24 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (125) New England Patriots |
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12-13-15 | Raiders +8.5 v. Broncos | Top | 15-12 | Win | 100 | 72 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on OAKLAND for our Sunday Enforcer. The Raiders lost a tough one last week but it was clearly their own fault. Oakland was ahead by six points in the fourth quarter and driving to take a two possession lead but Derek Carr was intercepted that led to a Chiefs touchdown, threw another interception that led to another touchdown and then tossed a pick six. They outgained the Chiefs by 129 total yards and it was the second straight game where they won the yardage battle by a big margin. Oakland is now 5-7 and the playoffs are looking dim but there will be no quit against their rival in this one. Denver is 3-0 with Brock Osweiler under center and he is doing just enough to win as he has tallied 17 points twice while getting a fortunate break against the Patriots that led to 13 late points so it could have been another 17 points scored. The Broncos do look better as they are more balanced but the fact of the matter is that they are averaging just over 22 ppg and are being asked to lay an overpriced number. Part of the reason is that Oakland hasn't covered in this series since September, 2011 which is a span of nine games. That changes this week as the Raiders are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points while going 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. 10* (127) Oakland Raiders |
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12-13-15 | Lions v. Rams +2.5 | Top | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 69 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on ST. LOUIS for our NFL Game of the Week. Here we have two teams with the same record but it is the road team that is the favorite and that should not be the case. Granted, the recent results differ but this is an awful situation for Detroit. The Lions won their third straight game with a rout over Philadelphia on Thanksgiving Day and it should have been four wins if not for a Green Bay successful Hail Mary last Thursday night. Coming off a loss like that is tough to bounce back from and Detroit was actually thinking a 9-7 record could be a possibility to make the playoffs but that is now shot. Lastly, teams coming off three straight home games and are then favored on the road have been horrible. St. Louis has lost five straight but two of those were by three points, both on the road. And the last two losses have come against Cincinnati and Arizona which are a combined 20-4. The Rams are 3-3 at home and they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. Not many teams have been worse this time of year as the Lions are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games in December. The Rams fall into a solid situation as we play on home underdogs or pickems in a game involving two teams that are +/- 0.4 yppl, after allowing 375 or more yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1983. The Rams snap their skid this week. 10* (116) St. Louis Rams |
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12-13-15 | Chargers +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 69 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on SAN DIEGO for out Sunday Ultimate Underdog. This line is a complete overreaction to what was witnessed last week on the scoreboard. The Chiefs easily defeated the Raiders 34-20 but looking deeper, it was far from easy. Oakland was ahead by six points in the fourth quarter and driving to take a two possession lead but Derek Carr was intercepted that led to a Chiefs touchdown, threw another interception that led to another touchdown and then tossed a pick six. Kansas City was outgained by 129 yards and on the season, the Chiefs are getting outgained by four ypg. San Diego lost by 14 points against Denver but was outgained by just 21 yards and despite being 3-9, the Chargers are outgaining opponents by 10 yards per game. They have been much more efficient on the road as has quarterback Philip Rivers as in his previous three road games, Rivers has thrown for 1,104 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions. So because of the scores from last week, the Chiefs are now a double-digit favorite over San Diego. In addition to that, Kansas City has won and covered six straight games which is also adding to the overadjustment. The Chargers will be out for revenge from the first loss this season and they fall into a great situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 and playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (117) San Diego Chargers |
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12-12-15 | Knicks +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
We won with Portland last night as it defeated the Suns by 10 points and I expect a letdown tonight coming off that double revenge winner. The Blazers are not having a good season and inconsistency is the issue as both offense and defense have been all over the place. Portland is 5-5 at home so there is no real home edge and on the season the Blazers are just 2-5 ATS as favorites of fewer than eight points. This is the last game of a three-game roadtrip for New York as it looks to snap a four-game slide before having the next three days off. The Knicks are definitely an improved team this season as it took them until February to win their 10th game last season. History has not been good here in Portland but this is not the same Blazers team and despite a win in their last home game nine days ago, Portland has yet to win back-to-back games this season. The Knicks are backed by a solid situation as we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing 99 or more ppg on the season going up against an opponent after a loss by six points or less. This situation is 214-138 ATS (60.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (517) New York Knicks |
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12-12-15 | Cincinnati +5.5 v. Xavier | Top | 55-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
The 83rd edition of the Crosstown Shootout takes place Saturday between Cincinnati and Xavier and the Bearcats will be out for revenge following a two-point home loss last season. It is even more significant considering the fact that all five of Cincinnati's starters are back this season. Certainly this is no easy test but Cincinnati is no easy out either as for the first time since Jan. 19, 1994 and only the second time in the history of a series that began in 1929, both teams are ranked. The home floor for Xavier is a strong one but I think this line is more than it should be based on the fact of the opposite ATS runs that both teams are going through. Balance has been the key for the Bearcats as they have put at least three players in double figures in every game this season and overall, they have eight players averaging 7.3 or more ppg. While this is just their second true game of the season, the Bearcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games following three or more consecutive home games. 10* (559) Cincinnati Bearcats |
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12-12-15 | Utah v. Wichita State -2 | Top | 50-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Wichita St. is coming off its first true test at home and it passed with a win over UNLV that got closer than expected at the end. Still, it was a victory against a UNLV team that has already picked up two wins over Top-15 teams this year and the Shockers held the Rebels to 33 points below their season average. The Shockers haven't lost a home non-conference game since Feb. 18, 2011, as they have now won 33 straight. And in this building, they are a perfect 5-0 lifetime. Utah is ranked 24th in the nation and is riding a four-game winning streak as it heads out on the highway for its first true road game of the season. Wichita St. has had this one circled for a while as it lost in Utah last season by a point in overtime which ended its 35-game regular season winning streak. The Utes are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game while Wichita St. is 40-22 ATS in its last 62 games following a win. 10* (548) Wichita St. Shockers |
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12-12-15 | St. Mary's v. California -6 | Top | 59-63 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
The Golden Bears finished 18-15 last season and were left out of the postseason but bring back a ton ready to make a big run. California has NBA talent at every position and the biggest issue here is that it may be tough to keep everyone happy which is a good problem to have. They opened the season with four straight wins before a pair of losses in Las Vegas but have responded with three straight victories. We are catching a lower than expected number due to the fact they have failed to cover their last five games as well as the fact that St. Mary's comes into this game undefeated and has covered all four of its lined games. The Gaels do own a quality win over Stanford but now comes a totally different situation as they are the only team in the country than has yet ot play a game away from their home floor whether it be a neutral court game or a true road game. Making it even tough is St. Mary's lost all five starters from last season which makes the task even tougher. 10* (550) California Golden Bears |
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12-12-15 | Army +22 v. Navy | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 43 m | Show |
We won with Army in this game last season and despite straight up losses in the last four, the Cadets have covered three of those and we have been on them in each of those. While this version of Army may seem worse, the line is taking that into consideration and it is getting the most points in this series since getting the same point spread way back in 2003. The Cadets cannot match their four wins from last season and that is a reason this line is much bigger than last season but after being -72 ypg in differential last season, they are -44 ypg in differential this season. Additionally, their ppg differential has improved by 2 ppg, down from 8 ppg to 6 ppg. It has been a frustrating season for Army as it has lost only one game by more than 20 points while six of nine losses have been by seven points or less. Navy is having a great season and is certainly one of the better teams in recent years but this team has been good for a long time now as it has had eight or more wins every season but one since 2003-04. Navy split its games against the spread this season when favored by 20 or more points while Army covered its only game of +20 or more as it lost to Penn St. by just six points as a 25-point dog. Army is now 7-1 ATS in its last eight games at that price range. 10* (103) Army Cadets |
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12-11-15 | Blazers +4 v. Suns | Top | 106-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Phoenix is riding a two-game winning streak but is still three games under .500 overall and is still part of a bad run as it has gone 3-8 over its last 14 games. The Suns have lost three of four games at home and they are not in a great spot here as they face a Blazers team that is out for payback. Portland is coming off a pair of losses on the road but one came by just a bucket against Milwaukee and the other came by five points against Cleveland. The Blazers opened the season with a win over New Orleans but then dropped back-to-back games against Phoenix which bring in the double revenge situation. Phoenix has not been good in those spots as it is 3-7 on the season as a favorite of fewer than seven points while going 0-5 ATS in its last five games against teams with a losing record and 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. Portland meanwhile is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a loss and fall into a situation where we play against teams after two straight wins by six points or less going up against an opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more. This situation is 70-36 ATS (66 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (721) Portland Trailblazers |
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12-11-15 | Wolves v. Nuggets +1 | Top | 108-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Minnesota is coming off a four-game homestand where it went just 1-3 to fall to 3-9 at home and while the road has surprisingly been better, after a 4-0 start, the Timberwolves are just 2-3 in their last five road games. The defense has been the issues of late and we can expect Denver to take advantage after being held to just 78 points in the first meeting this season which was its home opener. The Nuggets have dropped five straight home games but those have come against some top teams in the NBA including the up and coming Magic last time out. Minnesota has been a favorite only five times this season and it has yet to cover any of those games while going 0-3 straight up when favored by four points or less. Denver meanwhile is a perfect 2-0 ATS as an underdog of fewer than three points and is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Here, we play against road divisional favorites that are coming off a home win scoring 110 or more points. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (718) Denver Nuggets |
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12-11-15 | Hornets v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 123-99 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
We have been on Charlotte its last two games and both resulted in blowout victories over Detroit and Miami by 20 and 18 points respectively. Those games were at home however where the Hornets are 10-3 but now they hit the road where they have played just eight games, going 3-5. They are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NBA but have played just six games against the Western Conference and while four of those were wins, three came against Sacramento, Minnesota and Portland. The Grizzlies have been up and down this season but to their credit, they have played the second toughest schedule in the NBA. Memphis is just 2-8 against the top ten in the NBA but 11-2 against everyone else and the latter is where the Hornets fall. Memphis is 18-8 in its last 26 games as a home favorite of six points or less and it falls into a great situation where we play against teams averaging 83 or more shots per game on the season, after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 39 percent or less. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (714) Memphis Grizzlies |
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12-10-15 | Vikings v. Cardinals -7.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
This is a big number to lay down but Arizona has been incredible at home and I expect that to continue. The Cardinals are coming off a stretch of four road games in a five-game stretch and they won them all including a solid win at Seattle to make it six straight wins overall. While the road has been very kind to Minnesota, it does not include a quality win. Atlanta is in a swoon, Oakland is improved but average, and Chicago and Detroit are both poor. Two games separate these teams but the yardage differentials tell a different story. The Vikings are actually getting outgained on the season by 26.8 ypg while Arizona is outgaining opponents by 102.7 ypg and that is a significant variance between the two teams. The Vikings defense was exposed last week against Seattle and that should continue here as the unit is extremely banged up. They are especially thinned out at safety, where Harrison Smith (questionable), Andrew Sendejo (questionable) and Antone Exum (placed on IR) are ailing. Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer ranks first in the NFC in multiple stat categories, including passing yards (3,693), passing TDs (29) and passer rating (106.3). Head coach Bruce Arians is 18-7 ATS against teams allowing 5.65 or more yppl. 10* (102) Arizona Cardinals |
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12-10-15 | Clippers v. Bulls | Top | 80-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
After a slow start, the Clippers have won three straight games and six of their last seven after a disappointing 7-8 start that included a dreadful 3-8 stretch. They are coming off a road win at Milwaukee last night, the second to start this five-game roadtrip which also extended their road winning streak to three games. All four road wins on the season have come against losing teams and the real kicker is that with the exception of the Lakers and Sixers which are a combined 4-39, Los Angeles is the only team in the NBA that has yet to defeat a top ten team. Chicago falls into that category despite losses in three straight games including a tough one last night against the Celtics in Boston. After a 7-1 start at the United Center, the Bulls have dropped two straight here but the wins have been solid as of those seven home victories, six have been against teams with a winning record. Overall, the Bulls are 4-2 against top ten teams. The spotlight has been good to Chicago as it is 6-1 ATS in its last seven TNT games while the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. 10* (506) Chicago Bulls |
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12-10-15 | Blackhawks v. Predators -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is the second game of a home-and home between Chicago and Nashville and the Predators will be out to avenge a 4-1 defeat on Tuesday. It has been a pretty rough couple weeks for Nashville which has lost eight of its last 11 games but the schedule has not done it many favors as eight of those games came on the road. The disturbing issue though is that the three home games came against teams with a losing record and the Predators went just 1-2 in those games. Nonetheless, home ice has been solid while the road has been a big issue for Chicago this season. The Blackhawks are 5-9 on the highway compared to 10-4 at home so this is a big reason they sit 10 points behind Dallas in the Central Division. Nashville is not only playing with revenge from Tuesday but this is the first home meeting with Chicago since losing in the first round of last years playoffs four games to two. Going back, Nashville is 15-5 in its last 20 games revenging a loss where it scored one goal or less while Chicago is 12-25 in its last 37 games coming off two consecutive home wins by two goals or more. Additionally, the Blackhawks fall into a negative situation where we play against road teams that are coming off two consecutive home wins by two goals or more going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 119-69 (63.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (58) Nashville Predators |
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12-10-15 | Iowa +7.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 82-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Iowa is coming off a 22-12 season that was filled with many feats that had not happened in a while as the Hawkeyes went 12-6 in the Big Ten, their best conference record in nearly a decade, and they had their longest conference winning streak in nearly two decades. Iowa went 7-3 on the road last season so coming in here is not an issue, especially with four starters back from last season's successful team and already posting a 28-point win at Marquette last month. Overall, they are 7-2 and will be fired up to take out their undefeated rival. The Cyclones are 7-0 and ranked No. 4 in the latest AP Poll and No. 2 in the USA Today Coaches Poll, the highest ranking ever for Iowa St. so there could be some pressure which is their first real test of the season. Iowa matches up extremely well with the Cyclones as the comparisons are tight. Senior forwards Jarrod Uthoff of Iowa and Georges Niang of Iowa St. are averaging 19.3 ppg, 7.8 rpg and 3.8 bpg and 20.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg and 1.5 bpg in their last four games respectively. Both teams have veteran point guards in Mike Gesell for Iowa and Monte Morris for Iowa St. and they are averaging 6.9 apg and 7.3 apg respectively. Defensively, the teams are allowing virtually the same amount of points on the same shooting percentage. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 15 points or more. This situation is 44-13 ATS (77.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (511) Iowa Hawkeyes |
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