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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-26-18 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 9 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the over White Sox/Angels (1:05 EST). The Angels annihilated the White Sox 11-3 yesterday and I’m expecting another high-scoring affair on Thursday afternoon as well. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Covey (4-5, 4.95 ERA) who comes in off a rare gem against the Mariners on Saturday, going 8.1 scoreless, giving up just two hits. It was his longest start of his career and the first time since early June that he’s gone more than five innings. Suffice it to say, I’m not reading too much into one decent outing. Note that he’s still just 2-4 with a ballooned 6.06 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Nick Tropeano (3-5, 4.58) who returned from the DL after the All Star break to give up two runs over five innings in an unfortunate loss to the Astros on Saturday. Tropeano missed the entire 2017 season due to injury. Note that he’s 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA at home this season. With these two volatile starters going head-to-head, everything points to an explosive, higher-scoring “slug-fest” in my opinion. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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07-25-18 | A's -110 v. Rangers | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland A’s (8:05 EST). Oakland mounted an improbable come from behind 13-10 win over the Rangers last night and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Edwin Jackson (1-2, 2.93 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with six K’s over six innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Giants on Friday. The veteran though has been solid overall, having posted a quality effort in four of his five trips to the hill for his new team. Over 30.2 innings he’s posted the 2.93 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP to go along with 23 K’s. The home side counters with Martin Perez (2-4, 8.05) who gave up five runs off ten hits while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Indians on Friday. Perez for the most part has been a disaster this year, especially at home where he’s gone 1-1 with a ballooned 10.05 ERA. I’ll point out as well that Oakland is 33-21 (+19 units) on the road this year, while Texas is just 20-31 (-10.8 units) at home. Look for Jackson to continue his steady play and for Perez to slide again as the A’s jump all over this dejected Rangers side. Play on Oakland. Good luck…Larry |
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07-25-18 | Tigers v. Royals -130 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (9*) 2:15 EST I think the Royals will build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd (4-9, 4.62 ERA) who gave up one run over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Boyd stumbled down the stretch of the first half and he comes into this one with the sub-par 1-6, 5.77 ERA record on the road. The home side counters with Danny Duffy (6-8, 4.40) who gave up one run off five hits while striking out four over seven innings in a win over the Twins on Friday. Duffy has now allowed just one earned run to go along with 21 K’s over his last 20 innings of work. He’s also posted quality efforts in five of his last seven outings. I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing how well Duffy is throwing right now. Boyd had a decent outing in his first start back from the break, but I think he’ll stumble again here on the road. All things considered, a very fair price. Play on Kansas City. Good luck…Larry |
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07-25-18 | Nationals +110 v. Brewers | 7-3 | Win | 110 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (8*) 2:10 EST I had a play on Milwaukee last night and it would come from behind to knock off the Nationals. On Wednesday though I think the visitors will bounce back and find a way to get the job done. The Nats hand the ball to Tanner Roark (3-12, 4.87 ERA) who gave up four runs with five K’s over five innings in a loss to New York in his last start before the break. Roark’s win/loss record isn’t entirely indicative of how he’s performed this year, as he comes in sporting a 1.40 WHIP and a 98/43 K/W over 114.2 innings of work to this point. Also note that while he’s just 1-6 on the road, he’s posted a very respectable 3.62 ERA away from friendly confines this season. The home side counters with Freddy Peralta (4-1, 2.65), who has been called up to make this start. Peralta has looked sharp in his limited time in the big leagues, but clearly the rookie draws a tough task this afternoon. I think Roark gets back on track here with a solid effort after the break, while I believe the rookie Peralta will stumble finally against this revenge-minded and talented Nationals’ line-up. Play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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07-25-18 | Dodgers v. Phillies +110 | 3-7 | Win | 110 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (8*) 12:35 EST Philadelphia battled from behind and won 7-4 yesterday and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler (4-2, 3.45 ERA) who has been called up to make his first start of the second half. Buehler was decent in Triple-A, but he’s expected to be on a pitch count in this one. The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (7-6, 3.47) who gave up five runs off six hits while striking out two over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Padres on Friday. He’d give up four runs in the first and then was never able to catch up after that. Arrieta hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been solid in all home games with a 3-2, 3.02 ERA record to this point. I think Arrieta will bounce back at home (or at the very least, outlast his counterpart) and I look for the hungry Phillies to build off yesterday’s victory. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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07-24-18 | Nationals v. Brewers -102 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST). I don’t normally “flip flop” on a team (take one team one night and then go on the other team the following night), but as i’ve stated many times in the past, clearly MLB is the one sport in which you have to look at each game individually, because of the starting pitchers. And that’s the case on Tuesday, as I think the Brewers will in fact build off yesterday’s 6-1 victory with another winning effort. The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.29 ERA) who put together a phenomenal first half (considering he was 8-11 with a 5.43 ERA a year ago.) I have doubts on whether Hellickson can maintain his first half pace over the second though. The home side counters with Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.23) who was far from perfect over the first half, but who was solid none-the-less. Note that Guerra was especially good at home with a sharp 2.55 ERA as well. The Nationals are now 26-25 (-3.1 units) on the road this year and 49-50 overall. Milwaukee on the other hand is 32-20 (+10.3 units) in all home games and 57-45 overall. I think Guerra out-duels Hellickson, who looks poised for a “second half swoon.” Play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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07-24-18 | Dodgers v. Phillies -125 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). The Phillies look to bounce back after yesterday’s slim defeat with their ace on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda (7-5, 3.12 ERA) who after going 13-6 with a 4.22 ERA last season, has so far looked just as good this year as well. It’s hard to say anything negative about Maeda, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’s completely outclassed in this one. Philadelphia comes in confident sending Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.30) to the hill. Nola lost 2-0 to Miami in his final first half start, but he’s still thrown five straight quality starts and note that he’s been unbeatable at home to this point, going 8-0 with a tiny 1.71 ERA in friendly confines thus far. Maeda has been great, but Nola’s dominance at home is the difference maker in this one. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is a very fair price. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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07-24-18 | Red Sox v. Orioles +165 | 6-7 | Win | 165 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). I like the Orioles to bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-3 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Drew Pomeranz (1-3, 6.81 ERA), who after a lengthy stay on the DL and a few games in the minors, makes his return to the big leagues tonight. Pomeranz looked good in the minors, but I have a hard time seeing how he can be such a big favorite right out of the gate here, despite the Red Sox’ superior hitting line-up. Note that he’s 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in all night games this season. The home side counters with Yefry Ramirez (0-3, 3.09) who closed the first half with a gem against Texas, allowing only two hits with three walks and seven K’s over five scoreless innings of work. Ramirez now looks to build off his best start in the majors and improve upon his respectable 3.09 ERA and 24/9 K/W over 23.1 innings of work. This one has “u-p-s-e-t” written all over it. Play on Baltimore. Good luck…Larry |
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07-24-18 | Braves -140 v. Marlins | 3-9 | Loss | -140 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Atlanta Braves (12:10 EST). I think the Braves will build off yesterday’s 12-1 beatdown victory and find a way to get the job done on Tuesday afternoon as well. The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (7-6, 4.00 ERA) who went 6.1 scoreless in a victory over Arizona in his final first half start. He also had six K’s. He also only needed 79 pitches to get through the outing. Over his last two trips to the mound Teheran has now allowed one run spanning 13 innings of work. Note that he owns a respectable 3.86 ERA on the road thus far as well. The home side goes with Wei-Yin Chen (2-7, 5.75) who gave up one run off five hits and one walk while striking out eight in a loss to the Phillies in his final start before the All Star game. Previous to this gem though he’d been rocked for seven runs over 4.1 innings. Chen’s ERA is horrible and his 1.50 WHIP and 57/28 K/W over 72 innings is nothing to write home about either. Additionally I’ll point out that Atlanta is already 21-13 (+11 units) this year in all day games, while Miami is just 14-20 in all day contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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07-23-18 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Tigers/Royals (8:15 EST). A couple of struggling starters collide in the opener of this American League series and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring slug-fest. The visitors hand the ball to Francisco Liriano (3-5, 4.67 ERA) who exited his final start before the break early due to a back issue. Before he left that one he gave up one run over two innings. To go along with his unimpressive record and ERA over the first half, Liriano also sports an uninspiring 1.41 WHIP over 79 innings. Note that he’s just 2-3 with a 5.49 ERA in all night games as well. The home side counters with Heath Fillmyer (0-1, 3.45) who has looked decent in his limited time. But while his 3.45 ERA over 15.2 innings looks “ok,” note that his 1.47 WHIP and 7/8 K/W leave everything to be desired. These teams aren’t known for their offensive prowess, but with these two confirmed “gas cans” duelling it out, runs are going to be plentiful. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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07-23-18 | Nationals -120 v. Brewers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (9*) 8:10 EST Milwaukee was annihilated 11-2 at home by the Dodgers on Sunday and I think it’ll suffer another letdown here as well. Washington was busy at home with Atlanta over the weekend, but I look for it to get the job done here with veteran Gio Gonzalez on the mound. Gonzalez (6-6, 3.72 ERA) had his Saturday start postponed due to rain. In his final outing before the break he’d give up two runs with four K’s over six innings in a no-decision to Pittsburgh. He stumbled down the stretch before the break, but I think he’ll rebound here. The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (8-3, 3.68) who gave up two runs over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Pirates in his final first half start. Chacin has been sharp this year, but I think he’ll struggle against the Nationals’ big bats. Note as well that Milwaukee is just 2-6 in its last eight against left-handed starters, while Washington is 38-31 against right-handed starters this season. Lay the price, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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07-23-18 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Nationals/Brewers (8:10 EST). Milwaukee was annihilated 11-2 at home by the Dodgers on Sunday and clearly it’ll be looking for a much better performance out of its starting pitcher in the opener of this series. Washington was busy at home with Atlanta over the weekend and it’ll send veteran Gio Gonzalez to the hill in this one. Gonzalez (6-6, 3.72 ERA) had his Saturday start postponed due to rain. In his final outing before the break he’d give up two runs with four K’s over six innings in a no-decision to Pittsburgh. He stumbled down the stretch before the break, but I think he’ll rebound here. The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (8-3, 3.68) who gave up two runs over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Pirates in his final first half start. Chacin has been sharp this year and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to keep this one competitive. I’ll point out as well that Washington has already seen the total go under the number in 20 of 32 this year when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5 (also in 41 of 68 against right-handed starters), while Milwaukee has seen the total dip below the posted number in 22 of 35 when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5 and in 27 of 48 home games overall. Looks like we’ll have a bit of a “duel” on our hands in this one, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-23-18 | Cardinals v. Reds -130 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (8*) 7:10 EST For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Luis Castillo and the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Poncedeleon (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who makes his season debut here. Poncedeleon posted a complete game shutout in Triple-A action most recently, part of a four-game win streak. Clearly the sky is the limit for Poncedeleon, but I still think he’ll have his hands full in this one. Castillo (5-8, 5.49) looked decent in his final outing before the break, giving up two runs off five hits over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against St. Louis on Saturday. Castillo has been far from perfect this season, but he’s been at his best at home so far this year with a 3-3, 4.10 ERA record thus far. No excuses for Castillo in this one, who showed flashes of his 2017 brilliance over the first half, but who for the most part was a disappointment for Cincinnati. But here’s the perfect opportunity to get back on track. He’s rested out of the break and he’s facing a rookie in his debut. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-23-18 | Braves -130 v. Marlins | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8*) 7:10 EST Sean Newcomb started the year on fire for the Braves, but the crafty southpaw stumbled before the break. Jose Urena has pitched much better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but I still think he’s in over his head here. Newcomb (8-5, 3.51 ERA) had his first start back from the break postponed due to rain in Washington over the weekend. In his final start before the break he’d concede three runs over six innings in a loss to Arizona. The break though couldn’t have come at a better time for Newcomb, as I predict he comes out refocused with the extra time off. Note that he’s still 5-3 with a 3.79 ERA on the road this season and 6-2 with a 2.48 ERA in all night games. Urena (2-9, 4.39) was rocked for five runs off four hits with four walks over four innings in a loss to Philadelphia in his final first half start. As mentioned off the top, Urena has been better than what his win/loss record would point to, but note that he’s still 0-7 with a 4.26 ERA at home this year. I like Newcomb to at the very least match Urena and in a scenario like that, I think the hard-hitting Braves have a major advantage. Lay the price, play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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07-22-18 | Braves +215 v. Nationals | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Braves (1:35 EST). The Braves/Nationals was postponed on Saturday due to rain. Atlanta was one of the biggest surprises over the first half of the 2018 MLB season and I think it offers great value as a big underdog in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (7-5, 2.66 ERA) who earned a win over Toronto in his final start before the break, giving up five runs off six hits while striking out six over seven innings. Note that he had a shutout going into the seventh frame. To go along with his elite ERA, Foltynewicz also owns an elite 120/42 K/W over 101.2 frames of work (note as well that he’s 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA in all day games this season.) The home side counters with ace Max Scherzer (12-5, 2.41), who got the start for the NL in the All Star Game after posting a 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 182/34 K/W over 134.2 innings of work over the first half. It’s impossible to say anything negative about Scherzer, so I won’t bother. I simply expect that Foltynewicz, who comes in rested and on top form, will be able to match Scherzer inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the undervalued underdog. This one has “u-p-s-e-t” written all over it. Play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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07-22-18 | Indians -167 v. Rangers | 0-5 | Loss | -167 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Cleveland Indians (3:05 EST). The Tribe smashed the Rangers 16-3 yesterday and I think another beatdown is in the cards on Sunday afternoon as well. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Mike Clevinger (7-5, 3.47 ERA) who gave up five runs over six innings in a loss to the Yankees in his final start before the All Star Game. The break couldn’t have come at a better time for Clevinger, who definitely appeared to be running out of steam after an overall successful first half. Clevinger though has to be feeling confident here, as he comes in with a 4-2, 2.61 ERA record on the road thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 8.60) who gave up six runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the Red Sox in his final start before the break. To go along with his atrocious 8.60 ERA, note that Gallardo also owns a horrible 1.71 WHIP and pedestrian 20/13 K/W over just 30.1 innings of work. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 17-10 (+3.9 units) against left-handed starters this year, while Texas is 28-39 (-6.8 units) against right-handed starters. I’m expecting Clevinger to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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07-22-18 | Pirates v. Reds -120 | 9-2 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cincinnati Reds (1:10 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Matt Harvey and the home side. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Ivan Nova (5-6, 4.38 ERA) who left after 3.2 innings in a no-decision to the Brewers in his final start before the All Star Game, giving up one run off seven hits. Nova’s been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned, but one thing which is definitely certain is that he’s been much better at home (2.92 ERA), than on the road (5.94). Harvey (5-5, 4.63 ERA) entered the All Star Game off four straight victories, giving up one run over five innings while striking out five in a victory over St. Louis in the final one. Harvey has quietly been dominating of late, giving up two earned runs or fewer over five straight trips to the hill. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Nova’s inconstancies are poised to rear their ugly head again here. Harvey on the other hand is enjoying a resurgence of sorts and I don’t think there’s any reason not to believe that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here, especially with a little extra time off to rest. Great price, play on the Reds. Good luck…Larry |
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07-21-18 | Giants +108 v. A's | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the San Francisco Giants (9:05 EST). I like the Giants to build off their 5-1 victory last night. The visitors hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner (3-3, 2.90 ERA) who after a couple of shaky starts to open his 2018 campaign (started the year on the DL), would close the first half strong. The veteran will clearly have benefited from the extra time off and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his 2.44 ERA in all night games this season. The home side counters with Trevor Cahill (1-2, 3.10) who spent some time on the DL before the All Star break. The sample size is simply too small to get an accurate read at where Cahill is right now. He’s 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA at home and 0-2 with a 5.92 ERA on the road. I’ll point out though that San Francisco is a solid 32-27 (+8.2 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Oakland is just 15-17 (-1.1 units) against southpaws this year. I think Cahill comes in rusty, while I believe the extra rest does Bumgarner good. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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07-21-18 | Astros -158 v. Angels | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (9*) 7:15 EST Nick Tropeano has been one of LA’s most consistent starters this season, but I still think that Justin Verlander and the defending champs are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Verlander (9-5, 2.29 ERA) leads the league in many categories already this season and note that he’s been at his best on the road by going 7-2 with a 1.99 ERA to this point. Tropeano (3-4, 4.83) returns from the DL after the break for his first start since early June. Note though that Tropeano is a poor 0-2 with a 6.12 ERA at home so far this year. I’ll point out additionally that Houston is 17-9 (+3.5 units) already this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while LA is just 1-3 (-1.6 units) this year as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. No upsets here, lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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07-21-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 7 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Cards/Cubs (7:15 EST). St. Louis won 18-5 yesterday. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much lower-scoring “duel” on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to John Gant (3-3, 3.49 ERA) who has done well filling in for an injured Michael Wacha with a 3.80 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 45 innings as starter thus far. The home side counters with Mike Montgomery (3-3, 3.91 ERA), who wasn’t perfect over the first half, but likely exceeded expectations overall. I’ll point out that St. Louis has interestingly seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten night games, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 night games and in 30 of 50 against clubs with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-21-18 | Pirates v. Reds -117 | 6-2 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (8*) 7:10 EST I had a play on Pittsburgh yesterday and it went on to smash the Reds 12-1. Suffice it to say, I think its “payback time” for the home side on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Kingham (4-4, 4.26 ERA) who endured an up and down first half. While his 1.15 WHIP and 42/11 K/W are both decent, his 4.26 ERA leaves everything to be desired. Also note that the rookie is 1-3 with a 6.41 ERA on the road, compared to 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA at home. The Reds counter with Anthony DeSclafani (4-2, 5.32) who closed the first half much like his counterpart. DeSclafani has looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others, but note that he’s still a decent 2-1 with a 4.56 ERA at home. I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is just 1-6 (-5.0 units) in its last seven after scoring 12 or more runs in its previous contest, while Cincinnati is 15-9 in its last 24 after allowing ten or more runs in its previous game. This one has “bounce back” written all over it for the Reds. Good luck…Larry |
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07-20-18 | Pirates +100 v. Reds | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10 EST). I think that Jameson Taillon offers great value in this particular matchup. Taillon (6-7, 3.91 ERA) finished the first half with consecutive strong outings and I think he can carry that momentum over here. Note that Taillon is so far 3-3 with a 3.93 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with the volatile Tyler Mahle (7-7, 4.02) who also finished first half with a couple of decent outings, but who has been much more inconsistent overall than Taillon. Note that Mahle is 2-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home and 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA in all night games too. I think Taillon’s recent form continues in his first start back from the break and I look for the Pirates to take advantage of this overall favorable matchup. Play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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07-20-18 | Twins -121 v. Royals | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -121 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Minnesota Twins (8:15 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Twins go with Kyle Gibson (4-6, 3.42 ERA) who finished the first half with a couple of decent outings and who will now look to improve upon his extremely respectable 2-2, 2.84 ERA record on the road. The home side goes with the volatile Danny Duffy (5-8, 4.59) who comes in off his strongest effort of the year, striking out nine over six shutout frames in an unfortunate no-decision to these very Twins ten days ago. Duffy though has been consistently inconsistent all year, especially at home where he’s an abysmal 0-4 with a ballooned 6.75 ERA. I like Gibson to continue his strong play on the road and I think the extra time off will do him some good here. The Twins will be out to get Duffy back after he stymied them last week and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is great line value. Play on the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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07-20-18 | Padres v. Phillies -160 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). Ultimately I believe that this line could easily be a lot higher considering the talent discrepancy on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Clayton Richard (7-8, 4.43 ERA) who closed the first half with a couple of shaky performances. Richard was more “miss” than “hit” over the first half and he’ll enter this one sporting a poor 5-5, 5.04 ERA record on the road to this point. The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (7-6, 3.23) who closed the first half with a couple of strong performances and who enters with a sharp 3-2, 2.53 ERA record at home thus far. Note that he’s also 6-4 with a 2.54 ERA in all night games as well. Richard has been terrible on the road here and he draws a tough first matchup after the break. Arrieta on the other hand has to be pretty excited facing the anemic Friars. No upset on Friday, lay the price with confidence, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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07-20-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs -150 | 18-5 | Loss | -150 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST). Ultimately I don’t believe that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Joe Flaherty (3-4, 3.24 ERA) who for the most part was extremely solid for the Cards over the first half. Flaherty was decent on the road (1-2, 3.41), but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. And that’s because the home side goes with the red hot Jon Lester (12-2, 2.58) who closed the first half strong, especially at home (5-1, 1.98) and in all day games (7-0, 2.22). The extra time off is going to benefit the veteran here as well, while Flaherty would seem more susceptible to “rust” in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is just 3-7 in its last ten as a road dog in the -130 to +130 range, while Chicago is 14-10 in its last 24 as a home fav in the -125 to -150 range. I’m banking on Lester out-duelling Flaherty and for the home side to take advantage of this favorable matchup on the mound. Lay the price, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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07-19-18 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -107 | 81 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* CFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Riders/Ti-Cats (7:30 EST). A couple of 2-2 teams collide on Thursday night and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring shootout. Saskatchewan is a sizeable underdog in this one, but note that it’s won five of its last seven road games. Zach Collaros has two TD passes and two INT’s this year. So far the ground game is averaging 110 yards per contest, with Jerome Messam leading the way with 110 yards on 32 carries. Receivers Shaquelle Evans and Naaman Roosevelt have combined for 310 receiving yards and two major scores. Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli has 1,378 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s so far this season. His favorite targets have been Jalen Saunders and Brandon Banks, who have combined fro 675 receiving yards and two TD’s. Luke Tasker has also excelled with 20 receptions. The Roughriders have QB issues and whoever gets the start of the visitors (possibly Brandon Bridges), I like Saskatchewan to keep this one competitive. With the home side looking to open up the playbook and to push the pace, the Riders will be forced to match that tempo. (additional O/U ATS supporting stats added shortly) Saskatchewan won’t be going down without a fight and it has history on its side, having won four straight in this series. As mentioned off the top, everything points to these clubs battling tooth and nail and for this total to soar over the posted number sooner, rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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07-19-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 6-9 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Cards/Cubs (7:05 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head to head in this one and in my opinion, runs would appear to be at an extreme premium. The Cards go with Carlos Martinez (6-5, 3.08 ERA) who picked up a win in his latest start against San Francisco, giving up one run over seven innings. Martinez would post his third straight victory and he has to be feeling confident here as he’s already a respectable 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (6-8, 3.92) who most recently beat the Giants as well, giving up one unearned run off five hits with eight K’s over nine frames in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Hendricks was “on point” inducing 18 swinging strikes off 109 offerings. Note that he owns a 3.18 ERA in all home contests so far this season as well. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two hurlers suggests that we’re going to have a classic “duel” on our hands to open the second half. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-15-18 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 4-6 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 18 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Reds/Cardinals (2:15 EST). These teams played to a higher-scoring over on Saturday night, but in my opinion everything points to more of a ‘duel” on Sunday. The visitors hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (4-1, 4.43 ERA) who gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Indians on Monday. After a couple of poor starts, there’s no question that the hard-throwing right-hander got back on track in this outing. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (10-3, 2.65) who comes in off consecutive strong outings and who has been especially tough at home by going 4-3 with a tiny 1.65 ERA. Note that he’s 5-0 with a 2.86 ERA in all day games as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven “day” games, while St. Louis has seen the total dip below the posted number in 20 of 35 day games this season. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-15-18 | Nationals -128 v. Mets | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Nationals (1:10 EST). I like Washington to bounce back off yesterday’s 7-4 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (3-1, 3.47 ERA) who for the most part, aside from one disastrous outing, has been “better than advertised” for the Nationals this season. Note that the veteran has been at his best on the road as well by going 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA. The home side counters with Corey Oswalt (0-2, 6.75) who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out two over four innings in against the Jays on Wednesday. Oswalt owns a 5.32 ERA in Triple-A and a 7.94 ERA in the majors. I’ll point out as well that Washington is 40-28 in its last 68 as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while New York is already a terrible 9-16 (-8.3 units) at home this season when the money line is set between -130 and +130. Everything points to the Nationals bouncing back big in this favorable matchup and off of yesterday’s loss. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-15-18 | Yankees +114 v. Indians | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Yankees (1:10 EST). I had a play on the Yankees yesterday, and I like them again in a slight upset role on Sunday afternoon as well. New York hands the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 4.68 ERA) who completed a 69-pitch rehab start last week for Triple-A Scranton, giving up two runs over five innings. Tanaka hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s still a respectable 5-0 with a 4.51 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 3.99 ERA in all day games. The home side counters with the red hot Trevor Bauer (8-6, 2.23) who gave up two runs with eight K’s over 7.2 innings in a victory over the punchless Royals. It’s hard to say anything negative about Bauer, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. As note that the Tribe are in fact just 17-24 (-14.8 units) against clubs with winning records this year. Conversely the Yankees are 31-13 (+14.5 units) against winning teams this season. I’m banking on Tanaka matching the over-achieving Bauer inning for inning and for the Yankee’s potent line-up to do the rest. Play on the Yanks. Good luck…Larry |
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07-15-18 | Croatia v. France -105 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 72 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on France to win in regulation (11:00 AM EST). I had a play on France in its victory over Belgium and I think it’s going to find a way to take the finale in regulation as well. Croatia has been a great story to this point, but I think it’s outclassed across the board in this one. Note that the Croatians have been taken to extra-time in all three knock-out matches so far. France is the deeper, more talented and experienced team as well, having also reached the 2016 Euro Final most recently. The French come in at full strength. Keep your eyes on Antoine Griezmann, who has a knack for the “big moments,” having been involved in 20 goals (12 scored, eight assists) in his last 20 France appearances. You’ll also want to track Kylian Mbappe, who has scored three goals over his last two games. The French have been on an entirely different level since the knock-out stages began. Note that France is now unbeaten in its last ten matches, winning eight outright. Croatia comes into this one pretty much fit as well. Luke Modric is one of three Croatians with two goals. Mario Mandzukic scored the winner against England. But France has improved with each game of this 2018 World Cup and it’s had to navigate the much more difficult route. The Croatian’s come in exhausted after three straight extra time victories. Play on France to win in regulation. Good luck…Larry |
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07-14-18 | A's v. Giants -114 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:05 EST). I like San Francisco to build off yesterday’s commanding 7-1 victory. While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Brett Anderson (1-2, 5.75 ERA) who went five scoreless innings in a victory over the Indians last week. It was his first start back since May with a shoulder issue and while he excelled in that one, I think some predictable regression is in store on the road and in this National League format. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 7.84 ERA in all night games thus far. The home side counters with Jeff Samardzija (1-5, 6.42) who returned from the DL on Saturday to give up three runs off seven hits with three K’s over five innings in a loss to the Cards. 53 of his 81 pitches went for strikes and it was an admirable showing in his first action in over a month. For arguments sakes, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I’ll point out though that the A’s are just 1-5 in their last six after scoring one run or less in their previous contest, while the Giants are 30-17 (+11.2 units) in all home games this season. I’m banking on San Francisco taking advantage of this favorable matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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07-14-18 | Yankees -101 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (9*) 7:15 EST I like the Yanks to avenge yesterday’s 6-5 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.34 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget in a loss on Monday, allowing five runs over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Over his previous seven starts though Sabathia hadn’t allowed more than three runs, so I’m not going to over-react to one shaky outing. The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (7-4, 3.34) who was rocked for five runs off seven hits with three walks over six innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Monday. Clevinger has been solid overall this year, but I’ll point out that that the Tribe have struggled in this spot for bettors all season by going just 16-24 (-15.8 units) against clubs with winning records and just 2-4 (-2.1 units) at home when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. Conversely this is a position in which the Yanks have excelled in, going 31-12 (+15.8 units) against teams with winning records and 8-5 (+2.7 units) on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Yankees. Good luck…Larry |
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07-14-18 | Reds v. Cardinals -138 | 8-2 | Loss | -138 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Daytime Dominator on the St. Louis Cardinals (4:10 EST). I had a play on the Reds in their upset 9-1 victory last night, but I think they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Castillo (5-8, 5.58 ERA) who most recently gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over four innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Sunday. Castillo for the most part has been a disappointment this season, note that he’s just 2-5 with a 6.71 ERA on the road as well. The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (3-4, 3.34) who gave up three runs off four hits and two walks over 2.1 innings in a no-decision to San Francisco on Sunday. Flaherty has admittedly struggled a bit over his last two starts, but note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in all day games this season. Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati is still just 15-27 (-9.2 units) this year against the division, while St. Louis is 25-16 (+7.4 units) against divisional foes this season. I’m banking on the home side getting a little revenge after yesterday’s humbling defeat. Lay the price, play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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07-14-18 | Diamondbacks -103 v. Braves | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8*) 4:10 EST I don’t normally “flip-flop” on a team (take one team one night and then come back with the other side the following night.) However, MLB is the one sport where every game has to be looked at individually because of the starting pitching. I think the Diamondbacks will build off their hard-fought 2-1 win last night and find a way to get the job done here as well. Arizona goes with Zack Greinke (9-5, 3.39 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with five K’s over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Sunday. It was a rare inefficient outing for Greinke, although he’d go 1 for 2 with a run scored, while also collecting his third stolen base of the season. The home side counters with Sean Newcomb (8-4, 3.44) whose early gains now look unsustainable after back-to-back crummy outings. Most recently he was rocked for five earned runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Sunday. In his previous start he was smashed for five runs over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Yanks. I think Newcomb’s slide into mediocrity continues on Saturday afternoon and I look for the veteran Greinke to take advantage. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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07-14-18 | Nationals v. Mets +105 | 4-7 | Win | 105 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) 4:10 EST I had a play on the Mets last night and I think the home side will build off that victory with another winning effort on Saturday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Austin Voth (0-0, 0.00 ERA), as he makes his major league debut in this one. Over 15 starts in Triple-A he’s posted a 3.55 ERA. The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (2-6, 4.42) who gave up three runs over 4.2 innings, while also striking out eight in a no-decision to Philadelphia on Monday. Wheeler would induce 16 swinging strikes, but he was inefficient, needing 102 pitches. Note that he’s been decent in all day games though with a respectable 3.34 ERA. The sky is the limit for Voth, but Wheeler is the correct call here. I’m banking on the home side taking advantage of this favorable matchup, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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07-13-18 | Reds +149 v. Cardinals | 9-1 | Win | 149 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (8:15 EST). I think that the “under the radar” Matt Harvey and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Harvey (4-5, 4.80 ERA) most recently allowed three runs (just two earned) off nine hits and a walk over 5.2 innings while striking out four in a no-decision to the Cubs on Saturday. Harvey would throw 60 of his 93 pitches for strikes and he’s now posted a 2.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 20/5 K/W over 29 innings over his last five starts. The home side counters with Carlos Martinez (6-4, 3.05) who picked up a victory over the Giants on Saturday, allowing one run over seven innings while striking out three. It was his third straight victory and clearly it’s difficult to say anything negative against Martinez, who has bounced back after a shaky stretch. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. As note that the Reds are 14-8 (+8.2 units) in their last 22 after allowing ten or more runs in their previous contest (off the humbling 19-4 loss to Cleveland) while St. Louis is already 7-9 (-6.1 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range this year. I like Harvey to match Martinez inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the hungry dog in my opinion. Play on the Reds. Good luck…Larry |
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07-13-18 | Royals v. White Sox -115 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (9*) 8:10 EST Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Brad Keller (2-3, 2.52 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off six hits and five walks over 4.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Red Sox on Saturday. He’d only generate four swinging strikes on 89 pitches and I think he’s going to struggle again on the road here. The home side counters with James Shields (3-10, 4.53) who comes in off an outing to forget as well, getting rocked for eight earned runs off ten hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to Houston on Saturday. Over five previous starts spanning 31.1 innings of work, Shields had allowed just seven earned runs, so there’s no question that he “came back down to Earth” in this one. Shields though catches a big break in this bounce back start by facing the Royals’ anemic line-up. I like Shields to indeed bounce back in friendly confines, while I believe everything points to another letdown for the rookie Keller. Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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07-13-18 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -128 | 2-1 | Loss | -128 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8*) 7:35 EST The D-Backs’ Zack Godley has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned and I simply don’t trust him whatsoever in this difficult venue. The Braves’ Anibal Sanchez is likely pitching “over his head” right now, but I still think he’ll have more than enough to out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Godley (10-6, 4.80 ERA) was pressed into service during a 16 inning 4-3 loss to San Diego on Sunday, going a scoreless frame while posting two K’s and a walk. In his previous outing he’d give up just one run off four hits over six innings in a win over San Diego as well. Godley’s admittedly bounced back after a tough stretch, but he still sports a poor 5.82 ERA on the road. Sanchez (4-2, 2.72) gave up one earned run off two hits and a walk while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Saturday. Sanchez only needed 82 pitches to get through the effort, throwing 57 of them for strikes. Note that he owns a 2.10 ERA at home as well. I’ll point out that Arizona has struggled against the “better” teams, going just 11-23 (-13.6 units) against clubs with winning records this year. Conversely, Atlanta has stepped its game up this year, going 29-18 (+17.3 units) against teams with winning records. When taking into account all of the above factors, I think this line could in fact be much larger. Great value, play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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07-13-18 | Nationals v. Mets -137 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) 7:10 EST I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this matchup. The visitors go with Tanner Roark (3-11, 4.76 ERA) who gave up four earned runs off ten hits over four innings while striking out five and walking three in a loss to the Marlins on Sunday. In his previous start he was rocked for nine earned runs, so this was actually an improvement (was his fourth loss in a row.) The home side counters with Noah Syndergaard (4-1, 3.06) who returns since going out in May with a strained ligament in his finger. In his final rehab assignment he’d allow one run over five innings. “Thor” will be on a pitch count, but I still think that he’ll have more than enough to out duel his “gas can” counterpart. Both teams are struggling right now, but I look for Syndergaard to come in fresh and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the very reasonable price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-13-18 | Phillies -139 v. Marlins | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:10 EST). The Phillies’ Jake Arrieta bounced back with a sharp performance in his last outing and I firmly believe he’ll carry that momentum over here. Arrieta (6-6, 3.47 ERA) most recently allowed two runs off six hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out eight in a win over the Pirates on Saturday. It was the first time since May 29th that he’s made it into the seventh frame and his first win since then, but regardless I think it was a big step in the right direction. The home side counters with Wei-Yin Chen (2-6, 6.14) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he was tagged for seven runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Nationals on Saturday. Chen has struggled all year and he comes in sporting a cruddy 1.55 WHIP as well. Chen has been better at home than on the road, but I’ll point out that the Marlins are still just 27-37 in all night games this year, while Philadelphia is 31-27 (+4.3 units) in the same position. Look for Arrieta to take advantage of this favorable matchup and to outlast his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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07-12-18 | Calgary v. Ottawa +3.5 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Ottawa Redblacks (7:30 EST). Ottawa pulled off a 39-33 upset over Calgary in the 2016 Grey Cup and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question here either, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Note that this is an “in-season revenge game” for the Redblacks, as the Stampeders won 24-14 at home in Week 3, led by QB Bo Levi Mitchell with 251 yards and two scores. Trevor Harris had just 135 yards and a pick in that one for Calgary, but all signs point to a bounce back here in my opinion. Calgary is so far the only unbeaten team in the CFL, but off its bye, I’m expecting it to come out a little flat-footed here. Mitchell so far had 872 yards and six TD passes, while Eric Rogers is tied for third with three TD catches. Ottawa won 28-18 in Montreal last weekend, as Harris bounced back with 342 yards and three TD’s. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Ottawa receiver Brad Sinopoli, who caught 11 passes for 148 yards and a TD. Both teams looked sharp defensively in their last games, so I’m going to call that area a “wash” tonight. I will point out though that Ottawa is an amazing 14-5 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog. The week off leads to “rust” for Calgary, while the Redblacks build off their latest victory. Grab the points, play on Ottawa. Good luck…Larry |
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07-12-18 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Yanks/Indians (7:10 EST). Two of the league’s best pitchers go head-to-head in this game, while two of the most prolific line-ups square off in this series. I believe we’ll see these starting pitchers give up a few and I look for this total to sneak over before it’s all said and done. The visitors give the ball to ace Luis Severino (14-2, 2.12 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over five innings while striking out five in a win over Toronto on Saturday. The hard-throwing right-hander threw 70 of his 97 pitches for strikes. The home side counters with Corey Kluber (12-4, 2.49) who went seven scoreless against the A’s last time out, giving up five hits in what turned out to be a no-decision. As stated off the top, I do recognize that these are two of the league’s best pitchers. But these are also two very talented and dangerous hitting line-ups. Note that New York has in fact seen the total go over the number in 18 of its last 30 when the total in the contest is set at 7 or less, while Cleveland has seen the total sail above the posted number in 29 of 43 home games already this season and in 15 of its last 26 when the total is set at 7 or less. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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07-12-18 | Brewers v. Pirates -126 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). I had a play on the Pirates in their slight upset at home yesterday and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley (1-0, 1.42 ERA) who comes off the DL to make this start. Miley looked good over four re-hab outings and he’s been given the green light to go here. Note that in 2017 he was 8-15 with a 5.61 ERA. The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (5-7, 4.05) who comes in off a hard-luck loss to Philadelphia on Saturday, giving up three runs off five hits over 6.2 innings while striking out six as well. Taillon would go on to throw 60 of his 77 pitches for strikes on his way to his eighth quality start of the year. Note that Milwaukee is now 19-21 (-2.6 units) against the division this season, while Pittsburgh is 19-16 (+4.5 units) against divisional opponents. Miley’s looked good in his limited time this season, but he’s still a big question mark heading back for his first start in over a month. Taillon though has once again rounded into form and I’m fully expecting him to carry that progression over here. All things considered, a great price. Play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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07-11-18 | Cardinals -130 v. White Sox | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -130 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:10 EST). I like the Cardinals to build off their big beatdown victory over the hapless White Sox on Tuesday and find a way to get the job done again on Wednesday. The visitors hand the ball to Luke Weaver (5-7, 4.92 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Giants on Thursday, giving up two runs off two hits with no walks while striking out seven over eight innings in the eventual victory. It was a big step in the right direction and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. The home side counters with the volatile Carlos Rodon (1-3, 4.29) who gave up two runs off five hits and six walks over six innings in a no-decision against the Astros on Thursday. Rodon hasn’t been completely horrible this year, but he’s still 0-2 with a 5.60 ERA in all night games this season. St. Louis is now 9-2 (+5.2 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Chicago is just 11-16 (-4.6 units) at home when the money line in the contest falls between the -130 to +130 range. For arguments sake, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I think this matchup highly favors the Cards though and I look for them to deliver the goods once it’s all said and done. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-11-18 | Yankees v. Orioles +135 | 9-0 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). I think the Orioles will build off yesterday’s 6-5 victory. The visitors go with the volatile Sonny Gray (5-7, 5.85 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off six hits with two walks while striking out four over two innings in a loss to Toronto on Friday. Gray is stumbling towards the half way mark, having allowed 11 runs over his last two starts, spanning just 4.1 innings of work. Note that he’s a dismal 2-6 with a 7.33 ERA in all “night” games this season. The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (6-8, 4.08) who returned from the DL on Friday and promptly got smashed for six runs (five earned) off nine hits over 3.1 innings in a setback to the Twins. Prior to landing on the DL he’d gone at least six innings in eight straight starts, so one shaky outing isn’t anything to get too worried about in my opinion. Bundy was hampered by an ankle injury, something not easy to shake. But with proper rest between starts, he’s good to go here and I’m expecting a much more solid effort at home, where he’s already owns a respectable 3.99 ERA. I like Bundy to out duel Gray and I look for the hungry Orioles to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Baltimore. Good luck…Larry |
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07-11-18 | Nationals v. Pirates +115 | 0-2 | Win | 115 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (12:35 EST). I like the Pirates to respond here after yesterday’s 5-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (6-5, 3.76 ERA) who gave up two runs off eight hits with four walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Marlins on Friday. Gonzalez hasn’t won since May 28th and to go along with his now pedestrian ERA, note that he owns a mediocre 1.47 WHIP and 90/47 K/W over 95.2 innings of work. Note as well that he’s just 3-3 with a 4.49 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Trevor Williams (6-7, 4.60) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Phillies on Friday, allowing five runs over 2.1 innings. Williams has struggled to a 4.60 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 94 innings thus far, but I’ll point out that this is a spot in which the Pirates have responded well in all year so far, going 7-3 in their last ten after scoring one or less runs in their previous outing. Despite yesterday’s victory, the Nat’s still come into this one having gone a horrible 15-19 (-14.4 units) in all “day” games this year. I like Williams to bounce back and for the Pirates to avenge yesterday’s setback. Play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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07-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -121 | 5-3 | Loss | -121 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (9*) 8:40 EST I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.05 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits and two walks over six innings in a no-decision against St. Louis on Wednesday. Corbin has been solid all year and he’s actually been better on the road than at home, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (6-3, 3.90) who has now gone back-to-back games of eight shutout innings, most recently over the Giants on Wednesday. Over that span he’s posted a 17/3 K/W. in fact over a six-start stretch Anderson has posted a 2.18 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 41/8 K/W. Note as well that he’s been particularly good in all night games with a 5-1, 3.86 ERA record thus far. I’ll point out as well that Arizona is just 10-22 (-13.6 units) this year against clubs with wining records, while Colorado is 20-17 (+4.9 units) in the same position. I think Corbin struggles at hitter Friendly Coors and I look for Anderson and the home side to take advantage. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-10-18 | Cardinals v. White Sox +165 | 14-2 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 48 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (8*) 8:10 EST While this one favors the Cardinals on paper, I do in fact believe that it sets up nicely overall for the home side to score the upset on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Miles Mikolas (9-3, 2.63 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits with four walks over six innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. Mikolas has been extremely effective this year, but his strikeout numbers are in fact pretty poor (6.2 K/9.) The home side counters with Dylan Covey (3-4, 5.54) who comes in off a loss against the Reds on Wednesday, allowing six runs over 3.2 innings. After a great start, Covey has come back down to Earth. He enters with a 38/24 K/W over 50.1 innings of work thus far. I’ll point out though that St. Louis is just 25-27 (-9 units) this year in all night games, while Chicago is 33-28 (+19.7 units) in its last 61 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. Looks like the perfect spot to pull the trigger on the under-valued underdog. Play on the White Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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07-10-18 | Blue Jays v. Braves -125 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). Both teams had the night off on Monday. I think the shift to the NL format will throw Marcus Stroman “off his game” tonight and I look for Julio Teheran and the home side to take advantage. Stroman (1-6, 6.50 ERA) comes in off a terrible outing against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing six runs and four walks while striking out two over 4.2 innings. Stroman looked decent in two straight starts following a short stint on the DL, but he’d return to his early shoddy form after this disastrous outing. To go along with his atrocious ERA, note that he also sports an uninspiring 1.57 WHIP. Teheran (6-6, 4.47) returns from the DL after a short stint with an illness. Previous to that he’d allow five runs and four walks over five innings in a loss to the Yankees. The silver lining though was that he’d go on to strikeout ten in the setback. I think Teheran will bounce back in friendly confines though. I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 17-23 (-3.6 units) on the road this year, while Atlanta is 23-16 (+4.4 units) at home. In my estimation, this line could easily be larger. Great value on Teheran and the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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07-10-18 | Brewers -143 v. Marlins | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 48 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) 7:10 EST I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side. The Brewers hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin (7-3, 3.63 ERA) who gave up two runs and a walk with three hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory last Thursday. Over his last two starts spanning 12 innings he’s allowed a very respectable three earned runs. Note that he’s 4-1 with a 3.59 ERA on the road as well this year. The home side counters with the volatile Pablo Lopez (1-0, 5.73) who was rocked for five runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Nationals on Thursday. The sky is the limit for the rookie, but clearly he faces another stiff test at home this week. I’ll point out as well that Milwaukee is already 44-27 against right-handed starters this year, while Miami just 27-39 in the same position. I look for Chacin to easily out duel his “gas can” counterpart and I expect the opportunistic Brewers to do the rest. Lay the price, play on Milwaukee. Good luck…Larry |
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07-10-18 | Belgium v. France +153 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 153 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* SOCCER GAME OF THE YEAR is on France to win in regulation over Belgium (2:00 EST). Belgium comes in off a big win over tournament favorite Brazil, but I think it’ll stumble here against this surging French team. France comes in off a convincing 2-0 win over Uruguay in its last round. Good news for the French is that Blaise Matuidi is back from suspension after having to sit out the quarter-final. And that means that France comes in at full strength to this one. Keep your eyes on speedster Kylian Mbappe, who has scored three goals in the tournament, two of which came against Argentina. You’ll also want to track Antoine Griezmann for the French, who managed his third goal of the Tourney against Uruguay. Note that France comes in having won seven and drawn two of its last nine matches. Belgium will be missing the services of Thomas Meunier after he picked up his second yellow card against Brazil. The Belgians are led by Romelu Lukaku, who has four goals so far in the tournament. Lukaku scored four times over the first two group stage games, but he’s been quiet since. Clearly it’s not going to be easy for the French, as Belgium comes in unbeaten since August 2016, including having won all five of its games outright so far in the Tournament. But France has kept three clean sheets in its last four matches and I ultimately believe that Belgium will finally meet its match defensively in this one. The French are finally firing on all cylinders at both ends of the field and I like them to punch their ticket to the final game. Play on France. Good luck…Larry |
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07-09-18 | Phillies -170 v. Mets | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
WRONG PICK CHOSEN, SORRY FOR CONFUSION, PLEASE IGNORE |
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07-09-18 | Reds +155 v. Indians | 7-5 | Win | 155 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST). The Reds look to bounce back in the opener of this interleague series after an extra innings 6-5 loss at the Cubs last night, while the Indians were busy losing 6-0 at home to the A’s yesterday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (3-1, 5.08 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits while striking out five over 5.1 innings against the White Sox on Tuesday. DeSclafani hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s consistently been at his best on the road by going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA. The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (7-3, 3.11) who gave up three runs off eight hits over six innings in a win over Oakland on Sunday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Clevinger, so I won’t even bother. I will however point out that the Indians are just 2-7 in their last nine after getting shutout in their previous contest. I’ll point out as well that the Reds are 8-2 (+5.6 units) this year in all inter-league contests. Everything points to a minor upset in this one, play on Cincinnati. Good luck…Larry |
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07-09-18 | Brewers -155 v. Marlins | 3-4 | Loss | -155 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST). The Brewers smashed the Braves 10-3 at home yesterday afternoon and I think the club will carry that momentum over here. The Marlins on the other hand look primed for a letdown in my opinion after their big 10-2 road win in the nation’s capital on Sunday. The visitors go with Chase Anderson (6-6, 3.99 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits with one walk while striking out five in a no-decision to Minnesota on Wednesday. Note that Anderson has now allowed just a single run in each of his last three starts, so there’s definitely no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry over that momentum here against the light-hitting Marlins. The home side counters with Jose Urena (2-9, 4.18) who went five scoreless against the Rays on Wednesday. It was his first start back from a short stint on the DL and he looked decent. Urena has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate this season, but note that he’s still 0-7 at home this year. Additionally I’ll point out that the Brewers are 37-15 (+23.2 units) this year in all “night” games, while the Marlins are 25-36 in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price with confidence. Play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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07-09-18 | Nationals v. Pirates -101 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). Washington fell 10-2 at home to the Marlins on Sunday afternoon and I’m predicting another letdown here as well. Pittsburgh would hold on for the 4-1 win at home over the Phillies yesterday. The visitors go with Jefry Rodriguez (0-0, 5.52 ERA) who is once again being recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to make this start. Over three appearances Rodriguez has posted a 5.93 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Pirates “ace” Ivan Nova (4-6, 4.88) comes in off an outing to forget against the Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing seven runs off nine hits over five innings. Previous to this outing though he’d posted three straight quality starts, and note that he still ranks among MLB’s leaders in walk rate. Nova’s struggled with consistency this year, but I still think he’s the correct call against the totally unproven Rodriguez. I’m banking on Nova bouncing back and I look for the Pirates to take advantage in the opener of this three-game set. Play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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07-08-18 | Rockies v. Mariners -126 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Mariners (4:10 EST). I like the Mariners to bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (3-1, 4.44 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Giants on Tuesday, going seven scoreless with no walks and four strikeouts. Previous to this strong outing, Senzatela had posted a horrible 6.23 ERA over ten appearances for the Rockies. The home side counters with Wade LeBlanc (4-0, 3.19) who gave up one run off three hits with one walk while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over LA on Tuesday. LeBlanc’s peripherals suggest that his numbers are sustainable and he’s got to be feeling confident here, as note that he’s 4-0 with a sharp 2.45 ERA at home. I’ll point out as well that Colorado is already a poor 6-7 (-1.2 units) this season after three or more consecutive victories, while Seattle is 21-11 (+8.6 units) this year following a loss. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners. Good luck…Larry |
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07-08-18 | Cardinals v. Giants -140 | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (9*) 4:05 EST I like the home side to bounce back here after yesterday’s 3-2 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty (3-4, 3.19 ERA) who gave up four runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. For the most part Flaherty has been as solid as St. Louis could possibly have hoped for this year, but note that he’s winless in four straight trips to the hill. The home side counters with Madison Bumgarner (1-3, 2.58) who gave up three runs off seven hits over six innings in a loss at Colorado on Monday. Previous to this setback he’d go 15 innings and allowed zero runs to go along with a 16/4 K/W. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is already just 22-23 (-6.7 units) this year following a victory, while San Francisco is still 11-7 (+1.5 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price as I look for Bumgarner to take advantage of familiar surroundings. Play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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07-08-18 | Reds v. Cubs -145 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8*) 2:20 EST The home side roared from behind to win 8-7 yesterday and suffice it to say, I think it’ll find a way to get the job done in this one as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Castillo (5-8, 5.53 ERA) who gave up one run over 6.2 innings in a victory over the White Sox on Monday. Starts like though have been few and far between for Castillo this year and note that he’s 2-5 with a 6.70 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Jon Lester (11-2, 2.25) who earned his seventh straight win last time out despite giving up four runs (just two earned though) while also going on to strike out five over five innings against the Twins on Sunday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for the veteran this year and he has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back, as note that he’s an elite 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA at home this season. I like Lester to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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07-08-18 | Braves v. Brewers -127 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) 2:10 EST I like the Brewers to bounce back from yesterday’s defeat. The Braves hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (8-3, 3.10 ERA) who gave up five runs off three hits with five walks over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Yankees on Tuesday. Newcomb has been better than ATL could have possibly asked for this year, but this latest effort is a bit of a concern I’d say. The home side counters with Junior Guerra (5-5, 2.87) who comes in off a gem against the Twins on Tuesday, going five scoreless while striking out eight. To go along with his sharp ERA, note that Guerra also sports a 88/34 K/W over 87.2 innings of work. Also note that Guerra has been at his best at home this year by posting a 2.67 ERA in Milwaukee (he also has a 2.14 ERA in all day games.) Atlanta’s been decent on the road this season, but I think Guerra is the correct call at home here. Look for the revenge-minded Brewers to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Good luck…Larry |
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07-07-18 | BC v. Winnipeg -6 | Top | 19-41 | Win | 100 | 37 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8:30 EST). Winnipeg welcomes back QB Matt Nichols to the line-up in this one, which made the Bombers’ line jump from 4-points to around 6-points. I think Nichols will in fact be the difference maker in this one and I expect the home side to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. Winnipeg is 5-3 SU the last eight in this series, including 3-1 on home field. And that doesn’t bode well for a BC team which is a horrible 2-10-1 ATS in it last 13 against teams from the West. In fact, the Lions are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine in this series. BC comes in off a 41-22 beatdown loss in Edmonton last week and I think it’ll still be caught up on that loss on the short week and on the road. Winnipeg is just 1-2 on the year, but Nichols will be a massive boost for everyone concerned. Nichols threw for 4,472 yards and 28 TD’s last year. BC QB Jonathan Jennings hasn’t thrown over 200 yards in his two games this season and I think he’s going to struggle again in this difficult venue. For all the reasons listed above, play on Winnipeg. Good luck…Larry |
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07-07-18 | Dodgers -162 v. Angels | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (7:15 EST). One of these starters has been solid all year, while the other is a confirmed “gas can.” The visitors hand the ball to the steady Ross Stripling (6-2, 2.27 ERA) who gave up four runs while striking out seven and walking one in a no-decision to the Rockies on Sunday. While it clearly wasn’t his best outing, Stripling still comes in sporting the sharp ERA to go along with an elite 1.12 WHIP and a massive 96/16 K/W over 83.1 innings of work. Note that he owns a 2.20 ERA on the road as well. The home side counters with Deck McGuire (0-1, 7.56) who has been recalled from Triple-A to make this start. In his last big league start (which was his season debut) just last, McGuire gave up five runs off five hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Orioles on Sunday. Additionally I’ll point out that the Dodgers are already 3-1 in all inter-league games this year, while the Angels are just 3-4 in the same position. Everything points to a rout from start to finish, play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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07-07-18 | Rays v. Mets +118 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (4:10 EST). I think the home side can build off yesterday’s 5-1 win over Tampa. The visitors hand the ball to Blake Snell (11-4, 2.24 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Astros on Sunday, giving up one run with ten K’s over 7.1 innings in the eventual victory. It’s hard to say anything negative about Snell, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’ll stumble here under this National League format. The home side counters with Steven Matz (4-5, 3.46) who gave up one run off three hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a win over the Marlins on Sunday. To go along with his respectable ERA, he also sports a respectable 76/32 K/W and note that he owns a sharp 2.99 ERA in all day games to this point as well. Both teams have been terrible in this spot for bettors, but ultimately I believe that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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07-07-18 | Reds v. Cubs -142 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST). I like the Cubs to bounce back here after yesterday’s 3-2 defeat. Matt Harvey (4-5, 4.91 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he most recently allowed no runs off two hits over 5.2 innings in a win over Milwaukee last week. Harvey has admittedly looked better of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still a poor 2-3 with a 6.10 ERA in all day games this season. The home side counters with Tyler Chatwood (3-5, 4.54) who comes in off a terrible showing, giving up seven runs off seven hits in a no-decision to Minnesota on Saturday. The silver lining was that he’d go on to strike out six. Note that it was just the second time this year that he’s given up four or more runs. I’ll point out though that Cincinnati is just 17-23 on the road this season, while the Cubs are 26-14 at home this year, including 11-4 (+4.8 units) as a fav in the -125 to -175 range. I think Harvey has a predictable letdown here after his decent stretch, and I expect the hungry and revenge-minded Cubs to take advantage. Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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07-06-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -135 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
Third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) 9:40 EST I like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 6-3 defeat as a -160 favorite. The visitors hand the ball to Joey Lucchesi (4-3, 3.26 ERA) who gave up one hit and walked four over five scoreless in a win over the punch-less Pirates on Saturday. Note that he only threw 52 of his 85 pitches for strikes though. While that was good enough to best Pittsburgh, clearly the hard-hitting Diamondbacks won’t be as “easy.” Note that in his three starts since returning from the DL he’s walked eight opponents over 10.2 innings. The home side counters with Zack Godley (9-6, 5.07) who comes in off an outing to forget against San Francisco on Sunday, allowing seven runs off nine hits while striking out five over four innings. Previous to that he’d posted four straight quality efforts, so clearly this was a step back. Godley is suffering through his most inconsistent season since his rookie year, but note that he’s been at his best in this particular spot, going a respectable 4-2 with a 4.14 ERA at home and an even better 8-3 with a 3.82 ERA in all night games. I’ll point out as well that San Diego is just 28-33 against right-handed starters this season, while Arizona is 18-11 (+7.7 units) against southpaws. I like Godley to bounce back after his latest poor effort, while everything points to the Padres suffering a predictable letdown here after last night’s victory. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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07-06-18 | Orioles +110 v. Twins | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (8*) 8:10 EST I like Baltimore to bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (6-7, 3.75 ERA) who returns from the ten-day DL to make his first start since June 26th. Bundy threw a bullpen session and he’s been cleared to go. To go along with his respectable ERA, he also owns a 1.21 WHIP over 16 starts. Further note that he has a 3.25 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Lance Lynn (5-7, 5.49) who gave up seven runs over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Lynn looked decent overall in June, but his first start in July was a complete disaster obviously. He’s been better at home than on the road, but I think his blow-up in his last start is a sign of things to come, as recent gains do definitely seem unsustainable considering his already poor season numbers. Baltimore has been terrible this year, but Bundy comes back fresh and I think he’ll have more than enough to out-duel his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the hungry Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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07-06-18 | Phillies -108 v. Pirates | Top | 17-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). Both teams had the night off on Thursday. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Phillies hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (5-7, 4.66 ERA) who picked up a win in relief on Sunday, pitching a scoreless 13th inning with one walk and one K. Previous to that Pivetta had been roughed up by the Nationals. Pivetta and the Phillies though catch a break squaring off against the volatile Trevor Williams (6-6, 4.22) who gave up four runs off four hits while striking out over 4.2 innings in a loss to San Diego on Saturday. Williams has been a complete “gas can” of late, allowing at least four earned runs in six of his past ten starts. Note that he also only has 68 K’s over 91.2 innings of work. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has done well in this spot for bettors all year by going 17-11 (+6.1 units) against clubs with losing records. Conversely, the Pirates have struggled in this position by going just 15-26 (-9.5 units) against teams with winning records. I like Pivetta to out duel his struggling counterpart and for the Phillies to find a way to take the opener of this three game series. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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07-06-18 | Yankees -137 v. Blue Jays | 2-6 | Loss | -137 | 26 h 30 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (8*) 7:05 EST Both teams had the night off last night. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side. The Yanks go with Sonny Gray (5-6, 5.44 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Red Sox on Saturday, allowing six runs off seven hits over 2.1 innings of work. Gray owns an atrocious 2-3, 8.25 ERA record at home, compared to a much more respectable 3-3, 3.28 ERA record on the road. The home side counters with Sam Gaviglio (2-2, 3.97) who gave up three runs over seven innings in what turned out to be no-decision against the Tigers on Saturday. Gaviglio has been better at home than on the road this year, but I still think he’ll have difficulties today facing a Yanks team that he got the better of earlier in the season. I’ll point out as well that New York has done well in this spot for bettors all year by going a solid 13-7 (+2.2 units) as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range. Conversely, this is a position in which the Jays have struggled mightily in for bettors by going just 2-6 (-3.1 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. New York is looking to close the first half of the season strong and I think it takes care of business in the opener of this important divisional contest. Lay the price, play on the Yanks. Good luck…Larry |
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07-06-18 | France v. Uruguay OVER 2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the over France/Uruguay (10:00 AM EST). I’m expecting these two capable countries to put some balls in the back of the net. Uruguay comes in off a win over Portugal, while France took care of business over Argentina to advance to the Quarters. Uruguay will be looking for others to step up here with the news that Edinson Cavani is likely to sit this one out with a leg injury. That means that Cristhian Stuani will be paired with Luis Suarez up front in this one. Keep your eyes on Suarez though, who scored two goals in the group round to move to 53 on the international stage. Antoine Griezmann won the 2016 Euro Golden Boot and he’d notch another one in the most recent victory as well for France. The French would win 4-3 over Argentina and in my opinion, everything points to another high-scoring thriller here as well. France has history working against it this afternoon, as it’s won just one of its last seven matches against Uruguay. Kylian Mbappe has four goals in his last five appearances for the French though and I think he’ll have a productive match here as well. When you add it all up, this one the feel of a wide open “shootout,” rather than a tightly-checked “chess match.” Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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07-05-18 | Angels v. Mariners -134 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST). I like the home side to bounce back off yesterday’s 7-4 defeat to the Angels. LA sends Jaime Barria (5-4, 3.40 ERA) to the hill, and he’ll be making a spot start here after Tyler Skaggs was placed on the DL with an adductor strain. Note that Barria is allowing opponents to record a .352 wOBA against him on the road, compared to a .290 mark at home. The home side counters with Marco Gonzalez (8-5, 3.77) who comes in off a complete game against the Royals on Friday, allowing one earned run off six hits while striking out seven with no walks. To go along with his respectable ERA, Gonzalez also sports a decent 1.23 WHIP and 87/20 K/W over 100.1 innings of work. Note that Gonzalez has consistently been at his best at home as well by going 3-1 with a 3.06 ERA thus far. I base my selections on many different things, but this one just sets up nicely for the Mariners. They’re off the loss yesterday and catch the Angels needing to make a last second pitching change. I think Gonzalez is the correct call here for sure. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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07-05-18 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan OVER 50 | Top | 13-18 | Loss | -108 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Ti-Cats/Riders (9:00 EST). Hamilton will be looking to keep the pedal to the metal in Week 4 and extend its lead in the East. Hamilton wasn’t expected to do much out East, but the Ti-Cats enter this Week 4 matchup sitting at 2-1. Hamilton would spilt a two-game season opening road trip and then return home to beat Winnipeg 31-17 last week as a five-point favorite. Ti-Cats’ QB Jeremiah Masoli, perhaps motivated with Johnny Manziel waiting patiently in the wings for his turn to shine, has in fact dominated himself to open the year. Most recently he threw for 369 yards and a TD. Masoli has now thrown for 300 yards in eight straight games, tying Montreal’s Anthony Calvillo and Edmonton’s Mike Reilly for second most in league history. Hamilton’s ground game looked sharp as well, with Mercer Timmis rushing for two major scores, while Sean Thomas-Erlington had 92 yards on 11 carries. Saskatchewan lost the services of starting QB Zach Collaros and went to Brandon Bridges last week and the result was a 23-17 setback at home to the Alouettes as a ten point favorite. Bridge was pulled at half time after going just 8 of 18 for 111 yards and two INT’s. Bridge should settle down here in his second start of the season though and he will benefit from the friendly confines as well. I’ll point out as well that Hamilton has seen the total go over the posted number in three of its last four road games when the total in the contest is set between 49.5 and 52 points, while Saskatchewan has seen the total eclipse the number in seven of its last ten after two or more consecutive SU losses. In my estimation, the conditions are definitely correct for a high-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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07-05-18 | Rangers v. Tigers +101 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST). The Rangers come in off a frustrating series loss at home to the Astros, most recently a 6-5 extra inning setback last night. Detroit meanwhile returns home after losing at the Cubs, most recently a 5-2 loss yesterday afternoon. These are two hungry teams looking for a victory, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup on the mound. The visitors go with the volatile Yovani Gallardo (2-0, 9.00 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits and a walk with seven K’s over 7.1 innings in a victory over the White Sox on Friday. After a disastrous start to the season, Gallardo has admittedly looked better of late, but I’m still unconvinced that he’s turned any major corners at this point. The home side counters with Matt Boyd (4-6, 4.18) who struck out seven and walked two in a no-decision against Toronto on Saturday, ultimately allowing three runs over six innings of work. Previous to that Boyd had struggled a bit over two starts, but overall this year the southpaw has been as solid as Detroit could have possibly asked for. Note that Boyd has consistently been his most consistent at home as well by going 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA to this point.. I think Gallardo takes a predictable step back here, while recent form displayed by Boyd points to another productive evening in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Tigers. Good luck…Larry |
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07-04-18 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -129 | 8-4 | Loss | -129 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) 10:10 EST I think the home side will build off its 4-2 victory last night. St. Louis hands the ball to Miles Mikolas (8-3, 2.61 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits with one strikeout over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Braves on Friday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Mikolas, so I won’t even bother trying. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. The home side counters with Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.14) who most recently allowed one earned run off four hits with five K’s over six innings in a no-decision against the Giants on Friday. Corbin started the season on fire, but then dropped off considerably. However over his last two starts he’s given up just one earned run and posted a 17/1 K/W over his last 13 innings of work. Over 106 innings so far he’s posted a tiny 0.99 WHIP as well. Additionally note that St. Louis is just 23-25 (-9.3 units) in all night games this year, while Arizona is 34-23 (+10 units) in the same position. I like Corbin to get the better of his counterpart today and I look for the hard-hitting home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-04-18 | Giants v. Rockies -118 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Colorado Rockies (8:10 EST). I like the Rockies to build off their 8-1 victory last night. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Suarez (3-4, 4.18 ERA) who comes in off a win against Arizona in his latest start Friday, giving up one run off seven hits over six innings. Suarez had a strong June overall, but his ERA and 1.28 WHIP leave everything to be desired. Note as well that he’s a poor 2-2 with a 5.35 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (5-3, 4.23) who went eight shutout innings against the Dodgers on Friday, giving up four hits and striking out eight. Anderson has now posted quality efforts in four of his last seven trips to the hill. While he’s been better on the road than at home, I’ll point out that the Rockies are 33-23 (+9.3 units) in all night games this year, while San Fran is just 26-29 (-1.5 units) in the same position. I think Suarez takes a step back in this difficult venue and I look for Anderson and the Rockies to take advantage. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-04-18 | Angels v. Mariners -105 | 7-4 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (8*) 4:10 EST I like the Mariners to build off yesterday’s 4-1 victory. The visitors hand the ball to Garrett Richards (4-4, 3.42 ERA) who returns from the ten-day DL after hamstring issue in mid June. Note that he’s 0-1 with an 8.68 ERA in all day games this year. Clearly Richards is facing a tough test today against the surging Mariners in his first start back. The home side counters with Mike Leake (8-4, 4.01) who most recently allowed two runs off five hits with six K’s over seven innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Thursday. Leake has turned things around of late and he now has a big opportunity to lower his ERA under 4.00 for the first time since April (note that he’s 4-1 with a 3.69 ERA in all day games as well.) Additionally I’ll point out that LA is just 10-12 (-2.6 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Seattle is 16-6 (+10.4 units) this year at home when the money line in the contest falls in the same range. I’m banking on Leake going longer than Richards and for the hot-hitting home side to find a way to get the job done. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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07-04-18 | Twins +102 v. Brewers | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (8*) 4:10 EST I think the visitors will respond after yesterday’s 2-0 defeat and with their “ace” on the mound. Minnesota hands the ball to Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.52 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Cubs on Friday, giving up six runs over 4.1 innings. Blow-ups like that though have been few and far between for Berrios, as this was his shortest outing since April. The home side counters with Chase Anderson (6-6, 4.18) who gave up one run off two hits over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Friday. Note though that it was just his second quality start since May. Despite his recent form, note that Anderson comes in with a poor 3-3, 5.29 ERA record at home. Minnesota comes in fired up after yesterday’s shutout. I think that Berrios bounces back here as well and everything points to predictable regression for Anderson after his latest decent effort. Play on the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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07-03-18 | Pirates +201 v. Dodgers | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (10:10 EST). I think the Pirates will respond here after yesterday’s humiliating 17-1 defeat. I also believe this does indeed set up as a classic letdown spot for the home side after such a big victory. Ultimately I believe that Ivan Nova has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup, as Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw continues to try and find his old dominant form. Nova (4-5, 4.02 ERA) gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Wednesday. Nova wasn’t at his best, but he still posted his third straight quality outing. In fact, over 25.2 innings in June, Nova posted an impressive 1.75 ERA. Kershaw (1-4, 2.84) gave up one run off four hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Thursday. Over eight innings since returning from the DL, he’s allowed three runs, while posting a 10/1 K/W. Pittsburgh is just 8-12 against left-handed starters this year, but I’ll point out that the Dodgers are a horrible 26-27 (-17.8 units) against right-handed starters as well this season. Looking back also sees the Pirates having gone 7-1 in their last eight after allowing 15 or more runs in their previous outing. For arguments sakes, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I’m banking on the humbled visiting side to respond after yesterday’s defeat, while everything does indeed point to a letdown for LA. Play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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07-03-18 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -144 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). After yesterday’s 6-3 defeat, I think the home side will bounce back on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty (3-3, 2.92 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Indians on Wednesday, allowing four runs off six hits with two walks over six innings in the eventual setback. Flaherty has been strong overall this year, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The home side counters with ace Zack Greinke (8-5, 3.41) who went seven scoreless in a victory over Miami on Thursday, striking out six and walking none. To go along with his strong ERA, Greinke also sports an elite 1.11 WHIP and note that he’s been at his best at home this season by going 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA. Additionally I’ll point out that the Cards are sill only 22-25 (-10.6 units) in all night games, while the D-Backs are 34-22 (+11.2 units) in the same position. I think Greinke can out-duel his suddenly struggling counterpart and I look for the revenge-minded home side to take advantage. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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07-03-18 | Twins v. Brewers -133 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Milwaukee Brewers (1:10 EST). The Brewers came from behind in a back and forth game to win 6-5 in yesterday’s series opener and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done here as well on Tuesday. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jake Odorizzi (3-5, 4.62 ERA) who went six shutout frames in a 2-1 win over the soft-hitting White Sox on Thursday. Previous to this strong showing though, Odorizzi didn’t even make it out of the second inning. Overall Odorizzi has been a disappointment this year and while he’s been better on the road than at home, I’m still expecting him to struggle in this difficult venue. The home side counters with the steady Junior Guerra (4-5, 3.05) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Thursday. Guerra hasn’t been perfect this year, but he has to be feeling confident in this position as he comes in sporting a cry respectable 2.94 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 9-12 (-3.4 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Milwaukee is 8-3 (+3.6 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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07-03-18 | England +112 v. Colombia | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on England (2:00 EST). England rolled through the first two games of the group stage, but it came up short in a 1-0 setback to Belgium in the third. Regardless the Three Lions are in the Knockout Round and suffice it to say, I’m expecting them to roar on Tuesday afternoon. Note that England rested three players in the loss to Belgium. Colombia lost its opening match due to a red flag penalty early, but it then bounced back to win two straight to top its group. The biggest news for Colombia right now is the status of star player James Rodriguez, who has a major calf issue. Rodriguez is a question mark heading into game day, but even if he does manage to suit up, one has to wonder where his fitness level is at the moment? Colombia is still loaded with talent, as Radamel Falcao scored his 30th international goal in his team’s win over Poland in the second group stage match. England faces no such injury concerns though, as both John Stones and Dele Alli have been cleared to play. Harry Kane will also be on the field and he so far has five goals in this tournament. Stones has been big for the Three Lions as well (on both ends of the field), as he’d score two against Panama. Colombia may have kept four clean sheets in its last five games, but the “step up” in offensive competition today proves to be too much in my opinion. Several key players were rested for England against Belgium, but the team returns at full strength this afternoon and I think that’ll be the difference maker. Play on England. Good luck…Larry |
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07-02-18 | Giants -118 v. Rockies | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -118 | 29 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Francisco Giants (8:40 EST). These pitchers faced off against one another last weekend and each went seven scoreless. San Francisco enters off a momentum building 9-6 win at Arizona last night, while Colorado was busy losing 6-4 at the Dodgers. While Kyle Freeland has been better at home than on the road, I still think that this one favors the hot-hitting Giants and the surging Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner (1-2, 2.51 ERA) went seven scoreless against the Rockies last week, striking out eight and inducing 12 swinging strikes. Bumgarner comes in on top form having posted 15 scoreless inning with 16 K’s and four walks over his past two starts. Freeland (7-6, 3.29) went seven scoreless last Wednesday as well, but I’ll point out that the Rockies have done poorly in this spot for bettors all year by going just 16-17 (-2.9 units) against southpaws. Conversely note that the Giants are 17-16 (+3.8 units) against left-handed starters. I think the Giants build off last night’s victory and I look for Bumgarner to continue his progression. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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07-02-18 | Twins v. Brewers -140 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST). Minnesota comes in off a disheartening 11-10 loss at the Cubs yesterday afternoon and it now must transition to another tough inter-league series in Milwaukee. In my professional opinion, this line could in fact be much larger. The Brewers will be eager to take advantage after a listless 8-2 loss at Cincinnati yesterday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Gibson (2-6, 3.48 ERA) who gave up five runs off 11 hits over seven innings in a loss to the White Sox on Wednesday. Clearly Gibson has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but I still think he’ll falter in this NL format. The home side counters with Brent Suter (8-5, 4.28) who gave up four runs off six hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a loss to the Royals on Wednesday. Suter came into that one having won three straight, so there’s no reason not to think he can’t make an immediate rebound here. Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is a poor 19-27 (-8.8 units) this season in all night games, while Milwaukee is 34-15 (+20.2 units) in the same position. I like Suter to bounce back at home and get the better of Gibson and the Twins in the opener. Good luck…Larry |
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07-02-18 | Mexico v. Brazil | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 43 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PERFECT STORM on the DRAW between Mexico/Brazil (10:00 AM EST). Mexico upset Germany 1-0, but after the defending champs lost to South Korea 2-0 last week, that victory doesn’t look as impressive anymore. The Mexicans also lost 3-0 to Sweden in their final group fixture, putting added pressure on them to get back to form here. El Tri like to sit back and let the other side make the first mistake. Brazil obviously likes to push the pace and after a draw in its opener, it’s looked better as the tournament has worn on, capped off by a 2-0 win over Serbia in its final group game. Mexico is loaded with talent, but it’ll be doubling down on the defensive side today obviously. The last thing El Tri can do is give the Selecao any early momentum. Brazil has been decent defensively this year as well though and the “under” is also worthy of contemplation as well. I think the Mexicans come out with the game plan of playing to a “war of attrition.” Mexico would love to score the regulation upset, but it would have to like its chances in a shootout as well. I’m banking on this one going the distance. Play the draw. Good luck…Larry |
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07-01-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -141 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -141 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST). Arizona looks to bounce back in the finale of this three-game set after San Francisco blanked it 7-0 on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Derek Holland (5-7, 4.24 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits over 6.2 innings in a no-decision against Colorado on Tuesday. It was his best start of the year and it wrapped up a decent overall June run for the veteran. Regression does seem imminent though, note that he was just 7-14 with a 5.99 ERA last season. The home side counters with Zack Godley (9-5, 4.58) who gave up two runs off six hits with four K’s over five innings in a victory over Miami on Tuesday. Godley’s has serviceable numbers this year and he has been susceptible to a blow-up here or there, but note that he’s consistently been his most consistent in front of the home town crowd by posting a 4-1, 2.89 ERA record. I like Godley in this position as I think he’s the much “hungrier/focused” starter. Both Holland and the Giants are primed for a letdown in this spot. Great value, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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07-01-18 | Pirates -110 v. Padres | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
Third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (9*) 4:10 EST I like the Pirates to bounce back here after yesterday’s 4-3 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon (5-6, 3.96 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings while striking out five in a victory over the Mets on Monday. Over five June starts covering 31 innings he’s posted a sharp 2.90 ERA. Note as well that he’s 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA in all day games this year. The home side counters with Tyson Ross (5-5, 3.32) who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Rangers on Tuesday. Ross has been solid all season, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his performance in all day games to this point, going 2-2 with a pedestrian 4.53 ERA. I think that Taillon and the revenge-minded Pirates offer great value in this bounce back position. Play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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07-01-18 | Indians -118 v. A's | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8*) (4:05 EST). I like the Tribe to bounce back after yesterday’s 7-2 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (6-3, 3.03 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with two walks with four strikeouts over five innings in a loss to the Cards on Monday. He’s now posted four quality starts in his last six trips to the hill and he has to be feeling confident here, as so far he’s 3-2 with a tiny 2.39 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Frankie Montas (4-1, 3.68) who was rocked for six runs off eight hits and three walks while striking out one over three innings in a win over Detroit on Tuesday, fortunate to earn a no-decision. Clearly his early numbers were unsustainable and I think the young right-hander will be in trouble again today against the revenge-minded Indians. I like Clevinger to out duel his now sliding counterpart and for the hungry visitors to respond after yesterday’s setback. Lay the price, play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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07-01-18 | White Sox v. Rangers -163 | 10-5 | Loss | -163 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8*) (3:05 EST). The Rangers won 13-4 on Saturday and I think they’ll build off that effort with another convincing performance on Sunday. The visitors hand the ball to Reynaldo Lopez (3-5, 3.73 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits over 6.1 innings in what turned out to be a win over Minnesota on Tuesday. Lopez though has now conceded nine runs over his last 10.2 innings of work. And note that he’s been at his worst on the road with a 1-4, 4.72 ERA record. The home side counters with Cole Hamels (4-6, 3.61) who allowed four runs with five K’s over five innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Monday. Hamels would induce 13 swinging strikes and he owns an elite 97/37 K/W over 97.1 innings of work this year. This could be Hamels last start as a Ranger, as he’s rumoured to be traded to several different teams. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 15-25 (-9 units) against teams with losing records this year, while Texas is 18-13 (+4.2 units) in the same position. I like Hamels to out duel his inconsistent counterpart and for the Rangers to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-01-18 | Mets -116 v. Marlins | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (1:10 EST). After dropping the first two games of this series, I think the Mets will bounce back in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz (3-5, 3.69 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with seven K’s over seven innings in a victory over Pittsburgh on Tuesday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Matz has quietly been turning the corner for a while now, having posted quality efforts in four of his last five trips to the hill. Note that he’s been especially tough on the road as well with a sharp 2.60 ERA. The home side counters with Dan Straily (3-3, 4.82) who will begin a five game suspension starting on Tuesday after his actions against the Giants during a scuffle last week. Straiiy comes in off a win over the Diamondbacks, giving up three runs off four hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings on Monday. Previous to that though he’d gone 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over five starts. With the suspension looming and on the front of his mind as well, I think Straily makes an immediate return to mediocrity. I like Matz to out duel his distracted counterpart and for the revenge-minded Mets to avoid the sweep. Good luck…Larry |
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07-01-18 | Russia v. Spain -159 | 1-1 | Loss | -159 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Spain (10:00 AM EST). I think the Spaniards are well worth the price of admission to take this game in regulation. Spain comes in on a 23 match undefeated streak, having not lost since it was knocked out of Euro 2016. Spain topped Group B with an overall lacklustre effort, but it had to overcome the sacking of boss Julen Lopetigui on the eve of the World Cup. Russia started out with two victories, but it quickly came back down to Earth in its 3-0 loss to Uruguay in its final group stage match. If history is any precedence, then the Spaniards have to be liking their chances today, as they’ve never lost to Russia ever. Keep your eyes on Spain striker Diego Costa, who had five goals in qualifying and who had three over the first two group-stage matches. Granted, the Spaniards had a difficult time of it in the group stage, but still came out on on top. I think they’ll just get better from this point on. Denis Cheryshev had three goals over the first two games for Russia, but once matched against some world class competition, the host nation predictably stumbled. Note that Russia went seven matches without a win ahead of the World Cup as well. The Russians have never made it out of the group stage in the World Cup, so they’ve already in a small way accomplished what they’d hoped to achieve. I expect Spain to come in focused and to deliver the goods in regulation and stoppage. Good luck…Larry |
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06-30-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 32 m | Show | |
My 9* SUPER TOTAL is on the over Giants/Diamondbacks (10:10 EST). I had a play on the Giants in their 2-1 upset in Arizona last night. While Friday’s game was a pitchers duel, I think that everything points to a “slug-fest” on Saturday. The visitors hand the ball to Derek Rodriguez (2-1, 3.82 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the light-hitting Padres on Sunday. It was by far his best start of the season. Rodriguez enters with serviceable numbers (1.34 WHIP and 28/7 K/W over 30.2 innings.) If he’s had one clear weakness though it’s been his play on the road, 0-1 with a ballooned 5.68 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Shelby Miller (0-1, 12.27) who gave up five runs off six hits with two walks over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Marlins in his season debut last Monday. While his fastball reached 97.6 MPH, the short-term projections simply don’t look good for Miller, who hasn’t posted a sub 4.00 ERA since 2015. I think these two starters get chased early and I look for this total to indeed soar over the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck…Larry |
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06-30-18 | Nationals v. Phillies -116 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (6:05 EST). Washington hammered the Phillies 17-7 last night. Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time for the humbled home side. The visitors hand the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (2-0, 2.28 ERA) who returns from the DL to make this start after straining his hamstring back on June 3rd. Hellickson comes in with the elite numbers, but if ever the veteran was going to stumble, or come back down to Earth, then this would be the spot. Regression seems imminent, as his early number seem completely unsustainable over the long-term considering his career marks. The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-8, 4.69) who gave up two runs off three hits with four walks over six innings while also striking out seven in what turned out to be a hard luck loss against New York on Monday. Velasquez has been hit or miss all year, but he comes in on decent form and I think he can carry that momentum over here in what shapes up to be a favorable matchup for him. Additionally note that Washington is just 8-10 (-2.4 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Philadelphia is 16-10 (+5 units) this year at home when the money line in the contest is set in the same range. For all the reasons listed above, play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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06-30-18 | Angels -150 v. Orioles | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the LA Angels (4:05 EST). The Angels prevailed 7-1 in last night’s series opener and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for them. The visitors go with Tyler Skaggs (6-5, 2.69 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits and two walks while striking out seven over seven innings in a loss to the Royals on Monday. Over his last 28 innings (four starts), Skaggs has allowed two runs while striking out 30. And note as well that he’s been at his best on the road this year by going 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Andrew Cashner (2-8, 4.70) who gave up three runs off four hits with four walks while striking out three over six innings against Seattle on Monday. Cashner hasn’t struck out more than four batters in any of his last six starts and to go along with his unimpressive ERA, he also owns a poor 1.62 WHIP. Additionally note that he’s 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA at home this season. And finally note that LA is a superb 10-1 (+8.2 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore is just 1-6 (-4.8 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. I like Skaggs to continue his progression and I look for him to easily out duel his “gas can” counterpart. Play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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06-30-18 | Portugal v. Uruguay | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 54 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the “DRAW” in Portugal/Uruguay (2:00 EST). I think this one will go to penalties. These teams are very similar in many respects and it’s a difficult matchup to call. Both possess a wealth of talent and experience and each has the potential to make a move deep into this Tournament. Uruguay is going to be extra cautious here on the backend as it prepares itself against Portugal’s aggressive front. Uruguay kept a clean sheet for a sixth match in a row in its 2-0 win over Russia in its final Group game. Both Edison Cavani and Luis Suarez scored as well, so it has every reason to feel confident in this spot against Christiano Ronaldo and company. Portugal is tough to beat though and it has become confident on this stage as well (has only lost one competitive match inside 90 minutes since September 2014.) Neither side will be going down without a fight and in a war of attrition, the “DRAW” absolutely takes on added value in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
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06-29-18 | Giants +135 v. Diamondbacks | 2-1 | Win | 135 | 30 h 26 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (9:40 EST). The Giants will be hungry here after falling 9-8 at home to the Rockies in extra innings yesterday afternoon. After a sluggish stretch the Diamondbacks have gotten back on track of late as they return home off a satisfying road trip which included a 4-0 win on Thursday in Miami, part of a sweep of the Marlins. I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Arizona though and I’m expecting San Francisco to take advantage. The visitors go with Andrew Suarez (2-4, 4.43 ERA) who gave up one run and a walk while striking out four over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against San Diego on Saturday. Suarez has quietly been turning the corner for a while now, having allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The home side counters with Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.24) who went seven scoreless against the Pirates on Friday. Corbin came into that gem though having allowed five runs in back-to-back outings. Overall Corbin has put together a great season, but I think Suarez can match him inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I think the value absolutely swings to the focused and hungry underdog. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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06-29-18 | Braves v. Cardinals -155 | 5-1 | Loss | -155 | 29 h 58 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8*) (8:15 EST). Both teams had the night off on Thursday. Here’s another one though where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (5-5, 4.52 ERA), who gave up seven runs off six hits and three walks over 4.2 innings while striking out six in a 7-5 loss to Baltimore on Saturday. Teheran is struggling, having now walked exactly three batters in seven straight starts, posting a 6.05 ERA and 31/21 K/W over 38.2 innings over that span. The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (8-2, 2.69) who gave up two runs off three hits while striking out five over seven innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Saturday. His peripherals remain solid (0.7 HR/9 and 51 percent ground ball rate), pointing to sustainability as we approach the mid way point. Note that Mikolas is -2 with a 1.68 ERA at home as well. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Teheran is going to be in trouble once again in this tough environment. And there’s no reason not to think that Mikolas won’t be able to come out here and produce another quality effort at home. Lay the price, play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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06-29-18 | Brewers -105 v. Reds | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (9*) (7:10 EST). Milwaukee managed the 6-4 win last night over the Reds and I think the hard-hitting visiting side will find a way to get the job done on Friday as well. The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (5-6, 4.37 ERA) who gave up one earned run off two hits with four walks while striking out nine over five innings against the Cardinals on Saturday, unfortunate to earn a no-decision. Anderson hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been at his most consistent on the road so far with a very respectable 3.12 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Sal Romano (4-7, 5.40) who gave up five runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over five innings against the Cubs on Sunday, fortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Romano has been better at home than on the road, but he still has a rather poor 3-3, 4.99 ERA in Cincinnati so far this season. I’ll point out as well that Milwaukee is 38-24 (+14.7 units) this year against right-handed pitching, while the Reds are just 22-35 (-8.5 units) in the same position. I like Anderson to out duel his “gas can” counterpart and for the Brewers to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Milwaukee. Good luck…Larry |
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06-29-18 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton -3.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hamilton Tigercats (7:00 EST). The Ti-Cats started off the season with consecutive games out West and they arrive back for their first home contest with a 1-1 record. The Blue Bombers are also 1-1 after two weeks in the books. This is a revenge game of sorts for Hamilton, as Winnipeg has won three of the last four in the series. The Blue Bombers come in off a 56-10 drubbing of the Alouettes in Montreal last week. QB Chris Streveler has thrown six TD’s in two games. He’d also rush one in against the Al’s. Winnipeg looked good on both sides of the ball, but I still think it’ll have its hands full with this dangerous and hungry home side. Hamilton fell 28-14 in Calgary, but then it would travel North to Edmonton and leave with a convincing 38-21 victory. QB Jeremiah Masoli was 18 of 29 for 332 yards and three TD’s. Luke Tasker had 103 yards receiving, while Brandon Banks had 117. RB Mercer Timmis had 133 yards on 17 carries with two TD’s. Winnipeg has been an ATS covering machine the last couple of seasons, but the new look Ti-Cats catch them off guard here in my opinion. And with a home and home set against BC starting next week, it’s not too difficult to imagine the Blue Bombers in some small way looking past their lowly opponent to that more meaningful stretch. I’m banking on that happening. Play on Hamilton. Good luck…Larry |
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06-29-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 1-8 | Push | 0 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the under Red Sox/Yanks (7:05 EST). New York had the night off on Thursday, while Boston was involved in a lower-scoring 4-2 win at home over LA last night. It’s the opener of an important mid-season AL East divisional matchup and in my opinion, everything points to a lower-scoring pitchers duel in the opener. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (9-2, 3.86 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits over four innings in a forgettable loss to the Mariners on Saturday. Outings like that though have been few and far between for Rodriguez this year, so there’s no need to overreact to one poor effort (note that the sub-par showing broke a string of six consecutive starts in which he earned a victory.) Note as well that he’s been particularly sharp on the road by going 4-0 with a 3.57 ERA. The home side counters with CC Sabathia (4-3, 3.18) who took a loss despite allowing just two runs (only one earned) over 5.1 innings against Tampa Bay on Friday. The veteran has looked sharp overall this year and of late, allowing three or fewer runs in each of his last five trips to the mound. Additionally note that the southpaw has been particularly good at home with a 2-1, 2.74 ERA record thus far. I think this one lines up perfectly for a battle into the latter frames by these starters, which will in turn result in a lower-score once it’s all said and done. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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06-29-18 | Twins v. Cubs -115 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8*) (5:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in the opener of this interleague series. The Twins hand the ball to Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.15 ERA) who struck out 12 batters over seven shutout innings in a 2-0 victory over Texas last time out. Berrios has looked sharp overall this season, but if he’s had one clear weakness, it’s been his performance on the road where he’s just 2-3 with a 4.16 ERA, compared to 6-2 with a 2.52 ERA at home. The home side counters with Mike Montgomery (2-2, 3.39) , who has looked great as a starter in his limited time so far, posting a 2.02 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and 25 K’s over 35.2 innings spanning six starts. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 62-86 (-18 units) the last three years in all inter-league contests, while Chicago is 34-20 (+4.6 units) in the same position and time frame. I think Berrios stumbles in the NL format and I look for Montgomery to continue his steady progression in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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06-28-18 | Ottawa v. Calgary -7.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 36 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Calgary Stampeders (9:00 EST). I think this will be a competitive battle throughout, but I look for the Stamps to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable victory and cover. Last year these teams played each other in Weeks 1 and 2. Both games were tight, as they tied 31-31 in Ottawa, before the Stamps won 43-39 in Week 2 to stay unbeaten in four home meetings in the series. The Redblacks rolled to a 40-17 win in their season opener over Saskatchewan, as QB Trevor Harris threw for 345 yards and a pair of major scores. William Powell was a bright spot on the ground with 94 yards and a TD as well. Calgary got its revenge in Toronto after losing to the Argos in the Grey Cup last year, pulling away for a 41-7 blowout victory last week. QB Bo Levi Mitchell completed a franchise-best 90.9 percent of his passes for 324 yards and three TD’s. Eric Rogers was unstoppable as well with five catches for 131 yards and two scores. The combination of Terry Williams and Don Jackson also produced 193 yards on the ground. It’s interesting to note though that Ottawa is a poor 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Calgary is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 as a home fav in the 7.5 to ten points range (also 17-8 ATS in its last 25 after two more SU victories.) As mentioned off the top, I’m expecting a spirited battle from the visitors, but I think the Stamps come in razor focused and find a way to cover once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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