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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-21-17 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +7.5 | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:05 EST). While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up to what will be a highly focused and prepared home side. Besides, the Warriors come to town off a satisfying and harder than expected 128-120 win at New Orleans just last night. Note that Golden State has been bad in this spot for bettors over the last few years as well, going just 14-19 ATS in its last 33 after allowing 115 points or more. Golden State was pretty good in the second game of back-to-backs last year, but the Grizzlies are a tough home team. In its win over the Pelicans most recently, Memphis would go on to force 18 turnovers. Mike Conley went on to post 27 points. Additionally note that the Grizzlies have played well against the tough Pacific division, going 4-1 ATS in their last five against it. I think the Memphis defense keeps the home side competitive late, so grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the over Yankees/Astros (8:00 EST). It’s all come down to this. Yanks’ veteran CC Sabathia is ready to battle Astros’ journeyman Charlie Morton for the right to advance to the World Series. Sabathia was great in Game 3, going six shutout innings, a contest that the Yanks won 8-1. So far the big southpaw has allowed six runs over 15.2 innings in the postseason. Keep your eyes on Yanks’ slugger Aaron Judge, who hit another home run in Game 6 and who has now posted three dingers with seven RBI’s over his last four games. New York’s Chase Headly is also having a great series, he’s 7 of 14 with an RBI and is now batting .259 in the playoffs. Morton threw opposite Sabathia in Game 3 and was terrible, giving up seven runs over 3.2 innings. Morton struggled against New York in the regular season as well, allowing four runs over 5.2 innings of work. You’ll want to track Astros’ slugger Jose Altuve today as well, as he was 2 for 4 with a home run and three RBI’s in Game 6. Houston has to be feeling pretty confident here, as it’s 5-0 in five home playoff contests thus far. I’ll point out as well that Houston has seen the total go over the number in 27 of 45 against left-handed starters this year, while New York has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last six against right-handed starters. I believe these potent starting line-ups will be the main overall story in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | 76ers v. Raptors -9 | 94-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:35 EST). I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. Despite finishing among the best in the East the last few years, I think that the Raptors are being severely undervalued in this spot. Last season the Raptors were tenth in scoring with 106.9 per contest, while eighth on the defensive side in conceding 102.6. The 76ers were one of the worst teams in the league last year, but they should be vastly improved this season with a young core of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz. The sky is the limit for this young Philadelphia team, but clearly it’s going to take more time for it to reach its full potential. With Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan leading the show in Toronto though, the time is NOW for the Raptors. Note that Jonas Valanciunas had 23 points and 15 boards in his team’s 117-100 win over the visiting Bulls on Opening night. Embiid is out for this one, as the 76ers work him back into game shape after sitting out most of last season with injury, meaning that Valanciunas has a major advantage tonight. I’m banking on Toronto’s depth to be too much for the younger 76ers to handle down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | Maple Leafs v. Senators +102 | 3-6 | Win | 102 | 23 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Ottawa Senators (7:05 EST). If you believe the media in Toronto, you’d think that the Leafs have already won the Stanley Cup. There’s no doubt that Toronto has looked great in the early going, but I think the Leafs finally stumble here against the determined Senators. Toronto most recently beat Detroit 6-3, while Ottawa is off a 5-4 loss to New Jersey in OT. The Leafs are currently ranked No. 1 in the league in scoring at 4.86 GPG. Clearly this level is not sustainable though and I think we can start to see some “correction” happening sooner, rather than later. Defensively Toronto lacks, allowing 3.14 GPG. Ottawa has also been good offensively, so far averaging 3.29 GPG. The Senators though have been even better defensively, ranked third overall in conceding just 2.29 GPG. I’ll point out as well that the Leafs have struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 7-15 in their last 22 road games against a team with a winning percentage of .400 or less, while the Sens have excelled in this position by going 35-29 (+8.2 units) in their last 54 after allowing four goals or more in their previous contest. After back-to-back home losses, I like the Senators to bounce back here behind strong goaltending from Craig Anderson (who is 13-9 in his career against the Leafs) and I look for Toronto to finally stumble after a great start to the 2017/18 campaign. Play on Ottawa. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | SMU v. Cincinnati +8.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 15 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Cincinnati (4:00 EST). The 4-2 SMU Mustangs are in Cincinnati to take on the 2-5 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the home side. I simply think that Cincinnati will be by far the more “desperate” team this afternoon as it looks to break a four-game slide, most recently falling to USF. SMU opened the year 4-1, but looks primed for another letdown here after falling at Houston two weeks ago. SMU is coming off its bye, so I think it’s going to be caught a little “flat footed.” In the loss to the Cougars, QB Ben Hicks was picked off twice. Hicks though has been solid overall with 1,672 yards, 16 TD’s and five INT’s. Bearcats’ QB Hayden Moore was 16 of 28 for 147 yards and an INT last week. So far Moore has 1,522 yards, ten TD’s and six INT’s. Moore suffered a minor injury and if he can’t go, then Ross Trail will get the call. Whoever gets the call though, I absolutely believe this one favors the home side, as note that SMU is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after playing a conference game, while Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog of 3.5 to ten points. Am I recommending to you to “sprinkle a little” on the money line? I’m not. I simply feel that the overall situation favors the hungry home side and combined with these strong trends, it does indeed make the Bearcats the correct call in this one. Play on Cincinnati. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | Indiana +7.5 v. Michigan State | 9-17 | Loss | -115 | 142 h 42 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Indiana (3:30 EST). The 3-3 Indiana Hoosiers are at Michigan State this weekend and for a number of different reasons I believe this one favors the visitors. Michigan State gets caught flat footed and complacent in my opinion after winning three straight, most recently over Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota. Indiana has traded wins with losses of late, most recently falling to Michigan this past weekend. The Hoosiers got blown out by both Ohio State and Penn State, but looked a lot better in last week’s 27-20 OT loss to Michigan. Now 0-3 in Big Ten play, clearly Indiana is going to be desperate to get off the conference schneid. In their 30-27 win over the Golden Gophers last weekend, Spartans’ RB LJ Scott returned and posted a career-high 194 yards and two TD’s. Previous to that monster game though, Scott was averaging a career-low 3.7 YPG this year. I’ll point out as well that Indiana has in fact excelled in this spot for bettors, going 7-5 ATS in its last 12 on the road overall and 3-1 ATS in its last four after playing a conference game, while Michigan State is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU wins. These teams played last year and Michigan State won 24-21 in OT. The Hoosiers are out for revenge and while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Indiana. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | Syracuse v. Miami-FL -14.5 | 19-27 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* SItuational Stunner is on Miami Florida (3:30 EST). The 4-3 Syracuse Orange are at 5-0 Miami Florida this weekend and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Orange are primed for a classic letdown here after their massive 27-24 upset victory over Clemson last Saturday. The Hurricanes though won’t be taking anything for granted after nudging by Georgia Tech 25-24 last weekend. Syracuse QB Eric Dungey so far has 2,080 yards and a 12/4 TD/INT ratio. The Orange defense caught a big break last weekend though, as Tigers’ starting QB Kelly Bryant left just before the half with a concussion. Hurricanes’ QB Malik Rosier had 297 yards, one TD and no picks last week. Rosier has 1,371 yards and a 12/3 TD/INT. RB Travis Homer had 170 yards last week. Miami’s defense also looked sharp, holding Georgia Tech to just 281 total yards and limiting the Yellow Jackets to just 4 of 13 on third downs. The Hurricane’s pass defense was especially tight, which doesn’t bode well for Dungey this weekend either in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that Syracuse is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Miami is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | Troy -9.5 v. Georgia State | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 140 h 7 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Troy (2:00 EST). The 4-2 Troy Trojans are just 1-5 ATS, while Georgia State is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS. Troy looks to get back on track here after its three game win streak came to an end in a 19-8 setback to South Alabama last Wednesday. Georgia State looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its third straight win in a 47-37 victory over Louisiana Monroe. So far the Trojans are ranked 110th in scoring offense by averaging 21.3 PPG, making up for it on the defensive side of the ball in conceding just 18.7 PPG. QB Brandon Silvers has 1,504 yards with two TD’s and three INT’s, plus three more rushing scores. RB Jamarius Henderson has 216 yards and three TD’s. The Panthers are tied for 78th in the country in scoring offense with an average of 28 PPG, while ranked 69th in scoring defense in conceding 26.2. Georgia State QB Conner Manning has 1,261 yards, six TD’s and four INT’s. RB Taz Bateman has 176 yards on 53 carries. I’ll point out though that Troy is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a winning home record, while Georgia State is just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. I think Troy’s defense proves to be too much for the Panthers to overcome. The Trojans lead the league in several defensive categories and all signs point to a bounce back this weekend. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-17 | Canadiens +109 v. Ducks | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Montreal Canadiens (10:05 EST). Ultimately I believe that Montreal is the “hungrier/more desperate” team tonight. Neither side can be very happy where it sits right now. That said, the panic button has already been pressed in Montreral as it limps into Anaheim with a 1-5-1 record. The Ducks can empathize, as they enter this one at 2-3-1. Montreal most recently fell 5-2 to San Jose on Tuesday, which came after falling 5-1 to the Kings the night before. The Habs enter desperate on the heels of a six-game slide. Goaltender Carey Price is just 1-4-1 with a 3.56 GAA this year. So far the Canadiens average just 1.43 GPG, while allowing 3.86. The Ducks lost their second straight and fourth in their last five in a 3-1 setback to the Sabres on Sunday. Anaheim would go 0 for 4 on the power play. Ryan Getzlaf was injured and didn’t play and he’s not suiting up for this one either (if he does play, he’ll be less than 100% capacity obviously. Also note that Ryan Kesler is out for the Ducks as well.) Goaltender John Gibson is 2-2-1 with a 2.66 GAA thus far. I’ll point out though that Montreal is 11-3 in its last 14 following a loss by three or more goals, while Anaheim is just 1-5 in its last six home games against a team with a road winning percentage below .400. Note that Patrick Eaves is also listed as questionable for the home side tonight. Also note that while these teams rarely meet, this is still a revenge game for the Habs, as they’ve lost five straight in the series. Price hasn’t forgotten how to play and the Canadiens are not really as bad as what they’ve shown over the last couple of weeks. I’m banking on the desperate visiting side to risk life and limb tonight and to take this one down to the wire. Play on Montreal. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-17 | Yankees v. Astros -134 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 37 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM in on the Houston Astros (8:00 EST). Neither the Astros nor the Yankees hit much in the first two games of this ALCS series but after back-to-back 2-1 games, the teams returned to New York with the favored Astros up 2-0. However, the Astros' stay in the Bronx was not a pleasant one, as the Yankees stormed to three consecutive wins, 8-1, 6-4 and 5-0. Houston was only competitive in Game 4, grabbing a 4-0 lead heading to the bottom of the 7th but then the team's bullpen imploded. This series returns to Houston with the Yankees up 3-2 and the Astros one loss away from elimination. The Astros led the majors in scoring with 896 runs during the regular season, (5.53 per), plus led in team batting (.282) and OPS (.823). However, Houston has scored just nine runs through five games (1.80 per), while batting .147 with an OPS of .823. However, as the saying has gone for many a years in MLB, "momentum is never further away than the next game's starting pitcher." Houston can't be concerned about if the team has a pitcher good enough to stand up to the pressure of a Game 7 (Astros likey do not), Houston just needs to "get to a Game 7 and who better to have on the mound than Justin Verlander? The former AL Cy Young and MVP winner was 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and a 43-5 KW ratio in five regular season starts for Houston. He's also made three appearances in the postseason (two starts), going 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 16-5 KW ratio. Enough said? Not exactly, as Houston will have to break out of its slump, as well. Luis Severino was New York's best starter this year but he has not had his "A-game" this postseason. He was able to get just one out in the wild card game vs the Twins and in Game 2 of this series, was lifted following the fourth inning, when he struggled to get loose and was hit in the wrist by a comebacker. Yes, he was checked out by doctors and quickly cleared. In between those two "mini" starts, he did have a solid effort in Game 4 of the ALDS, yielding three runs on four hits in seven innings in the Yankees' 7-3 win against Cleveland. However, Severino can't expect to get much run support against Verlander, so the pressure will be squarely on the 23-year-old. Can the Houston bats, so 'deadly' all year, really remain quiet, again? I think not and in the end, "In Verlander I will trust!" Bring on Game 7. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-17 | Jazz v. Wolves -4.5 | 97-100 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). Jeff Teague replaces Ricky Rubio as point guard in Minnesota this year. Rubio returns to Minnesota tonight as part of the Utah Jazz. Minnesota head coach Tom Thibodeau brought over Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler to the Wolves as well in the offseason. Minneosta now looks to punch its first win of the year after falling 107-99 at San Antonio in its season opener on Wednesday. Andrew Wiggins had 26 points, while Karl Anthony Towns had 18 points and 13 boards: "We didn't close out the way we needed to against a team like that," Thibodeau said. "You have to play, particularly down the stretch. We just have to do better. We didn't have a lot of turnovers, but the ones we had were very costly. That's something we have to take a look at." I think the Jazz come in a bit complacent here after their big 106-96 opening night win agaisnt the Nuggets on Wednesday. Big man Rudy Gobert was a standout with 18 points and ten boards. Minnesota though plays with revenge tonight after Utah took took three of four meetings a year ago. Additionally I’ll point out that Utah is just 22-23 ATS in its last 45 following a victory by ten points or more, while Minnesota is 45-31 ATS in its last 76 against a team with a winning record. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Wolves. Good luck…Larry |
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10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +10 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Old Dominion (6:00 EST). The 4-2 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers get ready to face off against the 2-4 ODU Monarchs on Friday night and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do think that the determined home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. WKU comes in off a 45-14 win over Charlotte at home, while Old Dominion enters off a 35-3 loss at Marshall. Note that this is a revenge game for the Monarchs after they fell at WKU 59-24 last season. So far Western Kentucky averages 25.5 PPG, while allowing just 18.2 PPG (ranked 19th). Last week the Hilltoppers posted 627 yards of offense as Mike White would go 33 of 47 for 398 yards passing and five TD’s. Note though that the 49ers did post 248 rushing yards against them. The Monarchs average 17.0 PPG and allow 34.7. Clearly they are overmatched on both sides of the ball, however I think this is a great situation for the home side (also note that the defense looked much better last week, allowing just 371 yards in the game. ) WKU has hit a “vanilla” part of its schedule with FAU at home next week, so it’s not too hard to imagine the Hilltoppers coming in a bit complacent here on the heels of three straight “rocking chair” victories. Additionally I’ll point out that WKU is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road (including 0-2 ATS already this year), while ODU is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 following a conference contest. As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for an outright upset, but the conditions would appear right for a competitive affair. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 47.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the under Chiefs/Raiders (8:25 EST). The 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs are at division rival, 2-4 Oakland on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. KC comes in off a 19-13 home loss to Pittsburgh, while the Raiders will be desperate to get back into the winners circle this weekend after dropping four straight, most recently a 17-16 home loss to the Chargers. The Chiefs had 223 passing yards last Sunday, but allowed 439 in the setback to the Steelers. KC was particularly horrible against the run, allowing 179 yards to Le’Veon Bell. Kansas City though catches a break facing this stalled Raiders offense. We can expect the Raiders to focus heavily on the run while on offense obviously. Oakland though has averaged just 13.2 PPG during the slide. Last week QB Derek Carr was 21 of 30 for 171 yards with one TD and two INT’s. The Raiders’ defense has also struggled this season, but will also catch a break against a winded Chiefs team, reeling from its first loss of the year and having to deal with a short week. Additionally I’ll point out that KC has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 14 against clubs with losing records and in six of its last nine as a road favorite of three points or less, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of its last 14 against divisional foes. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” where field position becomes paramount, rather than a high-scoring “track meet.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder UNDER 214.5 | Top | 84-105 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is on the under Knicks/Thunder (8:05 EST). New York is in a complete rebuild after trading Carmelo Anthony to the Thunder in the offseason. Derrick Rose is gone as well from The Big Apple. Enes Canter was signed in the offseason and Doug McDermott came over in the Anthony trade. Kristaps Porzingis will be the “go to” guy in New York now. Last season the Knicks were tied for 18th in the league in scoring with 104.3 PPG, while ranked 23rd in scoring defense in allowing 108. The Thunder averaged 106.6 PPG and allowed 105.8. Russell Westbrook posted an amazing season with 31.6 points, 10.7 boards and 10.4 assists per game. He’ll be joined by Anthony and Paul George, a unit which is expected to compete with the Warriors once it’s all said and done. Both teams have new faces and new systems to incorporate. While Porzingis is now the face of the Knicks, one has to wonder where the team is going to find consistent offense now that Anthony is gone? OKC has the potential to be a championship team, but it could also be a big disaster, with three alpha males unable to form proper chemistry. I’ll point out that the under 3-0-1 in New York’s last four road games, while OKC has seen the total dip below the number in two of its last three at home. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs +147 | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (8:00 EST). The Cubs have taken the lead in each game of their NLCS with the Dodgers and did so again in Game 4, with two solo HRs in the bottom of the second. However, for the first time this series, the Cubs were able to hang on for the win. Chicago and LA combined to hit five solo HRs in Game 4 of the NLCS on Wednesday, with the Cubs "staying alive" with a 3-2 victory. For the Cubs, they have now won five straight games when their backs were against the wall, dating back to last year’s World Series. Recapping, they came from 3-1 down to the Indians in the 2016 World Series, beat the Nats 9-8 in Game 5 of their 2017 NLDS and last night won 3-2 over the Dodgers, preventing LA from a four-game sweep. Can the Cubs "do it again tonight?" We'll see. What we know for sure is that Chicago will try to stave off elimination for a second consecutive night by defeating the Dodgers at Wrigley Field on Thursday, which would send this NLCS back to Los Angeles for a Game 6 on Saturday. As for the Dodgers, the Game 4 loss was their first loss of the postseason. Los Angeles had not trailed after the fifth inning in any of its previous six playoff games this year. “We don’t expect anyone to lay down,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters. “They’re the world champs, and you know they’re going to fight to the end.” The pitching matchup features Clayton Kershaw (1-0, 4.76 ERA this postseason) and Jose Quintana (0-0, 1.59 ERA). We know Kershaw owns a 'shaky' playoff history, going 5-7 with a 4.57 ERA in 20 career games (16 starts) in the postseason. He split two starts against the Cubs in last year’s NLCS and allowed two runs over five innings in a no-decision in Game 1 of this matchup. The Dodgers have the 2017 playoffs' best team but in two postseason starts so far, Kershaw has allowed nine hits (including five HRs) and six ERs over 11.1 innings (4.76 ERA). Once again, he has NOT been the same pitcher we saw in the regular season. In contrast, Quintana has been excellent in his first postseason, allowing three runs (two earned) over 11.1 innings in two starts and a relief appearance. He gave up two runs and two hits over five innings in Game 1 and left with the contest tied. The Cubs went 10-4 in Quintana's 14 regular season starts after acquiring him form the White Sox, including winning EIGHT of his last nine. The lefty has been 'money' here at Wrigley, with the Cubs winning EIGHT of his nine home starts at Wrigley (including the postseason)! Talk about a 'live dog!' Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -3 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Houston (8:00 EST). The 5-1 Memphis Tigers are in Houston to take on the 4-2 Cougars and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Tigers come in off a 30-27 home win over Navy last weekend, while the Cougars will be out to atone for a listless 45-17 road loss to Tulsa. Note that this is also a “revenge” scenario for Houston after it fell 48-44 at home to Memphis last year. Last week the Tigers forced five turnovers in their victory over the Midshipmen and gave up just 334 yards overall. QB Riley Ferguson was 24 of 40 for 279 yards and three TD’s. So far the offense has scored over 30 points in all but one game this year. Houston gave up 416 yards last weekend and allowed the Golden Hurricane to convert on 9 of 17 first downs. However, despite last week’s result, the Cougars have been solid defensively this year. Last week QB Kyle Postma had his worst game of the season, posting 258 passing yards with no TD’s and two INT’s. So far he has 805 passing yards and a poor 4/5 TD/INT ratio. The run game looked good for the Cougars though, accumulating 146 yards, led by Duke Catalon with 72 on the day. From a trend based stand point, this one definitely favors the home side: I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 27 points or more in its previous contest, while Houston is 4-2 ATS in ts last six after allowing 44 points or more in its previous game. I think Memphis stumbles on the road here against this determined Houston side, looking to atone for a weak effort last week and out for revenge from a close loss a year ago. Play on Houston. Good luck…Larry |
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10-19-17 | Islanders v. Rangers -130 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the New York Rangers (7:05 EST). The 2-4 New York Islanders are at the 1-6 New York Rangers on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Islanders enter off a 3-2 road loss to LA, while the Rangers come in off a 5-4 setback at home in OT to the Penguins. So far the Isles are ranked 21st in the NHL in scoring with 2.50 GPG, while ranked 17th in goals allowed with 2.83. Thomas Greiss is getting the call in net and he’s so far 1-2 with a 3.07 GAA. The Rangers are averaging 2.43 GPG and allowing 2.71. Henrik Lundqvist is back after falling to Pittsburgh and so far he’s 1-4 with a 3.23 GAA on the year (note that he owns a lifetime 2.22 GAA at Madison Square Garden though.) Additionally I’ll point out that the Isles are just 1-5 in tehir last six road games against a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400, while the Rangers are 54-26 in their last 80 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. This is the third game of a six game home stand for the Rangers, so there’s no question that the overall scheduling is in their favor, with the Islanders just finishing transitioning back from the West coast. I think the Rangers are the “hungrier” team here and all things considered, I do indeed believe this to be the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Rangers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-17 | Blazers v. Suns | Top | 124-76 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Phoenix Suns (10:00 EST). Portland was 41-41 last year and got swept in the first round by the Warriors. Phoenix was just 24-58 and missed the postseason for a seventh consecutive year. Note that this is a revenge game for the Suns after the Blazers took three of four meetings last season, including in the last one, a 130-117 home win on April 1st. The Blazers averaged 107.9 PPG last season and conceded 108.5. Damian Lillard averaged 27 PPG and 5.9 assists, while CJ McCollum chipped in 23. The Suns averaged 107.7 PPG and allowed 113.3, which was last in the league. Phoenix added Josh Jackson, Mike James, Alec Peters and Davon Reed in the offseason. Eric Bledsoe led the nightly charge with 21.1 PPG last year, while Devin Booker averaged 22.1 PPG. Phoenix won’t have McCollum in the ilne-up though due to a one game suspension, which I think will be a big difference maker on Opening Night. I like the Suns to hold serve on their own floor and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-17 | Wolves +2.5 v. Spurs | 99-107 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 7 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (9:30 EST). Minnesota was 31-51 last year, but is expected to make big strides this season with the continued development of star players Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Wolves also brought in veteran guard Jimmy Butler from Chicago, who looks re-focused and in great shape coming out of the preseason. Last year the Wolves averaged 105.6 PPG and allowed 106.7. The Spurs averaged 105.3 PPG and allowed 98.1. San Antonio should once again be a strong defensive club, but it lacks offensive firepower. The team signed Rudy Gay, but Kawhi Leonard is expected to miss tonight’s game. San Antonio signed big man LaMarcus Aldridge to a long-term deal, but along with Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the Spurs are certainly not getting any younger right now. With Parker and Leonard out of the line-up for the home side, I have a hard time seeing the Spurs keeping pace with the high-flying Wolves. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -109 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (9:00 EST). The Los Angeles Dodgers are one win away from reaching the World Series for the first time since 1988 plus in the process, can end Chicago's 'dynasty' at one WS title in a row. The Cubs have scored first in every game of the series but have then almost incredibly, failed to score again in all three games of this NLCS. The Cubs are batting .160 as a team in the series, while scoring a total of just four runs on 15 hits (32 Ks with just four walks). It that's not bad enough, the Cubs are a woeful 0-for-11 with RISP in the series. Let's get this daunting stat out of the way, first. Of the 36 teams in postseason history that have led 3-0 in a best-of-seven series, 29 have completed a sweep. However, let's remember that the Cubs erased a three-games-to-one deficit in the 2016 World Series against the Indians to capture their first championship since 1908. Alex Wood 16-3, 2.72 ERA in the regular season and much like Houston's Charlie Morton, has delivered a "career year" in 2017, out of nowhere .He takes the mound here, for the first time since September 26 and it marks his first-ever postseason start. He's made four less-than-stellar relief outings in past postseasons and had allowed eight runs (four earned) over 5.1 innings over his first three postseason appearances before working two scoreless innings out of the bullpen against the Cubs in last year’s NLCS. Meanwhile, the Cubs' Arrieta has made eight postseason starts over these last three years. I went against Morton in Game 3 of the ALCS with Houston up 2-0 and he failed miserably, allowing seven ERs in just 3.2 innings. With the Cubs in an 0-3 'hole' here, I'll go to that same 'well' again, going against Wood, who entered this season 27-30 in his career over 112 appearances (77 starts). No sweep tonight in Wrigley! Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-17 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Bucks (7:30 EST). Boston lost its Opening Night game in Cleveland last night and it also lost All Star Gordon Hayward for the season after he suffered a gruesome leg injury. Now the deflated C’s have to retiurn home and try to muster up the same energy to face a Bucks team that can smell the blood in the water. Milwaukee made the playoffs last year and then lost in six games to the Raptors in the first round. The Bucks didn’t make too many changes in the offseason Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to have a massive year for the Bucks. He’s joined by Jabari Parker and Greg Monroe and in my opinion, they have a very legitimate shot at taking this one outright. Kyrie Irving looked pretty good last night for his new team, but with the knowledge that Hayward is now out for the year and coming off the setback in Cleveland, I think this absolutely sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Celtics right out of the gates here. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-18-17 | Astros v. Yankees +1.5 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is the New York Yankees on the run-line (5:00 EST). On paper the Astros have the advantage in the pitching departemnt in this series. They also have the advantage in this particular head-to-head matchup, as Dallas Keuchel is 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA, while Masahiro Tanaka is 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA. However, home field advantage has been crucial so far in this series and in a game which I foresee being decided late or in extra frames, I’m going to lay what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Keuchel has been sharp in the playoffs, posting 17 K’s over 12.2 innings of work thus far. Tanaka was sharp as well in Game 1 against the Astros, holding them to two runs over six innings. In his outing against the Indians in the ALDS Tanaka went seven scoreless. I think “momentum” can be a very real, almost tangible factor, especially in the playoffs. As good as Keuchel has been this year, I think he and Tanaka are a “wash” right now. And in a scenario like that, I think we’re getting tremendous value on the hard-hitting home side on the run-line. Good luck…Larry |
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10-17-17 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 122-121 | Win | 100 | 76 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Houston Rockets (10:35 EST). Houston won 55 games last year and finished as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. James Harden averaged 29.1 PPG and posted an NBA best 11.2 assists and finished second in the MVP race behind Russell Westrbrook. Harden has some big time help in the form of All-Star point guard Chis Paul and now the Rockets will look to even better their results in 2017/18. And what better test than against the best in the league? The Warriors are back on top after defeating the Cavaliers in five games last season. Golden State didn’t do too much to its lineup and is once again expected to contend for the NBA title once it’s all said and done. I’ll point out though that Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road, while Golden State is interestingly just 1-2 ATS in its last three Opening Night games. Houston is out for revenge here after faling in five games to Golden State in the conference finals last year, except this time it has arguably the best point guard in the World running the show. While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do definitely believe this is a few too many points to be giving up here. Play on Houston. Good luck…Larry |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -119 | 6-1 | Loss | -119 | 34 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (9:00 EST). The Dodgers were MLB's best team during the regular season and they have been MLB's best postseason team so far, as well. LA takes a 2-0 lead and a 5-0 overall postseason mark into Game 3 of the NLCS. Yu Darvish takes the mound at Wrigley Tuesday night, coming off winning Game 3 of the NLDS with the D'backs but reality check, he didn't deliver a "Bob Gibson-like" performance. He pitched five innings, allowing two hits and one run with seven Ks and no walks. How about good but not great, OK? Let's remember, his combined momeyline mark this regular season (Texas and LA combined), was minus-$1302, the third-worst among all 2017 starters. His playoff win over Arizona was his first in three tries, after allowing 10 hits (four HRs) and seven ERs over 11.2 innings (5.40 ERA) in losing twice in the postseason with Texas. Kyle Hendricks takes the mound inmGame 3 for Chicago and the Cubs have to like their chances. Until Hendricks allowed a three-run HR to Talyor in that deciding Game 5 against Washington (Cubs would win, 9-8), he hadn't given up more than three ERs in 14 starts since the All Star break. In fact, in half of those starts (seven), he had allowed one or zero ERs. Prior to allowing four runs on 10/12 at Washington, Hendricks owned a 1.98 ERA in eight previous postseason starts. I say the Cubs have "just the guy they want" on the mound for this "must-win" contest. I’m not counting out the Cubbies quite yet. Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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10-17-17 | Penguins v. Rangers -101 | 5-4 | Loss | -101 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Rangers (7:05 EST). The 3-2-1 Pittsburgh Penguins are in New York to take on the desperate 1-5 New York Rangers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side. The Pens come to The Big Apple off a 4-3 home win over Florida, while the Rangers fell 3-2 at home to the Devils. Pittsburgh has won three of its last four and is averaging 3.33 GPG, while conceding 4.17. Clearly the season is still young and the Pens are going to improve dramatically on the defensive side of the ice once it’s all said and done, but so far in the early going it hasn’t been great for the two time defending champs. Goaltender Matt Murray is 3-1 with a 3.29 GAA. New York has so far averaged just 2.17 GPG, while allowing 3.50. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist will get the call in net and he owns a lifetime 2.47 GAA against Pittsburgh. I’ll point out though that Pittsburgh is just 2-5 in its last seven road games, while New York is 54-25 in its last 79 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Pens may have owned this series of late, but the Rangers are unquestionably the “hungrier” team in this one. I think the desperation in which they play with tonight will in the end prove to be the difference. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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10-16-17 | Colts +9 v. Titans | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST). The 2-3 Colts are in Tennessee to take on the 2-3 Titans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Indianapolis comes in off a confidence building 26-23 OT win over San Francisco, while Tennessee looked horrible in its 16-10 road loss in Miami last weekend. If recent history is any precedence, then the Colts have to be liking their chances today, as they’ve won 11 straight in the series, including a a 24-17 home victory in the most recent matchup. Of course, most/all of those games in that win streak were started by either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. Regardless, I absoultely believe that the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. So far the Colts average 19.4 PPG and allow 32.8 The team looked better last week though, winning the yardage battle 447-402 and had a sizeable advantage in time of possession, going 37:17 to 31:05. Indaianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 997 yards, two TD’s and three INT’s. Brissett though is learning on the fly and has definitely looked stronger with each outing. Frank Gore leads the ground game with 239 yards and two major scores thus far. Tennessee averages 22 PPG and allows 28.4. Last week the Titans gave up six sacks, while also committing 11 penalties. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has 792 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s thus far, while also posting 116 yards rushing and three more scores on the ground. He missed the Miami game, but is expected to start here. If he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. And if he doesn’t play, then Matt Cassel will get the call, so far he has 162 yards, a TD and two INT’s this season. RB DeMarco Murray has 273 yards and one TD. I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Mariota’s health? It’s definitely a big question mark for this one. I think Brissett can keep his team competitive, so grab up those points! Good luck…Larry |
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10-16-17 | Astros v. Yankees -122 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 38 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the New York Yankees (8:05 EST). Monday’s game has become the most important one of the entire year for the Yankees and suffice it to say, I’m fully expecting the “Evil Empire” to be up to the task in front of the home town crowd. The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62 ERA) who started in Boston last Monday, giving up two earned runs off seven hits and two walks over 4.1 innings of work. Morton has delivered a career season for the Astros and who could have predicted it. He began his career with Atlanta in 2008, spent the next seven seasons toiling for the Pirates and then made just four starts for the Phillies in 2016. He was signed by Houston, despite a career record of 46-71 with a 4.53 ERA. However, he went 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA. The Astros were 16-9 in all his starts (plus-$408) but while the team was 11-5 in his home starts, the Astros were only 5-4 in his road starts. The home side counters with CC Sabathia (14-5, 3.69) who has been a steadying presence on the mound for the Yanks all year. CC Sabathia was 15-6 for the Yanks in 2012 but entered 2017 off a four-year run (2013-16) in which he had gone just 32-39, allowing more hits (642) than innings pitched (604) plus fashioned ERAs between 3.91 and 5.28. No one saw his 2017 season coming. CC finished the regular season 14-5, allowing 139 hits in 148.2 IP. More importantly, the Yankees were 19-8 in his starts, giving him a plus-$1163 moneyline mark which ranked third-best among all starters. This marks his third postseason start but first here at Yankee Stadium. CC pitched well against the Indians. Although he went only 9.2 innings in his two starts, he struck out 14 batters and his Game 5 effort was a big reason the Yankees advanced. He now takes the mound in this "must-win" situation and it's good news for New York that CC was 7-2 at home with the Yankees going 10-3 in his home starts this season. Yanks were only team in MLB with more HRs than the Astros (241-238) and are way over due to break out, after being held to just two runs on 10 hits in the first two games of the ALDS. Do you really trust Morton? I don't. I think the change in venue is just what the doctor orered for New York, while all signs point to a classic letodwn for Houston. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on the Yankees. Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-17 | Bucs v. Cardinals OVER 44.5 | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 142 h 0 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is on the over Bucs/Cards (4:05 EST). Two teams coming off low-scoring losses will look to turn things around on the offensive end. With each side putting an added emphasis on that side of the field, I do indeed believe this number is just a little low. The Bucs fell 19-14 at home to the Pats, while the Cards come in off a disappointing 34-7 setback at Philadelphia. Note that Tampa will be playing with the added motivation of revenge after Arizona smashed it 40-7 last season. Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston has 1,198 yards and a 7/3 TD/INT ratio. DeSean Jackson had five catches for 105 yards last week. The Tampa defense looked decent against New England, but I believe it’s going to have its hands full in this one. Arizona’s defense looked as bad as its offense did last week. Neither unit is as bad as what it showed though and I do expect to see marked improvement on both sides of the ball on Sunday (especially on the offensive.) Noet that Tampa has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 14 against teams with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six against NFC South opponents. The Cards offense is still ranked second in the NFL in passing with 289 yards per game and I think that’s going to finally translate into some points this weekend. All signs point to a shootout, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-17 | Browns +11 v. Texans | 17-33 | Loss | -135 | 139 h 57 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST). The 0-5 Cleveland Browns never expected to make the playoffs this season, but they also weren’t expecting things to be quite this bad. While the Browns are now already “looking ahead” until next year, I still think they offer plenty of value in this spot. Cleveland is most recently coming off a hard-fought setback at home to the Jets, while Houston was smashed by the Cheifs in the Sunday nighter, losing star defensive player JJ Watt for the season again to injury in the process. The Browns once again turn to rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who has three TD’s and nine INT’s thus far. QB Kevin Hogan could see time though as well and so far he has 377 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s on the season. The good thing though is that Cleveland faces another rookie QB in DeShaun Watson this weekend, Clearly Watson is further along with his progression than Kizer at the moment, but it’s not like he’s going up against an Aaron Rodgers or anything this afternoon. It’s interesting to note as well that the Browns are 2-1 ATS in their last three against the AFC South, while Houston is already just 1-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year. After the humbling loss to Kansas City, not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the home side, but with its bye coming next week, it also sets up as a look ahead spot. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Browns. Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9.5 v. Jets | 24-17 | Loss | -109 | 139 h 57 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST). Both division rivals sit at 3-2 to open the season, but for a number of different reaosns I think this one favors the visiting side. After falling at home 33-30 to Carolina, the Pats bounced back with a solid 19-14 road win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. Pats’ QB Tom Brady was 30 of 40 for 303 yards, one TD and one INT last week. New England also posted 113 yards on the ground. New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is not taking the Jets’ defense lightly: “They’re a really hard-nosed, tough, physical team,” McDaniels assessed. “They know us very well. We know them. They’ve got a physical front. They’ve got a very talented front. They’ve got speed at linebacker. They’ve got length on the edge. They’ve got some really, really talented inside players with (defensive linemen Leonard) Williams, (Muhammad) Wilkerson, (and Steve) McLendon. Those guys are tough to block and do a really good job for them inside. And they’ve got some new guys in the secondary that this will be our first opportunity to play against them and get to know them this week with (safeties Marcus) May and (Jamal) Adams. (Cornerback Morris) Claiborne we’ve played against before, but not as a Jet. So this is a new group; a physical bunch.” The Jets offense took a hit when RB Bilal Powell strained a calf this weekend, making him day-to-day. Starting RB Matt Forte is already out with turf toe. If either manages to suit up for this one, clearly they’re not going to be at 100% capacity. I’ll also point out that the Patriots have in fact excelled in this spot for bettors over the years, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight against teams with winning records (they’re also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.) Additionally note that the Jets are interestingly just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their previous game. Brandin Cooks already has 18 catchs for 379 yards and two TD’s for New England this year and Brady has shown no signs of slowing down. After a couple of mediocre performances in a row, I look for this high-powered New England offense to finally get untracked. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-17 | Dolphins v. Falcons -11 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 57 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). The Falcons are rested, coming off their bye week and I look for them to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Atlanta will be especially motivated here as well after falling to the Bills in their last outing. Conversely, Miami comes in contented after its two-game slide ended with a win over the Titans. Despite that 16-10 victory though, the Fish have scored a grand total of 41 points through the first four games and QB Jay Cutler has for the most part struggled. Note that the Miami offense was shutout by the Saints earlier in the year. The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Falcons though: “It’s a perfect time for us to reset,” head coach Dan Quinn noted. “For whatever reason, the bye hit us at the right time based on some injuries. It was great to have those guys back.” (Julio Jones, OT Ryan Schraeder, LB Vic Beasley and safety Ricardo Allen.) I’ll point out as well that the Dolphins are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against clubs with winning records, while the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five following their bye-week. Cutler is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game, which clearly doesn’t bode well in this hostile environment. With a week to re-focus and plan for this one, all signs point to an epic lop-sided destruction. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4 | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 136 h 0 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. The Lions opened the 2017 season with a 35-23 home win over the Cardinals and followed with a 24-10 MNF win at the NY Giants in Week 2. However, neither of those wins look very impressive now and Detroit will head to New Orleans having lost two of its last three, needing a win to not fall back to .500 at 3-3. Meanwhile, the Saints opened the 2017 season with double-digit losses at Minnesota (29-19) and home to New England (36-20) but then shocked the Panthers 34-13 in Carolina in Week 3 before shutting out the Dolphins 2-0 in London during Week 4. New Orleans was one of four teams with a Week 5 bye and now welcomes the Lions to the Superdome, a team which has beaten them in each of the last three seasons, 24-23 in Detroit in 2014, then 35-27 and 28-13 the last two years here in New Orleans. The Lions hosted the Panthers last Sunday, entering that game surviving by being extremely opportunistic on both sides of the ball, Detroit was averaging 24.8 PPG but just 299.8 YPG in total offense plus was allowing just 17.5 PPG (4th-best), despite ranking 15th in total defense. The team's plus-9 turnover margin had played a huge role in the team reaching 3-1. However, the Lions could not force a single TO against the Panthers, as Cam Newton ripped Detroit's pass D for 355 yards and three TDs. The Lions gained only 192 yards of offense on their own, going 5 of 13 on third down tries (0-1 on 4th-down). QB Stafford is completing 64.6% with nine TDs and just one INT but the Lions rank just 23rd in passing (200.6 YPG). RB Ameer Abdullah had a career-high 94 yards in the Week 4 win at Minnesota but is averaging just 48.5 YPG on the ground in Detroit's other four games, as the team ranks 26th in rushing on the season at 87.6 YPG. If the Lions think that they can win by forcing Brees into mistakes, they had better think again. New Orleans' age-less QB hasn't thrown an interception in 152 attempts this season, while passing for eight TDs (108.3 QB rating) and leading the Saints to average 276.5 YPG through the air (ranks 4th). In fact, the Saints have yet to commit a single TO through four games, only the third NFL team since 1935 to open the season in such a manner! As for the New Orleans' D, talk about turnarounds! The Saints allowed a league-worst 777 passing yards and tied for the league lead with six TD passes allowed in opening 0-2. However, they then hen they flipped the switch, becoming the only NFL team that didn’t allow a TD pass in Weeks 3 or 4. That Week 3 game came against Cam Newton and the Panthers and while Newton shredded the Lions last Sunday in Detroit for 355 yards and three TDs, the Saints held him to 167 yards with no TD passes and three INTs on his home field (QB rating of 43.8)! In Weeks 1 & 2 the Saints allowed 11 passing plays of 24-plus yards and 23 passing plays of 15-plus yards but in Weeks 3 & 4, they allowed one passing play of 24-plus yards and six of 15-plus yards. The Lions are overrated and while I'm not completely sold on the Saints as of yet, they have the advantage of an extra week of rest coming into this one off that London game. Lay the points! Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-17 | New Mexico v. Fresno State OVER 53.5 | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Week 7 Goin' Over Total is on New Mexico/Fresno State Over at 10:00 ET.
Bob Davies is in his sixth season at New Mexico and comes in off back-to-back bowl appearances, including the team's best season of his tenure in 2016. The Lobos finished 9-4, after a New Mexico Bowl win over UTSA. The Lobos travel to Bulldog Stadium for a MWC matchup with the Fresno State Bulldogs. They made it two straight wins back on Sep 30 with 56-38 win versus the Air Force, riding a 42-point second half to the victory as a small home dog. Jeff Tedford surfaced at Fresno State to take over a Bulldog program coming off 3-9 and 1-11 (2016) seasons. The Bulldogs had to play Alabama and Washington in their first three games and naturally, were over-matched. However, wins over Nevada and at San Jose St have the 3-2 Bulldogs looking for a third straight win in this contest.Davies' option running attack is once again 'hitting on all cylinders," as the Lobos had 363 yards rushing (on 8.9 YPC!) in the team's win over Air Force. New Mexico averages 266.8 YPG on the ground (12th), led by Richard McQuarley, who after rushing for 179 yards and five TDs against Air Force, has 301 yards on the season (five players have more than 150 yards rushing on the season). QB Lamar Jordan is again back running "The Pistol," after missing some time. He's an excellent runner, who ran for over 1,500 yards the last two seasons, scoring 12 TDs. New Mexico's D has allowed 24.6 PPG but beware, the Lobos have allowed 30-plus PPG in seven of the previous eight seasons.No one expected FSU to compete against Alabama or Washington but let's note that the Bulldogs did cover both games, as HUGE underdogs. However, let me add that in the team's other three games, FSU has averaged 44.7 PPG. FSU beat Nevada 41-21 and while the final at San Jose Sate was just 27-10, the Bulldogs were never in trouble, leading 21-0 at the half. QB Marcus McMaryion completed 15-26 for 136 yards but the game before against Nevada, he threw for 296 yards and two TDs (more like it). The schools have met 15 times overall but just 10 times since 1990, with FSU winning NINE of those 10, including the last five. The last time the schools played in Fresno was 2013, with the Bulldogs winning 69-28. Of course, Derek Carr was FSU's QB in that one, throwing for 527 yards and seven TDs. Obviously, McMaryion is no Carr but Fresno Sate can score when playing against teams in their 'weight class.' New Mexico surely qualifies. As noted, New Mexico has Jordan back under center and will put points on the board, thereby forcing Fresno State to open things up. This one's Goin' OVER! Good luck...Larry |
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10-14-17 | Bruins -130 v. Coyotes | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Bruins (9:05 EST). The 1-2 Boston Bruins are in Arizona to take on the 0-3-1 Coyotes on Saturday night. Boston enters off a 6-3 road loss to Colorado, while Arizona fell 4-2 to Detroit in its last outing. Tuukka Rask will get the call in net for Boston and he’ll be looking to reverse his early fortunes, as so far he’s allowed ten goals on the season. Rask is one of the best goaltenders on the planet though and it’s only a matter of time until he returns to form (was 37-20-5 with a 2.23 GAA last season.) Arizona could go with either Antti Raanta or Louis Dominique in net. Both have struggled this season, as Raanta has a 3.33 GAA and Dominique has allowed two goals in eight periods of action. I think it’s interesting to note that Boston is 25-14 (+7.4 units) in its last 39 games played on Saturday, while Arizona is just 18-25 (-2.3 units) in its last 43 in the same position. I like Rask to bounce back and to easily outduel whoever Arizona goes with this evening. And that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the Bruins today in my opinion. Play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-17 | Utah v. USC -11 | 27-28 | Loss | -105 | 147 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on USC (8:00 EST). The 4-1 Utah Utes are in USC to take on the 5-1 Trojans and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. The Utes look primed for a letdown here in my opinion after falling 23-20 at home to Stanford last Saturday. Conversely, USC looks poised to build off its 38-10 victory over Oregon State last weekend. Note that this is also a revenge game for the No. 13 Trojans after they fell 31-27 in Utah last season. Utah hurt itself last week with a pair of costly turnovers. So far the Utes average 32 PPG, while conceding 18.4 QB Tyler Huntley has 966 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s, while also rushing for 208 and three more scores on the ground. Zack Moss leads the way on the ground with 344 yards, plus three TD’s. The Trojans are ranked 35th in the country in averaging 35.5 PPG, while ranked 45th in scoring defense by conceding 23.2. QB Sam Darnold already has 1,705 passing yards with 12 TD’s and nine INT’s. RB Ronald Jones III has 529 yards and seven TD’s. WR Deontay Burnett has 527 yards receving and six TD’s. I’ll point out that Utah is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while USC is 4-0 ATS in its last four after allowing 20 points or less in its previous outing. Huntley is a question mark for Utah coming into this one and if he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100% capacity. Too many things working against the Utes this weekend. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is on the under Cubs/Dodgers (8:00 EST). I’m expecting a pitchers duel to open the National League Championship Series. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Quintana (11-11, 4.15 ERA) who posted a 3.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 14 starts since joining the defending World Champs. Quintana has no record with a 0.00 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP with two walks and seven strikeouts over 6.1 innings in the postseason. Note that Quintana comes into this one on top form, having gone 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP, with two walks and 22 strikeouts over his last three starts. The home side counters with ace Clayton Kershaw (18-4, 2.31) who earned a win against the Diamondbacks in Game 1 despite giving up four earned runs. And despite that shaky performance, Kershaw also comes in hot across the board, going 2-0 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP to go along with three walks and 15 strikeouts over his last three outings. Additionally I’ll point out that Chicago has seen the total go under the number in 46 of 79 road games overall this year, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five after three or more consecutive SU victories. So far the postseason has showcased plenty of offense, but in my opinion, the opener of this series screams “duel.” Play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-17 | Virginia v. North Carolina +3.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF MONTH on North Carolina (3:30 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the 1-5 Tar Heels to risk life and limb in front of the home town crowd as they try to secure another victory. Conversely, I think the 4-1 Virginia Cavaliers are primed for a letdown here after they pulled away for a 28-21 win over Duke last weekend. The Cavs have already doubled their win total from last year, so have to be feeling very content at this point. Jordan Ellis leads the team with 408 rushing yards and five TD’s. The Virginia defense looked sharp, giving up 124 passing yards, while also grabbing two INT’s in last week’s victory. QB Kurt Benkert din’t look overly impressive though, he had 182 passing yards, three TD’s and two INT’s. UNC QB Chazz Surratt has 1,167 passing yards and six TD’s so far this season. Surratt had 179 passing yards in last week’s 33-10 loss to Notre Dame. The Tar Heels struggled against the Irish run game and will need to immediately re-group in facing Ellis and company. Virginia plays UNC (1-5) this week, followed by Boston College (2-4) and Pittsburgh (2-4). After the extended winning stretch, the Cavs now hit a very “vanilla” part of their schedule. In my opinion, it’s a perfect storm of factors leading to complacency. Additionally I’ll point out that Virginia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while UNC is interestingly 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October. I think Surratt keeps his team in this one late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-17 | Michigan v. Indiana +6.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -120 | 139 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* ATS UPSET SPECIAL is on Indiana (12:00 EST). While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the under-rated home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Wolverines are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS, while Indiana is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. I think Michigan is primed for a letdown here, still hungover after its 14-10 loss in the Big House to rival Michigan State. It was the first loss of the year for the Wolverines and it was a devastating one in my opinion. Indiana crushed Charleston Southern 27-0 in non-conference action last wekeend and will look to carry that confidence building momentum over into this one. Note that this is a revenge game for the home side as well after it fell 20-10 in Michigan last year. So far Michigan is ranked 82nd in scoring with 27.2 PPG, while ranked seventh on the defensive side in conceding 13.6. Wolverines’ QB Wilton Speight has 581 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s on the year. He’s out for the year though with injury. John O’Korn has 505 yards, one TD and four INT’s in relief. RB Ty Isaac has 365 yards and a TD. So far Indiana is ranked 69th in scoring offense with an average of 29.6 PPG, while ranked 59th in scoring defense in conceding 25.6. QB Peyton Ramsey has 637 yards passing with six scores and two INT’s, along with another 171 yards and two TD’s on the ground. Morgan Ellison leads the rush attack with 358 yards and two TD’s. I’ll point out though that Michigan is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Indiana is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records. I think the conditions are right for a highly competitive affair. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-14-17 | Florida State -8 v. Duke | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Florida State (12:00 EST). The desperate 1-3 Florida State Seminoles are gunning for a bowl bid at this point of the season, but they’ll need to start stringing together some wins immediately. The Blue Devils are 4-2 and just finished losing to Virginia 28-21 last Saturday. That same day Florida State fell 24-20 at home to Miami-Florida. Seminoles’ QB James Blackman was 17 of 28 passing for 203 yards, two TD’s and two iNT’s. Blackman has been decent since being thrust into the spotlight after starter Deondre Francois went down with injury in Week 1. RB Cam Akers continues to be a bright spot as well, last week he went for 121 yards on 20 carries. The FSU defense looked pretty good against a tough Hurricanes offense, holding them to 337 total yards, including only to 83 on the ground. Duke QB Daniel Jones was 14 of 42 for 124 yards, one TD and two INT’s last week. The run game stalled as well, managing just 131 rushing yards (compared to the 204 YPG average it normally posts.) The Blue Devils looked decent defensively, allowing 310 yards. Duke has now dropped two straight though after starting the year 4-0. Note that FSU is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Duke is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 in the same position. I think Blackman is on the cusp of his first truly big game. The Duke defense has looked great, but so too has the Seminoles. I think the combination of Blackman and Akers will prove to be just too much for the Blue Devils this afternoon. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-17 | Washington State v. California +16 | Top | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 126 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK is on California (10:30 EST). The Washington State Cougars are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, while the Cal Golden Bears are 3-3 SU/ATS. Cal is going to be hungry after losing its third straight, while conversely, the Cougars look primed for a letdown here after winning six straight, most recently a 33-10 victory over Oregon. Note that this is a “revenge” game for the Golden Bears after they fell 56-21 at Washington State last year. So far Washington State is ranked 18th in scoring offense with 39.7 PPG, while ranked 23rd in scoring defense in conceding just 18.5. QB Luke Falk already has 2,000 yards passing with 19 TD’s and only two INT’s. Cal is ranked 100th in the nation in scoring with 24.3 PPG, while ranked 89th in scoring defense in conceding 29.8. QB Ross Bowers has 1,437 yards, nine TD’s and eight INT’s. RB Patrick Laird has 400 yards and four major scores on the ground. I’ll point out that though that Washington State is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite, while Cal is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 14.5 to 17 points range. The Cougs have bigger plans than just being “bowl eligible,” but Washington State has now already punched its ticke to a postseason matchup. Cal on the other hand is going to have to earn a couple more conference victories if it has any shot at a bowl invite itself. While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on California. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-17 | Ducks v. Avalanche +102 | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 31 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Avalanche (9:00 EST). The 2-1-1 Anaheim Ducks are in Colorado to take on the 3-1 Avalanche and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Anaheim bounced back from a pair of losses to beat the Islanders at home on Wednesday, while the Avs come off back-to-back wins over the Boston Bruins. Nail Yakupov scored three goals in the home and home set for the Avs. Jonahtan Bernier will get the call in net to face his former team. I think it’s very intersting to note though that Anaheim is just 13-17 (-12.8 units) in its last 30 games that are played on a Friday, while Colorado is 10-5 (+9.5 units) in its last 15 Friday night contests. The Avs hit the road for a two game swing starting tomorrow night in Dallas, making this evening’s contest that much more important. Colorado isn’t getting nearly enough respect in this spot. Great value, play on the Avalanche. Good luck…Larry |
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10-13-17 | Yankees +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Yankees run-line (8:05 EST). New York shocked Cleveland in the ALDS and I expect the “Evil Empire” to carry that momentum over into Game 1 of the ALCS. Houston managed to get by Boston in four games. Masahiro Tanaka (13-12, 4.74 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors in Game 1 after his gem in the ALDS against the Indians. Tanaka was 10-6 with a 3.93 ERA in all “night” games this season. This will also set up Tanaka for a Game 5 start as well. Tanaka had an up and down campaign, but finished the stretch strong. Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90) gets the call for the home side and he was 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA in 12 outings in Houston this season. Keuchel is also 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA lifetime against the Yanks. But New York is a strong offensive team this year as it comes in ranked 2nd in the league in scoring, putting up 5.30 rpg. Houston is ranked No. 1 at 5.53. With an extra run and a half, I think Gray is the correct the call here. The veteran struggled in Game 1 of the LDS, but has a big opportunity to make amends tonight. In a contest which I foresee being decided late or in extra frames, I’m taking New York on the run line. Good luck…Larry |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (8:25 EST). The short week almost always favors the home side and I believe that’s going to be the case here. The Eagles are 4-1 SU/ATS, while the Panthers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. Philadelphia cruised to a 34-7 win over the Cardinals last weekend, while Carolina won 27-24 in Detroit for a second straight road victory. The Eagles are flying high, but let’s not get too carried away as their level of competition has been very low, beating the Giants 27-24 and the Chargers 26-24. Clearly the Cardinals have major issues as well. In my opinion Philadelphia has yet to be tested this year, something which is about to change this weekend. Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was 21 of 30 for 304 yards and four TD’s last week, while RB LeGarrette Blount had 74 yards on 14 carries. Philadelphia is averaging 397.8 YPG and conceding 346. Carolina is averaging 327.2 YPG and conceding 274 (ranked third.) Panthers’ QB Cam Netwon had 355 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s last week. RB Christian McCaffrey caught a TD pass in that one. Philadelphia though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of three points or less. As mentioned off the top, this is going to be the best defense that Wentz has seen all season and ultimately I think the opportunistic home side unit will prove to be be the difference maker in this contest. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-12-17 | Wild +130 v. Blackhawks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 130 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Minnesota Wild (8:30 EST). The 0-1-0-1 Minnesota Wild will be eager to get off the schneid and score the upset against the 3-0-1-0 Blackhawks on Thursday night. The Wild most recently fell 5-4 at Carolina in a shootout, while the Blackhawks come in off a 3-1 road win over the Habs. This is a revenge scenario for Minnesota as well after dropping three of four meetings last year. Wild goaltender Devan Dubnyk was 40-24 with a 2.25 GAA last season, including 17-13 with a 2.37 GAA. Last year Minnesota was ranked third in scoring with 3.21 GPG, while ranked seventh in goals allowed by conceding 2.51. The Blackhawks were ranked second in the league in scoring last season with 3.25 GPG, while ranked fourth in goals allowed in conceding 1.75. Goaltender Corey Crawford is off to a hot start, he’s 10-10 with a 2.48 GAA lifetime against the Wild. I’ll point out though that Minnesota 32-24 (+2.7 units) in its last 56 after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Chicago is interestingly just 4-6 (-2.9 units) in its last ten against the division. I think the “hungrier” and clearly underachieving Wild find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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10-12-17 | Texas State +14 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Texas State (7:30 EST). Texas State is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS so far this season, while UL Lafayette is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. The Bobcats enter off a 45-27 home loss to Louisiana Monroe, while UL Lafayette looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 21-16 road win over Idaho in its last outing. Note that this is a revenge game for Texas State after it fell 27-3 at home to the Ragin Cajuns last year. Bobcats’ QB Damian WIlliams was 13 of 24 for 158 yards, one TD and no picks last week. The Texas State ground game looked dominant in the loss, posting 181 yards with Anthony D Taylor leading the way with 102 rushing. The defense looked bad, but the unit catches a break this week in facing UL Lafayette. The Ragin Cajuns’ Andre Nunez was 18 of 24 for 213 yards, one TD and one INT last week. WR Ja’Marcus Bradley had five catches for 93 yards. UL Lafayette looked great defensively, but previous to that had struggled. I’m going to be cautious in reading too much into one decent outing. I’ll point out as well that Texas State is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses, while UL Lafayette is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after holding an opponent to 17 points or less in its previous contest. I think the Bobcats are the more desperate team as they look to get off the schneid in conference play. Play on Texas State. Good luck…Larry |
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10-11-17 | Bruins -129 v. Avalanche | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -129 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Boston Bruins (9:35 EST). The 1-1 Boston Bruins invade Colorado to take on the 2-1 Avalanche and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Note that this is the second game of a home and home set, with the Avs taking the first one in Boston by a score of 4-0. The B’s had 29 shots in that game, but weren’t able to get one past Semyon Varlamov. Boston turns to goaltender Tuukka Rask, who gave up three goals on 22 attempts. Rask was 17-14 with a 2.41 GAA on the road last year. He’s only 1-6 against the Avs throughout his career, despite posting a very respectable 2.00 GAA. Last season the Bruins averaged 2.83 GPG, while ranked 9th on the defensive end in conceding 2.55. The Avs averaged just 2.01 GPG last year, while ranked 30th in goals allowed in conceding 3.37. Last season Varlamov was 3-10 with a 3.34 GAA at home. I’ll point out though that Boston is 9-2 in its last 11 against the Western Conference, while Colorado is just 6-21 in its last 27 following a victory. Boston did well on the road last year and plays with revenge. Colorado has started nicely, but was an atrocious home team last season. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor and it’s one which I believe will prove to be the difference maker for the visitors tonight. Play on the Bruins. Good luck…Larry |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama +16.5 v. Troy | Top | 19-8 | Win | 100 | 76 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on South Alabama (8:00 EST). Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I do however think this is a few too many points to be giving up to this hungry 1-4 South Alabama Jaguars team. Conversely, it’s not too hard to imagine the surging 4-1 Troy Trojans “looking past” their lowly opponent tonight. There’s no question that this sets up as a classic “trap” for the home side after its epic 24-21 road win over LSU on September 30th. South Alabama also played on September 30th and fell 34-16 to Louisiana Tech. Note that this is a revenge game for the Jaguars after they fell to the Trojans 28-21 at home last year. USA struggled defensively last week, although it did hold Louisiana Tech to just 2 of 11 on third down. QB Cole Garvin was 21 of 45 for one TD and two INT’s, while RB Xavier Johnson had 89 yards on 12 carries. USA ranks near the bottom on both sides of the ball, but as mentioned off the top, I think it catches a break here facing a Troy team coming off a historic program victory. The Trojans gave up 428 yards on defense, but created four turnovers over LSU. QB Brandon Silvers had just 157 yards passing. On the year Troy is allowing 231 yards per game through the air. I’ll point out as well that Troy is 0-5 ATS in its last five following its bye, while USA is 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive ATS losses. These teams have historically played each other tough and all signs point to another competitive affair. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-11-17 | Nationals +142 v. Cubs | 5-0 | Win | 142 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Nationals (5:35 EST). With their backs against the wall, I like the Nationals to respond and take this series back to the Nation’s capital. The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (13-11, 4.67 ERA) who faced the Cubs once this year and who was excellent in giving up two runs over seven innings in the victory. Roark was serviceable on the road with a 7-5, 4.26 ERA record this season. Roark made his first postseason start in last year’s NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing two runs and seven hits over 4.1 innings in a no-decision. Note that he a solid second half, allowing three ERs or less in 11 of 13 starts. The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (14-10, 3.53) who makes his first start of the postseason after using a few extra days to strengthen his hamstring. Arrieta hasn't pitched since Sep 26, and he missed 2 1/2 weeks after straining the hamstring during a start on Sep 4. He says he's fine but who really knows? He has made nine career starts vs the Nats but only has ONE win, with a 5.48 ERA! Note that Washington is 4-1 (+3 units) in its last three after being held to one run or less in its prevoius contest, while Chicago is just 2-6 in its last eight after holding an opponent to one run or less in its previous contest. I think these pitchers are a “wash,” as either is capable of having a big game on any given night. I’m not counting out the hard-hitting and desperate Nat’s quite yet though. All in all, this is great value in my opinion. Play on Washington. UPDATE: Roark is out and Stephen Strasburg (15-4, 2.52 ERA) is in for Washington. This play is STILL VALID! Strasburg was battling an illness leading up to this one, but Dusty Baker is going to go with his ace in this pivotal moment. Note that Strasburg is 8-2 with a 2.26 ERA on the road. Play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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10-10-17 | Blue Jackets +108 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-1 | Win | 108 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 EST). Columbus won its opener 5-0 over the Islanders and then played in Chicago the following night and got hammered 5-1. CBJ starting goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky will be back between the pipes tonight after getting the game off against the Blackhawks. Last season Bobrovsky was 41-22 with a 2.06 GAA (including 16-13 with a 2.33 GAA on the road.) Note that he’s 8-5 with a 2.21 GAA lifetime against Carolina. Last year the Blue Jackets ranked sixth in the league in scoring with an average of 3.01 GPG, while ranked second defensively in conceding just 2.35 GPG. Carolina comes in off a 5-4 shootout win over the Wild. In net for the home side is Scott Darling, who was 18-20 with a 2.38 GAA with Chicago last season. This is his first career start against Columbus. Last year Carolina was ranked 20th in scoring with 2.59 GPG ,while ranked 18th in goals allowed with 2.80 per contest. I’ll point out that the Blue Jackets are a superb 13-3 in their last 16 when playing on two days rest, while the Hurricanes are just 1-6 in their last seven home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. As good as Darling has been, I’m still giving the nod in net to Bobrovsky. I’ll give the edge to the Blue Jackets offensively as well. All things considered, I think this is great value. Play on Columbus. Good luck…Larry |
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10-09-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +110 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Arizona Diamondbacks (10:05 EST). With their backs against the wall, I look for the hard-hitting Diamondbacks to battle back and grab Game 3. LA turns to Yu Darvish (10-12, 3.86 ERA) who was superb in nine starts for the Dodgers this year, posting a respectable 3.44 ERA and an elite 61/13 K/W in that span. Darvish was excellent on the road this season as well and really, it’s hard to say too many negative things about the hard-throwing right-hander. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time this evening though. The home side counters with its ace Zack Greinke (17-7, 3.20) who gave up four runs over six innings in a no-decision in the NL Wild Card Game against Colorado. Greinke has not been at his best over the last couple of weeks, but with those shaky performances now behind him, the veteran can settle down at home as he’ll look to improve upon his near-perfect 13-1 (2.87 ERA) record at Chase Field this season. I’ll additionally point out that the D'backs are 16-3 in Greinke's home starts in 2017 (includes wild card game), while Darvish owns the third-worst moneyline mark in MLB this year (minus-$1302). I thnk the shift in venue has a big impact on the Diamondbacks’ confidence. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +3 | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Bears (8:30 EST). The Vikings are 2-2 SU/ATS while the Bears are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Minnesota comes in off a listless 14-7 loss at home to Detroit. Starting QB Sam Bradford is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury. If Bradford does suit up for this one, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. The Vikes also lost rookie RB Dalvin Cook to a torn ACL last week when he fumbled the ball, a costly turnover which led to a Lions’ TD. Once Cook went down, the offense stalled and suffice it to say, I think that’s going to be the case again on Monday night. Minnesota’s backup QB Case Keenum was 16 of 30 for 210 yards. Chicago enters off a 35-14 loss at Green Bay with QB Mike Glennon under center in that one. Glennon is out for this one though, as the Bears turn to rookie Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky showed a lot of promise in the preseason and he’ll have a big opportunity here facing this less than 100% Vikings squad. The Bears’ pass defense was a bright spot in last week’s loss, holding Aaron Rodgers to just 179 passing yards (although he did throw four TD’s.) Trubisky will be leaning heavily on RB Jordan Howard, who has 302 yards and four TD’s. Chicago’s defense is going to be a big difference maker in my opinion though, as it allows 220.8 YPG through the air and just 85.5 YPG on the ground. And that’s bad news for Minnesota’s offense in my opinion, as right now the unit is a disaster. Trubisky is a rookie, but Vikes’ coach Mike Zimmer doesn’t have a lot of game tape on the kid yet. I think the door is wide open for an outright upset. That said, I’ll grab the points in the end. Good luck….Larry |
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10-09-17 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Capitals/Lightning. I base my selections on many different things. Sometimes it’s all about the players on the acutal field (or ice in this case.) Other times though it’s about scheduling, the overall situation each team finds itself in coming into a contest, or even strong or lop-sided trends. In this case I simply feel this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the under. Washington has opened the season with back-to-back high-scoring victories, beating Ottawa 5-4 in a shootout on Opening Night, before a convincing 6-1 win at home over Montreal on Saturday. With a matchup against rival Pittsburgh at home on Wednesday, this one does indeed set up as a “trap” game for the Capitals in many respects. Tampa also comes in off back-to-back high-scoring games to open the season, beating the Panthers at home 5-3 on Opening Nght, before then falling 5-4 in Florida the following night. With three whole days off after this game, before a meeting at home against the Penguins on Friday, this also does set up as a bit of a trap for the home side as well. While I’m expecting a very competitive affair, I think it’ll be the starting goaltenders which are the mainy story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. These teams feature high-powered offenses, but they’re also backed by some of the best goaltending on the planet. A great overall “situational” play. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-09-17 | Blackhawks v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Hawks/Leafs (7:05 EST). I base my selections on many different things. Sometimes it’s all about the players on the acutal field (or ice in this case.) Other times though it’s about scheduling, the overall situation each team finds itself in coming into a contest, or even strong or lop-sided trends. In this case I simply feel this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the under. The Blackhawks come in off two wild, high-scoring affairs to open the season, clobbering the Penguins 10-1, before then smashing Columbus 5-1. Now Chicago transitions for its first road trip of the season and can’t help itself in “looking ahead” to its game in Montreal tomorrow night. The Leafs have also opened the season with back-to-back blowout victories, handling Winnipeg 7-2 on the road and then beating the Rangers 8-5 at home on Saturday night. While I’m expecting a very competitive affair, I think it’ll be the starting goaltenders which are the mainy story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. These teams feature high-powered offenses, but they’re also backed by some of the best goaltending on the planet. A great overall “situational” play. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-09-17 | Indians v. Yankees -147 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST). I had a play on New York yesterday and I think the home side will once again take advantage of familiar surroundings. The visitors hand the ball to Josh Tomlin (10-9, 4.98 ERA) who finished the season strong after an up-and-down overall 2017, posting a 3.52 ERA over 30.2 innings of work in September. Note that Tomlin was 3-3 with a 4.57 ERA on the road and just 4-7 with a 5.47 ERA in all “night” games. The Yanks counter with Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98) who was destroyed by the Twins in the Wild Card Game, lucky that his counterpart Ervin Santana was just as bad. Starts like that though have truly been few and far between for Severino this season and I think he’s going to bounce back in fine fashion here. Severino has to be feeling pretty confident as he’s 8-5 with a 3.71 ERA at home and 12-4 with a 2.37 ERA in all “night” games. I’m not counting out New York and think that the home side is well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. Play on the Yankees. UPDATE: Tomlin is out and Trevor Bauer is in. This play is STILL ACTIVE: Bauer looked good in Game 1 in Cleveland, goign 6.2 scoreless, while striking out eight. Bauer though owned a 4.54 ERA on the road last year and clearly faces a stiff test with such a quick turnaround. Good luck…Larry |
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10-09-17 | Devils v. Sabres -126 | 6-2 | Loss | -126 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Buffalo Sabres (3:05 EST). I base my selections on many different things. Sometimes it’s all about the players on the acutal field (or ice in this case.) Other times though it’s about scheduling, the overall situation each team finds itself in coming into a contest, or even strong or lop-sided trends. In this case I simply feel this is a great spot for 0-2 Buffalo to finally get off the schneid. The Devils are off a satisfying 4-1 Opening Night win over the Avalanche and I think they’ll get caught “looking past” the lowly Sabres today, with upcoming games on Wednesday at Toronto and then at home against Washington on Friday. Buffalo on the other hand has three whole nights off after this before an extended West Coast road trip. For all intents and purposes and at this early stage of the season, this has almost become a “must win” game for Buffalo. As metioned off the top, I think this is a great situational play. Play on the Sabres. Good luck…Larry |
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10-09-17 | Astros v. Red Sox +107 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Red Sox (1:05 EST). I had a play on the Red Sox in their 10-3 win in Game 3 in front of the home town crowd and suffice it to say, I look for them to once again ride the wave of emotion and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62 ERA) who has had a lengthy time off between his last regular season start (a 3-2 win over the Red Sox on September 30th.) Morton was dominant at home this year (10-3, 3.34) and pedestrian on the road (4-4, 4.17). The home side counters with Rick Porcello (11-17, 4.65) who posted a 5.93 ERA over his last five starts of the regular season. Porcello struggled for the most of the year, but catches a break squaring off against Morton here. Also note that Boston is 3-1 (+1.9 units) in its last four after scoring ten or more runs in its previous contest, while Houston is just 1-2 (-1.2 units) in its last three after allowing ten runs or more in its previous outing. I like Boston to keep its hopes alive and take advantage of familiar surroundings once again. Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-17 | Indians v. Yankees +102 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 102 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Yankees (7:35 EST). The Yanks are down but not out in my opinion. I think Masahiro Tanaka will outduel Carlos Carrasco as I expect New York to bounce back in familiar surroundings. Carrasco (18-6, 3.29 ERA) comes in off a superb season, posting 226 strikeouts over 200 innings of work. It’s hard to say anything negative about Carrasco, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s at the wrong place at the wrong time. Tanaka (13-12, 4.74) struggled through September, but turned in a gem in his final outing, going seven shutout innings while posting 15 strikeouts. Note that Tanaka has been at his best at home this year by going 9-5 with a 3.22 ERA. The Tribe were a great road team, but the Yanks were dominant at home this year as well (52-30.) I’m not counting out the hungry, hard-hitting home side quite yet and in my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks v. Rams UNDER 47 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 141 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is the under Hawks/Rams (4:05 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think points will be at premium in this divisional contest. Both teams come in off high-scoring blowouts, with Seattle stomping Indianpolis, while LA rolled over Dallas 35-30. The Rams surprisingly come into this one with the top offense in the league, but I think it’s finally going to stumble here, facing one of the better defensive units it will see all season. Seattle’s offense has so far been hit or miss this year. Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has seven TD’s and two INT’s and a 94 passer rating. So far Seattle has conceded 19.3 PPG, including holding every opponent to under 200 yards passing to this point. The Hawks lost RB Chris Carson, which means that Thomas Rawls is going to get another shot. A one dimensional offense has become even more so unfortunately for Seattle. Jared Goff and the Rams’ offense has looked sharp, but clearly he faces his stiffest test to date. Expect to see a heavy dose of RB Todd Gurley in this one, as he enters among the rushing leaders. Also note that Gurley leads LA in receiving yards as well. I’ll point out that Seattle has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four against the division, while LA has seen the total go under in eight of its last 13 in the same position. A big game for both teams. All signs point to more of a “chess match,” where field position becomes paramount, rather than a “track meet” in my professional opinion. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-17 | Astros v. Red Sox +134 | 3-10 | Win | 134 | 30 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Red Sox (3:35 EST). The Red Sox are down, but not out in my opinion. I like Doug Fister to match the Astros’ Brad Peacock inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I’m backing the desperate home side. Peacock (13-2, 3.00 ERA) actually comes in off a win against these very Red Sox last Thursday, giving up two runs off four hits over five innings. Peacock is a big reason why the Astros are in the position they are right now and it’s difficult to say anything negative about the hard-throwing right-hander. I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. Fister (5-9, 4.88), who stumbled his way into the postseason after posting a 9.18 ERA over his final 16.2 innings of work, will now look to turn things around in this pivotal moment. Fister has the experience to bounce back in these types of situations and he certainly won’t be intimidated in this spot. Note that Boston is 44-27 (+11 units) this year following a loss. I’ll also point out that Peacock is 1-1 with an 8.53 ERA and 1.974 WHIP over 12.2 innings in three career starts at Fenway Park (Fister is 5-9 with a 4.35 ERA lifetime at Fenway.) I’m not counting out the hard-hitting Red Sox quite yet. Great price, play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-17 | Chargers v. Giants -3.5 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. Four weeks into the 2017 season, four teams remain win-less. The list includes the Browns, Chargers, Giants and Niners. Two of those teams, the now-LA Chargers and the NY Giants, will go head-to-head at MetLife Stadium in Week 5 with one team (barring a tie), getting off the schnied. The Chargers' schnied is quite a bit 'bigger' than the Giants', as while New York made the postseason in 2016 (lost badly at Green Bay in the wild card round), the Chargers are coming off a season in which the team was 5-11 and lost its final five games. That means the Chargers enter this game on a nine-game losing streak, with an 0-8-1 ATS record, as well (Opening Week push at the Broncos in 2017 is LA's lone non-loss ATS in that stretch). The Chargers narrowly lost to the Eagles 26-24 last Sunday, the team's third straight home contest. QB Philip Rivers threw for 347 yards and two TDs (covering 22 and 38 yards) on 22 of 38 passing. The Chargers had a pair of 100-yard receivers, as Keenan Allen (24 catches on the season) caught five balls for 138 yards, while Tyrell Williams caught five passes for 115 yards. RB Melvin Gordon struggled once again (10 carries for just 22 yards) and has only 168 yards (3.1 YPC) after four games. LA is averaging only 67.5 YPG (3.6 YPC), which ranks 29th among the NFL's 32 teams. LA's offense wasn't the problem in Week 4, as the defense allowed 454 yards of total offense, while being dominated in the time of TOP battle, allowing Philly to hold onto the ball for just over 39 of the game's 60 minutes. The Giants also lost a close one in Week 4, 25-23 at Tampa Bay, when the Buccaneers kicked a game-winning 34-yard FG on the contest's final play. Eli Manning completed 30 of 49 pass for 288 yards and two TDs (no INTs) plus added a 14-yard TD run. Wayne Gallman led the team with 42 rushing yards on 11 carries but on the season, the Giants have run the ball worse than the Chargers, averaging only 59.3 YPG (3.2 YPC) to rank 31st. The Giants D allowed only 17.8 PPG in 2016, tops in the NFC and second-best in the entire NFL to New England. However, the Giants allowed the Bucs 434 yards of total offense, despite the Giants offense holding onto the ball for over 34 minutes. New York checks in allowing 23.8 PPG through four games, which is SIX points higher than last season's average. The Chargers actually may get get more crowd support at MetLife than they do in their own StubHub Center, as it's quickly become obvious that the LA fans have shown little or no interest in welcoming the team from San Diego. As for New York fans, the team's 0-4 start has made “Fire Ben McAdoo” a popular search topic on Google. Both teams have significant issues but "someone has to win!" My bet says it's the Giants, as Eli has a plethora of receiving options in WRs like OBJ, Shepard and Marshall plus rookie TE Engram. New York also just may be able to get a running game going against a Chargers rush D which is allowing 163.5 YPPG (31st) on 4.8 YPC. The Giants WON'T be making the postseason in 2017 but after an 0-4 start, ENOUGH is ENOUGH! Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -2.5 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 137 h 27 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST). The Bills are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS, while the Bengals are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Clearly not many would have predicted that this would be the case for these teams at this point of the season. Buffalo looks primed for a letdown here though after its big 23-17 road win against the Falcons. It’s hard to win on the road. It’s even harder to win back-tp-back road games, let alone cover both as well. The Bills have come a long way no doubt, but they now face a super hungry Bengals team which comes in off its first win of the year after downing the Browns 31-17 last weekend. Note that Cincinnati plays with revenge here as well after Buffalo won 16-12 on the road last season. Buffalo took advantage of an injured Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu last week. QB Tyrod Taylor was an unimpressive 12 of 20 for 182 yards, a TD. The Bills have looked good, not great in my opinion. The Bengals have obviously looked pretty bad, but they sure looked a lot better in last week’s victory over Cleveland. QB Andy Dalton was 25 of 30 for 286 yards, four TD’s and zero INT’s. After a slow start, Dalton now has six TD’s over his last two games. WR AJ Green had five catches for 63 yards and a TD. The Bengals’ have looked much better defensively as well after a slower start to the season, last week allowing only 215 total yards, including just 45 rushing. A great situational play in my opinion. Buffalo gets caught “looking ahead” to its bye-week, while the desperate home side puts the foot on the gas from start to finish. Play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-17 | 49ers v. Colts | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 137 h 26 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). The 49ers are 0-4 SU and 3-1 ATS, while the Colts are just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. San Fran looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its deflating 18-15 OT road loss to Arizona last week. After beating Cleveland at home, the Colts fell 46-18 in Seattle last weekend. So far the 49ers are ranked 26th in the league in scoring at 16.5 PPG, while ranked 24th in the league on the defensive side in conceding 23.5. QB Brian Hoyer was 24 of 49 for 234 yards and an INT last week. The defense looked decent, limiting the Cardinals to just 51 yards on the ground. Indianapolis is ranked 25th in scoring with 17.8 PPG, while ranked 32nd in the league on the defensive side in conceding 34.0 PPG. Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett was 16 of 29 for 157 yards, a TD and an INT last week. Indianapolis actually led the game 15-10 at the break, before then falling apart in the second half. A couple of really lousy teams going head-to-head in this one, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this particular matchup. I’ll also point out that San Francisco is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 against teams with losing records, while Indianapolis is 26-8 ATS in its last 24 in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Colts. Good luck…Larry |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 137 h 26 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the surging visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Carolina beat the Pats on the road 33-30 last weekend, while Detroit comes in off a listless 14-7 win over the Vikings. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had three TD passes and also ran another one in on the ground. The defense looked a little suspect, but look at who the opponent was. The unit bent, but it did not break: “It can be a catalyst, a stepping-stone,” Panthers’ Coach Ron Rivera assessed afterwards. “It kind of felt a little bit like what happened a couple of years ago when we went to Seattle. They were the watermark for us, as far as the NFC was concerned. So we were able to have success there, and from that point we had success.” Detroit was trailing 7-3 at half time last week, before coming back in the second half for the victory. So far the Lions have looked good, not great in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that Carolina is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 250 or more passing yards in its previous contest, while Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after allowing 15 points or less in its previous outing. I like Newton to build off his last performance and give the Lions’ defense everything it can handle. Play on Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | California +27.5 v. Washington | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR is on California (10:45 EST). Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. But with three “cream puffs” on deck, including tonight’s game against Cal, then up next against Arizona State and UCLA respectively, I absolutely believe that the 5-0 Huskies are going to come in a little content and “flat footed” in this one. The Huskies really get into the meat of their schedule after that with games at home against Oregon, and then at Stanford, followed by Utah and Washington State. Not surprisingly, this is a revenge game for the Bears after they were smoked 66-27 by Washington last year. So far Cal averages 27.8 PPG and concedes 28.2. QB Ross Bowers has 1,357 yards, nine TD’s and eight picks on the year. Last week against the Ducks he had 255 yards, three TD’s and zero INT’s and suffice it to say, I think he’s going to carry over that momentum here. Washington averages 44.0 PPG, which is ranked tenth. So far it’s allowed just 10.8 PPG, which is ranked fifth overall. QB Jake Browning had 293 passing yards, three TD’s and an INT last week, while Myles Gaskin had 115 yards on the ground and another major score. I’ll point out though that Cal is 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog, while Washington is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU wins and interestingly just 3-4 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October. The schedule isn’t in the Bears favor to get a bowl invite this season and while an outright win is almost assuredly out of the question in this particular matchup, I believe that the situation is greatly in their favor and combined with the strong trends listed above, I will indeed grab up all these points in the end! Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | Kings v. Sharks -122 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -122 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Jose Sharks (10:30 EST). LA beat the Flyers 2-0 on Thursday. The night before Philadelphia was in San Jose beating the Sharks 5-3. San Jose started off slowly in that one and was never able to dig itself out of the early hole, but with a night off to re-focus, I like the Sharks to bounce back. LA was ranked just 25th in the league in scoring last year with 2.43 GPG and it’s hard to judge exactly where the offense is at after the game against the Flyers. The Kings were solid defensively in conceding just 2.45 GPG and the defense will once again be a strength of the team with goaltender Jon Quick between the pipes. The Sharks averaged 2.67 GPG last year, while conceding 2.44 (ranked 5th). Martin Jones looked uncharacteristically shaky in net on Opening night, but there’s no reason not to think that he’ll bounce back in fine fashion himself (note that he is 6-4 with a 2.19 GAA lifetime against LA.) I’ll point out that the Kings are a terrible 6-10 (-7.8 units) in their last 16 after shutting out their opponent in their prevous game, while the Sharks are a superb 28-13 (+13 units) in their last 41 after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game. For all the reasons listed above, play on San Jose. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | Stanford -3 v. Utah | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 149 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Stanford (10:15 EST). Stanford is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, while Utah is 4-0 SU/ATS. The Cardinal won their second straight conference game, most recently getting the better of Arizona State 34-24 at home on Saturday. The Utes enter off a 30-24 road win over Arizona last week. Utah has won three straight in the series, although they last played in 2014. Last week Stanford held a 501-409 advantage in total offense, but lost the first down battle 22-17. The Cardinal though forced two turnovers. So far Stanford is ranked 24th in the nation in scoring with 39 PPG, while tied for 62nd in scoring defense in allowing just 25.4. QB Keller Chryst has 509 passing yards on the season, four TD’s and two INT’s, while KJ Costello has 376 yards passing, three TD’s and also 40 rushing yards and two more TD’s on the ground. The Utes won last week despite getting outgained 448-341. Utah though forced five turnovers, which wound up being the difference maker in the end. So far Utah is ranked 38th in scoring offense with 35 PPG, while ranked 17th in conceding 17.3. QB Tyler Huntley is 88 of 120 passing for 966 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s on the year. RB Zack Moss has 265 yards and two major scores. I’ll point out though that Stanford is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU wins and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 off a win against a conference rival, while Utah is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference foe. I think the Stanford offense will prove to be the difference here. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | Jets v. Flames -140 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Calgary Flames (10:00 EST). The 0-1 Jets are in Calgary to take on the 0-1 Flames. Here’s another one where I feel that the “home ice advantage” will in the end prove to be the pivotal deciding factor. The Jets lost 7-2 at home to the Leafs, while the Flames fell 3-0 in Edmonton. Winnipeg was a decent offensive team last year, averaging 3.00 GPG, but it was lousy on the defensive end in conceding 3.11. It doesn’t appear as if the Jets’ defense will be much better this season. Goaltender Steve Mason allowed five goals on 20 shots. Note that last year Mason was 9-16 with a 2.84 GAA on the road. Calgary averaged 2.71 GPG, and conceded 2.67. Mike Smith stopped 42 of 45 shots in the opening night loss, but his offense was unable to provide him any support. I’ll point out though that Winnipeg is just 3-8 in its last 11 after scoring two goals or less in its previous contest, while Calgary is 8-1 in its last nine when playing on two days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play the Flames. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is the under Diamondbacks/Dodgers (9:05 EST). After yesterday’s 9-5 blowout victory for the Dodgers, I’m expecting a much lower-scoring “pitchers duel” in Game 2. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (15-5, 2.89 ERA) who gave up one run over 2.1 innings of relief in Wednesday’s 11-8 wild-card victory over the Rockies. Ray put together his best ever regular season and he has to be feeling extremely confident tonight, as note that he’d go a spectacular 8-1 with a tiny 1.86 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Rich Hill (12-8, 3.32) who domianted the Padres in his final regular season start, going seven scoreless and scattering two hits while striking out ten in the process for his third straight decision. To go along with his respectable 3.32 ERA, Hill also owns an elite 1.09 WHIP and 166/49 K/W (note that he was 7-5 with a 2.77 ERA at home this year as well.) Additionally I’ll point out that Arizona has seen the total go under the number in two of its last three after allowing nine or more runs, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four after scoring nine or more runs. We’ve seen plenty of scoring so far in the MLB playoffs, but I believe that all signs now finally point to a classic “duel” in this particular matchup. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | Michigan State +12.5 v. Michigan | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 146 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* BLOWOUT is on Michigan State (7:30 EST). Michigan has looked pretty good so far in going 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS.) In the Wolverines latest outing they got the better of Purdue 28-10 back on September 23rd. The Spartans enter off a 17-10 win over Iowa to open conference play. When these teams played last year, it was Michigan that pulled away for the 32-23 road win. It’s back-to-back gruelling affairs for the 3-1 Spartans, with a game next week at 3-1 Minnesota. Essentially, this two week stretch will determine whether or note MSU will contend for the conference crown or not and while clearly the odds are stacked against it, I think it’s safe to say that we’re going to see its best effort this weekend. MSU jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week and went on to win by three points. QB Brian Lewerke threw two TD passes to Felton Davis III in the first quarter. The Hawkeyes though held the Spartans to just 88 yards on 40 carries. Defensively MSU looked sharp though, holding Iowa to just 226 yards of total offense, including 19 rushing yards. So far the Michigan State offense is averaging 429.5 YPG, while the defense is conceding just 247 YPG (ranked fourth overall thus far.) Last week the Wolverines posted 423 yards of offense, while holding the Boilermakers to just 30 yards rushing on 20 carries. Michigan QB Wilton Speight was injured early and got replaced by John O’Korn, who had 270 yards passing, with one TD and one INT. The Wolverines defense leads the nation right now in conceding just 203.1 YPG. I’ll point out though that the Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last five following their bye week, while the Spartans are 3-1 ATS in their last four after allowing ten points or less in their previous contest. Ultimately I feel that the Spartans’ defense can keep the team competitive in this one late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | Michigan State v. Michigan OVER 39.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Week 6 Goin Over Total is on Michigan St/Michigan Over at 7:30 ET. Michigan State came into the 2016 season off years of 13-1, 11-2 and 12-2. So it was no surprise that the Spartans were ranked No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll. It was business as usual for MSU, after opening with a win over Furman (an FCS 'warmup') and an impressive 36-28 upset of then-No. 18 Notre Dame, 36-28 as a TD underdog. However, after rising to No. 8 in the AP poll after beating the Fighting Irish, the Spartans would win only one more game, 49-0 over Rutgers, a school which would finish 2-10 last season, including 0-9 in Big Ten play. MSU went from averaging 29.8 PPG to scoring 24.1 and from allowing 21.7 PPG to giving up 27.8. With just four starters returning on each side of the ball, there were almost no preseason expectations for the Spartans, entering the 2017 season. For the Spartans' in-state rival (and "Big Brother"), 2017 marked Jim Harbaugh's third season at Ann Arbor. He had led Michigan to back-to-back 10-3 seasons in the first two and his Wolverines opened No. 11 in this season's AP preseason poll. Michigan is currently 4-0 (1-0 in the Big Ten) and ranked No. 7. Wilton Speight and John O'Korn battled for the starting QB job in the spring, with Speight winning but O'Korn came off the bench to replace an injured Speight last week vs Purdue and completed 18 of 26 passes for 270 yards and a TD. Speight will miss "multiple weeks," according to Harbaugh, so it's now O'Korn's job. The Wolverines average a modest 223.0 YPG passing (72nd), regardless of who has been under center and the ground game is averaging 184.2 YPG (53rd). Senior RB Ty Isaac has come out of nowhere to lead the team with 356 yards on 6.2 YPC. Michigan was a terrific defensive team in 2016 but just ONE of 11 starters returned for 2017. However, it's been "business as usual" (actually, better than usual), with Michigan allowing 13.5 PPG to rank 8th in the nation and just 203.2 YPG overall, which tops the nation. Getting back to MSU, the Spartans have opened 3-1 SU & ATS but one has to acknowledge that all four games have come at home. QB Brian Lewerke is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 963 yards with eight TDs and just two interceptions, plus he also leads the way with 248 rushing yards (2 TDs). MSU averages 187.5 YPG on the ground (52nd) and has averaged 24.5 PPG (95th). Defensively, Michigan State is allowing just 18.0 PPG (21st) on 248.3 YPG (4th). A victory here would be a huge "signature win" that the Spartans dearly need and note that Michigan State has covered its last NINE meetings with Michigan. At first blush, with Michigan's dominant defense and this being a bitter rivalry, why play the over? I noted above that this is MSU's first game away from East Lansing and in the team's lone real test of 2017, Notre Dame rang up 38 points on the Spartans in a 20-point win in East Lansing. However, note that the Spartans were able to put up 496 yards against the Irish, despite scoring just 18 points (three giveaways didn't help). This is Harbaugh's third game against Michigan State, a crushing last-second 27-23 loss in 2015 and a 32-23 win in 2016 (closer than the final score). Note the 50 and 55-point final scores. This over number opened 41 1/2 and has moved lower. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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10-07-17 | Canadiens v. Capitals -135 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Capitals (7:00 EST). A couple of 1-0 teams collide on Saturday night. These clubs are expected to be contending for the Eastern Conference title at the end of the season, but I think the home ice advantage is a very real factor in this particular matchup. Montreal needed OT to beat the Sabres 3-2 in a shootout in its opener, while Washington also prevailed 5-4 in a shootout over Ottawa on Thursday. Washington took two of three in the season series last year, but it was the road side that prevailed in each meeting. Certainly that’s added motivation for the Capitals tonight. I’ll point out as well that Montreal is just 2-5 in its last seven when playing on one days rest, while Washington is 4-0 in its last four home games against a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. With a tough game at the Rangers tomorrow night, I think the Habs get caught looking ahead. All things considered, I feel this is a great price. Play on the Capitals. Good luck…Larry |
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10-07-17 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +17 | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on North Carolina (12:00 EST). Notre Dame is 4-1 SU/ATS, while UNC is just 1-4 SU/ATS. Am I suggesting to you that you should “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel though that this one sets up as a bit of a natural “letdown” spot for the Irish, while I expect the desperate home side to risk life and limb to try and pull off an upset this afternoon. Ultimately in my opinion, this is a few too many points for Notre Dame to be giving up here. The Irish most recently smashed Miami-Ohio 52-17, while the Tar Heels are off a 33-7 road loss at Georgia Tech. Notre Dame RB Josh Adams had 159 rushing yards last week to go along with two TD’s. QB Brandon Wimbush was just 7 of 18 for 119 yards, but with three TD strikes. Overall the Irish defense was unspectacular, allowing 377 total yards. Notre Dame’s biggest weaknesses are its passing game (just 166.6 YPG thus far) and also in defending the pass (conceding 241.6 YPG.) The Tar Heels have had a difficult opening schedule, falling 47-35 to Louisville, 35-30 to Cal and 27-17 to Duke. UNC’s loss to Georgia Tech last week was its first true “dud” of the campaign. QB Chaz Surratt was 18 of 30 for 141 yards, no TD’s and a pick. The run game produced just 106 yards. Surratt so far has 988 yards, five TD’s and two INT’s on the season. So far the ground attack averages 142.4 YPG. The Tar Heels’ defense has been their weak point, but note that Notre Dame is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory, while UNC is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 following an ATS loss. The Irish are the better overall team, but I expect the Tar Heels’ offense to have its opportunities today against what I think to be a rather suspect Notre Dame defensive unit. As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for the upset, but I will be grabbing all those points! Good luck…Larry |
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10-06-17 | Boise State v. BYU +7 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -115 | 125 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR is on BYU (10:15 EST). Boise State is 2-2 SU/ATS, while BYU is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. Boise State comes in off its bye after getting hammered 42-23 at home by Virginia. BYU lost 40-24 on the road at Utah State on Saturday. Note that BYU plays with revenge today after falling 28-27 to the Broncos on the road last October 20th. The Broncos were outgained 440-383 by the Cavaliers. So far Boise State is ranked 69th in scoring offense with an average of 29.8 PPG, while tied for 86th in scoring defense in conceding 29 PPG. Broncos’ QB Montell Cozart has just 416 yards passing, six TD’s and one INT. He leads the team in rushing though with 191 yards on the gruond and two scores. QB Brett Rypien had 521 yards and TWO INT’s. BYU had a 21-7 lead a minute into the second quarter, before then collapsing and allowing 33 unanswered points to Utah State. The Cougars actually held a 396-288 edge in total yards and a 20-14 advantage in first downs. Seven turnovers were the difference maker though. So far BYU averages 15.8 PPG, while allowing 26.4. Cougars’ QB Tanner Mangum had 466 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. He splits time between Koy Detmer Jr. and Beau Hoge. Ula Tolautau leads the way on the ground with 188 yards rushing and a TD. I’ll point out though that BYU has excelled in this spot for bettors of late, going 12-7 ATS when playing with six days rest, 8-7 ATS in its last 15 at home and 5-3 ATS in its last eight against the Mountain West, while Boise State has struggled in this position by going just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with two or more weeks of rest and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 non-conference contests. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think that the hungry/desperate home side will at the very least keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-06-17 | Golden Knights v. Stars -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PUCK-LINE GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Dallas Stars (8:30 EST). I think the talent and chemistry level discrepancies on the ice tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 goals for the small “plus-money” return. The Golden Knights make their NHL debut and they’ll have Marc Andre Fleury in net. James Neal from the Predators is also one of the main stars of the team. Note though that Neal is listed as quetionable for this one, so if he does play, it will likely be at under 100% capacity. Overall the offense looks decent for the Knights, but clearly the team will need some time to build chemistry. Calvin Pickard is Fleury’s backup. Dallas missed the postseason last year, after finishing with the most points in the West the year before. The Stars added Alexander Radulov, who had 18 goals for the Habs last season. Ben Bishop was 18-20 with a 2.54 GAA for the Lightning and Kings last year and no doubt is a big upgrade between the pipes for Dallas on the whole. There will be on complacency or mercy from the Stars tonight after their dismal season in 2016/17. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The book is still clearly out on the Vegas Knights, who I expect will stumble and throw up the white flag early in this one. Play on Dallas on the puck-line. Good luck…Larry |
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10-06-17 | Cubs +154 v. Nationals | 3-0 | Win | 154 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Cubs (7:30 EST). Ultimately I believe that Kyle Hendricks and the defending champs have much more than just “punchers chance” in this one. Hendricks (7-5, 3.03 ERA) has been “lights out” since the mid-summer classic, posting a tiny 2.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 72/19 K/W spanning 13 trips to the hill. Note that Hendricks has been particularly sharp in this position all year as well by going 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA on the road and 6-0 with a 2.52 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Stephen Strasburg (15-4, 2.52) who went 7.2 scoreless innings against the Pirates in his last regular season start. Since coming back from the DL, Strasburg has posted a 0.85 ERA over eight starts. It’s hard to say anything negative about Strasburg, so I won’t bother. I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time today. Note that Chicago is 3-2 (+2.2 units) in its last five as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Washington is just 22-23 (-10.6 units) this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. I think Hendricks can match Strasburg inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the under-rated defending champion underdog. Play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs +6 | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 73 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:25 EST). While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the improving home side to give the defending champs everything they can handle today. The Pats are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while Tampa is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. It’s a short-week, which almost always benefits the home side (for obvious reasons.) Last week the Bucs came from behind to beat the Giants 25-23, while New England comes to town off a humbling 33-30 setback at home to Carolina. New England’s defense is a mess right now and I don’t foresee things getting easier in this hostile environment. The Pats’ struggled against the mobile Cam Newton, allowing him to throw for 316 yards and a three TD’s, as well as rush for 44 and another major score. Remember, the Pats also gave up 44 points to the Chiefs on Opening Night (I had KC in that one.) And that doesn’t bode well facing the extremely mobile Jameis Winston who was 22 of 38 for 332 yards and three TD’s with no picks last week. RB Jacquizz Rodgers added 83 yards on the ground. The Bucs’ defense looked stout as well, allowing just 379 yards to the Giants. Winston isn’t getting nearly enough respect in my opinion, as he’s going to be able to pick apart this Pats’ suspect secondary. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Buccaneers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State +3 | Top | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 99 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina State (7:00 EST). Both teams are 4-1 SU/ATS. Louisville comes in off a 55-10 smashing of Murray State, while NC State hung on for a tough 33-25 victory at home over Syracuse last weekend. Note that this is a “revenge” game for the home side tonight after Louisville crushed the Wolfpack 54-13 at home last season. Louisville QB Lamar Jackson was 18 of 26 for 249 yards and three TD’s last week, while also rushing for 100 yards and another major score. Jackson has looked better the last two weeks after a loss to Clemson, but clearly the competition has been “vanilla.” The Cardinals defense looked horrible in the loss to the Tigers, but the unit has looked better the last two weeks against the weaker competition. NC State was in a potential letdown spot against the Orange last Saturday after a big road win at Florida State the previous weekend, but the Wolfpack were clicking early and went into the break with a 26-7 lead. Nyheim Hines had 115 rushing yards and a TD, while Jaylen Samuels had 74 yards and a major score. Pack’ QB Ryan Finley was 20 of 33 for 186 yards and a TD. Like the Cardinals, NC State has so far been very adept on both sides of the ball this season. Note though that Louisville is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while NC State is 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with winning records and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories. Louisville has already shown to struggle against better teams and I believe that will once again be the case here. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on NC State. Good luck…Larry |
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10-05-17 | Wild v. Red Wings +122 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 122 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Red Wings (7:30 EST). The Red Wings open their season in their brand new state of the art building, the Little Caesars Arena and I think the home side will ride the wave of emotion to a solid victory. Minnesota went out in the first round in five games to St. Louis last year. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk was 40-19-5 with a 2.25 GAA. He’s 4-2-4 with a 2.68 GAA lifetime against Detroit. The Red Wings missed the playoffs last year, which is a rarity. Jimmy Howard gets the call in net for the home side, he was 10-11-1 with a 2.10 GAA last season. He’s been dominant against the Wild throughout his career going 13-3-3 with a 2.16 GAA. After winning just 17 home games at Joe Louis last year, you can bet that the proud Red Wings will be looking tor a much better performance in their new arena this time around. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 3-7 in its last ten on the road, while Detroit is 20-7 in its last 27 against the Wild at home. All signs point to the slight home dog as the correct call here. Good luck…Larry |
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10-05-17 | Canadiens v. Sabres +112 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 50 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Buffalo Sabres (7:00 EST). Montreal won the Atlantic last season, while Buffalo was last in the conference. These teams split a pair of games last year though. The Habs would then go on to lose in six games in the first round to the Rangers. Defenseman Andrei Markov and Alexander Radulov are gone and Johanthan Drouin and Karl Alzner are in for Montreal now. Carey Price was 37-25 wiith a 2.33 GAA last year. Overall Montreal was 15th in scoring last season with 2.72 GPG, while ranked fourth in goals allowed with 2.41 GPG. Buffalo averaged 2.48 GPG, ranked 24th. It’s interesting to note though that the Sabres were No. 1 in power play conversion with 24.3 percent. Buffalo conceded 2.82 GPG, ranked 19th. Robin Lehner was 23-34 with a 2.68 GAA, including 13-19 with a 2.59 GAA at home. Over the long-term, Price gets the nod in net, but on Opening Night, I’m calling these goaltenders a wash. Buffalo looked strong against Montreal last year and has a big opportunity in front of the home town crowd. I expect the Sabres to ride the wave of emotion to a solid opening night victory. Good luck…Larry |
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10-05-17 | Predators v. Bruins -118 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Bruins (7:00 EST). Nashville lost to Pittsburgh in the Stanley Cup Final, while Boston lost in six games to Ottawa in the first round. There’s only one way the Predators can go this year in my opinion and that’s not up. Nashville’s run to the Cup was awesome, but regression does seem imminent. Note that the team lost Mike Fisher and James Neal. One big addition was Nick Bonino from the Penguins. Nashville ranked 11th in scoring last year with 2.90 GPG, while ranked 15th in goals allowed with 2.68. Goaltender Pekka Rinne was 31-28 with a 2.42 GAA last season. The Bruins were ranked 13th in scoring with 2.83 GPG, while ranked ninth in goals allowed in giving up 2.55 per contest. Tuukka Rask was 37-25 with a 2.33 GAA last year, including 20-11 with a 2.07 GAA at home. I think the goaltenders are clearly a “wash” on Opening Night. Home ice advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real factor though. I like Boston to take advantage and I expect Nashville to stumble. Good luck…Larry |
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10-05-17 | Red Sox v. Astros -117 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (4:05 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one. These pitchers are pretty even and so too are these line-ups. Ultimately though I believe that the home field advantage will prove to be a difference maker in Game 1. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) who faltered a bit in the second half after a blistering first for his new team. In the end though Sale finished with a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 308 strikeouts. The home side counters with Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36) who since coming over to the Astros has posted a 1.06 ERA, 0.65 WHIP to go along with 43 strikeouts in 34 innings of work. Note that Verlander was 8-2 with a 2.45 ERA in all “home” situations this season. It’s hard to believe that I’m giving Verlander the slight nod over Sale here. At the start of the year Sale was untouchable, but the Red Sox’ southpaw has been average over the second half. Verlander on the other hand is peaking at this exact moment and I’m expecting the veteran to take advantage of friendly surroundings. Play on the Astros. Good luck…Larry |
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10-04-17 | Flames v. Oilers -148 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 37 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* OPENING NIGHT PERFECT STORM is on the Edmonton Oilers (10:05 EST). At the start of any season you want to be a little bit cautious as you try to get a firm “read” on the teams. Certainly the NHL is no exception. Like the NFL and NBA, preseason NHL is not a good indicator whatsoever on how a team will perform once the regular season gets underway. For this pick I’m basing it mostly on common sense. With Connor McDavid leading the way, Edmonton has a very legitimate shot at a Stanley Cup run. The Oilers were one of the biggest surprises last year and there are big expectations in the “City Of Champions” this season as well. These teams played four times last season and the Oilers came out on top in each instance, winning 7-4 on October 12th, 5-3 on October 14th, 2-1 on January 14th and 7-3 on January 21st. Home ice advantage clearly can’t be taken for granted on Opening Night. The signing of Jaromir Jagr certainly didn’t make the Flames any younger or faster. All signs point to a rout. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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10-04-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 34 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is the over Rockies/Diamondbacks (8:05 EST). Anything can happen in a “one and done” format. Both Jon Gray and Zack Greinke are coming off superb campaigns. Both the Rockies and Diamondbacks are also clearly coming off big seasons as they look to punch their respective tickets to the NLDS. What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these line-ups? For me, it’s big time “power hitting.” So it may come as a surprise to learn that Colorado saw the Over/Under go 64-90 this year, while Arizona saw it go 73-80. Oddsmakers were wary when setting the total whenever these teams played, but regardless of all of that, I still think this number is just a little low in this one. Gray (10-4, 3.67 ERA) has a 4.06 ERA on the road, which likely doesn’t bode well for him at hitter friendly Chase Field in this pressure packed situation. Greinke (17-7, 3.20) was lights out at home with a 13-1, 2.87 ERA record. However, note that Arizona saw the total go over the number in eight of 13 home games this year when the total was either 8 or 8.5. Also note that Colorado has seen the total eclipse the posted number in two of its last three as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-04-17 | Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern +7 | Top | 43-25 | Loss | -108 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Georgia Southern (8:00 EST). Arkansas State is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, while Georgia Southern is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS. Note that Georgia Southern plays with revenge tonight after Arkansas State pulled off the 27-26 home win with nine seconds left in the game last year. Both teams looked shaky in non-conference action, admittedly Georgia Southern even more than Arkansas State to this point, as it fell 22-12 to FCS New Hampshire back on September 9th. The Red Wolves are led by QB Justice Hansen, who so far has 985 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s. In their 44-21 loss to SMU, Hansen was 16 of 26 for 234 yards and two TD’s. The defense looked horrible in allowing 580 yards, including 314 on the ground. The Eagles defense held the Hoosiers to just 11 of 22 passing for 185 yards on September 23rd, but stumbled against the run in allowing 283 yards on the ground to Indiana. Georgia Southern’s Triple Option offense was finally firing on all cylinders, producing 242 yards on the ground (five fumbles were the difference though.) QB Shai Wets so far has 230 yards and two TD’s passing, along with another 180 yards rushing. I’ll point out though that Georgia Southern is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive ATS losses, while Arkansas State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 44 points or more in its previous contest. I like Georgia Southern to benefit from the extra time off between games and to build off its latest decent effort. Good luck…Larry |
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10-03-17 | Twins +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Opening Night Play (GOW) is the Minnesota Twins on the run-line (8:05 EST). While I actually would not be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend laying the “pick-em” price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Ervin Santana (16-8, 3.28 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Tribe on Thursday, going five scoreless in the unfortunate no-decision. Santana has been solid across the board this season, but he’s been at his absolute best on the road this year by going 10-3 with a tiny 2.71 ERA. The home side counters with Luis Severino (14-6, 2.98) who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Rays on Wednesday. Like his counterpart today, Severino’s numbers have been red hot across the board, however it’s interesting to note that while he owns a 2.24 ERA on the road, he has just a 3.91 ERA at home. I think Santana can match Severino inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I feel the value swings to the dog. Play on the Twins on the run-line. Good luck…Larry |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 20-29 | Win | 101 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST). Washington is 2-1 SU/ATS, while Kansas City is 3-0 SU/ATS. I base my picks on many different things. For the most part with this selection, I simply feel it sets up great for Kansas City. The Redskins are coming off back-to-back wins, including a satisfying 27-10 victory over the Raiders at home last Sunday night. With its “bye” coming next week, it’s not too hard to imagine at all Washington getting caught “looking ahead” in some small way to its time off. Conversely the Chiefs are on the road again next week for a tough one against suddenly surging Houston, making tonight’s contest all that much more important. As I said, from an overall situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this. If we look at what each of these teams have done over the first three weeks, clearly they’re very evenly matched up and down the board and on both ends of the field. Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins and Chiefs’ pivot Alex Smith are a “wash.” The defenses have been probably even better than the offenses (and the offenses have been getting great production, both through the air on the ground.) Two even teams, but the overall “situation” greatly favors the home side. I’ll also point out that the Redskins are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after allowing ten points or more in their previous contest, while KC is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a win against a division rival. I expect KC to take advantage of the above listed factors and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 153 h 60 m | Show | |
My 8* NON-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:30 EST). Both teams enter at 1-2 SU, however the Seahawks are 0-3 ATS, while the Colts are 2-1 ATS. Many experts believed the Seahwawks would be in the Super Bowl this year, but clearly the team has issues in all three phases right now. The offense has been anemic, especially in the red zone. The defense has been decent, but has been susceptible to giving up the big play. However, the Andrew Luck-less Colts come to town contented after their first win of the season, holding off the Browns 31-28 at home last weekend. The Seahawks will now be looking to take advantage of this complacency and take out their frustrations after falling 33-27 on the road at Tennessee. Indy forced three turnovers last Sunday, but it’s still just ranked 20th in scoring offense with 17.7 PPG, The defense is the worst in the entire league though, conceding 31 PPG thus far. QB Jacoby Brissett is 39 of 64 for 526 yards, one TD and one INT, while RB Frank Gore leads the ground attack with 145 yards and two TD’s. Seattle averages just 16 PPG so far, but it’s ranked eighth overall in scoring defense in conceding 19.7 PPG. Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 729 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s, while adding another 100 yards rushing as well. Doug Baldwin is Wilson’s top target with 20 catches for 212 yards and a TD. I’ll point out that Indianapolis has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors for a while though, going just 1-7 ATS in its last eight after scoring more than 30 points in its last game, while also going 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory. Conversely, Seattle has excelled in this position by going 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against a club with a losing record. There’s no team in the league right now that’s under-performed more than the Seahawks to this point. Clearly they can’t be happy whatsoever. But here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The Colts picked up their backup QB just before the season began. Beating the Browns at home is one thing, but competing with this highly motivated Seahawks team which is playing with a chip on its shoulder in front of the home town crowd is quite another. I have a hard time seeing the Colts mustering much offense this week and I expect Wilson to finally have a break out signature performance. Lay the points with confidence, play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-17 | Giants +4 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 150 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 4:05 ET. It's Week 4 of the 2017 NFL season but Tampa Bay has played just two games (1-1), as its Week 1 contest against Miami was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. The Buccaneers welcome the win-less NY Giants (0-3) to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday for a game in which it's fair to say, both teams badly need to win. The Giants are looking to avoid an 0-4 start for the first time since 2013 and a loss here would all but 'bury' them in an NFC East division in which all three rivals sit 2-1 after three games. Expectations for the Bucs were high coming into 2017 but in the NFC South, the Falcons are already 3-0 and the Panthers 2-1, so a 1-2 start to a season in which the team will play the rest of the year without the benefit of bye, would likely not bode well. The Giants' offense finally got going in the fourth quarter last Sunday, as Eli threw three TD passes and New York rallied for 24 points. However, Philadelphia PK Jake Elliott's made a 61-yard FG on the game's final play, giving the Eagles the 27-24 win. The Giants hadn't scored 20 points in eight straight games before Manning led them to 21 points in a span of 5:21. He tossed TD passes of 10 yards and four yards to Odell Beckham Jr. to tie it at 14. Manning then connected over the middle to Shepard, who broke a couple tackles and sprinted all the way for a 21-14 lead. However, it was all for naught, as Elliott, who hadn't made a FG of more than 40 yards in an NFL game prior to Sunday, connected on the longest game-winner in NFL history for a rookie and a franchise record for Philly (it's tied for the third-longest game-winning kick in the final 10 seconds in NFL history!). The Giants own the NFL's worst rushing offense (48.7 YPG) and so far, its defense has not looked like the dominating unit from 2016. Tampa Bay also owns a poor running game, averaging just 71.5 YPG (26th). QB QB Jameis Winston has completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 532 yards with three TDs and three interceptions. However, as we saw against the Vikings last Sunday, he still has a tendency to force the ball into tight windows (Minny had three INTs!). The Tampa Bay defense has to be a worry, as last week it allowed a whopping 494 yards to a Minnesota team with Case Keenum at QB (entered the game 9-16 as an NFL starter). Keenum threw for 369 yards and three TDs (zero INTs), completing 25 of 33. Are you kidding me? The week before, the Bucs faced former QB Mike Glennon (was 5-14 as a NFL starter entering that contest), now with the Bears. Against those two "marginal" QBs (I'm being kind here), the Bucs have allowed 329.5 YPG passing after two games, ranking 31st of 32 teams. Also, the pass rush has produced just one sack. Eli's OL is a worry but the Bucs don't seem all that suited to pressure him. The Giants came excruciatingly close to their first victory last Sunday and the team will either bounce-back from that near-win, or let it derail its season with another losing effort. Considering that Tampa Bay is just 2-8 ATS it last 10 as a home favorite, my bet says the Giants rebound. Good luck...Larry |
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10-01-17 | Jaguars v. Jets +3.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 146 h 11 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST). Both teams come off victories. Jacksonville smashed Baltimore 44-7 in London last week. Now the Jags have to transition back to America for another road game and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable “letdown” in this spot. Conversely, New York is primed for another big effort here after knocking off the Dolphins 20-6 at home last Sunday. Jags’ QB Blake Bortles had 244 passing yards and four TD’s last weekend, while the Jacksonville defense held the Ravens scoreless until the final possession of the game. RB Leonard Fournette had 59 rushing yards and a TD as well. Jacksonville looked great in an opening week win over Houston as well, only to then lay an egg at home in Week 2 against the Titans. Consistency from week to week is still a problem in my opinion. The Jets held the Dolphins to just 225 total yards and I think the unit is going to have another big day against the road weary Jags’ offense. New York QB Josh McCown had 249 passing yards and a TD, while RB Bilal Powell added 37 rushing yards and a TD. The Jets would completely shut down the Dolphins run game, holding Jay Ajayi to 16 yards on 11 carries. I’ll point out as well that the Jags are in fact 0-2 ATS in their last two as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the same points range. Bortles had a big game last week, but I think he stumbles here against this vastly underrated Jets’ defensive unit. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-17 | Bengals v. Browns +3.5 | 31-7 | Loss | -125 | 146 h 11 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST). While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as I expect the home side to keep this one competitive from start to finish. The Bengals are getting too much respect in this position, considering their 0-3 in my opinion. QB Andy Dalton has been poor with 606 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. Browns’ rookie QB DeShone Kizer can empathize, he has 646 yards, three TD’s and seven INT’s. The Bengals fell 27-24 in OT in Green Bay on Sunday, blowing a late 21-7 lead. Dalton had 212 passing yards and two TD’s. WR AJ Green was a bright spot with 111 receiving yards and a TD. Cincinnati though lost the yardage battle 344-301. The Browns also come in off a nali-biting loss, falling 31-28 to the Colts in OT on Sunday. Expectations and pressure is a lot lower on Kizer and company than Dalton and his crew, so the setback is clealry a positive for this young Browns team. Kizer did finish with 242 passing yards and two TD’s (also three INT’s.) Duke Johnson Jr. had 81 yards on six catches for the Browns, while Kenny Britt had 54 yards and a TD. The Browns offense can put points on the board and the team is just as skilled as the Bengals are in all three phases. As mentioned off the top, with the way that Dalton is playing right now, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset in this one (but as also mentioned above, make sure to grab the points!) Good luck…Larry |
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10-01-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Ravens | Top | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 146 h 11 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST). I use many different techniques when handicapping throughout the season. Sometimes for me its all about the players on the field, but other times its about stats or situations. And that for the most part is the case here. The Ravens are coming off a humiliating 44-7 loss in England and while they looked great over their first two games, I think they’re set up for another letdown here after transitioning back State side. The Steelers are also coming off a loss, falling 23-17 in OT to lowly Chicago. QB Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 29 for 235 yards and a TD, while also adding a six-yard rush and losing a fumble. Roethlisberger has been decent, but not great to open the season. But with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and pass-catching RB Le’Veon Bell, I think it’s just a matter of time before “Big Ben” returns to form. After two decent outings, Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco was a disaster last weekend, completing eight passes for 28 yards and two INT’s. Flacco is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and it was finally exposed in this one as he was forced to continually settle for check downs. Note that the Ravens only scored on the final possession of the game, long after backup Ryan Mallett had taken over. The Steelers did play well defensively last week and I think that’s going to spell big trouble once again for Flacco and company this afternoon. Additionally I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is interestingly 5-3 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of October, while Baltimore is just 1-7 ATS in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-17 | Mariners v. Angels -119 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -119 | 2 h 37 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (9:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Moore (1-5, 5.34 ERA) who has given up six runs off 12 hits over his last 8.2 innings spanning two starts. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 5.93 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Ricky Nolasco (6-15, 5.02) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up four runs (just two earned though) while striking out four over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Monday. Nolasco has given up just six earned run over his last three starts and owns a pedestrian 4.15 ERA at home this year. I’ll point out though that Seattle has struggled in this spot for bettors all season, going just 9-18 (-5.2 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while conversely, LA has excelled in this spot by going 19-12 (+2.2 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. This line could easily be a lot larger, play on the Angels. UPDATE: Moore is out for Seattle, and Andrew Albers is in. This play is STILL valid. Albers (5-1, 3.19) was moved to the bullpen and has decent numbers. If he’s had one clear weakness though, it’s been his play on the road where he’s posted a rather pedestrian 4.50 ERA. The sky is the limit for the rookie, but this is a tough spot start. The value remains on the home side. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-17 | A's v. Rangers -135 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 16 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Gossett (4-10, 5.82 ERA) who was most recently rocked for seven runs off six hits and two walks in a loss to the Mariners on Monday. Gossett was lucky as it clearly could have been a lot worse with each of the hits he gave up being of the solo home run variety. It was the second straight outing in which he’s given up at least six runs (note that he’s 3-6 with a 5.68 ERA on the road and just 1-5 with a 5.63 ERA in all “night” contests.) The home side counters with Andrew Cashner (10-11, 3.42) who comes in off an outing to forget against the hard-hitting Astros on Monday, allowing eight runs (amazingly though, just one earned), off six hits with two strikeouts over 3.2 innings of work. Cashner has been far from perfect this year, but there’s no question whatsoever that he’s been much more consistent with his numbers across the board than his counterpart today. Also note that Cashner has consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd this season with a highly respectable 2.70 ERA. Additionally I’ll point out that the A’s are just 15-22 (-6.6 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Texas is 16-5 (+8.6 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This line could easily be a lot larger in my professional opinion. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-17 | Diamondbacks -115 v. Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 27 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:15 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Taijuan Walker (9-9, 3.54) who comes in off an outing to forget after getting shelled for seven runs (just three earned) off six hits and three walks while stirking out six over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Fish on Saturday. Previous to this dud though, Walker had allowed just four runs while stirking out 27 opponents through 28.2 frames spanning a five-game stretch. Walker has one last chance to get things dialed in before the playoffs and he takes his solid 3.54 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 into his final regular season outing (note that he’s been at his best on the road with a 6-5, 2.99 ERA record.) The home side counters with Jake Junis (8-3, 4.39) who was also crushed in his last outing, giving up six runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the Yanks on Monday. Five of his seven hits allowed went for extra bases, including two dingers. Granted starts like that have been few and far between for the rookie, but saying that, note that he still owns a pedestrian 4.15 ERA in all “night” games this year. Additionally I’ll point out that Arizona is 11-6 (+5.5 units) this season in all interleague games, while KC is just 7-10 (-2.4 units) in the same position. I like Walker to come in focused and I expect him to get the better of his younger inconsistent counterpart. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-17 | Troy +19.5 v. LSU | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 130 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Troy (7:00 EST). I feel this is a few too many points to be giving up here. Troy won its third straight with a 22-17 win at home over Akron, but so far the Trojans are 0-4 ATS. LSU comes in off a 35-26 home win over Syracuse last weekend. Troy came out and went 97 yards in nine plays to score the game winning TD in two minutes last weekend. So far Troy is ranked 97th in scoring offense with 24 PPG, while ranked 25th in scoring defense in coneding just 18 points per contest. QB Brandon Silvers has 1,084 passing yards, two TD’s and two picks. RB Jamarius Harris has 198 yards and three major scores. LSU led by 18 twice in the third quarter and had to hold on for dear life down the stretch last Saturday. So far the Tigers are ranked 78th in the nation in scoring with an average of 28.5 PPG, while ranked 27th in conceding 18.3 Tigers’ QB Danny Etling has 723 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s, while RB Darrel Williams has 251 yards and five TD’s thus far. I’ll point out though that Troy is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games against a team wih a winning home record, while LSU is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd. Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on they money line? I am not. I simply feel this is too many points to be giving up to this underrated Troy team. I like the Trojans’ stout defense to keep the visitors competitive in this one late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-17 | Florida State v. Wake Forest OVER 47 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Week 5 Goin' Over Total is on Fla St/Wake Forest Over at 3:30 ET. The FSU Seminoles will visit at BB&T Field in Winston-Salem on Saturday to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in ACC action. How strange is it that while Wake Forest is 4-0, FSU is still looking for its first win here on September 30? Of course, the Seminoles have played only two games so far, due to Hurricane Irma, canceling a Sep 9 home game with UL-Monroe and postponing the school's game with Miami-Fl from Sep 16 to next Saturday. Florida State has gone from the AP's 3rd-ranked team in the preseason poll (and a CFP contender) to an un-ranked team in a month, while playing only twice (more on that later). As all know, FSU just didn't lose its season-opener to Alabama in Atlanta back on Sep 2, it also lost prized starting QB Deondre Francois to a season-ending injury. That forced Jimbo Fisher to go with freshman James Blackmon under center. The true freshman should have had a 'warm-up' against ULM but that game was canceled and then the Miami game was postponed. His first game action came last Saturday against NC State and Fisher says he was encouraged by Blackmon's play. He was 23 of 38 for 278 yards with one TD and zero INTs in those 38 attempts (note: he did lose a fumble). "As far as the passing game, handling the blitz, making decisions where to go with the ball, (he) was really good in the game," Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher told reporters. "Going to the right guy for the right reasons in the right coverage." We’ve all only seen Florida State a couple of times this year, so it’s hard to get a sense of exactly what this team is or is not, capable of. Wake Forest went 3-9 in each of Dave Clawson's first two seasons but last year's team finished 7-6, after beating Temple 34-26 in the Military Bowl. The Demon Deacons dominated their first three opponents, including a 34-10 win at Boston College in the school's ACC opener back on Sep 9, but needed a lot of good fortune to earn a 20-19 victory at Appalachian State last week (missed FGs and other miscues by the Mountaineers). QB John Wolford is completing 60.2 percent for 676 yards with eight TDs and not a single interception in 83 attempts. He also leads the team with 269 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) and three scores. RB Byrd has added 233 yards (6.1 YPC) for a team averaging 216.2 YPG on the ground (35th). The defense checks in holding opponents to 11.5 PPG (9th) on 328.5 YPG (35th). Here's the rub. Would anyone have ever predicted that Wake would get to four wins before FSU posted even one? From an injury to QB Francois in the opener, to the fall-out from Hurricane Irma, September has been a nightmare for the 'Noles. FSU is 0-2 for the first time since 189 and fell out of the AP poll after last Saturday's loss to NC State, ending a streak of 105 consecutive weeks in the AP top-25. FSU opened as the 3rd-ranked team in the AP poll and becomes the first school since the 1984 Pittsburgh team (also opened No. 3) to begin a season in the top-3 and lose its first two games. That Pittsburgh team opened 0-4 and would finish 3-7-1 (remember Foge Fazio?). Will FSU follow a similar scenario? With Mia-Fl up next, FSU sure doesn't want to be 0-3 heading into that game. Wake Forest's senior QB John Wolford is a Jacksonville, Fla. native and will be looking for his first win over FSU. Wouldn't he love to get it? However, I expect to see FSU play VERY well in this one and to show the kind of production that has seen FSU average 30 points or more in every season since 2008 (averaged 23.3 PPG back in 2007). Wolford won't go down without a fight and this over/under number is very 'doable.' It's Goin' Over! Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-17 | Central Michigan v. Boston College -8 | 8-28 | Win | 100 | 125 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Boston College (1:00 EST). CMU is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while BC is 1-3 SU/ATS. The Chips won their first two games of the season, but have since lost two straight, combining for just 31 points in the setbacks. Last week Central Michigan fell 31-14 to Miami Ohio. QB Shan Morris had 195 yards passing with one TD and two INT’s. Jonathan Ward led the way with 56 rushing yards. Over the last two games Ward has averaged just 3.3 YPC. BC won its opener, but has since lost three straight. The Eagles average just 15 PPG thus far. The Eagles lost to No. 2 ranked Clemson 34-7 last weekend, but it’s worthy to note that they were tied at seven after the third quarter. BC forced two turnovers, while also committing two itself. QB Anthony Brown had 133 yards, one INT and no TD’s. RB AJ Dillon has 115 rushing yards over his last two games. I’ll point out though that CMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games and just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road, while BC is 7-2-1 ATS in its las ten against the MAC. The Eagles have played a much tougher schedule and I look for the ACC team to assert itself in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-30-17 | Rice v. Pittsburgh -20 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 124 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:00 EST). Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. The Panthers are going to be the more desperate team as they look to snap a three-game slide, with consecutive setbacks to Penn State, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech. The Owls can empathize, as they’ve lost two straight, most recently to Houston and Florida International. Rice QB Sam Glaesmann had an injury last weekend and his status for this one is up in the air as well. If he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100%. Jackson Tyner was 15 of 26 for 131 yards with no TD’s and one INT in the listless 13-7 loss to FIU. So far Rice ranks 118th in averaging just 292 YPG. Panthers’ QB Max Browne splite time with sophomore Ben DiNucci last weekend. Browne was 10 of 15 for 88 yards. Pittsburgh is a young team and the secondary is a weak point, but clearly the unit catches a break this week in facing the Owls anemic offense. The home field advantage factor can’t be overlooked here I don’t think. Neither can the fact that Rice is dealing with an injured starting QB and an offense which so far has done absoluely nothing. I like the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-17 | USC v. Washington State +4.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 122 h 57 m | Show | |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State (10:30 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. USC enters off a 30-20 road win over Cal, while Washington State knocked off Oregon State 52-23 at home. Trojans’ QB Sam Darnold has already thrown seven INT’s over his last four games. Darnold was 26 of 38 for 223 yards, two TD’s and a pick in last week’s win. USC though posted just 356 total yards, while allowing Cal to accumulate 416. USC averages 492 yards on offense and concedes 370.2 on defense. Last week Washington State jumped out to a big lead and then never looked back. QB Luke Falk was 36 of 47 for 478 yards and five TD’s with no picks. So far he has 14 TD’s to just one INT. The offense averages over 500 yards per game, while the defense has been fantastic as well, allowing just 263.2 YPG thus far. I’ll point out that USC is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road and just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while Washignton State is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 at home and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play on Washington State. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-17 | BYU -3 v. Utah State | 24-40 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 12 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on BYU (8:00 EST). Enough is enough as far as BYU is concerned, as it’ll be looking to get off the schneid and break a three-game losing streak. BYU most recently is coming off losses to LSU, Utah and Wisconsin. Utah State has alternated wins with losses, most recently crushing San Jose State 61-10 last weekend. BYU lost a bunch of playmakers on offense in the offseason, including QB Taysom Hill and RB Jamaal Williams, but the unit was expected to be better than what it’s shown so far. The Cougars have so far averaged just 9.8 PPG this year: “We have a long ways to go, but we have a lot of season left to play, so we will take advantage of the bye week and try to help ourselves get better so we can win games,” head coach Kalani Sitake assessed. “If we want to be as good as these great teams, we need to play them.” Utah State’s awesome defensive numbers are a bit skewed I think, considering the competition. Last week QB Kent Myers had 271 yards through the air, while the run game finished with 318. Despite that though I’ll point out that BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Mountain West and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previosu outing, while Utah State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference contests. I like the desperate Cougars to utilize their size at the line. After last week’s big win, I also believe the Aggies come in a bit content and flat-footed. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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