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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-22-18 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on the SA/Hou Under at 8:05 EST. The 18-15 Spurs are in Houston tonight to take on the 16-15 Rockets. The SA Spurs entered last night's home game with the T-wolves having won six of their last seven games without needing their front-line players late in those contests. San Antonio's last four wins had all been by 25 or more points. Make that SEVEN of eight wins, with FIVE in a row coming by 25 points or more, as San Antonio blasted Minnesota, 124-98! San Antonio coasted again on Friday, getting just 22 total points from top scorers DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, who entered with a combined average of 42.2 PPG. The Rockets last played on Thursday, when the team's five-game winning streak was snapped by the Heat, who won 101-99. More bad news came Houston's way as star PG Chris Paul strained his left hamstring in the loss at Miami. He is expected to miss at least two weeks. "It's definitely tough, because he's a big-time playmaker and ball handler for us," guard Eric Gordon told reporters. "In this offense you need all of the playmaking that you can have, and usually me, Chris, and James [Harden] have the ball in our hands trying to play-make for other people and provide good scoring." The Spurs are playing on back-to-back nights and have gone 0-5 in the last half of those recent back-to-backs. Also note that Houston is 0 -5 this season without Paul. This situation hardly seems to favor a high-scoring game. In fact, Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in 10 of its last 14 after playing a road game. Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy +2 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Game of the Week is on Troy at 7:00 ET. 10-3 Buffalo and 9-3 Troy each went 7-1 during their respective conference regular seasons. However, only Buffalo (MAC) played in a conference title game, as Troy lost a tie-breaker with Appalachian St in the Sun Belt East. In retrospect, Buffalo would have preferred to "stay home," as the Bulls led NIU 29-10 in the final minute of the third quarter, only to go on to lose, 30-29. The teams meet in this year's Dollar General Bowl, for the first time-ever. There is no doubt that Buffalo has skill players on the offensive side of the ball (34.8 PPG ranks 26th in the nation). QB Tyree Jackson has thrown for 2,857 yards with 27 TDs and just INTs. His two favorite targets are Anthony Johnson(52 catches / 11 TDs) and K.J. Osborn (49 / 6 TDs). Last year’s leading rusher, Emmanuel Reed, was pushed aside this season by a pair of freshmen, Kevin Marks and Jaret Patterson, who combined for 1,751 rushing yards and 25 rush TDs this season. Buffalo’s offensive line, which was allowed just 12 sacks in 13 game. The "D" was good enough, allowing 24.7 PPG (49th) on 349.4 YPG (31st). Troy averages a more modest 29.8 PPG but it concedes just 21.2 (23rd) on 345.6 YPG (28th). BJ Smith had 100 rushing yards in five out of his last eight games (set a school record with five consecutive 100-yard rushing games), finishing with 1,093 yards and 12 TDs. QB Sawyer Smith has been up and down since taking over for injured starter Kaleb Barker at mid-season. However, the Trojans have a stable of talented receivers that allowed both Barker and Smith to throw for over 1,000 yards, just the second time that has happened in school history. Can anyone really trust Buffalo QB Jackson? The month of November was not kind tothe junior, as he broke the 200-yard barrier just once while the Bulls posted a 2-2 record. In comparison, over the first nine games, the MAC Offensive Player of the Year averaged 247 yards while throwing 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Those numbers dropped to 158 yards per game with four touchdowns and three interceptions in four games in November, which culminated with the Bulls allowing a 29-10 lead to slip away in the MAC championship game defeat. Buffalo is playing in just its third bowl game, having lost 49-24 to SD State in 2013 and 38-20 to UConn in 2009. You really want to trust a team from the MAC? MAC schools are just 2-15 in bowls since Christmas Day 2015! This game is being played in Mobile, roughly three hours from the Troy campus. The Trojans have won bowls the last two years and will take an overall 30-8 record the last three season into this contest. Note that Troy will also take a three-game bowl winning streak into this game, while averaging 42.0 PPG. Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-18 | UNLV v. Hawaii +1 | Top | 73-59 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Hawaii at 5:00 ET. The first round of the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu opens Saturday with four games. It's a modest field and with Hawaii being the host team (all games will be played on its homecourt, the Stan Sheriff Center), the Rainbow Warriors have (and should have), high expectations. Hawaii is a modest 6-4 and draws 5-4 UNLV in the first round. UNLV arrives off a dramatic 92-90 overtime upset of BYU in the Neon Hoops Showcase Tourney in Las Vegas (T-Mobile Arena, not the home Thomas & Mack Center). The Rebels led 47-30 at the half but BYU battled back in the second half to send it into OT. However, UNLV's Amauri Hardy (11.6 PPG) drained the three-pointer as time expired for the win. UNLV has just three double-digit scorers but the team's best isnide player, the 6-7 Shakur Juiston (10.8 PPG and a team-leading 8.8 RPG) is sidelined indefinitely with a knee injury. The Rainbow Warriors own a nice starting-five, beginning with guards Stansberry (11.8), Stepteau (11.1) and PG Buggs (8.7 & 5.4 APG). The 6-9 Purchase (11.4 & 6.4) and the 6-8 Raimo (10.1 & 6.20 start up front. Hawaii is a disciplined team, averaging only 12 turnovers per game (in comparison, UNLV ranks 332nd in TOs per game). The team also defends the three-point line well (opponents are shooting 30.2%, ranking 54th in the nation). This will be just UNLV's second true road game, having lost previously 77-74 at Illinois, which is just 4-7. Not sure why Hawaii is NOT laying a few buckets here but I won't argue with the line. Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-18 | North Carolina -2 v. Kentucky | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on UNC 10* (5:15 EST). Chicago's United Center is the site of the CBS Sports Classic. The second game features a "Battle of the Blue-Bloods,” No. 19 Kentucky up against No. 9 North Carolina. The schools are two of college basketball's most prestigious programs, with the two combining to play in five national championship games over the last 10 seasons, with the Tar Heels winning two titles and the Wildcats claiming one during that span. They represent two of the top three winningest men's basketball programs all-time, with Kentucky topping the list with 2,271 victories. Kentucky opened the season on a big stage, getting routed 118-84 by Duke in the Champions Classic at Indianapolis back on Nov 6. Kentucky also lost Dec 8 in MSG, 84-83 to Seton Hall. Freshman guard Keldon Johnson is averaging a team-best 16.1 points and Tyler Herro, another highly regarded freshman guard, is averaging 12.1 points. Stanford graduate transfer, the 6-8 Reid Travis 14.6 & 6.4,) has been trying to instill some needed toughness at both ends of the court. Kentucky checks in averaging 84.6 PPG (22nd in the nation). North Carolina's senior power forward Luke Maye is averaging 14.3 points and 10.1 rebounds. Senior guard Cameron Johnson is averaging a team-leading 16.6 PPG while freshman guard Coby White is contributing 15.2 per game, while PG Williams averaged 7.7 & 4.8 APG. North Carolina averages 94.3 PPG, which ranks third in the nation. Hard NOT see this as a high-scoring game and the Tar Heels know about those kind of contests, having recently knocked off Gonzaga, 103-90.Meanwhile, Kentucky has failed its two toughest test away from Rupp, in neutral-site games against Duke and Seton Hall (see above). North Carolina leads the all-time series by 24-15 but Kentucky has won five of eight meetings since Calipari became coach.That said, Coach Cal does NOT have the better team here. Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. St. Joe's -3 | 42-45 | Push | 0 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on St. Joes 9* (5:00 EST). It's an all-Jesuit battle on Saturday in Philadelphia's Palestra, as 7-5 Loyola-Chicago takes on 5-5 St Joe's. It goes without saying that this is not the same Ramblers' team which made an improbable run to last year's Final 4, as Loyola, which finished last season 32-6, already owns five losses. As for St Joe's, the school is off back-to-back poor seasons (won 16 games last year and just 11, the year before) but head coach Phil Martelli (in his 24th year at the school), is optimistic about this year's group. Loyola is missing two key cogs from last year's team, swingman Donte Ingram (11.0 & 6.4) & PF Aundre Jackson (11.0 & 3.2). Hence, the FIVE losses after just 12 games. Guards Custer (13.9) and Townes (13.1 & 5.5) are back, plus so is the 6-9 Krutwig (13.8 & 7.1). They lead the way but Loyola's most impressive win this year is probably against UIC (not saying much). St Joe's features two high-quality players, the 6-7 Brown (22.0 & 4.6) and guard Kimble (18.4 & 3.6). Brown has been nursing a sore ankle but he's listed as probable. Let me add that PG Bynum (13.4-3.6-3.9) and the 6-9 Funk (11.5 &6.0) are solid contributors. Loyola has had a 'target on its back' all season and expect St Joe's to earn a fairly easy win in the "friendly confines' of The Palestra. Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-18 | Boston College v. DePaul -4 | 65-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on DePaul 9* (3:30 EST). A pair of 8-2 teams will square off Saturday afternoon at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, when the Boston College Eagles visit the DePaul Blue Demons. The two schools have not met since Boston College knocked off No. 1 seed DePaul 82-75 en route to an Elite Eight appearance in the 1982 NCAA Tournament. BC is led by the high-scoring backcourt of Ky Bowman (19.6 & 7.6) and ACC Rookie of the Week Wynston Tabbs (15.8 & 4.6). Guard Chatman (13.9) and teh 6-11 Popovic (13.1 & 7.8) are also quality contributors.Bowman's already a star but in speaking about Tabbs, Boston College's fifth-year coach Jim Christian told the media. "The game is so different and moves so fast, most freshmen don't figure it out until January or so, but Wynston has figured it out quicker than most. He's picked up some of the nuances." The Blue Demons counter BC's backcourt with a pair of senior guards, Max Strus and Eli Cain. The 6-6 Strus averages 20.1 & 8.0, while Cain is enjoying his finest season, averaging 14.2 points and 4.9 assists. Junior guard Jalen Coleman-Lands (9.6) missed the first of what is expected to be several games after he injured his left hand in a win Dec. 14 against Illinois-Chicago but the Blue Demons got by without the Illinois transfer against Incarnate Word. That said, his absence could make things tougher against the Eagles. "However, DePaul owns a trio of 6-9 players who are all solid complements to the team's dynamic backcourt. Olujobi (10.9 & 4.9), Reed (8.1 & 6.6) and Butz (7.5 & 5.6) can all play! This will clearly be DePaul's biggest test of the season but the Blue Demons are 8-0 at home so far, averaging 83.2 PPG. Meanwhile, this marks BC's FIRST true road game. Home cookin' works. Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-18 | Connecticut v. Villanova -6 | 58-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Villanova at 12:30 ET. Villanova won 13 of its final 14 games last season, on it's way to a second national title in three years (won six straight in the "Big Dance," with its average margin of victory coming by 17.7 PPG!). Not sure at all that the Wildcats will storm through the Big East like last year when the calendar turns to 2019, as the Wildcats need to defeat UConn at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, just to avoid ending the year on a three-game losing streak. UConn comes into this game 9-3, quite an improvement from the last two season, when the Huskies finished 14-18 and 16-17. Let's give kudos to new head coach Danny Hurley but we shouldn't be surprised. After all, Hurley turned around programs first at Wagner and then, Rhode Island. UConn is coming off a season-high 32-point win over Drexel. Leading scorer Jalen Adams (17.6) is scoring slightly less than a season ago (18.1) but his efficiency is way up this year. Adams is shooting 54.6 percent overall after shooting around 43 percent in each of his first three seasons. UConn is a guard-oriented team, with Adams joined by a trio of perimeter players in Gilbert (12.1 & 4.2 APG), Vital (11.9 & 5.3) and Smith (10.8). Guard Phil Booth (16.9) leads three double-digit scorers on the season for 'Nova. He's joined by the 6-8 Paschall (14.8 & 5.6) and fellow guard Gillespie (11.9). The 6-9 Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree adds 6.3 & 7.8. Booth scored a career-high 29 points against Kansas but thee Wildcats missed 20 of their 28 three-pointers and barely cracked 40 percent shooting overall vs the Jayhawks.Note that Gillespie has scored 36 points in the last two games and has only had two games all season in which he has committed more than two turnovers. Villanova has fallen to local rival Pennsylvania (ending a 25-game winning streak vs Big-Five rivals) and at top-ranked Kansas in a pair of three-point decisions the last two times out. A meeting with former Big East rival UConn should be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Wildcats to get a win. Why not? Villanova is 16-1 in its last 17 games at Madison Square Garden. Lay it! Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-18 | Jazz v. Blazers -2 | 120-90 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. Portland is now trending in the right direction. The Blazers went just 5-10 SU from Nov 14 thru Dec 12, including a pointspread drought of 3-12! However, the Blazers enter having won three in a row, over Toronto (NBA's best record) plus Western Conference playoff-bound teams like the Clippers and Grizzlies. 18-13 Portland welcomes 15-17 Utah to Moda Center tonight, with the Jazz coming off a confidence-building Wednesday win over the Golden St Warriors (108-103). Utah's impressive win is worthy of note, as guards Donovan Mitchell (20.9) and Ricky Rubio (12.5-3.6-6.1) combined to make just 5 of 34 shots from the floor. The Jazz need to avoid a letdown here but note that the team had lost four of its previous five outings prior to the win over the Warriors. In Portland's 99-92 home over Memphis Wednesday night, Lillard (27.2-5.0-6.0) exploded for 15 of his game-high 24 points in the third quarter, hitting 5 of 8 shots from the floor, including 4 of 5 from beyond the three-point line. That's been Lillard's mode of operation often through this season. He leads the NBA in second-half scoring (15.6 points) and has made 46 of 96 three-point shots (47.9 percent) in the third quarter, with the 46 makes being the most in the league. Portland’s bench also came alive, outscoring the Memphis reserves 44-14, two games after having a 58-26 edge in bench points against the Toronto Raptors. The Blazers come in 4-0 SU & ATS in their last four home games, giving them a home mark this season of 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS. Also note that Portland is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home games against teams with losing road records. Utah is only 2-8 SU at Moda Center the last five years and are just 1-5 ATS in its last six visits. Blowout Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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12-21-18 | Wolves v. Spurs -4 | Top | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The 14-17 Minnesota Timberwolves visit at the AT&T Center in San Antonio on Friday to take on the 17-15 Spurs. Minnesota heads to the Alamo City after a 129-123 home OT loss to Detroit on Wednesday, one in which the Timberwolves led by 14 points heading to the fourth quarter (I remember it well, losing on the T-wolves!). Meanwhile, the Spurs return home after a 129-90 win over Orlando. The victory was the Spurs' first win away from San Antonio since Nov 26 at Chicago (Spurs are just 5-10 on the road). Minnesota 'limps' in' having lost five of its last six games and six of its last nine. Minnesota is beginning a three-game road stretch on the heels of that devastating overtime loss to the visiting Pistons on Wednesday (Andre Drummond tapped in a putback with 0.6 seconds left to send the game into OT. "The fourth quarter is different and you have to react to what's going on, so that is disappointing," Minnesota coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters after Wednesday's game. "I think they had 78 (points) after three, and then a 40-point fourth quarter. And then all we had to do was get a stop, and we give up a second shot. That can't happen." San Antonio will be carrying a little swagger into this game plus benefit from a mostly rested lineup after winning six of their past seven games without needing their front-line players late in those contests. San Antonio's last four wins have all been by 25 or more points, making them the fourth team all-time to attain that mark, joining the 1971-72 Bucks (five straight), the 1974-75 Warriors and 1992-93 Rockets. Don't look now but Pop has his team looking as good as any team in the West. San Antonio is 7-3 SU in December (7-2-1 ATS), outscoring opponents by 12 PPG and shooting 53% as a team. Need More? How about this? San Antonio will certainly have some revenge motivation, after being blown out by 39 points at Minneapolis in late November, losing 128-89. It represents one of the Spurs' worst losses of the Popovich era. I'm NOT done. San Antonio improved to 50-9 all-time at home against Minnesota with a 112-108 win on Oct. 17 and the Timberwolves haven't won in San Antonio since posting a 108-95 victory back on April 17, 2013 in the regular-season finale when Rick Adelman was coach! I’m laying the 'cheap number' and expecting a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-18 | Buffalo v. Marquette -2.5 | Top | 85-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* CBB Game of the Month is on Marquette at 8:30 ET. Buffalo was one of the 'belles' of LY's NCAA Tourney, as the 13th-seeded Bulls upset 4th-seeded Arizona by 21 points in the first round. The team's 27 wins set a single-season record. Buffalo stayed unbeaten on Tuesday, winning at Syracuse, 71-59 (note: It was the Bulls' first win over the Orange since the 1962-63 season! Buffalo (11-0 SU and 7-2-1 ATS) is one of just NINE Division 1 schools still undefeated, as the Bulls travel to Milwaukee Friday night to take on the 9-2 Marquette Golden Eagles. Marquette is as hot as any team in the country over the last month, reeling of six consecutive victories since a 77-68 loss Nov 21 against now-No.1 Kansas at Barclays Center (NIT Season Tip-Off). Buffalo is led by guard Massinburg (17.1 & 7.1), 6-8 forward Perkins (13.1 & 8.2) and swingman Harris (12.6 & 4.9). Massinburg came up big against Syracuse as the Bulls earned their first win over the Orange since 1963. He had 25 points, eight rebounds and five assists, including 12 points as the Bulls turned a 45-40 deficit into a 67-57 lead in the second half. It reminded some of what Massinburg did against a then-No. 13 West Virginia squad Nov 19, when he had 43 points and 14 rebounds in a 99-94 overtime victory, Massinburg just could be the best player in the MAC. Speaking of Mid-American Conference, Buffalo is the first MAC team to begin 11-0 since Toledo started 12-0 in 2013-14. Guard Markus Howard (23,2-4.2-4.5) is Marquette's best player. supported by brothers Sam and Joet Hauser. The 6-8 Sam is a junior averages 14.7 & 6.8, while his younger brother Joey (a 6-9 freshman), averages 10.2 & 5.7. Howard has averaged 26.2 points during the school's win streak, which began following that loss to Kansas. The Golden Eagles have taken down then-No. 12 Kansas St (Dec 1) and then-No.12 Wisconsin (Dec 8) in their six-game streak. Some have 'wondered aloud' whether this contest may just be the best chance for Buffalo to suffer a loss until it reaches the Big Dance in March. However, I say that question is moot. Marquette tops in the Big East in FG defense (39.5 percent) and has held eight visitors to Fiserv Forum to 36 percent shooting from the floor, including just 26.3 percent from three-point range. Marquette rules. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-18 | Florida International +6 v. Toledo | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 78 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* Bahamas Bowl play is on FIU at 12:30 ET. This is the Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl at Thomas Robinson Stadium, featuring 8-4 Florida International up against 7-5 Toledo. FIU's regular season ended on a disappointing note, as its 28-25 loss to Marshall prevented the school from earning a spot in the C-USA title game but the Panthers still garnered a trip out of the country to face Toledo in this contest. It's FIU's second straight bowl berth under coach Butch Davis, who took over a program that last went to a bowl back in 2011 and had gone 17-43 (.283) in the five years prior to Davis' arrival. it marks just the fourth bowl appearance in the program's history. In contrast, Toledo has a much richer postseason tradition with eight bowl appearances in the last nine years and 18 overall. Friday's game marks the schools' second bowl meeting, with the Golden Panthers stunning the Rockets 34-32 on a last-second field goal in the 2010 Little Caesar's Bowl. FIU quarterback James Morgan is a graduate transfer from Bowling Green and was named C-USA Newcomer of the Year, after setting a school single-season record with 26 TD passes (just seven INTs). He completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 2,727 yards.Toledo's QB situation is also noteworthy. A shoulder injury knocked QB Mitchell Guadagni out of action in late October, giving the job to backup and former Illinois soph QB Eli Peters. Peters’ passing numbers were decent-to-good, as he completed 55% for 1,573 yards with 15 TDs and 7 INTs but the problem is that Guadagni was better (58%, 13-3 TD/INT ratio.) and he was also the team’s leading rusher at the time of his initial injury. FIU stumbled a bit at the finish with two losses in its last four games to fall into a second-place tie in the East Division of C-USA but the team's eight wins still equaled the school record for victories in a season. As for Toledo, the Rockets soared down the stretch to keep alive their bowl hopes, winning four of their last five contests (averaged 50.8 PPG in the wins) to extend their streak of winning seasons to nine. Now here's the rub. The Rockets haven't won in the postseason since defeating Temple 32-17 in the 2015 Boca Raton Bowl plus despite Ohio U's 27-0 win over SD State on Wednesday, MAC schools are a mind-numbing 2-13 SU in bowl games since Christmas Day 2015. FIU is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 and 9-4 as an underdog since last season under Davis. The Golden Panthers are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss. I still don't trust MAC schools in bowls (how could anyone?) and I believe the FIU defense is under-rated (24.7 PPG allowed ranks 47th and 386.7 YPG ranks 58th), giving them a legitimate shot at taking this one outright (a win sets a new single-season school record!). Take the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-20-18 | Mavs v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 121-125 | Win | 103 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* TNT Knockout is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. The 15-14 Dallas Mavericks enter off a 126-118 road loss in Denver on Tuesday, the team's THIRD straight defeat. The skid comes on the heels of Dallas exceeding expectations by winning 12 of its previous 15 games(note: The Mavs won just 24 games last season!). Meanwhile, the Clippers were one of the league's biggest surprises while jumping off to a 15-6 start, but after a 131-127 home loss to Portland on Monday, they have dropped seven of nine games (including a season-worst four straight losses!). The play of rookie Luka Doncic (18.4-6.7-4.9) has been "the talk of the town" in Dallas but after an excellent stretch (see above), the Mavericks are starting to come undone. The Mavs enter this contest on a four-game ATS slide and note that they are just 1-4 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in back-to-back games. The Clippers allowed a season worst for points in Monday's 131-127 home setback against the Portland but I fully expect them to be fully motivated for this one. Center DeAndre Jordan returns to Staples Center as a visiting player for the first time against the Clippers, of whom he spent his first 10 NBA seasons. What's more, the Clippers lost not long ago in Dallas (Dec 2 to be exact) by the score of 114-110, as Jordan scored 16 points and added 23 rebounds (a season high he has since matched). The Clippers are 9-4 SU at home (6-3 as a home favorite), where they average 114.8 PPG. In contrast, the Mavs are just 2-11 SU on the road and this pointspread won't leave them much of a "margin of error" to cover without winning SU. Revenge works here, so for all the reasons listed above, play on the Clippers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-20-18 | Marshall v. South Florida +3 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -115 | 86 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* play is on USF at 8:00 ET. Marshall and USF meet for the first time in Thursday's Gaspariila Bowl. 8-4 Marshall is a dominating 11-2 all-time in bowl games and enters having won its last six (HC Holliday is 5-0 SU & ATS). Meanwhile, USF's 7-5 record includes them opening the 2018 season 7-0 (garnering a ranking of 21 in the AP poll), then losing its last five regular season games. The Herd may have won six straight bowls, but I think they’ll have their hands full with this hungry USF side.The Herd will have Tyler King and Brenden Knox in the backfield and they will present a formidable challenge for a Bulls' defense that allowed 39.6 PPG during its five-game slide. The Bulls rely on RB’s Jordan Cronkrite and Jonny Ford, who had nearly 1,800 combined yards rushing and 17 TDs between them. USF did not have No. 1 QB Blake Barnett in two of its last three games because of a shoulder injury and he may return. Chris Oladokun or Brett Kean would step in if Barnett can’t go. Head coaches Doc Holliday (Marshall) and Charlie Strong (USF) coached alongside each other as Florida assistants and I believe Strong could REALLY use a win. Why can't he get that win, as he's playing at home. The Bulls are 21-6 SU at home the last four seasons.USF has a chance to erase its poor finish with a third straight bowl win and the school's SIXTH win in its last seven bowl appearances. Good luck...Larry |
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12-20-18 | James Madison v. Fordham -3.5 | Top | 48-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Fordham at 7:00 ET. The 7-5 James Madison Dukes will be looking for their eighth win of the season when they travel to Rose Hill Gymnasium to take on the Fordham Rams. James Madison comes in off a listless 66-53 loss at George Mason, the school's third straight road defeat. Fordham is 8-3 after just 11 games, quite a turnaround from last year, when the Rams finished 9-22! The Dukes' inconsistencies continue to haunt them. They are 3-3 in their last six games, averaging 77.3 points in their last three wins but putting up only 54.7 PPG in their three losses. Stucky Mosley (17.1 PPG) lead the way for three double-digit scorers. The Rams are led by a pair of freshman guards, Nick Honor (top scorer at 17.6 PPG) and Jalen Cobb (11.1 PPG), who have joined FIVE returning starters. Fordham has taken advantage of a 'soft' early season schedule and has played EIGHT of its first 11 games at home. The Rams are 7-1 SU in those contests, holding opponents to just 63.3 PPG. As noted above, JMU has been wildly inconsistent but the Dukes have been sadly consistent in losing their last three road game, while averaging only 54.7 PPG. Lay the points with the revved-up Rams! Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-18 | Boise State v. Loyola Marymount -4.5 | Top | 69-70 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* CBB Game of the Week in on Loyola Marymount 10:00 ET. The 4-6 Boise State Broncos will visit the Albert Gersten Pavilion Wednesday night to take on the 10-1 Loyola Marymount Lions. Boise head coach Leon Rice has led the Broncos to 21 wins or more is SIX of his seven seasons but getting to 21 wins seems like a huge stretch this season. He lost three productive seniors from last year, including the 6-7 Chandler Hutchison ((20.0 & 7.7), who was the 22nd pick in last year's NBA draft by the Chicago Bulls. This year's team has balance (seven players average between 6.7 and 14.3 PPG) but I'm not sure that's good enough. Loyola-Marymount's Mike Dunlap entered his fifth year at the school this season with a 48-75 (.390) record but he was optimistic about the year, after his team played an exhibition schedule this summer in Australia. All five starters are back and this year's team is led by senior guard James Batemon (19.5) and 7-3 junior center Mattias Markusson (10.7 & 8.7). Most notably, the team's defense has been outstanding, allowing a modest 58.3 PPG (9th). Opponents have shot just 38.5% overall (31st), including only 24.7% on threes (3rd0. Boise is 0-3 in true road games this season although the Broncos did win one of three neutral-site games in the Cayman Islands Classic from Nov 19-21. Pretty sure that doesn't bode well against the Lions, whose only loss this season came at UCLA. The Lions have won at UNLV and beat Georgetown in the Jamaica Classic back on Nov 16. The Lions are 5-0 at home and this will be the team's first home game in almost a month (last played at home on Nov 29). Lay the modest points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-18 | Pistons v. Wolves -5 | 129-123 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement. These teams don’t see each other very often, but Detroit has won six straight in the series, including taking both meetings last year. Both teams come into this one struggling, meaning that home court advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup in my opinion. Detroit enters off a 107-104 home loss to the Bucks on Monday and it’s now lost seven of eight. Blake Griffin was once again a bright spot in the setback with 19 points, 11 assists and ten boards. Overall the Pistons average 109 PPG and concede 109.9. The Wolves average 111.6 PPG and they concede 110.6. Minnesota went 0-4 on a recent road trip, but a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered to get things turned around, as they’d go on to destroy the Kings 132-105 in their most recent action on Monday. And there’s no reason not to think that they won’t carry that momentum over here now as well. Note as well that Detroit is just 3-5 ATS already this year after playing three consecutive home games, while Minnesota is already 7-3 ATS as a home favorite this season. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-18 | Ohio v. San Diego State +3 | 27-0 | Loss | -116 | 101 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Frisco Bowl Situational Stunner is on SD State at 8:00 ET. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. SDSU backed its way into the bowl season with three straight losses to UNLV, Fresno State and Hawaii, but the MWC school is still loaded with talent. Ohio comes in off back-to-back wins over Buffalo and Akron. The Bobcats rank eighth in the country in rushing offense with an average of over 262 yards per game. But SDSU ranks fourth nationally in rush defense, allowing just 94.5 YPG, or 2.75 YPC. The Aztecs will have their hands full with the Bobcats’ AJ Ouellette, who had 1,142 rushing yards and 12 TDs this year. The Aztecs got hit by the injury bug early, with QB Christian Chapman missing six games and RB Juwan Washington missing four. Both however are playing today and each has something to prove after a somewhat wasted campaign. I think Ohio will be neutralized here though against SDSU’s strong run defense. I’ll point out as well that SDSU has been money in the bank for bettors in this spot, going 7-1 ATS in its last eight as an underdog (including 3-1 ATS this season), while Ohio is a poor 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 42 points or more in its last game. In conclusion: Frank Solich has been a 'savior' for Ohio U (10th bowl in 14 seasons) but he is just 3-6 in bowl games with the Bobcats. Maybe more importantly, we've already seen two MAC schools lose this bowl season, Eastern Mich (Sat) and NIU (last night), as MAC schools are now 1-13 SU in bowl games since Christmas Day of 2015. Getting back to SDSU, the Aztecs (+14) lost 31-10 at Stanford back on Aug 30 (1st game of the season), as the favorite "got the cash." However, the underdog went a PERFECT 11-0 ATS over the Aztecs' next 11 games! So let's get this straight. MAC schools are now 1-13 SU in bowl games since Christmas Day of 2015 and I can add that SDSU is 13-0-1 SU all-time vs MAC schools. Then we have the fact that the underdog is a PERFECT 11-0 ATS over the Aztecs' last 11 games! I'm NOT 'stepping in front of that train!' Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-18 | Buffalo v. Syracuse -3.5 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Syracuse at 8:00 ET. The Buffalo/Syracuse rivalry (schools are separated by a 152-mile drive across I-90) began way back to the 1917-18 season. Buffalo scored its first win over Syracuse in the final game of the 1918-19 season but Syracuse leads 27-5 all-time in a series. Syracuse and Buffalo played every year from 1965-66 until 1977-78 but the two schools have played just twice since then, on Dec. 18, 1997 and again on Dec. 30, 2001. Buffalo's last win over Syracuse came in overtime, way back during the 1962-63 season! However, as the teams get set to meet tonight at the Carrier Dome, 10-0 Buffalo, not 7-3 Syracuse, comes in ranked. No. 14 Buffalo remained one of NINE undefeated Division I teams with a 73-65 victory over Southern Illinois on Saturday. Meanwhile, then-No. 25 Syracuse fell out of the AP top-25 after a 68-62 home loss to Old Dominion, when the Orange lost a 13-point lead and were outscored by 16 in the second half. The Bulls have defeated then-No. 13 West Virginia as part of their undefeated start (last won 10 straight back in 1964-65), but the team will be tested with this game at Syracuse and Friday's game at current No. 20 Marquette. Buffalo is led by guard Massinburg (17.1 & 7.1), 6-8 forward Perkins (13.1 & 8.2) and swingman Harris (12.6 & 4.9). The famous Jim Boeheim zone is again doing its job, holding opponents to 62.8 PPG (29th). IGuard Battle (18.5), along with forwards Brissett (14.9 & 8.2) and Hughes (14.3 & 4.4), give Syracuse enough 'punch' to get the job done against Buffalo.. Buffalo was one of the 'belles' of LY's NCAA Tourney, as the 13th-seeded Bulls upset 4th-seeded Arizona by 21 points in the first round. The team's 27 wins set a single-season record. As noted Buffalo is unbeaten (10- 0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS) but is coming off its second-lowest scoring output of the season, as the Bulls scored 73 in Saturday's non-covering win over Southern Illinois. So just which team is David and which Goliath in this matchup? The Bulls have lost the last 18 games in the series, including an 81-74 defeat last season in which Syracuse closed on a 14-6 run. The Bulls have not beaten the Orange since 1963. Syracuse was 17-4 SU at home last year and is 6-1 SU at home, this year. With this modest impost, LAY IT! Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-18 | Lakers -2 v. Nets | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 7:35 ET. The 18-12 LA Lakers are coming off a 128-110 thumping on Sunday in Washington (trailed by as many as 27 points) but let's not ignore that LA is 16-7 over the team's last 23 games. Meanwhile, the 13-18 Brooklyn Nets are on a five-game winning streak, their longest since March 25-April 3, 2015. The current run follows a frustrating eight-game losing skid that saw them struggle to close out games. LBJ was held to a season-low 13 points on 5 of 16 shooting on Sunday and said, "We have to get some rest." James was held under 20 points for just the fourth time this season and added, "We have two days so no excuses obviously with the game being on Tuesday. I watched the game before we played. They put up 140 something points, so we have to be ready to defend for 48 minutes." Sunday's loss followed a 28-point win in Charlotte on Saturday night when James and Lonzo Ball both recorded triple-doubles but the Lakers could not produce an effective follow-up performance as they committed 22 turnovers. Brooklyn's five game winning run began with an overtime home win against the Toronto Raptors on Dec 7, then continued with road wins over the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers before the Nets returned home to beat the Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks. During the streak, the Nets are averaging 122.8 points, while shooting 50.2 percent from the floor (including 40.4 percent from three-point range). The Nets are also averaging 27.4 assists and assisting on 63.1 percent of their baskets. Bottom line is this. Do the above just-noted numbers sound ANYTHING like the Brooklyn team we've come to know and love? Yes, the Nets have scored at least 120 points in three straight games (all wins) but that's despite allowing at least 54 percent shooting. FYI...They are the first team to do so since the Houston Rockets in 1987-88. Off an embarrassing Sunday loss at Washington, LBJ carries the Lakers to a comfortable win, here. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-18 | 76ers v. Spurs +1 | 96-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. No need to really over think this one. The 76ers come in off a big 128-105 win at Cleveland last night and I think they’ll struggle to find energy in the second game of the back to back in this non-conference west coast contest. San Antonio won’t be lacking any motivation today either, because it had its four-game win streak snapped in a humbling home loss to the lowly Bulls on Saturday: “That’s a tough loss,” Spurs’ head coach Greg Popovich lamented afterwards. “I give Chicago a lot of credit. (Interim) coach (Jim) Boylen had them ready, and the character and fortitude they showed being down at the half by 19 is a real tribute to what they are trying to establish in Chicago. Their defense took us out of things. We turned it over because of their pressure. The ball stopped moving, and at the right time, they started making some shots down the stretch. They deserve a lot of credit, and that’s a real tough loss for us.” I think describing the setback as “tough” is being gentle. San Antonio can’t be happy whatsoever and I think it bounces back with a vintage performance here in this favorable situation. Note that San Antonio had not just won four in a row before lowly-Chicago came back from by 21 points down in the third quarter to win 98-93, but the Spurs had won those four games by an average of 22.3 points! Yes, Philly won both meetings last year with the Spurs but I sure HAVE to believe that Pop will remind his club that Philly held the Spurs to a season-low 78 points in the second encounter at San Antonio on Jan 26, 2018. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Spurs. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-18 | Saints -6 v. Panthers | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* MNF GAME OF YEAR is on the New Orleans Saints (8:15 EST). Carolina started the season 4-1, but it enters this one at 6-7. Unbelievably perhaps the Panthers still have a shot at the second Wild Card spot, with four other teams in the NFC sitting with an identical record. But after five straight losses, including a deflating 26-20 setback at Cleveland last weekend, I think Carolina is ripe for the picking. The Saints are already assured a playoff spot, but they still have a lot to play for here as well as they look to lock down top spot in the NFC and the coveted first round bye and home field advantage. Last week New Orleans beat the Bucs 28-14, holding a fifth consecutive opponent to 17 or fewer points. Last week Panthers’ QB Cam Newton failed to throw a TD pass for the first time this year. Newton has been hit or miss this year, as while he does have nine TD passes during the five-game slide, he’s also been intercepted at least once in all five losses and he has eight picks overall. I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is already 7-3 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-1 ATS vs. the division, while Carolina is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 vs. the division (including 1-2 ATS this season) and only 1-3 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite. With a chance to cement their lead and to end their rivals playoff chances, I look for the high-powered Saints to deliver the knock out blow. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -5 | Top | 97-102 | Push | 0 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET. The Jazz look poised for another letdown here in my opinion after getting upset 96-89 against Orlando in Mexico City on Saturday. The Rockets on the other hand, have started to turn things around. The team's impressive 105-97 road win at Memphis on Saturday was the Rockets' third in a row (also 3-0 ATS). Reigning MVP James Harden has averaged 37.0-7.7-8.3 during the streak. Note that this is a “double revenge” scenario as well, with Utah having already taken both earlier meetings this year, including a 118-91 home blowout victory in the most recent matchup December 6th. The Jazz average 106.8 PPG and they concede 106.6. It’s a fine line that Utah has to balance each night and right now it’s not going so well as the Jazz have lost three of their last four. Donovan Mitchell was a bright spot in the loss last time out with 24 points. Houston's season numbers are underwhelming but the feeling here is that the Rockets are beginning to show signs of looking more like last year's 65-win team. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of hungry Houston. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Eagles v. Rams -9 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -105 | 132 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the LA Rams (8:20 EST). Philadelphia won’t have Carson Wentz under center and they come in off a deflating 29-23 OT loss to Dallas last weekend, all but assuring the final nail in the coffin as far as trying to repeat as Super Bowl champs. LA will be eager to get back on track here after a lacklustre 15-6 road loss at Soldier Field last weekend. Philadelphia averages only 21.6 PPG and with Wentz out, I think that his backup will struggle to find chemistry right away. Nick Foles was superb during Philly’s big SB run, but there’s no question he’s being thrown to the wolves this weekend. LA averages 32.7 PPG and it allows only 24.1. With a victory today the Rams will clinch first place in the NFC West and they’ll be well on their way to clinching a first round bye as well. Additionally note that Philly is a poor 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog, while the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a road loss in which they were held to six points or less. This one has blow-out written all over it. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Raptors -1.5 v. Nuggets | 86-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. It's mid-December and who could have predicted that a Toronto/Denver matchup would feature a contest between the top teams in the Eastern and Western Conference. The 23-8 Raptors own the NBA's best record and the Nuggets lead a crowded field out West (four teams are within 1 1/2 games), topping the conference with a 19-9 mark (note: Denver sits atop the Western Conference this late in the season for the first time in its history). Both teams are facing serious injury issues. Denver is missing three starters from Opening Night, PF Paul Millsap (broken toe), guard Gary Harris (hip) and swingman Will Barton (core muscle surgery). As for Toronto, center Jonas Valanciunas underwent surgery on his dislocated left thumb Thursday and is expected to miss four to six weeks. Kawhi Leonard scored 28 Friday night at Portland after missing two games with a hip injury but PG Kyle Lowry is listed as questionable for Sunday's game with a thigh injury. He didn't play against the Trail Blazers. The Raptors will be hungry for a victory here after dropping four of their last seven. Toronto most recently fell 128-122 at Portland, two nights after destroying the Warriors in Golden State. Despite the setback, the Raptors are still an excellent 12-4 on the road this season. Denver has won nine of its last 11, most recently a 109-98 win over OKC on Friday, led by 24 points, 15 boards and nine assists from Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are 11-3 at home but note that they’re just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 after two or more consecutive SU home wins. As noted above, Toronto has been one of the league’s best road teams this season and it’s also been great in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS as a road underdog and 4-0 ATS after playing three straight road games. Final thought: The Nuggets snapped the Raptors' eight-game winning streak with a 106-103 victory on Dec 3. That was less than two weeks ago and the Raptors will remember. Lowry missed a three-pointer at the buzzer that would have tied it in that one but tonight, the game won't be close in the final minutes. Take Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | St. Louis +8.5 v. Houston | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* CBB Game of the Week is on St Louis at 3:00 ET. St Louis is 7-2 and will visit Houston (9-0 and ranked 24th in the AP poll) on Sunday. This marks the 38th meeting between the two former MVC and C-USA rivals, with St Louis holding a 24-13 lead in the series. However, in the most recent meeting last year, Houston won 77-58 at St Louis. In that game, the Billikens had two starters foul out and coughed up 16 TOs in the 19-point loss. Houston has yet to lose and considering that the Cougars enter on a 22-game home win streak (the nation's second-longest!), a 10-0 start would not come as a surprise (note: This is the third time the Cougars have started 9-0. Houston was also 9-0 in 1969-70 and won all 28 regular-season games in 1967-68 on the way to a Final Four appearance and 31-2 record). However, I think the Billikens will keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. In its first game since entering the national polls last Monday, Houston rallied from a 15-point second-half deficit to beat LSU 82-76 on Wednesday. That comes on the heels of another emotionally-draining 63-53 win at Okla State on Dec 8. St Louis has lost twice this season, by two points to Pittsburgh (in Brooklyn) on Nov 21 and by five points at Southern Illinois on Dec 5. Houston has struggled lately from behind the three-point line, hitting 25.5 percent during its past four home games. That doesn't bode well against a St Louis defense holding opponents to 26.9% on threes (12th-best) and 61.7 PPG, overall (20th). I feel that the Billikens' aggressive defensive play keeps this game competitive until the final moments. It’s also worthy of note to that the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Cardinals v. Falcons OVER 44 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 141 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Total Of The Year is on the over Cards/Falcons (1:00 EST). Two proud teams collide with nothing but pride to play for. Neither side can be happy with the way its season has unfolded to this point, but with the pressure off and with both trying to gain something positive to build off to end the season, I’m expecting more of a wide-open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.” Arizona has lost six of eight. QB Josh Rosen has 1,910 passing yards and a 10/12 TD/INT. The ground game has been the weak point to this point, averaging only 85 YPG. The defense though has also been a shell of its former self and the Falcons’ high-flying and under-achieving offense will definitely have its opportunities in facing a Cards’ unit which is allowing 25.2 PPG. The Falcons have lost five straight and they’ll be given the green light today to open up the playbook. QB Matt Ryan has been a bright spot, going for 4,076 yards along with a 28/6 TD/INT. Ryan now has two or more TD passes in five of his last eight games. I’ll point out as well that Arizona has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 21 on the road and in nine of its last 14 as a road underdog, while Atlanta has seen the total go over in 15 of its last 21 as a home favorite and in three of its last four following a loss by 14 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Bucs v. Ravens -8 | 12-20 | Push | 0 | 126 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* CRUSHER is on the Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EST). The 5-8 Buccaneers had their two game win streak snapped last week and they’ve now lost five of their last seven. They tried their best to play spoiler to division rival New Orleans, but with that attempt coming up short, I have a hard time seeing the struggling visiting side mustering up the same energy levels in this difficult non-conference road venue. Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston has 2,154 passing yards and along with a weak 14/12 TD/INT. The ground game has been terrible, averaging only 98.7 YPG. The main issue for Tampa though has been on the defensive side of the ball as it allows an atrocious 29.5 PPG. Playing defense has been no issue for Baltimore most weeks though, as it allows just 18.5 PPG, No. 1 in the NFL. This is a crucial game for Baltimore as it looks to keep pace for the Wildcard. QB Lamar Jackson had 687 passing yards and a 4/3 TD/INT, while also rushing for over 400 yards already. I’ll point out as well that Tampa is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a loss vs. a division rival, while Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in its last nine off a road loss. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-18 | Packers +6 v. Bears | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST). The 5-7-1 Green Bay Packers invade Soldier Field looking to pull off an outright upset. While I do indeed feel it’s possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Green Bay kept its slim wild card hopes alive with a convincing 34-20 win over Atlanta last weekend and there’s no reason not to think that Aaron Rodgers and company can’t keep that momentum rolling here in this “do or die” scenario. Rodgers has 3,700 yards passing and a ridiculous 23/1 TD/INT. Davante Adams has 1,196 receiving yards and 12 TDs. Overall the Packers are averaging 24.2 PPG. The Bears enter off a very satisfying 15-6 win over the Rams in their last outing and I think they’re primed for a predictable letdown here. The pressure is now on the Bears to deliver the goods, as a victory will lock up the division. QB Mitch Trubisky has 2,579 passing yards and a ho-hum 21/12 TD/INT. Overall Chicago averages 19 PPG. Additionally note that the Packers are 14-8 ATS in their last 22 after playing a home game, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five off an upset win as a home dog. The Bears play with revenge, but the Packers are playing for their lives. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -103 | 267 h 35 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on MTSU 10* (9:00 EST). MTSU is 8-5 and App State finished 10-2. Regardless of that, I think the Blue Raiders are going to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in the New Orleans Bowl. Appalachian State beat Louisiana in the Sun Belt Title game to earn this spot. QB Zac Thomas had 75 yards passing, 59 yards rushing and two TDs. MTSU fell to UAB in its conference championship game. QB Brent Stockstill had 362 yards passing with two TDs, while Zack Dobson posted 52 yards rushing. I’ll point out though that MTSU is 4-1 ATS In is last five following an ATS loss, while App State is only 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a two weeks or longer break between games. I think Stockstill is the difference and i look for the talented pivot to keep his underdog team in this one late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Cincinnati v. Mississippi State -5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout is on Miss St at 8:30 ET. Cincinnati looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after nine straight wins. Mississippi State comes into this one ranked No. 18 and on a five-game win streak of its own. In closing, Cincinnati has yet to crack the top-25 this season despite a 9-1 record. Meanwhile, Mississippi St is 8-1 coming off an impressive 82-71 win last week over Clemson on a neutral court in Newark, N.J. and is ranked 18th. Note that this will be Bearcats' most challenging away game of the year (by far) and that the Bulldogs' confidence is running high after not only the Clemson win (19 made three-pointers were a school record) but also a 65-58 road win at Dayton (Nov. 30). Cincinnati won 65-50 over Miss St last year at home, a game in which MSU head coach Ben Howland claimed his team did too much standing around and not enough ball movement vs the Cincy zone. Expect that to change here and remember, the Bearcats are missing players that produced 49 of their 65 points in Jacob Evans III, Kyle Washington and Gary Clark. Two are NBA players and the other is playing professionally overseas. REVENGE works in a big way here! Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +2.5 | 105-97 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:05 EST). I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this contest. One wonders how the Rockets can be just 13-14, after winning a league-high 65 games last season? Meanwhile, after winning only 22 games last season (only the Suns with 21, won fewer), Memphis checks in at 18-12. Yes, Houston's off a 126-111 win over LA on Thursday (Harden had a 50-point triple-double) but Houston entered that game on a 3-8 ATS run. Memphis is 4th in the league in defensive efficiency (ranks 2nd in points allowed at 102.0 per), while Houston is 24th (ranks 12th in allowing 109.6 PPG). Memphis actually split four games with Houston last season (remember, Houston won 65 games and Memphis just 22), so the home dog sure seems like it has a great chance to 'bark loudly' in this one! Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Lakers +1 v. Hornets | Top | 128-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers (7:05 EST). This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. And we don’t have to overthink this one at all. LA got steamrolled by James Harden's 50-point triple-double in a 126-111 loss at Houston on Thursday but enjoyed the advantage of relaxing in Charlotte on Friday night while the Hornets were working overtime with the New York Knicks. In fact, the Hornets entered the fourth quarter with a 15-point lead on Friday, before suffering an 'ugly' 126-124 overtime loss. Charlotte has won six of the last 7 in this series but the Lakers have covered SIX straight in Charlotte. Of course, those games were all played before LBJ "took his talents" to Los Angeles. "King James" has gone 17-5 in North Carolina for the Cavaliers and Heat over the past 14 seasons, scoring 30 or more points 10 times and 35 or more four times, with a high of 41 in a 118-105 win last March. With the bonus of a scheduling advantage (see above), expect LBJ to lead LA to the team's 16th win in its last 22 games. At this price, I'm "all in" on the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Washington +6.5 v. Virginia Tech | 61-73 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My 9* Tourney Takedown is on Washington at 7:00 ET. Virginia Tech is 8-1 and it most recently enters off an 81-44 victory over lowly South Carolina State. Washington on the other hand almost beat then No. 1 Gonzaga to take down Seattle 70-62 this past weekend. Washington and Va Tech squared off last year at Madison Square Garden and the result was a 103-79 Hokies' romp! No wonder, as Va Tech connected on 60 percent from the floor, including making 15 of 22 three-pointers. Yes, Va Tech remains an excellent three-point shooting team (44.9% ranks 2nd in the nation) but I expect Washington's zone defense (similar to Syracuse's zone, as Mike Hopkins is a Boeheim disciple) will do a much better job this time around. A Dec 5 loss at the buzzer (81-79) to then-No. 1 Gonzaga proves that Washington can play against the nation’s elite. Take the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Georgia Southern +1 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 263 h 5 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Georgia Southern 8* (5:30 EST). The 9-3 Georgia Southern Eagles take on the 7-5 EMU Eagles in the Cramton Bowl and in my opinion, this one has “blowout” written all over it. EMU finished on a three-game win streak and No. 2 in the MAC. Tyler Wiegers has 1,887 passing yards and an 11/3 TD/INT. Overall the Eagles have been weak defensively though, conceding 27.5 PPG. Georgia Southern QB Shai Werts has 954 passing yards with ten TDs through the air, with another 822 yards on the ground and another 13 major scores. Like the counterparts, the Eagles have struggled defensively this season, conceding 31.1 PPG. I’ll point out though that Georgia Southern is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games, while EMU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing with two or more weeks of rest. Georgia Southern finished in the top 10 in the FBS in rushing yards per game with almost 200 YPG. I have a hard time seeing EMU keeping pace down the stretch. Play on Georgia Southern. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Texans -6 v. Jets | Top | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 121 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Texans (4:30 EST). The 9-4 Texans looks to get back on track after a 24-21 loss to the Colts at home last weekend. A date against the hapless Jets is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion. Houston QB DeShaun Watson had 267 yards and a TD last week, as well as 35 rushing yards. Indianapolis had lost at home to Houston earlier in the year and it was also coming off a horrible 6-0 loss to the Jags and the Texans just weren’t able to keep pace down the stretch to extend their win streak. But a 4-9 Jets team that comes in off an upset win over the Bills looks ripe for a letdown. Jets’ rookie QB Sam Darnold had 170 yards, a TD and a pick. I’ll point out though that the Texans are 3-1 ATS at this year vs. teams with losing records and 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing a home game, while New York is just 4-6 ATS as an underdog this saxon and only 2-4 ATS at home. I’m expecting Watson and company to respond big in this favorable matchup. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State -4.5 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 261 h 5 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Fresno State 8* (3:30 EST). I think the 11-2 Fresno State Bulldogs will run right over the 7-5 Arizona State Sun Devils. Fresno State has won ten of its last 11 games and another victory would be the schools most in its history. QB Marcus McMaryion has 3,453 yards passing and an elite 25/3 TD/INT. Defensively the Bulldogs have been dominant as well, allowing only 13.7 PPG. Arizona State won five of its final eight games of the regular season. QB Manny Wilkins has 2,896 passing yards and a sharp 19/4 TD/INT. Defensively the Sun Devils are allowing 25.1 PPG. I’ll point out though that Fresno State is 8-2 ATS in its last ten non-conference games, while Arizona State is just 2-7 ARTS in its last nine bowl games. Fresno State is on a mission for one last victory and it has the superior team on both sides of the ball. I have a hard time seeing ASU keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-18 | Villanova +8.5 v. Kansas | 71-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Villanova at 12:00 ET. Revenge will be in the air at Allen Fieldhouse today, as Villanova made a Final Four-record 18 three-pointers last spring in a 95-79 win over Kansas, two days before clinching its second national championship in three seasons. However, the revenge angle doesn't always work. Kansas opened the season at No. 1 and is back atop the poll after Gonzaga lost last week. However, while the Jayhawks are 8-0, three of the their last four wins have come by six points or fewer, two in OT plus a 63-60 triumph over New Mexico State last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. An ankle injury to junior center Udoka Azubuike has created a delicate balance in Kansas' rotation. Villanova was been ranked as high as No. 8 but was bounced out of the polls after back-to-back losses Nov 14 & 17. The now 17th-ranked Wildcats ripped off SIX consecutive wins after that but then a 78-75 loss to Penn on Tuesday ended that winning streak, as well as a 25-game streak against Philadelphia Big-Five rivals.I believe the challenge of facing the nation's No. 1 team is just what the doctor ordered for Villanova. Remember, Kansas has trailed in ALL of its games with the largest deficits averaging out at 8.1 points. Take the points! |
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12-14-18 | Raptors v. Blazers +3 | Top | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Month (Non-Conf) is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors opened the current season 12-1 before losing three straight from Nov 12-16. However, after dominating road wins at the LA Clippers on Tuesday (123-99) and at the Golden St Warriors on Wednesday (113-93), the entire NBA is 'looking up' at the Raptors and their NBA-best 23-7 mark. Meanwhile, the Portland Blazers opened the season an impressive 10-3 but after back-to-back road losses this week at Houston (Tue) and Memphis (Wed), the team welcomes the Raptors to Moda Center having dropped 10 of its last 15 games (3-12 ATS). Toronto dominated the two-time defending champions in that 113-93 road win on Wednesday, despite being without Kawhi Leonard (hip). PG Kyle Lowry had shot 4-of-28 from the floor over a four-game span but made 17-of-31 FG attempts against the Warriors and Clippers in Toronto's first two contests of this four-game road trip. Meanwhile, the Blazers are returning home after a two-game road trip (see above). Shooting guard CJ McCollum scored 40 points on 16-of-27 shooting in Wednesday's 92-83 loss to the Grizzlies but the rest of the team went 16-of-60 (26.7%) from the floor. That includes PG Damian Lillard (4-of-18) and center Jusuf Nurkic (1-of-15)! Toronto had lost three of four before beating the Clippers and Warriors. Leonard (26.1 & 8.3) sat out both wins with a balky hip (he's listed as questionable here). Also, center Jonas Valanciunas (12.8 & 7.2) underwent surgery Wednesday night after dislocating his left thumb against the Warriors. He will wear a cast for four weeks and then begin rehabilitation. Sure, the Blazers are reeling but just how does Toronto avoid a letdown? Any chance that Lillard (27.0-5.1-6.1) and Nurkic (14.5 & 10.5) will combine to shoot 5-of-33 again, as they did Wednesday against Memphis? Portland brings back memories of "RIP City" in earning a BIG win in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-18 | Wizards v. Nets -1.5 | 118-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My 9* Wipeout Winner is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:35 EST). Washington comes in off a deflating 130-125 OT loss at home to the Celtics on Wednesday, while the Nets enter off a confidence building 127-124 road win on the same night. These teams have split a pair of games this year, but the Nets play with revenge here after falling 102-88 in the Nation’s capital in the latest back on December 1st. Washington averages 110.1 PPG and it conceds 116.9. Guard Bradley Beal leads the nightly charge with 22.9 points per game. Star John Wall is listed as questionable for this one and if he does play, one definitely has to wonder if he’s at 100% health or not? Brooklyn comes in on top form having won three straight. The Nets average 109.3 PPG and they concede 111.1. Spencer Dinwiddie averages 16.9 points and 4.9 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Brooklyn is 13-7 ATS in its last 20 following a three games or more SU unbeaten streak, while Washington is only 5-21 ATS in its last 26 on the road. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Nets. Good luck…Larry |
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12-13-18 | Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 77 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Thursday GAME OF THE YEAR is on the LA Chargers (8:20 EST). It goes without saying that this is an important game. The Chiefs are fantastic on offense, but downright terrible defensively. The Chargers are the more complete all around team and they have the more experienced QB. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can. LA enters off a 26-21 home win over the Bengals last week, avoiding a potential “trap.” The Chiefs could be running out of gas after their 27-24 OT home win over Baltimore this past weekend. The Chargers have won three straight and nine of ten. Philip Rivers has 3,638 passing yards with a 29/6 TD/INT. LA is 5-1 ATS on the road so far this season. The Chiefs are 3-3 ATS at home this year. QB Patrick Mahomes has a 43/11 TD/INT. The team has plenty of talent, bur recent off field issues involving star player Kareem Hunt could also be taking its toll. I’ll point out as well that the Chargers are already 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, while the Chiefs are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight after scoring 25 or or more points in five straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-13-18 | Lakers +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* TNT Knockout is on the LA Lakers (8:05 EST). The Rockets have been consistently inconsistent to open the 2018/19 NBA campaign and after a 111-104 home win over Portland in their latest action, I expect this trend of futility to continue here against this hungry visiting side. The Lakers come to town off a 108-105 home win over the Heat. Note that this is a “triple revenge” game for the Lakers as well, including losing the first meeting of the year 124-115 back on October 20th. LA is quietly dominating, as it comes in having won two straight and six of its last seven. Overall the Lakers average 113.1 PPG and they concede 110.9. LeBron James averages 28.3 points, 7.7 boards and 7.1 assists per night. Houston averages only 108.4 PPG and it concedes 109.5. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 30 points and 5.3 boards per game. I’ll point out though that the Rockets are a terrible 1-5 ATS in their last six when playing on one days rest, while LA is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-18 | Raptors v. Warriors -6.5 | 113-93 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My 9* Late Breaking Play is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). The Raptors come in off a win against the Clippers just last night and I think they’ll struggle with energy in this difficult road venue and in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. After a shaky stretch and with the return of “captain” Stephen Curry, the Warriors come in on top form with four straight victories. Not only is Curry back for the Warriors, but so too is swingman Draymond Green, who returned after an 11 game absence to post seven points, ten boards, seven assist and one block in 29 minutes in his team’s most recent win over the Wolves. I’ll point out as well that Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. teams with winning road records, while Toronto is now just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 vs. the Western Conference. Note as well that that Raptors are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 at Oracle Arena. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-18 | Blazers v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 83-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF GAME OF MONTH is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:05 EST). The Blazers enter off a hard-fought and exhausting loss in Houston just last night and I think it’ll come in with “heavy legs” in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Rockets were desperate for a victory last night and so too are the Grizzlies after a two game slide in this one. I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular selection. Damian Lillard was a bright spot in last night’s loss for the Blazers, finishing with 34 points, two boards and two assists, but one has to wonder how much “gas” he has left in the tank here? The Grizzlies have looked a lot better this season, but after being held to under 100 points in back-to-back games, I think that Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and company get out and push the pace of this one from start to finish. I’ll point out as well that memphis 11-4 ATS in its last 15 at home and 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. teams with losing SU road records, while Portland is now 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road. Memphis is tough at home (8-4) and in my opinion, it has a significant advantage tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-18 | Thunder -1.5 v. Pelicans | 114-118 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). New Orleans is struggling after a fast start and the rumours of star Anthony Davis being on the “trade block” isn’t helping ease tensions these days. The Thunder got off to a terrible start to the 2018/19 campaign, but they’ve been on fire ever since and I think they carry that momentum over here into this potentially dangerous match-up. OKC enters off a 122-113 win over the Jazz on Monday, getting 31 points from Paul George. Overall the Thunder average 108.1 points per 100 possessions, while allowing only 101.6 points per 100 possessions, which ranks first in the league. New Orleans averages 112.7 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 111.3 points per 100 possessions. Anthony Davis had 41 points in a loss to the Celtics in the Pelicans most recent action. I’ll point out as well that OKC is already 7-2 ATS this year after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, wile New Orleans is already 0-4 ATS this season off a road loss of ten points or more. Davis is having a hard time carrying the load by himself and I think he’ll struggle again here against this deep and defensively talented visiting side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-18 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 219.5 | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Blazers/Rockets (8:05 EST). Portland comes in off a 113-105 home win over Minnesota, while Houston enters off a 107-104 road loss in Dallas. Houston is looking to break out of its early season slump and to avenge a 104-85 setback to the Blazers on October 30th. I’m expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Portland’s won two straight. Overall the Blazers average 112.3 PPG and concede 110.4. Damian Lillard leads the nightly charge with 27.2 points and 6.4 assists per night. Houston averages 108.3 PPG and it concedes 109.7. James Harden leads the team with 30 points, 5.5 boards and 8.3 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Portland’s already seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this season, while Houston has seen the total fly over in its last three following a loss by 14 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:15 EST). With so much on the line, I think that home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Vikes enter off a 24-10 road loss in New England last Sunday and now they travel across country to play in another extremely difficult venue. Seattle on the other hand comes in off a momentum building 43-16 destruction of the 49ers and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Minnesota averages only 22.9 PPG and it concedes 22.5. Kirk Cousins has a 23/9 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 30 times this year. Last week the Vikes committed two fumbles and only created one of their own. Seattle averages 26.6 PPG and it concedes 21.6. QB Russell Wilson has a 29/5 TD/INT and he’s been sacked 37 times. I’ll point out though that Seattle is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight after posting 150 yards rushing in its previous game, while Minnesota is a terrible 2-9 ATS in its last 11 Monday night contests and just 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. teams with winning records. The Hawks’ look better on offense, as their ground game is firing on all cylinders. I have a hard time seeing the visitors keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -6 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). The Jazz enter off a loss in San Antonio just last night and I think they’ll stumble here as well in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Thunder have turned their season around after a horrible start, but they’ll be eager to return to form after a 114-112 road loss to Chicago. Utah is scuffling right now, having gone 5-6 in its last 11. Overall the Jazz are averaging 107.4 PPG and conceding 107.6. Rudy Gobert is averaging 15 points and 12.4 boards per game. OKC averages 111.1 PPG and it concedes 104.4. The Thunder are 9-3 SU at home and I think they’ll lay the hammer down from start to finish in this one. Note that Utah is a horrible 14-25 ATS in its last 39 as a road underdog of six points or less, while OKC is 24-15 ATS in its last 39 as a home favorite of six points or less. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-18 | Kings -2.5 v. Bulls | 108-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Sacramento Kings (8:05 EST). The Kings are 13-12 and the Bulls are 6-21. Overall Sacramento is averaging 114.5 PPG and it’s allowing 116. Buddy Hield is averaging 18.8 points and 5.4 boards per game, while De’Aaron Fox averages 17.8 points and 7.6 assists. The Bulls have lost 12 of their last 14. Chicago is averaging 102.3 PPG and it’s conceding 113. Overall the Bulls have lost five of their last seven SU at home. These are two terrible teams and while the Bulls are getting healthier (the return of Lauri Markkanen is huge obviously), the home side lacks the depth and scoring talent to keep up with the Kings in my opinion. Note as well that the Bulls are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven when playing on one days rest, while the Kings are still 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Jazz v. Spurs +3.5 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My 9* Wipeout Winner is on the San Antonio Spurs (7:05 EST). Utah’s won four of the last five in this series, including a blowout 139-105 victory at home in the first meeting this year. San Antonio plays with revenge and I think it’ll at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably come away with the ATS cover. Utah comes in off a 118-91 win over the Rockets on Thursday, while SA posted a 133-120 home win over the Lakers most recently. The Jazz average 107.4 PPG and they concede 107.2. Donovan Mitchell leads the nightly charge with 20.6 PPG. San Antonio is averaging 110.3 PPG and it’s conceding 114. DeMar DeRozan averages 24.7 points and six assists per night. Note though that Utah is just 2-5 ATS already this season after covering in three of its last four ATS, while San Antonio is 3-1 ATS this season as a home underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Spurs. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Purdue v. Texas +1.5 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Game Of The Week is on Texas (6:00 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. Texas comes in as the “hungrier” team here after three straight losses. After a 5-0 start, the Longhorns come in desperate and focused. Purdue comes in off an upset win over Maryland on Thursday, breaking a two-game slide. The Boilermakers are averaging only 64 PPG over their last three games. Carsen Edwards had 20 points in the most recent victory. Texas has quality wins this year (92-89 victory over UNC on Nov. 22nd), but it’s since fallen on hard times. The talent is there though to turn things around, as Jericho Sims is a force to be reckoned with on most nights, scoring 14 in the most recent setback to VCU. Purdue though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games. Conversely, the Longhorns have responded well in this spot by going 6-1 ATS in their last seven off an upset loss as a home favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Battle 4 1st Play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (4:25 EST). The 6-6 Eagles face the 7-5 Cowboys with their season on the line once again and I believe the improving defending champs will once again find a way to get the job done. After losing three of four, Philadelphia has won back-to-back crucial games over the Giants and Redskins. Last weekend Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz had 306 yards passing, two TDs and an INT, while WR Golden Tate had 85 receiving yards and a TD catch. The Eagles play with revenge here as well, as Dallas comes in having won four straight, starting with the Eagles and then followed by the Falcons, Redskins and Saints. Last week Cowboy QB Dak Prescott had 248 yards and a TD, while Ezekiel Elliot had 76 yards. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last five in revenging a close loss by 7 points or less vs. an opponent, while Dallas is only 0-2 ATS in its last two after two straight home victories. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Colts +5 v. Texans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 116 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Indianapolis (1:00 EST). This is a big game for both teams. The Colts come in off a 6-0 road loss to Jacksonville though and they’ll be hungry to bounce back here and to avenge a 37-34 OT home loss to the Texans ealier in the year. The Texans have been one of the hottest teams in the league, but regression at some point is imminent and after last week’s 29-13 home victory over Cleveland, I believe we’ll see that in this important divisional matchup. Luck was dominant in the loss to the Texans, posting 464 passing yards and four TDs. The Colts are averaging 27.1 PPG and conceding only 23.2. Houston has been fantastic overall, but its weakness on defense is clearly against the pass. Houston’s won nine straight. It’s difficult to win every single week in the NFL and I think the Texans are primed for a letdown here finally. The Texans come in averaging 25.2 PPG and conceding 19.6. I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Houston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after two or more straight ATS victories. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Ravens v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 116 h 6 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U play is the under Ravens/Chiefs (1:00 EST). Baltimore comes in off a 26-16 road win over Atlanta last weekend, while the Chiefs posted a 40-33 win over the Raiders. If Kansas City is going to move ahead in the playoffs, it’s going to have to learn how to play defense at some point. The Ravens won’t be looking to turn this one into a shootout. Instead the visitors will be hoping to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense off the field as play whenever possible. And that means clock control while on offense themselves. Baltimore rookie RB Lamar Jackson has started three straight games and led his team to victory in each. He only has 540 passing yards with a weak 2/3 TD/INT, but he’s also posted a thrilling 404 rushing yards. Overall the Ravens are averaging 24.8 PPG and allowing an NFL best 17.8. The Chiefs are averaging 37 PPG and conceding 27.2. Mahomes has a stellar 41/10 TD/INT thus far. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore has seen the total go under the under in four of six on the road already this year, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 23 as a home favorite. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Giants v. Redskins +3.5 | 40-16 | Loss | -105 | 116 h 60 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Redskins (1:00 EST). The 4-8 New York Giants are looking to deliver the knock out blow to the Redskins, but I think the desperate home side keeps this one competitive. The over-achieving Giants look primed for a letdown here in my opinion after winning three of their last four. Note though that despite that New York has still dropped four of its last six on the road. QB Eli Manning has a weak 15/8 TD/INT. So far Manning has one or less TD pass in eight of his 11 games. New York has been weak on the defensive side of the ball as well by conceding 26.3 PPG. A win today the Skins are back above .500 and right back in the NFC playoff race. QB Mark Sanchez will get the call here, but I’m not basing my play on the veteran whatsoever. Washington has many other weapons, including Jordan Reed and Josh Doctson. Overall Washington has been decent defensively, allowing 21.4 PPG. I’ll point out as well that New York is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite and only 1-5 ATS in its last six off an upset win as an underdog, while Washington is already a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as a home underdog and 7-3 ATS in its last ten following a loss by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Panthers -1 v. Browns | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). The 6-6 Carolina Panthers have no hopes of catching the New Orleans Saints for the division lead, but they’ll be looking to keep their slim wild card hopes alive with a win today. It’s do or die for Carolina after four-straight losses. QB Cam Newton has a 24/11 TD’INT and he has two or more TD passes in each of his last 11 games. The defense, once a strength, has taken a step back this year, allowing 25.5 PPG. However, that unit catches a break facing the Browns inconsistent offense which averages only 21.3 PPG. Cleveland may have won three of its last five at home, but overall it’s dropped five of its last seven. QB Baker Mayfield has an 18/10 TD/INT. The Browns have been weak defensively as well in conceding 26 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference road games following a three games or more losing streak, while Cleveland is just 8-19 ATS in its last 27 at home. I look at Mayfield and I look at Newton and then I place my wager on Carolina. Play on the Panthers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-18 | Arizona +1.5 v. Alabama | 73-76 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
My 9* Wipeout Winner is on Arizona (1:00 EST). Arizona enters off an 80-69 win over Utah Valley, while Alabama enters off a deflating 83-80 loss to Georgia State. If recent history is any precedence then the visitors have to be liking their chances today, as they’d post the 88-82 home win in this matchup last year. The Wildcats have won three straight. Overall they’re averaging 78.8 PPG and conceding just 67.6. Brandon Randolph is averaging 17.1 PPG. Alabama is averaging 75.8 PPG and it’s allowing 71.9. Dazon Ingram was a bright spot in the most recent upset loss with 17 points on five of six shooting. I’ll point out though that the Crimson Tide are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven at home and only 1-5 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss, while Arizona is interestingly 7-3 ATS in its last ten non-conference road games after a three games or more SU unbeaten streak. For all the reasons listed above, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-18 | Notre Dame v. UCLA -6 | Top | 62-65 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on UCLA (10:30 EST). The Irish’s four game win streak was snapped in an 85-80 loss to Oklahoma last time out and I think ND will suffer a predictable letdown here as well in this difficult road venue. UCLA on the other hand avoided any “traps” heading into this one with back-to-back convincing victories over Hawaii and Loyola Marymount. The Irish were completely dominated by the Sooners on both ends of the court in their latest setback. They’d go on to shoot just 28.0 percent from range. TJ Gibbs was a bright spot in defeat with 18 points, three assists and three boards. UCLA was led by 17 points from both Kris Wilkes and Jaylen Hands in the Bruins most recent win. UCLA has done well in this spot for bettors as well, going 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference home games following a two games or more unbeaten streak, while Notre Dame has struggled, going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-18 | Kings v. Pacers -3 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Indiana Pacers (7:05 EST). Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back, which really makes home court a big advantage for the Pacers in this match-up in my professional opinion. The Kings come in off a big 129-110 road win in Cleveland, while The Pacers return home off a big 112-90 win over Orlando on Friday. Note that this is an in season revenge game for Indiana, which fell 111-110 in Sacramento only last week. It’s a natural letdown spot for Sacramento, which plays its final game of its Eastern swing. Sacramento averages 114.7 PPG and it concedes 116.6. De’Aaron Fox averages 17.3 points and 7.5 assists per night. Indiana comes in having won straight. The Pacers average 105.8 PPG and they concede just 102.1. Victor Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 21.4 points, 6.6 boards and 1.56 steal per game. Even with Oladipo out, I love the Pacers here. Note that Sacramento is a terrible 10-17 ATS in its last 27 after covering five or six of its last seven games against the spread, while Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last seven when playing the second game of a back to back. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-18 | Rockets -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Battle 4 Texas is on the Houston Rockets (6:05 EST). Houston will be desperate her after its terrible start. The Rockets come in off a humbling 118-91 road loss to Utah on Thursday. After a great stretch, the Mavs have also come back down to Earth, most recently getting drubbed 118-91 on the road in New Orleans. Note that this is an in-season revenge game for the Rockets too after the Mavericks took a 128-108 road victory in the first match-up of the season. Overall the Rockets are averaging 108.5 PPG and conceding 109.8. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 29.8 points, 5.6 boards and 8.3 assists per game. The Mavericks are averaging 110.6 PPG and they’re allowing 109.6. Luke Doncic leads the way with 18.1 points, 6.5 boards and 4.3 assists per night. I’ll point out though that Houston is 18-11 ATS in its last 29 in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Dallas is only 2-8 ATS in its last ten (including 1-3 ATS this season) after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-18 | Michigan State -3 v. Florida | 63-59 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Michigan State (12:00 EST). MSU posted a 90-68 home win over Iowa in its latest action, while Florida beat WVU 66-56. Michigan State is averaging 87.2 PPG and it’s conceding 68.7. After a loss to Louisville the Spartans have won two straight. In the latest victory Nick Ward had 26 points and went 10 from 10 from the floor. Florida is averaging only 71 PPG and it’s allowing 61.6. KeVaughn Allen had 19 points in the win over the Mountaineers. Note though that the Gators are only 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while Michigan State is 4-0 ATS In its last four vs. teams with a win percentage above .600 and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. I have a hard time seeing the Gators’ offense matching pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-18 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 219.5 | Top | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* TV Total Mismatch is the over Philly/Detroit (7:05 EST). Philly had its five-game win streak snapped in a tough 113-102 road loss in Toronto on Friday, while Detroit enters off a poor 115-92 road loss in Milwaukee. Both teams will be eager to return to form and as such, I’m expecting a wide-open run and gun shootout rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle. Detroit will be extra motivated here as well after back-to-back poor showings and to also avenge a 109-99 loss to the 76ers on November 3rd. Philly averages 113.7 PPG and it concedes 111.8. Big man Joel Embiid leads the way with 26.3 points, 13.3 boards and 1.96 blocks per game. Detroit averages 109.4 PPG and it concedes 109.5. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 24.9 points, 9.1 boards and five assists per night. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go over in 10 of its last 14 after playing to three or more straight “unders,” while Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in both games that it’s played in this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz -1.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Knockout is on the Utah Jazz (10:35 EST). Houston has allowed 116.1 PPG over its last nine games. It has caused the team's defensive rating to tumble to 25th among NBA teams. The Rockets' offense has not been up to last year's standard (109.2 PPG ranks 18th) ) and it hasn't been able to keep up. The result has been five losses over their last seven contests. Meanwhile, Utah has won four of its last six games and knocked down a franchise-record 20 three-pointers in Tuesday's 139-105 rout of the San Antonio Spurs (10 different players connected on at least one from behind the arc during the impressive victory). Utah cruised to a 100-89 road win in the first matchup of this series back in late October and I believe it’ll have an even easier time of it today. Note as well that Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest, while Houston is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Rockets’ star Chris Paul was just one of eight form the floor in the loss to Minnesota most recently and I think he’ll struggle again here against this surging home side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 37 | Top | 9-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* play on the over Jaguars/Titans (8:20 EST). The Jags come in off a 6-0 win at home over the Colts, while the Titans saved their season with a late 26-22 home win over the Jets. Tennessee took the first game this year 9-6, but I’m finally expecting more of a wide open shootout on the short week between these two desperate teams. The Jags defense stepped up with their best performance of the season last week, but consistency on the road and from game to game has been Jacksonville’s biggest problem this year. The Titans had to rally from a 16-0 first half deficit last week and I fully expect Tennessee to keep that momentum rolling here. And from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout, as note that Jacksonville has seen the total go over the number in its last three in revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a favorite, while Tennessee has seen the total go over in seven of its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-18 | Utah State v. BYU -1.5 | 80-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on BYU (9:00 EST). BYU comes in as the “hungrier” team after a three-game losing streak. Utah State on the other hand is primed for a predictable letdown here in my opinion after back-to-back victories. The Aggies currently rank among the nation’s best in scoring and rebounding, but strength of schedule has to be taken into account in my opinion. In their 89-65 blowout win over UC Irvine last Saturday, Quinn Taylor had 21 points, six boards and one assist. The Cougars have lost three straight after winning five straight. Most recently BYU lost 113-103 to Weber State. Yoeli Childs had 31 points, seven boards and three assists. I’ll point out as well that Utah State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a road underdog of six points or less or pick, while BYU is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games. For all the reasons listed above, play on BYU. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-18 | Nebraska v. Minnesota +3 | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Showdown is on Minnesota (9:00 EST). Minnesota comes in as the “hungrier” team after losing two of its last three. The competition has been stiff though, most recently to Ohio State and Boston College. The Cornhuskers come in complacent here in my opinion after three straight wins over Illinois, Clemson and Western Illinois. Nebraska comes in off a satisfying 75-60 win over Illinois. Guard James Palmer Jr. had 23 points. Minnesota had a difficult time moving the ball vs. the No. 17 ranked scoring defense in Ohio State. But the Golden Gophers come in hungry and focused and I think they make the most of the home court advantage. I’ll point out as well that Nebraska is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 after covering two of its last thee vs. the spread. while Minnesota is already a perfect 3-0 ATS at home this season. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-18 | 76ers +6 v. Raptors | 102-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My 9* Showdown is on the Philadelphia 76ers (8:05 EST). Philadelphia lost 129-112 in Toronto in the first matchup of the year back on October 30th. The 76ers have since “found” themselves and they come into this one on top form. While the outright victory is clearly not out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last. The Raptors are ripe for the picking after a disheartening 106-103 home loss to Denver. The 76ers on the other hand have won four straight, most recently a 103-95 victory at home over Memphis. Philadelphia averages 114.2 PPG and it allows 111.8. Joel Embiid averages 27 points, 13.4 boards and two blocks per game. Toronto averages 116.6 PPG and it concedes 108.3. Kawhi Leonard leads the way with 25.6 points and 8.5 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Philly is already a solid 4-2 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Toronto is only 5-8 ATS at home this season. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-18 | Nuggets -5 v. Magic | Top | 124-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Denver Nuggets (7:05 EST). At some point the Nuggets are going to have a letdown, but I don’t think that tonight is that night. Denver enters off a confidence building 106-103 road win over the Raptors. The Magic come in off a very satisfying win in Miami just last night and I think they’re primed for a predictable letdown vs. this deep and talented non-conference visiting side. The Nuggets come in on top form having won six straight. Denver averages 110.2 PPG and it concedes 102.7. Nikola Jokic leads the way with 16.7 points, 9.7 boards and 7.5 assists per night. The Magic average 105.8 PPG and they concede 108.1. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Nikola Vucevic leads the nightly charge with 21 points, 11.3 boards and 3.8 assists per night. I’ll point out as well that Orlando is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, while Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road. Look for these strong trends to continue and lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-18 | Ohio State v. Illinois +5.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Underdog Shocker is on Illinois (7:00 EST). Ohio State enters off a satisfying 79-59 home win over Minnesota and I think it’ll get caught looking past its lowly opponent today. Illinois is hungry here, off a 75-60 loss to Nebraska in its Big Ten opener. The Illini play with revenge here as well (not surprisingly), after Ohio State posted the 75-67 home win last season. The Buckeyes are 7-1 and averaging 78.4 PPG, while conceding 60.1. Kaleb Wesson was a standout in the latest victory with 15 points. The Illini are averaging 77.4 PPG and they’re allow 77.1. Illinoishas faced a stiff opening schedule though and I think a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered. Trent Frazier leads the nightly charge and he’ll be eager to return to form after posting a combined 15 points over the last two games. I’ll printout though that Ohio State has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 off a home win of ten points or more. Illinois on the other hand is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after a loss by ten points or more. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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12-04-18 | West Virginia v. Florida -1.5 | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on Florida (9:30 EST). WVU comes in contented after four straight wins. The Gators lost 61-54 to Butler, but then bounced back to beat North Florida 98-66. This is Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden and i think the defensive minded Gators have the upper hand. Overall Florida averages 71.7 PPG and it concedes 62.4. West Virginia has indeed won four in a row, but against pretty middling competition (St. Joes, Valparasio, Rider and Youngstown State.) Overall the Mountainteers are averaging 86.4 PPG and conceding 75.9. I’ll point out though that WVU just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 following an ATS win, while Florida is 7-2 ATS in its last nine neutral site games after scoring 80 points or more in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Gators. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-18 | Georgia State v. Alabama -7.5 | Top | 83-80 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Alabama (8:00 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. Alabama comes in off an upset loss to UCF and I believe it’ll take its frustrations out on Georgia State. The Panthers enter off a blowout loss to Liberty. But a little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Tide to get back on track, as their only two losses have come on the road this year. D’Marcus Simonds had 22 points, five assists and three boards in Georgia State’s loss to the Flames. Leading scorer Damon Wilson though was held to just four points. The Tide have had a week off since their upset loss to the Golden Knights. It was a bad shooting night for the Tide, going 37.9 percent from the floor and 20.8 percent from range. Kira Lewis Jr. was a stand out in the defeat with 14 points, two boards and two assists. I’ll point out though that Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss, while Georgia State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss of more than 20 points and just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games vs. teams with winning home records. The Panthers lack the size and depth to compete with this rested and focused Alabama side. But outside of Simonds, the visitors lack scoring punch and I have a hard time seeing the under-manned visitors keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-18 | Magic v. Heat -2 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Miami Heat (7:35 EST). Orlando comes in off a 99-85 road win over Phoenix on Friday and I think it’ll stumble here with the extra time off and in this difficult venue. The Heat enter off a confidence building 102-100 home win over Utah on Sunday. Note that this is a revenge game as well for Miami after the Magic won 104-101 in the first meeting at home back in mid October. Orlando is averaging 105.8 PPG and it’s conceding 108.1. Nikola Vucevic leads the way with 21 points, 11.3 boards and 3.8 assists per night. Miami averages 108.2 PPG and it concedes 109.6. Hassan Whiteside is averaging 13.6 points, 13.9 boards and 2.9 blocks per game. I’ll point out as well that the Magic are a terrible 3-6 ATS in their last nine when playing with three or more days of rest, while Miami is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 in trying to revenge a close loss of three points or less to an opponent. Miami has won back-to-back games and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here as well and to avenge the earlier loss to their division rival. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-18 | Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Skins/Eagles (8:15 EST). To say this is a big game would be an understatement. It’s a “must win” game for both teams. A victory assures nothing, other than “being in the playoff picture” for another week, while a loss “seals the deal” on a disappointing season. With so much on the line, I’m absolutely expecting more of a “chess match,” where field position and ball control becomes paramount in the end. Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency. The Redskins are down to the backup QB in Colt McCoy after losing Alex Smith to injury for the year. McCoy was unspectacular in the Thanksgiving day loss to the Texans, going for 268 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Clearly Washington won’t be asking McCoy to do too much more than just manage the game today, as the visitors establish the run game and hope that their defense and special teams come up big. The Eagles needed a late rally to salvage their season last week, pulling away for a 25-22 win over the Giants. Carson Wentz was an efficient 20 of 28 for 236 yards and a TD. RB Josh Adams was big with 84 yards on 22 carries. But like the Redskins, the Eagles are going to be relying on their defense to come up big today and to dictate the pace of this one. Note that Washington has seen the total go under the number in its last four road games when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of six home games already this season. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans UNDER 237.5 | Top | 129-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* West-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under LA/NO (8:05 EST). What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s “run and gun” offense and very little defense. These are indeed two of the higher-scoring teams in the league, but each comes in off an exhausting game just last night. While these clubs normally play to “shootouts,” I think the overall conditions finally point to a lower-scoring defensive battle. LA plays with revenge here after falling 116-109 in the first meeting between the teams this year. The Clippers come in dejected off a 114-110 loss in Dallas on Monday, while the Pelicans return home contented after a 119-109 road win in Charlotte. After winning nine of their last ten, I think a predictable letdown is in store for the over-achieving Clippers in the second game of the back to back. New Orleans has been “hit or miss” all year as well, going just 5-6 in its last 11 overall, so a letdown after last night’s big win isn’t too difficult to imagine either. Additionally note that LA has seen the total go under the under in five of seven already this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent which scored 110 points or more in, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -130 | 124 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:20 EST). This is a big game for both teams, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. LA has won four straight and QB Phillip Rivers so far has 26 TDs and six INTs. Overall the ground game is averaging 128.8 YPC, with Melvin Gordon leading the way (Gordon is out for this one though). The defense has been sharp as well, allowing only 19.9 PPG. Pittsburgh is out to atone for a loss last week, but overall the Steelers come in having won three straight at home. QB Ben Roethlisberger has a 24/12 TD/INT. Antonio Brown has 1,929 receiving yards and 15 TD catches. I’ll printout as well that LA is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Pittsburgh is already 3-1 ATS in this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. I’m banking on Pittsburgh bouncing back and for the Chargers to finally run out of gas in this difficult road venue. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Pelicans v. Hornets -3 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Charlotte Hornets (5:05 EST). New Orleans enters off a 106-101 setback in Miami on Friday, while Charlotte comes in off a 119-111 home loss to Utah on Friday. These teams haven’t played yet this season, but Charlotte does play with revenge here as well, as New Orleans has taken four straight in the series. The Pelicans have now lost four of their last five. They come into this game averaging 117.7 PPG and conceding 116.5. Anthony Davis leads the way with 27.8 points, 12.7 boards, 4.6 assists, 2.74 blocks and 1.53 assists per game. While New Orleans is 7-5 SU on the road, note that it’s just 4-8 ATS in those contests. Charlotte is back to .500 after its two game win streak was snapped by the Jazz, but the good news is that it still has a hold on the division lead. The Hornets average 114.7 PPG and they concede 110.4. Kemba Walker leads the nightly charge with 27.1 points and 6.2 assists per night. I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog of six points or less, while Charlotte is 8-4 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Hornets. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Vikings +6 v. Patriots | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 10 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Vikings 8* (4:25 EST). The 6-4-1 Minnesota Vikings are on the road to take on the 8-3 New England Patriots and while the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. The Vikes are averaging 24.1 PPG. QB Kirk Cousins has a sharp 22/7 TD/INT. The Pats are averaging 27.9 PPG. QB Tom Brady has a 19/7 TD/INT. These teams are evenly matched. The difference comes in the trends though, as note that Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last ten non-conference game and 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while New England is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.” Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 46.5 | 16-43 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 10 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under 49ers/Hawks 9* (4:25 EST). San Francisco comes in off a 27-9 loss at Tampa Bay and I think it’ll have difficulty producing much offense this week either. Seattle enters off a much-needed 30-27 road win over Carolina and it’ll be looking to avoid a dangerous letdown here. Overall San Francisco is averaging 20.7 PPG, while conceding 26.6. QB Nick Mullens threw for 221 yards and a TD in last week’s loss, but he also had two INTs. Seattle is averaging 147.1 rushing yards per game, which is No. 1 in the league. Look for the home side to double down on the run game this week. Overall the Hawks average 25.1 PPG and allow 22.1. I’ll point out as well that Seattle has seen the total go under in six of its last eight vs. teams with losing records, while San Francisco has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last nine after scoring ten points or less in its previous outing. This number is high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Jets v. Titans -7.5 | 22-26 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 50 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tennessee Titans 8* (4:05 EST). New York enters off a 27-13 home loss to new England, while Tennessee comes in off a 34-17 setback to the Texans on the road. Overall New York is averaging only 20.1 PPG, while conceding 25.5. QB Sam Darnold has missed the last two games with injury and he’s doubtful here. Backup Josh McCown has 276 yards and a TD last week vs. the Pats, but also a costly INT. Tennessee had won two in a row before last week’s 34-17 loss to the Titans. Overall the Titans are averaging 17.7 PPG and allowing 20.3. The Titans though are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six after two or more SU losses, while New York is just 2-6 ATS as an underdog this year and only 1-4 ATS on the road. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Browns v. Texans -6 | Top | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 116 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* AFC Game Of The Month is on the Houston Texans (1:00 EST). The 4-6-1 Cleveland Browns are at Houston to take on the 8-3 Texans on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, this one has home side “blowout” written all over it. The Browns comes in content after winning two straight. Cleveland’s been a lot better at home than on the road as well, having lost four of its last five road games. QB Baker Mayfield has 17 TDs and seven INTs. Nick Chubb leads the ground game with 663 yards and six TDs. Overall the defense concedes 25.7 PPG. The Texans come in as the hottest team in football with eight straight wins. Houston has won four straight at home. Home field advantage can not be overlooked at all as a very real deciding factor as well. Deshaun Watson has 2,807 passing yards with 20 TDs and nine INTs. I’ll point out that the Browns are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games and 0-4 ATS the last four in this series, while the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following a five games or more SU unbeaten streak. This sets up as a classic trap for the over achieving Browns. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-18 | Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 47.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 97 h 46 m | Show | |
My 9* total is on the under Colts/Jags (1:00 EST). Indianapolis has won six straight. Last week the Colts beat Miami 27-24. Indy’ QB Andrew Luck has 3,112 yards and a 32/11 TD/INT. RB Marlon Mack has 556 rushing yards and four TDs. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 29.5 PPG, but I think it’ll have a more difficult time moving the ball today in this unfriendly road venue. The Jags are desperate for a win after seven straight losses. Last week Jacksonville fell 24-21 to Buffalo. QB Blake Bortles has 2,572 passing yards and a weak 13/10 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the rushing attack with 385 yards thus far. The defense has been decent for Jacksonville, but the offense is averaging only 17.9 PPG. I’ll point out that Indianapolis has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four following two or more SU wins, while Jacksonville has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Note that Bortles is being benched in favor of Cody Kessler. With the home side clearly committed to establishing the run in an attempt to keep Luck off the field of play, look for this one to fall under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-18 | Northwestern v. Ohio State -14 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 98 h 19 m | Show | |
The third pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on Ohio State 9* (8:00 EST). Clearly this is a mismatch, so the only question remains, will the Buckeyes come in a bit complacent and take this game for granted, or will they lay the hammer down from start to finish? In my opinion, it’s going to be the second scenario. Northwestern averages only 23.7 PPG, but it allows only 134.7 rushing yards and just 238 passing yards. The Wildcats have some big wins this year vs. teams like Iowa and Purdue, but remember they also lost 39-34 at home to Akron. QB Clayton Thorson has a 14/12 TD/INT, along with another eight rushing TDs. Ohio State is not assured a spot in the Playoffs, so the only thing it can control here is a posting a resounding victory. Overall the Buckeyes rank second in the nation in offense with 544.1 YPG, while allowing 161.9 rushing yards per contest. QB Dwayne Haskins has a huge 42/7 TD/INT. I’ll point out that Ohio State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, while Northwestern is just 1-5 ATS in its last six in this series. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-18 | Fresno State +3 v. Boise State | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 98 h 55 m | Show | |
The first pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on Fresno State 8* (7:45 EST). This is the Mountain West Conference Championship game from Albertsons Stadium on Saturday night. Since the league went to a two-division format in 2013, these two teams have combined for seven championship appearances. Last year these teams met in the Championship game as well and Fresno State will indeed be playing with “revenge” after falling 17-14 in that one. The Bulldogs average 36.3 PPG and they concede 13.5. QB Marcus McMaryion had 317 yards passing and two TDs in last weeks win over San Jose State. Boise State averages 37.0 PPG and it concedes 22.3. QB Brett Rypien is averaging over 300 passing yards per game this season. I’ll point out though that the Bulldogs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 vs. teams with winning records, while the Broncos are just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 home games. These teams met at this exact venue earlier this season and it was Boise State which came out on to top 24-17. This is in fact a “double revenge” scenario. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-18 | Clemson -26 v. Pittsburgh | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 97 h 4 m | Show | |
The second pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on Clemson 8* (8:00 EST). Clearly this is a mismatch. So will the mighty Clemson Tigers keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and clobber the Pittsburgh Panthers into oblivion? I think the answer is a resounding: “yes!” The Tigers are undefeated at 12-0 and a win today in the ACC Championship game secures them a berth in the Playoffs. Overall the Tigers are out-scoring their opponents by an average of 31.7 PPG this year. Overall they average 45.7 points and concede just 14.0. QB Trevor Lawrence has a 22/4 TD/INT. Pittsburgh is averaging only 27.8 PPG, while allowing 27.8 as well. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success most nights. RB Qadree Ollison has 1,134 rushing yards and ten TDs this season. I’ll pint out as well that Pittsburgh is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Clemson is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 after two or more SU victories. I like the Tigers to dominate on both ends of the field. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-18 | Wake Forest +1 v. Richmond | 74-84 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
My 9* Late Breaking Play is on Wake Forest (7:30 EST). Wake Forest enters off a 71-64 home win over Western Carolina and I think the Demon Deacons carry that momentum over here. Richmond comes in off a 90-82 road loss to Georgetown and I think it’s primed for another letdown here as well. Wake Forest averages 76 PPG and it concedes 74.3. Brandon Childress leads the nightly charge with 17.5 points and 4.7 assists per night, while Jaylen Hoard adds 16.8 points and 8.7 boards. Richmond averages 72 PPG and it allows 75. Grant Golden leads the way with 20.3 points and 6.9 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Richmond has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors, going just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five home games and only 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, while Wake Forest is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after holding its previous opponent to 65 points or less. The Spiders are dealing with significant injuries and I believe this continues to hurt them here as well. Play on Wake Forest. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-18 | Warriors v. Pistons +5.5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Conf Crusher is on the Detroit Pistons (7:05 EST). The Warriors welcome back captain Stephen Curry to the line-up, but I think the defending champs are still going to need some time to get back on track and gain their normal chemistry. Most recently the Warriors come in off an exhausting 131-128 OT loss in Toronto, a game in which Kevin Durant went for 51 points. The surging Pistons look to take advantage after their fourth straight win, most recently over Chicago in blowout fashion. Golden State averages 116.5 PPG, while conceding 111.5. As mentioned off the top, having Curry back will clearly start to turn things around for the Warriors, but as also stated earlier, I do definitely fel that “instant chemistry” is out of the question in this one. And that’s because the Pistons are firing on all cylinders, averaging 111.8 PPG and conceding 110.7. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 25.1 points, 9.6 board and 5.1 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Golden State is just 3-7 ATS on the road this year, while Detroit is 6-2 ATS as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-18 | Nevada v. USC +5.5 | Top | 73-61 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Unranked Shocker is on USC (4:30 EST). While an outright upset is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. Nevada comes in unbeaten after getting the better of Loyola-Chicago 79-65, while USC enters off a 75-65 home win over LBSU on Wednesday. Nevada is averaging 90.1 PPG and it’s conceding 69. Caleb Martin leads the nightly charge with 21 points and 4.7 boards per game, while Jordan Carolina adds 17.7 points and 9.9 boards. The Trojans won’t be going down without a fight today. They come in on top form having won three straight. USC averages 83.3 PPG and it concedes 71.6. Bennie Boatwright leads the team with 16.8 points and 6.4 boards per game. I’ll point out as well that Nevada is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after covering five of six of its last seven ATS, while USC is 3-1 ATS in its last four at home and 18-8 ATS in its last 26 after having won three of its last four games SU. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-18 | Georgia +13.5 v. Alabama | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 97 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* SEC Championship Game Winner is on Georgia (4:00 EST). This is a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff and I think that Georgia bettors will get a small amount of “revenge” tonight. Alabama is 12-0 and it avenged its loss to the Tigers in the Iron Bowl last season with a 52-21 victory. Overall the Crimson Tide rolled up 500 yards of offense, with Tua Tagovailoa throwing for five TDs. Tagovailoa has an insane 36/2 TD/INT on the year. Defensively the Tide are strong too obviously, having not allowed an opponent to gain 300 total yards in its last six contests. Georgia won’t be going down without a fight. The Bulldogs are 11-1 and they have to win this game, or this will be the end of their season (other than the upcoming bowl of course, but a playoff spot out of the question and no SEC shot.) The Dogs though come in on top form as well, having won five straight, including a 45-21 destruction of Georgia Tech last weekend. QB Jake Fromm had three first half TD passes. Fromm has a 24/5 TD/INT. Georgia has the defense to compete today, allowing just 17.2 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as an underdog of 10.5 points or more, and 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games, while the favorite is 0-5 in the last five meetings between these teams. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but the stage is definitely set for a “nail biter.” Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-18 | Stanford -2.5 v. California | Top | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 95 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF YEAR is on Stanford (3:00 EST). Stanford enters off a momentum building 48-17 home win over Oregon State, while Cal’s also off a big victory, holding on for an upset 15-14 road victory over USC. Note that Stanford won this matchup at home last year 17-14. This is a make-up game from a couple of weeks ago because of the wildfires. Stanford’ QB KJ Costello had 342 yards with four TD’s and an INT in its latest win over the Beavers. The Cardinal are averaging 28.3 PPG and they’re allowing 23.0. Cal is averaging only 22.7 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by allowing just 21.1 PPG. The Bears’ defense has looked sharp of late, but I think the unit gets tested in a big way here against Costello and company. I’ll point out as well that Cal is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five home games and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight after posting less than 275 total yards in its previous game, while Stanford is a solid 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 after posting more than 40 points in its previous game. I have a hard time seeing the Bears’ offense keeping pace down the stretch. With an extra week off to prepare, I like Costello to find a way to get the job done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-18 | Texas +7.5 v. Oklahoma | 27-39 | Loss | -105 | 90 h 17 m | Show | |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on Texas (12:00 EST). It’s the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners in the Big 12 Championship Game from AT&T Stadium in Texas. Texas beat Kansas last weekend to post its position in this contest. QB Sam Ehlinger wasn’t at his best last week, going for 314 yards, two TDs and no INTs. Over the Longhorns have been sharp defensively of late though, allowing only 20.3 PPG over their last three. Texas though is the No. 1 offense in the country, averaging 50.2 PPG. The Sooners are averaging 53.2 PPG over their last four games, but they’ve also conceded 47.3 in that span as well. Overall though Oklahoma is averaging 31.7 PPG this year and allowing 25.2. QB Kyler Murray had 364 yards, three TDs and one INT last weekend. I’ll point out though that Oklahoma is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 40 or more points in its previous outing, while Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games and 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 vs. teams with winning records. The Longhorns are 6-0 ATS the last six in this series. Expect all of these strong trends to continue on Saturday afternoon. Play on Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-18 | Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo | Top | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 107 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* MAC Championship WINNER is on Northern Illinois. Buffalo went 10-2 in the regular season and 7-1 in MAC action, while NIU went 7-5 with a 6-2 record in MAC conference play. If recent history is any precedence though, then NIU has to be liking its chances today, because when these teams met last year, it was the Huskies that posted the 14-13 road win. The Bulls averaged 35.2 PPG this year and they conceded 24.2. In the Bulls regular season finale they ran for 332 rushing yards in a 44-14 road win over Bowling Green. QB Tyree Jackson finished with a 25/11 TD/INT. The NIU Huskies averaged only 19.9 PPG, while limiting opponents to 20.9 PPG. The offense revolves around RB Tre Harbison, who had 100 rushing yards in three out of his last four games. I’ll point out as well that NIU is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while Buffalo is just 1-3 ATS in its last four games played on a neutral field. The Huskies took the foot off the gas a little early to end the regular season, but NIU has the defense to keep it in this one. I’m expecting an all out war. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-18 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). After back-to-back losses, the Lakers are the “hungrier” team tonight. Indiana on the other hand comes in contented after back-to-back road wins, including a 109-104 victory in Phoenix on Tuesday. But Pacers star Victor Oladipo is sitting this one out with injury and I believe The King and company get back on track and take advantage. Overall Indiana is averaging 106.5 PPG and it’s allowing 102.2. Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 21.4 points and 6.6 boards per game, but as mentioned off the top, he’s sitting this one out. The Lakers are averaging 112.8 PPG and they’re conceding 112.9. James leads the way with 27.6 points, 7.9 boards and 6.7 assists per night. I’ll point out though that Indiana has struggled against the better offensive teams in the league so far this season, going just 5-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per night. And note that the Lakers are a solid 4-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-18 | Spurs +4.5 v. Wolves | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:05 EST). The Spurs enter off a 108-107 road win over Chicago on Monday, while the Wolves held on for a 102-95 road victory over the Cavs on Monday. If recent history is any precedence, then the Spurs have to be liking their chance today as they’ve taken two straight in the series, including a 112-108 home victory in the first meeting back on October 17th. San Antonio is averaging 109.6 PPG and it’s allowing 110.1. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 24.8 points and 6.3 assists per night. Minnesota is averaging 109 PPG and it’s allowing 111.2. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 20.8 points and 12.2 boards per game. I’ll point out thought that Wolves are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while the Spurs are already 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season. After three straight wins and six in their last eight, this sets up as natural letdown spot for the home side in my opinion. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-18 | San Diego +6 v. Ole Miss | 86-93 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
The second pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on San Diego (8*) 7:30 EST. San Diego enters off a 76-58 home win over Jackson State, while Ole Miss was smashed 71-57 to Cincinnati in the title game of the Emerald Coast Classic. The Toreros come in under the radar here in my opinion after three straight wins. San Diego averages 77.2 PPG and it concedes only 59.7. Isaiah Piniero leads the way with 22 points and 8.7 boards per game. Ole iss is averaging 75.2 PPG and it’s conceding 68.6. Breein Tyree leads the nightly charge with 16.6 PPG. I’ll point out though that the Rebels are a terrible 2-8 ATS in their last ten following an ATS loss, while the Toreros are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference contests. I think San Diego has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright, but in the end I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-18 | Syracuse v. Ohio State -5.5 | Top | 72-62 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Ohio State (10*) 7:15 EST. Syracuse enters off a 77-56 win at home over Colgate, while Ohio State demolished Cleveland State 89-62 at home in its latest action. The Orange have plenty of talent, but I have a hard time seeing the visitors matching pace down the stretch. Syracuse averages 73.6 PPG and it concedes 64.6. Tyus Battle leads the nightly charge with 17.6 PPG. Ohio Sate averages 81.3 PPG and it concedes only 58.3. That’s tied for 15th in the country. Kaleb Wesson leads the way with 14.7 points and 5.8 boards per game. I’ll point out that Syracuse has struggled mightily in this spot as well for bettors for quite some time, going 0-9 ATS in its last nine following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Buckeyes depth on both ends of the floor is the difference maker here. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-18 | Bradley -4 v. IUPU-Indianapolis | 73-85 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
The pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on Bradley (8*) 7:00 EST. Bradley beat IUPUI last year and I think it’ll get the job done this season as well. The Braves are 6-1, including wins over SMU and Penn State in Mexico to win the Cancun Classic. After that they won two straight, including an 86-70 victory over Chicago State on Saturday. Darrell Brown had 16 points in the one, while Elijah Childs added 12 points and 11 boards. Bradley has been sharp defensively as well, holding opponents to just 62.7 PPG on 38.5 percent shooting. IUPUI is 4-2 and its off to its best start in nine years. The Jaguars have won two straight, most recently an 80-69 victory over Grambling on Saturday. Ahmed Ismail had 16 points and ten boards. I’ll point out though that IUPUI is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a two games or more unbeaten streak, while Bradley is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 as s road fav between 0.5 and 6.5 points. This is a bad matchup for IUPUI. Look for Bradley to pull away down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-18 | Lakers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 85-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Nuggets (9:05 EST). I like the Nuggets to avenge a 121-114 road loss in LA back on October 25th. LA enters off a poor 108-104 home loss to Orlando, while Denver comes in off a confidence building 105-98 road win in Oklahoma City on Saturday. LA had won seven of eight before Sunday’s loss. LeBron James was a bright spot in the setback, scoring 24 points and dishing out seven assists. Overall the Lakers are averaging 114.2 PPG and conceding 112.7. Denver averages 109.9 PPG and it concedes 103.2. Big man Nikola Jokic scores 16.6 points per game average. I’ll point out though that Denver is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 following an ATS victory, while LA is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest. The Nuggets are especially though at home, and they play with revenge here. I like Denver to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-18 | Temple v. Missouri -3 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Missouri (9:00 EST). Temple comes in off a 76-59 win over Cal and I think it stumbles in this difficult non-conference road venue. The Tigers on the other hand come in as the “hungrier” team after they fell 82-67 to K-State. Temple averages 74.5 PPG and it concedes 65.7. Quinton Rose had 32 points in the win over the Golden Bears. Missouri is averaging 63.6 PPG, but it’s allowing just 65.6. The Tigers numbers are skewed though in my opinion to open the season, due to the level of the competition. I’ll point out as well that Temple is a poor 6-9 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 60 points or less, while Missouri is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after allowing 80 points or more. I think the hungrier team prevails and I believe the Owls finally have a letdown here. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-18 | NC State +8 v. Wisconsin | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Underdog Shocker is on NC State (9:00 EST). NC State enters off a 78-74 home win over Mercer, while the Badgers enter off a poor 53-46 loss to Virginia. These teams haven’t played each other since 2010 and in my opinion, I believe their a little more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers would like us to think. NC State can score, and it’s the reason why I like the Wolfpack here. NC State averages 90.8 PPG, and it allows only 57.8. Torin Dorn had 19 points and nine boards in the latest win. Off their first loss of the year, I think the Badgers are susceptible for another letdown here as well, Wisconsin averages 74 PPG and it concedes 57.8. Additionally note that NC State is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games. NC State has nothing to lose here except its perfect record (6-0.) The Wolfpack may not win this one outright, but they have the defense and offense to keep it competitive. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-18 | Titans +4 v. Texans | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Showdown is on the Tennessee Titans (8:15 EST). Clearly this is a big game. The Titans beat the Texans 20-17 at home in Week 2. Houston comes into this one as one of the hottest teams in the league now though, having won seven straight. The Titans had a nice two game win streak going, including a dominant victory over the Patriots, but they’d come crashing back down to Earth last weekend against a surging Colts team. The Texans hold a two-game lead in the division over the Titans and Colts, so as mentioned off the top, clearly this is a “big” game for both teams. Overall, they’re very evenly matched. Great QB’s with above average receiving. Also great ground games. The defense and special teams are also all above average. The oddsmakers also agree with us that these teams are evenly matched with this smaller spread. So where’s the advantage? This is essentially a “do or die” game for Tennessee, much like it was when it faced New England three weeks ago. The Titans performed at their very best when everything was on the line, and I’m expecting a similar thing here as well. Houston comes in tired after playing at such a high level and I think the outright upset isn’t out of the question here. Note that Tennessee is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 vs. the division and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston is already just 1-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against divisional foes. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-18 | Rockets v. Wizards +4 | Top | 131-135 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Wizards (7:05 EST). The Rockets have been terrible of late and I think they’re going to stumble here in the Nation’s capital as well. Houston enters off a 117-108 road loss to the Cavs, it’s second straight setback. The Rockets are clearly going to be “hungry” here, but Washington enters even hungrier. The Wizards broke a three-game slide with a 124-114 home win over New Orleans and I believe they carry that positive momentum over here as well. Houston is averaging 106.9 PPG and it’s conceding 107.9. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. The Rockets are led by James Harden with 30 points, 5.1 boards and 7.9 assists per game. Washington is averaging 112.2 PPG and it’s conceding 117.2. That’s not a recipe for success either, but as stated above, I think the Wizards keep the foot on the gas after the slow start to the season and following their big win over the Pelicans. Additionally note Houston is just 1-5 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last nine after scoring 120 points or more in a victory in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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