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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-11-18 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 45 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the under Capitals/Lightning (8:05 EST). Tampa took two of three in the regular season between these clubs. The Capitals needed six games to get by the Penguins last round, while the Bolts edged the Bruins in five. The Lightning come in focused, while Washington comes in motivated after finally getting the monkey off its back with its win over Pittsburgh, a team which had knocked it out of the playoffs in each of the last two years. Each teams possesses unbelievable offensive depth, experience and talent. But the reason these two clubs are where they are right now is because of their goaltending to this point. The Capitals’ Braden Holtby is 8-3 with a 2.04 GAA and he easily outplayed his counterpart in Matt Murray last time out. The Lightnings’ Andrei Vasilevskly is 8-2 with a 2.20 GAA and he’d also be the difference maker in the last round, getting the better of Bruins’ veteran Tuukka Rask. From a trend based stand point, this one sets up well for a lower-scoring goaltenders battle as well, as note that Washington has seen the total go under the number in seven of 11 road games this year when the total in the contest was set at six or more, while Tampa has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five when playing with three days rest. I think each side comes out a little flat footed, as fatigue becomes a major factor at this time of year. With each team playing it a bit cautious to start this series, it leaves the door open for the netminders to become the main focal point in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-11-18 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Mets/Phillies (7:05 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head and in my opinion, this one has “pitchers duel” written all over it. The Mets hand the ball to Stephen Matz (1-3, 4.23 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk over six innings while striking out five against Colorado on Saturday. It was easily his best start of the year and I think he’ll build off it. Despite a pedestrian 4.23 ERA, Matz does own a solid 10.1 K/9. The home side counters with ace Jake Arrieta (3-1, 3.15) who gave up one run off two hits while walking two and striking out two over six innings against Washington on Sunday. Arrieta’s strikeout numbers are way down, but his 60.4 ground ball rate is up significantly. I’ll point out that New York has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last nine against the division, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight against clubs with winning records. I think these two pitchers battle deep and this one falls under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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05-11-18 | Rays v. Orioles -120 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Faria (3-1, 4.15 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk over 5.1 innings to earn a victory over the Jays on Saturday. Faria for the most part has been excellent, but his weakness has clearly been on the road where he’s a poor 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Kevin Gausman (2-2, 3.30) who gave up two hits and two walks while striking out six over nine scoreless against the A’s on Saturday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his brilliant effort. To go along with his respectable ERA, Gausman also sports a sharp 1.15 WHIP over 43.2 innings of work thus far. I’ll point out as well that Tampa is just 45-52 (-8.6 units) on the road when the money line in set between +125 and -125 the last two years, while Baltimore is 52-45 (+4.6 units) at home in the same price range and span. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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05-11-18 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays +180 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 180 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). Ultimately I believe that Aaron Sanchez and the home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. The Red Sox turn to ace Chris Sale (3-1, 2.02 ERA) who comes in off s strong effort against Texas on Sunday, giving up one run off four hits and a walk while also striking out 12 over seven innings. The home side counters with Sanchez (2-3, 4.14) who gave up four runs off five hits and over 3.2 innings in a loss to Tampa on Saturday. Sanchez is still trying to find his form after a lengthy injury sidelined him for most of last season. Sanchez though has the pedigree and track record to compete with Sale today and note as well that Toronto is still 7-5 (+3.8 units) this season against clubs with winning records. The Red Sox have been on an absolute tear and it’s hard to say too many negative things about them, but in my opinion all signs point to a letdown here after their series in New York earlier this week. The value is simply too great to turn down in my opinion. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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05-10-18 | Cardinals -147 v. Padres | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (10:10 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Miles Mikolas (4-0, 2.70 ERA) who continues to find ways to win, most recently scattering seven hits over seven scoreless innings while striking out four and walking no one in a victory over the Cubs on Friday. Mikolas’s peripherals suggest this his current arc is sustainable, as note that to go along with his solid 2.70 ERA he also owns an elite 0.98 WHIP and a massive 31/2 K/W thus far. Note as well that he’s been particularly effective on the road with a 3.20 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Jordan Lyles (0-0, 3.66), who will make his first start of the year here. So far he’s looked pretty good out of the pen with a 3.66 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Note though that Lyles would post a poor 1-3, 8.12 ERA in all night games last season as a starter. Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is a superb 9-3 (+5.1 units) this season against clubs with losing records, while SD is just 5-9 (-1.8 units) against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cards. Good luck…Larry |
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05-10-18 | Jets v. Predators -158 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -158 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Nashville Predators (8:05 EST). Winnipeg is going with Connor Hellebuyck in net in Game 7 and he’s so far 7-4 with a 2.36 GAA in the playoffs, while Nashville turns to Pekka Rinne, who is 7-5 with a 2.94 GAA. Despite any success it’s had in the playoffs, I’ll point out that the achilles heel of Winnipeg has been its play on the road, where it’s a pedestrian 23-23, averaging 2.93 goals in those contests and conceding 2.80. And despite any struggles that it’s occurred in the postseason, note that Nashville is still 31-16 at home overall this year, averaging 3.34 goals and conceding 2.68 in those games. I’ll point out as well that the Jets are a poor 1-5 in their last six following a home loss of three or more goals, while the Predators are interestingly 23-9 in their last 32 when their opponent scores two goals or less in its previous contest. Home ice matters in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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05-10-18 | Braves v. Marlins +113 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST). I think that hard-throwing Caleb Smith and the home side offer great value in this spot. The visitors turn to Mike Foltynewicz (2-2, 3.65 ERA) who was most recently rocked for six runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the Giants on Friday. This was by far Foltynewicz’s worst start of the year, so there’s no reason to completely overreact, but that said, it’s not the most encouraging sign either. Smith (2-3, 3.67) comes in off a gem against the Reds on Saturday, allowing three hits over six scoreless while also striking out seven in the eventual victory. To go along with his solid 3.67 ERA, Smith also sports an elite 12.6 K/9 (and note that he’s been particularly effective at home by posting a tiny 2.08 ERA there thus far.) I’ll point out as well that despite its decent start, ATL is still a poor 3-4 (-1.2 units) against teams with losing records this season. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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05-10-18 | Giants v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the under Giants/Phillies (1:05 EST). It takes a lot off offense to score ten runs, especially in the National League. While neither of these starters instils much confidence, I still think that this number is a little high. The visitors turn to Ty Blach (3-3, 3.60 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits over 7.2 innings while striking out two in a win over Atlanta on Saturday. Blach threw 71 of his 100 pitches for strikes to post his fourth quality outing of the campaign. The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (2-4, 5.14) who comes in off a gem himself over the Nationals on Saturday, allowing one run off one hit over five innings. Velasquez struggled in three straight outings previous to this decent performance, so while I’m not going to overreact, there’s still no question that it was a big step in the correct direction. I’ll point out as well that San Fran has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 18 against right-handed starters already this year, while Philly has seen the total dip below the posted number in 45 of its last 78 against southpaws. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-09-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -116 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST). Here’s another matchup where I believe the “home field advantage” will play a significant role in the final outcome. The visitors turn to Patrick Corbin (4-0, 2.15 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in a victory over these very Dodgers on Thursday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision. Corbin has to this point been superb, but I think regression is imminent. The home side counters with Alex Wood (0-3, 3.83) who most recently allowed one run off four hits while striking out eight over five innings in a no-decision to these very Diamondbacks throwing opposite Corbin. So far Wood has posted a 38/5 K/W and .45 HR/9. I’ll also point out that LA is 4-1 in its last five after giving up five or more runs in its previous contest. Wood gets off the schneid finally and punches one into the win column and the overachieving Corbin finally has a letdown. Play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia 76ers (8:00 EST). My most recent 10* 34-Club Play release came on the 76ers in Game 4 and suffice it to say with their backs once again “against the wall,” I’m expecting the visiting side to find a way to take this one back home for a Game 6. Philadelphia finally got into the win column in Game 4’s 103-92 victory. Ben Simmons had 19 points and 13 boards, while TJ McConnell added 19. Big man Joel Embiid had 19 points and 13 boards. Boston ran out of gas in Game 4 and everything points to another letdown here in my opinion. The Celtics have so far shot just 44.6 percent from the floor. After a gruelling seven game series win over the Bucks and three straight victories over the 76ers, I think the writing is on the wall for the exhausted home side. I’ll point out that Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 following an ATS victory. I think the 76ers have the momentum now and I look for them to push Boston to the brink with another big effort. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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05-09-18 | Royals v. Orioles -123 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). After their blowout loss on Tuesday night, I look for the Orioles to bounce back on Wednesday night. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Eric Skoglund (1-2, 6.84 ERA) who was most recently shelled for five runs off eight hits while striking out six over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Thursday. Skoglund entered that one with an opponents’ hard-hit rate at nearly 50 percent and it didn’t improve after that “dud.” The home side counters with Andrew Cashner (1-4, 4.89) who gave up four runs (three earned) off six hits over 4.2 innings in a loss to the A’s on Friday. Cashner has been hit or miss this year, but note that he owned a respectable 2.81 ERA in all “home games” last season. I’ll also point out that KC is just 1-5 in its last six after scoring ten or more runs in its previous contest, while Baltimore is 5-2 in its last seven after allowing ten or more runs. For all the reasons listed above, bank on Baltimore bouncing back on Wednesday night. Good luck…Larry |
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05-09-18 | Giants v. Phillies -120 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). The Giants achilles heel the last few seasons has been their play on the road. Philadelphia hasn’t been great at home in that span either, but in this particular matchup I don’t think that the “home field advantage” can be overlooked as a very real factor working in favor of Nick Pivetta and the Phillies. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Stratton (3-2, 3.99 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings to earn a victory over Atlanta on Friday. Stratton has actually been better on the road than at home this season, but I still think he’ll be in over his head here against the determined home side. Philadelphia counters with Nick Pivetta (1-2, 4.76) who comes in off an outing to forget by allowing six runs off five hits over just one inning in a loss against Washington on Friday. Despite that dud of an effort and his uninspiring 4.76 ERA, Pivetta still owns a solid 35/10 K/W. I’ll point out as well that San Fran is just 8-9 (-1.1 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Philly is 14-12 (+1.2 units) in the same position. The advantages are slim, but they all add up to make the home side the correct call in this particular matchup. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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05-09-18 | Tigers +115 v. Rangers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Detroit Tigers (2:05 EST). As good as the Rangers’ Bartolo Colon has looked in the early going, I firmly believe that this line could easily be a lot larger as I expect Francisco Liriano and the hard-hitting Tigers to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Liriano (3-1, 2.97 ERA) comes in off a gem against the Royals on Friday, allowing one run off three hits while striking out five and walking two over seven innings. Opponents are averaging just .187 off him and he sports a strong 2.97 ERA and solid 26/16 K/W thus far. Colon (1-1, 3.29) comes in off a loss against the Red Sox on Friday, allowing four runs off five hits over seven innings. Colon owns an elite 0.83 WHIP still, but in my opinion regression is imminent. Liriano put together a strong spring and his consistency carried over. Colon got out to an unreal start, but reality it would seem is starting to catch up to the veteran. Everything points to a blowout. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Pelicans (10:35 EST). I’ve played on New Orleans through each of the first four games of this series and I’m just 1-3. But with their backs against the wall, I expect the desperate Pelicans to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. So far New Orleans is hitting 47.9 percent from the floor, while shooting 36.1 percent from range. Big man Anthony Davis was a bright spot in a losing cause last time out with 26 points and 12 boards, while E’Twaun Moore added 20. The Warriors can smell the Western Conference Finals, but I think they’ll come in a tiny bit complacent here. Golden State is so far hitting 46.7 percent from the floor, and only 33.6 percent from range. Kevin Durant came up huge last time out with 38 points, nine boards and four steals. Draymond Green was another bright spot with eight boards, nine boards and nine assists. I’ll point out though that the Pelicans are still 6-1 ATS in their last seven on the road, while the Warriors are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 after a SU victory and only 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when playing on one days rest. Desperation breeds motivation and winning unquestionably can lead to complacency. I’m banking on the desperate visitors at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I believe to be an ample amount of points afforded to them. Play on New Orleans. Good luck…Larry |
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05-08-18 | Nationals -125 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Nationals (10:10 EST). Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Washington hands the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 3.00 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Thursday, going six scoreless and scattering three hits while striking out four. 44 of his 61 pitches went for strikes and after four starts this year the veteran owns a solid 3.00 ERA and 13/4 K/W. The home side counters with the volatile Clayton Richard (1-4, 6.21) who was rocked by San Francisco on Wednesday to the tune of seven runs off eight hits and four walks over four innings. To go along with his unsightly ERA, Richard also sports a poor 1.73 WHIP. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often recent form is the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Hellickson is on the cusp of punching his first one into the win column, while Richard has another long-night ahead of him. All things considered, I think this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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05-08-18 | Pirates -133 v. White Sox | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10 EST). Ultimately I feel that this inter league contest favors Ivan Nova and the Pirates. Nova (2-2, 4.01 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget against the hard-hitting Nationals on Wednesday, allowing eight runs over 4.2 innings. Blowout games like that happen to even the best, so I’m not overreacting to one poor start. Note that previous to that Nova entered with a stellar 2.28 ERA over 27.2 innings of work. And a date against the hapless White Sox and Luis Giolito (1-4, 7.03) is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked. Giolito most recently allowed three runs off four hits and two walks over six innings in a loss to the Cards on Wednesday. To go along with his ghastly 7.03 ERA, Giolito also sports a sub-par 1.56 WHIP and 18/23 K/W. After stringing together back-to-back decent outings, regression seems imminent for the 23-year old in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is a solid 16-14 (+1.5 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Chicago is just 7-17 (-9.2 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-08-18 | Jazz +12.5 v. Rockets | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Utah Jazz (8:05 EST). It’s do-or-die. Time to put up or shut up. The Jazz face elimination tonight and because of that, I think the visitors will keep this one very competitive until the final moments. Utah is so far shooting 45.5 percent from the field in the playoffs and also hitting 35.9 percent from range. Donovan Mitchell was a bright spot in a losing cause last time out with 25 points and nine boards, while Joe Ingles added 15 points and 18 boards. Big man Rudy Gobert was also productive with 11 points, ten boards and three blocks. The Rockets are hitting 44.2 percent from the floor in this series, including only 34.2 percent from range. Chris Paul led the charge in the Game 4 victory with 27 points, 12 boards and six assists, while James Harden added 24 points. I’ll point out though that Houston is still just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest, while Utah is 3-1 ATS in its last four when trailing in a playoff series. This one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the points, play on the Jazz. Good luck…Larry |
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05-08-18 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 207.5 | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Jazz/Rockets (8:05 EST). If you’ve bought this three-game report, then you have access to my analysis on the Jazz. I don’t think that Utah is going to win Game 5 outright, but I do expect Utah to play very competitively. The Jazz were shutdown at home by Houston in Game 4 and because of that, I’m expecting the usually defensive minded visitors to instead push the pace of this one from start to finish. I like the Jazz, but Houston won’t be rolling over obviously as it looks to end this series tonight as it looks to avoid an awkward Game 6 back in Utah. As far as I’m concerned, the overall conditions of this one just scream “over.” I’ll point out as well though that from a trend based stand point, this one also sets up extremely well for a higher-scoring shootout. As note that the Jazz have seen the total go over the number in five of their last eight when trailing in a playoff series, while Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last 11 when leading in a playoff series. I think this number is indeed a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-08-18 | Twins v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 7-1 | Push | 0 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the under Twins/Cards (1:15 EST). I think these competent starters will battle deep and I look for this total to fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi (2-2, 4.10 ERA), who comes in off a no-decision against the White Sox on Tuesday, giving up five runs (just three earned) over 5.1 innings, the silver lining being that he’d strike out a season-high eight and walk only two. Odorizzi was coming off a superb effort/victory over the Reds, but he’d stumble a bit in this one. Note that the hard-throwing right-hander sports a solid 1.39 WHIP thus far over 37.1 innings of work. The home side counters with ace Carlos Martinez (3-1, 1.40 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits and two walks while striking out five over 7.1 innings against the White Sox on Wednesday. His 9.0 K/9 is modest for his standards, but Martinez’s peripherals all suggest that the good times should continue to roll. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota has already seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of 12 day games this year, while St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in three of four already this season as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-18 | Predators +127 v. Jets | Top | 4-0 | Win | 127 | 37 h 33 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Nashville Predators (9:30 EST). It’s do or die for the visitors. Suffice it to say, I think the desperate Predators offer great value in this spot. Nashville was embarrassed 6-2 in Game 5 and I’m expecting this talented club to respond here. The Predators Pekka Rinne is so far 6-5 with a 3.23 GAA in the playoffs, while the Jets’ Connor Hellebyuck is 7-3 with a 2.29 GAA. Nashville is comfortable on the road, so far it’s 28-18 away from friendly confines, averaging 3.04 goals and conceding 2.50 in those contests. Rinne has a long history of dominance over Winnipeg as well, as he’s now 15-5 with a 2.41 GAA lifetime against it. Winnipeg is averaging 3.80 goals in the playoffs and conceding 2.30. Hellebyuck though is still a pedestrian 6-5 with a 3.20 GAA lifetime against the Preds. I’ll point out as well that Nashville is 18-11 (+4.8 units) this year after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest, while Winnipeg is just 1-3 (-2.3 units) in its last four when leading in a playoff series. Desperation breeds motivation. I think this series has Game 7 written all over it. Play on Nashville. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-18 | Raptors +6 v. Cavs | 93-128 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 30 m | Show | |
My 9* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Toronto Raptors (8:35 EST). Toronto fought tooth and nail all season to gain home court advantage in the Playoffs for this exact matchup. The Cavs have knocked the Raptors out of the playoffs each of the last two seasons and with a 3-0 start in this series, Cleveland is well on its way doing it again. The Cavs were pushed to seven games by the Pacers in their first round series and I firmly believed the the Raptors would be able to take advantage of that fact. But LeBron James has elevated his play to another level once again and he now has his team poised for another return to the Eastern Conference Finals. Toronto will be playing for pride here as it desperately tries to stave off elimination. The Raptors have so far been confounded in this matchup, but there’s no question that the visitors possess the skill and depth to at least take one game in this series outright. Note as well that the Cavs are 0-5 ATS at home this postseason and when going for a sweep they are a 'money-burning' 13-32-1 (28.9%) ATS at home on the year. I’m banking on the Raptors playing their best game of this series and I look for them to take this one back to Toronto for at least one more contest. Grab the points, play on the Raptors. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-18 | Tigers v. Rangers +107 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 107 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). Matt Moore and the home side offer great value in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Michael Fulmer (1-2, 2.80 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Rays on Wednesday. Fulmer need 109 pitches to get through the six frames and while he’s now posted three straight quality outings, I think he’ll have his hands full here against Moore and company. Moore (1-4, 7.67) is coming off an outing to forget in which he was shelled for ten runs off 11 hits over four innings against the Tribe on Wednesday. Moore hasn’t gotten out to the start he’d hoped for for his new team, but note that the Rangers are a strong 138-121 (+26.2 units) in all “night” games the last two seasons, while Detroit is just 94-127 (-29.4 units) in the same position/span. Both teams have struggled this year, but I like Moore and the hungry home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-18 | Capitals v. Penguins -166 | 2-1 | Loss | -166 | 34 h 4 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (7:00 EST). If you’re a fan of the NHL and you’re wagering on these games, then breaking down individual player match ups is pretty pointless. These are two of the most high-profile teams in the league and their players, their strengths and their weaknesses are well known to NHL fans and bettors. For the most part these clubs are very evenly matched. Up front, in the back and in the net. On any given Sunday, either of these teams could beat the other. But it’s been the Pens that have “had” the Caps number the last few seasons and I think they’ll bounce back in fine fashion here in front of the home town crowd once again. Note that teams that have won Game 5 of a best-of-seven series tied two games apiece have gone on to win the series 202 out of 256 times (78.9 percent), according to the Elias Sports Bureau. That's good news for the Caps but they haven't made the Eastern Conference finals since 1998. In fact, the last time Washington was in a chance to advance to the Eastern Conference final, the Caps blew a 3-1 series lead to the Rangers in 2015. Each of the last two postseasons they have lost to the Penguins in the second round and Pittsburgh has beaten Washington in NINE of the 10 postseason series in which the two teams have squared off. I like the defending champs to take care of business on their home ice and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price with confidence, play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-18 | Capitals v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 113 | 34 h 4 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Caps/Pens (7:00 EST). For the most part Washington goaltender Braden Holtby has looked a lot better than Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray. That hasn’t always been the case historically though between these competent net-minders. The Pens will be looking to “shore things up” on the defensive though as they face elimination and with the home side putting a concerted effort onto that end of the ice, I do indeed expect a classic “goaltenders battle” in Game 6. The Pens are on the brink of elimination and they’re going to be risking life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes tonight. Washington is on the brink of advancing, but it has a long and recent history of complete failure in this position (2015 East Conf Finals 3-1 lead on the Rangers, only to fall 4-3 in the most recent.) The conditions definitely set up for a more of a defensive battle. I’ll also point out though that Washington has seen the total go under the number in six of its last nine when leading in a playoff series, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four when trailing in a playoff series. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 33 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Philadelphia 76ers (6:05 EST). It’s the biggest game of the year for the 76ers. Philadelphia is in an 0-3 hole and it’ll be playing for pride today as it desperately tries to avoid the sweep. I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve been wrong about this Boston team up until now. The Celtics are playing at an extremely high level, helped by the brilliance of head coach Brad Stevens. But in my opinion, a letdown is imminent here. The Celtics edged Philly 101-98 in Game 3, as the Sixers not only shot just 39.2% for the game but also just 30% on threes (9-of-30). What's more, the Sixers were just plain sloppy down the stretch. However, don't expect this up and coming young team to go quietly in Game 4. Let's not forget that Boston lost all three games at Milwaukee in the first round, getting blown out in two of them (by 24 and 16 points) plus the Celtics lone cover came in a game in which they once trailed by 28 points! Yes, the 76ers are just 2-2 SU & ATS this postseason at home but they finished the regular season on a 21-1 SU run at home, going 17-5 ATS. This one has complete blowout written all over it. Boston takes the night off and then tries to wrap this one up at home. Lay the points, play on the 76ers. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-18 | Cubs +110 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST). After dropping the first two games of this series, I like the visitors to bounce back and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this one. The Cubs hand the ball to Jon Lester (2-1, 2.73 ERA), who enters off an unfortunate no-decision against the Rockies on Monday, allowing two runs off five hits while striking out five over 5.2 innings of work. So far the opposition is hitting just .222 off Lester this year and there’s no reason not to think that the crafty southpaw won’t be able to carry that momentum over here. The home side counters with Michael Wacha (4-1, 3.62) who gave up two runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision against the White Sox on Tuesday. Opponents are hitting just .246 off Wacha. It’s hard to say too many negative things about the Cards’ hard-throwing right-hander, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. As note that Chicago is still 14-9 (+2.9 units) this season against clubs with winning records, while St. Louis is just 75-82 (-12 units) the last two years in the same position (and just 3-4 in its last seven.) I’m banking on the hungry visitors bouncing back in the Sunday Nighter. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-18 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -135 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -135 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the San Jose Sharks (3:00 EST). I base my selections on many different things. For this particular play though, I’m using common sense for the most part. This has been a very tight series, but with their backs against the wall and facing elimination, I’m banking on the home side Sharks to buckle down and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Both teams have looked fantastic at times in this series and extremely pedestrian/poor in others. For arguments sake on this one, let’s call the goaltenders a “wash.” As mentioned off the top, I base my picks on many different things, including individual player match ups. But this particular play has nothing at all to do with match ups, but everything to do with the “elimination factor,” the “home ice” factor and note as well that the Sharks are an excellent 21-9 (+12.2 units) this season after allowing four goals or more in their previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, play on San Jose. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans +5.5 | 118-92 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the New Orleans Pelicans (3:30 EST). I released one of my signature “LEGEND” plays on the Pelicans last time out and they’d go on to smash the Warriors 119-100. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question here either, in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra time, I’m going to grab the points and the hungry home side. Golden State is shooting 46.5 percent from the floor in the playoffs, but just 33.6 percent from range. Klay Thompson was a bright spot in a losing cause last time out with 26 points, while Kevin Durant added 22. The Warriors bench looked pathetic though, managing 20 points between them (with eight of those points coming in garbage time.) New Orleans is hitting 49.5 percent from the floor in the postseason, including 38.9 percent from range. The Pelicans were on fire in Game 3, hitting 50 percent from the floor and 14 of 31 from behind the arc. Big man Anthony Davis led the way with 33 points, 18 boards, three assists and four steals in the victory, while Jrue Holiday added 21 points, seven boards and five assists. From a trend based stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for the home side as well, as note that Golden State is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 when playing on one days rest and only 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while New Orleans is 5-0 ATS its last five at home and 6-0 ATS in its last six following a SU victory over more than ten points. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-18 | Bruins +140 v. Lightning | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
y 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Bruins (3:00 EST). I had a big play on the Bruins last time out and they’d unfortunately come up short in the 4-3 OT setback. With its back against the wall and facing elimination though, I like Boston to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night here. Boston is 24-22 on the road, averaging 2.91 goals and conceding 2.63 in those contests. Goaltender Tuukka Rask is 5-6 with a 2.96 GAA so far in the playoffs and over his career against the Bolts he’s now 16-8 with a 2.49 GAA. Tampa is 33-13 at home, averaging 3.57 goals and conceding 2.91 in those games. Netminder Andrei Vasilevskly is so far 7-2 with a 2.33 GAA in the playoffs and over his career he’s now 1-5 with a 2.51 GAA against the Bruins. Likely there will be many prognosticators laying the larger price and jumping on the Lightning bandwagon to end this series at home, but I think the desperate Bruins still have plenty of fight left in them. Play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-18 | Twins -139 v. White Sox | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (2:10 EST). Like my pick on the Indians, I ultimately think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound (and at the plate) than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the surging Kyle Gibson (1-1, 3.38 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Jays on Tuesday, giving up two runs off five hits over five innings while walking two and striking out six. To go along with his respectable 3.38 ERA, Gibson also sports a respectable 1.28 WHIP. Gibson’s peripherals point to good times ahead, as his 10.1 K/9 is well above his career mark of 6.5 K/9. The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (1-3, 5.35) who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off two hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Cards on Tuesday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Shields though over the last couple of seasons and note that he still owns a poor 19/17 K/W through his 35.1 innings of work thus far. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is already 4-2 (+2 units) against the division, while Chicago is just 6-8 (-2.4 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-18 | Indians +130 v. Yankees | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (1:05 EST). Cleveland has dropped the first two games of this series, but I think the visitors will bounce back in what I believe to a be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Cleveland hands the ball to Mike Clevinger (2-0, 2.82 ERA) who enters off an unfortunate no-decision against the Rangers on Tuesday, giving up three runs off seven hits and one walk while striking out seven over 6.2 innings. Note that Clevinger was particularly effective on the road last year by going 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA. The Yanks counter with Domingo German (0-1, 3.77), who will make this start in place of the injured Jordan Montgomery. German has looked decent in his limited time with an 18/7 K/W over 14.1 innings, but clearly he faces a difficult task today vs. these hungry/desperate and revenge minded Indians. I think Clevinger and the Tribe offer fantastic value in this bounce back spot. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-18 | Orioles +145 v. A's | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (9:05 EST). I think that Kevin Gausmann and the hungry Orioles offer fantastic value in this spot. Gausmann (2-2, 4.15) comes in off a gem against the Tigers on Sunday, giving up one run off five hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in Sunday’s 5-3 victory. Gausmann is back on track after a horrible debut, posting three straight quality starts in which he’s conceded two runs or less. The home side goes with Trevor Cahill (1-1, 3.00) who gave up four runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to Houston on Sunday. Cahill has been better than expected so far this year, but I think he’s extremely overpriced in this spot. I like the hard-hitting Orioles to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Baltimore. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Raptors (8:30 EST). To say I’m surprised by the energy levels of LeBron James and the Cavs after their gruelling seven game series win over the Pacers would be an understatement. James is putting up historic numbers over the first two games of this series and now Toronto finds itself in a disastrous 2-0 hole. All the hard work that the Raptors put in to gain home court advantage in the playoffs over the regular season has been completely wasted. Toronto has had little success on the road in the playoffs and even less when facing a James led team. But with all of that said, I do now firmly believe that the Raptors will put together their most complete game in this series and while an outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Kyle Lowry was a bright spot in the losing cause in Game 2 for Toronto and so far he’s averaging a solid 17.8 PPG. DeMar DeRozan struggled though with 24 points on 11 of 23 shooting, including going 0 for 5 from range. Suffice it to say, I think DeRozan is poised for a breakout performance in this series. James was unstoppable in Game 2, but he looked very pedestrian at times during the win over Indiana in the first round. Toronto only gave up an average of 103 PPG during the regular season and it goes without saying that I’m expecting the visitors to do a much better job defending The King this time around. I’ll point out as well that Toronto is 9-6 ATS as an underdog this season, while Cleveland is just 20-47 ATS as the fav (and just 13-31 ATS at home.) For all the reasons listed above, play on the Raptors. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-18 | Penguins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 37 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Pens/Caps (7:00 EST). These teams are all tied up at two games apiece. Game 5 is an important one and I’m expecting more of a wide open offensive affair as each side pushes the pace in search of a crucial victory. Note that Pittsburgh comes in ranked as the No. 1 offense in the playoffs with an average of 3.80 GPG, while conceding 2.60. Goaltender Matt Murray was 10-12 with a 3.05 GAA on the road this year and note that vs. the Capitals he’s just 4-4 with a 3.26 GAA. Washington is averaging 3.50 goals in the playoffs and conceding 2.80. Goaltender Braden Holtby is 6-3 with a 2.07 GAA overall in the playoffs, but just 8-11 with a 2.90 GAA lifetime against the Pens. I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in 18 of 29 this year after a victory by two goals or more, while Washington has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 31 of 50 against winning clubs this season. For all the reasons listed above, play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-18 | Marlins v. Reds -116 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -116 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST). In a contest between bottom feeders, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors turn to the volatile Caleb Smith (1-3, 4.40 ERA) who picked up a win against the Rockies on Sunday, going seven scoreless and striking out nine. Smith has looked decent over his last two outings, but note that he’s still 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA on the road this season. The home side goes with Tyler Mahle (2-3, 4.32) who comes in off a gem as well, holding the Twins to one run off four hits while striking out seven over seven innings. Both teams have been terrible, with Miami sitting at 11-19 overall and the Reds at 7-24 as of writing. But Smith’s road issues are a major concern for Miami bettors tonight. Conversely, everything points to Mahle building off his latest gem as he takes advantage of familiar surroundings. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Reds. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -9.5 | 101-98 | Loss | -103 | 35 h 28 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia 76ers (5:00 EST). I’ll admit, the Celtics have surprised me. Boston needed seven games to get by the Bucks and I thought they’d be “gassed” after that exhausting series. But Boston destroyed Philadelphia in Game 1. A letdown spot seemed imminent in Game 2, but once again the C’s battled from behind and found a way to get the job done at the end of the night. While the Celtics managed to get a win in the first two games, I do now firmly believe that Boston will have a predictable letdown on the road here. Boston is managing to win despite shooting poorly, just 44.8 percent from the field thus far, including 37.6 percent from range. Jayson Tatum had 21 points in the Game 2 victory, while Terry Rozier added 20 points, seven boards and nine assists. Philly looked sluggish in Game 1 after nearly a week off, but there was no excuse for its collapse in Game 2. Rookie Ben Simmons is going to be playing with a chip on his shoulder tonight after being held to just 1 point in Game 2. Joel Embiid was a bright spot in the losing cause with 20 points and 14 boards. Note that Boston is still just 4-6 ATS this year after playing three consecutive home games, while Philadelphia is 29-14 ATS at home and 25-21 ATS this season trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I do not think that the Celtics are as good as they’ve shown over the first two games and I do not believe that the 76ers are as bad as they’ve seemed in the same span. Expect a big time “correction” this evening, as everything points to a blow-out of epic proportions. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-18 | Phillies v. Nationals -134 | 3-1 | Loss | -134 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (4:05 EST). After a slow start, the high-powered Nats come into Saturday on a bit of a roll and suffice it to say, I expect Washington to carry that momentum over here. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Vince Velasquez (1-4, 5.70 ERA) who was shelled for six runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out four over five innings in a loss to the Braves on Sunday. Note that Velasquez was just 2-7 with a 5.13 ERA last year, including just 1-2 with a 4.01 ERA on the road. The home side sends Tanner Roark (2-2, 3.55) to the hill and he comes in off a gem against the Pirates on Monday, allowing two earned runs off six hits while also striking out four over seven innings. To go along with his solid 3.55 ERA, Roark also owns an elite 1.03 WHIP. Over 38 innings opponents are managing just .194 off him over 38 frames of work. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is just 108-160 (-34.9 units) against right-handed starts over the last two years, while Washington is already 13-8 (+1.2 units) in the same position this season. For all the reasons listed above, lay this very reasonable price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-18 | Cubs -101 v. Cardinals | 2-3 | Loss | -101 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Cubs (8:15 EST). I like the hard-hitting visiting side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Cubs turn to Jose Quintana (3-1, 5.74 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the year after allowing just two hits and one walk over seven scoreless while also striking out seven in a victory over the Brewers on Wednesday. Quintana has turned the corner, having posted a 14/2 K/W over his last two starts. The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (3-0, 3.27) who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings in a no-decision against the Pirates on Friday. Mikolas has looked sharp so far for the Cards, but in my opinion regression is imminent. Note as well that Chicago is 9-5 (+1.7 units) against the division already this year and 8-3 (+2.4 units) following a loss, while St. Louis is just 6-7 (-3.2 units) against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans +4.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the New Orleans Pelicans (8:05 EST). It’s the Pelicans biggest game of the year (until Game 4 of course), but an 0-3 hole would almost assuredly be too much for New Orleans to overcome against the Warriors. With the home side risking life and limb to get back into this series, I expect the Pelicans to at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door. Note that on April 7th, the Pelicans beat Golden State in New Orleans 126-120. Kevin Durant has so far led the way for the Warriors in the Playoffs and he had 29 points in the Game 2 victory. Stephen Curry will be in the starting line-up tonight for the visitors, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough against this desperate home side. New Orleans is shooting well in the postseason at 49.4 percent, including 37.7 percent from range. Anthony Davis was a bright spot in a losing cause last time out with 25 points, 15 boards, five assists, two steals and three blocks, while Jrue Holiday added 24 points, eight boards and eight assists. I’ll point out as well that Golden State is a poor 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while the Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four at home. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. Play on New Orleans Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-18 | Giants v. Braves -136 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -136 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). I think the surging Braves are well worth the price of admission in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Stratton (2-2, 3.90 ERA) who was shelled for six runs off six hits and four walks over 1.1 innings against the Dodgers on Saturday. Stratton was rolling coming into this start and further regression seems imminent in my opinion (note that Stratton was just 1-3 on the road last year.) The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (2-1, 2.53) who gave up one earned run off three hits while walking two and striking out six in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. The hard-throwing right-hander threw 64 of his 91 pitches for strikes, while also generating 12 swinging strikes. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Stratton suggests that he’s in for another long night here against the hard-hitting home side. I look for Foltynewicz to take advantage. Lay the price, play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-18 | Lightning v. Bruins -145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 36 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Bruins (7:00 EST). A 3-1 hole heading back to Tampa would almost assuredly be too big for the Bruins to climb out of. With Boston risking life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes, I look for the desperate home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Tampa comes into this one averaging 3.50 goals on the road, while conceding 2.75. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly is 1-5 with a 2.51 GAA lifetime against the Bruins though. Boston is averaging 3.70 goals at home and conceding just 2.61. Tuukka Rask is 16-8 with a 2.49 GAA lifetime against the Bolts. For arguments sake, let’s call the goaltenders a “wash.” Note though that the Bruins are an amazing 21-6 in their last 27 after scoring two goals or less in their previous contest. Despite the loss last time out, Boston is still 33-8-4 in its last 45 at home against the Lightning. I expect that strong trend to continue in this important game. Lay the price, play on the Bruins. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-18 | A's v. Mariners +113 | 1-4 | Win | 113 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST). I like the home side to find a way to get the job done after its 3-2 setback yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (4-2, 1.03 ERA), who after throwing the season’s first no-hitter against the Red Sox, came back and struck out seven and gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the defending champs on Friday. Manaea has been superb so far this year, but regression does seem imminent in my opinion (note that he was just 6-7 with a 4.50 ERA on the road last season.) The home side counters with Wade LeBlanc (0-0, 4.61) who so far has worked as a long reliever for Seattle. LeBlanc was 5-2 with a 4.50 ERA as a starter for the Pirates last year, including going 5-0 with a 3.99 ERA in all “home” games. I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 8-13 (-5.8 units) against the division this season, while Seattle is 7-5 (+2.2 units) in the same position. Great value on the home side tonight. Play on the Mariners. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-18 | Red Sox -142 v. Rangers | Top | 5-11 | Loss | -142 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (8:05 EST). Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to David Price (2-3, 3.78 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rays on Saturday, giving up six runs while striking out five and walking four on Saturday. Price has struggled a bit of late, but clearly the veteran has the track record and pedigree to return to form here. Note that he was 6-3 with a 3.41 ERA in all “night” games last season. The home side counters with Mike Minor (2-1, 4.33) who earned a win on Friday against the Jays despite giving up four runs off nine hits over six innings. Minor has so far exceed expectations in Texas, but I believe he’ll be in tough here against the hard-hitting Red Sox. Note as well that Boston is 14-5 (+6.1 units) in all “night” games this season, while Texas is just 8-13 (-1 unit) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-18 | Capitals v. Penguins -155 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (9:35 EST). Washington took Game 3 by a score of 4-3 and it now has a 2-1 series lead after dropping Game 1. With their backs against the wall and looking to avoid the dreaded 1-3 hole, I look for the defending champs to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in Game 4. Washington is now 25-20 on the road this year, averaging 3.04 goals and conceding 3.20 in those contests. Goaltender Braden Holtby stopped 19 of 22 shots in Game 3 to improve to 6-2 with a 2.08 GAA in the playoffs. Note that he’s now 8-11 with a 2.90 GAA lifetime against the Penguins. Pittsburgh is now 31-14 at home this season, averaging 3.60 goals and conceding 2.73 in those contests. Sidney Crosby so far has eight goals in the playoffs. Goaltender Matt Murray is now 5-4 with a 2.48 GAA in the playoffs and note that he’s 4-4 with a 3.66 GAA lifetime against the Capitals. I’ll point out that despite the Game 3 loss, the Pens are still 36-16 in their last 52 home games against clubs with winning road records. These teams are very evenly matched across the board, but Pittsburgh has been dominant at home all year and in this almost do-or-die situation, I expect that trend to continue. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Penguins. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 128-110 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Toronto Raptors (6:05 EST). Cleveland has knocked Toronto out of the playoffs each of the last two seasons. The Cavs two took two of three regular season meetings, but after an epic seven game series win against the Pacers in round 1, Cleveland looked poised for a letdown against revenge-minded Toronto in Game 1 of this second round series. That wasn’t the case though as Cleveland would hold on for the two point OT win. The Cavs shot just 43.1 percent from the floor against Indiana, including only 33.2 percent from range. Cleveland was led by LeBron James in Game 1 with 26 points, 11 boards and 13 assists. Kevin Love though struggled again, finishing with seven points and 13 boards. Despite the Game 1 setback, the Raptors are shooting the ball well overall in the postseason at 46.6 percent, while going 39.7 percent from range. DeMar DeRozan led the way with 22 points in a losing cause in Game 1. Big man Jonas Valanciunas posted 21 points and 21 boards. Note that Fred Van Fleet missed a potential game winner in the final seconds of OT. I’ll point out as well that the Cavs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after allowing 100 points or more and just 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU win, while the Raptors are still 5-1 ATS in their last six at home and 5-2 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss. The Cavs accomplished what they wanted in Toronto, winning at least one of the two games. I believe fatigue does finally play a big factor for Cleveland tonight, which I expect to fold up its tents early under the intensity in which the Raptors play with tonight. The desperate Raptors pull away for the comfortable cover once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-18 | Pirates v. Nationals -121 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (1:05 EST). Washington crushed Pittsburgh 9-3 yesterday and I like the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon in this one as well. The visitors turn to Trevor Williams (4-1, 2.29 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off four hits while walking two and striking out two over six innings in a victory over the Cards on Saturday. Regression though seems imminent for Williams after finishing 7-9 with a 4.07 ERA last year. Note that he also sports a pedestrian 23/17 K/W so far this season. The home side counters with Jeremy Hellickson (0-0, 4.11), who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the D-back on Saturday. For arguments sake, let’s call these pitchers a “wash.” Note though that Pittsburgh is just 1-5 in its last six after giving up nine or more runs in its previous outing. Pittsburgh is 17-13 overall this season, while Washington is just 14-16. The Nats have some ground to make up and I look for them to punch another one into the win column here. Play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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05-02-18 | Orioles v. Angels -145 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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05-02-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -125 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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05-02-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 60 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Utah Jazz (8:00 EST). I had a play on Utah in Game 1 and while that play came up short, I expect the Jazz to respond in Game 2. Admittedly the Rockets are most likely better than Oklahoma City, but we all remembered what happened to Utah its Game 1 matchup with the Thunder in the Opening Round. The Jazz laid an egg, but then promptly turned around and dominated in the Game 2 victory and then going on to take the series in six. Utah will be leaving everything it has on the floor tonight as it tries to avoid the 0-2 hole. Utah shot 50 percent in Game 1, but its defense faltered. The Jazz sport the No. 2 defense in the league and suffice it to say, I believe Rudy Gobert and company bounce back in a big way tonight. Houston went 3-0 in the first round at home against the Wolves, but it shot just 45.1 percent in Game 1. The Rockets got a super human performance from James Harden, who finished with 41 points, eight boards and seven assists. I’ll point out though that the Jazz are still 16-7 ATS in their last 23 against good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest and 3-2 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series. It’s hard to say too many negative things against the high-flying Rockets, but note that they’re just 20-21 this year following a victory by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Jazz. Good luck…Larry |
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05-02-18 | Lightning v. Bruins -130 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -130 | 36 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Bruins (7:00 EST). This series is all knotted up at one game apiece as it shifts gears to “Bean Town.” The Lightning were 24-19, but the Bruins were 21-24 at home. For arguments sakes, lets call these goaltenders a “wash.” I base my selections on many different things. Sometimes I base it on strong trends, or scheduling, or revenge. This particular play comes down mainly to some very strong trends which each team has exhibited in this position. The Lightning are a poor 14-17 in their last 31 after playing three consecutive home games. Boston on the other hand is a “lights out” 14-5 (+8.6 units) this season after a loss by two goals or more. On any given night either of these teams could win against the other. It’s that close. But home ice advantage is a crucial factor working in favor of the Bruins this evening and I believe it’ll help turn the tide once the final horn sounds. Play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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05-02-18 | Braves v. Mets -157 | 7-0 | Loss | -157 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 226.5 | Top | 116-121 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* O/U SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the under Pelicans/Warriors (10:30 EST). I had a play on New Orleans in Game 1 and while the Pelicans did look good after one quarter, by half time they were down by 19 points. Golden State would then never look back, shooting the lights out in the 123-101 victory. The total in that one went over the number by a single point. Stephen Curry is expected back in the line-up as well for the defending champs, but regardless of that fact, I believe that Game 2 will be much more of a defensive affair. New Orleans got tricked into playing the Warriors’ style of game and it just wasn’t able to keep pace. The Pelicans got into a shooting match when they should have been trying to work it more into big man Anthony Davis. Sweeping the Blazers did not help New Orleans at all, but with that awkward first game out of the way, I expect to see a much more focused and confident Pelicans side. Give the Warriors credit obviously, as they didn’t look overly impressive in their five-game series victory over the Spurs. New Orleans looked like a deer “caught in the headlights,” but I’m expecting a much better effort this time around. Especially on the defensive end of the court, as clearly New Orleans can ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying Warriors. The situation/conditions point to the under as the correct call in Game 2. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-18 | Blue Jays v. Twins -135 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -135 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* AL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST). I like the hard-hitting home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this one. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Marco Estrada (2-2, 6.00 ERA) who was most recently shelled for five earned runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Red Sox on Thursday. It was the second straight start in which Estrada has given up five earned runs. The 2015/16 season in which he posted a 3.30 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are now firmly in the rear view mirror for Estrada. The home side counters with Kyle Gibson (1-1, 3.33) who comes in off a gem against the Yanks on Thursday, allowing one hit and three walks while striking out ten over six scoreless in the victory. To go along with his respectable 3.33 ERA, Gibson also owns an elite 10.0 K/9. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests than Estrada is going to be in line for another long night, while everything points to another productive outing for the ever improving Gibson. Great price, play on the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6 | 113-112 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 5 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Toronto Raptors (8:00 EST). No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as LeBron James and company come in dog-tired after their gruelling seven game series against the Pacers. Toronto had a more difficult time then expected with Washington, but the Raptors would get the job done in six games, including a crucial victory on the road. The Raptors played hard all year and won the Eastern Conference for this exact moment. The Cavaliers have knocked Toronto out of the Playoffs each of the last two years and they took two of three in the regular season series. Suffice it to say, it’s payback time for Toronto tonight. Simply put, the Cavaliers do not have the depth to hang with Toronto. Cleveland was carried into the second round by a historic performance from LeBron James, but asking The King to duplicate that feat again in Game 1 is asking too much in my opinion. The Raptors have plenty of weapons, their more rested, they have a distinct home court advantage and they play with a massive sense of revenge. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU win, while Toronto is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six at home. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points with confidence. Play on the Raptors. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-18 | Capitals v. Penguins -155 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -155 | 35 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (7:30 EST). I’ve made a play on the Penguins in each of the first two games of this series and I’m 1-1. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the defending champs to bounce back here in front of the home town crowd. Washington turns to Braden Holtby in net for this one and he’s 5-2 with a 1.95 GAA, while the Pens’ Matt Murray is 5-3 with a 2.29 GAA. Washington comes in 24-20 on the road this year, averaging 3.02 goals and conceding 3.20 in those contests. Pittsburgh is 31-13 at home, averaging 3.61 goals and conceding 2.70. I’ll point out as well the Washington has had a hell of time whenever it’s played in “Steel Town,” going just 3-8 in its last 11 trips there. The Pens on the other hand have excelled in this spot, going 37-14 in their last 51 following a loss by three or more goals. Pittsburgh accomplished what it wanted in splitting the first two games of this series, but now that it’s home I expect it to return to form. Everything points to a blowout, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 210 | Top | 101-117 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on the under 76ers/Celtics (8:00 EST). If Boston has any shot in Game 1, or this series, it’s going to need to once again step up on the defensive end. After an exhausting seven game opening round series victory over the Bucks, the last thing the Celtics can afford to do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the well rested and offensively adept 76ers. Joel Embiid averaged 18.7 points, 10.3 boards and 3.0 blocks against the Heat in the 76ers’ 4-1 opening series victory. Rookie Ben Simmons had 18.2 points, 10.6 boards and 9.0 assists. Boston was undefeated at home in its series win over the Bucks, so despite being tired, it also has to be feeling pretty confident tonight. Al Horford had 18.1 points, 8.7 boards and 3.3 assists per game while Jaylen Brown added 17.9 points. Horford is a big body who is going to be able to man up and test Embiid and I think he’ll be a big difference maker once again in this series. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven when playing with three or more days rest, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly eight of its last 12 after three or more consecutive SU home victories. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-18 | Bruins v. Lightning -145 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tampa Bay Lightning (7:00 EST). I had a play on the Lightning in Game 1 and clearly that didn’t work out at all, as Boston would go on to post a lop-sided 6-2 victory. I have to admit, I was completely wrong with judging the Bruins’ energy levels, as they still had plenty left in the tank after their gruelling seven-game series win over the Leafs in the first round. It was Tampa which suffered from rust after dispatching the Devils in five games. The main goal of any visiting team to start a seven game playoff series is to earn the split over the first two games, so as to re-gain the home ice advantage. With that feat accomplished and with fatigue now finally catching up to Boston, I do indeed absolutely believe that the Bruins suffer a classic letdown here. Conversely, with their backs against the wall and needing a victory in the worst way to avoid the 0-2 hole, I look for the Lightning to risk life and limb tonight getting into shooting and passing lanes to try and secure the win. Note as well that Boston is already 2-3 (-2.3 units) in the Playoffs when leading in a series; also 42-43 (-21 units) in its last 45 after a win by two goals or more, while Tampa is 10-3 (+6 units) this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and 21-10 (+6.2 units) after allowing four goals or more. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Lightning. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-18 | Phillies -142 v. Marlins | 4-8 | Loss | -142 | 28 h 49 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:10 EST). The Phillies have been struggling of late, but a date against the lowly Marlins is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jake Arrieta (3-0, 1.82 ERA) who gave up three runs (one earned) off four hits and two walks while striking out two over seven innings in a win over hard-hitting Arizona on Wednesday. After a shaky debut, Arrietta has thrown three straight quality starts. The home side counters with Dan Straily (0-0, 0.00) who threw a bullpen session on Friday and who will make his debut in 2018 here. Straily would finish a pedestrian 10-9 with a 4.26 ERA last year. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have. Straily looked decent in his rehab and he was better at home than on the road last season, but this is obviously a very tough first matchup out of the gates. Recent form displayed by Arrieta though suggests than he’s in store for another big night. Miami stumbles here in my opinion after yesterday’s 3-0 win, while Philadelphia bounces back in this favorable situation. Lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-18 | Brewers -119 v. Reds | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST). I think this one favors the hard-hitting visitors. Milwaukee turns to Jhoulys Chacin (2-1, 3.99 ERA), who gave up two runs off four hits and a walk with three K’s over six innings in a victory over KC on Wednesday. Chacin finished 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA and he’s backed by one of the best bullpens in the league. The home side counters with the volatile Brandon Finnegan (0-2, 8.03) who gave up three runs off seven hits and a walk over five innings while striking out four in a loss to the Braves on Wednesday. To go along with his deplorable ERA, Finnegan also sports an atrocious 2.19 WHIP. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Finnegan is going to be in for another long night here. Chacin isn’t asked to do too much right now, a strategy which has worked with the Brewers’ strong pen. Great price, play on Milwaukee. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-18 | Rays -115 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays. Detroit returns home off a loss at Baltimore, while Tampa fell 4-3 at Boston. Ultimately I feel that the visitors should in fact be a much larger favorite in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Faria (1-1, 6.33 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up four runs off four hits and three walks while striking out five over 4.1 innings against the Orioles on Wednesday, fortunate to earn a no-decision. Faria’s 20/14 K/W isn’t very impressive, but the fact that he threw first pitch strikes to 15 of the 20 batters he faced and induced 14 swings and misses certainly is. Note that Faria was 4-3 with a 2.87 ERA in all “night” gams last year. The home side counters with the volatile Jordan Zimermann (1-0, 7.91) who was shelled for six runs off six hits and a walk over three innings while striking out four against the Pirates on Wednesday. I’ll point out as well that Tampa is already 3-1 (+2 units) on the road this year when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Detroit is a poor 6-7 (-1.7 units) at home and only 41-49 (-10.1 units) at home with a money line of +125 to -125. I’m banking on Faria outlasting his counterpart and for the Rays to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Tampa. Good luck…Larry |
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04-29-18 | Yankees v. Angels -120 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels (8:05 EST). A couple of capable hurlers square off against a couple of hard-hitting line-ups in this one. All things being equal, I absolutely feel that the home field advantage factor will prove to be significant in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the venerable CC Sabathia (1-0, 1.86 ERA), who gave up two hits while walking one and striking out four over six scoreless in a win over Minnesota on Tuesday. The home side counters with Tyler Skaggs (3-1, 2.96) who went seven scoreless against Houston on Monday, giving up four hits and a walk with three K’s. Both teams have had success against southpaws this year, but LA is already 12-7 (+4.7 units) in all night contests thus far. The Yanks are 16-9 overall coming into this one, but note that they’re a poor 41-63 (-22.6 units) on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125. Play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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04-29-18 | Jazz +11 v. Rockets | Top | 96-110 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Utah Jazz (3:35 EST). Am I suggesting to you that you should “sprinkle” a little on the money line? I am not. I simply feel that the league’s No. 1 defense is going to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are tying to lead us to believe (in Game 1 anyways.) Houston advanced by taking out Minnesota in five games, but now James Harden and company have to contend with Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert. Utah was ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 101.6 points per 100 possessions. Utah will be especially motivated here as well after the Rockets swept the season series. It’s a classic battle of strength vs. strength, with Houston leading the league in most offensive categories. The Jazz though behind Donovan Mitchell have found their stride offensively in the playoffs. The temporary loss of Ricky Rubio is significant, but more over the long-term in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that Utah is 26-19 ATS this year against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Houston is just 19-21 ATS this season after a win by ten points or more. The Rockets were the cream of the crop all year, but the Jazz went 30-5 when Gobert returned in late December. As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for the outright upset, but everything points to a much closer than expected battle. Grab the points, play on the Jazz. Good luck…Larry |
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04-29-18 | Penguins +104 v. Capitals | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (3:05 EST). I had a play on the Penguins in Game 1 (my Round 2 GAME OF THE YEAR!) and I think the defending champs offer great value to steal Game 2 as well. Pittsburgh turns to Matt Murray (5-2, 2.17 GAA), while Washington counters with Braden Holtby (4-2, 2.10). Pittsburgh has knocked Washington off in the playoffs each of the last two years and it’ll be well on its way to doing that this season as well with another victory here. Pittsburgh is ranked as the No. 1 offense in the playoffs with an average of 4.43 GPG, while ranked sixth in goals allowed by conceding 2.43. Washington is averaging 3.71 goals in the playoffs and conceding 3.00. This is simply a horrible matchup for the Capitals, who let a golden opportunity slip through their fingers in the late Game 1 collapse. It’s a mental thing and it’s only going to get worse in Game 2 in my opinion. I like Pittsburgh to keep the pressure on and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night once again. Play on the Penguins. Good luck…Larry |
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04-29-18 | Brewers +150 v. Cubs | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (2:20 EST). I like the Brewers to respond here after yesterday’s 3-0 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Davies (2-2, 4.45 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while striking out two over six innings against Kansas City on Tuesday. It was Davies second straight quality outing and while he only struck out two, he did induce 11 groundouts. Davies was 17-9 with a 3.90 ERA last year, including 9-2 with a 2.04 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Tyler Chatwood (1-3, 3.74) who picked up his first win of the season against the Tribe on Tuesday, holding them to one run off four hits with five walks while striking out five of six innings. Chatwood’s ERA remains respectable, but his peripherals are cause for concern, especially considering that he’s already walked 19 batters over 21.2 innings of work. I’ll point out that Milwaukee is 5-2 in its last seven after getting shutout in its previous outing, while Chicago is just 2-7 in its last nine after shutting out its opponent in its previous game. Great value, play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-29-18 | Tigers v. Orioles -148 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Baltimore Orioles (1:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Norris (0-1, 4.85 ERA) who comes in sporting a mixed bag of stats. His 4.91 ERA over 11 innings isn’t great, but his 3.45 FIP suggests he could improve. However, his 11.8 percent walked batter rate is nothing to write home about. Note that Norris was 0-1 with a 6.41 ERA in all day games last season. The home side counters with Kevin Gausman (1-2, 4.66) who comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Indians on Monday, giving up two runs off four hits over eight innings while striking out seven and walking one in an unfortunate loss. Gausman has started to come around after a slow start and his 26/7 K/W suggests that his progression should continue. Also note that Detroit is just 9-12 (-1.3 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Baltimore is still 100-75 (+15.2 units) the last two seasons at home. And as mentioned off the top, I do indeed think that the home field advantage will come into play in this matchup. All things considered, a great price. Play on the Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* ROUND 2 GAME OF THE YEAR is on the New Orleans Pelicans (10:35 EST). The 48-34 New Orleans Pelicans are at Golden State to take on the 58-24 Warriors in Game 1 of their second round series and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I believe the visitors will keep this one competitive until the final moments. New Orleans swept Portland and it comes in averaging 114.5 PPG, while conceding 105.5 in the playoffs. Anthony Davis has been unstoppable to this point and I have a hard time seeing the bigs in Golden State doing much either. Davis is averaging 33 points and 11.8 boards per night. The Warriors are also going to have their hands full with Jrue Holiday, who is averaging 27.8 points and 6.5 assists. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Nikola Mirotic, who is averaging double figures, and guard Rajon Rondo is surging right now as well, averaging 13.3 assists. Note that New Orleans has won five straight on the road. Golden State comes in averaging 105.6 PPG and allowing 96.8 after dispatching the Spurs in five games. Kevin Durant is leading the charge with Stephen Curry sidelined with injury with 28.2 points and 8.6 boards, while Klay Thompson averaged 22.6 points and 2.8 assists. Note that the Warriors have split their last eight in front of the home town crowd. I’ll point out as well that New Orleans has been money in the bank all season for bettors in this spot, going 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 130 points or more in its previous contest and 16-10 ATS against clubs which allow 106 plus points per contest. Conversely this is a position in which the Warriors have struggled mightily in, going just 17-25 ATS at home this season and only 9-10 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Whether Curry plays or not, I still love the Pelicans here. Curry will have some rust if he does come back and I don’t think that the defending champs have an answer for Davis, who could be poised for super star status if he’s able to take over this series and somehow manage another upset. Regardless, the stage is set for a competitive back and forth battle in Game 1. Grab the points, play on the Pelicans. Good luck…Larry |
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04-28-18 | Dodgers v. Giants +120 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 120 | 32 h 42 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:05 EST). Here’s another matchup where I believe that the home field advantage will prove to be significant in the final outcome. The visitors hand the ball to Alex Wood (0-2, 3.72) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Sunday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Wood, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The home side counters with Johnny Cueto (2-0, 0.35) who went six scoreless while striking out seven in a win over the Angels on Sunday. So far over four starts Cueto has given up just one run and to along with his tiny 0.35 ERA, he also sports a ridiculous 0.65 WHIP. Regression is surely imminent for Cueto, but I think the veteran can carry the momentum over for at least one more start. Note as well that LA is just 2-3 (-2.1 units) this year as a road fav between -125 to -175, while San Fran is 4-2 (+2.3 units) at home when the money line is between +125 and -125. Great value, play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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04-28-18 | Yankees v. Angels -112 | 11-1 | Loss | -112 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (9:05 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one. These line-ups are also very even as well. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very really factor in this particular matchup though. The visitors hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (3-2, 4.97 ERA) who gave up one run over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Twins on Monday. It was Tanaka’s best start of the year, as note previous to that he’d been shelled for 12 runs spanning two starts. The home side counters with Garrett Richards (3-0, 3.46) who gave up two earned runs off five hits while walking one and striking out 11 in a victory over San Francisco on Saturday. Richards is trending in the correct direction as well as it was the first time he walked fewer than three batters this season. I’ll point out as well that New York has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors this year already by going just 1-4 (-3.1 units) on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while LA is 12-6 (+5.7 units) in all “night” games. Great price here, play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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04-28-18 | Sharks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 32 h 22 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the under Sharks/Knights (8:05 EST). Las Vegas has been a truly amazing team. Without question the best expansion team in the history of sports. The Golden Knights embarrassed the Sharks 7-0 in Game 1. San Jose will be risking life and limb now trying to slow down Vegas, but the Golden Knights are equally adept at playing a “lock down” style of game as well, as evidenced by their low-scoring four-game series sweep of the LA Kings in the first round. The Sharks are now 22-22 on the road, averaging 2.68 goals and conceding 2.93 in those games. Goaltender Martin Jones is now 4-1 with a 2.05 GAA in the postseason this year after allowing four goals in the Game 1 blowout loss. There’s no reason not to think that Jones won’t be able to bounce back here though. The Golden Knights are 32-12 at home, averaging 3.55 goals and conceding 2.34 in those contests. Netminder Marc-Andre Fleury is 5-0 with a 0.54 GAA in the postseason thus far. I’ll point out as well that San Jose has seen the total go under the number in 18 of 22 this year following a loss by two goals or more, while Las Vegas has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of 28 this season following a victory by two goals or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-28-18 | Tigers v. Orioles -122 | 9-5 | Loss | -122 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Francisco Liriano (2-1, 3.13 ERA) who gave up three runs off two hits and four walks over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against Kansas City on Sunday. Liriano had a strong spring and for the most part that’s carried over into the regular season. I’ll point out though that he was just 1-3 with a 7.79 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Andrew Cashner (1-3, 3.60) who gave up four runs off eight hits and two walks over six innings in a 7-3 loss to Cleveland on Sunday. Cashner’s bright spot in the setback was that he’d post seven K’s. Cashner has to be feeling confident here though as note that he owned a sharp 2.72 ERA in all “home” games last season. I’m not convinced Liriano has taken the next step. Cashner comes in off a sub-par outing, but his track record suggests that he’ll be able to bounce back in front of the home town crowd tonight. In my opinion, great value on this one. Play on Baltimore. Good luck…Larry |
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04-28-18 | Bruins v. Lightning -140 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tampa Bay Lightning (3:05 EST). It’s payback time for the Lightning, as the Bruins took three of the four regular season meetings. Boston comes in completely “gassed” here after its seven game opening series victory over the Leafs. Boston is 23-21 on the road this season, averaging 2.86 goals and conceding 2.61 in those contests. Goaltender Tuukka Rask is 4-3 with a 2.94 GAA in the playoffs thus far and vs. the Lightning he’s gone 16-8 with a 2.49 GAA. Tampa advanced by beating New Jersey in five games. The Lightning are 32-12 at home this season, averaging 3.59 goals and conceding 2.86 in those contests. Netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy is 4-1 with a 2.01 GAA in the playoffs and 1-5 with a 2.51 GAA lifetime against Boston (note that he’s 26-9 with a 2.84 GAA at home.) I’ll point out as well that Boston is just 1-5 in its last six after scoring five or more goals in its previous game, while Tampa Bay is 40-18 in its last 58 when playing on three or more days rest. No need to over think this one. Tampa is rested and motivated after losing the season series. Boston is exhausted. All things considered, this is a great price. Play on the Lightning. Good luck…Larry |
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04-28-18 | Reds v. Twins -142 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Minnesota Twins (2:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano (1-2, 4.78 ERA), who enters off his first win of the year, giving up one earned run off four hits while striking out five and walking one over six innings against the Braves. Romano has looked a bit better of late, but note that his peripherals remain poor (16/12 K/W on the year, while also owning a 4.70 ERA over 107.1 big league innings of work.) The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (1-2, 4.50) who gave up five runs off five hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Yanks on Monday, also striking out five. It’s been a mixed bag for Odorizzi so far this season, looking quite good at times and pretty poor in others. It’s worthy to note though that Odorizzi was dominant in all day games last year by going 4-1 with a 3.52 ERA. Also note that Cincinnati is just 2-11 (-8.8 units) on the road this year, while Minnesota is 4-2 (+2.4 units) at home. I think Odorizzi settles down and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-18 | Thunder +5.5 v. Jazz | Top | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 37 h 15 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the OKC Thunder (10:35 EST). I had a play on the Thunder in Game 5 and they’d storm from behind to score the 107-99 victory. With its back against the wall once again, I think that Oklahoma City will at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. OKC had to erased a 25 point deficit and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. While the Thunder only shot 43 percent, they’d go on to hit a decent 9 of 21 from range. Russell Westbrook exploded for 45 points and 15 boards, while Paul George added 34 points and eight boards. The Thunder come in averaging 107.9 PPG and conceding 104.4. The Jazz average 104.1 PPG and they concede 99.8. Donovan Mitchell had 23 points in Game 5, going just 1 of 7 from range. Overall Mitchell is having a great series, but the Thunder played the rookie effectively in Game 5. I think the pressure is on Utah here. The Jazz absolutely collapsed in Game 5 and with that defeat still fresh on their minds, another outright upset is definitely not out of the question tonight either. That said, in a game which I foresee coming down to whichever one of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can. Play on the Thunder. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-18 | Mets -151 v. Padres | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Mets (10:10 EST). Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Mets hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (2-0, 2.53 ERA) who had to settle for a no-decision after going seven scoreless and striking out ten against the Braves on Saturday. DeGrom now sports an elite 40/8 K/W over 32 innings of work and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to maintain his focus here. The home side counters with the volatile Clayton Richards (1-2, 5.67) who gave up three runs off five hits over five innings in a loss to Arizona on Saturday. Richards has now posted four straight outings of going exactly five innings and allowing four or more earned runs. Note that New york is already 4-1 (+3.4 units) this year against southpaws, while San Diego is just 5-11 (-3.3 units) against right-handed starters. This line could easily be a lot larger considering the massive talent discrepancy on the mound. Great value, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-18 | Jets v. Predators -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Nashville Predators (8:00 EST). Nashville took three of the four regular season meetings between the clubs and I think that dominance is carried over into Game 1. If Winnipeg has had one clear weakness this season, it’s been its play on the road where it’s just 21-22, averaging 2.81 goals and conceding 2.81 in those contests. Connor Hellebuyck gets the nod in net tonight for the visitors and he’s so far 4-1 with a 1.93 GAA in the playoffs. Overall he’s 6-5 with a 3.20 GAA lifetime against the Predators though. Nashville is 30-14 at home, averaging 3.39 goals and conceding 2.55. Goaltender Pekka Rinne is 4-2 in the playoffs and overall he’s 15-4 with a 2.41 GAA lifetime against the Jets. Nashville has already beaten Winnipeg three out of four times this season and with so much on the line to open this second round series, I absolutely believe that the Predators will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in Game 1. The clincher though is the matchup in net. Rinne has dominated the Jets throughout his career, while Hellebuyck has struggled whenever he’s faced the Predators. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is a great price. Play on Nashville. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers -1 | 87-121 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indiana Pacers (8:05 EST). It’s another do-or-die situation after Cleveland took a 3-2 series lead with a LeBron James’ buzzer-beater in Game 5. James made a block on Pacers star Victor Oladipo at the end of the game, a play which was later deemed to be a goaltend. And after that missed/flubbed call, James would go on to hit the winning shot with time winding off the clock. Kyle Korver was a bright spot as well with 19 points for Cleveland. Oladipo looked great in Game 1, but he’s since dropped off. However, I think he’ll respond with another big game here as he looks for some retribution after the crucial missed call in Game 5: “I got a step on him and I felt I even got grabbed,” Oladipo said afterwards. “It hit the backboard and he blocked it. It was a goaltend. It’s hard to even speak on it. That layup is huge.” Note as well that Indiana is 21-13 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and 24-18 ATS at home overall, while Cleveland is just 20-22 ATS on the road. James has been incredible, but fatigue becomes a factor here I think. I’m banking on the home side bouncing back and pushing this series to a decisive Game 7. Play on the Pacers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-18 | Raptors v. Wizards -1.5 | 102-92 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 46 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (7:00 EST). It’s do or die for the Wizards on Friday night. Toronto took Game 5, 108-98 at home on Wednesday. The Raptors achilles heel over the years though has been their play on the road and I believe it’s going to come back to haunt them again this evening. DeMar DeRozan had 32 points in the Game 5 victory for Toronto, while Kyle Lowry added 17 points and 10 assists. The Raptors average 111.7 PPG and they concede 103.9. The Wizards average 106.6 PPG and they concede 106. Clearly the margin for error is pretty slim most nights for Washington. But desperation and home court advantage can’t be overlooked. John Wall was a bright spot in a losing cause in Game 5 with 26 points, nine boards and nine assists. I’ll point out as well that Toronto is still just 2-6 ATS in its last eight when leading in a playoff series, while Washington is 9-4 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-18 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -140 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -140 | 29 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST). Arizona comes in off an 8-2 win at Philadelphia yesterday afternoon, while Washington enters off a days rest. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (3-1, 3.09 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off six hits while striking out eight over 5.1 innings in a victory over the Pirates on Saturday. In his previous outing Godley had been shelled for five earned runs over four innings. Godley had a breakout season in 2017 and so far he’s carried that momentum over into 2018. I’ve played on Godley several times already this year, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. The home side counters with co-ace Stephen Strasburg (2-2, 2.97) who gave up two earned runs off five hits while walking two and striking out ten over seven innings in a no-decision in his most recent action. Strasburg has already given up six home runs this year (after allowing 13 in 2017), but his peripherals (2.97 ERA and 0.99 WHIP) have him in line for another productive season. Note that Strasburg was particularly effective at home last year by going 7-2 with a 2.75 ERA. A couple of competent hurlers squaring off in this opener, but I’m giving the nod to the rested Nationals and to Strasburg. Arizona is just 122-130 (-11.6 units) against right-handed starters the last two seasons and I think Washington’s flame-thrower comes out on top here. Lay the price, play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-18 | Braves +152 v. Phillies | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:05 EST). I had a play on Atlanta in its 7-4 win over Cincinnati yesterday afternoon and I think that the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in Game 1 of this three game set in Philadelphia on Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (1-1, 4.00 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision agains the hard-hitting Mets on Saturday, going seven scoreless and allowing just four hits and a walk while striking out six. Teheran was rocked in his season debut, but the hard-throwing right-hander has now delivered three straight quality starts and I’m expecting the veteran to carry that momentum over tonight. The home side counters with Aaron Nola (2-1, 2.30), who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings while striking out nine in a win over the light-hitting Pirates on Saturday. Hard to say anything negative about Nola, but I’ll point out that the Braves are still just 4-7 (-4.3 units) against the division this season. The Braves on the other hand are 9-6 (+4.8 units) against division foes and once again, I think they’re being undervalued in this particular spot. Great value, play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -145 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* NL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST). The Brewers come in off a two-game inter league series sweep of the Royals and I think they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. The Cubs took two of three from Colorado over the weekend and then split a two-game series with the Tribe, falling 4-1 yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (2-1, 3.25 ERA), who gave up three earned runs off five hits over 5.1 innings in a win over the light-hitting Marlins last Thursday. Anderson has so far been “on point” this season, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 4.09) who gave up three earned runs off five hits, while walking none and striking out six in a 16-5 victory over the Rockies on Friday. Hendricks owns a strong 19/7 K/W this year and I think he’ll build off this latest effort. I do indeed believe that the Cubs offer great value at home here, as note that they’re already 9-6 against clubs with winning records this season (Brewers just 1-2 in the same position.) Lay the price, play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Milwaukee Bucks (8:05 EST). Home court advantage. Home ice advantage. Home field advantage. Sometimes it means a lot and other times it’s an angle which can be completely blown out of proportion. Teams play all year long though to gain the upper hand in the Playoffs and so far in this series, the home floor advantage has meant everything. With their backs against the wall, I look for the Bucks to respond this evening and to push this Opening Round series to a decisive Game 7 on Saturday. Boston comes in averaging 103.8 PPG in the playoffs, while allowing 104. Jaylen Brown is averaging 21.8 points and 5.4 boards, while Al Horford is contributing 18.2 points and 8.6 boards. Note though that the Celtics have lost five straight on the road. Milwaukee is averaging 104 points and cone ding 103.8. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 25.4 points and 8.8 rebounds while Khris Middleton is averaging 25 points and 3.6 assists. Note that the Bucks have won five of their last six in front of the home town crowd. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bucks. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-18 | Penguins +114 v. Capitals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 114 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* ROUND 2 GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (7:05 EST). Pittsburgh has knocked off Washington each of the last two years in the Playoffs and I believe the defending champs are going to take Game 1 as well. The Penguins advanced by dispatching the Flyers in six games. In their two losses the Pens totalled just three goals, but in their four victories they posted 25. Sidney Crosby led the way offensively with six goals. Pittsburgh goaltender Matt Murray went 4-2 with a 2.20 GAA in the first round. Murray is now 26-11 with a 1.99 GAA lifetime in the postseason. The Penguins enter ranked as the No. 1 offense so far in the playoffs with 4.67 GPG, while ranked seventh defensively in conceding 2.50. The Capitals advanced by beating the Blue Jackets in six games. Washington lost the first two games of that series, but then proceeded to win four straight. The Capitals are 29-15 at home, averaging 3.34 goals and conceding 2.61. Washington goaltender Braden Holtby is 4-1 with a 1.92 GAA in the Playoffs thus far. It’s hard to say anything negative about either of these teams. The Penguins though have just had the Capitals number over the last five years and I think they’re going to find a way to get the job done here as well. After four straight victories, I think Washington finally suffers a small letdown in the opener of this second round series. Play on the Penguins. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-18 | Braves -118 v. Reds | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Daytime Dominator on the Atlanta Braves (12:35 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (1-1, 3.74 ERA), who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Mets on Friday, giving up two earned runs over six innings while striking out five. Newcomb threw 61 of his 105 pitches for strikes and he now owns an 11.2 K/9. The home side counters with the volatile Homer Bailey (0-3, 3.68) who gave up three runs off seven hits and two walks over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against the Cards on Saturday. Bailey has now served up four homers on the year already, which falls in line with his poor season last year where he went a poor 1-6 with a 7.90 ERA at home. Bailey’s shown nothing special this season and until he does, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe he’ll suddenly “flip a switch” and start turning things around this afternoon. Newcomb on the other hand has gotten consistently better with each start and I believe that progression continues on Thursday. All things considered I think this is a very fair price. Play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 35 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (9:35 EST). No need to overthink this one in my opinion. With their backs against the wall, I look for the Thunder to deliver the goods in this do or die situation. OKC looked in control after its 116-108 Game 1 victory, but Utah has stormed back to take three straight behind some lock down defense against Thunder star Russell Westbrook. The home side though will be throwing everything it has at the Jazz tonight and I think that’s going to be more than enough to send this one back to Utah for a Game 6. Donovan Mitchell had 33 points in the latest victory, while Joe Ingles finished with 20 points for the Jazz. OKC is shooting just 43.6 percent in this series, including just 37.3 percent from range. Paul George had 32 points, while Westbrook had 23 points and 14 boards in the Game 4 setback. The Thunder though are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more consecutive losses, while the Jazz are just 4-6 ATS in their last ten when playing the role of underdog. Winning can lead to complacency and desperation leads to motivation. With the knowledge that they can still comfortably wrap up this series in Game 6 at home, I think the Jazz finally have a letdown here against this desperate Thunder side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-25-18 | #Brewers v. #Royals +120 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 41 m | Show | |
INCORRECT PITCHERS |
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04-25-18 | Mets v. Cardinals -140 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz (1-1, 4.42 ERA), who was 2-7 with a 6.08 ERA last year. Matz most recently gave up three runs off three hits and a walk over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Nationals on Wednesday. Matz continues to struggle for the most part, as so far he’s been unable to go beyond five innings in all four of his starts. The home side counters with Michael Wacha (3-1, 4.22) who gave up one run off six hits with three K’s and one walk over 6.2 innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Friday. Wacha was 12-9 with a 4.13 ERA last year, but he was particularly effective at home by going 8-4 with a very respectable 3.41 ERA. Both teams have gotten out to good starts to the 2018 campaign, but for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Matz has another difficult night in store for him. All things considered, I feel this is a very fair price. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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04-25-18 | Brewers v. Royals +120 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST). I like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat to score the minor upset here. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin (1-1, 4.18 ERA) who went six scoreless to earn a victory over the light-hitting Marlins on Friday, striking out five and walking three. To go along with his unimpressive 4.18 ERA, Chacin also owns a poor 1.73 WHIP with a .289 batting average. The home side counters with Jason Hammel (0-1, 3.20) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Tigers on Friday, allowing two runs off five hits with four K’s over nine innings. After a “dud” in his season debut, Hammel has been “lights out” of late, giving up a total of just four runs off 16 hits over 20.1 innings of work. Chacin looked decent in his last start, but recent form displayed by these two veterans suggests that Hammel is poised for another big night. I’m giving Hammel the firm nod in this matchup. All things considered a great price, play on the Royals. Good luck…Larry |
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04-25-18 | Wizards v. Raptors -7 | Top | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 55 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Toronto Raptors (7:05 EST). So far home court advantage has played a big part in this series and suffice it to say, I’m fully expecting that trend to carry over here. So far the Wizards have shot 49.4 percent in this series, including 42.2 percent from range. Washington was down 11 at the half, but outscored Toronto 66-47 in the second of Game 4 for the victory. Bradley Beal had 31 points, while John Wall added 27 points, 14 assists and four steals. Toronto had its chances in Game 4, but it failed to deliver the goods. Toronto’s achilles heel over the last five years has been its play on the road in the postseason. So far the Raptors are hitting 48.3 percent in this series, including 43.2 percent from range. DeMar DeRozan was a bright spot in the latest setback with 35 points, while Kyle Lowry added 19. I’ll point out though that Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory and 0-7 ATS in its last seven following an ATS win, while Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Playing in Toronto is a difficult task for any team, but even more so in the Playoffs. After back-to-back lacklustre performance on the road, everything points to a bounce back blowout for the home side in Game 5. Lay the points, play on the Raptors. Good luck…Larry |
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04-25-18 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -110 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). I had a play on Philadelphia yesterday and it came up short. With its ace on the mound tonight though, I like the home side to find a way to get the job done this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (2-1, 4.13 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits with two K’s and a walk over seven innings in a win over the Giants on Thursday. It was Greinke’s best start of the year, having posted a 5.29 ERA over three starts previous. Greinke though for the most part has looked solid this year, sporting a sparkling 23/2 K/W through his first 24 innings of work. The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (2-0, 2.04) who gave up one hit and walked two while striking out ten over seven scoreless in a victory over the Pirates on Thursday. Arrieta enters this one on top form, with his fastball averaging 93 MPH right now, as fast as it’s ever been. Greinke was 17-7 with a 3.20 ERA last year, but his achilles heel was his play on the road, just 4-6 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA. After yesterday’s lacklustre performance, I like Arrieta to continue his dominance at home and get the better of his counterpart. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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04-25-18 | Mariners -145 v. White Sox | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Seattle Mariners (2:10 EST). I think Felix Hernandez and the visiting Mariners build off yesterday’s 1-0 victory. Fernandez (2-2, 5.06 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off four hits and two walks while striking out five over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Rangers on Friday. Hernandez has shown flashes of brilliance, but owns a pedestrian 5.06 ERA and 20/10 K/W over 26.2 innings of work thus far. The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (1-2, 6.17) who was rocked for seven runs off eight hits in a shutout loss to Houston on Friday. So far Shields has been shelled for 27 hits over 23.1 innings of work, including giving up 13 walks, compared to just 11 K’s. I’ll point out though that Seattle is 22-9 (+9.7 units) in its last 31 as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Chicago is just 2-5 (-1.7 units) already this season against teams with winning records. Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I’m still going to give Hernandez the slight nod here. The Mariners also get the slight nod at the plate. Hernandez is the correct call in my opinion. While “The King” has been far from perfect, as mentioned off the top he’s shown flashes of his former self and he’s on the cusp of a big game. The same can not be said of Shields though, he looks worse every time he heads out to the hill. This line could easily be larger, play on the Mariners. Good luck…Larry |
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04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 205 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Situational Stunner is the under Bucks/Celtics (7:05 EST). So far the home team has come out on top in each of the first four contests. Without the offensive depth to hang with Milwaukee though, I expect the Celtics to try and slow the pace of Game 5 down. Milwaukee has so far shot 54.2 percent in this series, including 43.6 percent from range. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks actually trailed in the final minute of Game 4, before the versatile super star secured the win with a last second tip-in. In all he’d finish with 27 points, seven boards and five assists. Note though that Eric Bledsoe struggled again with nine points and five assists. Boston is down a couple of key pieces, but it’s defensive core remains in tact. The Celtics have shot just 44.2 percent from the floor so far in this series. Jaylen Brown was a bright spot in a losing cause with 34 points and eight boards, while Jayson Tatum added 21 points. So far all four games of this series have gone “over” the number. But I firmly believe that Game 5 sets up as a classic defensive affair. Fatigue is also an issue at this point of the Opening Round series. The O/U ATS trends do not support this play at all, as these two teams have played to a surprising amount of “overs” of late and overall this season. However, this play is not based on past trends, it’s based on the here and now and the overall situation. This one has defensive battle written all over it. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-24-18 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -105 | 8-4 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). It’s Robbie Ray of the first place Diamondbacks against Vince Velasquez of the Phillies. Both starters have done decently to start the season, but Velasquez comes in on top form. Ray has posted two quality starts out of four tries so far this season. Ray gave up six runs over 11.2 innings spanning two starts against the Phillies last year. One other player to keep your eyes on today for the visitors is slugger David Peralta, who has seven hits and three RBI’s over his last six games. Overall the Diamondbacks are averaging 4.52 runs per game, while posting a combined 2.75 ERA, which is good for third overall. Velasquez has posted three straight quality starts and owns a 3.80 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 21.1 innings of work. Velasquez has had previous success against the Diamondbacks as well, allowing one run over 8.2 innings. Note that Velasquez has 24 K’s and just one home run given up so far this season. Philadelphia slugger Odubel Herrera has a .329 average, with one homer and eight RBI’s. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this matchup, I have to give the nod to Velasquez. Ray has shown flashes of last year’s career campaign, but so far the southpaw has been inconsistent this season. The Phillies are getting production at the plate right now as well. All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is great line value. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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04-24-18 | Twins +130 v. Yankees | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (6:35 EST). I had a play on Minnesota yesterday and it came up short, but I like the visitors to bounce back in the second game of this four-game set. Minnesota was swept over the weekend by the Rays, so there’s no question that the Twins will be eager to get back into the winners circle tonight. The Twins turn to ace Jose Berrios (2-1, 1.63 ERA) who has so far posted a 29/1 K/W over 27.2 innings of work. Berrios enters off an unfortunate no-decision against the hard-hitting Indians on Wednesday, going seven scoreless, giving up three hits, no walks and posting five K’s. Berrios is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA, with six walks and nine K’s over ten innings in his career against the Yanks. The home side took three of four from Toronto over the weekend and also the first game of this series, The home side hands the ball to the venerable CC Sabathia (0-0, 2.70), who has posted three walks and eight K’s over 13.1 innings of work. In his last start against the Jays he’d receive a no-decision after allowing two runs off four hits over 4.1 innings. Sabathia is 19-9 with a 3.16 ERA lifetime against Minnesota. I’ll point out though that Minnesota is 5-1 in its last six against southpaws, while New York is just 6-7 (-4.7 units) this season against right-handed starters. Enough is enough for the Twins. With their ace on the mound, look for the visitors to score the minor upset here. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-18 | Thunder +5.5 v. Jazz | Top | 96-113 | Loss | -102 | 37 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (10:35 EST). Oklahoma City is on the ropes, as a loss tonight would make it 3-1 for Utah. The Thunder will be leaving everything they have on the floor though and while I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for this one to be decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. The Thunder had only 49 points in the second half of Game 3’s 115-102 setback. OKC shot 47.4 percent from the floor and it was 14 of 28 from range, but it still wasn’t enough. Paul George was a bright spot with 23 points. Star Russell Westbrook was a no-show for a second-straight game, so he’ll clearly be extra motivated this evening. OKC averages 107.9 PPG and it concedes 104.4. Utah averages 104.1 PPG and it concedes 99.8. The Jazz shot an unreal 52.5 percent in Game 3 and won the rebound battle 48-33. Ricky Rubio had a huge night with 26 points, 11 boards and ten assists. Rookie Donovan Mitchell continued his strong campaign with 22 points. The Thunder have struggled for bettors overall this year, but OKC has done decently as the underdog this season (10-7 ATS). The Jazz on the other hand are still just 12-19 ATS in their last 31 after scoring 115 points or more in their previous contest. I can’t see Westbrook laying an egg three games in a row. I also have a hard time seeing Rubio matching his epic Game 2 performance (think Dwayne Wade last week, laying a complete egg in Game 3 after his legendary Game 2 victory over the 76ers in Philadelphia.) OKC has had success from range and combined with the massive sense of desperation it’ll be playing with, everything does indeed point to the comfortable cover. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-18 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets -106 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -106 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Columbus Blue Jackets (7:30 EST). Washington won Game 5 by a score of 4-3 in OT to snag a 3-2 series lead. Columbus will be risking life and limb to force a Game 7 and in this case, I don’t think that home ice can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Capitals are 23-20 on the road this year and they’ve averaged 2.95 goals and conceded 3.21 in this contests. Goaltender Braden Holtby is now 3-1 with a 1.67 GAA in this series. Holtby hasn’t been on his best on the road this season though, going 12-11 with a 3.90 GAA. The Blue Jackets are 26-17 at home, averaging 2.70 goals and conceding 2.42 in those contests. Netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is 2-3 with a 2.85 GAA in this series. Overall he’d go 20-13 with a 2.18 GAA at home this season though and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to bounce back here. Washington would love nothing more than to close this series out, but Columbus has proven to be an elite team at home all season. I simply can’t see the Capitals getting the job done tonight. Washington has won three straight, but winning can lead to complacency. And desperation leads to motivation for Columbus. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Blue Jackets. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-18 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs +114 | 1-3 | Win | 114 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:05 EST). Toronto hung on for a 4-3 win in Boston in Game 5 and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done on home ice as well and push this series to a conclusive Game 7. Boston had a 3-1 series lead, but it failed to the job done last time out. David Backes would score his second of the series in a losing cause. The Bruins are 23-20 on the road this year, averaging 2.91 goals and conceding 2.60 in those contests. Goaltender Tuukka Rask gave up four goals on 13 shots in Game 5 before getting yanked. Rask is 13-10 with a 2.51 GAA on the road this year. The Leafs are 30-13 at home, averaging 3.30 goals and conceding 2.65 in those contests. Frederik Andersen stopped 42 of 45 shots that he faced to improve to 2-2 with a 3.86 GAA so far in this playoffs. Andersen has to be feeling confident here though as he’d finish 23-10 with a 2.64 GAA at home. Also note that Boston is just 1-5 in its last six on the road, while Toronto is 17-5 in its last 22 when playing on one days rest and 5-1 in its last six home games against a club with a winning road record. The Leafs have won five of the last six at home in this series and with so much on the line, I’m expecting that strong trend to continue here. Pack your backs for Game 7! Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-18 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Bruins/Leafs (7:00 EST). Toronto hung on for a 4-3 win in Boston in Game 5 and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done on home ice as well and push this series to a conclusive Game 7. I’m also expecting these competent goalkeepers to be the main story line in tomorrow’s summaries. Boston had a 3-1 series lead, but it failed to the job done last time out. David Backes would score his second of the series in a losing cause. The Bruins are 23-20 on the road this year, averaging 2.91 goals and conceding 2.60 in those contests. Goaltender Tuukka Rask gave up four goals on 13 shots in Game 5 before getting yanked. Rask is 13-10 with a 2.51 GAA on the road this year. The Leafs are 30-13 at home, averaging 3.30 goals and conceding 2.65 in those contests. Frederik Andersen stopped 42 of 45 shots that he faced to improve to 2-2 with a 3.86 GAA so far in this playoffs. Andersen has to be feeling confident here though as he’d finish 23-10 with a 2.64 GAA at home. Additionally I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 24 this year after allowing four goals or more, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven home games when the total in the contest is set at 6 or higher. With so much on the line for each side and with neither wanting to make any major mistakes, everything points to a classic goaltenders battle in Game 6. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-18 | Twins +187 v. Yankees | 1-14 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Minnesota Twins (7:05 EST). Minnesota looks to bounce back here after falling 8-6 in Tampa yesterday. New York comes in off a 5-1 win over Toronto. I think that Jake Odorizzi (1-1, 3.38 ERA) has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup. Odorizzi comes in off an outing to forget, giving up four runs off six hits with six K’s and a a walk over five innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Indians on Tuesday. It was his worst start thus far for his new club, but there’s no reason not to think that he won’t bounce back here (note that Odorizzi was 5-2 with a 3.95 ERA on the road last season.) The home side counters with Masahiro Tanaka (2-2, 6.45) who was shelled for seven runs off eight hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the light-hitting Marlins on Tuesday. Tanaka has been rocked for 12 earned runs over his last ten innings of work. Note that Minnesota is already 5-3 (+3.1 units) this season against clubs with winning records, while New York is just 2-3 (-1.5 units) in the same position. Despite coming off his worst performance of the year, I’m still giving Odorizzi the big nod in this matchup. Tanaka is clearly struggling and that doesn’t bode well facing this dangerous Twins line-up. With Odorizzi out duelling his counterpart, the value absolutely swings to the dog in this situation. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers OVER 204.5 | Top | 104-100 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* O/U ODDDSMAKERS ERROR is on the over Cavs/Pacers (8:35 EST). This is a big game. Indiana will be trying desperately to take a 3-1 series lead, while the Cavaliers will be laying everything on the line in an attempt even it up. The Cavaliers looked great after the first half of Game 3, but the Pacers turned up the Heat on the defensive end and somehow managed the 92-90 victory. LeBron James was great in a losing cause with 28 points and 12 boards, but the rest of his team will be extra motivated here after letting The King down once again. Note that the Cavs average 110.9 PPG in the regular season and conceded 109.9. Indiana has to be feeling confident. The Pacers are a versatile team and I think they can adjust and play any style. Note that Indiana finished by averaging 105.6 points and conceding 104.2 in the regular season. I’ll point out as well that the Cavs have seen the total go over over the number in eight of 12 already this year after playing to three or more consecutive unders and in 22 of 35 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Indiana has seen the total go over the posted number in four of its last six after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest. With the visitors pushing the pace from start to finish and the home side forced to match, all signs point to this one sailing above the number as it comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-18 | Predators v. Avalanche +165 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Colorado Avalanche (7:05 EST). I base my picks on many different things. For me this one comes down to common sense and some extremely strong ATS stats/trends. Not many gave the Avs much of a chance in this series, yet Colorado is hanging around. In fact I think that Colorado firmly has the momentum in its favor after its 2-1 victory in Nashville in Game 5. The Avs have been competitive in this series, more so as it’s progressed. The Predators would love nothing more than to finish this series right here and now, but with the knowledge of having one more shot at wrapping things up on home ice still to come, the visitors could also in some small way be caught complacent/looking ahead here. Note as well that the Predators are still just 2-6 (-4.7 units) in their last eight when leading in a playoff series, while Colorado is 7-2 (+4.7 units) in its last nine after holding its opponent to one goal or less in its previous outing. Great value on the hungrier home side. Play on the Avs. Good luck…Larry |
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