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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225 | 119-106 | Push | 0 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1 |
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05-13-18 | Capitals v. Lightning OVER 6 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - WAS Leads 1-0 The Capitals came at the Lightning in game 1, and took them out of their flow with aggressive fore-checking for a 4-2 win . I'm betting the Bolts will be more prepared to play in transition tonight, and for this to be a fast paced offensive style game with a take no prisoners mentality attached to it. TAMPA BAY is 10-2 OVER   in home games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 7 gpg scored. NHL team against the total (TAMPA BAY/WASH) - in the conference finals, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 55-22 OVER L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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05-13-18 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
JEREMY HELLICKSON (R) vs. ZACK GODLEY (R) Jeremy Hellickson, the Nationals starter is currently in top form, and owns a minuscule 1.02 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill, and I once again expect he will provide his team, with a another strong effort vs a struggling Arizona offense, that has only twice in their L/9 games scored more than 3 runs, and have averaged just 3.7 rpg at home this season. Hellickson has seen his L/5 starts vs the DBacks stay under the total. HELLICKSON is 20-7 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last few seasons. Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 overall. Meanwhile, the DBacks starter Zack Godely has pitched his best ball at home this season where has garnered a stingy 1.96 ERA in 3 starts, allowing just 4 ERs in more than 18 innings of work. He goes against a Nationals offense that has a .246 BA that registers under the Mendoza line . Under is 3-1-1 in Godleys last 5 home starts..Under is 5-0 in Godleys last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. ARIZONA is 15-1 UNDER   in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.  ARIZONA is 13-0 UNDER   in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.  ARIZONA is 12-0 UNDER  in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.  .ARIZONA is 10-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season. ARIZONA is 15-4 UNDER in home games this season. ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER in home games in May games this season . Arizona games have seen a combined average 6.8 rpg scored this season. WASHINGTON is 32-14 UNDER against NL West opponents over the last couple seasons. WASHINGTON in 14 games against the  vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game this season have seen a combined average of 6.2 rpg scored. Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Arizona. Home plate umpire Foster has seen 5 of his L/7 appearances go under the set total. MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (WASHINGTON) - NL team with a low slugging percentage (.400 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 0.800 or better over his last 3 starts are 48-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-13-18 | Cardinals v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R) vs. CLAYTON RICHARD (L) Wainwright comes off the DL for his first  start since April 17 when he looked great vs the Cubs. His surgically repaired elbow was sore but his effort was a quality one. Wainwright is 6-3 in his career against the Padres with a 2.07 ERA and a .238 opponents' batting average. . His ERA against the Padres is the second lowest among active starters to Clayton Kershaw's 1.94.He is only 1-3 against the Padres at Petco Park, but he does own a stingy 2.63 ERA in those games. Under is 4-0 in Wainwrights last 4 starts vs. National League West. Under is 9-2 in Cardinals last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 8-2-2 in Cardinals last 12 overall. Meanwhile, the Padres starter. Richards despite of a tepid start to his season, has produced top tier results vs the Cards going  3-0 with a miniscule  0.95 ERA in his three starts against the Cardinals at Petco Park. Richards numbers may not be inspirational overall, but the hurler has pitched well outside of the National League West as was evident vs the Washington Nationals when he allowed  three runs on seven hits and no walks with eight strikeouts over eight innings Tuesday for his longest outing the of the season and his best performance since Opening Day. Note: RICHARD is 17-4 UNDER  in his career at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 . RICHARD in his L/25 games overall  when the total is 8 to 8.5 has seen a combined average score of 6.8 rpg scored. Richards L/4 games vs a winning team have gone under. These teams have gone UNDER in 4 of the L/5 meetings here and I'm betting another low scoring affair that fails to eclipse the number. MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (ST LOUIS) - revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less, good team, winning 54-62% or more of their games on the season are 125-68 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on UNDER |
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05-13-18 | Cavs -1 v. Celtics | 83-108 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 47 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1 The young Boston Celtics played like grizzled veterans in their first two series vs two teams Milwaukee and Philadelphia who showed their inexperience. The Celtics  played physical athletic ball, and came out on top thanks to their grit and chemistry. However, with that said, I'm betting the Celtics will not have an answer for a well rested LeBron James and a talented play off tested Cavaliers , that has matched up well against this Beantown Hoops group in the recent past. With that said, I'm recommending we back Cleveland to come out on top in a game the lines-makers have pegged as a pickem.  It must be noted that Cleveland hammered the Celtics in Boston back on Feb 11 by a 121 -99 score, covering a 5 dogs and have won 4 of the L/5 meetings. ( I will watch this series closely, and possibly adjust my assessments based on game 1, but for now on this line the Cavs get the nod. ) CLEVELAND is 10-1 ATS L/11 off a home blowout win by 20 points or more . ( Cavs beat Toronto 128-93 in the last game of a 4 game series sweep)  NBA Favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - an excellent offensive team (102 PPG) or more against a average at best defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a huge blowout win by 30 or more are 28-3 L/22 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.  NBA Home underdogs (BOSTON) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 8-34 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against  81% rate for bettors. Play on the Cleveland Cavs to cover |
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05-13-18 | Royals v. Indians -1.5 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
DANNY DUFFY (L) vs. COREY KLUBER (R) Kluber the Indians starter had a 4 game winning streak snapped last time out, and will be very ready to bounce back in this spot vs the KC Royals. In two starts against Kansas City last year, Kluber was 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA. Meanwhile, Duffy KCs starter . In three starts against the Indians last year, he was 0-3 with a 4.60 ERA. His team has also lost his L/6 starts vs the Tribe. DUFFY is 3-12 L/15 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons losing by an average of 2.2 rpg.
MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (CLEVELAND) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL are 101-20 L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 3 rpg. Play on the Indians on the RUNLINE -1.5 |
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05-12-18 | Rangers +1.5 v. Astros | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
DOUG FISTER (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R) The Astros entered their three-game series with the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park averaging just 3.8 runs at home compared with 5.9 runs on the road. Texas has enough offensive fire power to take out a team like the Astros that is struggling with run production at home, making them dangerous underdogs in this spot. Last season, the Astros averaged 4.9 runs at home with an .812 OPS while scoring 6.2 runs per game on the road with an .834 OPS, so their is definitely an issue , and something that must be examined. Tonight I'm betting that Rangers Right-hander Doug Fister (1-3, 4.02) is a capable of giving his team a chance to cash as underdogs in this spot.  Fister is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA in his four career starts against the Astros.
There is value here on the moneyline but I'm recommedning we take the bonus +1.5 runs for what will still be a plus payday if my betting assumptions on this game are correct . Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the Runline +1.5 |
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05-12-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets UNDER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The Vegas Knights are the most successful first-year franchise in the history of professional sports with  the key to their success being  an ability to play a hard core structured defensive system that scores a lot in transition. Its pretty obvious to anyone that watches them in action, that you cant intimidate them, and or take out of their system. Winnipeg was able to take Nashville out of their comfort zone, and won their last series, but I'm betting a more difficult task awaits the Jets here. Vegas is also fresh after being off for a week, after quickly disposing of San Jose .Meanwhile,  Winnipeg might be a little let down, after their grueling 7 game series vs Nashville and will be out to make sure mistakes are not made here in game 1 that will put them immediately behind the eight ball. With that said, I'm expecting these two big punchers to take part in  a respectful hard hitting conservative affair that stays on the low side of the Total. VEGAS is 13-4 UNDER against good starting goalies - (saving 91.5% or more of shots against) in the 2nd half of the season this season. WINNIPEG is 7-1 UNDER   in home games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season. NHL team against the total (WINNIPEG) - off a win by 3 goals or more over a division rival against opponent off a road win where they shut out their opponent are 46-22 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-12-18 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
 Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (4-3, 3.52 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Troy Scribner (2017: 2-1, 4.18) Strasburg the Nationals starter has recorded back-to-back quality starts after going 0-2 over his previous three trips to the hill. Strasburg owns a 3.59 ERA in 10 career starts. He goes against , a Arizona team that has scored more than 3 runs only twice in their L/8 games, and that averages just 3.8 rpg at home this season. Meanwhile, Scribner the DBacks expected starter at  Triple A-Reno this season has struck out 24 in 25 1/3 innings of work. "I'm anxious to show everybody what I can do," Scribner told reporters, "and hopefully I can show them why I belong here and can stay here to help the team." He will be primed to perform, and should provide a decent deterrent to a struggling  group of hitters that are not accustomed to his stuff. With that said, I'm expecting a total combined score to remain on the low side of the total. ARIZONA is 14-1 UNDER in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.  ARIZONA is 12-0 UNDER   in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.  ARIZONA is 12-0 UNDER  in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.  ARIZONA is 11-0 UNDER   in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. ARIZONA is 9-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season. Under is 5-1-1 in Nationals last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Under is 5-1 in Strasburgs last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 7-3 in Strasburgs last 10 road starts. Under is 24-11-3 in Nationals last 38 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 7-2-1 in Diamondbacks last 10 overall. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Arizona. Play UNDER |
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05-12-18 | A's v. Yankees OVER 9 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Athletics RH Andrew Triggs (3-1, 4.41 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Domingo German (0-1, 2.66) These starters today have looked capable this season, but both according to my power rankings are susceptible to being lit up by two explosive offenses. Yesterday, the Athletics smashed  out 14 hits - four home runs - to romp to a 10-5 win in the series opener. I'm expecting more fireworks this afternoon. Note: Oakland has averaged 5 rpg on the road this season , while the Yankees have scored an average of 6.4 rpg at home. The Athletics are 8-0 OVER in franchise history with Triggs on the hill when he had more K's than hits allowed in his last start which happened last time out. NY YANKEES are 9-1 OVER as a home favorite of -150 to -200 this season with a combined average score of 12.4 rpg scored. NY YANKEES are 8-0 OVER after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with a combined average of 12.8 rpg scored.NY YANKEES are 13-4 OVER in home games against right-handed starters this season with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. Play OVER |
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05-11-18 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Nationals RH Max Scherzer (6-1, 1.74 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Matt Koch (2-0, 2.13) Koch the DBacks starter tonight vs the Washington Nationals made his season debut in relief but has made four starts since, allowing fewer than three earned runs in each while working at least six innings three times. Meanwhile, Three time Cy Young award winner Scherzer is in top form and continues to be a strike out king, as is evident by reaching double digits in strikeouts in five of his eight trips to the hill this year, and should once again give his opposition the DBacks fits here tonight. With that said, I'm expecting a pitcher duel in the desert tonight and for this combined score to stay on the low side of the number. ARIZONA is 13-1 UNDER   in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.  ARIZONA is 11-0 UNDER   in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.  ARIZONA is 10-0 UNDER  in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.  ARIZONA is 10-0 UNDER   in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.ARIZONA is 8-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season. Under is 4-0 in Kochs last 4 home starts.Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 9-1 in Nationals last 10 during game 2 of a series.Under is 34-16-6 in Nationals last 56 road games.Under is 23-11-3 in Nationals last 37 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings including last nights 2-1 Nationals 11 inning  win. Play UNDER |
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05-11-18 | Capitals v. Lightning OVER 6 | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1 These two explosive offenses are well rested and ready to run and gun tonight in the opening game of their best of 7 eastern conference finals series. With that said, I expect this total to be eclipsed. WASHINGTON is 9-1 OVER  when playing with 3 or more days rest this season with a combined average of 6.5 gpg scored. WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER L/7 in road games after allowing 1 goal or less in their previous game this season with an average of 7.3 gpg scored. ( The caps wrapped up their last series vs the Pens with a 2-1 road win)Over is 21-7-1 in Capitals last 29 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. TAMPA BAY is 42-24 OVER against good offensive teams - 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or better of their pp this season with a combined average of 6.6 gpg scored. Anomaly or not its still interesting to note that TAMPA BAY is 10-2 OVER   in home games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons, with a combined average of 7.9 gpg scored. Over is 21-8-1 in Lightning last 30 vs. Metropolitan. Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Tampa Bay. Play OVER |
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05-11-18 | Royals v. Indians -1.5 | 10-9 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
JASON HAMMEL (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R) Hammel the Royals hurler has been what is regarded as a inning filler for his team of late. The right handers performances are less than respectable and in his L/3 trips to the hill he has garnered a bloated 7.00 ERA. Add to that he's backed by a bullpen that owns a ugly 7.37 road ERA and you have a recipe for Cleveland's offense to feast . Meanwhile, Cleveland's starter Bauer has been a steading presence in his teams rotation and owns a 2.52 ERA , and a stingy 1.91 home ERA. He will be backed by a offensive attack that has done his best work at home this season averaging 5.4 rpg via a solid .272 BA. With that said, I'm recommending we lay the lumber with a value -1.5 RL situation here this evening in Ohio with the Indians. HAMMEL is 0-9 L/9 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game losing by an average of 3.5 rpg  and is 1-10  against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse dating back to last season with the average loss coming by 2.6 rpg. (Team's Record) HAMMEL is also 1-19 against the money line as an underdog of +175 to +250 in his career with the combined average deficit clicking in at 3.5 rpg (Team's Record) MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (CLEVELAND) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after a win by 4 runs or more are 41-3 L/21 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 3.7 rpg. Play on the Cleveland Indians -1.5 runline |
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05-11-18 | Royals v. Indians OVER 8.5 | 10-9 | Win | 104 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
JASON HAMMEL (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R) Jason Hammel the Royals starter is in struggling form and has garnered a 7.00 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill. He faces a Indians side that has done its best offensive work at home this season, averaging 5.4 rpg via stable .272 BA .It must be noted that the Indians are 7-0 OVER at home after a game in which Francisco Lindor had multiple hits.( He had two vs the Brewers last time out in a 6-2 road win) The Tribe have gone over the total by an average of 7 runs per game in this situation. I'm betting the Indians will do some damage here tonight and almost single handily eclipse this number. CLEVELAND is 31-10 OVER vs. a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts with a combined average of 11.3 rpg scored. Over is 7-0 in Indians last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 12-1 in Indians last 13 home games.Over is 5-2 in Royals last 7 road games. MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start, with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season (AL) are 50-22 OVER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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05-10-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees -121 | 5-4 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L) Sabathia the Yankees starter  is 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA in four starts since coming off the disabled list April 19, and that includes a top tier effort in his last trip to the hill as threw six scoreless innings and a season-high seven strikeouts against Cleveland on Friday. Sabathia, owned the BoSox last season going  4-0 with a 1.04 ERA in four starts and is my choice tonight vs another strong pitcher in Rodriguez, who despite a s strong start to his campaign has given up 5 runs in back to back trips to the hill. It must be noted that after a strong start to their season , Boston has lost 9 of their L/17 and not operating at a high level , while the Yankees are red hot winning 7 straight and look to be run away freight train that you want to ride and not  stand in front of in their current form. BOSTON is 3-8  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season. NY YANKEES are 20-4 against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. NY YANKEES are 12-0 against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. NY YANKEES are 9-1 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. SABATHIA team when he starts is 21-9  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game. SABATHIA when he starts has seen his  team go 8-0 L/8 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 . Red Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Red Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. American League East. Yankees are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Yankees are 40-13 in their last 53 home games.Yankees are 4-0 in Sabathias last 4 starts.Yankees are 17-4 in Sabathias last 21 home starts.Yankees are 42-17 in Sabathias last 59 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Yankees are 5-0 in Sabathias last 5 starts vs. Red Sox. Play on the NY Yankees to win on the moneyliine |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | 112-114 | Win | 102 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - BOS Leads 3-1 The Boston Celtics with 3-1 series lead are one win away from clinching the Eastern Conference finals for the second straight season when they host the Philadelphia 76ers this Wednesday night at the TD Center in Boston. The Celtics were the superior side in 3 of the 4 games, each time as an underdog and were head to head with the 76ers at the mid way point of the last game, before running out of gas in the 2nd half vs a desperate team, that exerted a lot of energy in that win. I'm betting the Celtics are fresher than their opponents after game 4, and will be very inspired here to end this series at home an avoid a dangerous game 6 situation. They are my choice in this tilt. Note NBA HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading Win/Win/Win/Loss: Game 5 record, NBA , Quarterfinals round: 16-3 (.842). Also HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-1 @ Home /Home/Visitor/Visitor than Home : Game 5 record, NBA, Quarterfinals round: 52-13 (.800) HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWWL @ HHVV:Game 5 record, NBA, Quarterfinals round: 14-3 (.824).From a historical trending perspective the Celtics have an edge. Leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1, the Boston Celtics have a 26-0 series record.Trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-1,the Philadelphia 76ers have a 0-14 series record. No NBA team has ever rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series. BOSTON is 10-0 ATS as a home underdog this season and is 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less this season.BOSTON is 10-0 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season and is 7-0 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. Boston is 7-1 SU L/8 meetings here in Boston. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 165-104 ATS L/22 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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05-09-18 | Pirates -108 v. White Sox | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Pirates RH Trevor Williams (4-2, 2.63 ERA) vs. White Sox RH Reynaldo Lopez (0-2, 2.43) Pirates starter Williams has held opposition hitters to a .193 batting average, and he also owns a viable 3-1 record and an ERA of 1.69 in interleague play, and must be respected here as a short favorite. The Pirates currently own a 7-2 record in interleague play this season, and have the edge vs a struggling  White Sox team has lost 4 straight games and 8 of their L/9 overall. Pittsburgh also owns a  23-9 against the AL Central dating to June 15, 2015. I know the Pale Hose starter Lopez has been very capable this season, but with a offense that is capable of very little run support he is currently fade material. Note: HURDLE is 34-18 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better as the manager of PITTSBURGH. The White Sox are a team that rarely takes advantage of any teams weaknesses because of a inconsistent offense as is obvious by their  4-16 record against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season and struggle against strong defensive teams like the Pirates as they are 2-13  against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game this season. CHI WHITE SOX are 1-9 against the money line in home games in day games this season. MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against a very good NL starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or less), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 10-41 L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 81% for bettors on the blind. Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates to win on the moneyline |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 226 | 104-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - GSW Leads 3-1 The explosive Golden State Warriors with a chance to clinch this series vs the New Orleans Pelicans will come out here with all guns blazing, and the Pelicans who can also score in bunches will have no other choice but to open up with some offensive fire works of their own or be blown of the court. This game either goes back and forth as both feed off each others energy, or the Warriors romp and the Pelicans chase. Which ever of these likely scenarios emerges , the end result I'm betting will see the combined score eclipse this Total.  It must also be noted that both teams are well rested , 2 days off, which bodes well for a high energy run and gun affair. My own projections estimate that both sides will score north of +105 points. GOLDEN STATE is 35-11 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average score of 234.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 52-14 OVER L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors  with a combined average of 232 ppg going on the board . Play OVER |
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05-08-18 | Indians v. Brewers +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 103 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
COREY KLUBER (R) vs. WADE MILEY (L) The Indians have a recent history of not playing well enough to win consistently in interleague play . The reasons are complex but the results are obvious. note: Indians are 2-9 in their last 11 interleague road games. Indians are 3-12 in their last 15 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Indians are 1-4 in Klubers last 5 interleague starts.Indians are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee. Not only have the Indians struggled in interleague play in the past,  but so far this season, they have had issues garnering road wins, losing 9 of their 15 games. Needless to say, even though the Indians have a top tier hurler on the mound a win is not a guaranteed thing.  With that said, we have  value taking +1.5 runs on the RL with the Brewers , and that's what I'm recommending we do. MILWAUKEE is 24-14  against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start .Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Brewers are 7-2 in their last 9 home games.MILWAUKEE is 9-0 L/9 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite which was the case vs the Pirates last time out on Sunday. CLEVELAND is 0-7 against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game this season. CLEVELAND is 1-7 L/8 against the money line after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs which happened vs the Yankees in their last game. Play on the Milwaukee Brewers on the RL +1.5 |
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05-08-18 | Twins v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
JAKE ODORIZZI (R) vs. CARLOS MARTINEZ (R) Martinez the Cards starter this afternoon vs the visiting Minnesota Twins has allowed just three runs over 40 2/3 innings in his L/6 starts, and currently is in top form. Meanwhile, Ordizzi the Twins starter despite of some inconsistent efforts is a stable pitcher that can produce quality starts.Odorizzi is 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA in three career starts versus the Cardinals. I'm betting both these starting pitchers go long enough and strong enough to help keep this combined score on the low side of the Total. MARTINEZ is 13-3 UNDER after giving up 1or less  earned runs in his last 2 outings.ST LOUIS is 63-33 UNDER  in home games against AL Central opponents Under is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 3-0-1 in Martinezs last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Under is 6-1 in Martinezs last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 5-2 in Twins last 7 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-2 in Twins last 7 interleague road games. Under is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings in St. Louis. Under is 11-0 in the last 11 meetings. Play UNDER |
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05-07-18 | Raptors v. Cavs -5.5 | 93-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - CLE Leads 3-0 The Cleveland Cavaliers have proven that they matchup very well against the Toronto Raptors as is evident by their commanding 3-0 series lead. The Raptors have done everything but win in the three games that have been played in this series and are now a deflated team. You could see it in game 1 when they lost 113-112 in OT after leading for much of that game, and than in game 3 when the king of basketball, LeBron James made a last second shot, and snatched victory away from a horrified and demoralized Dino's group.  With the Cavaliers now smelling blood in the water, and a chance to close out this series at home ,  I expect it will be them and not the Raptors that will come out here firing on all cylinders. I'm betting its party over for the Raptors. Note: When leading a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-0, the Cleveland Cavaliers have a series record of 9-0 and a Game 4 record of 9-0. When trailing a best-of-7 NBA playoff series 3-games-0, the Toronto Raptors have a series record of 0-2 and a Game 4 record of 0-2. Cleveland has won 10 of the L/11 meetings in this series SU. Casey is 17-31 ATS  in all playoff games as the coach of TORONTO. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a close home win by 3 points or less, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% are 48-8 L/22 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 7.5 ppg. NBA Underdogs (TORONTO) - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 15-52 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover |
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05-07-18 | Giants v. Phillies OVER 9 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
JEFF SAMARDZIJA (R) vs. ZACH EFLIN (R) I'm betting the San Francisco Giants will continue their dominance against the National League East this week in Philadelphia at least from a offensive output perspective. They just beat up on the Braves scoring 24 runs in a 3 game sweep, and have scored , 9,9, 11, 4 respectively in their L/4 games overall. They go against a starter in Eflin that has looked good in 6 innings of work sicne being recalled from the minors, but Eflin in 22 major league starts before this season as been sub par at best. Three of those games were against the Giants. Eflin is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.438 WHIP in those trips to the hill, and I'm betting he gets beat up on today. Meanwhile, the giants starter Samardzija  who has been injured this season, and still getting 100% healthy has a negative history in this park,  as is evident by a  15.43 ERA in four career appearances (one start) at Citizens Bank Park, allowing 12 hits and 12 runs in seven innings. Samardzija also has an 8.18 ERA against the Phillies in 11 career appearances and could also get roughed up in this spot. Over is 11-4 in Eflins last 15 starts overall.Over is 8-3 in Giants last 11 overall.Over is 8-0 in Eflins last 8 starts vs. National League West.Over is 6-0 in Eflins last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Philadelphia. Play OVER |
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05-07-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. 76ers | 92-103 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - BOS Leads 3-0 Despite of the Boston Celtics 3-0 series, lead the lines-makers are barely adjusting their numbers on these play off matches with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixer's on paper are the superior team, but the Beantown hoops crew has the superior chemistry , girt and game plane to stifle a young group that may have not paced them selves properly in regular season play. Philadelphia  had a take no prisoners, pedal to the metal mindset for the 2nd half of the  season and the Sixer's because of this may have now run out of gas before hitting the proverbial finish line. Add to that the Celtics have matched up well vs teams like Philly all season long , making them viable underdogs for the 4th straight time in this series. While past results don't guarantee a continuation of occurrences, they must still be recognized and be respected. It sure as hell looks like the current version of the Celtics has the 76ers number, and until other wise proven wrong I'll grab the points. BOSTON is 10-2 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game this season and is 14-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.BOSTON is 34-14 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season. BOSTON is 13-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 L/6 SU at Philly. BOSTON is 23-7 ATS as an underdog this season and 16-6 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.BOSTON is 14-2 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season and a perfect is 7-0 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog this season. PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS L/34 off a home loss . NBA team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - off a home loss against a division rival, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are just 11-28 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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05-06-18 | Rockets -5 v. Jazz | 100-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - HOU Leads 2-1
HOUSTON is 19-9 ATSÂ when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) with the average margin of victory combing by more than 10 ppg. HOUSTON is 15-7 ATSÂ as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season and now is 18-7 ATSÂ against Northwest division opponents this season. Overall HOUSTON is 27-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and is 25-13 ATS as a road favorite this season. NBA Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (HOUSTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after scoring 105 points or more 3 straight games are a long term good bet, going 189-119 L/22 seasons for a 62% conversion rate on the blind for bettors. Play on Houston to cover |
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05-06-18 | Dodgers v. Padres +150 | 0-3 | Win | 150 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
ROSS STRIPLING (R) vs. ERIC LAUER (L)
Dodgers Manager ROBERTS is 14-23 against the money line after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs which happened yesterday vs the Padres In a loss. LA DODGERS are 6-12 against the money line after a loss this season. LA DODGERS are 3-11 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. MLB team (LA DODGERS) - off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -200 or higher, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 15-30 L/5 seasons for a for a go against conversion rate of 68% on the money-line. Play on the SD Padres to win on the moneyline |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - CLE Leads 2-0  Toronto does not seem to matchup well vs the Cavaliers. However, after being humiliated in front of their home town fans in game 2, of their series, in a DD loss, the Raptors are now desperate for a bounce back and will playing loose. Add to that super star LeBron James, constant taunting of both the Raptors players and their fans and you have an opponent with a chip on their shoulders and enough talent to make game 3 a war as they look to shake the cant perform in the play off moniker .With that said I'm recommending we take the Raptors plus the points  here in game 3. Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. CLEVELAND is 11-29 ATS as a home favorite this season.CLEVELAND is 3-15 ATS in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season.CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS   in home games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS off a road win this season. HC Lue is 6-18 ATS  L/24 in home games after scoring 120 points or more . NBA team vs the money line (TORONTO) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more are 25-6 SU L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Toronto Raptors to cover |
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05-05-18 | Penguins v. Capitals -114 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 35 h 30 m | Show | |
The Capitals are  a mature team that has obviously learned a lot from past play off experiences. Their tough as nails, and some are calling them down right dirty, but what they are playing is gritty take no prisoners hockey, and that makes them dangerous here at home tonight in DC. The defending Stanley cup champion Pens look wobbly, despite of tying this series, with a 3-1 win Thursday night, and a upset alert sign should be hung on this series . Penguins are 2-6 in their last 8 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.Capitals are 92-39 in their last 131 home games.Capitals are 37-16 in their last 53 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Tied 2-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Washington Capitals have an active four-Game 5 winning streak. Play on the Washington Capitals to win on the moneyline |
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05-05-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 6-8 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
TYLER CHATWOOD (R) vs. LUKE WEAVER (R) The Chicago Care struggling to score, and just because they are going against a pitcher in Weaver that is currently not in top form in no way guarantees much in the run production from their end. The Cubs are hitting just under the Mendoza line with a .249 BA vs righty starters this season.  Meanwhile, Tyler Chatwood (2-3, 2.83) takes the ball for the Cubs. He goes against a Cards offense that  hasn't scored more than three runs in five straight games. Note:ST LOUIS is 15-4 UNDER  L/19 in home games after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games and  is 16-3 UNDER ( in home games after scoring 3 runs or less 5 straight games . Chatwood is backed by an bullpen that owns a solid 1.57 ERA in road games this season. Everything points to a combined score that should stay below the posted total. CHICAGO CUBS are 38-19 UNDER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. Under is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 overall. Under is 4-0-1 in Cardinals last 5 on grass.Under is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 home games.Under is 3-0-2 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-1-1 in Cardinals last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 5-1-2 in Cardinals last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 vs. National League Central.Under is 6-0 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 during game 2 of a series.Under is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 overall.Under is 8-1 in Cubs last 9 on grass.Under is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-1-2 in Cubs last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Under is 27-12-2 in Cubs last 41 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings in St. Louis.Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.Under is 17-4 in umpire  Hernandezs last 21 games behind home plate. MLB Road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (CHICAGO CUBS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. are 51-21 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. MLB team (CHICAGO CUBS) - good NL offensive team (4.7 runs/game or less ) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less ), starting a pitcher who gave up 1 earned runs in his last 2 outings and are 45-19 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-04-18 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 9 | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. BARTOLO COLON (R) There were some offensive fireworks in the first game of this series , as Texas took a TEXAS is 20-6 L/26 OVERÂ in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season with an average of 12 rpg scored.TEXAS is 43-20 OVER L/63 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored.TEXAS is 17-8 OVERÂ as an underdog of +100 or higher this season with a combined average of 9.8 rpg scored. Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.Over is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Over is 6-0-1 in Rangers last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 6-0-1 in Rangers last 7 overall. Over is 8-3 in Red Sox last 11 vs. American League West.Over is 7-2 in Red Sox last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (TEXAS) - team with a terrible SLG (.400 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL are 33-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 12.1 rpg scored. Play OVER |
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05-04-18 | Warriors -4.5 v. Pelicans | 100-119 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - GSW Leads 2-0 |
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05-03-18 | Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors | 128-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - CLE Leads 1-0 The Cleveland Cavaliers had problems with the under rated Indiana Pacers in their last series, and barely scratched out a series win, but according to my own power rankings matchup very well vs the Toronto Raptors as has been evident in recent meetings between these two eastern conference sides. With that said, I am recommending we take the points again here in game 2 in go directly against the zig zag theory. Raptors are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games. Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Toronto. TORONTO is 18-33 ATSÂ revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite and is 4-14 ATS L/18Â Â in home games when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent. TORONTO is 2-13 ATSÂ Â vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Toronto Raptors are 0-14 ATS as a favorite off a home game when they lost at least two straight vs their opponent.The Toronto Raptors are 0-13 ATS off a loss as a favorite in which they led after each of the first three quarters. ( Both happened in the 1st game of this series when the Cavs came back for a 113-112 OT win) Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover |
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05-03-18 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
MICHAEL FIERS (R) vs. ERIC SKOGLUND (L) Skoglund KCs starter  is 1-2 with a 6.23 ERA this season, allowing 15 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings. His opponents today the Detroit Tigers have done their best offensive work vs southpaws like himself this season, as is evident by averaging 7.7 rpg vs LHP. Skoglund is backed by a struggling bullpen that owns a bloated 6.33 ERA on the season. Meanwhile, In three career starts at Kauffman Stadium, Fiers the Tigers  starter is 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA, giving up 10 earned runs over 14 1/3 innings.FIERS is 20-8 OVER L/28 when playing against a team with a losing record with a combined average of 10.6 rpg scored. The tigers have struggled to score of late, but their is just to much offensive talent on this team for them to stay down for long. Note:DETROIT is 8-0 OVER L/8 after scoring 3 runs or less 4 straight games with a combined average of 13 rpg scored. MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (KANSAS CITY) - team with a terrible SLG (.400 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL are 33-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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05-02-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -102 | 2-1 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
HYUN-JIN RYU (L) vs. ZACK GODLEY (R) The Arizona Diamondbacks are off to the best start in franchise history, and must be respected a viable investment option on the money-line in this tilt vs the LA Dodgers. Arizona (21-8) has won seven of eight against the Dodgers this season and 13 of the last 14 regular-season games and are my choice again tonight. The Dodgers starter is
MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA DODGERS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games are 15-46 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Arizona DBacks to win on the moneyline |
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05-02-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -11 | 116-108 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
I expected the Jazz to make tis a all out  in the trenches war, but I didn't expect was the Rockets were capable of coming back with some grit of their own and out gunning the Jazz in transition. Add in an explosive offense, and a under rated D, and you have to have respect for the home team here, even on a -11 point chalk line. Recently the Jazz have lost the L/5 meetings in this series by DDs. It seems no matter what they can muster the Rockets just have their number, and look especially vulnerable with Guard Rubio out with an injury. Right now I have to follow the flow of these head to head meetings and until the Jazz prove other wise, I'm recommending we lay the lumber with the Rockets, especially here on their own home floor. HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS  against Northwest division opponents this season with the average margin of victory coming by 11.4 ppg. Jazz are 0-13 ATS /SU as a eight-plus point dog with more than one day of rest off a loss losing SU by an average of 18.92 ppg and are 0-11 ATS /SU  as a dog with rest off a double-digit loss as a road dog in which they made more field goals than their opponent losing by an average of 16.27 pig. NBA Home teams (HOUSTON) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season. are 33-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Houston Rockets to cover |
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05-02-18 | Blue Jays -102 v. Twins | 0-4 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
MARCUS STROMAN (R) vs. FERNANDO ROMERO (R) The Twins are in a horrendous slump and have lost 12 of their L/13 games. They have lost 8 of their 9 vs a right handed starter like Stroman. I know the Twins have called upon their top minor league pitching prospect Romero, but facing a potent Blue Jays lineup in his first big league start does not look like a viable situation for the kid. The Blue Jays have averaged 5.6 rpg on the road this season, and their bull pen has been in good form as is evident by a 2.23 road ERA. I'm betting Stroman who has struggled so far this season gets enough run support and bullpen support for the Jays to come out of this with a win this afternoon. Twins are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Blue Jays are 6-0 L/6 vs Central Division teams. MINNESOTA is 4-20 against the money line in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities dating back to last season.MINNESOTA is 46-76 against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons and is 26-44 against the money line in home games in day games during the same time period. MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (.320 or less ) against a team with a bad bullpen (WHIP 1.550 or better ), with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season are 34-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays to win on the moneyline |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -10.5 | 116-121 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0 The Warriors when at or near full strength remain the worlds most explosive basketball team. Many people doubted them during the season, but its looks very much like they were wrong, as the Dubs were just conserving their energy for the play offs. Now its full steam ahead, and all comers are in trouble including tonight's opponent the Pelicans. In game one the Warriors superiority and dominance was obvious in a 123-101  DD victory and I'm betting on more of the same over powering hoops from the defending champs tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 19-8 ATS  off a home blowout win by 20 points or more dating back to last season with the average margin of victory coming by almost 14 ppg. The Warriors are 15-0 ATS/SU covering by an average of 13.47 ppg as a well-rested home favorite off a 10+ home win in which they had at least a 10 percent higher Basket assist % than their opponent with the average SU margin of victory coming by a whopping 22 points , and over the L/3 years the Dubs are 11-0 SU/ATS under the same perimeters winning by an average of 25.63 ppg, with only one game decided by 12 points or less, and the other 10 by huge hefty DD margins. NBA Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are just 59-99 ATS L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover |
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05-01-18 | Rockies v. Cubs -158 | 3-1 | Loss | -158 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
: Rockies RH Jon Gray (2-4, 5.79 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (2-1, 3.10) Cubs starting pitchers have not allowed an earned run in 33 2/3 innings – and I'm betting on Kyle Hendricks who owns a1.38 ERA at home this season to be in top form here today vs a Colorado Rockies team, that has scored just 4 runs in their L/4 games. I know the Cubs bats have not been much better, but its just a matter of time before they tee off on a pitcher, and today looks like a good opportunity as Jon Gray remains very inconsistent. Note: GRAYs team in his starts is  is 2-15 against the money line in road games when working on 5 or 6 days rest . CHICAGO CUBS are 14-3 L/17 against the money line after 2 straight games with no home runs. MLB Road teams (COLORADO) - after scoring 2 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 5 runs or less 4 straight games are 13-38 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors. MLB Home teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after a combined score of 5 runs or less 4 straight games are 36-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the money-line |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 207.5 | 101-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1 The Celtics and the Sixers will resume to long time rivalry in the first game of this 2nd round play off matchup this Monday night. I'm expecting the Celtics to make this a physically, grinding series as they look to slow down their opponents explosive offensive attack, and to be hell bent on controlling the boards, especially in their own end, where the Sixers have been rebound behemoths on offense this season. The Celtics base their successes and failures on their ability to play D, and here in game one with key contributor Jaylen Brown expected to miss or be less than 100% the Celtics are really going to depend on their superior defending capabilities vs the run and gun Sixers. It must also be noted that the Sixers have been off since Tuesday, and may show some rust here vs a side that I'm betting will be physical with them. Meanwhile, the Celtics are off a grueling 7 game series with the Bucks and will not have the legs or emotional drive to run here tonight. The above combinations should see this tilt remain on the low side of the Total. Asked Sunday for keys to defeating the Celtics, Sixers coach Brett Brown said, "Just how you're gonna score. ... They're an excellent defensive team. We respect them with what they do defensively and I think they're clever offensively BOSTON is 11-3 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 198.7 ppg scored.Brown is 33-17 UNDER   in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average score of 199 ppg scored. Stevens is 42-17 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of BOSTON with a combined average of 202.7 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 41-16 UNDER l/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-29-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | 96-110 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 1 WAR. That's what I'm betting the Jazz want to make this series into . Not only a physical in the trenches confrontation which they have an advantage in , but a mental and emotionally charged conflict. In the book the " ART OF WAR" Sun Tzu , there is a chapter that, explains how an army's opportunities come from the openings in the environment caused by the relative weakness of the enemy and how to respond to changes in the fluid battlefield over a given area. This is something the Jazz have been very good at in the 2nd half of the season, as is evident by their impressive record. I know Houston is a behemoth enemy and the Jazz are off a grueling series with the Thunder, and that now the linesmakers are expecting an emotional and physical drop off for the Jazz vs the Rockets in game 1 of this series. But , what's become evident to me is the rarity with which the Jazz, deter from work horse like ethics, and how disciplined they are, as well as their ability to pinpoint a teams weaknesses and attack it. With that said there is enough value on the line, for me to take the points here in game 1, and than watch closely to see which direction Ill take in game 2, depending directly on how game 1 plays out. Just one last thing I know the Jazz have lost by DDs in recent meetings with the Rockets, but this team has shown a ability to learn from their mistakes, and Houston has recently not looked as cohesive as usual.
UTAH is 8-0 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 120 points or more this season ( which happened in their series clinching game vs the Wolves last time out) Note: The Jazz are 15-0 ATS /14-1 SU on the road with rest off a game as a favorite in which they scored less than 15% of their points from free throws , the lone SUÂ loss came by 3 points .
Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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04-29-18 | Rangers +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
MARTIN PEREZ (L) vs. J.A. HAPP (L) The Rangers will be going for a three-game sweep of the Blue Jays Sunday afternoon at the Rogers Centre as they try to dig themselves out of a hole created by a 4-11 start.The Rangers now on a huge momentum swing have won three games in a row for the first time this season. The Blue Jays meanwhile, are playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum and have lost four straight for the first time since Aug. 27-30 and have dropped seven of their past nine games. I know the Jays go against a struggling pitcher in Perez, but the way their swinging the bat right now especially in clutch situations makes them fade material as nothing comes easy for this group. PEREZ is 7-0 against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. TEXAS is 11-4 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.TORONTO is 9-17 against the money line in home games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. MLB favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line -120 to +115) (TORONTO) - team with a poor SLG (.410 or less ) against a terrible starting pitcher (WHIP 1.700 or more) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL) are 8-34 L/21 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the RUNLINE +1.5 |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors OVER 222.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 31 h 6 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1 Three of the four games these teams played against each other this season resulted in high scoring affairs. The two most recent games have seen 246, and 240 points scored. These teams are electric offensively and feed off of each others attacks in transition. I'm betting if Golden State wants to beat the streaking Pelicans their going to have to score in bunches, and I am equally confident  that the Pelicans can produce some offensive fireworks of their own in a opening game that I have pegged to go OVER the total. Note: New Orleans has scored 111, 119, 131 in their L/3 games. NEW ORLEANS is 17-6 OVER when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season with the average combined score of those games clicking in at 227.7 ppg.NEW ORLEANS is 22-12 OVER after a combined score of 225 points or more this season with a combined average of 226.4 ppg scored ( NO beat PORT 131-123 L/time out) NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) are 54-14 OVER L/22  seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average score of 233 ppg going on the score board. Play on the OVER |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -7.5 | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 2 - Best of 7 - Game 1 In a game I have pegged for a run and gun affair laying 8 or 9 points is not a concern, according to my own projections. Golden State can score in bunches and that what I'm expecting they will do today against a another high octane offense, but the difference maker will come via home court advantage and the Warriors overall superior talent and of course their play off experience. The Warriors will also be motivated in knowing their opponent is streaking, and will be very prepared to take the proverbial wind out of their sails and deliver the message that the Warriors are champions to be feared, especially with Curry si  in the lineup( upgraded to possible for this game 1 tilt) Even if he does not play I still like the Warriors in Game 1 . Also after 3 days rest, I'm betting the Pelicans momentum might take a hit. In the past , they are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games playing on 3 or more days rest and have a recent history of conference semi final ATS futility failing to cash 4 of their 5 . Warriors are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Note: Warriors are 26-2 SU  L/28 in this series. The Pelicans did upset the Warriors this season, but Curry was not in the lineup. He's been upgraded to possibly play tonight, and I'm betting their will be no upset in this sot. The Pelicans are 0-15 SU/ATS as a dog off a home win in which they scored at least 15 points more in the second half than they did the first half with the average margin loss coming by 15.93 ppg, with the closest loss coming by 10 points. Play on Golden State Warriors to cover |
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04-28-18 | Yankees -103 v. Angels | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. GARRETT RICHARDS (R) Yankees are 7-0 in their last 7 overall. Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Angels are 0-7 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Angels are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter. MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - team with a good SLG (.440 or better ) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start are 41-21 L/22 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. |
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04-28-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | 96-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3 The Celtics are a storied franchise, with a great fan base, and tonight, the TD Center will be rocking. This I'm betting will be an intimidating environment for the Bucks, who are at a disadvantage here in my humble opinion. The Bucks,  have lost eight straight series since winning two in 2001 and are 0-17 all-time when trailing a series 0-2. The Celtics are 35-0 when leading a series 2-0 and are once again my pick to advance to the next round and more importantly as far as we are concerned to cover the number. "Game 7 at TD Garden is what you play for," said Boston coach Brad Stevens, whose team won a seventh game against the Washington Wizards in last year's Eastern Conference semifinals. The experience of that victory will also be an advantage of the Celtics. BOSTON is 16-4 ATS on Saturday games ( anomaly or nor still an interesting trend). BOSTON is a perfect  9-0 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.( They lost game 6 by 11 points, but the game was a lot closer than the final score would indicate) Celtics are 11-2 ATS off a road loss. Milwaukee is 4-13 ATS L/17 as a road dog. The Bucks are 0-24 ATS L/24 as a rested dog off a win as a home favorite over a 280+ team and they are facing a team with an assist-to-turnover ratio greater than 1.47 like the Celtics. NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 51-6 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with the average margin of victory combing by 10.2 ppg. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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04-28-18 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Diamondbacks LH Patrick Corbin (4-0, 1.89 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 4.50) Patrick Corbin the DBacks starting hurler today has been excellent at home, but has not looked good in his one road start this season, allowing 3 runs in 5 1/3 innings of work, while accumulating a 5.07 ERA. He h history of sub par road performances, even against struggling offensive sides like the Nationals. Corbin,is 1-1 with a 5.31 ERA in four career starts against Washington. Meanwhile, Hellickson the Backs starter looked good in his last start, but despite of his vast MLB experience, is highly inconsistent and  is just 0-3 with a 5.32 ERA in four career starts against the Diamondbacks. ARIZONA is 9-1 OVER   in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season with a combined average of 9.6 rpg scored. CORBIN is 20-6 OVER   in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 with a combined average of 10.3 rg scored. Over is 23-4-1 in Corbins last 28 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 7-0 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 6-0 in Diamondbacks last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings. team MLB teams like  (ARIZONA) - with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts, excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season are 45-14 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the OVER |
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04-27-18 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 8 | 4-6 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
HYUN-JIN RYU (L) vs. DEREK HOLLAND (L) |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers -1 | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - CLE Leads 3-2 Ill just say it right off the bat, the Pacers are every bit as good a team as the Cavaliers, and must not be underestimated here at home as short chalk, with elimination on the line. They lost a last shot heartbreaker in Cleveland 98-95 and I'm betting will be on the right side of this tilt and force a game 7. QUOTE:  "The series ain't over," Oladipo said. "You got to win four games, right? We still got a game on Friday. I don't think anyone is discouraged or upset. It sucks we lose. But we can give ourselves a chance to come back (to Cleveland) for Game 7." END QUOTE. Oladipo may not be the most eloquent of speakers, but he has captured my feelings to the tee. Yes, I know the Cavs have the best player in the world on the floor ( LeBron James) but the Pacers have something that is coveted by all sports team and that is chemistry. INDIANA is 26-13 ATS  versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.CLEVELAND is 11-22 ATS  versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season. INDIANA is 15-4 ATS in April games over the last 2 seasons.INDIANA is 19-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season and is 11-2 ATS  in home games after having lost 3 of their last 4 games dating back to last season. Cavs HC  Lue is 19-34 ATS  vs. division opponents in his career. The Pacers are 14-0 SU /ATS as a favorite with rest off a loss as a dog in which they made more field goals than their opponent with the average margin of victory coming by 15 ppg. NBA  Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are just 23-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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04-26-18 | Celtics +5 v. Bucks | 86-97 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 14 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 6 - BOS Leads 3-2 Boston is a character team, and rarely never give it 100% and consistently come out and play hard. The banged up Celtics have been tenacious in 4 of the 5 games in this series, and notched the 92-87 win last time out on their own home floor to grab a 3-2 lead in this series. The Bucks are very talented and I'm not being disrespectful here, but they don't have the same never say die work ethic the Celtics have. They won their two games at home in this series because of tremendous shooting ( 57,52% FG), but their FG% conversion rate has been wildly inconsistent this season, as was the case last time out when they scored just 87 points and converted on just 36.8% of their shots I know this a do or die situation for the Bucks, but I'm betting the Celtics make this a war, and won;t let the Bucks take this to a game 7 without making it very physically difficult for their hosts, which makes getting points a viable betting opportunity in my humble opinion. Boston has covered 5 of their L/7 here in Milwaukee. BOSTON is 30-13 ATS versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots this season.BOSTON is 17-5 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game this season.BOSTON is 20-6 ATS as an underdog this season.BOSTON is 13-5 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season. MILWAUKEE is 8-18 ATS L/26 when playing against a team with a winning record.MILWAUKEE is 9-20 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or free throws/game.MILWAUKEE is 4-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season.MILWAUKEE is 3-11 ATS in home games off a road loss this season. Play on the Boston Celtics to cover |
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04-26-18 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 7.5 | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
TB is producing on offense of late and have scored 8 runs or more in 4 of their L/6 games and should be able to do some offensive damage vs the Orioles starting pitcher Bundy. Baltimore has been struggling to score of late, but they go against a pitcher in Archer that is struggling as is evident by a 6.58 ERA on the season. He is backed by a bullpen that owns a 6.11 ERA. I expect they should do enough damage here to help our OVER cause in this spot. Over is 6-2 in Bundys last 8 starts vs. American League East.Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Over is 4-0 in Bundys last 4 starts vs. Rays. Over is 5-0 in Rays last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-0 in Archers last 5 starts overall.Over is 7-1 in Rays last 8 overall.
TAMPA BAY is 18-5 OVER L/23 on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 with a combined average of 9.6 rpg scored. TAMPA BAY is 14-4 OVER L/18 vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season with a combined average of 9.9 rpg scored. MLBÂ teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (BALTIMORE) - poor AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more ), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) are 66-30 OVER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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04-26-18 | Mets v. Cardinals OVER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
NOAH SYNDERGAARD (R) vs. CARLOS MARTINEZ (R) |
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04-25-18 | Pacers +6.5 v. Cavs | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
The Pacers took game 1 in this series by DDs, and that woke the Cavs out of dead sleep, as they realized they were in trouble, if they did not leave everything on the proverbial table. The next three games in the series, has seen the Cavs play their hearts out, and win two games, but all three games were decided by 4 points or less. With that said, I'm betting 6.5 points offers value for the underdog in a series that is evenly matched . Upset alert in motion here. Indiana has covered 8 of their L/10 visits to Cleveland. CLEVELAND is 3-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. INDIANA is 18-6 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season.NDIANA is 16-5 ATS L/21 in road games when playing with 2 days rest . NBA team (INDIANA) - off a home loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 55-26 L/5 seasons 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Indiana Pacers to cover |
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04-25-18 | Mariners v. White Sox +138 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
FELIX HERNANDEZ (R) vs. JAMES SHIELDS (R)
Former Cy Young award winner Felix Hernandez is not as consistent as he was earlier in his career. Recently he has accumulated a ugly 7.80 ERA in 3 road starts this season, and does not deserve the lofty expectations the public continually expects of him. Don't get me wrong he is still better than 80% of the pitchers in this league, but at the moment in his current form , as a road fav is not a viable option. Yes, not even vs a struggling White Sox side. With that said, I'm betting on this being a good go against value line option this Wednesday afternoon, in the Windy City taking the South Siders to win on the moneyline. CHI WHITE SOX are 19-14 against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 dating back to last season. CHI WHITE SOX are 14-6 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game dating back to last season. MLB Home teams (CHI WHITE SOX) - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or better ) -AL, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings are 44-18 L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. MLB underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CHI WHITE SOX) - below average hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) -AL, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games are 43-29 L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chicago White Sox |
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04-24-18 | Heat +10.5 v. 76ers | 91-104 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The Heat are in a do or die situation. This is a proud group, that I'm betting Wil be primed to play tonight vs a talented but young Philadelphia group that is new at closing out play off series,something that is not as easy some might think. I know the Heat as a group understand that all they need is to come out here and give it their all and this series goes back to Miami where the Sixes will be under a lot more pressure.Like the old adage goes, It,s not over til the fat lady sings. |
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04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -2.5 | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
Boston was up 2-0 in this play off series entering the 2 game set in Milwaukee this past weekend , and blew a DD deficit last time out to lose 104-102 heart breaker to lose and now see the Bucks tie this series a 2-2. Right now the Bucks are converting   their shots at a high clip, but, their consistency all season long has been a question mark, and I'm betting they now revert back to their norms. Even though the Bucks have been shooting the lights out in the L/3 games of this series, that's not necessarily a good omen for them here tonight as MILWAUKEE is 9-20 ATS L/29 after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better. It must also be noted that the never say die blue collar Celtics are 18-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and  is 11-2 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. MILWAUKEE is 9-18 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season. MILWAUKEE is 18-30 ATS  off a home win dating back to last season.
NBA Home teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 32-4 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBAÂ Road teams vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 11-23 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 23-55 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boston to cover |
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04-24-18 | Red Sox -117 v. Blue Jays | 3-4 | Loss | -117 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. J.A. HAPP (L)
Rick Porcello the BoSox starter has looked to be in top form, to this point in the season, as is evident by recording a 4-0 mark and a stingy 1.40 ERA on the season, and a extremely miniscule 0.79 ERA in his two road starts. I'm betting on him out dueling the Blue Jays starter Happ, and notching the Red Sox 14th win in their L/19 games played at the Rogers Center in Toronto. Whether this is an anomaly or not it must be noted that BOSTON is 23-3 against the money line when playing on Tuesday over the last couple of seasons. TORONTO is 0-6 against the money line in home games off 2 straight road losses against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. MLB Home teams (TORONTO) - very good offensive team (5.4or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA3.50 or less) (AL), playing on Tuesday are just 29-65 L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boston Red Sox |
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04-23-18 | Thunder v. Jazz -4 | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
 The Utah Jazz have snatched momentum away in this series by winning game 2 in Oklahoma City and game 3 in Utah. I'm now betting the smash and grab their way to a win and cover in game 4 and take a commanding lead behind a hard core physical brand of basketball that has made them one of the best teams in the 2ND half of the season and dark horse championship contenders. I know the Thunder also played physically in game 3, but they were playing a Jazz side that thrives in this type of game as was evident by the Thunder coughing up the ball 15 times in the loss. In the 3 games in this series, the Jazz have outscored the Thunder 140-108 in the paint and this is where I'm betting this tilt will be won once again, in the trenches.
UTAH is 21-9 ATS L30 after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-19 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-25 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season and is 9-22 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-16 ATS vs. division opponents this season. Jazz Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 66-22 ATS L22 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road loss against a division rival are 36-156 22 seasons for a go against 72 % conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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04-23-18 | Nationals v. Giants -101 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
  Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 2.49 ERA) vs. Giants RH Chris Stratton (1-1, 2.22) Stratton in just his third career start,  shut out the Nationals on five hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 4-2 win while striking out 10 batters the last time he faced them. I'm betting he turns the trick here again this Monday.STRATTON is 6-0 against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game dating back to last season. STRATTON is 6-0 against the money line in home games over the last couple of seasons. WASHINGTON is 1-7 against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game this season.WASHINGTON is 6-11 L/17 against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. MLB Road teams (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two bad teams (38% to 46%), in April games are 13-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the SF Giants to win on the money-line |
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04-23-18 | Padres v. Rockies -164 | 13-5 | Loss | -164 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
BRYAN MITCHELL (R) vs. CHAD BETTIS (R) Chad Bettis is in top form and has compiled a minuscule 0.90 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill and gets the nod here again in this spot.Rockies are 5-2 in Bettis' last 7 starts vs. Padres. Padres are 0-4 in Mitchells last 4 starts. MITCHELL is 0-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.200. Padres are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.Padres are 8-20 in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Rockies are 23-8 in Bettis' last 31 home starts. BETTIS team when he starts is 15-3 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record. BETTIS is 17-4 against the money line when the total is 10 or higher over the last few seasons. MLB underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (SAN DIEGO) - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or better) -NL, ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games are 14-80 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. MLB underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (SAN DIEGO) - below average hitting team (AVG or less .255) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better ) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start are 19-91 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. MLB favorites with a money line of -150 or more (COLORADO) - with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL are 41-7 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Colorado Rockies to win on the money line |
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04-23-18 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets +100 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
GOALTENDERS: WASHINGTON - BRADEN HOLTBY, COLUMBUS - SERGEI BOBROVSKY The Capitals have won 3 straight games in this series after losing the first 2 games of this series , but I'm betting the Blue Jackets don't bow out of these play offs without one last grasp of air. Look for and expect a game 7. Note these game historically in no way guarantee the team with momentum wins this game. Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading LLWWW irrespective of site order (Washington) has the following best-of-7 playoff series: the Washington Capitals have a Game 6 record of 7-8. WASHINGTON is 9-18 ATS when attempting to close out a playoff series since 1996. NHL Home teams against the money line (COLUMBUS) - after allowing 4 goals or more in a loss to a division rival against opponent after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals are 32-9 L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Road Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (WASHINGTON) - off 3 consecutive wins against division rivals, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 12-30 L/22 seasons for a 72% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Columbus Blue Jackets to win on the moneyline |
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04-22-18 | Nationals v. Dodgers OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
JEREMY HELLICKSON (R) vs. ALEX WOOD (L) The Nationals offense has averaged 5.9 rpg  on the road this season., while the bullpen has registered a hefty 7.50 ERA. Alex Wood the Dodgers starter owns a bloated 6.00 ERA in his last three trips to the hill and looks like cannon fodder in his current from.  Meanwhile the Dodgers offense has done their best work vs right handed starters like Hellickson averaging 5.4 rpg . Hellickson (1.713 WHIP) has had limited work this season but his L3 starts dating back to last season have seen 14,15,12 combined runs scored in his starts and this tilt looks to be another high scoring affair . LA DODGERS are 9-0 OVER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse this season with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored.WOOD is 13-1 OVER with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored.LA DODGERS are 10-2 OVER against right-handed starters this season with a coined 11.2 rpg scored. PLAY over |
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04-22-18 | Raptors v. Wizards +2.5 | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
The Wizards' surprised me with a top tier performance Friday night and took a victory vs Toronto. Now with a chance to even its first-round series with the Raptors on Sunday at Capital One Arena I'm expecting them to come out here rejuvenated and very motivated to perform behind their all star back court duo of Wall and Beal. The Wizards outshot the Raptors 55.3 percent to 45.1 percent in a very physical game that featured several altercations. Look for the home town crowd in DC to be the difference maker here tonight. NBA  Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, on Sunday games are 28-7 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.   Casey is 14-28 ATS L/42 in all playoff games as the coach of TORONTONBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TORONTO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are just 39-76 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate for bettors.  Play on Washington to cover ( LATE STEAM)
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04-22-18 | Warriors v. Spurs +7 | 90-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 3-0 So it' do or die for the Spurs. I don' know if they can snatch this game outright but I' am betting they wont go down  without a fight.In their last trip to the hardwood hc Popovich was not on the sidelines as his wife had just passed away. I'm sure this contributed to less than focused effort from his players. Now with elimination on board and the team playing hard for their grieving coach a cover becomes a high probability betting option in my humble opinion. GOLDEN STATE is 8-18 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins this season. NBAFavorites (GOLDEN STATE) - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. Are 14-40 ATS L5 seasons for a 74% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on San Antonio to cover |
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04-22-18 | Celtics +5 v. Bucks | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 4- BOS Leads 2-1 |
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04-21-18 | Thunder v. Jazz -4 | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 37 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm going against the zig zag theory tonight and backing the jazz at home after ending a 7 game losing streak on the road vs Oklahoma evening this series series 1-1. The Jazz were one of the strongest teams in the league in the 2nd half of the season while oklama despite of being talented were highly inconsistent playing like championship contenders one night and chumps the next as has been the case in this play off series. I still like the thunders talent ,but playing here in Utah is not an easy  task, as is evident by the Jazz  impressive 28-13 home record. Meanwhile, the Thunder are barely above .500 on the road and look like they had some momentum snatched away from them in game 2 which was evident on the face of the players at the end of that last tilt. UTAH is 14-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-26 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-22 ATS  after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-18 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. UTAH is 16-7 ATS  after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 63-26 Ats L5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA  team vs the money line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off a home loss against a division rival, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 11-26 L5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Jazz to cover |
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04-21-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 111 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
CLAYTON RICHARD (L) vs. ZACK GODLEY (R) |
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04-20-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Bucks | 92-116 | Loss | -107 | 50 h 51 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - BOS Leads 2-0 The Celtics are a never say die side, and I've been back and forth in my thoughts on them of late, but one thing for sure is this is  a side, that just won't lay down for anyone, no matter how short handed or banged up they are . Their truly a blue collar team that Bean town can be proud of.  With that said, I'm betting they fight til the end here tonight and get us the cover, vs a viable but very inconsistent Bucks team, that looked drained in their game 2 of this series losing in ugly fashion. (120-106). MILWAUKEE is 2-11 ATS  in home games off a road loss this season. MILWAUKEE is 9-22 ATS as a home favorite this season.BOSTON is 12-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season. BOSTON is 18-4 ATS L/22 in road games against Central division opponents. MILWAUKEE is 13-22 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and is 17-31 ATS  L/50 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days . NBA Road teams vs. the money line (BOSTON) - off 3 or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road loss by 10 points or more are 35-7 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Boston to cover |
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04-20-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | 8-5 | Win | 102 | 23 h 34 m | Show | |
MARCO ESTRADA (R) vs. SONNY GRAY (R) |
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04-19-18 | Marlins +1.5 v. Brewers | 3-12 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
DILLON PETERS (L) vs. CHASE ANDERSON (R)
Chase Anderson the Brewers starter is 3-12 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in his career. Marlins are 4-1 in Peters' last 5 starts. MIAMI is 26-16 L/42 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. MLB Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or more ), in April games are 28-51 L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Home teams against a 1.5 run line (MILWAUKEE) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA 4.50 or better ), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL are 13-49 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Miami Marlins to cover +1.5 on the runline |
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04-19-18 | 76ers -2 v. Heat | 128-108 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1 Philadelphia had their 17 game losing streak abruptly end last time out, vs the Heat in game 2 of this series by a 113-103 count as favs, and looked like they had exerted to much energy in their opening play off tilt, exhibiting irrational exuberance. Despite of the young, and very talented Sixer's having limited play off experience , I'm expecting they temper their excitement going forward and pace themselves better. With that said,   I'm betting on this talented group to bounce back on the road and notch a victory here in game 3. PHILADELPHIA is 31-13 ATS L/44 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more  of their attempts. MIAMI is 2-12 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season. PHILADELPHIA is 35-21 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points and 25-14 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. NBA team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more are 33-10 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin of victory coming by 4.4 ppg. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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04-19-18 | Pirates +104 v. Phillies | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
JAMESON TAILLON (R) vs. JAKE ARRIETA (R) Taillon the Pirates starter has an advantage vs a Philadelphia side that has struggled against right handed starters this season, averaging just 3.7 rpg on a .207 team BA. He gets the nod here tonight. Pirates are 7-0 in Taillons last 7 starts vs. National League East.Pirates are 4-0 in Taillons last 4 road starts. Pirates starter TAILLON is 11-3 l/14 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 . ARRIETA is 8-13 L/21 against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Pirates are 9-2 in their last 11 road games.Phillies are 22-45 in their last 67 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 3 starts are 33-17 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates to win on the moneyline |
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04-18-18 | Red Sox v. Angels -118 | 9-0 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
 Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (3-0, 1.83 ERA) vs. Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (2-0, 1.69) The Bosox starting pitcher Porcello has looked strong out of the gate this season, but is 6-7 with a 5.67 ERA in 16 career trips to the hill against Los Angeles and despite some quality starts recently at Angel Stadium is just 1-4 with a 5.82 ERA in six career . Note: The Red Sox are 0-9 L/9 when Rick Porcello starts as a dog when they won in his last start. Angels are 5-0 in Skaggs' last 5 starts.
Red Sox are 4-9 in Porcellos last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. I know the Halos got smacked around last night when Japanese Phenom Ohtani faced his first real challenge, but I now expect a red face angels squad to be ready to rebound.The Angels are 13-0 L/13  as a money-line  favorite past the first game of a series after their starter pitched less than 3 innings last game. MLB Home teams (LA ANGELS) - excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 0.800 or less over his last 3 starts are 32-13  L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Angels to win on the moneyline |
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04-18-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -146 | 4-3 | Loss | -146 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
Giants RH Chris Stratton (1-1, 2.60 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks LH Robbie Ray (2-0, 5.74) The Dbacks have been playing great ball  at home to this point in the season, recording a  6-1 overall record along with a 4 straight in the desert. Despite of the DBacks starting pitcher struggling a bit in his first two starts, he has performed well in the past vs the Giants, as is evident by a 4-1 record along  with a 2.82 ERA in nine outings. Ray was  3-0 with a 1.48 ERA in four starts vs the Giants last sseason while striking out 29 in 24 1/3 innings  He goes against a SF side, that  has lost four in a row scoring fewer than two runs in three of the losses. Note: The Diamondbacks are 15-0 with Robbie Ray when he had more strike outs than hits allowed in his last start, and he is not a dog of more than 140.RAY is 15-2 L/17 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record .RAY is 14-1 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 0-15 on the moneyline on the road off a road game when they won the last two games their starter started.( Srtatton has done this) SAN FRANCISCO is 2-15 L/17 against the money line in road games vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better dating back to last season. MLB favorites with a money line of -150 or more (ARIZONA) - with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games are 108-33 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (ARIZONA) - good NL offensive team (4.7 or more  runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less ), after a game where they had 4 or less hits are 49-9 L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Arizona DBacks
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04-18-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -4 | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - OKC Leads 1-0 The Utah Jazz played tremendous basketball down the stretch to get into the post season, and were one of the better teams in the 2nd half. They did however , lose their finale, and the first game off this series and  its always a concern a team may have peaked to early , and that after that kind of impressive run and a emotional letdown scenario  could effect the teams cohesiveness at the worst possible time. You have to remember despite of all the accolades the Jazz have gotten from the media and pundits of late, they did have long stretches during this campaign, where they were unable to garner wins despite of their top tier defense. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City , despite of being chalk full of talent with George, Anthony, and Westbrook, were highly inconsistent this season, but when they did play well, looked like possible championship contenders, as was the case in game 1 of this series, and  when they beat the Rockets in their own back yard, 108-102 on April 7 as 4 point dogs and back in late March when they went into Toronto and beat a very good Raptors side by a 132-125 count. From a matchup perspective , many believe that the Jazz, are the superior side, but I'm not one of them, and game 1 was an indicator of this . I feel the Thunder actually matchup very well, vs Utah, especially here on their own home court on a beatable line, especially with the books sticking to guns on the number. Note: Oklahoma City is a perfect 7-0 SU at home in this series over the last few seasons, and have won 11 of the L/13 meetings and the last 4 meetings overall, with two of the  last three by DD deficits. In the last game the final 116-108 score was not indicative of how much better the Thunder looked in this matchup. With that said, I'll back the Thunder here at home one more time in this series and hold judgement on backing them on the road depending on the line. UTAH is 5-17 ATS L/22  in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last few  seasons.  The Utah Jazz are 0-22 ATS L/22 as a dog vs a team that has averaged 45-plus rebounds and more than 38.5 points in the paint. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 19-43 ATS L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.  Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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04-18-18 | Royals +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 5-15 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
Royals RH Ian Kennedy (1-1, 1.00 ERA) vs. Blue Jays LH J.A. Happ (2-1, 3.94) Kennedy has allowed a total of two runs in 18 innings, but his bull pen his let him down or he would perfect so far. With a little support here or a complete game we have a value RL with taking the Royals hurler this afternoon. I know the Royals have lost 7 straight, so I'm not 100% on the SU win, even tough that's possible, and will instead take the runline option. The Blue Jays are 0-6Â SU in the last game of a series as a 140+ favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they scored first. Toronto was an average of minus 180 on the moneyline in these six multiple-run losses and in each of their last three they were shutout. Play on the KC Royals on the RL +1.5 |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Blazers | 111-102 | Win | 100 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 - NOR Leads 1-0 I was very impressed by the way the Pelicans played down the stretch, and was once again impressed by their tenaciousness effort in game 1 of this series , when they pulled off the road upset by a 97-95 score. I do know the Blazers are now in a must win situation ,and the lines-makers are sticking tight to their initial line projections. However, despite of the lines-makers stance I still feel we have value with a underdog that matches up well vs the home favorite. Look for top tier  New Orleans'  guard Jrue Holiday and forward Anthony Davis to trump Blazers back curt duo of  Damian Lilliard and CJ McCollum . NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS  in road games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season. NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS  L/21  in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game.NEW ORLEANS is 27-15 ATS in road games this season. NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS off a road win this season. The Pelicans are 17-0 as a road dog with more than one day of rest after holding their opponent to under 39.5% shooting from the field. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Tuesday nights are 42-13 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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04-17-18 | Red Sox +154 v. Angels | 10-1 | Win | 154 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Red Sox LH David Price (1-1, 2.40 ERA) vs. Angels RH Shohei Ohtani (2-0, 2.08) On a cold night last time out Price said he lost feeling in his fingertips, and was not in top form, but prior to that allowed just seven hits with 10 strikeouts over 14 innings in his previous two outings and is now motivated for a big time performance  opposite Halos Japanese Phenom Ohtani . Both these quality pitchers face strong offenses, but Price according to my pitcher vs offense power rankings suggests we have enough value to take the  road underdog. The Angels have the best run differential in baseball at plus-48 with the Red Sox second at plus-42. PRICE team when he starts  is 35-13 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game.. whether this is an anomaly or not its still worth mentioning that  BOSTON is 22-3 against the money line when playing on Tuesday dating back to last season.Red Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 games on natural surface .Angels are 2-12 in their last 14 games following an off day. Angels are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.LA ANGELS are 5-16 L/21 against the money line vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game The Red Sox are 6-0 on the moneyline L/6 in the first game of a series with rest off a home game in which they had a comeback win, winning by an average of 7.0 runs per game. Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the moneyline |
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04-17-18 | White Sox +157 v. A's | 2-10 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
White Sox RH Miguel Gonzalez (0-2, 8.68 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Trevor Cahill (2017: 4-3, 4.93) Neither of these pitchers inspire me. One has struggled and the other has been in the minors to this point in the season. The edge however I'm betting comes via the rested starter Gonzalez who has not pitched in 8 days, and will be very fresh for this tilt. I know the As are expecting a sell out tonight because of a huge promotion, but this only guarantees a festive atmosphere, that both teams will feed off. I have enough edge here to take a swing for the fences via viable underdog investment situation. Athletics are 0-5 in Cahills last 5 starts vs. American League Central.Athletics are 2-11 in their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Athletics are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. CHI WHITE SOX are 17-7 OVER  L/24 in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game on the season dating back to last year. The Athletics are 0-13 on the moneyline as a home 120+ favorite after playing as a home favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not a series opener. Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the moneyline |
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04-17-18 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | 106-120 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Much to my surprise the Milwaukee Bucks came out and showed me they have some cohunes in game 1 of this series behind Giannis Antetokounmpo (35 points) and Khris Middleton (31). They played soft for much of the season, despite of being a talented group. But now they look like they have suddenly woken up, and are in a fighting mood. That's not a good thing for a banged up Celtics group that bases their current successes on hard work, as their key offensive weapon Kyrie Irving is out of the play offs because of injury. The season has taken it toll on the never say die Celtics, and last time out they exerted a great deal of energy in trying to dispose of the Bucs, despite of  finally winning in OT. I'm betting we see the effects of their exhausting work ethic here tonight as they play this tilt with very little gas left in the tank. I know the Bucks were a little sloppy in game 1, but if they clean things up, I won't be surprised if they come out of this with a SU win and more importantly for us a cover.   Road team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings.Underdog is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings    MILWAUKEE is 15-4 ATS L/19 off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last few seasons. BOSTON is 5-15 ATS L20 in home games after playing 2 consecutive home games dating back to last season. BOSTON is 4-13 ATS  L/17 in home games after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games.  NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 71-29 L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 72-26 ATS L/22 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Milwaukee to cover |
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04-17-18 | Marlins v. Yankees OVER 9 | 9-1 | Win | 102 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Marlins LH Jarlin Garcia (0-0, 1.13 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (2-1, 5.19) The Yankees bats are on fire and have won their second straight by getting 15 hits and going 7 for 18 with runners in scoring position during a 12-1 victory on Monday.Miami allowed double-digit runs for the third time and double-digit hits for the sixth time this season, and I won't be surprised of the Yankees explode here again tonight eclipse this Total all by themselves. Note: NY YANKEES are 10-1 OVER vs. NL teams scoring 3.5 or less runs/game on the season like Miami, with the combined average score of 12.6 rpg getting scored.MIAMI is 10-1 OVER in road games after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. NY YANKEES are 11-1 OVER in home games after scoring 9 runs or more with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored.  MLB Road teams (MIAMI) - cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 10 games are 36-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 8-2-2 in Marlins last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-0-1 in Marlins last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 10-1-1 in Yankees last 12 overall.Over is 10-4 in Yankees last 14 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Play OVER |
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04-16-18 | Astros -118 v. Mariners | 1-2 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (0-2, 4.20 ERA) vs. Mariners LH James Paxton (0-1, 5.74) Two viable pitching options go head to head tonight in Seattle as Dallas Keuchel and James Paxton take to the hill for their respective teams. But according to my pitcher vs opposition batting order power rankings the Astros match up well vs the Mariners. Note: Astros are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle and are 4-0 in Keuchels last 4 starts vs. Mariners. Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Astros are 13-4 in their last 17 vs. American League West.Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Mariners are 2-6 in Paxtons last 8 starts.Mariners are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and are 1-7 L/8 at home vs a winning side.Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. KEUCHEL is 8-1 L/9 against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better),HOUSTON is 43-14 L/57 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 and is 29-12 L/41 against the money line in road games against division opponents. PAXTON team when he starts  is 13-20 L/33 against the money line in night games. MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (HOUSTON) - with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings are 44-9 L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Houston Astros to win on the moneyline |
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04-16-18 | Heat +7 v. 76ers | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 Philadelphia was the hottest team in the NBA down the stretch and have won 17 straight games. However, despite of that my own head to head power rankings suggest that there is value with taking points with a very physical blue collar team, in a play off game vs a side, that I can best describe as very talented but lacking grit and play off experience. The NBA post season can be very different from reg season play, especially from a physical stand point,  and that's what I'm betting on tonight .Look for  the nasty and tenacious Hassan Whiteside who will get increased minutes and inside presence of 7 footer Kelly Olynyk to be the difference maker in a cover for our chosen side. I know the Sixers came out on fire and  took game 1 , but Im betting game 2 will be a different story from a ATS perspective . Heat are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game , which was the case in game 1 of this series. MIAMI is 24-9 ATS L/33 when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 11-2 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 15-4 ATS  L/19 as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Heat are 19-0 SU/ATS off a loss in which their opponent shot 50% or better from beyond the arc and it is after the All-Star break , which happened in game 1 of this series. Play on the Miami Heat to cover |
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04-15-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1 The Utah Jazz played tremendous basketball down the stretch to get into the post season, and were one of the better teams in the 2nd half. They did however , lose their finale, and its always a concern a team may have peaked to early , and that after that kind of impressive run and a emotional letdown scenario  could effect the teams cohesiveness at the worst possible time. You have to remember despite of all the accolades the Jazz have gotten from the media and pundits of late, they did have long stretches during this campaign, where they were unable to garner wins despite of their top tier defense. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City , despite of being chalk full of talent with George, Anthony, and Westbrook, were highly inconsistent this season, but when they did play well, looked like possible championship contenders, as was the case when they beat the Rockets in their own back yard, 108-102 on April 7 as 4 point dogs and back in late March when they went into Toronto and beat a very good Raptors side by a 132-125 count. From a matchup perspective , many believe that the Jazz, are the superior side, but I'm not one of them. I feel the Thunder actually matchup very well, vs Utah, especially here on their own home court on a beatable line. Note: Oklahoma City is a perfect 6-0 SU at home in this series over the last few seasons, and have won 10 of the L/12 meetings and the last 3 meetings overall, the last two by DD deficits. UTAH is 5-16 ATS L/21  in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last few  seasons. The Jazz were a sub  par 20-21 road team this season, while the Thunder played their best hoops at home where they were 27-14. The Utah Jazz are 0-21 ATS L/21 as a dog vs a team that has averaged 45-plus rebounds and more than 38.5 points in the paint NBA Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (UTAH) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a road loss against a division rival are 154-35 L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 6.9 ppg. NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UTAH) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 19-42 for a go against  69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover |
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04-15-18 | Pirates -135 v. Marlins | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Miami is expected to start, right-hander Jose Urena (0-2, 5.06 ERA), against Pirates right-hander Ivan Nova (1-1, 5.19 ERA). Nova, Pittsburgh's Opening Day starter, is off a top tier effort vs the  Chicago Cubs' in their  home opener Tuesday notching a  8-5 win, allowing three runs and seven hits in seven innings, with no walks It was Nova's 11th career start of at least seven innings without allowing a walk .Nova's only two career appearances against Miami, both starts in 2017, were victories in which he did not allow a run and he gets the nod again here today. MIAMI is 10-31 L/41 against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last couple of seasons.NOVA is 21-7 l/28 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150. The Pittsburgh Pirates are 15-0 SU as a favorite after they shut out their opponent and it is not a series opener. MLB Home teams (MIAMI) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less ) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or worse ), in April games are 27-49 L/5 seasons for a go against  65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates on the moneyline |
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04-15-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -3.5 | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 1 |
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04-15-18 | Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 6.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (0-1, 1.35 ERA) vs. Red Sox LH Chris Sale (1-0, 1.06) Boston's bats are on fire averaging 8.9 runs while taking six of the last seven and should do just fine today vs a decent pitcher in Bundy and could easily eclipse this number all by themselves. Bundy has not done that well at Fenway and is  3-4 with a 5.01 ERA lifetime against Boston there. I know Chris Sale the Red Sox ace is always hard to face for any team, but I expect the Orioles to do just enough damage to help this combined score eclipse this total. BOSTON is 17-5 OVER  L/22 in home games after scoring 10 runs or more over the last few seasons. Over is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 road games.Over is 9-2 in Bundys last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 7-2 in Orioles last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 6-0-1 in Red Sox last 7 overall.Over is 4-0 in Sales last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 7-0 in Sales last 7 starts vs. American League East.Over is 7-0 in Sales last 7 starts vs. American League East. MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (BALTIMORE) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 31-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Blazers | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 2 New Orleans has roared into the play offs with 5 straight wins, including a 122-98 beat down of San Antonio in the last game of the season. They are currently playing with a lot of confidence and must respected here as underdogs. Pelicans HC Gentry is 17-4 ATS  in road games after scoring 120 points or more . Meanwhile, Portland won their L/game of the season but prior to  that lost 4 straight, and were playing inconsistent hoops . I'm betting on Pelicans Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo clamping down on Lillard and McCollum with a  suffocating brand of defense and for this game to be closely contested with the points proving to be golden. Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Pelicans are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS win.Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.Trail Blazers are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 Conference Quarterfinals games. NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS L/12 versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season. NEW ORLEANS is 23-11 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season. NEW ORLEANS is 26-15 ATS in road games this season. Play on the New Orleans Pelicans to cover |
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04-14-18 | Rangers +1.5 v. Astros | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rangers LH Mike Minor (1-1, 2.53 ERA) vs. Astros RH Charlie Morton (2-0, 0.00) Charlie Morton is a very good hurler, but he has a history of some below average day time starts in his career as these following numbers suggest. MORTON team is just  17-37  against the money line in day games in his career. Meanwhile, the Rangers starting hurler Minor split his first two starts but has held opponents to a .143 batting average and struck out 12 in 10 2/3 innings while walking just four and is a viable hurler to back on a value RL. MLB Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +165) (TEXAS) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better), after scoring 2 runs or less are 91-27 L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Texas Rangers on the +1.5 RL |
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04-14-18 | Spurs v. Warriors OVER 210 | 92-113 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 54 m | Show | |
San Antonio's defense did not look good towards the tail end of the season and allowed 105 or more points in 7 off their L/10 games overall including 122 to New Orleans in their season finale. Over is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 road games.Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games. Meanwhile, Golden State also struggled on defense for long stretches this season, ranking 18th overall allowing 107.5 ppg . Their saving grace was and always will be their offense , which was ranked first in the league this season (113.5 ppg) , behind the 5th fastest pace ( 99.6). GOLDEN STATE L/20 games when playing against a team with a winning record have seen a combined average of 218.3 ppg go on the board. SAN ANTONIO is 9-0 OVER in road games in April games dating back to last season.GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 OVER L/17 in all playoff games with the total combined average of 225.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a playoff game, in the 1rst game of a playoff series are 24-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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04-14-18 | Avalanche v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
 Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - NAS Leads 1-0 |
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04-14-18 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Predators | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - NAS Leads 1-0 In game one of this series Colorado showed me  that they are every bit Nashville's equal for about 2 1/2 periods Thursday night, before falling apart late for a 5-2 loss.The Avalanche's physical play , speed  and fore checking make them a viable back to side on a value puck line. QUOTE: "It shows us we're right there with them," Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said. "I think the first two periods we outplayed them for big parts of it. We've got a big one here on Saturday. We're going to try to steal that one and get them back to the Pepsi Center where we're really good." END QUOTE: COLORADO is 11-4 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 5 or more goals this season and is 12-7 ATS revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 3 goals or more this season.NASHVILLE is 1-5 ATS  in home games after 2 straight wins by 2 goals or more this season. Play on Colorado on the puckline +1.5 |
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04-14-18 | Devils +1.5 v. Lightning | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - TAM Leads 1-0 NJ lost the first game of this series, by a 5-2 count, but it would be a mistake for anyone to read to deeply into that final score and try to associate the level of competitiveness between these two teams. NJ is every bit as fast as the Bolts, and look far from being out of place in this series. Previous to that loss the Devils has won 3 straight meetings in this series, and I'm betting they wont be easy outs here today. Devils are 9-2 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Devils are 6-2 in their last 8 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.Devils are 13-6 in their last 19 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. NEW JERSEY is 6-2 ATS   in road games against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game.NEW JERSEY is 11-4 ATS L/15 in road games as a # 4 seed in the playoffs since 1996. Play on the NJ Devils on the puckline +1.5 |
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04-13-18 | Rockies v. Nationals UNDER 9 | 2-1 | Win | 107 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rockies LH Kyle Freeland (0-2, 5.56 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Tanner Roark (1-0, 4.50) The Nationals are struggling to score runs, and averaging just 2.7 rpg at home this season, and even against an average pitcher look out of sync at the moment. I'm expecting more of the same ineptness today vs Freeland of the Rockies. Meanwhile, Colorado will go against a right handed pitcher in Roarke . The Rockies bats have struggled against orthodox hurlers, this season, averaging just 4.2 rpg via Mendoza line average hitting ( .248). More of the same struggles look to be on todays agenda according to my cross reference power ranking projections Under is 10-3-1 in Roarks last 14 starts overall.Under is 6-2 in Roarks last 8 home starts.Under is 21-4-3 in Nationals last 28 vs. National League West.Under is 19-8-3 in Freelands last 30 starts overall.Under is 6-2 in Rockies last 8 vs. National League East.Under is 6-1-3 in Freelands last 10 starts with 4 days of rest. FREELAND is 11-2 UNDER with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) with a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored. WASHINGTON is 21-8 UNDER L/29 against NL West opponents dating back to last seasons witch a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored.WASHINGTON is 16-3 UNDER after 6 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.2 rpg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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04-12-18 | Angels v. Royals +127 | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
Angels RH Nick Tropeano (2016: 3-2, 3.56 ERA) vs. Royals RH Ian Kennedy (1-0, 0.75) Having two way Japanese star Shohei Ohtani in their lineup the Angels are fast becoming a public team. He homered in the first three games he started as the designated hitter, but didn't smack a bleacher smash last time out. He is still however,  hitting .364 with a 1.190 one-base-plus-slugging percentage and has already become the talk  of MLB baseball fans and bettors alike. Because of this the Halos are now a public team, which sometimes could taint their lines , which I;m betting is the case tonight, especially with Royals right-hander Ian Kennedy on the hills for the Royals. The RH, is 1-0 along with a 0.75 ERA in his first two starts. In two starts against the Angels last season, Kennedy was 2-0 with an 0.64 ERA and get the nod again. Angels are 0-5 in Tropeanos last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Angels are 3-10 in their last 13 vs. American League Central.Angels are 6-13 in their last 19 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Angels are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Kansas City. Play on the KC Royals to win on the moneyline |
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04-12-18 | Rockies v. Nationals UNDER 9 | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Rockies RH Chad Bettis (1-0, 2.53 ERA) vs. Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (1-0, 1.59) Gonzalez (1-0, 1.59) continues to pitch well  has picked up where he left off in last year's regular season. He took a no-decision a 3-2 loss to the New York Mets, allowing just one  run in 5 1/3 innings on six hits with some solid work.Gonzalez (4-0, 3.58) is unbeaten in five career starts against the Colorado Rockies. I'm betting the Rockies struggle against them here again today. Meanwhile, Right-hander Chad Bettis (1-0, 2.53) was solid for a second straight start, allowing judt one run on just four hits in a no-decision. QUOTE: "There's going to be a consistency to Chad's games," manager Bud Black told the Post. "I suspect Chad's starts, if he makes all 33 or 34, there will be less variability in his outings." END QUOTE: Bettis is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA in four games -- two starts vs the Nats and should supply stability in this spot.BETTIS is 9-1 UNDER ( vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game like th eNats, with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. COLORADO is 20-8 UNDER  L/28 in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last couple of seasons with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored. WASHINGTON is 15-3 UNDER L/18 after 6 or more consecutive home games with a combined average of 6.2 rpg scored. WASHINGTON is 20-8 UNDER  L/28 against NL West opponents with a combined average of 7.7 rpg going on the board. Under is 5-0 in Bettis' last 5 starts vs. National League East.Under is 3-1-1 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 8-1 in Bettis' last 9 starts during game 1 of a series.Under is 23-4-5 in Nationals last 32 during game 1 of a series.Under is 20-4-3 in Nationals last 27 vs. National League West.Under is 6-0-1 in Gonzalezs last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.Under is 9-3-2 in Nationals last 14 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Play on the UNDER |
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04-11-18 | Jazz v. Blazers -2.5 | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
The No. 3 seed in the Western Conference is on the line Wednesday, when the Utah Jazz visit the Portland Trail Blazers. the Jazz have been playing great ball, but "Portland is a really tough place to play," Jazz coach Quin Snyder said during Tuesday's postgame press conference. "It is an important game from a seeding standpoint. So no matter what or how each team has preformed of late, it matters very little in under these circumstances. It must also be noted that the Jazz played last night and really revved things up against the Warriors, beating them by wide DD margin . I'm sure their now on tired legs which is not necessarily a good omen, as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing with no  rest. I'm betting home court advantage will be the difference maker here tonight. PORTLAND is 11-2 ATS L/13 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) and 13-3 ATS L/16 versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots.PORTLAND is 19-6-1  ATS L/26 as a favorite this season and 12-3 ATS L/15  in home games vs. division opponents . Favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. NBA Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (PORTLAND) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 56-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by 9.7 ppg. NBA Underdogs (UTAH) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are just 95-151 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Portland Blazers to cover |
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04-11-18 | Kings +120 v. Golden Knights | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 57 h 55 m | Show | |
Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 1 The Vegas Knights had a great inaugural season, but the reg season and post season are two different animals. This is the Knights   first-ever playoff experience, and going against a former Stanley Cup championship team, full of veterans with multiple Stanley Cup rings, is asking this group for a monumental achievement in my humble opinion. The Knights might grab a game or two in this series, but I'm betting the Kings come out here and set the tone behind a big heavy group that allowed the fewest goals league-wide, have the season’s best penalty kill numbers, and averaged the eighth-fewest shots-against per game. LOS ANGELES is 16-11 ATS   in road games against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game this season. Play on the LA Kings to win on the moneyline |
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04-11-18 | Nuggets v. Wolves -3 | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
The Denver Nuggets visit the land of lakes this Wednesday night to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, in a do or die battle that will see the winner advance to the postseason while the loser heads to the wasteland of the offseason . From a matchup perspective, I feel these teams are fairly evenly matched, but home court advantage is definitely important factor that I'm betting favors the Wolves. I also feel strongly that Denver has had to exert a lot of energy in their quest for a post season appearance than the Wolves, and are exhausted entering this Thunder dome confrontation. That was never more evident than in the Nuggets last tilt, when they clawed their way back from a 11-point, second-half deficit and somehow notched a 88-82 win while holding Portland to just 13 points in the fourth quarter thanks to a massive physical assault that I know took its toll on this squad.
NBA Underdogs vs the money line (DENVER) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 90 points or less are 6-48 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 85% for bettors losing SU by 9.3 ppg. NBA Underdogs (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 95-151 ATS L/22 seasons for a 62% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play on the Minnesota Wolves to cover |
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04-11-18 | Mets v. Marlins +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Mets RH Zack Wheeler (2017: 3-7, 5.21 ERA) vs. Marlins LH Jarlin Garcia (0-0, 1.80) After allowing two runs in 10 innings of relief, Garcia will be joining the Marlins rotation. He will be making his first big league start. A year ago, the 25-year-old paced the Marlins in appearances with 68 and is a viable MLB pitcher is must be respected on this value RL. Meanwhile, the Mets will recall Wheeler from Triple-A Las Vegas on Wednesday to make a spot start for Jason Vargas, who is rehabbing from hand surgery. He will face a under rated Marlins lineup, with three .300 hitters . Left fielder Derek Dietrich is hitting .327, rookie third baseman Brian Anderson is hitting .317, and second baseman Starlin Castro is batting .304. Marlins are 21-9 in their last 30 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.Mets are 1-4 in Wheelers last 5 road starts. Manager MATTINGLY is 21-13 against the money line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of MIAMI. Play on Miami on the RL +1.5 |
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04-10-18 | Warriors v. Jazz -7 | 79-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
The Golden State Warriors are limping into the post season and not looking as cohesive as they have in the past, as is evident by losing 9 of their L/16 games overall, and have  failed to cover 13 of their L/19 overall, thanks to a lack of defensive prowess and recently allowed 126 points in back-to-back losses to Indiana and New Orleans. . Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz have really progressed this season, and  rank 13th in the NBA in offensive efficiency (108.5) and lead the league in defensive efficiency (97.9) since mid-January. In recent head to head matchups vs the Dubs the Jazz have produced two straight lopsided beat downs including delivering a  129-99 proverbial  boot in the face in the champs last visit to Salt Lake City on Jan. 27. A repeat is not out of the question. The  Jazz despite of a guaranteed play off spot can still move up and grab the No.3 seed from Portland who are just one game ahead of them in the standings, and are a viable betting option here at home with momentum and motivation as contributing positive factors. I know its never easy betting against the Warriors, but right now they look asleep at the proverbial wheel and are playing with little or no urgency as a group. GOLDEN STATE is 2-13 ATS L/15 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) .UTAH is 12-3 ATS  L/15 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game . ( Utah 112 Opp 99.6) NBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more, off a road win against a division rival are 2-28  L/21 seasons with the average margin loss coming by 9.9 ppg. NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, after a cover as a double digit favorite are 20-55 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors on the blind. Play on the Utah Jazz to cover |
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04-10-18 | Padres v. Rockies -152 | 5-2 | Loss | -152 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Padres LH Joey Lucchesi (0-0, 2.79 ERA) vs. Rockies LH Tyler Anderson (0-0, 7.56) Anderson the Rockies starter did not have good opening day appearance, but bounced back in a big way in his last effort, , scattering four hits over six scoreless innings in a no decision. He looked great last time out, and get my support in this spot vs a inconsistent Fathers offense. Note: Anderson owns a 1-1 record and 1.50 ERA in four career starts against the Padres. Padres are 41-84 in their last 125 road games.Padres are 22-46 in their last 68 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Padres are 9-23 in their last 32 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Padres are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in Colorado. Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline |
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