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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-22-18 | Red Sox -140 v. A's | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -140 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Red Sox (4:05 EST). Despite looking decent of late, I believe that A’s starting pitcher Daniel Mengden is getting entirely too much respect in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to David Price (2-1, 2.25 ERA) who gave up one earned run off three hits while walking four and striking out six over five innings in a win over the Angels on Tuesday. Mengden (2-2, 4.50) stymied the White Sox by allowing one run with six K’s over eight innings in the victory on Monday. Note though that it was the first time that he’d last past the sixth frame this season. I’ll point out as well that Boston is an unreal 15-2 (+12.8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Oakland is just 1-6 (-5.4 units) against southpaws. I think Price will at the very least match Mengden inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the hard-hitting visiting side. Lay the price on Price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-18 | Penguins v. Flyers +145 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Flyers (3:05 EST). I believe that the “do or die” Flyers offer much better than just a “punchers chance” in Game 6 on home ice. The Penguins come in averaging 3.3 GPG, led by Sidney Crosby with five goals so far in the Playoffs. Pittsburgh has to score a lot of goals, because it concedes a lot as well, so far 3.0 per night. Matt Murray has been terrible for the most part between the pipes in the postseason. The Flyers average 3.0 GPG and Sean Couturier leads the way in the playoffs with two thus far, while Jakub Voracek has three assists. Brian Elliot and Petr Mrazek have so far been poor overall in the playoffs as well. The City of Philadelphia has gotten used to winning lately and the Flyers come home filled with confidence. I think that wave of emotion will be the difference maker for Philadelphia tonight. Play on the Flyers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -5 | 102-104 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Bucks (1:05 EST). I have taken Milwaukee through the first three games of this series and I am obviously just 1-2. Game 3 was a decisive victory finally for the Bucks though and suffice it to say, I look for the team to carry that momentum over here. After back-to-back duds, the Bucks finally exploded on both ends of the court in Game 3’s decisive 116-92 result. It wasn’t even close as the Celtics would get no closer than 14 over the final three quarters. In the end Boston shot 40 percent from the floor and went just eight of 24 from range. Al Horford was a bright spot in the losing cause with 16 points, while Greg Monroe added 15 points and 12 boards. Milwaukee played like a desperate team from start to finish in Game 3 and I believe Giannis Antetokounmpo and company can smell the blood in the water. Antetokounmpo had 19 points, five boards, six assists, two steals and two blocks, while Khris Middleton had 23 points, eight boards and seven assists. The Bucks got big time production from their secondary weapons though which was key, as Eric Bledsoe and Jabari Parker each poured in 17 points. Note as well that Boston is just 19-23 ATS in its last 42 after allowing 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after scoring 115 points or more. The Celtics caught the Bucks napping in Game’s 1 and 2, but Boston came back down to Earth in Game 3. I expect the home side to once again play with a fierce passion and to tie this series up. Lay the points, play on the Bucks. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-18 | Mariners -148 v. Rangers | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (8:05 EST). Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (1-1, 4.57 ERA), who comes in off his best start of the season, holding the hard-hitting Astros to just one run off three hits with three walks and seven K’s over six innings in the eventual victory. Since getting rocked for six runs in his season debut, Paxton has been on fire with a 24/5 K/W and 2.65 ERA since. Note that Paxton was particularly effective in this spot last year, going 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the venerable Bartolo Colon (0-0, 1.45), who has defied the odds once again and looked great in his limited time thus far, giving up one run off one hit and one walk over 7.2 innings of work. In my opinion, imminent regression is imminent for Colon though, who was a horrible 3-8 with a 6.81 ERA on the road last season. I’ll point out as well that Seattle is already 5-3 (+2.7 units) in all night games, while Texas is 5-8 (-1.1 units) in the same position. In my opinion, this line could easily be a lot bigger. Great value, play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-18 | Rockets v. Wolves +5 | Top | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (7:35 EST). It’s essentially do-or-die for the Wolves, who will be risking life and limb to try and avoid an 0-3 hole. Chris Paul exploded for 27 points in Game 2, after being held to just 11 in Game 1. James Harden though was just 2 of 18 from the floor and finished with 12 points. The Wolves were dead cold shooting over the first two games. Nemanja Bjelica would end up coming off the bench to lead all scorers in Game 2 with 16 points. But with the shift in venue, I’m expecting Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler to have a much better effort this evening. The duo had a great overall campaign, but they combined for just 16 points in Game 2. I’ll point out as well that Houston has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors all year, going just 18-20 ATS after a win by ten points or more and just 5-9 ATS when playing with two days rest. Conversely this is a spot in which the Wolves have excelled in, going 4-1 ATS in their last five after scoring 85 points or less. With their season essentially on the line, I look for the hungry Wolves to at the very least take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-18 | Twins v. Rays -116 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (6:10 EST). I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe.. The visitors turn to Kyle Gibson (1-0, 3.68 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off seven hits and four walks over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against Houston on Wednesday. After a great opener, Gibson has struggled in back-to-back outings, failing to make it out of the fifth frame in either. The home side counters with Blake Snell (2-1, 2.95), who comes in off a gem against Tampa Bay on Monday, giving up one earned run off five hits over 6.1 innings while striking out nine and walking none in the eventual 8-4 victory. Snell comes in off back-to-back solid outings, giving up two earned runs to go along with 19 K’s over 12. innings of work in that span. Overall Snell has 26 K’s over his 21.1 frames this season. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that the oddsmakers have made a major mistake. In my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Tampa Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-18 | Devils v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the under Devils/Lightning (3:05 EST). When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number. Tampa comes in off a hard-fought 3-1 win in Game 4 to grab a 3-1 series lead and in my opinion, everything points to a similar final combined score here as well. New Jersey comes in having gone 21-22 on the road, averaging 2.98 GPG and conceding 3.19 in those contests. Corey Schneider is 6-11 with a 3.25 GAA on the road, but he has gone 5-6 in 12 career games against Tampa Bay with a 2.94 GAA. Keith Kinkaid is 14-9 with a 2.97 GAA on the road and 2-4 with 3.33 GAA lifetime against the Bolts. Tampa Bay is 31-12 at home so far this year, averaging 3.60 GPG in those contests and conceding 2.91. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly stopped 27 of 28 shots last time out to move to 3-1 with a 2.26 GAA in the playoffs thus far. Note that he was 26-9 with a 2.84 GAA at home this season. I’ll point out as well that New Jersey has in fact seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing, while TB has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after a win by two goals or more. I believe the conditions are finally right for a tight-checking, lower-scoring goaltenders battle. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-18 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 215.5 | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is the UNDER 76ers/Heat (2:35 EST). So far I’m 2-1 in this series, taking the 76ers over the first three games thus far. It’s going to be an all out war in Game 4, as Miami looks to control the pace of this one. Suffice it to say, when the smoke clears at the end, I’m expecting this total to sneak below the posted number. I said Joel Embiid would be a difference maker in Game 3 and the big man would not disappoint, logging 30 minutes and going for 23 points, seven boards, four assists and three blocks. Philadelphia shot a blistering 50 percent from the floor, including an unreal 52.9 percent from range. Suffice it to say again, I am not expecting the 76ers to match those extremely efficient numbers against a Heat side which will be doubling down with its defensive effort. I also predicted that Dwayne Wade would have a major letdown in Game 3 after his historic performance in Game 2 which saw him score 28 points, grab seven boards, three assists and two steals. Wade would indeed have a letdown in Game 3, finishing with eight points, five assists, two boards, one steal, one block and four turnovers. Goran Dragic was a bright spot for Miami in a losing cause with 23 points. Miami was competitive in the first half of Game 3, but came out completely flat in the second. The Heat though will be risking life and limb today to try and even things up and I expect a full four quarter effort. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten after a win by ten points or more, while Miami has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of 15 this year already when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-18 | Blue Jays +139 v. Yankees | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominators is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST). Last year Marcus Stroman (0-1, 7.98 ERA) was 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA, but so far he’s struggled. Suffice it to say, I think he starts to get back on track here. Stroman most recently gave up four earned runs over five innings, while also striking out five in a no-decision against the hard-hitting Indians on Friday. Stroman’s last start was skipped over due to postponement. I’ll point out that Stroman was 6-3 with a 3.72 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 4.70) who gave up three earned runs off five hits while striking out four and walking none in a victory over the Tigers on Friday. Note that it was Montgomery’s first quality outing of the year. Previous to that he’d given up ten hits to the Orioles. Despite his 1-0 record Montgomery owns a very hittable 4.70 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. I’ll point out as well that Toronto is 5-2 (+2.6 units) already this season against southpaws, while New York is just 5-6 (-3.8 units) against right-handed starters. I’m banking on Stroman outlasting his counterpart and that’s going to be more than enough in my opinion for the visitors to score the comfortable upset. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-18 | Nationals v. Dodgers -131 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -131 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST). As good as Max Scherzer has looked at times this year and as strong as the Nationals’ line-up is, I still believe the value is on Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw. Scherzer (3-1, 1.33 ERA) won both his starts last week. Scherzer now leagues the lead in K’s with 38. Kershaw (1-2, 1.73) has looked sharp to open the season despite his win/loss record, positing a tiny 0.88 WHIP and 10.3 K/W through 26 innings of work. I’ll point out as well that Washington is already 3-6 (-7 units) this year following a loss, while LA is 5-2 (+2.2 units) following a victory. The late West Coast start will be difficult for the visitors and I fully expect Kershaw to take advantage. All things considered, a great price on a great and undervalued hurler. Lay it, play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-18 | Giants v. Angels -134 | 8-1 | Loss | -134 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST). Both teams come in off losses, but for a number of different reasons I believe this one favors the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Samardzija (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who will make his season debut today after starting the year off on the DL with a strained pectoral. Samardzija looked horrible in his final rehab appearance, giving up six runs over 2.2 innings. The Angels counter with Andrew Heaney (0-0, 5.40), who gave up four runs (three earned) off seven hits while walking one and striking out seven in a no-decision against the Royals on Friday. Neither starter instills much confidence, but note that San Francisco is just 4-6 (-1.2 units) in all night games this year and only 5-7 (-1.4 units) against southpaws, while LA is 9-4 (+4 units) in all night games and 10-4 (+5.9 units) against right-handed starters. I like Heaney to out duel his still yet untested veteran counterpart and for the hard-hitting Angels to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. Lay the price, play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 92-116 | Win | 100 | 36 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Milwaukee Bucks (9:35 EST). With their backs agains the Wall, I look for the desperate 0-2 Bucks to rally and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. And after taking a 2-0 lead at home and without star Kyrie Irving in the line-up, I believe the Celtics have a predictable letdown here. Boston took Game 1, 108-102, before than winning 106-102 in Game 2. The Celtics come into this one without the services of Irving. Also Gordon Hayward (after the first five minutes of the season) and Marcus Smart is also gone with surgery to his hand. Somehow though Boston continues to defy the odds and find ways to win. Jaylen Brown led the way last time out with 30 points. It’s now or never for Milwaukee though. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way last time out with 30 points nine boards and eight assists, while Khris Middleton added 25 points. I’ll point out that Boston is just 4-5 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Milwaukee is 5-2 ATS this season after playing three or more consecutive road games and 10-5 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. Desperation breeds motivation and winning leads to complacency. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bucks. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-18 | Cubs v. Rockies -103 | 16-5 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 3.71 ERA) who gave up two earned runs over six innings of work in an unfortunate loss to the Pirates on Thursday. Note that Hendricks has now given up four home runs over his first three starts, which clearly doesn’t bode well on the road at Coors tonight. The home side counters with Jon Gray (1-3, 6.23) who gave up five runs off eight hits while striking out six over 5.2 innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Nationals on Saturday. There was some room to read between the lines in Gray’s performance though, who allowed just one run over five innings. I’ll point out though that Chicago is just 4-6 (-5.4 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Colorado is 7-4 (+4.7 units) in the same position (also 5-3, +1.9 units following a loss.) I’m banking on Gray bouncing back here and I believe Hendricks’ issues with “the long ball” once again come back to haunt him in this unfriendly pitching environment. Play on the Rockies. Good luck..Larry |
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04-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards -1.5 | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 31 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Wizards (8:05 EST). With their backs against the Wall, I like the Wizards to finally respond here. And with the shift in venue, I believe the Raptors suffer a letdown finally in Game 3. Toronto took Game 1, 114-106 and Game 2, 130-119. The Raptors come in averaging 111.7 PPG and conceding 103.9. Kyle Lowry had 13 points and 12 assists in the latest victory, while DeMar DeRozan added 17 points, after going for 37 in Game 1. Washington averages 106.6 PPG and it condos 106. Bradley Beal had 19 points in Game 1, but just eight in Game 2. Star John Wall was a bright spot in the losing cause last time out with 29 points. I’ll point out though that Toronto is just 2-4 ATS in its last six when leading in a playoff series, while Washington is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 after three or more consecutive SU losses. No need to overthink/overanalyze this one. It’s do-or-die for the Wizards essentially this evening and I believe that the desperation in which they play with will help them bounce back in this series and cover the small spread. Lay the points, play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-18 | Warriors v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 110-97 | Loss | -107 | 36 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:35 EST). I played on the Warriors over the first two games of this series, but I feel that the Spurs have more than just a “punchers chance” in Game 3. If you asked me if I thought the Spurs could win a game in this series without Kawhi Leonard and the Warriors having Stephen Curry in the line-up, I’d likely have said no. If you asked me before the series if I thought the Spurs could win a game without Kawhi Leonard in their line-up and with the Warriors without Curry, I’d likely have said yes. And that’s absolutely the way I feel right now as well. And if the Spurs were ever to get back into this series and steal the momentum, clearly Game 3 is the time to step up and do it. The Warriors were anything but perfect down the stretch of the regular season and they’re definitely not susceptible to a letdown. Leonard has been deemed out for the remainder of the playoffs and his status is uncertain moving forward, but the veteran core and remaining players, including LaMarcus Aldridge will be risking life and limb tonight to try and pull off the upset. And I think combined with Golden State’s complacency, that that home side does in fact have a very real shot at pulling off the outright upset. Note as well that Golden State is just 15-21 ATS this year after a win by ten points or more and only 17-20 ATS after scoring 115 points or more, while San Antonio is 26-14 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU losses. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Spurs. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-18 | Blazers +3 v. Pelicans | 102-119 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Portland Trailblazers (9:05 EST). I’ve played the Pelicans through the first two games of this series, but with their backs against the wall, I look for Damian Lillard and the desperate Blazers to put forth their best effort of the series and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Pelicans are getting monster production from Anthony Davis. Which was fully expected. New Orleans though has also gotten a lot from veteran guard Rajon Rondo and from swingman Jrue Holliday. The same though can’t be said of Portland’s superstars Lillard and CJ McCollum, who to this point have struggled. Both will be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this one though and as mentioned off the top, I believe they have much more than just a “punchers chance” in taking this it outright. The numbers support us as well, as note that Portland is 22-16 ATS on the road this year and 7-4 ATS after paling three consecutive home games, while New Orleans is just 19-21 ATS at home. I’m not counting out Lillard quite yet. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Blazers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-18 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on the under Bruins/Leafs (7:05 EST). It’s the all important Game 4. Boston wants to take a strangle-hold on the series before heading home, while the Leafs will be leaving everything on the ice in an attempt to even it up. Fatigue sets in at this point and in my opinion, everything points to a classic lower-scoring under between these two hungry clubs. Boston goaltender Tuukka Rask is 2-1 with a 2.71 GAA and .911 save percentage thus far. Note that he’s still 16-7-2 with a 2.14 GAA lifetime against the Leafs. Toronto net minder Frederik Andersen is now 20-14 with a 2.53 GAA lifetime in the postseason and 10-1-0 with a 2.09 GAA lifetime against the Bruins. I’ll point out as well that Boston has seen the total go under the number in 16 of 23 this year after allowing four goals or more, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after scoring four goals or more in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-18 | 76ers -2 v. Heat | 128-108 | Win | 100 | 34 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia 76ers (7:05 EST). After stomping the Heat in Game 1, Miami would bounce back with a win over Philadelphia in Game 2 behind a vintage performance from veteran guard Dwayne Wade. Wade’s performance was amazing, but suffice it to say, I’m not expecting lightning to strike twice in a row for Miami. In fact, I think it’s pretty safe to predict that Wade will be a “no-show” (comparatively anyways), after his heroic Game 2 effort. Wade went on to post 28 points off the bench. There’s no reason not to think that the incredibly deep 76ers won’t be able to bounce back here. And the entire dynamic of the series is about to take another major shift with the expected return of Philadelphia big man Joel Embiid. Ben Simmons was a bright spot in a losing cause for Philadelphia with 24 points, nine boards and eight assists. Normally “rock steady” with their production, the group of Dario Saric, Robert Covington, Marco Belinelli and JJ Redick went a combined 7 of 34 from behind the arc. And suffice it to say, I don’t expect that talented group to struggle in back-to-back games. Miami also got a big game from Goran Dragic last time out with 20 points, four boards and three assists. The Heat looked great in that victory, but as I pointed out that with the return of Embiid, I believe the home side is going to be in trouble tonight. I’ll point out as well that the 76ers are 10-4 ATS already this year when playing with two days rest, while Miami is just 4-10 ATS in the same position (also only 2-12 ATS following a win by ten points or more.) Embiid is a difference maker. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-18 | Pirates v. Phillies -110 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* National League GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). Pittsburgh comes to town off a very satisfying 10-2 win at home over Colorado yesterday afternoon and I believe it’ll stumble on the road against this tough opponent. The home side turns to ace Jake Arrieta (1-0, 3.38 ERA), who picked up his first victory of the year against the the Rays on Saturday, giving up three runs off seven hits and two walks over 6.2 innings while striking out just one. The visitors counter with Jameson Taillon, who gave up four hits while going six scoreless against the light-hitting Marlins on Saturday. It was Taillon’s second scoreless effort in his first three starts and suffice it to say, I believe regression is imminent. Note that Taillon was just 4-6 with a 5.16 ERA in all night games last year. Also note that Pittsburgh is just 4-6 (-3.4 units) in all night games itself this season, while Philadelphia is 8-3 (+4.9 units) in the same position. I like Arrieta to get the better of his over achieving counterpart. Play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-18 | Orioles v. Tigers +109 | 8-13 | Win | 109 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST). I had a play on Detroit yesterday and it would hold on for the 6-5 victory. While neither of these starters instills much confidence, I believe the home side has the advantage again. The Orioles turn to the volatile Alex Cobb (0-1, 17.18 ERA), who was rocked in his season debut against the Red Sox on Saturday, giving up eight runs off ten hits over just 3.2 innings of work. Cobb owns a lifetime 3.50 ERA in the big leagues, but clearly the veteran hasn’t shaken off the rust at this point. The home side counters with the equally as erratic Jordan Zimmermann (0-0, 8.18), whose last start was cut short because of a come-backer to the face. Previous to that the veteran gave up four earned runs off six hits while striking out eight and walking one in a decent no-decision. For arguments sakes, lets call these starters a “wash.” Baltimore has struggled with offensive consistency though, especially in this spot by going just 2-6 (-3.6 units) in all “day” games. Conversely the Tigers have done quite well in this position by going 5-3 (+2.6 units) in all daytime contests already. I like Detroit to build off yesterday’s offensive performance and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-18 | Ducks +160 v. Sharks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:30 EST). I’ve stayed way from this series until now, but I’m ready to pull the trigger on a big play on the 0-3 Ducks. With its back against the wall, I look for Anaheim to prolong this series at least one more game. Anaheim will be looking to atone for the 8-1 drubbing it endured in Game 3. The Ducks would amazingly post a double-digit advantage in shots on goal in the setback. The Ducks were done in by 26 penalty minutes. Anaheim starting goaltender John Gibson was started all three games so far, but he was pulled early in the rout. Gibson will be back in net with a chip on his shoulder and something to prove this evening. San Jose had ten less shot attempts in Game 3, but it still pulled off the major blowout. I don’t think the Ducks are going to get swept though. Note that Anaheim is 6-2 (+5.3 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses and still 27-16 (+10.6 units) in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while San Jose is just 18-21 (-9.6 units) in its last 39 after a three game unbeaten streak. The Ducks dig deep and take this series back home for at least one more. Play on Anaheim. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-18 | Astros -155 v. Mariners | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:10 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.29 ERA), who earned a no-decision against the Rangers on Friday despite allowing just two runs off three hits and a walk over six innings while also posting a career-high 14 K’s. Cole has posted three-straight double-digit strikeout games to begin the year and he enters this one sporting an elite 36/4 K/W through 21 innings thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Mike Leake (2-0, 3.50) who gave up three runs off seven hits and two walks over six frames in a no-decision against the A’s on Friday. Note that the veteran was just 8-9 with a 4.97 ERA in all night games last year. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, “recent form” is the best indicator we have. Leake has been decent, but Cole has arguably been the hottest pitcher in the entire league. I’m banking on Cole’s momentum getting carried over here in another dominant effort. Lay the price, play on the Astros. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -160 | 4-3 | Loss | -160 | 30 h 6 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). I feel that Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Stratton (1-1, 2.60 ERA), who went seven scoreless against the Padres on Thursday, giving up one hit and walking three. It’s hard to completely judge where Stratton is after three straight strong starts, especially considering he was 2-3 with a 4.65 ERA in all “night” games a year ago. Ray (2-0, 5.74) most recently gave up three runs off five hits and three walks with six strikeouts over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against the Giants on Wednesday. Ray was 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA last year and he was particularly effective in all night games by going 12-4 with a 2.52 ERA. I’ll point out as well that San Francisco is just 3-5 (-1.6 units) in all night games this season, while Arizona is 8-2 (+6.9 units) in the same position. Ray has gotten progressively better with each start so far this year and I expect that trend to carry over here. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-18 | Wolves +10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 82-102 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 38 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (9:35 EST). I am making a play on three teams which lost their respective Game 1 Opening Round contests and the third is on the Minnesota Timberwolves. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I absolutely believe that the hungry Wolves will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Minnesota would fall 104-101 in Game 1 and I believe all signs once again point to a very competitive battle. This is also a big time “revenge” game for the Wolves, as the Rockets have taken six straight in the series. The Wolves shot 43.8 percent from the floor and went just eight of 23 from range. Andrew Wiggins was a bright spot in the losing cause with 18 points and six boards. Houston has been touted by many as the team to beat in these Playoffs, but Game 1 was far from a dominating performance. If it wasn’t for James Harden, the Rockets would have lost. Harden shouldered the load once again with 44 points and eight assists. Chris Paul was the only other player in double figures with 14. Note that the Wolves are 6-2 ATS in their last eight in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Houston is just 4-9 ATS when laying on two days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-18 | Jazz +4 v. Thunder | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 57 h 8 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Utah Jazz (8:05 EST). I am making a play on three teams which lost their Game 1 match ups in the Opening round of the playoffs and the second is on the Utah Jazz. I had a play on the Jazz in Game 1 and while they’d come up short in that one, I think the visitors will be able to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Utah would go on to drop Game 1, 116-108. To say this is a “revenge” game would be an understatement, as OKC took three of four in the regular season as well. The Jazz shot 47 percent form the floor, but they were out rebounded 46-42. Donovan Mitchell led the way with 27 points and ten boards. It was a rare “off night” on the defensive end for Utah, which comes into Game 2 still ranked second in the league in conceding 99.8 points per night. OKC shot 48.2 percent from the floor, led by 36 points from Paul George. Russell Westbrook would add 29 points and 13 boards. The Thunder come in averring 107.9 PPG and conceding 104.4. Despite the Game 1 victory though, I’ll point out that the Thunder are still a terrible 16-24 ATS at home this season. I’ll also point out that Utah is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after allowing 115 points or more. I like Utah’s defense to get back on track here and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-18 | Phillies v. Braves -110 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). I think that the home field advantage will prove to be the difference once this one is all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (1-1, 3.52 ERA), who gave up one earned run off four hits over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Rays on Friday. Velasquez was crushed in his season debut, but he’s since settled down with back-to-back gems. I’m not convinced though that Velasquez has taken the next step at this point. Note that the right-hander was 2-7 with a 5.13 ERA last year, including only 2-5 with a 5.51 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Brandon McCarthy (2-0, 3.31), whose last start was skipped over because of postponement. McCarthy injured his non-throwing shoulder in his previous outing, but had gone five innings and gave up one earned run and posted three K’s in his time on the mound. McCarthy has been given the green light this evening and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to carry his momentum over here. I think Velasquez is getting far too much respect in this matchup. Great value, play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -8 | 97-100 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 8 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:05 EST). I’m making a play on three teams which lost Game 1 of their opening round series. The first is on the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Pacers come in content after accomplishing the 98-80 rout of the Cavs on Sunday. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think, as Indiana would also take three of four in the regular season as well. Indiana shot 45.6 percent and 11 of 28 from range. The Pacers were edged 44-42 on the boards though. Victor Oladipo had a monster game with 32 points, six boards, four assists and four steals, while Myles Turner added 16 points and eight boards. Cleveland shot an even worse 38.5 percent from the floor and went just 8 of 34 from range. LeBron James was the lone standout with 24 points, ten boards and 12 assists. I’ll point out though that Indiana is a disastrous 6-14 ATS this year following a win by ten points or more, while Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last six when trailing in a playoff series. I think a highly motivated James and company finally break “the Pacers curse” with a complete game and I look for them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable SU/ATS victory. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-18 | Orioles v. Tigers +110 | 5-6 | Win | 110 | 22 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (1-1, 6.60 ERA), who comes in off a win against Toronto on Wednesday, giving up three runs off six hits with three walks over six innings. It was the first time in three tries that Gausman lasted until the sixth frame. It was a step in the right direction for Gausman, but note that he was just 7-7 with a 4.75 ERA on the road last year and only 2-5 with a 5.71 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with Matt Boyd (0-1, 1.38 ERA), who earned his way into the starting rotation after a strong spring performance. Boyd’s last start was skipped over because of postponement, but previous to that he pitched well in a no-decision, giving up one run over seven innings while striking out four and walking one against the Indians. Boyd has now allowed just two earned runs over 13 innings of work this year. I’m not convinced that Gausman has turned the corner after one decent start. Boyd however has been sharp now for well over a month and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. Recent form suggests that Boyd is the correct call here. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-102 | Win | 100 | 37 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the New Orleans Pelicans (10:35 EST). My Opening Night LEGEND play was the Pelicans and I’m “back on the horse” again in Game 2. While I wouldn’t be completely surprised by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, because in my opinion this one has the feeling of whichever team has its hands on the ball last is likely going to come out on top. New Orleans shot 47.7 percent in Game 1, getting 35 points and 14 boards from Anthony Davis. I told you to keep your eyes on Rajon Rondo in Game 1 and the veteran guard would not disappoint, scoring six points, eight boards and 17 assists. Jrue Holiday and Nikola Mirotic also played a big role in the upset. New Orleans comes in averaging 111.7 PPG and conceding 110.4. Portland averages 105.6 points and it concedes 103. Damian Lillard had 18 points, going 6 of 23 from the floor. CJ McCollum also struggled, posting 19 points on 7 of 18 shooting. The Pelicans were able to slow down Lillard and McCollum and Game 1 and I anticipate another blanketing defensive performance this time around as well from the visitors. The Blazers though struggled in slowing down Davis, and his role players continue to get the job done as well. As mentioned off the top, while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end be grabbing the points in what I expect to be a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Play on New Orleans. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings -121 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -121 | 36 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* NHL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the LA Kings (7:35 EST). It’s the most important game of the year for the Kings, who come into Game 4 in a 3-0 hole. Desperation breeds motivation and winning can lead to complacency. Prior to the playoffs starting, the Golden Knights had given up 15 goals over three straight road games. So far Vegas has gotten superb goaltending from Marc-Andre Fleury, but with their backs against the wall, I fully expect the Kings to respond in this do-or-die situation. LA continues to get solid goaltending from Jon Quick, as he had to face 52 shots last time out. Remember, Quick and the Kings were also down 3-0 to San Jose in the first round,before then going on to win the Stanley Cup after posting three Game 7 victories a couple of years ago. I’ll point out as well that LA is 10-4 in its last 14 after scoring two goals or less in its previous contest. There’s no way the Kings are going down without a fight. I look for the desperation in which the home side plays with tonight, to turn out to be the the deciding factor in the end. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Kings. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-18 | Red Sox +143 v. Angels | 10-1 | Win | 143 | 30 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (10:05 EST). So far Shohei Ohtani has lived up to the hype, both on the mound and at the plate for the Angels. However, i think that the hard-hitting Red Sox and David Price offer great value in this spot. Price (1-1, 2.40 ERA) who gave up four runs to the Yanks in the first inning in his last start and was then subsequently pulled after feeling tingling sensations in his throwing hand. Those types of anomalous innings/starts can happen to even the best, and Price would fall victim to one of those types of performance early this season. There’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing veteran won’t bounce back here, note that he was 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA on the road last year, including 6-3 with a 3.41 ERA in all “night” games. Ohtani (2-0, 2.08) is dominating at the plate and in his most recent trip to the hill he’d go seven scoreless against the A’s, posting 12 K’s and giving up one walk. Both teams have been red hot to open the year. I simply am not reading too much into one crummy outing from Price and believe he can easily bounce back big here. Ohtani has been unbelievable to this point, but regression is imminent. Overall great value. Play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-18 | Bucks +3 v. Celtics | 106-120 | Loss | -107 | 35 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Milwaukee Bucks (8:05 EST). I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1 and it would unfortunately hit a 3-point shot at the end of regulation, pushing the game to OT, one which saw the Celtics pull away for the win and cover. With its back against the wall, I like Milwaukee to battle tough and to at the very least, sneak in through the back door with the handful of points it’s been afforded here. The Bucks shot 48.2 percent from the floor and nailed 21 three pointers in Game 1, but it wasn’t enough. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 35 points, 11 boards, seven assists and three steals in the setback, while Khris Middleton added 31 points, eight boards and six assists. Boston shot 41.5 percent from the floor in Game 1 and was just 11 of 26 from range. The Celtics did go 24 of 27 from the charity stripe, while also forcing 20 Bucks’ turnovers. Al Horford led with 24 points, 12 boards, four assists and three blocks, while Terry Rozier added 23. I’ll point out though that the Bucks have responded well in this spot for bettors, going 6-2 ATS their last eight after allowing 112 points or more while also falling in OT in their previous outing, while Boston is interestingly just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 after scoring 110 points or more, while also winning an OT playoff contest in its previous outing. How far can Boston go without Kyrie Irving? The Bucks will look to take advantage here as they lay everything on the line to try and score the split. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-18 | Reds v. Brewers -145 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 EST). Ultimately I feel that this line could easily be a lot larger when considering the talent gap on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Sal Romano (0-1, 6.46 ERA), who was shelled for four runs off five hits while walking four over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Cards on Thursday. Romano has now given up at least three earned runs in all of his three starts this year. Note that Romano was 2-4 with a 5.36 ERA in all “night” games last year and after his team smashed the Brewers 10-4 yesterday, I think he’s going to be in for another long night on Tuesday as well. The home side counters with Junior Guerra (1-0, 1.69), who gave up one run off four hits over 5.1 innings, while also striking out four for a victory in his season debut. 48 of his 86 pitches went for strikes and while he benefited from a couple of early double plays, it was a very encouraging sign and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to carry that momentum and focus over here as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati is just 1-7 (-6 units) this year in all “night” games, while Milwaukee is a solid 6-4 (+2.6 units) in the same position. Recent form suggests that Romano is in a heap of trouble. I’m banking on the Brewers responding in this favorable matchup after yesterday’s beatdown loss. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-18 | Capitals +126 v. Blue Jackets | 3-2 | Win | 126 | 33 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the Washington Capitals (7:35 EST). It’s Washington’s turn to respond in Game 3 after Columbus took the first two in the Nation’s capital. The Capitals are expected to go with Braden Holtby in Game 3, while the Blue Jackets are going with Sergei Bobrovsky again. The playoff version of Bobrovsky of years past was a confounding nightmare compared to his elite play during the regular season: 3-10 with a 3.63 goals-against average and .887 save percentage. Through two games this year, the second of which coach John Tortorella called "one of the best goaltending performances" he has seen, the reserved Russian has stopped 81 of 88 shots (.920 SP), including facing 58 shots in Game 2 win (.931 SP). Capitals coach Barry Trotz went with Philipp Grubauer over Holtby (former Vezina Trophy winner) for second straight game (3rd career postseason start) but he was pulled for allowing four goals on 22 shots. Washington had won 12 of 15 games heading into the playoffs. I’ll point out that Washington averages 3.12 GPG and it concedes 2.90, while Columbus averages 2.88 GPG, while conceding 2.76. I’ll point out as well that the Capitals are 17-5 in their last 22 after allowing five goals or more in their previous contest, while the Blue Jackets are just 2-9 in its last 11 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. For all the reasons listed above, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-18 | Orioles v. Tigers -106 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Tigers (6:40 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner (1-1, 2.50 ERA), who went seven scoreless with six K’s in a no-decision against Toronto on Tuesday. Cashner was rocked in his season debut, but he’s since put together back-to-back gems. Cashner’s peripherals though are suspect, as his 4.76 FIP dating back to 2016 points to regression sooner than later. Long-story short, I’m not convinced that Cashner has taken the next big step at this point of his career. The home side counters with the resurgent Francisco Liriano (1-1, 2.13), whose latest start against the Yanks was postponed on Sunday. After picking up a win for his new team in his debut, Liriano was sharp in his second outing as well, although received a loss for his effort after allowing two runs over six innings. Neither team has been very good this year. For the most part though MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Cashner is getting far too much respect. Liriano had a strong spring and that’s carried over. The veteran has also had a couple extra days off of rest, which will benefit him. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on the Tigers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-18 | Spurs v. Warriors -10 | Top | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 37 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). I had a play on the Warriors in Game 1 and they’d roll to a 113-92 victory. The absolute best possible thing that the Warriors could do for themselves is to end this series as quick as possible. That way they’d hope their next opponent plays a few extra games in its opening series, so as to give more time for Stephen Curry to heal and prepare for the next round. With the news that star players Kawhi Leonard is out now for the remainder season and after San Antonio collapsed so badly in the second half of Game 1, I believe that the defending champs can smell the blood in the water. Rudy Gay was a bright spot off the bench in the loss for the Spurs with 15 points, while LaMarcus Aldridge looked pretty pedestrian, finishing with 14 points (the lone starter to finish in double digits.) The Spurs looked helpless without Leonard, as JaVale McGee did a great job in slowing down Aldridge. Note that Golden State won the rebound battle 51-30 as well. Golden State’s late season “swoon” had no effect on its play in Game 1 of the Playoffs. Klay Thompson had 27 points, while Kevin Durant added 24 points, eight boards and seven assists. McGee had 15 points and two blocks, while Draymond Green finished with 12 points, eight boards and 11 assists. Note that San Antonio is just 1-4 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series, while Golden State is 8-2 ATS in its last ten in the first round of the playoffs. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Warriors. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-18 | Astros -125 v. Mariners | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:10 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (0-2, 4.20 ERA), who gave up three earned runs off five hits while striking out six over four innings in a loss to Minnesota on Tuesday. Keuchel has not found his form quite yet, but I don’t think there’s any need to over react to a couple of mediocre starts. Clearly Keuchel has the track and pedigree to return to form and that’s exactly what I expect here. Note that he was 8-2 with a 3.53 ERA on the road last season. The home side counters with James Paxton (0-1, 5.74) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk over six innings in a no-decision against the Royals on Wednesday. Paxton struggled in his season opener, but has since put together back-to-back strong efforts coming into this one. For arguments sake, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I’ll point out though that Houston is 7-2 in its last nine against teams with winning records, while Seattle is just 75-83 (-5.3 units) the last two years in the same position. I’m banking on Keuchel and the defending champs doing just enough to secure the victory on Monday night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-18 | Phillies v. Braves +118 | 1-2 | Win | 118 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola (1-0, 1.96 ERA), who gave up one run off three hits and three walks while striking out six over eight innings in a victory over the light-hitting Reds on Tuesday. Despite his shiny ERA, note that Nola’s peripherals don’t look overly impressive at the moment, sporting a 13:8 K:BB through 18.1 innings of work. The home side counters with Julio Teheran (0-1, 7.07), who bounced back from a terrible opener to receive another loss against the Nationals on Monday, this time though giving up two runs off five hits with seven K’s over six innings of work. Teheran’s start was skipped over yesterday, so he’ll be extra fresh here. Note that Philadelphia is just 3-4 (-1 units) on the road this year, while Atlanta is 4-2 (+3.1 units) at home. Nola faces a much stiffer opponent this time around, as ATL has been mashing the ball of late. I’m banking on Teheran matching his counterpart inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I’m jumping on the hard-hitting home side. Play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-18 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs -110 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:05 EST). I played the Leafs in Game 1 and that was an unfortunate loser. Toronto was then also hammered in Game 2. With its back against the wall though, I look for Toronto to finally respond with the shift in venue. Boston was 22-19 on the road, averaging 2.93 goals and conceding 2.61 in those contests. Toronto was 29-12 at home, averaging 3.34 goals and conceding just 2.66. Note that while he struggled on the road, goaltender Frederik Andersen has to be feeling confident he can bounce back here as note that he finished 23-10 with a 2.64 GAA at home. I’ll point out as well that the the Bruins are just 1-4 in their last five after scoring five goals or more in their previous game, while Toronto is 4-1 in its last five when playing on one days rest. It doesn’t get any bigger than this for Toronto, as a 3-0 hole would clearly be too much for it to climb out of. I expect the Leafs to get back into this series with their best effort yet. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-18 | Wolves v. Rockets UNDER 217 | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 76 h 19 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the under Wolves/Rockets (9:00 EST). What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s “run and gun offense” and very little defense being played. Despite that being the truth, I believe that Minnesota will be risking life and limb tonight in trying to slow this game down whenever possible so as to take the Rockets our of their “comfort zone.” Minnesota beat Denver in OT in the final game of the season to sneak in the playoffs. The Wolves come in averaging 109.5 PPG and conceding 107.3. Jimmy Butler is back in the line-up and he averages 22.2 points and 4.9 assists per game. The Rockets average 112.4 PPG and they concede 108.9. James Harden leads the team with 30.4 points and 8.8 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in three of its last nine when playing on three or more days rest, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number five of its last seven in the same position. With the visitors doing everything they can to slow Game 1 down, look for this one to sneak under the posted number at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-18 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the over Rangers/Astros (8:05 EST). These teams combined for 11 runs last night and I think we’ll see another high-scoring affair here as well. The visitors hand the ball to the venerable Bartolo Colon (0-0, 1.64 ERA) who pitched the final three innings in Tuesday’s 11-1 loss to LA. Colon has now become a temporary rotation filler for starter Doug Fister, who has a hip issue. Texas has nothing to lose right now, sitting at 26th in the league in team pitching with a collective 4.93 ERA. The home side counters with the equally as venerable Justin Verlander (2-0, 1.45) who went seven scoreless against the Twins on Monday, allowing four hits, one walk while also posting nine K’s. It’s impossible to say anything negative about Verlander, so I won’t bother. This selection is based primarily on the fact that I expect Colon to implode and get the hook early. Note as well that Texas has seen the total go over the number in five of eight already this year against clubs with winning records, while Houston has seen the total sail above the posted number in five of its last seven after allowing six or more runs in its previous contest. Everything points to this one eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-18 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals -148 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -148 | 35 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Capitals (7:30 EST). Columbus stole Game 1, 4-3 in OT. Suffice it to say, it’s payback time for the home side. It’s essentially a “do-or-die” scenario for the Capitals, who would be in tough in this series down 0-2 heading to Columbus for three straight. The Blue Jackets though are poised for a classic letdown here in my estimation. The goal of the visiting team to open a series is to score the split so as to gain home ice advantage moving forward. With that goal accomplished, I do indeed expect the visitors to come in a tiny bit complacent. Columbus averages 2.9 GPG and it concedes 2.8. Clearly the margin for error isn’t very big. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 27 of 30 shits in Game 1 to move him to 37-22-6 with a 2.42 GAA. The Capitals average 3.1 GPG and they concede 2.9. Philipp Grubauer got the start over Braden Holtby in Game 1, but Holtby is expected back in net tonight. Holtby comes in off perhaps his worst campaign of his career, but experience and home ice advantage is going to prove to be the difference today in my opinion. And as mentioned off the top, this is essentially a must-win game for the Capitals. Bobrovsky scored the victory in Game 1, but he still owns a horrible 3.57 GAA and .888 save percentage to go along with a 4-10 lifetime record in the postseason. I’m expecting the home side to go up early and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn blares. Lay the price, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-18 | Jazz +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -107 | 74 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Utah Jazz (6:30 EST). The Jazz and Thunder finished with identical 48-34 records. Utah comes in with plenty of momentum though and I like the team to carry it over in Game 1 of this Opening Round series. The Jazz have lost just six times since late January. Utah averages 104.1 PPG and it’s won 15 of its last 17 on the road. Rookie Donovan Mitchell is averaging 20.5 points and 3.7 assists per game, while Jae Crowder adds 11.8 points and 3.8 boards per night. The Thunder went 5-5 down the stretch. OKC enters average 107.9 PPG and conceding 104.4. Russell Westbrook leads the nightly charge with 25.4 points and 10.3 assists per game, while Paul George adds 21.9 points and 5.7 boards. (additional ATS supporting stats added shortly) Utah doesn’t have the overall talent that OKC possesses, but it functions better as a unit. The Jazz’s chemistry, combined with their superior defensive plays sees this one come down to the final moments. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Jazz. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-18 | Diamondbacks +210 v. Dodgers | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST). I feel that Zack Godley and the hard-hitting Arizona Diamondbacks have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Arizona throttled the over-priced Dodgers 9-1 yesterday as a +180 dog (roughly.) Clearly Clayton Kershaw is a better pitcher than Godley (2-0, 0.64), but the Arizona hurler comes into this one on top form, most recently going seven scoreless against the Giants on Monday, giving up no walks and allowing just four hits to go along with nine K’s. Godley beat Kershaw in his debut and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to match the crafty southpaw inning for inning tonight as well. Kershaw (0-2, 1.89) most recently gave up one run over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision agains San Francisco on Sunday. There’s nothing negative to say about either of these pitchers. As stated above, I simply believe that Godley can easily match pace with Kershaw into the latter frames and in a scenario like that, I think the value absolutely swings to the underdog, especially the way that the Diamondbacks are mashing the ball right now. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-18 | Cardinals -153 v. Reds | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (1:10 EST). I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to ace Carlos Martinez (1-1, 2.41 ERA), who gave up one earned run off six hits and two walks over six innings while striking out four in a no-decision against the Brewers on Tuesday. Over his last two starts Martinez has given up just a single run and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here. The home side counters with the volatile Homer Bailey (0-2, 3.24), who gave up one run off two hits while striking out seven over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Reds on Tuesday. Bailey was just 6-9 with a 6.43 ERA last year and he continues to give up too many walks. Suffice it to say, immediate regression seems imminent in my opinion. The Cards’ powerful line-up paced to a 6-1 victory yesterday and an even bigger lop-sided blowout is in the cards here. Lay the price, play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-18 | Bucks +4 v. Celtics | 107-113 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the Milwaukee Bucks (1:00 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for this one to come down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Milwaukee averages 106.5 PPG and it concedes 106.8. Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 26.9 points and ten boards, while Khris Middleton adds 20.1 points and four assists. Note that Eric Bledsoe is a strong third option as well. Boston lost star Kyrie Irving for the rest of the season to injury and it would then predictably lose four of its final six games. The C’s average 104 PPG and they concede 100.4. Jaylen Brown averages 14.5 points and 4.9 boards, while Jayson Tatum adds 13.9 points and five boards per game. I’ll point out though that the underdog is 14-5 ATS in the last 19 in this series and the road team is 11-4 ATS the last 15. Also note that Boston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight when playing with three or more days rest. Milwaukee can smell the blood in the water without Irving in the line-up. It’s now or never for the Bucks to take control of this series and send a message to their opponent. Grab the points, play on Milwaukee. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 54 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the New Orleans Pelicans (10:30 EST). While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I believe that the hungry visiting side will at the very least take this one right down to the wire. The Pelicans closed the regular season with five straight victories and I’m fully expecting the team to carry that momentum over here. New Orleans averages 111.7 PPG, while Portland averages 105.5. Pelicans big man Anthony Davis finished the year with 28.1 points, 11.1 boards, 2.3 assists and 2.5 blocks per game, while Jrue Holiday averages 25.2 points and six assists. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on New Orleans’ point guard Rajon Rondo, who closed the regular season on a tear. The Blazers are of course led by star Damian Lillard, who put up 26.9 points, 4.5 boards and 6.6 assister per night, while CJ McCollum added 21.4 points, four boards and 3.4 assists per game. I’ll point out though that from a trend based stand point, this one favors the visitors, as note that the Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 on the road, while the Trailblazers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight at home in this series. These clubs split four meetings this year by an average of just 6.7 points. Everything points to another competitive battle in Game 1, so grab as many points as you can. Play on New Orleans. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-18 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | 103-130 | Win | 100 | 51 h 3 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia 76ers (8:00 EST). Philadelphia big man Joel Embiid is sitting Game 1, but I still believe that the red hot 76ers will have more than enough in the tank to cover this mid-sized spread once it’s all said and done. Miami comes in cold, splitting its last ten games. Note that the Heat average 103.4 PPG and they concede 102.9. Goran Dragic averages 17.3 points and 4.8 assists per game, while Hassan Whiteside contributes 14 points and 11.8 boards per night. Note that the Heat have lost five of their last six on the road. Note that the 76ers haven’t lost a game since March 13th, while also not dropping a single home contest since January 15th. Philadelphia averages 109.8 PPG and it concedes 105.3. Philadelphia is an incredibly deep team, led by Ben Simmons with 15.8 points and 8.1 boards per night. I’ll point out though that Miami is just 4-9 ATS tho shear when playing with two days rest, while Philadelphia is 9-4 ATS in the same position. No upset here. For all the reasons listed above, play on the 76ers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-18 | Angels -150 v. Royals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (7:15 EST). Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, both on the mound and at the plate. The visitors hand the ball to Garrett Richards (1-0, 4.20 ERA), who gave up one earned run off four hits over 4.1 innings while striking out six and walking five in a no-decision against the Rangers on Monday. Richards has issued 12 free passes so far, but his 19 K’s are nothing to sneeze about after three games. The home side counters with Jakob Junis (2-0, 0.00) has so far thrown 14 scoreless innings. Junis has been fantastic in the early going, but note that he’s about to run into a buzz saw today in the Angels offense (also note that Junis posted a 4.75 ERA in all “night” games last season.) The Angels have averaged almost 8.00 RPG over their last 12, while KC has averaged just 3.7. I think Richards can match the over-achieving Junis inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I’m going to lay what I believe to be a very reasonable price on the hard-hitting visiting side. Play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-18 | Brewers +114 v. Mets | 5-1 | Win | 114 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST). I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog here, as I do in fact think that Chase Anderson has the advantage over Matt Harvey. Anderson (0-1, 3.38 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off four hits and two walks while striking out two over six innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Anderson was 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA last season, including 7-3 with a 2.95 ERA on the road and 6-1 with a 2.55 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Harvey (0-0, 3.60), who was shelled for four runs off nine hits and a walk while striking out just one over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Nationals on Sunday. Harvey looked sharp in his first start of the year, but he quickly came back down to Earth in the second. Note that he came into this season having posted a poor 5.78 ERA, and 1.58 WHIP spanning 36 appearances over the past two years. The Mets have been on an absolute tear to open the season, but MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I feel that Anderson should in fact be a much larger fav in this particular matchup. I like Anderson and the Brewers to score the upset on the road on Saturday night. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-18 | Phillies +104 v. Rays | Top | 9-4 | Win | 104 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (6:10 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (0-0, 4.50 ERA) who gave up three runs off three hits while walking two and striking out five in a victory against the Marlins on Sunday. Arrieta gave up all of his earned runs in the first inning, but only allowed two base runners after that. The home side counters with the volatile Chris Archer (1-0, 5.94), who picked up a win despite giving up four runs off six hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in his teams eventual 5-4 win over the White Sox on Monday. Over three games (16.2 innings) Archer has now given up three home runs. Philadelphia is 5-2 (+3 units) this year in night games, while Tampa Bay is already 0-3 (-3 units) in the same position. Arrieta’s velocity remains the same as it was last year and I think he improves on his latest outing. Archer continues to struggle and I think he’ll succumb early. Great value, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-18 | Wizards v. Raptors -8 | 106-114 | Push | 0 | 49 h 33 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (5:30 EST). Some of the Washington players recently said publicly that they’re happy to be facing Toronto instead of Philadelphia to open the Playoffs and clearly that’s not going to be sitting well with DeMar DeRozan and company. DeRozan put up 23 points and 5.2 assists per game this season, while teammate Kyle Lowry added 16.2 points and 6.9 assists per night. Washington counters with John Wall, who averaged 19.4 PPG, and with Bradley Beal who contributes 22.6. Wall and Beal are tough to slow down, but beyond these two, the Wizards are thin. Washington does feature the talented Kelly Oubre Jr and Markieff Morris, but neither has much experience at this level. The Raptors are a battle tested group that’s played together for years. They know what it takes at this point of the season and I’m fully expecting them to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. I’ll point out as well that Washington is just 1-7 ATS in its last seven on the road and only 1-5 ATS in its last six road game against a team with a winning home record, while Toronto is 6-2 ATS in its last eight when playing with three or more days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Raptors. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-18 | Spurs v. Warriors -8 | 92-113 | Win | 100 | 46 h 3 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Golden State Warriors (3:00 EST). Much was made about the Warriors’ slump to end the regular season. Stephen Curry is sidelined with injury and KD and the rest of the crew have seemingly run out of gas. But as Golden State head coach Steve Kerr has said several times over the last few weeks, the “real” season starts tonight and I’m not going to read too much into the last couple of weeks of results. The Warriors, in my opinion, took the foot off the gas to end the regular season, planning and preparing for the Playoffs early. But now that they’re here, I fully expect the defending champs (sans Curry), to put on a show tonight. San Antonio has relied primarily on big man LaMarcus Aldridge this season, anchoring a defense which leads the league in many statistical categories. The offense though will simply not be able to keep up with veteran Manu Ginobili as the main weapon at this point of the season. The Spurs’ only hope is to slow this one down and grind out a victory. But I don’t see that happening. Kevin Durant will be playing like a man possessed tonight for the Warriors and Draymond Green will also be looking to make a statement. Their leadership has been called into question recently and they’ll be looking to answer their critics with a big game. And I’m fully expecting that to happen. Klay Thompson will also be a player in which the Spurs will have a hard time slowing down. I’ll point out that San Antonio is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games, while Golden State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven when playing with three or more days rest. For all the reasons listed above play on the Warriors. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-18 | Rockies v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the under Rockies/Nationals (1:05 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one on Saturday afternoon and in my opinion, all signs point to a classic “duel.” The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (1-2, 5.63 ERA), who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up seven runs off ten hits while striking out six over five innings in a loss to the Padres on Monday. Gray has two poor starts and one gem so far this season. Note he was 5-3 with a 4.06 ERA on the road last year and 3-0 with a 4.00 ERA in all “day” games. Note that Colorado slugger Charlie Blackmon remains out for this one as well. The home side counters with ace Max Scherzer (2-1, 0.90) who gave up just two hits over nine shutout innings, while also striking out ten in a victory over the Braves on Monday. Scherzer enters on top form and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be carrying that momentum over here. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I look for these two to battle deep and for this total to ultimately fall under the posted number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-13-18 | Diamondbacks +118 v. Dodgers | 8-7 | Win | 118 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 EST). I think Zack Greinke will pull off the minor upset against his former team here. Arizona is in first place in the NL West with a 9-3 record, while LA has stumbled out of the blocks with a 4-7 mark. Greinke (0-1, 5.06 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget against St. Louis, allowing five runs off nine hits over five innings, while also striking out five. Greinke had a decent spring, but so far that hasn’t translated into any sort of success in the regular season. The southpaw was 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA at Dodger Stadium last year, but he clearly has the track record and pedigree to turn things around immediately. The home side counters with Kenta Maeda (1-0, 0.00) who so far in two appearances has looked sharp, most recently throwing a scoreless inning of relief at AT&T Park against the Giants. I’ll point out though that Maeda had a heck of time when he faced the D-Backs last year, over five starts going 0-2 with a ballooned 7.36 ERA, while allowing 19 runs over 22 innings of work. I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 90-80 (+9.5 units) the last two seasons following a victory, while LA is already just 2-4 (-3.7 units) this season following a loss. Maeda has been one of the only bright spots on the Dodgers this year, but I think he’ll once again have his hands full with this hard-hitting Arizona line-up. Greinke has for the most part been a bit of a disappointment, but I think he’ll at the very least match Maeda inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the surging underdog. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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04-13-18 | Angels -125 v. Royals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels (8:15 EST). LA has has won four straight, while the Royals have as many wins as LA has losses (three.) The Angels come into this one on fire at the plate, averaging six or more runs in six of their last eight games. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Heaney, who makes his season debut tonight. Last year he was injured as well, but he comes in off a decent spring and the southpaw has been given the green light this evening. The Royals have averaged just 3.1 runs per nine innings over their last ten games and the rotation has a 4.10 ERA collectively in the same span. The home side counters with Jason Hammel (0-1, 4.09), who comes in off a no-decision against the Tribe on Sunday, holding them six scoreless in the eventual 3-1 setback. In his debut he’d get shelled for five runs over five innings. I’ll point out that LA is 8-2 in its last ten against teams with a winning percentage below 40, while KC is just 1-5 in its last six starts made by Hammel. I’m going to go with the hotter hitting team in this one. I think these pitchers are a “wash,” but clearly the Angels are mashing right now and there’s no reason not to think that they won’t continue that trend this evening. All things considered a great price, play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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04-13-18 | Pirates -135 v. Marlins | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -135 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10 EST). Pittsburgh took the series with the Cubs yesterday (2-1), finishing up with a 6-1 victory. The Pirates are on fire at the plate early, averaging a whopping 7.53 runs per nine innings over their last six. The visitors hand the ball to Chad Kuhl (1-0, 5.06 ERA), who looked decent in a no decision against the Reds in his last outing. giving up two earned runs off five hits to go along with seven K’s over five innings of work, including no home runs. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in the league, due to major turnover and injury. The Fish are waiting for both JT Riddle and Martin Prado to return still. The home side turns to the volatile Dillon Peters (1-1, 9.35), who after going six scoreless against the Cubs in his season debut, would get shelled for nine runs off nine hits over 2.2 innings in a 20-1 loss to the Phillies in his latest action. Not much was expected of Miami this season and so far the Marlins have lived up to those expectations. Not much was expected of the Pirates either, but so far Pittsburgh has exceeded expectations to this point. I think Kuhl gets the big nod on the mound in this matchup and I like Pittsburgh to carry over its momentum at the plate in this favorable matchup. Lay the price, play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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04-13-18 | Flyers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on the under Flyers/Penguins (7:00 EST). I had a play on the “under” in Game 1 of this series and that would unfortunately turn out to be a loser in the Penguins’ 7-0 destruction of the Flyers. Philadelphia will be laying everything it has on the line tonight to atone for that pathetic effort and to try to steal Game 2 so as to wrest back the home ice advantage. The goaltender matchup tonight features Brian Elliot of the Flyers, who is 23-18 with a 2.66 GAA, against Matt Murray, who is 27-19 with a 2.92 GAA. Philadelphia is 20-22 on the road, averaging 2.95 goals and conceding 3.00. Pittsburgh is 31-11 at home, averaging 3.71 goals and conceding 2.62 in those contests. I’ll point out though that the Flyers have seen the total go under the number in ten of 16 this year after scoring one goal or less in their previous outing, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after scoring six or more goals in its previous contest, while also shutting out its opponent at the same time. I think the conditions are right for a much more defensive affair in Game 2 of this Opening Round series. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-18 | Sharks +127 v. Ducks | 3-0 | Win | 127 | 34 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* UPSET SPECIAL is on the San Jose Sharks (10:30 EST). I think San Jose will steal Game 1 of this Western Conference opening round series. This is a matchup between second and third seeds from the Pacific, as Anaheim earned home-ice advantage by just a single point. San Jose clearly got caught “looking ahead” to the playoffs, as it would go on to lose five of its last six games, ruining the opportunity of having home ice in this series. Regardless of that though, I believe the Sharks are going to bounce back fine in this series. Note that San Jose won three of the four regular season meetings between the clubs, including both games played in Anaheim. Keep your eyes on Sharks’ forward Evander Kane, who has posted nine goals and five assists in 17 games since coming over from Buffalo. Anaheim looks poised for a letdown in the opener in my opinion after its furious close to the year, earning points in 11 of its final 12 games. Ducks’ starting goaltender John Gibson was red hot, but he suffered an injury on April 1st which caused him to miss the final three games of the regular season. Gibson has been cleared to go here, but I think he’s still a bit of a question mark heading in. Whoever gets the start in net for the Ducks tonight (could also be Ryan Miller or Rickard Rakell), I think they’re a “wash” with the Sharks Martin Jones. I’ll point out though that San Jose is 11-5 (+5.1 units) this year after playing three consecutive home games, while Anaheim is just 4-6 (-3.7 units) following a three-game unbeaten streak. The Sharks dominated this series all year long and everything does indeed point to an upset in Game 1. Play on San Jose. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-18 | Giants -117 v. Padres | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:10 EST). Both teams are under .500 in the early stages of the season, but for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. This is the opener of an 11-day, ten-game road trip for San Francisco and clearly it’ll be motivated to get it started off on the “right foot.” Keep your eyes on slugger Buster Posey, who has opened the year on a tear, going 14 for 30 with two home runs and six RBI’s during a nine-game hitting run. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Stratton (0-1, 4.35 ERA), who has faced the Dodgers twice to open the season and who would give up five earned runs off nine hits over ten innings of work. Clearly Stratton has a much more favorable matchup here against the light-hitting Friars (note that Stratton posted a solid 3.29 ERA over 27.1 spring innings.) The Padres ended their road trip in Colorado yesterday with a loss and a bench clearing brawl. I think the team comes in distracted and flat-footed after the drama yesterday. The home side hands the ball to Bryan Mitchell (0-1, 4.22), who was shelled in his season debut, but who bounced back to hold the Rockies scoreless over 5.2 innings last weekend. I like Stratton to settle down here in this pitcher friendly park and I give him the slight nod in this matchup as despite his decent outing last time out, Mitchell’s consistency is called into question until we see a larger sample size. Play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox -107 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). I had a play on Boston in its 14-1 win in the opener of this series and then I would come back again with the Red Sox in their unfortunate 10-7 setback yesterday. I’m back on the horse again on Thursday though. The Yanks had lost four of five before yesterday’s victory. The visitors hand the ball to Sonny Gray, who is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, five walks and 12 K’s over ten innings of work so far this year. In his latest action he’d give up three runs to the Orioles on Saturday. I’ll point out though that Gray has struggled throughout his career against the Red sox, going just 1-4 with a 4.93 ERA over 34.2 career innings. Note that Gray has been horrible at Fenway as well, going 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.841 WHIP spanning 14.2 frames. The home side counters with Rick Porcello, who is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, one walk and 11 K’s over 11.2 innings thus far. Porcello has had decent success against the Yanks throughout his career, going 8-8 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.225 WHIP with 29 walks and 89 K’s spanning 118.1 innings opposed. Note that he’s 28-20 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.284 WHIP, with 63 walks and 293 K’s over 53 career starts at Fenway. I’ll point out as well that New York is just 1-5 in its last six road games against right-handed starters, while Boston is 4-0 in its last four home games against a right-handed starter. I give Porcello the slight nod in this matchup and I think the home side will bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. All things considered I do indeed feel this is a great price. Play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-18 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -150 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Bruins (7:00 EST). Game 1 of the best of 7 series and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. It’s payback time for Boston, as Toronto took three of four in the regular season. The Leafs send Frederik Andersen to the net and he finished 38-26 with a 2.81 GAA. Toronto’s achilles heel all season though has been its play on the road, where it’s just 20-21, averaging 3.24 goals and conceding 2.95 in those contests. Andersen has had considerable success against the Bruins throughout his career, going 10-1 with a 2.09 GAA, but I think that run ends this evening. The Bruins counter with Tuukka Rask, who is 34-19 with a 2.36 GAA this season. Boston went 28-13 at home and averaged 3.59 goals, while conceding 3.54 in those contests. Rask is 16-9 with a 2.14 GAA lifetime against the Leafs. I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 16-42 in its last 48 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Boston is 4-1 (+3 units) in its last five when playing on three days rest. I’m banking on the “home ice” and “revenge” factors being the difference in the opener of this series. Lay the price, play on the Bruins. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-18 | Cardinals -129 v. Reds | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (6:40 EST). This is the opener of a four-game set between the teams and the first matchup between the clubs this season. Last year the Cards won the season series 10-9. The visitors hand the ball to Michael Wacha, who gave up two runs over five innings in a win over Arizona in his latest action. Wacha has to be feeling pretty confident here, as he’s dominated the Reds throughout his career, going 8-1 with a 2.85 ERA in 16 starts against them. So far St. Louis comes into this one ranked middle of the pack in scoring with an average of 4.09 runs per game. Cincinnati is averaging 3.10 RPG, while also holding a league worst 6.04 combined ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Sal Romano, who was shelled for four runs off seven hits over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates in his latest action. Over 98 innings in the big leagues Romano has issued 48 walks. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is 16-5 in Wacha’s last 21 road starts against teams with a losing record, while Cincinnati is a poor 3-12 in its last 15 against right-handed starters. I think the Reds’ offensive issues carry over here and I look for Wacha to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Great price, play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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04-11-18 | Kings +120 v. Golden Knights | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Kings (10:00 EST). Las Vegas defied all the odds and became the greatest expansion team in all of sports history this season. But now that the playoffs are here, I think it’s going to have a predictable letdown (in Game 1 anyways!) The Kings enter the playoffs on top form, winning five of their last six and managing to secure the wild card spot. LA sends out Jon Quick, who finished 33-28-3, but I think he’s poised for a big series. These teams actually split their four-game season series as division opponents. Las Vegas took the first two games, but LA would take the second two, including a home and home set in which it prevailed 3-2 in OT at home, followed by a 4-1 win on the road in Vegas. The home side counters with Marc-Andre Fleury in net and he finished 29-13-4 overall. For arguments sake, let’s call these goaltenders a “wash.” In a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the experienced underdog. Great value for the Kings stealing Game 1. Good luck…Larry |
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04-11-18 | Pistons -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 119-87 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Pistons (8:00 EST). The 38-43 Detroit Pistons are in Chicago to take on the 27-53 Bulls in a meaningless contest and for a number of different reasons, I think this one faovrs the visitors. Chicago is 27-53 and it comes in off back-to-back losses. Detroit enters off consecutive setbacks as well, most recently falling to Toronto. Both teams will go through significant changes in the offseason, but for me this one boils down to some strong “against-the-spread” statistics. As note that Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six on the road, while Chicago is just 11-13 ATS this year after three or more consecutive losses. The Pistons are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine against losing opponents. I think Detroit’s current line-up has more than enough in it to take out the ravaged Bulls. Play on the Pistons. Good luck…Larry |
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04-11-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox -108 | 10-7 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 60 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). I had a play on the Red Sox last night and they’d go on to post a 14-1 victory. While a blowout of that size is likely out of the cards in this one, I think we’re once again getting great value on the home side in this matchup. Mookie Betts hit a grand slam in the lop-sided destruction yesterday. Tonight the visitors hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka, who was 2-2 with a 2.83 ERA against the Red Sox last season. Tanaka has given up just ten earned runs over 36 1/3’s innings of work at Fenway Park. Boston sends David Price to the hill, who posted a 6-3, 3.32 ERA in all 11 starts last season. Price though comes in on top form, shutting out Tampa Bay twice to open the season, allowing just seven hits, while striking out ten in that span. Note that Price was 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two starts against New York last year. For arguments sake, let’s call these staters a “wash.” The Yanks are struggling at the plate right now though, especially slugger Giancarlo Stanton. Boston’s offense is firing on all cylinders, as evidenced by yesterday’s barrage. All signs point to another comfortable victory for the hard-hitting home side in my opinion. As mentioned off the top, I feel that this is great line value. Play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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04-11-18 | Flyers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -117 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PEFECT STORM is on the under Flyers/Penguins (7:00 EST). Pittsburgh swept the season 4-0 this year. Philadelphia will send out Brian Elliot between the pipes and he went 23-18 with a 2.66 GAA, while the home side counters with Matt Murray, who was 27-19 with a 2.92 GAA. Philadelphia was 20-21 on the road, averaging 3.02 goals and conceding 2.90 in those contests. Elliot has for the most part been spectacular whenever he’s faced the Penguins, going 7-5 with a 2.88 GAA lifetime. Pittsburgh is 30-11 at home, averaging 3.63 goals and conceding 2.68 in those contests. Note that Murray is 3-2 with a 3.00 GAA lifetime against the Flyers. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five in the first four of the playoffs, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five when playing with three or more days rest. These were a couple of the highest scoring teams in the league, but I’m expecting more of a defensive battle to open the playoffs. With these two competent goaltenders going head-to-head, everything does indeed point to the under as the correct call here. Good luck…Larry |
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04-11-18 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -105 | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
NO ACTION, PITCHING CHANGE |
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04-11-18 | Mariners -130 v. Royals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Mariners (2:15 EST). Seattle has been dealing with early injuries, but it comes in at .500 after eight games. The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton, who comes in 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA after two starts so far this season. Paxton looked decent though in his last outing against the Twins, going five scoreless before surrounding a two-run home run in the sixth for a no-decision. Paxton has to be feeling pretty confident here as well, last year at Kaufman he gave up two runs off four hits while striking out seven over six innings in the victory. The home side counters with Danny Duffy, who is 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA after two starts. Duffy is not the same pitcher as he was in 2015 and since then he’s gone 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six appearances against Seattle. I’ll point out as well that KC is already just 1-4 (-3.4 units) in its last five when the obey line in the contest is in the +125 to -125 range, while Seattle is 20-8 (+9.2 units) in its last 28 as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range. Paxton is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts lifetime against the Royals and I think he’ll get the better of his volatile counterpart tonight. Great price, play on the Mariners. Good luck…Larry |
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04-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -108 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
NO PLAY, PITCHING CHANGE |
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04-10-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -171 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST). Ultimately I feel that this line could easily be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Brent Suter (1-1, 6.30 ERA), who was rocked for five runs off eight hits in an 8-0 loss to the Cubs on Thursday. Suter showed potential in 2017 with a 3-2, 3.42 ERA, but clearly third-year pro is struggling across the board right now. The home side counters with ace Carlos Martinez (1-1, 2.84), who enters off a gem against these very Brewers on Wednesday, going eight scoreless and striking out ten, while giving up just two walks. Martinez struggled in his season debut, but the veteran settled down nicely in his second outing and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, “recent form” is often the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Suter is in for another long night here. Martinez has the home field advantage and I expect him to easily out duel his overmatched counterpart. Lay the price, play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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04-10-18 | Astros -137 v. Twins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -137 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* 34-Club Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST). I think Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros are well worth the price of admission in this one. Keuchel (0-1, 3.27 ERA) gave up two runs (just one earned) off five hits and four walks while striking out three over five innings in what turned out to be a no decision in his last outing. Keuchel has laboured some to open the 2018 season, but I don’t think there’s any need to panic. Keuchel should feel pretty confident here as well, not only with this potent line-up backing him up, but also because he was 8-2 with a 3.53 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (0-0, 2.61) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks with two K’s over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Wednesday. Odorizzi looked shaky on the mound, throwing just 12 first pitch strikes to 21 opponents and just 48 K’s out of 87 total pitches. Odorizzi posted a brilliant season debut, but he quickly came back down to Earth in his second outing. And simply put, I don’t think it’s going to get any better for the hard-throwing right-hander here against the defending champs (note that Odorizzi was just 5-6 with a pedestrian 4.26 ERA in all “home” situations last season.) Keuchel has been above average, but hasn’t nearly reached his “normal” form. I think that changes tonight though. Odorizzi closed 2017 decently and while he looked sharp in his opener, his second start was a stark reminder on why the Rays let him walk so easily. I’m banking on Keuchel out duelling Odorizzi. Lay the price, play on Houston. Good luck…Larry |
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04-10-18 | 76ers v. Hawks +9.5 | Top | 121-113 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:30 EST). Philadelphia won its 14th in a row by besting Dallas 109-97 at home on Sunday, unable to cover the 13 point spread. With many of the starters sitting this one out for the visitors, I think the home side keeps this one competitive. And that’s exactly what Atlanta did most recently, beating Boston 112-106 on the road on Sunday. Note that this is an “in season double revenge scenario” as well, with Philadelphia having taken both prior match ups, including a 101-91 road win in the most recent on March 30th. The 76ers can’t afford to take the foot off the gas with the Cavaliers sitting just a game behind them in fourth spot. But with a game tomorrow night at home against the Bucks and with big man Joel Embiid sitting this one out, I think the stage is set for an upset. Perhaps not a straight up upset, but certainly I’m expecting a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Hawks are arguably playing their best ball of the year right now, having gone 4-1 ATS in their last five. Everything points to a “nail biter” in my opinion, so grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-10-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox -133 | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). A couple of competent starters face off against a couple of hard-hitting line-ups in this feature American League East showdown between the Yanks and Red Sox on Tuesday night, but for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino (2-0, 1.38 ERA), who gave up two runs off five hits and one walk over 7.1 innings, while also striking out seven in a victory over Tampa Bay on Wednesday. With a 1.38 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 14/4 K/W, clearly this won’t be a cake walk. But the home side counters with ace Chris Sale (0-0, 0.82), who gave up one run off five hits while striking out six over five innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Miami on Tuesday. Sale will be motivated here to punch one into the win column, coming up empty thus far despite allowing only one run through 11 innings of work. I’ll point out though that New York has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 18-23 (-11.7 units) in its last 41 when playing with a day off, while Boston is 25-9 (+13.6 units) in the same position. Home field advantage can’t be overlooked here either. I think this is a great price, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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04-09-18 | Pelicans v. Clippers +6 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Clippers (10:30 EST). There’s no question that this game “means” a lot to the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans are locked in a tie with three other teams with the identical record in the West with just two games to go. New Orleans is currently in the fifth spot, but San Antonio and OKC each also sit 18 games back of the Rockets. Minnesota sits 19 games back, as too does Denver. With two games remaining in the regular season, as I stated off the top, this does indeed “mean” a lot to the visiting side. The Clippers sit 22 games back and won’t be making a trip to the playoffs. LA though will look to try and play spoiler any way it can and to avenge a 121-116 setback in mid March. The Pelicans are surging, but after upsetting the Warriors on the road in their last matchup, I absolutely believe this sets up as a major letdown spot for the visitors. I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is just 15-18 ATS this year against good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest, while LA is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 against poor defensive teams which concede 106-plus points per night. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab the points, play on the Clippers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-09-18 | Diamondbacks v. Giants +127 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). I think the hungry home side offers great value in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (1-0, 1.29 ERA), who enters off a gem against Clayton Kershaw in his debut, giving up one earned run off four hits over seven innings while striking out three on Tuesday. The home side counters with veteran Derek Holland (0-0, 5.40), who gave up five runs (just three earned) off three hits and three walks over five innings while striking out four in a loss to the Dodgers last Saturday. I’ll point out though that Arizona is just 63-82 (-7.7 units) the last two seasons against clubs with winning records, while the Giants are a solid 7-3 (+5.6 units) in their last ten when the money line is between -130 and +130 range. I like Godley, but I’m not convinced that the hard-throwing right-hander has taken the next step completely. The Diamondbacks are getting a little too much respect here in my opinion. Great value, play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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04-09-18 | Reds v. Phillies -130 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). Off their 6-3 home loss to Miami at home as a -200 favorite yesterday, I think the Phillies will bounce back on Monday night in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Cody Reed, who was 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA last year and who makes his season debut tonight. Over 65.1 career big league innings Reed has posted a poor 6.75 ERA and once Brandon Finnegan returns to the rotation, Reed will be heading back to AAA. The home side counters with Ben Lively (0-1, 3.18), who enters off a tough luck loss after giving up two runs off six hits with one walk while striking out five over 5.2 innings against the Mets on Tuesday. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, “recent form” is often the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Reed is in over his head here, while Lively is in line for another productive evening. Lay the price, play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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04-09-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -115 | 7-1 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). I think these starters are evenly matched, but home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real factor in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to JA Happ (1-1, 5.40 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off seven hits and one walk across 5.1 innings in a fortunate victory over the White Sox on Tuesday. Happ owns a sharp 12.6 K/9 over his first two starts, but his ERA certainly leaves something to be desired. The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (0-0, 0.69) who gave up two runs off five hits and two walks while striking out eight over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Houston on Wednesday. Bundy comes in on top form, having already posted 15 K’s to just three walks spanning 13 innings. Note that he was 10-6 with a 3.55 ERA in all “night” games last season. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, “recent form” is often the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Happ is going to have his hands full again in this hostile environment. Bundy on the other hand definitely looks poised for a break out campaign and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry his momentum over into this one. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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04-09-18 | Rays v. White Sox OVER 8 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the over Rays/White Sox (2:10 EST). Each starter in this one has gotten out to an inauspicious start to the 2018 MLB campaign and I believe they’re going to get chased early today as well. And as a result, I look for this one to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (0-0, 6.55 ERA), who was fortunate to receive a second straight no-decision to open the year after getting rocked for four runs off six hits with three walks over five innings against the Yankees on Tuesday. Archer was 10-12 with a 4.07 ERA last year, including a poor 5-6 with a 4.97 ERA on the road. The home side counters with confirmed “gas gan” Miguel Gonzalez (0-1, 9.00), who was shelled for six runs off eight hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Jays on Tuesday. Gonzalez was 8-13 with a 4.62 ERA last year, including a pedestrian 4-5 with a 4.10 ERA at home. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, “recent form” is often the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests were in line for a real “slugfest” on Monday afternoon. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 8 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show | |
My 9* TOP TOTAL is on the over Mets/Nationals (8:05 EST). Each of these volatile starters comes in off a gem in their respective openers, but I believe they’ll both “come back down to Earth” on the national stage and as such, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Harvey (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who went five scoreless in an unfortunate no-decision against the Phillies on Tuesday. Harvey was 5-7 with a 6.70 ERA last year and he was particularly ineffective in this spot by going just 2-6 with a 7.14 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Tanner Roark (1-0, 1.29), who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings while striking out six in a victory over the Braves on Monday. Roark took a step back in 2016 with an overall 13-11, 4.67 ERA and note that he was poor in this position as well by going just 6-6 with a ballooned 5.04 ERA in all “night” games. I am unconvinced that either of these erratic starters has firmly turned any corners at this point and I expect immediate regression from both. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-18 | A's +162 v. Angels | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (4:05 EST). I think Kendall Graveman offers great value to score the upset here against the overrated and still truly untested Shohei Ohtani. Graveman (0-1, 8.10 ERA) was 6-4 with a 4.19 ERA last year. Graveman gave up four runs over five innings in a 4-1 loss to Texas on Tuesday. With those two rough starts out of the way, there’s no reason not to think that Graveman can’t/won’t bounce back here (note that Graveman was solid in this spot last season as well, going 2-0 with a 3.51 ERA in all “day” games.) Ohanti (1-0, 4.50) is a Japanese rookie, who also plays in the field. Ohtani was just 4 for 32 in spring training, but he’s hit .389 with a 1.310 OPS in the majors. With so much focus on his performance at the plate, the stage is now set for the youngster to stumble on the mound. With the spotlight firmly on the rookie, I think he stumbles. Graveman will be coming into this one with a chip on his shoulder and so too will the A’s. Great value, play on Oakland. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-18 | Braves v. Rockies -134 | 4-0 | Loss | -134 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (0-1, 10.38 ERA) who gave up five runs off five hits and four walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Nationals on Monday. Note that it was the eighth time in 20 career starts in which he’s walked four batters. Kyle Freeland (0-1, 6.75) gets the nod for the home side and he comes in off a sub-par opener as well, giving up four runs off five hits over 5.1 innings, while also striking out six in an 8-4 loss to San Diego on Tuesday. Freeland was 11-11 with a 4.15 ERA last season, but it’s significant to note that he was consistently at his best in this position by posting a very respectable 3.72 ERA at home, while also going a sparkling 9-4 with a 3.17 ERA in all “day” games. The Braves’ bats have gotten out to a hot start to the 2018 campaign, but recent performance here suggests that Newcomb is going to be in for another long night in the thin air of Coors Field. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-18 | Cubs -131 v. Brewers | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (2:10 EST). Jose Quintana (0-1, 9.00 ERA) will be eager to atone for a poor season debut after getting rocked for six earned runs off six hits and four walks over six innings against the Marlins. Quintana was just 11-11 with a 4.15 ERA last season, but he was particularly sharp on the road by posting a 3.44 ERA. Chase Anderson (0-0, 3.60) comes in off a sub-par start as well, giving up four earned runs off eight hits over just four innings while striking out five in his team’s come from behind 5-4 win over St. Louis on Tuesday. Anderson had a breakout campaign in 2017, but I think his last start was telling. Quintana was solid on the road last year and after his poor season opener, I think the hard-throwing southpaw will get back on track in his second outing. All things considered I feel a very fair price. Play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-18 | Reds v. Pirates -142 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 EST). Both of these starters comes in off decent season debuts, but I still think that this one highly favors Jameson Taillon and the home side. Cincinnati sends Tyler Mahle (1-0, 0.00 ERA) to the hill and he most recently went six shutout against the Cubs on Monday, while also striking out seven. Hard to get a firm read on where Mahle is at though, last year he was 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA in his limited time in the bigs. The home side counters with Taillon (1-0, 3.38) who gave up two runs off four hits and struck out nine over 5.1 innings in Monday’s victory over Minnesota. Taillon threw 61 of his 91 pitches for strikes and struck out nine, while not giving up a single walk. Note that Taillon was particularly effective in this spot last season by going 4-1 with a 2.93 ERA in all “day” games. Mahle’s season debut was impressive, but I think the book is still out on the second year pro. Taillon on the other hand posted a solid spring and he clearly carried that momentum over into his first start of the year. And there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well and take advantage of familiar surroundings. All things considered, I feel this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-18 | Mavs v. 76ers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 97-109 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the under Mavs/76ers (1:05 EST). Dallas comes in off a second straight loss, most recently falling 113-106 in OT at Detroit on Friday. Philadelphia has won 13 straight after holding on for a 132-130 OT home win over the Cavaliers on Friday. Both teams come in tired and I’m expecting this total to stay well below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The Mavericks average 102.4 PPG and they concede 105.1. Harrison Barnes leads the nightly charge with 18.8 points and 6.1 boards per game, while rookie Dennis Smith Jr. adds 15.1 points and 5.1 assists per night. Johnathan Motley led the way in the most recent loss though with 26 points and 13 boards. The 76ers average 109.4 PPG and they concede 105.4. Big man Joel Embiid will be sitting this one out, meaning that Ben Simmons will be asked to carry the load, he is averaging 16 points, 8.2 boards, 8.2 assists and 1.72 steals per game. I’ll point out that Dallas has seen the total go under the number in four of six already this year after playing to three or more consecutive OVERs, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of 13 after allowing 115 points or more this season. Fatigue is a very real factor at this time of year. The Mavs look poised for another letdown here after their latest collapse, while the 76ers could also be caught “flat footed” after their most recent victory over their most heated rival. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -6 | Top | 126-120 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Golden State Warriors (8:30 EST). New Orleans is in a dog fight in the Western Conference right now, tied for the fifth spot with three other teams. The Pelicans snapped a four-game slide with a 123-95 win at home over Memphis, but I think they’ll struggle here against a Warriors team that comes in with a chip on its shoulder. The Warriors’ three-game win streak was snapped in a 126-106 road loss at Indiana and the vultures are already circling with star Steph Curry out with injury until the postseason. If recent history is any precedence though, then the home side has to be liking its chances in this one, as it’s already taken three straight in the series this year, including a 125-11 road win in the most recent matchup all the way back on December 4th. The Pelicans average 111.3 PPG and they concede 110.7. Anthony Davis leads the nightly charge with 28.1 points, 11.1 boards and 2.49 blocks per game. The Warriors average 113.8 PPG and they concede 107.2. Kevin Durant averages 26.5 points, 6.9 boards and 5.4 assists per game. I’ll point out though that New Orleans is just 17-18 ATS this year as the underdog, while Golden State is 7-4 ATS this season following a loss by ten points or more. The Warriors are “injured,” but clearly they’re a very deep team. Head coach Steve Kerr challenged his players after the loss to the Pacers and with Curry sidelined until at least the first round, the rest of the team will be expected to pick up the slack. And here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. I’m expecting a beatdown from start to finish, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-18 | Blue Jays -120 v. Rangers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8:05 EST). Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. One of these pitchers had a poor season opening start, while the other exceeded expectations. The visitors hand the ball to ace Marcus Stroman (0-0, 7.20 ERA) who was fortunate to receive a no-decision against the Yanks in his season debut after allowing four runs over five innings. I don’t think there’s any need to over-react to one bad start though and I expect Stroman to settle down here now that he’s left the microscope in Toronto. Note that he was 6-3 with a 3.72 ERA on the road last year and 9-6 with a 2.59 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Mike Minor (0-1, 3.86), who gave up two runs off three hits and two walks with five strikeouts over 4.2 innings in a loss to Houston on Sunday. It was a decent outing for Minor, who went 6-6 with a 2.55 ERA as a reliever last year. Note though that Minor needed 93 pitches to get 14 outs in the short outing, which I think foreshadows imminent/immediate regression. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in my opinion, the value is simply too great to turn down in this matchup, as I believe the oddsmakers have given Minor much too much respect. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-18 | Reds +120 v. Pirates | 7-4 | Win | 120 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:05 EST). I like Sal Romano to match Pittsburgh’s Chad Kuhl inning for inning on Saturday night and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the underdog. The Reds hand the ball to Romano (0-1, 4.50 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with two K’s over six innings in a loss to Washington on Sunday. Romano has control issues, but high 90’s heat. Note that he posted a very respectable 3.98 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Kuhl (1-0, 6.35) who earned the win against the Tigers in his season debut despite getting shelled for four runs off eight hits and four K’s over 5.2 innings on Sunday. Kuhl was horrible during his Spring training, posting a 10.06 ERA and 2.06 WHIP over 17 innings and clearly that’s been carried over into the regular season. Romano offers great value here, as I expect the second year pro to continue his progression and to come out on top over his volatile counterpart. Play on Cincinnati. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-18 | Islanders v. Red Wings -131 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -131 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Red Wings (7:00 EST). New York comes in off the 2-1 home win over the Rangers, while Detroit enters off a 4-3 home loss to the Habs. The Isles are 15-25 on the road this year, averaging 2.95 goals and conceding 3.45 in those contests. Goaltender Jaroslav Halak is 20-32 with a 3.19 GAA, including just 8-16 with a 3.17 GAA on the road. The Wings are 16-24 at home, averaging 2.48 goals and conceding 2.83 in those contests. Netminder Jimmy Howard is 22-36 with a 2.85 GAA on the year, including 15-19 with a 2.64 GAA at home. The Islanders have been horrible on the road and they come in off a satisfying victory over their main rival the Rangers. There’s no doubt that this sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors in this meaningless contest. Detroit comes in off a loss and would love nothing more than to give the home town fans a victory to end the season. I’m banking on the Red Wings being the much “hungrier” team tonight. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-18 | Dodgers -150 v. Giants | 5-7 | Loss | -150 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers (4:05 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (1-0, 0.00 ERA), who went six scoreless against these very Giants in his season debut on Sunday, walking three and striking out five. Hill doesn’t normally throw deep into games, but I still think he’ll have more than enough to out duel his counterpart this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Stratton (0-1, 5.06), who gave up three runs off five hits and who struck out four over 5.1 innings in a loss to these very Dodgers throwing opposite Hill last week. Stratton’s ERA was respectable last season, but his K/W of 51/28 and WHIP (1.48), both left something to be desired. I think Hill is the correct call here. Stratton struggled against the Dodgers in his first start and it’s not going to get any easier here. Until Stratton can prove himself, I’m completely unconvinced. Lay the price, play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-18 | Cubs -139 v. Brewers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (4:05 EST). Yu Darvish (0-0, 10.38 ERA) wasn’t signed for approximately $110 million dollars to be horrible, but he looked pretty bad in his debut for the Cubs against Miami by getting shelled for five earned runs off five hits and two walks, while striking out four over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision. I don’t think there’s any need to overreact here after one poor start from Darvish though, who posted a 2.79 ERA over 19.1 spring innings. The home side counters with Zach Davies (0-1, 9.53), who comes in off an even worse effort than Darvish in his debut, giving up seven runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to St. Louis on Monday. Hard to properly judge either of these starters after their respective poor opening performances, however Davies also had a pretty pedestrian spring compared to Darvish. As mentioned off the top, the moral of the story behind this particular play is to not “overreact.” All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price. Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-18 | Mets v. Nationals -155 | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (1:05 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Steven Matz (0-1, 6.75 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits and three walks over four innings in a loss to St. Louis on Sunday. Matz was just 2-7 with a 6.08 ERA overall last year and he was particularly poor in this position by going 0-2 with a 20.25 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with Gio Gonzalez (1-0, 1.50), who looked sharp in holding Cincinnati to one run off five hits and a walk with seven K’s over six innings in the victory in his season debut. Gonzalez is coming off perhaps the best campaign of his career and he was very effective in this spot by going 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA in all “day” games last year. The Nationals’ bats have been a disappointment for the most part to open the season, but Gonzalez remains a bright spot on the mound. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I absolutely feel that Gonzalez is well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. Play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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04-06-18 | A's v. Angels -140 | Top | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST). Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Gossett (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who was rocked for four runs off six hits and two walks over four innings in a loss to these very Angels on Sunday. Gossett posted a horrible 6.11 ERA and 1.61 WHIP with Oakland last year and note that he was particularly poor on the road, going just 3-7 with a ballooned 6.14 ERA. The home side counters with Parker Bridwell, who will make his first start of the year, after going 10-3 with a 3.64 ERA last season. Note that Bridwell was particularly effective in this spot last year, going 6-2 with a 3.67 ERA in all “night” contests. The Angels are mashing the ball early, which doesn’t bode well for Gossett. I think Bridwell will easily out duel his volatile counterpart and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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04-06-18 | Blues -152 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the St. Louis Blues (8:30 EST). This is the second game of a home and home set and Chicago took the first one 4-3. Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time for the Blues tonight. St. Louis has lost four in a row and it sits one game out of eighth spot in the Western Conference. This is a big game for the Blues. St. Louis averages 2.71 GPG and it concedes 2.70. Goaltender Jake Allen is 27-27 with a 2.74 GAA on the year, including 13-13 with a 2.83 GAA on the road. Chicago averages 2.88 GPG and it concedes 3.08. Netminder Jean-Francois Berube is 3-6 with a 3.84 GAA overall and 2-3 with a 3.10 GAA at home. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is still 41-18 in its last 59 road games against a team with a losing home record, while Chicago is just 3-13 in its last 16 following a victory. While Chicago would love to play “spoiler,” I simply don’t think that’ll be enough motivation for the home side today. This is a “do or die” game for the Blues and I expect them to play like it. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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04-06-18 | Pacers v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 73-92 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Raptors (7:30 EST). Indiana looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after thrashing the Pacers 126-106 last night, while I believe Toronto builds off its 96-78 win over the Celtics. If recent history is any precedence, then Toronto has to be loving its chances today, as it’s already taken two of three in the season series, including a 106-99 victory on the road in the latest matchup on March 15th. Indiana averages 105.7 PPG and it concedes 104. Victor Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 23.4 points, plus 5.3 boards and 2.33 steals per game, but it was Bojan Bogdanovic who led the Pacers with 28 points in the win over Golden State. Toronto averages 112 PPG and it concedes 104.2. DeMar DeRozan leads the way with 23.3 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.3 points, 5.6 boards and 6.8 assists per night. DeRozan led the way in the defensive victory over Boston with 16 points. I’ll point out that Indiana is still just 18-26 ATS the last two seasons in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Toronto is 17-12 ATS this year following a win by ten points or more Indiana hasn’t been the best road team this year and it comes in off an epic win at home over the defending champs just last night. Can anyone say letdown spot? The Raptors on the other hand are looking to make up some ground after recent shoddy play and they won’t be taking anything for granted here. Fatigue is a very real factor at this time of year and the second game of a back to back North of the border spells doom for the Pacers in my opinion. Lay the points, play on the Raptors. Good luck…Larry |
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04-06-18 | Braves v. Rockies -150 | 8-3 | Loss | -150 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (4:10 EST). The visitors turn to Brandon McCarthy (1-0, 3.38 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and three walks over 5.1 innings while also striking out five in what turned out to be a 15-2 win over Philadelphia on Saturday. The veteran right-hander was 6-4 with a respectable 3.84 ERA last year, but if he had one clear weakness it was his performance in all road games, posting a pedestrian 4.67 ERA. The home side counters with German Marquez (0-0, 0.00) who gave up one unearned run off four hits with four walks while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Marquez was 11-7 with a 4.39 ERA overall last year, including 4-2 with a 3.41 ERA in all “day” games and 6-3 with a 4.59 ERA at home (which is significant at Coors.) I think Marquez will outlast his counterpart today and that’s going to make all the difference once it’s all said and done. Lay the price, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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04-05-18 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 212 | Top | 95-117 | Push | 0 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the UNDER between the LA Clippers and the Utah Jazz. The Clippers are in Utah on Thursday night and in my opinion, everything points to more of a defensive battle than a high-scoring shootout. LA has won five of its last eight and it needs to continue to win if it has any hopes of making the playoffs. So far the Clippers average 109.3 PPG and they concede 108.4. Lou Williams averages 22.7 points and 5.3 assists per game, while DeAndre Jordan adds 12.4 points and 15.4 boards a game. Utah is equally as hungry here though as it looks to improve its playoff positioning. It also comes in on top form having won 12 of its last 15. The Jazz average only 103.8 PPG, but they make up for it on the defensive end by conceding just 100.2. Donovan Mitchell has been a standout all year by averaging 20.4 points and 3.6 assists per night. I’ll point out as well that LA has already seen the total go under the number in nine of 13 this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Utah has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of nine already this season after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” This one should have a playoff like atmosphere. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-05-18 | Penguins v. Blue Jackets -125 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -125 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 EST). Pittsburgh enters off a 3-1 home loss to Washington, while Columbus comes in off a 5-4 OT win at home over Detroit. These teams are in a fight for second place in the division, each coming in with 96 points. Clearly this is a big game for both teams, but I don’t think that the home ice advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this one. The Penguins have a “cream puff” at home against the Senators up next, so it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the visitors in some small way also getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. Pittsburgh’s achilles heel all year has been its play on the road anyways, going just 16-24 away from friendly confines, allowing 2.9 goals and conceding 3.35 in those contests. Pens’ net minder Matt Murray is 26-19 with a 2.90 GAA on the year. Columbus is 26-14 at home, averaging 2.73 goals and conceding 2.3 in those contests. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is 37-27 with a 2.38 GAA this season. I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 13-14 (-5.1 units) this year after a divisional contest, while Columbus is 16-9 (+5.1 units) after allowing four goals or more. The Blue Jackets enter the final few games on top form, winners in 13 out of their last 15 and I look for them to ride that momentum to another solid victory against the Penguins at home. Great value, play on Columbus. Good luck…Larry |
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04-05-18 | Mariners -114 v. Twins | 2-4 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (4:10 EST). The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (0-1, 11.57 ERA), who gave up six earned runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Indians on Saturday, also striking out four. Paxton put together a career best campaign in 2017 and he had a decent spring showing, but clearly he was completely out of sorts in that one. Note that Paxton was 5-2 with a 3.66 ERA on the road last year and 4-1 with a 1.49 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with Kyle Gibson (1-0, 0.00), who went six scoreless against the Orioles on Saturday, striking out six, but also walking five. Gibson had a decent spring as well, but I’ll point out that he was just 6-7 with a 5.72 ERA at home last year and just 3-7 with a 6.51 ERA in all day contests. For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think that Paxton has the advantage. The moral of the story here is to not over-react to one decent start, or to one poor one. Great value, play on the flame-thrower Paxton to bounce-back and the Seattle Mariners. Good luck…Larry |
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04-05-18 | Tigers v. White Sox -126 | 9-7 | Loss | -126 | 25 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago White Sox (4:10 EST). Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. The visitors hand the ball to confirmed “gas can” Jordan Zimmermann (0-0, 6.00 ERA), who was shelled for four earned runs off six hits while striking out eight in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Friday. Zimmermann was a big disappointment last year and he was particularly poor in this spot by going just 3-6 with a 5.53 ERA on the road. The home side counters with James Shields (1-0, 6.00), who gave up four runs off five hits and one walk over six innings in a fortunate victory over the Royals on Thursday. Zimmermann’s struggles have been greater than Shields have been, especially on the road. I’m giving Shields the slight nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side here in my opinion. Great price, play on the White Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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