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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-05-18 | Mets v. Nationals -145 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -145 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (1:05 EST). The Nationals come in off a 7-1 loss at Atlanta yesterday afternoon, but I think they’ll bounce back in fine fashion in front of the home town crowd here. The visitors were also in action against Philadelphia on Wednesday afternoon and they hand the ball to Jacob DeGrom (1-0, 1.59 ERA), who gave up one earned run off four hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in a season opening win over the Cards on Saturday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about DeGrom, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. Washington counters with Stephen Strasburg (1-0, 1.42) who posted a dominant win in his debut as well, giving up three runs and striking out seven over 6.1 innings over the Reds. Note that Strasburg was 7-3 with a 2.06 ERA in all “day” games last year. I’ll point out that the Nationals are 6-1 (+4.1 units) in their last seven after scoring one run or less in their previous outing, while the Mets are only 1-4 (-3.2 units) in their last five as a road dog in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-18 | Rangers v. A's -142 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (10:05 EST). The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Doug Fister (1-0, 1.80 ERA), who was 5-9 with a 4.88 ERA last year for Boston, but who picked up a win in his Rangers debut, giving up one earned run off four hits over five innings while striking out three in the eventual 5-1 victory over Houston on Friday. Note that Fister was just 2-2 with a 4.79 ERA on the road last year and only 4-5 with a 5.06 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Sean Manaea (0-0, 1.17), who gave up one run while striking out seven over 7.2 innings in an unfortunate setback to the Angels on Friday. It’s hard to trust Manaea completely, but he had a strong spring and his debut was also solid. Note that he was 6-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home last year. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and despite his decent performance in his Opener, Fister has been consistently inconsistent throughout his career and I think that trend carries over here. Manaea was a hard-luck loser in his Opener, but I look for the hard-throwing southpaw to out duel his counterpart today and punch one into the win column. Lay the price, play on the A’s. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-18 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 206.5 | Top | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the under Celtics/Raptors (8:00 EST). Both teams were in action last night and as such, I absolutely believe they’ll each come in with “heavy legs” here. Boston enters off a 106-102 loss at Milwaukee, while Toronto fell 112-106 in Cleveland. These teams played on Saturday night and Boston scored the 110-99 victory at home and suffice it to say, I think we’re going to witness a much more defensive battle this evening between these two Eastern Conference powerhouses. The Celtics average 104.2 PPG and they concede 100.1. Kyrie Irving is out of the line-up until the playoffs now after a minor surgery, so it’s Al Horford shouldering the nightly load with 12.8 points, 7.4 boards and 4.8 assists per night. The Raptors average 112.3 points and they concede 104.5. DeMar DeRozan leads the way with 23.4 points and 5.2 assists per night, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.5 points, 5.6 boards and 6.9 assists per game. I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 against the division already this year, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven against divisional opponents. Fatigue is a major factor at this time of year. The last thing the undermanned Celtics can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with the high-flying Raptors. Everything points to a defensive affair, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 9.5 | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Cards/Brewers (7:40 EST). I had a play on the Brewers yesterday and I obviously feel pretty fortunate after they came from behind late to win 5-4. Game 1 of this series was also high-scoring, with the Cards winning 8-4. Wednesday’s matchup points to more of a “duel” in my opinion though. The visitors hand the ball to Carlost Martinez (0-1, 8.31 ERA) who gave up four earned runs off four hits and six walks over 4.1 innings while striking out five in a losing cause to the Mets on Thursday. Martinez was better at home than on the road last year, but note that he was 9-6 with a 3.63 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (0-0, 10.80 ERA), who gave up four runs off seven hits and two walks over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Friars on Friday. Chacin started slowly last year as well, but closed by going 13-10 with a 3.89 ERA for San Diego and I think he’ll have his emotions under control much better this evening, than he did in his debut. Two veteran hurlers going head-to-head here and each came out and laid an egg in their respective Openers. I think we’ll see these two settle down in their second outings though and I’m expecting them to battle deep into the latter frames tonight. As such, I look for this one stay below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-18 | Senators +111 v. Sabres | Top | 4-2 | Win | 111 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Ottawa Senators (7:30 EST). A couple of cellar dwellers go head-to-head in this one and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Senators. Ottawa is off a 6-5 home loss to Winnipeg, while Buffalo fell 5-2 at Toronto in its latest action. Ottawa averages 2.70 GPG and it concedes 3.46. Netminder Mike Condon is just 5-22 with a 3.25 GAA, including 3-15 with a 2.96 GAA on the road this season. Buffalo averages 2.38 GPG and it concedes 3.33. Goaltender Chad Johnson is 10-17 with a 3.41 GAA on the year, including just 4-10 with a 3.98 GAA at home. Both teams have just been downright horrible this year, which is why I’ll point out that Ottawa is 7-2 (+6.8 units) in its last nine after a loss in which it scored five goals or more in, while Buffalo is 13-25 (-10.4 units) this season against clubs with losing records. Play on Ottawa. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-18 | Twins v. Pirates -109 | 7-3 | Loss | -109 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (6:05 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi, who went six scoreless in a no-decision against the Orioles on Thursday, giving up two hits and two walks in the eventual no-decision. It was a decent debut for Odorizzi’s new team. The home side counters with ace Ivan Nova (0-0, 3.60), who gave up two runs off six hits and three walks, while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Friday. A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Nova though, who was 8-2 with a 2.80 ERA at PNC Park in 2017. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 77-106 (-19.5 units) in its last 183 following a loss, while Pittsburgh is 83-71 (+11.4 units) in its last 154 following a victory. I’m banking on home field playing a major factor in the outcome of this one. Play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-18 | Phillies v. Mets -154 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Mets (1:10 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola (0-0, 1.69 ERA) who gave up one earned run off five hits while striking out three over 5.1 innings against the Braves on Thursday. Nola was lifted early from that one which had many scratching their heads, leaving some to believe that first year manager Gabe Kapler is likely putting a cap on Nola’s pitch count this year. The home side counters with Noah Syndergaard (1-0, 6.00), who earned a win in his season debut against the Cards despite giving up four runs off six hits over six innings of work, also going on to strike out ten. Note that Syndergaard was particularly effective at home last year as well by posting a 1.71 ERA. Nola wasn’t really tested in his opener, but I think he will be here. Syndergaard survived against the hard-hitting Cardinals, but faces a much weaker offense this time around. All things considered, I think his price could in fact be a lot larger. Great price, play on Syndergaard and the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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04-03-18 | Indians v. Angels OVER 8 | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Indians/Angels (10:05 EST). These teams combined for just six runs in yesterday’s 6-0 victory for the Indians, but I think we’ll see more of a “slugfest” on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Josh Tomlin, who was 10-9 with a 4.98 ERA in 2017. In his final tune up he’d give up three earned runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings against the Giants. Tomlin finished spring with an unimpressive 6.23 ERA and note that he was particularly pedestrian in this spot last year by posting a 4.57 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Garrett Richards (0-0, 7.20), who gave up four earned runs off seven hits with three walks over five innings in a loss to the A’s on Thursday. Recent form is often the best indicator we have when trying to properly judge a staring pitcher and in this case, both of these hurlers come in struggling. In fact, I expect each to get the hook early and as such, I look for this one to comfortably eclipse the posted total sooner rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-03-18 | Orioles +229 v. Astros | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (8:10 EST). Clearly Justin Verlander is a better pitcher than Dylan Bundy. Verlander rejuvenated his career with the championship run with the Astros last year, but despite all of that I think he’s vastly over-priced in this matchup. Bundy was 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA last season and he had a dominant Opening Day, going seven scoreless while striking out seven in an unfortunate no-decision against the Twins. Verlander went six scoreless in his opening day win over Texas, allowing four hits and two walks to go along with five K’s. Again this particular selection comes down to overall “value” though. Bundy comes in on top form and I believe he can easily match Verlander inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the “value” swings to the undervalued underdog. Play on Baltimore. Good luck…Larry |
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04-03-18 | Warriors v. Thunder -2.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:00 EST). The 56-21 Golden State Warriors are in Oklahoma City to take on the 45-33 Thunder on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. After losing three straight, the Warriors have bounced back to win two in a row. Over lowly Sacramento and Phoenix. Kevin Durant led the way for the Warriors in their most recent victory, posting 28 points, 10.5 boards and 6.5 assists. Golden State is pretty much healthy now, however star Stephen Curry remains sidelined likely until the playoffs start with a knee issue. OKC is just 2-4 in its last six but did bounce back to take out New Orleans most recently, pushing the Thunder to the cusp of clinching a playoff spot. A second win over the defending champs this season would go a long way to re-energize the team for the stretch run. The Thunder are still a half game behind the Spurs for fourth spot and home court advantage to open the playoffs. The victory over New Orleans was significant to Paul George: “This is a huge win,” George said afterwards. “This is a great win, playing against an opponent who is in the same position for us. A must win for both teams. It was a step in the right direction for us to pick up a game like this on an opponent’s floor.” Note that Golden State is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games, while the Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest. The Warriors have issues right now and confidence is one of them. OKC is the “hungrier” team tonight and I think that’ll prove to be the difference. Lay the points, play on the Thunder. Good luck…Larry |
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04-03-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers -127 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 EST). The Cards hammered the Brewers 8-4 yesterday, but I think that the home side bounces back on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Joe Flaherty, who was 0-2 with a 6.33 ERA in the Cardinals last year. Flaherty then followed up that sub-par effort with a pedestrian spring, posting a 4.60 ERA over 15.2 innings of work to go along with four home runs conceded. The Brewers counter with Chase Anderson, who was 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA last season and who finished a strong spring stanza with a decent finish, giving up no runs off one hit while striking out six over six innings in an eventual victory over the Padres. Note that Anderson was particularly effective in this position last year, going 6-1 with a 2.55 ERA in all “night” games and 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA at home. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I absolutely believe that Anderson offers great value in this matchup. Lay the price, play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-03-18 | Predators -125 v. Panthers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 30 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Nashville Predators (7:30 EST). Nashville enters off a 4-1 road win over Tampa Bay, while Florida comes in off a tough and highly satisfying 3-2 win over Carolina just last night. Fatigue is a major issue at this time of the season and I think it will be the deciding factor in this matchup. Nashville comes in with a ton of momentum as well after hammering the Lightning 4-1 in Tampa Bay on Sunday. The Predators are road warriors, 24-15 away from friendly confines and averaging 3.03 goals and conceding 2.44 in those contests. Predators’ goaltender Pekka Rinne is 17-8 with a 2.07 GAA on the road. Florida is 23-14 at home, averaging 3.30 GPG and conceding 2.92 in those contests. Goaltender Roberto Luongo is 20-20 with a 3.00 GAA, including 11-6 with a 2.77 GAA at home. Note though that Nashville is 14-5 in its last 19 against teams with winning records and 18-6 in its last 24 when playing on one days rest, while Florida is a poor 5-16 in its last 21 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Nashville is playing for the President’s Cup right now, while the Panthers are on the cusp of being eliminated. As mentioned off the top, I think the home side comes in “flat” after last night’s victorious battle. Lay the price, play on Nashville. Good luck…Larry |
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04-02-18 | Rockies -117 v. Padres | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 32 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (10:10 EST). Ultimately I believe this is a much bigger talent discrepancy on the mound than what this line is suggesting. Chad Bettis was just 2-4 with a 5.05 ERA in 2017 and he finished the Cactus League with a 4.50 ERA over 18 innings pitched. Note that Bettis was extremely effective in this spot in his last full season, going 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA in all night contests. The Padres counters with Bryan Mitchell, who was 1-1 with a 5.79 ERA for the Yanks last season. Mitchell was decent in Triple-A last year, but his big league numbers were awful (note that he had a 7.43 ERA in home games.) For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I’m giving Bettis the clear nod. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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04-02-18 | Indians -131 v. Angels | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (10:05 EST). Cleveland comes in off a 5-4 loss in Seattle, while the Angels enter off the highly satisfying 7-4 win at Oakland last night. The Tribe hand the ball to Mike Clevinger, who was 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA last season. Clevinger comes in off a strong spring and note that he was particularly effective in these spots last year by going 7-3 with a 2.45 ERA in all road contests. The home side counters with JC Ramirez, who was 11-10 with a 4.15 ERA last season. Ramirez sported a pedestrian 6.4 K/9 last year and note that he was just 3-6 with a ballooned 4.80 ERA in all home contests. Let’s call these potent line-ups a “wash” for arguments sake and instead focus in on the starters. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I’m giving the big nod to Clevinger, who I believe is poised for another break-out campaign. Lay this very fair price, play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Michigan (9:20 EST). I had a play on Villanova in the Final Four in its 95-79 win over Kansas, but I think the Wildcats are going to stumble here against the depth and defensive pressure that the Wolverines bring to the table. The Wolverines were down by ten with 14:10 left to go in the second half before rallying for their victory over Loyola-Chicago. Michigan went down early, but its confidence never waivered and its relentless defensive pressure proved to be just too much for the Ramblers to handle in the end, holding Loyola-Chicago to just one made 3-pointer. Mortiz Wagner finished with 24 points and 15 boards for the Wolverines in the victory as Michigan would go on to score 47 points in the second half while shooting 57 percent. Villanova was red hot in the first half of its Final Four win over the Jayhawks, connecting on 17 of 33 shots, including going 13 of 26 from range. The Wildcats enter the National Championship Game as the No. 1 offense with an average of 87 PPG. Michigan though presents difficult matchup problems on the wings and its defense is playing at an elite level right now. Outright win? It’s not out of the question obviously. But in a game which I think is more even than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, one which could very well be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Play on Michigan. Good luck…Larry |
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04-02-18 | Capitals v. Blues -140 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -140 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the St. Louis Blues (8:05 EST). I base my picks on many different things and for this one I’m basing it on scheduling. Washington will be putting its full focus onto the ice on Sunday night as it’s in Pittsburgh to take its top rival. St. Louis on the other hand will be looking to atone for an ugly 6-0 road loss at Arizona. Washington enters Sunday having gone 19-20 on the road, averaging 2.90 goals and conceding 3.38 in those contests. St. Louis though is 24-15 at home, averaging 2.77 goals and conceding 2.46. Braden Holtby is just 11-11 with a 4.00 GAA on the road this year for Washington, while Jake Allen is 14-10 with a 2.58 GAA at home for the St. Louis. St. Louis is in a dog fight for a playoff spot and I think the situational factors working in its favor tonight indeed make the Blues well worth the price of admission in this position. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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04-02-18 | Nationals v. Braves +118 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8:30 ET). You pretty much know what you’re going to get out of Tanner Roark each year, but Sean Newcomb looks ready for a break out campaign. Newcomb was 4-9 with a 4.32 ERA last season, but the big southpaw comes in off a red hot spring in which he posted a 15/5 K/W over 15.1 innings of work. Roark was 13-11 with a 4.67 ERA last season and he struggled in the spring, getting rocked for 12 earned runs over his final two outings spanning 12 innings of work. Washington comes in off the satisfying 6-5 win at Cincinnati last night and I think it’ll stumble here against the rested home side. I’m banking on Newcomb’s dominant spring carrying over and I believe Roark’s inconsistencies continue as well. Great value, play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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04-02-18 | Cubs -137 v. Reds | 0-1 | Loss | -137 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Daytime Dominator on the Chicago Cubs (4:10 EST)). Tyler Chatwood was 8-15 with a 4.69 ERA in 2017 for the Colorado Rockies. Chatwood posted an excellent spring and I think he’s going to carry that momentum over here for his new team. Note that Chatwood was at his best on the road last year (not surprising obviously), by posting a very respectable 3.49 ERA. Also note that he was 4-3 with a 3.04 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with Tyler Mahle, who was 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA last year. Mahle earned his way into the Reds’ weak rotation because of a strong Cactus League showing, but note that he was blasted in his final tune-up, getting rocked for six run off ten hits over four innings against the Rangers in Texas. Off the 6-0 defeat yesterday, I expect the the Cubs to come in razor focused here. The Reds enter off a loss to the Nationals and I think they’re ripe for the picking. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a fantastic price. Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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04-01-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Nuggets (8:00 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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04-01-18 | Devils -157 v. Canadiens | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New Jersey Devils (7:00 EST) Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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04-01-18 | Magic +2 v. Hawks | 88-94 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Orlando Magic (6:00 EST). A couple of bottom feeders go head-to-head in this one, but for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side. Orlando has lost two in a row and has just two victories out of its last ten, while Atlanta has dropped five straight and nine of ten. So where does the advantage lie between two teams which are almost trying to lose at this point so as to better their position in the draft lottery? Orlando is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 84 points or less in its previous contest (fell 90-82 to the lowly Bulls), while Atlanta is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after four or more SU losses. Both teams are injured, but the continued absence of dynamic guard Dennis Schroeder is clearly weighing heavily on the undermanned Hawks. Someone has to win this game and I clearly believe that everything points to the Magic coming out on top in this matchup. While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points in the end. Good luck…Larry |
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04-01-18 | Angels -117 v. A's | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the LA Angels (4:05 EST). This is Shohei Ohtani’s first start ever as a pitcher in the majors. Ohtani had mixed results this spring as a pitcher, getting rocked for 15 runs over 8.1 total frames, but posting an elite 19:3 K:BB during that span. The home side will counters with Daniel Gossett. Andrew Triggs was originally supposed to get the start here, but the A’s flipped the order, with Triggs now going on Monday against Texas. Gossett was a confirmed “gas can” last year, finishing with a sub-par 6.11 ERA in 18 starts for Oakland. Gossett is expected to be bounced from the rotation once Paul Blackburn returns. The pressure is on Ohtani, but he fortunately faces a very winnable scenario here. I think the visitors give their rookie some support, play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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04-01-18 | Astros -149 v. Rangers | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Houston Astros (3:05 EST). The defending champs hand the ball to Gerrit Cole on Sunday afternoon. Cole was 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA with Pittsburgh last year. He stumbled in his final spring start, but in his four previous tune-ups he posted a 1.42 ERA with 15 K’s spanning 12.2 innings of work. This is Mike Minor’s first start since 2014 and he’s only thrown a total of 120 innings since 2015 after undergoing shoulder surgery. Minor was 6-6 with a 2.25 ERA as a reliever last year, but clearly this is a big step up for the eight year pro. Cole’s spring performance was encouraging and I believe he’ll have more than enough the tank in his first start of the season to easily get the better of his untested counterpart. Lay the price, play on Houston. Good luck…Larry |
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04-01-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +104 | 4-7 | Win | 104 | 21 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST). I think we’re getting great value on Marcus Stroman and the home side in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Sonny Gray, who was 10-13 with a 3.55 ERA in 2017. Gray for the most part bounced back from a terrible 2016, but I still think he’ll have his hands full here in this hostile environment and facing Toronto’s young ace. The home side counters with Marcus Stroman, who was 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA last year. Stroman was tabbed as the Opening Day starter originally, but it was pushed back out of concern for a nagging shoulder issue. Note that Stroman was particularly effective at home last year by posting a tiny 2.63 ERA. Gray bounced back last year, but I’m unconvinced that he’s turned the corner until I can see him throw a few times this season. Stroman on the other hand has gotten better each campaign and there’s no reason not to think he’ll be able to carry that progression over here. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is the very definition of great line value. Play on the Blue Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 131 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on Villanova (8:45 EST). I had a play on Kansas last weekend, but I’m going against the Jayhawks in the Final Four. The Jayhawks advanced with an 85-81 OT win over Duke, while Villanova advanced with a 71-59 victory over Texas Tech. Kansas averages 81.4 PPG and it concedes 71. Malik Newman had 32 points in the Elite Eight victory. Overall the Jayhawks won the rebounding battle as well 47-32, helping to overcome 18 turnovers. And sloppy play like that won’t get the job done against the Wildcats, who enter as the nation’s No. 1 offense with 87 PPG. The defense has been decent as well, conceding 70.5. Jalen Bruson led the way in the most recent victory with 15 points. (Additional supporting ATS stats to be added shortly) These teams are very evenly matched, with plenty of veteran experience. But the Wildcats’ depth (six players averring double figures) will prove to ultimately be too much for Kansas to overcome in my opinion. The Jayhawks battled tooth and nail against the Blue Devils, but I have a hard time seeing Kansas matching pace down the stretch. Villanova’s top ranked offense wins out in the end. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-18 | Nets +8 v. Heat | Top | 110-109 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Brooklyn Nets (8:00 EST). Miami comes in having won two straight, including a 103-92 victory over the lowly Bulls on Thursday. Brooklyn enters the final stages of the 2017/18 season in familiar territory, as it looks to prepare for the upcoming draft. However, for a number of different reasons I think the Nets are going to be able to keep this one competitive. Spencer Dinwiddie has been a bright spot for Brooklyn of late, averaging 12.7 points, 6.5 assists and 3.3 boards per game. The Nets have been fighting hard, winning four out of their last ten. The Heat beat Cleveland 98-79 and then carried that momentum over into the victory over Chicago, but I think they’re poised for a letdown here. And the numbers/trends support that, as note that Miami is a poor 16-18 ATS as the favorite this year and a horrible 2-10 ATS following a win by ten points or more. Brooklyn on the other hand has been money in the bank for bettors in this spot by going 24-12 ATS on the road this season and 26-16 ATS against teams with winning records. I like the visitors to battle though and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a very healthy spread that they’ve been afforded. Play on Brooklyn. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-18 | Wild v. Stars +101 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 101 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Dallas Stars (8:00 EST). Minnesota posted a 4-2 home win over Dallas on Thursday. Suffice it to say, it’s payback time for the desperate Stars tonight. So for the Wild lead the season-series 2-1. The Wild broke a two-game slide with that victory, as Matt Dumba posted a goal and three assists. So far Minnesota averages 3.1 GPG, while conceding 2.8. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk is 33-14-7 with a 2.56 GAA and a .917 save percentage. Dallas averages 2.8 GPG and it concedes 2.7. Kari Lehtonen is 13-14-3 with a 2.59 GAA. Tyler Seguin has been a bright spot offensively of late with five points in his last five games (and note that Seguin has six points in three games vs. the Wild.) Dallas is the more desperate team here, having lost nine of its last ten and I ultimately believe that’s going to be the difference maker here. Throw in the immediate “revenge factor” and the home ice advantage and in my opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Dallas. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-18 | Twins v. Orioles -108 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). Neither of these staters instills much confidence, but I believe that Andrew Cashner is absolutely the correct call in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Kirk Gibson, who finished 12-10 with a 5.07 ERA last year. Gibson had a decent spring, finishing with a 1.80 ERA and while he did close 2017 strong, I still think he’s going to struggle to match pace with his counterpart tonight. The home side goes with Andrew Cashner, who was 11-11 with a 3.40 ERA, to go along with a 1.32 WHIP and 86/64 K/W ratio over 166.2 innings last season. Note that Cashner was particularly effective in all home games last year by posting a 2.72 ERA. For arguments sake, let’s call these line-ups a “wash.” I believe Cashner has the advantage of throwing at home here and all things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price. Play on Baltimore. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan OVER 128 | Top | 57-69 | Loss | -125 | 128 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is the over Loyola Chicago/Michigan (6:05 EST). No. 11 Loyola-Chicago is looking for another upset here taking on No. 3 Michigan in the Final Four on Saturday from San Antonio. So far the Ramblers have advanced with wins over Miami, Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State. The Wolverines have made it to this point with victories over Montana, Houston, Texas A&M and Florida State. Loyola Chicago averages 72 PPG and it concedes 62.4. The Ramblers shot 57% in their 78-62 destruction of K-State, led by 23 points from Ben Richardson. Loyola Chicago would also hold the Wildcats to just 34 percent shooting. Michigan averages 74.1 PPG and it concedes 63.1. The Wolverines shot just 38.8 percent in their win over FSU, but they’d go on to hold the Seminoles to an even worse 32 percent. Charles Matthews was an offensive bright spot with 17 points and eight boards. These teams are known for their defensive prowess, but I think the value has swung the other way here. The Ramblers have shot at least 50 percent from the floor in their last three games, all coming against very strong defensive teams. Loyola Chicago will be looking to get the Wolverines out of their comfort zone, which means a faster paced affair. Faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. (Additional O/U ATS supporting trends to be added shortly) With the extra time off to prepare and rest, I look for these two hungry teams to push the tempo and for this one to sneak over as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago +5.5 v. Michigan | 57-69 | Loss | -116 | 128 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Loyola Chicago (6:05 EST). No. 11 Loyola-Chicago is looking for another upset here taking on No. 3 Michigan in the Final Four on Saturday from San Antonio. So far the Ramblers have advanced with wins over Miami, Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State. The Wolverines have made it to this point with victories over Montana, Houston, Texas A&M and Florida State. Loyola Chicago averages 72 PPG and it concedes 62.4. The Ramblers shot 57% in their 78-62 destruction of K-State, led by 23 points from Ben Richardson. Loyola Chicago would also hold the Wildcats to just 34 percent shooting. Michigan averages 74.1 PPG and it concedes 63.1. The Wolverines shot just 38.8 percent in their win over FSU, but they’d go on to hold the Seminoles to an even worse 32 percent. Charles Matthews was an offensive bright spot with 17 points and eight boards. (Additional supporting ATS trends to be added shortly) The Ramblers have shot at least 50 percent from the floor in their last three games, all coming against very strong defensive teams. Loyola Chicago’s defense has also looked very stout as well. The Wolverines struggled offensively last time out and it’s not going to get any easier here. The Ramblers appear to be a team of destiny right now and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-18 | Indians -104 v. Mariners | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (4:10 EST). A couple of elite hurlers go head-to-head on Saturday afternoon in the Pacific Northwest, but for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors. Carlos Carrasco was 18-6 with a 3.29 ERA last year. Carrasco looked sharp in his limited spring action and while he did take a come-backer off his foot in his final outing, he’s been given the green light to go here. Note that the hard-throwing right-hander was particularly effective in this spot last year by going 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA in all “day” games and a “lights out” 11-2 with a 2.65 ERA on the road. Jamex Paxton was 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA last year. Paxton gave up three runs off six hits and a walk over five innings in his final spring tune-up against the Friars on Sunday. I think Carrasco’s road dominance carries over here and I think Paxton takes a step back this season. I’m giving the slight nod to Carrasco on the mound and a big nod to the Tribe at the plate and that definitely makes the visitors the correct call in my mind. Great price, play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +129 | 3-5 | Win | 129 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (4:05 EST). I think Marco Estrada offers great value in this matchup. The Yanks hand the ball to CC Sabathia, who posted a 3.69 ERA and 1.27 WHIP last year (his best marks since 2012), however that came at the expense of his strikeout rate, which fell to 7.3 K/9. I think last season was an anomaly for the 37 year old and I believe regression will be immediate. Estrada finished 2017 well, after a horrible start. In the end he was 10-9 with a 4.98 ERA. Still. his 1.38 WHIP was near elite, to go along with a decent 176/71 K/W over 186 frames of work. Note that he was 6-3 with a 4.34 ERA at home last season. Toronto is dealing with injuries in its line-up, but for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Estrada is the correct call. Play on the Blue Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-18 | Blues v. Golden Knights -150 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Las Vegas Golden Knights (10:30 EST). The 48-22-4 Vegas Golden Knights are at St. Louis to take on the 43-28-5 Blues on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one highly favors the home side. Vegas is coming off a 3-2 loss to Arizona, while the Blues enter off a highly satisfying 3-2 OT win over the Sharks. St. Louis has won six straight and looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that the Blues are a poor 1-5 in their last six road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Vegas is 4-1 in its last five after scoring two goals or less in its previous contest. I like Vegas to bounce back in this spot after its latest loss and all things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price. Play on the Golden Knights. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -155 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). Tyler Anderson was 5-6 with a 3.54 ERA in 2016, but then he’d take a step back in 2017 with a 6-6, 4.81 ERA. Anderson has dealt with various injuries over the last three years, which has hampered his progression. It’s definitely important to note though that Anderson had a 4.14 ERA and 0.87 HR/9 at hitter friendly Coors Field, compared to a 5.44 ERA and 2.4 HR/9 on the road. The home side counters with co-ace Robbie Ray, who was 8-15 with a 4.90 ERA in 2016 and then who was 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA in 2017. Ray appeared in five games this spring and gave up ten runs. Note that Ray was particularly effective in this spot last year by going 12-4 with a 2.52 ERA in all “night” contests. Ray may not be able to post the same type as numbers as he did last season, but I think he’ll easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart tonight. And that makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-18 | Wolves v. Mavs +5.5 | 93-92 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:35 EST). Dallas comes in off a 103-93 loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, while Minnesota comes in sitting in seventh in the Western Conference, only 1.5 games out of the No. 4 seed (also just 1.5 games out of ninth place in the log-jammed Western Conference.) The pressure is on Minnesota and while Dallas won’t be playing in the postseason, I do definitely feel that the thought of playing “spoiler” in some small way will help in keeping this one extremely competitive. The Wolves enter off a highly-satisfying 126-114 win over Atlanta, getting a monster game from Karl Anthony Towns with 56 points and 15 boards. Harrison Barnes was a bright spot for the Mavs in their latest loss to LA with 17 points, while veteran Dirk Nowitzki would add 13. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota has really struggled in this spot for bettors all season by going a poor 9-14 ATS after scoring 115 points or more, while Dallas has performed unbelievably well in this position by going 12-4 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more. Minnesota enjoys a night off before a divisional matchup with equally as hungry Utah at home on Sunday, meaning that a potential “look ahead” to that one is definitely not out of the question either for the visitors. While I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything definitely points to this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-18 | Suns v. Rockets OVER 218 | Top | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Suns/Rockets (8:05 EST). The Suns are playing for a top lottery ball this coming summer, but after ten straight losses, including a 111-99 setback at home to the Clippers on Wednesday, I expect the team to come out fired up tonight as it looks to break the string of futility. Houston has won ten straight, most recently smashing the lowly Bulls 118-86 at home on Tuesday. When these teams met on January 28th, it was a rather lower-scoring affair in the Rockets’ 113-102 home win, but I think we’re going to see a more wide-open pace this evening. Phoenix averages 103.8 PPG and it concedes 113.7. Devin Booker averages a team high 24.9 points and 4.7 assists per game, while Elfrid Payton adds 12.7 points and 6.2 assists. Tyler Ulis led the way in a losing cause last time out though with 23. Houston averages 113.6 PPG and it concedes 104.2. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 30.7 points, 5.4 boards and 8.7 assists per game and he didn’t even play in the latest victory, given the night off for rest. Houston easily smashed the Bulls, led by 31 points from Eric Gordon. I’ll point out that Houston has seen the total go over the number in (not surprisingly), 20 of 35 this year against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last seven after scoring 115 points or more. The Rockets’ totals have been sky-high all season and for the year Houston has seen the O/U go 33-41 overall. But I’m expecting Phoenix to push the pace tonight and with the expected return of Harden as well, I believe this one flies over the posted number comfortably as the game comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-18 | Phillies v. Braves -124 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -124 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). The Braves roared back for an 8-5 win in yesterday’s season opener against the Phillies and I think the team will carry that momentum over here into this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Pivetta, who was an unremarkable 8-10 with a 6.02 ERA last year. Pivetta gave up at least one walk and one homer in all four of his spring starts to finish with a poor 5.40 ERA. Note that he was particularly bad on the road last season as well by going 4-7 with a 6.65 ERA. The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz, who was 9-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 2016 and who was then 10-13 with a 4.79 ERA last year. Foltynewicz posted career high 8.4 K/9 last season, while his 1.2 HR/9 was a career low. Note that he’d also go on to post a highly respectable 3.95 ERA in all home games last year. Neither of these staters instils much confidence, but I’m giving Foltynewicz the clear nod in this matchup and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-18 | Red Sox v. Rays +153 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST). The Rays came back in extra innings yesterday for the 6-4 win (I had TB in that one as a sizeable dog) and I expect the team to carry that momentum over here. The visitors hand the ball to David Price who was 17-9 with a 3.99 ERA in 2016 and who was then injured for most of 2017, finishing with a 6-3, 3.38 ERA. Price gave up two runs off three hits and a walk over five innings in his final spring tune-up. The home side counters with Blake Snell, who was 6-8 with a 3.54 ERA in 2016 and who finished 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA last year. Note though that Snell finished the season on fire by going 5-1 with a 2.84 ERA over his final ten starts. Snell then carried that momentum over into a solid spring where he posted a 3.12 ERA over five starts. "Last year to this year is completely different," Snell remarked recently. "Just mindset wise. And where I stand right now, it's way different. I think everyone can tell. Just focus. Ready to go. Been waiting for this season a long time, so definitely excited that it's here now." I think Snell can easily match Price inning for inning and in a scenario like that, there’s no question that the value swings to the dog. Play on Tampa Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-18 | Indians -156 v. Mariners | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -156 | 37 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Opening Day LEGEND is on the Cleveland Indians (10:10 EST). I think Corey Kluber and the hard-hitting Indians are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Kluber was 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA in 2016 and 18-4 with a 2.25 ERA in 2017. He posted a 265/36 K/W over 203.2 innings to go along with a 0.87 WHIP to win the AL Cy Young Award last season. Note that Kluber was dominant in his spring time, posting 15 K’s over 8.2 innings spanning three starts. The home side counters with Felix Hernandez who was 11-8 with a 3.82 ERA in 2016 and then who was 6-5 with a 4.36 ERA in 2017. Hernandez comes in off a decent spring finale, allowing an earned run off four hits and a walk over 3.2 innings while striking out three, but I think he’s in way over his head here. This isn’t 2013. “The King” is on the decline and he’s facing one of the World’s best right now. Kluber is already locked in on top form and the Indians have something to prove this year. Everything points to a blowout, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-18 | Pacers -7 v. Kings | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Indiana Pacers (10:00 EST). Indiana comes in on top form, most recently posting its third straight win in a 92-81 victory at Golden State on Tuesday. Sacramento has lost two straight, most recently getting upended by Dallas at home 103-97 on Tuesday. If recent history is any precedence, then Indiana has to be loving its chances today as well as it’s taken three straight in the series, including a 101-83 home victory in the first matchup of the season back on October 31st. The Pacers enter averaging 105.6 PPG, while conceding 103.9. Victor Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 23.2 points, 5.3 boards and 2.25 steals per game average and it was Oladipo who would go on to score 24 points, grab six boards and dish out six assists in the victory over the defending champs. The Kings average 99.4 PPG and they concede 106.7. De’Aaron Fox averages 11.3 points, 2.6 boards and 4.3 assists per game, while Buddy Hield contributes 13.2 points. Skal Labissiere was a bright spot in the latest setback with 19 points and 18 boards. I’ll point out that Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest, while Sacramento is just 17-21 ATS at home this year. Sacramento is dealing with injuries (Randolph questionable) and has absolutely nothing to play for at this point. Indiana on the other hand still has a legitimate shot at running down Cleveland for the division lead and as mentioned off the top, the visitors are playing at any extremely high level right now anyways. Everything screams “blowout” here. Lay the points, play on the Pacers. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-18 | Sharks v. Predators -155 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Nashville Predators (8:00 EST). San Jose comes to Nashville completed dejected off a 3-2 OT loss (a setback which snapped an eight-game losing steak), while the Predators enter off a momentum building 2-1 shootout win over Minnesota. The Sharks are 20-19 on the road, averaging 2.74 goals and conceding 2.87 in those contests. Martin Jones is 29-24 with a 2.45 GAA, including 11-14 with a 2.65 GAA on the road. Nashville is 26-12 at home, averaging 3.29 goals and conceding 2.47 in those match ups. Goaltender Pekka Rinne is 41-15 with a 2.25 GAA, including 24-7 with a 2.39 GAA at home (owns a 1.92 GAA lifetime against San Jose as well.) Despite its recent big win streak, note that San Jose is still just 14-18 (-5.8 units) this year against clubs with winning records, while Nashville is 27-13 (+12.2 units) this season in the same position. Both goaltenders have been sharp this year, but I’m still giving the big nod to Rinne in this one. The Sharks’ weakness thus far has been their performance on the road and all signs point to a classic letdown after their win streak was snapped last time out. All things considered, I feel this line could easily be a lot higher. Great value, play on the Predators. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah OVER 135 | Top | 82-66 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Penn State/Utah (7:00 EST). Penn State advanced with a 75-70 win over Mississippi State, while Utah would rally to take down Western Kentucky 69-64. The Nittany Lions average 74.6 PPG and they allow 66.7. Penn State has averaged 75.2 PPG and conceded 69.1 in all neutral court affairs this year. The Nittany Lions’ defense looked sharp in holding the Bulldogs to just 39.6 percent shooting. Leading the offensive attack was Tony Carr with 21 points, while Shep Garner added 18. Utah has looked great in this tournament as well, going on the road to take out a tough St. Mary’s team, before then gutting out the victory over WKU. Utah averages 73.7 PPG and it concedes 68.1. The Utes have averaged 69 PPG and allowed 72 in all neutral site match ups this season. Utah hit 47.9 percent from the floor in its latest win led by 19 points from Justin Bibbins. I’ll point out that Penn State has seen the total go over the number in eight of 13 on the road this year and in 15 of 26 against schools with winning records, while Utah has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last nine after holding its previous opponent to 64 points or less. These are two teams which predicate themselves on their tough defensive play, but I’m anticipating a faster paced Final. This can still be a tight, lower-scoring game and go over this very low total, and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-18 | White Sox v. Royals -158 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -158 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (4:15 EST). The visitors hand the ball to the volatile James Shields, who was a terrible 6-19 with a 5.85 ERA in 2016 and then 5-7 with a 5.23 ERA in 2017. Note that one day after being dubbed the Opening Day starter, Shields would allow seven runs off eight hits and two walks over 3.2 innings in an eventual loss to the A’s. The home side counters with ace Danny Duffy, who was 12-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 2016 and who was then 9-10 with a 3.81 ERA last season. Duffy had a decent spring and he’s been given the green light here after dealing with a minor shoulder issue in his final spring start. Note that Duffy posted a 3.48 ERA at home last season. The Royals were pathetic offensively last year, but this is a matchup which should provide some Opening Night fireworks for the fans. I don’t normally lay chalk of this size, but I believe Duffy is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Play on the Royals. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-18 | Red Sox v. Rays +151 | 4-6 | Win | 151 | 31 h 50 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (4:00 EST). I think it’s a great spot to pull the trigger on the home dog on Opening Day. It’s hard to say anything negative about Chris Sale obviously, but Chris Archer shook off a poor 2016 to post a decent 2017 and I think he’ll be able to match his counterpart inning for inning tonight. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the dog. Sale was 17-10 with a 3.34 ERA with the White Sox in 2016 and then 17-8 with 2.90 ERA for the Red Sox in 2017. Sale’s good to go in 2018, however I think it’s worthy to note that the southpaw was forced to throw a bullpen session on Monday after taking a come-backer off the hip in his final outing of Spring training. Archer is dealing with a similar issue, throwing a bullpen session on Monday after aggravating his shoulder. Archer though has also been given the green light on Opening Day and as I mentioned off the top, i think he’s going to be able to match pace with Sale against a Red Sox line-up which will have to endure some growing pains and chemistry. It’s the perfect set of situational circumstances working in favor of the home side on Opening Day. Play on the Rays. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-18 | Yankees -143 v. Blue Jays | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (3:35 EST). Luis Severino was 3-8 with a 5.83 ERA in 2016, but he’d have a break out campaign in 2017 by going 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA. Severino had a decent Spring and he’s always fared well North of the border by posting a 3.60 ERA in 20 career innings in Toronto. The home side counters with the erratic JA Happ, who was 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 2016, before then going 10-11 with a 3.53 ERA in 2017. Happ was decent in Spring as well and his numbers should stay pretty consistent this season. Severino though looked particularly good at time this Spring and he’s now backed by the most feared line-up in the Majors. I give a slight nod to Severino on the mound and a big nod to the Yanks re-worked line-up and that absolutely makes “The Evil Empire” well worth the price of admission in this spot in my opinion. Great value, play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-18 | Cardinals v. Mets -138 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 6* Daytime Dominator on the New York Mets (1:10 EST). While he was injured for the majority of last year, I think that Noah Syndergaard offers great value on Opening Day. Syndergaard was 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA in 2016 and then just 1-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 2017. Syndergaard comes into his first start of the year off a great final spring tune-up, giving up one run off eight hits over seven innings while striking out five. In all “Thor” would post a 23/6 K/W over 20 spring innings of work. The visitors counter with Carlos Martinez who was 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA in 2016 and 12-11 with a 3.64 ERA in 2017. Martinez also looked pretty good in his final spring start, giving up one run over four innings against the Marlins. Martinez was just 6-8 with a 4.02 ERA on the road last year though and I think he’ll have a hard time matching pace with Syndergaard at home. As mentioned off the top, all things considered I do indeed feel this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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03-28-18 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* PUCK-LINE Las Vegas Insider is on the Las Vegas Golden Knights (10:05 EST). Arizona comes in off a 4-1 road victory over Tampa Bay, while Vegas enters off a 4-1 home victory over Colorado. Arizona is expected to send out Mike Smith, while Marc-Andre Fleury will get the nod between the pipes for the home side. The Coyotes have won 13 of their last 21 overall, but they’re still just 11-26 on the road, averaging 2.54 goals and conceding 3.38 in those contests. After going 2-4 over their previous six, the Knights bounced back with the 4-1 home win over the Avs most recently. Vegas is 27-11 at home and it averages 3.61 goals and concedes 2.47 in those contests. Fleury will be a difference maker tonight, as he’s now 28-15 on the year, including 15-9 with a 2.34 GAA at home (note that he’s 7-5 with a 1.98 GAA lifetime against the Coyotes as well.) Additionally I’ll point out that Arizona is just 12-26 in its last 38 following a victory, while Vegas is 24-9 when playing on one days rest. After their big 4-1 upset in Tampa Bay, everything points to a predictable letdown here for the ‘Yotes. Expect Vegas to lay the hammer down from start to finish. Play on the Knights on the puck line. Good luck…Larry |
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03-28-18 | Knicks +14 v. 76ers | Top | 101-118 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the New York Knicks (7:05 EST). I don’t normally play underdogs of this size, but for this one I’m going to bend my “rule.” And while I’m definitely not calling for the outright upset, for a number of different reasons I feel that this one will be a lot more competitive in the end than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. New York won’t be in the postseason, but it comes into this one playing competitively overall right now, most recently falling 137-128 in OT to Charlotte on the road on Monday. The 76ers come in complacent though in my opinion after seven straight victories, most recently a 123-104 home win over Denver on Monday. Note as well that this is an in-season triple-revenge scenario for the Knicks, as the 76ers have taken all three previous meetings this year, including a 118-110 road victory in the most recent on March 15th. New York averages 104.5 PPG and it concedes 107.9. Trey Burke had 42 points and 12 assists in the loss to Charlotte. Philadelphia averages 108.7 PPG and it concedes 105.5. The 76ers won the rebounding battle 54-37 in their win over the Nuggets, helping offset 17 turnovers. Big man Joel Embiid led the way with 20 points in the victory. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is just 5-9 ATS against the division this year, while New York is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. New York may be tired here, but Philadelphia becomes a victim of complacency in my opinion. Look for the Knicks to battle tough and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread they’ve been afforded in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago +6.5 v. Liberty | 67-51 | Win | 100 | 57 h 13 m | Show | |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on UIC (7:00 EST). The winner of this game will advance to the CIT Championship Game. Illinois Chicago comes in red hot, putting up at least 81 points in each of its first two tournament wins. Liberty averages only 71.4 PPG, but it put up 84 in its latest victory. The Flames most recently beat Austin Peay 83-81, putting up 52 points in the second half, while shooting 43.5 percent from range. Marcus Ottey led the way in the victory with 17 points, but in all four of five starters would post double figures in scoring. Liberty comes in off the 84-71 home win over Central Michigan, also using a big second half to pull away for good, outscoring the Chips by 13 points after the break. Liberty would go on to shoot 56.1 percent from the floor, including 44 percent from range. Four players would reach double figures in scoring, led by Ryan Kemrite with 21. Note though that Liberty is 0-2 ATS in its last two after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest, while Illinois Chicago is 5-1 ATS this season when playing with five or six days of rest. The Flames come in playing at an extremely high level offensively right now and I believe that chemistry will keep this one competitive until the final moments. Everything point to a “nail biter,” so grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-27-18 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Penn State | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Mississippi State (9:30 EST). It’s No. 4 Mississippi State against No. 4 Penn State in the semifinal of the NIT from Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the team from the SEC. The Bulldogs average 74 PPG, while shooting 47 percent from the floor collectively. Quinndary Weatherspoon leads the nightly charge with 15 PPG. Note that Mississippi State is stout defensively, conceding just 64 PPG. The Nittany Lions average 75 PPG on 46 percent shooting, led by 20 points and five assists a night from guard Tony Carr. Penn State’s offense might be slightly better, but its defense has been its weak point this season. Additionally I’ll point out that Mississippi State is 27-20 ATS in its last 47 when playing the role of underdog, while Penn State is just 3-6 ATS this season after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest. I think the Bulldogs’ fough defense slows down the Nittany Lions here and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for this one to be a “nail biter.” Play on Mississippi State. Good luck…Larry |
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03-27-18 | Flyers v. Stars -130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Dallas Stars (8:30 EST). The 38-25-13 Philadelphia Flyers are in Dallas to take on the 38-30-8 Stars on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. It’s do or die time for Dallas, which comes in looking to snap an eight-game losing streak. Most recently the Stars fell 4-1 to Vancouver as a -200 favorite (I had the Canucks on the puck-line in that one.) Note that Philadelphia has earned points in five straight despite going just 2-3. With a tough game at Columbus tomorrow night (the team sitting a single game ahead of them in the Metropolitan standings), I absolutely believe that the visitors get caught “looking ahead” here. Clearly Dallas does not have that luxury. The Stars are enduring their worst losing streak ever since moving to Dallas and I expect the team to play with an extreme sense of desperation. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is a poor 12-15 (-4.4 units) this year after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest, while Dallas is 11-6 (+2.8 units) this season after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. Note that the Stars also play with the added motivation of “revenge” tonight after falling 2-1 in OT in Philadelphia in mid December. All things considered, I feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Stars. Good luck…Larry |
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03-27-18 | Cavs v. Heat +2.5 | 79-98 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Heat (8:00 EST). Cleveland comes to South Beach off a 121-114 road win over the Nets on Sunday, while Miami enters off a 113-107 OT loss to Indiana in its latest action. Note that this is an in-season double revenge scenario for the home side as Cleveland has taken both earlier meetings this year. Cleveland averages 111.1 PPG and it concedes 110.3. LeBron James leads the nightly charge with 27.5 points per game, while Kevin Love adds 18 points and 9.4 boards per game. Miami averages 103.3 PPG and it concedes 103.1. Hassan Whiteside remains out with injury, but I still think the Heat show up in a big way here as they try to avenge the two earlier losses to the Cavs. Tyler Johnson was a standout in the losing cause to the Pacers most recently with 19 points. From a trend based stand point though, there’s no question that this one highly favors the home side, as note that Cleveland is just 11-18 ATS this year after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Miami is 70-48 ATS in its last 118 when trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and 22-15 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog. I think the Cavs get caught a little complacent here after their five-game win streak and while the outright isn’t out of the question obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Heat. Good luck…Larry |
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03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah +1 | 64-69 | Win | 102 | 34 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Utah (7:00 EST). It’s the 27-10 WKU Hilltoppers against the 21-11 Utah Utes in the semi finals of the NIT at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night and for a for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the team from the Pac 12. WKU enters off a 92-84 win over Oklahoma State, led by 30 points and eight boards from Taveion Hollingsworth. Dwight Coleby was another bright spot with 16 points, 13 boards and three blocks. The Hilltoppers come into this one averaging 78.8 PPG. Utah comes into this one averaging only 73.8 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end. Utah looked particularly stingy last time out in its 67-58 victory over St. Mary’s. Sedrick Barefield was a bright spot offensively with 19 points and four assists in that one, while Ryler Rawson would add 17 points. Saint Mary’s is one of the toughest offenses in the nation, so the Hilltoppers are going to have their hands full here. Defense doesn’t always win championships and the Utes may not ultimately go on to win the entire NIT, but I do think their smothering play will ultimately prove to be too much for WKU to overcome this time. Play on Utah. Good luck…Larry |
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03-26-18 | North Texas +3.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 62-72 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Texas (10:00 EST). This is Game 1 of the best of three championship series for the CBI Tournament crown, with North Texas facing off against San Francisco. The Mean Green advanced by taking down Jacksonville State 90-68 at home on Wednesday, while the Dons held on for a 65-62 win over Campbell in their semi-final matchup. North Texas averages 74.5 PPG and it concedes 71.4. Roosevelt Smart had 20 points in the most recent victory as the Mean Green would go on to hit a smoking 61.5 percent from the floor in the win, including going a lights out 14 of 20 from range (also won the rebound battle decisively, 38-23.) San Francisco comes into this one averaging 68.9 PPG, while conceding 68.4. The Dons have won three straight close ones to advance, with the victories coming by a total of 12 combined points. Frankie Ferrari was a bright spot in the most recent with 18 points and six assists. I’ll point out though that home court has been anything but an advantage for the Dons this year, as they come in at just 6-11 ATS at home this season (and only 7-13 ATS when playing the role of favorite). And that’s bade news facing a Mean Green team which has excelled away from friendly confines this season, as UNT is 12-4 ATS on the road thus far (also note that it’s 14-6 ATS as an underdog this year as well.) I think UNT is playing the best overall ball in this tournament right now and while the Dons do have a great defense, I can’t see San Francisco keeping pace offensively. Grab the points, play on the Mean Green. Good luck…Larry |
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03-26-18 | Red Wings v. Canadiens -150 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Montreal Canadiens (7:30 EST). Detroit comes to town off a 4-3 road loss in Toronto, while Montreal enters off a 6-4 home setback to Washington. Two veterans square off in net tonight, with Jimmy Howard going for the Wings and Carey Price going for the Habs. Detroit is 13-25 on the road, averaging 2.56 goals and conceding 3.29 in those contests. Howard gave up four goals on 29 shots in the loss to the Leafs to fall to 19-35 with a 2.88 GAA this year, including going just 6-20 with a 3.05 GAA on the road. Montreal is 17-21 at home, averaging 2.79 goals and conceding 2.74 in those games. Price gave up six goals on 30 shots last time out to fall to 15-30 with a 3.10 GAA. Note that he’s 11-13 with a 2.80 GAA at home thus far. I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 4-7 (-3.2 units) in its last 11 against teams with losing records, while Montreal is 6-4 (+2 units) in its last ten in the same position. These are two horrible teams, but the Canadiens are playing much better than the Wings right now and I expect Price to get the better of Howard with the home ice advantage. All things considered, I do indeed feel that Montreal is well worth the price of admission in this spot. Good luck…Larry |
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03-26-18 | Nuggets +5 v. 76ers | Top | 104-123 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Denver Nuggets (7:00 EST). Denver comes to town having won two straight, most recently getting the better of Washington 108-100 on the road on Friday, while Philadelphia has won six straight, most recently a 120-108 home victory over the Wolves on Saturday. Note that this is a revenge game for the visitors, as Philadelphia snagged the 107-102 road win in the first matchup this year back on December 30th. Denver comes in averaging 109.8 PPG and it concedes 108.3. Paul Millsap puts up 13.8 points and 6.1 boards per game, while Gary Harris contributes a team high 17.7 points. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray each had 25 points in the most recent victory. Philadelphia averages 108.5 PPG and it concedes 105.5. Joel Embiid averages 23.3 points, 11 boards and 1.79 blocks per night, while Ben Simmons adds 16 points, 7.9 boards, eight assists and 1.75 steals per night. Embiid led the way in the most recent victory with 19 points. I’ll point out though that Denver’s done extremely well in this spot for bettors all year, going 7-3 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss. Conversely, this is a position in which Philadelphia has struggled in, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more consecutive SU victories. Philadelphia has hit a vanilla part of its schedule, with its non-conference opponent tonight, followed by the Knicks, Hawks, Hornets and Nets. While I do think the outright upset isn’t out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end as I believe Philadelphia gets caught complacent and looking ahead and I expect the talented Nuggets to take advantage. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-18 | Canucks +1.5 v. Stars | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PUCK-LINE Las Vegas Insider is on the Vancouver Canucks (7:05 EST). Vancouver comes to town off a 4-1 road loss to St. Louis, while Dallas enters off a 3-2 home setback to Boston. The Canucks average 2.57 GPG and they concede 3.24. Goaltender Jacob Markstrom is 19-28 with a 2.78 GAA on the year, including 9-15 with a 2.58 GAA on the road. Note that he’s 1-1 with a sharp 1.27 GAA lifetime against Dallas. The Stars average 2.80 GPG and they concede 2.68. Netminder Kari Lehtonen is 12-15 with a 2.54 GAA this year, including 4-4 with a 3.10 GAA at home. Dallas has been much better at home than on the road, but note that the Stars come into this one having lost seven straight, averaging only 2.10 goals in those games. I’ll point out as well that Vancouver is still 10-8 (+6.1 units) this year after playing three consecutive road games, while Dallas is a poor 4-8 (-6.4 units) this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. The Canucks play with the added motivation of “spoiler” here as they look to add to the Stars’ playoff issues with another upset. And while the upset isn’t out of the question here, in a contest which I envision being decided late (or in extra time), I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Play on the Canucks on the puck line. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-18 | Duke v. Kansas +3.5 | Top | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Kansas (5:05 EST). Duke enters the Elite Eight off a much tougher than expected 69-65 win over Syracuse, while Kansas advanced with a tougher than expected 80-76 victory over Clemson. Duke averages 84.4 PPG and it concedes 69.2. The Blue Devils allowed the Orange to hit 49 percent of their shots, but they’d give up just four three-pointers. Duke also forced 15 turnovers, while committing only seven of its own. The Blue Devils though shot just 39.3 percent from the floor in the victory, including only 19.4 percent from range. Marvin Bagley III led the way with 22 points, while Grayson Allen added 15. Kansas averages 81.4 PPG and it concedes 71. The Jayhawks needed to hit free throws down the stretch to hold off Clemson in the Round of 16. Overall though Kansas looked pretty good, hitting 46.7 percent from the floor, including 45.5 percent from range. The Jayhawks have struggled defensively in the tournament, but they looked better against the Tigers by holding them to 43.1 percent shooting, including only 30 percent from range. (Additional supporting ATS stats to be added shortly) Both teams struggled more than they should have in the Sweet 16, but each managed to dig down and gut out the victory. Kansas though has gotten progressively better as the tournament has worn on, while it appears Duke is heading in the opposite direction. I’m banking on these trends continuing as I believe the Jayhawks will be just too much for the Blue Devils to handle down the stretch. That said, grab the points! Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-18 | Heat v. Pacers OVER 208.5 | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is the over Heat/Pacers (5:05 EST). Miami’s three-game win streak was snapped with a 105-99 setback at Oklahoma City on Friday, while Indiana enters off a 109-104 home win over the Clippers on Friday. So far Miami has taken two of three in this season series, including a 114-106 victory in the most recent matchup here on January 10th. The Heat average 103.3 PPG and they concede 103. Goran Dragic averages 17.7 points, four boards and 4.8 assists per game, while James Johnson adds 10.7 points, 4.8 boards and 3.9 assists per game. Johnson led the way in the losing cause last time out with 23 points. After losing three of four, the Pacers finally got untracked in their last game against LA and I believe the team carries that momentum over here. Indiana averages 105.7 PPG and it concedes 104.2. Victor Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 23.2 points, 5.3 boards and 2.24 steals per game, while Myles Turner adds 13.6 points, 6.8 boards and 1.94 blocks a night. It was Bojan Bogdanovic which led the way in the victory over the Clippers though with 28 points. I’ll point out as well that Miami has seen the total go over the number in nine of its last 15 against teams with winning records and in 14 of 21 overall since the All Star Game, while Indiana has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last seven after scoring 108 points or more in its previous contest. These are two Eastern Conference teams hungry for a win and everything points to a high-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova UNDER 144.5 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Texas Tech/Villanova (2:20 EST). Texas Tech comes in off a 78-65 win over Purdue, while Villanova advanced off a high-scoring 90-78 victory over WVU. These schools have never met before, but in my opinion this one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “run-and-gun shootout.” Texas Tech averages 75 PPG and it concedes just 64.6. The Red Raiders would force the Boilermakers into 17 turnovers, while committing just ten of their own. Texas Tech has turned up the heat on the defensive end of the floor so far in The Big Dance, allowing just 63.7 thus far. Keenan Evans led the way in the latest victory with 16 points, while Zach Smith added 14. Villanova averages 87 PPG and it concedes 70.5. The Wildcats own the No. 1 offense in the nation, but I think they’ll have difficulties today against the Aggies aggressive attack. Note that Villanova did commit 16 turnovers in the latest win, but overall the defense looked good by holding the high-flying Mountaineers to just 38.6 percent shooting. (updated supporting O/U trends to be added shortly) Fatigue is a very real factor at this point of the tournament and after each team played to such a high-scoring victory last time out, I think we’re going to see a more methodical pace this afternoon as these two hopeful sides battle to the end. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-18 | Florida State v. Michigan -4.5 | Top | 54-58 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Michigan (8:40 EST). It’s the 23-11 Florida State Seminoles against 31-7 Michigan in the Elite Eight on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Wolverines. FSU upset Gonzaga 75-60 on Thursday, holding the Bulldogs to just 33.9 percent shooting. Terance Mann led the way with 18 points, five boards, two assist and one block in the victory. The Seminoles enter the Elite Eight averaging 81.1 PPG, while conceding 73.7. The Wolverines average 73.8 PPG and they concede just 63.1. Michigan’s offense though was firing on all cylinders in its 99-72 destruction of Texas A&M on Thursday (I had the Wolverines in that one), another school which predicates itself on its tough defensive play. Michigan shot an unreal 61.9 percent from the floor in the victory, including a blistering 58.3 percent from range and I’m fully expecting the team to carry that confidence and momentum over here. Mhaummad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman led the way in the win with 24 points, five boards, seven assists and a steal. (Additional supporting ATS trends added shortly.) FSU has looked good on both ends of the court, but it runs into a “buzz saw” in Michigan right now. The Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the nation, and now their offense is firing on all cylinders as well. All signs point to a blowout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-18 | Hornets v. Mavs +1.5 | Top | 102-98 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:30 EST). I base my picks on many different things. I think this one sets up nicely for the Mavericks for a number of different reasons. The Hornets come off back-to-back wins, including a 140-79 victory over the Grizzlies in their last outing. Not only do I believe that Charlotte will come in complacent here after their epic blowout win, but I also expect it to get caught “looking ahead” to upcoming home games against the Knicks and Cavs. The Mavericks won’t be playing in the postseason, but they’ll be eager to break a four-game slide. Dallas has for the most part been a complete disappointment this year, but note that is has in fact done decently in this spot for bettors by going 12-7 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses and 10-6 ATS in its last 16 against good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest. Charlotte on the other hand is a poor 8-11 ATS this season after a win by ten points or more and only 13-20 ATS on the road. I’m banking on the home side doing just enough to secure the victory, play on the Mavericks. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-18 | Blackhawks v. Islanders -125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the New York Islanders (7:00 EST). Chicago comes to Long Island off a disheartening 5-2 home loss to Vancouver, while New York is off a 7-6 home setback to Tampa Bay. The Blackhawks come into this one having gone just 13-24 on the road, averaging 2.76 GPG and conceding 3.51 in those contests. Forsberg is expected to get the start in net tonight and he’s 9-19 with a 3.06 GAA on the year, including only 5-11 with a 3.63 GAA on the road. The Isles are 17-19 at home, averaging 3.53 GPG and conceding 3.78 in those games. Jaroslav Halak will get the call here and he’s 18-35 with a 3.27 GAA, including 11-15 with a 3.35 GAA at home. I’ll point out though that Chicago is just 5-10 (-5.4 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses, while New York is a solid 4-1 (+3.7 units) this season after playing three consecutive home games. Both teams have been horrible this year, but the Blackhawks have been an unmitigated disaster on the road. All things considered, I do definitely feel this is a fair price. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Kansas State +1 | Top | 78-62 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* ELITE 8 GAME OF THE YEAR is on Kansas State (6:05 EST). It’s the 31-5 Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. the 25-11 K-State Wildcats on Saturday night in the Elite Eight and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Kansas State. The Ramblers are on one of those “Cinderalla” runs right now after getting the better of Nevada 69-68 in the regional semifinal on Thursday. Marques Townes led the way in that one with 18 points, including the last second three-pointer to seal the deal. Loyola Illinois averages just 71.8 PPG, making up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 62.4. Kansas State averages 71.6 PPG and it concedes just 63.4. The Wildcats looked particularly impressive in their 61-58 win over Kentucky, led by 22 points and nine boards from Xavier Sneed, while Barry Brown added 13 points. Loyola Illinois has been the biggest surprise of The Tournament so far, but I think it’s set up for a big letdown here. Beating Nevada is no small feat, but K-State is playing at an entirely different level right now in my opinion, as its dominating win over Kentucky has me convinced. (Additional supporting ATS stats to be posted shortly.) I think Kansas State is the better overall team and I look for it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Texas Tech (9:55 EST). It’s No. 2 Purdue against No. 3 Texas Tech in the final game of the Sweet 16 on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the defensive minded Aggies. Purdue advanced to this point off wins against CS Fullerton and Butler, while Texas Tech beat Stephen F. Austin and Florida. The Red Raiders’ dynamic defense was on full display in their 69-66 win over the Gators on Saturday. Texas Tech would go on to shoot 44 percent from the floor, while holding Florida to just 39 percent. Keenan Evans led the way in the victory with 22 points, while Zhaire Smith added 18 points and nine boards. For the season Texas Tech averages 74.9 points and it concedes 64.6. The Boilermakers average 80.8 PPG and they concede 65.4. Purdue would hold on for a 76-73 win over Butler, but I think it’s going to come up short here against the Red Raiders’ relentless defense. Purdue lost the services of 7-foot center Isaac Haas in Round 2 to injury and its depth carried it in the win over the Bulldogs, but I have a hard time seeing the the Boilermakers maintaining that same drive against a Texas Tech team that’s simply firing on all cylinders right now. Vincent Edwards was a bright sot in the win over Butler with 20 points, while Carsen Edwards, the team’s leading scorer, was held to just 13. I’ll point out as well that Texas Tech has done well in this spot for bettors of late by going 7-3 ATS in its last ten following a SU victory, while Purdue has struggled in this position by going just 1-7-1 ATS in its last eight against a team with a wining percent above .600. The table is set for another outright upset, but in the end I’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the Red Raiders. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-18 | Heat +6 v. Thunder | Top | 99-105 | Push | 0 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Heat (8:00 EST). OKC comes in off disheartening 100-99 loss to Boston and I think it’s going to get caught flat footed here as well against another tough Eastern Conference opponent. The Heat come in with momentum as well after smashing the Knicks 119-98 in their most recent outing (their third straight victory.) Kelly Olynyk led the way with 22 points and 10 assists, while Wayne Ellington added 16 points. After its six game win streak came to a halt in such dramatic fashion last time out (the Thunder would lose to the Celtics on a late three by Marcus Morris), all signs point to a classic letdown for OKC in this spot as well. Russell Westbrook led the way in the losing cause with 27 points, eight boards and seven assists. The Heat don’t have big man Hassan Whiteside in the line-up, but Miami is shooting the ball well right now and I think they’ll keep this one competitive. Also note that the Heat are 22-13 ATS on the road this year and 19-11 ATS against clubs with winning records. And as good as the Thunder have looked at times this year, this is in fact a position in which they’ve struggled in for bettors by going a horrible 8-16 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and a brutal 15-20 ATS in front of the home town crowd. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but everything points to a “nail biter.” Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 103 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Villanova (7:35 EST). The 26-10 WVU Mountaineers get ready to battle the 32-4 Villanova Wildcats on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite. WVU got to this point after taking down Marshall 94-71, led by 28 points from Jevon Carter. Lamont West was a standout as well with 18 points and ten boards. The Mountaineers enter the Sweet 16 averaging 80.2 PPG. The Wildcats average 86.9 PPG (No. 1 in the country.) Villanova smashed Alabama 81-58 in its last outing, led by 23 points from Mikal Bridges and 18 points from Donte DiVencenzo. (I plan to update my analysis closer to game time with a few more stats, but the bulk of analysis is here) The Mountaineers did a great job in slowing down Murray State and Marshall, two schools which are also “offense oriented,” but clearly Villanova is on an entirely different level. WVU’s calling card is its tough defensive play, but I think it will struggle to contain the Wildcats’ dynamic offense, which gets the job done both on the inside and out. I’m expecting a solid cover from Villanova here. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas -4 | 76-80 | Push | 0 | 102 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Kansas (7:05 EST). It’s the ACC vs. the Big 12 in the Sweet 16 and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Jayhawks. Clemson got to this point off an 84-53 win over Auburn in the second round, while Kansas advanced with a tight 83-79 win over Seton Hall. The Tigers average only 73.8 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end of the floor by conceding just 65.5 PPG. Clemson smashed Auburn on both ends of the floor and it was led by Gabe DeVoe with 22 points. Kansas averages 81.4 PPG and it concedes 70.9. The Jayhawks shot 50.0 percent from the floor in their latest victory, including 42.9 percent from range. Malik Newman had 28 points in the victory, while Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk had 16. Clemson put on a show last time out, but it faces a much stiffer test this time around. I think the Tigers are poised for a letdown here. The Jayhawks hold the significant advantage on both ends of the floor and I look for their superior offense to be the difference at the end of the night. Lay the points with confidence, play on Kansas. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-18 | Clippers v. Pacers -3 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indiana Pacers (7:00 EST). LA broke a four-game slide with a 127-120 road win in Milwaukee on Wednesday, while Indiana fell 96-92 in New Orleans on Wednesday. The Clippers come into this one averaging 109.5 PPG and they concede 108.7. Tobias Harris averages 18.5 points and 5.6 boards, while Avery Bradley adds 14.3. DeAndre Jordan is the big man in the middle and he provides 12.3 points and 15.4 boards a night and he had 25 points and 25 boards in the victory over the Bucks. The Pacers average 105.6 PPG and they concede 104.2. Victor Oladipo posted 21points and eight boards in the loss to the Pelicans. From a trend based stand point, this one definitely favors the home side though, as note that LA has struggled in this spot for bettors by going 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest and just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU victory, while Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss in which it scored 93 points or less in. The Pacers still have a shot at home court advantage through the playoffs and they catch a Clippers team looking ahead to their road trip finale in Toronto. I like Indiana to defend home its home floor, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-18 | Nuggets v. Wizards -2 | 108-100 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (7:00 EST). The Nuggets snapped a two game slide with a 135-102 win at Chicago on Wednesday, while the Wizards’ two game win streak came to an end in Wednesday’s 98-90 loss in San Antonio. If recent history is any precedence though, then Washington has to be liking its chances tonight as it’s taken three straight in this series, including the first one this year 109-104 back on October 23rd. Denver comes into this one averaging 109.8 PPG and it concedes 108.4. Nikola Jokic leads the nightly charge with 17.5 points, 10.5 boards and six assists per game, while Garry Harris adds a team high 17.7 points. Paul Millsap led the way with 22 points, eight boards and five steals in the victory over the Bulls. Washington averages 107.3 PPG and it concedes 106. Bradley Beal is the leader with John Wall sidelined with injury and he averages 23.2 PPG, while Otto Porter Jr. adds 14.8 points, 6.5 boards and 1.6 steals per contest. I’ll point out that the Nuggets are already just 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest and 0-4 ATS in their last four following a straight up victory of more than ten points, while the Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 90 points or less in their previous outing. The Nuggets lost to Memphis and Miami before the win over the Bulls. Washington struggled against the red hot Spurs, but a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked. Lay the points, play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-18 | Canadiens v. Sabres +101 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buffalo Sabres (7:00 EST). The Habs enter off a 5-3 loss to the Pens on the road, while the Sabres come in off a 4-1 home loss to Arizona. Montreal starts Carey Price and Buffalo counters with either Chad Johnson or Linus Ullmark. Note that Montreal is just 9-28 on the road, averaging 2.19 goals and conceding 3.59 in those contests. Price gave up five goals last time out and he’s now 15-29 with a 3.03 GAA on the year, including only 4-17 with a 3.45 GAA on the road. Buffalo is 11-27 at home, averaging 2.26 goals and conceding 3.26 in those contests. Johnson is 8-15 with a 3.30 GAA, while Uilmark is 1-1 with a 2.40 GAA. I think home ice is the difference here between these two cellar dwellers. Ultimately I expect Price’s road struggles to continue and I look for whoever gets the start in Buffalo to do just enough to help secure the victory. Great price, play on the Sabres. Good luck…Larry |
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03-22-18 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -5.5 | Top | 75-60 | Loss | -107 | 81 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Gonzaga (10:05 EST). It’s No. 9 FSU taking on No. 4 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs. Florida State upset No. 1 Xavier 75-70 on Sunday and suffice it to say, I think it’s set up for a letdown here. Gonzaga would go on to take down Ohio State 90-84 in its second round matchup on Saturday. Florida State averages 81.1 and it concedes 73.7. Braian Angola had 15 points in the upset victory over Xavier as the Seminoles would go on to hit 8 of 23 from range and shoot 43.6 percent overall. The Bulldogs average 84.2 PPG and they concede just 67.5. Zach Norvell Jr. had 28 points in the victory over Ohio State. Gonzaga led at the half in that one by 11 points, but it actually trailed 67-62 with 6:02 left to play in the game, before then going on a 16-2 run. I’ll point out that Florida State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU victory, while Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning SU records. The Bulldogs let their foot off the gas against the Ducks, but Gonzaga won’t make the same mistake twice. While these teams are pretty evenly matched on the offensive end, it’s the Bulldogs’ defensive prowess which tips the scales in their favor in this matchup. Lay the points, play on Gonzaga. Good luck…Larry |
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03-22-18 | Pistons +12.5 v. Rockets | Top | 96-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Pistons (8:05 EST). I don’t normally play underdogs of this size, but I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on hungry Detroit. The Rockets are arguably the best team in the league this year. After a tough loss in Toronto Houston has reeled off six straight victories, including a tight 115-111 win at Portland last time out. This is the opener of an extended home stretch for the Rockets, with upcoming games against Detroit tonight, followed by lightweights New Orleans, Atlanta, Chicago and Phoenix. After three straight road wins, I do absolutely feel that this sets up as a letdown spot for the Rockets vs. their non-conference opponent this evening. The Pistons on the other hand are in a dog-fight right now for a playoff spot in the East, but they do come into this one with momentum after back-to-back road victories, most recently downing the Suns 115-88 on Tuesday. Note that Detroit is 5-2 ATS already this year after playing three consecutive road games, while Houston is just 10-15 ATS in non-conference contests this season. Sure the Pistons’ recent victories have been over the bottom feeders in the West, but I still think they’re going to keep this one competitive. The Rockets should still win this one straight up, but the conditions are definitely right for a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -3 | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 78 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Michigan (7:35 EST). It’s the SEC vs. the Big Ten in this Sweet 16 matchup and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Wolverines. Texas A&M advanced with a stunning 86-65 win over No. 2 UNC on Sunday and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here after one of the program’s biggest ever victories. Michigan got to this point by ousting No. 6 Houston 64-63 on Saturday night by the help of a last second buzzer beater. Texas A&M averages 75.3 PPG and it concedes 69.6. The Aggies shot 51.7 percent from the floor in the win over the Tar Heels and they won the rebound battle 50-36. TJ Starks would lead the charge with 21 points. Michigan averages 73.8 PPG and it concedes 63.1. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman would post 12 points in the Wolverines one-point second round victory. I’ll point out though that the Aggies are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after scoring 80 points or more in their previous game in which they were the underdog, while the Wolverines are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 65 points or less in their previous outing. Michigan found a way to get the job done last time out despite not being close to its best. I don’t expect that to happen twice and while A&M found a way to slow down the high-flying Tar Heels, the Wolverines would love nothing more than to slow this one down and exert their will slowly. All signs point to a rout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-22-18 | Oilers -113 v. Senators | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Edmonton Oilers (7:35 EST). Edmonton has won three of its last five games after a victory over Carolina last time out. This is the end of a four-game trip for the Oilers and I think they’ll build off their latest 7-3 win over the Hurricanes and end it on a high-note. Note that all seven goals in the Oilers’ most recent victory came from seven different players. More than anything though I’m basing this selection on the suddenly improved play of Edmonton net minder CamTalbot, who has now won five of his last six games, allowing just 11 goals in that span. The Senators won three straight, but they come into this one having lost their last two, most recently getting smoked 7-2 at home to Florida. Goaltender Craig Anderson is 21-21-6 and he’d let in all seven goals last time out. I’ll point out as well that Edmonton has done decently in this spot of late by going 7-3 in its last ten road games against teams with a losing home record, while Ottawa is a dismal 9-24 in its last 33 against teams with losing records. Ottawa is dealing with significant injury issues right now (Stone) and I look for the visitors to take advantage. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on Edmonton. Good luck…Larry |
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03-21-18 | Wizards +5 v. Spurs | Top | 90-98 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Washington Wizards (9:30 EST). Washington comes to town with momentum after two straight wins. Bradley Beal had 19 points and big man Marcin Gortat added 18 in the Wizards most recent 109-102 victory at home over the Pacers. This game means a lot to the Wizards still, as they’re in a battle for home court advantage in the Eastern Conference at 40-30 and sitting just a half-game back of the Pacers for the No. 4 seed. San Antonio has been playing a lot better, winner of four straight and coming off an impressive 89-75 win at home over the Warriors. LaMarcus Aldridge led the way in that one with 33 points and 12 boards. The Spurs sit just one game back of OKC for home court advantage in the playoffs, but with a tough game at home against Utah on Friday, followed by an extended Eastern road swing, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the home side finally having a letdown here against its non-conference opponent. And that’s exactly what I’m banking on happening. Note as well that Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest, while San Antonio is just 14-19 ATS this season against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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03-21-18 | Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 92-84 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Western Kentucky (8:00 EST). WKU is off an upset 79-75 road win over USC and I believe the Hilltoppers come in “under the radar” here as well. OKS enters off a 71-65 home win over Stanford. Western Kentucky averages 78.4 PPG and it concedes 70.0. The Hilltoppers shot 53.6 percent from the floor in their win over the Trojans, while also hitting 16 of 17 free throw attempts. Justin Johnson led the way with 23 points, while Dwight Coleby added 13. Note that WKU is 8-5 on the road this season, averring 79.5 points and conceding 76.5 in those contests. OKS averages 76.4 PPG and it concedes 72.7 (is better at home with 79.2 and 69.6 respectively.) The Cowboys looked decent defensively against the Cardinal, but overall that’s been their weak point this year. Oklahoma Stats is known for its offense, but note though that it shot just 35.7 percent from the floor in the win over Stanford. Jeffrey Carroll led the way in the victory with 26 points. I’ll point out as well that WKU is 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this year, while OKS is just 2-4 ATS in the same position. OKS is 15-5 at home this season, but the Hilltoppers won’t be going down without a fight. These teams are very evenly matched and I believe this one is going to be decided by whichever one has its hands on the ball last. And because of that, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-21-18 | Coyotes v. Sabres -120 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* Situational Stunner on the Buffalo Sabres (7:00 EST). The Coyotes look poised for a letdown here after a 5-2 home win over the Flames, while the Sabres will be hungry for a victory after a humbling 4-0 home defeat to the Predators. Arizona averages just 2.40 GPG and it concedes 3.13. The Coyotes are only 9-24 on the road and have averaged only 2.39 goals in those contests, while conceding 3.42. Netminder Antti Raanta is 16-22 on the year with a 2.41 GAA, including 6-8 with a 2.70 GAA on the road. Buffalo averages 2.38 GPG and it concedes 3.25. The Sabres are just 11-26 at home, averaging 2.30 goals and conceding 3.24 in those contests. Goaltender Chad Johnson is 8-14 with a 3.27 GAA. I’ll point out though that the Coyotes are a terrible 13-38 in their last 51 after allowing two goals or less in their previous contest, while the Sabres are 6-0 in their last six following a loss by three or more goals. This is a tough road trip for the Coyotes. Both teams have been playing a bit better of late, but I think the conditions favor the home side. And there’s no question that the price is right as well. Play on Buffalo. Good luck…Larry |
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03-21-18 | Raptors v. Cavs -1 | 129-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:00 EST). Toronto comes in off a much-harder than expected 93-86 win at Orlando just last night and suffice it to say, I’m definitely expecting a classic “letdown” from the visitors here. The Raptors annihilated the Cavaliers 133-99 in mid January and now it’s payback time for LeBron James and company. The Cavs come in with some momentum as well as they’ve won two straight, most recently a 124-117 home victory against Milwaukee on Monday. The Raptors average 112.5 PPG and they concede 103.9. DeMar DeRozan averages 23.7 points and 5.1 assists per night, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.4 points, 5.6 boards and 6.7 assists per game. The Cavaliers average 110.5 PPG and they concede 110.2. James averages 27.3 points, 8.7 boards and nine assists per game, while Kevin Love adds 17.9 points and 9.3 boards a night. With a game at home against the lowly Nets on Friday, I think the Raptors finally have a letdown here. This is a big game for Cleveland and I expect James to rally the troops and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the Cavaliers. Good luck…Larry |
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03-20-18 | Clippers v. Wolves UNDER 227 | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Clippers/Wolves (8:00 EST). These two Western Conference teams are banged up and injured and each is playing for a spot in the postseason. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect this total to stay well below the posted number. The Clippers will be desperate here after three straight losses, most recently a 122-109 setback at home to Portland on Sunday. The Wolves can empathize as they’ve lost two straight, most recently a 129-120 setback at home to the Rockets. LA plays with revenge here as Minnesota has taken five straight in the series, including all three so far this year (including a high-scoring 126-118 road win in the latest matchup back on January 22nd.) The Clippers average 109.3 PPG and they concede 108.3. DeAndre Jordan puts up 12 points and 15.4 boards per game, while Lou Williams adds 23 points and 5.3 assists per night. Williams was a bright spot in LA’s latest loss with 30 points off the bench. The Wolves average 109.8 PPG and they concede 107.6. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.7 points and 12.2 boards per game, but it was Jeff Teague that led the way in a losing cause against Houston with 23 points and 11 assists. These teams are similar in that neither plays a lick of defense and each is always looking to push the pace. That’s why it’s important to note that LA has in fact seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 21 after three or more consecutive losses, while Minnesota has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 27 when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 220. I’m expecting an all out war from start to finish and for this total to sneak below the posted number once the final horn blares. Good luck…Larry |
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03-20-18 | Stars v. Capitals -144 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Capitals (7:00 EST). Dallas comes to the nation’s capital off a 4-2 road loss in Winnipeg, while Washington most recently fell 6-3 in Philadelphia. Dallas is 14-22 on the road, averaging 2.50 goals and conceding 2.92 in those contests. Kari Lehtonen gave up three goals on 20 shots in the latest loss and he’s now 12-13 with a 2.46 GAA. Washington is 25-11 at home, averaging 3.33 goals and conceding 2.42 in those contests. Braden Holtby had the last game off, but he’s back in net here and looking to improve upon his 30-19, 3.03 GAA season record, including a solid 19-8, 2.36 GAA mark at home. I’ll point out that Dallas is just 8-20 in its last 28 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Washington is 16-5 in its last 21 after allowing five goals or more in its previous outing. The Stars have struggled on the road this year and now they face perhaps the best home team in the entire league, one which has its No. 1 goaltender back in net and which is also out to atone for a lacklustre performance in its previous outing. All things considered, I feel this price could in fact be a lot larger, swinging the value onto the home side. Lay the price, play on the Capitals. Good luck…Larry |
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03-20-18 | Penn State v. Marquette | Top | 85-80 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Penn State (7:00 EST). Penn State got 24 points from Tony Carr to beat Notre Dame on the road on Saturday and I think that the Nittany Lions are going to carry that momentum over here. Penn State was led by 18 points and nine boards from Josh Reaves, while Shep Garner added 15 points in the win over the Irish. The Nittany Lions got the job done on the defensive end of the floor though, holding ND to just 38.3 percent shooting and only 4 of 22 from range. For the season Penn State averages 74.2 PPG and it concedes just 66.5. Marquette averages 81.4 PPG, but it needs to push the pace as it concedes an average of 78.3. The Golden Eagles shot 12 of 26 from range in the win over the Ducks and they hit 57.6 percent of their shots from the floor overall. Andrew Rowsey led the way with 29 points and nine assists. I’ll point out though that Penn State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight on the road, while Marquette is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight following an ATS victory and just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. The Nittany Lions’ defense is firing on all cylinders and they’re playing better offensively as well. The Golden Eagles can’t stop anybody and I have a hard time seeing them keeping pace down the stretch. Grab the points, play on Penn State. Good luck…Larry |
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03-19-18 | Washington v. St. Mary's -10.5 | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -102 | 36 h 49 m | Show |
The third 10* PEFECT STORM pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Saint Mary’s (11:00 ET). Washington enters the second round of the NIT off a 77-74 win over Boise State, while Saint Mary’s crushed Southeastern Louisiana 89-45 at home. Washington averages 74.4 PPG and it concedes 72.6. The Huskies shot 47.4 percent against Boise State and they were led by 25 points from Jaylen Nowell. The Huskies have been better at home that on the road, as they’ve averages just 69.4 points and concede 73.2 away from friendly confines this season. Saint Mary’s averages 77.3 PPG and it concedes just 63.9. Note that it’s been even better at home though by averaging 78.3 points and conceding just 59.8. The Gaels shot a blistering 59.3 percent in their opening round win and I simply can’t see the Huskies keeping pace down the stretch. I’ll point out as well that Washington is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while St. Mary’s is 4-1 ATS in its last five in the same position. The Huskies had a decent season, but the Gaels present a very difficult matchup here. I think Saint Mary’s continues to play with a chip on its shoulder as it looks to run up this score once again. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-19-18 | LSU +4.5 v. Utah | 71-95 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 49 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on LSU (9:00 EST). It’s No. 2 seed Utah hosting No. 3 seed LSU in the second round of the NIT on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the dog. LSU was dropped early in the SEC Tournament, but it answered with an 84-76 victory over Louisiana Lafayette to open the NIT at home. The Tigers looked sharp offensively by hitting 52.7 percent of their shots and I believe they carry that momentum over here. Duop Reath was a standout in the victory with 26 points and 11 boards. Utah beat UC Davis 69-59 in the opening round, needing to outscore UCD 22-11 in the final quarter to secure the 10-point win. Justin Bibbins hit all eight free throws and finished with 21 points and six boards. I’ll point out though that LSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games, while Utah is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games and only 2-5-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU loss. LSU is a big team and it won’t be intimidated here. While the outright upset isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Play on LSU. Good luck…Larry |
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03-19-18 | Panthers -140 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Florida Panthers (7:30 EST). Florida comes to town angry off a 4-2 home loss to Edmonton, while Montreal enters off another humbling 4-0 defeat to Toronto. The Panthers have been better at home than on the road, but I think they’ll bounce back after their latest defeat. Overall Florida averages 3.00 GPG and it concedes 3.09. Goaltender Roberto Luongo is 14-11 with a 2.63 GAA, including 4-6 with a 2.52 GAA on the road. Now five points out of the eighth spot in the East, clearly Florida can ill afford to “look past” this golden opportunity this evening. Montreal averages 2.50 GPG and it concedes 3.11. Netminder Antti Niemi is just 5-11 with a 3.26 GAA this year and only 1-5 with a 3.03 GAA lifetime against Florida. I’ll point out as well that the Panthers are 14-3 in their last 17 against teams with losing records (also 9-2 in their last 11 against Eastern Conference opponents), while Montreal is just 20-45 in its last 65 against clubs with winning records (and only 6-21 in its last 27 against the Eastern Conference.) Montreal has nothing to play for and I don’t think the motivation of “spoiler” comes into play here whatsoever. Florida however is desperate and I expect it to play like that tonight. All things considered I do indeed feel this is a great price. Play on the Panthers. Good luck…Larry |
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03-19-18 | Nuggets v. Heat -2 | Top | 141-149 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Miami Heat (7:35 EST). Denver is stumbling down the stretch as it enters off a poor 101-94 road defeat at Memphis on Saturday to kick off its seven game road trip. Miami returns home off a 1-2 road trip, salvaging a victory in the final game 92-91 over the Lakers on Friday. Note that this is a double revenge game for the Heat, including losing the first matchup 95-94 this season in Denver back on November 3rd. The Nuggets average 109 PPG and they concede 107.9. Big man Nikola Jokic had 17 points and 12 boards in a losing cause last time out. Miami averages 102.5 PPG and it concedes 102.5 as well. Hassan Whiteside averages 14.3 points and 11.8 boards per night, while Goran Dragic adds 17.6 points and 4.8 boards a game. I’ll point out as well that Denver has struggled in this position for bettors of late, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a straight up loss and just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Miami has done well in this position by going 4-0 ATS in its last four at home and 6-1-2 ATS in its last nine following an ATS victory. Denver is just 11-22 on the road and I think the Heat take advantage here and avenge the earlier setback. Lay the points, play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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03-19-18 | Bulls v. Knicks UNDER 219 | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Errors is on the under Bulls/Knicks (7:35 EST). Neither team has anything to play for and I don’t believe they’ll be particularly motivated either. In a contest like that, I believe the under offers great value. Chicago has alternated wins and losses over its last eight games, most recently falling 114-109 at home to Cleveland, while New York broke a nine-game slide with a 124-101 win at home over Charlotte on Saturday. Chicago has taken all three meetings between the clubs this year, including a high-scoring 122-119 double OT victory here in the last matchup on January 10th. Chicago comes in averaging 103.7 PPG and it concedes 109.5. Lauri Markkanen averages 14.9 points and 7.6 boards per game, while Robin Lopez adds 12 points and 4.5 boards a night. It was Denzel Valentine who shone in a losing cause to the Cavs though with 34 points, seven boards and six assists (Markkanen sat that game out though and he’s questionable for tonight as well. Same for Zach LaVine.) New York averages 104.3 PPG and it concedes 107.7. Tim Hardaway Jr. had 25 points in the win over Charlotte. With big man Kristaps Porzingis sidelined with injury for the rest of the year, the Knicks are simply playing out the rest of their season at this point. I’ll point out that Chicago has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 28 already this year against clubs with losing records, while New York has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of five already this season after playing three connective home games. Both teams are dealing with significant injuries right now and each has more questions than answers. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-19-18 | Stanford +7.5 v. Oklahoma State | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 32 h 49 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Stanford (7:00 EST). It’s the No. 3 Stanford Cardinal against the No. 2 Oklahoma State Cowboys in the second round of the NIT on Monday and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the dog. Stanford got by BYU 86-83 in its first round win, while OKS got the better of FGCU 80-68. The Cardinal average 76.2 PPG and they concede 75. Stanford shot 44 percent from the floor against BYU, but also held it to just 44 percent shooting. They also won the rebound battle 47-37. Reid Travis led the way with 25 points and 14 rebounds. Stanford comes in having won three of its last four. OKS averages 76.5 PPG and it concedes 72.9. The Cowboys have won four of their last five, but they looked pretty sloppy in the win over FGCU, converting only 35 percent of their shots. Jeffrey Carroll would go just 3 of 11 from the field, but he’d finish with a team-high 18 points. I’ll point out though that Stanford has done well in this spot for bettors this season by going 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a SU victory and 4-1 ATS in its last five against schools with winning records, while OKS has struggled in this position by going just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 following a SU win. I think Stanford and the points is the way to go here. The Cardinal are averaging over 80 points over their last eight games, which doesn’t bode well for this mediocre Cowboys’ defense (note that OKS’s three point defense ranks 296th in the country!) Everything points to a “nail biter,” so grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-18 | Nevada v. Cincinnati -7 | 75-73 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT is on Cincinnati (6:10 EST). Cincinnati got by Georgia State 68-53 in its opening round and I think the defensive minded Bearcats will wear down Nevada here as well. The Wolfpack come in off an exhausting 87-83 OT win over Texas on Friday and I think they suffer a letdown here. Nevada had to rally from a four-point deficit as well in the extra period, which doesn’t bode well facing this swarming Bearcats’ defense. Jarron Cumberland had 27 points and 11 boards in Cincinnati’s win over Georgia State. The Bearcats were relentless on the boards, winning the battle 46-26. I’ll point out as well that Nevada is just 1-3 ATS this year as the underdog, while Cincinnati is a solid 17-13 ATS as the favorite. I think the Bearcats’ are the much more confident team and as I mentioned above, I believe their elite level defensive play will ultimately prove to be too much for the Wolfpack to handle down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-18 | Texas A&M v. North Carolina -6 | Top | 86-65 | Loss | -103 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina (5:15 EST). Texas A&M advanced to this point with a 73-69 victory over Providence, while UNC advanced with an 84-66 win over Lipscomb. While the Aggies’ have looked sharp defensively, they face their stiffest test to date in facing the Tar Heels’ high octane offense. Texas A&M averages 74.9 PPG and it concedes 69.8. The Aggies held the Friars to 43.5 percent shooting and they were led by Admon Gilder with 18 points. UNC averages 82 PPG and it concedes 72.9. The Tar Heels shot 51.7 percent in their opening round victory, while holding the Bison to just 35.9 percent. Kenny Williams led the charge with 18 points, while Theo Pinson added 15 points and ten boards. I’ll point out that Texas A&M is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 72 points or more in its previous contest, while UNC is 18-11 ATS in its last 29 tournament games. Beating the Friars is one thing, but the Tar Heels present an entirely different and much more difficult problem. UNC is playing at an elite level across the board right now and I can’t see Texas A&M keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points with confidence, play on North Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-18 | Hurricanes v. Islanders -109 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Islanders (5:00 EST). Carolina is off a disheartening 4-2 loss at home to Philadelphia just last night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting another letdown here as well. The Isles return home off a 6-3 road loss in the nation’s capital. Carolina is a terrible 14-21 on the road, averaging 2.74 goals in those games and conceding 3.29. Goaltender Scott Darling is 11-24 with a 3.08 GAA this year, including only 5-15 with a 3.16 GAA on the road. Note that over their last 13 games the Canes have allowed an average of 3.76 goals. New York is 16-17 at home, averaging 3.45 goals and conceding 3.76 in those contests. Jaroslav Halak is 18-29 with a 3.26 GAA, including 11-13 with a 3.34 GAA at home. I’ll point out that Carolina has done terribly in this spot all year for bettors by going just 15-23 (-10.1 units) in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while New York has done decently in this position by going 13-9 (+5.2 units) this season following a divisional contest. The Isles will look to take advantage of a struggling and tired Carolina team. This one has blowout written all over it and in my professional opinion, it represents the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Islanders. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-18 | Oregon v. Marquette -5 | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Marquette (4:30 EST). No. 2 Marquette gets ready to battle No. 3 Oregon on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Golden Eagles. Oregon advanced by knocking off Rider 99-86 in the opening round. The Ducks would go on to hit 58.9 percent from the floor and got 23 points from Victor Bailey Jr. While Oregon managed to cover the 11-point spread in that one, sloppy defensive play like that simply won’t get it done against Marquette today. Marquette opened its Tournament journey with a solid 67-60 win over a solid Harvard Crimson team. The Golden Eagles hit 43.8 percent from the floor, but they’d go 7 of 16 from range. Keep your eyes on Markus Howard today, as he led the way in the first round victory with 22 points, while also going on to make all nine of his free throw attempts. I’ll point out that Oregon is just 5-7 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more in its previous outing, while Marquette is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. I don’t think Oregon is going to be able to slow down Howard. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-18 | Syracuse v. Michigan State -8 | 55-53 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Michigan State (2:40 EST). It’s No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 11 Syracuse in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Spartans. Syracuse upset TCU 57-52 on Friday, while MSU held on for the 82-78 win over Bucknell. The Orange come into this one averaging just 67 PPG, but they make up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 63.9. Tyus Battle was just 3 of 12 for seven points in the win over TCU. Oshae Brissett led the way with 23 points, after posing 23 in the First Four win over Arizona State on Wednesday. Syracuse comes in tired, while Michigan State likely comes in a bit concerned here after its closer than expected battle against Bucknell. MSU averages 81 PPG and it concedes 65.2. Note that Michigan State posted a 53 percent shooting percentage in the win over Bucknell, while holding it to just 41.8 percent. Miles Bridges would go on to posting 29 points and he’s now scored at least 17 in three straight games. I’ll point out as well that Syracuse is just 5-6 ATS as the underdog this year, while Michigan State is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to nine points. I think the Spartans’ offense finally solves the Orange’s tough defensive zone. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-18 | Thunder v. Raptors UNDER 216.5 | Top | 132-125 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* O/U ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on the under OKC/TO (1:05 EST). OKC won its fifth in a row with a 121-113 effort at home over the Clippers on Friday and suffice it to say, I think the Thunder are in store for a bit of a letdown here. Toronto has won 11 straight and 18 of 19 after a much tougher than expected 122-115 OT victory at home over the lowly Mavericks in its most recent action. And now another Western Conference opponent comes to town, but this time a much more dangerous one. OKC averages 107.1 PPG and it concedes just 103.8. Russell Westbrook leads the nightly charge with 25.2 points, 9.7 boards, 10.2 assists and 1.78 steals per game, while Paul George adds 21.8 points, 5.6 boards and 2.04 steals per game. It was Corey Brewer though who came off the bench to lead everyone in the Thunders’ most recent victory with 22 points. Toronto averages 112.3 PPG and it concedes 103.5. DeMar DeRozan leads the team with 23.7 points and 5.1 assiss per night and he had 29 points and six assists in the win over Dallas. I’ll point out though that OKC has seen the total go under the number in four of its last six after scoring 120 points or more in its previous contest, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after winning in OT in its previous game in which its opponent scored 115 points or more. I’m expecting a slower-paced defensive affair. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-18 | Butler v. Purdue -3.5 | 73-76 | Loss | -101 | 26 h 1 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Purdue (12:10 EST). No. 2 seed Purdue gets ready to battle No. 10 Seed Butler in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Boilermakers. Butler comes in off a 79-62 win over Arkansas, while Purdue smashed CS Fullerton 74-48. Note that when these teams played in December, it was the Boilermakers that scored the relatively simple 82-67 road win and suffice it to say, I believe everything points to a repeat performance here. The Bulldogs average 79.1 PPG and they concede 72.5. Butler held Arkansas to 35 percent shooting and leading scorer Kelan Martin was a standout with 27 points. The Boilermakers average 80.9 PPG and they concede just 65.1. In the win over CS Fullerton, Purdue would hold it to only 36 percent shooting. Isaac Haas was injured and he’ll miss the rest of the tournament, but I look for Carsen Edwards to step up here and take command (Edwards leads the nightly charge with 18.4 PPG.) I’ll point out as well that Butler is just 4-9 ATS this year against good offensive teams which average 77plus points per contest, while Purdue is 7-2 ATS this season in the same position. The loss of Haas is significant in the long run I believe, but in the short-term I fully expect the high-powered Boilermakers to rally and find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Lay the points, play on Purdue. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-18 | Pistons +9 v. Blazers | Top | 87-100 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Pistons (10:05 EST). Portland looks poised for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion after 11 straight victories. Detroit sits 5.5 games back in the Eastern conference playoff race after losing six of its last seven. Most recently the Pistons fell 120-113 at Denver on Thursday. Detroit has games at Sacramento and Phoenix upcoming, but clearly the team can leave nothing to chance as it desperately tries to run down the final playoff spot. Blake Griffin was a bright spot in the most recent setback with 26 points. Portland comes in off a 113-105 win over Cleveland and it’s now scored 114.4 points over its last five games on average. CJ McCollum led the way offensively against the Cavs with 29 points. With a game tomorrow night at the Clippers, there’s no doubt though that this one sets up as not only a “letdown” spot for the over achieving home side, but also a “look ahead” position as well. Detroit is hungry and desperate and I look for it to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-18 | Ohio State v. Gonzaga -3 | Top | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* NCAA 2ND RND GAME OF THE YEAR is on Gonzaga (7:45 EST). No. 5 Ohio State gets ready to battle No. 4 Gonzaga with a ticket to the Sweet 16 on the line and for a number of different reasons, I think this on favors the Bulldogs. The Buckeyes managed an 81-73 win over South Dakota State in its first round matchup on Thursday, while Gonzaga also had a much closer than expected battle against UNC Greensboro, eventually pulling way for the 68-64 win. These teams played in the PK-80 Invitational on November 23rd 2017 and Gonzaga would smash Ohio State 86-59. Ohio State averages 75.8 PPG and it concedes 66.7. Keita Bates-Diop had 24 points and 12 boards in the victory over South Dakota State. Gonzaga averages 84.5 PPG and it concedes just 67.1. Jonathan Wiliams led the charge with 19 points and 13 boards in the win over UNC Greensboro. Note that Williams leads the team with an averages of 13.5 points and 8.3 boards per game. I’ll point out as well that Ohio State is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games, while Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick. The Bulldogs still have several key players from last year’s team which contributed to the title run. The Buckeyes seem thin when Bates-Diop is not on the floor or if he’s in foul trouble. This one has all the makings of a lop-sided blowout. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-18 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5 | 75-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* TOP TV PLAY FOR THE WEEKEND is on Kentucky (5:15 EST). The No. 13 Buffalo Bulls get ready to battle the No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite. The Bulls shocked No. 4 seed Arizona 89-68 on Thursday, while Kentucky would hold on for a 78-73 victory over Davidson on the same night. Buffalo comes into this one averaging 84.8 PPG and conceding 75.9. Wes Clark led the Bulls with 25 points and seven assists in the win over Arizona. CJ Massinburg leads the nightly charge though with an average of 16.9 points and 7.4 boards. Kentucky enters this one averaging 76.7 PPG and it concedes 70.2. Kevin Knox had 25 points in the victory over Davidson and leads the team overall with 15.6 points and 5.4 boards per game. Buffalo can’t be taken lightly here, but I don’t think it has an answer for Knox. Also note that the Bulls are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off an upset win as a five points or larger underdog, while Kentucky is a superb 11-6 ATS in its last 17 when playing on one or less days rest. I think the Bulls have a letdown here after their big upset victory and I look for tournament experienced Kentucky to step up and take advantage. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-18 | Devils v. Kings -148 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -148 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* NHL Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Kings (4:05 EST). New Jersey comes in off a highly satisfying 8-3 road win at Las Vegas, while LA enters off a 4-1 home victory over Detroit. The Devils are expected to send Keith Kinkaid to the net, while the home side will counter with Jonathan Quick. New Jersey is 18-17 on the road, averaging 3.06 GPG and conceding 3.09 in those contests. Kinkaid is 18-11 with a 2.95 GAA overall and 11-8 with a 3.15 GAA on the road. LA is 19-16 at home, averaging 2.89 goals and conceding 2.43 in those games. Quick stopped 20 of 21 shots in the win over the Wings to improve to 28-27 with a 2.41 GAA overall this season, including 14-14 with a 2.27 GAA at home. I’ll point out though that New Jersey is just 24-31 (-5.6 units) in its last 55 after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while LA is 19-14 (+6.3 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and 14-9 (+3.7 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game. I think the Devils come out flat here after they avenged an earlier loss to Vegas, while LA builds off its latest home victory and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-18 | Rhode Island v. Duke -9.5 | 62-87 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Duke (2:40 EST). It’s No. 7 Rhode Island against No. 2 Duke in the second round of The Big Dance and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the Blue Devils. Rhode Island comes in off an 83-78 upset win over No. 10 Oklahoma and suffice it to say, I think the Rams are set up for a letdown here. Rhode Island only shot 39 percent, while holding the Sooners to 42 percent. EC Matthews would lead the way with 13 points. Note that the Rams average 76.4 PPG and they concede 68.2. The Blue Devils average 85.1 PPG and they concede just 69.6. Duke smashed Iona 89-67 in the first round led by 22 points and seven boards from Marvin Bagley III. I’ll point out as well that Rhode Island is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and only 1-4 ATS following a SU victory, while Duke is a solid 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs. Duke is playing at an elite level defensively right now, holding teams to just 32 percent from range. The Rams are coming off a horrible shooting game last time out and I can’t see this team keeping pace with the high-flying Blue Devils down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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