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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-28-18 | Mariners -135 v. Orioles | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Mariners (3:05 EST). Seattle held on for an 8-7 win yesterday and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon on Thursday as well. The visitors go with Mike Leake (8-4, 4.11 ERA) who went eight scoreless against the Red Sox on Saturday, striking out five and allowing just three hits. Over his last 49.2 innings of work Leake has allowed only 12 earned runs. Note that he’s been particularly sharp on the road as well this season by going 5-1 with a 3.89 ERA. The home side counters with Jimmy Yacabonis (0-0, 15.43) who over 23 career innings in the big leagues as strictly a reliever has posted a 5.48 ERA and nine strikeouts. His numbers look sharp in Triple-A, but so far that success has not translated or carried over into the majors in any way whatsoever. I’ll point out as well that Seattle is already 34-19 (+16.8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Baltimore is 13-37 (-23.8 units) against right-handed starters. All things considered, I think that Leake is being severely under-valued in this particular matchup. Lay the price, play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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06-28-18 | Twins -130 v. White Sox | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Minnesota Twins (2:10 EST). The Twins came up short in yesterday’s 6-1 defeat as a -150 favorite, but I think the visiting side will bounce back here in this favorable matchup on the mound. The visitors go with Jake Odorizzi (3-5, 4.97 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rangers on Saturday, allowing six runs over 1.2 innings. Odorizzi has struggled of late, but note that he’s consistently been at his best in all day games with a respectable 3.57 ERA this season. And here’s the perfect opponent to get back on track against, as Lucas Giolito (5-7, 7.01) has been a complete “gas can” from the start this season. Giolito earned a win last time out despite allowing four runs off seven hits over six innings. Giolito has looked a bit better of late, but the Tigers and A’s line-ups leave something to be desired. Note the he owns a poor 6.99 ERA in all day games this year. Also note that Minnesota is still 16-12 (+3 units) this season against divisional opponents, while Chicago is only 12-24 (-10.4 units) against the division. I’m banking on Odorrizi bouncing back here and for the revenge-minded Twins to do the rest. Lay the price, play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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06-28-18 | Belgium +190 v. England | Top | 1-0 | Win | 190 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* WINNER is on Belgium (2:00 EST). These two sides have found the back of the net at a prolific rate to open the 2018 World Cup, but to this point neither has really been challenged. That’s about to change on Thursday though. Belgium comes in on a 21 match unbeaten streak dating to 2016, while England is on a 12-game unbeaten run. Belgium most recently beat Tunisia 5-2, while England got the better of Panama 6-1. Top spot is up for grabs in Group G, but for a number of different reasons, I think the Belgians have the advantage. Harry Kane had two goals for the Three Lions in their opening win against Tunisia and then he notched a hat-trick against Panama. Kane though will figure to have a much more difficult time against the Belgians World class backend Thursday afternoon. England has a notorious history of struggling in the “big games,” and it also has had difficulty against other European nations, as the last Euro team it played it would draw 1-1 with Italy at Wembley in March. Romelu Lukaku is rolling for Belgium as well, as he netted two goals against both Panama and Tunisia. Over his last seven appearances for the Belgians he’s posted ten goals. As good as England has looked, I think it’s going to falter against this other European heavyweight. Belgium has won six of its last seven matches and it hasn’t lost since 2016. Belgium took care of Tunisia much easier than England did as well, as the Three Lions needed an extra time goal from Kane to secure the victory. The “step up” in competition proves to be too much for England in my opinion this time around. The Three Lions have already moved onto the next round, but Belgium is out to send a message on Thursday. Good luck…Larry |
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06-27-18 | Indians v. Cardinals -109 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (9*) (8:15 EST). St. Louis scored the decisive 11-2 victory over Corey Kluber and the Indians yesterday and I think the home side offers great value to do it again on Wednesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Shane Bieber (2-0, 2.45 ERA) who gave up four hits over seven scoreless in a win over Detroit on Friday. Bieber has looked sharp in his limited time as a starter for the Tribe, but clearly he faces a stiff test here on the road in this inter-league format. The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (3-2, 2.50) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Brewers on Friday, allowing one run off one hit with 13 K’s over seven innings. Flaherty comes in with a strong 68/16 K/W over 57.2 innings of work and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry over that momentum here against the Indians’ “on again, off again” line-up. Flaherty is holding his opposition to a .201 batting average and I think he’s going to easily out duel his still untested counterpart. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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06-27-18 | Twins -145 v. White Sox | 1-6 | Loss | -145 | 30 h 52 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (8*) (8:10 EST). The White Sox scored the minor upset in yesterday’s 8-4 win over the Twins, but I think the visitors will bounce back here in what sets up as a favorable matchup on the mound for them. Minnesota hands the ball to Kyle Gibson (2-5, 3.25 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings with five K’s in a loss to the Red Sox on Thursday. Gibson’s win/loss record is not indicative at all of the way he’s been playing of late though. While he’s lost three of his last four, he’s posted a strong 2.20 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP over his last five trips to the hill. The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (2-9, 4.59) who was most recently rocked for eight runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to the A’s on Friday. Note that the veteran has struggled across the board and is just 1-5 with a 4.31 ERA at home. I’ll point out as well, despite the loss yesterday the Twins are still 16-11 (+4.2 units) against the division this season, while the White Sox are just 11-24 (-11.6 units) against the division this year. I like Gibson to come in focused and to out duel his inconsistent counterpart. All things considered, I think a very fair price on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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06-27-18 | Padres v. Rangers -131 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8*) (8:05 EST). The Padres took the opener of this series 3-2 last night, but I think the home side will bounce back here. Two veteran pitchers come into this one red hot, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Clayton Richard (7-6, 4.23 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits over six innings while striking out four and walking none in a win over the Giants on Friday. Richard owns a 2.77 ERA over four June starts. Note that he’s 5-5 with a 4.50 ERA in all night games this season. The home side counters with Mike Minor (5-4, 5.06) who has won three straight June starts behind a 3.46 ERA, most recently allowing one earned run with three K’s over six innings against the Twins on Friday. While his ERA is nothing to write home about, note that he does own a respectable 1.26 WHIP over 78.1 innings of work. Note as well that he’s 3-2 with a 3.94 ERA at home so far. While Texas is just 3-3 in interleague games this season, over the last three years it’s 30-16 (+13.2 units) in that department. The Padres are just 15-31 (-9.8 units) in interleague contests in the same span, including a horrible 1-7 (-6 units) this season. I’m looking for the hard-hitting home side to answer after yesterday’s lacklustre effort. Play on the Rangers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-27-18 | Diamondbacks -152 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST). Robbie Ray returns from an extended stint on the DL to a favorable matchup in Miami and I think the hard-throwing southpaw will make the most of it. Ray (2-0, 4.88 ERA) made two re-hab starts and was scheduled to make three, but an injury to Clay Buchholz likely bumped him up. Regardless, he’s been cleared to go tonight and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to put out an efficient outing. In his final rehab on Tuesday he’d give up three runs (one earned) over 4.1 innings while also striking out nine. Note that Ray was dominant on the road last year by going 8-1 with a 1.86 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Wei-Yin Chen (2-4, 6.70) who most recently was crushed for seven earned runs off nine hits over four innings in a blowout loss to Colorado on Friday. Chen has in fact been a lot better at home (2-1, 2.53) than on the road (1-4, 9.85), but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA in all night games. The Diamondbacks are 21-18 (+5.6 units) on the road this year, while the Marlins are just 15-21 (-1.6 units) at home. I think Ray finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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06-27-18 | Germany -1.5 v. South Korea | 0-2 | Loss | -167 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Germany -1.5 goals (10:00 AM EST). Germany’s been a major disappointment to this point of the tournament. The 2014 World Champs looked great in qualifying and in the international friendlies leading up, but an inexplicable 1-0 loss to El Tri in their opener, followed by a close 2-1 win over Sweden has done nothing to ease the nerves of the German faithful. But here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against, as Korea offers little resistance in the back, coupled with an impotent attack up front. South Korea lost 1-0 to Sweden in its opening game and then 2-1 to Mexico in its second. Son Heung-min would score the only goal, but Korea will be out of the World Cup moving forward despite what happens today. Toni Kroos delivered a miracle for the German’s in injury time against the Swedes, and it’s a spark like that which I believe can ignite the flame of the underachieving champions. A victory today would guarantee Germany a spot in the Round of 16 and I think it’ll finally step up here and deliver the goods with a trade-mark effort. Note as well that Germany has won all five of its World Cup matches against Asian opponents, scoring 19 goals in total and keeping a clean sheet in each of the last three. I’m expecting a rout of epic proportions. Lay the 1.5 goals for the reasonable mid-sized price. Good luck…Larry |
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06-26-18 | Rockies +111 v. Giants | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Colorado Rockies (10:15 EST). I think the Rockies have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup. Granted, Chad Bettis (5-1, 5.23 ERA) has been consistently inconsistent all year for Colorado, but he catches a break here going up against Derek Holland and avoiding a home start as well. Bettis enters off an outing to forget against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing eight runs on nine hits over 4.2 innings. But as mentioned above, while he’s 0-0 with an 8.75 ERA at home, Bettis is a “lights out” 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA on the road. Holland (5-7, 4.48) gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out seven over six innings against Miami on Wednesday. Holland has been hit or miss this year, especially with his play at home where he comes in sporting a 2-2, 5.34 ERA record thus far. I’ll point out as well that Colorado is a solid 30-21 (+8.7 units) in all night games so far this season, while the Giants are just 22-28 (-4.8 units) in the same position. Everything points to a minor upset in the opener of this series. Play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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06-26-18 | Pirates v. Mets -120 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST). I think the home side will bounce back after yesterday’s 6-4 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Chad Kuhl (5-5, 4.56 ERA) who most recently was rocked for eight runs off eight hits and a walk in 9-3 loss to the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Kuhl would only strike out two, while also allowing two home runs. Kuhl has for the most part been solid overall this season, but I’ll point out that he’s still only 3-3 with a 6.04 ERA in all night games to this point. The home side counters with Steven Matz (3-5, 3.68) who gave up five runs over 5.2 innings in a 6-4 loss to Colorado on Thursday. It was the most runs that he’s given up in any start this year, so I don’t think there’s any need to overreact to one poor effort. Matz has a 3-2, 3.47 ERA in all night games as well. Both teams have underwhelmed this season, but Matz at home at this price is the correct call in my opinion. Look for the revenge-minded Mets to deliver the goods on Tuesday night. Good luck…Larry |
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06-26-18 | Mariners -145 v. Orioles | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (7:05 EST). One of these starters has been consistent all season, while the other for the most has struggled across the board. After their 5-3 win in the opener of this three game series, I think that James Paxton and the visiting Seattle Mariners will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night on Tuesday as well. Paxton (6-2, 3.72 ERA) comes in off a loss against the Yanks on Thursday, giving up four runs over five innings of work, while also going on to strikeout nine. Paxton though would allow two home runs and three walks. That’s back-to-back shaky outings against two of the league’s most prolific clubs (Boston and then New York), but I think the big southpaw can bounce back in this favorable matchup tonight. Note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.56 ERA on the road this year. Gausman is 3-6 with a 4.38 ERA. Gausman gave up two runs off four walks and four hits over six innings in a loss to the Nationals on Thursday. Gausman is winless since early May and note that he’s only 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. Additionally note that Seattle is 23-13 (+4.2 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Baltimore is just 9-30 (-16.7 units) against teams with winning records. I think Paxton bounces back and the hard-hitting Mariners do the rest. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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06-26-18 | France +128 v. Denmark | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on France (10:00 AM EST). I think the French come out and play their best game of the Tournament so far and find a way to claim all three points in the end. Denmark has four points, while France has six. The Danes beat Peru 1-0, before then drawing with Australia 1-1. Note though that Yussuf Poulsen, who scored against Peru, received his second yellow card against the Aussies, meaning that he’ll be forced to sit this one out with France. France is deep and it’s 2-0 so far, but it’s much hyped offense has yet to hit its stride. With the likes of Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappe, Olivier Giroud, Nabil Fekir, and Ousmane Dembele, expect a much more concerted effort from the French this evening. It wasn’t a cake walk for France to get to this point, but it’s still managed to find a way to get the job done and I think it’ll have more than enough to claim a full three from the Danes. Denmark has lost four of its last five World Cup games to fellow European countries and everything points to another setback here as well. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price on an underachieving, but extremely talented French team that looks poised for a breakout performance. Good luck…Larry |
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06-25-18 | Reds v. Braves -145 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 27 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (8*) (7:35 EST). The Reds come in off an 8-6 win at home over the Cubs yesterday and now hit the road for a tough series in Atlanta. The Braves were at home yesterday afternoon and they’d pull away for a convincing 7-3 win over the Orioles. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (6-6, 3.89 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings. For the most part Mahle has been solid, but if he’s had one area weakness it’s been his play in all “night” games, where he’s just 3-3 with a 4.87 ERA. The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (5-4, 2.16) who returns from a very short stop on the ten-day DL due to shoulder inflammation. Foltynewicz threw a bullpen session and has been cleared to go and so far he’s 3-3 with a 2.19 ERA in all night games and 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA at home. I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is just 18-27 (-5.4 units) in all night games, while Atlanta is 26-23 (+2.3 units) in the same position. Atlanta has been one of the biggest surprises this year and I don’t foresee an upset. For arguments sakes, lets call these pitchers a “wash.” This matchup definitely favors the hard-hitting home side and I think it’s well worth the price of admission. Play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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06-25-18 | Indians v. Cardinals +117 | 0-4 | Win | 117 | 30 h 46 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (9*) (8:15 EST). Both teams come in off victories. The Tribe won 12-2 at home over the Tigers, while the Cards took care of business on the road in Milwaukee 8-2. For a number of different reasons though, i think this one favors the home side. The Indians hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (6-2, 3.00 ERA) who gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the anemic White Sox on Tuesday. Clevinger has been sharp overall this season and it’s basically impossible to say too many negative things about him, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that this is going to be a tough matchup, considering he’ll be playing under National League rules. The home side counters with John Gant (1-2, 4.39) who has made seven appearances for the big club this year. Note that Gant owned a sharp 2.25 ERA in all home games last season. Additionally I’ll point out that Cleveland is just 4-9 (-9.5 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while St. Louis is 9-5 (+3.8 units) at home when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. I look for St. Louis to find a way to take the opener of this interleague contest. Play on the Cards. Good luck…Larry |
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06-25-18 | Mariners -137 v. Orioles | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (8*) (7:05 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side. The Mariners hand the ball to Felix Hernandez (6-6, 5.14 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Yanks on Wednesday, giving up two runs (just one earned) off six hits with a walk while striking out six over five innings. Hernandez induced 17 swinging strikes and he’s now conceded just two earned runs while posting a sharp 12/2 K/W over his last 12 innings of work spanning two starts (and that was against New York and Boston.) The home side counters with the volatile Andrew Cashner (2-8, 4.72) who returned from the DL to post a decent outing, going four shutout innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Wednesday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Cashner this season and unfortunately a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s so far a poor 0-5 with a 5.22 ERA. Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle has done extremely well in this spot all year, going 33-16 (+15.3 units) in all night games, while Baltimore is just 14-32 (-16.3 units) in the same position. I like Hernandez to carry over his momentum, while everything points to regression for the streaky Cashner in my opinion. Lay the price, play on the Mariners. Good luck…Larry |
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06-25-18 | Yankees -138 v. Phillies | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST). The Yankees fell 7-6 in Tampa Bay last night, while the Phillies took two of three in Washington over the weekend, but enter off a tough 8-6 loss on Sunday night baseball. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side. New York goes with Jonathan Loaisiga (1-0, 3.12 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with two walks while striking out four over 3.2 innings in a no-decision to Seattle on Wednesday. Loaisiga shut down the Rays in his debut though and so far he’s shown tremendous potential. The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.82) who comes in off a no-decision to the Cards on Tuesday, allowing four runs over 6.1 innings of work. Velasquez though has consistently been at his worst at home this year, sporting a poor 3-4, 6.70 ERA record in Philadelphia. I’ll point out as well that New York is already 12-6 (+2.6 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Philadelphia is just 18-32 (-5.9 units) in its last 50 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. I’m banking on the hard-hitting visiting side to find a way to get the job done in this favorable matchup. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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06-25-18 | Portugal -139 v. Iran | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -139 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Portugal (2:00 EST). Iran has taken advantage of the opportunities presented to it so far and it’s been stout defensively. I don’t think that it’s going to amount to much though facing a Portugal team that will be pushing hard from start to finish. Iran’s victory over Morocco was its first World Cup win since beating the USA in the 1998 event. It nearly equalized against Spain, but a late VAR judging disallowed its late-goal last time out. Portugal’s draw with Spain means that it’s one point head of Iran after it fell 1-0 to the Spanish. A draw works in favor of the Portuguese this afternoon, but I don’t think that Christiano Ronaldo and company will be leaving anything to chance. Ronaldo appears to be on a mission, carrying his team on his back while also leading the tournament in goals scored to this point. Alireza Jahanbakhsh leads Iran, but so far his side has been pretty impotent up front. Jahanbakhsh made two hat tricks in the last two months leading up, earning him the Golden Boot, which no other Asian player had achieved in a top Euro league. However, that success has so far not translated onto the World Cup whatsoever. One other player to keep your eyes open for today for Portugal other than Rinaldo is Goncala Guedes, who has had a strong tournament and who had two goals in the final warm-up victory over Algeria. Iran is challenged offensively already (has only two shots on target in its two matches at the World Cup so far), which clearly doesn’t bode well facing a Portugal side which has kept three clean sheets in its last four fixtures. I have a hard time seeing Iran mustering any sort of offensive attack whatsoever. Iran has been stout defensively, but I expect it to wear down as the game winds on. This line could easily be much higher in my opinion. Play on Portugal. Good luck…Larry |
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06-24-18 | Phillies v. Nationals -110 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Nationals (8:05 EST). Philadelphia has taken the first two games of this series, but I think that the Nationals will bounce back in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Pivetta (4-6, 4.08 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits over 7.1 innings in a no-decision against St. Louis. Pivetta has been decent this year and it’s hard to find too many faults, I simply believe that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The home side counter with Jefry Rodriguez (0-0, 4.66) who gave up five earned runs over five innings against Baltimore on Tuesday. Rodriguez’s only other appearance in the big leagues was a 4.2 scoreless innings effort against the Braves. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is just 8-14 (-6 units) on the road this year when the money line is set between +125 to -125, while Washington is 19-14 (+4.4 units) at home when the money line is between +125 and -125. I’m banking on the revenge minded home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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06-24-18 | Marlins +153 v. Rockies | 8-5 | Win | 153 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (3:10 EST). Miami won 6-2 yesterday and I think it and Caleb Smith have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as well. Smith (5-6, 4.03 ERA) gave up four runs off six hits with two walks with four K’s over four innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. Note though that Smith enters with a highly respectable 3.46 ERA in all day games this year. The home side counters with the volatile German Marquez (5-7, 5.20) who gave up four runs off six hits over six innings in a win over the Mets on Tuesday. Marquez though has given up at least four runs in all four starts in June, posting a 7.77 ERA and conceding seven home runs over 22 innings in that span. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 7.45 ERA at home as well. Coors Field is the great equalizer for pitchers, but Smith comes in throwing much more consistent at this point. Everything points to another minor upset on Sunday afternoon. Play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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06-24-18 | Padres v. Giants -145 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST). The Giants held on for a 5-3 win yesterday and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors hand the ball to volatile Eric Lauer (3-4, 5.47 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in a no-decision to Oakland on Tuesday. The southpaw owns the poor ERA to go along with an atrocious .324 opponent batting average. Also note that Lauer has been at his worst on the road with a 1-2, 5.83 ERA record. The home side counters with Dereck Rodriguez (2-1, 4.56) who struck out six and walked zero in a victory over Miami on Tuesday, conceding three runs over five innings. So far Rodriguez owns a respectable 22/6 K/W over 23.2 innings of work. Note as well that Rodriguez has been at his best at home thus far with a 2-0, 3.27 ERA. Additionally I’ll point out that San Diego is already a poor 11-13 (-1.5 units) this year in all day games, while San Francisco is 17-11 (+10.5 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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06-24-18 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates -106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 EST). I had a play on Arizona last night, but I think the home side will bounce back in the finale of this three-game set and salvage getting swept. The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (1-1, 2.94 ERA) who gave up one earned run off four hits while striking out three over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Sunday. Buchholz has been solid in his limited time, but I simply think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The home side counters with Trevor Williams (6-4, 4.00) who comes in off a gem against Milwaukee on Monday, going seven scoreless and allowing only one hit to go along with seven K’s. Williams bounced back after a poor stretch and he’ll be looking to atone for a lacklustre effort against the Diamondbacks earlier in the year in which he allowed eight runs over three innings (just three earned.) I’ll point out though that Williams has been at his best at home by going 4-2 with a 3.65 ERA. I’m banking on Williams outdueling Buchholz and for the revenge minded home side to deliver the goods at the end of the afternoon. Play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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06-24-18 | Japan v. Senegal +135 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Senegal (11:00 AM EST). Both teams come in off opening game victories, claiming all three points. Japan shocked Colombia with a 2-1 victory, but it benefited greatly from an early red card which gave it the man-advantage. Shinji Kagwa scored his 31st goal for Japan in the win over Colombia as he and the rest of his team took advantage of Carlos Sanchez’s red card for deliberate handball. Japan would have a full 87 minutes against ten men and it would be too much for the Colombian’s to overcome in the end. Previous to that win though Japan had gone five matches without a victory, including three straight losses to Ukraine, Ghana and Switzerland. Senegal came up big in its 2-1 win over Poland. Mbaye Niang needed a touch of luck for his goal in the victory, but the striker is now off and running. Senegal has lost just one of its last 11 matches. Both of these teams played better than expected in their Game 1 victories and each took advantage of the circumstances presented to them. That said, the Japanese had an extra attacker for almost the entire game and I think it’s the only reason it pulled off the upset over Colombia. Senegal deserved its win over Poland and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here as well to earn another three points. Good luck…Larry |
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06-23-18 | Blue Jays v. Angels -122 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -122 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Angels (9:05 EST). While neither starter instills much confidence, I still think this one highly favors the home side. All things considered, in my opinion this is the very definition of “great line value.” The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Marcus Stroman (0-5, 7.71 ERA) who is being activated from the 10-day disabled list. Stroman threw a simulated game and has been given the green light here to try and improve upon his dismal start to the 2018 campaign. To go along with his ballooned 7.71 ERA, note that he also sports a poor 1.71 WHIP over 37.1 total innings of work. The Angels counter with Jaime Barria (5-3, 3.57) who comes in off an outing to forget against Arizona on Monday, allowing six runs off six hits and a walk with five K’s over four innings on Monday. Barria has been hurt by the long-ball of late, but note that he has a respectable 4-2, 3.79 ERA in all night games this year. I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 18-25 (-8 units) in all night games this season, while LA is 30-25 (+2.1 units) in the same position. Barria is the correct call here in my opinion. Stroman’s shown no consistency whatsoever this season and he’s hard to trust on the road on his first start off the DL. Great value, play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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06-23-18 | Mariners v. Red Sox -170 | 7-2 | Loss | -170 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (9*) (7:15 EST). I don’t normally play favorites of this size, but in my opinion Eduardo Rodriguez and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (7-4, 4.47 ERA) who was rocked for five earned runs off eight hits with one K in a setback to these very Red Sox last Sunday. Leake has probably been better than the Mariners could have asked for to this point, but he still has only 55 K’s over 92.2 innings of work. Also note that he’s 3-3 with a 4.95 ERA in all night games. Rodriguez (9-1, 3.59) was on the winning side of last Sunday’s result, giving up two earned runs off six hits while striking out nine and walking one in his team’s 9-3 victory. It was his sixth straight winning decision and he now comes in with a sharp 90/24 K/W over 77.2 innings. Note that he’s also 6-1 with a 3.88 ERA in all night games this year and 5-1 with a 3.61 ERA at home. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often recent form is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Rodriguez has another prime opportunity to pad his already impressive numbers. Lay the price, play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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06-23-18 | Dodgers v. Mets +120 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8*) (7:15 EST). I like the Mets to bounce back after yesterday’s 5-2 defeat and with their bonafide “ace” coming to the hill. The visitors counter with Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.76 ERA) who tossed a simulated game mid week and who will forgo his final rehab assignment to come directly off the ten-day DL. Kershaw’s last start came on May 31st against Philadelphia where he’d allow one earned run off four hits and one walk while striking out five over five innings. New York’s Jacob DeGrom (5-2, 1.51) is in Cy Young form right now, most recently allowing two runs (just one earned) off five hits and a walk with seven K’s over eight innings in a victory over Colorado on Monday. He’d pound the strike zone again, with 19 first-pitch strikes to 29 hitters. Note that he’s been at his best at home as well this season, going 2-1 with a minuscule 1.57 ERA. Kershaw has not looked “himself” so far this year and it’s hard to trust how long he’ll last in his first start off the DL. DeGrom has been a rock all season though and he’ll be particularly fired up because of this matchup. I think DeGrom carries over his incredible consistency for at least another outing. Great price, play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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06-23-18 | Diamondbacks -115 v. Pirates | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8*) (4:05 EST). I think Arizona will find a way to build off yesterday’s 2-1 victory. While I don’t ever normally “flip flop” on a team (take one team one night, and then come back with the other in the following game), MLB is the one sport where each contest must be examined individually, because of the starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (6-5, 3.90 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits with two walks to go along with five K’s over 6.1 innings in a win over the Angels on Monday. Greinke had struggled previous to this decent outing, but he now certainly appears back on track. The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (2-2, 3.68) who was rocked for six runs off eight hits with one walk over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. Musgrove’s early numbers were impressive, but unsustainable in my opinion. While he still owns a sharp 17/2 K/W over his last three starts, I think that further regression is imminent. Note as well that Arizona is already 23-15 (+7.2 units) this year against teams with losing records, while Pittsburgh is already just 15-20 (-3.3 units) against clubs with winning records. I like the surging D-Backs to find a way to get the job done here behind Greinke. Good luck…Larry |
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06-23-18 | South Korea v. Mexico -142 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Mexico (11:00 AM EST). Many may predict that Mexico will have a letdown here after its historic opening game victory over Germany. However, I am not one of those people. In fact, I think El Tri can smell the blood in the water, as they’ll look to take firm control of this group with a convincing victory over the impotent Korean attack. Mexico got a goal from Hirving Lozano, and then it clamped down on the defensive side, stymying the prolific German attack completely. What hope does the Korean Republic have after being held without a single shot on net in its 1-0 loss to Sweden? Heung Min-Son looked very average overall for Korea and while the Asian side didn’t make it easy on Sweden, it’s impossible for me to see them mustering any sort of semblance of an offensive attack against the Mexican’s stout back line. And to add insult to injury, Korea will be without the services of key figure, full-back Park Joo-Joo,who sustained a hard hit in the loss to Sweden. Mexico on the other hand comes in at full health and it’s expected to field the exact same line-up which took care of business against the defending World Cup champions. When you add it all up, I absolutely believe that we’re getting fantastic line value in this one. Lay the price, play on Mexico. Good luck…Larry |
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06-22-18 | Hamilton +7 v. Edmonton | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* CFL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Hamilton Tigercats (10:00 EST). The Ti-Cats were competitive in their 28-14 loss in Calgary last week and we think they’ll keep this one tight as well. QB Jeremiah Masoli had 344 yards passing and a rushing TD and that performance was good enough to keep backup QB Johnny Manziel sidelined for another week. Hamilton went out signed former New Orleans Saints CB Delvin Breaux this week, and they’ll be hoping to a return to form after recent injuries. Edmonton had its hands full in last week’s come from behind 33-30 win at Winnipeg. Mike Reilly had a big game with 408 yards, a TD, while also rushing for two scores. Receiver Derel Walker had eight catches for 176 yards, including a 101 yard TD reception. Note though that three starters were lost in the victory, including left tackle Tommie Draheim, linebacker Adam Konar and defensive tackle Mike Moore. I’ll point out as well that Hamilton is 8-2 ATS in its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Edmonton is just 4-13 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite in the same points range. With a game at home to BC next week, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking past” its lowly non-conference opponent. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do think that Hamilton will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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06-22-18 | Tigers +178 v. Indians | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST). Both teams come in off a night of rest. Ultimately I think that Mike Fiers and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup. Fiers (5-3, 4.09 ERA) most recently allowed three runs with four K’s over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the White Sox on Friday. While clearly not perfect, Fiers has for the most part been as solid as the Tigers could have possibly asked for this season. He’ll now look to improve upon his 2-2, 4.55 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Shane Bieber (1-0, 3.97) who was called up to make a start on Sunday against the Twins. Bieber looked decent in that outing, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie. The Indians may have the advantage at the plate, but I firmly believe that Fiers is the correct call in this matchup. It’s certainly fantastic value on the determined veteran. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Tigers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-22-18 | Cubs -134 v. Reds | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -134 | 27 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST). After falling 6-2 yesterday, I like the Cubbies to bounce back on Friday night in what sets up as a favorable matchup on the mound for them. The visitors turn to Jose Quintana (6-5, 4.06 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off four hits over five innings, with three strikeouts in what turned out to be a loss to the Cards on Sunday. It was Quintana’s fourth straight start though in which he’s given up two or fewer earned runs. While his ERA is pedestrian, note that he comes in sporting a respectable 1.33 WHIP. Note as well that while he’s a poor 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA at home, Quintana is a super 4-3 with a 2.78 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the volatile Luis Castillo (4-8, 5.77) who allowed three runs off six hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to the Pirates on Saturday. It marked his fourth straight loss. Over his last 20.2 innings of work, Castillo has conceded a combined 16 runs. The Cubs have performed well in this spot for bettors all year as well, going 8-4 (+2.6 units) as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range. Conversely, this is a position in which the Reds have struggled in mightily all season, going a horrible 1-7 (-5.7 units) in all home games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. In my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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06-22-18 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates +108 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). After yesterday’s humbling 9-3 defeat, I think the Pirates bounce back on Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (6-3, 3.48 ERA) who was most recently rocked for eight runs off eight hits with two walks over six innings in a loss to the Mets on Saturday. Corbin was arguably the best pitcher in the entire league after the first month of the year, but clearly his early numbers were unsustainable, as note that he’s now conceded 17 earned runs over his last 23.2 innings spanning his last four trips to the hill. The hungry home side counters with Ivan Nova (4-5, 4.42) who looked sharp in a win over the Reds on Saturday, allowing one run off five hits with three walks while striking out three over six innings. Since returning from the DL, Nova has looked great, allowing two runs over 11.2 innings of work. Note that Nova comes is sporting the respectable 3.48 ERA at home as well so far this year. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Corbin suggests that he has another long night ahead of him against these revenge minded Pirates, while everything points to Nova continuing his consistent production in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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06-22-18 | Nigeria v. Iceland | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is the “draw” between Iceland and Nigeria (11:00 AM EST). These are two teams hungry for an outright victory, but I’m predicting these sides to play to an even “draw.” Nigeria now has its back against the wall after falling 2-0 to Croatia in its opener. This is an important one for Iceland as well. Iceland managed to post an improbable 1-1 draw against Argentina in its opener and while It’ll also be looking for a win here, another “draw” wouldn’t be the end of the World for it either. Nigeria posted an unfortunate “own goal” in the first half last week, which clearly had a mental effect on the Super Eagles moving forward. And one has to wonder if the team will ever get over that opening setback? Iceland beat England in the 2016 Euros and it has continued to defy the odds since. After topping its World cup qualifying group, it looks poised to continue to re-write its nation’s history in its first ever World Cup tournament. Note that five of Iceland’s last six competitive games have seen fewer than three goals, which doesn’t bode well for this dejected Nigeria team in my opinion. It wasn’t all roses for Iceland though in its victory, as note that after posting eight shots in the first half against Argentina last week, it failed to register a single attempt over the second 45 minutes of play. Great value on what I predict to be a very even contest. Play the “draw.” Good luck…Larry |
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06-21-18 | Padres v. Giants -132 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10*) (10:15 EST). Madison Bumgarner has pitched twice since returning from injury and while he hasn’t looked dominant, he’s been decent. Suffice it to say, I think the veteran southpaw will get off the schneid this evening though and out duel his younger counterpart. The Padres hand the ball to Tyson Ross (5-4, 3.51 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off three hits and one walk while striking out four over six innings to the Braves on Thursday. Ross has been as good as San Diego could possibly ask for, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Bumgarner (0-2, 4.67) gave up three runs with three K’s over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. While he has just nine strikeouts over his first 17.2 innings of work, note that he’d finish with a decent 3.40 ERA in all home games last year. There’s no reason not to think that Bumgarner won’t be able to carry over his progression for this first win of the season. And he faces a perfect opponent as well, as the Padres have been much better at home than on the road this season (especially in manufacturing offensive production.) Additionally I’ll point out that San Diego just 8-12 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this year, while San Francisco is 20-12 (+6.7 units) in front of the home town crowd overall this season. I’m banking on Bumgarner to find a way to get the job done this evening and punch his first one into the win column. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 50 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Riders/Redblacks (7:30 EST). Two teams gunning for a victory on Thursday night in Week 2 of the Canadian Football League and in my opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring shootout. Ottawa would finish 8-9-1 last year, which was still good enough for second spot in the East Division. Ottawa though was just 3-5-1 at home in the regular season, an area in which it hopes to approve dramatically in in 2018, starting against the high-flying Roughriders. The Redblacks would ultimately fall to Saskatchewan 31-20 in the Eastern Semi-Final. Ottawa QB Trevor Harris though finished with 457 yards and two TD’s that day. Ottawa also lost to the Roughriders 18-17 in Week 15 of the regular season, but it got some small amount of revenge with a 33-32 victory on the road two weeks later. Harris finished tied for No. 1 with 30 TD strikes in 2017. The Roughriders looked sharp in their 27-19 win over Toronto at home as three point underdogs in Week 1. While the defense did look good at home, I think it’ll have its hands full here against an Ottawa team looking to make some noise on Opening night. Saskatchewan will once again be leaning heavily on QB Zach Collaros, who was 18 of 25 for 203 yards, a TD and no INT’s. RB Jerome Messam was a standout as well with 72 yards on 21 carries, while also catching two passes. I expect each team to open up the play book and for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game come down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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06-21-18 | Cubs -156 v. Reds | 2-6 | Loss | -156 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8*) (7:10 EST). I feel that Kyle Hendricks and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Hendricks (5-6, 3.55 ERA) most recently conceded three runs while striking out three over six innings in a victory over St. Louis on Saturday. Hendricks has been more susceptible to allowing the home run ball this year, but he should come in quite confident facing the anemic Reds. Note as well that Hendricks is 4-3 with a 3.79 ERA in all night games thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Matt Harvey (1-5, 5.92) who gave up three runs off four hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Friday. Harvey for the most part has struggled for his new team and note that he’s just 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA in all home games to this point. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is already 8-4 (+2.6 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while the Reds are a poor 1-7 (-5.7 units) this season as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. This is a mismatch on the mound. Lay the price, play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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06-21-18 | Australia v. Denmark +108 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Denmark (8:00 AM EST). Australia looked decent in its opening round match against France, but the Socceroos couldn’t match pace down the stretch and it would eventually succumb 2-1. Denmark didn’t look particularly good either in its opening match, but in the end it would take the 1-0 win over Peru. Denmark is loaded with talent, and I have a hard time seeing Australia mounting much of an offensive attack here. Keep your eyes on Denmark stars Nicolai Jorgensen, who finished his league campaign with Feyenoord with three goals in five games. Also Yussuf Poulsen, who notched the winning goal against Peru. Note that the Danes haven’t lost a full international match since 2016, a run of 15 games without defeat. Australia’s key players include Aaron Mooy, who directs the show in the middle, as well as goalkeeper Matthew Ryan, who made an impressive start with Brighton and Hove Albion in the Premier League. But as mentioned off the top, the Socceroos have struggled to find offensive production at times, which clearly doesn’t bode well in facing the stingy Danes who have not conceded a goal in their last five matches and who have only allowed three goals in their last 11. Denmark’s defensive form is unmatched right now and I think it’ll be the deciding factor here as well. Great value, play on the Danes. Good luck…Larry |
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06-20-18 | Cardinals +108 v. Phillies | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the St. Louis Cardinals (10:05 EST). I don’t normally “flip-flop” on a team (taking one team one day and then the following day/game playing the other side.) However, MLB comes down to the starting pitching and I’ve always been of the thought that each matchup has to be looked at individually. Michael Wacha comes in off his first crummy outing of the year for the Cards, but I think he’s going to bounce back here in this favorable matchup. Jake Arrieta started the season strong for his new team, but he’s been struggling over the last month and suffice it to say, I expect that trend to carry over here. Wacha (8-2, 3.24 ERA) was blasted for nine runs off seven hits in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. Three home runs were the difference. Outings like that have been few and far between for the big right-hander the last couple of years though, so there’s no reason to overreact to once lousy start. Despite the sub-par performance, note that Wacha still owns the respectable ERA, to go along with a solid 1.19 WHIP and elite level .213 opponent batting average. Note as well that Wacha comes in with the strong 3-1, 3.54 ERA road record. Arrieta (5-5, 3.33) comes in off a third straight setback, allowing eight runs off seven hits over 3.1 innings against the Brewers on Friday. Arrieta’s slide back to mediocrity has seen him given up 18 runs over his last three starts. Note that his 6.2 K/9 that he owns right now is a 2.5 point drop from his 2016/17 numbers. Something’s “wrong” with Arrieta and I don’t think that the right-hander will be able to just “flip a switch” and gets things turned around immediately. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Arrieta suggests that he’ll have another long night ahead of him here. I’m banking on Wacha taking advantage and getting back on track. Great value, play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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06-20-18 | Morocco v. Portugal -167 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 74 h 34 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Portugal (8:00 AM EST). Christiano Ronaldo stamped himself as the greatest player to ever play (in my professional opinion anyways) after scoring three goals himself in his team’s 3-3 tie with Spain. I believe Ronaldo is on a mission in this tournament and I look for the super star to play a big role in this one as well. Morocco will be desperate after falling 1-0 to Iran, but I still don’t think it’ll have have enough heart or skill to match pace with Portugal, who will also be eager to earn a full 3-points this time around. Spain was a -350 favorite approximately over Portugal and while the Spaniards did in fact control the overall pace of the opening game, Ronaldo was playing on an entirely different level. Ronaldo though refused to take any of the credit for the impressive draw: “I think the team played very well and is going to do well for sure,” he assessed afterwards. “We have to look to the next match now because our goal is to win.” Morocco dominated its opening match for the most part, but Aziz Bouhaddouz would accidentally head the ball into his own net and suffice it to say, I think the African country will still be mentally devastated coming into this one. A dejected and shaky Morocco side against a determined and focused Ronaldo? Franky, I think this line could easily be larger. In my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of great line value. Play on Portugal. Good luck…Larry |
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06-19-18 | Cardinals v. Phillies -121 | 7-6 | Loss | -121 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Luke Weaver (3-6, 4.52 ERA) who most recently was rocked for four runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to San Diego on Wednesday. Note that Weaver enters with the sub-par 3-3, 4.98 ERA record on the road to this point. The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.74) who gave up two runs off one hit and two walks while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over Colorado on Thursday. Velasquez would go on to post 13 swinging strikes in the dominant effort and I think the hard-throwing right-hander will carry that momentum over here. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is a poor 9-14 (-6 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125, while Philadelphia is a solid 12-9 (+1.9 units) when at home with a similarly ranged price. All things considered, great value on the home side in this one. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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06-19-18 | Mariners +150 v. Yankees | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (7:05 EST). I believe Marco Gonzalez and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Gonzalez (7-3, 3.42 ERA) gave up three runs while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision against the Angels on Wednesday. The southpaw would throw 61 of his 101 pitches for strikes and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. Note that Gonzalez has in fact been at his best this season away from friendly confines with a 5-2, 3.29 ERA record thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Domingo German (1-4, 5.32) who gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a win over the Rays on Thursday. It was his first victory of the season, so suffice it to say I’m not reading too much into the single decent performance. Note that German is a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 5.40 ERA at home to this point. The Mariners are 46-26 this year, while New York is 46-21. These teams have been solid for bettors all season, but I’ll point that Seattle is already a perfect 3-0 (+4.2 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. The M’s have been tearing the cover off the ball of late, so I’m calling these line-ups a “wash.” And that then swings the value in favor of the undervalued underdog in my opinion. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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06-19-18 | Braves -107 v. Blue Jays | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (7:05 EST). The Jays have been hot at home and just swept the Nationals in a three-game interleague series. However, I think Toronto is going to stumble against the hard-hitting Braves on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Soroka (2-1, 2.57 ERA) who returned from the DL on Wednesday to face the Mets, going to to give up one hit and a walk while striking out four over 6.1 scoreless frames of work. Soroka was extremely efficient, throwing 44 of his 74 pitches for strikes. To go along with his shiny ERA, note that Soroka also sports a strong 19/5 K/W over his first four big-league starts. The home side counters with the volatile Jaime Garcia (2-5, 5.71), who most recently was rocked for four runs off four hits with four walks while striking out four over five innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Garcia has been better at home than on the road for Toronto this year, but note that he’s still a sub-par 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA in all night games. Additionally I’ll point out that Toronto is already a poor 15-19 (-1.6 units) this year against teams with winning records, while Atlanta is 15-9 (+4.2 units) this season against clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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06-19-18 | Japan v. Colombia -142 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -142 | 50 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Colombia (8:00 AM EST). Colombia had a big 2014 World Cup, dominating its Group Stage and then upsetting Uruguay in the knockout round. Colombia though would then fall to Brazil in the quarter finals. I believe Colombia can make some noise early in 2018 as well, as James Rodriguez will look to once again carry this team on his back with another brilliant performance. Rodriguez posted the goal of the tournament against Uruguay in 2014 and he also had a beauty against this very Japanese team as well. The Colombian’s took their game against Japan 4-1. Colombia drew its only international friendly, but still comes in on top form, unbeaten in four straight. Japan beat Paraguay in its final tune-up before the World Cup, but previous to that lost by identical 2-0 scores to both Switzerland and Ghana. In fact, the Japanese come in having lost four of their last six and they’ve only won one game against a team that’s in the 2018 World Cup since beating Australia more than a year ago (since then Japan has lost to Brazil, Belgium, South Korea and Switzerland.) Rodriguez and company can smell the blood in the water. Note that Rodriguez was the top goal scorer in qualifying with six. Simply put, this line could easily be much higher. Japan has been terrible against elite competition and I think it’ll once again have its hands full here with the deep, skilled and confident Colombians. Lay the very reasonable price for the outright victory. Good luck…Larry |
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06-18-18 | Marlins v. Giants -140 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -140 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). This is one in which I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Caleb Smith (5-6, 3.75 ERA) who faced San Francisco last Wednesday and earned a no-decision for his effort after allowing three runs off eight hits while striking out four over 6.1 innings. Note that it was the fourth straight start in which he’s posted five or fewer strikeouts. Also note that Smith is just 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA on the road. Andrew Suarez (2-4, 4.92) didn’t factor into the decision as well throwing opposite Smith last week, giving up two runs off five hits and two walks while striking out three over five innings. Suarez continues to make major strides, as evidenced by his 3.31 ERA in June. Also note that he’s consistently been at his best in friendly confines with a 3.55 ERA record. San Francisco has been at its best at home as well, going 19-11 (+7.2 units). I expect the Suarez to outduel his counterpart and for the Giants to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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06-18-18 | Mets -124 v. Rockies | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (9*) (8:40 EST). Coors Field is the great equalizer when it comes to pitchers. However, I still think that Jacob DeGrom and the Mets offer great value in this spot. DeGrom (4-2, 1.55 ERA) is coming off a loss to Atlanta on Wednesday, giving up one run off seven hits while striking out seven over seven innings. The Mets took two of three from the Diamondbacks over the weekend and I think they’re going to finally give their ace some support here. Note that DeGrom also owns an elite 1.01 WHIP and impressive 113/23 K/W over 87.1 innings. Also note that he’s 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (4-1, 4.48) who gave up one run off six hits while striking out six over seven innings against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Anderson has looked good of late, but note that he owns the elevated 5.14 ERA at home thus far. I’ll point out as well that New York is already 4-1 (+2.4 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Colorado is only 4-6 (-2.3 units) at home with a money line set between +125 to -125. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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06-18-18 | Cardinals -103 v. Phillies | 5-6 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 1 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8*) (7:05 EST). Despite throwing on the road, I think that Miles Mikolas and the Cards are getting little respect in this particular matchup. Mikolas (7-2, 2.43 ERA) most recently struck out five and walked zero and gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to San Diego on Tuesday. Mikolas has lost two of his last three starts, but note that he’s posted a quality effort in each. And despite the win/loss record of late, note that he still holds the sharp ERA, to go along with an elite 0.96 WHIP and 63/9 K/W over 85.1 innings of work. Mikolas will now look to get back on track here and improve upon his 3-0, 3.41 ERA road record. The home side counters with Nick Pivetta (4-6, 4.25), who gave up six runs off eight hits and three walks while striking out five over five innings against the Rockies on Wednesday. Pivetta comes in with zero momentum as he’s now lost four straight and he hasn’t made it out of the fifth frame in any of them. Pivetta’s strikeout numbers remain solid, but his peripherals suggest that further regression is imminent. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 5.23 ERA in all night games. I think Mikolas will easily out duel the struggling Pivetta and all things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Cards. Good luck…Larry |
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06-18-18 | South Korea +325 v. Sweden | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Korea Republic (8:00 AM EST). I think these teams are much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Sweden had a decent qualifier, knocking off Italy and preventing the 2006 champs from making the trip to Russia. But without Zlatan Ibrahimovic for the first time in a major competition, I believe Sweden will in fact struggle in this one. Some may argue the team has become stronger after the super-star has left, but I think they’re going to stumble on the World stage without his direction. Note that Sweden finished second in its qualifying group for the World Cup entry. Sweden is still loaded with talent, but South Korea is too. The Korean’s will once again be leaning heavily on Son Heung-min, who put together an amazing season for Tottenham this year with 18 goals in all competitions. Son is 25 and in his prime and he’ll look to carry his hungry team to the early upset on Monday morning. Both teams come in off poor international friendly action, so neither has the advantage in that department. Projected line-ups for both teams: Sweden: Andreas Granqvist will partner with Manchester United’s Victor Lindelof at the back. Sebastian Larsson, recently departed from England, will partner Albin Ekdal in the midfield. Emil Forsberg will be looked upon to create chances for forwards Marcus Berg and Ola Toivonen. Korea: RB Salzburg’s Hwang Hee-chan will play alongside star player Son Heung-min upfront. Note that they have quality on the flanks, with Lee Jae-sung one of the best players in the K-League, and the exciting 20-year-old Lee Seung-woo of Hellas Verona in Italy. Swansea’s Ki Sung-yueng is another major figure on this team, tasked for taking care of the mid-field. Three of the back four are key players in the K-League, with Jang-Hyun-soo playing in Japan for FC Tokyo. Sweden is a good team, but it’s struggled to score goals. Korea hasn’t been lighting up the score-board either, but with Son on its side, it has much more than just a “punchers chance” in my opinion. In a contest between two very evenly matched sides, the value absolutely swings to the big dog in this one. Play on South Korea. Good luck…Larry |
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06-17-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 106 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Quintana (6-4, 4.09 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and three walks with two K’s over six innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Monday. Quintana though continues to struggle with consistency, as he hasn’t completed six innings in consecutive starts since the start of the year. The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (3-2, 2.96) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings in a victory over San Diego on Monday. Flaherty hasn’t been perfect this year either, but he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd with a 2-1, 3.38 ERA thus far. Additionally I’ll point out that the Cubs are a poor 36-40 (-5.8 units) in their last 76 when on the road and the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while St. Louis is already 8-4 (+3.6 units) this season at home with a money line between +125 and -125. I like Flaherty to out duel the “on again, off again” Quintana and for the home side to deliver the goods at the end of the night. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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06-17-18 | Red Sox -124 v. Mariners | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (4:10 EST). A couple of competent hurlers collide in the finale of this three game set and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side. Boston hands the ball to the red hot Eduardo Rodriguez (8-1, 3.64 ERA) who gave up two runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out four over 5.2 innings in a 6-4 victory over Baltimore on Tuesday. Rodriguez has had difficulty going deep into games, but the victory marked his fifth straight. Rodriguez will now look to improve upon his 3-0, 3.68 ERA road record. Seattle counters with Mike Leake (7-3, 4.26) who gave up one run off four hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. After a shaky start to the 2018 campaign, Leake has looked much better of late, but I still think he’s in over his head in this matchup. As note that Seattle is a poor 60-67 (-15.8 units) in its last 127 against left-handed starters. Also note that Boston is a superb 40-15 (+16.4 units) against right-handed starters this season. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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06-17-18 | Mets +131 v. Diamondbacks | 5-3 | Win | 131 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (4:10 EST). Clay Buchholz has been better than expected for the Diamondbacks in his limited time, but I think that Zach Wheeler and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup. Wheeler (2-5, 4.98 ERA) will be eager to get back on track here after allowing six runs over six innings in a loss to the Braves on Tuesday. Previous to this “dud,” Wheeler had posted back-to-back quality efforts though, so I’m not reading too much into the lacklustre performance. Note that Wheeler owns a respectable 3.91 ERA in all day games this year. Buchholz (1-1, 3.21) comes in off a poor showing as well, allowing six runs off seven hits over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Tuesday. As mentioned off the top, Buchholz has been a pleasant surprise for the D-Backs to this point, but clearly his early numbers are unsustainable and suffice it to say, I believe the veteran takes another step back here. Arizona is 23-14 at home this year, while New York is only 14-17 on the road. I’ll point out though that Arizona’s weakness this season has been its play in all day games, going only 10-13 (-3 units) in such situations. I expect Wheeler to out duel his overachieving counterpart and I look for the Mets to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Good luck…Larry |
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06-17-18 | Reds v. Pirates -135 | 8-6 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (1:35 EST). Cincinnati sends Anthony DeSclafani (1-1, 5.40 ERA) to the hill in the finale of this three game set. DeSclafani most recently allowed three runs off ten hits with two walks over five innings in a win over the Cardinals on Sunday. This was his second start since September 2016, as he’d be rocked for four runs over four innings in his season debut previous. So which DeSclafani shows up this afternoon? The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (2-1, 2.16) who gave up three runs (two earned) off five hits with six K’s in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Monday. Musgrove needed only 88 pitches to get through the six frames and he’d also go on to generate ten swinging strikes with his off-speed pitches on just 29 offerings. Musgrove has to be feeling confident here as he’s 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA at home so far this season. I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is now 17-14 (+4.9 units) against the division this year, while Cincinnati is just 7-23 (-15 units) in the same position. When taking into account all of the above factors, I do indeed believe we’re getting great value on Musgrove and the home side. Lay this reasonable price. Good luck…Larry |
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06-17-18 | Serbia -104 v. Costa Rica | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Serbia (8:00 AM EST). Costa Rica hadn’t been to a World Cup in 12 years before qualifying back in 2014. It drew a tough opening group with Italy, England and Uruguay and not many expected it to last very long. The Costa Rican’s though would go on to beat both Italy and Uruguay, while drawing with England to take the top spot in the Group Stage, before then getting out of the knock out round with a win over Greece. It was a dream run for Costa Rica, however I believe it’s going to have a much more difficult time of it this time around. Costa Rica most recently lost to both Belgium and England in international friendlies and it comes in having lost six of its last eight matches overall. Serbia has had mixed results the last few years as well, but it managed to qualify behind a plethora of talent, including players like Branislav Ivanovic, Aleksandar Kolarov, and Milos Veljkovic are in their ranks, along with Luke Milivojevic, Dusan Tadic, Marko Grujic, Nemanja Matic, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Adem Llajic, and Aleksandar Mitrovic further up the field. Serbia most recently hammered Bolivia 5-1, with Mitrovic potting a hat-trick. Serbia now has six wins, one draw and three defeats out of its last ten matches and I believe that “recent form” displayed by both teams absolutely swings the value to the Serbs. Costa Rica’s back line, which was a strength during its improbable 2014 World Cup campaign, has now become a liability, allowing eight goals in its last ten matches. And that’s not good news facing a Serbian side which has scored in nine of its last ten games, while conceding five over that span. When you add it all up, Serbia is definitely undervalued in this matchup in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
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06-16-18 | Giants v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers (8:15 EST). Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Madison Bumgarner (0-1, 4.76 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off six hits and one walk over 5.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to Miami on Monday. Of the 91 pitches he threw, only 55 percent went for strikes. Clearly Bumgarner is still trying to shake off some rust after returning from injury. Note that he’s been at his worst on the road so far in his limited time back with a ballooned 6.75 ERA as well. The home side counters with Alex Wood (1-5, 4.43) who had to leave his last start against these very Giants early with a hamstring issue. Wood has stumbled of late after a decent start, but I think he still has the advantage in this matchup. Note that he still sports the decent 4.18 ERA at home and an even better 3.96 ERA in all night games. I’m giving Wood the slight nod in this matchup and in my opinion, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side. Great line value, play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-16-18 | Hamilton v. Calgary -7.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Calgary Stampeders (7:00 EST). Calgary is looking to take out its frustrations on someone in its opening game after being upset in the Grey Cup in each of the last two seasons. While Hamilton should improve after a disastrous 2017, I think it’s completely outclassed on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines. Somehow Toronto pulled off the 27-24 upset last year. Calgary is once again one of the favs to win it all this season, sitting around +140 to win the West, including +200 to win the Grey Cup. The Ti-Cats signed ex Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel over the offseason, but he’s not starting this game and may not even see any action whatsoever. Jeremiah Masoli is the man under center for the visitors and he had a decent showing last year with 3,177 yards, 15 TD’s and 446 rushing yards in 12 total appearances last year. Hamilton also features a trio of decent receivers in Jalen Saunders, Luke Tasker and Brandon banks. The Stamps have a significant advantage at QB with Bo Levi Mitchell. Mitchell hasn’t missed a game since 2014 and over that time he holds most of the leagues passing records. Note that when these teams played in Calgary last year, the Stampeders annihilated Hamilton by a score of 60-1. Calgary’s strength though actually lies on the defensive side of the ball, as the unit finished first in virtually every defensive statistical category there is last season. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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06-16-18 | Phillies v. Brewers -128 | 4-1 | Loss | -128 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) (4:10 EST). Here’s another one where I believe that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (3-2, 3.63 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings in a victory over these very Brewers on Sunday. Eflin has been decent of late and it’s difficult in fact to say too many negative things about him, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. The home side counters with Junior Guerra (3-4, 2.71) who gave up one run off five hits and two walks with four K’s over six innings in a no-decision against Chicago on Monday. Guerra has now posted four quality starts in a row and he has to be feeling confident here, as not only does he have a 2.79 ERA at home, but he also owns a sharp 1.99 ERA in all day contests. Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is a poor 13-19 (-4 units) on the road, while Milwaukee is 20-12 (+7.8 units) in front of the home town crowd. I like Guerra to continue his dominance at home. Lay the very reasonable price. Play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-16-18 | Reds v. Pirates -120 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8*) (4:05 EST). Here’s a matchup in which I feel that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Luis Castillo (4-7, 5.79 ERA), who was rocked for five runs with three walks over six innings in a loss to St. Louis on Saturday. Castillo has now given up 15 home runs over 73 innings and to go along with his sub-par ERA, note that he also sports a poor 1.42 WHIP. Also note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road all year with a 2-4, 6.64 ERA record to this point. The home side counters with Ivan Nova (3-5, 4.68) who returned from injury to face the Cubs on Sunday, looking sharp by allowing one earned run off four hits and two walks while striking out eight over 5.2 innings in the victory. Nova showed no signs of rust whatsoever and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. Note that while he’s a disappointing 0-3 at home so far this season, he does own a very respectable 3.96 ERA in front of the home town crowd (is also 3-2 with a 3.53 ERA in all day games.) Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Castillo has another long afternoon ahead of him. Great price, play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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06-16-18 | Rockies -112 v. Rangers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (9*) (4:05 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (6-6, 3.68 ERA) who gave up four runs off four hits while striking out eight over six innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Freeland would go on to post 15 swinging strikes and eight K’s overall. To go along with his 1.24 WHIP, note that Freeland owns the very respectable 3.99 ERA on the road. The home side goes with Mike Minor (4-4, 5.65 ERA) who most recently gave up three earned runs off six hits and one walk while striking out four over six innings in a no decision against Houston Saturday. Note that it was Minor’s first quality start though since May 3rd. Also note that he’s 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA in all day games this season. Additionally I’ll point out that Colorado is 22-16 (+12.1 units) on the road this year, while Texas is only 13-23 (-9.2 units) at home. All things considered, I believe this line could in fact be a lot larger. Great value, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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06-16-18 | Nigeria v. Croatia -133 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Croatia (3:00 EST). This is an important game for both teams, as each is expected to fight for the No. 2 spot in Group D, with Argentina the hands on favorite to capture the top position. The Croats though feature a bunch of world-class talent, including Ivan Rakitic and Luka Modric. Iceland surprised the qualifying round that Croatia was in, but the Croats still locked down the second spot. Since then Croatia has two wins and two losses in international friendly action, losing to Brazil and Peru, but prevailing over Mexico and Senegal. If history is any precedence, then the Croats have to be loving their chances in this matchup as well, as they have an excellent record against teams outside of the two leading confederations (South America and Europe), having won eight of their last ten against such foes. In 2014 Croatia faced its first ever African team in the qualifiers and it would go on for the convincing 4-0 win over Cameroon. Nigeria punched its ticket to Russia early with a 1-0 win over Zambia all the way back in October. The Super Eagles though come in with zero momentum/confidence as they’ve lost four straight friendlies, including a 2-1 setback to England at Wembly Stadium. Nigeria will be leaning heavily on Victor Moses, who has 11 goals in 34 matches for his country. I’ll point out though that since 1998 the Super Eagles have won just once in their last 12 World Cup matches. Not only that, but Nigeria has just five goals in its last eight games. The Super Eagles also feature an inexperienced net minder in Francis Uzoho, after Vincent Enyeama retired recently. Recent form displayed by both sides suggests that we are definitely getting “great line value” on Croatia. Good luck…Larry |
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06-15-18 | Phillies v. Brewers -128 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (5-4, 2.97 ERA) who was most recently rocked for five runs off four hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Saturday. Arrieta has now allowed ten runs over his last two starts and things aren’t going to get any easier for the veteran in this tough venue tonight. The home side counters with Brent Suter (6-4, 4.61) who gave up three runs off four hits and a walk with five K’s in a win over these very Phillies on Saturday. Suter has been getting progressively better of late and I look for the southpaw to carry that momentum over here. Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 13-19 (-4 units) on the road this season, while Milwaukee is 20-12 (+7.8 units) at home so far. When taking into account all of the above factors, I actually feel that this line could be a lot higher. Great value, play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-15-18 | Marlins +135 v. Orioles | 2-0 | Win | 135 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:05 EST). Neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence, but that said I absolutely feel that Jose Urena and the hungry Marlins have much more than just a “punchers chance” in the opener of this interleague series. Urena (1-8, 4.59 ERA) has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate so far this season. Most recently Urena gave up three runs off six hits with no walk and five K’s over six innings in a loss to San Diego on Sunday. It was the second time in his last seven starts that he’s avoided giving up a walk and he’s now allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last nine trips to the hill. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.94 ERA in all night games to this point as well. The home side counters with the volatile Kevin Gausman (3-5, 4.58) who gave up three earned runs off nine hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Jays on Saturday. Previous to that decent outing Gausman had been rocked for 13 runs spanning eight innings. Note that he’s just 3-3 with a 4.71 ERA at home. I think Urena’s under-the-radar progression carries over here in this favorable interleague contest, while recent form displayed by Gausman suggests that he’s in line for another long night. Great value on the underdog in this one. Play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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06-15-18 | Nationals -132 v. Blue Jays | 5-6 | Loss | -132 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST). Ultimately I believe that this line could in fact be a lot larger, considering the talent discrepancy, both on the mound and at the plate. The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (6-2, 2.65 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Giants on Saturday, giving up four runs off six hits over 3.1 innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision. Performances like that though have been few and far between for Gonzalez, who still owns the sharp 2.65 ERA, to go along with a super 1.31 WHIP and a 75/32 K/W over 74.2 innings of work. Note as well that Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with the volatile Aaron Sanchez (3-5, 4.33) who gave up two runs over six innings with four walks in a no-decision against the Orioles on Saturday. To go along with his pedestrian ERA, note that Gonzalez also has a 1.50 WHIP and just 58 K’s over 72.2 innings of work. Note as well that Sanchez is 0-2 with a 4.03 ERA at home this year. Additionally I’ll point out that Washington is a super 22-16 (+2.9 units) this season in all night games, while Toronto is just 17-22 (-6.2 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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06-15-18 | Spain v. Portugal +348 | 3-3 | Loss | -100 | 174 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Portugal (11:00 AM EST). This is a highly anticipated game in the Group B stage, as “neighbours” Spain and Portugal get ready to battle. Each team will be laying everything on the line to secure the victory today, but with the best player on the planet on their team, I firmly believe that Portugal has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Their recent history has in fact been very even, with Portugal claiming two victories and Spain three. The last time they played Spain won 4-2 on penalties after a goalless 120 minutes in the 2012 Euro semis. For the record, both teams would win their World Cup qualifying groups as well. Portugal would lose just once out of ten qualifiers. The Portuguese have played four friendlies since then as well and gone 3-1. Spain comes in on an 18 game unbeaten streak across all qualifiers/friendlies/tournaments, winning 13 of them. They’d win nine of their qualifiers, while drawing on the other. Spain has been an offensive juggernaut of late, but Portugal has kept a clean sheet in four of its last six games across all competitions. Both team are solid at the back and while Spain may have the upper hand over offensively, as mentioned off the top with Christiano Ronaldo leading the way, Portugal will always have a “shot” in any game that its playing in. Spain is deep with talent, and it will be leaning heavily on Atletico Madrid man Diego Costa. But at the end of the day, I simply feel that Spain is overpriced here. Portugal has the depth, experience and talent to “steal” this one, and that’s exactly what I expect to happen here. Play on Portugal. Good luck…Larry |
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06-14-18 | Edmonton -7 v. Winnipeg | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Edmonton Eskimos (8:30 EST). Edmonton would eliminate Winnipeg 39-32 in the Western semi-final last year and while “revenge” may be an angle some handicappers will play up here, I think the loss of the Blue Bombers’ staring QB will prove to be too much for the home side to handle on Opening night. Winnipeg actually won both regular season games against Edmonton last year, before the Eskimos finally exacted their revenge in the playoffs. The Esks did win seven games in a row to start the 2017 season though, ultimately finishing 12-6 during the regular season. The Esks have arguably the best QB in the CFL in Mike Reilly, who is just the sixth pivot in league history to post back-to-back 5,000 passing yard campaigns. Reilly is the beneficiary of likely the best offensive line in the league as well, giving up a CFL low 29 sacks on the season last year. Blue Bombers’ QB Matt Nichols went down with injury in practice and he’ll now be out of the line-up for at least 4 to 6 weeks. That means that rookie Chris Streveler is being thrust into the spot light on Opening Night of the CFL to make his first career start. Winnipeg has plenty of talent, but clearly there’s a big question mark to open the new campaign at the most important position. I believe Reilly and the Eskimos will take full advantage of this fact and put the foot on the pedal from start to finish. Lay the points, play on Edmonton. Good luck…Larry |
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06-14-18 | Rays +145 v. Yankees | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Plays is on the Tampa Bay Rays (8*) (7:05 EST). For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. In this case, I believe that the red hot Blake Snell and the hungry Rays have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup. Snell (8-3, 2.30 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out one over six innings in a victory over Seattle on Saturday. Snell’s current numbers rank him among the best in the American League right now and note that he’s 6-1 with a 1.24 ERA in all night games this year. The home side counters with Domingo German (0-4, 5.32) who gave up three earned runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Saturday. German has impressive strikeout numbers, but note that he’s still 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA at home and 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in all night games this season. As mentioned off the top, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. And when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Snell is going to be able to carry over his momentum, while all signs point to the Yanks stumbling with German on the mound and after their highly publicized interleague series that finished with the Nationals yesterday. Play on Tampa. Good luck…Larry |
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06-14-18 | Indians -144 v. White Sox | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8*) (2:10 EST). Ultimately I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.31 ERA) who gave up two earned runs over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to the Tigers on Saturday. Clevinger though has been as solid as Cleveland could possibly ask for this season and he has to be feeling confident here as he’s already a sharp 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in all day games. The home side counters with the volatile Carlos Rodon (0-1, 3.60) who gave up four runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to Boston in his season debut on Saturday. Rodon looked decent with seven K’s, but clearly the sample size is just too small to get an accurate read on the southpaw to this point. Note though that he was 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA in all day games last season. Additionally I’ll point out that Cleveland is already 17-11 (+2.5 units) in all day games this year, while Chicago is already just 8-24 (-14 units) in all day games. All things considered, I think this line could in fact be much larger. That swings the value to the under-priced favorite. Play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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06-14-18 | Saudi Arabia v. Russia UNDER 2.25 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Saudi Arabia/Russia (8:00 AM EST). Host Russia has the odds stacked against it to advance very far in the World Cup, currently ranked 65th in the FIFA World rankings. I think it’s going to have a few “butterflies” here as it looks for its opponent to make the first mistake. With each side playing to a “war of attrition,” I do indeed expect a classic lower-scoring affair in the opener of the 2018 World Cup. The place will be rocking at the Luzhniki Stadium. Russia isn’t even favored to win Group A (Uruguay is), but it’s a significant favorite here against hopeful Saudi Arabia. Last year Russia hosted the Confederations Cup and it beat New Zealand, before then losing to Portugal and Mexico. Since then though it’s beat South Korea 4-1, while drawing with a talented Spain side. Russia though drew an automatic bid for being host. Saudi Arabia is ranked higher than Russia in the FIFA rankings. The Saudis would end a 12 year absence from the World Cup after a spectacular goal by Fahad Al Muwallad vs. Japan in the Asian prelims. One player to keep your eyes on for Saudi Arabia is Mohammad Al-Sahlawi, who’d finished with 16 goals in the Asian qualifier. Russia enters having lost seven friendlies though and Saudi Arabia will be confident that it can in fact pull of the upset here. Both teams have talent. Both teams have a lot of question marks as well though heading in. As mentioned off the top, I believe each team will be playing it “cautious” to open, looking for the other side to make the first mistake. And in a scenario like that, everything points to a lower-scoring “under” in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
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06-13-18 | Reds v. Royals -101 | 7-0 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Mahle (4-6, 4.33 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Thursday. Of his 13 starts this year, Mahle has now completed six frames just five times. Note that he owns a 2-3, 4.79 ERA in all night games thus far. The home side counters with Jason Hammel (2-6, 5.12) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the Athletics on Thursday. Hammel has looked a lot better of late, allowing just seven earned runs over his last 24.1 innings and I think the veteran carries that momentum over here into another solid outing. Neither team or starter instills much confidence, but recent form displayed by Hammel suggests that he’s about to “get off the schneid” in a big way tonight. Play on the Royals. Good luck…Larry |
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06-13-18 | Twins v. Tigers +135 | 2-5 | Win | 135 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST). I believe that Matt Boyd and the hungry home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup on their home field. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios (7-5, 3.66 ERA) who looks poised for a letdown here in my estimation after allowing two earned runs over nine innings in a victory over the light-hitting White Sox on Thursday. Berrios has for the most part been as solid as Minnesota could possibly ask for, but note that he does enter with a sub-par 2-3, 4.55 ERA on the road to this point. Boyd (4-4, 3.20) comes in off a strong outing himself, giving up two earned runs off four hits, while striking out six over 6.1 innings against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Thursday. Note that Boyd has been especially tough on the opposition at home as well by going 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is a horrible 11-17 (-5.4 units) on the road this season, while Detroit is 21-16 (+11.4 units) at home. Everything points to a minor upset. Play on the Tigers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-13-18 | Giants -110 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (7:10 EST). I think the Giants will salvage the final game of this three-game set. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Suarez (2-4, 5.06 ERA) who most recently gave up four runs off six hits and one walk while striking out five in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Nationals on Friday. While his ERA is clearly nothing to write home about, note that he does own a sharp 47/9 K/W over 48 innings and his opposition is hitting only .256 off him. The home side counters with Caleb Smith (5-6, 3.70) who gave up four hits over 5.1 scoreless innings in a victory over the soft-hitting Padres on Friday. Smith has been solid this season, but note that the Marlins are a poor 7-11 (-2.1 units) this year against southpaws, while San Fran is 13-12 (+3.8 units) in the same position. I look for the “hungrier” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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06-13-18 | Mets -113 v. Braves | 0-2 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Mets (12:10 EST). Ultimately I believe that this line should in fact be a lot larger considering the talent discrepancy on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (4-1, 1.57 ERA) who struck out eight and walked two in a loss to the Yankees on Friday, in the end giving up three runs over eight innings of work. To go along with his sharp 1.57 ERA, note that DeGrom also sports an elite 1.01 WHIP (additionally note that he’s been at his best on the road so far with a 2-0, 1.57 ERA record thus far.) The home side counters with Mike Soroka (1-1, 3.68) who returns to the rotation after a short stint on the DL. The 20-year old made two minor-league re-hab starts and he has been given the green light to go on Wednesday afternoon. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Soroka comes into this one with question marks still concerning his health, while DeGrom is arguably the best pitcher in the entire league right now. All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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06-12-18 | Astros -127 v. A's | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Houston Astros (10:05 EST). I feel that the hard-throwing Lance McCullers and the defending champs could in fact be a lot larger favorites in this particular matchup. McCullers (7-3, 3.94 ERA) gave up two earned runs off four hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings in a victory over the Red Sox on Thursday. McCullers has to be feeling confident here that he can keep the momentum rolling as he’s already dominated the A’s twice this year, giving up two runs while striking out ten over 12 innings of work. The home side counters with Daniel Mengden (6-5, 3.45) who gave up six runs off five hits and three walks with three K’s over four innings in a loss to Texas on Wednesday. Of the five hits Mengden allowed, four were home runs. I’ll point out as well that Houston is 22-10 (+3.6 units) this year against the division, while Oakland is just 10-21 (-12.3 units) against divisional foes. Recent form displayed by Mengden suggests that McCullers is the correct call in this particular matchup. Lay the price, play on the Astros. Good luck…Larry |
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06-12-18 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -125 | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) (9:40 EST). Here’s another one in which I believe that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams, who was fortunate to earn a no-decision against the Dodgers on Wednesday, giving up four runs off four hits and two walks over three innings while striking out only two. Williams comes into this one struggling across the board, having allowed at least four runs in five of his last six outings. The home side counters with Clay Buchholz (1-1, 1.88) who gave up two earned runs off seven hits and one walk while striking out seven over six innings against San Francisco on Wednesday. Note that it was his third straight quality start and he now owns a sharp 21/3 K/W and a 94.9 percent strand rate. I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is already a poor 2-9 (-5.8 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Arizona is already a strong 10-6 (+1.7 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I like Buchholz to continue his progression, while recent form displayed by Williams suggests that he has another long night ahead of him here. Great value, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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06-12-18 | Indians -135 v. White Sox | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (8*) (8:10 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Adam Plutko (3-0, 3.93 ERA), who has posted a sharp 3.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and 12/5 K/W over 18.1 innings for the Tribe this year. He faced the White Sox in his latest victory back on May 28th and was rocked for five runs over five innings, but the rookie was staked to an early insurmountable lead and he’d aggressively pepper the strike zone after that, which contributed to the higher runs allowed in that one. The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (1-7, 4.92) who was rocked for seven earned runs off eight hits (including three home runs) in a loss to the Twins on Thursday. Shields has for the most part been a big disappointment once again this season and he comes into this one sporting a poor 57/33 K/W over 82.1 innings of work. Note that he’s 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA at home thus far. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 19-10 (+2 units) against teams with losing records, while Chicago is a horrible 7-20 (-7 units) against teams with winning records this year. This is a matchup which highly favors the hard-hitting visiting side and this line could easily be larger. Play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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06-12-18 | Cubs v. Brewers -110 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8*) (8:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be ruled out as a deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 3.86 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and seven walks over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to Philadelphia on Thursday. Chatwood would need 107 pitches to post just 14 outs and he now sports an atrocious 53/56 K/W over 58.1 innings of work. The home side counters with Chase Anderson (4-5, 4.57) who gave up three runs off four hits and three walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to Cleveland on Wednesday. Anderson comes into this one with a lackluster 43/26 K/W, but note that he’s been solid in all night games with a 4-2, 3.98 ERA. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is a poor 34-38 (-5.8 units) in its last 72 on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while Milwaukee is already 18-11 (+6.8 units) this season in front of the home town crowd. Chatwood’s inconsistencies come back to bite him here and Anderson does just enough to secure the victory for the home side. Play on Milwaukee. Good luck…Larry |
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06-11-18 | Angels -109 v. Mariners | 3-5 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Angels (10:10 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.12 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Royals on Tuesday, going nine scoreless while walking one and striking out four. Heaney is limiting his opposition to a .218 batting average and to go along with his respectable ERA, he also owns an elite 58/19 K/W over 60.2 innings of work. The home side counters with Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 2.94) who gave up three runs off seven hits and three walks over four innings in a fortune no-decision against the Astros on Wednesday. LeBlanc has been decent in his limited time as a starter (expected to move back to the bullpen shortly), but I think the book is still out on the southpaw, as the sample size simply remains too small at this point to get a completely accurate read. For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Heaney should be able to continue his mid-season progression, while everything points to another long-night for LeBlanc. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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06-11-18 | Cubs v. Brewers +118 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Situational Stunner on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST). I think that Junior Guerra and the hard-hitting home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Quintana (6-4, 4.20 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits with two walks over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Previous to this strong outing though, Quintana had been rocked for four runs over 4.1 innings. Guerra (3-4, 2.83) comes in off his third straight quality start most recently allowing three runs off seven hits with one walk over six innings in a loss to Cleveland on Tuesday, also going on to strike out five. Over his last three outings Guerra has posted a sparkling 15/1 K/W and suffice it to say I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to carry that momentum over here. Milwaukee dropped its finale against Philadelphia yesterday, but it’s definitely woken up at the plate of late. Chicago has struggled with offensive consistency and I think that comes back to bite it again here as well. Play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-11-18 | Red Sox -119 v. Orioles | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:05 EST). I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value in this matchup. The Red Sox hand the ball to Steven Wright (2-0, 1.57 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Detroit on Tuesday, allowing two hits and three walks while striking out six over seven scoreless in the victory. Wright is expected to see extended time in the rotation with Drew Pomeranz out with injury and note that he’s 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA in all night contests thus far as a starter. The home side counters with the volatile Dylan Bundy (4-7, 4.04) who comes in off a strong outing as well against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing three hits and three walks over seven scoreless. Bundy has looked better of late after a stretch of futility, but he’s still just 2-4 with a 4.78 ERA at home and an atrocious 1-6 with a ballooned 7.68 ERA in all night games. I’ll point out as well that Boston is 36-14 (+14.6 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Baltimore is just 11-30 (-18.4 units) in the same position. I like Wright to at the very least match pace with the improving Bundy, but for the Red Sox’ big bats to do the rest. All things considered, a great price. Play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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06-10-18 | Braves +139 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Atlanta Braves (4:10 EST). Atlanta held on for a 5-3 win last night and I think it offers great value as an underdog on Sunday afternoon as well. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (7-1, 2.49 ERA), who comes in off back-to-back strong outings, most recently going six scoreless while striking out four in a victory over San Diego on Tuesday. So far the southpaw has posted scoreless outings five times this year, going at least six frames in each of those. Note that Newcomb’s .201 batting average ties him for fourth best in the NL. I’ll also point out that he’s been at his best on the road with a 5-0, 1.79 ERA to this point. The home side counters with Ross Stripling (4-1, 1.52) who comes in off a strong outing as well, going five scoreless in a victory over the Pirates on Tuesday. Over his last six starts Stripling has allowed just five runs. I’ll point out though that the Dodgers are a poor 2-7 in their last nine after scoring three runs or less in their previous outing, while Atlanta is 15-5 (+13.6 units) in all day games. LA has struggled with offensive consistency of late and I think Newcomb will take advantage. Play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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06-10-18 | Diamondbacks +108 v. Rockies | Top | 8-3 | Win | 108 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9*) 3:10 EST. I had a free play on the Diamondbacks last night and they’d come from behind in the latter frames for a convincing 12-7 victory over the sliding Rockies and in my opinion, all signs point to another victory in Game 3 for the hard-hitting visiting side. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to Zack Godley (5-5, 5.12 ERA) who will look to return to form after allowing seven runs off five hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Giants on Monday. Godley has struggled of late, but he does have the track record and pedigree to get things turned around. Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland (6-5, 3.48), who gave up three runs off nine hits and a walk over 6.2 innings in a win over Cincinnati on Tuesday. Freeland has looked decent of late, but I’ll point out that his team is now just 11-18 (-12.6 units) this year at home. I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 15-8 (+8.8 units) this year against left-handed starters. Momentum can be a very real, almost tangible factor at times and the Diamondbacks enter this one with a lot of it. I like Godley to bounce back and for Arizona to build off yesterday’s win. Good luck…Larry |
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06-10-18 | Brewers v. Phillies -101 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (8*) 1:35 EST. The Phillies have lost back-to-back games against the Brewers in blowout fashion, but I think they’ll bounce back in the final contest of this three-game series. The visitors hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (2-0, 6.05 ERA) who is being called up from the minors to make this spot start. Woodruff has split time as a reliever and starter in a few appearances this season for the Brewers, but he’s so far struggled on the road with a ballooned 7.30 ERA. The home side counters with Zach Eflin (2-2, 3.74), who comes in off a dominant effort over the Cubs on Tuesday, allowing one run off eight hits and a walk while striking out two over 7.2 innings in the eventual victory on Tuesday. Eflin has to be feeling confident that he can build off that performance, as so far he’s been solid at home with a 3.97 ERA. I think the Brewers leave town satisfied to take two of three, well everything points to the home side salvaging the final game in this favorable matchup on the mound. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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06-10-18 | Cardinals -137 v. Reds | 3-6 | Loss | -137 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (1:10 EST). The Cards held on for a 6-4 win yesterday afternoon and I think they offer ridiculous value in this matchup as well. The visitors hand the ball to ace Carlos Martinez (3-2, 1.83 ERA) who returned from the DL against the Marlins on Tuesday, allowing two runs off four hits while striking out five over four innings in what turned out to be a shaky no-decision. With that awkward start under his belt though, I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to get back on track and continue his progression. Note that Martinez is a stellar 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Anthony Desclafani (0-1, 7.20) who gave up four runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Tuesday. It was his first major league start since September 28th, 2016 and suffice it to say, further regression/struggles appear imminent in this tough matchup. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis has dominated in this spot all year, going 7-3 (+3.2 units) as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati has been an absolute train wreck by going 1-7 (-5.7 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Cards. Good luck…Larry |
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06-10-18 | Padres v. Marlins -114 | 3-1 | Loss | -114 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (8*) 1:10 EST. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Clayton Richard (4-6, 4.67 ERA) who allowed three runs off six hits over seven innings in a victory over the Braves on Monday. Richard has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Note that he’s consistently been at his worst on the road though with a 2-3, 6.26 ERA record thus far. The home side counters with Jose Urena (1-7, 4.60) who finally got off the schneid with a victory against the Cardinals on Tuesday, allowing four runs and a walk while striking out three over five innings. Urena’s win/loss record is not indicative of his overall performance this season and I think he’s going to build off his first win. I’ll point out as well that Miami is now 4-1 in its last five against clubs with losing records, while San Diego is just 11-13 in the same position overall this season. I look for Miami to bounce back after yesterday’s close 5-4 defeat. Play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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06-09-18 | Yankees v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mets on the run-line (7:15 EST). My MLB GAME OF THE MONTH came up short with the Mets last night, but I think that the home side battles tough on Saturday and at the very least, keeps this one close enough to cover with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Domingo German (0-4, 5.44 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits and two walk over 6.2 innings in a loss to Detroit on Monday. German has been a disaster of late, giving up 19 earned runs over 21 innings spanning his last four starts. The home side counters with Steven Matz (2-4, 3.42) who gave up two runs off five hits and two walks while striking out seven over seven frames in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Unlike his counterpart today, Matz has gotten progressively better of late, allowing just runs over his last 16 frames of work. To go along with his decent ERA, Matz also sports a respectable 1.23 WHIP and has 48 K’s over 52.2 innings of work. In a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra innings, I’m laying this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs. Play on the Mets on the run-line. Good luck…Larry |
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06-09-18 | Mariners +129 v. Rays | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Seattle Mariners (4:10 EST). I had a play on the red hot Mariners last night and I believe they offer great value as a slight dog on Saturday afternoon as well. The visitors hand the ball to Felix Hernandez (6-4, 5.33 ERA) who comes in off a gem against these very Rays on Sunday, scattering five hits over eight frames and striking out seven with one walk. While his ERA is nothing to write home about, his 62/29 K/W is more than acceptable and his 4.01 ERA in all night contests is decent as well. The home side counters with Blake Snell (7-3, 2.36) who comes in off a strong outing as well against the Mariners, giving up two hits and striking out 12 with a walk over six innings. Snell has been fantastic this season and he seems to be getting better with every start. It’s hard to say anything negative about Snell, but after going 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA last year, regression at some point does seem imminent. Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle is already a superb 13-8 (+1.3 units) against southpaws this year, while Tampa is just 18-23 (-6.7 units) against right-handed starters. I think that the Mariners continue to build momentum and I look for them to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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06-09-18 | Brewers v. Phillies -123 | 12-3 | Loss | -123 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Philadelphia Phillies (1:05 EST). I like the Phillies to bounce back at home this afternoon after yesterday’s setback. The visitors hand the ball to Brent Suter (5-4, 4.55 ERA) who most recently gave up two runs off three hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Suter has looked better of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still owns a poor 5.01 ERA in all “night” games this year. The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (5-3, 2.66) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up five earned runs off eight hits with no walks while striking out four over six frames in a setback to San Francisco on Sunday. Arrieta has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back in this spot though, as note that not only is he 5-2 with a 2.05 ERA in all night games this season, but he’s also 3-0 with a minuscule 0.84 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Yesterday’s humbling loss, combined with Arrieta’s dominance at home do indeed make Philadelphia the correct call in this matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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06-09-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -119 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST). I like the Jays to build off yesterday’s victory. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Kevin Gausman (3-5, 4.63 ERA) who was rocked for six runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Yanks on Saturday. Gausman has now given up 12 earned runs over his last two starts and note that he’s struggled in this spot all season by going 0-2 with a 4.54 ERA on the road and an atrocious 1-3 with a ballooned 7.99 ERA in all day games. The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez (3-5, 4.48) who gave up one run off two hits with three walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over the Tigers on Sunday. This was easily Sanchez’s best start of the year and I believe he’s going to carry that momentum over into this one. I’ll point out additionally that Baltimore is a terrible 11-29 (-17.4 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine against right-handed starters. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Blue Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +6 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:05 EST). The Golden State Warriors head into Game 4 of the NBA Finals sitting at 72-29 overall this year, while the Cleveland Cavaliers are 62-40. I had a play on Cleveland in Game 3 and it would unfortunately come up “just short.” With their backs against the wall and desperate to avoid the embarrassing sweep, I look for the Cavs to at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with what I believe to be a very healthy spread afforded to them in this “do or die” situation. What more can be said about these teams which literally hasn’t been said about a million times at this point by every sports broadcaster, handicapper or “couch surfer” over the last four years. This is the fourth straight year that these teams have met in the Finals, and while the cast of characters remains the same for the Warriors (for the most part), as LBJ goes, so goes Cleveland. Suffice it to say, the strengths and weaknesses of these teams/players is well known to even the most casual basketball fan. And so for this selection, I won’t bother breaking down individual player match ups, or re-cap the numbers/stats that the star players from each side posted in Game 3. Instead I’m focusing on the overall “situation” and some strong ATS trends that completely support this selection. It’s hard to imagine the Warriors having a “letdown” at this point of the whole thing, but there is absolutely no question whatsoever that this does indeed set up as a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors. With the knowledge that they’ll be able to “easily” wrap this one up at home in Game 5, I predict this “mental lapse” will in fact occur. The Warriors are an amazing team there is no doubt, and this is just a horrible “matchup” for James and the Cavaliers. But I think the stage is set for an upset here. (Additional supporting ATS stats added shortly) While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything finally points to a “nail-biter” in Game 4. Grab the points, play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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06-08-18 | Yankees v. Mets +109 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST). For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Clearly the Yankees have the more powerful lineup, but for this particular selection I am indeed putting my full focus onto the starting pitchers. One of these starters has been absolutely dominant from Day 1 this year, while the other continues to scuffle along, the beneficiary of great run support. Suffice it to say, I think Jacob DeGrom and the Mets offer great value in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 4.79 ERA) who earned a win against the Orioles despite giving up four runs off eight hits over 5.1 innings. Tanaka was “lucky” to receive a victory as he’d give up three solo home runs in that one. Note that he’s now given up nine homers over his last 26.2 innings of work and he’ll come into this one with a poor 2.0 HR/9. Also note that Tanaka has struggled with his consistency, as he’s completed just six innings once in his last five starts. And finally take note, while he does have a 5-0 record on the road, he owns an uninspiring 5.17 ERA away from friendly confines this season. DeGrom (4-0, 1.49) comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Cubs on Saturday, allowing one run off seven hits with two walks while striking out 13 over seven innings. To go along with his elite ERA, DeGrom also owns a superb 1.04 WHIP and a spectacular 98/21 K/W over 72.1 innings of work. Also note that he’s been very sharp at home with a 2-0, 1.42 ERA record thus far. Ultimately I think that Tanaka’s issues with the home run ball and longevity come back to bite him, while I look for DeGrom to finally get some support for once. All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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06-08-18 | Mariners -126 v. Rays | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (7:10 EST). Seattle has been rolling of late and I look for it to carry that momentum over on Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to Marco Gonzalez (6-3, 3.38 ERA) who comes in off a third straight winning decision, giving up one run off five hits with two walks while striking out six over 6.2 innings against these very Rays on Saturday. Note that Gonzalez has now allowed one earned run spanning his last 26 innings of work. Additionally note that Gonzalez has been extremely solid on the road this season with a 4-2, 3.48 ERA record. The home side counters with Wilmer Font (0-2, 9.78) who went two scoreless innings in a win over the A’s on Wednesday. Font has been given the green light to start this one as well, but note that he’ll only be in line for one or two innings of work. Additionally note that over his last five appearances he’s gone seven innings total, while posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.29 WHIP with four K’s and five walks. Font’s inability to go deep into this one is a big time detriment to the home team and I believe it opens the door for the surging Gonzalez and the red hot visiting side. Lay the price, play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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06-07-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -140 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 66 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Las Vegas Golden Knights (8:05 EST). I played on Las Vegas in its last game and while that play came up short, I do now firmly believe the the Golden Knights will stave off elimination here with their best effort of the Cup Final. Las Vegas won Game 1 by a score of 6-4, but since then it’s been all Braden Holtby, Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals. Holtby is now 15-7 with a 2.13 GAA in the postseason, while the Knights’ Marc-Andre Fleury is 13-6 with a 2.15 GAA. So far overall this season Washington is 30-23 on the road, averaging 3.08 goals and conceding 3.08 in those contests. TJ Oshie scored his eighth of the playoffs in Game 5, while Brett Connolly posted his sixth. Overall this year Vegas is 36-14 at home, averaging 3.58 goals in those contests and conceding just 2.42. The Knights will be pushing the pace of this one from start to finish, as they have just five goals over their last three games. James Neal was a bright spot in a losing cause last time out with his sixth goals, while Reilly Smith also posted a goal, his sixth of the postseason. From a trend based stand point though, this one definitely favors the home side. As note that Washington is a poor 3-8 in its last 11 after scoring five goals or more in its previous contest, while Vegas is 6-1 in its last seven after allowing five goals or more in its previous game. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Knights. Good luck…Larry |
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06-07-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -133 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors turn to David Hess (2-2, 3.47 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the Nationals on Wednesday. Hess has looked decent, but clearly he draws a tough matchup on the road North of the border. The home side goes with Jaime Garcia (2-4, 6.08), who comes in off an outing to forget against the Tigers on Friday, allowing four runs off seven hits over just 1.2 innings of work. Garcia has struggled for the most part this year, but note that he’s been at his best at home with a 1-1, 3.43 ERA record. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is a poor 2-7 in its last nine after shutting out an opponent in its previous game (just beat the Mets 1-0 yesterday.) Also note that Toronto is 6-2 in its last eight after failing to score more than two or more runs in its previous outing. I think Hess takes a step back here and I look for Garcia to settle down in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price, play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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06-07-18 | Dodgers v. Pirates -120 | 8-7 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (12:35 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Dennis Santana (1-0, 12.27 ERA) who made his big league debut at Coors Field on Saturday and who was promptly blasted for five runs off six hits over 3.2 innings of relief. Santana is expected to stay in the rotation until one of the other starters returns from injury. The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (3-4, 3.97), who comes in off a strong outing against the Cardinals on Friday, striking out six over eight scoreless with just one walk in the victory. To go along with his respectable ERA, Taillon also owns a sharp 1.16 WHIP and decent 60/18 K/W over 65.2 innings of work. Note as well that Taillon is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA at home. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by Taillon suggests that he’s in line for another productive outing here. Santana though looks poised for another “blow-up.” All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:05 EST). I had a play on Golden State in Game 1 and then I decided to skip Game 2. However Game 3 sets up perfectly for the Cavaliers, who I believe will finally get over the hump and at the very least, earn the ATS cover with the handful of points they’ve been afforded. Obviously this series could easily be tied at 1-1 if the Cavs’ JR Smith didn’t have a brain-lapse at the end of Game 1. Golden State was fortunate to earn the extra period and then LeBron James would run out of gas at the end. It was reported after that loss that the Cavaliers locker room took the setback incredibly hard. And that was evident in Game 2, as Golden State took control of the pace early and then never looked back. James posted a triple-double, but it wasn’t enough as the rest of his team struggled with consistency. However the Cavaliers are not out of it yet. Cleveland went down 2-0 to Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals, before then rebounding in a big way in Game’s 3 and 4 at home. And I’m now banking on that same “magic” working for the Cavaliers here with their backs against the wall. Stephen Curry set an all time NBA Finals record with nine 3-pointers in Game 2 and clearly the defending champs have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. But Golden State has looked susceptible this post-season, as Houston pushed the Warriors to the brink in the Western Conference Finals. I think a letdown is imminent for Golden State here. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six after back-to-back SU/ATS losses, while Golden State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 120 points or more in its previous contest. In conclusion: Only 20 teams have ever recovered from an 0-2 deficit in the playoffs to win a series but an LBJ-led team has been responsible for three of those comebacks. The latest came in the Eastern Conference Finals of 2018 against Boston, when the Celtics won the first two games at TD Garden but James and the Cavaliers took the series in seven, winning Game 6 at home and then Game in 7 in Boston. All know that the Cavs and Warriors are meeting in a fourth straight NBA Finals and Cleveland is set to host its fourth Game 3 in that span. After splitting two OT games in 2015, the Cavs won Game 3 by a 96-91 score, but then lost three in a row. The following year, trailing 0-2, the Cavaliers hammered the Warriors by 30 ponts in Game 3 and eventually won the series for their first championship, rebounding from a 3-1 deficit. Last June, the Cavaliers were on the verge of winning another Game 3 but blew a six-point lead over the final 3:09 and lost, 118-113. So here we sit, with the Cavs down 0-2 for a third straight year. Iquodala (knee) has been upgraded to questionable for Game 3 but he hasn't played since Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals and it seems like stretch to think that he'll play a significant role. Shaun Livingston made his five field-goal tries for 10 points to give Golden State a lift in the first half of Game 2, after making all four of his shots Thursday. JaVale McGee scored 12 points, making all six of his shots in his first career NBA Finals start in Game 2 as Kerr made a lineup switch that proved spot on. He is 8-of-9 shooting so far. Think those two will shoot that well here in Cleveland? Golden State's "Core Four" is devastating but not unbeatable. For Cleveland, if not now, when? Good luck…Larry |
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06-06-18 | White Sox v. Twins -165 | 5-2 | Loss | -165 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST). I think that Jake Odorizzi should in fact be a much larger fav in this particular matchup. I don’t normally lay juice of this size, but in this one I’m making an exception. The visitors hand the ball to Hector Santiago (1-2, 5.10 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits with five walks over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Brewers on Friday. Note that Santiago is 0-2 with an 8.50 ERA in all night games as well this year. Odorizzi (3-2, 4.14) also comes in off an outing to forget, getting rocked for eight runs off seven hits while striking out three and walking two in a setback to the Indians on Thursday. It was a horrible start, but I’m not going to read too much into one sub-par outing. Note that Odorizzi had given up just five earned runs over 27.1 innings previous to that “dud.” And a date at home is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, as note that he’s 2-1 with a 3.90 in friendly confines thus far. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is already a poor 7-14 (-7.4 units) against the division, while Minnesota is 11-6 (+4.6 units) in the same position. Lay the price, play on the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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06-06-18 | Rockies v. Reds +124 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST). I think the revenge-minded Reds offer great value after yesterday’s setback. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (5-6, 5.68 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits with three walks over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Giants on Wednesday. Gray has been a disaster of late, allowing 22 runs over his past four starts and failing to complete the fourth inning in two of those. Note that he’s a poor 2-3 with a 4.81 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Sal Romano (3-6, 6.00) who comes in off a win against the hard-hitting Diamondbacks on Wednesday, giving up four runs off seven hits while striking out three over five innings of work. Romano did not issue a free pass for the first time all season and I think he’s going to carry that momentum over here. Note that he’s 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA at home thus far. I’ll point out as well that Colorado is just 4-7 in its last 11 after scoring nine or more runs in its previous outing, while Cincinnati is 7-5 in its last 12 after allowing nine or more runs. I’m banking on Romano building off his last outing, while recent form suggests that Gray is once again in over his head on the road tonight. Play on the Reds. Good luck…Larry |
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06-06-18 | Yankees -135 v. Blue Jays | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST). I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side. The Yanks hand the ball to Sonny Gray (4-4, 5.50 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Orioles on Friday, allowing one run off four hits while striking out six over six innings in the eventual victory. Admittedly Gray has been hit or miss this year, but note that he’s been far better on the road (2-2, 3.67) than at home (2-2, 7.22.) The home side counters with Sam Gaviglio (2-1, 3.32) who was rocked for four runs off seven hits over six innings in a loss to the Red Sox on Wednesday. Gaviglio has now given up two home runs in two straight starts. Note that Gaviglio is expected to move back to the bullpen with the imminent return of Marcus Stroman. Additionally I’ll point out that New York is 5-2 in its last seven after scoring seven or more runs its previous outing, while Toronto is just 2-6 in its last eight after allowing seven or more runs. Look for New York to build off its convincing victory on Tuesday and lay this price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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06-06-18 | Orioles v. Mets -117 | 1-0 | Loss | -117 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Mets (1:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (3-7, 4.46 ERA) who gave up three runs off 11 hits and struck out four over six innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. Over his last 28 innings of work Bundy has given up ten runs off 20 hits, including six home runs over that stretch. The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (2-4, 5.14) who gave up two runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Friday. To go along with his poor ERA, Wheeler owns a more respectable 1.48 WHIP to go along with 57 K’s over 56 innings of work. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is a sub-par 10-13 (-4.8 units) this year against clubs with winning records, while New York is 10-7 (+1.7 units) in the same position. I’m banking on Wheeler settling down here at home and for Bundy to come up short in this tough venue. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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06-05-18 | Mariners v. Astros -124 | 7-1 | Loss | -124 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (4-1, 3.13 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and four walks with five K’s over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Rangers on Wednesday. Paxton is now 1-0 with a 3.50 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Dallas Keuchel (3-7, 3.65) who gave up four runs off seven hits with seven K’s over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Wednesday. Keuchel has pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but the southpaw will now be looking to improve upon his pedestrian 1-3, 4.06 ERA home record. I’ll point out though that Seattle is a poor 1-4 (-3.2 units) in its last five after three-game unbeaten streak, while Houston is 5-2 (+2.3 units) in its last seven following a loss. I think Keuchel gets back on track here and finds a way finally to get back into the winners circle. Great line value, play on the Astros. Good luck…Larry |
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06-05-18 | Dodgers -115 v. Pirates | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers (7:05 EST). As good as Pirates’ pitcher Joe Musgrove has been in the early going, I think he’ll finally meet his match against the Dodgers and Ross Stripling this evening. Stripling (3-1, 1.68 ERA) comes in off another strong outing against the Phillies on Wednesday, allowing one run off four hits and two walks over seven innings while striking seven in the eventual victory. Stripling now has 28 strikeouts over his last three starts and overall he has a 40/4 K/W and 1.24 ERA over 29 May innings of work. Musgrove (2-0, 0.64) most recently gave up one run off seven hits with four walks over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Wednesday. Musgrove was 7-8 with a 4.77 ERA with Houston last year and while his early numbers for the Pirates are obviously impressive, I think that regression is imminent, sooner rather than later. I’ll point out as well that LA is already 17-10 (+2.5 units) this season following a victory, while Pittsburgh is just 14-15 (-2.5 units) following a loss. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-05-18 | Rays +229 v. Nationals | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 EST). I think that Nate Eovaldi can match Max Scherzer inning for inning tonight and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the hungry dog in this matchup. Eovaldi (1-0, 0.00 ERA) made his season debut against the A’s last Wednesday after returning from Tommy John surgery and was beyond “brilliant,” giving up one walk over six no-hit frames of work. Eovaldi’s fast-ball reached 100.2 MPH and he averaged 98.5. His splitter averaged 89.9 MPH and it included three swinging strikes on just 13 offerings. The home side counters with ace Scherzer (9-1, 1.92) who went eight scoreless against the Orioles on Wednesday, striking out 12 and walking one in the victory. Previous to that he’d give up four runs off seven hits over six innings against the light-hitting Marlins. Clearly it’s impossible to say anything negative about Scherzer, so I won’t even bother trying. But as stated off the top, I do believe that the hard-throwing Eovaldi is going to bring something to the table that the hard-hitting Nationals have yet to see this season. Additionally I’ll point out that the Rays have been decent on the road for bettors this year, going 17-16 (+3 units), while the Nationals have been horrible at home, going 12-14 (-9.6 units). For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rays. Good luck…Larry |
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06-04-18 | Diamondbacks +103 v. Giants | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 EST). A couple of suddenly hot teams collide in the opener of this three-game set, but for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Arizona hands the ball to Zack Godley (5-4, 4.38 ERA) who struck out seven and walked two over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. Godley has for the most part struggled this year, but he’d come through with possibly his best outing of the season in this one. Note as well that Godley has been at his best in all “night” contests this year with a 5-2, 3.15 ERA record. The home side counters with Derek Holland (3-6, 4.94) who most recently gave up four runs off eight hits with two walks over five innings in a fortunate victory over the Rockies on Wednesday. Like his counterpart tonight, Holland has been average at best this year; note that he’s just 1-5 with a 5.93 ERA in all “night” contests. I think it’s interesting to note as well that Arizona is a sharp 17-10 (+7.6 units) this season against teams with losing records, while San Francisco is just 15-20 (-2.3 units) against clubs with winning records. I like Godley to out duel his counterpart and for the hard-hitting Diamondbacks to do the rest. Great value, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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