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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-24-18 | Grizzlies v. Heat OVER 195.5 | 89-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
The Heat, are off a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans 124-123 in overtime on Friday night, and have lost eight of their past nine games. Needless to say the Heat will be exhausted here, and will not be able to play their usual physical brand of defensive basketball on tired legs. Note Miami as allowed 6 of their L/7 opponents to score 104 more points, allowing an average of 112.33 ppg in those tilts.Over is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. Meanwhile, Memphis also on tired legs after paying last night continues down an ugly path, especially with their defensive play allowing 12 of their L/13 opponents to score 101 or more points, something I'm betting happens again in a more wide open game than the lines-makers expect. Over is 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.
MEMPHIS is 12-1 OVER L/13 in road games on Saturday games with a combined average score of 215.8 ppg scored. The over is 4-1 in the Grizzlies last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 8-3 in Grizzlies last 11 road games.Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami. MIAMI is 26-12 OVER in home games after allowing 115 points or more with a combined average of 200.9 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 33-5 OVER L/21 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 207.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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02-24-18 | Santa Clara +19.5 v. St. Mary's | 40-67 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
The Broncos are value line dogs here, and have been playing some good hoops of late, despite of having their three-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with a home loss to Loyola Marymount on Senior Night losing by 1 point 65-64..Over the last four games, Santa Clara is shooting 49.0 percent from the floor making them dangerous DD dogs in their current form . Meanwhile, The No. 22/20 Gaels are set as the No. 2 seed in next week's WCC Tournament and have very little left to play for other than staying healthy. ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games when playing against a lower tier team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%).ST MARYS-CA is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games on Saturday games.ST MARYS-CA is 2-10 ATS L/12 when playing with one or less days rest this season. St.Marys is 15-1 SU at home this season but have only covered four times. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (ST MARYS-CA) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 15-50 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Santa Clara to cover |
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02-24-18 | Louisiana-Monroe +6 v. Troy State | 67-73 | Push | 0 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
LA Monroe enters this game having won and covered 5 straight and 7 of their L/8 and are not an easy out for any team in their current top tier form. Meanwhile, their hosts Troy State have lost 2 straight, and despite of being 9-4 at home this season are just .500 vs the spread. LA Monroe is very confident at the moment, and have a recent history of playing Troy very tough covering the L/4 meetings in this series including a win and cover in their L/visit here and get the nod again. LA-MONROE is 8-2 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season. LA-MONROE is 6-0 ATS L/6 versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season.TROY is 3-12 ATS L/15 in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game .TROY is 3-12 ATS L/15 in home games after a game where they covered the spread which happened last time out. CBB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA-MONROE) - hot team - covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread, playing with one or less days rest 53-22 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on LA Monroe to cover |
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02-24-18 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 217.5 | 105-116 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
Philadelphia plays their best defensive basketball at home this season , and in recent action have not allowed 5 of their L/8 opponents to score more than 98 points when playing as hosts. Overall leading up to the all star break the Sixers allowed an average of just 94.8 ppg in 5 games all wins and are currently ranked 4th in the league in Defensive effecnicy . They did take part in a high scoring affair in their first game after the break, but will now be prepared to clamp down defensively vs a inconsistent Orlando offense ( Ranked 19th in Off Effecnicy). I'm betting on a total combined score to remain on the low side of the total. PHILADELPHIA is 11-1 UNDER L/12 in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) with a combined average of 203.7 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 20-11 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 213 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 41-11 and 6-0 this season UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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02-24-18 | Kansas +2 v. Texas Tech | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
This version of Kansas may not be on the same level of Villanova or Virginia , but believe me when I say this is still a top tier team with plenty of pedigree which is backed by the experience of one of the best coaches in basketball Bill Self. Today in revenge mode for their worst loss in the Bill Self's tenure at this school in home games ( 85-73), I expect payback to be at the forefront of this battle vs Texas Tech. Note: Kansas has never been swept in a same season series by any Big 12 conference opponent, while the Red Raiders are just 2-14 ATS as chalk vs a side with revenge from a 10 point or more loss . KANSAS is 20-9 ATS L/29 in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game . KANSAS is 11-3 ATS L/14 in road games versus excellent teams - shooting 45% or better with a defense of 42% or better. CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival are 44-18 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Kansas to cover |
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02-24-18 | James Madison +2.5 v. Delaware | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
The Cardinals visit Blacksburg, Va. to face the Virginia Tech Hokies . My power rankings suggest these teams are evenly matched and is indicating value with taking James Madison in this spot. In their first meeting this season Delaware won 61-60 and in their final matchup last year another 1 point deficit saw Delaware win 58-57. I will not be surprised at all if this is also a one possession tilt, favoring the road dog to cover. JAMES MADISON is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. CBB Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JAMES MADISON) - good free throw shooting team (69-73%) against an average free throw shooting team (65-69%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games are 70-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on James Madison to cover |
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02-24-18 | Villanova -7.5 v. Creighton | 83-89 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
Villanova enters this road game vs Creighton after having defeated and annihilating DePaul 93-62 on Wednesday evening in full big dance dress rehearsal mode. With that said, I expect the Wildcats will be ready to crush another hoops program. I know Virginia is ranked No.1 in the national polls, but according to my own power rankings systems Villanova is numero uno, and viable single digit road favs against almost any team in the country including Creightoin. VILLANOVA is 8-1 ATS versus good passing teams, averaging 16 or more assists/game this season.CREIGHTON is 4-12 ATS L/16 versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots. VILLANOVA is 15-4 ATS /19 after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent.CREIGHTON is 1-7 ATS as an underdog this season with the average margin SU loss coming by 13 ppg. The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS L/9 as road chalk with 3 or more days rest vs sides like the Blue Jays off back to back su/ats wins vs opposition with revenge. Villanova is 6-0 ATS L/6 in this series. CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (VILLANOVA) - in a game involving two 3 point shooting teams (20/game or more ), after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent are 55-23 ATS L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Villanova to cover |
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02-24-18 | Baylor v. TCU OVER 147 | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
My own projections for this game suggest both teams will score at least 75 points each here today. BAYLOR is 9-0 OVER in games where both teams score 75 or more points over the last few seasons with a combined average of 174.5 ppg scored. .TCU is 11-1 OVER in games where both teams score 75 or more points this season with a combined average of 169.5 ppg going on the board. Both these teams play contrasting styles of basketball. TCU is a run and gun group, while Baylor likes to slow things down. But from a matchup perspective, Baylor is going to have to pick up their pace on offense if they want to keep up here in an environment where the home team should be able to make the speed of this tilt more to their liking. With that said, I'm expecting a total combined score that eclipses this number. TCU is 16-5 OVER L/21 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 163.3 ppg scored.TCU is 7-1 OVER L/8 when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.TCU is 6-0 OVER in home games against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 163.9 ppg. Dixon is 12-1 OVER after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers as the coach of TCU with a combined average of 159.9 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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02-23-18 | Spurs +3.5 v. Nuggets | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
The San Antonio Spurs went into the all star break losing five of their last six games and now the pundits are jumping off the band wagon. I'm saying not so quick. This franchise has just to much pedigree and experience to be dismissed so easily and must be respected here tonight as well rested road underdogs. I know the experts are currently in love with the Denver Nuggets, after having won nine of their last 12, but this is still a team that has proven itself inconsistent and needs a little more positive momentum to be looked upon with such fondness from the media. I understand we live in the world of instant gratification and what have you done for me lately attitude, but I'm still a believer in Popovich and company and that get my backing here tonight . The Nuggets did beat the Spurs in their last meeting on Feb 13 by a 117-109 count, but the Spurs are 8-3 SU/ATS with same season revenge in this series, and his Spurs are 11-3 SU when playing on 6 or more days rest. Spurs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.Nuggets are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Spurs are 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings in Denver. NBA Favorites (DENVER) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a struggling defensive team (98-102 PPG), after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 59-104 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 64% for bettors on the blind. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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02-23-18 | Ohio State v. Indiana +2 | 80-78 | Push | 0 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Ohio State has had a tremendous campiagn, and are the surprise team of the Big 10, but Archie Miller's Indiana has expentionally shown imporvement as this season has progressed and must not be underestimated here as home dogs. Note: HC Miller is 5-0 ATS as a home dog in conference action.In the last 5 games, IU is shooting 51.9% from the field and 43.2% from beyond the arc, while holding opponents to 38.4% shooting from the field and 29.9% from the land of the trey. |
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02-22-18 | Pepperdine +20 v. St. Mary's | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
St.Mary;s thanks to their great record and superiority over most teams in this conference are been made huge favs on a consistent basis, but a lot of times the line is slightly bloated and offer value for advantage players. I know Pepperdine has had a down season, and are banged up , but they are more than capable of covering here tonight, behind Colbey Ross who has set the Waves freshman record for assists in a season. The top tier freshman in the WCC in both scoring (14.5, seventh overall) and assists (5.6, second overall, 35th nationally)is coming off a 21-point effort at Gonzaga. ST MARYS-CA is 2-9 ATS L/11 in home games when playing against a team with a losing record.ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points over the last 2 seasons. ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS l/6 in home games off a road win by 10 points or more and is 1-8 ATS l/9 in home games after playing a road game ( The Gaels beat Portland last time out 73-61) Home favorites of 10 or more points (ST MARYS-CA) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 15-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pepperdine to cover |
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02-22-18 | UCLA v. Utah -3.5 | 78-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
UCLA enters this tilt vs their hosts Utah having won two straight and six of its last seven games dating back to Jan. 25. While recording a 14-2 home record, the Bruins are just 2-5 SU overall in road games this season (2-4 in Pac-12 road games) and despite of their current level of play are fade material vs this type of quality opponent on the road. Add to that Utah currently on a 4 game win streak got clobbered and embarrassed by the Bruins 83-64 six weeks ago and you have a very motivated side to back in this spot. UCLA is 6-15 ATS L/21 in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games . Alford is 1-9 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season as the coach of UCLA.
CBB A road team (UCLA) - after scoring 75 points or more 4 straight games, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 26-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Utah to cover |
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02-22-18 | Wizards v. Cavs OVER 220.5 | 110-103 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
After almost a weeks rest both these very capable offensive sides will be fresh and ready to run and gun here as they prepare to start the stretch drive towards the play offs in a game that my projections suggest will eclipse this number. Cleveland Ranks 5th in offensive output in the NBA and 27th in points allowed and 29th in defensive effecnicy . Leading up to the all star game the Cavs registered 140,123, 121, 120 in offensive production 4 straight games. Washington ranks 9th in offensive effecnicy and 15th in points allowed. Washington has scored 101 or more ppg in 10 straight games and have allowed 11 of their L/13 opponents to put 100 or more points on the board.
NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CLEVELAND/WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or better) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 28-4 OVER L/5 seasons and a 6-0 so far this season for dual 88% and 100% conversion rates for bettors. Play OVER |
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02-22-18 | Charlotte +19 v. Western Kentucky | 55-93 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Charlotte has had a down season, and are currently on a 12 game losing skid, but they have been competitive lately, and during this ugly run have only once lost by more than 19 points. Earlier this season, WKU defeated Charlotte, 73-63, in Halton Arena, (January 13), and my projections estimate a 14 point win here for Western Kentucky in the rematch, which gives us very good value with the underdog in this spot. CHARLOTTE is 6-0 ATS L/6 vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games over the last few seasons. CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - off a home loss against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 88-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Charlotte to cover |
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02-22-18 | Wild v. Devils +110 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
The New Jersey Devils are currently playing some exceptional hockey and have won 4 of their L/5 overall, behind star forward Taylor Hall who leads the Devils (31-21-8) with 25 goals and 63 points and is a plus+15 during his last 19 games.. Tonight against expected Wild back up starting goalie Alex Stalock 3.52 GGA vs Devils, I'm betting Hall and company do enough damage to get us a win. Note: Minnesota has struggled away from home this season recording a sub par 12-16 record while allowing 3.6 gpg while scoring just 2.8gpg. |
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02-22-18 | Rice +6 v. Florida Atlantic | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
These two struggling College Hoops programs are sides that actually matchup fairly evenly despite of the home sides superior record. Make no mistake Rice is a team with very few positives attached to them, but from a systems stand point and according to my cross reference rankings are capable pups vs this type of opponent. My own projections have made Florida Atlantic 4 point chalk here, thus giving us underdog value on the line . FAU won the previous meeting this year on Jan. 27, 63-62, at Tudor Fieldhouse in a hard fought affair, and a rinse and repeat situation is not out of the question tonight. Rice has won its last two visits to Boca Raton. FLA ATLANTIC is 2-12 ATS L/14 versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season. FLA ATLANTIC is 1-8 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games dating back to last season. RICE is 6-0 ATS L/6 in road games in February games dating back to last season. CBB Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (FLA ATLANTIC) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 28-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 70% for bettors. CBB An underdog (RICE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, a struggling team( 20% or less ) playing a team with a losing record are 45-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rice to cover |
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02-22-18 | Wisconsin +3.5 v. Northwestern | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Wisconsin has had a down season behind a very inexperienced young group, but according to my matchup analysis are solid competition for what my power rankings suggest is an over rated Northwestern program.Wisconsin has won 15 of the last 20 SU against the Wildcats overall, but NU won an earlier match-up this season, 60-52, at the Kohl Center and now with revenge on board for the Badgers. I,m betting we will get a motivated effort from them here vs a Chris Collins team that is just 5-10 ATS L/15 at home vs avenging Big 10 opposition . Note: The Badgers have won 5 of their last 6 trips to Evanston. . Note: Over the last two games, Wisconsin held Purdue (-29.5) and Minnesota (-13.5) to an average of 21.5 points below their season scoring averages. Winners of three of the last four, Wisconsin is my choice here tonight. CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (WISCONSIN) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home win by 10 points or more are 161-106 ATS L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Wisconsin to cover |
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02-21-18 | San Jose State +22 v. Nevada | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
San José State travels to Reno this Wednesday to face the Mountain West leading No.24-Nevada Wolf Pack. The last time these teams played the Wolfpack took out the Spartans by a 71-54 count. However, San José State played one of its best halves of the season allowing the Wolf Pack to 26.7 percent shooting and took a 26-24 lead into halftime, before succumbing in the 2nd half vs an extremely experienced and talented side. However, now with a blueprint in hand on how to compete with the Pack I'm betting San Jose State will be very prepared for the rematch. It must also be noted that despite of the DD loss, in that above mentioned game that it was just two-possession game with under five minutes to play in the second half. With that said, lets take the points. NEVADA is 7-19 ATS /26 versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 8+ points/game .SAN JOSE ST is 8-2 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
Play on the San Jose State Spartans to cover |
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02-21-18 | Alabama v. Auburn -7.5 | 71-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
Bruce Pearl has assembled a pretty darn good group here at Auburn, and despite of some round about accusations about how he has done it , the fact still remains that this a up trending hoops program that must be respected . Here tonight in a big time rivalry , I expect the Auburn to be ready to bring down the hammer, vs a side that upset them earlier this season, by a 76-71 count, and that is in a let down scenario after a hard fought 81-71 loss to Kentucky this past weekend. Note: Auburn is a perfect 7-0 ATS vs teams off a loss this season. I know the Tigers also lost last time out, 84-75 to South Carolina in a surprising upset, but in the Tigers only other three losses this season, they came back and rebounded in their next game in explosive fashion cashing all three times, with a double-digit victories. Tigers are shooting 48 percent and averaging 89.1 points per game at home this season. They have won 12 of their 14 home games by double digits. Rinse and repeat here tonight. Auburn is 13-4 ATS l/17 at home in this series and have won and covered the two most recent games here at home. Pearl is 21-10 ATS as a home favorite or pick as the coach of AUBURN. AUBURN is 16-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and have covered 8 of their L/10 vs above .500 squads.AUBURN is 12-1 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more this season.AUBURN is 6-0 ATS L/6 after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Play on Auburn to cover |
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02-21-18 | Fordham +17 v. Davidson | 52-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
According to my own projections this line is slightly bloated thus giving us value with the underdog Fordham. Recently Fordham has shown some life, and despite of a overall dismal record are 3-3 in their L/6 games, upsetting Umass, Duquesne and George Mason. Look for a rejuvenated Fordham team that got clobbered by Davidson back on Jan 14 at home to come out here looking to get some respect and be much more competitive . Note: Fordham leads the league, and is sixth in the nation, in steals with 243 (9.3/game) and can be a pesky side to play against , especially for free flowing sides like Davidson. CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (FORDHAM) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 102-52 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (FORDHAM) - a terrible offensive team (63 or less PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after allowing 80 points or more are 90-43 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Fordham to cover |
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02-21-18 | Georgia Tech +17.5 v. Virginia | 54-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Virginia the No.1 ranked team in the nation, has some pretty big spreads attached to their favorite status , which in turn offers up the occasional line value on their underdog opponents. Tonight that's exactly the situation.The Cavaliers have clinched a double-bye in the ACC Tournament and will be out just looking to stay healthy as we get loser to tournament time, thus giving us value with a program that has cashed 14 of their L/20 as road underdogs in this series. Note: Fourteen of Georgia Tech's contests this season have been decided by 10 points or less, including six ACC games, and they were not decided until the final few minutes. Tech has played nine games decided by five points or fewer or in overtime, most for any ACC team other than Florida State (10). GEORGIA TECH is 21-10 ATS L/31 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last few seasons. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (VIRGINIA) - after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 15-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors, CBB Road underdogs of 20 or more points (GEORGIA TECH) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 45-16 ATS L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Georgia Tech to cover |
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02-21-18 | Duquesne +12 v. St Bonaventure | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Duquesne goes to Olean, N.Y. to battle St. Bonaventure this Wednesday night. St.Bonnie might be susceptible to a letdown situation here after a big time 77-74 win over #16 (AP) Rhode Island this past Friday. SBU barely got by Duquesne in their first meeting 84-81 win and I'm betting covering won't come easily this time around either. ST BONAVENTURE is 20-35 ATS L/55 as a home favorite of 10 or more points. ST BONAVENTURE is 0-6 ATS L/6 after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread. Duquesne has cover 12 of their L/18 visits here and 2-0 ATS in their to most recent trips to Olean. Six of the past nine overall meetings in this series have been decided by four or fewer points. CBB Road underdogs of 10 or more points (DUQUESNE) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less against opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals are 38-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Duquesne to cover |
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02-20-18 | Bruins v. Oilers +116 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Boston's been tearing up the league in robotic fashion for almost 3 months going (30-6-4), but after exerting a great deal of energy over that period of time, aare starting to look a little worn out, with recent losses to non play off teams Buffalo and Vancouver, proving they are just human. After playing a grueling physical game last night, in 2-1 in win Calgary the Bruins are now susceptible to being upset by a Oilers team on a 3 game home win streak overall and that has owned this series of late winning the L/6 meetings. I'm betting on super star Conner McDavid and company notching the upset here at home. BOSTON is 2-9 ATS L/11 revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more this season.(Edmonton beat the Bruins in Beantown earlier this season by a 4-2 count) Talbot the Oilers goalie is in top form , splitting his last two starts, but stopped 55 of 58 shots during that span. He also has won four of his last six starts at home. Play on Edmonton to win on the moneyline |
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02-20-18 | Northern Illinois +10 v. Ball State | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
Despite of N.Illinois experiencing a down season, they are being underestimated here according to my own player to player matchup systems analysis and we have value taking the dog on this line. NIU I'm betting will ride the momentum from its 75-67 upset victory over Western Michigan this past Saturday and keep the flow going here today against a team they have circled for payback for two losses they suffered to Ball State last season. It must be noted NIU is 5-0 ATS as DD dogs here as visitors and 6-1 ATS with revenge. Meanwhile, Ball State is in a emotional letdown situation after a huge battle that they won vs Toledo on the weekend, and could easily be flat here tonight against a team that I'm sure they are over looking. BALL ST is 12-29 ATS as a favorite over the last few seasons. BALL ST is 2-11 ATS after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better. CBB road team (N ILLINOIS) - off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a home win scoring 85 or more points are 34-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Northern Illinois to cover |
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02-20-18 | Creighton +5.5 v. Butler | 70-93 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
Creighton is 19-8 this year (8-6 BIG EAST) in has played a hard core nine games against ranked opponents. Six of the Jays losses were vs teams that were ranked at the time (No. 22 Baylor, No. 15 Gonzaga, No. 23 Seton Hall, No. 10 Xavier, No. 1 Villanova, No. 5 Xavier), despite of those setbacks the Bluejays are also one of 27 teams nationally with three wins over top-25 teams and must not be underestimated as dogs against any opponent, especially against Butler program that they matchup well against.( blue Jays are 4-1 SU/5 meetings and have covered 7 of the L/9 overall in this series) Creighton has won the last three games by scores of 75-64, 76-67 and 85-74.Creighton has shown the ability to slow down Butlers top offensive threat in the recent past, Kelan Martin (20.7 ppg. this year) , as the star forward has not shot well at all while going head to head by reigning BIG EAST Defensive Player of the Year Khyri Thomas. This I'm betting will be the key to a Creighton cover tonight. Note: I know Creighton lost last time out to Marquette, but that's a good omen for us here , as Creighton is 7-0 this season in the game immediately after a loss, outscoring their opposition 87.9 - 63.6 and outrebounding the opposition 40.1 - 32.9.McDermott is 17-6 ATS L/23 off a home loss as the coach of CREIGHTON. Creighton is averaging 85.4 points per game this season (sixth nationally), shooting 50.2 percent from the floor (10th nationally), and 37.9 percent from three-point range. CU also owns a 1.63 assist/turnover ratio (fourth nationally) to date, and a +1.9 rebound margin.Creighton's 14 games this season making 80 percent or better at the line ranks tied for fifth nationally, and tied with Butler for first among all major conference teams and gives them a must needed edge here on the road. CREIGHTON is 8-1 ATS L/9 on Tuesday nights over the last couple of seasons.CREIGHTON is 12-4 ATS L/16 after allowing 80 points or more .CREIGHTON is 21-8 ATS L/30 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread. BUTLER is 0-7 ATS l/7 versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 84+ points/game after 15+ games dating back to last season. Play on Creighton to cover |
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02-20-18 | Rhode Island -7 v. La Salle | 95-93 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Rhode Island ranks very high in power rankings polls so I have no problem what so ever recommending we lay the lumber here with them here on the road vs what is currently a far inferior hoops program LaSalle. Rhody has won two straight and seven of the last eight meetings, including an 74-62 victory on Jan. and has won four straight in this series at Gola Arena. Despite a loss at St. Bonaventure two games back, Rhode Island has remained firmly in both national polls for a fifth straight week, ranking No. 18 in both the Associated Press and College Basketball Coaches Poll. With this game coming late in the season, Rhode Island seeking a NCAA tourney bid will not over look their opponents tonight and instead come out here looking to make a statement. LASALLE is 0-6 ATS L/6 after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season. RHODE ISLAND is 10-3 ATS L/13 when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season.LASALLE is 1-11 ATS L/12 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game and is 2-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. CBB home team (LASALLE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 47-81 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rhode Island to cover |
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02-20-18 | Toledo +1.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 79-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm betting on Toledo to bounce back from Saturday's 99-71 defeat at Ball State when it travels to Ypsilanti, Mich to play Eagles.It was the Rockets only second loss in 13 games. Toledo swept the Eagles in last seasons series with 73-57 victory in the Glass City and a 60-56 win in Ypsilanti. Meanwhile, E.Mich is off a road win vs Central Michigan and have won 4 of their L/5 , and despite of a winning overall record are just 2-2 in their L/4 home games and I'm betting the 3rd loss in their L/5 is on the horizon. From a matchup perspective the Rockets D, has allowed opponents to shoot 45.2 % on the road and E.Michigan has shot, 48.2 at home. My won projections, suggest that E. Mich should make between 40% to 46% of their shots here tonight, which is a good omen, considering the Rockets are 8-0 ATS in road games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game. It seems that Toledo thrives against teams like this when pushed into a shootout scenario where both teams are projected to score 70 points or more , which the linesmakers are expecting . Look for Tre'Shaun Fletcher who ranks second in scoring at 19.7 ppg, and Jaelan Sanford who is seventh at 16.9 ppg to be the catalysts behind a Toledo victory. |
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02-20-18 | NC-Greensboro v. Wofford OVER 136.5 | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Wofford averages 82.1 ppg at home this season on offense, while Greensboro averages 72.4 ppg on the road.Note: UNCG overall is averaging 74.0 points per game while shooting 44.8 percent (737-of-1646) from the field and 36.3 percent (273-of-752) from 3-point land and according to my projections should be on pace for a similar offensive output. Greensboro plays the better defensive ball, but I'm betting their dragged into a faster affair than they like by a revenge minded Wofford team that plays their best basketball at home, which I'm betting results in a higher scoring game than the lines-makers anticipate. Wofford’s only loss at home in conference play came at the hands of ETSU by a 75-62 margin.In their L/meeting on Dec 30 of this season, Greensboro on their own home court dictated the pace and came away with a 71-67 win, but here on the road Wofford will up the speed of this game , which is more to their liking which will result in this tilt eclipsing the number. These teams have gone over the Total in 9 straight meetings here at Wofford. UNC-GREENSBORO is 8-1 OVER L/9 in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts after 15+ games dating back to last season, with a combined average of 156.8 ppg scored. UNC-GREENSBORO is 9-1 OVER in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more of their attempts after 15+ games over the last couple of seasons with a combined average score of 154.8 ppg clicking in on the board.WOFFORD is 6-0 OVER L/6 in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last few seasons with a combined average of 151.2 ppg scored. WOFFORD is 12-2 OVER L/14 in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last few seasons with a combined average of 158.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. WOFFORD is 10-1 OVER L/11 revenging a same season loss vs opponent with a combined average of 162.6 ppg getting scored. WOFFORD is 15-3 OVER L/18 after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games of 157.9 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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02-19-18 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin OVER 140 | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Minnesota enters this game struggling on defense, allowing 94,76,91,80,87 points respectively in their L/5 strips to the hardwood for an average of 85.6 ppg. The Gophers have struggled a bit of late on offense against some top tier competition, but their overall ability to put points up on the board (76.5ppg),has been their saving grace this season, and made them competitive for the most part in Big 10 play and according to my projections should score in the 65-69 point range here in this spot. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has done their best offensive work at home this season, averaging 72 ppg, and I'm betting on them upping their average offensive output here by 5 to 8 points vs a pylon D. With that said, according to my own prognostication system, this total should be easily eclipsed. Minnesota in 15 conference games this season, has seen a combined average score of 148.4 ppg go on the board. MINNESOTA is 8-0 OVER L/8 versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season with a combined average of 151.2 ppg going on the board. CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after trailing their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game are 40-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 82%conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 152.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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02-19-18 | Wild v. Islanders OVER 6 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
The NY Islanders are off back to back shutout wins by identical 3-0 scores. But in those games they allowed 50 and 45 shots for a whopping 95 shots on goal. The Isles D, has been atrocious for much of this season, and I'm now expecting they revert back to their average mean of allowing 3.6 gpg according to my projections. On offense the Isles are chalk full of talent, ie Barzal, Tavares, Lee, Bailey, Eberle, and should light up the lamp today vs a Minnesota side, that allowed an average 3.6 gpg on the road this season. The three most recent meetings in this series have seen a combined average score 9.66 gpg clicking in on the board. |
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02-18-18 | Stanford -5 v. California | 77-73 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
The Stanford Cardinal enter this game against California looking for a revenge for a 77-74 upset home loss to the Bears as 7 point chalk back Dec 30. The Cardinal looked asleep at the proverbial wheel in that tilt, but will be wide awake in this spot and ready to lay down some payback. The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS L/10 with revenge in this series, and look like a viable side to back vs a Bears side that has failed to cover 7 of 9 as home dogs this season and that has lost 11 of their L/12 overall SU. |
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02-18-18 | Duke v. Clemson +2 | 66-57 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
The Clemson Tigers are 12-0 SU at home this season, and own a No.4 ranking in the RPI and matchup very well against Coach K and company a a program that is No.10 in the same RPI rankings . Also my own numbers suggest the superior team is the Tigers and they get the nod here vs a Duke Blue Devils hoops program that have not faired all that well here at Clemson, covering just 7 of their L/19 visits.
Play on Clemson to cover |
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02-17-18 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -7 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Mississippi State has revenge on board for a 64-58 loss in Oxford earlier this season. Both the lines-makers and myself agree that Miss State should be hefty favs here in the rematch, which translates well into what I am predicting will be a lopsided win ....as the Bulldogs are 19-3 ATS as home favs in straight up revenge victories. The Bulldogs are also 20-4 SU L/24 at home in this series and have a big edge vs a Rebs side that has nothing to play for after suffering 6 straight losses. With said I'm recommending we back the very motivated home team. QUOTE: "They have excellent guards. It's a rivalry game, so everything goes out the window. Nothing that's happened before this game matters. It's all about this game." — MSU coach Ben Howland on Ole Miss. The Bulldogs have held nine of its 13 SEC foes below their scoring average and 21 of 26 overall.Mississippi State leads the SEC and is 45th nationally in points allowed at 66.8. MSU is also 26th in the nation in field goal defense at 40.6 percent. MISSISSIPPI ST is 16-6 ATS L/22 revenging a road loss vs opponent. OLE MISS is 0-7 ATS L/7 after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.OLE MISS is 0-6 ATS L/6 after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games this season. OLE MISS is 2-11 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. MISSISSIPPI ST is 7-0 ATS L/7 when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last few seasons. MISSISSIPPI ST is 14-3 ATS L/17 when playing against a team with a losing record . Play on Miss State to cover |
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02-17-18 | North Carolina v. Louisville -1 | 93-76 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
After a six-day break, Louisville now very well rested will return home to the KFC Yum! Center as the Cardinals face the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday.Louisville has held eight of its 13 ACC opponents to 40 percent or below shooting from the field and I'm betting their ability to hold down opponents behind a staunch D will be the catalyst for a victory for them here tonight vs the Tar Heels. N CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. N CAROLINA is 2-9 ATS L/11 in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games dating back to last season. LOUISVILLE is 9-1 ATS L/10 after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less .LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games after scoring 85 points or more. CBB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LOUISVILLE) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 45-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Louisville to cover |
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02-17-18 | Texas Tech v. Baylor +1 | 57-59 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
Baylor is currently playing their best hoops of the season, winning and cashing 4 straight and will be primed to pull off an upset vs a strong Texas Tech program. The key to Baylor’s success of late has come from the bench as they have out-scored the opposing bench 153-49 over the last 5 games. Note: BU is averaging 80.2 ppg over its last 6 Big 12 games after averaging 66.0 ppg in its first 7 Big 12 games. Baylor has been tied or leading in the final 2 minutes in 4 of its Big 12 losses, all vs. ranked teams and must be respected here on their own home floor . BU is 10-2 L/12 vs Tech at home in Waco . Baylor is 54-11 against in-state opponents since the start of the 2011-12 season We are also backing a Bears team that have revenge for a ugly loss vs the Raiders earlier this season by a 77-53 count. Note: Baylor has cashed 3 straight SU/ATS with revenge winning each time by DD and are 14-3 ATS L/17 with revenge in this series. Meanwhile Texas Tech has only covered 3 of their L/13 vs teams with revenge that they blasted by 20 or more points. Play on Baylor to cover |
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02-17-18 | Villanova v. Xavier UNDER 165.5 | 95-79 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Villanova easily dispatched Xavier in the first meeting this season, an 89-65 smash down at the Wells Fargo Center back on Jan. 10 and now I'm expecting a slower pace from Xavier as they try to mess with Novas flow. Meanwhile, Villanova in a mini slump after having lost 2 of their L/3 , will be concentrating on playing a complete game . The coaching staff wants the Cats to be more physical, which I'm betting they will be today and this will translate into a grinding war, that makes for a lower scoring game then the lines-makers expect. After Nova lost to Providence last time out, Villanovas Coach made this statement "We weren't physical enough to get open," Wright said. "So then we couldn't run the offense. We were forced to drive the ball and they were more physical than us in that area also." END QUOTE: With this game being so late in the season, and with playing solid D, a very important factor at this time of the season, I expect a total combined score that remains on the low side of the number. |
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02-17-18 | Auburn -6 v. South Carolina | 75-84 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm not always a big fan of playing road chalk, but some situations warrant a wager, and this is one of them. Auburn 23-3 on the season are showing they mean business, and with a big dance ticket on their agendas, and the finish line in sight , I doubt they will overlook any opponent. Especially a South Carolina Gamecocks team that steam rolled them by a 98-69 beat-down here last season in merciless fashion. Missouri was a strong team last season, but this campaign has seen them slip and are very susceptible to being pummelled in a payback scenario by the explosive visitors. It must be noted that S.Carolina is just 4-32-1 ATS in home losses as dogs. S CAROLINA is 1-10 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season. AUBURN is 15-4 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.AUBURN is 11-2 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season and 6-0 ATS L/6 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season. AUBURN is 9-0 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season.AUBURN is 8-0 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season. Play on Auburn to cover |
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02-17-18 | Indiana v. Iowa +2 | 84-82 | Push | 0 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Indiana enters Saturday's contest winners of three straight, while Iowa has lost four in a row. The Hawkeyes have, however, not lost five consecutive games this season and I'm betting that stays intact here today. .Iowa has won eight of the last 11 meetings in Iowa City, including last season's 96-90 overtime barn burner. The Hoosiers are also just 2-7 in true road games this season \nd not the same team they are as hosts. The Hawkeyes did lose to Indiana earlier this season on road, but will be primed to pull the upset here with revenge on board. Iowa is 15-4 ATS L/19 in this series, and 5-0-1 ATS L/6 with revenge. The Hawkeyes are also 18-7 ATS L/25 as home dogs, and get the nod here to cover. Play on Iowa to cover |
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02-17-18 | Syracuse +5 v. Miami-FL | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
Miami enters this game as weak home favs as they are just 1-5 ATS as hosts in conference play so far this season. The Canes are also still playing without key cog G Bruce Brown their second leading scorer and currently do not demand the respect they usually get when at full strength. Last season the Cuse were bumped from the ACC tourney by Miami Fl, and now with revenge at hand I'm betting we see the Orange at their very best as they also are looking for a possible big dance birth. MIAMI is 4-13 ATS L/19 as a home favorite or pick. MIAMI is 1-8 ATS L/9 in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games dating back to last season. MIAMI is 3-12 ATS L/15 versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games . Play on the Syracuse Orange to cover |
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02-16-18 | Illinois-Chicago -2.5 v. Green Bay | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
Illinois Chicago had a 7 game win streak halted last time out at home vs Cleveland State by 86-78 count. The loss came vs a team that was explosively red hot, as the Vikings scored 33 of 48 first-half points from beyond the arc, shooting 61 percent on 18 attempts. Despite of that the Flames made a ferocious comeback, but fell short in the final 5 min, as they looked exhausted. Now with time to rest and digest what happened I'm betting they have a bounce back effort here tonight vs a Green Bay side that has lost 10 of their L/12 and must be looked at as fade material. IL-CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS L/7 off a home loss against a conference rival . WI-GREEN BAY is 1-10 ATS L/11 home games on Friday nights. UIC toppled Green Bay in the first meeting this season, 84-73, at the UIC Pavilion on Jan. 10. The Flames shot a season-high 58.4 percent from the field in that victory. IL-CHICAGO is 7-1 ATS L/8 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) this season.IL-CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS at road when the line is +3 to -3 dating back to last season. CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (IL-CHICAGO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3.5 PPG differential.), after a combined score of 155 points or more 2 straight games are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Illinois Chicago to cover |
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02-16-18 | Northern Kentucky -1 v. Wright State | 67-69 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Northern Kentucky comes into this game against Wright State looking for revenge for a 84-81 loss at home as 10.5 point favs in the first meeting. This tilt is also has the added importance of being a battle for first-place in the Horizon League standings. NKU is riding a five-game winning streak, its third streak of the season of at least four games., and has won 27 of its last 35 games (.771) against League opponents. It must also be noted that N Kentucky faces a side that is just 2-8 ATS as a Horizon League home dog and despite of being a quality team, are 0-3 SU/ATS vs teams with a higher win % on the season, which the Norse have. Look for what my power rankings suggest is the top team in this conference to grab the cash here tonight and get their payback. Northern Kentucky is 17th in the nation in 2-point field goal percent (57.0) and is averaging 17.0 assists per game, a mark that ranks 22nd in the nation. It also only commits 12.2 turnovers an outing, which ranks 88th nationally. Combining those two marks results in an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.40, the 25th-best in the country. HC Brannen is 13-5 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game. N KENTUCKY is 8-2 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite this season. CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (N KENTUCKY) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent are 77-36 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors . Play on Northern Kentucky to cover |
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02-16-18 | Detroit +2.5 v. Youngstown State | 94-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Detroit Mercy has dropped two tough games so far on the four-game road swing, but will look to continue a great run it holds as the Titans are riding a 10-game winning streak over Youngstown State. Detroit Mercy has also have won eight of their last nine visits to the Beeghly Center. Detroit Mercy has converted regularly from the free throw line connecting on 75.0 percent, third in the HL and 62nd in the country. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 2-10 ATS l/12 after a win by 6 points or less over the last few seasons. CBB home team (YOUNGSTOWN ST) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an struggling defensive team (47.5% or more ), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 reb/game) are 55-106 ATS L/21seasons for a 66% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit Mercy to cover |
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02-15-18 | Hawaii +9 v. Cal-Irvine | 62-61 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
Hawaii enters this game against UC Irvine having lost 5 straight games. But the Rainbow Warriors have been very competitive in most games, with only one loss coming by more than 6 points. Prior to the unfortunate run Hawaii had won 4 straight, so this is a very under rated team according to my own power rankings. With Hawaii with revenge on board for a 72-58 home loss to Irvine back in November, I expect we will see the Warriors...... a side that has decidedly improved since that debacle to be viable underdogs in the rematch. I'm betting the key to us getting the cover will be the Bows ability to sink FTs , as they are converting 81% of their charity stripe attempts over the L/6 games. Anteaters are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Play on Hawaii to cover |
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02-15-18 | Oregon +5 v. USC | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
The last time Oregon faced USC they lost at home earlier this season by a 75-70 count. Now with revenge on board and the need to secure wins if they want a shot at the big dance this tilt becomes paramount for the young men from Eugene. With the Trojans off big games (losses) vs Arizona and Arizona State, I won't be surprised if the Trojans are in an emotional letdown spot here . Actually the Trojans have failed to cover 4 straight times after battling Arizona and are currently on a 3 game losing streak. It must also be noted that USC has only covered 1 time in their L/14 games as chalk of 12 points or less in this series vs the Ducks , with Oregon also amassing a solid 18-4-2 ATS mark as visitors when playing USC. The Ducks off a blowout 84-57 win vs Washington State now have momentum on their sides going into this tilt and deserve my backing as dogs. Note: OREGON is 11-1 ATS L/12 off a home win against a conference rival and is 9-1 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival. OREGON is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games dating back to last season and a perfect 9-0 ATS L/9 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games dating back to last season. CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (OREGON) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a home win by 10 points or more are 156-103 ATS L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Oregon to cover |
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02-15-18 | Nuggets v. Bucks OVER 212 | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
With this being the last game before both sides launch their mini vacations during the all star break, I expect both will feel energized and ready to run and gun tonight, as they also know an extended rest is on the way. Denver enters this game having won 5 of their L/6 behind an offense that is clicking on all cylinders, averaging more than 117.8 ppg during that stretch. The Bucks also rank 6th (110.6) in the league in offensive efficiency and 22nd ( 109.7) in defensive efficiency Meanwhile, Milwaukee despite of being inconsistent, are ranked 12th in the league in offensive effecnicy rating (108.9 ppg) and 16th in defensive efficiency ( 108.7 ) and in this type of matchup vs an explosive offense will have to speed up their pace, which in turn will have them go above their current ratings, which will translate in to a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect. DENVER is 38-21 OVER L/59 when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 223.7 ppg scored.DENVER is 22-8 OVER L/30 in road games after a combined score of 225 points with a combined average of score of 222 ppg scored. DENVER is 31-18 OVER L/49 in non-conference games with a combined average of 222.4 ppg scored.Malone is 40-19 OVER when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored. Over is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 vs. NBA Central.Over is 14-4 in Bucks last 18 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 33-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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02-15-18 | Nuggets +3 v. Bucks | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
The Milwaukee Bucks have been playing decent ball since Jason Kidd was fired, but I'm still not completely sold on them going forward. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets are also in top form and have won 5 of their L/6 overall via an explosive offense averaging more than 117.8 ppg during that stretch. The Nuggets according to my power rankings are playing their best hoops of the season and must be respected here as underdogs. Note: Denver is 15-2 ATS L/17 as an underdog in this series. From a SRS perspective Denver owns a +0.88 mark while Milwaukee clicks in at -0.18. ( SRS =Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average) With that said, we have value with taking points here. Milwaukee is just 33-67 ATS at home as chalk in non conference home tilts of late. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a home win, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 28-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Denver Nuggets to cover |
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02-15-18 | Jacksonville State +10 v. Murray State | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
JACKSONVILLE ST is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts.JACKSONVILLE ST is 8-0 ATS L/8 in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last few seasons. JACKSONVILLE ST is 8-0 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (JACKSONVILLE ST) - off an upset loss by 15 or more as a home favorite against opponent off a road win are 42-12 ATS L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (MURRAY ST) - off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite against opponent off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 30-6 ATS L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
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02-15-18 | Hurricanes v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
The Carolina Hurricanes uncharacteristically exploded for 7 goals last time out in a win vs the shocked looking LA Kings. It must be noted that the Canes have gone under in 7 of their L/8 games after scoring 5 goals more and are usually a less than explosive team especially in division games, where they score and average of 2.4 gpg, while allowing just 2.8 pgg. Prior to the above mentioned output the Canes, had gone under in 7 straight games, holding opponents to 2 gaols ore less. With NJ embarking on 4th game in 7 nights, I expect they won't have much in the tank to run and gun and instead rely on their ability to score in transition, which is not a good option according to my numbers. With that said, I'm betting on the visitors and their hosts playing a low scoring affair. Under is 4-0-2 in the last 6 meetings in New Jersey.Under is 9-1-4 in the last 14 meetings. CAROLINA is 9-1 UNDER after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored this season with a combined average of 4.1 gpg scored.NEW JERSEY is 6-0 UNDER L/6 in home games after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last few seasons, with a combined average of 4.4 gpg going on the board. CAROLINA is 8-1 UNDER L/9 against struggling defensive teams - allowing 2.85+ goals/game this season with a combined average of 4.6 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (CAROLINA) - after 3 straight wins by 2 goals or more against opponent after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games are 50-19 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (CAROLINA) - poor defensive team - allowing 2.85+ goals/game on the season, after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game are 52-27 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-14-18 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 225.5 | 117-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
The Warriors have gone 3-0 in a recent home stand in which they shot 55.3 percent from the field and 45.1 from beyond the arc while averaging 124 points ppg.
The Dubs now lead the NBA in scoring (115.8), field goal percentage (51.1), 3-point percentage (39.3), free throw percentage (80.9), assists per game (44.4) and blocks per game (7.95). Needless to say their offensive juggernaut, and have said, they want to finish off strong heading into the All star break which should see them running and gunning against the Portland Blazers here again tonight. How will the Blazers deal with what's coming their way. Here's a quote fro Blazers star D.Liiliard that tells me the game plan for this meeting. QUOTE: "You can play great defense and they're still going to make shots, they're that good. You have to be able to put points up. You have to score with them. You have to have some resistance, and you have to make them work for everything they get. You have to attack them back -- use your offense as defense." END QUOTE: With that said, I'm betting on a back forth offensive slugfest here this evening in a tilt that flys over the Total. PORTLAND is 16-4 OVER L/20 versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season during the last few seasons with a combined average score of 228 ppg getting scored.GOLDEN STATE is 11-0 OVER after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 35% or less over the last few seasons with a combined average of 233.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND/GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or more ), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 42+ games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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02-14-18 | Lakers +5 v. Pelicans | 117-139 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Despite losing 130-123 at Dallas on Saturday, the Lakers are playing some very competitive basketball of late , and have won 12 of their l/17 games and have upward momentum on their sides and are up trending in my power rankings. The Lakers newly acquired point guard Isaiah Thomas came off the bench Saturday in his Lakers' debut and scored 22 points and had six assists in 31 minutes and is a very nice addition to this young team. Meanwhile, New Orleans, are still adjusting to playing without DeMarcus Cousins, and must not be over estimated in their abilities despite of upsetting Detroit Pistons last time out (118-103). It must also be noted that NEW ORLEANS is 9-22 ATS L/31 off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog . Pelicans are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific and are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Road team is 30-14 ATS in the last 44 meetings LA LAKERS are 14-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.NEW ORLEANS is 27-42 ATS as a home favorite over the last few seasons. Play on the LA Lakers to cover |
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02-14-18 | Clippers v. Celtics -4.5 | 129-119 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
The Clippers have surprisingly won four of their last five games and are 4-2 since a trade sent Blake Griffin to the Detroit Pistons. Needless to say the Boston Celtics will not be over looking them despite of this Clippers team going into rebuild mode. Considering both teams rosters and current systems, the head to head matchup favors the home team by 7 points according to my own numbers giving us value on a basic 5 point home advantage line. Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic. BOSTON is 20-7 ATS L/27 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 31-2 SU for a 94% conversion rate with the average margin deficit clicking in at 10.6 ppg. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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02-14-18 | Pacers -4.5 v. Nets | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
The streaky Pacers look for another win before the all star break Wednesday night when they visit the struggling Brooklyn Nets The Pacers during a recent 19-game stretch (13-6 SU), are up trending in my power ranks after allowing 101.7 points and 31.2 percent 3-point shooting. Offensively, they are averaging 106.6 points and shooting 49.1 percent. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is in a downward swoon, and have lost 10 of their L/11. The average margin of defeat in the 10 losses games has been by a whopping 11.6. ppg and they are once again fde material here in this spot.
BROOKLYN is 3-13 ATS L/16 in home games after 6 or more consecutive losses . INDIANA is 23-11 ATS L/34 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days.Pacers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Pacers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings with the favorite going 5-1 ATS L/6 meetings. Indiana has won six straight from Brooklyn and 14 of the last 18 meetings. NBA team (BROOKLYN) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 19-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indiana to cover |
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02-14-18 | Villanova v. Providence +9.5 | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Villanova's invincibility has been questioned of late, as they recently showed their actually just humans with a loss to St.John;s. With that in mind we now have a Providence team that has revenge in mind for a 89-69 road loss they suffered to the Cats on Jan 13 . I'm recommending we back a motivated team getting points in what should be a packed house. Note: Nova's Phil Booth suffered a fractured right (shooting) hand late in that above mentioned contest and has not played since. Providence is 15-6 ATS L/21 at home as dogs. PROVIDENCE is 10-1 ATS L/11 revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 or more points. PROVIDENCE is 6-0 ATS L/6 in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points and 10-0 ATS L/10 with same season revenge form a loss more than 7 points. PROVIDENCE is 12-4 ATS L/16 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots.VILLANOVA is 1-9 ATS L/10 in road games after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers Play on Providence to cover |
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02-14-18 | Clemson +4.5 v. Florida State | 79-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Clemson is ranked for the seventh consecutive week in the AP Top 25 poll (No. 11). Clemson is also ranked in the USA Today Coaches Poll at No. 12 and must be respected here as underdogs vs a team they are motivated to take down after suffering 2 losses to Florida State last season.Clemson’s RPI checks in at fourth nationally, while their SOS sits 21st. Note: Clemson is 17-4 ATS L/21 with revenge in this series, and a perfect 9-0 ATS as a dog of 2 points or more. In the latest KenPom rankings, the Tigers are ranked Nos. 16, 13 and 31 in overall, adjusted defensive efficiency (94.6) and adjusted offensive efficiency (115.7). CLEMSON is 8-2 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. CLEMSON is 8-1 ATS L9 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season. FLORIDA ST is 26-43 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick . Play on Clemson to cover |
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02-14-18 | Dayton v. George Mason OVER 146.5 | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
The Flyers have scored 80-plus points in all three February games.Dayton's offense ranks third in the country in 2-point field-goal percentage (.595).In conference play, Dayton leads the A-10 in field goal percentage (.506) and assists (18.0). Meanwhile, George Mason recently shot 41.2 percent (7-17) from 3-point range. The Patriots are 17-of-42 (.402) from deep over the past two contests and primed to light up the scoreboard again via the trey,, which gives credence to what I'm betting will be a fairly high scoring game. Note: Mason gave up 82.0 points per game and allowed opponents to shoot 46.6 percent over the first 10 games of the A-10 schedule. GEORGE MASON is 11-2 OVER L/13 versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season after 15+games with a combined average of 152.2 ppg .DAYTON is 7-0 OVER L/7 in road games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or les turnovers/game after 15+ games with a combined average of 161 ppg scored. DAYTON is 10-0 OVER L/10 in February games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 156 ppg going on the scoreboard. DAYTON is 7-0 OVER after playing a road game this season with a combined average of 160. ppg scored. The two most recent meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 153 and 162 ppg scored. George Mason has gone OVER in 7 of their L/9, while Dayton has gone over in 4 straight games. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (DAYTON) - after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 58-25 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GEORGE MASON) - after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 38-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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02-14-18 | Iowa +12 v. Michigan | 59-74 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Iowa can light up the board with their offense very quickly which makes them viable underdogs of 10 points or more here in this spot. Iowa has scored 50 or more second-half points six times this season, including three of its last five games and are always back door cover opportunists making them a viable side to back on a DD underdog line. The Hawkeyes have won five of the last six meetings in this series. Michigan won this season's first meeting, 75-68, in Iowa City on Jan. 2, 2018. CBB Home favorites of 10 or more points (MICHIGAN) - after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 45-97 ATS L/21 seasons for go against conversion rate of 68% for bettors. CBB Road underdogs of 10 or more points (IOWA) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more ) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 28-8 ATS L/21 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Iowa to cover |
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02-14-18 | South Florida +13.5 v. UCF | 57-72 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
USF faces UCF for the second time this season The Knights handed the Bulls a heartbreaking 71-69 loss in the first half of the season series.USF led for 29 minutes on Jan. 20, but UCF came on strong late and just slid past the Bulls. From a matchup perspective USF actually matches up well vs their opponents, and I'm betting their ability to draw fouls, and get the charity stripe will help us cover this number. As a team, the Bulls are shooting 72.4 percent (331-for-457) from the free throw line on the season. UCF is 0-7 ATS struggling pressure defensive teams - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game . CBB Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (UCF) - after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers are 43-89 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on USF to cover |
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02-13-18 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 207 | 109-117 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Two banged up teams the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets go head to head tonight in the Mile High City. The Spurs after playing last night in Utah wont; have the legs to run and gun tonight, and with key offensive weapons Leonard and Aldridge sidelined don't have as much scoring punch as usual. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets , continue to play without Paul Milsap, and have a bevy of walking wounded that are playing at less than 100%, and welcome the all star break that is on the horizon. This above combination of circumstances I'm betting will result in a much lower combined score than the lines-makers expect. SAN ANTONIO is 15-7 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 200.6 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 17-6 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 198.2 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 21-7 UNDER when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season of 194.7 ppg scored and 13-2 UNDER in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5 this season with a combined average of 191.7 ppg going on the board. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 50-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-13-18 | Northwestern -3 v. Rutgers | 58-67 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
Rutgers enters this home game against Northwestern having lost 7 straight games, and are fade material in their current mode . Northwestern has won 4 of their L/6 , after a lackluster effort last time out in a loss to Maryland where they shot just 33%. The Wildcats have actually been good bets of late and resilient after a loss as they are 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses. Northwestern won all three meetings with Rutgers a year ago, and are a perfect 5-0 against Rutgers since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten and get the nod again this Tuesday night. RUTGERS is 19-34 ATS L/53 against conference opponents. CBB Road teams as an favorite or pick (NORTHWESTERN) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team, on Tuesday nights are 69-33 ATS L/21 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Northwestern to cover |
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02-13-18 | Cavs v. Thunder -1 | 120-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Cleveland has won three consecutive games, scoring 121 or more points in each and now the pundits are all piling back on to the bandwagon. I'm a believer in the Cavaliers ability to continue their upward momentum, as well over the long haul, but I'm betting this is a bad spot for them. Meanwhile, Oklahoma city is expected to have both Russell Westrook and Carmelo Anthony back in the lineup tonight, after both sat two games with a ankle injury. Both these top tier players presence , and the positive energy involved with taking on a championship contender will have the Thunder ready to perform in what is a very tough venue for visitors to play in . Oklahoma City has won the L/2 meetings in this series home and away. CLEVELAND is 8-22 ATS L/30 revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points. CLEVELAND is 16-34 ATS L/50 versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. CLEVELAND is 4-18 ATS L/22 in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS L/18 in non-conference games this season. NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are just 13-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors. Play on Oklahoma City to cover |
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02-13-18 | Cavs v. Thunder UNDER 222 | 120-112 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
The last time these teams played they took part in wild 148-124 shootout, that saw the Thunder shoot 58%+ FG, and the Cavs 51%.. However, it seems both coaches were not happy with their own defenses, especially the Cavs Lue, and now I expect he makes sure his team is ready to be more physical, and more defensively responsible in transition, which I'm betting makes this a slower game than many expect. CLEVELAND in their L/21 in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more have seen a combined average score of 217.2 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-8 L/29 UNDER against Central division opponents with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-8 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 220. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 217.6 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road win are 42-14 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 755 conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.7 ppg. Play UNDER |
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02-13-18 | Rockets v. Wolves UNDER 222.5 | 126-108 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
We all now how explosive Houston's offense is, but many do not notice that they are defensively efficient , as they rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. ie Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions. Recently the Rockets have been tough on opposing offenses holding 3 of their L/6 opponents to 97 points or less. Meanwhile, Minnesota despite of taking part in a lot of higher scoring affairs this season, remarkably owns the 23rd ranked pace, and tonight, I expect they will be even more deliberate in their approach, vs a powerful offense. With that said, and according to both teams expected style of play, and road vs home scenarios I'm betting on a total score that does not eclipse this total. Rockets are 5-0-1 UNDER last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 9-1 in Rockets last 10 vs. Western Conference.Under is 10-3-1 in Rockets last 14 road games.Under is 34-15-2 in Rockets last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-2 in Timberwolves last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season and 7-0 on the road with a combined average score of the away games clicking in at 206.2 ppg. HC' DAntoni is 25-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 with a combined average score of 213.9 ppg on the board. HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games with a combined average of 215.3 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 32-11 UNDER L/43 versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or over ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-13-18 | Maryland v. Nebraska -3 | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Maryland enters this tilt having lost 8 of their 11 road games this season, and have lost 7 of their L/11 overall, while their hosts Nebraska have won 13 of their 14 home tilts and overall are on a 5 game win streak, and looking stronger as each games passes. The one Husker home loss came to Kansas by just 1 point. Coach Mark Turgeon's Terps team has been hit by injuries, losing a pair of starters (Justin Jackson and Ivan Bender) to season-ending injuries and are at a disadvantage. This Cornhuskers team is flying under the radar with Nebraska's defense has been the key to their Big Ten success. The Huskers are third in field goal defense (.403) and held 11 of their last 13 opponents under 45 percent. Since Jan. 1, the Huskers are holding opponents to .404 shooting and must be respected here as short home chalk. Nebraska's 1.25-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio is on track to be one of the best in school history. NEBRASKA is 12-2 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more of their shots this season and have covered 7 straight under the same perimeters. NEBRASKA is 10-1 ATS L/11 versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season.NEBRASKA is 9-1 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. NEBRASKA is 9-0 ATS L/9 off a win against a conference rival this season. Play on Nebraska to cover |
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02-13-18 | Western Michigan -2 v. Bowling Green | 81-83 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Western Michigan enters this road tilt vs Bowling Green playing some of their best basketball of the season, winning 4 of their L/5 games. The Broncos have been a second half team this season outscoring opponents, 1037-970 the final 20 minutes of play. WMU has scored at least 50 points in the second half four times this season and get stronger as games progress thanks to their top tier conditioning program. With that said, I'm betting as this game progresses the Broncos run over a Bowling Green team off an exhausting come from behind OT win last time out vs E.Michigan. Lay the short lumber with the road team. Since 2012, WMU is 29-13 in the month of February which is the second best record amongst NCAA Division I schools in the state of Michigan. W MICHIGAN is 15-6 ATS L/21 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).W MICHIGAN is 24-9 ATS L/33 when playing only their 2nd game in a week and is 11-3 L/14 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite . CBB underdog (BOWLING GREEN) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 6-33 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Western Michigan to cover |
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02-12-18 | Suns +15.5 v. Warriors | 83-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
This selection is based on something I refer to as the fearless factor. Golden State is expected by all who watch the NBA to step all over the Phoenix Suns tonight in their matchup at Oakland. But the Suns with nothing to lose , completely out of a play off spot, and in deep vs the leagues defending champion, will play this game loosely and with confidence. Meanwhile, the Dubs despite of saying they want to finish this current string of games strongly before the all star break, will have problems being motivated here tonight, and have a history of playing down to lower tier teams levels. On the season Golden State is just 11-15 ATS at home, and overall have failed to cover 5 of 8 division games this season and 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
The Suns 7-2 ATS their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. It must also be noted that since the Suns acquired Elfrid Payton from Orlando at the trade deadline they should be playing at a much faster pace which was evident in Saturday's 123-113 home loss to Denver, a game in which the Suns posted season highs in field goal percentage (54.8) and points in the paint (66). I'm projecting their numbers will be better than expected here again tonight, which will result in the Suns getting the cover. GOLDEN STATE is 1-9 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins this season.PHOENIX is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games off a home loss by 10 points or more. NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent offensive team (102 PPG or more ) against a struggling defensive team (102 PPG or more ) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more. are 23-56 L/21 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Phoenix Suns to cover |
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02-12-18 | Blackhawks -120 v. Coyotes | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
The three time Stanley Cup Champion Blackhawks need wins if they hope for a play off birth this season. Currently on a 5 game losing streak, the Hawks enter this game against lower tier team the Arizona Coyotes in desperation mode andbe prepared to leaving everything on the ice tonight . Here a quote of one of the Hawks Dmen: "It's frustrating," Toews said. "(But) it's simple. we know what we've got to do. It's right there in front of us. ... We know we've got a lot of talent and a lot of ability here. We've got to get back to playing simple hockey. At the end of the day, we're still hanging on to that belief in the room (that they can make the playoffs). We need to keep working and not try to do too much." END QUOTE. With that said, and considering their current mind set it will be an easy decision to back the Blackhawks tonight. Chicago is 8-0 L/8 in this series and 4-0 L/4 here in Arizona. CHICAGO is 43-15 ATS against poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game. ARIZONA is 12-36 ATS against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal this season. ARIZONA is 4-16 ATS in a home game where the total is 5.5 this season. ARIZONA is 4-21 ATS revenging 2 consecutive losses to opponent as a favorite this season. ARIZONA is 0-9 ATS revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent by 2 goals or more this season. Play on Chicago to win on the moneyline |
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02-12-18 | Baylor +2.5 v. Texas | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Baylor enters this tilt vs Texas as a very underrated Big 12 hoops program. Baylor 's offense is averaging 81.4 ppg over its last 5 Big 12 games after averaging 66.0 ppg in its first 7 Big 12 games. Despite of a lackluster road record the Bears , have been on the wrong side of the lucky charm pedestal, as 6 of their 7 losses have come to ranked teams, including 3 by one possession. Also from a head to head matchup perspective Baylor’s bench has out-scored the opponents’ bench 121-37 over the last 4 games, and the Bears had a 23-9 advantage over Texas in bench scoring when the teams met in Waco on Jan. 15 and once again look like solid dogs vs an opponent they matchup well against. Baylor has recorded more points in the paint than its opponent in 21 straight and 24 of 25 games this season. The Bears are averaging 37.8 points in the paint per game against opponents’ 26.9 paint ppg and I'm betting their ability to control the interior game will be the difference maker here again.
Play on Baylor to cover |
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02-12-18 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 196.5 | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
San Antonio is banged up with some key injuries but still have enough talent to put some points on the board here and keep track with the red hot Utah Jazz a team that is averaging 117.6 ppg in offense over the L/7 games during their 9 game win streak. Considering the Jazz played last night I doubt they will be prepared to play a lot of defense here and I'm anticipating a much more wide open game because of this. With that said, I'm recommending we take an over stance in this spot. UTAH is 21-7 OVER L/28 against Southwest division opponents with a combined average of 204.5 ppg on the scoreboard. SAN ANTONIO is 13-4 OVER L/19 with a combined average of 200.1 ppg scored in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points. NBA teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (UTAH) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, playing on back-to-back days are 37-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 201 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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02-12-18 | Knicks +11.5 v. 76ers | 92-108 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
The Knicks, who lost All-Star center/forward Kristaps Porzingis for the season to a torn left ACL last week are now looked upon as a downtrodden group that does not deserve any respect. While that maybe partially true, thanks to their overall horrid W/L record, this team still has some fight left in them as players look to solidify their standing on the team and future paydays. They always say pro sports is all about the money, and it is, so the Knicks wont stop playing hard, as very few of them on this team have any guarantees in this league going forward. The Knicks are not just going to lye down and take a nap, but instead I expect will fight even harder. Tonight, I'm betting their being under rated vs a 76ers side that despite of being a lot better than in previous seasons, is still a side that is young, with consistency still being a problem with these talented kids. . So needless to say Its a hard stretch for me to suddenly see them listed as 12 plus point favs, against anyone in the NBA even here at home .I know the Knicks played last night and the Sixer's and their fans have recently fed off the energy associated with the Eagles winning the Super Bowl, but that's now fading and when you put out that much emotional energy its sometimes hard to keep playing at a high level, especially against a beat up team like the Knicks that they are probably overlooking. With that said, I'll take a contrarian stance here and take the dogs to cover on a slightly bloated line. 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The 5 meetings in this series have seen 3 games decided by 1 point , one game by 3 , and their most recent game by 7 points. PHILADELPHIA is 4-18 ATS L/22 in home games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots .NEW YORK is 21-10 ATS L/31 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread.
Play on the NY Knicks to cover |
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02-12-18 | Colgate +11.5 v. Bucknell | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The top two teams in the Patriot League standings square off a what I'm betting will be a much closer game than the lines-makers expect. The Raiders have won six of their last seven games and hold down second place in the league standings with a 9-4 record. Defending champ Bucknell sits atop the standings at 11-2. I know Bucknell took the the season's first meeting 63-51 in Hamilton on Jan. 15. , mostly because Colgate couldn't get it going offensively as the Raiders finished the game shooting a season-low 27.1 percent from the field, but have converted more than 46% of their shots from the field this season. With that said, I'll write that one off as an anomaly and expect closer to their season average this time around and to be very competitive. Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. CBB Underdogs of 10 or more points (COLGATE) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 34-11 ATS L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Colgate to cover |
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02-11-18 | Washington State +15 v. Oregon | 57-84 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
WSU enters this game against Oregon ranked fifth in the nation and leads the Pac-12 with 11.3 made 3-pointers per game.The Cougars have made 12 or more 3's in 14 of their 23 games this season making them a viable dog because of the ability to rack up quickly and open the way for possible back door covers. The Cougars also rank fourth in the Pac-12 and 62nd in the country with a .380 3-point field goal percentage and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this number. Note: WSU has trailed at halftime in 14 of its games this season, as well as its exhibition game, and was tied at the half once, coming back from five of them for victories. Washington State is a different team in the second half compared to the first averaging 40.6 points per game this season in the second half, compared to just 32.7 in the first. Add to that, WSU is shooting .477 (322-675) from the field and .424 (273-663) from 3-point range in the second half, compared to .412 (265-638) from the field and .331 (112-338) from 3-point in the first half. With that said, this is the kind of DD underdog, that I can sink my proverbial teeth into because of their tireless conditioning. OREGON is 2-8 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season CBB Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (WASHINGTON ST) - after allowing 75 points or more 5 straight games, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 40-10 ATS L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (WASHINGTON ST) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or more) against an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) after 15+ games, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher are 28-7 L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington State to cover |
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02-11-18 | Mavs +13.5 v. Rockets | 97-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Houston enters this game against visiting Dallas having won its seventh straight game with a 130-104 blowout of the Denver Nuggets on Friday. But its interesting to note the Rockets are just 2-11 ATS L/13 in home games after a blowout win by 20 points or more. The Rockets also have a tendency of playing down to their opponents, and are just 0-7 ATS in home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season.HOUSTON is also 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points this season and are slightly over valued considering how they seem to do just enough to get victories vs teams likes this as they save their energy for bigger fish. Meanwhile, Dallas despite of having a down season, are still capable of being competitive despite of playing last night ( beat LAL 130-123) and are my recommendation getting points in this spot Note:. Mavericks have covered 4 of their L/5 in back to backs, and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Rockets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. DALLAS is 14-6 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a loss by 10 points or more are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Dallas to cover |
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02-11-18 | Kings +13 v. Wolves | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
The Sacramento Kings are a young team, but they have a great deal of energy and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover this DD number as road dogs here in Minnesota tonight. The Kings have recently pulled off upsets on the road against the Heat and Pelicans and have a never say die attitude. Meanwhile, MINNESOTA is just 7-17 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season dating back to their last campaign and 12-23 ATS when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SACRAMENTO) - poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game, in February games are 25-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Sacramento Kings to cover |
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02-11-18 | Flames v. Islanders +111 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
The offensively explosive NY Islanders behind up and coming super star Mathew Barzal made a three-goal deficit evaporate last time out by scoring four goals during a five-minute power play late in the third period before edging the visiting Detroit Red Wings 7-6 in overtime. I look for the Isles to now use the momentum of that victory to come out here and get themselves another win in this spot vs the visiting Calgary Flames. NYI Goalie Halak is 8-5-1 in 14 career appearances against the Flames and he and his team get my support here in this start. NY ISLANDERS are 8-0 ATS after allowing 3 goals or more 5 straight games this season. CALGARY is 3-10 ATS after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game this season which happened last time out. NY ISLANDERS are 6-1 ATS against good starting goalies - (saving 91.5% or more of shots against) in the 2nd half of the season dating back to last season. Play on the NY Islanders to win on the moneyline |
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02-11-18 | Cincinnati v. SMU UNDER 128 | 76-51 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
The SMU Mustangs enter this key game at home missing junior guard Shake Milton (hand injury), who is averaging 18.0 points and was named conference preseason player of the year by the AAC's coaches. Facing the stifling D of the Cincinnati Bearcats without him will be extremely difficult, and their offensive flow will be effected and mute the Mustangs ability to score consistently. Even if Milton plays he won't be 100% and less effective than usual. No matter what the case is , I also expect this to be a very physical game, which will also effect the combined score of this tilt to low side of the Total. Note: SMU is also down to only seven available scholarship players after junior guard Jarrey Foster (knee) and freshman forward Everett Ray (foot) were lost for the season to injuries. CINCINNATI is 10-2 UNDER L/12 in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season of 125.2 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 8-1 UNDER L/9 in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games with a combined average of 117.8 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 15-4 UNDER L/19 versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game are with a combined average of 122 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 7-0 UNDER L/7 as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points with a combined average of 110.6 ppg going on the board. CBB All teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (CINCINNATI) - off 3 straight wins against conference rivals, a top-level team (80% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 81-34 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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02-11-18 | UCF v. Memphis -3 | 68-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
According to my power rankings and head to head matchup analysis Memphis should be 5 point favs here at home in this battle vs UCF, thus we have value taking them here to cover. UCF is just 5-6 SU on the road this season while Memphis plays their best games at home going 12-3 SU this season. MEMPHIS is 9-0 ATS L/9 off 2 straight losses against conference rivals . MEMPHIS is 10-1 ATS L/11 off a home loss.Knights are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. American Athletic Conference.Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Memphis have owned this series at going 11-0 SU. CBB teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (UCF) - after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half, with just two starters returning from last season are 23-55 L/5 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Memphis to cover |
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02-10-18 | Gonzaga +2.5 v. St. Mary's | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
St.Marys exerts so much energy each and every time they play a game, leaving everything on the floor as is evident by their winning scores and if you tune in sometime and watch them play. Because of this they are some times left exhausted when on short rest. The Gaels just played on Thursday night in a DD road win vs Loyola Marymount, and now will be on tired legs at the worst possible time as they face a Gonzaga side that is 5-1 ATS L/6 vs .900 or better opposition. St.Marys is just 0-8 ATS with 1 days rest and could easily get upset tonight by a Bulldogs program, that has revenge on board for a 74-71 loss they suffered to the Gaels earlier this season. GONZAGA is 11-2 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite and is 10-1 ATS in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more. ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games on Saturday games .ST MARYS-CA is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games off a road win by 10 points or more CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (GONZAGA) - off a road win by 10 points or more against opponent off a road blowout win by 20 points or more are 75-32 ATS L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Gonzaga to cover |
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02-10-18 | Spurs +11 v. Warriors | 105-122 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
I know that the San Antonio Spurs are a little banged up with key cog Leonard out of the lineup , however, I'm betting their still viable underdogs here on a line that according to my own projections is a little bloated, thanks to the defending champion Golden State Warriors being a public team. The Warriors are just 21-31-2 ATS this season, and have continually failed to produce covers for their backers, thanks to the exaggerated lines attached to their tilts. I know they clobbered the Spurs earlier this season on the road by a 112-92 mark, but lately the champs have looked a little tired and maybe just floating into the all star break as they look preserve energy for the stretch run. Meanwhile, Popovich and company are a group looking for revenge here, and probably feel a little disrespected by being pegged DD dogs. ( By the way despite of what NBA players and coaches say they do take the occasional peak a vegas lines) SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 ATS L/11 in road games after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots . Golden State is 4-16 ATS facing teams with same season revenge for a 20 point or more loss. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - after one or more consecutive overs, a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a defense allowing (102 PPG or more ) are 29-8 ATS L5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NBA Underdogs of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent against opponent after a cover as a double digit favorite are 41-16 L/5 seasons, for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the San Antonio Spurs to cover |
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02-10-18 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State +1.5 | 66-47 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
Texas Tech is riding high at the moment, but I'm betting they get side tracked here, by a revenge minded Kansas State side that has revenge on board for a 74-58 beat down at Lubbock earlier this season. The Raiders have a great record on the season ( 20-4 , 8-3) but their only 3-3 in true road games, and have lost their L/8 trips here to play the Wildcats. The Cats are also 5-1 ATS at home when seeking revenge in this series and are viable dogs in this spot . Play on Kansas State to cover |
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02-10-18 | Bucks v. Magic +5.5 | 111-104 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
The Orlando Magic are playing some very good basketball at the moment and enter this game against the Milwaukee Bucks with three straight wins. What is even more important as far as we are concerned is the Magic's ability to be very competitive as they have covered 13 of their L/15 overall. It took some time but this team is jelling behind a patient coaching staff, and management that has not been hard on this young group. The Magic are playing well with the duo D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack as their primary point guards after Elfrid Payton was traded to Phoenix at the deadline. With Augustin as a starter the Magic have flourished going 6-2 SU with him in the starting lineup. During a current 6-5 11 game run the Magic are averaging 107.6 points on 48 percent shooting while allowing 105.4 points and dangerous opponents vs a tired Milwaukee team that looked exhausted last night in a physical loss to the Heat (91-85), and will have very little left in the tank in this spot. 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. MILWAUKEE is 9-19 ATS L/28 against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.Magic are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Central.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.Bucks are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Orlando and 1-4 ATS L/5 meetings overall. Play on Orlando to cover |
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02-10-18 | Virginia Tech +12 v. Virginia | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
Virginia beat up on VTech in their first meeting this season 78-52, and now Virgina Tech will be out to get some payback and be competitive vs their rivals. The Hokies are 7-0 ATS in this series with same season revenge, and the Cavaliers are just 0-5 L/5 ATS overall vs the Hokies when they have revenge . The Cavs may also be ripe for the picking after starting out their last game looking very tired, and had to mount a ferocious comeback to get a win vs Florida State that may have them in a emotional deflated situation at the worst possible time. VIRGINIA TECH is 6-0 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last few seasons. VIRGINIA TECH is 30-17 ATS L/47 as an underdog over the last few seasons. Play on Virginia Tech to cover |
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02-10-18 | Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -8 | 68-70 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
UT Arlington has revenge on board for a ugly 83-62 loss to Texas State in the Sun Belt Tournament last season, and will now be out to hand out some payback here this afternoon vs a side in a slump after suffering 3 straight losses. Series history is on the Mavericks side as they have won 9 of the L/10 meetings in this series covering 8 of them. Overall Texas State also has a ugly history in losses to avenging foes going just 1-16 ATS and are fade material here vs a revenge minded side playing in front of their own fans. TX-ARLINGTON is 8-0 ATS after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games, which has just happened in back to back wins. Play on Texas Arlington to cover |
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02-10-18 | Purdue +3.5 v. Michigan State | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
Purdue got caught looking ahead in peekaboo fashion to this game with Michigan State, and got taken out by Ohio State 64-63 in their last trip to the hardwood. Now the Big bad Boilermakers have an even more focused outlook on this game, and I'm betting they come up big here vs the Spartans. Wednesday’s loss to Ohio State was Purdue’s first in Big Ten play and dropped the Boilermakers into a first-place tie in the league standings at 12-1 with the Buckeyes. Michigan State is one game back at 11-2, in what has become the best three-team race in America. Purdue has not lost two straight league games since 2014-15 season. Purdue is among just 3 teams that are unbeaten in “true” road games this year (Purdue, Saint Mary’s, Ohio State). The Boilermakers 8 Consecutive road wins dating to last year, the second-longest streak in the country. If they lose today it won't come easily and I'm betting the worst case scenario is a one possession loss which makes getting 3 to 3.5 points golden in my opinion. PURDUE is 7-0 ATS L/7 versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season this season.PURDUE is 16-4 ATS L/20 versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game .MICHIGAN ST is 1-7 ATS L/8 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games this season. CBB - Road teams as an underdog or pick (PURDUE) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 132-75 ATS L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Purdue to cover |
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02-10-18 | Eastern Michigan -1 v. Bowling Green | 63-70 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
From a matchup perspective and considering both sides current form and a system vs system analysis Eastern Michigan is the superior side despite of losing the first meeting of the season 75-71. There was some unfortunate turnovers and missed FTs that put Eastern Michigan in the loss column in that meeting, but revenge and payback is now at hand. The two most recent meetings have seen the road team win, I'm betting on a rinse and repeat situation BOWLING GREEN is 1-8 ATS L/9 in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less.BOWLING GREEN is 2-12 ATS L/14 versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games dating back a few seasons. CBB underdog (BOWLING GREEN) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 5-33 ATS L/21 seasons for go against 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Eastern Michigan to cover |
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02-10-18 | Kansas -1.5 v. Baylor | 64-80 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Kansas ranks sixth nationally in the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) and is second in strength of schedule (through games as of Feb. 7) and must be respected here on the road as short chalk. The linesmakers are expecting a close game here today, but it must be noted that Nine of Kansas' 11 conference games this season have been decided by seven points or less with the Jayhawks going 7-2 SU in those tilts. Going back to last season, Kansas has played 20 Big 12 contests that were decided by seven points or less, with Kansas going 17-3 in those outcomes. Needless to say the Jayahwks know how to win close games and get the nod again vs Baylor in this spot. KANSAS is 8-1 ATS L/9 in road games in February games. KANSAS is 9-1 ATS L/10 in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games. KANSAS is 13-2 ATS L/15 in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last couple of seasons.KANSAS is 15-4 ATS L/19 in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season. BAYLOR is 0-7 ATS L/7 in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts.BAYLOR is 0-6 ATS L/6 in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots.BAYLOR is 1-9 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less after 15+ games over the last few seasons. Baylor has won 6 straight meetings in this series overall and 2 straight as visitors. Play on Kansas to cover |
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02-10-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College OVER 144.5 | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
My projections make this total closer to 149, and thus I am recommending a OVER wager here. Boton College has really upped their offensive output of late pouring down 80 points or more in 3 straight games and are averaging 81+ ppg at home this season, and despite of Miami Fl have a viable D, they will be hard pressed to hold BC to under 75 points here which bodes well for this score eclipsing the number. Note: The Canes have scored 80 or more points in back to back games, and can run and gun with the best of teams in this conference if need be, something I'm betting they will need to today to keep up here. MIAMI is 6-0 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season with a combined average of 161.5 ppg scored.MIAMI is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games this season with a combined average of 162.4 ppg scored. BOSTON COLLEGE is 15-4 OVER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games with a combined average of 157.9 ppg going on the board. BOSTON COLLEGE is 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or better with a combined average of 152.7 ppg scored. BOSTON COLLEGE is 14-2 OVER L/16 as a home underdog or pick with a combined average of 155.7 ppg going on the board. BOSTON COLLEGE is 18-4 OVER in all home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 151.8 ppg scored. CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MIAMI) - an good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after a combined score of 165 points or more are 66-27 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 151.7 ppg scored. CBB Home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 68-35 OVER L/21 seasons for a 66% conversion rate with a combined average of 149.7 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (BOSTON COLLEGE) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG), after a combined score of 175 points or more are 31-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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02-10-18 | Fordham +8.5 v. Duquesne | 80-57 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Duquesne slapped Fordham around in their first meeting of the season, as visitors and now payback is at hand. It must be noted that the road team has won the last four meetings , and I'm betting on the visitor covering again, in a game that features two teams with sub par records. Fordham however, has shown some life of late posting 2 wins in their L/3 games whle Duquesne has lost 4 of their L/5 overall. DUQUESNE is 13-28 ATS L/41 in home games versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots after 15+ games and have a recent negative history of late in February games losing 12 of their L/13 overall SU. Fordham to cover |
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02-09-18 | Hornets v. Jazz -5 | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The Utah Jazz are playing some very good basketball at the moment, having won 7 straight and despite of making a couple of trades at the deadline, are still looking like a viable side to back in this spot vs visiting Charlotte. Yesterday, the Jazz dumped one of their top scoring guards Hood, for an equally gifted Jae Crowder from Cleveland, a two way player who fits in perfectly into their hard nosed defensive system. I'm expecting the Jazz not to skip a beat. Meanwhile, Charlotte, has lost two straight, and are off a exhausting OT tilt vs Portland last night, and now going in to the thin air of Salt Lake City should have problems competing as this game progresses, making them fade material in this spot. UTAH is 10-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.CHARLOTTE is 6-16 ATS (as an underdog this season.UTAH is 13-5 ATS L/18 versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. NBA Home teams (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, on Friday nights are 36-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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02-09-18 | Penguins v. Stars -105 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
The Penguins enter this road game against the Dallas Stars having struggled away from home this season, as is evident by a 7-15 record in their last 22 road games. Meanwhile, the Stars are a bankroll expanding 19-8 in their last 27 home games. The defending champion Penguins look to once again be at a disadvantage as visitors vs a team that is molding into top form of late as the Stars have won 3 straight and have outscored their last four opponents by a 16-5 mark. Note: Stars expected starting goalie Lehtonen has won his last four starts between the pipes, allowing just 5 goals during that run, and is 10-5-3 with a solid .915 save percentage in 18 career games vs the Pens.. Penguins are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. Central.Stars are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. Metropolitan.Penguins are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Dallas.The Stars have won five of the last six meetings with the Penguins. PITTSBURGH is 2-10 ATS in road games against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% or better of shots against this season. DALLAS is 12-2 ATS L/14 in home games against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opposition. Play on Dallas to win on the moneyline |
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02-09-18 | Bucks v. Heat -1.5 | 85-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
As this season has progressed I have gained a lot of respect for the Miami Heat, and their work ethic behind key cog Hassan Whiteside. With newly acquired Dwayne Wade coming home to finish his career after getting traded yesterday, and some desperation after a 5 game losing streak, I'm expecting a little extra jump in the legs of this Heat team, and for and from them to come out of this with a victory vs the Giannis "Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo and company. Note: Milwaukee is short handed .. G Delavedova and G Malcolm Brogdon (torn left quad) are out with injuries. MIAMI is 15-4 ATS L/19 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season dating back to the last campaign.Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record MIAMI is 17-8 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game this season.Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central.Bucks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southeast.Bucks are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 78-21 SU L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 57-99 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 61% for bettors on the blind. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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02-09-18 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Rockets | 104-130 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Houston has been in top form almost all season, and despite of a current 6 game win streak enter this game a little banged up with starting forward Ryan Anderson (ankle) and reserve guard Eric Gordon (back) on the bench along with key starter Ariza and will be short handed here tonight. Meanwhile, the Nuggets, winners of three straight and six of eight, are also currently in good form, and out to looking to avenge a loss to Houston earlier this season. Considering the Rockets situation and heavy schedule of late, I'm making a contrarian move here and backing Denver to cover the number in a spot play.
Play on Denver to cover |
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02-09-18 | Pelicans v. 76ers -4.5 | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
The Sixers enter this game off a commanding win vs the Washington Wizards 115-102 on Tuesday, their second victory in their last three games and will primed to get another win here tonight on their own home floor vs a New Orleans Pelicans team that have gone 1-4 since All-Star center/forward DeMarcus Cousins went down for the season with a acchilies injury. Philly is a really energized city at the moment after the Eagles snashtched the Super Bowl , and I'm betting that flow translates on to the hardwood tonight for the Sixers. Add to that the Sixers also have revenge on board for a road loss to the Pelicans back on Dec 10, and you have a postive situation to bet into tonight with the home side.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-7 ATS L/22 in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHILADELPHIA) - good rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game, in February are 15-106 L/21 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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02-09-18 | Princeton v. Harvard -1.5 | 51-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Harvard has revenge on board for 3 straight losses to Princeton last season and will now be primed for payback. With the Crimson currently rounding into top form and playing their best hoops of the season, (5-1 L/6) it will be an easy decision to lay the short lumber and take them here at home in this spot. Note: The Crimson has come alive from beyond the 3-point line, making 38 triples over the last three games while shooting 48.7 percent making them dangerous in their current form. Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.Crimson are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Crimson are 17-6-2 ATS in their last 25 vs. Ivy League.Harvard was a stellar 6-1 at home in Ivy play last season, and outscored its opponents over the 14-game stretch by nearly eight points per game. HARVARD is 11-2 ATS L/13 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or better of their attempts . PRINCETON is 0-6 ATS L/6 as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick. Play on Harvard to cover |
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02-08-18 | Santa Clara +16.5 v. BYU | 58-80 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
BYU is off an emotional loss to Gonzaga last time out, in a hard fought tilt that saw them lose for the 3rd time in 4 outings, and will now enter this game in a let down situation and be susceptible to a down effort vs a opponent that they will look at as inferior. BYU clobbered San Clara 80-54 earlier this season on Jan 13th and now the visitor will be playing with revenge and very focused on giving out a better effort in the rematch. With that said, lets take the points.
Santa Clara and BYU are sixth and seventh, respectively, in 3-pointers per game. The Broncos average 8.0 per game and the Cougars 6.8. SANTA CLARA is 8-0 ATS L/8 off 2 straight losses against conference rivals over the last few seasons. SANTA CLARA is 7-0 ATS L/7 in road games after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game.SANTA CLARA is 20-6 ATS L/26 in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.SANTA CLARA is 11-2 ATS in road games off a loss against a conference rival .BYU is 6-16 ATS L/22 after a game where they covered the spread. CBB Road teams as an underdog or pick (SANTA CLARA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals are 94-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Santa Clara to cover |
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02-08-18 | Mavs v. Warriors UNDER 221 | 103-121 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
The Dallas Mavericks visit a tired looking Golden State Warriors team on Thursday night that has lost 3 of their L/4 overall. The last time the Mavs came to town the Warriors took a 112-97 win and I'm expecting a similar output tonight. Note: Dallas has gone under in 7 of their L/8 while, the Dubs have gone under in 3 straight tilts. GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 UNDER L/10 when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season dating back to last season with a combined average of 217.4 ppg scored.DALLAS is 15-7 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season with a combined average of 207.2 ppg going on the board. DALLAS is 21-11 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 19-7 UNDER L/26 after 3 or more consecutive unders dating back to last season with the combined average score of 215.3 ppg going on the board. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent FT shooting team (79% or better) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games are 27-5 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 210.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - excellent free throw shooting team - making 80% or more of their free throws, in February games are 43-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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02-08-18 | Hornets v. Blazers OVER 213 | 103-109 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Portland as the season has progressed has reverted back to their old run and gun style of play and has improved its offensive production now ranking 15th in the NBA in offensive rating (105.2). The Blazers' defense has also gotten progressively worse and after being in the top 10 for a long time and are now ranked 11th at 104.9. ppg. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 18th in points allowed, and 14th in offense, with a combined average of 212.8 ppg scored. (106.4 ppg in both categories). From matchup perspective and a projections system I have used for 14 years, I'm expecting both sides to play a faster paced game then usual, and for the this combined score to eclipse the number. My projection has both sides scoring more than 105 points each- Note: PORTLAND is 20-0 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 230 ppg going on the board.CHARLOTTE is 49-2 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game with a combined average of 230.3 ppg scored. PORTLAND is 23-11 OVER L/34 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average score of 226.4 ppg clicking in on the board. PORTLAND is 12-2 OVER L/14 after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots with a combined average score of 223.3 ppg being registered. Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. PORTLAND is 23-11 OVER (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons HC Stotts is 8-0 OVER L/8 vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game - 2nd half of the season with a combined average score of 219.8 ppg scored.
Play OVER |
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02-08-18 | St. Mary's v. Loyola Marymount +12 | 83-62 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
LMU took down BYU last Thursday on the Bluff, and must not be underestimated in their ability to cover vs might St.Mary's here tonight. In the season’s first matchup with the Gaels, SMC shot 62 percent (31-for-50) against the Lions and 62.5 percent (10-for-16) from three, the best shooting percentages for any LMU opponent this season. I'm betting the Gaels won't come near those numbers again. Since that ugly low point, eight of LMU’s conference games have been decided by seven points or fewer, including seven of the last eight games and five straight. My own power rankings and system to system ranking suggest we have value with the home pup. Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (ST MARYS-CA) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, an explosive offensive team (76 PPG or more ) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games are 31-64 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Loyola Marymount to cover |
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02-08-18 | Southern Illinois v. Illinois State +2 | 68-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Southern Illinois and Illinois State are both playing some of their best basketball of the season entering this tilt, with Southern Illinois on a 5 game win streak, while the Red Birds are 3-0 L/3.During Illinois State head coach Dam Muller's tenure, the Redbirds have a 44-22 record over the last 12 games of the regular season, including a 4-2 mark this season. His ability to make his teams better as the season progresses, is a testament to his top teir coaching abilities, and his side is the choice tonight on their own home court behind his big time group of three leading scorers of Yarbrough, Keyshawn Evans , and Fayne . These athletes are a one of the best trios in the country as they average 15 points per game. Illinois State has covered 19 of the L/25 meetings in this series and when they own a .520 or better record like they do now they are a perfect 11-0 ATS. S ILLINOIS is 0-7 ATS L/7 after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S ILLINOIS) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are just 13-37 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors. Play on Illinois State to cover |
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02-08-18 | Celtics v. Wizards -1.5 | 110-104 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
The Washington Wizards despite of not having All-Star John Wall in the lineup conjured up a five-game winning streak before abruptly having it end in their last trip to the hardwood. The victorious run included wins vs Oklahoma City and Toronto. Meanwhile, their opponents the Boston Celtics also had their , four game win streak ended when they were beaten up on by Toronto last time out 111-91 thud. Now these teams will both be looking to get back on track. Both according to my power rankings are pretty evenly matched, with home court advantage being the difference maker and their ability to outduel their opponents via top tier ball movement and balanced scoring . WASHINGTON is 19-8 ATS L/27 in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last few seasons. Washington has won 5 of the L/7 meetings at home in this series SU. Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. NBA All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 40-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more are 8-54 SU L/21 seasons for a87% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Washington Wizards to cover |
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02-08-18 | Youngstown State +10.5 v. Illinois-Chicago | 75-100 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
The Flames won the last meeting between the schools, 92-78, at the Beeghly Center on Jan. 18, and now Youngstown State will be out looking for revenge and more importantly a top tier effort. I know Illinois Chicago is on a big time run right now , after a slow start to their campaign, but from a power rankings perspective and projections based on tonight's starting lineups we have value on this line with the underdog. The last time these schools played at the UIC Pavilion, the Flames came away with an 84-81 victory in 2017. YOUNGSTOWN ST is 27-13 ATS off 2 consecutive losses of 10 or more to conference rivals . CBB Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (YOUNGSTOWN ST) - off a home loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 71-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Youngstown State to cover |
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