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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-07-16 | Southern Illinois v. Louisville -21 | 51-74 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Louisville (7:00 EST). The 5-3 Southern Illinois Salukis are in Louisville, Kentucky to take on the 7-1 Cardinals and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Both teams come into this one having won two in a row. Southern Illinois shot 48 percent to beat Texas Southern last time out. Defenisvely the Salukis looked poor though, conceding 52.9 percent shooting, including 36 percent from range. They were also outrebounded by ten. Armon Fletcher was a standout with 18 points. Southern Illinois averages 76.6 PPG, while conceding 74.6. After trailing by a point at half time to Grand Canyon last time out, the Cardinals would get their act together in the second stanza and pull away for the victory. Deng Adel had 15 points. Louisville averages 75.0 PPG, but allows just 59.4. That’s 15th in the country. I’ll point out that Southern Illinois is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while Louisville is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as a home fav of 18.5 to 24 points, including 2-0 ATS this season. After the scare last time out, I’m expecting Louisville to come in much more focused and expect it to post a comfortable ATS victory once it’s all said and done. Play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-16 | Texas +11 v. Michigan | Top | 50-53 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Texas (9:00 EST). The 4-3 Texas Longhorns are in Ann Arbor, Michigan to take on the 6-2 Wolverines and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. After losing to Virginia Tech at home, the Wolverines bounced back to beat Kennesaw State last time out. Texas broke a three-game slide with a 77-68 win over Alabama on Friday. When these teams played last year, Michigan escaped with a 78-72 victory from Austin. Suffice it to say, I’m fully expecting a similar final outcome today. Longhorns’ guard Kerwin Roach Jr. had 16 points and was 12 of 16 from the free throw line to lead Texas over Alabama on Friday. Five players would go on to score in double figures. So far Texas averages 70.4 PPG, which isn’t great. But what the team lacks on the offensive end, it more than makes up for it on the defensive side of things, conceding an average of just 67 PPG and only 29.9 percent from beyond the arc. Michigan forward Moritz Wagner had 11 points in the win over the Fighting Owls. Note though that the Wolverines aren’t lighting up many scoreboards these days either, entering this one averaging just 71.2 PPG thus far. The defense has been exceptional though, allowing just 59.2 PPG. I’ll point out that the Longhorns are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a SU victory, while the Wolverines are just 1-4 ATS their last five at home and only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 following a SU victory of more than 20 points. The Wolverines have already lost to VT and South Carolina, so have a hard time seeing them covering a double-digit spread. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-16 | Canadiens v. Blues -121 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Blues (8:00 EST). The 17-6-1-1 Montreal Canadiens are in St. Louis to take on the 14-7-3-1 Blues and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Montreal is 2-2 on its current road trip after a hard-fought 5-4 win over LA, while the Blues enter off a 3-2 home loss to Winnipeg. St. Louis though has still won seven of its last nine and note that the home side has won four of the last five in this series. Despite the win over the Kings, Montreal is just 5-6 on the road this year, compared to 12-2 at home. And note that the four goals the Habs posted were the most they’d put up in their last ten games. Goaltender Carey Price has been a bright spot this season, so far he’s 14-4 with a 1.82 GAA. During his career against St. Louis he’s 4-5 with a 2.39 GAA. Note that the Canadiens come into this one averaging 2.92 GPG, ranked eighth in the league, while conceding just 2.20 GPG, ranked fourth. St Louis will star Jake Allen between the pipes tonight and he’s 12-6 with a 2.33 GAA on the season, including 9-2 with a 1.78 GAA at home. I’ll point out that Montreal is interestingly just 3-14 in its last 17 against the Central, while St. Louis is 48-21 in its last 69 against the Atlantic. This is the final game of a five-game road trip for a tired Montreal team and I’m expecting the home side to make the most of this opportunity. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat -1 | Top | 114-103 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Miami Heat (7:35 EST). The 11-9 New York Knicks are in Miami to take on the 7-13 Heat and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the “hungrier” home side. After winning three straight and six of their last eight after downing the Kings 106-98 at home on Sunday, I think the Knicks have a predictable letdown here. While New York is 9-3 at home this year, it’s just 2-6 on the road. It isn’t overly spectacular on either end of the floor, ranked 15th in scoring with an average of 104.3 PPG, while ranked 22nd in scoring defense, conceding 106.4 PPG. Carmelo Anthony leads the way with 22.5 points, plus 6.2 boards per game for the Knicks. The Heat can empathize, they’ve also struggled with consistency on both ends of the court this year. In their latest loss to the Trailblazers, big man Hassan Whiteside had 28 points, 16 boards and five blocks. Miami averages just 97.1 PPG, ranked 28th overall. The defense though has been solid all year, it concedes an average of just 98.8 PPG, ranked sixth. I’ll point out that New York is just 3-5 ATS on the road this season, while Miami is 14-8 ATS in its last 22 versus good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. With a game at home against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers tomorrow night, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead to that one. A great situational play, I’m backing the Heat. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-16 | Oilers -133 v. Sabres | 3-4 | Loss | -133 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Edmonton Oilers (7:00 EST). The 14-10-2-1 Edmonton Oilers are in Buffalo to take on the 9-10-2-3 Sabres and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Edmonton enters off a 2-1 home loss to Minnesota and has now lost four of its last six. Buffalo on the other hand comes in off a tough 3-2 loss in the nations capital just last night. Connor McDavid remains a bright spot for the Oilers, despite not posting a point for a second game in a row, note the he’d notched points in his previous seven games. Cam Talbot gets the call in net today and he’s 13-11 with a 2.55 GAA on the year overall, including 7-5 with a 2.55 GAA on the road. Edmonton is seventh in the NHL in scoring a 2.93 GPG, while it’s 14th in goals allowed, conceding an average of 2.56. Buffalo is ranked 30th in the league in scoring a 2.00 GPG. The Sabres have been decent defensively, conceding 2.46 GPG, ranked ninth. I’ll point out though that the road team is actually 4-1 the last five in this series, while Buffalo is just 20-42 in its last 62 home games against a team with a winning road record. Edmonton has had a night off and I think that will play a big part in the final outcome once it’s all said and done. Play on the Oilers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-16 | Rangers -127 v. Islanders | 2-4 | Loss | -127 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Rangers (7:00 EST). The 17-8-0-1 New York Rangers are in Brooklyn to take on the 9-10-2-3 Islanders and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Rangers have won just for of their last nine, while the Isles have won three of their last four. Note though that the road team has won 13 of the last 18 in this series. Despite scuffling of late, the Rangers still sit alone atop the Metro standings. New York most recently got back on track with a 4-2 home win over the Hurricanes. Leading the attack was Chris Kreider, who scored two goals in under a 5 minute span. Rangers’ veteran netminder Henrik Lundqvist remains a strength, he’s now 12-8 with a 2.57 GAA on the year. In his career against the Islanders he’s gone 30-17-6 with a 2.24 GAA. Note that the Rangers own the No. 1 offense in the league, averaging 3.65 GPG, while conceding just 2.46 GPG, ranked 10th in the NHL. The Isles’ three-game win streak is now a thing of the past after falling to Detroit in OT last time out. So far the Islanders are just 7-8 at the Barclays Center this year. Islanders’ goaltender Jaroslav Halak is just 4-11 with a 2.95 GAA this season, including only 3-6 with a 2.81 GAA at home. Note that the Isles are 17th in the NHL in scoring with 2.54 GPG, while also ranking 21st in goals allowed at 2.88 GPG. I’ll point out that the Rangers are 6-2 their last eight on teh road, while the Islanders are only 3-9 their last 12 when playing on one days rest. I like the Rangers to build off their latest victory and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-16 | La Salle v. Villanova -16.5 | 79-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Villanova (7:00 EST). The 4-2 La Salle Explorers are in Philadelphia to take on the 8-0 Wildcats on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the favorites. The defending national champions are 8-0 out of the gate and won’t be able to simply look past the Explorers today, who come in having won three in a row. During La Salle’s three game win streak the team has averaged 87 points and shot just under 53 percent from the floor. BJ Johnson had 22 points and nine boards in the Explorers’ 14-point victory over Bucknell on Saturday. But now La Salle faces the absolute best in the nation, dating back to last year sees Villanova having won 15 straight basketball games. Keep your eyes on senior forward Kris Jenkins, who is averaging 21 points and five boards. I’ll point out that La Salle is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven following a straight up victory and only 1-8 ATS in its last nine non-conference contests, while Villanova is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 against the Atlantic 10. The Wildcats beat St. Joe’s by 31 and Penn by 25. I think tonight’s game could be the biggest blowout so far, I’m laying the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-16 | Old Dominion v. Rhode Island -10 | 39-51 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Rhode Island (7:00 EST). The 5-2 Old Dominion Monarchs are in Rhode Island to take on the 5-3 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. OD is poised for a letdown here after winning its third straight, this time a tough 60-58 victory over Towson on the road on Saturday. Conversely, Rhode Island comes in focused and hungry after losing its second straight and third in its last four by falling 63-60 at Providence on Saturday. Note that this non-conference matchup does set up as a “revenge” game for the Rams as well, who fell 71-65 on the road to OD on December 22nd, 2015. Old Dominion beat the Tigers despite shooting just 38.8 percent from the floor. The defense looked decent, holding the Tigers to just 3 of 14 from behind the arc. The Monarchs average just 61.4 PPG, ranked 339th in the country. The defense concedes just 58.6 points per night though, ranked seventh overall. The Rams will look to push the pace here and take advantage of OD’s anemic offense. Rhode Island actually had a 35-29 advantage at half-time against Providence, but was unable to hold on down the stretch. Hassan Martin had 14 points and 17 boards. The Rams are an above average offensive team, scoring 76.9 PPG. They’re also quite good on the defensive end of the floor, conceding an average of just 68.1 PPG. I’ll point out that Old Dominion is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after scoring 60 points or less, while Rhode Island is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home fav in the 9.5 to 12 points range and 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after scoring 60 points or less. This one sets up perfectly for the Rams, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-16 | Colts -2 v. Jets | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PRIME-TIME PERFECT STORM is on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST). The 5-6 Indianapolis Colts are in New York to take on the 3-8 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Indianapolis looks to get back on track after a 28-7 loss on Thanksgiving to the Steelers, one which saw starting QB Andrew Luck sidelined with injury. Luck is back for this one though and he takes on a floundering Jets team which enters off a 22-17 loss at home to the Pats. Note that the Colts play with revenge here after losing 20-7 to New York last season. Last week Indy’ back up QB Scott Tolzien struggled, throwing one TD and two INT’s. But as mentioned off the top, Luck is back and he’s so far had a very good season, with 2,827 yards and a 19:8 TD/INT ratio in ten games played. Note that the Colts average 24.5 PPG, ranked 12th overall. The defense has been the weak point, giving up 27.4 PPG, ranked 27th overall. Indinapolis’ defense though clearly catches a break this week in facing the Jets’ anemic unit which averages 17.8 PPG, ranked 28th. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looked decent last week, but overall he’s been a disaster with a horrible 10:13 TD to INT ratio. Note that the defense concedes 24.2 PPG, ranked 21st. I’ll point out that the Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record and 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss, while New York is interestingly just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against teams with losing road records. The Jets have struggled against the pass all year, conceding an average of 263 passing yards per game and I have hard time seeing that unit slowing down a refreshed Luck. New York has already been eliminated, while Indianapolis is in a dog fight for a playoff spot. I’m backing the “hungrier” side, play on the Colts. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-16 | Cavs v. Raptors -2 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* CA$H BOMB is on the Toronto Raptors (7:30 EST). The 13-5 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Toronto to take on the 14-6 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Cavs come into this one with zero momentum, most recently dropping their third straight in a 111-105 setback to Chicago on Friday. Meanwhile, Toronto enters on absolute fire, it’s won six straight, most recently a 128-84 drubbing of the Hawks on Saturday. These teams have played twice this year, and the Cavs have prevailed each time (94-91 in Toronto on October 28th and 121-117 at home on November 15th). Of course, it was the Cavs that knocked Toronto off in six games of the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago as well. The “revenge factor” working in favor of the home side is off the charts tonight. These teams are trending in opposite directions right now and while the Cavs will clearly get things turned around sooner than later, I don’t think that’s going to happen tonight in this hostile environment. Toronto posted its biggest win in franchise history last time out, with eight players scoring in double figures. I’ll point out that Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four away from friendly confines, while Toronto is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six North of the border and 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the home side tonight and I expect it to take full advantage. Play on the Raptors. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-16 | Panthers v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 110 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Florida/Boston (7:00 EST). The 12-11-0-2 Florida Panthers are in Boston to take on the 14-10-0-1 Bruins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one just screams “shootout!” Florida enters off a 2-0 shutout loss in Ottawa on Saturday. Goaltender Roberto Luongo is having a decent year, but note that he’s just 15-16-4 with a 2.45 GAA in 37 games against the Bruins, including only 1-3-1 in his last five. Boston has three wins and seven points in its last four games, most recently holding on for a 2-1 win over the Sabres on Saturday. David Krejci had his fourth goal and 15th point in the victory. These are two of the better defensive clubs in the league, but I’ll point out that Florida has in fact seen the total go over the number in four of its last six in trying to revenge loss against an opponent and in six of nine this year following a divisional contest, while Boston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 22 after playing to three or more consecutive “unders.” The value has now swung the other way, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-16 | Connecticut +8 v. Syracuse | Top | 52-50 | Win | 100 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Connecticut (7:00 EST). The 3-4 Connecticut Huskies are at Syracuse to take on the 5-2 Orange and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Huskies. Both teams enter off victories, as UConn edged Boston U. 51-49, while Syracuse held on to beat North Florida 77-71 on Saturday to break a two-game slide. These former Big East rivals played last year and the Orange beat the Huskies in the Battle for Atlantis tournament from Nassau. Connecticut is injured, as Terry Larrier and point guard Alterique Gilbert have both been lost for the season. Last week it played just eight players to secure the victory over Boston. Keep your eyes on guard Jalen Adams, who leads the team with an average of 18 points, five boards and 5.4 assists per game. The Orange had a 24-point lead over North Florida, but faltered down the stretch and only wound up winning by seven points. Dallas Moore had 30 points. Like the Huskies though, Syracuse has struggled with offensive consistency already this year. I’ll point out that UConn is 19-14 ATS in its last 33 after allowing 60 points or less, while Syracuse is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to nine points. I think Syracuse gets caught looking past UConn tonight and the Huskies keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-16 | Magic v. Pistons -7 | Top | 98-92 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Pistons (6:05 EST). The 8-12 Orlando Magic are in Detroit to take on the 11-10 PIstons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Magic beat the 76ers 105-88 on Friday, while the Pistons won their third straight on the road and fifth in their last six overall by crushing the Hawks 121-85 on the same night. If recent history is any precedence, then Detroit has to be loving its chances for a fourth straight win, as it’s taken seven straight in the series, including a convincing 108-82 beatdown in the first matchup this year. Orlando is the one that looks poised for a letdown here, despite the victory over the lowly 76ers, note that the team still averages only 92.9 PPG, ranked second to last in the league. The Magic get the job done on the defensive end of the court, conceding an average of just 97.3 PPG, which ranks third overall. Last time out for Detroit, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope led eight other players in double figures with 23 points and eight boards. The Pistons average 100.4 PPG, but conceded just 96.9, ranked second overall. Tobia Harris leads Detroit with 17.1 points and 4.9 boards per outing, while Marcus Morris chips in 14 points and four boards. I’ll point out that Orlando is just 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest, just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after scoring 100 points or more and only 1-9 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory, while Detroit is 5-1 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, 3-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or less and 3-0 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. The Magic are just 4-6 SU on the road, while the Pistons are 7-2 at home this season. I think the home side continues its hot run and pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-16 | Red Wings v. Islanders -145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on the New York Islanders (6:05 EST). The 11-10-3-0 Detroit Red Wings are in New York to take on the 9-10-2-2 Islanders and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Detroit played and lost 5-3 in Pittsburgh just last night and I think will be predictably “gassed” in this one. And that’s music to the Islanders’ ears, who will look to build off their 3-0 shutout win over the Capitals on the road. Note that the home team has won four of the last five in this series. The Wings are struggling offensively, ranked 25th overall at just 2.29 GPG. The defense is 15th overall, conceding 2.54 GPG. Detroit goaltender Petr Mrazek is now 6-8 on the year with a 2.83 GAA, including just 2-3 with a 3.03 GAA on the road. The Isles though have been getting improved defensive play and goaltending, as Jaroslav Halak posted the shutout against the the high-powered Capitals. Halak has struggled this year, but has to be feeling much better after his latest performance. New York led the league in most offensive categories last year, but this season sees it ranked 17th in scoring at 2.52 GPG. The Isles concede 2.83 GPG, ranked 21st overall. I’ll point out though that Detroit is just 3-13 in its last 16 when playing on back-to-back days, while New York is 6-3 (+3 units) against clubs with losing records. New York can ill afford to take the foot off the gas after the horrible start to the year. Detroit is struggling in all phases of the game right now and will come in dog-tired after last night’s disheartening setback in Pittsburgh. I’m lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the SD Chargers at 4:25 ET. Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually getting close to turning the corner? The Bucs have won FIVE of seven games since a 1-3 start and after their 14-5 home win over the Seahawks last Sunday, they own THREE consecutive wins and find themselves just one game back of the 7-4 Falcons in the NFC South. No one ever doubted QB Jameis Winston’s talent but some questioned his character. However, he continues to silence his critics. He completed 21 of 28 passes against Seattle with two TD passes. which means he’s now stretched his streak to 27 straight games with at least one rushing or passing TD to begin his career. Both TD throws went to WR Mike Evans (eight catches for 108 yards), who ranks third in receptions (73) and second in receiving yards (1,020) on the season. RB Doug Martin is starting to regain his health and had his best game since returning to the field last Sunday, gaining 87 yards (up from 33- and 63-yard efforts the previous two games). The defense checks in at 19th in points allowed (24.0 per) but is off its best game of the season, holding Seattle without a TD in last Sunday's 14-5 win. Seattle QB Russell Wilson battled injuries in October, going three straight games without a TD, passing or rushing, to close out the month. However, Seattle was 3-0 in November as Wilson’s return to health saw him pass for six TDs (without an interception) plus he added added a rushing and receiving score, as well. Seattle had averaged 29.3 PPG in its three-game winning streak but that all came to an end at Raymond James Stadium last Sunday. Russell was 17 of 33 for just 151 yards (0 TDs / 2 INTs), as Seattle scored only five points (a defensive safety and a FG), gaining only 245 yards while converting just 1 of 11 third-down opportunities. The Bucs now travel cross-country to San Diego, looking to continue their outstanding road play which has seen them go 4-1 SU & ATS. However, they’ll meet a San Diego team which may be just 5-6 but owns a home win over Denver plus road wins at division leaders Atlanta and Houston. Let me also add that the Chargers 1-4 start included an OT loss at KC (blew a 27-10 4th-quarter lead), a four-point loss at Indy, a one-point loss to the Saints and a three-point loss to the Raiders. QB Philip Rivers is having another magnificent season, RB Melvin Gordon is headed for comeback player of the year honors and CB Casey Hayward leads the NFL in interceptions with six. The Chargers ranked 9th in total yards last year (371.8 YPG) but weren’t able to translate that into points, averaging only 20.0 PPG (25th). The team has fixed that this season, as they are gaining almost the same amount of yards (37.1 per game to rank 8th) but instead of averaging just 20.0 PPG, they are scoring 28.5 PPG to rank 4th in the entire NFL! Rivers is completing 62.9% for 271.5 YPG with 23 TDs and 12 INTs. He’s topped 4,000 passing yards in SEVEN of his last eight seasons, while averaging 29.6 TD passes per year in that span. Doing the math, he’s on pace to throw for over 4,300 yards in 2016 and 33 TDs. Gordon was San Diego’s 1st-round pick last year but flopped badly, rushing for just 641 yards (on 3.5 YPC) while not scoring a single TD. He’s got 908 rushing yards this season (on pace for over 1,300) and has nine rushing TDs while adding two more TDs on 37 catches! At 5-6, this is “last stand” time for the Chargers and this Tampa Bay team just doesn’t have the pedigree to keep winning on the road. Expect the Chargers to even their record at 6-6, earning the win “with room to spare!” Good luck...Larry |
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12-04-16 | Broncos -4.5 v. Jaguars | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 113 h 55 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (1:00 EST). The 7-4 Denver Broncos are in Jacksonville to take on the 2-9 Jaguars and despite being down to their No. 2 QB, I think this one favors the visitors. Denver comes in off a 30-27 OT loss to Kansas City, while Jacksonville fell 28-21 to the Bills. The Chiefs hit a game-winning field goal as time expried in OT last week. QB Trevor Simien was great, but he was injured near the end of the game, meaning the Paxton Lynch will get the call tonight. I don’t see much of a drop off between these two, as the offense is primarily focused around the run game anyways. Denver wins games because of its defense and special teams’ play and I’m expecting these two phases to once again play a big part in the final outcome of this one as well. Note that the Broncos average 24.2 PPG, ranked 13th overall. The defense concedes 19.9 PPG, ranked 19th overall, but note that the unit did post six sacks last week. The Jags are a mess and come into this one having lost six straight. Last week struggling QB Blake Bortles had 126 yards and two TD’s. The run game was decent with 183 yards with one TD. The offense though averages just 19.5 PPG, ranked 26th overall. The defense is on par with the offense, conceding 26.6 PPG, which also ranks 26th overall. I’ll point out that Denver is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 following a straight up loss, while Jacksonville is interestingly, just 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven after posing more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game. As Bortles goes, so go the Jaguars. Jacksonville relies on Bortles to move this offense, which doesn’t bode well in facing the Broncos No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing an average of just 193 passing yars per game. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-16 | Chiefs +4 v. Falcons | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 113 h 55 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST). The 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs are in Atlanta to take on the 7-4 Falcons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. KC comes in off a confidence building 30-27 OT win over Denver, while Atlanta enters off a 38-19 win over Arizona. Last week Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith had 220 yards, one TD and no INT’s. TE Travis Kelce made eight catches for 101 yards. KC is once again in the thick of the AFC West race and averages 22.9 points per game, ranked 16th overall. Kansas City’s normally stout defense looked a bit shaky last week, but despite the sub-par performance, the unit still concedes an average of just 19.5 PPG. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan was solid once again last week, finishing 26 of 34 for 269 yards, two TD’s and an INT. WR Julio Jones had four catches for 35 yards, but the run game picked up the slack by posting three rushing major scores. Atlanta owns the league’s No. 1 offense, one which averages 32.5 PPG, but its defense has been a disaster, conceding 27.5 PPG, ranked 28th. I’ll point out that KC is 4-2 ATS on the road this year and 2-1 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while Atlanta is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 as a favorite (including only 2-3 ATS this year). I think the Chiefs’ superior defense and special teams will play a significant role in the final outcome of this game and while I clearly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, ultimately I’m going to recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on Kansas City. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-16 | Texans v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 113 h 54 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST). The 6-5 Houston Texans are in Green Bay to take on the 5-6 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Houston comes in off a listless 21-13 loss to San Diego last week, while Green Bay got off the schneid with a convincing 27-13 win in Philadelphia on Monday night. Last week Texans’ QB Brock Osweiler struggled with 246 yards, zero TD’s and three INT’s. So far he’s thrown 12 TD’s to 13 picks. WR DeAndre Hopkins has just one 100 yard receiving game this year. Note that RB Lamar Miller had just 57 yards on 19 carries last week. It comes as little surprise to learn that Houston ranks in the bottom of almost every offensive category, the unit averages just 17.6 PPG, ranked 29th overall. The defense has also regressed as the season has progressed and now concedes 21.5 PPG, ranked 13th overall. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers was 30 of 39 last week for 313 yards, two TD’s and no picks. So far Rodgers has 27 TD’s to just seven picks. Davantae Adams had five grabs for 113 yards and two TD’s. The offense averages 24.9 PPG, ranked 11th overall. The defense concedes 26.3 PPG, ranked 25th, but looked a lot better last week in allowing just 292 total to Philadelphia. I’ll point out that Houston is already 0-3 ATS this year as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and just 1-3 ATS on the road, while Green Bay is 3-1 ATS his season as a home fav of 3.5 to seven points. I simply can’t see the Texans keeping pace with the Packers and their surging offense, I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-16 | Penn State v. Wisconsin -1.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -106 | 124 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* COLLEGE FOOTBALL SIDE OF THE YEAR is on Wisconsin (8:00 EST). The 10-2 Nittany Lions take on the 10-2 Badgers at Lucas Oil Stadium for the Big Ten Title on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Wisconsin. Penn State beat Michigan State last week to clinch a spot in the Big 10 title game. The Nittany Lions are 8-1 in Big 10 action and defeated Ohio State (also 8-1) on October 22nd by a score of 24-21 to win the East Division. Wisconsin beat Minnesota 31-17 at home last weekend, but had already clinched a spot in the Big 10 Championship game after Nebraska lost to Iowa on Friday due to the tiebreaker. After scoring just three points in the third quarter to make it 17-10, the Badgers would put the pedal to the metal in the fourth and score three TD’s to beat the Golden Gophers 31-17. Keep your eyes on senior CB Sojourn Shelton, who had two fourth quarter INT’s. On the offensive side, RB Corey Clement had two rushing TD’s. The defense also came up big as it held opposing QB Mitch Leidner to just 9 of 26 for 158 yards, one TD and four picks. Starting QB Alex Hornibrook was just 4 of 8 for 29 yards before leaving injured in the second quarter. Backup Bart Houston was effecient, going 9 of 14 for 123 yards. Whether its Hornibrook or Houston, I love this play, as I truly believe that the Badgers’ defense and special teams are playing at an entirely different level right now. Note that the Badgers average just 179.6 passing yards per game anyways. The defense allows just 292 yards per game though (ranked 7th), including only 100.8 YPG on the ground (3rd). No. 7 Penn State fell behind 12-10 to MSU last Saturday, but turned it on in the second half, outgaining the Spartans 256-125 the rest of the way, eventually pulling away for the 45-12 win at home. They won despite RB Saquon Barkley leaving the game with a sprained ankle. Junior QB Trace McSorely has been exceptional this year and he’ll clearly be the focal point of this aggressive Badgers’ pass defense. Note that McSorely finished with 21 TD’s to just five picks. The Nittany Lions average 433.2 YPG, which ranks 53rd in the nation. They’re 20th in the country on the defensive side in allowing an average of 346.8 YPG. I’ll point out though that Penn State is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while Wisconsin is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as a favorite. In my professional opinion, the old saying: “Defense wins championships,” could not be more apt in this matchup. The Nittany Lions’ win over the Buckeyes was impressive, but as stated above, I think that the Badgers’ defensive dominance and special teams plays turns out to be the difference. Play on Wisconsin. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-16 | Lakers v. Grizzlies | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:00 EST). The 10-11 LA Lakers are in Memphis to take on the 12-8 Grizzlies and for a number of different reasons (despite several injuries to key players), I think this one favors the home side. LA isn’t surprising anyone anymore, last night it lost its fourth in its last six after getting destroyed 113-80 by the Raptors on the road. I had a play on LA in that one and while I don’t normally ever “flip-flop,” on a team, I always remain flexible with my approach (especially in the regular season) and for the most part analyze contests by a “game by game” basis. Conversely, Memphis enters this one with momentum after breaking a three game slide with a 95-94 home win over Orlando on Thursday. LA averages 106.6 PPG, but allows 109.6. Lou Williams leads the way with 16.7 points plus 3.5 assists a night off the bench. The Grizzlies would outscore the Magic 30-26 in the fourth quarter to score the 1-point win. The hungry home side would force 17 turnovers and big man Marc Gasol finished with 25 points and five blocks. So far Memphis averages just 97.2 PPG. The Grizzlies get the job done with tough defensive play though, allowing just 98.3 PPG, good for fifth in the league. I’ll point out that LA is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road fav of three points or less, while Memphis is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 as a home dog of three points or less. LA is dealing with a few injuries as well, so while Memphis may be injured, it’s still very dangerous in this position. LA played just 24 hours previous in Eastern Canada and had to fly half way around the country for this one. I’m banking on the Grizzlies to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-16 | Blue Jackets -135 v. Coyotes | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Columbus Blue Jackets (8:00 EST). The 13-5-3-1 Columbus Blue Jackets are in Arizona to take on the 8-11-3-0 Coyotes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Blue Jackes have earned points in their last four outings and they’ll look to keep the momentum rolling against the 7th ranked Coyotes, who have dropped two in a row. Most recently the Jackets beat the Avs 3-2 on Thursday, led by Brandon Saad and Nick Foligno, each who tallied a goal. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been spectacular this year, going 13-5-2 with a 2.08 GAA, giving up two goals or fewer in 11 of his past 14 games. Note that Columbus is 5-2-3 on the road this season and 7-1-2 in its last ten overall. Also note that the Blue Jackets are the NHL leaders on the power play, converting 26 percent of their chances. Arizona comes in off losses to San Jose and LA. In their 4-3 loss to the Kings, the Yotes committed 5 giveaways. Arizona is now just 3-2-3 in its last eight against the Pacific. Coyotes’ netminder Mike Smith is 4-2-2 on the year with a 2.74 GAA. Overall though Arizona is the third worst defensive team in the league, giving up an average of 3.14 goals per game. It also has the fourth worst power play with an efficiency rate of just 13.6. I’ll point out that Columbus is 5-1 in its last six after allowing two goals or less in its previous game and 4-1 in its last five on one days rest. I like the Blue Jackets to keep those strong trends rolling here, they have the better goaltending and the power play is on fire. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a great price, play on Columbus. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-16 | Virginia Tech v. Clemson -10 | Top | 35-42 | Loss | -103 | 73 h 16 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Clemson (8:00 EST). The 9-3 Virginia Tech Hokies get ready to battle the 11-1 Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship Game from Orlando on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Tigers. Clemson cruised to a 56-7 destruction of South Carolina on Saturday night, while VT smashed Virginia 52-10. Hokies’ QB Jerod Evans had 253 yards and two TD’s last week. RB Sam Rogers had a career high 105 yards and two TD’s as well. Note that VT averages 35 PPG, ranked 35th in the country. The Hokies are even better defensively, ranked 20th overall in conceding an average of 21.1 PPG. Clemson QB DeShaun Watson had 347 yards and six TD’s last week. RB Wayne Gallman had 112 yards and has 14 major scores on the year. The Tigers feature one of the best passing units in the country and are now averaging 40 PPG, ranked 17th overall. Not to be outdone though, the defense also looked great, allowing just 218 total yards on 14 first downs (compared to 41 for the Tigers). Note that Clemson allows just 17 PPG, ranked ninth in the nation. I’ll point out that Virginia Tech is just 1-4 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival and only 1-3 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Clemson is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral field contests. I think the combination of Watson and Gallman will prove to be too much for the VT defense and look for the super star duo to wear down the Hokies. Clemson’s defense is second to none and will play a big part in the final outcome once it’s all said and done as well. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-16 | Florida v. Alabama -24 | 16-54 | Win | 100 | 69 h 16 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Alabama (4:00 EST). The 8-3 Florida Gators take on the 12-0 Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship game in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on Saturady afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite. The Gators enter this one with zero momentum after falling 31-13 at Florida State last weekend. Conversely, the Tide avoided a potentially dangerous trap game by rolling over Auburn 30-12 last week. These teams played last year in the SEC Championship game as well and the Tide cruised to a 29-15 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger final discrepancy this evening. Last week Gators’ backup QB Austin Appleby was just 19 of 35 for 149 yards and zero TD’s. The senior QB has struggled in his time this year, throwing for six TD’s and two INT’s in five starts. Not surprisingly, Florida ranks among the worst in the nation offensively, posting just 24.1 PPG, ranked 104th overall. Defensively the team shines though, conceding an average of just 14.6 PPG, ranked fifth overall. Tide’ QB Jalen Hurts has 21 TD’s to just nine INT’s this year, he finished with 286 yards and two TD’s last week. The run game was also fantastic, going for over 200 yards against one of the best run defenses in the country. Note that Alabama averages 39.4 PPG, ranked 19th overall. Alabama owns the No. 1 defense in the land though, a unit which concedes a paltry 11.4 PPG. I’ll point out that Florida is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after accumulating less than 170 passing yards in its previous game, while Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss. Appleby has thrown for less than 200 yards in all but one of his starts and is clearly going to be in trouble today. I simply can’t see the Gators putting up much (or any?), offensive resistance and look for the Tide to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-16 | Florida v. Alabama OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-54 | Win | 100 | 69 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Week 14 Goin' Over Total (TOTAL OF YEAR) is on Alabama/Florida Over at 4:00 ET. Top-ranked 12-0 Alabama takes on 8-3 Florida in Saturday’s SEC championship, a rematch from last year when the Tide beat the Gators 29-15. It will be the ninth time the two schools have met in this game and while each team has won four, this is hardly expected to be a competitive game. Most experts (and non-experts) believe that Alabama has such a cushion in the College Football Playoff rankings that it will qualify for the four-team national championship competition even if it should lose to No. 16 Florida in Saturday's game in Atlanta. However, Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban doesn’t want to hear any of that talk. "That's certainly not the mindset that we want on our team," Saban told reporters at a press conference. "This is a big game for us. It's an opportunity to win the SEC championship, which to me is a very, very significant accomplishment. We hold that in very high esteem, having the ability to do that, having the opportunity to do it, having the ability to play for it." Still, Alabama has won 24 consecutive games and is the only undefeated team from a major conference and is considered a shoo-in to be part of the playoff. Alabama will come in with the nation's best defense, ranking first in points allowed (11.4 per) and first in total yards allowed (247.2 per game). However, the offense has terrific balance, rushing for 248.3 YPG on 5.7 YPC while passing for 231.2 YPG. Freshman QB Jalen Hurts is completing 65.9 percent with 21 TDs and nine INTs, while running for 840 yards on 6.6 YPC with 12 TDs. Harris (900 yards on 7.3 YPC) leads the team in rushing with fellow RBs Jacobs (513 yards on 6.6 YPC) and Scarbrough (448 yards on 4.7 YPC) hardly considered non-factors. Alabama has averaged 39.4 PPG and has not scored at least 30 points just once in 2016, in its 10-0 win at LSU. The Florida defense is top-notch, allowing 14.6 PPG (5th) on 291.9 YPG (6th) but note that in games against the three-best offensive teams the Gators have faced this season, Tennessee (36.2 PPG), FSU (35.2 PPG) and Arkansas (31.0 PPG), the Gators allowed 38, 31 and 31 points, respectively. Holding Alabama under 30 would be a major achievement. Trying to slow Alabama’s offense is made even more difficult due to the fact that the Gators will be without six starters, including defensive standouts like LB Jarrad Davis (ankle), LB Alex Anzalone (arm), DE Jordan Sherit (knee) and safety Marcus Maye (arm). Even more defensive players could miss come Saturday. Florida’s sophomore QB Luke Del Rio (shoulder) will be available only in an emergency, so senior Austin Appleby (964 yards, six TDs, and two INTs) will again be under center for an offense averaging just 16.3 PPG in his last three starts. However, the key here is that 14 points by the Gators will be MORE than enough to push this game over this low over/under number. I played this game Over 38 last year and won in a 29-15 final. The number is slightly higher this year but this Hurts-led offense is more dynamic than the Tide’s offense last season. I would not be the least surprised to see Alabama take this game over all by itself. Good luck...Larry |
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12-03-16 | Baylor v. West Virginia -17 | 21-24 | Loss | -112 | 69 h 46 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on West Virginia (3:30 EST). The 6-5 Baylor Bears are at West Virginia to take on the 9-2 Mountaineers and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the home side. WVU won’t be playing for the conference title, but can capture a large bowl berth with another convincing victory today. The Bears on the other hand come into this one having lost five straight, most recently a pathetic 54-35 setback to Texas Tech. Suffice it to say, I think the visitors simply “go through the motions” this afternoon. After winning its first six straight, Baylor has since gone on to lose its next five. Last week the Bears allowed TT QB Patrick Hahomes to throw for nearly 600 yards and six TD’s without an INT. Baylor QB Zach Smith had 377 yards in the losing effort. West Virginia is trying to win ten games for the first time since 2011 and is led by QB Skyler Howard, who has 3,083 yards, 24 TD’s and just 10 picks this season. Last week Howard had five TD’s and 330 yards passing in his team’s 49-19 destruction of Iowa State. RB Martell Pttaway led the way on the ground with 181 rushing yards. I’ll point out that Baylor is 0-6 ATS in its last six on the road, while WVU is interestingly 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 40 more points in its previous game. I think Howard is going to have a big night against the Bears’ porous secondary and expect the Mountaineers defense to do just enough to help out in a comfortable ATS victory. Play on West Virginia. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-16 | Stanford +15.5 v. Kansas | Top | 74-89 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Stanford (3:30 EST). The Stanford Cardinal get ready to battle the Kansas Jayhawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Kansas opened the season with a 103-99 OT loss to Indiana in the Armed Forces Classic from Hawaii, but then bounced back four days later to beat Duke by two points from MSG. The Jayhawks have since won five straight, most recently a 91-61 drubbing of LBSU on Tuesday. The Cardinal enter off a 66-51 home to loss to No. 12 St. Mary’s on Wednesday. Stanford had a horrible night shooting against the Gaels, finishing just 38.2 percent from the floor and only 3 of 13 from behind the arc. I think the team will be much more focused this evening after the shoddy performance last time out. Reid Travis leads the team with an average of 16.3 points and 9.5 boards per game, while Dorian Pickens adds 13.8 points. The Jayhawks’ Lagerald Vick caught fire against the 49ers, going 9 of 9 from the field for a career-high 23 points. Kansas averages 85.1 PPG, but note that it shoots a poor 59.9 percent from the foul line (ranked 335th). And note that Kansas is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while Stanford, despite the slow start this season, is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after scoring 60 points or less. I’m not going to predict an outright upset, but I do think this one sets up great for the Cardinals to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-16 | Alabama v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Texas (9:30 EST). The 4-2 Alabama Crimson Tide are playing the 3-3 Texas Longhorns on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Texas. The Longhorns come into this one extremely motivated as they look to snap a three-game slide. Conversely, I think this one sets up as a letdown spot for the Crimson Tide, who have won two in a row, most recently against Charleston Southern. Alabama is led by senior forward Shannon Hale and freshman Donta Hall, who is averaging six points and nine boards per game. Note that nine Tide players average between 4.0 and 10.7 PPG. Texas has had issues at the point guard position, as sophomore Kerwin Roach and freshman Andrew Jones continue to battle it out for the job after Isaiah Taylor skipped his senior year before going undrafted in the NBA. However, I’ll point out that the Longhorns are 3-1 ATS in their last three after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive outings. And I’ll also point out that this is a spot in which the Crimson Tide have struggled in for bettors, going just 1-2 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less. I’m banking on the desperate home side in doing just enough to come away with the cover this evening. Play on Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-16 | Colorado +8 v. Washington | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Colorado (9:00 EST). The No. 9, 10-2 Colorado Buffaloes get ready to take on the No. 4, 11-1 Washington Huskies in the PAC-12 Championship game in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Colorado enters off a 27-22 home win over Utah, while Washington smashed Washington State 45-17 in The Apple Cup. Note that the last time these team’s played against each other, the Huskies would come away with a hard-fought 28-23 win back in November 2014. Last week the Buffs played well on both sides of the ball. QB Sefo Liufau had 270 yards and a TD. The offense has been decent this season, averaging 34.8 PPG, ranked 36th overall. But as mentioned off the top, the defense was domimant, conceding only 160 passying yards and holding Utah to just 6 for 21 on third down. Note that Colorado allows only 18.8 PPG, ranked 36th in the country. There is a lot on the line for the Huskies, as a victory today would seal their inclusion into the Championship round. Last week Jake Browning was 21 of 29 for 292 yards and three TD’s. Browning leads an offense which averages 44.8 PPG, ranked third in the country. The defense has been just as good, conceding only 17.8 PPG, ranked 11th overall. I’ll point out though that this is a spot in which Colorado has excelled in for bettors, going 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season and 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records, while Washington has struggled in this position, just 4-5 ATS against the conference and only 2-3 ATS in its last five when playing the role of favorite. The pressure is on Browning and the Huskies, while Colorado has nothing to lose tonight and everything to gain. I’m going to stop short in predicting an outright upset, but I do definitely expect this “under-the-radar” Colorado team to at the very least, do enough to comfortably cover with the points. Play on the Buffaloes. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-16 | Wizards +9.5 v. Spurs | Top | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (8:30 EST0. The 6-11 Washington Wizards are in San Antonio to take on the 15-4 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Wizards will be in a particularly foul mood today after letting a 7-point lead slip away late in regulation, eventually falling 126-115 in OT in OKC. They’re also out for revenge after SA beat them 112-110 at home last Saturday night. Washington would waste another big effort from guard Bradley Beal, who had 31 points in the loss to the Thunder. Markieff Morris also had a big game, added 19 points and seven boards. So far the Wiz average 102.8 PPG. After Orlando beat SA by 12 on Tuesday, the Spurs would bounce back with a lacklustre 94-87 win over the Mavericks on the road on Wednesday. Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard had 21 points and seven boards against the Mavs, but was just 5 of 16 overall. I’ll point out that San Antonio is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven at home and only 9-19-1 ATS in its last 29 when playing on one days rest, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. The Spurs have struggled with game-to-game consistency and I think the hungry visitors will give them everything they can handle tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-16 | Lakers +10.5 v. Raptors | 80-113 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Lakers (7:30 EST). The 10-10 LA Lakers are in Toronto to take on the 12-6 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. LA is coming off a confidence building 96-90 road win in Chicago on Wednesday, while Toronto is coming off its fourth straight victory in a 120-105 effort over the undermanned Grizzlies on Wednesday night. LA would hold Chicago to just 35.2 percent shooting, including 4 of 21 from down town. The Lakers also controlled the glass by a dominant 62-46 margin. Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams led the way with 18 points apiece. So for the Lakers average 106.6 PPG, ranked eighth overall. LA struggles defensively, conceding an average of 109.6, but clearly the unit took a big step in the right direction in its latest victory. Toronto guard Kyle Lowry led the way over Memphis with 29 points and eight assists. Toronto averages 109.7 PPG, while conceding 104.3. DeMar DeRozan leads the team with 28.9 PPG. I’ll point out that the Lakers are 4-1 ATS in non-conference games this year, while the Raptors are just 4-5 ATS in the same position. I think the visitors can “hang” with the home side here and while I’ll stop short in predicting the outright upset, everything does indeed point to a comfortable cover for the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-16 | Kings +7 v. Celtics | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Sacramento Kings (7:30 EST). The 7-11 Sacramento Kings are in Boston to take on the 10-8 Celtics and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Sacramento comes into this one with a little extra time off, as its game against Philadelphia was postponed due to condensation on the floor, the contest will be made up at a later date. This is a great little situational factor which I think will be a big difference maker tonight. The home side comes in with zero momentum, most recently losing a third straight, this time 121-114 to the Pistons on Wednesday. In their most recent game against the Wizards, the Kings would eventually succumb in the overtime period. Big man DeMarcus Cousins led the way with 36 points and 20 boards. So far Sacramento is ranked 17th overall in the league in scoring with 103.2 PPG. The defense is ranked 19th, conceding 105.2. I’ll point out though that Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record, while Boston is interestingly, just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Pacific division. Boston has struggled with consistency and will have its hands full today with this well rested and re-focused Kings’ team. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to grab the points in the end. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 44 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 49 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Cowboys/Vikings (8:25 EST). The 10-1 Dallas Cowboys are in Minnesota to take on the 6-5 Vikings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Dallas is confident, having won ten straight games. But success often leads to complancency as well. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot, combined with arguably the best offensive line in the league have been spectacular, but the defense has also been very solid. Last week the Cowboys went to-to-toe with the top passing attack in Kirk Cousins and the Redskins on Thanksgiving day and would allow three passing TD’s. Minnesota QB Sam Bradford though does not pose nearly as a big a threat in the passing game this week obviously. In fact, the Vikes rank last in the league in yardage gained per contest. The Vikes can’t run the ball, so Bradford will continue his short crossing routes and dumps, note that he was an incredibly effecient 31 of 37 last week for 224 yards in the 16-13 loss in Detroit on Thanksgiving. I’ll point out that Dallas has seen the total go under the number in five of its last eight after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Minnesota has seen the total dip below the posted number in 13 of its last 17 against clubs with winning records. The reason the Vikes are 6-5 is not because of their offensive play, but because of a Top 5 defensive unit. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet,” play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-16 | Clippers +5 v. Cavs | Top | 113-94 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the LA Clippers (8:00 EST). The 14-5 LA Clippers are in Cleveland to take on the 13-3 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I think that LA is the much more motivated side tonight after three-straight losses, most recently a 127-122 double OT road setback in Brooklyn on Tuesday. And I think that this does in fact set up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Cavs, as they had their four-game win streak snapped with a lacklustre 118-101 setback at Milwaukee on Tuesday. And despite this being a non-conference contest, this does set up as a bit of a “revenge” scenario for the visitors, who have lost four straight in the series, including a 114-90 setback in Cleveland on March 14th, 2016. It should be noted as well that in the loss to the Nets, star forward Blake Griffin was given the night off for rest and to prepare for this one. LA is a tough, deep team which ranks seventh in scoring defense in allowing just 98.9 PPG. The offense is ranked sixth with an average of 108.6. The Cavs are second in the league in scoring with 111.3 PPG. They’re 14th in scoring defense by allowing 103.8 PPG. I’ll point out that the Clippers are 9-6 ATS in their last 15 as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while Cleveland is just 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season. With a three game road trip against the best in the East which starts tomorrow night in Chicago, there’s no question that this also sets up as a “look ahead” spot for the home side. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on the Clippers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-16 | Lightning v. Blues -145 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the St. Louis Blues (8:00 EST). The 13-10-0-1 Tampa Bay Lightning are in St. Louis to take on the 13-7-2-1 Blues and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Bolts are reeling, they’ve lost four of their last five, which doesn’t bode well in facing this surging Blues team which is even better at home. During the slide Tampa has allowed 14 goals, while the offense has posted just two in its last two home games and just one marker in each of its last seven road losses. The Blues have won five straight in this series (note that Tampa hasn’t even won in St. Louis in over seven years!). The Blues are 6-1-0 in their last seven overall and have earned a point in all of their ten home games. Goaltender Jake Allen is 11-3-3 this season with a very respectable 2.39 GAA. When Allen faced Tampa Bay last year, he came away with the 2-0 victory. Note that St. Louis owns the third most effective penalty killing unit, with an 87.6 percent success rate. And I’ll point out that the Lightning are just 1-4 in their last five when plaing with one day’s rest, while St. Louis is 4-1 in its last five following a victory. Tampa Bay is clearly rudderless now without the services of captin Steven Stamkos and I think the Blues take advantage tonight. Note that Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop is 1-4 in his career against St. Louis. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-16 | Columbia +16 v. Seton Hall | Top | 71-95 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Columbia (7:00 EST). The Lions looked good in the second half of their 88-86 setback to Hofstra on Wednesday night and I think they carry some of that momentum over into this one. Columbia would erase a 12-point second half deficit, but the come back effort would fall just short. One player to keep your eyes on today is Luke Petrasek, who had a career-high 27 points and who hit a 3-pointer with under a minute to go to Columbia the lead. I think Seton Hall gets caught “looking past” the lowly Lions today. The Pirates looked pretty mediocre in Orlando last week as well, beating Quinnipiac, between losses to Florida and Stanford. The team is led by Khadeen Carrington, who is averaging 21.7 PPG. I’ll point out that the Lions are 6-3 ATS in their last nine after allowing 80 points or more and 13-8 ATS in their last 21 on the road, while the Pirates are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven after scoring 60 points or less and interestingly, just 1-2 ATS in their last three against poor defensive teams which allow 77-plus points per contest. While I’ll stop short in predicting a huge upset, I do definitely think that there are enough factors working in favor of Columbia to pull the trigger as I expect the Lions to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-16 | Wizards +5.5 v. Thunder | Top | 115-126 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Wizards (8:05 EST). The 6-10 Wizards are in Oklahoma City to take on the 11-8 Thunder and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors. Washington has started to turn things around of late as it would win for the third time in four games by besting the Kings 101-95 in OT at home on Monday. OKC also comes in on a three-game win skein after defeating the Knicks 112-103 on the road on Monday (I had the Thunder in that one). Despite this being a non-conference game, it still does set up as a “revenge” scenario for the visitors, who have lost four straight in the series, including both matchups last year. The Wizards would knock down 10 of 25 three point attempts in their latest win, while holding the Kings to just 3 of 21 shooting. Guard Bradley Beal had 31 points, including a career-high seven three-pointers. As Russell Westbrook goes, so go the Thunder. In the win over New York he posted his eighth triple-double of the year with 27 points, 18 boards and 14 assists. I’ll point out though that Washington is already 3-1 ATS this season following a non-conference game, while OKC is just 2-6 ATS this year in the same position and only 7-8 ATS when playing the role of favorite. With three whole days off before a game at home against the Hornets, I think the Thunder take the foot off the gas and get caught looking ahead to the extra time off. Washington has been playing much better in all phases and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-16 | Penguins -145 v. Islanders | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -145 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (8:00 EST). The 13-6-2-1 Pittsburgh Penguins are in New York to take on the 7-10-2-2 Islanders and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Pens most recently knocked off the Devils 4-3 in a shootout at home, while the Isles scored a 2-1 home victory over the Flames. Pittsburgh goaltender Matt Murray posted the win last time out, he’s now 7-1 with a 1.75 GAA this year. Marc-Andre Fleury though is expected to get the call tonight, and while he’s struggled for the most part this season, the veteran has a big opportunity to “right the ship” in facing this inconsistent Islanders offense. Note that he’s 23-15 with a 2.50 GAA lifetime against the Isles. The Penguins are eighth in the NHL in scoring at 2.91 GPG, while also ranking first in shots taken at 33.9. And that doesn’t bode well for the last place Isles. Goaltender Thomas Greiss notched the win over Calgary, he’s now 4-4 with a 2.41 GAA this season. But Jaroslav Halak will get the call in this one and he’s just 3-10 with a 3.08 GAA this season. The Islanders are 22nd in the league in scoring with an average of 2.68 GPG. I’ll point out that the Penguins are 22-6 in their last 28 against teams with losing records, while New York is just 3-13 in its last 16 against clubs with winning records. The Isles have struggled against good teams this year and I think that trend continues. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-16 | Grizzlies +11.5 v. Raptors | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Memphis Grizzlies (7:35 EST). The 11-7 Memphis Grizzlies are in Toronto to take on the 11-6 Raptors and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors. Memphis most recently lost 104-85 to the Hornets on Monday, while Toronto smashed the 76ers 122-95 at home on the same night. The Grizz play with a bit of the revenge factor on their side this evening after dropping both games to the Raptors last season. The reason the Grizzlies are getting so many points here is that guard Mike Conley is out. The team is also without the servics of James Ennis and Chandler Parsons. I simply feel this is a bad “spot” for Toronto though and expect it to get caught a little complacent. The Raptors have hit a “vanilla” part of their schedule, with the lowly Lakers at home on Saturday up next. And note that despite averaging just 96.9 PPG this season, the Grizzlies allow just 97.3 PPG, which ranks third overall. Toronto averages 109.1 PPG, good for fifth overall. But note that the Raptors concede an average of 104.3 PPG, ranked 16th overall. I’ll point out that Memphis is a perfect 3-0 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less, while Toronto is just 3-4 ATS in all non-conference games. This one sets up as a bit of a trap for Toronto. I’m banking on the visitors keeping this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, so grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-16 | James Madison v. Charlotte -4.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Charlotte (7:00 EST). The 0-6 James Madison Dukes are in Charlotte to take on the 4-2 49ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Dukes come off a heart-wrenching 80-77 OT loss at George Mason on Saturday, while the 49ers snapped a two-game slide with an 80-72 win over Appalachian State on Monday night. James Madison was leading by two at half time in its latest loss, but 32 fouls would be just too much for the team to overcome. Jackson Kent led the way in the setback, finishing with 19 points and six assists. The Dukes have struggled on both ends of the floor this year, they’re ranked 305th in the nation in scoring with an average of 66.8 PPG, while on defense they’re tied for 267 in conceding an average of 77.5 PPG. The 49ers shot 57.4 percent from the floor in their win over the Mountaineers, while holding App State to just 42.6 percent. Charlotte can score with the best of them, it’s ranked 23rd in the country with an average of 86.2 PPG. Defense has been the main problem though, as the team concedes a whopping 84.3 PPG thus far. Davis leads the team with 20.3 points, plus 3.2 assists per contest. I’ll point out that James Madison is just 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference contests, while Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six in the same position. The 49ers have a big opportunity to get their defensive statistics under control tonight in facing this struggling Dukes’ offense. Combined with the superior offense, the correct call in this one is indeed on Charlotte. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-16 | Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-120 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Houston Rockets (9:00 EST). The 11-6 Houston Rockets are in Utah to take on the 9-8 Jazz and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Houston has been surprisingly good on the road this year and I expect that trend of strong play to continue tonight, as note that the Rockets have won three straight away from friendly confines. In fact, Houston has won five of its last six, including a convincing 111-102 victory at home over Utah ten days ago. The Jazz are the NBA’s leading defensive team, but I think they come out flat and tired after their high-scoring 112-103 win in Minnesota just last night. And that’s bad news against a Rockets team which averages 109.8 PPG, ranked third overall. Keep your eyes on James Harden of course, he leads the NBA in assists and is fourth in scoring at 28.9 per game. The Rockets most recently beat the Blazers by 16, posting 130 points in the process. Utah leads the league in several defensive categories, but as I stated off the top, I simply feel this is a bad spot for the Jazz, as note that they’re already just 1-6 ATS as an underdog this year and 2-6 ATS against teams with winning records. And note that Houston has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 8-0 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more and 5-3 ATS against clubs with winning records. I’m laying the points with confidence and expect a wire-to-wire rout. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-16 | Stars v. Red Wings -133 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Detroit Red Wings (7:30 EST). The 9-8-5-0 Dallas Stars are in Detroit to take on the 10-10-2-0 Red Wings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Dallas played and lost 4-3 in St. Louis just last night. Now it has to transition across the country to play a hungry Red Wings team which has lost seven of 12 in front of the home town crowd this year. The Stars own the second worst GAA record in the league with 3.27 conceded goals per game. Like Dallas, Detroit has been plagued by injury this year. The Wings have looked a bit better of late though, picking up five points from their last three contests. Backup goaltender Petr Mrazek looked good in his team’s 2-1 OT loss to the Habs last time out, allowing just one regulation goal. I’ll point out that Dallas is just 2-7 in its last nine on the road, while Detroit is 4-1 in its last five against clubs with losing records. Despite all of their injuries, the Red Wings are the correct call here, they’re rested and have an opportunity to move to 3-0-1 in their last four. I’m laying the price. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-16 | Pittsburgh v. Maryland -4 | Top | 73-59 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Maryland (7:00 EST). The 5-1 Pittsburgh Panters are at the 7-0 Maryland Terrapins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Terps enter this one with a ton of momentum after winning the Barclays Center Classic in New York on Saturday. Pitt has won five of its first six games, with its one loss coming against SMU in the semifinals of the 2K Classic. Last Friday Pittsburgh beat Morehead State 76-63. I had the Panthers in that one. Forward Michael Young had 20 points to lead the way, while the team would shoot 49 percent collectively. The Panthers average 81.3 PPG and concede 75.7. Maryland comes in off an 88-82 OT win over Richmond last Friday, led by 31 points from Trimble. Freshman Justin Jackson averages 11.7 points and 7.1 boards, while also shooting 52 percent from behind the 3-point line. I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games (and is 0-8 ATS in its last eight against the Big Ten), while Maryland 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range. The Terps have already beaten some stiff competition and I think their depth and size will prove to be just too much for Pittsburgh to overcome (note that Maryland has three huge centers in Cekovsky, 7-1, 250, Ivan Bender, 6-9, 235 and Damonte Dodd, 6-10, 250). Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles OVER 47 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is the over Packers/Eagles (8:30 EST). The 4-6 Green Bay Packers are in Philadelphia to take on the 5-5 Eagles and I think everything points to a higher-scoring shootout between these two hungry clubs. Green Bay has lost four in a row and suspect defensive play is the main reason why. Philadelphia fell to 1-5 on the road this year after a 26-15 loss to Seattle, but the Eagles have been much better in front of the home town crowd. The Packers aren’t out of the conversation yet though as despite the shoddy play over the last month, they’re still only two games out of the top spot in the NFC North. As mentioned above though, poor defensive play has led to the slide, ranked 22nd in the NFL in terms of yards given up through the air. It’s true that Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers hasn’t looked like “himself” this season, but he’s still eighth in the league in passying yards. In their latest 42-24 loss to the Redskins on Sunday, Rodgers threw for 351 yards and three scores. Philadelphia has been a complete “Jekyll and Hyde” team this year, going 1-5 on the road and 4-0 at Lincoln Financial Field. Last time out Carson Wentz had 218 yards and two TD’s against the Seahawks. He also got picked off twice. But clearly Wentz and his offense catch a break today in facing the Packers atrocious pass coverage. I’ll point out that Green Bay has seen the total go over in four of its last five on the road, while Philadelphia has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of its last 13 against teams with losing records. To me, this one has the feel of more of a “track meet,” than a “chess match.” Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-16 | Stars v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 118 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Stars/Blues (8:00 EST). Both teams comes in off victories and I’m expecting each to carry that positive momentum over in this one. In my opinion, all signs point to a higher-scoring shootout. Note that the “over” is 4-0-3 the last seven in this series. Dallas is just 3-8 on the year and a struggling offense is the main reason why. The Stars have had to deal with a ton of injuries early though and as they get healthier, clearly the offense will pick up. Remember, Dallas finished among the league leaders in almost every single offensive category last season. The Stars have also been getting “hit-or-miss” goaltending this year, as Antti Niemi is 0-2 with a 5.55 GAA on the road. Note that Dalas is 29th in goals allowed, giving up 3.27 GPG. The Blues are 9-2 at home and have been riding red hot goaltender Jake Allen, who is 10-6 overall and 7-2 with a 1.42 GAA at home. Overall though St. Louis is in the bottom third defensively, allowing 2.68 GPG, which ranks 20th. I’ll point out that Dallas has seen the total go over in 22 of its last 40 when playing with two days rest, while St. Louis has seen the total sail above the posted number in five of eight against the division already this season. I’m expecting these rivals to push the pace from start to finish. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-16 | Thunder +1 v. Knicks | Top | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on OKC (7:30 EST). The 10-8 Oklahoma City Thunder are in New York to take on the 8-8 Knicks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. OKC comes in with momentum, it’s now won two straight after dispatching the Pistons 106-88 at home on Saturday. The Knicks enter off a 107-102 road loss at Charlotte on Saturday night. After dropping seven of their previous nine, the Thunder have seemingly turned the corner once again, perhaps most impressive in the win over the Pistons was that they’d hold them to just 45.1 percent shooting and only 1 of 19 from 3-point range. The Knicks have been better at home this year, but they’re still giving up an average of 106.3 PPG, ranked 22nd overall. I’ll point out that OKC is 4-2 ATS in its last six after a win by ten points or more, while New York is just 1-2 ATS in its last three against good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. I like Russell Westbrook and company to do just enough at the end of the night. Play on the Thunder. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-16 | Appalachian State v. Charlotte -8.5 | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on Charlotte (7:00 EST). After losing two in a row to open the season, the Appalachian State Mountaineers bounced by winning their next two, before then getting smoked 93-58 to Duke in their latest outing. Charlotte opened with three straight victories, but will be eager to return to the winners circle after two straight losses. The bottom line is, I simply can’t see the Mountaineers keeping pace with this high-flying 49ers offense which has scored over 100 points in three of five games this season. There’s no shame in losing to the Blue Devils obviously, but now App State has to contend with another high-powered offense in Charlotte. The Mountaineers are led by Ronshad Shabazz, who is putting up 17.5 PPG. The 49ers average 95 PPG overall on 48 percent shooting from the field. They’ve been deadly from the outside as well, shooting 48 percent from behidn the arc. Keep your eyes on Jon Davis, who is averaging 23 PPG and is a fantastic 12 of 18 from behind the three-point line. I’ll point out that Appalachian State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning SU record, while Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference contests and 16-5 ATS in its last 21 in front of the home town crowd. I’m laying the points with confidence, play on the 49ers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-16 | Hawks -4 v. Lakers | Top | 94-109 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONF SUPER SIDE is on the Atlanta Hawks (9:35 EST). LA has lost four of its last five as it continues to deal with numerous injuries. D’Angelo Russell has already missed the last three games and forward Julius Randle and guard Nick Young were both out in Friday’s 24 point loss to the Warriors. If Young or Randle do somehow manage to play today, clearly they won’t be at 100% capacity. The Hawks will look to take advantage and also to avenge a 123-116 loss at home to the Lakers on November 2nd. Atlanta will look to push the pace as LA is allowing an average of 111.9 PPG, which ranks it 28th in the league (in fact, opponents are shooting 48.7 percent, which ranks the Lakers dead last). The Hawks will be especially motivated here, they’re 10-6 and still lead the Southeast Division, but have lost four of their last five, including a humbling 95-68 beatdown loss to the Jazz on Friday. I’ll point out though that Atlanta is 19-11 ATS in its last 30 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while LA is just 3-5 ATS against clubs with winning records this season. I think there are enough situational and motivational factors working in favor of the visitors today to confidently pull the trigger on this top rated 10* selection. Play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3 | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 156 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 12 Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Broncos a 8:35 ET. The AFC West and the NFC East are the NFL’s two toughest divisions. The NFC East’s worst team is the 5-5 Eagles and the AFC West’s cellar-dweller is the 4-6 Chargers. The NFC East has a combined 27 wins and the AFC West owns 26. The surprising (shocking, is more like it) Oakland Raiders lead the AFC West at 8-2 with the Chiefs and Broncos breathing down their necks at 7-3, each. The Chiefs and Broncos meet Sunday in Denver (Week 12) and then in Week 16, the teams will play in Kansas City. A sweep by either team would be YUGE for the winner and could conceivably cost the loser a wild card berth. The defending Super Bowl champs were almost positive that Peyton would retire and tried to come to terms with Brock Osweiler. However, he signed a four-year, $72 million contract with the Texans, that will pay him $37 million in the first two years that is fully guaranteed for practical purposes. Stealing a line from Garth Brooks, “some of God’s greatest gifts are often unanswered prayers!” Osweiler has been a YUGE disappointment, as he’s averaging only 187.4 YPG passing for Houston with 12 TDs and 10 INTs (awful QB rating of 74.9). The undrafted Trevor Siemian is no star but he’s put up numbers slightly better than Osweiler and the Broncos have an extra $72 million in the bank! |
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11-27-16 | Flames v. Flyers OVER 5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONF TOP TOTAL is the on the OVER Flames/Flyers (7:30 EST). Calgary comes into this one with a ton of confidence after winning three of its last four, most recently posting a 2-1 victory over the Bruins on Friday. The Flyers high-flying offense will be looking to solve Flames’ red hot netminder Chad Johnson, who is 5-1 with a 1.17 GAA in his last six games. And Philadelphia will surely be hungry here as it’s lost three of four. Goaltender Steve Mason is 5-8-3 with an .892 save percentage after a 3-2 loss to the Rangers on Friday. That ranks third-worst among NHL goalies with 12 or more starts. Note though that Philadelphia has had 40 or more shots in a game five times this season. I’ll point out that Calgary has seen the total go over the number in 18 of its last 26 road games where the total is five or less, while Philadelphia has seen the total go over in all five non-conference contests this season. I’m expecting a wide-open affair and for this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-16 | San Jose State v. Washington State -9.5 | 88-76 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Washington State (6:00 EST). The 1-3 San Jose State Spartans are at Washington State to take on the 3-2 Cougars and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Spartans enter off their third straight loss, falling 81-64 at Saint Mary’s on Tuesday night. Washington State would lose for the second time in three games in an 88-79 setback to Loyola-Chicago in the fifth-place game of the Paradise Jam Classic on Monday. So far San Jose State has struggled with offensive consistency, averaging just 63.3 PG, which ranks it 311th in the country. The defense is only marginally better, conceding 78 PPG, which ranks 278th overall. The Cougars didn’t do very well in the Paradise Jam Classic, but they do average 78.6 PPG thus far, ranked 106th. Defensively though the team has struggled, conceding 79 PPG, which ranks it 291st. Overall the offense has looked decent, as the team has shot a solid 49.2 percent from the floor collectively. Keep your eyes on Josh Hawkinson, who averages 17.6 points, 11 boards and 1.8 blocks per contest. I’ll point out that the Spartans are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the PAC-12, while the Cougars are 4-0 ATS their last four against the Mountain West and 4-0 ATS against teams with a win percentage below .400. San Jose State struggles to put points on the board and also in the rebounding department and I think that spells trouble tonight. The Cougars have a big opportunity to improve their defensive stats and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-16 | Jaguars v. Bills -7.5 | 21-28 | Loss | -102 | 48 h 9 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Buffalo Bills (1:00 EST). The 2-8 Jacksonville Jaguars are in Buffalo to take on the 5-5 Bills and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the home side. The Jags enter off a 26-19 road loss to the Lions, while the Bills beat the Bengals 16-12 last time out. The home side plays with revenge today after falling to Jacksonville by a score of 34-31 last year. The Jaguars come in deflated, they’ve now dropped five straight and QB Blake Bortles has regressed as the season has progressed. Last week he was 22 of 35 for 202 yards, two TD’s but also two INT’s. Bortles has now thrown four picks in his last three games. Not surprisingly, the Jags rank near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, averaging just 19.3 PPG overall, ranked 27th. But note to be outdone, the defense has also struggled, conceding an average of 26.6 PPG, ranked 25th. Buffalo broke a three-game slide and overcame some injuries to knock of Cincinnati last time out. QB Tyrod Taylor had 166 yards, no TD’s and no INT’s. The offense took a hit when leading receiver Robert Woods went down with a knee injury, but the good news for us today is that dynamic RB LeSean McCoy will definitely be suiting up after also taking an injury scare with his thumb. Despite all of the injuries, the Bills are still averaging 25.3 PPG, ranked 10th overall, while the defense has given 21.5 PPG, ranked 13th. I’ll point out that Jacksonville is just 2-3 ATS on the road this year and only 8-10 ATS in its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Buffalo is already 3-1 ATS this season against teams with losing records. The Jags have had a very difficult time slowing down the run this year, which spells doom against the No. 1 ranked rush offense in the league which averages 157 yards per game. I’m expecting the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-16 | Bengals v. Ravens -3.5 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 48 h 9 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EST). The 3-6-1 Cincinnati Bengals are in Baltimore to take on the 5-5 Ravens and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Cincinnati comes in off consecutive losses and to add insult to injury, the team lost the services of both top WR AJ Green and RB Giovani Bernard to potential season ending injury. Last week Bengals QB Andy Dalton was 24 of 43 for 207 yards and a TD, while also throwing two INT’s. Jeremy Hill had 62 yards on the ground, but now faces the league’s best rush-defense. After consecutive home victories, the Ravens would go on the road and lose to the Cowboys. Home sweet home as far as Baltimore is concerned. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh isn’t fooling around this week: “If we don’t start beating the Bengals, we’re not going to win any division championships and that’s especially true this year. We have had to play without players. Everyone has to play without players. That is just the way it goes. It is going to be a really good football team that is going to come out of that tunnel, and our job is to be better.” I’ll point out that Cincinnati is 0-4 ATS in its last four away from friendly confines, while Baltimore is is interestingly, 6-0 ATS in its last six against the AFC North. Injuries don’t normally have a huge impact on a game, but I think the loss of Green and Bernard will simply be too much for the already struggling Bengals to overcome. The Ravens have played much better at home this year and I’m expecting that trend to continue on Sunday. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-16 | Cardinals +5 v. Falcons | Top | 19-38 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 9 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Cardinals (1:00 EST). The 4-5 Arizona Cardinals are in Atlanta to take on the 6-4 Falcons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. It’s essentially “do-or-die” for the Cards, who have lost two of three. Last week they fell 30-24 at Minnesota. The hungry visitors will now look to take advantage of a Falcons team which is coming off its bye. Two weeks ago Atlanta fell 24-15 at Philadelphia. Arizona looked decent last week though, posting 24 first downs and running for 135 yards against Minnesota’s tough front seven. The special teams though surrendered a 104-yard kickoff return for a TD. QB Carson Palmer was 20 of 38 for 198 yards and two TD’s. The offense has struggled this year, but clearly catches a break in facing the Falcons’ suspect secondary. The Cardinals defense though ranks No. 1 in the league in yards per game at just 287.4. Two weeks ago Atlanta RB Devonta Freeman had just 49 yards on 12 carries. Atlanta’s strength is clearly its offense, which ranks first in points at 32 per game. However, as mentioned above the defense has been an absolute disaster in allowing 28.3 PPG. I’ll point out that Arizona is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog, while Atlanta is just 4-16 ATS in its last 20 as a favorite. I think that “rest leads to rust” for the home side and I expect the desperate visitors to at the very least, keep this one close enough to score the cover at the end of the night. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-16 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -11.5 | 63-31 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT is on SDSU (9:00 EST). The 6-5 Colorado State Rams are at San Diego State to take on the 9-2 Aztecs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. SDSU looks to bounce back off just its second loss of the season after falling 34-33 at Wyoming last weekend. Colorado State finally became bowl eligible with last week’s 49-31 over New Mexico and I think will have a predictable letdown in this spot. Here is how satisfied the Rams are right now: “Really just an awesome night,” head coach Mike Bobo said. “For our community, for our university, for every Rams fan that has ever witnessed a game here, for any player that has ever played, it was a great night.” SDSU on the other hand will be in a foul mood and looking to take out its frustrations on someone. QB Christian Chapman was 15 of 26 for 211 yards and two TD’s, while RB Donnel Pumphrey also had a big game last week. I’ll point out that Colorado State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while SDSU is 4-1 ATS at home and 7-4 ATS when playing the role of favorite. As mentioned off the top, this sets up perfectly as a “trap” for the visitors, while the motivated home side ends the season on a high note. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-16 | Canadiens -128 v. Red Wings | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Montreal Canadiens (7:00 EST). No need to overthink this one. Detroit comes in off an exhausting 5-4 OT win at New Jersey just last night and would go on to lose starting goaltender Jimmy Howard to injury in the process. Despite a 5-5-0 record, Howard has a 1.82 GAA and .940 save percentage. Petr Mrazek got the win in relief and has started only one of the past nine games. Note that he’s given up four goals in each of his past four starts, going 0-3-1. Montreal enters off a 2-1 win over the Hurricanes at home on Thursday and will be looking to start its five-game road trip with a big win on Saturday night: "It's a trip that's coming at just the right time for us," Montreal coach Michel Therrien told the Canadiens website. "It's going to be tough. We'll face good teams, and I'm eager to see how we respond. We've been playing with confidence, but we'll take things one game at a time," I’ll point out that Montreal is 7-3 (+2.3 units) in its last ten against the division and 5-2 (+2.6 units) against teams with losing records, while Detroit is interestingly, just 1-6 (-6.4 units) this season after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Canadiens. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-16 | James Madison +4 v. George Mason | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on James Madison (6:00 EST). The 0-5 James Madison Dukes look to get off the schneid as the get ready to battle the 3-3 George Mason Patriots. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Madison enters off an 82-70 home loss to UL Lafayette, while George Mason beat Bradley 77-66 in its lastest action. When these teams played last year, the Dukes prevailed 69-46. James Madison is on the cusp in my opinion, there were some silver linings in its setback to UL-Lafayette, as the team would go on to hit 49 percent collectively. Jackson Kent led the way with 16 points. Joey McLean leads the Dukes with an average of 13 PPG overall. Otis Livingston II had a career high 22 points in the Patriots latest victory. George Mason has a ton of young talent, but is still predicted to finish near the bottom of the A10 Conference this year. I’ll point out that James Madison is still 19-7 ATS in its last 26 on the road (despite the slow start this season), and 6-4 ATS in its last ten after allowing 80 points or more, while George Mason is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 when playing the role of favorite and just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 in front of the home town crowd. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-16 | Appalachian State -17.5 v. New Mexico State | 37-7 | Win | 100 | 46 h 44 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on App State (4:00 EST). The 8-3 Appalachian State Mountaineers are at New Mexico State to take on the 3-7 Aggies and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Last week the Mountaineers pulled away for a 42-17 win over UL-Monroe, while NMSU took out Texas State 50-20. Last Saturday App State posted 637 total yards of offense, including 429 on the ground. RB Marcus Sox had 153 rushing yards and three major scores off just 21 touches. The Mountaineers come into this one averaging 28.4 PPG, while conceding just 17.9. Note that App State has held its opposition to 333.8 total yards per contest with just 123.8 coming on the ground. The Aggies have nothing to play for and I think after last week’s epic beatdown victory, that they’ll have a predictable letdown here. QB Tyler Rogers was a stand out, throwing for 186 yards and three TD’s. The offense though averages 26.3 PPG, which is decent. But not when compared to the amount of points that the defense gives up (39.4). I’ll point out that App State is 4-1 ATS on the road this year, while NMSU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records. The Aggies can’t stop the run, which spells doom versus the Mountaineers powerful run game. I’m expecting a complete rout in all three phases of the game. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-16 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 46 h 43 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Oregon State (4:00 EST). The 4-7 Oregon Ducks are at Oregon State to take on the 3-8 Beavers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Both teams have been eliminated from Bowl contention, but this is “senior night” for the home side. These two teams hate each other and the pro-Beaver crowd will be out in full force. The Ducks are poised for a big letdown after their big upset over No. 12 Utah last week, somehow managing the 30-28 win. QB Justin Herbert was 30 of 43 for 324 yards and three TD’s. Oregon State also comes off an upset win, beating the Wildcats 42-17 last Saturday. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Ducks have taken eight straight in the series. I’ll point out that Oregon is just 1-5 ATS as a favorite this year and just 2-6 ATS against the confernece, while Oregon State is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 6-2 ATS against the conference. I’m expecting the home side to ride the wave of emotion and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-16 | Tulane v. Connecticut OVER 37 | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
My 10* CFB Week 13 Goin' Over Total is on Tulane/UConn Over at 4:00 ET. The season can't come to a close soon enough for 3-8 UConn, which takes a five-game losing streak into its season-finale at home against Tulane. The Huskies haven’t scored a TD in their last 10 quarters and will take the field as the lowest-scoring team of all 128 FBS schools at 15.0 PPG. Tulane plays its final game of 2016 as well, with a similar 3-8 record but the Green Wave are one of just five schools still winless in conference play, heading into this Thanksgiving weekend. Tulane checks in at 0-7 in AAC play, after getting shut out last Saturday at home 31-0 by Temple. Tulane’s defense allowed the Owls to go on TD drives of 75, 78 and 84 yards in the second half of last week's 31-0 shellacking. Just the week before, Tulane moved the ball well against a rugged Houston defense, passing for 241 passing yards on 42 attempts but the inconsistency at the QB position struck again against last Saturday, as Glen Cuiellette was 3-for-12 passing for 17 yards against Temple. Dontrell Hilliard leads the Green Wave with 759 yards on the ground (5.6 YPC and 9 TDs), for a unit averaging 225.6 YPG (25th), on 4.6 YPC. UConn: The Huskies gave QB Donovan Williams his second straight start last week at Boston College but the freshman threw three interceptions and the Huskies were limited to 121 yards of offense in the 30-0 whitewashing. "It's hard to win and when you don't have production on one side of the ball it becomes impossible," UConn coach Bob Diaco told reporters after the game. "It'll be fixed." It seems Diaco has given up on veteran QB Shirreffs, who completed 58.7% with just 7 TDs and 6 INTs. Competing without a running game (UConn averages 111.3 YPG on 3.1 YPC), makes it tough on any QB, no less ones like Shirreffs or freshman Williams, who is getting “on the job training.” So why go over? Both teams will be highly motivated to end their seasons on a winning note and after holding its first two AAC foes to just 22.5 PPG, Tulane's defense has allowed its last five league opponent an average of 36.6 PPG. Surely, I don’t expect UConn to score in the 30s but remember, this over/under number is only in the high 30s! Tulane was shut out last week but entered that game averaging 25.1 PPG on the season and up against a UConn defense allowing 27.2 PPG on the year, should find its way into the end zone. I’m going out on a limb and calling for this game to be ‘over’ before the start of the 4th quarter. Good luck...Larry |
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11-26-16 | Notre Dame +17.5 v. USC | 27-45 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 14 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Notre Dame (3:30 EST). The 4-7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are in Southern California to take on the 8-3 Trojans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the vistors. I think USC is poised for a letdown in facing the the struggling Irish after winning seven straight, most recently getting the better of UCLA 36-14 last Saturday. Notre Dame is playing for pride now, falling 34-31 to Virginia Tech last weekend. At one point the Irish had a 17-0 lead in the first half last Saturday, but they’d go on to fall apart down the stretch. There were a few silver linings though, like the 449 yards of total offense, including 200 on the ground. QB DeShone Kizer was 16 of 33 for 235 yards and two TD’s. The Notre Dame offense comes into the final portion of the season averaging a very respectable 418.5 YPG. USC will need to win this game and have Utah beat Colorado to secure the Pac-12 South. Last week QB San Darnold was 25 of 36 for 267 yards and two TD’s. But he also had two INT’s. I’ll point out that Notre Dame is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 when playing the role of underdog, while USC is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games. I think the Irish offense can match pace with the high-flying Trojans as Notre Dame trys to play spoiler and end the season on a high note. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-16 | Arizona State -2.5 v. Arizona | Top | 35-56 | Loss | -122 | 52 h 39 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Arizona State (9:30 EST). The 5-6 Arizona State Sun Devils are at Arizona to take on the 2-9 Wildcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors ASU. One of these team’s still has a shot at a bowl spot, while the other has nothing at all to play for. ASU fell 44-18 at No. 6 Washington last week, while Arizona lost its eighth straight in a 42-17 loss to Oregon State. The Sun Devils were 5-1 at one point earlier in the year and enter this one off five straight losses. The offense is decent though, averaging 33.2 PPG, ranked 44th in the nation. The defense gives up 38.4 PPG. QB Manny Wilkins has nine TD’s and eight picks. The Wildcats have major issues on both sides of the ball, ranked 115th in the nation in scoring offense with 22.1 PPG, the defense is even worse, allowing 38.6 PPG, ranked 120th. QB Brandon Dawkins has seven TD’s and six INT’s. I’ll point out that the Sun Devils are interestingly 4-1 ATS in their last five after posting less than 275 totals yards in their last game, while the Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four after scoring less than 20 points in their previous contest. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, I’m backing the desperate visiting side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-16 | Red Wings v. Devils -134 | 5-4 | Loss | -134 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the New Jersey Devils (7:35 EST). Both teams enter this one off shootout victories which snapped long losing slides. Each is dealing with a rash of injuries as well. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. Detroit somehow managed a 2-1 win over the Sabres on Modnay despite getting outshot 33-24. Note that it was the just the Red Wings third win in their last 12 games. Detroit has the league’s fifth-worst offense The Devils can empathize though, they opened the season 9-3-3, but lost three straight in regulation to end a four-game road trip. Sometimes the first game back from a lenghty trip can set up as a trap/letdown scenario, but New Jersey would step up and posted a 5-4 shootout victory over the Leafs on Wednesday. I’ll point out that Detroit is just 2-5 (-2.6 units) this year following a divisional contest, while New Jersey is 8-4 (+4.6 units) in its last 12 against clubs with losing records and interestingly, 3-1 (+2.4 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest (5-4 shootou win over the Leafs). I’m looking for the home side to come in focused and to take advantage of this favorable situation and all things considered, I do indeed feel this is a great price. Play on New Jersey. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-16 | Morehead State v. Pittsburgh -12 | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Pittsburgh (7:00 EST). 2-2 Morehead State is at Pittsburgh to take on the 4-1 Panthers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. If history is any precedence, then Pittsburgh has to be loving its chances today as it’s won 12 straight non-conference home games against unranked opponents (note that the Panthers are in fact 130-5 overall at the Peterson Events Center in non-conference action). One player to keep your eyes on today is the Panthers’ Michael Young, who was named the ACC Player of the Week in each of the first two weeks of the season. He, along with Jamel Artis, have topped the 20-point plateua in each of the past three outings. The Panthers struggled a bit against Yale last time out, but clamped down at the end and recorded the 75-70 decision, not even coming close to covering the 12 point spread though. Young was a stand out, finishing with 24 points, ten boards and three assists, to go along with a career-high four blocks. Morehead State comes into this one discombobulated, still reeling from the off-court distraction of head coach Sean Woods being suspended. Assistant Coach Preston Spradlin will serve as bench in the interim until the investigation is completed. The Eagles have failed in consecutive road contests and face a stiff test tonight. Last year Morehead State fell 72-62 at Pittsburgh. And in their last two losses the Eagles have shot just 37 percent in the second half. Xavier Moon has been a standout, scoring in double figures in three of four games. After their slow start out of the gates against the Bulldogs last time out, I think the deeper and more talented Panthers put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-16 | Texas Tech +5.5 v. Baylor | 54-35 | Win | 100 | 48 h 59 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Texas Tech (6:00 EST). The 6-4 Baylor Bears are at Texas Tech to take on the 4-7 Red Raiders and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Baylor lost its fourth straight in a listless 42-21 setback to Kansas State last week, while Texas Tech lost its third in a row in a 66-10 setback at Iowa State. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think, as the Bears have won the last five in a row, including last year’s 63-35 home victory. Baylor started the year 6-0, but significant injuries to key players has resulted in the four-game slide. Last week it was outgained 414-368. Overall the Bears ranked 28th in the nation in scoring offense with 36.3 PPG, led by Seth Russell, who has 20 TD’s and eight INT’s, to go along with 500 yards rushing and another eight scores. But Russell broke his ankle earlier in the month. That means that Zach Smith runs the offense (5 TD’s, 3 INT’s). Texas Tech will look to atone for last week’s humbling setback, it still leads the nation with 451.8 YPG through the air and is scoring 42.7 PPG. The defense has been the weak point, allowing 44.3 per contest. I’ll point out though that the Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four against the conference, while the Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four following an ATS loss. With Russell out of the mix, I’m expecting the home side to take advantage and at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door once it’s all said and done. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-16 | Washington v. Washington State +6 | 45-17 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 20 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State (3:30 EST). The winner of this game will clinch the Pac-12 North title and earn a spot in the conference title contest on December 2nd. And if Washington wins this one, it’ll still be in line for a spot among the top four teams in the country. Washington State though will look to play spoiler and while I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Cougars are coming off their first conference loss of the year in a 38-24 serback at Colorado last weekend. After starting the year 0-2, Washington State would post eight straight wins before last week’s letdown. The defense has made major strides and the offense is led by QB Luke Falk. The Huskies are led by QB Jake Browning who directs the Pac 12’s No. 1 offense, while the defense has yet to allow 28 points this year. But I think Falk and the Nation’s second ranked passing attack can hang with Browning today. Falk benefits from a run game which averages 4.6 yards per game, so the Huskies will have to play “honest.” To say this is a revenge game would be a bit of an understatement as well, as Washington won 45-10 last season and 31-13 in 2014. Falk did not play in last year’s game due to injury, so will be extra motivated here. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-16 | Steelers v. Colts OVER 47 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Steelers/Colts (8:30 EST). The 5-5 Pittsburgh Steelers are in Indianapolis for the night game on Thanksgiving to take on the 5-5 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. Pittsburgh is looking to build off its 24-9 win over the winless Browns last week, while the Colts are also hoping that they can keep the momentum rolling after their 24-17 home win over the Titans. Indianapolis is also out to atone for a 45-10 loss to Pittsburgh last year. Last week Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger had just 167 yards, zero TD’s and zero INT’s. Overall though Big Ben is having a solid season with a 20 to 7 TD to INT ratio. Pittsburgh RB Le’Veon Bell had a big game though last week, going for 146 yards. One other player to keep your eyes on is WR Antonio Brown, who will look to exploit this Colts’ suspect secondary and build off his eight catch, 76 yard performance from last week. Note that the Steelers rank in the middle of the pack on both sides of the ball to date. Like the Steelers, the Colts are still very much alive at 5-5 to win their division. Last week QB Andrew Luck had 262 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. Luck has 19 TD’s to eight INT’s thus far. WR TY Hilton had five grabs for 97 yards and a TD last week. Luck will be sitting this one out with injury, but I’m expecting Scott Tolzien to fill in effectively and he and Hilton will be looking to exploit a weak Steelers secondary (note that the Colts’ offense is ranked seventh overall with 26.3 PPG). Indianpolis’ weakness though is clearly on the defensive side as the unit concedes an average of 27.3 PPG, ranked 26th overall. I’ll point out that Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five against the AFC South division, while Indianapolis has seen the total sail above the posted number in five of six as an underdog this season. Neither defense has impressed to this point and nothing should change on the short week and on the national stage. I’m expecting Roethlisberger and Tolzien to duke it out till the end, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-16 | LSU -4.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 54-39 | Win | 100 | 98 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* TOP THANKSGIVING SIDE is on LSU (7:30 EST). LSU comes into this one in a foul mood as it failed to get into the endzone in the final moments in a 16-10 setback to Florida last week. RB Leonard Fournette had just 40 yards on 12 carries. Texas A&M on the other hand looks poised for a letdown here after it broke a two game slide with an ugly 23-10 win over UTSA last week. QB Jake Hubenak had 248 yards and a TD. LSU QB Danny Etling has been consistent since taking over for Brandon Harris and the team will be leaning heavily on him if Fournette is unable to play today. The Aggies though are definitely hurting without starting QB Trevor Knight, which doesn’t bode well in facing the Tigers’ top ranked defensive unit. The bottom line though, even if Fournette can’t play, the Tigers are going to win the run game today. LSU is also better equipped at stopping the run, which will put all the pressure on Hubenak to perform. It’s a recipie for disaster for the home side. I’m banking on the Tigers to play to their strengths and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-16 | Redskins +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 69 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Redskins (4:30 EST). These NFC East rivals battle on Thursday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Kirk Cousins and the “under the radar” Washington Redskins. Dallas has a 2.5 game lead over Washington for the division lead, but the Redskins play with revenge today after falling earlier in the season to the Cowboys. Dallas has been getting all the headlines of late, but note that Washington has just one loss over its last nine weeks, posting some victories over the NFC’s top teams and only losing only to the first-place Lions on a last-second come from behind setback. The Redskins enter off a convincing 42-24 thrashing of the Packers on Sunday. Washington has the league’s No. 2 offense, with the No. 1 ranked run game, averaging 27 PPG. Cousins has 16 TD passes and four INT’s in that span. Dallas has scored fewer than 27 points just once since Week 2 and rookie QB Dak Prescott is being touted by many as the MVP league right now. The Cowboys also have a strong run game and defense, which makes them difficult to handle when they’re playing with a lead. I’ll point out though that Washington is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range (including 2-0 ATS this season), while Dallas is interestingly, just 1-2 ATS in its last three “Thursday night” contests. I’m expecting Cousins and Prescott to slug this one out blow for blow and in a contest which I foresee coming down to whoever has the ball in their hands last, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-16 | Vikings +2.5 v. Lions | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -104 | 65 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Minnesota Vikings (12:30 EST). The 6-4 Minnesota Vikings are in Detroit to take on the 6-4 Lions on Thursday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Vikes finally got back into the win column after pulling away for a 30-24 win over Arizona last weekend. The Lions have won two straight and five of six after besting Jacksonville 26-19. Minnesota though plays with revenge today after falling 22-16 to Detroit on November 6th. The Vikes defense and special teams once again came up big last week, returning an INT for a major score, as well as posting a 104-yard kickoff return for a TD by Cordarelle Patterson. QB Sam Bradford was 20 of 28 for 169 yards and a TD. Bradford has 12 TD’s and just two picks this season. Minnesota ranks third on defense, but last on offense. It’s very interesting to note that Detroit has outscored its opponents by just six points this year. The Lions have in fact been down in all ten games this season in the fourth quarter. QB Matt Stafford was 24 of 33 for 278 yards and no TD’s last week. Detroit would go on ot post just 14 yards rushing off 21 carries. Detroit ranks a poor 25th overall in total offense, while the defense ranks 19th. Note that Minnesota is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 as an underdog (including 2-1 ATS this year) and 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Detroit is only 4-8 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories and only 6-9 ATS in its last 15 against the division (including 1-2 ATS this year). I think the stage is for the visitors to score an outright upset, but that said, grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-16 | Raptors +3 v. Rockets | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Toronto Raptors (8:05 EST). Toronto has struggled defensively of late, but has still averaged 113 points over its last five games. Most recently the Raptors fell 123-115 to the Clippers in LA on Monday night: "It seems like everybody we've played the last couple weeks we've turned it into an offensive slugfest," Raptors coach Dwane Casey said. "Until we get defense in the game and maintain in the game (things will remain the same). I think our guys are trying. They're trying defensively but we're not getting it done. We're not getting stops when we need to." Houston is poised for a letdown here after three straight victories, most recently a 99-96 win at Detroit on Monday night. The Rockets’ James Harden is having a tremendous season, but note that he’s shooting just 73.9 percent from the line over the last four games. The Raptors’ DeMar DeRozan continues to lead the league in scoring, so I’m calling him and Harden a “wash” tonight. I’ll point out though that Toronto is 4-1 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog, while Houston is a deplorable 13-21 ATS in its last 34 after three or more consecutive victories. With a large Western road trip starting on Thursday night, I think that the home side gets caught looking ahead and the hungry Raptors at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-16 | Stars v. Predators -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Nashville Predators (8:05 EST). Dallas is 8-7-5 this year and just finished a four-game homestand on Monday with a satisfying 3-2 OT win over the Wild. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Antti Niemi stopped 27 shots and it was his first win since November 3rd. Note that he owns a poor 3.17 GAA thus far. Nashville started slowly, but has started to turn things around, most recently coming off a 3-1 win over Tampa Bay on Monday. Defensemen PK Subban scored twice and goaltender Pekka Rinne made 24 saves. Rinne is 7-5-3 on the year with a tiny 2.04 GAA and .933 save percentage. I’ll point out that Dallas is just 2-6 its last eight on the road, just 2-11 in its last 13 after allowing two goals or less in its previous game and just 1-6 in its last seven following a victory, while Nashville is 4-1 in its last five when playing on one days rest. This is a revenge game for Nashville after falling 2-1 to the visiting Stars back on October 18th. It’s payback time, lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-16 | St. John's v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Michigan State (7:00 EST). The 2-2 Michigan State Spartans are in the Bahama’s for the bracketed portion of Battle 4 Atlantis and takes on 2-1 St. John’s. For a number of different reasons I think this one favors MSU. The Spartans have started the season with arguably the toughest schedule in College basketball history and without question in MSU history. Note that it has upcoming games against No. 1 Kentucky, No. 6 Duke, No. 8 Arizona and a potential matchup against No. 10 Louisville all in November alone. Note though that this isn’t a stage which will be too big for the Spartans, as they would defeat Providence 77-64 to win the Wooden Legacy in Anaheim in non conference tourney action last season. One player to keep your eyes on today is MSU’s Eron Harris, who is shooting 11 of 14 from 3-point range over the last two games. The Red Storm are just 10-25 under coach Chris Mullin. St. John’s is averaging 87.7 points through its first three games, led by freshman guards Marcus LoVett and Shamorie Ponds. Note though that Michigan State’s freshman class of Miles Bridges, Joshua Langford, Nick Ward and Cassius Winston is widely regarded as one of the top recruiting classes in the nation I’ll point out that St. John’s is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 80 points or more and only 4-6 ATS in its last ten after scoring 80 points or more, while MSU is 38-23 ATS in its last 61 when playing the role of favorite and despite the slow start this season, is still 20-14 ATS in its last 34 non-conference contests. After a slow start to the season, I look for the more talented Spartans to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-16 | Pelicans v. Hawks OVER 209.5 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Goin’ Over Total is the over Pelicans/Hawks (7:35 EST). The 4-10 New Orleans Pelicans are in Atlanta to take on the 8-6 Hawks and for a number of different reasons, I’m expecting a “shootout” between the teams. The Pelicans enter off their second straight win and third in their last four after beating the Hornets 121-116 in OT on Saturday. Atlanta is looking to bounce back after losing its second straight in a listless 104-94 loss to the Knicks on Sunday. Last year the Hawks took both games against the Pelicans. In New Orleans’ most recent victory, big man Anthony Davis led the way with 38 points, 16 rebounds and three blocks. The Pelicans average 102.5 PG, but are giving up 107.6 thus far. Next in line after Davis is E’Twaun Moore, with 11.7, while Tim Frazier adds 11.3 points and 7.6 assists. Atlanta looks to shake out of this sluggish patch, note that it’s still 13th in the league in scoring with a respectable 105.8 per game. The defense has been the stretngth, allowing just 98.8 thus far. Paul Millsap leads the way with 17.5 points, plus 7.9 boards and 3.8 assists per game. Note that the Hawks also rank 13th in the league with 8.8 made three pointers a night. I’ll point out that New Orleans has seen the total go over the number in four of six non-conference games this year, while Atlanta has seen the total sail above the posted number in five of its last eight as a home fav in the 6.5 to nine points range. The Pelicans have looked a lot better since Jrue Holiday returned to the lineup and the Hawks are going to have to push the pace to match the resurgent visitors. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-16 | Hurricanes +114 v. Maple Leafs | 2-1 | Win | 114 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Carolina Hurricanes (7:05 EST). I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the surging Hurricanes, who I think can catch the Leafs napping this evening. Carolina most recently beat Winnipeg 3-1, marking its fourth straight win in a row. Toronto enters off a 2-1 loss at Montreal. After a horrible 3-10 start, the Hurricanes have beaten the Capitals, the Sharks, the Canadiens and the Jets. Elias Lindholm got his first goal of the year and goaltender Cam Ward improved to 6-7 with a 2.36 GAA last time out. Note that the Hurricanes are ranked 1st in the league on the penalty kill, allowing teams to convert on only 8.7 percent of their chances. Toronto ran out of gas against the Habs, it came into that one having scored six goals four times in its previous six games, but the offense came up short in the setback. Goaltender Frederik Andersen has been horrible, he’s 8-8 with a 3.09 GAA overall this year. I’ll poing out that Carolina is already 2-0 (+2 units) this season after playing three consecutive home games, while Toronto is just 3-4 (-1 unit) following a divisional contest. I like the Hurricanes to keep the foot on the gas and continue their recent trend of strong play. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-16 | Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Eastern Michigan (7:00 EST). The 6-5 Central Michigan Chippewas are at Eastern Michigan to take on the 6-5 Eagles and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Both are bowl eligible, but another victory would cement their chances. I think EMU makes the most of familiar surroundings and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Chips hold the all-time series lead 59-28-6, including four straight after edging EMU 35-28 in Mount Pleasant last year. After winning their first three games of the season, the Chipppewas would then drop five of seven and three straight, but snapped the slide with a bowl eligible clinching 27-20 home win over Ohio last week. Suffice it to say, I believe this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors today. And note, Ohio actually outgained CMU 357-286, but four turnovers to one would wind up being the difference. QB Cooper rush had 268 yards and two TD’s on 25 of 32 passing. Eastern Michigan hasn’t been in a bowl game since 1987, so clearly the team will be excited today. And after losing three of their last four, there’s no question that the Eagles will be the more motivated team. I’ll point out that Central Michigan is just 2-5 ATS against the conference this season and only 5-8 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival, while EMU is 4-2 ATS at home this year, 2-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival and a perfect 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records. There are many different factors which all point to Eastern Michigan as the correct move in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-16 | Yale v. Pittsburgh -10.5 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Pittsburgh (7:00 EST). The 2-1 Yale Bulldogs are taking on the 3-1 Pittsburgh Panthers on Tuesday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite. The Panthers come into this one off a big 78-75 win over Marquette after losing to St. Mary’s. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 2-0 start to the season, but managed just 38 points in a brutal loss to Virginia on Sunday. Yale would go on to shoot just 33.3 percent from the floor, the lone bright spot being sophomore Blake Reynolds who finished with ten points. One player you’ll definitely want to keep your eyes on today is Pittsburgh forward Michael Young, who was named the ACC Player of the Week for a second consecutive week. Young averaged 23.3 points, 7.3 boards, 2.0 assists and one block per game as Pitt went 2-1 in the 2K Classic. I’ll point out that Yale is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine against the ACC and a shocking 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss by more than 20 points, while Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 77 points or more in consecutive games. I think Young will be just too much for the Bulldogs to handle tonight, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-16 | UAB v. Kansas -19 | Top | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on Kansas (9:30 EST). The Jayhawks have something to prove tonight and will look to take advantage of the Blazers in the CBA Hall of Fame Classic. Kansas stumbled in its opener to No. 11 Indiana, but then bounced back to beat No. 1 Duke. Both were close games, but I’m expecting a wire-to-wire blowout effort this evening. Senior Frank Mason III has so far led the way in averaging 23 PPG for the No. 7 ranked Jayhawks. UAB also has a 2-1 record. The Blazers won the Conference USA title last season and have high hopes for a repeat performance in 2016/17 as well. Those hopes though took a hit when starting point guard Nick Norton suffered a knee injury in te first game, now gone for the remainder of the season. Four players average in double figures so far for UAB, but I think the talent level on Kansas is on an entirely different level. I’ll point out that the Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with a win percentage above .600, while the Blazers are just 1-4 ATS their last five overall. This is a total mismatch, as Kansas’ back court is one of the best in the nation. I like the Jayhawks to jump out to an early insurmountable lead and to keep the foot on the gas until the final few minutes. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-16 | Texans v. Raiders -5.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (8:30 EST). The 6-3 Houston Texans are in Mexico to take on the 7-2 Raiders and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Oakland. This game is being played at the sold-out Estadio Azteca, in what should be mostly a pro-Raider crowd. Houston enters off a win over the Jaguars and has won three of its last four. Oakland comes in rested and focused after its bye week and can sit alone atop the AFC West with a victory today after the Chiefs fell on Sunday. After an up and down start the Texans are atop the AFC South, last week QB Brock Osweiler threw two TD’s, despite only posting 99 passing yards. RB Lamar Miller had 83 yards off 15 carries. The Raiders continue to get little respect from the oddsmakers though in my opinion. Oakland’s offense is a well-oiled machine right now with QB Derek Carr leading a unit which has posted the seventh most yards from scrimmage in the NFL. Note that the Raiders haven’t lost a game following their bye week since 2011, so if recent history is any precedence, then the Silver and Black have to be loving their chances this evening. I’ll point out that Houston is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine Monday night games and interestingly, only 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 after posting more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game, while Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records. Houston has so far won the games that it’s “supposed” to, but when faced with upper tier competition, it’s struggled, going just 2-3 SU against teams with winning records. The Raiders easily handled the Broncos on the national stage two weeks ago, so clearly won’t be intimidated tonight. I like Carr and company to keep the momentum rolling, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-16 | Lightning v. Predators -115 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK in on the Nashville Predators (8:05 EST). The Lightning have won the first four games of their road trip, which is amazing considering the significant injuries they’ve sustained, most notably to captain Steven Stamkos, who lead the team in most offensive categories. Suffice it to say, I think this one sets up perfectly as a “letdown” spot for Tampa Bay this evening though and I’m expecting the hungry home side to take full advantage. The Predators are coming off a 3-1 loss in St. Louis on Saturday night to drop the team to 2-6-2 away from friendly confines. Their play at Bridgestone Arena though has been nothing short of spectacular, as Nashville is 5-1-1 in front of the home town crowd to date. This is a favorable part of the schedule for the Predators, who also welcome Dallas and Winnipeg at the end of the week. Keep your eyes on forward James Neal, who has seven goals in his last seven games. I’ll also point out that Tampa Bay is already just 2-3 (-1.7 units) this year after playing three consecutive road games, while Nashville is 4-1 (+3 units) against clubs with winning records. Great value, play on the Predators. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-16 | Suns v. Wizards UNDER 218.5 | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Suns/Wizards (7:05 EST). The 4-10 Phoenix Suns are at the 3-9 Washington Wizards on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The Suns have seen the O/U go 11-3 so far this year, while the Wizards have seen it go 8-4. Each plays a similar style, pushing the pace from start to finish and playing poorly on the defensive end. Both rank in the top 1/3rd on the offensive end and in the bottom 1/3rd on the defensive end. These are two “hungry” teams though and I think this massive sense of competition will translate into a “tighter” affair this evening. It’s interesting to note that Phoenix has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 20 against the Southeast division, while Washington has seen the total go under in 12 of its last 20 against the Pacific. The stage is finally set for more of a defensive affair between these normally high-scoring clubs, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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