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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-18-23 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +140 | 8-16 | Win | 140 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
Cards starter Wainwright is now said to be healthy after injuring himself during training for the World Baseball Classic. This will be his 3rd start off a lay off and now Im betting like the thoroughbred he is will be ready to pitch at a high standard. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 41-18 in their last 59 games vs. a left-handed starter like Urias. St.Louis to win |
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05-17-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
The well rested Miami Heat take on a Boston Celtics side off a grueling 7 game series vs the Philadelphia 76ers. The Heat have saved their best hoops of the season for the play offs, and played the Celtics tough recently winning the last two matchups between these teams during this campaign with a 98-95 victory at home back on Jan 24th and a 120-116 road win back in December. Now very fresh and ready to continue their assault the Heat catch the Celtics in a emotional and physical down mode after their huge series win vs the 76ers.BOSTON is 0-9 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. MIAMI is 32-18 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. MIAMI is 24-13 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (108-114 PPG), after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games are 47-22 L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Heat are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Boston.Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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05-17-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 3-12 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Its not an ideal night for baseball in Bostons Fenway as temps are expected to be around 50 degrees all night with , with 12 mph winds blowing in from left field. Pitchers have an advantage in this weather conditions. Seattles starter GONZALES is 17-4 UNDER in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7 rpg scored.  GONZALES is 21-8 UNDER in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored. Under is 5-2 in Mariners last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the BoSox starter Bello. Home plate umpire Mike Estabrook has seen 55% of his career gigs go under the total, a notorious pitchers leaning official. Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 during game 3 of a series. MLB teams where the total is 10 or higher (BOSTON/SEATTLE) - in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 54%), in May games are 48-14 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-17-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox -115 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
The Red Sox hit southpaws well, and are  33-18  against the money line against left-handed starters like the Mariners starter Gonzales over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 28-10 against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, Brian Bello the Bosox starter has pitched well of late garnering a 2-0 record along with a solid 2.81 ERA in his L/3 starts with his team winning all 3 games . Advantage Boston. Red Sox are 15-2 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Mariners are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings. Play on the Red Sox to win |
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05-17-23 | Reds +102 v. Rockies | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Reds starter Ashcraft owns a  53.7% career ground-ball rate while allowing just 0.91 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) which is important here in the launching pad known as Coors Field. Meanwhile, the Rockies will send left-hander Austin Gomber (3-4, 6.30), to the hill . The pitching advantage goes to the Reds. The Reds Starter ASHCRAFT is 8-3  against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) ASHCRAFT is 11-5 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Rockies are 7-22 in their last 29 vs. a team with a losing record. Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Play on Cincinnati to win |
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05-17-23 | Pirates v. Tigers -153 | 8-0 | Loss | -153 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been in top form this season and his D, has played extremely well behind him. In 8 starts this season the lefty has garnered a 1.57 ERA and very much gives his team an edge in this tilt vs a Pirates side is 1-16 ( against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better over the last 2 seasons. PITTSBURGH is also an ugly 7-44 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 3 seasons. MLB team (DETROIT) - bad AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing are 27-9 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Tigers to win |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
The L/3 meetings in this series during the current campaign have all eclipsed this total and my projections once again anticipate a score in the mid 220s which gives is a full possession advantage to the over. Considering the Lakers are a top tier side in transition on offense while the Nuggets ae a weak transition defense you can bet the Lakers will press which will force the home side to be even more aggressive offensively and what could easily be a run and gun game 1. LA LAKERS are 17-6 OVER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg going on the scoreboard.LA LAKERS are 23-14 OVER as a road underdog this season with a combined average of 234.1 ppg scored. DENVER is 42-23 OVER in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. Play on the over |
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05-16-23 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 12 | 3-1 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
Brandon Williamson will make his MLB debut in the launching pad known as Coors Field and Im betting it wont be a pretty start to his big league career. Hes got a great arm but has control issues, none of which have been worked out during his minor league career. Not a good omen for him here in this type of ball park. Williamson went 2-4 with a 6.62 ERA in eight starts for Triple-A Louisville this season. The Rockies have done their best offensive work vs lefties this season averaging 5.4 rpg. Meanwhile, the Rockies will respond with Anderson who will face his former team in his first start of the season. ( The Reds have an extensive scouting report on Anderson)  COLORADO is 21-10 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 12.9 rpg scored. Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higherOver is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings in Colorado. Play on the over |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -6 | 126-132 | Push | 0 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
The Nuggets are the No. 1 seed, and have been for most of this season , and have home-court advantage. They were 34-7 at Ball Arena in the regular season and have won all six home playoff games going into this tilt  with the Lakers. Im calling on a rinse and repeat situation and for the Nuggets to have the edge on this ATS offering at home where they have won 4 of their L/5 matchups vs the Lakers. LA LAKERS are 5-13 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. LA LAKERS are 10-22 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 13-2 ATS in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season. DENVER is 21-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Tuesday nights are 8-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DENVER) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 36-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play on the Nuggets to cover |
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05-16-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Seattle won Monday's series opener, racking up 15 hits in a 10-1 victory and Im betting the hits and runs will keep on coming this Tuesday night as they face the very inconsistent BosSox starter N. Pivetta who owns a 8.40 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill. PIVETTA in his L/6 after getting rocked for 7 or more runs last outing has seen a combined score of 13.3 rpg scored. ( In his latest appearance, on May 9 at Atlanta, he allowed seven runs on eight hits in four innings) Meanwhile, Boston despite of some sluggish offense efforts of late are more than capable of a bounce back game here vs a Seattle pitcher in Castillo. Note: The Red Sox are ranked near the top in MLB vs righties like Castillo averaging 5.4 rpg on a .273 BA. BOSTON is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with a combined average of 11.7 rpg scored. .BOSTON is 16-7 OVER in home games this season with a combined average of 11.3 rpg scored. Play over |
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05-16-23 | Rays +148 v. Mets | 8-5 | Win | 148 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
The Mets are battered and beaten and tired after a long road trip and may take some time to get used to home cooking which is not a good omen against an explosive Tampa Bay side that deserve alot of respect. I know Verlander is a top tier pitcher , but the Rays are currently MLB top offensive side and have equally smashed lefties and righties with astonishing fire power. The Mets were outscored 64-39 over the previous 13 games.. New York starting pitchers have pitched more than five innings just twice during that span and are fade material in this current form no matter who's on the hill for them. TAMPA BAY is 16-2 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. NY METS are 2-8 against the money line vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. NY METS are 0-6 against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more this season which was the case last time out. MLB Home teams (NY METS) - after 4 straight games with no home runs, after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs are 42-72 L/26 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tampa Bay to win |
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05-16-23 | Yankees +180 v. Blue Jays | 6-3 | Win | 180 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
 Gausman the Jays starter is a durable top tier pitcher, but the Yankees bats can make the best of hurlers look sub standard. GAUSMAN is 1-5 against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Meanwhile, German the Yankees starter , must also not be underestimated as is evident by garnering a stingy 1.89 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill. Considering the pitching matchup and the viable offenses its obvious to me that the line is bloated as compared to the true odds giving us value with the dangerous underdog. TORONTO is 12-19 against the money line in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons.  .Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. American League East. Yankees are 77-35 in their last 112 during game 2 of a series.Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 overall. MLB Road teams (NY YANKEES) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring 7 runs or more 3 straight games are 127-83 L/26 seasons for a 61% conversion rate. Play on the NY Yankees |
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05-15-23 | Royals +188 v. Padres | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Padres starter WACHA is 4-11  against the money line in home games in an inter-league game in his career. (Team's Record) Royals righty starter Keller according to my power rankings is a pitcher that is very under rated and must be respected here on this bloated underdog line. He has recorded a 2-0 record and .2.91 road ERA this season, and gets the nod on a value line. Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 overall. SAN DIEGO is 6-12 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - bad AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing are 39-17 L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Royals are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego. Play on the Royals to win |
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05-15-23 | Cubs +171 v. Astros | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Taillon will make his third start since returning from the 15-day injured list on May 4. He looked a little rusty so far, but now should find himself in a groove here vs a lineup that he matches up well against according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. TAILLON is 16-2 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Meanwhile,  Left-hander Framber Valdez (3-4, 2.38 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Astros today . With the Astros offense not looking as powerful as it has the last few seasons, he has not been getting sufficient run or bullpen support as is evident by his stingy ERA but sub par record. VALDEZ is 0-5 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. (Team's Record) Considering the Cubbies have done their best work against southpaws this season averaging 6 rpg it is an easy decision to fafe the Astros in this matchup. HOUSTON is 6-10 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CHICAGO CUBS) - average NL hitting team (AVG .255 to .269) against an excellent AL starting pitcher (ERA 3.20 or less), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start are 23-11 L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. MLB team (CHICAGO CUBS) - average NL hitting team (AVG .255 to .269) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less ), with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 36-17 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cubs to win |
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05-15-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
Dallas HC Peter DeBoer is the man to back in Game 7s- as he has a 100% success rate in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Since game 1 of this series 5 straight games have been decided by 2 goals or more and tonight Im betting on another value puckline result this time favoring the SU fav and home side the Dallas Stars. Play on Dallas to win -1.5 |
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05-15-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My power rankings suggest the BoSox offense matchup well vs the Mariners starter Kirby. BOSTON is 9-1 OVER vs. a starting pitcher like Kirby with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season with a combined 12.3 rpg scored. BOSTON is 18-6 OVER against right-handed starters this season with a combined 11.6 rpg scored. Kirby is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in two career starts against the Red Sox, allowing 10 runs (eight earned) in 10 innings. He has also surrendered four home runs.BOSTON is 26-13 OVER in all games this season with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored.Meanwhile, the Mariners offense should also roll today vs a tired pitching staff and bullpen that just allowed 21 runs in a 3 game set to the Cardinals in which they were swept. Red Sox starter Houck has also looked less than stellar of late, garnering a 6.48 ERA in his L/3 starts. Over is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 during game 1 of a series.Over is 8-0 in Red Sox last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SEATTLE) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts, ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games are 65-30 OVER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings in Boston.Over is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings. Play over |
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05-15-23 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
NYM starter Peterson has not looked great so far this season, but has a good hsitroy against the Dbacks, as is evident by a  2-0 record along with a 2.93 ERA in six career outings (five starts) against Washington. With the Nats only averaging 2.9 rpg this season at home Peterson and his bullpen should do fine from a defensive perspective in this tilt. Meanwhile the Nationals starter Corbin has also under performed but is trending upwards as he has worked at least into the sixth inning in his last five starts. With the Mets only averaging 2.7 rpg vs lefties this season, Corbin should have a decent outing. NY METS are 12-4 UNDER against left-handed starters this season like Crobin with a combined average of 6.7 rpg going on the board. NY METS are 9-1 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored. WASHINGTON is 14-5 UNDER vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season with a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored. WASHINGTON is 18-7 UNDER in home games with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or better errors/game on the season are 39-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 7.8 rpg scored. MLB team (WASHINGTON) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL). are 52-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-14-23 | Cardinals -114 v. Red Sox | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Cardinals are 5-1 in their last 6 overall and have won the first two games of this series at Fenway and must not be underestimated in their ability to make it 3 in a row here with Mikolas on the hill. The Cards right hurler owns a 2.20 ERA in his L/3 starts and is in top form. Meanwhile, BoSox starter Corey Kluber has really struggled under the shadows of the Green Monster and posted a 7.72 ERA in 4 starts here this season, which is not a good omen for his side tonight. Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.Red Sox are 0-7 in their last 7 interleague home games. BOSTON is 5-13 against the money line when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons. MLB Home teams (BOSTON) - very good offensive team - scoring 5.4 or more runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent good offensive team - scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season (NL) are 13-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cards to win |
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05-14-23 | Rangers v. A's +130 | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Oakland not played well this year, but the implied odds of this tilt to not matchup well as compared to my projected outcome giving us value with the underdog. Heaney the Rangers pitcher has lost his L/2 starts here in this venue, and is being over rated today. TEXAS is 25-33 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Rangers are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Rangers are 21-44 in their last 65 during game 4 of a series. Rangers are 17-35 in the last 52 meetings in Oakland. Play on the As to win |
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05-14-23 | 76ers +6.5 v. Celtics | 88-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
It's do or die for both sides here in game 7 and Im betting on a hard fought affair that goes down to the wire. The Sixers have already proved they can win on the road in this series and have proven their resilience  as well. Note: Two of Philadelphia's three victories in the series came in Boston. key quote: "If I have to go to war, Game 7 in Boston, I would want to go with this group," Philadelphia's Tyrese Maxey said. "I know we've got some fighters. I know we've got some resilient guys. I'm ready to get it on." PHILADELPHIA is 24-10 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season. The Celtics got the desperation win last time out, but maintaining that energy Im betting will be very difficult. The Celtics have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 after a victory. The Sixers have covered 5 of their L/8 trips to Bean-town. Play on the Sixers to cover |
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05-14-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | 3-16 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Minnesota's Louie Varland (0-0, 4.32 ERA) will make his ninth career start and first against the Cubs, while Chicago will respond with right-hander Marcus Stroman (2-3, 2.28). Varland has pitched his best at home this season where has garnered a 1.50 ERA in 6 innings of work. It must also be noted that Stroman has gone at least six innings while allowing two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts this season and Im betting nothing changes today in what Im projecting will be a lower scoring affair. (Also expecting immediate offensive regression from the Twins after yesterdays 11 run output) Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 20-7-1 in Cubs last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.CHICAGO CUBS are 10-2 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored. Under is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 during game 3 of a series.Under is 9-4-1 in Twins last 14 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 15-7-2 in Twins last 24 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Play under |
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05-14-23 | Angels v. Guardians -101 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Cleveland's right-hander Tanner Bibee (1-1, 4.30) posted a 3.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his first three outings covering 14 2/3 innings and deserves respect here on this line offering. The Halos who have lost 10 of their 12 here at Progressive Field will counter with left-hander Patrick Sandoval (3-1, 3.41 ERA) in the finale. With the Halos winning the first two games of their series the Guardians will be hell bent on salvaging something from this series and will play hard today behind a viable hurler making them my choice in this spot play. Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Guardians are 15-5 in their last 20 during game 3 of a series.Guardians are 13-5 in their last 18 vs. American League West. Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 overall.. NEVIN is 2-8 against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite as the manager of LA ANGELS. Play on Cleveland to win |
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05-13-23 | Phillies v. Rockies +139 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Phillies starter Ranger Suarez, who will come off the IL on Saturday could easily be rusty here in a hitters ball park, making the Rockies a viable underdog at his implied price. The Rockies also hit lefties well, and deserve respect at home to pull of the upset in this spot play. Colorado has won 8 of their L/11 overall.Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter like Suarez.Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Rockies are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series. Phillies are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in Colorado. Play on the Rockies to win |
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05-13-23 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
The pitching matchup of righty Musgrove going against Urials the lefty gives the offenses and advantage as the  Dodgers rank third against righties (119 wRC+), while the Padres rank eighth against southpaws with a 115 wRC+ so far this season. Dodger stadium will see temps in the high 70s, with light winds blowing out to center. LA DODGERS are 13-4 OVER in home games in May games over the last 2 seasons with 11.7 rpg scored. Over is 9-3 in Dodgers last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 10-3 in Dodgers last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Play over |
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05-13-23 | Pirates v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Baltimores starter Wells, , has not lost since April 9. In five starts since then, he is 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA, 23 strikeouts and seven walks and is not an easy guy to face for a Pirates side that has not scored more than 3 runs in 11 straight games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Roansy Contreras (3-3, 4.74 ERA) will go against a Baltimore team that hits southpaws better than righties ranking 15th . My projections based on the pitching matchup , and projected offensive outputs suggests a line closer 7.5 thus giving us value on this offering. Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 overall.BALTIMORE is 15-4 UNDER vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.7 rog scored. Play under |
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05-13-23 | Cardinals v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
These teams took part in a high scoring game yesterday, and the environment is right for another fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total according to my projections. With temps in the low 18s and NW winds at around 13 mph Im expected plenty runs. BOSTON is 18-9 OVER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored.BOSTON is 15-6 OVER in home games this season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored. Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 interleague games.Over is 8-1 in Cardinals last 9 overall. Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Play over |
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05-13-23 | Cubs v. Twins -161 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Twins starter Joe Ryan is a top tier pitcher and deserves a great deal of respect. Considering his performance charts this season, this is not to high of price to ask on this offered line . Twins are 8-3 in their last 11 home games.Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.Twins are 7-3 in their last 10 inter-league home games. Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the Twins starter Ryan. MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHICAGO CUBS) - hot hitting team - batting .325 or better over their last 3 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games are 11-46 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (MINNESOTA) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (.320 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less ), starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 110-39 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Twins to win |
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05-13-23 | Braves v. Blue Jays -122 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Jays starter BERRIOS is 15-1 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BERRIOS is 15-1 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BERRIOS is 16-2 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)  TORONTO is 15-3 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. I know Elders the Braves starter has pitcher very well out of the gate, but according to my projections this kid could in for a tough outing against explosive Blue Jays batting order. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ATLANTA) - after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 5-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. MLB home teams (TORONTO) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 25-7 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Toronto to win |
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05-13-23 | Reds v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
Marlins stater ALCANTARA is 10-2 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.9 rpg scored.ALCANTARA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 4.6 rpg scored. MIAMI is 14-4 UNDER  vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons like the Reds Lodolo. with a combined average of 5.9 rpg scored. CINCINNATI is 11-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons of 4.5 rpg scored. both theses offenses have been very inconsistent this season, while their pitching has been viable. My projections estimate a low scoring affair that fails to eclipse this number. MLB Road teams (CINCINNATI) - after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 33-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-13-23 | Rays v. Yankees +122 | 8-9 | Win | 122 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
McClanahan (7-0, 1.76 ERA) can become the first eight-game winner in the majors and hes performing an exaggerated level just like the rest of the team. Regression is obviously coming and Im betting it starts today against the Yankees. Note:McClanahan is 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees. Meanwhile, Yanks starter Cortes was 2-2 with a 3.28 ERA in four starts against Tampa Bay last season, including a victory on May 26 at St. Petersburg, Fla., when he hurled eight innings of one-run ball. My pitcher vs power rankings suggest he matches up well here vs the Rays and at these implies odds is under rated. Rays are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Yankees are 71-33 in their last 104 home games and are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a left-handed starter like McClanahan. TAMPA BAY is 24-35 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons. NY YANKEES are 33-9 against the money line in home games in day games over the last 2 seasons. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season, after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base are 49-24 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. NYY to win |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -2.5 | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
The Warriors shot 51.1 percent from the field last time out in a win and outrebounded the Lakers 48-38. Im betting on immediate regression here against what will be a more motivated Lakers group here tonight. The Lakers Davis played his least amount of min in the play offs in that last game, but should be more rested for this key tilt. What was troubling was the Warriors   14 turnovers and tonight Im betting under pressure that those ugly numbers will contribute the Warriors downfall.  GOLDEN STATE is 3-12 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.GOLDEN STATE is 14-32 ATS in road games this season.LA LAKERS are 12-4 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. NBA Underdogs (GOLDEN STATE) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 12-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on LA Lakers to cover |
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05-12-23 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +103 | 5-7 | Win | 103 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Nelson. SAN FRANCISCO is sub .500 61-70 against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons and according to my projections being over rated here today vs the Snakes. Value resides with a hungry home side on a 3 game slid. Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League West .Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.ARIZONA is 20-17 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 4-13 against the money line vs. a team with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season. Play on Dbacks to win |
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05-12-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Cubs send right-hander Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.35 ERA) to the hill to face the Cubs.Gray currently owns the best ERA in the American League and has allowed more than one run in only one of his seven trips to the hill this season. Meanwhile,Left-hander Drew Smyly (3-1, 3.05) will takes to the mound for the Cubs. In 16 career appearances (six starts) against the Twins, Smyly is 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA. My projections estimate, a pitchers duel here and when need be for the bullpens to finish the job. SMYLY is 19-8 UNDER  in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 road games.Under is 6-0 in Cubs last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 40-18-6 in Cubs last 64 during game 1 of a series. MINNESOTA is 11-2 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 6 rpg scored. Under is 6-0 in Twins last 6 overall. CHICAGO CUBS are 24-12 UNDER after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored. Under is 40-18-6 in Cubs last 64 during game 1 of a series. Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota. Play under |
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05-12-23 | Royals +205 v. Brewers | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Burnes, who won the Cy Young Award in 2021, has not been as sharp thus far as he was the last two seasons and is being over rated here. With that said, there is to much value to pass up with a Royals side that has won four of their last five games and that has homered in 10 consecutive games. Also the Brewers have lost 8 of their L/10 and are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter like the Royals Taylor. Brewers are also 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Royals are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Play on the KC Royals to win |
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05-12-23 | Knicks v. Heat -5.5 | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
Having enough talent on the floor is obviously very important, but in the play offs if you don't have an experienced coach, you are most probably doomed.With Spoelestra on the sidelines for Miami in a clutch post season action Im betting the Heat have the edge especially playing here at home where they have defeated the Knicks in 5 of their L/7 meetings. I know the Knicks played a great game last time out in desperation mode, but even after leaving everything on the floor, there was a feeling of inadequacy surrounding the Knicks and an emotional let down situation could easily hamper their flow this evening. MIAMI is 29-16 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 46-25 ATS in the second round of the playoffs since 1996. Spoelstra is 30-14 ATS in the second round of the playoffs as the coach of MIAMI. Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Conference Semifinals games. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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05-12-23 | Angels v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Clevelands lack of offense and top tier pitching have produced consistent unders of late. The Guardians have gone under in 9 of thier L/10 games with no tilt over that span seeing more than 8 combined runs scored. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here again tonight vs the visiting Angels. Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter like the Guardians starter Allen. Under is 7-2-1 in Angels last 10 during game 1 of a series.Under is 20-7 in Angels last 27 games following an off day. CLEVELAND is 10-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.1 rpg scored. CLEVELAND is 21-7 UNDER  vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored. MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-12-23 | Cardinals +105 v. Red Sox | 8-6 | Win | 105 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Paxton off a long lay off after getting injured back in April is being over rated here based on what Ill describe as rust. The Cards despite of some very inconsistent baseball early this season, are team that has generally hit lefties like Paxton hard, and once again look like they will do damage. Note: Cardinals are 23-10 in their last 33 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. American League East.Red Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague home games. Play on St.Louis to win |
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05-12-23 | Mets v. Nationals +110 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
NY METS are 3-8 against the money line in May games this season. Mets are in a funk and fade material in their current form. NY METS are 4-16 against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. Mets are 1-7 in their last 8 road games.Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter like the Nationals Gore.  Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.MLB Home teams (WASHINGTON) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a rested bullpen - threw 2 or less innings in each of the last 2 games are 78-25 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Advantage value with the Washington Nats to win |
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05-12-23 | Reds +129 v. Marlins | 7-4 | Win | 129 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Cincinnati will have the pleasure of going against a fresh rookie just coming from Double A. Hes a talented kid but he goes against much tougher competition here and him stepping up wont come easily vs a Reds team, off winning two of three from the Mets. Meanwhile, the Marlins face a hurler in  Graham Ashcraft (2-1, 3.82) who matches up well against them according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. In two career starts against Miami, he has garnered a 1-0 record along with a stingy1.80 ERA. Marlins are 17-36 in their last 53 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Ashcraft .Marlins are 34-73 in their last 107 during game 1 of a series.Marlins are 15-36 in their last 51 games following an off day. Reds are 15-6 in the last 21 meetings. Play on Cincinnati Reds to win |
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05-12-23 | Mariners v. Tigers +105 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that Boyd matches up well here vs the Seattle Mariners. Boyd is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in six career appearances (five starts) against the Mariners. It must also be noted that Motown has momentum entering this tilt against Seattle as is evident by having won seven of their past nine games.  Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter like Seattles Gonzales. DETROIT is 12-4 against the money line after shutting out their opponent over the last 3 seasons which was the case last time out. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) - poor offensive team - scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 1 run or less are 86-47 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Detroit Tigers to win |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Suns | 125-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
This has been a homer series so far with the host team winning all five tilts. However, the discrepancy in scores has been more tilted to towards the Nuggets in their home wins while the Suns home victories have been much closer and hard fought. My won feelings and analysis suggest the Nuggets are the superior side overall , and deserve respects as underdogs in this key spot play. DENVER is 20-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games.Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NBA team (PHOENIX) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 18-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Play on the Nuggets to cover |
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05-11-23 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +123 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
Giants starter Cobb has pitched well so far this season. However, he is   2-2 with a 6.10 ERA in six career starts against Arizona, including 0-1 with an 8.36 mark in three outings at Chase Field.  COBB is 13-21 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) I know Henry the Snakes starter does not have great numbers this season, but he is undervalued here according to my own pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. Giants are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League West. Play on the DBacks to win |
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05-11-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. 76ers | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
With the backs up against the proverbial wall, Im betting on a huge bounce back effort from the Celtics in classic zig zag theory mode. They played lousy D, and inconsistent offense and will easily uptrend in their return to the court. Don't count the never say die Celtics out is my moto for tonight. Remember last season when the Celtics won Game 6 on the road against the Milwaukee Bucks and then captured the series in seven games. Quote: "If you're not willing to pretty much get dirty, if you're not willing to bleed, if you're not willing to break something, willing to tear something going hard, then you shouldn't be on that court, because that's what it is," Marcus Smart said. "That's what the playoffs are about. Hopefully you stay safe, but that's the mentality. You gotta go, you gotta be willing to risk it all for these games. end Quote BOSTON is 20-7 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more. BOSTON is 15-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. BOSTON is 15-4 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a home loss are 51-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boston to cover |
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05-11-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes -125 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The Devils imploded on themselves vs the Hurricanes in game 4 of this series as the Canes recorded a 6-1 win in Game 4 on Tuesday to secure a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series and with the proverbial death blow at hand Im betting on the more experienced Canes to bring home the cash . New Jersey coach Lindy Ruff said. "We had guys who just went rogue. You can call that lack of experience, even the power play turned into one man trying to do something and then the next man trying to do something." The Devils lack of play off experience is the difference maker here as is home ice advantage for the Canes. Hurricanes are 41-15 in their last 56 home games.Hurricanes are 24-9 in their last 33 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.Hurricanes are 36-15 in their last 51 vs. Eastern Conference.Hurricanes are 38-16 in their last 54 games following a win.Hurricanes are 21-9 in their last 30 Conference Semifinals games. NEW JERSEY is 0-11 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS in home games as a # 1 seed in the playoffs over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 20-8 ATS against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% or more of shots against this season.CAROLINA is 23-7 ATS in home games against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp over the last 3 seasons. Play on Carolina to win |
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05-11-23 | Rays v. Yankees +110 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
 Im betting the Rays will soon regress offensively, after a very fast open to their season. Yankees starter German while viable is not as viable a pitcher as Rasmussen, but Germans bullpen is better and Im betting the Yankees will hang tough in this tilt and at this offering are viable underdog selections. Note: Yankees are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Rasmussen. NYY starter GERMAN is 18-4 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in his career. (Team's Record) GERMAN is 10-2  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record) MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70)-AL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season are 35-11 L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 5 starts 44-17 L/26 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. Rays are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in New York. Play on NYY to win |
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05-11-23 | Mets v. Reds OVER 10 | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Reds will send right-handed reliever Derek Law (2-4, 3.00)to the hill in his fifth career start as an opener among his 210 major league appearances. Right-hander Ben Lively is will make his first big-league appearance since 2019 with Kansas City. This will be a nice weather afternoon tilt with temps in the high 70s and light wind blowing out to center. With two average major league baseball starters on the hill Im betting on a boatload of runs going on the board this afternoon.  Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 road games. Over is 8-2 in Reds last 10 vs. National League East.Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Over is 6-2 in Reds last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Reds last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-3 in Reds last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Play over |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -6.5 | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
The senior laden Lakers are probably pretty tired right now, after playing all out hoops in 4 straight games, and will have a hard time here against Golden State that plays their best hoops at home as is evident by their 36-10 home record this season. GOLDEN STATE is 15-7 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 ATS ( in home games off a loss against a division rival this season Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.LA LAKERS are 8-20 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons.MLB team (GOLDEN STATE) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 55-22 for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBA team (LA LAKERS) - as a # 7 seed in the playoffs, in a playoff game are 113-173 ATS L/26 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Golden State Warriors |
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05-10-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
Its going to be a fairly cool night in Chicago with temps near 60 and the wind blowing in from Center/right field, and Im betting on a lower scoring game that benefits the pitchers and not the hitters. It must also be noted the Cubs have seen more than 8 runs combined scored in just one of their L/8 games and only twice in their L/13 trips to the diamonds. Play under |
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05-10-23 | White Sox v. Royals +123 | 1-9 | Win | 123 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
The White Sox won yesterday but thats not always a good omen for this underperforming side as is evident by going  2-11 in their last 13 games following a win.Note: White Sox starter LYNN is 10-16 against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. The White Sox are also 3-13 in their last 16 during game 3 of a series and are are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the Royals expected starter Keller. White Sox are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Kansas City and Im betting they go down in proverbial flames tonight. (MLB Team's RecordMLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more), with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season are 9-28 L/26 seasons for a go against for a 76% conversion rate. Play on the Royals to win |
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05-10-23 | Heat v. Knicks -3.5 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
The Knicks have their backs up against the proverbial wall , as Miami will try to close out this series tonight. Im betting that will be delayed by a desperate side. The Knicks pulled down an average of 46.6 rebounds per game during the regular season, tied for second-most in the NBA, and out-rebounded foes by 4.5 per game and tonight Im betting we see them at their best and very physical as they leave everything on the court. MIAMI is 0-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games this season. NEW YORK is 12-4 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 20-46 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Play on the Knicks to cover |
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05-10-23 | Mets v. Reds +146 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
The Mets are vulnerable at moment and in a bit of a funk and even with Verlander on the hill their favorite status is bloated. NY METS are 2-7 against the money line in May games this season.NY METS are 3-15 against the money line in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 road games. NY METS are 3-9 against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season MLB team (CINCINNATI) - after a win by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring and allowing 6 runs or more 2 straight games are 46-17 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Cincinnati to win |
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05-10-23 | Mets v. Reds OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Mets bullpen is tired and Im betting on some late runs here today after the starters leave this tilt. Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 vs. National League Central.Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 vs. National League East.Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 8-2 in Reds last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. NY METS are 24-6 OVER after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (NY METS) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings are 124-61 OVER L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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05-10-23 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
This afternoon game is a pivotal division matchup and both sides will primed to compete, on a sunny afternoon in southern California , with near perfect weather and the wind blowing out to left center field. Both teams have alot of offensive talent, and despite of two decent pitchers on the mound, the environment favors a run fest.Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 vs. American League West. Over is 5-2 in Angels last 7 vs. American League West.Over is 5-2 in Angels last 7 home games.Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play over |
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05-10-23 | Blue Jays v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Kevin Gausman (2-3, 3.86 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays on Wednesday. My power rankings suggest he matches up well vs this explosive Phillies offense and when and if he does falter his bullpen should supply enough backing to keep the home side from an exaggerated output. Jays starter GAUSMAN is 34-16 UNDER  on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. Meanwhile, Philadelphia will hand the ball to Zack Wheeler (3-2, 4.26 ERA) on Wednesday. My own notes on Wheeler suggests upward momentum, and better pitch command which will hold the mighty Jays at bay. Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. TORONTO is 13-4 UNDER vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game this season. Under is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 during game 2 of a series.Under is 6-2-1 in Blue Jays last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. Play under |
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05-10-23 | Marlins +131 v. Diamondbacks | 5-4 | Win | 131 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Right-hander Merrill Kelly (3-3, 2.75 ERA) will start for Arizona on Wednesday and power rankings suggest he is a sub par opponent for the Marlins batting order.Kelly is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his three appearances against the Marlins and faced them one last season, Meanwhile, the Marlins with reply with starter, Edward Cabrera (2-3, 4.78 ERA), He may. not catch many pundits eyes with a regular data search , but he owns a strikeout rate of almost 30%, along with a 53.2% ground-ball rate and is a viable starter to back in this situation on a value line. MLB team (MIAMI) - terrible offensive team (3.5 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), in May games are 24-13 L/5 season for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Miami to win |
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05-10-23 | Rockies +135 v. Pirates | 4-3 | Win | 135 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Rockies right-hander Antonio Senzatela (0-1, 1.80 ERA), faces opposite Pittsburgh left-hander Rich Hill (3-3, 4.54).Senzatela has the edge here vs a side that has lost eight of its past nine games and has garnered  just 12 runs during that span and are  are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Meanwhile, the Rockies have won 7 of thier L/9 overall and are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are also 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. like Hill. Advantage Rockies on a value line |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
The Suns, thanks to the red hot shooting of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, tied the series with a 129-124 win in Game 4 on Sunday . The Suns really had to have everything going for them to get that win, but now here in the Mile High city Im betting on immediate regression from the Suns vs a side that is fired up after their star forward Nikola Jokic was called on a technical and fined for nudging Suns owner court-side. This will ignite the Nuggets . Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. PHOENIX is 7-16 ATS in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. DENVER is 33-18 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.DENVER is 17-8 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season.DENVER is 21-11 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. Malone is 66-45 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of DENVER. Play on Denver to cover |
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05-09-23 | Stars -131 v. Seattle Kraken | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
Seattle took the last game of this series, at home, but now Im betting on what my power rankings suggest is s superior side to bounce back just like they did game 2 after losing game 1. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  in road games revenging a road loss versus opponent this season . Dallas 4.5 vs opponent 1.7. Stars are 8-1 in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.Stars are 11-4 in their last 15 overall.Stars are 12-5 in their last 17 road games.Stars are 9-4 in their last 13 vs. Western Conference. Play on Dallas to win |
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05-09-23 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 8 | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My projections make this total closer to a 9. With the wind blowing out tp center Field at 13 miles an hour, I wont be surprised with an above average over the fence action tonight. Over is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 vs. National League West.Washingtons starter CORBIN is 35-18 OVER  in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in his career (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.3 rpg scored. SAN FRANCISCO is 26-12 OVER  as a favorite of -200 or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 9.4 rpg scored. Play over |
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05-09-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -7.5 | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
After losing in OT in the road last time out, Im betting the Boston Celtics will regain control of their Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series vs the Philadelphia 76ers in a pivotal Game 5 on Tuesday night. When the going gets tough my money rides with the Celtics. BOSTON is 17-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.BOSTON is 17-5 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. PHILADELPHIA is 15-30 ATS) versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. 76ers are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.Play on Boston to cover |
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05-09-23 | Mets v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
The Mets will send right-hander Max Scherzer (2-2, 5.56 ERA). The veteran right hander looked tired at the end of last season, and just has not looked like the pitcher he was earlier in his career.Scherzer was bashed for six earned runs on eight hits over just 3 1/3 innings against Detroit last time out, and once again is being over rated. Meanwhile,In his last start, May 1 in San Diego, Weaver the Reds starter was charged with four runs on nine hits over 4 1/3 innings in an 8-3 loss to the Padres and looks like cannon fodder. Weaver has been cranked for 14 runs on 21 hits in just 16 innings of lackluster work . Im betting both pitcher give up enough runs for this tilt to be eclipsed early. Over is 8-3-2 in Mets last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-1 in Mets last 7 vs. National League Central. NY METS are 23-6 OVER after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.3 ppg scored. Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 during game 1 of a series.Over is 7-1 in Reds last 8 vs. National League East. MLB Home teams (CINCINNATI) - averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after a game they hit 4 or more home runs are 37-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play over |
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05-09-23 | Blue Jays v. Phillies -124 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Alek Manoah (1-2, 4.71 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays.In Manoah's last start against the Boston Red Sox, he gave up eight hits and five runs, two earned, in five innings.He has not looked as impressive as he did last season, and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well against this current version of the Phillies. Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Philadelphia ended their 6 game losing streak last time out, and Im now betting with some momentum back on their sides they come out of this tilt with a victory. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.possibly out for the Jays with left wrist soreness, the Phillies very much look like the right side. PHILADELPHIA is 25-9 against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons.  MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - after allowing 2 runs or less against opponent after a win by 4 runs or more are 12-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to win |
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05-09-23 | Blue Jays v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Phillies stater NOLA is 24-9 OVER in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average 9.9 rpg scored.NOLA is 18-6 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with combined average of 11.4 rpg going on the board.Over is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Meanwhile, Alek Manoah (1-2, 4.71 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays.In Manoah's last start against the Boston Red Sox, he gave up eight hits and five runs, two earned, in five innings.He has not looked as impressive as he did last season and according to my power rankings does not matchup well here vs a sometimes explosive Phillies batting order. Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia.Over is 5-2-1 in Phillies last 8 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Fast furious runs expected here . Play on the over |
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05-09-23 | Rays v. Orioles +114 | 2-4 | Win | 114 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
I know the Orioles have lost 3 straight and finally lost the opening game of a series this season by a 3-0 count after 11 straight victories . However, Im betting. a bounce back effort today on a value line based on my projections that estimate the Orioles have a better than 53% chance of taking this tilt. Orioles are 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Orioles are 20-7 in their last 27 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Orioles are 12-4 in their last 16 games following a loss. BALTIMORE is 21-17 against the money line in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last 2 seasons. BALTIMORE is 15-2 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. MLB team (TAMPA BAY) - good AL offensive team (5.1 or more runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season are 41-52 L/5 seasons. Play on the Orioles to win |
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05-08-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -3 | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
The long and winding road has not been kind to the Warriors this season as they have just 13 wins in 46 road games . I im betting the this talented by aging Lakers group understands the importance of a win now situation, as this is this groups last chance at a championship ie (James and Davis in particularly). Look for the old fellas to leave everything on the floor tonight and for the Lakers to bring home the cash. GOLDEN STATE is 5-13 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. GOLDEN STATE is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Conference Semifinals games.Warriors are 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. LA LAKERS are 14-6 ATSin home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game - 2nd half of the season this season. LA LAKERS are 7-0 ATS in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games. NBA Underdogs (GOLDEN STATE) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 12-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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05-08-23 | Nationals +190 v. Giants | 5-1 | Win | 190 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Anthony DeSclafani has pitched well to start off his season, but Im betting he is over achieving after watching him put up horrendous numbers last season, as is evident by a 6.63 ERA . Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Meanwhile, Irvin is an average pitcher who is in call up mode from the minors, but is supported with a up-trending Nationals bullpen. Irvin (0-0, 2.08 ERA) helped the Nationals' with 4 1/3 innings of two-hit, one-run ball in his major league debut on Wednesday at home against the Chicago Cubs and must not disrespected here. MARTINEZ is 25-17 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.40 or better as the manager of WASHINGTON. Giants are 2-7 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series. Play on the Nationals to win |
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05-08-23 | Dodgers v. Brewers -102 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Peralta (3-2, 3.63 ERA) will be opposed by right-hander Tony Gonsolin (0-0, 3.38), who is making his third start since coming off the injured list. Peralta is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers, including a 4-0 loss last season at American Family Field and gets the nod here vs a still 100% Gonsolin. I know Milwaukee has lost 6 games in a row all on the road , but all good and bad runs must come to an end, and Im betting on this current down trend to come to end for the Brewers today vs the visiting Dodgers who traveled on a red eye from the West Coast last night. MILWAUKEE is 21-6 against the money line after 6 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record. LA DODGERS are 11-21against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. ROBERTS is 21-39 ) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 as the manager of LA DODGERS. MILWAUKEE is 15-3 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game over the last 3 seasons. MLB Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - in a game involving two good teams (54% to 62%), playing on Monday are 33-8 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to win |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Suns | 124-129 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Devin Booker and Kevin Durant combined for 86 points in Game 3 as the Phoenix Suns got back into the Western Conference semifinals, but now Im betting on some immediate regression against a resilient group of Nuggets. Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.Nuggets coach Michael Malone was not pleased with his defenders and said his defense better be prepared to improve on Sunday. The primary focus will be on defending Booker, who is averaging 36.9 points per game this postseason. Malone has is his team fired up and ready to play. Malone is 46-25 ATS in road games off a road loss as the coach of DENVER. Malone is 33-16 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of DENVER. DENVER is 15-5 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season this season. DENVER is 14-6 ATS against Pacific division opponents this season. NBA team (PHOENIX) - when trailing in a playoff series, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 16-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.Play on the Nuggets to cover |
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05-07-23 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Staring ptichers: Urias the Dodgers starter a hurler who contended for Cy Young ward last season and is not performing very well at the moment, as he has garnered a 6.75 ERA in his L/3 starts and a 7.20 ERA on road starts this season. Meanwhile, Padres starter Musgrove has allowed 10 earned runs in just a little over 8 innings of work this season, and once again looks like cannon fodder. The Dodgers have clobbered right-handed pitching averaging 6.1 rpg in production while the Fathers have been consistent against left-handed pitching averaging 4.2 rpg. Both defenses have been average this season and the bullpens inconsistent which has me leaning on this game going over the offered total. Padres starter MUSGROVE is 36-18 OVER  vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in his career (Team's Record) with the average rpg clicking in at 11.1 .MUSGROVE is 26-12 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.9 rpg scored. MUSGROVE is 12-3 OVER (+8.9 Units) at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.8 rpg scored. Over is 9-4 in Padres last 13 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 6-1 in Dodgers last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Over is 8-2 in Dodgers last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Over is 7-2 in Dodgers last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. LA DODGERS are 11-1 OVER after 2 or more consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored. Play over |
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05-07-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. 76ers | 115-116 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Philadelphia is a top tier side, but the Celtics are an elite team with just to many weapons to contain. Yes, the Celtics have off nights, but their consistency and hunger for victory is something that makes them viable betting options, on a value line. The Celtics have also proven they matchup well vs the Sixers which Im sure is frustrating for the 76ers . That frustration manifests into mistakes, and that is when the Celtics are at their best. With Joel Embiid at less than 100% or not able to play today the Sixers are in trouble. Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Celtics are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.  BOSTON is 17-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. BOSTON is 26-11 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games BOSTON is 15-5 ATSwhen the line is +3 to -3 this season. BOSTON is 17-5 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. PHILADELPHIA is 1-10 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Rivers is 5-16 ATS  versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 11-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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05-07-23 | Blue Jays -125 v. Pirates | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
The Blue Jays, who entered the series with a five-game losing streak, have won the first two games of this series, with a 4-0 shutout Friday and an 8-2 beatdown yesterday and with momentum on their sides look very much like viable bets here today against the struggling Pirates who have lost 6 straight . Jays starter KIKUCHI is 15-7 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)TORONTO is 23-9 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start over the last 3 seasons. Kikuchi enters this game in top form, garnering a 2-0 record along with a 3.37 ERA in his last 3 starts including having  struck out 30 batters in 31 1/3 innings of work. Contreras the Pirates starter  advanced metrics - 4.32 xERA and a 5.16 xFIP. suggest he is being over rated against a explosive Blue Jays offense. Blue Jays are 40-19 in their last 59 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. TORONTO is 21-8 against the money line in road games after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. SCHNEIDER is 24-11 against the money line in road games vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game as the manager of TORONTO. Play on the Jays to win |
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05-07-23 | Orioles +148 v. Braves | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
The finale of this series now tied 1-1 features Atlanta's Bryce Elder (3-0, 1.75 ERA) against Baltimore's Tyler Wells (2-1, 3.34). WELLS is 12-4 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Orioles are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series and have an edge here according to my projections from a mathematical standpoint based on a value underdog line that is bloated. Orioles are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.Orioles are 9-3 in their last 12 road games. BALTIMORE is 22-11 against the money line in all games this season.BALTIMORE is 13-3) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. ATLANTA is 9-16 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague home games. MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or better over his last 3 starts, after a game where their bullpen blew a save 30-16 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Orioles are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. Play on Baltimore to win |
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05-06-23 | Astros -116 v. Mariners | 5-7 | Loss | -116 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
The Astros starting hurler France has been a strong minor league pitcher averaging  2.33 ERA in 19 1/3 innings this year in Triple-A ball , while averaging 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The 28 year old can make you miss, and against a Seattle team that is struggling to hit and score hes a prime candidate to help his team to a victory. Meanwhile, the Astros bats get to face a sub par hurler in Marco Gonzales who has garnered a bloated 4.74 ERA. MARCO GONZALES vs. HOUSTON -GONZALES is 2-9 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.459.Â
Astros are 37-18 in the last 55 meetings in Seattle.Astros are 52-19 in the last 71 meetings. MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games are 27-9 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Astros to win |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers -3 | 97-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
Its well documented how the Warriors have struggled on the road this season, garnering an ugly 13-32 record . they have recently come up big in a couple of road opportunities but, tonight their lack of mojo on the road Im betting will be evident vs a veteran laden side that knows how to win when the chips are down . Its crunch games like this that the aging King James shows us glimpses of what made him a super star in this league. Note: Los Angeles won the series opener on the road vs Memphis like they did against Golden State , lost Game 2 just like they did against the Grizzlies and then came home to take a commanding 3-1 series lead with a pair of victories. Rinse and repeat in play today. Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.Warriors are 17-38-1 ATS in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. LA LAKERS are 25-9 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. GOLDEN STATE is 5-13 ATS in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season.GOLDEN STATE is 7-15 ATS as a road underdog this season. GOLDEN STATE is 6-15 ATS  in road games after a game where they covered the spread this season. GOLDEN STATE is 5-13 ATS  on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season. NBA home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 104-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 227.5 | 97-127 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that Golden State will allow 115+ points here tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 25-6 OVER  when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.6 ppg. Meanwhile, the LA LAKERS are 13-4 OVER  when they score 115 to 120 points in a game this season with a combined average of 237 ppg going on the board. Advantage over. Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a straight up win.Over is 38-15 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 37-17-2 in Warriors last 56 road games. GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 OVER in road games after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 241 ppg scored..GOLDEN STATE is 14-3 OVER )on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. Ham is 41-26 OVER sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 236.5 ppg scored. Over is 11-2 in Lakers last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Play over |
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05-06-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -135 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
Vegas has scored 4 goals or more in 5 straight games, while Edmonton has scored 4 goals or more in 5 of their L/6 . My projections estimate 7 plus combined goals will be scored in this matchup tonight with each teams scoring 3+ goals.Â
EDMONTON is 6-0 OVER off a road loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined 7.7 gpg scored.EDMONTON is 11-2 OVER  revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.5 ggp scored.EDMONTON is 6-0 OVER in road games after 3 straight games where both teams scored 3 goals or more this season with a combined average of 9 gpg scored. EDMONTON is 8-1 OVER (when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 7.9 gpg scored. The L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed this Totals offering. Play over |
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05-06-23 | Twins v. Guardians UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Minnesota's starter Gray has not allowed more than one run in any of his starts this season and has garnered 41 strikeouts in 31 innings of top tier pitching .Meanwhile, the Guardians Allen has made two starts during this campaign, and looked good both times . The southpaw has not allowed more than three runs and struck out 16 batters in 11 innings of quality work. I expect both starters to long and strong and for both od these decent bullpens to hold the proverbial fort. Note:The Twins pen ranks 13th while garnering a 3.73 ERA, while the Guardians rank eighth in MLB with a 3.35 ERA. Im betting on the pitching staffs having the upper hand on the offenses today. CLEVELAND is 7-0 UNDER vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season with a combined average of 4.6 rpg scored.Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 home games. Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 21-6 in Guardians last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning recor Under is 8-2-1 in Twins last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 3-1-2 in Twins last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. MINNESOTA is 37-11 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored. Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Cleveland. Play on the under |
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05-06-23 | Knicks v. Heat -3.5 | 86-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
All season long the pundits wondered what was wrong with the Heat, as they flailed away playing inconsistent basketball more often than not. It seems the Heat saved their best hoops for the play offs and are now in top form, as was evident when the defeated the defending Milwaukee Bucks in the opening round of the play offs.. With that said, Im now betting after a hard fought loss in game 2 of this series, that they bounce back in classic zig zag theory mode, and deliver a win vs a Knicks at their own home court. I know Jimmy butler is listed as questionable, but this is to important of a game for him to miss with a lower grade ankle issue. Even if butler cannot take to the court I believe this Heat team is deep enough to compete and grab the victory. MIAMI is 18-8 ATS  after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons .MIAMI is 18-8 ATS  after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Spoelstra is 28-13 ATS in the second round of the playoffs as the coach of MIAMI. Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. MIAMI is 28-16 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Heat has covered 5 straight games. Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Conference Semifinals games. Play on Miami to cover |
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05-06-23 | Tigers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Detroits starter Turnbull has been battered this season as he returns from Tommy John surgery. The righty hurler has garnered a bloated 6.83 ERA . Meanwhile, veteran righty Wainwright makes his season debut for the struggling Cards . his velocity was off late last season, and he is throwing alot of soft stuff, curveballs in particular, that a decent hitting and up-trending Tigers offense Im betting can tee off on. Note: St.Louis has allowed 33 runs in thier L/5 games and with Wainwright on the hill more runs should be on the agenda. As far as the Cards offense goes, they should get a boost facing a pitcher that is in fade material mode at this time. DETROIT is 7-0 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored . Advantage to the over |
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05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
Down two games to zero the Suns have their backs up against the proverbial wall and will come out firing bullets tonight . DENVER is 4-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Malone is 4-16 ATS  in road games after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more as the coach of DENVER. Advantage Phoenix.  PHOENIX is 13-4 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season. NBA Road underdogs (DENVER) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 16-39 ATS L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Phoenix to cover ( Late Steam) |
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05-05-23 | Dodgers -113 v. Padres | 2-5 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
The Dodgers are rocking and rolling right now with 6 straight wins and a recent  offensive explosion of 42 runs in their L/4 trips to the diamonds. In their current form they are worth trailing on a value line in a advantageous situation according to my power rankings. KERSHAW is 24-9 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.14 and a WHIP of 0.964.The three-time Cy Young Award winner has a 0.763 WHIP and a .175 opponents' batting average and looks like he is back in his prime.Kershaw is 11-4 with a 1.87 ERA in 20 career starts at Petco Park. Dodgers are 58-21 in their last 79 during game 1 of a series.  Dodgers are 70-27 in their last 97 games vs. a right-handed starter and have the advantage here vs the Fathers today like Fathers starter Darvish. Darvish is 3-5 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 2.47 ERA, 82 strikeouts and 17 walks in 62 innings over 10 starts. Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 games following an off day. MLB team (SAN DIEGO) - after allowing 1 run or less against opponent after scoring 8 runs or more 3 straight games are 9-33 L/26 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate. Dodgers are 66-30 in the last 96 meetings. Play on Los Angeles Dodgers to win |
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05-05-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes -110 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Less than 48 hours after clinching their series against the New York Rangers in seven games, the visiting Devils were outshot 11-1 and outscored 2-0 in the first period of Game 1 against the rested Hurricanes, eventually losing by a 5-1 count. Even though I expect the Devils to play better in game 2 in this series, I still dont expect them to win this game against a more physical side that plays their best hockey at home. With G Andersen expected to start Game 2 for the Canes after stopping 50 of 52 shots over Carolina’s past two tilts, the Canes have the edge according to my projections. CAROLINA is 28-4 ATS in home games after allowing 2 goals or less in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Hurricanes are 23-8 in their last 31 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.Hurricanes are 40-15 in their last 55 home games.Hurricanes are 37-15 in their last 52 games following a win.Hurricanes are 19-8 in their last 27 Conference Semifinals games. Hurricanes are 35-17 in their last 52 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. CAROLINA is 22-7 ATS in home games against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp over the last 3 seasons. Devils are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Carolina.Home team is 13-4 in the last 17 meetings.Favorite is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. Play on Carolina to win |
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05-05-23 | A's v. Royals -155 | 12-8 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
The Athletics will send lefty Kyle Muller (0-2, 6.28 ERA) to the mound against Royals righty Brad Keller (2-2, 3.56). Muller has allowed 56 baserunners in 28 2/3 innings. My power rankings suggest this is a pitching mismatch favoring the Royals.One of the few bright spots among Royals starters, Keller has allowed hitters to a .226 BA , in 30 1/3 innings.
OAKLAND is 1-17 against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season. MLB Road teams (OAKLAND) - with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games, in May games are 15-57 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Royals to win |
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05-05-23 | Celtics -1.5 v. 76ers | 114-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
With 76ers star  Embiid still dealing with a knee injury and less than 100% or not playing at all the home side is at a disadvantage vs a Celtics side that now looks wide awake after a DD win last time out vs the Sixers. Advantage Celtics . BOSTON is 16-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.BOSTON is 14-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. PHILADELPHIA is 14-29 ATS versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. NBA Home underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 30 points or more against opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 8-31 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate. Play on the Celtics to cover |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
The Warriors succumbed to the Lakers in game 1 of this series, but in classic zig zag theory Im betting the Warriors rebound in a big way here this evening.Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Warriors are 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 home games. LA LAKERS are 9-21 ATS off a road win over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 36-16 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. Kerr is 22-3 ATS revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite as the coach of GOLDEN STATE.( Lakers won the last reg season meeting at home and than took out the Warriors in Game 1 of this series) NBA Favorites (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a home loss are 99-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBAHome favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 30-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Warriors to cover |
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05-04-23 | Mariners v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
George Kirby, 2-2, 2.93 ERA, will get the start for the Mariners. The Athletics will counter with Drew Rucinski, 0-1, 4.76 ERA. Seattle’s pitching staff has been consistent, as is evident by giving up an average 4.14 runs per game. Opposition batting orders have garnered a lowly .230 batting average against the Mariners, which ranks seventh in the league. Their 3.52 ERA is also seventh, as is their 1.21 WHIP are also ranked 7th. Meanwhile, I know the As pitching is one of the most inconsistent in all of MLB , but this matchup and pitcher vs batting order projections looks favorable for them when it comes to limiting the Mariners offensive production with D. Rucinski on the hill . (Yes Hill has not impressed of late but does matchup well here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 road games.Under is 7-3 in Mariners last 10 during game 3 of a series. Under is 9-4 in Athletics last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 5-2 in Athletics last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Seattles starter Kirby.OAKLAND is 17-6 UNDER after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons MLB Road teams (SEATTLE) - after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 32-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for. a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Play under |
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05-04-23 | Brewers v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 6-9 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Colorados starter Seabold (0-0, 5.27 ERA) will match up against Brewers lefty Wade Miley (3-1, 1.86). My projections estimate that Seahold matches up well vs a 4.4 rpg on a .240 BA. Meanwhile, Miley also matches up well here vs a Colorado side averaging 3.9 rpg. I know Coors Filed is a proverbial launching pad, but this series has been fairly low scoring so far and nothing will change today according to my projections. Under is 12-3-1 in Brewers last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like Seabold.Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher. MLB Road teams where the total is 11 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 37-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for. a 82 % conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-03-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
All 4 games between these teams this season eclipsed this Totals offering from the books, and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Edmonton usually plays a one way style of offensive hockey behind an explosive lineup and the Vegas Knights will have to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or proverbially be  blown off the ice. EDMONTON is 5-0 OVER in road games after 3 straight games where both teams scored 3 goals or more this season with a combined average of 8.8 gpg scored.EDMONTON is 20-9 OVER ( against poor defensive teams - 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or better pp in the 2nd half of the year this season with a combined average of 7.6 gpg scored.EDMONTON is 23-10 OVER against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 7.6 gpg scored. My  projections estimate both teams will score 3 goals plus each.EDMONTON is 40-0 OVER when both teams score 3 or more goals this season with a combined average of 7.7 gpg scored.VEGAS is 26-0 OVER  when both teams score 3 or more goals this season with a combined average of 8.1 gpg scored. Play on the OVER |
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05-03-23 | Brewers v. Rockies +104 | 1-7 | Win | 104 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Freeland (2-3, 4.32 ERA) will square off against Milwaukee's Eric Lauer (3-2, 5.19) in a battle of left-handers. Milwaukee has struggled against southpaw pitching averaging just 3.2 rpg via .202 BA. FREELAND is 33-18 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in his career. (Team's Record) Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MILWAUKEE) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or worse) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season are 39-84 L/26 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Brewers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.Brewers are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in Colorado. Colorado Rockies to win |
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05-03-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -10 | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
I am betting the Celtics will bounce back here with a top tier brand of defense, something that alluded them in game 1 of this series as they lost 119-115 to the 76ers. Boston ranks 5th in ppg allowed in the NBA and own the top SRS mark with a 6.38.  SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average BOSTON is 19-7 ATS off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite of 6 or more points. BOSTON is 15-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 5-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. NBA Favorites (BOSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 42-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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05-03-23 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -112 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Torontos starter MANOAH is 10-1 UNDER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)MANOAH is 15-4 UNDER in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)Manoah has been outstanding in six career starts against the Red Sox, going 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 37 innings and Im betting another top notch effort tonight. Meanwhile,Nick Pivetta (1-2, 5.11 ERA) goers to the hill for Boston . The right-hander has pitched at least five innings and recorded at least five strikeouts in four of his first five starts and is edging into top form. Note: Under is 9-2-1 in Blue Jays last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 8-3-2 in Blue Jays last 13 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Play under |
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05-03-23 | Reds v. Padres UNDER 9 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Reds starter Cessa may not inspire bettors when looking at an under bet but it must be noted that SAN DIEGO is 9-1 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse over the last 2 seasons like the Reds expected starter Cessa. On the flips side , Lugo who makes his 15th career appearance (second start) against the Reds owns a a 1.04 ERA, a 1.154 WHIP and a .234 opponents' batting average vs Cinncy. He has pitched well this season, and deserves respect in his ability to limit the inconsistent Red offense here today and help us get paid via an under wager. Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 during game 3 of a series.Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 vs. National League Central. Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-3 in Reds last 10 vs. a team with a winning recordS. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season are 39-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play under |
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05-02-23 | Phillies v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 1-13 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Philadelphia will send left-hander Matt Strahm (2-2, 2.31 ERA) to the mound.The Dodgers will counter with lefty Julio Urias (3-3, 4.41 ERA), who won the National League ERA title last season with a 2.16 mark. Urias, who is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA lifetime against the Phillies in six appearances (four starts) is capable of holding the Phillies bats down. Also according to my pitcher vs power rankings numbers matches up well here. Factoring in the bull pens as well has me projecting a totals line closer to 7 which gives us a full run of value to the under. Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. Dodgers starter URIAS is 19-8 UNDER  vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games. PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 UNDER after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs over the last 3 seasons. Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (LA DODGERS) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games are 40-11 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games are 50-24 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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05-02-23 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers +140 | 4-6 | Win | 140 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Texas has averaged 6.4 rpg vs right handed starter like the Dbacks starter Gallen and 6.7 rpg at home this season, and are a value home dog here according to my projections. Diamondbacks are 4-10 in their last 14 during game 1 of a series.Diamondbacks are 8-20 in their last 28 vs. American League West. Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (TEXAS) - good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season, after a combined score of 17 runs or more are 25-9 L/5 seasons for. a 74% conversion rate for bettors. (Texas smashed the Yankees 15-2 L/time out). Play on the Texas Rangers to win |
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05-02-23 | Heat v. Knicks -6.5 | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
With Miamis top player Butler unable to finish Game 1 because an ankle issue, and New York's star forward Julius Randle unable to start game 1 it due to a sprained left ankle both sides maybe without their top players. Looking at the depth of the rosters has me now leaning on the Knicks to bounce back in classic zig zag theory mode. It must also be noted that the Heat are 9-26 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season. (Miami upset the Heat in Game 1 of this series)
NEW YORK is 10-2 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW YORK is 20-11 ATS versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. NEW YORK is 17-3 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a playoff game, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 29-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Tuesday nights are 26-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. Play on NY Knicks to cover NBA Favorites (NEW YORK) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 79-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. NBAUnderdogs (MIAMI) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 16-48 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NYK to cover |
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05-02-23 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Minnesotas starter RYAN is 10-1 OVER  in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11 rpg scored. CHI WHITE SOX are 18-4 OVER in home games vs. a starting pitcher like Ryan whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 13.3 rpg scored. Over is 9-2-1 in White Sox last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Ryan.Meanwhile, White Sox Tuesday starter Michael Kopech owns a (0-3, 7.01 ERA) and a bloated 9.31 ERA at home. My pitcher vs batting order power ranking suggest the Twins matchup well against him and should do some early damage. which will help us eclipse this total. Over is 11-3-1 in White Sox last 15 home games.Over is 19-6-3 in White Sox last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning record.BALDELLI is 27-11 OVER in road games in May games as the manager of MINNESOTA with a combined average of 10.3 rpg scored.ÂMLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less) (AL), after scoring 10 runs or more are 39-11 OVER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 10.1 rpg. MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, after 2 straight games where their bullpen blew a save are 62-27 OVER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 9.9 rpg going on the scoreboard. Over is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago. Play over |
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05-02-23 | Twins -160 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
White Sox are 7-20 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like the Twins starter Ryan.  White Sox garnered a victory last time out, but that has not been a recipe for success in the follow up as the White Sox are 0-8 in their last 8 games following a win. Rinse and repeat is the bet here. Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League Central.Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Home underdogs with a money line of +125 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game, after 2 straight games where the bullpen was hit hard for 4+ earned runs are 4-33 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Twins to win |
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05-01-23 | Reds +1.5 v. Padres | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Padres starter SNELL is 0-11 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) I know he has pitched well recently but it must be noted thatSNELL is 5-13  against the money line after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Reds are 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 overall and get the nod here on. a value run line. Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. National League Central. Play on Cincinnati Reds +1.5 runline |
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05-01-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -10 | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
Sixers super star Embiid sustained a sprained LCL in his right knee during Game 3 of Philadelphia's first-round series against the Brooklyn Nets and did not play when the 76ers clinched the series with a win in Game 4. If he plays here tonight he will be less than 100% which will directly effect the flow of this the Sixers. Embiid scored 52 points in Philadelphia's lone victory over Boston, a 103-101 outcome in April and without his presence or lack their off involvement in this tilt are at an extreme disadvantage. So asking DDs is not as extreme as many may expect.PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.BOSTON is 15-3 ATS  when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season. Play on Boston to cover |
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05-01-23 | Blue Jays -137 v. Red Sox | 5-6 | Loss | -137 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
Jays had a 7 game win streak end yesterday in a loss to Seattle, and will now be n a bounce back mode here today. Jays starter Berrios owns a stingy 1.42 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill and is in top form. His team has won his L/3 starts vs the Red Sox and my power rankings suggest he matches up well here against the BoSox starter Kluber who has recorded a 6.89 ERA in his L/3 starts including a 0-3 record and 8.78 ERA at home in Fenway this season. Advantage Blue Jays. BOSTON is 34-54 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons like the Jays starter Berrios. MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TORONTO) - AL team with a low slugging percentage (.410 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or better), starting a pitcher who gave up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 61-14 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Toronto to win |
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